WorldWideScience

Sample records for total estimated reserves

  1. Estimating Foreign Exchange Reserve Adequacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Hakim

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Accumulating foreign exchange reserves, despite their cost and their impacts on other macroeconomics variables, provides some benefits. This paper models such foreign exchange reserves. To measure the adequacy of foreign exchange reserves for import, it uses total reserves-to-import ratio (TRM. The chosen independent variables are gross domestic product growth, exchange rates, opportunity cost, and a dummy variable separating the pre and post 1997 Asian financial crisis. To estimate the risky TRM value, this paper uses conditional Value-at-Risk (VaR, with the help of Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle (GJR model to estimate the conditional volatility. The results suggest that all independent variables significantly influence TRM. They also suggest that the short and long run volatilities are evident, with the additional evidence of asymmetric effects of negative and positive past shocks. The VaR, which are calculated assuming both normal and t distributions, provide similar results, namely violations in 2005 and 2008.

  2. A Bootstrap Approach to Computing Uncertainty in Inferred Oil and Gas Reserve Estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Attanasi, Emil D.; Coburn, Timothy C.

    2004-01-01

    This study develops confidence intervals for estimates of inferred oil and gas reserves based on bootstrap procedures. Inferred reserves are expected additions to proved reserves in previously discovered conventional oil and gas fields. Estimates of inferred reserves accounted for 65% of the total oil and 34% of the total gas assessed in the U.S. Geological Survey's 1995 National Assessment of oil and gas in US onshore and State offshore areas. When the same computational methods used in the 1995 Assessment are applied to more recent data, the 80-year (from 1997 through 2076) inferred reserve estimates for pre-1997 discoveries located in the lower 48 onshore and state offshore areas amounted to a total of 39.7 billion barrels of oil (BBO) and 293 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas. The 90% confidence interval about the oil estimate derived from the bootstrap approach is 22.4 BBO to 69.5 BBO. The comparable 90% confidence interval for the inferred gas reserve estimate is 217 TCF to 413 TCF. The 90% confidence interval describes the uncertainty that should be attached to the estimates. It also provides a basis for developing scenarios to explore the implications for energy policy analysis

  3. Total, accessible and reserve wind energy resources in Bulgaria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, P.; Trifonova, L.

    1996-01-01

    The article is a part of the international project 'Bulgaria Country Study to Address Climate Change Inventory of the Greenhouse Gases Emission and Sinks Alternative Energy Balance and Technology Programs' sponsored by the Department of Energy, US. The 'total' average annual wind resources in Bulgaria determined on the basis wind velocity density for more than 100 meteorological stations are estimated on 125 000 TWh. For the whole territory the theoretical wind power potential is about 14200 GW. The 'accessible' wind resources are estimated on about 62000 TWh. The 'reserve' (or usable) wind resources are determined using 8 velocity intervals for WECS (Wind Energy Conversion Systems) operation, number and disposition of turbines, and the usable (3%) part of the territory. The annual reserve resources are estimated at about 21 - 33 TWh. The 'economically beneficial' wind resources (EBWR) are those part of the reserve resources which could be included in the country energy balance using specific technologies in specific time period. It is foreseen that at year 2010 the EBWR could reach 0.028 TWh. 7 refs., 2 tabs., 1 fig

  4. North sea: a quarter of total's reserves (excluding the Middle East)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    In 1994, for the fifth successive year, Total increased its proven reserves of hydrocarbons which reach 4.3 Gboe (+ 6% compared to 1993). Outside the Middle East, the reserves show a development of 9% and reach the threshold of 2 Gboe. In 1994, Total's production of hydrocarbons reached 633,000 boe/d (+ 4%), despite a fall of 3% in oil production in the Middle East. Excluding the Middle East, production was increased to 345,000 boe/d (+ 12%), including 212,000 boe/d for gas (+ 20%). Exploration/production investments were 5.8 GF in 1994 (excluding labour) and the development program for reserves and production for the coming years is based on yearly investments of some 6 GF. Total's production in Europe, essentially in the North Sea, was 154,000 boe/d in 1994 (+ 12%). This zone has potential for significant growth for the group which has undertaken exploration surveys in the Western Shetlands and in Haltenbanken. In the British zone, the Dunbar field and its neighbour Ellon were brought into production in December 1994. In the Norwegian zone, the Froy field, was brought into production last June. In the Lille-Frigg field, whose production started in May, initial reserves are estimated at 6,7 Bcm of gas. Total Norge AS also has interests in the producing fields of Ekofisk, Frigg, East-Frigg, Heimdal, Sleipner East, Veslefrikk, Oseberg, Brage, in those of Sleipner West and Huldra (start-up scheduled for 1997) and in Troll (phase 1) which should be producing in 1996. In the Dutch zone, the K4b and K5a blocks brought into production last November hold reserves estimated at 20 Bcm; their production could reach 2 Bcm/year as from 1995. (authors). 1 tab., 1 photo

  5. 26 CFR 1.801-5 - Total reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... TAXES Life Insurance Companies § 1.801-5 Total reserves. (a) Total reserves defined. For purposes of... its highest aggregate reserve by taking State A's requirement of 10 against its life insurance business and adding it to State B's requirement of 7 against its annuity business. (b) Reserves required by...

  6. Methods for the estimation of uranium ore reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-01-01

    The Manual is designed mainly to provide assistance in uranium ore reserve estimation methods to mining engineers and geologists with limited experience in estimating reserves, especially to those working in developing countries. This Manual deals with the general principles of evaluation of metalliferous deposits but also takes into account the radioactivity of uranium ores. The methods presented have been generally accepted in the international uranium industry

  7. 99mTc-GSA dynamic SPECT for regional hepatic functional reserve estimation. Assessment of quantification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Eui-Hyo

    1999-01-01

    The aim of this study is the assessment of the physiological implication of estimated parameters and the clinical value of this analyzing method for hepatic functional reserve estimation. After venous injection of 185 MBq of GSA, fifteen sequential sets of SPECT data were acquired for 15 minutes. First 5 sets SPECT images were analyzed by Patlak plot and hepatic GSA clearance was obtained in each matrix. The sum of hepatic GSA clearance in each matrix (total hepatic GSA clearance) was calculated as an index of whole liver functional reserve. Total hepatic GSA clearance was compared with receptor index or effective blood flow (EHBF) of whole liver which were analyzed by Direct Integral Linear Least Square Regression (DILS) method for the assessment of the physiological implications of hepatic GSA clearance. The clinical value of total hepatic GSA clearance was assessed in comparisons with the conventional hepatic function test. A very good correlations were observed between total hepatic GSA clearance and receptor index, whereas the correlations between total hepatic GSA clearance and EHBF were not significant. Significant correlations were also observed between total hepatic GSA clearance and the conventional hepatic function tests, such as choline esterase, albumin, hepaplastin test, ICG R15. (K.H.)

  8. Ore reserve estimation of uranium deposit Zirovski vrh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukacs, E.

    1979-01-01

    The uranium ore deposit Zirovski vrh is in the Permian sediments of Northwest Yugoslavia. Lenticular bodies occur at several stratiform levels in grey, medium-grained sandstone. The ore deposit will be mined entirely by underground methods. It is possible to define three stages of deposit evaluation requiring different densities of exploration effort: preliminary evaluation of in situ ore reserves; evaluation of mineable ore reserves; evaluation of production capability and mine planning. The drilling density increases markedly with each succeeding stage. The optimal drilling density for all three stages of evaluation should be determined, but there is some concern that too close spaced drilling would considerably increase the exploration costs without a corresponding increase in effectiveness. On the other hand, too sparsely spaced drilling may result in some difficulties in following the ore in mining. The paper treats the problem of the density of drilling for evaluation of mineable ore reserves compared to that required for mine planning and mine production capability. The purpose of investigation of mineral raw materials is to define economic deposits (ore bodies). To evaluate the deposit economically an accurate reserve estimate is required. If it is accordingly established that such an estimate is within the degree of admissible error, the purpose of the exploration is satisfied. However, the problem as to whether the drilling grid is sufficiently dense remains, because the majority of estimates of ore reserves do not provide a measure of the reliability of the estimate. (author)

  9. Improvements to the quality of the estimates of US uranium reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nikodem, Z.D.

    1998-01-01

    Extensive work has been done in the United States in the estimation of uranium reserves. The government's role in uranium raw materials shifted from support of military programmes to assessing the supply available for commercial power generation. A comprehensive system evolved in which government staff estimated reserves for each property over a range of cost levels using standardized estimation methodology and criteria. The programme was assigned to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the Department of Energy in 1983 which has the responsibility for reporting on energy resources. As uranium supply had increased and demand had decreased, there was less concern about the adequacy of resources. In this situation, and with reduced staffing levels, the EIA adopted a two part interim approach to preparing reserve estimates. One used questionnaires to obtain uranium company estimates of their economic and subeconomic reserves, with company determined economic criteria. A second approach modified the earlier detailed government property estimates to account for production. The EIA developed a new system with the assistance of consultants and the uranium industry. The goal of the new system is to produce one set of estimates at various cost categories for each property based on a rigorous adherence to EIA criteria. Initial information is gathered from the industry through a revised annual questionnaire. Company estimates that conform to EIA standards are incorporated into the EIA reserve data base. Additional information is gathered for those estimates requiring clarification, primarily through detailed technical conferences with company staff. The EIA has the capability to prepare independent reserve estimates from basic drill hole data when required. Uranium reserves estimated for 1990 by the EIA include the initial results from the new methodology. The cooperation and support of the uranium industry have been excellent. Detailed evaluation of properties is

  10. Population: Census Bureau Total Estimates (2010-2012)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — Total population estimates are estimates of the total number of residents living in an area on July 1 of each year. The Census Bureau’s Population Division produces...

  11. Estimation of gas reserves in North America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laherrere, J.

    2001-01-01

    If the oil market is global, the gas market is divided into three zones: North America, Europe and Asia. The official forecast of the future demand of North America gas is optimist as it is based on estimates of resources which are ten times those of the proved reserves. The poor practice (SEC rules) of proved reserves (when the rest of the world uses proven+probable) leads to a constant revision and a growth of the past discoveries, showing well a wrong evaluation. The official databases are then very poor, even those of the US federal domain, which have to be public. The study of the technical data of reserves of US, Canada and Mexico leads to a more pessimistic estimation of the ultimate reserves and then to the future local supply. In the Gulf of Mexico (the main hope), the production of natural gas in shallow water decline and the discoveries in the deep-water are mainly oil. The non-conventional gas seems to level. But the future demand is also too optimistic, based on cheap price and on a steady growth. However the local gas supply will be likely insufficient, and the demand will need imported liquefied natural gas. (author)

  12. Ore reserve estimation: a summary of principles and methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques, J.P.M.

    1985-01-01

    The mining industry has experienced substantial improvements with the increasing utilization of computerized and electronic devices throughout the last few years. In the ore reserve estimation field the main methods have undergone recent advances in order to improve their overall efficiency. This paper presents the three main groups of ore reserve estimation methods presently used worldwide: Conventional, Statistical and Geostatistical, and elaborates a detaited description and comparative analysis of each. The Conventional Methods are the oldest, less complex and most employed ones. The Geostatistical Methods are the most recent precise and more complex ones. The Statistical Methods are intermediate to the others in complexity, diffusion and chronological order. (D.J.M.) [pt

  13. The use of bioelectrical impedance analysis to estimate total body water in young children with cerebral palsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Kristie L; Boyd, Roslyn N; Walker, Jacqueline L; Stevenson, Richard D; Davies, Peter S W

    2013-08-01

    Body composition assessment is an essential component of nutritional evaluation in children with cerebral palsy. This study aimed to validate bioelectrical impedance to estimate total body water in young children with cerebral palsy and determine best electrode placement in unilateral impairment. 55 young children with cerebral palsy across all functional ability levels were included. Height/length was measured or estimated from knee height. Total body water was estimated using a Bodystat 1500MDD and three equations, and measured using the gold standard, deuterium dilution technique. Comparisons were made using Bland Altman analysis. For children with bilateral impairment, the Fjeld equation estimated total body water with the least bias (limits of agreement): 0.0 L (-1.4 L to 1.5 L); the Pencharz equation produced the greatest: 2.7 L (0.6 L-4.8 L). For children with unilateral impairment, differences between measured and estimated total body water were lowest on the unimpaired side using the Fjeld equation 0.1 L (-1.5 L to 1.6 L)) and greatest for the Pencharz equation. The ability of bioelectrical impedance to estimate total body water depends on the equation chosen. The Fjeld equation was the most accurate for the group, however, individual results varied by up to 18%. A population specific equation was developed and may enhance the accuracy of estimates. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) number: ACTRN12611000616976. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  14. Model-based estimation of finite population total in stratified sampling

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The work presented in this paper concerns the estimation of finite population total under model – based framework. Nonparametric regression approach as a method of estimating finite population total is explored. The asymptotic properties of the estimators based on nonparametric regression are also developed under ...

  15. Natural gas reserves/total energy consumption: a useful new ratio for addressing global climate change concerns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqi, T.A.

    2002-01-01

    Energy analysts have used the reserves/production ratios for oil and natural gas for decades as indicators of the ability of countries to maintain or increase their production of those fuels. The global community is now faced with the challenge of reducing carbon dioxide emissions from a variety of sources, with the energy sector being the largest contributor to the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Natural gas has emerged as a highly desirable fuel, since it produces lower emissions of carbon dioxide than coal or oil for equivalent amounts of energy supplied. The ratio of a country's proven natural gas reserves to its total energy consumption is a good indicator of its ability to improve its air quality situation or address greenhouse gas reduction targets from domestic natural gas sources. This paper provides the ratio for several countries at different stages of development, and discusses some of the implications. In countries where exploration for natural gas has been limited, the estimated resources in place may sometimes be a more useful indicator than proven reserves, and could be used instead. (author)

  16. Effect of survey design and catch rate estimation on total catch estimates in Chinook salmon fisheries

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael C.; Schill, Daniel J.

    2012-01-01

    Roving–roving and roving–access creel surveys are the primary techniques used to obtain information on harvest of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in Idaho sport fisheries. Once interviews are conducted using roving–roving or roving–access survey designs, mean catch rate can be estimated with the ratio-of-means (ROM) estimator, the mean-of-ratios (MOR) estimator, or the MOR estimator with exclusion of short-duration (≤0.5 h) trips. Our objective was to examine the relative bias and precision of total catch estimates obtained from use of the two survey designs and three catch rate estimators for Idaho Chinook salmon fisheries. Information on angling populations was obtained by direct visual observation of portions of Chinook salmon fisheries in three Idaho river systems over an 18-d period. Based on data from the angling populations, Monte Carlo simulations were performed to evaluate the properties of the catch rate estimators and survey designs. Among the three estimators, the ROM estimator provided the most accurate and precise estimates of mean catch rate and total catch for both roving–roving and roving–access surveys. On average, the root mean square error of simulated total catch estimates was 1.42 times greater and relative bias was 160.13 times greater for roving–roving surveys than for roving–access surveys. Length-of-stay bias and nonstationary catch rates in roving–roving surveys both appeared to affect catch rate and total catch estimates. Our results suggest that use of the ROM estimator in combination with an estimate of angler effort provided the least biased and most precise estimates of total catch for both survey designs. However, roving–access surveys were more accurate than roving–roving surveys for Chinook salmon fisheries in Idaho.

  17. A test and re-estimation of Taylor's empirical capacity-reserve relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, K.R.

    2009-01-01

    In 1977, Taylor proposed a constant elasticity model relating capacity choice in mines to reserves. A test of this model using a very large (n = 1,195) dataset confirms its validity but obtains significantly different estimated values for the model coefficients. Capacity is somewhat inelastic with respect to reserves, with an elasticity of 0.65 estimated for open-pit plus block-cave underground mines and 0.56 for all other underground mines. These new estimates should be useful for capacity determinations as scoping studies and as a starting point for feasibility studies. The results are robust over a wide range of deposit types, deposit sizes, and time, consistent with physical constraints on mine capacity that are largely independent of technology. ?? 2009 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

  18. False high level in total bilirubin estimation in nonicteric serum

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    estimation of total bilirubin by DiaSys and Randox reagents along with simultaneous re-estimation by Roche reagents in ... been used mainly due to slightly lower cost in ... MATERIALS AND METHODS ... air-conditioned laboratory overnight. ..... Elevated IgG causing spurious elevation in serum total bilirubin assay. Asia.

  19. PFP total operating efficiency calculation and basis of estimate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SINCLAIR, J.C.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) Total Operating Efficiency Calculation and Basis of Estimate document is to provide the calculated value and basis of estimate for the Total Operating Efficiency (TOE) for the material stabilization operations to be conducted in 234-52 Building. This information will be used to support both the planning and execution of the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) Stabilization and Deactivation Project's (hereafter called the Project) resource-loaded, integrated schedule

  20. Reserves' potential of sedimentary basin: modeling and estimation; Potentiel de reserves d'un bassin petrolier: modelisation et estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lepez, V

    2002-12-01

    The aim of this thesis is to build a statistical model of oil and gas fields' sizes distribution in a given sedimentary basin, for both the fields that exist in:the subsoil and those which have already been discovered. The estimation of all the parameters of the model via estimation of the density of the observations by model selection of piecewise polynomials by penalized maximum likelihood techniques enables to provide estimates of the total number of fields which are yet to be discovered, by class of size. We assume that the set of underground fields' sizes is an i.i.d. sample of unknown population with Levy-Pareto law with unknown parameter. The set of already discovered fields is a sub-sample without replacement from the previous which is 'size-biased'. The associated inclusion probabilities are to be estimated. We prove that the probability density of the observations is the product of the underlying density and of an unknown weighting function representing the sampling bias. An arbitrary partition of the sizes' interval being set (called a model), the analytical solutions of likelihood maximization enables to estimate both the parameter of the underlying Levy-Pareto law and the weighting function, which is assumed to be piecewise constant and based upon the partition. We shall add a monotonousness constraint over the latter, taking into account the fact that the bigger a field, the higher its probability of being discovered. Horvitz-Thompson-like estimators finally give the conclusion. We then allow our partitions to vary inside several classes of models and prove a model selection theorem which aims at selecting the best partition within a class, in terms of both Kuilback and Hellinger risk of the associated estimator. We conclude by simulations and various applications to real data from sedimentary basins of four continents, in order to illustrate theoretical as well as practical aspects of our model. (author)

  1. Estimation of Total Tree Height from Renewable Resources Evaluation Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles E. Thomas

    1981-01-01

    Many ecological, biological, and genetic studies use the measurement of total tree height. Until recently, the Southern Forest Experiment Station's inventory procedures through Renewable Resources Evaluation (RRE) have not included total height measurements. This note provides equations to estimate total height based on other RRE measurements.

  2. Reliability/Cost Evaluation on Power System connected with Wind Power for the Reserve Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Go-Eun; Cha, Seung-Tae; Shin, Je-Seok

    2012-01-01

    Wind power is ideally a renewable energy with no fuel cost, but has a risk to reduce reliability of the whole system because of uncertainty of the output. If the reserve of the system is increased, the reliability of the system may be improved. However, the cost would be increased. Therefore...... the reserve needs to be estimated considering the trade-off between reliability and economic aspects. This paper suggests a methodology to estimate the appropriate reserve, when wind power is connected to the power system. As a case study, when wind power is connected to power system of Korea, the effects...

  3. Reserves' potential of sedimentary basin: modeling and estimation; Potentiel de reserves d'un bassin petrolier: modelisation et estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lepez, V.

    2002-12-01

    The aim of this thesis is to build a statistical model of oil and gas fields' sizes distribution in a given sedimentary basin, for both the fields that exist in:the subsoil and those which have already been discovered. The estimation of all the parameters of the model via estimation of the density of the observations by model selection of piecewise polynomials by penalized maximum likelihood techniques enables to provide estimates of the total number of fields which are yet to be discovered, by class of size. We assume that the set of underground fields' sizes is an i.i.d. sample of unknown population with Levy-Pareto law with unknown parameter. The set of already discovered fields is a sub-sample without replacement from the previous which is 'size-biased'. The associated inclusion probabilities are to be estimated. We prove that the probability density of the observations is the product of the underlying density and of an unknown weighting function representing the sampling bias. An arbitrary partition of the sizes' interval being set (called a model), the analytical solutions of likelihood maximization enables to estimate both the parameter of the underlying Levy-Pareto law and the weighting function, which is assumed to be piecewise constant and based upon the partition. We shall add a monotonousness constraint over the latter, taking into account the fact that the bigger a field, the higher its probability of being discovered. Horvitz-Thompson-like estimators finally give the conclusion. We then allow our partitions to vary inside several classes of models and prove a model selection theorem which aims at selecting the best partition within a class, in terms of both Kuilback and Hellinger risk of the associated estimator. We conclude by simulations and various applications to real data from sedimentary basins of four continents, in order to illustrate theoretical as well as practical aspects of our model. (author)

  4. Procedure for estimating permanent total enclosure costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lukey, M.E.; Prasad, C.; Toothman, D.A.; Kaplan, N.

    1999-07-01

    Industries that use add-on control devices must adequately capture emissions before delivering them to the control device. One way to capture emissions is to use permanent total enclosures (PTEs). By definition, an enclosure which meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's five-point criteria is a PTE and has a capture efficiency of 100%. Since costs play an important role in regulatory development, in selection of control equipment, and in control technology evaluations for permitting purposes, EPA has developed a Control Cost Manual for estimating costs of various items of control equipment. EPA's Manual does not contain any methodology for estimating PTE costs. In order to assist environmental regulators and potential users of PTEs, a methodology for estimating PTE costs was developed under contract with EPA, by Pacific Environmental Services, Inc. (PES) and is the subject of this paper. The methodology for estimating PTE costs follows the approach used for other control devices in the Manual. It includes procedures for sizing various components of a PTE and for estimating capital as well as annual costs. It contains verification procedures for demonstrating compliance with EPA's five-point criteria. In addition, procedures are included to determine compliance with Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) standards. Meeting these standards is an important factor in properly designing PTEs. The methodology is encoded in Microsoft Exel spreadsheets to facilitate cost estimation and PTE verification. Examples are given throughout the methodology development and in the spreadsheets to illustrate the PTE design, verification, and cost estimation procedures.

  5. Procedure for estimating permanent total enclosure costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lukey, M E; Prasad, C; Toothman, D A; Kaplan, N

    1999-07-01

    Industries that use add-on control devices must adequately capture emissions before delivering them to the control device. One way to capture emissions is to use permanent total enclosures (PTEs). By definition, an enclosure which meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's five-point criteria is a PTE and has a capture efficiency of 100%. Since costs play an important role in regulatory development, in selection of control equipment, and in control technology evaluations for permitting purposes, EPA has developed a Control Cost Manual for estimating costs of various items of control equipment. EPA's Manual does not contain any methodology for estimating PTE costs. In order to assist environmental regulators and potential users of PTEs, a methodology for estimating PTE costs was developed under contract with EPA, by Pacific Environmental Services, Inc. (PES) and is the subject of this paper. The methodology for estimating PTE costs follows the approach used for other control devices in the Manual. It includes procedures for sizing various components of a PTE and for estimating capital as well as annual costs. It contains verification procedures for demonstrating compliance with EPA's five-point criteria. In addition, procedures are included to determine compliance with Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) standards. Meeting these standards is an important factor in properly designing PTEs. The methodology is encoded in Microsoft Exel spreadsheets to facilitate cost estimation and PTE verification. Examples are given throughout the methodology development and in the spreadsheets to illustrate the PTE design, verification, and cost estimation procedures.

  6. PFP total process throughput calculation and basis of estimate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SINCLAIR, J.C.

    1999-01-01

    The PFP Process Throughput Calculation and Basis of Estimate document provides the calculated value and basis of estimate for process throughput associated with material stabilization operations conducted in 234-52 Building. The process throughput data provided reflects the best estimates of material processing rates consistent with experience at the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) and other U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sites. The rates shown reflect demonstrated capacity during ''full'' operation. They do not reflect impacts of building down time. Therefore, these throughput rates need to have a Total Operating Efficiency (TOE) factor applied

  7. Methods of multicriterion estimations in system total quality management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolay V. Diligenskiy

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available In this article the method of multicriterion comparative estimation of efficiency (Data Envelopment Analysis and possibility of its application in system of total quality management is considered.

  8. Reserves in western basins: Part 1, Greater Green River basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-10-01

    This study characterizes an extremely large gas resource located in low permeability, overpressured sandstone reservoirs located below 8,000 feet drill depth in the Greater Green River basin, Wyoming. Total in place resource is estimated at 1,968 Tcf. Via application of geologic, engineering and economic criteria, the portion of this resource potentially recoverable as reserves is estimated. Those volumes estimated include probable, possible and potential categories and total 33 Tcf as a mean estimate of recoverable gas for all plays considered in the basin. Five plays (formations) were included in this study and each was separately analyzed in terms of its overpressured, tight gas resource, established productive characteristics and future reserves potential based on a constant $2/Mcf wellhead gas price scenario. A scheme has been developed to break the overall resource estimate down into components that can be considered as differing technical and economic challenges that must be overcome in order to exploit such resources: in other words, to convert those resources to economically recoverable reserves. Total recoverable reserves estimates of 33 Tcf do not include the existing production from overpressured tight reservoirs in the basin. These have estimated ultimate recovery of approximately 1.6 Tcf, or a per well average recovery of 2.3 Bcf. Due to the fact that considerable pay thicknesses can be present, wells can be economic despite limited drainage areas. It is typical for significant bypassed gas to be present at inter-well locations because drainage areas are commonly less than regulatory well spacing requirements.

  9. Application of the control variate technique to estimation of total sensitivity indices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kucherenko, S.; Delpuech, B.; Iooss, B.; Tarantola, S.

    2015-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is widely used in many areas of science, biology, sociology and policy planning. The variance-based methods also known as Sobol' sensitivity indices has become the method of choice among practitioners due to its efficiency and ease of interpretation. For complex practical problems, estimation of Sobol' sensitivity indices generally requires a large number of function evaluations to achieve reasonable convergence. To improve the efficiency of the Monte Carlo estimates for the Sobol' total sensitivity indices we apply the control variate reduction technique and develop a new formula for evaluation of total sensitivity indices. Presented results using well known test functions show the efficiency of the developed technique. - Highlights: • We analyse the efficiency of the Monte Carlo estimates of Sobol' sensitivity indices. • The control variate technique is applied for estimation of total sensitivity indices. • We develop a new formula for evaluation of Sobol' total sensitivity indices. • We present test results demonstrating the high efficiency of the developed formula

  10. Estimating total 239240Pu in blow-sand mounds of two safety-shot sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, R.O.; Essington, E.H.

    1977-01-01

    A study for estimating the total amount (inventory) of 239 240 Pu in blow-sand mounds at two safety-shot sites (Area 13-Project 57 on the Nellis Air Force Base and Clean Slate 3 on the Tonopah Test Range in Nevada) is described. The total amount in blow-sand mounds at these two sites is estimated to be 5.8 +- 1.3 (total +- standard error) and 10.6 +- 2.5 curies, respectively. The total 239 240 Pu in mounds plus desert pavement areas, both to a depth of 5 cm below desert pavement level, is estimated to be 39 +- 5.7 curies at the Project 57 site and 36 +- 4.8 curies at Clean Slate 3. These estimates are compared with the somewhat higher estimates of 46 +- 9 and 37 +- 5.4 curies reported that pertain to only the top 5 cm of mounds and desert pavement. The possibility is discussed that these differences are due to sampling variability arising from the skewed nature of plutonium concentrations, particularly near ground zero

  11. The Nature and Use of Copper Reserve and Resource Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Dennis P.; Wright, Nancy A.; Coakley, George J.

    1981-01-01

    Copper reserve, resource, and production data can be combined to produce disaggregated resource estimates and trends and, when combined with demand forecasts, can be used to predict future exploration and development requirements. Reserve estimates are subject to uncertainties due mainly to incomplete exploration and rapidly changing economic conditions. United States' reserve estimates in the past have been low mainly because knowledge of the magnitude of very large porphyry-copper deposits has been incomplete. Present estimates are considerably more reliable because mining firms tend to drill out deposits fully before mining and to release their reserve estimates to the public. The sum of reserves and past production yields an estimate of the total ore, total metal contained in ore, and average grade of ore originally in each of the deposits known in the United States. For most deposits, estimates of total copper in ore are low relative to the total copper in mineralized rock, and many estimates are strongly affected by the economic behavior of mining firms. A better estimate of the real distribution of copper contained in deposits can be obtained by combining past production data with resource estimates. Copper resource data are disaggregated into categories that include resources in undeveloped deposits similar to those mined in the past, resources in mines closed because of unfavorable economic conditions, resources in deep deposits requiring high-cost mining methods, arid resources in deposits located in areas where environmental restrictions have contributed to delays in development. The largest resource is located in the five largest porphyry deposits. These deposits are now being mined but the resources are not included in the present mining plan. Resources in this last category will not contribute to supply until some future time when ores presently being mined are depleted. A high correlation exists between total copper contained in deposits and annual

  12. Oil Reserves and Production in the Gulf with Special Reference to Qatar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibrahim, Ismail.

    1998-01-01

    Oil and natural gas potential of the Gulf Arab Countries is substantial. The proven oil reserves of these countries constitute 55% of total world proven oil reserves. The Gulf Arab Countries possess 576 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves, as compared to total world proven oil reserves of around 1047. Natural gas resources are also plentiful in the Gulf Arab Countries. Proven natural gas reserves were estimated at around 26 trillion cubic metres, at the beginning of 1997. This figure represents around 17% of total world proven natural gas reserves of around 153 trillion cubic metres

  13. Estimated Intakes and Sources of Total and Added Sugars in the Canadian Diet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tristin D. Brisbois

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available National food supply data and dietary surveys are essential to estimate nutrient intakes and monitor trends, yet there are few published studies estimating added sugars consumption. The purpose of this report was to estimate and trend added sugars intakes and their contribution to total energy intake among Canadians by, first, using Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS nutrition survey data of intakes of sugars in foods and beverages, and second, using Statistics Canada availability data and adjusting these for wastage to estimate intakes. Added sugars intakes were estimated from CCHS data by categorizing the sugars content of food groups as either added or naturally occurring. Added sugars accounted for approximately half of total sugars consumed. Annual availability data were obtained from Statistics Canada CANSIM database. Estimates for added sugars were obtained by summing the availability of “sugars and syrups” with availability of “soft drinks” (proxy for high fructose corn syrup and adjusting for waste. Analysis of both survey and availability data suggests that added sugars average 11%–13% of total energy intake. Availability data indicate that added sugars intakes have been stable or modestly declining as a percent of total energy over the past three decades. Although these are best estimates based on available data, this analysis may encourage the development of better databases to help inform public policy recommendations.

  14. Estimated intakes and sources of total and added sugars in the Canadian diet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brisbois, Tristin D; Marsden, Sandra L; Anderson, G Harvey; Sievenpiper, John L

    2014-05-08

    National food supply data and dietary surveys are essential to estimate nutrient intakes and monitor trends, yet there are few published studies estimating added sugars consumption. The purpose of this report was to estimate and trend added sugars intakes and their contribution to total energy intake among Canadians by, first, using Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) nutrition survey data of intakes of sugars in foods and beverages, and second, using Statistics Canada availability data and adjusting these for wastage to estimate intakes. Added sugars intakes were estimated from CCHS data by categorizing the sugars content of food groups as either added or naturally occurring. Added sugars accounted for approximately half of total sugars consumed. Annual availability data were obtained from Statistics Canada CANSIM database. Estimates for added sugars were obtained by summing the availability of "sugars and syrups" with availability of "soft drinks" (proxy for high fructose corn syrup) and adjusting for waste. Analysis of both survey and availability data suggests that added sugars average 11%-13% of total energy intake. Availability data indicate that added sugars intakes have been stable or modestly declining as a percent of total energy over the past three decades. Although these are best estimates based on available data, this analysis may encourage the development of better databases to help inform public policy recommendations.

  15. Reserve growth of the world's giant oil fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klett, T.R.; Schmoker, J.W.

    2005-01-01

    Analysis of estimated total recoverable oil volume (field size) of 186 well-known giant oil fields of the world (>0.5 billion bbl of oil, discovered prior to 1981), exclusive of the United States and Canada, demonstrates general increases in field sizes through time. Field sizes were analyzed as a group and within subgroups of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC countries. From 1981 through 1996, the estimated volume of oil in the 186 fields for which adequate data were available increased from 617 billion to 777 billion bbl of oil (26%). Processes other than new field discoveries added an estimated 160 billion bbl of oil to known reserves in this subset of the world's oil fields. Although methods for estimating field sizes vary among countries, estimated sizes of the giant oil fields of the world increased, probably for many of the same reasons that estimated sizes of oil fields in the United States increased over the same time period. Estimated volumes in OPEC fields increased from a total of 550 billion to 668 billion bbl of oil and volumes in non-OPEC fields increased from 67 billion to 109 billion bbl of oil. In terms of percent change, non-OPEC field sizes increased more than OPEC field sizes (63% versus 22%). The changes in estimated total recoverable oil volumes that occurred within three 5-year increments between 1981 and 1996 were all positive. Between 1981 and 1986, the increase in estimated total recoverable oil volume within the 186 giant oil fields was 11 billion bbl of oil; between 1986 and 1991, the increase was 120 billion bbl of oil; and between 1991 and 1996, the increase was 29 billion bbl of oil. Fields in both OPEC and non-OPEC countries followed trends of substantial reserve growth.

  16. An Estimate of the Total DNA in the Biosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landenmark, Hanna K E; Forgan, Duncan H; Cockell, Charles S

    2015-06-01

    Modern whole-organism genome analysis, in combination with biomass estimates, allows us to estimate a lower bound on the total information content in the biosphere: 5.3 × 1031 (±3.6 × 1031) megabases (Mb) of DNA. Given conservative estimates regarding DNA transcription rates, this information content suggests biosphere processing speeds exceeding yottaNOPS values (1024 Nucleotide Operations Per Second). Although prokaryotes evolved at least 3 billion years before plants and animals, we find that the information content of prokaryotes is similar to plants and animals at the present day. This information-based approach offers a new way to quantify anthropogenic and natural processes in the biosphere and its information diversity over time.

  17. US crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This report presents estimates of proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids as of December 31, 1991, as well as production volumes for the United States, and selected States and State subdivisions for the year 1991. Estimates are presented for the following four categories of natural gas: total gas (wet after lease separation), its two major components (nonassociated and associated-dissolved gas), and total dry gas (wet gas adjusted for the removal of liquids at natural gas processing plants). In addition, two components of natural gas liquids, lease condensate and natural gas plant liquids, have their reserves and production data presented. Also included is information on indicated additional crude oil reserves and crude oil, natural gas, and lease condensate reserves in nonproducing reservoirs. A discussion of notable oil and gas exploration and development activities during 1991 is also presented

  18. Photometry-based estimation of the total number of stars in the Universe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manojlović, Lazo M

    2015-07-20

    A novel photometry-based estimation of the total number of stars in the Universe is presented. The estimation method is based on the energy conservation law and actual measurements of the extragalactic background light levels. By assuming that every radiated photon is kept within the Universe volume, i.e., by approximating the Universe as an integrating cavity without losses, the total number of stars in the Universe of about 6×1022 has been obtained.

  19. Multilevel systematic sampling to estimate total fruit number for yield forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulfsohn, Dvora-Laio; Zamora, Felipe Aravena; Tellez, Camilla Potin

    2012-01-01

    procedure for unbiased estimation of fruit number for yield forecasts. In the Spring of 2009 we estimated the total number of fruit in several rows of each of 14 commercial fruit orchards growing apple (11 groves), kiwifruit (two groves), and table grapes (one grove) in central Chile. Survey times were 10...

  20. Estimation of Total Error in DWPF Reported Radionuclide Inventories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, T.B.

    1995-01-01

    This report investigates the impact of random errors due to measurement and sampling on the reported concentrations of radionuclides in DWPF's filled canister inventory resulting from each macro-batch. The objective of this investigation is to estimate the variance of the total error in reporting these radionuclide concentrations

  1. Precise estimation of total solar radiation on tilted surface

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    rajeev

    rarely available required for precise sizing of energy systems. The total solar radiation at different orientation and slope is needed to calculate the efficiency of the installed solar energy systems. To calculate clearness index (Kt) used by Gueymard (2000) for estimating solar irradiation H, irradiation at the earth's surface has ...

  2. Estimating Soil Bulk Density and Total Nitrogen from Catchment ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Even though data on soil bulk density (BD) and total nitrogen (TN) are essential for planning modern farming techniques, their data availability is limited for many applications in the developing word. This study is designed to estimate BD and TN from soil properties, land-use systems, soil types and landforms in the ...

  3. US crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves 1996 annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-01

    The EIA annual reserves report series is the only source of comprehensive domestic proved reserves estimates. This publication is used by the Congress, Federal and State agencies, industry, and other interested parties to obtain accurate estimates of the Nation`s proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. These data are essential to the development, implementation, and evaluation of energy policy and legislation. This report presents estimates of proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids as of December 31, 1996, as well as production volumes for the US and selected States and State subdivisions for the year 1996. Estimates are presented for the following four categories of natural gas: total gas (wet after lease separation), nonassociated gas and associated-dissolved gas (which are the two major types of wet natural gas), and total dry gas (wet gas adjusted for the removal of liquids at natural gas processing plants). In addition, reserve estimates for two types of natural gas liquids, lease condensate and natural gas plant liquids, are presented. Also included is information on indicated additional crude oil reserves and crude oil, natural gas, and lease condensate reserves in nonproducing reservoirs. A discussion of notable oil and gas exploration and development activities during 1996 is provided. 21 figs., 16 tabs.

  4. Total body skeletal muscle mass: estimation by creatine (methyl-d3) dilution in humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Ann C.; O'Connor-Semmes, Robin L.; Leonard, Michael S.; Miller, Ram R.; Stimpson, Stephen A.; Turner, Scott M.; Ravussin, Eric; Cefalu, William T.; Hellerstein, Marc K.; Evans, William J.

    2014-01-01

    Current methods for clinical estimation of total body skeletal muscle mass have significant limitations. We tested the hypothesis that creatine (methyl-d3) dilution (D3-creatine) measured by enrichment of urine D3-creatinine reveals total body creatine pool size, providing an accurate estimate of total body skeletal muscle mass. Healthy subjects with different muscle masses [n = 35: 20 men (19–30 yr, 70–84 yr), 15 postmenopausal women (51–62 yr, 70–84 yr)] were housed for 5 days. Optimal tracer dose was explored with single oral doses of 30, 60, or 100 mg D3-creatine given on day 1. Serial plasma samples were collected for D3-creatine pharmacokinetics. All urine was collected through day 5. Creatine and creatinine (deuterated and unlabeled) were measured by liquid chromatography mass spectrometry. Total body creatine pool size and muscle mass were calculated from D3-creatinine enrichment in urine. Muscle mass was also measured by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and traditional 24-h urine creatinine. D3-creatine was rapidly absorbed and cleared with variable urinary excretion. Isotopic steady-state of D3-creatinine enrichment in the urine was achieved by 30.7 ± 11.2 h. Mean steady-state enrichment in urine provided muscle mass estimates that correlated well with MRI estimates for all subjects (r = 0.868, P creatine dose determined by urine D3-creatinine enrichment provides an estimate of total body muscle mass strongly correlated with estimates from serial MRI with less bias than total lean body mass assessment by DXA. PMID:24764133

  5. Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shutt, Deborah P; Manore, Carrie A; Pankavich, Stephen; Porter, Aaron T; Del Valle, Sara Y

    2017-12-01

    As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015/2016 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification. The model indicated that a country-level analysis was not appropriate for Colombia. We then estimated the basic reproduction number to range between 4 and 6 for El Salvador and Suriname with a median of 4.3 and 5.3, respectively. We estimated the reporting rate to be around 16% in El Salvador and 18% in Suriname with estimated total outbreak sizes of 73,395 and 21,647 people, respectively. The uncertainty in parameter estimates highlights a need for research and data collection that will better constrain parameter ranges. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. U.S. crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves 1995 annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-11-01

    The EIA annual reserves report series is the only source of comprehensive domestic proved reserves estimates. This publication is used by the Congress, Federal and State agencies, industry, and other interested parties to obtain accurate estimates of the Nation`s proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. These data are essential to the development, implementation, and evaluation of energy policy and legislation. This report presents estimates of proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids as of December 31, 1995, as well as production volumes for the US and selected States and State subdivisions for the year 1995. Estimates are presented for the following four categories of natural gas: total gas (wet after lease separation), nonassociated gas and associated-dissolved gas (which are the two major types of wet natural gas), and total dry gas (wet gas adjusted for the removal of liquids at natural gas processing plants). In addition, reserve estimates for two types of natural gas liquids, lease condensate and natural gas plant liquids, are presented. Also included is information on indicated additional crude oil reserves and crude oil, natural gas, and lease condensate reserves in nonproducing reservoirs. A discussion of notable oil and gas exploration and development activities during 1995 is provided. 21 figs., 16 tabs.

  7. Design-based stereological estimation of the total number of cardiac myocytes in histological sections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brüel, Annemarie; Nyengaard, Jens Randel

    2005-01-01

    in LM sections using design-based stereology. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From formalin-fixed left rat ventricles (LV) isotropic uniformly random sections were cut. The total number of myocyte nuclei per LV was estimated using the optical disector. Two-microm-thick serial paraffin sections were stained......BACKGROUND: Counting the total number of cardiac myocytes has not previously been possible in ordinary histological sections using light microscopy (LM) due to difficulties in defining the myocyte borders properly. AIM: To describe a method by which the total number of cardiac myocytes is estimated...... with antibodies against cadherin and type IV collagen to visualise the intercalated discs and the myocyte membranes, respectively. Using the physical disector in "local vertical windows" of the serial sections, the average number of nuclei per myocyte was estimated.RESULTS: The total number of myocyte nuclei...

  8. The Sandia total-dose estimator: SANDOSE description and user guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, C.D.

    1995-02-01

    The SANdia total-DOSe Estimator (SANDOSE) is used to estimate total radiation dose to a (BRL-CAT) solid model, SANDOSE uses the mass-sectoring technique to sample the model using ray-tracing techniques. The code is integrated directly into the BRL-CAD solid model editor and is operated using a simple graphical user interface. Several diagnostic tools are available to allow the user to analyze the results. Based on limited validation using several benchmark problems, results can be expected to fall between a 10% underestimate and a factor of 2 overestimate of the actual dose predicted by rigorous radiation transport techniques. However, other situations may be encountered where the results might fall outside of this range. The code is written in C and uses X-windows graphics. It presently runs on SUN SPARCstations, but in theory could be ported to any workstation with a C compiler and X-windows. SANDOSE is available via license by contacting either the Sandia National Laboratories Technology Transfer Center or the author

  9. U.S. crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves 1997 annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wood, John H.; Grape, Steven G.; Green, Rhonda S.

    1998-12-01

    This report presents estimates of proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids as of December 31, 1997, as well as production volumes for the US and selected States and State subdivisions for the year 1997. Estimates are presented for the following four categories of natural gas: total gas (wet after lease separation), nonassociated gas and associated-dissolved gas (which are the two major types of wet natural gas), and total dry gas (wet gas adjusted for the removal of liquids at natural gas processing plants). In addition, reserve estimates for two types of natural gas liquids, lease condensate and natural gas plant liquids, are presented. Also included is information on indicated additional crude oil reserves and crude oil, natural gas, and lease condensate reserves in nonproducing reservoirs. A discussion of notable oil and gas exploration and development activities during 1997 is provided. 21 figs., 16 tabs.

  10. Estimation of Total Body Fat from Potassium-40 Content

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taha Mohamed Taha Ahmed, T.M.T.

    2010-01-01

    This paper concerns on estimation of total body fat from potassium 40 content using total body counting technique. The work performed using fast scan whole body counter. Calibration of that system for K-40 was carried out under assumption that uniformity distribution of radioactivity of potassium was distributed in 10 polyethylene bottles phantom. Different body sizes were represented by 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 polyethylene bottles; each bottle has a volume of 0.04 m3. The counting efficiency for each body size was determined. Lean body weight (LBW) was calculated for ten males and ten females using appropriate mathematical equation. Total Body Potassium, TBK for the same selected group was measured using whole body counter. A mathematical relationship between lean body weight and potassium content was deduced .Fat contents for some individuals were calculated and weight/height ratio was indicated for fatness.

  11. Total arsenic in selected food samples from Argentina: Estimation of their contribution to inorganic arsenic dietary intake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigrist, Mirna; Hilbe, Nandi; Brusa, Lucila; Campagnoli, Darío; Beldoménico, Horacio

    2016-11-01

    An optimized flow injection hydride generation atomic absorption spectroscopy (FI-HGAAS) method was used to determine total arsenic in selected food samples (beef, chicken, fish, milk, cheese, egg, rice, rice-based products, wheat flour, corn flour, oats, breakfast cereals, legumes and potatoes) and to estimate their contributions to inorganic arsenic dietary intake. The limit of detection (LOD) and limit of quantification (LOQ) values obtained were 6μgkg(-)(1) and 18μgkg(-)(1), respectively. The mean recovery range obtained for all food at a fortification level of 200μgkg(-)(1) was 85-110%. Accuracy was evaluated using dogfish liver certified reference material (DOLT-3 NRC) for trace metals. The highest total arsenic concentrations (in μgkg(-)(1)) were found in fish (152-439), rice (87-316) and rice-based products (52-201). The contribution to inorganic arsenic (i-As) intake was calculated from the mean i-As content of each food (calculated by applying conversion factors to total arsenic data) and the mean consumption per day. The primary contributors to inorganic arsenic intake were wheat flour, including its proportion in wheat flour-based products (breads, pasta and cookies), followed by rice; both foods account for close to 53% and 17% of the intake, respectively. The i-As dietary intake, estimated as 10.7μgday(-)(1), was significantly lower than that from drinking water in vast regions of Argentina. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Total Discharge Estimation in the Korean Peninsula Using Multi-Satellite Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae Young Seo

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Estimation of total discharge is necessary to understand the hydrological cycle and to manage water resources efficiently. However, the task is problematic in an area where ground observations are limited. The North Korea region is one example. Here, the total discharge was estimated based on the water balance using multiple satellite products. They are the terrestrial water storage changes (TWSC derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE, precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM, and evapotranspiration from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS. The satellite-based discharge was compared with land surface model products of the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS, and a positive relationship between the results was obtained (r = 0.70–0.86; bias = −9.08–16.99 mm/month; RMSE = 36.90–62.56 mm/month; NSE = 0.01–0.62. Among the four land surface models of GLDAS (CLM, Mosaic, Noah, and VIC, CLM corresponded best with the satellite-based discharge, satellite-based discharge has a tendency to slightly overestimate compared to model-based discharge (CLM, Mosaic, Noah, and VIC in the dry season. Also, the total discharge data based on the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS and the in situ discharge for major five river basins in South Korea show comparable seasonality and high correlation with the satellite-based discharge. In spite of the relatively low spatial resolution of GRACE, and loss of information incurred during the process of integrating three different satellite products, the proposed methodology can be a practical tool to estimate the total discharge with reasonable accuracy, especially in a region with scarce hydrologic data.

  13. The Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Ore Reserve Estimation at Choghart Iron Ore Deposit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyyed Ali Nezamolhosseini

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Geo-statistical methods for reserve estimation are difficult to use when stationary conditions are not satisfied. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs provide an alternative to geo-statistical techniques while considerably reducing the processing time required for development and application. In this paper the ANNs was applied to the Choghart iron ore deposit in Yazd province of Iran. Initially, an optimum Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP was constructed to estimate the Fe grade within orebody using the whole ore data of the deposit. Sensitivity analysis was applied for a number of hidden layers and neurons, different types of activation functions and learning rules. Optimal architectures for iron grade estimation were 3-20-10-1. In order to improve the network performance, the deposit was divided into four homogenous zones. Subsequently, all sensitivity analyses were carried out on each zone.  Finally, a different optimum network was trained and Fe was estimated separately for each zone. Comparison of correlation coefficient (R and least mean squared error (MSE showed that the ANNs performed on four homogenous zones were far better than the nets applied to the overall ore body. Therefore, these optimized neural networks were used to estimate the distribution of iron grades and the iron resource in Choghart deposit. As a result of applying ANNs, the tonnage of ore for Choghart deposit is approximately estimated at 135.8 million tones with average grade of Fe at 56.14 percent. Results of reserve estimation using ANNs showed a good agreement with the geo-statistical methods applied to this ore body in another work.

  14. Mean total arsenic concentrations in chicken 1989-2000 and estimated exposures for consumers of chicken.

    OpenAIRE

    Lasky, Tamar; Sun, Wenyu; Kadry, Abdel; Hoffman, Michael K

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to estimate mean concentrations of total arsenic in chicken liver tissue and then estimate total and inorganic arsenic ingested by humans through chicken consumption. We used national monitoring data from the Food Safety and Inspection Service National Residue Program to estimate mean arsenic concentrations for 1994-2000. Incorporating assumptions about the concentrations of arsenic in liver and muscle tissues as well as the proportions of inorganic and organic a...

  15. US crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves, 1992 annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-10-18

    This report presents estimates of proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids as of December 31, 1992, as well as production volumes for the United States, and selected States and State subdivisions for the year 1992. Estimates are presented for the following four categories of natural gas: total gas (wet after lease separation), its two major components (nonassociated and associated-dissolved gas), and total dry gas (wet gas adjusted for the removal of liquids at natural gas processing plants). In addition, two components of natural gas liquids, lease condensate and natural gas plant liquids, have their reserves and production data presented. Also included is information on indicated additional crude oil reserves and crude oil, natural gas, and lease condensate reserves in nonproducing reservoirs. A discussion of notable oil and gas exploration and development activities during 1992 is provided.

  16. US crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves, 1992 annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    This report presents estimates of proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids as of December 31, 1992, as well as production volumes for the United States, and selected States and State subdivisions for the year 1992. Estimates are presented for the following four categories of natural gas: total gas (wet after lease separation), its two major components (nonassociated and associated-dissolved gas), and total dry gas (wet gas adjusted for the removal of liquids at natural gas processing plants). In addition, two components of natural gas liquids, lease condensate and natural gas plant liquids, have their reserves and production data presented. Also included is information on indicated additional crude oil reserves and crude oil, natural gas, and lease condensate reserves in nonproducing reservoirs. A discussion of notable oil and gas exploration and development activities during 1992 is provided

  17. Statistically extracted fundamental watershed variables for estimating the loads of total nitrogen in small streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kronholm, Scott C.; Capel, Paul D.; Terziotti, Silvia

    2016-01-01

    Accurate estimation of total nitrogen loads is essential for evaluating conditions in the aquatic environment. Extrapolation of estimates beyond measured streams will greatly expand our understanding of total nitrogen loading to streams. Recursive partitioning and random forest regression were used to assess 85 geospatial, environmental, and watershed variables across 636 small (monitoring may be beneficial.

  18. Estimating Quartz Reserves Using Compositional Kriging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Taboada

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to determine spatial distribution and volume of four commercial quartz grades, namely, silicon metal, ferrosilicon, aggregate, and kaolin (depending on content in impurities in a quartz seam. The chemical and mineralogical composition of the reserves in the seam were determined from samples collected from outcrops, blasting operations, and exploratory drilling, and compositional kriging was used to calculate the volume and distribution of the reserves. A more accurate knowledge of the deposit ensures better mine planning, leading to higher profitability and an improved relationship with the environment.

  19. Postoperative cognitive dysfunction and its relationship to cognitive reserve in elderly total joint replacement patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, J E; Mathias, J L; Kneebone, A C; Krishnan, J

    2017-06-01

    Whether total joint replacement (TJR) patients are susceptible to postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) remains unclear due to inconsistencies in research methodologies. Moreover, cognitive reserve may moderate the development of POCD after TJR, but has not been investigated in this context. The current study investigated POCD after TJR, and its relationship with cognitive reserve, using a more rigorous methodology than has previously been utilized. Fifty-three older adults (aged 50+) scheduled for TJR were assessed pre and post surgery (6 months). Forty-five healthy controls matched for age, gender, and premorbid IQ were re-assessed after an equivalent interval. Cognition, cognitive reserve, and physical and mental health were all measured. Standardized regression-based methods were used to assess cognitive changes, while controlling for the confounding effect of repeated cognitive testing. TJR patients only demonstrated a significant decline in Trail Making Test Part B (TMT B) performance, compared to controls. Cognitive reserve only predicted change in TMT B scores among a subset of TJR patients. Specifically, patients who showed the most improvement pre to post surgery had significantly higher reserve than those who showed the greatest decline. The current study provides limited evidence of POCD after TJR when examined using a rigorous methodology, which controlled for practice effects. Cognitive reserve only predicted performance within a subset of the TJR sample. However, the role of reserve in more cognitively compromised patients remains to be determined.

  20. Comparative study of the geostatistical ore reserve estimation method over the conventional methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Y.C.; Knudsen, H.P.

    1975-01-01

    Part I contains a comprehensive treatment of the comparative study of the geostatistical ore reserve estimation method over the conventional methods. The conventional methods chosen for comparison were: (a) the polygon method, (b) the inverse of the distance squared method, and (c) a method similar to (b) but allowing different weights in different directions. Briefly, the overall result from this comparative study is in favor of the use of geostatistics in most cases because the method has lived up to its theoretical claims. A good exposition on the theory of geostatistics, the adopted study procedures, conclusions and recommended future research are given in Part I. Part II of this report contains the results of the second and the third study objectives, which are to assess the potential benefits that can be derived by the introduction of the geostatistical method to the current state-of-the-art in uranium reserve estimation method and to be instrumental in generating the acceptance of the new method by practitioners through illustrative examples, assuming its superiority and practicality. These are given in the form of illustrative examples on the use of geostatistics and the accompanying computer program user's guide

  1. Estimating total evaporation at the field scale using the SEBS model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Estimating total evaporation at the field scale using the SEBS model and data infilling ... of two infilling techniques to create a daily satellite-derived ET time series. ... and produced R2 and RMSE values of 0.33 and 2.19 mm∙d-1, respectively, ...

  2. Estimation of total body water by bioelectrical impedance analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kushner, R.F.; Schoeller, D.A.

    1986-01-01

    Total body water (TBW) measured by bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) was directly compared with deuterium-isotope dilution in a total of 58 subjects. First, sex-specific and group equations were developed by multiple regression analysis in (10 each) obese and nonobese men and women. Height/resistive impedance was the most significant variable used to predict deuterium-dilution space (D2O-TBW) and, combined with weight, yielded R = 0.99 and SE of estimate = 1.75 L. Equations predicted D2O-TBW equally well for obese and nonobese subjects. Second, the equations were prospectively tested in a heterogeneous group of 6 males and 12 females. Sex-specific equations predicted D2O-TBW with good correlation coefficients (0.96 and 0.93), total error (2.34 and 2.89 L), and a small difference between mean predicted and measured D2O-TBW (-1.4 +/- 2.05 and -0.48 +/- 2.83 L). BIA predicts D2O-TBW more accurately than weight, height, and/or age. A larger population is required to validate the applicability of our equations

  3. Cognitive Reserve Scale and ageing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene León

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The construct of cognitive reserve attempts to explain why some individuals with brain impairment, and some people during normal ageing, can solve cognitive tasks better than expected. This study aimed to estimate cognitive reserve in a healthy sample of people aged 65 years and over, with special attention to its influence on cognitive performance. For this purpose, it used the Cognitive Reserve Scale (CRS and a neuropsychological battery that included tests of attention and memory. The results revealed that women obtained higher total CRS raw scores than men. Moreover, the CRS predicted the learning curve, short-term and long-term memory, but not attentional and working memory performance. Thus, the CRS offers a new proxy of cognitive reserve based on cognitively stimulating activities performed by healthy elderly people. Following an active lifestyle throughout life was associated with better intellectual performance and positive effects on relevant aspects of quality of life.

  4. Estimated Intakes and Sources of Total and Added Sugars in the Canadian Diet

    OpenAIRE

    Brisbois, Tristin D.; Marsden, Sandra L.; Anderson, G. Harvey; Sievenpiper, John L.

    2014-01-01

    National food supply data and dietary surveys are essential to estimate nutrient intakes and monitor trends, yet there are few published studies estimating added sugars consumption. The purpose of this report was to estimate and trend added sugars intakes and their contribution to total energy intake among Canadians by, first, using Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) nutrition survey data of intakes of sugars in foods and beverages, and second, using Statistics Canada availability data a...

  5. Recent revisions of phosphate rock reserves and resources: reassuring or misleading? An in-depth literature review of global estimates of phosphate rock reserves and resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edixhoven, J. D.; Gupta, J.; Savenije, H. H. G.

    2013-09-01

    Phosphate rock (PR) is a finite mineral indispensible for fertilizer production and a major pollutant. High grade PR is obtained from deposits which took millions of years to form and are gradually being depleted. Over the past three years, global PR reserves as reported by US Geological Survey (USGS) have seen a massive increase, from 16 000 Mt PR in 2010 to 65 000 Mt PR in 2011. The bulk of this four-fold increase is based on a 2010 report by International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC), which increased Moroccan reserves from 5700 Mt PR as reported by USGS, to 51 000 Mt PR, reported as upgraded ("beneficiated") concentrate. IFDC used a starkly simplified classification compared to the classification used by USGS and proposed that agreement should be reached on PR resource terminology which should be as simple as possible. The report has profoundly influenced the PR scarcity debate, shifting the emphasis from depletion to the pollution angle of the phosphate problem. Various analysts adopted the findings of IFDC and USGS, and argued that that following depletion of reserves, uneconomic deposits (resources and occurrences) will remain available which will extend the lifetime of available deposits to thousands of years. Given the near total dependence of food production on PR, data on PR deposits must be transparent, comparable, reliable and credible. Based on an in-depth literature review, we analyze (i) how IFDC's simplified terminology compares to international best practice in resource classification and whether it is likely to yield data that meets the abovementioned requirements; (ii) whether the difference between ore reserves and reserves as concentrate is sufficiently noted in the literature, and (iii) whether the IFDC report and its estimate of PR reserves and resources is reliable. We conclude that, while there is a global development toward common criteria in resource reporting, IFDC's definitions contravene this development and - due to their

  6. TOTAL INFRARED LUMINOSITY ESTIMATION OF RESOLVED AND UNRESOLVED GALAXIES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boquien, M.; Calzetti, D.; Bendo, G.; Dale, D.; Engelbracht, C.; Kennicutt, R.; Lee, J. C.; Van Zee, L.; Moustakas, J.

    2010-01-01

    The total infrared (TIR) luminosity from galaxies can be used to examine both star formation and dust physics. We provide here new relations to estimate the TIR luminosity from various Spitzer bands, in particular from the 8 μm and 24 μm bands. To do so, we use data for 45'' subregions within a subsample of nearby face-on spiral galaxies from the Spitzer Infrared Nearby Galaxies Survey (SINGS) that have known oxygen abundances as well as integrated galaxy data from the SINGS, the Local Volume Legacy survey (LVL), and Engelbracht et al. samples. Taking into account the oxygen abundances of the subregions, the star formation rate intensity, and the relative emission of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons at 8 μm, the warm dust at 24 μm, and the cold dust at 70 μm and 160 μm, we derive new relations to estimate the TIR luminosity from just one or two of the Spitzer bands. We also show that the metallicity and the star formation intensity must be taken into account when estimating the TIR luminosity from two wave bands, especially when data longward of 24 μm are not available.

  7. Estimation of total error in DWPF reported radionuclide inventories. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, T.B.

    1995-01-01

    The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) at the Savannah River Site is required to determine and report the radionuclide inventory of its glass product. For each macro-batch, the DWPF will report both the total amount (in curies) of each reportable radionuclide and the average concentration (in curies/gram of glass) of each reportable radionuclide. The DWPF is to provide the estimated error of these reported values of its radionuclide inventory as well. The objective of this document is to provide a framework for determining the estimated error in DWPF's reporting of these radionuclide inventories. This report investigates the impact of random errors due to measurement and sampling on the total amount of each reportable radionuclide in a given macro-batch. In addition, the impact of these measurement and sampling errors and process variation are evaluated to determine the uncertainty in the reported average concentrations of radionuclides in DWPF's filled canister inventory resulting from each macro-batch

  8. A new ore reserve estimation method, Yang Chizhong filtering and inferential measurement method, and its application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Jingqin.

    1989-01-01

    Yang Chizhong filtering and inferential measurement method is a new method used for variable statistics of ore deposits. In order to apply this theory to estimate the uranium ore reserves under the circumstances of regular or irregular prospecting grids, small ore bodies, less sampling points, and complex occurrence, the author has used this method to estimate the ore reserves in five ore bodies of two deposits and achieved satisfactory results. It is demonstrated that compared with the traditional block measurement method, this method is simple and clear in formula, convenient in application, rapid in calculation, accurate in results, less expensive, and high economic benefits. The procedure and experience in the application of this method and the preliminary evaluation of its results are mainly described

  9. Estimation of total bacteria by real-time PCR in patients with periodontal disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brajović, Gavrilo; Popović, Branka; Puletić, Miljan; Kostić, Marija; Milasin, Jelena

    2016-01-01

    Periodontal diseases are associated with the presence of elevated levels of bacteria within the gingival crevice. The aim of this study was to evaluate a total amount of bacteria in subgingival plaque samples in patients with a periodontal disease. A quantitative evaluation of total bacteria amount using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) was performed on 20 samples of patients with ulceronecrotic periodontitis and on 10 samples of healthy subjects. The estimation of total bacterial amount was based on gene copy number for 16S rRNA that was determined by comparing to Ct values/gene copy number of the standard curve. A statistically significant difference between average gene copy number of total bacteria in periodontal patients (2.55 x 10⁷) and healthy control (2.37 x 10⁶) was found (p = 0.01). Also, a trend of higher numbers of the gene copy in deeper periodontal lesions (> 7 mm) was confirmed by a positive value of coefficient of correlation (r = 0.073). The quantitative estimation of total bacteria based on gene copy number could be an important additional tool in diagnosing periodontitis.

  10. Estimating functional liver reserve following hepatic irradiation: Adaptive normal tissue response models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenmark, Matthew H.; Cao, Yue; Wang, Hesheng; Jackson, Andrew; Ben-Josef, Edgar; Ten Haken, Randall K.; Lawrence, Theodore S.; Feng, Mary

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To estimate the limit of functional liver reserve for safe application of hepatic irradiation using changes in indocyanine green, an established assay of liver function. Materials and methods: From 2005 to 2011, 60 patients undergoing hepatic irradiation were enrolled in a prospective study assessing the plasma retention fraction of indocyanine green at 15-min (ICG-R15) prior to, during (at 60% of planned dose), and after radiotherapy (RT). The limit of functional liver reserve was estimated from the damage fraction of functional liver (DFL) post-RT [1 − (ICG-R15 pre-RT /ICG-R15 post-RT )] where no toxicity was observed using a beta distribution function. Results: Of 48 evaluable patients, 3 (6%) developed RILD, all within 2.5 months of completing RT. The mean ICG-R15 for non-RILD patients pre-RT, during-RT and 1-month post-RT was 20.3%(SE 2.6), 22.0%(3.0), and 27.5%(2.8), and for RILD patients was 6.3%(4.3), 10.8%(2.7), and 47.6%(8.8). RILD was observed at post-RT damage fractions of ⩾78%. Both DFL assessed by during-RT ICG and MLD predicted for DFL post-RT (p < 0.0001). Limiting the post-RT DFL to 50%, predicted a 99% probability of a true complication rate <15%. Conclusion: The DFL as assessed by changes in ICG during treatment serves as an early indicator of a patient’s tolerance to hepatic irradiation

  11. Alberta's reserves 2004 and supply/demand outlook 2005-2014

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burrowes, A.; Marsh, R.; Ramdin, N.; Evans, C.; Kirsch, M.A.; Philp, L.; Fujda, M.; Stenson, J.; Sadler, K.; Sankey, G.; Hill, C.; Rahnama, F.; Habib, G.; MacGillivray, J.

