WorldWideScience

Sample records for timing climate patterns

  1. Arctic climate change with a 2C global warming. Timing, climate patterns and vegetation change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplan, J.O.; New, M.

    2006-01-01

    The signatories to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are charged with stabilizing the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that prevents dangerous interference with the climate system. A number of nations, organizations and scientists have suggested that global mean temperature should not rise over 2C above preindustrial levels. However, even a relatively moderate target of 2C has serious implications for the Arctic, where temperatures are predicted to increase at least 1.5 to 2 times as fast as global temperatures. High latitude vegetation plays a significant role in the lives of humans and animals, and in the global energy balance and carbon budget. These ecosystems are expected to be among the most strongly impacted by climate change over the next century. To investigate the potential impact of stabilization of global temperature at 2C, we performed a study using data from six Global Climate Models (GCMs) forced by four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the BIOME4 biogeochemistry-biogeography model, and remote sensing data. GCM data were used to predict the timing and patterns of Arctic climate change under a global mean warming of 2C. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra and six forest biomes was used to develop a map of observed Arctic vegetation. BIOME4 was used to simulate the vegetation distributions over the Arctic at the present and for a range of 2C global warming scenarios. The GCMs simulations indicate that the earth will have warmed by 2C relative to preindustrial temperatures by between 2026 and 2060, by which stage the area-mean annual temperature over the Arctic (60-90N) will have increased by between 3.2 and 6.6C. Forest extent is predicted by BIOME4 to increase in the Arctic on the order of 3 x 106 km 2 or 55% with a corresponding 42% reduction in tundra area. Tundra types generally also shift north with the largest reductions in the prostrate dwarf-shrub tundra

  2. The Space-Time Variation of Global Crop Yields, Detecting Simultaneous Outliers and Identifying the Teleconnections with Climatic Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafi, E.; Devineni, N.; Pal, I.; Khanbilvardi, R.

    2017-12-01

    An understanding of the climate factors that influence the space-time variability of crop yields is important for food security purposes and can help us predict global food availability. In this study, we address how the crop yield trends of countries globally were related to each other during the last several decades and the main climatic variables that triggered high/low crop yields simultaneously across the world. Robust Principal Component Analysis (rPCA) is used to identify the primary modes of variation in wheat, maize, sorghum, rice, soybeans, and barley yields. Relations between these modes of variability and important climatic variables, especially anomalous sea surface temperature (SSTa), are examined from 1964 to 2010. rPCA is also used to identify simultaneous outliers in each year, i.e. systematic high/low crop yields across the globe. The results demonstrated spatiotemporal patterns of these crop yields and the climate-related events that caused them as well as the connection of outliers with weather extremes. We find that among climatic variables, SST has had the most impact on creating simultaneous crop yields variability and yield outliers in many countries. An understanding of this phenomenon can benefit global crop trade networks.

  3. Soil moisture response to experimentally altered snowmelt timing is mediated by soil, vegetation, and regional climate patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conner, Lafe G; Gill, Richard A.; Belnap, Jayne

    2016-01-01

    Soil moisture in seasonally snow-covered environments fluctuates seasonally between wet and dry states. Climate warming is advancing the onset of spring snowmelt and may lengthen the summer-dry state and ultimately cause drier soil conditions. The magnitude of either response may vary across elevation and vegetation types. We situated our study at the lower boundary of persistent snow cover and the upper boundary of subalpine forest with paired treatment blocks in aspen forest and open meadow. In treatments plots, we advanced snowmelt timing by an average of 14 days by adding dust to the snow surface during spring melt. We specifically wanted to know whether early snowmelt would increase the duration of the summer-dry period and cause soils to be drier in the early-snowmelt treatments compared with control plots. We found no difference in the onset of the summer-dry state and no significant differences in soil moisture between treatments. To better understand the reasons soil moisture did not respond to early snowmelt as expected, we examined the mediating influences of soil organic matter, texture, temperature, and the presence or absence of forest. In our study, late-spring precipitation may have moderated the effects of early snowmelt on soil moisture. We conclude that landscape characteristics, including soil, vegetation, and regional weather patterns, may supersede the effects of snowmelt timing in determining growing season soil moisture, and efforts to anticipate the impacts of climate change on seasonally snow-covered ecosystems should take into account these mediating factors. 

  4. Identification of Extreme Events Under Climate Change Conditions Over Europe and The Northwest-atlantic Region: Spatial Patterns and Time Series Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, G.; Ulbrich, U.; Speth, P.

    In the context of climate change and the resulting possible impacts on socio-economic conditions for human activities it seems that due to a changed occurrence of extreme events more severe consequences have to be expected than from changes in the mean climate. These extreme events like floods, excessive heats and droughts or windstorms possess impacts on human social and economic life in different categories such as forestry, agriculture, energy use, tourism and the reinsurance business. Reinsurances are affected by nearly 70% of all insured damages over Europe in the case of wind- storms. Especially the December 1999 French windstorms caused damages about 10 billion. A new EU-founded project (MICE = Modelling the Impact of Climate Ex- tremes) will focus on these impacts caused by changed occurrences of extreme events over Europe. Based upon the output of general circulation models as well as regional climate models, investigations are carried out with regard to time series characteristics as well as the spatial patterns of extremes under climate changed conditions. After the definition of specific thresholds for climate extremes, in this talk we will focus on the results of the analysis for the different data sets (HadCM3 and CGCMII GCM's and RCM's, re-analyses, observations) with regard to windstorm events. At first the results of model outputs are validated against re-analyses and observations. Especially a comparison of the stormtrack (2.5 to 8 day bandpass filtered 500 hPa geopotential height), cyclone track, cyclone frequency and intensity is presented. Highly relevant to damages is the extreme wind near the ground level, so the 10 m wind speed will be investigated additionally. of special interest to possible impacts is the changed spatial occurrence of windspeed maxima under 2xCO2-induced climate change.

  5. Late-Middle Quaternary lithostratigraphy and sedimentation patterns on the Alpha Ridge, central Arctic Ocean: Implications for Arctic climate variability on orbital time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Rujian; Polyak, Leonid; Xiao, Wenshen; Wu, Li; Zhang, Taoliang; Sun, Yechen; Xu, Xiaomei

    2018-02-01

    We use sediment cores collected by the Chinese National Arctic Research Expeditions from the Alpha Ridge to advance Quaternary stratigraphy and paleoceanographic reconstructions for the Arctic Ocean. Our cores show a good litho/biostratigraphic correlation to sedimentary records developed earlier for the central Arctic Ocean, suggesting a recovered stratigraphic range of ca. 0.6 Ma, suitable for paleoclimatic studies on orbital time scales. This stratigraphy was tested by correlating the stacked Alpha Ridge record of bulk XRF manganese, calcium and zirconium (Mn, Ca, Zr), to global stable-isotope (LR04-δ18O) and sea-level stacks and tuning to orbital parameters. Correlation results corroborate the applicability of presumed climate/sea-level controlled Mn variations in the Arctic Ocean for orbital tuning. This approach enables better understanding of the global and orbital controls on the Arctic climate. Orbital tuning experiments for our records indicate strong eccentricity (100-kyr) and precession (∼20-kyr) controls on the Arctic Ocean, probably implemented via glaciations and sea ice. Provenance proxies like Ca and Zr are shown to be unsuitable as orbital tuning tools, but useful as indicators of glacial/deglacial processes and circulation patterns in the Arctic Ocean. Their variations suggest an overall long-term persistence of the Beaufort Gyre circulation in the Alpha Ridge region. Some glacial intervals, e.g., MIS 6 and 4/3, are predominated by material presumably transported by the Transpolar Drift. These circulation shifts likely indicate major changes in the Arctic climatic regime, which yet need to be investigated. Overall, our results demonstrate applicability of XRF data to paleoclimatic studies of the Arctic Ocean.

  6. TECA: Petascale pattern recognition for climate science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prabhat, . [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Byna, Surendra [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Vishwanath, Venkatram [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Dart, Eli [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wehner, Michael [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Collins, William D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-08-26

    Climate Change is one of the most pressing challenges facing humanity in the 21st century. Climate simulations provide us with a unique opportunity to examine effects of anthropogenic emissions. Highresolution climate simulations produce “Big Data”: contemporary climate archives are ≈ 5PB in size and we expect future archives to measure on the order of Exa-Bytes. In this work, we present the successful application of TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis) framework, for extracting extreme weather patterns such as Tropical Cyclones, Atmospheric Rivers and Extra-Tropical Cyclones from TB-sized simulation datasets. TECA has been run at full-scale on Cray XE6 and IBM BG/Q systems, and has reduced the runtime for pattern detection tasks from years to hours. TECA has been utilized to evaluate the performance of various computational models in reproducing the statistics of extreme weather events, and for characterizing the change in frequency of storm systems in the future.

  7. Climate change patterns in Amazonia and biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Cruz, Francisco W; Wang, Xianfeng; Edwards, R Lawrence; d'Horta, Fernando M; Ribas, Camila C; Vuille, Mathias; Stott, Lowell D; Auler, Augusto S

    2013-01-01

    Precise characterization of hydroclimate variability in Amazonia on various timescales is critical to understanding the link between climate change and biodiversity. Here we present absolute-dated speleothem oxygen isotope records that characterize hydroclimate variation in western and eastern Amazonia over the past 250 and 20 ka, respectively. Although our records demonstrate the coherent millennial-scale precipitation variability across tropical-subtropical South America, the orbital-scale precipitation variability between western and eastern Amazonia exhibits a quasi-dipole pattern. During the last glacial period, our records imply a modest increase in precipitation amount in western Amazonia but a significant drying in eastern Amazonia, suggesting that higher biodiversity in western Amazonia, contrary to 'Refugia Hypothesis', is maintained under relatively stable climatic conditions. In contrast, the glacial-interglacial climatic perturbations might have been instances of loss rather than gain in biodiversity in eastern Amazonia, where forests may have been more susceptible to fragmentation in response to larger swings in hydroclimate.

  8. Impacts of Climate Change on Tibetan Lakes: Patterns and Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dehua Mao

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available High-altitude inland-drainage lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP, the earth’s third pole, are very sensitive to climate change. Tibetan lakes are important natural resources with important religious, historical, and cultural significance. However, the spatial patterns and processes controlling the impacts of climate and associated changes on Tibetan lakes are largely unknown. This study used long time series and multi-temporal Landsat imagery to map the patterns of Tibetan lakes and glaciers in 1977, 1990, 2000, and 2014, and further to assess the spatiotemporal changes of lakes and glaciers in 17 TP watersheds between 1977 and 2014. Spatially variable changes in lake and glacier area as well as climatic factors were analyzed. We identified four modes of lake change in response to climate and associated changes. Lake expansion was predominantly attributed to increased precipitation and glacier melting, whereas lake shrinkage was a main consequence of a drier climate or permafrost degradation. These findings shed new light on the impacts of recent environmental changes on Tibetan lakes. They suggest that protecting these high-altitude lakes in the face of further environmental change will require spatially variable policies and management measures.

  9. Characterizing the "Time of Emergence" of Air Quality Climate Penalties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothenberg, D. A.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Monier, E.; Solomon, S.; Selin, N. E.

    2017-12-01

    By driving not only local changes in temperature, but also precipitation and regional-scale changes in seasonal circulation patterns, climate change can directly and indirectly influence changes in air quality and its extremes. These changes - often referred to as "climate penalties" - can have important implications for human health, which is often targeted when assessing the potential co-benefits of climate policy. But because climate penalties are driven by slow, spatially-varying, temporal changes in the climate system, their emergence in the real world should also have a spatio-temporal component following regional variability in background air quality. In this work, we attempt to estimate the spatially-varying "time of emergence" of climate penalty signals by using an ensemble modeling framework based on the MIT Integrated Global System Model (MIT IGSM). With this framework we assess three climate policy scenarios assuming three different underlying climate sensitivities, and conduct a 5-member ensemble for each case to capture internal variability within the model. These simulations are used to drive offline chemical transport modeling (using CAM-Chem and GEOS-Chem). In these simulations, we find that the air quality response to climate change can vary dramatically across different regions of the globe. To analyze these regionally-varying climate signals, we employ a hierarchical clustering technique to identify regions with similar seasonal patterns of air quality change. Our simulations suggest that the earliest emergence of ozone climate penalties would occur in Southern Europe (by 2035), should the world neglect climate change and rely on a "business-as-usual" emissions policy. However, even modest climate policy dramatically pushes back the time of emergence of these penalties - to beyond 2100 - across most of the globe. The emergence of climate-forced changes in PM2.5 are much more difficult to detect, partially owing to the large role that changes in

  10. Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Damon Matthews, H.

    2017-07-01

    Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.

  11. Effect of core body temperature, time of day, and climate conditions on behavioral patterns of lactating dairy cows experiencing mild to moderate heat stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, J D; Hall, L W; Collier, R J; Smith, J F

    2015-01-01

    Cattle show several responses to heat load, including spending more time standing. Little is known about what benefit this may provide for the animals. Data from 3 separate cooling management trials were analyzed to investigate the relationship between behavioral patterns in lactating dairy cows experiencing mild to moderate heat stress and their body temperature. Cows (n=157) were each fitted with a leg data logger that measured position and an intravaginal data logger that measures core body temperature (CBT). Ambient conditions were also collected. All data were standardized to 5-min intervals, and information was divided into several categories: when standing and lying bouts were initiated and the continuance of each bout (7,963 lying and 6,276 standing bouts). In one location, cows were continuously subjected to heat-stress levels according to temperature-humidity index (THI) range (THI≥72). The THI range for the other 2 locations was below and above a heat-stress threshold of 72 THI. Overall and regardless of period of day, cows stood up at greater CBT compared with continuing to stand or switching to a lying position. In contrast, cows lay down at lower CBT compared with continuing to lie or switching to a standing position, and lying bouts lasted longer when cows had lower CBT. Standing bouts also lasted longer when cattle had greater CBT, and they were less likely to lie down (less than 50% of lying bouts initiated) when their body temperature was over 38.8°C. Also, cow standing behavior was affected once THI reached 68. Increasing CBT decreased lying duration and increased standing duration. A CBT of 38.93°C marked a 50% likelihood a cow would be standing. This is the first physiological evidence that standing may help cool cows and provides insight into a communally observed behavioral response to heat. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Global patterns in endemism explained by past climatic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansson, Roland

    2003-03-22

    I propose that global patterns in numbers of range-restricted endemic species are caused by variation in the amplitude of climatic change occurring on time-scales of 10-100 thousand years (Milankovitch oscillations). The smaller the climatic shifts, the more probable it is that palaeoendemics survive and that diverging gene pools persist without going extinct or merging, favouring the evolution of neoendemics. Using the change in mean annual temperature since the last glacial maximum, estimated from global circulation models, I show that the higher the temperature change in an area, the fewer endemic species of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and vascular plants it harbours. This relationship was robust to variation in area (for areas greater than 10(4) km2), latitudinal position, extent of former glaciation and whether or not areas are oceanic islands. Past climatic change was a better predictor of endemism than annual temperature range in all phylads except amphibians, suggesting that Rapoport's rule (i.e. species range sizes increase with latitude) is best explained by the increase in the amplitude of climatic oscillations towards the poles. Globally, endemic-rich areas are predicted to warm less in response to greenhouse-gas emissions, but the predicted warming would cause many habitats to disappear regionally, leading to species extinctions.

  13. Reconstructing large-scale climatic patterns from tree-ring data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritts, H.C. (Arizona Univ., Tucson, AZ (United States). Lab. of Tree-Ring Research)

    1991-01-01

    This book describes Harold Fritts's work developing methodologies for reconstructing tree-ring chronologies that can be used to provide models for understanding climate variations over the past several centuries. The time series and patterns of climate change for North America from 1602 to 1963, provide a basis for comparison with what can be reconstructed of climatic patterns in other parts of the world. In describing experiments and analyses that were conducted over fifteen years, Fritts focuses on how he developed and tested a set of equations for reconstructing this 400-year climate history from tree rings. He documents in detail the procedures used to obtain climatic reconstructions and shows how he was able to apply these data to climatic questions.

  14. Time varying arctic climate change amplification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chylek, Petr [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Dubey, Manvendra K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Lesins, Glen [DALLHOUSIE U; Wang, Muyin [NOAA/JISAO

    2009-01-01

    During the past 130 years the global mean surface air temperature has risen by about 0.75 K. Due to feedbacks -- including the snow/ice albedo feedback -- the warming in the Arctic is expected to proceed at a faster rate than the global average. Climate model simulations suggest that this Arctic amplification produces warming that is two to three times larger than the global mean. Understanding the Arctic amplification is essential for projections of future Arctic climate including sea ice extent and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. We use the temperature records from the Arctic stations to show that (a) the Arctic amplification is larger at latitudes above 700 N compared to those within 64-70oN belt, and that, surprisingly; (b) the ratio of the Arctic to global rate of temperature change is not constant but varies on the decadal timescale. This time dependence will affect future projections of climate changes in the Arctic.

  15. Temporal patterns in adult salmon migration timing across southeast Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovach, Ryan P.; Ellison, Stephen; Pyare, Sanjay; Tallmon, David

    2015-01-01

    Pacific salmon migration timing can drive population productivity, ecosystem dynamics, and human harvest. Nevertheless, little is known about long-term variation in salmon migration timing for multiple species across broad regions. We used long-term data for five Pacific salmon species throughout rapidly warming southeast Alaska to describe long-term changes in salmon migration timing, interannual phenological synchrony, relationships between climatic variation and migratory timing, and to test whether long-term changes in migration timing are related to glaciation in headwater streams. Temporal changes in the median date of salmon migration timing varied widely across species. Most sockeye populations are migrating later over time (11 of 14), but pink, chum, and especially coho populations are migrating earlier than they did historically (16 of 19 combined). Temporal trends in duration and interannual variation in migration timing were highly variable across species and populations. The greatest temporal shifts in the median date of migration timing were correlated with decreases in the duration of migration timing, suggestive of a loss of phenotypic variation due to natural selection. Pairwise interannual correlations in migration timing varied widely but were generally positive, providing evidence for weak region-wide phenological synchrony. This synchrony is likely a function of climatic variation, as interannual variation in migration timing was related to climatic phenomenon operating at large- (Pacific decadal oscillation), moderate- (sea surface temperature), and local-scales (precipitation). Surprisingly, the presence or the absence of glaciers within a watershed was unrelated to long-term shifts in phenology. Overall, there was extensive heterogeneity in long-term patterns of migration timing throughout this climatically and geographically complex region, highlighting that future climatic change will likely have widely divergent impacts on salmon

  16. Auditory memory for random time patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, HiJee; Agus, Trevor R; Pressnitzer, Daniel

    2017-10-01

    The acquisition of auditory memory for temporal patterns was investigated. The temporal patterns were random sequences of irregularly spaced clicks. Participants performed a task previously used to study auditory memory for noise [Agus, Thorpe, and Pressnitzer (2010). Neuron 66, 610-618]. The memory for temporal patterns displayed strong similarities with the memory for noise: temporal patterns were learnt rapidly, in an unsupervised manner, and could be distinguished from statistically matched patterns after learning. There was, however, a qualitative difference from the memory for noise. For temporal patterns, no memory transfer was observed after time reversals, showing that both the time intervals and their order were represented in memory. Remarkably, learning was observed over a broad range of time scales, which encompassed rhythm-like and buzz-like temporal patterns. Temporal patterns present specific challenges to the neural mechanisms of plasticity, because the information to be learnt is distributed over time. Nevertheless, the present data show that the acquisition of novel auditory memories can be as efficient for temporal patterns as for sounds containing additional spectral and spectro-temporal cues, such as noise. This suggests that the rapid formation of memory traces may be a general by-product of repeated auditory exposure.

  17. Climate change and amphibian diversity patterns in Mexico

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ochoa-Ochoa, Leticia M.; Rodríguez, Pilar; Mora, Franz

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this article is to characterize at fine scale alpha and beta diversity patterns for Mexican amphibians and analyze how these patterns might change under a moderate climate-change scenario, highlighting the overall consequences for amphibian diversity at the country level. We used a geo...

  18. On the nature of rainfall in dry climate: Space-time patterns of convective rain cells over the Dead Sea region and their relations with synoptic state and flash flood generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belachsen, Idit; Marra, Francesco; Peleg, Nadav; Morin, Efrat

    2017-04-01

    Space-time patterns of rainfall are important climatic characteristics that influence runoff generation and flash flood magnitude. Their derivation requires high-resolution measurements to adequately represent the rainfall distribution, and is best provided by remote sensing tools. This need is further emphasized in dry climate regions, where rainfall is scarce and, often, local and highly variable. Our research is focused on understanding the nature of rainfall events in the dry Dead Sea region (Eastern Mediterranean) by identifying and characterizing the spatial structure and the dynamics of convective storm cores (known as rain cells). To do so, we take advantage of 25 years of corrected and gauge-adjusted weather radar data. A statistical analysis of convective rain-cells spatial and temporal characteristics was performed with respect to synoptic pattern, geographical location, and flash flood generation. Rain cells were extracted from radar data using a cell segmentation method and a tracking algorithm and were divided into rain events. A total of 10,500 rain cells, 2650 cell tracks and 424 rain events were elicited. Rain cell properties, such as mean areal and maximal rain intensity, area, life span, direction and speed, were derived. Rain events were clustered, according to several ERA-Interim atmospheric parameters, and associated with three main synoptic patterns: Cyprus Low, Low to the East of the study region and Active Red Sea Trough. The first two originate from the Mediterranean Sea, while the third is an extension of the African monsoon. On average, the convective rain cells in the region are 90 km2 in size, moving from West to East in 13 ms-1 and living 18 minutes. Several significant differences between rain cells of the various synoptic types were observed. In particular, Active Red Sea Trough rain cells are characterized by higher rain intensities and lower speeds, suggesting a higher flooding potential for small catchments. The north

  19. Strong biotic influences on regional patterns of climate regulation services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serna-Chavez, H. M.; Swenson, N. G.; Weiser, M. D.; van Loon, E. E.; Bouten, W.; Davidson, M. D.; van Bodegom, P. M.

    2017-05-01

    Climate regulation services from forests are an important leverage in global-change mitigation treaties. Like most ecosystem services, climate regulation is the product of various ecological phenomena with unique spatial features. Elucidating which abiotic and biotic factors relate to spatial patterns of climate regulation services advances our understanding of what underlies climate-mitigation potential and its variation within and across ecosystems. Here we quantify and contrast the statistical relations between climate regulation services (albedo and evapotranspiration, primary productivity, and soil carbon) and abiotic and biotic factors. We focus on 16,955 forest plots in a regional extent across the eastern United States. We find the statistical effects of forest litter and understory carbon on climate regulation services to be as strong as those of temperature-precipitation interactions. These biotic factors likely influence climate regulation through changes in vegetation and canopy density, radiance scattering, and decomposition rates. We also find a moderate relation between leaf nitrogen traits and primary productivity at this regional scale. The statistical relation between climate regulation and temperature-precipitation ranges, seasonality, and climatic thresholds highlights a strong feedback with global climate change. Our assessment suggests the expression of strong biotic influences on climate regulation services at a regional, temperate extent. Biotic homogenization and management practices manipulating forest structure and succession will likely strongly impact climate-mitigation potential. The identity, strength, and direction of primary influences differed for each process involved in climate regulation. Hence, different abiotic and biotic factors are needed to monitor and quantify the full climate-mitigation potential of temperate forest ecosystems.

  20. Fluvial response time during continuous climate change: A new formulation and applications to climatically and tectonically modulated bedrock fluvial channels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goren, L.; Petit, C.

    2016-12-01

    Fluvial channels respond to changing tectonic and climatic conditions by adjusting their patterns of erosion and relief. It is therefore expected that by examining these patterns, we can infer the tectonic and climatic conditions that shaped the channels. However, the potential interference between climatic and tectonic signals complicates this inference. Within the framework of the stream power model that describes incision rates of mountainous bedrock rivers, climate variability has two effects: first, it influences the erosive power of the river, causing local slope change, and second, it changes the fluvial response time, that controls the rate at which tectonic and climatic variations are communicated upstream. Because of this dual role, the definition of the response time during continuous climate change has so far been elusive, which hindered our understanding of environmental signal propagation and preservation in the fluvial topography. Here, we propose a new definition of fluvial response time that is based on an analytic solution of the stream power model during any general tectonic and climatic histories. This response time depends on space, time, and climatic history, and it allows using river long profiles to recover either the tectonic history or the climatic history. Furthermore, analytic study of landscape evolution during periodic climate change reveals that high frequency climatic oscillations (with respect to the response time), such as Milankovitch cycles, are topographically damped. The new response time definition is applied to the analysis of the Tinee river tributaries in the southern French Alps. Tributaries long profile is used to recover the incision history of the Tinee main trunk, which shows periodic, high incision rate pulses correlated with interglacial episodes. Similar incision histories are recovered for the past 100 ky when assuming constant climatic conditions or periodic climatic oscillations following global temperature curve.

  1. Relationships between teleconnection patterns and Turkish climatic extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baltacı, H.; Akkoyunlu, B. O.; Tayanç, M.

    2017-12-01

    This is a study on the effects of teleconnection patterns (TPs) on the extremes of temperature and precipitation over Turkey. Relationships between five teleconnection patterns, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), East Atlantic-Western Russia (EAWR), East Atlantic (EA), and Scandinavian (SCA) patterns, and 11 climate extreme indices were studied by using 94 uniformly distributed meteorological stations over Turkey for the period of 1965-2014. Analyzing strong positive and negative temperature deviations from the 50-year-winter means shows that such extremes can often be explained by using AO and EAWR patterns. During the negative AO, generally more warm days occur over Black Sea (r = -0.6) and Aegean regions (r = -0.7). This phase of AO also generates above-normal precipitation in the western parts of the Anatolian Peninsula (r around - 0.5). Winter-time negative AO is mainly associated with the presence of a deepened Genoa cyclone over Italy that can transport warm and moist air mass from Mediterranean Sea towards Turkey by strong westerly winds. In contrast, positive EAWR is mainly connected to cold nights over Black Sea (r = 0.6) and Aegean regions (r = 0.6) together with positive precipitation anomalies at the seaside stations of the eastern Black Sea region. On the other hand, when positive EAWR prevails, Azores high-pressure center expands towards continental Europe bringing cold air by strong northerly winds together with higher moisture transport from the Black Sea. These results could pave the way for new possibilities regarding the projection of extremes in downscaling techniques.

  2. Community perception on climate change and usage patterns of non ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Communities living around NDUFR are increasingly relying on NTFPs for food, health and income security among the strategy to cope with change in climate compared to the situation 30 years ago. In conclusion, climate has been varying around forest communities in Kilolo affecting their livelihood. At the same time, NTFPs ...

  3. 507 community perception on climate change and usage patterns

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    Communities living around NDUFR are increasingly relying on NTFPs for food, health and income security among the strategy to cope with change in climate compared to the situation 30 years ago. In conclusion, climate has been varying around forest communities in Kilolo affecting their livelihood. At the same time, NTFPs ...

  4. Climate and weather impact timing of emergence of bats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Winifred F Frick

    Full Text Available Interest in forecasting impacts of climate change have heightened attention in recent decades to how animals respond to variation in climate and weather patterns. One difficulty in determining animal response to climate variation is lack of long-term datasets that record animal behaviors over decadal scales. We used radar observations from the national NEXRAD network of Doppler weather radars to measure how group behavior in a colonially-roosting bat species responded to annual variation in climate and daily variation in weather over the past 11 years. Brazilian free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis form dense aggregations in cave roosts in Texas. These bats emerge from caves daily to forage at high altitudes, which makes them detectable with Doppler weather radars. Timing of emergence in bats is often viewed as an adaptive trade-off between emerging early and risking predation or increased competition and emerging late which restricts foraging opportunities. We used timing of emergence from five maternity colonies of Brazilian free-tailed bats in south-central Texas during the peak lactation period (15 June-15 July to determine whether emergence behavior was associated with summer drought conditions and daily temperatures. Bats emerged significantly earlier during years with extreme drought conditions than during moist years. Bats emerged later on days with high surface temperatures in both dry and moist years, but there was no relationship between surface temperatures and timing of emergence in summers with normal moisture levels. We conclude that emergence behavior is a flexible animal response to climate and weather conditions and may be a useful indicator for monitoring animal response to long-term shifts in climate.

  5. Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

    2017-05-03

    The linkage between crop yield and climate variability has been confirmed in numerous studies using statistical approaches. A crucial assumption in these studies is that crop spatial distribution pattern is constant over time. Here, we explore how changes in county-level corn spatial distribution pattern modulate the response of its yields to climate change at the state level over the Contiguous United States. Our results show that corn yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern, with distinct impacts on the magnitude and even the direction at the state level. Corn yield is predicted to decrease by 20~40% by 2050 s when considering crop spatial distribution pattern changes, which is 6~12% less than the estimates with fixed cropping pattern. The beneficial effects are mainly achieved by reducing the negative impacts of daily maximum temperature and strengthening the positive impacts of precipitation. Our results indicate that previous empirical studies could be biased in assessing climate change impacts by ignoring the changes in crop spatial distribution pattern. This has great implications for understanding the increasing debates on whether climate change will be a net gain or loss for regional agriculture.

  6. Pattern Detection and Extreme Value Analysis on Large Climate Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhat, M.; Byna, S.; Paciorek, C.; Weber, G.; Wu, K.; Yopes, T.; Wehner, M. F.; Ostrouchov, G.; Pugmire, D.; Strelitz, R.; Collins, W.; Bethel, W.

    2011-12-01

    We consider several challenging problems in climate that require quantitative analysis of very large data volumes generated by modern climate simulations. We demonstrate new software capable of addressing these challenges that is designed to exploit petascale platforms using state-of-the-art methods in high performance computing. Atmospheric rivers and Hurricanes are important classes of extreme weather phenomena. Developing analysis tools that can automatically detect these events in large climate datasets can provide us with invaluable information about the frequency of these events. Application of these tools to different climate model outputs can provide us with quality metrics that evaluate whether models produce this important class of phenomena and how the statistics of these events will likely vary in the future. In this work, we present an automatic technique for detecting atmospheric rivers. We use techniques from image processing and topological analysis to extract these features. We implement this technique in a massively parallel fashion on modern supercomputing platforms, and apply the resulting software to both observational data and various models from the CMIP-3 archive. We have successfully completed atmospheric river detections on 1TB of data on 10000 hopper cores in 10 seconds. For hurricane tracking, we have adapted code from GFDL to run in parallel on large datasets. We present results from the application of this code to some recent high resolution CAM5 simulations. Our code is capable of processing 1TB of data in 10 seconds. Extreme value analysis involves statistical techniques for estimating the probability of extreme events and variations in the probabilities over time and space. Because of their rarity, there is a high degree of uncertainty when estimating the behavior of extremes from data at any one location. We are developing a local likelihood approach to borrow strength from multiple locations, with uncertainty estimated using the

  7. Modelling of Patterns in Space and Time

    CERN Document Server

    Murray, James

    1984-01-01

    This volume contains a selection of papers presented at the work­ shop "Modelling of Patterns in Space and Time", organized by the 80nderforschungsbereich 123, "8tochastische Mathematische Modelle", in Heidelberg, July 4-8, 1983. The main aim of this workshop was to bring together physicists, chemists, biologists and mathematicians for an exchange of ideas and results in modelling patterns. Since the mathe­ matical problems arising depend only partially on the particular field of applications the interdisciplinary cooperation proved very useful. The workshop mainly treated phenomena showing spatial structures. The special areas covered were morphogenesis, growth in cell cultures, competition systems, structured populations, chemotaxis, chemical precipitation, space-time oscillations in chemical reactors, patterns in flames and fluids and mathematical methods. The discussions between experimentalists and theoreticians were especially interesting and effective. The editors hope that these proceedings reflect ...

  8. Microhabitat and Climatic Niche Change Explain Patterns of Diversification among Frog Families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moen, Daniel S; Wiens, John J

    2017-07-01

    A major goal of ecology and evolutionary biology is to explain patterns of species richness among clades. Differences in rates of net diversification (speciation minus extinction over time) may often explain these patterns, but the factors that drive variation in diversification rates remain uncertain. Three important candidates are climatic niche position (e.g., whether clades are primarily temperate or tropical), rates of climatic niche change among species within clades, and microhabitat (e.g., aquatic, terrestrial, arboreal). The first two factors have been tested separately in several studies, but the relative importance of all three is largely unknown. Here we explore the correlates of diversification among families of frogs, which collectively represent ∼88% of amphibian species. We assemble and analyze data on phylogeny, climate, and microhabitat for thousands of species. We find that the best-fitting phylogenetic multiple regression model includes all three types of variables: microhabitat, rates of climatic niche change, and climatic niche position. This model explains 67% of the variation in diversification rates among frog families, with arboreal microhabitat explaining ∼31%, niche rates ∼25%, and climatic niche position ∼11%. Surprisingly, we show that microhabitat can have a much stronger influence on diversification than climatic niche position or rates of climatic niche change.

  9. Shift of biome patterns due to simulated climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Claussen, M.

    1993-01-01

    The variability of simulated equilibrium-response patterns of biomes caused by simulated climate variability and climate shift is analysed. This investigation is based on various realisations of simulated present-day climate and climate shift. It has been found that the difference between biomes computed from three 10-year climatologies and from the corresponding 30-year climatology, simulated by the Hamburg climate model at T21 resolution, amounts to approximately 6% of the total land area, Antarctica excluded. This difference is mainly due to differences in annual moisture availability and winter temperatures. When intercomparing biomes from the 10-year climatologies a 10% difference is seen, but there is no unique difference pattern. In contrast to the interdecadal variability, the shift of conditions favorable for biomes due to a shift in climate in the next 100 years, caused by an increase in sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric CO 2 , reveals a unique trend pattern. It turns out that the strongest and most significant signal is the north-east shift of conditions for boreal biomes. This signal is caused by an increase of annual temperature sums as well as mean temperatures of the coldest and warmest months. Trends in annual moisture availability are of secondary importance globally. Regionally, a decrease in water availability affects biomes in Central and East Europe and an increase of water availability leads to a potential increase in tropical rain forest. In total, all differences amount to roughly 30% of the total land surface, Antarctica excluded. (orig./KW)

  10. ALBEDO PATTERN RECOGNITION AND TIME-SERIES ANALYSES IN MALAYSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Salleh

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Pattern recognition and time-series analyses will enable one to evaluate and generate predictions of specific phenomena. The albedo pattern and time-series analyses are very much useful especially in relation to climate condition monitoring. This study is conducted to seek for Malaysia albedo pattern changes. The pattern recognition and changes will be useful for variety of environmental and climate monitoring researches such as carbon budgeting and aerosol mapping. The 10 years (2000–2009 MODIS satellite images were used for the analyses and interpretation. These images were being processed using ERDAS Imagine remote sensing software, ArcGIS 9.3, the 6S code for atmospherical calibration and several MODIS tools (MRT, HDF2GIS, Albedo tools. There are several methods for time-series analyses were explored, this paper demonstrates trends and seasonal time-series analyses using converted HDF format MODIS MCD43A3 albedo land product. The results revealed significance changes of albedo percentages over the past 10 years and the pattern with regards to Malaysia's nebulosity index (NI and aerosol optical depth (AOD. There is noticeable trend can be identified with regards to its maximum and minimum value of the albedo. The rise and fall of the line graph show a similar trend with regards to its daily observation. The different can be identified in term of the value or percentage of rises and falls of albedo. Thus, it can be concludes that the temporal behavior of land surface albedo in Malaysia have a uniform behaviours and effects with regards to the local monsoons. However, although the average albedo shows linear trend with nebulosity index, the pattern changes of albedo with respects to the nebulosity index indicates that there are external factors that implicates the albedo values, as the sky conditions and its diffusion plotted does not have uniform trend over the years, especially when the trend of 5 years interval is examined, 2000 shows high

  11. Cranberry flowering times and climate change in southern Massachusetts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellwood, Elizabeth R.; Playfair, Susan R.; Polgar, Caroline A.; Primack, Richard B.

    2014-09-01

    Plants in wild and agricultural settings are being affected by the warmer temperatures associated with climate change. Here we examine the degree to which the iconic New England cranberry, Vaccinium macrocarpon, is exhibiting signs of altered flowering phenology. Using contemporary records from commercial cranberry bogs in southeastern Massachusetts in the United States, we found that cranberry plants are responsive to temperature. Flowering is approximately 2 days earlier for each 1 °C increase in May temperature. We also investigated the relationship between cranberry flowering and flight dates of the bog copper, Lycaena epixanthe—a butterfly dependent upon cranberry plants in its larval stage. Cranberry flowering and bog copper emergence were found to be changing disproportionately over time, suggesting a potential ecological mismatch. The pattern of advanced cranberry flowering over time coupled with increased temperature has implications not only for the relationship between cranberry plants and their insect associates but also for agricultural crops in general and for the commercial cranberry industry.

  12. Regionalizing Africa: Patterns of Precipitation Variability in Observations and Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badr, Hamada S.; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2016-01-01

    Many studies have documented dramatic climatic and environmental changes that have affected Africa over different time scales. These studies often raise questions regarding the spatial extent and regional connectivity of changes inferred from observations and proxies and/or derived from climate models. Objective regionalization offers a tool for addressing these questions. To demonstrate this potential, applications of hierarchical climate regionalizations of Africa using observations and GCM historical simulations and future projections are presented. First, Africa is regionalized based on interannual precipitation variability using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data for the period 19812014. A number of data processing techniques and clustering algorithms are tested to ensure a robust definition of climate regions. These regionalization results highlight the seasonal and even month-to-month specificity of regional climate associations across the continent, emphasizing the need to consider time of year as well as research question when defining a coherent region for climate analysis. CHIRPS regions are then compared to those of five GCMs for the historic period, with a focus on boreal summer. Results show that some GCMs capture the climatic coherence of the Sahel and associated teleconnections in a manner that is similar to observations, while other models break the Sahel into uncorrelated subregions or produce a Sahel-like region of variability that is spatially displaced from observations. Finally, shifts in climate regions under projected twenty-first-century climate change for different GCMs and emissions pathways are examined. A projected change is found in the coherence of the Sahel, in which the western and eastern Sahel become distinct regions with different teleconnections. This pattern is most pronounced in high-emissions scenarios.

  13. Visual pattern discovery in timed event data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Matthias; Wanner, Franz; Mansmann, Florian; Scheible, Christian; Stennett, Verity; Hasselrot, Anders T.; Keim, Daniel A.

    2011-01-01

    Business processes have tremendously changed the way large companies conduct their business: The integration of information systems into the workflows of their employees ensures a high service level and thus high customer satisfaction. One core aspect of business process engineering are events that steer the workflows and trigger internal processes. Strict requirements on interval-scaled temporal patterns, which are common in time series, are thereby released through the ordinal character of such events. It is this additional degree of freedom that opens unexplored possibilities for visualizing event data. In this paper, we present a flexible and novel system to find significant events, event clusters and event patterns. Each event is represented as a small rectangle, which is colored according to categorical, ordinal or intervalscaled metadata. Depending on the analysis task, different layout functions are used to highlight either the ordinal character of the data or temporal correlations. The system has built-in features for ordering customers or event groups according to the similarity of their event sequences, temporal gap alignment and stacking of co-occurring events. Two characteristically different case studies dealing with business process events and news articles demonstrate the capabilities of our system to explore event data.

  14. Climate change and farmers’ cropping patterns in Cemoro watershed area, Central Java, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugihardjo; Sutrisno, J.; Setyono, P.; Suntoro

    2018-03-01

    Cropping pattern applied by farmers is usually based on the availability of water. Farmers cultivate rice when water is available. If it is unavailable, farmers will choose to plant crops that need less water. Climate change greatly affects to farmers in determining the cropping pattern as it alters the rainfall pattern and distribution in the region. This condition requires farmers to adjust the cropping pattern so that they can do the farming successfully. This study aims to examine the application of cropping patterns applied by the farmers in the Cemoro Watershed, Central Java, Indonesia. Descriptive analysis approach is employed in this research. The results showed that farmers’ cropping pattern is not based on the availability of water. However, it adopts a habit that has been practiced since long time ago or just adopt others farmer's habit. The cropping pattern applied by irrigated paddy farmers in Cemoro watershed area consists of two types: rice-rice-rice and rice-rice-secondary crops. Among those two types, most farmers apply the rice-rice-rice pattern. Meanwhile, there are three cropping patterns applied in the rain-land, namely rice-rice-rice, rice-rice-secondary crop, and rice-rice-fallow. The majority of farmers apply the second pattern (rice-rice-secondary crops). It was also found that farmers’ cropping pattern was not in accordance with the recommendation of the local government.

  15. Time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Donghai; Zhao, Xiang; Liang, Shunlin; Zhou, Tao; Huang, Kaicheng; Tang, Bijian; Zhao, Wenqian

    2015-09-01

    Climate conditions significantly affect vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. Due to the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems, the vegetation responses to climate vary considerably with the diverse spatial patterns and the time-lag effects, which are the most important mechanism of climate-vegetation interactive effects. Extensive studies focused on large-scale vegetation-climate interactions use the simultaneous meteorological and vegetation indicators to develop models; however, the time-lag effects are less considered, which tends to increase uncertainty. In this study, we aim to quantitatively determine the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors using the GIMMS3g NDVI time series and the CRU temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation datasets. First, this study analyzed the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors. Then, a multiple linear regression model and partial correlation model were established to statistically analyze the roles of different climatic factors on vegetation responses, from which the primary climate-driving factors for different vegetation types were determined. The results showed that (i) both the time-lag effects of the vegetation responses and the major climate-driving factors that significantly affect vegetation growth varied significantly at the global scale, which was related to the diverse vegetation and climate characteristics; (ii) regarding the time-lag effects, the climatic factors explained 64% variation of the global vegetation growth, which was 11% relatively higher than the model ignoring the time-lag effects; (iii) for the area with a significant change trend (for the period 1982-2008) in the global GIMMS3g NDVI (P effects is quite important for better predicting and evaluating the vegetation dynamics under the background of global climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Will climate change affect outbreak patterns of planthoppers in Bangladesh?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, M P; Huang, Dingcheng; Nachman, G; Ahmed, Nur; Begum, Mahfuz Ara; Rabbi, M F

    2014-01-01

    Recently, planthoppers outbreaks have intensified across Asia resulting in heavy rice yield losses. The problem has been widely reported as being induced by insecticides while other factors such as global warming that could be potential drivers have been neglected. Here, we speculate that global warming may increase outbreak risk of brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens Stål.). We present data that demonstrate the relationship between climate variables (air temperature and precipitation) and the abundance of brown planthopper (BPH) during 1998-2007. Data show that BPH has become significantly more abundant in April over the 10-year period, but our data do not indicate that this is due to a change in climate, as no significant time trends in temperature and precipitation could be demonstrated. The abundance of BPH varied considerably between months within a year which is attributed to seasonal factors, including the availability of suitable host plants. On the other hand, the variation within months is attributed to fluctuations in monthly temperature and precipitation among years. The effects of these weather variables on BPH abundance were analyzed statistically by a general linear model. The statistical model shows that the expected effect of increasing temperatures is ambiguous and interacts with the amount of rainfall. According to the model, months or areas characterized by a climate that is either cold and dry or hot and wet are likely to experience higher levels of BPH due to climate change, whereas other combinations of temperature and rainfall may reduce the abundance of BPH. The analysis indicates that global warming may have contributed to the recent outbreaks of BPH in some rice growing areas of Asia, and that the severity of such outbreaks is likely to increase if climate change exaggerates. Our study highlights the need to consider climate change when designing strategies to manage planthoppers outbreaks.

  17. Will climate change affect outbreak patterns of planthoppers in Bangladesh?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M P Ali

    Full Text Available Recently, planthoppers outbreaks have intensified across Asia resulting in heavy rice yield losses. The problem has been widely reported as being induced by insecticides while other factors such as global warming that could be potential drivers have been neglected. Here, we speculate that global warming may increase outbreak risk of brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens Stål.. We present data that demonstrate the relationship between climate variables (air temperature and precipitation and the abundance of brown planthopper (BPH during 1998-2007. Data show that BPH has become significantly more abundant in April over the 10-year period, but our data do not indicate that this is due to a change in climate, as no significant time trends in temperature and precipitation could be demonstrated. The abundance of BPH varied considerably between months within a year which is attributed to seasonal factors, including the availability of suitable host plants. On the other hand, the variation within months is attributed to fluctuations in monthly temperature and precipitation among years. The effects of these weather variables on BPH abundance were analyzed statistically by a general linear model. The statistical model shows that the expected effect of increasing temperatures is ambiguous and interacts with the amount of rainfall. According to the model, months or areas characterized by a climate that is either cold and dry or hot and wet are likely to experience higher levels of BPH due to climate change, whereas other combinations of temperature and rainfall may reduce the abundance of BPH. The analysis indicates that global warming may have contributed to the recent outbreaks of BPH in some rice growing areas of Asia, and that the severity of such outbreaks is likely to increase if climate change exaggerates. Our study highlights the need to consider climate change when designing strategies to manage planthoppers outbreaks.

  18. Assessing the impact of climate variability on cropping patterns in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahome, A.; Ndungu, L. W.; Ndubi, A. O.; Ellenburg, W. L.; Flores Cordova, A. I.

