Estimation of Total Glomerular Number Using an Integrated Disector Method in Embryonic and Postnatal Kidneys

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michel G Arsenault

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Congenital Anomalies of the Kidney and Urinary Tract (CAKUT are a polymorphic group of clinical disorders comprising the major cause of renal failure in children. Included within CAKUT is a wide spectrum of developmental malformations ranging from renal agenesis, renal hypoplasia and renal dysplasia (maldifferentiation of renal tissue, each characterized by varying deficits in nephron number. First presented in the Brenner Hypothesis, low congenital nephron endowment is becoming recognized as an antecedent cause of adult-onset hypertension, a leading cause of coronary heart disease, stroke, and renal failure in North America. Genetic mouse models of impaired nephrogenesis and nephron endowment provide a critical framework for understanding the origins of human kidney disease. Current methods to quantitate nephron number include (i acid maceration (ii estimation of nephron number from a small number of tissue sections (iii imaging modalities such as MRI and (iv the gold standard physical disector/fractionator method. Despite its accuracy, the physical disector/fractionator method is rarely employed because it is labour-intensive, time-consuming and costly to perform. Consequently, less rigourous methods of nephron estimation are routinely employed by many laboratories. Here we present an updated, digitized version of the physical disector/fractionator method using free open source Fiji software, which we have termed the integrated disector method. This updated version of the gold standard modality accurately, rapidly and cost-effectively quantitates nephron number in embryonic and post-natal mouse kidneys, and can be easily adapted for stereological measurements in other organ systems.

Criticality accident in uranium fuel processing plant. The estimation of the total number of fissions with related reactor physics parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nishina, Kojiro; Oyamatsu, Kazuhiro; Kondo, Shunsuke; Sekimoto, Hiroshi; Ishitani, Kazuki; Yamane, Yoshihiro; Miyoshi, Yoshinori

2000-01-01

This accident occurred when workers were pouring a uranium solution into a precipitation tank with handy operation against the established procedure and both the cylindrical diameter and the total mass exceeded the limited values. As a result, nuclear fission chain reactor in the solution reached not only a 'criticality' state continuing it independently but also an instantly forming criticality state exceed the criticality and increasing further nuclear fission number. The place occurring the accident at this time was not reactor but a place having not to form 'criticality' called by a processing process of uranium fuel. In such place, as because of relating to mechanism of chain reaction, it is required naturally for knowledge on the reactor physics, it is also necessary to understand chemical reaction in chemical process, and functions of tanks, valves and pumps mounted at the processes. For this purpose, some information on uranium concentration ratio, atomic density of nuclides largely affecting to chain reaction such as uranium, hydrogen, and so forth in the solution, shape, inner structure and size of container for the solution, and its temperature and total volume, were necessary for determining criticality volume of the accident uranium solution by using nuclear physics procedures. Here were described on estimation of energy emission in the JCO accident, estimation from analytical results on neutron and solution, calculation of various nuclear physics property estimation on the JCO precipitation tank at JAERI. (G.K.)

Total dominator chromatic number of a graph

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adel P. Kazemi

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Given a graph $G$, the total dominator coloring problem seeks a proper coloring of $G$ with the additional property that every vertex in the graph is adjacent to all vertices of a color class. We seek to minimize the number of color classes. We initiate to study this problem on several classes of graphs, as well as finding general bounds and characterizations. We also compare the total dominator chromatic number of a graph with the chromatic number and the total domination number of it.

Estimating passenger numbers in trains using existing weighing capabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Bo Friis; Frølich, Laura; Nielsen, Otto Anker

2013-01-01

trains to control braking. This technique makes passenger counting cheaper and ensures a complete sample. The paper compares numbers estimated by this technique with manual counts and counts from an infrared system in trains in urban Copenhagen. It shows that the weighing system provides more accurate......Knowing passenger numbers is important for the planning and operation of the urban rail systems. Manual and electronic counting systems (typically infrared or video) are expensive and therefore entail small sample sizes. They usually count boarding and alighting passengers, which means that errors...... in estimates of total numbers of passengers propagate along train runs. Counting errors in manual and electronic counting systems are typically flow-dependent, making uncertainty a function of volume. This paper presents a new counting technique that exploits the weighing systems installed in most modern...

Total regional and global number of synapses in the human brain neocortex

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tang, Y.; Nyengaard, J.R.; Groot, D.M.G. de; Jorgen, H.; Gundersen, G.

2001-01-01

An estimator of the total number of synapses in neocortex of human autopsy brains based on unbiased stereological principles is described. Each randomly chosen cerebral hemisphere was stratified into the four major neocortical regions. Uniform sampling with a varying sampling fraction in each region

An Estimate Of The Number Of Tropical Tree Species.

OpenAIRE

Slik, J W Ferry; Arroyo-Rodríguez, Víctor; Aiba, Shin-Ichiro; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Alves, Luciana F; Ashton, Peter; Balvanera, Patricia; Bastian, Meredith L; Bellingham, Peter J; van den Berg, Eduardo; Bernacci, Luis; da Conceição Bispo, Polyanna; Blanc, Lilian; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Boeckx, Pascal

2016-01-01

The high species richness of tropical forests has long been recognized, yet there remains substantial uncertainty regarding the actual number of tropical tree species. Using a pantropical tree inventory database from closed canopy forests, consisting of 657,630 trees belonging to 11,371 species, we use a fitted value of Fisher's alpha and an approximate pantropical stem total to estimate the minimum number of tropical forest tree species to fall between similar to 40,000 and similar to 53,000...

The effects of black garlic ethanol extract on the spatial memory and estimated total number of pyramidal cells of the hippocampus of monosodium glutamate-exposed adolescent male Wistar rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Hermawati, Ery; Sari, Dwi Cahyani Ratna; Partadiredja, Ginus

2015-09-01

Monosodium glutamate (MSG) is believed to exert deleterious effects on various organs, including the hippocampus, likely via the oxidative stress pathway. Garlic (Alium sativum L.), which is considered to possess potent antioxidant activity, has been used as traditional remedy for various ailments since ancient times. We have investigated the effects of black garlic, a fermented form of garlic, on spatial memory and estimated the total number of pyramidal cells of the hippocampus in adolescent male Wistar rats treated with MSG. Twenty-five rats were divided into five groups: C- group, which received normal saline; C+ group, which was exposed to 2 mg/g body weight (bw) of MSG; three treatment groups (T2.5, T5, T10), which were treated with black garlic extract (2.5, 5, 10 mg/200 g bw, respectively) and MSG. The spatial memory test was carried out using the Morris water maze (MWM) procedure, and the total number of pyramidal cells of the hippocampus was estimated using the physical disector design. The groups treated with black garlic extract were found to have a shorter path length than the C- and C+ groups in the escape acquisition phase of the MWM test. The estimated total number of pyramidal cells in the CA1 region of the hippocampus was higher in all treated groups than that of the C+ group. Based on these results, we conclude that combined administration of black garlic and MSG may alter the spatial memory functioning and total number of pyramidal neurons of the CA1 region of the hippocampus of rats.

An estimate of the number of tropical tree species

Science.gov (United States)

Slik, J. W. Ferry; Arroyo-Rodríguez, Víctor; Aiba, Shin-Ichiro; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Alves, Luciana F.; Ashton, Peter; Balvanera, Patricia; Bastian, Meredith L.; Bellingham, Peter J.; van den Berg, Eduardo; Bernacci, Luis; da Conceição Bispo, Polyanna; Blanc, Lilian; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Boeckx, Pascal; Bongers, Frans; Boyle, Brad; Bradford, Matt; Brearley, Francis Q.; Breuer-Ndoundou Hockemba, Mireille; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Calderado Leal Matos, Darley; Castillo-Santiago, Miguel; Catharino, Eduardo L. M.; Chai, Shauna-Lee; Chen, Yukai; Colwell, Robert K.; Chazdon, Robin L.; Clark, Connie; Clark, David B.; Clark, Deborah A.; Culmsee, Heike; Damas, Kipiro; Dattaraja, Handanakere S.; Dauby, Gilles; Davidar, Priya; DeWalt, Saara J.; Doucet, Jean-Louis; Duque, Alvaro; Durigan, Giselda; Eichhorn, Karl A. O.; Eisenlohr, Pedro V.; Eler, Eduardo; Ewango, Corneille; Farwig, Nina; Feeley, Kenneth J.; Ferreira, Leandro; Field, Richard; de Oliveira Filho, Ary T.; Fletcher, Christine; Forshed, Olle; Franco, Geraldo; Fredriksson, Gabriella; Gillespie, Thomas; Gillet, Jean-François; Amarnath, Giriraj; Griffith, Daniel M.; Grogan, James; Gunatilleke, Nimal; Harris, David; Harrison, Rhett; Hector, Andy; Homeier, Jürgen; Imai, Nobuo; Itoh, Akira; Jansen, Patrick A.; Joly, Carlos A.; de Jong, Bernardus H. J.; Kartawinata, Kuswata; Kearsley, Elizabeth; Kelly, Daniel L.; Kenfack, David; Kessler, Michael; Kitayama, Kanehiro; Kooyman, Robert; Larney, Eileen; Laumonier, Yves; Laurance, Susan; Laurance, William F.; Lawes, Michael J.; do Amaral, Ieda Leao; Letcher, Susan G.; Lindsell, Jeremy; Lu, Xinghui; Mansor, Asyraf; Marjokorpi, Antti; Martin, Emanuel H.; Meilby, Henrik; Melo, Felipe P. L.; Metcalfe, Daniel J.; Medjibe, Vincent P.; Metzger, Jean Paul; Millet, Jerome; Mohandass, D.; Montero, Juan C.; de Morisson Valeriano, Márcio; Mugerwa, Badru; Nagamasu, Hidetoshi; Nilus, Reuben; Ochoa-Gaona, Susana; Onrizal; Page, Navendu; Parolin, Pia; Parren, Marc; Parthasarathy, Narayanaswamy; Paudel, Ekananda; Permana, Andrea; Piedade, Maria T. F.; Pitman, Nigel C. A.; Poorter, Lourens; Poulsen, Axel D.; Poulsen, John; Powers, Jennifer; Prasad, Rama C.; Puyravaud, Jean-Philippe; Razafimahaimodison, Jean-Claude; Reitsma, Jan; dos Santos, João Roberto; Roberto Spironello, Wilson; Romero-Saltos, Hugo; Rovero, Francesco; Rozak, Andes Hamuraby; Ruokolainen, Kalle; Rutishauser, Ervan; Saiter, Felipe; Saner, Philippe; Santos, Braulio A.; Santos, Fernanda; Sarker, Swapan K.; Satdichanh, Manichanh; Schmitt, Christine B.; Schöngart, Jochen; Schulze, Mark; Suganuma, Marcio S.; Sheil, Douglas; da Silva Pinheiro, Eduardo; Sist, Plinio; Stevart, Tariq; Sukumar, Raman; Sun, I.-Fang; Sunderland, Terry; Suresh, H. S.; Suzuki, Eizi; Tabarelli, Marcelo; Tang, Jangwei; Targhetta, Natália; Theilade, Ida; Thomas, Duncan W.; Tchouto, Peguy; Hurtado, Johanna; Valencia, Renato; van Valkenburg, Johan L. C. H.; Van Do, Tran; Vasquez, Rodolfo; Verbeeck, Hans; Adekunle, Victor; Vieira, Simone A.; Webb, Campbell O.; Whitfeld, Timothy; Wich, Serge A.; Williams, John; Wittmann, Florian; Wöll, Hannsjoerg; Yang, Xiaobo; Adou Yao, C. Yves; Yap, Sandra L.; Yoneda, Tsuyoshi; Zahawi, Rakan A.; Zakaria, Rahmad; Zang, Runguo; de Assis, Rafael L.; Garcia Luize, Bruno; Venticinque, Eduardo M.

2015-01-01

The high species richness of tropical forests has long been recognized, yet there remains substantial uncertainty regarding the actual number of tropical tree species. Using a pantropical tree inventory database from closed canopy forests, consisting of 657,630 trees belonging to 11,371 species, we use a fitted value of Fisher’s alpha and an approximate pantropical stem total to estimate the minimum number of tropical forest tree species to fall between ∼40,000 and ∼53,000, i.e., at the high end of previous estimates. Contrary to common assumption, the Indo-Pacific region was found to be as species-rich as the Neotropics, with both regions having a minimum of ∼19,000–25,000 tree species. Continental Africa is relatively depauperate with a minimum of ∼4,500–6,000 tree species. Very few species are shared among the African, American, and the Indo-Pacific regions. We provide a methodological framework for estimating species richness in trees that may help refine species richness estimates of tree-dependent taxa. PMID:26034279

Application of the control variate technique to estimation of total sensitivity indices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kucherenko, S.; Delpuech, B.; Iooss, B.; Tarantola, S.

2015-01-01

Global sensitivity analysis is widely used in many areas of science, biology, sociology and policy planning. The variance-based methods also known as Sobol' sensitivity indices has become the method of choice among practitioners due to its efficiency and ease of interpretation. For complex practical problems, estimation of Sobol' sensitivity indices generally requires a large number of function evaluations to achieve reasonable convergence. To improve the efficiency of the Monte Carlo estimates for the Sobol' total sensitivity indices we apply the control variate reduction technique and develop a new formula for evaluation of total sensitivity indices. Presented results using well known test functions show the efficiency of the developed technique. - Highlights: • We analyse the efficiency of the Monte Carlo estimates of Sobol' sensitivity indices. • The control variate technique is applied for estimation of total sensitivity indices. • We develop a new formula for evaluation of Sobol' total sensitivity indices. • We present test results demonstrating the high efficiency of the developed formula

A reduced estimate of the number of kilometre-sized near-Earth asteroids.

Science.gov (United States)

Rabinowitz, D; Helin, E; Lawrence, K; Pravdo, S

2000-01-13

Near-Earth asteroids are small (diameters Earth (they come within 1.3 AU of the Sun). Most have a chance of approximately 0.5% of colliding with the Earth in the next million years. The total number of such bodies with diameters > 1 km has been estimated to be in the range 1,000-2,000, which translates to an approximately 1% chance of a catastrophic collision with the Earth in the next millennium. These numbers are, however, poorly constrained because of the limitations of previous searches using photographic plates. (One kilometre is below the size of a body whose impact on the Earth would produce global effects.) Here we report an analysis of our survey for near-Earth asteroids that uses improved detection technologies. We find that the total number of asteroids with diameters > 1 km is about half the earlier estimates. At the current rate of discovery of near-Earth asteroids, 90% will probably have been detected within the next 20 years.

[Estimation with the capture-recapture method of the number of economic immigrants in Mallorca].

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos Monserrat, M; March Cerdá, J C

2002-05-15

estimate the number of irregular economic immigrants in Mallorca. We used the capture-recapture method, an indirect method based on contrasts of data from two or more sources. Data were obtained from the Delegación de Gobierno (police and immigration authority), Comisiones Obreras (labor union), and institutions that provide health-related services to immigrants. Individuals were identified by birth date and country of origin. The total number of economic immigrants estimated with this method was 39 392. According to the Delegación de Gobierno data, the number of regular immigrants on the date of our inquiry was 9000. With the capture-recapture method, the number of irregular immigrants in Mallorca was therefore estimated at 30 000. The capture-recapture method can be useful to estimate the population of irregular immigrants in a given area at a given time, if sufficiently precise information on the identity of each individual can be obtained.

Observer variability in estimating numbers: An experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Erwin, R.M.

1982-01-01

Census estimates of bird populations provide an essential framework for a host of research and management questions. However, with some exceptions, the reliability of numerical estimates and the factors influencing them have received insufficient attention. Independent of the problems associated with habitat type, weather conditions, cryptic coloration, ete., estimates may vary widely due only to intrinsic differences in observers? abilities to estimate numbers. Lessons learned in the field of perceptual psychology may be usefully applied to 'real world' problems in field ornithology. Based largely on dot discrimination tests in the laboratory, it was found that numerical abundance, density of objects, spatial configuration, color, background, and other variables influence individual accuracy in estimating numbers. The primary purpose of the present experiment was to assess the effects of observer, prior experience, and numerical range on accuracy in estimating numbers of waterfowl from black-and-white photographs. By using photographs of animals rather than black dots, I felt the results could be applied more meaningfully to field situations. Further, reinforcement was provided throughout some experiments to examine the influence of training on accuracy.

More than 9,000,000 unique genes in human gut bacterial community: estimating gene numbers inside a human body.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Xing; Xie, Lu; Li, Yixue; Wei, Chaochun

2009-06-29

Estimating the number of genes in human genome has been long an important problem in computational biology. With the new conception of considering human as a super-organism, it is also interesting to estimate the number of genes in this human super-organism. We presented our estimation of gene numbers in the human gut bacterial community, the largest microbial community inside the human super-organism. We got 552,700 unique genes from 202 complete human gut bacteria genomes. Then, a novel gene counting model was built to check the total number of genes by combining culture-independent sequence data and those complete genomes. 16S rRNAs were used to construct a three-level tree and different counting methods were introduced for the three levels: strain-to-species, species-to-genus, and genus-and-up. The model estimates that the total number of genes is about 9,000,000 after those with identity percentage of 97% or up were merged. By combining completed genomes currently available and culture-independent sequencing data, we built a model to estimate the number of genes in human gut bacterial community. The total number of genes is estimated to be about 9 million. Although this number is huge, we believe it is underestimated. This is an initial step to tackle this gene counting problem for the human super-organism. It will still be an open problem in the near future. The list of genomes used in this paper can be found in the supplementary table.

Estimating recreational harvest using interview-based recall survey: Implication of recalling in weight or numbers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sparrevohn, Claus Reedtz

2013-01-01

on interviewed-based surveys where fishers are asked to recall harvest within a given timeframe. However, the importance of whether fishers are requested to provide figures in weight or number is unresolved. Therefore, a recall survey aiming at estimating recreational harvest was designed, such that respondents...... could report harvest using either weight or numbers. It was found that: (1) a preference for reporting in numbers dominated; (2) reported mean individual weight of fish caught, differed between units preferences; and (3) when an estimate of total harvest in weight are calculated, these difference could...

Estimated Number of Birds Killed by House Cats (Felis catus in Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Blancher

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Predation by house cats (Felis catus is one of the largest human-related sources of mortality for wild birds in the United States and elsewhere, and has been implicated in extinctions and population declines of several species. However, relatively little is known about this topic in Canada. The objectives of this study were to provide plausible estimates for the number of birds killed by house cats in Canada, identify information that would help improve those estimates, and identify species potentially vulnerable to population impacts. In total, cats are estimated to kill between 100 and 350 million birds per year in Canada (> 95% of estimates were in this range, with the majority likely to be killed by feral cats. This range of estimates is based on surveys indicating that Canadians own about 8.5 million pet cats, a rough approximation of 1.4 to 4.2 million feral cats, and literature values of predation rates from studies conducted elsewhere. Reliability of the total kill estimate would be improved most by better knowledge of feral cat numbers and diet in Canada, though any data on birds killed by cats in Canada would be helpful. These estimates suggest that 2-7% of birds in southern Canada are killed by cats per year. Even at the low end, predation by house cats is probably the largest human-related source of bird mortality in Canada. Many species of birds are potentially vulnerable to at least local population impacts in southern Canada, by virtue of nesting or feeding on or near ground level, and habitat choices that bring them into contact with human-dominated landscapes where cats are abundant. Because cat predation is likely to remain a primary source of bird mortality in Canada for some time, this issue needs more scientific attention in Canada.

Estimation of absolute microglial cell numbers in mouse fascia dentata using unbiased and efficient stereological cell counting principles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wirenfeldt, Martin; Dalmau, Ishar; Finsen, Bente

2003-01-01

Stereology offers a set of unbiased principles to obtain precise estimates of total cell numbers in a defined region. In terms of microglia, which in the traumatized and diseased CNS is an extremely dynamic cell population, the strength of stereology is that the resultant estimate is unaffected...... of microglia, although with this thickness, the intensity of the staining is too high to distinguish single cells. Lectin histochemistry does not visualize microglia throughout the section and, accordingly, is not suited for the optical fractionator. The mean total number of Mac-1+ microglial cells...... in the unilateral dentate gyrus of the normal young adult male C57BL/6 mouse was estimated to be 12,300 (coefficient of variation (CV)=0.13) with a mean coefficient of error (CE) of 0.06. The perspective of estimating microglial cell numbers using stereology is to establish a solid basis for studying the dynamics...

Estimation of Total Yearly CO2 Emissions by Wildfires in Mexico during the Period 1999–2010

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flor Bautista Vicente

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The phenomenon of wildfires became a global environmental problem which demands estimations of their CO2 emissions. Wildfires have deteriorated the air quality increasingly. Using available information on documented wildfires and a data set of satellite detected hot spots, total yearly emissions of CO2 in Mexico were estimated for the period 1999–2010. A map of the main vegetation groups was used to calculate total areas for every vegetation type. The yearly number of hot spots per vegetation type was calculated. Estimates of emitted CO2 in a wildfire were then accomplished by considering parameters such as: forest fuel load, vegetation type, burning efficiency, and mean burned area. The number of wildfires and total affected areas showed an annual variability. The yearly mean of affected area by a single wildfire varied between 0.2 and 0.3 km2. The total affected area during the period 1999 to 2010 was 86800 km2 which corresponds to 4.3% of the Mexican territory. Total CO2 emissions were approximately 112 Tg. The most affected vegetation types were forest and rainforest.

Estimating the total leaf area of the green dwarf coconut tree (Cocos nucifera L.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sousa Elias Fernandes de

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Leaf area has significant effect on tree transpiration, and its measurement is important to many study areas. This work aimed at developing a non-destructive, practical, and empirical method to estimate the total leaf area of green dwarf coconut palms (Cocos nucifera L. in plantations located at the northern region of Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil. A mathematical model was developed to estimate total leaf area values (TLA as function of the average lengths of the last three leaf raquis (LR3, and of the number of leaves in the canopy (NL. The model has satisfactory degree of accuracy for agricultural engineering purposes.

Model-based estimation of finite population total in stratified sampling

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The work presented in this paper concerns the estimation of finite population total under model – based framework. Nonparametric regression approach as a method of estimating finite population total is explored. The asymptotic properties of the estimators based on nonparametric regression are also developed under ...

Stereological quantification of tumor volume, mean nuclear volume and total number of melanoma cells correlated with morbidity and mortality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bønnelykke-Behrndtz, Marie Louise; Sørensen, Flemming Brandt; Damsgaard, Tine Engberg

2008-01-01

potential indicators of prognosis. Sixty patients who underwent surgery at the Department of Plastic Surgery, Aarhus University Hospital, from 1991 to 1994 were included in the study. Total tumor volume was estimated by the Cavalieri technique, total number of tumor cells by the optical dissector principle...... showed a significant impact on both disease-free survival (p=0.001) and mortality (p=0.009). In conclusion, tumor volume and total number of cancer cells were highly reproducible but did not add additional, independent prognostic information regarding the study population.......Stereological quantification of tumor volume, total number of tumor cells and mean nuclear volume provides unbiased data, regardless of the three-dimensional shape of the melanocytic lesion. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether these variables are reproducible and may represent...

Total numbers of neurons and glial cells in cortex and basal ganglia of aged brains with Down syndrome--a stereological study.

Science.gov (United States)

Karlsen, Anna Schou; Pakkenberg, Bente

2011-11-01

The total numbers of neurons and glial cells in the neocortex and basal ganglia in adults with Down syndrome (DS) were estimated with design-based stereological methods, providing quantitative data on brains affected by delayed development and accelerated aging. Cell numbers, volume of regions, and densities of neurons and glial cell subtypes were estimated in brains from 4 female DS subjects (mean age 66 years) and 6 female controls (mean age 70 years). The DS subjects were estimated to have about 40% fewer neocortical neurons in total (11.1 × 10(9) vs. 17.8 × 10(9), 2p ≤ 0.001) and almost 30% fewer neocortical glial cells with no overlap to controls (12.8 × 10(9) vs. 18.2 × 10(9), 2p = 0.004). In contrast, the total number of neurons in the basal ganglia was the same in the 2 groups, whereas the number of oligodendrocytes in the basal ganglia was reduced by almost 50% in DS (405 × 10(6) vs. 816 × 10(6), 2p = 0.01). We conclude that trisomy 21 affects cortical structures more than central gray matter emphasizing the differential impairment of brain development. Despite concomitant Alzheimer-like pathology, the neurodegenerative outcome in a DS brain deviates from common Alzheimer disease.

The impact of maternal separation on adult mouse behaviour and on the total neuron number in the mouse hippocampus

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fabricius, K.; Wörtwein, Gitta; Pakkenberg, B.

2008-01-01

, the number of errors made by the MS24 mice compared to controls and in total distance moved. The mice were subsequently sacrificed and the total number of neurons estimated in the hippocampus using the optical fractionator. We found a significant loss of neurons in the dentate gyrus in MS mice compared...... to controls. Apparently a single maternal separation can impact the number of neurons in mouse hippocampus either by a decrease of neurogenesis or as an increase in neuron apoptosis. This study is the first to assess the result of maternal separation combining behaviour and stereology Udgivelsesdato: 2008/2...

Estimated numbers of men and women infected with HIV/AIDS in Tijuana, Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Brouwer, Kimberly C; Strathdee, Steffanie A; Magis-Rodríguez, Carlos; Bravo-García, Enrique; Gayet, Cecilia; Patterson, Thomas L; Bertozzi, Stefano M; Hogg, Robert S

2006-03-01

Tijuana, Mexico, just south of San Diego, California, is located by the busiest land border crossing in the world. Although UNAIDS considers Mexico to be a country of "low prevalence, high risk," recent surveillance data among sentinel populations in Tijuana suggests HIV prevalence is increasing. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of men and women aged 15 to 49 years infected with HIV in Tijuana. Gender and age-specific estimates of the Tijuana population were obtained from the 2000 Mexican census. Population and HIV prevalence estimates for at-risk groups were obtained from published reports, community based studies, and data from the Centro Nacional para la Prevención y Control del VIH/SIDA (CENSIDA). Age-specific fertility rates for Mexico were used to derive the number of low and high-risk pregnant women. Numbers of HIV-positive men and women were estimated for each at-risk group and then aggregated. A high growth scenario based on current HIV prevalence and a conservative, low growth estimate were determined. A total of 686,600 men and women in Tijuana were aged 15 to 49 years at the time of the 2000 census. Considering both scenarios, the number of infected persons ranged from 1,803 to 5,472 (HIV prevalence: 0.26 to 0.80%). The majority of these persons were men (>70%). The largest number of infected persons were MSM (N = 1,146 to 3,300) and IDUs (N = 147 to 650). Our data suggest that up to one in every 125 persons aged 15-49 years in Tijuana is HIV-infected. Interventions to reduce ongoing spread of HIV are urgently needed.

Effect of survey design and catch rate estimation on total catch estimates in Chinook salmon fisheries

Science.gov (United States)

McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael C.; Schill, Daniel J.

2012-01-01

Roving–roving and roving–access creel surveys are the primary techniques used to obtain information on harvest of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in Idaho sport fisheries. Once interviews are conducted using roving–roving or roving–access survey designs, mean catch rate can be estimated with the ratio-of-means (ROM) estimator, the mean-of-ratios (MOR) estimator, or the MOR estimator with exclusion of short-duration (≤0.5 h) trips. Our objective was to examine the relative bias and precision of total catch estimates obtained from use of the two survey designs and three catch rate estimators for Idaho Chinook salmon fisheries. Information on angling populations was obtained by direct visual observation of portions of Chinook salmon fisheries in three Idaho river systems over an 18-d period. Based on data from the angling populations, Monte Carlo simulations were performed to evaluate the properties of the catch rate estimators and survey designs. Among the three estimators, the ROM estimator provided the most accurate and precise estimates of mean catch rate and total catch for both roving–roving and roving–access surveys. On average, the root mean square error of simulated total catch estimates was 1.42 times greater and relative bias was 160.13 times greater for roving–roving surveys than for roving–access surveys. Length-of-stay bias and nonstationary catch rates in roving–roving surveys both appeared to affect catch rate and total catch estimates. Our results suggest that use of the ROM estimator in combination with an estimate of angler effort provided the least biased and most precise estimates of total catch for both survey designs. However, roving–access surveys were more accurate than roving–roving surveys for Chinook salmon fisheries in Idaho.

Changes in total cell numbers of the basal ganglia in patients with multiple system atrophy - A stereological study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Salvesen, Lisette; Ullerup, Birgitte H; Sunay, Fatma B

2014-01-01

Total numbers of neurons, oligodendrocytes, astrocytes, and microglia in the basal ganglia and red nucleus were estimated in brains from 11 patients with multiple system atrophy (MSA) and 11 age- and gender-matched control subjects with unbiased stereological methods. Compared to the control...

[Dual process in large number estimation under uncertainty].

Science.gov (United States)

Matsumuro, Miki; Miwa, Kazuhisa; Terai, Hitoshi; Yamada, Kento

2016-08-01

According to dual process theory, there are two systems in the mind: an intuitive and automatic System 1 and a logical and effortful System 2. While many previous studies about number estimation have focused on simple heuristics and automatic processes, the deliberative System 2 process has not been sufficiently studied. This study focused on the System 2 process for large number estimation. First, we described an estimation process based on participants’ verbal reports. The task, corresponding to the problem-solving process, consisted of creating subgoals, retrieving values, and applying operations. Second, we investigated the influence of such deliberative process by System 2 on intuitive estimation by System 1, using anchoring effects. The results of the experiment showed that the System 2 process could mitigate anchoring effects.

Estimating reproduction numbers for adults and children from case data

Science.gov (United States)

Glass, K.; Mercer, G. N.; Nishiura, H.; McBryde, E. S.; Becker, N. G.

2011-01-01

We present a method for estimating reproduction numbers for adults and children from daily onset data, using pandemic influenza A(H1N1) data as a case study. We investigate the impact of different underlying transmission assumptions on our estimates, and identify that asymmetric reproduction matrices are often appropriate. Under-reporting of cases can bias estimates of the reproduction numbers if reporting rates are not equal across the two age groups. However, we demonstrate that the estimate of the higher reproduction number is robust to disproportionate data-thinning. Applying the method to 2009 pandemic influenza H1N1 data from Japan, we demonstrate that the reproduction number for children was considerably higher than that of adults, and that our estimates are insensitive to our choice of reproduction matrix. PMID:21345858

The use of bioelectrical impedance analysis to estimate total body water in young children with cerebral palsy.

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Kristie L; Boyd, Roslyn N; Walker, Jacqueline L; Stevenson, Richard D; Davies, Peter S W

2013-08-01

Body composition assessment is an essential component of nutritional evaluation in children with cerebral palsy. This study aimed to validate bioelectrical impedance to estimate total body water in young children with cerebral palsy and determine best electrode placement in unilateral impairment. 55 young children with cerebral palsy across all functional ability levels were included. Height/length was measured or estimated from knee height. Total body water was estimated using a Bodystat 1500MDD and three equations, and measured using the gold standard, deuterium dilution technique. Comparisons were made using Bland Altman analysis. For children with bilateral impairment, the Fjeld equation estimated total body water with the least bias (limits of agreement): 0.0 L (-1.4 L to 1.5 L); the Pencharz equation produced the greatest: 2.7 L (0.6 L-4.8 L). For children with unilateral impairment, differences between measured and estimated total body water were lowest on the unimpaired side using the Fjeld equation 0.1 L (-1.5 L to 1.6 L)) and greatest for the Pencharz equation. The ability of bioelectrical impedance to estimate total body water depends on the equation chosen. The Fjeld equation was the most accurate for the group, however, individual results varied by up to 18%. A population specific equation was developed and may enhance the accuracy of estimates. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) number: ACTRN12611000616976. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

False high level in total bilirubin estimation in nonicteric serum

African Journals Online (AJOL)

estimation of total bilirubin by DiaSys and Randox reagents along with simultaneous re-estimation by Roche reagents in ... been used mainly due to slightly lower cost in ... MATERIALS AND METHODS ... air-conditioned laboratory overnight. ..... Elevated IgG causing spurious elevation in serum total bilirubin assay. Asia.

Estimation of curve number by DAWAST model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Tai Cheol; Park, Seung Ki; Moon, Jong Pil [Chungnam National University, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

1997-10-31

It is one of the most important factors to determine the effective rainfall for estimation of flood hydrograph in design schedule. SCS curve number (CN) method has been frequently used to estimate the effective rainfall of synthesized design flood hydrograph for hydraulic structures. But, it should be cautious to apply SCS-CN originally developed in U.S.A to watersheds in Korea, because characteristics of watersheds in Korea and cropping patterns especially like a paddy land cultivation are quite different from those in USA. New CN method has been introduced. Maximum storage capacity which was herein defined as U{sub max} can be calibrated from the stream flow data and converted to new CN-I of driest condition of soil moisture in the given watershed. Effective rainfall for design flood hydrograph can be estimated by the curve number developed in the watersheds in Korea. (author). 14 refs., 5 tabs., 3 figs.

PFP total operating efficiency calculation and basis of estimate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

SINCLAIR, J.C.

1999-01-01

The purpose of the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) Total Operating Efficiency Calculation and Basis of Estimate document is to provide the calculated value and basis of estimate for the Total Operating Efficiency (TOE) for the material stabilization operations to be conducted in 234-52 Building. This information will be used to support both the planning and execution of the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) Stabilization and Deactivation Project's (hereafter called the Project) resource-loaded, integrated schedule

A Group Contribution Method for Estimating Cetane and Octane Numbers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kubic, William Louis [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Process Modeling and Analysis Group

2016-07-28

Much of the research on advanced biofuels is devoted to the study of novel chemical pathways for converting nonfood biomass into liquid fuels that can be blended with existing transportation fuels. Many compounds under consideration are not found in the existing fuel supplies. Often, the physical properties needed to assess the viability of a potential biofuel are not available. The only reliable information available may be the molecular structure. Group contribution methods for estimating physical properties from molecular structure have been used for more than 60 years. The most common application is estimation of thermodynamic properties. More recently, group contribution methods have been developed for estimating rate dependent properties including cetane and octane numbers. Often, published group contribution methods are limited in terms of types of function groups and range of applicability. In this study, a new, broadly-applicable group contribution method based on an artificial neural network was developed to estimate cetane number research octane number, and motor octane numbers of hydrocarbons and oxygenated hydrocarbons. The new method is more accurate over a greater range molecular weights and structural complexity than existing group contribution methods for estimating cetane and octane numbers.

Estimates of the Tempo-adjusted Total Fertility Rate in Western and Eastern Germany, 1955-2008

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marc Luy

2011-09-01

Full Text Available In this article we present estimates of the tempo-adjusted total fertility rate in Western and Eastern Germany from 1955 to 2008. Tempo adjustment of the total fertility rate (TFR requires data on the annual number of births by parity and age of the mother. Since official statistics do not provide such data for West Germany as well as Eastern Germany from 1990 on we used alternative data sources which include these specific characteristics. The combined picture of conventional TFR and tempo-adjusted TFR* provides interesting information about the trends in period fertility in Western and Eastern Germany, above all with regard to the differences between the two regions and the enormous extent of tempo effects in Eastern Germany during the 1990s. Compared to corresponding data for populations from other countries, our estimates of the tempo-adjusted TFR* for Eastern and Western Germany show plausible trends. Nevertheless, it is important to note that the estimates of the tempo-adjusted total fertility rate presented in this paper should not be seen as being on the level of or equivalent to official statistics since they are based on different kinds of data with different degrees of quality.

Exploratory graph analysis: A new approach for estimating the number of dimensions in psychological research.

Science.gov (United States)

Golino, Hudson F; Epskamp, Sacha

2017-01-01

The estimation of the correct number of dimensions is a long-standing problem in psychometrics. Several methods have been proposed, such as parallel analysis (PA), Kaiser-Guttman's eigenvalue-greater-than-one rule, multiple average partial procedure (MAP), the maximum-likelihood approaches that use fit indexes as BIC and EBIC and the less used and studied approach called very simple structure (VSS). In the present paper a new approach to estimate the number of dimensions will be introduced and compared via simulation to the traditional techniques pointed above. The approach proposed in the current paper is called exploratory graph analysis (EGA), since it is based on the graphical lasso with the regularization parameter specified using EBIC. The number of dimensions is verified using the walktrap, a random walk algorithm used to identify communities in networks. In total, 32,000 data sets were simulated to fit known factor structures, with the data sets varying across different criteria: number of factors (2 and 4), number of items (5 and 10), sample size (100, 500, 1000 and 5000) and correlation between factors (orthogonal, .20, .50 and .70), resulting in 64 different conditions. For each condition, 500 data sets were simulated using lavaan. The result shows that the EGA performs comparable to parallel analysis, EBIC, eBIC and to Kaiser-Guttman rule in a number of situations, especially when the number of factors was two. However, EGA was the only technique able to correctly estimate the number of dimensions in the four-factor structure when the correlation between factors were .7, showing an accuracy of 100% for a sample size of 5,000 observations. Finally, the EGA was used to estimate the number of factors in a real dataset, in order to compare its performance with the other six techniques tested in the simulation study.

Can genetic estimators provide robust estimates of the effective number of breeders in small populations?

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Marion Hoehn

Full Text Available The effective population size (N(e is proportional to the loss of genetic diversity and the rate of inbreeding, and its accurate estimation is crucial for the monitoring of small populations. Here, we integrate temporal studies of the gecko Oedura reticulata, to compare genetic and demographic estimators of N(e. Because geckos have overlapping generations, our goal was to demographically estimate N(bI, the inbreeding effective number of breeders and to calculate the N(bI/N(a ratio (N(a =number of adults for four populations. Demographically estimated N(bI ranged from 1 to 65 individuals. The mean reduction in the effective number of breeders relative to census size (N(bI/N(a was 0.1 to 1.1. We identified the variance in reproductive success as the most important variable contributing to reduction of this ratio. We used four methods to estimate the genetic based inbreeding effective number of breeders N(bI(gen and the variance effective populations size N(eV(gen estimates from the genotype data. Two of these methods - a temporal moment-based (MBT and a likelihood-based approach (TM3 require at least two samples in time, while the other two were single-sample estimators - the linkage disequilibrium method with bias correction LDNe and the program ONeSAMP. The genetic based estimates were fairly similar across methods and also similar to the demographic estimates excluding those estimates, in which upper confidence interval boundaries were uninformative. For example, LDNe and ONeSAMP estimates ranged from 14-55 and 24-48 individuals, respectively. However, temporal methods suffered from a large variation in confidence intervals and concerns about the prior information. We conclude that the single-sample estimators are an acceptable short-cut to estimate N(bI for species such as geckos and will be of great importance for the monitoring of species in fragmented landscapes.

Consistency of Trend Break Point Estimator with Underspecified Break Number

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jingjing Yang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses the consistency of trend break point estimators when the number of breaks is underspecified. The consistency of break point estimators in a simple location model with level shifts has been well documented by researchers under various settings, including extensions such as allowing a time trend in the model. Despite the consistency of break point estimators of level shifts, there are few papers on the consistency of trend shift break point estimators in the presence of an underspecified break number. The simulation study and asymptotic analysis in this paper show that the trend shift break point estimator does not converge to the true break points when the break number is underspecified. In the case of two trend shifts, the inconsistency problem worsens if the magnitudes of the breaks are similar and the breaks are either both positive or both negative. The limiting distribution for the trend break point estimator is developed and closely approximates the finite sample performance.

Number Line Estimation Predicts Mathematical Skills: Difference in Grades 2 and 4

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Meixia Zhu

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Studies have shown that number line estimation is important for learning. However, it is yet unclear if number line estimation predicts different mathematical skills in different grades after controlling for age, non-verbal cognitive ability, attention, and working memory. The purpose of this study was to examine the role of number line estimation on two mathematical skills (calculation fluency and math problem-solving in grade 2 and grade 4. One hundred and forty-eight children from Shanghai, China were assessed on measures of number line estimation, non-verbal cognitive ability (non-verbal matrices, working memory (N-back, attention (expressive attention, and mathematical skills (calculation fluency and math problem-solving. The results showed that in grade 2, number line estimation correlated significantly with calculation fluency (r = -0.27, p < 0.05 and math problem-solving (r = -0.52, p < 0.01. In grade 4, number line estimation correlated significantly with math problem-solving (r = -0.38, p < 0.01, but not with calculation fluency. Regression analyses indicated that in grade 2, number line estimation accounted for unique variance in math problem-solving (12.0% and calculation fluency (4.0% after controlling for the effects of age, non-verbal cognitive ability, attention, and working memory. In grade 4, number line estimation accounted for unique variance in math problem-solving (9.0% but not in calculation fluency. These findings suggested that number line estimation had an important role in math problem-solving for both grades 2 and 4 children and in calculation fluency for grade 2 children. We concluded that number line estimation could be a useful indicator for teachers to identify and improve children’s mathematical skills.

Universal dependence of the total number albedo of photons on the mean number of photon scatterings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ljubenov Vladan L.

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the results of research on photon reflection from plane targets based on Monte Carlo simulations performed by the MCNP code. Five materials (water, concrete, aluminum, iron, and copper are examined in the area of initial photon energies of up to 200 keV. The values of the total number albedo for photons dependent on the initial photon energy or the mean number of photon scatterings are calculated and graphically presented. We have shown that the values of the total number albedo for different target materials, expressed as a function of the mean number of photon scatterings, are in good agreement with each other and can be approximated by simple, universal analytic functions obtained by the least squares method. The accuracy of these analytic appoximations is confirmed by their comparison with the results of PENELOPE and FOTELP Monte Carlo codes.

Number Line Estimation Predicts Mathematical Skills: Difference in Grades 2 and 4.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Meixia; Cai, Dan; Leung, Ada W S

2017-01-01

Studies have shown that number line estimation is important for learning. However, it is yet unclear if number line estimation predicts different mathematical skills in different grades after controlling for age, non-verbal cognitive ability, attention, and working memory. The purpose of this study was to examine the role of number line estimation on two mathematical skills (calculation fluency and math problem-solving) in grade 2 and grade 4. One hundred and forty-eight children from Shanghai, China were assessed on measures of number line estimation, non-verbal cognitive ability (non-verbal matrices), working memory (N-back), attention (expressive attention), and mathematical skills (calculation fluency and math problem-solving). The results showed that in grade 2, number line estimation correlated significantly with calculation fluency ( r = -0.27, p problem-solving ( r = -0.52, p problem-solving ( r = -0.38, p problem-solving (12.0%) and calculation fluency (4.0%) after controlling for the effects of age, non-verbal cognitive ability, attention, and working memory. In grade 4, number line estimation accounted for unique variance in math problem-solving (9.0%) but not in calculation fluency. These findings suggested that number line estimation had an important role in math problem-solving for both grades 2 and 4 children and in calculation fluency for grade 2 children. We concluded that number line estimation could be a useful indicator for teachers to identify and improve children's mathematical skills.

Estimation of Total Tree Height from Renewable Resources Evaluation Data

Science.gov (United States)

Charles E. Thomas

1981-01-01

Many ecological, biological, and genetic studies use the measurement of total tree height. Until recently, the Southern Forest Experiment Station's inventory procedures through Renewable Resources Evaluation (RRE) have not included total height measurements. This note provides equations to estimate total height based on other RRE measurements.

An Estimation Method for number of carrier frequency

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiong Peng

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a method that utilizes AR model power spectrum estimation based on Burg algorithm to estimate the number of carrier frequency in single pulse. In the modern electronic and information warfare, the pulse signal form of radar is complex and changeable, among which single pulse with multi-carrier frequencies is the most typical one, such as the frequency shift keying (FSK signal, the frequency shift keying with linear frequency (FSK-LFM hybrid modulation signal and the frequency shift keying with bi-phase shift keying (FSK-BPSK hybrid modulation signal. In view of this kind of single pulse which has multi-carrier frequencies, this paper adopts a method which transforms the complex signal into AR model, then takes power spectrum based on Burg algorithm to show the effect. Experimental results show that the estimation method still can determine the number of carrier frequencies accurately even when the signal noise ratio (SNR is very low.

ESTIMATION OF THE NUMBER OF NEURONS IN THE HIPPOCAMPUS OF RATS WITH PENICILLIN INDUCED EPILEPSY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ilgaz Akdogan

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Epilepsy is a neurological disease arising from strong and uncontrollable electrical firings of a group of neurons in the central nervous system. Experimental epileptic models have been developed to assess the physiopathology of epileptic seizures. This study was undertaken to estimate the number of neurons in the rat hippocampus with penicillin induced epilepsy, using a stereological method, "the optical fractionator". In the experimental group, 500 IU penicillin-G was injected intra-cortically, and in the control group, the same volume of saline was administered. A week later, the animals were decapitated and their brains were removed by craniatomy. Frozen brains were cut with a thickness of 150 ěm in a cryostat. Sections were collected by systematic random sampling and stained with hematoxylen-eosin. Microscopic images of pyramidal cell layers from hippocampus CA1, CA2 and CA3 subfields were then transferred to a monitor, using a 100x objective (N.A. = 1.25. Using the optical disector method, the neurons were counted in the frames and determined with a fractionator sampling scheme. The total pyramidal neuron number was then estimated using the optical fractionator method. The total pyramidal neuron number was found to be statistically lower in the experimental group (mean = 142,888 ± 11,745 than in the control group (mean = 177,953 ± 10,907 (p < 0.05. The results suggest that a decrease in the hippocampal neuronal number in a penicillin model of epilepsy can be determined objectively and efficiently using the optical fractionator method.

An integration of competing accounts on children’s number line estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tanja eDackermann

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Children’s estimation patterns in bounded number line estimation reveal marked developmental changes. Three different theoretical accounts were proposed to explain these changes: a log-to-linear shift account, a proportion-judgment account and a two-linear account considering familiarity with numbers or the understanding of the place-value structure of the Arabic number system. However, only the first two accounts are considered prominently in the ongoing scientific debate. Therefore, we first present a reanalysis of number line estimation data of Austrian first-graders contrasting all three accounts. Results indicate that the two-linear account is a reliable alternative to the log-to-linear shift as well as the proportion-judgment account. However, we do not claim the two-liner account to provide an exhaustive explanation for the observed developmental changes. We rather introduce the idea that aspects of all three accounts may complement - instead of exclude - each other. Jointly considering conceptual (i.e., familiarity, place-value and procedural (i.e., proportion-judgments aspects will allow for a more comprehensive understanding of children’s development in number line estimation.

Procedure for estimating permanent total enclosure costs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lukey, M.E.; Prasad, C.; Toothman, D.A.; Kaplan, N.

1999-07-01

Industries that use add-on control devices must adequately capture emissions before delivering them to the control device. One way to capture emissions is to use permanent total enclosures (PTEs). By definition, an enclosure which meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's five-point criteria is a PTE and has a capture efficiency of 100%. Since costs play an important role in regulatory development, in selection of control equipment, and in control technology evaluations for permitting purposes, EPA has developed a Control Cost Manual for estimating costs of various items of control equipment. EPA's Manual does not contain any methodology for estimating PTE costs. In order to assist environmental regulators and potential users of PTEs, a methodology for estimating PTE costs was developed under contract with EPA, by Pacific Environmental Services, Inc. (PES) and is the subject of this paper. The methodology for estimating PTE costs follows the approach used for other control devices in the Manual. It includes procedures for sizing various components of a PTE and for estimating capital as well as annual costs. It contains verification procedures for demonstrating compliance with EPA's five-point criteria. In addition, procedures are included to determine compliance with Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) standards. Meeting these standards is an important factor in properly designing PTEs. The methodology is encoded in Microsoft Exel spreadsheets to facilitate cost estimation and PTE verification. Examples are given throughout the methodology development and in the spreadsheets to illustrate the PTE design, verification, and cost estimation procedures.

Procedure for estimating permanent total enclosure costs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lukey, M E; Prasad, C; Toothman, D A; Kaplan, N

1999-07-01

Industries that use add-on control devices must adequately capture emissions before delivering them to the control device. One way to capture emissions is to use permanent total enclosures (PTEs). By definition, an enclosure which meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's five-point criteria is a PTE and has a capture efficiency of 100%. Since costs play an important role in regulatory development, in selection of control equipment, and in control technology evaluations for permitting purposes, EPA has developed a Control Cost Manual for estimating costs of various items of control equipment. EPA's Manual does not contain any methodology for estimating PTE costs. In order to assist environmental regulators and potential users of PTEs, a methodology for estimating PTE costs was developed under contract with EPA, by Pacific Environmental Services, Inc. (PES) and is the subject of this paper. The methodology for estimating PTE costs follows the approach used for other control devices in the Manual. It includes procedures for sizing various components of a PTE and for estimating capital as well as annual costs. It contains verification procedures for demonstrating compliance with EPA's five-point criteria. In addition, procedures are included to determine compliance with Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) standards. Meeting these standards is an important factor in properly designing PTEs. The methodology is encoded in Microsoft Exel spreadsheets to facilitate cost estimation and PTE verification. Examples are given throughout the methodology development and in the spreadsheets to illustrate the PTE design, verification, and cost estimation procedures.

PFP total process throughput calculation and basis of estimate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

SINCLAIR, J.C.

1999-01-01

The PFP Process Throughput Calculation and Basis of Estimate document provides the calculated value and basis of estimate for process throughput associated with material stabilization operations conducted in 234-52 Building. The process throughput data provided reflects the best estimates of material processing rates consistent with experience at the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) and other U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sites. The rates shown reflect demonstrated capacity during ''full'' operation. They do not reflect impacts of building down time. Therefore, these throughput rates need to have a Total Operating Efficiency (TOE) factor applied

Estimating the number of fractions by tumour site for European countries in 2012 and 2025: An ESTRO-HERO analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Borras, Josep M; Grau, Cai; Corral, Julieta; Wong, Karen; Barton, Michael B; Ferlay, Jacques; Bray, Freddie; Lievens, Yolande

2018-02-01

The optimal number of radiotherapy fractions is a relevant input for planning resource needs. An estimation of the total number of fractions by country and tumour site is assessed for 2012 and 2025. European cancer incidence data by tumour site and country for 2012 and 2025 were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database. Incidence and stage data were introduced in the Australian Collaboration for Cancer Outcomes Research and Evaluation (CCORE) model, producing an evidence-based proportion of incident cases with an indication for radiotherapy and fractions by indication. An indication was defined as a clinical situation in which radiotherapy was the treatment of choice. The total number of fractions if radiotherapy was given according to guidelines to all patients with an indication in Europe was estimated to be 30 million for 2012; with a forecasted increase of 16.1% by 2025, yet with differences by country and tumour. The average number of fractions per course was 17.6 with a small range of differences following stage at diagnosis. Among the treatments with radical intent the average was 24 fractions, while it decreased to 2.5 among palliative treatments. An increase in the total number of fractions is expected in many European countries in the coming years following the trends in cancer incidence. In planning radiotherapy resources, these increases should be balanced to the evolution towards hypofractionation, along with increased complexity and quality assurance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methods of multicriterion estimations in system total quality management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikolay V. Diligenskiy

2011-05-01

Full Text Available In this article the method of multicriterion comparative estimation of efficiency (Data Envelopment Analysis and possibility of its application in system of total quality management is considered.

Total number of tillers of different accessions of Panicum maximum Jacq.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thiago Perez Granato

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The productivity of forage grasses is due to continuous emission of leaves and tillers, ensuring the restoration of leaf área after cutting or grazing, thus ensuring the sustainability of forage. This study aimed to asses the total number tillers in different acessions of Panicum maximum Jacq. The experiment was carried in field belonging to the Instituto de Zootecnia located in Nova Odessa / SP. Evaluated two new accesses Panicum maximum, and two commercial cultivars. The cultivars tested were Aruana, Milenio, NO 2487, NO 78, and the two latter belonging to the Germoplasm Collection of the IZ. The experimental desing was in randomized complete block with four replications. The experimental area consisted of 16 plots of 10 m2 (5 x 2 m each. The experimental area was analyzed and according to the results, received dolomitic limestone corresponding 2t /ha, two months before the implementation of the experiment. Sowing was made by broad costing together with 80 kg/ha of P2O5 in the form of single superphosfate. After 60 days of implantation of the experiment it was a made a leveling of the plots to a height of about 15 cm. After this it was applied 250g of the 20-00-20 fertilizer/plot. Thirty days after the standardization it was evaluated the total number of tillers of the cultivars, using a metal frame of 0.5 x 0.5m which was thrown at random on each of the 16 plots, leaving one meter of each extremitly, and all tillers which were within the frame counted. After finished the counting of all tillers, the plots cut again at a height of approximately 15 cm. The second evaluation took place after thirty days, and it was again counted the total number of tillers following the same procedure. The results were analyzed by Tukey test at 5% after transforming the data to log(x. For the first evaluation there was no statistical difference in the total number of tillers between cultivars. But, in the second evaluation, the total number of tillers of NO 78

The total number of Leydig and Sertoli cells in the testes of men across various age groups - a stereological study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Peter M; Seierøe, Karina; Pakkenberg, Bente

2015-01-01

is particularly sensitive to methodological problems. Therefore, using the optical fractionator technique and a sampling design specifically optimized for human testes, we estimated the total number of Sertoli and Leydig cells in the testes from 26 post mortem male subjects ranging in age from 16 to 80 years...... of Sertoli cells with age; no such decline was found for Leydig cells. Quantitative stereological analysis of post mortem tissue may help understand the influence of age or disease on the number of human testicular cells....