    2005-01-01

    This document presents information on the state of reserves, supply, and demand for Alberta's energy resources including bitumen, crude oil, coalbed methane (CBM), conventional natural gas, natural gas liquids, sulphur, and coal. Estimates of initial reserves, remaining established reserves, and ultimate potential were also included, along with a 10-year supply and demand forecast for Alberta's energy resources. The document presents major forecast assumptions that influence Alberta's energy supply and demand. Some of the main variables affecting energy supply and demand include the global oil market, energy prices, Canadian economic performance and the economic outlook for Alberta. The development of Alberta's energy resources depends on reserve supply, costs of development, energy demands, conservation, and social, economic and environmental considerations. In 2004, raw bitumen production continued to grow and accounted for 69 per cent of Alberta's total crude oil and bitumen production. The value-added process of upgrading raw bitumen to synthetic crude oil was also expanded in 2004. Natural gas production from all sources in Alberta increased by 1 per cent compared with 2003. CBM development also increased greatly in 2004. Although it accounted for 80 per cent of the cumulative CBM production to date, it only contributed 0.5 per cent of the provincial total natural gas production. It is expected that CBM development will continue to increase in the coming years. For that reason, a separate estimate of CBM reserves was included. tabs., figs

  12. Efforts to Support Consumer Enrollment Decisions Using Total Cost Estimators: Lessons from the Affordable Care Act’s Marketplaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giovannelli, Justin; Curran, Emily

    2017-02-01

    Issue: Policymakers have sought to improve the shopping experience on the Affordable Care Act’s marketplaces by offering decision support tools that help consumers better understand and compare their health plan options. Cost estimators are one such tool. They are designed to provide consumers a personalized estimate of the total cost--premium, minus subsidy, plus cost-sharing--of their coverage options. Cost estimators were available in most states by the start of the fourth open enrollment period. Goal: To understand the experiences of marketplaces that offer a total cost estimator and the interests and concerns of policymakers from states that are not using them. Methods: Structured interviews with marketplace officials, consumer enrollment assisters, technology vendors, and subject matter experts; analysis of the total cost estimators available on the marketplaces as of October 2016. Key findings and conclusions: Informants strongly supported marketplace adoption of a total cost estimator. Marketplaces that offer an estimator faced a range of design choices and varied significantly in their approaches to resolving them. Interviews suggested a clear need for additional consumer testing and data analysis of tool usage and for sustained outreach to enrollment assisters to encourage greater use of the estimators.

  13. Estimating Total Discharge in the Yangtze River Basin Using Satellite-Based Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel A. Andam‑Akorful

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The measurement of total basin discharge along coastal regions is necessary for understanding the hydrological and oceanographic issues related to the water and energy cycles. However, only the observed streamflow (gauge-based observation is used to estimate the total fluxes from the river basin to the ocean, neglecting the portion of discharge that infiltrates to underground and directly discharges into the ocean. Hence, the aim of this study is to assess the total discharge of the Yangtze River (Chang Jiang basin. In this study, we explore the potential response of total discharge to changes in precipitation (from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission—TRMM, evaporation (from four versions of the Global Land Data Assimilation—GLDAS, namely, CLM, Mosaic, Noah and VIC, and water-storage changes (from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment—GRACE by using the terrestrial water budget method. This method has been validated by comparison with the observed streamflow, and shows an agreement with a root mean square error (RMSE of 14.30 mm/month for GRACE-based discharge and 20.98 mm/month for that derived from precipitation minus evaporation (P − E. This improvement of approximately 32% indicates that monthly terrestrial water-storage changes, as estimated by GRACE, cannot be considered negligible over Yangtze basin. The results for the proposed method are more accurate than the results previously reported in the literature.

  14. Estimation of the total absorbed dose by quartz in retrospective conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correcher, V.; Delgado, A.

    2003-01-01

    The estimation of the total absorbed dose is of great interest in areas affected by a radiological accident when no conventional dosimetric systems are available. This paper reports about the usual methodology employed in dose reconstruction from the thermoluminescence (TL) properties of natural quartz, extracted from selected ceramic materials (12 bricks) picked up in the Chernobyl area. It has been possible to evaluate doses under 50mGy after more than 11 years later since the radiological accident happened. The main advance of this fact is the reduction of the commonly accepted limit dose estimation more than 20 times employing luminescence methods. (Author) 11 refs

  15. Development of world coal reserves, their registration and their utilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bachmann, H

    1979-10-01

    This paper examines statistics on world coal production and world coal reserves with figures from 1860 to 1974 provided in tables and graphs. Eighty percent of the total world coal reserves (92% of world brown coal reserves) lie in the USA and USSR. The recent increase in total coal reserve estimates is due to exploration in western USA and in the USSR east of the Urals. Depth and thickness of the world's coal seams are shown in graphs and variations in coal quality are discussed. Problems associated with the anticipated substantial increase in coal production up to the year 2000 are considered. Encouraging higher coal production is the successful development of highly mechanized underground mining techniques and highly productive heavy surface mining equipment which allows excavation at increased depths. Surface mining is expected to make up 50% of total world mining operations in the near future. More complete deposit exploitation also contributes to higher coal production. Low international ship freight rates would facilitate future world coal trade. Obstacles are seen as: high, long term investments due to the fact that coal reserves lie far from populated and industrialized areas; opening new mines; transportation costs and infrastructure development.

  16. Improved estimates of filtered total mercury loadings and total mercury concentrations of solids from potential sources to Sinclair Inlet, Kitsap County, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulson, Anthony J.; Conn, Kathleen E.; DeWild, John F.

    2013-01-01

    Previous investigations examined sources and sinks of mercury to Sinclair Inlet based on historic and new data. This included an evaluation of mercury concentrations from various sources and mercury loadings from industrial discharges and groundwater flowing from the Bremerton naval complex to Sinclair Inlet. This report provides new data from four potential sources of mercury to Sinclair Inlet: (1) filtered and particulate total mercury concentrations of creek water during the wet season, (2) filtered and particulate total mercury releases from the Navy steam plant following changes in the water softening process and discharge operations, (3) release of mercury from soils to groundwater in two landfill areas at the Bremerton naval complex, and (4) total mercury concentrations of solids in dry dock sumps that were not affected by bias from sequential sampling. The previous estimate of the loading of filtered total mercury from Sinclair Inlet creeks was based solely on dry season samples. Concentrations of filtered total mercury in creek samples collected during wet weather were significantly higher than dry weather concentrations, which increased the estimated loading of filtered total mercury from creek basins from 27.1 to 78.1 grams per year. Changes in the concentrations and loading of filtered and particulate total mercury in the effluent of the steam plant were investigated after the water softening process was changed from ion-exchange to reverse osmosis and the discharge of stack blow-down wash began to be diverted to the municipal water-treatment plant. These changes reduced the concentrations of filtered and particulate total mercury from the steam plant of the Bremerton naval complex, which resulted in reduced loadings of filtered total mercury from 5.9 to 0.15 grams per year. Previous investigations identified three fill areas on the Bremerton naval complex, of which the western fill area is thought to be the largest source of mercury on the base

  17. ART Or AGR: Deciphering Which Reserve Program is Best Suited for Today’s Total Force Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-01

    AIR COMMAND AND STAFF COLLEGE AIR UNIVERSITY ART OR AGR: DECIPHERING WHICH RESERVE PROGRAM IS BEST SUITED FOR TODAY’S TOTAL FORCE STRUCTURE...4 ART Program...time workforce, which are the ART and AGR programs, by comparing each and highlighting the differences, advantages and disadvantages they present to

  18. Estimation of total amounts of anthropogenic radionuclides in the Japan Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ito, Toshimichi; Otosaka, Shigeyoshi; Kawamura, Hideyuki

    2007-01-01

    We estimated the total amounts of anthropogenic radionuclides, consisting of 90 Sr, 137 Cs, and 239+240 Pu, in the Japan Sea for the first time based on experimental data on their concentrations in seawater and seabed sediment. The radionuclide inventories in seawater and seabed sediment at each sampling site varied depending on the water depth, with total inventories for 90 Sr, 137 Cs, and 239+240 Pu in the range of 0.52-2.8 kBq m -2 , 0.64-4.1 kBq m -2 , and 27-122 Bq m -2 , respectively. Based on the relationship between the inventories and the water depths, the total amounts in the Japan Sea were estimated to be about 1.2±0.4 PBq for 90 Sr, 1.8±0.7 PBq for 137 Cs, and 69±14 TBq for 239+240 Pu, respectively; the amount ratio, 90 Sr: 137 Cs: 239+240 Pu, was 1.0:1.6:0.059. The amounts of 90 Sr and 137 Cs in the Japan Sea were in balance with those supplied from global fallout, whereas the amount of 239+240 Pu exceeded that supplied by fallout by nearly 40%. These results suggest a preferential accumulation of the plutonium isotopes. The data used in this study were obtained through a wide-area research project, named the 'Japan Sea expeditions (phase I),' covering the Japanese and Russian exclusive economic zones. (author)

  19. Estimating the total leaf area of the green dwarf coconut tree (Cocos nucifera L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sousa Elias Fernandes de

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Leaf area has significant effect on tree transpiration, and its measurement is important to many study areas. This work aimed at developing a non-destructive, practical, and empirical method to estimate the total leaf area of green dwarf coconut palms (Cocos nucifera L. in plantations located at the northern region of Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil. A mathematical model was developed to estimate total leaf area values (TLA as function of the average lengths of the last three leaf raquis (LR3, and of the number of leaves in the canopy (NL. The model has satisfactory degree of accuracy for agricultural engineering purposes.

  20. Indicators for estimating the total apparent digestibility in horses Indicadores para estimativa da digestibilidade aparente total em equinos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Ariboni Brandi

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study to evaluate various indicators to estimate the total nutrient digestibility in horses. We used four adult mares, breed, grouped in a 4 x 4 Latin square balanced fed diets containing equal parts of hay Tifton 85 (Cynodon sp and concentrated experimental containing corn subjected to four processes: a diet containing ground corn ; flaked corn diet 2, 3 rolled corn, and 4 extruded corn. The weighting coefficient of digestibility of nutrients by the indicators was done through the bias. The accuracy and precision were determined by comparing the predicted and observed data, and the robustness of the biases by comparing with other factors studied. The chromic oxide methods showed similar values of apparent digestibility of nutrients when compared to the total collection method. We observed higher accuracy for the acid detergent lignin as compared to the other indicators tested. However, the acid detergent lignin underestimated the digestibility of nutrients when compared to the total collection. The acid detergent insoluble ash overestimated the digestibility of nutrients when compared to the total collection. The chromic oxide is presented as a better indicator for estimating the total apparent digestibility in horses due to its higher accuracy among the markers evaluated.Objetivou-se neste estudo avaliar diferentes indicadores para estimativa das digestibilidades aparente total em equinos. Foram utilizadas quatro éguas adultas, sem raça definida, agrupadas em um quadrado latino 4 x 4 balanceado, alimentadas com dietas que continham partes iguais de feno da gramínea Tifton 85 (Cynodon sp e concentrado experimental que continha milho submetido a quatro processamentos: dieta um milho triturado; dieta dois milho floculado; dieta três milho laminado e dieta quatro milho extrusado. A ponderação dos coeficientes de digestibilidade dos nutrientes pelos indicadores foi efetuada por meio do viés. A acurácia e a precis

  1. Total decay heat estimates in a proto-type fast reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sridharan, M.S.

    2003-01-01

    Full text: In this paper, total decay heat values generated in a proto-type fast reactor are estimated. These values are compared with those of certain fast reactors. Simple analytical fits are also obtained for these values which can serve as a handy and convenient tool in engineering design studies. These decay heat values taken as their ratio to the nominal operating power are, in general, applicable to any typical plutonium based fast reactor and are useful inputs to the design of decay-heat removal systems

  2. Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of stream total phosphate concentration by soft computing techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Fi-John; Chen, Pin-An; Chang, Li-Chiu; Tsai, Yu-Hsuan

    2016-08-15

    This study attempts to model the spatio-temporal dynamics of total phosphate (TP) concentrations along a river for effective hydro-environmental management. We propose a systematical modeling scheme (SMS), which is an ingenious modeling process equipped with a dynamic neural network and three refined statistical methods, for reliably predicting the TP concentrations along a river simultaneously. Two different types of artificial neural network (BPNN-static neural network; NARX network-dynamic neural network) are constructed in modeling the dynamic system. The Dahan River in Taiwan is used as a study case, where ten-year seasonal water quality data collected at seven monitoring stations along the river are used for model training and validation. Results demonstrate that the NARX network can suitably capture the important dynamic features and remarkably outperforms the BPNN model, and the SMS can effectively identify key input factors, suitably overcome data scarcity, significantly increase model reliability, satisfactorily estimate site-specific TP concentration at seven monitoring stations simultaneously, and adequately reconstruct seasonal TP data into a monthly scale. The proposed SMS can reliably model the dynamic spatio-temporal water pollution variation in a river system for missing, hazardous or costly data of interest. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Remote sensing estimation of the total phosphorus concentration in a large lake using band combinations and regional multivariate statistical modeling techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Yongnian; Gao, Junfeng; Yin, Hongbin; Liu, Chuansheng; Xia, Ting; Wang, Jing; Huang, Qi

    2015-03-15

    Remote sensing has been widely used for ater quality monitoring, but most of these monitoring studies have only focused on a few water quality variables, such as chlorophyll-a, turbidity, and total suspended solids, which have typically been considered optically active variables. Remote sensing presents a challenge in estimating the phosphorus concentration in water. The total phosphorus (TP) in lakes has been estimated from remotely sensed observations, primarily using the simple individual band ratio or their natural logarithm and the statistical regression method based on the field TP data and the spectral reflectance. In this study, we investigated the possibility of establishing a spatial modeling scheme to estimate the TP concentration of a large lake from multi-spectral satellite imagery using band combinations and regional multivariate statistical modeling techniques, and we tested the applicability of the spatial modeling scheme. The results showed that HJ-1A CCD multi-spectral satellite imagery can be used to estimate the TP concentration in a lake. The correlation and regression analysis showed a highly significant positive relationship between the TP concentration and certain remotely sensed combination variables. The proposed modeling scheme had a higher accuracy for the TP concentration estimation in the large lake compared with the traditional individual band ratio method and the whole-lake scale regression-modeling scheme. The TP concentration values showed a clear spatial variability and were high in western Lake Chaohu and relatively low in eastern Lake Chaohu. The northernmost portion, the northeastern coastal zone and the southeastern portion of western Lake Chaohu had the highest TP concentrations, and the other regions had the lowest TP concentration values, except for the coastal zone of eastern Lake Chaohu. These results strongly suggested that the proposed modeling scheme, i.e., the band combinations and the regional multivariate

  4. Nuclear-fuel-cycle education: Module 2. Exploration, reserve estimation, mining, milling, conversion, and properties of uranium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brookins, D.G.

    1981-12-01

    In this module geological and geochemical data pertinent to locating, mining, and milling of uranium are examined. Chapters are devoted to: uranium source characteristics; uranium ore exploration methods; uranium reserve estimation for sandstone deposits; mining; milling; conversion processes for uranium; and properties of uranium, thorium, plutonium and their oxides and carbides

  5. Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

    1990-01-01

    The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous...... abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...

  6. Stereological estimation of total cell numbers in the young human utricular macula

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Severinsen, Stig Avall; Sørensen, Mads Sølvsten; Kirkegaard, Mette

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Conclusion: There is no change in the total cell population and hair cell:supporting cell ratio in the human utricular macula from gestational week 16 and onwards, whereas the lower hair cell:supporting cell ratio and lower total number of cells in the youngest specimens indicate...... that the utricle is still differentiating and adding new cells at the 10th to 12th gestational week. Objectives: Archival temporal bones were investigated to quantify cell numbers in the utricular macula in fetuses and children. Methods: The age of the subjects ranged from gestational week 10 to 15 years....... The optical fractionator was used to estimate the total number of cells in the utricular macula. Results: The total cell number was found to be 143 000 in subjects older than gestational week 16. The number of hair cells and supporting cells did not change between the 16th gestational week and 15 years...

  7. Near-real-time Estimation and Forecast of Total Precipitable Water in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartholy, J.; Kern, A.; Barcza, Z.; Pongracz, R.; Ihasz, I.; Kovacs, R.; Ferencz, C.

    2013-12-01

    Information about the amount and spatial distribution of atmospheric water vapor (or total precipitable water) is essential for understanding weather and the environment including the greenhouse effect, the climate system with its feedbacks and the hydrological cycle. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models need accurate estimations of water vapor content to provide realistic forecasts including representation of clouds and precipitation. In the present study we introduce our research activity for the estimation and forecast of atmospheric water vapor in Central Europe using both observations and models. The Eötvös Loránd University (Hungary) operates a polar orbiting satellite receiving station in Budapest since 2002. This station receives Earth observation data from polar orbiting satellites including MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Direct Broadcast (DB) data stream from satellites Terra and Aqua. The received DB MODIS data are automatically processed using freely distributed software packages. Using the IMAPP Level2 software total precipitable water is calculated operationally using two different methods. Quality of the TPW estimations is a crucial question for further application of the results, thus validation of the remotely sensed total precipitable water fields is presented using radiosonde data. In a current research project in Hungary we aim to compare different estimations of atmospheric water vapor content. Within the frame of the project we use a NWP model (DBCRAS; Direct Broadcast CIMSS Regional Assimilation System numerical weather prediction software developed by the University of Wisconsin, Madison) to forecast TPW. DBCRAS uses near real time Level2 products from the MODIS data processing chain. From the wide range of the derived Level2 products the MODIS TPW parameter found within the so-called mod07 results (Atmospheric Profiles Product) and the cloud top pressure and cloud effective emissivity parameters from the so

  8. Coal geology and assessment of coal resources and reserves in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming and Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luppens, James A.; Scott, David C.

    2015-01-01

    This report presents the final results of the first assessment of both coal resources and reserves for all significant coal beds in the entire Powder River Basin, northeastern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. The basin covers about 19,500 square miles, exclusive of the part of the basin within the Crow and Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservations in Montana. The Powder River Basin, which contains the largest resources of low-sulfur, low-ash, subbituminous coal in the United States, is the single most important coal basin in the United States. The U.S. Geological Survey used a geology-based assessment methodology to estimate an original coal resource of about 1.16 trillion short tons for 47 coal beds in the Powder River Basin; in-place (remaining) resources are about 1.15 trillion short tons. This is the first time that all beds were mapped individually over the entire basin. A total of 162 billion short tons of recoverable coal resources (coal reserve base) are estimated at a 10:1 stripping ratio or less. An estimated 25 billion short tons of that coal reserve base met the definition of reserves, which are resources that can be economically produced at or below the current sales price at the time of the evaluation. The total underground coal resource in coal beds 10–20 feet thick is estimated at 304 billion short tons.

  9. Estimates of the Tempo-adjusted Total Fertility Rate in Western and Eastern Germany, 1955-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Luy

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In this article we present estimates of the tempo-adjusted total fertility rate in Western and Eastern Germany from 1955 to 2008. Tempo adjustment of the total fertility rate (TFR requires data on the annual number of births by parity and age of the mother. Since official statistics do not provide such data for West Germany as well as Eastern Germany from 1990 on we used alternative data sources which include these specific characteristics. The combined picture of conventional TFR and tempo-adjusted TFR* provides interesting information about the trends in period fertility in Western and Eastern Germany, above all with regard to the differences between the two regions and the enormous extent of tempo effects in Eastern Germany during the 1990s. Compared to corresponding data for populations from other countries, our estimates of the tempo-adjusted TFR* for Eastern and Western Germany show plausible trends. Nevertheless, it is important to note that the estimates of the tempo-adjusted total fertility rate presented in this paper should not be seen as being on the level of or equivalent to official statistics since they are based on different kinds of data with different degrees of quality.

  10. Estimation of Total Yearly CO2 Emissions by Wildfires in Mexico during the Period 1999–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flor Bautista Vicente

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The phenomenon of wildfires became a global environmental problem which demands estimations of their CO2 emissions. Wildfires have deteriorated the air quality increasingly. Using available information on documented wildfires and a data set of satellite detected hot spots, total yearly emissions of CO2 in Mexico were estimated for the period 1999–2010. A map of the main vegetation groups was used to calculate total areas for every vegetation type. The yearly number of hot spots per vegetation type was calculated. Estimates of emitted CO2 in a wildfire were then accomplished by considering parameters such as: forest fuel load, vegetation type, burning efficiency, and mean burned area. The number of wildfires and total affected areas showed an annual variability. The yearly mean of affected area by a single wildfire varied between 0.2 and 0.3 km2. The total affected area during the period 1999 to 2010 was 86800 km2 which corresponds to 4.3% of the Mexican territory. Total CO2 emissions were approximately 112 Tg. The most affected vegetation types were forest and rainforest.

  11. Chicle harvesting and extractive reserves in the Maya Biosphere b: Reserve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dugelby, B.L.

    1995-12-31

    Chicle latex has been extracted from the forests of northern Guatemala for over 100 years and is a key element in the extractive reserve component of the Maya Biosphere Reserve. The carrying capacity of the reserve for chicle extraction can be estimated from a model incorporating ecological data (such as latex yields per tree and population structure of chicle trees, Manilkara zapota, Sapot.) with socio-ecological and political information concerning camp and chicle resource availability, harvester tapping behavior, and historical and present-day institutional organization. I estimate that chicle harvestors currently utilize and area larger than the multiple use zone of the reserve in a unsustainable manner. Simple reduction of harvestors numbers will not ensure sustainability; institutional reforms are also in order. Extractive reserves can play an important role in preserving tropical forests. However, their effectiveness is highly dependent on prevailing ecological, socio-economic, and political conditions. Wise planning and management of extractive reserves demands an understanding of the system`s carrying capacity. In addition, a strong institutional foundation is necessary to assure effective monitoring and enforcement of harvesting regulations.

  12. Natural gas: reserves keep ahead of production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hough, G V

    1983-08-01

    World production of natural gas in 1982 fell only 1.6% below 1981 levels, while proven recoverable reserves were up by 3.6% for a total of 3.279 quadrillion CF, which is 32.4% higher than had been estimated in 1978. Gas consumption, however, has experienced greater changes, with most of the industrialized countries (except for Japan) reporting declines in gas demand resulting from falling oil prices, reduced energy demand, and a slack world economy. Although gas seems to be holding its own in energy markets, further progress will not be easy to achieve.

  13. Global CO2 fluxes estimated from GOSAT retrievals of total column CO2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Basu

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available We present one of the first estimates of the global distribution of CO2 surface fluxes using total column CO2 measurements retrieved by the SRON-KIT RemoTeC algorithm from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT. We derive optimized fluxes from June 2009 to December 2010. We estimate fluxes from surface CO2 measurements to use as baselines for comparing GOSAT data-derived fluxes. Assimilating only GOSAT data, we can reproduce the observed CO2 time series at surface and TCCON sites in the tropics and the northern extra-tropics. In contrast, in the southern extra-tropics GOSAT XCO2 leads to enhanced seasonal cycle amplitudes compared to independent measurements, and we identify it as the result of a land–sea bias in our GOSAT XCO2 retrievals. A bias correction in the form of a global offset between GOSAT land and sea pixels in a joint inversion of satellite and surface measurements of CO2 yields plausible global flux estimates which are more tightly constrained than in an inversion using surface CO2 data alone. We show that assimilating the bias-corrected GOSAT data on top of surface CO2 data (a reduces the estimated global land sink of CO2, and (b shifts the terrestrial net uptake of carbon from the tropics to the extra-tropics. It is concluded that while GOSAT total column CO2 provide useful constraints for source–sink inversions, small spatiotemporal biases – beyond what can be detected using current validation techniques – have serious consequences for optimized fluxes, even aggregated over continental scales.

  14. Preliminary Results of Clover and Grass Coverage and Total Dry Matter Estimation in Clover-Grass Crops Using Image Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders K. Mortensen

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The clover-grass ratio is an important factor in composing feed ratios for livestock. Cameras in the field allow the user to estimate the clover-grass ratio using image analysis; however, current methods assume the total dry matter is known. This paper presents the preliminary results of an image analysis method for non-destructively estimating the total dry matter of clover-grass. The presented method includes three steps: (1 classification of image illumination using a histogram of the difference in excess green and excess red; (2 segmentation of clover and grass using edge detection and morphology; and (3 estimation of total dry matter using grass coverage derived from the segmentation and climate parameters. The method was developed and evaluated on images captured in a clover-grass plot experiment during the spring growing season. The preliminary results are promising and show a high correlation between the image-based total dry matter estimate and the harvested dry matter ( R 2 = 0.93 with an RMSE of 210 kg ha − 1 .

  15. Empirical Estimation of Total Nitrogen and Total Phosphorus Concentration of Urban Water Bodies in China Using High Resolution IKONOS Multispectral Imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiaming Liu

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Measuring total nitrogen (TN and total phosphorus (TP is important in managing heavy polluted urban waters in China. This study uses high spatial resolution IKONOS imagery with four multispectral bands, which roughly correspond to Landsat/TM bands 1–4, to determine TN and TP in small urban rivers and lakes in China. By using Lake Cihu and the lower reaches of Wen-Rui Tang (WRT River as examples, this paper develops both multiple linear regressions (MLR and artificial neural network (ANN models to estimate TN and TP concentrations from high spatial resolution remote sensing imagery and in situ water samples collected concurrently with overpassing satellite. The measured and estimated values of both MLR and ANN models are in good agreement (R2 > 0.85 and RMSE < 2.50. The empirical equations selected by MLR are more straightforward, whereas the estimated accuracy using ANN model is better (R2 > 0.86 and RMSE < 0.89. Results validate the potential of using high resolution IKONOS multispectral imagery to study the chemical states of small-sized urban water bodies. The spatial distribution maps of TN and TP concentrations generated by the ANN model can inform the decision makers of variations in water quality in Lake Cihu and lower reaches of WRT River. The approaches and equations developed in this study could be applied to other urban water bodies for water quality monitoring.

  16. Should total landings be used to correct estimated catch in numbers or mean-weight-at-age?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lewy, Peter; Lassen, H.

    1997-01-01

    Many ICES fish stock assessment working groups have practised Sum Of Products, SOP, correction. This correction stems from a comparison of total weights of the known landings and the SOP over age of catch in number and mean weight-at-age, which ideally should be identical. In case of SOP...... discrepancies some countries correct catch in numbers while others correct mean weight-at-age by a common factor, the ratio between landing and SOP. The paper shows that for three sampling schemes the SOP corrections are statistically incorrect and should not be made since the SOP is an unbiased estimate...... of the total landings. Calculation of the bias of estimated catch in numbers and mean weight-at-age shows that SOP corrections of either of these estimates may increase the bias. Furthermore, for five demersal and one pelagic North Sea species it is shown that SOP discrepancies greater than 2% from...

  17. Lithium reserves and resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, R.K.

    1978-01-01

    As a result of accelerating research efforts in the fields of secondary batteries and thermonuclear power generation, concern has been expressed in certain quarters regarding the availability, in sufficient quantities, of lithium. As part of a recent study by the National Research Council on behalf of the Energy Research and Development Administration, a subpanel was formed to consider the outlook for lithium. Principal areas of concern were reserves, resources and the 'surplus' available for energy applications after allowing for the growth in current lithium applications. Reserves and resources were categorized into four classes ranging from fully proved reserves to resources which are probably dependent upon the marketing of co-products to become economically attractive. Because of the proprietary nature of data on beneficiation and processing recoveries, the tonnages of available lithium are expressed in terms of plant feed. However, highly conservative assumptions have been made concerning mining recoveries and these go a considerable way to accounting for total losses. Western World reserves and resources of all classes are estimated at 10.6 million tonnes Li of which 3.5 million tonnes Li are located in the United States. Current United States capacity, virtually equivalent to Western World capacity, is 4700 tonnes Li and production in 1976 approximated to 3500 tonnes Li. Production for current applications is expected to grow to approx. 10,000 tonnes in year 2000 and 13,000 tonnes a decade later. The massive excess of reserves and resources over that necessary to support conventional requirements has limited the amount of justifiable exploration expenditures; on the last occasion, there was a a major increase in demand (by the USAEA) reserves and capacity were increased rapidly. There are no foreseeable reasons why this shouldn't happen again when the need is clear. (author)

  18. Estimation of total Effort and Effort Elapsed in Each Step of Software Development Using Optimal Bayesian Belief Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Zare Baghiabad

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Accuracy in estimating the needed effort for software development caused software effort estimation to be a challenging issue. Beside estimation of total effort, determining the effort elapsed in each software development step is very important because any mistakes in enterprise resource planning can lead to project failure. In this paper, a Bayesian belief network was proposed based on effective components and software development process. In this model, the feedback loops are considered between development steps provided that the return rates are different for each project. Different return rates help us determine the percentages of the elapsed effort in each software development step, distinctively. Moreover, the error measurement resulted from optimized effort estimation and the optimal coefficients to modify the model are sought. The results of the comparison between the proposed model and other models showed that the model has the capability to highly accurately estimate the total effort (with the marginal error of about 0.114 and to estimate the effort elapsed in each software development step.

  19. Total Blood Loss After Transfemoral Amputations Is Twice the Intraoperative Loss

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wied, Christian; Tengberg, Peter T; Kristensen, Morten T

    2017-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Underestimation of the actual blood loss in patients undergoing nontraumatic transfemoral amputation (TFA) can impact negatively on outcome in these often frail patients, with very limited physiological reserves. The primary aim of this study is to estimate the total blood loss (TBL...

  20. Estimation of the total number of mast cells in the human umbilical cord. A methodological study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engberg Damsgaard, T M; Windelborg Nielsen, B; Sørensen, Flemming Brandt

    1992-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to estimate the total number of mast cells in the human umbilical cord. Using 50 microns-thick paraffin sections, made from a systematic random sample of umbilical cord, the total number of mast cells per cord was estimated using a combination of the optical...... disector and fractionated sampling. The mast cell of the human umbilical cord was found in Wharton's jelly, most frequently in close proximity to the three blood vessels. No consistent pattern of variation in mast cell numbers from the fetal end of the umbilical cord towards the placenta was seen....... The total number of mast cells found in the umbilical cord was 5,200,000 (median), range 2,800,000-16,800,000 (n = 7), that is 156,000 mast cells per gram umbilical cord (median), range 48,000-267,000. Thus, the umbilical cord constitutes an adequate source of mast cells for further investigation...

  1. Analysis of digital subtraction angiography for estimating flow reserve in critical coronary artery stenosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotoku, Shinya; Matsuzaki, Masunori; Otani, Nozomi

    1988-01-01

    To assess the accuracy of digital subtraction angiography in evaluating coronary flow reserve in cases with critical coronary artery stenosis, time-density curves were obtained from digital subtraction coronary angiograms in the myocardial region of interest. Time to peak contrast (TPC) and time constant of the washout exponential curve (T) were measured in 14 patients with stable effort angina pectoris and critical one vessel lesion before and after percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA). All patients had normal left ventricular ejection fraction (59±7%) and 201 Tl myocardial images at rest. The values of TPC and T were significantly shortened from 5.4±1.3 to 4.5±1.0 sec (p<0.02) and from 10.9±3.8 to 5.3±1.3 sec (p<0.001) after PTCA, respectively. However, in 9 patients TPC values were approximately the same before and after PTCA. In five experimental dogs with critical circumflex coronary artery stenosis, coronary flow (CF; Doppler flowmeter) and systolic thickening of the posterior wall (by sonomicrometry) at rest did not differ from those of the controls. However, contrast media-induced reactive hyperemia was markedly attenuated, accompanied by a significant increase in T (7.7±4.5 vs 15.8±10.9 sec, p<0.01) and totally unchanged TPC (both 6.8 sec). With simultaneous tracings of CF and time-density curves, TPC and washout phases corresponded with contrast-induced transient CF reduction and hyperemic phases, respectively. We concluded that T may be more sensitive for estimating CF maintained nearly normal, e.g., in patients with stable effort angina pectoris having normal left ventricular wall motion at rest. (author)

  2. Determination of oil and gas reserves. 2. ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aguilera, R.; MacKay, V.

    2004-01-01

    This book was prepared by more than 40 contributing authors with expertise in a wide range of topics related to oil and gas reserves. It represents a collaborative effort to find definitions and guidelines for the classification of reserves that is acceptable to the oil industry, evaluators, oil and gas companies, financial agencies, securities commissions and government departments. This second edition is an update of the original work that was published in 1994 which compares estimates of reserves and their classification. The new edition includes changes that have occurred in the past 10 years and expands on the processes that are used to estimate reserves. New techniques for assessing risk were also included. The book is divided into four parts entitled: (1) definitions and guidelines for estimating and classifying oil and gas resources and reserves, (2) determination of in-place resources, (3) estimation of recovery factors and forecasting of recoverable hydrocarbons, and (4) prices, economics and markets. The second edition includes new sections dealing with geostatistics, natural gas balance calculations, reserves estimates in naturally fractured reservoirs, and new developments in estimating recovery factors through enhanced recovery methods such as horizontal drilling. The objective was to develop a reference that is of great value to geologists, engineers and technical persons involved in estimating reserves. refs., tabs., figs

  3. Gis Approach to Estimation of the Total Phosphorous Transfer in the Pilica River Lowland Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magnuszewski Artur

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the Pilica River catchment (central Poland is analyzed with a focus on understanding the total phosphorous transfer along the river system which also contains the large artificial Sulejów Reservoir. The paper presents a GIS method for estimating the total phosphorous (TP load from proxy data representing sub-catchment land use and census data. The modelled load of TP is compared to the actual transfer of TP in the Pilica River system. The results shows that the metrics of connectivity between river system and dwelling areas as well as settlement density in the sub-catchments are useful predictors of the total phosphorous load. The presence of a large reservoir in the middle course of the river can disrupt nutrient transport along a river continuum by trapping and retaining suspended sediment and its associated TP load. Analysis of the indirect estimation of TP loads with the GIS analysis can be useful for identifying beneficial reservoir locations in a catchment. The study has shown that the Sulejów Reservoir has been located in a subcatchment with a largest load of the TP, and this feature helps determine the problem of reservoir eutrphication

  4. Total Body Capacitance for Estimating Human Basal Metabolic Rate in an Egyptian Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. Abdel-Mageed, Samir; I. Mohamed, Ehab

    2016-01-01

    Determining basal metabolic rate (BMR) is important for estimating total energy needs in the human being yet, concerns have been raised regarding the suitability of sex-specific equations based on age and weight for its calculation on an individual or population basis. It has been shown that body cell mass (BCM) is the body compartment responsible for BMR. The objectives of this study were to investigate the relationship between total body capacitance (TBC), which is considered as an expression for BCM, and BMR and to develop a formula for calculating BMR in comparison with widely used equations. Fifty healthy nonsmoking male volunteers [mean age (± SD): 24.93 ± 4.15 year and body mass index (BMI): 25.63 ± 3.59 kg/m2] and an equal number of healthy nonsmoking females matched for age and BMI were recruited for the study. TBC and BMR were measured for all participants using octopolar bioelectric impedance analysis and indirect calorimetry techniques, respectively. A significant regressing equation based on the covariates: sex, weight, and TBC for estimating BMR was derived (R=0.96, SEE=48.59 kcal, and P<0.0001), which will be useful for nutritional and health status assessment for both individuals and populations. PMID:27127453

  5. Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yingbin; Jiao, Yan

    2015-05-01

    The instantaneous total mortality rate ( Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis, abundance and catch forecast, and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method, the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time, but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant, and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z, and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates (the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore, the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them, but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997, and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.

  6. Prediction equation for estimating total daily energy requirements of special operations personnel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barringer, N D; Pasiakos, S M; McClung, H L; Crombie, A P; Margolis, L M

    2018-01-01

    Special Operations Forces (SOF) engage in a variety of military tasks with many producing high energy expenditures, leading to undesired energy deficits and loss of body mass. Therefore, the ability to accurately estimate daily energy requirements would be useful for accurate logistical planning. Generate a predictive equation estimating energy requirements of SOF. Retrospective analysis of data collected from SOF personnel engaged in 12 different SOF training scenarios. Energy expenditure and total body water were determined using the doubly-labeled water technique. Physical activity level was determined as daily energy expenditure divided by resting metabolic rate. Physical activity level was broken into quartiles (0 = mission prep, 1 = common warrior tasks, 2 = battle drills, 3 = specialized intense activity) to generate a physical activity factor (PAF). Regression analysis was used to construct two predictive equations (Model A; body mass and PAF, Model B; fat-free mass and PAF) estimating daily energy expenditures. Average measured energy expenditure during SOF training was 4468 (range: 3700 to 6300) Kcal·d- 1 . Regression analysis revealed that physical activity level ( r  = 0.91; P  plan appropriate feeding regimens to meet SOF nutritional requirements across their mission profile.

  7. Hydrocarbon Reserves: Abundance or Scarcity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    IFP and the OAPEC jointly organize a regular international seminar dealing with world oil-related problems appearing in the news. For the first time, this seminar has been opened to oil and gas company specialists, service companies, research centers and independents. This year's theme concerns oil and gas reserves: are they abundant or are we headed towards the shortages announced by some experts? This theme is especially topical in that: oil and gas currently meet two thirds of world energy needs and almost completely dominate the transport sector; the reserves declared by the OAPEC countries account for nearly half of world reserves; the price of a barrel of oil went through the roof in 2004; world energy demand is growing fast and alternative sources of energy are far from ready to take over from oil and gas in the next few decades. Since the reserves correspond to the volume it is technically and economically viable to produce, the seminar has, of course, dealt with the technical and economic questions that arise in connection with exploration and production, but it has also considered changes in the geopolitical context. Presentations by the leading companies of the OAPEC countries and by the IFP group were completed by presentation from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the IHS Energy Group, Total and Gaz de France. This document gathers the transparencies of the following presentations: Hydrocarbon reserves in OAPEC members countries: current and future (M. Al-Lababidi); Non OAPEC liquid reserves and production forecasts (Y. Mathieu); World oil and gas resources and production outlook (K. Chew); Global investments in the upstream (F. Birol); Total's policy in the oil and gas sector (C. de Margerie); Gaz de France's policy in the oil and gas sector (J. Abiteboul); NOC/IOC's opportunities in OPEC countries (I. Sandrea); Relationships between companies, countries and investors: How they may impact on the growth

  8. Hydrocarbon Reserves: Abundance or Scarcity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    IFP and the OAPEC jointly organize a regular international seminar dealing with world oil-related problems appearing in the news. For the first time, this seminar has been opened to oil and gas company specialists, service companies, research centers and independents. This year's theme concerns oil and gas reserves: are they abundant or are we headed towards the shortages announced by some experts? This theme is especially topical in that: oil and gas currently meet two thirds of world energy needs and almost completely dominate the transport sector; the reserves declared by the OAPEC countries account for nearly half of world reserves; the price of a barrel of oil went through the roof in 2004; world energy demand is growing fast and alternative sources of energy are far from ready to take over from oil and gas in the next few decades. Since the reserves correspond to the volume it is technically and economically viable to produce, the seminar has, of course, dealt with the technical and economic questions that arise in connection with exploration and production, but it has also considered changes in the geopolitical context. Presentations by the leading companies of the OAPEC countries and by the IFP group were completed by presentation from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the IHS Energy Group, Total and Gaz de France. This document gathers the transparencies of the following presentations: Hydrocarbon reserves in OAPEC members countries: current and future (M. Al-Lababidi); Non OAPEC liquid reserves and production forecasts (Y. Mathieu); World oil and gas resources and production outlook (K. Chew); Global investments in the upstream (F. Birol); Total's policy in the oil and gas sector (C. de Margerie); Gaz de France's policy in the oil and gas sector (J. Abiteboul); NOC/IOC's opportunities in OPEC countries (I. Sandrea); Relationships between companies, countries and investors: How they may impact on the growth

  9. Concentration, flux, and trend estimates with uncertainty for nutrients, chloride, and total suspended solids in tributaries of Lake Champlain, 1990–2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medalie, Laura

    2016-12-20

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New England Interstate Water Pollution Control Commission and the Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation, estimated daily and 9-month concentrations and fluxes of total and dissolved phosphorus, total nitrogen, chloride, and total suspended solids from 1990 (or first available date) through 2014 for 18 tributaries of Lake Champlain. Estimates of concentration and flux, provided separately in Medalie (2016), were made by using the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) regression model and update previously published WRTDS model results with recent data. Assessment of progress towards meeting phosphorus-reduction goals outlined in the Lake Champlain management plan relies on annual estimates of phosphorus flux. The percent change in annual concentration and flux is provided for two time periods. The R package EGRETci was used to estimate the uncertainty of the trend estimate. Differences in model specification and function between this study and previous studies that used WRTDS to estimate concentration and flux using data from Lake Champlain tributaries are described. Winter data were too sparse and nonrepresentative to use for estimates of concentration and flux but were sufficient for estimating the percentage of total annual flux over the period of record. Median winter-to-annual fractions ranged between 21 percent for total suspended solids and 27 percent for dissolved phosphorus. The winter contribution was largest for all constituents from the Mettawee River and smallest from the Ausable River. For the full record (1991 through 2014 for total and dissolved phosphorus and chloride and 1993 through 2014 for nitrogen and total suspended solids), 6 tributaries had decreasing trends in concentrations of total phosphorus, and 12 had increasing trends; concentrations of dissolved phosphorus decreased in 6 and increased in 8 tributaries; fluxes of total phosphorus decreased in 5 and

  10. The validity and reproducibility of food-frequency questionnaire–based total antioxidant capacity estimates in Swedish women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Total antioxidant capacity (TAC) provides an assessment of antioxidant activity and synergistic interactions of redox molecules in foods and plasma. We investigated the validity and reproducibility of food frequency questionnaire (FFQ)–based TAC estimates assessed by oxygen radical absorbance capaci...

  11. Estimation of uncertainty of a reference material for proficiency testing for the determination of total mercury in fish in nature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santana, L V; Sarkis, J E S; Ulrich, J C; Hortellani, M A

    2015-01-01

    We provide an uncertainty estimates for homogeneity and stability studies of reference material used in proficiency test for determination of total mercury in fish fresh muscle tissue. Stability was estimated by linear regression and homogeneity by ANOVA. The results indicate that the reference material is both homogeneous and chemically stable over the short term. Total mercury concentration of the muscle tissue, with expanded uncertainty, was 0.294 ± 0.089 μg g −1

  12. Mapping and estimating the total living biomass and carbon in low-biomass woodlands using Landsat 8 CDR data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belachew Gizachew

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A functional forest carbon measuring, reporting and verification (MRV system to support climate change mitigation policies, such as REDD+, requires estimates of forest biomass carbon, as an input to estimate emissions. A combination of field inventory and remote sensing is expected to provide those data. By linking Landsat 8 and forest inventory data, we (1 developed linear mixed effects models for total living biomass (TLB estimation as a function of spectral variables, (2 developed a 30 m resolution map of the total living carbon (TLC, and (3 estimated the total TLB stock of the study area. Inventory data consisted of tree measurements from 500 plots in 63 clusters in a 15,700 km2 study area, in miombo woodlands of Tanzania. The Landsat 8 data comprised two climate data record images covering the inventory area. Results We found a linear relationship between TLB and Landsat 8 derived spectral variables, and there was no clear evidence of spectral data saturation at higher biomass values. The root-mean-square error of the values predicted by the linear model linking the TLB and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI is equal to 44 t/ha (49 % of the mean value. The estimated TLB for the study area was 140 Mt, with a mean TLB density of 81 t/ha, and a 95 % confidence interval of 74–88 t/ha. We mapped the distribution of TLC of the study area using the TLB model, where TLC was estimated at 47 % of TLB. Conclusion The low biomass in the miombo woodlands, and the absence of a spectral data saturation problem suggested that Landsat 8 derived NDVI is suitable auxiliary information for carbon monitoring in the context of REDD+, for low-biomass, open-canopy woodlands.

  13. Estimating total economic merit for the Portuguese Holstein cattle population under new economic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joana B.M. Almeida

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to develop a total economic merit index that identifies more profitable animals using Portugal as a case study to illustrate the recent economic changes in milk production. Economic values were estimated following future global prices and EU policy, and taking into consideration the priorities of the Portuguese dairy sector. Economic values were derived using an objective system analysis with a positive approach, that involved the comparison of several alternatives, using real technical and economic data from national dairy farms. The estimated relative economic values revealed a high importance of production traits, low for morphological traits and a value of zero for somatic cell score. According to several future market expectations, three scenarios for milk production were defined: a realistic, a pessimistic and an optimistic setting, each with projected future economic values. Responses to selection and efficiency of selection of the indices were compared to a fourth scenario that represents the current selection situation in Portugal, based on individual estimated breeding values for milk yield. Although profit resulting from sale of milk per average lactation in the optimistic scenario was higher than in the realistic scenario, the volatility of future economic conditions and uncertainty about the future milk pricing system should be considered. Due to this market instability, genetic improvement programs require new definitions of profit functions for the near future. Effective genetic progress direction must be verified so that total economic merit formulae can be adjusted and selection criteria redirected to the newly defined target goals.

  14. Pricing of reserves. Valuing system reserve capacity against spot prices in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Just, Sebastian; Weber, Christoph

    2008-01-01

    This paper models the interdependencies between markets for secondary reserve capacity and spot electricity to derive the pricing of reserves under equilibrium conditions. Starting with the indifference condition between offering in both markets, the reservation price is derived from the opportunity cost consideration and the unit commitment conditions in a fundamental interrelated market framework. The reserve market examined compares widely to the German market for secondary reserves, but the general approach may also be used to investigate other reserve markets. The approach explores and formalizes the influence of reserve capacity on the spot market supply function. A numerical solution procedure is provided to this non-trivial case of market interaction. The model is used to estimate the expected reservation price development over the last years in Germany. (author)

  15. Role of nature reserves in giant panda protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Dongwei; Li, Junqing

    2018-02-01

    Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is a flagship species in nature conservation of the world; to protect this species, 67 nature reserves have been established in China. To evaluate the protection effect of giant panda nature reserves, we analyzed the variation of giant panda number and habitat area of 23 giant panda nature reserves of Sichuan province based on the national survey data released by State Forestry Administration and Sichuan Forestry Department. Results showed that from the third national survey to the fourth, giant panda number and habitat area of 23 giant panda nature reserves of Sichuan province failed to realize the significant increase. Furthermore, we found that the total population growth rate of 23 nature reserves in the last 12 years was lower than those of the province total of Sichuan and the national total of China, and the total habitat area of the 23 nature reserves was decreasing in the last 12 years, but the province total and national total were all increasing. We propose that giant panda protection should pay more attention to how to improve the protective effects of nature reserves.

  16. Background estimation in short-wave region during determination of total sample composition by x-ray fluorescence method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simakov, V.A.; Kordyukov, S.V.; Petrov, E.N.

    1988-01-01

    Method of background estimation in short-wave spectral region during determination of total sample composition by X-ray fluorescence method is described. 13 types of different rocks with considerable variations of base composition and Zr, Nb, Th, U content below 7x10 -3 % are investigated. The suggested method of background accounting provides for a less statistical error of the background estimation than direct isolated measurement and reliability of its determination in a short-wave region independent on the sample base. Possibilities of suggested method for artificial mixtures conforming by the content of main component to technological concemtrates - niobium, zirconium, tantalum are estimated

  17. Hydrocarbon Reserves: Abundance or Scarcity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    IFP and the OAPEC jointly organize a regular international seminar dealing with world oil-related problems appearing in the news. For the first time, this seminar has been opened to oil and gas company specialists, service companies, research centers and independents. This year's theme concerns oil and gas reserves: are they abundant or are we headed towards the shortages announced by some experts? This theme is especially topical in that: oil and gas currently meet two thirds of world energy needs and almost completely dominate the transport sector; the reserves declared by the OAPEC countries account for nearly half of world reserves; the price of a barrel of oil went through the roof in 2004; world energy demand is growing fast and alternative sources of energy are far from ready to take over from oil and gas in the next few decades. Since the reserves correspond to the volume it is technically and economically viable to produce, the seminar has, of course, dealt with the technical and economic questions that arise in connection with exploration and production, but it has also considered changes in the geopolitical context. Presentations by the leading companies of the OAPEC countries and by the IFP group were completed by presentation from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the IHS Energy Group, Total and Gaz de France. This document gathers the transparencies of the following presentations: Hydrocarbon reserves in OAPEC members countries: current and future (M. Al-Lababidi); Non OAPEC liquid reserves and production forecasts (Y. Mathieu); World oil and gas resources and production outlook (K. Chew); Global investments in the upstream (F. Birol); Total's policy in the oil and gas sector (C. de Margerie); Gaz de France's policy in the oil and gas sector (J. Abiteboul); NOC/IOC's opportunities in OPEC countries (I. Sandrea); Relationships between companies, countries and investors: How they may

  18. Brain reserve and cognitive reserve protect against cognitive decline over 4.5 years in MS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumowski, James F; Rocca, Maria A; Leavitt, Victoria M; Dackovic, Jelena; Mesaros, Sarlota; Drulovic, Jelena; DeLuca, John; Filippi, Massimo

    2014-05-20

    Based on the theories of brain reserve and cognitive reserve, we investigated whether larger maximal lifetime brain growth (MLBG) and/or greater lifetime intellectual enrichment protect against cognitive decline over time. Forty patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) underwent baseline and 4.5-year follow-up evaluations of cognitive efficiency (Symbol Digit Modalities Test, Paced Auditory Serial Addition Task) and memory (Selective Reminding Test, Spatial Recall Test). Baseline and follow-up MRIs quantified disease progression: percentage brain volume change (cerebral atrophy), percentage change in T2 lesion volume. MLBG (brain reserve) was estimated with intracranial volume; intellectual enrichment (cognitive reserve) was estimated with vocabulary. We performed repeated-measures analyses of covariance to investigate whether larger MLBG and/or greater intellectual enrichment moderate/attenuate cognitive decline over time, controlling for disease progression. Patients with MS declined in cognitive efficiency and memory (p improve prediction of future cognitive decline in patients with MS. © 2014 American Academy of Neurology.

  19. Successional study for the restoration at Carpatos forest reserve in Guasca, Cundinamarca

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantillo Higuera Edgard Ernesto; Lozada Silva Alberto; Pinzon Gonzalez Julian

    2009-01-01

    Based on floristic and structural characterization, four stages of secondary succession were analyzed within a matrix of vegetation that had been disrupted (185 ha) at Carpatos Forest Reserve. This reserve is located in the foothills of Colombian's Eastern Mountain Range (Cordillera Oriental), among 2600 and 3000 meters above sea level, and it is aimed at making a contribution to prepare a restoration protocol. In flat, wet areas, vegetation represented by grassland whit Rubus floribundum y Pteridium aquilinum, grows up to 0.7 m height on average. It is characterized by Pteridium aquilinum, which holds an average of 1638 individuals per 0.1 ha and a total of four species with the same number of genera and families bushes of Solanum inopinum and Chusquea scandens, less than 3 m height, were dominated by Chusquea scandens, with an estimated average of 638 individuals per 0.1 ha and a total of four species and the same number of genera and families. In areas of steeper slopes and lower humidity more structured vegetation grows. This forests in recovery dominated by Miconia theaezans y Myrsine coriacea, which contains two types of vegetation: Hedyosmum crenatum y Myrsine coriacea, which are dominated by a shrub layer no taller than 5 m, with Myrsine coriacea as its most important species, and an estimated average of 1742 individuals per 0.1 ha and a total of 18 species, 16 genera and 13 families, and Weinmannia pinnata y Miconia theaezans, represented by Myrsine coriacea, Miconia theaezans and Weinmannia pinnata as important species, which held an estimated average of 1833 individuals per 0.1 ha and a total of 14 species, 12 genera and 11 families. Myrsine coriacea, Miconia theaezans, Weinmannia pinnata and Hedyosmun crenatum are regarded as the most suitable to start reproductive, adaptive and developing silvicultural protocols. Management analysis suggests that there is a correlation between higher clay content and the secondary-succession initial-state communities

  20. Reserve selection with land market feedbacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butsic, Van; Lewis, David J; Radeloff, Volker C

    2013-01-15

    How to best site reserves is a leading question for conservation biologists. Recently, reserve selection has emphasized efficient conservation: maximizing conservation goals given the reality of limited conservation budgets, and this work indicates that land market can potentially undermine the conservation benefits of reserves by increasing property values and development probabilities near reserves. Here we propose a reserve selection methodology which optimizes conservation given both a budget constraint and land market feedbacks by using a combination of econometric models along with stochastic dynamic programming. We show that amenity based feedbacks can be accounted for in optimal reserve selection by choosing property price and land development models which exogenously estimate the effects of reserve establishment. In our empirical example, we use previously estimated models of land development and property prices to select parcels to maximize coarse woody debris along 16 lakes in Vilas County, WI, USA. Using each lake as an independent experiment, we find that including land market feedbacks in the reserve selection algorithm has only small effects on conservation efficacy. Likewise, we find that in our setting heuristic (minloss and maxgain) algorithms perform nearly as well as the optimal selection strategy. We emphasize that land market feedbacks can be included in optimal reserve selection; the extent to which this improves reserve placement will likely vary across landscapes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Leveraging Real-World Evidence in Disease-Management Decision-Making with a Total Cost of Care Estimator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Thanh-Nghia; Trocio, Jeffrey; Kowal, Stacey; Ferrufino, Cheryl P; Munakata, Julie; South, Dell

    2016-12-01

    Health management is becoming increasingly complex, given a range of care options and the need to balance costs and quality. The ability to measure and understand drivers of costs is critical for healthcare organizations to effectively manage their patient populations. Healthcare decision makers can leverage real-world evidence to explore the value of disease-management interventions in shifting total cost trends. To develop a real-world, evidence-based estimator that examines the impact of disease-management interventions on the total cost of care (TCoC) for a patient population with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Data were collected from a patient-level real-world evidence data set that uses the IMS PharMetrics Health Plan Claims Database. Pharmacy and medical claims for patients meeting the inclusion or exclusion criteria were combined in longitudinal cohorts with a 180-day preindex and 360-day follow-up period. Descriptive statistics, such as mean and median patient costs and event rates, were derived from a real-world evidence analysis and were used to populate the base-case estimates within the TCoC estimator, an exploratory economic model that was designed to estimate the potential impact of several disease-management activities on the TCoC for a patient population with NVAF. Using Microsoft Excel, the estimator is designed to compare current direct costs of medical care to projected costs by varying assumptions on the impact of disease-management activities and applying the associated changes in cost trends to the affected populations. Disease-management levers are derived from literature-based concepts affecting costs along the NVAF disease continuum. The use of the estimator supports analyses across 4 US geographic regions, age, cost types, and care settings during 1 year. All patients included in the study were continuously enrolled in their health plan (within the IMS PharMetrics Health Plan Claims Database) between July 1, 2010, and June 30

  2. Analysis of total least squares in estimating the parameters of a mortar trajectory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lau, D.L.; Ng, L.C.

    1994-12-01

    Least Squares (LS) is a method of curve fitting used with the assumption that error exists in the observation vector. The method of Total Least Squares (TLS) is more useful in cases where there is error in the data matrix as well as the observation vector. This paper describes work done in comparing the LS and TLS results for parameter estimation of a mortar trajectory based on a time series of angular observations. To improve the results, we investigated several derivations of the LS and TLS methods, and early findings show TLS provided slightly, 10%, improved results over the LS method.

  3. Spatial heterogeneity of malaria in Indian reserves of Southwestern Amazonia, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santos Ricardo

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria constitutes a major cause of morbidity in the Brazilian Amazon where an estimated 6 million people are considered at high risk of transmission. Indigenous peoples in the Amazon are particularly vulnerable to potentially epidemic disease such as malaria; notwithstanding, very little is known about the epidemiology of malaria in Indian reservations of the region. The aim of this paper is to present a spatial analysis of malaria cases over a four-year time period (2003–2006 among indigenous peoples of the Brazilian State of Rondônia, southwestern Amazon, by using passive morbidity data (results from Giemsa-stained thick blood smears gathered from the National Malaria Epidemiologic Surveillance System databank. Results A total of 4,160 cases of malaria were recorded in 14 Indian reserves in the State of Rondônia between 2003 and 2006. In six reservations no cases of malaria were reported in the period. Overall, P. vivax accounted for 76.18 of malaria cases reported in the indigenous population of Rondônia. The P. vivax/P. falciparum ratio for the period was 3.78. Two reserves accounted for over half of the cases reported for the total indigenous population in the period – Roosevelt and Pacaas Novas – with a total of 1,646 (39.57% and 1,145 (27.52% cases, respectively. Kernel mapping of malaria mean Annual Parasite Index – API according to indigenous reserves and environmental zones revealed a heterogeneous pattern of disease distribution, with one clear area of high risk of transmission comprising reservations of west Rondônia along the Guaporé-Madeira River basins, and another high risk area to the east, on the Roosevelt reserve. Conclusion By means of kernel mapping, it was shown that malaria risk varies widely between Indian reserves and environmental zones defined on the basis of predominant ecologic characteristics and land use patterns observed in the southwestern Brazilian Amazon. The geographical

  4. Reduction of wind power induced reserve requirements by advanced shortest-term forecasts and prediction intervals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobschinski, Jan; Wessel, Arne; Lange, Bernhard; Bremen, Lueder von [Fraunhofer Institut fuer Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (IWES), Kassel (Germany)

    2009-07-01

    In electricity systems with large penetration of wind power, the limited predictability of the wind power generation leads to an increase in reserve and balancing requirements. At first the present study concentrates on the capability of dynamic day-ahead prediction intervals to reduce the wind power induced reserve and balancing requirements. Alternatively the reduction of large forecast errors of the German wind power generation by using advanced shortest-term predictions has been evaluated in a second approach. With focus on the allocation of minute reserve power the aim is to estimate the maximal remaining uncertainty after trading activities on the intraday market. Finally both approaches were used in a case study concerning the reserve requirements induced by the total German wind power expansion in 2007. (orig.)

  5. Uncertainty Model for Total Solar Irradiance Estimation on Australian Rooftops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Saadi, Hassan; Zivanovic, Rastko; Al-Sarawi, Said

    2017-11-01

    The installations of solar panels on Australian rooftops have been in rise for the last few years, especially in the urban areas. This motivates academic researchers, distribution network operators and engineers to accurately address the level of uncertainty resulting from grid-connected solar panels. The main source of uncertainty is the intermittent nature of radiation, therefore, this paper presents a new model to estimate the total radiation incident on a tilted solar panel. Where a probability distribution factorizes clearness index, the model is driven upon clearness index with special attention being paid for Australia with the utilization of best-fit-correlation for diffuse fraction. The assessment of the model validity is achieved with the adoption of four goodness-of-fit techniques. In addition, the Quasi Monte Carlo and sparse grid methods are used as sampling and uncertainty computation tools, respectively. High resolution data resolution of solar irradiations for Adelaide city were used for this assessment, with an outcome indicating a satisfactory agreement between actual data variation and model.

  6. An Update on Ovarian Aging and Ovarian Reserve Tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Migraci Tosun

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Ovaries are the female organs that age more quickly than other tissues such as the uterus, the pituitary gland or pancreas. Different from males, an interesting question is why and how the females lose fertility so rapidly. During the aging process, both the number and quality of the oocytes in the ovaries decrease and reach to a point beyond that no more viable offspring may be produced and the associated cyclic endocrinological activities cease, entering the menopause in females at an average age of 50 years. Females who delayed childbearing with or without their willing until their 30 years or 40 years constitute the largest portion of the total infertility population. Ovarian reserve tests (ORTs provide an indirect estimate of a female�s diminishing ovarian reserve or remaining follicular pool. This article briefly reviews recent progresses in relation to ovarian aging and ORTs.

  7. Application of nuclear-geophysical methods to reserves estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bessonova, T.B.; Karpenko, I.A.

    1980-01-01

    On the basis of the analysis of reports dealing with calculations of mineral reserves considered are shortcomings in using nuclear-geophysical methods and in assessment of the reliability of geophysical sampling. For increasing efficiency of nuclear-geophysical investigations while prospecting ore deposits, it is advisable to introduce them widely instead of traditional geological sampling methods. For this purpose it is necessary to increase sensitivity and accuracy of radioactivity logging methods, to provide determination of certain elements in ores by these methods

  8. Use of total body electrical conductivity (TOBEC) to determine total body water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cochran, W.; Wong, W.; Sheng, H.P.; Klein, P.; Klish, W.

    1986-01-01

    Total body electrical conductivity (TOBEC) has been introduced as a safe and rapid method to estimate body composition in infants and adults. Recently, a second generation instrument that operates in a scanning mode has been developed. A study was undertaken to calibrate this new instrument and to assess the feasibility of its use in estimating total body water. Six healthy adults, 3 males and 3 females, ranging in age from 25 to 57 years, and in weight from 43.3 to 104.7 kg were analyzed. Simultaneously, determinations of total body water were made by standard dilutional techniques using H 2 18 O. A baseline plasma sample was obtained and 60 mg 18 O/kg was given orally as H 2 18 O. Five hr later, a postdose plasma sample was obtained. The 18 O/ 16 O ratio in the plasma samples was determined as CO 2 by gas-isotope-ratio mass spectrometry and used to calculate the H 2 18 O volume of distribution. The total body water values ranged from 26.35 to 58.02 and represented 51 to 58% of body weight. There was good linear correlation between the total body water measurement and its phase average (TOBEC number) with a linear correlation coefficient of 0.998. The standard error of the estimate was 0.98. In addition to estimating fat and fat-free mass, the TOBEC method also estimates total body water with excellent correlation to physical dilutions methods

  9. World statistics on natural gas reserves, production and utilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raikaslehto, S.

    2001-01-01

    By reviewing the statistics of BP Amoco on natural gas reserves, production and usage, it is easy to see that Russia and USA, both being large natural gas producers, differ significantly from each other. The natural gas reserves of USA are 6th largest in the world, simultaneously the natural gas consumption and import are largest in the world. About one third of the known natural gas reserves of the world are in Russia. The known natural gas reserves of both USA and Canada have decreases, but they have potential gas reserves left. Known natural gas reserves of the USA have been calculated to be sufficient for 9 years consumption at present usage and those of Canada for 11 years. The reserves of Algeria correspond to the usage of 55 years, and the Russian reserves for are about 83 years. Annual production figures of both Russia and the USA are nearly the same. Russia is the largest exporter (125.5 billion m 3 ) of natural gas and the USA the largest importer (96 billion m 3 ). The natural gas reserves of the largest European producers, the Netherlands and Norway have been estimated to be sufficient for use of about 20 years, but those of Great Britain only for about 10 years. The annual production of Russia has varied in the 1990s between nearly 600 billion m 3 and present 550 billion m 3 , the minimum being in 1997 only about 532 billion m 3 . Ten largest natural gas consumers use 67% of the natural gas consumed annually in the world. USA consumes about 27% of the total natural gas produced in the world, the amount of Russia being 364 billion m 3 (16%). Other large natural gas consumers are Great Britain, Germany, Japan, Ukraine, Canada, Italy, Iran and Uzbekistan. The share of these countries of the total consumption varied in between 2-4%. Only Japan has no natural gas production of its own. The foreign trade between Japan and Indonesia is trade on LNG. On the other hand the natural gas consumption of the world's 10th largest producer Norway is nearly zero, so

  10. Estimates of ground-water pumpage from the Yakima River Basin aquifer system, Washington, 1960-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaccaro, J.J.; Sumioka, S.S.