    2017-12-01

    Climate variability coupled with over-reliance on rain-fed agricultural production on already strained land that is facing degradation and declining soil fertility; highly impacts food security in Africa. In Kenya, dependence on the approximately 20% of land viable for agricultural production under climate stressors such as variations in amount and frequency of rainfall within the main growing season in March-April-May(MAM) and changing temperatures influence production. With time, cropping zones have changed with the changing climatic conditions. In response, the needs of decision makers to effectively assess the current cropped areas and the changes in cropping patterns, SERVIR East and Southern Africa developed updated crop maps and change maps. Specifically, the change maps depict the change in cropping patterns between 2000 and 2015 with a further assessment done on important food crops such as maize. Between 2001 and 2015 a total of 5394km2 of land was converted to cropland with 3370km2 being conversion to maize production. However, 318 sq km were converted from maize to other crops or conversion to other land use types. To assess the changes in climatic conditions, climate parameters such as precipitation trends, variation and averages over time were derived from CHIRPs (Climate Hazards Infra-red Precipitation with stations) which is a quasi-global blended precipitation dataset available at a resolution of approximately 5km. Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI) water balance model was used to assess long term trends in crop performance as a proxy for maize yields. From the results, areas experiencing declining and varying precipitation with a declining WRSI index during the long rains displayed agricultural expansion with new areas being converted to cropland. In response to climate variability, farmers have converted more land to cropland instead of adopting better farming methods such as adopting drought resistant cultivars and using better farm

  19. Butterfly Species Richness Patterns in Canada: Energy, Heterogeneity, and the Potential Consequences of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy T. Kerr

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available The distributions of most pollinator species are poorly documented despite their importance in providing ecosystem services. While these and other organisms are threatened by many aspects of the human enterprise, anthropogenic climate change is potentially the most severe threat to pollinator biodiversity. Mounting evidence demonstrates that there have already been biotic responses to the relatively small climate changes that have occurred this century. These include wholesale shifts of relatively well-documented butterfly and bird species in Europe and North America. Although studies of such phenomena are supported by circumstantial evidence, their findings are also consistent with predictions derived from current models of spatial patterns of species richness. Using new GIS methods that are highly precise and accurate, I document spatial patterns of Canadian butterfly diversity. These are strongly related to contemporary climate and particularly to potential evapotranspiration. An even more noteworthy finding is the fact that, for the first time, habitat heterogeneity, measured as the number of land cover types in each study unit, is proven to be an equally strong predictor of butterfly richness in a region where energy alone was thought to be the best predictor of diversity. Although previous studies reveal similar relationships between energy and diversity, they fail to detect the powerful link between richness and habitat heterogeneity. The butterflies of Canada provide a superb baseline for studying the effects of climate on contemporary patterns of species richness and comprise the only complete pollinator taxon for which this sort of analysis is currently possible.

  20. Climate drives temporal replacement and nested-resultant richness patterns of Scottish coastal vegetation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lewis, Rob; Marrs, Rob H.; Pakeman, Robin J.

    2016-01-01

    Beta diversity quantifies spatial and/or temporal variation in species composition. It is comprised of two distinct components, species replacement and nestedness, which derive from opposing ecological processes. Using Scotland as a case study and a β-diversity partitioning framework, we investig......Beta diversity quantifies spatial and/or temporal variation in species composition. It is comprised of two distinct components, species replacement and nestedness, which derive from opposing ecological processes. Using Scotland as a case study and a β-diversity partitioning framework, we...... investigate temporal replacement and nestedness patterns of coastal grassland species over a 34-yr time period. We aim to 1) understand the influence of two potentially pivotal processes (climate and land-use changes) on landscape-scale (5 × 5 km) temporal replacement and nestedness patterns, and 2......) investigate whether patterns from one β-diversity component can mask observable patterns in the other. We summarised key aspects of climate driven macro-ecological variation as measures of variance, long-term trends, between-year similarity and extremes, for three important climatic predictors (minimum...

  1. Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fadhel, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; Han, Dawei

    2018-05-01

    The widely used design storms in urban drainage networks has different drawbacks. One of them is that the shape of the rainfall temporal pattern is fixed regardless of climate change. However, previous studies have shown that the temporal pattern may scale with temperature due to climate change, which consequently affects peak flow. Thus, in addition to the scaling of the rainfall volume, the scaling relationship for the rainfall temporal pattern with temperature needs to be investigated by deriving the scaling values for each fraction within storm events, which is lacking in many parts of the world including the UK. Therefore, this study analysed rainfall data from 28 gauges close to the study area with a 15-min resolution as well as the daily temperature data. It was found that, at warmer temperatures, the rainfall temporal pattern becomes less uniform, with more intensive peak rainfall during higher intensive times and weaker rainfall during less intensive times. This is the case for storms with and without seasonal separations. In addition, the scaling values for both the rainfall volume and the rainfall fractions (i.e. each segment of rainfall temporal pattern) for the summer season were found to be higher than the corresponding results for the winter season. Applying the derived scaling values for the temporal pattern of the summer season in a hydrodynamic sewer network model produced high percentage change of peak flow between the current and future climate. This study on the scaling of rainfall fractions is the first in the UK, and its findings are of importance to modellers and designers of sewer systems because it can provide more robust scenarios for flooding mitigation in urban areas.

  2. Climate teleconnections and recent patterns of human and animal disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anyamba, Assaf; Linthicum, Kenneth J; Small, Jennifer L; Collins, Kathrine M; Tucker, Compton J; Pak, Edwin W; Britch, Seth C; Eastman, James Ronald; Pinzon, Jorge E; Russell, Kevin L

    2012-01-01

    Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya) in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Although Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been known to follow periods of above-normal rainfall, the timing of the outbreak events has largely been unknown. Similarly, there is inadequate knowledge on climate drivers of chikungunya outbreaks. We analyze a variety of climate and satellite-derived vegetation measurements to explain the coupling between patterns of climate variability and disease outbreaks of Rift Valley fever and chikungunya. We derived a teleconnections map by correlating long-term monthly global precipitation data with the NINO3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly index. This map identifies regional hot-spots where rainfall variability may have an influence on the ecology of vector borne disease. Among the regions are Eastern and Southern Africa where outbreaks of chikungunya and Rift Valley fever occurred 2004-2009. Chikungunya and Rift Valley fever case locations were mapped to corresponding climate data anomalies to understand associations between specific anomaly patterns in ecological and climate variables and disease outbreak patterns through space and time. From these maps we explored associations among Rift Valley fever disease occurrence locations and cumulative rainfall and vegetation index anomalies. We illustrated the time lag between the driving climate conditions and the timing of the first case of Rift Valley fever. Results showed that reported outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occurred after ∼3-4 months of sustained above-normal rainfall and associated green-up in vegetation, conditions ideal for Rift Valley fever mosquito vectors. For chikungunya we explored associations among surface air temperature, precipitation anomalies, and chikungunya outbreak locations. We found that chikungunya

  3. Climate Teleconnections and Recent Patterns of Human and Animal Disease Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anyamba, Assaf; Linthicum, Kenneth J.; Small, Jennifer L.; Collins, Kathrine M.; Tucker, Compton J.; Pak, Edwin W.; Britch, Seth C.; Eastman, James Ronald; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Russell, Kevin L.

    2012-01-01

    Background Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya) in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Although Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been known to follow periods of above-normal rainfall, the timing of the outbreak events has largely been unknown. Similarly, there is inadequate knowledge on climate drivers of chikungunya outbreaks. We analyze a variety of climate and satellite-derived vegetation measurements to explain the coupling between patterns of climate variability and disease outbreaks of Rift Valley fever and chikungunya. Methods and Findings We derived a teleconnections map by correlating long-term monthly global precipitation data with the NINO3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly index. This map identifies regional hot-spots where rainfall variability may have an influence on the ecology of vector borne disease. Among the regions are Eastern and Southern Africa where outbreaks of chikungunya and Rift Valley fever occurred 2004–2009. Chikungunya and Rift Valley fever case locations were mapped to corresponding climate data anomalies to understand associations between specific anomaly patterns in ecological and climate variables and disease outbreak patterns through space and time. From these maps we explored associations among Rift Valley fever disease occurrence locations and cumulative rainfall and vegetation index anomalies. We illustrated the time lag between the driving climate conditions and the timing of the first case of Rift Valley fever. Results showed that reported outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occurred after ∼3–4 months of sustained above-normal rainfall and associated green-up in vegetation, conditions ideal for Rift Valley fever mosquito vectors. For chikungunya we explored associations among surface air temperature, precipitation anomalies, and chikungunya outbreak

  4. Implications of climatic seasonality on activity patterns and resource use by sympatric peccaries in northern Pantanal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmann, Gabriel Selbach; Coelho, Igor Pfeifer; Bastazini, Vinicius Augusto Galvão; Cordeiro, José Luís Passos; de Oliveira, Luiz Flamarion Barbosa

    2016-03-01

    We evaluated the effects of climate seasonality from a thermal and water availability perspective on the activity patterns and resource use of Pecari tajacu and Tayassu pecari during wet and dry seasons in the northeastern Brazilian Pantanal. We used camera traps and temperature sensors to record species activity patterns in relation to temperature, established five habitat categories based on flooding intensity and local vegetation characteristics, assessed the activity patterns of each species in dry and wet periods and in artificial water bodies using circular statistical metrics, and calculated niche amplitude and overlap on three axes (temperature, time, and habitat) in both periods. Peccaries shared a strong resemblance in resource use and in their responses to seasonal variations in the tested gradients. The activity patterns of both species exhibited a significant correlation with air temperature on all the evaluated measures, and both species strongly reduced their activity when the air temperature exceeded 35 °C. High temperatures associated with low water availability were most likely responsible for the changes in species activity patterns, which resulted in an increased temporal overlap in habitat use throughout the dry season. However, the peccaries avoided intensively flooded habitats; therefore, the habitat gradient overlap was greater during the wet period. Our results show that an increase in niche overlap on the environmental gradient as a result of climatic seasonality may be partially compensated by a reduction in other niche dimensions. In this case, temporal partitioning appears to be an important, viable mechanism to reduce competition by potentially competing species.

  5. Quantifying the past and future impact of climate on outbreak patterns of bank voles (Myodes glareolus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imholt, Christian; Reil, Daniela; Eccard, Jana A; Jacob, Daniela; Hempelmann, Nils; Jacob, Jens

    2015-02-01

    Central European outbreak populations of the bank vole (Myodes glareolus Schreber) are known to cause damage in forestry and to transmit the most common type of Hantavirus (Puumala virus, PUUV) to humans. A sound estimation of potential effects of future climate scenarios on population dynamics is a prerequisite for long-term management strategies. Historic abundance time series were used to identify the key weather conditions associated with bank vole abundance, and were extrapolated to future climate scenarios to derive potential long-term changes in bank vole abundance dynamics. Classification and regression tree analysis revealed the most relevant weather parameters associated with high and low bank vole abundances. Summer temperatures 2 years prior to trapping had the highest impact on abundance fluctuation. Extrapolation of the identified parameters to future climate conditions revealed an increase in years with high vole abundance. Key weather patterns associated with vole abundance reflect the importance of superabundant food supply through masting to the occurrence of bank vole outbreaks. Owing to changing climate, these outbreaks are predicted potentially to increase in frequency 3-4-fold by the end of this century. This may negatively affect damage patterns in forestry and the risk of human PUUV infection in the long term. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

  6. Building a satellite climate diagnostics data base for real-time climate monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ropelewski, C.F.

    1991-01-01

    The paper discusses the development of a data base, the Satellite Climate Diagnostic Data Base (SCDDB), for real time operational climate monitoring utilizing current satellite data. Special attention is given to the satellite-derived quantities useful for monitoring global climate changes, the requirements of SCDDB, and the use of conventional meteorological data and model assimilated data in developing the SCDDB. Examples of prototype SCDDB products are presented. 10 refs

  7. Climate change: Time to Do Something Different

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadine ePage

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available There is now very little, if any, doubt that the global climate is changing and that this is in some way related to human behaviour through unsustainable preferences in lifestyle and organisational practices. Despite the near conclusive evidence of the positive relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and global warming, a small proportion of people remain unconvinced. More importantly, even among the much larger number of people who accept a link between human behaviour and climate change, many are inactive, or insufficiently active, in attempting to remedy the situation. We suggest this is partly because people are unaware both of how their day-to-day behaviours connect with energy consumption and carbon emissions, and of the behavioural alternatives that are available to them. This, we believe, is a key reason why individual lifestyles and organisational practices continue in an unsustainable way. We also suggest that the psychologists and behavioural researchers who seek to develop a better understanding of people’s relationship with, and reaction to, environmental issues, might also be on track to suffer a similar blindness. They risk becoming fixed on investigating a limited range of established variables, perhaps to the detriment of alternative approaches that are more practically oriented though, so far, less well explored empirically. In this article, we present the FIT framework as an alternative perspective on the variables that might underpin pro-environmental activity and behaviour change. After briefly reviewing the related literature, we outline that framework. Then we present some early empirical data to show its relationship to a range of pro-environmental indices. We follow with a discussion of the framework’s relevance in relation to pro-environmental behaviour change and make proposals for future research.

  8. Climate change: time to Do Something Different.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, Nadine; Page, Mike

    2014-01-01

    There is now very little, if any, doubt that the global climate is changing and that this is in some way related to human behavior through unsustainable preferences in lifestyle and organizational practices. Despite the near conclusive evidence of the positive relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and global warming, a small proportion of people remain unconvinced. More importantly, even among the much larger number of people who accept a link between human behavior and climate change, many are inactive, or insufficiently active, in attempting to remedy the situation. We suggest this is partly because people are unaware both of how their day-to-day behaviors connect with energy consumption and carbon emissions, and of the behavioral alternatives that are available to them. This, we believe, is a key reason why individual lifestyles and organizational practices continue in an unsustainable way. We also suggest that the psychologists and behavioral researchers who seek to develop a better understanding of people's relationship with, and reaction to, environmental issues, might also be on track to suffer a similar blindness. They risk becoming fixed on investigating a limited range of established variables, perhaps to the detriment of alternative approaches that are more practically oriented though, so far, less well explored empirically. In this article, we present the Framework for Internal Transformation as an alternative perspective on the variables that might underpin pro-environmental activity and behavior change. After briefly reviewing the related literature, we outline that framework. Then we present some early empirical data to show its relationship to a range of pro-environmental indices. We follow with a discussion of the framework's relevance in relation to pro-environmental behavior change and make proposals for future research.

  9. Changes in Spatiotemporal Precipitation Patterns in Changing Climate Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Won; Stein, Michael L.; Wang, Jiali; Kotamarthi, V. Rao; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

    2016-12-01

    Climate models robustly imply that some significant change in precipitation patterns will occur. Models consistently project that the intensity of individual precipitation events increases by approximately 6-7%/K, following the increase in atmospheric water content, but that total precipitation increases by a lesser amount (2-3%/K in the global average). Some other aspect of precipitation events must then change to compensate for this difference. We develop here a new methodology for identifying individual rainstorms and studying their physical characteristics - including starting location, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and trajectory - that allows identifying that compensating mechanism. We apply this technique to precipitation over the contiguous U.S. from both radar-based data products and high-resolution model runs simulating 100 years of business-as-usual warming. In model studies, we find that the dominant compensating mechanism is a reduction of storm size. In summer, rainstorms become more intense but smaller; in winter, rainstorm shrinkage still dominates, but storms also become less numerous and shorter duration. These results imply that flood impacts from climate change will be less severe than would be expected from changes in precipitation intensity alone. We show also that projected changes are smaller than model-observation biases, implying that the best means of incorporating them into impact assessments is via "data-driven simulations" that apply model-projected changes to observational data. We therefore develop a simulation algorithm that statistically describes model changes in precipitation characteristics and adjusts data accordingly, and show that, especially for summertime precipitation, it outperforms simulation approaches that do not include spatial information.

  10. Key principles for adapting South African settlement patterns to climate change

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Wyk, Llewellyn

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to identify key principles for adapting SA settlement patterns to climate change. Section 1 reviews the range of climate-related impacts likely to affect SA settlements using climate change models and scenarios as a context...

  11. If climate action becomes urgent: The importance of response times for various climate strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.; Stehfest, E.

    2013-01-01

    Most deliberations on climate policy are based on a mitigation response that assumes a gradually increasing reduction over time. However, situations may occur where a more urgent response is needed. A key question for climate policy in general, but even more in the case a rapid response is needed,

  12. Global Terrestrial Patterns of Precipitation Change under a Warming Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, R.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial global warming has occurred over the last century, especially since the 1950s. This study analyzes changes in global terrestrial precipitation patterns in period of 1950-2010 in an attempt to identify the influence of climate change on precipitation. The results indicate that there is no significant change globally or across latitude bands; nevertheless significant regional differences in precipitation changes are identified. The lack of a change in precipitation levels, or precipitation balance, at both the global and latitudinal band scales is a result of offsetting by opposing precipitation changes at the regional scales. Clear opposing precipitation change patterns appeared in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude band (NHM). Significant increases in precipitation were distributed throughout the western extent of NHM, including the North America, Europe and west of Central Asia, while decreases were observed over the eastern extent, namely, East Asia. A dynamical adjustment methodology was applied to precipitation data, which could identify the roles of atmospheric circulation (dynamic) and the residual (thermodynamic) forcing played in generating the opposing regional precipitation changes in the NHM. Distinct different changes of dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation were found in different regions. Increased precipitation in North America and southern Europe were caused by thermodynamic precipitation, while the dynamic precipitation presented decreased trend due to the positive sea level pressure trend. However, in northern Europe and west of Central Asia, dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation both contributed to the increased precipitation, but thermodynamic precipitation had larger amplitude. In East Asia, the decreased precipitation was a result of simultaneous decrease in dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation.

  13. Land Use Pattern, Climate Change, and Its Implication for Food ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    While Ethiopia has always suffered from climatic variability like droughts and consequently food shortage and famine, climate change is set to make the lives of the poorest even harder. Climate change has the potential to adversely affect net farm revenues of small holders with increasing land fragmentation due to ...

  14. Global patterns of NDVI-indicated vegetation extremes and their sensitivity to climate extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Guo; Liu Hongyan; Yin Yi

    2013-01-01

    Extremes in climate have significant impacts on ecosystems and are expected to increase under future climate change. Extremes in vegetation could capture such impacts and indicate the vulnerability of ecosystems, but currently have not received a global long-term assessment. In this study, a robust method has been developed to detect significant extremes (low values) in biweekly time series of global normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2006 and thus to acquire a global pattern of vegetation extreme frequency. This pattern coincides with vegetation vulnerability patterns suggested by earlier studies using different methods over different time spans, indicating a consistent mechanism of regulation. Vegetation extremes were found to aggregate in Amazonia and in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions in low and middle latitudes, while they seldom occurred in high latitudes. Among the environmental variables studied, extreme low precipitation has the highest slope against extreme vegetation. For the eight biomes analyzed, these slopes are highest in temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland, suggesting a higher sensitivity in these environments. The results presented here contradict the hypothesis that vegetation in water-limited semi-arid and semi-humid regions might be adapted to drought and suggest that vegetation in these regions (especially temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland) is highly prone to vegetation extreme events under more severe precipitation extremes. It is also suggested here that more attention be paid to precipitation-induced vegetation changes than to temperature-induced events. (letter)

  15. Macroscale patterns in body size of intertidal crustaceans provide insights on climate change effects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Jaramillo

    Full Text Available Predicting responses of coastal ecosystems to altered sea surface temperatures (SST associated with global climate change, requires knowledge of demographic responses of individual species. Body size is an excellent metric because it scales strongly with growth and fecundity for many ectotherms. These attributes can underpin demographic as well as community and ecosystem level processes, providing valuable insights for responses of vulnerable coastal ecosystems to changing climate. We investigated contemporary macroscale patterns in body size among widely distributed crustaceans that comprise the majority of intertidal abundance and biomass of sandy beach ecosystems of the eastern Pacific coasts of Chile and California, USA. We focused on ecologically important species representing different tidal zones, trophic guilds and developmental modes, including a high-shore macroalga-consuming talitrid amphipod (Orchestoidea tuberculata, two mid-shore scavenging cirolanid isopods (Excirolana braziliensis and E. hirsuticauda, and a low-shore suspension-feeding hippid crab (Emerita analoga with an amphitropical distribution. Significant latitudinal patterns in body sizes were observed for all species in Chile (21° - 42°S, with similar but steeper patterns in Emerita analoga, in California (32°- 41°N. Sea surface temperature was a strong predictor of body size (-4% to -35% °C-1 in all species. Beach characteristics were subsidiary predictors of body size. Alterations in ocean temperatures of even a few degrees associated with global climate change are likely to affect body sizes of important intertidal ectotherms, with consequences for population demography, life history, community structure, trophic interactions, food-webs, and indirect effects such as ecosystem function. The consistency of results for body size and temperature across species with different life histories, feeding modes, ecological roles, and microhabitats inhabiting a single

  16. On the interpretation of time-resolved anisotropic diffraction patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lorenz, Ulf; Møller, Klaus Braagaard; Henriksen, Niels Engholm

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we review existing systematic treatments for the interpretation of anisotropic diffraction patterns from partially aligned symmetric top molecules. Such patterns arise in the context of time-resolved diffraction experiments. We calculate diffraction patterns for ground-state Na...

  17. Spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of global scale climate-groundwater interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuthbert, M. O.; Gleeson, T. P.; Moosdorf, N.; Schneider, A. C.; Hartmann, J.; Befus, K. M.; Lehner, B.

    2017-12-01

    The interactions between groundwater and climate are important to resolve in both space and time as they influence mass and energy transfers at Earth's land surface. Despite the significance of these processes, little is known about the spatio-temporal distribution of such interactions globally, and many large-scale climate, hydrological and land surface models oversimplify groundwater or exclude it completely. In this study we bring together diverse global geomatic data sets to map spatial patterns in the sensitivity and degree of connectedness between the water table and the land surface, and use the output from a global groundwater model to assess the locations where the lateral import or export of groundwater is significant. We also quantify the groundwater response time, the characteristic time for groundwater systems to respond to a change in boundary conditions, and map its distribution globally to assess the likely dynamics of groundwater's interaction with climate. We find that more than half of the global land surface significantly exports or imports groundwater laterally. Nearly 40% of Earth's landmass has water tables that are strongly coupled to topography with water tables shallow enough to enable a bi-directional exchange of moisture with the climate system. However, only a small proportion (around 12%) of such regions have groundwater response times of 100 years or less and have groundwater fluxes that would significantly respond to rapid environmental changes over this timescale. We last explore fundamental relationships between aridity, groundwater response times and groundwater turnover times. Our results have wide ranging implications for understanding and modelling changes in Earth's water and energy balance and for informing robust future water management and security decisions.

  18. Managing time in a changing world: Timing of avian annual cycle stages under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tomotani, B.M.

    2017-01-01

    Animals need to time their seasonal activities such as breeding and migration to occur at the right time. They use cues from the environment to predict changes and organise their activities accordingly. What happens, then, when climate change interferes with this ability to make predictions? Climate

  19. Phenological Characterization of Desert Sky Island Vegetation Communities with Remotely Sensed and Climate Time Series Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart E. Marsh

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and variability are expected to impact the synchronicity and interactions between the Sonoran Desert and the forested sky islands which represent steep biological and environmental gradients. The main objectives were to examine how well satellite greenness time series data and derived phenological metrics (e.g., season start, peak greenness can characterize specific vegetation communities across an elevation gradient, and to examine the interactions between climate and phenological metrics for each vegetation community. We found that representative vegetation types (11, varying between desert scrub, mesquite, grassland, mixed oak, juniper and pine, often had unique seasonal and interannual phenological trajectories and spatial patterns. Satellite derived land surface phenometrics (11 for each of the vegetation communities along the cline showed numerous distinct significant relationships in response to temperature (4 and precipitation (7 metrics. Satellite-derived sky island vegetation phenology can help assess and monitor vegetation dynamics and provide unique indicators of climate variability and patterns of change.

  20. Time patterns in multiple acute cerebral infarcts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novotny, Vojtech; Khanevski, Andrej N; Thomassen, Lars; Waje-Andreassen, Ulrike; Naess, Halvor

    2017-12-01

    Background Multiple acute cerebral infarcts in different arterial territories may be caused by several emboli concurrently or successively. Aim and/or hypothesis We hypothesized that the time from stroke onset to magnetic resonance imaging may shed light on underlying mechanisms of multiple acute cerebral infarcts. Methods This is a prospective observational cohort study involving 2697 ischemic stroke patients conducted at Haukeland University Hospital between February 2006 and October 2013. Only patients with diffusion-weighted imaging lesions in more than one arterial territory (left or right anterior circulation or posterior circulation) were included. The time from stroke onset to magnetic resonance imaging was registered and correlated with the etiology of multiple acute cerebral infarcts in each patient. Results We reviewed 2697 consecutive patients and 2220 (82%) underwent magnetic resonance imaging. Among these 2125 (96%) had diffusion-weighted imaging lesions. We found 187 multiple acute cerebral infarct patients who were then included in the study. There was positive correlation (0.20; p time to magnetic resonance imaging and frequency of multiple acute cerebral infarcts caused by internal carotid stenosis. There was no correlation (-.02) between time to magnetic resonance imaging and frequency of multiple acute cerebral infarcts caused by cardiogenic embolism. Conclusions Multiple acute cerebral infarcts associated with cardiogenic embolism seem to happen concurrently as a shower of emboli whereas multiple acute cerebral infarcts associated with internal carotid artery stenosis seem to occur successively separated by hours or days.

  1. Useful Pattern Mining on Time Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goumatianos, Nikitas; Christou, Ioannis T; Lindgren, Peter

    2013-01-01

    % or higher increase (or, alternatively, decrease) in a chosen property of the stock (e.g. close-value) within a given time-window (e.g. 5 days). Initial results from a first prototype implementation of the architecture show that after training on a large set of stocks, the system is capable of finding...

  2. Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Wetterhall

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs through regional climate models (RCMs potentially improves the usability of the output for hydrological impact studies. However, a further downscaling or interpolation of precipitation from RCMs is often needed to match the precipitation characteristics at the local scale. This study analysed three Model Output Statistics (MOS techniques to adjust RCM precipitation; (1 a simple direct method (DM, (2 quantile-quantile mapping (QM and (3 a distribution-based scaling (DBS approach. The modelled precipitation was daily means from 16 RCMs driven by ERA40 reanalysis data over the 1961–2000 provided by the ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts project over a small catchment located in the Midlands, UK. All methods were conditioned on the entire time series, separate months and using an objective classification of Lamb's weather types. The performance of the MOS techniques were assessed regarding temporal and spatial characteristics of the precipitation fields, as well as modelled runoff using the HBV rainfall-runoff model. The results indicate that the DBS conditioned on classification patterns performed better than the other methods, however an ensemble approach in terms of both climate models and downscaling methods is recommended to account for uncertainties in the MOS methods.

  3. Analysis of time-varying psoriasis lesion image patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maletti, Gabriela Mariel; Ersbøll, Bjarne Kjær; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    2004-01-01

    The multivariate alteration detection transform is applied to pairs of within and between time varying registered psoriasis image patterns. Color band contribution to the variates explaining maximal change is analyzed.......The multivariate alteration detection transform is applied to pairs of within and between time varying registered psoriasis image patterns. Color band contribution to the variates explaining maximal change is analyzed....

  4. Time activity patterns: a case of south Durban, South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Matooane, M

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Exposure modelling in south Durban is constrained by a lack of population specific time-activity patterns data. We argue that the application of time-activity patterns from elsewhere in the world in exposure modelling in south Durban would...

  5. Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blois, Jessica L.; Williams, John W.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Ferrier, Simon

    2013-01-01

    “Space-for-time” substitution is widely used in biodiversity modeling to infer past or future trajectories of ecological systems from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the foundational assumption—that drivers of spatial gradients of species composition also drive temporal changes in diversity—rarely is tested. Here, we empirically test the space-for-time assumption by constructing orthogonal datasets of compositional turnover of plant taxa and climatic dissimilarity through time and across space from Late Quaternary pollen records in eastern North America, then modeling climate-driven compositional turnover. Predictions relying on space-for-time substitution were ∼72% as accurate as “time-for-time” predictions. However, space-for-time substitution performed poorly during the Holocene when temporal variation in climate was small relative to spatial variation and required subsampling to match the extent of spatial and temporal climatic gradients. Despite this caution, our results generally support the judicious use of space-for-time substitution in modeling community responses to climate change.

  6. NASA Climate Days: Promoting Climate Literacy One Ambassador and One Event at a Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, H. M.; Lewis, P. M.; Chambers, L. H.; Millham, R. A.; Richardson, A.

    2012-12-01

    presentations from the training, along with downloadable Climate Day Kit materials. Utilizing informal educators from museums, aquariums, libraries and other similar venues allow the hard-to-understand, sometimes-controversial, topic of climate change to be presented to the public in tailored events that suit an individual community's needs. Included in the process of scheduling and executing these climate events, the Ambassadors participate in virtual conferences to discuss progress, to ensure proper evaluation and to allow ample time for questions from the trainers and scientists. This ensures an accurate stream of information from the scientist to the public in a fashion that can be understood and digested by the layperson, helping them to make better-informed decisions about societal issues related to global climate change. Through a series of local Climate Day events, it is hoped that the public will have the opportunity to have first hand experience with the topic of climate change, leaving with a better understanding of its scientific basis. Outcome: This paper will summarize the various methods and strategies used in the Climate Day training events. A discussion of methods that work and those that do not for informal education will help provide a better understanding of the challenges faced in educating the public on such a controversial and hard-to-understand topic.

  7. Modification of a design storm pattern for urban drainage systems considering the impact of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uruya Weesakul

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Inundation of urban areas due to heavy rainfall more frequently occurs in many large cities all over the world. This is more evident now due to the impacts of climate change. The design rainfall storm pattern, an input used to design urban drainage systems, plays an important role for developing sufficient drainage capacity for big cities. There are few studies in Thailand focusing on the accuracy of the Chicago Design Storm, which has been widely used for decades, in estimation of the peak intensity of rainfall for drainage systems. This study aims to first examine the accuracy of the Chicago Design Storm using observed data. Second, the impacts of climate change on rainfall intensity and on the Chicago Design Storm were investigated. Bangkok and its vicinity were selected as study area. Rainfall storm data with 1-5 minutes records and 15 minute records were collected from the meteorological station at AIT over the past 21 years and from the rainfall station in Sukhumvit area of Bangkok for 15 years. The Gumbel distribution was used in a Frequency Analysis to establish IDF Curves. The CDS, Yen & Chow and Sifalda methods were used to synthesize a Design Storm Pattern. Comparison of results of these methods with the observed data revealed that the CDS has good agreement in shape, i.e. peak intensity and time to peak. The CDS is still recommended for use in practice. However, MAPE was also used to evaluate accuracy of the synthesized CDS in comparison with the observed data. It was found that the CDS should be modified to reduce its peak intensity. Moreover, the impact of climate was also investigated. The Equidistance Quantile-Matching Method was adopted to compute IDF curves to include the climate change impact. The Global Climate Model (GCM, and HasGEM2-ES with RCP4.5 were used to generate rainfall data for the next 25 years. The changes in IDF curves due to climate change were compared. With the changed IDF curves, the peak intensity of design

  8. The time scales of the climate-economy feedback and the climatic cost of growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallegatte, Stephane

    2005-04-01

    This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modelling. In a second part, a climate-economy feedback is defined and characterized. It is found that: (i) it has a 70-year characteristic time, which is long when compared to the system's other time-scales, and it cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change; (ii) mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback of an emission reduction on the economy is significant only after a 20-year delay and really efficient after a one-century delay; (iii) the IPCC methodology, that neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions, is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth. Usefully, this metric for climate change damages is particularly independent of the baseline scenario. (orig.)

  9. The time scales of the climate-economy feedback and the climatic cost of growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hallegatte, Stephane [CIRED - CNRM, Nogent-sur-Marne (France)

    2005-04-01

    This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modelling. In a second part, a climate-economy feedback is defined and characterized. It is found that: (i) it has a 70-year characteristic time, which is long when compared to the system's other time-scales, and it cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change; (ii) mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback of an emission reduction on the economy is significant only after a 20-year delay and really efficient after a one-century delay; (iii) the IPCC methodology, that neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions, is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth. Usefully, this metric for climate change damages is particularly independent of the baseline scenario. (orig.)

  10. LAND USE PATTERN, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND ITS IMPLICATION ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    2012-01-30

    Jan 30, 2012 ... Abstract. Climate change is perhaps the greatest challenge facing the world today. In Africa, a continent which is and still remains vulnerable to the impact of climate change, the effects cannot be overemphasized in view of the already existing pathetic conditions of most developing countries in Africa.

  11. Strong biotic influences on regional patterns of climate regulation services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Serna-Chavez, H.M.; Swenson, N.G.; Weiser, M.D.; van Loon, E.E.; Bouten, W.; Davidson, M.D.; van Bodegom, P.M.

    2017-01-01

    Climate regulation services from forests are an important leverage in global-change mitigation treaties. Like most ecosystem services, climate regulation is the product of various ecological phenomena with unique spatial features. Elucidating which abiotic and biotic factors relate to spatial

  12. Warning times for species extinctions due to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanton, Jessica C; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Pearson, Richard G; Akçakaya, H Resit

    2015-03-01

    Climate change is likely to become an increasingly major obstacle to slowing the rate of species extinctions. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for identifying climate-vulnerable species, based on the assumption that established systems such as the IUCN Red List need revising or replacing because they were not developed to explicitly consider climate change. However, no assessment approach has been tested to determine its ability to provide advanced warning time for conservation action for species that might go extinct due to climate change. To test the performance of the Red List system in this capacity, we used linked niche-demographic models with habitat dynamics driven by a 'business-as-usual' climate change scenario. We generated replicate 100-year trajectories for range-restricted reptiles and amphibians endemic to the United States. For each replicate, we categorized the simulated species according to IUCN Red List criteria at annual, 5-year, and 10-year intervals (the latter representing current practice). For replicates that went extinct, we calculated warning time as the number of years the simulated species was continuously listed in a threatened category prior to extinction. To simulate data limitations, we repeated the analysis using a single criterion at a time (disregarding other listing criteria). Results show that when all criteria can be used, the Red List system would provide several decades of warning time (median = 62 years; >20 years for 99% of replicates), but suggest that conservation actions should begin as soon as a species is listed as Vulnerable, because 50% of replicates went extinct within 20 years of becoming uplisted to Critically Endangered. When only one criterion was used, warning times were substantially shorter, but more frequent assessments increased the warning time by about a decade. Overall, we found that the Red List criteria reliably provide a sensitive and precautionary way to assess extinction

  13. Gambler's fallacy, hot hand belief, and the time of patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongbin Wang

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The gambler's fallacy and the hot hand belief have been classified as two exemplars of human misperceptions of random sequential events. This article examines the times of pattern occurrences where a fair or biased coin is tossed repeatedly. We demonstrate that, due to different pattern composition, two different statistics (mean time and waiting time can arise from the same independent Bernoulli trials. When the coin is fair, the mean time is equal for all patterns of the same length but the waiting time is the longest for streak patterns. When the coin is biased, both mean time and waiting time change more rapidly with the probability of heads for a streak pattern than for a non-streak pattern. These facts might provide a new insight for understanding why people view streak patterns as rare and remarkable. The statistics of waiting time may not justify the prediction by the gambler's fallacy, but paying attention to streaks in the hot hand belief appears to be meaningful in detecting the changes in the underlying process.

  14. Methods for assessment of climate variability and climate changes in different time-space scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobanov, V.; Lobanova, H.

    2004-01-01

    Main problem of hydrology and design support for water projects connects with modern climate change and its impact on hydrological characteristics as observed as well as designed. There are three main stages of this problem: - how to extract a climate variability and climate change from complex hydrological records; - how to assess the contribution of climate change and its significance for the point and area; - how to use the detected climate change for computation of design hydrological characteristics. Design hydrological characteristic is the main generalized information, which is used for water management and design support. First step of a research is a choice of hydrological characteristic, which can be as a traditional one (annual runoff for assessment of water resources, maxima, minima runoff, etc) as well as a new one, which characterizes an intra-annual function or intra-annual runoff distribution. For this aim a linear model has been developed which has two coefficients connected with an amplitude and level (initial conditions) of seasonal function and one parameter, which characterizes an intensity of synoptic and macro-synoptic fluctuations inside a year. Effective statistical methods have been developed for a separation of climate variability and climate change and extraction of homogeneous components of three time scales from observed long-term time series: intra annual, decadal and centural. The first two are connected with climate variability and the last (centural) with climate change. Efficiency of new methods of decomposition and smoothing has been estimated by stochastic modeling and well as on the synthetic examples. For an assessment of contribution and statistical significance of modern climate change components statistical criteria and methods have been used. Next step has been connected with a generalization of the results of detected climate changes over the area and spatial modeling. For determination of homogeneous region with the same

  15. What trees tell us about the climate of past times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graf, W.; Trimborn, P.; Stichler, W.

    1999-01-01

    The air temperatures in Central Europe have risen by approximately one degree centigrade since the last century. Climate models predict a further warming of the earth's atmosphere. The causes are still disputed. Most scientists attribute the rise in temperature to the increase in greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere. Others point out that the observed variations will probably not exceed the extent of the natural climate fluctuations that occurred during the Holocene period - the warm period that began approximately 11,000 years ago. Who is right? Palaeoclimatologists try to assess the natural variability of the climate, and to decide whether the 20th century is really unusual in comparison with the preceding millennia. There are various climate archives available for this. The Institute of Hydrology investigates fossilised trees. Fossilised trees store information about the climate in earlier times in, amongst others, cellulose: specifically in the ratios of the stable isotopes of carbon ( 13 C/ 12 C), hydrogen ( 2 H/ 1 H) and oxygen ( 18 O/ 16 O). As a result of the development of annual rings, the trees represent a climate archive with high temporal resolution. (orig.) [de

  16. Response time patterns in a stated choice experiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Börjesson, Maria; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    This paper studies how response times vary between unlabelled binary choice occasions in a stated choice (SC) experiment, with alternatives differing with respect to in-vehicle travel time and travel cost. The pattern of response times is interpreted as an indicator of the cognitive processes...... employed by the respondents when making their choices. We find clear signs of reference-dependence in response times in the form of a strong gain–loss asymmetry. Moreover, different patterns of response times for travel time and travel cost indicate that these attributes are processed in different ways...

  17. Effect of climate change on crop production patterns with implications to transport flows and inland waterways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    This project analyzed the demand for transportation capacity and changes in transportation flows on : inland waterways due to shifts in crop production patterns induced by climate change. Shifts in the crop : production mix have been observed in rece...

  18. Linkages between large-scale climate patterns and the dynamics of Alaskan caribou populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyle Joly; David R. Klein; David L. Verbyla; T. Scott Rupp; F. Stuart Chapin

    2011-01-01

    Recent research has linked climate warming to global declines in caribou and reindeer (both Rangifer tarandus) populations. We hypothesize large-scale climate patterns are a contributing factor explaining why these declines are not universal. To test our hypothesis for such relationships among Alaska caribou herds, we calculated the population growth...

  19. Ice age climate, evolutionary constraints and diversity patterns of European dung beetles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hortal, Joaquín; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F.; Bini, Luis Mauricio

    2011-01-01

    Current climate and Pleistocene climatic changes are both known to be associated with geographical patterns of diversity. We assess their associations with the European Scarabaeinae dung beetles, a group with high dispersal ability and well-known adaptations to warm environments. By assessing spa...

  20. Relationship between Eurasian large-scale patterns and regional climate variability over the Black and Baltic Seas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stankunavicius, G.; Pupienis, D. [Vilnius Univ. (Lithuania). Dept. of Hydrology and Climatology; Basharin, D. [National Academy of Science of Ukraine, Sevastopol (Ukraine). Sevastopol Marine Hydrophysical Inst.

    2012-11-01

    Using a NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset and the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis approach we studied interannual to decadal variabilities of the sea-level air pressure (SLP) and the surface air temperature (SAT) fields over Eurasia during the 2nd part of the 20th century. Our results agree with those of the previous studies, which conclude that Eurasian trends are the result of storm-path changes driven by the interdecadal behaviour of the NAO-like meridional dipole pattern in the Atlantic. On interannual and decadal time scales, significant synchronous correlations between correspondent modes of SAT and SLP EOF patterns were found. This fact suggests that there is a strong and stable Eurasian interrelationship between SAT and SLP large-scale fields which affects the local climate of two sub-regions: the Black and Baltic Seas. The climate variability in these sub-regions was studied in terms of Eurasian large-scale surface-temperature and air-pressure patterns responses. We concluded that the sub-regional climate variability substantially differs over the Black and Baltic Seas, and depends on different Eurasian large-scale patterns. We showed that the Baltic Sea region is influenced by the patterns arising primary from NAO-like meridional dipole, as well as Scandinavian patterns, while the Black Sea's SAT/SLP variability is influenced mainly by the second mode EOF (eastern Atlantic) and large scale tropospheric wave structures. (orig.)

  1. Regime Behavior in Paleo-Reconstructed Streamflow: Attributions to Atmospheric Dynamics, Synoptic Circulation and Large-Scale Climate Teleconnection Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

    2017-12-01

    Studies have shown that streamflow behavior and dynamics have a significant link with climate and climate variability. Patterns of persistent regime behavior from extended streamflow records in many watersheds justify investigating large-scale climate mechanisms as potential drivers of hydrologic regime behavior and streamflow variability. Understanding such streamflow-climate relationships is crucial to forecasting/simulation systems and the planning and management of water resources. In this study, hidden Markov models are used with reconstructed streamflow to detect regime-like behaviors - the hidden states - and state transition phenomena. Individual extreme events and their spatial variability across the basin are then verified with the identified states. Wavelet analysis is performed to examine the signals over time in the streamflow records. Joint analyses of the climatic data in the 20th century and the identified states are undertaken to better understand the hydroclimatic connections within the basin as well as important teleconnections that influence water supply. Compositing techniques are used to identify atmospheric circulation patterns associated with identified states of streamflow. The grouping of such synoptic patterns and their frequency are then examined. Sliding time-window correlation analysis and cross-wavelet spectral analysis are performed to establish the synchronicity of basin flows to the identified synoptic and teleconnection patterns. The Missouri River Basin (MRB) is examined in this study, both as a means of better understanding the synoptic climate controls in this important watershed and as a case study for the techniques developed here. Initial wavelet analyses of reconstructed streamflow at major gauges in the MRB show multidecadal cycles in regime behavior.

  2. Hydrospatial Analysis of Inundation Patterns for a Restored Floodplain to Evaluate Potential Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whipple, A. A.; Viers, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    Interaction between rivers and their floodplains create dynamic physical conditions supporting freshwater ecosystems. The natural flood regimes to which native species are adapted are often profoundly altered by interacting factors including water management, land use change, and climate change. Reintroducing dynamic flood regimes through enhancing river-floodplain connectivity is a common floodplain restoration objective. However, it is often difficult to determine how various actions (or a combination of actions), such as levee setbacks or environmental flow releases, will impact physical conditions relevant to ecological functions, such as depth, velocity, duration, timing, and connectivity, and how these might change in the future. Understanding changes to these dynamic conditions requires improved quantification of spatiotemporal variability of floodplain inundation patterns, in essence a floodplain's hydrospatial regime. The research presented here develops this concept by quantifying the hydrospatial regime of a floodplain along the lower Cosumnes River, California, both before and after levee-removal restoration, and uses this to evaluate how effects of restoration may be altered with changing hydrology due to climate change. This approach uses spatial analysis in R to summarize metrics based on estimated spatially-distributed depth and velocity, derived from 2D hydrodynamic modeling output for pre- and post-restoration conditions. This is performed for an historical and two future periods of daily flow of the largely unregulated Cosumnes River, driven by a subset of global climate models. We show that responses to restoration vary across the hydrospatial domain and further consider these differences in floodplain dynamics in relation to hydroclimatic change. This research refines expectations for restoration and overall provides readily applied methods to inform planning and management of floodplain ecosystems within the context of climate change

  3. Climatic changes and uplift patterns - past, present and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjoerck, S.; Svensson, N.O.

    1992-11-01

    Our knowledge about the Pleistocene (= last 2.5 million years) climatic changes and their global environmental effects on the Earth system, e.g. the glacial-interglacial cycles, the sea level changes, and the significant crustal movements in glaciated regions, has increased greatly during the last decades. This report outlines the historical background and the present state-of-the-arts on these matters. Because the driving mechanisms and feed-back effects behind these changes have been more and more discussed in earth-science literature, analysed, and probably also better and better understood, it has become possible to present theoretical models for future climates (not including mans influence on the earth system). The report presents and discusses one such climate model (short of predicting mans future behaviour and its consequent effect on climate) and its likely implications on future climatic and glacial conditions, and bedrock movements, with focus on the Stockholm region. Possibilities for quaternary geologists to establish and map post glacial fault zones, related to irregular bedrock movements, are also briefly outlined in the report. (222 refs.)

  4. Spatial stabilization and intensification of moistening and drying rate patterns under future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavaillaz, Yann; Joussaume, Sylvie; Bony, Sandrine; Braconnot, Pascale

    2016-08-01

    Precipitation projections are usually presented as the change in precipitation between a fixed current baseline and a particular time in the future. However, upcoming generations will be affected in a way probably more related to the moving trend in precipitation patterns, i.e. to the rate and the persistence of regional precipitation changes from one generation to the next, than to changes relative to a fixed current baseline. In this perspective, we propose an alternative characterization of the future precipitation changes predicted by general circulation models, focusing on the precipitation difference between two subsequent 20-year periods. We show that in a business-as-usual emission pathway, the moistening and drying rates increase by 30-40 %, both over land and ocean. As we move further over the twenty-first century, more regions exhibit a significant rate of precipitation change, while the patterns become geographically stationary and the trends persistent. The stabilization of the geographical rate patterns that occurs despite the acceleration of global warming can be physically explained: it results from the increasing contribution of thermodynamic processes compared to dynamic processes in the control of precipitation change. We show that such an evolution is already noticeable over the last decades, and that it could be reversed if strong mitigation policies were quickly implemented. The combination of intensification and increasing persistence of precipitation rate patterns may affect the way human societies and natural ecosystems adapt to climate change, especially in the Mediterranean basin, in Central America, in South Asia and in the Arctic.