A new fractionator principle with varying sampling fractions: exemplified by estimation of synapse number using electron microscopy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Witgen, Brent Marvin; Grady, M. Sean; Nyengaard, Jens Randel

2006-01-01

The quantification of ultrastructure has been permanently improved by the application of new stereological principles. Both precision and efficiency have been enhanced. Here we report for the first time a fractionator method that can be applied at the electron microscopy level. This new design...... the total object number using section sampling fractions based on the average thickness of sections of variable thicknesses. As an alternative, this approach estimates the correct particle section sampling probability based on an estimator of the Horvitz-Thompson type, resulting in a theoretically more...

Total Body Capacitance for Estimating Human Basal Metabolic Rate in an Egyptian Population

Science.gov (United States)

M. Abdel-Mageed, Samir; I. Mohamed, Ehab

2016-01-01

Determining basal metabolic rate (BMR) is important for estimating total energy needs in the human being yet, concerns have been raised regarding the suitability of sex-specific equations based on age and weight for its calculation on an individual or population basis. It has been shown that body cell mass (BCM) is the body compartment responsible for BMR. The objectives of this study were to investigate the relationship between total body capacitance (TBC), which is considered as an expression for BCM, and BMR and to develop a formula for calculating BMR in comparison with widely used equations. Fifty healthy nonsmoking male volunteers [mean age (± SD): 24.93 ± 4.15 year and body mass index (BMI): 25.63 ± 3.59 kg/m2] and an equal number of healthy nonsmoking females matched for age and BMI were recruited for the study. TBC and BMR were measured for all participants using octopolar bioelectric impedance analysis and indirect calorimetry techniques, respectively. A significant regressing equation based on the covariates: sex, weight, and TBC for estimating BMR was derived (R=0.96, SEE=48.59 kcal, and P<0.0001), which will be useful for nutritional and health status assessment for both individuals and populations. PMID:27127453

Estimation of the number of physical flaws from periodic ISI data of SG tubes using effective POD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Jae Bong; Park, Jai Hak; Kim, Hong Deok; Chung, Han Sub

2008-01-01

It is necessary to know the number of flaws and their size distribution in order to calculate the probability of failure or to estimate the amount of leakage through the tube wall of steam generators. But In-Service Inspection (ISI) flaw data is different from the physical flaw data. In case of a single inspection, it is easy to estimate the number of physical flaws using the POD curve. However, we may be faced with some difficulties in obtaining the number of physical flaws from the periodic in-service inspection data. In this study a method for estimating the number of physical flaws from periodic in-service inspection data is proposed. In order to calculate the number of physical flaws with periodic ISI data, both probabilities of detecting and missing flaws should be considered. And flaw initiation and growth history must be known also. The flaw initiation and growth history can be inferred from appropriate probabilistic flaw growth rate. Two inference methods are proposed and compared. One is Monte Carlo simulation method and the other is transition (stochastic) matrix method. The effective POD, the total possibility of detection considering both probabilities of detecting and missing flaws for each flaw size, can be calculated using above two inference methods. And two methods are compared and the usefulness and convenience are evaluated from several applications

Estimating the number of people in crowded scenes

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Minjin; Kim, Wonjun; Kim, Changick

2011-01-01

This paper presents a method to estimate the number of people in crowded scenes without using explicit object segmentation or tracking. The proposed method consists of three steps as follows: (1) extracting space-time interest points using eigenvalues of the local spatio-temporal gradient matrix, (2) generating crowd regions based on space-time interest points, and (3) estimating the crowd density based on the multiple regression. In experimental results, the efficiency and robustness of our proposed method are demonstrated by using PETS 2009 dataset.

Total Path Length and Number of Terminal Nodes for Decision Trees

KAUST Repository

Hussain, Shahid

2014-09-13

This paper presents a new tool for study of relationships between total path length (average depth) and number of terminal nodes for decision trees. These relationships are important from the point of view of optimization of decision trees. In this particular case of total path length and number of terminal nodes, the relationships between these two cost functions are closely related with space-time trade-off. In addition to algorithm to compute the relationships, the paper also presents results of experiments with datasets from UCI ML Repository1. These experiments show how two cost functions behave for a given decision table and the resulting plots show the Pareto frontier or Pareto set of optimal points. Furthermore, in some cases this Pareto frontier is a singleton showing the total optimality of decision trees for the given decision table.

Estimating total 239240Pu in blow-sand mounds of two safety-shot sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, R.O.; Essington, E.H.

1977-01-01

A study for estimating the total amount (inventory) of 239 240 Pu in blow-sand mounds at two safety-shot sites (Area 13-Project 57 on the Nellis Air Force Base and Clean Slate 3 on the Tonopah Test Range in Nevada) is described. The total amount in blow-sand mounds at these two sites is estimated to be 5.8 +- 1.3 (total +- standard error) and 10.6 +- 2.5 curies, respectively. The total 239 240 Pu in mounds plus desert pavement areas, both to a depth of 5 cm below desert pavement level, is estimated to be 39 +- 5.7 curies at the Project 57 site and 36 +- 4.8 curies at Clean Slate 3. These estimates are compared with the somewhat higher estimates of 46 +- 9 and 37 +- 5.4 curies reported that pertain to only the top 5 cm of mounds and desert pavement. The possibility is discussed that these differences are due to sampling variability arising from the skewed nature of plutonium concentrations, particularly near ground zero

Estimated Intakes and Sources of Total and Added Sugars in the Canadian Diet

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tristin D. Brisbois

2014-05-01

Full Text Available National food supply data and dietary surveys are essential to estimate nutrient intakes and monitor trends, yet there are few published studies estimating added sugars consumption. The purpose of this report was to estimate and trend added sugars intakes and their contribution to total energy intake among Canadians by, first, using Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS nutrition survey data of intakes of sugars in foods and beverages, and second, using Statistics Canada availability data and adjusting these for wastage to estimate intakes. Added sugars intakes were estimated from CCHS data by categorizing the sugars content of food groups as either added or naturally occurring. Added sugars accounted for approximately half of total sugars consumed. Annual availability data were obtained from Statistics Canada CANSIM database. Estimates for added sugars were obtained by summing the availability of “sugars and syrups” with availability of “soft drinks” (proxy for high fructose corn syrup and adjusting for waste. Analysis of both survey and availability data suggests that added sugars average 11%–13% of total energy intake. Availability data indicate that added sugars intakes have been stable or modestly declining as a percent of total energy over the past three decades. Although these are best estimates based on available data, this analysis may encourage the development of better databases to help inform public policy recommendations.

Estimated intakes and sources of total and added sugars in the Canadian diet.

Science.gov (United States)

Brisbois, Tristin D; Marsden, Sandra L; Anderson, G Harvey; Sievenpiper, John L

2014-05-08

National food supply data and dietary surveys are essential to estimate nutrient intakes and monitor trends, yet there are few published studies estimating added sugars consumption. The purpose of this report was to estimate and trend added sugars intakes and their contribution to total energy intake among Canadians by, first, using Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) nutrition survey data of intakes of sugars in foods and beverages, and second, using Statistics Canada availability data and adjusting these for wastage to estimate intakes. Added sugars intakes were estimated from CCHS data by categorizing the sugars content of food groups as either added or naturally occurring. Added sugars accounted for approximately half of total sugars consumed. Annual availability data were obtained from Statistics Canada CANSIM database. Estimates for added sugars were obtained by summing the availability of "sugars and syrups" with availability of "soft drinks" (proxy for high fructose corn syrup) and adjusting for waste. Analysis of both survey and availability data suggests that added sugars average 11%-13% of total energy intake. Availability data indicate that added sugars intakes have been stable or modestly declining as a percent of total energy over the past three decades. Although these are best estimates based on available data, this analysis may encourage the development of better databases to help inform public policy recommendations.

An Estimate of the Total DNA in the Biosphere.

Science.gov (United States)

Landenmark, Hanna K E; Forgan, Duncan H; Cockell, Charles S

2015-06-01

Modern whole-organism genome analysis, in combination with biomass estimates, allows us to estimate a lower bound on the total information content in the biosphere: 5.3 × 1031 (±3.6 × 1031) megabases (Mb) of DNA. Given conservative estimates regarding DNA transcription rates, this information content suggests biosphere processing speeds exceeding yottaNOPS values (1024 Nucleotide Operations Per Second). Although prokaryotes evolved at least 3 billion years before plants and animals, we find that the information content of prokaryotes is similar to plants and animals at the present day. This information-based approach offers a new way to quantify anthropogenic and natural processes in the biosphere and its information diversity over time.

Estimation of the number of extreme pathways for metabolic networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thiele Ines

2007-09-01

9q8qiLsFr0=vr0=vr0dc8meaabaqaciaacaGaaeqabaqabeGadaaakeaacqWGKbazdaWgaaWcbaGaey4kaSYaaSbaaWqaaiabdMgaPbqabaaaleqaaaaa@309E@ the incoming and outgoing degrees of the reactions ri ∈ Reff, and ci the clustering coefficient for each active reaction. Conclusion This relationship typically gave an estimate of the number of extreme pathways to within a factor of 10 of the true number. Such a function providing an estimate for the total number of ExPas for a given system will enable researchers to decide whether ExPas analysis is an appropriate investigative tool.

Estimating particle number size distributions from multi-instrument observations with Kalman Filtering

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Viskari, T.

2012-07-01

Atmospheric aerosol particles have several important effects on the environment and human society. The exact impact of aerosol particles is largely determined by their particle size distributions. However, no single instrument is able to measure the whole range of the particle size distribution. Estimating a particle size distribution from multiple simultaneous measurements remains a challenge in aerosol physical research. Current methods to combine different measurements require assumptions concerning the overlapping measurement ranges and have difficulties in accounting for measurement uncertainties. In this thesis, Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is presented as a promising method to estimate particle number size distributions from multiple simultaneous measurements. The particle number size distribution estimated by EKF includes information from prior particle number size distributions as propagated by a dynamical model and is based on the reliabilities of the applied information sources. Known physical processes and dynamically evolving error covariances constrain the estimate both over time and particle size. The method was tested with measurements from Differential Mobility Particle Sizer (DMPS), Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (APS) and nephelometer. The particle number concentration was chosen as the state of interest. The initial EKF implementation presented here includes simplifications, yet the results are positive and the estimate successfully incorporated information from the chosen instruments. For particle sizes smaller than 4 micrometers, the estimate fits the available measurements and smooths the particle number size distribution over both time and particle diameter. The estimate has difficulties with particles larger than 4 micrometers due to issues with both measurements and the dynamical model in that particle size range. The EKF implementation appears to reduce the impact of measurement noise on the estimate, but has a delayed reaction to sudden

Estimating Otter Numbers Using Spraints: Is It Possible?

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Paul Yoxon

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Spraints have been used to survey otters in the UK since 1979 and a standard methodology has been set up which has been used in Britain and Europe for most survey work. At present data from these surveys is being used to give an estimation of actual population numbers. However, for this to be possible, there must be a correlation between sprainting numbers, active spraint sites, and otter numbers. This paper investigates whether such a correlation exists. There is evidence from previous work that there is seasonal variation in sprainting and this study confirms this. Therefore spraint surveys should be undertaken in the same months for each repeat survey.

Estimates of mean consequences and confidence bounds on the mean associated with low-probability seismic events in total system performance assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pensado, Osvaldo; Mancillas, James

2007-01-01

An approach is described to estimate mean consequences and confidence bounds on the mean of seismic events with low probability of breaching components of the engineered barrier system. The approach is aimed at complementing total system performance assessment models used to understand consequences of scenarios leading to radionuclide releases in geologic nuclear waste repository systems. The objective is to develop an efficient approach to estimate mean consequences associated with seismic events of low probability, employing data from a performance assessment model with a modest number of Monte Carlo realizations. The derived equations and formulas were tested with results from a specific performance assessment model. The derived equations appear to be one method to estimate mean consequences without having to use a large number of realizations. (authors)

Love numbers for the long-period tides estimated by VLBI

Science.gov (United States)

Krásná, Hana; Böhm, Johannes; Haas, Rüdiger; Schuh, Harald

2013-04-01

Love and Shida numbers are proportionality factors characterizing the deformation of the anelastic Earth which arises as a response to external forces from the Moon and Sun. The increasing precision and quality of the Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) measurements allow determining those parameters. In particular, the long history of the VLBI data enables the estimation of Love and Shida numbers at the low frequencies of the tidal waves including the periods from 14 days to 18.6 years. In this study we analyse 27 years of VLBI measurements (1984.0 - 2011.0) following the recent IERS Conventions 2010. In several global solutions, we estimate the complex Love and Shida numbers of the solid Earth tides for the main long-period tidal waves. Furthermore, we determine the Love and Shida numbers of the rotational deformation due to polar motion, the so-called pole tide. We also focus on station displacement where still some deficiencies in the long-period signal modelling can be seen.

Estimation of Total Error in DWPF Reported Radionuclide Inventories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards, T.B.

1995-01-01

This report investigates the impact of random errors due to measurement and sampling on the reported concentrations of radionuclides in DWPF's filled canister inventory resulting from each macro-batch. The objective of this investigation is to estimate the variance of the total error in reporting these radionuclide concentrations

Concentration, flux, and trend estimates with uncertainty for nutrients, chloride, and total suspended solids in tributaries of Lake Champlain, 1990–2014

Science.gov (United States)

Medalie, Laura

2016-12-20

increased in 10 tributaries; and fluxes of dissolved phosphorus decreased in 4 and increased in 10 tributaries (where the number of increasing and decreasing trends does not add up to 18, the remainder of tributaries had no trends). Concentrations and fluxes of nitrogen decreased in 10 and increased in 4 tributaries and of chloride decreased in 2 and increased in 15 tributaries. Concentrations of total suspended solids decreased in 4 and increased in 8 tributaries, and fluxes of total suspended solids decreased in 3 and increased in 11 tributaries. Although time intervals for the percent changes from this report are not completely synchronous with those from previous studies, the numbers of and specific tributaries with overall negative percent changes in concentration and flux are similar. Concentration estimates of total phosphorus in the Winooski River were used to trace whether changes in trends between a previous study and the current study were due generally to differences in model specifications or differences from 4 years of additional data. The Winooski River analysis illustrates several things: that keeping all model specifications equal, concentration estimates increased from 2010 to 2014; the effects of a smoothing algorithm used in the current study that was not available previously; that narrowing model half-window widths increased year-to-year variations; and that the change from an annual to a 9-month basis by omitting winter estimates changed a few individual points but not the overall shape of the flow-normalized curve. Similar tests for other tributaries showed that the primary effect of differences in model specifications between the previous and current studies was perhaps to increase scatter over time but that changes in trends generally were the result of 4 years of additional data rather than artifacts of model differences.

Precise estimation of total solar radiation on tilted surface

African Journals Online (AJOL)

rajeev

rarely available required for precise sizing of energy systems. The total solar radiation at different orientation and slope is needed to calculate the efficiency of the installed solar energy systems. To calculate clearness index (Kt) used by Gueymard (2000) for estimating solar irradiation H, irradiation at the earth's surface has ...

Robust total energy demand estimation with a hybrid Variable Neighborhood Search – Extreme Learning Machine algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sánchez-Oro, J.; Duarte, A.; Salcedo-Sanz, S.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The total energy demand in Spain is estimated with a Variable Neighborhood algorithm. • Socio-economic variables are used, and one year ahead prediction horizon is considered. • Improvement of the prediction with an Extreme Learning Machine network is considered. • Experiments are carried out in real data for the case of Spain. - Abstract: Energy demand prediction is an important problem whose solution is evaluated by policy makers in order to take key decisions affecting the economy of a country. A number of previous approaches to improve the quality of this estimation have been proposed in the last decade, the majority of them applying different machine learning techniques. In this paper, the performance of a robust hybrid approach, composed of a Variable Neighborhood Search algorithm and a new class of neural network called Extreme Learning Machine, is discussed. The Variable Neighborhood Search algorithm is focused on obtaining the most relevant features among the set of initial ones, by including an exponential prediction model. While previous approaches consider that the number of macroeconomic variables used for prediction is a parameter of the algorithm (i.e., it is fixed a priori), the proposed Variable Neighborhood Search method optimizes both: the number of variables and the best ones. After this first step of feature selection, an Extreme Learning Machine network is applied to obtain the final energy demand prediction. Experiments in a real case of energy demand estimation in Spain show the excellent performance of the proposed approach. In particular, the whole method obtains an estimation of the energy demand with an error lower than 2%, even when considering the crisis years, which are a real challenge.

Estimativa do total de horas abaixo de determinada temperatura-base através das medidas diárias da temperatura do ar Number of hours below any base temperature estimated by daily measurements of air temperature

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Luiz B. Angelocci

1979-01-01

Full Text Available São propostas equações matemáticas para estimar o total diário de horas abaixo de determinada temperatura-base, em certo período, utilizando-se somente dos valores diários das temperaturas máxima, mínima e das 21 horas (hora local. A comparação entre os totais diários e mensais de "horas de frio" estimados pelas equações propostas e os observados através de termogramas, para várias localidades do Estado de São Paulo, mostrou boa concordância entre os métodos de cálculo. O modelo proposto dispensa o uso de registros contínuos de temperatura. As vantagens de tal estimativa residem na maior disponibilidade de registros de temperaturas máximas, mínimas e das 21 horas, permitindo maior densidade de pontos em trabalhos de zoneamento agroclimático e de cartografia, além da eliminação do processo de cotação de termogramas.Mathematical equations are proposed to estimate the daily number of hours in which the air temperature remains below a determined treshold value. The equations require only daily values of maximum, minimum and 9 p.m. local time temperature, measured inside the meteorological shelter. This technique is suitable for machine computation thus avoiding the tremendous task of quantifying a large number of thermograms. This fact permits the utilization of a greater number of stations in studies of crop zonation and cartography. Good correlations were obtained between estimated and observed data of the daily and monthly total number of hours below 7°C, 13°C and 17°C, for five stations in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, showing relative accuracy of the proposed equations.

Estimating Soil Bulk Density and Total Nitrogen from Catchment ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Even though data on soil bulk density (BD) and total nitrogen (TN) are essential for planning modern farming techniques, their data availability is limited for many applications in the developing word. This study is designed to estimate BD and TN from soil properties, land-use systems, soil types and landforms in the ...

Total body skeletal muscle mass: estimation by creatine (methyl-d3) dilution in humans

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, Ann C.; O'Connor-Semmes, Robin L.; Leonard, Michael S.; Miller, Ram R.; Stimpson, Stephen A.; Turner, Scott M.; Ravussin, Eric; Cefalu, William T.; Hellerstein, Marc K.; Evans, William J.

2014-01-01

Current methods for clinical estimation of total body skeletal muscle mass have significant limitations. We tested the hypothesis that creatine (methyl-d3) dilution (D3-creatine) measured by enrichment of urine D3-creatinine reveals total body creatine pool size, providing an accurate estimate of total body skeletal muscle mass. Healthy subjects with different muscle masses [n = 35: 20 men (19–30 yr, 70–84 yr), 15 postmenopausal women (51–62 yr, 70–84 yr)] were housed for 5 days. Optimal tracer dose was explored with single oral doses of 30, 60, or 100 mg D3-creatine given on day 1. Serial plasma samples were collected for D3-creatine pharmacokinetics. All urine was collected through day 5. Creatine and creatinine (deuterated and unlabeled) were measured by liquid chromatography mass spectrometry. Total body creatine pool size and muscle mass were calculated from D3-creatinine enrichment in urine. Muscle mass was also measured by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and traditional 24-h urine creatinine. D3-creatine was rapidly absorbed and cleared with variable urinary excretion. Isotopic steady-state of D3-creatinine enrichment in the urine was achieved by 30.7 ± 11.2 h. Mean steady-state enrichment in urine provided muscle mass estimates that correlated well with MRI estimates for all subjects (r = 0.868, P creatine dose determined by urine D3-creatinine enrichment provides an estimate of total body muscle mass strongly correlated with estimates from serial MRI with less bias than total lean body mass assessment by DXA. PMID:24764133

Total Path Length and Number of Terminal Nodes for Decision Trees

KAUST Repository

Hussain, Shahid

2014-01-01

This paper presents a new tool for study of relationships between total path length (average depth) and number of terminal nodes for decision trees. These relationships are important from the point of view of optimization of decision trees

Estimation of MONIN-OBUKHOV length using richardson and bulk richardson number

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Essa, K.S.M.

2000-01-01

The 1996 NOVA atmospheric boundary layer data from North Carolina are used in 30 minute's averages for five days. Because of missing data of friction velocity (u) and sensible heat flux (H), it is urgent to calculate (u*)and (H) using the equations of logarithmic wind speed and net radiation (Briggs [7]), which are considered in this work. It is found that the correlation between the predicted and observed values of (u*) and (H) is 0.88 and 0.86 respectively. A comparison is made of the Monin-Obukhov length scale (L) estimated using Richardson number (R i ) and bulk Richardson number (Ri b ) with L-value computed using formula of (L), it is found that the agreement between the predicted and observed values of (L) is better in the case (L)is estimated from the bulk Richardson number (Ri b ), rather than from the gradient Richarson number(R j )

The Sandia total-dose estimator: SANDOSE description and user guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turner, C.D.

1995-02-01

The SANdia total-DOSe Estimator (SANDOSE) is used to estimate total radiation dose to a (BRL-CAT) solid model, SANDOSE uses the mass-sectoring technique to sample the model using ray-tracing techniques. The code is integrated directly into the BRL-CAD solid model editor and is operated using a simple graphical user interface. Several diagnostic tools are available to allow the user to analyze the results. Based on limited validation using several benchmark problems, results can be expected to fall between a 10% underestimate and a factor of 2 overestimate of the actual dose predicted by rigorous radiation transport techniques. However, other situations may be encountered where the results might fall outside of this range. The code is written in C and uses X-windows graphics. It presently runs on SUN SPARCstations, but in theory could be ported to any workstation with a C compiler and X-windows. SANDOSE is available via license by contacting either the Sandia National Laboratories Technology Transfer Center or the author

Estimation of Total Body Fat from Potassium-40 Content

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taha Mohamed Taha Ahmed, T.M.T.

2010-01-01

This paper concerns on estimation of total body fat from potassium 40 content using total body counting technique. The work performed using fast scan whole body counter. Calibration of that system for K-40 was carried out under assumption that uniformity distribution of radioactivity of potassium was distributed in 10 polyethylene bottles phantom. Different body sizes were represented by 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 polyethylene bottles; each bottle has a volume of 0.04 m3. The counting efficiency for each body size was determined. Lean body weight (LBW) was calculated for ten males and ten females using appropriate mathematical equation. Total Body Potassium, TBK for the same selected group was measured using whole body counter. A mathematical relationship between lean body weight and potassium content was deduced .Fat contents for some individuals were calculated and weight/height ratio was indicated for fatness.

The estimation of the catchment runoff using a small number of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The estimation of the catchment runoff using a small number of rainfall stations in Burkina Faso. Youssouf Dembele, Jean Duchesne. Abstract. The objective of this study was to determine a suitable method to compute the runoff over a catchment with a few number of rainfall stations. Input hydrological variables were ...

Number line estimation strategies in children with mathematical learning difficulties measured by eye tracking

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van 't Noordende, Jaccoline E|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/369862422; van Hoogmoed, Anne H|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/314839496; Schot, Willemijn D; Kroesbergen, Evelyn H|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/241607949

INTRODUCTION: Number line estimation is one of the skills related to mathematical performance. Previous research has shown that eye tracking can be used to identify differences in the estimation strategies children with dyscalculia and children with typical mathematical development use on number

Number line estimation strategies in children with mathematical learning difficulties measured by eye tracking

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van’t Noordende, Jaccoline E.; van Hoogmoed, Anne H.; Schot, Willemijn D.; Kroesbergen, Evelyn H.

2016-01-01

Introduction: Number line estimation is one of the skills related to mathematical performance. Previous research has shown that eye tracking can be used to identify differences in the estimation strategies children with dyscalculia and children with typical mathematical development use on number

Total Discharge Estimation in the Korean Peninsula Using Multi-Satellite Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jae Young Seo

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Estimation of total discharge is necessary to understand the hydrological cycle and to manage water resources efficiently. However, the task is problematic in an area where ground observations are limited. The North Korea region is one example. Here, the total discharge was estimated based on the water balance using multiple satellite products. They are the terrestrial water storage changes (TWSC derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE, precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM, and evapotranspiration from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS. The satellite-based discharge was compared with land surface model products of the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS, and a positive relationship between the results was obtained (r = 0.70–0.86; bias = −9.08–16.99 mm/month; RMSE = 36.90–62.56 mm/month; NSE = 0.01–0.62. Among the four land surface models of GLDAS (CLM, Mosaic, Noah, and VIC, CLM corresponded best with the satellite-based discharge, satellite-based discharge has a tendency to slightly overestimate compared to model-based discharge (CLM, Mosaic, Noah, and VIC in the dry season. Also, the total discharge data based on the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS and the in situ discharge for major five river basins in South Korea show comparable seasonality and high correlation with the satellite-based discharge. In spite of the relatively low spatial resolution of GRACE, and loss of information incurred during the process of integrating three different satellite products, the proposed methodology can be a practical tool to estimate the total discharge with reasonable accuracy, especially in a region with scarce hydrologic data.

Use of total body electrical conductivity (TOBEC) to determine total body water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cochran, W.; Wong, W.; Sheng, H.P.; Klein, P.; Klish, W.

1986-01-01

Total body electrical conductivity (TOBEC) has been introduced as a safe and rapid method to estimate body composition in infants and adults. Recently, a second generation instrument that operates in a scanning mode has been developed. A study was undertaken to calibrate this new instrument and to assess the feasibility of its use in estimating total body water. Six healthy adults, 3 males and 3 females, ranging in age from 25 to 57 years, and in weight from 43.3 to 104.7 kg were analyzed. Simultaneously, determinations of total body water were made by standard dilutional techniques using H 2 18 O. A baseline plasma sample was obtained and 60 mg 18 O/kg was given orally as H 2 18 O. Five hr later, a postdose plasma sample was obtained. The 18 O/ 16 O ratio in the plasma samples was determined as CO 2 by gas-isotope-ratio mass spectrometry and used to calculate the H 2 18 O volume of distribution. The total body water values ranged from 26.35 to 58.02 and represented 51 to 58% of body weight. There was good linear correlation between the total body water measurement and its phase average (TOBEC number) with a linear correlation coefficient of 0.998. The standard error of the estimate was 0.98. In addition to estimating fat and fat-free mass, the TOBEC method also estimates total body water with excellent correlation to physical dilutions methods

Small area estimation for estimating the number of infant mortality in West Java, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Anggreyani, Arie; Indahwati, Kurnia, Anang

2016-02-01

Demographic and Health Survey Indonesia (DHSI) is a national designed survey to provide information regarding birth rate, mortality rate, family planning and health. DHSI was conducted by BPS in cooperation with National Population and Family Planning Institution (BKKBN), Indonesia Ministry of Health (KEMENKES) and USAID. Based on the publication of DHSI 2012, the infant mortality rate for a period of five years before survey conducted is 32 for 1000 birth lives. In this paper, Small Area Estimation (SAE) is used to estimate the number of infant mortality in districts of West Java. SAE is a special model of Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). In this case, the incidence of infant mortality is a Poisson distribution which has equdispersion assumption. The methods to handle overdispersion are binomial negative and quasi-likelihood model. Based on the results of analysis, quasi-likelihood model is the best model to overcome overdispersion problem. The basic model of the small area estimation used basic area level model. Mean square error (MSE) which based on resampling method is used to measure the accuracy of small area estimates.

Mixing the Green-Ampt model and Curve Number method as an empirical tool for rainfall excess estimation in small ungauged catchments.

Science.gov (United States)

Grimaldi, S.; Petroselli, A.; Romano, N.

2012-04-01

The Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN) method is a popular rainfall-runoff model that is widely used to estimate direct runoff from small and ungauged basins. The SCS-CN is a simple and valuable approach to estimate the total stream-flow volume generated by a storm rainfall, but it was developed to be used with daily rainfall data. To overcome this drawback, we propose to include the Green-Ampt (GA) infiltration model into a mixed procedure, which is referred to as CN4GA (Curve Number for Green-Ampt), aiming to distribute in time the information provided by the SCS-CN method so as to provide estimation of sub-daily incremental rainfall excess. For a given storm, the computed SCS-CN total net rainfall amount is used to calibrate the soil hydraulic conductivity parameter of the Green-Ampt model. The proposed procedure was evaluated by analyzing 100 rainfall-runoff events observed in four small catchments of varying size. CN4GA appears an encouraging tool for predicting the net rainfall peak and duration values and has shown, at least for the test cases considered in this study, a better agreement with observed hydrographs than that of the classic SCS-CN method.

Mean total arsenic concentrations in chicken 1989-2000 and estimated exposures for consumers of chicken.

OpenAIRE

Lasky, Tamar; Sun, Wenyu; Kadry, Abdel; Hoffman, Michael K

2004-01-01

The purpose of this study was to estimate mean concentrations of total arsenic in chicken liver tissue and then estimate total and inorganic arsenic ingested by humans through chicken consumption. We used national monitoring data from the Food Safety and Inspection Service National Residue Program to estimate mean arsenic concentrations for 1994-2000. Incorporating assumptions about the concentrations of arsenic in liver and muscle tissues as well as the proportions of inorganic and organic a...

Improvement of Source Number Estimation Method for Single Channel Signal.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhi Dong

Full Text Available Source number estimation methods for single channel signal have been investigated and the improvements for each method are suggested in this work. Firstly, the single channel data is converted to multi-channel form by delay process. Then, algorithms used in the array signal processing, such as Gerschgorin's disk estimation (GDE and minimum description length (MDL, are introduced to estimate the source number of the received signal. The previous results have shown that the MDL based on information theoretic criteria (ITC obtains a superior performance than GDE at low SNR. However it has no ability to handle the signals containing colored noise. On the contrary, the GDE method can eliminate the influence of colored noise. Nevertheless, its performance at low SNR is not satisfactory. In order to solve these problems and contradictions, the work makes remarkable improvements on these two methods on account of the above consideration. A diagonal loading technique is employed to ameliorate the MDL method and a jackknife technique is referenced to optimize the data covariance matrix in order to improve the performance of the GDE method. The results of simulation have illustrated that the performance of original methods have been promoted largely.

Estimating the future number of cases in the Ebola epidemic--Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014-2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Meltzer, Martin I; Atkins, Charisma Y; Santibanez, Scott; Knust, Barbara; Petersen, Brett W; Ervin, Elizabeth D; Nichol, Stuart T; Damon, Inger K; Washington, Michael L

2014-09-26

The first cases of the current West African epidemic of Ebola virus disease (hereafter referred to as Ebola) were reported on March 22, 2014, with a report of 49 cases in Guinea. By August 31, 2014, a total of 3,685 probable, confirmed, and suspected cases in West Africa had been reported. To aid in planning for additional disease-control efforts, CDC constructed a modeling tool called EbolaResponse to provide estimates of the potential number of future cases. If trends continue without scale-up of effective interventions, by September 30, 2014, Sierra Leone and Liberia will have a total of approximately 8,000 Ebola cases. A potential underreporting correction factor of 2.5 also was calculated. Using this correction factor, the model estimates that approximately 21,000 total cases will have occurred in Liberia and Sierra Leone by September 30, 2014. Reported cases in Liberia are doubling every 15-20 days, and those in Sierra Leone are doubling every 30-40 days. The EbolaResponse modeling tool also was used to estimate how control and prevention interventions can slow and eventually stop the epidemic. In a hypothetical scenario, the epidemic begins to decrease and eventually end if approximately 70% of persons with Ebola are in medical care facilities or Ebola treatment units (ETUs) or, when these settings are at capacity, in a non-ETU setting such that there is a reduced risk for disease transmission (including safe burial when needed). In another hypothetical scenario, every 30-day delay in increasing the percentage of patients in ETUs to 70% was associated with an approximate tripling in the number of daily cases that occur at the peak of the epidemic (however, the epidemic still eventually ends). Officials have developed a plan to rapidly increase ETU capacities and also are developing innovative methods that can be quickly scaled up to isolate patients in non-ETU settings in a way that can help disrupt Ebola transmission in communities. The U.S. government and

Variation with Mach Number of Static and Total Pressures Through Various Screens

Science.gov (United States)

Adler, Alfred A

1946-01-01

Tests were conducted in the Langley 24-inch highspeed tunnel to ascertain the static-pressure and total-pressure losses through screens ranging in mesh from 3 to 12 wires per inch and in wire diameter from 0.023 to 0.041 inch. Data were obtained from a Mach number of approximately 0.20 up to the maximum (choking) Mach number obtainable for each screen. The results of this investigation indicate that the pressure losses increase with increasing Mach number until the choking Mach number, which can be computed, is reached. Since choking imposes a restriction on the mass rate of flow and maximum losses are incurred at this condition, great care must be taken in selecting the screen mesh and wire dimmeter for an installation so that the choking Mach number is

Estimating the numbers of malaria infections in blood samples using high-resolution genotyping data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amanda Ross

Full Text Available People living in endemic areas often habour several malaria infections at once. High-resolution genotyping can distinguish between infections by detecting the presence of different alleles at a polymorphic locus. However the number of infections may not be accurately counted since parasites from multiple infections may carry the same allele. We use simulation to determine the circumstances under which the number of observed genotypes are likely to be substantially less than the number of infections present and investigate the performance of two methods for estimating the numbers of infections from high-resolution genotyping data. The simulations suggest that the problem is not substantial in most datasets: the disparity between the mean numbers of infections and of observed genotypes was small when there was 20 or more alleles, 20 or more blood samples, a mean number of infections of 6 or less and where the frequency of the most common allele was no greater than 20%. The issue of multiple infections carrying the same allele is unlikely to be a major component of the errors in PCR-based genotyping. Simulations also showed that, with heterogeneity in allele frequencies, the observed frequencies are not a good approximation of the true allele frequencies. The first method that we proposed to estimate the numbers of infections assumes that they are a good approximation and hence did poorly in the presence of heterogeneity. In contrast, the second method by Li et al estimates both the numbers of infections and the true allele frequencies simultaneously and produced accurate estimates of the mean number of infections.

Statistically extracted fundamental watershed variables for estimating the loads of total nitrogen in small streams

Science.gov (United States)

Kronholm, Scott C.; Capel, Paul D.; Terziotti, Silvia

2016-01-01

Accurate estimation of total nitrogen loads is essential for evaluating conditions in the aquatic environment. Extrapolation of estimates beyond measured streams will greatly expand our understanding of total nitrogen loading to streams. Recursive partitioning and random forest regression were used to assess 85 geospatial, environmental, and watershed variables across 636 small (monitoring may be beneficial.

Distinct gene number-genome size relationships for eukaryotes and non-eukaryotes: gene content estimation for dinoflagellate genomes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yubo Hou

Full Text Available The ability to predict gene content is highly desirable for characterization of not-yet sequenced genomes like those of dinoflagellates. Using data from completely sequenced and annotated genomes from phylogenetically diverse lineages, we investigated the relationship between gene content and genome size using regression analyses. Distinct relationships between log(10-transformed protein-coding gene number (Y' versus log(10-transformed genome size (X', genome size in kbp were found for eukaryotes and non-eukaryotes. Eukaryotes best fit a logarithmic model, Y' = ln(-46.200+22.678X', whereas non-eukaryotes a linear model, Y' = 0.045+0.977X', both with high significance (p0.91. Total gene number shows similar trends in both groups to their respective protein coding regressions. The distinct correlations reflect lower and decreasing gene-coding percentages as genome size increases in eukaryotes (82%-1% compared to higher and relatively stable percentages in prokaryotes and viruses (97%-47%. The eukaryotic regression models project that the smallest dinoflagellate genome (3x10(6 kbp contains 38,188 protein-coding (40,086 total genes and the largest (245x10(6 kbp 87,688 protein-coding (92,013 total genes, corresponding to 1.8% and 0.05% gene-coding percentages. These estimates do not likely represent extraordinarily high functional diversity of the encoded proteome but rather highly redundant genomes as evidenced by high gene copy numbers documented for various dinoflagellate species.

Turmeric (Curcuma longa L.) extract may prevent the deterioration of spatial memory and the deficit of estimated total number of hippocampal pyramidal cells of trimethyltin-exposed rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Yuliani, Sapto; Mustofa; Partadiredja, Ginus

2018-01-01

Protection of neurons from degeneration is an important preventive strategy for dementia. Much of the dementia pathology implicates oxidative stress pathways. Turmeric (Curcuma longa L.) contains curcuminoids which has anti-oxidative and neuro-protective effects. These effects are considered to be similar to those of citicoline which has been regularly used as one of standard medications for dementia. This study aimed at investigating the effects of turmeric rhizome extract on the hippocampus of trimethyltin (TMT)-treated Sprague-Dawley rats. The rats were divided randomly into six groups, i.e., a normal control group (N); Sn group, which was given TMT chloride; Sn-Cit group, which was treated with citicoline and TMT chloride; and three Sn-TE groups, which were treated with three different dosages of turmeric rhizome extract and TMT chloride. Morris water maze test was carried out to examine the spatial memory. The estimated total number of CA1 and CA2-CA3 pyramidal cells was calculated using a stereological method. The administration of turmeric extract at a dose of 200 mg/kg bw has been shown to prevent the deficits in the spatial memory performance and partially inhibit the reduction of the number of CA2-CA3 regions pyramidal neurons. TMT-induced neurotoxic damage seemed to be mediated by the generation of reactive oxygen species and reactive nitrogen species. Turmeric extract might act as anti inflammatory as well as anti-oxidant agent. The effects of turmeric extract at a dose of 200 mg/kg bw seem to be comparable to those of citicoline.

Condition Number Regularized Covariance Estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Won, Joong-Ho; Lim, Johan; Kim, Seung-Jean; Rajaratnam, Bala

2013-06-01

Estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices is known to be a difficult problem, has many applications, and is of current interest to the larger statistics community. In many applications including so-called the "large p small n " setting, the estimate of the covariance matrix is required to be not only invertible, but also well-conditioned. Although many regularization schemes attempt to do this, none of them address the ill-conditioning problem directly. In this paper, we propose a maximum likelihood approach, with the direct goal of obtaining a well-conditioned estimator. No sparsity assumption on either the covariance matrix or its inverse are are imposed, thus making our procedure more widely applicable. We demonstrate that the proposed regularization scheme is computationally efficient, yields a type of Steinian shrinkage estimator, and has a natural Bayesian interpretation. We investigate the theoretical properties of the regularized covariance estimator comprehensively, including its regularization path, and proceed to develop an approach that adaptively determines the level of regularization that is required. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of the regularized estimator in decision-theoretic comparisons and in the financial portfolio optimization setting. The proposed approach has desirable properties, and can serve as a competitive procedure, especially when the sample size is small and when a well-conditioned estimator is required.

Total number of planetary nebulae in different galaxies and the PN distance scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Peimbert, M.

1990-12-01

RESUMEN A partir de una muestra de quince galaxias se encuentra que la tasa de natalidad de nebulosas planetarias por unidad de luminosidad, , disminuye al aumentar la luminosidad y al aumentar (B - V)0. Se discuten posibles explicaciones para estos resultados. Se estima el valor de para la Galaxia y a partir de el se encuentra que el numero total de nebulosas planetarias en nuestra galaxia con R de 7200 j 1800. El valor galactico de implica que la mayorfa de las estrellas de masa intermedia pasa por la etapa de nebulosa planetaria. El valor galactico de , la tasa de mortalidad estelar por unidad de luminosidad y la tasa de natalidad de enanas blancas favorecen escalas de distancias largas para nebulosas planetarias, como la de Cudworth (1974) y la de Mallik y Peimbert (1988). ABSTRACT From a sample of fifteen galaxies it is found that the birth rate of PN per unit luminosity, , decreases with increasing luminosity and with increasing (B - V)0 possible reasons for these relationships are discussed. The value for the Galaxy is estimated and, from it, a total number of PN of 7200 # 1800 wid R < 0.64 pc is obtained. The galactic value implies that most of the intermediate mass stars go through the PN stage. The galactic value, the stellar death rate per unit luminosity and the white dwarf birth rate are in favor of long distance scales to PN like those of Cudworth (1974) and Mallik and (1988). Key wonis: NEBULAE.PLANETARY - STARS-EVOLUTION - STARS-SThLIAR STA. S

Total cost estimates for large-scale wind scenarios in UK

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dale, Lewis; Milborrow, David; Slark, Richard; Strbac, Goran

2004-01-01

The recent UK Energy White Paper suggested that the Government should aim to secure 20% of electricity from renewable sources by 2020. A number of estimates of the extra cost of such a commitment have been made, but these have not necessarily included all the relevant cost components. This analysis sets out to identify these and to calculate the extra cost to the electricity consumer, assuming all the renewable electricity is sourced from wind energy. This enables one of the more controversial issues--the implications of wind intermittency--to be addressed. The basis of the assumptions associated with generating costs, extra balancing costs and distribution and transmission system reinforcement costs are all clearly identified and the total costs of a '20% wind' scenario are compared with a scenario where a similar amount of energy is generated by gas-fired plant. This enables the extra costs of the renewables scenario to be determined. The central estimate of the extra costs to electricity consumers is just over 0.3 p/kW h in current prices (around 5% extra on average domestic unit prices). Sensitivity analyses examine the implications of differing assumptions. The extra cost would rise if the capital costs of wind generation fall slower than anticipated, but would fall if gas prices rise more rapidly than has been assumed, or if wind plant are more productive. Even if it is assumed that wind has no capacity displacement value, the added cost to the electricity consumer rises by less than 0.1 p/kW h. It is concluded that there does not appear to be any technical reason why a substantial proportion of the country's electricity requirements could not be delivered by wind

Estimating total evaporation at the field scale using the SEBS model ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Estimating total evaporation at the field scale using the SEBS model and data infilling ... of two infilling techniques to create a daily satellite-derived ET time series. ... and produced R2 and RMSE values of 0.33 and 2.19 mm∙d-1, respectively, ...

Estimation of total body water by bioelectrical impedance analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kushner, R.F.; Schoeller, D.A.

1986-01-01

Total body water (TBW) measured by bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) was directly compared with deuterium-isotope dilution in a total of 58 subjects. First, sex-specific and group equations were developed by multiple regression analysis in (10 each) obese and nonobese men and women. Height/resistive impedance was the most significant variable used to predict deuterium-dilution space (D2O-TBW) and, combined with weight, yielded R = 0.99 and SE of estimate = 1.75 L. Equations predicted D2O-TBW equally well for obese and nonobese subjects. Second, the equations were prospectively tested in a heterogeneous group of 6 males and 12 females. Sex-specific equations predicted D2O-TBW with good correlation coefficients (0.96 and 0.93), total error (2.34 and 2.89 L), and a small difference between mean predicted and measured D2O-TBW (-1.4 +/- 2.05 and -0.48 +/- 2.83 L). BIA predicts D2O-TBW more accurately than weight, height, and/or age. A larger population is required to validate the applicability of our equations

Condition Number Regularized Covariance Estimation*

Science.gov (United States)

Won, Joong-Ho; Lim, Johan; Kim, Seung-Jean; Rajaratnam, Bala

2012-01-01

Estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices is known to be a difficult problem, has many applications, and is of current interest to the larger statistics community. In many applications including so-called the “large p small n” setting, the estimate of the covariance matrix is required to be not only invertible, but also well-conditioned. Although many regularization schemes attempt to do this, none of them address the ill-conditioning problem directly. In this paper, we propose a maximum likelihood approach, with the direct goal of obtaining a well-conditioned estimator. No sparsity assumption on either the covariance matrix or its inverse are are imposed, thus making our procedure more widely applicable. We demonstrate that the proposed regularization scheme is computationally efficient, yields a type of Steinian shrinkage estimator, and has a natural Bayesian interpretation. We investigate the theoretical properties of the regularized covariance estimator comprehensively, including its regularization path, and proceed to develop an approach that adaptively determines the level of regularization that is required. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of the regularized estimator in decision-theoretic comparisons and in the financial portfolio optimization setting. The proposed approach has desirable properties, and can serve as a competitive procedure, especially when the sample size is small and when a well-conditioned estimator is required. PMID:23730197

Coded-Wire Tag Expansion Factors for Chinook Salmon Carcass Surveys in California: Estimating the Numbers and Proportions of Hatchery-Origin Fish

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael S. Mohr

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Recovery of fish with adipose fin clips (adc and coded-wire tags (cwt in escapement surveys allows calculation of expansion factors used in estimation of the total number of fish from each adc,cwt release group, allowing escapement to be resolved by age and stock of origin. Expanded recoveries are used to derive important estimates such as the total number and proportion of hatchery-origin fish present. The standard estimation scheme assumes accurate visual classification of adc status, which can be problematic for decomposing carcasses. Failure to account for this potential misclassification can lead to significant estimation bias. We reviewed sample expansion factors used for the California Central Valley Chinook salmon 2010 carcass surveys in this context. For upper Sacramento River fall-run and late fall-run carcass surveys, the estimated proportions of adc,cwt fish for fresh and non-fresh carcasses differed substantially, likely from the under-recognition of adc fish in non-fresh carcasses. The resulting estimated proportions of hatchery-origin fish in the upper Sacramento River fall-run and late fall-run carcass surveys were 2.33 to 2.89 times higher if only fresh carcasses are considered. Similar biases can be avoided by consideration of only fresh carcasses for which determination of adc status is relatively straightforward; however, restricting the analysis entirely to fresh carcasses may limit precision because of reduced sample size, and is only possible if protocols for sampling and recording data ensure that the sample data and results for fresh carcasses can be extracted. Thus we recommend sampling protocols that are clearly documented and separately track fresh versus non-fresh carcasses, either collecting only definitively adc fish or that carefully track non-fresh carcasses that are definitively adc versus those that are possibly adc. This would allow judicious use of non-fresh carcass data when sample sizes are otherwise

Estimated Intakes and Sources of Total and Added Sugars in the Canadian Diet

OpenAIRE

Brisbois, Tristin D.; Marsden, Sandra L.; Anderson, G. Harvey; Sievenpiper, John L.

2014-01-01

National food supply data and dietary surveys are essential to estimate nutrient intakes and monitor trends, yet there are few published studies estimating added sugars consumption. The purpose of this report was to estimate and trend added sugars intakes and their contribution to total energy intake among Canadians by, first, using Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) nutrition survey data of intakes of sugars in foods and beverages, and second, using Statistics Canada availability data a...

TOTAL INFRARED LUMINOSITY ESTIMATION OF RESOLVED AND UNRESOLVED GALAXIES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boquien, M.; Calzetti, D.; Bendo, G.; Dale, D.; Engelbracht, C.; Kennicutt, R.; Lee, J. C.; Van Zee, L.; Moustakas, J.

2010-01-01

The total infrared (TIR) luminosity from galaxies can be used to examine both star formation and dust physics. We provide here new relations to estimate the TIR luminosity from various Spitzer bands, in particular from the 8 μm and 24 μm bands. To do so, we use data for 45'' subregions within a subsample of nearby face-on spiral galaxies from the Spitzer Infrared Nearby Galaxies Survey (SINGS) that have known oxygen abundances as well as integrated galaxy data from the SINGS, the Local Volume Legacy survey (LVL), and Engelbracht et al. samples. Taking into account the oxygen abundances of the subregions, the star formation rate intensity, and the relative emission of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons at 8 μm, the warm dust at 24 μm, and the cold dust at 70 μm and 160 μm, we derive new relations to estimate the TIR luminosity from just one or two of the Spitzer bands. We also show that the metallicity and the star formation intensity must be taken into account when estimating the TIR luminosity from two wave bands, especially when data longward of 24 μm are not available.

Effect of Medium Symmetries in Limiting the Number of Parameters Estimated with Polarimetric Interferometry

Science.gov (United States)

Moghaddam, Mahta

2000-01-01

The addition of interferometric backscattering pairs to the conventional polarimetric SAR data over forests and other vegetated areas increases the dimensionality of the data space, in principle enabling the estimation of a larger number of vegetation parameters. Without regard to the sensitivity of these data to vegetation scattering parameters, this paper poses the question: Will increasing the data channels as such result in a one-to-one increase in the number of parameters that can be estimated, or do vegetation and data properties inherently limit that number otherwise? In this paper, the complete polarimetric interferometric covariance matrix is considered and various symmetry properties of the scattering medium are used to study whether any of the correlation pairs can be eliminated. The number of independent pairs has direct consequences in their utility in parameter estimation schemes, since the maximum number of parameters that can be estimated cannot exceed the number of unique measurements. The independent components of the polarimetric interferometric SAR (POL/INSAR) data are derived for media with reflection, rotation, and azimuth symmetries, which are often encountered in vegetated surfaces. Similar derivations have been carried out before for simple polarimetry, i.e., zero baseline. This paper extends those to the interferometric case of general nonzero baselines. It is shown that depending on the type of symmetries present, the number of independent available measurements that can be used to estimate medium parameters will vary. In particular, whereas in the general case there are 27 mathematically independent measurements possible from a polarimetric interferometer, this number can be reduced to 15, 9, and 6 if the medium has reflection, rotation, or azimuthal symmetries, respectively. The results can be used in several ways in the interpretation of SAR data and the development of parameter estimation schemes, which will be discussed at the

Estimation of total error in DWPF reported radionuclide inventories. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards, T.B.

1995-01-01

The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) at the Savannah River Site is required to determine and report the radionuclide inventory of its glass product. For each macro-batch, the DWPF will report both the total amount (in curies) of each reportable radionuclide and the average concentration (in curies/gram of glass) of each reportable radionuclide. The DWPF is to provide the estimated error of these reported values of its radionuclide inventory as well. The objective of this document is to provide a framework for determining the estimated error in DWPF's reporting of these radionuclide inventories. This report investigates the impact of random errors due to measurement and sampling on the total amount of each reportable radionuclide in a given macro-batch. In addition, the impact of these measurement and sampling errors and process variation are evaluated to determine the uncertainty in the reported average concentrations of radionuclides in DWPF's filled canister inventory resulting from each macro-batch

Calculation of total number of disintegrations after intake of radioactive nuclides using the pseudo inverse matrix

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noh, Si Wan; Sol, Jeong; Lee, Jai Ki; Lee, Jong Il; Kim, Jang Lyul

2012-01-01

Calculation of total number of disintegrations after intake of radioactive nuclides is indispensable to calculate a dose coefficient which means committed effective dose per unit activity (Sv/Bq). In order to calculate the total number of disintegrations analytically, Birch all's algorithm has been commonly used. As described below, an inverse matrix should be calculated in the algorithm. As biokinetic models have been complicated, however, the inverse matrix does not exist sometime and the total number of disintegrations cannot be calculated. Thus, a numerical method has been applied to DCAL code used to calculate dose coefficients in ICRP publication and IMBA code. In this study, however, we applied the pseudo inverse matrix to solve the problem that the inverse matrix does not exist for. In order to validate our method, the method was applied to two examples and the results were compared to the tabulated data in ICRP publication. MATLAB 2012a was used to calculate the total number of disintegrations and exp m and p inv MATLAB built in functions were employed

Monitoring of German Fertility: Estimation of Monthly and Yearly Total Fertility Rates on the Basis of Preliminary Monthly Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriele Doblhammer

2011-02-01

Full Text Available This paper introduces a set of methods for estimating fertility indicators in the absence of recent and short-term birth statistics. For Germany, we propose a set of straightforward methods that allow for the computation of monthly and yearly total fertility rates (mTFR on the basis of preliminary monthly data, including a confidence interval. The method for estimating most current fertility rates can be applied when no information on the age structure and the number of women exposed to childbearing is available. The methods introduced in this study are useful for calculating monthly birth indicators, with minimal requirements for data quality and statistical effort. In addition, we suggest an approach for projecting the yearly TFR based on preliminary monthly information up to June.

