WorldWideScience

Sample records for total loss estimates

  1. Total Blood Loss After Transfemoral Amputations Is Twice the Intraoperative Loss

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wied, Christian; Tengberg, Peter T; Kristensen, Morten T

    2017-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Underestimation of the actual blood loss in patients undergoing nontraumatic transfemoral amputation (TFA) can impact negatively on outcome in these often frail patients, with very limited physiological reserves. The primary aim of this study is to estimate the total blood loss (TBL...

  2. Original Article Blood Loss and Influencing Factors in Primary Total ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    KIGZ

    aid the surgeon in the African region estimate the expected blood loss after total hip replacement. We conducted a study to quantify the blood loss following total hip arthroplasty and to determine the factors .... Hemoglobin European Overview (OSTHEO) study: blood management in elective knee and hip arthroplasty in ...

  3. Animal board invited review: Dairy cow lameness expenditures, losses and total cost.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolecheck, K; Bewley, J

    2018-03-20

    Lameness is one of the most costly dairy cow diseases, yet adoption of lameness prevention strategies remains low. Low lameness prevention adoption might be attributable to a lack of understanding regarding total lameness costs. In this review, we evaluated the contribution of different expenditures and losses to total lameness costs. Evaluated expenditures included labor for treatment, therapeutic supplies, lameness detection and lameness control and prevention. Evaluated losses included non-saleable milk, reduced milk production, reduced reproductive performance, increased animal death, increased animal culling, disease interrelationships, lameness recurrence and reduced animal welfare. The previous literature on total lameness cost estimates was also summarized. The reviewed studies indicated that previous estimates of total lameness costs are variable and inconsistent in the expenditures and losses they include. Many of the identified expenditure and loss categories require further research to accurately include in total lameness cost estimates. Future research should focus on identifying costs associated with specific lameness conditions, differing lameness severity levels, and differing stages of lactation at onset of lameness to provide better total lameness cost estimates that can be useful for decision making at both the herd and individual cow level.

  4. Efficient estimates of cochlear hearing loss parameters in individual listeners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fereczkowski, Michal; Jepsen, Morten Løve; Dau, Torsten

    2013-01-01

    It has been suggested that the level corresponding to the knee-point of the basilar membrane (BM) input/output (I/O) function can be used to estimate the amount of inner- and outer hair-cell loss (IHL, OHL) in listeners with a moderate cochlear hearing impairment Plack et al. (2004). According...... to Jepsen and Dau (2011) IHL + OHL = HLT [dB], where HLT stands for total hearing loss. Hence having estimates of the total hearing loss and OHC loss, one can estimate the IHL. In the present study, results from forward masking experiments based on temporal masking curves (TMC; Nelson et al., 2001...... estimates of the knee-point level. Further, it is explored whether it is possible to estimate the compression ratio using only on-frequency TMCs. 10 normal-hearing and 10 hearing-impaired listeners (with mild-to-moderate sensorineural hearing loss) were tested at 1, 2 and 4 kHz. The results showed...

  5. Tolerance to bovine clinical mastitis: Total, direct, and indirect milk losses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detilleux, J

    2018-04-01

    The objectives of this paper were to estimate direct and indirect milk losses associated with mastitis. Indirect losses, linked to indirect tolerance, are mediated by the increase in milk somatic cell count (SCC) in response to bacterial infection. Direct losses, linked to weak direct tolerance, are not mediated by the increase in SCC. So far, studies have evaluated milk loss associated with clinical mastitis without considering both components, which may lead to biased estimates of their sum; that is, the total loss in milk. A total of 43,903 test-day records on milk and SCC from 3,716 cows and 5,858 lactations were analyzed with mediation mixed models and health trajectories to estimate the amount of direct, indirect, and total milk losses after adjustment for known and potentially unmeasured (sensitivity analyses) confounding factors. Estimates were formalized under the counterfactual causal theory of causation. In this study, milk losses were mostly mediated by an increase in SCC. They were highest in the first month of lactation, when SCC were highest. Milk losses were estimated at 0.5, 0.8, and 1.1 kg/d in first, second, and third and greater parity, respectively. Two phases described how changes in milk were associated with changes in SCC: on average, one occurred before and one after the day preceding the clinical diagnosis. In both phases, changes in milk were estimated at 1 mg/d per 10 3 cells/mL. After adjusting for known confounders, cow effect accounted for 20.7 and 64.2% of the variation in milk in the first and second phases, respectively. This suggests that deviations from the resilient path were highest during the second phase of inflammation and that selection for cows more tolerant to mastitis is feasible. As discussed herein, epigenetic regulation of macrophage polarization may contribute to the variation in milk observed in the second phase. Copyright © 2018 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. A Temperature-Based Bioimpedance Correction for Water Loss Estimation During Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ring, Matthias; Lohmueller, Clemens; Rauh, Manfred; Mester, Joachim; Eskofier, Bjoern M

    2016-11-01

    The amount of total body water (TBW) can be estimated based on bioimpedance measurements of the human body. In sports, TBW estimations are of importance because mild water losses can impair muscular strength and aerobic endurance. Severe water losses can even be life threatening. TBW estimations based on bioimpedance, however, fail during sports because the increased body temperature corrupts bioimpedance measurements. Therefore, this paper proposes a machine learning method that eliminates the effects of increased temperature on bioimpedance and, consequently, reveals the changes in bioimpedance that are due to TBW loss. This is facilitated by utilizing changes in skin and core temperature. The method was evaluated in a study in which bioimpedance, temperature, and TBW loss were recorded every 15 min during a 2-h running workout. The evaluation demonstrated that the proposed method is able to reduce the error of TBW loss estimation by up to 71%, compared to the state of art. In the future, the proposed method in combination with portable bioimpedance devices might facilitate the development of wearable systems for continuous and noninvasive TBW loss monitoring during sports.

  7. Global Landslide Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Landslide Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of global landslide total economic loss risks. A process of spatially allocating Gross...

  8. Global Drought Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of global drought total economic loss risks. A process of spatially allocating Gross Domestic...

  9. Estimation of furrow irrigation sediment loss using an artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    The area irrigated by furrow irrigation in the U.S. has been steadily decreasing but still represents about 20% of the total irrigated area in the U.S. Furrow irrigation sediment loss is a major water quality issue and a method for estimating sediment loss is needed to quantify the environmental imp...

  10. Photometry-based estimation of the total number of stars in the Universe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manojlović, Lazo M

    2015-07-20

    A novel photometry-based estimation of the total number of stars in the Universe is presented. The estimation method is based on the energy conservation law and actual measurements of the extragalactic background light levels. By assuming that every radiated photon is kept within the Universe volume, i.e., by approximating the Universe as an integrating cavity without losses, the total number of stars in the Universe of about 6×1022 has been obtained.

  11. High-resolution refinement of a storm loss model and estimation of return periods of loss-intensive storms over Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. G. Donat

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available A refined model for the calculation of storm losses is presented, making use of high-resolution insurance loss records for Germany and allowing loss estimates on a spatial level of administrative districts and for single storm events. Storm losses are calculated on the basis of wind speeds from both ERA-Interim and NCEP reanalyses. The loss model reproduces the spatial distribution of observed losses well by taking specific regional loss characteristics into account. This also permits high-accuracy estimates of total cumulated losses, though slightly underestimating the country-wide loss sums for storm "Kyrill", the most severe event in the insurance loss records from 1997 to 2007. A larger deviation, which is assigned to the relatively coarse resolution of the NCEP reanalysis, is only found for one specific rather small-scale event, not adequately captured by this dataset.

    The loss model is subsequently applied to the complete reanalysis period to extend the storm event catalogue to cover years when no systematic insurance records are available. This allows the consideration of loss-intensive storm events back to 1948, enlarging the event catalogue to cover the recent 60+ years, and to investigate the statistical characteristics of severe storm loss events in Germany based on a larger sample than provided by the insurance records only. Extreme value analysis is applied to the loss data to estimate the return periods of loss-intensive storms, yielding a return period for storm "Kyrill", for example, of approximately 15 to 21 years.

  12. Magnetic resonance measurement of turbulent kinetic energy for the estimation of irreversible pressure loss in aortic stenosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyverfeldt, Petter; Hope, Michael D; Tseng, Elaine E; Saloner, David

    2013-01-01

    The authors sought to measure the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) in the ascending aorta of patients with aortic stenosis and to assess its relationship to irreversible pressure loss. Irreversible pressure loss caused by energy dissipation in post-stenotic flow is an important determinant of the hemodynamic significance of aortic stenosis. The simplified Bernoulli equation used to estimate pressure gradients often misclassifies the ventricular overload caused by aortic stenosis. The current gold standard for estimation of irreversible pressure loss is catheterization, but this method is rarely used due to its invasiveness. Post-stenotic pressure loss is largely caused by dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy into heat. Recent developments in magnetic resonance flow imaging permit noninvasive estimation of TKE. The study was approved by the local ethics review board and all subjects gave written informed consent. Three-dimensional cine magnetic resonance flow imaging was used to measure TKE in 18 subjects (4 normal volunteers, 14 patients with aortic stenosis with and without dilation). For each subject, the peak total TKE in the ascending aorta was compared with a pressure loss index. The pressure loss index was based on a previously validated theory relating pressure loss to measures obtainable by echocardiography. The total TKE did not appear to be related to global flow patterns visualized based on magnetic resonance-measured velocity fields. The TKE was significantly higher in patients with aortic stenosis than in normal volunteers (p < 0.001). The peak total TKE in the ascending aorta was strongly correlated to index pressure loss (R(2) = 0.91). Peak total TKE in the ascending aorta correlated strongly with irreversible pressure loss estimated by a well-established method. Direct measurement of TKE by magnetic resonance flow imaging may, with further validation, be used to estimate irreversible pressure loss in aortic stenosis. Copyright © 2013 American

  13. Reconciliation of Halogen-Induced Ozone Loss with the Total-Column Ozone Record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, T. G.; Plummer, D. A.; Scinocca, J. F.; Hegglin, M. I.; Fioletov, V. E.; Reader, M. C.; Remsberg, E.; von Clarmann, T.; Wang, H. J.

    2014-01-01

    The observed depletion of the ozone layer from the 1980s onwards is attributed to halogen source gases emitted by human activities. However, the precision of this attribution is complicated by year-to-year variations in meteorology, that is, dynamical variability, and by changes in tropospheric ozone concentrations. As such, key aspects of the total-column ozone record, which combines changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, remain unexplained, such as the apparent absence of a decline in total-column ozone levels before 1980, and of any long-term decline in total-column ozone levels in the tropics. Here we use a chemistry-climate model to estimate changes in halogen-induced ozone loss between 1960 and 2010; the model is constrained by observed meteorology to remove the eects of dynamical variability, and driven by emissions of tropospheric ozone precursors to separate out changes in tropospheric ozone. We show that halogen-induced ozone loss closely followed stratospheric halogen loading over the studied period. Pronounced enhancements in ozone loss were apparent in both hemispheres following the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and, in particular, Mount Pinatubo, which significantly enhanced stratospheric aerosol loads. We further show that approximately 40% of the long-term non-volcanic ozone loss occurred before 1980, and that long-term ozone loss also occurred in the tropical stratosphere. Finally, we show that halogeninduced ozone loss has declined by over 10% since stratospheric halogen loading peaked in the late 1990s, indicating that the recovery of the ozone layer is well underway.

  14. A phylogenetic approach to total evaporative water loss in mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Sant, Matthew J; Oufiero, Christopher E; Muñoz-Garcia, Agustí; Hammond, Kimberly A; Williams, Joseph B

    2012-01-01

    Maintaining appropriate water balance is a constant challenge for terrestrial mammals, and this problem can be exacerbated in desiccating environments. It has been proposed that natural selection has provided desert-dwelling mammals physiological mechanisms to reduce rates of total evaporative water loss. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between total evaporative water loss and body mass in mammals by using a recent phylogenetic hypothesis. We compared total evaporative water loss in 80 species of arid-zone mammals to that in 56 species that inhabit mesic regions, ranging in size from 4 g to 3,500 kg, to test the hypothesis that mammals from arid environments have lower rates of total evaporative water loss than mammals from mesic environments once phylogeny is taken into account. We found that arid species had lower rates of total evaporative water loss than mesic species when using a dichotomous variable to describe habitat (arid or mesic). We also found that total evaporative water loss was negatively correlated with the average maximum and minimum environmental temperature as well as the maximum vapor pressure deficit of the environment. Annual precipitation and the variable Q (a measure of habitat aridity) were positively correlated with total evaporative water loss. These results support the hypothesis that desert-dwelling mammals have lower rates of total evaporative water loss than mesic species after controlling for body mass and evolutionary relatedness regardless of whether categorical or continuous variables are used to describe habitat.

  15. Visual estimation versus gravimetric measurement of postpartum blood loss: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Kadri, Hanan M F; Al Anazi, Bedayah K; Tamim, Hani M

    2011-06-01

    One of the major problems in international literature is how to measure postpartum blood loss with accuracy. We aimed in this research to assess the accuracy of visual estimation of postpartum blood loss (by each of two main health-care providers) compared with the gravimetric calculation method. We carried out a prospective cohort study at King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia between 1 November 2009 and 31 December 2009. All women who were admitted to labor and delivery suite and delivered vaginally were included in the study. Postpartum blood loss was visually estimated by the attending physician and obstetrics nurse and then objectively calculated by a gravimetric machine. Comparison between the three methods of blood loss calculation was carried out. A total of 150 patients were included in this study. There was a significant difference between the gravimetric calculated blood loss and both health-care providers' estimation with a tendency to underestimate the loss by about 30%. The background and seniority of the assessing health-care provider did not affect the accuracy of the estimation. The corrected incidence of postpartum hemorrhage in Saudi Arabia was found to be 1.47%. Health-care providers tend to underestimate the volume of postpartum blood loss by about 30%. Training and continuous auditing of the diagnosis of postpartum hemorrhage is needed to avoid missing cases and thus preventing associated morbidity and mortality.

  16. Protein Losses and Urea Nitrogen Underestimate Total Nitrogen Losses in Peritoneal Dialysis and Hemodialysis Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salame, Clara; Eaton, Simon; Grimble, George; Davenport, Andrew

    2018-04-28

    Muscle wasting is associated with increased mortality and is commonly reported in dialysis patients. Hemodialysis (HD) and peritoneal dialysis (PD) treatments lead to protein losses in effluent dialysate. We wished to determine whether changes in current dialysis practice had increased therapy-associated nitrogen losses. Cross-sectional cohort study. Measurement of total protein, urea and total nitrogen in effluent dialysate from 24-hour collections from PD patients, and during haemodiafiltration (HDF) and haemodialysis (HD) sessions. One hundred eight adult dialysis patients. Peritoneal dialysis, high-flux haemodialysis and haemodiafiltration. Total nitrogen and protein losses. Dialysate protein losses were measured in 68 PD and 40 HD patients. Sessional losses of urea (13.9 [9.2-21.1] vs. 4.8 [2.8-7.8] g); protein (8.6 [7.2-11.1] vs. 6.7 [3.9-11.1] g); and nitrogen (11.5 [8.7-17.7] vs. 4.9 [2.6-9.5] g) were all greater for HD than PD, P losses were lower with HD 25.9 (21.5-33.4) versus 46.6 (27-77.6) g/week, but nitrogen losses were similar. We found no difference between high-flux HD and HDF: urea (13.5 [8.8-20.6] vs. 15.3 [10.5-25.5] g); protein (8.8 [7.3-12.2] vs. 7.6 [5.8-9.0] g); and total nitrogen (11.6 [8.3-17.3] vs. 10.8 [8.9-22.5] g). Urea nitrogen (UN) only accounted for 45.1 (38.3-51.0)% PD and 63.0 (55.3-62.4)% HD of total nitrogen losses. Although sessional losses of protein and UN were greater with HD, weekly losses were similar between modalities. We found no differences between HD and HDF. However, total nitrogen losses were much greater than the combination of protein and UN, suggesting greater nutritional losses with dialysis than previously reported. Copyright © 2018 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Estimates of Workers with Noise-Induced Hearing Loss and Population at Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyakita, T.; Ueda, A.

    1997-08-01

    Towards the goal of protecting workers from damage due to noise exposure, a vast store of knowledge has been generated about its nature, etiology and time course. There still exists, however, a strong need to reclarify the locations, nature and magnitude of the problem of noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL). Based on the rate of positive results in a hearing screening test in the workplace, this paper presents an attempt to estimate the total number of workers with more than 40 dB hearing loss at 4 kHz caused by occupational noise exposure. The estimated values in major industry groups were as follows: about 780 000 in manufacturing; 410 000 in construction; 360 000 in agriculture; forestry and fishing; and around 2 million in total. Although it is rather difficult to estimate the number of workers exposed to noise above 85 dB(A), it may be reasonable to believe that at least several million workers exposed to noise should be covered by the 1992 guidelines for the prevention of noise hazards.

  18. Landslides in Colorado, USA--Impacts and loss estimation for 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Highland, Lynn M.

    2012-01-01

    The focus of this study is to investigate landslides and consequent losses which affected Colorado in the year 2010. By obtaining landslide reports from a variety of sources, this report will demonstrate the feasibility of creating a profile of landslides and their effects on communities. A short overview of the current status of landslide-loss studies for the United States is introduced, followed by a compilation of landslide occurrence and associated losses and impacts which affected Colorado for the year 2010. Direct costs are summarized in descriptive and tabular form, and where possible, indirect costs are also noted or estimated. Total direct costs of landslides in Colorado for the year 2010 were approximately $9,149,335.00 (2010 U.S. dollars). (Since not all data for damages and costs were obtained, this figure realistically could be considerably higher.) Indirect costs were noted where available but are not totaled due to the fact that most indirect costs were not obtainable for various reasons outlined later in this report. Casualty data are considered as being within the scope of loss evaluation, and are reported in Appendix 1, but are not assigned dollar losses. More details on the source material for loss data not found in the reference section are reported in Appendix 2, and Appendix 3 summarizes notes on landslide-loss investigations in general and lessons learned during the process of loss-data collection.

  19. Estimating economic losses from earthquakes using an empirical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2013-01-01

    We extended the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) empirical fatality estimation methodology proposed by Jaiswal et al. (2009) to rapidly estimate economic losses after significant earthquakes worldwide. The requisite model inputs are shaking intensity estimates made by the ShakeMap system, the spatial distribution of population available from the LandScan database, modern and historic country or sub-country population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, and economic loss data from Munich Re's historical earthquakes catalog. We developed a strategy to approximately scale GDP-based economic exposure for historical and recent earthquakes in order to estimate economic losses. The process consists of using a country-specific multiplicative factor to accommodate the disparity between economic exposure and the annual per capita GDP, and it has proven successful in hindcast-ing past losses. Although loss, population, shaking estimates, and economic data used in the calibration process are uncertain, approximate ranges of losses can be estimated for the primary purpose of gauging the overall scope of the disaster and coordinating response. The proposed methodology is both indirect and approximate and is thus best suited as a rapid loss estimation model for applications like the PAGER system.

  20. Influence of Flow Velocity on Tsunami Loss Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Song

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Inundation depth is commonly used as an intensity measure in tsunami fragility analysis. However, inundation depth cannot be taken as the sole representation of tsunami impact on structures, especially when structural damage is caused by hydrodynamic and debris impact forces that are mainly determined by flow velocity. To reflect the influence of flow velocity in addition to inundation depth in tsunami risk assessment, a tsunami loss estimation method that adopts both inundation depth and flow velocity (i.e., bivariate intensity measures in evaluating tsunami damage is developed. To consider a wide range of possible tsunami inundation scenarios, Monte Carlo-based tsunami simulations are performed using stochastic earthquake slip distributions derived from a spectral synthesis method and probabilistic scaling relationships of earthquake source parameters. By focusing on Sendai (plain coast and Onagawa (ria coast in the Miyagi Prefecture of Japan in a case study, the stochastic tsunami loss is evaluated by total economic loss and its spatial distribution at different scales. The results indicate that tsunami loss prediction is highly sensitive to modelling resolution and inclusion of flow velocity for buildings located less than 1 km from the sea for Sendai and Onagawa of Miyagi Prefecture.

  1. A remote sensing method for estimating regional reservoir area and evaporative loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hua; Gorelick, Steven M.; Zimba, Paul V.; Zhang, Xiaodong

    2017-12-01

    Evaporation from the water surface of a reservoir can significantly affect its function of ensuring the availability and temporal stability of water supply. Current estimations of reservoir evaporative loss are dependent on water area derived from a reservoir storage-area curve. Such curves are unavailable if the reservoir is located in a data-sparse region or questionable if long-term sedimentation has changed the original elevation-area relationship. We propose a remote sensing framework to estimate reservoir evaporative loss at the regional scale. This framework uses a multispectral water index to extract reservoir area from Landsat imagery and estimate monthly evaporation volume based on pan-derived evaporative rates. The optimal index threshold is determined based on local observations and extended to unobserved locations and periods. Built on the cloud computing capacity of the Google Earth Engine, this framework can efficiently analyze satellite images at large spatiotemporal scales, where such analysis is infeasible with a single computer. Our study involves 200 major reservoirs in Texas, captured in 17,811 Landsat images over a 32-year period. The results show that these reservoirs contribute to an annual evaporative loss of 8.0 billion cubic meters, equivalent to 20% of their total active storage or 53% of total annual water use in Texas. At five coastal basins, reservoir evaporative losses exceed the minimum freshwater inflows required to sustain ecosystem health and fishery productivity of the receiving estuaries. Reservoir evaporative loss can be significant enough to counterbalance the positive effects of impounding water and to offset the contribution of water conservation and reuse practices. Our results also reveal the spatially variable performance of the multispectral water index and indicate the limitation of using scene-level cloud cover to screen satellite images. This study demonstrates the advantage of combining satellite remote sensing and

  2. Body composition during weight loss in obese patients estimated by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry and by total body potassium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendel, H W; Gotfredsen, A; Andersen, T

    1996-01-01

    for FFM were strong (r = 0.92 and 0.93). Bland and Altman plots showed limits of agreement of +/-9 kg before and after weight loss; DXA underestimated FFM in women and overestimated FFM in men. DXA accounted for 80% of the lost body weight. The composition of the lost body mass did not differ from...... that estimated by TBK (7.6% FFM and 92.4% FM by TBK; 11% FFM and 89% FM by DXA). CONCLUSION: DXA estimates accurately the body composition and the composition of weight loss in groups of obese subjects. However, the scan table may be too small for patients weighing more than 95 kg....

  3. Estimation of radiation losses from sheathed thermocouples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, I.L.; Coney, J.E.R.; Gibbs, B.M.

    2011-01-01

    Thermocouples are often used for temperature measurements in heat exchangers. However if the radiation losses from a thermocouple in a high temperature gas flow to colder surroundings are ignored significant errors can occur. Even at moderate temperature differences, these can be significant. Prediction of radiation losses from theory can be problematic, especially in situations where there are large variations in the measured temperatures as the emissivity and radiative heat transfer coefficient of the thermocouple are not constant. The following approach combines experimental results with established empirical relationships to estimate losses due to radiation in an annular heat exchanger at temperatures up to 950 o C. - Highlights: → Sheathed thermocouples are often used to measure temperatures in heat exchangers. → Errors are introduced if radiation losses are ignored. → Radiation losses are environment specific and may be significant. → Experimental and theoretical methods are used to estimate losses. → Hot side maximum temperature 950 o C.

  4. STEAM GENERATOR TUBE INTEGRITY ANALYSIS OF A TOTAL LOSS OF ALL HEAT SINKS ACCIDENT FOR WOLSONG NPP UNIT 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HEOK-SOON LIM

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available A total loss of all heat sinks is considered a severe accident with a low probability of occurrence. Following a total loss of all heat sinks, the degasser/condenser relief valves (DCRV become the sole means available for the depressurization of the primary heat transport system. If a nuclear power plant has a total loss of heat sinks accident, high-temperature steam and differential pressure between the primary heat transport system (PHTS and the steam generator (SG secondary side can cause a SG tube creep rupture. To protect the PHTS during a total loss of all heat sinks accident, a sufficient depressurization capability of the degasser/condenser relief valve and the SG tube integrity is very important. Therefore, an accurate estimation of the discharge through these valves is necessary to assess the impact of the PHTS overprotection and the SG tube integrity of the primary circuit. This paper describes the analysis of DCRV discharge capacity and the SG tube integrity under a total loss of all heat sink using the CATHENA code. It was found that the DCRV's discharge capacity is enough to protect the overpressure in the PHTS, and the SG tube integrity is maintained in a total loss of all heat accident.

  5. Steam Generator Tube Integrity Analysis of A Total Loss of all Heat Sinks Accident for Wolsong NPP Unit 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lim, Heoksoon; Song, Taeyoung; Chi, Moongoo [Korea Htydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Seoungrae [Nuclear Engineering Service and Solution, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-02-15

    A total loss of all heat sinks is considered a severe accident with a low probability of occurrence. Following a total loss of all heat sinks, the degasser/condenser relief valves (DCRV) become the sole means available for the depressurization of the primary heat transport system. If a nuclear power plant has a total loss of heat sinks accident, high-temperature steam and differential pressure between the primary heat transport system (PHTS) and the steam generator (SG) secondary side can cause a SG tube creep rupture. To protect the PHTS during a total loss of all heat sinks accident, a sufficient depressurization capability of the degasser/condenser relief valve and the SG tube integrity is very important. Therefore, an accurate estimation of the discharge through these valves is necessary to assess the impact of the PHTS overprotection and the SG tube integrity of the primary circuit. This paper describes the analysis of DCRV discharge capacity and the SG tube integrity under a total loss of all heat sink using the CATHENA code. It was found that the DCRV's discharge capacity is enough to protect the overpressure in the PHTS, and the SG tube integrity is maintained in a total loss of all heat accident.

  6. Steam Generator Tube Integrity Analysis of A Total Loss of all Heat Sinks Accident for Wolsong NPP Unit 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Heoksoon; Song, Taeyoung; Chi, Moongoo; Kim, Seoungrae

    2014-01-01

    A total loss of all heat sinks is considered a severe accident with a low probability of occurrence. Following a total loss of all heat sinks, the degasser/condenser relief valves (DCRV) become the sole means available for the depressurization of the primary heat transport system. If a nuclear power plant has a total loss of heat sinks accident, high-temperature steam and differential pressure between the primary heat transport system (PHTS) and the steam generator (SG) secondary side can cause a SG tube creep rupture. To protect the PHTS during a total loss of all heat sinks accident, a sufficient depressurization capability of the degasser/condenser relief valve and the SG tube integrity is very important. Therefore, an accurate estimation of the discharge through these valves is necessary to assess the impact of the PHTS overprotection and the SG tube integrity of the primary circuit. This paper describes the analysis of DCRV discharge capacity and the SG tube integrity under a total loss of all heat sink using the CATHENA code. It was found that the DCRV's discharge capacity is enough to protect the overpressure in the PHTS, and the SG tube integrity is maintained in a total loss of all heat accident

  7. Body protein losses estimated by nitrogen balance and potassium-40 counting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belyea, R.L.; Babbitt, C.L.; Sedgwick, H.T.; Zinn, G.M.

    1986-01-01

    Body protein losses estimated from N balance were compared with those estimated by 40K counting. Six nonlactating dairy cows were fed an adequate N diet for 7 wk, a low N diet for 9 wk, and a replete N diet for 3 wk. The low N diet contained high cell wall grass hay plus ground corn, starch, and molasses. Soybean meal was added to the low N diet to increase N in the adequate N and replete N diets. Intake was measured daily. Digestibilities, N balance, and body composition (estimated by 40K counting) were determined during each dietary regimen. During low N treatment, hay dry matter intake declined 2 kg/d, and supplement increased about .5 kg/d. Dry matter digestibility was not altered by N treatment. Protein and acid detergent fiber digestibilities decreased from 40 and 36% during adequate N to 20 and 2%, respectively, during low N. Fecal and urinary N also declined when cows were fed the low N diet. By the end of repletion, total intake, fiber, and protein digestibilities as well as N partition were similar to or exceeded those during adequate N intake. Body protein (N) loss was estimated by N balance to be about 3 kg compared with 8 kg by 40K counting. Body fat losses (32 kg) were large because of low energy digestibility and intake. Seven kilograms of body fat were regained during repletion, but there was no change in body protein

  8. Human local and total heat losses in different temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lijuan; Yin, Hui; Di, Yuhui; Liu, Yanfeng; Liu, Jiaping

    2016-04-01

    This study investigates the effects of operative temperature on the local and total heat losses, and the relationship between the heat loss and thermal sensation. 10 local parts of head, neck, chest, abdomen, upper arm, forearm, hand, thigh, leg and foot are selected. In all these parts, convection, radiation, evaporation, respiration, conduction and diffusion heat losses are analyzed when operative temperature is 23, 28, 33 and 37 °C. The local heat losses show that the radiation and convection heat losses are mainly affected by the area of local body, and the heat loss of the thigh is the most in the ten parts. The evaporation heat loss is mainly affected by the distribution of sweat gland, and the heat loss of the chest is the most. The total heat loss of the local body shows that in low temperature, the thigh, leg and chest have much heat loss, while in high temperature, the chest, abdomen, thigh and head have great heat loss, which are useful for clothing design. The heat losses of the whole body show that as the operative temperature increases, the radiation and convection heat losses decrease, the heat losses of conduction, respiration, and diffusion are almost constant, and the evaporation heat loss increases. By comparison, the heat loss ratios of the radiation, convection and sweat evaporation, are in agreement with the previous researches. At last, the formula about the heat loss ratio of convection and radiation is derived. It's useful for thermal comfort evaluation and HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) design. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Estimated annual economic loss from organ condemnation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    as a basis for the analysis of estimation of the economic significance of bovine .... percent involvement of each organ were used in the estimation of the financial loss from organ .... DVM thesis, Addis Ababa University, Faculty of Veterinary.

  10. Estimating Phosphorus Loss at the Whole-Farm Scale with User-Friendly Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vadas, P.; Powell, M.; Brink, G.; Busch, D.; Good, L.

    2014-12-01

    Phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields and delivery to surface waters persists as a water quality impairment issue. For dairy farms, P can be lost from cropland, pastures, barnyards, and open-air cattle lots; and all these sources must be evaluated to determine which ones are a priority for P loss remediation. We used interview surveys to document land use, cattle herd characteristics, and manure management for four grazing-based dairy farms in Wisconsin, USA. We then used the APLE and Snap-Plus models to estimate annual P loss from all areas on these farms and determine their relative contribution to whole-farm P loss. At the whole-farm level, average annual P loss (kg ha-1) from grazing-based dairy farms was low (0.6 to 1.8 kg ha-1), generally because a significant portion of land was in permanently vegetated pastures or hay and had low erosion. However, there were areas on the farms that represented sources of significant P loss. For cropland, the greatest P loss was from areas with exposed soil, typically for corn production, and especially on steeper sloping land. The farm areas with the greatest P loss had concentrated animal housing, including barnyards, and over-wintering and young-stock lots. These areas can represent from about 5% to almost 30% of total farm P loss, depending on lot management and P loss from other land uses. Our project builds on research to show that producer surveys can provide reliable management information to assess whole-farm P loss. It also shows that we can use models like RUSLE2, Snap-Plus, and APLE to rapidly, reliably, and quantitatively estimate P loss in runoff from all areas on a dairy farm and identify areas in greatest need of alternative management to reduce P loss.

  11. Estimating annualized earthquake losses for the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Bausch, Douglas; Chen, Rui; Bouabid, Jawhar; Seligson, Hope

    2015-01-01

    We make use of the most recent National Seismic Hazard Maps (the years 2008 and 2014 cycles), updated census data on population, and economic exposure estimates of general building stock to quantify annualized earthquake loss (AEL) for the conterminous United States. The AEL analyses were performed using the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Hazus software, which facilitated a systematic comparison of the influence of the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Maps in terms of annualized loss estimates in different parts of the country. The losses from an individual earthquake could easily exceed many tens of billions of dollars, and the long-term averaged value of losses from all earthquakes within the conterminous U.S. has been estimated to be a few billion dollars per year. This study estimated nationwide losses to be approximately $4.5 billion per year (in 2012$), roughly 80% of which can be attributed to the States of California, Oregon and Washington. We document the change in estimated AELs arising solely from the change in the assumed hazard map. The change from the 2008 map to the 2014 map results in a 10 to 20% reduction in AELs for the highly seismic States of the Western United States, whereas the reduction is even more significant for Central and Eastern United States.

  12. Decay in blood loss estimation skills after web-based didactic training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toledo, Paloma; Eosakul, Stanley T; Goetz, Kristopher; Wong, Cynthia A; Grobman, William A

    2012-02-01

    Accuracy in blood loss estimation has been shown to improve immediately after didactic training. The objective of this study was to evaluate retention of blood loss estimation skills 9 months after a didactic web-based training. Forty-four participants were recruited from a cohort that had undergone web-based training and testing in blood loss estimation. The web-based posttraining test, consisting of pictures of simulated blood loss, was repeated 9 months after the initial training and testing. The primary outcome was the difference in accuracy of estimated blood loss (percent error) at 9 months compared with immediately posttraining. At the 9-month follow-up, the median error in estimation worsened to -34.6%. Although better than the pretraining error of -47.8% (P = 0.003), the 9-month error was significantly less accurate than the immediate posttraining error of -13.5% (P = 0.01). Decay in blood loss estimation skills occurs by 9 months after didactic training.

  13. Population: Census Bureau Total Estimates (2010-2012)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — Total population estimates are estimates of the total number of residents living in an area on July 1 of each year. The Census Bureau’s Population Division produces...

  14. Estimation of evaporative losses during storage of crude oil and petroleum products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihajlović Marina A.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Storage of crude oil and petroleum products inevitably leads to evaporative losses. Those losses are important for the industrial plants mass balances, as well as for the environmental protection. In this paper, estimation of evaporative losses was performed using software program TANKS 409d which was developed by the Agency for Environmental Protection of the United States - US EPA. Emissions were estimated for the following types of storage tanks: fixed conical roof tank, fixed dome roof tank, external floating roof tank, internal floating roof tank and domed external floating roof tank. Obtained results show quantities of evaporated losses per tone of stored liquid. Crude oil fixed roof storage tank losses are cca 0.5 kg per tone of crude oil. For floating roof, crude oil losses are 0.001 kg/t. Fuel oil (diesel fuel and heating oil have the smallest evaporation losses, which are in order of magnitude 10-3 kg/tone. Liquids with higher Reid Vapour Pressure have very high evaporative losses for tanks with fixed roof, up to 2.07 kg/tone. In case of external floating roof tank, losses are 0.32 kg/tone. The smallest losses are for internal floating roof tank and domed external floating roof tank: 0.072 and 0.044, respectively. Finally, it can be concluded that the liquid with low volatility of low BTEX amount can be stored in tanks with fixed roof. In this case, the prevailing economic aspect, because the total amount of evaporative loss does not significantly affect the environment. On the other hand, storage of volatile derivatives with high levels of BTEX is not justified from the economic point of view or from the standpoint of the environment protection.

  15. Estimating extreme losses for the Florida Public Hurricane Model—part II

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulati, Sneh; George, Florence; Hamid, Shahid

    2018-02-01

    Rising global temperatures are leading to an increase in the number of extreme events and losses (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/). Accurate estimation of these extreme losses with the intention of protecting themselves against them is critical to insurance companies. In a previous paper, Gulati et al. (2014) discussed probable maximum loss (PML) estimation for the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (FPHLM) using parametric and nonparametric methods. In this paper, we investigate the use of semi-parametric methods to do the same. Detailed analysis of the data shows that the annual losses from FPHLM do not tend to be very heavy tailed, and therefore, neither the popular Hill's method nor the moment's estimator work well. However, Pickand's estimator with threshold around the 84th percentile provides a good fit for the extreme quantiles for the losses.

  16. Canadian Estimate of Bird Mortality Due to Collisions and Direct Habitat Loss Associated with Wind Turbine Developments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Ryan. Zimmerling

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available We estimated impacts on birds from the development and operation of wind turbines in Canada considering both mortality due to collisions and loss of nesting habitat. We estimated collision mortality using data from carcass searches for 43 wind farms, incorporating correction factors for scavenger removal, searcher efficiency, and carcasses that fell beyond the area searched. On average, 8.2 ± 1.4 birds (95% C.I. were killed per turbine per year at these sites, although the numbers at individual wind farms varied from 0 - 26.9 birds per turbine per year. Based on 2955 installed turbines (the number installed in Canada by December 2011, an estimated 23,300 birds (95% C.I. 20,000 - 28,300 would be killed from collisions with turbines each year. We estimated direct habitat loss based on data from 32 wind farms in Canada. On average, total habitat loss per turbine was 1.23 ha, which corresponds to an estimated total habitat loss due to wind farms nationwide of 3635 ha. Based on published estimates of nest density, this could represent habitat for ~5700 nests of all species. Assuming nearby habitats are saturated, and 2 adults displaced per nest site, effects of direct habitat loss are less than that of direct mortality. Installed wind capacity is growing rapidly, and is predicted to increase more than 10-fold over the next 10-15 years, which could lead to direct mortality of approximately 233,000 birds / year, and displacement of 57,000 pairs. Despite concerns about the impacts of biased correction factors on the accuracy of mortality estimates, these values are likely much lower than those from collisions with some other anthropogenic sources such as windows, vehicles, or towers, or habitat loss due to many other forms of development. Species composition data suggest that < 0.2% of the population of any species is currently affected by mortality or displacement from wind turbine development. Therefore, population level impacts are unlikely

  17. Total Discharge Estimation in the Korean Peninsula Using Multi-Satellite Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae Young Seo

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Estimation of total discharge is necessary to understand the hydrological cycle and to manage water resources efficiently. However, the task is problematic in an area where ground observations are limited. The North Korea region is one example. Here, the total discharge was estimated based on the water balance using multiple satellite products. They are the terrestrial water storage changes (TWSC derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE, precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM, and evapotranspiration from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS. The satellite-based discharge was compared with land surface model products of the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS, and a positive relationship between the results was obtained (r = 0.70–0.86; bias = −9.08–16.99 mm/month; RMSE = 36.90–62.56 mm/month; NSE = 0.01–0.62. Among the four land surface models of GLDAS (CLM, Mosaic, Noah, and VIC, CLM corresponded best with the satellite-based discharge, satellite-based discharge has a tendency to slightly overestimate compared to model-based discharge (CLM, Mosaic, Noah, and VIC in the dry season. Also, the total discharge data based on the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS and the in situ discharge for major five river basins in South Korea show comparable seasonality and high correlation with the satellite-based discharge. In spite of the relatively low spatial resolution of GRACE, and loss of information incurred during the process of integrating three different satellite products, the proposed methodology can be a practical tool to estimate the total discharge with reasonable accuracy, especially in a region with scarce hydrologic data.

  18. A meta-regression analysis of 41 Australian problem gambling prevalence estimates and their relationship to total spending on electronic gaming machines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis Markham

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many jurisdictions regularly conduct surveys to estimate the prevalence of problem gambling in their adult populations. However, the comparison of such estimates is problematic due to methodological variations between studies. Total consumption theory suggests that an association between mean electronic gaming machine (EGM and casino gambling losses and problem gambling prevalence estimates may exist. If this is the case, then changes in EGM losses may be used as a proxy indicator for changes in problem gambling prevalence. To test for this association this study examines the relationship between aggregated losses on electronic gaming machines (EGMs and problem gambling prevalence estimates for Australian states and territories between 1994 and 2016. Methods A Bayesian meta-regression analysis of 41 cross-sectional problem gambling prevalence estimates was undertaken using EGM gambling losses, year of survey and methodological variations as predictor variables. General population studies of adults in Australian states and territory published before 1 July 2016 were considered in scope. 41 studies were identified, with a total of 267,367 participants. Problem gambling prevalence, moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence, problem gambling screen, administration mode and frequency threshold were extracted from surveys. Administrative data on EGM and casino gambling loss data were extracted from government reports and expressed as the proportion of household disposable income lost. Results Money lost on EGMs is correlated with problem gambling prevalence. An increase of 1% of household disposable income lost on EGMs and in casinos was associated with problem gambling prevalence estimates that were 1.33 times higher [95% credible interval 1.04, 1.71]. There was no clear association between EGM losses and moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates. Moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates were not explained by

  19. A meta-regression analysis of 41 Australian problem gambling prevalence estimates and their relationship to total spending on electronic gaming machines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markham, Francis; Young, Martin; Doran, Bruce; Sugden, Mark

    2017-05-23

    Many jurisdictions regularly conduct surveys to estimate the prevalence of problem gambling in their adult populations. However, the comparison of such estimates is problematic due to methodological variations between studies. Total consumption theory suggests that an association between mean electronic gaming machine (EGM) and casino gambling losses and problem gambling prevalence estimates may exist. If this is the case, then changes in EGM losses may be used as a proxy indicator for changes in problem gambling prevalence. To test for this association this study examines the relationship between aggregated losses on electronic gaming machines (EGMs) and problem gambling prevalence estimates for Australian states and territories between 1994 and 2016. A Bayesian meta-regression analysis of 41 cross-sectional problem gambling prevalence estimates was undertaken using EGM gambling losses, year of survey and methodological variations as predictor variables. General population studies of adults in Australian states and territory published before 1 July 2016 were considered in scope. 41 studies were identified, with a total of 267,367 participants. Problem gambling prevalence, moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence, problem gambling screen, administration mode and frequency threshold were extracted from surveys. Administrative data on EGM and casino gambling loss data were extracted from government reports and expressed as the proportion of household disposable income lost. Money lost on EGMs is correlated with problem gambling prevalence. An increase of 1% of household disposable income lost on EGMs and in casinos was associated with problem gambling prevalence estimates that were 1.33 times higher [95% credible interval 1.04, 1.71]. There was no clear association between EGM losses and moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates. Moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates were not explained by the models (I 2  ≥ 0.97; R 2  ≤ 0.01). The

  20. Estimation of economic losses due to Peste de Petits Ruminants in small ruminants in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Singh

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To develop a simple mathematical model to assess the losses due to peste des petits ruminants (PPR in small ruminants in India. Materials and Methods: The study was based on cases and deaths in goats and sheep due to PPR from the average combined data on ovine/caprine as published by Government of India for the last 5 years (2008-2012. All possible direct and indirect losses due to the disease, viz. mortality losses, losses due to direct reduction in milk/wool yield, losses due to reproduction failure, body weight losses, treatment costs and opportunity costs, were considered to provide estimate of annual economic losses due to PPR in sheep and goats in India. Based on cases and deaths as reported in sample survey studies, the annual economic loss was also estimated. Results: On the basis of data reported by Government of India, the study has shown average annual economic loss of Rs. 167.83 lacs, of which Rs. 125.67 lacs and Rs. 42.16 lacs respectively are due to the incidence of the disease in goats and sheep. Morbidity losses constituted the greater share of the total loss in both goats and sheep (56.99% and 61.34%, respectively. Among different components of morbidity loss, direct body weight loss was the most significant in both goats and sheep. Based on cases and deaths as reported in sample survey studies, the estimated annual economic loss due to PPR in goats and sheep is Rs. 8895.12 crores, of which Rs. 5477.48 and Rs. 3417.64 crores respectively are due to the disease in goats and sheep. Conclusion: The low economic losses as reported based on Government of India data points towards underreporting of cases and deaths due to the disease. The study thus revealed a significant loss due to PPR in small ruminants on a large scale.

  1. Decisions with Uncertain Consequences-A Total Ordering on Loss-Distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rass, Stefan; König, Sandra; Schauer, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    Decisions are often based on imprecise, uncertain or vague information. Likewise, the consequences of an action are often equally unpredictable, thus putting the decision maker into a twofold jeopardy. Assuming that the effects of an action can be modeled by a random variable, then the decision problem boils down to comparing different effects (random variables) by comparing their distribution functions. Although the full space of probability distributions cannot be ordered, a properly restricted subset of distributions can be totally ordered in a practically meaningful way. We call these loss-distributions, since they provide a substitute for the concept of loss-functions in decision theory. This article introduces the theory behind the necessary restrictions and the hereby constructible total ordering on random loss variables, which enables decisions under uncertainty of consequences. Using data obtained from simulations, we demonstrate the practical applicability of our approach.

  2. Recurrent anterior shoulder instability: accuracy of estimations of glenoid bone loss with computed tomography is insufficient for therapeutic decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huijsmans, Polydoor Emile [Haga Hospital, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, The Hague (Netherlands); Witte, Pieter Bas de [Leiden University Medical Center, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Leiden (Netherlands); Villiers, Richard V.P. de; Kruger, Niel Ruben [Van Wageningen and Partners, Radiology Department, Somerset West (South Africa); Wolterbeek, Derk Willem; Warmerdam, Piet [Haga Hospital, Department of Radiology, The Hague (Netherlands); Beer, Joe F. de [Cape Shoulder Institute, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Cape Town (South Africa)

    2011-10-15

    To evaluate the reliability of glenoid bone loss estimations based on either axial computed tomography (CT) series or single sagittal (''en face'' to glenoid) CT reconstructions, and to assess their accuracy by comparing with actual CT-based bone loss measurements, in patients with anterior glenohumeral instability. In two separate series of patients diagnosed with recurrent anterior glenohumeral instability, glenoid bone loss was estimated on axial CT series and on the most lateral sagittal (en face) glenoid view by two blinded radiologists. Additionally, in the second series of patients, glenoid defects were measured on sagittal CT reconstructions by an independent observer. In both series, larger defects were estimated when based on sagittal CT images compared to axial views. In the second series, mean measured bone loss was 11.5% (SD = 6.0) of the total original glenoid area, with estimations of 9.6% (SD = 7.2) and 7.8% (SD = 4.2) for sagittal and axial views, respectively. Correlations of defect estimations with actual measurements were fair to poor; glenoid defects tended to be underestimated, especially when based on axial views. CT-based estimations of glenoid bone defects are inaccurate. Especially for axial views, there is a high chance of glenoid defect underestimation. When using glenoid bone loss quantification in therapeutic decision-making, measuring the defect instead of estimating is strongly advised. (orig.)

  3. Decisions with Uncertain Consequences-A Total Ordering on Loss-Distributions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Rass

    Full Text Available Decisions are often based on imprecise, uncertain or vague information. Likewise, the consequences of an action are often equally unpredictable, thus putting the decision maker into a twofold jeopardy. Assuming that the effects of an action can be modeled by a random variable, then the decision problem boils down to comparing different effects (random variables by comparing their distribution functions. Although the full space of probability distributions cannot be ordered, a properly restricted subset of distributions can be totally ordered in a practically meaningful way. We call these loss-distributions, since they provide a substitute for the concept of loss-functions in decision theory. This article introduces the theory behind the necessary restrictions and the hereby constructible total ordering on random loss variables, which enables decisions under uncertainty of consequences. Using data obtained from simulations, we demonstrate the practical applicability of our approach.

  4. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the annual phosphorus loss estimator model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolster, Carl H; Vadas, Peter A

    2013-07-01

    Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. Although it is commonly recognized that model predictions are inherently uncertain, few studies have addressed prediction uncertainties using P loss models. In this study we assessed the effect of model input error on predictions of annual P loss by the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model. Our objectives were (i) to conduct a sensitivity analyses for all APLE input variables to determine which variables the model is most sensitive to, (ii) to determine whether the relatively easy-to-implement first-order approximation (FOA) method provides accurate estimates of model prediction uncertainties by comparing results with the more accurate Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method, and (iii) to evaluate the performance of the APLE model against measured P loss data when uncertainties in model predictions and measured data are included. Our results showed that for low to moderate uncertainties in APLE input variables, the FOA method yields reasonable estimates of model prediction uncertainties, although for cases where manure solid content is between 14 and 17%, the FOA method may not be as accurate as the MCS method due to a discontinuity in the manure P loss component of APLE at a manure solid content of 15%. The estimated uncertainties in APLE predictions based on assumed errors in the input variables ranged from ±2 to 64% of the predicted value. Results from this study highlight the importance of including reasonable estimates of model uncertainty when using models to predict P loss. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  5. How Acute Total Sleep Loss Affects the Attending Brain: A Meta-Analysis of Neuroimaging Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Ning; Dinges, David F.; Basner, Mathias; Rao, Hengyi

    2015-01-01

    Study Objectives: Attention is a cognitive domain that can be severely affected by sleep deprivation. Previous neuroimaging studies have used different attention paradigms and reported both increased and reduced brain activation after sleep deprivation. However, due to large variability in sleep deprivation protocols, task paradigms, experimental designs, characteristics of subject populations, and imaging techniques, there is no consensus regarding the effects of sleep loss on the attending brain. The aim of this meta-analysis was to identify brain activations that are commonly altered by acute total sleep deprivation across different attention tasks. Design: Coordinate-based meta-analysis of neuroimaging studies of performance on attention tasks during experimental sleep deprivation. Methods: The current version of the activation likelihood estimation (ALE) approach was used for meta-analysis. The authors searched published articles and identified 11 sleep deprivation neuroimaging studies using different attention tasks with a total of 185 participants, equaling 81 foci for ALE analysis. Results: The meta-analysis revealed significantly reduced brain activation in multiple regions following sleep deprivation compared to rested wakefulness, including bilateral intraparietal sulcus, bilateral insula, right prefrontal cortex, medial frontal cortex, and right parahippocampal gyrus. Increased activation was found only in bilateral thalamus after sleep deprivation compared to rested wakefulness. Conclusion: Acute total sleep deprivation decreases brain activation in the fronto-parietal attention network (prefrontal cortex and intraparietal sulcus) and in the salience network (insula and medial frontal cortex). Increased thalamic activation after sleep deprivation may reflect a complex interaction between the de-arousing effects of sleep loss and the arousing effects of task performance on thalamic activity. Citation: Ma N, Dinges DF, Basner M, Rao H. How acute total

  6. Improving PAGER's real-time earthquake casualty and loss estimation toolkit: a challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, K.S.; Wald, D.J.

    2012-01-01

    We describe the on-going developments of PAGER’s loss estimation models, and discuss value-added web content that can be generated related to exposure, damage and loss outputs for a variety of PAGER users. These developments include identifying vulnerable building types in any given area, estimating earthquake-induced damage and loss statistics by building type, and developing visualization aids that help locate areas of concern for improving post-earthquake response efforts. While detailed exposure and damage information is highly useful and desirable, significant improvements are still necessary in order to improve underlying building stock and vulnerability data at a global scale. Existing efforts with the GEM’s GED4GEM and GVC consortia will help achieve some of these objectives. This will benefit PAGER especially in regions where PAGER’s empirical model is less-well constrained; there, the semi-empirical and analytical models will provide robust estimates of damage and losses. Finally, we outline some of the challenges associated with rapid casualty and loss estimation that we experienced while responding to recent large earthquakes worldwide.

  7. An overall estimation of losses caused by diseases in the Brazilian fish farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavares-Dias, Marcos; Martins, Maurício Laterça

    2017-12-01

    Parasitic and infectious diseases are common in finfish, but are difficult to accurately estimate the economic impacts on the production in a country with large dimensions like Brazil. The aim of this study was to estimate the costs caused by economic losses of finfish due to mortality by diseases in Brazil. A model for estimating the costs related to parasitic and bacterial diseases in farmed fish and an estimative of these economic impacts are presented. We used official data of production and mortality of finfish for rough estimation of economic losses. The losses herein presented are related to direct and indirect economic costs for freshwater farmed fish, which were estimated in US$ 84 million per year. Finally, it was possible to establish by the first time an estimative of overall losses in finfish production in Brazil using data available from production. Therefore, this current estimative must help researchers and policy makers to approximate the economic costs of diseases for fish farming industry, as well as for developing of public policies on the control measures of diseases and priority research lines.

  8. A novel estimation of electrical and cooling losses in electric arc furnaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trejo, Eder; Martell, Fernando; Micheloud, Osvaldo; Teng, Lidong; Llamas, Armando; Montesinos-Castellanos, Alejandro

    2012-01-01

    A method to calculate electrical losses and a heat transfer model of a conventional Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) are presented. The application of a novel power theory for the EAF was used to compute electrical losses and it was compared with conventional power calculations. The electrical losses and electrical variables were used as input parameters to the proposed heat transfer model. Chemical energy sources were included as energy inputs to estimate the overall heat transferred including the heat losses in the cooling system. In the heat transfer model the furnace was divided in 11 inner surfaces and the radiation view factors between them were estimated by a commercial finite element software. Variations of the view factors for different arc coverage were evaluated. Different scenarios for cooling panels losses, with respect to arc coverage and thickness of slag layers adhered to cooling system panels, were analyzed. The approach presented in this work allows calculation of energy balances in electrical arc furnaces with low computational resources. Finally, the contribution of this research work is to define a framework for further research oriented to improve both the electrical and thermal energy efficiencies to increase productivity and reduce energy consumption in steel plants. -- Highlights: ► Radiation view factors for the electric arc furnace are estimated. ► Potential reduction in cooling losses is estimated to be 60 kWh/ton. ► Electrical losses are calculated based in the randomness power theory. ► The new approach yields an increase of 10% in the electrical losses. ► An analytic model is used to estimate the radiation mechanism.

  9. Simulation-based seismic loss estimation of seaport transportation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ung Jin Na; Shinozuka, Masanobu

    2009-01-01

    Seaport transportation system is one of the major lifeline systems in modern society and its reliable operation is crucial for the well-being of the public. However, past experiences showed that earthquake damage to port components can severely disrupt terminal operation, and thus negatively impact on the regional economy. The main purpose of this study is to provide a methodology for estimating the effects of the earthquake on the performance of the operation system of a container terminal in seaports. To evaluate the economic loss of damaged system, an analytical framework is developed by integrating simulation models for terminal operation and fragility curves of port components in the context of seismic risk analysis. For this purpose, computerized simulation model is developed and verified with actual terminal operation records. Based on the analytical procedure to assess the seismic performance of the terminal, system fragility curves are also developed. This simulation-based loss estimation methodology can be used not only for estimating the seismically induced revenue loss but also serve as a decision-making tool to select specific seismic retrofit technique on the basis of benefit-cost analysis

  10. Improved ice loss estimate of the northwestern Greenland ice sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, Kristian Kjellerup; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Wahr, J.

    2013-01-01

    We estimate ice volume change rates in the northwest Greenland drainage basin during 2003–2009 using Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimeter data. Elevation changes are often reported to be largest near the frontal portion of outlet glaciers. To improve the volume change...... estimate, we supplement the ICESat data with altimeter surveys from NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper from 2002 to 2010 and NASA's Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor from 2010. The Airborne data are mainly concentrated along the ice margin and thus have a significant impact on the estimate of the volume...... change. Our results show that adding Airborne Topographic Mapper and Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor data to the ICESat data increases the catchment-wide estimate of ice volume loss by 11%, mainly due to an improved volume loss estimate along the ice sheet margin. Furthermore, our results show...

  11. Model-based estimation of finite population total in stratified sampling

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The work presented in this paper concerns the estimation of finite population total under model – based framework. Nonparametric regression approach as a method of estimating finite population total is explored. The asymptotic properties of the estimators based on nonparametric regression are also developed under ...

  12. 7 A GIS Estimation of Soil Loss

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    of the river channel that is causing flooding in some parts of Accra, Ghana. ... Soil loss factors such as rainfall erosivity, soil erodibilty, .... High rainfall intensity will easily splash or remove top soil, and it can also cause mass movement. In USLE erosivity, (R) is empirically estimated as. (Burrough & McDonnell, 1998):.

  13. prediction of path loss estimate for a frequency modulation (fm)

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Orinya

    Nigeria, FM station, Makurdi which is normally a major component in the ... and can be used to estimate path losses of FM signals in Benue State of ... limited in equipment to measure all the .... path loss while MATLAB R2007b software was.

  14. Measuring, calculating and estimating PEP's parasitic mode loss parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weaver, J.N.

    1981-01-01

    This note discusses various ways the parasitic mode losses from a bunched beam to a vacuum chamber can be measured, calculated or estimated. A listing of the parameter, k, for the various PEP ring components is included. A number of formulas for calculating multiple and single pass losses are discussed and evaluated for several cases. 25 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  15. Estimated loss of juvenile salmonids to predation by northern squawfish, walleyes, and smallmouth bass in John Day Reservoir, Columbia River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rieman, B.E.; Beamesderfer, R.C.; Vigg, S.; Poe, T.P.

    1991-01-01

    The authors estimated the loss of juvenile salmonids Oncorhynchus spp. to predation by northern squawfish Ptychocheilus oregonensis, walleyes Stizostedion vitreum, and smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu in John Day Reservoir during 1983-1986. Their estimates were based on measures of daily prey consumption, predator numbers, and numbers of juvenile salmonids entering the reservoir during the April-August period of migration. They estimated the mean annual loss was 2.7 million juvenile salmonids. Northern squawfish were responsible for 78% of the total loss; walleyes accounted for 13% and smallmouth bass for 9%. Twenty-one percent of the loss occurred in a small area immediately below McNary Dam at the head of John Day Reservoir. The authors estimated that the three predator species consumed 14% of all juvenile salmonids that entered the reservoir. Mortality changed by month and increased late in the migration season. Monthly mortality estimates ranged from 7% in June and 61% in August. Mortality from predation was highest for chinook salmon O. tshawytscha, which migrated in July and August. Despite uncertainties in the estimates, it is clear that predation by resident fish predators can easily account for previously explained mortality of out-migrating juvenile salmonids. Alteration of the Columbia River by dams and a decline in the number of salmonids could have increased the fraction of mortality caused by predation over what is was in the past

  16. Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio

    2013-04-01

    The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.

  17. Effect of survey design and catch rate estimation on total catch estimates in Chinook salmon fisheries

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael C.; Schill, Daniel J.

    2012-01-01

    Roving–roving and roving–access creel surveys are the primary techniques used to obtain information on harvest of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in Idaho sport fisheries. Once interviews are conducted using roving–roving or roving–access survey designs, mean catch rate can be estimated with the ratio-of-means (ROM) estimator, the mean-of-ratios (MOR) estimator, or the MOR estimator with exclusion of short-duration (≤0.5 h) trips. Our objective was to examine the relative bias and precision of total catch estimates obtained from use of the two survey designs and three catch rate estimators for Idaho Chinook salmon fisheries. Information on angling populations was obtained by direct visual observation of portions of Chinook salmon fisheries in three Idaho river systems over an 18-d period. Based on data from the angling populations, Monte Carlo simulations were performed to evaluate the properties of the catch rate estimators and survey designs. Among the three estimators, the ROM estimator provided the most accurate and precise estimates of mean catch rate and total catch for both roving–roving and roving–access surveys. On average, the root mean square error of simulated total catch estimates was 1.42 times greater and relative bias was 160.13 times greater for roving–roving surveys than for roving–access surveys. Length-of-stay bias and nonstationary catch rates in roving–roving surveys both appeared to affect catch rate and total catch estimates. Our results suggest that use of the ROM estimator in combination with an estimate of angler effort provided the least biased and most precise estimates of total catch for both survey designs. However, roving–access surveys were more accurate than roving–roving surveys for Chinook salmon fisheries in Idaho.

  18. Change in fat-free mass assessed by bioelectrical impedance, total body potassium and dual energy X-ray absorptiometry during prolonged weight loss

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendel, H W; Gotfredsen, A; Højgaard, L

    1996-01-01

    A total of 16 obese women (body mass index (BMI) 30-43 kg m(-2)) participated in a weight reduction study. Before and after a weight loss of 11.7 +/- 7.4 kg (mean +/- SD), body composition was assessed by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and total body potassium counting (TBK). These measu......A total of 16 obese women (body mass index (BMI) 30-43 kg m(-2)) participated in a weight reduction study. Before and after a weight loss of 11.7 +/- 7.4 kg (mean +/- SD), body composition was assessed by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and total body potassium counting (TBK......). These measurements were compared with bioimpedance analysis (BIA) by applying 11 predictive BIA equations published in the literature. Predictive equations for the present study population were developed, with the use of fat-free mass (FFM) as assessed by TBK and DXA as references in multiple regression analysis....... The results of the BIA equations varied widely; FFM was generally overestimated by BIA as compared with DXA and TBK before and after weight loss. During weight loss, the FFM did not change, as estimated by DXA (1.3 +/- 2.3 kg, p > 0.05) and TBK (0.9 +/- 2.9 kg, p > 0.05). The recorded change in impedance (R...

  19. Soil loss estimation using geographic information system in enfraz watershed for soil conservation planning in highlands of Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gizachew Tiruneh

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Accelerated soil erosion is a worldwide problem because of its economic and environmental impacts. Enfraz watershed is one of the most erosion-prone watersheds in the highlands of Ethiopia, which received little attention. This study was, therefore, carried out to spatially predict the soil loss rate of the watershed with a Geographic Information System (GIS and Remote Sensing (RS. Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE adapted to Ethiopian conditions was used to estimate potential soil losses by utilizing information on rainfall erosivity (R using interpolation of rainfall data, soil erodibility (K using soil map, vegetation cover (C using satellite images, topography (LS using Digital Elevation Model (DEM and conservation practices (P using satellite images. Based on the analysis, about 92.31% (5914.34 ha of the watershed was categorized none to slight class which under soil loss tolerance (SLT values ranging from 5 to 11 tons ha-1 year-1. The remaining 7.68% (492.21 ha of land was classified under moderate to high class about several times the maximum tolerable soil loss. The total and an average amount of soil loss estimated by RUSLE from the watershed was 30,836.41 ton year-1 and 4.81 tons ha-1year-1, respectively.

  20. Loss of life estimation-Review, developments and challenges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkman, S.N.; Maaskant, B.; Kolen, B.; Needham, J. T Jason

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an overview and review of methods developed for loss of life estimation in flood risk assessment. These methods range from empirical to simulation based approaches that are used to support flood risk analyses and emergency management. Similarities and differences between the

  1. Continuing versus discontinuing antiplatelet drugs, vasodilators, and/or cerebral ameliorators on perioperative total blood loss in total knee arthroplasty without pneumatic tourniquet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sachiyuki Tsukada, MD

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Although studies have supported the utility of perioperative continuation of antiplatelet drugs, vasodilators, and cerebral ameliorators in most procedures, no study compared total volume of blood loss after total knee arthroplasty (TKA in patients continuing and discontinuing these drugs. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 266 consecutive patients undergoing TKA, and included 67 patients (25.2% taking antiplatelet drugs, vasodilators, or cerebral ameliorators in this study. All TKAs were performed without a pneumatic tourniquet. The primary outcome was perioperative total blood loss calculated from blood volume and change in hemoglobin. As subgroup analysis, we compared perioperative total blood loss in patients taking antiplatelet drugs. Results: There was no significant difference between the continuing group (n = 38 and discontinuing group (n = 29 in terms of the perioperative total blood loss (1025 ± 364 vs 1151 ± 327 mL, respectively; mean difference 126 mL; 95% confidence interval −45 to 298 mL; P = .15. No major bleeding or thrombotic events occurred in either group until postoperative 3-month follow-up. In patients taking antiplatelet drugs (n = 51, no significant difference was observed in the total blood loss between the continuing group (n = 30 and discontinuing group (n = 21 (1056 ± 287 vs 1151 ± 305 mL, respectively; mean difference 95 mL; 95% confidence interval −75 to 264 mL; P = .27. Conclusions: No significant differences in terms of perioperative total blood loss were observed between patients continuing and discontinuing study drugs. Continuing these drugs may be preferable in the perioperative period of TKA. Keywords: Knee, Primary arthroplasty, Bleeding events, Thrombotic events, Noncardiac surgery

  2. BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THE SHAPE PARAMETER OF THE GENERALISED EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION UNDER DIFFERENT LOSS FUNCTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SANKU DEY

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The generalized exponential (GE distribution proposed by Gupta and Kundu (1999 is an important lifetime distribution in survival analysis. In this article, we propose to obtain Bayes estimators and its associated risk based on a class of  non-informative prior under the assumption of three loss functions, namely, quadratic loss function (QLF, squared log-error loss function (SLELF and general entropy loss function (GELF. The motivation is to explore the most appropriate loss function among these three loss functions. The performances of the estimators are, therefore, compared on the basis of their risks obtained under QLF, SLELF and GELF separately. The relative efficiency of the estimators is also obtained. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the performances of the Bayes estimates under different situations.

  3. An Evaluation of Intra‑ and Post‑operative Blood Loss in Total Hip ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-05-18

    May 18, 2017 ... Results: The mean intra‑ and post‑operative blood losses were 1222.7 ... To evaluate blood loss after total hip replacement. 2. To evaluate the .... 12.3. 4.2. 0.1. Median. 400.0. 150.0. 20.0. 3.0. Mode. 400.0. 100.0. 0.0. 3.0. SD.

  4. Energetic Particle Loss Estimates in W7-X

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazerson, Samuel; Akaslompolo, Simppa; Drevlak, Micheal; Wolf, Robert; Darrow, Douglass; Gates, David; W7-X Team

    2017-10-01

    The collisionless loss of high energy H+ and D+ ions in the W7-X device are examined using the BEAMS3D code. Simulations of collisionless losses are performed for a large ensemble of particles distributed over various flux surfaces. A clear loss cone of particles is present in the distribution for all particles. These simulations are compared against slowing down simulations in which electron impact, ion impact, and pitch angle scattering are considered. Full device simulations allow tracing of particle trajectories to the first wall components. These simulations provide estimates for placement of a novel set of energetic particle detectors. Recent performance upgrades to the code are allowing simulations with > 1000 processors providing high fidelity simulations. Speedup and future works are discussed. DE-AC02-09CH11466.

  5. False high level in total bilirubin estimation in nonicteric serum

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    estimation of total bilirubin by DiaSys and Randox reagents along with simultaneous re-estimation by Roche reagents in ... been used mainly due to slightly lower cost in ... MATERIALS AND METHODS ... air-conditioned laboratory overnight. ..... Elevated IgG causing spurious elevation in serum total bilirubin assay. Asia.

  6. PFP total operating efficiency calculation and basis of estimate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SINCLAIR, J.C.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) Total Operating Efficiency Calculation and Basis of Estimate document is to provide the calculated value and basis of estimate for the Total Operating Efficiency (TOE) for the material stabilization operations to be conducted in 234-52 Building. This information will be used to support both the planning and execution of the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) Stabilization and Deactivation Project's (hereafter called the Project) resource-loaded, integrated schedule

  7. Thermal hydraulic analysis of aggressive secondary cooldown in a small break loss of coolant accident with a total loss of high pressure safety injection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Seok Jung; Lim, Ho Gon; Yang, Joon Eon

    2003-01-01

    To support the development of a Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) model usable in Riskinformed Applications (RIA) for Korea Standard Nuclear power Plants (KSNP), we have performed a thermal hydraulic analysis of Aggressive Secondary Cooldown (ASC) in a 2-inch Small Break Loss Of Coolant Accident (SBLOCA) with a total loss of High Pressure Safety Injection (HPSI). The present study focuses on the estimation of the success criteria of ASC, and the enhanced understanding of the detailed thermal hydraulic behavior and phenomena. The results have shown that the Reactor Coolant System (RCS) pressure can be reduced to the Low Pressure Safety Injection (LPSI) operation conditions without core damage. It was also shown that more relaxed success criteria compared to those in the previous PSA models of KSNP could be used in the new PSA model. However, it was found that the results could be affected by various parameters related with ASC operation, i.e., reference temperature for the calculation of the cooldown rate and its control method

  8. How acute total sleep loss affects the attending brain: a meta-analysis of neuroimaging studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Ning; Dinges, David F; Basner, Mathias; Rao, Hengyi

    2015-02-01

    Attention is a cognitive domain that can be severely affected by sleep deprivation. Previous neuroimaging studies have used different attention paradigms and reported both increased and reduced brain activation after sleep deprivation. However, due to large variability in sleep deprivation protocols, task paradigms, experimental designs, characteristics of subject populations, and imaging techniques, there is no consensus regarding the effects of sleep loss on the attending brain. The aim of this meta-analysis was to identify brain activations that are commonly altered by acute total sleep deprivation across different attention tasks. Coordinate-based meta-analysis of neuroimaging studies of performance on attention tasks during experimental sleep deprivation. The current version of the activation likelihood estimation (ALE) approach was used for meta-analysis. The authors searched published articles and identified 11 sleep deprivation neuroimaging studies using different attention tasks with a total of 185 participants, equaling 81 foci for ALE analysis. The meta-analysis revealed significantly reduced brain activation in multiple regions following sleep deprivation compared to rested wakefulness, including bilateral intraparietal sulcus, bilateral insula, right prefrontal cortex, medial frontal cortex, and right parahippocampal gyrus. Increased activation was found only in bilateral thalamus after sleep deprivation compared to rested wakefulness. Acute total sleep deprivation decreases brain activation in the fronto-parietal attention network (prefrontal cortex and intraparietal sulcus) and in the salience network (insula and medial frontal cortex). Increased thalamic activation after sleep deprivation may reflect a complex interaction between the de-arousing effects of sleep loss and the arousing effects of task performance on thalamic activity. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

  9. Prediction equation for estimating total daily energy requirements of special operations personnel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barringer, N D; Pasiakos, S M; McClung, H L; Crombie, A P; Margolis, L M

    2018-01-01

    Special Operations Forces (SOF) engage in a variety of military tasks with many producing high energy expenditures, leading to undesired energy deficits and loss of body mass. Therefore, the ability to accurately estimate daily energy requirements would be useful for accurate logistical planning. Generate a predictive equation estimating energy requirements of SOF. Retrospective analysis of data collected from SOF personnel engaged in 12 different SOF training scenarios. Energy expenditure and total body water were determined using the doubly-labeled water technique. Physical activity level was determined as daily energy expenditure divided by resting metabolic rate. Physical activity level was broken into quartiles (0 = mission prep, 1 = common warrior tasks, 2 = battle drills, 3 = specialized intense activity) to generate a physical activity factor (PAF). Regression analysis was used to construct two predictive equations (Model A; body mass and PAF, Model B; fat-free mass and PAF) estimating daily energy expenditures. Average measured energy expenditure during SOF training was 4468 (range: 3700 to 6300) Kcal·d- 1 . Regression analysis revealed that physical activity level ( r  = 0.91; P  plan appropriate feeding regimens to meet SOF nutritional requirements across their mission profile.

  10. Estimation of the energy loss at the blades in rowing: common assumptions revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmijster, Mathijs; De Koning, Jos; Van Soest, A J

    2010-08-01

    In rowing, power is inevitably lost as kinetic energy is imparted to the water during push-off with the blades. Power loss is estimated from reconstructed blade kinetics and kinematics. Traditionally, it is assumed that the oar is completely rigid and that force acts strictly perpendicular to the blade. The aim of the present study was to evaluate how reconstructed blade kinematics, kinetics, and average power loss are affected by these assumptions. A calibration experiment with instrumented oars and oarlocks was performed to establish relations between measured signals and oar deformation and blade force. Next, an on-water experiment was performed with a single female world-class rower rowing at constant racing pace in an instrumented scull. Blade kinematics, kinetics, and power loss under different assumptions (rigid versus deformable oars; absence or presence of a blade force component parallel to the oar) were reconstructed. Estimated power losses at the blades are 18% higher when parallel blade force is incorporated. Incorporating oar deformation affects reconstructed blade kinematics and instantaneous power loss, but has no effect on estimation of power losses at the blades. Assumptions on oar deformation and blade force direction have implications for the reconstructed blade kinetics and kinematics. Neglecting parallel blade forces leads to a substantial underestimation of power losses at the blades.