  5. Circumpolar spatio-temporal patterns and contributing climatic factors of wildfire activity in the Arctic tundra from 2001-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masrur, Arif; Petrov, Andrey N.; DeGroote, John

    2018-01-01

    Recent years have seen an increased frequency of wildfire events in different parts of Arctic tundra ecosystems. Contemporary studies have largely attributed these wildfire events to the Arctic’s rapidly changing climate and increased atmospheric disturbances (i.e. thunderstorms). However, existing research has primarily examined the wildfire-climate dynamics of individual large wildfire events. No studies have investigated wildfire activity, including climatic drivers, for the entire tundra biome across multiple years, i.e. at the planetary scale. To address this limitation, this paper provides a planetary/circumpolar scale analyses of space-time patterns of tundra wildfire occurrence and climatic association in the Arctic over a 15 year period (2001-2015). In doing so, we have leveraged and analyzed NASA Terra’s MODIS active fire and MERRA climate reanalysis products at multiple temporal scales (decadal, seasonal and monthly). Our exploratory spatial data analysis found that tundra wildfire occurrence was spatially clustered and fire intensity was spatially autocorrelated across the Arctic regions. Most of the wildfire events occurred in the peak summer months (June-August). Our multi-temporal (decadal, seasonal and monthly) scale analyses provide further support to the link between climate variability and wildfire activity. Specifically, we found that warm and dry conditions in the late spring to mid-summer influenced tundra wildfire occurrence, spatio-temporal distribution, and fire intensity. Additionally, reduced average surface precipitation and soil moisture levels in the winter-spring period were associated with increased fire intensity in the following summer. These findings enrich contemporary knowledge on tundra wildfire’s spatial and seasonal patterns, and shed new light on tundra wildfire-climate relationships in the circumpolar context. Furthermore, this first pan-Arctic analysis provides a strong incentive and direction for future studies

  6. Interglacial climate dynamics and advanced time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudelsee, Manfred; Bermejo, Miguel; Köhler, Peter; Lohmann, Gerrit

    2013-04-01

    Studying the climate dynamics of past interglacials (IGs) helps to better assess the anthropogenically influenced dynamics of the current IG, the Holocene. We select the IG portions from the EPICA Dome C ice core archive, which covers the past 800 ka, to apply methods of statistical time series analysis (Mudelsee 2010). The analysed variables are deuterium/H (indicating temperature) (Jouzel et al. 2007), greenhouse gases (Siegenthaler et al. 2005, Loulergue et al. 2008, L¨ü thi et al. 2008) and a model-co-derived climate radiative forcing (Köhler et al. 2010). We select additionally high-resolution sea-surface-temperature records from the marine sedimentary archive. The first statistical method, persistence time estimation (Mudelsee 2002) lets us infer the 'climate memory' property of IGs. Second, linear regression informs about long-term climate trends during IGs. Third, ramp function regression (Mudelsee 2000) is adapted to look on abrupt climate changes during IGs. We compare the Holocene with previous IGs in terms of these mathematical approaches, interprete results in a climate context, assess uncertainties and the requirements to data from old IGs for yielding results of 'acceptable' accuracy. This work receives financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (Project ClimSens within the DFG Research Priority Program INTERDYNAMIK) and the European Commission (Marie Curie Initial Training Network LINC, No. 289447, within the 7th Framework Programme). References Jouzel J, Masson-Delmotte V, Cattani O, Dreyfus G, Falourd S, Hoffmann G, Minster B, Nouet J, Barnola JM, Chappellaz J, Fischer H, Gallet JC, Johnsen S, Leuenberger M, Loulergue L, Luethi D, Oerter H, Parrenin F, Raisbeck G, Raynaud D, Schilt A, Schwander J, Selmo E, Souchez R, Spahni R, Stauffer B, Steffensen JP, Stenni B, Stocker TF, Tison JL, Werner M, Wolff EW (2007) Orbital and millennial Antarctic climate variability over the past 800,000 years. Science 317:793. Köhler P, Bintanja R

  7. High Performance Embedded System for Real-Time Pattern Matching

    CERN Document Server

    Sotiropoulou, Calliope Louisa; The ATLAS collaboration; Gkaitatzis, Stamatios; Citraro, Saverio; Giannetti, Paola; Dell'Orso, Mauro

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we present an innovative and high performance embedded system for real-time pattern matching. This system is based on the evolution of hardware and algorithms developed for the field of High Energy Physics (HEP) and more specifically for the execution of extremely fast pattern matching for tracking of particles produced by proton-proton collisions in hadron collider experiments. A miniaturised version of this complex system is being developed for pattern matching in generic image processing applications. The system works as a contour identifier able to extract the salient features of an image. It is based on the principles of cognitive image processing, which means that it executes fast pattern matching and data reduction mimicking the operation of the human brain. The pattern matching can be executed by a custom designed Associative Memory (AM) chip. The reference patterns are chosen by a complex training algorithm implemented on an FPGA device. Post processing algorithms (e.g. pixel clustering...

  8. Fragility of estimated spatial temperature patterns in climate field reconstructions of the Common Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.; Emile-Geay, J.; Vaccaro, A.; Guillot, D.; Rajaratnam, B.

    2013-12-01

    Climate field reconstructions (CFRs) of the Common Era can provide insight into dynamical causes of low-frequency climate variability. For instance, the Mann et al. [2009] study found that the reconstructed sea-surface temperature difference between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age (hereinafter MCA - LIA) is marked by a La-Niña like pattern over the tropical Pacific, and proposed dynamical explanations for this observation. In this talk, we assess the robustness of such spatial patterns. First we examine the impact of the CFR methodology. Starting with the network of Mann et al. [2008] (hereinafter M08), we perform temperature reconstruction using four different CFR techniques: RegEM-TTLS [Schneider, 2001], the Mann et al. [2009] implementation of RegEM-TTLS (hereinafter M09), Canonical Correlation Analysis [Smerdon et al., 2010, CCA] and GraphEM [Guillot et al., in revision]. We find that results are greatly method-dependent even with identical inputs. While the M09 reconstruction displays a La Niña-like pattern over the tropical Pacific for MCA - LIA, CCA gives a neutral pattern, RegEM-TTLS and GraphEM both display El Niño-like pattern but show different amplitudes. Next we assess a given CFR technique's sensitivity to the selection of inputs. Proxies are selected based on the statistical significance of their correlations with HadCRUT3v annual temperature. A multiple hypothesis test [Ventura et al., 2004] is conducted to preclude spurious correlations. This choice has a large impact on resulting CFRs. In particular, whether the correlation is calculated between local or regional temperature-proxy pairs determines the number of significant records included in the proxy network. This in turn greatly affects the reconstructed spatial patterns and the Northern Hemispheric mean temperature time series with all CFR methods investigated. In order to further analyze CFRs' sensitivities to the abovementioned procedural choices, we assemble an

  9. Simulated Vegetation Response to Climate Change in California: The Importance of Seasonal Production Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J. B.; Pitts, B.

    2013-12-01

    MC1 dynamic global vegetation model simulates vegetation response to climate change by simulating vegetation production, soil biogeochemistry, plant biogeography and fire. It has been applied at a wide range of spatial scales, yet the spatio-temporal patterns of simulated vegetation production, which drives the model's response to climate change, has not been examined in detail. We ran MC1 for California at a relatively fine scale, 30 arc-seconds, for the historical period (1895-2006) and for the future (2007-2100), using downscaled data from four CMIP3-based climate projections: A2 and B1 GHG emissions scenarios simulated by PCM and GFDL GCMs. The use of these four climate projections aligns our work with a body of climate change research work commissioned by the California Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program. The four climate projections vary not only in terms of changes in their annual means, but in the seasonality of projected climate change. We calibrated MC1 using MODIS NPP data for 2000-2011 as a guide, and adapting a published technique for adjusting simulated vegetation production by increasing the simulated plant rooting depths. We evaluated the simulation results by comparing the model output for the historical period with several benchmark datasets, summarizing by EPA Level 3 Ecoregions. Multi-year summary statistics of model predictions compare moderately well with Kuchler's potential natural vegetation map, National Biomass and Carbon Dataset, Leenhouts' compilation of fire return intervals, and, of course, the MODIS NPP data for 2000-2011. When we compared MC1's monthly NPP values with MODIS monthly GPP data (2000-2011), however, the seasonal patterns compared very poorly, with NPP/GPP ratio for spring (Mar-Apr-May) often exceeding 1, and the NPP/GPP ratio for summer (Jun-Jul-Aug) often flattening to zero. This suggests MC1's vegetation production algorithms are overly biased for spring production at the cost of summer production. We

  10. Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prell, W.L.; Webb, T. III.

    1992-08-01

    Predicting the potential climatic effects of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide requires the continuing development of climate models. Confidence in the predictions will be much enhanced once the models are thoroughly tested in terms of their ability to simulate climates that differ significantly from today's climate. As one index of the magnitude of past climate change, the global mean temperature increase during the past 18,000 years is similar to that predicted for carbon dioxide--doubling. Simulating the climatic changes of the past 18,000 years, as well as the warmer-than-present climate of 6000 years ago and the climate of the last interglacial, around 126,000 years ago, provides an excellent opportunity to test the models that are being used in global climate change research. During the past several years, we have used paleoclimatic data to test the accuracy of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, Version 0, after changing its boundary conditions to those appropriate for past climates. We have assembled regional and near-global paleoclimatic data sets of pollen, lake level, and marine plankton data and calibrated many of the data in terms of climatic variables. We have also developed methods that permit direct quantitative comparisons between the data and model results. Our research has shown that comparing the model results with the data is an evolutionary process, because the models, the data, and the methods for comparison are continually being improved. During 1992, we have completed new modeling experiments, further analyzed previous model experiments, compiled new paleodata, made new comparisons between data and model results, and participated in workshops on paleoclimatic modeling

  11. Climate induced changes in the circulation and dispersal patterns of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    C dated box cores from the eastern, the central and the western regions were studied to determine climate induced changes in the hydrography. Clay assemblages have spatial and temporal changes and are markedly different in the eastern and the western bay. From a high abundance of the clay smectite, which has its ...

  12. Disaggregating climatic trends by classification of circulation patterns

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Huth, Radan

    2001-01-01

    Roč. 21, - (2001), s. 135-153 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAB3042004 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3042911 Keywords : classification * climatic trends * atmospheric circulation Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.523, year: 2001

  13. Geographical patterns in cyanobacteria distribution: climate influence at regional scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitois, Frédéric; Thoraval, Isabelle; Baurès, Estelle; Thomas, Olivier

    2014-01-28

    Cyanobacteria are a component of public health hazards in freshwater environments because of their potential as toxin producers. Eutrophication has long been considered the main cause of cyanobacteria outbreak and proliferation, whereas many studies emphasized the effect of abiotic parameters (mainly temperature and light) on cell growth rate or toxin production. In view of the growing concerns of global change consequences on public health parameters, this study attempts to enlighten climate influence on cyanobacteria at regional scale in Brittany (NW France). The results show that homogeneous cyanobacteria groups are associated with climatic domains related to temperature, global radiation and pluviometry, whereas microcystins (MCs) occurrences are only correlated to local cyanobacteria species composition. As the regional climatic gradient amplitude is similar to the projected climate evolution on a 30-year timespan, a comparison between the present NW and SE situations was used to extrapolate the evolution of geographical cyanobacteria distribution in Brittany. Cyanobacteria composition should shift toward species associated with more frequent Microcystins occurrences along a NW/SE axis whereas lakes situated along a SW/NE axis should transition to species (mainly Nostocales) associated with lower MCs detection frequencies.

  14. Socioeconomic response patterns of farmers to climate change in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The potential of African agriculture to support livelihoods for millions of people and employment for up to 60% labour has been heavily impeded by the growing threat of climate change. This challenge has left farmers to face the pressure to adjust the agricultural systems under widespread poverty, high population and low ...

  15. Spatial patterns of ENSO's interannual influences on lilacs vary with time and periodicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Congsheng; Ji, Zhenming; Wei, Zhongwang

    2017-04-01

    The influences of solar activity and large-scale climate modes (e.g. the El Niño/Southern Oscillation - 'ENSO') have been identified in many geophysical processes. However, few studies have attempted to investigate the frequency characteristics and corresponding spatial patterns of the interannual influence of either solar activity or large-scale climate modes on phenology. In this study, the influences of solar activity (represented by sunspot number 'SSN') and ENSO on the first leaf and bloom dates of the common lilac and cloned lilac in the United States were analyzed for time series spanning ≥ 33 years using the wavelet coherence method. The spatial patterns in the influence of ENSO on the first leaf and bloom dates were investigated for different times and periodicities, using time series of ≥ 20 years. The combined influences of solar activity and ENSO on the first leaf and bloom dates of lilacs were identified for most of the stations with records spanning ≥ 33 years. In the 11-year band, both increasing solar activity (SSN) and El Niño caused delays in the first leaf and bloom events of the cloned lilac during the 1980s in the northeastern United States. The frequency characteristics and the spatial patterns of the influence of ENSO on the first leaf day and first bloom day were essentially consistent, and such spatial patterns vary with time and periodicity.

  16. Contrasting patterns of climatic changes during the Holocene across the Italian Peninsula reconstructed from pollen data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Peyron

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Lake-level records from Italy suggest that patterns of precipitation in the central Mediterranean during the Holocene were divided between the north and south, but a scarcity of reliable palaeoclimatic records in the north and central-southern Mediterranean means new evidence is needed to validate this hypothesis. We provide robust quantitative estimates of Holocene climate in the Mediterranean region using four high-resolution pollen records from northern (Lakes Ledro and Accesa and southern (Lakes Trifoglietti and Pergusa Italy. Multiple methods are used to provide an improved assessment of the palaeoclimatic reconstruction uncertainty. The multi-method approach uses the pollen-based weighted averaging, weighted-average partial least-squares regression, modern analogue technique, and the non-metric multidimensional scaling/generalized additive model methods. We use independent lake-level data to validate the precipitation reconstructions. Our results support a climatic partition between northern and southern Italy during the Holocene, confirming the hypothesis of opposing mid-Holocene summer precipitation regimes in the Mediterranean. The northern sites (Ledro, Accesa are characterized by minima for summer precipitation and lake levels during the early to mid-Holocene, while the southern sites (Trifoglietti, Pergusa are marked by maxima for precipitation and lake levels at the same time. Both pollen-inferred precipitation and lake levels indicate the opposite pattern during the late Holocene, a maximum in northern Italy and a minimum in southern Italy/Sicily. Summer temperatures show the same partitioning, with warm conditions in northern Italy and cool conditions in Sicily during the early/mid-Holocene, and a reversal during the late Holocene. Comparison with marine cores from the Aegean Sea suggests that climate trends and gradients observed in Italy show strong similarities with those recognized from the Aegean Sea, and more generally

  17. On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. C. Verdon-Kidd

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper regional (synoptic and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a clear distinction between wet and dry synoptic types at each station. The influence of large-scale climate modes on the frequency and timing of the regional synoptic patterns is also investigated. This analysis revealed that phase changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD and/or the Southern Annular Mode (SAM are associated with a shift in the relative frequency of wet and dry synoptic types on an annual to inter-annual timescale. In addition, the relative frequency of synoptic types is shown to vary on a multi-decadal timescale, associated with changes in the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO. Importantly, these results highlight the potential to utilise the link between the regional synoptic patterns derived in this study and large-scale climate modes to improve rainfall forecasting for Victoria, both in the short- (i.e. seasonal and long-term (i.e. decadal/multi-decadal scale. In addition, the regional and large-scale climate drivers identified in this study provide a benchmark by which the performance of Global Climate Models (GCMs may be assessed.

  18. Accounting for sampling patterns reverses the relative importance of trade and climate for the global sharing of exotic plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofaer, Helen R.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

    2017-01-01

    AimThe distributions of exotic species reflect patterns of human-mediated dispersal, species climatic tolerances and a suite of other biotic and abiotic factors. The relative importance of each of these factors will shape how the spread of exotic species is affected by ongoing economic globalization and climate change. However, patterns of trade may be correlated with variation in scientific sampling effort globally, potentially confounding studies that do not account for sampling patterns.LocationGlobal.Time periodMuseum records, generally from the 1800s up to 2015.Major taxa studiedPlant species exotic to the United States.MethodsWe used data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) to summarize the number of plant species with exotic occurrences in the United States that also occur in each other country world-wide. We assessed the relative importance of trade and climatic similarity for explaining variation in the number of shared species while evaluating several methods to account for variation in sampling effort among countries.ResultsAccounting for variation in sampling effort reversed the relative importance of trade and climate for explaining numbers of shared species. Trade was strongly correlated with numbers of shared U.S. exotic plants between the United States and other countries before, but not after, accounting for sampling variation among countries. Conversely, accounting for sampling effort strengthened the relationship between climatic similarity and species sharing. Using the number of records as a measure of sampling effort provided a straightforward approach for the analysis of occurrence data, whereas species richness estimators and rarefaction were less effective at removing sampling bias.Main conclusionsOur work provides support for broad-scale climatic limitation on the distributions of exotic species, illustrates the need to account for variation in sampling effort in large biodiversity databases, and highlights the

  19. Climate controls on fire pattern in African and Australian continents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubkova, M.; Boschetti, L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    Studies have primarily attributed the recent decrease in global fire activity in many savanna and grassland regions as detected by the Global Fire Emission Database (GFEDv4s) to anthropogenic changes such as deforestation and cropland expansion (Andela et al. 2017, van der Werf et al. 2008). These changes have occurred despite increases in fire weather season length (Jolly et al. 2015). Efforts to better resolve retrospective and future changes in fire activity require refining the host of influences on societal and environmental factors on fire activity. In this study, we analyzed how climate variability influences interannual fire activity in Africa and Australia, the two continents most affected by fire and responsible for over half of the global pyrogenic emissions. We expand on the analysis presented in Andela et al. (2017) by using the most recent Collection 6 MODIS MCD64 Burned Area Product and exploring the explanatory power of a broader suite of climate variables that have been previously shown to explain fire variability (Bowman et al. 2017). We examined which climate metrics show a strong interannual relationship with the amount of burned area and fire size accounting for antecedent and in-season atmospheric conditions. Fire characteristics were calculated using the 500m resolution MCD64A1 product (2002-2016); the analysis was conducted at the ecoregion scale, and further stratified by landcover using a broad aggregation (forest, shrublands and grasslands) of the Landcover CCI maps (CCI-LC, 2014); all agricultural areas fires were excluded from the analysis. The results of the analysis improve our knowledge of climate controls on fire dynamics in the most fire-prone places in the world which is critical for statistical fire and vegetation models. Being able to predict the impact of climate on fire activity has a strategic importance in designing future fire management scenarios, help to avoid degradation of biodiversity and ecosystem services and improve

  20. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Scandinavia Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Scandinavia teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal component...

  1. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) East Atlantic Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the East Atlantic Teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal...

  2. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) West Pacific Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the West Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal...

  3. Time patterns and perceptions of online learning success factors

    OpenAIRE

    Cortés, Armando; Barberà, Elena

    2013-01-01

    Online learning provides the opportunity to work on academic tasks at any time at the same time as doing other activities, such as using in web 2.0 tools. This study identifies factors that contribute to success in online learning from the students¿ perspective and their relationship with time patterns. A survey of learning outputs was used to find relationships between students¿ satisfaction, knowledge acquisition and knowledge transfer with time for working on academic tasks. In this study,...

  4. Spatiotemporal dynamics of climate and agricultural landscape patterns in Xinjiang, China (2000-2015)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, T.; Du, Q. Y.; Zou, J. Q.

    2017-07-01

    This study integrated remote sensing, geographic information system, landscape ecology, and spatial analysis, and is based on meteorological data and four remote sensing images (2000-2015). The aim of this study was to analyse climate trends and spatiotemporal changes in agricultural landscape patterns, and calculate agricultural ecosystem service value (AESV) in Xinjiang, China. In addition, correlation analysis further enabled the quantification of agricultural landscape pattern changes in response to climate change. Results showed that temperature and precipitation registered a fluctuating ascending trend in most areas of Xinjiang. Landscape diversity and fragmentation increased during the same period. AESV showed a trend of gradual increase, the waste disposal and the water retention are the most important ecological functions. Besides, agricultural landscape pattern significantly correlated to climate and the effect of precipitation on agricultural landscape patterns has been greater than the effect of temperature during 2000-2015.

  5. High Performance Embedded System for Real-Time Pattern Matching

    CERN Document Server

    Sotiropoulou, Calliope Louisa; The ATLAS collaboration; Gkaitatzis, Stamatios; Citraro, Saverio; Giannetti, Paola; Dell'Orso, Mauro

    2016-01-01

    We present an innovative and high performance embedded system for real-time pattern matching. This system is based on the evolution of hardware and algorithms developed for the field of High Energy Physics (HEP) and more specifically for the execution of extremely fast pattern matching for tracking of particles produced by proton-proton collisions in hadron collider experiments. A miniaturized version of this complex system is being developed for pattern matching in generic image processing applications. The design uses the flexibility of Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) and the powerful Associative Memory Chip (ASIC) to achieve real-time performance. The system works as a contour identifier able to extract the salient features of an image. It is based on the principles of cognitive image processing, which means that it executes fast pattern matching and data reduction mimicking the operation of the human brain.

  6. Patterns and biases of climate change threats in the IUCN Red List.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trull, Nicholas; Böhm, Monika; Carr, Jamie

    2018-02-01

    International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments rely on published data and expert inputs, and biases can be introduced where underlying definitions and concepts are ambiguous. Consideration of climate change threat is no exception, and recently numerous approaches to assessing the threat of climate change to species have been developed. We explored IUCN Red List assessments of amphibians and birds to determine whether species listed as threatened by climate change display distinct patterns in terms of habitat occupied and additional nonclimatic threats faced. We compared IUCN Red List data with a published data set of species' biological and ecological traits believed to infer high vulnerability to climate change and determined whether distributions of climate change-threatened species on the IUCN Red List concur with those of climate change-threatened species identified with the trait-based approach and whether species possessing these traits are more likely to have climate change listed as a threat on the IUCN Red List. Species in some ecosystems (e.g., grassland, shrubland) and subject to particular threats (e.g., invasive species) were more likely to have climate change as a listed threat. Geographical patterns of climate change-threatened amphibians and birds on the IUCN Red List were incongruent with patterns of global species richness and patterns identified using trait-based approaches. Certain traits were linked to increases or decreases in the likelihood of a species being threatened by climate change. Broad temperature tolerance of a species was consistently related to an increased likelihood of climate change threat, indicating counterintuitive relationships in IUCN assessments. To improve the robustness of species assessments of the vulnerability or extinction risk associated with climate change, we suggest IUCN adopt a more cohesive approach whereby specific traits highlighted by our results are considered in Red List

  7. Soil Carbon in the Time of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amundson, R.

    2017-12-01

    The Earth is in the midst of human induced climate change driven by the emission of greenhouse gases largely through fossil fuels and land conversion. Drastically and rapidly reducing the net emissions are critical to avoid societally disruptive climate changes by the end of the Century. In the midst of this change are soils, that have a vast store of C and for a given change in conditions, can either rapidly add or remove C from the atmosphere. Mainstream soil and agricultural science has focused on the former for nearly two decades, conducting research and estimates of the potential global C sequestration potential of soils due to changed land management. This has culminated with the French 4 per mille initiative. While it is possible that in some countries, at some times, economic or political forces may drive farming practices one way or another, the estimated requirement that 30 to 70% of all farms on Earth adopt the best practices needed to achieve this goal is simply unrealistic. In addition, it diverts attention and resources from much more viable alternatives, and is clouding the growing need for climate adaption strategies that soil and environmental science will need to provide. Soil C sequestration will never be a significant "bridge" to C-free energy during the next few decades, which is the time frame of critical importance. Most likely, soil will be part of the CO2 sources. Few agricultural sequestration studies explicitly consider the positive feedback between soil C and temperature, and on-going loss of soil C to the atmosphere. Truly comprehensive studies of the combined management vs. climate feedback effects on soil C are few, but tend to conclude that even managed soils will continue to be a net source of CO2 this century. Only by reducing fossil fuel C emissions will we successfully, and in a time frame required by the Earth's climate system, contend with the greenhouse gas issue. Better soil C management is unlikely to slow or hold off

  8. Stochastic characterization of regional circulation patterns for climate model diagnosis and estimation of local precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zorita, E.; Hughes, J.P.

    1993-01-01

    Two statistical approaches for linking large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and daily local rainfall are described and applied to several GCM (general circulation model) climate simulations. The ultimate objective is to simulate local precipitation associated with alternative climates. The index stations are located near the West and East North American coasts. The first method is based on CART analysis (Classification and Regression trees). It finds the classification of observed daily SLR (sea level pressure) fields in weather types that are most strongly associated with the presence/absence of rainfall in a set of index stations. The best results were obtained for winter rainfall for the West Coast, where a set of physically reasonable weather types could be identified, whereas for the East Coast the rainfall process seemed to be spatially less coherent. The GCM simulations were validated against observations in terms of probability of occurrence and survival time of these weather states. Some discrepancies werefound but there was no systematic bias, indicating that this behavior depends on the particular dynamics of each model. This classification method was then used for the generation of daily rainfall time series from the daily SLP fields from historical observation and from the GCM simulations. Whereas the mean rainfall and probability distributions were rather well replicated, the simulated dry periods were in all cases shorter than in the rainfall observations. The second rainfall generator is based on the analog method and uses information on the evolution of the SLP field in several previous days. It was found to perform reasonably well, although some downward bias in the simulated rainfall persistence was still present. Rainfall changes in a 2xCO 2 climate were investigated by applying both methods to the output of a greenhouse-gas experiment. The simulated precipitation changes were small. (orig.)

  9. High performance embedded system for real-time pattern matching

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sotiropoulou, C.-L., E-mail: c.sotiropoulou@cern.ch [University of Pisa, Largo B. Pontecorvo 3, 56127 Pisa (Italy); INFN-Pisa Section, Largo B. Pontecorvo 3, 56127 Pisa (Italy); Luciano, P. [University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Gaetano di Biasio 43, Cassino 03043 (Italy); INFN-Pisa Section, Largo B. Pontecorvo 3, 56127 Pisa (Italy); Gkaitatzis, S. [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki (Greece); Citraro, S. [University of Pisa, Largo B. Pontecorvo 3, 56127 Pisa (Italy); INFN-Pisa Section, Largo B. Pontecorvo 3, 56127 Pisa (Italy); Giannetti, P. [INFN-Pisa Section, Largo B. Pontecorvo 3, 56127 Pisa (Italy); Dell' Orso, M. [University of Pisa, Largo B. Pontecorvo 3, 56127 Pisa (Italy); INFN-Pisa Section, Largo B. Pontecorvo 3, 56127 Pisa (Italy)

    2017-02-11

    In this paper we present an innovative and high performance embedded system for real-time pattern matching. This system is based on the evolution of hardware and algorithms developed for the field of High Energy Physics and more specifically for the execution of extremely fast pattern matching for tracking of particles produced by proton–proton collisions in hadron collider experiments. A miniaturized version of this complex system is being developed for pattern matching in generic image processing applications. The system works as a contour identifier able to extract the salient features of an image. It is based on the principles of cognitive image processing, which means that it executes fast pattern matching and data reduction mimicking the operation of the human brain. The pattern matching can be executed by a custom designed Associative Memory chip. The reference patterns are chosen by a complex training algorithm implemented on an FPGA device. Post processing algorithms (e.g. pixel clustering) are also implemented on the FPGA. The pattern matching can be executed on a 2D or 3D space, on black and white or grayscale images, depending on the application and thus increasing exponentially the processing requirements of the system. We present the firmware implementation of the training and pattern matching algorithm, performance and results on a latest generation Xilinx Kintex Ultrascale FPGA device. - Highlights: • A high performance embedded system for real-time pattern matching is proposed. • It is based on a system developed for High Energy Physics experiment triggers. • It mimics the operation of the human brain (cognitive image processing). • The process can be executed on 2D and 3D, black and white or grayscale images. • The implementation uses FPGAs and custom designed associative memory (AM) chips.

  10. Climate induced changes in the circulation and dispersal patterns of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    N–S and 1430km E–W at 15. ◦. N. Several valleys mark the surface of the fan in the central region ... Onkar S Chauhan and E Vogelsang. Figure 1. Prevalent regional hydrography (Shetye et al. 1991, 1993; Verkey et al ..... of Commerce, Washington DC, Vol. 3. Passega R 1964 Grain size representation by CM pattern as.

  11. Functional and phylogenetic relatedness in temporary wetland invertebrates: current macroecological patterns and implications for future climatic change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruhí, Albert; Boix, Dani; Gascón, Stéphanie; Sala, Jordi; Batzer, Darold P

    2013-01-01

    In freshwater ecosystems, species compositions are known to be determined hierarchically by large to small‑scale environmental factors, based on the biological traits of the organisms. However, in ephemeral habitats this heuristic framework remains largely untested. Although temporary wetland faunas are constrained by a local filter (i.e., desiccation), we propose its magnitude may still depend on large-scale climate characteristics. If this is true, climate should be related to the degree of functional and taxonomic relatedness of invertebrate communities inhabiting seasonal wetlands. We tested this hypothesis in two ways. First, based on 52 biological traits for invertebrates, we conducted a case study to explore functional trends among temperate seasonal wetlands differing in the harshness (i.e., dryness) of their dry season. After finding evidence of trait filtering, we addressed whether it could be generalized across a broader climatic scale. To this end, a meta-analysis (225 seasonal wetlands spread across broad climatic categories: Arid, Temperate, and Cold) allowed us to identify whether an equivalent climate-dependent pattern of trait richness was consistent between the Nearctic and the Western Palearctic. Functional overlap of invertebrates increased from mild (i.e., Temperate) to harsher climates (i.e., Arid and Cold), and phylogenetic clustering (using taxonomy as a surrogate) was highest in Arid and lowest in Temperate wetlands. We show that, (i) as has been described in streams, higher relatedness than would be expected by chance is generally observed in seasonal wetland invertebrate communities; and (ii) this relatedness is not constant but climate-dependent, with the climate under which a given seasonal wetland is located determining the functional overlap and the phylogenetic clustering of the community. Finally, using a space-for-time substitution approach we suggest our results may anticipate how the invertebrate biodiversity embedded in these

  12. Functional and phylogenetic relatedness in temporary wetland invertebrates: current macroecological patterns and implications for future climatic change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert Ruhí

    Full Text Available In freshwater ecosystems, species compositions are known to be determined hierarchically by large to small‑scale environmental factors, based on the biological traits of the organisms. However, in ephemeral habitats this heuristic framework remains largely untested. Although temporary wetland faunas are constrained by a local filter (i.e., desiccation, we propose its magnitude may still depend on large-scale climate characteristics. If this is true, climate should be related to the degree of functional and taxonomic relatedness of invertebrate communities inhabiting seasonal wetlands. We tested this hypothesis in two ways. First, based on 52 biological traits for invertebrates, we conducted a case study to explore functional trends among temperate seasonal wetlands differing in the harshness (i.e., dryness of their dry season. After finding evidence of trait filtering, we addressed whether it could be generalized across a broader climatic scale. To this end, a meta-analysis (225 seasonal wetlands spread across broad climatic categories: Arid, Temperate, and Cold allowed us to identify whether an equivalent climate-dependent pattern of trait richness was consistent between the Nearctic and the Western Palearctic. Functional overlap of invertebrates increased from mild (i.e., Temperate to harsher climates (i.e., Arid and Cold, and phylogenetic clustering (using taxonomy as a surrogate was highest in Arid and lowest in Temperate wetlands. We show that, (i as has been described in streams, higher relatedness than would be expected by chance is generally observed in seasonal wetland invertebrate communities; and (ii this relatedness is not constant but climate-dependent, with the climate under which a given seasonal wetland is located determining the functional overlap and the phylogenetic clustering of the community. Finally, using a space-for-time substitution approach we suggest our results may anticipate how the invertebrate biodiversity

  13. Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desai, A R; Wohlfahrt, G; Zeeman, M J; Katata, G; Mauder, M; Schmid, H-P; Eugster, W; Montagnani, L; Gianelle, D

    2016-01-01

    Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies. (letter)

  14. Nonlinear effects on Turing patterns: Time oscillations and chaos

    KAUST Repository

    Aragón, J. L.

    2012-08-08

    We show that a model reaction-diffusion system with two species in a monostable regime and over a large region of parameter space produces Turing patterns coexisting with a limit cycle which cannot be discerned from the linear analysis. As a consequence, the patterns oscillate in time. When varying a single parameter, a series of bifurcations leads to period doubling, quasiperiodic, and chaotic oscillations without modifying the underlying Turing pattern. A Ruelle-Takens-Newhouse route to chaos is identified. We also examine the Turing conditions for obtaining a diffusion-driven instability and show that the patterns obtained are not necessarily stationary for certain values of the diffusion coefficients. These results demonstrate the limitations of the linear analysis for reaction-diffusion systems. © 2012 American Physical Society.

  15. Future climate and changes in flow patterns in Czech headwater catchments

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Benčoková, A.; Krám, P.; Hruška, Jakub

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 49, č. 1 (2011), s. 1-15 ISSN 0936-577X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : climate change impact * flow pattern * regional climate scenarios * Headwater catchments * hydrological modelling * Broo90 Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 1.994, year: 2011

  16. Climatic and landscape controls on travel time distributions across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Rohini; Rao, Suresh; Hesse, Falk; Borchardt, Dietrich; Fleckenstein, Jan; Jawitz, James; Musolff, Andreas; Rakovec, Oldrich; Samaniego, Luis; Yang, Soohyun; Zink, Matthias; Attinger, Sabine

    2017-04-01

    Travel time distributions (TTDs) are fundamental descriptors to characterize the functioning of storage, mixing and release of water and solutes in a river basin. Identifying the relative importance (and controls) of climate and landscape attributes on TDDs is fundamental to improve our understanding of the underlying mechanism controlling the spatial heterogeneity of TTDs, and their moments (e.g., mean TT). Studies aimed at elucidating such controls have focused on either theoretical developments to gain (physical) insights using mostly synthetic datasets or empirical relationships using limited datasets from experimental sites. A study painting a general picture of emerging controls at a continental scale is still lacking. In this study, we make use of spatially resolved hydrologic fluxes and states generated through an observationally driven, mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM; www.ufz.de/mhm) to comprehensively characterize the dominant controls of climate and landscape attributes on TDDs in the vadose zone across the entire European region. mHM uses a novel Multiscale Parameter Regionalization (MPR; Samaniego et al., 2010 and Kumar et al., 2013) scheme that encapsulates fine scale landscape attributes (e.g., topography, soil, and vegetation characteristics) to account for the sub-grid variability in model parameterization. The model was established at 25 km spatial resolution to simulate the daily gridded fluxes and states over Europe for the period 1955-2015. We utilized recent developments in TTDs theory (e.g., Botter et al., 2010, Harman et al., 2011) to characterize the stationary and non-stationary behavior of water particles transported through the vadose zone at every grid cell. Our results suggest a complex set of interactions between climate and landscape properties controlling the spatial heterogeneity of the mean travel time (TT). The spatial variability in the mean TT across the Pan-EU generally follows the climatic gradient with lower values in humid

  17. Time scales of coupled modes in the tropical climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, S. I.; Bejarano, L.; Jin, F. F.

    2003-04-01

    Climate variability in the tropical Pacific has a rich frequency spectrum that partly results from coupled modes different time scales. We examined the contributions of the thermocline feedback (the vertical advection of anomalous subsurface temperature by the mean upwelling) and zonal advective feedback (the zonal advection of mean sea surface temperature by anomalous current) in determining the time scales of the coupled modes. Firstly, using a simple ocean model, we study the dependence of maximum amplitudes and locations of equatorial zonal current and thermocline on the time scales of the wind forcing. Then we examine in a linearized version of coupled Zebiak-Cane model the impacts of these feedbacks on the co-existence of leading coupled modes of different time scales. For slowly varying wind forcing, amplitudes of zonal currents are very weak and locate at western Pacific, whereas the thermocline response is strong. The zonal advective feedback thus tends but to be of secondly importance in a slow mode of interannual periodicity although it plays a dominating role in a fast coupled mode of near annual periodicity. The changes in the basic state of the coupled system can have significant impacts on the relative importance of the two main feedbacks and thus the periodicity and stability of the leading modes of the coupled tropical Pacific climate system.

  18. Just-in-time Time Data Analytics and Visualization of Climate Simulations using the Bellerophon Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anantharaj, V. G.; Venzke, J.; Lingerfelt, E.; Messer, B.

    2015-12-01

    Climate model simulations are used to understand the evolution and variability of earth's climate. Unfortunately, high-resolution multi-decadal climate simulations can take days to weeks to complete. Typically, the simulation results are not analyzed until the model runs have ended. During the course of the simulation, the output may be processed periodically to ensure that the model is preforming as expected. However, most of the data analytics and visualization are not performed until the simulation is finished. The lengthy time period needed for the completion of the simulation constrains the productivity of climate scientists. Our implementation of near real-time data visualization analytics capabilities allows scientists to monitor the progress of their simulations while the model is running. Our analytics software executes concurrently in a co-scheduling mode, monitoring data production. When new data are generated by the simulation, a co-scheduled data analytics job is submitted to render visualization artifacts of the latest results. These visualization output are automatically transferred to Bellerophon's data server located at ORNL's Compute and Data Environment for Science (CADES) where they are processed and archived into Bellerophon's database. During the course of the experiment, climate scientists can then use Bellerophon's graphical user interface to view animated plots and their associated metadata. The quick turnaround from the start of the simulation until the data are analyzed permits research decisions and projections to be made days or sometimes even weeks sooner than otherwise possible! The supercomputer resources used to run the simulation are unaffected by co-scheduling the data visualization jobs, so the model runs continuously while the data are visualized. Our just-in-time data visualization software looks to increase climate scientists' productivity as climate modeling moves into exascale era of computing.

  19. Climate Data Provenance Tracking for Just-In-Time Computation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fries, S.; Nadeau, D.; Doutriaux, C.; Williams, D. N.

    2016-12-01

    The "Climate Data Management System" (CDMS) was created in 1996 as part of the Climate Data Analysis Tools suite of software. It provides a simple interface into a wide variety of climate data formats, and creates NetCDF CF-Compliant files. It leverages the NumPy framework for high performance computation, and is an all-in-one IO and computation package. CDMS has been extended to track manipulations of data, and trace that data all the way to the original raw data. This extension tracks provenance about data, and enables just-in-time (JIT) computation. The provenance for each variable is packaged as part of the variable's metadata, and can be used to validate data processing and computations (by repeating the analysis on the original data). It also allows for an alternate solution for sharing analyzed data; if the bandwidth for a transfer is prohibitively expensive, the provenance serialization can be passed in a much more compact format and the analysis rerun on the input data. Data provenance tracking in CDMS enables far-reaching and impactful functionalities, permitting implementation of many analytical paradigms.

  20. Etude Climat no. 38 'The economic tools of Chinese climate and energy policy at the time of the at the time of the 12. five-year plan'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Di; Delbosc, Anais

    2013-01-01

    Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Reports' offer in-depth analyses on a given subject. This issue addresses the following points: The largest developing country and the main source of GHG emissions in the world, China has undertaken in its 12. five-year plan (2011-2015) to strengthen the strategy initiated in the 11. five-year plan. It proposes making the Chinese economy more flexible - hence its change of name to five-year 'guide'-, particularly through increased use of market instruments. This change applies across all fields, including energy and climate policies. Economic instruments are especially expected to help achieve the 2020 strategic energy and climate objectives which China committed to at the Copenhagen Conference in 2009. The five-year plan forms a programmatic document requiring translation into law to develop details of the measures required to achieve the objectives set out. Following the publication of the 12. five-year plan, the Chinese central government therefore introduced a series of regulations to promote energy conservation and reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including at a regional and sectoral level. Local governments are particularly expected to participate, by incorporating progress in achieving their climate and energy policy objectives into the system of administrative appraisal. In relation to energy policy, the economic tools put in place exist side by side with pre-existing administrative tools and remain subject to very strong administrative control. They concern the adjustment of both the production pattern - reinforcement of exchanges of production rights and renewable energy production quotas - and the structure of energy consumption - market for energy savings certificates coordinated at a regional level. In terms of climate policy, the Chinese government is testing a range of instruments, including market and taxation mechanisms. The 12. five-year plan notably includes the development of a

  1. Learning Driving Behavior by Timed Syntactic Pattern Recognition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verwer, S.E.; De Weerdt, M.M.; Witteveen, C.

    2011-01-01

    We advocate the use of an explicit time representation in syntactic pattern recognition because it can result in more succinct models and easier learning problems. We apply this approach to the real-world problem of learning models for the driving behavior of truck drivers. We discretize the values

  2. Influence of cowpea and soybean intercropping pattern and time of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The treatments included two legume crops (soybean and cowpea), their planting time (simultaneously and at first weeding of sorghum),three planting patterns of legumes (double alternate plants within sorghum plants, two rows in between two rows of sorghum and both double alternate plants and two rows in between two ...

  3. Environmental Sound Recognition Using Time-Frequency Intersection Patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuan Guo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental sound recognition is an important function of robots and intelligent computer systems. In this research, we use a multistage perceptron neural network system for environmental sound recognition. The input data is a combination of time-variance pattern of instantaneous powers and frequency-variance pattern with instantaneous spectrum at the power peak, referred to as a time-frequency intersection pattern. Spectra of many environmental sounds change more slowly than those of speech or voice, so the intersectional time-frequency pattern will preserve the major features of environmental sounds but with drastically reduced data requirements. Two experiments were conducted using an original database and an open database created by the RWCP project. The recognition rate for 20 kinds of environmental sounds was 92%. The recognition rate of the new method was about 12% higher than methods using only an instantaneous spectrum. The results are also comparable with HMM-based methods, although those methods need to treat the time variance of an input vector series with more complicated computations.

  4. Clinical implications of ST segment time-course recovery patterns ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Arun Kumar Agnihotri

    KEY WORDS: Exercise stress test; ST segment time course patterns. INTRODUCTIONᴪ. The diagnosis of angina is made on the grounds of typical pain and its relationship to effort and rest. Clinical assessment to determine whether chest pain is of ischemic origin (angina) is often ambiguous when a history of angina is ...

  5. Multi-Scale Influences of Climate, Spatial Pattern, and Positive Feedback on 20th Century Tree Establishment at Upper Treeline in the Rocky Mountains, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, G. P.

    2009-12-01

    The influences of 20th century climate, spatial pattern of tree establishment, and positive feedback were assessed to gain a more holistic understanding of how broad scale abiotic and local scale biotic components interact to govern upper treeline ecotonal dynamics along a latitudinal gradient (ca. 35°N-45°N) in the Rocky Mountains. Study sites (n = 22) were in the Bighorn, Medicine Bow, Front Range, and Sangre de Cristo mountain ranges. Dendroecological techniques were used for a broad scale analysis of climate at treeline. Five-year age-structure classes were compared with identical five-year bins of 20th century climate data using Spearman’s rank correlation and regime shift analysis. Local scale biotic interactions capable of ameliorating broad scale climate inputs through positive feedback were examined by using Ripley’s K to determine the spatial patterns of tree establishment above timberline. Significant correlations (p Medicine Bow and Sangre de Cristo Mountains primarily contain clustered spatial patterns of trees above timberline, which indicates a strong reliance on the amelioration of abiotic conditions through positive feedback with nearby vegetation. Although clustered spatial patterns likely originate in response to harsh abiotic conditions such as drought or constant strong winds, the local scale biotic interactions within a clustered formation of trees appears to override the immediate influence of broad scale climate. This is evidenced both by a lack of significant correlations between tree establishment and climate in these mountain ranges, as well as the considerable lag times between initial climate regime shifts and corresponding shifts in tree age structure. Taken together, this research suggests that the influence of broad scale climate on upper treeline ecotonal dynamics is contingent on the local scale spatial patterns of tree establishment and related influences of positive feedback. These findings have global implications for our

  6. Time-dependent patterns in quasivertical cylindrical binary convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Arantxa; Mercader, Isabel; Batiste, Oriol

    2018-02-01

    This paper reports on numerical investigations of the effect of a slight inclination α on pattern formation in a shallow vertical cylindrical cell heated from below for binary mixtures with a positive value of the Soret coefficient. By using direct numerical simulation of the three-dimensional Boussinesq equations with Soret effect in cylindrical geometry, we show that a slight inclination of the cell in the range α ≈0.036 rad =2∘ strongly influences pattern selection. The large-scale shear flow (LSSF) induced by the small tilt of gravity overcomes the squarelike arrangements observed in noninclined cylinders in the Soret regime, stratifies the fluid along the direction of inclination, and produces an enhanced separation of the two components of the mixture. The competition between shear effects and horizontal and vertical buoyancy alters significantly the dynamics observed in noninclined convection. Additional unexpected time-dependent patterns coexist with the basic LSSF. We focus on an unsual periodic state recently discovered in an experiment, the so-called superhighway convection state (SHC), in which ascending and descending regions of fluid move in opposite directions. We provide numerical confirmation that Boussinesq Navier-Stokes equations with standard boundary conditions contain the essential ingredients that allow for the existence of such a state. Also, we obtain a persistent heteroclinic structure where regular oscillations between a SHC pattern and a state of nearly stationary longitudinal rolls take place. We characterize numerically these time-dependent patterns and investigate the dynamics around the threshold of convection.