    2006-01-01

    Ground-water pumpage in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, was estimated for eight categories of use for 1960-2000 as part of an investigation to assess groundwater availability in the basin. Methods used, pumpage estimates, reliability of the estimates, and a comparison with appropriated quantities are described. The eight categories of pumpage were public water supply, self-supplied domestic (exempt wells), irrigation, frost protection, livestock and dairy operations, industrial and commercial, fish and wildlife propagation, and ground-water claims. Pumpage estimates were based on methods that varied by the category and primarily represent pumpage for groundwater rights. Washington State Department of Ecology’s digital database has 2,874 active ground-water rights in the basin that can withdraw an annual quantity of about 529,231 acre-feet during dry years. Irrigation rights are for irrigation of about 129,570 acres. All but 220 of the rights were associated with well drillers’ logs, allowing for a spatial representation of the pumpage. Five-hundred and sixty of the irrigation rights were estimated to be standby/reserve rights. During this study, another 30 rights were identified that were not in the digital database. These rights can withdraw an annual quantity of about 20,969 acre-feet; about 6,700 acre-feet of these rights are near but outside the basin. In 1960, total annual pumpage in the basin, excluding standby/reserve pumpage, was about 115,776 acre-feet. By 2000, total annual pumpage was estimated to be 395,096 acre-feet, and excluding the standby/reserve rights, the total was 312,284 acre-feet. Irrigation accounts for about 60 percent of the pumpage, followed by public water supply at about 12 percent. The smallest category of pumpage was for livestock use with pumpage estimated to be 6,726 acre-feet. Total annual pumpage in 2000 was about 430 cubic feet per second, which is about 11 percent of the surface-water demand. Maximum pumpage is in July

  11. Total cost estimates for large-scale wind scenarios in UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dale, Lewis; Milborrow, David; Slark, Richard; Strbac, Goran

    2004-01-01

    The recent UK Energy White Paper suggested that the Government should aim to secure 20% of electricity from renewable sources by 2020. A number of estimates of the extra cost of such a commitment have been made, but these have not necessarily included all the relevant cost components. This analysis sets out to identify these and to calculate the extra cost to the electricity consumer, assuming all the renewable electricity is sourced from wind energy. This enables one of the more controversial issues--the implications of wind intermittency--to be addressed. The basis of the assumptions associated with generating costs, extra balancing costs and distribution and transmission system reinforcement costs are all clearly identified and the total costs of a '20% wind' scenario are compared with a scenario where a similar amount of energy is generated by gas-fired plant. This enables the extra costs of the renewables scenario to be determined. The central estimate of the extra costs to electricity consumers is just over 0.3 p/kW h in current prices (around 5% extra on average domestic unit prices). Sensitivity analyses examine the implications of differing assumptions. The extra cost would rise if the capital costs of wind generation fall slower than anticipated, but would fall if gas prices rise more rapidly than has been assumed, or if wind plant are more productive. Even if it is assumed that wind has no capacity displacement value, the added cost to the electricity consumer rises by less than 0.1 p/kW h. It is concluded that there does not appear to be any technical reason why a substantial proportion of the country's electricity requirements could not be delivered by wind

  12. Brazilian uranium reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques, J.P.M.

    1981-01-01

    Due to a growing demand of electric power to support Brasil's development, the use of nuclear energy will be indispensable. The nuclear fuel cycle for the production of energy, starts with the uranium exploration. The work performed in this field led to the discovery of several deposits in the country, which to-date totalize a reserve of 236,300t of U 308 , ranking Brazil in the 6th place among the nations of the western world holding uranium reserves. (Author) [pt

  13. Estimation of Filling and Afterload Conditions by Pump Intrinsic Parameters in a Pulsatile Total Artificial Heart.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuenca-Navalon, Elena; Laumen, Marco; Finocchiaro, Thomas; Steinseifer, Ulrich

    2016-07-01

    A physiological control algorithm is being developed to ensure an optimal physiological interaction between the ReinHeart total artificial heart (TAH) and the circulatory system. A key factor for that is the long-term, accurate determination of the hemodynamic state of the cardiovascular system. This study presents a method to determine estimation models for predicting hemodynamic parameters (pump chamber filling and afterload) from both left and right cardiovascular circulations. The estimation models are based on linear regression models that correlate filling and afterload values with pump intrinsic parameters derived from measured values of motor current and piston position. Predictions for filling lie in average within 5% from actual values, predictions for systemic afterload (AoPmean , AoPsys ) and mean pulmonary afterload (PAPmean ) lie in average within 9% from actual values. Predictions for systolic pulmonary afterload (PAPsys ) present an average deviation of 14%. The estimation models show satisfactory prediction and confidence intervals and are thus suitable to estimate hemodynamic parameters. This method and derived estimation models are a valuable alternative to implanted sensors and are an essential step for the development of a physiological control algorithm for a fully implantable TAH. Copyright © 2015 International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Movement and Home Range of Nile Crocodiles in Ndumo Game Reserve, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter M. Calverley

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The study of movement patterns and home range is fundamental in understanding the spatial requirements of animals and is important in generating information for the conservation and management of threatened species. Ndumo Game Reserve, in north-eastern KwaZulu-Natal, bordering Mozambique, has the third largest Nile crocodile (Crocodylus niloticus population in South Africa. Movement patterns of 50 Nile crocodiles with a total length of between 202 cm and 472 cm were followed over a period of 18 months, using mark-resight, radio and satellite telemetry. The duration of radio transmitter attachment (131 ± 11.4 days was significantly and negatively related to total length and reproductive status. Satellite transmitters failed after an average of 15 ± 12.5 days. Home range was calculated for individuals with 10 or more radio locations, spanning a period of at least 6 months. There was a significant relationship between home range size and total length, with sub-adults (1.5 m – 2.5 m occupying smaller, more localised home ranges than adults (> 2.5 m. The largest home ranges were for adults (> 2.5 m. Home ranges overlapped extensively, suggesting that territoriality, if present, does not result in spatially discrete home ranges of Nile crocodiles in Ndumo Game Reserve during the dry season. Larger crocodiles moved farther and more frequently than smaller crocodiles. The reserve acts as a winter refuge and spring breeding site for an estimated 846 crocodiles, which also inhabit the Rio Maputo during the summer months. Nile crocodile movement out of the reserve and into the Rio Maputo starts in November and crocodiles return to the reserve as water levels in the floodplain recede in May. Conservation implications: Movement patterns of Nile crocodiles show the important role the reserve plays in the conservation of Nile crocodile populations within the greater Ndumo Game Reserve–Rio Maputo area.

  15. Estimating Total Claim Size in the Auto Insurance Industry: a Comparison between Tweedie and Zero-Adjusted Inverse Gaussian Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Bruscato Bortoluzzo

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this article is to estimate insurance claims from an auto dataset using the Tweedie and zero-adjusted inverse Gaussian (ZAIG methods. We identify factors that influence claim size and probability, and compare the results of these methods which both forecast outcomes accurately. Vehicle characteristics like territory, age, origin and type distinctly influence claim size and probability. This distinct impact is not always present in the Tweedie estimated model. Auto insurers should consider estimating total claim size using both the Tweedie and ZAIG methods. This allows for an estimation of confidence interval based on empirical quantiles using bootstrap simulation. Furthermore, the fitted models may be useful in developing a strategy to obtain premium pricing.

  16. 12 CFR 204.7 - Supplemental reserve requirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Supplemental reserve requirement. 204.7 Section... RESERVE REQUIREMENTS OF DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS (REGULATION D) § 204.7 Supplemental reserve requirement... reserve requirement on every depository institution of not more than 4 percent of its total transaction...

  17. US crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves: 1990 annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-09-01

    The primary focus of this report is to provide an accurate estimate of US proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. These estimates were considered essential to the development, implementation, and evaluation of natural energy policy and legislation. In the past, the government and the public relied upon industry estimates of proved reserves. These estimates were prepared jointly by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the American Gas Association (AGA) and published in their annual report, Reserves of Crude Oil, Natural Gas Liquids, and Natural Gas in the United States and Canada. However, API and AGA ceased publication of reserves estimates after their 1979 report. By the mid-1970's, various federal agencies had separately established programs to collect data on, verify, or independently estimate domestic proved reserves of crude oil or natural gas. Each program was narrowly defined to meet the particular needs of the sponsoring agency. In response to recognized need for unified, comprehensive proved reserves estimates, Congress in 1977 required the Department of Energy to prepare such estimates. To meet this requirement, the EIA's reserves program was undertaken to establish a unified, verifiable, comprehensive, and continuing statistical series for proved reserves of crude oil and natural gas. The program was expanded to include proved reserves of natural gas liquids in the 1979 report. 36 refs., 11 figs., 16 tabs

  18. Securities issues in reserves reporting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Legg, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    Securities issues in oil and gas reserves reporting were discussed. Alberta requires specific information regarding important oil and gas properties, plants, facilities and installations. When preparing the reserves report, the following elements are important to consider: (1) the author of the report must be a registered professional engineer or registered professional geologist, (2) the report itself must be an engineering document, (3) the content of the report must be extensive, (4) it should be prepared in accordance with petroleum engineering and evaluation practices, and must include a summary of estimated net reserves

  19. Regulation of the Na(+)-K+ pump activity and estimation of the reserve capacity in intact rat peritoneal mast cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Torben; Johansen, Torben

    1990-01-01

    Evidence is provided that regulation of the Na(+)-K+ pump activity in rat peritoneal mast cells occurs mainly through stimulation of the pump from inside the plasma membrane by sodium. It is demonstrated that there is a large reserve capacity for the exchange of intracellular sodium...... with extracellular potassium in these cells. The maximal pump activity was estimated to be 3230 pmol/10(6) cells per min and Km for extracellular potassium was 1.5 mM....

  20. MRI estimation of total renal volume demonstrates significant association with healthy donor weight

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, Emil I.; Kelly, Sarah A.; Edye, Michael; Mitty, Harold A.; Bromberg, Jonathan S.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to correlate total renal volume (TRV) calculations, obtained through the voxel-count method and ellipsoid formula with various physical characteristics. Materials and methods: MRI reports and physical examination from 210 healthy kidney donors (420 kidneys), on whom renal volumes were obtained using the voxel-count method, were retrospectively reviewed. These values along with ones obtained through a more traditional method (ellipsoid formula) were correlated with subject height, body weight, body mass index (BMI), and age. Results: TRV correlated strongly with body weight (r = 0.7) and to a lesser degree with height, age, or BMI (r = 0.5, -0.2, 0.3, respectively). The left kidney volume was greater than the right, on average (p < 0.001). The ellipsoid formula method over-estimated renal volume by 17% on average which was significant (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Body weight was the physical characteristic which demonstrated the strongest correlation with renal volume in healthy subjects. Given this finding, a formula was derived for estimating the TRV for a given patient based on the his or her weight: TRV = 2.96 x weight (kg) + 113 ± 64.

  1. Estimation of coronary flow reserve by sestamibi imaging in patients with mild hypertension and normal coronary arteries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storto, G.; Gallicchio, R.; Maddalena, F.; Pellegrino, T.; Petretta, M.; Fiumara, G.; Cuocolo, A.

    2015-01-01

    Patients with hypertension may exhibit abnormal vasodilator capacity during pharmacological vasodilatation. We assessed coronary flow reserve (CFR) by sestamibi imaging in hypertensive patients with normal coronary vessels. Twenty-five patients with untreated mild essential hypertension and normal coronary vessels and 10 control subjects underwent dipyridamole-rest Tc-99m sestamibi imaging. Myocardial blood flow (MBF) was estimated by measuring first transit counts in pulmonary artery and myocardial counts from tomograhic images. CFR was expressed as the ratio of stress to rest MBF. Coronary vascular resistances (CVR) were computed as the ratio between mean arterial pressure and MBF. Estimated MBF at rest was not different in patients and controls (1.11±0.59 vs. 1.14±0.28 counts/pixel/s; P=0.87). Conversely, stress MBF was lower in patients than in controls (1.55±0.47 vs. 2.68±0.53 counts/pixel/s; P<0.001). Thus, CFR was reduced in patients compared to controls (1.61±0.58 vs. 2.43±0.62; P<0.001). Rest and stress CVR values were higher in patients (P<0.001), while stress-induced changes in CVR were not different (P=0.08) between patients (-51%) and controls (-62%). In the overall study population, a significant relation between CFR and stress-induced changes in CVR was observed (r=-0.86; P<0.001). Sestamibi imaging may detect impaired coronary vascular function in response to dipyridamole in patients with untreated mild essential hypertension and normal coronary arteries. A mild increase in arterial blood pressure does not affect baseline MBF, but impairs coronary reserve due to the amplified resting coronary resistances.

  2. Reserves reporting for decision-making planning and control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higgins, G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper shows how the established Monte Carlo simulation approach to estimating hydrocarbon reserves can be expanded to provide the basis of a comprehensive valuation, planning and control system meeting all the reserve reporting requirements of an oil exploration and production company. The approach presented is also appropriate for other mining and extractive industries. The paper demonstrates how individual expectation curves can be modified to reflect both technically and commercially recoverable reserves and how these are in turn combined into the economic valuation, planning and control processes of an enterprise. Estimates across the full range of risk and reserves can be aggregated to provide a powerful planning tool that can be used to set corporate, divisional and individual objectives

  3. Natural gas reserve growth in Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woronuk, R. [Canadian Gas Potential Committee, Calgary, AB (Canada)]|[GasEnergy Strategies Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2003-07-01

    An appreciation study of a natural gas reservoir is a component of assessing its ultimate reserve potential. The Canadian Gas Potential Committee (CGPC) defines appreciation as the change in a reserve estimate from a previously booked pool or basin. Basins cannot appreciate through the addition of new pools. Ultimate potential includes all of the following: cumulative production; remaining discovered reserves; adjustments to remaining discovered reserves; and, full appreciated undiscovered reserves. This presentation outlined the procedures used by the CGPC in its appreciation studies. It also reviewed data supplier issues, regulatory practices, and booking issues. A series of graphs were also included depicting pools discovered in 1993 and the average pool gas in place. Reservoir loss from 1993 to 1998 was attributed to the fact that enhanced recovery technology cannot keep pace with the degradation in pool quality. It was noted that beyond 1998, significant increases in gas prices should increase recovery factors. Special studies by the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board have included the depreciation of unconnected gas pools and the appreciation of sheet sands. The challenge of tracking pool appreciation was discussed with reference to estimating new pool discoveries in established fields. 2 tabs., 6 figs.

  4. Geostatistics applied to estimation of uranium bearing ore reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urbina Galan, L.I.

    1982-01-01

    A computer assisted method for assessing uranium-bearing ore deposit reserves is analyzed. Determinations of quality-thickness, namely quality by thickness calculations of mineralization, were obtained by means of a mathematical method known as the theory of rational variables for each drill-hole layer. Geostatistical results were derived based on a Fortrand computer program on a DEC 20/40 system. (author)

  5. In vitro anthelmintic activity of Barleria buxifolia on Indian adult earthworms and estimation of total flavonoid content

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Purna A. Chander

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To study the anthelmintic activity of Barleria buxifolia leaf and to estimate the total flavonoid content. Methods: The aqueous and ethanolic leaf extracts were prepared and these were analyzed for total flavonoid content by aluminium chloride colorimetric method and Pheretima posthuma was used for anthelmintic activity by using the different concentrations (10, 20, 40, 80 and 100 mg/mL. Results: All the investigational extracts showed an anthelmintic activity at concentration of 10 mg/mL. The ethanolic extract of 100 mg/mL has produced an significant effect (P<0.001 when compared to aqueous extract. The total flavonoid content was found to be 5.67 mg QE/100 g. Conclusions: From the above study, the leaf extract has shown a good anthelmintic activity.

  6. Comparison of three persulfate digestion methods for total phosphorus analysis and estimation of suspended sediments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dayton, Elizabeth Ann; Whitacre, Shane; Holloman, Christopher

    2017-01-01

    As a result of impairments to fresh surface water quality due to phosphorus enrichment, substantial research effort has been put forth to quantify agricultural runoff phosphorus as related to on-field practices. While the analysis of runoff dissolved phosphorus is well prescribed and leaves little room for variability in methodology, there are several methods and variations of sample preparation reagents as well as analysis procedures for determining runoff total phosphorus. Due to the variation in methodology for determination of total phosphorus and an additional laboratory procedure required to measure suspended solids, the objectives of the current study are to i. compare the performance of three persulfate digestion methods (Acid Persulfate, USGS, and Alkaline Persulfate) for total phosphorus percent recovery across a wide range of suspended sediments (SS), and ii. evaluate the ability of using Al and/or Fe in digestion solution to predict SS as a surrogate to the traditional gravimetric method. Percent recovery of total phosphorus was determined using suspensions prepared from soils collected from 21 agricultural fields in Ohio. The Acid Persulfate method was most effective, with an average total phosphorus percent recovery of 96.6%. The second most effective method was the USGS with an average total phosphorus recovery of 76.1%. However, the Alkaline Persulfate method performed poorly with an average 24.5% total phosphorus recovery. As a result application of Alkaline Persulfate digestion to edge of field monitoring may drastically underestimated runoff total phosphorus. In addition to excellent recovery of total phosphorus, the Acid Persulfate method combined with analysis of Al and Fe by inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry provides a robust estimate of total SS. Due to the large quantity of samples that can result from water quality monitoring, an indirect measure of total SS could be very valuable when time and budget constraints limit

  7. A new detailed map of total phosphorus stocks in Australian soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viscarra Rossel, Raphael A; Bui, Elisabeth N

    2016-01-15

    Accurate data are needed to effectively monitor environmental condition, and develop sound policies to plan for the future. Globally, current estimates of soil total phosphorus (P) stocks are very uncertain because they are derived from sparse data, with large gaps over many areas of the Earth. Here, we derive spatially explicit estimates, and their uncertainty, of the distribution and stock of total P in Australian soil. Data from several sources were harmonized to produce the most comprehensive inventory of total P in soil of the continent. They were used to produce fine spatial resolution continental maps of total P in six depth layers by combining the bootstrap, a decision tree with piecewise regression on environmental variables and geostatistical modelling of residuals. Values of percent total P were predicted at the nodes of a 3-arcsecond (approximately 90 m) grid and mapped together with their uncertainties. We combined these predictions with those for bulk density and mapped the total soil P stock in the 0-30 cm layer over the whole of Australia. The average amount of P in Australian topsoil is estimated to be 0.98 t ha(-1) with 90% confidence limits of 0.2 and 4.2 t ha(-1). The total stock of P in the 0-30 cm layer of soil for the continent is 0.91 Gt with 90% confidence limits of 0.19 and 3.9 Gt. The estimates are the most reliable approximation of the stock of total P in Australian soil to date. They could help improve ecological models, guide the formulation of policy around food and water security, biodiversity and conservation, inform future sampling for inventory, guide the design of monitoring networks, and provide a benchmark against which to assess the impact of changes in land cover, land use and management and climate on soil P stocks and water quality in Australia. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Alternative measures of the Federal Reserve Banks' cost of equity capital

    OpenAIRE

    Barnes, Michelle L.; Lopez, Jose A.

    2005-01-01

    The Monetary Control Act of 1980 requires the Federal Reserve System to provide payment services to depository institutions through the twelve Federal Reserve Banks at prices that fully reflect the costs a private-sector provider would incur, including a cost of equity capital (COE). Although Fama and French (1997) conclude that COE estimates are “woefully” and “unavoidably” imprecise, the Reserve Banks require such an estimate every year. We examine several COE estimates based on the Capital...

  9. Derelict fishing line provides a useful proxy for estimating levels of non-compliance with no-take marine reserves.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David H Williamson

    Full Text Available No-take marine reserves (NTMRs are increasingly being established to conserve or restore biodiversity and to enhance the sustainability of fisheries. Although effectively designed and protected NTMR networks can yield conservation and fishery benefits, reserve effects often fail to manifest in systems where there are high levels of non-compliance by fishers (poaching. Obtaining reliable estimates of NTMR non-compliance can be expensive and logistically challenging, particularly in areas with limited or non-existent resources for conducting surveillance and enforcement. Here we assess the utility of density estimates and re-accumulation rates of derelict (lost and abandoned fishing line as a proxy for fishing effort and NTMR non-compliance on fringing coral reefs in three island groups of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP, Australia. Densities of derelict fishing line were consistently lower on reefs within old (>20 year NTMRs than on non-NTMR reefs (significantly in the Palm and Whitsunday Islands, whereas line densities did not differ significantly between reefs in new NTMRs (5 years of protection and non-NTMR reefs. A manipulative experiment in which derelict fishing lines were removed from a subset of the monitoring sites demonstrated that lines re-accumulated on NTMR reefs at approximately one third (32.4% of the rate observed on non-NTMR reefs over a thirty-two month period. Although these inshore NTMRs have long been considered some of the best protected within the GBRMP, evidence presented here suggests that the level of non-compliance with NTMR regulations is higher than previously assumed.

  10. A new estimation of the total flavonoids in silkworm cocoon sericin layer through aglycone determination by hydrolysis-assisted extraction and HPLC-DAD analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin-Ge Zhao

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Silk sericin and a few non-protein components isolated from the cocoon layer including two silk proteins in silkworm Bombyx mori has many bioactivities. The dietary sericin possess antinatural oxidation, anticancer, antihyperlipidemic, and antidiabetic activities. The non-protein components surrounding the sericin layer involve in wax, pigments mainly meaning flavonoids, sugars, and other impurities. However, very few investigations have reported the estimation of the total flavonoids derived from the cocoon layer. The flavonoids are commonly present in their glycosylated forms and mostly exist as quercetin glycosides in the sericin layers of silkworm cocoons. Objective: The aim of this study was to find a more accurate method to estimate the level of the total flavonoids in silkworm cocoons. Design: An efficient procedure of hydrolysis-assisted extraction (HAE was first established to estimate the level of the total flavonoids through the determination of their aglycones, quercetin, and kaempferol. Then, a comparison was made between traditional colorimetric method and our method. In addition, the antioxidant activities of hydrolysis-assisted extract sample were determined. Results: The average contents of quercetin and kaempferol were 1.98 and 0.42 mg/g in Daizo cocoon. Their recoveries were 99.56 and 99.17%. The total sum of quercetin and kaempferol was detected to be 2.40±0.07 mg/g by HAE-HPLC, while the total flavonoids (2.59±0.48 mg/g estimated by the traditional colorimetric method were only equivalent to 1.28±0.04 mg/g of quercetin. The HAE sample also exhibits that IC50 values of scavenging ability of diphenyl picryl hydrazinyl (DPPH radical and hydroxyl radical (HO· are 243.63 µg/mL and 4.89 mg/mL, respectively. Conclusions: These results show that the HAE-HPLC method is specificity of cocoon and far superior to the colorimetric method. Therefore, this study has profound significance for the comprehensive utilization

  11. Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deborah P. Shutt

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015/2016 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification. The model indicated that a country-level analysis was not appropriate for Colombia. We then estimated the basic reproduction number to range between 4 and 6 for El Salvador and Suriname with a median of 4.3 and 5.3, respectively. We estimated the reporting rate to be around 16% in El Salvador and 18% in Suriname with estimated total outbreak sizes of 73,395 and 21,647 people, respectively. The uncertainty in parameter estimates highlights a need for research and data collection that will better constrain parameter ranges.

  12. Total body height estimation using sacrum height in Anatolian Caucasians: multidetector computed tomography-based virtual anthropometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karakas, Hakki Muammer; Celbis, Osman; Harma, Ahmet; Alicioglu, Banu

    2011-01-01

    Estimation of total body height is a major step when a subject has to be identified from his/her skeletal structures. In the presence of decomposed skeletons and missing bones, estimation is usually based on regression equation for intact long bones. If these bones are fragmented or missing, alternative structures must be used. In this study, the value of sacrum height (SH) in total body height (TBH) estimation was investigated in a contemporary population of adult Anatolian Caucasians. Sixty-six men (41.6 ± 14.9 years) and 43 women (41.1 ± 14.2 years) were scanned with 64-row multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) to obtain high-resolution anthropometric data. SH of midsagittal sections was electronically measured. The technique and methodology were validated on a standard skeletal model. Sacrum height was 111.2 ± 12.6 mm (77-138 mm) in men and 104.7 ± 8.2 (89-125 mm) in women. The difference between the two sexes regarding SH was significant (p < 0.0001). SH did not significantly correlate with age in men, whereas the correlation was significant in women (p < 0.03). The correlation between SH and the stature was significant in men (r = 0.427, p < 0.0001) and was insignificant in women. For men the regression equation was [Stature = (0.306 x SH)+137.9] (r = 0.54, SEE = 56.9, p < 0.0001). Sacrum height is not susceptible to sex, or to age in men. In the presence of incomplete male skeletons, SH helps to determine the stature. This study is also one of the initial applications of MDCT in virtual anthropometric research. (orig.)

  13. Total body height estimation using sacrum height in Anatolian Caucasians: multidetector computed tomography-based virtual anthropometry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karakas, Hakki Muammer [Inonu University Medical Faculty, Turgut Ozal Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Malatya (Turkey); Celbis, Osman [Inonu University Medical Faculty Turgut Ozal Medical Center, Department of Forensic Medicine, Malatya (Turkey); Harma, Ahmet [Inonu University Medical Faculty Turgut Ozal Medical Center, Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Malatya (Turkey); Alicioglu, Banu [Trakya University Medical Faculty, Department of Radiology, Edirne (Turkey); Trakya University Health Sciences Institute, Department of Anatomy, Edirne (Turkey)

    2011-05-15

    Estimation of total body height is a major step when a subject has to be identified from his/her skeletal structures. In the presence of decomposed skeletons and missing bones, estimation is usually based on regression equation for intact long bones. If these bones are fragmented or missing, alternative structures must be used. In this study, the value of sacrum height (SH) in total body height (TBH) estimation was investigated in a contemporary population of adult Anatolian Caucasians. Sixty-six men (41.6 {+-} 14.9 years) and 43 women (41.1 {+-} 14.2 years) were scanned with 64-row multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) to obtain high-resolution anthropometric data. SH of midsagittal sections was electronically measured. The technique and methodology were validated on a standard skeletal model. Sacrum height was 111.2 {+-} 12.6 mm (77-138 mm) in men and 104.7 {+-} 8.2 (89-125 mm) in women. The difference between the two sexes regarding SH was significant (p < 0.0001). SH did not significantly correlate with age in men, whereas the correlation was significant in women (p < 0.03). The correlation between SH and the stature was significant in men (r = 0.427, p < 0.0001) and was insignificant in women. For men the regression equation was [Stature = (0.306 x SH)+137.9] (r = 0.54, SEE = 56.9, p < 0.0001). Sacrum height is not susceptible to sex, or to age in men. In the presence of incomplete male skeletons, SH helps to determine the stature. This study is also one of the initial applications of MDCT in virtual anthropometric research. (orig.)

  14. A regional mass balance model based on total ammoniacal nitrogen for estimating ammonia emissions from beef cattle in Alberta Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chai, Lilong; Kröbel, Roland; Janzen, H. Henry; Beauchemin, Karen A.; McGinn, Sean M.; Bittman, Shabtai; Atia, Atta; Edeogu, Ike; MacDonald, Douglas; Dong, Ruilan

    2014-08-01

    Animal feeding operations are primary contributors of anthropogenic ammonia (NH3) emissions in North America and Europe. Mathematical modeling of NH3 volatilization from each stage of livestock manure management allows comprehensive quantitative estimates of emission sources and nutrient losses. A regionally-specific mass balance model based on total ammoniacal nitrogen (TAN) content in animal manure was developed for estimating NH3 emissions from beef farming operations in western Canada. Total N excretion in urine and feces was estimated from animal diet composition, feed dry matter intake and N utilization for beef cattle categories and production stages. Mineralization of organic N, immobilization of TAN, nitrification, and denitrification of N compounds in manure, were incorporated into the model to account for quantities of TAN at each stage of manure handling. Ammonia emission factors were specified for different animal housing (feedlots, barns), grazing, manure storage (including composting and stockpiling) and land spreading (tilled and untilled land), and were modified for temperature. The model computed NH3 emissions from all beef cattle sub-classes including cows, calves, breeding bulls, steers for slaughter, and heifers for slaughter and replacement. Estimated NH3 emissions were about 1.11 × 105 Mg NH3 in Alberta in 2006, with a mean of 18.5 kg animal-1 yr-1 (15.2 kg NH3-N animal-1 yr-1) which is 23.5% of the annual N intake of beef cattle (64.7 kg animal-1 yr-1). The percentage of N intake volatilized as NH3-N was 50% for steers and heifers for slaughter, and between 11 and 14% for all other categories. Steers and heifers for slaughter were the two largest contributors (3.5 × 104 and 3.9 × 104 Mg, respectively) at 31.5 and 32.7% of total NH3 emissions because most growing animals were finished in feedlots. Animal housing and grazing contributed roughly 63% of the total NH3 emissions (feedlots, barns and pastures contributed 54.4, 0.2 and 8.1% of

  15. Cancer risk estimates from radiation therapy for heterotopic ossification prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mazonakis, Michalis; Berris, Theoharris; Damilakis, John [Department of Medical Physics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Crete, P.O. Box 2208, 71003 Iraklion, Crete (Greece); Lyraraki, Efrossyni [Department of Radiotherapy and Oncology, University Hospital of Iraklion, 71110 Iraklion, Crete (Greece)

    2013-10-15

    Purpose: Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent complication following total hip arthroplasty. This study was conducted to calculate the radiation dose to organs-at-risk and estimate the probability of cancer induction from radiotherapy for HO prophylaxis.Methods: Hip irradiation for HO with a 6 MV photon beam was simulated with the aid of a Monte Carlo model. A realistic humanoid phantom representing an average adult patient was implemented in Monte Carlo environment for dosimetric calculations. The average out-of-field radiation dose to stomach, liver, lung, prostate, bladder, thyroid, breast, uterus, and ovary was calculated. The organ-equivalent-dose to colon, that was partly included within the treatment field, was also determined. Organ dose calculations were carried out using three different field sizes. The dependence of organ doses upon the block insertion into primary beam for shielding colon and prosthesis was investigated. The lifetime attributable risk for cancer development was estimated using organ, age, and gender-specific risk coefficients.Results: For a typical target dose of 7 Gy, organ doses varied from 1.0 to 741.1 mGy by the field dimensions and organ location relative to the field edge. Blocked field irradiations resulted in a dose range of 1.4–146.3 mGy. The most probable detriment from open field treatment of male patients was colon cancer with a high risk of 564.3 × 10{sup −5} to 837.4 × 10{sup −5} depending upon the organ dose magnitude and the patient's age. The corresponding colon cancer risk for female patients was (372.2–541.0) × 10{sup −5}. The probability of bladder cancer development was more than 113.7 × 10{sup −5} and 110.3 × 10{sup −5} for males and females, respectively. The cancer risk range to other individual organs was reduced to (0.003–68.5) × 10{sup −5}.Conclusions: The risk for cancer induction from radiation therapy for HO prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty varies considerably by

  16. Cancer risk estimates from radiation therapy for heterotopic ossification prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazonakis, Michalis; Berris, Theoharris; Damilakis, John; Lyraraki, Efrossyni

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent complication following total hip arthroplasty. This study was conducted to calculate the radiation dose to organs-at-risk and estimate the probability of cancer induction from radiotherapy for HO prophylaxis.Methods: Hip irradiation for HO with a 6 MV photon beam was simulated with the aid of a Monte Carlo model. A realistic humanoid phantom representing an average adult patient was implemented in Monte Carlo environment for dosimetric calculations. The average out-of-field radiation dose to stomach, liver, lung, prostate, bladder, thyroid, breast, uterus, and ovary was calculated. The organ-equivalent-dose to colon, that was partly included within the treatment field, was also determined. Organ dose calculations were carried out using three different field sizes. The dependence of organ doses upon the block insertion into primary beam for shielding colon and prosthesis was investigated. The lifetime attributable risk for cancer development was estimated using organ, age, and gender-specific risk coefficients.Results: For a typical target dose of 7 Gy, organ doses varied from 1.0 to 741.1 mGy by the field dimensions and organ location relative to the field edge. Blocked field irradiations resulted in a dose range of 1.4–146.3 mGy. The most probable detriment from open field treatment of male patients was colon cancer with a high risk of 564.3 × 10 −5 to 837.4 × 10 −5 depending upon the organ dose magnitude and the patient's age. The corresponding colon cancer risk for female patients was (372.2–541.0) × 10 −5 . The probability of bladder cancer development was more than 113.7 × 10 −5 and 110.3 × 10 −5 for males and females, respectively. The cancer risk range to other individual organs was reduced to (0.003–68.5) × 10 −5 .Conclusions: The risk for cancer induction from radiation therapy for HO prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty varies considerably by the treatment parameters, organ

  17. Intraspecies variation in BMR does not affect estimates of early hominin total daily energy expenditure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froehle, Andrew W; Schoeninger, Margaret J

    2006-12-01

    We conducted a meta-analysis of 45 studies reporting basal metabolic rate (BMR) data for Homo sapiens and Pan troglodytes to determine the effects of sex, age, and latitude (a proxy for climate, in humans only). BMR was normalized for body size using fat-free mass in humans and body mass in chimpanzees. We found no effect of sex in either species and no age effect in chimpanzees. In humans, juveniles differed significantly from adults (ANCOVA: P BMR and body size, and used them to predict total daily energy expenditure (TEE) in four early hominin species. Our predictions concur with previous TEE estimates (i.e. Leonard and Robertson: Am J Phys Anthropol 102 (1997) 265-281), and support the conclusion that TEE increased greatly with H. erectus. Our results show that intraspecific variation in BMR does not affect TEE estimates for interspecific comparisons. Comparisons of more closely related groups such as humans and Neandertals, however, may benefit from consideration of this variation. 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  18. Reserving by detailed conditioning on individual claim

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kartikasari, Mujiati Dwi; Effendie, Adhitya Ronnie; Wilandari, Yuciana

    2017-03-01

    The estimation of claim reserves is an important activity in insurance companies to fulfill their liabilities. Recently, reserving method of individual claim have attracted a lot of interest in the actuarial science, which overcome some deficiency of aggregated claim method. This paper explores the Reserving by Detailed Conditioning (RDC) method using all of claim information for reserving with individual claim of liability insurance from an Indonesian general insurance company. Furthermore, we compare it to Chain Ladder and Bornhuetter-Ferguson method.

  19. Innovation in the pharmaceutical industry: New estimates of R&D costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiMasi, Joseph A; Grabowski, Henry G; Hansen, Ronald W

    2016-05-01

    The research and development costs of 106 randomly selected new drugs were obtained from a survey of 10 pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the average pre-tax cost of new drug and biologics development. The costs of compounds abandoned during testing were linked to the costs of compounds that obtained marketing approval. The estimated average out-of-pocket cost per approved new compound is $1395 million (2013 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a real discount rate of 10.5% yields a total pre-approval cost estimate of $2558 million (2013 dollars). When compared to the results of the previous study in this series, total capitalized costs were shown to have increased at an annual rate of 8.5% above general price inflation. Adding an estimate of post-approval R&D costs increases the cost estimate to $2870 million (2013 dollars). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. A "total parameter estimation" method in the varification of distributed hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, M.; Qin, D.; Wang, H.

    2011-12-01

    Conventionally hydrological models are used for runoff or flood forecasting, hence the determination of model parameters are common estimated based on discharge measurements at the catchment outlets. With the advancement in hydrological sciences and computer technology, distributed hydrological models based on the physical mechanism such as SWAT, MIKESHE, and WEP, have gradually become the mainstream models in hydrology sciences. However, the assessments of distributed hydrological models and model parameter determination still rely on runoff and occasionally, groundwater level measurements. It is essential in many countries, including China, to understand the local and regional water cycle: not only do we need to simulate the runoff generation process and for flood forecasting in wet areas, we also need to grasp the water cycle pathways and consumption process of transformation in arid and semi-arid regions for the conservation and integrated water resources management. As distributed hydrological model can simulate physical processes within a catchment, we can get a more realistic representation of the actual water cycle within the simulation model. Runoff is the combined result of various hydrological processes, using runoff for parameter estimation alone is inherits problematic and difficult to assess the accuracy. In particular, in the arid areas, such as the Haihe River Basin in China, runoff accounted for only 17% of the rainfall, and very concentrated during the rainy season from June to August each year. During other months, many of the perennial rivers within the river basin dry up. Thus using single runoff simulation does not fully utilize the distributed hydrological model in arid and semi-arid regions. This paper proposed a "total parameter estimation" method to verify the distributed hydrological models within various water cycle processes, including runoff, evapotranspiration, groundwater, and soil water; and apply it to the Haihe river basin in

  1. Lifetime risk of primary total hip replacement surgery for osteoarthritis from 2003-2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ackerman, Ilana N; Bohensky, Megan A; de Steiger, Richard

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To compare the lifetime risk of total hip replacement surgery (THR) for osteoarthritis (OA) between countries, and over time. METHODS: Data on primary THR procedures performed for OA in 2003 and 2013 were extracted from national arthroplasty registries in Australia, Denmark, Finland, N....... These multi-national risk estimates can inform resource planning for OA service delivery. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved....

  2. Optimization of Photospheric Electric Field Estimates for Accurate Retrieval of Total Magnetic Energy Injection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lumme, E.; Pomoell, J.; Kilpua, E. K. J.

    2017-12-01

    Estimates of the photospheric magnetic, electric, and plasma velocity fields are essential for studying the dynamics of the solar atmosphere, for example through the derivative quantities of Poynting and relative helicity flux and using the fields to obtain the lower boundary condition for data-driven coronal simulations. In this paper we study the performance of a data processing and electric field inversion approach that requires only high-resolution and high-cadence line-of-sight or vector magnetograms, which we obtain from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The approach does not require any photospheric velocity estimates, and the lacking velocity information is compensated for using ad hoc assumptions. We show that the free parameters of these assumptions can be optimized to reproduce the time evolution of the total magnetic energy injection through the photosphere in NOAA AR 11158, when compared to recent state-of-the-art estimates for this active region. However, we find that the relative magnetic helicity injection is reproduced poorly, reaching at best a modest underestimation. We also discuss the effect of some of the data processing details on the results, including the masking of the noise-dominated pixels and the tracking method of the active region, neither of which has received much attention in the literature so far. In most cases the effect of these details is small, but when the optimization of the free parameters of the ad hoc assumptions is considered, a consistent use of the noise mask is required. The results found in this paper imply that the data processing and electric field inversion approach that uses only the photospheric magnetic field information offers a flexible and straightforward way to obtain photospheric magnetic and electric field estimates suitable for practical applications such as coronal modeling studies.

  3. Accuracy of different sensors for the estimation of pollutant concentrations (total suspended solids, total and dissolved chemical oxygen demand) in wastewater and stormwater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepot, Mathieu; Aubin, Jean-Baptiste; Bertrand-Krajewski, Jean-Luc

    2013-01-01

    Many field investigations have used continuous sensors (turbidimeters and/or ultraviolet (UV)-visible spectrophotometers) to estimate with a short time step pollutant concentrations in sewer systems. Few, if any, publications compare the performance of various sensors for the same set of samples. Different surrogate sensors (turbidity sensors, UV-visible spectrophotometer, pH meter, conductivity meter and microwave sensor) were tested to link concentrations of total suspended solids (TSS), total and dissolved chemical oxygen demand (COD), and sensors' outputs. In the combined sewer at the inlet of a wastewater treatment plant, 94 samples were collected during dry weather, 44 samples were collected during wet weather, and 165 samples were collected under both dry and wet weather conditions. From these samples, triplicate standard laboratory analyses were performed and corresponding sensors outputs were recorded. Two outlier detection methods were developed, based, respectively, on the Mahalanobis and Euclidean distances. Several hundred regression models were tested, and the best ones (according to the root mean square error criterion) are presented in order of decreasing performance. No sensor appears as the best one for all three investigated pollutants.

  4. 24 CFR 904.111 - Nonroutine Maintenance Reserve (NRMR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... the annual reserve requirement, and (3) show the total reserve requirements for all the listed items... reserve requirements for 90 days the LHA shall invest the excess in federally insured savings accounts... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Nonroutine Maintenance Reserve...

  5. The Total Deviation Index estimated by Tolerance Intervals to evaluate the concordance of measurement devices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ascaso Carlos

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In an agreement assay, it is of interest to evaluate the degree of agreement between the different methods (devices, instruments or observers used to measure the same characteristic. We propose in this study a technical simplification for inference about the total deviation index (TDI estimate to assess agreement between two devices of normally-distributed measurements and describe its utility to evaluate inter- and intra-rater agreement if more than one reading per subject is available for each device. Methods We propose to estimate the TDI by constructing a probability interval of the difference in paired measurements between devices, and thereafter, we derive a tolerance interval (TI procedure as a natural way to make inferences about probability limit estimates. We also describe how the proposed method can be used to compute bounds of the coverage probability. Results The approach is illustrated in a real case example where the agreement between two instruments, a handle mercury sphygmomanometer device and an OMRON 711 automatic device, is assessed in a sample of 384 subjects where measures of systolic blood pressure were taken twice by each device. A simulation study procedure is implemented to evaluate and compare the accuracy of the approach to two already established methods, showing that the TI approximation produces accurate empirical confidence levels which are reasonably close to the nominal confidence level. Conclusions The method proposed is straightforward since the TDI estimate is derived directly from a probability interval of a normally-distributed variable in its original scale, without further transformations. Thereafter, a natural way of making inferences about this estimate is to derive the appropriate TI. Constructions of TI based on normal populations are implemented in most standard statistical packages, thus making it simpler for any practitioner to implement our proposal to assess agreement.

  6. Estimating the total number of susceptibility variants underlying complex diseases from genome-wide association studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hon-Cheong So

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Recently genome-wide association studies (GWAS have identified numerous susceptibility variants for complex diseases. In this study we proposed several approaches to estimate the total number of variants underlying these diseases. We assume that the variance explained by genetic markers (Vg follow an exponential distribution, which is justified by previous studies on theories of adaptation. Our aim is to fit the observed distribution of Vg from GWAS to its theoretical distribution. The number of variants is obtained by the heritability divided by the estimated mean of the exponential distribution. In practice, due to limited sample sizes, there is insufficient power to detect variants with small effects. Therefore the power was taken into account in fitting. Besides considering the most significant variants, we also tried to relax the significance threshold, allowing more markers to be fitted. The effects of false positive variants were removed by considering the local false discovery rates. In addition, we developed an alternative approach by directly fitting the z-statistics from GWAS to its theoretical distribution. In all cases, the "winner's curse" effect was corrected analytically. Confidence intervals were also derived. Simulations were performed to compare and verify the performance of different estimators (which incorporates various means of winner's curse correction and the coverage of the proposed analytic confidence intervals. Our methodology only requires summary statistics and is able to handle both binary and continuous traits. Finally we applied the methods to a few real disease examples (lipid traits, type 2 diabetes and Crohn's disease and estimated that hundreds to nearly a thousand variants underlie these traits.

  7. SUIKERBOSRAND NATURE RESERVE

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    reserve, the total length being 66 km with six overnight huts. There are also the BokmakiePie. Nature Troil. and the Cheetah Interpretive Troil. which can be used by day visitors. The former has two loops, one of 10 km and another of 17 km. The. Cheetah Troil. is much shorter and various points of interest are interpreted en ...

  8. DNIEPROVSKO-ORELSKIY NATURAL RESERVE AS THE REFUGIUM FOR HERPETOFAUNA IN PRIDNEPROVSK REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Missura A. N.

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Species diversity of herpetofauna of Dnieprovsko-Orel'skiy natural reserve was estimated based on long-term monitoring data; relative species’ abundance was determined as well. The retrospective estimation of amphibious populations in biogeocoenoses was performed for the period before and after creation of nature reserve. We also estimated turnover ratio of species between nature reserve biogeocoenoses and adjacent biotopes with high degree of recreation and urbanization. The data were incorporated into management plan for populations’ abundance stabilization and increasing.

  9. Monitoring of German fertility: Estimation of monthly and yearly total fertility rates on the basis of preliminary monthly data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Doblhammer (Gabriele); Milewski, N. (Nadja); F. Peters (Frederick)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper introduces a set of methods for estimating fertility indicators in the absence of recent and short-term birth statistics. For Germany, we propose a set of straightforward methods that allow for the computation of monthly and yearly total fertility rates (mTFR) on the basis of

  10. Concentration and flux of total and dissolved phosphorus, total nitrogen, chloride, and total suspended solids for monitored tributaries of Lake Champlain, 1990-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medalie, Laura

    2014-01-01

    Annual and daily concentrations and fluxes of total and dissolved phosphorus, total nitrogen, chloride, and total suspended solids were estimated for 18 monitored tributaries to Lake Champlain by using the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Seasons regression model. Estimates were made for 21 or 23 years, depending on data availability, for the purpose of providing timely and accessible summary reports as stipulated in the 2010 update to the Lake Champlain “Opportunities for Action” management plan. Estimates of concentration and flux were provided for each tributary based on (1) observed daily discharges and (2) a flow-normalizing procedure, which removed the random fluctuations of climate-related variability. The flux bias statistic, an indicator of the ability of the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season regression models to provide accurate representations of flux, showed acceptable bias (less than ±10 percent) for 68 out of 72 models for total and dissolved phosphorus, total nitrogen, and chloride. Six out of 18 models for total suspended solids had moderate bias (between 10 and 30 percent), an expected result given the frequently nonlinear relation between total suspended solids and discharge. One model for total suspended solids with a very high bias was influenced by a single extreme value; however, removal of that value, although reducing the bias substantially, had little effect on annual fluxes.

  11. Joint estimation of vertical total electron content (VTEC) and satellite differential code biases (SDCBs) using low-cost receivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Baocheng; Teunissen, Peter J. G.; Yuan, Yunbin; Zhang, Hongxing; Li, Min

    2018-04-01

    Vertical total electron content (VTEC) parameters estimated using global navigation satellite system (GNSS) data are of great interest for ionosphere sensing. Satellite differential code biases (SDCBs) account for one source of error which, if left uncorrected, can deteriorate performance of positioning, timing and other applications. The customary approach to estimate VTEC along with SDCBs from dual-frequency GNSS data, hereinafter referred to as DF approach, consists of two sequential steps. The first step seeks to retrieve ionospheric observables through the carrier-to-code leveling technique. This observable, related to the slant total electron content (STEC) along the satellite-receiver line-of-sight, is biased also by the SDCBs and the receiver differential code biases (RDCBs). By means of thin-layer ionospheric model, in the second step one is able to isolate the VTEC, the SDCBs and the RDCBs from the ionospheric observables. In this work, we present a single-frequency (SF) approach, enabling the joint estimation of VTEC and SDCBs using low-cost receivers; this approach is also based on two steps and it differs from the DF approach only in the first step, where we turn to the precise point positioning technique to retrieve from the single-frequency GNSS data the ionospheric observables, interpreted as the combination of the STEC, the SDCBs and the biased receiver clocks at the pivot epoch. Our numerical analyses clarify how SF approach performs when being applied to GPS L1 data collected by a single receiver under both calm and disturbed ionospheric conditions. The daily time series of zenith VTEC estimates has an accuracy ranging from a few tenths of a TEC unit (TECU) to approximately 2 TECU. For 73-96% of GPS satellites in view, the daily estimates of SDCBs do not deviate, in absolute value, more than 1 ns from their ground truth values published by the Centre for Orbit Determination in Europe.

  12. Reserve Growth in Oil Fields of West Siberian Basin, Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Mahendra K.; Ulmishek, Gregory F.

    2006-01-01

    Although reserve (or field) growth has proven to be an important factor contributing to new reserves in mature petroleum basins, it is still a poorly understood phenomenon. Limited studies show that the magnitude of reserve growth is controlled by several major factors, including (1) the reserve booking and reporting requirements in each country, (2) improvements in reservoir characterization and simulation, (3) application of enhanced oil recovery techniques, and (4) the discovery of new and extensions of known pools in discovered fields. Various combinations of these factors can affect the estimates of proven reserves in particular fields and may dictate repeated estimations of reserves during a field's life. This study explores the reserve growth in the 42 largest oil fields in the West Siberian Basin, which contain about 55 percent of the basin's total oil reserves. The West Siberian Basin occupies a vast swampy plain between the Ural Mountains and the Yenisey River, and extends offshore into the Kara Sea; it is the richest petroleum province in Russia. About 600 oil and gas fields with original reserves of 144 billion barrels of oil (BBO) and more than 1,200 trillion cubic feet of gas (TCFG) have been discovered. The principal oil reserves and most of the oil fields are in the southern half of the basin, whereas the northern half contains mainly gas reserves. Sedimentary strata in the basin consist of Upper Triassic through Tertiary clastic rocks. Most oil is produced from Neocomian (Lower Cretaceous) marine to deltaic sandstone reservoirs, although substantial oil reserves are also in the marine Upper Jurassic and continental to paralic Lower to Middle Jurassic sequences. The majority of oil fields are in structural traps, which are gentle, platform-type anticlines with closures ranging from several tens of meters to as much as 150 meters (490 feet). Fields producing from stratigraphic traps are generally smaller except for the giant Talin field which

  13. IGT calculates world reserves of fossil fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1986-01-01

    The Institute of Gas Technology has published the IGT World Reserves Survey, giving their latest tabulation of world reserves of fossil fuels and uranium. The report contains 120 Tables and 41 Figures. Estimates are provided for proved reserves, resources, current production, and life indexes of the non-renewable energy sources of the US and of the world as a whole. World regional data are also provided in many cases. The data are summarized here. 2 figures, 5 tables

  14. Assessment of renewable energy reserves in Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Falin; Lu, Shyi-Min; Tseng, Kuo-Tung; Wang, Eric; Lee, Si-Chen

    2010-01-01

    Since Taiwan imports more than 99% of energy supply from foreign countries, energy security has always been the first priority for government to formulate energy policy. The development of renewable energy not only contributes to the independence of energy supply, but also achieves benefits of economic development and environmental protection. Based upon information available to public, the present paper reassesses reserves of various renewable energies in Taiwan. The assessment includes seven kinds of renewable energies, namely, solar energy, wind power, biomass energy, wave energy, tidal energy, geothermal energy and hydropower, which are all commercialized and matured in terms of current technologies. Other renewable energies, which have not proven as matured as the aforementioned ones, are only assessed preliminarily in this paper, such as second generation of biomass, deep geothermal energy, the Kuroshio power generation and ocean thermal energy conversion. According to the estimation of this paper, the reserve of wind energy, up to 29.9 kWh/d/p (i.e., kWh per day per person), is the largest one among seven kinds of renewable energies in Taiwan, followed by 24.27 kWh/d/p of solar energy, 4.55 kWh/d/p of biomass, 4.58 kWh/d/p of ocean energy, 0.67 kWh/d/p of geothermal energy and 16.79 kWh/d/p of hydropower. If regarding biomass as a primary energy, and assuming 40% being the average efficiency to convert primary energy into electricity, the total power of the seven kinds of renewable energy reserves is about 78.03 kWh/d/p, which is equal to 2.75 times of 28.35 kWh/d/p of national power generation in 2008. If the reserves of 54.93 kWh/d/p estimated from other four kinds of renewable energies that have not technically matured yet are also taken into account, it will result that the reserves of renewable energy in Taiwan can be quite abundant. Although the results of the assessment point out that Taiwan has abundant renewable energy resources, the four inherent

  15. Comparison of planar, PET and well-counter measurements of total tumor radioactivity in a mouse xenograft model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Michael V; Seidel, Jurgen; Williams, Mark R; Wong, Karen J; Ton, Anita; Basuli, Falguni; Choyke, Peter L; Jagoda, Elaine M

    2017-10-01

    Quantitative small animal radionuclide imaging studies are often carried out with the intention of estimating the total radioactivity content of various tissues such as the radioactivity content of mouse xenograft tumors exposed to putative diagnostic or therapeutic agents. We show that for at least one specific application, positron projection imaging (PPI) and PET yield comparable estimates of absolute total tumor activity and that both of these estimates are highly correlated with direct well-counting of these same tumors. These findings further suggest that in this particular application, PPI is a far more efficient data acquisition and processing methodology than PET. Forty-one athymic mice were implanted with PC3 human prostate cancer cells transfected with prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA (+)) and one additional animal (for a total of 42) with a control blank vector (PSMA (-)). All animals were injected with [ 18 F] DCFPyl, a ligand for PSMA, and imaged for total tumor radioactivity with PET and PPI. The tumors were then removed, assayed by well counting for total radioactivity and the values between these methods intercompared. PET, PPI and well-counter estimates of total tumor radioactivity were highly correlated (R 2 >0.98) with regression line slopes near unity (0.95radioactivity can be measured with PET or PPI with an accuracy comparable to well counting if certain experimental and pharmacokinetic conditions are met. In this particular application, PPI is significantly more efficient than PET in making these measurements. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Effect of heavy metals on the level of vitamin E, total lipid and glycogen reserves in the liver of common carp (Cyprinus carpio L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinodhini Rajamanickam

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to examine some changes in the biochemical profile of the liver tissue of common carp (Cyprinus carpio L. exposed to a sublethal concentration of heavy metal mixture (cadmium, chromium, nickel and lead. The biochemical profile, specifically glycogen, total lipid and vitamin E content in the liver tissue was examined and compared to that of the control group. The exposed group showed a marked decline in glycogen and vitamin E reserves. Conversely an increase in total lipid in comparison to control was observed. The result reflects the sensitivity of these biochemical parameters to the effects of sublethal levels of combined heavy metals for this the widely consumed freshwater fish.

  17. Substantiating the Incurred but not Reported Reserve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgeta Vintilã

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to handle past and future liability taken by insurance contracts concluded, any insurance company must constitute and maintain technical reserves. Substantiating technical reserves is done through actuarial methods and its over-evaluation or under-evaluation influence solvency and financial performance of the insurance companies, in the sense of reducing solvency through over-evaluating reserves and, respectively, influencing profit (hence of outstanding tax through under-evaluating reserves. An important reserve for insurance companies is represented by the incurred but not reported reserve, as it allows the estimation of the liability the company may confront in the future, generated by events occurred in the past, which are not currently known in the present but will be reported in the future.

  18. Comparison of compensatory reserve during lower-body negative pressure and hemorrhage in nonhuman primates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinojosa-Laborde, Carmen; Howard, Jeffrey T; Mulligan, Jane; Grudic, Greg Z; Convertino, Victor A

    2016-06-01

    Compensatory reserve was measured in baboons (n = 13) during hemorrhage (Hem) and lower-body negative pressure (LBNP) using a machine-learning algorithm developed to estimate compensatory reserve by detecting reductions in central blood volume during LBNP. The algorithm calculates compensatory reserve index (CRI) from normovolemia (CRI = 1) to cardiovascular decompensation (CRI = 0). The hypothesis was that Hem and LBNP will elicit similar CRI values and that CRI would have higher specificity than stroke volume (SV) in predicting decompensation. Blood was removed in four steps: 6.25%, 12.5%, 18.75%, and 25% of total blood volume. Four weeks after Hem, the same animals were subjected to four levels of LBNP that was matched on the basis of their central venous pressure. Data (mean ± 95% confidence interval) indicate that CRI decreased (P AUC in Hem (0.94 vs. 0.84) and LBNP (0.94 vs. 0.92). These data support the hypothesis that Hem and LBNP elicited the same CRI response, suggesting that measurement of compensatory reserve is superior to SV as a predictor of cardiovascular decompensation.

  19. Uranium reserves fall: AAEC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    Figures released by the AAEC show that Australia's reasonably assured resources of uranium recoverable at US$80 a kg fell by 5,000 tonnes during 1980-81. Reserves at 30 June 1981 totalled 294,000 tonnes. This represented 17 per cent of the Western World's low cost reasonably assured resources

  20. Estimating Global Seafloor Total Organic Carbon Using a Machine Learning Technique and Its Relevance to Methane Hydrates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, T. R.; Wood, W. T.; Dale, J.

    2017-12-01

    Empirical and theoretical models of sub-seafloor organic matter transformation, degradation and methanogenesis require estimates of initial seafloor total organic carbon (TOC). This subsurface methane, under the appropriate geophysical and geochemical conditions may manifest as methane hydrate deposits. Despite the importance of seafloor TOC, actual observations of TOC in the world's oceans are sparse and large regions of the seafloor yet remain unmeasured. To provide an estimate in areas where observations are limited or non-existent, we have implemented interpolation techniques that rely on existing data sets. Recent geospatial analyses have provided accurate accounts of global geophysical and geochemical properties (e.g. crustal heat flow, seafloor biomass, porosity) through machine learning interpolation techniques. These techniques find correlations between the desired quantity (in this case TOC) and other quantities (predictors, e.g. bathymetry, distance from coast, etc.) that are more widely known. Predictions (with uncertainties) of seafloor TOC in regions lacking direct observations are made based on the correlations. Global distribution of seafloor TOC at 1 x 1 arc-degree resolution was estimated from a dataset of seafloor TOC compiled by Seiter et al. [2004] and a non-parametric (i.e. data-driven) machine learning algorithm, specifically k-nearest neighbors (KNN). Built-in predictor selection and a ten-fold validation technique generated statistically optimal estimates of seafloor TOC and uncertainties. In addition, inexperience was estimated. Inexperience is effectively the distance in parameter space to the single nearest neighbor, and it indicates geographic locations where future data collection would most benefit prediction accuracy. These improved geospatial estimates of TOC in data deficient areas will provide new constraints on methane production and subsequent methane hydrate accumulation.

  1. Association of coronary ischemia estimated by fractional flow reserve and psychological characteristics of patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miodrag Jovan Sreckovic

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction : Psychological characteristics of patients, depression, stress and anxiety are recognized as important confounding risk factors for ischemic heart disease. However, the impact of psychological characteristics on coronary ischemia and vice versa remain poorly understood. Aim: To demonstrate the interplay of psychological characteristics, depression, stress and anxiety with coronary ischemia estimated with fractional flow reserve (FFR. Material and methods : From 2014 to 2016, 147 patients who were planned for FFR measurement were included in this study. Psychological characteristics of patients were evaluated using the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale 21 items (DASS 21 self-report questionnaire. Results : Comparing the FFR ischemic vs. FFR non-ischemic groups, a significant difference was observed regarding results achieved for the depression, anxiety and stress scales. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to model the correlation between FFR and the DAS scale. It was clear, when controlling for previous myocardial infarction, that FFR was significant in all analyses. However, when the Canadian Cardiovascular Society grading of angina pectoris (CCS class was entered in the model, FFR was not a significant predictor of anxiety, but was significant in other analysis. Conclusions : Higher degrees of the psychological characteristics depression, stress and anxiety were observed in the group of patients with coronary ischemia, corresponding to lower fractional flow values.

  2. The cost of Alzheimer's disease in China and re-estimation of costs worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Jianping; Wei, Cuibai; Chen, Shuoqi; Li, Fangyu; Tang, Yi; Qin, Wei; Zhao, Lina; Jin, Hongmei; Xu, Hui; Wang, Fen; Zhou, Aihong; Zuo, Xiumei; Wu, Liyong; Han, Ying; Han, Yue; Huang, Liyuan; Wang, Qi; Li, Dan; Chu, Changbiao; Shi, Lu; Gong, Min; Du, Yifeng; Zhang, Jiewen; Zhang, Junjian; Zhou, Chunkui; Lv, Jihui; Lv, Yang; Xie, Haiqun; Ji, Yong; Li, Fang; Yu, Enyan; Luo, Benyan; Wang, Yanjiang; Yang, Shanshan; Qu, Qiumin; Guo, Qihao; Liang, Furu; Zhang, Jintao; Tan, Lan; Shen, Lu; Zhang, Kunnan; Zhang, Jinbiao; Peng, Dantao; Tang, Muni; Lv, Peiyuan; Fang, Boyan; Chu, Lan; Jia, Longfei; Gauthier, Serge

    2018-04-01

    The socioeconomic costs of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in China and its impact on global economic burden remain uncertain. We collected data from 3098 patients with AD in 81 representative centers across China and estimated AD costs for individual patient and total patients in China in 2015. Based on this data, we re-estimated the worldwide costs of AD. The annual socioeconomic cost per patient was US $19,144.36, and total costs were US $167.74 billion in 2015. The annual total costs are predicted to reach US $507.49 billion in 2030 and US $1.89 trillion in 2050. Based on our results, the global estimates of costs for dementia were US $957.56 billion in 2015, and will be US $2.54 trillion in 2030, and US $9.12 trillion in 2050, much more than the predictions by the World Alzheimer Report 2015. China bears a heavy burden of AD costs, which greatly change the estimates of AD cost worldwide. Copyright © 2017 the Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. A meta-regression analysis of 41 Australian problem gambling prevalence estimates and their relationship to total spending on electronic gaming machines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis Markham

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many jurisdictions regularly conduct surveys to estimate the prevalence of problem gambling in their adult populations. However, the comparison of such estimates is problematic due to methodological variations between studies. Total consumption theory suggests that an association between mean electronic gaming machine (EGM and casino gambling losses and problem gambling prevalence estimates may exist. If this is the case, then changes in EGM losses may be used as a proxy indicator for changes in problem gambling prevalence. To test for this association this study examines the relationship between aggregated losses on electronic gaming machines (EGMs and problem gambling prevalence estimates for Australian states and territories between 1994 and 2016. Methods A Bayesian meta-regression analysis of 41 cross-sectional problem gambling prevalence estimates was undertaken using EGM gambling losses, year of survey and methodological variations as predictor variables. General population studies of adults in Australian states and territory published before 1 July 2016 were considered in scope. 41 studies were identified, with a total of 267,367 participants. Problem gambling prevalence, moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence, problem gambling screen, administration mode and frequency threshold were extracted from surveys. Administrative data on EGM and casino gambling loss data were extracted from government reports and expressed as the proportion of household disposable income lost. Results Money lost on EGMs is correlated with problem gambling prevalence. An increase of 1% of household disposable income lost on EGMs and in casinos was associated with problem gambling prevalence estimates that were 1.33 times higher [95% credible interval 1.04, 1.71]. There was no clear association between EGM losses and moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates. Moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates were not explained by

  4. A meta-regression analysis of 41 Australian problem gambling prevalence estimates and their relationship to total spending on electronic gaming machines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markham, Francis; Young, Martin; Doran, Bruce; Sugden, Mark

    2017-05-23

    Many jurisdictions regularly conduct surveys to estimate the prevalence of problem gambling in their adult populations. However, the comparison of such estimates is problematic due to methodological variations between studies. Total consumption theory suggests that an association between mean electronic gaming machine (EGM) and casino gambling losses and problem gambling prevalence estimates may exist. If this is the case, then changes in EGM losses may be used as a proxy indicator for changes in problem gambling prevalence. To test for this association this study examines the relationship between aggregated losses on electronic gaming machines (EGMs) and problem gambling prevalence estimates for Australian states and territories between 1994 and 2016. A Bayesian meta-regression analysis of 41 cross-sectional problem gambling prevalence estimates was undertaken using EGM gambling losses, year of survey and methodological variations as predictor variables. General population studies of adults in Australian states and territory published before 1 July 2016 were considered in scope. 41 studies were identified, with a total of 267,367 participants. Problem gambling prevalence, moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence, problem gambling screen, administration mode and frequency threshold were extracted from surveys. Administrative data on EGM and casino gambling loss data were extracted from government reports and expressed as the proportion of household disposable income lost. Money lost on EGMs is correlated with problem gambling prevalence. An increase of 1% of household disposable income lost on EGMs and in casinos was associated with problem gambling prevalence estimates that were 1.33 times higher [95% credible interval 1.04, 1.71]. There was no clear association between EGM losses and moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates. Moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates were not explained by the models (I 2  ≥ 0.97; R 2  ≤ 0.01). The

  5. Handbook on loss reserving

    CERN Document Server

    Schmidt, Klaus; Schnaus, Anja

    2016-01-01

    This handbook presents the basic aspects of actuarial loss reserving. Besides the traditional methods, it also includes a description of more recent ones and a discussion of certain problems occurring in actuarial practice, like inflation, scarce data, large claims, slow loss development, the use of market statistics, the need for simulation techniques and the task of calculating best estimates and ranges of future losses. In property and casualty insurance the provisions for payment obligations from losses that have occurred but have not yet been settled usually constitute the largest item on the liabilities side of an insurer's balance sheet. For this reason, the determination and evaluation of these loss reserves is of considerable economic importance for every property and casualty insurer. Actuarial students, academics as well as practicing actuaries will benefit from this overview of the most important actuarial methods of loss reserving by developing an understanding of the underlying stochastic models...

  6. An Online Evaluation of Operating Reserve for System Security

    OpenAIRE

    Le-Ren Chang-Chien; Yin-Juin Lin; Chin-Chung Wu

    2007-01-01

    Utilities use operating reserve for frequency regulation.To ensure that the operating frequency and system security are well maintained, the operating grid codes always specify that the reserve quantity and response rate should meet some prescribed levels. This paper proposes a methodology to evaluate system's contingency reserve for an isolated power network. With the presented algorithm to estimate system's frequency response characteristic, an online allocation of contingency reserve would...

  7. A Total Force Model for Training the Army’s Reserve Components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-06-06

    compared with his subsequent observation that his conversations with Guardsmen -| 6.3 disclosed their " adamant position" against the idea. 1 22 He...loyalty to the Guard and their -se no.- their ability to perform state missions. BG Ansel ’i r., Assistant Adjutant General of Louisiana and4 "now 64...Command," pp. 6-7. 1 2 3 1bid. 124Helen K. Ellsworth, "ROUND-OUT: Linking Active and Reserve," Soldiers Magazine, April 1980, p. 11. 1 25 Ansel M

  8. Menstrual cycle length: a surrogate measure of reproductive health capable of improving the accuracy of biochemical/sonographical ovarian reserve test in estimating the reproductive chances of women referred to ART.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gizzo, Salvatore; Andrisani, Alessandra; Noventa, Marco; Quaranta, Michela; Esposito, Federica; Armanini, Decio; Gangemi, Michele; Nardelli, Giovanni B; Litta, Pietro; D'Antona, Donato; Ambrosini, Guido

    2015-04-10

    Aim of the study was to investigate whether menstrual cycle length may be considered as a surrogate measure of reproductive health, improving the accuracy of biochemical/sonographical ovarian reserve test in estimating the reproductive chances of women referred to ART. A retrospective-observational-study in Padua' public tertiary level Centre was conducted. A total of 455 normo-ovulatory infertile women scheduled for their first fresh non-donor IVF/ICSI treatment. The mean menstrual cycle length (MCL) during the preceding 6 months was calculated by physicians on the basis of information contained in our electronic database (first day of menstrual cycle collected every month by telephonic communication by single patients). We evaluated the relations between MCL, ovarian response to stimulation protocol, oocytes fertilization ratio, ovarian sensitivity index (OSI) and pregnancy rate in different cohorts of patients according to the class of age and the estimated ovarian reserve. In women younger than 35 years, MCL over 31 days may be associated with an increased risk of OHSS and with a good OSI. In women older than 35 years, and particularly than 40 years, MCL shortening may be considered as a marker of ovarian aging and may be associated with poor ovarian response, low OSI and reduced fertilization rate. When AMH serum value is lower than 1.1 ng/ml in patients older than 40 years, MCL may help Clinicians discriminate real from expected poor responders. Considering the pool of normoresponders, MCL was not correlated with pregnancy rate while a positive association was found with patients' age. MCL diary is more predictive than chronological age in estimating ovarian biological age and response to COH and it is more predictive than AMH in discriminating expected from real poor responders. In women older than 35 years MCL shortening may be considered as a marker of ovarian aging while chronological age remains most accurate parameter in predicting pregnancy.

  9. Adoption of an unmanned helicopter for low-altitude remote sensing to estimate yield and total biomass of a rice crop

    Science.gov (United States)

    A radio-controlled unmanned helicopter-based LARS (Low-Altitude Remote Sensing) platform was used to acquire quality images of high spatial and temporal resolution, in order to estimate yield and total biomass of a rice crop (Oriza Sativa, L.). Fifteen rice field plots with five N-treatments (0, 33,...