Efforts to Support Consumer Enrollment Decisions Using Total Cost Estimators: Lessons from the Affordable Care Act’s Marketplaces.

Science.gov (United States)

Giovannelli, Justin; Curran, Emily

2017-02-01

Issue: Policymakers have sought to improve the shopping experience on the Affordable Care Act’s marketplaces by offering decision support tools that help consumers better understand and compare their health plan options. Cost estimators are one such tool. They are designed to provide consumers a personalized estimate of the total cost--premium, minus subsidy, plus cost-sharing--of their coverage options. Cost estimators were available in most states by the start of the fourth open enrollment period. Goal: To understand the experiences of marketplaces that offer a total cost estimator and the interests and concerns of policymakers from states that are not using them. Methods: Structured interviews with marketplace officials, consumer enrollment assisters, technology vendors, and subject matter experts; analysis of the total cost estimators available on the marketplaces as of October 2016. Key findings and conclusions: Informants strongly supported marketplace adoption of a total cost estimator. Marketplaces that offer an estimator faced a range of design choices and varied significantly in their approaches to resolving them. Interviews suggested a clear need for additional consumer testing and data analysis of tool usage and for sustained outreach to enrollment assisters to encourage greater use of the estimators.

Heart failure in numbers: Estimates for the 21st century in Portugal.

Science.gov (United States)

Fonseca, Cândida; Brás, Daniel; Araújo, Inês; Ceia, Fátima

2018-02-01

Heart failure is a major public health problem that affects a large number of individuals and is associated with high mortality and morbidity. This study aims to estimate the probable scenario for HF prevalence and its consequences in the short-, medium- and long-term in Portugal. This assessment is based on the EPICA (Epidemiology of Heart Failure and Learning) project, which was designed to estimate the prevalence of chronic heart failure in mainland Portugal in 1998. Estimates of heart failure prevalence were performed for individuals aged over 25 years, distributed by age group and gender, based on data from the 2011 Census by Statistics Portugal. The expected demographic changes, particularly the marked aging of the population, mean that a large number of Portuguese will likely be affected by this syndrome. Assuming that current clinical practices are maintained, the prevalence of heart failure in mainland Portugal will increase by 30% by 2035 and by 33% by 2060, compared to 2011, resulting in 479 921 and 494 191 affected individuals, respectively. In addition to the large number of heart failure patients expected, it is estimated that the hospitalizations and mortality associated with this syndrome will significantly increase its economic impact. Therefore, it is extremely important to raise awareness of this syndrome, as this will favor diagnosis and early referral of patients, facilitating better management of heart failure and helping to decrease the burden it imposes on Portugal. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Estimating Total Discharge in the Yangtze River Basin Using Satellite-Based Observations

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Samuel A. Andam‑Akorful

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The measurement of total basin discharge along coastal regions is necessary for understanding the hydrological and oceanographic issues related to the water and energy cycles. However, only the observed streamflow (gauge-based observation is used to estimate the total fluxes from the river basin to the ocean, neglecting the portion of discharge that infiltrates to underground and directly discharges into the ocean. Hence, the aim of this study is to assess the total discharge of the Yangtze River (Chang Jiang basin. In this study, we explore the potential response of total discharge to changes in precipitation (from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission—TRMM, evaporation (from four versions of the Global Land Data Assimilation—GLDAS, namely, CLM, Mosaic, Noah and VIC, and water-storage changes (from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment—GRACE by using the terrestrial water budget method. This method has been validated by comparison with the observed streamflow, and shows an agreement with a root mean square error (RMSE of 14.30 mm/month for GRACE-based discharge and 20.98 mm/month for that derived from precipitation minus evaporation (P − E. This improvement of approximately 32% indicates that monthly terrestrial water-storage changes, as estimated by GRACE, cannot be considered negligible over Yangtze basin. The results for the proposed method are more accurate than the results previously reported in the literature.

Estimation of the total absorbed dose by quartz in retrospective conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Correcher, V.; Delgado, A.

2003-01-01

The estimation of the total absorbed dose is of great interest in areas affected by a radiological accident when no conventional dosimetric systems are available. This paper reports about the usual methodology employed in dose reconstruction from the thermoluminescence (TL) properties of natural quartz, extracted from selected ceramic materials (12 bricks) picked up in the Chernobyl area. It has been possible to evaluate doses under 50mGy after more than 11 years later since the radiological accident happened. The main advance of this fact is the reduction of the commonly accepted limit dose estimation more than 20 times employing luminescence methods. (Author) 11 refs

Estimating the number of latent cracks in pressure tube joints at Bruce unit 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwarz, C.J.

1983-10-01

A model was built to estimate the number of hydride cracks which might have arisen in the rolled joints of Bruce unit 2 prior to the stress relieving operation. The model estimated that about 100 such cracks might exist. Since this estimate is based on experiments that were thermally cycled and since cycling did not occur in Bruce, prior to stress relieving the actual number is expected to be substantially lower. A sensitivity analysis of the model showed that it is sensitive to the assumptions of stress levels, probability of initiation and distribution of initiation time. A better estimate could be made if more data were available on these parameters under realistic conditions. Therefore, the recommendation is made to collect more information about these factors under realistic conditions

Big Numbers about Small Children: Estimating the Economic Benefits of Addressing Undernutrition.

Science.gov (United States)

Alderman, Harold; Behrman, Jere R; Puett, Chloe

2017-02-01

Different approaches have been used to estimate the economic benefits of reducing undernutrition and to estimate the costs of investing in such programs on a global scale. While many of these studies are ultimately based on evidence from well-designed efficacy trials, all require a number of assumptions to project the impact of such trials to larger populations and to translate the value of the expected improvement in nutritional status into economic terms. This paper provides a short critique of some approaches to estimating the benefits of investments in child nutrition and then presents an alternative set of estimates based on different core data. These new estimates reinforce the basic conclusions of the existing literature: the economic value from reducing undernutrition in undernourished populations is likely to be substantial.

A robust estimate of the number and characteristics of persons released from prison in Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Avery, Alex; Kinner, Stuart A

2015-08-01

To estimate the number and characteristics of adults released from prison in Australia. We calculated ratios, stratified by age, sex and Indigenous status, by comparing the number of persons released from prison in New South Wales (NSW), with the number in NSW prisons on 30 June of the corresponding year. These stratified ratios were applied to Australia-wide prison data to estimate the number and characteristics of persons released annually. We estimated that in 2013, 38,576 persons were released from prison in Australia - 25.3% more than the daily prison population. Young people, Indigenous people and women were over-represented among those released. We estimated that 3.69 Indigenous women aged 18-24 were released annually for each equivalent person in prison; and 2.75 non-Indigenous women aged 18-24 were released annually for each equivalent person in prison. The annual 'flow' through Australia's prisons is well in excess of the daily number, but information on those moving through prison systems is not yet publicly available. The characteristics of those released from prison differ meaningfully from those of people in prison. Routine, national reporting of prison separations is critical to informing upscaling and targeting of Throughcare services for this profoundly vulnerable population. © 2015 Public Health Association of Australia.

Improved estimates of filtered total mercury loadings and total mercury concentrations of solids from potential sources to Sinclair Inlet, Kitsap County, Washington

Science.gov (United States)

Paulson, Anthony J.; Conn, Kathleen E.; DeWild, John F.

2013-01-01

Previous investigations examined sources and sinks of mercury to Sinclair Inlet based on historic and new data. This included an evaluation of mercury concentrations from various sources and mercury loadings from industrial discharges and groundwater flowing from the Bremerton naval complex to Sinclair Inlet. This report provides new data from four potential sources of mercury to Sinclair Inlet: (1) filtered and particulate total mercury concentrations of creek water during the wet season, (2) filtered and particulate total mercury releases from the Navy steam plant following changes in the water softening process and discharge operations, (3) release of mercury from soils to groundwater in two landfill areas at the Bremerton naval complex, and (4) total mercury concentrations of solids in dry dock sumps that were not affected by bias from sequential sampling. The previous estimate of the loading of filtered total mercury from Sinclair Inlet creeks was based solely on dry season samples. Concentrations of filtered total mercury in creek samples collected during wet weather were significantly higher than dry weather concentrations, which increased the estimated loading of filtered total mercury from creek basins from 27.1 to 78.1 grams per year. Changes in the concentrations and loading of filtered and particulate total mercury in the effluent of the steam plant were investigated after the water softening process was changed from ion-exchange to reverse osmosis and the discharge of stack blow-down wash began to be diverted to the municipal water-treatment plant. These changes reduced the concentrations of filtered and particulate total mercury from the steam plant of the Bremerton naval complex, which resulted in reduced loadings of filtered total mercury from 5.9 to 0.15 grams per year. Previous investigations identified three fill areas on the Bremerton naval complex, of which the western fill area is thought to be the largest source of mercury on the base

Estimating marine aerosol particle volume and number from Maritime Aerosol Network data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. M. Sayer

2012-09-01

Full Text Available As well as spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD, aerosol composition and concentration (number, volume, or mass are of interest for a variety of applications. However, remote sensing of these quantities is more difficult than for AOD, as it is more sensitive to assumptions relating to aerosol composition. This study uses spectral AOD measured on Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN cruises, with the additional constraint of a microphysical model for unpolluted maritime aerosol based on analysis of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET inversions, to estimate these quantities over open ocean. When the MAN data are subset to those likely to be comprised of maritime aerosol, number and volume concentrations obtained are physically reasonable. Attempts to estimate surface concentration from columnar abundance, however, are shown to be limited by uncertainties in vertical distribution. Columnar AOD at 550 nm and aerosol number for unpolluted maritime cases are also compared with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS data, for both the present Collection 5.1 and forthcoming Collection 6. MODIS provides a best-fitting retrieval solution, as well as the average for several different solutions, with different aerosol microphysical models. The "average solution" MODIS dataset agrees more closely with MAN than the "best solution" dataset. Terra tends to retrieve lower aerosol number than MAN, and Aqua higher, linked with differences in the aerosol models commonly chosen. Collection 6 AOD is likely to agree more closely with MAN over open ocean than Collection 5.1. In situations where spectral AOD is measured accurately, and aerosol microphysical properties are reasonably well-constrained, estimates of aerosol number and volume using MAN or similar data would provide for a greater variety of potential comparisons with aerosol properties derived from satellite or chemistry transport model data. However, without accurate AOD data and prior knowledge of

Estimating the Number of Organ Donors in Australian Hospitals—Implications for Monitoring Organ Donation Practices

Science.gov (United States)

Pilcher, David; Gladkis, Laura; Arcia, Byron; Bailey, Michael; Cook, David; Cass, Yael; Opdam, Helen

2015-01-01

Background The Australian DonateLife Audit captures information on all deaths which occur in emergency departments, intensive care units and in those recently discharged from intensive care unit. This information provides the opportunity to estimate the number of donors expected, given present consent rates and contemporary donation practices. This may then allow benchmarking of performance between hospitals and jurisdictions. Our aim was to develop a method to estimate the number of donors using data from the DonateLife Audit on the basis of baseline patient characteristics alone. Methods All intubated patient deaths at contributing hospitals were analyzed. Univariate comparisons of donors to nondonors were performed. A logistic regression model was developed to estimate expected donor numbers from data collected between July 2012 and December 2013. This was validated using data from January to April 2014. Results Between July 2012 and April 2014, 6861 intubated patient deaths at 68 hospitals were listed on the DonateLife Audit of whom 553 (8.1%) were organ donors. Factors independently associated with organ donation included age, brain death, neurological diagnoses, chest x-ray findings, PaO2/FiO2, creatinine, alanine transaminase, cancer, cardiac arrest, chronic heart disease, and peripheral vascular disease. A highly discriminatory (area under the receiver operatory characteristic, 0.940 [95% confidence interval, 0.924-0.957]) and well-calibrated prediction model was developed which accurately estimated donor numbers. Three hospitals appeared to have higher numbers of actual donors than expected. Conclusions It is possible to estimate the expected number of organ donors. This may assist benchmarking of donation outcomes and interpretation of changes in donation rates over time. PMID:25919766

Root form and clinical radiographic estimation of the number of root ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The root form of 100 extracted maxillary premolars, the pre-operative radiographic estimation and clinical radiographic determination of the number of root canals in 340 maxillary premolars of Nigerian patients attending the dental hospital for endodontic treatment were studied. The maxillary second premolars had one root ...

Uncertainty estimation with a small number of measurements, part II: a redefinition of uncertainty and an estimator method

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Hening

2018-01-01

This paper is the second (Part II) in a series of two papers (Part I and Part II). Part I has quantitatively discussed the fundamental limitations of the t-interval method for uncertainty estimation with a small number of measurements. This paper (Part II) reveals that the t-interval is an ‘exact’ answer to a wrong question; it is actually misused in uncertainty estimation. This paper proposes a redefinition of uncertainty, based on the classical theory of errors and the theory of point estimation, and a modification of the conventional approach to estimating measurement uncertainty. It also presents an asymptotic procedure for estimating the z-interval. The proposed modification is to replace the t-based uncertainty with an uncertainty estimator (mean- or median-unbiased). The uncertainty estimator method is an approximate answer to the right question to uncertainty estimation. The modified approach provides realistic estimates of uncertainty, regardless of whether the population standard deviation is known or unknown, or if the sample size is small or large. As an application example of the modified approach, this paper presents a resolution to the Du-Yang paradox (i.e. Paradox 2), one of the three paradoxes caused by the misuse of the t-interval in uncertainty estimation.

Estimation of total amounts of anthropogenic radionuclides in the Japan Sea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ito, Toshimichi; Otosaka, Shigeyoshi; Kawamura, Hideyuki

2007-01-01

We estimated the total amounts of anthropogenic radionuclides, consisting of 90 Sr, 137 Cs, and 239+240 Pu, in the Japan Sea for the first time based on experimental data on their concentrations in seawater and seabed sediment. The radionuclide inventories in seawater and seabed sediment at each sampling site varied depending on the water depth, with total inventories for 90 Sr, 137 Cs, and 239+240 Pu in the range of 0.52-2.8 kBq m -2 , 0.64-4.1 kBq m -2 , and 27-122 Bq m -2 , respectively. Based on the relationship between the inventories and the water depths, the total amounts in the Japan Sea were estimated to be about 1.2±0.4 PBq for 90 Sr, 1.8±0.7 PBq for 137 Cs, and 69±14 TBq for 239+240 Pu, respectively; the amount ratio, 90 Sr: 137 Cs: 239+240 Pu, was 1.0:1.6:0.059. The amounts of 90 Sr and 137 Cs in the Japan Sea were in balance with those supplied from global fallout, whereas the amount of 239+240 Pu exceeded that supplied by fallout by nearly 40%. These results suggest a preferential accumulation of the plutonium isotopes. The data used in this study were obtained through a wide-area research project, named the 'Japan Sea expeditions (phase I),' covering the Japanese and Russian exclusive economic zones. (author)

A new estimation method for nuclide number densities in equilibrium cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seino, Takeshi; Sekimoto, Hiroshi; Ando, Yoshihira.

1997-01-01

A new method is proposed for estimating nuclide number densities of LWR equilibrium cycle by multi-recycling calculation. Conventionally, it is necessary to spend a large computation time for attaining the ultimate equilibrium state. Hence, the cycle in nearly constant fuel composition has been considered as an equilibrium state which can be achieved by a few of recycling calculations on a simulated cycle operation under a specific fuel core design. The present method uses steady state fuel nuclide number densities as the initial guess for multi-recycling burnup calculation obtained by a continuously fuel supplied core model. The number densities are modified to be the initial number densities for nuclides of a batch supplied fuel. It was found that the calculated number densities could attain to more precise equilibrium state than that of a conventional multi-recycling calculation with a small number of recyclings. In particular, the present method could give the ultimate equilibrium number densities of the nuclides with the higher mass number than 245 Cm and 244 Pu which were not able to attain to the ultimate equilibrium state within a reasonable number of iterations using a conventional method. (author)

Using cross-sectional surveys to estimate the number of severely malnourished children needing to be enrolled in specific treatment programmes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dale, Nancy M; Myatt, Mark; Prudhon, Claudine

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVE: When planning severe acute malnutrition (SAM) treatment services, estimates of the number of children requiring treatment are needed. Prevalence surveys, used with population estimates, can directly estimate the number of prevalent cases but not the number of subsequent incident cases...... in different contexts. DESIGN: Observational study, with J estimated by correlating expected numbers of children to be treated, based on prevalence surveys, population estimates and assumed coverage, with the observed numbers of SAM patients treated. SETTING: Survey and programme data from six African...

A user's manual of Tools for Error Estimation of Complex Number Matrix Computation (Ver.1.0)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ichihara, Kiyoshi.

1997-03-01

'Tools for Error Estimation of Complex Number Matrix Computation' is a subroutine library which aids the users in obtaining the error ranges of the complex number linear system's solutions or the Hermitian matrices' eigen values. This library contains routines for both sequential computers and parallel computers. The subroutines for linear system error estimation calulate norms of residual vectors, matrices's condition numbers, error bounds of solutions and so on. The error estimation subroutines for Hermitian matrix eigen values' derive the error ranges of the eigen values according to the Korn-Kato's formula. This user's manual contains a brief mathematical background of error analysis on linear algebra and usage of the subroutines. (author)

Indicators for estimating the total apparent digestibility in horses Indicadores para estimativa da digestibilidade aparente total em equinos

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roberta Ariboni Brandi

2011-03-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study to evaluate various indicators to estimate the total nutrient digestibility in horses. We used four adult mares, breed, grouped in a 4 x 4 Latin square balanced fed diets containing equal parts of hay Tifton 85 (Cynodon sp and concentrated experimental containing corn subjected to four processes: a diet containing ground corn ; flaked corn diet 2, 3 rolled corn, and 4 extruded corn. The weighting coefficient of digestibility of nutrients by the indicators was done through the bias. The accuracy and precision were determined by comparing the predicted and observed data, and the robustness of the biases by comparing with other factors studied. The chromic oxide methods showed similar values of apparent digestibility of nutrients when compared to the total collection method. We observed higher accuracy for the acid detergent lignin as compared to the other indicators tested. However, the acid detergent lignin underestimated the digestibility of nutrients when compared to the total collection. The acid detergent insoluble ash overestimated the digestibility of nutrients when compared to the total collection. The chromic oxide is presented as a better indicator for estimating the total apparent digestibility in horses due to its higher accuracy among the markers evaluated.Objetivou-se neste estudo avaliar diferentes indicadores para estimativa das digestibilidades aparente total em equinos. Foram utilizadas quatro éguas adultas, sem raça definida, agrupadas em um quadrado latino 4 x 4 balanceado, alimentadas com dietas que continham partes iguais de feno da gramínea Tifton 85 (Cynodon sp e concentrado experimental que continha milho submetido a quatro processamentos: dieta um milho triturado; dieta dois milho floculado; dieta três milho laminado e dieta quatro milho extrusado. A ponderação dos coeficientes de digestibilidade dos nutrientes pelos indicadores foi efetuada por meio do viés. A acurácia e a precis

Total radiative width (Γγ) as a function of mass number A

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huynh, V.D.; Barros, S. De; Chevillon, P.L.; Julien, J.; Poittevin, G. Le; Morgenstern, J.; Samour, C.

1967-01-01

The total radiative width Γ γ was measured accurately for a large number of nuclei. These values, which are important for reactor calculations, are difficult to determine. The fluctuations in Γ γ from resonance to resonance in the same nucleus are discussed in terms of level parity and the de-excitation scheme. The authors compare the experimental values with those predicted by theory. (author) [fr

Total decay heat estimates in a proto-type fast reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sridharan, M.S.

2003-01-01

Full text: In this paper, total decay heat values generated in a proto-type fast reactor are estimated. These values are compared with those of certain fast reactors. Simple analytical fits are also obtained for these values which can serve as a handy and convenient tool in engineering design studies. These decay heat values taken as their ratio to the nominal operating power are, in general, applicable to any typical plutonium based fast reactor and are useful inputs to the design of decay-heat removal systems

Comparison of three persulfate digestion methods for total phosphorus analysis and estimation of suspended sediments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dayton, Elizabeth Ann; Whitacre, Shane; Holloman, Christopher

2017-01-01

As a result of impairments to fresh surface water quality due to phosphorus enrichment, substantial research effort has been put forth to quantify agricultural runoff phosphorus as related to on-field practices. While the analysis of runoff dissolved phosphorus is well prescribed and leaves little room for variability in methodology, there are several methods and variations of sample preparation reagents as well as analysis procedures for determining runoff total phosphorus. Due to the variation in methodology for determination of total phosphorus and an additional laboratory procedure required to measure suspended solids, the objectives of the current study are to i. compare the performance of three persulfate digestion methods (Acid Persulfate, USGS, and Alkaline Persulfate) for total phosphorus percent recovery across a wide range of suspended sediments (SS), and ii. evaluate the ability of using Al and/or Fe in digestion solution to predict SS as a surrogate to the traditional gravimetric method. Percent recovery of total phosphorus was determined using suspensions prepared from soils collected from 21 agricultural fields in Ohio. The Acid Persulfate method was most effective, with an average total phosphorus percent recovery of 96.6%. The second most effective method was the USGS with an average total phosphorus recovery of 76.1%. However, the Alkaline Persulfate method performed poorly with an average 24.5% total phosphorus recovery. As a result application of Alkaline Persulfate digestion to edge of field monitoring may drastically underestimated runoff total phosphorus. In addition to excellent recovery of total phosphorus, the Acid Persulfate method combined with analysis of Al and Fe by inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry provides a robust estimate of total SS. Due to the large quantity of samples that can result from water quality monitoring, an indirect measure of total SS could be very valuable when time and budget constraints limit

The Effect of Overweight Status on Total and Metastatic Number of Harvested Lymph Nodes During Colorectal Surgery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sezgin Zeren

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study is to evaluate the rela­tionship between higher body mass index (BMI and har­vested total or metastatic lymph node numbers in patients who underwent surgery for colorectal cancers. Methods: Between March 2014 and January 2016, totally 71patients who underwent laparoscopic or conventional surgery for colorectal cancer were evaluated retrospec­tively. The data of age, gender, BMI, surgical procedure, tumor localization , postoperative mortality status, total number of harvested and metastatic lymph node were collected. The patients having 24.9 (kg/m2 or lower BMI values were classified as normal (Group 1 and patients having BMI values of 25 or over were overweight (Group 2. Afterwards, the parameters between groups and the effect of higher BMI were analyzed. Results: The mean age of the patients was 64.5 ± 14 years. The average BMI value in group 1 was 22.3 (kg/m2 and 27.0 (kg/m2 in group 2. According to localisation of tumor, transverse colon was the rare region for both groups. The common regions for tumor localisation in group 1 were right colon, sigmoid colon and rectum. In group 2 the common localisation for tumors were rectum, right colon and sigmoid colon. There was no difference between groups about postoperative mortality rates (p > 0.05. The mean of the total number of harvested lymph nodes were 14 in group 1 and 12 in group 2. There were no relationship between BMI and tumor diameter, total or metastatic number of harvested lymph nodes. Conclusion: Higher BMI values does not effect the num­ber of excised total or metastatic lymph nodes and tumor diameters. Therefore, the surgeons should not hesitate in overweight patients cancer surgery for dissecting ad­equate number of lymph nodes.

On the total number of genes and their length distribution in complete microbial genomes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skovgaard, M; Jensen, L J; Brunak, S

2001-01-01

In sequenced microbial genomes, some of the annotated genes are actually not protein-coding genes, but rather open reading frames that occur by chance. Therefore, the number of annotated genes is higher than the actual number of genes for most of these microbes. Comparison of the length distribut......In sequenced microbial genomes, some of the annotated genes are actually not protein-coding genes, but rather open reading frames that occur by chance. Therefore, the number of annotated genes is higher than the actual number of genes for most of these microbes. Comparison of the length...... distribution of the annotated genes with the length distribution of those matching a known protein reveals that too many short genes are annotated in many genomes. Here we estimate the true number of protein-coding genes for sequenced genomes. Although it is often claimed that Escherichia coli has about 4300...... genes, we show that it probably has only approximately 3800 genes, and that a similar discrepancy exists for almost all published genomes....

Predicting the outcome of chronic kidney disease by the estimated nephron number: The rationale and design of PRONEP, a prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study

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Imasawa Toshiyuki

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The nephron number is thought to be associated with the outcome of chronic kidney disease (CKD. If the nephron number can be estimated in the clinical setting, it could become a strong tool to predict renal outcome. This study was designed to estimate the nephron number in CKD patients and to establish a method to predict the outcome by using the estimated nephron number. Methods/Design The hypothesis of this study is that the estimated nephron number can predict the outcome of a CKD patient. This will be a multicenter, prospective (minimum 3 and maximum 5 years follow-up study. The subjects will comprise CKD patients aged over 14 years who have undergone a kidney biopsy. From January 2011 to March 2013, we will recruit 600 CKD patients from 10 hospitals belonging to the National Hospital Organization of Japan. The primary parameter for assessment is the composite of total mortality, renal death, cerebro-cardiovascular events, and a 50% reduction in the eGFR. The secondary parameter is the rate of eGFR decline per year. The nephron number will be estimated by the glomerular density in biopsy specimens and the renal cortex volume. This study includes one sub-cohort study to establish the equation to calculate the renal cortex volume. Enrollment will be performed at the time of the kidney biopsy, and the data will consist of a medical interview, ultrasound for measurement of the kidney size, blood or urine test, and the pathological findings of the kidney biopsy. Patients will continue to have medical consultations and receive examinations and/or treatment as usual. The data from the patients will be collected once a year after the kidney biopsy until March 2016. All data using this study are easily obtained in routine clinical practice. Discussion This study includes the first trials to estimate the renal cortex volume and nephron number in the general clinical setting. Furthermore, this is the first prospective study to

Estimation of surface area concentration of workplace incidental nanoparticles based on number and mass concentrations

Science.gov (United States)

Park, J. Y.; Ramachandran, G.; Raynor, P. C.; Kim, S. W.

2011-10-01

Surface area was estimated by three different methods using number and/or mass concentrations obtained from either two or three instruments that are commonly used in the field. The estimated surface area concentrations were compared with reference surface area concentrations (SAREF) calculated from the particle size distributions obtained from a scanning mobility particle sizer and an optical particle counter (OPC). The first estimation method (SAPSD) used particle size distribution measured by a condensation particle counter (CPC) and an OPC. The second method (SAINV1) used an inversion routine based on PM1.0, PM2.5, and number concentrations to reconstruct assumed lognormal size distributions by minimizing the difference between measurements and calculated values. The third method (SAINV2) utilized a simpler inversion method that used PM1.0 and number concentrations to construct a lognormal size distribution with an assumed value of geometric standard deviation. All estimated surface area concentrations were calculated from the reconstructed size distributions. These methods were evaluated using particle measurements obtained in a restaurant, an aluminum die-casting factory, and a diesel engine laboratory. SAPSD was 0.7-1.8 times higher and SAINV1 and SAINV2 were 2.2-8 times higher than SAREF in the restaurant and diesel engine laboratory. In the die casting facility, all estimated surface area concentrations were lower than SAREF. However, the estimated surface area concentration using all three methods had qualitatively similar exposure trends and rankings to those using SAREF within a workplace. This study suggests that surface area concentration estimation based on particle size distribution (SAPSD) is a more accurate and convenient method to estimate surface area concentrations than estimation methods using inversion routines and may be feasible to use for classifying exposure groups and identifying exposure trends.

Estimation of surface area concentration of workplace incidental nanoparticles based on number and mass concentrations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, J. Y.; Ramachandran, G.; Raynor, P. C.; Kim, S. W.

2011-01-01

Surface area was estimated by three different methods using number and/or mass concentrations obtained from either two or three instruments that are commonly used in the field. The estimated surface area concentrations were compared with reference surface area concentrations (SA REF ) calculated from the particle size distributions obtained from a scanning mobility particle sizer and an optical particle counter (OPC). The first estimation method (SA PSD ) used particle size distribution measured by a condensation particle counter (CPC) and an OPC. The second method (SA INV1 ) used an inversion routine based on PM1.0, PM2.5, and number concentrations to reconstruct assumed lognormal size distributions by minimizing the difference between measurements and calculated values. The third method (SA INV2 ) utilized a simpler inversion method that used PM1.0 and number concentrations to construct a lognormal size distribution with an assumed value of geometric standard deviation. All estimated surface area concentrations were calculated from the reconstructed size distributions. These methods were evaluated using particle measurements obtained in a restaurant, an aluminum die-casting factory, and a diesel engine laboratory. SA PSD was 0.7–1.8 times higher and SA INV1 and SA INV2 were 2.2–8 times higher than SA REF in the restaurant and diesel engine laboratory. In the die casting facility, all estimated surface area concentrations were lower than SA REF . However, the estimated surface area concentration using all three methods had qualitatively similar exposure trends and rankings to those using SA REF within a workplace. This study suggests that surface area concentration estimation based on particle size distribution (SA PSD ) is a more accurate and convenient method to estimate surface area concentrations than estimation methods using inversion routines and may be feasible to use for classifying exposure groups and identifying exposure trends.

On the total number of genes and their length distribution in complete microbial genomes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skovgaard, Marie; Jensen, L.J.; Brunak, Søren

2001-01-01

In sequenced microbial genomes, some of the annotated genes are actually not protein-coding genes, but rather open reading frames that occur by chance. Therefore, the number of annotated genes is higher than the actual number of genes for most of these microbes. Comparison of the length...... distribution of the annotated genes with the length distribution of those matching a known protein reveals that too many short genes are annotated in many genomes. Here we estimate the true number of protein-coding genes for sequenced genomes. Although it is often claimed that Escherichia coli has about 4300...... genes, we show that it probably has only similar to 3800 genes, and that a similar discrepancy exists for almost all published genomes....

Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

1990-01-01

The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous...... abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...

Near-real-time Estimation and Forecast of Total Precipitable Water in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Bartholy, J.; Kern, A.; Barcza, Z.; Pongracz, R.; Ihasz, I.; Kovacs, R.; Ferencz, C.

2013-12-01

Information about the amount and spatial distribution of atmospheric water vapor (or total precipitable water) is essential for understanding weather and the environment including the greenhouse effect, the climate system with its feedbacks and the hydrological cycle. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models need accurate estimations of water vapor content to provide realistic forecasts including representation of clouds and precipitation. In the present study we introduce our research activity for the estimation and forecast of atmospheric water vapor in Central Europe using both observations and models. The Eötvös Loránd University (Hungary) operates a polar orbiting satellite receiving station in Budapest since 2002. This station receives Earth observation data from polar orbiting satellites including MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Direct Broadcast (DB) data stream from satellites Terra and Aqua. The received DB MODIS data are automatically processed using freely distributed software packages. Using the IMAPP Level2 software total precipitable water is calculated operationally using two different methods. Quality of the TPW estimations is a crucial question for further application of the results, thus validation of the remotely sensed total precipitable water fields is presented using radiosonde data. In a current research project in Hungary we aim to compare different estimations of atmospheric water vapor content. Within the frame of the project we use a NWP model (DBCRAS; Direct Broadcast CIMSS Regional Assimilation System numerical weather prediction software developed by the University of Wisconsin, Madison) to forecast TPW. DBCRAS uses near real time Level2 products from the MODIS data processing chain. From the wide range of the derived Level2 products the MODIS TPW parameter found within the so-called mod07 results (Atmospheric Profiles Product) and the cloud top pressure and cloud effective emissivity parameters from the so

Prognostic significance of the total number of harvested lymph nodes for lymph node-negative gastric cancer patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Ji, Xin; Bu, Zhao-De; Li, Zi-Yu; Wu, Ai-Wen; Zhang, Lian-Hai; Zhang, Ji; Wu, Xiao-Jiang; Zong, Xiang-Long; Li, Shuang-Xi; Shan, Fei; Jia, Zi-Yu; Ji, Jia-Fu

2017-08-22

The relationship between the number of harvested lymph nodes (HLNs) and prognosis of gastric cancer patients without an involvement of lymph nodes has not been well-evaluated. The objective of this study is to further explore this issue. We collected data from 399 gastric cancer patients between November 2006 and October 2011. All of them were without metastatic lymph nodes. Survival analyses showed that statistically significant differences existed in the survival outcomes between the two groups allocated by the total number of HLNs ranging from 16 to 22. Therefore, we adopted 22 as the cut-off value of the total number of HLNs for grouping (group A: HLNs <22; group B: HLNs≥22). The intraoperative and postoperative characteristics, including operative blood loss (P=0.096), operation time (P=0.430), postoperative hospital stay (P=0.142), complications (P=0.552), rate of reoperation (P=0.966) and postoperative mortality (P=1.000), were comparable between the two groups. T-stage-stratified Kaplan-Meier analyses revealed that the 5-year survival rate of patients at the T4 stage was better in group B than in group A (76.9% vs. 58.5%; P=0.004). An analysis of multiple factors elucidated that the total number of HLNs, T stage, operation time and age were independently correlated factors of prognosis. Regarding gastric cancer patients without the involvement of lymph nodes, an HLN number ≥22 would be helpful in prolonging their overall survival, especially for those at T4 stage. The total number of HLNs was an independent prognostic factor for this population of patients.

Binomial distribution of Poisson statistics and tracks overlapping probability to estimate total tracks count with low uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khayat, Omid; Afarideh, Hossein; Mohammadnia, Meisam

2015-01-01

In the solid state nuclear track detectors of chemically etched type, nuclear tracks with center-to-center neighborhood of distance shorter than two times the radius of tracks will emerge as overlapping tracks. Track overlapping in this type of detectors causes tracks count losses and it becomes rather severe in high track densities. Therefore, tracks counting in this condition should include a correction factor for count losses of different tracks overlapping orders since a number of overlapping tracks may be counted as one track. Another aspect of the problem is the cases where imaging the whole area of the detector and counting all tracks are not possible. In these conditions a statistical generalization method is desired to be applicable in counting a segmented area of the detector and the results can be generalized to the whole surface of the detector. Also there is a challenge in counting the tracks in densely overlapped tracks because not sufficient geometrical or contextual information are available. It this paper we present a statistical counting method which gives the user a relation between the tracks overlapping probabilities on a segmented area of the detector surface and the total number of tracks. To apply the proposed method one can estimate the total number of tracks on a solid state detector of arbitrary shape and dimensions by approximating the tracks averaged area, whole detector surface area and some orders of tracks overlapping probabilities. It will be shown that this method is applicable in high and ultra high density tracks images and the count loss error can be enervated using a statistical generalization approach. - Highlights: • A correction factor for count losses of different tracks overlapping orders. • For the cases imaging the whole area of the detector is not possible. • Presenting a statistical generalization method for segmented areas. • Giving a relation between the tracks overlapping probabilities and the total tracks

Estimation of basic reproductive number of flu-like syndrome in a primary school in Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

AliAkbar Haghdoost

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Iran, similar to other countries, had faced H1N1 flu outbreak in 2009. In order to assess its transmission dynamic, we estimated its force of infection (β and basic reproductive number (R 0 . Methods: Within a middle size primary school in Iran, we actively followed students and detected flu-like syndrome among students and their families in the first three months of academic year; October through December 2009. We estimated the probability of disease transmission within families (β fitting random effects Poisson regression model. Moreover, R 0 within the school was computed based on the number of detected cases. Results: In 452 students, 204 influenza-like syndromes were detected. The estimated β within families was 0.10; increasing one infectious member within each family was associated with 30% increase in this number. The estimated R 0 for the first month was 1.21 (95% C.I.: 0.99, 1.47; corresponding numbers for the first two and first three months were 1.28 (95% C.I.: 1.05, 1.54 and 1.32 (95% C.I.: 1.11, 1.59, respectively. Conclusion: It seems that the dynamic transmission of H1N1 virus was more or less comparable with that in other seasonal species. Our findings showed that the virus mainly circulated among students within schools. In addition, it seems that the transmission rate within families was relatively high.

How Do Different Aspects of Spatial Skills Relate to Early Arithmetic and Number Line Estimation?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Véronique Cornu

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The present study investigated the predictive role of spatial skills for arithmetic and number line estimation in kindergarten children (N = 125. Spatial skills are known to be related to mathematical development, but due to the construct’s non-unitary nature, different aspects of spatial skills need to be differentiated. In the present study, a spatial orientation task, a spatial visualization task and visuo-motor integration task were administered to assess three different aspects of spatial skills. Furthermore, we assessed counting abilities, knowledge of Arabic numerals, quantitative knowledge, as well as verbal working memory and verbal intelligence in kindergarten. Four months later, the same children performed an arithmetic and a number line estimation task to evaluate how the abilities measured at Time 1 predicted early mathematics outcomes. Hierarchical regression analysis revealed that children’s performance in arithmetic was predicted by their performance on the spatial orientation and visuo-motor integration task, as well as their knowledge of the Arabic numerals. Performance in number line estimation was significantly predicted by the children’s spatial orientation performance. Our findings emphasize the role of spatial skills, notably spatial orientation, in mathematical development. The relation between spatial orientation and arithmetic was partially mediated by the number line estimation task. Our results further show that some aspects of spatial skills might be more predictive of mathematical development than others, underlining the importance to differentiate within the construct of spatial skills when it comes to understanding numerical development.

The combined use of Green-Ampt model and Curve Number method as an empirical tool for loss estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Petroselli, A.; Grimaldi, S.; Romano, N.

2012-12-01

The Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN) method is a popular rainfall-runoff model widely used to estimate losses and direct runoff from a given rainfall event, but its use is not appropriate at sub-daily time resolution. To overcome this drawback, a mixed procedure, referred to as CN4GA (Curve Number for Green-Ampt), was recently developed including the Green-Ampt (GA) infiltration model and aiming to distribute in time the information provided by the SCS-CN method. The main concept of the proposed mixed procedure is to use the initial abstraction and the total volume given by the SCS-CN to calibrate the Green-Ampt soil hydraulic conductivity parameter. The procedure is here applied on a real case study and a sensitivity analysis concerning the remaining parameters is presented; results show that CN4GA approach is an ideal candidate for the rainfall excess analysis at sub-daily time resolution, in particular for ungauged basin lacking of discharge observations.

Aerial estimation of the size of gull breeding colonies

Science.gov (United States)

Kadlec, J.A.; Drury, W.H.

1968-01-01

Counts on photographs and visual estimates of the numbers of territorial gulls are usually reliable indicators of the number of gull nests, but single visual estimates are not adequate to measure the number of nests in individual colonies. To properly interpret gull counts requires that several islands with known numbers of nests be photographed to establish the ratio of gulls to nests applicable for a given local census. Visual estimates are adequate to determine total breeding gull numbers by regions. Neither visual estimates nor photography will reliably detect annual changes of less than about 2.5 percent.

A Multicriteria Decision Making Approach for Estimating the Number of Clusters in a Data Set

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Yi; Zhang, Yong; Kou, Gang; Shi, Yong

2012-01-01

Determining the number of clusters in a data set is an essential yet difficult step in cluster analysis. Since this task involves more than one criterion, it can be modeled as a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problem. This paper proposes a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM)-based approach to estimate the number of clusters for a given data set. In this approach, MCDM methods consider different numbers of clusters as alternatives and the outputs of any clustering algorithm on validity measures as criteria. The proposed method is examined by an experimental study using three MCDM methods, the well-known clustering algorithm–k-means, ten relative measures, and fifteen public-domain UCI machine learning data sets. The results show that MCDM methods work fairly well in estimating the number of clusters in the data and outperform the ten relative measures considered in the study. PMID:22870181

Estimation of ionized calcium, total calcium and albumin corrected calcium for the diagnosis of hypocalcaemia of malignancy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ijaz, A.; Mehmood, T.; Qureshi, A.H.; Anwar, M.; Dilawar, M.; Hussain, I.; Khan, F.A.; Khan, D.A.; Hussain, S.; Khan, I.A.

2006-01-01

Objective: To measure levels of ionized calcium, total calcium and albumin corrected calcium in patients with different malignant disorders for the diagnosis of hypercalcaemia of malignancy. Design: A case control comparative study. Place and Duration of Study: The study was carried out in the Department of Pathology, Army Medical College Rawalpindi, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology and Department of Oncology CMH, Rawalpindi from March 2003 to December 2003. Subjects and Methods: Ninety-seven patients of various malignant disorders, admitted in the Department of Oncology, CMH, Rawalpindi, and 39 age and gender-matched disease-free persons (as control) were included in the study. Blood ionized calcium (Ca/sup ++/), pH, sodium (Na/sup +/) and potassium (K/sup +/) were analysed by Ion selective electrode (ISE) on Easylyte> auto analyser. Other related parameters were measured by colorimetric methods. Results: Blood Ca/sup ++/ levels in patients suffering from malignant disorders were found significantly high (mean +- j 1.30+017 mmoV/L) as compared to control subjects (mean +- 1.23+0.03 mmoV/L) (p<0.001). The number of patients with hypercalcaemia of malignancy detected by Ca/sup ++/ estimation was significantly higher (38%) as compared to total calcium (8.4%) and albumin corrected calcium ACC (10.6%) (p<0.001). There was no statistically significant difference in other parameters e.g. phosphate, urea, creatinine, pH, Na/sup +/ and K/sup +/ levels in study subjects and controls. Conclusion: Detection of hypercalcaemia can be markedly improved if ionized calcium estimation is used in patients with malignant disorders. (author)

Comparison of two methods for estimating the number of undocumented Mexican adults in Los Angeles County.

Science.gov (United States)

Heer, D M; Passel, J F

1987-01-01

This article compares 2 different methods for estimating the number of undocumented Mexican adults in Los Angeles County. The 1st method, the survey-based method, uses a combination of 1980 census data and the results of a survey conducted in Los Angeles County in 1980 and 1981. A sample was selected from babies born in Los Angeles County who had a mother or father of Mexican origin. The survey included questions about the legal status of the baby's parents and certain other relatives. The resulting estimates of undocumented Mexican immigrants are for males aged 18-44 and females aged 18-39. The 2nd method, the residual method, involves comparison of census figures for aliens counted with estimates of legally-resident aliens developed principally with data from the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS). For this study, estimates by age, sex, and period of entry were produced for persons born in Mexico and living in Los Angeles County. The results of this research indicate that it is possible to measure undocumented immigration with different techniques, yet obtain results that are similar. Both techniques presented here are limited in that they represent estimates of undocumented aliens based on the 1980 census. The number of additional undocumented aliens not counted remains a subject of conjecture. The fact that the proportions undocumented shown in the survey (228,700) are quite similar to the residual estimates (317,800) suggests that the number of undocumented aliens not counted in the census may not be an extremely large fraction of the undocumented population. The survey-based estimates have some significant advantages over the residual estimates. The survey provides tabulations of the undocumented population by characteristics other than the limited demographic information provided by the residual technique. On the other hand, the survey-based estimates require that a survey be conducted and, if national or regional estimates are called for, they may

Evaluating estimators for numbers of females with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone grizzly bear population

Science.gov (United States)

Cherry, S.; White, G.C.; Keating, K.A.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Schwartz, Charles C.

2007-01-01

Current management of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Yellowstone National Park and surrounding areas requires annual estimation of the number of adult female bears with cubs-of-the-year. We examined the performance of nine estimators of population size via simulation. Data were simulated using two methods for different combinations of population size, sample size, and coefficient of variation of individual sighting probabilities. We show that the coefficient of variation does not, by itself, adequately describe the effects of capture heterogeneity, because two different distributions of capture probabilities can have the same coefficient of variation. All estimators produced biased estimates of population size with bias decreasing as effort increased. Based on the simulation results we recommend the Chao estimator for model M h be used to estimate the number of female bears with cubs of the year; however, the estimator of Chao and Shen may also be useful depending on the goals of the research.

Global CO2 fluxes estimated from GOSAT retrievals of total column CO2

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S. Basu

2013-09-01

Full Text Available We present one of the first estimates of the global distribution of CO2 surface fluxes using total column CO2 measurements retrieved by the SRON-KIT RemoTeC algorithm from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT. We derive optimized fluxes from June 2009 to December 2010. We estimate fluxes from surface CO2 measurements to use as baselines for comparing GOSAT data-derived fluxes. Assimilating only GOSAT data, we can reproduce the observed CO2 time series at surface and TCCON sites in the tropics and the northern extra-tropics. In contrast, in the southern extra-tropics GOSAT XCO2 leads to enhanced seasonal cycle amplitudes compared to independent measurements, and we identify it as the result of a land–sea bias in our GOSAT XCO2 retrievals. A bias correction in the form of a global offset between GOSAT land and sea pixels in a joint inversion of satellite and surface measurements of CO2 yields plausible global flux estimates which are more tightly constrained than in an inversion using surface CO2 data alone. We show that assimilating the bias-corrected GOSAT data on top of surface CO2 data (a reduces the estimated global land sink of CO2, and (b shifts the terrestrial net uptake of carbon from the tropics to the extra-tropics. It is concluded that while GOSAT total column CO2 provide useful constraints for source–sink inversions, small spatiotemporal biases – beyond what can be detected using current validation techniques – have serious consequences for optimized fluxes, even aggregated over continental scales.

Preliminary Results of Clover and Grass Coverage and Total Dry Matter Estimation in Clover-Grass Crops Using Image Analysis

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Anders K. Mortensen

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The clover-grass ratio is an important factor in composing feed ratios for livestock. Cameras in the field allow the user to estimate the clover-grass ratio using image analysis; however, current methods assume the total dry matter is known. This paper presents the preliminary results of an image analysis method for non-destructively estimating the total dry matter of clover-grass. The presented method includes three steps: (1 classification of image illumination using a histogram of the difference in excess green and excess red; (2 segmentation of clover and grass using edge detection and morphology; and (3 estimation of total dry matter using grass coverage derived from the segmentation and climate parameters. The method was developed and evaluated on images captured in a clover-grass plot experiment during the spring growing season. The preliminary results are promising and show a high correlation between the image-based total dry matter estimate and the harvested dry matter ( R 2 = 0.93 with an RMSE of 210 kg ha − 1 .

First passage times in homogeneous nucleation: Dependence on the total number of particles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yvinec, Romain; Bernard, Samuel; Pujo-Menjouet, Laurent; Hingant, Erwan

2016-01-01

Motivated by nucleation and molecular aggregation in physical, chemical, and biological settings, we present an extension to a thorough analysis of the stochastic self-assembly of a fixed number of identical particles in a finite volume. We study the statistics of times required for maximal clusters to be completed, starting from a pure-monomeric particle configuration. For finite volumes, we extend previous analytical approaches to the case of arbitrary size-dependent aggregation and fragmentation kinetic rates. For larger volumes, we develop a scaling framework to study the first assembly time behavior as a function of the total quantity of particles. We find that the mean time to first completion of a maximum-sized cluster may have a surprisingly weak dependence on the total number of particles. We highlight how higher statistics (variance, distribution) of the first passage time may nevertheless help to infer key parameters, such as the size of the maximum cluster. Finally, we present a framework to quantify formation of macroscopic sized clusters, which are (asymptotically) very unlikely and occur as a large deviation phenomenon from the mean-field limit. We argue that this framework is suitable to describe phase transition phenomena, as inherent infrequent stochastic processes, in contrast to classical nucleation theory

Empirical Estimation of Total Nitrogen and Total Phosphorus Concentration of Urban Water Bodies in China Using High Resolution IKONOS Multispectral Imagery

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Jiaming Liu

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Measuring total nitrogen (TN and total phosphorus (TP is important in managing heavy polluted urban waters in China. This study uses high spatial resolution IKONOS imagery with four multispectral bands, which roughly correspond to Landsat/TM bands 1–4, to determine TN and TP in small urban rivers and lakes in China. By using Lake Cihu and the lower reaches of Wen-Rui Tang (WRT River as examples, this paper develops both multiple linear regressions (MLR and artificial neural network (ANN models to estimate TN and TP concentrations from high spatial resolution remote sensing imagery and in situ water samples collected concurrently with overpassing satellite. The measured and estimated values of both MLR and ANN models are in good agreement (R2 > 0.85 and RMSE < 2.50. The empirical equations selected by MLR are more straightforward, whereas the estimated accuracy using ANN model is better (R2 > 0.86 and RMSE < 0.89. Results validate the potential of using high resolution IKONOS multispectral imagery to study the chemical states of small-sized urban water bodies. The spatial distribution maps of TN and TP concentrations generated by the ANN model can inform the decision makers of variations in water quality in Lake Cihu and lower reaches of WRT River. The approaches and equations developed in this study could be applied to other urban water bodies for water quality monitoring.

Calculations of the Total Number of Electrons Along a Ray Path Extending from the Transmitter to the Receiver

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) is the total number of electrons in a column of unit cross section extending from the transmitter to the receiver. TEC is...

Number of discernible colors for color-deficient observers estimated from the MacAdam limits.

Science.gov (United States)

Perales, Esther; Martínez-Verdú, Francisco Miguel; Linhares, João Manuel Maciel; Nascimento, Sérgio Miguel Cardoso

2010-10-01

We estimated the number of colors perceived by color normal and color-deficient observers when looking at the theoretic limits of object-color stimuli. These limits, the optimal color stimuli, were computed for a color normal observer and CIE standard illuminant D65, and the resultant colors were expressed in the CIELAB and DIN99d color spaces. The corresponding color volumes for abnormal color vision were computed using models simulating for normal trichromatic observers the appearance for dichromats and anomalous trichomats. The number of colors perceived in each case was then computed from the color volumes enclosed by the optimal colors also known as MacAdam limits. It was estimated that dichromats perceive less than 1% of the colors perceived by normal trichromats and that anomalous trichromats perceive 50%-60% for anomalies in the medium-wavelength-sensitive and 60%-70% for anomalies in the long-wavelength-sensitive cones. Complementary estimates obtained similarly for the spectral locus of monochromatic stimuli suggest less impairment for color-deficient observers, a fact that is explained by the two-dimensional nature of the locus.

Estimating the number of components and detecting outliers using Angle Distribution of Loading Subspaces (ADLS) in PCA analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Y J; Tran, T; Postma, G; Buydens, L M C; Jansen, J

2018-08-22

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is widely used in analytical chemistry, to reduce the dimensionality of a multivariate data set in a few Principal Components (PCs) that summarize the predominant patterns in the data. An accurate estimate of the number of PCs is indispensable to provide meaningful interpretations and extract useful information. We show how existing estimates for the number of PCs may fall short for datasets with considerable coherence, noise or outlier presence. We present here how Angle Distribution of the Loading Subspaces (ADLS) can be used to estimate the number of PCs based on the variability of loading subspace across bootstrap resamples. Based on comprehensive comparisons with other well-known methods applied on simulated dataset, we show that ADLS (1) may quantify the stability of a PCA model with several numbers of PCs simultaneously; (2) better estimate the appropriate number of PCs when compared with the cross-validation and scree plot methods, specifically for coherent data, and (3) facilitate integrated outlier detection, which we introduce in this manuscript. We, in addition, demonstrate how the analysis of different types of real-life spectroscopic datasets may benefit from these advantages of ADLS. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of total Effort and Effort Elapsed in Each Step of Software Development Using Optimal Bayesian Belief Network

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Fatemeh Zare Baghiabad

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Accuracy in estimating the needed effort for software development caused software effort estimation to be a challenging issue. Beside estimation of total effort, determining the effort elapsed in each software development step is very important because any mistakes in enterprise resource planning can lead to project failure. In this paper, a Bayesian belief network was proposed based on effective components and software development process. In this model, the feedback loops are considered between development steps provided that the return rates are different for each project. Different return rates help us determine the percentages of the elapsed effort in each software development step, distinctively. Moreover, the error measurement resulted from optimized effort estimation and the optimal coefficients to modify the model are sought. The results of the comparison between the proposed model and other models showed that the model has the capability to highly accurately estimate the total effort (with the marginal error of about 0.114 and to estimate the effort elapsed in each software development step.