  11. The impact of a and b value uncertainty on loss estimation in the reinsurance industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Streit

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available In the reinsurance industry different probabilistic models are currently used for seismic risk analysis. A credible loss estimation of the insured values depends on seismic hazard analysis and on the vulnerability functions of the given structures. Besides attenuation and local soil amplification, the earthquake occurrence model (often represented by the Gutenberg and Richter relation is a key element in the analysis. However, earthquake catalogues are usually incomplete, the time of observation is too short and the data themselves contain errors. Therefore, a and b values can only be estimated with uncertainties. The knowledge of their variation provides a valuable input for earthquake risk analysis, because they allow the probability distribution of expected losses (expressed by Average Annual Loss (AAL to be modelled. The variations of a and b have a direct effect on the estimated exceeding probability and consequently on the calculated loss level. This effect is best illustrated by exceeding probability versus loss level and AAL versus magnitude graphs. The sensitivity of average annual losses due to different a to b ratios and magnitudes is obvious. The estimation of the variation of a and b and the quantification of the sensitivity of calculated losses are fundamental for optimal earthquake risk management. Ignoring these uncertainties means that risk management decisions neglect possible variations of the earthquake loss estimations.

  12. Investigating the impact of uneven magnetic flux density distribution on core loss estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niroumand, Farideh Javidi; Nymand, Morten; Wang, Yiren

    2017-01-01

    is calculated according to an effective flux density value and the macroscopic dimensions of the cores. However, the flux distribution in the core can alter by core shapes and/or operating conditions due to nonlinear material properties. This paper studies the element-wise estimation of the loss in magnetic......There are several approaches for loss estimation in magnetic cores, and all these approaches highly rely on accurate information about flux density distribution in the cores. It is often assumed that the magnetic flux density evenly distributes throughout the core and the overall core loss...

  13. Recent applications for rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses with ELER Software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demircioglu, M.B.; Erdik, M.; Kamer, Y.; Sesetyan, K.; Tuzun, C.

    2012-01-01

    A methodology and software package entitled Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine (ELER) was developed for rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses throughout the Euro-Mediterranean region. The work was carried out under the Joint Research Activity-3 (JRA3) of the EC FP6 project entitled Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology (NERIES). The ELER methodology anticipates: 1) finding of the most likely location of the source of the earthquake using regional seismo-tectonic data base; 2) estimation of the spatial distribution of selected ground motion parameters at engineering bedrock through region specific ground motion prediction models, bias-correcting the ground motion estimations with strong ground motion data, if available; 3) estimation of the spatial distribution of site-corrected ground motion parameters using regional geology database using appropriate amplification models; and 4) estimation of the losses and uncertainties at various orders of sophistication (buildings, casualties). The multi-level methodology developed for real time estimation of losses is capable of incorporating regional variability and sources of uncertainty stemming from ground motion predictions, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships which are coded into ELER. The present paper provides brief information on the methodology of ELER and provides an example application with the recent major earthquake that hit the Van province in the east of Turkey on 23 October 2011 with moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.2. For this earthquake, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) provided almost real time estimations in terms of building damage and casualty distribution using ELER. (author)

  14. Estimation of Transformer Parameters and Loss Analysis for High Voltage Capacitor Charging Application

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thummala, Prasanth; Schneider, Henrik; Ouyang, Ziwei

    2013-01-01

    In a bi-directional DC-DC converter for capacitive charging application, the losses associated with the transformer makes it a critical component. In order to calculate the transformer losses, its parameters such as AC resistance, leakage inductance and self capacitance of the high voltage (HV......) winding has to be estimated accurately. This paper analyzes the following losses of bi-directional flyback converter namely switching loss, conduction loss, gate drive loss, transformer core loss, and snubber loss, etc. Iterative analysis of transformer parameters viz., AC resistance, leakage inductance...

  15. Estimation of organic carbon loss potential in north of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahriari, A.; Khormali, F.; Kehl, M.; Welp, G.; Scholz, Ch.

    2009-04-01

    The development of sustainable agricultural systems requires techniques that accurately monitor changes in the amount, nature and breakdown rate of soil organic matter and can compare the rate of breakdown of different plant or animal residues under different management systems. In this research, the study area includes the southern alluvial and piedmont plains of Gorgan River extended from east to west direction in Golestan province, Iran. Samples from 10 soil series and were collected from cultivation depth (0-30 cm). Permanganate-oxidizable carbon (POC) an index of soil labile carbon, was used to show soil potential loss of organic carbon. In this index shows the maximum loss of OC in a given soil. Maximum loss of OC for each soil series was estimated through POC and bulk density (BD). The potential loss of OC were estimated between 1253263 and 2410813 g/ha Carbon. Stable organic constituents in the soil include humic substances and other organic macromolecules that are intrinsically resistant against microbial attack, or that are physically protected by adsorption on mineral surfaces or entrapment within clay and mineral aggregates. However, the (Clay + Silt)/OC ratio had a negative significant (p < 0.001) correlation with POC content, confirming the preserving effect of fine particle.

  16. ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS AND RELIABILITY FUNCTION OF EXPONENTIATED EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION: BAYESIAN APPROACH UNDER GENERAL ENTROPY LOSS FUNCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjay Kumar Singh

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available In this Paper we propose Bayes estimators of the parameters of Exponentiated Exponential distribution and Reliability functions under General Entropy loss function for Type II censored sample. The proposed estimators have been compared with the corresponding Bayes estimators obtained under Squared Error loss function and maximum likelihood estimators for their simulated risks (average loss over sample space.

  17. Estimation of fluctuation in restricted energy loss

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doke, T.; Hayashi, T.; Nagata, K.

    1983-01-01

    Restricted Energy Loss (REL) is defined as an energy loss [(dE/dX)/sub E//sub delta/<ν/] that produced the delta-rays of energies less than some specified energy ν and is often used as a simple measure of track structure. For example, REL is a measure of track formation threshold in plastic track detector and the growth rate of track in chemical etching solution is considered to depend only on REL given along the track. Using a stack of elastic sheets, recently, it became possible to identify isotopes of incident particles. In that case, the limit of mass resolution is determined by fluctuation of REL in the length of etch pit produced along the path of particle. A computer program was developed to calculate the probability distribution for energy deposition in absorber allowing for electron escape. In this calculation, it is assumed that all electrons with energies greater than a certain value epsilon/sub d/ escape. This means that this calculation directly gives the fluctuation of REL. Therefore, we tried to use the computer program to estimate the ultimate mass resolution in plastic detector. In this paper, we show firstly the comparison of ASB's calculation with the experimental results obtained by a gas counter and next the results of estimation of ultimate mass resolution in plastic detectors

  18. Earthquake loss estimation for a gas lifeline transportation system in Colombia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamin, L.E.; Arambula, S.; Reyes, J.C. [Universidad de los Andes, Bogota (Colombia). Centro de Innovacion y Desarrollo Tecnologico; Belage, S.; Vega, A.; Gil, W. [TransGas de Occidente S.A., Bogota (Colombia)

    2004-07-01

    Methodologies are needed to estimate the seismic risk facing natural gas distribution systems in Colombia in order to establish insurance strategies, risk assessments and emergency plans. This study estimated the maximum probable losses associated with Colombia's 770 km long gas transportation system which stretches from Mariquita to Cali. The pipeline is vulnerable to seismic events, volcanic eruptions, extreme hydrological conditions, and their associated effects such as landslides, liquefaction and avalanches. A geographic information system (GIS) which includes seismic, volcanic, landslide and liquefaction hazards was used to estimate earthquake loss estimates for the natural gas distribution system. Elastic and inelastic finite element methods were used to evaluate the vulnerability of pipelines, bridges, underground crossings and valves. The results were incorporated into the GIS and were used to quantify the probable maximum losses for the system, the most critical associated event, the system's critical zones and the probable damage scenarios. The information was used to define insurance strategies, emergency and contingency plans. It was concluded that due to natural hazards, the natural gas distribution system is at moderate risk despite the low vulnerability of its components. Volcanic eruptions and large earthquakes could produce indirect phenomena such as landslides and liquefaction which could greatly influence the system and which would require adequate risk management. 14 refs., 1 tab., 8 figs.

  19. Preventing land loss in coastal Louisiana: estimates of WTP and WTA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrolia, Daniel R; Kim, Tae-Goun

    2011-03-01

    A dichotomous-choice contingent-valuation survey was conducted in the State of Louisiana (USA) to estimate compensating surplus (CS) and equivalent surplus (ES) welfare measures for the prevention of future coastal wetland losses in Louisiana. Valuations were elicited using both willingness to pay (WTP) and willingness to accept compensation (WTA) payment vehicles. Mean CS (WTP) estimates based on a probit model using a Box-Cox specification on income was $825 per household annually, and mean ES (WTA) was estimated at $4444 per household annually. Regression results indicate that the major factors influencing support for land-loss prevention were income (positive, WTP model only), perceived hurricane protection benefits (positive), environmental and recreation protection (positive), distrust of government (negative), age (positive, WTA model only), and race (positive for whites). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Bayesian Estimation of Two-Parameter Weibull Distribution Using Extension of Jeffreys' Prior Information with Three Loss Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Bambey Guure

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The Weibull distribution has been observed as one of the most useful distribution, for modelling and analysing lifetime data in engineering, biology, and others. Studies have been done vigorously in the literature to determine the best method in estimating its parameters. Recently, much attention has been given to the Bayesian estimation approach for parameters estimation which is in contention with other estimation methods. In this paper, we examine the performance of maximum likelihood estimator and Bayesian estimator using extension of Jeffreys prior information with three loss functions, namely, the linear exponential loss, general entropy loss, and the square error loss function for estimating the two-parameter Weibull failure time distribution. These methods are compared using mean square error through simulation study with varying sample sizes. The results show that Bayesian estimator using extension of Jeffreys' prior under linear exponential loss function in most cases gives the smallest mean square error and absolute bias for both the scale parameter α and the shape parameter β for the given values of extension of Jeffreys' prior.

  1. The South African Tuberculosis Care Cascade: Estimated Losses and Methodological Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naidoo, Pren; Theron, Grant; Rangaka, Molebogeng X; Chihota, Violet N; Vaughan, Louise; Brey, Zameer O; Pillay, Yogan

    2017-11-06

    While tuberculosis incidence and mortality are declining in South Africa, meeting the goals of the End TB Strategy requires an invigorated programmatic response informed by accurate data. Enumerating the losses at each step in the care cascade enables appropriate targeting of interventions and resources. We estimated the tuberculosis burden; the number and proportion of individuals with tuberculosis who accessed tests, had tuberculosis diagnosed, initiated treatment, and successfully completed treatment for all tuberculosis cases, for those with drug-susceptible tuberculosis (including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-coinfected cases) and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis. Estimates were derived from national electronic tuberculosis register data, laboratory data, and published studies. The overall tuberculosis burden was estimated to be 532005 cases (range, 333760-764480 cases), with successful completion of treatment in 53% of cases. Losses occurred at multiple steps: 5% at test access, 13% at diagnosis, 12% at treatment initiation, and 17% at successful treatment completion. Overall losses were similar among all drug-susceptible cases and those with HIV coinfection (54% and 52%, respectively, successfully completed treatment). Losses were substantially higher among rifampicin- resistant cases, with only 22% successfully completing treatment. Although the vast majority of individuals with tuberculosis engaged the public health system, just over half were successfully treated. Urgent efforts are required to improve implementation of existing policies and protocols to close gaps in tuberculosis diagnosis, treatment initiation, and successful treatment completion. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

  2. Calorie Estimation in Adults Differing in Body Weight Class and Weight Loss Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Ruth E; Canning, Karissa L; Fung, Michael; Jiandani, Dishay; Riddell, Michael C; Macpherson, Alison K; Kuk, Jennifer L

    2016-03-01

    Ability to accurately estimate calories is important for weight management, yet few studies have investigated whether individuals can accurately estimate calories during exercise or in a meal. The objective of this study was to determine if accuracy of estimation of moderate or vigorous exercise energy expenditure and calories in food is associated with body weight class or weight loss status. Fifty-eight adults who were either normal weight (NW) or overweight (OW), and either attempting (WL) or not attempting weight loss (noWL), exercised on a treadmill at a moderate (60% HRmax) and a vigorous intensity (75% HRmax) for 25 min. Subsequently, participants estimated the number of calories they expended through exercise and created a meal that they believed to be calorically equivalent to the exercise energy expenditure. The mean difference between estimated and measured calories in exercise and food did not differ within or between groups after moderate exercise. After vigorous exercise, OW-noWL overestimated energy expenditure by 72% and overestimated the calories in their food by 37% (P food compared with both WL groups (P food. There was a wide range of underestimation and overestimation of calories during exercise and in a meal. Error in calorie estimation may be greater in overweight adults who are not attempting weight loss.

  3. Assessment of Corrosion, Fretting, and Material Loss of Retrieved Modular Total Knee Arthroplasties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Audrey J; Seagers, Kirsten A; Van Citters, Douglas W

    2017-07-01

    Modular junctions in total hip arthroplasties have been associated with fretting, corrosion, and debris release. The purpose of this study is to analyze damage severity in total knee arthroplasties of a single design by qualitative visual assessment and quantitative material loss measurements to evaluate implant performance and patient impact via material loss. Twenty-two modular knee retrievals of the same manufacturer were identified from an institutional review board-approved database. Junction designs included tapers with an axial screw and tapers with a radial screw. Constructs consisted of 2 metal alloys: CoCr and Ti6Al4V. Components were qualitatively scored and quantitatively measured for corrosion and fretting. Negative values represent adhered material. Statistical differences were analyzed using sign tests. Correlations were tested with a Spearman rank order test (P corrosion than other components, suggesting preferential corrosion when interfacing with Ti6Al4V. Overall, although corrosion was noted in this series, material loss was low, and none were revised for clinical metal-related reaction. This suggests the clinical impact from corrosion in total knee arthroplasty is low. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Nitrogen losses from dairy manure estimated through nitrogen mass balance and chemical markers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristov, Alexander N.; Zaman, S.; Vander Pol, M.; Ndegwa, P.; Campbell, L.; Silva, S.

    2009-01-01

    Ammonia is an important air and water pollutant, but the spatial variation in its concentrations presents technical difficulties in accurate determination of ammonia emissions from animal feeding operations. The objectives of this study were to investigate the relationship between ammonia volatilization and ??15N of dairy manure and the feasibility of estimating ammonia losses from a dairy facility using chemical markers. In Exp. 1, the N/P ratio in manure decreased by 30% in 14 d as cumulative ammonia losses increased exponentially. Delta 15N of manure increased throughout the course of the experiment and ??15N of emitted ammonia increased (p < 0.001) quadratically from -31??? to -15 ???. The relationship between cumulative ammonia losses and ??15N of manure was highly significant (p < 0.001; r2 = 0.76). In Exp. 2, using a mass balance approach, approximately half of the N excreted by dairy cows (Bos taurus) could not be accounted for in 24 h. Using N/P and N/K ratios in fresh and 24-h manure, an estimated 0.55 and 0.34 (respectively) of the N excreted with feces and urine could not be accounted for. This study demonstrated that chemical markers (P, K) can be successfully used to estimate ammonia losses from cattle manure. The relationship between manure ??15N and cumulative ammonia loss may also be useful for estimating ammonia losses. Although promising, the latter approach needs to be further studied and verified in various experimental conditions and in the field. Copyright ?? 2009 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

  5. 'Shrink' losses in commercially sized corn silage piles: Quantifying total losses and where they occur.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, P H; Swanepoel, N; Heguy, J M; Price, T; Meyer, D M

    2016-01-15

    Silage 'shrink' (i.e., loss of fresh chopped crop between ensiling and feedout) represents a nutrient loss which can degrade air quality as volatile carbon compounds, degrade surface waterways due to seepage, or degrade aquifers due to seepage. Virtually no research has documented shrink in large silage piles. The term 'shrink' is often ill defined, but can be expressed as losses of wet weight (WW), oven dry matter (oDM), and oDM corrected for volatiles lost in the drying oven (vcoDM). Corn silage piles (4 wedge, 2 rollover/wedge, 1 bunker) from 950 to 12,204 tonnes as built, on concrete (4), soil (2) and a combination (1) in California's San Joaquin Valley, using a bacterial inoculant, covered within 24 h with an oxygen barrier inner film and black/white outer plastic, fed out using large front end loaders through an electronic feed tracking system, and from the 2013 crop year, were used. Shrink as WW, oDM and vcoDM were 90±17, 68±18 and 28±21 g/kg, suggesting that much WW shrink is water and much oDM shrink is volatiles lost during analytical oven drying. Most shrink occurred in the silage mass with losses from exposed silage faces, as well as between exposed face silage removal and the total mixed ration mixer, being low. Silage bulk density, exposed silage face management and face use rate did not have obvious impacts on any shrink measure, but age of the silage pile during silage feedout impacted shrink losses ('older' silage piles being higher), but most strongly for WW shrink. Real shrink losses (i.e., vcoDM) of large well managed corn silage piles are low, the exposed silage face is a small portion of losses, and many proposed shrink mitigations appeared ineffective, possibly because shrink was low overall and they are largely directed at the exposed silage face. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Estimation of Total Tree Height from Renewable Resources Evaluation Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles E. Thomas

    1981-01-01

    Many ecological, biological, and genetic studies use the measurement of total tree height. Until recently, the Southern Forest Experiment Station's inventory procedures through Renewable Resources Evaluation (RRE) have not included total height measurements. This note provides equations to estimate total height based on other RRE measurements.

  7. Estimating head and frictional losses through pipe fittings in building ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    By extending pipe length by equal increments, with corresponding increments in number of sanitary appliances and total water flow rates to a water distribution system of a building, fractions of the total frictional loss throu-gh pipe fittings for varying work complexities were obtained. The fractions varied from 0.342 to 0.377 as ...

  8. Estimates of Ionospheric Transport and Ion Loss at Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cravens, T. E.; Hamil, O.; Houston, S.; Bougher, S.; Ma, Y.; Brain, D.; Ledvina, S.

    2017-10-01

    Ion loss from the topside ionosphere of Mars associated with the solar wind interaction makes an important contribution to the loss of volatiles from this planet. Data from NASA's Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution mission combined with theoretical modeling are now helping us to understand the processes involved in the ion loss process. Given the complexity of the solar wind interaction, motivation exists for considering a simple approach to this problem and for understanding how the loss rates might scale with solar wind conditions and solar extreme ultraviolet irradiance. This paper reviews the processes involved in the ionospheric dynamics. Simple analytical and semiempirical expressions for ion flow speeds and ion loss are derived. In agreement with more sophisticated models and with purely empirical studies, it is found that the oxygen loss rate from ion transport is about 5% (i.e., global O ion loss rate of Qion ≈ 4 × 1024 s-1) of the total oxygen loss rate. The ion loss is found to approximately scale as the square root of the solar ionizing photon flux and also as the square root of the solar wind dynamic pressure. Typical ion flow speeds are found to be about 1 km/s in the topside ionosphere near an altitude of 300 km on the dayside. Not surprisingly, the plasma flow speed is found to increase with altitude due to the decreasing ion-neutral collision frequency.

  9. [Single intravenous tranexamic acid dose to reduce blood loss in primary total knee replacement].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanz-Reig, J; Parra Ruiz, B; Ferrández Martínez, J; Martínez López, J F

    2016-01-01

    To evaluate the effectiveness and safety of a single intravenous dose of tranexamic acid in order to reduce blood loss in total knee replacement. Prospective observational study of the administration of tranexamic acid in patients undergoing primary total knee arthroplasty from November 2013 to February 2015, in which an autologous blood recovery system was used. The study included 98 patients, distributed into two groups of 49 patients according to whether or not they received intravenous tranexamic acid. The primary endpoint was the number of patients requiring autologous transfusion from the recovery system autologous blood recovery system. No drop-outs were recorded during follow-up. There were no significant differences between groups as regards the preoperative and hospital variables. The mean preoperative haemoglobin and haematocrit at 24 and 48 hours postoperatively were similar in both groups. The average volume of bleeding in the autologous blood recovery system and estimated average blood loss was lower in patients who had been administered tranexamic acid, with significant differences. No patients in the group that was administered tranexamic acid required blood autotransfusion. The transfusion rate was zero in the two groups. No adverse events related to the administration of tranexamic acid were recorded. Intravenous administration of tranexamic acid, according to the described protocol, has presented a non-autotransfusion or allo-transfusion rate of 100%, with no increased incidence of thrombotic events. Thus, its use in this group of patients is recommended. The indication should be individualized, its use justified in the patient medical records, and informed consent is mandatory. Copyright © 2015 SECOT. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  10. Quantifying Blood Loss and Transfusion Risk After Primary vs Conversion Total Hip Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Jared M; Webb, Matthew R; Klika, Alison K; Murray, Trevor G; Barsoum, Wael K; Higuera, Carlos A

    2017-06-01

    Primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) and conversion THA may result in substantial blood loss, sometimes necessitating transfusion. Despite the complexities of the latter, both are grouped in the same category for quality assessment and reimbursement. This study's purpose was to compare both blood loss and transfusion risk in primary and conversion THA and identify their associated predictors. A total of 1616 patients who underwent primary and conversion THA at a single hospital from 2009-2013 were reviewed (primary THA = 1575; conversion THA = 41). Demographics, comorbidities, and perioperative data were collected from electronic records. Blood loss was calculated using a validated method. Transfusion triggers were based on standardized criteria. Separate multivariable regression models for blood loss and transfusion were performed. Conversion THA patients were younger (P = .002), had lower age-adjusted Charlson scores (P = .006), longer surgeries (P quantified in the present study and showed consistent results between the 2 metrics. The differences between these procedures should be addressed during quality assurance because conversion THA is associated with higher resource utilization, which is important in the allocation of resources and tiered reimbursement strategies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. [New non-volumetric method for estimating peroperative blood loss].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tachoires, D; Mourot, F; Gillardeau, G

    1979-01-01

    The authors have developed a new method for the estimation of peroperative blood loss by measurement of the haematocrit of a fluid obtained by diluting the blood from swabs in a known volume of isotonic saline solution. This value, referred to a monogram, may be used to assess the volume of blood impregnating the compresses, in relation to the pre-operative or present haematocrit of the patient, by direct reading. The precision of the method is discussed. The results obtained justified its routine application in surgery in children, patients with cardiac failure and in all cases requiring precise compensation of per-operative blood loss.

  12. Estimated costs of Sustaining Agricultural Production Through Erosional Control and Replenishment of Nutrient Losses in Kenya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onyango, J.W.

    1999-01-01

    Soil erosion is one of the major causes of nutrient depletion in sub-Saharan Africa. Highlights of losses from erosion can be used to explain why agricultural production in this region is not sustainable. annual macronutrient losses were calculated from experimental results at 8 sites in Kenya between 1986 and 1990. these losses were used along with the current local prices of fertiliser to estimate the annual national budget required for there replenishment. On average, 5.72, 29.3 and 0.82 kg ha -1 yr -1 of N, P and K, respectively, were lost annually. These losses are determined by soil types, slope, crop cover characteristics and rainfall amounts. soil losses can be reduced by terracing, contour farming and intercropping to improve crop cover. These efforts reduce the adverse effects of sporadic rainfall on fragile soil types. in order to ensure sustainability however, control measures have to be supplemented by national additions of 64 000 t, 323 000 t and 10 000 t of N, P and K respectively per year. The equivalent costs of these fertilisers will be Ksh 1,408 Ksh 8721 Ksh 220 million for the respective nutrients. This would require a total of some US$256 million (Ksh 10 349 million) annually from the national budget

  13. Epsilon Aminocaproic Acid to Reduce Blood Loss and Transfusion After Total Hip and Total Knee Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbs, Juliann C; Welsby, Ian J; Green, Cynthia L; Dhakal, Ishwori B; Wellman, Samuel S

    2018-01-01

    Total hip and knee arthroplasty (THA and TKA) are associated with significant blood loss and some patients require postoperative blood transfusion. While tranexamic acid has been studied extensively among this population, we tested the hypothesis that epsilon aminocaproic acid (EACA) can reduce blood loss and transfusion after joint arthroplasty. In April 2014, our Veterans Affairs Medical Center introduced a protocol to administer EACA during THA and TKA. No antifibrinolytics were used previously. We retrospectively compared blood loss and incidence of transfusion among patients who underwent primary arthroplasty in the year before standardized administration of EACA with patients having the same procedures the following year. Blood loss was measured as delta hemoglobin (preoperative hemoglobin - hemoglobin on postoperative day 1). All patients undergoing primary THA or TKA were included. Patients having revision surgery were excluded. We identified 185 primary arthroplasty patients from the year before and 184 from the year after introducing the EACA protocol. There were no changes in surgical technique or attending surgeons during this period. Delta hemoglobin was significantly lower in the EACA group (2.7 ± 0.8 mg/dL) compared to the control group (3.4 ± 1.1 mg/dL) (P blood transfusion was also significantly lower in the EACA group (2.7%) compared to the control group (25.4%) (P transfusion following introduction of the EACA protocol in patients undergoing primary arthroplasty. EACA offers a lower cost alternative to TXA for reducing blood loss and transfusion in this population. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  14. Estimating loss of Brucella abortus antibodies from age-specific serological data in elk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benavides, J. A.; Caillaud, D.; Scurlock, B. M.; Maichak, E. J.; Edwards, W.H.; Cross, Paul C.

    2017-01-01

    Serological data are one of the primary sources of information for disease monitoring in wildlife. However, the duration of the seropositive status of exposed individuals is almost always unknown for many free-ranging host species. Directly estimating rates of antibody loss typically requires difficult longitudinal sampling of individuals following seroconversion. Instead, we propose a Bayesian statistical approach linking age and serological data to a mechanistic epidemiological model to infer brucellosis infection, the probability of antibody loss, and recovery rates of elk (Cervus canadensis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that seroprevalence declined above the age of ten, with no evidence of disease-induced mortality. The probability of antibody loss was estimated to be 0.70 per year after a five-year period of seropositivity and the basic reproduction number for brucellosis to 2.13. Our results suggest that individuals are unlikely to become re-infected because models with this mechanism were unable to reproduce a significant decline in seroprevalence in older individuals. This study highlights the possible implications of antibody loss, which could bias our estimation of critical epidemiological parameters for wildlife disease management based on serological data.

  15. Relative contributions of wind and water erosion to total soil loss and its effect on soil properties in sloping croplands of the Chinese Loess Plateau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuo, Dengfeng; Xu, Mingxiang; Gao, Guangyao

    2018-08-15

    Wind and water erosion are two dominant types of erosion that lead to soil and nutrient losses. Wind and water erosion may occur simultaneously to varying extents in semi-arid regions. The contributions of wind and water erosion to total erosion and their effects on soil quality, however, remains elusive. We used cesium-137 ( 137 Cs) inventories to estimate the total soil erosion and used the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to quantify water erosion in sloping croplands. Wind erosion was estimated from the subtraction of the two. We also used 137 Cs inventories to calculate total soil erosion and validate the relationships of the soil quality and erosion at different slope aspects and positions. The results showed that wind erosion (1460tkm -2 a -1 ) on northwest-facing slope was responsible for approximately 39.7% of the total soil loss, and water erosion (2216tkm -2 a -1 ) accounted for approximately 60.3%. The erosion rates were 58.8% higher on northwest- than on southeast-facing slopes. Northwest-facing slopes had lower soil organic carbon, total nitrogen, clay, and silt contents than southeast-facing slopes, and thus, the 137 Cs inventories were lower, and the total soil erosions were higher on the northwest-facing slopes. The variations in soil physicochemical properties were related to total soil erosion. The lowest 137 Cs inventories and nutrient contents were recorded at the upper positions on the northwest-facing slopes due to the successive occurrence of more severe wind and water erosion at the same site. The results indicated that wind and water could accelerate the spatial variability of erosion rate and soil properties and cause serious decreases in the nutrient contents in sloping fields. Our research could help researchers develop soil strategies to reduce soil erosion according to the dominant erosion type when it occurs in a hilly agricultural area. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Disparities in total knee replacement: Population losses in quality-adjusted life years due to differential offer, acceptance, and complication rates for Black Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerman, Hannah M; Smith, Savannah R; Smith, Karen C; Collins, Jamie E; Suter, Lisa G; Katz, Jeffrey N; Losina, Elena

    2018-01-24

    Total knee replacement (TKR) is an effective treatment for end-stage knee osteoarthritis (OA). American racial minorities undergo fewer TKRs than Whites. We estimated quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost for Black knee OA patients due to differences in TKR offer, acceptance, and complication rates. We used the Osteoarthritis Policy Model, a computer simulation of knee OA, to predict QALY outcomes for Black and White knee OA patients with and without TKR. We estimated per-person QALYs gained from TKR as the difference between QALYs with current TKR use and QALYs when no TKR was performed. We estimated average, per-person QALY losses in Blacks as the difference between QALYs gained with White rates of TKR and QALYs gained with Black rates of TKR. We calculated population-level QALY losses by multiplying per-person QALY losses by the number of persons with advanced knee OA. Finally, we estimated QALYs lost specifically due to lower TKR offer and acceptance and higher complications among Black knee OA patients. Black men and women gain 64,100 QALYs from current TKR use. With white offer and complications rates, they would gain an additional 72,000 QALYs. Because these additional gains are unrealized, we call this a loss of 72,000 QALYs. Black Americans lose 67,500 QALYs because of lower offer, 15,800 QALYs because of lower acceptance, and 2,600 QALYs because of higher complications. Black Americans lose 72,000 QALYs due to disparities in TKR offer and complication rates. Programs to decrease disparities in TKR use are urgently needed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  17. Estimating the welfare loss to households from natural disasters in developing countries: a contingent valuation study of flooding in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navrud, Ståle; Tuan, Tran Huu; Tinh, Bui Duc

    2012-01-01

    Background Natural disasters have severe impacts on the health and well-being of affected households. However, we find evidence that official damage cost assessments for floods and other natural disasters in Vietnam, where households have little or no insurance, clearly underestimate the total economic damage costs of these events as they do not include the welfare loss from mortality, morbidity and well-being experienced by the households affected by the floods. This should send a message to the local communities and national authorities that higher investments in flood alleviation, reduction and adaptive measures can be justified since the social benefits of these measures in terms of avoided damage costs are higher than previously thought. Methods We pioneer the use of the contingent valuation (CV) approach of willingness-to-contribute (WTC) labour to a flood prevention program, as a measure of the welfare loss experienced by household due to a flooding event. In a face-to-face household survey of 706 households in the Quang Nam province in Central Vietnam, we applied this approach together with reported direct physical damage in order to shed light of the welfare loss experienced by the households. We asked about households’ WTC labour and multiplied their WTC person-days of labour by an estimate for their opportunity cost of time in order to estimate the welfare loss to households from the 2007 floods. Results The results showed that this contingent valuation (CV) approach of asking about willingness-to-pay in-kind avoided the main problems associated with applying CV in developing countries. Conclusion Thus, the CV approach of WTC labour instead of money is promising in terms of capturing the total welfare loss of natural disasters, and promising in terms of further application in other developing countries and for other types of natural disasters. PMID:22761603

  18. Directional maximum likelihood self-estimation of the path-loss exponent

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hu, Y.; Leus, G.J.T.; Dong, Min; Zheng, Thomas Fang

    2016-01-01

    The path-loss exponent (PLE) is a key parameter in wireless propagation channels. Therefore, obtaining the knowledge of the PLE is rather significant for assisting wireless communications and networking to achieve a better performance. Most existing methods for estimating the PLE not only require

  19. Use of Annual Phosphorus Loss Estimator (APLE) Model to Evaluate a Phosphorus Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiorellino, Nicole M; McGrath, Joshua M; Vadas, Peter A; Bolster, Carl H; Coale, Frank J

    2017-11-01

    The Phosphorus (P) Index was developed to provide a relative ranking of agricultural fields according to their potential for P loss to surface water. Recent efforts have focused on updating and evaluating P Indices against measured or modeled P loss data to ensure agreement in magnitude and direction. Following a recently published method, we modified the Maryland P Site Index (MD-PSI) from a multiplicative to a component index structure and evaluated the MD-PSI outputs against P loss data estimated by the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model, a validated, field-scale, annual P loss model. We created a theoretical dataset of fields to represent Maryland conditions and scenarios and created an empirical dataset of soil samples and management characteristics from across the state. Through the evaluation process, we modified a number of variables within the MD-PSI and calculated weighting coefficients for each P loss component. We have demonstrated that our methods can be used to modify a P Index and increase correlation between P Index output and modeled P loss data. The methods presented here can be easily applied in other states where there is motivation to update an existing P Index. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  20. Estimating insured residential losses from large flood scenarios on the Tone River, Japan - a data integration approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, T.; McAneney, K. J.; Chen, K.

    2011-12-01

    Flooding on the Tone River, which drains the largest catchment area in Japan and is now home to 12 million people, poses significant risk to the Greater Tokyo Area. In April 2010, an expert panel in Japan, the Central Disaster Prevention Council, examined the potential for large-scale flooding and outlined possible mitigation measures in the Greater Tokyo Area. One of the scenarios considered closely mimics the pattern of flooding that occurred with the passage of Typhoon Kathleen in 1947 and would potentially flood some 680 000 households above floor level. Building upon that report, this study presents a Geographical Information System (GIS)-based data integration approach to estimate the insurance losses for residential buildings and contents as just one component of the potential financial cost. Using a range of publicly available data - census information, location reference data, insurance market information and flood water elevation data - this analysis finds that insurance losses for residential property alone could reach approximately 1 trillion JPY (US 12.5 billion). Total insurance losses, including commercial and industrial lines of business, are likely to be at least double this figure with total economic costs being much greater again. The results are sensitive to the flood scenario assumed, position of levee failures, local flood depths and extents, population and building heights. The Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) of the rainfall following Typhoon Kathleen has been estimated to be on the order of 200 yr; however, at this juncture it is not possible to put an ARI on the modelled loss since we cannot know the relative or joint probability of the different flooding scenarios. It is possible that more than one of these scenarios could occur simultaneously or that levee failure at one point might lower water levels downstream and avoid a failure at all other points. In addition to insurance applications, spatial analyses like that presented here have

  1. Procedure for estimating permanent total enclosure costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lukey, M.E.; Prasad, C.; Toothman, D.A.; Kaplan, N.

    1999-07-01

    Industries that use add-on control devices must adequately capture emissions before delivering them to the control device. One way to capture emissions is to use permanent total enclosures (PTEs). By definition, an enclosure which meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's five-point criteria is a PTE and has a capture efficiency of 100%. Since costs play an important role in regulatory development, in selection of control equipment, and in control technology evaluations for permitting purposes, EPA has developed a Control Cost Manual for estimating costs of various items of control equipment. EPA's Manual does not contain any methodology for estimating PTE costs. In order to assist environmental regulators and potential users of PTEs, a methodology for estimating PTE costs was developed under contract with EPA, by Pacific Environmental Services, Inc. (PES) and is the subject of this paper. The methodology for estimating PTE costs follows the approach used for other control devices in the Manual. It includes procedures for sizing various components of a PTE and for estimating capital as well as annual costs. It contains verification procedures for demonstrating compliance with EPA's five-point criteria. In addition, procedures are included to determine compliance with Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) standards. Meeting these standards is an important factor in properly designing PTEs. The methodology is encoded in Microsoft Exel spreadsheets to facilitate cost estimation and PTE verification. Examples are given throughout the methodology development and in the spreadsheets to illustrate the PTE design, verification, and cost estimation procedures.

  2. Procedure for estimating permanent total enclosure costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lukey, M E; Prasad, C; Toothman, D A; Kaplan, N

    1999-07-01

    Industries that use add-on control devices must adequately capture emissions before delivering them to the control device. One way to capture emissions is to use permanent total enclosures (PTEs). By definition, an enclosure which meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's five-point criteria is a PTE and has a capture efficiency of 100%. Since costs play an important role in regulatory development, in selection of control equipment, and in control technology evaluations for permitting purposes, EPA has developed a Control Cost Manual for estimating costs of various items of control equipment. EPA's Manual does not contain any methodology for estimating PTE costs. In order to assist environmental regulators and potential users of PTEs, a methodology for estimating PTE costs was developed under contract with EPA, by Pacific Environmental Services, Inc. (PES) and is the subject of this paper. The methodology for estimating PTE costs follows the approach used for other control devices in the Manual. It includes procedures for sizing various components of a PTE and for estimating capital as well as annual costs. It contains verification procedures for demonstrating compliance with EPA's five-point criteria. In addition, procedures are included to determine compliance with Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) standards. Meeting these standards is an important factor in properly designing PTEs. The methodology is encoded in Microsoft Exel spreadsheets to facilitate cost estimation and PTE verification. Examples are given throughout the methodology development and in the spreadsheets to illustrate the PTE design, verification, and cost estimation procedures.

  3. PFP total process throughput calculation and basis of estimate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SINCLAIR, J.C.

    1999-01-01

    The PFP Process Throughput Calculation and Basis of Estimate document provides the calculated value and basis of estimate for process throughput associated with material stabilization operations conducted in 234-52 Building. The process throughput data provided reflects the best estimates of material processing rates consistent with experience at the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) and other U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sites. The rates shown reflect demonstrated capacity during ''full'' operation. They do not reflect impacts of building down time. Therefore, these throughput rates need to have a Total Operating Efficiency (TOE) factor applied

  4. Tourniquets do not increase the total blood loss or re-amputation risk in transtibial amputations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wied, Christian; Tengberg, Peter T; Holm, Gitte

    2017-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the total blood loss (TBL) and the safety with respect to the re-amputation rate after transtibial amputation (TTA) conducted with and without a tourniquet. METHODS: The study was a single-centre retrospective cohort study of patients with a primary TTA admitted between January...... 2013 and April 2015. All patients with a primary TTA were assessed for inclusion if the amputation was performed because of arteriosclerosis or diabetic complications. All patients underwent a standardized TTA procedure that was performed approximately 10 cm below the knee joint and performed...... portion, which equals 55 g/L of haemoglobin. The TBL during the first four postoperative days was calculated based on the haemoglobin level and the estimated blood volume. The re-amputation rate was evaluated within 30 d. RESULTS: Seventy-four out of 86 consecutive patients who underwent TTA within...

  5. Estimation of Total Nitrogen and Phosphorus in New England Streams Using Spatially Referenced Regression Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Richard Bridge; Johnston, Craig M.; Robinson, Keith W.; Deacon, Jeffrey R.

    2004-01-01

    phosphorus model include discharges for municipal wastewater-treatment facilities and pulp and paper facilities, developed land area, agricultural area, and forested area. For total phosphorus, loss rates were significant for reservoirs with surface areas of 10 square kilometers or less, and in streams with flows less than or equal to 2.83 cubic meters per second. Applications of SPARROW for evaluating nutrient loading in New England waters include estimates of the spatial distributions of total nitrogen and phosphorus yields, sources of the nutrients, and the potential for delivery of those yields to receiving waters. This information can be used to (1) predict ranges in nutrient levels in surface waters, (2) identify the environmental variables that are statistically significant predictors of nutrient levels in streams, (3) evaluate monitoring efforts for better determination of nutrient loads, and (4) evaluate management options for reducing nutrient loads to achieve water-quality goals.

  6. BN-FLEMOps pluvial - A probabilistic multi-variable loss estimation model for pluvial floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roezer, V.; Kreibich, H.; Schroeter, K.; Doss-Gollin, J.; Lall, U.; Merz, B.

    2017-12-01

    Pluvial flood events, such as in Copenhagen (Denmark) in 2011, Beijing (China) in 2012 or Houston (USA) in 2016, have caused severe losses to urban dwellings in recent years. These floods are caused by storm events with high rainfall rates well above the design levels of urban drainage systems, which lead to inundation of streets and buildings. A projected increase in frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events in many areas and an ongoing urbanization may increase pluvial flood losses in the future. For an efficient risk assessment and adaptation to pluvial floods, a quantification of the flood risk is needed. Few loss models have been developed particularly for pluvial floods. These models usually use simple waterlevel- or rainfall-loss functions and come with very high uncertainties. To account for these uncertainties and improve the loss estimation, we present a probabilistic multi-variable loss estimation model for pluvial floods based on empirical data. The model was developed in a two-step process using a machine learning approach and a comprehensive database comprising 783 records of direct building and content damage of private households. The data was gathered through surveys after four different pluvial flood events in Germany between 2005 and 2014. In a first step, linear and non-linear machine learning algorithms, such as tree-based and penalized regression models were used to identify the most important loss influencing factors among a set of 55 candidate variables. These variables comprise hydrological and hydraulic aspects, early warning, precaution, building characteristics and the socio-economic status of the household. In a second step, the most important loss influencing variables were used to derive a probabilistic multi-variable pluvial flood loss estimation model based on Bayesian Networks. Two different networks were tested: a score-based network learned from the data and a network based on expert knowledge. Loss predictions are made

  7. Methods of multicriterion estimations in system total quality management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolay V. Diligenskiy

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available In this article the method of multicriterion comparative estimation of efficiency (Data Envelopment Analysis and possibility of its application in system of total quality management is considered.

  8. Estimates of Annual Soil Loss Rates in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grasiela de Oliveira Rodrigues Medeiros

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: Soil is a natural resource that has been affected by human pressures beyond its renewal capacity. For this reason, large agricultural areas that were productive have been abandoned due to soil degradation, mainly caused by the erosion process. The objective of this study was to apply the Universal Soil Loss Equation to generate more recent estimates of soil loss rates for the state of São Paulo using a database with information from medium resolution (30 m. The results showed that many areas of the state have high (critical levels of soil degradation due to the predominance of consolidated human activities, especially in growing sugarcane and pasture use. The average estimated rate of soil loss is 30 Mg ha-1 yr-1 and 59 % of the area of the state (except for water bodies and urban areas had estimated rates above 12 Mg ha-1 yr-1, considered as the average tolerance limit in the literature. The average rates of soil loss in areas with annual agricultural crops, semi-perennial agricultural crops (sugarcane, and permanent agricultural crops were 118, 78, and 38 Mg ha-1 yr-1 respectively. The state of São Paulo requires attention to conservation of soil resources, since most soils led to estimates beyond the tolerance limit.

  9. Production loss due to new subclinical mastitis in Dutch dairy cows estimated iwth a test-day model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Halasa, T.; Nielen, M.; Roos, de S.; Hoorne, van R.; Jong, de G.; Lam, T.J.G.M.; Werven, van T.; Hogeveen, H.

    2009-01-01

    Milk, fat, and protein loss due to a new subclinical mastitis case may be economically important, and the objective of this study was to estimate this loss. The loss was estimated based on test-day (TD) cow records collected over a 1-yr period from 400 randomly selected Dutch dairy herds. After

  10. Thermal-hydraulic analysis of total loss of steam generator feed water in WWER-440

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sabotinov, L.; Cadet-Mercier, S.

    2001-01-01

    The analysis is carried out for a WWER-440/V270 with upgraded primary safety valves (replacement of the existing PRZ safety valves with Pilot Operated Relief Valves (PORV) of the type SEBIM (France)) The current analysis is focused on the scenario 'Total Loss of SGs Feed Water' with application of the operator action of primary system 'Feed and Bleed' in order to check the effectiveness of the installed pressurizer SEBIM valves and to verify that the operator can cool down the reactor system and cope with this accident. The calculations have been performed at the Institute of Protection and Nuclear Safety (IPSN) in Fontenay-aux-Roses with the computer code CATHARE 2 Version 1.3L1. CATHARE is a French best estimate thermal-hydraulic program for accident analysis in the light water nuclear reactors, developed with the participation of the IPSN (Institut de Protection et Surete Nucleaire), CEA (Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique), Framatome and EdF (Electricite de France). (author)

  11. Estimating tag loss of the Atlantic Horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, using a multi-state model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Catherine Alyssa; McGowan, Conor P.; Grand, James B.; Smith, David

    2012-01-01

    The Atlantic Horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, is a valuable resource along the Mid-Atlantic coast which has, in recent years, experienced new management paradigms due to increased concern about this species role in the environment. While current management actions are underway, many acknowledge the need for improved and updated parameter estimates to reduce the uncertainty within the management models. Specifically, updated and improved estimates of demographic parameters such as adult crab survival in the regional population of interest, Delaware Bay, could greatly enhance these models and improve management decisions. There is however, some concern that difficulties in tag resighting or complete loss of tags could be occurring. As apparent from the assumptions of a Jolly-Seber model, loss of tags can result in a biased estimate and underestimate a survival rate. Given that uncertainty, as a first step towards estimating an unbiased estimate of adult survival, we first took steps to estimate the rate of tag loss. Using data from a double tag mark-resight study conducted in Delaware Bay and Program MARK, we designed a multi-state model to allow for the estimation of mortality of each tag separately and simultaneously.

  12. A simulation of Earthquake Loss Estimation in Southeastern Korea using HAZUS and the local site classification Map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, S.; Kim, K.

    2013-12-01

    Regionally varying seismic hazards can be estimated using an earthquake loss estimation system (e.g. HAZUS-MH). The estimations for actual earthquakes help federal and local authorities develop rapid, effective recovery measures. Estimates for scenario earthquakes help in designing a comprehensive earthquake hazard mitigation plan. Local site characteristics influence the ground motion. Although direct measurements are desirable to construct a site-amplification map, such data are expensive and time consuming to collect. Thus we derived a site classification map of the southern Korean Peninsula using geologic and geomorphologic data, which are readily available for the entire southern Korean Peninsula. Class B sites (mainly rock) are predominant in the area, although localized areas of softer soils are found along major rivers and seashores. The site classification map is compared with independent site classification studies to confirm our site classification map effectively represents the local behavior of site amplification during an earthquake. We then estimated the losses due to a magnitude 6.7 scenario earthquake in Gyeongju, southeastern Korea, with and without the site classification map. Significant differences in loss estimates were observed. The loss without the site classification map decreased without variation with increasing epicentral distance, while the loss with the site classification map varied from region to region, due to both the epicentral distance and local site effects. The major cause of the large loss expected in Gyeongju is the short epicentral distance. Pohang Nam-Gu is located farther from the earthquake source region. Nonetheless, the loss estimates in the remote city are as large as those in Gyeongju and are attributed to the site effect of soft soil found widely in the area.

  13. Icing losses on wind turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duncan, T.; Fotsing, I.; Pearson, S. [Garrad Hassan Canada Inc., Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    This PowerPoint presentation discussed some of the energy losses that can occur as a result of icing on wind turbines. Airfoil deterioration can occur in the presence of rime and glaze ice. Anemometers are also impacted by ice, and shut-downs can occur as a result of icing events. Availability deficits that occur during the winter months can lead to annual energy losses of 0.5 percent. The impact of icing events on total wind power energy production in Quebec is estimated at between 1.3 percent to 2.7 percent. Ice loss estimates are considered during the pre-construction phases of wind power projects. However, ice loss prediction methods are often inaccurate. Studies have demonstrated that preconstruction masts show a reasonable correlation with wind turbine icing, and that icing losses are site-specific. tabs., figs.

  14. Regional economic activity and absenteeism: a new approach to estimating the indirect costs of employee productivity loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bankert, Brian; Coberley, Carter; Pope, James E; Wells, Aaron

    2015-02-01

    This paper presents a new approach to estimating the indirect costs of health-related absenteeism. Productivity losses related to employee absenteeism have negative business implications for employers and these losses effectively deprive the business of an expected level of employee labor. The approach herein quantifies absenteeism cost using an output per labor hour-based method and extends employer-level results to the region. This new approach was applied to the employed population of 3 health insurance carriers. The economic cost of absenteeism was estimated to be $6.8 million, $0.8 million, and $0.7 million on average for the 3 employers; regional losses were roughly twice the magnitude of employer-specific losses. The new approach suggests that costs related to absenteeism for high output per labor hour industries exceed similar estimates derived from application of the human capital approach. The materially higher costs under the new approach emphasize the importance of accurately estimating productivity losses.

  15. ‘Shrink’ losses in commercially sized corn silage piles: Quantifying total losses and where they occur

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robinson, P.H.; Swanepoel, N.; Heguy, J.M.; Price, T.; Meyer, D.M., E-mail: phrobinson@ucdavis.edu [Department of Animal Science, UCCE Stanislaus, San Joaquin & Merced Counties, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States)

    2016-01-15

    Silage ‘shrink’ (i.e., loss of fresh chopped crop between ensiling and feedout) represents a nutrient loss which can degrade air quality as volatile carbon compounds, degrade surface waterways due to seepage, or degrade aquifers due to seepage. Virtually no research has documented shrink in large silage piles. The term ‘shrink’ is often ill defined, but can be expressed as losses of wet weight (WW), oven dry matter (oDM), and oDM corrected for volatiles lost in the drying oven (vcoDM). Corn silage piles (4 wedge, 2 rollover/wedge, 1 bunker) from 950 to 12,204 tonnes as built, on concrete (4), soil (2) and a combination (1) in California's San Joaquin Valley, using a bacterial inoculant, covered within 24 h with an oxygen barrier inner film and black/white outer plastic, fed out using large front end loaders through an electronic feed tracking system, and from the 2013 crop year, were used. Shrink as WW, oDM and vcoDM were 90 ± 17, 68 ± 18 and 28 ± 21 g/kg, suggesting that much WW shrink is water and much oDM shrink is volatiles lost during analytical oven drying. Most shrink occurred in the silage mass with losses from exposed silage faces, as well as between exposed face silage removal and the total mixed ration mixer, being low. Silage bulk density, exposed silage face management and face use rate did not have obvious impacts on any shrink measure, but age of the silage pile during silage feedout impacted shrink losses (‘older’ silage piles being higher), but most strongly for WW shrink. Real shrink losses (i.e., vcoDM) of large well managed corn silage piles are low, the exposed silage face is a small portion of losses, and many proposed shrink mitigations appeared ineffective, possibly because shrink was low overall and they are largely directed at the exposed silage face. - Highlights: • Corn silage piles were used to measure ‘shrink’ from construction to feedout • Shrink was wet weight, dry weight (oDM) and oDM volatiles corrected

  16. Application of the control variate technique to estimation of total sensitivity indices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kucherenko, S.; Delpuech, B.; Iooss, B.; Tarantola, S.

    2015-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is widely used in many areas of science, biology, sociology and policy planning. The variance-based methods also known as Sobol' sensitivity indices has become the method of choice among practitioners due to its efficiency and ease of interpretation. For complex practical problems, estimation of Sobol' sensitivity indices generally requires a large number of function evaluations to achieve reasonable convergence. To improve the efficiency of the Monte Carlo estimates for the Sobol' total sensitivity indices we apply the control variate reduction technique and develop a new formula for evaluation of total sensitivity indices. Presented results using well known test functions show the efficiency of the developed technique. - Highlights: • We analyse the efficiency of the Monte Carlo estimates of Sobol' sensitivity indices. • The control variate technique is applied for estimation of total sensitivity indices. • We develop a new formula for evaluation of Sobol' total sensitivity indices. • We present test results demonstrating the high efficiency of the developed formula

  17. Binomial distribution of Poisson statistics and tracks overlapping probability to estimate total tracks count with low uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khayat, Omid; Afarideh, Hossein; Mohammadnia, Meisam

    2015-01-01

    In the solid state nuclear track detectors of chemically etched type, nuclear tracks with center-to-center neighborhood of distance shorter than two times the radius of tracks will emerge as overlapping tracks. Track overlapping in this type of detectors causes tracks count losses and it becomes rather severe in high track densities. Therefore, tracks counting in this condition should include a correction factor for count losses of different tracks overlapping orders since a number of overlapping tracks may be counted as one track. Another aspect of the problem is the cases where imaging the whole area of the detector and counting all tracks are not possible. In these conditions a statistical generalization method is desired to be applicable in counting a segmented area of the detector and the results can be generalized to the whole surface of the detector. Also there is a challenge in counting the tracks in densely overlapped tracks because not sufficient geometrical or contextual information are available. It this paper we present a statistical counting method which gives the user a relation between the tracks overlapping probabilities on a segmented area of the detector surface and the total number of tracks. To apply the proposed method one can estimate the total number of tracks on a solid state detector of arbitrary shape and dimensions by approximating the tracks averaged area, whole detector surface area and some orders of tracks overlapping probabilities. It will be shown that this method is applicable in high and ultra high density tracks images and the count loss error can be enervated using a statistical generalization approach. - Highlights: • A correction factor for count losses of different tracks overlapping orders. • For the cases imaging the whole area of the detector is not possible. • Presenting a statistical generalization method for segmented areas. • Giving a relation between the tracks overlapping probabilities and the total tracks

  18. Estimated losses of energy in a power system using a semi-statistical methodology; Estimacion de perdidas de energia en un sistema electrico de potencia mediante una metodologia semi-estadistica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez Martinez, D [Centro Universitario UAEM, Valle de Teotihuacan (Mexico)]. E-mail: david_2mtz@hotmail.com; Martinez Lendech, J.F [Instituto Tecnologico de Estudios Superiores del Oriente del Estado de Hidalgo (Mexico)]. E-mail: mrtzlendech@hotmail.com; Garcia Herrera, C; Olvera Ricano, J.G. [Centro Universitario UAEM, Valle de Teotihuacan (Mexico)]. E-mails: cozobi_garcia@yahoo.com.mx; jgolverar@uaemex.mx

    2013-03-15

    Determination of electrical losses is one of the most important tasks for any enterprise dedicated to generation, transmission, transformation and/or distribution of electric energy. Any enterprise dedicated to these activities does continuously energy balances in order to estimate whole electrical losses of specific processes. However, it is necessary to classify the whole electrical losses into technical and non-technical losses. This paper presents a proposal for estimating technical and non-technical losses in an electrical power system. [Spanish] La determinacion de las perdidas de energia electrica es una de las labores mas importantes en cualquier empresa dedicada a la generacion, transmision, transformacion y/o distribucion de energia electrica. Es indudable que toda empresa dedicada a cualquiera de las actividades mencionadas anteriormente realiza periodicamente balances de energia que permiten estimar el valor de las perdidas totales de energia del proceso considerado. No obstante, para poder realizar un mejor analisis de la problematica de las perdidas de energia, es necesario separar el valor total de perdidas obtenido mediante un balance de energia, en perdidas tecnicas y perdidas no tecnicas. El presente trabajo presenta una propuesta para la estimacion de perdidas tecnicas y no tecnicas en un sistema electrico de potencia.

  19. Novel point estimation from a semiparametric ratio estimator (SPRE): long-term health outcomes from short-term linear data, with application to weight loss in obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weissman-Miller, Deborah

    2013-11-02

    Point estimation is particularly important in predicting weight loss in individuals or small groups. In this analysis, a new health response function is based on a model of human response over time to estimate long-term health outcomes from a change point in short-term linear regression. This important estimation capability is addressed for small groups and single-subject designs in pilot studies for clinical trials, medical and therapeutic clinical practice. These estimations are based on a change point given by parameters derived from short-term participant data in ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. The development of the change point in initial OLS data and the point estimations are given in a new semiparametric ratio estimator (SPRE) model. The new response function is taken as a ratio of two-parameter Weibull distributions times a prior outcome value that steps estimated outcomes forward in time, where the shape and scale parameters are estimated at the change point. The Weibull distributions used in this ratio are derived from a Kelvin model in mechanics taken here to represent human beings. A distinct feature of the SPRE model in this article is that initial treatment response for a small group or a single subject is reflected in long-term response to treatment. This model is applied to weight loss in obesity in a secondary analysis of data from a classic weight loss study, which has been selected due to the dramatic increase in obesity in the United States over the past 20 years. A very small relative error of estimated to test data is shown for obesity treatment with the weight loss medication phentermine or placebo for the test dataset. An application of SPRE in clinical medicine or occupational therapy is to estimate long-term weight loss for a single subject or a small group near the beginning of treatment.

  20. Multicomponent seismic loss estimation on the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Turkey)

    Science.gov (United States)

    karimzadeh Naghshineh, S.; Askan, A.; Erberik, M. A.; Yakut, A.

    2015-12-01

    Seismic loss estimation is essential to incorporate seismic risk of structures into an efficient decision-making framework. Evaluation of seismic damage of structures requires a multidisciplinary approach including earthquake source characterization, seismological prediction of earthquake-induced ground motions, prediction of structural responses exposed to ground shaking, and finally estimation of induced damage to structures. As the study region, Erzincan, a city on the eastern part of Turkey is selected which is located in the conjunction of three active strike-slip faults as North Anatolian Fault, North East Anatolian Fault and Ovacik fault. Erzincan city center is in a pull-apart basin underlain by soft sediments that has experienced devastating earthquakes such as the 27 December 1939 (Ms=8.0) and the 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6) events, resulting in extensive amount of physical as well as economical losses. These losses are attributed to not only the high seismicity of the area but also as a result of the seismic vulnerability of the constructed environment. This study focuses on the seismic damage estimation of Erzincan using both regional seismicity and local building information. For this purpose, first, ground motion records are selected from a set of scenario events simulated with the stochastic finite fault methodology using regional seismicity parameters. Then, existing building stock are classified into specified groups represented with equivalent single-degree-of-freedom systems. Through these models, the inelastic dynamic structural responses are investigated with non-linear time history analysis. To assess the potential seismic damage in the study area, fragility curves for the classified structural types are derived. Finally, the estimated damage is compared with the observed damage during the 1992 Erzincan earthquake. The results are observed to have a reasonable match indicating the efficiency of the ground motion simulations and building analyses.

  1. Estimating insured residential losses from large flood scenarios on the Tone River, Japan – a data integration approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Okada

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Flooding on the Tone River, which drains the largest catchment area in Japan and is now home to 12 million people, poses significant risk to the Greater Tokyo Area. In April 2010, an expert panel in Japan, the Central Disaster Prevention Council, examined the potential for large-scale flooding and outlined possible mitigation measures in the Greater Tokyo Area. One of the scenarios considered closely mimics the pattern of flooding that occurred with the passage of Typhoon Kathleen in 1947 and would potentially flood some 680 000 households above floor level. Building upon that report, this study presents a Geographical Information System (GIS-based data integration approach to estimate the insurance losses for residential buildings and contents as just one component of the potential financial cost. Using a range of publicly available data – census information, location reference data, insurance market information and flood water elevation data – this analysis finds that insurance losses for residential property alone could reach approximately 1 trillion JPY (US$ 12.5 billion. Total insurance losses, including commercial and industrial lines of business, are likely to be at least double this figure with total economic costs being much greater again. The results are sensitive to the flood scenario assumed, position of levee failures, local flood depths and extents, population and building heights. The Average Recurrence Interval (ARI of the rainfall following Typhoon Kathleen has been estimated to be on the order of 200 yr; however, at this juncture it is not possible to put an ARI on the modelled loss since we cannot know the relative or joint probability of the different flooding scenarios. It is possible that more than one of these scenarios could occur simultaneously or that levee failure at one point might lower water levels downstream and avoid a failure at all other points. In addition to insurance applications, spatial analyses like

  2. Analysis of cell flow and cell loss following X-irradiation using sequential investigation of the total number of cells in the various parts of the cell cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skog, S.; Tribukait, B.

    1985-01-01

    The cell flow and cell loss of an in vivo growing Ehrlich ascites tumour were calculated by sequential estimation of changes in total number of cells in the cell cycle compartments. Normal growth was compared with the grossly disturbed cell flow evident after a 5 Gy X-irradiation. The doubling time of normal, exponentially growing cells was 24 hr. The generation time was 21 hr and the potential doubling time was 21 hr. Thus, the growth fraction was 1.0 and the cell loss rate about 0.5%/hr. Following irradiation, a transiently increased relative outflow rate from all cell cycle compartments was found at about 3 and 40 hr, and from S phase at 24 hr after irradiation. Increase in cell loss as well as non-viable cells was observed at 24 hr after irradiation at the time of release of the irradiation-induced G 2 blockage. The experiments show the applicability and limitations of cell flow and cell loss calculations by sequential analysis of the total number of cells in the various parts of the cell cycle. (author)

  3. Estimating total 239240Pu in blow-sand mounds of two safety-shot sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, R.O.; Essington, E.H.

    1977-01-01

    A study for estimating the total amount (inventory) of 239 240 Pu in blow-sand mounds at two safety-shot sites (Area 13-Project 57 on the Nellis Air Force Base and Clean Slate 3 on the Tonopah Test Range in Nevada) is described. The total amount in blow-sand mounds at these two sites is estimated to be 5.8 +- 1.3 (total +- standard error) and 10.6 +- 2.5 curies, respectively. The total 239 240 Pu in mounds plus desert pavement areas, both to a depth of 5 cm below desert pavement level, is estimated to be 39 +- 5.7 curies at the Project 57 site and 36 +- 4.8 curies at Clean Slate 3. These estimates are compared with the somewhat higher estimates of 46 +- 9 and 37 +- 5.4 curies reported that pertain to only the top 5 cm of mounds and desert pavement. The possibility is discussed that these differences are due to sampling variability arising from the skewed nature of plutonium concentrations, particularly near ground zero

  4. Losses in variable fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bronca, G.; Fevrier, A.; Genevey, P.; Perot, J.

    1974-01-01

    After a recall of the theory of losses in type 11 superconductors and review of recent work on this topic, the characteristics of what should be an ideal conductor for a pulsed magnet are given. The requirements of pulsed magnets for high energy physics are reviewed and total losses for a 1000 GeV synchrotron estimated. Finally, recent results of prototypes are reported along with the projects of superconducting synchrotron accelerators through the world. (author)

  5. Total serum bilirubin levels and sensorineural hearing loss in the US adolescents: NHANES 2007-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Guoli; Fu, Wenjiang

    2018-02-01

    We aimed to investigate whether current levels of total serum bilirubin are associated with different subtypes of sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL) in adolescents. A set of cross-sectional data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (2007-2010) was used. A subset of 1404 adolescents was sampled for measurements of total serum bilirubin, tympanometry, and average pure tone threshold at low-frequencies (LPTA: 500, 1000, 2000 Hz) or high-frequencies (HPTA: 3000, 4000, 6000, and 8000 Hz). SNHL was defined as the hearing loss that had type A tympanograms with a peak admittance of 0.3 ml or greater. Associations between serum bilirubin (square-root transformed) and different subtypes of SNHL were evaluated using binary or multinomial logistic regression models with 4-year sampling weights. The bootstrap method was used for estimation of variance and 10-fold cross-validation for assessment of overfitting issue. Total serum bilirubin levels were found to be associated with any high-frequency (HPTA>15 dB in at least one ear, adjusted odds-ratio (OR a )(bootstrap 95% confidence interval) = 3.29(1.31-8.19), p = 0.011), but not with any low-frequency (LPTA>15 dB in at least one ear), SNHL in the US adolescents. Furthermore, high-frequency SNHL with HPTA>15 dB in both ears (bilateral) or HPTA≥25 dB in at least one ear, compared to that with HPTA>15 dB in one ear only (unilateral) or HPTA = 15-25 dB in at least one ear, had a stronger association with total serum bilirubin levels (OR a  = 5.37(1.27-22.65), p = 0.022 for bilateral; OR a  = 2.64(0.84-8.25), p = 0.094 for unilateral; OR a  = 5.00(0.95-26.58), p = 0.058 for HPTA≥25 dB in at least one ear; as well as OR a  = 3.06(1.15-8.25), p = 0.025 for HPTA = 15-25 dB in at least one ear). No severe overfitting problems were found. Our findings suggest that current levels of total serum bilirubin may be informative in predicting and/or targeting high-frequency SNHL

  6. Loss of life estimation – Review, developments and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonkman S.N. (Bas

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an overview and review of methods developed for loss of life estimation in flood risk assessment. These methods range from empirical to simulation based approaches that are used to support flood risk analyses and emergency management. Similarities and differences between the modelling approaches, input and output types and applications are discussed. Challenges to the field are summarized, including empirical data collection for validation and benchmarking and comparison studies.

  7. Estimated Intakes and Sources of Total and Added Sugars in the Canadian Diet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tristin D. Brisbois

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available National food supply data and dietary surveys are essential to estimate nutrient intakes and monitor trends, yet there are few published studies estimating added sugars consumption. The purpose of this report was to estimate and trend added sugars intakes and their contribution to total energy intake among Canadians by, first, using Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS nutrition survey data of intakes of sugars in foods and beverages, and second, using Statistics Canada availability data and adjusting these for wastage to estimate intakes. Added sugars intakes were estimated from CCHS data by categorizing the sugars content of food groups as either added or naturally occurring. Added sugars accounted for approximately half of total sugars consumed. Annual availability data were obtained from Statistics Canada CANSIM database. Estimates for added sugars were obtained by summing the availability of “sugars and syrups” with availability of “soft drinks” (proxy for high fructose corn syrup and adjusting for waste. Analysis of both survey and availability data suggests that added sugars average 11%–13% of total energy intake. Availability data indicate that added sugars intakes have been stable or modestly declining as a percent of total energy over the past three decades. Although these are best estimates based on available data, this analysis may encourage the development of better databases to help inform public policy recommendations.

  8. Estimated intakes and sources of total and added sugars in the Canadian diet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brisbois, Tristin D; Marsden, Sandra L; Anderson, G Harvey; Sievenpiper, John L

    2014-05-08

    National food supply data and dietary surveys are essential to estimate nutrient intakes and monitor trends, yet there are few published studies estimating added sugars consumption. The purpose of this report was to estimate and trend added sugars intakes and their contribution to total energy intake among Canadians by, first, using Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) nutrition survey data of intakes of sugars in foods and beverages, and second, using Statistics Canada availability data and adjusting these for wastage to estimate intakes. Added sugars intakes were estimated from CCHS data by categorizing the sugars content of food groups as either added or naturally occurring. Added sugars accounted for approximately half of total sugars consumed. Annual availability data were obtained from Statistics Canada CANSIM database. Estimates for added sugars were obtained by summing the availability of "sugars and syrups" with availability of "soft drinks" (proxy for high fructose corn syrup) and adjusting for waste. Analysis of both survey and availability data suggests that added sugars average 11%-13% of total energy intake. Availability data indicate that added sugars intakes have been stable or modestly declining as a percent of total energy over the past three decades. Although these are best estimates based on available data, this analysis may encourage the development of better databases to help inform public policy recommendations.

  9. An Estimate of the Total DNA in the Biosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landenmark, Hanna K E; Forgan, Duncan H; Cockell, Charles S

    2015-06-01

    Modern whole-organism genome analysis, in combination with biomass estimates, allows us to estimate a lower bound on the total information content in the biosphere: 5.3 × 1031 (±3.6 × 1031) megabases (Mb) of DNA. Given conservative estimates regarding DNA transcription rates, this information content suggests biosphere processing speeds exceeding yottaNOPS values (1024 Nucleotide Operations Per Second). Although prokaryotes evolved at least 3 billion years before plants and animals, we find that the information content of prokaryotes is similar to plants and animals at the present day. This information-based approach offers a new way to quantify anthropogenic and natural processes in the biosphere and its information diversity over time.

  10. Estimating milk yield and value losses from increased somatic cell count on US dairy farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadrich, J C; Wolf, C A; Lombard, J; Dolak, T M

    2018-04-01

    Milk loss due to increased somatic cell counts (SCC) results in economic losses for dairy producers. This research uses 10 mo of consecutive dairy herd improvement data from 2013 and 2014 to estimate milk yield loss using SCC as a proxy for clinical and subclinical mastitis. A fixed effects regression was used to examine factors that affected milk yield while controlling for herd-level management. Breed, milking frequency, days in milk, seasonality, SCC, cumulative months with SCC greater than 100,000 cells/mL, lactation, and herd size were variables included in the regression analysis. The cumulative months with SCC above a threshold was included as a proxy for chronic mastitis. Milk yield loss increased as the number of test days with SCC ≥100,000 cells/mL increased. Results from the regression were used to estimate a monetary value of milk loss related to SCC as a function of cow and operation related explanatory variables for a representative dairy cow. The largest losses occurred from increased cumulative test days with a SCC ≥100,000 cells/mL, with daily losses of $1.20/cow per day in the first month to $2.06/cow per day in mo 10. Results demonstrate the importance of including the duration of months above a threshold SCC when estimating milk yield losses. Cows with chronic mastitis, measured by increased consecutive test days with SCC ≥100,000 cells/mL, resulted in higher milk losses than cows with a new infection. This provides farm managers with a method to evaluate the trade-off between treatment and culling decisions as it relates to mastitis control and early detection. Copyright © 2018 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jindrová Pavla

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

  12. Blood loss associated with Ring uncemented total knee replacement: comparison between continuous and intermittent suction drainage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittmann, F W; Ring, P A

    1984-01-01

    In a retrospective comparison of blood loss following uncemented total knee replacement, in which either continuous or intermittent suction drainage was used, measured blood loss was significantly greater with continuous drainage. However, a method of calculating actual blood loss demonstrated no significant difference. With intermittent drainage, more blood remains undetected around the knee joint; this technique should therefore be abandoned in favour of continuous suction drainage. PMID:6747978

  13. Predicting Factors for Allogeneic Blood Transfusion and Excessive Postoperative Blood Loss after Single Low-Dosage Intra-Articular Tranexamic Acid Application in Total Knee Replacement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paphon Sa-ngasoongsong

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Recently, intra-articular tranexamic acid (IA-TXA application has become a popular method for perioperative blood loss (PBL reduction in total knee replacement (TKR. Nevertheless, through our knowledge, no previous studies had shown the correlation perioperative factors and the risk of excessive PBL or need of blood transfusion (BT after IA-TXA. Materials and Methods. A retrospective study was conducted in patients underwent 299 primary TKRs, using IA-TXA, during 2-year period (2013-2014. Patient’s characteristic and perioperative data were reviewed and collected. PBL was measured as total hemoglobin loss (THL, estimated total blood loss (ETBL, and drainage volume per kg (DV/kg. Excessive PBL was defined as PBL that exceeded 90th percentile. Results. From multivariate analysis, low preoperative hemoglobin (Hb level and body mass index (BMI were the significant predictors of postoperative BT (p<0.0001 and 0.003, resp.. Excessive THL significant associated with preoperative Hb (p<0.0001. Excessive ETBL significantly associated with preoperative Hb, height, preoperative range-of-motion, and creatinine clearance (p<0.05 all. Low BMI and large prosthesis size were the significant predictors of excessive DV/kg (p=0.0001 and 0.002, resp.. Conclusions. Low preoperative Hb and BMI were the significant risks of postoperative transfusion after TKR with IA-TXA. Moreover, multiple perioperative factors could result in higher PBL.

  14. Economic Estimation of the Losses Caused by Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China From the Perspective of Water Bodies’ Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Hong; You, Zhen; Liu, Bo

    2016-01-01

    The number of surface water pollution accidents (abbreviated as SWPAs) has increased substantially in China in recent years. Estimation of economic losses due to SWPAs has been one of the focuses in China and is mentioned many times in the Environmental Protection Law of China promulgated in 2014. From the perspective of water bodies’ functions, pollution accident damages can be divided into eight types: damage to human health, water supply suspension, fishery, recreational functions, biological diversity, environmental property loss, the accident’s origin and other indirect losses. In the valuation of damage to people’s life, the procedure for compensation of traffic accidents in China was used. The functional replacement cost method was used in economic estimation of the losses due to water supply suspension and loss of water’s recreational functions. Damage to biological diversity was estimated by recovery cost analysis and damage to environmental property losses were calculated using pollutant removal costs. As a case study, using the proposed calculation procedure the economic losses caused by the major Songhuajiang River pollution accident that happened in China in 2005 have been estimated at 2263 billion CNY. The estimated economic losses for real accidents can sometimes be influenced by social and political factors, such as data authenticity and accuracy. Besides, one or more aspects in the method might be overestimated, underrated or even ignored. The proposed procedure may be used by decision makers for the economic estimation of losses in SWPAs. Estimates of the economic losses of pollution accidents could help quantify potential costs associated with increased risk sources along lakes/rivers but more importantly, highlight the value of clean water to society as a whole. PMID:26805869

  15. Economic Estimation of the Losses Caused by Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China From the Perspective of Water Bodies' Functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Hong; You, Zhen; Liu, Bo

    2016-01-22

    The number of surface water pollution accidents (abbreviated as SWPAs) has increased substantially in China in recent years. Estimation of economic losses due to SWPAs has been one of the focuses in China and is mentioned many times in the Environmental Protection Law of China promulgated in 2014. From the perspective of water bodies' functions, pollution accident damages can be divided into eight types: damage to human health, water supply suspension, fishery, recreational functions, biological diversity, environmental property loss, the accident's origin and other indirect losses. In the valuation of damage to people's life, the procedure for compensation of traffic accidents in China was used. The functional replacement cost method was used in economic estimation of the losses due to water supply suspension and loss of water's recreational functions. Damage to biological diversity was estimated by recovery cost analysis and damage to environmental property losses were calculated using pollutant removal costs. As a case study, using the proposed calculation procedure the economic losses caused by the major Songhuajiang River pollution accident that happened in China in 2005 have been estimated at 2263 billion CNY. The estimated economic losses for real accidents can sometimes be influenced by social and political factors, such as data authenticity and accuracy. Besides, one or more aspects in the method might be overestimated, underrated or even ignored. The proposed procedure may be used by decision makers for the economic estimation of losses in SWPAs. Estimates of the economic losses of pollution accidents could help quantify potential costs associated with increased risk sources along lakes/rivers but more importantly, highlight the value of clean water to society as a whole.