  7. It's time for a crisper image of the Face of the Earth: Landsat and climate time series for massive land cover & climate change mapping at detailed resolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pons, Xavier; Miquel, Ninyerola; Oscar, González-Guerrero; Cristina, Cea; Pere, Serra; Alaitz, Zabala; Lluís, Pesquer; Ivette, Serral; Joan, Masó; Cristina, Domingo; Maria, Serra Josep; Jordi, Cristóbal; Chris, Hain; Martha, Anderson; Juanjo, Vidal

    2014-05-01

    Combining climate dynamics and land cover at a relative coarse resolution allows a very interesting approach to global studies, because in many cases these studies are based on a quite high temporal resolution, but they may be limited in large areas like the Mediterranean. However, the current availability of long time series of Landsat imagery and spatially detailed surface climate models allow thinking on global databases improving the results of mapping in areas with a complex history of landscape dynamics, characterized by fragmentation, or areas where relief creates intricate climate patterns that can be hardly monitored or modeled at coarse spatial resolutions. DinaCliVe (supported by the Spanish Government and ERDF, and by the Catalan Government, under grants CGL2012-33927 and SGR2009-1511) is the name of the project that aims analyzing land cover and land use dynamics as well as vegetation stress, with a particular emphasis on droughts, and the role that climate variation may have had in such phenomena. To meet this objective is proposed to design a massive database from long time series of Landsat land cover products (grouped in quinquennia) and monthly climate records (in situ climate data) for the Iberian Peninsula (582,000 km2). The whole area encompasses 47 Landsat WRS2 scenes (Landsat 4 to 8 missions, from path 197 to 202 and from rows 30 to 34), and 52 Landsat WRS1 scenes (for the previous Landsat missions, 212 to 221 and 30 to 34). Therefore, a mean of 49.5 Landsat scenes, 8 quinquennia per scene and a about 6 dates per quinquennium , from 1975 to present, produces around 2376 sets resulting in 30 m x 30 m spatial resolution maps. Each set is composed by highly coherent geometric and radiometric multispectral and multitemporal (to account for phenology) imagery as well as vegetation and wetness indexes, and several derived topographic information (about 10 Tbyte of data). Furthermore, on the basis on a previous work: the Digital Climatic Atlas of

  8. Application of hierarchical clustering method to classify of space-time rainfall patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chang, Tu-Je

    2010-05-01

    Understanding the local precipitation patterns is essential to the water resources management and flooding mitigation. The precipitation patterns can vary in space and time depending upon the factors from different spatial scales such as local topological changes and macroscopic atmospheric circulation. The spatiotemporal variation of precipitation in Taiwan is significant due to its complex terrain and its location at west pacific and subtropical area, where is the boundary between the pacific ocean and Asia continent with the complex interactions among the climatic processes. This study characterizes local-scale precipitation patterns by classifying the historical space-time precipitation records. We applied the hierarchical ascending clustering method to analyze the precipitation records from 1960 to 2008 at the six rainfall stations located in Lan-yang catchment at the northeast of the island. Our results identify the four primary space-time precipitation types which may result from distinct driving forces from the changes of atmospheric variables and topology at different space-time scales. This study also presents an important application of the statistical downscaling to combine large-scale upper-air circulation with local space-time precipitation patterns.

  9. Impact of Urban Climate Landscape Patterns on Land Surface Temperature in Wuhan, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasha Wang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Facing urban warming, mitigation and adaptation strategies are not efficient enough to tackle excessive urban heat, especially at the local scale. The local climate zone (LCZ classification scheme is employed to examine the diversity and complexity of the climate response within a city. This study suggests that zonal practice could be an efficient way to bridge the knowledge gap between climate research and urban planning. Urban surfaces classified by LCZ are designated as urban climate landscapes, which extends the LCZ concept to urban planning applications. Selecting Wuhan as a case study, we attempt to explore the climatic effect of landscape patterns. Thermal effects are compared across the urban climate landscapes, and the relationships between patch metrics and land surface temperature (LST are quantified. Results indicate that climate landscape layout is a considerable factor impacting local urban climate. For Wuhan, 500 m is an optimal scale for exploring landscape pattern-temperature relationships. Temperature contrast between surrounding landscape patches has a major influence on LST. Generally, fragmental landscape patches contribute to heat release. For most climate landscape types, patch metrics also have a significant effect on thermal response. When three metrics are included as predictive variables, 53.3% of the heating intensity variation can be explained for the Large Lowrise landscape, while 57.4% of the cooling intensity variation can be explained for the Water landscape. Therefore, this article claims that land-based layout optimization strategy at local scale, which conforms to planning manner, should be taken into account in terms of heat management.

  10. A sensitive slope: estimating landscape patterns of forest resilience in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jill F. Johnstone; Eliot J.B. McIntire; Eric J. Pedersen; Gregory King; Michael J.F. Pisaric

    2010-01-01

    Changes in Earth's environment are expected to stimulate changes in the composition and structure of ecosystems, but it is still unclear how the dynamics of these responses will play out over time. In long-lived forest systems, communities of established individuals may be resistant to respond to directional climate change, but may be highly sensitive to climate...

  11. Reconstruction of spatial patterns of climatic anomalies during the medieval warm period (AD 900-1300)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diaz, H.F. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States). Environmental Research Labs.; Hughes, M.K. [Arizona Univ., Tucson, AZ (United States). Lab. of Tree-Ring Research

    1992-12-31

    The workshop will focus on climatic variations during the Medieval Warm Period or Little Climatic Optimum. The nominal time interval assigned to this period is AD 900--1300, but climate information available during the century or two preceding and following this episode is welcome. The aims of the workshop will be to: examine the available evidence for the existence of this episode; assess the spatial and temporal synchronicity of the climatic signals; discuss possible forcing mechanisms; and identify areas and paleoenvironmental records where additional research efforts are needed to improve our knowledge of this period. This document consists of abstracts of eighteen papers presented at the meeting.

  12. Waiting Time Distributions for Pattern Occurrence in a Constrained Sequence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeri Stefanov

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A binary sequence of zeros and ones is called a (d,k-sequence if it does not contain runs of zeros of length either less than d or greater than k, where d and k are arbitrary, but fixed, non-negative integers and d < k. Such sequences find an abundance of applications in communications, in particular for magnetic and optical recording. Occasionally, one requires that (d,k-sequences do not contain a specific pattern w. Therefore, distribution results concerning pattern occurrence in (d,k-sequences are of interest. In this paper we study the distribution of the waiting time until the r th occurrence of a pattern w in a random (d,k-sequence generated by a Markov source. Numerical examples are also provided.

  13. The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Bader, Jürgen; Greatbatch, Richard J.

    2018-03-01

    Beside its global effects, climate change is manifested in many regionally pronounced features mainly resulting from changes in the oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Here we investigate the influence of the North Atlantic SST on shaping the winter-time response to global warming. Our results are based on a long-term climate projection with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to investigate the influence of North Atlantic sea surface temperature pattern changes on shaping the atmospheric climate change signal. In sensitivity experiments with the model's atmospheric component we decompose the response into components controlled by the local SST structure and components controlled by global/remote changes. MPI-ESM simulates a global warming response in SST similar to other climate models: there is a warming minimum—or "warming hole"—in the subpolar North Atlantic, and the sharp SST gradients associated with the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current shift northward by a few a degrees. Over the warming hole, global warming causes a relatively weak increase in rainfall. Beyond this, our experiments show more localized effects, likely resulting from future SST gradient changes in the North Atlantic. This includes a significant precipitation decrease to the south of the Gulf Stream despite increased underlying SSTs. Since this region is characterised by a strong band of precipitation in the current climate, this is contrary to the usual case that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier in a warmer climate. A moisture budget analysis identifies a complex interplay of various processes in the region of modified SST gradients: reduced surface winds cause a decrease in evaporation; and thermodynamic, modified atmospheric eddy transports, and coastal processes cause a change in the moisture convergence. The changes in the the North Atlantic storm track are mainly controlled by the non-regional changes in the forcing. The impact of

  14. Strong but diverging clonality - climate relationships of different plant clades explain weak overall pattern across China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ye, Duo; Liu, Guofang; Song, Yao-Bin; Cornwell, W.K.; Dong, Ming; Cornelissen, J.H.C.

    2016-01-01

    The clonal strategy should be relatively important in stressful environments (i.e. of low resource availability or harsh climate), e.g. in cold habitats. However, our understanding of the distribution pattern of clonality along environmental gradients is still far from universal. The weakness and

  15. Distribution patterns of tropical woody species in response to climatic and edaphic gradients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toledo, M.; Peña-Claros, M.; Bongers, F.; Alarcón, A.; Balcázar, J.; Chubiña, J.; Leaño, C.; Licona, J.C.; Poorter, L.

    2012-01-01

    1. The analysis of species distribution patterns along environmental gradients is important for understanding the diversity and ecology of plants and species responses to climate change, but detailed data are surprisingly scarce for the tropics. 2. Here, we analyse the distribution of 100 woody

  16. Patterns of sedentary time and cardiometabolic risk among Canadian adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carson, Valerie; Wong, Suzy L; Winkler, Elizabeth; Healy, Genevieve N; Colley, Rachel C; Tremblay, Mark S

    2014-08-01

    The aim of this study is to examine the associations of total sedentary time and patterns of sedentary time with cardiometabolic biomarkers in a large representative sample of Canadian adults. The study is based on 4935 adults aged 20-79years, from the 2007/09 and 2009/11 Canadian Health Measures Survey. Total sedentary time, patterns of sedentary time (≥20minute prolonged sedentary bouts, number of sedentary breaks), and moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA) were accelerometer-derived. Waist circumference, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and C-reactive protein were measured. Triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, insulin, and glucose were also measured in a fasting sub-sample (n=2551). Total sedentary time and time in ≥20minute prolonged sedentary bouts were associated with higher insulin and lower diastolic blood pressure levels (Psedentary time may be particularly important for cardiometabolic health. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Influence of climatic variables, forest type, and condition on activity patterns of Geoffroyi's spider monkeys throughout Mesoamerica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Zamora, Arturo; Arroyo-Rodríguez, Víctor; Chaves, Oscar M; Sánchez-López, Sónia; Aureli, Filippo; Stoner, Kathryn E

    2011-12-01

    Understanding how species cope with variations in climatic conditions, forest types and habitat amount is a fundamental challenge for ecologists and conservation biologists. We used data from 18 communities of Mesoamerican spider monkeys (Ateles geoffroyi) throughout their range to determine whether their activity patterns are affected by climatic variables (temperature and rainfall), forest types (seasonal and nonseasonal forests), and forest condition (continuous and fragmented). Data were derived from 15 published and unpublished studies carried out in four countries (Mexico, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and Panama), cumulatively representing more than 18 years (221 months, >3,645 hr) of behavioral observations. Overall, A. geoffroyi spent most of their time feeding (38.4 ± 14.0%, mean ± SD) and resting (36.6 ± 12.8%) and less time traveling (19.8 ± 11.3%). Resting and feeding were mainly affected by rainfall: resting time increased with decreasing rainfall, whereas feeding time increased with rainfall. Traveling time was negatively related to both rainfall and maximum temperature. In addition, both resting and traveling time were higher in seasonal forests (tropical dry forest and tropical moist forest) than in nonseasonal forests (tropical wet forest), but feeding time followed the opposite pattern. Furthermore, spider monkeys spent more time feeding and less time resting (i.e., higher feeding effort) in forest fragments than in continuous forest. These findings suggest that global climate changes and habitat deforestation and fragmentation in Mesoamerica will threaten the survival of spider monkeys and reduce the distributional range of the species in the coming decades. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J

    2017-05-23

    Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25-48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

  19. Glucocorticoid assessment in the domestic horse: The impacts of time and climatic variables on sample integrity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarnell, K; Walker, S L

    2018-03-01

    Assessment of faecal glucocorticoid metabolites (FGM) offers a noninvasive method of monitoring adrenal activity in domestic horses. Samples are collected on an opportunistic basis and, if they are not fresh or have been exposed to the elements before they are identified, may not accurately reflect FGM concentrations. To explore the impact of a range of environmental conditions upon the integrity of FGM levels in equine faeces. In vitro experiment. Equine faeces were exposed to six controlled environmental conditions intended to simulate a range of weather and seasonal patterns (temperate climate, high heat, high heat and rainfall, temperate climate and rainfall, high heat/temperate climate, freeze/thaw) over a period of 5 days. FGM were quantified using an enzyme-linked immunoassay. Faecal samples exposed to room temperature and high heat demonstrated significant increases in FGM levels over time. No changes in FGM levels were observed in the remaining treatments. The study should be repeated in field conditions and with known high and low levels of FGM to further inform sampling regimes. Adrenal monitoring in the domestic horse should be performed with consideration of the impact of climate on the integrity of faecal samples in order to further inform sampling schedules and improve the reliability of results. © 2017 EVJ Ltd.

  20. Time-series analysis of foreign exchange rates using time-dependent pattern entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishizaki, Ryuji; Inoue, Masayoshi

    2013-08-01

    Time-dependent pattern entropy is a method that reduces variations to binary symbolic dynamics and considers the pattern of symbols in a sliding temporal window. We use this method to analyze the instability of daily variations in foreign exchange rates, in particular, the dollar-yen rate. The time-dependent pattern entropy of the dollar-yen rate was found to be high in the following periods: before and after the turning points of the yen from strong to weak or from weak to strong, and the period after the Lehman shock.

  1. Large-memory real-time multichannel multiplexed pattern recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, D. A.; Liu, H. K.

    1984-01-01

    The principle and experimental design of a real-time multichannel multiplexed optical pattern recognition system via use of a 25-focus dichromated gelatin holographic lens (hololens) are described. Each of the 25 foci of the hololens may have a storage and matched filtering capability approaching that of a single-lens correlator. If the space-bandwidth product of an input image is limited, as is true in most practical cases, the 25-focus hololens system has 25 times the capability of a single lens. Experimental results have shown that the interfilter noise is not serious. The system has already demonstrated the storage and recognition of over 70 matched filters - which is a larger capacity than any optical pattern recognition system reported to date.

  2. Time-dependent scaling patterns in high frequency financial data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nava, Noemi; Di Matteo, Tiziana; Aste, Tomaso

    2016-10-01

    We measure the influence of different time-scales on the intraday dynamics of financial markets. This is obtained by decomposing financial time series into simple oscillations associated with distinct time-scales. We propose two new time-varying measures of complexity: 1) an amplitude scaling exponent and 2) an entropy-like measure. We apply these measures to intraday, 30-second sampled prices of various stock market indices. Our results reveal intraday trends where different time-horizons contribute with variable relative amplitudes over the course of the trading day. Our findings indicate that the time series we analysed have a non-stationary multifractal nature with predominantly persistent behaviour at the middle of the trading session and anti-persistent behaviour at the opening and at the closing of the session. We demonstrate that these patterns are statistically significant, robust, reproducible and characteristic of each stock market. We argue that any modelling, analytics or trading strategy must take into account these non-stationary intraday scaling patterns.

  3. Memory for Random Time Patterns in Audition, Touch, and Vision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, HiJee; Lancelin, Denis; Pressnitzer, Daniel

    2018-03-22

    Perception deals with temporal sequences of events, like series of phonemes for audition, dynamic changes in pressure for touch textures, or moving objects for vision. Memory processes are thus needed to make sense of the temporal patterning of sensory information. Recently, we have shown that auditory temporal patterns could be learned rapidly and incidentally with repeated exposure [Kang et al., 2017]. Here, we tested whether rapid incidental learning of temporal patterns was specific to audition, or if it was a more general property of sensory systems. We used a same behavioral task in three modalities: audition, touch, and vision, for stimuli having identical temporal statistics. Participants were presented with sequences of acoustic pulses for audition, motion pulses to the fingertips for touch, or light pulses for vision. Pulses were randomly and irregularly spaced, with all inter-pulse intervals in the sub-second range and all constrained to be longer than the temporal acuity in any modality. This led to pulse sequences with an average inter-pulse interval of 166 ms, a minimum inter-pulse interval of 60 ms, and a total duration of 1.2 s. Results showed that, if a random temporal pattern re-occurred at random times during an experimental block, it was rapidly learned, whatever the sensory modality. Moreover, patterns first learned in the auditory modality displayed transfer of learning to either touch or vision. This suggests that sensory systems may be exquisitely tuned to incidentally learn re-occurring temporal patterns, with possible cross-talk between the senses. Copyright © 2018 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Time-series analysis of multiple foreign exchange rates using time-dependent pattern entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishizaki, Ryuji; Inoue, Masayoshi

    2018-01-01

    Time-dependent pattern entropy is a method that reduces variations to binary symbolic dynamics and considers the pattern of symbols in a sliding temporal window. We use this method to analyze the instability of daily variations in multiple foreign exchange rates. The time-dependent pattern entropy of 7 foreign exchange rates (AUD/USD, CAD/USD, CHF/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, JPY/USD, and NZD/USD) was found to be high in the long period after the Lehman shock, and be low in the long period after Mar 2012. We compared the correlation matrix between exchange rates in periods of high and low of the time-dependent pattern entropy.

  5. Potential for passive cooling of buildings by night-time ventilation in present and future climates in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Artmann, Nikolai; Manz, Heinrich; Heiselberg, Per

    2006-01-01

    -time ventilative cooling over the whole of Northern Europe and a still significant potential in Central, Eastern and even some regions of Southern Europe. However, given the inherent stochastic properties of weather patterns, series of warmer nights can occur at some locations, where passive cooling by night......-time ventilation alone might not suffice to guarantee thermal comfort. It should also be remembered that climatic cooling potential is likely to have fallen appreciably by the end of the 21st century due to climate warming....

  6. Time scale interaction in low-order climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veen, Lennaert van

    2002-01-01

    Over the last decades, the study of climate variability has attracted ample attention. The observation of structural climatic change has led to questions about the causes and the mechanisms involved. The task to understand interactions in the complex climate system is particularly di±cult because of

  7. Physical Activity Behavior Patterns during School Leisure Time in Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chad Smith

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Optimizing physical activity (PA in children is paramount to attenuate the incidence of chronic disease and to improve social and cognitive health. Limited research exists examining the observed PA patterns during school leisure times in children from the U.S. The purpose of this study was to examine the observed PA patterns of children during three school leisure times: before school, during lunch, and after school. The SOPLAY instrument was used to observe PA during the three leisure times across six weeks at four elementary schools in the U.S. Observer PA counts were stratified by sex, PA intensity (sedentary, walking, and very active, and leisure time. Multi-level models were employed to examine the effect of leisure time and PA intensity on observer PA counts, adjusting for day and school-level clustering. Lunch displayed the greatest number of counts for sedentary, walking, and very active PA intensities (p 0.05. After school displayed the fewest counts for walking and very active PA in both sexes (p < 0.05. An emphasis should be placed on increasing walking and very active PA intensities before school and during lunch in girls and after school in both sexes. Keywords: after school, before school, lunch, SOPLAY, systematic observation

  8. Continental-scale patterns and climatic drivers of fruiting phenology: A quantitative Neotropical review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, Irene; Peres, Carlos A.; Morellato, Leonor Patrícia C.

    2017-01-01

    environmental cues such as water level (6%), solar radiation or photoperiod (3.2%), and ENSO events (1.4%) were rarely addressed. In addition, drivers were analyzed statistically in only 38% of datasets and techniques were basically correlative, with only 4.8% of studies including any consideration of the inherently autocorrelated character of phenological time series. Fruiting peaks were significantly more often reported during the rainy season both in rainforests and cerrado woodlands, which is at odds with the relatively aseasonal character of the former vegetation type. Given that climatic models predict harsh future conditions for the tropics, we urgently need to determine the magnitude of changes in plant reproductive phenology and distinguish those from cyclical oscillations. Long-term monitoring and herbarium data are therefore key for detecting these trends. Our review shows that the unevenness in geographic distribution of studies, and diversity of sampling methods, vegetation types, and research motivation hinder the emergence of clear general phenological patterns and drivers for the Neotropics. We therefore call for prioritizing research in unexplored areas, and improving the quantitative component and statistical design of reproductive phenology studies to enhance our predictions of climate change impacts on tropical plants and animals.

  9. Food webs patterns in species-poor insular lakes resemble climate-related patterns in continental lakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidal, Nicolas; Amsinck, Susanne Lildal; Goncalves, Vitor

    2015-01-01

    Space-for-time substitution studies (SFTS, e.g. latitudinal gradient analyses) are often used to unravel climate effects on lake biota, and have shown a reduction in size, changes in diet and more frequent reproduction of fish in warmer climates, with cascading effects such as lower zooplankton...... and higher phytoplankton biomasses. SFTS results from continental lakes are, however, potentially confounded by biogeographical and evolutionary differences leading to often higher species richness in warm lakes. To somehow reduce these confounding effects, we studied species-poor lakes located in two remote...... island groups with contrasting climates but similar seasonality: The Faroe Islands (cold; 6.5±2.8°C) and the Azores (warm; 17.3±2.9°C). We analysed community and food web structure using a stable isotopes approach investigating fish, macro-invertebrates, and zooplankton in 20 lakes. We found a smaller...

  10. Patterns of drought tolerance in major European temperate forest trees: climatic drivers and levels of variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zang, Christian; Hartl-Meier, Claudia; Dittmar, Christoph; Rothe, Andreas; Menzel, Annette

    2014-12-01

    The future performance of native tree species under climate change conditions is frequently discussed, since increasingly severe and more frequent drought events are expected to become a major risk for forest ecosystems. To improve our understanding of the drought tolerance of the three common European temperate forest tree species Norway spruce, silver fir and common beech, we tested the influence of climate and tree-specific traits on the inter and intrasite variability in drought responses of these species. Basal area increment data from a large tree-ring network in Southern Germany and Alpine Austria along a climatic cline from warm-dry to cool-wet conditions were used to calculate indices of tolerance to drought events and their variability at the level of individual trees and populations. General patterns of tolerance indicated a high vulnerability of Norway spruce in comparison to fir and beech and a strong influence of bioclimatic conditions on drought response for all species. On the level of individual trees, low-growth rates prior to drought events, high competitive status and low age favored resilience in growth response to drought. Consequently, drought events led to heterogeneous and variable response patterns in forests stands. These findings may support the idea of deliberately using spontaneous selection and adaption effects as a passive strategy of forest management under climate change conditions, especially a strong directional selection for more tolerant individuals when frequency and intensity of summer droughts will increase in the course of global climate change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Patterns of tree species diversity in relation to climatic factors on the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva-Flores, Ramón; Pérez-Verdín, Gustavo; Wehenkel, Christian

    2014-01-01

    Biological diversity can be defined as variability among living organisms from all sources, including terrestrial organisms, marine and other aquatic ecosystems, and the ecological complexes which they are part of. This includes diversity within species, between species, and of ecosystems. Numerous diversity indices combine richness and evenness in a single expression, and several climate-based explanations have been proposed to explain broad-scale diversity patterns. However, climate-based water-energy dynamics appears to be an essential factor that determines patterns of diversity. The Mexican Sierra Madre Occidental occupies an area of about 29 million hectares and is located between the Neotropical and Holarctic ecozones. It shelters a high diversity of flora, including 24 different species of Pinus (ca. 22% on the whole), 54 species of Quercus (ca. 9-14%), 7 species of Arbutus (ca. 50%) and many other trees species. The objectives of this study were to model how tree species diversity is related to climatic and geographic factors and stand density and to test the Metabolic Theory, Productivity-Diversity Hypothesis, Physiological Tolerance Hypothesis, Mid-Domain Effect, and the Water-Energy Dynamic Theory on the Sierra Madre Occidental, Durango. The results supported the Productivity-Diversity Hypothesis, Physiological Tolerance Hypothesis and Water-Energy Dynamic Theory, but not the Mid-Domain Effect or Metabolic Theory. The annual aridity index was the variable most closely related to the diversity indices analyzed. Contemporary climate was found to have moderate to strong effects on the minimum, median and maximum tree species diversity. Because water-energy dynamics provided a satisfactory explanation for the patterns of minimum, median and maximum diversity, an understanding of this factor is critical to future biodiversity research. Quantile regression of the data showed that the three diversity parameters of tree species are generally higher in cold

  12. Climate Teleconnections and Recent Patterns of Human and Animal Disease Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anyamba, Assaf; Linthicum, Kenneth J.; Small, Jennifer L.; Collins, Katherine M.; Tucker, Compton J.; Pak, Edwin W.; Britch, Seth C.; Eastman, James Ronald; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Russell, Kevin L.

    2011-01-01

    Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya) in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Extremes in rainfall (drought and flood) during the period 2004 - 2009 have privileged different disease vectors. Chikungunya outbreaks occurred during the severe drought from late 2004 to 2006 over coastal East Africa and the western Indian Ocean islands and in the later years India and Southeast Asia. The chikungunya pandemic was caused by a Central/East African genotype that appears to have been precipitated and then enhanced by global-scale and regional climate conditions in these regions. Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occurred following excessive rainfall period from late 2006 to late 2007 in East Africa and Sudan, and then in 2008 - 2009 in Southern Africa. The shift in the outbreak patterns of Rift Valley fever from East Africa to Southern Africa followed a transition of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena from the warm El Nino phase (2006-2007) to the cold La Nina phase (2007-2009) and associated patterns of variability in the greater Indian Ocean basin that result in the displacement of the centres of above normal rainfall from Eastern to Southern Africa. Understanding the background patterns of climate variability both at global and regional scale and their impacts on ecological drivers of vector borne-diseases is critical in long-range planning of appropriate response and mitigation measures.

  13. Harvest time of Cryptomeria japonica seeds depending on climate factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, Seog-Gu; Kim, Hyo-Jeong; Kim, Chang-Soo; Byun, Kwang-Ok

    2010-05-01

    Sound seeds should have good germination rates and seed germination can be influenced by several factors. Seed picking time is regarded as one of the necessary elements to obtain sound seeds. From a clonal seed orchard of Cryptomeria japonica located in southern part of Korean peninsular, cones were picked about every 10 days from 30th of July 2005 to 30th of October in both 2005 and 2006. We have also analyzed the effects of climatic factors about two consecutive years on seed productivity. From the picked cones, seeds were collected and these germination ability, seed size and embryo shapes were investigated according to cone picking time. The 1,000-seed weight picked on 18th of August was 3.3 g and 5.3 g on 30th of September 2005and 2006. The size of seeds picked from 18th of August to 30th of September increased from 19.3 mm to 21.3 mm in length and from 15.8 mm to 18.5 mm in width. Depending on picking time, various shapes of embryos, including embryos with liquid material, jellied material and fully matured ones were observed. Germination aspects also varied throughout the test days. About two weeks after seeding in a glass petri-dish, germinal apparatuses appeared from each test seed sets which had been picked from after 10 August 2005 and 10 August 2006. The germination rates started from 10.7% from seeds picked 20 August 2006. Average germination rate in 2005 was 18.3 and 19.6 in 2006. In 2005, the highest germination rate was 34.3% from seeds picked on the 30th of September. In 2006, the highest germination rate was 31.7% for seeds picked at the same date as the 2005 seeds. After September, the highest germination rate for picked seeds decreased in both 2005 and 2006. Among the climatic factors, monthly sum of temperature and of precipitation were the main factors for maturation of C. japonica seeds. The results implied that the best cone picking time for the Korean C. japonica seed orchard to be around the end of September.

  14. A decadal trend of juvenile European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax, L. responses to climate patterns in the Mondego estuary, Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Granja Bento

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Estuarine systems support the life cycle stages of commercially important marine fish and are influenced by large and local-scale climatic patterns. Also, extreme events triggered by climate changes may influence the functioning of nursery grounds and recruitment for several fish species. In this study, performed in the Mondego estuary, Portugal, we used an 11-year database (2003-2013 for analyzing the variability in the population of a marine juvenile migrant fish, the European sea bass Dicentrarchus labrax, regarding changes in abundance, population structure, growth rates and secondary production and annual day of peak abundance. Higher densities and production occurred at the beginning of the study, but no differences in 0-group growth could be observed. In order to detect change points in both biological and climatic data, the cumulative sum (CUSUM of the deviations from the mean for the 2003-2013 period were determined for each parameter. The relationship between large- and local-scale drivers and 0-group abundance, secondary production and day of peak abundance were evaluated using a Pearson correlation analysis of CUSUM of biological and environmental data, considering the correspondent yearly values and with a time-lag of 1 year. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index, sea surface temperature (SST and their respective winter values were tested as large-scale factors, while river runoff, salinity and water temperature were considered as local climate patterns. River runoff was the significant factor explaining D. labrax 0-group abundances and the NAO and water temperature were also significant predictors considering the 1-year lag. Regarding D. labrax 0-group secondary production, salinity and water temperature were the significant predictors. The NAO with 1-year lag was also negatively correlated with the day of peak abundance. The observed variability regarding yearly trends in abundance of juvenile fish was mostly linked to local

  15. Sludge accumulation pattern in an anaerobic pond under Mediterranean climatic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadopoulos, A; Parisopoulos, G; Papadopoulos, F; Karteris, A

    2003-02-01

    The main objective of this study was to observe the sludge accumulation pattern of an experimental, covered, anaerobic pond treating municipal wastewater under Mediterranean climatic conditions throughout a 2-year operational period (1999-2000) in order to form a seasonal sludge accumulation model which may be used to predict the required desludging time, not only of the particular anaerobic pond used in the study, but also for other types of anaerobic ponds and operational situations. The 4-m deep pond was supplied with pre-screened, untreated wastewater from the nearby treatment plant of Thessaloniki, Greece, initially at a flow rate of 120m3/day and later at a flow rate of 150m3/day. The influent characteristics were BOD5 441 mg O2/L, COD 942 mg O2/L and suspended solids (SS) 574 mg/L. BOD5, COD, and SS concentrations of the pond effluent were reduced by 50%, 53%, and 64%, respectively, in comparison with those of the influent. During the operational period, three distinctly different zones were seen to form within the anaerobic pond: The first zone, which formed at the bottom of the pond, consisted of inert, high-density sludge. The second zone, which formed above this, contained a high concentration of volatile (easily biodegradable) sludge. The third upper zone (supernatant), was a liquid layer low in suspended solids. The accumulation of sludge in the pond followed an annual sinusoidal pattern with high values during winter and low ones during summer due to the increased digestion rate. The maximum high-density sludge height observed was 0.7m, or 2% (14 m3) of the total pond volume. The maximum volatile sludge accumulation reached 3.1 m, or 53% (300 m3) of the pond volume. A seasonal sludge accumulation model, based on the sludge inflow and seasonal digestion rates, was used to simulate the annual fluctuation in accumulation rate for the local (Mediterranean type) climatic conditions. Monthly values of accumulation (or digestion) rate of sludge (K(AS)) were

  16. Interactions of landscape disturbances and climate change dictate ecological pattern and process: spatial modeling of wildfire, insect, and disease dynamics under future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachel A. Loehman; Robert E. Keane; Lisa M. Holsinger; Zhiwei Wu

    2017-01-01

    Context: Interactions among disturbances, climate, and vegetation influence landscape patterns and ecosystem processes. Climate changes, exotic invasions, beetle outbreaks, altered fire regimes, and human activities may interact to produce landscapes that appear and function beyond historical analogs. Objectives We used the mechanistic...

  17. Climatic change and wildland recreation: Examining the changing patterns of wilderness recreation in response to the effects of global climate change and the El Nino phenomenon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinod Sasidharan

    2000-01-01

    Impacts of global climate change on the biophysical components of wilderness areas have the potential to alter their recreational utility of wilderness areas. Concomitantly, the frequency and patterns of both land-based and water-based wilderness recreation activities will be affected. Despite the difficulty of responding to the unclear dimensions of global climate...

  18. Long-term pattern and magnitude of soil carbon feedback to the climate system in a warming world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melillo, J M; Frey, S D; DeAngelis, K M; Werner, W J; Bernard, M J; Bowles, F P; Pold, G; Knorr, M A; Grandy, A S

    2017-10-06

    In a 26-year soil warming experiment in a mid-latitude hardwood forest, we documented changes in soil carbon cycling to investigate the potential consequences for the climate system. We found that soil warming results in a four-phase pattern of soil organic matter decay and carbon dioxide fluxes to the atmosphere, with phases of substantial soil carbon loss alternating with phases of no detectable loss. Several factors combine to affect the timing, magnitude, and thermal acclimation of soil carbon loss. These include depletion of microbially accessible carbon pools, reductions in microbial biomass, a shift in microbial carbon use efficiency, and changes in microbial community composition. Our results support projections of a long-term, self-reinforcing carbon feedback from mid-latitude forests to the climate system as the world warms. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

  19. Patterns of distribution, abundance, and change over time in a subarctic marine bird community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cushing, Daniel A.; Roby, Daniel D.; Irons, David B.

    2018-01-01

    Over recent decades, marine ecosystems of Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, have experienced concurrent effects of natural and anthropogenic perturbations, including variability in the climate system of the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We documented spatial and temporal patterns of variability in the summer marine bird community in relation to habitat and climate variability using boat-based surveys of marine birds conducted during the period 1989-2012. We hypothesized that a major factor structuring marine bird communities in PWS would be proximity to the shoreline, which is theorized to relate to aspects of food web structure. We also hypothesized that shifts in physical ecosystem drivers differentially affected nearshore-benthic and pelagic components of PWS food webs. We evaluated support for our hypotheses using an approach centered on community-level patterns of spatial and temporal variability. We found that an environmental gradient related to water depth and distance from shore was the dominant factor spatially structuring the marine bird community. Responses of marine birds to this onshore-offshore environmental gradient were related to dietary specialization, and separated marine bird taxa by prey type. The primary form of temporal variability over the study period was monotonic increases or decreases in abundance for 11 of 18 evaluated genera of marine birds; 8 genera had declined, whereas 3 had increased. The greatest declines occurred in genera associated with habitats that were deeper and farther from shore. Furthermore, most of the genera that declined primarily fed on pelagic prey resources, such as forage fish and mesozooplankton, and few were directly affected by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill. Our observations of synchronous declines are indicative of a shift in pelagic components of PWS food webs. This pattern was correlated with climate variability at time-scales of several years to a decade.

  20. Patterns of distribution, abundance, and change over time in a subarctic marine bird community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cushing, Daniel; Roby, Daniel D.; Irons, David B.

    2017-01-01

    Over recent decades, marine ecosystems of Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, have experienced concurrent effects of natural and anthropogenic perturbations, including variability in the climate system of the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We documented spatial and temporal patterns of variability in the summer marine bird community in relation to habitat and climate variability using boat-based surveys of marine birds conducted during the period 1989–2012. We hypothesized that a major factor structuring marine bird communities in PWS would be proximity to the shoreline, which is theorized to relate to aspects of food web structure. We also hypothesized that shifts in physical ecosystem drivers differentially affected nearshore-benthic and pelagic components of PWS food webs. We evaluated support for our hypotheses using an approach centered on community-level patterns of spatial and temporal variability. We found that an environmental gradient related to water depth and distance from shore was the dominant factor spatially structuring the marine bird community. Responses of marine birds to this onshore-offshore environmental gradient were related to dietary specialization, and separated marine bird taxa by prey type. The primary form of temporal variability over the study period was monotonic increases or decreases in abundance for 11 of 18 evaluated genera of marine birds; 8 genera had declined, whereas 3 had increased. The greatest declines occurred in genera associated with habitats that were deeper and farther from shore. Furthermore, most of the genera that declined primarily fed on pelagic prey resources, such as forage fish and mesozooplankton, and few were directly affected by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill. Our observations of synchronous declines are indicative of a shift in pelagic components of PWS food webs. This pattern was correlated with climate variability at time-scales of several years to a decade.

  1. Time-warp invariant pattern detection with bursting neurons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gollisch, Tim

    2008-01-01

    Sound patterns are defined by the temporal relations of their constituents, individual acoustic cues. Auditory systems need to extract these temporal relations to detect or classify sounds. In various cases, ranging from human speech to communication signals of grasshoppers, this pattern detection has been found to display invariance to temporal stretching or compression of the sound signal ('linear time-warp invariance'). In this work, a four-neuron network model is introduced, designed to solve such a detection task for the example of grasshopper courtship songs. As an essential ingredient, the network contains neurons with intrinsic bursting dynamics, which allow them to encode durations between acoustic events in short, rapid sequences of spikes. As shown by analytical calculations and computer simulations, these neuronal dynamics result in a powerful mechanism for temporal integration. Finally, the network reads out the encoded temporal information by detecting equal activity of two such bursting neurons. This leads to the recognition of rhythmic patterns independent of temporal stretching or compression

  2. Sequentially firing neurons confer flexible timing in neural pattern generators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urban, Alexander; Ermentrout, Bard

    2011-01-01

    Neuronal networks exhibit a variety of complex spatiotemporal patterns that include sequential activity, synchrony, and wavelike dynamics. Inhibition is the primary means through which such patterns are implemented. This behavior is dependent on both the intrinsic dynamics of the individual neurons as well as the connectivity patterns. Many neural circuits consist of networks of smaller subcircuits (motifs) that are coupled together to form the larger system. In this paper, we consider a particularly simple motif, comprising purely inhibitory interactions, which generates sequential periodic dynamics. We first describe the dynamics of the single motif both for general balanced coupling (all cells receive the same number and strength of inputs) and then for a specific class of balanced networks: circulant systems. We couple these motifs together to form larger networks. We use the theory of weak coupling to derive phase models which, themselves, have a certain structure and symmetry. We show that this structure endows the coupled system with the ability to produce arbitrary timing relationships between symmetrically coupled motifs and that the phase relationships are robust over a wide range of frequencies. The theory is applicable to many other systems in biology and physics.

  3. A polynomial time biclustering algorithm for finding approximate expression patterns in gene expression time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madeira Sara C

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The ability to monitor the change in expression patterns over time, and to observe the emergence of coherent temporal responses using gene expression time series, obtained from microarray experiments, is critical to advance our understanding of complex biological processes. In this context, biclustering algorithms have been recognized as an important tool for the discovery of local expression patterns, which are crucial to unravel potential regulatory mechanisms. Although most formulations of the biclustering problem are NP-hard, when working with time series expression data the interesting biclusters can be restricted to those with contiguous columns. This restriction leads to a tractable problem and enables the design of efficient biclustering algorithms able to identify all maximal contiguous column coherent biclusters. Methods In this work, we propose e-CCC-Biclustering, a biclustering algorithm that finds and reports all maximal contiguous column coherent biclusters with approximate expression patterns in time polynomial in the size of the time series gene expression matrix. This polynomial time complexity is achieved by manipulating a discretized version of the original matrix using efficient string processing techniques. We also propose extensions to deal with missing values, discover anticorrelated and scaled expression patterns, and different ways to compute the errors allowed in the expression patterns. We propose a scoring criterion combining the statistical significance of expression patterns with a similarity measure between overlapping biclusters. Results We present results in real data showing the effectiveness of e-CCC-Biclustering and its relevance in the discovery of regulatory modules describing the transcriptomic expression patterns occurring in Saccharomyces cerevisiae in response to heat stress. In particular, the results show the advantage of considering approximate patterns when compared to state of

  4. Transmission of linear regression patterns between time series: from relationship in time series to complex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Xiangyun; An, Haizhong; Fang, Wei; Huang, Xuan; Li, Huajiao; Zhong, Weiqiong; Ding, Yinghui

    2014-07-01

    The linear regression parameters between two time series can be different under different lengths of observation period. If we study the whole period by the sliding window of a short period, the change of the linear regression parameters is a process of dynamic transmission over time. We tackle fundamental research that presents a simple and efficient computational scheme: a linear regression patterns transmission algorithm, which transforms linear regression patterns into directed and weighted networks. The linear regression patterns (nodes) are defined by the combination of intervals of the linear regression parameters and the results of the significance testing under different sizes of the sliding window. The transmissions between adjacent patterns are defined as edges, and the weights of the edges are the frequency of the transmissions. The major patterns, the distance, and the medium in the process of the transmission can be captured. The statistical results of weighted out-degree and betweenness centrality are mapped on timelines, which shows the features of the distribution of the results. Many measurements in different areas that involve two related time series variables could take advantage of this algorithm to characterize the dynamic relationships between the time series from a new perspective.

  5. Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaffer, Gary; Huber, Matthew; Rondanelli, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Future global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will depend on climate feedbacks, the effect of which is expressed by climate sensitivity, the warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 content. It is not clear how feedbacks, sensitivity, and temperature will evolve in our warming...... world, but past warming events may provide insight. Here we employ paleoreconstructions and new climate-carbon model simulations in a novel framework to explore a wide scenario range for the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) carbon release and global warming event 55.8Ma ago, a possible future...... indicates climate sensitivity increase with global warming....

  6. Formulating and testing a method for perturbing precipitation time series to reflect anticipated climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Georgiadis, Stylianos; Gregersen, Ida Bülow

    2017-01-01

    Urban water infrastructure has very long planning horizons, and planning is thus very dependent on reliable estimates of the impacts of climate change. Many urban water systems are designed using time series with a high temporal resolution. To assess the impact of climate change on these systems......, similarly high-resolution precipitation time series for future climate are necessary. Climate models cannot at their current resolutions provide these time series at the relevant scales. Known methods for stochastic downscaling of climate change to urban hydrological scales have known shortcomings...... in constructing realistic climate-changed precipitation time series at the sub-hourly scale. In the present study we present a deterministic methodology to perturb historical precipitation time series at the minute scale to reflect non-linear expectations to climate change. The methodology shows good skill...

  7. Classification of time series patterns from complex dynamic systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schryver, J.C.; Rao, N.

    1998-07-01

    An increasing availability of high-performance computing and data storage media at decreasing cost is making possible the proliferation of large-scale numerical databases and data warehouses. Numeric warehousing enterprises on the order of hundreds of gigabytes to terabytes are a reality in many fields such as finance, retail sales, process systems monitoring, biomedical monitoring, surveillance and transportation. Large-scale databases are becoming more accessible to larger user communities through the internet, web-based applications and database connectivity. Consequently, most researchers now have access to a variety of massive datasets. This trend will probably only continue to grow over the next several years. Unfortunately, the availability of integrated tools to explore, analyze and understand the data warehoused in these archives is lagging far behind the ability to gain access to the same data. In particular, locating and identifying patterns of interest in numerical time series data is an increasingly important problem for which there are few available techniques. Temporal pattern recognition poses many interesting problems in classification, segmentation, prediction, diagnosis and anomaly detection. This research focuses on the problem of classification or characterization of numerical time series data. Highway vehicles and their drivers are examples of complex dynamic systems (CDS) which are being used by transportation agencies for field testing to generate large-scale time series datasets. Tools for effective analysis of numerical time series in databases generated by highway vehicle systems are not yet available, or have not been adapted to the target problem domain. However, analysis tools from similar domains may be adapted to the problem of classification of numerical time series data.

  8. Collembolan trait patterns with climate modifications along a European gradient: the VULCAN case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonfanti, Jonathan; Cortet, Jérôme; Hedde, Mickaël

    In a climate change context, soil ecosystem services can be threatened, notably through impacts on soil fauna. Collembola can be therefore used for bioindication of soil mesofauna functionality. Here we aim (i) to link distribution of the collembolan communities with their functional traits...... adaptations to climate conditions at a large scale, (ii) to evaluate how trait patterns are impacted by an experimental climatic treatment. The VULCAN project was carried out from 2001-2004 at 6 European shrublands sites located in Wales, Denmark, Netherlands, Hungary, Spain and Sardinia. Each site received...... warming and drought treatments in addition to an ambient control. Collembola were sampled from plants, soil surface, and soil, and the communities were characterised and compared in terms of taxonomic diversity and trait composition. Most up-to-date trait database version of the BETSI project (France...

  9. Species distributions and climate change:current patterns and future scenarios for biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hof, Christian

    How does climate change affect biodiversity? - Answering this question is one of the most important tasks in current ecological research. Earth has been warming by 0.7°C during the last 100 years, and the consequences are already apparent in biotic systems. For example, species are responding...... by shifts of their distributional ranges, which affects the spatial patterns of species richness and turnover. Global temperatures are projected to rise by 1.8 - 4°C until the end of the century; hence climate change will most likely leave further imprints on species and ecosystems. This PhD thesis aims...... extinction, one might assume that most species may also be able to successfully cope with contemporary climate change. However, current ecosystems are heavily modified by humans. Among other factors, habitat destruction and fragmentation caused by anthropogenic land-use changes negatively affect species...

  10. Assessing the relationship between surface urban heat islands and landscape patterns across climatic zones in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Qiquan; Huang, Xin; Li, Jiayi

    2017-08-24

    The urban heat island (UHI) effect exerts a great influence on the Earth's environment and human health and has been the subject of considerable attention. Landscape patterns are among the most important factors relevant to surface UHIs (SUHIs); however, the relationship between SUHIs and landscape patterns is poorly understood over large areas. In this study, the surface UHI intensity (SUHII) is defined as the temperature difference between urban and suburban areas, and the landscape patterns are quantified by the urban-suburban differences in several typical landscape metrics (ΔLMs). Temperature and land-cover classification datasets based on satellite observations were applied to analyze the relationship between SUHII and ΔLMs in 332 cities/city agglomerations distributed in different climatic zones of China. The results indicate that SUHII and its correlations with ΔLMs are profoundly influenced by seasonal, diurnal, and climatic factors. The impacts of different land-cover types on SUHIs are different, and the landscape patterns of the built-up and vegetation (including forest, grassland, and cultivated land) classes have the most significant effects on SUHIs. The results of this study will help us to gain a deeper understanding of the relationship between the SUHI effect and landscape patterns.

  11. Strong but diverging clonality - climate relationships of different plant clades explain weak overall pattern across China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Duo; Liu, Guofang; Song, Yao-Bin; Cornwell, William K.; Dong, Ming; Cornelissen, Johannes H. C.

    2016-06-01

    The clonal strategy should be relatively important in stressful environments (i.e. of low resource availability or harsh climate), e.g. in cold habitats. However, our understanding of the distribution pattern of clonality along environmental gradients is still far from universal. The weakness and inconsistency of overall clonality-climate relationships across taxa, as reported in previous studies, may be due to different phylogenetic lineages having fundamental differences in functional traits other than clonality determining their climate response. Thus, in this study we compared the clonality-climate relationships along a latitudinal gradient within and between different lineages at several taxonomic levels, including four major angiosperm lineages (Magnoliidae, Monocotyledoneae, Superrosidae and Superasteridae), orders and families. To this aim we used a species clonality dataset for 4015 vascular plant species in 545 terrestrial communities across China. Our results revealed clear predictive patterns of clonality proportion in relation to environmental gradients for the predominant representatives of each of the taxonomic levels above, but the relationships differed in shape and strength between the 4 major angiosperm lineages, between the 12 orders and between the 12 families. These different relationships canceled out one another when all lineages at a certain taxonomic level were pooled. Our findings highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for the functional or taxonomic scale for studying variation in plant ecological strategy across environmental gradients.