Prevalence of Total Hip and Knee Replacement in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Maradit Kremers, Hilal; Larson, Dirk R; Crowson, Cynthia S; Kremers, Walter K; Washington, Raynard E; Steiner, Claudia A; Jiranek, William A; Berry, Daniel J

2015-09-02

Descriptive epidemiology of total joint replacement procedures is limited to annual procedure volumes (incidence). The prevalence of the growing number of individuals living with a total hip or total knee replacement is currently unknown. Our objective was to estimate the prevalence of total hip and total knee replacement in the United States. Prevalence was estimated using the counting method by combining historical incidence data from the National Hospital Discharge Survey and the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) State Inpatient Databases from 1969 to 2010 with general population census and mortality counts. We accounted for relative differences in mortality rates between those who have had total hip or knee replacement and the general population. The 2010 prevalence of total hip and total knee replacement in the total U.S. population was 0.83% and 1.52%, respectively. Prevalence was higher among women than among men and increased with age, reaching 5.26% for total hip replacement and 10.38% for total knee replacement at eighty years. These estimates corresponded to 2.5 million individuals (1.4 million women and 1.1 million men) with total hip replacement and 4.7 million individuals (3.0 million women and 1.7 million men) with total knee replacement in 2010. Secular trends indicated a substantial rise in prevalence over time and a shift to younger ages. Around 7 million Americans are living with a hip or knee replacement, and consequently, in most cases, are mobile, despite advanced arthritis. These numbers underscore the substantial public health impact of total hip and knee arthroplasties. Copyright © 2015 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

The estimation of the number of underground coal miners and normalization collective dose at present in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Fu-dong; Chen, Lu; Pan, Zi-qiang; Liu, Sen-lin; Chen, Ling; Wang, Chun-hong

2017-01-01

Due to the improvement of production technology and the adjustment of energy structure, as well as the town-ownership and private-ownership coal mines (TPCM) were closed or merged by national policy, the number of underground miner has changed comparing with 2004 in China, so collective dose and normalization collective dose in different type of coal mine should be changed at the same time. In this paper, according to radiation exposure by different ventilation condition and the annual output, the coal mines in China are divided into three types, which are named as national key coal mines (NKCM), station-owned local coal mines (SLCM) and TPCM. The number of underground coal miner, collective dose and normalization collective dose are estimated at present base on surveying annual output and production efficiency of raw coal in 2005-2014. The typical total value of the underground coal miners recommended in China is 5.1 million in 2005-2009, and in which there are respectively included 1 million, 0.9 million and 3.2 million for NKCM, SLCM and TPCM. There are total of 4.7 million underground coal miner in 2010-2014, and the respectively number for NKCM, SLCM and TPCM are 1.4 million, 1.2 million and 2.1 million. The collective dose in 2005-2009 is 11 335 man.Sv.y"-"1, and in which there are respectively included 280, 495 and 10 560 man.Sv.y"-"1 for NKCM, SLCM and TPCM. As far as 2010-2014, there are total of 7982 man.Sv.y"-"1, and 392, 660 and 6930 man.Sv.y"-"1 for each type of coal mines. Therefore, the main contributor of collective dose is from TPCM. The normalization collective dose in 2005-2009 is 0.0025, 0.015 and 0.117 man.Sv per 10 kt for NKCM, SLCM and TPCM, respectively. As far as 2010-2014, there are 0.0018, 0.010 and 0.107 man.Sv per 10 kt for each type of coal mines. The trend of normalization collective dose is decreased year by year. (authors)

Mass number dependence of total neutron cross section; a discussion based on the semi-classical optical model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Angeli, Istvan

1990-01-01

The dependence of total neutron cross section on mass number can be calculated by the black nucleus formula, according to the optical model. The fine structure of mass number dependence is studied, and a correction factor formula is given on the basis of a semi-classical optical model. Yielding results in good agreement with experimental data. In addition to the mass number dependence, the neutron-energy dependence can also be calculated using this model. (K.A.)

Reduced beta band connectivity during number estimation in autism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katrin A. Bangel

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Recent evidence suggests that disruption of integrative processes in sensation and perception may play a critical role in cognitive and behavioural atypicalities characteristic of ASD. In line with this, ASD is associated with altered structural and functional brain connectivity and atypical patterns of inter-regional communication which have been proposed to contribute to cognitive difficulties prevalent in this group. The present MEG study used atlas-guided source space analysis of inter-regional phase synchronization in ASD participants, as well as matched typically developing controls, during a dot number estimation task. This task included stimuli with globally integrated forms (animal shapes as well as randomly-shaped stimuli which lacked a coherent global pattern. Early task-dependent increases in inter-regional phase synchrony in theta, alpha and beta frequency bands were observed. Reduced long-range beta-band phase synchronization was found in participants with ASD at 70–145 ms during presentation of globally coherent dot patterns. This early reduction in task-dependent inter-regional connectivity encompassed numerous areas including occipital, parietal, temporal, and frontal lobe regions. These results provide the first evidence for inter-regional phase synchronization during numerosity estimation, as well as its alteration in ASD, and suggest that problems with communication among brain areas may contribute to difficulties with integrative processes relevant to extraction of meaningful ‘Gestalt’ features in this population.

Estimation Curve Numbers using GIS and Hec-GeoHMS Model

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Hayat Kareem Shukur

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Recently, the development and application of the hydrological models based on Geographical Information System (GIS has increased around the world. One of the most important applications of GIS is mapping the Curve Number (CN of a catchment. In this research, three softwares, such as an ArcView GIS 9.3 with ArcInfo, Arc Hydro Tool and Geospatial Hydrologic Modeling Extension (Hec-GeoHMS model for ArcView GIS 9.3, were used to calculate CN of (19210 ha Salt Creek watershed (SC which is located in Osage County, Oklahoma, USA. Multi layers were combined and examined using the Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI ArcMap 2009. These layers are soil layer (Soil Survey Geographic SSURGO, 30 m x 30 m resolution of Digital Elevation Model (DEM, land use layer (LU, “Look–Up tables” and other layers resulted from running the software. Curve Number which expresses a catchment’s response to a storm event has been estimated in this study to each land parcel based on LU layer and soil layer within each parcel. The results showed that a CN of 100 (dark Blue means surface water. The high curve numbers (100 -81 (Blue and light Blue corresponding to urbanized areas means high runoff and low infiltration; whereas low curve numbers (77- 58 (Brown and light Brown corresponding to the forested area means low runoff and high infiltration. Four classes of land cover have been identified; these are surface water, medium residential, forest and agriculture.

An empirical analysis of the precision of estimating the numbers of neurons and glia in human neocortex using a fractionator-design with sub-sampling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lyck, L.; Santamaria, I.D.; Pakkenberg, B.

2009-01-01

Improving histomorphometric analysis of the human neocortex by combining stereological cell counting with immunchistochemical visualisation of specific neuronal and glial cell populations is a methodological challenge. To enable standardized immunohistochemical staining, the amount of brain tissue...... at each level of sampling was determined empirically. The methodology was tested in three brains analysing the contribution of the multi-step sampling procedure to the precision on the estimated total numbers of immunohistochemically defined NeuN expressing (NeuN(+)) neurons and CD45(+) microglia...

Gis Approach to Estimation of the Total Phosphorous Transfer in the Pilica River Lowland Catchment

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Magnuszewski Artur

2014-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the Pilica River catchment (central Poland is analyzed with a focus on understanding the total phosphorous transfer along the river system which also contains the large artificial Sulejów Reservoir. The paper presents a GIS method for estimating the total phosphorous (TP load from proxy data representing sub-catchment land use and census data. The modelled load of TP is compared to the actual transfer of TP in the Pilica River system. The results shows that the metrics of connectivity between river system and dwelling areas as well as settlement density in the sub-catchments are useful predictors of the total phosphorous load. The presence of a large reservoir in the middle course of the river can disrupt nutrient transport along a river continuum by trapping and retaining suspended sediment and its associated TP load. Analysis of the indirect estimation of TP loads with the GIS analysis can be useful for identifying beneficial reservoir locations in a catchment. The study has shown that the Sulejów Reservoir has been located in a subcatchment with a largest load of the TP, and this feature helps determine the problem of reservoir eutrphication

Total number albedo and average cosine of the polar angle of low-energy photons reflected from water

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marković Srpko

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The total number albedo and average cosine of the polar angle for water and initial photon energy range from 20 keV to 100 keV are presented in this pa per. A water shield in the form of a thick, homogenous plate and per pendicular incidence of the monoenergetic photon beam are assumed. The results were obtained through Monte Carlo simulations of photon reflection by means of the MCNP computer code. Calculated values for the total number albedo were compared with data previously published and good agreement was confirmed. The dependence of the average cosine of the polar angle on energy is studied in detail. It has been found that the total average cosine of the polar angle has values in the narrow interval of 0.66-0.67, approximately corresponding to the reflection angle of 48°, and that it does not depend on the initial photon energy.

Estimated incidence and number of outpatient visits for seasonal influenza in 2015-2016 in Beijing, China.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wu, S; Van Asten, L; Wang, L; McDonald, S A; Pan, Y; Duan, W; Zhang, L; Sun, Y; Zhang, Y; Zhang, X; Pilot, E; Krafft, T; Van Der Hoek, W; Van Der Sande, M A B; Yang, P; Wang, Q

2017-01-01

Information on morbidity burden of seasonal influenza in China is limited. A multiplier model was used to estimate the incidence and number of outpatient visits for seasonal influenza by age group for the 2015-2016 season in Beijing, the capital of China, based on reported numbers of influenza-like

A method for express estimation of the octane number of gasoline using a portable spectroimpedance meter and statistical analysis methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mamykin A. V.

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The authors propose a method for determination of the electro-physical characteristics of electrical insulating liquids on the example of different types of gasoline. The method is based on the spectral impedance measurements of a capacitor electrochemical cell filled with the liquid under study. The application of sinusoidal test voltage in the frequency range of 0,1—10 Hz provides more accurate measurements in comparison with known traditional methods. A portable device for measuring total electrical resistance (impedance of dielectric liquids was designed and constructed. An approach for express estimation of octane number of automobile gasoline using spectroimpedance measurements and statistical multi variation methods of data analysis has been proposed and tested.

Analysis of cell flow and cell loss following X-irradiation using sequential investigation of the total number of cells in the various parts of the cell cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skog, S.; Tribukait, B.

1985-01-01

The cell flow and cell loss of an in vivo growing Ehrlich ascites tumour were calculated by sequential estimation of changes in total number of cells in the cell cycle compartments. Normal growth was compared with the grossly disturbed cell flow evident after a 5 Gy X-irradiation. The doubling time of normal, exponentially growing cells was 24 hr. The generation time was 21 hr and the potential doubling time was 21 hr. Thus, the growth fraction was 1.0 and the cell loss rate about 0.5%/hr. Following irradiation, a transiently increased relative outflow rate from all cell cycle compartments was found at about 3 and 40 hr, and from S phase at 24 hr after irradiation. Increase in cell loss as well as non-viable cells was observed at 24 hr after irradiation at the time of release of the irradiation-induced G 2 blockage. The experiments show the applicability and limitations of cell flow and cell loss calculations by sequential analysis of the total number of cells in the various parts of the cell cycle. (author)

Balancing selected medication costs with total number of daily injections: a preference analysis of GnRH-agonist and antagonist protocols by IVF patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Sills, E Scott; Collins, Gary S; Salem, Shala A; Jones, Christopher A; Peck, Alison C; Salem, Rifaat D

2012-08-30

During in vitro fertilization (IVF), fertility patients are expected to self-administer many injections as part of this treatment. While newer medications have been developed to substantially reduce the number of these injections, such agents are typically much more expensive. Considering these differences in both cost and number of injections, this study compared patient preferences between GnRH-agonist and GnRH-antagonist based protocols in IVF. Data were collected by voluntary, anonymous questionnaire at first consultation appointment. Patient opinion concerning total number of s.c. injections as a function of non-reimbursed patient cost associated with GnRH-agonist [A] and GnRH-antagonist [B] protocols in IVF was studied. Completed questionnaires (n = 71) revealed a mean +/- SD patient age of 34 +/- 4.1 yrs. Most (83.1%) had no prior IVF experience; 2.8% reported another medical condition requiring self-administration of subcutaneous medication(s). When out-of-pocket cost for [A] and [B] were identical, preference for [B] was registered by 50.7% patients. The tendency to favor protocol [B] was weaker among patients with a health occupation. Estimated patient costs for [A] and [B] were $259.82 +/- 11.75 and $654.55 +/- 106.34, respectively (p cost difference increased. This investigation found consistently higher non-reimbursed direct medication costs for GnRH-antagonist IVF vs. GnRH-agonist IVF protocols. A conditional preference to minimize downregulation (using GnRH-antagonist) was noted among some, but not all, IVF patient sub-groups. Compared to IVF patients with a health occupation, the preference for GnRH-antagonist was weaker than for other patients. While reducing total number of injections by using GnRH-antagonist is a desirable goal, it appears this advantage is not perceived equally by all IVF patients and its utility is likely discounted heavily by patients when nonreimbursed medication costs reach a critical level.

Design-based estimation of neuronal number and individual neuronal volume in the rat hippocampus

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hosseini-Sharifabad, Mohammad; Nyengaard, Jens Randel

2007-01-01

Tools recently developed in stereology were employed for unbiased estimation of the neuronal number and volume in three major subdivisions of rat hippocampus (dentate granular, CA1 and CA3 pyramidal layers). The optical fractionator is used extensively in quantitative studies of the hippocampus; ...

Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yingbin; Jiao, Yan

2015-05-01

The instantaneous total mortality rate ( Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis, abundance and catch forecast, and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method, the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time, but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant, and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z, and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates (the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore, the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them, but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997, and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.

Estimation of the optimal number of radiotherapy fractions for breast cancer: A review of the evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Karen; Delaney, Geoff P; Barton, Michael B

2015-08-01

There is variation in radiotherapy fractionation practice, however, there is no evidence-based benchmark for appropriate activity. An evidence-based model was constructed to estimate the optimal number of fractions for the first course of radiotherapy for breast cancer to aid in services planning and performance benchmarking. The published breast cancer radiotherapy utilisation model was adapted. Evidence-based number of fractions was added to each radiotherapy indication. The overall optimal number of fractions was calculated based on the frequency of specific clinical conditions where radiotherapy is indicated and the recommended number of fractions for each condition. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impact of uncertainties on the model. For the entire Australian breast cancer patient population, the estimated optimal number of fractions per patient was 16.8, 14.6, 13.7 and 0.8 for ductal carcinoma in situ, early, advanced and metastatic breast cancer respectively. Overall, the optimal number of fractions per patient was 14.4 (range 14.4-18.7). These results allow comparison with actual practices, and workload prediction to aid in services planning. The model can be easily adapted to other countries by inserting population-specific epidemiological data, and to future changes in cancer incidence, stage distribution and fractionation recommendations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction equation for estimating total daily energy requirements of special operations personnel.

Science.gov (United States)

Barringer, N D; Pasiakos, S M; McClung, H L; Crombie, A P; Margolis, L M

2018-01-01

Special Operations Forces (SOF) engage in a variety of military tasks with many producing high energy expenditures, leading to undesired energy deficits and loss of body mass. Therefore, the ability to accurately estimate daily energy requirements would be useful for accurate logistical planning. Generate a predictive equation estimating energy requirements of SOF. Retrospective analysis of data collected from SOF personnel engaged in 12 different SOF training scenarios. Energy expenditure and total body water were determined using the doubly-labeled water technique. Physical activity level was determined as daily energy expenditure divided by resting metabolic rate. Physical activity level was broken into quartiles (0 = mission prep, 1 = common warrior tasks, 2 = battle drills, 3 = specialized intense activity) to generate a physical activity factor (PAF). Regression analysis was used to construct two predictive equations (Model A; body mass and PAF, Model B; fat-free mass and PAF) estimating daily energy expenditures. Average measured energy expenditure during SOF training was 4468 (range: 3700 to 6300) Kcal·d- 1 . Regression analysis revealed that physical activity level ( r  = 0.91; P  plan appropriate feeding regimens to meet SOF nutritional requirements across their mission profile.

Estimation of the number and demographics of companion dogs in the UK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Asher Lucy

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Current estimates of the UK dog population vary, contain potential sources of bias and are based on expensive, large scale, public surveys. Here, we evaluate the potential of a variety of sources for estimation and monitoring of the companion dog population in the UK and associated demographic information. The sources considered were: a public survey; veterinary practices; pet insurance companies; micro-chip records; Kennel Club registrations; and the Pet Travel Scheme. The public survey and subpopulation estimates from veterinary practices, pet insurance companies and Kennel Club registrations, were combined to generate distinct estimates of the UK owned dog population using a Bayesian approach. Results We estimated there are 9.4 (95% CI: 8.1-11.5 million companion dogs in the UK according to the public survey alone, which is similar to other recent estimates. The population was judged to be over-estimated by combining the public and veterinary surveys (16.4, 95% CI: 12.5-21.5 million and under-estimated by combining the public survey and insured dog numbers (4.8, 95% CI: 3.6-6.9 million. An estimate based on combining the public survey and Kennel Club registered dogs was 7.1 (95% CI: 4.5-12.9 million. Based on Bayesian estimations, 77 (95% CI: 62-92% of the UK dog population were registered at a veterinary practice; 42 (95% CI: 29-55% of dogs were insured; and 29 (95% CI: 17-43% of dogs were Kennel Club registered. Breed demographics suggested the Labrador was consistently the most popular breed registered in micro-chip records, with the Kennel Club and with J. Sainsbury's PLC pet insurance. A comparison of the demographics between these sources suggested that popular working breeds were under-represented and certain toy, utility and miniature breeds were over- represented in the Kennel Club registrations. Density maps were produced from micro-chip records based on the geographical distribution of dogs. Conclusions A list

Total Quality Management. ERIC Digest, Number 73.

Science.gov (United States)

Weaver, Tyler

The Japanese success story has made W. Edwards Deming's Total Quality Management (TQM) theory increasingly popular among American managers, from car manufacturers to educational leaders. TQM is based on two tenets: the primacy of customer satisfaction and the necessity of tapping nontraditional sources (especially employee ideas) to institute…

Phylogenetic uncertainty can bias the number of evolutionary transitions estimated from ancestral state reconstruction methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Duchêne, Sebastian; Lanfear, Robert

2015-09-01

Ancestral state reconstruction (ASR) is a popular method for exploring the evolutionary history of traits that leave little or no trace in the fossil record. For example, it has been used to test hypotheses about the number of evolutionary origins of key life-history traits such as oviparity, or key morphological structures such as wings. Many studies that use ASR have suggested that the number of evolutionary origins of such traits is higher than was previously thought. The scope of such inferences is increasing rapidly, facilitated by the construction of very large phylogenies and life-history databases. In this paper, we use simulations to show that the number of evolutionary origins of a trait tends to be overestimated when the phylogeny is not perfect. In some cases, the estimated number of transitions can be several fold higher than the true value. Furthermore, we show that the bias is not always corrected by standard approaches to account for phylogenetic uncertainty, such as repeating the analysis on a large collection of possible trees. These findings have important implications for studies that seek to estimate the number of origins of a trait, particularly those that use large phylogenies that are associated with considerable uncertainty. We discuss the implications of this bias, and methods to ameliorate it. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimated number of adults with prediabetes in the US in 2000: opportunities for prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Benjamin, Stephanie M; Valdez, Rodolfo; Geiss, Linda S; Rolka, Deborah B; Narayan, K M Venkat

2003-03-01

To estimate the percent and number of overweight adults in the U.S. with prediabetes who would be potential candidates for diabetes prevention as per the American Diabetes Association Position Statement (12). We analyzed data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III; 1988-1994) and projected our estimates to the year 2000. We defined impaired glucose tolerance (IGT; 2-h glucose 140-199 mg/dl), impaired fasting glucose (IFG; fasting glucose 110-125 mg/dl), and prediabetes (IGT or IFG) per American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria. The ADA recently recommended that all overweight people (BMI >or=25 kg/m(2)) who are >or=45 years of age with prediabetes could be potential candidates for diabetes prevention, as could prediabetic people aged >25 years with risk factors. In NHANES III, 2-h postload glucose concentrations were done only among subjects aged 40-74 years. Because we were interested in overweight people who had both the 2-h glucose and fasting glucose tests, we limited our estimates of IGT, IFG, and prediabetes to those aged 45-74 years. RESULTS-Overall, 17.1% of overweight adults aged 45-74 years had IGT, 11.9% had IFG, 22.6% had prediabetes, and 5.6% had both IGT and IFG. Based on those data, we estimated that in the year 2000, 9.1 million overweight adults aged 45-74 had IGT, 5.8 million had IFG, 11.9 million had prediabetes, and 3.0 million had IGT and IFG. Almost 12 million overweight individuals aged 45-74 years in the U.S. may benefit from diabetes prevention interventions. The number will be substantially higher if estimation is extended to individuals aged >75 and 25-44 years.

Reduction of Topographic Effect for Curve Number Estimated from Remotely Sensed Imagery

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wen-Yan; Lin, Chao-Yuan

2016-04-01

The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method is commonly used in hydrology to estimate direct runoff volume. The CN is the empirical parameter which corresponding to land use/land cover, hydrologic soil group and antecedent soil moisture condition. In large watersheds with complex topography, satellite remote sensing is the appropriate approach to acquire the land use change information. However, the topographic effect have been usually found in the remotely sensed imageries and resulted in land use classification. This research selected summer and winter scenes of Landsat-5 TM during 2008 to classified land use in Chen-You-Lan Watershed, Taiwan. The b-correction, the empirical topographic correction method, was applied to Landsat-5 TM data. Land use were categorized using K-mean classification into 4 groups i.e. forest, grassland, agriculture and river. Accuracy assessment of image classification was performed with national land use map. The results showed that after topographic correction, the overall accuracy of classification was increased from 68.0% to 74.5%. The average CN estimated from remotely sensed imagery decreased from 48.69 to 45.35 where the average CN estimated from national LULC map was 44.11. Therefore, the topographic correction method was recommended to normalize the topographic effect from the satellite remote sensing data before estimating the CN.

Total process surveillance: (TOPS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Millar, J.H.P.

1992-01-01

A Total Process Surveillance system is under development which can provide, in real-time, additional process information from a limited number of raw measurement signals. This is achieved by using a robust model based observer to generate estimates of the process' internal states. The observer utilises the analytical reduncancy among a diverse range of transducers and can thus accommodate off-normal conditions which lead to transducer loss or damage. The modular hierarchical structure of the system enables the maximum amount of information to be assimilated from the available instrument signals no matter how diverse. This structure also constitutes a data reduction path thus reducing operator cognitive overload from a large number of varying, and possibly contradictory, raw plant signals. (orig.)

Adaptive estimation of binomial probabilities under misclassification

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Albers, Willem/Wim; Veldman, H.J.

1984-01-01

If misclassification occurs the standard binomial estimator is usually seriously biased. It is known that an improvement can be achieved by using more than one observer in classifying the sample elements. Here it will be investigated which number of observers is optimal given the total number of

The number of Jupiter family comets as a constraint on the transneptunian population

Science.gov (United States)

Tancredi, G.; et al.

Several duynamical studies point out that the comets of the Jupiter family were originated in a flat belt in the transneptunian region. The Jupiter family is a transient dynamical state between the injection from the outer region and i) the ejection out of the Solar System, ii) the collision against one of its members or iii) the desintegration into a meteor stream. It has been generally assumed that the Jupiter family (JF) is in a steady state; i.e. the injection is balanced by the ejection+collision+ desintegration. Knowing the duration of a typical visit into the Jupiter family and the number of JF comets we could infer the injection rate. The rate of escapes from the transneptunian region and the fraction that reach the Jupiter family can be computed from massive integrations of particles starting in the outer region. An estimate of the required population of transneptunian objects can then be inferred from these numbers. There have been published several estimates of the dynamical parameters mentioned above but the total number of JF comets has been difficult to estimate. Based on a compilation of all the reported nuclear magnitudes of JF comets, we derive the total number of objects in the cometary population. The observed population (~ 200) is a tiny fraction of the total population (several thousands). Compiling all these numbers, we then derive the required trasneptunian population.

Estimating the number of HIV-infected injection drug users in Bangkok: a capture--recapture method.

Science.gov (United States)

Mastro, T D; Kitayaporn, D; Weniger, B G; Vanichseni, S; Laosunthorn, V; Uneklabh, T; Uneklabh, C; Choopanya, K; Limpakarnjanarat, K

1994-07-01

The purpose of the study was to estimate the number of injection drug users infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Bangkok to allow planning for health services for this population. A two-sample capture-recapture method was used. The first capture listed all persons on methadone treatment for opiate addiction from April 17 through May 17, 1991, at 18 facilities in Bangkok. The second capture involved urine testing of persons held at 72 Bangkok police stations from June 3 through September 30, 1991. Persons whose urine tests were positive for opiate metabolites or methadone were included on the second list. The first capture comprised 4064 persons and the recapture 1540 persons. There were 171 persons included on both lists, yielding an estimate of 36,600 opiate users in Bangkok. Existing data indicate that 89% of opiate users in Bangkok inject drugs and that about one third are infected with HIV, yielding an estimate of approximately 12,000 HIV-infected injection drug users in Bangkok in 1991. During the 1990s the number of cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and other HIV-related diseases, including tuberculosis, in the population of HIV-infected injection drug users in Bangkok will increase dramatically, placing new demands on existing health care facilities. The capture-recapture method may be useful in estimating difficult-to-count populations, including injection drug users.

The validity and reproducibility of food-frequency questionnaire–based total antioxidant capacity estimates in Swedish women

Science.gov (United States)

Total antioxidant capacity (TAC) provides an assessment of antioxidant activity and synergistic interactions of redox molecules in foods and plasma. We investigated the validity and reproducibility of food frequency questionnaire (FFQ)–based TAC estimates assessed by oxygen radical absorbance capaci...

Evidence-based optimal number of radiotherapy fractions for cancer: A useful tool to estimate radiotherapy demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Karen; Delaney, Geoff P; Barton, Michael B

2016-04-01

The recently updated optimal radiotherapy utilisation model estimated that 48.3% of all cancer patients should receive external beam radiotherapy at least once during their disease course. Adapting this model, we constructed an evidence-based model to estimate the optimal number of fractions for notifiable cancers in Australia to determine equipment and workload implications. The optimal number of fractions was calculated based on the frequency of specific clinical conditions where radiotherapy is indicated and the evidence-based recommended number of fractions for each condition. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impact of variables on the model. Of the 27 cancer sites, the optimal number of fractions for the first course of radiotherapy ranged from 0 to 23.3 per cancer patient, and 1.5 to 29.1 per treatment course. Brain, prostate and head and neck cancers had the highest average number of fractions per course. Overall, the optimal number of fractions was 9.4 per cancer patient (range 8.7-10.0) and 19.4 per course (range 18.0-20.7). These results provide valuable data for radiotherapy services planning and comparison with actual practice. The model can be easily adapted by inserting population-specific epidemiological data thus making it applicable to other jurisdictions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of uncertainty of a reference material for proficiency testing for the determination of total mercury in fish in nature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santana, L V; Sarkis, J E S; Ulrich, J C; Hortellani, M A

2015-01-01

We provide an uncertainty estimates for homogeneity and stability studies of reference material used in proficiency test for determination of total mercury in fish fresh muscle tissue. Stability was estimated by linear regression and homogeneity by ANOVA. The results indicate that the reference material is both homogeneous and chemically stable over the short term. Total mercury concentration of the muscle tissue, with expanded uncertainty, was 0.294 ± 0.089 μg g −1

Mapping and estimating the total living biomass and carbon in low-biomass woodlands using Landsat 8 CDR data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Belachew Gizachew

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A functional forest carbon measuring, reporting and verification (MRV system to support climate change mitigation policies, such as REDD+, requires estimates of forest biomass carbon, as an input to estimate emissions. A combination of field inventory and remote sensing is expected to provide those data. By linking Landsat 8 and forest inventory data, we (1 developed linear mixed effects models for total living biomass (TLB estimation as a function of spectral variables, (2 developed a 30 m resolution map of the total living carbon (TLC, and (3 estimated the total TLB stock of the study area. Inventory data consisted of tree measurements from 500 plots in 63 clusters in a 15,700 km2 study area, in miombo woodlands of Tanzania. The Landsat 8 data comprised two climate data record images covering the inventory area. Results We found a linear relationship between TLB and Landsat 8 derived spectral variables, and there was no clear evidence of spectral data saturation at higher biomass values. The root-mean-square error of the values predicted by the linear model linking the TLB and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI is equal to 44 t/ha (49 % of the mean value. The estimated TLB for the study area was 140 Mt, with a mean TLB density of 81 t/ha, and a 95 % confidence interval of 74–88 t/ha. We mapped the distribution of TLC of the study area using the TLB model, where TLC was estimated at 47 % of TLB. Conclusion The low biomass in the miombo woodlands, and the absence of a spectral data saturation problem suggested that Landsat 8 derived NDVI is suitable auxiliary information for carbon monitoring in the context of REDD+, for low-biomass, open-canopy woodlands.

Estimating total economic merit for the Portuguese Holstein cattle population under new economic conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joana B.M. Almeida

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to develop a total economic merit index that identifies more profitable animals using Portugal as a case study to illustrate the recent economic changes in milk production. Economic values were estimated following future global prices and EU policy, and taking into consideration the priorities of the Portuguese dairy sector. Economic values were derived using an objective system analysis with a positive approach, that involved the comparison of several alternatives, using real technical and economic data from national dairy farms. The estimated relative economic values revealed a high importance of production traits, low for morphological traits and a value of zero for somatic cell score. According to several future market expectations, three scenarios for milk production were defined: a realistic, a pessimistic and an optimistic setting, each with projected future economic values. Responses to selection and efficiency of selection of the indices were compared to a fourth scenario that represents the current selection situation in Portugal, based on individual estimated breeding values for milk yield. Although profit resulting from sale of milk per average lactation in the optimistic scenario was higher than in the realistic scenario, the volatility of future economic conditions and uncertainty about the future milk pricing system should be considered. Due to this market instability, genetic improvement programs require new definitions of profit functions for the near future. Effective genetic progress direction must be verified so that total economic merit formulae can be adjusted and selection criteria redirected to the newly defined target goals.

Estimation of thermal transmittance based on temperature measurements with the application of perturbation numbers

Science.gov (United States)

Nowoświat, Artur; Skrzypczyk, Jerzy; Krause, Paweł; Steidl, Tomasz; Winkler-Skalna, Agnieszka

2018-05-01

Fast estimation of thermal transmittance based on temperature measurements is uncertain, and the obtained results can be burdened with a large error. Nevertheless, such attempts should be undertaken merely due to the fact that a precise measurement by means of heat flux measurements is not always possible in field conditions (resentment of the residents during the measurements carried out inside their living quarters), and the calculation methods do not allow for the nonlinearity of thermal insulation, heat bridges or other fragments of building envelope of diversified thermal conductivity. The present paper offers the estimation of thermal transmittance and internal surface resistance with the use of temperature measurements (in particular with the use of thermovision). The proposed method has been verified through tests carried out on a laboratory test stand built in the open space, subjected to the influence of real meteorological conditions. The present elaboration involves the estimation of thermal transmittance by means of temperature measurements. Basing on the mentioned estimation, the authors present correction coefficients which have impact on the estimation accuracy. Furthermore, in the final part of the paper, various types of disturbance were allowed for using perturbation numbers, and the introduced by the authors "credibility area of thermal transmittance estimation" was determined.

Direct and correlated responses to selection for total weight of lamb ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Unknown

productivity and that each of these components can be used as a selection criterion, as each has a direct impact on total ewe ... of lamb weaned per ewe joined is more efficient than selection for number of lambs born, number of lambs weaned or weaning ... The estimated grazing capacity is 5.5 ha per small stock unit.

NUMBER OF COWS AND BAGS NEEDED TO ESTIMATE in situ DRY MATTER DEGRADATION OF KINGGRASS (Pennisetum purpureum) LEAVES

OpenAIRE

Epigmenio Castillo-Gallegos; Jesús Jarillo-Rodríguez; Ismael Cortes-Salazar; Braulio Valles-De la Mora; Eliazar Ocaña-Zavaleta

2012-01-01

The number of bags to be incubated per sample, and the number of fistulated cows needed to estimate in situ ruminal degradation of Kinggrass (Pennisetum purpureum) dry matter (DMD %) were determined. Three rumen-fistulated cows and 10 bags per incubation time (3, 6, 9, 12, 24, 48 and 72 h) were used. Five grams of dried leaves were weighed per bag. Variance components for cows (Vc) and bags (Vb) per incubation time were estimated and used to calculate the standard error (SE) of mean DMD. The ...

Estimating seasonal variations in cloud droplet number concentration over the boreal forest from satellite observations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janssen, R.; Ganzeveld, L.N.; Kabat, P.; Kulmala, M.; Nieminen, T.; Roebeling, R.A.

2011-01-01

Seasonal variations in cloud droplet number concentration (NCD) in low-level stratiform clouds over the boreal forest are estimated from MODIS observations of cloud optical and microphysical properties, using a sub-adiabatic cloud model to interpret vertical profiles of cloud properties. An

Background estimation in short-wave region during determination of total sample composition by x-ray fluorescence method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simakov, V.A.; Kordyukov, S.V.; Petrov, E.N.

1988-01-01

Method of background estimation in short-wave spectral region during determination of total sample composition by X-ray fluorescence method is described. 13 types of different rocks with considerable variations of base composition and Zr, Nb, Th, U content below 7x10 -3 % are investigated. The suggested method of background accounting provides for a less statistical error of the background estimation than direct isolated measurement and reliability of its determination in a short-wave region independent on the sample base. Possibilities of suggested method for artificial mixtures conforming by the content of main component to technological concemtrates - niobium, zirconium, tantalum are estimated

HIV in hiding: methods and data requirements for the estimation of the number of people living with undiagnosed HIV

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lundgren, Jens

2011-01-01

Many people who are HIV positive are unaware of their infection status. Estimation of the number of people with undiagnosed HIV within a country or region is vital for understanding future need for treatment and for motivating testing programs. We review the available estimation approaches which...... are in current use. They can be broadly classified into those based on prevalence surveys and those based on reported HIV and AIDS cases. Estimation based on prevalence data requires data from regular prevalence surveys in different population groups together with estimates of the size of these groups....... The recommended minimal case reporting data needed to estimate the number of patients with undiagnosed HIV are HIV diagnoses, including CD4 count at diagnosis and whether there has been an AIDS diagnosis in the 3 months before or after HIV diagnosis, and data on deaths in people with HIV. We would encourage all...

A comment on "bats killed in large numbers at United States wind energy facilities"

Science.gov (United States)

Huso, Manuela M.P.; Dalthorp, Dan

2014-01-01

Widespread reports of bat fatalities caused by wind turbines have raised concerns about the impacts of wind power development. Reliable estimates of the total number killed and the potential effects on populations are needed, but it is crucial that they be based on sound data. In a recent BioScience article, Hayes (2013) estimated that over 600,000 bats were killed at wind turbines in the United States in 2012. The scientific errors in the analysis are numerous, with the two most serious being that the included sites constituted a convenience sample, not a representative sample, and that the individual site estimates are derived from such different methodologies that they are inherently not comparable. This estimate is almost certainly inaccurate, but whether the actual number is much smaller, much larger, or about the same is uncertain. An accurate estimate of total bat fatality is not currently possible, given the shortcomings of the available data.

Exploratory graph analysis: A new approach for estimating the number of dimensions in psychological research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Golino, H.F.; Epskamp, S.

2017-01-01

The estimation of the correct number of dimensions is a long-standing problem in psychometrics. Several methods have been proposed, such as parallel analysis (PA), Kaiser-Guttman’s eigenvalue-greater-than-one rule, multiple average partial procedure (MAP), the maximum-likelihood approaches that use

Estimation hydrophilic-lipophilic balance number of surfactants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pawignya, Harsa, E-mail: harsa-paw@yahoo.co.id [Chemical Engineering Department Diponegoro University (Indonesia); Chemical Engineering Departement University of Pembangunan Nasional Yogyakarta (Indonesia); Prasetyaningrum, Aji, E-mail: ajiprasetyaningrum@gmail.com; Kusworo, Tutuk D.; Pramudono, Bambang, E-mail: Pramudono2004@yahoo.com [Chemical Engineering Department Diponegoro University (Indonesia); Dyartanti, Endah R. [Chemical Engineering Department Diponegoro University (Indonesia); Chemical Enginering Departement Sebelas Maret University (Indonesia)

2016-02-08

Any type of surfactant has a hydrophilic-lipophilic balance number (HLB number) of different. There are several methods for determining the HLB number, with ohysical properties of surfactant (solubility cloud point and interfacial tension), CMC methods and by thermodynamics properties (Free energy Gibbs). This paper proposes to determined HLB numbers from interfelation methods. The result of study indicated that the CMC method described by Hair and Moulik espesially for nonionic surfactant. The application of exess Gibbs free energy and by implication activity coefficient provides the ability to predict the behavior of surfactants in multi component mixtures of different concentration. Determination of HLB number by solubility and cloud point parameter is spesific for anionic and nonionic surfactant but this methods not available for cationic surfactants.

Basic reproduction number of coxsackievirus type A6 and A16 and enterovirus 71: estimates from outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease in Singapore, a tropical city-state.

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, C T K; Jiang, L; Ma, S; James, L; Ang, L W

2016-04-01

Coxsackievirus A6 (CV-A6), coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) and enterovirus 71 (EV-A71) were the major enteroviruses causing nationwide hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics in Singapore in the last decade. We estimated the basic reproduction number (R 0) of these enteroviruses to obtain a better understanding of their transmission dynamics. We merged records of cases from HFMD outbreaks reported between 2007 and 2012 with laboratory results from virological surveillance. R 0 was estimated based on the cumulative number of reported cases in the initial growth phase of each outbreak associated with the particular enterovirus type. A total of 33 HFMD outbreaks were selected based on the inclusion criteria specified for our study, of which five were associated with CV-A6, 13 with CV-A16, and 15 with EV-A71. The median R 0 was estimated to be 5·04 [interquartile range (IQR) 3·57-5·16] for CV-A6, 2·42 (IQR 1·85-3·36) for CV-A16, and 3·50 (IQR 2·36-4·53) for EV-A71. R 0 was not significantly associated with number of infected children (P = 0·86), number of exposed children (P = 0·94), and duration of the outbreak (P = 0·05). These enterovirus-specific R 0 estimates will be helpful in providing insights into the potential growth of future HFMD epidemics and outbreaks for timely implementation of disease control measures, together with disease dynamics such as severity of the cases.

Estimating the Number of Eggs in Blow Fly (Diptera: Calliphoridae) Egg Masses Using Photographic Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosati, J Y; Pacheco, V A; Vankosky, M A; Vanlaerhoven, S L

2015-07-01

Little work has been done to quantify the number of eggs oviposited by blow flies (Diptera: Calliphoridae) in studies examining colonization behavior. Egg counting methods currently available are time-consuming and destructive. This study used ImageJ software and analysis of covariance to relate the volume of egg masses to the number of eggs laid by three different blow fly species: Lucilia sericata (Meigen), Phormia regina (Meigen), and Chrysomya rufifacies (Macquart). Egg mass volume, species, and the interaction of species and egg mass volume all affected the number of blow fly eggs deposited in egg masses. Both species identity and egg mass volume are important when predicting egg number, as such a single regression equation cannot be used to estimate egg number for these three species. Therefore, simple linear regression equations were determined for each species. The volume of individual eggs was incorporated into the model, yet differences between species were observed, suggesting that the orientation of the eggs oviposited by multiple conspecific females within egg masses influences egg estimates. Based on our results, we expect that imaging software can be used for other blow fly species, as well as other insect species; however, equations specific to each species must be developed. This study describes an important tool for quantifying egg deposition in a nondestructive manner, which is important in studying the colonization behavior and life history of insects of ecological and forensic importance. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Counting DNA: estimating the complexity of a test tube of DNA.

Science.gov (United States)

Faulhammer, D; Lipton, R J; Landweber, L F

1999-10-01

We consider the problem of estimation of the 'complexity' of a test tube of DNA. The complexity of a test tube is the number of different kinds of strands of DNA in the test tube. It is quite easy to estimate the number of total strands in a test tube, especially if the strands are all the same length. Estimation of the complexity is much less clear. We propose a simple kind of DNA computation that can estimate the complexity.

Mental Health Services Use Predicted by Number of Mental Health Problems and Gender in a Total Population Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maj-Britt Posserud

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We examined the relationship between service use and the number of problem areas as reported by parents and teachers on questionnaires among children aged 7–9 years old in the Bergen Child Study, a total population study including more than 9000 children. A problem area was counted as present if the child scored above the 95th percentile on parent and/or teacher questionnaire. A total number of 13 problem areas were included. Odd ratios (ORs for contact with child and adolescent mental health services (CAMH, school psychology services (SPS, health visiting nurse/physician, and school support were calculated with gender as covariate. The number of symptom areas was highly predictive of service use, showing a dose-response relationship for all services. Children scoring on ≥4 problem areas had a more than hundredfold risk of being in contact with CAMH services compared to children without problems. The mean number of problem areas for children in CAMH and SPS was 6.1 and 4.4 respectively, strongly supporting the ESSENCE model predicting multisymptomatology in children in specialized services. Even after controlling for number of problem areas, boys were twice as likely as girls to be in contact with CAMH, replicating previous findings of female gender being a strong barrier to mental health services.

Estimation of Kubo number and correlation length of fluctuating magnetic fields and pressure in BOUT + + edge pedestal collapse simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Jaewook; Lee, W.-J.; Jhang, Hogun; Kaang, H. H.; Ghim, Y.-C.

2017-10-01

Stochastic magnetic fields are thought to be as one of the possible mechanisms for anomalous transport of density, momentum and heat across the magnetic field lines. Kubo number and Chirikov parameter are quantifications of the stochasticity, and previous studies show that perpendicular transport strongly depends on the magnetic Kubo number (MKN). If MKN is smaller than one, diffusion process will follow Rechester-Rosenbluth model; whereas if it is larger than one, percolation theory dominates the diffusion process. Thus, estimation of Kubo number plays an important role to understand diffusion process caused by stochastic magnetic fields. However, spatially localized experimental measurement of fluctuating magnetic fields in a tokamak is difficult, and we attempt to estimate MKNs using BOUT + + simulation data with pedestal collapse. In addition, we calculate correlation length of fluctuating pressures and Chirikov parameters to investigate variation correlation lengths in the simulation. We, then, discuss how one may experimentally estimate MKNs.

Balancing selected medication costs with total number of daily injections: a preference analysis of GnRH-agonist and antagonist protocols by IVF patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sills E

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background During in vitro fertilization (IVF, fertility patients are expected to self-administer many injections as part of this treatment. While newer medications have been developed to substantially reduce the number of these injections, such agents are typically much more expensive. Considering these differences in both cost and number of injections, this study compared patient preferences between GnRH-agonist and GnRH-antagonist based protocols in IVF. Methods Data were collected by voluntary, anonymous questionnaire at first consultation appointment. Patient opinion concerning total number of s.c. injections as a function of non-reimbursed patient cost associated with GnRH-agonist [A] and GnRH-antagonist [B] protocols in IVF was studied. Results Completed questionnaires (n = 71 revealed a mean +/− SD patient age of 34 +/− 4.1 yrs. Most (83.1% had no prior IVF experience; 2.8% reported another medical condition requiring self-administration of subcutaneous medication(s. When out-of-pocket cost for [A] and [B] were identical, preference for [B] was registered by 50.7% patients. The tendency to favor protocol [B] was weaker among patients with a health occupation. Estimated patient costs for [A] and [B] were $259.82 +/− 11.75 and $654.55 +/− 106.34, respectively (p  Conclusions This investigation found consistently higher non-reimbursed direct medication costs for GnRH-antagonist IVF vs. GnRH-agonist IVF protocols. A conditional preference to minimize downregulation (using GnRH-antagonist was noted among some, but not all, IVF patient sub-groups. Compared to IVF patients with a health occupation, the preference for GnRH-antagonist was weaker than for other patients. While reducing total number of injections by using GnRH-antagonist is a desirable goal, it appears this advantage is not perceived equally by all IVF patients and its utility is likely discounted heavily by patients when nonreimbursed medication costs

An analytical approach to estimate the number of small scatterers in 2D inverse scattering problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fazli, Roohallah; Nakhkash, Mansor

2012-01-01

This paper presents an analytical method to estimate the location and number of actual small targets in 2D inverse scattering problems. This method is motivated from the exact maximum likelihood estimation of signal parameters in white Gaussian noise for the linear data model. In the first stage, the method uses the MUSIC algorithm to acquire all possible target locations and in the next stage, it employs an analytical formula that works as a spatial filter to determine which target locations are associated to the actual ones. The ability of the method is examined for both the Born and multiple scattering cases and for the cases of well-resolved and non-resolved targets. Many numerical simulations using both the coincident and non-coincident arrays demonstrate that the proposed method can detect the number of actual targets even in the case of very noisy data and when the targets are closely located. Using the experimental microwave data sets, we further show that this method is successful in specifying the number of small inclusions. (paper)

Number-counts slope estimation in the presence of Poisson noise

Science.gov (United States)

Schmitt, Juergen H. M. M.; Maccacaro, Tommaso

1986-01-01

The slope determination of a power-law number flux relationship in the case of photon-limited sampling. This case is important for high-sensitivity X-ray surveys with imaging telescopes, where the error in an individual source measurement depends on integrated flux and is Poisson, rather than Gaussian, distributed. A bias-free method of slope estimation is developed that takes into account the exact error distribution, the influence of background noise, and the effects of varying limiting sensitivities. It is shown that the resulting bias corrections are quite insensitive to the bias correction procedures applied, as long as only sources with signal-to-noise ratio five or greater are considered. However, if sources with signal-to-noise ratio five or less are included, the derived bias corrections depend sensitively on the shape of the error distribution.

Better Size Estimation for Sparse Matrix Products

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Amossen, Rasmus Resen; Campagna, Andrea; Pagh, Rasmus

2010-01-01

We consider the problem of doing fast and reliable estimation of the number of non-zero entries in a sparse Boolean matrix product. Let n denote the total number of non-zero entries in the input matrices. We show how to compute a 1 ± ε approximation (with small probability of error) in expected t...

An estimate of the potential number of mayfly species (Ephemeroptera, Insecta still to be described in Brazil

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Mylena Neves Cardoso

2015-07-01

Full Text Available This study reviewed the data on the Brazilian Ephemeroptera, based on the studies published before July, 2013, estimated the number of species still to be described, and identified which regions of the country have been the subject of least research. More than half the species are known from the description of only one developmental stage, with imagoes being described more frequently than nymphs. The Brazilian Northeast is the region with the weakest database. Body size affected description rates, with a strong tendency for the larger species to be described first. The estimated number of unknown Brazilian species was accentuated by the fact that so few species have been described so far. The steep slope of the asymptote and the considerable confidence interval of the estimate reinforce the conclusion that a large number of species are still to be described. This emphasizes the need for investments in the training of specialists in systematics and ecology for all regions of Brazil to correct these deficiencies, given the role of published papers as a primary source of information, and the fundamental importance of taxonomic knowledge for the development of effective measures for the conservation of ephemeropteran and the aquatic ecosystems they depend on. Keywords: Biodiversity, Prediction of species diversity, Mayflies

Estimation of equivalent dose and its uncertainty in the OSL SAR protocol when count numbers do not follow a Poisson distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bluszcz, Andrzej; Adamiec, Grzegorz; Heer, Aleksandra J.

2015-01-01

The current work focuses on the estimation of equivalent dose and its uncertainty using the single aliquot regenerative protocol in optically stimulated luminescence measurements. The authors show that the count numbers recorded with the use of photomultiplier tubes are well described by negative binomial distributions, different ones for background counts and photon induced counts. This fact is then exploited in pseudo-random count number generation and simulations of D e determination assuming a saturating exponential growth. A least squares fitting procedure is applied using different types of weights to determine whether the obtained D e 's and their error estimates are unbiased and accurate. A weighting procedure is suggested that leads to almost unbiased D e estimates. It is also shown that the assumption of Poisson distribution in D e estimation may lead to severe underestimation of the D e error. - Highlights: • Detailed analysis of statistics of count numbers in luminescence readers. • Generation of realistically scattered pseudo-random numbers of counts in luminescence measurements. • A practical guide for stringent analysis of D e values and errors assessment.

A model for estimating the minimum number of offspring to sample in studies of reproductive success.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Joseph H; Ward, Eric J; Carlson, Stephanie M

2011-01-01

Molecular parentage permits studies of selection and evolution in fecund species with cryptic mating systems, such as fish, amphibians, and insects. However, there exists no method for estimating the number of offspring that must be assigned parentage to achieve robust estimates of reproductive success when only a fraction of offspring can be sampled. We constructed a 2-stage model that first estimated the mean (μ) and variance (v) in reproductive success from published studies on salmonid fishes and then sampled offspring from reproductive success distributions simulated from the μ and v estimates. Results provided strong support for modeling salmonid reproductive success via the negative binomial distribution and suggested that few offspring samples are needed to reject the null hypothesis of uniform offspring production. However, the sampled reproductive success distributions deviated significantly (χ(2) goodness-of-fit test p value reproductive success distribution at rates often >0.05 and as high as 0.24, even when hundreds of offspring were assigned parentage. In general, reproductive success patterns were less accurate when offspring were sampled from cohorts with larger numbers of parents and greater variance in reproductive success. Our model can be reparameterized with data from other species and will aid researchers in planning reproductive success studies by providing explicit sampling targets required to accurately assess reproductive success.

Estimation the Number of Mortality Due to Cardiovascular and Respiratory disease, Attributed to pollutants O3, and NO2 in the Air of Tehran.

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Sevda Fallah jokandan

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction and Purpose: Nowadays, the air quality in many major cities is one of the most important environmental problems that seriously compromises the health of residents and causes a range of acute and chronic health effects. herefore, this study was aimed to quantify and estimate the health effects related to the pollutants NO2 and O3 in metropolis of Tehran in 2014 was done by AirQ model. Methods: Data acquired were collected from the environmental organization and the center of air quality control in Tehran. This data were analyzed by Microsoft Excel software, and the processed data was entered AirQ model. The relative risk, baseline incidence and the attributed proportion was estimated and the overall results in case of mortality and morbidity were presented in tables and graphs Results: The results showed that the average annual concentration of NO2 and O3 in Tehran, was respectively 130 and 64 μg/m3. According to the results with baseline incidence of 543.5 per 100,000, the total cumulative number of mortalities attributed to nitrogen dioxide and ozone, were estimated respectively to be 1593 and 946, that included about 2.66% and 1.58% of total mortalities except traffic accidents in Tehran. Conclusion: Our results showed that the level of air pollution has increased in Tehran, which requires more attention of authorities and policy makers to control the air pollution.

Estimating upper bounds for occupancy and number of manatees in areas potentially affected by oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

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Julien Martin

Full Text Available The explosion of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform created the largest marine oil spill in U.S. history. As part of the Natural Resource Damage Assessment process, we applied an innovative modeling approach to obtain upper estimates for occupancy and for number of manatees in areas potentially affected by the oil spill. Our data consisted of aerial survey counts in waters of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama and Mississippi. Our method, which uses a Bayesian approach, allows for the propagation of uncertainty associated with estimates from empirical data and from the published literature. We illustrate that it is possible to derive estimates of occupancy rate and upper estimates of the number of manatees present at the time of sampling, even when no manatees were observed in our sampled plots during surveys. We estimated that fewer than 2.4% of potentially affected manatee habitat in our Florida study area may have been occupied by manatees. The upper estimate for the number of manatees present in potentially impacted areas (within our study area was estimated with our model to be 74 (95%CI 46 to 107. This upper estimate for the number of manatees was conditioned on the upper 95%CI value of the occupancy rate. In other words, based on our estimates, it is highly probable that there were 107 or fewer manatees in our study area during the time of our surveys. Because our analyses apply to habitats considered likely manatee habitats, our inference is restricted to these sites and to the time frame of our surveys. Given that manatees may be hard to see during aerial surveys, it was important to account for imperfect detection. The approach that we described can be useful for determining the best allocation of resources for monitoring and conservation.

Leveraging Real-World Evidence in Disease-Management Decision-Making with a Total Cost of Care Estimator.