  16. Economic Estimation of the Losses Caused by Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China From the Perspective of Water Bodies’ Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Yao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The number of surface water pollution accidents (abbreviated as SWPAs has increased substantially in China in recent years. Estimation of economic losses due to SWPAs has been one of the focuses in China and is mentioned many times in the Environmental Protection Law of China promulgated in 2014. From the perspective of water bodies’ functions, pollution accident damages can be divided into eight types: damage to human health, water supply suspension, fishery, recreational functions, biological diversity, environmental property loss, the accident’s origin and other indirect losses. In the valuation of damage to people’s life, the procedure for compensation of traffic accidents in China was used. The functional replacement cost method was used in economic estimation of the losses due to water supply suspension and loss of water’s recreational functions. Damage to biological diversity was estimated by recovery cost analysis and damage to environmental property losses were calculated using pollutant removal costs. As a case study, using the proposed calculation procedure the economic losses caused by the major Songhuajiang River pollution accident that happened in China in 2005 have been estimated at 2263 billion CNY. The estimated economic losses for real accidents can sometimes be influenced by social and political factors, such as data authenticity and accuracy. Besides, one or more aspects in the method might be overestimated, underrated or even ignored. The proposed procedure may be used by decision makers for the economic estimation of losses in SWPAs. Estimates of the economic losses of pollution accidents could help quantify potential costs associated with increased risk sources along lakes/rivers but more importantly, highlight the value of clean water to society as a whole.

  17. Dose estimates in a loss of lead shielding truck accident.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dennis, Matthew L.; Osborn, Douglas M.; Weiner, Ruth F.; Heames, Terence John (Alion Science & Technology Albuquerque, NM)

    2009-08-01

    The radiological transportation risk & consequence program, RADTRAN, has recently added an updated loss of lead shielding (LOS) model to it most recent version, RADTRAN 6.0. The LOS model was used to determine dose estimates to first-responders during a spent nuclear fuel transportation accident. Results varied according to the following: type of accident scenario, percent of lead slump, distance to shipment, and time spent in the area. This document presents a method of creating dose estimates for first-responders using RADTRAN with potential accident scenarios. This may be of particular interest in the event of high speed accidents or fires involving cask punctures.

  18. Project W-026, Waste Receiving and Processing (WRAP) Facility Module 1: Maximum possible fire loss (MPFL) decontamination and cleanup estimates. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hinkle, A.W.; Jacobsen, P.H.; Lucas, D.R.

    1994-01-01

    Project W-026, Waste Receiving and Processing (WRAP) Facility Module 1, a 1991 Line Item, is planned for completion and start of operations in the spring of 1997. WRAP Module 1 will have the capability to characterize and repackage newly generated, retrieved and stored transuranic (TRU), TRU mixed, and suspect TRU waste for shipment to the Waste isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). In addition, the WRAP Facility Module 1 will have the capability to characterize low-level mixed waste for treatment in WRAP Module 2A. This report documents the assumptions and cost estimates for decontamination and clean-up of a maximum possible fire loss (MPFL) as defined by DOE Order 5480.7A, FIRE PROTECTION. The Order defines MPFL as the value of property, excluding land, within a fire area, unless a fire hazards analysis demonstrates a lesser (or greater) loss potential. This assumes failure of both automatic fire suppression systems and manual fire fighting efforts. Estimates were developed for demolition, disposal, decontamination, and rebuilding. Total costs were estimated to be approximately $98M

  19. The effects of war losses on mortality estimates for Italy: A first attempt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Bruzzone

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available For countries that experience substantial war losses in a given time period, the exclusion of military deaths can have an important impact on estimates of mortality and life expectancy. In this paper, we start by reviewing Vallin's work in accounting for French war losses. We then attempt to apply comparable methods to Italy in order to account for the effects of war. The results indicate that estimates currently available from the Human Mortality Database (HMD greatly underestimate period mortality during wartime among all Italian males, and may even underestimate mortality among civilian males. Finally, we discuss how failing to account for war mortality presents problems in making inter-country mortality comparisons.

  20. Minimum variance linear unbiased estimators of loss and inventory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stewart, K.B.

    1977-01-01

    The article illustrates a number of approaches for estimating the material balance inventory and a constant loss amount from the accountability data from a sequence of accountability periods. The approaches all lead to linear estimates that have minimum variance. Techniques are shown whereby ordinary least squares, weighted least squares and generalized least squares computer programs can be used. Two approaches are recursive in nature and lend themselves to small specialized computer programs. Another approach is developed that is easy to program; could be used with a desk calculator and can be used in a recursive way from accountability period to accountability period. Some previous results are also reviewed that are very similar in approach to the present ones and vary only in the way net throughput measurements are statistically modeled. 5 refs

  1. Multilevel systematic sampling to estimate total fruit number for yield forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulfsohn, Dvora-Laio; Zamora, Felipe Aravena; Tellez, Camilla Potin

    2012-01-01

    procedure for unbiased estimation of fruit number for yield forecasts. In the Spring of 2009 we estimated the total number of fruit in several rows of each of 14 commercial fruit orchards growing apple (11 groves), kiwifruit (two groves), and table grapes (one grove) in central Chile. Survey times were 10...

  2. Estimation of Total Error in DWPF Reported Radionuclide Inventories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, T.B.

    1995-01-01

    This report investigates the impact of random errors due to measurement and sampling on the reported concentrations of radionuclides in DWPF's filled canister inventory resulting from each macro-batch. The objective of this investigation is to estimate the variance of the total error in reporting these radionuclide concentrations

  3. Estimating annual soil carbon loss in agricultural peatland soils using a nitrogen budget approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirk, Emilie R; van Kessel, Chris; Horwath, William R; Linquist, Bruce A

    2015-01-01

    Around the world, peatland degradation and soil subsidence is occurring where these soils have been converted to agriculture. Since initial drainage in the mid-1800s, continuous farming of such soils in the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (the Delta) has led to subsidence of up to 8 meters in places, primarily due to soil organic matter (SOM) oxidation and physical compaction. Rice (Oryza sativa) production has been proposed as an alternative cropping system to limit SOM oxidation. Preliminary research on these soils revealed high N uptake by rice in N fertilizer omission plots, which we hypothesized was the result of SOM oxidation releasing N. Testing this hypothesis, we developed a novel N budgeting approach to assess annual soil C and N loss based on plant N uptake and fallow season N mineralization. Through field experiments examining N dynamics during growing season and winter fallow periods, a complete annual N budget was developed. Soil C loss was calculated from SOM-N mineralization using the soil C:N ratio. Surface water and crop residue were negligible in the total N uptake budget (3 - 4 % combined). Shallow groundwater contributed 24 - 33 %, likely representing subsurface SOM-N mineralization. Assuming 6 and 25 kg N ha-1 from atmospheric deposition and biological N2 fixation, respectively, our results suggest 77 - 81 % of plant N uptake (129 - 149 kg N ha-1) was supplied by SOM mineralization. Considering a range of N uptake efficiency from 50 - 70 %, estimated net C loss ranged from 1149 - 2473 kg C ha-1. These findings suggest that rice systems, as currently managed, reduce the rate of C loss from organic delta soils relative to other agricultural practices.

  4. The INCOTUR model : estimation of losses in the tourism sector in Alcudia due to a hydrocarbon spill

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergueiro, J.R.; Moreno, S.; Guijarro, S.; Santos, A.; Serr, F. [Iles Balears Univ., Palma de Mallorca, Balearic Islands (Spain). Dept. of Chemistry

    2006-07-01

    This paper presented a computer model that calculates the economic losses incurred by a hydrocarbon spill on a coastal area. In particular, it focused on the Balearic Islands in the Bay of Alcudia where the economy depends mainly on tourism. A large number of oil tankers carrying crude oil and petroleum products pass through the Balearic Sea. Any pollution resulting from a fuel spill can have a significant economic impact on both the tourism sector and the Balearic society in general. This study focused on the simulation of 18 spills of Jet A1 fuel oil, unleaded gasoline and Bunker C fuel oil. Simulations of the study area were produced with OILMAP, MIKE21, GNOME and ADIOS models which estimated the trajectories of various spills and the amount of oil washed ashore. The change in physical and chemical properties of the spilled hydrocarbons was also determined. The simulation models considered the trajectory followed by spills according to the type and amount of spill, weather conditions prevailing during the spill and the period immediately following the spill. The INCOTUR model was then used to calculate the economic losses resulting from an oil spill by considering the number of tonnes of oil washed ashore; number of days needed to organize cleanup; the percentage of tourism that will be maintained despite the effects of the spill; number of hotel beds; percentage of hotel occupancy by month; cost of package holidays; petty cash expenses; and, cost of advertising campaign for the affected area. With this data, the model can determine the number of days needed to clean and restore the coastline; monthly rate of recovery in tourism levels; and, losses in tourism sector. According to the INCOTUR model, the total losses incurred by a spill of 40,000 tonnes of Bunker C fuel, was estimated at 472 million Euros. 9 refs., 2 tabs., 12 figs.

  5. The INCOTUR model : estimation of losses in the tourism sector in Alcudia due to a hydrocarbon spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergueiro, J.R.; Moreno, S.; Guijarro, S.; Santos, A.; Serr, F.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presented a computer model that calculates the economic losses incurred by a hydrocarbon spill on a coastal area. In particular, it focused on the Balearic Islands in the Bay of Alcudia where the economy depends mainly on tourism. A large number of oil tankers carrying crude oil and petroleum products pass through the Balearic Sea. Any pollution resulting from a fuel spill can have a significant economic impact on both the tourism sector and the Balearic society in general. This study focused on the simulation of 18 spills of Jet A1 fuel oil, unleaded gasoline and Bunker C fuel oil. Simulations of the study area were produced with OILMAP, MIKE21, GNOME and ADIOS models which estimated the trajectories of various spills and the amount of oil washed ashore. The change in physical and chemical properties of the spilled hydrocarbons was also determined. The simulation models considered the trajectory followed by spills according to the type and amount of spill, weather conditions prevailing during the spill and the period immediately following the spill. The INCOTUR model was then used to calculate the economic losses resulting from an oil spill by considering the number of tonnes of oil washed ashore; number of days needed to organize cleanup; the percentage of tourism that will be maintained despite the effects of the spill; number of hotel beds; percentage of hotel occupancy by month; cost of package holidays; petty cash expenses; and, cost of advertising campaign for the affected area. With this data, the model can determine the number of days needed to clean and restore the coastline; monthly rate of recovery in tourism levels; and, losses in tourism sector. According to the INCOTUR model, the total losses incurred by a spill of 40,000 tonnes of Bunker C fuel, was estimated at 472 million Euros. 9 refs., 2 tabs., 12 figs

  6. National-scale estimation of gross forest aboveground carbon loss: a case study of the Democratic Republic of the Congo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tyukavina, A; Potapov, P V; Turubanova, S A; Hansen, M C; Stehman, S V; Baccini, A; Goetz, S J; Laporte, N T; Houghton, R A

    2013-01-01

    Recent advances in remote sensing enable the mapping and monitoring of carbon stocks without relying on extensive in situ measurements. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is among the countries where national forest inventories (NFI) are either non-existent or out of date. Here we demonstrate a method for estimating national-scale gross forest aboveground carbon (AGC) loss and associated uncertainties using remotely sensed-derived forest cover loss and biomass carbon density data. Lidar data were used as a surrogate for NFI plot measurements to estimate carbon stocks and AGC loss based on forest type and activity data derived using time-series multispectral imagery. Specifically, DRC forest type and loss from the FACET (Forêts d’Afrique Centrale Evaluées par Télédétection) product, created using Landsat data, were related to carbon data derived from the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS). Validation data for FACET forest area loss were created at a 30-m spatial resolution and compared to the 60-m spatial resolution FACET map. We produced two gross AGC loss estimates for the DRC for the last decade (2000–2010): a map-scale estimate (53.3 ± 9.8 Tg C yr −1 ) accounting for whole-pixel classification errors in the 60-m resolution FACET forest cover change product, and a sub-grid estimate (72.1 ± 12.7 Tg C yr −1 ) that took into account 60-m cells that experienced partial forest loss. Our sub-grid forest cover and AGC loss estimates, which included smaller-scale forest disturbances, exceed published assessments. Results raise the issue of scale in forest cover change mapping and validation, and subsequent impacts on remotely sensed carbon stock change estimation, particularly for smallholder dominated systems such as the DRC. (letter)

  7. Precise estimation of total solar radiation on tilted surface

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    rajeev

    rarely available required for precise sizing of energy systems. The total solar radiation at different orientation and slope is needed to calculate the efficiency of the installed solar energy systems. To calculate clearness index (Kt) used by Gueymard (2000) for estimating solar irradiation H, irradiation at the earth's surface has ...

  8. Preoperative methylprednisolone does not reduce loss of knee-extension strength after total knee arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindberg-Larsen, Viktoria; Bandholm, Thomas Q; Zilmer, Camilla K

    2017-01-01

    tests, rescue analgesic requirements, and plasma C-reactive protein (CRP) changes. Results - 61 patients completed the follow-up. The loss in quadriceps muscle strength was similar between groups; group MP 1.04 (0.22-1.91) Nm/kg (-89%) vs. group C 1.02 (0.22-1.57) Nm/kg (-88%). Also between......-265) mg/L (p loss of knee-extension strength or other functional outcomes at discharge after fast-track TKA despite a reduced systemic inflammatory response.......Background and purpose - Patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty (TKA) face challenges related to postoperative reduction in knee-extension strength. We evaluated whether inhibition of the inflammatory response by a single preoperative dose of methylprednisolone (MP) reduces the pronounced loss...

  9. E-model MOS Estimate Improvement through Jitter Buffer Packet Loss Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian Kovac

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Proposed article analyses dependence of MOS as a voice call quality (QoS measure estimated through ITU-T E-model under real network conditions with jitter. In this paper, a method of jitter effect is proposed. Jitter as voice packet time uncertainty appears as increased packet loss caused by jitter memory buffer under- or overflow. Jitter buffer behaviour at receiver’s side is modelled as Pareto/D/1/K system with Pareto-distributed packet interarrival times and its performance is experimentally evaluated by using statistic tools. Jitter buffer stochastic model is then incorporated into E-model in an additive manner accounting for network jitter effects via excess packet loss complementing measured network packet loss. Proposed modification of E-model input parameter adds two degrees of freedom in modelling: network jitter and jitter buffer size.

  10. A pragmatic method for estimating seepage losses for small reservoirs with application in rural India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oblinger, Jennifer A.; Moysey, Stephen M. J.; Ravindrinath, Rangoori; Guha, Chiranjit

    2010-05-01

    SummaryThe informal construction of small dams to capture runoff and artificially recharge ground water is a widespread strategy for dealing with water scarcity. A lack of technical capacity for the formal characterization of these systems, however, is often an impediment to the implementation of effective watershed management practices. Monitoring changes in reservoir storage provides a conceptually simple approach to quantify seepage, but does not account for the losses occurring when seepage is balanced by inflows to the reservoir and the stage remains approximately constant. To overcome this problem we evaluate whether a physically-based volume balance model that explicitly represents watershed processes, including reservoir inflows, can be constrained by a limited set of data readily collected by non-experts, specifically records of reservoir stage, rainfall, and evaporation. To assess the impact of parameter non-uniqueness associated with the calibration of the non-linear model, we perform a Monte Carlo analysis to quantify uncertainty in the total volume of water contributed to the subsurface by the 2007 monsoon for a dam located in the Deccan basalts near the village of Salri in Madhya Pradesh, India. The Monte Carlo analysis demonstrated that subsurface losses from the reservoir could be constrained with the available data, but additional measurements are required to constrain reservoir inflows. Our estimate of seepage from the reservoir (7.0 ± 0.6 × 10 4 m 3) is 3.5 times greater than the recharge volume estimated by considering reservoir volume changes alone. This result suggests that artificial recharge could be significantly underestimated when reservoir inflows are not explicitly included in models. Our seepage estimate also accounts for about 11% of rainfall occurring upstream of the dam and is comparable in magnitude to natural ground water recharge, thereby indicating that the reservoir plays a significant role in the hydrology of this small

  11. Estimating Soil Bulk Density and Total Nitrogen from Catchment ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Even though data on soil bulk density (BD) and total nitrogen (TN) are essential for planning modern farming techniques, their data availability is limited for many applications in the developing word. This study is designed to estimate BD and TN from soil properties, land-use systems, soil types and landforms in the ...

  12. Erosivity factor in the Universal Soil Loss Equation estimated from Finnish rainfall data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maximilian Posch

    1993-07-01

    Full Text Available Continuous rainfall data recorded for many years at 8 stations in Finland were used to estimate rainfall erosivity, a quantity needed for soil loss predictions with the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE. The obtained erosivity values were then used to determine the 2 parameters of a power-law function describing the relationship between daily precipitation and erosivity. This function is of importance in erosion modeling at locations where no breakpoint rainfall data are available. The parameters of the power-law were estimated both by linear regression of the log-transformed data and by non-linear least-square fitting of the original data. Results indicate a considerable seasonal (monthly variation of the erosivity, whereas the spatial variation over Finland is rather small.

  13. Eddy current and total power loss separation in the iron-phosphate-polyepoxy soft magnetic composites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taghvaei, A.H.; Shokrollahi, H.; Janghorban, K.; Abiri, H.

    2009-01-01

    This work investigates the magnetic properties of iron-phosphate-polyepoxy soft magnetic composite materials. FTIR spectra, EDX analysis, distribution maps, X-ray diffraction pattern and density measurements show that the particles surface layer contains a thin layer of nanocrystalline/amorphous phosphate with high coverage of powders surface. In this paper, a formula for calculating the eddy current loss and total loss components by loss separation method is presented and finally the different parts of power losses are calculated. The results show that, the contribution of eddy current in the bulk material for single coating layer (k b = 0.18) is higher in comparison with double coating layer (k b = 0.09). Moreover, iron-phosphate-polyepoxy composites (P = 0.000004f 2 ) have lower power loss in comparison with iron-phosphate composites (P = 0.00002f 2 ).

  14. Effects of the loss of correlation structure on Phase 1 dose estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simpson, J.C.

    1991-11-01

    In Phase I of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project, a step-by-step (modular) calculational structure was used. This structure was intended (1) to simplify the computational process, (2) to allow storage of intermediate calculations for later analyses, and (3) to guide the collection of data by presenting understandable structures for its use. The implementation of this modular structure resulted in the loss of correlation among inputs and outputs of the code, resulting in less accurate dose estimates than anticipated. The study documented in this report investigated two types of correlations in the Phase I model: temporal and pathway. Temporal correlations occur in the simulation when, in the calculation, data estimated for a previous time are used in a subsequent calculation. If the various portions of the calculation do not use the same realization of the earlier estimate, they are no longer correlated with respect to time. Similarly, spatial correlations occur in a simulation when, in the calculation, data estimated for a particular location are used in estimates for other locations. If the various calculations do not use the same value for the original location, they are no longer correlated with respect to location. The loss of the correlation structure in the Phase I code resulted in dose estimates that are biased. It is recommended that the air pathway dose model be restructured and the intermediate histograms eliminated. While the restructured code may still contain distinct modules, all input parameters to each module and all out put from each module should be retained in a database such that subsequent modules can access all the information necessary to retain the correlation structure

  15. Combined Intra-Articular and Intravenous Tranexamic Acid Reduces Blood Loss in Total Knee Arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Christian Skovgaard; Jans, Øivind; Ørsnes, Thue

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In total knee arthroplasty, both intravenous (IV) and intra-articular (IA) administration of tranexamic acid (TXA) have been shown to reduce blood loss in several randomized controlled trials, although routine use of systemic TXA is considerably more common. However, to our knowledge...

  16. Comparison of physically based catchment models for estimating Phosphorus losses

    OpenAIRE

    Nasr, Ahmed Elssidig; Bruen, Michael

    2003-01-01

    As part of a large EPA-funded research project, coordinated by TEAGASC, the Centre for Water Resources Research at UCD reviewed the available distributed physically based catchment models with a potential for use in estimating phosphorous losses for use in implementing the Water Framework Directive. Three models, representative of different levels of approach and complexity, were chosen and were implemented for a number of Irish catchments. This paper reports on (i) the lessons and experience...

  17. Total body skeletal muscle mass: estimation by creatine (methyl-d3) dilution in humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Ann C.; O'Connor-Semmes, Robin L.; Leonard, Michael S.; Miller, Ram R.; Stimpson, Stephen A.; Turner, Scott M.; Ravussin, Eric; Cefalu, William T.; Hellerstein, Marc K.; Evans, William J.

    2014-01-01

    Current methods for clinical estimation of total body skeletal muscle mass have significant limitations. We tested the hypothesis that creatine (methyl-d3) dilution (D3-creatine) measured by enrichment of urine D3-creatinine reveals total body creatine pool size, providing an accurate estimate of total body skeletal muscle mass. Healthy subjects with different muscle masses [n = 35: 20 men (19–30 yr, 70–84 yr), 15 postmenopausal women (51–62 yr, 70–84 yr)] were housed for 5 days. Optimal tracer dose was explored with single oral doses of 30, 60, or 100 mg D3-creatine given on day 1. Serial plasma samples were collected for D3-creatine pharmacokinetics. All urine was collected through day 5. Creatine and creatinine (deuterated and unlabeled) were measured by liquid chromatography mass spectrometry. Total body creatine pool size and muscle mass were calculated from D3-creatinine enrichment in urine. Muscle mass was also measured by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and traditional 24-h urine creatinine. D3-creatine was rapidly absorbed and cleared with variable urinary excretion. Isotopic steady-state of D3-creatinine enrichment in the urine was achieved by 30.7 ± 11.2 h. Mean steady-state enrichment in urine provided muscle mass estimates that correlated well with MRI estimates for all subjects (r = 0.868, P creatine dose determined by urine D3-creatinine enrichment provides an estimate of total body muscle mass strongly correlated with estimates from serial MRI with less bias than total lean body mass assessment by DXA. PMID:24764133

  18. Estimating annual soil carbon loss in agricultural peatland soils using a nitrogen budget approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilie R Kirk

    Full Text Available Around the world, peatland degradation and soil subsidence is occurring where these soils have been converted to agriculture. Since initial drainage in the mid-1800s, continuous farming of such soils in the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (the Delta has led to subsidence of up to 8 meters in places, primarily due to soil organic matter (SOM oxidation and physical compaction. Rice (Oryza sativa production has been proposed as an alternative cropping system to limit SOM oxidation. Preliminary research on these soils revealed high N uptake by rice in N fertilizer omission plots, which we hypothesized was the result of SOM oxidation releasing N. Testing this hypothesis, we developed a novel N budgeting approach to assess annual soil C and N loss based on plant N uptake and fallow season N mineralization. Through field experiments examining N dynamics during growing season and winter fallow periods, a complete annual N budget was developed. Soil C loss was calculated from SOM-N mineralization using the soil C:N ratio. Surface water and crop residue were negligible in the total N uptake budget (3 - 4 % combined. Shallow groundwater contributed 24 - 33 %, likely representing subsurface SOM-N mineralization. Assuming 6 and 25 kg N ha-1 from atmospheric deposition and biological N2 fixation, respectively, our results suggest 77 - 81 % of plant N uptake (129 - 149 kg N ha-1 was supplied by SOM mineralization. Considering a range of N uptake efficiency from 50 - 70 %, estimated net C loss ranged from 1149 - 2473 kg C ha-1. These findings suggest that rice systems, as currently managed, reduce the rate of C loss from organic delta soils relative to other agricultural practices.

  19. Improving volume loss estimates of the northwestern Greenland Ice Sheet 2002-2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korsgaard, Niels Jákup; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Kjeldsen, Kristian Kjellerup

    Studies have been carried out using various methods to estimate the Greenland ice sheet mass balance. Remote sensing techniques used to determine the ice sheet volume includes airborne and satellite radar and laser methods and measurements of ice flow of outlet glaciers use InSAR satellite radar......) does not work on sloping surfaces and is affected by radar penetration into the snow. InSAR estimates require knowledge of outlet glacier thickness. GRACE has limited spatial resolution and is affected by mass variations not just from ice changes, but also from hydrologic and ocean mass variability...... and mass redistribution within the solid Earth. The accuracy of ice mass and ice volume estimates can be assessed by comparing results from different techniques. Here, we focus on volume loss estimates from ICESat, ATM and LVIS data. We estimate catchment-wide ice volume change in northwest Greenland...

  20. Global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  1. Survival Bayesian Estimation of Exponential-Gamma Under Linex Loss Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizki, S. W.; Mara, M. N.; Sulistianingsih, E.

    2017-06-01

    This paper elaborates a research of the cancer patients after receiving a treatment in cencored data using Bayesian estimation under Linex Loss function for Survival Model which is assumed as an exponential distribution. By giving Gamma distribution as prior and likelihood function produces a gamma distribution as posterior distribution. The posterior distribution is used to find estimatior {\\hat{λ }}BL by using Linex approximation. After getting {\\hat{λ }}BL, the estimators of hazard function {\\hat{h}}BL and survival function {\\hat{S}}BL can be found. Finally, we compare the result of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and Linex approximation to find the best method for this observation by finding smaller MSE. The result shows that MSE of hazard and survival under MLE are 2.91728E-07 and 0.000309004 and by using Bayesian Linex worths 2.8727E-07 and 0.000304131, respectively. It concludes that the Bayesian Linex is better than MLE.

  2. [Intra-Articular Application of Tranexamic Acid Significantly Reduces Blood Loss and Transfusion Requirement in Primary Total Knee Arthroplasty].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lošťák, J; Gallo, J; Špička, J; Langová, K

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE OF THE STUDY The aim of this prospective study was to investigate the effect of topical application of tranexamic acid (TXA, Exacyl) on the amount of post-operative blood loss, and blood transfusion requirement in patients undergoing primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Attention was paid to early complications potentially associated with TXA administration, such as haematoma, wound exudate, or knee swelling. In addition, the economic benefit of TXA treatment was also taken into account. MATERIAL AND METHODS The study included 238 patients (85 men and 153 women) who underwent primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) at our department between January 2013 and November 2015. A group of 119 patients (41 men and 78 women) received intraarticular TXA injections according to the treatment protocol (TXA group). A control group matched in basic characteristics to the TXA group also consisted of 119 patients. The average age in the TXA group was 69.8 years, and the most frequent indication for TKA surgery was primary knee osteoarthritis (81.5%). In each patient, post-operative volume of blood lost from drains and total blood loss including hidden blood loss were recorded, as well as post-operative haemoglobin and haematocrit levels. On discharge of each patient from hospital, the size and site of a haematoma; wound exudate, if present after post-operative day 4; joint swelling; range of motion and early revision surgery, if performed, were evaluated. Requirements of analgesic drugs after surgery were also recorded. RESULTS In the TXA group, blood losses from drains were significantly lower than in the control group (456.7 ± 270.8 vs 640.5 ±448.2; p = 0.004). The median value for blood losses from drains was lower by 22% and the average value for total blood loss, including hidden losses, was also lower than in the control group (762.4 ± 345.2 ml vs 995.5 ± 457.3 ml). The difference in the total amount of blood loss between the two groups was significant (p = 0

  3. Evaluation of soil loss estimation using the RUSLE model and SCS-CN method in hillslope mining areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narayan Kayet

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Mining operations result in the generation of barren land and spoil heaps which are subject to high erosion rate during the rainy season. The present study uses the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE and SCS-CN (Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number process to estimate in Kiruburu and Meghahatuburu mining sites areas. The geospatial model of annual average soil loss rate was determined by integrating environmental variables parameters in a raster pixels-based GIS framework. GIS layers with, rainfall passivity and runoff erosivity (R, soil erodibility (K, slope length and steepness (LS, cover management(C and conservation practice (P factors were calculated to determine their effects on annual soil erosion in the study area. The coefficient of determination (r2 was 0.834, which indicates a strong correlation of soil loss with runoff and rainfall. Sub -watersheds 5,9,10 and 2 experienced high level of highly runoff. Average annual soil loss was calculated (30*30 m raster grid cell to determine the critical soil loss areas (Sub-watershed 9 and 5. Total soil erosion area was classified into five class, slight (10,025 ha, moderate (3125 ha, high (973 ha, very high (260 ha and severe (53 ha. The resulting map shows greatest soil erosion of >40 t h-1 y-1 (severe through connection to grassland, degraded and open forestry on the erect mining side-escutcheon. The Landsat pan sharpening image and DGPS survey field data were used in the verification of soil erosion results.

  4. Energy flow models for the estimation of technical losses in distribution network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Au, Mau Teng; Tan, Chin Hooi

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents energy flow models developed to estimate technical losses in distribution network. Energy flow models applied in this paper is based on input energy and peak demand of distribution network, feeder length and peak demand, transformer loading capacity, and load factor. Two case studies, an urban distribution network and a rural distribution network are used to illustrate application of the energy flow models. Results on technical losses obtained for the two distribution networks are consistent and comparable to network of similar types and characteristics. Hence, the energy flow models are suitable for practical application.

  5. Design-based stereological estimation of the total number of cardiac myocytes in histological sections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brüel, Annemarie; Nyengaard, Jens Randel

    2005-01-01

    in LM sections using design-based stereology. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From formalin-fixed left rat ventricles (LV) isotropic uniformly random sections were cut. The total number of myocyte nuclei per LV was estimated using the optical disector. Two-microm-thick serial paraffin sections were stained......BACKGROUND: Counting the total number of cardiac myocytes has not previously been possible in ordinary histological sections using light microscopy (LM) due to difficulties in defining the myocyte borders properly. AIM: To describe a method by which the total number of cardiac myocytes is estimated...... with antibodies against cadherin and type IV collagen to visualise the intercalated discs and the myocyte membranes, respectively. Using the physical disector in "local vertical windows" of the serial sections, the average number of nuclei per myocyte was estimated.RESULTS: The total number of myocyte nuclei...

  6. Bayesian Estimation Of Shift Point In Poisson Model Under Asymmetric Loss Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    uma srivastava

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with estimating  shift point which occurs in any sequence of independent observations  of Poisson model in statistical process control. This shift point occurs in the sequence when  i.e. m  life data are observed. The Bayes estimator on shift point 'm' and before and after shift process means are derived for symmetric and asymmetric loss functions under informative and non informative priors. The sensitivity analysis of Bayes estimators are carried out by simulation and numerical comparisons with  R-programming. The results shows the effectiveness of shift in sequence of Poisson disribution .

  7. Estimation of single-year-of-age counts of live births, fetal losses, abortions, and pregnant women for counties of Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Bismark; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

    2017-05-08

    We provide a methodology for estimating counts of single-year-of-age live-births, fetal-losses, abortions, and pregnant women from aggregated age-group counts. As a case study, we estimate counts for the 254 counties of Texas for the year 2010. We use interpolation to estimate counts of live-births, fetal-losses, and abortions by women of each single-year-of-age for all Texas counties. We then use these counts to estimate the numbers of pregnant women for each single-year-of-age, which were previously available only in aggregate. To support public health policy and planning, we provide single-year-of-age estimates of live-births, fetal-losses, abortions, and pregnant women for all Texas counties in the year 2010, as well as the estimation method source code.

  8. Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

  9. The Sandia total-dose estimator: SANDOSE description and user guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, C.D.

    1995-02-01

    The SANdia total-DOSe Estimator (SANDOSE) is used to estimate total radiation dose to a (BRL-CAT) solid model, SANDOSE uses the mass-sectoring technique to sample the model using ray-tracing techniques. The code is integrated directly into the BRL-CAD solid model editor and is operated using a simple graphical user interface. Several diagnostic tools are available to allow the user to analyze the results. Based on limited validation using several benchmark problems, results can be expected to fall between a 10% underestimate and a factor of 2 overestimate of the actual dose predicted by rigorous radiation transport techniques. However, other situations may be encountered where the results might fall outside of this range. The code is written in C and uses X-windows graphics. It presently runs on SUN SPARCstations, but in theory could be ported to any workstation with a C compiler and X-windows. SANDOSE is available via license by contacting either the Sandia National Laboratories Technology Transfer Center or the author

  10. Total glucosides of paeony prevents juxta-articular bone loss in experimental arthritis

    OpenAIRE

    Wei, Chen Chao; You, Fan Tian; Mei, Li Yu; Jian, Sun; Qiang, Chen Yong

    2013-01-01

    Background Total glucosides of paeony (TGP) is a biologically active compound extracted from Paeony root. TGP has been used in rheumatoid arthritis therapy for many years. However, the mechanism by which TGP prevents bone loss has been less explored. Methods TGP was orally administered for 3?months to New Zealand rabbits with antigen-induced arthritis (AIA). Digital x-ray knee images and bone mineral density (BMD) measurements of the subchondral knee bone were performed before sacrifice. Chon...

  11. A Modified Gash Model for Estimating Rainfall Interception Loss of Forest Using Remote Sensing Observations at Regional Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaokui Cui

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall interception loss of forest is an important component of water balance in a forested ecosystem. The Gash analytical model has been widely used to estimate the forest interception loss at field scale. In this study, we proposed a simple model to estimate rainfall interception loss of heterogeneous forest at regional scale with several reasonable assumptions using remote sensing observations. The model is a modified Gash analytical model using easily measured parameters of forest structure from satellite data and extends the original Gash model from point-scale to the regional scale. Preliminary results, using remote sensing data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS products, field measured rainfall data, and meteorological data of the Automatic Weather Station (AWS over a picea crassifolia forest in the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China, showed reasonable accuracy in estimating rainfall interception loss at both the Dayekou experimental site (R2 = 0.91, RMSE = 0.34 mm∙d −1 and the Pailugou experimental site (R2 = 0.82, RMSE = 0.6 mm∙d −1, compared with ground measurements based on per unit area of forest. The interception loss map of the study area was shown to be strongly heterogeneous. The modified model has robust physics and is insensitive to the input parameters, according to the sensitivity analysis using numerical simulations. The modified model appears to be stable and easy to be applied for operational estimation of interception loss over large areas.

  12. Hurricane Loss Estimation Models: Opportunities for Improving the State of the Art.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Charles C., Jr.; Johnson, Mark E.

    2004-11-01

    The results of hurricane loss models are used regularly for multibillion dollar decisions in the insurance and financial services industries. These models are proprietary, and this “black box” nature hinders analysis. The proprietary models produce a wide range of results, often producing loss costs that differ by a ratio of three to one or more. In a study for the state of North Carolina, 324 combinations of loss models were analyzed, based on a combination of nine wind models, four surface friction models, and nine damage models drawn from the published literature in insurance, engineering, and meteorology. These combinations were tested against reported losses from Hurricanes Hugo and Andrew as reported by a major insurance company, as well as storm total losses for additional storms. Annual loss costs were then computed using these 324 combinations of models for both North Carolina and Florida, and compared with publicly available proprietary model results in Florida. The wide range of resulting loss costs for open, scientifically defensible models that perform well against observed losses mirrors the wide range of loss costs computed by the proprietary models currently in use. This outcome may be discouraging for governmental and corporate decision makers relying on this data for policy and investment guidance (due to the high variability across model results), but it also provides guidance for the efforts of future investigations to improve loss models. Although hurricane loss models are true multidisciplinary efforts, involving meteorology, engineering, statistics, and actuarial sciences, the field of meteorology offers the most promising opportunities for improvement of the state of the art.

  13. Which Route of Tranexamic Acid Administration is More Effective to Reduce Blood Loss Following Total Knee Arthroplasty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keyhani, Sohrab; Esmailiejah, Ali Akbar; Abbasian, Mohammad Reza; Safdari, Farshad

    2016-01-01

    The most appropriate route of tranexamic acid administration is controversial. In the current study, we compared the efficacy of intravenous (IV) and topical intra-articular tranexamic acid in reducing blood loss and transfusion rate in patients who underwent primary total knee arthroplasty. One hundred twenty 120 patients were scheduled to undergo primary total knee arthroplasty. Patients were randomly allocated to three equal groups: IV tranexamic acid (500 mg), topical tranexamic acid (3 g in 100 mL normal saline) and the control. In the topical group, half of the volume was used to irrigate the joint and the other half was injected intra-articularly. The volume of blood loss, hemoglobin (Hb) level at 24 hours postoperative, and rate of transfusion was compared between groups. The blood loss and Hb level were significantly greater and lower in the control group, respectively (P=0.031). Also, the rate of transfusion was significantly greater in the control group (P=0.013). However, IV and topical groups did not differ significantly in terms of measured variables. No patient experienced a thromboembolic event in our study. Tranexamic acid is a useful antifibrinolytic drug to reduce postoperative blood loss, Hb drop, and rate of blood transfusion in patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty. The route of tranexamic acid administration did not affect the efficacy and safety.

  14. Incorporation of Finite Element Analysis into Annual Energy Loss Estimation for Permanent Magnet Wind Turbine Generators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Matthew Lee; Jensen, Bogi Bech

    2013-01-01

    Several methods of estimating the annual energy losses for wind turbine generators are investigated in this paper. Utilizing a high amount of transient simulations with motion is first demonstrated. Usage of a space-time transformation for prediction of iron losses is also explored. The methods, ...

  15. A Method for Estimating the Probability of Floating Gate Prompt Charge Loss in a Radiation Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmonds, L. D.

    2016-01-01

    Since advancing technology has been producing smaller structures in electronic circuits, the floating gates in modern flash memories are becoming susceptible to prompt charge loss from ionizing radiation environments found in space. A method for estimating the risk of a charge-loss event is given.

  16. Estimation of Total Body Fat from Potassium-40 Content

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taha Mohamed Taha Ahmed, T.M.T.

    2010-01-01

    This paper concerns on estimation of total body fat from potassium 40 content using total body counting technique. The work performed using fast scan whole body counter. Calibration of that system for K-40 was carried out under assumption that uniformity distribution of radioactivity of potassium was distributed in 10 polyethylene bottles phantom. Different body sizes were represented by 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 polyethylene bottles; each bottle has a volume of 0.04 m3. The counting efficiency for each body size was determined. Lean body weight (LBW) was calculated for ten males and ten females using appropriate mathematical equation. Total Body Potassium, TBK for the same selected group was measured using whole body counter. A mathematical relationship between lean body weight and potassium content was deduced .Fat contents for some individuals were calculated and weight/height ratio was indicated for fatness.

  17. Blood Loss and Transfusion After Topical Tranexamic Acid Administration in Primary Total Knee Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hao; Shen, Bin; Zeng, Yi

    2015-11-01

    There has been much debate and controversy about the safety and efficacy of the topical use of tranexamic acid in primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The purpose of this study was to perform a meta-analysis to evaluate whether there is less blood loss and lower rates of transfusion after topical tranexamic acid administration in primary TKA. A systematic review of the electronic databases PubMed, CENTRAL, Web of Science, and Embase was undertaken. All randomized, controlled trials and prospective cohort studies evaluating the effectiveness of topical tranexamic acid during primary TKA were included. The focus of the analysis was on the outcomes of blood loss results, transfusion rate, and thromboembolic complications. Subgroup analysis was performed when possible. Of 387 studies identified, 16 comprising 1421 patients (1481 knees) were eligible for data extraction and meta-analysis. This study indicated that when compared with the control group, topical application of tranexamic acid significantly reduced total drain output (mean difference, -227.20; 95% confidence interval, -347.11 to -107.30; Ptranexamic acid in primary TKA. Furthermore, the currently available evidence does not support an increased risk of deep venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism due to tranexamic acid administration. Topical tranexamic acid was effective for reducing postoperative blood loss and transfusion requirements without increasing the prevalence of thromboembolic complications. Copyright 2015, SLACK Incorporated.

  18. Soil loss estimation and prioritization of sub-watersheds of Kali River basin, Karnataka, India, using RUSLE and GIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markose, Vipin Joseph; Jayappa, K S

    2016-04-01

    Most of the mountainous regions in tropical humid climatic zone experience severe soil loss due to natural factors. In the absence of measured data, modeling techniques play a crucial role for quantitative estimation of soil loss in such regions. The objective of this research work is to estimate soil loss and prioritize the sub-watersheds of Kali River basin using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model. Various thematic layers of RUSLE factors such as rainfall erosivity (R), soil erodibility (K), topographic factor (LS), crop management factor (C), and support practice factor (P) have been prepared by using multiple spatial and non-spatial data sets. These layers are integrated in geographic information system (GIS) environment and estimated the soil loss. The results show that ∼42 % of the study area falls under low erosion risk and only 6.97 % area suffer from very high erosion risk. Based on the rate of soil loss, 165 sub-watersheds have been prioritized into four categories-very high, high, moderate, and low erosion risk. Anthropogenic activities such as deforestation, construction of dams, and rapid urbanization are the main reasons for high rate of soil loss in the study area. The soil erosion rate and prioritization maps help in implementation of a proper watershed management plan for the river basin.

  19. Economic losses due to bovine brucellosis in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renato L. Santos

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Brucellosis is an important zoonosis of worldwide distribution. Reliable epidemiologic brucellosis data covering approximately 90% of the cattle population in Brazil have been recently published. Therefore, considering the scarcity of information regarding the economic impact of bovine brucellosis in Brazil, the goal of this study was to estimate economic impact of brucellosis on the Brazilian cattle industry. Several parameters including abortion and perinatal mortality rates, temporary infertility, replacement costs, mortality, veterinary costs, milk and meat losses were considered in the model. Bovine brucellosis in Brazil results in an estimated loss of R$ 420,12 or R$ 226,47 for each individual dairy or beef infected female above 24 months of age, respectively. The total estimated losses in Brazil attributed to bovine brucellosis were estimated to be approximately R$ 892 million (equivalent to about 448 million American dollars. Every 1% increase or decrease in prevalence is expected to increase or decrease the economic burden of brucellosis in approximately 155 million Reais.

  20. Biomass burning losses of carbon estimated from ecosystem modeling and satellite data analysis for the Brazilian Amazon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Christopher; Brooks Genovese, Vanessa; Klooster, Steven; Bobo, Matthew; Torregrosa, Alicia

    To produce a new daily record of gross carbon emissions from biomass burning events and post-burning decomposition fluxes in the states of the Brazilian Legal Amazon (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica (IBGE), 1991. Anuario Estatistico do Brasil, Vol. 51. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil pp. 1-1024). We have used vegetation greenness estimates from satellite images as inputs to a terrestrial ecosystem production model. This carbon allocation model generates new estimates of regional aboveground vegetation biomass at 8-km resolution. The modeled biomass product is then combined for the first time with fire pixel counts from the advanced very high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) to overlay regional burning activities in the Amazon. Results from our analysis indicate that carbon emission estimates from annual region-wide sources of deforestation and biomass burning in the early 1990s are apparently three to five times higher than reported in previous studies for the Brazilian Legal Amazon (Houghton et al., 2000. Nature 403, 301-304; Fearnside, 1997. Climatic Change 35, 321-360), i.e., studies which implied that the Legal Amazon region tends toward a net-zero annual source of terrestrial carbon. In contrast, our analysis implies that the total source fluxes over the entire Legal Amazon region range from 0.2 to 1.2 Pg C yr -1, depending strongly on annual rainfall patterns. The reasons for our higher burning emission estimates are (1) use of combustion fractions typically measured during Amazon forest burning events for computing carbon losses, (2) more detailed geographic distribution of vegetation biomass and daily fire activity for the region, and (3) inclusion of fire effects in extensive areas of the Legal Amazon covered by open woodland, secondary forests, savanna, and pasture vegetation. The total area of rainforest estimated annually to be deforested did not differ substantially among the previous analyses cited and our own.

  1. Mean total arsenic concentrations in chicken 1989-2000 and estimated exposures for consumers of chicken.

    OpenAIRE

    Lasky, Tamar; Sun, Wenyu; Kadry, Abdel; Hoffman, Michael K

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to estimate mean concentrations of total arsenic in chicken liver tissue and then estimate total and inorganic arsenic ingested by humans through chicken consumption. We used national monitoring data from the Food Safety and Inspection Service National Residue Program to estimate mean arsenic concentrations for 1994-2000. Incorporating assumptions about the concentrations of arsenic in liver and muscle tissues as well as the proportions of inorganic and organic a...

  2. An attempt to estimate the economic value of the loss of human life due to landslide and flood events in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvati, Paola; Bianchi, Cinzia; Hussin, Haydar; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2013-04-01

    Landslide and flood events in Italy cause wide and severe damage to buildings and infrastructure, and are frequently involved in the loss of human life. The cost estimates of past natural disasters generally refer to the amount of public money used for the restoration of the direct damage, and most commonly do not account for all disaster impacts. Other cost components, including indirect losses, are difficult to quantify and, among these, the cost of human lives. The value of specific human life can be identified with the value of a statistical life (VLS), defined as the value that an individual places on a marginal change in their likelihood of death This is different from the value of an actual life. Based on information of fatal car accidents in Italy, we evaluate the cost that society suffers for the loss of life due to landslide and flood events. Using a catalogue of fatal landslide and flood events, for which information about gender and age of the fatalities is known, we determine the cost that society suffers for the loss of their life. For the purpose, we calculate the economic value in terms of the total income that the working-age population involved in the fatal events would have earned over the course of their life. For the computation, we use the pro-capita income calculated as the ratio between the GDP and the population value in Italy for each year, since 1980. Problems occur for children and retired people that we decided not to include in our estimates.

  3. Bayesian Estimation of the Scale Parameter of Inverse Weibull Distribution under the Asymmetric Loss Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farhad Yahgmaei

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes different methods of estimating the scale parameter in the inverse Weibull distribution (IWD. Specifically, the maximum likelihood estimator of the scale parameter in IWD is introduced. We then derived the Bayes estimators for the scale parameter in IWD by considering quasi, gamma, and uniform priors distributions under the square error, entropy, and precautionary loss functions. Finally, the different proposed estimators have been compared by the extensive simulation studies in corresponding the mean square errors and the evolution of risk functions.

  4. Estimating conditional quantiles with the help of the pinball loss

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinwart, Ingo

    2008-01-01

    Using the so-called pinball loss for estimating conditional quantiles is a well-known tool in both statistics and machine learning. So far, however, only little work has been done to quantify the efficiency of this tool for non-parametric (modified) empirical risk minimization approaches. The goal of this work is to fill this gap by establishing inequalities that describe how close approximate pinball risk minimizers are to the corresponding conditional quantile. These inequalities, which hold under mild assumptions on the data-generating distribution, are then used to establish so-called variance bounds which recently turned out to play an important role in the statistical analysis of (modified) empirical risk minimization approaches. To illustrate the use of the established inequalities, we then use them to establish an oracle inequality for support vector machines that use the pinball loss. Here, it turns out that we obtain learning rates which are optimal in a min-max sense under some standard assumptions on the regularity of the conditional quantile function

  5. Estimating soil erosion losses in Korea with fallout cesium-137

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menzel, R.G.; Pilkyun Jung; Kwanshig Ryu; Kitai Um

    1987-01-01

    The contents of fallout 137 Cs in soil profiles were used to estimate erosion losses from steeply sloping croplands in Korea. Seven undisturbed sites with no apparent erosion or deposition, and 15 cropland sites were examined to a depth of 30 cm. The cropland sites had been cultivated for periods ranging from 5 to more than 80 y (median 10 y), and their slopes ranged from 5 to 26% (median 13%). All except one of the cropland sites contained less 137 Cs than undisturbed sites in the same area. Three cropland sites contained essentially no 137 Cs, indicating erosion of the entire cultivated layer of soil in from 6 to 10 years. Other cropland sites, particularly those with sandy texture, showed little loss of 137 Cs over longer periods of cultivation. Cesium-137 measurements may be useful in identifying site characteristics that reduce the vulnerability of sloping soils to erosion damage. (author)

  6. Epilepsy in Sweden: health care costs and loss of productivity--a register-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolin, Kristian; Lundgren, Anders; Berggren, Fredrik; Källén, Kristina

    2012-12-01

    The objective was to estimate health care costs and productivity losses due to epilepsy in Sweden and to compare these estimates to previously published estimates. Register data on health care utilisation, pharmaceutical sales, permanent disability and mortality were used to calculate health care costs and costs that accrue due to productivity losses. By linkage of register information, we were able to distinguish pharmaceuticals prescribed against epilepsy from prescriptions that were prompted by other indications. The estimated total cost of epilepsy in Sweden in 2009 was 441 million, which corresponds to an annual per-patient cost of 8,275. Health care accounted for about 16% of the estimated total cost, and drug costs accounted for about 7% of the total cost. The estimated health care cost corresponded to about 0.2% of the total health care cost in Sweden in 2009. Indirect costs were estimated at 370 million, 84% of which was due to sickness absenteeism. Costs resulting from epilepsy-attributable premature deaths or permanent disability to work accounted for about 1% of the total indirect cost in Sweden in 2009. The per-patient cost of epilepsy is substantial. Thus, even though the prevalence of the illness is relatively small, the aggregated cost that epilepsy incurs on society is significant.

  7. An estimation of the bleaching losses of the iodine laser

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Witte, K.J.

    1976-06-01

    Because of the variable transparency of the C 3 F 7 I the pump light energy absorbed in the oscillator mode is larger than the pump light energy absorbed in the amplifier mode. The estimation of the difference - here called bleaching losses and important in case of final amplifiers of high energy lasers - is studied in this investigation. It is shown that the ratio of these two energies is equivalent to the ratio of the optical energy stored in the amplifier mode and of the energy released in the oscillator mode. (orig.) [de

  8. Estimation of fuel loss due to idling of vehicles at a signalized intersection in Chennai, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasantha Kumar, S.; Gulati, Himanshu; Arora, Shivam

    2017-11-01

    The vehicles while waiting at signalized intersections are generally found to be in idling condition, i.e., not switching off their vehicles during red times. This phenomenon of idling of vehicles during red times at signalized intersections may lead to huge economic loss as lot of fuel is consumed by vehicles when they are in idling condition. The situation may even be worse in countries like India as different vehicle types consume varying amount of fuel. Only limited studies have been reported on estimation of fuel loss due to idling of vehicles in India. In the present study, one of the busy intersections in Chennai, namely, Tidel Park Junction in Rajiv Gandhi salai was considered. Data collection was carried out in one approach road of the intersection during morning and evening peak hours on a typical working day by manually noting down the red timings of each cycle and the corresponding number of two-wheelers, three-wheelers, passenger cars, light commercial vehicles (LCV) and heavy motorized vehicles (HMV) that were in idling mode. Using the fuel consumption values of various vehicles types suggested by Central Road Research Institute (CRRI), the total fuel loss during the study period was found to be Rs. 4,93,849/-. The installation of red timers, synchronization of signals, use of non-motorized transport for short trips and public awareness are some of the measures which government need to focus to save the fuel wasted at signalized intersections in major cities of India.

  9. Sensitivity of Earthquake Loss Estimates to Source Modeling Assumptions and Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reasenberg, Paul A.; Shostak, Nan; Terwilliger, Sharon

    2006-01-01

    Introduction: This report explores how uncertainty in an earthquake source model may affect estimates of earthquake economic loss. Specifically, it focuses on the earthquake source model for the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) created by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. The loss calculations are made using HAZUS-MH, a publicly available computer program developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for calculating future losses from earthquakes, floods and hurricanes within the United States. The database built into HAZUS-MH includes a detailed building inventory, population data, data on transportation corridors, bridges, utility lifelines, etc. Earthquake hazard in the loss calculations is based upon expected (median value) ground motion maps called ShakeMaps calculated for the scenario earthquake sources defined in WGCEP. The study considers the effect of relaxing certain assumptions in the WG02 model, and explores the effect of hypothetical reductions in epistemic uncertainty in parts of the model. For example, it addresses questions such as what would happen to the calculated loss distribution if the uncertainty in slip rate in the WG02 model were reduced (say, by obtaining additional geologic data)? What would happen if the geometry or amount of aseismic slip (creep) on the region's faults were better known? And what would be the effect on the calculated loss distribution if the time-dependent earthquake probability were better constrained, either by eliminating certain probability models or by better constraining the inherent randomness in earthquake recurrence? The study does not consider the effect of reducing uncertainty in the hazard introduced through models of attenuation and local site characteristics, although these may have a comparable or greater effect than does source-related uncertainty. Nor does it consider sources of uncertainty in the building inventory, building fragility curves, and other assumptions

  10. Medical Expenditures and Earnings Losses Among US Adults With Arthritis in 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Louise B; Cisternas, Miriam G; Pasta, David J; Helmick, Charles G; Yelin, Edward H

    2018-06-01

    We estimated the economic impact of arthritis using 2013 US Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data. We calculated arthritis-attributable and all-cause medical expenditures for adults age ≥18 years and arthritis-attributable earnings losses among those ages 18-64 years who had ever worked. We calculated arthritis-attributable costs using multistage regression-based methods, and conducted sensitivity analyses to estimate costs for 2 other arthritis definitions in MEPS. In 2013, estimated total national arthritis-attributable medical expenditures were $139.8 billion (range $135.9-$157.5 billion). Across expenditure categories, ambulatory care expenditures accounted for nearly half of arthritis-attributable expenditures. All-cause expenditures among adults with arthritis represented 50% of the $1.2 trillion national medical expenditures among all US adults in MEPS. Estimated total national arthritis-attributable earning losses were $163.7 billion (range $163.7-$170.0 billion). The percentage with arthritis who worked in the past year was 7.2 percentage points lower than those without arthritis (76.8% [95% confidence interval (95% CI)] 75.0-78.6 and 84.0% [95% CI 82.5-85.5], respectively, adjusted for sociodemographics and chronic conditions). Total arthritis-attributable medical expenditures and earnings losses were $303.5 billion (range $303.5-$326.9 billion). Total national arthritis-attributable medical care expenditures and earnings losses among adults with arthritis were $303.5 billion in 2013. High arthritis-attributable medical expenditures might be reduced by greater efforts to reduce pain and improve function. The high earnings losses were largely attributable to the substantially lower prevalence of working among those with arthritis compared to those without, signaling the need for interventions that keep people with arthritis in the workforce. © 2017, American College of Rheumatology.

  11. Statistically extracted fundamental watershed variables for estimating the loads of total nitrogen in small streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kronholm, Scott C.; Capel, Paul D.; Terziotti, Silvia

    2016-01-01

    Accurate estimation of total nitrogen loads is essential for evaluating conditions in the aquatic environment. Extrapolation of estimates beyond measured streams will greatly expand our understanding of total nitrogen loading to streams. Recursive partitioning and random forest regression were used to assess 85 geospatial, environmental, and watershed variables across 636 small (monitoring may be beneficial.

  12. A new topical hemostatic agent TT-173 reduces blood loss in a sheep model of total knee arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Centeno, Alberto; Rojas, Santiago; Arias, Belén; Miquel, Ignasi; Sánchez, Pilar; Ureta, Claudia; Rincón, Esther; López, Ramón; Murat, Jesús

    2017-12-01

    Total knee arthroplasty is associated with blood loss during the intervention and may require allogenic blood transfusion. Treatments such as tranexamic acid and fibrin sealants improved the bleeding control in several clinical trials, but the hemorrhage associated with the intervention is still significant. Thus far, very few studies have evaluated hemostatic treatments in animal models of total knee arthroplasty. This work describes a sheep model of bleeding associated with total knee arthroplasty and investigates a new class of hemostatic treatment based on recombinant tissue factor. Sheep were treated with the anticoagulant heparin, and the joint was accessed by a paramedial incision. Ligaments and menisci were eliminated and femoral condyles and tibia plateau were sectioned exposing the trabecular bone. An intra-articular drain was used to recover and quantify the blood loss during the 90-min period after treatment. The efficacy of one milligram and three milligrams of TT-173 was evaluated and compared with tranexamic acid. The occurrence of analytical alterations and systemic absorption was also investigated. Treatment with TT-173 reduced the blood loss in comparison with control or tranexamic acid. No significant differences were observed between the two doses evaluated. Moreover, a dose of six milligrams of TT-173 did not induce any clinical or analytical alteration, and significant systemic absorption was not observed. Data obtained strongly suggest that TT-173 could be useful in reducing the blood loss associated with total knee arthroplasty and without safety concerns derived from the systemic absorption of the product. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Experimental formulas and curves for estimating reactivity loss and radio-isotope yields on HWRR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Xi Zhi; Zhu HuanNan

    1999-01-01

    Based on the elemental conception of reactor physics and experiments on HWRR for years. A set of experimental formulas and curves has been got, which can be used to estimate reactivity loss and radio isotopes yield. (author)

  14. Estimation of the energy loss at the blades in rowing: common assumptions revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofmijster, M.J.; de Koning, J.J.; van Soest, A.J.

    2010-01-01

    In rowing, power is inevitably lost as kinetic energy is imparted to the water during push-off with the blades. Power loss is estimated from reconstructed blade kinetics and kinematics. Traditionally, it is assumed that the oar is completely rigid and that force acts strictly perpendicular to the

  15. Intra-articular injection of tranexamic acid via a drain plus drain-clamping to reduce blood loss in cementless total knee arthroplasty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mutsuzaki Hirotaka

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients undergoing cementless total knee arthroplasty (TKA sometimes suffer large blood loss. In a retrospective study, we explored whether postoperative intra-articular retrograde injection of tranexamic acid (TA and leaving a drain clamp in place for 1 h reduced blood loss. Patients and methods Patients (n = 140 treated with unilateral primary cementless TKA (posterior cruciate ligament retained were divided into two groups: those who had an intra-articular injection of TA (1000 mg and drain clamping for 1 h postoperatively (study group, n = 70 and those who were not given TA and did not undergo clamping of their drains (control group, n = 70. Postoperative total blood loss, volume of drainage, hemoglobin level, transfusion amounts and rates, D-dimer level at postoperative day (POD 7, and complications were recorded. Results Total blood loss, total drainage, mean transfusion volume, and transfusion rates were lower in the study group than in controls (P P P  Conclusions Immediately postoperative intra-articular retrograde injection of TA and 1 h of drain-clamping effectively reduced blood loss and blood transfusion after cementless TKA. We believe that this method is simple, easy, and suitable for these patients.

  16. Asthma-related productivity losses in Alberta, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyen X Thanh

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Nguyen X Thanh, Arto Ohinmaa, Charles YanInstitute of Health Economics, Edmonton, Alberta, CanadaObjectives: To estimate the number and cost of asthma-related productivity loss days due to absenteeism and presenteeism (at work but not fully functioning in Alberta in 2005.Methods: Using data from the 2005 Canadian Community Health Survey, this study focused on people of working age (18–64 years, who reported having an asthma diagnosis. Total asthma-related disability days, including in-bed days and activity-restricted days, were estimated by multiplying the difference in the means of total disability days between asthmatics and nonasthmatics adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics and other health conditions by a multiple linear regression, with the number of asthmatics in the population. Number of productivity loss days was a sum between the number of in-bed days (absenteeism and the number of activity-restricted days multiplied by a reduction in functional level (presenteeism, adjusted for five working days per week. Other data from Alberta or Canadian published literature, such as a reduction in functional level of 20%–30%, a labor participation rate of 73%, and an average wage of $158 per day in 2005, were also used for analyses.Results: The prevalence of asthma was estimated at 8.5% among approximately 2.1 million people of working age in Alberta in 2005. The difference in the means of total disability days between asthmatics and nonasthmatics was 0.487 (95% CI: 0.286–0.688 in a period of two weeks or 12.7 (7.5–17.9 in one year. With the reduction in functional level of 20%–30%, the number of asthma-related productivity loss days was estimated from 442 (259–624 to 533 (313–753 thousand, respectively. The corresponding cost was from $70 ($41–$99 to $84 ($49–$119 million. Of these, the presenteeism accounted for 42% to 52%.Conclusions: The results suggest that an improvement in the controlling of asthma could have a

  17. A regional mass balance model based on total ammoniacal nitrogen for estimating ammonia emissions from beef cattle in Alberta Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chai, Lilong; Kröbel, Roland; Janzen, H. Henry; Beauchemin, Karen A.; McGinn, Sean M.; Bittman, Shabtai; Atia, Atta; Edeogu, Ike; MacDonald, Douglas; Dong, Ruilan

    2014-08-01

    Animal feeding operations are primary contributors of anthropogenic ammonia (NH3) emissions in North America and Europe. Mathematical modeling of NH3 volatilization from each stage of livestock manure management allows comprehensive quantitative estimates of emission sources and nutrient losses. A regionally-specific mass balance model based on total ammoniacal nitrogen (TAN) content in animal manure was developed for estimating NH3 emissions from beef farming operations in western Canada. Total N excretion in urine and feces was estimated from animal diet composition, feed dry matter intake and N utilization for beef cattle categories and production stages. Mineralization of organic N, immobilization of TAN, nitrification, and denitrification of N compounds in manure, were incorporated into the model to account for quantities of TAN at each stage of manure handling. Ammonia emission factors were specified for different animal housing (feedlots, barns), grazing, manure storage (including composting and stockpiling) and land spreading (tilled and untilled land), and were modified for temperature. The model computed NH3 emissions from all beef cattle sub-classes including cows, calves, breeding bulls, steers for slaughter, and heifers for slaughter and replacement. Estimated NH3 emissions were about 1.11 × 105 Mg NH3 in Alberta in 2006, with a mean of 18.5 kg animal-1 yr-1 (15.2 kg NH3-N animal-1 yr-1) which is 23.5% of the annual N intake of beef cattle (64.7 kg animal-1 yr-1). The percentage of N intake volatilized as NH3-N was 50% for steers and heifers for slaughter, and between 11 and 14% for all other categories. Steers and heifers for slaughter were the two largest contributors (3.5 × 104 and 3.9 × 104 Mg, respectively) at 31.5 and 32.7% of total NH3 emissions because most growing animals were finished in feedlots. Animal housing and grazing contributed roughly 63% of the total NH3 emissions (feedlots, barns and pastures contributed 54.4, 0.2 and 8.1% of

  18. Flood Damage and Loss Estimation for Iowa on Web-based Systems using HAZUS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yildirim, E.; Sermet, M. Y.; Demir, I.

    2016-12-01

    Importance of decision support systems for flood emergency response and loss estimation increases with its social and economic impacts. To estimate the damage of the flood, there are several software systems available to researchers and decision makers. HAZUS-MH is one of the most widely used desktop program, developed by FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency), to estimate economic loss and social impacts of disasters such as earthquake, hurricane and flooding (riverine and coastal). HAZUS used loss estimation methodology and implements through geographic information system (GIS). HAZUS contains structural, demographic, and vehicle information across United States. Thus, it allows decision makers to understand and predict possible casualties and damage of the floods by running flood simulations through GIS application. However, it doesn't represent real time conditions because of using static data. To close this gap, an overview of a web-based infrastructure coupling HAZUS and real time data provided by IFIS (Iowa Flood Information System) is presented by this research. IFIS is developed by the Iowa Flood Center, and a one-stop web-platform to access community-based flood conditions, forecasts, visualizations, inundation maps and flood-related data, information, and applications. Large volume of real-time observational data from a variety of sensors and remote sensing resources (radars, rain gauges, stream sensors, etc.) and flood inundation models are staged on a user-friendly maps environment that is accessible to the general public. Providing cross sectional analyses between HAZUS-MH and IFIS datasets, emergency managers are able to evaluate flood damage during flood events easier and more accessible in real time conditions. With matching data from HAZUS-MH census tract layer and IFC gauges, economical effects of flooding can be observed and evaluated by decision makers. The system will also provide visualization of the data by using augmented reality for

  19. Estimating total evaporation at the field scale using the SEBS model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Estimating total evaporation at the field scale using the SEBS model and data infilling ... of two infilling techniques to create a daily satellite-derived ET time series. ... and produced R2 and RMSE values of 0.33 and 2.19 mm∙d-1, respectively, ...

  20. Estimation of total body water by bioelectrical impedance analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kushner, R.F.; Schoeller, D.A.

    1986-01-01

    Total body water (TBW) measured by bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) was directly compared with deuterium-isotope dilution in a total of 58 subjects. First, sex-specific and group equations were developed by multiple regression analysis in (10 each) obese and nonobese men and women. Height/resistive impedance was the most significant variable used to predict deuterium-dilution space (D2O-TBW) and, combined with weight, yielded R = 0.99 and SE of estimate = 1.75 L. Equations predicted D2O-TBW equally well for obese and nonobese subjects. Second, the equations were prospectively tested in a heterogeneous group of 6 males and 12 females. Sex-specific equations predicted D2O-TBW with good correlation coefficients (0.96 and 0.93), total error (2.34 and 2.89 L), and a small difference between mean predicted and measured D2O-TBW (-1.4 +/- 2.05 and -0.48 +/- 2.83 L). BIA predicts D2O-TBW more accurately than weight, height, and/or age. A larger population is required to validate the applicability of our equations

  1. Tranexamic acid administration to older patients undergoing primary total hip arthroplasty conserves hemoglobin and reduces blood loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Beheiry, Hossam; Lubberdink, Ashley; Clements, Nigel; Dihllon, Kiran; Sharma, Vicky

    2018-06-01

    Tranexamic acid effects in older people are difficult to predict. This study investigated the following research questions: 1) Is tranexamic acid effective in older patients undergoing primary total hip arthroplasty (THA)? and 2) Is there a difference in the effect of tranexamic acid between younger and older patients? This was a 2-phase retrospective matched-pair study of patients who underwent THA in 2007-2013. All procedures were performed by surgeons with at least 10 years' experience as senior consultant. In the first phase, 58 patients aged 65 years or more who received tranexamic acid were matched 1:1 with patients who did not receive tranexamic acid for age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification and body mass index. In the second phase, 58 patients aged 65 years or more who received tranexamic acid were matched 1:1 with patients less than 65 years of age who received tranexamic acid for sex, ASA classification and body mass index. The primary outcome measures were percent maximum decrease in hemoglobin level and estimated blood loss after surgery. In the first phase, patients who received tranexamic acid conserved postoperative hemoglobin by a mean of 10.26 g/L (standard deviation [SD] 9.89 g/L) compared to the control group ( p Tranexamic acid reduced the postoperative decrease in hemoglobin level and blood loss in older patients. Moreover, the significant hemoglobin-sparing effect of tranexamic acid in older patients was similar to that observed in younger patients.

  2. A generalized muon trajectory estimation algorithm with energy loss for application to muon tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatzidakis, Stylianos; Liu, Zhengzhi; Hayward, Jason P.; Scaglione, John M.

    2018-03-01

    This work presents a generalized muon trajectory estimation algorithm to estimate the path of a muon in either uniform or nonuniform media. The use of cosmic ray muons in nuclear nonproliferation and safeguard verification applications has recently gained attention due to the non-intrusive and passive nature of the inspection, penetrating capabilities, as well as recent advances in detectors that measure position and direction of the individual muons before and after traversing the imaged object. However, muon image reconstruction techniques are limited in resolution due to low muon flux and the effects of multiple Coulomb scattering (MCS). Current reconstruction algorithms, e.g., point of closest approach (PoCA) or straight-line path (SLP), rely on overly simple assumptions for muon path estimation through the imaged object. For robust muon tomography, efficient and flexible physics-based algorithms are needed to model the MCS process and accurately estimate the most probable trajectory of a muon as it traverses an object. In the present work, the use of a Bayesian framework and a Gaussian approximation of MCS is explored for estimation of the most likely path of a cosmic ray muon traversing uniform or nonuniform media and undergoing MCS. The algorithm's precision is compared to Monte Carlo simulated muon trajectories. It was found that the algorithm is expected to be able to predict muon tracks to less than 1.5 mm root mean square (RMS) for 0.5 GeV muons and 0.25 mm RMS for 3 GeV muons, a 50% improvement compared to SLP and 15% improvement when compared to PoCA. Further, a 30% increase in useful muon flux was observed relative to PoCA. Muon track prediction improved for higher muon energies or smaller penetration depth where energy loss is not significant. The effect of energy loss due to ionization is investigated, and a linear energy loss relation that is easy to use is proposed.

  3. Tranexamic acid reduces blood loss and blood transfusions in primary total hip arthroplasty: a prospective randomized double-blind study in 40 patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Husted, Henrik; Blønd, Lars; Sonne-Holm, Stig

    2003-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: We performed a prospective, randomized, double-blind study on 40 patients scheduled for primary total hip arthroplasty due to arthrosis or osteonecrosis to determine the effect of tranexamic acid on per- and postoperative blood losses and on the number of blood transfusions needed...... blood losses at removal of the drain 24 hours after the operation and the number of blood transfusions. RESULTS: Patients receiving tranexamic acid had a mean peroperative blood loss of 480 mL versus 622 mL in patients receiving placebo (p = 0.3), a postoperative blood loss of 334 mL versus 609 mL (p...... = 0.001), a total blood loss of 814 mL versus 1231 mL (p = 0.001) and a total need for 4 blood transfusions versus 25 (p = 0.04). No patient in either group had symptoms of deep venous thrombosis, pulmonary embolism or prolonged wound drainage. INTERPRETATION: Transemic acid is effective in reducing...

  4. Estimated Intakes and Sources of Total and Added Sugars in the Canadian Diet

    OpenAIRE

    Brisbois, Tristin D.; Marsden, Sandra L.; Anderson, G. Harvey; Sievenpiper, John L.

    2014-01-01

    National food supply data and dietary surveys are essential to estimate nutrient intakes and monitor trends, yet there are few published studies estimating added sugars consumption. The purpose of this report was to estimate and trend added sugars intakes and their contribution to total energy intake among Canadians by, first, using Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) nutrition survey data of intakes of sugars in foods and beverages, and second, using Statistics Canada availability data a...

  5. Conservatism of loss-of-coolant accident licensing analysis compared to experimental results and best-estimate calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, F.; Friedmann, P.

    1986-01-01

    The paper compares results of loss-of-coolant accident licensing analysis with experimental results and results of best-estimate calculations. The large safety margins resulting from the more realistic best-estimate results are used to show the high conservatism inherent in the licensing process of pressurized water reactors. (orig.) [de

  6. TOTAL INFRARED LUMINOSITY ESTIMATION OF RESOLVED AND UNRESOLVED GALAXIES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boquien, M.; Calzetti, D.; Bendo, G.; Dale, D.; Engelbracht, C.; Kennicutt, R.; Lee, J. C.; Van Zee, L.; Moustakas, J.

    2010-01-01

    The total infrared (TIR) luminosity from galaxies can be used to examine both star formation and dust physics. We provide here new relations to estimate the TIR luminosity from various Spitzer bands, in particular from the 8 μm and 24 μm bands. To do so, we use data for 45'' subregions within a subsample of nearby face-on spiral galaxies from the Spitzer Infrared Nearby Galaxies Survey (SINGS) that have known oxygen abundances as well as integrated galaxy data from the SINGS, the Local Volume Legacy survey (LVL), and Engelbracht et al. samples. Taking into account the oxygen abundances of the subregions, the star formation rate intensity, and the relative emission of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons at 8 μm, the warm dust at 24 μm, and the cold dust at 70 μm and 160 μm, we derive new relations to estimate the TIR luminosity from just one or two of the Spitzer bands. We also show that the metallicity and the star formation intensity must be taken into account when estimating the TIR luminosity from two wave bands, especially when data longward of 24 μm are not available.