  12. [Physical activity, screen time and sleep patterns in Chilean girls].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, M M; Vergara, F A; Velásquez, E J A; García-Hermoso, A

    2015-11-01

    Physical activity (PA), screen time (ST), and sleep are modifiable lifestyle habits for health. The objectives of this study were: a) to examine the association between PA, ST, and both, on sleep patterns; and b) to determine the influence of PA and ST on sleep problems in Chilean girls. The study involved 196 children (12.2 years). Patterns and sleep problems were assessed using the Spanish version of the Sleep Self-Report, and the PA through the Physical Activity Questionnaire for Adolescents (PAQ-A), both in Castilian. The ST was assessed using several questions about television, game console and computer use. The ST recommendation (2h a day) was exceeded by 63.2% of the girls. In general, the most active girls (last quartile) that did not exceed the recommendations of ST reported higher sleep quality and total score values compared to those who did not meet both. The logistic regression analysis showed that girls who did not meet both habits were more likely to have sleep quality (odds ratio=17.8, P=.018), and general sleep problems (odds ratio=7.85, P=.025). Parents need to set limits on sedentary leisure time and encourage more active habits, as sleep is a parameter closely linked to a better health profile in youth. Copyright © 2014 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  13. It's about time: a comparison of Canadian and American time-activity patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leech, Judith A; Nelson, William C; Burnett, Richard T; Aaron, Shawn; Raizenne, Mark E

    2002-11-01

    This study compares two North American time-activity data bases: the National Human Activity Pattern Survey (NHAPS) of 9386 interviewees in 1992-1994 in the continental USA with the Canadian Human Activity Pattern Survey (CHAPS) of 2381 interviewees in 1996-1997 in four major Canadian cities. Identical surveys and methodology were used to collect this data: random sample telephone selection within the identified telephone exchanges, computer-assisted telephone interviews, overselection of children and weekends in the 24-h recall diary and the same interviewers. Very similar response rates were obtained: 63% (NHAPS) and 64.5% (CHAPS). Results of comparisons by age within major activity and location groups suggest activity and location patterns are very similar (most differences being less than 1% or 14 min in a 24-h day) with the exception of seasonal differences. Canadians spend less time outdoors in winter and less time indoors in summer than their U.S. counterparts. When exposure assessments use time of year or outdoor/indoor exposure gradients, these differences may result in significant differences in exposure assessments. Otherwise, the 24-h time activity patterns of North Americans are remarkably similar and use of the combined data set for some exposure assessments may be feasible.

  14. Education and Climate Change: Living and Learning in Interesting Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagawa, Fumiyo, Ed.; Selby, David, Ed.

    2009-01-01

    There is widespread consensus in the international scientific community that climate change is happening and that abrupt and irreversible impacts are already set in motion. What part does education have to play in helping alleviate rampant climate change and in mitigating its worst effects? In this volume, contributors review and reflect upon…

  15. Recent Shift in Climate Relationship Enables Prediction of the Timing of Bird Breeding.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelley A Hinsley

    Full Text Available Large-scale climate processes influence many aspects of ecology including breeding phenology, reproductive success and survival across a wide range of taxa. Some effects are direct, for example, in temperate-zone birds, ambient temperature is an important cue enabling breeding effort to coincide with maximum food availability, and earlier breeding in response to warmer springs has been documented in many species. In other cases, time-lags of up to several years in ecological responses have been reported, with effects mediated through biotic mechanisms such as growth rates or abundance of food supplies. Here we use 23 years of data for a temperate woodland bird species, the great tit (Parus major, breeding in deciduous woodland in eastern England to demonstrate a time-lagged linear relationship between the on-set of egg laying and the winter index of the North Atlantic Oscillation such that timing can be predicted from the winter index for the previous year. Thus the timing of bird breeding (and, by inference, the timing of spring events in general can be predicted one year in advance. We also show that the relationship with the winter index appears to arise through an abiotic time-lag with local spring warmth in our study area. Examining this link between local conditions and larger-scale processes in the longer-term showed that, in the past, significant relationships with the immediately preceding winter index were more common than those with the time-lagged index, and especially so from the late 1930s to the early 1970s. However, from the mid 1970s onwards, the time-lagged relationship has become the most significant, suggesting a recent change in climate patterns. The strength of the current time-lagged relationship suggests that it might have relevance for other temperature-dependent ecological relationships.

  16. Patterns of Response Times and Response Choices to Science Questions: The Influence of Relative Processing Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckler, Andrew F.; Scaife, Thomas M.

    2015-01-01

    We report on five experiments investigating response choices and response times to simple science questions that evoke student "misconceptions," and we construct a simple model to explain the patterns of response choices. Physics students were asked to compare a physical quantity represented by the slope, such as speed, on simple physics…

  17. Using climate, energy, and spatial-based hypotheses to interpret macroecological patterns of North America chelonians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ennen, Joshua R.; Agha, Mickey; Matamoros, Wilfredo A.; Hazzard, Sarah C.; Lovich, Jeffrey E.

    2016-01-01

    Our study investigates how factors, such as latitude, productivity, and several environmental variables, influence contemporary patterns of the species richness in North American turtles. In particular, we test several hypotheses explaining broad-scale species richness patterns on several species richness data sets: (i) total turtles, (ii) freshwater turtles only, (iii) aquatic turtles, (iv) terrestrial turtles only, (v) Emydidae, and (vi) Kinosternidae. In addition to spatial data, we used a combination of 25 abiotic variables in spatial regression models to predict species richness patterns. Our results provide support for multiple hypotheses related to broad-scale patterns of species richness, and in particular, hypotheses related to climate, productivity, water availability, topography, and latitude. In general, species richness patterns were positively associated with temperature, precipitation, diversity of streams, coefficient of variation of elevation, and net primary productivity. We also found that North America turtles follow the general latitudinal diversity gradient pattern (i.e., increasing species richness towards equator) by exhibiting a negative association with latitude. Because of the incongruent results among our six data sets, our study highlights the importance of considering phylogenetic constraints and guilds when interpreting species richness patterns, especially for taxonomic groups that occupy a myriad of habitats.

  18. Impact of climate change on the timing of strawberry phenological processes in the Baltic States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Līga Bethere

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has been shown to impact aspects of agriculture and phenology. This study aims to quantify changes in the timing of garden strawberry blooms and harvests in the Baltic States using Regional Climate Models (RCMs. First, parameters for a strawberry phenology model based on the growing degree day (GDD methodology were determined. Growing degree days were calculated using a modified sine wave method that estimates the diurnal temperature cycle from the daily maximum and minimum temperature. Model parameters include the base temperature and the required cumulative GDD sum, estimated from phenological and meteorological observations in Latvia for the years 2010–2013 via iterative calibration. Then an ensemble of bias-corrected RCM results (ENSEMBLES project was used as input to the phenological model to estimate the timing of strawberry phenological processes for the years 1951–2099. The results clearly show that strawberry phenological processes can be expected to occur earlier in the future, with a significant change in regional patterns. Differences between coastal and inland regions are expected to decrease over time. The uncertainty of the results was estimated using the RCM ensemble spread, with northern coastal locations showing the largest spread.

  19. Sensitivity of Catchment Transit Times to Rainfall Variability Under Present and Future Climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilusz, Daniel C.; Harman, Ciaran J.; Ball, William P.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologists have a relatively good understanding of how rainfall variability shapes the catchment hydrograph, a reflection of the celerity of hydraulic head propagation. Much less is known about the influence of rainfall variability on catchment transit times, a reflection of water velocities that control solute transport. This work uses catchment-scale lumped parameter models to decompose the relationship between rainfall variability and an important metric of transit times, the time-varying fraction of young water (environmental tracer data from neighboring headwater catchments in Plynlimon, Wales from 1999 to 2008. At both sites, the mean annual FYW increased more than 13 percentage points from the driest to the wettest year. Yearly mean rainfall explained most between-year variation, but certain signatures of rainfall pattern were also associated with higher FYW including: more clustered storms, more negatively skewed storms, and higher covariance between daily rainfall and discharge. We show that these signatures are symptomatic of an "inverse storage effect" that may be common among watersheds. Looking to the future, changes in rainfall due to projected climate change caused an up to 19 percentage point increase in simulated mean winter FYW and similarly large decreases in the mean summer FYW. Thus, climate change could seasonally alter the ages of water in streams at these sites, with concomitant impacts on water quality.

  20. Plant-climate interactions over historical and geological time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cowling, Sharon A.

    2000-04-01

    Data-model comparisons are a useful approach to elucidating the relative influence of past climate change on vegetation dynamics over various spatial (global, regional, stand) and temporal (historical, geological) scales. Comparisons between changes in tree species abundance reconstructed from pollen and simulated from a forest gap model, for example, indicate that based solely on climate change over the past 1500 years, southern Scandinavian forests should be co-dominated by Tilia and Fagus. Picea has begun to more closely track changes in climate since 1000 years ago, however in the last few centuries the realised range limit of Picea has overshot the potential limit because of planting and establishment during favourable years. Not only can palaeodata-model comparisons provide practical information for forest managers, but they can help further our appreciation of the climatic catalysts underlying evolution of terrestrial ecosystems. Past changes in atmospheric CO 2 , independently or in combination with changes in climate, may have altered vegetation form and function such that palaeoplant assemblages were much different than today, speciation may have been promoted via biological vicariance, and some species may have been pushed to extinction. A thorough understanding of modern plant-climate interactions requires consideration of how past climate and atmospheric CO 2 events could have shaped physiological, biochemical and biophysical functioning of existing vegetation

  1. Plant-climate interactions over historical and geological time

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cowling, Sharon A.

    2000-04-01

    Data-model comparisons are a useful approach to elucidating the relative influence of past climate change on vegetation dynamics over various spatial (global, regional, stand) and temporal (historical, geological) scales. Comparisons between changes in tree species abundance reconstructed from pollen and simulated from a forest gap model, for example, indicate that based solely on climate change over the past 1500 years, southern Scandinavian forests should be co-dominated by Tilia and Fagus. Picea has begun to more closely track changes in climate since 1000 years ago, however in the last few centuries the realised range limit of Picea has overshot the potential limit because of planting and establishment during favourable years. Not only can palaeodata-model comparisons provide practical information for forest managers, but they can help further our appreciation of the climatic catalysts underlying evolution of terrestrial ecosystems. Past changes in atmospheric CO{sub 2}, independently or in combination with changes in climate, may have altered vegetation form and function such that palaeoplant assemblages were much different than today, speciation may have been promoted via biological vicariance, and some species may have been pushed to extinction. A thorough understanding of modern plant-climate interactions requires consideration of how past climate and atmospheric CO{sub 2} events could have shaped physiological, biochemical and biophysical functioning of existing vegetation.

  2. Optical time-domain analog pattern correlator for high-speed real-time image recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sang Hyup; Goda, Keisuke; Fard, Ali; Jalali, Bahram

    2011-01-15

    The speed of image processing is limited by image acquisition circuitry. While optical pattern recognition techniques can reduce the computational burden on digital image processing, their image correlation rates are typically low due to the use of spatial optical elements. Here we report a method that overcomes this limitation and enables fast real-time analog image recognition at a record correlation rate of 36.7 MHz--1000 times higher rates than conventional methods. This technique seamlessly performs image acquisition, correlation, and signal integration all optically in the time domain before analog-to-digital conversion by virtue of optical space-to-time mapping.

  3. Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming:Climate Sensitivity Rise With Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Shaffer, Gary; Huber, Matthew; Rondanelli, Roberto; Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke

    2016-01-01

    Future global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will depend on climate feedbacks, the effect of which is expressed by climate sensitivity, the warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 content. It is not clear how feedbacks, sensitivity, and temperature will evolve in our warming world, but past warming events may provide insight. Here we employ paleoreconstructions and new climate-carbon model simulations in a novel framework to explore a wide scenario range for the Paleoce...

  4. GeoInformation studies of soil and vegetation patterns along Climatic Gradients: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoshany, M.

    2009-04-01

    , spectral reflectance at the visible, NIR and SWIR ranges and emissions in the thermal spectrum. However, despite the magnitude of these projects very few of the methods were proved to be operational yet. The main shortcomings of exiting methods are: - They are highly dependent on accurate calibration which for large region is impractical. - Most of the methods are semi-empirical: case dependent rather than representing robust physical indicators. - There is no one imagery source which is good for all mapping purposes, most of the methods use single imagery source and there is relatively little synergy (fusion) between imagery sources. - Data continuity for long time periods exits mainly for low resolution sources which are limited in supporting modeling of processes. - Difficulties in scaling-up results and methods from the local to the broad-regional scales Within the scope of interest here the most important shortcoming concern the fact that relatively little work treated explicitly regions of high climatic gradient partly due to their high spatio-temporal heterogeneity. Three areas of recent advancements in studying explicitly transition zones between humid and arid regions : - Mapping bio-physical properties of vegetation forms (herbaceous, dwarf-shrubs and shrubs): cover proportions, biomass, primary productivity using synergy between optical (phonologies) and SAR imagery. - Mapping chemical and physical soil properties and estimating their erodibility using hyper and multi spectral methods, and SAR backscattering. - Mapping soil and vegetation patch patterns and their changes within the last decades using historical air-photographs. These advancement s lead to the detection of threshold zones between regions along these gradients according to following indicators: - Life-forms compositions, biomass and primary productivity. Analysis of relationships between biomass and rainfall allow differentiation between cases were vegetation compositions and properties which

  5. Mining local climate data to assess spatiotemporal dengue fever epidemic patterns in French Guiana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flamand, Claude; Fabregue, Mickael; Bringay, Sandra; Ardillon, Vanessa; Quénel, Philippe; Desenclos, Jean-Claude; Teisseire, Maguelonne

    2014-10-01

    To identify local meteorological drivers of dengue fever in French Guiana, we applied an original data mining method to the available epidemiological and climatic data. Through this work, we also assessed the contribution of the data mining method to the understanding of factors associated with the dissemination of infectious diseases and their spatiotemporal spread. We applied contextual sequential pattern extraction techniques to epidemiological and meteorological data to identify the most significant climatic factors for dengue fever, and we investigated the relevance of the extracted patterns for the early warning of dengue outbreaks in French Guiana. The maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, global brilliance, and cumulative rainfall were identified as determinants of dengue outbreaks, and the precise intervals of their values and variations were quantified according to the epidemiologic context. The strongest significant correlations were observed between dengue incidence and meteorological drivers after a 4-6-week lag. We demonstrated the use of contextual sequential patterns to better understand the determinants of the spatiotemporal spread of dengue fever in French Guiana. Future work should integrate additional variables and explore the notion of neighborhood for extracting sequential patterns. Dengue fever remains a major public health issue in French Guiana. The development of new methods to identify such specific characteristics becomes crucial in order to better understand and control spatiotemporal transmission. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  6. Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Harrison, Paula A

    2018-05-01

    Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural

  7. RCWIM - an improved global water isotope pattern prediction model using fuzzy climatic clustering regionalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terzer, Stefan; Araguás-Araguás, Luis; Wassenaar, Leonard I.; Aggarwal, Pradeep K.

    2013-04-01

    Prediction of geospatial H and O isotopic patterns in precipitation has become increasingly important to diverse disciplines beyond hydrology, such as climatology, ecology, food authenticity, and criminal forensics, because these two isotopes of rainwater often control the terrestrial isotopic spatial patterns that facilitate the linkage of products (food, wildlife, water) to origin or movement (food, criminalistics). Currently, spatial water isotopic pattern prediction relies on combined regression and interpolation techniques to create gridded datasets by using data obtained from the Global Network of Isotopes In Precipitation (GNIP). However, current models suffer from two shortcomings: (a) models may have limited covariates and/or parameterization fitted to a global domain, which results in poor predictive outcomes at regional scales, or (b) the spatial domain is intentionally restricted to regional settings, and thereby of little use in providing information at global geospatial scales. Here we present a new global climatically regionalized isotope prediction model which overcomes these limitations through the use of fuzzy clustering of climatic data subsets, allowing us to better identify and customize appropriate covariates and their multiple regression coefficients instead of aiming for a one-size-fits-all global fit (RCWIM - Regionalized Climate Cluster Water Isotope Model). The new model significantly reduces the point-based regression residuals and results in much lower overall isotopic prediction uncertainty, since residuals are interpolated onto the regression surface. The new precipitation δ2H and δ18O isoscape model is available on a global scale at 10 arc-minutes spatial and at monthly, seasonal and annual temporal resolution, and will provide improved predicted stable isotope values used for a growing number of applications. The model further provides a flexible framework for future improvements using regional climatic clustering.

  8. Time rescaling and pattern formation in biological evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Igamberdiev, Abir U

    2014-09-01

    Biological evolution is analyzed as a process of continuous measurement in which biosystems interpret themselves in the environment resulting in changes of both. This leads to rescaling of internal time (heterochrony) followed by spatial reconstructions of morphology (heterotopy). The logical precondition of evolution is the incompleteness of biosystem's internal description, while the physical precondition is the uncertainty of quantum measurement. The process of evolution is based on perpetual changes in interpretation of information in the changing world. In this interpretation the external biospheric gradients are used for establishment of new features of organization. It is concluded that biological evolution involves the anticipatory epigenetic changes in the interpretation of genetic symbolism which cannot generally be forecasted but can provide canalization of structural transformations defined by the existing organization and leading to predictable patterns of form generation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Climate time series analysis classical statistical and bootstrap methods

    CERN Document Server

    Mudelsee, Manfred

    2010-01-01

    This book presents bootstrap resampling as a computationally intensive method able to meet the challenges posed by the complexities of analysing climate data. It shows how the bootstrap performs reliably in the most important statistical estimation techniques.

  10. The sociological imagination in a time of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norgaard, Kari Marie

    2018-04-01

    Despite rising calls for social science knowledge in the face of climate change, too few sociologists have been engaged in the conversations about how we have arrived at such perilous climatic circumstances, or how society can change course. With its attention to the interactive dimensions of social order between individuals, social norms, cultural systems and political economy, the discipline of sociology is uniquely positioned to be an important leader in this conversation. In this paper I suggest that in order to understand and respond to climate change we need two kinds of imagination: 1) to see the relationships between human actions and their impacts on earth's biophysical system (ecological imagination) and 2) to see the relationships within society that make up this environmentally damaging social structure (sociological imagination). The scientific community has made good progress in developing our ecological imagination but still need to develop a sociological imagination. The application of a sociological imagination allows for a powerfully reframing of four key problems in the current interdisciplinary conversation on climate change: why climate change is happening, how we are being impacted, why we have failed to successfully respond so far, and how we might be able to effectively do so. I visit each of these four questions describing the current understanding and show the importance of the sociological imagination and other insights from the field of sociology. I close with reflections on current limitations in sociology's potential to engage climate change and the Anthropocene.

  11. Through Layers of Mud and Time: Lacustrine Archives of Quaternary Climate Variation (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, Sherilyn Claire

    2014-05-01

    (eccentricity) cycles, synchronous with global glacial cycles. Both precessional and millennial signals also are evident in Andean lake records, although the relative strength of insolation in pacing moisture variation appears to be reduced during times of high ice volume. Indeed, some of the largest excursions in effective moisture in tropical South America are associated with the Heinrich events. Finally, lacustrine archives offer the extraordinary potential to evaluate the role of climate in biotic processes, including landscape evolution and patterns of diversification and extinction through time by integration of multiple independent proxies contained in the same samples. Thus, I'll discuss several examples of the linkages between climate and evolutionary processes at both short and long temporal scales.

  12. Dynamic data analysis of climate and recharge conditions over time in the Edwards Aquifer, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, S. A.; Collins, J.; Banner, J.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the temporal patterns in datasets related to climate, recharge, and water resource conditions is important for informing water management and policy decisions. Data analysis and pipelines for evaluating these disparate sources of information are challenging to set up and rely on emerging informatics tools to complete. This project gathers data from both historical and recent sources for the Edwards Aquifer of central Texas. The Edwards faces a unique array of challenges, as it is composed of karst limestone, is susceptible to contaminants and climate change, and is expected to supply water for a rapidly growing population. Given these challenges, new approaches to integrating data will be particularly important. Case study data from the Edwards is used to evaluate aquifer and hydrologic system conditions over time as well as to discover patterns and possible relationships across the information sources. Prior research that evaluated trends in discharge and recharge of the aquifer is revisited by considering new data from 1992-2015, and the sustainability of the Edwards as a water resource within the more recent time period is addressed. Reusable and shareable analytical data pipelines are constructed using Jupyter Notebooks and Python libraries, and an interactive visualization is implemented with the information. In addition to the data sources that are utilized for the water balance analyses, the Global Surface Water Monitoring System from the University of Minnesota, a tool that integrates a wide number of satellite datasets with known surface water dynamics and machine learning, is used to evaluate water body persistence and change over time at regional scales. Preliminary results indicate that surface water body over the Edwards with differing aerial extents are declining, excepting some dam-controlled lakes in the region. Other existing tools and machine learning applications are also considered. Results are useful to the Texas Water Research

  13. Extracting Leading Nonlinear Modes of Changing Climate From Global SST Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhin, D.; Gavrilov, A.; Loskutov, E. M.; Feigin, A. M.; Kurths, J.

    2017-12-01

    Data-driven modeling of climate requires adequate principal variables extracted from observed high-dimensional data. For constructing such variables it is needed to find spatial-temporal patterns explaining a substantial part of the variability and comprising all dynamically related time series from the data. The difficulties of this task rise from the nonlinearity and non-stationarity of the climate dynamical system. The nonlinearity leads to insufficiency of linear methods of data decomposition for separating different processes entangled in the observed time series. On the other hand, various forcings, both anthropogenic and natural, make the dynamics non-stationary, and we should be able to describe the response of the system to such forcings in order to separate the modes explaining the internal variability. The method we present is aimed to overcome both these problems. The method is based on the Nonlinear Dynamical Mode (NDM) decomposition [1,2], but takes into account external forcing signals. An each mode depends on hidden, unknown a priori, time series which, together with external forcing time series, are mapped onto data space. Finding both the hidden signals and the mapping allows us to study the evolution of the modes' structure in changing external conditions and to compare the roles of the internal variability and forcing in the observed behavior. The method is used for extracting of the principal modes of SST variability on inter-annual and multidecadal time scales accounting the external forcings such as CO2, variations of the solar activity and volcanic activity. The structure of the revealed teleconnection patterns as well as their forecast under different CO2 emission scenarios are discussed.[1] Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. [2] Gavrilov, A., Mukhin, D., Loskutov, E., Volodin, E., Feigin, A., & Kurths, J. (2016

  14. Vulnerability of Lake Tahoe (CA-NV) mixing patterns in response to global warming and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahoo, G. B.; Schladow, G.; Reuter, J. E.

    2008-12-01

    Meteorological-driven processes exert large and diverse impacts on lakes internal heating, cooling and mixing. Thus, lakes' mixing pattern and ecosystem will likely be affected with continued global warming and climate change. The impact of climate change on Lake Tahoe (California-Nevada) was investigated here as a case study of climate change effects on the physical processes occurring within the lake. Climate change is a long-term (decades to millennium) shift in the statistics of the average weather that includes air temperature, precipitation, wind speed patterns, longwave radiations, shortwave radiation, cloud coverage etc. Thus, the trends (i.e., decreasing or increasing) of 21st century and A2 scenario weather variables for the modeling grid that includes Lake Tahoe were estimated using predictions of three general circulation models (GCMs): (1) Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate V.3.2 High Resolution (MIROC-HIRES) Japan, (2) The National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model (NCAR CCM V.3.0), and (3) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory V. CM2.1 (NOAA GFDL CM2.1). All three GCMs show that average air temperature for A2 scenario will increase approximately 4.5-5 oC by the end of 2100. GCMs' predictions also show increasing trend of longwave radiation, decreasing trend of wind speed, and decreasing trend of annual precipitation during 21st century. However, GCMs' predictions show that there is no significant change of shortwave radiation during 21st century. A series of simulation years into the future (i.e., 2000-2040) was established using flows, loads, and meteorology data sets for the period 1994-2004. Progressive changes in weather variables estimated from the trends were added to the daily meteorological values of the 40-year data. Results of 40-year simulations show that the lake continues to become warmer at the rate of 0.015 oC per year and more stable

  15. Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Consumers Time-Use Patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saptarshi Das

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available We use the American Time Use Survey (ATUS to characterize how different consumers in the US might use Autonomous Vehicles (AVs. Our approach is to identify sub-groups of the population likely to benefit from AVs and compare their activity patterns with an otherwise similar group. The first subgroup is working individuals who drive to work with long total travel times. Auto-travelers in the top 20% of travel time number 19 million and travel 1.6 h more on a workday than those in the bottom 80%. For car-commuting professionals, the additional travel time of the long-traveling group comes from 30 min less work, 29 min less sleep, and 30 min less television watching per day. The second subgroup is working individuals with a long travel time and who take public transport. Long public transit riders show very similar differences in activity times as the driving subgroup. Work, sleep, and video functionalities of AVs are presumably in high demand by both groups. The third sub-group identified is elderly retired people. AVs enable mobility-restricted groups to travel more like those without restrictions. We compare two age groups, 60–75 years and >75 years old, the latter, on average, experiencing more mobility restrictions than their younger counterparts. The retired population older than 75 years numbers 16 million and travels 14 min less per day than retirees aged 60–75 years. The main activity change corresponding to this reduced travel is 7 min per day less shopping and 8 min per day less socializing. If older retired people use AVs to match the lifestyle of the 60–75 years old group, this would induce additional personal travel and retail sector demand. The economic, environmental and social implications of AV are very difficult to predict but expected to be transformative. The contribution of this work is that it utilizes time-use surveys to suggest how AV adoption could induce lifestyle changes inside and outside the vehicle.

  16. Predicting Plant Diversity Patterns in Madagascar: Understanding the Effects of Climate and Land Cover Change in a Biodiversity Hotspot

    OpenAIRE

    Brown, Kerry A.; Parks, Katherine E.; Bethell, Colin A.; Johnson, Steig E.; Mulligan, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence r...

  17. Patterns and timing of loess-paleosol transitions in Eurasia: Constraints for paleoclimate studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeeden, Christian; Hambach, Ulrich; Obreht, Igor; Hao, Qingzhen; Abels, Hemmo A.; Veres, Daniel; Lehmkuhl, Frank; Gavrilov, Milivoj B.; Marković, Slobodan B.

    2018-03-01

    Loess-paleosol sequences are the most extensive terrestrial paleoclimate records in Europe and Asia documenting atmospheric circulation patterns, vegetation, and sedimentary dynamics in response to glacial-interglacial cyclicity. Between the two sides of the Eurasian continent, differences may exist in response and response times to glacial changes and finding these is essential to understand the climate systems of the northern hemisphere. Therefore, assessment of common patterns and regional differences in loess-paleosol sequences (LPS) is vital, but remains, however, uncertain. Another key to interpret these records is to constrain the mechanisms responsible for the formation and preservation of paleosols and loess layers in these paleoclimate archives. This study therefore compares LPS magnetic susceptibility records as proxies for paleosol formation intensity for selected sites from the central Chinese Loess Plateau and the Carpathian Basin in Europe over the last 440 kyr. Inconsistencies and crucial issues concerning the timing, correlation and paleoclimate potential of selected Eurasian LPS are outlined. Our comparison of Eurasian LPS shows generally similar patterns of paleosol formation, while highlighting several crucial differences. Especially for paleosols developed around 200 and 300 ka, the reported timing of soil formation differs by up to 30 ka. In addition, a drying and cooling trend over the last 300 ka has been documented in Europe, with no such evidence in the Asian records. The comparison shows that there is still uncertainty in defining the chronostratigraphic framework for these records on glacial-interglacial time scales in the order of 5-30 kyr for the last 440 ka. We argue that the baseline of the magnetic susceptibility proxy in loess from the Carpathian Basin is the most striking difference between European LPS and the Chinese Loess Plateau. In our opinion, many of the current timing/age differences may be overcome once a comparable

  18. Temporal Patterns in Diversity Change on Earth Over Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bambach, Richard

    2007-05-01

    Multi-celled animals and plants did not originate until about 600 million years ago. Since then the diversity of life has expanded greatly, but this has not been a monotonic increase. Diversity, as taxonomic variety or richness, is produced by the interaction of origination and extinction. Origination and extinction are almost equally balanced; it has taken 600 million years to accumulate 10 to 30 million living species. With most species life spans in the range of one to fifteen million years most species that have ever originated are extinct and global diversity has “turned over” many times. Paleontologists recognize about 18 short-term events of elevated extinction intensity and diversity loss of sufficient magnitude to warrant the term “mass extinction.” Interestingly, in only one instance, the end-Cretaceous extinction, is there a consensus for the triggering event, but the kill mechanism or mechanisms that caused the widespread death of lineages is not established. We know less about the cause-effect relationships for other events. Recently a 62 million-year periodicity in the fluctuation of diversity has been documented, expressed primarily in the variation of diversity of marine genera that survived 45 million years or less. Analysis of the pattern of diversity change at the finest temporal scale possible suggests that the short-term mass extinctions are superimposed on this regular pattern of diversity fluctuations, rather than causal of them. However, most mass extinctions (14 of 18) occurred during the intervals of general diversity loss. It remains to be seen how origination and extinction interact to produce the periodic fluctuation in diversity.

  19. Forestry in times of climatic change. From adaptation to climate protection; Forstwirtschaft in Zeiten des Klimawandels. Von Anpassung bis Klimaschutz

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    The notification 30/2010 of the Thuringian State Institute for Forest, Hunting and Fishing (Gotha, Federal Republic of Germany) reports on the forest management in times of the climatic changes. This notification consists of the following contributions: (1) Perception of the climatic change by private forest owners - A social-scientific investigation (Stefanie Rimkus); (2) Fundamentals for the designation of the inventory destination types adapted to climatic change for Thuringia (Nico Frischbier); (3) Recommendations of tree species adapted to climatic change for the forestry practice in Thuringia (Wolfgang Arenhoevel); (4) Development of carbon storage in the state-owned forest Thuringia (Thomas Wutzler); (5) The carbon inventories in copper beech forests (Fagus Sylvatica L.) under the influence of different silvicultural treatment (Martina Mund); (6) Wood products for the climate protection - The state of the art in Thuringia (Ingolf Profft); (7) HABIT-CHANGE - 'Adaptive management of climate-induced changes of habitat diversity in protected areas' (Nico Frischbier); (8) Cultivation experiences of non-indigenous tree species (Wolfgang Ahrenhoevel); (9) Registration of damages of the storm 'Xynthia' in the forestry office Bad Salzungen by means of ANDROMEDA {sup registered} data (Herbert Sagischewski); (10) www.waldundklima.net - The open internet portal on forest, wood and climate (Ingolf Profft).

  20. Evaluation of DGVMs in tropical areas: linking patterns of vegetation cover, climate and fire to ecological processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Onofrio, Donatella; von Hardenberg, Jost; Baudena, Mara

    2017-04-01

    Many current Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), including those incorporated into Earth System Models (ESMs), are able to realistically reproduce the distribution of the most worldwide biomes. However, they display high uncertainty in predicting the forest, savanna and grassland distributions and the transitions between them in tropical areas. These biomes are the most productive terrestrial ecosystems, and owing to their different biogeophysical and biogeochemical characteristics, future changes in their distributions could have also impacts on climate states. In particular, expected increasing temperature and CO2, modified precipitation regimes, as well as increasing land-use intensity could have large impacts on global biogeochemical cycles and precipitation, affecting the land-climate interactions. The difficulty of the DGVMs in simulating tropical vegetation, especially savanna structure and occurrence, has been associated with the way they represent the ecological processes and feedbacks between biotic and abiotic conditions. The inclusion of appropriate ecological mechanisms under present climatic conditions is essential for obtaining reliable future projections of vegetation and climate states. In this work we analyse observed relationships of tree and grass cover with climate and fire, and the current ecological understanding of the mechanisms driving the forest-savanna-grassland transition in Africa to evaluate the outcomes of a current state-of-the-art DGVM and to assess which ecological processes need to be included or improved within the model. Specifically, we analyse patterns of woody and herbaceous cover and fire return times from MODIS satellite observations, rainfall annual average and seasonality from TRMM satellite measurements and tree phenology information from the ESA global land cover map, comparing them with the outcomes of the LPJ-GUESS DGVM, also used by the EC-Earth global climate model. The comparison analysis with the LPJ

  1. Large-scale phytogeographical patterns in East Asia in relation to latitudinal and climatic gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, H.; Song, J.-S.; Krestov, P.; Guo, Q.; Wu, Z.; Shen, X.; Guo, X.

    2003-01-01

    Aim: This paper aims at determining how different floristic elements (e.g. cosmopolitan, tropical, and temperate) change with latitude and major climate factors, and how latitude affects the floristic relationships between East Asia and the other parts of the world. Location: East Asia from the Arctic to tropical regions, an area crossing over 50?? of latitudes and covering the eastern part of China, Korea, Japan and the eastern part of Russia. Methods: East Asia is divided into forty-five geographical regions. Based on the similarity of their world-wide distributional patterns, a total of 2808 indigenous genera of seed plants found in East Asia were grouped into fourteen geographical elements, belonging to three major categories (cosmopolitan, tropical and temperate). The 50??-long latitudinal gradient of East Asia was divided into five latitudinal zones, each of c. 10??. Phytogeographical relationships of East Asia to latitude and climatic variables were examined based on the forty-five regional floras. Results: Among all geographical and climatic variables considered, latitude showed the strongest relationship to phytogeographical composition. Tropical genera (with pantropical, amphi-Pacific tropical, palaeotropical, tropical Asia-tropical Australia, tropical Asia-tropical Africa and tropical Asia geographical elements combined) accounted for c. 80% of the total genera at latitude 20??N and for c. 0% at latitude 55-60??N. In contrast, temperate genera (including holarctic, eastern Asia-North America, temperate Eurasia, temperate Asia, Mediterranean, western Asia to central Asia, central Asia and eastern Asia geographical elements) accounted for 15.5% in the southernmost latitude and for 80% at 55-60??N, from where northward the percentage tended to level off. The proportion of cosmopolitan genera increased gradually with latitude from 5% at the southernmost latitude to 21% at 55-60??N, where it levelled off northward. In general, the genera present in a more

  2. Regional scale patterns of fine root lifespan and turnover under current and future climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormack, Luke M; Eissenstat, David M; Prasad, Anantha M; Smithwick, Erica A H

    2013-06-01

    Fine root dynamics control a dominant flux of carbon from plants and into soils and mediate potential uptake and cycling of nutrients and water in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding of these patterns is needed to accurately describe critical processes like productivity and carbon storage from ecosystem to global scales. However, limited observations of root dynamics make it difficult to define and predict patterns of root dynamics across broad spatial scales. Here, we combine species-specific estimates of fine root dynamics with a model that predicts current distribution and future suitable habitat of temperate tree species across the eastern United States (US). Estimates of fine root lifespan and turnover are based on empirical observations and relationships with fine root and whole-plant traits and apply explicitly to the fine root pool that is relatively short-lived and most active in nutrient and water uptake. Results from the combined model identified patterns of faster root turnover rates in the North Central US and slower turnover rates in the Southeastern US. Portions of Minnesota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania were also predicted to experience >10% increases in root turnover rates given potential shifts in tree species composition under future climate scenarios while root turnover rates in other portions of the eastern US were predicted to decrease. Despite potential regional changes, the average estimates of root lifespan and turnover for the entire study area remained relatively stable between the current and future climate scenarios. Our combined model provides the first empirically based, spatially explicit, and spatially extensive estimates of fine root lifespan and turnover and is a potentially powerful tool allowing researchers to identify reasonable approximations of forest fine root turnover in areas where no direct observations are available. Future efforts should focus on reducing uncertainty in estimates of root dynamics by better understanding how

  3. Circulation pattern-based assessment of projected climate change for a catchment in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Hoshin V.; Sapriza-Azuri, Gonzalo; Jódar, Jorge; Carrera, Jesús

    2018-01-01

    We present an approach for evaluating catchment-scale hydro-meteorological impacts of projected climate change based on the atmospheric circulation patterns (ACPs) of a region. Our approach is motivated by the conjecture that GCMs are especially good at simulating the atmospheric circulation patterns that control moisture transport, and which can be expected to change in response to global warming. In support of this, we show (for the late 20th century) that GCMs provide much better simulations of ACPs than those of precipitation amount for the Upper Guadiana Basin in central Spain. For the same period, four of the twenty GCMs participating in the most recent (5th) IPCC Assessment provide quite accurate representations of the spatial patterns of mean sea level pressure, the frequency distribution of ACP type, the 'number of rainy days per month', and the daily 'probability of rain' (they also reproduce the trend of 'wet day amount', though not the actual magnitudes). A consequent analysis of projected trends and changes in hydro-climatic ACPology between the late 20th and 21st Centuries indicates that (1) actual changes appear to be occurring faster than predicted by the models, and (2) for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) the expected decline in precipitation volume is associated mainly with a few specific ACPs (primarily directional flows from the Atlantic Ocean and Cantabric Sea), and with decreasing probability of rain (linked to increasing temperatures) rather than wet day amount. Our approach is a potentially more insightful alternative for catchment-scale climate impacts assessments than the common approach of statistical downscaling and bias correction.

  4. Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Stephan; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Huggel, Christian; Reynolds, John; Shugar, Dan H.; Betts, Richard A.; Emmer, Adam; Glasser, Neil; Haritashya, Umesh K.; Klimeš, Jan; Reinhardt, Liam; Schaub, Yvonne; Wiltshire, Andy; Regmi, Dhananjay; Vilímek, Vít

    2018-04-01

    Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity - rather unexpectedly - have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

  5. Interaction of ice sheets and climate on geological time scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stap, L.B.

    2017-01-01

    Since the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition (~34 Myr ago), land ice plays a crucial role in Earth’s climate. Through the ice-albedo and surface-height-temperature feedbacks, land ice variability strengthens atmospheric temperature changes induced by orbital and

  6. A linear projection for the timing of unprecedented climate in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Ho-Jeong; Jang, Chan Joo; Chung, Il-Ung

    2017-11-01

    Recently we have had abnormal weather events worldwide that are attributed by climate scientists to the global warming induced by human activities. If the global warming continues in the future and such events occur more frequently and someday become normal, we will have an unprecedented climate. This study intends to answer when we will have an unprecedented warm climate, focusing more on the regional characteristics of the timing of unprecedented climate. Using an in-situ observational data from weather stations of annual-mean surface air temperature in Korea from 1973 to 2015, we estimate a timing of unprecedented climate with a linear regression method. Based on the in-situ data with statistically significant warming trends at 95% confidence level, an unprecedented climate in Korea is projected to occur first in Cheongju by 2043 and last in Haenam by 2168. This 125-year gap in the timing indicates that a regional difference in timing of unprecedented climate is considerably large in Korea. Despite the high sensitivity of linear estimation to the data period and resolution, our findings on the large regional difference in timing of unprecedented climate can give an insight into making policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation, not only for the central government but for provincial governments.

  7. A theoretical model for fluvial channel response time during time-dependent climatic and tectonic forcing and its inverse applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goren, Liran

    2016-10-01

    The fluvial response time dictates the duration of fluvial channel adjustment in response to changing climatic and tectonic conditions. However, when these conditions vary continuously, the channel cannot equilibrate and the response time is not well defined. Here I develop an analytical solution to the linear stream power model of fluvial incision that predicts the channel topography as a function of time-dependent climatic and tectonic conditions. From this solution, a general definition of the fluvial response time emerges: the duration over which the tectonic history needs to be known to evaluate channel topography. This new definition is used in linear inversion schemes for inferring climatic or tectonic histories from river long profiles. The analytic solution further reveals that high-frequency climatic oscillations, such as Milankovitch cycles, are not expected to leave significant fingerprints on the long profiles of fluvially incised detachment-limited rivers.

  8. Spatial climate patterns explain negligible variation in strength of compensatory density feedbacks in birds and mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrando-Pérez, Salvador; Delean, Steven; Brook, Barry W; Cassey, Phillip; Bradshaw, Corey J A

    2014-01-01

    The use of long-term population data to separate the demographic role of climate from density-modified demographic processes has become a major topic of ecological investigation over the last two decades. Although the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that determine the strength of density feedbacks are now well understood, the degree to which climate gradients shape those processes across taxa and broad spatial scales remains unclear. Intuitively, harsh or highly variable environmental conditions should weaken compensatory density feedbacks because populations are hypothetically unable to achieve or maintain densities at which social and trophic interactions (e.g., competition, parasitism, predation, disease) might systematically reduce population growth. Here we investigate variation in the strength of compensatory density feedback, from long-term time series of abundance over 146 species of birds and mammals, in response to spatial gradients of broad-scale temperature precipitation variables covering 97 localities in 28 countries. We use information-theoretic metrics to rank phylogenetic generalized least-squares regression models that control for sample size (time-series length) and phylogenetic non-independence. Climatic factors explained < 1% of the remaining variation in density-feedback strength across species, with the highest non-control, model-averaged effect sizes related to extreme precipitation variables. We could not link our results directly to other published studies, because ecologists use contrasting responses, predictors and statistical approaches to correlate density feedback and climate--at the expense of comparability in a macroecological context. Censuses of multiple populations within a given species, and a priori knowledge of the spatial scales at which density feedbacks interact with climate, seem to be necessary to determine cross-taxa variation in this phenomenon. Despite the availability of robust modelling tools, the appropriate

  9. Spatial climate patterns explain negligible variation in strength of compensatory density feedbacks in birds and mammals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Herrando-Pérez

    Full Text Available The use of long-term population data to separate the demographic role of climate from density-modified demographic processes has become a major topic of ecological investigation over the last two decades. Although the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that determine the strength of density feedbacks are now well understood, the degree to which climate gradients shape those processes across taxa and broad spatial scales remains unclear. Intuitively, harsh or highly variable environmental conditions should weaken compensatory density feedbacks because populations are hypothetically unable to achieve or maintain densities at which social and trophic interactions (e.g., competition, parasitism, predation, disease might systematically reduce population growth. Here we investigate variation in the strength of compensatory density feedback, from long-term time series of abundance over 146 species of birds and mammals, in response to spatial gradients of broad-scale temperature precipitation variables covering 97 localities in 28 countries. We use information-theoretic metrics to rank phylogenetic generalized least-squares regression models that control for sample size (time-series length and phylogenetic non-independence. Climatic factors explained < 1% of the remaining variation in density-feedback strength across species, with the highest non-control, model-averaged effect sizes related to extreme precipitation variables. We could not link our results directly to other published studies, because ecologists use contrasting responses, predictors and statistical approaches to correlate density feedback and climate--at the expense of comparability in a macroecological context. Censuses of multiple populations within a given species, and a priori knowledge of the spatial scales at which density feedbacks interact with climate, seem to be necessary to determine cross-taxa variation in this phenomenon. Despite the availability of robust modelling tools

  10. An examination of geographic patterns of soil climate and its classification in the U.S. system of soil taxonomy

    OpenAIRE

    Winzeler, Hans Edwin

    2016-01-01

    Soil climate, the record of temporal patterns of soil moisture and temperature, is an important component of the structure of U.S. Soil Taxonomy. The U.S. Soil Survey has used the Newhall Simulation Model (NSM) for estimating soil climate from atmospheric climate records at weather stations since the 1970s. The current soil climate map of the U.S. was published in 1994 by using NSM runs from selected weather stations along with knowledge-based hand-drawn mapping procedures. We developed a rev...

  11. Coupling mammalian demography to climate through satellite time series of plant phenology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoner, D.; Sexton, J. O.; Nagol, J. R.; Ironside, K.; Choate, D.; Longshore, K.; Edwards, T., Jr.

    2016-12-01

    The seasonality of plant productivity governs the demography of primary and secondary consumers, and in arid ecosystems primary production is constrained by water availability. We relate the behavior, demography, and spatial distribution of large mammalian herbivores and their principal predator to remotely sensed indices of climate and vegetation across the western United States from 2000-2014. Terrain and plant community composition moderate the effects of climatological drought on primary productivity, resulting in spatial variation in ecosystem susceptibility to water stress. Herbivores track these patterns through habitat selection during key periods such as birthing and migration. Across a broad climatological gradient, timing of the start of growing season explains 75% of the variation in herbivore birth timing and 56% of the variation in neonatal survival rates. Initiation of autumn migration corresponds with the end of the growing season. Although indirectly coupled to primary production, carnivore home range size and population density are strongly correlated with plant productivity and growing-season length. Satellite measures of green reflectance during the peak of the growing season explain over 84% of the variation in carnivore home range size and 59% of the variation in density. Climate projections for the western United States predict warming temperatures and shifts in the timing and form of precipitation. Our analyses suggest that increased climatological variability will contribute to fluctuations in the composition and phenology of plant communities. These changes will propagate through consumer trophic levels, manifesting as increased home range area, shifts in the timing of migration, and greater volatility in large mammal populations. Combined with expansion and amplification of human land uses, these changes will likely have economic implications stemming from increased human-wildlife conflict and loss of ecosystem services.

  12. Global patterns of foliar nitrogen isotopes and their relationships with climate, mycorrhizal fungi, foliar nutrient concentrations, and nitrogen availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph M. Craine; Andrew J. Elmore; Marcos P. M. Aidar; Mercedes Bustamante; Todd E. Dawson; Erik A. Hobbie; Ansgar Kahmen; Michelle C. Mack; Kendra K. McLauchlan; Anders Michelsen; Gabriela . Nardoto; Linda H. Pardo; Josep Penuelas; Peter B. Reich; Edward A.G. Schuur; William D. Stock; Pamela H. Templer; Ross A. Virginia; Jeffrey M. Welker; Ian J. Wright

    2009-01-01

    Ratios of nitrogen (N) isotopes in leaves could elucidate underlying patterns of N cycling across ecological gradients. To better understand global-scale patterns of N cycling, we compiled data on foliar N isotope ratios, foliar N concentrations, mycorrhizal type and climate for over 11 000 plants worldwide. Global-scale comparisons of other components of the N cycle...