  10. Monte Carlo estimation of total variation distance of Markov chains on large spaces, with application to phylogenetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbei, Radu; Kubatko, Laura

    2013-03-26

    Markov chains are widely used for modeling in many areas of molecular biology and genetics. As the complexity of such models advances, it becomes increasingly important to assess the rate at which a Markov chain converges to its stationary distribution in order to carry out accurate inference. A common measure of convergence to the stationary distribution is the total variation distance, but this measure can be difficult to compute when the state space of the chain is large. We propose a Monte Carlo method to estimate the total variation distance that can be applied in this situation, and we demonstrate how the method can be efficiently implemented by taking advantage of GPU computing techniques. We apply the method to two Markov chains on the space of phylogenetic trees, and discuss the implications of our findings for the development of algorithms for phylogenetic inference.

  11. Dual-joint modeling for estimation of total knee replacement contact forces during locomotion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hast, Michael W; Piazza, Stephen J

    2013-02-01

    Model-based estimation of in vivo contact forces arising between components of a total knee replacement is challenging because such forces depend upon accurate modeling of muscles, tendons, ligaments, contact, and multibody dynamics. Here we describe an approach to solving this problem with results that are tested by comparison to knee loads measured in vivo for a single subject and made available through the Grand Challenge Competition to Predict in vivo Tibiofemoral Loads. The approach makes use of a "dual-joint" paradigm in which the knee joint is alternately represented by (1) a ball-joint knee for inverse dynamic computation of required muscle controls and (2) a 12 degree-of-freedom (DOF) knee with elastic foundation contact at the tibiofemoral and patellofemoral articulations for forward dynamic integration. Measured external forces and kinematics were applied as a feedback controller and static optimization attempted to track measured knee flexion angles and electromyographic (EMG) activity. The resulting simulations showed excellent tracking of knee flexion (average RMS error of 2.53 deg) and EMG (muscle activations within ±10% envelopes of normalized measured EMG signals). Simulated tibiofemoral contact forces agreed qualitatively with measured contact forces, but their RMS errors were approximately 25% of the peak measured values. These results demonstrate the potential of a dual-joint modeling approach to predict joint contact forces from kinesiological data measured in the motion laboratory. It is anticipated that errors in the estimation of contact force will be reduced as more accurate subject-specific models of muscles and other soft tissues are developed.

  12. Determination of fractional flow reserve (FFR) based on scaling laws: a simulation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, Jerry T; Molloi, Sabee

    2008-01-01

    Fractional flow reserve (FFR) provides an objective physiological evaluation of stenosis severity. A technique that can measure FFR using only angiographic images would be a valuable tool in the cardiac catheterization laboratory. To perform this, the diseased blood flow can be measured with a first pass distribution analysis and the theoretical normal blood flow can be estimated from the total coronary arterial volume based on scaling laws. A computer simulation of the coronary arterial network was used to gain a better understanding of how hemodynamic conditions and coronary artery disease can affect blood flow, arterial volume and FFR estimation. Changes in coronary arterial flow and volume due to coronary stenosis, aortic pressure and venous pressure were examined to evaluate the potential use of flow and volume for FFR determination. This study showed that FFR can be estimated using arterial volume and a scaling coefficient corrected for aortic pressure. However, variations in venous pressure were found to introduce some error in FFR estimation. A relative form of FFR was introduced and was found to cancel out the influence of pressure on coronary flow, arterial volume and FFR estimation. The use of coronary flow and arterial volume for FFR determination appears promising

  13. Tolerance to bovine clinical mastitis: Total, direct, and indirect milk losses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detilleux, J

    2018-04-01

    The objectives of this paper were to estimate direct and indirect milk losses associated with mastitis. Indirect losses, linked to indirect tolerance, are mediated by the increase in milk somatic cell count (SCC) in response to bacterial infection. Direct losses, linked to weak direct tolerance, are not mediated by the increase in SCC. So far, studies have evaluated milk loss associated with clinical mastitis without considering both components, which may lead to biased estimates of their sum; that is, the total loss in milk. A total of 43,903 test-day records on milk and SCC from 3,716 cows and 5,858 lactations were analyzed with mediation mixed models and health trajectories to estimate the amount of direct, indirect, and total milk losses after adjustment for known and potentially unmeasured (sensitivity analyses) confounding factors. Estimates were formalized under the counterfactual causal theory of causation. In this study, milk losses were mostly mediated by an increase in SCC. They were highest in the first month of lactation, when SCC were highest. Milk losses were estimated at 0.5, 0.8, and 1.1 kg/d in first, second, and third and greater parity, respectively. Two phases described how changes in milk were associated with changes in SCC: on average, one occurred before and one after the day preceding the clinical diagnosis. In both phases, changes in milk were estimated at 1 mg/d per 10 3 cells/mL. After adjusting for known confounders, cow effect accounted for 20.7 and 64.2% of the variation in milk in the first and second phases, respectively. This suggests that deviations from the resilient path were highest during the second phase of inflammation and that selection for cows more tolerant to mastitis is feasible. As discussed herein, epigenetic regulation of macrophage polarization may contribute to the variation in milk observed in the second phase. Copyright © 2018 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Estimation of Total Nitrogen and Phosphorus in New England Streams Using Spatially Referenced Regression Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Richard Bridge; Johnston, Craig M.; Robinson, Keith W.; Deacon, Jeffrey R.

    2004-01-01

    phosphorus model include discharges for municipal wastewater-treatment facilities and pulp and paper facilities, developed land area, agricultural area, and forested area. For total phosphorus, loss rates were significant for reservoirs with surface areas of 10 square kilometers or less, and in streams with flows less than or equal to 2.83 cubic meters per second. Applications of SPARROW for evaluating nutrient loading in New England waters include estimates of the spatial distributions of total nitrogen and phosphorus yields, sources of the nutrients, and the potential for delivery of those yields to receiving waters. This information can be used to (1) predict ranges in nutrient levels in surface waters, (2) identify the environmental variables that are statistically significant predictors of nutrient levels in streams, (3) evaluate monitoring efforts for better determination of nutrient loads, and (4) evaluate management options for reducing nutrient loads to achieve water-quality goals.

  15. Effect of Antihypertensive Therapy on SCORE-Estimated Total Cardiovascular Risk: Results from an Open-Label, Multinational Investigation—The POWER Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guy De Backer

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. High blood pressure is a substantial risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Design & Methods. The Physicians' Observational Work on patient Education according to their vascular Risk (POWER survey was an open-label investigation of eprosartan-based therapy (EBT for control of high blood pressure in primary care centers in 16 countries. A prespecified element of this research was appraisal of the impact of EBT on estimated 10-year risk of a fatal cardiovascular event as determined by the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE model. Results. SCORE estimates of CVD risk were obtained at baseline from 12,718 patients in 15 countries (6504 men and from 9577 patients at 6 months. During EBT mean (±SD systolic/diastolic blood pressures declined from 160.2 ± 13.7/94.1 ± 9.1 mmHg to 134.5 ± 11.2/81.4 ± 7.4 mmHg. This was accompanied by a 38% reduction in mean SCORE-estimated CVD risk and an improvement in SCORE risk classification of one category or more in 3506 patients (36.6%. Conclusion. Experience in POWER affirms that (a effective pharmacological control of blood pressure is feasible in the primary care setting and is accompanied by a reduction in total CVD risk and (b the SCORE instrument is effective in this setting for the monitoring of total CVD risk.

  16. Effect of Antihypertensive Therapy on SCORE-Estimated Total Cardiovascular Risk: Results from an Open-Label, Multinational Investigation—The POWER Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Backer, Guy; Petrella, Robert J.; Goudev, Assen R.; Radaideh, Ghazi Ahmad; Rynkiewicz, Andrzej; Pathak, Atul

    2013-01-01

    Background. High blood pressure is a substantial risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Design & Methods. The Physicians' Observational Work on patient Education according to their vascular Risk (POWER) survey was an open-label investigation of eprosartan-based therapy (EBT) for control of high blood pressure in primary care centers in 16 countries. A prespecified element of this research was appraisal of the impact of EBT on estimated 10-year risk of a fatal cardiovascular event as determined by the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) model. Results. SCORE estimates of CVD risk were obtained at baseline from 12,718 patients in 15 countries (6504 men) and from 9577 patients at 6 months. During EBT mean (±SD) systolic/diastolic blood pressures declined from 160.2 ± 13.7/94.1 ± 9.1 mmHg to 134.5 ± 11.2/81.4 ± 7.4 mmHg. This was accompanied by a 38% reduction in mean SCORE-estimated CVD risk and an improvement in SCORE risk classification of one category or more in 3506 patients (36.6%). Conclusion. Experience in POWER affirms that (a) effective pharmacological control of blood pressure is feasible in the primary care setting and is accompanied by a reduction in total CVD risk and (b) the SCORE instrument is effective in this setting for the monitoring of total CVD risk. PMID:23997946

  17. Robust total energy demand estimation with a hybrid Variable Neighborhood Search – Extreme Learning Machine algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sánchez-Oro, J.; Duarte, A.; Salcedo-Sanz, S.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The total energy demand in Spain is estimated with a Variable Neighborhood algorithm. • Socio-economic variables are used, and one year ahead prediction horizon is considered. • Improvement of the prediction with an Extreme Learning Machine network is considered. • Experiments are carried out in real data for the case of Spain. - Abstract: Energy demand prediction is an important problem whose solution is evaluated by policy makers in order to take key decisions affecting the economy of a country. A number of previous approaches to improve the quality of this estimation have been proposed in the last decade, the majority of them applying different machine learning techniques. In this paper, the performance of a robust hybrid approach, composed of a Variable Neighborhood Search algorithm and a new class of neural network called Extreme Learning Machine, is discussed. The Variable Neighborhood Search algorithm is focused on obtaining the most relevant features among the set of initial ones, by including an exponential prediction model. While previous approaches consider that the number of macroeconomic variables used for prediction is a parameter of the algorithm (i.e., it is fixed a priori), the proposed Variable Neighborhood Search method optimizes both: the number of variables and the best ones. After this first step of feature selection, an Extreme Learning Machine network is applied to obtain the final energy demand prediction. Experiments in a real case of energy demand estimation in Spain show the excellent performance of the proposed approach. In particular, the whole method obtains an estimation of the energy demand with an error lower than 2%, even when considering the crisis years, which are a real challenge.

  18. Effects of different international fiscal systems on reserves reporting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McMichael, C.L.

    1996-01-01

    The effects of international fiscal systems on oil and gas reserves evaluation and reporting, was reviewed. The movement in reserves estimates with changing technical, political and economic conditions, was described. Difficulties associated with the evaluation and booking of reserves is largely due to the confusing duplication of terms. For example, explorationists refer to reserves as an undrilled prospect, while engineers refer to them as producing property. The financial analyst refers to reserves of a company, while governments refer to the reserves of the country. The importance of defining reserves with full knowledge of the specific regulations that govern the reporting of reserves externally, and the internal reporting requirements for business planning purposes, was stressed. 2 refs

  19. Adequacy of Frequency Reserves for High Wind Power Generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Das, Kaushik; Litong-Palima, Marisciel; Maule, Petr

    2017-01-01

    In this article, a new methodology is developed to assess the adequacy of frequency reserves to handle power imbalances caused by wind power forecast errors. The goal of this methodology is to estimate the adequate volume and speed of activation of frequency reserves required to handle power...

  20. Dietary intake estimations of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) based on a total diet study in Osaka, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akutsu, K; Takatori, S; Nakazawa, H; Hayakawa, K; Izumi, S; Makino, T

    2008-01-01

    This study presents the results of a total diet study performed for estimating the dietary intake of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in Osaka, Japan. The concentrations of 36 PBDEs were measured in samples from 14 food groups (Groups I-XIV). PBDEs were detected only in Groups IV (oils and fats), V (legumes and their products), X (fish, shellfish, and their products), and XI (meat and eggs) at concentrations of 1.8, 0.03, 0.48, and 0.01 ng g⁻¹, respectively. For an average person, the lower bound dietary intakes of penta- and deca-formulations were estimated to be 46 and 21 ng day⁻¹, respectively. A high proportion of the decabrominated congener (DeBDE-209) was observed in Group IV. To confirm the presence of DeBDE-209 in vegetable oils, an additional analysis was performed using 18 vegetable oil samples. Of these, seven contained ng g⁻¹ levels of DeBDE-209.

  1. A General Business Model for Marine Reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sala, Enric; Costello, Christopher; Dougherty, Dawn; Heal, Geoffrey; Kelleher, Kieran; Murray, Jason H.; Rosenberg, Andrew A.; Sumaila, Rashid

    2013-01-01

    Marine reserves are an effective tool for protecting biodiversity locally, with potential economic benefits including enhancement of local fisheries, increased tourism, and maintenance of ecosystem services. However, fishing communities often fear short-term income losses associated with closures, and thus may oppose marine reserves. Here we review empirical data and develop bioeconomic models to show that the value of marine reserves (enhanced adjacent fishing + tourism) may often exceed the pre-reserve value, and that economic benefits can offset the costs in as little as five years. These results suggest the need for a new business model for creating and managing reserves, which could pay for themselves and turn a profit for stakeholder groups. Our model could be expanded to include ecosystem services and other benefits, and it provides a general framework to estimate costs and benefits of reserves and to develop such business models. PMID:23573192

  2. Preliminary estimates of the total-system cost for the restructured program: An addendum to the May 1989 analysis of the total-system life cycle cost for the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-12-01

    The total-system life-cycle cost (TSLCC) analysis for the Department of Energy's (DOE) Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program is an ongoing activity that helps determine whether the revenue-producing mechanism established by the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 - a fee levied on electricity generated and sold by commercial nuclear power plants - is sufficient to cover the cost of the program. This report provides cost estimates for the sixth annual evaluation of the adequacy of the fee. The costs contained in this report represent a preliminary analysis of the cost impacts associated with the Secretary of Energy's Report to Congress on Reassessment of the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program issued in November 1989. The major elements of the restructured program announced in this report which pertain to the program's life-cycle costs are: a prioritization of the scientific investigations program at the Yucca Mountain candidate site to focus on identification of potentially adverse conditions, a delay in the start of repository operations until 2010, the start of limited waste acceptance at the monitored retrievable storage (MRS) facility in 1998, and the start of waste acceptance at the full-capability MRS facility in 2,000. Based on the restructured program, the total-system cost for the system with a repository at the candidate site at Yucca Mountain in Nevada, a facility for monitored retrievable storage (MRS), and a transportation system is estimated at $26 billion (expressed in constant 1988 dollars). In the event that a second repository is required and is authorized by the Congress, the total-system cost is estimated at $34 to $35 billion, depending on the quantity of spent fuel and high-level waste (HLW) requiring disposal. 17 figs., 17 tabs

  3. Estimates of mean consequences and confidence bounds on the mean associated with low-probability seismic events in total system performance assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pensado, Osvaldo; Mancillas, James

    2007-01-01

    An approach is described to estimate mean consequences and confidence bounds on the mean of seismic events with low probability of breaching components of the engineered barrier system. The approach is aimed at complementing total system performance assessment models used to understand consequences of scenarios leading to radionuclide releases in geologic nuclear waste repository systems. The objective is to develop an efficient approach to estimate mean consequences associated with seismic events of low probability, employing data from a performance assessment model with a modest number of Monte Carlo realizations. The derived equations and formulas were tested with results from a specific performance assessment model. The derived equations appear to be one method to estimate mean consequences without having to use a large number of realizations. (authors)

  4. Estimation of the Possible Power of a Wind Farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood; Göçmen Bozkurt, Tuhfe; Giebel, Gregor

    2014-01-01

    the possible power calculated based on the estimated effective wind speed of a down regulated wind farm (the industry standard) is compared against the calculated possible power based on the algorithm presented in the paper. The latter takes into account the eect of the wakes of down regulated turbines......It seems possible to increase competitiveness of wind power plants by offering grid services (also called ancillary services) and enter the wind power plants into the ancillary market. One of the ancillary services is called reserve power, the differential capacity between the generated power...... and the available power in the farm. The total amount of energy that a wind farm can potentially generate is called possible power. It is very important for a wind farm owner to have a relatively accurate estimate of the possible power of the wind farm in order to be able to trade the reserve power. In this paper...

  5. Establishment of nature reserves in administrative regions of mainland China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ziliang Guo

    Full Text Available Nature reserves are widely considered as one available strategy for protecting biodiversity, which is threatened by habitat fragmentation, and wildlife extinction. The Chinese government has established a goal of protecting 15% of its land area by 2015. We quantitated the characteristics and distribution of nature reserves in mainland China and evaluated the expansion process for national nature reserves. National nature reserves occupy 64.15% of the total area of nature reserves. Steppe and meadow ecosystem, ocean and seacoast ecosystem, and wild plant nature reserves represent lower percentages, particularly in national nature reserves, in which they comprised 0.76%, 0.54%, and 0.69%, respectively, of the area. Furthermore, medium and small nature reserves compose 92.32% of all nature reserves. The land area under any legal protection has reached 14.80%, although only 9.78% is strictly protected. However, if 9 super-large national nature reserves, located in Southwest and Northwest China were removed, the percentage of strictly protected area decreases to 2.66% of the land area of China. The areas contained in nature reserves in each province are not proportional to the areas of the provinces, particularly for national nature reserves, with higher protection rates in Southwest and Northwest China than in other regions. Of the 31 provinces, 22 provinces feature strict protection of less than 4% of their areas by national nature reserves; these provinces are mainly located in East, Central, South, and North China. Moreover, the unevenness indexes of the distribution of nature reserves and national nature reserves are 0.39 and 0.58, respectively. The construction of nature reserves has entered a steady development stage after a period of rapid expansion in mainland China. In recent years, the total area of national nature reserves has increased slowly, while the total area of nature reserves has not increased, although the number of nature

  6. Estimating the Total Heat Flux from the ASHES Hydrothermal Vent Field Using the Sentry Autonomous Underwater Vehicle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crone, T. J.; Kinsey, J. C.; Mittelstaedt, E. L.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrothermal venting at mid-ocean ridges influences ocean chemistry, the thermal and chemical structure of the oceanic crust, and the evolution of unique and diverse autolithotrophically-supported ecosystems. Axially-hosted hydrothermal systems are responsible for 20-25% of the total heat flux out of Earth's interior, and likely play a large role in local as well as global biogeochemical cycles. Despite the importance of these systems, only a few studies have attempted to constrain the volume and heat flux of an entire hydrothermal vent field. In July of 2014 we used the Sentry autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) to survey the water column over the ASHES hydrothermal vent field which is located within the caldera of Axial Seamount, an active submarine volcano located on the Juan de Fuca Ridge. To estimate the total heat and mass flux from this vent field, we equipped Sentry with a Nortek acoustic Doppler velocimeter (ADV), an inertial measurement unit (IMU), two acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs), and two SBE3 temperature probes, allowing us to obtain precise measurements of fluid temperature and water velocity. The survey was designed using a control volume approach in which Sentry was pre-programmed to survey a 150-m-square centered over the vent field flying a grid pattern with 5-m track line spacing followed by a survey of the perimeter. This pattern was repeated multiple times during several 10-h dives at different altitudes, including 10, 20, 40, and 60 m above the seafloor, and during one 40-h survey at an altitude of 10 m. During the 40-h survey, the pattern was repeated nine times allowing us to obtain observations over several tidal cycles. Water velocity data obtained with Sentry were corrected for platform motion and then combined with the temperature measurements to estimate heat flux. The analysis of these data will likely provide the most accurate and highest resolution heat and mass flux estimates at a seafloor hydrothermal field to date.

  7. Monitoring of German Fertility: Estimation of Monthly and Yearly Total Fertility Rates on the Basis of Preliminary Monthly Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriele Doblhammer

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces a set of methods for estimating fertility indicators in the absence of recent and short-term birth statistics. For Germany, we propose a set of straightforward methods that allow for the computation of monthly and yearly total fertility rates (mTFR on the basis of preliminary monthly data, including a confidence interval. The method for estimating most current fertility rates can be applied when no information on the age structure and the number of women exposed to childbearing is available. The methods introduced in this study are useful for calculating monthly birth indicators, with minimal requirements for data quality and statistical effort. In addition, we suggest an approach for projecting the yearly TFR based on preliminary monthly information up to June.

  8. Assessment of Coal Geology, Resources, and Reserves in the Gillette Coalfield, Powder River Basin, Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luppens, James A.; Scott, David C.; Haacke, Jon E.; Osmonson, Lee M.; Rohrbacher, Timothy J.; Ellis, Margaret S.

    2008-01-01

    evaluation. With a discounted cash flow at 8 percent rate of return, the coal reserves estimate for the Gillette coalfield is10.1 billion short tons of coal (6 percent of the original resource total) for the 6 coal beds evaluated.

  9. Monitoring dolphins in an urban marine system: total and effective population size estimates of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay, Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ina C Ansmann

    Full Text Available Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia is an area of high biodiversity and conservation value and home to two sympatric sub-populations of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus. These dolphins live in close proximity to major urban developments. Successful management requires information regarding their abundance. Here, we estimate total and effective population sizes of bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay using photo-identification and genetic data collected during boat-based surveys in 2008-2010. Abundance (N was estimated using open population mark-recapture models based on sighting histories of distinctive individuals. Effective population size (Ne was estimated using the linkage disequilibrium method based on nuclear genetic data at 20 microsatellite markers in skin samples, and corrected for bias caused by overlapping generations (Ne c. A total of 174 sightings of dolphin groups were recorded and 365 different individuals identified. Over the whole of Moreton Bay, a population size N of 554 ± 22.2 (SE (95% CI: 510-598 was estimated. The southern bay sub-population was small at an estimated N = 193 ± 6.4 (SE (95% CI: 181-207, while the North sub-population was more numerous, with 446 ± 56 (SE (95% CI: 336-556 individuals. The small estimated effective population size of the southern sub-population (Ne c = 56, 95% CI: 33-128 raises conservation concerns. A power analysis suggested that to reliably detect small (5% declines in size of this population would require substantial survey effort (>4 years of annual mark-recapture surveys at the precision levels achieved here. To ensure that ecological as well as genetic diversity within this population of bottlenose dolphins is preserved, we consider that North and South sub-populations should be treated as separate management units. Systematic surveys over smaller areas holding locally-adapted sub-populations are suggested as an alternative method for increasing ability to detect

  10. Estimation of ionized calcium, total calcium and albumin corrected calcium for the diagnosis of hypocalcaemia of malignancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ijaz, A.; Mehmood, T.; Qureshi, A.H.; Anwar, M.; Dilawar, M.; Hussain, I.; Khan, F.A.; Khan, D.A.; Hussain, S.; Khan, I.A.

    2006-01-01

    Objective: To measure levels of ionized calcium, total calcium and albumin corrected calcium in patients with different malignant disorders for the diagnosis of hypercalcaemia of malignancy. Design: A case control comparative study. Place and Duration of Study: The study was carried out in the Department of Pathology, Army Medical College Rawalpindi, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology and Department of Oncology CMH, Rawalpindi from March 2003 to December 2003. Subjects and Methods: Ninety-seven patients of various malignant disorders, admitted in the Department of Oncology, CMH, Rawalpindi, and 39 age and gender-matched disease-free persons (as control) were included in the study. Blood ionized calcium (Ca/sup ++/), pH, sodium (Na/sup +/) and potassium (K/sup +/) were analysed by Ion selective electrode (ISE) on Easylyte> auto analyser. Other related parameters were measured by colorimetric methods. Results: Blood Ca/sup ++/ levels in patients suffering from malignant disorders were found significantly high (mean +- j 1.30+017 mmoV/L) as compared to control subjects (mean +- 1.23+0.03 mmoV/L) (p<0.001). The number of patients with hypercalcaemia of malignancy detected by Ca/sup ++/ estimation was significantly higher (38%) as compared to total calcium (8.4%) and albumin corrected calcium ACC (10.6%) (p<0.001). There was no statistically significant difference in other parameters e.g. phosphate, urea, creatinine, pH, Na/sup +/ and K/sup +/ levels in study subjects and controls. Conclusion: Detection of hypercalcaemia can be markedly improved if ionized calcium estimation is used in patients with malignant disorders. (author)

  11. Criticality accident in uranium fuel processing plant. The estimation of the total number of fissions with related reactor physics parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishina, Kojiro; Oyamatsu, Kazuhiro; Kondo, Shunsuke; Sekimoto, Hiroshi; Ishitani, Kazuki; Yamane, Yoshihiro; Miyoshi, Yoshinori

    2000-01-01

    This accident occurred when workers were pouring a uranium solution into a precipitation tank with handy operation against the established procedure and both the cylindrical diameter and the total mass exceeded the limited values. As a result, nuclear fission chain reactor in the solution reached not only a 'criticality' state continuing it independently but also an instantly forming criticality state exceed the criticality and increasing further nuclear fission number. The place occurring the accident at this time was not reactor but a place having not to form 'criticality' called by a processing process of uranium fuel. In such place, as because of relating to mechanism of chain reaction, it is required naturally for knowledge on the reactor physics, it is also necessary to understand chemical reaction in chemical process, and functions of tanks, valves and pumps mounted at the processes. For this purpose, some information on uranium concentration ratio, atomic density of nuclides largely affecting to chain reaction such as uranium, hydrogen, and so forth in the solution, shape, inner structure and size of container for the solution, and its temperature and total volume, were necessary for determining criticality volume of the accident uranium solution by using nuclear physics procedures. Here were described on estimation of energy emission in the JCO accident, estimation from analytical results on neutron and solution, calculation of various nuclear physics property estimation on the JCO precipitation tank at JAERI. (G.K.)

  12. Estimation of Tri-Axial Walking Ground Reaction Forces of Left and Right Foot from Total Forces in Real-Life Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erfan Shahabpoor

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Continuous monitoring of natural human gait in real-life environments is essential in many applications including disease monitoring, rehabilitation, and professional sports. Wearable inertial measurement units are successfully used to measure body kinematics in real-life environments and to estimate total walking ground reaction forces GRF(t using equations of motion. However, for inverse dynamics and clinical gait analysis, the GRF(t of each foot is required separately. Using an experimental dataset of 1243 tri-axial separate-foot GRF(t time histories measured by the authors across eight years, this study proposes the ‘Twin Polynomial Method’ (TPM to estimate the tri-axial left and right foot GRF(t signals from the total GRF(t signals. For each gait cycle, TPM fits polynomials of degree five, eight, and nine to the known single-support part of the left and right foot vertical, anterior-posterior, and medial-lateral GRF(t signals, respectively, to extrapolate the unknown double-support parts of the corresponding GRF(t signals. Validation of the proposed method both with force plate measurements (gold standard in the laboratory, and in real-life environment showed a peak-to-peak normalized root mean square error of less than 2.5%, 6.5% and 7.5% for the estimated GRF(t signals in the vertical, anterior-posterior and medial-lateral directions, respectively. These values show considerable improvement compared with the currently available GRF(t decomposition methods in the literature.

  13. The impact of oil price on additions to US proven reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farzin, Y.H.

    2001-01-01

    Departing from Hotelling's assumption of fixed and known reserves, this paper develops an economic model of additions to proven reserves that explicitly incorporates the effects of expected resource price, cumulative reserves development, and technological progress on reserve additions. The model treats additions to proven oil reserves as output of a production process in which drilling wells is a primary input to transform some of oil-in-place into the economic category of proven reserves. Application of the model to US data for the 1950-1995 period provides strong statistical support for the existence of all the three salient effects. We obtain an estimate of the price elasticity of reserve additions (absent from previous studies) which, although statistically highly significant, is rather small. Using this price elasticity estimate, it is shown that if in the face of steady economic growth, and hence, oil consumption, US oil import dependence is to be kept from rising in the future, ceteris paribus, a steady oil price increase in the range of 1.5-4.5% a year is essential

  14. Community stand structure of rehabilitated forest at Kenaboi Forest Reserve, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatma, N. A. H.; Wan Juliana, W. A.; Shaharuddin, M. I.; Wickneswari, R.

    2016-11-01

    A descriptive study of species composition, community structure and biomass was conducted in compartment 107, which is a rehabilitated area at Kenaboi Forest Reserve, Jelebu, Negeri Sembilan. The objective is to determine the forest structure and species composition in a rehabilitated area of Kenaboi FR since enrichment planting had done. A sample plot of 1 hectare was censused and a total of 395 trees with diameter ≥ 5 cm DBH were recorded. A total of 285 individual trees were identified belonging to 20 families and the commonest family was Dipterocarpaceae with 193 individuals. The highest tree density per ha was Shorea acuminata at 33% followed by S. parvifolia, 10% and S. leprosula, 6%. The biggest tree was Artocarpus elasticus Reinw. ex Blume with a diameter of 101 cm. The total basal area was 34.48 m2/ha, whereby the highest basal area was between 45 - 54.9 cm DBH class that contributed 10.21 m2/ha (30%). The total biomass estimation (above ground and below ground) was 792.57 t/ha. Dipterocarpaceae contributed the highest total biomass at 545.14 t/ha with S. acuminata contributed the highest total biomass of 330.45 t/ha. This study will contribute to the knowledge of regeneration forest especially on how the ecological process restoring the biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in rehabilitated forest by practicing the enrichment planting of native species.

  15. Influence of Posture and Frequency Modes in Total Body Water Estimation Using Bioelectrical Impedance Spectroscopy in Boys and Adult Males

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masaharu Kagawa

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to examine differences in total body water (TBW measured using single-frequency (SF and multi-frequency (MF modes of bioelectrical impedance spectroscopy (BIS in children and adults measured in different postures using the deuterium (2H dilution technique as the reference. Twenty-three boys and 26 adult males underwent assessment of TBW using the dilution technique and BIS measured in supine and standing positions using two frequencies of the SF mode (50 kHz and 100 kHz and the MF mode. While TBW estimated from the MF mode was comparable, extra-cellular fluid (ECF and intra-cellular fluid (ICF values differed significantly (p < 0.01 between the different postures in both groups. In addition, while estimated TBW in adult males using the MF mode was significantly (p < 0.01 greater than the result from the dilution technique, TBW estimated using the SF mode and prediction equation was significantly (p < 0.01 lower in boys. Measurement posture may not affect estimation of TBW in boys and adult males, however, body fluid shifts may still occur. In addition, technical factors, including selection of prediction equation, may be important when TBW is estimated from measured impedance.

  16. High-seas fish wars generate marine reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Guillermo E; Moeller, Holly V; Neubert, Michael G

    2016-04-05

    The effective management of marine fisheries is an ongoing challenge at the intersection of biology, economics, and policy. One way in which fish stocks-and their habitats-can be protected is through the establishment of marine reserves, areas that are closed to fishing. Although the potential economic benefits of such reserves have been shown for single-owner fisheries, their implementation quickly becomes complicated when more than one noncooperating harvester is involved in fishery management, which is the case on the high seas. How do multiple self-interested actors distribute their fishing effort to maximize their individual economic gains in the presence of others? Here, we use a game theoretic model to compare the effort distributions of multiple noncooperating harvesters with the effort distributions in the benchmark sole owner and open access cases. In addition to comparing aggregate rent, stock size, and fishing effort, we focus on the occurrence, size, and location of marine reserves. We show that marine reserves are a component of many noncooperative Cournot-Nash equilibria. Furthermore, as the number of harvesters increases, (i) both total unfished area and the size of binding reserves (those that actually constrain behavior) may increase, although the latter eventually asymptotically decreases; (ii) total rents and stock size both decline; and (iii) aggregate effort used (i.e., employment) can either increase or decrease, perhaps nonmonotonically.

  17. Probability estimate of confirmability of the value of predicted oil and gas reserves of the Chechen-Ingushetiya. Veroyatnostnaya otsenka podtverzhdaemosti velichiny prognoznykh zapasov nefti is gaza Checheno-Ingushetii

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Merkulov, N.E.; Lysenkov, P.P.

    1981-01-01

    Estimated are the reliable predicted reserves of oil and gas of the Chechen-Ingushetia by methods of probability calculations. Calculations were made separately for each oil-bearing lithologic-stratigraphic horizon. The computation results are summarized in a table, and graphs are constructed.

  18. Federal Regulations: Efforts to Estimate Total Costs and Benefits of Rules

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-04-07

    the Chamber of Commerce , academicians, the media, and others, and is sometimes cited with a high degree of certainty ." For example, some articles...House of Representatives, Feb . 25,2004; and testimony of William P . Kovacs, Vice President, U .S. Chamber of Commerce , before the Subcommittee on Energy...estimated the annual cost to employers of the Family and Medical Leave Act at $825 million, but that the Chamber of Commerce estimated the cost at between $3

  19. Comment on: "Recent revisions of phosphate rock reserves and resources: a critique" by Edixhoven et al. (2014) - Phosphate reserves and resources: what conceptions and data do stakeholders need for sustainable action?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholz, R. W.; Wellmer, F.-W.

    2015-01-01

    Several recent papers predict a scarcity of phosphate reserves in the near future. The paper by Edixhoven et al. (2014), for instance, expresses the doubts about whether the upward estimate of reserves by the IFDC (2010) and the USGS (2010) provide an accurate, reliable, and comparable picture, as they are based on reports that do not clearly differentiate between phosphate ore and phosphate products (i.e., marketable phosphate rock concentrate). Further the indistinct use of the terms reserves and resources is criticized. Edixhoven et al. ask for a differentiated inventory of world phosphate reserves including "guidelines which determine the appropriate drill hole distances." The claim that humanity is on the safe side with respect to future phosphate is supply is doubted as the validity of the IFDC's upgrading of the Moroccan data to 50 Gt phosphate is questioned. The present paper identifies and discusses basic conceptual errors of the paper by Edixhoven et al. and related papers that predict a short or mid-term phosphorus scarcity. These include the non-acknowledgment of the dynamic nature of reserves (which depends on price, technology, and innovation for exploiting low-grade deposits, etc.), the mixing of finiteness and staticness of the ultimate recoverable resources (i.e., phosphorus that may be mined economically in the long-term future), the improper use of the Hubbert analysis (which, e.g., simply uses the USGS estimates of reserves as a substitute of an estimate of ultimate recoverable resources) and the geostatistical naive/unprofessional demand for fixed drilling plans to assess reserves. We reconstruct the IFDC and USGS estimates and conclude that there is no evidence for considering the 50 Gt phosphate concentrate as an unreasonable estimate for Moroccan reserves. However, the partial mixing of different units (e.g., phosphate ore and phosphate concentrate or marketable product) in the USGS data may be avoided by improving the data base and using

  20. What are the reserves made of

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laherrere, J.

    1998-01-01

    The oil geologists worry about the oil reserves. An inventory of the oil resources estimations was carried out by the OECD-IEA. Some of the subjects covered by this inventory are commented with the arguments of the two schools : optimists and pessimists. The analysis takes account of the influence of the costs and the offshore technology. (A.L.B.)

  1. THE EFFECT OF CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS DURING THE 1930s:

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas Mayer; Thomas F. Cargill

    2004-01-01

    The differential response of cash reserves of member banks and nonmember banks not subject to the 1936-37 increase in reserve requirements is estimated to determine whether the 1937-38 recession was caused by the increase in reserve requirements. We identify 17 states that maintained constant reserve requirements from June 1934 to June 1941. While member banks increased their cash reserve ratios relative to nonmember banks, the magnitude of the adjustment is too small to have contributed to t...

  2. an approach to estimate total dissolved solids in groundwater using

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    resistivities of the aquifer delineated were subsequently used to estimate TDS in groundwater which was correlated with those ... the concentrations of these chemical constituents in the ..... TDS determined by water analysis varied between 17.

  3. Markers for total consumption estimate of penned holstein x zebu heifers Indicadores para estimativa de consumo total por novilhas holandês x zebu mantidas em confinamento

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Januário Magalhães Aroeira

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available It was aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the internal markers: indigestible fibers (FDAi and FDNi, lignin Klason and the external markers: chromic oxide and modified enriched hidroxiphenilpropan LIPE® on the total intake estimates of penned crossbreed heifers (Holstein x Zebu. They´re assigned to four diets: elephant grass (Pennisetum purpureum Schum. silage; elephant grass silage and commercial concentrate; chopped sugar cane and urea; chopped sugar cane, urea and commercial concentrate. The chromic oxide underestimated the heifers consumption of all diets and its estimates differed from either hod consumption or those obtained with markers. LIPE® may replace chromic oxide because its consumption estimates did not differ from hod consumption of all diets. The lignin Klason showed to be more appropriate to estimate the heifers consumption that were fed with diets based on grass silage than those heifers fed with sugarcane. This marker underestimated the consumption of heifers that received sugarcane and urea (3,57kg/day of MS when it was compared to the consumption registered in hod (4,05kg/day of MS, however, for those heifers that received sugarcane, urea and supply, lignin Klason underestimated the consumption (3,90kg/day of MS, so that, it differed form consumption in hod (4,90kg/day of MS. The indigestible fibers (FDAi and FDNi were suitable to estimate the heifers consumption in all diets. Those results showed that markers present differentiated effect according to the roughage used.Objetivou-se avaliar a eficácia dos indicadores internos: fibras indigestíveis (FDAi e FDNi e lignina Klason e os indicadores externos: óxido crômico e hidroxifenilpropano enriquecido e modificado LIPE® nas estimativas de consumo total de novilhas mestiças Holandês x Zebu, mantidas em confinamento e submetidas a quatro dietas: silagem de capim elefante (Pennisetum purpureum Schum.; silagem de capim elefante e concentrado comercial; cana

  4. Evaluation of reserved hepatic function in patients with hepatobiliary tumor by 99mTc-GSA. Effect of hyperbilirubinemia and usefulness of regional reserved hepatic functional imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin Wu; Ishikawa, Nobuyoshi; Takeda, Tohoru; Sato, Motohiro; Todoroki, Takeshi; Itai, Yuji; Fukunaga, Kiyoshi; Okumura, Toshiyuki; Hatakeyama, Rokurou.

    1996-01-01

    The evaluation of the reserved hepatic function was performed by 99m Tc-galactosyl serum albumin ( 99m Tc-GSA) in 70 patients with hepatobiliary tumor. The dynamic study was performed to evaluate global reserved hepatic function following the intravenous bolus injection of 99m Tc-GSA, and the hepatic single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) was obtained to assess the regional reserved hepatic function. The functional hepatic index (LHL 15 ) was derived from liver time-activity data, and it was compared with serum total-bilirubin level, serum albumin level and plasma disappearance rate of indocyanine green (ICG 15 ). In the patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, LHL 15 value agreed well with ICG 15 value, serum total-bilirubin level, and serum albumin level. Moderate or severe hepatic dysfunction was observed at 65.4% of these patients. In the patients with cholangiocellular carcinoma, a discrepancy of LHL 15 value and ICG 15 value was observed. Increment of the ICG 15 value was correlated with that of the serum total-bilirubin level, whereas the correlation was not observed between the LHL 15 value and the serum total-bilirubin level. These results indicate that 99m Tc-GSA scintigraphy can evaluate the reserved hepatic function without the embellishment of jaundice. This method is useful for assessing the global and regional reserved hepatic function. (author)

  5. Flexible reserve markets for wind integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Alisha R.

    The increased interconnection of variable generation has motivated the use of improved forecasting to more accurately predict future production with the purpose to lower total system costs for balancing when the expected output exceeds or falls short of the actual output. Forecasts are imperfect, and the forecast errors associated with utility-scale generation from variable generators need new balancing capabilities that cannot be handled by existing ancillary services. Our work focuses on strategies for integrating large amounts of wind generation under the flex reserve market, a market that would called upon for short-term energy services during an under or oversupply of wind generation to maintain electric grid reliability. The flex reserve market would be utilized for time intervals that fall in-between the current ancillary services markets that would be longer than second-to-second energy services for maintaining system frequency and shorter than reserve capacity services that are called upon for several minutes up to an hour during an unexpected contingency on the grid. In our work, the wind operator would access the flex reserve market as an energy service to correct for unanticipated forecast errors, akin to paying the generators participating in the market to increase generation during a shortfall or paying the other generators to decrease generation during an excess of wind generation. Such a market does not currently exist in the Mid-Atlantic United States. The Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection (PJM) is the Mid-Atlantic electric grid case study that was used to examine if a flex reserve market can be utilized for integrating large capacities of wind generation in a lowcost manner for those providing, purchasing and dispatching these short-term balancing services. The following work consists of three studies. The first examines the ability of a hydroelectric facility to provide short-term forecast error balancing services via a flex

  6. Casein Supplementation Does Not Affect the Estimates of True Total Tract Digestibility of Phosphorus in Soybean Meal for Growing Pigs Determined by the Regression Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. B. Liu

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Forty-eight barrows with an average initial body weight of 25.5±0.3 kg were assigned to 6 dietary treatments arranged in a 3×2 factorial of 3 graded levels of P at 1.42, 2.07, or 2.72 g/kg, and 2 levels of casein at 0 or 50 g/kg to compare the estimates of true total tract digestibility (TTTD of P in soybean meal (SBM for pigs fed diets with or without casein supplementation. The SBM is the only source of P in diets without casein, and in the diet with added casein, 1.0 to 2.4 g/kg of total dietary P was supplied by SBM as dietary level of SBM increased. The experiment consisted of a 5-d adjustment period and a 5-d total collection period with ferric oxide as a maker to indicate the initiation and termination of fecal collection. There were interactive effects of casein supplementation and total dietary P level on the apparent total tract digestibility (ATTD and retention of P (p0.05. In summary, our results demonstrate that the estimates of TTTD of P in SBM for pigs were not affected by constant casein inclusion in the basal diets.

  7. All rights reserved and www.bioline.org.br/ja Estimation of exit ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    and www.bioline.org.br/ja. Estimation of exit temperatures in the isentropic compression of real gases. 1 ..... other thermodynamic properties can be calculated within the framework of ... of negative compressibility) has no physical significance.

  8. Diet adjustments of maned wolves, Chrysocyon brachyurus (Illiger (Mammalia, Canidae, subjected to supplemental feeding in a private natural reserve, Southeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joaquim A. Silva

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available From the analysis of 230 scats, the diet of the maned wolves, Chrysocyon brachyurus (Illiger, 1815, was determined in a private natural reserve in southeastern Brazil in which ecotourism activities are developed and the animals are deliberately fed bovine meat. A total of 569 occurrences of food items were recorded, of which 56.8% were of animal origin and 29.1% of vegetal origin. Rodents, insects and birds added up to 35.8% of the occurrences, yet accounted for 68.5% of the total number of preys (277. Insects, however, had practically no importance (0.1% in the total estimated biomass consumed. Even though the fruit Solanum lycocarpum St.-Hil. is a common food item in the diet of the maned wolf, its occurrence in the diet at the Serra do Caraça Reserve was insignificant, accounting for only 4.8% of the total number of food item occurrences and 3.4% of the total estimated biomass consumption. Food items of anthropic origin and inorganic items (e.g., plastic represented 14.1% of all occurrences, which shows that the animals are used to the presence of humans. Seasonal variations in consumption were found for S. lycocarpum (c² = 10,09; p < 0,001, for other fruits (c² = 19,73; p < 0,001, and for reptiles (c² = 15,56; p < 0,001, all of which were more frequently eaten during the dry months. There was a significant correlation between the availability of small mammals and their consumption by the maned wolves (r s = 0.59; p = 0.041, yet the same was not observed for the fruits of S. lycocarpum (r s = 0,101; p = 0,754. Our findings stress the need for a better understanding of the effects of additional foods on the natural feeding habits of the maned wolf.

  9. Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    During fiscal year 1992, the reserves generated $473 million in revenues, a $181 million decrease from the fiscal year 1991 revenues, primarily due to significant decreases in oil and natural gas prices. Total costs were $200 million, resulting in net cash flow of $273 million, compared with $454 million in fiscal year 1991. From 1976 through fiscal year 1992, the Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves generated more than $15 billion in revenues and a net operating income after costs of $12.5 billion. In fiscal year 1992, production at the Naval Petroleum Reserves at maximum efficient rates yielded 26 million barrels of crude oil, 119 billion cubic feet of natural gas, and 164 million gallons of natural gas liquids. From April to November 1992, senior managers from the Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves held a series of three workshops in Boulder, Colorado, in order to build a comprehensive Strategic Plan as required by Secretary of Energy Notice 25A-91. Other highlights are presented for the following: Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 1--production achievements, crude oil shipments to the strategic petroleum reserve, horizontal drilling, shallow oil zone gas injection project, environment and safety, and vanpool program; Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 2--new management and operating contractor and exploration drilling; Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 3--steamflood; Naval Oil Shale Reserves--protection program; and Tiger Team environmental assessment of the Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming

  10. Joint energy and spinning reserve dispatching and pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rashidinejad, M.; Song, Y.-H.; Javidi Dasht-Bayaz, M.H.

    2000-01-01

    Unpredictable load demand variations, and also sudden generation interruption, may cause imbalance in power systems. To prevent any blackout and to reduce such total power imbalance, spinning reserve can provide electric power system ability to respond. Adequate amount of spinning reserve should be based on economy and risk as an optimal decision making. This paper uses Quadratic Programming (QP) method to solve Joint Energy and Spinning Reserve Dispatch (JESRD) problem and derives the optimal price of spinning reserve. In JESRD, Unserved Energy Cost (UEC) is considered as an Opportunity Cost of Spinning Reserve (OCSR). To distribute the System Reserve Requirements (SRR) among generation units, two different models, Fixed Reserve Percentage (FRP) or fixed allocation model and Non-Fixed Reserve Percentage (NFRP) or flexible allocation model has been investigated. Numerical results on a 5-bus test system and the 30-bus IEEE standard system, considering FRP and NFRP models are included. (author)

  11. Reverse-total shoulder arthroplasty cost-effectiveness: A quality-adjusted life years comparison with total hip arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachman, Daniel; Nyland, John; Krupp, Ryan

    2016-02-18

    To compare reverse-total shoulder arthroplasty (RSA) cost-effectiveness with total hip arthroplasty cost-effectiveness. This study used a stochastic model and decision-making algorithm to compare the cost-effectiveness of RSA and total hip arthroplasty. Fifteen patients underwent pre-operative, and 3, 6, and 12 mo post-operative clinical examinations and Short Form-36 Health Survey completion. Short form-36 Health Survey subscale scores were converted to EuroQual Group Five Dimension Health Outcome scores and compared with historical data from age-matched patients who had undergone total hip arthroplasty. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) improvements based on life expectancies were calculated. The cost/QALY was $3900 for total hip arthroplasty and $11100 for RSA. After adjusting the model to only include shoulder-specific physical function subscale items, the RSA QALY improved to 2.8 years, and its cost/QALY decreased to $8100. Based on industry accepted standards, cost/QALY estimates supported both RSA and total hip arthroplasty cost-effectiveness. Although total hip arthroplasty remains the quality of life improvement "gold standard" among arthroplasty procedures, cost/QALY estimates identified in this study support the growing use of RSA to improve patient quality of life.

  12. Total 2004 results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-02-01

    This document presents the 2004 results of Total Group: consolidated account, special items, number of shares, market environment, adjustment for amortization of Sanofi-Aventis merger-related intangibles, 4. quarter 2004 results (operating and net incomes, cash flow), upstream (results, production, reserves, recent highlights), downstream (results, refinery throughput, recent highlights), chemicals (results, recent highlights), Total's full year 2004 results (operating and net income, cash flow), 2005 sensitivities, Total SA parent company accounts and proposed dividend, adoption of IFRS accounting, summary and outlook, main operating information by segment for the 4. quarter and full year 2004: upstream (combined liquids and gas production by region, liquids production by region, gas production by region), downstream (refined product sales by region, chemicals), Total financial statements: consolidated statement of income, consolidated balance sheet (assets, liabilities and shareholder's equity), consolidated statements of cash flows, business segments information. (J.S.)

  13. Risk spreading, connectivity, and optimal reserve spacing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blowes, Shane A; Connolly, Sean R

    2012-01-01

    recovery and persistence to how covariance of vital rates decreases with distance suggests that estimating the shape of this function is likely to be as important for effective reserve design as estimating connectivity. Similarly, because temporal variation in dispersal dynamics influences the effect of reserve spacing, approaches to reserve design that ignore such variation, and rely instead on long-term average dispersal patterns, are likely to lead to lower metapopulation viability than is actually achievable.

  14. Application of particle size distributions to total particulate stack samples to estimate PM2.5 and PM10 emission factors for agricultural sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Particle size distributions (PSD) have long been used to more accurately estimate the PM10 fraction of total particulate matter (PM) stack samples taken from agricultural sources. These PSD analyses were typically conducted using a Coulter Counter with 50 micrometer aperture tube. With recent increa...

  15. The development of an ore reserve methodology for the Olympic Dam copper-uranium-gold deposit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, I.R.

    1987-01-01

    At the Olympic Dam copper-uranium-gold deposit in South Australia, evolution in the understanding of the controls on mineralisation coupled with the changing demands of the project have led to changes in the approach to reserve estimation. The project has moved into a phase where detailed stope mining reserves are now required as distinct from global ore reserves. To enable the selective manipulation of geological and assay information and its characterisation, a relational database has been developed. For reserve calculations themselves, initial computations were based on a system derived from that used for the Kambalda nickel orebodies. The Olympic Dam system differed mainly in the use of statistical analyses in the estimation of grade instead of the previous polygonal area of influence weighting method. Three dimensional weighting techniques are now being used for local reserve estimates

  16. Refractometric total protein concentrations in icteric serum from dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Aradhana; Stockham, Steven L

    2014-01-01

    To determine whether high serum bilirubin concentrations interfere with the measurement of serum total protein concentration by refractometry and to assess potential biases among refractometer measurements. Evaluation study. Sera from 2 healthy Greyhounds. Bilirubin was dissolved in 0.1M NaOH, and the resulting solution was mixed with sera from 2 dogs from which food had been withheld to achieve various bilirubin concentrations up to 40 mg/dL. Refractometric total protein concentrations were estimated with 3 clinical refractometers. A biochemical analyzer was used to measure biuret assay-based total protein and bilirubin concentrations with spectrophotometric assays. No interference with refractometric measurement of total protein concentrations was detected with bilirubin concentrations up to 41.5 mg/dL. Biases in refractometric total protein concentrations were detected and were related to the conversion of refractive index values to total protein concentrations. Hyperbilirubinemia did not interfere with the refractometric estimation of serum total protein concentration. The agreement among total protein concentrations estimated by 3 refractometers was dependent on the method of conversion of refractive index to total protein concentration and was independent of hyperbilirubinemia.

  17. Estimation of intermediate-grade uranium resources II. Proposed method for estimating intermediate-grade uranium resources in roll-front deposits. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambie, F.W.; Yee, S.N.

    1981-09-01

    The purpose of this and a previous project was to examine the feasibility of estimating intermediate grade uranium (0.01 to 0.05% U 3 O 8 ) on the basis of existing, sparsely drilled holes. All data are from the Powder River Basin in Wyoming. DOE makes preliminary estimates of endowment by calculating an Average Area of Influence (AAI) based on densely drilled areas, multiplying that by the thickness of the mineralization and then dividing by a tonnage factor. The resulting tonnage of ore is then multiplied by the average grade of the interval to obtain the estimate of U 3 O 8 tonnage. Total endowment is the sum of these values over all mineralized intervals in all wells in the area. In regions where wells are densely drilled and approximately regularly spaced this technique approaches the classical polygonal estimation technique used to estimate ore reserves and should be fairly reliable. The method is conservative because: (1) in sparsely drilled regions a large fraction of the area is not considered to contribute to endowment; (2) there is a bias created by the different distributions of point grades and mining block grades. A conservative approach may be justified for purposes of ore reserve estimation, where large investments may hinge on local forecasts. But for estimates of endowment over areas as large as 1 0 by 2 0 quadrangles, or the nation as a whole, errors in local predictions are not critical as long as they tend to cancel and a less conservative estimation approach may be justified.One candidate, developed for this study and described is called the contoured thickness technique. A comparison of estimates based on the contoured thickness approach with DOE calculations for five areas of Wyoming roll-fronts in the Powder River Basin is presented. The sensitivity of the technique to well density is examined and the question of predicting intermediate grade endowment from data on higher grades is discussed

  18. Uranium reserves and exploration activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meehan, R.J.

    1975-01-01

    The strategy that ERDA plans to employ regarding resource appraisal is outlined. All types of uranium occurrences will be evaluated as sources of domestic ore reserves. Industry's exploration efforts will be compiled. These data will include information on land acquisition and costs, footage drilled and costs, estimates of exploration activities and expenditures, exploration for non-sandstone deposits, exploration in non-established areas, and foreign exploration plans and costs. Typical data in each of these areas are given

  19. Total evaporation estimates from a Renosterveld and dryland wheat ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2010-07-09

    Jul 9, 2010 ... 1 CSIR Natural Resources and the Environment, PO Box 320 Stellenbosch 7599, South ... A change in land use from Renosterveld to dryland annual crops could therefore affect the soil .... Modelling total evaporation spatially: Surface Energy ..... similar, with ETo's ranging between 1.8 mm∙d-1 (on a cloudy/.

  20. Estimated daily intake of Fe, Cu, Ca and Zn through common cereals in Tehran, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashian, S; Fathivand, A A

    2015-06-01

    This paper presents the findings of study undertaken to estimate the dietary intake of iron (Fe), copper (Cu), calcium (Ca) and zinc (Zn) through common cereals in Tehran, Iran. 100 samples of rice, wheat and barley were collected from various brands between August and October 2013. The samples were analyzed performing instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). The dietary intake for adults was estimated by a total cereal study. Calculations were carried out on the basis of the reported adults' average food consumption rate data. The total daily intake estimated in mgd(-1) for Tehran population were 3.6 (Fe), 10.2 (Zn), 0.3 (Cu) and 234.5 (Ca). Wheat showed the highest contribution to Zn, Cu and Ca intakes. Furthermore, intakes were compared with recommended dietary allowance (RDA). Zn total intake (10.2mgd(-1)) was comparable with RDA values for males (11mgd(-1)) and was higher than recommended value for females (8mgd(-1)). The intakes of other studied elements were below the respective RDAs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Reserves for nuclear power plant decommissioning and radwaste disposal in Germany. An analysis and evaluation from the angle of energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buerger, V.

    1998-01-01

    The study, which is the first of its kind in Germany, presents a comprehensive survey of total reserves set up by the German nuclear industry for liabilities and costs for nuclear power plant decommissioning and resulting radwaste disposal, which is a legal and foreseeable responsibility but uncertain in amount. The study looks into the various ways the earmarked money was invested and analyses the funds with respect to their efficiency and reliability to provide financial security for the given tasks and purpose. The question put in this context is: Are the reserves set up so far in line with official cost estimates, i.e. will they cover estimated costs, or do they even exceed the estimated amounts? The conclusions drawn and explained in this document are: The reserves for nuclear decommissioning have been used by the nuclear power plant operators and electricity companies as a significant capital source. Some of the capital accrued is being increasingly used at present to cover expenses arising for restructuring of business and diversification into new business segments of interest in the open national and European electricity markets. Companies such as RWE, Preussen Elektra, and Bayernwerk, which until deregulation of the energy sector were just power supply companies, have been transformed into conglomerate companies and international players in the markets, like RWE Holding, VEBA, and VIAG. It can be safely assumed that the companies would not have been able to reach the important positions they currently hold in the German economy without tapping the reserves for nuclear decommissioning. (orig./CB) [de

  2. Estimation of the annual flow and stock of marine debris in South Korea for management purposes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Yong Chang; Lee, Jongmyoung; Hong, Sunwook; Mok, Jin Yong; Kim, Kyoung Shin; Lee, Yun Jeong; Choi, Hyun-Woo; Kang, Hongmook; Lee, Sukhui

    2014-09-15

    The annual flow and stock of marine debris in the Sea of Korea was estimated by summarizing previous survey results and integrating them with other relevant information to underpin the national marine debris management plan. The annual inflow of marine debris was estimated to be 91,195 tons [32,825 tons (36% of the total) from sources on land and 58,370 tons (64%) from ocean sources]. As of the end of 2012, the total stock of marine debris on all South Korean coasts (12,029 tons), the seabed (137,761 tons), and in the water column (2451 tons) was estimated to be 152,241 tons. In 2012, 42,595 tons of marine debris was collected from coasts, seabeds, and the water column. This is a very rare case study that estimated the amount of marine debris at a national level, the results of which provide essential information for the development of efficient marine debris management policies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Quality assessment of pollution indicators in marine water at critical locations of the Gulf of Mannar Biosphere Reserve, Tuticorin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajendran, Viji; Nirmaladevi D, Shrinithivihahshini; Srinivasan, Balakrishnan; Rengaraj, Chithradevi; Mariyaselvam, Sheelamary

    2018-01-01

    The present study focused on the shoreline environment of urban and industrial areas, and the aim of this study was to assess the coastal water quality in the Gulf of Mannar Biosphere Reserve. Water samples were collected from five different coastal sites during the premonsoon and monsoon seasons. The samples were analyzed following the standard methods. The results showed that the levels of microbiological indicators in the samples highly exceeded the regional and national standard seawater permissible limits, and environmental parameters such as the total suspended solid and dissolved oxygen were affected significantly (p<0.05). To identify frequent pollution indicators, their levels should be estimated to determine possible pollution in coastal ecosystems due to human interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Total 2004 results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-02-01

    This document presents the 2004 results of Total Group: consolidated account, special items, number of shares, market environment, adjustment for amortization of Sanofi-Aventis merger-related intangibles, 4. quarter 2004 results (operating and net incomes, cash flow), upstream (results, production, reserves, recent highlights), downstream (results, refinery throughput, recent highlights), chemicals (results, recent highlights), Total's full year 2004 results (operating and net income, cash flow), 2005 sensitivities, Total SA parent company accounts and proposed dividend, adoption of IFRS accounting, summary and outlook, main operating information by segment for the 4. quarter and full year 2004: upstream (combined liquids and gas production by region, liquids production by region, gas production by region), downstream (refined product sales by region, chemicals), Total financial statements: consolidated statement of income, consolidated balance sheet (assets, liabilities and shareholder's equity), consolidated statements of cash flows, business segments information. (J.S.)

  5. B.C. Indians Living Off Reserve: Some Economic Aspects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanbury, W. T.

    The study examined the economic development of British Columbia (B.C.) Indians who have moved off-reserve. The discussion included: (1) obtaining the sample, (2) sample description, (3) reasons for living off-reserve, (4) employment opportunities, (5) income and poverty line, and (6) academic achievement. A total of 1,095 persons interviewed…

  6. Factors Affecting Home Ranges of Red Foxes in Ikh Nart Nature Reserve, Mongolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tserendorj Munkhzul

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Changes in red fox home range size in relation to environmental and intrinsic factors were studied using radio-telemetry during 2006–2008 in Ikh Nart Nature Reserve, southeastern Mongolia. We captured a total of 12 red foxes (8 females and 4 males and fi tted them with VHF radio-collars. Marked animals were tracked up to fi ve times a week to estimate home ranges. We also trapped small mammal and insects in different biotopes for 3 years to estimate relative abundance of prey. Our results showed that mean individual home range sizes varied widely and differed among years. There was variation in home ranges between adults versus juveniles, but no signifi cant difference was found between males versus females. In addition, mean home range size did not differ seasonally for pooled years. Variation in home ranges was best explained by a model that included covariates of year and age. We suggest that spatiotemporal changes in resource availability across years infl uenced home range dynamics of red foxes in our study.

  7. Use of BEIR V and UNSCEAR 1988 in radiation risk assessment: Lifetime total cancer mortality risk estimates at low doses and low dose rates for low-LET radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-12-01

    In November 1986, the Department of Defense (DoD) asked the Committee on Interagency Radiation Research and Policy Coordination (CIRRPC) to develop a coordinated Federal position on risk assessment for low levels of ionizing radiation. Since Federal risk assessment activities are based primarily on the scientific data and analyses in authoritative review documents prepared by groups like the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR), the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) and the United Nations' Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), DoD proposed that the CIRRPC Science Panel undertake the task of providing coordinated interagency positions on the use of information in the reports of such groups. The practice has been for individual Federal agencies to interpret and decide independently how to use the information provided in such reports. As a result of its deliberations, the Subpanel recommends two nominal risk estimates for lifetime total cancer mortality following whole-body exposure to low levels of low-LET ionizing radiation, one for the general population and one for the working-age population (see Section II). The recommended risk estimates reflect the general agreement of information in BEIR V and UNSCEAR 1988 for total cancer mortality. The Subpanel's risk estimates and associated statements are intended to meet the needs of the Federal agencies for: (a) values that are current; (b) values that are relevant to the low-dose and low dose-rate ionizing radiation exposures principally encountered in carrying out Federal responsibilities; (c) a statement of the change in the estimates of lifetime total cancer mortality relative to estimates in previous authoritative review documents; and (d) a practical statement on the scientific uncertainty associated with applying the lifetime total cancer mortality values at very low doses

  8. Wind offering in energy and reserve markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soares, Tiago; Pinson, Pierre; Morais, Hugo

    2016-01-01

    The increasing penetration of wind generation in power systems to fulfil the ambitious European targets will make wind power producers to play an even more important role in the future power system. Wind power producers are being incentivized to participate in reserve markets to increase...... their revenue, since currently wind turbine/farm technologies allow them to provide ancillary services. Thus, wind power producers are to develop offering strategies for participation in both energy and reserve markets, accounting for market rules, while ensuring optimal revenue. We consider a proportional...... offering strategy to optimally decide upon participation in both markets by maximizing expected revenue from day-ahead decisions while accounting for estimated regulation costs for failing to provide the services. An evaluation of considering the same proportional splitting of energy and reserve in both...

  9. Sensorless Reserved Power Control Strategy for Two-Stage Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sangwongwanich, Ariya; Yang, Yongheng; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2016-01-01

    Due to still increasing penetration level of grid-connected Photovoltaic (PV) systems, advanced active power control functionalities have been introduced in grid regulations. A reserved power control, where the active power from the PV panels is reserved during operation, is required for grid...... support. In this paper, a cost-effective solution to realize the reserved power control for grid-connected PV systems is proposed. The proposed solution routinely employs a Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) control to estimate the available PV power and a Constant Power Generation (CPG) control...... to achieve the power reserve. In this method, the irradiance measurements that have been used in conventional control schemes to estimate the available PV power are not required, and thereby being a sensorless solution. Simulations and experimental tests have been performed on a 3-kW two-stage single...

  10. Estimating oil product demand in Indonesia using a cointegrating error correction model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahl, C.

    2001-01-01

    Indonesia's long oil production history and large population mean that Indonesian oil reserves, per capita, are the lowest in OPEC and that, eventually, Indonesia will become a net oil importer. Policy-makers want to forestall this day, since oil revenue comprised around a quarter of both the government budget and foreign exchange revenues for the fiscal years 1997/98. To help policy-makers determine how economic growth and oil-pricing policy affect the consumption of oil products, we estimate the demand for six oil products and total petroleum consumption, using an error correction-cointegration approach, and compare it with estimates on a lagged endogenous model using data for 1970-95. (author)

  11. Evaluation of reserved hepatic function in patients with hepatobiliary tumor by {sup 99m}Tc-GSA. Effect of hyperbilirubinemia and usefulness of regional reserved hepatic functional imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin Wu; Ishikawa, Nobuyoshi; Takeda, Tohoru; Sato, Motohiro; Todoroki, Takeshi; Itai, Yuji [Tsukuba Univ., Ibaraki (Japan). Inst. of Clinical Medicine; Fukunaga, Kiyoshi; Okumura, Toshiyuki; Hatakeyama, Rokurou

    1996-02-01

    The evaluation of the reserved hepatic function was performed by {sup 99m}Tc-galactosyl serum albumin ({sup 99m}Tc-GSA) in 70 patients with hepatobiliary tumor. The dynamic study was performed to evaluate global reserved hepatic function following the intravenous bolus injection of {sup 99m}Tc-GSA, and the hepatic single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) was obtained to assess the regional reserved hepatic function. The functional hepatic index (LHL{sub 15}) was derived from liver time-activity data, and it was compared with serum total-bilirubin level, serum albumin level and plasma disappearance rate of indocyanine green (ICG{sub 15}). In the patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, LHL{sub 15} value agreed well with ICG{sub 15} value, serum total-bilirubin level, and serum albumin level. Moderate or severe hepatic dysfunction was observed at 65.4% of these patients. In the patients with cholangiocellular carcinoma, a discrepancy of LHL{sub 15} value and ICG{sub 15} value was observed. Increment of the ICG{sub 15} value was correlated with that of the serum total-bilirubin level, whereas the correlation was not observed between the LHL{sub 15} value and the serum total-bilirubin level. These results indicate that {sup 99m}Tc-GSA scintigraphy can evaluate the reserved hepatic function without the embellishment of jaundice. This method is useful for assessing the global and regional reserved hepatic function. (author).