  7. Estimation on the Flow Phenomena and the Pressure Loss for the Inlet Part of a Research Reactor Vessel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, Kyoung Woo; Oh, Jae Min; Seo, Jae Kwang; Yoon, Ju Hyeon; Lee, Doo Jeong

    2009-01-01

    For a research reactor, a conceptual primary cooling system (PCS) was designed for an adequate cooling to the reactor core. The developed primary cooling circuit consisted of decay tanks, pumps, heat exchangers, vacuum breakers, some isolation and check valves, connection piping, and instruments. The main function of the primary cooling pumps (PCPs) of the PCS was to circulate the reactor coolant through the fuel core and the heat exchangers during a normal operation. The head according to the design flow rate which was determined by the thermal hydraulic design analysis for the core should be estimated to design the PCPs in the fluid system. The pressure loss in the PCS can be calculated by the dimensional analysis of the pipe flow and the head loss coefficient of the components. However, it is insufficient to estimate the pressure loss for 3-dimensional flow phenomena such as the flow path in the reactor with the theoretical dimensional analysis based on experimental data. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the pressure loss of the part of a research reactor vessel. For evaluating the pressure loss, the commercially available CFD computer model, FLUENT, was employed. First, for validating the application of FLUENT to the pressure loss, a simple case was calculated and compared with the Idelchik empirical correlation. Secondly, several cases for the inlet part of a research reactor vessel were estimated by a FLUENT 3- dimensional calculation

  8. Estimation of total error in DWPF reported radionuclide inventories. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, T.B.

    1995-01-01

    The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) at the Savannah River Site is required to determine and report the radionuclide inventory of its glass product. For each macro-batch, the DWPF will report both the total amount (in curies) of each reportable radionuclide and the average concentration (in curies/gram of glass) of each reportable radionuclide. The DWPF is to provide the estimated error of these reported values of its radionuclide inventory as well. The objective of this document is to provide a framework for determining the estimated error in DWPF's reporting of these radionuclide inventories. This report investigates the impact of random errors due to measurement and sampling on the total amount of each reportable radionuclide in a given macro-batch. In addition, the impact of these measurement and sampling errors and process variation are evaluated to determine the uncertainty in the reported average concentrations of radionuclides in DWPF's filled canister inventory resulting from each macro-batch

  9. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  10. Rapid estimation of the economic consequences of global earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, operational since mid 2007, rapidly estimates the most affected locations and the population exposure at different levels of shaking intensities. The PAGER system has significantly improved the way aid agencies determine the scale of response needed in the aftermath of an earthquake. For example, the PAGER exposure estimates provided reasonably accurate assessments of the scale and spatial extent of the damage and losses following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) in China, the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Mw 6.3) in Italy, the 2010 Haiti earthquake (Mw 7.0), and the 2010 Chile earthquake (Mw 8.8). Nevertheless, some engineering and seismological expertise is often required to digest PAGER's exposure estimate and turn it into estimated fatalities and economic losses. This has been the focus of PAGER's most recent development. With the new loss-estimation component of the PAGER system it is now possible to produce rapid estimation of expected fatalities for global earthquakes (Jaiswal and others, 2009). While an estimate of earthquake fatalities is a fundamental indicator of potential human consequences in developing countries (for example, Iran, Pakistan, Haiti, Peru, and many others), economic consequences often drive the responses in much of the developed world (for example, New Zealand, the United States, and Chile), where the improved structural behavior of seismically resistant buildings significantly reduces earthquake casualties. Rapid availability of estimates of both fatalities and economic losses can be a valuable resource. The total time needed to determine the actual scope of an earthquake disaster and to respond effectively varies from country to country. It can take days or sometimes weeks before the damage and consequences of a disaster can be understood both socially and economically. The objective of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system is

  11. Use of tranexamic acid in primary total knee replacement: effects on perioperative blood loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volquind, Daniel; Zardo, Remi Antônio; Winkler, Bruno Costamilan; Londero, Bruno Bertagnolli; Zanelatto, Natália; Leichtweis, Gisele Perondi

    2016-01-01

    The use of tranexamic acid in primary total knee replacement surgeries has been the subject of constant study. The strategies to reduce bleeding are aimed at reducing the need for blood transfusion due to the risks involved. In this study we evaluated the use of tranexamic acid in reducing bleeding, need for blood transfusion, and prevalence of postoperative deep vein thrombosis in primary total knee replacement. 62 patients undergoing primary total knee replacement were enrolled in the study, from June 2012 to May 2013, and randomized to receive a single dose of 2.5g of intravenous tranexamic acid (Group TA) or saline (Group GP), 5min before opening the pneumatic tourniquet, respectively. Hemoglobin, hematocrit, and blood loss were recorded 24h after surgery. Deep vein thrombosis was investigated during patient's hospitalization and 15 and 30 days after surgery in review visits. There was no demographic difference between groups. Group TA had 13.89% decreased hematocrit (p=0.925) compared to placebo. Group TA had a decrease of 12.28% (p=0.898) in hemoglobin compared to Group GP. Group TA had a mean decrease of 187.35mL in blood loss (25.32%) compared to group GP (p=0.027). The number of blood transfusions was higher in Group GP (p=0.078). Thromboembolic events were not seen in this study. Tranexamic acid reduced postoperative bleeding without promoting thromboembolic events. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Brasileira de Anestesiologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  12. Nitrogen losses from dairy manure estimated through nitrogen mass balance and chemical markers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristov, Alexander N.; Zaman, S.; Vander Pol, M.; Ndegwa, P.; Campbell, L.; Silva, S.

    2009-01-01

    Ammonia is an important air and water pollutant, but the spatial variation in its concentrations presents technical difficulties in accurate determination of ammonia emissions from animal feeding operations. The objectives of this study were to investigate the relationship between ammonia volatilization and ??15N of dairy manure and the feasibility of estimating ammonia losses from a dairy facility using chemical markers. In Exp. 1, the N/P ratio in manure decreased by 30% in 14 d as cumulative ammonia losses increased exponentially. Delta 15N of manure increased throughout the course of the experiment and ??15N of emitted ammonia increased (p rights reserved.

  13. Estimation of total bacteria by real-time PCR in patients with periodontal disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brajović, Gavrilo; Popović, Branka; Puletić, Miljan; Kostić, Marija; Milasin, Jelena

    2016-01-01

    Periodontal diseases are associated with the presence of elevated levels of bacteria within the gingival crevice. The aim of this study was to evaluate a total amount of bacteria in subgingival plaque samples in patients with a periodontal disease. A quantitative evaluation of total bacteria amount using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) was performed on 20 samples of patients with ulceronecrotic periodontitis and on 10 samples of healthy subjects. The estimation of total bacterial amount was based on gene copy number for 16S rRNA that was determined by comparing to Ct values/gene copy number of the standard curve. A statistically significant difference between average gene copy number of total bacteria in periodontal patients (2.55 x 10⁷) and healthy control (2.37 x 10⁶) was found (p = 0.01). Also, a trend of higher numbers of the gene copy in deeper periodontal lesions (> 7 mm) was confirmed by a positive value of coefficient of correlation (r = 0.073). The quantitative estimation of total bacteria based on gene copy number could be an important additional tool in diagnosing periodontitis.

  14. Carbon stock loss from deforestation through 2013 in Brazilian Amazonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nogueira, Euler Melo; Yanai, Aurora M; Fonseca, Frederico O R; Fearnside, Philip Martin

    2015-03-01

    The largest carbon stock in tropical vegetation is in Brazilian Amazonia. In this ~5 million km(2) area, over 750,000 km(2) of forest and ~240,000 km(2) of nonforest vegetation types had been cleared through 2013. We estimate current carbon stocks and cumulative gross carbon loss from clearing of premodern vegetation in Brazil's 'Legal Amazonia' and 'Amazonia biome' regions. Biomass of 'premodern' vegetation (prior to major increases in disturbance beginning in the 1970s) was estimated by matching vegetation classes mapped at a scale of 1 : 250,000 and 29 biomass means from 41 published studies for vegetation types classified as forest (2317 1-ha plots) and as either nonforest or contact zones (1830 plots and subplots of varied size). Total biomass (above and below-ground, dry weight) underwent a gross reduction of 18.3% in Legal Amazonia (13.1 Pg C) and 16.7% in the Amazonia biome (11.2 Pg C) through 2013, excluding carbon loss from the effects of fragmentation, selective logging, fires, mortality induced by recent droughts and clearing of forest regrowth. In spite of the loss of carbon from clearing, large amounts of carbon were stored in stands of remaining vegetation in 2013, equivalent to 149 Mg C ha(-1) when weighted by the total area covered by each vegetation type in Legal Amazonia. Native vegetation in Legal Amazonia in 2013 originally contained 58.6 Pg C, while that in the Amazonia biome contained 56 Pg C. Emissions per unit area from clearing could potentially be larger in the future because previously cleared areas were mainly covered by vegetation with lower mean biomass than the remaining vegetation. Estimates of original biomass are essential for estimating losses to forest degradation. This study offers estimates of cumulative biomass loss, as well as estimates of premodern carbon stocks that have not been represented in recent estimates of deforestation impacts. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Estimating and controlling chromatic aberration losses for two-junction, two-terminal devices in refractive concentrator systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurtz, S.R. [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States); O`Neill, M.J. [ENTECH, Inc., Keller, TX (United States)

    1996-05-01

    Although previous studies have measured and calculated chromatic aberration losses and proposed methods for reducing these by modifying the optics, significant work remains to be done toward understanding how to quantity the losses and how various parameters affect this loss. This paper presents an analytical definition and calculation method for chromatic aberration losses. The effects of sheet resistance of the midlayers of the cell, total irradiance, incident spectrum, cell width, and diode quality factor are studied. A method for measuring the midlayer resistance in finished sells is described.

  16. Staged Custom, Intramedullary Antibiotic Spacers for Severe Segmental Bone Loss in Infected Total Hip Arthroplasty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atul F. Kamath

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Total hip arthroplasty (THA infections with severe bone loss pose significant reconstructive challenges. We present our experience with two-stage hip reimplantation using an intramedullary, antibiotic-impregnated nail. Methods. Three patients with infected THA with severe proximal femoral bone loss (Mallory type IIIB or greater were treated using a custom antibiotic spacer. Clinical outcomes and any complications were recorded. Average followup was 49 months from final reimplantation. Results. Mean age at spacer placement (stage 1 was 53 years. The mean Harris Hip Score at final followup was 80. Two patients had asymptomatic heterotopic ossification, and one patient had a 2 cm leg-length discrepancy. Conclusions. A custom intramedullary nail antibiotic spacer is a reliable option in the staged management of the infected THA with severe proximal femoral bone loss. Benefits of this technique include limb salvage with maintenance of leg length, soft tissue tension, and functional status.

  17. Social impacts of the work loss in cancer survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamauchi, Hideko; Nakagawa, Chizuko; Fukuda, Takashi

    2017-09-01

    As cancer frequently occurs during the most productive years of life, our purpose was to estimate the cost of work loss of cancer survivors and develop interventions to minimize the loss. We estimated the cost of the work loss from all cancers resulting from patients' inpatient, outpatient, and non-treatment days. This was calculated with a new method, the product of the "employment rate coefficient × productivity coefficient," making use of data published by the Japanese Ministries. The estimate of work loss on treatment days for all cancers was $1820.21 million in men and $939.38 million in women. In terms of disease classification, lung cancer was the largest cause in men, whereas breast cancer was the largest in women. On non-treatment days, the work losses because of gastric, colon, and lung cancers were large in men, while breast cancer was the largest in women and in total. The estimated loss for all cancers was $3685.506 million in men and $2502.565 million in women, when the product was assumed 0.5. In Japan, breast cancer was considered the leading cause for cost of work loss, and the most influential cause when the product of the "employment rate coefficient × productivity coefficient" for breast cancer was assumed the same as the product for all other types of cancers. It is necessary to establish support systems for working cancer survivors.

  18. Estimativa do potencial de perda de fósforo através da metodologia "P Index" Estimating P loss potencial by P Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana F. M. de Oliveira

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available O fósforo (P é considerado o elemento limitante da eutrofização, cuja perda, via escoamento superficial, pode comprometer a qualidade da água. O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar o potencial de perda de P do solo para a água, por meio da metodologia "P index" (Índice de P - IP utilizando-se dados experimentais brasileiros e comparar os dados estimados com os valores de P solúvel, P particulado e P total, determinados analiticamente. O IP foi desenvolvido nos Estados Unidos da América, em 1993, e tem sido amplamente utilizado em várias versões. Neste artigo se analisaram quatro versões da metodologia IP, utilizando-se dados de publicações científicas desenvolvidas no sul do Brasil, a partir das quais o valor do IP foi obtido e correlacionado com os dados de concentração e perda de P no escoamento superficial. Além da análise de correlação utilizou-se, também, a regressão "stepwise" para avaliar a influência de diferentes componentes do IP na concentração e perda de P. A versão do IP Original mostrou as melhores correlações considerando-se a concentração de P no escoamento superficial; já as análises de regressão indicaram que o fator erosão do solo não influenciou na concentração nem na perda de P do solo para a água.Phosphorus (P is the limiting element of eutrophication. The P losses by runoff can affect water quality. The objective of this study was to estimate the P loss from soil to water through the P Index method with Brazilian experimental data and to compare this estimated data with the analytically determined soluble P, particulate P and total P. The P Index was developed in the United States of America, in 1993, and has been widely used in several versions. In this study, four P Index versions were analysed using experiments from southern Brazil. The estimated P Indices were compared with the P concentration and loss in runoff. Besides the correlation analysis, the stepwise regression was used

  19. ATWS analysis for total loss of feedwater sequence in UCN 3 and 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, S. H.; Song, Y. M.; Kim, D. H.; Kim, S. D.; Park, S. Y.

    1999-01-01

    ATWS is a trip-failed severe accident initiated from the transients like a turbine trip, a control bank withdrawal, and a loss of feedwater which are expected to occur comparatively often (one or two occurrences / year). In this study, an ATWS sequence in Ulchin 3 and 4 is analyzed and the effects of the important systems are studied for accident management purpose using a MIDAS/PK computer code. The MIDAS/PK code has been developed via coupling a point kinetics module with the MELCOR code. The code calculates a primary peak pressure of about 24MPa at 240 seconds for the ATWS initiated by a TLOF (Total Loss of Feedwater) transient. Along with the basic ATWS analysis, several sensitivity runs are performed. From these, the turbines and the safety depressurization system (SDS) are judged to be important. The turbine trip resulting in a loss of offsite power and a RCP trip, degrades primary heat transfer to the secondary sides, and in turn, increases primary coolant temperature which reduces the reactor power due to the negative moderator temperature coefficient. Manual operation of SDS has an effect to lower the primary peak pressure considerably via supplementary depressurization in addition to the PORVs

  20. Regional earthquake loss estimation in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano - South Tyrol (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttenlau, Matthias; Winter, Benjamin

    2013-04-01

    Beside storm events geophysical events cause a majority of natural hazard losses on a global scale. However, in alpine regions with a moderate earthquake risk potential like in the study area and thereupon connected consequences on the collective memory this source of risk is often neglected in contrast to gravitational and hydrological hazards processes. In this context, the comparative analysis of potential disasters and emergencies on a national level in Switzerland (Katarisk study) has shown that earthquakes are the most serious source of risk in general. In order to estimate the potential losses of earthquake events for different return periods and loss dimensions of extreme events the following study was conducted in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano - South Tyrol (Italy). The applied methodology follows the generally accepted risk concept based on the risk components hazard, elements at risk and vulnerability, whereby risk is not defined holistically (direct, indirect, tangible and intangible) but with the risk category losses on buildings and inventory as a general risk proxy. The hazard analysis is based on a regional macroseismic scenario approach. Thereby, the settlement centre of each community (116 communities) is defined as potential epicentre. For each epicentre four different epicentral scenarios (return periods of 98, 475, 975 and 2475 years) are calculated based on the simple but approved and generally accepted attenuation law according to Sponheuer (1960). The relevant input parameters to calculate the epicentral scenarios are (i) the macroseismic intensity and (ii) the focal depth. The considered macroseismic intensities are based on a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Italian earthquake catalogue on a community level (Dipartimento della Protezione Civile). The relevant focal depth are considered as a mean within a defined buffer of the focal depths of the harmonized earthquake catalogues of Italy and Switzerland as well as

  1. High carbon losses due to recent cropland expansion in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spawn, S.; Lark, T.; Gibbs, H.

    2017-12-01

    Land conversion for agriculture in the United States has reached record highs in recent years. From 2008 to 2012 nearly 30,000 square kilometers of previously un-cultivated land were converted to agricultural land use with much of this expansion occurring on grasslands (77%) and shrublands (8%). To understand the effects of this conversion on global C cycling, we created novel, spatially explicit biomass maps for these biomes by combining existing satellite data products with models derived from field measurements. We then estimated changes in existing C stocks by combining our derived data with existing Landsat-scale data on land cover, land conversion, forest biomass and soil organic carbon (C) stocks. We find that conversion results in annual C losses of approximately 25 Tg C from US terrestrial ecosystems. Nationwide, roughly 80% of total emissions result from committed soil organic C losses. While biomass losses from expansion into forests and wetlands are disproportionately high per unit area, the vast majority of C losses occurred in grassland ecosystems, with grassland roots representing close to 70% of total biomass losses across all biomes. C losses are partially offset each year by agricultural abandonment which we estimate could sequester as much as 15 Tg C, annually. Taken together, we find that US agricultural expansion results in net annual emissions of 10 Tg C which is nearly 30% of emissions from existing US croplands. Our estimate is comparable to a recent analogous estimate for conversion of the Brazilian Cerrado and is equivalent to 10% of annual C losses from pantropical deforestation, suggesting that the effects of US cropland expansion could be globally significant.

  2. Pressure loss characteristics of LSTF steam generator heat-transfer tubes. Pressure loss increase due to tube internal instruments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Mitsuhiro

    1994-11-01

    The steam generator of the Large-Scale Test Facility (LSTF) includes 141 heat-transfer U-tubes with different lengths. Six U-tubes among them are furnished with 15 or 17 probe-type instruments (conduction probe with a thermocouple; CPT) protuberant into the primary side of the U-tubes. Other 135 U-tubes are not instrumented. This results in different hydraulic conditions between the instrumented and non-instrumented U-tubes with the same length. A series of pressure loss characteristics tests was conducted at a test apparatus simulating both types of U-tube. The following pressure loss coefficient (K CPT ) was reduced as a function of Reynolds number (Re) from these tests under single-phase water flow conditions. K CPT =0.16 5600≤Re≤52820, K CPT =60.66xRe -0.688 2420≤Re≤5600, K CPT =2.664x10 6 Re -2.06 1371≤Re≤2420. The maximum uncertainty is 22%. By using these results, the total pressure loss coefficients of full length U-tubes were estimated. It is clarified that the total pressure loss of the shortest instrumented U-tube is equivalent to that of the middle-length non-instrumented U-tube and also that a middle-length instrumented U-tube is equivalent to the longest non-instrumented U-tube. Concludingly. it is important to take account of the CPT pressure loss mentioned above in estimation of fluid behavior at the non-instrumented U-tubes either by using the LSTF experiment data from the CPT-installed U-tubes or by using any analytical codes. (author)

  3. The use of bioelectrical impedance analysis to estimate total body water in young children with cerebral palsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Kristie L; Boyd, Roslyn N; Walker, Jacqueline L; Stevenson, Richard D; Davies, Peter S W

    2013-08-01

    Body composition assessment is an essential component of nutritional evaluation in children with cerebral palsy. This study aimed to validate bioelectrical impedance to estimate total body water in young children with cerebral palsy and determine best electrode placement in unilateral impairment. 55 young children with cerebral palsy across all functional ability levels were included. Height/length was measured or estimated from knee height. Total body water was estimated using a Bodystat 1500MDD and three equations, and measured using the gold standard, deuterium dilution technique. Comparisons were made using Bland Altman analysis. For children with bilateral impairment, the Fjeld equation estimated total body water with the least bias (limits of agreement): 0.0 L (-1.4 L to 1.5 L); the Pencharz equation produced the greatest: 2.7 L (0.6 L-4.8 L). For children with unilateral impairment, differences between measured and estimated total body water were lowest on the unimpaired side using the Fjeld equation 0.1 L (-1.5 L to 1.6 L)) and greatest for the Pencharz equation. The ability of bioelectrical impedance to estimate total body water depends on the equation chosen. The Fjeld equation was the most accurate for the group, however, individual results varied by up to 18%. A population specific equation was developed and may enhance the accuracy of estimates. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) number: ACTRN12611000616976. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  4. MASS LOSS IN PRE-MAIN-SEQUENCE STARS VIA CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR ANGULAR MOMENTUM LOSS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aarnio, Alicia N. [Astronomy Department, University of Michigan, 830 Dennison Building, 500 Church Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Matt, Sean P. [Laboratoire AIM Paris-Saclay, CEA/Irfu Universite Paris-Diderot CNRS/INSU, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Stassun, Keivan G., E-mail: aarnio@umich.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN 37235 (United States)

    2012-11-20

    We develop an empirical model to estimate mass-loss rates via coronal mass ejections (CMEs) for solar-type pre-main-sequence (PMS) stars. Our method estimates the CME mass-loss rate from the observed energies of PMS X-ray flares, using our empirically determined relationship between solar X-ray flare energy and CME mass: log (M {sub CME}[g]) = 0.63 Multiplication-Sign log (E {sub flare}[erg]) - 2.57. Using masses determined for the largest flaring magnetic structures observed on PMS stars, we suggest that this solar-calibrated relationship may hold over 10 orders of magnitude in flare energy and 7 orders of magnitude in CME mass. The total CME mass-loss rate we calculate for typical solar-type PMS stars is in the range 10{sup -12}-10{sup -9} M {sub Sun} yr{sup -1}. We then use these CME mass-loss rate estimates to infer the attendant angular momentum loss leading up to the main sequence. Assuming that the CME outflow rate for a typical {approx}1 M {sub Sun} T Tauri star is <10{sup -10} M {sub Sun} yr{sup -1}, the resulting spin-down torque is too small during the first {approx}1 Myr to counteract the stellar spin-up due to contraction and accretion. However, if the CME mass-loss rate is {approx}> 10{sup -10} M {sub Sun} yr{sup -1}, as permitted by our calculations, then the CME spin-down torque may influence the stellar spin evolution after an age of a few Myr.

  5. Quantifying soil carbon loss and uncertainty from a peatland wildfire using multi-temporal LiDAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Ashwan D.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Wurster, F.; Zhu, Zhiliang; Ward, S.; Newcomb, Doug; Murray, R.

    2015-01-01

    Peatlands are a major reservoir of global soil carbon, yet account for just 3% of global land cover. Human impacts like draining can hinder the ability of peatlands to sequester carbon and expose their soils to fire under dry conditions. Estimating soil carbon loss from peat fires can be challenging due to uncertainty about pre-fire surface elevations. This study uses multi-temporal LiDAR to obtain pre- and post-fire elevations and estimate soil carbon loss caused by the 2011 Lateral West fire in the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge, VA, USA. We also determine how LiDAR elevation error affects uncertainty in our carbon loss estimate by randomly perturbing the LiDAR point elevations and recalculating elevation change and carbon loss, iterating this process 1000 times. We calculated a total loss using LiDAR of 1.10 Tg C across the 25 km2 burned area. The fire burned an average of 47 cm deep, equivalent to 44 kg C/m2, a value larger than the 1997 Indonesian peat fires (29 kg C/m2). Carbon loss via the First-Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM) was estimated to be 0.06 Tg C. Propagating the LiDAR elevation error to the carbon loss estimates, we calculated a standard deviation of 0.00009 Tg C, equivalent to 0.008% of total carbon loss. We conclude that LiDAR elevation error is not a significant contributor to uncertainty in soil carbon loss under severe fire conditions with substantial peat consumption. However, uncertainties may be more substantial when soil elevation loss is of a similar or smaller magnitude than the reported LiDAR error.

  6. Robust Improvement in Estimation of a Covariance Matrix in an Elliptically Contoured Distribution Respect to Quadratic Loss Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Khodadadi

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Let S be matrix of residual sum of square in linear model Y = Aβ + e where matrix e is distributed as elliptically contoured with unknown scale matrix Σ. In present work, we consider the problem of estimating Σ with respect to squared loss function, L(Σˆ , Σ = tr(ΣΣˆ −1 −I 2 . It is shown that improvement of the estimators were obtained by James, Stein [7], Dey and Srivasan [1] under the normality assumption remains robust under an elliptically contoured distribution respect to squared loss function

  7. Efforts to Support Consumer Enrollment Decisions Using Total Cost Estimators: Lessons from the Affordable Care Act’s Marketplaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giovannelli, Justin; Curran, Emily

    2017-02-01

    Issue: Policymakers have sought to improve the shopping experience on the Affordable Care Act’s marketplaces by offering decision support tools that help consumers better understand and compare their health plan options. Cost estimators are one such tool. They are designed to provide consumers a personalized estimate of the total cost--premium, minus subsidy, plus cost-sharing--of their coverage options. Cost estimators were available in most states by the start of the fourth open enrollment period. Goal: To understand the experiences of marketplaces that offer a total cost estimator and the interests and concerns of policymakers from states that are not using them. Methods: Structured interviews with marketplace officials, consumer enrollment assisters, technology vendors, and subject matter experts; analysis of the total cost estimators available on the marketplaces as of October 2016. Key findings and conclusions: Informants strongly supported marketplace adoption of a total cost estimator. Marketplaces that offer an estimator faced a range of design choices and varied significantly in their approaches to resolving them. Interviews suggested a clear need for additional consumer testing and data analysis of tool usage and for sustained outreach to enrollment assisters to encourage greater use of the estimators.

  8. Tranexamic Acid Reduced the Percent of Total Blood Volume Lost During Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Kristen E; Butler, Elissa K; Barrack, Tara; Ledonio, Charles T; Forte, Mary L; Cohn, Claudia S; Polly, David W

    2017-01-01

    Multilevel posterior spine fusion is associated with significant intraoperative blood loss. Tranexamic acid is an antifibrinolytic agent that reduces intraoperative blood loss. The goal of this study was to compare the percent of total blood volume lost during posterior spinal fusion (PSF) with or without tranexamic acid in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Thirty-six AIS patients underwent PSF in 2011-2014; the last half (n=18) received intraoperative tranexamic acid. We retrieved relevant demographic, hematologic, intraoperative and outcomes information from medical records. The primary outcome was the percent of total blood volume lost, calculated from estimates of intraoperative blood loss (numerator) and estimated total blood volume per patient (denominator, via Nadler's equations). Unadjusted outcomes were compared using standard statistical tests. Tranexamic acid and no-tranexamic acid groups were similar (all p>0.05) in mean age (16.1 vs. 15.2 years), sex (89% vs. 83% female), body mass index (22.2 vs. 20.2 kg/m2), preoperative hemoglobin (13.9 vs. 13.9 g/dl), mean spinal levels fused (10.5 vs. 9.6), osteotomies (1.6 vs. 0.9) and operative duration (6.1 hours, both). The percent of total blood volume lost (TBVL) was significantly lower in the tranexamic acid-treated vs. no-tranexamic acid group (median 8.23% vs. 14.30%, p = 0.032); percent TBVL per level fused was significantly lower with tranexamic acid than without it (1.1% vs. 1.8%, p=0.048). Estimated blood loss (milliliters) was similar across groups. Tranexamic acid significantly reduced the percentage of total blood volume lost versus no tranexamic acid in AIS patients who underwent PSF using a standardized blood loss measure.Level of Evidence: 3. Institutional Review Board status: This medical record chart review (minimal risk) study was approved by the University of Minnesota Institutional Review Board.

  9. Using non-performing loan ratios as default rates in the estimation of credit losses and macroeconomic credit risk stress testing: A case from Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guray Kucukkocaoglu

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, inspired by the Credit Portfolio View approach, we intend to develop an econometric credit risk model to estimate credit loss distributions of Turkish Banking System under baseline and stress macro scenarios, by substituting default rates with non-performing loan (NPL ratios. Since customer number based historical default rates are not available for the whole Turkish banking system’s credit portfolio, we used NPL ratios as dependent variable instead of default rates, a common practice for many countries where historical default rates are not available. Although, there are many problems in using NPL ratios as default rates such as underestimating portfolio losses as a result of totally non-homogeneous total credit portfolios and transferring non-performing loans to asset management companies from banks’ balance sheets, our aim is to underline and limit some ignored problems using accounting based NPL ratios as default rates in macroeconomic credit risk modeling. Developed models confirm the strong statistical relationship between systematic component of credit risk and macroeconomic variables in Turkey. Stress test results also are compatible with the past experiences

  10. Productivity Losses Associated with Head and Neck Cancer Using the Human Capital and Friction Cost Approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, Alison M; Hanly, Paul; Timmons, Aileen; Walsh, Paul M; O'Neill, Ciaran; O'Sullivan, Eleanor; Gooberman-Hill, Rachael; Thomas, Audrey Alforque; Gallagher, Pamela; Sharp, Linda

    2015-08-01

    Previous studies suggest that productivity losses associated with head and neck cancer (HNC) are higher than in other cancers. These studies have only assessed a single aspect of productivity loss, such as temporary absenteeism or premature mortality, and have only used the Human Capital Approach (HCA). The Friction Cost Approach (FCA) is increasingly recommended, although has not previously been used to assess lost production from HNC. The aim of this study was to estimate the lost productivity associated with HNC due to different types of absenteeism and premature mortality, using both the HCA and FCA. Survey data on employment status were collected from 251 HNC survivors in Ireland and combined with population-level survival estimates and national wage data. The cost of temporary and permanent time off work, reduced working hours and premature mortality using both the HCA and FCA were calculated. Estimated total productivity losses per employed person of working age were EUR253,800 using HCA and EUR6800 using FCA. The main driver of HCA costs was premature mortality (38% of total) while for FCA it was temporary time off (73% of total). The productivity losses associated with head and neck cancer are substantial, and return to work assistance could form an important part of rehabilitation. Use of both the HCA and FCA approaches allowed different drivers of productivity losses to be identified, due to the different assumptions of the two methods. For future estimates of productivity losses, the use of both approaches may be pragmatic.

  11. Evaluation of seasonality on total water intake, water loss and water balance in the general population in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malisova, O; Bountziouka, V; Panagiotakos, D Β; Zampelas, A; Kapsokefalou, M

    2013-07-01

    Water balance is achieved when water intake from solid and fluid foods and drinking water meets water losses, mainly in sweat, urine and faeces. Seasonality, particularly in Mediterranean countries that have a hot summer, may affect water loss and consequently water balance. Water balance has not been estimated before on a population level and the effect of seasonality has not been evaluated. The present study aimed to compare water balance, intake and loss in summer and winter in a sample of the general population in Greece. The Water Balance Questionnaire (WBQ) was used to evaluate water balance, estimating water intake and loss in summer (n = 480) and in winter (n = 412) on a stratified sample of the general population in Athens, Greece. In winter, mean (SD) water balance was -63 (1478) mL/day(-1) , mean (SD)water intake was 2892 (987) mL/day(-1) and mean (quartile range) water loss was 2637 (1810-3922) mL/day(-1) . In summer, mean (SD) water balance was -58 (2150) mL/day(-1) , mean (SD) water intake was 3875 (1373) mL/day(-1) and mean (quartile range) water loss was 3635 (2365-5258) mL/day(-1) . Water balance did not differ between summer and winter (P = 0.96); however, the data distribution was different; in summer, approximately 8% more participants were falling in the low and high water balance categories. Differences in water intake from different sources were identified (P balance in summer and winter was not different. However, water intake and loss were approximately 40% higher in summer than in winter. More people were falling in the low and high water balance categories in summer when comparing the distribution on water balance in winter. © 2013 The Authors Journal of Human Nutrition and Dietetics © 2013 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

  12. Estimating Total Discharge in the Yangtze River Basin Using Satellite-Based Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel A. Andam‑Akorful

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The measurement of total basin discharge along coastal regions is necessary for understanding the hydrological and oceanographic issues related to the water and energy cycles. However, only the observed streamflow (gauge-based observation is used to estimate the total fluxes from the river basin to the ocean, neglecting the portion of discharge that infiltrates to underground and directly discharges into the ocean. Hence, the aim of this study is to assess the total discharge of the Yangtze River (Chang Jiang basin. In this study, we explore the potential response of total discharge to changes in precipitation (from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission—TRMM, evaporation (from four versions of the Global Land Data Assimilation—GLDAS, namely, CLM, Mosaic, Noah and VIC, and water-storage changes (from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment—GRACE by using the terrestrial water budget method. This method has been validated by comparison with the observed streamflow, and shows an agreement with a root mean square error (RMSE of 14.30 mm/month for GRACE-based discharge and 20.98 mm/month for that derived from precipitation minus evaporation (P − E. This improvement of approximately 32% indicates that monthly terrestrial water-storage changes, as estimated by GRACE, cannot be considered negligible over Yangtze basin. The results for the proposed method are more accurate than the results previously reported in the literature.

  13. Estimation of the total absorbed dose by quartz in retrospective conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correcher, V.; Delgado, A.

    2003-01-01

    The estimation of the total absorbed dose is of great interest in areas affected by a radiological accident when no conventional dosimetric systems are available. This paper reports about the usual methodology employed in dose reconstruction from the thermoluminescence (TL) properties of natural quartz, extracted from selected ceramic materials (12 bricks) picked up in the Chernobyl area. It has been possible to evaluate doses under 50mGy after more than 11 years later since the radiological accident happened. The main advance of this fact is the reduction of the commonly accepted limit dose estimation more than 20 times employing luminescence methods. (Author) 11 refs

  14. Mass loss from S stars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jura, M.

    1988-01-01

    The mass-loss process in S stars is studied using 65 S stars from the listing of Wing and Yorka (1977). The role of pulsations in the mass-loss process is examined. It is detected that stars with larger mass-loss rates have a greater amplitude of pulsations. The dust-to-gas ratio for the S stars is estimated as 0.002 and the average mass-loss rate is about 6 x 10 to the -8th solar masses/yr. Some of the properties of the S stars, such as scale height, surface density, and lifetime, are measured. It is determined that scale height is 200 pc; the total duration of the S star phase is greater than or equal to 30,000 yr; and the stars inject 3 x 10 to the -6th solar masses/sq kpc yr into the interstellar medium. 46 references

  15. Estimating Losses from Volcanic Ash in case of a Mt. Baekdu Eruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Soonyoung; Yoon, Seong-Min; Kim, Sung-Wook; Choi, Eun-Kyeong

    2014-05-01

    We will present the preliminary result of economic losses in South Korea in case of a Mt. Baedu eruption. The Korean peninsula has Mt. Baekdu in North Korea, which will soon enter an active phase, according to volcanologists. The anticipated eruption will be explosive given the viscous and grassy silica-rich magma, and is expected to be one of the largest in recent millennia. We aim to assess the impacts of this eruption to South Korea and help government prepare for the volcanic disasters. In particular, the economic impact from volcanic ash is estimated given the distance from Mt. Baedu to South Korea. In order to scientifically estimate losses from volcanic ash, we need volcanic ash thickness, inventory database, and damage functions between ash thickness and damage ratios for each inventory item. We use the volcanic ash thickness calculated by other research groups in Korea, and they estimated the ash thickness for each eruption scenario using average wind fields. Damage functions are built using the historical damage data in the world, and inventory database is obtained from available digital maps in Korea. According to the preliminary results, the economic impact from volcanic ash is not significant because the ash is rarely deposited in South Korea under general weather conditions. However, the ash can impact human health and environment. Also worst case scenarios can have the significant economic impacts in Korea, and may result in global issues. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by a grant [NEMA-BAEKDUSAN-2012-1-3] from the Volcanic Disaster Preparedness Research Center sponsored by National Emergency Management Agency of Korea.

  16. Improved estimates of filtered total mercury loadings and total mercury concentrations of solids from potential sources to Sinclair Inlet, Kitsap County, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulson, Anthony J.; Conn, Kathleen E.; DeWild, John F.

    2013-01-01

    Previous investigations examined sources and sinks of mercury to Sinclair Inlet based on historic and new data. This included an evaluation of mercury concentrations from various sources and mercury loadings from industrial discharges and groundwater flowing from the Bremerton naval complex to Sinclair Inlet. This report provides new data from four potential sources of mercury to Sinclair Inlet: (1) filtered and particulate total mercury concentrations of creek water during the wet season, (2) filtered and particulate total mercury releases from the Navy steam plant following changes in the water softening process and discharge operations, (3) release of mercury from soils to groundwater in two landfill areas at the Bremerton naval complex, and (4) total mercury concentrations of solids in dry dock sumps that were not affected by bias from sequential sampling. The previous estimate of the loading of filtered total mercury from Sinclair Inlet creeks was based solely on dry season samples. Concentrations of filtered total mercury in creek samples collected during wet weather were significantly higher than dry weather concentrations, which increased the estimated loading of filtered total mercury from creek basins from 27.1 to 78.1 grams per year. Changes in the concentrations and loading of filtered and particulate total mercury in the effluent of the steam plant were investigated after the water softening process was changed from ion-exchange to reverse osmosis and the discharge of stack blow-down wash began to be diverted to the municipal water-treatment plant. These changes reduced the concentrations of filtered and particulate total mercury from the steam plant of the Bremerton naval complex, which resulted in reduced loadings of filtered total mercury from 5.9 to 0.15 grams per year. Previous investigations identified three fill areas on the Bremerton naval complex, of which the western fill area is thought to be the largest source of mercury on the base

  17. Tranexamic acid for control of blood loss in bilateral total knee replacement in a single stage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mandeep S Dhillon

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Tranexamic acid (TEA reduces blood loss and red cell transfusions in patients undergoing unilateral total knee arthroplasty (TKA. However, there is not much literature regarding the use of TEA in patients undergoing bilateral TKA in a single stage and the protocols for administration of TEA in such patients are ill-defined. Materials and Methods: We carried out a case control study evaluating the effect of TEA on postoperative hemoglobin (Hb, total drain output, and number of blood units transfused in 52 patients undergoing bilateral TKA in a single stage, and compared it with 56 matched controls who did not receive TEA. Two doses of TEA were administered in doses of 10 mg / kg each (slow intravenous (IV infusion, with the first dose given just before tourniquet release of the first knee and the second dose three hours after the first one. Results: A statistically significant reduction in the total drain output and requirement of allogenic blood transfusion in cases who received TEA, as compared to the controls was observed. The postoperative Hb and Hb at the time of discharge were found to be lower in the control group, and this result was found to be statistically significant. Conclusion: TEA administered in patients undergoing single stage bilateral TKA helped reduce total blood loss and decreased allogenic blood transfusion requirements. This might be particularly relevant, where facilities such as autologous reinfusion might not be available.

  18. Is intraarticular administration of tranexamic acid better than its intravenous administration in reducing blood loss after total knee arthroplasty?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ameet Pispati

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: It has been well-established now that intravenous (IV tranexamic acid (TXA is a potent agent to control postoperative blood loss following total knee arthroplasty (TKA. Recently, intraarticular administration of this agent has also shown good efficacy for the same. Aims: Comparison of postoperative blood loss between IV and topical administration of TXA in TKAs. Materials and Design: Eighty-six TKAs on knees were included in this study. Randomization was done so that 40 TKA received 1 g of IV TXA, while 46 had intraarticular administration of 1 g TXA. Subjets and Methods: We compared the postoperative blood loss by calculating the difference in pre- and postop hemoglobin and need for blood transfusion. Functional assessment was done on basis of Western Ontario McMaster Osteo-Arthritis Index (WOMAC scores and complications like postoperative infection, oozing from the wound site and thromboembolic manifestations. Results: Blood loss was significantly less in the intraarticular administration group as compared to the IV injection group. Total blood loss, blood transfusion group, and drain output was also less but the difference was not significant. The functional assessment (WOMAC scores were equivocal and so were the complications including thromboembolic manifestations (two cases each of deep vein thrombosis (DVT and no cases of pulmonary embolism (PE. Conclusion: Intraarticular administration of TXA to prevent postoperative blood loss in TKA is a safe and effective alternative/adjunct to its IV administration.

  19. Estimation of the effect of food irradiation on total dietary vitamin availability as compared with dietary allowances: study for Argentina

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narvaiz, P.; Ladomery, L.G.

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of this work was to evaluate whether irradiation treatment of all foods, for which this treatment is of recognised technological usefulness, would have any detrimental effect on total dietary vitamin availability for consumption by the Argentinian population. Per capita availability of foods produced in or imported into Argentina that could be usefully irradiated and which are usually consumed in the country was recorded from FAO food balance sheets. The vitamin content of the foods and the vitamin losses occurring under good irradiation practices were gathered from the literature. The nutritional impact of vitamin losses due to irradiation was estimated by comparing results to the Recommended Dietary Allowances of the US National Research Council. The vitamins studied were: A, D, E, K, ascorbic acid, thiamine, riboflavin, niacin, pyridoxine, biotin, cyanocobalamin, folacin and pantothenic acid. Results showed that, even if irradiation was applied to every food which could be usefully treated, vitamin availabilities would exceed 100% of the respective RDA and so no adverse nutritional impact would be expected, except for folacin and vitamin D. However, typical availabilities of folate and vitamin D are less than the RDA. Synthesis of vitamin D in the skin from 7-dehydrocholesterol would suggest no nutritional problem. Available data on folic acid losses due to food irradiation are incomplete and suggest the need for further experimental research

  20. Spatial and temporal estimation of soil loss for the sustainable management of a wet semi-arid watershed cluster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rejani, R; Rao, K V; Osman, M; Srinivasa Rao, Ch; Reddy, K Sammi; Chary, G R; Pushpanjali; Samuel, Josily

    2016-03-01

    The ungauged wet semi-arid watershed cluster, Seethagondi, lies in the Adilabad district of Telangana in India and is prone to severe erosion and water scarcity. The runoff and soil loss data at watershed, catchment, and field level are necessary for planning soil and water conservation interventions. In this study, an attempt was made to develop a spatial soil loss estimation model for Seethagondi cluster using RUSLE coupled with ARCGIS and was used to estimate the soil loss spatially and temporally. The daily rainfall data of Aphrodite for the period from 1951 to 2007 was used, and the annual rainfall varied from 508 to 1351 mm with a mean annual rainfall of 950 mm and a mean erosivity of 6789 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) year(-1). Considerable variation in land use land cover especially in crop land and fallow land was observed during normal and drought years, and corresponding variation in the erosivity, C factor, and soil loss was also noted. The mean value of C factor derived from NDVI for crop land was 0.42 and 0.22 in normal year and drought years, respectively. The topography is undulating and major portion of the cluster has slope less than 10°, and 85.3% of the cluster has soil loss below 20 t ha(-1) year(-1). The soil loss from crop land varied from 2.9 to 3.6 t ha(-1) year(-1) in low rainfall years to 31.8 to 34.7 t ha(-1) year(-1) in high rainfall years with a mean annual soil loss of 12.2 t ha(-1) year(-1). The soil loss from crop land was higher in the month of August with an annual soil loss of 13.1 and 2.9 t ha(-1) year(-1) in normal and drought year, respectively. Based on the soil loss in a normal year, the interventions recommended for 85.3% of area of the watershed includes agronomic measures such as contour cultivation, graded bunds, strip cropping, mixed cropping, crop rotations, mulching, summer plowing, vegetative bunds, agri-horticultural system, and management practices such as broad bed furrow, raised sunken beds, and harvesting available water

  1. Estimation of total amounts of anthropogenic radionuclides in the Japan Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ito, Toshimichi; Otosaka, Shigeyoshi; Kawamura, Hideyuki

    2007-01-01

    We estimated the total amounts of anthropogenic radionuclides, consisting of 90 Sr, 137 Cs, and 239+240 Pu, in the Japan Sea for the first time based on experimental data on their concentrations in seawater and seabed sediment. The radionuclide inventories in seawater and seabed sediment at each sampling site varied depending on the water depth, with total inventories for 90 Sr, 137 Cs, and 239+240 Pu in the range of 0.52-2.8 kBq m -2 , 0.64-4.1 kBq m -2 , and 27-122 Bq m -2 , respectively. Based on the relationship between the inventories and the water depths, the total amounts in the Japan Sea were estimated to be about 1.2±0.4 PBq for 90 Sr, 1.8±0.7 PBq for 137 Cs, and 69±14 TBq for 239+240 Pu, respectively; the amount ratio, 90 Sr: 137 Cs: 239+240 Pu, was 1.0:1.6:0.059. The amounts of 90 Sr and 137 Cs in the Japan Sea were in balance with those supplied from global fallout, whereas the amount of 239+240 Pu exceeded that supplied by fallout by nearly 40%. These results suggest a preferential accumulation of the plutonium isotopes. The data used in this study were obtained through a wide-area research project, named the 'Japan Sea expeditions (phase I),' covering the Japanese and Russian exclusive economic zones. (author)

  2. Estimating the total leaf area of the green dwarf coconut tree (Cocos nucifera L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sousa Elias Fernandes de

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Leaf area has significant effect on tree transpiration, and its measurement is important to many study areas. This work aimed at developing a non-destructive, practical, and empirical method to estimate the total leaf area of green dwarf coconut palms (Cocos nucifera L. in plantations located at the northern region of Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil. A mathematical model was developed to estimate total leaf area values (TLA as function of the average lengths of the last three leaf raquis (LR3, and of the number of leaves in the canopy (NL. The model has satisfactory degree of accuracy for agricultural engineering purposes.

  3. Stop of loss of cognitive performance during rehabilitation after total hip arthroplasty-prospective controlled study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brem, Matthias H; Lehrl, Siegfried; Rein, Anna K; Massute, Sylvia; Schulz-Drost, Stefan; Gelse, Kolja; Schlechtweg, Phillip M; Hennig, Friedrich F; Olk, Alexander; Jacob, Harald J; Gusinde, Johannes

    2010-01-01

    Prolonged hospitalization is known to be associated with a loss of cognitive performance. Does playing video games (VGs) developed to improve cognitive properties delay this loss or even lead to an increase in cognitive performance? We performed a 10-day longitudinal study of patients who received total hip arthroplasty. We compared 16 patients (6 male) aged 66 ± 9 years (mean ± standard deviation) who played Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training: How Old Is Your Brain? (Nintendo; Redmond, Washington) on a Nintendo DS handheld console with 16 control patients (6 male) aged 69 ± 14 years. We measured cognitive performance 1 day preoperation, as well as on days 2 and 9 postoperation. With the daily exercise of a specific VG by the play group, the patients' fluid intelligence (median intelligence quotient 99-106), working memory capacity, and rate of information processing significantly improved over the course of 7 postoperative days. The cognitive performance of the control group did not increase. However, the memory spans of both groups did not systematically change. Exercise with VGs can prevent the loss of cognitive performance during prolonged hospitalization.

  4. Circumpolar assessment of rhizosphere priming shows limited increase in carbon loss estimates for permafrost soils but large regional variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, B.; Keuper, F.; Kummu, M.; Beer, C.; Blume-Werry, G.; Fontaine, S.; Gavazov, K.; Gentsch, N.; Guggenberger, G.; Hugelius, G.; Jalava, M.; Koven, C.; Krab, E. J.; Kuhry, P.; Monteux, S.; Richter, A.; Shazhad, T.; Dorrepaal, E.

    2017-12-01

    Predictions of soil organic carbon (SOC) losses in the northern circumpolar permafrost area converge around 15% (± 3% standard error) of the initial C pool by 2100 under the RCP 8.5 warming scenario. Yet, none of these estimates consider plant-soil interactions such as the rhizosphere priming effect (RPE). While laboratory experiments have shown that the input of plant-derived compounds can stimulate SOC losses by up to 1200%, the magnitude of RPE in natural ecosystems is unknown and no methods for upscaling exist so far. We here present the first spatial and depth explicit RPE model that allows estimates of RPE on a large scale (PrimeSCale). We combine available spatial data (SOC, C/N, GPP, ALT and ecosystem type) and new ecological insights to assess the importance of the RPE at the circumpolar scale. We use a positive saturating relationship between the RPE and belowground C allocation and two ALT-dependent rooting-depth distribution functions (for tundra and boreal forest) to proportionally assign belowground C allocation and RPE to individual soil depth increments. The model permits to take into account reasonable limiting factors on additional SOC losses by RPE including interactions between spatial and/or depth variation in GPP, plant root density, SOC stocks and ALT. We estimate potential RPE-induced SOC losses at 9.7 Pg C (5 - 95% CI: 1.5 - 23.2 Pg C) by 2100 (RCP 8.5). This corresponds to an increase of the current permafrost SOC-loss estimate from 15% of the initial C pool to about 16%. If we apply an additional molar C/N threshold of 20 to account for microbial C limitation as a requirement for the RPE, SOC losses by RPE are further reduced to 6.5 Pg C (5 - 95% CI: 1.0 - 16.8 Pg C) by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Although our results show that current estimates of permafrost soil C losses are robust without taking into account the RPE, our model also highlights high-RPE risk in Siberian lowland areas and Alaska north of the Brooks Range. The small overall impact of

  5. Indicators for estimating the total apparent digestibility in horses Indicadores para estimativa da digestibilidade aparente total em equinos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Ariboni Brandi

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study to evaluate various indicators to estimate the total nutrient digestibility in horses. We used four adult mares, breed, grouped in a 4 x 4 Latin square balanced fed diets containing equal parts of hay Tifton 85 (Cynodon sp and concentrated experimental containing corn subjected to four processes: a diet containing ground corn ; flaked corn diet 2, 3 rolled corn, and 4 extruded corn. The weighting coefficient of digestibility of nutrients by the indicators was done through the bias. The accuracy and precision were determined by comparing the predicted and observed data, and the robustness of the biases by comparing with other factors studied. The chromic oxide methods showed similar values of apparent digestibility of nutrients when compared to the total collection method. We observed higher accuracy for the acid detergent lignin as compared to the other indicators tested. However, the acid detergent lignin underestimated the digestibility of nutrients when compared to the total collection. The acid detergent insoluble ash overestimated the digestibility of nutrients when compared to the total collection. The chromic oxide is presented as a better indicator for estimating the total apparent digestibility in horses due to its higher accuracy among the markers evaluated.Objetivou-se neste estudo avaliar diferentes indicadores para estimativa das digestibilidades aparente total em equinos. Foram utilizadas quatro éguas adultas, sem raça definida, agrupadas em um quadrado latino 4 x 4 balanceado, alimentadas com dietas que continham partes iguais de feno da gramínea Tifton 85 (Cynodon sp e concentrado experimental que continha milho submetido a quatro processamentos: dieta um milho triturado; dieta dois milho floculado; dieta três milho laminado e dieta quatro milho extrusado. A ponderação dos coeficientes de digestibilidade dos nutrientes pelos indicadores foi efetuada por meio do viés. A acurácia e a precis

  6. Global biodiversity loss: Exaggerated versus realistic estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John C. Briggs

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available For the past 50 years, the public has been made to feel guilty about the tragedy of human-caused biodiversity loss due to the extinction of hundreds or thousands of species every year. Numerous articles and books from the scientific and popular press and publicity on the internet have contributed to a propaganda wave about our grievous loss and the beginning of a sixth mass extinction. However, within the past few years, questions have arisen about the validity of the data which led to the doom scenario. Here I show that, for the past 500 years, terrestrial animals (insects and vertebrates have been losing less than two species per year due to human causes. The majority of the extinctions have occurred on oceanic islands with little effect on continental ecology. In the marine environment, losses have also been very low. At the same time, speciation has continued to occur and biodiversity gain by this means may have equaled or even surpassed the losses. While species loss is not, so far, a global conservation problem, ongoing population declines within thousands of species that are at risk on land and in the sea constitute an extinction debt that will be paid unless those species can be rescued.

  7. Estimating adolescent risk for hearing loss based on data from a large school-based survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vogel, L.; Verschuure, H.; Ploeg, C.P.B. van der; Brug, J.; Raat, H.

    2010-01-01

    Objectives. We estimated whether and to what extent a group of adolescents were at risk of developing permanent hearing loss as a result of voluntary exposure to high-volume music, and we assessed whether such exposure was associated with hearing-related symptoms. Methods. In 2007, 1512 adolescents

  8. Estimating adolescent risk for hearing loss based on data from a large school-based survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I. Vogel (Ineke); H. Verschuure (Hans); C.P.B. van der Ploeg (Catharina); J. Brug (Hans); H. Raat (Hein)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractObjectives. We estimated whether and to what extent a group of adolescents were at risk of developing permanent hearing loss as a result of voluntary exposure to high-volume music, and we assessed whether such exposure was associated with hearing-related symptoms. Methods. In 2007, 1512

  9. Estimation and comparison of intra operative blood loss in patients with and without venous thromboembolism prophylaxis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahsin, S.; Bashir, A.; Faiz, S.A.; Tahir, J.; Ijaz, A.

    2014-01-01

    To estimate and compare intraoperative blood loss in surgical patients with and without deep vein thrombosis (DVT) prophylaxis using unfractionated heparin Study Design: Clinical Trial Place and Duration: Surgery Department of Fauji Foundation Hospital and Physiology Department Foundation University Medical College from October 2011 to August 2012 Patients and Methodology: Patients were selected by non probability purposive sampling. Patients fulfilling the inclusion criteria were divided into 2 groups 25 each on the basis of order of presentation at Fauji Foundation Hospital until cohort numbers were reached. Group I received no heparin whereas group II received heparin. Written informed consent was taken from the patient after explaining the procedure of the study. Coagulation profile was done for both groups before the planned surgery. Heparin in a dose of 5000 units was administered subcutaneously to group II on the morning of the planned surgery and it was stopped 24 hours post operatively. Blood loss was estimated in both groups by weighing cotton swabs pre and post operatively. Data was analyzed by SPSS version 17. Results: Demographic data and surgical procedure time between the two groups did not differ. Blood loss between the two groups did not show any statistically significant difference. Conclusion: DVT prophylaxis using unfractionated heparin did not lead to any significant overt blood loss when compared with those without it. (author)

  10. Can a mathematical model predict an individual's trait-like response to both total and partial sleep loss?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramakrishnan, Sridhar; Lu, Wei; Laxminarayan, Srinivas; Wesensten, Nancy J; Rupp, Tracy L; Balkin, Thomas J; Reifman, Jaques

    2015-06-01

    Humans display a trait-like response to sleep loss. However, it is not known whether this trait-like response can be captured by a mathematical model from only one sleep-loss condition to facilitate neurobehavioural performance prediction of the same individual during a different sleep-loss condition. In this paper, we investigated the extent to which the recently developed unified mathematical model of performance (UMP) captured such trait-like features for different sleep-loss conditions. We used the UMP to develop two sets of individual-specific models for 15 healthy adults who underwent two different sleep-loss challenges (order counterbalanced; separated by 2-4 weeks): (i) 64 h of total sleep deprivation (TSD) and (ii) chronic sleep restriction (CSR) of 7 days of 3 h nightly time in bed. We then quantified the extent to which models developed using psychomotor vigilance task data under TSD predicted performance data under CSR, and vice versa. The results showed that the models customized to an individual under one sleep-loss condition accurately predicted performance of the same individual under the other condition, yielding, on average, up to 50% improvement over non-individualized, group-average model predictions. This finding supports the notion that the UMP captures an individual's trait-like response to different sleep-loss conditions. © 2014 European Sleep Research Society.

  11. Estimation of the iron loss in deep-sea permanent magnet motors considering seawater compressive stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yongxiang; Wei, Yanyu; Zou, Jibin; Li, Jianjun; Qi, Wenjuan; Li, Yong

    2014-01-01

    Deep-sea permanent magnet motor equipped with fluid compensated pressure-tolerant system is compressed by the high pressure fluid both outside and inside. The induced stress distribution in stator core is significantly different from that in land type motor. Its effect on the magnetic properties of stator core is important for deep-sea motor designers but seldom reported. In this paper, the stress distribution in stator core, regarding the seawater compressive stress, is calculated by 2D finite element method (FEM). The effect of compressive stress on magnetic properties of electrical steel sheet, that is, permeability, BH curves, and BW curves, is also measured. Then, based on the measured magnetic properties and calculated stress distribution, the stator iron loss is estimated by stress-electromagnetics-coupling FEM. At last the estimation is verified by experiment. Both the calculated and measured results show that stator iron loss increases obviously with the seawater compressive stress.

  12. Estimation of the Iron Loss in Deep-Sea Permanent Magnet Motors considering Seawater Compressive Stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongxiang Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Deep-sea permanent magnet motor equipped with fluid compensated pressure-tolerant system is compressed by the high pressure fluid both outside and inside. The induced stress distribution in stator core is significantly different from that in land type motor. Its effect on the magnetic properties of stator core is important for deep-sea motor designers but seldom reported. In this paper, the stress distribution in stator core, regarding the seawater compressive stress, is calculated by 2D finite element method (FEM. The effect of compressive stress on magnetic properties of electrical steel sheet, that is, permeability, BH curves, and BW curves, is also measured. Then, based on the measured magnetic properties and calculated stress distribution, the stator iron loss is estimated by stress-electromagnetics-coupling FEM. At last the estimation is verified by experiment. Both the calculated and measured results show that stator iron loss increases obviously with the seawater compressive stress.

  13. Total decay heat estimates in a proto-type fast reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sridharan, M.S.

    2003-01-01

    Full text: In this paper, total decay heat values generated in a proto-type fast reactor are estimated. These values are compared with those of certain fast reactors. Simple analytical fits are also obtained for these values which can serve as a handy and convenient tool in engineering design studies. These decay heat values taken as their ratio to the nominal operating power are, in general, applicable to any typical plutonium based fast reactor and are useful inputs to the design of decay-heat removal systems

  14. Method for estimating off-axis pulse tube losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, T.; Mulcahey, T. I.; Taylor, R. P.; Spoor, P. S.; Conrad, T. J.; Ghiaasiaan, S. M.

    2017-12-01

    Some Stirling-type pulse tube cryocoolers (PTCs) exhibit sensitivity to gravitational orientation and often exhibit significant cooling performance losses unless situated with the cold end pointing downward. Prior investigations have indicated that some coolers exhibit sensitivity while others do not; however, a reliable method of predicting the level of sensitivity during the design process has not been developed. In this study, we present a relationship that estimates an upper limit to gravitationally induced losses as a function of the dimensionless pulse tube convection number (NPTC) that can be used to ensure that a PTC would remain functional at adverse static tilt conditions. The empirical relationship is based on experimental data as well as experimentally validated 3-D computational fluid dynamics simulations that examine the effects of frequency, mass flow rate, pressure ratio, mass-pressure phase difference, hot and cold end temperatures, and static tilt angle. The validation of the computational model is based on experimental data collected from six commercial pulse tube cryocoolers. The simulation results are obtained from component-level models of the pulse tube and heat exchangers. Parameter ranges covered in component level simulations are 0-180° for tilt angle, 4-8 for length to diameter ratios, 4-80 K cold tip temperatures, -30° to +30° for mass flow to pressure phase angles, and 25-60 Hz operating frequencies. Simulation results and experimental data are aggregated to yield the relationship between inclined PTC performance and pulse tube convection numbers. The results indicate that the pulse tube convection number can be used as an order of magnitude indicator of the orientation sensitivity, but CFD simulations should be used to calculate the change in energy flow more accurately.

  15. Quantitative assessment of gastrointestinal blood loss with anti-inflammatory drugs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahanukar, S.A.; Sheth, U.K.; Bhiwankar, N.T.; Ramnath, S.R.; Mehta, B.C.; Katoch, D.S.

    1980-01-01

    A comparative study of gastrointestinal blood loss caused by aspirin, flurbiprofen and RH-8 was carried out in 24 normal volunteers in whom erythrocytes were labelled with radioactive chromium i.e. Cr 51 . Blood loss was estimated by counting radio-activity in vitro taking total amount of faeces. The method used was independent of distribution of radio-activity in the faeces, which does not require homogenization. Significant increase in blood loss occurred with aspirin, flurbiprofen and RH-8; only the difference between RH-8 and flurbiprofen group is significant. (auth.)

  16. Study on the social economic estimation of Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sagara, Aya; Fujimoto, Noboru; Morita, Koji; Fukuda, Kenji

    2000-01-01

    In order to estimate the external economic effect for the risk of the nuclear power plants, the document research has been carried out, which mainly deals with the economic influence of the Chernobyl accident that occurred on the 26th of April 1986. As a result, the direct and indirect total economic loss between 1986 and 1995 is about $ 80 billion in Belarus, $ 115 billion in Ukraine and 1.15 trillion in Russia. This value, however, is considered as an overestimation, since the environmental contamination with radioactive material and thyroid cancer in Russia is very much the same as in Belarus and Ukraine. Also, the total economic loss is about a billion dollars in west European countries. The total economic loss for the Chernobyl accident is estimated more than about $ 300 billion. On the other hand, the chance occurrence of this kind of major accident of the nuclear power plant is very small in terms of probabilities, and the product of economic loss and frequency is smaller than the cost benefit for the measure of global warming and the energy security in Japan. This kind of problem should be treated as a social problem and study on various external economic effect is necessary. (author)

  17. A GIS based estimation of loss of particulate nitrogen and phosphorus in typical drainage area of Pearl River Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaonan; Wu, Zhifeng; Cheng, Jiong; Liu, Ping

    2008-10-01

    The output of nitrogen and phosphorus from agricultural activities is the main source for water eutrophication. The fully developed agriculture in vegetables, fruits and flowers in Pearl River Delta gives rise to excessive use of chemical matter such as fertilizer and pesticide and thus bring about the serious water pollution because of the loss of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from the farmland in the region. Based on Geographic Information System (GIS) and soil pollution data, Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and source type method are used to estimate the loads of particulate N and P from the soil of different land use types in the drainage area of Liuxi River in Guangzhou, China. So the key regions those the NPS pollution occurred can be confirmed and the technical support for the pollution control target and the capital flow concentration can be provided by the results. The study shows that, (1) The total loss of particulate N and P in the drainage area is 582.49 t/a and 424.74 t/a respectively. Among them the loss of particulate N from paddy soil occupies 40.02% and that of forest 6.31%, while the loss of particulate P from the soil of dry-land accounts for 28.75% and that of paddy soil 26.31%. (2) There are significantly different losses of particulate N and P per unit area from the soils of different source land use types in the drainage area. The losses of particulate N and P per unit area are both the highest from the soil of dry-land, which is 7.72 kg/hm2 and 9.50 kg/hm2 respectively, followed by those of orchard, which is 7.20 kg/hm2 and 6.56 kg/hm2 respectively. The causes are excessive use of chemical matter, unreasonable cultivation pattern, and the soil erosion of different land use. (3) The excessive N and P come from the loss of particulate N and P from the fertilization in agricultural production, and they are the main source of the pollutants in Liuxi River water.

  18. Energy losses in switches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, T.H.; Seamen, J.F.; Jobe, D.O.

    1993-01-01

    The authors experiments show energy losses between 2 and 10 times that of the resistive time predictions. The experiments used hydrogen, helium, air, nitrogen, SF 6 polyethylene, and water for the switching dielectric. Previously underestimated switch losses have caused over predicting the accelerator outputs. Accurate estimation of these losses is now necessary for new high-efficiency pulsed power devices where the switching losses constitute the major portion of the total energy loss. They found that the switch energy losses scale as (V peak I peak ) 1.1846 . When using this scaling, the energy losses in any of the tested dielectrics are almost the same. This relationship is valid for several orders of magnitude and suggested a theoretical basis for these results. Currents up to .65 MA, with voltages to 3 MV were applied to various gaps during these experiments. The authors data and the developed theory indicates that the switch power loss continues for a much longer time than the resistive time, with peak power loss generally occurring at peak current in a ranging discharge instead of the early current time. All of the experiments were circuit code modeled after developing a new switch loss version based on the theory. The circuit code predicts switch energy loss and peak currents as a function of time. During analysis of the data they noticed slight constant offsets between the theory and data that depended on the dielectric. They modified the plasma conductivity for each tested dielectric to lessen this offset

  19. Estimated carbon emission from recent rapid forest loss in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, A.; Zeng, Z.; Peng, L.; Fei, S.

    2017-12-01

    Driven by agricultural expansion, industrial logging, oil palm and rubber plantations, and urbanization, Southeast Asia (SEA) is one of the hotspots for tropical deforestation over recent decades. The extent of the tropical SEA deforestation rate, as well as its impacts on carbon cycle and biodiversity, however, is still highly uncertain. In relevant work using high resolution global maps of the 21st-century forest cover, we find tropical SEA lost 22 million hectares, or 9%, of forest area during 2000-2014, a much higher deforestation rate than previously reported. Here we further conduct research investigating carbon emissions from tropical deforestation in SEA with satellite data of forest cover, a global tropical forest biomass map, and Earth system models. Preliminary results suggest that deforestation in SEA causes about 2.8 Tg C emissions to the atmosphere during the same period, also higher than that of previous studies. Meanwhile, carbon emission from deforestation shows high variations across different countries, topography and between the insular and maritime SEA. Indonesia and Malaysia tops in both total carbon loss and loss from per unit land area. Our results indicates that previous studies have underestimated the carbon loss due to deforestation in SEA. And until further effective forest conservation measures can be adopted, tropical SEA will continue playing a role of atmospheric carbon source in the coming decades.

  20. Effect of feeding level on ileal and total tract digestibility of nutrients and energy from soybean meal-based diets for piglets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goerke, M; Mosenthin, R; Jezierny, D; Sauer, N; Piepho, H-P; Messerschmidt, U; Eklund, M

    2014-12-01

    A total of 36 piglets with an initial body weight (BW) of 5.6 ± 0.7 kg, fitted with simple T-cannulas at the distal ileum, were used to evaluate the effect of three graded feeding levels (50, 75 or 100 g/kg BW(0.75) day) on apparent ileal digestibility (AID) and total tract digestibility (ATTD) of dry matter (DM), nitrogen (N) and energy, and on ATTD of organic matter (OM), ether extracts (EE), neutral detergent fibre (NDF), acid detergent fibre (ADF) and digestible (DE), metabolisable (ME) and net energy (NE) content in soybean meal (SBM)-casein-cornstarch-based diets. The AID of DM, N and energy and ATTD of NDF, ADF and EE in the diets were not affected (p > 0.05) by the feed intake (FI) level. There was a small decrease in ATTD of DM, N (CP), OM, ash and energy, and in DE, ME and NE content in the diets (p digestibility values, and for estimating urinary endogenous N loss. High variability in estimates of ileal endogenous N loss and total tract endogenous losses of N, EE and ash reflects great variation in individual endogenous losses between animals. Estimation of true total tract digestibility of N, EE and ash by regression analysis was affected by their decrease in ATTD with increasing FI level, as estimates for true digestibility were lower compared to their apparent values. The present results suggest that FI level can affect both apparent and true total tract nutrient digestibility in piglets. Journal of Animal Physiology and Animal Nutrition © 2014 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  1. Effects of total flavonoids from Drynariae Rhizoma prevent bone loss in vivo and in vitro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuang-hong Song

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Estrogen deficiency is one of the major causes of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women. Drynariae Rhizoma is a widely used traditional Chinese medicine for the treatment of bone diseases. In this study, we investigated the therapeutic effects of the total Drynariae Rhizoma flavonoids (DRTF on estrogen deficiency-induced bone loss using an ovariectomized rat model and osteoblast-like MC3T3-E1 cells. Our results indicated that DRTF produced osteo-protective effects on the ovariectomized rats in terms of bone loss reduction, including decreased levels of bone turnover markers, enhanced biomechanical femur strength and trabecular bone microarchitecture deterioration prevention. In vitro experiments revealed that the actions of DRTF on regulating osteoblastic activities were mediated by the estrogen receptor (ER dependent pathway. Our data also demonstrated that DRTF inhibited osteoclastogenesis via up-regulating osteoprotegrin (OPG, as well as down-regulating receptor activator of NF–κB ligand (RANKL expression. In conclusion, this study indicated that DRTF treatment effectively suppressed bone mass loss in an ovariectomized rat model, and in vitro evidence suggested that the effects were exerted through actions on both osteoblasts and osteoclasts. Keywords: Osteoporosis, Osteoblast, Osteoclast, Ovariectomy, Drynariae Rhizoma

  2. Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

    1990-01-01

    The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous...... abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...

  3. A quantitative model for estimating mean annual soil loss in cultivated land using 137Cs measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Hao; Zhao Qiguo; Du Mingyuan; Minami, Katsuyuki; Hatta, Tamao

    2000-01-01

    The radioisotope 137 Cs has been widely used to determine rates of cultivated soil loss, Many calibration relationships (including both empirical relationships and theoretical models) have been employed to estimate erosion rates from the amount of 137 Cs lost from the cultivated soil profile. However, there are important limitations which restrict the reliability of these models, which consider only the uniform distribution of 137 Cs in the plough layer and the depth. As a result, erosion rates they may be overestimated or underestimated. This article presents a quantitative model for the relation the amount of 137 Cs lost from the cultivate soil profile and the rate of soil erosion. According to a mass balance model, during the construction of this model we considered the following parameters: the remaining fraction of the surface enrichment layer (F R ), the thickness of the surface enrichment layer (H s ), the depth of the plough layer (H p ), input fraction of the total 137 Cs fallout deposition during a given year t (F t ), radioactive decay of 137 Cs (k), and sampling year (t). The simulation results showed that the amounts of erosion rates estimated using this model were very sensitive to changes in the values of the parameters F R , H s , and H p . We also observed that the relationship between the rate of soil loss and 137 Cs depletion is neither linear nor logarithmic, and is very complex. Although the model is an improvement over existing approaches to derive calibration relationships for cultivated soil, it requires empirical information on local soil properties and the behavior of 137 Cs in the soil profile. There is clearly still a need for more precise information on the latter aspect and, in particular, on the retention of 137 Cs fallout in the top few millimeters of the soil profile and on the enrichment and depletion effects associated with soil redistribution (i.e. for determining accurate values of F R and H s ). (author)

  4. Gross margin losses due to Salmonella Dublin infection in Danish dairy cattle herds estimated by simulation modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Torben Dahl; Kudahl, Anne Braad; Østergaard, S.

    2013-01-01

    and dynamic simulation model. The model incorporated six age groups (neonatal, pre-weaned calves, weaned calves, growing heifers, breeding heifers and cows) and five infection stages (susceptible, acutely infected, carrier, super shedder and resistant). The effects of introducing one S. Dublin infectious......Salmonella Dublin affects production and animal health in cattle herds. The objective of this study was to quantify the gross margin (GM) losses following introduction and spread of S. Dublin within dairy herds. The GM losses were estimated using an age-structured stochastic, mechanistic...... with poorer management and herd size, e.g. average annual GM losses were estimated to 49 euros per stall for the first year after infection, and to 8 euros per stall annually averaged over the 10 years after herd infection for a 200 cow stall herd with very good management. In contrast, a 200 cow stall herd...

  5. Stereological estimation of total cell numbers in the young human utricular macula

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Severinsen, Stig Avall; Sørensen, Mads Sølvsten; Kirkegaard, Mette

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Conclusion: There is no change in the total cell population and hair cell:supporting cell ratio in the human utricular macula from gestational week 16 and onwards, whereas the lower hair cell:supporting cell ratio and lower total number of cells in the youngest specimens indicate...... that the utricle is still differentiating and adding new cells at the 10th to 12th gestational week. Objectives: Archival temporal bones were investigated to quantify cell numbers in the utricular macula in fetuses and children. Methods: The age of the subjects ranged from gestational week 10 to 15 years....... The optical fractionator was used to estimate the total number of cells in the utricular macula. Results: The total cell number was found to be 143 000 in subjects older than gestational week 16. The number of hair cells and supporting cells did not change between the 16th gestational week and 15 years...