  13. Climate conditions in Sweden in a 100,000-year time perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjellstroem, Erik; Strandberg, Gustav; Brandefelt, Jenny; Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Smith, Ben; Wohlfarth, Barbara

    2009-04-01

    This report presents results from a project devoted to describing the climatic extremes within which the climate in Fennoscandia may vary over a 100,000 year time span. Based on forcing conditions which have yielded extreme conditions during the last glacial-interglacial cycle, as well as possible future conditions following continued anthropogenic emissions, projections of climate conditions have been made with climate models. Three different periods have been studied; i) a stadial within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) during the last glacial cycle, representing a cold period with a relatively small ice sheet covering parts of Fennoscandia, ii) the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with an extensive ice sheet covering large parts of northern Europe and iii) a possible future period in a climate warmer than today. The future case is characterised by high greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and a complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet. The climate modelling involved the use of a global climate model (GCM) for producing boundary conditions that were used by a regional climate model (RCM). The regional model produced detailed information on climate variables like near-surface air temperature and precipitation over Europe. These climate variables were subsequently used to force a vegetation model that produced a vegetation cover over Europe, consistent with the simulated regional climate. In a final step, the new vegetation cover from the vegetation model was used in the regional climate model to produce the final regional climate. For the studied periods, data on relevant climate parameters have been extracted from the regional model for the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas on the Swedish east coast and the Olkiluoto region on the west coast of Finland. Due to computational constraints, the modelling efforts include only one forcing scenario per time period. As there is a large degree of uncertainty in the choice of an appropriate forcing scenario, we perform

  14. Climate conditions in Sweden in a 100,000-year time perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kjellstroem, Erik; Strandberg, Gustav (Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrkoeping (Sweden)); Brandefelt, Jenny (Dept. of Mechanics, Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)); Naeslund, Jens-Ove (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Smith, Ben (Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden)); Wohlfarth, Barbara (Dept. of Geology and Geochemistry, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden))

    2009-04-15

    This report presents results from a project devoted to describing the climatic extremes within which the climate in Fennoscandia may vary over a 100,000 year time span. Based on forcing conditions which have yielded extreme conditions during the last glacial-interglacial cycle, as well as possible future conditions following continued anthropogenic emissions, projections of climate conditions have been made with climate models. Three different periods have been studied; i) a stadial within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) during the last glacial cycle, representing a cold period with a relatively small ice sheet covering parts of Fennoscandia, ii) the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with an extensive ice sheet covering large parts of northern Europe and iii) a possible future period in a climate warmer than today. The future case is characterised by high greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and a complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet. The climate modelling involved the use of a global climate model (GCM) for producing boundary conditions that were used by a regional climate model (RCM). The regional model produced detailed information on climate variables like near-surface air temperature and precipitation over Europe. These climate variables were subsequently used to force a vegetation model that produced a vegetation cover over Europe, consistent with the simulated regional climate. In a final step, the new vegetation cover from the vegetation model was used in the regional climate model to produce the final regional climate. For the studied periods, data on relevant climate parameters have been extracted from the regional model for the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas on the Swedish east coast and the Olkiluoto region on the west coast of Finland. Due to computational constraints, the modelling efforts include only one forcing scenario per time period. As there is a large degree of uncertainty in the choice of an appropriate forcing scenario, we perform

  15. Gaia Through Time: The Coevolution of Life and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasting, J. F.; Haqq-Misra, J.

    2009-12-01

    Earth has the peculiar property of remaining continuously habitable in spite of severe climate change throughout its 4.6 billion year (Ga) history. Life on this planet also has a resilient history, originating soon after Earth cooled and surviving many threats to its existence. In the anoxic Archean (2.8 Ga), the biological activity of methanogens resulted in greenhouse warming by methane and other hydrocarbons to counteract the 20% luminosity reduction from the faint young Sun, leading to the photochemical production of a shielding stratospheric organic haze. A negative feedback loop between methanogen activity and haze thickness maintained warm surface temperatures in the late Archean. The rise of atmospheric oxygen (2.4 Ga) following growth in photosynthesis by cyanobacteria triggered a global glaciation and may have been the most devastating climate change in Earth's history, yet the biosphere recovered to a richly oxic environment in which breathable life became possible. The adaptation of life to a range of ecological niche space, including extreme environments, has contributed to the persistence of life through mass extinctions, most significantly the Permian-Triassic extinction ~250 million years ago (Ma) when up to 96% of marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrates vanished. Abrupt climate change has also challenged the survival of life, including the Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth episode (~650 Ma) where evidence from glacial deposits suggests the tropical oceans froze over. During this period life may have thrived in a manner analogous to the Antarctic dry valleys, where sufficient sunlight penetrates the ice to allow photosynthesis. Present day climate change is marked by human influence on atmospheric composition and widespread loss of biodiversity, but even the most severe projected scenarios fall short of the global ecological catastrophes experienced in Earth's past--events from which life has always recovered. The challenge of global warming

  16. Time for Climate Change: Leadership, IT Climate, and their Impact on Organizational Performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wunderlich, Nico; Beck, Roman

    2017-01-01

    Information systems (IS) have become essential for operating firms successfully. How to align business and information technology (IT) executives to increase organizational output has been widely discussed in literature. This research focusses on pre-requisites and consequences of a positive IT c...... groups, and can confirm organization wide firm IS knowledge as a strategically important resource to achieve organizational performance.......Information systems (IS) have become essential for operating firms successfully. How to align business and information technology (IT) executives to increase organizational output has been widely discussed in literature. This research focusses on pre-requisites and consequences of a positive...... IT climate in organizations where the need for deep IT and business knowledge is constantly increasing. We shed light on how organizational leaders, both from business and IT, influence a positive organizational IT climate by IT leadership and subsequently, how an organizational IT climate affects strategic...

  17. Sphagnum peatland development at their southern climatic range in West Siberia: trends and peat accumulation patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peregon, Anna; Uchida, Masao; Shibata, Yasuyuki

    2007-01-01

    A region of western Siberia is vulnerable to the predicted climatic change which may induce an important modification to the carbon balance in wetland ecosystems. This study focuses on the evaluation of both the long-term and contemporary trends of peat (carbon) accumulation and its patterns at the southern climatic range of Sphagnum peatlands in western Siberia. Visible and physical features of peat and detailed reconstructions of successional change (or sediment stratigraphies) were analysed at two types of forest-peatland ecotones, which are situated close to each other but differ by topography and composition of their plant communities. Our results suggest that Siberian peatlands exhibit a general trend towards being a carbon sink rather than a source even at or near the southern limit of their distribution. Furthermore, two types of peat accumulation were detected in the study area, namely persistent and intermittent. As opposed to persistent peat accumulation, the intermittent one is characterized by the recurrent degradation of the upper peat layers at the marginal parts of raised bogs. Persistent peat accumulation is the case for the majority of Sphagnum peatlands under current climatic conditions. It might be assumed that more peat will accumulate under the 'increased precipitation' scenarios of global warming, although intermittent peat accumulation could result in the eventual drying that may change peatlands from carbon sinks to carbon sources

  18. Long-term climate and competition explain forest mortality patterns under extreme drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Derek J N; Stevens, Jens T; Earles, J Mason; Moore, Jeffrey; Ellis, Adam; Jirka, Amy L; Latimer, Andrew M

    2017-01-01

    Rising temperatures are amplifying drought-induced stress and mortality in forests globally. It remains uncertain, however, whether tree mortality across drought-stricken landscapes will be concentrated in particular climatic and competitive environments. We investigated the effects of long-term average climate [i.e. 35-year mean annual climatic water deficit (CWD)] and competition (i.e. tree basal area) on tree mortality patterns, using extensive aerial mortality surveys conducted throughout the forests of California during a 4-year statewide extreme drought lasting from 2012 to 2015. During this period, tree mortality increased by an order of magnitude, typically from tens to hundreds of dead trees per km 2 , rising dramatically during the fourth year of drought. Mortality rates increased independently with average CWD and with basal area, and they increased disproportionately in areas that were both dry and dense. These results can assist forest managers and policy-makers in identifying the most drought-vulnerable forests across broad geographic areas. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  19. Warming patterns in regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomez-Navarro, J.J.; Montavez, J.P.; Jimenez-Guerrero, P.; Jerez, S. [Murcia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Garcia-Valero, J.A. [Murcia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Delegacion Territorial en Murcia (ES). Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET); Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. [Univ. Complutense, Madrid (Spain). Dept. de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera

    2010-06-15

    A set of four regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula has been performed. Simulations were driven by two General Circulation Models (consisting of two versions of the same atmospheric model coupled to two different ocean models) under two different SRES scenario. The XXI century has been simulated following a full-transient approach with a climate version of the mesoscale model MM5. An Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOF) is applied to the monthly mean series of daily maximum and minimum 2-metre temperature to extract the warming signal. The first EOF is able to capture the spatial structure of the warming. The obtained warming patterns are fairly dependent on the month, but hardly change with the tested scenarios and GCM versions. Their shapes are related to geographical parameters, such as distance to the sea and orography. The main differences among simulations mostly concern the temporal evolution of the warming. The temperature trend is stronger for maximum temperatures and depends on the scenario and the driving GCM. This asymmetry, as well as the different warming rates in summer and winter, leads to a continentalization of the climate over the IP. (orig.)

  20. Satellite observations for describing fire patterns and climate-related fire drivers in the Brazilian savannas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. V. Mataveli

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In the Brazilian savannas (Cerrado biome fires are natural and a tool for shifting land use; therefore, temporal and spatial patterns result from the interaction of climate, vegetation condition and human activities. Moreover, orbital sensors are the most effective approach to establish patterns in the biome. We aimed to characterize fire, precipitation and vegetation condition regimes and to establish spatial patterns of fire occurrence and their correlation with precipitation and vegetation condition in the Cerrado. The Cerrado was first and second biome for the occurrence of burned areas (BA and hotspots, respectively. Occurrences are higher during the dry season and in the savanna land use. Hotspots and BA tend to decrease, and concentrate in the north, but more intense hotspots are not necessarily located where concentration is higher. Spatial analysis showed that averaged and summed values can hide patterns, such as for precipitation, which has the lowest average in August, but minimum precipitation in August was found in 7 % of the Cerrado. Usually, there is a 2–3-month lag between minimum precipitation and maximum hotspots and BA, while minimum VCI and maximum hotspots and BA occur in the same month. Hotspots and BA are better correlated with VCI than precipitation, qualifying VCI as an indicator of the susceptibility of vegetation to ignition.

  1. Satellite observations for describing fire patterns and climate-related fire drivers in the Brazilian savannas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verola Mataveli, Guilherme Augusto; Siqueira Silva, Maria Elisa; Pereira, Gabriel; da Silva Cardozo, Francielle; Shinji Kawakubo, Fernando; Bertani, Gabriel; Cezar Costa, Julio; de Cássia Ramos, Raquel; Valéria da Silva, Viviane

    2018-01-01

    In the Brazilian savannas (Cerrado biome) fires are natural and a tool for shifting land use; therefore, temporal and spatial patterns result from the interaction of climate, vegetation condition and human activities. Moreover, orbital sensors are the most effective approach to establish patterns in the biome. We aimed to characterize fire, precipitation and vegetation condition regimes and to establish spatial patterns of fire occurrence and their correlation with precipitation and vegetation condition in the Cerrado. The Cerrado was first and second biome for the occurrence of burned areas (BA) and hotspots, respectively. Occurrences are higher during the dry season and in the savanna land use. Hotspots and BA tend to decrease, and concentrate in the north, but more intense hotspots are not necessarily located where concentration is higher. Spatial analysis showed that averaged and summed values can hide patterns, such as for precipitation, which has the lowest average in August, but minimum precipitation in August was found in 7 % of the Cerrado. Usually, there is a 2-3-month lag between minimum precipitation and maximum hotspots and BA, while minimum VCI and maximum hotspots and BA occur in the same month. Hotspots and BA are better correlated with VCI than precipitation, qualifying VCI as an indicator of the susceptibility of vegetation to ignition.

  2. Time-series analysis of climatologic measurements: a method to distinguish future climatic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duband, D.

    1992-01-01

    Time-series analysis of climatic parameters as air temperature, rivers flow rate, lakes or seas level is an indispensable basis to detect a possible significant climatic change. These observations, when they are carefully analyzed and criticized, constitute the necessary reference for testing and validation numerical climatic models which try to simulate the physical and dynamical process of the ocean-atmosphere couple, taking continents into account. 32 refs., 13 figs

  3. Potential effects of climate change on inundation patterns in the Amazon Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Langerwisch

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Floodplain forests, namely the Várzea and Igapó, cover an area of more than 97 000 km2. A key factor for their function and diversity is annual flooding. Increasing air temperature and higher precipitation variability caused by climate change are expected to shift the flooding regime during this century, and thereby impact floodplain ecosystems, their biodiversity and riverine ecosystem services. To assess the effects of climate change on the flooding regime, we use the Dynamic Global Vegetation and Hydrology Model LPJmL, enhanced by a scheme that realistically simulates monthly flooded area. Simulation results of discharge and inundation under contemporary conditions compare well against site-level measurements and observations. The changes of calculated inundation duration and area under climate change projections from 24 IPCC AR4 climate models differ regionally towards the end of the 21st century. In all, 70% of the 24 climate projections agree on an increase of flooded area in about one third of the basin. Inundation duration increases dramatically by on average three months in western and around one month in eastern Amazonia. The time of high- and low-water peak shifts by up to three months. Additionally, we find a decrease in the number of extremely dry years and in the probability of the occurrence of three consecutive extremely dry years. The total number of extremely wet years does not change drastically but the probability of three consecutive extremely wet years decreases by up to 30% in the east and increases by up to 25% in the west. These changes implicate significant shifts in regional vegetation and climate, and will dramatically alter carbon and water cycles.

  4. Pacific decadal climate variability: Indices, patterns and tropical-extratropical interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henley, Benjamin J.

    2017-08-01

    Pacific decadal variability (PDV) plays a critical role in the climate system. Here I present a review of indices and patterns of decadal climate variability in the Pacific from observations and palaeoclimate reconstructions. I examine the spatial characteristics of Pacific sea surface temperature variability and the metrics used to track observations of PDV. I find commonalities between the PDV patterns, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and its North and South Pacific counterparts, the Pacific Decadal and South Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO and SPDO). I present a tool to provide probabilistic quantification of the recent state of the IPO, and use the tool to provide reliable estimates of IPO state up to 2 years prior to the present. The tool indicates a probability of 80-90% that the IPO remained in its negative state until 2014-2015. I review palaeoclimate reconstructions of the IPO and PDO, and outline advances and challenges in our pre-instrumental understanding of PDV. I draw attention to a Pacific-wide tropical-extratropical mechanism that suggests that the cool and warm phases of PDV are not driven by tropical or extratropical variability alone, but are instead the result of continuous tropical-extratropical interactions on decadal timescales. I conclude by noting key sources of remaining uncertainty and emphasising the need to better understand decadal variability. This will occur through continual improvements in observations, an expansion of palaeoclimate exploration and data collection, and renewed efforts in model development.

  5. Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.; Vecchia, A.V.

    2005-01-01

    Water availability on the continents is important for human health, economic activity, ecosystem function and geophysical processes. Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming. Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10–40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10–30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

  6. Modeling Relationships between Shrubland Biomass and Pattern Water Use Efficiency Along Semi-Arid Climatic Gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoshany, Maxim

    2014-05-01

    A new model is presented that represents the effect of the shrub patches' spatial arrangement on their water use efficiency and biomass productivity in water limited ecosystems. The model utilizes an Edge Ratio parameterization calculated as the ratio between vegetation edge area and the total vegetation area. Pattern Water Use Efficiency employs the following relationships: 1. Water Use efficiency would be directly related to shrub Cover Fraction. 2. Water Use Efficiency would be Inversely related to amount of edge areas (Edge Ratio). 3. The effect of Edge would be Inversely related to shrub cover fraction. 4. The effect of Edge would be Inversely related to the shrubs' height. Pattern Water Use Efficiency than modulates the use of precipitation in producing biomass. Preliminary assessment of the new model was achieved by comparing its results with biomass as extracted from high-resolution imagery based on allometric equations for 18 sites along a climatic gradient between Mediterranean and arid regions in Central Israel. In the next phase, the model is modified to allow its implementation with Landsat Imagery. This form of the model facilitated wide regional mapping of shrublands' biomass. Such mapping is fundamental for assessing the impacts of climate change on ecosystems productivity in desert fringe ecosystems.

  7. Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, P C D; Dunne, K A; Vecchia, A V

    2005-11-17

    Water availability on the continents is important for human health, economic activity, ecosystem function and geophysical processes. Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming. Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10-40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10-30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

  8. Shorebird Migration Patterns in Response to Climate Change: A Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, James A.

    2010-01-01

    The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies offer new opportunities for the application of mechanistic models to predict how continental scale bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier studies, we explored the phenotypic plasticity of a migratory population of Pectoral sandpipers by simulating the movement patterns of an ensemble of 10,000 individual birds in response to changes in stopover locations as an indicator of the impacts of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of migratory shorebirds. We used an individual based, biophysical migration model, driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate data, and biological field data. Mean stop-over durations and stop-over frequency with latitude predicted from our model for nominal cases were consistent with results reported in the literature and available field data. In this study, we take advantage of new computing capabilities enabled by recent GP-GPU computing paradigms and commodity hardware (general purchase computing on graphics processing units). Several aspects of our individual based (agent modeling) approach lend themselves well to GP-GPU computing. We have been able to allocate compute-intensive tasks to the graphics processing units, and now simulate ensembles of 400,000 birds at varying spatial resolutions along the central North American flyway. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect the processes underlying bird phenotypic plasticity responses to different climate change scenarios in the central U.S.

  9. Long-term climate and competition explain regional forest mortality patterns under extreme drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, D. J.; Latimer, A.; Stevens, J. T.; Earles, J. M.; Ellis, A.; Jirka, A.; Moore, J.

    2016-12-01

    Rising temperatures are amplifying drought-induced stress and mortality in forests globally. It remains uncertain, however, how tree mortality in drought-affected regions will be distributed across environments. In particular, during a regional drought, will areas that are already generally dry experience the most mortality? For any given level of aridity, will more mortality be associated with more intense competition? To answer these questions, we investigated the effects of average aridity (i.e., 35-year mean annual climatic water deficit) and competition (i.e., tree basal area) on tree mortality patterns using regional-scale aerial mortality surveys conducted by the U.S. Forest Service throughout the forests of California during a four-year statewide extreme drought from 2012 to 2015. We used statistical models to relate these mortality data to regional-scale climate layers we developed to represent long-term and annual climatic conditions and coarse-scale plant water balance, and to independent gridded estimates of tree basal area. We found that tree mortality increased by an order of magnitude during this period, spiking dramatically during 2015, the fourth year of drought. Tree mortality rates were associated with both long-term average climatic water deficit and tree basal area, as well as with the interaction of these factors, so that the highest mortality tended to occur in forests with high CWD and basal area. By identifying areas that are high in tree basal area relative to their level of CWD, these results can assist forest managers and policy-makers in identifying the most drought-vulnerable forests across broad geographic areas.

  10. Impact of severe climate variability on lion home range and movement patterns in the Amboseli ecosystem, Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.H. Tuqa

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we were interested in understanding if droughts influence the home range of predators such as lions, and if it does, in what ways the droughts influenced lions to adjust their home range, in response to prey availability. We monitored movements of ten lions fitted with GPS-GSM collars in order to analyze their home range and movement patterns over a six year period (2007–2012. We assessed the impact of a severe drought on the lion home range and movement patterns in the Amboseli ecosystem. There was a strong positive correlation between the home range size and distance moved in 24 h before and during the drought (2007–2009, while after the drought there was a significant negative correlation. A weak positive correlation was evident between the lion home range and rainfall amounts (2010–2012. The male and female home ranges varied over the study period. The home range size and movement patterns coincided with permanent swamps and areas of high prey density inside the protected area. Over the course of the dry season and following the drought, the ranges initially shrank and then expanded in response to decreasing prey densities. The lions spent considerable time outside the park boundaries, particularly after severe the drought. We conclude that under conditions of fragmented habitats, severe climate conditions create new challenges for lion conservation due to effects on prey availability and subsequent influences on carnivore species ranging patterns. Stochastic weather patterns can force wide-ranging species beyond current reserve boundaries, into areas where there will be greater conflicts with humans.

  11. Climate Change in the News: Allusions to the Catastrophe in Times of Calm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Horacio Lozano Ascencio

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has become a symbol of global risk society. It is one of the most discussed and agreed by the scientific community, however, between citizens, climate change does not achieve the same degree of consensus. The objects of study are the references to climate change in the news on Spanish television in "quiet times". The objective is to record information when there is no disaster or an international summit on climate change related. We analyze more than 200 pieces television in 2011 in national chains, regional and local perspectives emphasizing scientific, social, political and techniques from which addresses the issue. We conclude that treatment key information on climate change in "quiet times" are maintained as if at that time there were a catastrophe or an international summit.

  12. Variability modes of precipitation along a Central Mediterranean area and their relations with ENSO, NAO, and other climatic patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalimeris, Anastasios; Ranieri, Ezio; Founda, Dimitra; Norrant, Caroline

    2017-12-01

    This study analyses a century-long set of precipitation time series in the Central Mediterranean (encompassing the Greek Ionian and the Italian Puglia regions) and investigates the statistically significant modes of the interannual precipitation variability using efficient methods of spectral decomposition. The statistical relations and the possible physical couplings between the detected modes and the global or hemispheric patterns of climatic variability (the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO, the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO, the East Atlantic or EA, the Scandinavian or SCAND, and others) were examined in the time-frequency domain and low-order synchronization events were sought. Significant modes of precipitation variability were detected in the Taranto Gulf and the southern part of the Greek Ionian region at the sub-decadal scales (mostly driven by the SCAND pattern) and particularly at the decadal and quasi-decadal scales, where strong relations found with the ENSO activity (under complex implications of EA and NAO) prior to the 1930s or after the early-1970s. The precipitation variations in the Adriatic stations of Puglia are dominated by significant bi-decadal modes which found to be coherent with the ENSO activity and also weakly related with the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature intrinsic variability. Additionally, important discontinuities characterize the evolution of precipitation in certain stations of the Taranto Gulf and the Greek Ionian region during the early-1960s and particularly during the early-1970s, followed by significant reductions in the mean annual precipitation. These discontinuities seem to be associated with regional effects of NAO and SCAND, probably combined with the impact of the 1970s climatic shift in the Pacific and the ENSO variability.

  13. Sediment transport patterns and climate change: the downstream Tuul River case study, Northern Mongolia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietroń, Jan; Jarsjö, Jerker

    2014-05-01

    Ongoing changes in the Central Asian climate including increasing temperatures can influence the hydrological regimes of rivers and the waterborne transport of sediments. Changes in the latter, especially in combination with adverse human activities, may severely impact water quality and aquatic ecosystems. However, waterborne transport of sediments is a result of complex processes and varies considerably between, and even within, river systems. There is therefore a need to increase our general knowledge about sediment transport under changing climate conditions. The Tuul River, the case site of this study, is located in the upper part of the basin of the Selenga River that is the main tributary to Lake Baikal, a UNESCO World Heritage Site. Like many other rivers located in the steppes of Northern Mongolia, the Tuul River is characterized by a hydrological regime that is not disturbed by engineered structures such as reservoirs and dams. However, the water quality of the downstream Tuul River is increasingly affected by adverse human activities - including placer gold mining. The largest contribution to the annual river discharge occurs during the relatively warm period in May to August. Typically, there are numerous rainfall events during this period that cause considerable river flow peaks. Parallel work has furthermore shown that due to climate change, the daily variability of discharge and numbers of peak flow events in the Tuul River Basin has increased during the past 60 years. This trend is expected to continue. We here aim at increasing our understanding of future sediment transport patterns in the Tuul River, specifically considering the scenario that peak flow events may become more frequent due to climate change. We use a one-dimensional sediment transport model of the downstream reach of the river to simulate natural patterns of sediment transport for a recent hydrological year. In general, the results show that sediment transport varies considerably

  14. Phase Two European Energy Policy Project. European energy and climate policy - Time for something new

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helm, Dieter

    2014-01-01

    During 2014, European energy and climate change policy has moved centre stage. The annexation of Crimea and the destabilization of Eastern Ukraine have raised tensions with Russia to levels not seen since the Cold War. The EU has responded with an energy security plan, and sanctions. Developments elsewhere have further complicated matters. In the Middle East, the rapid advances of ISIS (now called the Islamic State), the internal conflicts in Libya, the war in Gaza, and the continuing negotiations with Iran on nuclear matters suggest that early optimism about the 'Arab Spring' was at best misplaced, and chronic instability has returned. In the US, the energy revolution continues to change the geopolitics of oil and gas, with the early skepticism about the scale of the changes and the shift towards North American energy independence giving way to recognition that the changes are permanent and profound - for both global energy markets and Europe. The full implications of the end of the commodity super-cycle are both profound for European energy policy and very poorly understood. Commodity prices have tumbled, with oil prices falling below $80 a barrel. On climate change, there is almost certainly not going to be a continuation of the Kyoto style international framework after the Paris conference in December 2015. Chinese emissions per head have now exceeded those of the Europeans, and it is at last being recognized that the climate change problem is one in which China, not the EU, is centre stage. China has announced that it does not intend to cap its carbon emissions until after 2030, by which time they may peak anyway - from a very much higher base after another decade and a half of increases. The Paris conference will see a series of 'pledges' and 'commitments' very much on the pattern of the Copenhagen Accord, not the credible, enforceable legally binding measures that had been proposed at the Durban Conference of the Parties in 2011

  15. Climate scenarios for Olkiluoto on a time-scale of 120,000 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pimenoff, N.; Venaelaeinen, A.; Jaervinen, H. [Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki (Finland)

    2011-12-15

    Posiva Oy is planning to dispose of spent nuclear fuel in a repository, to be constructed at a depth of 400 m in the crystalline bedrock at Olkiluoto, Finland. Planning the storage requires careful consideration of many aspects, including an assessment of long-term repository safety. For estimating possible climate states at Olkiluoto on a time-scale of 120,000 years, we analyze climate simulations of an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (CLIMBER-2) coupled with an ice sheet model (SICOPOLIS). The simulations into the future clearly show that the onset of the next glaciation is strongly dependent on the Earth's orbital variations and the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration. It is evident that due to global warming, the climate of the next centuries will be warmer and wetter than at present. Most likely, due to global warming and low variations in the Earth's orbit around the sun, the present interglacial will last for at least the next 30,000 years. Further, the future simulations showed that the insolation minima on the Northern Hemisphere 50,000-60,000 and 90,000-100,000 years after the present hold a potential for the onset of the next glaciation. Hence, on a time-scale of 120,000 years, one must take into account climate periods lasting several thousand years having the following features: an interglacial climate, a periglacial climate, a climate with an ice sheet margin near Olkiluoto, a glacial climate with an ice sheet covering Olkiluoto, and a climate with Olkiluoto being depressed below sea level after glaciation due to isostatic depression. Due to the uncertainties related to the evolution of the future climate, it is recommended the simulations into the far future to be used only qualitatively. Quantitative information about glacial climate is achieved from the reconstructions and simulations of the past climate. (orig.)

  16. Climate scenarios for Olkiluoto on a time-scale of 120,000 years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pimenoff, N.; Venaelaeinen, A.; Jaervinen, H.

    2011-12-01

    Posiva Oy is planning to dispose of spent nuclear fuel in a repository, to be constructed at a depth of 400 m in the crystalline bedrock at Olkiluoto, Finland. Planning the storage requires careful consideration of many aspects, including an assessment of long-term repository safety. For estimating possible climate states at Olkiluoto on a time-scale of 120,000 years, we analyze climate simulations of an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (CLIMBER-2) coupled with an ice sheet model (SICOPOLIS). The simulations into the future clearly show that the onset of the next glaciation is strongly dependent on the Earth's orbital variations and the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. It is evident that due to global warming, the climate of the next centuries will be warmer and wetter than at present. Most likely, due to global warming and low variations in the Earth's orbit around the sun, the present interglacial will last for at least the next 30,000 years. Further, the future simulations showed that the insolation minima on the Northern Hemisphere 50,000-60,000 and 90,000-100,000 years after the present hold a potential for the onset of the next glaciation. Hence, on a time-scale of 120,000 years, one must take into account climate periods lasting several thousand years having the following features: an interglacial climate, a periglacial climate, a climate with an ice sheet margin near Olkiluoto, a glacial climate with an ice sheet covering Olkiluoto, and a climate with Olkiluoto being depressed below sea level after glaciation due to isostatic depression. Due to the uncertainties related to the evolution of the future climate, it is recommended the simulations into the far future to be used only qualitatively. Quantitative information about glacial climate is achieved from the reconstructions and simulations of the past climate. (orig.)

  17. Climate scenarios for Olkiluoto on a time-scale of 100,000 years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pimenoff, N.; Venaelaeinen, A.; Jaervinen, H.

    2011-01-01

    Posiva Oy is planning to dispose of spent nuclear fuel in a repository, to be constructed at a depth of 400 m in the crystalline bedrock at Olkiluoto, Finland. Planning the storage requires careful consideration of many aspects, including an assessment of long-term repository safety. For estimating possible climate states at Olkiluoto on a time-scale of 100,000 years, we analyze climate simulations of an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (CLIMBER-2) coupled with an ice sheet model (SICOPOLIS). The simulations into the future clearly show that the onset of the next glaciation is strongly dependent on the Earth's orbital variations and the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. It is evident that due to global warming, the climate of the next centuries will be warmer and wetter than at present. Most likely, due to global warming and low variations in the Earth's orbit around the sun, the present interglacial will last for at least the next 30,000 years. Further, the future simulations showed that the insolation minima on the Northern Hemisphere 50,000-60,000 and 90,000-100,000 years after the present hold a potential for the onset of the next glaciation. Hence, on a time-scale of 100,000 years, one must take into account climate periods lasting several thousand years having the following features: an interglacial climate, a periglacial climate, a climate with an ice sheet margin near Olkiluoto, a glacial climate with an ice sheet covering Olkiluoto, and a climate with Olkiluoto being depressed below sea level after glaciation due to isostatic depression. Due to the uncertainties related to the evolution of the future climate, it is recommended the simulations into the far future to be used only qualitatively. Quantitative information about glacial climate is achieved from the reconstructions and simulations of the past climate. (orig.)

  18. Time-variable surface patterns as an indicator of the surface environments on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toyota, T.; Kawaguchi, K.; Kurita, K.

    2008-09-01

    volcanoes in Tharsis region such as Olympus Mons, Arsia Mons, Ascraeus Mons and Alba Patera EPSC Abstracts, Vol. 3, EPSC2008-A-00513, 2008 European Planetary Science Congress, Author(s) 2008 whereas it is not recognized in Celaunius Tholus, Tharsis Tholus and Elysium Mons. Because of the numbers of available images and stable climate situation, we have intensively investigated the pattern at Pavonis Mons. MOC wide-angle images and THEMIS-VIS images are used to check the temporal variation of the pattern from 1999 to 2007. In Fig. 2 the time-sequential images taking the SW flank show temporal pattern change of the dark halo. The drastic change can be found between 2000 and 2003. The assemblage of dark spindle-shaped pattern at higher positions before 2003 completely disappeared in the 2003 and the front of the halo receded to lower position. In 2001, a huge global dust storm has occurred. The resultant effect on the global climate by this dust storm is decrease in global daytime temperature and increase in global nighttime temperature due to the dust green house effect [2]. Since the dark halo appears to be formed in nighttime (the pattern is consistent with down-slope wind, which would be dominant at nigh time on the surface of high mountain.), the increase of the nighttime temperature should be responsible for erasing the pattern. Not only the position of the front of the dark halo but also the darkness changes with time. DN at the front position is determined by taking the difference from the reference point near the caldera. The maximum contrast around Ls=50 deg. and the minimum contrast around Ls=270 deg. are obtained. This indicates seasonal variation, which strongly suggests meteorological variation such as the atmospheric pressure controls the surface pattern. Fig. 3 shows THEMIS-VIS image, THEMIS-IRNighttime image and THEMIS-IR-Daytime image of the southern flank. THEMIS-VIS image clearly shows the upper boundary of the dark halo; brighter near the summit and darker

  19. Increase in flood risk resulting from climate change in a developed urban watershed - the role of storm temporal patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hettiarachchi, Suresh; Wasko, Conrad; Sharma, Ashish

    2018-03-01

    The effects of climate change are causing more frequent extreme rainfall events and an increased risk of flooding in developed areas. Quantifying this increased risk is of critical importance for the protection of life and property as well as for infrastructure planning and design. The updated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships and temporal patterns are widely used in hydrologic and hydraulic modeling for design and planning in the United States. Current literature shows that rising temperatures as a result of climate change will result in an intensification of rainfall. These impacts are not explicitly included in the NOAA temporal patterns, which can have consequences on the design and planning of adaptation and flood mitigation measures. In addition there is a lack of detailed hydraulic modeling when assessing climate change impacts on flooding. The study presented in this paper uses a comprehensive hydrologic and hydraulic model of a fully developed urban/suburban catchment to explore two primary questions related to climate change impacts on flood risk. (1) How do climate change effects on storm temporal patterns and rainfall volumes impact flooding in a developed complex watershed? (2) Is the storm temporal pattern as critical as the total volume of rainfall when evaluating urban flood risk? We use the NOAA Atlas 14 temporal patterns, along with the expected increase in temperature for the RCP8.5 scenario for 2081-2100, to project temporal patterns and rainfall volumes to reflect future climatic change. The model results show that different rainfall patterns cause variability in flood depths during a storm event. The changes in the projected temporal patterns alone increase the risk of flood magnitude up to 35 %, with the cumulative impacts of temperature rise on temporal patterns and the storm volume increasing flood risk from 10 to 170 %. The results also show that regional

  20. Long-term patterns in fish phenology in the western Dutch Wadden Sea in relation to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Walraven, Lodewijk; Dapper, Rob; Nauw, Janine J.; Tulp, Ingrid; Witte, Johannes IJ.; van der Veer, Henk W.

    2017-09-01

    Long-term patterns in fish phenology in the western Dutch Wadden Sea were studied using a 53 year (1960-2013) high resolution time series of daily kom-fyke catches in spring and autumn. Trends in first appearance, last occurrence and peak abundance were analysed for the most common species in relation to mode of life (pelagic, demersal, benthopelagic) and biogeographic guild (northern or southern distribution). Climate change in the western Wadden Sea involved an increase in water temperature from 1980 onwards. The main pattern in first day of occurrence, peak occurrence and last day of occurrence was similar: a positive trend over time and a correlation with spring and summer water temperature. This is counterintuitive; with increasing temperature, an advanced immigration of fish species would be expected. An explanation might be that water temperatures have increased offshore as well and hence fish remain longer there, delaying their immigration to the Wadden Sea. The main trend towards later date of peak occurrence and last day of occurrence was in line with our expectations: a forward shift in immigration into the Wadden Sea implies also that peak abundance is delayed. As a consequence of the increased water temperature, autumn water temperature remains favourable longer than before. For most of the species present, the Wadden Sea is not near the edge of their distributional range. The most striking phenological shifts occurred in those individual species for which the Wadden Sea is near the southern or northern edge of their distribution.

  1. Patterns and perceptions of climate change in a biodiversity conservation hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartter, Joel; Stampone, Mary D; Ryan, Sadie J; Kirner, Karen; Chapman, Colin A; Goldman, Abraham

    2012-01-01

    Quantifying local people's perceptions to climate change, and their assessments of which changes matter, is fundamental to addressing the dual challenge of land conservation and poverty alleviation in densely populated tropical regions To develop appropriate policies and responses, it will be important not only to anticipate the nature of expected changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local residents. The Albertine Rift region in East Africa is one of the world's most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense smallholder agriculture, high levels of land and resource pressures, and habitat loss and conversion. Results of three separate household surveys conducted in the vicinity of Kibale National Park during the late 2000s indicate that farmers are concerned with variable precipitation. Many survey respondents reported that conditions are drier and rainfall timing is becoming less predictable. Analysis of daily rainfall data for the climate normal period 1981 to 2010 indicates that total rainfall both within and across seasons has not changed significantly, although the timing and transitions of seasons has been highly variable. Results of rainfall data analysis also indicate significant changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall distribution, including longer dry periods within rainy seasons, which may contribute to the perceived decrease in rainfall and can compromise food security. Our results highlight the need for fine-scale climate information to assist agro-ecological communities in developing effective adaptive management.

  2. Future Arctic climate changes: Adaptation and mitigation time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin; Walsh, John E.; Stroeve, Julienne C.

    2014-02-01

    The climate in the Arctic is changing faster than in midlatitudes. This is shown by increased temperatures, loss of summer sea ice, earlier snow melt, impacts on ecosystems, and increased economic access. Arctic sea ice volume has decreased by 75% since the 1980s. Long-lasting global anthropogenic forcing from carbon dioxide has increased over the previous decades and is anticipated to increase over the next decades. Temperature increases in response to greenhouse gases are amplified in the Arctic through feedback processes associated with shifts in albedo, ocean and land heat storage, and near-surface longwave radiation fluxes. Thus, for the next few decades out to 2040, continuing environmental changes in the Arctic are very likely, and the appropriate response is to plan for adaptation to these changes. For example, it is very likely that the Arctic Ocean will become seasonally nearly sea ice free before 2050 and possibly within a decade or two, which in turn will further increase Arctic temperatures, economic access, and ecological shifts. Mitigation becomes an important option to reduce potential Arctic impacts in the second half of the 21st century. Using the most recent set of climate model projections (CMIP5), multimodel mean temperature projections show an Arctic-wide end of century increase of +13°C in late fall and +5°C in late spring for a business-as-usual emission scenario (RCP8.5) in contrast to +7°C in late fall and +3°C in late spring if civilization follows a mitigation scenario (RCP4.5). Such temperature increases demonstrate the heightened sensitivity of the Arctic to greenhouse gas forcing.

  3. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Precipitation Time Series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global precipitation time series provides time series charts showing observations of daily precipitation as well as accumulated precipitation compared to normal...

  4. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Temperature Time Series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global temperature time series provides time series charts using station based observations of daily temperature. These charts provide information about the...

  5. Global fire activity patterns (1996─2006 and climatic influence: an analysis using the World Fire Atlas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Oom

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Vegetation fires have been acknowledged as an environmental process of global scale, which affects the chemical composition of the troposphere, and has profound ecological and climatic impacts. However, considerable uncertainty remains, especially concerning intra and inter-annual variability of fire incidence. The main goals of our global-scale study were to characterise spatial-temporal patterns of fire activity, to identify broad geographical areas with similar vegetation fire dynamics, and to analyse the relationship between fire activity and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. This study relies on 10 years (mid 1996–mid 2006 of screened European Space Agency World Fire Atlas (WFA data, obtained from Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR and Advanced ATSR (AATSR imagery. Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis was used to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset. Regions of homogeneous fire dynamics were identified with cluster analysis, and interpreted based on their eco-climatic characteristics. The impact of 1997–1998 El Niño is clearly dominant over the study period, causing increased fire activity in a variety of regions and ecosystems, with variable timing. Overall, this study provides the first global decadal assessment of spatial-temporal fire variability and confirms the usefulness of the screened WFA for global fire ecoclimatology research.

  6. Emerging patterns of simulated regional climatic changes for the 21st century due to anthropogenic forcings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giorgi, Filippo; Whetton, Peter H.; Jones, Richard G.

    2001-01-01

    shows that a number of consistent patterns of regional change across models and scenarios are now emerging. For temperature, in addition to maximum winter warming in northern high latitudes, warming much greater than the global average is found over Central Asia, Tibet and the Mediterranean region...... show a consistent decrease in precipitation, such as Southern Africa and Australia in winter, the Mediterranean region in summer and Central America in both seasons. Possible physical mechanisms that lead to the simulated changes are discussed.......We analyse temperature and precipitation changes for the late decades of the 21st century (with respect to present day conditions) over 23 land regions of the world from 18 recent transient, climate change experiments with coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The analysis...

  7. Atmospheric circulation patterns during late Pleistocene climate changes at Lake Malawi, Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konecky, Bronwen L.; Russell, James M.; Johnson, Thomas C.; Brown, Erik T.; Berke, Melissa A.; Werne, Josef P.; Huang, Yongsong

    2011-12-01

    The climate of tropical Africa transitioned from an interval of pronounced, orbitally-paced megadroughts to more humid and stable conditions approximately 70,000 years ago (Scholz et al., 2007). The regional atmospheric circulation patterns that accompanied these climatic changes, however, are unclear due to a paucity of continental paleoclimate records from tropical Africa extending into the last interglacial. We present a new 140-kyr record of the deuterium/hydrogen isotopic ratio of terrestrial leaf waxes (δD wax) from drill cores from Lake Malawi, southeast Africa, that spans this important climatic transition. δD wax shifts from highly variable and relatively D-depleted to more stable and D-enriched around 56 ka, contemporary with the onset of more humid conditions in the region. Moisture source and transport history dominate the δD wax signal at Lake Malawi, with local rainfall amount playing a secondary role for much of the paleorecord. Analysis of modern moisture sources for Lake Malawi suggests that D-depletion of waxes during the megadroughts may have been caused by an enhanced contribution of the drier, D-depleted air mass currently located in central southern Africa to the Lake Malawi catchment. This D-depleted air mass is associated with the descending limb of the Hadley cell, which implies significant changes in the Hadley circulation during the megadroughts and related changes in the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone over Africa. These findings demonstrate the ability of δD wax to serve as an atmospheric tracer when used in conjunction with additional proxy records for moisture balance, and elucidate potential mechanisms for pronounced hydrological change in southeast Africa during the late Pleistocene.

  8. Consistent role of Quaternary climate change in shaping current plant functional diversity patterns across European plant orders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordonez, Alejandro; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2017-02-01

    Current and historical environmental conditions are known to determine jointly contemporary species distributions and richness patterns. However, whether historical dynamics in species distributions and richness translate to functional diversity patterns remains, for the most part, unknown. The geographic patterns of plant functional space size (richness) and packing (dispersion) for six widely distributed orders of European angiosperms were estimated using atlas distribution data and trait information. Then the relative importance of late-Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate change and contemporary environmental factors (climate, productivity, and topography) as determinants of functional diversity of evaluated orders was assesed. Functional diversity patterns of all evaluated orders exhibited prominent glacial-interglacial climate change imprints, complementing the influence of contemporary environmental conditions. The importance of Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate change factors was comparable to that of contemporary environmental factors across evaluated orders. Therefore, high long-term paleoclimate variability has imposed consistent supplementary constraints on functional diversity of multiple plant groups, a legacy that may permeate to ecosystem functioning and resilience. These findings suggest that strong near-future anthropogenic climate change may elicit long-term functional disequilibria in plant functional diversity.

  9. Consistent role of Quaternary climate change in shaping current plant functional diversity patterns across European plant orders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordonez, Alejandro; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2017-02-23

    Current and historical environmental conditions are known to determine jointly contemporary species distributions and richness patterns. However, whether historical dynamics in species distributions and richness translate to functional diversity patterns remains, for the most part, unknown. The geographic patterns of plant functional space size (richness) and packing (dispersion) for six widely distributed orders of European angiosperms were estimated using atlas distribution data and trait information. Then the relative importance of late-Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate change and contemporary environmental factors (climate, productivity, and topography) as determinants of functional diversity of evaluated orders was assesed. Functional diversity patterns of all evaluated orders exhibited prominent glacial-interglacial climate change imprints, complementing the influence of contemporary environmental conditions. The importance of Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate change factors was comparable to that of contemporary environmental factors across evaluated orders. Therefore, high long-term paleoclimate variability has imposed consistent supplementary constraints on functional diversity of multiple plant groups, a legacy that may permeate to ecosystem functioning and resilience. These findings suggest that strong near-future anthropogenic climate change may elicit long-term functional disequilibria in plant functional diversity.

  10. Canadian boreal forest greening and browning trends: an analysis of biogeographic patterns and the relative roles of disturbance versus climate drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulla-Menashe, Damien; Woodcock, Curtis E.; Friedl, Mark A.

    2018-01-01

    Recent studies have used satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series to explore geographic patterns in boreal forest greening and browning. A number of these studies indicate that boreal forests are experiencing widespread browning, and have suggested that these patterns reflect decreases in forest productivity induced by climate change. Here we use NDVI time series from Landsat, which has much higher quality and spatial resolution than imagery used in most previous studies, to characterize biogeographic patterns in greening and browning across Canada’s boreal forest and to explore the drivers behind observed trends. Our results show that the majority of NDVI changes in Canada’s boreal forest reflect disturbance-recovery dynamics not climate change impacts, that greening and browning trends outside of disturbed forests are consistent with expected ecological responses to regional changes in climate, and that observed NDVI changes are geographically limited and relatively small in magnitude. By examining covariance between changes in NDVI and temperature and precipitation in locations not affected by disturbance, our results isolate and characterize the nature and magnitude of greening and browning directly associated with climate change. Consistent with biogeographic theory, greening and browning unrelated to disturbance tended to be located in ecotones near boundaries of the boreal forest bioclimatic envelope. We observed greening to be most prevalent in Eastern Canada, which is more humid, and browning to be most prevalent in Western Canada, where forests are more prone to moisture stress. We conclude that continued long-term climate change has the potential to significantly alter the character and function of Canada’s boreal forest, but recent changes have been modest and near-term impacts are likely to be focused in or near ecotones.

  11. Climate driven changes to rainfall and streamflow patterns in a model tropical island hydrological system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayron M. Strauch; Richard A. MacKenzie; Christian P. Giardina; Gregory L. Bruland

    2015-01-01

    Rising atmospheric CO2 and resulting warming are expected to impact freshwater resources in the tropics, but few studies have documented how natural stream flow regimes in tropical watersheds will respond to changing rainfall patterns. To address this data gap, we utilized a space-for-time substitution across a naturally occurring and highly...

  12. Eolian sediment responses to late Quaternary climate changes: Temporal and spatial patterns in the Sahara

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swezey, C.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents a compilation of eolian-based records of late Quaternary climate changes in the Sahara. Although the data are relatively sparse, when viewed as a whole, they reveal a general pattern of widespread eolian sediment mobilization prior to 11,000 cal. years BP, eolian sediment stabilization from 11,000 to 5000 cal. years BP, and a return to widespread eolian sediment mobilization after 5000 cal. years BP. Furthermore, an eolian-based record from southern Tunisia reveals the existence of millennial-scale changes in eolian sediment behavior. These millennial-scale variations provide examples of eolian sediment responses to climate changes at a scale intermediate between seasonal and orbital ('Milankovitch') changes, and they are also coincident with abrupt atmospheric and oceanic changes. The general synchroneity of the eolian stratigraphic records and their coincidence with various oceanic and atmospheric changes suggest that global forcing mechanisms have influenced late Quaternary eolian sediment behavior in the Sahara. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V.