  12. Are Private Reserves Effective for Jaguar Conservation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmina E Gutiérrez-González

    Full Text Available We present the first study of density and apparent survival for a jaguar (Panthera onca population in northern Mexico using 13 years of camera trap data from 2000 to 2012. We used the Barker robust design model which combines data from closed sampling periods and resight data between these periods to estimate apparent survival and abundance. We identified 467 jaguar pictures that corresponded to 48 jaguar individuals. We included camera type and field technician as covariates for detection probabilities. We used three covariates to evaluate the effect of reserve on jaguar apparent survival: i private reserve creation ii later reserve expansions, and iii cattle ranches' conservation activities. We found that the use of digital cameras in addition to film cameras increased detection probability by a factor of 6x compared with the use of only film cameras (p = 0.34 ± 0.05 and p = 0.05 ± 0.02 respectively in the closed period and more than three times in the open period (R = 0.91 ± 0.08 and R = 0.30 ± 0.13 mixed and film cameras respectively. Our availability estimates showed no temporary emigration and a fidelity probability of 1. Despite an increase of apparent survival probability from 0.47 ± 0.15 to 0.56 ± 0.11 after 2007, no single covariate explained the change in these point estimates. Mean jaguar density was 1.87 ± 0.47 jaguars/100 km2. We found that 13 years of jaguar population monitoring with our sampling size were not enough for detecting changes in survival or density. Our results provide a baseline for studies evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas and the inclusion of ranch owners in jaguar conservation programs and long-term population viability.

  13. A Flexible Reservation Algorithm for Advance Network Provisioning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Balman, Mehmet; Chaniotakis, Evangelos; Shoshani, Arie; Sim, Alex

    2010-04-12

    Many scientific applications need support from a communication infrastructure that provides predictable performance, which requires effective algorithms for bandwidth reservations. Network reservation systems such as ESnet's OSCARS, establish guaranteed bandwidth of secure virtual circuits for a certain bandwidth and length of time. However, users currently cannot inquire about bandwidth availability, nor have alternative suggestions when reservation requests fail. In general, the number of reservation options is exponential with the number of nodes n, and current reservation commitments. We present a novel approach for path finding in time-dependent networks taking advantage of user-provided parameters of total volume and time constraints, which produces options for earliest completion and shortest duration. The theoretical complexity is only O(n2r2) in the worst-case, where r is the number of reservations in the desired time interval. We have implemented our algorithm and developed efficient methodologies for incorporation into network reservation frameworks. Performance measurements confirm the theoretical predictions.

  14. Geospatial assessment and monitoring of historical forest cover changes (1920-2012) in Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve, Western Ghats, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satish, K V; Saranya, K R L; Reddy, C Sudhakar; Krishna, P Hari; Jha, C S; Rao, P V V Prasada

    2014-12-01

    Deforestation in the biosphere reserves, which are key Protected Areas has negative impacts on biodiversity, climate, carbon fluxes and livelihoods. Comprehensive study of deforestation in biosphere reserves is required to assess the impact of the management effectiveness. This article assesses the changes in forest cover in various zones and protected areas of Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve, the first declared biosphere reserve in India which forms part of Western Ghats-a global biodiversity hotspot. In this study, we have mapped the forests from earliest available topographical maps and multi-temporal satellite data spanning from 1920's to 2012 period. Mapping of spatial extent of forest cover, vegetation types and land cover was carried out using visual interpretation technique. A grid cell of 1 km × 1 km was generated for time series change analysis to understand the patterns in spatial distribution of forest cover (1920-1973-1989-1999-2006-2012). The total forest area of biosphere reserve was found to be 5,806.5 km(2) (93.8 % of total geographical area) in 1920. Overall loss of forest cover was estimated as 1,423.6 km(2) (24.5 % of the total forest) with reference to 1920. Among the six Protected Areas, annual deforestation rate of >0.5 was found in Wayanad wildlife sanctuary during 1920-1973. The deforestation in Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve is mainly attributed to conversion of forests to plantations and agriculture along with submergence due to construction of dams during 1920 to 1989. Grid wise analysis indicates that 851 grids have undergone large-scale negative changes of >75 ha of forest loss during 1920-1973 while, only 15 grids have shown >75 ha loss during 1973-1989. Annual net rate of deforestation for the period of 1920 to 1973 was calculated as 0.5 followed by 0.1 for 1973 to 1989. Our analysis shows that there was large-scale deforestation before the declaration of area as biosphere reserve in 1986; however, the deforestation has drastically

  15. Estimation of myocardial flow reserve utilizing an ultrafast cardiac SPECT: Comparison with coronary angiography, fractional flow reserve, and the SYNTAX score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyagawa, Masao; Nishiyama, Yoshiko; Uetani, Teruyoshi; Ogimoto, Akiyoshi; Ikeda, Shuntaro; Ishimura, Hayato; Watanabe, Emiri; Tashiro, Rami; Tanabe, Yuki; Kido, Teruhito; Kurata, Akira; Mochizuki, Teruhito

    2017-10-01

    Quantitative assessment of myocardial flow reserve (MFR) by single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) is challenging but may facilitate evaluation of multi-vessel coronary artery disease (CAD). We enrolled 153 patients with suspected or known CAD, referred for pharmacological stress MPI. They underwent a 99m Tc-perfusion stress/rest SPECT with an ultrafast cadmium-zinc-telluride (CZT) camera. Dynamic data were acquired and time-activity curves fitted to a 1-tissue compartment analysis with input function. K1 was assigned for stress and rest data. The MFR index (MFRi) was calculated as K1 stress/K1 at-rest. The findings were validated by invasive coronary angiography in 69 consecutive patients. The global MFRi was 1.46 (1.16-1.76), 1.33 (1.12-1.54), and 1.18 (1.01-1.35), for 1-vessel disease (VD), 2-VD, and 3-VD, respectively. In the 3-VD, global MFRi was lower than that in 0-VD (1.63 [1.22-2.04], Pfraction (OR: 61.6 [57.5-66.0]), and global MFRi (OR: 119.6 [111.5-127.7], P=0.002). A cut-off value of 1.3 yielded 93.3% sensitivity and 75.9% specificity for diagnosing 3-VD. Fractional flow reserve positively correlated with regional MFRi (r=0.62, P=0.008), and the SYNTAX score correlated negatively with global MFRi (r=0.567, P=0.0003). We developed and validated a clinically available method for MFR quantification by dynamic 99m Tc-perfusion SPECT utilizing a CZT camera, which improves the detectability of multi-vessel CAD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Estimating Contact Exposure in Football Using the Head Impact Exposure Estimate

    OpenAIRE

    Kerr, Zachary Y.; Littleton, Ashley C.; Cox, Leah M.; DeFreese, J.D.; Varangis, Eleanna; Lynall, Robert C.; Schmidt, Julianne D.; Marshall, Stephen W.; Guskiewicz, Kevin M.

    2015-01-01

    Over the past decade, there has been significant debate regarding the effect of cumulative subconcussive head impacts on short and long-term neurological impairment. This debate remains unresolved, because valid epidemiological estimates of athletes' total contact exposure are lacking. We present a measure to estimate the total hours of contact exposure in football over the majority of an athlete's lifespan. Through a structured oral interview, former football players provided information rel...

  17. Stereological Methods for Estimation of Total Number of Particles in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In certain organs, like the brain, it is important to count the number of neurons associated with a particular function or region. The count gives an estimate of the electronic units available for a specific task or are endowed with a quantum of electrical energy. Similar studies can be extended in organs like the kidney, glands ...

  18. A Guide for Implementing Total Quality Management in the U.S. Coast Guard Reserve

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-12-01

    quality field were reviewed. The main ones studied were: Total Quality (Deming 1988); Single-Minute Exchange of Die (SMED) (Shingo 1985); Poka - yoke (mistake...Productivity Press, 1985. Shingo, Shigeo. Zero Quality Control: Source Inspection and the Poka - Yoke System. Cambridge, MA: Productivity Press, 1986. Snead

  19. Estimation of the Arterial Fraction of Total Hepatic Flow from Radionuclide Angiogram Using 99mTc-DISIDA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Hae Gin; Lim, Gye Yeon; Yang, Il Kwon; Kim, Hack Hee; Lim, Jung Ik; Bahk, Yong Whee; Han, Sok Won; Han, Nam Ik; Lee, Young Sok

    1991-01-01

    Arterial fraction of total hepatic blood flow was estimated by a new method, slope method, on radionuclide angiogram using 99m Tc-DISIDA and was compared with that from 99m Tc-Phytate radionuclide angiogram. This study included 11 of normal subjects, 37 of intermediate group with various liver diseases, and 25 patients with liver cirrhosis. We analyzed the data with slope method from radionuclide angiograms and the results were compared with hepatic arterial fractions from uptake method, introduced by Lee et al. at 1986. The hepatic arterial fractions from radionuclide angiograms using 99m Tc-DISIDA and 99m Tc- Phytate were 0.32 ± 0.09 and 0.31 ± 0.11 respectively in normal subjects, and 0.75 ± 0.18 and 0.77 ± 0.21 respectively in patients with liver cirrhosis. The hepatic arterial fractions by the slope method was well correlated with those of the uptake method on 99m Tc-DISIDA scan. There was high correlation between the hepatic arterial fractions from 99m Tc-DISIDA and 99m Tc-Phytate scans. Hepatic arterial fraction estimated by the slope method is a useful index for the diagnosis of liver cirrhosis and the evaluation of status of portal hypertension.

  20. Estimating Inorganic Arsenic Exposure from U.S. Rice and Total Water Intakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantha, Madhavi; Yeary, Edward; Trent, John; Creed, Patricia A; Kubachka, Kevin; Hanley, Traci; Shockey, Nohora; Heitkemper, Douglas; Caruso, Joseph; Xue, Jianping; Rice, Glenn; Wymer, Larry; Creed, John T

    2017-05-30

    Among nonoccupationally exposed U.S. residents, drinking water and diet are considered primary exposure pathways for inorganic arsenic (iAs). In drinking water, iAs is the primary form of arsenic (As), while dietary As speciation techniques are used to differentiate iAs from less toxic arsenicals in food matrices. Our goal was to estimate the distribution of iAs exposure rates from drinking water intakes and rice consumption in the U.S. population and ethnic- and age-based subpopulations. The distribution of iAs in drinking water was estimated by population, weighting the iAs concentrations for each drinking water utility in the Second Six-Year Review data set. To estimate the distribution of iAs concentrations in rice ingested by U.S. consumers, 54 grain-specific, production-weighted composites of rice obtained from U.S. mills were extracted and speciated using both a quantitative dilute nitric acid extraction and speciation (DNAS) and an in vitro gastrointestinal assay to provide an upper bound and bioaccessible estimates, respectively. Daily drinking water intake and rice consumption rate distributions were developed using data from the What We Eat in America (WWEIA) study. Using these data sets, the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) model estimated mean iAs exposures from drinking water and rice were 4.2 μg/day and 1.4 μg/day, respectively, for the entire U.S. population. The Tribal, Asian, and Pacific population exhibited the highest mean daily exposure of iAs from cooked rice (2.8 μg/day); the mean exposure rate for children between ages 1 and 2 years in this population is 0.104 μg/kg body weight (BW)/day. An average consumer drinking 1.5 L of water daily that contains between 2 and 3 ng iAs/mL is exposed to approximately the same amount of iAs as a mean Tribal, Asian, and Pacific consumer is exposed to from rice. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP418. Among nonoccupationally exposed U.S. residents, drinking water and diet are considered

  1. A method comparison of total and HMW adiponectin: HMW/total adiponectin ratio varies versus total adiponectin, independent of clinical condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Andel, Merel; Drent, Madeleine L; van Herwaarden, Antonius E; Ackermans, Mariëtte T; Heijboer, Annemieke C

    2017-02-01

    Total and high-molecular-weight (HMW) adiponectin have been associated with endocrine and cardiovascular pathology. As no gold standard is available, the discussion about biological relevance of isoforms is complicated. In our study we perform a method comparison between two commercially available assays measuring HMW and total adiponectin, in various patient groups, thus contributing further to this discussion. We determined levels of HMW and total adiponectin using assays by Lumipulse® and Millipore® respectively, in 126 patients with different clinical characteristics (n=29 healthy volunteers, n=22 dialysis patients, n=25 elderly with body mass index (BMI) LUMIPULSE ∗0.5-0.9=total adiponectin MILLIPORE , albeit with significant deviation from linearity (p<0.001). Pearson's correlation was R=0.987 (p=0.000). No significant differences between patient groups were observed (p=0.190). The HMW/total adiponectin ratio varies with total adiponectin concentration independent of clinical conditions studied. Our results imply that total and HMW adiponectin have similar utility when assessing adiponectin levels in blood, as the ratio is independent of clinical condition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Comparative methane estimation from cattle based on total CO2 production using different techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md N. Haque

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to compare the precision of CH4 estimates using calculated CO2 (HP by the CO2 method (CO2T and measured CO2 in the respiration chamber (CO2R. The CO2R and CO2T study was conducted as a 3 × 3 Latin square design where 3 Dexter heifers were allocated to metabolic cages for 3 periods. Each period consisted of 2 weeks of adaptation followed by 1 week of measurement with the CO2R and CO2T. The average body weight of the heifer was 226 ± 11 kg (means ± SD. They were fed a total mixed ration, twice daily, with 1 of 3 supplements: wheat (W, molasses (M, or molasses mixed with sodium bicarbonate (Mbic. The dry mater intake (DMI; kg/day was significantly greater (P < 0.001 in the metabolic cage compared with that in the respiration chamber. The daily CH4 (L/day emission was strongly correlated (r = 0.78 between CO2T and CO2R. The daily CH4 (L/kg DMI emission by the CO2T was in the same magnitude as by the CO2R. The measured CO2 (L/day production in the respiration chamber was not different (P = 0.39 from the calculated CO2 production using the CO2T. This result concludes a reasonable accuracy and precision of CH4 estimation by the CO2T compared with the CO2R.

  3. Polyamines: total daily intake in adolescents compared to the intake estimated from the Swedish Nutrition Recommendations Objectified (SNO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Atiya Ali

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Dietary polyamines have been shown to give a significant contribution to the body pool of polyamines. Knowing the levels of polyamines (putrescine, spermidine, and spermine in different foods and the contribution of daily food choice to polyamine intake is of interest, due to the association of these bioactive amines to health and disease. Objective: To estimate polyamine intake and food contribution to this intake in adolescents compared to a diet fulfilling the Swedish Nutrition Recommendations. Design: A cross-sectional study of dietary intake in adolescents and an ‘ideal diet’ (Swedish nutrition recommendations objectified [SNO] list of foods was used to compute polyamine intake using a database of polyamine contents of foods. For polyamine intake estimation, 7-day weighed food records collected from 93 adolescents were entered into dietetic software (Dietist XP including data on polyamine contents of foods. The content of polyamines in foods recommended according to SNO was entered in the same way. Results: The adolescents’ mean daily polyamine intake was 316±170 µmol/day, while the calculated contribution according to SNO was considerably higher with an average polyamine intake of 541 µmol/day. In both adolescent's intake and SNO, fruits contributed to almost half of the total polyamine intake. The reason why the intake among the adolescents was lower than the one calculated from SNO was mainly due to the low vegetable consumption in the adolescents group. Conclusions: The average daily total polyamine intake was similar to that previously reported in Europe. With an ‘ideal’ diet according to Swedish nutrition recommendations, the intake of this bioactive non-nutrient would be higher than that reported by our adolescents and also higher than that previously reported from Europe.

  4. Fundamental Drivers of the Cost and Price of Operating Reserves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hummon, Marissa [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Denholm, Paul [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jorgenson, Jennie [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Palchak, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kirby, Brendan [Kirby Consultant; Ma, Ookie [U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)

    2013-07-01

    Operating reserves impose a cost on the electric power system by forcing system operators to keep partially loaded spinning generators available for responding to system contingencies variable demand. In many regions of the United States, thermal power plants provide a large fraction of the operating reserve requirement. Alternative sources of operating reserves, such as demand response and energy storage, may provide more efficient sources of these reserves. However, to estimate the potential value of these services, the cost of reserve services under various grid conditions must first be established. This analysis used a commercial grid simulation tool to evaluate the cost and price of several operating reserve services, including spinning contingency reserves and upward regulation reserves. These reserve products were evaluated in a utility system in the western United States, considering different system flexibilities, renewable energy penetration, and other sensitivities. The analysis demonstrates that the price of operating reserves depend highly on many assumptions regarding the operational flexibility of the generation fleet, including ramp rates and the fraction of fleet available to provide reserves.

  5. Wind offering in energy and reserve markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, T.; Pinson, P.; Morais, H.

    2016-09-01

    The increasing penetration of wind generation in power systems to fulfil the ambitious European targets will make wind power producers to play an even more important role in the future power system. Wind power producers are being incentivized to participate in reserve markets to increase their revenue, since currently wind turbine/farm technologies allow them to provide ancillary services. Thus, wind power producers are to develop offering strategies for participation in both energy and reserve markets, accounting for market rules, while ensuring optimal revenue. We consider a proportional offering strategy to optimally decide upon participation in both markets by maximizing expected revenue from day-ahead decisions while accounting for estimated regulation costs for failing to provide the services. An evaluation of considering the same proportional splitting of energy and reserve in both day- ahead and balancing market is performed. A set of numerical examples illustrate the behavior of such strategy. An important conclusion is that the optimal split of the available wind power between energy and reserve strongly depends upon prices and penalties on both market trading floors.

  6. Estimating Contact Exposure in Football Using the Head Impact Exposure Estimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Zachary Y; Littleton, Ashley C; Cox, Leah M; DeFreese, J D; Varangis, Eleanna; Lynall, Robert C; Schmidt, Julianne D; Marshall, Stephen W; Guskiewicz, Kevin M

    2015-07-15

    Over the past decade, there has been significant debate regarding the effect of cumulative subconcussive head impacts on short and long-term neurological impairment. This debate remains unresolved, because valid epidemiological estimates of athletes' total contact exposure are lacking. We present a measure to estimate the total hours of contact exposure in football over the majority of an athlete's lifespan. Through a structured oral interview, former football players provided information related to primary position played and participation in games and practice contacts during the pre-season, regular season, and post-season of each year of their high school, college, and professional football careers. Spring football for college was also included. We calculated contact exposure estimates for 64 former football players (n = 32 college football only, n = 32 professional and college football). The head impact exposure estimate (HIEE) discriminated between individuals who stopped after college football, and individuals who played professional football (p < 0.001). The HIEE measure was independent of concussion history (p = 0.82). Estimating total hours of contact exposure may allow for the detection of differences between individuals with variation in subconcussive impacts, regardless of concussion history. This measure is valuable for the surveillance of subconcussive impacts and their associated potential negative effects.

  7. Evaluation of total aboveground biomass and total merchantable biomass in Missouri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael E. Goerndt; David R. Larsen; Charles D. Keating

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the state of Missouri has been converting to biomass weight rather than volume as the standard measurement of wood for buying and selling sawtimber. Therefore, there is a need to identify accurate and precise methods of estimating whole tree biomass and merchantable biomass of harvested trees as well as total standing biomass of live timber for...

  8. Oil reserves viewed from a geological and a financial perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathieu, Y.; Pozzi, C.

    2004-01-01

    Exactly how high are the current levels of oil reserves owned by private companies in the oil sector? To what extent are the figures that they provide in their annual balance sheets reliable? Finally, what is the relationship between their declared reserves and the value of their share prices in the financial markets? In order to answer these questions, we need to consider the various links existing between on the one hand the various problems related to the technical estimation of deposits and on the other hand the economic thinking behind their use. On 22 June 2004, a discussion focusing on these themes was organised by the Centre de Geopolitique de l'Energie et des Matieres Premieres (Centre for Energy and Raw Material Geopolitics) of Dauphine University) as part of the conference: 'Oil reserves viewed from a geological and a financial perspective'. The result of the debates was clear: various methodological justifications, several accounting standards and a lack of serious monitoring have led to oil companies developing the habit of increasing the crude reserves previously declared each year, to the extent that this practice has become a virtual expectation within the financial markets. The case of Shell, a company an whose professionalism has never been called into question until last year, has clearly revealed the dangers related to this situation. The major losses in value suffered by the Anglo-Dutch company due to the brutal reaction following the unexpected downward revision of its estimated deposits provide clear proof of a latent problem. It is to be hoped that this experience will have a paradigmatic effect, bringing about a rethink of current standards with regard to the estimation of reserves, one which is more necessary today than at any time in the past. Here, we are presenting two articles providing an overview of the discussion underway and introducing two separate points of view. The first article (by Yves Mathieu of the IFP) introduces the

  9. Financial Security and Optimal Scale of Foreign Exchange Reserve in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangyou Zhou

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The study of how foreign exchange reserves maintain financial security is of vital significance. This paper provides simulations and estimations of the optimal scale of foreign exchange reserves under the background of possible shocks to China’s economy due to the further opening of China’s financial market and the sudden stop of capital inflows. Focused on the perspective of financial security, this article tentatively constructs an optimal scale analysis framework that is based on a utility maximization of the foreign exchange reserve, and selects relevant data to simulate the optimal scale of China’s foreign exchange reserves. The results show that: (1 the main reason for the fast growth of the Chinese foreign exchange reserve scale is the structural trouble of its double international payment surplus, which creates long-term appreciation expectations for the exchange rate that make it difficult for international capital inflows and excess foreign exchange reserves to enter the real economic growth mechanism under the model of China’s export-driven economy growth; (2 the average optimal scale of the foreign exchange reserve in case of the sudden stop of capital inflows was calculated through parameter estimation and numerical simulation to be 13.53% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP between 1994 and 2017; (3 with the function of the foreign exchange reserves changing from meeting basic transaction demands to meeting financial security demands, the effect of the foreign exchange reserve maintaining the state’s financial security is becoming more and more obvious. Therefore, the structure of foreign exchange reserve assets should be optimized in China, and we will give full play to the special role of foreign exchange reserve in safeguarding a country’s financial security.

  10. Uranium - raw material reserves for coming generations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keutner, H.

    1981-01-01

    Large uranium occurences have been discovered in the South of Mexico. The deposits are situated in the Sierra Mixteca. Reserves of 9.400 tons had been at Mexico's disposal even before these new discoveries. The quantitiy discovered recentyl amounts to 20.000 tons. The uranium reserves available apart from those in centrally controlled economic systems are presently estimated at five million tons. Meanwhile American scientists have found out that all the rivers of the world transport about 16.000 tons of uranium from the continents into the oceans per annum. The energy value of this washed out amount of uranium corresponds to the 25-fold world power demand of today. US scientists have discovered that the oceans can provide uranium for about seven million years of the present world energy demand. While the petroleum reserves decrease worldwide it seems that the exploration of uranium has just been started. (orig.) [de

  11. Herpetofauna of gunung panti forest reserve, johor, peninsular malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onn, Chan Kin; Grismer, L Lee; Matsui, Masafumi; Nishikawa, Kanto; Wood, Perry Lee; Grismer, Jesse Leland; Belabut, Daicus; Ahmad, Norhayati

    2010-08-01

    A survey was carried out at Gunung Panti Forest Reserve, Johor from 3-7 August 2006, 2-5 June 2008, and 28-31 July 2008 to inventory the herpetofauna therein. An updated checklist for the area which incorporates findings from previous studies is provided. In total, 37 species of frogs, 1 turtle, 27 lizards, and 11 snakes have been recorded from Gunung Panti Forest Reserve, Johor.

  12. An unbiased stereological method for efficiently quantifying the innervation of the heart and other organs based on total length estimations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mühlfeld, Christian; Papadakis, Tamara; Krasteva, Gabriela

    2010-01-01

    Quantitative information about the innervation is essential to analyze the structure-function relationships of organs. So far, there has been no unbiased stereological tool for this purpose. This study presents a new unbiased and efficient method to quantify the total length of axons in a given...... reference volume, illustrated on the left ventricle of the mouse heart. The method is based on the following steps: 1) estimation of the reference volume; 2) randomization of location and orientation using appropriate sampling techniques; 3) counting of nerve fiber profiles hit by a defined test area within...

  13. Are traditional body fat equations and anthropometry valid to estimate body fat in children and adolescents living with HIV?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Luiz Rodrigo Augustemak de; Martins, Priscila Custódio; Junior, Carlos Alencar Souza Alves; Castro, João Antônio Chula de; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Petroski, Edio Luiz

    The aim of this study was to assess the validity of traditional anthropometric equations and to develop predictive equations of total body and trunk fat for children and adolescents living with HIV based on anthropometric measurements. Forty-eight children and adolescents of both sexes (24 boys) aged 7-17 years, living in Santa Catarina, Brazil, participated in the study. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry was used as the reference method to evaluate total body and trunk fat. Height, body weight, circumferences and triceps, subscapular, abdominal and calf skinfolds were measured. The traditional equations of Lohman and Slaughter were used to estimate body fat. Multiple regression models were fitted to predict total body fat (Model 1) and trunk fat (Model 2) using a backward selection procedure. Model 1 had an R 2 =0.85 and a standard error of the estimate of 1.43. Model 2 had an R 2 =0.80 and standard error of the estimate=0.49. The traditional equations of Lohman and Slaughter showed poor performance in estimating body fat in children and adolescents living with HIV. The prediction models using anthropometry provided reliable estimates and can be used by clinicians and healthcare professionals to monitor total body and trunk fat in children and adolescents living with HIV. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Infectologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  14. Estimation of total alkaloid in Chitrakadivati by UV-Spectrophotometer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajanal, Manjunath; Gundkalle, Mahadev B; Nayak, Shradda U

    2012-04-01

    Herbal formulation standardization by adopting newer technique is need of the hour in the field of Ayurvedic pharmaceutical industry. As very few reports exist. These kind of studies would certainly widen the herbal research area. Chitrakadivati is one such popular herbal formulation used in Ayurveda. Many of its ingredients are known for presence of alkaloids. Presence of alkaloid was tested qualitatively by Dragondroff's method then subjected to quantitative estimation by UV-Spectrophotometer. This method is based on the reaction between alkaloid and bromocresol green (BCG). Study discloses that out of 16 ingredients, 9 contain alkaloid. Chitrakadivati has shown 0.16% of concentration of alkaloid and which is significantly higher than it's individual ingredients.

  15. Estimated radiological effects of the normal discharge of radioactivity from nuclear power plants in the Netherlands with a total capacity of 3500 MWe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lugt, G. van der; Wijker, H.; Kema, N.V.

    1977-01-01

    In the Netherlands discussions are going on about the installation of three nuclear power plants, leading with the two existing plants to a total capacity of 3500 MWe. To have an impression of the radiological impact of this program, calculations were carried out concerning the population doses due to the discharge of radioactivity from the plants during normal operation. The discharge via the ventilation stack gives doses due to noble gases, halogens and particulate material. The population dose due to the halogens in the grass-milk-man chain is estimated using the real distribution of grass-land around the reactor sites. It could be concluded that the population dose due to the contamination of crops and fruit is negligeable. A conservative estimation is made for the dose due to the discharge of tritium. The population dose due to the discharge in the cooling water is calculated using the following pathways: drinking water; consumption of fish; consumption of meat from animals fed with fish products. The individual doses caused by the normal discharge of a 1000 MWe plant appeared to be very low, mostly below 1 mrem/year. The population dose is in the order of some tens manrems. The total dose of the 5 nuclear power plants to the dutch population is not more than 70 manrem. Using a linear dose-effect relationship the health effects to the population are estimated and compared with the normal frequency

  16. Reserves for shutdown/dismantling and disposal in nuclear technology. Theses and recommendations on reform options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, Bettina

    2012-01-01

    The study on reserves for shutdown, dismantling and disposal of nuclear facilities covers the following topics: cost for shutdown, dismantling and disposal and amount and transparency of nuclear reserves, solution by y stock regulated by public law for long-term liabilities, and improvement of the protection in the event of insolvency for the remaining EVU reserves for short- and intermediate-term liabilities. The appendix includes estimations and empirical values for the cost of shutdown and dismantling, estimation of disposal costs, and a summary of Swiss studies on dismantling and disposal and transfer to Germany.

  17. PENDUGAAN UMUR SIMPAN JAGUNG MANIS BERDASARKAN KANDUNGAN TOTAL PADATAN TERLARUT DENGAN MODEL ARRHENIUS (Shelf Life Estimation of Sweet Corn Based on Its Total Soluble Solid by Using Arrhenius Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita Khatir

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Sweet corn has short shelf life at room temperature storage in the tropical countries (28-33°C. The quality deterioration of sweet corn can be determined by the decrease of its sugar content. The study aimed to estimate the shelf life of sweet corn based on the reduction of its total soluble solid (TSS by using Arrhenius model. The samples were prepared from fresh harvested corn stored for 10 days at 3 different temperatures of 5, 15 and 28 °C. Total soluble solid (TSS were analyzed every day by using abbe refractrometer. Organoleptic analysis was used by using hedonic scales from 1 to 7. The analysis was conducted until respondents had graded the samples at score 5 (dislike slightly, 6 (dislike and approaches can be used to calculate the shelf life of sweet corn. The acceleration factor for the TSS degradation at null approach, it was estimated that if the sweet corn were stored at temperature of 30, 25, 20, 15, 10 and 5°C, the shelf temperatures, the shelf life of sweet corn would be 3.7, 4.5, 5.6, 6.8, 8.4, and 10.3 days. In conclusion, the shelf life predictions of sweet corn were valid well with the experimental results. Keywords: Sweet corn, shelf life, total soluble solid   ABSTRAK Umur simpan jagung manis relatif singkat apalagi kalau disimpan pada suhu ruang di negara-negara tropis (28-32°C. Kerusakan jagung manis dapat diindikasikan dengan penurunan kandungan gulanya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menduga umur simpan jagung manis berdasarkan reaksi penurunan kandungan total padatan terlarutnya (TPT dengan pendekatan model Arrhenius. Jagung manis segar yang baru siap panen segera disimpan selama 10 hari pada 3 kombinasi suhu yaitu 5, 15 dan 28°C. Setiap hari dilakukan analisis kandungan TPT dengan . Uji organoleptik dilakukan dengan skala hedonik 1-7. Proses pengamatan dihentikan apabila responden telah memberikan nilai 5 (agak tidak suka, 6 (tidak suka dan 7 (sangat tidak suka. Pendekatan model Arrhenius dilakukan dengan dua

  18. Estimating total alkalinity for coastal ocean acidification monitoring at regional to continental scales in Australian coastal waters

    KAUST Repository

    Baldry, Kimberlee; Hardman-Mountford, Nick; Greenwood, Jim

    2017-01-01

    Owing to a lack of resources, tools, and knowledge, the natural variability and distribution of Total Alkalinity (TA) has been poorly characterised in coastal waters globally, yet variability is known to be high in coastal regions due to the complex interactions of oceanographic, biotic, and terrestrially-influenced processes. This is a particularly challenging task for the vast Australian coastline, however, it is also this vastness that demands attention in the face of ocean acidification (OA). Australian coastal waters have high biodiversity and endemism, and are home to large areas of coral reef, including the Great Barrier Reef, the largest coral reef system in the world. Ocean acidification threatens calcifying marine organisms by hindering calcification rates, threatening the structural integrity of coral reefs and other ecosystems. Tracking the progression of OA in different coastal regions requires accurate knowledge of the variability in TA. Thus, estimation methods that can capture this variability at synoptic scales are needed. Multiple linear regression is a promising approach in this regard. Here, we compare a range of both simple and multiple linear regression models to the estimation of coastal TA from a range of variables, including salinity, temperature, chlorophyll-a concentration and nitrate concentration. We find that regionally parameterised models capture local variability better than more general coastal or open ocean parameterised models. The strongest contribution to model improvement came through incorporating temperature as an input variable as well as salinity. Further improvements were achieved through the incorporation of either nitrate or chlorophyll-a, with the combination of temperature, salinity, and nitrate constituting the minimum model in most cases. These results provide an approach that can be applied to satellite Earth observation and autonomous in situ platforms to improve synoptic scale estimation of TA in coastal waters.

  19. Estimating total alkalinity for coastal ocean acidification monitoring at regional to continental scales in Australian coastal waters

    KAUST Repository

    Baldry, Kimberlee

    2017-06-01

    Owing to a lack of resources, tools, and knowledge, the natural variability and distribution of Total Alkalinity (TA) has been poorly characterised in coastal waters globally, yet variability is known to be high in coastal regions due to the complex interactions of oceanographic, biotic, and terrestrially-influenced processes. This is a particularly challenging task for the vast Australian coastline, however, it is also this vastness that demands attention in the face of ocean acidification (OA). Australian coastal waters have high biodiversity and endemism, and are home to large areas of coral reef, including the Great Barrier Reef, the largest coral reef system in the world. Ocean acidification threatens calcifying marine organisms by hindering calcification rates, threatening the structural integrity of coral reefs and other ecosystems. Tracking the progression of OA in different coastal regions requires accurate knowledge of the variability in TA. Thus, estimation methods that can capture this variability at synoptic scales are needed. Multiple linear regression is a promising approach in this regard. Here, we compare a range of both simple and multiple linear regression models to the estimation of coastal TA from a range of variables, including salinity, temperature, chlorophyll-a concentration and nitrate concentration. We find that regionally parameterised models capture local variability better than more general coastal or open ocean parameterised models. The strongest contribution to model improvement came through incorporating temperature as an input variable as well as salinity. Further improvements were achieved through the incorporation of either nitrate or chlorophyll-a, with the combination of temperature, salinity, and nitrate constituting the minimum model in most cases. These results provide an approach that can be applied to satellite Earth observation and autonomous in situ platforms to improve synoptic scale estimation of TA in coastal waters.

  20. Analysis of digital subtraction coronary angiography for estimation of flow reserve in critical coronary stenosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohtoku, Shinya

    1988-01-01

    To examine the accuracy of digital subtraction angiographic assessment of coronary flow reserve in critical coronary stenosis, time-density curve was obtained from digital subtraction coronary angiograms for myocardial region of interest. Time to peak contrast(TPC) and time constant of the washout exponential curve(T) were measured in 14 patients with stable effort angina pectoris and critical one vessel lesion before and after percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty(PTCA). All patients had normal left ventricular ejection fraction (59 ± 7 %) and Tl 201 myocardial image at rest. The values of TPC and T were significantly shortened from 5.4 ± 1.3 to 4.5 ± 1.0 sec (p < 0.02) and from 10.9 ± 3.8 to 5.3 ± 1.3 sec(p < 0.001) after PTCA, respectively. However, in 9 of all patients TPC after PTCA showed approximately the same valued as those before PTCA. In 5 experimental dogs with critical circumflex stenosis, coronary flow(CF;Doppler flow meter) and systolic thickning of the posterior wall(by sonomicrometry) at rest were not different from control, however, contrast media-induced reactive hyperemia was markedly attenuated, accompanied with a significant of T (7.7 ± 4.5 vs 15.8 ± 10.9 sec, p < 0.01) and completely unchanged TPC (both 6.8 sec). With simultaneous tracing of CF and time-density curve, TPC and washout phase corresponded with contrast-induced transient CF reduction and hyperemic phase, respectively. We conclude that T might be more sensitive for estimation of CF is maintained almost normal, such as patients with stable effort angina pectoris having normal left ventricular wall motion at rest. (author)

  1. Estimating Total Fusion Cross Sections by Using a Coupled-Channel Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Ki-Seok; Cheoun, Myung-Ki [Soongsil University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, K. S. [Korea Aerospace University, Koyang (Korea, Republic of); Kim, T. H.; So, W. Y. [Kangwon National University at Dogye, Samcheok (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-01-15

    We calculate the total fusion cross sections for the {sup 6}He + {sup 209}Bi, {sup 6}Li + {sup 209}Bi,{sup 9}Be + {sup 208}Pb, {sup 10}Be + {sup 209}Bi, and {sup 11}Li + {sup 208}Pb systems by using a coupled-channel (CC) method and compare the results with the experimental data. In the CC approach for the total fusion cross sections, we exploit a globally determined Wood-Saxon potential with Aky¨uz-Winther parameters and couplings of the ground state to the low-lying excited states in the projectile and the target nuclei. The total fusion cross sections obtained with the CC are compared with those obtained without the CC couplings. The latter approach is tantamount to a one-dimensional barrier penetration model. Finally, our approach is applied to understand new data for the {sup 11}Li+{sup 208}Pb system. Possible ambiguities inherent in those approaches are discussed in detail for further applications to the fusion system of halo and/or neutron-rich nuclei.

  2. Carbon pool densities and a first estimate of the total carbon pool in the Mongolian forest-steppe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dulamsuren, Choimaa; Klinge, Michael; Degener, Jan; Khishigjargal, Mookhor; Chenlemuge, Tselmeg; Bat-Enerel, Banzragch; Yeruult, Yolk; Saindovdon, Davaadorj; Ganbaatar, Kherlenchimeg; Tsogtbaatar, Jamsran; Leuschner, Christoph; Hauck, Markus

    2016-02-01

    The boreal forest biome represents one of the most important terrestrial carbon stores, which gave reason to intensive research on carbon stock densities. However, such an analysis does not yet exist for the southernmost Eurosiberian boreal forests in Inner Asia. Most of these forests are located in the Mongolian forest-steppe, which is largely dominated by Larix sibirica. We quantified the carbon stock density and total carbon pool of Mongolia's boreal forests and adjacent grasslands and draw conclusions on possible future change. Mean aboveground carbon stock density in the interior of L. sibirica forests was 66 Mg C ha(-1) , which is in the upper range of values reported from boreal forests and probably due to the comparably long growing season. The density of soil organic carbon (SOC, 108 Mg C ha(-1) ) and total belowground carbon density (149 Mg C ha(-1) ) are at the lower end of the range known from boreal forests, which might be the result of higher soil temperatures and a thinner permafrost layer than in the central and northern boreal forest belt. Land use effects are especially relevant at forest edges, where mean carbon stock density was 188 Mg C ha(-1) , compared with 215 Mg C ha(-1) in the forest interior. Carbon stock density in grasslands was 144 Mg C ha(-1) . Analysis of satellite imagery of the highly fragmented forest area in the forest-steppe zone showed that Mongolia's total boreal forest area is currently 73 818 km(2) , and 22% of this area refers to forest edges (defined as the first 30 m from the edge). The total forest carbon pool of Mongolia was estimated at ~ 1.5-1.7 Pg C, a value which is likely to decrease in future with increasing deforestation and fire frequency, and global warming. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Optimization of flow reserve measurement using SPECT technology to evaluate the determinants of coronary microvascular dysfunction in diabetes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marini, Cecilia [CNR Institute of Bioimages and Molecular Physiology, Milan, Section of Genoa (Italy); Bezante, GianPaolo; Modonesi, Elisa; Rollando, Daniela; Balbi, Manrico; Brunelli, Claudio [University of Genoa, Department of Internal Medicine, Cardiology, Genoa (Italy); Gandolfo, Patrizia; Morbelli, Silvia D.; Armonino, Riccardo [University of Genoa, Department of Internal Medicine, Nuclear Medicine, Genoa (Italy); DePascale, Angelo; Maggi, Davide; Albertelli, Manuela; Cordera, Renzo [University of Genoa, Department of Endocrinological Metabolic Sciences, Diabetology, Genoa (Italy); Sambuceti, Gianmario [University of Genoa, Department of Internal Medicine, Nuclear Medicine, Genoa (Italy); Advanced Biotechnology Center, Genoa (Italy)

    2010-02-15

    The aim of this study was to validate a new method to measure regional myocardial perfusion reserve (MPR) with technetium-labelled tracers in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2). A total of 40 consecutive DM2 patients without history of coronary artery disease (CAD) and 7 control subjects were recruited. Dipyridamole myocardial blood flow index (MBF) was assessed by measuring first transit counts in the pulmonary artery and myocardial count rate from gated SPECT images using {sup 99m}Tc-labelled tracers. The corresponding MBF index was estimated 2 h later according to the same procedure. Regional myocardial perfusion reserve (MPR) was defined as the ratio between dipyridamole and baseline MBF using a 17-segment left ventricular (LV) model. Coronary flow reserve (CFR) was estimated by transthoracic contrast echo Doppler monitoring of flow velocity in the left anterior descending coronary artery (LAD) during the same session. Estimated MPR was higher in control subjects than in patients (3.36 {+-} 0.66 vs 1.91 {+-} 0.61, respectively, p < 0.01). In patients, LAD CFR and LAD MPR were 2.01 {+-} 0.78 vs 1.93 {+-} 0.63, respectively (p = ns). The agreement between the two techniques was documented by their close correlation (r = 0.92, p < 0.001) and confirmed by the Bland-Altman analysis. Reversible perfusion defects occurred in 13 patients (32%) who showed similar MPR values as the remaining 27 (2.10 {+-} 0.71 vs 1.83 {+-} 0.71, respectively, p = ns). Finally, MPR was closely correlated with age (r = -0.50, p < 0.01) and time elapsed from the diagnosis of DM2 (r = -0.51, p < 0.01). LV regional MPR can be accurately estimated with the broadly available single photon technology. Application of this method to DM2 patients documents the presence of a microvascular dysfunction homogeneously distributed throughout the LV walls and most frequently not associated with reversible perfusion defects. (orig.)

  4. Reserve growth during financial volatility in a technologically challenging world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klett, Timothy R.; Gautier, Donald L.

    2010-01-01

    Reserve growth (growth-to-known) is the addition of oil and gas quantities to reported proved or proved-plus-probable reserves in discovered fields. The amount of reserve growth fluctuates through time with prevailing economic and technological conditions. Most reserve additions are the result of investment in field operations and in development technology. These investments can be justified by higher prices of oil and gas, the desire to maintain cash flow, and by greater recovery efficiency in well established fields. The price/cost ratio affects decisions for field abandonment and (or) implementation of improved recovery methods. Although small- to medium-size fields might show higher percentages of reserve growth, a relatively few giant fields contribute most volumetric reserve growth, indicating that companies may prefer to invest in existing fields with low geologic and production risk and an established infrastructure in order to increase their price/cost relationship. Whereas many previous estimates of reserve growth were based on past trends of reported reserves, future reserve growth is expected to be greatly affected by financial volatility and fluctuating economic and technological conditions.

  5. Five-year resurvey for endangered species on Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 1, (Elk Hills), Kern County, California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otten, M.R.M.; O'Farrell, T.P.; Briden, L.E.

    1992-06-01

    A transect survey of Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 1 (NPR-1), Kern County, California, was conducted between July 3 and August 5, 1989 to determine the distribution and relative density of endangered species and other wildlife. Results were compared with other reported results, particularly the 1979 and 1984 surveys of NPR-1. A total of 589.8 miles of transects were walked through approximately 47,235 acres in all or parts of 81 sections. Of the 516 San Joaquin kit fox dens observed, 496 were typical subterranean dens and 20 were atypical dens in man-made structures. Estimated den density was 36.7 ± 4.1 per square mile; and relative den density was 10.5/1,000 acres for all of NPR-1. Characteristics of typical kit fox dens were comparable to characteristics reported for other studies, except mean number of entrances per den, which was lower. Observers counted a total of 300 dens previously marked with an identification sign, 191 of which contained at least one complete entrance and would have been observed without a sign. Relative densities of preferred kit fox prey, black-toiled jackrabbits (40.1/1,000 acres) and desert cottontails (14.1/1,000 acres), were lower than previously recorded. Five blunt-nosed leopard lizards were observed along the southwest and northeast perimeter of the Reserve. Most of the 59 giant kangaroo rat burrow systems were observed in the flat terrain along the northeast and south perimeters of the Reserve. San Joaquin antelope squirrels were observed in the central and western parts of NPR- 1. A total of 73 antelope squirrels were observed, and the relative density was 1.511,000 acres. A total.of 30 possible environmental hazards were observed during transect surveys. Most of these were oil and water leaks of small size and appeared to pose little risk to endangered species. Results of this survey indicate that NPR-1 is supporting less wildlife than it did during either the 1979 or 1984 surveys

  6. Definitions and guidelines for classification of oil and gas reserves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeSorcy, G.J.; Warne, G.A.; Ashton, B.R.; Campbell, G.R.; Collyer, D.R.; Drury, J.; Lang, R.V.; Robertson, W.D.; Robinson, J.G.; Tutt, D.W

    1993-05-01

    The unpredictability of estimating reserves of oil and gas has made it imperative to develop a universal set of definitions and guidelines for calculating and classifying reserves. A committee of representatives from the oil and gas industry, consulting firms, industry associations, regulatory agencies, government, and financial organizations in Canada has prepared definitions of oil and gas resources and reserves, as well as a recommended classification system for those reserves. The committee believes these definitions and guidelines are suitable for use with respect to all types of oil and gas and related substances, including offshore situations and oil sands. Both deterministic and probabilistic methods are presented, as well as guidelines for specific methods including the volumetric, material balance, decline curve analysis, and reservoir simulation methods. The guidelines also consider reserves from improved recovery projects and reserves of natural gas liquids and sulfur. A glossary of terms is appended. 14 figs.

  7. 10 years anniversary of the Poles'e state radioecological reserve (collected articles)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parfenov, V.I.

    1998-01-01

    The results of long time investigations of radionuclide contamination dynamics of soils, flora and fauna conducted by research workers of the reserve and National Academy of Sciences of Belarus on the territory of the reserve are offered. The different aspects of plant growth and animal behaviour in new ecological conditions are estimated

  8. Body composition estimation from selected slices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lacoste Jeanson, Alizé; Dupej, Ján; Villa, Chiara

    2017-01-01

    Background Estimating volumes and masses of total body components is important for the study and treatment monitoring of nutrition and nutrition-related disorders, cancer, joint replacement, energy-expenditure and exercise physiology. While several equations have been offered for estimating total...

  9. TOTAL WOOD VOLUME ESTIMATION OF EUCALYPTUS SPECIES BY IMAGES OF LANDSAT SATELLITE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elias Fernando Berra

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5902/198050987566Models relating spectral answers with biophysical parameters aim estimate variables, like wood volume, without the necessity of frequent field measurements. The objective was to develop models to estimate wood volume by Landsat 5 TM images, supported by regional forest inventory data. The image was geo-referenced and converted to spectral reflectance. After, the images-index NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and SR (Simple Ratio was generated. The reflectance values of the bands (TM1, TM2, TM3 e TM4 and of the indices (NDVI and SR was related with the wood volume. The biggest correlation with volume was with the NDVI and SR indices. The variables selection was made by Stepwise method, which returned three regression models as significant to explain the variation in volume. Finally, the best fitted model was selected (volume = -830,95 + 46,05 (SR + 107,47 (TM2, which was applied on the Landsat image where the pixels had started to represent the estimated volume in m³/ha on the Eucalyptus sp. production units. This model, significant at 95% confidence level, explains 68% of the wood volume variation.

  10. Operative needs in HIV+ populations: An estimation for sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherewick, Megan L; Cherewick, Steven D; Kushner, Adam L

    2017-05-01

    In 2015, it was estimated that approximately 36.7 million people were living with HIV globally and approximately 25.5 million of those people were living in sub-Saharan Africa. Limitations in the availability and access to adequate operative care require policy and planning to enhance operative capacity. Data estimating the total number of persons living with HIV by country, sex, and age group were obtained from the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) in 2015. Using minimum proposed surgical rates per 100,000 for 4, defined, sub-Saharan regions of Africa, country-specific and regional estimates were calculated. The total need and unmet need for operative procedures were estimated. A minimum of 1,539,138 operative procedures were needed in 2015 for the 25.5 million persons living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, there was an unmet need of 908,513 operative cases in sub-Saharan Africa with the greatest unmet need in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (427,820) and western sub-Saharan Africa (325,026). Approximately 55.6% of the total need for operative cases is adult women, 38.4% are adult men, and 6.0% are among children under the age of 15. A minimum of 1.5 million operative procedures annually are required to meet the needs of persons living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. The unmet need for operative care is greatest in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa and will require investments in personnel, infrastructure, facilities, supplies, and equipment. We highlight the need for global planning and investment in resources to meet targets of operative capacity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Economic considerations in the optimal size and number of reserve sites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneveld, R.A.

    2005-01-01

    The debate among ecologists on the optimal number of reserve sites under a fixed maximum total reserve area-the single large or several small (SLOSS) problem-has so far neglected the economic aspects of the problem. This paper argues that economic considerations can affect the optimal number and

  12. [Fuel Rod Consolidation Project]: The estimated total life cycle cost for the 30-year operation of prototypical consolidation demonstration equipment: Volume 4, Phase 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    The Total Life Cycle Costs have been developed for the construction, operation and decommissioning of a single line of hot-cell-enclosed production consolidation equipment operating on spent fuel at the rate of 750 MTU/year for 30 years. The cost estimate is for a single production line that is part of an overall facility at either a Monitored Retrievable Storage or a Repository facility. This overall facility would include other capabilities and possibly other consolidation lines. However, no costs were included in the cost estimate for other portions of the plant, except that staff costs include an overhead charge that reflects the overhead support services in an overall facility

  13. Impact of reserves information on formulating government policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekelund, M.W.; Anderson, B.; Khan, M.; Hudson, B.

    1997-01-01

    Policies regarding the development and production of Alberta's mineral resources such as oil, gas, and bitumen, are developed by the Alberta Ministry of Energy. The Ministry is divided into the Energy and Utilities Board (EUB) and the Department of Energy. The EUB deals with conservation, production measurement and reporting, environmental issues and some public utility issues. The Department of Energy deals with determining the appropriate fiscal and tenure regimes, market effectiveness issues and collection of Alberta's share of production. Reserve estimates are used for policy development and implementation purposes. The impact of some doubts regarding the reliability of reserves information and its impact on provincial policy recommendations were highlighted. Examples were drawn from bitumen reserves determination in the Athabasca Oil Sands area, enhanced oil recovery programs within the conventional oil sector, and royalty formulation within the conventional oil and gas sectors

  14. Primary Care Physician and Patient Perceptions of Reimbursement for Total Knee and Hip Replacement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiznia, Daniel H; Kim, Chang-Yeon; Wang, Yuexin; Swami, Nishwant; Pelker, Richard R

    2016-07-01

    The opinions of nonspecialists and patients will be important to determining reimbursements for specialists such as orthopedic surgeons. In addition, primary care physician (PCP) perceptions of reimbursements may affect utilization of orthopedic services. We distributed a web-based survey to PCPs, asking how much they believed orthopedic surgeons were reimbursed for total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). We also proctored a paper-based survey to postoperative patients, asking how much orthopedic surgeons should be reimbursed. There was a significant difference between perceived and actual reimbursement values for THA and TKA. Hospital-affiliated PCPs estimated higher reimbursements for both THA ($1657 vs $838, P < .0001 for Medicaid and $2246 vs $1515, P = .018 for Medicare) and TKA ($1260 vs $903, P = .052 for Medicaid and $2022 vs $1514, P = .049 for Medicare). Similarly, larger practices estimated higher reimbursements for both THA ($1861 vs $838, P < .0001 for Medicaid and $2635 vs $1515, P = .004 for Medicare) and TKA ($1583 vs $903, P = .005 for Medicaid and $2380 vs $1514, P = .011 for Medicare). Compared to PCPs, patients estimated that orthopedic surgeons should be paid 4 times higher for both THA ($9787 vs $2235, P < .0001) and TKA ($9088 vs $2134, P < .0001). PCPs believe that reimbursements for orthopedic procedures are higher than actual values. The effect that these perceptions will have on efforts at cost reform and utilization of orthopedic services requires further study. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Assessment of Body Reserves in Camels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Faye

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Herbivores manage their body reserves in a way that helps them respond to variations in the quality and accessibility of feed resources. Assessing these reserves provides farmers with a decision-making tool. Almost no data are available on these aspects of the camel. The present article summarizes several works on weight estimations that are used to assess the volume and weight of the hump (main location of fat reserves, relationships between hump measurements and carcass weight, and between hump weight and perirenal fat weight. Assessing the number and size of adipocytes is a means to test the relevance of these types of fat storage. There is in particular a positive relationship between the size and number of adipocytes in the hump and those in the perirenal fat. The age and sex effects were very pronounced for some of the criteria. A body condition score was established for this species based on the assessment of selected body parts. Results however showed that the hump was not a good bodycondition indicator because of variations in its weight as well as in the size of its adipocytes.

  16. Estimating continuous monthly baseflow time series and their possible applications in the context of the ecological reserve

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Smakhtin, VU

    2001-04-01

    Full Text Available (river and groundwater) are, therefore, dependent. In this example, the assumption is that IFRs (river reserve flows) determine the extent to which groundwater resources may be impacted in the absence of any surface water resource development (the impacts... (IFRs) are used instead of reference natural streamflow time series. The corresponding groundwater storage time series will then represent the groundwater reserve. These storages may provisionally be called ?IFR driven?. Two component reserve time series...

  17. An Employee Total Health Management–Based Survey of Iowa Employers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, James A.; Lind, David P.; Kelly, Kevin M.; Hall, Jennifer L.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To implement an Employee Total Health Management (ETHM) model-based questionnaire and provide estimates of model program elements among a statewide sample of Iowa employers. Methods Survey a stratified random sample of Iowa employers, characterize and estimate employer participation in ETHM program elements Results Iowa employers are implementing under 30% of all 12 components of ETHM, with the exception of occupational safety and health (46.6%) and worker compensation insurance coverage (89.2%), but intend modest expansion of all components in the coming year. Conclusions The Employee Total Health Management questionnaire-based survey provides estimates of progress Iowa employers are making toward implementing components of total worker health programs. PMID:24284757

  18. Markets slow to develop for Niger delta gas reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, D.

    1995-01-01

    Nigeria produces a very high quality, light, sweet crude oil but with a large percentage of associated gas derived from a high gas-to-oil ratio. Official proved gas reserves, both associated and nonassociated, are 120 tcf. Proved and probable reserves are estimated as high as 300 tcf. The internal market for gas has only begun to develop since the 1980s, and as a result approximately 77% of associated gas production is flared. Domestic gas consumption is currently approximately 700 MMcfd and is projected to have a medium term potential of 1.450 bcfd. The article discusses resource development, gas markets, gas flaring, gas use programs, the Bonny LNG scheme, the gas reserve base, LNG project status, competition, and energy opportunities

  19. The potential influence of regionalization strategies on delivery of care for elective total joint arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dy, Christopher J; Marx, Robert G; Ghomrawi, Hassan M K; Pan, Ting Jung; Westrich, Geoffrey H; Lyman, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Regionalization of total joint arthroplasty (TJA) to high volume hospitals (HVHs) may affect access to care and complication risk. Using administrative data, 2,560,314 patients who underwent primary total hip or knee arthroplasty from 1991 to 2006 were categorized by whether an HVH (>200 annual TJAs) was available locally. Associations among patient characteristics, hospital utilization, and in-hospital complications were estimated using regression modeling. The complication risk was higher (Odds Ratio 1.18 [95% CI: 1.16, 1.20]) if patients went to a local low volume hospital. Black and Medicaid patients were more likely to utilize the local low volume hospital than a local HVH. Utilizing a local HVH is associated with lower complication risks. However, patients from vulnerable groups were less likely to utilize these patterns. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Derivation of a formula for adjusting the total serum calcium in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GRACE

    2006-06-16

    Jun 16, 2006 ... The total calcium concentration, total protein, albumin and globulin were estimated for 302 patients that reported for serum calcium estimation at the clinical biochemistry laboratory of the Olabisi Onabanjo. University Teaching Hospital, Sagamu, Nigeria. Based on regression analysis, three formulae were.

  1. Classification of uranium reserves/resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-08-01

    Projections of future availability of uranium to meet present and future nuclear power requirements depend on the reliability of uranium resource estimates. Lack of harmony of the definition of the different classes of uranium reserves and resources between countries makes the compilation and analysis of such information difficult. The problem was accentuated in the early 1990s with the entry of uranium producing countries from the former Soviet Union, eastern Europe and China into the world uranium supply market. The need for an internationally acceptable reserve/resource classification system and terminology using market based criteria is therefore obvious. This publication was compiled from participant's contributions and findings of the Consultants Meetings on Harmonization of Uranium Resource Assessment Concepts held in Vienna from 22 to 25 June 1992, and two Consultants Meetings on the Development of a More Meaningful Classification of Uranium Resources held in Kiev, Ukraine on 24-26 April 1995 and 20-23 August 1996. This document includes 11 contributions, summary, list of participants of the Consultants Meetings. Each contribution has been indexed and provided with an abstract

  2. Laparoscopic total pancreatectomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xin; Li, Yongbin; Cai, Yunqiang; Liu, Xubao; Peng, Bing

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Rationale: Laparoscopic total pancreatectomy is a complicated surgical procedure and rarely been reported. This study was conducted to investigate the safety and feasibility of laparoscopic total pancreatectomy. Patients and Methods: Three patients underwent laparoscopic total pancreatectomy between May 2014 and August 2015. We reviewed their general demographic data, perioperative details, and short-term outcomes. General morbidity was assessed using Clavien–Dindo classification and delayed gastric emptying (DGE) was evaluated by International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery (ISGPS) definition. Diagnosis and Outcomes: The indications for laparoscopic total pancreatectomy were intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) (n = 2) and pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor (PNET) (n = 1). All patients underwent laparoscopic pylorus and spleen-preserving total pancreatectomy, the mean operative time was 490 minutes (range 450–540 minutes), the mean estimated blood loss was 266 mL (range 100–400 minutes); 2 patients suffered from postoperative complication. All the patients recovered uneventfully with conservative treatment and discharged with a mean hospital stay 18 days (range 8–24 days). The short-term (from 108 to 600 days) follow up demonstrated 3 patients had normal and consistent glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) level with acceptable quality of life. Lessons: Laparoscopic total pancreatectomy is feasible and safe in selected patients and pylorus and spleen preserving technique should be considered. Further prospective randomized studies are needed to obtain a comprehensive understanding the role of laparoscopic technique in total pancreatectomy. PMID:28099344

  3. Determination of dietary intake of total arsenic, inorganic arsenic and total mercury in the Chilean school meal program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastías, J M; Bermúdez, M; Carrasco, J; Espinoza, O; Muñoz, M; Galotto, M J; Muñoz, O

    2010-10-01

    The dietary intake of total arsenic (tAs), inorganic arsenic (iAs) and total mercury (tHg) in lunch and breakfast servings provided by the Chilean School Meal Program (SMP) was estimated, using the duplicate-portion variant of the total diet study. Lunch and breakfast samples were collected from 65 schools throughout the country in 2006. The population sample was a group of girls and boys between 6 and 18 years old. The tAs concentration was measured via hydride-generation atomic absorption spectrometry. The total mercury concentration was measured via cold-vapor atomic absorption spectroscopy. The estimated iAs intake was 12.5% (5.4 μg/day) of the Provisional tolerable daily intake (PTDI) as proposed by the FAO/WHO, and the tHg intake was 13.2% (1.9 μg/day) of the PTDI as proposed by the FAO/WHO. It was therefore concluded that tAs, iAs and tHg intake from food provided by the SMP do not pose risks to student health.

  4. Assessing Differences in the Availability of Opioid Addiction Therapy Options: Rural Versus Urban and American Indian Reservation Versus Non-Reservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirchak, Katherine A.; Murphy, Sean M.

    2017-01-01

    Background Opioid misuse is a large public health problem in the United States. Residents of rural areas and American Indian (AI) reservation/trust lands represent traditionally underserved populations with regard to substance-use-disorder therapy. Purpose Assess differences in the number of opioid agonist therapy (OAT) facilities and physicians with Drug Addiction Treatment Act (DATA) waivers for rural versus urban, and AI reservation/trust land versus non-AI reservation/trust land areas in Washington State. Methods The unit of analysis was the zip code. The dependent variables were the number of OAT facilities and DATA-waivered physicians in a region per 10,000 residents aged 18–64 in a zip code. A region was defined as a zip code and its contiguous zip codes. The independent variables were binary measures of whether a zip code was classified as rural versus urban, or AI reservation/trust land versus non-AI reservation/trust land. Zero-inflated negative binomial regressions with robust standard errors were estimated. Results The number of OAT clinics in a region per 10,000 zip-code residents was significantly lower in rural versus urban areas (P = .002). This did not differ significantly between AI reservation/trust land and non-AI reservation/trust land areas (P = .79). DATA-waivered physicians in a region per 10,000 zip-code residents was not significantly different between rural and urban (P = .08), or AI reservation/trust land versus non-AI reservation/trust land areas (P = .21). Conclusions It appears that the potential for Washington State residents of rural and AI reservation areas to receive OAT is similar to that of residents outside of those areas; however, difficulties in accessing therapy may remain, highlighting the importance of expanding health care insurance and providing support for DATA-waivered physicians. PMID:26987797

  5. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  6. Face Value: Towards Robust Estimates of Snow Leopard Densities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justine S Alexander

    Full Text Available When densities of large carnivores fall below certain thresholds, dramatic ecological effects can follow, leading to oversimplified ecosystems. Understanding the population status of such species remains a major challenge as they occur in low densities and their ranges are wide. This paper describes the use of non-invasive data collection techniques combined with recent spatial capture-recapture methods to estimate the density of snow leopards Panthera uncia. It also investigates the influence of environmental and human activity indicators on their spatial distribution. A total of 60 camera traps were systematically set up during a three-month period over a 480 km2 study area in Qilianshan National Nature Reserve, Gansu Province, China. We recorded 76 separate snow leopard captures over 2,906 trap-days, representing an average capture success of 2.62 captures/100 trap-days. We identified a total number of 20 unique individuals from photographs and estimated snow leopard density at 3.31 (SE = 1.01 individuals per 100 km2. Results of our simulation exercise indicate that our estimates from the Spatial Capture Recapture models were not optimal to respect to bias and precision (RMSEs for density parameters less or equal to 0.87. Our results underline the critical challenge in achieving sufficient sample sizes of snow leopard captures and recaptures. Possible performance improvements are discussed, principally by optimising effective camera capture and photographic data quality.

  7. An enhanced cerium(IV)-rhodamine 6G chemiluminescence system using guest-host interactions in a lab-on-a-chip platform for estimating the total phenolic content in food samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Haddabi, Buthaina; Al Lawati, Haider A J; Suliman, FakhrEldin O

    2016-04-01

    Two chemiluminescence-microfluidic (CL-MF) systems, e.g., Ce(IV)-rhodamine B (RB) and Ce(IV)-rhodamine 6G (R6G), for the determination of the total phenolic content in teas and some sweeteners were evaluated. The results indicated that the Ce(IV)-R6G system was more sensitive in comparison to the Ce(IV)-RB CL system. Therefore, a simple (CL-MF) method based on the CL of Ce(IV)-R6G was developed, and the sensitivity, selectivity and stability of this system were evaluated. Selected phenolic compounds (PCs), such as quercetin (QRC), catechin (CAT), rutin (RUT), gallic acid (GA), caffeic acid (CA) and syringic acid (SA), produced analytically useful chemiluminescence signals with low detection limits ranging from 0.35 nmol L(-1) for QRC to 11.31 nmol L(-1) for SA. The mixing sequence and the chip design were crucial, as the sensitivity and reproducibility could be substantially affected by these two factors. In addition, the anionic surfactant (i.e., sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS)) can significantly enhance the CL signal intensity by as much as 300% for the QRC solution. Spectroscopic studies indicated that the enhancement was due to a strong guest-host interaction between the cationic R6G molecules and the anionic amphiphilic environment. Other parameters that could affect the CL intensities of the PCs were carefully optimized. Finally, the method was successfully applied to tea and sweetener samples. Six different tea samples exhibited total phenolic/antioxidant levels from 7.32 to 13.5 g per 100g of sample with respect to GA. Four different sweetener samples were also analyzed and exhibited total phenolic/antioxidant levels from 500.9 to 3422.9 mg kg(-1) with respect to GA. The method was selective, rapid and sensitive when used to estimate the total phenolic/antioxidant level, and the results were in good agreement with those reported for honey and tea samples. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Total 2003 Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This document presents the 2003 results of Total Group: consolidated account, special items, number of shares, market environment, 4. quarter 2003 results, full year 2003 results, upstream (key figures, proved reserves), downstream key figures, chemicals key figures, parent company accounts and proposed dividends, 2004 sensitivities, summary and outlook, operating information by segment for the 4. quarter and full year 2003: upstream (combined liquids and gas production by region, liquids production by region, gas production by region), downstream (refinery throughput by region, refined product sales by region, chemicals), impact of allocating contribution of Cepsa to net operating income by business segment: equity in income (loss) and affiliates and other items, Total financial statements: consolidated statement of income, consolidated balance sheet (assets, liabilities and shareholder's equity), consolidated statements of cash flows, business segments information. (J.S.)

  9. The current total economic burden of diabetes mellitus in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, M L; Huisman, E L; Schoonen, M; Wolffenbuttel, B H R

    2017-09-01

    Insight into the total economic burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) is essential for decision makers and payers. Currently available estimates for the Netherlands only include part of the total burden or are no longer up-to-date. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the current total economic burden of DM and its complications in the Netherlands, by including all the relevant cost components. The study combined a systematic literature review to identify all relevant published information and a targeted review to identify relevant information in the grey literature. The identified evidence was then combined to estimate the current total economic burden. In 2016, there were an estimated 1.1 million DM patients in the Netherlands, of whom approximately 10% had type 1 and 90% had type 2 DM. The estimated current total economic burden of DM was € 6.8 billion in 2016. Healthcare costs (excluding costs of complications) were € 1.6 billion, direct costs of complications were € 1.3 billion and indirect costs due to productivity losses, welfare payments and complications were € 4.0 billion. DM and its complications pose a substantial economic burden to the Netherlands, which is expected to rise due to changing demographics and lifestyle. Indirect costs, such as welfare payments, accounted for a large portion of the current total economic burden of DM, while these cost components are often not included in cost estimations. Publicly available data for key cost drivers such as complications were scarce.