  6. Spatial Data Mining for Estimating Cover Management Factor of Universal Soil Loss Equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, F.; Lin, T. C.; Chiang, S. H.; Chen, W. W.

    2016-12-01

    Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) is a widely used mathematical model that describes long-term soil erosion processes. Among the six different soil erosion risk factors of USLE, the cover-management factor (C-factor) is related to land-cover/land-use. The value of C-factor ranges from 0.001 to 1, so it alone might cause a thousandfold difference in a soil erosion analysis using USLE. The traditional methods for the estimation of USLE C-factor include in situ experiments, soil physical parameter models, USLE look-up tables with land use maps, and regression models between vegetation indices and C-factors. However, these methods are either difficult or too expensive to implement in large areas. In addition, the values of C-factor obtained using these methods can not be updated frequently, either. To address this issue, this research developed a spatial data mining approach to estimate the values of C-factor with assorted spatial datasets for a multi-temporal (2004 to 2008) annual soil loss analysis of a reservoir watershed in northern Taiwan. The idea is to establish the relationship between the USLE C-factor and spatial data consisting of vegetation indices and texture features extracted from satellite images, soil and geology attributes, digital elevation model, road and river distribution etc. A decision tree classifier was used to rank influential conditional attributes in the preliminary data mining. Then, factor simplification and separation were considered to optimize the model and the random forest classifier was used to analyze 9 simplified factor groups. Experimental results indicate that the overall accuracy of the data mining model is about 79% with a kappa value of 0.76. The estimated soil erosion amounts in 2004-2008 according to the data mining results are about 50.39 - 74.57 ton/ha-year after applying the sediment delivery ratio and correction coefficient. Comparing with estimations calculated with C-factors from look-up tables, the soil erosion

  7. Near-real-time Estimation and Forecast of Total Precipitable Water in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartholy, J.; Kern, A.; Barcza, Z.; Pongracz, R.; Ihasz, I.; Kovacs, R.; Ferencz, C.

    2013-12-01

    Information about the amount and spatial distribution of atmospheric water vapor (or total precipitable water) is essential for understanding weather and the environment including the greenhouse effect, the climate system with its feedbacks and the hydrological cycle. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models need accurate estimations of water vapor content to provide realistic forecasts including representation of clouds and precipitation. In the present study we introduce our research activity for the estimation and forecast of atmospheric water vapor in Central Europe using both observations and models. The Eötvös Loránd University (Hungary) operates a polar orbiting satellite receiving station in Budapest since 2002. This station receives Earth observation data from polar orbiting satellites including MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Direct Broadcast (DB) data stream from satellites Terra and Aqua. The received DB MODIS data are automatically processed using freely distributed software packages. Using the IMAPP Level2 software total precipitable water is calculated operationally using two different methods. Quality of the TPW estimations is a crucial question for further application of the results, thus validation of the remotely sensed total precipitable water fields is presented using radiosonde data. In a current research project in Hungary we aim to compare different estimations of atmospheric water vapor content. Within the frame of the project we use a NWP model (DBCRAS; Direct Broadcast CIMSS Regional Assimilation System numerical weather prediction software developed by the University of Wisconsin, Madison) to forecast TPW. DBCRAS uses near real time Level2 products from the MODIS data processing chain. From the wide range of the derived Level2 products the MODIS TPW parameter found within the so-called mod07 results (Atmospheric Profiles Product) and the cloud top pressure and cloud effective emissivity parameters from the so

  8. Inadmissibility of Usual and Mixed Estimators of Two Ordered Gamma Scale Parameters Under Reflected Gamma Loss Function

    OpenAIRE

    Z. Meghnatisi; N. Nematollahi

    2009-01-01

    Let Xi1, · · · , Xini be a random sample from a gamma distribution with known shape parameter νi > 0 and unknown scale parameter βi > 0, i = 1, 2, satisfying 0 < β1 6 β2. We consider the class of mixed estimators for estimation of β1 and β2 under reflected gamma loss function. It has been shown that the minimum risk equivariant estimator of βi, i = 1, 2, which is admissible when no information on the ordering of parameters are given, is inadmissible and dominated by a cla...

  9. Estimates of the Tempo-adjusted Total Fertility Rate in Western and Eastern Germany, 1955-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Luy

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In this article we present estimates of the tempo-adjusted total fertility rate in Western and Eastern Germany from 1955 to 2008. Tempo adjustment of the total fertility rate (TFR requires data on the annual number of births by parity and age of the mother. Since official statistics do not provide such data for West Germany as well as Eastern Germany from 1990 on we used alternative data sources which include these specific characteristics. The combined picture of conventional TFR and tempo-adjusted TFR* provides interesting information about the trends in period fertility in Western and Eastern Germany, above all with regard to the differences between the two regions and the enormous extent of tempo effects in Eastern Germany during the 1990s. Compared to corresponding data for populations from other countries, our estimates of the tempo-adjusted TFR* for Eastern and Western Germany show plausible trends. Nevertheless, it is important to note that the estimates of the tempo-adjusted total fertility rate presented in this paper should not be seen as being on the level of or equivalent to official statistics since they are based on different kinds of data with different degrees of quality.

  10. DXA, bioelectrical impedance, ultrasonography and biometry for the estimation of fat and lean mass in cats during weight loss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borges Naida C

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Few equations have been developed in veterinary medicine compared to human medicine to predict body composition. The present study was done to evaluate the influence of weight loss on biometry (BIO, bioimpedance analysis (BIA and ultrasonography (US in cats, proposing equations to estimate fat (FM and lean (LM body mass, as compared to dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA as the referenced method. For this were used 16 gonadectomized obese cats (8 males and 8 females in a weight loss program. DXA, BIO, BIA and US were performed in the obese state (T0; obese animals, after 10% of weight loss (T1 and after 20% of weight loss (T2. Stepwise regression was used to analyze the relationship between the dependent variables (FM, LM determined by DXA and the independent variables obtained by BIO, BIA and US. The better models chosen were evaluated by a simple regression analysis and means predicted vs. determined by DXA were compared to verify the accuracy of the equations. Results The independent variables determined by BIO, BIA and US that best correlated (p r2, 19 equations were selected (12 for FM, 7 for LM; however, only 7 equations accurately predicted FM and one LM of cats. Conclusions The equations with two variables are better to use because they are effective and will be an alternative method to estimate body composition in the clinical routine. For estimated lean mass the equations using body weight associated with biometrics measures can be proposed. For estimated fat mass the equations using body weight associated with bioimpedance analysis can be proposed.

  11. Estimation of Total Yearly CO2 Emissions by Wildfires in Mexico during the Period 1999–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flor Bautista Vicente

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The phenomenon of wildfires became a global environmental problem which demands estimations of their CO2 emissions. Wildfires have deteriorated the air quality increasingly. Using available information on documented wildfires and a data set of satellite detected hot spots, total yearly emissions of CO2 in Mexico were estimated for the period 1999–2010. A map of the main vegetation groups was used to calculate total areas for every vegetation type. The yearly number of hot spots per vegetation type was calculated. Estimates of emitted CO2 in a wildfire were then accomplished by considering parameters such as: forest fuel load, vegetation type, burning efficiency, and mean burned area. The number of wildfires and total affected areas showed an annual variability. The yearly mean of affected area by a single wildfire varied between 0.2 and 0.3 km2. The total affected area during the period 1999 to 2010 was 86800 km2 which corresponds to 4.3% of the Mexican territory. Total CO2 emissions were approximately 112 Tg. The most affected vegetation types were forest and rainforest.

  12. Global analysis of approaches for deriving total water storage changes from GRACE satellites and implications for groundwater storage change estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, D.; Scanlon, B. R.; Longuevergne, L.; Chen, X.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing interest in use of GRACE satellites and a variety of new products to monitor changes in total water storage (TWS) underscores the need to assess the reliability of output from different products. The objective of this study was to assess skills and uncertainties of different approaches for processing GRACE data to restore signal losses caused by spatial filtering based on analysis of 1°×1° grid scale data and basin scale data in 60 river basins globally. Results indicate that scaling factors from six land surface models (LSMs), including four models from GLDAS-1 (Noah 2.7, Mosaic, VIC, and CLM 2.0), CLM 4.0, and WGHM, are similar over most humid, sub-humid, and high-latitude regions but can differ by up to 100% over arid and semi-arid basins and areas with intensive irrigation. Large differences in TWS anomalies from three processing approaches (scaling factor, additive, and multiplicative corrections) were found in arid and semi-arid regions, areas with intensive irrigation, and relatively small basins (e.g., ≤ 200,000 km2). Furthermore, TWS anomaly products from gridded data with CLM4.0 scaling factors and the additive correction approach more closely agree with WGHM output than the multiplicative correction approach. Estimation of groundwater storage changes using GRACE satellites requires caution in selecting an appropriate approach for restoring TWS changes. A priori ground-based data used in forward modeling can provide a powerful tool for explaining the distribution of signal gains or losses caused by low-pass filtering in specific regions of interest and should be very useful for more reliable estimation of groundwater storage changes using GRACE satellites.

  13. Inadmissibility of Usual and Mixed Estimators of Two Ordered Gamma Scale Parameters Under Reflected Gamma Loss Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Meghnatisi

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Let Xi1, · · · , Xini be a random sample from a gamma distribution with known shape parameter νi > 0 and unknown scale parameter βi > 0, i = 1, 2, satisfying 0 < β1 6 β2. We consider the class of mixed estimators for estimation of β1 and β2 under reflected gamma loss function. It has been shown that the minimum risk equivariant estimator of βi, i = 1, 2, which is admissible when no information on the ordering of parameters are given, is inadmissible and dominated by a class of mixed estimators when it is known that the parameters are ordered. Also, the inadmissible estimators in the class of mixed estimators are derived. Finally the results are extended to some subclass of exponential family

  14. Validating the use of 137Cs and 210Pbex measurements to estimate rates of soil loss from cultivated land in southern Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Porto, Paolo; Walling, Des E.

    2012-01-01

    Soil erosion represents an important threat to the long-term sustainability of agriculture and forestry in many areas of the world, including southern Italy. Numerous models and prediction procedures have been developed to estimate rates of soil loss and soil redistribution, based on the local topography, hydrometeorology, soil type and land management. However, there remains an important need for empirical measurements to provide a basis for validating and calibrating such models and prediction procedures as well as to support specific investigations and experiments. In this context, erosion plots provide useful information on gross rates of soil loss, but are unable to document the efficiency of the onward transfer of the eroded sediment within a field and towards the stream system, and thus net rates of soil loss from larger areas. The use of environmental radionuclides, particularly caesium-137 ( 137 Cs) and excess lead-210 ( 210 Pb ex ), as a means of estimating rates of soil erosion and deposition has attracted increasing attention in recent years and the approach has now been recognised as possessing several important advantages. In order to provide further confirmation of the validity of the estimates of longer-term erosion and soil redistribution rates provided by 137 Cs and 210 Pb ex measurements, there is a need for studies aimed explicitly at validating the results obtained. In this context, the authors directed attention to the potential offered by a set of small erosion plots located near Reggio Calabria in southern Italy, for validating estimates of soil loss provided by 137 Cs and 210 Pb ex measurements. A preliminary assessment suggested that, notwithstanding the limitations and constraints involved, a worthwhile investigation aimed at validating the use of 137 Cs and 210 Pb ex measurements to estimate rates of soil loss from cultivated land could be undertaken. The results demonstrate a close consistency between the measured rates of soil loss and

  15. Fast state estimation subject to random data loss in discrete-time nonlinear stochastic systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahdi Alavi, S. M.; Saif, Mehrdad

    2013-12-01

    This paper focuses on the design of the standard observer in discrete-time nonlinear stochastic systems subject to random data loss. By the assumption that the system response is incrementally bounded, two sufficient conditions are subsequently derived that guarantee exponential mean-square stability and fast convergence of the estimation error for the problem at hand. An efficient algorithm is also presented to obtain the observer gain. Finally, the proposed methodology is employed for monitoring the Continuous Stirred Tank Reactor (CSTR) via a wireless communication network. The effectiveness of the designed observer is extensively assessed by using an experimental tested-bed that has been fabricated for performance evaluation of the over wireless-network estimation techniques under realistic radio channel conditions.

  16. Synergistic effects of intravenous and intra-articular tranexamic acid on reducing hemoglobin loss in revision total knee arthroplasty: a prospective, randomized, controlled study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Xiangwei; Wang, Jiaxing; Wang, Qiaojie; Zhang, Xianlong

    2018-04-01

    Tranexamic acid decreases blood loss in primary total knee arthroplasty, and no related prospective randomized clinical trials have been conducted to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of tranexamic acid in revision total knee arthroplasty. Thus, we conducted this work to evaluate the synergistic effects of intravenous plus intra-articular tranexamic acid on reducing hemoglobin loss compared with intra-articular tranexamic acid alone in revision total knee arthroplasty. This prospective, controlled study randomized 96 patients undergoing revision total knee arthroplasty into two groups: an intravenous plus intra-articular tranexamic acid group (48 patients who received 20 mg/kg intravenous tranexamic acid and 3.0 g intra-articular tranexamic acid); and an intra-articular tranexamic acid alone group (48 patients who received the same intravenous volume of normal saline and 3.0 g intra-articular tranexamic acid). The primary outcome was hemoglobin loss. Secondary outcomes included the volume of drain output, the percentage of patients who received transfusions, the number of units transfused, and thromboembolic events. The baseline data, preoperative hemoglobin, and tourniquet time were similar in both groups. There was significantly less hemoglobin loss in the intravenous plus intra-articular tranexamic acid group compared with the intra-articular tranexamic acid alone group (2.7 ± 0.6 g/dL and 3.7 ± 0.7 g/dL; p tranexamic acid alone group, the intravenous plus intra-articular tranexamic acid group also had significantly less drain output, fewer patients who received transfusions, and fewer units transfused (all p tranexamic acid alone, combined intravenous plus intra-articular tranexamic acid significantly reduced hemoglobin loss and the need for transfusion without an apparent increase in thromboembolic events in patients who underwent revision total knee arthroplasty. © 2018 AABB.

  17. A new method for estimating the probable maximum hail loss of a building portfolio based on hailfall intensity determined by radar measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aller, D.; Hohl, R.; Mair, F.; Schiesser, H.-H.

    2003-04-01

    Extreme hailfall can cause massive damage to building structures. For the insurance and reinsurance industry it is essential to estimate the probable maximum hail loss of their portfolio. The probable maximum loss (PML) is usually defined with a return period of 1 in 250 years. Statistical extrapolation has a number of critical points, as historical hail loss data are usually only available from some events while insurance portfolios change over the years. At the moment, footprints are derived from historical hail damage data. These footprints (mean damage patterns) are then moved over a portfolio of interest to create scenario losses. However, damage patterns of past events are based on the specific portfolio that was damaged during that event and can be considerably different from the current spread of risks. A new method for estimating the probable maximum hail loss to a building portfolio is presented. It is shown that footprints derived from historical damages are different to footprints of hail kinetic energy calculated from radar reflectivity measurements. Based on the relationship between radar-derived hail kinetic energy and hail damage to buildings, scenario losses can be calculated. A systematic motion of the hail kinetic energy footprints over the underlying portfolio creates a loss set. It is difficult to estimate the return period of losses calculated with footprints derived from historical damages being moved around. To determine the return periods of the hail kinetic energy footprints over Switzerland, 15 years of radar measurements and 53 years of agricultural hail losses are available. Based on these data, return periods of several types of hailstorms were derived for different regions in Switzerland. The loss set is combined with the return periods of the event set to obtain an exceeding frequency curve, which can be used to derive the PML.

  18. Determination of tropical deforestation rates and related carbon losses from 1990 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achard, Frédéric; Beuchle, René; Mayaux, Philippe; Stibig, Hans-Jürgen; Bodart, Catherine; Brink, Andreas; Carboni, Silvia; Desclée, Baudouin; Donnay, François; Eva, Hugh D; Lupi, Andrea; Raši, Rastislav; Seliger, Roman; Simonetti, Dario

    2014-08-01

    We estimate changes in forest cover (deforestation and forest regrowth) in the tropics for the two last decades (1990-2000 and 2000-2010) based on a sample of 4000 units of 10 ×10 km size. Forest cover is interpreted from satellite imagery at 30 × 30 m resolution. Forest cover changes are then combined with pan-tropical biomass maps to estimate carbon losses. We show that there was a gross loss of tropical forests of 8.0 million ha yr(-1) in the 1990s and 7.6 million ha yr(-1) in the 2000s (0.49% annual rate), with no statistically significant difference. Humid forests account for 64% of the total forest cover in 2010 and 54% of the net forest loss during second study decade. Losses of forest cover and Other Wooded Land (OWL) cover result in estimates of carbon losses which are similar for 1990s and 2000s at 887 MtC yr(-1) (range: 646-1238) and 880 MtC yr(-1) (range: 602-1237) respectively, with humid regions contributing two-thirds. The estimates of forest area changes have small statistical standard errors due to large sample size. We also reduce uncertainties of previous estimates of carbon losses and removals. Our estimates of forest area change are significantly lower as compared to national survey data. We reconcile recent low estimates of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation for early 2000s and show that carbon loss rates did not change between the two last decades. Carbon losses from deforestation represent circa 10% of Carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production during the last decade (2000-2010). Our estimates of annual removals of carbon from forest regrowth at 115 MtC yr(-1) (range: 61-168) and 97 MtC yr(-1) (53-141) for the 1990s and 2000s respectively are five to fifteen times lower than earlier published estimates. © The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Segmental acetabular rim defects, bone loss, oversizing, and press fit cup in total hip arthroplasty evaluated with a probabilistic finite element analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amirouche, Farid; Solitro, Giovanni F; Walia, Amit; Gonzalez, Mark; Bobko, Aimee

    2017-08-01

    Management of segmental rim defects and bone mineral density (BMD) loss in the elderly prior to total hip replacement is unclear within classification systems for acetabular bone loss. In this study, our objectives were (1) to understand how a reduction in BMD in the elderly affects the oversizing of a press-fit cup for primary fixation and (2) to evaluate whether the location of the segmental defect affected cup fixation. A finite element (FE) model was used to simulate and evaluate cup insertion and fixation in the context of segmental rim defects. We focused on the distribution of patients over age 70 and used BMD (estimated from CT) as a proxy for aging's implications on THR and used probabilistic FE analysis to understand how BMD loss affects oversizing of a press-fit cup. A cup oversized by 1.10 ± 0.28 mm provides sufficient fixation and lower stresses at the cup-bone interface for elderly patients. Defects in the anterior column and posterior column both required the same mean insertion force for cup seating of 84% (taken as an average of 2 anterior column and 2 posterior column defects) compared to the control configuration, which was 5% greater than the insertion force for a superior rim defect and 12% greater than the insertion force for an inferior rim defect. A defect along the superior or inferior rim had a minimal effect on cup fixation, while a defect in the columns created cup instability and increased stress at the defect location.

  20. Mediation analysis to estimate direct and indirect milk losses due to clinical mastitis in dairy cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detilleux, J; Kastelic, J P; Barkema, H W

    2015-03-01

    Milk losses associated with mastitis can be attributed to either effects of pathogens per se (i.e., direct losses) or effects of the immune response triggered by intramammary infection (indirect losses). The distinction is important in terms of mastitis prevention and treatment. Regardless, the number of pathogens is often unknown (particularly in field studies), making it difficult to estimate direct losses, whereas indirect losses can be approximated by measuring the association between increased somatic cell count (SCC) and milk production. An alternative is to perform a mediation analysis in which changes in milk yield are allocated into their direct and indirect components. We applied this method on data for clinical mastitis, milk and SCC test-day recordings, results of bacteriological cultures (Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus uberis, coagulase-negative staphylococci, Streptococcus dysgalactiae, and streptococci other than Strep. dysgalactiae and Strep. uberis), and cow characteristics. Following a diagnosis of clinical mastitis, the cow was treated and changes (increase or decrease) in milk production before and after a diagnosis were interpreted counterfactually. On a daily basis, indirect changes, mediated by SCC increase, were significantly different from zero for all bacterial species, with a milk yield decrease (ranging among species from 4 to 33g and mediated by an increase of 1000 SCC/mL/day) before and a daily milk increase (ranging among species from 2 to 12g and mediated by a decrease of 1000 SCC/mL/day) after detection. Direct changes, not mediated by SCC, were only different from zero for coagulase-negative staphylococci before diagnosis (72g per day). We concluded that mixed structural equation models were useful to estimate direct and indirect effects of the presence of clinical mastitis on milk yield. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Optical losses due to tracking error estimation for a low concentrating solar collector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sallaberry, Fabienne; García de Jalón, Alberto; Torres, José-Luis; Pujol-Nadal, Ramón

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A solar thermal collector with low concentration and one-axis tracking was tested. • A quasi-dynamic testing procedure for IAM was defined for tracking collector. • The adequation between the concentrator optics and the tracking was checked. • The maximum and long-term optical losses due to tracking error were calculated. - Abstract: The determination of the accuracy of a solar tracker used in domestic hot water solar collectors is not yet standardized. However, while using optical concentration devices, it is important to use a solar tracker with adequate precision with regard to the specific optical concentration factor. Otherwise, the concentrator would sustain high optical losses due to the inadequate focusing of the solar radiation onto its receiver, despite having a good quality. This study is focused on the estimation of long-term optical losses due to the tracking error of a low-temperature collector using low-concentration optics. For this purpose, a testing procedure for the incidence angle modifier on the tracking plane is proposed to determinate the acceptance angle of its concentrator even with different longitudinal incidence angles along the focal line plane. Then, the impact of maximum tracking error angle upon the optical efficiency has been determined. Finally, the calculation of the long-term optical error due to the tracking errors, using the design angular tracking error declared by the manufacturer, is carried out. The maximum tracking error calculated for this collector imply an optical loss of about 8.5%, which is high, but the average long-term optical loss calculated for one year was about 1%, which is reasonable for such collectors used for domestic hot water

  2. Measuring welfare loss caused by air pollution in Europe. A CGE analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nam, Kyung-Min [Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge (United States); Department of Urban Studies and Planning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge (United States); Selin, Noelle E. [Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge (United States); Engineering Systems Division and Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge (United States); Reilly, John M.; Paltsev, Sergey [Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge (United States)

    2010-09-15

    To evaluate the socio-economic impacts of air pollution, we develop an integrated approach based on computable general equilibrium (CGE). Applying our approach to 18 western European countries shows that even there, where air quality is relatively high compared with other parts of the world, health-related damages caused by air pollution may be substantial. We estimate that as of 2005, Europe experienced an annual loss in consumption of about 220 billion Euro in year 2000 prices (about 3% of total consumption) with a range based on 95% high and low epidemiological response functions of 107-335 billion Euro and a total welfare loss of about 370 billion Euro (range of 209-550) including both consumption and broader welfare losses (around 2% of welfare level) due to the accumulated effects of three decades of air pollution in Europe. In addition, we estimate that a set of air quality improvement policy scenarios as proposed in the 2005 CAFE program would bring 18 European countries as a whole a welfare gain of 37-49 billion Euro (year 2000 prices) in year 2020 alone. (author)

  3. Measuring welfare loss caused by air pollution in Europe: A CGE analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nam, Kyung-Min; Selin, Noelle E.; Reilly, John M.; Paltsev, Sergey

    2010-01-01

    To evaluate the socio-economic impacts of air pollution, we develop an integrated approach based on computable general equilibrium (CGE). Applying our approach to 18 western European countries shows that even there, where air quality is relatively high compared with other parts of the world, health-related damages caused by air pollution may be substantial. We estimate that as of 2005, Europe experienced an annual loss in consumption of about 220 billion Euro in year 2000 prices (about 3% of total consumption) with a range based on 95% high and low epidemiological response functions of 107-335 billion Euro and a total welfare loss of about 370 billion Euro (range of 209-550) including both consumption and broader welfare losses (around 2% of welfare level) due to the accumulated effects of three decades of air pollution in Europe. In addition, we estimate that a set of air quality improvement policy scenarios as proposed in the 2005 CAFE program would bring 18 European countries as a whole a welfare gain of 37-49 billion Euro (year 2000 prices) in year 2020 alone.

  4. Stochastic LMP (Locational marginal price) calculation method in distribution systems to minimize loss and emission based on Shapley value and two-point estimate method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azad-Farsani, Ehsan; Agah, S.M.M.; Askarian-Abyaneh, Hossein; Abedi, Mehrdad; Hosseinian, S.H.

    2016-01-01

    LMP (Locational marginal price) calculation is a serious impediment in distribution operation when private DG (distributed generation) units are connected to the network. A novel policy is developed in this study to guide distribution company (DISCO) to exert its control over the private units when power loss and green-house gases emissions are minimized. LMP at each DG bus is calculated according to the contribution of the DG to the reduced amount of loss and emission. An iterative algorithm which is based on the Shapley value method is proposed to allocate loss and emission reduction. The proposed algorithm will provide a robust state estimation tool for DISCOs in the next step of operation. The state estimation tool provides the decision maker with the ability to exert its control over private DG units when loss and emission are minimized. Also, a stochastic approach based on the PEM (point estimate method) is employed to capture uncertainty in the market price and load demand. The proposed methodology is applied to a realistic distribution network, and efficiency and accuracy of the method are verified. - Highlights: • Reduction of the loss and emission at the same time. • Fair allocation of loss and emission reduction. • Estimation of the system state using an iterative algorithm. • Ability of DISCOs to control DG units via the proposed policy. • Modeling the uncertainties to calculate the stochastic LMP.

  5. Laparoscopic total pancreatectomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xin; Li, Yongbin; Cai, Yunqiang; Liu, Xubao; Peng, Bing

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Rationale: Laparoscopic total pancreatectomy is a complicated surgical procedure and rarely been reported. This study was conducted to investigate the safety and feasibility of laparoscopic total pancreatectomy. Patients and Methods: Three patients underwent laparoscopic total pancreatectomy between May 2014 and August 2015. We reviewed their general demographic data, perioperative details, and short-term outcomes. General morbidity was assessed using Clavien–Dindo classification and delayed gastric emptying (DGE) was evaluated by International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery (ISGPS) definition. Diagnosis and Outcomes: The indications for laparoscopic total pancreatectomy were intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) (n = 2) and pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor (PNET) (n = 1). All patients underwent laparoscopic pylorus and spleen-preserving total pancreatectomy, the mean operative time was 490 minutes (range 450–540 minutes), the mean estimated blood loss was 266 mL (range 100–400 minutes); 2 patients suffered from postoperative complication. All the patients recovered uneventfully with conservative treatment and discharged with a mean hospital stay 18 days (range 8–24 days). The short-term (from 108 to 600 days) follow up demonstrated 3 patients had normal and consistent glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) level with acceptable quality of life. Lessons: Laparoscopic total pancreatectomy is feasible and safe in selected patients and pylorus and spleen preserving technique should be considered. Further prospective randomized studies are needed to obtain a comprehensive understanding the role of laparoscopic technique in total pancreatectomy. PMID:28099344

  6. Significance of losses in water distribution systems in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raman, V

    1983-01-01

    Effective management of water supply systems consists in supplying adequate quantities of clean water to the population. Detailed pilot studies of water distribution systems were carried out in 9 cities in India during 1971-81 to establish the feasibility of a programme of assessment, detection, and control of water losses from supply systems. A cost-benefit analysis was carried out. Water losses from mains and service pipes in the areas studied amounted to 20-35% of the total flow in the system. At a conservative estimate, the national loss of processed water through leaks in the water distribution systems amounts to 10(12) litres per year, which is equivalent to 500 million rupees.It is possible to bring down the water losses in the pipe mains to 3-5% of the total flow, and the cost incurred on the control programme can be recovered in 6-18 months. Appropriate conservation measures will help in achieving the goals of the International Water Supply and Sanitation Decade to provide clean water for all.

  7. A randomized trial of the effect of low dose epinephrine infusion in addition to tranexamic acid on blood loss during total hip arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jans, Ø.; Grevstad, U.; Mandoe, H.

    2016-01-01

    procedure. Intraoperative tranexamic acid (TXA) was administered to all subjects. The primary outcome was intraoperative blood loss directly measured by drains and weighing swabs. Secondary outcome was total blood loss at 24 h postoperatively calculated using the Gross formula. Results: Of 106 subjects...

  8. The combined use of Green-Ampt model and Curve Number method as an empirical tool for loss estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petroselli, A.; Grimaldi, S.; Romano, N.

    2012-12-01

    The Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN) method is a popular rainfall-runoff model widely used to estimate losses and direct runoff from a given rainfall event, but its use is not appropriate at sub-daily time resolution. To overcome this drawback, a mixed procedure, referred to as CN4GA (Curve Number for Green-Ampt), was recently developed including the Green-Ampt (GA) infiltration model and aiming to distribute in time the information provided by the SCS-CN method. The main concept of the proposed mixed procedure is to use the initial abstraction and the total volume given by the SCS-CN to calibrate the Green-Ampt soil hydraulic conductivity parameter. The procedure is here applied on a real case study and a sensitivity analysis concerning the remaining parameters is presented; results show that CN4GA approach is an ideal candidate for the rainfall excess analysis at sub-daily time resolution, in particular for ungauged basin lacking of discharge observations.

  9. Economic losses occurring due to brucellosis in Indian livestock populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, B B; Dhand, N K; Gill, J P S

    2015-05-01

    Brucellosis is a serious public health issue in India. Estimation of economic losses occurring due to brucellosis is required to help formulate prevention and control strategies, but has not been done in India. We estimated economic losses due to brucellosis by sourcing prevalence data from epidemiological surveys conducted in India. Data for livestock populations were obtained from official records. Probability distributions were used for many of the input parameters to account for uncertainty and variability. The analysis revealed that brucellosis in livestock is responsible for a median loss of US $ 3.4 billion (5th-95th percentile 2.8-4.2 billion). The disease in cattle and buffalo accounted for 95.6% of the total losses occurring due to brucellosis in livestock populations. The disease is responsible for a loss of US $ 6.8 per cattle, US$18.2 per buffalo, US $ 0.7 per sheep, US $ 0.5 per goat and US $ 0.6 per pig. These losses are additional to the economic and social consequences of the disease in humans. The results suggest that the disease causes significant economic losses in the country and should be controlled on a priority basis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Deforestation and Carbon Stock Loss in Brazil's Amazonian Settlements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanai, Aurora Miho; Nogueira, Euler Melo; de Alencastro Graça, Paulo Maurício Lima; Fearnside, Philip Martin

    2017-03-01

    We estimate deforestation and the carbon stock in 2740 (82 %) of the 3325 settlements in Brazil's Legal Amazonia region. Estimates are made both using available satellite data and a carbon map for the "pre-modern" period (prior to 1970). We used data from Brazil's Project for Monitoring Deforestation in Amazonia updated through 2013 and from the Brazilian Biomes Deforestation Monitoring Project (PMDBBS) updated through 2010. To obtain the pre-modern and recent carbon stocks we performed an intersection between a carbon map and a map derived from settlement boundaries and deforestation data. Although the settlements analyzed occupied only 8 % of Legal Amazonia, our results indicate that these settlements contributed 17 % (160,410 km 2 ) of total clearing (forest + non-forest) in Legal Amazonia (967,003 km 2 ). This represents a clear-cutting of 41 % of the original vegetation in the settlements. Out of this total, 72 % (115,634 km 2 ) was in the "Federal Settlement Project" (PA) category. Deforestation in settlements represents 20 % (2.6 Pg C) of the total carbon loss in Legal Amazonia (13.1 Pg C). The carbon stock in remaining vegetation represents 3.8 Pg C, or 6 % of the total remaining carbon stock in Legal Amazonia (58.6 Pg C) in the periods analyzed. The carbon reductions in settlements are caused both by the settlers and by external actors. Our findings suggest that agrarian reform policies contributed directly to carbon loss. Thus, the implementation of new settlements should consider potential carbon stock losses, especially if settlements are created in areas with high carbon stocks.

  11. The current total economic burden of diabetes mellitus in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, M L; Huisman, E L; Schoonen, M; Wolffenbuttel, B H R

    2017-09-01

    Insight into the total economic burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) is essential for decision makers and payers. Currently available estimates for the Netherlands only include part of the total burden or are no longer up-to-date. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the current total economic burden of DM and its complications in the Netherlands, by including all the relevant cost components. The study combined a systematic literature review to identify all relevant published information and a targeted review to identify relevant information in the grey literature. The identified evidence was then combined to estimate the current total economic burden. In 2016, there were an estimated 1.1 million DM patients in the Netherlands, of whom approximately 10% had type 1 and 90% had type 2 DM. The estimated current total economic burden of DM was € 6.8 billion in 2016. Healthcare costs (excluding costs of complications) were € 1.6 billion, direct costs of complications were € 1.3 billion and indirect costs due to productivity losses, welfare payments and complications were € 4.0 billion. DM and its complications pose a substantial economic burden to the Netherlands, which is expected to rise due to changing demographics and lifestyle. Indirect costs, such as welfare payments, accounted for a large portion of the current total economic burden of DM, while these cost components are often not included in cost estimations. Publicly available data for key cost drivers such as complications were scarce.

  12. Validating the use of 137Cs and 210Pbex measurements to estimate rates of soil loss from cultivated land in southern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto, Paolo; Walling, Des E

    2012-04-01

    Soil erosion represents an important threat to the long-term sustainability of agriculture and forestry in many areas of the world, including southern Italy. Numerous models and prediction procedures have been developed to estimate rates of soil loss and soil redistribution, based on the local topography, hydrometeorology, soil type and land management. However, there remains an important need for empirical measurements to provide a basis for validating and calibrating such models and prediction procedures as well as to support specific investigations and experiments. In this context, erosion plots provide useful information on gross rates of soil loss, but are unable to document the efficiency of the onward transfer of the eroded sediment within a field and towards the stream system, and thus net rates of soil loss from larger areas. The use of environmental radionuclides, particularly caesium-137 ((137)Cs) and excess lead-210 ((210)Pb(ex)), as a means of estimating rates of soil erosion and deposition has attracted increasing attention in recent years and the approach has now been recognised as possessing several important advantages. In order to provide further confirmation of the validity of the estimates of longer-term erosion and soil redistribution rates provided by (137)Cs and (210)Pb(ex) measurements, there is a need for studies aimed explicitly at validating the results obtained. In this context, the authors directed attention to the potential offered by a set of small erosion plots located near Reggio Calabria in southern Italy, for validating estimates of soil loss provided by (137)Cs and (210)Pb(ex) measurements. A preliminary assessment suggested that, notwithstanding the limitations and constraints involved, a worthwhile investigation aimed at validating the use of (137)Cs and (210)Pb(ex) measurements to estimate rates of soil loss from cultivated land could be undertaken. The results demonstrate a close consistency between the measured rates of soil

  13. Accounting for density reduction and structural loss in standing dead trees: Implications for forest biomass and carbon stock estimates in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domke Grant M

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Standing dead trees are one component of forest ecosystem dead wood carbon (C pools, whose national stock is estimated by the U.S. as required by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Historically, standing dead tree C has been estimated as a function of live tree growing stock volume in the U.S.'s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory. Initiated in 1998, the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis program (responsible for compiling the Nation's forest C estimates began consistent nationwide sampling of standing dead trees, which may now supplant previous purely model-based approaches to standing dead biomass and C stock estimation. A substantial hurdle to estimating standing dead tree biomass and C attributes is that traditional estimation procedures are based on merchantability paradigms that may not reflect density reductions or structural loss due to decomposition common in standing dead trees. The goal of this study was to incorporate standing dead tree adjustments into the current estimation procedures and assess how biomass and C stocks change at multiple spatial scales. Results Accounting for decay and structural loss in standing dead trees significantly decreased tree- and plot-level C stock estimates (and subsequent C stocks by decay class and tree component. At a regional scale, incorporating adjustment factors decreased standing dead quaking aspen biomass estimates by almost 50 percent in the Lake States and Douglas-fir estimates by more than 36 percent in the Pacific Northwest. Conclusions Substantial overestimates of standing dead tree biomass and C stocks occur when one does not account for density reductions or structural loss. Forest inventory estimation procedures that are descended from merchantability standards may need to be revised toward a more holistic approach to determining standing dead tree biomass and C attributes (i.e., attributes of tree biomass outside of sawlog

  14. Sound absorption coefficient in situ: an alternative for estimating soil loss factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freire, Rosane; Meletti de Abreu, Marco Henrique; Okada, Rafael Yuri; Soares, Paulo Fernando; GranhenTavares, Célia Regina

    2015-01-01

    The relationship between the sound absorption coefficient and factors of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) was determined in a section of the Maringá Stream basin, Paraná State, by using erosion plots. In the field, four erosion plots were built on a reduced scale, with dimensions of 2.0×12.5m. With respect to plot coverage, one was kept with bare soil and the others contained forage grass (Brachiaria), corn and wheat crops, respectively. Planting was performed without any type of conservation practice in an area with a 9% slope. A sedimentation tank was placed at the end of each plot to collect the material transported. For the acoustic system, pink noise was used in the measurement of the proposed monitoring, for collecting information on incident and reflected sound pressure levels. In general, obtained values of soil loss confirmed that 94.3% of material exported to the basin water came from the bare soil plot, 2.8% from the corn plot, 1.8% from the wheat plot, and 1.1% from the forage grass plot. With respect to the acoustic monitoring, results indicated that at 16kHz erosion plot coverage type had a significant influence on the sound absorption coefficient. High correlation coefficients were found in estimations of the A and C factors of the USLE, confirming that the acoustic technique is feasible for the determination of soil loss directly in the field. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Impact of work-related cancers in Taiwan-Estimation with QALY (quality-adjusted life year) and healthcare costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Lukas Jyuhn-Hsiarn; Lin, Cheng-Kuan; Hung, Mei-Chuan; Wang, Jung-Der

    2016-12-01

    This study estimates the annual numbers of eight work-related cancers, total losses of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and lifetime healthcare expenditures that possibly could be saved by improving occupational health in Taiwan. Three databases were interlinked: the Taiwan Cancer Registry, the National Mortality Registry, and the National Health Insurance Research Database. Annual numbers of work-related cancers were estimated based on attributable fractions (AFs) abstracted from a literature review. The survival functions for eight cancers were estimated and extrapolated to lifetime using a semi-parametric method. A convenience sample of 8846 measurements of patients' quality of life with EQ-5D was collected for utility values and multiplied by survival functions to estimate quality-adjusted life expectancies (QALEs). The loss-of-QALE was obtained by subtracting the QALE of cancer from age- and sex-matched referents simulated from national vital statistics. The lifetime healthcare expenditures were estimated by multiplying the survival probability with mean monthly costs paid by the National Health Insurance for cancer diagnosis and treatment and summing this for the expected lifetime. A total of 3010 males and 726 females with eight work-related cancers were estimated in 2010. Among them, lung cancer ranked first in terms of QALY loss, with an annual total loss-of-QALE of 28,463 QALYs and total lifetime healthcare expenditures of US$36.6 million. Successful prevention of eight work-related cancers would not only avoid the occurrence of 3736 cases of cancer, but would also save more than US$70 million in healthcare costs and 46,750 QALYs for the Taiwan society in 2010.

  16. Topical fibrin sealant versus intravenous tranexamic acid for reducing blood loss following total knee arthroplasty: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Fuqiang; Ma, Jinhui; Sun, Wei; Guo, Wanshou; Li, Zirong; Wang, Weiguo

    2016-08-01

    Efficacy and safety of topical application of a fibrin sealant (FS) compared with intravenous administration of tranexamic acid (TXA) for reducing blood loss after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is controversial. We undertook a meta-analysis to compare the effects of topical application of FS or intravenous administration of TXA on blood loss after TKA. PubMed, Medline, Embase, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library were searched to identify studies comparing FS with TXA for TKA patients. The mean difference (MD) of blood loss, hemoglobin value, and odds ratios (ORs) of transfusion requirements and adverse events in FS and TXA groups were pooled throughout the study. Relevant data were analyzed using RevMan v5.3. Five studies involving 359 patients were included (181 FS vs. 178 TXA). TXA use had a significantly lower prevalence of blood transfusion (OR = 3.14; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.67 to 5.90, P = 0.0004) and higher hemoglobin level (MD = -1.23; 95% CI, -2.19 to -0.27, P = 0.01) than FS in the early postoperative period. No significant difference was seen in total blood loss between the two groups (MD = 198.06; 95% CI, -267.45 to 663.57; P = 0.40). There were no significant differences in adverse events, superficial infections, or deep-vein thrombosis among study groups. Our meta-analysis suggests that intravenous administration of TXA for patients undergoing TKA may reduce blood-transfusion requirements and maintain higher hemoglobin levels compared with topical application of FS in the early postoperative period. There were no significant differences in total calculated blood loss and prevalence of complications between the two groups. However, owing to the variation of included studies, no firm conclusions can be drawn. Copyright © 2016 IJS Publishing Group Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Loss of P53 Function in Colon Cancer Cells Results in Increased Phosphocholine and Total Choline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noriko Mori

    2004-10-01

    Full Text Available Mutations in the p53 gene are the most frequently observed genetic lesions in human cancers. Human cancers that contain a p53 mutation are more aggressive, more apt to metastasize, and more often fatal. p53 controls numerous downstream targets that can influence various outcomes such as apoptosis, growth arrest, and DNA repair. Based on previous observations using 1H magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS, we have identified choline phospholipid metabolite intensities typical of increased malignancy. Here we have used 1H MRS to characterize the choline phospholipid metabolite levels of p53+/+ and p53−/– cells, and demonstrated that loss of p53 function results in increased phosphocholine and total choline. These data suggest that the increased malignancy of cancer cells resulting from loss of p53 may be mediated, in part, through the choline phospholipid pathway.

  18. Consumer loss in Czech photovoltaic power plants in 2010–2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Průša, Jan; Klimešova, Andrea; Janda, Karel

    2013-01-01

    This paper provides a financial survey of a small sample of Czech photovoltaic (PV) plants. To evaluate the extent of market losses, we calculate the shadow market price of solar electricity. From the profit and loss accounts of the PV plants and the shadow market price we estimate the total economic loss generated by PV electricity sector in the Czech Republic. The presented microeconomic approach has two main advantages: firstly, we work with real observed data, which offsets the drawback of a limited sample. Secondly, the profit accounting calculation enables sensitivity analysis with respect to key variables of the plants. We show that money invested in PV plants would generate an annual loss of 8%. Given the estimated solar assets of CZK 165.6 billion (EUR 6.6 billion) as of December 2011, this translates in at least CZK 12.6 billion lost in the Czech solar sector in 2012. About 43% of this loss is due to high technology costs and corresponds to pure dead weight loss, while the remaining 57% constitute the redistributive profit component of subsidies. Finally, we calculate that unless electricity prices increase or technology costs decrease approximately sevenfold, PV plants will remain loss making. - Highlights: • We calculate economic losses generated by Czech photovoltaic power plants. • Without subsidies estimated loss is CZK 12.6 billion in 2012 (8% of invested assets). • 43% is the dead weight loss due to high technology costs. • 57% is the profit redistributed out of subsidies as interest payments to banks. • Only a 7-fold change in parameters of the model would make PV plants profitable

  19. Global CO2 fluxes estimated from GOSAT retrievals of total column CO2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Basu

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available We present one of the first estimates of the global distribution of CO2 surface fluxes using total column CO2 measurements retrieved by the SRON-KIT RemoTeC algorithm from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT. We derive optimized fluxes from June 2009 to December 2010. We estimate fluxes from surface CO2 measurements to use as baselines for comparing GOSAT data-derived fluxes. Assimilating only GOSAT data, we can reproduce the observed CO2 time series at surface and TCCON sites in the tropics and the northern extra-tropics. In contrast, in the southern extra-tropics GOSAT XCO2 leads to enhanced seasonal cycle amplitudes compared to independent measurements, and we identify it as the result of a land–sea bias in our GOSAT XCO2 retrievals. A bias correction in the form of a global offset between GOSAT land and sea pixels in a joint inversion of satellite and surface measurements of CO2 yields plausible global flux estimates which are more tightly constrained than in an inversion using surface CO2 data alone. We show that assimilating the bias-corrected GOSAT data on top of surface CO2 data (a reduces the estimated global land sink of CO2, and (b shifts the terrestrial net uptake of carbon from the tropics to the extra-tropics. It is concluded that while GOSAT total column CO2 provide useful constraints for source–sink inversions, small spatiotemporal biases – beyond what can be detected using current validation techniques – have serious consequences for optimized fluxes, even aggregated over continental scales.

  20. The Global Burden of Potential Productivity Loss from Uncorrected Presbyopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frick, Kevin D; Joy, Susan M; Wilson, David A; Naidoo, Kovin S; Holden, Brien A

    2015-08-01

    The onset of presbyopia in middle adulthood results in potential losses in productivity among otherwise healthy adults if uncorrected or undercorrected. The economic burden could be significant in lower-income countries, where up to 94% of cases may be uncorrected or undercorrected. This study estimates the global burden of potential productivity lost because of uncorrected functional presbyopia. Population data from the US Census Bureau were combined with the estimated presbyopia prevalence, age of onset, employment rate, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in current US dollars, and near vision impairment disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study to estimate the global loss of productivity from uncorrected and undercorrected presbyopia in each country in 2011. To allow comparison with earlier work, we also calculated the loss with the conservative assumption that the contribution to productivity extends only up to 50 years of age. The economic modeling did not require the use of subjects. We estimated the number of cases of uncorrected or undercorrected presbyopia in each country among the working-age population. The number of working-age cases was multiplied by the labor force participation rate, the employment rate, a disability weight, and the GDP per capita to estimate the potential loss of GDP due to presbyopia. The outcome being measured is the lost productivity in 2011 US dollars resulting from uncorrected or undercorrected presbyopia. There were an estimated 1.272 billion cases of presbyopia worldwide in 2011. A total of 244 million cases, uncorrected or undercorrected among people aged productivity loss of US $11.023 billion (0.016% of global GDP). If all those people aged productive, the potential productivity loss would be US $25.367 billion or 0.037% of global GDP. Correcting presbyopia to the level achieved in Europe would reduce the burden to US $1.390 billion (0.002% of global GDP). Even with conservative assumptions

  1. Preliminary Results of Clover and Grass Coverage and Total Dry Matter Estimation in Clover-Grass Crops Using Image Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders K. Mortensen

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The clover-grass ratio is an important factor in composing feed ratios for livestock. Cameras in the field allow the user to estimate the clover-grass ratio using image analysis; however, current methods assume the total dry matter is known. This paper presents the preliminary results of an image analysis method for non-destructively estimating the total dry matter of clover-grass. The presented method includes three steps: (1 classification of image illumination using a histogram of the difference in excess green and excess red; (2 segmentation of clover and grass using edge detection and morphology; and (3 estimation of total dry matter using grass coverage derived from the segmentation and climate parameters. The method was developed and evaluated on images captured in a clover-grass plot experiment during the spring growing season. The preliminary results are promising and show a high correlation between the image-based total dry matter estimate and the harvested dry matter ( R 2 = 0.93 with an RMSE of 210 kg ha − 1 .

  2. Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Land Loss in Mississippi River Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, S.; Edmonds, D. A.; Robeson, S. M.; Ortiz, A. C.; Nienhuis, J.

    2017-12-01

    Land loss across the Louisiana coast is predicted to exceed 10,000 km2 by 2100. An estimated 18-24 billion tons of sediment is needed to offset land loss, but available sediment supply from the Mississippi River falls short. As a result, coastal restoration plans must target certain areas, which highlight the importance of understanding the processes and patterns of land loss. In this study, we use remote sensing to investigate and quantify land loss patterns, as well as the corresponding morphology of the land segments that are lost. Using Google Earth Engine, we combined over 10,000 time-series Landsat imagery in the Mississippi River Delta to create twelve, three-year composites from 1983 to 2016. We then spectrally unmixed each pixel into land and water percentages, and create land-water binaries. Stratifying by hydrologic unit code boundaries and local subsidence rates, we analyze the land loss pixels using landscape metrics. Our results show that the total loss from 1983-2016 for our area of interest was 908.02 km2 (loss of 5.84%) and total land area was 6855.63 km2 (49.97 % of total area) in 2016 compared to 7763.65 km2 (44.13%) in 1983 consistent with previous estimates for our study area. Land loss pixels have a low patch density (mean of 4.80 patches/ha) and high aggregation indices (mean of 47.15), which indicates that land-loss pixels tend to clump together. The shape index of these clumped pixels are also low (mean of 2.32), which points towards long, narrow patches and edges. Local indicator of spatial autocorrelation (LISA) areas was applied to determine areas of high positive autocorrelation within the loss pixels which reinforced loss across edges. Based on spatial metrics and subsidence grid based analysis on the temporal pattern of land loss pixels we find that i) land change (both growth and loss pixels) occurs along the marsh, lake and coastal edges rather than inland; ii) subsidence, though positively correlated with landloss, is no longer the

  3. Multitemporal analysis of estimated soil loss for the river Mourão watershed, Paraná - Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graça, C H; Passig, F H; Kelniar, A R; Piza, M A; Carvalho, K Q; Arantes, E J

    2015-12-01

    The multitemporal behavior of soil loss by surface water erosion in the hydrographic basin of the river Mourão in the center-western region of the Paraná state, Brazil, is analyzed. Forecast was based on the application of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with the data integration and estimates within an Geography Information System (GIS) environment. Results had shown high mean annual rain erosivity (10,000 MJ.mm.ha(-1).h(-1).year(-1)), with great concentration in January and December. As a rule, soils have average erodibilities, exception of Dystroferric Red Latisol (low class) and Dystrophic Red Argisol (high class). Although the topographic factor was high (>20), rates lower than 1 were predominant. Main land uses comprise temporal crops and pasture throughout the years. The watershed showed a natural potential for low surface erosion. When related to usage types, yearly soil loss was also low (Soil loss over the years did not provide great distinctions in distribution standards, although it becames rather intensified in some sectors, especially in the center-eastern and southwestern sections of the watershed.

  4. The estimated reduction in the odds of loss-of-control type crashes for sport utility vehicles equipped with electronic stability control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Paul E; Woodrooffe, John

    2006-01-01

    Using data from the NASS General Estimates System (GES), the method of induced exposure was used to assess the effects of electronic stability control (ESC) on loss-of-control type crashes for sport utility vehicles. Sport utility vehicles were classified into crash types generally associated with loss of control and crash types most likely not associated with loss of control. Vehicles were then compared as to whether ESC technology was present or absent in the vehicles. A generalized additive model was fit to assess the effects of ESC, driver age, and driver gender on the odds of loss of control. In addition, the effects of ESC on roads that were not dry were compared to effects on roads that were dry. Overall, the estimated percentage reduction in the odds of a loss-of-control crash for sport utility vehicles equipped with ESC was 70.3%. Both genders and all age groups showed reduced odds of loss-of-control crashes, but there was no significant difference between males and females. With respect to driver age, the maximum percentage reduction of 73.6% occurred at age 27. The positive effects of ESC on roads that were not dry were significantly greater than on roads that were dry.

  5. The efficiency and safety of fibrin sealant for reducing blood loss in primary total hip arthroplasty: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhiyuan; Xiao, Lin; Guo, Hao; Zhao, Guanghui; Ma, Jianbing

    2017-01-01

    Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is associated with substantial blood loss. The objective of present systematic review and meta-analysis is to provide evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on the efficiency and safety of administration of fibrin sealant (FS) for reducing blood loss in patients undergoing primary THA. Potential relevant studies were identified from electronic databases including Medline, PubMed, Embase, ScienceDirect, web of science and Cochrane Library. Gray academic studies were also identified from the reference list of included studies. There was no language restriction. Pooling of data was carried out by using RevMan 5.1. Six randomized controlled trials (RCTs) met the inclusion criteria. Current meta-analysis indicated that there were significant differences in terms of total blood loss (MD = -153.77, 95% CI: -287.21 to -20.34, P = 0.02), postoperative hemoglobin level (MD = -0.25, 95% CI: -0.46 to -0.05, P = 0.02) and transfusion rate (RD = -0.12, 95% CI: -0.22 to -0.03, P = 0.01) between groups. No significant differences were found regarding the incidence of deep venous thrombosis (DVT) (RD = 0.00, 95% CI: -0.01to 0.01, P = 0.51) or other side effects. Administration of fibrin sealant in total hip arthroplasty may reduce total blood loss, postoperative hemoglobin decline and transfusion requirements. Moreover, no adverse effect was related to FS. Due to the limited quality of the evidence currently available, higher quality RCTs are required. Copyright © 2016 IJS Publishing Group Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Variable selection for confounder control, flexible modeling and Collaborative Targeted Minimum Loss-based Estimation in causal inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnitzer, Mireille E.; Lok, Judith J.; Gruber, Susan

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the appropriateness of the integration of flexible propensity score modeling (nonparametric or machine learning approaches) in semiparametric models for the estimation of a causal quantity, such as the mean outcome under treatment. We begin with an overview of some of the issues involved in knowledge-based and statistical variable selection in causal inference and the potential pitfalls of automated selection based on the fit of the propensity score. Using a simple example, we directly show the consequences of adjusting for pure causes of the exposure when using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). Such variables are likely to be selected when using a naive approach to model selection for the propensity score. We describe how the method of Collaborative Targeted minimum loss-based estimation (C-TMLE; van der Laan and Gruber, 2010) capitalizes on the collaborative double robustness property of semiparametric efficient estimators to select covariates for the propensity score based on the error in the conditional outcome model. Finally, we compare several approaches to automated variable selection in low-and high-dimensional settings through a simulation study. From this simulation study, we conclude that using IPTW with flexible prediction for the propensity score can result in inferior estimation, while Targeted minimum loss-based estimation and C-TMLE may benefit from flexible prediction and remain robust to the presence of variables that are highly correlated with treatment. However, in our study, standard influence function-based methods for the variance underestimated the standard errors, resulting in poor coverage under certain data-generating scenarios. PMID:26226129

  7. Low-maintenance energy requirements of obese dogs after weight loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    German, Alexander J; Holden, Shelley L; Mather, Nicola J; Morris, Penelope J; Biourge, Vincent

    2011-10-01

    Weight rebound after successful weight loss is a well-known phenomenon in humans and dogs, possibly due to the fact that energy restriction improves metabolic efficiency, reducing post-weight-loss maintenance energy requirements (MER). The aim of the present study was to estimate post-weight-loss MER in obese pet dogs that had successfully lost weight and did not subsequently rebound. A total of twenty-four obese dogs, successfully completing a weight management programme at the Royal Canin Weight Management Clinic, University of Liverpool (Wirral, UK), were included. In all dogs, a period of >14 d of stable weight ( lean tissue lost was negatively associated with post-weight-loss MER. MER are low after weight loss in obese pet dogs (typically only 10 % more than required during weight-loss MER), which has implications for what should constitute the optimal diet during this period. Preserving lean tissue during weight loss may maximise post-weight-loss MER and help prevent rebound.

  8. Empirical Estimation of Total Nitrogen and Total Phosphorus Concentration of Urban Water Bodies in China Using High Resolution IKONOS Multispectral Imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiaming Liu

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Measuring total nitrogen (TN and total phosphorus (TP is important in managing heavy polluted urban waters in China. This study uses high spatial resolution IKONOS imagery with four multispectral bands, which roughly correspond to Landsat/TM bands 1–4, to determine TN and TP in small urban rivers and lakes in China. By using Lake Cihu and the lower reaches of Wen-Rui Tang (WRT River as examples, this paper develops both multiple linear regressions (MLR and artificial neural network (ANN models to estimate TN and TP concentrations from high spatial resolution remote sensing imagery and in situ water samples collected concurrently with overpassing satellite. The measured and estimated values of both MLR and ANN models are in good agreement (R2 > 0.85 and RMSE < 2.50. The empirical equations selected by MLR are more straightforward, whereas the estimated accuracy using ANN model is better (R2 > 0.86 and RMSE < 0.89. Results validate the potential of using high resolution IKONOS multispectral imagery to study the chemical states of small-sized urban water bodies. The spatial distribution maps of TN and TP concentrations generated by the ANN model can inform the decision makers of variations in water quality in Lake Cihu and lower reaches of WRT River. The approaches and equations developed in this study could be applied to other urban water bodies for water quality monitoring.

  9. On Assessment and Estimation of Potential Losses due to Land Subsidence in Urban Areas of Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abidin, Hasanuddin Z.; Andreas, Heri; Gumilar, Irwan; Sidiq, Teguh P.

    2016-04-01

    subsidence have also relation among each other, the accurate quantification of the potential losses caused by land subsidence in urban areas is not an easy task to accomplish. The direct losses can be easier to estimate than the indirect losses. For example, the direct losses due to land subsidence in Bandung was estimated to be at least 180 Million USD; but the indirect losses is still unknown.

  10. Comparison of Two Methods of Bolus and Infusion of Tranexamic Acid in Reduction of Blood Loss in Total Knee Arthroplasty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammadreza Moshari

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available AbstractBackground: So far, many studies have been performed to determine the optimal dose and regimen of tranexamic acid to reduce preoperative and postoperative blood loss in primary total knee arthroplasty. In the present study, two different methods of administration (bolus and infusion, were compared.Materials and Methods: Forty patients were randomized in the two groups (A and B of 20 patients each. All patients received 500 mg tranexamic acid before inflation of tourniquet. Group A (mean age, 64± 6.1 years received 500 mg tranexamic acid 10 minutes before loosening of tourniquet and group B (mean age, 63.5 ± 7.7 years received 500 mg tranexamic acid through IV infusion during 6 hours from the time of tourniquet loosening (total dose of TA, 1 g in both groups. Intraoperative blood loss,postoperative drainage (in 6 and 12 hours, blood transfusion (in 48 hours, and decrease in hematocrit and hemoglobin (6 and 12 hours later, were compared between the two groups.Results: The patients in group B had lower intra- and postoperative blood loss in 6 and 12 hours and also had lower decrease in hemoglobin, and their packed cell transfusion rate was significantly lower compared to the group A.Conclusion: The findings of this study indicated that infusion administration of tranexamic acid in primary total knee arthroplasty, was more effective in the reduction of perioperative blood loss as well as need for blood transfusion in 48 hours.

  11. Should total landings be used to correct estimated catch in numbers or mean-weight-at-age?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lewy, Peter; Lassen, H.

    1997-01-01

    Many ICES fish stock assessment working groups have practised Sum Of Products, SOP, correction. This correction stems from a comparison of total weights of the known landings and the SOP over age of catch in number and mean weight-at-age, which ideally should be identical. In case of SOP...... discrepancies some countries correct catch in numbers while others correct mean weight-at-age by a common factor, the ratio between landing and SOP. The paper shows that for three sampling schemes the SOP corrections are statistically incorrect and should not be made since the SOP is an unbiased estimate...... of the total landings. Calculation of the bias of estimated catch in numbers and mean weight-at-age shows that SOP corrections of either of these estimates may increase the bias. Furthermore, for five demersal and one pelagic North Sea species it is shown that SOP discrepancies greater than 2% from...

  12. Estimation of break location and size for loss of coolant accidents using neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Na, Man Gyun; Shin, Sun Ho; Jung, Dong Won; Kim, Soong Pyung; Jeong, Ji Hwan; Lee, Byung Chul

    2004-01-01

    In this work, a probabilistic neural network (PNN) that has been applied well to the classification problems is used in order to identify the break locations of loss of coolant accidents (LOCA) such as hot-leg, cold-leg and steam generator tubes. Also, a fuzzy neural network (FNN) is designed to estimate the break size. The inputs to PNN and FNN are time-integrated values obtained by integrating measurement signals during a short time interval after reactor scram. An automatic structure constructor for the fuzzy neural network automatically selects the input variables from the time-integrated values of many measured signals, and optimizes the number of rules and its related parameters. It is verified that the proposed algorithm identifies very well the break locations of LOCAs and also, estimate their break size accurately

  13. Lungworm outbreaks in adult dairy cows: estimating economic losses and lessons to be learned.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzhauer, M; van Schaik, G; Saatkamp, H W; Ploeger, H W

    2011-11-05

    Two lungworm outbreaks in dairy herds were investigated in order to estimate the resulting economic costs. On the two farms, with 110 and 95 cows, total costs were estimated at €159 and €167 per cow, respectively. Overall, milk production reduced by 15 to 20 per cent during the outbreaks. Five cows died on one farm, while on the other farm seven cows died as a result of the lungworm outbreak. On one farm, 51.7 per cent of the total costs was due to reduced milk production and 33.1 per cent was due to disposal of dead animals. On the other farm, it was 36.3 and 50.9 per cent, respectively. The remaining 13 to 15 per cent of the total costs were due to extra inseminations, laboratory diagnosis and treatments. The history and development of the outbreaks are described. One lesson from these outbreaks is that recognising that potentially lungworm-naïve animals are to be introduced into the adult herd allows for timely measures (for example, vaccination) to prevent a lungworm outbreak.

  14. Association Between Dietary Fiber Intake and Bone Loss in the Framingham Offspring Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Zhaoli; Zhang, Yuqing; Lu, Na; Felson, David T; Kiel, Douglas P; Sahni, Shivani

    2018-02-01

    Dietary fiber may increase calcium absorption, but its role in bone mineralization is unclear. Furthermore, the health effect of dietary fiber may be different between sexes. We examined the association between dietary fiber (total fiber and fiber from cereal, fruits, vegetables, nuts, and legumes) and bone loss at the femoral neck, trochanter, and lumbar spine (L 2 to L 4 ) in older men and women. In the Framingham Offspring Study, at baseline (1996-2001), diet was assessed using the Willett food-frequency questionnaire, and bone mineral density (BMD) was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Follow-up BMD was measured in 2001-2005 and 2005-2008 among 792 men (mean age 58.1 years; BMI 28.6 kg/m 2 ) and 1065 women (mean age 57.3 years; BMI 27.2 kg/m 2 ). We used sex-specific generalized estimating equations in multivariable regressions to estimate the difference (β) of annualized BMD change in percent (%ΔBMD) at each skeletal site per 5 g/d increase in dietary fiber. We further estimated the adjusted mean for bone loss (annualized %ΔBMD) among participants in each higher quartile (Q2, Q3, or Q4) compared with those in the lowest quartile (Q1) of fiber intake. Higher dietary total fiber (β = 0.06, p = 0.003) and fruit fiber (β = 0.10, p = 0.008) was protective against bone loss at the femoral neck in men but not in women. When examined in quartiles, men in Q2-Q4 of total fiber had significantly less bone loss at the femoral neck versus those in Q1 (all p fiber from vegetables appeared to be protective against spine bone loss in women but not men. There were no associations with cereal fiber or nut and legume fiber and bone loss in men or women. Our findings suggest that higher dietary fiber may modestly reduce bone loss in men at the hip. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

  15. Estimating gene gain and loss rates in the presence of error in genome assembly and annotation using CAFE 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Mira V; Thomas, Gregg W C; Lugo-Martinez, Jose; Hahn, Matthew W

    2013-08-01

    Current sequencing methods produce large amounts of data, but genome assemblies constructed from these data are often fragmented and incomplete. Incomplete and error-filled assemblies result in many annotation errors, especially in the number of genes present in a genome. This means that methods attempting to estimate rates of gene duplication and loss often will be misled by such errors and that rates of gene family evolution will be consistently overestimated. Here, we present a method that takes these errors into account, allowing one to accurately infer rates of gene gain and loss among genomes even with low assembly and annotation quality. The method is implemented in the newest version of the software package CAFE, along with several other novel features. We demonstrate the accuracy of the method with extensive simulations and reanalyze several previously published data sets. Our results show that errors in genome annotation do lead to higher inferred rates of gene gain and loss but that CAFE 3 sufficiently accounts for these errors to provide accurate estimates of important evolutionary parameters.

  16. The relationship between player losses and gambling-related harm: evidence from nationally representative cross-sectional surveys in four countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markham, Francis; Young, Martin; Doran, Bruce

    2016-02-01

    Flaws in previous studies mean that findings of J-shaped risk curves for gambling should be disregarded. The current study aims to estimate the shape of risk curves for gambling losses and risk of gambling-related harm (a) for total gambling losses and (b) disaggregated by gambling activity. Four cross-sectional surveys. Nationally representative surveys of adults in Australia (1999), Canada (2000), Finland (2011) and Norway (2002). A total of 10 632 Australian adults, 3120 Canadian adults, 4484 people aged 15-74 years in Finland and 5235 people aged 15-74 years in Norway. Problem gambling risk was measured using the modified South Oaks Gambling Screen, the NORC DSM Screen for Gambling Problems and the Problem Gambling Severity Index. Risk curves for total gambling losses were estimated to be r-shaped in Australia {β losses = 4.7 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.8, 6.5], β losses(2 =)  -7.6 (95% CI = -17.5, -4.5)}, Canada [β losses = 2.0 (95% CI = 1.3, 3.9), β losses(2 =)  -3.9 (95% CI = -15.4, -2.2)] and Finland [β losses = 3.6 (95% CI = 2.5, 7.5), β losses(2 =)  -4.4 (95% CI = -34.9, -2.4)] and linear in Norway [β losses = 1.6 (95% CI = 0.6, 3.1), β losses(2 =)  -2.6 (95% CI = -12.6, 1.4)]. Risk curves for different gambling activities showed either linear, r-shaped or non-significant relationships. Player loss-risk curves for total gambling losses and for different gambling activities are likely to be linear or r-shaped. For total losses and electronic gaming machines, there is no evidence of a threshold below which increasing losses does not increase the risk of harm. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  17. Avaliação da perda sanguínea na artroplastia total do joelho com e sem soltura do torniquete Blood loss in total knee arthroplasty with and without tourniquet release

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Wanderley Vasconcelos

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Avaliar a perda sanguínea em pacientes submetidos à artroplastia total cimentada do joelho com e sem soltura trans-operatória do torniquete pneumático para a hemostasia. MÉTODOS: Foram estudados 72 pacientes submetidos à artroplastia total, num total de 80 joelhos, divididos em dois grupos: Grupo 1 onde se manteve o torniquete pneumático até a sutura e curativo da ferida operatória, e Grupo 2 onde foi realizada a soltura do torniquete pneumático após a cimentação da prótese, com realização de hemostasia direta, antes da sutura e curativo. Os pacientes foram avaliados quanto ao sangramento pelo dreno de sucção e à contagem de hemoglobina e hematócrito, considerando os intervalos de duas, 24 e 48 horas de pós-operatório. RESULTADOS: Não houve diferença significante entre os dois grupos quanto ao sangramento pós-operatório e decréscimo dos parâmetros hematimétricos. Somente um paciente do Grupo 2 necessitou transfusão de concentrado de hemáceas no pós-operatório. CONCLUSÃO: O sangramento pós-operatório na ATJ mostrou-se igual com e sem a soltura do torniquete pneumático para a realização da hemostasia.OBJECTIVE: To evaluate blood loss in patients submitted to cemented total knee arthroplasty with and without perioperative tourniquet release for hemostasis. METHODS: Seventy-two patients (eighty knees were submitted to total knee arthroplasty, allocated into two groups: in Group 1, in which the pneumatic tourniquet was maintained until suture and dressing of the operated wound, and Group 2, in which the pneumatic tourniquet was released intraoperatively after cementing the prosthesis, with direct hemostasis, before the suture and dressing. The patients were evaluated for blood loss by the suction drain, and hemoglobin and hematocrit counts, at intervals of 2, 24 and 48 hours in the postoperative period tube. RESULTS: There was no significant difference between the groups in terms of postoperative blood

  18. Dry eye disease and work productivity loss in visual display users: the Osaka study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uchino, Miki; Uchino, Yuichi; Dogru, Murat; Kawashima, Motoko; Yokoi, Norihiko; Komuro, Aoi; Sonomura, Yukiko; Kato, Hiroaki; Kinoshita, Shigeru; Schaumberg, Debra A; Tsubota, Kazuo

    2014-02-01

    To estimate the impact of dry eye disease (DED) on work performance and productivity in office workers using visual display terminals (VDTs). Cross-sectional study. Six hundred seventy-two Japanese young and middle-aged office workers using VDTs completed a questionnaire that was designed to measured at-work performance deficits and productivity losses using the Japanese version of the Work Limitations Questionnaire, completed by e-mail. Using the Japanese dry eye diagnostic criteria, respondents were classified into 3 groups: definite DED, probable DED, and non DED. Of the 672 office workers, 553 subjects (82.3%), including 366 men and 187 women, completed the questionnaire and underwent clinical evaluation. As for the total workplace productivity loss, the non DED group demonstrated a loss of 3.56%, those with probable DED demonstrated a loss of 4.06%, and those with definite DED demonstrated a loss of 4.82%, indicating significantly worse performance and productivity (P = .014, trend test). For the 4 subscales, DED was associated with significantly lower on-the-job time management (P = .009, trend test) and combined mental performance and interpersonal functioning (P = .011, trend test). After controlling for age, sex, VDT working hours, and diagnosis of DED, time management, physical demands, and mental and interpersonal functioning showed a significant relationship to DED (each P > .05). Annual DED productivity losses were estimated to be $6160 per employee when measured by total production and $1178 per employee calculated by wage. This study indicated that there is a significant impact of DED on the total productivity of Japanese VDT users. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Direct impacts of outer continental shelf activities on wetland loss in the central Gulf of Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baumann, R.H.; Turner, R.E.

    1990-01-01

    The direct impacts of outer continental shelf (OCS) development on recent wetland loss in the northern Gulf of Mexico were quantified using aerial imagery, field surveys, and literature review. The total direct impacts accounted for an estimated 25.6 percent of total net wetland loss within the Louisiana portion of the study area from 1955/56 to 1978. Of the total direct impacts of 73,905 ha, OCS-related activities accounted for 11,589-13,631 ha of the wetland loss during the same time interval. Although this is a substantial areal loss, it represents only 4.0-4.7 percent of the total Louisiana wetland loss from 1955/56 to 1978, and 15.7-18.4 percent of direct impacts. Direct impacts from OCS pipelines averages 2.49 ha/km, lower than published guidelines, and totaled 12,012 ha. Lowest impacts are for backfilled pipelines in the Chenier Plain of western Louisiana and for small young pipeline canals does not appear to be an important factor for total new wetland loss in the coastal zone because few pipelines are open to navigation and, for the examples found, the impact width was not significantly different than for open pipelines closed to navigation. Navigation channels account for a minimum of 16,902 ha of habitat change. Direct impacts per unit length of navigation channel average 20 times greater than pipelines

  20. Estimation of total Effort and Effort Elapsed in Each Step of Software Development Using Optimal Bayesian Belief Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Zare Baghiabad

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Accuracy in estimating the needed effort for software development caused software effort estimation to be a challenging issue. Beside estimation of total effort, determining the effort elapsed in each software development step is very important because any mistakes in enterprise resource planning can lead to project failure. In this paper, a Bayesian belief network was proposed based on effective components and software development process. In this model, the feedback loops are considered between development steps provided that the return rates are different for each project. Different return rates help us determine the percentages of the elapsed effort in each software development step, distinctively. Moreover, the error measurement resulted from optimized effort estimation and the optimal coefficients to modify the model are sought. The results of the comparison between the proposed model and other models showed that the model has the capability to highly accurately estimate the total effort (with the marginal error of about 0.114 and to estimate the effort elapsed in each software development step.

  1. Economic Loan Loss Provision and Expected Loss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Hlawatsch

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The intention of a loan loss provision is the anticipation of the loan's expected losses by adjusting the book value of the loan. Furthermore, this loan loss provision has to be compared to the expected loss according to Basel II and, in the case of a difference, liable equity has to be adjusted. This however assumes that the loan loss provision and the expected loss are based on a similar economic rationale, which is only valid conditionally in current loan loss provisioning methods according to IFRS. Therefore, differences between loan loss provisions and expected losses should only result from different approaches regarding the parameter estimation within each model and not due to different assumptions regarding the outcome of the model. The provisioning and accounting model developed in this paper overcomes the before-mentioned shortcomings and is consistent with an economic rationale of expected losses. Additionally, this model is based on a close-to-market valuation of the loan that is in favor of the basic idea of IFRS. Suggestions for changes in current accounting and capital requirement rules are provided.