  13. Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hekkenberg, M.; Moll, H.C.; Uiterkamp, A.J.M. Schoot

    2009-01-01

    Energy demand depends on outdoor temperature in a 'u' shaped fashion. Various studies have used this temperature dependence to investigate the effects of climate change on energy demand. Such studies contain implicit or explicit assumptions to describe expected socio-economic changes that may affect future energy demand. This paper critically analyzes these implicit or explicit assumptions and their possible effect on the studies' outcomes. First we analyze the interaction between the socio-economic structure and the temperature dependence pattern (TDP) of energy demand. We find that socio-economic changes may alter the TDP in various ways. Next we investigate how current studies manage these dynamics in socio-economic structure. We find that many studies systematically misrepresent the possible effect of socio-economic changes on the TDP of energy demand. Finally, we assess the consequences of these misrepresentations in an energy demand model based on temperature dependence and climate scenarios. Our model results indicate that expected socio-economic dynamics generally lead to an underestimation of future energy demand in models that misrepresent such dynamics. We conclude that future energy demand models should improve the incorporation of socio-economic dynamics. We propose dynamically modeling several key parameters and using direct meteorological data instead of degree days. (author)

  14. Real-time Modification of Music with Dancer's Respiration Pattern

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Jeong-seob; Yeo, Woon Seung

    2012-01-01

    This research aims to improve the correspondence between music and dance, and explores the use of human respiration pattern for musical applications with focus on the motional aspect of breathing. While respiration is frequently considered as an indicator of the metabolic state of human body that contains meaningful information for medicine or psychology, motional aspect of respiration has been relatively unnoticed in spite of its strong correlation with muscles and the brain. This paper intr...

  15. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis

    2016-01-01

    Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions. PMID:26987606

  16. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jae-Won; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Kim, Ho; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis; Mueller, Ivo

    2016-01-01

    This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

  17. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Won Park

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021, and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

  18. Climate and landscape influence on indicators of lake carbon cycling through spatial patterns in dissolved organic carbon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapierre, Jean-Francois; Seekell, David A; Del Giorgio, Paul A

    2015-12-01

    Freshwater ecosystems are strongly influenced by both climate and the surrounding landscape, yet the specific pathways connecting climatic and landscape drivers to the functioning of lake ecosystems are poorly understood. Here, we hypothesize that the links that exist between spatial patterns in climate and landscape properties and the spatial variation in lake carbon (C) cycling at regional scales are at least partly mediated by the movement of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the aquatic component of the landscape. We assembled a set of indicators of lake C cycling (bacterial respiration and production, chlorophyll a, production to respiration ratio, and partial pressure of CO2 ), DOC concentration and composition, and landscape and climate characteristics for 239 temperate and boreal lakes spanning large environmental and geographic gradients across seven regions. There were various degrees of spatial structure in climate and landscape features that were coherent with the regionally structured patterns observed in lake DOC and indicators of C cycling. These different regions aligned well, albeit nonlinearly along a mean annual temperature gradient; whereas there was a considerable statistical effect of climate and landscape properties on lake C cycling, the direct effect was small and the overall effect was almost entirely overlapping with that of DOC concentration and composition. Our results suggest that key climatic and landscape signals are conveyed to lakes in part via the movement of terrestrial DOC to lakes and that DOC acts both as a driver of lake C cycling and as a proxy for other external signals. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Wavelet-based multifractal analysis on a time series of solar activity and PDO climate index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maruyama, Fumio; Kai, Kenji; Morimoto, Hiroshi

    2017-09-01

    There is increasing interest in finding the relation between solar activity and climate change. In general, fractal properties may be observed in the time series of the dynamics of complex systems, such as solar activity and climate. This study investigates the relations among solar activity, geomagnetic activity, and climatic regime shift by performing a multifractal analysis. To investigate the change in multifractality, we apply a wavelet transform to time series. The change in fractality of the sunspot number (SSN) correlates closely with that of the solar polar field strength. For the SSN and solar polar field strength, a weak multifractality or monofractality is present at the maximum SSN, minimum SSN, and maximum solar polar field strength. A strong multifractality is present two years before the maximum SSN. The climatic regime shift occurs when the SSN increases and the disturbance of the geomagnetic activity is large. At the climatic regime shift, the changes in the fractality of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index and changes in that of the solar activity indices corresponded with each other. From the fractals point of view, we clarify the relations among solar activity, geomagnetic activity, and climatic regime shift. The formation of the magnetic field of the sunspots is correlated with the solar polar field strength. The solar activity seems to influence the climatic regime shift. These findings will contribute to investigating the relation between solar activity and climate change.

  20. An abrupt centennial-scale drought event and mid-holocene climate change patterns in monsoon marginal zones of East Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yu; Wang, Nai'ang; Zhang, Chengqi

    2014-01-01

    The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0-7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to different geographical

  1. Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry A Brown

    Full Text Available Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar's plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.

  2. Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Kerry A; Parks, Katherine E; Bethell, Colin A; Johnson, Steig E; Mulligan, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar's plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.

  3. Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeebe, Richard E

    2013-08-20

    Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth's surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth's climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000-165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

  4. Real-Time Climate Simulations in the Interactive 3D Game Universe Sandbox ²

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldenson, N. L.

    2014-12-01

    Exploration in an open-ended computer game is an engaging way to explore climate and climate change. Everyone can explore physical models with real-time visualization in the educational simulator Universe Sandbox ² (universesandbox.com/2), which includes basic climate simulations on planets. I have implemented a time-dependent, one-dimensional meridional heat transport energy balance model to run and be adjustable in real time in the midst of a larger simulated system. Universe Sandbox ² is based on the original game - at its core a gravity simulator - with other new physically-based content for stellar evolution, and handling collisions between bodies. Existing users are mostly science enthusiasts in informal settings. We believe that this is the first climate simulation to be implemented in a professionally developed computer game with modern 3D graphical output in real time. The type of simple climate model we've adopted helps us depict the seasonal cycle and the more drastic changes that come from changing the orbit or other external forcings. Users can alter the climate as the simulation is running by altering the star(s) in the simulation, dragging to change orbits and obliquity, adjusting the climate simulation parameters directly or changing other properties like CO2 concentration that affect the model parameters in representative ways. Ongoing visuals of the expansion and contraction of sea ice and snow-cover respond to the temperature calculations, and make it accessible to explore a variety of scenarios and intuitive to understand the output. Variables like temperature can also be graphed in real time. We balance computational constraints with the ability to capture the physical phenomena we wish to visualize, giving everyone access to a simple open-ended meridional energy balance climate simulation to explore and experiment with. The software lends itself to labs at a variety of levels about climate concepts including seasons, the Greenhouse effect

  5. Timing of seasonal migration in mule deer: effects of climate, plant phenology, and life-history characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteith, Kevin L.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Stephenson, Thomas R.; Pierce, Beck M.; Conner, Mary M.; Klaver, Robert W.; Bowyer, R. Terry

    2011-01-01

    Phenological events of plants and animals are sensitive to climatic processes. Migration is a life-history event exhibited by most large herbivores living in seasonal environments, and is thought to occur in response to dynamics of forage and weather. Decisions regarding when to migrate, however, may be affected by differences in life-history characteristics of individuals. Long-term and intensive study of a population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA, allowed us to document patterns of migration during 11 years that encompassed a wide array of environmental conditions. We used two new techniques to properly account for interval-censored data and disentangle effects of broad-scale climate, local weather patterns, and plant phenology on seasonal patterns of migration, while incorporating effects of individual life-history characteristics. Timing of autumn migration varied substantially among individual deer, but was associated with the severity of winter weather, and in particular, snow depth and cold temperatures. Migratory responses to winter weather, however, were affected by age, nutritional condition, and summer residency of individual females. Old females and those in good nutritional condition risked encountering severe weather by delaying autumn migration, and were thus risk-prone with respect to the potential loss of foraging opportunities in deep snow compared with young females and those in poor nutritional condition. Females that summered on the west side of the crest of the Sierra Nevada delayed autumn migration relative to east-side females, which supports the influence of the local environment on timing of migration. In contrast, timing of spring migration was unrelated to individual life-history characteristics, was nearly twice as synchronous as autumn migration, differed among years, was related to the southern oscillation index, and was influenced by absolute snow depth and advancing phenology of plants

  6. Influence of urbanization pattern on stream flow of a peri-urban catchment under Mediterranean climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Carla S. S.; Walsh, Rory P. D.; Ferreira, António J. D.; Steenhuis, Tammo S.; Coelho, Celeste A. O.

    2015-04-01

    The demand for better life quality and lower living costs created a great pressure on peri-urban areas, leading to significant land-use changes. The complexity of mixed land-use patterns, however, presents a challenge to understand the hydrological pathways and streamflow response involved in such changes. This study assesses the impact of a actively changing Portuguese peri-urban area on catchment hydrology. It focuses on quantifying streamflow delivery from contributing areas, of different land-use arrangement and the seasonal influence of the Mediterranean climate on stream discharge. The study focuses on Ribeira dos Covões a small (6 km2) peri-urban catchment on the outskirts of Coimbra, one of the main cities in central Portugal. Between 1958 and 2012 the urban area of the catchment expanded from 8% to 40%, mostly at the expense of agriculture (down from 48% to 4%), with woodland now accounting for the remaining 56% of the catchment area. The urban area comprises contrasting urban settings, associated with older discontinuous arrangement of buildings and urban structures and low population density (80% woodland and highest (29% on sandstone; 18% on limestone) in the most urbanized (49-53% urban) sub-catchments. Percentage impermeable surface seems to control streamflow particularly during dry periods. Winter runoff was 2-4 times higher than total river flow in the summer dry season in highly urbanized areas, but was 21-fold higher in winter in the least urbanized sub-catchment, denoting greater flow connectivity enhanced by increased soil moisture. Although impermeable surfaces are prone to generate overland flow, the proximity to the stream network is an important parameter determining their hydrological impacts. During the monitoring period, the enlargement of 2% of the urban area at downslope locations in the Covões sub-catchment, led to a 6% increase in the runoff coefficient. In contrast, the urban area increase from 9 to 25% mainly in upslope parts of

  7. To move or to evolve: contrasting patterns of intercontinental connectivity and climatic niche evolution in "Terebinthaceae" (Anacardiaceae and Burseraceae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea eWeeks

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Many angiosperm families are distributed pantropically, yet for any given continent little is known about which lineages are ancient residents or recent arrivals. Here we use a comprehensive sampling of the pantropical sister pair Anacardiaceae and Burseraceae to assess the relative importance of continental vicariance, long-distance dispersal and niche-conservatism in generating its distinctive pattern of diversity over time. Each family has approximately the same number of species and identical stem age, yet Anacardiaceae display a broader range of fruit morphologies and dispersal strategies and include species that can withstand freezing temperatures, whereas Burseraceae do not. We found that nuclear and chloroplast data yielded a highly supported phylogenetic reconstruction that supports current taxonomic concepts and time-calibrated biogeographic reconstructions that are broadly congruent with the fossil record. We conclude that the most recent common ancestor of these families was widespread and likely distributed in the Northern Hemisphere during the Cretaceous and that vicariance between Eastern and Western Hemispheres coincided with the initial divergence of the families. The tempo of diversification of the families is strikingly different. Anacardiaceae steadily accumulated lineages starting in the Late Cretaceous–Paleocene while the majority of Burseraceae diversification occurred in the Miocene. Multiple dispersal- and vicariance-based intercontinental colonization events are inferred for both families throughout the past 100 million years. However, Anacardiaceae have shifted climatic niches frequently during this time, while Burseraceae have experienced very few shifts between dry and wet climates and only in the tropics. Thus, we conclude that both Anacardiaceae and Burseraceae move easily but that Anacardiaceae have adapted more often, either due to more varied selective pressures or greater intrinsic lability.

  8. Body size and activity times mediate mammalian responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCain, Christy M; King, Sarah R B

    2014-06-01

    Model predictions of extinction risks from anthropogenic climate change are dire, but still overly simplistic. To reliably predict at-risk species we need to know which species are currently responding, which are not, and what traits are mediating the responses. For mammals, we have yet to identify overarching physiological, behavioral, or biogeographic traits determining species' responses to climate change, but they must exist. To date, 73 mammal species in North America and eight additional species worldwide have been assessed for responses to climate change, including local extirpations, range contractions and shifts, decreased abundance, phenological shifts, morphological or genetic changes. Only 52% of those species have responded as expected, 7% responded opposite to expectations, and the remaining 41% have not responded. Which mammals are and are not responding to climate change is mediated predominantly by body size and activity times (phylogenetic multivariate logistic regressions, P mammals respond more, for example, an elk is 27 times more likely to respond to climate change than a shrew. Obligate diurnal and nocturnal mammals are more than twice as likely to respond as mammals with flexible activity times (P mammal species can behaviorally escape climate change whereas others cannot, analogous to paleontology's climate sheltering hypothesis. Including body size and activity flexibility traits into future extinction risk forecasts should substantially improve their predictive utility for conservation and management. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Storm blueprints patterns for distributed real-time computation

    CERN Document Server

    Goetz, P Taylor

    2014-01-01

    A blueprints book with 10 different projects built in 10 different chapters which demonstrate the various use cases of storm for both beginner and intermediate users, grounded in real-world example applications.Although the book focuses primarily on Java development with Storm, the patterns are more broadly applicable and the tips, techniques, and approaches described in the book apply to architects, developers, and operations.Additionally, the book should provoke and inspire applications of distributed computing to other industries and domains. Hadoop enthusiasts will also find this book a go

  10. Stream structure at low flow: biogeochemical patterns in intermittent streams over space and time

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacNeille, R. B.; Lohse, K. A.; Godsey, S.; McCorkle, E. P.; Parsons, S.; Baxter, C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change in the western United States is projected to lead to earlier snowmelt, increasing fire risk and potentially transitioning perennial streams to intermittent ones. Differences between perennial and intermittent streams, especially the temporal and spatial patterns of carbon and nutrient dynamics during periods of drying, are understudied. We examined spatial and temporal patterns in surface water biogeochemistry during a dry (2016) and a wet (2017) water year in southwest Idaho. We hypothesized that as streams dry, carbon concentrations would increase due to evapoconcentration and/or increased in-stream production, and that the heterogeneity of constituents within each stream would increase. We expected these patterns to differ in a high water year compared to a low water year due to algae scour. Finally, we expected that the spatial heterogeneity of biogeochemistry would decrease with time following fire. To test these hypotheses, in 2016 we collected surface water samples at 50 meter intervals from two intermittent headwater streams over 2,500 meter reaches in April, May, and June. One stream is burned and one remains unburned. In 2017, we collected surface water at the 50, 25 and 10 meter intervals from each stream once during low flow. 2016 results showed average concentrations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) increased 3-fold from April to June in the burned site compared to the unburned site. Interestingly, average concentrations of total nitrogen (TN) dropped substantially for the burned site over these three months, but only decreased slightly for the unburned site over the same time period. Between wet and dry water years, we observed a decrease in the spatial heterogeneity as measured by the standard deviation (SD) in conductivity at 50 meter intervals; the burned stream had a SD of 23.08 in 2016 and 11.40 in 2017 whereas the unburned stream had similar SDs. We conclude that the burned stream experienced

  11. Historical biogeography, divergence times, and diversification patterns of bumble bees (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Bombus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hines, Heather M

    2008-02-01

    Bumble bees (Bombus) are a cold-adapted, largely alpine group that can elucidate patterns of Holarctic historical biogeography, particularly in comparison to the alpine plants with which they likely coevolved. A recently published molecular phylogeny of bumble bees provides uniquely comprehensive species sampling for exploring historical patterns of distribution and diversification. Using this phylogeny and detailed data on extant distributions, I reconstruct the historical distribution of bumble bees in a temporal framework, estimating divergence times using fossil data and molecular rates derived from the literature. The nearly comprehensive phylogeny allows assessment of the tempo of diversification within the bumble bees using lineage-through-time plots and diversification statistics, which have been performed with special consideration to confidence intervals. These analyses reveal movements of Bombus concordant with geographic and climatic events of the late Cenozoic. The initial diversification of extant bumble bee lineages was estimated at around 25 to 40 Ma, near the Eocene-Oligocene boundary 34 Ma, a period of dramatic global cooling. Dispersal-vicariance analysis (DIVA) predicted an Old World Bombus ancestor, with early diversification events largely restricted to the eastern Old World. The numerous intercontinental dispersal events occurred mostly in the direction of Old World to New World and North America to South America. Early movements from the Palearctic into the Nearctic most likely took place after 20 Ma and may have coincided with a period of Miocene cooling that gave rise to taiga habitat across Beringia. Subsequent dispersal between these regions is estimated to have occurred among boreal and tundra-adapted species mostly in the last 5 million years. Radiations are estimated in both Nearctic and Neotropical regions at approximately 6 to 8 Ma and after 3.5 Ma, concordant with the opening of land corridors between the continents.

  12. Interactions of landscape disturbances and climate change dictate ecological pattern and process: spatial modeling of wildfire, insect, and disease dynamics under future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loehman, Rachel A.; Keane, Robert E.; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Wu, Zhiwei

    2016-01-01

    ContextInteractions among disturbances, climate, and vegetation influence landscape patterns and ecosystem processes. Climate changes, exotic invasions, beetle outbreaks, altered fire regimes, and human activities may interact to produce landscapes that appear and function beyond historical analogs.ObjectivesWe used the mechanistic ecosystem-fire process model FireBGCv2 to model interactions of wildland fire, mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), and white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola) under current and future climates, across three diverse study areas.MethodsWe assessed changes in tree basal area as a measure of landscape response over a 300-year simulation period for the Crown of the Continent in north-central Montana, East Fork of the Bitterroot River in western Montana, and Yellowstone Central Plateau in western Wyoming, USA.ResultsInteracting disturbances reduced overall basal area via increased tree mortality of host species. Wildfire decreased basal area more than beetles or rust, and disturbance interactions modeled under future climate significantly altered landscape basal area as compared with no-disturbance and current climate scenarios. Responses varied among landscapes depending on species composition, sensitivity to fire, and pathogen and beetle suitability and susceptibility.ConclusionsUnderstanding disturbance interactions is critical for managing landscapes because forest responses to wildfires, pathogens, and beetle attacks may offset or exacerbate climate influences, with consequences for wildlife, carbon, and biodiversity.

  13. Habitat-specific differences alter traditional biogeographic patterns of life history in a climate-change induced range expansion

    OpenAIRE

    Riley, Megan E.; Griffen, Blaine D.

    2017-01-01

    Range shifts and expansions resulting from global climate change have the potential to create novel communities with unique plant-animal interactions. Organisms expanding their range into novel biotic and abiotic environments may encounter selection pressures that alter traditional biogeographic patterns of life history traits. Here, we used field surveys to examine latitudinal patterns of life history traits in a broadly distributed ectotherm (mangrove tree crab Aratus pisonii) that has rece...

  14. Personality pattern in first-time-admitted alcoholics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Erik; Haslund, J; Larsen, Anna

    1992-01-01

    early dropout from treatment. 17.7% of respondents showed invalid MCMI scores, a finding correlated with comorbid intellectual impairment, concurrent treatment with benzodiazepines, length of time spent in completing the test, and length of time since abstinence. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA...

  15. Experiment, monitoring, and gradient methods used to infer climate change effects on plant communities yield consistent patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarah C. Elmendorf; Gregory H.R. Henry; Robert D. Hollisterd; Anna Maria Fosaa; William A. Gould; Luise Hermanutz; Annika Hofgaard; Ingibjorg I. Jonsdottir; Janet C. Jorgenson; Esther Levesque; Borgbor Magnusson; Ulf Molau; Isla H. Myers-Smith; Steven F. Oberbauer; Christian Rixen; Craig E. Tweedie; Marilyn Walkers

    2015-01-01

    Inference about future climate change impacts typically relies on one of three approaches: manipulative experiments, historical comparisons (broadly defined to include monitoring the response to ambient climate fluctuations using repeat sampling of plots, dendroecology, and paleoecology techniques), and space-for-time substitutions derived from sampling along...

  16. The spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Canada and their connections to large-scale climate patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y.; Gan, T. Y.; Tan, X.

    2017-12-01

    In the past few decades, there have been more extreme climate events around the world, and Canada has also suffered from numerous extreme precipitation events. In this paper, trend analysis, change point analysis, probability distribution function, principal component analysis and wavelet analysis were used to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme precipitation in Canada. Ten extreme precipitation indices were calculated using long-term daily precipitation data from 164 gauging stations. Several large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific-North American (PNA), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were selected to analyze the relationships between extreme precipitation and climate indices. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), specific humidity, and surface temperature were employed to investigate the potential causes of the trends.The results show statistically significant positive trends for most indices, which indicate increasing extreme precipitation. The majority of indices display more increasing trends along the southern border of Canada while decreasing trends dominate in the central Canadian Prairies (CP). In addition, strong connections are found between the extreme precipitation and climate indices and the effects of climate pattern differ for each region. The seasonal CAPE, specific humidity, and temperature are found to be closely related to Canadian extreme precipitation.

  17. Influence of breathing resistance of heat and moisture exchangers on tracheal climate and breathing pattern in laryngectomized individuals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scheenstra, Renske J.; Muller, Sara H.; Vincent, Andrew; Sinaasappel, Michiel; Hilgers, Frans J. M.

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to determine the influence of breathing resistance of heat and moisture exchangers (HMEs) on endotracheal climate and breathing pattern. METHODS: Endotracheal temperature and humidity and tidal volumes were measured in 11 laryngectomized patients with a

  18. Scenario Analysis on Climate Change Impacts of Urban Land Expansion under Different Urbanization Patterns: A Case Study of Wuhan Metropolitan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinli Ke

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Urban land expansion plays an important role in climate change. It is significant to select a reasonable urban expansion pattern to mitigate the impact of urban land expansion on the regional climate in the rapid urbanization process. In this paper, taking Wuhan metropolitan as the case study area, and three urbanization patterns scenarios are designed to simulate spatial patterns of urban land expansion in the future using the Partitioned and Asynchronous Cellular Automata Model. Then, simulation results of land use are adjusted and inputted into WRF (Weather Research and Forecast model to simulate regional climate change. The results show that: (1 warming effect is strongest under centralized urbanization while it is on the opposite under decentralized scenario; (2 the warming effect is stronger and wider in centralized urbanization scenario than in decentralized urbanization scenario; (3 the impact trends of urban land use expansion on precipitation are basically the same under different scenarios; (4 and spatial distribution of rainfall was more concentrated under centralized urbanization scenario, and there is a rainfall center of wider scope, greater intensity. Accordingly, it can be concluded that decentralized urbanization is a reasonable urbanization pattern to mitigate climate change in rapid urbanization period.

  19. Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to variation in terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Robert H. Gardner; Sandra Lavorel; Mike D. Flannigan; Ian D. Davies; Chao Li; James M. Lenihan; T. Scott Rupp; Florent. Mouillot

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity of nlodelled area burned to environmental factors across a range of independently-developed landscape-fire-succession models. The sensitivity of area burned to variation in four factors, namely terrain (flat, undulating and mountainous), fuel pattern (finely and coarsely clumped), climate (observed, warmer &...

  20. Climate vs. topography – spatial patterns of plant species diversity and endemism on a high-elevation island

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Irl, Severin David Howard; Harter, David E. V.; Steinbauer, Manuel

    2015-01-01

    the independent contribution of climatic and topographic variables to spatial diversity patterns. We constructed a presence/absence matrix of perennial endemic and native vascular plant species (including subspecies) in 890 plots on the environmentally very heterogeneous island of La Palma, Canary Islands......Climate and topography are among the most fundamental drivers of plant diversity. Here, we assessed the importance of climate and topography in explaining diversity patterns of species richness, endemic richness and endemicity on the landscape scale of an oceanic island and evaluated...... for an integrated conservation approach acknowledging different diversity measures to protect the complete spectrum of diversity. High-elevation islands such as La Palma are highly suitable to study drivers of diversity and endemism, as they offer environmental gradients of continental magnitude on the landscape...

  1. Changing distributions of carbon monoxide (CO) over Africa from climate and land use driven fire patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worden, Helen; Bloom, Anthony; Worden, John

    2017-04-01

    Satellite measurements of atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) provide a signature for biomass burning and anthropogenic combustion-related pollution emissions. CO plays an important role in both air quality and climate as a precursor for tropospheric ozone and as a major sink of OH, the atmospheric "detergent" that affects the lifetime of methane and other pollutants. Worden et al., [2013] showed decreasing global CO values in time series of satellite total column CO measurements over the past decade. All of the satellite instruments that measure CO in the thermal infrared showed consistent inter-annual variability due to fires and possibly the global recession in late 2008. Observed decreases in CO over N. America and Europe were consistent with expected decreases in CO emissions inventories [Granier et al., 2011], however, the decrease is not uniform globally. In particular, some regions of Africa show negligible trends in CO. Here we examine the 14-year time series (2002-2015) of surface and total column CO concentrations from MOPITT and fire radiative power (FRP) from MODIS over Africa to study the attribution of changes in CO. We are interested in changes in fires due to climate variability (El Nino) and land-use, including urbanization, and their effect on atmospheric CO burden.

  2. Impact of Climate Variability and Landscape Patterns on Water Budget and Nutrient Loads in a Peri-urban Watershed: A Coupled Analysis Using Process-based Hydrological Model and Landscape Indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chongwei; Zhang, Yajuan; Kharel, Gehendra; Zou, Chris B

    2018-06-01

    Nutrient discharge into peri-urban streams and reservoirs constitutes a significant pressure on environmental management, but quantitative assessment of non-point source pollution under climate variability in fast changing peri-urban watersheds is challenging. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate water budget and nutrient loads for landscape patterns representing a 30-year progression of urbanization in a peri-urban watershed near Tianjin metropolis, China. A suite of landscape pattern indices was related to nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) loads under dry and wet climate using CANOCO redundancy analysis. The calibrated SWAT model was adequate to simulate runoff and nutrient loads for this peri-urban watershed, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R 2 ) > 0.70 and percentage bias (PBIAS) between -7 and +18 for calibration and validation periods. With the progression of urbanization, forest remained the main "sink" landscape while cultivated and urban lands remained the main "source" landscapes with the role of orchard and grassland being uncertain and changing with time. Compared to 1984, the landscape use pattern in 2013 increased nutrient discharge by 10%. Nutrient loads modelled under wet climate were 3-4 times higher than that under dry climate for the same landscape pattern. Results indicate that climate change could impose a far greater impact on runoff and nutrient discharge in a peri-urban watershed than landscape pattern change.

  3. Stable isotope compositions of speleothems from the last interglacial - Spatial patterns of climate fluctuations in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demény, Attila; Kern, Zoltán; Czuppon, György; Németh, Alexandra; Leél-Őssy, Szabolcs; Siklósy, Zoltán; Lin, Ke; Hu, Hsun-Ming; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Vennemann, Torsten W.; Haszpra, László

    2017-04-01

    Studies on the last interglacial (LIG) can provide information on how our environment behaved in a period of slightly higher global temperatures at about 125 ± 4 ka, even if it is not the best analogue for the Holocene. The available LIG climate proxy records are usually better preserved and can be studied at a higher resolution than those of the preceding interglacials, allowing detailed comparisons. This paper presents complex stable hydrogen, carbon and oxygen isotope records obtained for carbonate (δ13C and δ18Ocarb) and fluid inclusion hosted water (δD and δ18Ow) of a stalagmite from the Baradla Cave system in Central Europe that covers most of the LIG, as proven by U-Th dates. Comparing its C and O isotope data with records reported for other speleothem (cave-hosted carbonate) deposits from Europe revealed the complex behavior of these climate proxies, with a concerted relative increase in 18O of carbonates from 128 to 120 ka and synchronized shifts in the opposite direction after 119 ka. The hydrogen isotope analyses of inclusion-hosted water extracted from the BAR-II stalagmite also correspond to the regional climate proxy records, with meaningful deviations from global temperature trends. Beside following the general paleotemperature pattern from the climate optimum (high δD values up to -64‰ around 120 ka) to the subsequent cooling starting at about 119 ka (low δD values down to -90‰ at about 109 ka), a period between 126.5 and 123 ka with low δD values (down to -81‰) is detected in the BAR-II stalagmite. Although the isotope shifts are muted in the C-O isotope data of carbonate due to competitive fractionation processes, the δ13C data show a positive relationship with the δD pattern, indicating humidity - and possibly temperature - variations. The periods with low δD values fit well to temperature and humidity changes inferred from proxy records from western Europe to the eastern Mediterranean. Spatial distributions of these variables

  4. Determinants and dynamics of banded vegetation pattern migration in arid climates

    OpenAIRE

    Deblauwe, Vincent; Couteron, Pierre; Bogaert, J.; Barbier, Nicolas

    2012-01-01

    Dense vegetation bands aligned to contour levels and alternating at regular intervals with relatively barren interbands have been reported at the margins of all tropical deserts. Since their discovery in the 1950s, it has been supposed that these vegetation bands migrate upslope, forming a space time cyclic pattern. Evidence to date has been relatively sparse and indirect, and observations have remained conflicting. Unequivocal photographic evidence of upslope migration (a few decimeters per ...

  5. Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Global NDVI Trends: Correlations with Climate and Human Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ya Liu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Changes in vegetation activity are driven by multiple natural and anthropogenic factors, which can be reflected by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI derived from satellites. In this paper, NDVI trends from 1982 to 2012 are first estimated by the Theil–Sen median slope method to explore their spatial and temporal patterns. Then, the impact of climate variables and human activity on the observed NDVI trends is analyzed. Our results show that on average, NDVI increased by 0.46 × 10−3 per year from 1982 to 2012 globally with decadal variations. For most regions of the world, a greening (increasing–browning (decreasing–greening (G-B-G trend is observed over the periods 1982–2004, 1995–2004, and 2005–2012, respectively. A positive partial correlation of NDVI and temperature is observed in the first period but it decreases and occasionally becomes negative in the following periods, especially in the Humid Temperate and Dry Domain Regions. This suggests a weakened effect of temperature on vegetation growth. Precipitation, on the other hand, is found to have a positive impact on the NDVI trend. This effect becomes stronger in the third period of 1995–2004, especially in the Dry Domain Region. Anthropogenic effects and human activities, derived here from the Human Footprint Dataset and the associated Human Influence Index (HII, have varied impacts on the magnitude (absolute value of the NDVI trends across continents. Significant positive effects are found in Asia, Africa, and Europe, suggesting that intensive human activity could accelerate the change in NDVI and vegetation. A more accurate attribution of vegetation change to specific climatic and anthropogenic factors is instrumental to understand vegetation dynamics and requires further research.

  6. Interaction Patterns of Premarital Couples: Typological Assessment Over Time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norem, Rosalie H.; Olson, David H.

    1983-01-01

    Studied interaction styles of premarital couples (N=148) and developed a typology of couple interaction at two points in time before marriage. Results showed only 7 percent of the couples had the same type of interaction at the two testings, supporting the hypothesis that premarital relationships are fluid. (WAS)

  7. Alcohol Consumption Patterns and Consequences on Prime Time Network TV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, Dennis T.

    A study was conducted to establish a baseline of facts concerning the extent, nature, and social functions of the drinking of alcoholic beverages as depicted on prime time network television programing. A content analysis was undertaken of a random sample of programs drawn from the three major networks over a period of 14 evenings. The primary…

  8. Food Consumption Patterns in Times of Economic Recession

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Theodoridou, Glykeria; Tsakiridou, Efthimia; Kalogeras, Nikos; Mattas, Konstantinos

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study is to identify the factors influencing consumers' purchasing behaviour for food, in times of crisis. Intercept survey was conducted in a random selected sample consisted of 553 consumers between January and May 2016 in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki. Multivariate data analysis

  9. The timing and spatiotemporal patterning of Neanderthal disappearance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higham, Tom; Douka, Katerina; Wood, Rachel; Ramsey, Christopher Bronk; Brock, Fiona; Basell, Laura; Camps, Marta; Arrizabalaga, Alvaro; Baena, Javier; Barroso-Ruíz, Cecillio; Bergman, Christopher; Boitard, Coralie; Boscato, Paolo; Caparrós, Miguel; Conard, Nicholas J; Draily, Christelle; Froment, Alain; Galván, Bertila; Gambassini, Paolo; Garcia-Moreno, Alejandro; Grimaldi, Stefano; Haesaerts, Paul; Holt, Brigitte; Iriarte-Chiapusso, Maria-Jose; Jelinek, Arthur; Jordá Pardo, Jesús F; Maíllo-Fernández, José-Manuel; Marom, Anat; Maroto, Julià; Menéndez, Mario; Metz, Laure; Morin, Eugène; Moroni, Adriana; Negrino, Fabio; Panagopoulou, Eleni; Peresani, Marco; Pirson, Stéphane; de la Rasilla, Marco; Riel-Salvatore, Julien; Ronchitelli, Annamaria; Santamaria, David; Semal, Patrick; Slimak, Ludovic; Soler, Joaquim; Soler, Narcís; Villaluenga, Aritza; Pinhasi, Ron; Jacobi, Roger

    2014-08-21

    The timing of Neanderthal disappearance and the extent to which they overlapped with the earliest incoming anatomically modern humans (AMHs) in Eurasia are key questions in palaeoanthropology. Determining the spatiotemporal relationship between the two populations is crucial if we are to understand the processes, timing and reasons leading to the disappearance of Neanderthals and the likelihood of cultural and genetic exchange. Serious technical challenges, however, have hindered reliable dating of the period, as the radiocarbon method reaches its limit at ∼50,000 years ago. Here we apply improved accelerator mass spectrometry (14)C techniques to construct robust chronologies from 40 key Mousterian and Neanderthal archaeological sites, ranging from Russia to Spain. Bayesian age modelling was used to generate probability distribution functions to determine the latest appearance date. We show that the Mousterian ended by 41,030-39,260 calibrated years bp (at 95.4% probability) across Europe. We also demonstrate that succeeding 'transitional' archaeological industries, one of which has been linked with Neanderthals (Châtelperronian), end at a similar time. Our data indicate that the disappearance of Neanderthals occurred at different times in different regions. Comparing the data with results obtained from the earliest dated AMH sites in Europe, associated with the Uluzzian technocomplex, allows us to quantify the temporal overlap between the two human groups. The results reveal a significant overlap of 2,600-5,400 years (at 95.4% probability). This has important implications for models seeking to explain the cultural, technological and biological elements involved in the replacement of Neanderthals by AMHs. A mosaic of populations in Europe during the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic transition suggests that there was ample time for the transmission of cultural and symbolic behaviours, as well as possible genetic exchanges, between the two groups.

  10. A New Time-varying Concept of Risk in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarhadi, Ali; Ausín, María Concepción; Wiper, Michael P.

    2016-10-01

    In a changing climate arising from anthropogenic global warming, the nature of extreme climatic events is changing over time. Existing analytical stationary-based risk methods, however, assume multi-dimensional extreme climate phenomena will not significantly vary over time. To strengthen the reliability of infrastructure designs and the management of water systems in the changing environment, multidimensional stationary risk studies should be replaced with a new adaptive perspective. The results of a comparison indicate that current multi-dimensional stationary risk frameworks are no longer applicable to projecting the changing behaviour of multi-dimensional extreme climate processes. Using static stationary-based multivariate risk methods may lead to undesirable consequences in designing water system infrastructures. The static stationary concept should be replaced with a flexible multi-dimensional time-varying risk framework. The present study introduces a new multi-dimensional time-varying risk concept to be incorporated in updating infrastructure design strategies under changing environments arising from human-induced climate change. The proposed generalized time-varying risk concept can be applied for all stochastic multi-dimensional systems that are under the influence of changing environments.

  11. Climatic warming above the Arctic Circle: are there trends in timing and length of the thermal growing season in Murmansk Region (Russia) between 1951 and 2012?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blinova, Ilona; Chmielewski, Frank-Michael

    2015-06-01

    Anomalies in the timing of the thermal growing season have become obvious in the NE part of Fennoscandia since 2000. They are in accordance with climatic changes reported for Europe and Fennoscandia. The actual length of the growing season reached 120 days on average, onset on 30 May and ending on 27 September (1981-2010). Shifts in the timing of the growing season and its mean prolongation by 18.5 days/62a are demonstrated for Murmansk Region (1951-2012). In this period, the onset of the growing season advanced by 7.1 days/62a, while the end was extended by 11.4 days/62a. The delay in the end of the growing season is similar to the entire Fennoscandian pattern but it has not been detected in the rest of Europe. The regional pattern of climatic regimes in Murmansk Region remained stable in comparison with earlier climatic maps (1971). However, the actual shifts in the timing of the growing season were more pronounced in colder (oceanic and mountainous) parts. Recent climatic trends could influence the retreat of the tundra zone and changes in the forest line. Losses of tundra biodiversity and enrichment of the northern taiga by southern species could be expected from present climatic trends.

  12. Long-term patterns in estuarine fish growth across two climatically divergent regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doubleday, Zoë A; Izzo, Christopher; Haddy, James A; Lyle, Jeremy M; Ye, Qifeng; Gillanders, Bronwyn M

    2015-12-01

    Long-term ecological datasets are vital for investigating how species respond to changes in their environment, yet there is a critical lack of such datasets from aquatic systems. We developed otolith growth 'chronologies' to reconstruct the growth history of a temperate estuarine fish species, black bream (Acanthopagrus butcheri). Chronologies represented two regions in south-east Australia: South Australia, characterised by a relatively warm, dry climate, and Tasmania, characterised by a relatively cool, wet climate. Using a mixed modelling approach, we related inter-annual growth variation to air temperature, rainfall, freshwater inflow (South Australia only), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation events. Otolith chronologies provided a continuous record of growth over a 13- and 21-year period for fish from South Australia and Tasmania, respectively. Even though fish from Tasmania were sourced across multiple estuaries, they showed higher levels of growth synchronicity across years, and greater year-to-year growth variation, than fish from South Australia, which were sourced from a single, large estuary. Growth in Tasmanian fish declined markedly over the time period studied and was negatively correlated to temperature. In contrast, growth in South Australian fish was positively correlated to both temperature and rainfall. The stark contrast between the two regions suggests that Tasmanian black bream populations are more responsive to regional scale environmental variation and may be more vulnerable to global warming. This study highlights the importance of examining species response to climate change at the intra-specific level and further validates the emerging use of growth chronologies for generating long-term ecological data in aquatic systems.

  13. Homelessness, mental illness, and criminal activity: examining patterns over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Sean N; Shinn, Marybeth; Shrout, Patrick; Tsemberis, Sam

    2008-12-01

    This study examined whether street homelessness, sheltered homelessness, and the severity of psychological symptoms predicted non-violent and violent crime among 207 mentally ill participants who were homeless at baseline. Participants were interviewed at 9 time points over 4 years. Hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) was used to examine whether changes in homelessness status and symptom severity predicted changes in criminal activity over time. Results indicated that homelessness both on the streets and in shelters and psychological symptom severity predicted increases in non-violent crime. Sheltered homelessness and symptom severity predicted increases in violent crime, although street homelessness did not. A separate mediational analysis with 181 participants showed that the relationship between diagnosis of a psychotic disorder and both non-violent and violent criminal activity was partially mediated through the severity of psychotic symptoms. Implications for research and intervention are discussed.

  14. Sexual disparity in activity patterns and time budgets of angulate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Behavioural frequencies and time budgets for male and female Chersina angulata were recorded in spring, September 2004. The daily activity of the population was 10.51 ± 0.42 h (mean ± CI), but individual males and females were in the open for 2.57 ± 1.12 h and 1.58 ± 1.44 h, respectively. Both sexes spent nearly 3.5 h ...

  15. Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species–study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians. PMID:27703684

  16. Formal Verification of User-Level Real-Time Property Patterns

    OpenAIRE

    Ge , Ning; Pantel , Marc; Dal Zilio , Silvano

    2017-01-01

    International audience; To ease the expression of real-time requirements, Dwyer, and then Konrad, studied a large collection of existing systems in order to identify a set of real-time property patterns covering most of the useful use cases. The goal was to provide a set of reusable patterns that system designers can instantiate to express requirements instead of using complex temporal logic formulas. A limitation of this approach is that the choice of patterns is more oriented towards expres...

  17. Influence of time and pressure of forming a pattern on mechanical properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Pacyniak

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the technology of forming patterns on a research station equipped with an autoclave A-600 of Polish company GROM is presented. This study was conducted to determine the influence of pressure and time of forming a pattern on the bending strength. Analysis of the results confirmed that bending strength increases with increasing the pressure. The time of forming a pattern has a similar effect.

  18. Ethical Climate, Organizational Commitment, and Job Satisfaction of Full-Time Faculty Members

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Heather Louise

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this quantitative study was to better understand the relationship of perceived ethical climate on the organizational commitment and job satisfaction of full-time faculty members in institutions of higher education. Full-time faculty members are the forefront employees of any educational institution, and they have a direct impact on…

  19. Geographic variation of melanisation patterns in a hornet species: genetic differences, climatic pressures or aposematic constraints?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrien Perrard

    Full Text Available Coloration of stinging insects is often based on contrasted patterns of light and black pigmentations as a warning signal to predators. However, in many social wasp species, geographic variation drastically modifies this signal through melanic polymorphism potentially driven by different selective pressures. To date, surprisingly little is known about the geographic variation of coloration of social wasps in relation to aposematism and melanism and to genetic and developmental constraints. The main objectives of this study are to improve the description of the colour variation within a social wasp species and to determine which factors are driving this variation. Therefore, we explored the evolutionary history of a polymorphic hornet, Vespa velutina Lepeletier, 1836, using mitochondrial and microsatellite markers, and we analysed its melanic variation using a colour space based on a description of body parts coloration. We found two main lineages within the species and confirmed the previous synonymy of V. auraria Smith, 1852, under V. velutina, differing only by the coloration. We also found that the melanic variation of most body parts was positively correlated, with some segments forming potential colour modules. Finally, we showed that the variation of coloration between populations was not related to their molecular, geographic or climatic differences. Our observations suggest that the coloration patterns of hornets and their geographic variations are determined by genes with an influence of developmental constraints. Our results also highlight that Vespa velutina populations have experienced several convergent evolutions of the coloration, more likely influenced by constraints on aposematism and Müllerian mimicry than by abiotic pressures on melanism.

  20. Future flooding impacts on transportation infrastructure and traffic patterns resulting from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-01

    "This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the : Portland metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change scenarios, a hydrologic model, stream channel ...

  1. Experience real-time climate change: Environmental education at Jamtal glacier.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andrea; Seiser, Bernd; Hartl, Lea; Bendler, Gebhard

    2016-04-01

    Kids hear about climate change in everyday news, but, unlike grown-ups, they find it much harder to imagine changes over decades, i.e. much longer than their own life span. So how to teach them the issues of climate change? Jamtalferner is an Alpine glacier with an ongoing mass balance monitoring programme started in 1988/89. Surveys of glacier length changes by the Austrian Alpine Club date back even longer, so that the glacier retreat after the Little Ice Age is well documented. As the glacier is easy to access, at just one hour's easy walk from the mountain hut, Jamtalferner was selected to compile materials on climate change for the use in schools and for preparing excursions for a hands-on confrontation with climate change and to give an impression of decadal changes. The materials will be available at www.umweltbildung-jamtal.info and include time series of photographs, maps, tables, background information and exercises.

  2. Individualistic and time-varying tree-ring growth to climate sensitivity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Carrer

    Full Text Available The development of dendrochronological time series in order to analyze climate-growth relationships usually involves first a rigorous selection of trees and then the computation of the mean tree-growth measurement series. This study suggests a change in the perspective, passing from an analysis of climate-growth relationships that typically focuses on the mean response of a species to investigating the whole range of individual responses among sample trees. Results highlight that this new approach, tested on a larch and stone pine tree-ring dataset, outperforms, in terms of information obtained, the classical one, with significant improvements regarding the strength, distribution and time-variability of the individual tree-ring growth response to climate. Moreover, a significant change over time of the tree sensitivity to climatic variability has been detected. Accordingly, the best-responder trees at any one time may not always have been the best-responders and may not continue to be so. With minor adjustments to current dendroecological protocol and adopting an individualistic approach, we can improve the quality and reliability of the ecological inferences derived from the climate-growth relationships.

  3. Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald Madden, Eve; Runge, Michael C.; Possingham, Hugh P.; Martin, Tara G.

    2011-01-01

    Managed relocation is a controversial climate-adaptation strategy to combat negative climate change impacts on biodiversity. While the scientific community debates the merits of managed relocation1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12, species are already being moved to new areas predicted to be more suitable under climate change13,14. To inform these moves, we construct a quantitative decision framework to evaluate the timing of relocation in the face of climate change. We find that the optimal timing depends on many factors, including the size of the population, the demographic costs of translocation and the expected carrying capacities over time in the source and destination habitats. In some settings, such as when a small population would benefit from time to grow before risking translocation losses, haste is ill advised. We also find that active adaptive management15,16 is valuable when the effect of climate change on source habitat is uncertain, and leads to delayed movement.

  4. Changes in time of sowing, flowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Jørgen E; Børgesen, Christen Duus; Elsgaard, Lars

    2012-01-01

    The phenological development of cereal crops from emergence through flowering to maturity is largely controlled by temperature, but also affected by day length and potential physiological stresses. Responses may vary between species and varieties. Climate change will affect the timing of cereal...... crop development, but exact changes will also depend on changes in varieties as affected by plant breeding and variety choices. This study aimed to assess changes in timing of major phenological stages of cereal crops in Northern and Central Europe under climate change. Records on dates of sowing...... increased with increasing mean annual temperature of the location, indicating that varieties are well adapted to given conditions. The responses of wheat and oats were largest for the period from flowering to maturity. Changes in timing of cereal phenology by 2040 were assessed for two climate model...

  5. An Investigation of Geography and Climate Induced Distresses Patterns on Airfield Pavements at US Air Force Installations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren K. Sahagun

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated climate induced distresses patterns on airfield pavements at US Air Force installations. A literature review and surveys of Pavement Condition Index indicated that the predominant factor contributing to the development of pavement distress was climate. Results suggested that, within each type of pavement distress, a geographic pattern exists which is strongly correlated to conventional US climate zones. The US Air Force Roll-Up Database, housing over 50,000 records of pavement distress data, was distilled using a process designed to combine similar distresses while accounting for age and size of samples. The process reduced the data to a format that could be used to perform krig analysis and to develop pavement behavior models for runways built with asphalt cement (AC and Portland cement concrete (PCC. Regression and krig analyses were conducted for each distress type to understand distress behavior among climate zones. Combined regression and krig analyses provided insight into the overall pavement behavior for AC and PCC runways and illustrated which climate zone was more susceptible to specific pavement distresses. Distress behavior tends to be more severe in the eastern US for AC and in the western US for PCC runway pavements, respectively.