  10. Benthos microalgae of the Lebyazhy'i Ostrova Reserve in the Black Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darya S. Balycheva

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents for the first time a list of the benthic microalgae of the Lebyazhy'i Ostrova Reserve, including the Karkinitsky Gulf and Sary-Bulatsky liman. During 2015 and 2016, 78 taxa were found: Bacillariophyta – 69, Cyanoprokaryota – 6, Haptophyta – 3. In the Karkinitsky Gulf 45 taxa were found, in the Sary-Bulatsky liman – 56 taxa. The Czekanovski-Sorensen similarity coefficient between these locality is 46%. The basis of the flora is diatoms: Cocconeis scutellum, Entomoneis alata, Halamphora coffeiformis, Nitzschia scalpelliformis, Pleurosigma angulatum, Pl. elongatum, Psammodictyon panduriforme, including Coronia daemeliana, Surirella striatula, Tryblionella circumsuta, which are rare for the microphytobenthos of the Crimean coast of the Black Sea. According to different classifications, dominant algae are benthic (86%, marine (49% and cosmopolite (30% species. Two potentially toxic species of diatoms, H. coffeiformis and Pseudo-nitzschia calliantha, were found once, 20 species of saprobionts – indicators of water quality were found. A comparison of the floras in the protected regions of the Black Sea between the Lebyazhy'i Ostrova Reserve and the Kazachya Bay Sanctuary showed 38 common species of benthic diatoms, in the Karadag Nature Reserve – 43 and in the Kazantip Nature Reserve (Azov Sea – 21. The total microalgae abundance of the epilithon of the stones of the Sary-Bulatsky liman varied from 81,000 to 331,000 cellscm-2, biomass – 0.012–0.018 mgcm-2, number of species – 11–13. A significant contribution was made by cyanobacteria, their average abundance reached 256,000 cellscm-2 and biomass – 0.007 mgcm-2. The abundance of diatoms varied from 48,000 to 75,000 cellscm-2, the biomass reached 0.011 mgcm-2 with the dominance of Seminavis ventricosa. The obtained data have shown the necessity of regular monitoring of the microphytobenthos of the Lebyazhy'i Ostrova Reserve in order to identify the qualitative

  11. An analysis of illegal mining on the Offin shelterbelt forest reserve, Ghana: Implications on community livelihood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Boadi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Mining in tropical countries contributes significantly to the global minerals supplies but unregulated mining activities in reserved forests is associated with destruction, loss of habitats and loss of biodiversity. This study determined the area of the Offin shelterbelt forest reserve, Ghana, degraded through illegal mining (galamsey and the impacts on the livelihoods of fringe communities. Thirty-two (32 coordinates were recorded around the peripheries of disturbed site in the reserve using hand-held Global Positioning System and were then imported into a geodatabase in ArcGIS which was used to estimate the area degraded. Data was obtained from 60 purposively sampled respondents from two communities fringing the reserve and 10 key informant interviews. Increased income (13%, employment opportunities (6.7% and increased market activities (2% were some benefits of the illegal mining activities identified by the respondents. Eight respondents associated their employment with of the advent of illegal mining activities out which 6 (70% were engaged directly in mining activities, while 2 (30% were into trading. The miners earned cash income range of US $ 2.9–22.9 daily. Within 5 years, illegal mining had degraded 2.5 km2 (4.4% of the total area of the reserve and the destruction of cocoa farms and water sources (31. Farming among respondents reduced from 90% to 76% after illegal mining. The relatively high cost (US$ 6424.1 involved in flushing out and the subsequent return of such miners poses a threat to sustainable forest management and requires a more holistic approach in tackling such a problem.

  12. [Remote sensing estimation of urban forest carbon stocks based on QuickBird images].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Li-Hua; Zhang, Jie-Cun; Huang, Bo; Wang, Huan-Huan; Yue, Wen-Ze

    2014-10-01

    Urban forest is one of the positive factors that increase urban carbon sequestration, which makes great contribution to the global carbon cycle. Based on the high spatial resolution imagery of QuickBird in the study area within the ring road in Yiwu, Zhejiang, the forests in the area were divided into four types, i. e., park-forest, shelter-forest, company-forest and others. With the carbon stock from sample plot as dependent variable, at the significance level of 0.01, the stepwise linear regression method was used to select independent variables from 50 factors such as band grayscale values, vegetation index, texture information and so on. Finally, the remote sensing based forest carbon stock estimation models for the four types of forest were established. The estimation accuracies for all the models were around 70%, with the total carbon reserve of each forest type in the area being estimated as 3623. 80, 5245.78, 5284.84, 5343.65 t, respectively. From the carbon density map, it was found that the carbon reserves were mainly in the range of 25-35 t · hm(-2). In the future, urban forest planners could further improve the ability of forest carbon sequestration through afforestation and interplanting of trees and low shrubs.

  13. Estimated incident cost savings in shipping due to inspections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knapp, Sabine; Bijwaard, Govert; Heij, Christiaan

    2011-07-01

    The effectiveness of safety inspections of ships has been analysed from various angles, but until now, relatively little attention has been given to translate risk reduction into incident cost savings. This paper provides a monetary quantification of the cost savings that can be attributed to port state control inspections and industry vetting inspections. The dataset consists of more than half a million ship arrivals between 2002 and 2007 and contains inspections of port state authorities in the USA and Australia and of three industry vetting regimes. The effect of inspections in reducing the risk of total loss accidents is estimated by means of duration models, in terms of the gained probability of survival. The monetary benefit of port state control inspections is estimated to range, on average, from about 70 to 190 thousand dollars, with median values ranging from about 20 to 45 thousand dollars. Industry inspections have even higher benefits, especially for tankers. The savings are in general higher for older and larger vessels, and also for vessels with undefined flag and unknown classification society. As inspection costs are relatively low in comparison to potential cost savings, the results underline the importance of determining ships with relatively high risk of total loss. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Serum total bilirubin levels and coronary heart disease--Causal association or epiphenomenon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunutsor, Setor K

    2015-12-01

    Observational epidemiological evidence supports a linear inverse and independent association between serum total bilirubin levels and coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, but whether this association is causal remains to be ascertained. A Mendelian randomization approach was employed to test whether serum total bilirubin is causally linked to CHD. The genetic variant rs6742078--well known to specifically modify levels of serum total bilirubin and accounting for up to 20% of the variance in circulating serum total bilirubin levels--was used as an instrumental variable. In pooled analysis of estimates reported from published genome-wide association studies, every copy of the T allele of rs6742078 was associated with 0.42 standard deviation (SD) higher levels of serum total bilirubin (95% confidence interval, 0.40 to 0.43). Based on combined data from the Coronary Artery Disease Genome wide Replication and Meta-analyses and the Coronary Artery Disease (C4D) Genetics Consortium involving a total of 36,763 CHD cases and 76,997 controls, the odds ratio for CHD per copy of the T allele was 1.01 (95% confidence interval, 0.99 to 1.04). The odds ratio of CHD for a 1 SD genetically elevated serum total bilirubin level was 1.03 (95% confidence interval, 0.98 to 1.09). The current findings casts doubt on a strong causal association of serum total bilirubin levels with CHD. The inverse associations demonstrated in observational studies may be driven by biases such as unmeasured confounding and/or reverse causation. However, further research in large-scale consortia is needed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Consequences of varied soil hydraulic and meteorological complexity on unsaturated zone time lag estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vero, S E; Ibrahim, T G; Creamer, R E; Grant, J; Healy, M G; Henry, T; Kramers, G; Richards, K G; Fenton, O

    2014-12-01

    The true efficacy of a programme of agricultural mitigation measures within a catchment to improve water quality can be determined only after a certain hydrologic time lag period (subsequent to implementation) has elapsed. As the biophysical response to policy is not synchronous, accurate estimates of total time lag (unsaturated and saturated) become critical to manage the expectations of policy makers. The estimation of the vertical unsaturated zone component of time lag is vital as it indicates early trends (initial breakthrough), bulk (centre of mass) and total (Exit) travel times. Typically, estimation of time lag through the unsaturated zone is poor, due to the lack of site specific soil physical data, or by assuming saturated conditions. Numerical models (e.g. Hydrus 1D) enable estimates of time lag with varied levels of input data. The current study examines the consequences of varied soil hydraulic and meteorological complexity on unsaturated zone time lag estimates using simulated and actual soil profiles. Results indicated that: greater temporal resolution (from daily to hourly) of meteorological data was more critical as the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil decreased; high clay content soils failed to converge reflecting prevalence of lateral component as a contaminant pathway; elucidation of soil hydraulic properties was influenced by the complexity of soil physical data employed (textural menu, ROSETTA, full and partial soil water characteristic curves), which consequently affected time lag ranges; as the importance of the unsaturated zone increases with respect to total travel times the requirements for high complexity/resolution input data become greater. The methodology presented herein demonstrates that decisions made regarding input data and landscape position will have consequences for the estimated range of vertical travel times. Insufficiencies or inaccuracies regarding such input data can therefore mislead policy makers regarding

  16. ASSETS ADMITTED TO COVER GROSS TECHNICAL RESERVES CASE STUDY: INSURANCE – REINSURANCE COMPANY ASTRA SA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IRINELA – CONSTANTINA BADEA

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to analyze the asset structure and the coverage of gross technical reserves of the Insurance – Reinsurance Company Astra SA, for the period 2003 – 2014. Insurance companies are required to constitute technical reserves, in order to cope with the payment obligations to policyholders. These reserves may only be covered on account of certain assets, admitted by law. In Romania, Orders No. 8 and 9/2011, issued by the Insurance Supervisory Commission, contain Rules regarding the assets admitted to cover gross technical reserves, the dispersion of assets admitted to cover gross technical reserves and the liquidity coefficient. Order No. 9/2011, relating to general insurance, has been amended by Rule No. 22/2014. In this paper, we have analyzed the main elements of Astra’s assets, their share in total assets and we have calculated the coverage of gross technical reserves by total assets and liquid assets. In 2013 and 2014, the value of total assets was below the value of gross tehnical reserves, which demonstrated Astra’s financial instability, through negative capital and the inability to meet the obligations to policyholders. Failure to comply with the prudential indicators has been one of the main causes of Astra`s bankruptcy.

  17. A correction factor for estimating statewide agricultural injuries from ambulance reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Erika E; Earle-Richardson, Giulia; Krupa, Nicole; Jenkins, Paul

    2011-10-01

    Agriculture ranks as one of the most hazardous industries in the nation. Agricultural injury surveillance is critical to identifying and reducing major injury hazards. Currently, there is no comprehensive system of identifying and characterizing fatal and serious non-fatal agricultural injuries. Researchers sought to calculate a multiplier for estimating the number of agricultural injury cases based on the number of times the farm box indicator was checked on the ambulance report. Farm injuries from 2007 that used ambulance transport were ascertained for 10 New York counties using two methods: (1) ambulance reports including hand-entered free text; and (2) community surveillance. The resulting multiplier that was developed from contrasting these two methods was then applied to the statewide Emergency Medical Services database to estimate the total number of agricultural injuries for New York state. There were 25,735 unique ambulance runs due to injuries in the 10 counties in 2007. Among these, the farm box was checked a total of 90 times. Of these 90, 63 (70%) were determined to be agricultural. Among injury runs where the farm box was not checked, an additional 59 cases were identified from the free text. Among these 122 cases (63 + 59), four were duplicates. Twenty-four additional unique cases were identified from the community surveillance for a total of 142. This yielded a multiplier of 142/90 = 1.578 for estimating all agricultural injuries from the farm box indicator. Sensitivity and specificity of the ambulance report method were 53.4% and 99.9%, respectively. This method provides a cost-effective way to estimate the total number of agricultural injuries for the state. However, it would not eliminate the more labor intensive methods that are required to identify of the actual individual case records. Incorporating an independent source of case ascertainment (community surveillance) increased the multiplier by 17%. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights

  18. OPTIMUM VOLUME OF BANK RESERVE: FORECASTING OF OVERDUE CREDIT INDEBTEDNESS USING COPULA MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazakova K. A.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article propose to consider the possibility of RLUF-copulas application for the creation of joint distributions of overdue credit indebtedness ranks with macroeconomic indicators for the purpose of indebtedness forecasting and also for the definition of optimum volumes of reserve requirements for the corresponding losses. In this research the comparative analysis of multivariate distributions of RLUF-copula estimation with such classical copulas, as FGM-copula, Frank's copula and Gauss's copula is made. In the article the method of maximum likelihood is used for receiving estimates of model parameters. In case of RLUF-copula Bayesian estimates of parameters are received using the Metropolis algorithm with random volatility. Forecasting of bank reserve volumes for all received models is executed in the form of random sample generation by the means of the algorithm of acceptance-deviation for the creation of the corresponding sample of joint distribution using the copula density function. As the result of playing of hundred possible scenarios of indebtedness volumes is obtained the 95 % confidence level for the possible volume of credit indebtedness which can fully act as the optimum volume of reserve requirements for the corresponding credit losses.

  19. Estimation of uncertainty of a reference material for proficiency testing for the determination of total mercury in fish in natura; Estimativa da incerteza de um material de referencia para ensaios de proficiencia para a determinacao de mercurio total em pescado in natura

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santana, L.V.; Sarkis, J.E.S.; Ulrich, J.C.; Hortellani, M.A., E-mail: santana-luciana@ig.com.br, E-mail: jesarkis@ipen.br, E-mail: jculrich@ipen.br, E-mail: mahortel@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    This study presents the uncertainty estimate for characterization, study of homogeneity and stability study obtained in the preparation of a reference material for the determination of total mercury in fish fresh muscle tissue for proficiency testing. The test results for stability were obtained by linear regression and to homogeneity study was obtained by ANOVA-one way showed that the material is homogeneous and stable. The value of total mercury concentration with expanded uncertainty for the material was 0,294 ± 0,089 μg g{sup -}. (author)

  20. Animal board invited review: Dairy cow lameness expenditures, losses and total cost.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolecheck, K; Bewley, J

    2018-03-20

    Lameness is one of the most costly dairy cow diseases, yet adoption of lameness prevention strategies remains low. Low lameness prevention adoption might be attributable to a lack of understanding regarding total lameness costs. In this review, we evaluated the contribution of different expenditures and losses to total lameness costs. Evaluated expenditures included labor for treatment, therapeutic supplies, lameness detection and lameness control and prevention. Evaluated losses included non-saleable milk, reduced milk production, reduced reproductive performance, increased animal death, increased animal culling, disease interrelationships, lameness recurrence and reduced animal welfare. The previous literature on total lameness cost estimates was also summarized. The reviewed studies indicated that previous estimates of total lameness costs are variable and inconsistent in the expenditures and losses they include. Many of the identified expenditure and loss categories require further research to accurately include in total lameness cost estimates. Future research should focus on identifying costs associated with specific lameness conditions, differing lameness severity levels, and differing stages of lactation at onset of lameness to provide better total lameness cost estimates that can be useful for decision making at both the herd and individual cow level.

  1. Classification system of the mineral reserves and resources of Ukraine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lovinyukov, V.I.

    1998-01-01

    This paper describes the system used to classify the resources and reserves of all minerals and fuels in Ukraine. The classification system is part of an official procedure determined by the Ukrainian State Commission on Reserves. Following preparation of resource estimates the results are registered with the State, which maintains an official inventory of all mineral resources. This paper compares the Ukrainian system to, and finds it compatible with the United Nations International Framework of resource classification. The UN system is based on economics of production and mineability. (author)

  2. Classification system of the mineral reserves and resources of Ukraine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lovyunikov, V.I.

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes the system used to classify the resources and reserves of all minerals and fuels in Ukraine. The classification system is part of an official procedures determined by the Ukrainian State Commission on Reserves. Following preparation of resource estimates the results are registered with the State, which maintains an official inventory of all mineral resources. This paper compares the Ukrainian system to, and finds it compatible with the United Nations International Framework of resources classification. The UN system is based on economics of production and mineability. (author). 1 tab

  3. Demand for Reserves and the Central Bank's Management of Interest Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Martin Schlegel; Sébastien Kraenzlin

    2009-01-01

    The implementation of monetary policy is prevalently done by interest rate targeting with a short term market rate serving as operational target. The instruments for achieving the operational target are the provision of reserves and the interest rate charged in these transactions. This paper presents a model for the estimation of the demand curve for reserves, derived from the central bank's fixed rate tender auction and the interbank money market. Using data from Switzerland, the slope of th...

  4. The Foundational Public Health Services as a Framework for Estimating Spending.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resnick, Beth A; Fisher, Jessica S; Colrick, Ian P; Leider, Jonathon P

    2017-11-01

    In support of the nation's effort to address rising healthcare costs and improve healthcare outcomes, the National Academy of Medicine called for a minimum package of public health services available in every community to protect and improve population health and identification of the resources needed to make these services universally available. In response, the Foundational Public Health Services (FPHS) framework was developed to outline a basic set of public health programs and capabilities. Although the FPHS is considered a useful public health practice tool, cost estimation for providing the FPHS is in its infancy. This is in part due to inability to estimate total costs of individual public health services and programs. This research begins to address this knowledge gap. FPHS formed the basis of a coding framework used in 2013-2016 to code 1.9 million U.S. Census Bureau State Finance non-hospital expenditure records from 49 states from 2000 to 2013. Results were used to develop estimates of state governmental FPHS spending. FPHS spending constituted 36% of total state governmental non-hospital health spending from 2008 to 2013. The largest proportion of FPHS spending was on maternal/child health and the smallest proportion of spending was on access and linkage to clinical care. This research is an important step in response to the National Academy of Medicine's call for estimating the resources needed to provide the FPHS. Such estimates allow for spending comparisons across states and may inform future research to assess and evaluate FPHS spending impacts. Copyright © 2017 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Binomial distribution of Poisson statistics and tracks overlapping probability to estimate total tracks count with low uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khayat, Omid; Afarideh, Hossein; Mohammadnia, Meisam

    2015-01-01

    In the solid state nuclear track detectors of chemically etched type, nuclear tracks with center-to-center neighborhood of distance shorter than two times the radius of tracks will emerge as overlapping tracks. Track overlapping in this type of detectors causes tracks count losses and it becomes rather severe in high track densities. Therefore, tracks counting in this condition should include a correction factor for count losses of different tracks overlapping orders since a number of overlapping tracks may be counted as one track. Another aspect of the problem is the cases where imaging the whole area of the detector and counting all tracks are not possible. In these conditions a statistical generalization method is desired to be applicable in counting a segmented area of the detector and the results can be generalized to the whole surface of the detector. Also there is a challenge in counting the tracks in densely overlapped tracks because not sufficient geometrical or contextual information are available. It this paper we present a statistical counting method which gives the user a relation between the tracks overlapping probabilities on a segmented area of the detector surface and the total number of tracks. To apply the proposed method one can estimate the total number of tracks on a solid state detector of arbitrary shape and dimensions by approximating the tracks averaged area, whole detector surface area and some orders of tracks overlapping probabilities. It will be shown that this method is applicable in high and ultra high density tracks images and the count loss error can be enervated using a statistical generalization approach. - Highlights: • A correction factor for count losses of different tracks overlapping orders. • For the cases imaging the whole area of the detector is not possible. • Presenting a statistical generalization method for segmented areas. • Giving a relation between the tracks overlapping probabilities and the total tracks

  6. A novel ultra-performance liquid chromatography hyphenated with quadrupole time of flight mass spectrometry method for rapid estimation of total toxic retronecine-type of pyrrolizidine alkaloids in herbs without requiring corresponding standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Lin; Ruan, Jian-Qing; Li, Na; Fu, Peter P; Ye, Yang; Lin, Ge

    2016-03-01

    Nearly 50% of naturally-occurring pyrrolizidine alkaloids (PAs) are hepatotoxic, and the majority of hepatotoxic PAs are retronecine-type PAs (RET-PAs). However, quantitative measurement of PAs in herbs/foodstuffs is often difficult because most of reference PAs are unavailable. In this study, a rapid, selective, and sensitive UHPLC-QTOF-MS method was developed for the estimation of RET-PAs in herbs without requiring corresponding standards. This method is based on our previously established characteristic and diagnostic mass fragmentation patterns and the use of retrorsine for calibration. The use of a single RET-PA (i.e. retrorsine) for construction of calibration was based on high similarities with no significant differences demonstrated by the calibration curves constructed by peak areas of extract ion chromatograms of fragment ion at m/z 120.0813 or 138.0919 versus concentrations of five representative RET-PAs. The developed method was successfully applied to measure a total content of toxic RET-PAs of diversified structures in fifteen potential PA-containing herbs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Coal: resources, reserves and production - Panorama 2008; Charbon: ressources, reserves et production - Panorama 2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    For the French, whose last coal mine closed in 2004, the 'comeback' of coal as a political issue may seem a bit surprising. Even if coal is still used in domestic industry and to produce electricity, it is many years since it was used as the primary energy source for electricity production. This situation, specific to France and certain European countries, is not at all typical of the world situation: in the face of surging energy demand, coal - whose reserves have been estimated by the World Energy Council to cover 145 years of consumption at the current rate - seems to be an energy of the future and an alternative to oil, natural gas and nuclear power for the production of electricity.

  8. Binational Arsenic Exposure Survey: Methodology and Estimated Arsenic Intake from Drinking Water and Urinary Arsenic Concentrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin B. Harris

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Binational Arsenic Exposure Survey (BAsES was designed to evaluate probable arsenic exposures in selected areas of southern Arizona and northern Mexico, two regions with known elevated levels of arsenic in groundwater reserves. This paper describes the methodology of BAsES and the relationship between estimated arsenic intake from beverages and arsenic output in urine. Households from eight communities were selected for their varying groundwater arsenic concentrations in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. Adults responded to questionnaires and provided dietary information. A first morning urine void and water from all household drinking sources were collected. Associations between urinary arsenic concentration (total, organic, inorganic and estimated level of arsenic consumed from water and other beverages were evaluated through crude associations and by random effects models. Median estimated total arsenic intake from beverages among participants from Arizona communities ranged from 1.7 to 14.1 µg/day compared to 0.6 to 3.4 µg/day among those from Mexico communities. In contrast, median urinary inorganic arsenic concentrations were greatest among participants from Hermosillo, Mexico (6.2 µg/L whereas a high of 2.0 µg/L was found among participants from Ajo, Arizona. Estimated arsenic intake from drinking water was associated with urinary total arsenic concentration (p < 0.001, urinary inorganic arsenic concentration (p < 0.001, and urinary sum of species (p < 0.001. Urinary arsenic concentrations increased between 7% and 12% for each one percent increase in arsenic consumed from drinking water. Variability in arsenic intake from beverages and urinary arsenic output yielded counter intuitive results. Estimated intake of arsenic from all beverages was greatest among Arizonans yet participants in Mexico had higher urinary total and inorganic arsenic concentrations. Other contributors to urinary arsenic concentrations should be evaluated.

  9. 2000 SURVEY OF RESERVE COMPONENT PERSONNEL: ADMINISTRATION, DATASETS, AND CODEBOOK

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Simmons, Robert

    2002-01-01

    ..., satisfaction with aspects of Guard and Reserve life, and other quality of life issues. Together with the 1999 Active Duty Surveys of Members and Spouses, the RCS provide a comprehensive picture of the Total Force...

  10. Planning outstanding reserves in general insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raeva, E.; Pavlov, V.

    2017-10-01

    Each insurance company have to ensure its solvency through presentation of accounts for its own reserves in the start of the year. Usually the task of the actuary is to estimate the state of the company on an annual basis and the expectation of the status of the company for a future period. One of the major problem when calculating the liabilities of the incurred claims, is related to the delay of payments. Object of consideration in the present note are the outstanding claim reserves, which are set aside to cover claims, occurred before the date of the annual account, but still not paid, and related with them expenses. There may be different reasons for the delay of claims settlement. For example, continuation the process of the liquidation of the damage waiting for necessary documents or the presence of controversial cases whose permission takes time, etc. Thus the claims, which determine the outstanding reserves could be divided in the following types: claims, which are reported, but not settled (RBNS); claims, which are incurred but not reported (IBNR); claims, whose case is finished, but it is possible to be reopened. When calculating the reserves for IBNR claims, most widely used is the Chain-ladder method and its modification presented by the Bornhuetter - Ferguson method. For modeling the outstanding claims, the available data should be presented in so called run-off triangle, which underlies in the basis of such methods. The present work provides a review of the algorithm for calculating insurance outstanding claim reserves according to the Chain-ladder method. Using available data for claims related to liability of drivers, registered in Bulgaria an example is constructed to illustrate the methodology of the Chain-Ladder method. Back-testing approach is used for validating the results.

  11. Wildlife reserves, populations and hunting outcome with smart wildlife

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Frank; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    2014-01-01

    reach ambiguous results when comparing a situation with and without stress effects. A pure stress effect implies that the population level in a wildlife reserve increase and the population level in the hunting area decrease in optimum. However, this change in optimal population levels increase migration...... from the wildlife reserve to the hunting area in the social optimum. The total effect is, therefore, ambiguous. For the private optimum open-access is assumed and exactly the same results arise as in the social optimum when comparing a situation with and without stress effects....

  12. Apparatus and method for quantitatively evaluating total fissile and total fertile nuclide content in samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caldwell, J.T.; Cates, M.R.; Franks, L.A.; Kunz, W.E.

    1985-01-01

    Simultaneous photon and neutron interrogation of samples for the quantitative determination of total fissile nuclide and total fertile nuclide material present is made possible by the use of an electron accelerator. Prompt and delayed neutrons produced from resulting induced fissions are counted using a single detection system and allow the resolution of the contributions from each interrogating flux leading in turn to the quantitative determination sought. Detection limits for 239 Pu are estimated to be about 3 mg using prompt fission neutrons and about 6 mg using delayed delayed neutrons

  13. The effects of black garlic ethanol extract on the spatial memory and estimated total number of pyramidal cells of the hippocampus of monosodium glutamate-exposed adolescent male Wistar rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermawati, Ery; Sari, Dwi Cahyani Ratna; Partadiredja, Ginus

    2015-09-01

    Monosodium glutamate (MSG) is believed to exert deleterious effects on various organs, including the hippocampus, likely via the oxidative stress pathway. Garlic (Alium sativum L.), which is considered to possess potent antioxidant activity, has been used as traditional remedy for various ailments since ancient times. We have investigated the effects of black garlic, a fermented form of garlic, on spatial memory and estimated the total number of pyramidal cells of the hippocampus in adolescent male Wistar rats treated with MSG. Twenty-five rats were divided into five groups: C- group, which received normal saline; C+ group, which was exposed to 2 mg/g body weight (bw) of MSG; three treatment groups (T2.5, T5, T10), which were treated with black garlic extract (2.5, 5, 10 mg/200 g bw, respectively) and MSG. The spatial memory test was carried out using the Morris water maze (MWM) procedure, and the total number of pyramidal cells of the hippocampus was estimated using the physical disector design. The groups treated with black garlic extract were found to have a shorter path length than the C- and C+ groups in the escape acquisition phase of the MWM test. The estimated total number of pyramidal cells in the CA1 region of the hippocampus was higher in all treated groups than that of the C+ group. Based on these results, we conclude that combined administration of black garlic and MSG may alter the spatial memory functioning and total number of pyramidal neurons of the CA1 region of the hippocampus of rats.

  14. Stereological estimate of the total number of neurons in spinal segment D9 of the red-eared turtle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walløe, Solveig; Nissen, Ulla Vig; Berg, Rune W

    2011-01-01

    The red-eared turtle is an important animal model for investigating the neural activity in the spinal circuit that generates motor behavior. However, basic anatomical features, including the number of neurons in the spinal segments involved, are unknown. In the present study, we estimate the total...... number of neurons in segment D9 of the spinal cord in the red-eared turtle (Trachemys scripta elegans) using stereological cell counting methods. In transverse spinal cord sections stained with modified Giemsa, motoneurons (MNs), interneurons (INs), and non-neuronal cells were distinguished according...... to location and morphology. Each cell type was then counted separately using an optical disector with the cell nucleus as counting item. The number of cells in segment D9 was as follows (mean ± SE): MNs, 2049 ± 74; INs, 16,135 ± 316; non-neuronal cells, 47,504 ± 478 (n = 6). These results provide the first...

  15. 26 CFR 1.586-2 - Addition to reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... same ratio to loans outstanding at the close of the taxable year as: (i) The total bad debts (as... to increase the balance of the reserve for bad debts (as of the close of the taxable year) to the greater of: (1) The amount which bears the same ratio to loans outstanding at the close of the taxable...

  16. Total Factbook 2003

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This report presents the activities and results of the Group Total-Fina-Elf for the year 2003. It brings information and economic data on the following topics: the corporate and business; the upstream activities with the reserves, the costs, standardized measure and changes of discounted future net cash flow,oil and gas acreage, drilling, liquefied natural gas, pipelines; downstream activities with refining and marketing maps, refinery, petroleum products, sales, retail gasoline outlets; chemicals with sales and operating income by sector, major applications, base chemicals and polymers, intermediates and performance polymers. (A.L.B.)

  17. Noninvasive Assessment of Preload Reserve Enhances Risk Stratification of Patients With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Kensuke; Onishi, Akira; Yamada, Hirotsugu; Kusunose, Kenya; Suto, Makiko; Hatani, Yutaka; Matsuzoe, Hiroki; Tatsumi, Kazuhiro; Tanaka, Hidekazu; Hirata, Ken-Ichi

    2018-05-01

    The leg-positive pressure maneuver can safely and noninvasively apply preload stress without increase in total body fluid volume. The purpose of this study was to determine whether preload stress could be useful for risk stratification of patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. For this study, 120 consecutive patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction were prospectively recruited. The stroke work index was estimated as product of stroke volume index and mean blood pressure, and the E/e' ratio was calculated to estimate ventricular filling pressure. The echocardiographic parameters were obtained both at rest and during leg-positive pressure stress. During the median follow-up period of 20 months, 30 patients developed adverse cardiovascular events. During preload stress, stroke work index increased significantly (from 3280±1371 to 3857±1581 mm Hg·mL/m 2 ; P <0.001) along with minimal changes in ventricular filling pressure (E/e', from 16±10 to 17±9; P <0.05) in patients without cardiovascular events. However, patients with cardiovascular events showed impairment of Frank-Starling mechanism (stroke work index, from 2863±969 to 2903±1084 mm Hg·mL/m 2 ; P =0.70) and a serious increase in E/e' ratio (from 19±11 to 25±14; P <0.001). Both the patients without contractile reserve and those without diastolic reserve exhibited worse event-free survival than the others ( P <0.001). In a Cox proportional-hazards analysis, the changes in stroke work index (hazard ratio: 0.44 per 500 mm Hg·mL/m 2 increase; P =0.001) and in E/e' (hazard ratio: 2.58 per 5-U increase; P <0.001) were predictors of cardiovascular events. Contractile reserve and diastolic reserve during leg-positive pressure stress are important determinants of cardiovascular outcomes for patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

  18. Estimation of the total effective dose from low-dose CT scans and radiopharmaceutical administrations delivered to patients undergoing SPECT/CT explorations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montes, C.; Hernandez, J.; Gomez-Caminero, F.; Garcia, S.; Martin, C.; Rosero, A.; Tamayo, P.

    2013-01-01

    Hybrid imaging, such as single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT)/CT, is used in routine clinical practice, allowing coregistered images of the functional and structural information provided by the two imaging modalities. However, this multimodality imaging may mean that patients are exposed to a higher radiation dose than those receiving SPECT alone. The study aimed to determine the radiation exposure of patients who had undergone SPECT/CT examinations and to relate this to the Background Equivalent Radiation Time (BERT). 145 SPECT/CT studies were used to estimate the total effective dose to patients due to both radiopharmaceutical administrations and low-dose CT scans. The CT contribution was estimated by the Dose-Length Product method. Specific conversion coefficients were calculated for SPECT explorations. The radiation dose from low-dose CTs ranged between 0.6 mSv for head and neck CT and 2.6 mSv for whole body CT scan, representing a maximum of 1 year of background radiation exposure. These values represent a decrease of 80-85% with respect to the radiation dose from diagnostic CT. The radiation exposure from radiopharmaceutical administration varied from 2.1 mSv for stress myocardial perfusion SPECT to 26 mSv for gallium SPECT in patients with lymphoma. The BERT ranged from 1 to 11 years. The contribution of low-dose CT scans to the total radiation dose to patients undergoing SPECT/CT examinations is relatively low compared with the effective dose from radiopharmaceutical administration. When a CT scan is only acquired for anatomical localization and attenuation correction, low-dose CT scan is justified on the basis of its lower dose. (author)

  19. The Economics of NASA Mission Cost Reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitley, Sally; Shinn, Stephen

    2012-01-01

    Increases in NASA mission costs are well-noted but not well-understood, and there is little evidence that they are decreasing in frequency or amount over time. The need to control spending has led to analysis of the causes and magnitude of historical mission overruns, and many program control efforts are being implemented to attempt to prevent or mitigate the problem (NPR 7120). However, cost overruns have not abated, and while some direct causes of increased spending may be obvious (requirements creep, launch delays, directed changes, etc.), the underlying impetus to spend past the original budget may be more subtle. Gaining better insight into the causes of cost overruns will help NASA and its contracting organizations to avoid .them. This paper hypothesizes that one cause of NASA mission cost overruns is that the availability of reserves gives project team members an incentive to make decisions and behave in ways that increase costs. We theorize that the presence of reserves is a contributing factor to cost overruns because it causes organizations to use their funds less efficiently or to control spending less effectively. We draw a comparison to the insurance industry concept of moral hazard, the phenomenon that the presence of insurance causes insureds to have more frequent and higher insurance losses, and we attempt to apply actuarial techniques to quantifY the increase in the expected cost of a mission due to the availability of reserves. We create a theoretical model of reserve spending motivation by defining a variable ReserveSpending as a function of total reserves. This function has a positive slope; for every dollar of reserves available, there is a positive probability of spending it. Finally, the function should be concave down; the probability of spending each incremental dollar of reserves decreases progressively. We test the model against available NASA CADRe data by examining missions with reserve dollars initially available and testing whether

  20. The 'Own Children' fertility estimation procedure: a reappraisal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avery, Christopher; St Clair, Travis; Levin, Michael; Hill, Kenneth

    2013-07-01

    The Full Birth History has become the dominant source of estimates of fertility levels and trends for countries lacking complete birth registration. An alternative, the 'Own Children' method, derives fertility estimates from household age distributions, but is now rarely used, partly because of concerns about its accuracy. We compared the estimates from these two procedures by applying them to 56 recent Demographic and Health Surveys. On average, 'Own Children' estimates of recent total fertility rates are 3 per cent lower than birth-history estimates. Much of this difference stems from selection bias in the collection of birth histories: women with more children are more likely to be interviewed. We conclude that full birth histories overestimate total fertility, and that the 'Own Children' method gives estimates of total fertility that may better reflect overall national fertility. We recommend the routine application of the 'Own Children' method to census and household survey data to estimate fertility levels and trends.

  1. Prevalence of Total Hip and Knee Replacement in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maradit Kremers, Hilal; Larson, Dirk R; Crowson, Cynthia S; Kremers, Walter K; Washington, Raynard E; Steiner, Claudia A; Jiranek, William A; Berry, Daniel J

    2015-09-02

    Descriptive epidemiology of total joint replacement procedures is limited to annual procedure volumes (incidence). The prevalence of the growing number of individuals living with a total hip or total knee replacement is currently unknown. Our objective was to estimate the prevalence of total hip and total knee replacement in the United States. Prevalence was estimated using the counting method by combining historical incidence data from the National Hospital Discharge Survey and the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) State Inpatient Databases from 1969 to 2010 with general population census and mortality counts. We accounted for relative differences in mortality rates between those who have had total hip or knee replacement and the general population. The 2010 prevalence of total hip and total knee replacement in the total U.S. population was 0.83% and 1.52%, respectively. Prevalence was higher among women than among men and increased with age, reaching 5.26% for total hip replacement and 10.38% for total knee replacement at eighty years. These estimates corresponded to 2.5 million individuals (1.4 million women and 1.1 million men) with total hip replacement and 4.7 million individuals (3.0 million women and 1.7 million men) with total knee replacement in 2010. Secular trends indicated a substantial rise in prevalence over time and a shift to younger ages. Around 7 million Americans are living with a hip or knee replacement, and consequently, in most cases, are mobile, despite advanced arthritis. These numbers underscore the substantial public health impact of total hip and knee arthroplasties. Copyright © 2015 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

  2. Estimating total maximum daily loads with the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granato, Gregory; Jones, Susan Cheung

    2017-01-01

    The Massachusetts Department of Transportation (DOT) and the Rhode Island DOT are assessing and addressing roadway contributions to total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). Example analyses for total nitrogen, total phosphorus, suspended sediment, and total zinc in highway runoff were done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with FHWA to simulate long-term annual loads for TMDL analyses with the stochastic empirical loading and dilution model known as SELDM. Concentration statistics from 19 highway runoff monitoring sites in Massachusetts were used with precipitation statistics from 11 long-term monitoring sites to simulate long-term pavement yields (loads per unit area). Highway sites were stratified by traffic volume or surrounding land use to calculate concentration statistics for rural roads, low-volume highways, high-volume highways, and ultraurban highways. The median of the event mean concentration statistics in each traffic volume category was used to simulate annual yields from pavement for a 29- or 30-year period. Long-term average yields for total nitrogen, phosphorus, and zinc from rural roads are lower than yields from the other categories, but yields of sediment are higher than for the low-volume highways. The average yields of the selected water quality constituents from high-volume highways are 1.35 to 2.52 times the associated yields from low-volume highways. The average yields of the selected constituents from ultraurban highways are 1.52 to 3.46 times the associated yields from high-volume highways. Example simulations indicate that both concentration reduction and flow reduction by structural best management practices are crucial for reducing runoff yields.

  3. An employee total health management-based survey of Iowa employers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, James A; Lind, David P; Kelly, Kevin M; Hall, Jennifer L

    2013-12-01

    To implement an Employee Total Health Management (ETHM) model-based questionnaire and provide estimates of model program elements among a statewide sample of Iowa employers. Survey a stratified random sample of Iowa employers, and characterize and estimate employer participation in ETHM program elements. Iowa employers are implementing less than 30% of all 12 components of ETHM, with the exception of occupational safety and health (46.6%) and workers' compensation insurance coverage (89.2%), but intend modest expansion of all components in the coming year. The ETHM questionnaire-based survey provides estimates of progress Iowa employers are making toward implementing components of Total Worker Health programs.

  4. Overview of Turkey's coal necessity, reserves and utilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kilic, Ahmet Mahmut; Kilic, Ozen

    2006-10-15

    This article deals with overview of Turkey's coal necessity, reserves and utilization. Turkey is rapidly growing in terms of both its economy and its population. In parallel, its demand for energy, particularly for electricity, is increasing. Turkey possesses fossil fuel resources of hard coal (HC) and lignite (LG) have the greatest importance in energy production and for the national economy. The hard coal and lignite reserves of Turkey are 1.126 and 8.375 millions tons(Mt), respectively. Coal, the major fuel source for Turkey utilized mainly for electric power, steel manufacturing and cement production, amounts to 31% of total energy consumption in Turkey. To sum up, providing the total consumption is taken into account in the Middle East, the coal consumption rate of Turkey is approximately 90% of the consumption in this region.

  5. The effects of calcium regulation of endosperm reserve protein ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effects of steep liquor calcium ion on sorghum endosperm reserve protein mobilization were evaluated using two improved Nigeria sorghum cultivars (ICSV 400 and KSV 8). The key protein modification factors evaluated were free amino nitrogen (FAN), total non protein nitrogen (TNPN) and soluble protein of cold water ...

  6. Estimating the Total Economic Value of Cultivated Flower Land in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chin-Huang Huang

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Many arable land areas have been converted to residential or business uses by Taiwan government authorities, because the low farmland value is associated with the low value of agricultural products. However, agriculture is multifunctional. This study investigates farmland value through Total Economic Value (TEV for Tianwei Township, which is Taiwan’s largest floral farmland region. Direct use value measures the floral products’ output value and recreational benefit. Recreational benefit from visitors’ flower sightseeing was measured by the travel cost method (TCM. Option value and non-use value, including bequest value and existence value, measure the residents’ willingness to pay through the double-bounded dichotomous contingent valuation method (CVM. The results show that the total floral products’ output is NT$1.441 billion in 2007, recreational benefit is roughly NT$17.757 billion. The intangible value of option value and non-use values are approximately between NT$5 million to 15 million. Therefore, ignoring various values of farmland might lead to an underestimation of farmland value.

  7. Decadal time-scale monitoring of forest fires in Similipal Biosphere Reserve, India using remote sensing and GIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saranya, K R L; Reddy, C Sudhakar; Rao, P V V Prasada; Jha, C S

    2014-05-01

    Analyzing the spatial extent and distribution of forest fires is essential for sustainable forest resource management. There is no comprehensive data existing on forest fires on a regular basis in Biosphere Reserves of India. The present work have been carried out to locate and estimate the spatial extent of forest burnt areas using Resourcesat-1 data and fire frequency covering decadal fire events (2004-2013) in Similipal Biosphere Reserve. The anomalous quantity of forest burnt area was recorded during 2009 as 1,014.7 km(2). There was inconsistency in the fire susceptibility across the different vegetation types. The spatial analysis of burnt area shows that an area of 34.2 % of dry deciduous forests, followed by tree savannah, shrub savannah, and grasslands affected by fires in 2013. The analysis based on decadal time scale satellite data reveals that an area of 2,175.9 km(2) (59.6 % of total vegetation cover) has been affected by varied rate of frequency of forest fires. Fire density pattern indicates low count of burnt area patches in 2013 estimated at 1,017 and high count at 1,916 in 2004. An estimate of fire risk area over a decade identifies 12.2 km(2) is experiencing an annual fire damage. Summing the fire frequency data across the grids (each 1 km(2)) indicates 1,211 (26 %) grids are having very high disturbance regimes due to repeated fires in all the 10 years, followed by 711 grids in 9 years and 418 in 8 years and 382 in 7 years. The spatial database offers excellent opportunities to understand the ecological impact of fires on biodiversity and is helpful in formulating conservation action plans.

  8. Assessment of coal geology, resources, and reserves in the Montana Powder River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haacke, Jon E.; Scott, David C.; Osmonson, Lee M.; Luppens, James A.; Pierce, Paul E.; Gunderson, Jay A.

    2013-01-01

    /Cook, Pawnee, Rosebud/Knobloch, and Flowers-Goodale]). These 10 coal beds total about 151 billion short tons of the 162 billion short tons of available resource; however, after applying a strip ratio of 10:1 or less, only 39 billion short tons remains of the 151 billion short tons. After mining and processing losses are subtracted from the 39 billion short tons, 35 billion short tons of coal were considered as a recoverable resource. Coal reserves (economically recoverable coal) are the portion of the recoverable coal resource that can be mined, processed, and marketed at a profit at the time of the economic evaluation. The surface coal reserve estimate for the 10 coal beds evaluated for the Montana Powder River assessment area is 13 billion short tons. It was also determined that about 42 billion short tons of underground coal resource exists in the Montana Powder River Basin assessment area; about 34 billion short tons (80 percent) are within 500-1,000 feet of the land surface and another 8 billion short tons are 1,000-2,000 feet beneath the land surface.

  9. 77 FR 21846 - Reserve Requirements of Depository Institutions: Reserves Simplification

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-12

    ... Requirements of Depository Institutions: Reserves Simplification AGENCY: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: The Board is amending Regulation D, Reserve Requirements of Depository Institutions, to simplify the administration of reserve requirements. The final rule creates a...

  10. Estimation of Total Saponins and Evaluate Their Effect on in vitro Methanogenesis and Rumen Fermentation Pattern in Wheat Straw Based Diet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navneet Goel

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The present experiment was carried out to estimate the total saponins and evaluate their effect on methanogenesis and rumen fermentation by in vitro gas production techniques. Three plant material, rough chaff tree seed (Achyranthus aspara, T1, gokhru seed (Tribulus terrestris, T2 and Siris seed (Albizia lebbeck, T3 were selected for present study. The total saponins content in T1, T2 and T3 were 45.75, 25.65 and 48.26% (w/w, respectively. Three levels of each saponins (3, 6 and 9% on DM basis and wheat straw based (50R:50C medium fiber diet (200±10 mg were used for the evaluation of their effect on methanogenesis and rumen fermentation pattern. Results showed the maximum methane reduction (49.66% in term of mM/gDDM and acetate propionate ration (35.08% were found in T1 at 6 and 3% levels. Result show that propionate production (mM/ml was increased; protozoa population decreased (75% significantly on addition with T3 at 6% level. No significant variation was found in dry matter digestibility in all cases. The present results demonstrate that total saponins extracted from different herbal plants are a promising rumen modifying agent. They have the potential to modulate the methane production, dry matter digestibility and microbial biomass synthesis.

  11. Global Electric Circuit Implications of Total Current Measurements over Electrified Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Douglas M.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Bateman, Monte G.

    2009-01-01

    We determined total conduction (Wilson) currents and flash rates for 850 overflights of electrified clouds spanning regions including the Southeastern United States, the Western Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, Central America and adjacent oceans, Central Brazil, and the South Pacific. The overflights include storms over land and ocean, with and without lightning, and with positive and negative Wilson currents. We combined these individual storm overflight statistics with global diurnal lightning variation data from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) to estimate the thunderstorm and electrified shower cloud contributions to the diurnal variation in the global electric circuit. The contributions to the global electric circuit from lightning producing clouds are estimated by taking the mean current per flash derived from the overflight data for land and ocean overflights and combining it with the global lightning rates (for land and ocean) and their diurnal variation derived from the LIS/OTD data. We estimate the contribution of non-lightning producing electrified clouds by assuming several different diurnal variations and total non-electrified storm counts to produce estimates of the total storm currents (lightning and non-lightning producing storms). The storm counts and diurnal variations are constrained so that the resultant total current diurnal variation equals the diurnal variation in the fair weather electric field (+/-15%). These assumptions, combined with the airborne and satellite data, suggest that the total mean current in the global electric circuit ranges from 2.0 to 2.7 kA, which is greater than estimates made by others using other methods.

  12. South African dietary total antioxidant capacity based on secondary ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: In this exploratory study, the average adult South African dietary total antioxidant capacity (TAC) was estimated using secondary data and was evaluated against that determined for dietary intake recommendations. Design: The average adult South African dietary TAC was estimated using a report published by ...

  13. Energy reserves and power plants in the USSR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Madaus, C

    1971-12-01

    Solid fuels are still of primary importance in the USSR. Coal reserves and production rates are outlined. Natural gas reserves are estimated to be about 70 x 10/sup 18/m/sup 3/, with operational fields having a capacity of about 12.1 x 10/sup 18/m/sup 3/. Detailed data concerning gas and hydrodynamic reserves, energy production statistics, and high-capacity condensation-turbines are tabulated. Extensive technical data is also provided concerning installed nuclear, thermal, and hydroelectric power plants. Solar energy remains in very early stages of development. In some areas, particularly the foothills of the Caucasus, Kirim, and Kamchatka, conditions are highly favorable for the development of geothermal power plants. A geothermal installation is planned for Kamchatka. It will have a capacity of 700-850 MW, and will be driven by thermal waters arising from the Awatschinskaja Sopka volcano. Four tidal power-plants were planned for construction by 1976. The first was completed in 1968, at the Barent Sea. One of these plants will have a capacity of 30-35 TWh/annum.

  14. Use of household supermarket sales data to estimate nutrient intakes: a comparison with repeat 24-hour dietary recalls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eyles, Helen; Jiang, Yannan; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona

    2010-01-01

    Electronic supermarket sales data provide a promising, novel way of estimating nutrient intakes. However, little is known about how these data reflect the nutrients consumed by an individual household member. A cross-sectional survey of 49 primary household shoppers (age [mean+/-standard deviation age]=48+/-14 years; 84% female) from Wellington, New Zealand, was undertaken. Three months of baseline electronic supermarket sales data were compared with individual dietary intakes estimated from four random 24-hour dietary recalls collected during the same 3-month period. Spearman rank correlations between household purchases and individual intakes ranged from 0.54 for percentage of energy from saturated fat (Psupermarket sales data may be a useful surrogate measure of some nutrient intakes of individuals, particularly percentage of energy from saturated and total fat. In the case of a supermarket intervention, an effect on household sales of percentage energy from saturated and total fat is also likely to impact the saturated and total fat intake of individual household members. Copyright 2010 American Dietetic Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. First Zenith Total Delay and Integrated Water Vapour Estimates from the Near Real-Time GNSS Data Processing Systems at the University of Luxembourg

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, F.; Teferle, F. N.; Bingley, R. M.

    2012-04-01

    Since September 2011 the University of Luxembourg in collaboration with the University of Nottingham has been setting up two near real-time processing systems for ground-based GNSS data for the provision of zenith total delay (ZTD) and integrated water vapour (IWV) estimates. Both systems are based on Bernese v5.0, use the double-differenced network processing strategy and operate with a 1-hour (NRT1h) and 15-minutes (NRT15m) update cycle. Furthermore, the systems follow the approach of the E-GVAP METO and IES2 systems in that the normal equations for the latest data are combined with those from the previous four updates during the estimation of the ZTDs. NRT1h currently takes the hourly data from over 130 GNSS stations in Europe whereas NRT15m is primarily using the real-time streams of EUREF-IP. Both networks include additional GNSS stations in Luxembourg, Belgium and France. The a priori station coordinates for all of these stem from a moving average computed over the last 20 to 50 days and are based on the precise point positioning processing strategy. In this study we present the first ZTD and IWV estimates obtained from the NRT1h and NRT15m systems in development at the University of Luxembourg. In a preliminary evaluation we compare their performance to the IES2 system at the University of Nottingham and find the IWV estimates to agree at the sub-millimetre level.

  16. Changing stakeholder relationships in nature reserve management: a case study on Snake Island-Laotie Mountain National Nature Reserve, Liaoning, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Dan; Wang, Ziyan; Lassoie, James; Wang, Xiaoping; Sun, Lixin

    2014-12-15

    The number and total area of nature reserves in China has increased rapidly over the past couple of decades; however, the ability to effectively manage these reserves has not kept pace and conflicts between conservation efforts and economic development have emerged. The Snake Island-Laotie Mountain National Nature Reserve (SILMNNR) currently is experiencing the challenges of balancing conservation with local community development. This paper uses components analysis of human ecosystems (HEC) to examine conflicts arising from the management of the nature reserve and uses a stakeholder analysis to identify and better understand stakeholder inter-relationships in the SILMNNR-HEC. The goal of this study is to identify critical factors influencing stakeholder relationships in order to find ways of relieving conflicts between the reserve management and development. The stakeholder analysis revealed that the key stakeholders in the SILMNNR-HEC are natural resources, the Liaoning SILMNNR Authority, local residents, and enterprise developers; however, there was unequal power among stakeholders in the decision making process affecting the nature reserve. The paper evaluated the conditions and processes of SILMNNR-HEC through a framework of stakeholder relationships where critical factors, such as policy, finance, technology, and labor, and their respective strengths and feedbacks among stakeholders, were assessed and showed unequal flows of power among stakeholders. Two approaches are provided for transforming the unbalanced relationships into a stable and sustainable framework to sustainably manage the nature reserve: the first is by changing stakeholder relationships from opposition to cooperation; and the second by enhancing feedbacks and dynamics among stakeholders. The analysis used in this paper can be used as a model to assess conflicts around other protected areas in China and elsewhere. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Estimation of the total efficiency of metabolizable energy utilization for maintenance and growth by cattle in tropical conditions Estimação da eficiência total de utilização da energia metabolizável para manutenção e crescimento por bovinos em condições tropicais

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas Sampaio Henrique

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Data of 320 animals were obtained from eight comparative slaughter studies performed under tropical conditions and used to estimate the total efficiency of utilization of the metabolizable energy intake (MEI, which varied from 77 to 419 kcal kg-0.75d-1. The provided data also contained direct measures of the recovered energy (RE, which allowed calculating the heat production (HE by difference. The RE was regressed on MEI and deviations from linearity were evaluated by using the F-test. The respective estimates of the fasting heat production and the intercept and the slope that composes the relationship between RE and MEI were 73 kcal kg-0.75d-1, 42 kcal kg-0.75d-1 and 0.37. Hence, the total efficiency was estimated by dividing the net energy for maintenance and growth by the metabolizable energy intake. The estimated total efficiency of the ME utilization and analogous estimates based on the beef cattle NRC model were employed in an additional study to evaluate their predictive powers in terms of the mean square deviations for both temperate and tropical conditions. The two approaches presented similar predictive powers but the proposed one had a 22% lower mean squared deviation even with its more simplified structure.Foram utilizadas 320 informações obtidas a partir de 8 estudos de abate comparativo conduzidos em condições tropicais para se estimar a eficiência total de utilização da energia metabolizável consumida, a qual variou de 77 a 419kcal kg-0.75d-1. Os dados também continham informações sobre a energia retida (RE, o que permitiu o cálculo da produção de calor por diferença. As estimativas da produção de calor em jejum e dos coeficientes linear e angular da regressão entre RE e MEI foram respectivamente, 73 kcal kg-0.75d-1, 42 kcal kg-0.75d-1 e 0,37. Em seguida, a eficiência total foi estimada dividindo-se a energia líquida para mantença e produção pelo consumo de energia metabolizável. A eficiência total de

  18. Comparison of compensatory reserve during lower-body negative pressure and hemorrhage in nonhuman primates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Jeffrey T.; Mulligan, Jane; Grudic, Greg Z.; Convertino, Victor A.

    2016-01-01

    Compensatory reserve was measured in baboons (n = 13) during hemorrhage (Hem) and lower-body negative pressure (LBNP) using a machine-learning algorithm developed to estimate compensatory reserve by detecting reductions in central blood volume during LBNP. The algorithm calculates compensatory reserve index (CRI) from normovolemia (CRI = 1) to cardiovascular decompensation (CRI = 0). The hypothesis was that Hem and LBNP will elicit similar CRI values and that CRI would have higher specificity than stroke volume (SV) in predicting decompensation. Blood was removed in four steps: 6.25%, 12.5%, 18.75%, and 25% of total blood volume. Four weeks after Hem, the same animals were subjected to four levels of LBNP that was matched on the basis of their central venous pressure. Data (mean ± 95% confidence interval) indicate that CRI decreased (P < 0.001) from baseline during Hem (0.69 ± 0.10, 0.57 ± 0.09, 0.36 ± 0.10, 0.16 ± 0.08, and 0.08 ± 0.03) and LBNP (0.76 ± 0.05, 0.66 ± 0.08, 0.36 ± 0.13, 0.23 ± 0.11, and 0.14 ± 0.09). CRI was not different between Hem and LBNP (P = 0.20). Linear regression analysis between Hem CRI and LBNP CRI revealed a slope of 1.03 and a correlation coefficient of 0.96. CRI exhibited greater specificity than SV in both Hem (92.3 vs. 82.1) and LBNP (94.8 vs. 83.1) and greater ROC AUC in Hem (0.94 vs. 0.84) and LBNP (0.94 vs. 0.92). These data support the hypothesis that Hem and LBNP elicited the same CRI response, suggesting that measurement of compensatory reserve is superior to SV as a predictor of cardiovascular decompensation PMID:27030667

  19. Compressed nature : co-existing grazers in a small reserve in Kenya

    OpenAIRE

    Mwasi, S.M.

    2002-01-01

    Wildlife habitats in Kenya are getting more fragmented and isolated due to increasing human activities within them. This has resulted in the establishment of several small nature reserves where wildlife is protected from human interference. Grazers contribute a large proportion of total herbivore biomass in these reserves, and their populations are likely to increase due to stoppage of migration and reduction in their home range sizes (for large home range holders) caused by fencing,...

  20. Estimation of maternal and neonatal mortality at the subnational level in Liberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moseson, Heidi; Massaquoi, Moses; Bawo, Luke; Birch, Linda; Dahn, Bernice; Zolia, Yah; Barreix, Maria; Gerdts, Caitlin

    2014-11-01

    To establish representative local-area baseline estimates of maternal and neonatal mortality using a novel adjusted sisterhood method. The status of maternal and neonatal health in Bomi County, Liberia, was investigated in June 2013 using a population-based survey (n=1985). The standard direct sisterhood method was modified to account for place and time of maternal death to enable calculation of subnational estimates. The modified method of measuring maternal mortality successfully enabled the calculation of area-specific estimates. Of 71 reported deaths of sisters, 18 (25.4%) were due to pregnancy-related causes and had occurred in the past 3 years in Bomi County. The estimated maternal mortality ratio was 890 maternal deaths for every 100 000 live births (95% CI, 497-1301]. The neonatal mortality rate was estimated to be 47 deaths for every 1000 live births (95% CI, 42-52). In total, 322 (16.9%) of 1900 women with accurate age data reported having had a stillbirth. The modified direct sisterhood method may be useful to other countries seeking a more regionally nuanced understanding of areas in which neonatal and maternal mortality levels still need to be reduced to meet Millennium Development Goals. Copyright © 2014 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. 2004 Workplace and Gender Relations Survey of Reserve Component Members: Tabulations of Responses

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2005-01-01

    The 2004 Workplace and Gender Relations Survey of Reserve Component Members was designed to both estimate the level of sexual harassment and provide information on a variety of consequences of sexual harassment...

  2. A framework for stochastic simulation of distribution practices for hotel reservations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halkos, George E.; Tsilika, Kyriaki D. [Laboratory of Operations Research, Department of Economics, University of Thessaly, Korai 43, 38 333, Volos (Greece)

    2015-03-10

    The focus of this study is primarily on the Greek hotel industry. The objective is to design and develop a framework for stochastic simulation of reservation requests, reservation arrivals, cancellations and hotel occupancy with a planning horizon of a tourist season. In Greek hospitality industry there have been two competing policies for reservation planning process up to 2003: reservations coming directly from customers and a reservations management relying on tour operator(s). Recently the Internet along with other emerging technologies has offered the potential to disrupt enduring distribution arrangements. The focus of the study is on the choice of distribution intermediaries. We present an empirical model for the hotel reservation planning process that makes use of a symbolic simulation, Monte Carlo method, as, requests for reservations, cancellations, and arrival rates are all sources of uncertainty. We consider as a case study the problem of determining the optimal booking strategy for a medium size hotel in Skiathos Island, Greece. Probability distributions and parameters estimation result from the historical data available and by following suggestions made in the relevant literature. The results of this study may assist hotel managers define distribution strategies for hotel rooms and evaluate the performance of the reservations management system.

  3. A framework for stochastic simulation of distribution practices for hotel reservations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halkos, George E.; Tsilika, Kyriaki D.

    2015-01-01

    The focus of this study is primarily on the Greek hotel industry. The objective is to design and develop a framework for stochastic simulation of reservation requests, reservation arrivals, cancellations and hotel occupancy with a planning horizon of a tourist season. In Greek hospitality industry there have been two competing policies for reservation planning process up to 2003: reservations coming directly from customers and a reservations management relying on tour operator(s). Recently the Internet along with other emerging technologies has offered the potential to disrupt enduring distribution arrangements. The focus of the study is on the choice of distribution intermediaries. We present an empirical model for the hotel reservation planning process that makes use of a symbolic simulation, Monte Carlo method, as, requests for reservations, cancellations, and arrival rates are all sources of uncertainty. We consider as a case study the problem of determining the optimal booking strategy for a medium size hotel in Skiathos Island, Greece. Probability distributions and parameters estimation result from the historical data available and by following suggestions made in the relevant literature. The results of this study may assist hotel managers define distribution strategies for hotel rooms and evaluate the performance of the reservations management system

  4. Assessment of sampling strategies for estimation of site mean concentrations of stormwater pollutants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, David T; Zhang, Kefeng; Westerlund, Camilla; Viklander, Maria; Bertrand-Krajewski, Jean-Luc; Fletcher, Tim D; Deletic, Ana

    2018-02-01

    The estimation of stormwater pollutant concentrations is a primary requirement of integrated urban water management. In order to determine effective sampling strategies for estimating pollutant concentrations, data from extensive field measurements at seven different catchments was used. At all sites, 1-min resolution continuous flow measurements, as well as flow-weighted samples, were taken and analysed for total suspend solids (TSS), total nitrogen (TN) and Escherichia coli (E. coli). For each of these parameters, the data was used to calculate the Event Mean Concentrations (EMCs) for each event. The measured Site Mean Concentrations (SMCs) were taken as the volume-weighted average of these EMCs for each parameter, at each site. 17 different sampling strategies, including random and fixed strategies were tested to estimate SMCs, which were compared with the measured SMCs. The ratios of estimated/measured SMCs were further analysed to determine the most effective sampling strategies. Results indicate that the random sampling strategies were the most promising method in reproducing SMCs for TSS and TN, while some fixed sampling strategies were better for estimating the SMC of E. coli. The differences in taking one, two or three random samples were small (up to 20% for TSS, and 10% for TN and E. coli), indicating that there is little benefit in investing in collection of more than one sample per event if attempting to estimate the SMC through monitoring of multiple events. It was estimated that an average of 27 events across the studied catchments are needed for characterising SMCs of TSS with a 90% confidence interval (CI) width of 1.0, followed by E.coli (average 12 events) and TN (average 11 events). The coefficient of variation of pollutant concentrations was linearly and significantly correlated to the 90% confidence interval ratio of the estimated/measured SMCs (R 2  = 0.49; P sampling frequency needed to accurately estimate SMCs of pollutants. Crown

  5. Financial, operating results, assets total down for OGJ300

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    Financial and operating results of the Oil and Gas Journal 300 dropped again in 1992. It was the second consecutive set of declines for OGJ's list of the largest publicly traded, oil and gas producing companies in the U.S. Totals fell from 1991 results in almost all categories for financial and operating performance. Group net income fell sharply in 1992. Large, integrated companies reported sharp earnings declines, many of them related to special charges for restructuring and mandatory accounting changes. In addition, revenues were suppressed by lower crude and product prices below levels of 1991 and a decline in total crude production. This was partially offset by higher prices and demand for natural gas and by increased demand for petroleum products. The paper discusses the economic situation in the petroleum and natural gas industries then gives extensive data on the following: total assets, total income, net income, stockholders' equity, capital spending, worldwide and US liquids production, worldwide and US natural gas production, worldwide and US liquids reserves, worldwide and US natural gas reserves, and US net wells drilled

  6. FASB statement 121 and other accounting issues affecting reserves reporting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowden, K R [Currie Coopers and Lybrand, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1996-03-01

    The provisions required by FASB 121, and their impact on oil and gas properties, were explained. This included the impact of FASB statement 121, accounting for the impairment of long-lived assets and for assets to be disposed of on oil and gas properties. A two-tiered approach to recognition and measurement was described, as well as how reserve estimates are used for measurement of impairment. Reserve reports were considered to be the basis for financial statement disclosure. Procedures for reporting of finding costs and acquisition costs according to FASB 69 were described, and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reporting requirements were summarized.

  7. FASB statement 121 and other accounting issues affecting reserves reporting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowden, K.R.

    1996-01-01

    The provisions required by FASB 121, and their impact on oil and gas properties, were explained. This included the impact of FASB statement 121, accounting for the impairment of long-lived assets and for assets to be disposed of on oil and gas properties. A two-tiered approach to recognition and measurement was described, as well as how reserve estimates are used for measurement of impairment. Reserve reports were considered to be the basis for financial statement disclosure. Procedures for reporting of finding costs and acquisition costs according to FASB 69 were described, and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reporting requirements were summarized

  8. A Sensorless Power Reserve Control Strategy for Two-Stage Grid-Connected PV Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sangwongwanich, Ariya; Yang, Yongheng; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2017-01-01

    Due to the still increasing penetration of grid-connected Photovoltaic (PV) systems, advanced active power control functionalities have been introduced in grid regulations. A power reserve control, where namely the active power from the PV panels is reserved during operation, is required for grid...... support. In this paper, a cost-effective solution to realize the power reserve for two-stage grid-connected PV systems is proposed. The proposed solution routinely employs a Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) control to estimate the available PV power and a Constant Power Generation (CPG) control...... performed on a 3-kW two-stage single-phase grid-connected PV system, where the power reserve control is achieved upon demands....

  9. Optimal Offering Strategies for Wind Power in Energy and Primary Reserve Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soares, Tiago; Pinson, Pierre; Jensen, Tue Vissing

    2016-01-01

    generation from the turbines. These offering strategies aim at maximizing expected revenues from both market floors using probabilistic forecasts for wind power generation, complemented with estimated regulation costs and penalties for failing to provide primary reserve. A set of numerical examples, as well......Wind power generation is to play an important role in supplying electric power demand, and will certainly impact the design of future energy and reserve markets. Operators of wind power plants will consequently develop adequate offering strategies, accounting for the market rules...... and the operational capabilities of the turbines, e.g., to participate in primary reserve markets. We consider two different offering strategies for joint participation of wind power in energy and primary reserve markets, based on the idea of proportional and constant splitting of potentially available power...