  2. Comparison of topical and intravenous administration of tranexamic acid for blood loss control during total joint replacement: Review of literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgi P. Georgiev

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Many randomised controlled trials and meta-analysis studies have presented the efficacy of tranexamic acid (TXA without an increase of complications. However, questions still remain about the type of administration, optimal dose and secondary outcomes of TXA in total hip arthroplasty and total knee arthroplasty. The aim of this review is to summarise the existing information in literature concerning the pharmacological characteristics of TXA, forms, doses, types of application and contraindications for its use. Methods: A literature review containing 63 articles from the PubMed data starting from the first description of tranexamic acid until now was made in trying to present the existing information in a simple and effective way. Results: TXA leads to statistically significant reduction of peri and postoperative bleeding and in that way decreases blood transfusion rates and the infection risk. Topical and intravenous (IV use of TXA revealed similar results, with no increase of deep venous thrombosis. Therefore, topical TXA could be a reasonable alternative in patients with contraindications for IV application of TXA. Conclusions: Blood loss control with TXA, a synthetic analogue of the amino acid lysine, may be an excellent and safe alternative to allogeneic blood transfusion after total hip arthroplasty and total knee arthroplasty. Further studies are needed to establish the efficacy of combined IV and topical administration of TXA with regard to diminishing blood loss and reducing hospital stay. The Translational Potential of this Article: This review briefly presents the pharmacological characteristics of TXA, forms, doses, types of application and contraindications for its use with regard to diminishing blood loss and reducing hospital stay for better therapeutic strategies in orthopaedics. Keywords: Arthroplasty, Review, Tranexamic acid

  3. Does the suction drain diameter matter? Bleeding analysis after total knee replacement comparing different suction drain gauges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos George de Souza Leao

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT OBJECTIVES: To evaluate bleeding and the estimated blood loss in patients who underwent total knee replacement (TKR with different closed suction drains (3.2-mm and 4.8-mm gauge. METHODS: This was a randomized controlled trial with 22 patients who underwent TKR and were divided into two groups: Group I, with 11 patients in whom the 3.2-mm suction drain was used, and Group II, with 11 patients in whom the 4.8-mm suction drain was used. The hematocrit was measured after 24, 48 and 72 h after surgery in order to calculate the estimated blood loss. The drained volume was measured 3, 6, 12, 24, and 48 h after TKR, and thereafter both groups were compared. RESULTS: Regarding the hematocrit, there were no differences between groups in measured periods (24, 48, and 72 h after surgery. The total bleeding measured at the suction drains within 48 h was higher in Group II, with a statistically significant difference (p = 0.005; in the first 24 h, there was major bleeding in Group II (mean 893 mL, with a significant difference (p = 0.004. Between 24 and 48 h, there was no statistically significant difference in both groups (p = 0.710. The total estimated bleeding was higher in Group I, with mean of 463 mL, versus 409 mL in Group II, with no statistical significance (p = 0.394. CONCLUSIONS: Bleeding was higher in the group that used the 4.8 mm gauge suction drain, with no differences in hematocrit and estimated blood loss.

  4. Reduced Operating Time but Not Blood Loss With Cruciate Retaining Total Knee Arthroplasty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermesan, Dinu; Trocan, Ilie; Prejbeanu, Radu; Poenaru, Dan V; Haragus, Horia; Gratian, Damian; Marrelli, Massimo; Inchingolo, Francesco; Caprio, Monica; Cagiano, Raffaele; Tatullo, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Background There is no consensus regarding the use of retaining or replacing cruciate implants for patients with limited deformity who undergo a total knee replacement. Scope of this paper is to evaluate whether a cruciate sparing total knee replacement could have a reduced operating time compared to a posterior stabilized implant. Methods For this purpose, we performed a randomized study on 50 subjects. All procedures were performed by a single surgeon in the same conditions to minimize bias and only knees with a less than 20 varus deviation and/or maximum 15° fixed flexion contracture were included. Results Surgery time was significantly shorter with the cruciate retaining implant (P = 0.0037). The mean duration for the Vanguard implant was 68.9 (14.7) and for the NexGen II Legacy was 80.2 (11.3). A higher range of motion, but no significant Knee Society Scores at 6 months follow-up, was used as controls. Conclusions In conclusion, both implants had the potential to assure great outcomes. However, if a decision has to be made, choosing a cruciate retaining procedure could significantly reduce the surgical time. When performed under tourniquet, this gain does not lead to reduced blood loss. PMID:25584102

  5. Stellar model chromospheres. VI - Empirical estimates of the chromospheric radiative losses of late-type stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linsky, J. L.; Ayres, T. R.

    1978-01-01

    A method is developed for estimating the nonradiative heating of stellar chromospheres by measuring the net radiative losses in strong Fraunhofer line cores. This method is applied to observations of the Mg II resonance lines in a sample of 32 stars including the sun. At most a small dependence of chromospheric nonradiative heating on stellar surface gravity is found, which is contrary to the large effect predicted by recent calculations based on acoustic-heating theories.

  6. Change in fat-free mass assessed by bioelectrical impedance, total body potassium and dual energy X-ray absorptiometry during prolonged weight loss

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendel, H W; Gotfredsen, A; Højgaard, L

    1996-01-01

    A total of 16 obese women (body mass index (BMI) 30-43 kg m(-2)) participated in a weight reduction study. Before and after a weight loss of 11.7 +/- 7.4 kg (mean +/- SD), body composition was assessed by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and total body potassium counting (TBK). These measu...

  7. Water loss in Mafraq governorate, Jordan

    OpenAIRE

    Al-Ansari, Nadhir; Al-Oun, Salem; Hadad, Wafa; Knutsson, Sven

    2013-01-01

    Jordan is located in the Middle East and covers an area of 89,342 km2. The total population of Jordan is 6,508,271. Jordan is rapidly facing a severe water supply crisis due to greater demands on a finite quantity of available water. If current trends continue, it has been estimated that the country will experience a chronic water shortage by 2020. Despite these shortages, water loss in the distribution network is relatively high where it reaches 46%. Mafraq Governorate has the maximum water ...

  8. Estimation of the total number of mast cells in the human umbilical cord. A methodological study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engberg Damsgaard, T M; Windelborg Nielsen, B; Sørensen, Flemming Brandt

    1992-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to estimate the total number of mast cells in the human umbilical cord. Using 50 microns-thick paraffin sections, made from a systematic random sample of umbilical cord, the total number of mast cells per cord was estimated using a combination of the optical...... disector and fractionated sampling. The mast cell of the human umbilical cord was found in Wharton's jelly, most frequently in close proximity to the three blood vessels. No consistent pattern of variation in mast cell numbers from the fetal end of the umbilical cord towards the placenta was seen....... The total number of mast cells found in the umbilical cord was 5,200,000 (median), range 2,800,000-16,800,000 (n = 7), that is 156,000 mast cells per gram umbilical cord (median), range 48,000-267,000. Thus, the umbilical cord constitutes an adequate source of mast cells for further investigation...

  9. Total glucosides of paeony prevents juxta-articular bone loss in experimental arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Chen Chao; You, Fan Tian; Mei, Li Yu; Jian, Sun; Qiang, Chen Yong

    2013-07-21

    Total glucosides of paeony (TGP) is a biologically active compound extracted from Paeony root. TGP has been used in rheumatoid arthritis therapy for many years. However, the mechanism by which TGP prevents bone loss has been less explored. TGP was orally administered for 3 months to New Zealand rabbits with antigen-induced arthritis (AIA). Digital x-ray knee images and bone mineral density (BMD) measurements of the subchondral knee bone were performed before sacrifice. Chondrocytes were observed using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Histological analysis and mRNA expression of receptor activator of nuclear factor-B ligand (RANKL) and osteoprotegerin (OPG) were evaluated in joint tissues. The BMD value in TGP rabbits was significantly higher compared with that seen in the AIA model rabbits. In addition, the subchondral bone plate was almost completely preserved by TGP treatment, while there was a decrease in bone plate integrity in AIA rabbits. There was less damage to the chondrocytes of the TGP treated group. Immunohistochemical examination of the TGP group showed that a higher percentage of TGP treated chondrocytes expressed OPG as compared to the chondrocytes isolated from AIA treated animals. In contrast, RANKL expression was significantly decreased in the TGP treated group compared to the AIA group. In support of the immunohistochemistry data, the expression of RANKL mRNA was decreased and OPG mRNA expression was enhanced in the TGP group when compared to that of the AIA model group. These results reveal that TGP suppresses juxta-articular osteoporosis and prevents subchondral bone loss. The decreased RANKL and increased OPG expression seen in TGP treated animals could explain how administration of TGP maintains higher BMD.

  10. [Total dream loss secondary to left temporo-occipital brain injury].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poza, J J; Martí Massó, J F

    2006-04-01

    Recently the case of a woman who reported cessation of dreaming after a bilateral PCA stroke but without REM sleep loss has been reported, suggesting that deep bilateral occipital lobe damage including the right inferior lingual gyrus may represent the "minimal lesion extension" necessary for dream loss. We report the case of a 24-year-old man who ceased dreaming after a unilateral left temporo- occipital hematoma. The polysomnographic characteristics in rapid eyes movements (REM) sleep were otherwise normal. Our patient demonstrates that a unilateral left temporo-occipital injury could be sufficient for losing dreams.

  11. Estimation of steady-state and transcient power distributions for the RELAP analyses of the 1963 loss-of-flow and loss-of-pressure tests at BR2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dionne, B.; Tzanos, C.P.

    2011-01-01

    To support the safety analyses required for the conversion of the Belgian Reactor 2 (BR2) from highly-enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel, the simulation of a number of loss-of-flow tests, with or without loss of pressure, has been undertaken. These tests were performed at BR2 in 1963 and used instrumented fuel assemblies (FAs) with thermocouples (TC) imbedded in the cladding as well as probes to measure the FAs power on the basis of their coolant temperature rise. The availability of experimental data for these tests offers an opportunity to better establish the credibility of the RELAP5-3D model and methodology used in the conversion analysis. In order to support the HEU to LEU conversion safety analyses of the BR2 reactor, RELAP simulations of a number of loss-of-flow/loss-of-pressure tests have been undertaken. Preliminary analyses showed that the conservative power distributions used historically in the BR2 RELAP model resulted in a significant overestimation of the peak cladding temperature during the transient. Therefore, it was concluded that better estimates of the steady-state and decay power distributions were needed to accurately predict the cladding temperatures measured during the tests and establish the credibility of the RELAP model and methodology. The new approach ('best estimate' methodology) uses the MCNP5, ORIGEN-2 and BERYL codes to obtain steady-state and decay power distributions for the BR2 core during the tests A/400/1, C/600/3 and F/400/1. This methodology can be easily extended to simulate any BR2 core configuration. Comparisons with measured peak cladding temperatures showed a much better agreement when power distributions obtained with the new methodology are used.

  12. Productivity losses attributable to untreated chlamydial infection and associated pelvic inflammatory disease in reproductive-aged women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blandford, John M; Gift, Thomas L

    2006-10-01

    The productivity losses attributable to disease-related morbidity and mortality impose a burden on society in general and on employers in particular. A reliable assessment of the productivity losses associated with untreated infection with Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) would complement earlier work on direct medical costs and contribute to an estimate of the full cost of chlamydial disease. The goal of this study was to estimate the discounted lifetime productivity losses attributable to untreated chlamydial infection in reproductive-aged women. We developed a cost model using Monte Carlo methods to estimate the lifetime discounted productivity losses attributable to untreated lower genital tract Ct infection among reproductive-aged women. The model considered the impact of disability resulting from acute pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) associated with untreated Ct infection and from the sequelae of acute PID, including chronic pelvic pain, ectopic pregnancy, and infertility. To accommodate disparate Ct infection rates and labor market characteristics across age groups, we matched age-based risk factors for Ct infection with labor market patterns. Data sources included the 2001 National Chlamydia Surveillance Data, the 2001 Current Population Survey, and published literature. Estimates indicate that the mean weighted productivity losses per untreated Ct infection were approximately US dollars 130 (in year 2001 dollars). Mean weighted productivity losses per case of acute PID were estimated at US dollars 649. Estimated productivity losses were highly correlated with age, reflecting age-dependent differences in labor market characteristics. The productivity losses attributable to untreated infection with Ct and to sequelae of this infection form a substantial portion of the total economic burden of disease. Effective programs to prevent chlamydial infection and effective screening, diagnosis, and treatment of Ct-infected women may reduce productivity losses and

  13. Tranexamic acid reduces intraoperative occult blood loss and tourniquet time in obese knee osteoarthritis patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Yutong; Li, Zhirui; Gong, Ke; An, Xiao; Dong, Jiyuan; Tang, Peifu

    2018-01-01

    Obesity can result in increased blood loss, which is correlated with poor prognosis in total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Clinical application of tranexamic acid is effective in reducing blood loss in TKA. However, most previous studies focused on the effect of tranexamic acid in the whole population, neglecting patients with specific health conditions, such as obesity. We hypothesized that tranexamic acid would reduce blood loss to a greater extent in obese patients than in those of normal weight. A total of 304 patients with knee osteoarthritis treated with TKA from October 2013 to March 2015 were separated into tranexamic, non-tranexamic, obese, and non-obese groups. The demographic characteristics, surgical indices, and hematological indices were all recorded. We first investigated the ability of intravenous tranexamic acid to reduce intraoperative blood loss in knee osteoarthritis patients undergoing unilateral TKA. Second, we performed subgroup analysis to compare the effects of tranexamic acid between obese and non-obese patients separately. Of the 304 patients, 146 (52.0%) received tranexamic acid and 130 (42.8%) were obese. In the analysis of the whole group, both the actual and occult blood loss volume were lower in the tranexamic acid group (both P tranexamic acid group ( P tranexamic acid was shown to reduce theoretical and actual blood loss in both the obese and non-obese groups ( P Tranexamic acid reduced occult blood loss and tourniquet time in the obese group ( P 0.05). Tranexamic acid can reduce occult blood loss and tourniquet time in obese patients to a greater extent than in patients of normal weight. Therefore, obese knee osteoarthritis patients undergoing TKA can benefit more from tranexamic acid.

  14. CO2 Losses from Terrestrial Organic Matter through Photodegradation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutledge, S.; Campbell, D. I.; Baldocchi, D. D.; Schipper, L. A.

    2010-12-01

    Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) is the sum of CO2 uptake by plants and CO2 losses from both living plants and dead organic matter. In all but a few ecosystem scale studies on terrestrial carbon cycling, losses of CO2 from dead organic matter are assumed to be the result of microbial respiration alone. Here we provide evidence for an alternative, previously largely underestimated mechanism for ecosystem-scale CO2 emissions. The process of photodegradation, the direct breakdown of organic matter by solar radiation, was found to contribute substantially to the ecosystem scale CO2 losses at both a bare peatland in New Zealand, and a summer-dead grassland in California. Comparisons of daytime eddy covariance (EC) data with data collected at the same time using an opaque chamber and the CO2 soil gradient technique, or with night-time EC data collected during similar moisture and temperature conditions were used to quantify the direct effect of exposure of organic matter to solar radiation. At a daily scale, photodegradation contributed up to 62% and 92% of summer mid-day CO2 fluxes at the de-vegetated peatland and at the grassland during the dry season, respectively. Irradiance-induced CO2 losses were estimated to be 19% of the total annual CO2 loss at the peatland, and almost 60% of the dry season CO2 loss at the grassland. Small-scale measurements using a transparent chamber confirmed that CO2 emissions from air-dried peat and grass occurred within seconds of exposure to light when microbial activity was inhibited. Our findings imply that photodegradation could be important for many ecosystems with exposed soil organic matter, litter and/or standing dead material. Potentially affected ecosystems include sparsely vegetated arid and semi-arid ecosystems (e.g. shrublands, savannahs and other grasslands), bare burnt areas, agricultural sites after harvest or cultivation (especially if crop residues are left on the surface), deciduous forests after leaf fall, or ecosystems

  15. An improved iron loss estimation for permanent magnet brushless machines

    CERN Document Server

    Fang, D

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents an improved approach for predicting iron losses in permanent magnet brushless machines. The new approach is based on the fundamental concept that eddy current losses are proportional to the square of the time rate of change of flux density. Expressions are derived for predicting hysteresis and eddy current losses in the stator teeth and yoke. The so-called anomalous or excess losses, caused by the induced eddy current concentration around moving magnetic domain walls and neglected in the conventional core loss calculation, are also included in the proposed approach. In addition, the model is also capable of accounting for the stator skewing, if present. The core losses obtained from the proposed approach are compared with those measured on an existing PM motor at several operating speeds, showing very good agreement. (14 refs).

  16. Total process surveillance: (TOPS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Millar, J.H.P.

    1992-01-01

    A Total Process Surveillance system is under development which can provide, in real-time, additional process information from a limited number of raw measurement signals. This is achieved by using a robust model based observer to generate estimates of the process' internal states. The observer utilises the analytical reduncancy among a diverse range of transducers and can thus accommodate off-normal conditions which lead to transducer loss or damage. The modular hierarchical structure of the system enables the maximum amount of information to be assimilated from the available instrument signals no matter how diverse. This structure also constitutes a data reduction path thus reducing operator cognitive overload from a large number of varying, and possibly contradictory, raw plant signals. (orig.)

  17. Real Time Intraoperative Monitoring of Blood Loss with a Novel Tablet Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharareh, Behnam; Woolwine, Spencer; Satish, Siddarth; Abraham, Peter; Schwarzkopf, Ran

    2015-01-01

    Introduction : Real-time monitoring of blood loss is critical in fluid management. Visual estimation remains the standard of care in estimating blood loss, yet is demonstrably inaccurate. Photometric analysis, which is the referenced “gold-standard” for measuring blood loss, is both time-consuming and costly. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of a novel tablet-monitoring device for measurement of Hb loss during orthopaedic procedures. Methods : This is a prospective study of 50 patients in a consecutive series of joint arthroplasty cases. The novel System with Feature Extraction Technology was used to measure the amount of Hb contained within surgical sponges intra-operatively. The system’s measures were then compared with those obtained via gravimetric method and photometric analysis. Accuracy was evaluated using linear regression and Bland-Altman analysis. Results : Our results showed a significant positive correlation between Triton tablet system and photometric analysis with respect to intra-operative hemoglobin and blood loss at 0.92 and 0.91, respectively. Discussion : This novel system can accurately determine Hb loss contained within surgical sponges. We believe that this user-friendly software can be used for measurement of total intraoperative blood loss and thus aid in a more accurate fluid management protocols during orthopaedic surgical procedures. PMID:26401167

  18. Comparative study of topical vs. intravenous tranexamic acid regarding blood loss in total knee arthroplasty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ari Zekcer

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To compare topical vs. intravenous tranexamic acid (TA in total knee arthroplasty regarding blood loss and transfusion., Methods: Ninety patients were randomized to receive TA intravenously (20 mg/kg in 100 mL of saline; group IV, topically (1.5 g in 50 mL of saline, sprayed over the operated site, before release of the tourniquet; topical group, or intravenous saline (100 mL with anesthesia; control group. The volume of drained blood in 48, h, the amount of transfused blood, and the serum levels of hemoglobin and hematocrit before and after surgery were evaluated., Results: The groups were similar for gender, age, weight, laterality, and preoperative hemoglobin and hematocrit levels (p> 0.2. The hemoglobin level dropped in all groups when comparing the preoperative and the 48-h evaluations: the control group decreased 3.8 mg/dL on average, while the IV, group had a decrease of 3.0, and the topical group, of 3.2 (p= 0.019. The difference between the control and IV, groups was confirmed by Bonferroni test (p= 0.020. The difference between the control group and the topical group was not significant (p= 0.130, although there was less reduction in hemoglobin in the topical group; the comparison between the IV, group and the topical group was also not significant (p= 1.000. Conclusion: Using topic and IV, tranexamic acid decreased blood loss and the need for transfusion in total knee arthroplasty. Topical application showed results similar to IV use regarding the need for blood transfusion, but without the possible side effects of IV, administration.

  19. Gis Approach to Estimation of the Total Phosphorous Transfer in the Pilica River Lowland Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magnuszewski Artur

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the Pilica River catchment (central Poland is analyzed with a focus on understanding the total phosphorous transfer along the river system which also contains the large artificial Sulejów Reservoir. The paper presents a GIS method for estimating the total phosphorous (TP load from proxy data representing sub-catchment land use and census data. The modelled load of TP is compared to the actual transfer of TP in the Pilica River system. The results shows that the metrics of connectivity between river system and dwelling areas as well as settlement density in the sub-catchments are useful predictors of the total phosphorous load. The presence of a large reservoir in the middle course of the river can disrupt nutrient transport along a river continuum by trapping and retaining suspended sediment and its associated TP load. Analysis of the indirect estimation of TP loads with the GIS analysis can be useful for identifying beneficial reservoir locations in a catchment. The study has shown that the Sulejów Reservoir has been located in a subcatchment with a largest load of the TP, and this feature helps determine the problem of reservoir eutrphication

  20. Simulation of total loss of feed water in ATLAS test facility using SPACE code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Minhee; Kim, Seyun [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of). Central Research Inst.

    2017-08-15

    A total loss of feedwater (TLOFW) with additional failures in ATLAS test facility was analyzed using SPACE code, which is an advanced thermal-hydraulic system analysis code developed by the Korea nuclear industry. Partial failure of the safety injection pumps (SIPs) and the pilot-operated safety relief valves (POSRVs) of pressurizer were selected as additional failures. In order to assess the capability of SPACE code, partial failure was modeled, and compared with results of OECD-ATLAS A3.1 results. Reasonably good agreement with major thermal-hydraulic parameters was obtained by analyzing the transient behavior. From the results, this indicated that SPACE code has capabilities to design extension conditions, and feed and bleed operation using POSRVs and SIPs were effective for RCS cooling capability during TLOFW.

  1. Origin of Human Losses due to the Emilia Romagna, Italy, M5.9 Earthquake of 20 May 2012 and their Estimate in Real Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyss, M.

    2012-12-01

    Estimating human losses within less than an hour worldwide requires assumptions and simplifications. Earthquake for which losses are accurately recorded after the event provide clues concerning the influence of error sources. If final observations and real time estimates differ significantly, data and methods to calculate losses may be modified or calibrated. In the case of the earthquake in the Emilia Romagna region with M5.9 on May 20th, the real time epicenter estimates of the GFZ and the USGS differed from the ultimate location by the INGV by 6 and 9 km, respectively. Fatalities estimated within an hour of the earthquake by the loss estimating tool QLARM, based on these two epicenters, numbered 20 and 31, whereas 7 were reported in the end, and 12 would have been calculated if the ultimate epicenter released by INGV had been used. These four numbers being small, do not differ statistically. Thus, the epicenter errors in this case did not appreciably influence the results. The QUEST team of INGV has reported intensities with I ≥ 5 at 40 locations with accuracies of 0.5 units and QLARM estimated I > 4.5 at 224 locations. The differences between the observed and calculated values at the 23 common locations show that the calculation in the 17 instances with significant differences were too high on average by one unit. By assuming higher than average attenuation within standard bounds for worldwide loss estimates, the calculated intensities model the observed ones better: For 57% of the locations, the difference was not significant; for the others, the calculated intensities were still somewhat higher than the observed ones. Using a generic attenuation law with higher than average attenuation, but not tailored to the region, the number of estimated fatalities becomes 12 compared to 7 reported ones. Thus, attenuation in this case decreased the discrepancy between observed and reported death by approximately a factor of two. The source of the fatalities is

  2. The Expected Loss in the Discretization of Multistage Stochastic Programming Problems - Estimation and Convergence Rate

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šmíd, Martin

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 165, č. 1 (2009), s. 29-45 ISSN 0254-5330 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/04/1294 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : multistage stochastic programming problems * approximation * discretization * Monte Carlo Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.961, year: 2009 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2008/E/smid-the expected loss in the discretization of multistage stochastic programming problems - estimation and convergence rate.pdf

  3. Prevalence of Various Reproductive Disorders and Economic Losses Caused by Genital Prolapse in Buffaloes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasheed A. Rabbani, I. Ahmad*, L. A. Lodhi, N. Ahmad and G. Muhammad1

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study was conducted to investigate the prevalence of various reproductive disorders and to estimate the economic losses due to genital prolapse in buffaloes in Sir Shamir area of District Faisalabad, Pakistan. The survey was conducted in 8 villages during the 12 months period from June 2005 to May 2006 and the data from 400 farmers (50 farmers from each village were collected. The total buffalo population of this area was 7,785, out of which 2,135 (27.42% animals were included in the study. The overall prevalence of reproductive disorders in buffaloes was recorded as 46.18%. Among all the reproductive disorders, repeat breeding showed the highest prevalence (15.69%, followed by anestrous (9.74%, genital prolapse (7.73%, abortion (5.99%, retained placenta (2.58%, uterine torsion (2.39% and dystocia (2.06%. The total economic losses due to genital prolapse in buffaloes in eight villages during the period of study were estimated to be Rs. 4,59,500/- Among these, the highest losses were due to mortality of dam (39.17%, followed by milk losses (25.14%, service charges (21.33% and medicine cost (14.36%. Thus, repeat breeding, anoestrus and genital prolapse seem to be the major reproductive problems in buffaloes in the study area.

  4. Motor unit number estimation in the quantitative assessment of severity and progression of motor unit loss in Hirayama disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Chaojun; Zhu, Yu; Zhu, Dongqing; Lu, Feizhou; Xia, Xinlei; Jiang, Jianyuan; Ma, Xiaosheng

    2017-06-01

    To investigate motor unit number estimation (MUNE) as a method to quantitatively evaluate severity and progression of motor unit loss in Hirayama disease (HD). Multipoint incremental MUNE was performed bilaterally on both abductor digiti minimi and abductor pollicis brevis muscles in 46 patients with HD and 32 controls, along with handgrip strength examination. MUNE was re-evaluated approximately 1year after initial examination in 17 patients with HD. The MUNE values were significantly lower in all the tested muscles in the HD group (Pdisease duration (Pmotor unit loss in patients with HD within approximately 1year (P4years. A reduction in the functioning motor units was found in patients with HD compared with that in controls, even in the early asymptomatic stages. Moreover, the motor unit loss in HD progresses gradually as the disease advances. These results have provided evidence for the application of MUNE in estimating the reduction of motor unit in HD and confirming the validity of MUNE for tracking the progression of HD in a clinical setting. Copyright © 2017 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. ESTIMATING ANNUAL SOIL LOSS BY WATER EROSION IN THE MIDDLE PRUT PLAIN, REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TUDOR CASTRAVEŢ

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Estimating annual soil loss by water erosion in the middle Prut Plain, Republic of Moldova. Modern technology has provided efficient tools such as advanced models and Geographic Information Systems to facilitate decision making for environmental management. Studies at this subject are available in literature, ranging from those that use a simple model such as USLE to others of a more sophisticated nature. In this study the model selected (modified Universal Soil Loss Equation – USLE and the case itself is kept simple due to significant limitations in data on land processes. An effective investigation of soil loss by using GIS – USLE integration requires spatially distributed data on several parameters describing the terrain surface. Such parameters include topography, rainfall characteristics, soil types, vegetation, land use, and the similar. In Republic of Moldova data on most of these parameters are collected often on a local or individual basis, and therefore, a well-organized regional or basin-wide database is not available. In the Republic of Moldova soil erosion is often as high as 30 tons/ha/year and more than 1.4*106 ha run a potential risk of erosion (Summer & Diernhof, 2003. The model estimated an annual quantity of soil eroded ranging over the Prut River tributaries watersheds between the mean values of 6.2 and 20.4 t/ha/yr. Much of the areas are within the range 10-20 t/ha/yr. The highest values of the quantity of eroded soil is carried out on strong inclined slopes corresponding to areas with agricultural lands and herbaceous vegetation. The results have shown that GIS can be effectively used to investigate critical regions within a basin with respect to erosion.

  6. Experimental study of head loss and filtration for LOCA debris

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, D.V.; Souto, F.J.

    1996-02-01

    A series of controlled experiments were conducted to obtain head loss and filtration characteristics of debris beds formed of NUKON trademark fibrous fragments, and obtain data to validate the semi-theoretical head loss model developed in NUREG/CR-6224. A thermally insulated closed-loop test set-up was used to conduct experiments using beds formed of fibers only and fibers intermixed with particulate debris. A total of three particulate mixes were used to simulate the particulate debris. The head loss data were obtained for theoretical fiber bed thicknesses of 0.125 inches to 4.0 inches; approach velocities of 0.15 to 1.5 ft/s; temperatures of 75 F and 125 F; and sludge-to-fiber nominal concentration ratios of 0 to 60. Concentration measurements obtained during the first flushing cycle were used to estimate the filtration efficiencies of the debris beds. For test conditions where the beds are fairly uniform, the head loss data were predictable within an acceptable accuracy range by the semi-theoretical model. The model was equally applicable for both pure fiber beds and the mixed beds. Typically the model over-predicted the head losses for very thin beds and for thin beds at high sludge-to-fiber mass ratios. This is attributable to the non-uniformity of such debris beds. In this range the correlation can be interpreted to provide upper bound estimates of head loss. This is pertinent for loss of coolant accidents in boiling water reactors

  7. Goats reinfected with Toxoplasma gondii: loss of viable prolificacy and gross revenue

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. M. Silva

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACTWe determined the reproductive parameters and clinical disorders in pregnant goats infected and reinfected with Toxoplasma gondii, and posteriorly the loss of gross revenue due to congenital toxoplasmosis was estimated. Of the 25 non-pregnant females negative for T. gondii, 20 were orally inoculated (ME 49 strain and of these, 15 pregnant females chronically infected were orally reinoculated (VEG strain with T. gondii oocysts. Five groups were formed (n=5: GI, GII and GIII (reinoculations at 40, 80 and 120 days of gestation, respectively, GIV (inoculation and GV (no inoculation. Clinical and serological exams were performed on days 0 (prior to inoculation, 3, 6 9, 15 and 21 and every 7 days post-inoculation. Exams were also performed on day 3 and every 7 days post-reinoculation. Reproductive management was performed on all females and initiated when the females infected displayed IgG titers IFAT<1,024. From the average prolificacy indexes of each experimental group were estimated: total production of kilograms of live weight (total kg LW of goats for slaughter, gross revenue and loss of gross revenue in U.S. dollars (US$, designed for a herd of 1,000 matrices. The unviable prolificacy indexes were 0.8 (GI, 1.2 (GII and 0.2 (GIII. Clinical disorders affected 57.1% (GI, 75.0% (GII and 16.7% (GIII of the offspring of goats reinfected with T. gondii. Congenital toxoplasmosis in goats reinfected resulted in the loss of 26.5% of gross revenues, being GI (US$ 10,577.60 or 57.1% and GII (US$ 12,693.12 or 60% holders of the highest values and percentages of economic losses. It was found that congenital toxoplasmosis reinfection cause clinical disorders in goats chronically infected with T. gondii and their offspring with birth of unviable animals and loss of gross revenue, at different stages of pregnancy (40, 80 and 120 days of gestation, being in the initial and intermediate stages of pregnancy the largest estimates of these losses.

  8. Total Body Capacitance for Estimating Human Basal Metabolic Rate in an Egyptian Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. Abdel-Mageed, Samir; I. Mohamed, Ehab

    2016-01-01

    Determining basal metabolic rate (BMR) is important for estimating total energy needs in the human being yet, concerns have been raised regarding the suitability of sex-specific equations based on age and weight for its calculation on an individual or population basis. It has been shown that body cell mass (BCM) is the body compartment responsible for BMR. The objectives of this study were to investigate the relationship between total body capacitance (TBC), which is considered as an expression for BCM, and BMR and to develop a formula for calculating BMR in comparison with widely used equations. Fifty healthy nonsmoking male volunteers [mean age (± SD): 24.93 ± 4.15 year and body mass index (BMI): 25.63 ± 3.59 kg/m2] and an equal number of healthy nonsmoking females matched for age and BMI were recruited for the study. TBC and BMR were measured for all participants using octopolar bioelectric impedance analysis and indirect calorimetry techniques, respectively. A significant regressing equation based on the covariates: sex, weight, and TBC for estimating BMR was derived (R=0.96, SEE=48.59 kcal, and P<0.0001), which will be useful for nutritional and health status assessment for both individuals and populations. PMID:27127453

  9. Urinary Concentrations of Phthalate Metabolites and Pregnancy Loss Among Women Conceiving with Medically Assisted Reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messerlian, Carmen; Wylie, Blair J; Mínguez-Alarcón, Lidia; Williams, Paige L; Ford, Jennifer B; Souter, Irene C; Calafat, Antonia M; Hauser, Russ

    2016-11-01

    Animal studies demonstrate that several phthalates are embryofetotoxic and are associated with increased pregnancy loss and malformations. Results from human studies on phthalates and pregnancy loss are inconsistent. We examined pregnancy loss prospectively in relation to urinary phthalate metabolite concentrations among women undergoing medically assisted reproduction. We used data from 256 women conceiving 303 pregnancies recruited between 2004 and 2012 from the Massachusetts General Hospital Fertility Center. We quantified 11 phthalate metabolite concentrations and calculated the molar sum of four di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) metabolites (ΣDEHP). We estimated risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals for biochemical loss and total pregnancy loss (assisted reproduction.

  10. The burden of mortality with costs in productivity loss from occupational cancer in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binazzi, Alessandra; Scarselli, Alberto; Marinaccio, Alessandro

    2013-11-01

    The costs of productivity loss due to occupational cancer mortality are rarely investigated. An estimate of occupational cancer deaths in Italy in 2006 and an approximation of the resultant costs from medical and non-medical expenditures together with figures of remuneration lost are provided. Occupational cancer deaths, obtained from the application of the attributable fraction (AF) to mortality data (source: Italian National Institute of Statistics), were used to calculate the Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLLs), the Potential Years of Working Life Lost (PYWLLs) and the costs of the loss of productive life. The health care costs for any cancer was applied to the estimated number of occupational cancer cases to obtain the total cost. Around 8,000-8,500 deaths/year from occupational cancer are estimated to occur in Italy, corresponding to 170,000 PYLLs and more than 16,000 PYWLLs, leading to around 360,000,000 euros in indirect economic loss. Health care costs of occupational cancer are estimated at 456,000,000 euros. Occupational cancer is of major concern in terms of mortality and economic productivity loss. Preventive efforts in evaluating ongoing risks and current exposures are strongly recommended to health policy-makers. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. A phylogenetic analysis of basal metabolism, total evaporative water loss, and life-history among foxes from desert and mesic regions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Williams, JB; Munoz-Garcia, A; Ostrowski, S; Tieleman, BI

    We measured basal metabolic rate (BMR) and total evaporative water loss (TEWL) of species of foxes that exist on the Arabian Peninsula, Blanford's fox (Vulpes cana) and two subspecies of Red fox (Vulpes vulpes). Combining these data with that on other canids from the literature, we searched for

  12. Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yingbin; Jiao, Yan

    2015-05-01

    The instantaneous total mortality rate ( Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis, abundance and catch forecast, and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method, the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time, but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant, and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z, and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates (the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore, the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them, but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997, and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.

  13. Fitness-related differences in the rate of whole-body total heat loss in exercising young healthy women are heat-load dependent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamarche, Dallon T; Notley, Sean R; Poirier, Martin P; Kenny, Glen P

    2018-03-01

    What is the central question of this study? Aerobic fitness modulates heat loss, albeit the heat load at which fitness-related differences occur in young healthy women remains unclear. What is the main finding and its importance? We demonstrate using direct calorimetry that fitness modulates heat loss in a heat-load dependent manner, with differences occurring between young women of low and high fitness and matched physical characteristics when the metabolic heat load is at least 400 W in hot, dry conditions. Although fitness has been known for some time to modulate heat loss, our findings define the metabolic heat load at which fitness-related differences occur. Aerobic fitness has recently been shown to alter heat loss capacity in a heat-load dependent manner in young men. However, given that sex-related differences in heat loss capacity exist, it is unclear whether this response is consistent in women. We therefore assessed whole-body total heat loss in young (21 ± 3 years old) healthy women matched for physical characteristics, but with low (low-fit; 35.8 ± 4.5 ml O 2  kg -1  min -1 ) or high aerobic fitness (high-fit; 53.1 ± 5.1 ml O 2  kg -1  min -1 ; both n = 8; indexed by peak oxygen consumption), during three 30 min bouts of cycling performed at increasing rates of metabolic heat production of 250 (Ex1), 325 (Ex2) and 400 W (Ex3), each separated by a 15 min recovery, in hot, dry conditions (40°C, 11% relative humidity). Whole-body total heat loss (evaporative ± dry heat exchange) and metabolic heat production were measured using direct and indirect calorimetry, respectively. Body heat content was measured as the temporal summation of heat production and loss. Total heat loss did not differ during Ex1 (low-fit, 215 ± 16 W; high-fit, 231 ± 20 W; P > 0.05) and Ex2 (low-fit, 278 ± 15 W; high-fit, 301 ± 20 W; P > 0.05), but was lower in the low-fit (316 ± 21 W) compared with the high-fit women (359 ± 32

  14. Predicting Loss-of-Control Boundaries Toward a Piloting Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Jonathan; Stepanyan, Vahram; Krishnakumar, Kalmanje

    2012-01-01

    This work presents an approach to predicting loss-of-control with the goal of providing the pilot a decision aid focused on maintaining the pilot's control action within predicted loss-of-control boundaries. The predictive architecture combines quantitative loss-of-control boundaries, a data-based predictive control boundary estimation algorithm and an adaptive prediction method to estimate Markov model parameters in real-time. The data-based loss-of-control boundary estimation algorithm estimates the boundary of a safe set of control inputs that will keep the aircraft within the loss-of-control boundaries for a specified time horizon. The adaptive prediction model generates estimates of the system Markov Parameters, which are used by the data-based loss-of-control boundary estimation algorithm. The combined algorithm is applied to a nonlinear generic transport aircraft to illustrate the features of the architecture.

  15. Weight loss and weight loss maintenance efficacy of a novel weight loss program: The retrospective RNPC® cohort

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorning, Tanja Kongerslev; Fabre, Odile; Legrand, Rémy

    2018-01-01

    or obese patients treated in 54 RNPC® weight loss clinics in France. Results: A total of 10,809 (89%) patients completed the initial weight loss phase and 2996 (25%) completed the full program. Median weight loss percentage was 10.7% (Interquartile range [IQR]: 5.8; 16.5) after a median of 105 days (IQR...

  16. Leakage Detection and Estimation Algorithm for Loss Reduction in Water Piping Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazeem B. Adedeji

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Water loss through leaking pipes constitutes a major challenge to the operational service of water utilities. In recent years, increasing concern about the financial loss and environmental pollution caused by leaking pipes has been driving the development of efficient algorithms for detecting leakage in water piping networks. Water distribution networks (WDNs are disperse in nature with numerous number of nodes and branches. Consequently, identifying the segment(s of the network and the exact leaking pipelines connected to this segment(s where higher background leakage outflow occurs is a challenging task. Background leakage concerns the outflow from small cracks or deteriorated joints. In addition, because they are diffuse flow, they are not characterised by quick pressure drop and are not detectable by measuring instruments. Consequently, they go unreported for a long period of time posing a threat to water loss volume. Most of the existing research focuses on the detection and localisation of burst type leakages which are characterised by a sudden pressure drop. In this work, an algorithm for detecting and estimating background leakage in water distribution networks is presented. The algorithm integrates a leakage model into a classical WDN hydraulic model for solving the network leakage flows. The applicability of the developed algorithm is demonstrated on two different water networks. The results of the tested networks are discussed and the solutions obtained show the benefits of the proposed algorithm. A noteworthy evidence is that the algorithm permits the detection of critical segments or pipes of the network experiencing higher leakage outflow and indicates the probable pipes of the network where pressure control can be performed. However, the possible position of pressure control elements along such critical pipes will be addressed in future work.

  17. A general approach for the estimation of loss of life due to natural and technological disasters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonkman, S.N.; Lentz, A.; Vrijling, J.K.

    2010-01-01

    In assessing the safety of engineering systems in the context of quantitative risk analysis one of the most important consequence types concerns the loss of life due to accidents and disasters. In this paper, a general approach for loss of life estimation is proposed which includes three elements: (1) the assessment of physical effects associated with the event; (2) determination of the number of exposed persons (taking into account warning and evacuation); and (3) determination of mortality amongst the population exposed. The typical characteristics of and modelling approaches for these three elements are discussed. This paper focuses on 'small probability-large consequences' events within the engineering domain. It is demonstrated how the proposed approach can be applied to various case studies, such as tunnel fires, earthquakes and flood events.

  18. Change in fat-free mass assessed by bioelectrical impedance, total body potassium and dual energy X-ray absorptiometry during prolonged weight loss

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendel, H W; Gotfredsen, A; Højgaard, L

    1996-01-01

    ). These measurements were compared with bioimpedance analysis (BIA) by applying 11 predictive BIA equations published in the literature. Predictive equations for the present study population were developed, with the use of fat-free mass (FFM) as assessed by TBK and DXA as references in multiple regression analysis....... The results of the BIA equations varied widely; FFM was generally overestimated by BIA as compared with DXA and TBK before and after weight loss. During weight loss, the FFM did not change, as estimated by DXA (1.3 +/- 2.3 kg, p > 0.05) and TBK (0.9 +/- 2.9 kg, p > 0.05). The recorded change in impedance (R......) was also insignificant. Three BIA equations from the literature, which were not specific for the degree of obesity in the present study group, predicted changes in FFM (from 0.5 + 3.6 to 2.4 +/- 4.4kg, p > 0.05) that were comparable with those estimated by the reference methods. Eight equations from...

  19. Neither pre-operative education or a minimally invasive procedure have any influence on the recovery time after total hip replacement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biau, David Jean; Porcher, Raphael; Roren, Alexandra; Babinet, Antoine; Rosencher, Nadia; Chevret, Sylvie; Poiraudeau, Serge; Anract, Philippe

    2015-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate pre-operative education versus no education and mini-invasive surgery versus standard surgery to reach complete independence. We conducted a four-arm randomized controlled trial of 209 patients. The primary outcome criterion was the time to reach complete functional independence. Secondary outcomes included the operative time, the estimated total blood loss, the pain level, the dose of morphine, and the time to discharge. There was no significant effect of either education (HR: 1.1; P = 0.77) or mini-invasive surgery (HR: 1.0; 95 %; P = 0.96) on the time to reach complete independence. The mini-invasive surgery group significantly reduced the total estimated blood loss (P = 0.0035) and decreased the dose of morphine necessary for titration in the recovery (P = 0.035). Neither pre-operative education nor mini-invasive surgery reduces the time to reach complete functional independence. Mini-invasive surgery significantly reduces blood loss and the need for morphine consumption.

  20. Estimation of loss of 40K during different cooking procedures of rice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aparna, K.R.; Karunakara, N.; Selvi, B.S.; Joshi, R.M.; Ravi, P.M.

    2008-01-01

    The present regulations on toxic element intake is based on the assumption that 100% of the toxin present in raw materials such as cereals, pulses and vegetables are taken up by human being through ingestion. This is not realistic because of the fact that many of the toxic materials are lost during various cooking processes such as washing, peeling, etc. In order to take into account the loss of radionuclide during cooking, some of the regulatory agencies use Retention Factors (F r ) and Processing Efficiencies (P e ) for impact assessment. In Karnataka, rice is the major dietary item and the cooking procedure varies from place to place. This paper presents the results of estimation of F r and P e for two types of cooking procedures of raw rice and boiled rice commonly used in Karnataka. 40 K is used as tracer in the present study because of its natural abundance, easy detection by gamma ray spectrometry and chemical resemblance with 137 Cs. The concentration of 40 K in raw and processed food was estimated by gamma ray spectrometry using an HPGe detector and F r and P e were estimated. The value of F r ranges from 0.6 to 0.85 and 0.41 to 0.72 for raw rice and boiled rice respectively. Similarly, the values of P e vary from 0.9 to 1 for both types of rice. In the absence of site-specific data for 137 Cs, this data can be used for calculation of 137 Cs in cooked rice during accidental conditions of nuclear installations. (author)

  1. Possibilities and consequences of the Total Cumulative Exergy Loss method in improving the sustainability of power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stougie, Lydia; Kooi, Hedzer J. van der

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The TCExL method can be applied to all kinds of technological systems. • All exergy losses during the lifetime of a technological system are considered. • The results of the TCExL method are independent of time and weighting factors. • Applying the TCExL method can improve the sustainability of power generation. • The system with the lowest TCExL score is not always economically favourable. - Abstract: It is difficult to decide which power generation system is the most sustainable when environmental, economic and social sustainability aspects are taken into account. Problems with conventional environmental sustainability assessment methods are that no consensus exists about the applied models and weighting factors and that exergy losses are not considered. Economic sustainability assessment methods do not lead to results that are independent of time because they are influenced by market developments, while social sustainability assessment methods suffer from the availability and qualitative or semi-quantitative nature of data. Existing exergy analysis methods do not take into account all exergy losses and/or are extended with factors or equations that are not commonly accepted. The new Total Cumulative Exergy Loss (TCExL) method is based on fundamental thermodynamic equations and takes into account all exergy losses caused by a technological system during its life cycle, i.e. internal exergy losses, exergy losses caused by emission abatement and exergy losses related to land use. The development of the TCExL method is presented as well as the application of this method and environmental, economic and social sustainability assessment methods to two case studies: power generation in combination with LNG evaporation and Fossil versus renewable energy sources for power generation. According to the results of the assessments, large differences exist between the environmental sustainability assessment and TCExL methods in the sense that different

  2. Energy Deficit Required for Rapid Weight Loss in Elite Collegiate Wrestlers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondo, Emi; Sagayama, Hiroyuki; Yamada, Yosuke; Shiose, Keisuke; Osawa, Takuya; Motonaga, Keiko; Ouchi, Shiori; Kamei, Akiko; Nakajima, Kohei; Higaki, Yasuki; Tanaka, Hiroaki; Takahashi, Hideyuki; Okamura, Koji

    2018-04-26

    To determine energy density for rapid weight loss (RWL) of weight-classified sports, eight male elite wrestlers were instructed to lose 6% of body mass (BM) within 53 h. Energy deficit during the RWL was calculated by subtracting total energy expenditure (TEE) determined using the doubly labeled water method (DLW) from energy intake (EI) assessed with diet records. It was also estimated from body composition change estimated with the four-component model (4C) and other conventional methods. BM decreased significantly by 4.7 ± 0.5 kg (6.4 ± 0.5%). Total body water loss was the major component of the BM loss (71.0 ± 7.6%). TEE was 9446 ± 1422 kcal, and EI was 2366 ± 1184 kcal during the RWL of 53-h; therefore, the energy deficit was 7080 ± 1525 kcal. Thus, energy density was 1507 ± 279 kcal/kg ∆BM during the RWL, comparable with values obtained using the 4C, three-component model, dual energy X-ray absorptiometry, and stable isotope dilution. Energy density for RWL of wrestlers is lower than that commonly used (7400 or 7700 kcal/kg ΔBM). Although RWL is not recommended, we propose that commonly practiced extreme energy restriction such as 7400 or 7700 kcal/kg ΔBM during RWL appears to be meaningless.

  3. Energy Deficit Required for Rapid Weight Loss in Elite Collegiate Wrestlers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emi Kondo

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available To determine energy density for rapid weight loss (RWL of weight-classified sports, eight male elite wrestlers were instructed to lose 6% of body mass (BM within 53 h. Energy deficit during the RWL was calculated by subtracting total energy expenditure (TEE determined using the doubly labeled water method (DLW from energy intake (EI assessed with diet records. It was also estimated from body composition change estimated with the four-component model (4C and other conventional methods. BM decreased significantly by 4.7 ± 0.5 kg (6.4 ± 0.5%. Total body water loss was the major component of the BM loss (71.0 ± 7.6%. TEE was 9446 ± 1422 kcal, and EI was 2366 ± 1184 kcal during the RWL of 53-h; therefore, the energy deficit was 7080 ± 1525 kcal. Thus, energy density was 1507 ± 279 kcal/kg ∆BM during the RWL, comparable with values obtained using the 4C, three-component model, dual energy X-ray absorptiometry, and stable isotope dilution. Energy density for RWL of wrestlers is lower than that commonly used (7400 or 7700 kcal/kg ΔBM. Although RWL is not recommended, we propose that commonly practiced extreme energy restriction such as 7400 or 7700 kcal/kg ΔBM during RWL appears to be meaningless.

  4. A Sample-Based Forest Monitoring Strategy Using Landsat, AVHRR and MODIS Data to Estimate Gross Forest Cover Loss in Malaysia between 1990 and 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Potapov

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Insular Southeast Asia is a hotspot of humid tropical forest cover loss. A sample-based monitoring approach quantifying forest cover loss from Landsat imagery was implemented to estimate gross forest cover loss for two eras, 1990–2000 and 2000–2005. For each time interval, a probability sample of 18.5 km × 18.5 km blocks was selected, and pairs of Landsat images acquired per sample block were interpreted to quantify forest cover area and gross forest cover loss. Stratified random sampling was implemented for 2000–2005 with MODIS-derived forest cover loss used to define the strata. A probability proportional to x (πpx design was implemented for 1990–2000 with AVHRR-derived forest cover loss used as the x variable to increase the likelihood of including forest loss area in the sample. The estimated annual gross forest cover loss for Malaysia was 0.43 Mha/yr (SE = 0.04 during 1990–2000 and 0.64 Mha/yr (SE = 0.055 during 2000–2005. Our use of the πpx sampling design represents a first practical trial of this design for sampling satellite imagery. Although the design performed adequately in this study, a thorough comparative investigation of the πpx design relative to other sampling strategies is needed before general design recommendations can be put forth.

  5. Thermal hydraulic analysis of aggressive secondary cooldown in small break loss of coolant accident with total loss of high pressure safety injection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, S. J.; Im, H. K.; Yang, J. U.

    2003-01-01

    Recently, Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) has being applied to various fields as a basic technique of Risk-Informed Applications (RIA). To use RIA, the present study focuses on the detailed thermal hydraulic analyses for major accident sequences and success criteria to support a development of PSA model for Korea Standard Nuclear Power plant (KSNP). The primary purpose of the present study is to evaluate the success criteria of Aggressive Secondary Cooldown (ASC) in Small Break Loss Of Coolant Accident (SBLOCA) with total loss of High Pressure Safety Injection (HPSI) and to enhance the understanding of related thermal hydraulic behavior and phenomena. The accident scenario was 2 inch coldleg break LOCA without HPSI, with 1/2 Low Pressure Safety Injection (LPSI), and performing ASC limited by 55.6 .deg. C /hr (100 .deg. F/hr) cooldown rate at 15 minute after reactor trip, which successively reaches the LPSI condition for about 1.5hr after starting ASC operation with the Peak Cladding Temperature (PCT) of the hottest rod below the core damage criteria 1204.4 .deg. C (2200 .deg. F). In the present study, more relaxed success criteria than the previous PSA for KSNP could be generated under an assumption that operator should maintain the adequate ASC operation. However, it is necessary to evaluate uncertainties arisen from the related parameters of the ASC operation

  6. Concentration, flux, and trend estimates with uncertainty for nutrients, chloride, and total suspended solids in tributaries of Lake Champlain, 1990–2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medalie, Laura

    2016-12-20

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New England Interstate Water Pollution Control Commission and the Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation, estimated daily and 9-month concentrations and fluxes of total and dissolved phosphorus, total nitrogen, chloride, and total suspended solids from 1990 (or first available date) through 2014 for 18 tributaries of Lake Champlain. Estimates of concentration and flux, provided separately in Medalie (2016), were made by using the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) regression model and update previously published WRTDS model results with recent data. Assessment of progress towards meeting phosphorus-reduction goals outlined in the Lake Champlain management plan relies on annual estimates of phosphorus flux. The percent change in annual concentration and flux is provided for two time periods. The R package EGRETci was used to estimate the uncertainty of the trend estimate. Differences in model specification and function between this study and previous studies that used WRTDS to estimate concentration and flux using data from Lake Champlain tributaries are described. Winter data were too sparse and nonrepresentative to use for estimates of concentration and flux but were sufficient for estimating the percentage of total annual flux over the period of record. Median winter-to-annual fractions ranged between 21 percent for total suspended solids and 27 percent for dissolved phosphorus. The winter contribution was largest for all constituents from the Mettawee River and smallest from the Ausable River. For the full record (1991 through 2014 for total and dissolved phosphorus and chloride and 1993 through 2014 for nitrogen and total suspended solids), 6 tributaries had decreasing trends in concentrations of total phosphorus, and 12 had increasing trends; concentrations of dissolved phosphorus decreased in 6 and increased in 8 tributaries; fluxes of total phosphorus decreased in 5 and

  7. Measurement of spinal or peripheral bone mass to estimate early postmenopausal bone loss

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riis, B.J.; Christiansen, C.

    1988-01-01

    This report presents data from 153 healthy, early postmenopausal women who were randomly allocated to two years of treatment with estrogen or placebo. Bone mineral content in the forearms was measured by single-photon absorptiometry, and bone mineral density of the lumbar spine and total-body bone mineral by dual-photon absorptiometry, before and after one and two years of treatment. At the end of the two years, there were highly significant differences of 6 to 7 percent between the estrogen and the placebo groups at all sites measured. The range of the changes of the spine measurement was twice that of the forearm and total-body measurements. It is concluded that measurement of the forearm by single-photon absorptiometry is superior to measurement of the spine by dual-photon absorptiometry both in clinical studies and in the individual patient for detecting estrogen-dependent bone loss and its treatment by estrogen replacement

  8. Repeatability and individual correlates of basal metabolic rate and total evaporative water loss in birds : A case study in European stonechats

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Versteegh, Maaike A.; Heim, Barbara; Dingemanse, Niels J.; Tieleman, B. Irene

    Basal metabolic rate (BMR) and total evaporative water loss (TEWL) are thought to have evolved in conjunction with life history traits and are often assumed to be characteristic features of an animal. Physiological traits can show large intraindividual variation at short and long timescales, yet

  9. Process Improvement Project Using Tranexamic Acid Is Cost-Effective in Reducing Blood Loss and Transfusions After Total Hip and Total Knee Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demos, Harry A; Lin, Zilan X; Barfield, William R; Wilson, Sylvia H; Robertson, Dawn C; Pellegrini, Vincent D

    2017-08-01

    Tranexamic acid (TXA) has been associated with decreased blood loss and transfusion after total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The purpose of this study was to examine both transfusion utilization and the economic impact of a Process Improvement Project implementing TXA for THA and TKA. After standardization of TXA administration in THA and TKA patients, retrospective data were compared from 12 consecutive months before (group A, n = 336 procedures) and after (group B, n = 436 procedures) project initiation. TXA administration increased with project implementation (group A = 3.57%, group B = 86.01%) and was associated with reductions in perioperative hemoglobin decrement (20.2%), patients transfused (45%), and number of units transfused per patient (61.9%). Cost savings were notable per patient ($128) and annually program wide ($55,884) with the primary THA subgroup contributing the most to the savings. No increase in adverse effects was observed. Standardized administration of TXA is an effective and economically favorable blood-reduction strategy for patients undergoing elective THA or TKA. Although reduction in transfusions with TXA may be greater after TKA, the economic and clinical impact of transfusion reduction is more substantial in THA patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. An economic assessment of the health effects and crop yield losses caused by air pollution in mainland China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Weijie; Huang, Xin; Song, Yu

    2017-06-01

    Air pollution is severe in China, and pollutants such as PM 2.5 and surface O 3 may cause major damage to human health and crops, respectively. Few studies have considered the health effects of PM 2.5 or the loss of crop yields due to surface O 3 using model-simulated air pollution data in China. We used gridded outputs from the WRF-Chem model, high resolution population data, and crop yield data to evaluate the effects on human health and crop yield in mainland China. Our results showed that outdoor PM 2.5 pollution was responsible for 1.70-1.99 million cases of all-cause mortality in 2006. The economic costs of these health effects were estimated to be 151.1-176.9 billion USD, of which 90% were attributed to mortality. The estimated crop yield losses for wheat, rice, maize, and soybean were approximately 9, 4.6, 0.44, and 0.34 million tons, respectively, resulting in economic losses of 3.4 billion USD. The total economic losses due to ambient air pollution were estimated to be 154.5-180.3 billion USD, accounting for approximately 5.7%-6.6% of the total GDP of China in 2006. Our results show that both population health and staple crop yields in China have been significantly affected by exposure to air pollution. Measures should be taken to reduce emissions, improve air quality, and mitigate the economic loss. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  11. [Loss of total 5-methylcytosine from the genome during cell culture aging coincides with the Hayflick limit].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazin, A L

    1993-01-01

    Analyzing the data about the age-related 5-methylcytosine (5mC) loss from DNA of cell cultures, the following conclusions have been made: 1. The rate of 5mC loss from DNA does not depend on the cell donor age; it remains constant during the logarithmic phase of cell growth, and may vary significantly in different cell lines. 2. The rate is inversely proportional to their Hayflick limit and to the species lifespan of cell donors. 3. In immortal cell lines the 5mC content in DNA is stable or increases with aging. 4. Hayflick limit estimations coincide with or are lower than the number of cell population doublings that corresponds to all 5mC loss from cell genome. A simple and fast method has been proposed for Hayflick limit prognostication by analysis of the rate of DNA hypomethylation. It may be used for early diagnosis of precrisis and immortal cell lines. Evidence has been obtained that age-dependent 5mC loss from DNA is the result of accumulating 5mC-->T+C substitutions that occur during DNA methylation in every cell division. The loss of all genomic 5mC residues during the lifespan may correspond to accumulation of about 3 x 10(6) 5mC-->T transitions or, on average, one mutation per gene. This may be one of the main reasons of the "catastrophe of errors" and cessation of cell proliferation. It is calculated that the rate of 5mC-->T transitions in normal cells may be 2.3 x 10(-5) per site in each cell doubling in human, 6 x 10(-5) in hamster, and 4.6 x 10(-4) in mouse. DNA methylation as a generator of mutations may be a "counter" of cell divisions and thus be one of the molecular mechanisms of the Hayflick phenomenon. The conclusion is made that the DNA methylation system may be considered as a genetically programmed mechanism for accumulating mutations during cell aging.

  12. The validity and reproducibility of food-frequency questionnaire–based total antioxidant capacity estimates in Swedish women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Total antioxidant capacity (TAC) provides an assessment of antioxidant activity and synergistic interactions of redox molecules in foods and plasma. We investigated the validity and reproducibility of food frequency questionnaire (FFQ)–based TAC estimates assessed by oxygen radical absorbance capaci...

  13. Regional-scale Predictions of Agricultural N Losses in an Area with a High Livestock Density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlo Grignani

    2011-02-01

    . Other important factors in draining soils were mineral fertilisation and potential drainage, which played a minor role in poorly draining soils. The drainage of the soil and the water table depth also played an important role by influencing the soil water content and N losses. The differences among the crops resulted to be very important and it was impossible to produce any indicator to predict N losses for all the crops together. Estimations of total losses are more reliable than estimations of leaching alone. Estimations of total N losses for maize and meadows are more reliable than for winter cereals.

  14. Regional-scale Predictions of Agricultural N Losses in an Area with a High Livestock Density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Sacco

    2006-12-01

    . Other important factors in draining soils were mineral fertilisation and potential drainage, which played a minor role in poorly draining soils. The drainage of the soil and the water table depth also played an important role by influencing the soil water content and N losses. The differences among the crops resulted to be very important and it was impossible to produce any indicator to predict N losses for all the crops together. Estimations of total losses are more reliable than estimations of leaching alone. Estimations of total N losses for maize and meadows are more reliable than for winter cereals.

  15. Inverse modelling estimates of N2O surface emissions and stratospheric losses using a global dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, R. L.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Vermeulen, A. T.; Aalto, T.; Haszpra, L.; Meinhardt, F.; O'Doherty, S.; Moncrieff, J. B.; Popa, M.; Steinbacher, M.; Jordan, A.; Schuck, T. J.; Brenninkmeijer, C. A.; Wofsy, S. C.; Kort, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) levels have been steadily increasing in the atmosphere over the past few decades at a rate of approximately 0.3% per year. This trend is of major concern as N2O is both a long-lived Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and an Ozone Depleting Substance (ODS), as it is a precursor of NO and NO2, which catalytically destroy ozone in the stratosphere. Recently, N2O emissions have been recognised as the most important ODS emissions and are now of greater importance than emissions of CFC's. The growth in atmospheric N2O is predominantly due to the enhancement of surface emissions by human activities. Most notably, the intensification and proliferation of agriculture since the mid-19th century, which has been accompanied by the increased input of reactive nitrogen to soils and has resulted in significant perturbations to the natural N-cycle and emissions of N2O. There exist two approaches for estimating N2O emissions, the so-called 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' approaches. Top-down approaches, based on the inversion of atmospheric measurements, require an estimate of the loss of N2O via photolysis and oxidation in the stratosphere. Uncertainties in the loss magnitude contribute uncertainties of 15 to 20% to the global annual surface emissions, complicating direct comparisons between bottom-up and top-down estimates. In this study, we present a novel inversion framework for the simultaneous optimization of N2O surface emissions and the magnitude of the loss, which avoids errors in the emissions due to incorrect assumptions about the lifetime of N2O. We use a Bayesian inversion with a variational formulation (based on 4D-Var) in order to handle very large datasets. N2O fluxes are retrieved at 4-weekly resolution over a global domain with a spatial resolution of 3.75° x 2.5° longitude by latitude. The efficacy of the simultaneous optimization of emissions and losses is tested using a global synthetic dataset, which mimics the available atmospheric data. Lastly, using real

  16. Application of the integrated analysis of safety (ISA) to sequences of Total loss of feed water in a PWR Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreno Chamorro, P.; Gallego Diaz, C.

    2011-01-01

    The main objective of this work is to show the current status of the implementation of integrated analysis of safety (ISA) methodology and its SCAIS associated tool (system of simulation codes for ISA) to the sequence analysis of total loss of feedwater in a PWR reactor model Westinghouse of three loops with large, dry containment.

  17. Estimation of uncertainty of a reference material for proficiency testing for the determination of total mercury in fish in nature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santana, L V; Sarkis, J E S; Ulrich, J C; Hortellani, M A

    2015-01-01

    We provide an uncertainty estimates for homogeneity and stability studies of reference material used in proficiency test for determination of total mercury in fish fresh muscle tissue. Stability was estimated by linear regression and homogeneity by ANOVA. The results indicate that the reference material is both homogeneous and chemically stable over the short term. Total mercury concentration of the muscle tissue, with expanded uncertainty, was 0.294 ± 0.089 μg g −1

  18. Mapping and estimating the total living biomass and carbon in low-biomass woodlands using Landsat 8 CDR data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belachew Gizachew

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A functional forest carbon measuring, reporting and verification (MRV system to support climate change mitigation policies, such as REDD+, requires estimates of forest biomass carbon, as an input to estimate emissions. A combination of field inventory and remote sensing is expected to provide those data. By linking Landsat 8 and forest inventory data, we (1 developed linear mixed effects models for total living biomass (TLB estimation as a function of spectral variables, (2 developed a 30 m resolution map of the total living carbon (TLC, and (3 estimated the total TLB stock of the study area. Inventory data consisted of tree measurements from 500 plots in 63 clusters in a 15,700 km2 study area, in miombo woodlands of Tanzania. The Landsat 8 data comprised two climate data record images covering the inventory area. Results We found a linear relationship between TLB and Landsat 8 derived spectral variables, and there was no clear evidence of spectral data saturation at higher biomass values. The root-mean-square error of the values predicted by the linear model linking the TLB and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI is equal to 44 t/ha (49 % of the mean value. The estimated TLB for the study area was 140 Mt, with a mean TLB density of 81 t/ha, and a 95 % confidence interval of 74–88 t/ha. We mapped the distribution of TLC of the study area using the TLB model, where TLC was estimated at 47 % of TLB. Conclusion The low biomass in the miombo woodlands, and the absence of a spectral data saturation problem suggested that Landsat 8 derived NDVI is suitable auxiliary information for carbon monitoring in the context of REDD+, for low-biomass, open-canopy woodlands.

  19. Estimating total economic merit for the Portuguese Holstein cattle population under new economic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joana B.M. Almeida

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to develop a total economic merit index that identifies more profitable animals using Portugal as a case study to illustrate the recent economic changes in milk production. Economic values were estimated following future global prices and EU policy, and taking into consideration the priorities of the Portuguese dairy sector. Economic values were derived using an objective system analysis with a positive approach, that involved the comparison of several alternatives, using real technical and economic data from national dairy farms. The estimated relative economic values revealed a high importance of production traits, low for morphological traits and a value of zero for somatic cell score. According to several future market expectations, three scenarios for milk production were defined: a realistic, a pessimistic and an optimistic setting, each with projected future economic values. Responses to selection and efficiency of selection of the indices were compared to a fourth scenario that represents the current selection situation in Portugal, based on individual estimated breeding values for milk yield. Although profit resulting from sale of milk per average lactation in the optimistic scenario was higher than in the realistic scenario, the volatility of future economic conditions and uncertainty about the future milk pricing system should be considered. Due to this market instability, genetic improvement programs require new definitions of profit functions for the near future. Effective genetic progress direction must be verified so that total economic merit formulae can be adjusted and selection criteria redirected to the newly defined target goals.

  20. Informing Mitigation of Disaster Loss through Social Media: Evidence from Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allaire, M.

    2015-12-01

    This paper is the first to investigate the role of online information and social media in enabling households to reduce natural disaster losses. The historic 2011 Bangkok flood is utilized as a case study to assess how internet use allowed households to mitigate flood losses. This event was one of the first major disasters to affect an urban area with a substantial population connected to social media. The role of online information is investigated with a mixed methods approach, using both quantitative (propensity score matching and multivariate regression analysis) and qualitative (in-depth interviews) techniques. The study relies on two data sources - survey responses from 469 Bangkok households and in-depth interviews with internet users who are a subset of the survey participants. Propensity score matching indicates that social media use enabled households to reduce mean total losses by 37%, using a nearest neighbor estimator. Average loss reductions amounted to USD 3,708 to USD 4,886, depending on the matching estimator. In addition, regression analysis suggests that social media use is associated with lower flood losses (average reduction of USD 2,784). These reductions are notable when considering that total flood losses in 2011 averaged USD 4,903. Social media offered information that was not available from other sources, such as localized and nearly real-time updates of flood location and depth. With knowledge of current flood conditions, Bangkok households could move belongings to higher ground before floodwaters arrived. These findings suggest that utilizing social media users as sensors could better inform populations during natural disasters, particularly in locations that lack real-time, accurate flood monitoring networks. Therefore, expanded access to the internet and social could especially be useful in developing countries, ungagged basins, and highly complex urban environments. There is also an enormous opportunity for disseminating government

  1. Estimation on the Pressure Loss of the Conceptual Primary Cooling System and Design of the Primary Cooling Pump for a Research Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, Kyoung Woo; Oh, Jae Min; Park, Jong Hark; Chae, Hee Taek; Seo, Jae Kwang; Park, Cheon Tae; Yoon, Ju Hyeon; Lee, Doo Jeong

    2009-01-01

    A new conceptual primary cooling system (PCS) for a research reactor has been designed for an adequate cooling to the reactor core which has various powers ranging from 30MW through 80MW. The developed primary cooling system consisted of decay tanks, pumps, heat exchangers, vacuum breakers, some isolation and check valves, connection piping, and instruments. Because the system flow rate should be determined by the thermal hydraulic design analysis for the core, the heads to design the primary cooling pumps (PCPs) in a PCS will be estimated by the variable system flow rates. The heads of the part of a research reactor vessel was evaluated by the previous study. The various pressure losses of the PCS can be calculated by the dimensional analysis of the pipe flow and the head loss coefficient of the components. The purpose of this research is to estimate the various pressure losses and to design the PCPs

  2. Surface Mass Balance Contributions to Acceleration of Antarctic Ice Mass Loss during 2003- 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, K. W.; Wilson, C. R.; Scambos, T. A.; Kim, B. M.; Waliser, D. E.; Tian, B.; Kim, B.; Eom, J.

    2015-12-01

    Recent observations from satellite gravimetry (the GRACE mission) suggest an acceleration of ice mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). The contribution of surface mass balance changes (due to variable precipitation) is compared with GRACE-derived mass loss acceleration by assessing the estimated contribution of snow mass from meteorological reanalysis data. We find that over much of the continent, the acceleration can be explained by precipitation anomalies. However, on the Antarctic Peninsula and other parts of West Antarctica mass changes are not explained by precipitation and are likely associated with ice discharge rate increases. The total apparent GRACE acceleration over all of the AIS between 2003 and 2013 is -13.6±7.2 GTon/yr2. Of this total, we find that the surface mass balance component is -8.2±2.0 GTon/yr2. However, the GRACE estimate appears to contain errors arising from the atmospheric pressure fields used to remove air mass effects. The estimated acceleration error from this effect is about 9.8±5.8 GTon/yr2. Correcting for this yields an ice discharge acceleration of -15.1±6.5 GTon/yr2.

  3. Systematic losses of outdoor production from heat stress and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzan, J. R.; Huber, M.

    2017-12-01

    Heat stress impacts humans today with heat waves, worker reductions, and health issues. Here we show novel results in labor productivity for outdoor work due to global warming. We use the HumanIndexMod to calculate 4x daily values of Simplified Wet Bulb Globe Temperature index (sWBGT) from the CMIP5 archive normalized by global mean surface temperature changes. Previous work shows that scaling of sWBGT is robust across the CMIP5 archive. We calculate total annual outdoor labor capacity from our scaled sWBGT results. Our results show modern day losses due to heat stress impacting outdoor work for low latitudes (and parts of Eastern China and the Southern United States). At 2°C of climate change, up to 20% losses to total capacity impact Midwestern United States, while the Southern United States suffers >20% losses. Western Coastal Africa suffers annual losses at >80%, along with the Amazon Basin and the greater South East Asia region. India suffers losses >50% annually. At +5°C, the estimated mean global change by 2100, the Equatorial region (Northern Australia and Northern Bolivia to Western Coastal Africa and Southern India) has complete cessation of annual outdoor work. The Midwest United States suffers losses up to 30%, and the Gulf of Mexico suffers losses >50%. Our results imply that small changes in global mean surface temperature (2°C) will lead to crippling losses to outdoor work annually, and ≥5°C losses will lead to cessation of labor for more than half the world's population.

  4. Evaluation of the 137Cs technique for estimating wind erosion losses for some sandy Western Australian soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harper, R.J.; Gilkes, R.J.