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Thanh-Nghia; Trocio, Jeffrey; Kowal, Stacey; Ferrufino, Cheryl P; Munakata, Julie; South, Dell

2016-12-01

Health management is becoming increasingly complex, given a range of care options and the need to balance costs and quality. The ability to measure and understand drivers of costs is critical for healthcare organizations to effectively manage their patient populations. Healthcare decision makers can leverage real-world evidence to explore the value of disease-management interventions in shifting total cost trends. To develop a real-world, evidence-based estimator that examines the impact of disease-management interventions on the total cost of care (TCoC) for a patient population with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Data were collected from a patient-level real-world evidence data set that uses the IMS PharMetrics Health Plan Claims Database. Pharmacy and medical claims for patients meeting the inclusion or exclusion criteria were combined in longitudinal cohorts with a 180-day preindex and 360-day follow-up period. Descriptive statistics, such as mean and median patient costs and event rates, were derived from a real-world evidence analysis and were used to populate the base-case estimates within the TCoC estimator, an exploratory economic model that was designed to estimate the potential impact of several disease-management activities on the TCoC for a patient population with NVAF. Using Microsoft Excel, the estimator is designed to compare current direct costs of medical care to projected costs by varying assumptions on the impact of disease-management activities and applying the associated changes in cost trends to the affected populations. Disease-management levers are derived from literature-based concepts affecting costs along the NVAF disease continuum. The use of the estimator supports analyses across 4 US geographic regions, age, cost types, and care settings during 1 year. All patients included in the study were continuously enrolled in their health plan (within the IMS PharMetrics Health Plan Claims Database) between July 1, 2010, and June 30

Curve Number Estimation for a Small Urban Catchment from Recorded Rainfall-Runoff Events

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Banasik Kazimierz

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Runoff estimation is a key component in various hydrological considerations. Estimation of storm runoff is especially important for the effective design of hydraulic and road structures, for the flood flow management, as well as for the analysis of land use changes, i.e. urbanization or low impact development of urban areas. The curve number (CN method, developed by Soil Conservation Service (SCS of the U.S. Department of Agriculture for predicting the flood runoff depth from ungauged catchments, has been in continuous use for ca. 60 years. This method has not been extensively tested in Poland, especially in small urban catchments, because of lack of data. In this study, 39 rainfall-runoff events, collected during four years (2009–2012 in a small (A=28.7 km2, urban catchment of Służew Creek in southwest part of Warsaw were used, with the aim of determining the CNs and to check its applicability to ungauged urban areas. The parameters CN, estimated empirically, vary from 65.1 to 95.0, decreasing with rainfall size and, when sorted rainfall and runoff separately, reaching the value from 67 to 74 for large rainfall events.

Analysis of total least squares in estimating the parameters of a mortar trajectory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lau, D.L.; Ng, L.C.

1994-12-01

Least Squares (LS) is a method of curve fitting used with the assumption that error exists in the observation vector. The method of Total Least Squares (TLS) is more useful in cases where there is error in the data matrix as well as the observation vector. This paper describes work done in comparing the LS and TLS results for parameter estimation of a mortar trajectory based on a time series of angular observations. To improve the results, we investigated several derivations of the LS and TLS methods, and early findings show TLS provided slightly, 10%, improved results over the LS method.

Estimation of the rate and number of underreported deliberate self-poisoning attempts in western Iran in 2015

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Mehdi Moradinazar

2017-06-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVES Rates of attempted deliberate self-poisoning (DSP are subject to undercounting, underreporting, and denial of the suicide attempt. In this study, we estimated the rate of underreported DSP, which is the most common method of attempted suicide in Iran. METHODS We estimated the rate and number of unaccounted individuals who attempted DSP in western Iran in 2015 using a truncated count model. In this method, the number of people who attempted DSP but were not referred to any health care centers, n0, was calculated through integrating hospital and forensic data. The crude and age-adjusted rates of attempted DSP were estimated directly using the average population size of the city of Kermanshah and the World Health Organization (WHO world standard population with and without accounting for underreporting. The Monte Carlo method was used to determine the confidence level. RESULTS The recorded number of people who attempted DSP was estimated by different methods to be in the range of 46.6 to 53.2% of the actual number of individuals who attempted DSP. The rate of underreported cases was higher among women than men and decreased as age increased. The rate of underreported cases decreased as the potency and intensity of toxic factors increased. The highest underreporting rates of 69.9, 51.2, and 21.5% were observed when oil and detergents (International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision [ICD-10] code: X66, medications (ICD-10 code: X60-X64, and agricultural toxins (ICD-10 codes: X68, X69 were used for poisoning, respectively. Crude rates, with and without accounting for underreporting, were estimated by the mixture method as 167.5 per 100,000 persons and 331.7 per 100,000 persons, respectively, which decreased to 129.8 per 100,000 persons and 253.1 per 100,000 persons after adjusting for age on the basis of the WHO world standard population. CONCLUSIONS Nearly half of individuals who attempted DSP were not referred to a hospital for

Uncertainty Model for Total Solar Irradiance Estimation on Australian Rooftops

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Saadi, Hassan; Zivanovic, Rastko; Al-Sarawi, Said

2017-11-01

The installations of solar panels on Australian rooftops have been in rise for the last few years, especially in the urban areas. This motivates academic researchers, distribution network operators and engineers to accurately address the level of uncertainty resulting from grid-connected solar panels. The main source of uncertainty is the intermittent nature of radiation, therefore, this paper presents a new model to estimate the total radiation incident on a tilted solar panel. Where a probability distribution factorizes clearness index, the model is driven upon clearness index with special attention being paid for Australia with the utilization of best-fit-correlation for diffuse fraction. The assessment of the model validity is achieved with the adoption of four goodness-of-fit techniques. In addition, the Quasi Monte Carlo and sparse grid methods are used as sampling and uncertainty computation tools, respectively. High resolution data resolution of solar irradiations for Adelaide city were used for this assessment, with an outcome indicating a satisfactory agreement between actual data variation and model.

NUMBER OF COWS AND BAGS NEEDED TO ESTIMATE in situ DRY MATTER DEGRADATION OF KINGGRASS (Pennisetum purpureum LEAVES

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Epigmenio Castillo-Gallegos

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The number of bags to be incubated per sample, and the number of fistulated cows needed to estimate in situ ruminal degradation of Kinggrass (Pennisetum purpureum dry matter (DMD % were determined. Three rumen-fistulated cows and 10 bags per incubation time (3, 6, 9, 12, 24, 48 and 72 h were used. Five grams of dried leaves were weighed per bag. Variance components for cows (Vc and bags (Vb per incubation time were estimated and used to calculate the standard error (SE of mean DMD. The adequate number of bags to be used was the one that produced a value of 1 % (SE of the study. Precision increased as the number of cows increased, with mean SE of 1.66, 1.18 and 0.96 % for one, two and three cows, respectively. Precision remained more or less constant for incubation times of 3, 6, 9, 12 and 48 h, with respective values of 0.93, 0.81, 1.05, 0.92 and 1.08 %. The SE values doubled at 24 (2.15 and 72 (1.92 h. The EE diminished as the number of bags increased, being the values higher for one cow than for two or three cows, but these differences were slight when 10 bags were used. The use of two cows seems reasonable, since the increase in precision from one to two cows was greater than from two to three cows. Three bags were the minimum necessary to estimate the SE value of 1%.

No postnatal doubling of number of neurons in human Broca's areas (Brodmann areas 44 and 45)? A stereological study.

Science.gov (United States)

Uylings, H B M; Malofeeva, L I; Bogolepova, I N; Jacobsen, A M; Amunts, K; Zilles, K

2005-01-01

In this study we explored whether a postnatal doubling of the total number of neurons occurs in the human Brodmann areas 44 and 45 (Broca's area). We describe the most recent error prediction formulae and their application for the modern stereological estimators for volume and number of neurons. We estimated the number of neurons in 3D optical disector probes systematically random sampled throughout the entire Brodmann areas (BA) 44 and 45 in developing and young adult cases. In the relatively small number of male and female cases studied no substantial postnatal increase in total number of neurons occurred in areas 44 and 45; the volume of these areas reached adult values around 7 years. In addition, we did find indications that a shift from a right-over-left to a left-over-right asymmetry may occur in the volume of BA 45 during postnatal development. No major asymmetry in total number of neurons in BA 44 and 45 was detected.

Estimating tree cavity distributions from historical FIA data

Science.gov (United States)

Mark D. Nelson; Charlotte. Roy

2012-01-01

Tree cavities provide important habitat features for a variety of wildlife species. We describe an approach for using historical FIA data to estimate the number of trees containing cavities during the 1990s in seven states of the Upper Midwest. We estimated a total of 280 million cavity-containing trees. Iowa and Missouri had the highest percentages of cavity-...

Alpha-1 antitrypsin Pi*SZ genotype: estimated prevalence and number of SZ subjects worldwide

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Blanco I

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Ignacio Blanco,1 Patricia Bueno,2 Isidro Diego,3 Sergio Pérez-Holanda,4 Beatriz Lara,5 Francisco Casas-Maldonado,6 Cristina Esquinas,7 Marc Miravitlles7,8 1Alpha1-Antitrypsin Deficiency Spanish Registry (REDAAT, Lung Foundation Breathe, Spanish Society of Pneumology (SEPAR, Barcelona, Spain; 2Internal Medicine Department, County Hospital of Jarrio, Principality of Asturias, Spain; 3Materials and Energy Department, School of Mining Engineering, Oviedo University, Principality of Asturias, Spain; 4Surgical Department, University Central Hospital of Asturias, Oviedo, Spain; 5Respiratory Medicine Department, Coventry and Warwickshire University Hospital, Coventry, UK; 6Pneumology Department, University Hospital San Cecilio, Granada, Spain; 7Pneumology Department, Hospital Universitari Vall d’Hebron, Barcelona, Spain; 8CIBER de Enfermedades Respiratorias (CIBERES, Barcelona, Spain Abstract: The alpha-1 antitrypsin (AAT haplotype Pi*S, when inherited along with the Pi*Z haplotype to form a Pi*SZ genotype, can be associated with pulmonary emphysema in regular smokers, and less frequently with liver disease, panniculitis, and systemic vasculitis in a small percentage of people, but this connection is less well established. Since the detection of cases can allow the application of preventive measures in patients and relatives with this congenital disorder, the objective of this study was to update the prevalence of the SZ genotype to achieve accurate estimates of the number of Pi*SZ subjects worldwide, based on studies performed according to the following criteria: 1 samples representative of the general population, 2 AAT phenotyping characterized by adequate methods, and 3 selection of studies with reliable results assessed with a coefficient of variation calculated from the sample size and 95% confidence intervals. Studies fulfilling these criteria were used to develop tables and maps with an inverse distance-weighted (IDW interpolation method, to

Long-term memory in Aplysia modulates the total number of varicosities of single identified sensory neurons.

OpenAIRE

Bailey, C H; Chen, M

1988-01-01

The morphological consequences of long-term habituation and sensitization of the gill withdrawal reflex in Aplysia california were explored by examining the total number of presynaptic varicosities of single identified sensory neurons (a critical site of plasticity for the biochemical and biophysical changes that underlie both types of learning) in control and behaviorally trained animals. Sensory neurons from habituated animals had 35% fewer synaptic varicosities than did sensory neurons fro...

Shape discrimination by total curvature, with a view to cancer diagnostics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gardner, R.J.; Hobolth, Asger; Jensen, Eva Bjørn Vedel

2005-01-01

This paper investigates the use of total curvature for shape discrimination of objects via profiles of their planar sections (not assumed to be star shaped). Methods of estimating total curvature from observation of a finite number of points on the boundary of the object are investigated, includi...... a simple discrete approximation method and various interpolation methods. Total curvature is capable of revealing shape differences on a local scale, as demonstrated by the analysis of two data sets of malignant and normal or benign tumour cell nuclear profiles....

Thermal requirements and estimated number of generations of Neopamera bilobata (Say in strawberry-producing regions of Brazil

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Taciana Melissa de Azevedo Kuhn

2017-12-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The thermal threshold and thermal requirements of Neopamera bilobata were determined, and the number of generations that this species may produce in the main strawberry-producing regions of Brazil was estimated. In a climate chamber (70±10% RH and 12h photophase at 16, 19, 22, 25, 28, or 30±1°C, the development of 120 eggs was monitored until the adult stage, at each temperature. Nymphs were maintained in individual cages and fed on strawberry fruits of the cultivar Aromas. The mean duration and viability of the egg and nymph stages were calculated by estimating the lower and upper developmental thresholds and the thermal constant, and this information was used to estimate the number of generations per year in different strawberry-producing regions of Brazil. The egg-to-adult duration decreased as temperatures increased, up to 28°C (93.4, 83.2, 43.9, and 31.4 days at 19, 22, 25, and 28°C, respectively. Viability of nymphs was highest between 22 and 28°C. At 30°C, the egg-to-adult duration increased (36 days, while the viability decreased (11.11%. The lower egg-to-adult developmental threshold was 15.2°C and the thermal constant was 418.4 degree-days. Calculating the number of generations indicated that the largest number (5.1 generations yr-1 was obtained for the municipality of Jaboti, Paraná, and the smallest for Caxias do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul (1.9 generations yr-1. Our findings demonstrated that important strawberry-producing regions in Brazil are suitable for the development of N. bilobata.

Number line estimation and complex mental calculation: Is there a shared cognitive process driving the two tasks?

Science.gov (United States)

Montefinese, Maria; Semenza, Carlo

2018-05-17

It is widely accepted that different number-related tasks, including solving simple addition and subtraction, may induce attentional shifts on the so-called mental number line, which represents larger numbers on the right and smaller numbers on the left. Recently, it has been shown that different number-related tasks also employ spatial attention shifts along with general cognitive processes. Here we investigated for the first time whether number line estimation and complex mental arithmetic recruit a common mechanism in healthy adults. Participants' performance in two-digit mental additions and subtractions using visual stimuli was compared with their performance in a mental bisection task using auditory numerical intervals. Results showed significant correlations between participants' performance in number line bisection and that in two-digit mental arithmetic operations, especially in additions, providing a first proof of a shared cognitive mechanism (or multiple shared cognitive mechanisms) between auditory number bisection and complex mental calculation.

A New Method for Estimating the Number of Harmonic Components in Noise with Application in High Resolution Radar

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Radoi Emanuel

2004-01-01

Full Text Available In order to operate properly, the superresolution methods based on orthogonal subspace decomposition, such as multiple signal classification (MUSIC or estimation of signal parameters by rotational invariance techniques (ESPRIT, need accurate estimation of the signal subspace dimension, that is, of the number of harmonic components that are superimposed and corrupted by noise. This estimation is particularly difficult when the S/N ratio is low and the statistical properties of the noise are unknown. Moreover, in some applications such as radar imagery, it is very important to avoid underestimation of the number of harmonic components which are associated to the target scattering centers. In this paper, we propose an effective method for the estimation of the signal subspace dimension which is able to operate against colored noise with performances superior to those exhibited by the classical information theoretic criteria of Akaike and Rissanen. The capabilities of the new method are demonstrated through computer simulations and it is proved that compared to three other methods it carries out the best trade-off from four points of view, S/N ratio in white noise, frequency band of colored noise, dynamic range of the harmonic component amplitudes, and computing time.

Sampling point selection for energy estimation in the quasicontinuum method

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beex, L.A.A.; Peerlings, R.H.J.; Geers, M.G.D.

2010-01-01

The quasicontinuum (QC) method reduces computational costs of atomistic calculations by using interpolation between a small number of so-called repatoms to represent the displacements of the complete lattice and by selecting a small number of sampling atoms to estimate the total potential energy of

Use of flow cytometry for high-throughput cell population estimates in fixed brain tissue

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Nicole A Young

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The numbers and types of cells in an area of cortex define its function. Therefore it is essential to characterize the numbers and distributions of total cells in areas of the cortex, as well as to identify numbers of subclasses of neurons and glial cells. To date, the large size of the primate brain and the lack of innovation in cell counting methods have been a roadblock to obtaining high-resolution maps of cell and neuron density across the cortex in humans and non-human primates. Stereological counting methods and the isotropic fractionator are valuable tools for estimating cell numbers, but are better suited to smaller, well-defined brain structures or to cortex as a whole. In the present study, we have extended our flow-cytometry based counting method, the flow fractionator (Collins et al., 2010a, to include high-throughput total cell population estimates in homogenized cortical samples. We demonstrate that our method produces consistent, accurate and repeatable cell estimates quickly. The estimates we report are in excellent agreement with estimates for the same samples obtained using a Neubauer chamber and a fluorescence microscope. We show that our flow cytometry-based method for total cell estimation in homogenized brain tissue is more efficient and more precise than manual counting methods. The addition of automated nuclei counting to our flow fractionator method allows for a fully automated, rapid characterization of total cells and neuronal and non-neuronal populations in human and non-human primate brains, providing valuable data to further our understanding of the functional organization of normal, aging and diseased brains.

Total and size-resolved particle number and black carbon concentrations in urban areas near Schiphol airport (the Netherlands)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Keuken, M.P.; Moerman, M.; Zandveld, P.; Henzing, J.S.; Hoek, G.

2015-01-01

The presence of black carbon, and size-resolved and total particle number concentrations (PNC) were investigated in the vicinity of Schiphol airport in the Netherlands, the fourth busiest airport in Europe. Continuous measurements were conducted between March and May 2014at Adamse Bos, located 7km

Population estimates of extended family structure and size.

Science.gov (United States)

Garceau, Anne; Wideroff, Louise; McNeel, Timothy; Dunn, Marsha; Graubard, Barry I

2008-01-01

Population-based estimates of biological family size can be useful for planning genetic studies, assessing how distributions of relatives affect disease associations with family history and estimating prevalence of potential family support. Mean family size per person is estimated from a population-based telephone survey (n = 1,019). After multivariate adjustment for demographic variables, older and non-White respondents reported greater mean numbers of total, first- and second-degree relatives. Females reported more total and first-degree relatives, while less educated respondents reported more second-degree relatives. Demographic differences in family size have implications for genetic research. Therefore, periodic collection of family structure data in representative populations would be useful. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

The Effects of Mode of Presentation and Number of Categories on 4-Year-Olds' Proportion Estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Widom, Cathy Spatz; Ginsburg, Herbert

Two experiments investigate the effects of mode of presentation and number of categories on 4-year-olds' proportion estimates. Experiment I compares simultaneous and successive presentations of proportion problems using two categories of elements. The subjects were 40 children chosen randomly and tested individually. Four problems were presented…

A Method of Determination of an Acquisition Program in Order to Maximize the Total Utility Using Linear Programming in Integer Numbers

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Alin Cristian Ioan

2010-03-01

Full Text Available This paper solves in a different way the problem of maximization of the total utility using the linear programming in integer numbers. The author uses the diofantic equations (equations in integers numbers and after a decomposing in different cases, he obtains the maximal utility.

Estimation of Filling and Afterload Conditions by Pump Intrinsic Parameters in a Pulsatile Total Artificial Heart.

Science.gov (United States)

Cuenca-Navalon, Elena; Laumen, Marco; Finocchiaro, Thomas; Steinseifer, Ulrich

2016-07-01

A physiological control algorithm is being developed to ensure an optimal physiological interaction between the ReinHeart total artificial heart (TAH) and the circulatory system. A key factor for that is the long-term, accurate determination of the hemodynamic state of the cardiovascular system. This study presents a method to determine estimation models for predicting hemodynamic parameters (pump chamber filling and afterload) from both left and right cardiovascular circulations. The estimation models are based on linear regression models that correlate filling and afterload values with pump intrinsic parameters derived from measured values of motor current and piston position. Predictions for filling lie in average within 5% from actual values, predictions for systemic afterload (AoPmean , AoPsys ) and mean pulmonary afterload (PAPmean ) lie in average within 9% from actual values. Predictions for systolic pulmonary afterload (PAPsys ) present an average deviation of 14%. The estimation models show satisfactory prediction and confidence intervals and are thus suitable to estimate hemodynamic parameters. This method and derived estimation models are a valuable alternative to implanted sensors and are an essential step for the development of a physiological control algorithm for a fully implantable TAH. Copyright © 2015 International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimating Total Claim Size in the Auto Insurance Industry: a Comparison between Tweedie and Zero-Adjusted Inverse Gaussian Distribution

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Adriana Bruscato Bortoluzzo

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this article is to estimate insurance claims from an auto dataset using the Tweedie and zero-adjusted inverse Gaussian (ZAIG methods. We identify factors that influence claim size and probability, and compare the results of these methods which both forecast outcomes accurately. Vehicle characteristics like territory, age, origin and type distinctly influence claim size and probability. This distinct impact is not always present in the Tweedie estimated model. Auto insurers should consider estimating total claim size using both the Tweedie and ZAIG methods. This allows for an estimation of confidence interval based on empirical quantiles using bootstrap simulation. Furthermore, the fitted models may be useful in developing a strategy to obtain premium pricing.

Blind estimation of the number of speech source in reverberant multisource scenarios based on binaural signals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

May, Tobias; van de Par, Steven

2012-01-01

In this paper we present a new approach for estimating the number of active speech sources in the presence of interfering noise sources and reverberation. First, a binaural front-end is used to detect the spatial positions of all active sound sources, resulting in a binary mask for each candidate...... on a support vector machine (SVM) classifier. A systematic analysis shows that the proposed algorithm is able to blindly determine the number and the corresponding spatial positions of speech sources in multisource scenarios and generalizes well to unknown acoustic conditions...

Estimating tree species richness from forest inventory plot data

Science.gov (United States)

Ronald E. McRoberts; Dacia M. Meneguzzo

2007-01-01

Montreal Process Criterion 1, Conservation of Biological Diversity, expresses species diversity in terms of number of forest dependent species. Species richness, defined as the total number of species present, is a common metric for analyzing species diversity. A crucial difficulty in estimating species richness from sample data obtained from sources such as inventory...

Estimation of the number of fluorescent end-members for quantitative analysis of multispectral FLIM data.

Science.gov (United States)

Gutierrez-Navarro, Omar; Campos-Delgado, Daniel U; Arce-Santana, Edgar R; Maitland, Kristen C; Cheng, Shuna; Jabbour, Joey; Malik, Bilal; Cuenca, Rodrigo; Jo, Javier A

2014-05-19

Multispectral fluorescence lifetime imaging (m-FLIM) can potentially allow identifying the endogenous fluorophores present in biological tissue. Quantitative description of such data requires estimating the number of components in the sample, their characteristic fluorescent decays, and their relative contributions or abundances. Unfortunately, this inverse problem usually requires prior knowledge about the data, which is seldom available in biomedical applications. This work presents a new methodology to estimate the number of potential endogenous fluorophores present in biological tissue samples from time-domain m-FLIM data. Furthermore, a completely blind linear unmixing algorithm is proposed. The method was validated using both synthetic and experimental m-FLIM data. The experimental m-FLIM data include in-vivo measurements from healthy and cancerous hamster cheek-pouch epithelial tissue, and ex-vivo measurements from human coronary atherosclerotic plaques. The analysis of m-FLIM data from in-vivo hamster oral mucosa identified healthy from precancerous lesions, based on the relative concentration of their characteristic fluorophores. The algorithm also provided a better description of atherosclerotic plaques in term of their endogenous fluorophores. These results demonstrate the potential of this methodology to provide quantitative description of tissue biochemical composition.

Estimation of regional intrapulmonary moisture volumes by pulmonary CT numbers in CT views

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakamoto, Takaaki; Kato, Shiro; Yoshimura, Masaharu

1987-01-01

In order to study the regional intrapulmonary moisture volume in normal lungs, lungs with congestion, and lungs with increased blood flow, a series of 42 subjects underwent transverse computed tomography (CT) scanning performed at a total of 17 points corresponding to the upper (7), middle (3), and lower (7) lung fields. The subjects were divided into group I (n = 24, with left-sided heart failure), group II (n = 8, with left-to-right shunt heart disease), and group III (n = 10, normals). In group I, the pulmonary peripheral minus CT numbers were inversely correlated with the pulmonary wedge mean pressure and pulmonary arterial mean pressure; and were linearly correlated with pulmonary blood flow (PBF). In group II, they were inversely correlated with PBF and left-to-right shunt volume. The pulmonary pheripheral CT numbers were significantly higher in both groups I and II than group III. In group III, these CT numbers were higher in the posterior field than the anterior field in supine position. (Hou, H.L.)

The total satellite population of the Milky Way

Science.gov (United States)

Newton, Oliver; Cautun, Marius; Jenkins, Adrian; Frenk, Carlos S.; Helly, John C.

2018-05-01

The total number and luminosity function of the population of dwarf galaxies of the Milky Way (MW) provide important constraints on the nature of the dark matter and on the astrophysics of galaxy formation at low masses. However, only a partial census of this population exists because of the flux limits and restricted sky coverage of existing Galactic surveys. We combine the sample of satellites recently discovered by the Dark Energy Survey (DES) survey with the satellites found in Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 9 (together these surveys cover nearly half the sky) to estimate the total luminosity function of satellites down to MV = 0. We apply a new Bayesian inference method in which we assume that the radial distribution of satellites independently of absolute magnitude follows that of subhaloes selected according to their peak maximum circular velocity. We find that there should be at least 124^{+40}_{-27}(68% CL, statistical error) satellites brighter than MV = 0 within 300kpc of the Sun. As a result of our use of new data and better simulations, and a more robust statistical method, we infer a much smaller population of satellites than reported in previous studies using earlier SDSS data only; we also address an underestimation of the uncertainties in earlier work by accounting for stochastic effects. We find that the inferred number of faint satellites depends only weakly on the assumed mass of the MW halo and we provide scaling relations to extend our results to different assumed halo masses and outer radii. We predict that half of our estimated total satellite population of the MW should be detected by the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). The code implementing our estimation method is available online.†

MRI estimation of total renal volume demonstrates significant association with healthy donor weight

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cohen, Emil I.; Kelly, Sarah A.; Edye, Michael; Mitty, Harold A.; Bromberg, Jonathan S.

2009-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to correlate total renal volume (TRV) calculations, obtained through the voxel-count method and ellipsoid formula with various physical characteristics. Materials and methods: MRI reports and physical examination from 210 healthy kidney donors (420 kidneys), on whom renal volumes were obtained using the voxel-count method, were retrospectively reviewed. These values along with ones obtained through a more traditional method (ellipsoid formula) were correlated with subject height, body weight, body mass index (BMI), and age. Results: TRV correlated strongly with body weight (r = 0.7) and to a lesser degree with height, age, or BMI (r = 0.5, -0.2, 0.3, respectively). The left kidney volume was greater than the right, on average (p < 0.001). The ellipsoid formula method over-estimated renal volume by 17% on average which was significant (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Body weight was the physical characteristic which demonstrated the strongest correlation with renal volume in healthy subjects. Given this finding, a formula was derived for estimating the TRV for a given patient based on the his or her weight: TRV = 2.96 x weight (kg) + 113 ± 64.

Estimation of inhaled airborne particle number concentration by subway users in Seoul, Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Minhae; Park, Sechan; Namgung, Hyeong-Gyu; Kwon, Soon-Bark

2017-01-01

Exposure to airborne particulate matter (PM) causes several diseases in the human body. The smaller particles, which have relatively large surface areas, are actually more harmful to the human body since they can penetrate deeper parts of the lungs or become secondary pollutants by bonding with other atmospheric pollutants, such as nitrogen oxides. The purpose of this study is to present the number of PM inhaled by subway users as a possible reference material for any analysis of the hazards to the human body arising from the inhalation of such PM. Two transfer stations in Seoul, Korea, which have the greatest number of users, were selected for this study. For 0.3–0.422 μm PM, particle number concentration (PNC) was highest outdoors but decreased as the tester moved deeper underground. On the other hand, the PNC between 1 and 10 μm increased as the tester moved deeper underground and showed a high number concentration inside the subway train as well. An analysis of the particles to which subway users are actually exposed to (inhaled particle number), using particle concentration at each measurement location, the average inhalation rate of an adult, and the average stay time at each location, all showed that particles sized 0.01–0.422 μm are mostly inhaled from the outdoor air whereas particles sized 1–10 μm are inhaled as the passengers move deeper underground. Based on these findings, we expect that the inhaled particle number of subway users can be used as reference data for an evaluation of the hazards to health caused by PM inhalation. - Highlights: • Size-dependent aerosol number was measured along the path of subway user. • Particles less than 0.4 μm were inhaled in outdoor but less so as deeper underground. • Coarse particles were inhaled significantly as users moved deeper underground. - We estimated the inhaled aerosol number concentration depending on particle size along the path of subway users.

Analyzing indirect effects in cluster randomized trials. The effect of estimation method, number of groups and group sizes on accuracy and power.

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Joop eHox

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Cluster randomized trials assess the effect of an intervention that is carried out at the group or cluster level. Ajzen’s theory of planned behaviour is often used to model the effect of the intervention as an indirect effect mediated in turn by attitude, norms and behavioural intention. Structural equation modelling (SEM is the technique of choice to estimate indirect effects and their significance. However, this is a large sample technique, and its application in a cluster randomized trial assumes a relatively large number of clusters. In practice, the number of clusters in these studies tends to be relatively small, e.g. much less than fifty. This study uses simulation methods to find the lowest number of clusters needed when multilevel SEM is used to estimate the indirect effect. Maximum likelihood estimation is compared to Bayesian analysis, with the central quality criteria being accuracy of the point estimate and the confidence interval. We also investigate the power of the test for the indirect effect. We conclude that Bayes estimation works well with much smaller cluster level sample sizes such as 20 cases than maximum likelihood estimation; although the bias is larger the coverage is much better. When only 5 to 10 clusters are available per treatment condition even with Bayesian estimation problems occur.

The Development of Symbolic and Non-Symbolic Number Line Estimations: Three Developmental Accounts Contrasted Within Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Data

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Delphine Sasanguie

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Three theoretical accounts have been put forward for the development of children’s response patterns on number line estimation tasks: the log-to-linear representational shift, the two-linear-to-linear transformation and the proportion judgment account. These three accounts have not been contrasted, however, within one study, using one single criterion to determine which model provides the best fit. The present study contrasted these three accounts by examining first, second and sixth graders with a symbolic and non-symbolic number line estimation task (Experiment 1. In addition, first and second graders were tested again one year later (Experiment 2. In case of symbolic estimations, the proportion judgment account described the data best. Most young children’s non-symbolic estimation patterns were best described by a logarithmic model (within the log-to-lin account, whereas those of most older children were best described by the simple power model (within the proportion judgment account.

Estimating the number of female sex workers in Côte d'Ivoire: results and lessons learned.

Science.gov (United States)

Vuylsteke, Bea; Sika, Lazare; Semdé, Gisèle; Anoma, Camille; Kacou, Elise; Laga, Marie

2017-09-01

To report on the results of three size estimations of the populations of female sex workers (FSW) in five cities in Côte d'Ivoire and on operational lessons learned, which may be relevant for key population programmes in other parts of the world. We applied three methods: mapping and census, capture-recapture and service multiplier. All were applied between 2008 and 2009 in Abidjan, San Pedro, Bouaké, Yamoussoukro and Abengourou. Abidjan was the city with the highest number of FSW by far, with estimations between 7880 (census) and 13 714 (service multiplier). The estimations in San Pedro, Bouaké and Yamoussoukro were very similar, with figures ranging from 1160 (Yamoussoukro, census) to 1916 (San Pedro, capture-recapture). Important operational lessons were learned, including strategies for mapping, the importance of involving peer sex workers for implementing the capture-recapture and the identification of the right question for the multiplier method. Successful application of three methods to estimate the population size of FSW in five cities in Côte d'Ivoire enabled us to make recommendations for size estimations of key population in low-income countries. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Number Line Estimation in Children with Developmental Dyscalculia

Science.gov (United States)

Sella, Francesco; Berteletti, Ilaria; Martina, Brazzolotto; Lucangeli, Daniela; Zorzi, Marco

2013-01-01

In the number to position task, several studies have shown that typically developing children shift from a biased (logarithmic) to an accurate (linear) mapping of symbolic digits onto a spatial position on a line. The initial pattern of overestimation of small numbers and the underestimation of larger numbers is compensated by means of age and…

Estimates of azimuthal numbers associated with elementary elliptic cylinder wave functions

Science.gov (United States)

Kovalev, V. A.; Radaev, Yu. N.

2014-05-01

The paper deals with issues related to the construction of solutions, 2 π-periodic in the angular variable, of the Mathieu differential equation for the circular elliptic cylinder harmonics, the associated characteristic values, and the azimuthal numbers needed to form the elementary elliptic cylinder wave functions. A superposition of the latter is one possible form for representing the analytic solution of the thermoelastic wave propagation problem in long waveguides with elliptic cross-section contour. The classical Sturm-Liouville problem for the Mathieu equation is reduced to a spectral problem for a linear self-adjoint operator in the Hilbert space of infinite square summable two-sided sequences. An approach is proposed that permits one to derive rather simple algorithms for computing the characteristic values of the angular Mathieu equation with real parameters and the corresponding eigenfunctions. Priority is given to the application of the most symmetric forms and equations that have not yet been used in the theory of the Mathieu equation. These algorithms amount to constructing a matrix diagonalizing an infinite symmetric pentadiagonal matrix. The problem of generalizing the notion of azimuthal number of a wave propagating in a cylindrical waveguide to the case of elliptic geometry is considered. Two-sided mutually refining estimates are constructed for the spectral values of the Mathieu differential operator with periodic and half-periodic (antiperiodic) boundary conditions.

PACE: Probabilistic Assessment for Contributor Estimation- A machine learning-based assessment of the number of contributors in DNA mixtures.

Science.gov (United States)

Marciano, Michael A; Adelman, Jonathan D

2017-03-01

The deconvolution of DNA mixtures remains one of the most critical challenges in the field of forensic DNA analysis. In addition, of all the data features required to perform such deconvolution, the number of contributors in the sample is widely considered the most important, and, if incorrectly chosen, the most likely to negatively influence the mixture interpretation of a DNA profile. Unfortunately, most current approaches to mixture deconvolution require the assumption that the number of contributors is known by the analyst, an assumption that can prove to be especially faulty when faced with increasingly complex mixtures of 3 or more contributors. In this study, we propose a probabilistic approach for estimating the number of contributors in a DNA mixture that leverages the strengths of machine learning. To assess this approach, we compare classification performances of six machine learning algorithms and evaluate the model from the top-performing algorithm against the current state of the art in the field of contributor number classification. Overall results show over 98% accuracy in identifying the number of contributors in a DNA mixture of up to 4 contributors. Comparative results showed 3-person mixtures had a classification accuracy improvement of over 6% compared to the current best-in-field methodology, and that 4-person mixtures had a classification accuracy improvement of over 20%. The Probabilistic Assessment for Contributor Estimation (PACE) also accomplishes classification of mixtures of up to 4 contributors in less than 1s using a standard laptop or desktop computer. Considering the high classification accuracy rates, as well as the significant time commitment required by the current state of the art model versus seconds required by a machine learning-derived model, the approach described herein provides a promising means of estimating the number of contributors and, subsequently, will lead to improved DNA mixture interpretation. Copyright © 2016

In vitro anthelmintic activity of Barleria buxifolia on Indian adult earthworms and estimation of total flavonoid content

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Purna A. Chander

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Objective: To study the anthelmintic activity of Barleria buxifolia leaf and to estimate the total flavonoid content. Methods: The aqueous and ethanolic leaf extracts were prepared and these were analyzed for total flavonoid content by aluminium chloride colorimetric method and Pheretima posthuma was used for anthelmintic activity by using the different concentrations (10, 20, 40, 80 and 100 mg/mL. Results: All the investigational extracts showed an anthelmintic activity at concentration of 10 mg/mL. The ethanolic extract of 100 mg/mL has produced an significant effect (P<0.001 when compared to aqueous extract. The total flavonoid content was found to be 5.67 mg QE/100 g. Conclusions: From the above study, the leaf extract has shown a good anthelmintic activity.

Mark-resight approach as a tool to estimate population size of one of the world’s smallest goose populations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Clausen, Kevin Kuhlmann; Fælled, Casper Cæsar; Clausen, Preben

2013-01-01

The present study investigates the use of a mark–resight procedure to estimate total population size in a local goose population. Using colour-ring sightings of the increasingly scattered population of Light-bellied Brent Geese Branta bernicla hrota from their Danish staging areas, we estimate...... a total population size of 7845 birds (95% CI: 7252–8438). This is in good agreement with numbers obtained from total counts, emphasizing that this population, although steadily increasing, is still small compared with historic numbers....

Parameter and state estimation in a Neisseria meningitidis model: A study case of Niger

Science.gov (United States)

Bowong, S.; Mountaga, L.; Bah, A.; Tewa, J. J.; Kurths, J.

2016-12-01

Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) is a major cause of bacterial meningitidis outbreaks in Africa and the Middle East. The availability of yearly reported meningitis cases in the African meningitis belt offers the opportunity to analyze the transmission dynamics and the impact of control strategies. In this paper, we propose a method for the estimation of state variables that are not accessible to measurements and an unknown parameter in a Nm model. We suppose that the yearly number of Nm induced mortality and the total population are known inputs, which can be obtained from data, and the yearly number of new Nm cases is the model output. We also suppose that the Nm transmission rate is an unknown parameter. We first show how the recruitment rate into the population can be estimated using real data of the total population and Nm induced mortality. Then, we use an auxiliary system called observer whose solutions converge exponentially to those of the original model. This observer does not use the unknown infection transmission rate but only uses the known inputs and the model output. This allows us to estimate unmeasured state variables such as the number of carriers that play an important role in the transmission of the infection and the total number of infected individuals within a human community. Finally, we also provide a simple method to estimate the unknown Nm transmission rate. In order to validate the estimation results, numerical simulations are conducted using real data of Niger.

Mortality estimation from carcass searches using the R-package carcass: a tutorial

Science.gov (United States)

Korner-Nievergelt, Fränzi; Behr, Oliver; Brinkmann, Robert; Etterson, Matthew A.; Huso, Manuela M. P.; Dalthorp, Daniel; Korner-Nievergelt, Pius; Roth, Tobias; Niermann, Ivo

2015-01-01

This article is a tutorial for the R-package carcass. It starts with a short overview of common methods used to estimate mortality based on carcass searches. Then, it guides step by step through a simple example. First, the proportion of animals that fall into the search area is estimated. Second, carcass persistence time is estimated based on experimental data. Third, searcher efficiency is estimated. Fourth, these three estimated parameters are combined to obtain the probability that an animal killed is found by an observer. Finally, this probability is used together with the observed number of carcasses found to obtain an estimate for the total number of killed animals together with a credible interval.

Incidence and reproduction numbers of pertussis: estimates from serological and social contact data in five European countries.

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Mirjam Kretzschmar

2010-06-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Despite large-scale vaccination programmes, pertussis has remained endemic in all European countries and has been on the rise in many countries in the last decade. One of the reasons that have been discussed for the failure of vaccination to eliminate the disease is continued circulation of the pathogen Bordetella pertussis by mostly asymptomatic and mild infections in adolescents and adults. To understand the impact of asymptomatic and undiagnosed infection on the transmission dynamics of pertussis we analysed serological data from five European countries in combination with information about social contact patterns from five of those countries to estimate incidence and reproduction numbers. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compared two different methods for estimating incidence from individual data on IgG pertussis toxin (PT titres. One method combines the cross-sectional surveys of titres with longitudinal information about the distribution of amplitude and decay rate of titres in a back-calculation approach. The second method uses age-dependent contact matrices and cross-sectional surveys of IgG PT titres to estimate a next generation matrix for pertussis transmission among age groups. The next generation approach allows for computation of basic reproduction numbers for five European countries. Our main findings are that the seroincidence of infections as estimated with the first method in all countries lies between 1% and 6% per annum with a peak in the adolescent age groups and a second lower peak in young adults. The incidence of infections as estimated by the second method lies slightly lower with ranges between 1% and 4% per annum. There is a remarkably good agreement of the results obtained with the two methods. The basic reproduction numbers are similar across countries at around 5.5. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination with currently used vaccines cannot prevent continued circulation and reinfection with pertussis, but has shifted the bulk

77 FR 74487 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Petition for Alien Fiance(e), Form Number I-129F...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-12-14

...-0001] Agency Information Collection Activities: Petition for Alien Fiance(e), Form Number I-129F... information collection. (2) Title of the Form/Collection: Petition for Alien Fiance(e). (3) Agency form number... petition for an alien fiance(e), spouse, or his/her children. (5) An estimate of the total number of...

Estimation of the additive and dominance variances in South African ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The objective of this study was to estimate dominance variance for number born alive (NBA), 21- day litter weight (LWT21) and interval between parities (FI) in South African Landrace pigs. A total of 26223 NBA, 21335 LWT21 and 16370 FI records were analysed. Bayesian analysis via Gibbs sampling was used to estimate ...

Luminosity function for planetary nebulae and the number of planetary nebulae in local group galaxies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacoby, G.H.

1980-01-01

Identifications of 19 and 34 faint planetary nebulae have been made in the central regions of the SMC and LMC, respectively, using on-line/off-line filter photography at [O III] and Hα. The previously known brighter planetary nebulae in these fields, eight in both the SMC and the LMC, were also identified. On the basis of the ratio of the numbers of faint to bright planetary nebulae in these fields and the numbers of bright planetary nebulae in the surrounding fields, the total numbers of planetary nebulae in the SMC and LMC are estimated to be 285 +- 78 and 996 +- 253, respectively. Corrections have been applied to account for omissions due to crowding confusion in previous surveys, spatial and detectability incompleteness, and obscuration by dust.Equatorial coordinates and finding charts are presented for all the identified planetary nebulae. The coordinates have uncertainties smaller than 0.''6 relative to nearby bright stars, thereby allowing acquisition of the planetary nebulae by bling offsetting.Monochromatic fluxes are derived photographically and used to determine the luminosity function for Magellanic Cloud planetary nebulae as faint as 6 mag below the brightest. The luminosity function is used to estimate the total numbers of planetary nebulae in eight Local Group galaxies in which only bright planetary nebulae have been identified. The dervied luminosity specific number of planetary nebulae per unit luminosity is nearly constant for all eight galaxies, having a value of 6.1 x 10 -7 planetary nebulae L -1 /sub sun/. The mass specific number, based on the three galaxies with well-determined masses, is 2.1 x 10 -7 planetary nebulae M -1 /sub sun/. With estimates for the luminosity and mass of our Galaxy, its total number of planetary nebulae is calculated to be 10,000 +- 4000, in support of the Cudworth distance scale

A new estimation of the total flavonoids in silkworm cocoon sericin layer through aglycone determination by hydrolysis-assisted extraction and HPLC-DAD analysis

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Jin-Ge Zhao

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Silk sericin and a few non-protein components isolated from the cocoon layer including two silk proteins in silkworm Bombyx mori has many bioactivities. The dietary sericin possess antinatural oxidation, anticancer, antihyperlipidemic, and antidiabetic activities. The non-protein components surrounding the sericin layer involve in wax, pigments mainly meaning flavonoids, sugars, and other impurities. However, very few investigations have reported the estimation of the total flavonoids derived from the cocoon layer. The flavonoids are commonly present in their glycosylated forms and mostly exist as quercetin glycosides in the sericin layers of silkworm cocoons. Objective: The aim of this study was to find a more accurate method to estimate the level of the total flavonoids in silkworm cocoons. Design: An efficient procedure of hydrolysis-assisted extraction (HAE was first established to estimate the level of the total flavonoids through the determination of their aglycones, quercetin, and kaempferol. Then, a comparison was made between traditional colorimetric method and our method. In addition, the antioxidant activities of hydrolysis-assisted extract sample were determined. Results: The average contents of quercetin and kaempferol were 1.98 and 0.42 mg/g in Daizo cocoon. Their recoveries were 99.56 and 99.17%. The total sum of quercetin and kaempferol was detected to be 2.40±0.07 mg/g by HAE-HPLC, while the total flavonoids (2.59±0.48 mg/g estimated by the traditional colorimetric method were only equivalent to 1.28±0.04 mg/g of quercetin. The HAE sample also exhibits that IC50 values of scavenging ability of diphenyl picryl hydrazinyl (DPPH radical and hydroxyl radical (HO· are 243.63 µg/mL and 4.89 mg/mL, respectively. Conclusions: These results show that the HAE-HPLC method is specificity of cocoon and far superior to the colorimetric method. Therefore, this study has profound significance for the comprehensive utilization

Total body height estimation using sacrum height in Anatolian Caucasians: multidetector computed tomography-based virtual anthropometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karakas, Hakki Muammer; Celbis, Osman; Harma, Ahmet; Alicioglu, Banu

2011-01-01

Estimation of total body height is a major step when a subject has to be identified from his/her skeletal structures. In the presence of decomposed skeletons and missing bones, estimation is usually based on regression equation for intact long bones. If these bones are fragmented or missing, alternative structures must be used. In this study, the value of sacrum height (SH) in total body height (TBH) estimation was investigated in a contemporary population of adult Anatolian Caucasians. Sixty-six men (41.6 ± 14.9 years) and 43 women (41.1 ± 14.2 years) were scanned with 64-row multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) to obtain high-resolution anthropometric data. SH of midsagittal sections was electronically measured. The technique and methodology were validated on a standard skeletal model. Sacrum height was 111.2 ± 12.6 mm (77-138 mm) in men and 104.7 ± 8.2 (89-125 mm) in women. The difference between the two sexes regarding SH was significant (p < 0.0001). SH did not significantly correlate with age in men, whereas the correlation was significant in women (p < 0.03). The correlation between SH and the stature was significant in men (r = 0.427, p < 0.0001) and was insignificant in women. For men the regression equation was [Stature = (0.306 x SH)+137.9] (r = 0.54, SEE = 56.9, p < 0.0001). Sacrum height is not susceptible to sex, or to age in men. In the presence of incomplete male skeletons, SH helps to determine the stature. This study is also one of the initial applications of MDCT in virtual anthropometric research. (orig.)

Total body height estimation using sacrum height in Anatolian Caucasians: multidetector computed tomography-based virtual anthropometry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karakas, Hakki Muammer [Inonu University Medical Faculty, Turgut Ozal Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Malatya (Turkey); Celbis, Osman [Inonu University Medical Faculty Turgut Ozal Medical Center, Department of Forensic Medicine, Malatya (Turkey); Harma, Ahmet [Inonu University Medical Faculty Turgut Ozal Medical Center, Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Malatya (Turkey); Alicioglu, Banu [Trakya University Medical Faculty, Department of Radiology, Edirne (Turkey); Trakya University Health Sciences Institute, Department of Anatomy, Edirne (Turkey)

2011-05-15

Estimation of total body height is a major step when a subject has to be identified from his/her skeletal structures. In the presence of decomposed skeletons and missing bones, estimation is usually based on regression equation for intact long bones. If these bones are fragmented or missing, alternative structures must be used. In this study, the value of sacrum height (SH) in total body height (TBH) estimation was investigated in a contemporary population of adult Anatolian Caucasians. Sixty-six men (41.6 {+-} 14.9 years) and 43 women (41.1 {+-} 14.2 years) were scanned with 64-row multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) to obtain high-resolution anthropometric data. SH of midsagittal sections was electronically measured. The technique and methodology were validated on a standard skeletal model. Sacrum height was 111.2 {+-} 12.6 mm (77-138 mm) in men and 104.7 {+-} 8.2 (89-125 mm) in women. The difference between the two sexes regarding SH was significant (p < 0.0001). SH did not significantly correlate with age in men, whereas the correlation was significant in women (p < 0.03). The correlation between SH and the stature was significant in men (r = 0.427, p < 0.0001) and was insignificant in women. For men the regression equation was [Stature = (0.306 x SH)+137.9] (r = 0.54, SEE = 56.9, p < 0.0001). Sacrum height is not susceptible to sex, or to age in men. In the presence of incomplete male skeletons, SH helps to determine the stature. This study is also one of the initial applications of MDCT in virtual anthropometric research. (orig.)

A regional mass balance model based on total ammoniacal nitrogen for estimating ammonia emissions from beef cattle in Alberta Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Chai, Lilong; Kröbel, Roland; Janzen, H. Henry; Beauchemin, Karen A.; McGinn, Sean M.; Bittman, Shabtai; Atia, Atta; Edeogu, Ike; MacDonald, Douglas; Dong, Ruilan

2014-08-01

Animal feeding operations are primary contributors of anthropogenic ammonia (NH3) emissions in North America and Europe. Mathematical modeling of NH3 volatilization from each stage of livestock manure management allows comprehensive quantitative estimates of emission sources and nutrient losses. A regionally-specific mass balance model based on total ammoniacal nitrogen (TAN) content in animal manure was developed for estimating NH3 emissions from beef farming operations in western Canada. Total N excretion in urine and feces was estimated from animal diet composition, feed dry matter intake and N utilization for beef cattle categories and production stages. Mineralization of organic N, immobilization of TAN, nitrification, and denitrification of N compounds in manure, were incorporated into the model to account for quantities of TAN at each stage of manure handling. Ammonia emission factors were specified for different animal housing (feedlots, barns), grazing, manure storage (including composting and stockpiling) and land spreading (tilled and untilled land), and were modified for temperature. The model computed NH3 emissions from all beef cattle sub-classes including cows, calves, breeding bulls, steers for slaughter, and heifers for slaughter and replacement. Estimated NH3 emissions were about 1.11 × 105 Mg NH3 in Alberta in 2006, with a mean of 18.5 kg animal-1 yr-1 (15.2 kg NH3-N animal-1 yr-1) which is 23.5% of the annual N intake of beef cattle (64.7 kg animal-1 yr-1). The percentage of N intake volatilized as NH3-N was 50% for steers and heifers for slaughter, and between 11 and 14% for all other categories. Steers and heifers for slaughter were the two largest contributors (3.5 × 104 and 3.9 × 104 Mg, respectively) at 31.5 and 32.7% of total NH3 emissions because most growing animals were finished in feedlots. Animal housing and grazing contributed roughly 63% of the total NH3 emissions (feedlots, barns and pastures contributed 54.4, 0.2 and 8.1% of

Modelo matemático para estimativa da área foliar total de bananeira 'Prata-anã' Esteem method of total leaf area of 'Prata anã' banana tree

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moises Zucoloto

2008-12-01

Full Text Available O objetivo deste trabalho foi desenvolver um modelo para estimar a área foliar total de bananeira, cultivar Prata-Anã, utilizando dimensões lineares da terceira folha, como o comprimento, a largura e o número total de folhas na emissão da inflorescência. As regressões lineares foram determinadas considerando-se a área foliar total de cada planta (AFT como variável dependente e o comprimento (C e a largura (L da terceira folha, o produto de CxL, o número total de folhas por planta (N e o produto de CxLxN como variáveis independentes. O modelo linear que melhor estimou a área foliar total (AFTe da bananeira 'Prata-Anã', ao nível de 5% de significância com R² de 0,89, foi a equação AFTe = 0,5187(CxLxN + 9603,5.The objective of this work was to estimate the total leaf area of banana, cultivar Prata Anã, according to the linear dimensions of the third leaf, such as the length and the width and the total number of leves in the inflorescence emission. The linear regressions were determined considering total leaf area of each plant (AFT such as dependent variable and the length (C and the width (L of the third leaf, the product of CxL, the total number of leaf per plant (N and the product of CxLxN as independent variables. The best linear model that estimated the total leaf area (AFTe of banana 'Prata Anã' at the level of 5% of significance with R² of 0,89 was the equation AFTe = 0.5187 (CxLxN + 9603.5.

The estimation genetically effective call numbers of panicle formation of seratus malam anda cisadane rice varieties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dwimahyani, I.; Suyono, G.

1988-01-01

An experiment has been carried out to estimate the genetically effective cell numbers on panicle formation of 2 rice varieties. Seeds of Seratus Malam were irradiated with gamma rays 60-Co with doses 0.2; 0.3; 0.4; 0.5 kGy, while Cisadane obtained doses 0.1; 0.2; 0.3; 0.4; and 0.5 kGy. Seeds then planted as M1 generation. Panicle form this M1 generation were observed and appeared as Albania and Xantha. Form this observation segregation ratio could be determined. It was showed that Cisadane was more sensitive than Seratus Malam variety. The genetically effective Cell Numbers value at low dose was 3 for both varieties. At high dose, the genetically effective cell numbers values was 2 for Seratus Malam and 1 for Cisadane varieties. Result indicate that high dose of irradiation could kill cell and therefore reduce effective cell numbers on panicle formation. (Authors). 6 refs, 3 tabs

Quantifying the number of pregnancies at risk of malaria in 2007: a demographic study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephanie Dellicour

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Comprehensive and contemporary estimates of the number of pregnancies at risk of malaria are not currently available, particularly for endemic areas outside of Africa. We derived global estimates of the number of women who became pregnant in 2007 in areas with Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax transmission.A recently published map of the global limits of P. falciparum transmission and an updated map of the limits of P. vivax transmission were combined with gridded population data and growth rates to estimate total populations at risk of malaria in 2007. Country-specific demographic data from the United Nations on age, sex, and total fertility rates were used to estimate the number of women of child-bearing age and the annual rate of live births. Subregional estimates of the number of induced abortions and country-specific stillbirths rates were obtained from recently published reviews. The number of miscarriages was estimated from the number of live births and corrected for induced abortion rates. The number of clinically recognised pregnancies at risk was then calculated as the sum of the number of live births, induced abortions, spontaneous miscarriages, and stillbirths among the population at risk in 2007. In 2007, 125.2 million pregnancies occurred in areas with P. falciparum and/or P. vivax transmission resulting in 82.6 million live births. This included 77.4, 30.3, 13.1, and 4.3 million pregnancies in the countries falling under the World Health Organization (WHO regional offices for South-East-Asia (SEARO and the Western-Pacific (WPRO combined, Africa (AFRO, Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean (EURO/EMRO, and the Americas (AMRO, respectively. Of 85.3 million pregnancies in areas with P. falciparum transmission, 54.7 million occurred in areas with stable transmission and 30.6 million in areas with unstable transmission (clinical incidence <1 per 10,000 population/year; 92.9 million occurred in areas with P. vivax transmission, 53

Comparing Children's Performance on and Preference for a Number-Line Estimation Task: Tablet versus Paper and Pencil

Science.gov (United States)

Piatt, Carley; Coret, Marian; Choi, Michael; Volden, Joanne; Bisanz, Jeffrey

2016-01-01

Tablet computers (tablets) are positioned to be powerful, innovative, effective, and motivating research and assessment tools. We addressed two questions critical for evaluating the appropriateness of using tablets to study number-line estimation, a skill associated with math achievement and argued to be central to numerical cognition. First, is…

Total arsenic in selected food samples from Argentina: Estimation of their contribution to inorganic arsenic dietary intake.