  10. Status of fossil fuel reserves; Etat des reserves des combustibles fossiles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laherrere, J

    2005-07-01

    Reserves represent the sum of past and future productions up to the end of production. In most countries the reserve data of fields are confidential. Therefore, fossil fuel reserves are badly known because the published data are more political than technical and many countries make a confusion between resources and reserves. The cumulated production of fossil fuels represents only between a third and a fifth of the ultimate reserves. The production peak will take place between 2020 and 2050. In the ultimate reserves, which extrapolate the past, the fossil fuels represent three thirds of the overall energy. This document analyses the uncertainties linked with fossil fuel reserves: reliability of published data, modeling of future production, comparison with other energy sources, energy consumption forecasts, reserves/production ratio, exploitation of non-conventional hydrocarbons (tar sands, extra-heavy oils, bituminous shales, coal gas, gas shales, methane in overpressure aquifers, methane hydrates), technology impacts, prices impact, and reserves growth. (J.S.)

  11. Reverse survival method of fertility estimation: An evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Spoorenberg

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: For the most part, demographers have relied on the ever-growing body of sample surveys collecting full birth history to derive total fertility estimates in less statistically developed countries. Yet alternative methods of fertility estimation can return very consistent total fertility estimates by using only basic demographic information. Objective: This paper evaluates the consistency and sensitivity of the reverse survival method -- a fertility estimation method based on population data by age and sex collected in one census or a single-round survey. Methods: A simulated population was first projected over 15 years using a set of fertility and mortality age and sex patterns. The projected population was then reverse survived using the Excel template FE_reverse_4.xlsx, provided with Timæus and Moultrie (2012. Reverse survival fertility estimates were then compared for consistency to the total fertility rates used to project the population. The sensitivity was assessed by introducing a series of distortions in the projection of the population and comparing the difference implied in the resulting fertility estimates. Results: The reverse survival method produces total fertility estimates that are very consistent and hardly affected by erroneous assumptions on the age distribution of fertility or by the use of incorrect mortality levels, trends, and age patterns. The quality of the age and sex population data that is 'reverse survived' determines the consistency of the estimates. The contribution of the method for the estimation of past and present trends in total fertility is illustrated through its application to the population data of five countries characterized by distinct fertility levels and data quality issues. Conclusions: Notwithstanding its simplicity, the reverse survival method of fertility estimation has seldom been applied. The method can be applied to a large body of existing and easily available population data

  12. Estimating the contribution of strong daily export events to total pollutant export from the United States in summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Yuanyuan; Fiore, Arlene M.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Levy, Hiram; Hu, Yongtao; Russell, Armistead G.

    2009-12-01

    While the export of pollutants from the United States exhibits notable variability from day to day and is often considered to be "episodic," the contribution of strong daily export events to total export has not been quantified. We use carbon monoxide (CO) as a tracer of anthropogenic pollutants in the Model of OZone And Related Tracers (MOZART) to estimate this contribution. We first identify the major export pathway from the United States to be through the northeast boundary (24-48°N along 67.5°W and 80-67.5°W along 48°N), and then analyze 15 summers of daily CO export fluxes through this boundary. These daily CO export fluxes have a nearly Gaussian distribution with a mean of 1100 Gg CO day-1 and a standard deviation of 490 Gg CO day-1. To focus on the synoptic variability, we define a "synoptic background" export flux equal to the 15 day moving average export flux and classify strong export days according to their fluxes relative to this background. As expected from Gaussian statistics, 16% of summer days are "strong export days," classified as those days when the CO export flux exceeds the synoptic background by one standard deviation or more. Strong export days contributes 25% to the total export, a value determined by the relative standard deviation of the CO flux distribution. Regressing the anomalies of the CO export flux through the northeast U.S. boundary relative to the synoptic background on the daily anomalies in the surface pressure field (also relative to a 15 day running mean) suggests that strong daily export fluxes are correlated with passages of midlatitude cyclones over the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. The associated cyclonic circulation and Warm Conveyor Belts (WCBs) that lift surface pollutants over the northeastern United States have been shown previously to be associated with long-range transport events. Comparison with observations from the 2004 INTEX-NA field campaign confirms that our model captures the observed enhancements in CO outflow

  13. Nondestructive, stereological estimation of canopy surface area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulfsohn, Dvora-Laio; Sciortino, Marco; Aaslyng, Jesper M.

    2010-01-01

    We describe a stereological procedure to estimate the total leaf surface area of a plant canopy in vivo, and address the problem of how to predict the variance of the corresponding estimator. The procedure involves three nested systematic uniform random sampling stages: (i) selection of plants from...... a canopy using the smooth fractionator, (ii) sampling of leaves from the selected plants using the fractionator, and (iii) area estimation of the sampled leaves using point counting. We apply this procedure to estimate the total area of a chrysanthemum (Chrysanthemum morifolium L.) canopy and evaluate both...... the time required and the precision of the estimator. Furthermore, we compare the precision of point counting for three different grid intensities with that of several standard leaf area measurement techniques. Results showed that the precision of the plant leaf area estimator based on point counting...

  14. Reserve growth in German oilfields; Reservenwachstum in deutschen Erdoelfeldern

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schwietzer, Curt-Albert [RWE Dea AG, Hamburg (Germany)

    2013-07-15

    In the English language use, the term ''Reserve Growth'' describes the fact that in most cases at the start of a field development the estimated ultimate recovery of reserves (EUR) is smaller than it will turn out later by production history. Although this phenomenon of reserve growth gives hints for new reserves in mature hydrocarbon provinces, it has hardly been investigated. In the few existing studies about this issue it is shown that reserve growth is, in the majority of cases, based on factors like the application of improved methods to increase the recovery factor as well as on optimization of the reservoir development by precise modeling and simulation as well as on changing of the reserve classification. Different combinations of these factors affect the changes of reserves during the life of the reservoir. This study investigates the reserve trend of 35 German oilfields over the last 40 to 50 years. Most of them register reserve growth; in some cases even a factor > 10 was achieved. On average, this reserve growth factor can be calculated as 3. A similar study about US American onshore oilfields was carried out for the first time by Arrington; this was, at a later time, revised by the USGS. In the article, Mahendra K. Verma developed the ''Growth Function'' by regression. The ''Growth Function'' describes the changes of proved reserves during the life of an oil reservoir. It indicates that ten years after production start, the reserves increased by three times, whereas the largest proportion of this increase occurred in the first three years. During the next 30 years, the reserves growth factor increased by up to 5.3; at the point of 95 years of production it accumulated to 6.9. In the case of the analysed German oilfields, the reserve growth behaviour was similar. Corresponding to the ''Growth Function'' after 40 years of production, it achieved a factor of 5 and reached a

  15. Analyses and estimates of hydraulic conductivity from slug tests in alluvial aquifer underlying Air Force Plant 4 and Naval Air Station-Joint Reserve Base Carswell Field, Fort Worth, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houston, Natalie A.; Braun, Christopher L.

    2004-01-01

    This report describes the collection, analyses, and distribution of hydraulic-conductivity data obtained from slug tests completed in the alluvial aquifer underlying Air Force Plant 4 and Naval Air Station-Joint Reserve Base Carswell Field, Fort Worth, Texas, during October 2002 and August 2003 and summarizes previously available hydraulic-conductivity data. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Air Force, completed 30 slug tests in October 2002 and August 2003 to obtain estimates of horizontal hydraulic conductivity to use as initial values in a ground-water-flow model for the site. The tests were done by placing a polyvinyl-chloride slug of known volume beneath the water level in selected wells, removing the slug, and measuring the resulting water-level recovery over time. The water levels were measured with a pressure transducer and recorded with a data logger. Hydraulic-conductivity values were estimated from an analytical relation between the instantaneous displacement of water in a well bore and the resulting rate of head change. Although nearly two-thirds of the tested wells recovered 90 percent of their slug-induced head change in less than 2 minutes, 90-percent recovery times ranged from 3 seconds to 35 minutes. The estimates of hydraulic conductivity range from 0.2 to 200 feet per day. Eighty-three percent of the estimates are between 1 and 100 feet per day.

  16. Estimating and localizing the algebraic and total numerical errors using flux reconstructions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Papež, Jan; Strakoš, Z.; Vohralík, M.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 138, č. 3 (2018), s. 681-721 ISSN 0029-599X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-06684S Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) LL1202 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : numerical solution of partial differential equations * finite element method * a posteriori error estimation * algebraic error * discretization error * stopping criteria * spatial distribution of the error Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 2.152, year: 2016

  17. Tigers and Their Prey in Bukit Rimbang Bukit Baling: Abundance Baseline for Effective Wildlife Reserve Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Febri Anggriawan Widodo

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Managing the critically endangered Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae needs accurate information on its abundance and availability of prey at the landscape level. Bukit Rimbang Bukit Baling Wildlife Reserve in central Sumatra represents an important area for tigers at local, regional and global levels. The area has been recognized as a long-term priority Tiger Conservation Landscape. Solid baseline information on tigers and prey is fundamentally needed for the management. The objective of this study was to produce robust estimate of tiger density and prey a vailability in the reserve. We used camera traps to systematically collecting photographic samples of tigers and prey using Spatial Capture Recapture (SCR framework. We estimated density for tigers and calculated trap success rate (TSR; independent pictures/100 trap nights for main prey species. Three blocks in the reserve were sampled from 2012 to 2015 accumulating a total of 8,125 effective trap nights. We captured 14 tiger individuals including three cubs. We documented the highest density of tigers (individuals/100 km2 in southern sampling block (based on traditional capture recapture (TCR : 1.52 ± SE 0.55; based on Maximum Likelihood (ML SCR:0.51 ± SE 0.22 and the lowest in northeastern sampling block (TCR: 0.77 ±SE 0.39; ML SCR: 0.19 ± SE 0.16. The highest TSR of main prey (large ungulates and primates was in northeastern block (35.01 ± SD 8.67 and the lowest was in southern block (12.42 ± SD 2.91. The highest level of disturbance, as indicated by TSR of people, was in northeastern sampling block (5.45 ± SD 5.64 and the lowest in southern (1.26 ± SD 2.41. The results suggested that human disturbance strongly determine the density of tigers in the area, more than prey availability. To recover tigers, suggested strategies include controlling human disturbance and poaching to the lowest possible level in addition to maintaining main prey availability.

  18. Using basal area to estimate aboveground carbon stocks in forests: La Primavera Biosphere's Reserve, Mexico

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balderas Torres, Arturo; Lovett, Jonathan Cranidge

    2012-01-01

    Increasing use of woody plants for greenhouse gas mitigation has led to demand for rapid, cost-effective estimation of forest carbon stocks. Bole diameter is readily measured and basal area can be correlated to biomass and carbon through application of allometric equations. We explore different

  19. Estimation of Total Usual Calcium and Vitamin D Intakes in the United States1–3

    OpenAIRE

    Bailey, Regan L.; Dodd, Kevin W.; Goldman, Joseph A.; Gahche, Jaime J.; Dwyer, Johanna T.; Moshfegh, Alanna J.; Sempos, Christopher T.; Picciano, Mary Frances

    2010-01-01

    Our objective in this study was to estimate calcium intakes from food, water, dietary supplements, and antacids for U.S. citizens aged ≥1 y using NHANES 2003–2006 data and the Dietary Reference Intake panel age groupings. Similar estimates were calculated for vitamin D intake from food and dietary supplements using NHANES 2005–2006. Diet was assessed with 2 24-h recalls; dietary supplement and antacid use were determined by questionnaire. The National Cancer Institute method was used to estim...

  20. 77 FR 66361 - Reserve Requirements of Depository Institutions: Reserves Simplification

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-05

    ... Requirements of Depository Institutions: Reserves Simplification AGENCY: Board of Governors of the Federal... (Reserve Requirements of Depository Institutions) published in the Federal Register on April 12, 2012. The... simplifications related to the administration of reserve requirements: 1. Create a common two-week maintenance...

  1. Estimating exposure of terrestrial wildlife to contaminants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sample, B.E.; Suter, G.W. II

    1994-09-01

    This report describes generalized models for the estimation of contaminant exposure experienced by wildlife on the Oak Ridge Reservation. The primary exposure pathway considered is oral ingestion, e.g. the consumption of contaminated food, water, or soil. Exposure through dermal absorption and inhalation are special cases and are not considered hereIN. Because wildlife mobile and generally consume diverse diets and because environmental contamination is not spatial homogeneous, factors to account for variation in diet, movement, and contaminant distribution have been incorporated into the models. To facilitate the use and application of the models, life history parameters necessary to estimate exposure are summarized for 15 common wildlife species. Finally, to display the application of the models, exposure estimates were calculated for four species using data from a source operable unit on the Oak Ridge Reservation.

  2. Estimating exposure of terrestrial wildlife to contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sample, B.E.; Suter, G.W. II.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes generalized models for the estimation of contaminant exposure experienced by wildlife on the Oak Ridge Reservation. The primary exposure pathway considered is oral ingestion, e.g. the consumption of contaminated food, water, or soil. Exposure through dermal absorption and inhalation are special cases and are not considered hereIN. Because wildlife mobile and generally consume diverse diets and because environmental contamination is not spatial homogeneous, factors to account for variation in diet, movement, and contaminant distribution have been incorporated into the models. To facilitate the use and application of the models, life history parameters necessary to estimate exposure are summarized for 15 common wildlife species. Finally, to display the application of the models, exposure estimates were calculated for four species using data from a source operable unit on the Oak Ridge Reservation

  3. Foreign Exchange Reserves and the Reserve Bank’s Balance Sheet

    OpenAIRE

    Christian Vallence

    2012-01-01

    The Reserve Bank of Australia holds and manages the nation’s foreign exchange reserve assets in order to meet its policy objectives. While Australia’s foreign exchange reserves are relatively modest by international standards, they nonetheless constitute a sizeable portion of the Bank’s balance sheet, and variations in the Australian dollar value of these reserves are usually the most volatile component of the Bank’s profit and loss statement. This article discusses some of the key decisions ...

  4. [Energy requirements in adolescents playing basketball in Russian Olympic reserve team].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinchik, A N; Baturin, A K; Petukhov, A B; Baeva, V S; Zemlianskaia, T A; Sokolov, A I; Peskova, E V; Tysiachnaia, E M

    2003-01-01

    The energy expenditure and requirements and dietary intake were studied in basketball players aged 14-16 years during 3 week-training period. The subjects of study were 14 boys and 18 girls as of the members of reserve of Russian Olympic basketball team. The dietary intake was estimated by dietary record of all food consumed within 24 hours last 7 days of training period. The energy expenditure was estimated by registration of time on different physical activity of team and multiplication on physical activity coefficient. The decrease of body mass and body mass index were observed in boys with height 195 cm and more to the end of training period. These tall boys did not consume enough food to satisfy the estimated energy requirement. It is estimated that energy need of tall basketball players is no less then 5000 kcal for boys and 3100 kcal for girls.

  5. Theoretical analysis of the distribution of isolated particles in totally asymmetric exclusion processes: Application to mRNA translation rate estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dao Duc, Khanh; Saleem, Zain H.; Song, Yun S.

    2018-01-01

    The Totally Asymmetric Exclusion Process (TASEP) is a classical stochastic model for describing the transport of interacting particles, such as ribosomes moving along the messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) during translation. Although this model has been widely studied in the past, the extent of collision between particles and the average distance between a particle to its nearest neighbor have not been quantified explicitly. We provide here a theoretical analysis of such quantities via the distribution of isolated particles. In the classical form of the model in which each particle occupies only a single site, we obtain an exact analytic solution using the matrix ansatz. We then employ a refined mean-field approach to extend the analysis to a generalized TASEP with particles of an arbitrary size. Our theoretical study has direct applications in mRNA translation and the interpretation of experimental ribosome profiling data. In particular, our analysis of data from Saccharomyces cerevisiae suggests a potential bias against the detection of nearby ribosomes with a gap distance of less than approximately three codons, which leads to some ambiguity in estimating the initiation rate and protein production flux for a substantial fraction of genes. Despite such ambiguity, however, we demonstrate theoretically that the interference rate associated with collisions can be robustly estimated and show that approximately 1% of the translating ribosomes get obstructed.

  6. Determination of total vanadium and vanadium(V) in groundwater from Mt. Etna and estimate of daily intake of vanadium(V) through drinking water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arena, Giovanni; Copat, Chiara; Dimartino, Angela; Grasso, Alfina; Fallico, Roberto; Sciacca, Salvatore; Fiore, Maria; Ferrante, Margherita

    2015-06-01

    Vanadium(V) can be found in natural waters in the form of V(IV) and V(V) species, which have different biological properties and toxicity. The purpose of this study was to determine the concentrations of total V and V(V) in groundwater from the area of Mt. Etna and to assess the estimated daily intake (EDI) of V(V) of adults and children through drinking water. Water was sampled monthly at 21 sites in 2011. Total vanadium was determined by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and speciation by ion chromatography-ICP-MS (IC-ICP-MS). The concentration of V(V) species ranged from 62.8 to 98.9% of total V, with significantly higher concentrations in samples from the S/SW slope of Mt. Etna. The annual mean concentrations of total V exceeded the Italian legal limit of 140 μg/L at four sites on the S/SW slope. In the absence of thresholds for V(V) intake, only the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has calculated a reference dose. Children's EDI of V(V) at the sites with the higher V concentrations exceeded EPA thresholds (9 μg/kg/day). In particular, we found in Camporotondo, Mascalucia, Ragalna and San Pietro Clarenza sites children's EDIs of 11, 9.3, 11 and 9.9, respectively. The EDI of V(V) was significantly higher than the literature range (0.09-0.34 μg/kg/day).

  7. [Noninvasive total hemoglobin monitoring based on multiwave spectrophotometry in obstetrics and gynecology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyregov, A V; Ovechkin, A Iu; Petrov, S V

    2012-01-01

    Results of prospective randomized comparative research of 2 total hemoglobin estimation methods are presented. There were laboratory tests and continuous noninvasive technique with multiwave spectrophotometry on the Masimo Rainbow SET. Research was carried out in two stages. At the 1st stage (gynecology)--67 patients were included and in second stage (obstetrics)--44 patients during and after Cesarean section. The standard deviation of noninvasive total hemoglobin estimation from absolute values (invasive) was 7.2 and 4.1%, an standard deviation in a sample--5.2 and 2.7 % in gynecologic operations and surgical delivery respectively, that confirms lack of reliable indicators differences. The method of continuous noninvasive total hemoglobin estimation with multiwave spectrophotometry on the Masimo Rainbow SET technology can be recommended for use in obstetrics and gynecology.

  8. Estimation of p,p'-DDT degradation in soil by modeling and constraining hydrological and biogeochemical controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanka, Ondrej; Kalina, Jiri; Lin, Yan; Deutscher, Jan; Futter, Martyn; Butterfield, Dan; Melymuk, Lisa; Brabec, Karel; Nizzetto, Luca

    2018-08-01

    Despite not being used for decades in most countries, DDT remains ubiquitous in soils due to its persistence and intense past usage. Because of this it is still a pollutant of high global concern. Assessing long term dissipation of DDT from this reservoir is fundamental to understand future environmental and human exposure. Despite a large research effort, key properties controlling fate in soil (in particular, the degradation half-life (τ soil )) are far from being fully quantified. This paper describes a case study in a large central European catchment where hundreds of measurements of p,p'-DDT concentrations in air, soil, river water and sediment are available for the last two decades. The goal was to deliver an integrated estimation of τ soil by constraining a state-of-the-art hydrobiogeochemical-multimedia fate model of the catchment against the full body of empirical data available for this area. The INCA-Contaminants model was used for this scope. Good predictive performance against an (external) dataset of water and sediment concentrations was achieved with partitioning properties taken from the literature and τ soil estimates obtained from forcing the model against empirical historical data of p,p'-DDT in the catchment multicompartments. This approach allowed estimation of p,p'-DDT degradation in soil after taking adequate consideration of losses due to runoff and volatilization. Estimated τ soil ranged over 3000-3800 days. Degradation was the most important loss process, accounting on a yearly basis for more than 90% of the total dissipation. The total dissipation flux from the catchment soils was one order of magnitude higher than the total current atmospheric input estimated from atmospheric concentrations, suggesting that the bulk of p,p'-DDT currently being remobilized or lost is essentially that accumulated over two decades ago. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. The need for official reserves in Latin America: Assessing the precautionary motive, 1995-2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moritz Cruz

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we estimate the demand for official reserves in Latin America during the period 1995-2011. We assume that the main concern of the monetary authorities to demand reserves is the fear of suffering external drains, and its associated output costs. In other words, we attempt to show that the so-called precautionary motive drives the demand for international reserves in the region. Our econometric results confirm that Latin American countries demand ever increasing amounts of foreign exchange to protect themselves against the likelihood of external drains.

  10. Project schedule and cost estimate report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-03-01

    All cost tables represent obligation dollars, at both a constant FY 1987 level and an estimated escalation level, and are based on the FY 1989 DOE Congressional Budget submittal of December 1987. The cost tables display the total UMTRA Project estimated costs, which include both Federal and state funding. The Total Estimated Cost (TEC) for the UMTRA Project is approximately $992.5 million (in 1987 escalated dollars). Project schedules have been developed that provide for Project completion by September 1994, subject to Congressional approval extending DOE's authorization under Public Law 95-604. The report contains site-specific demographic data, conceptual design assumptions, preliminary cost estimates, and site schedules. A general project overview is also presented, which includes a discussion of the basis for the schedule and cost estimates, contingency assumptions, work breakdown structure, and potential project risks. The schedules and cost estimates will be revised as necessary to reflect appropriate decisions relating to relocation of certain tailings piles, or other special design considerations or circumstances (such as revised EPA groundwater standards), and changes in the Project mission. 27 figs', 97 tabs

  11. Estimation of stature from sternum - Exploring the quadratic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraf, Ashish; Kanchan, Tanuj; Krishan, Kewal; Ateriya, Navneet; Setia, Puneet

    2018-04-14

    Identification of the dead is significant in examination of unknown, decomposed and mutilated human remains. Establishing the biological profile is the central issue in such a scenario, and stature estimation remains one of the important criteria in this regard. The present study was undertaken to estimate stature from different parts of the sternum. A sample of 100 sterna was obtained from individuals during the medicolegal autopsies. Length of the deceased and various measurements of the sternum were measured. Student's t-test was performed to find the sex differences in stature and sternal measurements included in the study. Correlation between stature and sternal measurements were analysed using Karl Pearson's correlation, and linear and quadratic regression models were derived. All the measurements were found to be significantly larger in males than females. Stature correlated best with the combined length of sternum, among males (R = 0.894), females (R = 0.859), and for the total sample (R = 0.891). The study showed that the models derived for stature estimation from combined length of sternum are likely to give the most accurate estimates of stature in forensic case work when compared to manubrium and mesosternum. Accuracy of stature estimation further increased with quadratic models derived for the mesosternum among males and combined length of sternum among males and females when compared to linear regression models. Future studies in different geographical locations and a larger sample size are proposed to confirm the study observations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  12. Estimation of total as well as bioaccessible levels and average daily dietary intake of iodine from Japanese edible seaweeds by epithermal neutron activation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukushima, M.; Chatt, A.

    2012-01-01

    An epi-thermal instrumental neutron activation analysis (EINAA) method in conjunction with Compton suppression spectrometry (EINAA-CSS) was used for the determination of total iodine in eight different species of edible seaweeds from Japan. This method gave an absolute detection limit of about 2 μg. The accuracy of the method was evaluated using various reference materials and found to be generally in agreement within ±6% of the certified values. The longitudinal distributions of iodine at different growing stages in Japanese sea mustard and tangle seaweeds were investigated. For a 150-cm-high tangle, the highest concentration (5,360 mg/kg) of iodine was found at the root, then decreased slowly to 780 mg/kg in the middle portion (60-75 cm), and increased to 2,300 mg/kg at the apex. On the other hand, for a 190-cm-high sea mustard the highest levels of iodine were found both at the roots (164 mg/kg) and apex (152 mg/kg) with lower values (98 mg/kg) in the middle section. In order to estimate the bioaccessible fraction of iodine, seaweeds were digested by an in vitro enzymolysis method, dietary fibre separated from residue, and both fractions analyzed by EINAA-CSS. The average daily dietary intakes of total (0.14 mg) as well as bioaccessible fraction (0.12 mg) of iodine from the consumption of sea mustards were estimated. (author)

  13. Characterization of U. S. energy resources and reserves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1989-12-01

    This report provides a comprehensive overview of the best available estimates of the total domestic energy potential within the United States. The array of energy sources include those appropriate for power generation, liquid fuels, and direct heat applications. The energy sources examined are: geothermal energy, solar energy, biomass energy, wind energy, shale oil, coal, petroleum, natural gas, peat, uranium, and hydropower. 37 refs., 7 figs., 59 tabs.

  14. Net Capital Flows, Macroeconomic Shocks and Reserve Assets. The Case of Argentina (1994-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis N. Lanteri

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available International reserves have been used as a source of protection against the vulnerability of the balance of payments, or alternatively, as an attempt to keep a competitive real exchange rate and to promote exports. This paper explores the correlation between the net capital flows and reserves. Similarly, the impact of some macroeconomic shocks on that variable is assessed. Estimates are carried out through both, the VEC (Vector Error Correction models and quarterly data of the Argentine economy for the period 1994-2013. Results show a negative correlation between international reserves and net capital flows (reserve accumulation through current account surpluses. At the same time, the expansionary fiscal policies and the continuing and widespread price increases would adversely affect the reserves.

  15. Cost estimation tools in Germany and the UK. Comparison of cost estimates and actual costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfeifer, W.; Gordelier, S.; Drake, V.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: Accurate cost estimation for future decommissioning projects is a matter of considerable importance, especially for ensuring that sufficient funds will be available at the time of project implementation. This paper looks at the experience of cost estimation and real implementation outcomes from two countries, Germany and the UK, and draws lessons for the future. In Germany, cost estimates for the decommissioning of power reactors are updated every two years. For this purpose, the STILLKO program of the NIS Company is used. So far, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe has successfully decommissioned two prototype reactor facilities. Re-cultivation of the premises has already been completed. At the moment, the activated components of the multi-purpose research reactor (MZFR), the first pressurized water reactor in Germany that was moderated and cooled with heavy water, and of the prototype fast breeder reactor (KNK) are being dismantled remotely. Consequently, vast experience exists in particular for the updating of total costs on the basis of actually incurred expenses. The further the dismantling work proceeds, the more reliable is the total cost estimate. Here, the development of the estimated MZFR decommissioning costs shall be presented and compared with the estimates obtained for a German reference PWR-type power reactor of 1200 MW. In this way: - common features of the prototype reactor and power reactor shall be emphasized, - several parameters leading to an increase in the estimated costs shall be highlighted, - cost risks shall be outlined with the remote dismantling of the reactor pressure vessel serving as an example, - calculation parameters shall be presented, and - recommendations shall be made for a consistent estimation of costs. The United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) has a major programme for the environmental remediation of its former research and development sites at Dounreay, Windscale, Harwell and Winfrith together with the need to

  16. Replacing reserve requirements

    OpenAIRE

    Edward J. Stevens

    1993-01-01

    An examination of the fading significance of the Federal Reserve System's reserve requirements and the recent flowering of required clearing balances, a rapidly growing feature of Reserve Bank operations.

  17. Optimal offering and allocation policies for wind power in energy and reserve markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soares, Tiago; Jensen, Tue Vissing; Mazzi, Nicolo

    2017-01-01

    Cormick relaxation and piecewise linear decision rules are adapted and tested aiming to maximize the expected revenue for participating in both energy and reserve markets, while accounting for estimated balancing costs for failing to provide energy and reserve. A set of numerical examples, as well as a case study......Proliferation of wind power generation is increasingly making this power source an important asset in designs of energy and reserve markets. Intuitively, wind power producers will require the development of new offering strategies that maximize the expected profit in both energy and reserve markets...... of better forecast information from the different day-ahead and balancing stages, allowing different shares of energy and reserve in both stages. Under these assumptions, different mathematical methods able to deal with the uncertain nature of wind power generation, namely, stochastic programming, with Mc...

  18. 78 FR 61227 - Public Assistance Cost Estimating Format for Large Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-03

    ... equipment. The base cost (construction costs) plus nonconstruction costs equal the total eligible cost... included the estimated base cost plus the estimated nonconstruction costs. Under the traditional method... total cost of completing the project. This ``forward- pricing'' methodology provides an estimate of the...

  19. Near real-time estimation of ionosphere vertical total electron content from GNSS satellites using B-splines in a Kalman filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdogan, Eren; Schmidt, Michael; Seitz, Florian; Durmaz, Murat

    2017-02-01

    Although the number of terrestrial global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers supported by the International GNSS Service (IGS) is rapidly growing, the worldwide rather inhomogeneously distributed observation sites do not allow the generation of high-resolution global ionosphere products. Conversely, with the regionally enormous increase in highly precise GNSS data, the demands on (near) real-time ionosphere products, necessary in many applications such as navigation, are growing very fast. Consequently, many analysis centers accepted the responsibility of generating such products. In this regard, the primary objective of our work is to develop a near real-time processing framework for the estimation of the vertical total electron content (VTEC) of the ionosphere using proper models that are capable of a global representation adapted to the real data distribution. The global VTEC representation developed in this work is based on a series expansion in terms of compactly supported B-spline functions, which allow for an appropriate handling of the heterogeneous data distribution, including data gaps. The corresponding series coefficients and additional parameters such as differential code biases of the GNSS satellites and receivers constitute the set of unknown parameters. The Kalman filter (KF), as a popular recursive estimator, allows processing of the data immediately after acquisition and paves the way of sequential (near) real-time estimation of the unknown parameters. To exploit the advantages of the chosen data representation and the estimation procedure, the B-spline model is incorporated into the KF under the consideration of necessary constraints. Based on a preprocessing strategy, the developed approach utilizes hourly batches of GPS and GLONASS observations provided by the IGS data centers with a latency of 1 h in its current realization. Two methods for validation of the results are performed, namely the self consistency analysis and a comparison

  20. Total 2004 fact book

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    This report presents the activities and results of the Group Total-Fina-Elf for the year 2004. It brings information and economic data on the following topics: the corporate and business; the upstream activities with the reserves, the costs, standardized measure and changes of discounted future net cash flow,oil and gas acreage, drilling, liquefied natural gas, pipelines; downstream activities with refining and marketing maps, refinery, petroleum products, sales, retail gasoline outlets; chemicals with sales and operating income by sector, major applications, base chemicals and polymers, intermediates and performance polymers. (A.L.B.)

  1. Mapping Forest Inventory and Analysis forest land use: timberland, reserved forest land, and other forest land

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark D. Nelson; John Vissage

    2007-01-01

    The Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program produces area estimates of forest land use within three subcategories: timberland, reserved forest land, and other forest land. Mapping these subcategories of forest land requires the ability to spatially distinguish productive from unproductive land, and reserved from nonreserved land. FIA field data were spatially...

  2. Evaluation of Aguas Dulces Black sands reserves, Rocha, Uruguay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrando, L.; Bossi, J.; Maldonado, S.; Schipilov; Campal, N.

    2003-01-01

    Black sands data in Aguas Dulces (Rocha) studied by ANCAP during 60 were reanalyzed with geological criterion in order to redefine the prefactibility of economic explotation with the present infrastructure and world market conditions.The sand deposits is limited between a high slope palaeocost and the ocean, with medium depth of 10m and 2% of useful minerals:ilmenite, rutile, monazite and zircon.Mineral reserves expressed in thousands of tons are of 3 kinds:proved (3.600), probable (5.500) and possible (16.000=.Demonstrated reserves (proved + probable) allow to estimate a value of U$S 650 million, taking in account year 2000 prices. A factory to process about 7 millions ton of raw sand needs an investment of U$S 13 million and will produce a sale of U$S 8 million per year

  3. Hydrobiological investigations of Kytalyk Wildlife Reserve polygonal ponds (North-Eastern Yakutia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nigamatzyanova, G.; Frolova, L.; Pestryakova, L.

    2018-01-01

    In the following article there are introduced the first researching results of 27 water bodies of polygonal tundra in Kytalyk Wildlife Reserve in the summer 2011. The evaluation of physic-hydrochemical indexes of water bodies is given. The basic structure-forming characteristics of zooplankton communities are analyzed. The ecological state of the lakes is estimated.

  4. Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves. Annual report of operations, Fiscal year 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    During fiscal year 1993, the reserves generated $440 million in revenues, a $33 million decrease from the fiscal year 1992 revenues, primarily due to significant decreases in oil and natural gas prices. Total costs were $207 million, resulting in net cash flow of $233 million, compared with $273 million in fiscal year 1992. From 1976 through fiscal year 1993, the Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves generated $15.7 billion in revenues for the US Treasury, with expenses of $2.9 billion. The net revenues of $12.8 billion represent a return on costs of 441 percent. See figures 2, 3, and 4. In fiscal year 1993, production at the Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves at maximum efficient rates yielded 25 million barrels of crude oil, 123 billion cubic feet of natural gas, and 158 million gallons of natural gas liquids. The Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves has embarked on an effort to identify additional hydrocarbon resources on the reserves for future production. In 1993, in cooperation with the US Geological Survey, the Department initiated a project to assess the oil and gas potential of the program's oil shale reserves, which remain largely unexplored. These reserves, which total a land area of more than 145,000 acres and are located in Colorado and Utah, are favorably situated in oil and gas producing regions and are likely to contain significant hydrocarbon deposits. Alternatively the producing assets may be sold or leased if that will produce the most value. This task will continue through the first quarter of fiscal year 1994

  5. In vitro starch hydrolysis and estimated glycemic index of tef porridge and injera.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shumoy, Habtu; Raes, Katleen

    2017-08-15

    The aim of this study was to investigate the in vitro starch digestibility of injera and porridge from seven tef varieties and to estimate their glycemic index. The total starch, free glucose, apparent amylose, resistant, slowly digestible and rapidly digestible starches of the varieties ranged between 66 and 76, 1.8 and 2.4g/100g flour dry matter (DM), 29 and 31%, 17 and 68, 19 and 53, 12 and 30g/100g starch DM, respectively. After processing into injera and porridge, the rapidly digestible starch content increased by 60-85% and 3-69%, respectively. The estimated glycemic index of porridge and injera of the varieties ranged 79-99 and 94-137 when estimated based on model of Goni et al. (1997) whereas from 69 to 100 and 94 to 161, respectively based on Granfeldtet al. (1992). Tef porridge and injera samples studied here can be classified as medium- high GI foods, not to be considered as a proper food ingredient for diabetic people and patients in weight gain control. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. 12 CFR Appendix M1 to Part 226 - Generic Repayment Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Generic Repayment Estimates M1 Appendix M1 to Part 226 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM (CONTINUED) BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE... rounded down to the nearest whole year if the estimate contains a fractional year less than 0.5, and...

  7. Accounting for uncertainty in marine reserve design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halpern, Benjamin S; Regan, Helen M; Possingham, Hugh P; McCarthy, Michael A

    2006-01-01

    Ecosystems and the species and communities within them are highly complex systems that defy predictions with any degree of certainty. Managing and conserving these systems in the face of uncertainty remains a daunting challenge, particularly with respect to developing networks of marine reserves. Here we review several modelling frameworks that explicitly acknowledge and incorporate uncertainty, and then use these methods to evaluate reserve spacing rules given increasing levels of uncertainty about larval dispersal distances. Our approach finds similar spacing rules as have been proposed elsewhere - roughly 20-200 km - but highlights several advantages provided by uncertainty modelling over more traditional approaches to developing these estimates. In particular, we argue that uncertainty modelling can allow for (1) an evaluation of the risk associated with any decision based on the assumed uncertainty; (2) a method for quantifying the costs and benefits of reducing uncertainty; and (3) a useful tool for communicating to stakeholders the challenges in managing highly uncertain systems. We also argue that incorporating rather than avoiding uncertainty will increase the chances of successfully achieving conservation and management goals.

  8. Highlights of TOMS Version 9 Total Ozone Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhartia, Pawan; Haffner, David

    2012-01-01

    The fundamental basis of TOMS total ozone algorithm was developed some 45 years ago by Dave and Mateer. It was designed to estimate total ozone from satellite measurements of the backscattered UV radiances at few discrete wavelengths in the Huggins ozone absorption band (310-340 nm). Over the years, as the need for higher accuracy in measuring total ozone from space has increased, several improvements to the basic algorithms have been made. They include: better correction for the effects of aerosols and clouds, an improved method to account for the variation in shape of ozone profiles with season, latitude, and total ozone, and a multi-wavelength correction for remaining profile shape errors. These improvements have made it possible to retrieve total ozone with just 3 spectral channels of moderate spectral resolution (approx. 1 nm) with accuracy comparable to state-of-the-art spectral fitting algorithms like DOAS that require high spectral resolution measurements at large number of wavelengths. One of the deficiencies of the TOMS algorithm has been that it doesn't provide an error estimate. This is a particular problem in high latitudes when the profile shape errors become significant and vary with latitude, season, total ozone, and instrument viewing geometry. The primary objective of the TOMS V9 algorithm is to account for these effects in estimating the error bars. This is done by a straightforward implementation of the Rodgers optimum estimation method using a priori ozone profiles and their error covariances matrices constructed using Aura MLS and ozonesonde data. The algorithm produces a vertical ozone profile that contains 1-2.5 pieces of information (degrees of freedom of signal) depending upon solar zenith angle (SZA). The profile is integrated to obtain the total column. We provide information that shows the altitude range in which the profile is best determined by the measurements. One can use this information in data assimilation and analysis. A side

  9. Prevalence and risk factors for postoperative delirium in total joint arthroplasty patients: A prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wenliang; Ke, Xiurong; Wang, Xiaoqing; Sun, Xiaoliang; Wang, Juncheng; Yang, Guojing; Xia, Haijie; Zhang, Lei

    2017-05-01

    The aim of this prospective study was to investigate the incidence and clinical features of delirium after total joint arthroplasty, and to establish the potential risk factors for postoperative delirium. A total of 212 consecutive patients undergoing hip or knee arthroplasty, who met the inclusion and exclusive criteria were enrolled. The general characteristics, preoperative and postoperative hematological variables were documented respectively. According to the presence of delirium, all patients were divided into the delirium group and non-delirium group. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were performed to identify the possible predictors for postoperative delirium. At a minimum of 6months of follow-up, 35 patients were observed with postoperative delirium at an estimated total incidence of 16.5%. The incidence of delirium was statistically higher in hip arthroplasty (22.8%) than that in knee arthroplasty (7.1%). The multivariate regression analysis identified older age (OR=1.590, P=0.023), a history of stroke (OR=190.23, P=0.036), preoperative PaO 2 (OR=1.277, P=0.018) and equivalent fentanyl dose (OR=1.010, P=0.012) as the predictive factors for postoperative delirium after total joint arthroplasty. The incidence of postoperative delirium after total joint arthroplasty is higher than expected. Based on our findings, we suggest that the surgeons should focus on those patients who have these risk factors and ensure the appropriate management to avoid postoperative delirium. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Stereological estimation of total cell numbers in the human cerebral and cerebellar cortex

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walløe, Solveig; Pakkenberg, Bente; Fabricius, Katrine

    2014-01-01

    estimates and were often very time-consuming. Within the last 20-30 years, it has become possible to rely on more advanced and unbiased methods. These methods have provided us with information about fetal brain development, differences in cell numbers between men and women, the effect of age on selected...

  11. Cultural Changes Required in the Army to Truly Achieve a Total Force

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-16

    tailored to achieve anticipated objectives.”1 Honorable John M. McHugh , Secretary of the Army Army Directive 2012-08 (Army Total Force Policy...United States Soldier. 16 End Notes 1 McHugh , John M. “Army Directive 2012-08 (Army Total Force Policy).” Secretary of the Army, September 4...1 (February 2006): 40–42. McCullough, Amy. “Out of Reserve (Air Force Reserve Command)” 94, no. 12 (2011): 40. McHugh , John M. “Army Directive 2012

  12. Compressed nature : co-existing grazers in a small reserve in Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mwasi, S.M.

    2002-01-01

    Wildlife habitats in Kenya are getting more fragmented and isolated due to increasing human activities within them. This has resulted in the establishment of several small nature reserves where wildlife is protected from human interference. Grazers contribute a large proportion of total

  13. Estimating Inorganic Arsenic Exposure from U.S. Rice and Total Water Intakes

    OpenAIRE

    Mantha, Madhavi; Yeary, Edward; Trent, John; Creed, Patricia A.; Kubachka, Kevin; Hanley, Traci; Shockey, Nohora; Heitkemper, Douglas; Caruso, Joseph; Xue, Jianping; Rice, Glenn; Wymer, Larry; Creed, John T.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Among nonoccupationally exposed U.S. residents, drinking water and diet are considered primary exposure pathways for inorganic arsenic (iAs). In drinking water, iAs is the primary form of arsenic (As), while dietary As speciation techniques are used to differentiate iAs from less toxic arsenicals in food matrices. Objectives: Our goal was to estimate the distribution of iAs exposure rates from drinking water intakes and rice consumption in the U.S. population and ethnic- and age-b...

  14. Larval export from marine reserves and the recruitment benefit for fish and fisheries

    KAUST Repository

    Harrison, Hugo B.; Williamson, David H.; Evans, Richard D.; Almany, Glenn R.; Thorrold, Simon R.; Russ, Garry Ronald; Feldheim, Kevin Andrew; Van Herwerden, Lynne Van; Planes, Serge; Srinivasan, Maya; Berumen, Michael L.; Jones, Geoffrey P.

    2012-01-01

    Marine reserves, areas closed to all forms of fishing, continue to be advocated and implemented to supplement fisheries and conserve populations [1-4]. However, although the reproductive potential of important fishery species can dramatically increase inside reserves [5-8], the extent to which larval offspring are exported and the relative contribution of reserves to recruitment in fished and protected populations are unknown [4, 9-11]. Using genetic parentage analyses, we resolve patterns of larval dispersal for two species of exploited coral reef fish within a network of marine reserves on the Great Barrier Reef. In a 1,000 km 2 study area, populations resident in three reserves exported 83% (coral trout, Plectropomus maculatus) and 55% (stripey snapper, Lutjanus carponotatus) of assigned offspring to fished reefs, with the remainder having recruited to natal reserves or other reserves in the region. We estimate that reserves, which account for just 28% of the local reef area, produced approximately half of all juvenile recruitment to both reserve and fished reefs within 30 km. Our results provide compelling evidence that adequately protected reserve networks can make a significant contribution to the replenishment of populations on both reserve and fished reefs at a scale that benefits local stakeholders. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

  15. Larval export from marine reserves and the recruitment benefit for fish and fisheries

    KAUST Repository

    Harrison, Hugo B.

    2012-06-01

    Marine reserves, areas closed to all forms of fishing, continue to be advocated and implemented to supplement fisheries and conserve populations [1-4]. However, although the reproductive potential of important fishery species can dramatically increase inside reserves [5-8], the extent to which larval offspring are exported and the relative contribution of reserves to recruitment in fished and protected populations are unknown [4, 9-11]. Using genetic parentage analyses, we resolve patterns of larval dispersal for two species of exploited coral reef fish within a network of marine reserves on the Great Barrier Reef. In a 1,000 km 2 study area, populations resident in three reserves exported 83% (coral trout, Plectropomus maculatus) and 55% (stripey snapper, Lutjanus carponotatus) of assigned offspring to fished reefs, with the remainder having recruited to natal reserves or other reserves in the region. We estimate that reserves, which account for just 28% of the local reef area, produced approximately half of all juvenile recruitment to both reserve and fished reefs within 30 km. Our results provide compelling evidence that adequately protected reserve networks can make a significant contribution to the replenishment of populations on both reserve and fished reefs at a scale that benefits local stakeholders. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

  16. Estimates of Uncertainty around the RBA's Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Tulip; Stephanie Wallace

    2012-01-01

    We use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals and other estimates of uncertainty around the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecasts of key macroeconomic variables. Our estimates suggest that uncertainty about forecasts is high. We find that the RBA's forecasts have substantial explanatory power for the inflation rate but not for GDP growth.

  17. A New Estimate for Total Offset on the Southern San Andreas Fault: Implications for Cumulative Plate Boundary Shear in the Northern Gulf of California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darin, M. H.; Dorsey, R. J.

    2012-12-01

    Development of a consistent and balanced tectonic reconstruction for the late Cenozoic San Andreas fault (SAF) in southern California has been hindered for decades by incompatible estimates of total dextral offset based on different geologic cross-fault markers. The older estimate of 240-270 km is based on offset fluvial conglomerates of the middle Miocene Mint Canyon and Caliente Formations west of the SAF from their presumed source area in the northern Chocolate Mountains NE of the SAF (Ehlig et al., 1975; Ehlert, 2003). The second widely cited offset marker is a distinctive Triassic megaporphyritic monzogranite that has been offset 160 ± 10 km between Liebre Mountain west of the SAF and the San Bernadino Mountains (Matti and Morton, 1993). In this analysis we use existing paleocurrent data and late Miocene clockwise rotation in the eastern Transverse Ranges (ETR) to re-assess the orientation of the piercing line used in the 240 km-correlation, and present a palinspastic reconstruction that satisfies all existing geologic constraints. Our reconstruction of the Mint Canyon piercing line reduces the original estimate of 240-270 km to 195 ± 15 km of cumulative right-lateral slip on the southern SAF (sensu stricto), which is consistent with other published estimates of 185 ± 20 km based on correlative basement terranes in the Salton Trough region. Our estimate of ~195 km is consistent with the lower estimate of ~160 km on the Mojave segment because transform-parallel extension along the southwestern boundary of the ETR during transrotation produces ~25-40 km of displacement that does not affect offset markers of the Liebre/San Bernadino correlation located northwest of the ETR rotating domain. Reconciliation of these disparate estimates places an important new constraint on the total plate boundary shear that is likely accommodated in the adjacent northern Gulf of California. Global plate circuit models require ~650 km of cumulative Pacific-North America (PAC

  18. Social cognition is not associated with cognitive reserve in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavrencic, Louise M; Kurylowicz, Lisa; Valenzuela, Michael J; Churches, Owen F; Keage, Hannah A D

    2016-01-01

    Social and general cognitive abilities decline in late life. Those with high cognitive reserve display better general cognitive performance in old age; however, it is unknown whether this is also the case for social cognition. A total of 115 healthy older adults, aged 60-85 years (m = 44, f = 71) were assessed using The Awareness of Social Inference Test (TASIT-R; social cognition), the Lifetime of Experiences Questionnaire (LEQ; cognitive reserve), and the Wechsler Abbreviated Scale of Intelligence (WASI-II; general cognitive ability). The LEQ did not predict performance on any TASIT-R subtest: Emotion Evaluation Test (β = -.097, p = .325), Social Inference - Minimal (β = -.004, p = .972), or Social Inference - Enriched (β = -.016, p = .878). Sensitivity analyses using two alternative cognitive reserve measures, years of education and the National Adult Reading Test, supported these effects. Cognitive reserve was strongly related to WASI-II performance. Unlike general cognitive ability, social cognition appears unaffected by cognitive reserve. Findings contribute to the emerging understanding that cognitive reserve differentially affects individual cognitive domains, which has implications for the theoretical understanding of cognitive reserve and its brain correlates. Cognitive measures unbiased by cognitive reserve may serve as best indicators of brain health, free of compensatory mechanisms.

  19. Surgical waste audit of 5 total knee arthroplasties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stall, Nathan M; Kagoma, Yoan M; Bondy, Jennifer N; Naudie, Douglas

    2013-04-01

    Operating rooms (ORs) are estimated to generate up to one-third of hospital waste. At the London Health Sciences Centre, prosthetics and implants represent 17% of the institution's ecological footprint. To investigate waste production associated with total knee arthroplasties (TKAs), we performed a surgical waste audit to gauge the environmental impact of this procedure and generate strategies to improve waste management. We conducted a waste audit of 5 primary TKAs performed by a single surgeon in February 2010. Waste was categorized into 6 streams: regular solid waste, recyclable plastics, biohazard waste, laundered linens, sharps and blue sterile wrap. Volume and weight of each stream was quantified. We used Canadian Joint Replacement Registry data (2008-2009) to estimate annual weight and volume totals of waste from all TKAs performed in Canada. The average surgical waste (excluding laundered linens) per TKA was 13.3 kg, of which 8.6 kg (64.5%) was normal solid waste, 2.5 kg (19.2%) was biohazard waste, 1.6 kg (12.1%) was blue sterile wrap, 0.3 kg (2.2%) was recyclables and 0.3 kg (2.2%) was sharps. Plastic wrappers, disposable surgical linens and personal protective equipment contributed considerably to total waste. We estimated that landfill waste from all 47 429 TKAs performed in Canada in 2008-2009 was 407 889 kg by weight and 15 272 m3 by volume. Total knee arthroplasties produce substantial amounts of surgical waste. Environmentally friendly surgical products and waste management strategies may allow ORs to reduce the negative impacts of waste production without compromising patient care. Level IV, case series.

  20. Estimate of total CO2 output from desertified sandy land in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan Zhenghu; Lanzhou University; Xiao Honglang; Dong Zhibao; He Xingdong; Wang Gang

    2001-01-01

    Soil is an important factor in regional and global carbon budgets because it serves as a reservoir of large amount of organic carbon. In our study, using remote sensing data of different periods we analyzed the development and reversion of desertification in China, calculated the variations of organic carbon contents of the desertified lands in China. The results showed that the total storage of organic carbon in 0-50cm soil layer of the desertified lands is 855Mt. In recent 40yr, the total CO 2 amount released by land desertification processes to the atmosphere was 150Mt, while the CO 2 amount sequestered by desertification reversing processes corresponded to 59MtC. Hence, the net CO 2 amount released from desertified lands of China corresponded to 91MtC, about 68.42% of the 133MtC of annual CO 2 release in the global temperate and frigid zones. Simultaneously, it indicated that CO 2 amount sequestered by desertification reversing processes in desertified land had greater potential than the other soils. (Author)

  1. Magnetic resonance measurement of turbulent kinetic energy for the estimation of irreversible pressure loss in aortic stenosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyverfeldt, Petter; Hope, Michael D; Tseng, Elaine E; Saloner, David

    2013-01-01

    The authors sought to measure the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) in the ascending aorta of patients with aortic stenosis and to assess its relationship to irreversible pressure loss. Irreversible pressure loss caused by energy dissipation in post-stenotic flow is an important determinant of the hemodynamic significance of aortic stenosis. The simplified Bernoulli equation used to estimate pressure gradients often misclassifies the ventricular overload caused by aortic stenosis. The current gold standard for estimation of irreversible pressure loss is catheterization, but this method is rarely used due to its invasiveness. Post-stenotic pressure loss is largely caused by dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy into heat. Recent developments in magnetic resonance flow imaging permit noninvasive estimation of TKE. The study was approved by the local ethics review board and all subjects gave written informed consent. Three-dimensional cine magnetic resonance flow imaging was used to measure TKE in 18 subjects (4 normal volunteers, 14 patients with aortic stenosis with and without dilation). For each subject, the peak total TKE in the ascending aorta was compared with a pressure loss index. The pressure loss index was based on a previously validated theory relating pressure loss to measures obtainable by echocardiography. The total TKE did not appear to be related to global flow patterns visualized based on magnetic resonance-measured velocity fields. The TKE was significantly higher in patients with aortic stenosis than in normal volunteers (p < 0.001). The peak total TKE in the ascending aorta was strongly correlated to index pressure loss (R(2) = 0.91). Peak total TKE in the ascending aorta correlated strongly with irreversible pressure loss estimated by a well-established method. Direct measurement of TKE by magnetic resonance flow imaging may, with further validation, be used to estimate irreversible pressure loss in aortic stenosis. Copyright © 2013 American

  2. A longitudinal study of quality of life and functional status in total hip and total knee replacement patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandzuk, Lynda L; McMillan, Diana E; Bohm, Eric R

    2015-05-01

    Primary total hip and primary total knee surgeries are commonly performed to improve patients' quality of life and functional status. This longitudinal retrospective study (N = 851) examined self-reported quality of life and functional status over the preoperative and postoperative periods: 12 months prior to surgery, one month prior to surgery and 12 months following surgery. A linear mixed effects model was used to analyze the changes in quality of life and functional status over the sampling period. Patients in the convenience sample reported improvements in quality of life and functional status utilizing the SF-12 and Oxford Hip and Oxford Knee, although differences were noted by procedure and gender. Total hip patients tended to demonstrate greater improvement than total knee patients and males reported higher levels of physical and mental quality of life as well as functional status when compared to females. Of particular note was that mental health scores were consistently lower in both total hip and total knee replacement patients across the perioperative period and up to one year postoperative. This study identifies an opportunity for health care providers to proactively address the mental health of total hip and total knee replacement patients throughout their joint replacement trajectory. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Estimation of salivary flow rate, pH, buffer capacity, calcium, total protein content and total antioxidant capacity in relation to dental caries severity, age and gender.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Pallavi; Reddy, N Venugopal; Rao, V Arun Prasad; Saxena, Aditya; Chaudhary, C P

    2015-03-01

    The aim of the study was to evaluate salivary flow rate, pH, buffering capacity, calcium, total protein content and total antioxidant capacity in relation to dental caries, age and gender. The study population consisted of 120 healthy children aged 7-15 years that was further divided into two groups: 7-10 years and 11-15 years. In this 60 children with DMFS/dfs = 0 and 60 children with DMFS/dfs ≥5 were included. The subjects were divided into two groups; Group A: Children with DMFS/dfs = 0 (caries-free) Group B: Children with DMFS/dfs ≥5 (caries active). Unstimulated saliva samples were collected from all groups. Flow rates were determined, and samples analyzed for pH, buffer capacity, calcium, total protein and total antioxidant status. Salivary antioxidant activity is measured with spectrophotometer by an adaptation of 2,2'-azino-di-(3-ethylbenzthiazoline-6-sulphonate) assays. The mean difference of the two groups; caries-free and caries active were proved to be statistically significant (P salivary calcium, total protein and total antioxidant level for both the sexes in the age group 7-10 years and for the age 11-15 years the mean difference of the two groups were proved to be statistically significant (P salivary calcium level for both the sexes. Salivary total protein and total antioxidant level were proved to be statistically significant for male children only. In general, total protein and total antioxidants in saliva were increased with caries activity. Calcium content of saliva was found to be more in caries-free group and increased with age.

  4. Water requirement and total body water estimation as affected by species, pregnancy and lactation using tritiated water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamal, T.H.; El Banna, I.M.; Ayad, M.A.; Kotby, E.A.

    1978-01-01

    Radiotracer dilution technique was used to determine total body water (TBW) and the water turnover rate (WTR) estimate of water requirements in water buffaloe, Red Dannish cattle, fat tailed Osemi sheep and Camellus Dromedarius. Water buffaloes were found to have highest TBW, followed by camels, sheep and cattle in a descending order. The WTR ranking was highest for sheep followed by water buffaloe endurance to heat was found inseperable to high water usage, while in camels, an intericate water retention mechanism help animals to thrive in deserts. Fat tailled Osemi sheep and cattle failed to cope with high environmental temperature resulting in temporary dehydration. TBW was 17% and 6% higher in pregnant cattle and sheep than non-pregnant animals respectively, while there was no observed change in pregnant buffaloes. Water retention of pregnant cattle was associated with an appriciable increase in WTR, which was not noticable in buffaloe or sheep. Lactating buffaloe have had a higher TBW and WTR than lactating cattle. Milk yield per day during the period of measurement was higher in buffalo than cattle. Wallowing of buffalo in water pools during grazing, represents a behavioural adaptation for life in hot regions, aside of tendency for higher WTR with concomitant water retention

  5. Original Article Blood Loss and Influencing Factors in Primary Total ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    KIGZ

    aid the surgeon in the African region estimate the expected blood loss after total hip replacement. We conducted a study to quantify the blood loss following total hip arthroplasty and to determine the factors .... Hemoglobin European Overview (OSTHEO) study: blood management in elective knee and hip arthroplasty in ...

  6. Pricing the Ramping Reserve and Capacity Reserve in Real Time Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Ye, Hongxing; Li, Zuyi

    2015-01-01

    The increasing penetration of renewable energy in recent years has led to more uncertainties in power systems. In order to maintain system reliability and security, electricity market operators need to keep certain reserves in the Security-Constrained Economic Dispatch (SCED) problems. A new concept, deliverable generation ramping reserve, is proposed in this paper. The prices of generation ramping reserves and generation capacity reserves are derived in the Affine Adjustable Robust Optimizat...

  7. Operational Reservations: Considerations for a Total Army Force

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    individually proficient. To answer some of the questions about the viabil- ity of a 5-year training cycle for RC units, Major Gen- eral Tim Orr, the Adjutant...resident school). 85. “Structured Self-Development,” Ft. Bliss , TX: U.S. Army Sergeants Major Academy, available from https://usasma.bliss. army.mil

  8. Spot Urine Protein-to-Creatinine Ratio to Predict the Magnitude of 24-Hour Total Proteinuria in Preeclampsia of Varying Severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucukgoz Gulec, Umran; Sucu, Mete; Ozgunen, Fatma Tuncay; Buyukkurt, Selim; Guzel, Ahmet Baris; Paydas, Saime

    2017-10-01

    The predictive value of spot urine protein-to-creatinine ratio (PCR) for estimating total 24-hour proteinuria in severe preeclampsia is unclear. This study aimed to assess the diagnostic accuracy of spot urine PCR for ascertaining the magnitude of proteinuria in women with preeclampsia of varying severity. A total of 205 patients with prediagnosed preeclampsia were included in this prospective cohort study. Patients were allocated into one of the three groups categorized by severity of disease, as follows: gestational hypertension, group 1 (n = 41); preeclampsia, group 2 (n = 88); and severe preeclampsia, group 3 (n = 76). We assessed the spot urine PCRs to determine significant proteinuria and the magnitude of proteinuria in these groups. The spot urine PCR was 0.53, with 81% sensitivity and 93% specificity to detect significant proteinuria. A significant correlation was found between PCR and 24-hour total proteinuria in group 1 (r = 0.473, P = 0.002). There were also significant correlations in group 2 (r = 0.814, P spot urine PCR to estimate 24-hour total proteinuria in severe preeclampsia was Y = 832.02X + 378.74 mg (r 2  = 0.8304). Although 24-hour urine collection remains a merely reliable test to determine the degree of total proteinuria, our findings suggest that it is likely to assess the magnitude of proteinuria by the spot urine PCR, especially in severe preeclampsia. www.clinicaltrials.govNCT01623791. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists of Canada/La Société des obstétriciens et gynécologues du Canada. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. White Blood Cell Count and Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in the Women's Health Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabat, Geoffrey C; Kim, Mimi Y; Manson, JoAnn E; Lessin, Lawrence; Lin, Juan; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Rohan, Thomas E

    2017-07-01

    White blood cell (WBC) count appears to predict total mortality and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, but it is unclear to what extent the association reflects confounding by smoking, underlying illness, or comorbid conditions. We used data from the Women's Health Initiative to examine the associations of WBC count with total mortality, CHD mortality, and cancer mortality. WBC count was measured at baseline in 160,117 postmenopausal women and again in year 3 in 74,375 participants. Participants were followed for a mean of 16 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the relative mortality hazards associated with deciles of baseline WBC count and of the mean of baseline + year 3 WBC count. High deciles of both baseline and mean WBC count were positively associated with total mortality and CHD mortality, whereas the association with cancer mortality was weaker. The association of WBC count with mortality was independent of smoking and did not appear to be influenced by previous disease history. The potential clinical utility of this common laboratory test in predicting mortality risk warrants further study. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Use and Limitations of the Reserve Requirement Policy in Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milošević Velibor

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Since reserve requirement is the only monetary policy instrument used in Montenegro, it has been subject to frequent amendments since the global crisis outbreak. The analysis of the monetary demand model showed that there is an active transmission mechanism of change in the reserve requirement rate on the deposits trend reflects on lending activity. Also, there is a significant impact of FDIs on deposits trending in the banking system, as well as the positive impact of turnover on stock exchange on the deposits and loans trend. Finally, it was found that the financial crisis has caused negative trends in loans and deposits. On the other hand, the impact of changes in the reserve requirement on the economic activity in Montenegro could not be determined. This is primarily due to the fact that the transmission mechanism of the effect of reserve requirement on economic activity is too long to be able to estimate the model that does not allow the dynamics of the independent variables. The second reason is that industrial output index is only an indirect indicator of the economic activity.

  11. Estimating the Prevalence of Toxic Waste Sites in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowling, Russell; Caravanos, Jack; Grigsby, Patrick; Rivera, Anthony; Ericson, Bret; Amoyaw-Osei, Yaw; Akuffo, Bennett; Fuller, Richard

    then allocated these sites to each region. Both methods used cluster random sampling principles. The investigators identified 72 sites in the sampled quadrats. Extrapolating from these findings to the entire country, the first methodology estimated that there are 1561 sites contaminated by heavy metals in Ghana (confidence interval [CI]: 1134-1987), whereas the second estimated 1944 sites (CI: 812-3075). The estimated total number of contaminated sites in Ghana is thus 7-9 times the number of sites captured through TSIP. On a population basis, it was estimated that there are between 31 and 115 contaminated sites per million inhabitants in Ghana. The findings of this study indicate that the TSIP methodology provides a sound statistical basis for policy formulation. The statistical approaches used in this study can be replicated in other countries to improve estimates of the prevalence of contaminated sites. This information provides important input to calculations of the global burden of disease attributable to hazardous exposures at contaminated sites. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Estimation model for evaporative emissions from gasoline vehicles based on thermodynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hata, Hiroo; Yamada, Hiroyuki; Kokuryo, Kazuo; Okada, Megumi; Funakubo, Chikage; Tonokura, Kenichi

    2018-03-15

    In this study, we conducted seven-day diurnal breathing loss (DBL) tests on gasoline vehicles. We propose a model based on the theory of thermodynamics that can represent the experimental results of the current and previous studies. The experiments were performed using 14 physical parameters to determine the dependence of total emissions on temperature, fuel tank fill, and fuel vapor pressure. In most cases, total emissions after an apparent breakthrough were proportional to the difference between minimum and maximum environmental temperatures during the day, fuel tank empty space, and fuel vapor pressure. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were measured using a Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometer and Flame Ionization Detector (GC-MS/FID) to determine the Ozone Formation Potential (OFP) of after-breakthrough gas emitted to the atmosphere. Using the experimental results, we constructed a thermodynamic model for estimating the amount of evaporative emissions after a fully saturated canister breakthrough occurred, and a comparison between the thermodynamic model and previous models was made. Finally, the total annual evaporative emissions and OFP in Japan were determined and compared by each model. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Mineral Resources: Reserves, Peak Production and the Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence D. Meinert

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The adequacy of mineral resources in light of population growth and rising standards of living has been a concern since the time of Malthus (1798, but many studies erroneously forecast impending peak production or exhaustion because they confuse reserves with “all there is”. Reserves are formally defined as a subset of resources, and even current and potential resources are only a small subset of “all there is”. Peak production or exhaustion cannot be modeled accurately from reserves. Using copper as an example, identified resources are twice as large as the amount projected to be needed through 2050. Estimates of yet-to-be discovered copper resources are up to 40-times more than currently-identified resources, amounts that could last for many centuries. Thus, forecasts of imminent peak production due to resource exhaustion in the next 20–30 years are not valid. Short-term supply problems may arise, however, and supply-chain disruptions are possible at any time due to natural disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes or political complications. Needed to resolve these problems are education and exploration technology development, access to prospective terrain, better recycling and better accounting of externalities associated with production (pollution, loss of ecosystem services and water and energy use.