    1994-01-01

    The utility of the caesium-137 technique, for estimating the effects of wind erosion, was evaluated on the soils of a semi-arid agricultural area near Jerramungup, Western Australia. The past incidence of wind erosion was estimated from field observations of soil profile morphology and an existing remote sensing study. Erosion was limited to sandy surfaced soils (0-4% clay), with a highly significant difference (P 137 Cs values between eroded and non-eroded sandy soils, with mean values of 243±17 and 386±13 Bq m -2 respectively. Non-eroded soils, with larger clay contents, had a mean 137 Cs content of 421±26 Bq m -2 , however, due to considerable variation between replicate samples, this value was not significantly different from that of the non-eroded sands. Hence, although the technique discriminates between eroded and non-eroded areas, the large variation in 137 Cs values means that from 27 to 96 replicate samples are required to provide statistically valid estimates of 137 Cs loss. The occurrence of around 18% of the total 137 Cs between 10 and 20 cm depth in these soils, despite cultivation being confined to the surface 9 cm, suggests that leaching of 137 Cs occurs in the sandy soils, although there was no relationship between clay content and 137 Cs value for either eroded or non-eroded soils. In a multiple linear regression, organic carbon content and the mean grain size of the eroded soils explained 35% of the variation in 137 Cs content. This relationship suggests that both organic carbon and 137 Cs are removed by erosion, with erosion being more prevalent on soils with a finer sand fraction. Clay and silt contents do not vary with depth in the near-surface horizons of the eroded sandy soils, hence it is likely that wind erosion strips the entire surface horizon with its 137 Cs content, rather than selectively winnowing fine material. 71 refs., 6 tabs., 2 fig

  5. Estimation of hysteretic losses for MgB2 tapes under the operating conditions of a generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas-Llanos, Carlos Roberto; Zermeño, Víctor M. R.; Sanz, Santiago; Trillaud, Frederic; Grilli, Francesco

    2016-03-01

    Hysteretic losses in the MgB2 wound superconducting coils of a 550 kW synchronous hybrid scaled generator were estimated as part of the European project SUPRAPOWER led by the Spanish Fundación Tecnalia Research & Innovation. Particular interest was given to the losses caused by the magnetic flux ripples in the rotor coils originating from the conventional stator during nominal operation. To compute these losses, a 2D finite element analysis was conducted and Maxwell’s equations written in the H-formulation were solved considering the nonlinear material properties of the conductor materials. The modeled tapes are made of multiple MgB2 filaments embedded in a Ni matrix and soldered to a high purity copper strip and insulated with Dacron braid. Three geometrical models of single tape cross sections of decreasing complexity were studied: (1) the first model reproduced closely the actual cross section obtained from tape micrographs. (2) The second model was obtained from the computed elasto-plastic deformation of a round Ni wire. (3) The third model was based on a simplified cross section with the superconducting filaments bundled in a single elliptical bulky structure. The last geometry allowed the validation of the modeling technique by comparing numerical losses with results from well-established analytical expressions. Additionally, the following cases of filament transpositions of the multi-filamentary tape were studied: no transposition, partial and full transposition; thereby improving understanding of the relevance of the tape fabrication process on the magnitude of the determination of ac losses. Finally, choosing the right level of geometrical detail, the following operational regimes of the machine and its impact on individual superconducting tape losses in the rotor were studied: bias-dc current, ramping current under ramping background field and magnetic flux ripples under dc background current and field.

  6. Estimation of hysteretic losses for MgB2 tapes under the operating conditions of a generator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vargas-Llanos, Carlos Roberto; Zermeño, Víctor M R; Grilli, Francesco; Sanz, Santiago; Trillaud, Frederic

    2016-01-01

    Hysteretic losses in the MgB 2 wound superconducting coils of a 550 kW synchronous hybrid scaled generator were estimated as part of the European project SUPRAPOWER led by the Spanish Fundación Tecnalia Research and Innovation. Particular interest was given to the losses caused by the magnetic flux ripples in the rotor coils originating from the conventional stator during nominal operation. To compute these losses, a 2D finite element analysis was conducted and Maxwell’s equations written in the H-formulation were solved considering the nonlinear material properties of the conductor materials. The modeled tapes are made of multiple MgB 2 filaments embedded in a Ni matrix and soldered to a high purity copper strip and insulated with Dacron braid. Three geometrical models of single tape cross sections of decreasing complexity were studied: (1) the first model reproduced closely the actual cross section obtained from tape micrographs. (2) The second model was obtained from the computed elasto-plastic deformation of a round Ni wire. (3) The third model was based on a simplified cross section with the superconducting filaments bundled in a single elliptical bulky structure. The last geometry allowed the validation of the modeling technique by comparing numerical losses with results from well-established analytical expressions. Additionally, the following cases of filament transpositions of the multi-filamentary tape were studied: no transposition, partial and full transposition; thereby improving understanding of the relevance of the tape fabrication process on the magnitude of the determination of ac losses. Finally, choosing the right level of geometrical detail, the following operational regimes of the machine and its impact on individual superconducting tape losses in the rotor were studied: bias-dc current, ramping current under ramping background field and magnetic flux ripples under dc background current and field. (paper)

  7. Frequency dependent loss analysis and minimization of system losses in switchmode audio power amplifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yamauchi, Akira; Knott, Arnold; Jørgensen, Ivan Harald Holger

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, frequency dependent losses in switch-mode audio power amplifiers are analyzed and a loss model is improved by taking the voltage dependence of the parasitic capacitance of MOSFETs into account. The estimated power losses are compared to the measurement and great accuracy is achieved...

  8. Background estimation in short-wave region during determination of total sample composition by x-ray fluorescence method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simakov, V.A.; Kordyukov, S.V.; Petrov, E.N.

    1988-01-01

    Method of background estimation in short-wave spectral region during determination of total sample composition by X-ray fluorescence method is described. 13 types of different rocks with considerable variations of base composition and Zr, Nb, Th, U content below 7x10 -3 % are investigated. The suggested method of background accounting provides for a less statistical error of the background estimation than direct isolated measurement and reliability of its determination in a short-wave region independent on the sample base. Possibilities of suggested method for artificial mixtures conforming by the content of main component to technological concemtrates - niobium, zirconium, tantalum are estimated

  9. A survey of honey bee colony losses in the U.S., fall 2007 to spring 2008.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis van Engelsdorp

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Honey bees are an essential component of modern agriculture. A recently recognized ailment, Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD, devastates colonies, leaving hives with a complete lack of bees, dead or alive. Up to now, estimates of honey bee population decline have not included losses occurring during the wintering period, thus underestimating actual colony mortality. Our survey quantifies the extent of colony losses in the United States over the winter of 2007-2008. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Surveys were conducted to quantify and identify management factors (e.g. operation size, hive migration that contribute to high colony losses in general and CCD symptoms in particular. Over 19% of the country's estimated 2.44 million colonies were surveyed. A total loss of 35.8% of colonies was recorded; an increase of 11.4% compared to last year. Operations that pollinated almonds lost, on average, the same number of colonies as those that did not. The 37.9% of operations that reported having at least some of their colonies die with a complete lack of bees had a total loss of 40.8% of colonies compared to the 17.1% loss reported by beekeepers without this symptom. Large operations were more likely to have this symptom suggesting that a contagious condition may be a causal factor. Sixty percent of all colonies that were reported dead in this survey died without dead bees, and thus possibly suffered from CCD. In PA, losses varied with region, indicating that ambient temperature over winter may be an important factor. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Of utmost importance to understanding the recent losses and CCD is keeping track of losses over time and on a large geographic scale. Given that our surveys are representative of the losses across all beekeeping operations, between 0.75 and 1.00 million honey bee colonies are estimated to have died in the United States over the winter of 2007-2008. This article is an extensive survey of U.S. beekeepers

  10. Reverse total shoulder glenoid baseplate stability with superior glenoid bone loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Elise J; Duquin, Thomas R; Ehrensberger, Mark T

    2017-10-01

    Superior wear of the glenoid bone is common in patients with rotator cuff arthropathy. This can become a treatment challenge for patients who require shoulder arthroplasty. In reverse shoulder arthroplasty (RSA), glenoid bone loss may affect the stability of baseplate fixation. The primary purpose of this biomechanical laboratory study was to assess the initial fixation stability of RSA glenosphere baseplates in the presence of variable amounts of superior glenoid bone loss. High-density solid rigid polyurethane foam (30 pounds/cubic foot) was machined to model the glenoid with variable superior defects that provided different levels of support (100%, 90%, 75%, and 50%) for the glenosphere baseplate. The samples were cyclically loaded (0-750 N at 1 Hz for 5000 cycles) at a 60° glenohumeral angle. The micromotion and migration of the baseplate were calculated from displacement data captured during the loading tests with an array of 3 linear variable differential transformers mounted around the baseplate. Micromotion was significantly greater in samples with 50% defects compared with those with smaller defects. Migration was significantly greater after testing for all defect sizes. Initial fixation of RSA glenosphere baseplates was significantly reduced in models with 50% bone loss on the superior edge compared with models with less bone loss in this high-density bone foam model. Copyright © 2017 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Productivity losses and public finance burden attributable to breast cancer in Poland, 2010-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Łyszczarz, Błażej; Nojszewska, Ewelina

    2017-10-10

    Apart from the health and social burden of the disease, breast cancer (BC) has important economic implications for the sick, health system and whole economy. There has been a growing interest in the economic aspects of breast cancer and analyses of the disease costs seem to be the most explored topic. However, the results from these studies are hardly comparable. With this study we aim to contribute to the field by providing estimates of productivity losses and public finance burden attributable to BC in Poland. We used retrospective prevalence-based top-down approach to estimate the productivity losses (indirect costs) of BC in Poland in the period 2010-2014. Human capital method (HCM) and societal perspective were used to estimate the costs of: absenteeism of the sick and caregivers, presenteeism of the sick and caregivers, disability, and premature mortality. We also used figures illustrating public finance burden attributable to the disease. Deterministic sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the stability of the estimates. A variety of data sources were used with the social insurance system and Polish National Cancer Registry being the most important ones. Productivity losses associated with BC in Poland were €583.7 million in 2010 and they increased to €699.7 million in 2014. Throughout the period these costs accounted for 0.162-0.171% of GDP, an equivalent of 62,531-65,816 per capita GDP. Losses attributable to disability and premature mortality proved to be the major cost drivers with 27.6%-30.6% and 22.0%-24.6% of the total costs respectively. The costs due to caregivers' presenteeism were negligible (0.1% of total costs). Public finance expenditure for social insurance benefits to BC sufferers ranged from €50.2 million (2010) to €56.6 million (2014), an equivalent of 0.72-0.79% of expenditures for all diseases. Potential losses in public finance revenues accounted for €173.9 million in 2010 and €211.0 million in 2014. Sensitivity

  12. Disease spread models to estimate highly uncertain emerging diseases losses for animal agriculture insurance policies: an application to the U.S. farm-raised catfish industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagmutt, Francisco J; Sempier, Stephen H; Hanson, Terril R

    2013-10-01

    Emerging diseases (ED) can have devastating effects on agriculture. Consequently, agricultural insurance for ED can develop if basic insurability criteria are met, including the capability to estimate the severity of ED outbreaks with associated uncertainty. The U.S. farm-raised channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) industry was used to evaluate the feasibility of using a disease spread simulation modeling framework to estimate the potential losses from new ED for agricultural insurance purposes. Two stochastic models were used to simulate the spread of ED between and within channel catfish ponds in Mississippi (MS) under high, medium, and low disease impact scenarios. The mean (95% prediction interval (PI)) proportion of ponds infected within disease-impacted farms was 7.6% (3.8%, 22.8%), 24.5% (3.8%, 72.0%), and 45.6% (4.0%, 92.3%), and the mean (95% PI) proportion of fish mortalities in ponds affected by the disease was 9.8% (1.4%, 26.7%), 49.2% (4.7%, 60.7%), and 88.3% (85.9%, 90.5%) for the low, medium, and high impact scenarios, respectively. The farm-level mortality losses from an ED were up to 40.3% of the total farm inventory and can be used for insurance premium rate development. Disease spread modeling provides a systematic way to organize the current knowledge on the ED perils and, ultimately, use this information to help develop actuarially sound agricultural insurance policies and premiums. However, the estimates obtained will include a large amount of uncertainty driven by the stochastic nature of disease outbreaks, by the uncertainty in the frequency of future ED occurrences, and by the often sparse data available from past outbreaks. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Estimation of phosphorous loss from agricultural land in the Heartland region of the U.S.A. using the APEX model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Accurate phosphorus (P) loss estimation from agricultural land is important for development of best management practices and protection of water quality. The Agricultural Policy/Environmental Extender (APEX) model is a powerful simulation model designed to simulate edge-of-field water, sediment, an...

  14. Weight loss versus muscle loss: re-evaluating inclusion criteria for future cancer cachexia interventional trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roeland, Eric J; Ma, Joseph D; Nelson, Sandahl H; Seibert, Tyler; Heavey, Sean; Revta, Carolyn; Gallivan, Andrea; Baracos, Vickie E

    2017-02-01

    Participation in cancer cachexia clinical trials requires a defined weight loss (WL) over time. A loss in skeletal muscle mass, measured by cross-sectional computed tomography (CT) image analysis, represents a possible alternative. Our aim was to compare WL versus muscle loss in patients who were screened to participate in a cancer cachexia clinical trial. This was a single-center, retrospective analysis in metastatic colorectal cancer patients screened for an interventional cancer cachexia trial requiring a ≥5 % WL over the preceding 6 months. Concurrent CT images obtained as part of standard oncology care were analyzed for changes in total muscle and fat (visceral, subcutaneous, and total). Of patients screened (n = 36), 3 (8 %) enrolled in the trial, 17 (47 %) were excluded due to insufficient WL (20 %), and 16 (44 %) met inclusion criteria for WL. Patients who met screening criteria for WL (5-20 %) had a mean ± SD of 7.7 ± 8.7 % muscle loss, 24.4 ± 37.5 % visceral adipose loss, 21.6 ± 22.3 % subcutaneous adipose loss, and 22.1 ± 24.7 % total adipose loss. Patients excluded due to insufficient WL had 2 ± 6.4 % muscle loss, but a gain of 8.5 ± 39.8 % visceral adipose, and 4.2 ± 28.2 % subcutaneous adipose loss and 0.8 ± 28.4 % total adipose loss. Of the patients excluded due to WL 5 %. Defining cancer cachexia by WL over time may be limited as it does not capture skeletal muscle loss. Cross-sectional CT body composition analysis may improve early detection of muscle loss and patient participation in future cancer cachexia clinical trials.

  15. Multitemporal analysis of estimated soil loss for the river Mourão watershed, Paraná – Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. H. Graça

    Full Text Available The multitemporal behavior of soil loss by surface water erosion in the hydrographic basin of the river Mourão in the center-western region of the Paraná state, Brazil, is analyzed. Forecast was based on the application of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE with the data integration and estimates within an Geography Information System (GIS environment. Results had shown high mean annual rain erosivity (10,000 MJ.mm.ha–1.h–1.year–1, with great concentration in January and December. As a rule, soils have average erodibilities, exception of Dystroferric Red Latisol (low class and Dystrophic Red Argisol (high class. Although the topographic factor was high (>20, rates lower than 1 were predominant. Main land uses comprise temporal crops and pasture throughout the years. The watershed showed a natural potential for low surface erosion. When related to usage types, yearly soil loss was also low (<50 ton.ha–1.year–1, with more critical scores that reach rates higher than 150 ton.ha–1.year–1. Soil loss over the years did not provide great distinctions in distribution standards, although it becames rather intensified in some sectors, especially in the center-eastern and southwestern sections of the watershed.

  16. Ethamsylate and blood loss in total hip replacement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith, I

    1979-01-01

    Nineteen consecutive patients undergoing total hip replacement under epidural anaesthesia were randomly divided into two groups. The treatment group received 1000 mg of ethamsylate intravenously before induction of anaesthesia. Blood lost during surgery was measured by a colorimetric technique. Closed suction drains were used and all blood lost after operation collected for measurement. Ethamsylate did not decrease the average volumes of blood lost during or after the operation. Neither did it reduce the requirements for blood transfusion. Although there were no side-effects attributable to ethamyslate, there seems to be no indication for its use in total hip replacement under epidural anaesthesia.

  17. Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Victoria Y; Jamison, Dean T; Summers, Lawrence H

    2018-02-01

    There is an unmet need for greater investment in preparedness against major epidemics and pandemics. The arguments in favour of such investment have been largely based on estimates of the losses in national incomes that might occur as the result of a major epidemic or pandemic. Recently, we extended the estimate to include the valuation of the lives lost as a result of pandemic-related increases in mortality. This produced markedly higher estimates of the full value of loss that might occur as the result of a future pandemic. We parametrized an exceedance probability function for a global influenza pandemic and estimated that the expected number of influenza-pandemic-related deaths is about 720 000 per year. We calculated that the expected annual losses from pandemic risk to be about 500 billion United States dollars - or 0.6% of global income - per year. This estimate falls within - but towards the lower end of - the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimates of the value of the losses from global warming, which range from 0.2% to 2% of global income. The estimated percentage of annual national income represented by the expected value of losses varied by country income grouping: from a little over 0.3% in high-income countries to 1.6% in lower-middle-income countries. Most of the losses from influenza pandemics come from rare, severe events.

  18. Seagrass blue carbon dynamics in the Gulf of Mexico: Stocks, losses from anthropogenic disturbance, and gains through seagrass restoration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorhaug, Anitra; Poulos, Helen M; López-Portillo, Jorge; Ku, Timothy C W; Berlyn, Graeme P

    2017-12-15

    Seagrasses comprise a substantive North American and Caribbean Sea blue carbon sink. Yet fine-scale estimates of seagrass carbon stocks, fluxes from anthropogenic disturbances, and potential gains in sedimentary carbon from seagrass restoration are lacking for most of the Western Hemisphere. To begin to fill this knowledge gap in the subtropics and tropics, we quantified organic carbon (C org ) stocks, losses, and gains from restorations at 8 previously-disturbed seagrass sites around the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) (n=128 cores). Mean natural seagrass C org stocks were 25.7±6.7MgC org ha -1 around the GoM, while mean C org stocks at adjacent barren sites that had previously hosted seagrass were 17.8MgC org ha -1 . Restored seagrass beds contained a mean of 38.7±13.1MgC org ha -1 . Mean C org losses differed by anthropogenic impact type, but averaged 20.98±7.14MgC org ha -1 . C org gains from seagrass restoration averaged 20.96±8.59Mgha -1 . These results, when combined with the similarity between natural and restored C org content, highlight the potential of seagrass restoration for mitigating seagrass C org losses from prior impact events. Our GoM basin-wide estimates of natural C org totaled ~36.4Tg for the 947,327ha for the USA-GoM. Including Mexico, the total basin contained an estimated 37.2-37.5Tg C org . Regional US-GoM losses totaled 21.69Tg C org . C org losses differed significantly among anthropogenic impacts. Yet, seagrass restoration appears to be an important climate change mitigation strategy that could be implemented elsewhere throughout the tropics and subtropics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Tranexamic acid reduces blood loss and blood transfusions in primary total hip arthroplasty: a prospective randomized double-blind study in 40 patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Husted, Henrik; Blønd, Lars; Sonne-Holm, Stig

    2003-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: We performed a prospective, randomized, double-blind study on 40 patients scheduled for primary total hip arthroplasty due to arthrosis or osteonecrosis to determine the effect of tranexamic acid on per- and postoperative blood losses and on the number of blood transfusions needed....... PATIENTS AND METHODS: 40 patients were randomized to tranexamic acid (10 mg/kg given as a bolus intravenous injection, followed by a continuous infusion of 1 mg/kg/hour for 10 hours) or placebo (20 mL saline given intravenously) 15 minutes before the incision. We recorded the peroperative and postoperative...... blood losses at removal of the drain 24 hours after the operation and the number of blood transfusions. RESULTS: Patients receiving tranexamic acid had a mean peroperative blood loss of 480 mL versus 622 mL in patients receiving placebo (p = 0.3), a postoperative blood loss of 334 mL versus 609 mL (p...

  20. Soil losses in rural watersheds with environmental land use conflicts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacheco, F A L; Varandas, S G P; Sanches Fernandes, L F; Valle Junior, R F

    2014-07-01

    Soil losses were calculated in a rural watershed where environmental land use conflicts developed in the course of a progressive invasion of forest and pasture/forest lands by agriculture, especially vineyards. The hydrographic basin is located in the Douro region where the famous Port wine is produced (northern Portugal) and the soil losses were estimated by the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) in combination with a Geographic Information System (GIS). Environmental land use conflicts were set up on the basis of land use and land capability maps, coded as follows: 1-agriculture, 2-pasture, 3-pasture/forest, and 4-forest. The difference between the codes of capability and use defines a conflict class, where a negative or nil value means no conflict and a positive i value means class i conflict. The reliability of soil loss estimates was tested by a check of these values against the frequency of stone wall instabilities in vineyard terraces, with good results. Using the USLE, the average soil loss (A) was estimated in A=12.2 t·ha(-1)·yr(-1) and potential erosion risk areas were found to occupy 28.3% of the basin, defined where soil losses are larger than soil loss tolerances. Soil losses in no conflict regions (11.2 t·ha(-1)·yr(-1)) were significantly different from those in class 2 (6.8 t·ha(-1)·yr(-1)) and class 3 regions (21.3 t·ha(-1)·yr(-1)) that in total occupy 2.62 km(2) (14.3% of the basin). When simulating a scenario of no conflict across the entire basin, whereby land use in class 2 conflict regions is set up to permanent pastures and in class 3 conflict regions to pine forests, it was concluded that A=0.95 t·ha(-1)·yr(-1) (class 2) or A=9.8 t·ha(-1)·yr(-1) (class 3), which correspond to drops of 86% and 54% in soil loss relative to the actual values. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Estimating rainforest biomass stocks and carbon loss from deforestation and degradation in Papua New Guinea 1972-2002: Best estimates, uncertainties and research needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Jane; Shearman, Phil; Ash, Julian; Kirkpatrick, J B

    2010-01-01

    Reduction of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation is being considered a cost-effective way of mitigating the impacts of global warming. If such reductions are to be implemented, accurate and repeatable measurements of forest cover change and biomass will be required. In Papua New Guinea (PNG), which has one of the world's largest remaining areas of tropical forest, we used the best available data to estimate rainforest carbon stocks, and emissions from deforestation and degradation. We collated all available PNG field measurements which could be used to estimate carbon stocks in logged and unlogged forest. We extrapolated these plot-level estimates across the forested landscape using high-resolution forest mapping. We found the best estimate of forest carbon stocks contained in logged and unlogged forest in 2002 to be 4770 Mt (+/-13%). Our best estimate of gross forest carbon released through deforestation and degradation between 1972 and 2002 was 1178 Mt (+/-18%). By applying a long-term forest change model, we estimated that the carbon loss resulting from deforestation and degradation in 2001 was 53 Mt (+/-18%), rising from 24 Mt (+/-15%) in 1972. Forty-one percent of 2001 emissions resulted from logging, rising from 21% in 1972. Reducing emissions from logging is therefore a priority for PNG. The large uncertainty in our estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes is primarily due to the dearth of field measurements in both logged and unlogged forest, and the lack of PNG logging damage studies. Research priorities for PNG to increase the accuracy of forest carbon stock assessments are the collection of field measurements in unlogged forest and more spatially explicit logging damage studies. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Evaluation of feed and bleed cooling mode in case of total loss of feedwater on 900 MWe PWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Champ, M.; Cornille, Y.

    1989-07-01

    The physical studies carried out with the CATHARE code to assess the feed and bleed procedure developed in order to cope with the total loss of feed water on a 900 MWe PWR are presented. These studies allowed the definition of the maximum delays of intervention which would prevent the core from uncovering. Different cases of equipment availability are considered. The data generated will be used in the 900 MWe Probabilistic Safety Assessment which is under way at the Institut de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire

  3. Analysis of Total Loss of Feedwater for APR1400 using SPACE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Seong Min; Park, Seok Jeong; Park, Chan Eok; Choi, Jong Ho; Lee, Gyu Cheon [KEPCO Engineering and Construction, Deajeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    The Total Loss of FeedWater (TLOFW) event is an accident that main feedwater and auxiliary feedwater of secondary side are not supplied to steam generators. APR1400 uses the Safety Depressurization and Vent System (SDVS) for the F and B operation and SDVS is designed to perform the rapid depressurization function of Reactor Coolant System (RCS) through the remote manual operation when TLOFW is occurred. If RCS pressure falls below a Safety Injection Pump (SIP) working pressure, it can be possible to start the F and B operation which injects SIP flow to RCS and releases the RCS vapor and two-phase flow through Pilot Operated Safety Relief Valves (POSRVs) by opening the POSRVs, and then it can be possible to remove the decay heat. The design requirement of SDVS is that the core water level should be maintained at higher than 2 feet from the top of active core during the F and B operation. The TLOFW analysis was carried out to evaluate the capability of decay heat removal for APR1400 using newly developed SPACE code. The analysis results show that the F and B operation with 2 POSRVs and 2 SIPs and the F and B operation with 4 POSRVs and 4 SIPs meet the SDVS design requirement for the fuel cladding temperature. The comparison with RELAP5 shows good agreement and it validates the applicability of SPACE code for this type of accident analysis.

  4. Wildlife Loss Estimates and Summary of Previous Mitigation Related to Hydroelectric Projects in Montana, Volume Three, Hungry Horse Project.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casey, Daniel

    1984-10-01

    This assessment addresses the impacts to the wildlife populations and wildlife habitats due to the Hungry Horse Dam project on the South Fork of the Flathead River and previous mitigation of theses losses. In order to develop and focus mitigation efforts, it was first necessary to estimate wildlife and wildlife hatitat losses attributable to the construction and operation of the project. The purpose of this report was to document the best available information concerning the degree of impacts to target wildlife species. Indirect benefits to wildlife species not listed will be identified during the development of alternative mitigation measures. Wildlife species incurring positive impacts attributable to the project were identified.

  5. Factors influencing to earthquake caused economical losses on urban territories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurtaev, B.; Khakimov, S.

    2005-12-01

    Questions of assessment of earthquake economical losses on urban territories of Uzbekistan, taking into account damage forming factors, which are increqasing or reducing economical losses were discussed in the paper. Buildings and facilities vulnerability factors were classified. From total value (equal to 50) were selected most important ones. Factors ranging by level of impact and weight function in loss assessment were ranged. One group of damage forming factors includs seismic hazard assessment, design, construction and maintenance of building and facilities. Other one is formed by city planning characteristics and includes : density of constructions and population, area of soft soils, existence of liquefaction susceptible soils and etc. To all these factors has been given weight functions and interval values by groups. Methodical recomendations for loss asessment taking into account above mentioned factors were developed. It gives possibility to carry out preventive measures for protection of vulnerable territories, to differentiate cost assessment of each region in relation with territory peculiarity and damage value. Using developed method we have ranged cities by risk level. It has allowed to establish ratings of the general vulnerability of urban territories of cities and on their basis to make optimum decisions, oriented to loss mitigation and increase of safety of population. Besides the technique can be used by insurance companies for estimated zoning of territory, development of effective utilization schema of land resources, rational town-planning, an economic estimation of used territory for supply with information of the various works connected to an estimation of seismic hazard. Further improvement of technique of establishment of rating of cities by level of damage from earthquakes will allow to increase quality of construction, rationality of accommodation of buildings, will be an economic stimulator for increasing of seismic resistance of

  6. Comparision of blood loss between computer assisted and conventional total knee arthroplasty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paras Kumar Mohanlal

    2013-01-01

    Conclusion: These results suggest that there is no significant difference in blood loss in CAS TKA and conventional TKA. This study also highlights the heterogeneity of methods used in studies related to CAS TKA. We believe that there is a need for a large multicenter prospective randomized controlled trial to be performed before a consensus can be reached on the influence of CAS techniques on blood loss during primary TKA.

  7. Leveraging Real-World Evidence in Disease-Management Decision-Making with a Total Cost of Care Estimator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Thanh-Nghia; Trocio, Jeffrey; Kowal, Stacey; Ferrufino, Cheryl P; Munakata, Julie; South, Dell

    2016-12-01

    Health management is becoming increasingly complex, given a range of care options and the need to balance costs and quality. The ability to measure and understand drivers of costs is critical for healthcare organizations to effectively manage their patient populations. Healthcare decision makers can leverage real-world evidence to explore the value of disease-management interventions in shifting total cost trends. To develop a real-world, evidence-based estimator that examines the impact of disease-management interventions on the total cost of care (TCoC) for a patient population with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Data were collected from a patient-level real-world evidence data set that uses the IMS PharMetrics Health Plan Claims Database. Pharmacy and medical claims for patients meeting the inclusion or exclusion criteria were combined in longitudinal cohorts with a 180-day preindex and 360-day follow-up period. Descriptive statistics, such as mean and median patient costs and event rates, were derived from a real-world evidence analysis and were used to populate the base-case estimates within the TCoC estimator, an exploratory economic model that was designed to estimate the potential impact of several disease-management activities on the TCoC for a patient population with NVAF. Using Microsoft Excel, the estimator is designed to compare current direct costs of medical care to projected costs by varying assumptions on the impact of disease-management activities and applying the associated changes in cost trends to the affected populations. Disease-management levers are derived from literature-based concepts affecting costs along the NVAF disease continuum. The use of the estimator supports analyses across 4 US geographic regions, age, cost types, and care settings during 1 year. All patients included in the study were continuously enrolled in their health plan (within the IMS PharMetrics Health Plan Claims Database) between July 1, 2010, and June 30

  8. Evaluation of Heat Losses Behind the Front of the Detonation Moving Along the Metallic Porous Surface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. V. Golovastov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers a computational technique of the heat flow from the hot products of detonation combustion into the porous coating and estimates the efficiency of the coating layer that results in slowing the flame front down with disregard the transverse displacement of the combustion products weight of a hydrogen-air mixture.Initial thermodynamic parameters of combustion products on the porous coating surface have been estimated. A drag (stagnation temperature of flow was determined.The statement of task was to calculate the heat flow into the long cylindrical metal fiber with radius of 15 μm. The reference values of heat capacity and heat diffusivity were used to estimate a thermal diffusivity in a wide range of temperatures. An approximation of the parameters is given for a wide range of temperatures.The calculation algorithm using an explicit four-point scheme is presented. The convergence and accuracy of the results were confirmed. The theoretical estimation using cylindrical Bessel functions was made to prove the accuracy of the results.Total heat loss was estimated using the photos of moving detonation front and hot combustion gases.Comparison of the total heat loss and the amount of energy absorbed by a single fiber allowed us to find that the porous coating thickness, resulting in attenuation of detonation wave, is efficient.

  9. CONNECTING FLARES AND TRANSIENT MASS-LOSS EVENTS IN MAGNETICALLY ACTIVE STARS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Osten, Rachel A. [Space Telescope Science Institute 3700 San Martin Drive, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Wolk, Scott J., E-mail: osten@stsci.edu [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge MA 02138 (United States)

    2015-08-10

    We explore the ramification of associating the energetics of extreme magnetic reconnection events with transient mass-loss in a stellar analogy with solar eruptive events. We establish energy partitions relative to the total bolometric radiated flare energy for different observed components of stellar flares and show that there is rough agreement for these values with solar flares. We apply an equipartition between the bolometric radiated flare energy and kinetic energy in an accompanying mass ejection, seen in solar eruptive events and expected from reconnection. This allows an integrated flare rate in a particular waveband to be used to estimate the amount of associated transient mass-loss. This approach is supported by a good correspondence between observational flare signatures on high flaring rate stars and the Sun, which suggests a common physical origin. If the frequent and extreme flares that young solar-like stars and low-mass stars experience are accompanied by transient mass-loss in the form of coronal mass ejections, then the cumulative effect of this mass-loss could be large. We find that for young solar-like stars and active M dwarfs, the total mass lost due to transient magnetic eruptions could have significant impacts on disk evolution, and thus planet formation, and also exoplanet habitability.

  10. Cystic echinococcosis in marketed offal of sheep in Basrah, Iraq: Abattoir-based survey and a probabilistic model estimation of the direct economic losses due to hydatid cyst.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdulhameed, Mohanad F; Habib, Ihab; Al-Azizz, Suzan A; Robertson, Ian

    2018-02-01

    Cystic echinococcosis (CE) is a highly endemic parasitic zoonosis in Iraq with substantial impacts on livestock productivity and human health. The objectives of this study were to study the abattoir-based occurrence of CE in marketed offal of sheep in Basrah province, Iraq, and to estimate, using a probabilistic modelling approach, the direct economic losses due to hydatid cysts. Based on detailed visual meat inspection, results from an active abattoir survey in this study revealed detection of hydatid cysts in 7.3% (95% CI: 5.4; 9.6) of 631 examined sheep carcasses. Post-mortem lesions of hydatid cyst were concurrently present in livers and lungs of more than half (54.3% (25/46)) of the positive sheep. Direct economic losses due to hydatid cysts in marketed offal were estimated using data from government reports, the one abattoir survey completed in this study, and expert opinions of local veterinarians and butchers. A Monte-Carlo simulation model was developed in a spreadsheet utilizing Latin Hypercube sampling to account for uncertainty in the input parameters. The model estimated that the average annual economic losses associated with hydatid cysts in the liver and lungs of sheep marketed for human consumption in Basrah to be US$72,470 (90% Confidence Interval (CI); ±11,302). The mean proportion of annual losses in meat products value (carcasses and offal) due to hydatid cysts in the liver and lungs of sheep marketed in Basrah province was estimated as 0.42% (90% CI; ±0.21). These estimates suggest that CE is responsible for considerable livestock-associated monetary losses in the south of Iraq. These findings can be used to inform different regional CE control program options in Iraq.

  11. Power transformer additional load losses separation procedure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostić Miloje M.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The proposed procedure is based on the fact that total transformer losses (PLL1,n, determined by short circuit test, can be separated into two components: the eddy current losses in the windings (PEC1,n and stray flux losses (PSL1,n in iron parts of construction as well as in the transformer tank walls. The total additional load losses, PLLd1 and PLLdh, are determined by short circuit test results, conducted at rated frequency (f1 and at increased harmonic frequency (fh=h*f1. Using so obtained total additional load losses, PLLd1 and PLLdh, which can be expressed in the form PLLdh=PEC1,n*h2 + PSL1,n*h, the corresponding rate additional load losses values PEC1,n and PSL1,n are derived. At the end, for given load with predefined high harmonics content, (Ih/I1n, relative to rated current, the total additional load losses value ΣPLLdh > PLLd1, is found. In such a way all harmonics up to hmax are taken into account.

  12. Analysis of total least squares in estimating the parameters of a mortar trajectory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lau, D.L.; Ng, L.C.

    1994-12-01

    Least Squares (LS) is a method of curve fitting used with the assumption that error exists in the observation vector. The method of Total Least Squares (TLS) is more useful in cases where there is error in the data matrix as well as the observation vector. This paper describes work done in comparing the LS and TLS results for parameter estimation of a mortar trajectory based on a time series of angular observations. To improve the results, we investigated several derivations of the LS and TLS methods, and early findings show TLS provided slightly, 10%, improved results over the LS method.

  13. The cost of productivity losses associated with allergic rhinitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crystal-Peters, J; Crown, W H; Goetzel, R Z; Schutt, D C

    2000-03-01

    To measure the cost of absenteeism and reduced productivity associated with allergic rhinitis. The National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) was used to obtain information on days lost from work and lost productivity due to allergic rhinitis. Wage estimates for occupations obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) were used to calculate the costs. Productivity losses associated with a diagnosis of allergic rhinitis in the 1995 NHIS were estimated to be $601 million. When additional survey information on the use of sedating over-the-counter (OTC) allergy medications, as well as workers' self-assessments of their reduction in at-work productivity due to allergic rhinitis, were considered, the estimated productivity loss increased dramatically. At-work productivity losses were estimated to range from $2.4 billion to $4.6 billion. Despite the inherent difficulty of measuring productivity losses, our lowest estimate is several times higher than previous estimates of the indirect medical costs associated with allergic rhinitis treatment. The most significant productivity losses resulted not from absenteeism but from reduced at-work productivity associated with the use of sedating OTC antihistamines.

  14. Uncertainty Model for Total Solar Irradiance Estimation on Australian Rooftops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Saadi, Hassan; Zivanovic, Rastko; Al-Sarawi, Said

    2017-11-01

    The installations of solar panels on Australian rooftops have been in rise for the last few years, especially in the urban areas. This motivates academic researchers, distribution network operators and engineers to accurately address the level of uncertainty resulting from grid-connected solar panels. The main source of uncertainty is the intermittent nature of radiation, therefore, this paper presents a new model to estimate the total radiation incident on a tilted solar panel. Where a probability distribution factorizes clearness index, the model is driven upon clearness index with special attention being paid for Australia with the utilization of best-fit-correlation for diffuse fraction. The assessment of the model validity is achieved with the adoption of four goodness-of-fit techniques. In addition, the Quasi Monte Carlo and sparse grid methods are used as sampling and uncertainty computation tools, respectively. High resolution data resolution of solar irradiations for Adelaide city were used for this assessment, with an outcome indicating a satisfactory agreement between actual data variation and model.

  15. Nutrient losses from cattle co-digestate slurry during storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Perazzolo

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Among environmental issues related to intensive livestock activity, emissions to air from manure management are of increasing concern. Thus the knowledge of the effect of treatment application on subsequent emissions from manure is required to assess the environment impact of management solutions. This work addresses the effect of anaerobic digestion and phase separation on emissions during storage by studying nitrogen losses from lab-scale stores and field pilot-scale stores of a co-digestate cattle slurry and its respective separated fractions. Lab-scale experiment was carried in temperature-controlled room where each fraction (untreated, separated liquid and separated solid was stored in duplicate for a period of 32 days in 30 L vessel. Pilot-scale experiment was carried out both during the cold season and during warm season for 90 days of storage. In both experimentations samples of the manure were analysed periodically for total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN, total ammonia nitrogen, dry matter and volatile solids and pH. These analyses allow estimating nitrogen losses in different storage conditions. Effects of mechanical separation and season were assessed by ANOVA (Wilcoxon test, P<0.05. In temperature controlled conditions nitrogen losses measured account for 13% and 26% of TKN for unseparated and separated slurries respectively. In field conditions during cold season nutrient losses were limited. On average unseparated and separated slurries lost respectively 6.8% and 12.6% of their initial TKN content. Much higher were the TKN losses from the slurries examined in warm season where losses raised up to 40% of the initial TKN content. Generally mechanical separation increases nutrient losses, but the differences were not significant in field conditions. The results highlighted that nutrient losses, in particular the nitrogen ones, can be considerable especially during summer storage. The latter, in case of separated slurries, are mainly related

  16. Land Cover Mapping using GEOBIA to Estimate Loss of Salacca zalacca Trees in Landslide Area of Clapar, Madukara District of Banjarnegara

    Science.gov (United States)

    Permata, Anggi; Juniansah, Anwar; Nurcahyati, Eka; Dimas Afrizal, Mousafi; Adnan Shafry Untoro, Muhammad; Arifatha, Na'ima; Ramadhani Yudha Adiwijaya, Raden; Farda, Nur Mohammad

    2016-11-01

    Landslide is an unpredictable natural disaster which commonly happens in highslope area. Aerial photography in small format is one of acquisition method that can reach and obtain high resolution spatial data faster than other methods, and provide data such as orthomosaic and Digital Surface Model (DSM). The study area contained landslide area in Clapar, Madukara District of Banjarnegara. Aerial photographs of landslide area provided advantage in objects visibility. Object's characters such as shape, size, and texture were clearly seen, therefore GEOBIA (Geography Object Based Image Analysis) was compatible as method for classifying land cover in study area. Dissimilar with PPA (PerPixel Analyst) method that used spectral information as base object detection, GEOBIA could use spatial elements as classification basis to establish a land cover map with better accuracy. GEOBIA method used classification hierarchy to divide post disaster land cover into three main objects: vegetation, landslide/soil, and building. Those three were required to obtain more detailed information that can be used in estimating loss caused by landslide and establishing land cover map in landslide area. Estimating loss in landslide area related to damage in Salak (Salacca zalacca) plantations. This estimation towards quantity of Salak tree that were drifted away by landslide was calculated in assumption that every tree damaged by landslide had same age and production class with other tree that weren't damaged. Loss calculation was done by approximating quantity of damaged trees in landslide area with data of trees around area that were acquired from GEOBIA classification method.

  17. Near-real-time and scenario earthquake loss estimates for Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyss, M.; Zuñiga, R.

    2017-12-01

    The large earthquakes of 8 September 2017, M8.1, and 19 September 2017, M7.1 have focused attention on the dangers of Mexican seismicity. The near-real-time alerts by QLARM estimated 10 to 300 fatalities and 0 to 200 fatalities, respectively. At the time of this submission the reported death tolls are 96 and 226, respectively. These alerts were issued within 96 and 57 minutes of the occurrence times. For the M8.1 earthquake the losses due to a line model could be calculated. The line with length L=110 km extended from the initial epicenter to the NE, where the USGS had reported aftershocks. On September 19, no aftershocks were available in near-real-time, so a point source had to be used for the quick calculation of likely casualties. In both cases, the casualties were at least an order of magnitude smaller than what they could have been because on 8 September the source was relatively far offshore and on 19 September the hypocenter was relatively deep. The largest historic earthquake in Mexico occurred on 28 March 1787 and likely had a rupture length of 450 km and M8.6. Based on this event, and after verifying our tool for Mexico, we estimated the order of magnitude of a disaster, given the current population, in a maximum credible earthquake along the Pacific coast. In the countryside along the coast we expect approximately 27,000 fatalities and 480,000 injured. In the special case of Mexico City the casualties in a worst possible earthquake along the Pacific plate boundary would likely be counted as five digit numbers. The large agglomerate of the capital with its lake bed soil attracts most attention. Nevertheless, one should pay attention to the fact that the poor, rural segment of society, living in buildings of weak resistance to shaking, are likely to sustain a mortality rate about 20% larger than the population in cities on average soil.

  18. Losses of soil carbon by converting tropical forest to plantations: erosion and decomposition estimated by δ(13) C.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillaume, Thomas; Damris, Muhammad; Kuzyakov, Yakov

    2015-09-01

    Indonesia lost more tropical forest than all of Brazil in 2012, mainly driven by the rubber, oil palm, and timber industries. Nonetheless, the effects of converting forest to oil palm and rubber plantations on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks remain unclear. We analyzed SOC losses after lowland rainforest conversion to oil palm, intensive rubber, and extensive rubber plantations in Jambi Province on Sumatra Island. The focus was on two processes: (1) erosion and (2) decomposition of soil organic matter. Carbon contents in the Ah horizon under oil palm and rubber plantations were strongly reduced up to 70% and 62%, respectively. The decrease was lower under extensive rubber plantations (41%). On average, converting forest to plantations led to a loss of 10 Mg C ha(-1) after about 15 years of conversion. The C content in the subsoil was similar under the forest and the plantations. We therefore assumed that a shift to higher δ(13) C values in plantation subsoil corresponds to the losses from the upper soil layer by erosion. Erosion was estimated by comparing the δ(13) C profiles in the soils under forest and under plantations. The estimated erosion was the strongest in oil palm (35 ± 8 cm) and rubber (33 ± 10 cm) plantations. The (13) C enrichment of SOC used as a proxy of its turnover indicates a decrease of SOC decomposition rate in the Ah horizon under oil palm plantations after forest conversion. Nonetheless, based on the lack of C input from litter, we expect further losses of SOC in oil palm plantations, which are a less sustainable land use compared to rubber plantations. We conclude that δ(13) C depth profiles may be a powerful tool to disentangle soil erosion and SOC mineralization after the conversion of natural ecosystems conversion to intensive plantations when soils show gradual increase of δ(13) C values with depth. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Use of total body electrical conductivity (TOBEC) to determine total body water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cochran, W.; Wong, W.; Sheng, H.P.; Klein, P.; Klish, W.

    1986-01-01

    Total body electrical conductivity (TOBEC) has been introduced as a safe and rapid method to estimate body composition in infants and adults. Recently, a second generation instrument that operates in a scanning mode has been developed. A study was undertaken to calibrate this new instrument and to assess the feasibility of its use in estimating total body water. Six healthy adults, 3 males and 3 females, ranging in age from 25 to 57 years, and in weight from 43.3 to 104.7 kg were analyzed. Simultaneously, determinations of total body water were made by standard dilutional techniques using H 2 18 O. A baseline plasma sample was obtained and 60 mg 18 O/kg was given orally as H 2 18 O. Five hr later, a postdose plasma sample was obtained. The 18 O/ 16 O ratio in the plasma samples was determined as CO 2 by gas-isotope-ratio mass spectrometry and used to calculate the H 2 18 O volume of distribution. The total body water values ranged from 26.35 to 58.02 and represented 51 to 58% of body weight. There was good linear correlation between the total body water measurement and its phase average (TOBEC number) with a linear correlation coefficient of 0.998. The standard error of the estimate was 0.98. In addition to estimating fat and fat-free mass, the TOBEC method also estimates total body water with excellent correlation to physical dilutions methods

  20. Stochastic Modeling of Empirical Storm Loss in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prahl, B. F.; Rybski, D.; Kropp, J. P.; Burghoff, O.; Held, H.

    2012-04-01

    Based on German insurance loss data for residential property we derive storm damage functions that relate daily loss with maximum gust wind speed. Over a wide range of loss, steep power law relationships are found with spatially varying exponents ranging between approximately 8 and 12. Global correlations between parameters and socio-demographic data are employed to reduce the number of local parameters to 3. We apply a Monte Carlo approach to calculate German loss estimates including confidence bounds in daily and annual resolution. Our model reproduces the annual progression of winter storm losses and enables to estimate daily losses over a wide range of magnitude.

  1. GLP-1 receptor agonist treatment increases bone formation and prevents bone loss in weight-reduced obese women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iepsen, Eva Pers Winning; Lundgren, Julie Rehné; Hartmann, Bolette

    2015-01-01

    with or without administration of the GLP-1 RA liraglutide (1.2mg/day) for 52 weeks. In case of weight gain, up to two meals per day could be substituted with a low-calorie diet product in order to maintain the weight loss. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Total, pelvic and arm-leg bone mineral content (BMC) and bone...... markers (CTX-1 and P1NP) were investigated before, after weight loss and after 52 weeks weight maintenance. Primary end points: Change in BMC and bone markers after 52 weeks weight maintenance with or without GLP-1 RA treatment. RESULTS: Total, pelvic and arm-leg BMC decreased during weight maintenance...... in the control group (ptotal and arm-leg BMC loss was 4 times greater in the control group compared to the liraglutide group (estimated difference 27g (95% CI 5-48), p=0.01), although the 12% weight loss was maintained in both groups...

  2. Total cost estimates for large-scale wind scenarios in UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dale, Lewis; Milborrow, David; Slark, Richard; Strbac, Goran

    2004-01-01

    The recent UK Energy White Paper suggested that the Government should aim to secure 20% of electricity from renewable sources by 2020. A number of estimates of the extra cost of such a commitment have been made, but these have not necessarily included all the relevant cost components. This analysis sets out to identify these and to calculate the extra cost to the electricity consumer, assuming all the renewable electricity is sourced from wind energy. This enables one of the more controversial issues--the implications of wind intermittency--to be addressed. The basis of the assumptions associated with generating costs, extra balancing costs and distribution and transmission system reinforcement costs are all clearly identified and the total costs of a '20% wind' scenario are compared with a scenario where a similar amount of energy is generated by gas-fired plant. This enables the extra costs of the renewables scenario to be determined. The central estimate of the extra costs to electricity consumers is just over 0.3 p/kW h in current prices (around 5% extra on average domestic unit prices). Sensitivity analyses examine the implications of differing assumptions. The extra cost would rise if the capital costs of wind generation fall slower than anticipated, but would fall if gas prices rise more rapidly than has been assumed, or if wind plant are more productive. Even if it is assumed that wind has no capacity displacement value, the added cost to the electricity consumer rises by less than 0.1 p/kW h. It is concluded that there does not appear to be any technical reason why a substantial proportion of the country's electricity requirements could not be delivered by wind

  3. Quality criteria, expiration period and marketing loss estimations of pre-treated and cold stored mullet fish.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan, Ibrahim M.

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring of protein breakdown products and lipid autoxidation in farmed mullet fish as a function of a proposed treatments prior to chilling process at 3 °C ± 1 was carried out. Furthermore, sensory evaluation of three investigated treatments, whole mullet fish (RM-eviscerated and soaked in distilled water (WSRM-eviscerated and soaked in a solution containing 5% K-sorbate + 5% Na4P2O7 + 2% Na-citrate + 0.2% ascorbic acid (SSRM, were followed during chilling storage. Estimation of the predicted length of cold storage period as well as the marketing losses of the marketable mullet fish was also elucidated. The marketing losses of mullet fish at whole or retail market levels were also estimated by using a pre-tested questionnaire. Total volatile basic nitrogen (TVB-N and trimethylamine nitrogen (TMA-N increased concomitantly during cold storage of differently treated mullet fish. Moreover, lipid oxidation and hydrolysis products were followed by determining peroxide value (PV, thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS and ratio of absorbance (A400/A450 as well as acid value (AV and free volatile fatty acids (FVFA. Mostly, these parameters show upward trend with different rates depending on the applied treatment. Soaking treatment greatly retarded fish spoilage during cold storage. As regards, SSRM samples withstand spoilage up to about 15 days compared to only 8 and 9 days for both RM and WSRM samples, respectively.

    El trabajo presenta los resultados de la evolución de productos de rotura de proteínas y de la autoxidación de lípidos del pescado mujol criado en cautividad en función de los tratamientos propuestos antes de su enfriamiento a 3 °C ± 1. Además se sigue la evolución organoléptica durante el almacenamiento en frío de tres tratamientos: pez entero sin vísceras (RM, sin vísceras sumergido en agua destilada (WSRM y sumergido en una solución conteniendo 5

  4. The role of seasonal migration in the near-total loss of caribou on south-central Canadian Arctic Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank L. Miller

    2007-04-01

    estimated 5097 1+ yr-old caribou in 1980 to fewer than 100 1+ yr-old caribou in 1995 (Gunn & Decker, 1984; Miller, 1997; Gunn & Dragon, 1998; Gunn et al., 2006. This loss of caribou on those islands amounts to a near-total loss of a genetically distinctive group of Arctic-island caribou (e.g., Zittlau, 2004. In contrast, the estimated number of caribou in the geographic population on Boothia Peninsula appeared to increase by 1.4-fold from 4831 to 6658 1+ yr-old caribou between 1985 and 1995, although annual harvesting pressure was heavy. It was biologically impossible for the Boothia Peninsula geographic population at its 1985 estimated size to have persisted until 1995, let alone to have increased, under the estimated average annual harvest regime of 1100 1+ yr-old caribou • yr-1. There is no evidence that the Boothia Peninsula population was underestimated in 1985. It would have required a population in 1985 at least twice as great as the calculated estimate to sustain the estimated annual harvest between 1985 and 1995. An underestimate of such magnitude is too great to be probable. In our examination of the survey results, we could find no reason to question that the calculated population estimates were not reasonable approximations. The fixed-wing aerial surveys in 1980 (Gunn & Decker, 1984, 1985 (Gunn & Ashevak, 1990, and 1995 (Gunn & Dragon, 1998 were highly comparable, well designed and executed, using standard procedures for a fixed-width, strip-transect, systematic aerial survey of caribou. One of the two observers was the same experienced survey biologist in all 3 years, the second observer in 1980 was an experienced survey biologist and in 1985 and 1995 was an experienced Inuit hunter familiar with the area, and the pilot was the same on all surveys and had flown many systematic surveys of caribou on the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and mainland Canada. Helicopter searches of known caribou ranges on Prince of Wales, Russell, and Somerset islands that were

  5. Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model to Estimate Natural-Hazard Loss and Risk - A Hypothetical Demonstration for Ventura County, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinitz, Laura B.

    2008-01-01

    With costs of natural disasters skyrocketing and populations increasingly settling in areas vulnerable to natural hazards, society is challenged to better allocate its limited risk-reduction resources. In 2000, Congress passed the Disaster Mitigation Act, amending the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, Pub. L. 93-288, 1988; Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002, 2008b; Disaster Mitigation Act, 2000), mandating that State, local, and tribal communities prepare natural-hazard mitigation plans to qualify for pre-disaster mitigation grants and post-disaster aid. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was assigned to coordinate and implement hazard-mitigation programs, and it published information about specific mitigation-plan requirements and the mechanisms (through the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program-HMGP) for distributing funds (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002). FEMA requires that each community develop a mitigation strategy outlining long-term goals to reduce natural-hazard vulnerability, mitigation objectives and specific actions to reduce the impacts of natural hazards, and an implementation plan for those actions. The implementation plan should explain methods for prioritizing, implementing, and administering the actions, along with a 'cost-benefit review' justifying the prioritization. FEMA, along with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS), supported the development of HAZUS ('Hazards U.S.'), a geospatial natural-hazards loss-estimation tool, to help communities quantify potential losses and to aid in the selection and prioritization of mitigation actions. HAZUS was expanded to a multiple-hazard version, HAZUS-MH, that combines population, building, and natural-hazard science and economic data and models to estimate physical damages, replacement costs, and business interruption for specific natural-hazard scenarios. HAZUS

  6. Mapping and estimating land change between 2001 and 2013 in a heterogeneous landscape in West Africa: Loss of forestlands and capacity building opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badjana, Hèou Maléki; Olofsson, Pontus; Woodcock, Curtis E.; Helmschrot, Joerg; Wala, Kpérkouma; Akpagana, Koffi

    2017-12-01

    In West Africa, accurate classification of land cover and land change remains a big challenge due to the patchy and heterogeneous nature of the landscape. Limited data availability, human resources and technical capacities, further exacerbate the challenge. The result is a region that is among the more understudied areas in the world, which in turn has resulted in a lack of appropriate information required for sustainable natural resources management. The objective of this paper is to explore open source software and easy-to-implement approaches to mapping and estimation of land change that are transferrable to local institutions to increase capacity in the region, and to provide updated information on the regional land surface dynamics. To achieve these objectives, stable land cover and land change between 2001 and 2013 in the Kara River Basin in Togo and Benin were mapped by direct multitemporal classification of Landsat data by parameterization and evaluation of two machine-learning algorithms. Areas of land cover and change were estimated by application of an unbiased estimator to sample data following international guidelines. A prerequisite for all tools and methods was implementation in an open source environment, and adherence to international guidelines for reporting land surface activities. Findings include a recommendation of the Random Forests algorithm as implemented in Orfeo Toolbox, and a stratified estimation protocol - all executed in the QGIS graphical use interface. It was found that despite an estimated reforestation of 10,0727 ± 3480 ha (95% confidence interval), the combined rate of forest and savannah loss amounted to 56,271 ± 9405 ha (representing a 16% loss of the forestlands present in 2001), resulting in a rather sharp net loss of forestlands in the study area. These dynamics had not been estimated prior to this study, and the results will provide useful information for decision making pertaining to natural resources management, land

  7. Atmospheric mass-loss of extrasolar planets orbiting magnetically active host stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalitha, Sairam; Schmitt, J. H. M. M.; Dash, Spandan

    2018-06-01

    Magnetic stellar activity of exoplanet hosts can lead to the production of large amounts of high-energy emission, which irradiates extrasolar planets, located in the immediate vicinity of such stars. This radiation is absorbed in the planets' upper atmospheres, which consequently heat up and evaporate, possibly leading to an irradiation-induced mass-loss. We present a study of the high-energy emission in the four magnetically active planet-bearing host stars, Kepler-63, Kepler-210, WASP-19, and HAT-P-11, based on new XMM-Newton observations. We find that the X-ray luminosities of these stars are rather high with orders of magnitude above the level of the active Sun. The total XUV irradiation of these planets is expected to be stronger than that of well-studied hot Jupiters. Using the estimated XUV luminosities as the energy input to the planetary atmospheres, we obtain upper limits for the total mass- loss in these hot Jupiters.

  8. The cost of vision loss in Canada. 1. Methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Keith D; Cruess, Alan F; Bellan, Lorne; Mitchell, Scott; Pezzullo, M Lynne

    2011-08-01

    This paper outlines the methodology used to estimate the cost of vision loss in Canada. The results of this study will be presented in a second paper. The cost of vision loss (VL) in Canada was estimated using a prevalence-based approach. This was done by estimating the number of people with VL in a base period (2007) and the costs associated with treating them. The cost estimates included direct health system expenditures on eye conditions that cause VL, as well as other indirect financial costs such as productivity losses. Estimates were also made of the value of the loss of healthy life, measured in Disability Adjusted Life Years or DALY's. To estimate the number of cases of VL in the population, epidemiological data on prevalence rates were applied to population data. The number of cases of VL was stratified by gender, age, ethnicity, severity and cause. The following sources were used for estimating prevalence: Population-based eye studies; Canadian Surveys; Canadian journal articles and research studies; and International Population Based Eye Studies. Direct health costs were obtained primarily from Health Canada and Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) sources, while costs associated with productivity losses were based on employment information compiled by Statistics Canada and on economic theory of productivity loss. Costs related to vision rehabilitation (VR) were obtained from Canadian VR organizations. This study shows that it is possible to estimate the costs for VL for a country in the absence of ongoing local epidemiological studies. Copyright © 2011 Canadian Ophthalmological Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Evaluation of total loss of feedwater accident/recovery phase and investigation of the associated EOP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bang, Young Seok; Seul, Kwang Won; Kim, Hho Jung

    1993-01-01

    To evaluate the sequence of event and the thermohydraulic behavior during total loss of feedwater accident and recovery procedure, a RELAP5/MOD3 calculation is performed and compared with the LOFT L9-1/L3-3 experiment. Also, the predictability of the code for the major thermohydraulic phenomena following the accident is assessed. As a result, it is found that a pressure control using the spray until the time the water level reaches the top of the pressurizer, an overpressure protection by pressurizer PORV, a recovery of the secondary heat removal capability by refilling steam generator, and an effective cooldown by the continued natural circulation can be perfomed without core uncovery. It is also found that the plantspecific evaluation is necessary to confirm the effectiveness of the current symptom-oriented emergency operating procedure, especially in an overpressure protection performance and steam generator recovery performance. (Author)

  10. Visual loss in a school for the blind in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okoye, O I; Aghaji, A E; Ikojo, I N

    2009-01-01

    There are an estimated 1.4 million blind children worldwide, it has been observed that almost 90% of the so-called blind population (children inclusive) do not have total loss of visual function, but retain a degree of usable residual vision. The study aims to determined the sites and causes of visual loss in the students of a school for the blind in Nigeria, and also the proportion of those students who could benefit from low vision devices. Forty-five students of the school were examined using the standard World Health Organization/Prevention of blindness examination record for childhood blindness. Refraction and assessment for low vision devices were conducted, where necessary. Glaucoma/buphthalmos (22.2%) and corneal lesions (20%) were the major causes of vision loss. Six students (13.3%) benefited from spectacles and/or low vision devices. Glaucoma/buphthalmos is assuming great significance in this study population, though most of the causes of vision loss are avoidable (77.7%). There is need for low vision service in the schools for the blind in South East Nigeria.

  11. Probabilistic, Multivariable Flood Loss Modeling on the Mesoscale with BT-FLEMO.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Merz, Bruno; Schröter, Kai

    2017-04-01

    Flood loss modeling is an important component for risk analyses and decision support in flood risk management. Commonly, flood loss models describe complex damaging processes by simple, deterministic approaches like depth-damage functions and are associated with large uncertainty. To improve flood loss estimation and to provide quantitative information about the uncertainty associated with loss modeling, a probabilistic, multivariable Bagging decision Tree Flood Loss Estimation MOdel (BT-FLEMO) for residential buildings was developed. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated losses to residential buildings per municipality. BT-FLEMO was applied and validated at the mesoscale in 19 municipalities that were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Validation was undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with six deterministic loss models, including both depth-damage functions and multivariable models. On the other hand, the results were compared with official loss data. BT-FLEMO outperforms deterministic, univariable, and multivariable models with regard to model accuracy, although the prediction uncertainty remains high. An important advantage of BT-FLEMO is the quantification of prediction uncertainty. The probability distribution of loss estimates by BT-FLEMO well represents the variation range of loss estimates of the other models in the case study. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Verifying cell loss requirements in high-speed communication networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry W. Fendick

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available In high-speed communication networks it is common to have requirements of very small cell loss probabilities due to buffer overflow. Losses are measured to verify that the cell loss requirements are being met, but it is not clear how to interpret such measurements. We propose methods for determining whether or not cell loss requirements are being met. A key idea is to look at the stream of losses as successive clusters of losses. Often clusters of losses, rather than individual losses, should be regarded as the important “loss events”. Thus we propose modeling the cell loss process by a batch Poisson stochastic process. Successive clusters of losses are assumed to arrive according to a Poisson process. Within each cluster, cell losses do not occur at a single time, but the distance between losses within a cluster should be negligible compared to the distance between clusters. Thus, for the purpose of estimating the cell loss probability, we ignore the spaces between successive cell losses in a cluster of losses. Asymptotic theory suggests that the counting process of losses initiating clusters often should be approximately a Poisson process even though the cell arrival process is not nearly Poisson. The batch Poisson model is relatively easy to test statistically and fit; e.g., the batch-size distribution and the batch arrival rate can readily be estimated from cell loss data. Since batch (cluster sizes may be highly variable, it may be useful to focus on the number of batches instead of the number of cells in a measurement interval. We also propose a method for approximately determining the parameters of a special batch Poisson cell loss with geometric batch-size distribution from a queueing model of the buffer content. For this step, we use a reflected Brownian motion (RBM approximation of a G/D/1/C queueing model. We also use the RBM model to estimate the input burstiness given the cell loss rate. In addition, we use the RBM model to

  13. Estimation of Filling and Afterload Conditions by Pump Intrinsic Parameters in a Pulsatile Total Artificial Heart.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuenca-Navalon, Elena; Laumen, Marco; Finocchiaro, Thomas; Steinseifer, Ulrich

    2016-07-01

    A physiological control algorithm is being developed to ensure an optimal physiological interaction between the ReinHeart total artificial heart (TAH) and the circulatory system. A key factor for that is the long-term, accurate determination of the hemodynamic state of the cardiovascular system. This study presents a method to determine estimation models for predicting hemodynamic parameters (pump chamber filling and afterload) from both left and right cardiovascular circulations. The estimation models are based on linear regression models that correlate filling and afterload values with pump intrinsic parameters derived from measured values of motor current and piston position. Predictions for filling lie in average within 5% from actual values, predictions for systemic afterload (AoPmean , AoPsys ) and mean pulmonary afterload (PAPmean ) lie in average within 9% from actual values. Predictions for systolic pulmonary afterload (PAPsys ) present an average deviation of 14%. The estimation models show satisfactory prediction and confidence intervals and are thus suitable to estimate hemodynamic parameters. This method and derived estimation models are a valuable alternative to implanted sensors and are an essential step for the development of a physiological control algorithm for a fully implantable TAH. Copyright © 2015 International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Real time loss detection for SNM in process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Candy, J.V.; Dunn, D.R.; Gavel, D.T.

    1980-01-01

    This paper discusses the basis of a design for real time special nuclear material (SNM) loss detectors. The design utilizes process measurements and signal processing techniques to produce a timely estimate of material loss. A state estimator is employed as the primary signal processing algorithm. Material loss is indicated by changes in the states or process innovations (residuals). The design philosophy is discussed in the context of these changes

  15. Estimating Total Claim Size in the Auto Insurance Industry: a Comparison between Tweedie and Zero-Adjusted Inverse Gaussian Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Bruscato Bortoluzzo

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this article is to estimate insurance claims from an auto dataset using the Tweedie and zero-adjusted inverse Gaussian (ZAIG methods. We identify factors that influence claim size and probability, and compare the results of these methods which both forecast outcomes accurately. Vehicle characteristics like territory, age, origin and type distinctly influence claim size and probability. This distinct impact is not always present in the Tweedie estimated model. Auto insurers should consider estimating total claim size using both the Tweedie and ZAIG methods. This allows for an estimation of confidence interval based on empirical quantiles using bootstrap simulation. Furthermore, the fitted models may be useful in developing a strategy to obtain premium pricing.

  16. Beyond deficit or compensation: new insights on postural control after long-term total visual loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, Maitê M; Lemos, Thiago; Imbiriba, Luís A; Ribeiro, Nathalia L; Vargas, Claudia D

    2017-02-01

    Loss of vision is well known to affect postural control in blind subjects. This effect has classically been framed in terms of deficit or compensation depending on whether body sway increases or decreases in comparison with that of sighted subjects with the eyes open. However, studies have shown that postural responses can be modulated by the context and that changes in postural sway may not necessarily mean a worsened or improved postural control. The goal of our study was to test whether balance is affected by the context in blind subjects. Additional to the quantification of center of pressure (COP) displacement, measurements of body motion (COG) and the correspondent net neuromuscular response (COP-COG) were evaluated in anterior-posterior and medial-lateral directions. Thirty-eight completely blind and thirty-two sighted subjects participated of this study. The volunteers were asked to stand barefoot on a force platform for 60 s in two different conditions: feet apart and feet together. Sighted participants performed the tests with both the eyes open and eyes closed. Results showed that the COP-COG displacements in the blind group were greater than those of the sighted group with eyes open in almost all conditions tested, but not in eyes closed condition. However, the COP and COG results confirmed that the postural responses were context dependent. Together these results suggest that total visual loss does not just lead to a balance deficit or compensation, but to a specific postural signature that might imply in enhancing COP, COG and/or COP-COG in specific postural conditions.

  17. Probabilistic, meso-scale flood loss modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk analyses are an important basis for decisions on flood risk management and adaptation. However, such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments and even more for flood loss modelling. State of the art in flood loss modelling is still the use of simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood loss models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we demonstrate and evaluate the upscaling of the approach to the meso-scale, namely on the basis of land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany (Botto et al. submitted). The application of bagging decision tree based loss models provide a probability distribution of estimated loss per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight deterministic loss models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of loss estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation approach is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. References: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64. Botto A, Kreibich H, Merz B, Schröter K (submitted) Probabilistic, multi-variable flood loss modelling on the meso-scale with BT-FLEMO. Risk Analysis.

  18. Estimating the magnitude of prediction uncertainties for field-scale P loss models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. While it is commonly recognized that model predictions are inherently uncertain, few studies have addressed prediction uncertainties using P loss models. In this study, an uncertainty analysis for the Annual P Loss Estima...

  19. Identification of LHC beam loss mechanism : a deterministic treatment of loss patterns

    CERN Document Server

    Marsili, Aurélien

    CERN's Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is the largest machine ever built, with a total circumference of 26.7 km; and it is the most powerful accelerator ever, both in beam energy and beam intensity. The main magnets are superconducting, keeping the particles into two counter circulating beams, which collide in four interaction points. CERN and the LHC will be described in chap. 1. The superconducting magnets of the LHC have to be protected against particle losses. Depending on the number of lost particles, the coils of the magnets will become normal conducting and/or will be damaged. To avoid these events a beam loss monitoring (BLM) system was installed to measure the particle loss rates. If the predefined safe thresholds of loss rates are exceeded, the beams are directed out of the accelerator ring towards the beam dump. The detectors of the BLM system are mainly ionization chambers located outside of the cryostats. In total, about 3500 ionisation chambers are installed. Further challenges include the high dyna...

  20. Estimation of Water Footprint Compartments in National Wheat Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Ababaei

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Water use and pollution have raised to a critical level in many compartments of the world. If humankind is to meet the challenges over the coming fifty years, the agricultural share of water use has to be substantially reduced. In this study, a modern yet simple approach has been proposed through the introduction concept ‘Water Footprint’ (WF. This concept can be used to study the connection between each product and the water allocation to produce that product. This research estimates the green, blue and gray WF of wheat in Iran. Also a new WF compartment (white is used that is related about irrigation water loss. Materials and Methods: The national green (Effective precipitation, blue (Net irrigation requirement, gray (For diluting chemical fertilizers and white (Irrigation water losses water footprints (WF of wheat production were estimated for fifteen major wheat producing provinces of Iran. Evapotranspiration, irrigation requirement, gross irrigation requirement and effective rainfall were got using the AGWAT model. Yields of irrigated and rain-fed lands of each province were got from Iran Agricultural-Jihad Ministry. Another compartment of the wheat production WF is related about the volume of water required to assimilate the fertilizers leached in runoff (gray WF. Moreover, a new concept of white water footprint was proposed here and represents irrigation water losses, which was neglected in the original calculation framework. Finally, the national WF compartments of wheat production were estimated by taking the average of each compartment over all the provinces weighted by the share of each province in total wheat production of the selected provinces. Results and Discussion: In 2006-2012, more than 67% of the national wheat production was irrigated and 32.3% were rain-fed, on average, while 37.9% of the total wheat-cultivated lands were irrigated and 62.1% was rain-fed from more than 6,568 -ha. The total national WF of

  1. Trapped sweat in basketball uniforms and the effect on sweat loss estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Lindsay B; Reimel, Adam J; Sopeña, Bridget C; Barnes, Kelly A; Nuccio, Ryan P; De Chavez, Peter John D; Stofan, John R; Carter, James M

    2017-09-01

    The aims of this study were to determine: (1) trapped sweat (TS) in basketball uniforms and the effect on sweat loss (SL) estimates during a laboratory-based basketball simulation protocol; (2) the impact of exercise intensity, body mass, age, and SL on TS; and (3) TS during on-court training to assess the ecological validity of the laboratory-based results. Twenty-four recreational/competitive male basketball players (23 ± 10 years, 77.0 ± 16.7 kg) completed three randomized laboratory-based trials (Low, Moderate, and High intensity) consisting of 150-min intermittent exercise. Eighteen elite male players (23 ± 4 years, 92.0 ± 20.6 kg) were observed during coach-led, on-court training. Nude and clothed body mass were measured pre and postexercise to determine TS. Data are mean ± SD. There was a significant effect of intensity on SL and TS ( P  Inc. on behalf of The Physiological Society and the American Physiological Society.

  2. Methods for estimating heterocyclic amine concentrations in cooked meats in the US diet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keating, G A; Bogen, K T

    2001-01-01

    Heterocyclic amines (HAs) are formed in numerous cooked foods commonly consumed in the diet. A method was developed to estimate dietary HA levels using HA concentrations in experimentally cooked meats reported in the literature and meat consumption data obtained from a national dietary survey. Cooking variables (meat internal temperature and weight loss, surface temperature and time) were used to develop relationships for estimating total HA concentrations in six meat types. Concentrations of five individual HAs were estimated for specific meat type/cooking method combinations based on linear regression of total and individual HA values obtained from the literature. Using these relationships, total and individual HA concentrations were estimated for 21 meat type/cooking method combinations at four meat doneness levels. Reported consumption of the 21 meat type/cooking method combinations was obtained from a national dietary survey and the age-specific daily HA intake calculated using the estimated HA concentrations (ng/g) and reported meat intakes. Estimated mean daily total HA intakes for children (to age 15 years) and adults (30+ years) were 11 and 7.0 ng/kg/day, respectively, with 2-amino-1-methyl-6-phenylimidazo[4,5-b]pyridine (PhIP) estimated to comprise approximately 65% of each intake. Pan-fried meats were the largest source of HA in the diet and chicken the largest source of HAs among the different meat types.

  3. Effect of loss cone on confinement in toroidal helical device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itoh, K.; Itoh, S.-I.; Fukuyama, A.; Hanatani, K.