Science.gov (United States)

Sigrist, Mirna; Hilbe, Nandi; Brusa, Lucila; Campagnoli, Darío; Beldoménico, Horacio

2016-11-01

An optimized flow injection hydride generation atomic absorption spectroscopy (FI-HGAAS) method was used to determine total arsenic in selected food samples (beef, chicken, fish, milk, cheese, egg, rice, rice-based products, wheat flour, corn flour, oats, breakfast cereals, legumes and potatoes) and to estimate their contributions to inorganic arsenic dietary intake. The limit of detection (LOD) and limit of quantification (LOQ) values obtained were 6μgkg(-)(1) and 18μgkg(-)(1), respectively. The mean recovery range obtained for all food at a fortification level of 200μgkg(-)(1) was 85-110%. Accuracy was evaluated using dogfish liver certified reference material (DOLT-3 NRC) for trace metals. The highest total arsenic concentrations (in μgkg(-)(1)) were found in fish (152-439), rice (87-316) and rice-based products (52-201). The contribution to inorganic arsenic (i-As) intake was calculated from the mean i-As content of each food (calculated by applying conversion factors to total arsenic data) and the mean consumption per day. The primary contributors to inorganic arsenic intake were wheat flour, including its proportion in wheat flour-based products (breads, pasta and cookies), followed by rice; both foods account for close to 53% and 17% of the intake, respectively. The i-As dietary intake, estimated as 10.7μgday(-)(1), was significantly lower than that from drinking water in vast regions of Argentina. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

National and State Estimates of the Numbers of Adults and Children with Active Epilepsy - United States, 2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Zack, Matthew M; Kobau, Rosemarie

2017-08-11

Epilepsy, a brain disorder leading to recurring seizures, has garnered increased public health focus because persons with epilepsy experience pronounced and persistent health and socioeconomic disparities despite treatment advances, public awareness programs, and expanded rights for persons with disabilities (1,2). For almost all states, epilepsy prevalence estimates do not exist. CDC used national data sources including the 2015 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) for adults (aged ≥18 years), the 2011-2012 National Survey of Children's Health (NSCH), and the 2015 Current Population Survey data, describing 2014 income levels, to estimate prevalent cases of active epilepsy, overall and by state, to provide information for state public health planning. In 2015, 1.2% of the U.S. population (3.4 million persons: 3 million adults and 470,000 children) reported active epilepsy (self-reported doctor-diagnosed epilepsy and under treatment or with recent seizures within 12 months of interview) or current epilepsy (parent-reported doctor-diagnosed epilepsy and current epilepsy). Estimated numbers of persons with active epilepsy, after accounting for income and age differences by state, ranged from 5,900 in Wyoming to 427,700 in California. NHIS data from 2010-2015 indicate increases in the number of persons with active epilepsy, probably because of population growth. This study provides updated national and modeled state-specific numbers of active epilepsy cases. Public health practitioners, health care providers, policy makers, epilepsy researchers, and other epilepsy stakeholders, including family members and people with epilepsy, can use these findings to ensure that evidence-based programs meet the complex needs of adults and children with epilepsy and reduce the disparities resulting from it.

Alternative analysis: the prime numbers theory and an extension of the real numbers set

OpenAIRE

Sukhotin A.; Zvyagin M.

2016-01-01

Here we consider the theory of prime numbers at a new methodology. The theory of prime numbers is one of the most ancient mathematical branches. We found an estimate of the all prime numbers sum using the notions of infinite lager numbers and infinitely small numbers, farther we estimated the value of the maximal prime number. We proved that Hardy–Littlewood Hypothesis has the positive decision too. The infinite small numbers define a new methodology of the well–known function o(x) applicatio...

Cancer risk estimates from radiation therapy for heterotopic ossification prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mazonakis, Michalis; Berris, Theoharris; Damilakis, John [Department of Medical Physics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Crete, P.O. Box 2208, 71003 Iraklion, Crete (Greece); Lyraraki, Efrossyni [Department of Radiotherapy and Oncology, University Hospital of Iraklion, 71110 Iraklion, Crete (Greece)

2013-10-15

Purpose: Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent complication following total hip arthroplasty. This study was conducted to calculate the radiation dose to organs-at-risk and estimate the probability of cancer induction from radiotherapy for HO prophylaxis.Methods: Hip irradiation for HO with a 6 MV photon beam was simulated with the aid of a Monte Carlo model. A realistic humanoid phantom representing an average adult patient was implemented in Monte Carlo environment for dosimetric calculations. The average out-of-field radiation dose to stomach, liver, lung, prostate, bladder, thyroid, breast, uterus, and ovary was calculated. The organ-equivalent-dose to colon, that was partly included within the treatment field, was also determined. Organ dose calculations were carried out using three different field sizes. The dependence of organ doses upon the block insertion into primary beam for shielding colon and prosthesis was investigated. The lifetime attributable risk for cancer development was estimated using organ, age, and gender-specific risk coefficients.Results: For a typical target dose of 7 Gy, organ doses varied from 1.0 to 741.1 mGy by the field dimensions and organ location relative to the field edge. Blocked field irradiations resulted in a dose range of 1.4–146.3 mGy. The most probable detriment from open field treatment of male patients was colon cancer with a high risk of 564.3 × 10{sup −5} to 837.4 × 10{sup −5} depending upon the organ dose magnitude and the patient's age. The corresponding colon cancer risk for female patients was (372.2–541.0) × 10{sup −5}. The probability of bladder cancer development was more than 113.7 × 10{sup −5} and 110.3 × 10{sup −5} for males and females, respectively. The cancer risk range to other individual organs was reduced to (0.003–68.5) × 10{sup −5}.Conclusions: The risk for cancer induction from radiation therapy for HO prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty varies considerably by

Cancer risk estimates from radiation therapy for heterotopic ossification prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazonakis, Michalis; Berris, Theoharris; Damilakis, John; Lyraraki, Efrossyni

2013-01-01

Purpose: Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent complication following total hip arthroplasty. This study was conducted to calculate the radiation dose to organs-at-risk and estimate the probability of cancer induction from radiotherapy for HO prophylaxis.Methods: Hip irradiation for HO with a 6 MV photon beam was simulated with the aid of a Monte Carlo model. A realistic humanoid phantom representing an average adult patient was implemented in Monte Carlo environment for dosimetric calculations. The average out-of-field radiation dose to stomach, liver, lung, prostate, bladder, thyroid, breast, uterus, and ovary was calculated. The organ-equivalent-dose to colon, that was partly included within the treatment field, was also determined. Organ dose calculations were carried out using three different field sizes. The dependence of organ doses upon the block insertion into primary beam for shielding colon and prosthesis was investigated. The lifetime attributable risk for cancer development was estimated using organ, age, and gender-specific risk coefficients.Results: For a typical target dose of 7 Gy, organ doses varied from 1.0 to 741.1 mGy by the field dimensions and organ location relative to the field edge. Blocked field irradiations resulted in a dose range of 1.4–146.3 mGy. The most probable detriment from open field treatment of male patients was colon cancer with a high risk of 564.3 × 10 −5 to 837.4 × 10 −5 depending upon the organ dose magnitude and the patient's age. The corresponding colon cancer risk for female patients was (372.2–541.0) × 10 −5 . The probability of bladder cancer development was more than 113.7 × 10 −5 and 110.3 × 10 −5 for males and females, respectively. The cancer risk range to other individual organs was reduced to (0.003–68.5) × 10 −5 .Conclusions: The risk for cancer induction from radiation therapy for HO prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty varies considerably by the treatment parameters, organ

Number Line Estimation: The Use of Number Line Magnitude Estimation to Detect the Presence of Math Disability in Postsecondary Students

Science.gov (United States)

McDonald, Steven A.

2010-01-01

This study arose from an interest in the possible presence of mathematics disabilities among students enrolled in the developmental math program at a large university in the Mid-Atlantic region. Research in mathematics learning disabilities (MLD) has included a focus on the construct of working memory and number sense. A component of number sense…

Intraspecies variation in BMR does not affect estimates of early hominin total daily energy expenditure.

Science.gov (United States)

Froehle, Andrew W; Schoeninger, Margaret J

2006-12-01

We conducted a meta-analysis of 45 studies reporting basal metabolic rate (BMR) data for Homo sapiens and Pan troglodytes to determine the effects of sex, age, and latitude (a proxy for climate, in humans only). BMR was normalized for body size using fat-free mass in humans and body mass in chimpanzees. We found no effect of sex in either species and no age effect in chimpanzees. In humans, juveniles differed significantly from adults (ANCOVA: P BMR and body size, and used them to predict total daily energy expenditure (TEE) in four early hominin species. Our predictions concur with previous TEE estimates (i.e. Leonard and Robertson: Am J Phys Anthropol 102 (1997) 265-281), and support the conclusion that TEE increased greatly with H. erectus. Our results show that intraspecific variation in BMR does not affect TEE estimates for interspecific comparisons. Comparisons of more closely related groups such as humans and Neandertals, however, may benefit from consideration of this variation. 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Enumerating the Hidden Homeless: Strategies to Estimate the Homeless Gone Missing From a Point-in-Time Count

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agans Robert P.

2014-06-01

Full Text Available To receive federal homeless funds, communities are required to produce statistically reliable, unduplicated counts or estimates of homeless persons in sheltered and unsheltered locations during a one-night period (within the last ten days of January called a point-in-time (PIT count. In Los Angeles, a general population telephone survey was implemented to estimate the number of unsheltered homeless adults who are hidden from view during the PIT count. Two estimation approaches were investigated: i the number of homeless persons identified as living on private property, which employed a conventional household weight for the estimated total (Horvitz-Thompson approach; and ii the number of homeless persons identified as living on a neighbor’s property, which employed an additional adjustment derived from the size of the neighborhood network to estimate the total (multiplicity-based approach. This article compares the results of these two methods and discusses the implications therein.

Número mínimo de colheitas em pepino híbrido estimado por meio do coeficiente de repetibilidade Minimum harvest number in hybrid cucumber estimated by repeatability coefficient

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Ismael Inácio Cardoso

2006-01-01

Full Text Available O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar o número mínimo de colheitas em experimento com a cultura do pepino. Foram analisados dados de um experimento onde avaliaram-se 14 híbridos de pepino japonês, no delineamento em blocos ao acaso, com quatro repetições e cinco plantas por parcela, conduzidas sob ambiente protegido. Foram efetuadas 32 colheitas, três colheitas por semana, por um período de 72 dias e estimados os coeficientes de repetibilidade, com base na análise de componentes principais para os caracteres produção de frutos por planta, em massa e número, total e comercial. Os resultados permitiram concluir que menos de nove colheitas foram suficientes para analisar as diferenças de produtividade entre os diferentes híbridos, com 95% de certeza de serem eleitos os mais produtivos.The objective of this work was to estimate the minimum harvest number in experiments with cucumber. Data of an experiment comparing 14 japanese cucumber hybrids in the randomized block design, with four replications and five plants per plot, under protected cultivation, were analyzed. Thirty-two harvestings were made, three harvests a week, during 72 days to estimate repeatability coefficient based on analysis of the principal components for number and weight of total and commercial fruits per plant. Results allowed to conclude that less than nine harvestings were enough to verify yield differences among hybrids, with 95% of probability to identify the highest yielding ones.

A "total parameter estimation" method in the varification of distributed hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, M.; Qin, D.; Wang, H.

2011-12-01

Conventionally hydrological models are used for runoff or flood forecasting, hence the determination of model parameters are common estimated based on discharge measurements at the catchment outlets. With the advancement in hydrological sciences and computer technology, distributed hydrological models based on the physical mechanism such as SWAT, MIKESHE, and WEP, have gradually become the mainstream models in hydrology sciences. However, the assessments of distributed hydrological models and model parameter determination still rely on runoff and occasionally, groundwater level measurements. It is essential in many countries, including China, to understand the local and regional water cycle: not only do we need to simulate the runoff generation process and for flood forecasting in wet areas, we also need to grasp the water cycle pathways and consumption process of transformation in arid and semi-arid regions for the conservation and integrated water resources management. As distributed hydrological model can simulate physical processes within a catchment, we can get a more realistic representation of the actual water cycle within the simulation model. Runoff is the combined result of various hydrological processes, using runoff for parameter estimation alone is inherits problematic and difficult to assess the accuracy. In particular, in the arid areas, such as the Haihe River Basin in China, runoff accounted for only 17% of the rainfall, and very concentrated during the rainy season from June to August each year. During other months, many of the perennial rivers within the river basin dry up. Thus using single runoff simulation does not fully utilize the distributed hydrological model in arid and semi-arid regions. This paper proposed a "total parameter estimation" method to verify the distributed hydrological models within various water cycle processes, including runoff, evapotranspiration, groundwater, and soil water; and apply it to the Haihe river basin in

Estimation of surface area and pore volume of activated carbons by methylene blue and iodine numbers

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Cleiton A. Nunes

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Data of methylene blue number and iodine number of activated carbons samples were calibrated against the respective surface area, micropore volume and total pore volume using multiple regression. The models obtained from the calibrations were used in predicting these physical properties of a test group of activated carbon samples produced from several raw materials. In all cases, the predicted values were in good agreement with the expected values. The method allows extracting more information from the methylene blue and iodine adsorption studies than normally obtained with this type of material.

Non-destructive estimation of Oecophylla smaragdina colony biomass

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinkalski, Christian Alexander Stidsen; Offenberg, Joachim; Jensen, Karl-Martin Vagn

in mango plantations in Darwin, Australia. The total nest volume of O. smaragdina colonies in a tree was related to the activity of the ants (R2=0.85), estimated as the density of ant trails in the tree. Subsequently, the relation between nest volume and ant biomass (R2=0.70) was added to enable...... a prediction of ant biomass directly from ant activity. With this combined regression the ant biomass in a tree equaled 244.5 g fresh mass*ant activity. Similarly, the number of workers in trees was estimated using the relationship between nest volume and worker numbers (R2=0.84). Based on the model, five O...

Optimization of Photospheric Electric Field Estimates for Accurate Retrieval of Total Magnetic Energy Injection

Science.gov (United States)

Lumme, E.; Pomoell, J.; Kilpua, E. K. J.

2017-12-01

Estimates of the photospheric magnetic, electric, and plasma velocity fields are essential for studying the dynamics of the solar atmosphere, for example through the derivative quantities of Poynting and relative helicity flux and using the fields to obtain the lower boundary condition for data-driven coronal simulations. In this paper we study the performance of a data processing and electric field inversion approach that requires only high-resolution and high-cadence line-of-sight or vector magnetograms, which we obtain from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The approach does not require any photospheric velocity estimates, and the lacking velocity information is compensated for using ad hoc assumptions. We show that the free parameters of these assumptions can be optimized to reproduce the time evolution of the total magnetic energy injection through the photosphere in NOAA AR 11158, when compared to recent state-of-the-art estimates for this active region. However, we find that the relative magnetic helicity injection is reproduced poorly, reaching at best a modest underestimation. We also discuss the effect of some of the data processing details on the results, including the masking of the noise-dominated pixels and the tracking method of the active region, neither of which has received much attention in the literature so far. In most cases the effect of these details is small, but when the optimization of the free parameters of the ad hoc assumptions is considered, a consistent use of the noise mask is required. The results found in this paper imply that the data processing and electric field inversion approach that uses only the photospheric magnetic field information offers a flexible and straightforward way to obtain photospheric magnetic and electric field estimates suitable for practical applications such as coronal modeling studies.

Accuracy of different sensors for the estimation of pollutant concentrations (total suspended solids, total and dissolved chemical oxygen demand) in wastewater and stormwater.

Science.gov (United States)

Lepot, Mathieu; Aubin, Jean-Baptiste; Bertrand-Krajewski, Jean-Luc

2013-01-01

Many field investigations have used continuous sensors (turbidimeters and/or ultraviolet (UV)-visible spectrophotometers) to estimate with a short time step pollutant concentrations in sewer systems. Few, if any, publications compare the performance of various sensors for the same set of samples. Different surrogate sensors (turbidity sensors, UV-visible spectrophotometer, pH meter, conductivity meter and microwave sensor) were tested to link concentrations of total suspended solids (TSS), total and dissolved chemical oxygen demand (COD), and sensors' outputs. In the combined sewer at the inlet of a wastewater treatment plant, 94 samples were collected during dry weather, 44 samples were collected during wet weather, and 165 samples were collected under both dry and wet weather conditions. From these samples, triplicate standard laboratory analyses were performed and corresponding sensors outputs were recorded. Two outlier detection methods were developed, based, respectively, on the Mahalanobis and Euclidean distances. Several hundred regression models were tested, and the best ones (according to the root mean square error criterion) are presented in order of decreasing performance. No sensor appears as the best one for all three investigated pollutants.

The Total Deviation Index estimated by Tolerance Intervals to evaluate the concordance of measurement devices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ascaso Carlos

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In an agreement assay, it is of interest to evaluate the degree of agreement between the different methods (devices, instruments or observers used to measure the same characteristic. We propose in this study a technical simplification for inference about the total deviation index (TDI estimate to assess agreement between two devices of normally-distributed measurements and describe its utility to evaluate inter- and intra-rater agreement if more than one reading per subject is available for each device. Methods We propose to estimate the TDI by constructing a probability interval of the difference in paired measurements between devices, and thereafter, we derive a tolerance interval (TI procedure as a natural way to make inferences about probability limit estimates. We also describe how the proposed method can be used to compute bounds of the coverage probability. Results The approach is illustrated in a real case example where the agreement between two instruments, a handle mercury sphygmomanometer device and an OMRON 711 automatic device, is assessed in a sample of 384 subjects where measures of systolic blood pressure were taken twice by each device. A simulation study procedure is implemented to evaluate and compare the accuracy of the approach to two already established methods, showing that the TI approximation produces accurate empirical confidence levels which are reasonably close to the nominal confidence level. Conclusions The method proposed is straightforward since the TDI estimate is derived directly from a probability interval of a normally-distributed variable in its original scale, without further transformations. Thereafter, a natural way of making inferences about this estimate is to derive the appropriate TI. Constructions of TI based on normal populations are implemented in most standard statistical packages, thus making it simpler for any practitioner to implement our proposal to assess agreement.

Improved estimation of the noncentrality parameter distribution from a large number of t-statistics, with applications to false discovery rate estimation in microarray data analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Qu, Long; Nettleton, Dan; Dekkers, Jack C M

2012-12-01

Given a large number of t-statistics, we consider the problem of approximating the distribution of noncentrality parameters (NCPs) by a continuous density. This problem is closely related to the control of false discovery rates (FDR) in massive hypothesis testing applications, e.g., microarray gene expression analysis. Our methodology is similar to, but improves upon, the existing approach by Ruppert, Nettleton, and Hwang (2007, Biometrics, 63, 483-495). We provide parametric, nonparametric, and semiparametric estimators for the distribution of NCPs, as well as estimates of the FDR and local FDR. In the parametric situation, we assume that the NCPs follow a distribution that leads to an analytically available marginal distribution for the test statistics. In the nonparametric situation, we use convex combinations of basis density functions to estimate the density of the NCPs. A sequential quadratic programming procedure is developed to maximize the penalized likelihood. The smoothing parameter is selected with the approximate network information criterion. A semiparametric estimator is also developed to combine both parametric and nonparametric fits. Simulations show that, under a variety of situations, our density estimates are closer to the underlying truth and our FDR estimates are improved compared with alternative methods. Data-based simulations and the analyses of two microarray datasets are used to evaluate the performance in realistic situations. © 2012, The International Biometric Society.

TOTAL NUMBER, DISTRIBUTION, AND PHENOTYPE OF CELLS EXPRESSING CHONDROITIN SULPHATE PROTEOGLYCANS IN THE NORMAL HUMAN AMYGDALA

Science.gov (United States)

Pantazopoulos, Harry; Murray, Elisabeth A.; Berretta, Sabina

2009-01-01

Chondroitin sulphate proteoglycans (CSPGs) are a key structural component of the brain extracellular matrix. They are involved in critical neurodevelopmental functions and are one of the main components of pericellular aggregates known as perineuronal nets. As a step toward investigating their functional and pathophysiological roles in the human amygdala, we assessed the pattern of CSPG expression in the normal human amygdala using wisteria floribunda agglutinin (WFA) lectin-histochemistry. Total numbers of WFA-labeled elements were measured in the lateral (LN), basal (BN), accessory basal (ABN) and cortical (CO) nuclei of the amygdala from 15 normal adult human subjects. For interspecies qualitative comparison, we also investigated the pattern of WFA labeling in the amygdala of naïve rats (n=32) and rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta; n=6). In human amygdala, WFA lectin-histochemistry resulted in labeling of perineuronal nets and cells with clear glial morphology, while neurons did not show WFA-labeling. Total numbers of WFA-labeled glial cells showed high interindividual variability. These cells aggregated in clusters with a consistent between-subjects spatial distribution. In a subset of human subjects (n=5), dual color fluorescence using an antibody raised against glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) and WFA showed that the majority (93.7%) of WFA-labeled glial cells correspond to astrocytes. In rat and monkey amygdala, WFA histochemistry labeled perineuronal nets, but not glial cells. These results suggest that astrocytes are the main cell type expressing CSPGs in the adult human amygdala. Their highly segregated distribution pattern suggests that these cells serve specialized functions within human amygdalar nuclei. PMID:18374308

Global thunderstorm activity estimation based on number of transients in ELF-band

Science.gov (United States)

Ondraskova, Adriena; Sevcik, Sebastian

2017-04-01

Schumann resonances (SR) are resonant electromagnetic oscillations in extremely low frequency band (ELF, 3 Hz - 3 kHz), which arise in the Earth-ionosphere cavity due to lightning activity in planetary range. The time records in the ELF-band consist of background signals and ELF transients/Q-bursts superimposed on the background exceeding it by a factor of 5 - 10. The former are produced by the common worldwide thunderstorm activity (100 - 150 events per second), the latter origin from individual intense distant lightning discharges (100 - 120 powerful strokes per hour). A Q-burst is produced by a combination of direct and antipodal pulses and the decisive factor for its shape follows from the source-to-observer distance. Diurnal/seasonal variations of global thunderstorm activity can be deduced from spectral amplitudes of SR modes. Here we focus on diurnal/seasonal variations of the number of ELF-transients assuming that it is another way of lightning activity estimation. To search for transients, our own code was applied to the SR vertical electric component measured in October 2004 - October 2008 at the Astronomical and Geophysical Observatory of FMPI CU, Slovakia. Criteria for the identification of the burst are chosen on the basis of the transient amplitudes and their morphological features. Monthly mean daily variations in number of transients showed that African focus dominates at 14 - 16 h UT and it is more active in comparison with Asian source, which dominates at 5 - 8 h UT in dependence on winter or summer month. American source had surprisingly slight response. Meteorological observations in South America aiming to determine lightning hotspots on the Earth indicate that flash rate in this region is greatest during nocturnal 0 h - 3 h local standard time. This fact may be interpreted that Asian and South American sources contribute together in the same UT. Cumulative spectral amplitude of the first three SR modes compared with number of ELF-transients in

Monitoring of German fertility: Estimation of monthly and yearly total fertility rates on the basis of preliminary monthly data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

G. Doblhammer (Gabriele); Milewski, N. (Nadja); F. Peters (Frederick)

2010-01-01

textabstractThis paper introduces a set of methods for estimating fertility indicators in the absence of recent and short-term birth statistics. For Germany, we propose a set of straightforward methods that allow for the computation of monthly and yearly total fertility rates (mTFR) on the basis of

Concentration and flux of total and dissolved phosphorus, total nitrogen, chloride, and total suspended solids for monitored tributaries of Lake Champlain, 1990-2012

Science.gov (United States)

Medalie, Laura

2014-01-01

Annual and daily concentrations and fluxes of total and dissolved phosphorus, total nitrogen, chloride, and total suspended solids were estimated for 18 monitored tributaries to Lake Champlain by using the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Seasons regression model. Estimates were made for 21 or 23 years, depending on data availability, for the purpose of providing timely and accessible summary reports as stipulated in the 2010 update to the Lake Champlain “Opportunities for Action” management plan. Estimates of concentration and flux were provided for each tributary based on (1) observed daily discharges and (2) a flow-normalizing procedure, which removed the random fluctuations of climate-related variability. The flux bias statistic, an indicator of the ability of the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season regression models to provide accurate representations of flux, showed acceptable bias (less than ±10 percent) for 68 out of 72 models for total and dissolved phosphorus, total nitrogen, and chloride. Six out of 18 models for total suspended solids had moderate bias (between 10 and 30 percent), an expected result given the frequently nonlinear relation between total suspended solids and discharge. One model for total suspended solids with a very high bias was influenced by a single extreme value; however, removal of that value, although reducing the bias substantially, had little effect on annual fluxes.

Delay estimation on a railway-line with smart use of micro-simulation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cerreto, Fabrizio; Harrod, Steven; Nielsen, Otto Anker

2017-01-01

This paper formulates a delay propagation model that estimates total railway line delay as a polynomial function of a single primary delay. The estimate is derived from a finite series of delays over a horizon that spans two dimensions: the length of the railway line and the number of trains in t...

A correction factor for estimating statewide agricultural injuries from ambulance reports.

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, Erika E; Earle-Richardson, Giulia; Krupa, Nicole; Jenkins, Paul

2011-10-01

Agriculture ranks as one of the most hazardous industries in the nation. Agricultural injury surveillance is critical to identifying and reducing major injury hazards. Currently, there is no comprehensive system of identifying and characterizing fatal and serious non-fatal agricultural injuries. Researchers sought to calculate a multiplier for estimating the number of agricultural injury cases based on the number of times the farm box indicator was checked on the ambulance report. Farm injuries from 2007 that used ambulance transport were ascertained for 10 New York counties using two methods: (1) ambulance reports including hand-entered free text; and (2) community surveillance. The resulting multiplier that was developed from contrasting these two methods was then applied to the statewide Emergency Medical Services database to estimate the total number of agricultural injuries for New York state. There were 25,735 unique ambulance runs due to injuries in the 10 counties in 2007. Among these, the farm box was checked a total of 90 times. Of these 90, 63 (70%) were determined to be agricultural. Among injury runs where the farm box was not checked, an additional 59 cases were identified from the free text. Among these 122 cases (63 + 59), four were duplicates. Twenty-four additional unique cases were identified from the community surveillance for a total of 142. This yielded a multiplier of 142/90 = 1.578 for estimating all agricultural injuries from the farm box indicator. Sensitivity and specificity of the ambulance report method were 53.4% and 99.9%, respectively. This method provides a cost-effective way to estimate the total number of agricultural injuries for the state. However, it would not eliminate the more labor intensive methods that are required to identify of the actual individual case records. Incorporating an independent source of case ascertainment (community surveillance) increased the multiplier by 17%. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights

Estimating the number of competing terminals without a state variation detector in wireless LAN

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Jaechan; Kim, Taejin; Hong, Daehyoung

2013-12-01

Estimating the number of competing terminals n (who wish to transmit a packet at the same time) in the IEEE 802.11 system is important for system throughput performance because optimal back-off window size needs to be selected based on n. Therefore, as a new approach for estimating n, we propose H infinity filter that does not need a state variation detector as opposed to the cases of previously proposed approaches. The state variation detector's flaw is incurring tracking latency in addition to the side effect of increased computational cost. All previously proposed approaches demand the employment of the state variation detector to detect the variation of n in the IEEE 802.11 system. By employing H infinity filter, we show improved throughput performance of the system compared to that of previously proposed approaches (e.g., the Kalman filter and particle filter) based on the improved performance in tracking n. In this paper, we justify the superiority of the proposed approach in the terms of tracking performance, throughput performance, and computational complexity.

Joint estimation of vertical total electron content (VTEC) and satellite differential code biases (SDCBs) using low-cost receivers

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Baocheng; Teunissen, Peter J. G.; Yuan, Yunbin; Zhang, Hongxing; Li, Min

2018-04-01

Vertical total electron content (VTEC) parameters estimated using global navigation satellite system (GNSS) data are of great interest for ionosphere sensing. Satellite differential code biases (SDCBs) account for one source of error which, if left uncorrected, can deteriorate performance of positioning, timing and other applications. The customary approach to estimate VTEC along with SDCBs from dual-frequency GNSS data, hereinafter referred to as DF approach, consists of two sequential steps. The first step seeks to retrieve ionospheric observables through the carrier-to-code leveling technique. This observable, related to the slant total electron content (STEC) along the satellite-receiver line-of-sight, is biased also by the SDCBs and the receiver differential code biases (RDCBs). By means of thin-layer ionospheric model, in the second step one is able to isolate the VTEC, the SDCBs and the RDCBs from the ionospheric observables. In this work, we present a single-frequency (SF) approach, enabling the joint estimation of VTEC and SDCBs using low-cost receivers; this approach is also based on two steps and it differs from the DF approach only in the first step, where we turn to the precise point positioning technique to retrieve from the single-frequency GNSS data the ionospheric observables, interpreted as the combination of the STEC, the SDCBs and the biased receiver clocks at the pivot epoch. Our numerical analyses clarify how SF approach performs when being applied to GPS L1 data collected by a single receiver under both calm and disturbed ionospheric conditions. The daily time series of zenith VTEC estimates has an accuracy ranging from a few tenths of a TEC unit (TECU) to approximately 2 TECU. For 73-96% of GPS satellites in view, the daily estimates of SDCBs do not deviate, in absolute value, more than 1 ns from their ground truth values published by the Centre for Orbit Determination in Europe.

The influence of number line estimation precision and numeracy on risky financial decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Inkyung; Cho, Soohyun

2018-01-10

This study examined whether different aspects of mathematical proficiency influence one's ability to make adaptive financial decisions. "Numeracy" refers to the ability to process numerical and probabilistic information and is commonly reported as an important factor which contributes to financial decision-making ability. The precision of mental number representation (MNR), measured with the number line estimation (NLE) task has been reported to be another critical factor. This study aimed to examine the contribution of these mathematical proficiencies while controlling for the influence of fluid intelligence, math anxiety and personality factors. In our decision-making task, participants chose between two options offering probabilistic monetary gain or loss. Sensitivity to expected value was measured as an index for the ability to discriminate between optimal versus suboptimal options. Partial correlation and hierarchical regression analyses revealed that NLE precision better explained EV sensitivity compared to numeracy, after controlling for all covariates. These results suggest that individuals with more precise MNR are capable of making more rational financial decisions. We also propose that the measurement of "numeracy," which is commonly used interchangeably with general mathematical proficiency, should include more diverse aspects of mathematical cognition including basic understanding of number magnitude. © 2018 International Union of Psychological Science.

The precision of mapping between number words and the approximate number system predicts children's formal math abilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Libertus, Melissa E; Odic, Darko; Feigenson, Lisa; Halberda, Justin

2016-10-01

Children can represent number in at least two ways: by using their non-verbal, intuitive approximate number system (ANS) and by using words and symbols to count and represent numbers exactly. Furthermore, by the time they are 5years old, children can map between the ANS and number words, as evidenced by their ability to verbally estimate numbers of items without counting. How does the quality of the mapping between approximate and exact numbers relate to children's math abilities? The role of the ANS-number word mapping in math competence remains controversial for at least two reasons. First, previous work has not examined the relation between verbal estimation and distinct subtypes of math abilities. Second, previous work has not addressed how distinct components of verbal estimation-mapping accuracy and variability-might each relate to math performance. Here, we addressed these gaps by measuring individual differences in ANS precision, verbal number estimation, and formal and informal math abilities in 5- to 7-year-old children. We found that verbal estimation variability, but not estimation accuracy, predicted formal math abilities, even when controlling for age, expressive vocabulary, and ANS precision, and that it mediated the link between ANS precision and overall math ability. These findings suggest that variability in the ANS-number word mapping may be especially important for formal math abilities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

TumorBoost: Normalization of allele-specific tumor copy numbers from a single pair of tumor-normal genotyping microarrays

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neuvial Pierre

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background High-throughput genotyping microarrays assess both total DNA copy number and allelic composition, which makes them a tool of choice for copy number studies in cancer, including total copy number and loss of heterozygosity (LOH analyses. Even after state of the art preprocessing methods, allelic signal estimates from genotyping arrays still suffer from systematic effects that make them difficult to use effectively for such downstream analyses. Results We propose a method, TumorBoost, for normalizing allelic estimates of one tumor sample based on estimates from a single matched normal. The method applies to any paired tumor-normal estimates from any microarray-based technology, combined with any preprocessing method. We demonstrate that it increases the signal-to-noise ratio of allelic signals, making it significantly easier to detect allelic imbalances. Conclusions TumorBoost increases the power to detect somatic copy-number events (including copy-neutral LOH in the tumor from allelic signals of Affymetrix or Illumina origin. We also conclude that high-precision allelic estimates can be obtained from a single pair of tumor-normal hybridizations, if TumorBoost is combined with single-array preprocessing methods such as (allele-specific CRMA v2 for Affymetrix or BeadStudio's (proprietary XY-normalization method for Illumina. A bounded-memory implementation is available in the open-source and cross-platform R package aroma.cn, which is part of the Aroma Project (http://www.aroma-project.org/.

Determining the Number of Factors to Retain in EFA: Using the SPSS R-Menu v2.0 to Make More Judicious Estimations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew Gordon Ray Courtney

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Exploratory factor analysis (EFA is a common technique utilized in the development of assessment instruments. The key question when performing this procedure is how to best estimate the number of factors to retain. This is especially important as under- or over-extraction may lead to erroneous conclusions. Although recent advancements have been made to answer the number of factors question, popular statistical packages do not come standard with these modern techniques. This paper details how to program IBM SPSS Statistics software (SPSS to conveniently perform five modern techniques designed to estimate the number of factors to retain. By utilizing the five empirically-supported techniques illustrated in this article, researchers will be able to more judiciously model data.

Influence of number of deliveries and total breast-feeding time on bone mineral density in premenopausal and young postmenopausal women.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsvetov, Gloria; Levy, Sigal; Benbassat, Carlos; Shraga-Slutzky, Ilana; Hirsch, Dania

2014-03-01

Pregnancy and lactation have been associated with decline in bone mineral density (BMD). It is not clear if there is a full recovery of BMD to baseline. This study sought to determine if pregnancy or breast-feeding or both have a cumulative effect on BMD in premenopausal and early postmenopausal women. We performed single-center cohort analysis. Five hundred women aged 35-55 years underwent routine BMD screening from February to July 2011 at a tertiary medical center. Patients were questioned about number of total full-term deliveries and duration of breast-feeding and completed a background questionnaire on menarche and menopause, smoking, dairy product consumption, and weekly physical exercise. Weight and height were measured. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry was used to measure spinal, dual femoral neck, and total hip BMD. Associations between background characteristics and BMD values were analyzed. Sixty percent of the women were premenopausal. Mean number of deliveries was 2.5 and mean duration of breast-feeding was 9.12 months. On univariate analysis, BMD values were negatively correlated with patient age (p=0.006) and number of births (p=0.013), and positively correlated with body mass index (posteoporosis later in life. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating the Prevalence of Toxic Waste Sites in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Dowling, Russell; Caravanos, Jack; Grigsby, Patrick; Rivera, Anthony; Ericson, Bret; Amoyaw-Osei, Yaw; Akuffo, Bennett; Fuller, Richard

Exposure to heavy metals at contaminated industrial and mining sites, known also as hot spots, is a significant source of toxic exposure and adverse health outcomes in countries around the world. The Toxic Sites Identification Program (TSIP) developed by Pure Earth, a New York-based nongovernmental organization, is the only systematic effort to catalogue contaminated sites globally. To date, TSIP has identified and catalogued 3282 sites in low- and middle-income countries. The TSIP methodology is not designed to survey all contaminated sites in a country. Rather sites are prioritized based on their perceived impact on human health, and only a limited number of the most highly hazardous sites are surveyed. The total number of contaminated sites globally and the fraction of contaminated sites captured by TSIP is not known. To determine the TSIP site capture rate, the fraction of contaminated sites in a country catalogued by TSIP. Ghana was selected for this analysis because it is a rapidly industrializing lower middle income country with a heterogeneous industrial base, a highly urban population (51%), and good public records systems. To develop an estimate of the fraction of sites in Ghana captured by TSIP, assessors targeted randomly selected geographic quadrats for comprehensive assessment using area and population statistics from the Ghana Statistical Service. Investigators physically walked all accessible streets in each quadrat to visually identify all sites. Visual identification was supplemented by field-based confirmation with portable x-ray fluorescence instruments to test soils for metals. To extrapolate from survey findings to develop a range of estimates for the entire country, the investigators used 2 methodologies: a "bottom-up" approach that first estimated the number of waste sites in each region and then summed these regional subtotals to develop a total national estimate; and a "top-down" method that estimated the total number of sites in Ghana and

Estimating fuel octane numbers from homogeneous gas-phase ignition delay times

KAUST Repository

Naser, Nimal

2017-11-05

Fuel octane numbers are directly related to the autoignition properties of fuel/air mixtures in spark ignition (SI) engines. This work presents a methodology to estimate the research and the motor octane numbers (RON and MON) from homogeneous gas-phase ignition delay time (IDT) data calculated at various pressures and temperatures. The hypothesis under investigation is that at specific conditions of pressure and temperature (i.e., RON-like and MON-like conditions), fuels with IDT identical to that of a primary reference fuel (PRF) have the same octane rating. To test this hypothesis, IDTs with a detailed gasoline surrogate chemical kinetic model have been calculated at various temperatures and pressures. From this dataset, temperatures that best represent RON and MON have been correlated at a specified pressure. Correlations for pressures in the range of 10–50 bar were obtained. The proposed correlations were validated with toluene reference fuels (TRF), toluene primary reference fuels (TPRF), ethanol reference fuels (ERF), PRFs and TPRFs with ethanol, and multi-component gasoline surrogate mixtures. The predicted RON and MON showed satisfactory accuracy against measurements obtained by the standard ASTM methods and blending rules, demonstrating that the present methodology can be a viable tool for a first approximation. The correlations were also validated against an extensive set of experimental IDT data obtained from literature with a high degree of accuracy in RON/MON prediction. Conditions in homogeneous reactors such as shock tubes and rapid compression machines that are relevant to modern SI engines were also identified. Uncertainty analysis of the proposed correlations with linear error propagation theory is also presented.

Estimating fuel octane numbers from homogeneous gas-phase ignition delay times

KAUST Repository

Naser, Nimal; Sarathy, Mani; Chung, Suk-Ho

2017-01-01

Fuel octane numbers are directly related to the autoignition properties of fuel/air mixtures in spark ignition (SI) engines. This work presents a methodology to estimate the research and the motor octane numbers (RON and MON) from homogeneous gas-phase ignition delay time (IDT) data calculated at various pressures and temperatures. The hypothesis under investigation is that at specific conditions of pressure and temperature (i.e., RON-like and MON-like conditions), fuels with IDT identical to that of a primary reference fuel (PRF) have the same octane rating. To test this hypothesis, IDTs with a detailed gasoline surrogate chemical kinetic model have been calculated at various temperatures and pressures. From this dataset, temperatures that best represent RON and MON have been correlated at a specified pressure. Correlations for pressures in the range of 10–50 bar were obtained. The proposed correlations were validated with toluene reference fuels (TRF), toluene primary reference fuels (TPRF), ethanol reference fuels (ERF), PRFs and TPRFs with ethanol, and multi-component gasoline surrogate mixtures. The predicted RON and MON showed satisfactory accuracy against measurements obtained by the standard ASTM methods and blending rules, demonstrating that the present methodology can be a viable tool for a first approximation. The correlations were also validated against an extensive set of experimental IDT data obtained from literature with a high degree of accuracy in RON/MON prediction. Conditions in homogeneous reactors such as shock tubes and rapid compression machines that are relevant to modern SI engines were also identified. Uncertainty analysis of the proposed correlations with linear error propagation theory is also presented.

THE APPLICATION OF STEREOLOGY METHOD FOR ESTIMATING THE NUMBER OF 3D BaTiO3 – CERAMIC GRAINS CONTACT SURFACES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vojislav V Mitić

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Methods of stereological study are of great importance for structural research of electronic ceramic materials including BaTiO3-ceramic materials. The broad application of ceramics, based on barium-titanate, in advanced electronics nowadays demands a constant research of its structure, that through the correlation structureproperties, a fundamental in the basic materials properties prognosis triad (technology-structure-properties, leads to further prognosis and properties design of these ceramics. Microstructure properties of BaTiO3- ceramic material, expressed in grains' boundary contact, are of basic importance for electric properties of this material, particularly the capacity. In this paper, a significant step towards establishing control under capacitive properties of BaTiO3-ceramics is being done by estimating the number of grains contact surfaces. Defining an efficient stereology method for estimating the number of BaTiO3-ceramic grains contact surfaces, we have started from a mathematical model of mutual grains distribution in the prescribed volume of BaTiO3-ceramic sample. Since the real microstructure morphology of BaTiO3-ceramics is in some way disordered, spherical shaped grains, using computer-modelling methods, are approximated by polyhedra with a great number of small convex polygons. By dividing the volume of BaTiO3-ceramic sample with the definite number of parallel planes, according to a given pace, into the intersection plane a certain number of grains contact surfaces are identified. According to quantitative estimation of 2D stereological parameters the modelled 3D internal microstructure is obtained. Experiments were made by using the scanning electronic microscopy (SEM method with the ceramic samples prepared under pressing pressures up to 150 MPa and sintering temperature up to 1370°C while the obtained microphotographs were used as a base of confirming the validity of presented stereology method. This paper, by applying

Estimation of the radiation-induced DNA double-strand breaks number by considering cell cycle and absorbed dose per cell nucleus.

Science.gov (United States)

Mori, Ryosuke; Matsuya, Yusuke; Yoshii, Yuji; Date, Hiroyuki

2018-05-01

DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) are thought to be the main cause of cell death after irradiation. In this study, we estimated the probability distribution of the number of DSBs per cell nucleus by considering the DNA amount in a cell nucleus (which depends on the cell cycle) and the statistical variation in the energy imparted to the cell nucleus by X-ray irradiation. The probability estimation of DSB induction was made following these procedures: (i) making use of the Chinese Hamster Ovary (CHO)-K1 cell line as the target example, the amounts of DNA per nucleus in the logarithmic and the plateau phases of the growth curve were measured by flow cytometry with propidium iodide (PI) dyeing; (ii) the probability distribution of the DSB number per cell nucleus for each phase after irradiation with 1.0 Gy of 200 kVp X-rays was measured by means of γ-H2AX immunofluorescent staining; (iii) the distribution of the cell-specific energy deposition via secondary electrons produced by the incident X-rays was calculated by WLTrack (in-house Monte Carlo code); (iv) according to a mathematical model for estimating the DSB number per nucleus, we deduced the induction probability density of DSBs based on the measured DNA amount (depending on the cell cycle) and the calculated dose per nucleus. The model exhibited DSB induction probabilities in good agreement with the experimental results for the two phases, suggesting that the DNA amount (depending on the cell cycle) and the statistical variation in the local energy deposition are essential for estimating the DSB induction probability after X-ray exposure.

Estimating Global Seafloor Total Organic Carbon Using a Machine Learning Technique and Its Relevance to Methane Hydrates

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, T. R.; Wood, W. T.; Dale, J.

2017-12-01

Empirical and theoretical models of sub-seafloor organic matter transformation, degradation and methanogenesis require estimates of initial seafloor total organic carbon (TOC). This subsurface methane, under the appropriate geophysical and geochemical conditions may manifest as methane hydrate deposits. Despite the importance of seafloor TOC, actual observations of TOC in the world's oceans are sparse and large regions of the seafloor yet remain unmeasured. To provide an estimate in areas where observations are limited or non-existent, we have implemented interpolation techniques that rely on existing data sets. Recent geospatial analyses have provided accurate accounts of global geophysical and geochemical properties (e.g. crustal heat flow, seafloor biomass, porosity) through machine learning interpolation techniques. These techniques find correlations between the desired quantity (in this case TOC) and other quantities (predictors, e.g. bathymetry, distance from coast, etc.) that are more widely known. Predictions (with uncertainties) of seafloor TOC in regions lacking direct observations are made based on the correlations. Global distribution of seafloor TOC at 1 x 1 arc-degree resolution was estimated from a dataset of seafloor TOC compiled by Seiter et al. [2004] and a non-parametric (i.e. data-driven) machine learning algorithm, specifically k-nearest neighbors (KNN). Built-in predictor selection and a ten-fold validation technique generated statistically optimal estimates of seafloor TOC and uncertainties. In addition, inexperience was estimated. Inexperience is effectively the distance in parameter space to the single nearest neighbor, and it indicates geographic locations where future data collection would most benefit prediction accuracy. These improved geospatial estimates of TOC in data deficient areas will provide new constraints on methane production and subsequent methane hydrate accumulation.

A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22: Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

Science.gov (United States)

Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

1986-01-01

Using the dynamo theory method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22 - Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

Science.gov (United States)

Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

1984-01-01

Using the 'dynamo theory' method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

Modelling the number of olive groves in Spanish municipalities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huete, M.D.; Marmolejo, J.A.

2016-11-01

The univariate generalized Waring distribution (UGWD) is presented as a new model to describe the goodness of fit, applicable in the context of agriculture. In this paper, it was used to model the number of olive groves recorded in Spain in the 8,091 municipalities recorded in the 2009 Agricultural Census, according to which the production of oil olives accounted for 94% of total output, while that of table olives represented 6% (with an average of 44.84 and 4.06 holdings per Spanish municipality, respectively). UGWD is suitable for fitting this type of discrete data, with strong left-sided asymmetry. This novel use of UGWD can provide the foundation for future research in agriculture, with the advantage over other discrete distributions that enables the analyst to split the variance. After defining the distribution, we analysed various methods for fitting the parameters associated with it, namely estimation by maximum likelihood, estimation by the method of moments and a variant of the latter, estimation by the method of frequencies and moments. For oil olives, the chi-square goodness of fit test gives p-values of 0.9992, 0.9967 and 0.9977, respectively. However, a poor fit was obtained for the table olive distribution. Finally, the variance was split, following Irwin, into three components related to random factors, external factors and internal differences. For the distribution of the number of olive grove holdings, this splitting showed that random and external factors only account about 0.22% and 0.05%. Therefore, internal differences within municipalities play an important role in determining total variability. (Author)

The Precision of Mapping Between Number Words and the Approximate Number System Predicts Children’s Formal Math Abilities

Science.gov (United States)

Libertus, Melissa E.; Odic, Darko; Feigenson, Lisa; Halberda, Justin

2016-01-01

Children can represent number in at least two ways: by using their non-verbal, intuitive Approximate Number System (ANS), and by using words and symbols to count and represent numbers exactly. Further, by the time they are five years old, children can map between the ANS and number words, as evidenced by their ability to verbally estimate numbers of items without counting. How does the quality of the mapping between approximate and exact numbers relate to children’s math abilities? The role of the ANS-number word mapping in math competence remains controversial for at least two reasons. First, previous work has not examined the relation between verbal estimation and distinct subtypes of math abilities. Second, previous work has not addressed how distinct components of verbal estimation – mapping accuracy and variability – might each relate to math performance. Here, we address these gaps by measuring individual differences in ANS precision, verbal number estimation, and formal and informal math abilities in 5- to 7-year-old children. We found that verbal estimation variability, but not estimation accuracy, predicted formal math abilities even when controlling for age, expressive vocabulary, and ANS precision, and that it mediated the link between ANS precision and overall math ability. These findings suggest that variability in the ANS-number word mapping may be especially important for formal math abilities. PMID:27348475

Near real-time estimation of ionosphere vertical total electron content from GNSS satellites using B-splines in a Kalman filter

Science.gov (United States)

Erdogan, Eren; Schmidt, Michael; Seitz, Florian; Durmaz, Murat

2017-02-01

Although the number of terrestrial global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers supported by the International GNSS Service (IGS) is rapidly growing, the worldwide rather inhomogeneously distributed observation sites do not allow the generation of high-resolution global ionosphere products. Conversely, with the regionally enormous increase in highly precise GNSS data, the demands on (near) real-time ionosphere products, necessary in many applications such as navigation, are growing very fast. Consequently, many analysis centers accepted the responsibility of generating such products. In this regard, the primary objective of our work is to develop a near real-time processing framework for the estimation of the vertical total electron content (VTEC) of the ionosphere using proper models that are capable of a global representation adapted to the real data distribution. The global VTEC representation developed in this work is based on a series expansion in terms of compactly supported B-spline functions, which allow for an appropriate handling of the heterogeneous data distribution, including data gaps. The corresponding series coefficients and additional parameters such as differential code biases of the GNSS satellites and receivers constitute the set of unknown parameters. The Kalman filter (KF), as a popular recursive estimator, allows processing of the data immediately after acquisition and paves the way of sequential (near) real-time estimation of the unknown parameters. To exploit the advantages of the chosen data representation and the estimation procedure, the B-spline model is incorporated into the KF under the consideration of necessary constraints. Based on a preprocessing strategy, the developed approach utilizes hourly batches of GPS and GLONASS observations provided by the IGS data centers with a latency of 1 h in its current realization. Two methods for validation of the results are performed, namely the self consistency analysis and a comparison

Evolution of floral display in Eichhornia paniculata (Pontederiaceae): direct and correlated responses to selection on flower size and number.

Science.gov (United States)

Worley, A C; Barrett, S C

2000-10-01

Trade-offs between flower size and number seem likely to influence the evolution of floral display and are an important assumption of several theoretical models. We assessed floral trade-offs by imposing two generations of selection on flower size and number in a greenhouse population of bee-pollinated Eichhornia paniculata. We established a control line and two replicate selection lines of 100 plants each for large flowers (S+), small flowers (S-), and many flowers per inflorescence (N+). We compared realized heritabilities and genetic correlations with estimates based on restricted-maximum-likelihood (REML) analysis of pedigrees. Responses to selection confirmed REML heritability estimates (flower size, h2 = 0.48; daily flower number, h2 = 0.10; total flower number, h2 = 0.23). Differences in nectar, pollen, and ovule production between S+ and S- lines supported an overall divergence in investment per flower. Both realized and REML estimates of the genetic correlation between daily and total flower number were r = 1.0. However, correlated responses to selection were inconsistent in their support of a trade-off. In both S- lines, correlated increases in flower number indicated a genetic correlation of r = -0.6 between flower size and number. In contrast, correlated responses in N+ and S+ lines were not significant, although flower size decreased in one N+ line. In addition, REML estimates of genetic correlations between flower size and number were positive, and did not differ from zero when variation in leaf area and age at first flowering were taken into account. These results likely reflect the combined effects of variation in genes controlling the resources available for flowering and genes with opposing effects on flower size and number. Our results suggest that the short-term evolution of floral display is not necessarily constrained by trade-offs between flower size and number, as is often assumed.

A meta-regression analysis of 41 Australian problem gambling prevalence estimates and their relationship to total spending on electronic gaming machines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francis Markham

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Many jurisdictions regularly conduct surveys to estimate the prevalence of problem gambling in their adult populations. However, the comparison of such estimates is problematic due to methodological variations between studies. Total consumption theory suggests that an association between mean electronic gaming machine (EGM and casino gambling losses and problem gambling prevalence estimates may exist. If this is the case, then changes in EGM losses may be used as a proxy indicator for changes in problem gambling prevalence. To test for this association this study examines the relationship between aggregated losses on electronic gaming machines (EGMs and problem gambling prevalence estimates for Australian states and territories between 1994 and 2016. Methods A Bayesian meta-regression analysis of 41 cross-sectional problem gambling prevalence estimates was undertaken using EGM gambling losses, year of survey and methodological variations as predictor variables. General population studies of adults in Australian states and territory published before 1 July 2016 were considered in scope. 41 studies were identified, with a total of 267,367 participants. Problem gambling prevalence, moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence, problem gambling screen, administration mode and frequency threshold were extracted from surveys. Administrative data on EGM and casino gambling loss data were extracted from government reports and expressed as the proportion of household disposable income lost. Results Money lost on EGMs is correlated with problem gambling prevalence. An increase of 1% of household disposable income lost on EGMs and in casinos was associated with problem gambling prevalence estimates that were 1.33 times higher [95% credible interval 1.04, 1.71]. There was no clear association between EGM losses and moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates. Moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates were not explained by

A meta-regression analysis of 41 Australian problem gambling prevalence estimates and their relationship to total spending on electronic gaming machines.