  14. Mapping Habitats and Developing Baselines in Offshore Marine Reserves with Little Prior Knowledge: A Critical Evaluation of a New Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma Lawrence

    Full Text Available The recently declared Australian Commonwealth Marine Reserve (CMR Network covers a total of 3.1 million km2 of continental shelf, slope, and abyssal habitat. Managing and conserving the biodiversity values within this network requires knowledge of the physical and biological assets that lie within its boundaries. Unfortunately very little is known about the habitats and biological assemblages of the continental shelf within the network, where diversity is richest and anthropogenic pressures are greatest. Effective management of the CMR estate into the future requires this knowledge gap to be filled efficiently and quantitatively. The challenge is particularly great for the shelf as multibeam echosounder (MBES mapping, a key tool for identifying and quantifying habitat distribution, is time consuming in shallow depths, so full coverage mapping of the CMR shelf assets is unrealistic in the medium-term. Here we report on the results of a study undertaken in the Flinders Commonwealth Marine Reserve (southeast Australia designed to test the benefits of two approaches to characterising shelf habitats: (i MBES mapping of a continuous (~30 km2 area selected on the basis of its potential to include a range of seabed habitats that are potentially representative of the wider area, versus; (ii a novel approach that uses targeted mapping of a greater number of smaller, but spatially balanced, locations using a Generalized Random Tessellation Stratified sample design. We present the first quantitative estimates of habitat type and sessile biological communities on the shelf of the Flinders reserve, the former based on three MBES analysis techniques. We contrast the quality of information that both survey approaches offer in combination with the three MBES analysis methods. The GRTS approach enables design based estimates of habitat types and sessile communities and also identifies potential biodiversity hotspots in the northwest corner of the reserve's IUCN

  15. Mapping Habitats and Developing Baselines in Offshore Marine Reserves with Little Prior Knowledge: A Critical Evaluation of a New Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Emma; Hayes, Keith R; Lucieer, Vanessa L; Nichol, Scott L; Dambacher, Jeffrey M; Hill, Nicole A; Barrett, Neville; Kool, Johnathan; Siwabessy, Justy

    2015-01-01

    The recently declared Australian Commonwealth Marine Reserve (CMR) Network covers a total of 3.1 million km2 of continental shelf, slope, and abyssal habitat. Managing and conserving the biodiversity values within this network requires knowledge of the physical and biological assets that lie within its boundaries. Unfortunately very little is known about the habitats and biological assemblages of the continental shelf within the network, where diversity is richest and anthropogenic pressures are greatest. Effective management of the CMR estate into the future requires this knowledge gap to be filled efficiently and quantitatively. The challenge is particularly great for the shelf as multibeam echosounder (MBES) mapping, a key tool for identifying and quantifying habitat distribution, is time consuming in shallow depths, so full coverage mapping of the CMR shelf assets is unrealistic in the medium-term. Here we report on the results of a study undertaken in the Flinders Commonwealth Marine Reserve (southeast Australia) designed to test the benefits of two approaches to characterising shelf habitats: (i) MBES mapping of a continuous (~30 km2) area selected on the basis of its potential to include a range of seabed habitats that are potentially representative of the wider area, versus; (ii) a novel approach that uses targeted mapping of a greater number of smaller, but spatially balanced, locations using a Generalized Random Tessellation Stratified sample design. We present the first quantitative estimates of habitat type and sessile biological communities on the shelf of the Flinders reserve, the former based on three MBES analysis techniques. We contrast the quality of information that both survey approaches offer in combination with the three MBES analysis methods. The GRTS approach enables design based estimates of habitat types and sessile communities and also identifies potential biodiversity hotspots in the northwest corner of the reserve's IUCN zone IV, and in

  16. Estimating concentrations of fine-grained and total suspended sediment from close-range remote sensing imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosbrucker, Adam; Spicer, Kurt R.; Christianson, Tami; Uhrich, Mark A.

    2015-01-01

    data range among sensors. Of greatest interest to many programs is a hysteresis in the relationship between turbidity and SSC, attributed to temporal variation of particle size distribution (Landers and Sturm, 2013; Uhrich et al., 2014). This phenomenon causes increased uncertainty in regression-estimated values of SSC, due to changes in nephelometric reflectance off the varying grain sizes in suspension (Uhrich et al., 2014). Here, we assess the feasibility and application of close-range remote sensing to quantify SSC and particle size distribution of a disturbed, and highly-turbid, river system. We use a consumer-grade digital camera to acquire imagery of the river surface and a depth-integrating sampler to collect concurrent suspended-sediment samples. We then develop two empirical linear regression models to relate image spectral information to concentrations of fine sediment (clay to silt) and total suspended sediment. Before presenting our regression model development, we briefly summarize each data-acquisition method.

  17. Buying versus exploring for reserves in the Canadian oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sayer, F.

    1992-01-01

    The issue of a business strategy for Canadian oil companies focussed on either buying reserves or on exploration is examined. A measurement of the amount of merger and acquisition (M ampersand A) transactions vs the amount of exploration activity shows that the number of M ampersand A transactions has risen from 262 in 1989 to an estimated 1,500 in 1992. This sales activity has partly resulted from major companies selling assets to pay down debt. In the same period, the number of licensed exploration wells has decreased from 2,800 to 1,500. An analysis of statistics on the costs of acquisitions vs cost of finding and development shows acquisitions costs are lower in all cases. In addition, the median acquisition price has been falling steadily. Buying reserves has other advantages, including the fact that reserves can be added more quickly, lower risk, and readily available financing. Exploration, however, has its advantages, including the potential for very large reserve additions, higher tax deductions and incentives available, less competition from the industry, and low input costs. The acquisition vs exploration strategies are illustrated using the stock performance of two companies. If the acquisitions trend continues, there will be increases in the profitability of existing reserves, the number of companies, and tax receipts, However, in the long term there will be a drop in Canadian reserves and a significant reduction in the size of the industry. 14 figs., 2 tabs

  18. Non-Destructive, Laser-Based Individual Tree Aboveground Biomass Estimation in a Tropical Rainforest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Zulkarnain Abd Rahman

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent methods for detailed and accurate biomass and carbon stock estimation of forests have been driven by advances in remote sensing technology. The conventional approach to biomass estimation heavily relies on the tree species and site-specific allometric equations, which are based on destructive methods. This paper introduces a non-destructive, laser-based approach (terrestrial laser scanner for individual tree aboveground biomass estimation in the Royal Belum forest reserve, Perak, Malaysia. The study area is in the state park, and it is believed to be one of the oldest rainforests in the world. The point clouds generated for 35 forest plots, using the terrestrial laser scanner, were geo-rectified and cleaned to produce separate point clouds for individual trees. The volumes of tree trunks were estimated based on a cylinder model fitted to the point clouds. The biomasses of tree trunks were calculated by multiplying the volume and the species wood density. The biomasses of branches and leaves were also estimated based on the estimated volume and density values. Branch and leaf volumes were estimated based on the fitted point clouds using an alpha-shape approach. The estimated individual biomass and the total above ground biomass were compared with the aboveground biomass (AGB value estimated using existing allometric equations and individual tree census data collected in the field. The results show that the combination of a simple single-tree stem reconstruction and wood density can be used to estimate stem biomass comparable to the results usually obtained through existing allometric equations. However, there are several issues associated with the data and method used for branch and leaf biomass estimations, which need further improvement.

  19. Metaanalysis of Diagnostic Performance of Computed Coronary Tomography Angiography, Computed Tomography Perfusion and Computed Tomography-Fractional Flow Reserve in Functional Myocardial Ischemia Assessment versus Invasive Fractional Flow Reserve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Jorge A.; Lipinski, Michael J.; Flors, Lucia F.; Shaw, Peter; Kramer, Christopher M.; Salerno, Michael

    2015-01-01

    We sought to compare the diagnostic performance of computed coronary tomography angiography (CCTA), computed tomography perfusion (CTP) and computed tomography fractional flow reserve (CT-FFR) for assessing the functional significance of coronary stenosis as defined by invasive fractional flow reserve (FFR), in patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease. CCTA has proven clinically useful for excluding obstructive CAD due to its high sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV), however the ability of CTA to identify functionally significant CAD has remained challenging. We searched PubMed/Medline for studies evaluating CCTA, CTP or CT-FFR for the non-invasive detection of obstructive CAD as compared to catheter-derived FFR as the reference standard. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, likelihood ratios (LR), odds ratio (OR) of all diagnostic tests were assessed. Eighteen studies involving a total of 1535 patients were included. CTA demonstrated a pooled sensitivity of 0.92, specificity 0.43, PPV of 0.56 and NPV of 0.87 on a per-patient level. CT-FFR and CTP increased the specificity to 0.72 and 0.77 respectively (P=0.004 and P=0.0009)) resulting in higher point estimates for PPV 0.70 and 0.83 respectively. There was no improvement in the sensitivity. The CTP protocol involved more radiation (3.5 mSv CCTA VS 9.6 mSv CTP) and a higher volume of iodinated contrast (145 mL). In conclusion, CTP and CT-FFR improve the specificity of CCTA for detecting functionally significant stenosis as defined by invasive FFR on a per-patient level; both techniques could advance the ability to non-invasively detect the functional significance of coronary lesions. PMID:26347004

  20. Phytochemicals Screening, Total Phenol Estimation, Antioxidant Activity of Blainvillea Acmella Leaf and Stem Successive Extracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, P.; Sharma, G.N.; Shrivastava, B.; Jadhav, H.R.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of present work was to investigate antioxidant potential of different extracts of Blainvillea acmella leaf and stem. The successive extraction of individual plant part was carried out using solvents of different polarity viz. n-hexane, ethyl acetate, methanol and water. Preliminary phyto chemical screening of all the extracts was done. The present total phenolic contents were estimated by Folin-Ciocalteu reagent method and expressed as μg/ mg of gallic acid equivalent. The antioxidant potential and reducing power of all the prepared extracts were measured against DPPH, as compared to standard ascorbic acid, and BHA respectively. The result data indicate that the phenolic contents were higher in methanolic extracts of leaf (73.67 ± 0.38 mg/ g) followed by ethyl acetate (29.08 ± 0.38 mg/ g), aqueous (21.50 ± 0.28 mg/ g), and n-Hexane (9.29 ± 0.38 mg/ g); gallic acid equivalent. The similar pattern in stem part was also observed for example methanolic extracts (41.90 ± 0.45 mg/ g), ethyl acetate (21.92 ± 0.28 mg/ g), aqueous (15.13 ± 0.18 mg/ g), and n-Hexane (3.69 ± 0.28 mg/ g). The antioxidant capacity of methanolic extract of both the part for example leaf and stem was found to be maximum, as IC50 values were 226.49 ± 0.16, 402.05 ± 1.10 respectively. The reducing power was also highest in methanol extract of both parts. The result data conclude that the higher antioxidant as well as reducing power may be due to present phenolic contents. (author)

  1. Ovarian reserve after treatment with alkylating agents during childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas-Teinturier, Cécile; Allodji, Rodrigue Sétchéou; Svetlova, Ekaterina; Frey, Marie-Alix; Oberlin, Odile; Millischer, Anne-Elodie; Epelboin, Sylvie; Decanter, Christine; Pacquement, Helene; Tabone, Marie-Dominique; Sudour-Bonnange, Helene; Baruchel, André; Lahlou, Najiba; De Vathaire, Florent

    2015-06-01

    What is the effect of different alkylating agents used without pelvic radiation to treat childhood cancer in girls on the ovarian reserve in survivors? Ovarian reserve seems to be particularly reduced in survivors who received procarbazine (in most cases for Hodgkin lymphoma) or high-dose chemotherapy; procarbazine but not cyclophosphamide dose is associated with diminished ovarian reserve. A few studies have demonstrated diminished ovarian reserve in survivors after various combination therapies, but the individual role of each treatment is difficult to assess. Prospective cross-sectional study, involving 105 survivors and 20 controls. One hundred and five survivors aged 17-40 years and 20 controls investigated on Days 2-5 of a menstrual cycle or Day 7 of an oral contraceptive pill-free interval. ovarian surface area (OS), total number of antral follicles (AFC), serum levels of follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH), estradiol and anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH). Survivors had a lower OS than controls: 3.5 versus 4.4 cm(2) per ovary (P = 0.0004), and lower AMH levels: 10.7 versus 22 pmol/l (P = 0.003). Ovarian markers (OS, AMH, AFC) were worse in patients who received high-dose compared with conventional-dose alkylating agents (P = 0.01 for OS, P = 0.002 for AMH, P < 0.0001 for AFC). Hodgkin lymphoma survivors seemed to have a greater reduction in ovarian reserve than survivors of leukaemia (P = 0.04 for AMH, P = 0.01 for AFC), sarcoma (P = 0.04 for AMH, P = 0.04 for AFC) and other lymphomas (P = 0.04 for AFC). A multiple linear regression analysis showed that procarbazine but not cyclophosphamide nor ifosfamide dose was associated with reduced OS (P = 0.0003), AFC (P = 0.0007), AMH (P < 0.0001) and higher FSH levels (P < 0.0001). The small percentage of participating survivors (28%) from the total cohort does not allow conclusion on fertility issues because of possible response bias. The association between procarbazine and HL makes it

  2. Overview of Total Group financial year

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2003-01-01

    In 2004, the combination of very high crude oil prices with a strong rise of refining margins, and in the second half of 2004 of the start off again of the rise of petrochemical margins, has led Total Group to reach a record level of 9.04 billion euros for its net adjusted result, which represents a 23% rise with respect to 2003, and this despite a fall of the Dollar exchange rate. Total has also carried on its downstream strategy of natural gas production. This strategy aims at facilitating and optimizing the access to its present day and future productions and reserves, not only to traditional markets but also to markets opened to world competition. (J.S.)

  3. Estimating the harms and costs of cannabis-attributable collisions in the Canadian provinces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wettlaufer, Ashley; Florica, Roxana O; Asbridge, Mark; Beirness, Douglas; Brubacher, Jeffrey; Callaghan, Russell; Fischer, Benedikt; Gmel, Gerrit; Imtiaz, Sameer; Mann, Robert E; McKiernan, Anna; Rehm, Jürgen

    2017-04-01

    In 2012, 10% of Canadians used cannabis and just under half of those who use cannabis were estimated to have driven under the influence of cannabis. Substantial evidence has accumulated to indicate that driving after cannabis use increases collision risk significantly; however, little is known about the extent and costs associated with cannabis-related traffic collisions. This study quantifies the costs of cannabis-related traffic collisions in the Canadian provinces. Province and age specific cannabis-attributable fractions (CAFs) were calculated for traffic collisions of varying severity. The CAFs were applied to traffic collision data in order to estimate the total number of persons involved in cannabis-attributable fatal, injury and property damage only collisions. Social cost values, based on willingness-to-pay and direct costs, were applied to estimate the costs associated with cannabis-related traffic collisions. The 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Monte Carlo methodology. Cannabis-attributable traffic collisions were estimated to have caused 75 deaths (95% CI: 0-213), 4407 injuries (95% CI: 20-11,549) and 7794 people (95% CI: 3107-13,086) were involved in property damage only collisions in Canada in 2012, totalling $1,094,972,062 (95% CI: 37,069,392-2,934,108,175) with costs being highest among younger people. The cannabis-attributable driving harms and costs are substantial. The harm and cost of cannabis-related collisions is an important factor to consider as Canada looks to legalize and regulate the sale of cannabis. This analysis provides evidence to help inform Canadian policy to reduce the human and economic costs of drug-impaired driving. Copyright © 2017 Canadian Centre on Substance Abuse. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Dose rate estimation of the Tohoku hynobiid salamander, Hynobius lichenatus, in Fukushima.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuma, Shoichi; Ihara, Sadao; Kawaguchi, Isao; Ishikawa, Takahiro; Watanabe, Yoshito; Kubota, Yoshihisa; Sato, Youji; Takahashi, Hiroyuki; Aono, Tatsuo; Ishii, Nobuyoshi; Soeda, Haruhi; Matsui, Kumi; Une, Yumi; Minamiya, Yukio; Yoshida, Satoshi

    2015-05-01

    The radiological risks to the Tohoku hynobiid salamanders (class Amphibia), Hynobius lichenatus due to the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident were assessed in Fukushima Prefecture, including evacuation areas. Aquatic egg clutches (n = 1 for each sampling date and site; n = 4 in total), overwintering larvae (n = 1-5 for each sampling date and site; n = 17 in total), and terrestrial juveniles or adults (n = 1 or 3 for each sampling date and site; n = 12 in total) of H. lichenatus were collected from the end of April 2011 to April 2013. Environmental media such as litter (n = 1-5 for each sampling date and site; n = 30 in total), soil (n = 1-8 for each sampling date and site; n = 31 in total), water (n = 1 for each sampling date and site; n = 17 in total), and sediment (n = 1 for each sampling date and site; n = 17 in total) were also collected. Activity concentrations of (134)Cs + (137)Cs were 1.9-2800, 0.13-320, and 0.51-220 kBq (dry kg) (-1) in the litter, soil, and sediment samples, respectively, and were 0.31-220 and <0.29-40 kBq (wet kg)(-1) in the adult and larval salamanders, respectively. External and internal absorbed dose rates to H. lichenatus were calculated from these activity concentration data, using the ERICA Assessment Tool methodology. External dose rates were also measured in situ with glass dosimeters. There was agreement within a factor of 2 between the calculated and measured external dose rates. In the most severely contaminated habitat of this salamander, a northern part of Abukuma Mountains, the highest total dose rates were estimated to be 50 and 15 μGy h(-1) for the adults and overwintering larvae, respectively. Growth and survival of H. lichenatus was not affected at a dose rate of up to 490 μGy h(-1) in the previous laboratory chronic gamma-irradiation experiment, and thus growth and survival of this salamander would not be affected, even in the most severely contaminated habitat in Fukushima Prefecture. However, further

  5. INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, GUARANTEE THAT SUPPORTS ROMANIA'S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MEDAR LUCIAN-ION

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Aggregate demand in our country far exceeds the ability of the economy to produce goods and services. The gap between total demand for goods and services on the one hand and economic status, on the other hand stands out primarily by the continuing need for funds to cover the budget deficit. The Lack of foreign investors, poor development of capital market and non-involvement of credit institutions to support economic development leads the Romanian state to borrow regularly on international money market. Guarantor of the country for these loans is the reserve fund managed by the central bank of the state. Trade deficits and foreign borrowing are two components of the same problems. As the state borrows more from the international financial markets the higher is the trade deficit. A national initiative on facilities development companies with export production and aggregate demand for domestic products, can lead to lower imports. Increasing the fund's reserves and activation may be one of the solutions required to support economic development. Through this study we try to discover the role of the reserve fund and other sources of economic development.

  6. Estimating Vehicular Emission in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krishna Prasad Ghimire

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The study estimate, the vehicular emission load for CO, CO2 , HCs, NOX, SO2, Dioxin/Furans, Particulate Matters (PM10, PM2.5, Black carbon and Organic Carbon by using emission factors and Global Warming Potentials (GWPs of the pollutants (CO2, NOX, BC and OC. For this purpose, data were collected through the video tape record (in 30 sites, questionnaire survey, field visit, and literatures review. The total estimated emission of Kathmandu Valley (KV was 7231053.12 ton/year. Of the total emission, CO2 emission was highest i.e., 91.01% followed by CO 5.03%, HC 0.96%, NOX 0.60%, PM10 0.18% and SO2 0.10%. Annually 529353.36 μg Toxic Equivalent (TEQ of Dioxin/Furan produced and directly disperse to the ambient environment. The total estimated PM2.5, BC and OC emission were 9649.40 ton/year, 1640.4 ton/year and 2894.82 ton/year. The total carbon equivalence of the combined emissions (CO2, NOX and BC for 100-years standard time horizon is 10579763.6 ton CO2-eq i.e., 2885390.07 ton carbon.CO2 alone will be responsible, for about 62% of the impacts for the next century from current emissions of CO2, NOX and BC. Of the total emission Heavy Duty Vehicles (HDV emits 50%, Light Duty Vehicles (LDV emits, 27%, 2-Wheelers emits 22% and 3-Wheeler (Tempo emits 1%. The total emission of all pollutants combined per vehicle together was estimated to be 5.46 ton/year which was estimated as 23.63, 10.35, 1.83 and 5.58 ton/year for HDV, LDV, 2-Wheelers and 3-Wheeler respectively. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ije.v3i4.11742      International Journal of EnvironmentVolume-3, Issue-4, Sep-Nov 2014Page: 133-146 

  7. Reserve growth in oil pools of Alberta : model and forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verma, M.; Cook, T. [United States Geological Survey, Denver, CO (United States). Central Region

    2010-09-15

    This paper presented a reserve growth study that was conducted on oil pools in Alberta, Canada. Historical oil reserve data were evaluated to assess the potential for future reserve growth in both pools and fields, and reserve growth models and functions were developed to better forecast hydrocarbon volumes. The study also considered the sensitivity of reserve growth to such factors as pool size, porosity, and oil gravity. From 1960 to 2005, the reported known recoverable oil in Alberta, excluding the Athabasca oil sands and including only pools with adequate data, increased from 4.2 to 13.9 billion barrels of oil (BBO). New discoveries contributed 3.7 BBO and reserve growth added 6 BBO. Most reserve growth occurred in pools with more than 125,000 barrels of oil. Light-oil pools account for most of the total known oil volume and consequently showed the lowest growth. Pools with greater than 30 percent porosity grew more than pools with lower porosity reservoirs. Oil field growth was found to be almost twice that of pool growth, possibly because the analysis evaluated fields with two or more pools discovered in different years. The growth in oil volumes in Alberta pools is projected to be about 454 million barrels of oil in the period from 2006 to 2010. Over a 25-year period, the cumulative reserve growth in Alberta oil pools was substantially lower than other major petroleum-producing regions, but the growth at the field level compares well. 8 refs., 2 tabs., 9 figs.

  8. Mosses as an integrating tool for monitoring PAH atmospheric deposition: comparison with total deposition and evaluation of bioconcentration factors. A year-long case-study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foan, Louise; Domercq, Maria; Bermejo, Raúl; Santamaría, Jesús Miguel; Simon, Valérie

    2015-01-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) atmospheric deposition was evaluated at a remote site in Northern Spain using moss biomonitoring with Hylocomium splendens (Hedw.) Schimp., and by measuring the total deposition fluxes of PAHs. The year-long study allowed seasonal variations of PAH content in mosses to be observed, and these followed a similar trend to those of PAH fluxes in total deposition. Generally, atmospheric deposition of PAHs is greater in winter than in summer, due to more PAH emissions from domestic heating, less photoreactivity of the compounds, and intense leaching of the atmosphere by wet deposition. However, fractionation of these molecules between the environmental compartments occurs: PAH fluxes in total deposition and PAH concentrations in mosses are correlated with their solubility (r=0.852, pPAH fluxes can be estimated with moss biomonitoring data if the bioconcentration or 'enriching' factors are known. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Elephant crop damage and electric fence construction in the Maputo Elephant Reserve, Mozambique

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, de W.F.; Ntumi, C.P.

    2001-01-01

    An electric fence is at present being constructed around the Maputo Elephant Reserve, Mozambique, to protect farmers from elephant raids. Elephants cause crop damage, estimated at US$ 8800 yr-1, or US$ 50 elephant-1. Elephants preferred maize, melons and beans and their raid frequency increased

  10. Estimation of the number of wild pigs found in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mayer, J. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2014-08-01

    Based on a compilation of three estimation approaches, the total nationwide population of wild pigs in the United States numbers approximately 6.3 million animals, with that total estimate ranging from 4.4 up to 11.3 million animals. The majority of these numbers (99 percent), which were encompassed by ten states (i.e., Alabama, Arkansas, California, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Texas), were based on defined estimation methodologies (e.g., density estimates correlated to the total potential suitable wild pig habitat statewide, statewide harvest percentages, statewide agency surveys regarding wild pig distribution and numbers). In contrast to the pre-1990 estimates, none of these more recent efforts, collectively encompassing 99 percent of the total, were based solely on anecdotal information or speculation. To that end, one can defensibly state that the wild pigs found in the United States number in the millions of animals, with the nationwide population estimated to arguably vary from about four million up to about eleven million individuals.

  11. Health Status of Military Women in the Total Force

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bray, Robert

    1997-01-01

    ..., Air Force, and Guard/Reserve components. These data will be combined with comparable data from a Naval Health Research Center survey of active-duty Navy and Marine Corps personnel to form a comprehensive dataset for the Total Force...

  12. VSRR - Quarterly provisional estimates for selected birth indicators

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Provisional estimates of selected reproductive indicators. Estimates are presented for: general fertility rates, age-specific birth rates, total and low risk...

  13. Uncertainty Estimate in Resources Assessment: A Geostatistical Contribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souza, Luis Eduardo de; Costa, Joao Felipe C. L.; Koppe, Jair C.

    2004-01-01

    For many decades the mining industry regarded resources/reserves estimation and classification as a mere calculation requiring basic mathematical and geological knowledge. Most methods were based on geometrical procedures and spatial data distribution. Therefore, uncertainty associated with tonnages and grades either were ignored or mishandled, although various mining codes require a measure of confidence in the values reported. Traditional methods fail in reporting the level of confidence in the quantities and grades. Conversely, kriging is known to provide the best estimate and its associated variance. Among kriging methods, Ordinary Kriging (OK) probably is the most widely used one for mineral resource/reserve estimation, mainly because of its robustness and its facility in uncertainty assessment by using the kriging variance. It also is known that OK variance is unable to recognize local data variability, an important issue when heterogeneous mineral deposits with higher and poorer grade zones are being evaluated. Alternatively, stochastic simulation are used to build local or global uncertainty about a geological attribute respecting its statistical moments. This study investigates methods capable of incorporating uncertainty to the estimates of resources and reserves via OK and sequential gaussian and sequential indicator simulation The results showed that for the type of mineralization studied all methods classified the tonnages similarly. The methods are illustrated using an exploration drill hole data sets from a large Brazilian coal deposit

  14. In vivo measurement of total body carbon using 238Pu/Be neutron sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sutcliffe, J.F.; Mitra, S.; Hill, G.L.

    1990-01-01

    Total body carbon has been measured by in vivo neutron activation analysis (IVNAA) in 278 surgical gastroenterological patients and 29 normal volunteers. This is based on the inelastic scattering reaction { 12 C(n,n') 12 C*} for neutrons with energy above 4.8MeV, producing 4.43 MeV gamma rays. Since only part of the body is scanned, total body carbon is estimated as the ratio of the gamma ray emission from carbon to the emission from hydrogen, using hydrogen as the internal standard. The precision of the estimate is ±1.6kg for a whole body dose of 0.3mSv. There is a significant difference between the estimates of total body water from IVNAA measurements of carbon and nitrogen and measurements of body water in these subjects by tritium dilution (t=3.1, p < 0.005). (author)

  15. Greenhouse gas emissions from operating reserves used to backup large-scale wind power.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fripp, Matthias

    2011-11-01

    Wind farms provide electricity with no direct emissions. However, their output cannot be forecasted perfectly, even a short time ahead. Consequently, power systems with large amounts of wind power may need to keep extra fossil-fired generators turned on and ready to provide power if wind farm output drops unexpectedly. In this work, I introduce a new model for estimating the uncertainty in short-term wind power forecasts, and how this uncertainty varies as wind power is aggregated over larger regions. I then use this model to estimate the reserve requirements in order to compensate for wind forecast errors to a 99.999% level of reliability, and an upper limit on the amount of carbon dioxide that would be emitted if natural gas power plants are used for this purpose. I find that for regions larger than 500 km across, operating reserves will undo 6% or less of the greenhouse gas emission savings that would otherwise be expected from wind power.

  16. Ichthyoplankton of arvoredo biological marine reserve, Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thais Rutkowski

    Full Text Available Arvoredo Island, located in Santa Catarina state - south Brazil, and its surrounding area were defined as a Conservation Unit (CU in the category of Biological Reserve since 1990. This research aimed to analyze the inter-annual and seasonal (winter and summer variations of ichthyoplankton densities at Arvoredo Biology Marine Reserve (ABMR, and their relationship with environmental variables in 1997/1998 (Campaign 1, 2007/2008 (Campaign 2 and 2008/2009 (Campaign 3. Fish eggs and larvae were sampled using a WP-2 net with 200 µm mesh size. The study area was influenced by three water masses, (i Coastal Water throughout the whole year, (ii Subtropical Shelf Water during the winter, and (iii South Atlantic Central Water mainly in summer. A total of 4,891 eggs were collected and classified as Engraulidae and Sardinella brasiliensis (Clupeidae. The total number of larvae was 467 belonging to 5 orders, 19 families, and 21 species. Taxonomic composition demonstrated a seasonal pattern among periods, with the highest densities of Engraulidae occurring in winter and the families Carangidae, Clupeidae and Gerreidae in summer. The high number of families and abundance of ichthyoplankton observed in ABMR may be important in supplying the adjacent coastal areas impacted by fishing.

  17. Prediction of the Maximum Number of Repetitions and Repetitions in Reserve From Barbell Velocity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Ramos, Amador; Torrejón, Alejandro; Feriche, Belén; Morales-Artacho, Antonio J; Pérez-Castilla, Alejandro; Padial, Paulino; Haff, Guy Gregory

    2018-03-01

    To provide 2 general equations to estimate the maximum possible number of repetitions (XRM) from the mean velocity (MV) of the barbell and the MV associated with a given number of repetitions in reserve, as well as to determine the between-sessions reliability of the MV associated with each XRM. After determination of the bench-press 1-repetition maximum (1RM; 1.15 ± 0.21 kg/kg body mass), 21 men (age 23.0 ± 2.7 y, body mass 72.7 ± 8.3 kg, body height 1.77 ± 0.07 m) completed 4 sets of as many repetitions as possible against relative loads of 60%1RM, 70%1RM, 80%1RM, and 90%1RM over 2 separate sessions. The different loads were tested in a randomized order with 10 min of rest between them. All repetitions were performed at the maximum intended velocity. Both the general equation to predict the XRM from the fastest MV of the set (CV = 15.8-18.5%) and the general equation to predict MV associated with a given number of repetitions in reserve (CV = 14.6-28.8%) failed to provide data with acceptable between-subjects variability. However, a strong relationship (median r 2  = .984) and acceptable reliability (CV  .85) were observed between the fastest MV of the set and the XRM when considering individual data. These results indicate that generalized group equations are not acceptable methods for estimating the XRM-MV relationship or the number of repetitions in reserve. When attempting to estimate the XRM-MV relationship, one must use individualized relationships to objectively estimate the exact number of repetitions that can be performed in a training set.

  18. Hunting Intensity in the Suhuma Forest Reserve in the Sefwi Wiawso ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hunting intensity in the Suhuma Forest Reserve (SFR) in the Sefwi Wiawso District of the Western Region of Ghana has been investigated. The methodology involved the recording of signs of hunting activity using linetransects, and interviews with hunters. A total of 157 spent cartridges, 21 wire snares, presence of 17 ...

  19. A characterization and determination of the coal reserves and resources of southwest Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westman, Erik Christian

    Coal mining has been the primary industry of Southwest Virginia for more than 100 years. Coal production increased steadily until it reached a peak in 1990. Since then it has begun a decline, accompanied by decreasing coal revenues to the region. In order to more effectively plan the future economy of the area a study was conducted to characterize and estimate remaining coal resources. Seam thickness was found to be the parameter which most influenced resource levels. An economic model was developed to determine which portion of the reserves could economically be extracted. It was found that 3.95 billion tons, or 14% of the remaining resource, are economic under current mining conditions. Many of these reserves, however, occur in seams at depths which require costly development prior to initiation of mining. The database used for the study was found to be accurate, but imprecise. Based on the quantitative measurements of accuracy and precision, a reserve quantity of 1.6 billion tons should be used for planning purposes. The precision of the database can be improved with additional data. A program encouraging the mining industry to submit their data to the state, while ensuring confidentiality, would allow more precise estimates to be made, ultimately benefiting all members of the Southwest Virginia community.

  20. [Modeling of the financial reserves required by the livestock disease compensation fund of Lower Saxony for rebates in the course of disease outbreaks incorporating spatial restriction zones].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denzin, Nicolai; Gerdes, Ursula

    2015-01-01

    One of the tasks of the livestock disease compensation funds of the federal states in Germany is the financial compensation of livestock holders for livestock losses and costs incurred for disease control measures due to certain diseases. Usually, one half of these services are financed through financial reserves built up with the contributions paid by the owners of the respective animal species. The other half is covered by the federal state itself. But there is hardly any reference to how to calculate aforementioned financial reserves. Basically, following an approach presented recently regarding estimations concerning the compensation fund of the federal state of Saxony-Anhalt, in a stochastic modeling of the required reserves concerning the fund of Lower Saxony the anticipated costs within the spatial restriction zones allocated to outbreaks were incorporated for the first time. The overall costs (including the federal state's stakes), the share of the comnensation fund (required reserves) and the the partial costs for a total of 25 categories and subcategories and subcategories of livestock species making up the latter were estimated. It became evident that overall costs/the share of the fund were particularly determined among the diseases by foot-and-mouth disease and among the cost factors by the costs incurred for the compensation of livestock value within the areas surrounding the outbreaks in which all susceptible animals are killed (culling zone). The 80th, 90 and 95th percentile of the established probability distribution of the overall costs referred to a financial volume of about 312, 409 and 540 million euro, while the respective percentiles of the probability distribution of the required reserves of the compensation fund amounted to 175, 225 and 296 million euro.

  1. Development of composite indicator of Ukraine’s international reserves adequacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mykhaylo Makarenko

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops an indicator for estimating international reserves adequacy in Ukraine taking into account its unique characteristics. The proposed indicator was constructed based on the modification of IMF adequacy metric by changing weighting coefficients of potential balance of payments vulnerabilities based on historical data for Ukraine and by the inclusion of import as an additional component. In comparison to the IMF metric our indicator implies greater international reserves. This is due to the fact that balance of payments of Ukraine is very sensitive to current account shocks such as worsening terms of trade so our indicator except import component has increased weighting coefficient of export earnings. Also, compared to the IMF metrics our indicator provides more weighting coefficients of the other portfolio liabilities and the money supply that represents the sensitivity to financial account shocks. Reduced weighting coefficient of the short-term debt could be explained by the partial refinancing of external debt. This new indicator suggests that the accumulated levels of reserves of Ukraine have been inadequate at 1 April 2015.

  2. Effect of the Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation Estimation Error on Net Primary Production Estimation - A Study with MODIS FPAR and TOMS Ultraviolet Reflective Products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobayashi, H.; Matsunaga, T.; Hoyano, A.

    2002-01-01

    Absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR), which is defined as downward solar radiation in 400-700 nm absorbed by vegetation, is one of the significant variables for Net Primary Production (NPP) estimation from satellite data. Toward the reduction of the uncertainties in the global NPP estimation, it is necessary to clarify the APAR accuracy. In this paper, first we proposed the improved PAR estimation method based on Eck and Dye's method in which the ultraviolet (UV) reflectivity data derived from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) at the top of atmosphere were used for clouds transmittance estimation. The proposed method considered the variable effects of land surface UV reflectivity on the satellite-observed UV data. Monthly mean PAR comparisons between satellite-derived and ground-based data at various meteorological stations in Japan indicated that the improved PAR estimation method reduced the bias errors in the summer season. Assuming the relative error of the fraction of PAR (FPAR) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to be 10%, we estimated APAR relative errors to be 10-15%. Annual NPP is calculated using APAR derived from MODIS/ FPAR and the improved PAR estimation method. It is shown that random and bias errors of annual NPP in a 1 km resolution pixel are less than 4% and 6% respectively. The APAR bias errors due to the PAR bias errors also affect the estimated total NPP. We estimated the most probable total annual NPP in Japan by subtracting the bias PAR errors. It amounts about 248 MtC/yr. Using the improved PAR estimation method, and Eck and Dye's method, total annual NPP is 4% and 9% difference from most probable value respectively. The previous intercomparison study among using fifteen NPP models4) showed that global NPP estimations among NPP models are 44.4-66.3 GtC/yr (coefficient of variation = 14%). Hence we conclude that the NPP estimation uncertainty due to APAR estimation error is small

  3. The complexity of computing the MCD-estimator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bernholt, T.; Fischer, Paul

    2004-01-01

    In modem statistics the robust estimation of parameters is a central problem, i.e., an estimation that is not or only slightly affected by outliers in the data. The minimum covariance determinant (MCD) estimator (J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 79 (1984) 871) is probably one of the most important robust...... estimators of location and scatter. The complexity of computing the MCD, however, was unknown and generally thought to be exponential even if the dimensionality of the data is fixed. Here we present a polynomial time algorithm for MCD for fixed dimension of the data. In contrast we show that computing...... the MCD-estimator is NP-hard if the dimension varies. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

  4. Analysis of total polyphenols in wines by FIA with highly stable amperometric detection using carbon nanotube-modified electrodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arribas, Alberto Sánchez; Martínez-Fernández, Marta; Moreno, Mónica; Bermejo, Esperanza; Zapardiel, Antonio; Chicharro, Manuel

    2013-02-15

    The use of glassy carbon electrodes (GCEs) modified with multi-walled carbon nanotube (CNT) films for the continuous monitoring of polyphenols in flow systems has been examined. The performance of these modified electrodes was evaluated and compared to bare GCE by cyclic voltammetry experiments and by flow injection analysis (FIA) with amperometric detection monitoring the response of gallic, caffeic, ferulic and p-coumaric acids in 0.050 M acetate buffer pH 4.5 containing 100 mM NaCl. The GCE modified with CNT dispersions in polyethyleneimine (PEI) provided lower overpotentials, higher sensitivity and much higher signal stability under a dynamic regime than bare GCEs. These properties allowed the estimation of the total polyphenol content in red and white wines with a remarkable long-term stability in the measurements despite the presence of potential fouling substances in the wine matrix. In addition, the versatility of the electrochemical methodology allowed the selective estimation of the easily oxidisable polyphenol fraction as well as the total polyphenol content just by tuning the detection potential at +0.30 or 0.70 V, respectively. The significance of the electrochemical results was demonstrated through correlation studies with the results obtained with conventional spectrophotometric assays for polyphenols (Folin-Ciocalteu, absorbance at 280 nm index and colour intensity index). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Using the Optical Fractionator to Estimate Total Cell Numbers in the Normal and Abnormal Developing Human Forebrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Karen B

    2017-01-01

    abnormal development. Furthermore, many studies of brain cell numbers have employed biased counting methods, whereas innovations in stereology during the past 20-30 years enable reliable and efficient estimates of cell numbers. However, estimates of cell volumes and densities in fetal brain samples...

  6. Environmental Monitoring Plan for the Oak Ridge Reservation, 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thompson, Sharon D. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2012-10-01

    The purpose of Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) environmental surveillance is to characterize radiological and nonradiological conditions of the off-site environs and estimate public doses related to these conditions, confirm estimations of public dose based on effluent monitoring data, and, where appropriate, provide supplemental data to support compliance monitoring for applicable environmental regulations. This environmental monitoring plan (EMP) is intended to document the rationale, frequency, parameters, and analytical methods for the ORR environmental surveillance program and provides information on ORR site characteristics, environmental pathways, dose assessment methods, and quality management. ORR-wide environmental monitoring activities include a variety of media including air, surface water, vegetation, biota, and wildlife. In addition to these activities, site-specific effluent, groundwater, and best management monitoring programs are conducted at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), the Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12), and the East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP). This is revision 5.

  7. Uso de indicadores na determinação da digestibilidade parcial e total em bovinos Use of markers for estimation of feed digestibility in cattle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antônio Ferriani de branco

    2000-05-01

    Full Text Available Este trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar indicadores, externos e internos, nos estudos de digestibilidade parcial e total em bovinos. Como indicador externo, foi utilizado o óxido crômico (Cr2O5 e, como indicadores internos, a cinza insolúvel em ácido (CIA e a fibra em detergente neutro indigestível (FDNI. As rações fornecidas aos animais continham, em média, 13,67% de PB, com 50% concentrado e 50% de volumoso. Foram utilizados quatro novilhos, da raça holandesa, portadores de cânulas no rúmen e no duodeno e com peso vivo médio de 320 kg, para estudar os fluxos de matéria seca (MS e matéria orgânica (MO no duodeno e nas fezes e três vacas fistuladas no rúmen. Para comparar os indicadores, as médias de fluxos de MS e de MO foram estimadas utilizando-se o intervalo de confiança. Também foi utilizado o coeficiente de variação para determinar a precisão das estimativas das médias. Nas condições do presente trabalho, verificou-se que o Cr2O3 foi o indicador que apresentou menor variação na estimativa das médias de fluxo em relação à CIA e à FDNI.The objective of this work was to evaluate external and internal markers in studies of partial and total digestibility in cattle. Chromic oxide (Cr2O3 was used as external marker and acid-insoluble ash (AIA and indigestible neutral detergent fibre (INDF as internal markers. The animals were fed a diet 13.7% crude protein (CP, with 50% concentrate and 50% forage. Four Holstein steers with 320 kg average body weight implanted with ruminal and duodenal cannulas, and three cows with ruminal cannula for INDF determination were used. The experiment was carried to study duodenal and faecal dry matter (DM and organic matter (OM flows estimated by markers. To compare markers, the averages for DM and OM flow were estimated using the trust interval, and the coefficient of variation of average estimation. Under the conditions of the present work it was concluded that chromic oxide

  8. 75 FR 66271 - Assessment Dividends, Assessment Rates and Designated Reserve Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-27

    ... sufficiently large fund and stable premiums is most apparent. Memories of the last two crises will fade and the... deposit and assessment base growth (using adjusted total domestic deposits). Implied forward interest... the analysis into the future, using estimates based on implied forward interest rates and assuming...

  9. Marine Reserve Targets to Sustain and Rebuild Unregulated Fisheries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nils C Krueck

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Overfishing threatens the sustainability of coastal marine biodiversity, especially in tropical developing countries. To counter this problem, about 200 governments worldwide have committed to protecting 10%-20% of national coastal marine areas. However, associated impacts on fisheries productivity are unclear and could weaken the food security of hundreds of millions of people who depend on diverse and largely unregulated fishing activities. Here, we present a systematic theoretic analysis of the ability of reserves to rebuild fisheries under such complex conditions, and we identify maximum reserve coverages for biodiversity conservation that do not impair long-term fisheries productivity. Our analysis assumes that fishers have no viable alternative to fishing, such that total fishing effort remains constant (at best. We find that realistic reserve networks, which protect 10%-30% of fished habitats in 1-20 km wide reserves, should benefit the long-term productivity of almost any complex fishery. We discover a "rule of thumb" to safeguard against the long-term catch depletion of particular species: individual reserves should export 30% or more of locally produced larvae to adjacent fishing grounds. Specifically on coral reefs, where fishers tend to overexploit species whose dispersal distances as larvae exceed the home ranges of adults, decisions on the size of reserves needed to meet the 30% larval export rule are unlikely to compromise the protection of resident adults. Even achieving the modest Aichi Target 11 of 10% "effective protection" can then help rebuild depleted catch. However, strictly protecting 20%-30% of fished habitats is unlikely to diminish catch even if overfishing is not yet a problem while providing greater potential for biodiversity conservation and fishery rebuilding if overfishing is substantial. These findings are important because they suggest that doubling or tripling the only globally enforced marine reserve target

  10. Assessment of ovarian reserve in euthyroid adolescents with Hashimoto thyroiditis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirgon, Ozgur; Sivrice, Cigdem; Demirtas, Hakan; Dundar, Bumin

    2016-01-01

    We aimed to investigate the ovarian function and reserve in euthyroid adolescents (TSH Hashimoto thyroiditis (HT). This case-control study included 30 adolescent girls (mean age 15.1 ± 1.4 years) newly diagnosed as HT with presence of high thyroid antibodies with gland heterogeneity in ultrasound and age-matched 30 healthy female subjects. Anti-ovarian antibody (AOAb), LH/FSH ratio, estradiol, anti-mullerian hormone (AMH), inhibin-B, total testosterone, antral follicle count, ovarian volumes and uterine length were measured. The clinical, laboratory, and ultrasound data of the HT and control groups were compared. There were no significant differences between the girls with HT and healthy controls in relation to LH/FSH ratio, estradiol and inhibin-B levels. AOAb (p = 0.02), AMH (p = 0.007) and total testosterone levels were higher in HT group than the control group (p = 0.03). AOAb level was found to be positively correlated with LH/FSH ratio (p = 0.03), AMH (p = 0.01) and inhibin-B (p thyroiditis had normal ovarian reserve based on measurements of AMH, inhibin B, FSH, LH/FSH ratio, estradiol and antral follicle counts.

  11. Total and ionization cross sections of electron scattering by fluorocarbons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antony, B K; Joshipura, K N; Mason, N J

    2005-01-01

    Electron impact total cross sections (50-2000 eV) and total ionization cross sections (threshold to 2000 eV) are calculated for typical plasma etching molecules CF 4 , C 2 F 4 , C 2 F 6 , C 3 F 8 and CF 3 I and the CF x (x 1-3) radicals. The total elastic and inelastic cross sections are determined in the spherical complex potential formalism. The sum of the two gives the total cross section and the total inelastic cross section is used to calculate the total ionization cross sections. The present total and ionization cross sections are found to be consistent with other theories and experimental measurements, where they exist. Our total cross section results for CF x (x = 1-3) radicals presented here are first estimates on these species

  12. Underground coal gasification technology impact on coal reserves in Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John William Rosso Murillo

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In situ coal gasification technology (Underground Coal Gasification–UCG– is an alternative to the traditional exploitation, due to it allows to reach the today’s inaccessible coal reserves’ recovery, to conventional mining technologies. In this article I answer the question on how the today’s reserves available volume, can be increased, given the possibility to exploit further and better the same resources. Mining is an important wealth resource in Colombia as a contributor to the national GDP. According with the Energy Ministry (Ministerio de Minas y Energía [1] mining has been around 5% of total GDP in the last years. This is a significant fact due to the existence of a considerable volume of reserves not accounted for (proved reserves at year 2010 were 6.700 million of tons. Source: INGEOMINAS and UPME, and the coal future role’s prospect, in the world energy production.

  13. Novel Equations for Estimating Lean Body Mass in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Xue; Chen, Yuan; Yang, Zhi-Kai; Qu, Zhen; Dong, Jie

    2018-05-01

    Simplified methods to estimate lean body mass (LBM), an important nutritional measure representing muscle mass and somatic protein, are lacking in nondialyzed patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We developed and tested 2 reliable equations for estimation of LBM in daily clinical practice. The development and validation groups both included 150 nondialyzed patients with CKD Stages 3 to 5. Two equations for estimating LBM based on mid-arm muscle circumference (MAMC) or handgrip strength (HGS) were developed and validated in CKD patients with dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry as referenced gold method. We developed and validated 2 equations for estimating LBM based on HGS and MAMC. These equations, which also incorporated sex, height, and weight, were developed and validated in CKD patients. The new equations were found to exhibit only small biases when compared with dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry, with median differences of 0.94 and 0.46 kg observed in the HGS and MAMC equations, respectively. Good precision and accuracy were achieved for both equations, as reflected by small interquartile ranges in the differences and in the percentages of estimates that were 20% of measured LBM. The bias, precision, and accuracy of each equation were found to be similar when it was applied to groups of patients divided by the median measured LBM, the median ratio of extracellular to total body water, and the stages of CKD. LBM estimated from MAMC or HGS were found to provide accurate estimates of LBM in nondialyzed patients with CKD. Copyright © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Valuing Recreational Benefits of Coral Reefs: The Case of Mombasa Marine National Park and Reserve, Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ransom, Kevin P.; Mangi, Stephen C.

    2010-01-01

    A contingent valuation study was conducted with adult Kenyan citizens and foreign tourists to estimate the value of recreational benefits arising from coral reefs at Mombasa Marine National Park and Reserve (MMNPR), and to assess the implications for local reef management. Citizen and foreign visitors to MMNPR were willing to pay an extra 2.2 (median = 1.6) and 8 (median = 6.7) per visit respectively, in addition to current park entrance fees, to support reef quality improvements. By aggregating visitors’ willingness to pay bids over the number of visitors to MMNPR in 2006-2007 the value of benefits was estimated at 346,733, which was more than twice the total annual operational expenditure of 152,383 for MMNPR. The findings indicate that annual revenues from citizen and foreign visitors may be increased by 60% to 261,932 through the implementation of proposed higher park fees of 3.10 for citizens and 15 for foreign visitors. However, any fee increase would serve to intensify concerns among citizens that only relatively affluent Kenyans can afford to visit MMNPR. Park managers need to demonstrate that the extra revenue would be used to fund the proposed conservation activities. This valuation study demonstrates that visitors are prepared to pay higher user fees for access to the marine protected area revealing considerable untapped resource to finance reef quality improvements.

  15. TotalFinaElf Factbook 2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    This report presents the activities and results of the Group Total-Fina-Elf for the year 2002. It brings information and economic data on the following topics: the corporate and business; the upstream activities with the reserves, the costs, standardized measure and changes of discounted future net cash flow,oil and gas acreage, drilling, liquefied natural gas, pipelines; downstream activities with refining and marketing maps, refinery, petroleum products, sales, retail gasoline outlets; chemicals with sales and operating income by sector, major applications, base chemicals and polymers, intermediates and performance polymers. (A.L.B.)

  16. Total evaporation estimates from a Renosterveld and dryland wheat/fallow surface at the Voëlvlei Nature Reserve (South Africa)

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Jovanovic, Nebojsa

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Accurate quantification of the water balance, in particular evapotranspiration, is fundamental in managing water resources, especially in semi-arid areas. The objective of this study was to compare evaporation from endemic vegetation...

  17. Forecast of oil reserves and production in Daqing oilfield of China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tang, Xu; Zhang, Baosheng; Feng, Lianyong [The School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, 18 Fuxue Road, Changping, Beijing (China); Hoeoek, Mikael [Global Energy Systems, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala University, Box 535, SE-751 21 Uppsala (Sweden)

    2010-07-15

    As China' largest oilfield, Daqing is of great importance to China, this paper analyzes the status of the Daqing oilfield and forecasts its ultimate recoverable reserves by use of the URR model. The forecast results are presented for three scenarios which show that the ultimate recoverable reserves in Daqing oilfield are 3574.0 million tons in the optimistic scenario, 3169.3 million in the base case scenario and 3033.3 million in the pessimistic scenario, respectively. A system dynamics model is established and the quantitative relationships between variables in the model are determined. Total oil production, remaining recoverable reserves, annual newly discovered reserves, and the degree of reserves recovery before 2060 are simulated under the three scenarios by use of the system dynamics model. The forecast results show that the future oil production in Daqing oilfield will continue declining, under the base case scenario, from 41.6 million tons in 2007 to 8.0 million tons in 2060. For Chinese policy-makers, it is worth paying attention to the problem of whether oil production in new oilfields can effectively make up for the decline in production of the large, old oilfields. (author)

  18. Analysis of Human Activities in Nature Reserves Based on Nighttime Light Remote Sensing and Microblogging Data - by the Case of National Nature Reserves in Jiangxi Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, F.; Li, X.; Xu, H.

    2017-09-01

    The study used the mainstream social media in china - Sina microblogging data combined with nighttime light remote sensing and various geographical data to reveal the pattern of human activities and light pollution of the Jiangxi Provincial National Nature Reserves. Firstly, we performed statistical analysis based on both functional areas and km-grid from the perspective of space and time, and selected the key areas for in-depth study. Secondly, the relationship between microblogging data and nighttime light remote sensing, population, GDP, road coverage, road distance and road type in nature reserves was analyzed by Spearman correlation coefficient method, so the distribution pattern and influencing factors of the microblogging data were explored. Thirdly, a region where the luminance value was greater than 0.2 was defined as a light region. We evaluated the management status by analyzing the distribution of microblogging data in both light area and non-light area. Final results showed that in all nature reserves, the top three were the Lushan Nature Reserve, the Jinggangshan Nature Reserve, the Taohongling National Nature Reserve of Sikas both on the total number and density of microblogging ; microblogging had a significant correlation with nighttime light remote sensing , the GDP, population, road and other factors; the distribution of microblogging near roads in protected area followed power laws; luminous radiance of Lushan Nature Reserve was the highest, with 43 percent of region was light at night; analysis combining nighttime light remote sensing with microblogging data reflected the status of management of nature reserves.

  19. Evaluating the Quality of Protected Areas for Species: A Case Study in Ikh Nart Nature Reserve, Mongolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James D. Murdoch

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Species’ distributions refl ect the quality of landscape conditions, and represent an important component of protected area management. However, distributions are diffi cult to estimate, and consequently, often determined through a combination of limited fi eld data and expert opinion, which may lead to biases. We demonstrate the use of occupancy models to map distributions and estimate landscape quality. We used occupancy models for two species, the red fox and toad-headed agama, to map their distributions in Ikh Nart Nature Reserve located in southeastern Mongolia. We then used occupancy probability as a measure of quality and tested whether differences existed in quality between three areas: 1 inside the reserve, 2 inside the reserve’s core protected area, and 3 outside the reserve, using 30 sample sites in each. Occupancy probability varied from 0.084 to 0.997 for red foxes and 0.022 to 0.949 for agamas in maps. Landscape quality was highest in the core area and lowest outside the reserve for red foxes, and highest outside the reserve and lowest in the core area for agamas. Our results provide visual depictions of distributions across the Ikh Nart landscape and a means of assessing the quality of the Ikh Nart protected area that may inform management activities.

  20. Coal: resources, reserves and production - Panorama 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    For the French, whose last coal mine closed in 2004, the 'comeback' of coal as a political issue may seem a bit surprising. Even if coal is still used in domestic industry and to produce electricity, it is many years since it was used as the primary energy source for electricity production. This situation, specific to France and certain European countries, is not at all typical of the world situation: in the face of surging energy demand, coal - whose reserves have been estimated by the World Energy Council to cover 145 years of consumption at the current rate - seems to be an energy of the future and an alternative to oil, natural gas and nuclear power for the production of electricity

  1. A mechanistic compartmental model for total antibody uptake in tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurber, Greg M; Dane Wittrup, K

    2012-12-07

    Antibodies are under development to treat a variety of cancers, such as lymphomas, colon, and breast cancer. A major limitation to greater efficacy for this class of drugs is poor distribution in vivo. Localization of antibodies occurs slowly, often in insufficient therapeutic amounts, and distributes heterogeneously throughout the tumor. While the microdistribution around individual vessels is important for many therapies, the total amount of antibody localized in the tumor is paramount for many applications such as imaging, determining the therapeutic index with antibody drug conjugates, and dosing in radioimmunotherapy. With imaging and pretargeted therapeutic strategies, the time course of uptake is critical in determining when to take an image or deliver a secondary reagent. We present here a simple mechanistic model of antibody uptake and retention that captures the major rates that determine the time course of antibody concentration within a tumor including dose, affinity, plasma clearance, target expression, internalization, permeability, and vascularization. Since many of the parameters are known or can be estimated in vitro, this model can approximate the time course of antibody concentration in tumors to aid in experimental design, data interpretation, and strategies to improve localization. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Human cancer risk estimation for 1,3-butadiene: An assessment of personal exposure and different microenvironments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huy, Lai Nguyen; Lee, Shun Cheng; Zhang, Zhuozhi

    2018-03-01

    This study estimated the lifetime cancer risk (LCR) attributable to 1,3-butadiene (BD) personal exposure and to other microenvironments, including residential home, outdoor, in-office, in-vehicle, and dining. Detailed life expectancy by country (WHO), inhalation rate and body weight by gender reported by USEPA were used for the calculation, focusing on adult population (25≤Agepersonal exposure exceeded the USEPA benchmark of 1×10 -6 in many cities. For outdoor BD exposure, LCR estimations in 45 out of 175 cities/sites (sharing 26%) exceeded the USEPA benchmark. Out of the top 20 cities having high LCR estimations, developing countries contributed 19 cities, including 14, 3, 1, 1 cities in China, India, Chile, and Pakistan. One city in the United States was in the list due to the nearby industrial facilities. The LCR calculations for BD levels found in residential home, in-vehicle and dining microenvironments also exceeded 1×10 -6 in some cities, while LCR caused by in-office BD levels had the smallest risk. Four cities/regions were used for investigating source distributions to total LCR results because of their sufficient BD data. Home exposure contributed significantly to total LCR value (ranging 56% to 86%), followed by in-vehicle (4% to 38%) and dining (4 to 7%). Outdoor microenvironment shared highly in Tianjin with 6%, whereas in-office contributed from 2-3% for all cities. High LCR estimations found in developing countries highlighted the greater cancer risk caused by BD in other cities without available measurement data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Coordination of bidding strategies in day-ahead energy and spinning reserve markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fushuan Wen; David, A.K.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, the problem of building optimally coordinated bidding strategies for competitive suppliers in day-ahead energy and spinning reserve markets is addressed. It is assumed that each supplier bids 24 linear energy supply functions and 24 linear spinning reserve supply functions, one for each hour, into the energy and spinning reserve markets, respectively, and each market is cleared separately and simultaneously for all the 24 delivery hours. Each supplier makes decisions on unit commitment and chooses the coefficients in the linear energy and spinning reserve supply functions to maximise total benefits, subject to expectations about how rival suppliers will bid in both markets. Two different bidding schemes have been suggested for each hour, and based on them an overall coordinated bidding strategy in the day-ahead energy and spinning reserve market is then developed. Stochastic optimisation models are first developed to describe these two different bidding schemes and a genetic algorithm (GA) is then used to build the optimally coordinated bidding strategies for each scheme and to develop an overall bidding strategy for the day-ahead energy and spinning reserve markets. A numerical example is utilised to illustrate the essential features of the method. (Author)

  4. Optimal design of compact and connected nature reserves for multiple species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yicheng; Önal, Hayri

    2016-04-01

    When designing a conservation reserve system for multiple species, spatial attributes of the reserves must be taken into account at species level. The existing optimal reserve design literature considers either one spatial attribute or when multiple attributes are considered the analysis is restricted only to one species. We built a linear integer programing model that incorporates compactness and connectivity of the landscape reserved for multiple species. The model identifies multiple reserves that each serve a subset of target species with a specified coverage probability threshold to ensure the species' long-term survival in the reserve, and each target species is covered (protected) with another probability threshold at the reserve system level. We modeled compactness by minimizing the total distance between selected sites and central sites, and we modeled connectivity of a selected site to its designated central site by selecting at least one of its adjacent sites that has a nearer distance to the central site. We considered structural distance and functional distances that incorporated site quality between sites. We tested the model using randomly generated data on 2 species, one ground species that required structural connectivity and the other an avian species that required functional connectivity. We applied the model to 10 bird species listed as endangered by the state of Illinois (U.S.A.). Spatial coherence and selection cost of the reserves differed substantially depending on the weights assigned to these 2 criteria. The model can be used to design a reserve system for multiple species, especially species whose habitats are far apart in which case multiple disjunct but compact and connected reserves are advantageous. The model can be modified to increase or decrease the distance between reserves to reduce or promote population connectivity. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  5. A differential absorption technique to estimate atmospheric total water vapor amounts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frouin, Robert; Middleton, Elizabeth

    1990-01-01

    Vertically integrated water-vapor amounts can be remotely determined by measuring the solar radiance reflected by the earth's surface with satellites or aircraft-based instruments. The technique is based on the method by Fowle (1912, 1913) and utilizes the 0.940-micron water-vapor band to retrieve total-water-vapor data that is independent of surface reflectance properties and other atmospheric constituents. A channel combination is proposed to provide more accurate results, the SE-590 spectrometer is used to verify the data, and the effects of atmospheric photon backscattering is examined. The spectrometer and radiosonde data confirm the accuracy of using a narrow and a wide channel centered on the same wavelength to determine water vapor amounts. The technique is suitable for cloudless conditions and can contribute to atmospheric corrections of land-surface parameters.

  6. Do group-specific equations provide the best estimates of stature?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albanese, John; Osley, Stephanie E; Tuck, Andrew

    2016-04-01

    An estimate of stature can be used by a forensic anthropologist with the preliminary identification of an unknown individual when human skeletal remains are recovered. Fordisc is a computer application that can be used to estimate stature; like many other methods it requires the user to assign an unknown individual to a specific group defined by sex, race/ancestry, and century of birth before an equation is applied. The assumption is that a group-specific equation controls for group differences and should provide the best results most often. In this paper we assess the utility and benefits of using group-specific equations to estimate stature using Fordisc. Using the maximum length of the humerus and the maximum length of the femur from individuals with documented stature, we address the question: Do sex-, race/ancestry- and century-specific stature equations provide the best results when estimating stature? The data for our sample of 19th Century White males (n=28) were entered into Fordisc and stature was estimated using 22 different equation options for a total of 616 trials: 19th and 20th Century Black males, 19th and 20th Century Black females, 19th and 20th Century White females, 19th and 20th Century White males, 19th and 20th Century any, and 20th Century Hispanic males. The equations were assessed for utility in any one case (how many times the estimated range bracketed the documented stature) and in aggregate using 1-way ANOVA and other approaches. This group-specific equation that should have provided the best results was outperformed by several other equations for both the femur and humerus. These results suggest that group-specific equations do not provide better results for estimating stature while at the same time are more difficult to apply because an unknown must be allocated to a given group before stature can be estimated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. HYDROCARBONS RESERVES IN VENEZUELA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez Cruz, D.J.

    2007-07-01

    Venezuela is an important player in the energy world, because of its hydrocarbons reserves. The process for calculating oil and associated gas reserves is described bearing in mind that 90% of the gas reserves of Venezuela are associated to oil. Likewise, an analysis is made of the oil reserves figures from 1975 to 2003. Reference is also made to inconsistencies found by international experts and the explanations offered in this respect by the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum (MENPET) and Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) regarding the changes that took place in the 1980s. In turn, Hubbert's Law is explained to determine peak production of conventional oil that a reservoir or field will reach, as well as its relationship with remaining reserves. Emphasis is placed on the interest of the United Nations on this topic. The reserves of associated gas are presented along with their relationship with the different crude oils that are produced and with injected gas, as well as with respect to the possible changes that would take place in the latter if oil reserves are revised. Some recommendations are submitted so that the MENPET starts preparing the pertinent policies ruling reserves. (auth)

  8. Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE): 2010 Highlights

    Science.gov (United States)

    US Census Bureau, 2011

    2011-01-01

    This document presents 2010 data from the Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) program of the U.S. Census Bureau. The SAIPE program produces poverty estimates for the total population and median household income estimates annually for all counties and states. SAIPE data also produces single-year poverty estimates for the school-age…

  9. Comparison of anti-mullerian hormone and antral follicle count for assessment of ovarian reserve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonal Panchal

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: This study aims to compare the efficacy of AFC and AMH, as markers for ovarian reserve. Materials and Methods: 75 patients with PCO (polycystic ovaries undergoing IVF were randomized with 75 non-PCO patients. On day 3, volume of ovary was acquired, ovarian volume was defined by VOCAL, and Sono AVC was used to count the number of antral follicles. Sum total of antral follicles in both ovaries was taken as total antral follicle count (AFC. AMH was measured on the same day. Long agonist protocol with recombinant FSH (rFSH was used for IVF stimulation till at least two follicles of 18 mm were seen. hCG 10,000 iu was given and ovum pick up was done after 34-35 h. Primary end point was number of follicles >12 mm seen on day of hCG. Final end point was number of ova retrieved on ovum pick up. Correlation of AFC and AMH was checked for both end points and with each other. Results: Correlation of AFC and follicles >12 mm on day of hCG in PCO group is 0.56 and non-PCO group is 0.63, 1 and for AMH and follicles >12 mm on day of hCG in PCO group is 0.42 and non-PCO group is 0.47. Correlation of AFC with number of ova retrieved on OPU in PCO group is 0.44 and for non-PCO group is 0.50. The value for AMH is 0.39 in PCO and 0.43 for non-PCO group. Comparing correlation of AFC and AMH for primary end point in PCO group has ′z′ value 1.11(onetailed significance 0.1335, twotailed significance 0.267 and in non-PCO group comparison shows a ′z′ value of 1.39 (one tailed significance 0.0823, two-tailed significance 0.1645. Therefore in both groups, AFC and AMH correlates with total number of follicles >12 mm on day of hCG, but both AFC and AMH have independent significance. Comparing correlation of AFC and AMH with number of ova retrieved on OPU, in non-PCO group has ′z′ value of 0.54(one tailed 0.2946, two-tailed 0. 5892. In PCO group, this comparison shows, ′z′ value of 0.36(one tailed 0.3594, two tailed 0.7188. Conclusion: AFC and AMH

  10. Global analysis of approaches for deriving total water storage changes from GRACE satellites and implications for groundwater storage change estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, D.; Scanlon, B. R.; Longuevergne, L.; Chen, X.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing interest in use of GRACE satellites and a variety of new products to monitor changes in total water storage (TWS) underscores the need to assess the reliability of output from different products. The objective of this study was to assess skills and uncertainties of different approaches for processing GRACE data to restore signal losses caused by spatial filtering based on analysis of 1°×1° grid scale data and basin scale data in 60 river basins globally. Results indicate that scaling factors from six land surface models (LSMs), including four models from GLDAS-1 (Noah 2.7, Mosaic, VIC, and CLM 2.0), CLM 4.0, and WGHM, are similar over most humid, sub-humid, and high-latitude regions but can differ by up to 100% over arid and semi-arid basins and areas with intensive irrigation. Large differences in TWS anomalies from three processing approaches (scaling factor, additive, and multiplicative corrections) were found in arid and semi-arid regions, areas with intensive irrigation, and relatively small basins (e.g., ≤ 200,000 km2). Furthermore, TWS anomaly products from gridded data with CLM4.0 scaling factors and the additive correction approach more closely agree with WGHM output than the multiplicative correction approach. Estimation of groundwater storage changes using GRACE satellites requires caution in selecting an appropriate approach for restoring TWS changes. A priori ground-based data used in forward modeling can provide a powerful tool for explaining the distribution of signal gains or losses caused by low-pass filtering in specific regions of interest and should be very useful for more reliable estimation of groundwater storage changes using GRACE satellites.

  11. US uranium reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, M.V.

    1981-01-01

    The current low level of demand, compounded by rapidly rising costs and low prices, has caused a significant reduction in drilling for uranium in the United States, and the trend is likely to continue for a few more years. The effect on uranium reserves will be fewer additions to reserves because less exploration is being done. Further reductions will occur, especially in low-cost reserves, because of increasing costs, continuing depletion through production, and erosion through the high grading of deposits to fulfill previous contractual