    1988-12-01

    Analytical estimation is given on the loss cone in the toroidal helical devices in the presence of the radial electric field and the modulation of the helical ripple. The minimum energy of particles entering the loss cone is calculated. The modulation is not always effective in reducing the loss in the presence of the radial electric field. The plasma loss due to the loss cone is estimated in the collisionless limit. The radial electric field is estimated in the presence of the loss cone. It is found that the transition to the solution with positive radial electric field, which is necessary to achieve the high-ion-temperature mode, becomes difficult. This difficulty is large for the systems with the small helical ripple. (author)

  4. Fermented dairy products consumption is associated with attenuated cortical bone loss independently of total calcium, protein, and energy intakes in healthy postmenopausal women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biver, E; Durosier-Izart, C; Merminod, F; Chevalley, T; van Rietbergen, B; Ferrari, S L; Rizzoli, R

    2018-05-03

    A longitudinal analysis of bone microstructure in postmenopausal women of the Geneva Retirees Cohort indicates that age-related cortical bone loss is attenuated at non-bearing bone sites in fermented dairy products consumers, not in milk or ripened cheese consumers, independently of total energy, calcium, or protein intakes. Fermented dairy products (FDP), including yogurts, provide calcium, phosphorus, and proteins together with prebiotics and probiotics, all being potentially beneficial for bone. In this prospective cohort study, we investigated whether FDP, milk, or ripened cheese consumptions influence age-related changes of bone mineral density (BMD) and microstructure. Dietary intakes were assessed at baseline and after 3.0 ± 0.5 years with a food frequency questionnaire in 482 postmenopausal women enrolled in the Geneva Retirees Cohort. Cortical (Ct) and trabecular (Tb) volumetric (v) BMD and microstructure at the distal radius and tibia were assessed by high-resolution peripheral quantitative computerized tomography, in addition to areal (a) BMD and body composition by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, at the same time points. At baseline, FDP consumers had lower abdominal fat mass and larger bone size at the radius and tibia. Parathyroid hormone and β-carboxyterminal cross-linked telopeptide of type I collagen levels were inversely correlated with FDP consumption. In the longitudinal analysis, FDP consumption (mean of the two assessments) was associated with attenuated loss of radius total vBMD and of Ct vBMD, area, and thickness. There was no difference in aBMD and at the tibia. These associations were independent of total energy, calcium, or protein intakes. For other dairy products categories, only milk consumption was associated with lower decrease of aBMD and of failure load at the radius. In this prospective cohort of healthy postmenopausal women, age-related Ct bone loss was attenuated at non-bearing bone sites in FDP consumers, not in milk

  5. MRI estimation of total renal volume demonstrates significant association with healthy donor weight

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, Emil I.; Kelly, Sarah A.; Edye, Michael; Mitty, Harold A.; Bromberg, Jonathan S.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to correlate total renal volume (TRV) calculations, obtained through the voxel-count method and ellipsoid formula with various physical characteristics. Materials and methods: MRI reports and physical examination from 210 healthy kidney donors (420 kidneys), on whom renal volumes were obtained using the voxel-count method, were retrospectively reviewed. These values along with ones obtained through a more traditional method (ellipsoid formula) were correlated with subject height, body weight, body mass index (BMI), and age. Results: TRV correlated strongly with body weight (r = 0.7) and to a lesser degree with height, age, or BMI (r = 0.5, -0.2, 0.3, respectively). The left kidney volume was greater than the right, on average (p < 0.001). The ellipsoid formula method over-estimated renal volume by 17% on average which was significant (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Body weight was the physical characteristic which demonstrated the strongest correlation with renal volume in healthy subjects. Given this finding, a formula was derived for estimating the TRV for a given patient based on the his or her weight: TRV = 2.96 x weight (kg) + 113 ± 64.

  6. Hidden blood loss after surgery for hip fracture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foss, N B; Kehlet, H

    2006-01-01

    Our aim was to determine the total blood loss associated with surgery for fracture of the hip and to identify risk factors for increased blood loss. We prospectively studied 546 patients with hip fracture. The total blood loss was calculated on the basis of the haemoglobin difference, the number...

  7. Laparoscopic total pancreatectomy: Case report and literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xin; Li, Yongbin; Cai, Yunqiang; Liu, Xubao; Peng, Bing

    2017-01-01

    Laparoscopic total pancreatectomy is a complicated surgical procedure and rarely been reported. This study was conducted to investigate the safety and feasibility of laparoscopic total pancreatectomy. Three patients underwent laparoscopic total pancreatectomy between May 2014 and August 2015. We reviewed their general demographic data, perioperative details, and short-term outcomes. General morbidity was assessed using Clavien-Dindo classification and delayed gastric emptying (DGE) was evaluated by International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery (ISGPS) definition. The indications for laparoscopic total pancreatectomy were intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) (n = 2) and pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor (PNET) (n = 1). All patients underwent laparoscopic pylorus and spleen-preserving total pancreatectomy, the mean operative time was 490 minutes (range 450-540 minutes), the mean estimated blood loss was 266 mL (range 100-400 minutes); 2 patients suffered from postoperative complication. All the patients recovered uneventfully with conservative treatment and discharged with a mean hospital stay 18 days (range 8-24 days). The short-term (from 108 to 600 days) follow up demonstrated 3 patients had normal and consistent glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) level with acceptable quality of life. Laparoscopic total pancreatectomy is feasible and safe in selected patients and pylorus and spleen preserving technique should be considered. Further prospective randomized studies are needed to obtain a comprehensive understanding the role of laparoscopic technique in total pancreatectomy.

  8. Application of MUSLE for the prediction of phosphorus losses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noor, Hamze; Mirnia, Seyed Khalagh; Fazli, Somaye; Raisi, Mohamad Bagher; Vafakhah, Mahdi

    2010-01-01

    Soil erosion in forestlands affects not only land productivity but also the water body down stream. The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) has been applied broadly for the prediction of soil loss from upland fields. However, there are few reports concerning the prediction of nutrient (P) losses based on the USLE and its versions. The present study was conducted to evaluate the applicability of the deterministic model Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) to estimation of phosphorus losses in the Kojor forest watershed, northern Iran. The model was tested and calibrated using accurate continuous P loss data collected during seven storm events in 2008. Results of the original model simulations for storm-wise P loss did not match the observed data, while the revised version of the model could imitate the observed values well. The results of the study approved the efficient application of the revised MUSLE in estimating storm-wise P losses in the study area with a high level of agreement of beyond 93%, an acceptable estimation error of some 35%.

  9. Parameter uncertainty analysis for the annual phosphorus loss estimator (APLE) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Technical abstract: Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. While it is commonly recognized that model predictions are inherently uncertain, few studies have addressed prediction uncertainties using P loss models. In this study, we conduct an uncertainty analys...

  10. Intravenous versus topical tranexamic acid administration in primary total knee arthroplasty: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Young-Soo; Yoon, Jung-Ro; Lee, Hoon-Nyun; Park, Se-Hwan; Lee, Dae-Hee

    2017-11-01

    This meta-analysis was designed to compare the effectiveness and safety of intravenous (IV) versus topical administration of tranexamic acid (TXA) in patients undergoing primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) by evaluating the need for allogenic blood transfusion, incidence of postoperative complications, volume of postoperative blood loss, and change in haemoglobin levels. Studies were included in this meta-analysis to check whether they assessed the allogenic blood transfusion rate, postoperative complications including pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE) or deep vein thrombosis (DVT), volume of postoperative blood loss via drainage, estimated blood loss, total blood loss, and change in haemoglobin levels before and after surgery in primary TKA with TXA administered through both the IV and topical routes. Ten studies were included in this meta-analysis. The proportion of patients requiring allogenic blood transfusion (OR 1.34, 95 % CI 0.63-2.81; n.s.) and the proportion of patients who developed postoperative complications including PTE or DVT (OR 0.85, 95 % CI 0.41 to 1.77; n.s.) did not significantly differ between the two groups. There was 52.3 mL less blood loss via drainage (95 % CI -50.74 to 185.66 mL; n.s.), 52.1 mL greater estimated blood loss (95 % CI -155.27 to 51.03 mL; n.s.), and 51.4 mL greater total blood loss (95 % CI -208.16 to 105.31 mL; n.s.) in the topical TXA group as compared to the IV TXA group. The two groups were also similar in terms of the change in haemoglobin levels (0.02 g/dL, 95 % CI -0.36 to 0.39 g/dL; n.s.). In primary TKA, there are no significant differences in the transfusion requirement, postoperative complications, blood loss, and change in haemoglobin levels between the IV and topical administration of TXA. In addition, results from subgroup analysis evaluating the effect of the times of TXA administration through the IV route suggested that double IV dose of TXA is more effective than single dose in terms of the

  11. Loss modeling for pricing catastrophic bonds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-12-01

    In the research, a loss estimation framework is presented that directly relates seismic : hazard to seismic response to damage and hence to losses. A Performance-Based Earthquake : Engineering (PBEE) approach towards assessing the seismic vulnerabili...

  12. Estimating the month-specific effect of complementary food on weight loss occurrence rate in less than 2 years old children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Abadi

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Weight loss in children is one of the health problems that could occur several times for achild; therefore it is categorized as a recurrent event. In this study, we investigated the weight loss riskfactors firstly by using proportional rates model and then by applying time-dependent coefficient ratesmodel.Materials and Methods: In this study, the information of 1673 babies who were born in 2006 or 2007and were visited for monthly check ups at Tehran east health centers during their first two years of life wereincluded in the analysis. We first fitted the standard proportional rates model to this data with the purposeof determining weigh loss major risk factors. After adjusting these factors, the month-specific effect ofcomplementary foods on weight loss occurrence rate was explored using time-varying coefficient ratesmodel.Results: Our findings showed that the risk of weight loss gets heightened as with the increase in theintake of complementary foods. This negative effect is likely to be the most between 9 and 11 months ofage and then tends to weaken as the baby grows older. The results of Wald-type statistic showed that theimpact of complementary food on the occurrence of weight loss is significantly different with respect to thechild ‘age (P<0.001.Conclusion: Considering the variability of the effect of complementary food on the occurrence of weightloss, time-varying coefficient rates model can give more appropriate estimation of this effect thanproportional rates model.

  13. Milk losses due to bovine tropical theileriosis (Theileria annulata infection in Algeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ouarda Ayadi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The authors studied the impact of tropical theileriosis onset on milk yield decrease in 10 local bred cows in Skikda (Northern Algeria during 2015 summer season. The milk yield decrease estimated weekly during two months was 2.76 L/day/cow corresponding to 31.92% of the total milk yield. This decrease corresponds to 110.5 Algerian Dinars (1.02 US$/day/diseased cow. The relative variation of milk yield showed a dramatic decrease from 82.72% to 0.76% at Day 21 then became constant. Further studies are needed to improve these estimations of financial losses due to bovine tropical theileriosis in Algeria.

  14. Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell

    2017-04-01

    In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them

  15. Oracle Inequalities for Convex Loss Functions with Non-Linear Targets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caner, Mehmet; Kock, Anders Bredahl

    This paper consider penalized empirical loss minimization of convex loss functions with unknown non-linear target functions. Using the elastic net penalty we establish a finite sample oracle inequality which bounds the loss of our estimator from above with high probability. If the unknown target...... of the same order as that of the oracle. If the target is linear we give sufficient conditions for consistency of the estimated parameter vector. Next, we briefly discuss how a thresholded version of our estimator can be used to perform consistent variable selection. We give two examples of loss functions...

  16. In vitro anthelmintic activity of Barleria buxifolia on Indian adult earthworms and estimation of total flavonoid content

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Purna A. Chander

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To study the anthelmintic activity of Barleria buxifolia leaf and to estimate the total flavonoid content. Methods: The aqueous and ethanolic leaf extracts were prepared and these were analyzed for total flavonoid content by aluminium chloride colorimetric method and Pheretima posthuma was used for anthelmintic activity by using the different concentrations (10, 20, 40, 80 and 100 mg/mL. Results: All the investigational extracts showed an anthelmintic activity at concentration of 10 mg/mL. The ethanolic extract of 100 mg/mL has produced an significant effect (P<0.001 when compared to aqueous extract. The total flavonoid content was found to be 5.67 mg QE/100 g. Conclusions: From the above study, the leaf extract has shown a good anthelmintic activity.

  17. Smoking, HIV, and risk of pregnancy loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westreich, Daniel; Cates, Jordan; Cohen, Mardge; Weber, Kathleen M; Seidman, Dominika; Cropsey, Karen; Wright, Rodney; Milam, Joel; Young, Mary A; Mehta, C Christina; Gustafson, Deborah R; Golub, Elizabeth T; Fischl, Margaret A; Adimora, Adaora A

    2017-02-20

    Cigarette smoking during pregnancy increases risks of poor pregnancy outcomes including miscarriage and stillbirth (pregnancy loss), but the effect of smoking on pregnancy loss among HIV-infected women has not been explored. Here, investigated the impact of smoking on risk of pregnancy loss among HIV-positive and HIV-negative women, and estimated the potential impact of realistic smoking cessation interventions on risk of pregnancy loss among HIV-positive women. We analyzed pregnancy outcomes in HIV-positive and HIV-negative participants in the Women's Interagency HIV Study between 1994 and 2014. We estimated effects of current smoking at or immediately before pregnancy on pregnancy loss; we controlled for confounding using regression approaches, and estimated potential impact of realistic smoking cessation interventions using a semiparametric g-formula approach. Analysis examined 1033 pregnancies among 659 women. The effect of smoking on pregnancy loss differed dramatically by HIV status: adjusted for confounding, the risk difference comparing current smokers to current nonsmokers was 19.2% (95% confidence limit 10.9-27.5%) in HIV-positive women and 9.7% (95% confidence limit 0.0-19.4%) in HIV-negative women. These results were robust to sensitivity analyses. We estimated that we would need to offer a realistic smoking cessation intervention to 36 women to prevent one pregnancy loss. Smoking is a highly prevalent exposure with important consequences for pregnancy in HIV-positive pregnant women in the United States, even in the presence of potent highly active antiretroviral therapy. This evidence supports greater efforts to promote smoking cessation interventions among HIV-positive women, especially those who desire to become pregnant.

  18. Comparison of three persulfate digestion methods for total phosphorus analysis and estimation of suspended sediments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dayton, Elizabeth Ann; Whitacre, Shane; Holloman, Christopher

    2017-01-01

    As a result of impairments to fresh surface water quality due to phosphorus enrichment, substantial research effort has been put forth to quantify agricultural runoff phosphorus as related to on-field practices. While the analysis of runoff dissolved phosphorus is well prescribed and leaves little room for variability in methodology, there are several methods and variations of sample preparation reagents as well as analysis procedures for determining runoff total phosphorus. Due to the variation in methodology for determination of total phosphorus and an additional laboratory procedure required to measure suspended solids, the objectives of the current study are to i. compare the performance of three persulfate digestion methods (Acid Persulfate, USGS, and Alkaline Persulfate) for total phosphorus percent recovery across a wide range of suspended sediments (SS), and ii. evaluate the ability of using Al and/or Fe in digestion solution to predict SS as a surrogate to the traditional gravimetric method. Percent recovery of total phosphorus was determined using suspensions prepared from soils collected from 21 agricultural fields in Ohio. The Acid Persulfate method was most effective, with an average total phosphorus percent recovery of 96.6%. The second most effective method was the USGS with an average total phosphorus recovery of 76.1%. However, the Alkaline Persulfate method performed poorly with an average 24.5% total phosphorus recovery. As a result application of Alkaline Persulfate digestion to edge of field monitoring may drastically underestimated runoff total phosphorus. In addition to excellent recovery of total phosphorus, the Acid Persulfate method combined with analysis of Al and Fe by inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry provides a robust estimate of total SS. Due to the large quantity of samples that can result from water quality monitoring, an indirect measure of total SS could be very valuable when time and budget constraints limit

  19. Earthquake Loss Scenarios: Warnings about the Extent of Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyss, M.; Tolis, S.; Rosset, P.

    2016-12-01

    It is imperative that losses expected due to future earthquakes be estimated. Officials and the public need to be aware of what disaster is likely in store for them in order to reduce the fatalities and efficiently help the injured. Scenarios for earthquake parameters can be constructed to a reasonable accuracy in highly active earthquake belts, based on knowledge of seismotectonics and history. Because of the inherent uncertainties of loss estimates however, it would be desirable that more than one group calculate an estimate for the same area. By discussing these estimates, one may find a consensus of the range of the potential disasters and persuade officials and residents of the reality of the earthquake threat. To model a scenario and estimate earthquake losses requires data sets that are sufficiently accurate of the number of people present, the built environment, and if possible the transmission of seismic waves. As examples we use loss estimates for possible repeats of historic earthquakes in Greece that occurred between -464 and 700. We model future large Greek earthquakes as having M6.8 and rupture lengths of 60 km. In four locations where historic earthquakes with serious losses have occurred, we estimate that 1,000 to 1,500 people might perish, with an additional factor of four people injured. Defining the area of influence of these earthquakes as that with shaking intensities larger and equal to V, we estimate that 1.0 to 2.2 million people in about 2,000 settlements may be affected. We calibrate the QLARM tool for calculating intensities and losses in Greece, using the M6, 1999 Athens earthquake and matching the isoseismal information for six earthquakes, which occurred in Greece during the last 140 years. Comparing fatality numbers that would occur theoretically today with the numbers reported, and correcting for the increase in population, we estimate that the improvement of the building stock has reduced the mortality and injury rate in Greek

  20. Rapid exposure and loss estimates for the May 12, 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake provided by the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, P.S.; Wald, D.J.; Allen, T.I.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Porter, K.A.; Hearne, M.G.

    2008-01-01

    One half-hour after the May 12th Mw 7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system distributed an automatically generated alert stating that 1.2 million people were exposed to severe-to-extreme shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII or greater). It was immediately clear that a large-scale disaster had occurred. These alerts were widely distributed and referenced by the major media outlets and used by governments, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses. The PAGER alerts and Web pages included predictive ShakeMaps showing estimates of ground shaking, maps of population density, and a list of estimated intensities at impacted cities. Manual, revised alerts were issued in the following hours that included the dimensions of the fault rupture. Within a half-day, PAGER’s estimates of the population exposed to strong shaking levels stabilized at 5.2 million people. A coordinated research effort is underway to extend PAGER’s capability to include estimates of the number of casualties. We are pursuing loss models that will allow PAGER the flexibility to use detailed inventory and engineering results in regions where these data are available while also calculating loss estimates in regions where little is known about the type and strength of the built infrastructure. Prototype PAGER fatality estimates are currently implemented and can be manually triggered. In the hours following the Wenchuan earthquake, these models predicted fatalities in the tens of thousands.

  1. Estimated incident cost savings in shipping due to inspections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knapp, Sabine; Bijwaard, Govert; Heij, Christiaan

    2011-07-01

    The effectiveness of safety inspections of ships has been analysed from various angles, but until now, relatively little attention has been given to translate risk reduction into incident cost savings. This paper provides a monetary quantification of the cost savings that can be attributed to port state control inspections and industry vetting inspections. The dataset consists of more than half a million ship arrivals between 2002 and 2007 and contains inspections of port state authorities in the USA and Australia and of three industry vetting regimes. The effect of inspections in reducing the risk of total loss accidents is estimated by means of duration models, in terms of the gained probability of survival. The monetary benefit of port state control inspections is estimated to range, on average, from about 70 to 190 thousand dollars, with median values ranging from about 20 to 45 thousand dollars. Industry inspections have even higher benefits, especially for tankers. The savings are in general higher for older and larger vessels, and also for vessels with undefined flag and unknown classification society. As inspection costs are relatively low in comparison to potential cost savings, the results underline the importance of determining ships with relatively high risk of total loss. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Estimating adolescent risk for hearing loss based on data from a large school-based survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Ineke; Verschuure, Hans; van der Ploeg, Catharina P B; Brug, Johannes; Raat, Hein

    2010-06-01

    We estimated whether and to what extent a group of adolescents were at risk of developing permanent hearing loss as a result of voluntary exposure to high-volume music, and we assessed whether such exposure was associated with hearing-related symptoms. In 2007, 1512 adolescents (aged 12-19 years) in Dutch secondary schools completed questionnaires about their music-listening behavior and whether they experienced hearing-related symptoms after listening to high-volume music. We used their self-reported data in conjunction with published average sound levels of music players, discotheques, and pop concerts to estimate their noise exposure, and we compared that exposure to our own "loosened" (i.e., less strict) version of current European safety standards for occupational noise exposure. About half of the adolescents exceeded safety standards for occupational noise exposure. About one third of the respondents exceeded safety standards solely as a result of listening to MP3 players. Hearing symptoms that occurred after using an MP3 player or going to a discotheque were associated with exposure to high-volume music. Adolescents often exceeded current occupational safety standards for noise exposure, highlighting the need for specific safety standards for leisure-time noise exposure.

  3. Hazus® estimated annualized earthquake losses for the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Bausch, Doug; Rozelle, Jesse; Holub, John; McGowan, Sean

    2017-01-01

    Large earthquakes can cause social and economic disruption that can be unprecedented to any given community, and the full recovery from these impacts may or may not always be achievable. In the United States (U.S.), the 1994 M6.7 Northridge earthquake in California remains the third costliest disaster in U.S. history; and it was one of the most expensive disasters for the federal government. Internationally, earthquakes in the last decade alone have claimed tens of thousands of lives and caused hundreds of billions of dollars of economic impact throughout the globe (~90 billion U.S. dollars (USD) from 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan China, ~20 billion USD from 2010 M8.8 Maule earthquake in Chile, ~220 billion USD from 2011 M9.0 Tohoku Japan earthquake, ~25 billion USD from 2011 M6.3 Christchurch New Zealand, and ~22 billion USD from 2016 M7.0 Kumamoto Japan). Recent earthquakes show a pattern of steadily increasing damages and losses that are primarily due to three key factors: (1) significant growth in earthquake-prone urban areas, (2) vulnerability of the older building stock, including poorly engineered non-ductile concrete buildings, and (3) an increased interdependency in terms of supply and demand for the businesses that operate among different parts of the world. In the United States, earthquake risk continues to grow with increased exposure of population and development even though the earthquake hazard has remained relatively stable except for the regions of induced seismic activity. Understanding the seismic hazard requires studying earthquake characteristics and locales in which they occur, while understanding the risk requires an assessment of the potential damage from earthquake shaking to the built environment and to the welfare of people—especially in high-risk areas. Estimating the varying degree of earthquake risk throughout the United States is critical for informed decision-making on mitigation policies, priorities, strategies, and funding levels in the

  4. Social costs of loss in productivity-related absenteeism in Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnieszka Genowska

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The aim of this study was to estimate indirect costs associated with losses in productivity due to sickness absence among registered workers in Poland. Material and Methods: Data on sick leave durations in 2013 was obtained from the Social Insurance Institution (SII (Zakład Ubezpieczeń Społecznych – ZUS. Based on the number of assumptions, this data was used for calculating absence durations. The costs of lost productivity were estimated on the basis of the measure of gross value added. Results: Estimated losses in productivity due to absenteeism in 2013 together accounted for 4.33% of gross domestic product (GDP (17.09 billion euro. In the female population, the total value of losses amounted to 9.66 billion euro, but excluding the costs of pregnancy, childbirth, and puerperium (2.96 billion euro, it was 6.7 billion euro. In the male population, the loss amounted to 7.43 billion euro. The highest overall costs of sickness absence based on age were found in the age group of 30–39 years (5.14 billion euro, including pregnancy, childbirth, and puerperium – 1.474 billion euro; respiratory diseases – 0.632 billion euro, injuries and poisonings – 0.62 billion euro. In the group of people aged > 40 years, the highest cost was generated by bone-muscular diseases (1.553 billion euro and injuries and poisoning (1.251 billion euro. Higher losses in the productivity of women in addition to pregnancy, childbirth, and puerperium were due to mental and behavioral disorders (0.71 billion euro, diseases of the genitourinary system (0.38 billion euro, and neoplasms (0.35 billion euro. At the same time, in men, compared to women, we observed higher losses due to injuries and poisoning (1.65 billion euro, and diseases of musculoskeletal (1.26 billion euro, nervous (0.79 billion euro, circulatory (0.65 billion euro, and digestive (0.41 billion euro systems. Conclusions: Improvement and further development of effective strategies for

  5. Combining item and bulk material loss-detection uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eggers, R.F.

    1982-01-01

    Loss detection requirements, such as five formula kilograms with 99% probability of detection, which apply to the sum of losses from material in both item and bulk form, constitute a special problem for the nuclear material statistician. Requirements of this type are included in the Material Control and Accounting Reform Amendments described in the Advance Notice of Proposed Rule Making (Federal Register, 46(175):45144-46151). Attribute test sampling of items is the method used to detect gross defects in the inventory of items in a given control unit. Attribute sampling plans are designed to detect a loss of a specificed goal quantity of material with a given probability. In contrast to the methods and statistical models used for item loss detection, bulk material loss detection requires all the material entering and leaving a control unit to be measured and the calculation of a loss estimator that will be tested against an appropriate alarm threshold. The alarm threshold is determined from an estimate of the error inherent in the components of the loss estimator. In this paper a simple grahical method of evaluating the combined capabilities of bulk material loss detection methods and item attribute testing procedures will be described. Quantitative results will be given for several cases, indicating how a decrease in the precision of the item loss detection method tends to force an increase in the precision of the bulk loss detection procedure in order to meet the overall detection requirement. 4 figures

  6. Calculating transport AC losses in stacks of high temperature superconductor coated conductors with magnetic substrates using FEM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ainslie, Mark D.; Flack, Tim J.; Campbell, Archie M.

    2012-01-01

    Properties of stacks of HTS coated conductors with and without a magnetic substrate. Non-magnetic substrate model is consistent with existing methods. Presence of a magnetic substrate increases the total AC loss of the stack. Differences and similarities between certain tapes within stacks are explained. Ferromagnetic loss of substrate negligible in most cases except small currents/fields. In this paper, the authors investigate the electromagnetic properties of stacks of high temperature superconductor (HTS) coated conductors with a particular focus on calculating the total transport AC loss. The cross-section of superconducting cables and coils is often modeled as a two-dimensional stack of coated conductors, and these stacks can be used to estimate the AC loss of a practical device. This paper uses a symmetric two dimensional (2D) finite element model based on the H formulation, and a detailed investigation into the effects of a magnetic substrate on the transport AC loss of a stack is presented. The number of coated conductors in each stack is varied from 1 to 150, and three types of substrate are compared: non-magnetic weakly magnetic and strongly magnetic. The non-magnetic substrate model is comparable with results from existing models for the limiting cases of a single tape (Norris) and an infinite stack (Clem). The presence of a magnetic substrate increases the total AC loss of the stack, due to an increased localized magnetic flux density, and the stronger the magnetic material, the further the flux penetrates into the stack overall. The AC loss is calculated for certain tapes within the stack, and the differences and similarities between the losses throughout the stack are explained using the magnetic flux penetration and current density distributions in those tapes. The ferromagnetic loss of the substrate itself is found to be negligible in most cases, except for small magnitudes of current. Applying these findings to practical applications, where AC

  7. A new estimation of the total flavonoids in silkworm cocoon sericin layer through aglycone determination by hydrolysis-assisted extraction and HPLC-DAD analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin-Ge Zhao

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Silk sericin and a few non-protein components isolated from the cocoon layer including two silk proteins in silkworm Bombyx mori has many bioactivities. The dietary sericin possess antinatural oxidation, anticancer, antihyperlipidemic, and antidiabetic activities. The non-protein components surrounding the sericin layer involve in wax, pigments mainly meaning flavonoids, sugars, and other impurities. However, very few investigations have reported the estimation of the total flavonoids derived from the cocoon layer. The flavonoids are commonly present in their glycosylated forms and mostly exist as quercetin glycosides in the sericin layers of silkworm cocoons. Objective: The aim of this study was to find a more accurate method to estimate the level of the total flavonoids in silkworm cocoons. Design: An efficient procedure of hydrolysis-assisted extraction (HAE was first established to estimate the level of the total flavonoids through the determination of their aglycones, quercetin, and kaempferol. Then, a comparison was made between traditional colorimetric method and our method. In addition, the antioxidant activities of hydrolysis-assisted extract sample were determined. Results: The average contents of quercetin and kaempferol were 1.98 and 0.42 mg/g in Daizo cocoon. Their recoveries were 99.56 and 99.17%. The total sum of quercetin and kaempferol was detected to be 2.40±0.07 mg/g by HAE-HPLC, while the total flavonoids (2.59±0.48 mg/g estimated by the traditional colorimetric method were only equivalent to 1.28±0.04 mg/g of quercetin. The HAE sample also exhibits that IC50 values of scavenging ability of diphenyl picryl hydrazinyl (DPPH radical and hydroxyl radical (HO· are 243.63 µg/mL and 4.89 mg/mL, respectively. Conclusions: These results show that the HAE-HPLC method is specificity of cocoon and far superior to the colorimetric method. Therefore, this study has profound significance for the comprehensive utilization

  8. The longitudinal trajectory of post-surgical % total weight loss among middle-aged women who had undergone bariatric surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong-Chul Seo

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Middle-aged women are at a higher risk of being obese. We examined the trajectory of post-surgical % total weight loss (%TWL among middle-aged female bariatric patients. We fitted sequential generalized estimating equations models to analyze a sample of women who received bariatric surgery in 1995–2012, aged 40–65 years at the time of surgery (N = 158,292 whose pre-operative body mass index (BMI was ≥30 kg/m2 in the Bariatric Outcomes Longitudinal Database. The %TWL computed by 100% × (pre-surgery BMI − post-surgery BMI / pre-surgery BMI showed different trajectories depending on type of surgery. For gastric banding, %TWL increased rapidly right after bariatric surgery and started to decrease around 1 year after surgery. For Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB and sleeve gastrectomy, %TWL overall did not show remarkable changes from around 1 year after surgery. The highest increase in %TWL was observed in patients whose pre-operative BMI was 40 or higher and those who had undergone RYGB (ps < 0.001. Whereas the trajectories of %TWL among patients with sleeve gastrectomy and gastric banding did not differ much between different pre-operative BMI groups, the trajectories for RYGB were notably different between different pre-operative BMI groups (ps < 0.001. Middle-aged female bariatric patients are likely to achieve the highest %TWL if they receive RYGB and if their pre-operative BMI is 40 or higher. Further research is warranted to corroborate the present study's finding on the long-term effect of different types of bariatric surgery on %TWL among middle-aged women.

  9. Heat loss may explain bill size differences between birds occupying different habitats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russell Greenberg

    Full Text Available Research on variation in bill morphology has focused on the role of diet. Bills have other functions, however, including a role in heat and water balance. The role of the bill in heat loss may be particularly important in birds where water is limiting. Song sparrows localized in coastal dunes and salt marsh edge (Melospiza melodia atlantica are similar in size to, but have bills with a 17% greater surface area than, those that live in mesic habitats (M. m. melodia, a pattern shared with other coastal sparrows. We tested the hypotheses that sparrows can use their bills to dissipate "dry" heat, and that heat loss from the bill is higher in M. m. atlantica than M. m. melodia, which would indicate a role of heat loss and water conservation in selection for bill size.Bill, tarsus, and body surface temperatures were measured using thermal imaging of sparrows exposed to temperatures from 15-37°C and combined with surface area and physical modeling to estimate the contribution of each body part to total heat loss. Song sparrow bills averaged 5-10°C hotter than ambient. The bill of M. m atlantica dissipated up to 33% more heat and 38% greater proportion of total heat than that of M. m. melodia. This could potentially reduce water loss requirements by approximately 7.7%.This >30% higher heat loss in the bill of M. m. atlantica is independent of evaporative water loss and thus could play an important role in the water balance of sparrows occupying the hot and exposed dune/salt marsh environments during the summer. Heat loss capacity and water conservation could play an important role in the selection for bill size differences between bird populations and should be considered along with trophic adaptations when studying variation in bill size.

  10. The Effect of Adherence to Dietary Tracking on Weight Loss: Using HLM to Model Weight Loss over Time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingels, John Spencer; Misra, Ranjita; Stewart, Jonathan; Lucke-Wold, Brandon; Shawley-Brzoska, Samantha

    2017-01-01

    The role of dietary tracking on weight loss remains unexplored despite being part of multiple diabetes and weight management programs. Hence, participants of the Diabetes Prevention and Management (DPM) program (12 months, 22 sessions) tracked their food intake for the duration of the study. A scatterplot of days tracked versus total weight loss revealed a nonlinear relationship. Hence, the number of possible tracking days was divided to create the 3 groups of participants: rare trackers (66% total days tracked). After controlling for initial body mass index, hemoglobin A 1c , and gender, only consistent trackers had significant weight loss (-9.99 pounds), following a linear relationship with consistent loss throughout the year. In addition, the weight loss trend for the rare and inconsistent trackers followed a nonlinear path, with the holidays slowing weight loss and the onset of summer increasing weight loss. These results show the importance of frequent dietary tracking for consistent long-term weight loss success.

  11. Food loss and waste management in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salihoglu, Guray; Salihoglu, Nezih Kamil; Ucaroglu, Selnur; Banar, Mufide

    2018-01-01

    Food waste can be an environmental and economic problem if not managed properly but it can meet various demands of a country if it is considered as a resource. The purpose of this report is to review the existing state of the field in Turkey and identify the potential of food waste as a resource. Food loss and waste (FLW) was examined throughout the food supply chain (FSC) and quantified using the FAO model. Edible FLW was estimated to be approximately 26milliontons/year. The amount of biodegradable waste was estimated based on waste statistics and research conducted on household food waste in Turkey. The total amount of biodegradable waste was found to be approximately 20milliontons/year, where more than 8.6milliontons/year of this waste is FLW from distribution and consumption in the FSC. Options for the end-of-life management of biodegradable wastes are also discussed in this review article. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deborah P. Shutt

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015/2016 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification. The model indicated that a country-level analysis was not appropriate for Colombia. We then estimated the basic reproduction number to range between 4 and 6 for El Salvador and Suriname with a median of 4.3 and 5.3, respectively. We estimated the reporting rate to be around 16% in El Salvador and 18% in Suriname with estimated total outbreak sizes of 73,395 and 21,647 people, respectively. The uncertainty in parameter estimates highlights a need for research and data collection that will better constrain parameter ranges.

  13. Loss of ability to work and ability to live independently in Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jasinska-Myga, Barbara; Heckman, Michael G; Wider, Christian; Putzke, John D; Wszolek, Zbigniew K; Uitti, Ryan J

    2012-02-01

    Ability to work and live independently is of particular concern for patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). We studied a series of PD patients able to work or live independently at baseline, and evaluated potential risk factors for two separate outcomes: loss of ability to work and loss of ability to live independently. The series comprised 495 PD patients followed prospectively. Ability to work and ability to live independently were based on clinical interview and examination. Cox regression models adjusted for age and disease duration were used to evaluate associations of baseline characteristics with loss of ability to work and loss of ability to live independently. Higher UPDRS dyskinesia score, UPDRS instability score, UPDRS total score, Hoehn and Yahr stage, and presence of intellectual impairment at baseline were all associated with increased risk of future loss of ability to work and loss of ability to live independently (P ≤ 0.0033). Five years after initial visit, for patients ≤70 years of age with a disease duration ≤4 years at initial visit, 88% were still able to work and 90% to live independently. These estimates worsened as age and disease duration at initial visit increased; for patients >70 years of age with a disease duration >4 years, estimates at 5 years were 43% able to work and 57% able to live independently. The information provided in this study can offer useful information for PD patients in preparing for future ability to perform activities of daily living. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Total body height estimation using sacrum height in Anatolian Caucasians: multidetector computed tomography-based virtual anthropometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karakas, Hakki Muammer; Celbis, Osman; Harma, Ahmet; Alicioglu, Banu

    2011-01-01

    Estimation of total body height is a major step when a subject has to be identified from his/her skeletal structures. In the presence of decomposed skeletons and missing bones, estimation is usually based on regression equation for intact long bones. If these bones are fragmented or missing, alternative structures must be used. In this study, the value of sacrum height (SH) in total body height (TBH) estimation was investigated in a contemporary population of adult Anatolian Caucasians. Sixty-six men (41.6 ± 14.9 years) and 43 women (41.1 ± 14.2 years) were scanned with 64-row multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) to obtain high-resolution anthropometric data. SH of midsagittal sections was electronically measured. The technique and methodology were validated on a standard skeletal model. Sacrum height was 111.2 ± 12.6 mm (77-138 mm) in men and 104.7 ± 8.2 (89-125 mm) in women. The difference between the two sexes regarding SH was significant (p < 0.0001). SH did not significantly correlate with age in men, whereas the correlation was significant in women (p < 0.03). The correlation between SH and the stature was significant in men (r = 0.427, p < 0.0001) and was insignificant in women. For men the regression equation was [Stature = (0.306 x SH)+137.9] (r = 0.54, SEE = 56.9, p < 0.0001). Sacrum height is not susceptible to sex, or to age in men. In the presence of incomplete male skeletons, SH helps to determine the stature. This study is also one of the initial applications of MDCT in virtual anthropometric research. (orig.)

  15. Total body height estimation using sacrum height in Anatolian Caucasians: multidetector computed tomography-based virtual anthropometry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karakas, Hakki Muammer [Inonu University Medical Faculty, Turgut Ozal Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Malatya (Turkey); Celbis, Osman [Inonu University Medical Faculty Turgut Ozal Medical Center, Department of Forensic Medicine, Malatya (Turkey); Harma, Ahmet [Inonu University Medical Faculty Turgut Ozal Medical Center, Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Malatya (Turkey); Alicioglu, Banu [Trakya University Medical Faculty, Department of Radiology, Edirne (Turkey); Trakya University Health Sciences Institute, Department of Anatomy, Edirne (Turkey)

    2011-05-15

    Estimation of total body height is a major step when a subject has to be identified from his/her skeletal structures. In the presence of decomposed skeletons and missing bones, estimation is usually based on regression equation for intact long bones. If these bones are fragmented or missing, alternative structures must be used. In this study, the value of sacrum height (SH) in total body height (TBH) estimation was investigated in a contemporary population of adult Anatolian Caucasians. Sixty-six men (41.6 {+-} 14.9 years) and 43 women (41.1 {+-} 14.2 years) were scanned with 64-row multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) to obtain high-resolution anthropometric data. SH of midsagittal sections was electronically measured. The technique and methodology were validated on a standard skeletal model. Sacrum height was 111.2 {+-} 12.6 mm (77-138 mm) in men and 104.7 {+-} 8.2 (89-125 mm) in women. The difference between the two sexes regarding SH was significant (p < 0.0001). SH did not significantly correlate with age in men, whereas the correlation was significant in women (p < 0.03). The correlation between SH and the stature was significant in men (r = 0.427, p < 0.0001) and was insignificant in women. For men the regression equation was [Stature = (0.306 x SH)+137.9] (r = 0.54, SEE = 56.9, p < 0.0001). Sacrum height is not susceptible to sex, or to age in men. In the presence of incomplete male skeletons, SH helps to determine the stature. This study is also one of the initial applications of MDCT in virtual anthropometric research. (orig.)

  16. Tranexamic acid reduces blood loss and need of blood transfusion in total knee arthroplasty: A prospective, randomized, double-blind study in Indian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abhishek Shinde

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: For quite a few years, tranexamic acid (TEA has been used during total knee arthroplasty (TKA to reduce blood loss. However, no consensus exits regarding its timing and doses. Materials and Methods: We conducted a prospective, randomized double-blinded study of 56 patients in the Indian population undergoing TKA from 2011 to 2012. A dose of 10 mg/kg body weight of TEA (three doses was given in one group and normal saline was administered in the other. Results: The mean blood loss in the TEA unilateral group was 295 mL ± 218 mL and in the placebo group was 482 mL ± 186 mL (P < 0.005. In the bilateral TEA group, the mean blood loss was 596 mL ± 235 mL and in the placebo group was 1349 mL ± 41 mL (P < 0.005. Conclusion: The number of patients requiring blood transfusion reduced substantially. There was no increase in the risk of deep vein thrombosis (DVT and pulmonary embolism. TEA reduces intraoperative and postoperative blood loss and thus reduces the need of allogenic blood transfusion.

  17. Outcome of revision total knee arthroplasty with the use of trabecular metal cone for reconstruction of severe bone loss at the proximal tibia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Claus L; Olsen, Nikolaj Winther; Schrøder, Henrik M

    2014-01-01

    technology (TMT) cones for the reconstruction of tibial bone loss at the time of rTKA. METHODS: Thirty-six patients had rTKA with the use of a TMT Cone. Bone loss was classified according to the AORI classification and 25% of the patients suffered from T3 AORI defects and 75% of the patients from T2 AORI...... defects. Implants used were from the NexGen series. At follow-up, radiographs were evaluated according to the Knee Society Roentgenographic Scoring System. Knee and function score was calculated using the Knee Society Clinical Rating System. Average follow-up time was 47 months (range 3-84 months......BACKGROUND: The relative effectiveness of different methods for reconstructing large bone loss at the proximal tibia in revision total knee arthroplasty (rTKA) has not been established. The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical and radiological outcome after the use of trabecular metal...

  18. Work loss associated with increased menstrual loss in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Isabelle; Jacobs, Philip; Cumming, David

    2002-10-01

    To estimate the effect of increased menstrual flow on the loss of work. Heavy or otherwise abnormal menstrual bleeding is a common problem among women in the reproductive age range. Until now, there has been no evidence of its effect on absences from work. We used data from the National Health Interview Survey 1999, a personal interview household survey using a nationwide representative sample of the civilian noninstitutionalized population of the United States. Participants were 3133 women aged between 18 and 64 years who reported having a natural menstrual period in the last 12 months and in the last 3 months, never having taken medication containing estrogen (except past use of oral contraceptives), and never having been told that they had reproductive cancer. Analysis was performed using data from 2805 women, 373 having self-described heavy flow and 2432 having normal flow. The main outcome measure was work loss associated with the degree of menstrual flow. Using binary logistic regression, age, marital status, education, family size, perception of health, and flow of menstrual periods are associated with work losses (P women who have a heavier flow are 72% as likely to be working as are women who have a lighter or normal flow. Menstrual bleeding has significant economic implications for women in the workplace: work loss from increased blood flow is estimated to be $1692 annually per woman.

  19. A Simple Method for Estimating the Economic Cost of Productivity Loss Due to Blindness and Moderate to Severe Visual Impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckert, Kristen A; Carter, Marissa J; Lansingh, Van C; Wilson, David A; Furtado, João M; Frick, Kevin D; Resnikoff, Serge

    2015-01-01

    To estimate the annual loss of productivity from blindness and moderate to severe visual impairment (MSVI) using simple models (analogous to how a rapid assessment model relates to a comprehensive model) based on minimum wage (MW) and gross national income (GNI) per capita (US$, 2011). Cost of blindness (COB) was calculated for the age group ≥50 years in nine sample countries by assuming the loss of current MW and loss of GNI per capita. It was assumed that all individuals work until 65 years old and that half of visual impairment prevalent in the ≥50 years age group is prevalent in the 50-64 years age group. For cost of MSVI (COMSVI), individual wage and GNI loss of 30% was assumed. Results were compared with the values of the uncorrected refractive error (URE) model of productivity loss. COB (MW method) ranged from $0.1 billion in Honduras to $2.5 billion in the United States, and COMSVI ranged from $0.1 billion in Honduras to $5.3 billion in the US. COB (GNI method) ranged from $0.1 million in Honduras to $7.8 billion in the US, and COMSVI ranged from $0.1 billion in Honduras to $16.5 billion in the US. Most GNI method values were near equivalent to those of the URE model. Although most people with blindness and MSVI live in developing countries, the highest productivity losses are in high income countries. The global economy could improve if eye care were made more accessible and more affordable to all.

  20. Total arsenic in selected food samples from Argentina: Estimation of their contribution to inorganic arsenic dietary intake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigrist, Mirna; Hilbe, Nandi; Brusa, Lucila; Campagnoli, Darío; Beldoménico, Horacio

    2016-11-01

    An optimized flow injection hydride generation atomic absorption spectroscopy (FI-HGAAS) method was used to determine total arsenic in selected food samples (beef, chicken, fish, milk, cheese, egg, rice, rice-based products, wheat flour, corn flour, oats, breakfast cereals, legumes and potatoes) and to estimate their contributions to inorganic arsenic dietary intake. The limit of detection (LOD) and limit of quantification (LOQ) values obtained were 6μgkg(-)(1) and 18μgkg(-)(1), respectively. The mean recovery range obtained for all food at a fortification level of 200μgkg(-)(1) was 85-110%. Accuracy was evaluated using dogfish liver certified reference material (DOLT-3 NRC) for trace metals. The highest total arsenic concentrations (in μgkg(-)(1)) were found in fish (152-439), rice (87-316) and rice-based products (52-201). The contribution to inorganic arsenic (i-As) intake was calculated from the mean i-As content of each food (calculated by applying conversion factors to total arsenic data) and the mean consumption per day. The primary contributors to inorganic arsenic intake were wheat flour, including its proportion in wheat flour-based products (breads, pasta and cookies), followed by rice; both foods account for close to 53% and 17% of the intake, respectively. The i-As dietary intake, estimated as 10.7μgday(-)(1), was significantly lower than that from drinking water in vast regions of Argentina. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Cancer risk estimates from radiation therapy for heterotopic ossification prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mazonakis, Michalis; Berris, Theoharris; Damilakis, John [Department of Medical Physics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Crete, P.O. Box 2208, 71003 Iraklion, Crete (Greece); Lyraraki, Efrossyni [Department of Radiotherapy and Oncology, University Hospital of Iraklion, 71110 Iraklion, Crete (Greece)

    2013-10-15

    Purpose: Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent complication following total hip arthroplasty. This study was conducted to calculate the radiation dose to organs-at-risk and estimate the probability of cancer induction from radiotherapy for HO prophylaxis.Methods: Hip irradiation for HO with a 6 MV photon beam was simulated with the aid of a Monte Carlo model. A realistic humanoid phantom representing an average adult patient was implemented in Monte Carlo environment for dosimetric calculations. The average out-of-field radiation dose to stomach, liver, lung, prostate, bladder, thyroid, breast, uterus, and ovary was calculated. The organ-equivalent-dose to colon, that was partly included within the treatment field, was also determined. Organ dose calculations were carried out using three different field sizes. The dependence of organ doses upon the block insertion into primary beam for shielding colon and prosthesis was investigated. The lifetime attributable risk for cancer development was estimated using organ, age, and gender-specific risk coefficients.Results: For a typical target dose of 7 Gy, organ doses varied from 1.0 to 741.1 mGy by the field dimensions and organ location relative to the field edge. Blocked field irradiations resulted in a dose range of 1.4–146.3 mGy. The most probable detriment from open field treatment of male patients was colon cancer with a high risk of 564.3 × 10{sup −5} to 837.4 × 10{sup −5} depending upon the organ dose magnitude and the patient's age. The corresponding colon cancer risk for female patients was (372.2–541.0) × 10{sup −5}. The probability of bladder cancer development was more than 113.7 × 10{sup −5} and 110.3 × 10{sup −5} for males and females, respectively. The cancer risk range to other individual organs was reduced to (0.003–68.5) × 10{sup −5}.Conclusions: The risk for cancer induction from radiation therapy for HO prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty varies considerably by

  2. Cancer risk estimates from radiation therapy for heterotopic ossification prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazonakis, Michalis; Berris, Theoharris; Damilakis, John; Lyraraki, Efrossyni

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent complication following total hip arthroplasty. This study was conducted to calculate the radiation dose to organs-at-risk and estimate the probability of cancer induction from radiotherapy for HO prophylaxis.Methods: Hip irradiation for HO with a 6 MV photon beam was simulated with the aid of a Monte Carlo model. A realistic humanoid phantom representing an average adult patient was implemented in Monte Carlo environment for dosimetric calculations. The average out-of-field radiation dose to stomach, liver, lung, prostate, bladder, thyroid, breast, uterus, and ovary was calculated. The organ-equivalent-dose to colon, that was partly included within the treatment field, was also determined. Organ dose calculations were carried out using three different field sizes. The dependence of organ doses upon the block insertion into primary beam for shielding colon and prosthesis was investigated. The lifetime attributable risk for cancer development was estimated using organ, age, and gender-specific risk coefficients.Results: For a typical target dose of 7 Gy, organ doses varied from 1.0 to 741.1 mGy by the field dimensions and organ location relative to the field edge. Blocked field irradiations resulted in a dose range of 1.4–146.3 mGy. The most probable detriment from open field treatment of male patients was colon cancer with a high risk of 564.3 × 10 −5 to 837.4 × 10 −5 depending upon the organ dose magnitude and the patient's age. The corresponding colon cancer risk for female patients was (372.2–541.0) × 10 −5 . The probability of bladder cancer development was more than 113.7 × 10 −5 and 110.3 × 10 −5 for males and females, respectively. The cancer risk range to other individual organs was reduced to (0.003–68.5) × 10 −5 .Conclusions: The risk for cancer induction from radiation therapy for HO prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty varies considerably by the treatment parameters, organ

  3. An Estimation of the Climatic Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Losses during the 1980s. Appendix K

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKay, Robert M.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Shia, Run-Lie; Yang, Yajaing; Zhou, Shuntai; Molnar, Gyula

    1997-01-01

    In order to study the potential climatic effects of the ozone hole more directly and to assess the validity of previous lower resolution model results, the latest high spatial resolution version of the Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., seasonal radiative dynamical climate model is used to simulate the climatic effects of ozone changes relative to the other greenhouse gases. The steady-state climatic effect of a sustained decrease in lower stratospheric ozone, similar in magnitude to the observed 1979-90 decrease, is estimated by comparing three steady-state climate simulations: 1) 1979 greenhouse gas concentrations and 1979 ozone, II) 1990 greenhouse gas concentrations with 1979 ozone, and III) 1990 greenhouse gas concentrations with 1990 ozone. The simulated increase in surface air temperature resulting from nonozone greenhouse gases is 0.272 K. When changes in lower stratospheric ozone are included, the greenhouse warming is 0.165 K, which is approximately 39% lower than when ozone is fixed at the 1979 concentrations. Ozone perturbations at high latitudes result in a cooling of the surface-troposphere system that is greater (by a factor of 2.8) than that estimated from the change in radiative forcing resulting from ozone depiction and the model's 2 x CO, climate sensitivity. The results suggest that changes in meridional heat transport from low to high latitudes combined with the decrease in the infrared opacity of the lower stratosphere are very important in determining the steady-state response to high latitude ozone losses. The 39% compensation in greenhouse warming resulting from lower stratospheric ozone losses is also larger than the 28% compensation simulated previously by the lower resolution model. The higher resolution model is able to resolve the high latitude features of the assumed ozone perturbation, which are important in determining the overall climate sensitivity to these perturbations.

  4. [Methodologies for estimating the indirect costs of traffic accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carozzi, Soledad; Elorza, María Eugenia; Moscoso, Nebel Silvana; Ripari, Nadia Vanina

    2017-01-01

    Traffic accidents generate multiple costs to society, including those associated with the loss of productivity. However, there is no consensus about the most appropriate methodology for estimating those costs. The aim of this study was to review methods for estimating indirect costs applied in crash cost studies. A thematic review of the literature was carried out between 1995 and 2012 in PubMed with the terms cost of illness, indirect cost, road traffic injuries, productivity loss. For the assessment of costs we used the the human capital method, on the basis of the wage-income lost during the time of treatment and recovery of patients and caregivers. In the case of premature death or total disability, the discount rate was applied to obtain the present value of lost future earnings. The computed years arose by subtracting to life expectancy at birth the average age of those affected who are not incorporated into the economically active life. The interest in minimizing the problem is reflected in the evolution of the implemented methodologies. We expect that this review is useful to estimate efficiently the real indirect costs of traffic accidents.

  5. Antarctic ozone loss in 1989-2010: evidence for ozone recovery?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuttippurath, J.; Lefèvre, F.; Pommereau, J.-P.; Roscoe, H. K.; Goutail, F.; Pazmiño, A.; Shanklin, J. D.

    2012-04-01

    We present a detailed estimation of chemical ozone loss in the Antarctic polar vortex from 1989 to 2010. The analyses include ozone loss estimates for 12 Antarctic ground-based (GB) stations. All GB observations show minimum ozone in the late September-early October period. Among the stations, the lowest minimum ozone values are observed at South Pole and the highest at Dumont d'Urville. The ozone loss starts by mid-June at the vortex edge and then progresses towards the vortex core with time. The loss intensifies in August-September, peaks by the end of September-early October, and recovers thereafter. The average ozone loss in the Antarctic is revealed to be about 33-50% in 1989-1992 in agreement with the increase in halogens during this period, and then stayed at around 48% due to saturation of the loss. The ozone loss in the warmer winters (e.g. 2002, and 2004) is lower (37-46%) and in the colder winters (e.g. 2003, and 2006) is higher (52-55%). Because of small inter-annual variability, the correlation between ozone loss and the volume of polar stratospheric clouds yields ~0.51. The GB ozone and ozone loss values are in good agreement with those found from the space-based observations of the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer/Ozone Monitoring Instrument (TOMS/OMI), the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME), the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), and the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), where the differences are within ±5% and are mostly within the error bars of the measurements. The piece-wise linear trends computed from the September-November vortex average GB and TOMS/OMI ozone show about -4 to -5.6 DU (Dobson Unit) yr-1 in 1989-1996 and about +1 DU yr-1 in 1997-2010. The trend during the former period is significant at 95% confidence intervals, but the trend in 1997-2010 is significant only at 85% confidence intervals. Our analyses suggest a period of about 9-10 yr to get the first detectable ozone

  6. Intraspecies variation in BMR does not affect estimates of early hominin total daily energy expenditure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froehle, Andrew W; Schoeninger, Margaret J

    2006-12-01

    We conducted a meta-analysis of 45 studies reporting basal metabolic rate (BMR) data for Homo sapiens and Pan troglodytes to determine the effects of sex, age, and latitude (a proxy for climate, in humans only). BMR was normalized for body size using fat-free mass in humans and body mass in chimpanzees. We found no effect of sex in either species and no age effect in chimpanzees. In humans, juveniles differed significantly from adults (ANCOVA: P BMR and body size, and used them to predict total daily energy expenditure (TEE) in four early hominin species. Our predictions concur with previous TEE estimates (i.e. Leonard and Robertson: Am J Phys Anthropol 102 (1997) 265-281), and support the conclusion that TEE increased greatly with H. erectus. Our results show that intraspecific variation in BMR does not affect TEE estimates for interspecific comparisons. Comparisons of more closely related groups such as humans and Neandertals, however, may benefit from consideration of this variation. 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  7. ELER software - a new tool for urban earthquake loss assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancilar, U.; Tuzun, C.; Yenidogan, C.; Erdik, M.

    2010-12-01

    Rapid loss estimation after potentially damaging earthquakes is critical for effective emergency response and public information. A methodology and software package, ELER-Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine, for rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses throughout the Euro-Mediterranean region was developed under the Joint Research Activity-3 (JRA3) of the EC FP6 Project entitled "Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology-NERIES". Recently, a new version (v2.0) of ELER software has been released. The multi-level methodology developed is capable of incorporating regional variability and uncertainty originating from ground motion predictions, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships. Although primarily intended for quasi real-time estimation of earthquake shaking and losses, the routine is also equally capable of incorporating scenario-based earthquake loss assessments. This paper introduces the urban earthquake loss assessment module (Level 2) of the ELER software which makes use of the most detailed inventory databases of physical and social elements at risk in combination with the analytical vulnerability relationships and building damage-related casualty vulnerability models for the estimation of building damage and casualty distributions, respectively. Spectral capacity-based loss assessment methodology and its vital components are presented. The analysis methods of the Level 2 module, i.e. Capacity Spectrum Method (ATC-40, 1996), Modified Acceleration-Displacement Response Spectrum Method (FEMA 440, 2005), Reduction Factor Method (Fajfar, 2000) and Coefficient Method (ASCE 41-06, 2006), are applied to the selected building types for validation and verification purposes. The damage estimates are compared to the results obtained from the other studies available in the literature, i.e. SELENA v4.0 (Molina et al., 2008) and

  8. Comparison of Two Methods of Bolus and Infusion of Tranexamic Acid in Reduction of Blood Loss in Total Knee Arthroplasty

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammadreza Moshari; Bahman Malek; Mohammadreza Minator-Sajjadi; Maryam Vosoghian; Mastaneh Dahi; Mahshid Ghasemi; Razieh Shekari

    2018-01-01

    AbstractBackground: So far, many studies have been performed to determine the optimal dose and regimen of tranexamic acid to reduce preoperative and postoperative blood loss in primary total knee arthroplasty. In the present study, two different methods of administration (bolus and infusion), were compared.Materials and Methods: Forty patients were randomized in the two groups (A and B) of 20 patients each. All patients received 500 mg tranexamic acid before inflation of tourniquet. Group A (...

  9. Power loss separation in Fe-based composite materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kollar, Peter, E-mail: peter.kollar@upjs.sk [Institute of Physics, Faculty of Science, Pavol Jozef Safarik University, Park Angelinum 9, 04154 Kosice (Slovakia); Bircakova, Zuzana; Fuezer, Jan [Institute of Physics, Faculty of Science, Pavol Jozef Safarik University, Park Angelinum 9, 04154 Kosice (Slovakia); Bures, Radovan; Faberova, Maria [Institute of Materials Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Watsonova 47, 04001 Kosice (Slovakia)

    2013-02-15

    The frequency dependence of total losses measured in the frequency range from dc to 1 kHz of two Fe-based soft magnetic composites (prepared by compaction of an ASC 100.29 iron powder mixture with 10 vol% of commercial thermoset resin and of a Somaloy{sup Registered-Sign} 700 powder) was analyzed. We found out that hysteresis losses (per volume unit) are higher for the composite with lower volume concentration of iron particles (i.e. mixture of iron with resin) and consequently weaker magnetic interaction between particles. On the other hand, higher specific resistivity of the sample with lower magnetic fraction causes lower contribution of eddy current losses to the total losses. A linear dependence of the total energy losses on frequency was observed and from them the contribution of excess losses was obtained. The detailed study of the excess losses resulted in an explanation of the frequency dependence of these losses in composite materials. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It was observed that excess losses in SMC depend on the frequency linearly. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Two components of eddy current losses (inter- and intra-particle) were analyzed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Larger amount of insulator causes the eddy current inside ferromagnetic particles.

  10. Estimation of Annual Average Soil Loss, Based on Rusle Model in Kallar Watershed, Bhavani Basin, Tamil Nadu, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahaman, S. Abdul; Aruchamy, S.; Jegankumar, R.; Ajeez, S. Abdul

    2015-10-01

    Soil erosion is a widespread environmental challenge faced in Kallar watershed nowadays. Erosion is defined as the movement of soil by water and wind, and it occurs in Kallar watershed under a wide range of land uses. Erosion by water can be dramatic during storm events, resulting in wash-outs and gullies. It can also be insidious, occurring as sheet and rill erosion during heavy rains. Most of the soil lost by water erosion is by the processes of sheet and rill erosion. Land degradation and subsequent soil erosion and sedimentation play a significant role in impairing water resources within sub watersheds, watersheds and basins. Using conventional methods to assess soil erosion risk is expensive and time consuming. A comprehensive methodology that integrates Remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), coupled with the use of an empirical model (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation- RUSLE) to assess risk, can identify and assess soil erosion potential and estimate the value of soil loss. GIS data layers including, rainfall erosivity (R), soil erodability (K), slope length and steepness (LS), cover management (C) and conservation practice (P) factors were computed to determine their effects on average annual soil loss in the study area. The final map of annual soil erosion shows a maximum soil loss of 398.58 t/ h-1/ y-1. Based on the result soil erosion was classified in to soil erosion severity map with five classes, very low, low, moderate, high and critical respectively. Further RUSLE factors has been broken into two categories, soil erosion susceptibility (A=RKLS), and soil erosion hazard (A=RKLSCP) have been computed. It is understood that functions of C and P are factors that can be controlled and thus can greatly reduce soil loss through management and conservational measures.

  11. Estimating fish exploitation and aquatic habitat loss across diffuse inland recreational fisheries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Kerckhove, Derrick Tupper; Minns, Charles Kenneth; Chu, Cindy

    2015-01-01

    The current state of many freshwater fish stocks worldwide is largely unknown but suspected to be vulnerable to exploitation from recreational fisheries and habitat degradation. Both these factors, combined with complex ecological dynamics and the diffuse nature of inland fisheries could lead to an invisible collapse: the drastic decline in fish stocks without great public or management awareness. In this study we provide a method to address the pervasive knowledge gaps in regional rates of exploitation and habitat degradation, and demonstrate its use in one of North America's largest and most diffuse recreational freshwater fisheries (Ontario, Canada). We estimated that (1) fish stocks were highly exploited and in apparent danger of collapse in management zones close to large population centres, and (2) fish habitat was under a low but constant threat of degradation at rates comparable to deforestation in Ontario and throughout Canada. These findings confirm some commonly held, but difficult to quantify, beliefs in inland fisheries management but also provide some further insights including (1) large anthropogenic projects greater than one hectare could contribute much more to fish habitat loss on an area basis than the cumulative effect of smaller projects within one year, (2) hooking mortality from catch-and-release fisheries is likely a greater source of mortality than the harvest itself, and (3) in most northern management zones over 50% of the fisheries resources are not yet accessible to anglers. While this model primarily provides a framework to prioritize management decisions and further targeted stock assessments, we note that our regional estimates of fisheries productivity and exploitation were similar to broadscale monitoring efforts by the Province of Ontario. We discuss the policy implications from our results and extending the model to other jurisdictions and countries.

  12. A "total parameter estimation" method in the varification of distributed hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, M.; Qin, D.; Wang, H.

    2011-12-01

    Conventionally hydrological models are used for runoff or flood forecasting, hence the determination of model parameters are common estimated based on discharge measurements at the catchment outlets. With the advancement in hydrological sciences and computer technology, distributed hydrological models based on the physical mechanism such as SWAT, MIKESHE, and WEP, have gradually become the mainstream models in hydrology sciences. However, the assessments of distributed hydrological models and model parameter determination still rely on runoff and occasionally, groundwater level measurements. It is essential in many countries, including China, to understand the local and regional water cycle: not only do we need to simulate the runoff generation process and for flood forecasting in wet areas, we also need to grasp the water cycle pathways and consumption process of transformation in arid and semi-arid regions for the conservation and integrated water resources management. As distributed hydrological model can simulate physical processes within a catchment, we can get a more realistic representation of the actual water cycle within the simulation model. Runoff is the combined result of various hydrological processes, using runoff for parameter estimation alone is inherits problematic and difficult to assess the accuracy. In particular, in the arid areas, such as the Haihe River Basin in China, runoff accounted for only 17% of the rainfall, and very concentrated during the rainy season from June to August each year. During other months, many of the perennial rivers within the river basin dry up. Thus using single runoff simulation does not fully utilize the distributed hydrological model in arid and semi-arid regions. This paper proposed a "total parameter estimation" method to verify the distributed hydrological models within various water cycle processes, including runoff, evapotranspiration, groundwater, and soil water; and apply it to the Haihe river basin in

  13. Documentation of Significant Losses in Cornus florida L. Populations throughout the Appalachian Ecoregion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher M. Oswalt

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the last three decades the fungus Discula destructiva Redlin has severely impacted Cornus florida L. (flowering dogwood—hereafter “dogwood” populations throughout its range. This study estimates historical and current dogwood populations (number of trees across the Appalachian ecoregion. Objectives were to (1 quantify current dogwood populations in the Appalachian ecoregion, (2 quantify change over time in dogwood populations, and (3 identify trends in dogwood population shifts. Data from the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA database were compiled from 41 FIA units in 13 states for county-level estimates of the total number of all live dogwood trees on timberland within the Appalachian ecoregion. Analysis of covariance, comparing historical and current county-level dogwood population estimates with average change in forest density as the covariate, was used to identify significant changes within FIA units. Losses ranging from 25 to 100 percent of the sample population (<.05 were observed in 33 of the 41 (80 percent sampled FIA units. These results indicate that an important component of the eastern deciduous forest has experienced serious losses throughout the Appalachians and support localized empirical results and landscape-scale anecdotal evidence.

  14. Documentation of Significant Losses in Cornus florida L. Populations throughout the Appalachian Ecoregion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oswalt, Ch.M.; Oswalt, S.N.

    2010-01-01

    Over the last three decades the fungus Discula destructiva Redlin has severely impacted Cornus florida L. (flowering dogwood hereafter dogwood) populations throughout its range. This study estimates historical and current dogwood populations (number of trees) across the Appalachian ecoregion. Objectives were to (1) quantify current dogwood populations in the Appalachian eco region, (2) quantify change over time in dogwood populations, and (3) identify trends in dogwood population shifts. Data from the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database were compiled from 41 FIA units in 13 states for county-level estimates of the total number of all live dogwood trees on timberland within the Appalachian eco region. Analysis of covariance, comparing historical and current county-level dogwood population estimates with average change in forest density as the covariate, was used to identify significant changes within FIA units. Losses ranging from 25 to 100 percent of the sample population (ρ<.05) were observed in 33 of the 41 (80 percent) sampled FIA units. These results indicate that an important component of the eastern deciduous forest has experienced serious losses throughout the Appalachians and support localized empirical results and landscape-scale anecdotal evidence.

  15. Lost food, wasted resources: global food supply chain losses and their impacts on freshwater, cropland, and fertiliser use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kummu, M; de Moel, H; Porkka, M; Siebert, S; Varis, O; Ward, P J

    2012-11-01

    Reducing food losses and waste is considered to be one of the most promising measures to improve food security in the coming decades. Food losses also affect our use of resources, such as freshwater, cropland, and fertilisers. In this paper we estimate the global food supply losses due to lost and wasted food crops, and the resources used to produce them. We also quantify the potential food supply and resource savings that could be made by reducing food losses and waste. We used publically available global databases to conduct the study at the country level. We found that around one quarter of the produced food supply (614 kcal/cap/day) is lost within the food supply chain (FSC). The production of these lost and wasted food crops accounts for 24% of total freshwater resources used in food crop production (27 m(3)/cap/yr), 23% of total global cropland area (31 × 10(-3)ha/cap/yr), and 23% of total global fertiliser use (4.3 kg/cap/yr). The per capita use of resources for food losses is largest in North Africa & West-Central Asia (freshwater and cropland) and North America & Oceania (fertilisers). The smallest per capita use of resources for food losses is found in Sub-Saharan Africa (freshwater and fertilisers) and in Industrialised Asia (cropland). Relative to total food production, the smallest food supply and resource losses occur in South & Southeast Asia. If the lowest loss and waste percentages achieved in any region in each step of the FSC could be reached globally, food supply losses could be halved. By doing this, there would be enough food for approximately one billion extra people. Reducing the food losses and waste would thus be an important step towards increased food security, and would also increase the efficiency of resource use in food production. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Optimization of Photospheric Electric Field Estimates for Accurate Retrieval of Total Magnetic Energy Injection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lumme, E.; Pomoell, J.; Kilpua, E. K. J.

    2017-12-01

    Estimates of the photospheric magnetic, electric, and plasma velocity fields are essential for studying the dynamics of the solar atmosphere, for example through the derivative quantities of Poynting and relative helicity flux and using the fields to obtain the lower boundary condition for data-driven coronal simulations. In this paper we study the performance of a data processing and electric field inversion approach that requires only high-resolution and high-cadence line-of-sight or vector magnetograms, which we obtain from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The approach does not require any photospheric velocity estimates, and the lacking velocity information is compensated for using ad hoc assumptions. We show that the free parameters of these assumptions can be optimized to reproduce the time evolution of the total magnetic energy injection through the photosphere in NOAA AR 11158, when compared to recent state-of-the-art estimates for this active region. However, we find that the relative magnetic helicity injection is reproduced poorly, reaching at best a modest underestimation. We also discuss the effect of some of the data processing details on the results, including the masking of the noise-dominated pixels and the tracking method of the active region, neither of which has received much attention in the literature so far. In most cases the effect of these details is small, but when the optimization of the free parameters of the ad hoc assumptions is considered, a consistent use of the noise mask is required. The results found in this paper imply that the data processing and electric field inversion approach that uses only the photospheric magnetic field information offers a flexible and straightforward way to obtain photospheric magnetic and electric field estimates suitable for practical applications such as coronal modeling studies.

  17. Accuracy of different sensors for the estimation of pollutant concentrations (total suspended solids, total and dissolved chemical oxygen demand) in wastewater and stormwater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepot, Mathieu; Aubin, Jean-Baptiste; Bertrand-Krajewski, Jean-Luc

    2013-01-01

    Many field investigations have used continuous sensors (turbidimeters and/or ultraviolet (UV)-visible spectrophotometers) to estimate with a short time step pollutant concentrations in sewer systems. Few, if any, publications compare the performance of various sensors for the same set of samples. Different surrogate sensors (turbidity sensors, UV-visible spectrophotometer, pH meter, conductivity meter and microwave sensor) were tested to link concentrations of total suspended solids (TSS), total and dissolved chemical oxygen demand (COD), and sensors' outputs. In the combined sewer at the inlet of a wastewater treatment plant, 94 samples were collected during dry weather, 44 samples were collected during wet weather, and 165 samples were collected under both dry and wet weather conditions. From these samples, triplicate standard laboratory analyses were performed and corresponding sensors outputs were recorded. Two outlier detection methods were developed, based, respectively, on the Mahalanobis and Euclidean distances. Several hundred regression models were tested, and the best ones (according to the root mean square error criterion) are presented in order of decreasing performance. No sensor appears as the best one for all three investigated pollutants.

  18. Enhancement of kalman filter single loss detection capability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, G.W.; Downing, D.J.; Pike, D.H.

    1980-01-01

    A new technique to significantly increase the sensitivity of the Kalman filter to detect one-time losses for nuclear marterial accountability and control has been developed. The technique uses the innovations sequence obtained from a Kalman filter analysis of a material balance area. The innovations are distributed as zero mean independent Gaussion random variables with known variance. This property enables an estimator to be formed with enhanced one time loss detection capabilities. Simulation studies of a material balance area indicate the new estimator greatly enhances the one time loss detection capability of the Kalman filter

  19. Estimation of Soil loss by USLE Model using GIS and Remote Sensing techniques: A case study of Muhuri River Basin, Tripura, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amit Bera

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Soil erosion is a most severe environmental problem in humid sub-tropical hilly state Tripura. The present study is carried out on Muhuri river basin of Tripura state, North east India having an area of 614.54 Sq.km. In this paper, Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE model, with Geographic Information System (GIS and Remote Sensing (RS have been used to quantify the soil loss in the Muhuri river basin. Five essential parameters such as Runoff-rainfall erosivity factor (R, soil erodibility Factor (K, slope length and steepness (LS, cropping management factor (C, and support practice factor (P have been used to estimate soil loss amount in the study area. All of these layers have been prepared in GIS and RS platform (Mainly Arc GIS 10.1 using various data sources and data preparation methods. In these study DEM and LISS satellite data have been used. The daily rainfall data (2001-2010 of 6 rain gauge stations have been used to predict the R factor. Soil erodibility (K factor in Basin area ranged from 0.15 to 0.36. The spatial distribution map of soil loss of Muhuri river basin has been generated and classified into six categories according to intensity level of soil loss. The average annual predicted soil loss ranges between 0 to and 650 t/ha/y. Low soil loss areas (70 t/ha/y of soil erosion was found along the main course of Muhuri River.

  20. The Total Deviation Index estimated by Tolerance Intervals to evaluate the concordance of measurement devices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ascaso Carlos

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In an agreement assay, it is of interest to evaluate the degree of agreement between the different methods (devices, instruments or observers used to measure the same characteristic. We propose in this study a technical simplification for inference about the total deviation index (TDI estimate to assess agreement between two devices of normally-distributed measurements and describe its utility to evaluate inter- and intra-rater agreement if more than one reading per subject is available for each device. Methods We propose to estimate the TDI by constructing a probability interval of the difference in paired measurements between devices, and thereafter, we derive a tolerance interval (TI procedure as a natural way to make inferences about probability limit estimates. We also describe how the proposed method can be used to compute bounds of the coverage probability. Results The approach is illustrated in a real case example where the agreement between two instruments, a handle mercury sphygmomanometer device and an OMRON 711 automatic device, is assessed in a sample of 384 subjects where measures of systolic blood pressure were taken twice by each device. A simulation study procedure is implemented to evaluate and compare the accuracy of the approach to two already established methods, showing that the TI approximation produces accurate empirical confidence levels which are reasonably close to the nominal confidence level. Conclusions The method proposed is straightforward since the TDI estimate is derived directly from a probability interval of a normally-distributed variable in its original scale, without further transformations. Thereafter, a natural way of making inferences about this estimate is to derive the appropriate TI. Constructions of TI based on normal populations are implemented in most standard statistical packages, thus making it simpler for any practitioner to implement our proposal to assess agreement.