Science.gov (United States)

Markham, Francis; Young, Martin; Doran, Bruce; Sugden, Mark

2017-05-23

Many jurisdictions regularly conduct surveys to estimate the prevalence of problem gambling in their adult populations. However, the comparison of such estimates is problematic due to methodological variations between studies. Total consumption theory suggests that an association between mean electronic gaming machine (EGM) and casino gambling losses and problem gambling prevalence estimates may exist. If this is the case, then changes in EGM losses may be used as a proxy indicator for changes in problem gambling prevalence. To test for this association this study examines the relationship between aggregated losses on electronic gaming machines (EGMs) and problem gambling prevalence estimates for Australian states and territories between 1994 and 2016. A Bayesian meta-regression analysis of 41 cross-sectional problem gambling prevalence estimates was undertaken using EGM gambling losses, year of survey and methodological variations as predictor variables. General population studies of adults in Australian states and territory published before 1 July 2016 were considered in scope. 41 studies were identified, with a total of 267,367 participants. Problem gambling prevalence, moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence, problem gambling screen, administration mode and frequency threshold were extracted from surveys. Administrative data on EGM and casino gambling loss data were extracted from government reports and expressed as the proportion of household disposable income lost. Money lost on EGMs is correlated with problem gambling prevalence. An increase of 1% of household disposable income lost on EGMs and in casinos was associated with problem gambling prevalence estimates that were 1.33 times higher [95% credible interval 1.04, 1.71]. There was no clear association between EGM losses and moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates. Moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates were not explained by the models (I 2  ≥ 0.97; R 2  ≤ 0.01). The

a model for estimating mental health service needs in south africa

African Journals Online (AJOL)

and ry: is. J. 1997;. -198. rg ve bal. 0;. 96; five- al ve ative bal tion- ison. 5: , eds. el1 ess of . 55. ross- in. 61-. A MODEL FOR ESTIMATING. MENTAL HEALTH .... added to the number of full-time mental health workers, this gives the total number of full-time equivalent (FrE) mental health workers,. Workload for psychiatric ...

Estimated number of preterm births and low birth weight children born in the United States due to maternal binge drinking.

Science.gov (United States)

Truong, Khoa D; Reifsnider, Odette S; Mayorga, Maria E; Spitler, Hugh

2013-05-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the aggregate burden of maternal binge drinking on preterm birth (PTB) and low birth weight (LBW) across American sociodemographic groups in 2008. To estimate the aggregate burden of maternal binge drinking on preterm birth (PTB) and low birth weight (LBW) across American sociodemographic groups in 2008. A simulation model was developed to estimate the number of PTB and LBW cases due to maternal binge drinking. Data inputs for the model included number of births and rates of preterm and LBW from the National Center for Health Statistics; female population by childbearing age groups from the U.S. Census; increased relative risks of preterm and LBW deliveries due to maternal binge drinking extracted from the literature; and adjusted prevalence of binge drinking among pregnant women estimated in a multivariate logistic regression model using Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. The most conservative estimates attributed maternal binge drinking to 8,701 (95% CI: 7,804-9,598) PTBs (1.75% of all PTBs) and 5,627 (95% CI 5,121-6,133) LBW deliveries in 2008, with 3,708 (95% CI: 3,375-4,041) cases of both PTB and LBW. The estimated rate of PTB due to maternal binge drinking was 1.57% among all PTBs to White women, 0.69% among Black women, 3.31% among Hispanic women, and 2.35% among other races. Compared to other age groups, women ages 40-44 had the highest adjusted binge drinking rate and highest PTB rate due to maternal binge drinking (4.33%). Maternal binge drinking contributed significantly to PTB and LBW differentially across sociodemographic groups.

Adoption of an unmanned helicopter for low-altitude remote sensing to estimate yield and total biomass of a rice crop

Science.gov (United States)

A radio-controlled unmanned helicopter-based LARS (Low-Altitude Remote Sensing) platform was used to acquire quality images of high spatial and temporal resolution, in order to estimate yield and total biomass of a rice crop (Oriza Sativa, L.). Fifteen rice field plots with five N-treatments (0, 33,...

The estimation of genetic divergence

Science.gov (United States)

Holmquist, R.; Conroy, T.

1981-01-01

Consideration is given to the criticism of Nei and Tateno (1978) of the REH (random evolutionary hits) theory of genetic divergence in nucleic acids and proteins, and to their proposed alternative estimator of total fixed mutations designated X2. It is argued that the assumption of nonuniform amino acid or nucleotide substitution will necessarily increase REH estimates relative to those made for a model where each locus has an equal likelihood of fixing mutations, thus the resulting value will not be an overestimation. The relative values of X2 and measures calculated on the basis of the PAM and REH theories for the number of nucleotide substitutions necessary to explain a given number of observed amino acid differences between two homologous proteins are compared, and the smaller values of X2 are attributed to (1) a mathematical model based on the incorrect assumption that an entire structural gene is free to fix mutations and (2) the assumptions of different numbers of variable codons for the X2 and REH calculations. Results of a repeat of the computer simulations of Nei and Tateno are presented which, in contrast to the original results, confirm the REH theory. It is pointed out that while a negative correlation is observed between estimations of the fixation intensity per varion and the number of varions for a given pair of sequences, the correlation between the two fixation intensities and varion numbers of two different pairs of sequences need not be negative. Finally, REH theory is used to resolve a paradox concerning the high rate of covarion turnover and the nature of general function sites as permanent covarions.

Estimate of main local sources to ambient ultrafine particle number concentrations in an urban area

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Md Mahmudur; Mazaheri, Mandana; Clifford, Sam; Morawska, Lidia

2017-09-01

Quantifying and apportioning the contribution of a range of sources to ultrafine particles (UFPs, D oil refineries, and seaport) sources to the total ambient particle number concentration (PNC) in a busy, inner-city area in Brisbane, Australia using Bayesian statistical modelling and other exploratory tools. The Bayesian model was trained on the PNC data on days where NP formations were known to have not occurred, hourly traffic counts, solar radiation data, and smooth daily trend. The model was applied to apportion and quantify the contribution of NP formations and local traffic and non-traffic sources to UFPs. The data analysis incorporated long-term measured time-series of total PNC (D ≥ 6 nm), particle number size distributions (PSD, D = 8 to 400 nm), PM2.5, PM10, NOx, CO, meteorological parameters and traffic counts at a stationary monitoring site. The developed Bayesian model showed reliable predictive performances in quantifying the contribution of NP formation events to UFPs (up to 4 × 104 particles cm- 3), with a significant day to day variability. The model identified potential NP formation and no-formations days based on PNC data and quantified the sources contribution to UFPs. Exploratory statistical analyses show that total mean PNC during the middle of the day was up to 32% higher than during peak morning and evening traffic periods, which were associated with NP formation events. The majority of UFPs measured during the peak traffic and NP formation periods were between 30-100 nm and smaller than 30 nm, respectively. To date, this is the first application of Bayesian model to apportion different sources contribution to UFPs, and therefore the importance of this study is not only in its modelling outcomes but in demonstrating the applicability and advantages of this statistical approach to air pollution studies.

Autoregulation of the total number of cells in culture

OpenAIRE

Kozlov, A. A.

2003-01-01

According to the universally accepted concept of the development of life on the Earth, multicellular organisms initially emerged as a result of either the union of identical unicellular organisms with the following functional differentiation, or the union of symbionts, in which there already was a certain simple functional separation. However, in either case the progenitors of multicellular organisms were ensembles, communities of unicellular organisms. For a certain number of unicellular org...

Monte Carlo estimation of total variation distance of Markov chains on large spaces, with application to phylogenetics.

Science.gov (United States)

Herbei, Radu; Kubatko, Laura

2013-03-26

Markov chains are widely used for modeling in many areas of molecular biology and genetics. As the complexity of such models advances, it becomes increasingly important to assess the rate at which a Markov chain converges to its stationary distribution in order to carry out accurate inference. A common measure of convergence to the stationary distribution is the total variation distance, but this measure can be difficult to compute when the state space of the chain is large. We propose a Monte Carlo method to estimate the total variation distance that can be applied in this situation, and we demonstrate how the method can be efficiently implemented by taking advantage of GPU computing techniques. We apply the method to two Markov chains on the space of phylogenetic trees, and discuss the implications of our findings for the development of algorithms for phylogenetic inference.

Dual-joint modeling for estimation of total knee replacement contact forces during locomotion.

Science.gov (United States)

Hast, Michael W; Piazza, Stephen J

2013-02-01

Model-based estimation of in vivo contact forces arising between components of a total knee replacement is challenging because such forces depend upon accurate modeling of muscles, tendons, ligaments, contact, and multibody dynamics. Here we describe an approach to solving this problem with results that are tested by comparison to knee loads measured in vivo for a single subject and made available through the Grand Challenge Competition to Predict in vivo Tibiofemoral Loads. The approach makes use of a "dual-joint" paradigm in which the knee joint is alternately represented by (1) a ball-joint knee for inverse dynamic computation of required muscle controls and (2) a 12 degree-of-freedom (DOF) knee with elastic foundation contact at the tibiofemoral and patellofemoral articulations for forward dynamic integration. Measured external forces and kinematics were applied as a feedback controller and static optimization attempted to track measured knee flexion angles and electromyographic (EMG) activity. The resulting simulations showed excellent tracking of knee flexion (average RMS error of 2.53 deg) and EMG (muscle activations within ±10% envelopes of normalized measured EMG signals). Simulated tibiofemoral contact forces agreed qualitatively with measured contact forces, but their RMS errors were approximately 25% of the peak measured values. These results demonstrate the potential of a dual-joint modeling approach to predict joint contact forces from kinesiological data measured in the motion laboratory. It is anticipated that errors in the estimation of contact force will be reduced as more accurate subject-specific models of muscles and other soft tissues are developed.

Unbounding the mental number line – New evidence on children’s spatial representation of numbers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tanja eLink

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Number line estimation (i.e., indicating the position of a given number on a physical line is a standard assessment of children’s spatial representation of number magnitude. Importantly, there is an ongoing debate on the question in how far the bounded task version with start and endpoint given (e.g., 0 and 100 might induce specific estimation strategies and thus may not allow for unbiased inferences on the underlying representation. Recently, a new unbounded version of the task was suggested with only the start point and a unit fixed (e.g., the distance from 0 to 1. In adults this task provided a less biased index of the spatial representation of number magnitude. Yet, so far there are no children data available for the unbounded number line estimation task. Therefore, we conducted a cross-sectional study on primary school children performing both, the bounded and the unbounded version of the task. We observed clear evidence for systematic strategic influences (i.e., the consideration of reference points in the bounded number line estimation task for children older than grade two whereas there were no such indications for the unbounded version for any one of the age groups. In summary, the current data corroborate the unbounded number line estimation task to be a valuable tool for assessing children's spatial representation of number magnitude in a systematic and unbiased manner. Yet, similar results for the bounded and the unbounded version of the task for first- and second-graders may indicate that both versions of the task might assess the same underlying representation for relatively younger children - at least in number ranges familiar to the children assessed. This is of particular importance for inferences about the nature and development of children's magnitude representation.

Estimation of Total Nitrogen and Phosphorus in New England Streams Using Spatially Referenced Regression Models

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Richard Bridge; Johnston, Craig M.; Robinson, Keith W.; Deacon, Jeffrey R.

2004-01-01

phosphorus model include discharges for municipal wastewater-treatment facilities and pulp and paper facilities, developed land area, agricultural area, and forested area. For total phosphorus, loss rates were significant for reservoirs with surface areas of 10 square kilometers or less, and in streams with flows less than or equal to 2.83 cubic meters per second. Applications of SPARROW for evaluating nutrient loading in New England waters include estimates of the spatial distributions of total nitrogen and phosphorus yields, sources of the nutrients, and the potential for delivery of those yields to receiving waters. This information can be used to (1) predict ranges in nutrient levels in surface waters, (2) identify the environmental variables that are statistically significant predictors of nutrient levels in streams, (3) evaluate monitoring efforts for better determination of nutrient loads, and (4) evaluate management options for reducing nutrient loads to achieve water-quality goals.

Remote sensing estimation of the total phosphorus concentration in a large lake using band combinations and regional multivariate statistical modeling techniques.

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Yongnian; Gao, Junfeng; Yin, Hongbin; Liu, Chuansheng; Xia, Ting; Wang, Jing; Huang, Qi

2015-03-15

Remote sensing has been widely used for ater quality monitoring, but most of these monitoring studies have only focused on a few water quality variables, such as chlorophyll-a, turbidity, and total suspended solids, which have typically been considered optically active variables. Remote sensing presents a challenge in estimating the phosphorus concentration in water. The total phosphorus (TP) in lakes has been estimated from remotely sensed observations, primarily using the simple individual band ratio or their natural logarithm and the statistical regression method based on the field TP data and the spectral reflectance. In this study, we investigated the possibility of establishing a spatial modeling scheme to estimate the TP concentration of a large lake from multi-spectral satellite imagery using band combinations and regional multivariate statistical modeling techniques, and we tested the applicability of the spatial modeling scheme. The results showed that HJ-1A CCD multi-spectral satellite imagery can be used to estimate the TP concentration in a lake. The correlation and regression analysis showed a highly significant positive relationship between the TP concentration and certain remotely sensed combination variables. The proposed modeling scheme had a higher accuracy for the TP concentration estimation in the large lake compared with the traditional individual band ratio method and the whole-lake scale regression-modeling scheme. The TP concentration values showed a clear spatial variability and were high in western Lake Chaohu and relatively low in eastern Lake Chaohu. The northernmost portion, the northeastern coastal zone and the southeastern portion of western Lake Chaohu had the highest TP concentrations, and the other regions had the lowest TP concentration values, except for the coastal zone of eastern Lake Chaohu. These results strongly suggested that the proposed modeling scheme, i.e., the band combinations and the regional multivariate

Results and evaluation of a survey to estimate Pacific walrus population size, 2006

Science.gov (United States)

Speckman, Suzann G.; Chernook, Vladimir I.; Burn, Douglas M.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Kochnev, Anatoly A.; Vasilev, Alexander; Jay, Chadwick V.; Lisovsky, Alexander; Fischbach, Anthony S.; Benter, R. Bradley

2011-01-01

In spring 2006, we conducted a collaborative U.S.-Russia survey to estimate abundance of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens). The Bering Sea was partitioned into survey blocks, and a systematic random sample of transects within a subset of the blocks was surveyed with airborne thermal scanners using standard strip-transect methodology. Counts of walruses in photographed groups were used to model the relation between thermal signatures and the number of walruses in groups, which was used to estimate the number of walruses in groups that were detected by the scanner but not photographed. We also modeled the probability of thermally detecting various-sized walrus groups to estimate the number of walruses in groups undetected by the scanner. We used data from radio-tagged walruses to adjust on-ice estimates to account for walruses in the water during the survey. The estimated area of available habitat averaged 668,000 km2 and the area of surveyed blocks was 318,204 km2. The number of Pacific walruses within the surveyed area was estimated at 129,000 with 95% confidence limits of 55,000 to 507,000 individuals. This value can be used by managers as a minimum estimate of the total population size.

Effect of Antihypertensive Therapy on SCORE-Estimated Total Cardiovascular Risk: Results from an Open-Label, Multinational Investigation—The POWER Survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guy De Backer

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Background. High blood pressure is a substantial risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Design & Methods. The Physicians' Observational Work on patient Education according to their vascular Risk (POWER survey was an open-label investigation of eprosartan-based therapy (EBT for control of high blood pressure in primary care centers in 16 countries. A prespecified element of this research was appraisal of the impact of EBT on estimated 10-year risk of a fatal cardiovascular event as determined by the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE model. Results. SCORE estimates of CVD risk were obtained at baseline from 12,718 patients in 15 countries (6504 men and from 9577 patients at 6 months. During EBT mean (±SD systolic/diastolic blood pressures declined from 160.2 ± 13.7/94.1 ± 9.1 mmHg to 134.5 ± 11.2/81.4 ± 7.4 mmHg. This was accompanied by a 38% reduction in mean SCORE-estimated CVD risk and an improvement in SCORE risk classification of one category or more in 3506 patients (36.6%. Conclusion. Experience in POWER affirms that (a effective pharmacological control of blood pressure is feasible in the primary care setting and is accompanied by a reduction in total CVD risk and (b the SCORE instrument is effective in this setting for the monitoring of total CVD risk.

Effect of Antihypertensive Therapy on SCORE-Estimated Total Cardiovascular Risk: Results from an Open-Label, Multinational Investigation—The POWER Survey

Science.gov (United States)

De Backer, Guy; Petrella, Robert J.; Goudev, Assen R.; Radaideh, Ghazi Ahmad; Rynkiewicz, Andrzej; Pathak, Atul

2013-01-01

Background. High blood pressure is a substantial risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Design & Methods. The Physicians' Observational Work on patient Education according to their vascular Risk (POWER) survey was an open-label investigation of eprosartan-based therapy (EBT) for control of high blood pressure in primary care centers in 16 countries. A prespecified element of this research was appraisal of the impact of EBT on estimated 10-year risk of a fatal cardiovascular event as determined by the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) model. Results. SCORE estimates of CVD risk were obtained at baseline from 12,718 patients in 15 countries (6504 men) and from 9577 patients at 6 months. During EBT mean (±SD) systolic/diastolic blood pressures declined from 160.2 ± 13.7/94.1 ± 9.1 mmHg to 134.5 ± 11.2/81.4 ± 7.4 mmHg. This was accompanied by a 38% reduction in mean SCORE-estimated CVD risk and an improvement in SCORE risk classification of one category or more in 3506 patients (36.6%). Conclusion. Experience in POWER affirms that (a) effective pharmacological control of blood pressure is feasible in the primary care setting and is accompanied by a reduction in total CVD risk and (b) the SCORE instrument is effective in this setting for the monitoring of total CVD risk. PMID:23997946

Cost Estimating Handbook for Environmental Restoration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

Environmental restoration (ER) projects have presented the DOE and cost estimators with a number of properties that are not comparable to the normal estimating climate within DOE. These properties include: An entirely new set of specialized expressions and terminology. A higher than normal exposure to cost and schedule risk, as compared to most other DOE projects, due to changing regulations, public involvement, resource shortages, and scope of work. A higher than normal percentage of indirect costs to the total estimated cost due primarily to record keeping, special training, liability, and indemnification. More than one estimate for a project, particularly in the assessment phase, in order to provide input into the evaluation of alternatives for the cleanup action. While some aspects of existing guidance for cost estimators will be applicable to environmental restoration projects, some components of the present guidelines will have to be modified to reflect the unique elements of these projects. The purpose of this Handbook is to assist cost estimators in the preparation of environmental restoration estimates for Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) projects undertaken by DOE. The DOE has, in recent years, seen a significant increase in the number, size, and frequency of environmental restoration projects that must be costed by the various DOE offices. The coming years will show the EM program to be the largest non-weapons program undertaken by DOE. These projects create new and unique estimating requirements since historical cost and estimating precedents are meager at best. It is anticipated that this Handbook will enhance the quality of cost data within DOE in several ways by providing: The basis for accurate, consistent, and traceable baselines. Sound methodologies, guidelines, and estimating formats. Sources of cost data/databases and estimating tools and techniques available at DOE cost professionals

Modelling the number of olive groves in Spanish municipalities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María-Dolores Huete

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The univariate generalized Waring distribution (UGWD is presented as a new model to describe the goodness of fit, applicable in the context of agriculture. In this paper, it was used to model the number of olive groves recorded in Spain in the 8,091 municipalities recorded in the 2009 Agricultural Census, according to which the production of oil olives accounted for 94% of total output, while that of table olives represented 6% (with an average of 44.84 and 4.06 holdings per Spanish municipality, respectively. UGWD is suitable for fitting this type of discrete data, with strong left-sided asymmetry. This novel use of UGWD can provide the foundation for future research in agriculture, with the advantage over other discrete distributions that enables the analyst to split the variance. After defining the distribution, we analysed various methods for fitting the parameters associated with it, namely estimation by maximum likelihood, estimation by the method of moments and a variant of the latter, estimation by the method of frequencies and moments. For oil olives, the chi-square goodness of fit test gives p-values of 0.9992, 0.9967 and 0.9977, respectively. However, a poor fit was obtained for the table olive distribution. Finally, the variance was split, following Irwin, into three components related to random factors, external factors and internal differences. For the distribution of the number of olive grove holdings, this splitting showed that random and external factors only account about 0.22% and 0.05%. Therefore, internal differences within municipalities play an important role in determining total variability.

Disease prevalence estimations based on contact registrations in general practice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoogenveen, Rudolf; Westert, Gert; Dijkgraaf, Marcel; Schellevis, François; de Bakker, Dinny

2002-01-01

This paper describes how to estimate the prevalence of chronic diseases in a population using data from contact registrations in general practice with a limited time length. Instead of using only total numbers of observed patients adjusted for the length of the observation period, we propose the use

Predicting the required number of training samples. [for remotely sensed image data based on covariance matrix estimate quality criterion of normal distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Kalayeh, H. M.; Landgrebe, D. A.

1983-01-01

A criterion which measures the quality of the estimate of the covariance matrix of a multivariate normal distribution is developed. Based on this criterion, the necessary number of training samples is predicted. Experimental results which are used as a guide for determining the number of training samples are included. Previously announced in STAR as N82-28109

Dietary intake estimations of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) based on a total diet study in Osaka, Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Akutsu, K; Takatori, S; Nakazawa, H; Hayakawa, K; Izumi, S; Makino, T

2008-01-01

This study presents the results of a total diet study performed for estimating the dietary intake of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in Osaka, Japan. The concentrations of 36 PBDEs were measured in samples from 14 food groups (Groups I-XIV). PBDEs were detected only in Groups IV (oils and fats), V (legumes and their products), X (fish, shellfish, and their products), and XI (meat and eggs) at concentrations of 1.8, 0.03, 0.48, and 0.01 ng g⁻¹, respectively. For an average person, the lower bound dietary intakes of penta- and deca-formulations were estimated to be 46 and 21 ng day⁻¹, respectively. A high proportion of the decabrominated congener (DeBDE-209) was observed in Group IV. To confirm the presence of DeBDE-209 in vegetable oils, an additional analysis was performed using 18 vegetable oil samples. Of these, seven contained ng g⁻¹ levels of DeBDE-209.

Preliminary estimates of the total-system cost for the restructured program: An addendum to the May 1989 analysis of the total-system life cycle cost for the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-12-01

The total-system life-cycle cost (TSLCC) analysis for the Department of Energy's (DOE) Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program is an ongoing activity that helps determine whether the revenue-producing mechanism established by the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 - a fee levied on electricity generated and sold by commercial nuclear power plants - is sufficient to cover the cost of the program. This report provides cost estimates for the sixth annual evaluation of the adequacy of the fee. The costs contained in this report represent a preliminary analysis of the cost impacts associated with the Secretary of Energy's Report to Congress on Reassessment of the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program issued in November 1989. The major elements of the restructured program announced in this report which pertain to the program's life-cycle costs are: a prioritization of the scientific investigations program at the Yucca Mountain candidate site to focus on identification of potentially adverse conditions, a delay in the start of repository operations until 2010, the start of limited waste acceptance at the monitored retrievable storage (MRS) facility in 1998, and the start of waste acceptance at the full-capability MRS facility in 2,000. Based on the restructured program, the total-system cost for the system with a repository at the candidate site at Yucca Mountain in Nevada, a facility for monitored retrievable storage (MRS), and a transportation system is estimated at $26 billion (expressed in constant 1988 dollars). In the event that a second repository is required and is authorized by the Congress, the total-system cost is estimated at $34 to $35 billion, depending on the quantity of spent fuel and high-level waste (HLW) requiring disposal. 17 figs., 17 tabs

Estimates of Workers with Noise-Induced Hearing Loss and Population at Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Miyakita, T.; Ueda, A.

1997-08-01

Towards the goal of protecting workers from damage due to noise exposure, a vast store of knowledge has been generated about its nature, etiology and time course. There still exists, however, a strong need to reclarify the locations, nature and magnitude of the problem of noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL). Based on the rate of positive results in a hearing screening test in the workplace, this paper presents an attempt to estimate the total number of workers with more than 40 dB hearing loss at 4 kHz caused by occupational noise exposure. The estimated values in major industry groups were as follows: about 780 000 in manufacturing; 410 000 in construction; 360 000 in agriculture; forestry and fishing; and around 2 million in total. Although it is rather difficult to estimate the number of workers exposed to noise above 85 dB(A), it may be reasonable to believe that at least several million workers exposed to noise should be covered by the 1992 guidelines for the prevention of noise hazards.

Estimates of the Number of Workers Exposed to Diesel Engine Exhaust in South Korea from 1993 to 2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sangjun Choi

2016-12-01

Conclusion: The DEE prevalence rates we surveyed (1.3–19.8% were higher than the primary prevalence rates. The most common emission sources of DEE were diesel engine vehicles such as forklifts, trucks, and vans. Our estimated numbers of workers exposed to DEE can be used to identify industries with workers requiring protection from potential exposure to DEE in the Republic of Korea.

Simple estimate of fission rate during JCO criticality accident

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oyamatsu, Kazuhiro [Faculty of Studies on Contemporary Society, Aichi Shukutoku Univ., Nagakute, Aichi (Japan)

2000-03-01

The fission rate during JCO criticality accident is estimated from fission-product (FP) radioactivities in a uranium solution sample taken from the preparation basin 20 days after the accident. The FP radioactivity data are taken from a report by JAERI released in the Accident Investigation Committee. The total fission number is found quite dependent on the FP radioactivities and estimated to be about 4x10{sup 16} per liter, or 2x10{sup 18} per 16 kgU (assuming uranium concentration 278.9 g/liter). On the contrary, the time dependence of the fission rate is rather insensitive to the FP radioactivities. Hence, it is difficult to determine the fission number in the initial burst from the radioactivity data. (author)

Simple estimate of fission rate during JCO criticality accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oyamatsu, Kazuhiro

2000-01-01

The fission rate during JCO criticality accident is estimated from fission-product (FP) radioactivities in a uranium solution sample taken from the preparation basin 20 days after the accident. The FP radioactivity data are taken from a report by JAERI released in the Accident Investigation Committee. The total fission number is found quite dependent on the FP radioactivities and estimated to be about 4x10 16 per liter, or 2x10 18 per 16 kgU (assuming uranium concentration 278.9 g/liter). On the contrary, the time dependence of the fission rate is rather insensitive to the FP radioactivities. Hence, it is difficult to determine the fission number in the initial burst from the radioactivity data. (author)

Comparative Assessments of the Seasonality in "The Total Number of Overnight Stays" in Romania, Bulgaria and the European Union

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jugănaru Ion Dănuț

2017-01-01

For the quantitative research carried out in this study, we processed a database consisting of the monthly values of “the total number of overnight stays” indicator, recorded between January 2005 and December 2016, using the moving average method, the seasonality coefficient and EViews 5. The results led to the formulation of comparative assessments regarding the seasonality in the tourism activities from Romania and Bulgaria and their situation compared to the average of the seasonality recorded in the EU.

Estimate of person-years at risk among A-bomb survivors, Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hrubec, Z

1964-11-19

Using information from the Supplementary Schedules of the 1950 National Census and from the JNIH-ABCC Life Span Study, cumulative person-years at risk in 1950 to 1960 were estimated by age ATB, sex, distance from hypocenter, radiation dose and symptoms for A-bomb survivors resident in Hiroshima and Nagasaki cities. The number of person-years at risk in 1951 to 1958 was estimated by applying the survivorship in each age group of the Adult Health Study sample during the period 1951 to 1958 to the number of survivors in 1950. To determine the number of person-years at risk from 1959 to 1960, the average yearly loss was evaluated for each exposure group for the period 1955 to 1958 in Hiroshima and for 1953 to 1958 in Nagasaki which was then applied to 1959 and 1960, respectively. The estimate of person-years among the nonexposed groups for this period was obtained from the above estimates, the total population of both cities, and the number of persons born after the A-bombing. Estimates by other associated factors were obtained by the same procedure. 20 references, 25 tables.

Estimating the Total Heat Flux from the ASHES Hydrothermal Vent Field Using the Sentry Autonomous Underwater Vehicle

Science.gov (United States)

Crone, T. J.; Kinsey, J. C.; Mittelstaedt, E. L.

2017-12-01

Hydrothermal venting at mid-ocean ridges influences ocean chemistry, the thermal and chemical structure of the oceanic crust, and the evolution of unique and diverse autolithotrophically-supported ecosystems. Axially-hosted hydrothermal systems are responsible for 20-25% of the total heat flux out of Earth's interior, and likely play a large role in local as well as global biogeochemical cycles. Despite the importance of these systems, only a few studies have attempted to constrain the volume and heat flux of an entire hydrothermal vent field. In July of 2014 we used the Sentry autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) to survey the water column over the ASHES hydrothermal vent field which is located within the caldera of Axial Seamount, an active submarine volcano located on the Juan de Fuca Ridge. To estimate the total heat and mass flux from this vent field, we equipped Sentry with a Nortek acoustic Doppler velocimeter (ADV), an inertial measurement unit (IMU), two acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs), and two SBE3 temperature probes, allowing us to obtain precise measurements of fluid temperature and water velocity. The survey was designed using a control volume approach in which Sentry was pre-programmed to survey a 150-m-square centered over the vent field flying a grid pattern with 5-m track line spacing followed by a survey of the perimeter. This pattern was repeated multiple times during several 10-h dives at different altitudes, including 10, 20, 40, and 60 m above the seafloor, and during one 40-h survey at an altitude of 10 m. During the 40-h survey, the pattern was repeated nine times allowing us to obtain observations over several tidal cycles. Water velocity data obtained with Sentry were corrected for platform motion and then combined with the temperature measurements to estimate heat flux. The analysis of these data will likely provide the most accurate and highest resolution heat and mass flux estimates at a seafloor hydrothermal field to date.

Estimates of Atmospheric Distortion Number for Nonlinear Refraction

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Roadcap, J. R; McNicholl, P. J; Beland, R. R; Jumper, G. Y

2007-01-01

A characteristic nondimensional distortion number Nd was derived in the 1970s that allows inference of the degree of nonlinear refraction or thermal blooming associated with an atmospheric laser path...

Signals of lepton number violation

CERN Document Server

Panella, O; Srivastava, Y N

1999-01-01

The production of like-sign-dileptons (LSD), in the high energy lepton number violating ( Delta L=+2) reaction, pp to 2jets+l/sup +/l /sup +/, (l=e, mu , tau ), of interest for the experiments to be performed at the forthcoming Large Hadron Collider (LHC), is reported, taking up a composite model scenario in which the exchanged virtual composite neutrino is assumed to be a Majorana particle. Numerical estimates of the corresponding signal cross-section that implement kinematical cuts needed to suppress the standard model background, are presented which show that in some regions of the parameter space the total number of LSD events is well above the background. Assuming non-observation of the LSD signal it is found that LHC would exclude a composite Majorana neutrino up to 700 GeV (if one requires 10 events for discovery). The sensitivity of LHC experiments to the parameter space is then compared to that of the next generation of neutrinoless double beta decay ( beta beta /sub 0 nu /) experiment, GENIUS, and i...

Estimating the availability of LLEA officers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berkbigler, K.P.

1977-07-01

An important element in the analysis of transportation safeguards systems is the determination of the availability of local law enforcement agents. Such information is necessary to identify areas where there are few officers available and to make comparisons of alternative routes. A computerized model, COPS, has been developed which rapidly estimates the total number of officers along a highway route. This paper briefly describes the model and presents example results for several routes in California and Nevada

Estimating Rates of Fault Insertion and Test Effectiveness in Software Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Nikora, A.; Munson, J.

1998-01-01

In developing a software system, we would like to estimate the total number of faults inserted into a software system, the residual fault content of that system at any given time, and the efficacy of the testing activity in executing the code containing the newly inserted faults.

Spatio-temporal changes in total annual rainfall and the annual number of rainy days

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Limjirakan, Sangchan; Limsakul, Atsamon

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: Rainfall variability is a critical factor for Thailand's socioeconomic development. Thus, enhancing understanding of rainfall mechanisms and variability is of paramount importance for effective strategies in tackling the severe droughts/floods which are memorable and a recurring problem in Thailand. Through this study, we have examined the variability of total annual rainfall (R,otai) and the annual number of rainy days (Rday) in Thailand during 1951-2003, using an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The primary objective is to determine the dominant spatio-temporal patterns, and to illustrate their connection with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results reveal that the first two EOF modes, which explain nearly half of the total variance, show a good coherence of spatio-temporal structures. A salient feature of the leading modes of R,otal and Rday in Thailand is that their temporal coefficients exhibit significant relations to the ENSO. On an interannual timescale, the leading modes tended to be greater (lower) than normal during the La Nina (El Nino) phase of the ENSO. Changes in the Walker circulation appear to be the dominant mechanism whereby the ENSO exerts its influence on rainfall variability in Thailand. For an interdecadal timescale, there is evidence of the unusual and persistent deficit in Rtar accompanied by a concomitant reduction of Ranrd over the last three decades. The recent drought-like condition has been closely associated with the shift in the ENSO towards more El Nino events since the late 1970s, and coincided with the high global mean temperature. These natural/anthropogenic-induced climatic changes have important implications for rainfall forecasting, and consequently for water resource and agricultural planning and management in Thailand

Monitoring dolphins in an urban marine system: total and effective population size estimates of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay, Australia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ina C Ansmann

Full Text Available Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia is an area of high biodiversity and conservation value and home to two sympatric sub-populations of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus. These dolphins live in close proximity to major urban developments. Successful management requires information regarding their abundance. Here, we estimate total and effective population sizes of bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay using photo-identification and genetic data collected during boat-based surveys in 2008-2010. Abundance (N was estimated using open population mark-recapture models based on sighting histories of distinctive individuals. Effective population size (Ne was estimated using the linkage disequilibrium method based on nuclear genetic data at 20 microsatellite markers in skin samples, and corrected for bias caused by overlapping generations (Ne c. A total of 174 sightings of dolphin groups were recorded and 365 different individuals identified. Over the whole of Moreton Bay, a population size N of 554 ± 22.2 (SE (95% CI: 510-598 was estimated. The southern bay sub-population was small at an estimated N = 193 ± 6.4 (SE (95% CI: 181-207, while the North sub-population was more numerous, with 446 ± 56 (SE (95% CI: 336-556 individuals. The small estimated effective population size of the southern sub-population (Ne c = 56, 95% CI: 33-128 raises conservation concerns. A power analysis suggested that to reliably detect small (5% declines in size of this population would require substantial survey effort (>4 years of annual mark-recapture surveys at the precision levels achieved here. To ensure that ecological as well as genetic diversity within this population of bottlenose dolphins is preserved, we consider that North and South sub-populations should be treated as separate management units. Systematic surveys over smaller areas holding locally-adapted sub-populations are suggested as an alternative method for increasing ability to detect

Positioning and number of nutritional levels in dose-response trials to estimate the optimal-level and the adjustment of the models

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Fernando Augusto de Souza

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The aim of this research was to evaluate the influence of the number and position of nutrient levels used in dose-response trials in the estimation of the optimal-level (OL and the goodness of fit on the models: quadratic polynomial (QP, exponential (EXP, linear response plateau (LRP and quadratic response plateau (QRP. It was used data from dose-response trials realized in FCAV-Unesp Jaboticabal considering the homogeneity of variances and normal distribution. The fit of the models were evaluated considered the following statistics: adjusted coefficient of determination (R²adj, coefficient of variation (CV and the sum of the squares of deviations (SSD.It was verified in QP and EXP models that small changes on the placement and distribution of the levels caused great changes in the estimation of the OL. The LRP model was deeply influenced by the absence or presence of the level between the response and stabilization phases (change in the straight to plateau. The QRP needed more levels on the response phase and the last level on stabilization phase to estimate correctly the plateau. It was concluded that the OL and the adjust of the models are dependent on the positioning and the number of the levels and the specific characteristics of each model, but levels defined near to the true requirement and not so spaced are better to estimate the OL.

Estimation of Tri-Axial Walking Ground Reaction Forces of Left and Right Foot from Total Forces in Real-Life Environments

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Erfan Shahabpoor

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Continuous monitoring of natural human gait in real-life environments is essential in many applications including disease monitoring, rehabilitation, and professional sports. Wearable inertial measurement units are successfully used to measure body kinematics in real-life environments and to estimate total walking ground reaction forces GRF(t using equations of motion. However, for inverse dynamics and clinical gait analysis, the GRF(t of each foot is required separately. Using an experimental dataset of 1243 tri-axial separate-foot GRF(t time histories measured by the authors across eight years, this study proposes the ‘Twin Polynomial Method’ (TPM to estimate the tri-axial left and right foot GRF(t signals from the total GRF(t signals. For each gait cycle, TPM fits polynomials of degree five, eight, and nine to the known single-support part of the left and right foot vertical, anterior-posterior, and medial-lateral GRF(t signals, respectively, to extrapolate the unknown double-support parts of the corresponding GRF(t signals. Validation of the proposed method both with force plate measurements (gold standard in the laboratory, and in real-life environment showed a peak-to-peak normalized root mean square error of less than 2.5%, 6.5% and 7.5% for the estimated GRF(t signals in the vertical, anterior-posterior and medial-lateral directions, respectively. These values show considerable improvement compared with the currently available GRF(t decomposition methods in the literature.

Evaluating total carrying capacity of tourism using impact indicators

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R. Sharma

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The carrying capacity is well identified tool to manage problems due to uncontrolled tourism for any destination. This report highlights the carrying capacity estimation of Kerwa tourism area, Bhopal, India. The methodology used in this report is a new two-tier mechanism of impact analysis using index numbers derived from a survey of 123 stakeholders. From this the individual component impact analysis and the total carrying capacity of the area is computed in order to state the insight of the total carrying capacity left for the tourism activities in Kerwa tourism area. It is calculated from, the results so obtained, that the Kerwa catchment area falls in “very low impact category” and hence in a healthy state of the artwork in terms of total carrying capacity. The study conveys the current need in the destination management and tourism development as a road map for the destination managers for implementing sustainable tourism.

Approximate Bayesian algorithm to estimate the basic reproduction number in an influenza pandemic using arrival times of imported cases.

Science.gov (United States)

Chong, Ka Chun; Zee, Benny Chung Ying; Wang, Maggie Haitian

2018-04-10

In an influenza pandemic, arrival times of cases are a proxy of the epidemic size and disease transmissibility. Because of intense surveillance of travelers from infected countries, detection is more rapid and complete than on local surveillance. Travel information can provide a more reliable estimation of transmission parameters. We developed an Approximate Bayesian Computation algorithm to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) in addition to the reporting rate and unobserved epidemic start time, utilizing travel, and routine surveillance data in an influenza pandemic. A simulation was conducted to assess the sampling uncertainty. The estimation approach was further applied to the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico as a case study. In the simulations, we showed that the estimation approach was valid and reliable in different simulation settings. We also found estimates of R 0 and the reporting rate to be 1.37 (95% Credible Interval [CI]: 1.26-1.42) and 4.9% (95% CI: 0.1%-18%), respectively, in the 2009 influenza pandemic in Mexico, which were robust to variations in the fixed parameters. The estimated R 0 was consistent with that in the literature. This method is useful for officials to obtain reliable estimates of disease transmissibility for strategic planning. We suggest that improvements to the flow of reporting for confirmed cases among patients arriving at different countries are required. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two-mode bosonic quantum metrology with number fluctuations

Science.gov (United States)

De Pasquale, Antonella; Facchi, Paolo; Florio, Giuseppe; Giovannetti, Vittorio; Matsuoka, Koji; Yuasa, Kazuya

2015-10-01

We search for the optimal quantum pure states of identical bosonic particles for applications in quantum metrology, in particular, in the estimation of a single parameter for the generic two-mode interferometric setup. We consider the general case in which the total number of particles is fluctuating around an average N with variance Δ N2 . By recasting the problem in the framework of classical probability, we clarify the maximal accuracy attainable and show that it is always larger than the one reachable with a fixed number of particles (i.e., Δ N =0 ). In particular, for larger fluctuations, the error in the estimation diminishes proportionally to 1 /Δ N , below the Heisenberg-like scaling 1 /N . We also clarify the best input state, which is a quasi-NOON state for a generic setup and, for some special cases, a two-mode Schrödinger-cat state with a vacuum component. In addition, we search for the best state within the class of pure Gaussian states with a given average N , which is revealed to be a product state (with no entanglement) with a squeezed vacuum in one mode and the vacuum in the other.

Highlights of TOMS Version 9 Total Ozone Algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Bhartia, Pawan; Haffner, David

2012-01-01

The fundamental basis of TOMS total ozone algorithm was developed some 45 years ago by Dave and Mateer. It was designed to estimate total ozone from satellite measurements of the backscattered UV radiances at few discrete wavelengths in the Huggins ozone absorption band (310-340 nm). Over the years, as the need for higher accuracy in measuring total ozone from space has increased, several improvements to the basic algorithms have been made. They include: better correction for the effects of aerosols and clouds, an improved method to account for the variation in shape of ozone profiles with season, latitude, and total ozone, and a multi-wavelength correction for remaining profile shape errors. These improvements have made it possible to retrieve total ozone with just 3 spectral channels of moderate spectral resolution (approx. 1 nm) with accuracy comparable to state-of-the-art spectral fitting algorithms like DOAS that require high spectral resolution measurements at large number of wavelengths. One of the deficiencies of the TOMS algorithm has been that it doesn't provide an error estimate. This is a particular problem in high latitudes when the profile shape errors become significant and vary with latitude, season, total ozone, and instrument viewing geometry. The primary objective of the TOMS V9 algorithm is to account for these effects in estimating the error bars. This is done by a straightforward implementation of the Rodgers optimum estimation method using a priori ozone profiles and their error covariances matrices constructed using Aura MLS and ozonesonde data. The algorithm produces a vertical ozone profile that contains 1-2.5 pieces of information (degrees of freedom of signal) depending upon solar zenith angle (SZA). The profile is integrated to obtain the total column. We provide information that shows the altitude range in which the profile is best determined by the measurements. One can use this information in data assimilation and analysis. A side

Effect of Small Numbers of Test Results on Accuracy of Hoek-Brown Strength Parameter Estimations: A Statistical Simulation Study

Science.gov (United States)

Bozorgzadeh, Nezam; Yanagimura, Yoko; Harrison, John P.

2017-12-01

The Hoek-Brown empirical strength criterion for intact rock is widely used as the basis for estimating the strength of rock masses. Estimations of the intact rock H-B parameters, namely the empirical constant m and the uniaxial compressive strength σc, are commonly obtained by fitting the criterion to triaxial strength data sets of small sample size. This paper investigates how such small sample sizes affect the uncertainty associated with the H-B parameter estimations. We use Monte Carlo (MC) simulation to generate data sets of different sizes and different combinations of H-B parameters, and then investigate the uncertainty in H-B parameters estimated from these limited data sets. We show that the uncertainties depend not only on the level of variability but also on the particular combination of parameters being investigated. As particular combinations of H-B parameters can informally be considered to represent specific rock types, we discuss that as the minimum number of required samples depends on rock type it should correspond to some acceptable level of uncertainty in the estimations. Also, a comparison of the results from our analysis with actual rock strength data shows that the probability of obtaining reliable strength parameter estimations using small samples may be very low. We further discuss the impact of this on ongoing implementation of reliability-based design protocols and conclude with suggestions for improvements in this respect.

Mitigation of naphthenate related production upsets in high TAN (Total Acid Number) crude oil

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ostojic, Nik [Maersk Oil, Copenhagen (Denmark); Vijn, Pieter; Reiners, Robert [Champion Technologies Europe BV, Delden (Netherlands)

2012-07-01

This paper describes a strategy for prediction, evaluation and mitigation of calcium naphthenate related production problems. Developing fields with acidic crude in the North Sea, West Africa, Bohai Bay (China) and Brazil is becoming more common in recent years. The high acid crude contains a considerable amount of naphthenic acids, typically having a Total Acid Number (TAN) higher than 0.5 mg KOH/g. Formation of either hard type 'calcium naphthenate precipitates' or soft type 'sodium carboxylate/emulsions' during crude oil production can lead to severe flow assurance and separation problems. In severe cases this may lead to production shutdowns to clean-up the equipment. A number of different naphthenate mitigation approaches have been published but no one particular approach is considered to be the most efficient as it depends significantly on the particular field conditions. Initially, this problem was addressed by deploying large volumes of (usually organic) acid, but more recently high efficiency low dose naphthenate inhibitors have been introduced. For predicting naphthenate scaling potential, methods were developed to determine the concentration of 1230 Dalton naphthenic tetra acid (ARN acids) in either deposit or crude oil and this information can be used to locate and potentially isolate the problem to a certain reservoir. Also, methods were developed to design suitable low dose naphthenate inhibitors. As these inhibitors are field tested, monitoring is required to ensure the product is performing most efficiently. In cases of tight emulsions however, this is less difficult as the oil dehydration and water quality is affected instantly. Methods were developed to allow monitoring of the calcium naphthenate deposition in field trails, thus allow trending and evaluation of the chemicals performance. After detailed analyses and discussions of the developed methods, a North Sea case history is presented reviewing several years of treating

Influence of Posture and Frequency Modes in Total Body Water Estimation Using Bioelectrical Impedance Spectroscopy in Boys and Adult Males

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Masaharu Kagawa

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The aim of the study was to examine differences in total body water (TBW measured using single-frequency (SF and multi-frequency (MF modes of bioelectrical impedance spectroscopy (BIS in children and adults measured in different postures using the deuterium (2H dilution technique as the reference. Twenty-three boys and 26 adult males underwent assessment of TBW using the dilution technique and BIS measured in supine and standing positions using two frequencies of the SF mode (50 kHz and 100 kHz and the MF mode. While TBW estimated from the MF mode was comparable, extra-cellular fluid (ECF and intra-cellular fluid (ICF values differed significantly (p < 0.01 between the different postures in both groups. In addition, while estimated TBW in adult males using the MF mode was significantly (p < 0.01 greater than the result from the dilution technique, TBW estimated using the SF mode and prediction equation was significantly (p < 0.01 lower in boys. Measurement posture may not affect estimation of TBW in boys and adult males, however, body fluid shifts may still occur. In addition, technical factors, including selection of prediction equation, may be important when TBW is estimated from measured impedance.

Cholera in Haiti: Reproductive numbers and vaccination coverage estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Mukandavire, Zindoga; Smith, David L.; Morris, J. Glenn, Jr.

2013-01-01

Cholera reappeared in Haiti in October, 2010 after decades of absence. Cases were first detected in Artibonite region and in the ensuing months the disease spread to every department in the country. The rate of increase in the number of cases at the start of epidemics provides valuable information about the basic reproductive number (). Quantitative analysis of such data gives useful information for planning and evaluating disease control interventions, including vaccination. Using a mathematical model, we fitted data on the cumulative number of reported hospitalized cholera cases in Haiti. varied by department, ranging from 1.06 to 2.63. At a national level, 46% vaccination coverage would result in an () cholera vaccines in endemic and non-endemic regions, our results suggest that moderate cholera vaccine coverage would be an important element of disease control in Haiti.

Best-Estimates in Bond Markets with Reinvestment Risk

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Anne MacKay

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The concept of best-estimate, prescribed by regulators to value insurance liabilities for accounting and solvency purposes, has recently been discussed extensively in the industry and related academic literature. To differentiate hedgeable and non-hedgeable risks in a general case, recent literature defines best-estimates using orthogonal projections of a claim on the space of replicable payoffs. In this paper, we apply this concept of best-estimate to long-maturity claims in a market with reinvestment risk, since in this case the total liability cannot easily be separated into hedgeable and non-hedgeable parts. We assume that a limited number of short-maturity bonds are traded, and derive the best-estimate price of bonds with longer maturities, thus obtaining a best-estimate yield curve. We therefore use the multifactor Vasiˇcek model and derive within this framework closed-form expressions for the best-estimate prices of long-term bonds.

Estimation of expected number of accidents and workforce unavailability through Bayesian population variability analysis and Markov-based model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chagas Moura, Márcio das; Azevedo, Rafael Valença; Droguett, Enrique López; Chaves, Leandro Rego; Lins, Isis Didier

2016-01-01

Occupational accidents pose several negative consequences to employees, employers, environment and people surrounding the locale where the accident takes place. Some types of accidents correspond to low frequency-high consequence (long sick leaves) events, and then classical statistical approaches are ineffective in these cases because the available dataset is generally sparse and contain censored recordings. In this context, we propose a Bayesian population variability method for the estimation of the distributions of the rates of accident and recovery. Given these distributions, a Markov-based model will be used to estimate the uncertainty over the expected number of accidents and the work time loss. Thus, the use of Bayesian analysis along with the Markov approach aims at investigating future trends regarding occupational accidents in a workplace as well as enabling a better management of the labor force and prevention efforts. One application example is presented in order to validate the proposed approach; this case uses available data gathered from a hydropower company in Brazil. - Highlights: • This paper proposes a Bayesian method to estimate rates of accident and recovery. • The model requires simple data likely to be available in the company database. • These results show the proposed model is not too sensitive to the prior estimates.

Predictors of clinical outcome in total hip and knee replacement : a methodological appraisal of implants and patient factors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Keurentjes, Johan Christiaan

2014-01-01

In this thesis, we studied both implants and patient and surgeon factors as predictors of clinical outcome after total hip and knee replacement. Additionally, we studied a number of methodological aspects of orthopaedic research, such as competing risks in estimating the probability of revision

Estimation of the number of aphids carrying Citrus tristeza virus that visit adult citrus trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Marroquín, Carlos; Olmos, Antonio; Teresa Gorris, María; Bertolini, Edson; Carmen Martínez, M; Carbonell, Emilio A; Hermoso de Mendoza, Alfonso; Cambra, Mariano

2004-03-01

Aphid species were counted on citrus trees in orchards in Valencia, Spain, in the spring and autumn of 1997, 1998 and 1999. Moericke yellow water traps, the 'sticky shoot' method and counts of established colonies were used in extensive surveys in which 29,502 aphids were recorded and identified. Aphis spiraecola and Aphis gossypii were the most abundant aphid species. The numbers of aphid species landing on mature trees of grapefruit, sweet orange, lemon and clementine and satsuma mandarins, were estimated by counting the numbers of young shoots/tree and aphids trapped on sticky shoots. The proportions of the different aphid species captured were: A. gossypii (53%), A. spiraecola (32%), Toxoptera aurantii (11%), Myzus persicae (1%), Aphis craccivora (1%) and other species (2%). Clementine was the most visited species with 266,700 aphids landing/tree in spring 2000, followed by lemon (147,000), sweet orange (129,150), grapefruit (103,200), and satsuma (92,400). The numbers and relative percentages of aphids carrying Citrus tristeza virus (CTV) were assessed by nested RT-PCR in single closed tubes and analysed by extraction of RNA-CTV targets from trapped aphids. An average of 37,190 CTV-carrying aphids visited each tree in spring 2000 (29 per shoot). The percentage detection of viral RNA in the aphid species that landed were 27% for A. gossypii, 23% for A. spiraecola and 19% for T. aurantii. This high incidence of aphids carrying CTV is consistent with the high prevalence and rapid spread of CTV in sweet orange, clementine, and satsuma mandarins in recent years in the region. The infection rate was proportional to the number of aphids landing/tree.

Homeless Mentally Ill: Problems and Options in Estimating Numbers and Trends. Report to the Chairman, Committee on Labor and Human Resources, U.S. Senate.

Science.gov (United States)

General Accounting Office, Washington, DC. Program Evaluation and Methodology Div.

In response to a request by the United States Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources, the General Accounting Office (GAO) examined the methodological soundness of current population estimates of the number of homeless chronically mentally ill persons, and proposed several options for estimating the size of this population. The GAO reviewed…

Use of surveillance data on HIV diagnoses with HIV-related symptoms to estimate the number of people living with undiagnosed HIV in need of antiretroviral therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lodwick, Rebecca K; Nakagawa, Fumiyo; van Sighem, Ard; Sabin, Caroline A; Phillips, Andrew N

2015-01-01

It is important to have methods available to estimate the number of people who have undiagnosed HIV and are in need of antiretroviral therapy (ART). The method uses the concept that a predictable level of occurrence of AIDS or other HIV-related clinical symptoms which lead to presentation for care, and hence diagnosis of HIV, arises in undiagnosed people with a given CD4 count. The method requires surveillance data on numbers of new HIV diagnoses with HIV-related symptoms, and the CD4 count at diagnosis. The CD4 count-specific rate at which HIV-related symptoms develop are estimated from cohort data. 95% confidence intervals can be constructed using a simple simulation method. For example, if there were 13 HIV diagnoses with HIV-related symptoms made in one year with CD4 count at diagnosis between 150-199 cells/mm3, then since the CD4 count-specific rate of HIV-related symptoms is estimated as 0.216 per person-year, the estimated number of person years lived in people with undiagnosed HIV with CD4 count 150-199 cells/mm3 is 13/0.216 = 60 (95% confidence interval: 29-100), which is considered an estimate of the number of people living with undiagnosed HIV in this CD4 count stratum. The method is straightforward to implement within a short period once a surveillance system of all new HIV diagnoses, collecting data on HIV-related symptoms at diagnosis, is in place and is most suitable for estimating the number of undiagnosed people with CD4 count HIV-related symptoms at higher CD4 counts. A potential source of bias is under-diagnosis and under-reporting of diagnoses with HIV-related symptoms. Although this method has limitations as with all approaches, it is important for prompting increased efforts to identify undiagnosed people, particularly those with low CD4 count, and for informing levels of unmet need for ART.

INTEGRATION OF SATELLITE RAINFALL DATA AND CURVE NUMBER METHOD FOR RUNOFF ESTIMATION UNDER SEMI-ARID WADI SYSTEM

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E. O. Adam

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The arid and semi-arid catchments in dry lands in general require a special effective management as the scarcity of resources and information which is needed to leverage studies and investigations is the common characteristic. Hydrology is one of the most important elements in the management of resources. Deep understanding of hydrological responses is the key towards better planning and land management. Surface runoff quantification of such ungauged semi-arid catchments considered among the important challenges. A 7586 km2 catchment under investigation is located in semi-arid region in central Sudan where mean annual rainfall is around 250 mm and represent the ultimate source for water supply. The objective is to parameterize hydrological characteristics of the catchment and estimate surface runoff using suitable methods and hydrological models that suit the nature of such ungauged catchments with scarce geospatial information. In order to produce spatial runoff estimations, satellite rainfall was used. Remote sensing and GIS were incorporated in the investigations and the generation of landcover and soil information. Five days rainfall event (50.2 mm was used for the SCS CN model which is considered the suitable for this catchment, as SCS curve number (CN method is widely used for estimating infiltration characteristics depending on the landcover and soil property. Runoff depths of 3.6, 15.7 and 29.7 mm were estimated for the three different Antecedent Moisture Conditions (AMC-I, AMC-II and AMC-III. The estimated runoff depths of AMCII and AMCIII indicate the possibility of having small artificial surface reservoirs that could provide water for domestic and small household agricultural use.

A simple method to estimate the episode and programme sensitivity of breast cancer screening programmes.

Science.gov (United States)

Zorzi, Manuel; Guzzinati, Stefano; Puliti, Donella; Paci, Eugenio

2010-01-01

The estimation of breast cancer screening sensitivity is a major aim in the quality assessment of screening programmes. The proportional incidence method for the estimation of the sensitivity of breast cancer screening programmes is rarely used to estimate the underlying incidence rates. We present a method to estimate episode and programme sensitivity of screening programmes, based solely on cancers detected within screening cycles (excluding breast cancer cases at prevalent screening round) and on the number of incident cases in the total target population (steady state). The assumptions, strengths and limitations of the method are discussed. An example of calculation of episode and programme sensitivities is given, on the basis of the data from the IMPACT study, a large observational study of breast cancer screening programmes in Italy. The programme sensitivity from the fifth year of screening onwards ranged between 41% and 48% of the total number of cases in the target population. At steady state episode sensitivity was 0.70, with a trend across age groups, with lowest values in women aged 50-54 years (0.52) and highest in those 65-69 (0.77). The method is a very serviceable tool for estimating sensitivity in service screening programmes, and the results are comparable with those of other methods of estimation.

Inverse odds ratio-weighted estimation for causal mediation analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J

2013-11-20

An important scientific goal of studies in the health and social sciences is increasingly to determine to what extent the total effect of a point exposure is mediated by an intermediate variable on the causal pathway between the exposure and the outcome. A causal framework has recently been proposed for mediation analysis, which gives rise to new definitions, formal identification results and novel estimators of direct and indirect effects. In the present paper, the author describes a new inverse odds ratio-weighted approach to estimate so-called natural direct and indirect effects. The approach, which uses as a weight the inverse of an estimate of the odds ratio function relating the exposure and the mediator, is universal in that it can be used to decompose total effects in a number of regression models commonly used in practice. Specifically, the approach may be used for effect decomposition in generalized linear models with a nonlinear link function, and in a number of other commonly used models such as the Cox proportional hazards regression for a survival outcome. The approach is simple and can be implemented in standard software provided a weight can be specified for each observation. An additional advantage of the method is that it easily incorporates multiple mediators of a categorical, discrete or continuous nature. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Total hip arthroplasty in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Alma Becic; Johnsen, Søren Paaske; Overgaard, Søren

2005-01-01

The annual number of total hip arthroplasties (THA) has increased in Denmark over the past 15 years. There is, however, limited detailed data available on the incidence of THAs.......The annual number of total hip arthroplasties (THA) has increased in Denmark over the past 15 years. There is, however, limited detailed data available on the incidence of THAs....

Federal Regulations: Efforts to Estimate Total Costs and Benefits of Rules

Science.gov (United States)

2004-04-07

the Chamber of Commerce , academicians, the media, and others, and is sometimes cited with a high degree of certainty ." For example, some articles...House of Representatives, Feb . 25,2004; and testimony of William P . Kovacs, Vice President, U .S. Chamber of Commerce , before the Subcommittee on Energy...estimated the annual cost to employers of the Family and Medical Leave Act at $825 million, but that the Chamber of Commerce estimated the cost at between $3

Biological radiation dose estimation by chromosomal aberrations analysis in human peripheral blood (dose- effect curve)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Al Achkar, W.

2002-01-01

In order to draw a dose-effect curve, blood from eight healthy people were studied. Samples were irradiated in tubes with 0.15-2.5 gray of gamma ray.Irradiated and control samples were incubated for cell cultures. Chromosomal aberrations from 67888 metaphases were scored. Curves from the total number of dicentrics, dicentrics+ rings and total numbers of breaks were drawn. The yield of chromosome aberrations is related to the dose used. These curves give a quick useful estimation of the accidentally radiation exposure. (author)

an approach to estimate total dissolved solids in groundwater using

African Journals Online (AJOL)

resistivities of the aquifer delineated were subsequently used to estimate TDS in groundwater which was correlated with those ... the concentrations of these chemical constituents in the ..... TDS determined by water analysis varied between 17.

A Comparative Study Of Source Location And Depth Estimates From ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... the analytic signal amplitude (ASA) and the local wave number (LWN) of the total intensity magnetic field. In this study, a synthetic magnetic field due to four buried dipoles was analysed to show that estimates of source location and depth can be improved significantly by reducing the data to the pole prior to the application ...

Markers for total consumption estimate of penned holstein x zebu heifers Indicadores para estimativa de consumo total por novilhas holandês x zebu mantidas em confinamento

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luiz Januário Magalhães Aroeira

2010-09-01

Full Text Available It was aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the internal markers: indigestible fibers (FDAi and FDNi, lignin Klason and the external markers: chromic oxide and modified enriched hidroxiphenilpropan LIPE® on the total intake estimates of penned crossbreed heifers (Holstein x Zebu. They´re assigned to four diets: elephant grass (Pennisetum purpureum Schum. silage; elephant grass silage and commercial concentrate; chopped sugar cane and urea; chopped sugar cane, urea and commercial concentrate. The chromic oxide underestimated the heifers consumption of all diets and its estimates differed from either hod consumption or those obtained with markers. LIPE® may replace chromic oxide because its consumption estimates did not differ from hod consumption of all diets. The lignin Klason showed to be more appropriate to estimate the heifers consumption that were fed with diets based on grass silage than those heifers fed with sugarcane. This marker underestimated the consumption of heifers that received sugarcane and urea (3,57kg/day of MS when it was compared to the consumption registered in hod (4,05kg/day of MS, however, for those heifers that received sugarcane, urea and supply, lignin Klason underestimated the consumption (3,90kg/day of MS, so that, it differed form consumption in hod (4,90kg/day of MS. The indigestible fibers (FDAi and FDNi were suitable to estimate the heifers consumption in all diets. Those results showed that markers present differentiated effect according to the roughage used.Objetivou-se avaliar a eficácia dos indicadores internos: fibras indigestíveis (FDAi e FDNi e lignina Klason e os indicadores externos: óxido crômico e hidroxifenilpropano enriquecido e modificado LIPE® nas estimativas de consumo total de novilhas mestiças Holandês x Zebu, mantidas em confinamento e submetidas a quatro dietas: silagem de capim elefante (Pennisetum purpureum Schum.; silagem de capim elefante e concentrado comercial; cana

Total, accessible and reserve wind energy resources in Bulgaria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ivanov, P.; Trifonova, L.

1996-01-01

The article is a part of the international project 'Bulgaria Country Study to Address Climate Change Inventory of the Greenhouse Gases Emission and Sinks Alternative Energy Balance and Technology Programs' sponsored by the Department of Energy, US. The 'total' average annual wind resources in Bulgaria determined on the basis wind velocity density for more than 100 meteorological stations are estimated on 125 000 TWh. For the whole territory the theoretical wind power potential is about 14200 GW. The 'accessible' wind resources are estimated on about 62000 TWh. The 'reserve' (or usable) wind resources are determined using 8 velocity intervals for WECS (Wind Energy Conversion Systems) operation, number and disposition of turbines, and the usable (3%) part of the territory. The annual reserve resources are estimated at about 21 - 33 TWh. The 'economically beneficial' wind resources (EBWR) are those part of the reserve resources which could be included in the country energy balance using specific technologies in specific time period. It is foreseen that at year 2010 the EBWR could reach 0.028 TWh. 7 refs., 2 tabs., 1 fig

Number of discernible object colors is a conundrum.

Science.gov (United States)

Masaoka, Kenichiro; Berns, Roy S; Fairchild, Mark D; Moghareh Abed, Farhad

2013-02-01

Widely varying estimates of the number of discernible object colors have been made by using various methods over the past 100 years. To clarify the source of the discrepancies in the previous, inconsistent estimates, the number of discernible object colors is estimated over a wide range of color temperatures and illuminance levels using several chromatic adaptation models, color spaces, and color difference limens. Efficient and accurate models are used to compute optimal-color solids and count the number of discernible colors. A comprehensive simulation reveals limitations in the ability of current color appearance models to estimate the number of discernible colors even if the color solid is smaller than the optimal-color solid. The estimates depend on the color appearance model, color space, and color difference limen used. The fundamental problem lies in the von Kries-type chromatic adaptation transforms, which have an unknown effect on the ranking of the number of discernible colors at different color temperatures.

The basic reproduction number (R0) of measles: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Guerra, Fiona M; Bolotin, Shelly; Lim, Gillian; Heffernan, Jane; Deeks, Shelley L; Li, Ye; Crowcroft, Natasha S

2017-12-01

The basic reproduction number, R nought (R 0 ), is defined as the average number of secondary cases of an infectious disease arising from a typical case in a totally susceptible population, and can be estimated in populations if pre-existing immunity can be accounted for in the calculation. R 0 determines the herd immunity threshold and therefore the immunisation coverage required to achieve elimination of an infectious disease. As R 0 increases, higher immunisation coverage is required to achieve herd immunity. In July, 2010, a panel of experts convened by WHO concluded that measles can and should be eradicated. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, regions have had varying success in measles control, in part because measles is one of the most contagious infections. For measles, R 0 is often cited to be 12-18, which means that each person with measles would, on average, infect 12-18 other people in a totally susceptible population. We did a systematic review to find studies reporting rigorous estimates and determinants of measles R 0 . Studies were included if they were a primary source of R 0 , addressed pre-existing immunity, and accounted for pre-existing immunity in their calculation of R 0 . A search of key databases was done in January, 2015, and repeated in November, 2016, and yielded 10 883 unique citations. After screening for relevancy and quality, 18 studies met inclusion criteria, providing 58 R 0 estimates. We calculated median measles R 0 values stratified by key covariates. We found that R 0 estimates vary more than the often cited range of 12-18. Our results highlight the importance of countries calculating R 0 using locally derived data or, if this is not possible, using parameter estimates from similar settings. Additional data and agreed review methods are needed to strengthen the evidence base for measles elimination modelling. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization of Lorenz number with Seebeck coefficient measurement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Hyun-Sik; Gibbs, Zachary M.; Tang, Yinglu; Wang, Heng; Snyder, G. Jeffrey

2015-01-01

In analyzing zT improvements due to lattice thermal conductivity (κ L ) reduction, electrical conductivity (σ) and total thermal conductivity (κ Total ) are often used to estimate the electronic component of the thermal conductivity (κ E ) and in turn κ L from κ L = ∼ κ Total − LσT. The Wiedemann-Franz law, κ E = LσT, where L is Lorenz number, is widely used to estimate κ E from σ measurements. It is a common practice to treat L as a universal factor with 2.44 × 10 −8 WΩK −2 (degenerate limit). However, significant deviations from the degenerate limit (approximately 40% or more for Kane bands) are known to occur for non-degenerate semiconductors where L converges to 1.5 × 10 −8 WΩK −2 for acoustic phonon scattering. The decrease in L is correlated with an increase in thermopower (absolute value of Seebeck coefficient (S)). Thus, a first order correction to the degenerate limit of L can be based on the measured thermopower, |S|, independent of temperature or doping. We propose the equation: L=1.5+exp[−(|S|)/(116) ] (where L is in 10 −8 WΩK −2 and S in μV/K) as a satisfactory approximation for L. This equation is accurate within 5% for single parabolic band/acoustic phonon scattering assumption and within 20% for PbSe, PbS, PbTe, Si 0.8 Ge 0.2 where more complexity is introduced, such as non-parabolic Kane bands, multiple bands, and/or alternate scattering mechanisms. The use of this equation for L rather than a constant value (when detailed band structure and scattering mechanism is not known) will significantly improve the estimation of lattice thermal conductivity

Casein Supplementation Does Not Affect the Estimates of True Total Tract Digestibility of Phosphorus in Soybean Meal for Growing Pigs Determined by the Regression Method

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J. B. Liu

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Forty-eight barrows with an average initial body weight of 25.5±0.3 kg were assigned to 6 dietary treatments arranged in a 3×2 factorial of 3 graded levels of P at 1.42, 2.07, or 2.72 g/kg, and 2 levels of casein at 0 or 50 g/kg to compare the estimates of true total tract digestibility (TTTD of P in soybean meal (SBM for pigs fed diets with or without casein supplementation. The SBM is the only source of P in diets without casein, and in the diet with added casein, 1.0 to 2.4 g/kg of total dietary P was supplied by SBM as dietary level of SBM increased. The experiment consisted of a 5-d adjustment period and a 5-d total collection period with ferric oxide as a maker to indicate the initiation and termination of fecal collection. There were interactive effects of casein supplementation and total dietary P level on the apparent total tract digestibility (ATTD and retention of P (p0.05. In summary, our results demonstrate that the estimates of TTTD of P in SBM for pigs were not affected by constant casein inclusion in the basal diets.

Addressing HCV infection in Europe: reported, estimated and undiagnosed cases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Merkinaite, Simona; Lazarus, Jeff; Gore, Charles

2008-01-01

. At present, it is the most common cause of chronic liver disease and liver transplantation in a number of countries, with an estimated 250,000 people dying annually from HCV-related causes. Despite the magnitude of the problem, the virus does not receive adequate attention from either the general public...... or from health policy-makers. This study assesses HCV prevalence from both estimated totals and undiagnosed cases in selected European countries. Secondary sources were assessed and experts in 17 European countries were interviewed about HCV prevalence, reporting strategies and transmission. Available...

Estimating the Number of Heterosexual Persons in the United States to Calculate National Rates of HIV Infection.

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Amy Lansky

Full Text Available This study estimated the proportions and numbers of heterosexuals in the United States (U.S. to calculate rates of heterosexually acquired human immunodeficiency virus (HIV infection. Quantifying the burden of disease can inform effective prevention planning and resource allocation.Heterosexuals were defined as males and females who ever had sex with an opposite-sex partner and excluded those with other HIV risks: persons who ever injected drugs and males who ever had sex with another man. We conducted meta-analysis using data from 3 national probability surveys that measured lifetime (ever sexual activity and injection drug use among persons aged 15 years and older to estimate the proportion of heterosexuals in the United States population. We then applied the proportion of heterosexual persons to census data to produce population size estimates. National HIV infection rates among heterosexuals were calculated using surveillance data (cases attributable to heterosexual contact in the numerators and the heterosexual population size estimates in the denominators.Adult and adolescent heterosexuals comprised an estimated 86.7% (95% confidence interval: 84.1%-89.3% of the U.S. population. The estimate for males was 84.1% (CI: 81.2%-86.9% and for females was 89.4% (95% CI: 86.9%-91.8%. The HIV diagnosis rate for 2013 was 5.2 per 100,000 heterosexuals and the rate of persons living with diagnosed HIV infection in 2012 was 104 per 100,000 heterosexuals aged 13 years or older. Rates of HIV infection were >20 times as high among black heterosexuals compared to white heterosexuals, indicating considerable disparity. Rates among heterosexual men demonstrated higher disparities than overall population rates for men.The best available data must be used to guide decision-making for HIV prevention. HIV rates among heterosexuals in the U.S. are important additions to cost effectiveness and other data used to make critical decisions about resources for

Estimation of effective doses in pediatric X-ray computed tomography examination.

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Obara, Hideki; Takahashi, Midori; Kudou, Kazuya; Mariya, Yasushi; Takai, Yoshihiro; Kashiwakura, Ikuo

2017-11-01

X-ray computed tomography (CT) images are used for diagnostic and therapeutic purposes in various medical disciplines. In Japan, the number of facilities that own diagnostic CT equipment, the number of CT examinations and the number of CT scanners increased by ~1.4-fold between 2005 and 2011. CT operators (medical radiological technologists, medical physicists and physicians) must understand the effective doses for examinations at their own institutions and carefully approach each examination. In addition, the patients undergoing the examination (as well as his/her family) must understand the effective dose of each examination in the context of the cumulative dose. In the present study, the numbers of pediatric patients (aged 0-5 years) and total patients who underwent CT at Hirosaki University Hospital (Hirosaki, Japan) between January 2011 and December 2013 were surveyed, and effective doses administered to children aged 0, 1 and 5 years were evaluated. Age- and region-specific conversion factors and dose-length products obtained from the CT scanner were used to estimate the effective doses. The numbers of CT examinations performed in 2011, 2012 and 2013 were 16,662, 17,491 and 17,649, respectively, of which 613 (1.2%) of the overall total involved children aged 0-5 years. The estimated effective doses per examination to children aged 0, 1 and 5 years were 6.3±4.8, 4.9±3.8 and 2.7±3.0 mSv, respectively. This large variation was attributed to several factors associated with scan methods and ranges in actual setting. In conclusion, the requirement for individual patient prospective exposure management systems and estimations of low-dose radiation exposure should be considered in light of the harmful effects of exposure.

The number of repeated observations needed to estimate the habitual physical activity of an individual to a given level of precision.

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Patrick Bergman

Full Text Available Physical activity behavior varies naturally from day to day, from week to week and even across seasons. In order to assess the habitual level of physical activity of a person, the person must be monitored for long enough so that the level can be identified, taking into account this natural within-person variation. An important question, and one whose answer has implications for study- and survey design, epidemiological research and population surveillance, is, for how long does an individual need to be monitored before such a habitual level or pattern can be identified to a desired level of precision? The aim of this study was to estimate the number of repeated observations needed to identify the habitual physical activity behaviour of an individual to a given degree of precision. A convenience sample of 50 Swedish adults wore accelerometers during four consecutive weeks. The number of days needed to come within 5-50% of an individual's usual physical activity 95% of the time was calculated. To get an idea of the uncertainty of the estimates all statistical estimates were bootstrapped 2000 times. The mean number of days of measurement needed for the observation to, with 95% confidence, be within 20% of the habitual physical activity of an individual is highest for vigorous physical activity, for which 182 days are needed. For sedentary behaviour the equivalent number of days is 2.4. To capture 80% of the sample to within ±20% of their habitual level of physical activity, 3.4 days is needed if sedentary behavior is the outcome of interest, and 34.8 days for MVPA. The present study shows that for analyses requiring accurate data at the individual level a longer measurement collection period than the traditional 7-day protocol should be used. In addition, the amount of MVPA was negatively associated with the number of days required to identify the habitual physical activity level indicating that the least active are also those whose habitual

Reverse-total shoulder arthroplasty cost-effectiveness: A quality-adjusted life years comparison with total hip arthroplasty.

Science.gov (United States)

Bachman, Daniel; Nyland, John; Krupp, Ryan

2016-02-18

To compare reverse-total shoulder arthroplasty (RSA) cost-effectiveness with total hip arthroplasty cost-effectiveness. This study used a stochastic model and decision-making algorithm to compare the cost-effectiveness of RSA and total hip arthroplasty. Fifteen patients underwent pre-operative, and 3, 6, and 12 mo post-operative clinical examinations and Short Form-36 Health Survey completion. Short form-36 Health Survey subscale scores were converted to EuroQual Group Five Dimension Health Outcome scores and compared with historical data from age-matched patients who had undergone total hip arthroplasty. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) improvements based on life expectancies were calculated. The cost/QALY was $3900 for total hip arthroplasty and $11100 for RSA. After adjusting the model to only include shoulder-specific physical function subscale items, the RSA QALY improved to 2.8 years, and its cost/QALY decreased to $8100. Based on industry accepted standards, cost/QALY estimates supported both RSA and total hip arthroplasty cost-effectiveness. Although total hip arthroplasty remains the quality of life improvement "gold standard" among arthroplasty procedures, cost/QALY estimates identified in this study support the growing use of RSA to improve patient quality of life.

Estimating distribution of hidden objects with drones: from tennis balls to manatees.

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Julien Martin

Full Text Available Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV, or drones, have been used widely in military applications, but more recently civilian applications have emerged (e.g., wildlife population monitoring, traffic monitoring, law enforcement, oil and gas pipeline threat detection. UAV can have several advantages over manned aircraft for wildlife surveys, including reduced ecological footprint, increased safety, and the ability to collect high-resolution geo-referenced imagery that can document the presence of species without the use of a human observer. We illustrate how geo-referenced data collected with UAV technology in combination with recently developed statistical models can improve our ability to estimate the distribution of organisms. To demonstrate the efficacy of this methodology, we conducted an experiment in which tennis balls were used as surrogates of organisms to be surveyed. We used a UAV to collect images of an experimental field with a known number of tennis balls, each of which had a certain probability of being hidden. We then applied spatially explicit occupancy models to estimate the number of balls and created precise distribution maps. We conducted three consecutive surveys over the experimental field and estimated the total number of balls to be 328 (95%CI: 312, 348. The true number was 329 balls, but simple counts based on the UAV pictures would have led to a total maximum count of 284. The distribution of the balls in the field followed a simulated environmental gradient. We also were able to accurately estimate the relationship between the gradient and the distribution of balls. Our experiment demonstrates how this technology can be used to create precise distribution maps in which discrete regions of the study area are assigned a probability of presence of an object. Finally, we discuss the applicability and relevance of this experimental study to the case study of Florida manatee distribution at power plants.

Estimating distribution of hidden objects with drones: from tennis balls to manatees.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Julien; Edwards, Holly H; Burgess, Matthew A; Percival, H Franklin; Fagan, Daniel E; Gardner, Beth E; Ortega-Ortiz, Joel G; Ifju, Peter G; Evers, Brandon S; Rambo, Thomas J

2012-01-01

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), or drones, have been used widely in military applications, but more recently civilian applications have emerged (e.g., wildlife population monitoring, traffic monitoring, law enforcement, oil and gas pipeline threat detection). UAV can have several advantages over manned aircraft for wildlife surveys, including reduced ecological footprint, increased safety, and the ability to collect high-resolution geo-referenced imagery that can document the presence of species without the use of a human observer. We illustrate how geo-referenced data collected with UAV technology in combination with recently developed statistical models can improve our ability to estimate the distribution of organisms. To demonstrate the efficacy of this methodology, we conducted an experiment in which tennis balls were used as surrogates of organisms to be surveyed. We used a UAV to collect images of an experimental field with a known number of tennis balls, each of which had a certain probability of being hidden. We then applied spatially explicit occupancy models to estimate the number of balls and created precise distribution maps. We conducted three consecutive surveys over the experimental field and estimated the total number of balls to be 328 (95%CI: 312, 348). The true number was 329 balls, but simple counts based on the UAV pictures would have led to a total maximum count of 284. The distribution of the balls in the field followed a simulated environmental gradient. We also were able to accurately estimate the relationship between the gradient and the distribution of balls. Our experiment demonstrates how this technology can be used to create precise distribution maps in which discrete regions of the study area are assigned a probability of presence of an object. Finally, we discuss the applicability and relevance of this experimental study to the case study of Florida manatee distribution at power plants.

Impact of work-related cancers in Taiwan-Estimation with QALY (quality-adjusted life year) and healthcare costs.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Lukas Jyuhn-Hsiarn; Lin, Cheng-Kuan; Hung, Mei-Chuan; Wang, Jung-Der

2016-12-01

This study estimates the annual numbers of eight work-related cancers, total losses of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and lifetime healthcare expenditures that possibly could be saved by improving occupational health in Taiwan. Three databases were interlinked: the Taiwan Cancer Registry, the National Mortality Registry, and the National Health Insurance Research Database. Annual numbers of work-related cancers were estimated based on attributable fractions (AFs) abstracted from a literature review. The survival functions for eight cancers were estimated and extrapolated to lifetime using a semi-parametric method. A convenience sample of 8846 measurements of patients' quality of life with EQ-5D was collected for utility values and multiplied by survival functions to estimate quality-adjusted life expectancies (QALEs). The loss-of-QALE was obtained by subtracting the QALE of cancer from age- and sex-matched referents simulated from national vital statistics. The lifetime healthcare expenditures were estimated by multiplying the survival probability with mean monthly costs paid by the National Health Insurance for cancer diagnosis and treatment and summing this for the expected lifetime. A total of 3010 males and 726 females with eight work-related cancers were estimated in 2010. Among them, lung cancer ranked first in terms of QALY loss, with an annual total loss-of-QALE of 28,463 QALYs and total lifetime healthcare expenditures of US$36.6 million. Successful prevention of eight work-related cancers would not only avoid the occurrence of 3736 cases of cancer, but would also save more than US$70 million in healthcare costs and 46,750 QALYs for the Taiwan society in 2010.

Application of particle size distributions to total particulate stack samples to estimate PM2.5 and PM10 emission factors for agricultural sources

Science.gov (United States)

Particle size distributions (PSD) have long been used to more accurately estimate the PM10 fraction of total particulate matter (PM) stack samples taken from agricultural sources. These PSD analyses were typically conducted using a Coulter Counter with 50 micrometer aperture tube. With recent increa...

Estimation of reproduction number and non stationary spectral analysis of dengue epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Enduri, Murali Krishna; Jolad, Shivakumar

2017-06-01

In this work we analyze the post monsoon Dengue outbreaks by analyzing the transient and long term dynamics of Dengue incidences and its environmental correlates in Ahmedabad city in western India from 2005 to 2012. We calculate the reproduction number R p using the growth rate of post monsoon Dengue outbreaks and biological parameters like host and vector incubation periods and vector mortality rate, and its uncertainties are estimated through Monte-Carlo simulations by sampling parameters from their respective probability distributions. Reduction in Female Aedes mosquito density required for an effective prevention of Dengue outbreaks is also calculated. The non stationary pattern of Dengue incidences and its climatic correlates like rainfall temperature is analyzed through Wavelet based methods. We find that the mean time lag between peak of monsoon and Dengue is 9 weeks. Monsoon and Dengue cases are phase locked from 2008 to 2012 in the 16 to maintain consistency make it "16 to 32" 32 weeks band. The duration of post monsoon outbreak has been increasing every year, especially post 2008, even though the intensity and duration of monsoon has been decreasing. Temperature and Dengue incidences show correlations in the same band, but phase lock is not stationary. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Numerosity estimates for attended and unattended items in visual search.

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Kelley, Troy D; Cassenti, Daniel N; Marusich, Laura R; Ghirardelli, Thomas G

2017-07-01

The goal of this research was to examine memories created for the number of items during a visual search task. Participants performed a visual search task for a target defined by a single feature (Experiment 1A), by a conjunction of features (Experiment 1B), or by a specific spatial configuration of features (Experiment 1C). On some trials following the search task, subjects were asked to recall the total number of items in the previous display. In all search types, participants underestimated the total number of items, but the severity of the underestimation varied depending on the efficiency of the search. In three follow-up studies (Experiments 2A, 2B, and 2C) using the same visual stimuli, the participants' only task was to estimate the number of items on each screen. Participants still underestimated the numerosity of the items, although the degree of underestimation was smaller than in the search tasks and did not depend on the type of visual stimuli. In Experiment 3, participants were asked to recall the number of items in a display only once. Subjects still displayed a tendency to underestimate, indicating that the underestimation effects seen in Experiments 1A-1C were not attributable to knowledge of the estimation task. The degree of underestimation depends on the efficiency of the search task, with more severe underestimation in efficient search tasks. This suggests that the lower attentional demands of very efficient searches leads to less encoding of numerosity of the distractor set.

Higher-order Nielsen numbers

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Saveliev Peter

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Suppose , are manifolds, are maps. The well-known coincidence problem studies the coincidence set . The number is called the codimension of the problem. More general is the preimage problem. For a map and a submanifold of , it studies the preimage set , and the codimension is . In case of codimension , the classical Nielsen number is a lower estimate of the number of points in changing under homotopies of , and for an arbitrary codimension, of the number of components of . We extend this theory to take into account other topological characteristics of . The goal is to find a "lower estimate" of the bordism group of . The answer is the Nielsen group defined as follows. In the classical definition, the Nielsen equivalence of points of based on paths is replaced with an equivalence of singular submanifolds of based on bordisms. We let , then the Nielsen group of order is the part of preserved under homotopies of . The Nielsen number of order is the rank of this group (then . These numbers are new obstructions to removability of coincidences and preimages. Some examples and computations are provided.

Estimation of walrus populations on sea ice with infrared imagery and aerial photography

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Udevitz, M.S.; Burn, D.M.; Webber, M.A.

2008-01-01

Population sizes of ice-associated pinnipeds have often been estimated with visual or photographic aerial surveys, but these methods require relatively slow speeds and low altitudes, limiting the area they can cover. Recent developments in infrared imagery and its integration with digital photography could allow substantially larger areas to be surveyed and more accurate enumeration of individuals, thereby solving major problems with previous survey methods. We conducted a trial survey in April 2003 to estimate the number of Pacific walruses (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) hauled out on sea ice around St. Lawrence Island, Alaska. The survey used high altitude infrared imagery to detect groups of walruses on strip transects. Low altitude digital photography was used to determine the number of walruses in a sample of detected groups and calibrate the infrared imagery for estimating the total number of walruses. We propose a survey design incorporating this approach with satellite radio telemetry to estimate the proportion of the population in the water and additional low-level flights to estimate the proportion of the hauled-out population in groups too small to be detected in the infrared imagery. We believe that this approach offers the potential for obtaining reliable population estimates for walruses and other ice-associated pinnipeds. ?? 2007 by the Society for Marine Mammalogy.

Dependence of J/ψ suppression in heavy ion collisions on total transverse energy, nucleon numbers and J/ψ transverse momentum

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ftacnik, J.; Lichard, P.

1989-01-01

We present a set of semiquantitative predictions for the behaviour of J/ψ suppression in heavy ion collisions as a function of the total transverse energy, nucleon numbers of colliding ions and the J/ψ transverse momentum. These predictions are based on the assumption that all of J/ψ suppression is due to J/ψ and χ disintegrations in collisions with hadrons in a dense hadronic gas formed in the heavy ion collisions. The hydrodynamic evolution of the hadron gas is taken into account. The onset of the quark-gluon plasma formation should manifest itself by clear qualitative deviations from J/ψ suppression calculated in this way, in particular as thresholds or kinks in the E T -dependence, or as a threshold for J/ψ suppression as a function of the atomic number of the target, expected at Cu or below. (orig.)

Refractometric total protein concentrations in icteric serum from dogs.

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Gupta, Aradhana; Stockham, Steven L

2014-01-01

To determine whether high serum bilirubin concentrations interfere with the measurement of serum total protein concentration by refractometry and to assess potential biases among refractometer measurements. Evaluation study. Sera from 2 healthy Greyhounds. Bilirubin was dissolved in 0.1M NaOH, and the resulting solution was mixed with sera from 2 dogs from which food had been withheld to achieve various bilirubin concentrations up to 40 mg/dL. Refractometric total protein concentrations were estimated with 3 clinical refractometers. A biochemical analyzer was used to measure biuret assay-based total protein and bilirubin concentrations with spectrophotometric assays. No interference with refractometric measurement of total protein concentrations was detected with bilirubin concentrations up to 41.5 mg/dL. Biases in refractometric total protein concentrations were detected and were related to the conversion of refractive index values to total protein concentrations. Hyperbilirubinemia did not interfere with the refractometric estimation of serum total protein concentration. The agreement among total protein concentrations estimated by 3 refractometers was dependent on the method of conversion of refractive index to total protein concentration and was independent of hyperbilirubinemia.

Extant diversity and estimated number of Gracillariidae (Lepidoptera species yet to be discovered in the Neotropical region

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Rosângela Brito

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Gracillariidae (Lepidoptera are commonly known by the leaf miner habit found in the larval stage of most species. By using worldwide, public databases on species diversity and DNA sequences available for extant gracillariid species, we determined changes in the rate of taxonomic species descriptions through time, mapped their spatial distributions, examined their phylogenetic diversification, and estimated the number of species yet to be described for the family in the Neotropics. We recovered 185 species, a number that is smaller than that found in any other biogeographic region. However, it was estimated that at least 3875 additional species remain to be described in the region. Phylogenetic diversification showed a pattern of expanding diversity. A few entomologists have been involved with gracillariid taxonomy in the Neotropics, having 39% of the species been described by a single taxonomist. In most of such cases, descriptions were based on the adults only. A few species have been described from biomes known to have some of the greatest diversity on earth, such as the Atlantic Forest. Thus, such a scenario results from low sampling and scarce taxonomic activity that has prevailed for this family of moths in the Neotropics. It may also be associated with their small body size and to the fact that gracillariids do not seem to be attracted to light traps as much as other moths, which make their collection and identification by non experts difficult. We also suggested scientific and political actions that could be adopted to overcome such an unfavorable scenario.

Rocket Based Combined Cycle Exchange Inlet Performance Estimation at Supersonic Speeds

Science.gov (United States)

Murzionak, Aliaksandr

A method to estimate the performance of an exchange inlet for a Rocket Based Combined Cycle engine is developed. This method is to be used for exchange inlet geometry optimization and as such should be able to predict properties that can be used in the design process within a reasonable amount of time to allow multiple configurations to be evaluated. The method is based on a curve fit of the shocks developed around the major components of the inlet using solutions for shocks around sharp cones and 2D estimations of the shocks around wedges with blunt leading edges. The total pressure drop across the estimated shocks as well as the mass flow rate through the exchange inlet are calculated. The estimations for a selected range of free-stream Mach numbers between 1.1 and 7 are compared against numerical finite volume method simulations which were performed using available commercial software (Ansys-CFX). The total pressure difference between the two methods is within 10% for the tested Mach numbers of 5 and below, while for the Mach 7 test case the difference is 30%. The mass flow rate on average differs by less than 5% for all tested cases with the maximum difference not exceeding 10%. The estimation method takes less than 3 seconds on 3.0 GHz single core processor to complete the calculations for a single flight condition as oppose to over 5 days on 8 cores at 2.4 GHz system while using 3D finite volume method simulation with 1.5 million elements mesh. This makes the estimation method suitable for the use with exchange inlet geometry optimization algorithm.

Estimating the cost to U.S. health departments to conduct HIV surveillance.

Science.gov (United States)

Shrestha, Ram K; Sansom, Stephanie L; Laffoon, Benjamin T; Farnham, Paul G; Shouse, R Luke; MacMaster, Karen; Hall, H Irene

2014-01-01

HIV case surveillance is a primary source of information for monitoring HIV burden in the United States and guiding the allocation of prevention and treatment funds. While the number of people living with HIV and the need for surveillance data have increased, little is known about the cost of surveillance. We estimated the economic cost to health departments of conducting high-quality HIV case surveillance. We collected primary data on the unit cost and quantity of resources used to operate the HIV case surveillance program in Michigan, where HIV burden (i.e., the number of HIV cases) is moderate to high (n=14,864 cases). Based on Michigan's data, we projected the expected annual HIV surveillance cost for U.S., state, local, and territorial health departments. We based our cost projection on the variation in the number of new and established cases, area-specific wages, and potential economies of scale. We estimated the annual total HIV surveillance cost to the Michigan health department to be $1,286,524 ($87/case), the annual total cost of new cases to be $108,657 ($133/case), and the annual total cost of established cases to be $1,177,867 ($84/case). Our projected median annual HIV surveillance cost per health department ranged from $210,600 in low-HIV burden sites to $1,835,000 in high-HIV burden sites. Our analysis shows that a systematic approach to costing HIV surveillance at the health department level is feasible. For HIV surveillance, a substantial portion of total surveillance costs is attributable to maintaining established cases.

Total evaporation estimates from a Renosterveld and dryland wheat ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2010-07-09

Jul 9, 2010 ... 1 CSIR Natural Resources and the Environment, PO Box 320 Stellenbosch 7599, South ... A change in land use from Renosterveld to dryland annual crops could therefore affect the soil .... Modelling total evaporation spatially: Surface Energy ..... similar, with ETo's ranging between 1.8 mm∙d-1 (on a cloudy/.

On the number of eigenvalues of the discrete one-dimensional Dirac operator with a complex potential

Science.gov (United States)

Hulko, Artem

2018-03-01

In this paper we define a one-dimensional discrete Dirac operator on Z . We study the eigenvalues of the Dirac operator with a complex potential. We obtain bounds on the total number of eigenvalues in the case where V decays exponentially at infinity. We also estimate the number of eigenvalues for the discrete Schrödinger operator with complex potential on Z . That is we extend the result obtained by Hulko (Bull Math Sci, to appear) to the whole Z.

Estimation of basic reproduction number of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) during the outbreak in South Korea, 2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Hyuk-Jun

2017-06-13

In South Korea, an outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) occurred in 2015. It was the second largest MERS outbreak. As a result of the outbreak in South Korea, 186 infections were reported, and 36 patients died. At least 16,693 people were isolated with suspicious symptoms. This paper estimates the basic reproduction number of the MERS coronavirus (CoV), using data on the spread of MERS in South Korea. The basic reproduction number of an epidemic is defined as the average number of secondary cases that an infected subject produces over its infectious period in a susceptible and uninfected population. To estimate the basic reproduction number of the MERS-CoV, we employ data from the 2015 South Korea MERS outbreak and the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model, a mathematical model that uses a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We fit the model to the epidemic data of the South Korea outbreak minimizing the sum of the squared errors to identify model parameters. Also we derive the basic reproductive number as the terms of the parameters of the SIR model. Then we determine the basic reproduction number of the MERS-CoV in South Korea in 2015 as 8.0977. It is worth comparing with the basic reproductive number of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa including Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, which had values of 1.5-2.5. There was no intervention to control the infection in the early phase of the outbreak, thus the data used here provide the best conditions to evaluate the epidemic characteristics of MERS, such as the basic reproduction number. An evaluation of basic reproduction number using epidemic data could be problematic if there are stochastic fluctuations in the early phase of the outbreak, or if the report is not accurate and there is bias in the data. Such problems are not relevant to this study because the data used here were precisely reported and verified by Korea Hospital Association.

Exploring the Relationship between Skeletal Mass and Total Body Mass in Birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin-Silverstone, Elizabeth; Vincze, Orsolya; McCann, Ria; Jonsson, Carl H W; Palmer, Colin; Kaiser, Gary; Dyke, Gareth

2015-01-01

Total body mass (TBM) is known to be related to a number of different osteological features in vertebrates, including limb element measurements and total skeletal mass. The relationship between skeletal mass and TBM in birds has been suggested as a way of estimating the latter in cases where only the skeleton is known (e.g., fossils). This relationship has thus also been applied to other extinct vertebrates, including the non-avian pterosaurs, while other studies have used additional skeletal correlates found in modern birds to estimate TBM. However, most previous studies have used TBM compiled from the literature rather than from direct measurements, producing values from population averages rather than from individuals. Here, we report a new dataset of 487 extant birds encompassing 79 species that have skeletal mass and TBM recorded at the time of collection or preparation. We combine both historical and new data for analyses with phylogenetic control and find a similar and well-correlated relationship between skeletal mass and TBM. Thus, we confirm that TBM and skeletal mass are accurate proxies for estimating one another. We also look at other factors that may have an effect on avian body mass, including sex, ontogenetic stage, and flight mode. While data are well-correlated in all cases, phylogeny is a major control on TBM in birds strongly suggesting that this relationship is not appropriate for estimating the total mass of taxa outside of crown birds, Neornithes (e.g., non-avian dinosaurs, pterosaurs). Data also reveal large variability in both bird skeletal and TBM within single species; caution should thus be applied when using published mass to test direct correlations with skeletal mass and bone lengths.

Small numbers are sensed directly, high numbers constructed from size and density.

Science.gov (United States)

Zimmermann, Eckart

2018-04-01

Two theories compete to explain how we estimate the numerosity of visual object sets. The first suggests that the apparent numerosity is derived from an analysis of more low-level features like size and density of the set. The second theory suggests that numbers are sensed directly. Consistent with the latter claim is the existence of neurons in parietal cortex which are specialized for processing the numerosity of elements in the visual scene. However, recent evidence suggests that only low numbers can be sensed directly whereas the perception of high numbers is supported by the analysis of low-level features. Processing of low and high numbers, being located at different levels of the neural hierarchy should involve different receptive field sizes. Here, I tested this idea with visual adaptation. I measured the spatial spread of number adaptation for low and high numerosities. A focused adaptation spread of high numerosities suggested the involvement of early neural levels where receptive fields are comparably small and the broad spread for low numerosities was consistent with processing of number neurons which have larger receptive fields. These results provide evidence for the claim that different mechanism exist generating the perception of visual numerosity. Whereas low numbers are sensed directly as a primary visual attribute, the estimation of high numbers however likely depends on the area size over which the objects are spread. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of stream total phosphate concentration by soft computing techniques.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Fi-John; Chen, Pin-An; Chang, Li-Chiu; Tsai, Yu-Hsuan

2016-08-15

This study attempts to model the spatio-temporal dynamics of total phosphate (TP) concentrations along a river for effective hydro-environmental management. We propose a systematical modeling scheme (SMS), which is an ingenious modeling process equipped with a dynamic neural network and three refined statistical methods, for reliably predicting the TP concentrations along a river simultaneously. Two different types of artificial neural network (BPNN-static neural network; NARX network-dynamic neural network) are constructed in modeling the dynamic system. The Dahan River in Taiwan is used as a study case, where ten-year seasonal water quality data collected at seven monitoring stations along the river are used for model training and validation. Results demonstrate that the NARX network can suitably capture the important dynamic features and remarkably outperforms the BPNN model, and the SMS can effectively identify key input factors, suitably overcome data scarcity, significantly increase model reliability, satisfactorily estimate site-specific TP concentration at seven monitoring stations simultaneously, and adequately reconstruct seasonal TP data into a monthly scale. The proposed SMS can reliably model the dynamic spatio-temporal water pollution variation in a river system for missing, hazardous or costly data of interest. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Partitioning of copy-number genotypes in pedigrees

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andelfinger Gregor U

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Copy number variations (CNVs and polymorphisms (CNPs have only recently gained the genetic community's attention. Conservative estimates have shown that CNVs and CNPs might affect more than 10% of the genome and that they may be at least as important as single nucleotide polymorphisms in assessing human variability. Widely used tools for CNP analysis have been implemented in Birdsuite and PLINK for the purpose of conducting genetic association studies based on the unpartitioned total number of CNP copies provided by the intensities from Affymetrix's Genome-Wide Human SNP Array. Here, we are interested in partitioning copy number variations and polymorphisms in extended pedigrees for the purpose of linkage analysis on familial data. Results We have developed CNGen, a new software for the partitioning of copy number polymorphism using the integrated genotypes from Birdsuite with the Affymetrix platform. The algorithm applied to familial trios or extended pedigrees can produce partitioned copy number genotypes with distinct parental alleles. We have validated the algorithm using simulations on a complex pedigree structure using frequencies calculated from a real dataset of 300 genotyped samples from 42 pedigrees segregating a congenital heart defect phenotype. Conclusions CNGen is the first published software for the partitioning of copy number genotypes in pedigrees, making possible the use CNPs and CNVs for linkage analysis. It was implemented with the Python interpreter version 2.5.2. It was successfully tested on current Linux, Windows and Mac OS workstations.

Use of BEIR V and UNSCEAR 1988 in radiation risk assessment: Lifetime total cancer mortality risk estimates at low doses and low dose rates for low-LET radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-12-01

In November 1986, the Department of Defense (DoD) asked the Committee on Interagency Radiation Research and Policy Coordination (CIRRPC) to develop a coordinated Federal position on risk assessment for low levels of ionizing radiation. Since Federal risk assessment activities are based primarily on the scientific data and analyses in authoritative review documents prepared by groups like the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR), the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) and the United Nations' Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), DoD proposed that the CIRRPC Science Panel undertake the task of providing coordinated interagency positions on the use of information in the reports of such groups. The practice has been for individual Federal agencies to interpret and decide independently how to use the information provided in such reports. As a result of its deliberations, the Subpanel recommends two nominal risk estimates for lifetime total cancer mortality following whole-body exposure to low levels of low-LET ionizing radiation, one for the general population and one for the working-age population (see Section II). The recommended risk estimates reflect the general agreement of information in BEIR V and UNSCEAR 1988 for total cancer mortality. The Subpanel's risk estimates and associated statements are intended to meet the needs of the Federal agencies for: (a) values that are current; (b) values that are relevant to the low-dose and low dose-rate ionizing radiation exposures principally encountered in carrying out Federal responsibilities; (c) a statement of the change in the estimates of lifetime total cancer mortality relative to estimates in previous authoritative review documents; and (d) a practical statement on the scientific uncertainty associated with applying the lifetime total cancer mortality values at very low doses

2015-2016 Palila abundance estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Banko, Paul C.

2016-01-01

The palila (Loxioides bailleui) population was surveyed annually during 1998−2016 on Mauna Kea Volcano to determine abundance, population trend, and spatial distribution. In the latest surveys, the 2015 population was estimated at 852−1,406 birds (point estimate: 1,116) and the 2016 population was estimated at 1,494−2,385 (point estimate: 1,934). Similar numbers of palila were detected during the first and subsequent counts within each year during 2012−2016; the proportion of the total annual detections in each count ranged from 46% to 56%; and there was no difference in the detection probability due to count sequence. Furthermore, conducting repeat counts improved the abundance estimates by reducing the width of the confidence intervals between 9% and 32% annually. This suggests that multiple counts do not affect bird or observer behavior and can be continued in the future to improve the precision of abundance estimates. Five palila were detected on supplemental survey stations in the Ka‘ohe restoration area, outside the core survey area but still within Palila Critical Habitat (one in 2015 and four in 2016), suggesting that palila are present in habitat that is recovering from cattle grazing on the southwest slope. The average rate of decline during 1998−2016 was 150 birds per year. Over the 18-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to a 58% decline in the population.

Analysis of the total system life cycle cost for the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program. Volume 1. The analysis and its results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-04-01

The total-system life-cycle cost (TSLCC) analysis for the Department of Energy's (DOE) Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program is an ongoing activity that helps determine whether the revenue-producing mechanism established by the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 is sufficient to cover the cost of the program. This report provides cost estimates for the fourth evaluation of the adequacy of the fee. The total-system cost for the reference authorized-system program is estimated to be 24 to 32 billion (1985) dollars. The total-system cost for the reference improved-performance system is estimated to be 26 to 34 billion dollars. A number of sensitivity cases were analyzed. For the authorized system, the costs for the sensitivity cases studied range from 21 to 39 billion dollars. For the improved-performance system, which includes a facility for monitored retrievable storage, the total-system cost in the sensitivity cases is estimated to be as high as 41 billion dollars. The factors that affect costs more than any other single factor for both the authorized and the improved-performance systems are delays in repository startup. A preliminary analysis of the impact of extending the burnup of nuclear fuel in the reactor was also performed; its results indicate that the impact is insignificant: the total-system cost is essentially unchanged from the comparable constant-burnup cases. The current estimate of the the total-system cost for the reference authorized system is zero to 3 billion dollars (9%) higher than the estimate for the reference system in the January 1985 TSLCC analysis

Continental anthropogenic primary particle number emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Paasonen, Pauli; Kupiainen, Kaarle; Klimont, Zbigniew; Visschedijk, Antoon; Denier van der Gon, Hugo A. C.; Amann, Markus

2016-06-01

Atmospheric aerosol particle number concentrations impact our climate and health in ways different from those of aerosol mass concentrations. However, the global, current and future anthropogenic particle number emissions and their size distributions are so far poorly known. In this article, we present the implementation of particle number emission factors and the related size distributions in the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) model. This implementation allows for global estimates of particle number emissions under different future scenarios, consistent with emissions of other pollutants and greenhouse gases. In addition to determining the general particulate number emissions, we also describe a method to estimate the number size distributions of the emitted black carbon particles. The first results show that the sources dominating the particle number emissions are different to those dominating the mass emissions. The major global number source is road traffic, followed by residential combustion of biofuels and coal (especially in China, India and Africa), coke production (Russia and China), and industrial combustion and processes. The size distributions of emitted particles differ across the world, depending on the main sources: in regions dominated by traffic and industry, the number size distribution of emissions peaks in diameters range from 20 to 50 nm, whereas in regions with intensive biofuel combustion and/or agricultural waste burning, the emissions of particles with diameters around 100 nm are dominant. In the baseline (current legislation) scenario, the particle number emissions in Europe, Northern and Southern Americas, Australia, and China decrease until 2030, whereas especially for India, a strong increase is estimated. The results of this study provide input for modelling of the future changes in aerosol-cloud interactions as well as particle number related adverse health effects, e.g. in response to tightening

Continental anthropogenic primary particle number emissions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Paasonen

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Atmospheric aerosol particle number concentrations impact our climate and health in ways different from those of aerosol mass concentrations. However, the global, current and future anthropogenic particle number emissions and their size distributions are so far poorly known. In this article, we present the implementation of particle number emission factors and the related size distributions in the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas–Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies model. This implementation allows for global estimates of particle number emissions under different future scenarios, consistent with emissions of other pollutants and greenhouse gases. In addition to determining the general particulate number emissions, we also describe a method to estimate the number size distributions of the emitted black carbon particles. The first results show that the sources dominating the particle number emissions are different to those dominating the mass emissions. The major global number source is road traffic, followed by residential combustion of biofuels and coal (especially in China, India and Africa, coke production (Russia and China, and industrial combustion and processes. The size distributions of emitted particles differ across the world, depending on the main sources: in regions dominated by traffic and industry, the number size distribution of emissions peaks in diameters range from 20 to 50 nm, whereas in regions with intensive biofuel combustion and/or agricultural waste burning, the emissions of particles with diameters around 100 nm are dominant. In the baseline (current legislation scenario, the particle number emissions in Europe, Northern and Southern Americas, Australia, and China decrease until 2030, whereas especially for India, a strong increase is estimated. The results of this study provide input for modelling of the future changes in aerosol–cloud interactions as well as particle number related adverse health effects, e.g. in response