  6. Evaluation of the climate change effects to the precipitation patterns in the selected Bosnia and Herzegovina cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vučijak Branko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change effects are most often presented with ongoing and expected temperature increase and sea level rise, but also stressed is the shift in rainfall patterns, often difficult to distinguish because there is much natural variability in precipitation. Statistical process control presents application of statistical methods and procedures for monitoring and control of the selected process. It aims to evaluate two potential sources of a process variation: natural (common and assignable (special causes. Statistical process control was recently used to evaluate climate change/variation, using previous referential period as a benchmark for addressing the present variations (e. g. in temperature or precipitation as being triggered by natural or special causes. This means that either variation statistically should have been expected or the natural processes “capability” changed and variations are higher than one could expect. This paper analytically compares specific precipitation pattern changes in the three cities of Bosnia and Herzegovina with different annual participation. The comparison is based on the assessment of statistical behaviour of the precipitation data during the periods of 1961-1990 and after 1990. Such comparison allows preliminary conclusions on the studied geographical distribution of specific climate change/variation impacts. The presented results show that climate variations effect the precipitation patterns change, but do not confirm that they are as high as they could not be statistically expected, based on previous precipitation data.

  7. Using observed climate-landscape-vegetation patterns across a regional gradient to predict potential response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, V. B.; Cardenas, B.; David, C. H.

    2010-12-01

    We quantify relationships between climate and drainage density (D) and vegetation cover (V) across a regionally pronounced climate gradient where there is more or less uniform relief and geology. The D is calculated using the National Hydrography Dataset Plus for the watersheds within the Texas Gulf Basin, the study region. 30-yr average climate data (precipitation P, evaporation E and runoff R=P-E) and V was obtained from the North American Regional Reanalysis. The D, V and R for each watershed were analyzed and we found that the D(R) relationship closely follows the comprehensive physically-based model by Moglen, Eltahir and Bras (MEB). Moreover, the D(R) relationship is fit well by a more parsimonious saturation-growth model which is a special case of the MEB model. V(P) is adequately described by a linear model which is consistent whether it is derived via a pixel-by-pixel basis or on a per watershed basis. Using the determined D(R) and V(P) models, we predict what the equilibrium V and D should be for each watershed under an A2 emissions scenario. This is done by considering R and P calculated from results of the Hadley Model and the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM3). We quantify how much browner or greener each watershed will become and the level of disequilibrium in the drainage network.

  8. Paleobiogeography of scleractinian reef corals: Changing patterns during the Oligocene-Miocene climatic transition in the Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrin, Christine; Bosellini, Francesca R.

    2012-02-01

    geographically-restricted genera with a moderate to short stratigraphical range and a few long-ranging widespread genera. A major consequence of this structure is that the extinction pattern has proceeded through the preferential extinction of rare-occurrence genera through time. The potential rapid long-distance dispersal of most coral larvae compared to the size of the Oligocene-Miocene Mediterranean, explains why no biogeographical subprovinces can be distinguished for the z-coral fauna. On a local scale, ecological processes tend to sort coral taxa by limiting z-coral development to geographically restricted and discontinuous areas. This accounts for the large amount of geographically-restricted taxa forming the Mediterranean coral fauna. The interaction of plate-tectonics, Alpine orogenesis and climate at local to subregional scales exerts strong controls over the spatio-temporal distribution of z-coral assemblages within the circum-Mediterranean realm. In particular, we suggest that the richness and composition of the Eastern Atlantic coral fauna are indirectly related to the opening and closure of the eastern seaway connection with the Indian Ocean, which controlled the E-W circulation of surface waters and hence the westwards dispersal of pelagic larvae. At the scale of the whole region, the gradual regional climatic change produced by the northwards migration of the entire area, superimposed on the global cooling, appears in large part responsible for the extinction pattern of z-corals through time in the Mediterranean biogeographical Province.

  9. Continental scale analysis of bird migration timing: influences of climate and life history traits-a generalized mixture model clustering and discriminant approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Lynda E; Beaumont, Linda J; Hudson, Irene L

    2014-08-01

    There is substantial evidence of climate-related shifts to the timing of avian migration. Although spring arrival has generally advanced, variable species responses and geographical biases in data collection make it difficult to generalise patterns. We advance previous studies by using novel multivariate statistical techniques to explore complex relationships between phenological trends, climate indices and species traits. Using 145 datasets for 52 bird species, we assess trends in first arrival date (FAD), last departure date (LDD) and timing of peak abundance at multiple Australian locations. Strong seasonal patterns were found, i.e. spring phenological events were more likely to significantly advance, while significant advances and delays occurred in other seasons. However, across all significant trends, the magnitude of delays exceeded that of advances, particularly for FAD (+22.3 and -9.6 days/decade, respectively). Geographic variations were found, with greater advances in FAD and LDD, in south-eastern Australia than in the north and west. We identified four species clusters that differed with respect to species traits and climate drivers. Species within bird clusters responded in similar ways to local climate variables, particularly the number of raindays and rainfall. The strength of phenological trends was more strongly related to local climate variables than to broad-scale drivers (Southern Oscillation Index), highlighting the importance of precipitation as a driver of movement in Australian birds.

  10. The time aspect of bioenergy. Climate impacts of bioenergy due to differences in carbon uptake rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zetterberg, Lars [IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Stockholm (Sweden); Chen, Deliang [Dept. of Earth Sciences, Univ. of Gothenburg, Gothenburg (Sweden)

    2011-07-01

    This paper investigates the climate impacts from bioenergy due to how they influence carbon stocks over time and more specifically how fast combustion related carbon emissions are compensated by uptake of atmospheric carbon. A set of fuel types representing different uptake rates are investigated, namely willow, branches and tops, stumps and coal. Net emissions are defined as emissions from utilizing the fuel minus emissions from a reference case of no utilisation. In the case of forest residues, the compensating 'uptake' is avoided emissions from the reference case of leaving the residues to decompose on the ground. Climate impacts are estimated using the measures radiative forcing and global average surface temperature, which have been calculated by an energy balance climate model. We conclude that there is a climate impact from using bioenergy due to how fast the emission pulse is compensated by uptake of atmospheric carbon (or avoided emissions). Biofuels with slower uptake rates have a stronger climate impact than fuels with a faster uptake rate, assuming all other parameters equal. The time perspective over which the analysis is done is crucial for the climate impact of biofuels. If only biogenic fluxes are considered, our results show that over a 100 year perspective branches and tops are better for climate mitigation than stumps which in turn are better than coal. Over a 20 year time perspective this conclusion holds, but the differences between these fuels are relatively smaller. Establishing willow on earlier crop land may reduce atmospheric carbon, provided new land is available. However, these results are inconclusive since we haven't considered the effects, if needed, of producing the traditional agricultural crops elsewhere. The analysis is not a life cycle assessment of different fuels and does therefore not consider the use of fossil fuels for logging, transportation and refining, other greenhouse gases than carbon or energy

  11. Canadian Boreal Forest Greening and Browning Trends: An Analysis of Biogeographic Patterns and the Relative Roles of Disturbance versus Climate Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulla-menashe, D. J.; Woodcock, C. E.; Friedl, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies have used satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) to explore geographic patterns in boreal forest greening and browning. A number of these studies indicate that boreal forests are experiencing widespread browning, and have suggested that these patterns reflect decreases in forest productivity induced by climate change. A key limitation of these studies, however, is their reliance on AVHRR data, which provides imagery with very coarse spatial resolution and lower radiometric quality relative to other available remote sensing time series. Here we use NDVI time series from Landsat, which has much higher radiometric quality and spatial resolution than AVHRR, to characterize spatial patterns in greening and browning across Canada's boreal forest and to explore the drivers behind the observed trends. Our results show that the majority of NDVI changes in Canada's boreal forest reflect disturbance-recovery dynamics not climate change impacts, that greening and browning trends outside of disturbed forests are consistent with expected ecological responses to regional changes in climate, and that observed NDVI changes are geographically limited and relatively small in magnitude. Consistent with biogeographic theory, greening and browning unrelated to disturbance tended to be located in ecotones near boundaries of the boreal forest bioclimatic envelope. We observe greening to be most prevalent in Eastern Canada, which is more humid, and browning to be most prevalent in Western Canada, where there is more moisture stress. We conclude that continued long-term climate change has the potential to significantly alter the character and function of Canada's boreal forest, but recent changes have been modest and near-term impacts are likely to be focused in or near ecotones. As part of a NASA funded project supporting the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABo

  12. Multi-scale anomaly detection algorithm based on infrequent pattern of time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiao-Yun; Zhan, Yan-Yan

    2008-04-01

    In this paper, we propose two anomaly detection algorithms PAV and MPAV on time series. The first basic idea of this paper defines that the anomaly pattern is the most infrequent time series pattern, which is the lowest support pattern. The second basic idea of this paper is that PAV detects directly anomalies in the original time series, and MPAV algorithm extraction anomaly in the wavelet approximation coefficient of the time series. For complexity analyses, as the wavelet transform have the functions to compress data, filter noise, and maintain the basic form of time series, the MPAV algorithm, while maintaining the accuracy of the algorithm improves the efficiency. As PAV and MPAV algorithms are simple and easy to realize without training, this proposed multi-scale anomaly detection algorithm based on infrequent pattern of time series can therefore be proved to be very useful for computer science applications.

  13. R and D on a New Technology of Micro-pattern Gaseous Detectors Fast Timing Micro-pattern Detector

    CERN Document Server

    Salva Diblen, Sinem

    2016-01-01

    After the upgrades of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) planned for the second and the third Long Shutdown (LS), the LHC luminosity will approach very high values. Such conditions will affect the performance of the CMS muon system, especially in the very forward region, due to the harsh expected background environment and high pile-up conditions. The CMS collaboration considers upgrading the muon forward region to take advantage of the pixel tracking coverage extension a new detector, ME0 station, possibly behind the new forward calorimeter. New resistive micro-pattern gaseous detectors that are able to handle the very demanding spatial, time resolution and rate capability, are being considered. In this contribution we introduce a new type of MPGD technology the Fast Timing Micro-pattern (FTM) detector, utilizing a fully resistive WELL structure. It consists of a stack of several coupled layers where drift and WELL multiplication stages alternate in the structure, yielding a significant improvement in timing p...

  14. The public's belief in climate change and its human cause are increasing over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milfont, Taciano L; Wilson, Marc S; Sibley, Chris G

    2017-01-01

    Polls examining public opinion on the subject of climate change are now commonplace, and one-off public opinion polls provide a snapshot of citizen's opinions that can inform policy and communication strategies. However, cross-sectional polls do not track opinions over time, thus making it impossible to ascertain whether key climate change beliefs held by the same group of individuals are changing or not. Here we examine the extent to which individual's level of agreement with two key beliefs ("climate change is real" and "climate change is caused by humans") remain stable or increase/decrease over a six-year period in New Zealand using latent growth curve modelling (n = 10,436). Data were drawn from the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study, a probabilistic national panel study, and indicated that levels of agreement to both beliefs have steadily increased over the 2009-2015 period. Given that climate change beliefs and concerns are key predictors of climate change action, our findings suggest that a combination of targeted endeavors, as well as serendipitous events, may successfully convey the emergency of the issue.

  15. Impact of an observational time window on coupled data assimilation: simulation with a simple climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhao

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate signals are the results of interactions of multiple timescale media such as the atmosphere and ocean in the coupled earth system. Coupled data assimilation (CDA pursues balanced and coherent climate analysis and prediction initialization by incorporating observations from multiple media into a coupled model. In practice, an observational time window (OTW is usually used to collect measured data for an assimilation cycle to increase observational samples that are sequentially assimilated with their original error scales. Given different timescales of characteristic variability in different media, what are the optimal OTWs for the coupled media so that climate signals can be most accurately recovered by CDA? With a simple coupled model that simulates typical scale interactions in the climate system and twin CDA experiments, we address this issue here. Results show that in each coupled medium, an optimal OTW can provide maximal observational information that best fits the characteristic variability of the medium during the data blending process. Maintaining correct scale interactions, the resulting CDA improves the analysis of climate signals greatly. These simple model results provide a guideline for when the real observations are assimilated into a coupled general circulation model for improving climate analysis and prediction initialization by accurately recovering important characteristic variability such as sub-diurnal in the atmosphere and diurnal in the ocean.

  16. A 350 ka record of climate change from Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic: refining the pattern of climate modes by means of cluster analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Frank

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Rock magnetic, biochemical and inorganic records of the sediment cores PG1351 and Lz1024 from Lake El'gygytgyn, Chukotka peninsula, Far East Russian Arctic, were subject to a hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis in order to refine and extend the pattern of climate modes as defined by Melles et al. (2007. Cluster analysis of the data obtained from both cores yielded similar results, differentiating clearly between the four climate modes warm, peak warm, cold and dry, and cold and moist. In addition, two transitional phases were identified, representing the early stages of a cold phase and slightly colder conditions during a warm phase. The statistical approach can thus be used to resolve gradual changes in the sedimentary units as an indicator of available oxygen in the hypolimnion in greater detail. Based upon cluster analyses on core Lz1024, the published succession of climate modes in core PG1351, covering the last 250 ka, was modified and extended back to 350 ka. Comparison to the marine oxygen isotope (δ18O stack LR04 (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005 and the summer insolation at 67.5° N, with the extended Lake El'gygytgyn parameter records of magnetic susceptibility (κLF, total organic carbon content (TOC and the chemical index of alteration (CIA; Minyuk et al., 2007, revealed that all stages back to marine isotope stage (MIS 10 and most of the substages are clearly reflected in the pattern derived from the cluster analysis.

  17. Climate variability, weather and enteric disease incidence in New Zealand: time series analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aparna Lal

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Evaluating the influence of climate variability on enteric disease incidence may improve our ability to predict how climate change may affect these diseases. OBJECTIVES: To examine the associations between regional climate variability and enteric disease incidence in New Zealand. METHODS: Associations between monthly climate and enteric diseases (campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis were investigated using Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA models. RESULTS: No climatic factors were significantly associated with campylobacteriosis and giardiasis, with similar predictive power for univariate and multivariate models. Cryptosporidiosis was positively associated with average temperature of the previous month (β =  0.130, SE =  0.060, p <0.01 and inversely related to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI two months previously (β =  -0.008, SE =  0.004, p <0.05. By contrast, salmonellosis was positively associated with temperature (β  = 0.110, SE = 0.020, p<0.001 of the current month and SOI of the current (β  = 0.005, SE = 0.002, p<0.050 and previous month (β  = 0.005, SE = 0.002, p<0.05. Forecasting accuracy of the multivariate models for cryptosporidiosis and salmonellosis were significantly higher. CONCLUSIONS: Although spatial heterogeneity in the observed patterns could not be assessed, these results suggest that temporally lagged relationships between climate variables and national communicable disease incidence data can contribute to disease prediction models and early warning systems.

  18. Turing patterns and long-time behavior in a three-species food-chain model

    KAUST Repository

    Parshad, Rana D.

    2014-08-01

    We consider a spatially explicit three-species food chain model, describing generalist top predator-specialist middle predator-prey dynamics. We investigate the long-time dynamics of the model and show the existence of a finite dimensional global attractor in the product space, L2(Ω). We perform linear stability analysis and show that the model exhibits the phenomenon of Turing instability, as well as diffusion induced chaos. Various Turing patterns such as stripe patterns, mesh patterns, spot patterns, labyrinth patterns and weaving patterns are obtained, via numerical simulations in 1d as well as in 2d. The Turing and non-Turing space, in terms of model parameters, is also explored. Finally, we use methods from nonlinear time series analysis to reconstruct a low dimensional chaotic attractor of the model, and estimate its fractal dimension. This provides a lower bound, for the fractal dimension of the attractor, of the spatially explicit model. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.

  19. Patterns of bird migration phenology in South Africa suggest northern hemisphere climate as the most consistent driver of change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bussière, Elsa M S; Underhill, Les G; Altwegg, Res

    2015-06-01

    Current knowledge of phenological shifts in Palearctic bird migration is largely based on data collected on migrants at their breeding grounds; little is known about the phenology of these birds at their nonbreeding grounds, and even less about that of intra-African migrants. Because climate change patterns are not uniform across the globe, we can expect regional disparities in bird phenological responses. It is also likely that they vary across species, as species show differences in the strength of affinities they have with particular habitats and environments. Here, we examine the arrival and departure of nine Palearctic and seven intra-African migratory species in the central Highveld of South Africa, where the former spend their nonbreeding season and the latter their breeding season. Using novel analytical methods based on bird atlas data, we show phenological shifts in migration of five species - red-backed shrike, spotted flycatcher, common sandpiper, white-winged tern (Palearctic migrants), and diederik cuckoo (intra-African migrant) - between two atlas periods: 1987-1991 and 2007-2012. During this time period, Palearctic migrants advanced their departure from their South African nonbreeding grounds. This trend was mainly driven by waterbirds. No consistent changes were observed for intra-African migrants. Our results suggest that the most consistent drivers of migration phenological shifts act in the northern hemisphere, probably at the breeding grounds. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Association between screen time and dietary patterns and overweight/obesity among adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Gabriela Matias de PINHO

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective The association between screen time and dietary patterns and overweight/obesity among adolescents was analysed in this study. Methods In this cross-sectional study, 963 Brazilian adolescents, aged between 11 and 14 years were evaluated. Body mass index was used to assess overweight/obesity. Dietary patterns and screen time were assessed using qualitative questionnaires. Principal component analysis was used to obtain dietary patterns. Confounder variables were: type of school (public or private, sexual maturation, mother’s weight and mother’s education. The Chi-square test was used for the crude analysis; for the adjusted analysis was used Poisson regression with sample weighting. Results Overweight/obesity prevalence was 29.8% and statistically higher among boys (34.7%. Higher screen time prevalence was 39.1%. The dietary patterns obtained were: obesogenic; coffee and dairy products; traditional Brazilian meal; fruit and vegetables; bread and chocolate milk. The dietary pattern that more closely represented student food consumption was the obesogenic pattern. Screen time was not significantly associated with overweight/obesity. The obesogenic pattern (in both sexes, the coffee and dairy products pattern, and the bread and chocolate milk pattern (only in girls, were inversely associated with overweight/obesity. In this study, dietary patterns influenced overweight/obesity, although in some cases, in an inverse way from what expected. Conclusion A high prevalence of overweight/obesity and a high proportion of screen time activities among the adolescents were observed. Our results indicate a high consumption of unhealthy dietary pattern among adolescents.

  1. North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity over the last 2000 years: Patterns, Consequences and Potential Climatic Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly, J. P.; Lane, P.; Hawkes, A.; van Hengstum, P. J.; Ranasinghe, P. N.; Toomey, M.; MacDonald, D.

    2011-12-01

    1300 years ago. A reconstruction of intense hurricane landfalls from the Gulf coast documents some similar patterns that likely point to large scale climate forcing; however, some significant differences are evident. For example, the Gulf frequently experienced intense hurricanes during the 13th and 14th centuries, but a subsequent decline in activity has persisted through the historic period. This antiphasing of intense hurricane activity between the East and Gulf coasts may point to basin-wide changes in hurricane tracks, but regional controls on the frequency of intense hurricanes (e.g., loop current penetration in the Gulf of Mexico) may also have driven spatial variability in Atlantic paleohurricane records.

  2. Climatic potential for passive cooling of buildings by night-time ventilation in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Artmann, Nikolai; Manz, H.; Heiselberg, Per

    2006-01-01

    , without considering any building-specific parameters. An approach for calculating degree-hours based on a variable building temperature - within a standardized range of thermal comfort - is presented and applied to climatic data of 259 stations all over Europe. The results show a high potential for night......-time ventilation alone might not be sufficient to guarantee thermal comfort....

  3. Timing, cause and consequences of mid-Holocene climate transition in the Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Saraswat, R.; Naik, Dinesh K.; Nigam, R.; Gaur, A.S.

    the timing, consequences and possible causes of the mid-Holocene climate transition (MHCT). A distinct shift in evaporation-precipitation (E-P) is observed at 6.4 ka, accompanied by a net cooling of SST. The shift in SST and E-P is synchronous with a change...

  4. How Are Fishing Patterns and Fishing Communities Responding to Climate Change? A Test Case from the Northwest Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, T.; Fuller, E.; Coleman, K.; Provost, M.; Pinsky, M. L.; St Martin, K.

    2016-02-01

    We know climate is changing and fish are moving in response to those changes. But we understand less about how harvesters are responding to these changes in fish distribution and the ramifications of those changes for fishing communities. Ecological and evolutionary theory suggests that organisms must move, adapt, or die in response to environmental changes, and a related frame may be relevant for human harvesters in the face of climate change. Furthermore, research suggests that there may be a portfolio effect: a wider diversity of catch may buffer harvesters from some effects of climate change. To get at these questions, we explored changes in fishing patterns among commercial fishing communities in the northeast US from 1997-2014 using NOAA-collected logbook data. We found that communities using more mobile gear (large trawl vessels) demonstrated a greater range of latitudinal shift than communities using any other gear. Latitudinal shift was also inversely related to species diversity of catch and port latitude in those communities: southern communities that caught few species shifted dramatically northward, and northern communities that caught many species did not demonstrate marked latitudinal shifts. Those communities that demonstrated larger latitudinal shifts also demonstrated smaller changes in catch composition than their more stationary counterparts. We also found that vessels are indeed leaving many, but not all, fisheries in this region. These results suggest that harvesters are moving, adapting, and leaving fisheries, and that there does appear to be a portfolio effect, with catch diversity mediating some of these responses. While these changes in fishing patterns cannot all be directly attributed to climate change per se, marine fishes in this region are shifting north rapidly, as is expected under climate change. This study provides a valuable test case for exploring the potential ramifications of climate change on coastal socio-ecological systems.

  5. Non-stationary analysis of the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation over Canada and their relations to large-scale climate patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew

    2017-05-01

    In recent years, because the frequency and severity of floods have increased across Canada, it is important to understand the characteristics of Canadian heavy precipitation. Long-term precipitation data of 463 gauging stations of Canada were analyzed using non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution (GEV), Poisson distribution and generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. Time-varying covariates that represent large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NP) were incorporated to parameters of GEV, Poisson and GP distributions. Results show that GEV distributions tend to under-estimate annual maximum daily precipitation (AMP) of western and eastern coastal regions of Canada, compared to GP distributions. Poisson regressions show that temporal clusters of heavy precipitation events in Canada are related to large-scale climate patterns. By modeling AMP time series with non-stationary GEV and heavy precipitation with non-stationary GP distributions, it is evident that AMP and heavy precipitation of Canada show strong non-stationarities (abrupt and slowly varying changes) likely because of the influence of large-scale climate patterns. AMP in southwestern coastal regions, southern Canadian Prairies and the Great Lakes tend to be higher in El Niño than in La Niña years, while AMP of other regions of Canada tends to be lower in El Niño than in La Niña years. The influence of ENSO on heavy precipitation was spatially consistent but stronger than on AMP. The effect of PDO, NAO and NP on extreme precipitation is also statistically significant at some stations across Canada.

  6. The influence of large-scale climatic patterns on precipitation, temperature, and discharge in Czech river basins

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šípek, Václav

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 61, č. 4 (2013), s. 278-285 ISSN 0042-790X R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300600901 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : macro-scale climatic patterns * cidlina river * Blanice river * hydrometeorology Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 1.231, year: 2013 http://147.213.145.2/vc/vc1.asp

  7. Hydro-climate variability and teleconnection patterns during the last millennium in NW Africa, inferred from speleothem records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ait Brahim, Y.; Cheng, H.; Sifeddine, A.; Wassenburg, J. A.; Khodri, M.; Cruz, F. W., Sr.

    2017-12-01

    In this study, we present new paleoclimate records from two well dated Moroccan speleothems. Our stalagmites were sampled from Ifoulki cave in the Western High Atlas Mountains in SW Morocco and Chaara cave in the Eastern Middle Atlas Mountains in NE Morocco. The new paleo-records cover the last 1000 years with a high resolution and reveal substantial swings of dry and humid periods with decadal to multidecadal frequencies. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) is characterized by generally dry conditions, while wetter conditions are recorded during the Little Ice Age (LIA) and a trend towards dry conditions during the 20th century. These observations are consistent with regional climate signals, providing new insights on common climate controls and teleconnection patterns in NW Africa. We emphasize that the hydro-climate conditions in Morocco remained under the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). At longer timescales, we hypothesize that the generally warmer MCA and colder LIA influenced the regional climate in NW Africa through interactions with local mechanisms, such as the Sahara Low, which weakened and strengthened the mean moisture inflow from the Atlantic Ocean during the MCA and LIA respectively.

  8. Social identity patterns in culturally diverse organizations : The role of diversity climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofhuis, Joep; Van Der Zee, Karen I.; Otten, Sabine

    Many of the problems associated with cultural diversity in organizations stem from individuals' tendencies to categorize their social environment into "us" and "them." We present the results of a field study (N=1111) showing that diversity climate-an organizational climate characterized by openness

  9. Extreme precipitation and temperature responses to circulation patterns in current climate: statistical approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Photiadou, C.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is likely to influence the frequency of extreme extremes - temperature, precipitation and hydrological extremes, which implies increasing risks for flood and drought events in Europe. In current climate, European countries were often not sufficiently prepared to deal with the great

  10. Shading screens for the improvement of the night time climate of unheated greenhouses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. I. Montero

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to study the effect of shading screens, normally used during the day for cooling purposes, on the night-time climate of unheated greenhouses. For this purpose, first a number of experimental measurements were taken during cold nights to characterise the greenhouse climate both with and without an aluminised external screen. Secondly a Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD model of greenhouse was developed. After validation of the model by comparison with experimental data, the model was used to simulate the greenhouse climate for different sky conditions ranging from cloudless to overcast nights. Simulations were performed for a greenhouse with internal and external shading screens and for the same greenhouse without screens. Experimental results showed the positive effect of an external shading screen, whose use increased night-time temperature and reduced the risk of thermal inversion. Its effect was much stronger under clear sky conditions. The CFD model supported this conclusion and provided a detailed explanation of the temperature behaviour of all the greenhouse types considered. CFD simulations proved that an aluminised screen placed inside the greenhouse at gutter height gave the greatest thermal increase. Therefore, external or internal screens can help to increase the sustainability of greenhouse production in areas with mild winter climates by enhancing the use of solar energy stored in the greenhouse soil during the previous day and released at night-time.

  11. Potential links between continental rifting, CO2 degassing and climate change through time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brune, Sascha; Williams, Simon E.; Müller, R. Dietmar

    2017-12-01

    The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is a key influence on Earth's climate. Today, significant quantities of CO2 are emitted at continental rifts, suggesting that the spatial and temporal extent of rift systems may have influenced deep carbon fluxes and thus climate change throughout geological time. Here we test this hypothesis by conducting a worldwide census of continental rift lengths over the last 200 million years. We estimate tectonic CO2 release rates through time and show that along the extensive Mesozoic and Cenozoic rift systems, rift-related CO2 degassing rates reached more than 300% of present-day values. Using a numerical carbon cycle model, we find that two prominent periods of enhanced rifting 160 to 100 million years ago and after 55 million years ago coincided with greenhouse climate episodes, during which atmospheric CO2 concentrations were more than three times higher than today. We therefore propose that continental fragmentation and long-term climate change could plausibly be linked via massive CO2 degassing in rift systems.

  12. Single-Locus versus Multilocus Patterns of Local Adaptation to Climate in Eastern White Pine (Pinus strobus, Pinaceae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Om P Rajora

    Full Text Available Natural plant populations are often adapted to their local climate and environmental conditions, and populations of forest trees offer some of the best examples of this pattern. However, little empirical work has focused on the relative contribution of single-locus versus multilocus effects to the genetic architecture of local adaptation in plants/forest trees. Here, we employ eastern white pine (Pinus strobus to test the hypothesis that it is the inter-genic effects that primarily drive climate-induced local adaptation. The genetic structure of 29 range-wide natural populations of eastern white pine was determined in relation to local climatic factors using both a reference set of SSR markers, and SNPs located in candidate genes putatively involved in adaptive response to climate. Comparisons were made between marker sets using standard single-locus outlier analysis, single-locus and multilocus environment association analyses and a novel implementation of Population Graphs. Magnitudes of population structure were similar between the two marker sets. Outlier loci consistent with diversifying selection were rare for both SNPs and SSRs. However, genetic distances based on the multilocus among population covariances (cGD were significantly more correlated to climate, even after correcting for spatial effects, for SNPs as compared to SSRs. Coalescent simulations confirmed that the differences in mutation rates between SSRs and SNPs did not affect the topologies of the Population Graphs, and hence values of cGD and their correlations with associated climate variables. We conclude that the multilocus covariances among populations primarily reflect adaptation to local climate and environment in eastern white pine. This result highlights the complexity of the genetic architecture of adaptive traits, as well as the need to consider multilocus effects in studies of local adaptation.

  13. Towards a Seamless Framework for Drought Analysis and Prediction from Seasonal to Climate Change Time Scales (Plinius Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, Justin

    2013-04-01

    Droughts arguably cause the most impacts of all natural hazards in terms of the number of people affected and the long-term economic costs and ecosystem stresses. Recent droughts worldwide have caused humanitarian and economic problems such as food insecurity across the Horn of Africa, agricultural economic losses across the central US and loss of livelihoods in rural western India. The prospect of future increases in drought severity and duration driven by projected changes in precipitation patterns and increasing temperatures is worrisome. Some evidence for climate change impacts on drought is already being seen for some regions, such as the Mediterranean and east Africa. Mitigation of the impacts of drought requires advance warning of developing conditions and enactment of drought plans to reduce vulnerability. A key element of this is a drought early warning system that at its heart is the capability to monitor evolving hydrological conditions and water resources storage, and provide reliable and robust predictions out to several months, as well as the capacity to act on this information. At longer time scales, planning and policy-making need to consider the potential impacts of climate change and its impact on drought risk, and do this within the context of natural climate variability, which is likely to dominate any climate change signal over the next few decades. There are several challenges that need to be met to advance our capability to provide both early warning at seasonal time scales and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Advancing our understanding of drought predictability and risk requires knowledge of drought at all time scales. This includes understanding of past drought occurrence, from the paleoclimate record to the recent past, and understanding of drought mechanisms, from initiation, through persistence to recovery and translation of this understanding to predictive models. Current approaches to monitoring and

  14. Reconstructing past species assemblages reveals the changing patterns and drivers of extinction through time

    OpenAIRE

    Bromham, Lindell; Lanfear, Robert; Cassey, Phillip; Gibb, Gillian; Cardillo, Marcel

    2012-01-01

    Predicting future species extinctions from patterns of past extinctions or current threat status relies on the assumption that the taxonomic and biological selectivity of extinction is consistent through time. If the driving forces of extinction change through time, this assumption may be unrealistic. Testing the consistency of extinction patterns between the past and the present has been difficult, because the phylogenetically explicit methods used to model present-day extinction risk typica...

  15. Pause Time Patterns in Writing Narrative and Expository Texts by Children and Adults

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hell, J.G. van; Verhoeven, L.T.W.; Beijsterveldt, E.M. van

    2008-01-01

    How do beginning and skilled writers compose a text in the course of time? To gain insight into the temporal aspects of planning and translating activities during writing, this article examined writing in real time and analyzed pause time patterns in writing in relation to linguistic characteristics

  16. Noachian Climate of Mars: Insights from Noachian Stratigraphy and Valley Networks System Formation Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Head, J. W., III

    2017-12-01

    Noachian climate models have been proposed in order to account for 1) observed fluvial and lacustrine activity, 2) weathering processes producing phyllosilicates, and 3) an unusual impact record including three major impact basins and unusual degradation processes. We adopt a stratigraphic approach in order place these observations in a temporal context. Formation of the major impact basins Hellas, Isidis and Argyre in earlier Noachian profoundly influenced the uplands geology and appears to have occurred concurrently with major phyllosilicate and related surface occurrences/deposits; the immediate aftermath of these basins appears to have created a temporary hot and wet surface environment with significant effect on surface morphology and alteration processes. Formation of Late Noachian-Early Hesperian valley network systems (VNS) signaled the presence of warm/wet conditions generating several hypotheses for climates permissive of these conditions. We examined estimates for the time required to carve channels/deltas and total duration implied by plausible intermittencies. Synthesis of required timescales show that the total time to carve the VN does not exceed 106 years, 273 K, hydrological system vertically integrated, and rainfall occurs to recharge the aquifer. 2) Cold and Icy climate warmed by greenhouse gases or episodic stochastic events: Climate is sustained cold/icy, but greenhouse gases of unspecified nature/amount/duration elevate MAT by several tens of Kelvins, bringing the annual temperature range into the realm where peak seasonal temperatures (PST) exceed 273 K. In this climate environment, analogous to the Antarctic Dry Valleys, seasonal summer temperatures above 273 K are sufficient to melt snow/ice and form fluvial and lacustrine features, but MAT is well below 273 K (253 K); punctuated warming alternatives include impacts or volcanic eruptions. We conclude that a cold and icy background climate with modest greenhouse warming or punctuated warming

  17. Climatic and ecological drivers of euphausiid community structure vary spatially in the Barents Sea: relationships from a long time series (1952-2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma Lvovna Orlova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Euphausiids play an important role in transferring energy from ephemeral primary producers to fish, seabirds, and marine mammals in the Barents Sea ecosystem. Climatic impacts have been suggested to occur at all levels of the Barents Sea food-web, but adequate exploration of these phenomena on ecologically relevant spatial scales has not been integrated sufficiently. We used a time-series of euphausiid abundance data spanning 58 years, one of the longest biological time-series in the Arctic, to explore qualitative and quantitative relationships among climate, euphausiids, and their predators, and how these parameters vary spatially in the Barents Sea. We detected four main hydrographic regions, each with distinct patterns of interannual variability in euphausiid abundance and community structure. Assemblages varied primarily in the relative abundance of Thysanoessa inermis versus T. raschii, or T. inermis versus T. longicaudata and Meganyctiphanes norvegica. Climate proxies and the abundance of capelin or cod explained 30-60% of the variability in euphausiid abundance in each region. Climate also influenced patterns of variability in euphausiid community structure, but correlations were generally weaker. Advection of boreal euphausiid taxa from the Norwegian Sea is clearly more prominent in warmer years than in colder years, and interacts with seasonal fish migrations to help explain spatial differences in primary drivers of euphausiid community structure. Non-linear effects of predators were common, and must be considered more carefully if a mechanistic understanding of the ecosystem is to be achieved. Quantitative relationships among euphausiid abundance, climate proxies, and predator stock-sizes derived from these time series are valuable for ecological models being used to predict impacts of climate change on the Barents Sea ecosystem, and how the system should be managed.

  18. Climatic gradients and human development pressure determine spatial patterns of forest fragmentation in the Great Lakes basin, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, W. S.; Hart, S.

    2015-12-01

    Over half of temperate forest area globally has been fragmented or deforested by human activities. Our objective was to gain insight into the combination of climatic, ecological, and social factors that control complex spatial patterns of forest cover and fragmentation at the regional scale. Our study area was the US portion of the land area of the Laurentian Great Lakes basin (USGL basin) of the Upper Midwest, USA, covering ca. 300,000 km2 and home to 25 million people. While this region was historically forested, today there are regional gradients in forest cover as well as complex spatial patterns of agriculture, human settlements, and tree cover. This includes large expanses of fragmented forests in the wildland-urban interface or the forest transition zone. We used structural equation modeling to test models of social and climatic-ecological factors to explain spatial patterns of forest cover and fragmentation. This is a model-driven approach to statistical analysis that is used to test proposed causal "structures" of direct and indirect relationships among variables. It is an innovative approach that makes use of large spatial datasets to test understanding. We assembled numerous spatial data layers at 1 km2 resolution across the USGL basin. We found that 64% to 75% of variance in tree cover and forest connectivity was explained through a relatively simple model combining climatic gradients and human development pressure. Human development pressure was best represented as a measurement model that explained 45% of variance in road density and 87% of housing unit density, while significantly explaining patterns of forest fragmentation. Climate could be represented by a single variable, temperature: where temperature was higher, tree cover and forest connectivity was lower due to human land use. Temperatures did not help to explain patterns of human development as roads and housing, but did affect forest fragmentation through land use as cropland. This suggests

  19. Large-scale climatic phenomena drive fluctuations in macroinvertebrate assemblages in lowland tropical streams, Costa Rica: The importance of ENSO events in determining long-term (15y) patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez-Fonseca, Pablo E; Ramírez, Alonso; Pringle, Catherine M

    2018-01-01

    Understanding how environmental variables influence the distribution and density of organisms over relatively long temporal scales is a central question in ecology given increased climatic variability (e.g., precipitation, ENSO events). The primary goal of our study was to evaluate long-term (15y time span) patterns of climate, as well as environmental parameters in two Neotropical streams in lowland Costa Rica, to assess potential effects on aquatic macroinvertebrates. We also examined the relative effects of an 8y whole-stream P-enrichment experiment on macroinvertebrate assemblages against the backdrop of this long-term study. Climate, environmental variables and macroinvertebrate samples were measured monthly for 7y and then quarterly for an additional 8y in each stream. Temporal patterns in climatic and environmental variables showed high variability over time, without clear inter-annual or intra-annual patterns. Macroinvertebrate richness and abundance decreased with increasing discharge and was positively related to the number of days since the last high discharge event. Findings show that fluctuations in stream physicochemistry and macroinvertebrate assemblage structure are ultimately the result of large-scale climatic phenomena, such as ENSO events, while the 8y P-enrichment did not appear to affect macroinvertebrates. Our study demonstrates that Neotropical lowland streams are highly dynamic and not as stable as is commonly presumed, with high intra- and inter-annual variability in environmental parameters that change the structure and composition of freshwater macroinvertebrate assemblages.

  20. Large-scale climatic phenomena drive fluctuations in macroinvertebrate assemblages in lowland tropical streams, Costa Rica: The importance of ENSO events in determining long-term (15y patterns.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo E Gutiérrez-Fonseca

    Full Text Available Understanding how environmental variables influence the distribution and density of organisms over relatively long temporal scales is a central question in ecology given increased climatic variability (e.g., precipitation, ENSO events. The primary goal of our study was to evaluate long-term (15y time span patterns of climate, as well as environmental parameters in two Neotropical streams in lowland Costa Rica, to assess potential effects on aquatic macroinvertebrates. We also examined the relative effects of an 8y whole-stream P-enrichment experiment on macroinvertebrate assemblages against the backdrop of this long-term study. Climate, environmental variables and macroinvertebrate samples were measured monthly for 7y and then quarterly for an additional 8y in each stream. Temporal patterns in climatic and environmental variables showed high variability over time, without clear inter-annual or intra-annual patterns. Macroinvertebrate richness and abundance decreased with increasing discharge and was positively related to the number of days since the last high discharge event. Findings show that fluctuations in stream physicochemistry and macroinvertebrate assemblage structure are ultimately the result of large-scale climatic phenomena, such as ENSO events, while the 8y P-enrichment did not appear to affect macroinvertebrates. Our study demonstrates that Neotropical lowland streams are highly dynamic and not as stable as is commonly presumed, with high intra- and inter-annual variability in environmental parameters that change the structure and composition of freshwater macroinvertebrate assemblages.

  1. Large-scale climatic phenomena drive fluctuations in macroinvertebrate assemblages in lowland tropical streams, Costa Rica: The importance of ENSO events in determining long-term (15y) patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez, Alonso; Pringle, Catherine M.

    2018-01-01

    Understanding how environmental variables influence the distribution and density of organisms over relatively long temporal scales is a central question in ecology given increased climatic variability (e.g., precipitation, ENSO events). The primary goal of our study was to evaluate long-term (15y time span) patterns of climate, as well as environmental parameters in two Neotropical streams in lowland Costa Rica, to assess potential effects on aquatic macroinvertebrates. We also examined the relative effects of an 8y whole-stream P-enrichment experiment on macroinvertebrate assemblages against the backdrop of this long-term study. Climate, environmental variables and macroinvertebrate samples were measured monthly for 7y and then quarterly for an additional 8y in each stream. Temporal patterns in climatic and environmental variables showed high variability over time, without clear inter-annual or intra-annual patterns. Macroinvertebrate richness and abundance decreased with increasing discharge and was positively related to the number of days since the last high discharge event. Findings show that fluctuations in stream physicochemistry and macroinvertebrate assemblage structure are ultimately the result of large-scale climatic phenomena, such as ENSO events, while the 8y P-enrichment did not appear to affect macroinvertebrates. Our study demonstrates that Neotropical lowland streams are highly dynamic and not as stable as is commonly presumed, with high intra- and inter-annual variability in environmental parameters that change the structure and composition of freshwater macroinvertebrate assemblages. PMID:29420548

  2. Developing a complex independent component analysis technique to extract non-stationary patterns from geophysical time-series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forootan, Ehsan; Kusche, Jürgen

    2016-04-01

    Geodetic/geophysical observations, such as the time series of global terrestrial water storage change or sea level and temperature change, represent samples of physical processes and therefore contain information about complex physical interactionswith many inherent time scales. Extracting relevant information from these samples, for example quantifying the seasonality of a physical process or its variability due to large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions, is not possible by rendering simple time series approaches. In the last decades, decomposition techniques have found increasing interest for extracting patterns from geophysical observations. Traditionally, principal component analysis (PCA) and more recently independent component analysis (ICA) are common techniques to extract statistical orthogonal (uncorrelated) and independent modes that represent the maximum variance of observations, respectively. PCA and ICA can be classified as stationary signal decomposition techniques since they are based on decomposing the auto-covariance matrix or diagonalizing higher (than two)-order statistical tensors from centered time series. However, the stationary assumption is obviously not justifiable for many geophysical and climate variables even after removing cyclic components e.g., the seasonal cycles. In this paper, we present a new decomposition method, the complex independent component analysis (CICA, Forootan, PhD-2014), which can be applied to extract to non-stationary (changing in space and time) patterns from geophysical time series. Here, CICA is derived as an extension of real-valued ICA (Forootan and Kusche, JoG-2012), where we (i) define a new complex data set using a Hilbert transformation. The complex time series contain the observed values in their real part, and the temporal rate of variability in their imaginary part. (ii) An ICA algorithm based on diagonalization of fourth-order cumulants is then applied to decompose the new complex data set in (i

  3. Time-series analysis of sleep wake stage of rat EEG using time-dependent pattern entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishizaki, Ryuji; Shinba, Toshikazu; Mugishima, Go; Haraguchi, Hikaru; Inoue, Masayoshi

    2008-05-01

    We performed electroencephalography (EEG) for six male Wistar rats to clarify temporal behaviors at different levels of consciousness. Levels were identified both by conventional sleep analysis methods and by our novel entropy method. In our method, time-dependent pattern entropy is introduced, by which EEG is reduced to binary symbolic dynamics and the pattern of symbols in a sliding temporal window is considered. A high correlation was obtained between level of consciousness as measured by the conventional method and mean entropy in our entropy method. Mean entropy was maximal while awake (stage W) and decreased as sleep deepened. These results suggest that time-dependent pattern entropy may offer a promising method for future sleep research.

  4. Modelling of the Annual Mean Urban Heat Island Pattern for Planning of Representative Urban Climate Station Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    János Unger

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The spatial distribution of the annual mean urban heat island (UHI intensity pattern was analysed for the medium-sized city Novi Sad, Serbia, located on the low and flat Great Hungarian Plain. The UHI pattern was determined by an empirical modelling method developed by (Balázs et al. 2009. This method was based on datasets from urban areas of Szeged and Debrecen (Hungary. The urban study area in Novi Sad (60 km2 was established as a grid network of 240 cells (0.5 km ×0.5 km. A Landsat satellite image (from June 2006 was used in order to evaluate normalized difference vegetation index and built-up ratio by cells. The pattern of the obtained UHI intensity values show concentric-like shapes when drawn as isotherms, mostly increase from the suburbs towards the inner urban areas. Results of this thermal pattern and determination of one of the local climate classification systems were used for recommending 10 locations for representative stations of an urban climate network in Novi Sad.

  5. Student and teacher perceptions of school climate: a multilevel exploration of patterns of discrepancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Mary M; Bradshaw, Catherine P; Leaf, Philip J

    2010-06-01

    School climate has been linked with improved academic achievement and reduced discipline problems, and thus is often a target of school improvement initiatives. However, few studies have examined the extent to which student and teacher perceptions vary as a function of individual, classroom, and school characteristics, or the level of congruence between teachers' and their students' perceptions of school climate. Using data from 1881 fifth-grade students and their 90 homeroom teachers, we examined parallel models of students' and teachers' perceptions of overall school climate and academic emphasis. Two additional models were fit that assessed the congruence between teacher and student perceptions of school climate and academic emphasis. Multilevel analyses indicated that classroom-level factors were more closely associated with teachers' perceptions of climate, whereas school-level factors were more closely associated with the students' perceptions. Further analyses indicated an inverse association between student and teacher ratings of academic emphasis, and no association between student and teacher ratings of overall climate. Teacher ratings were more sensitive to classroom-level factors, such as poor classroom management and proportion of students with disruptive behaviors, whereas student ratings were more influenced by school-level factors such as student mobility, student-teacher relationship, and principal turnover. The discrepancy in ratings of academic emphasis suggests that while all of the respondents may have shared objectively similar experiences, their perceptions of those experiences varied significantly. These results emphasize the importance of assessing both student and teacher perceptions in future research on school climate.

  6. Sensitivity of leaf size and shape to climate: Global patterns and paleoclimatic applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peppe, D.J.; Royer, D.L.; Cariglino, B.; Oliver, S.Y.; Newman, S.; Leight, E.; Enikolopov, G.; Fernandez-Burgos, M.; Herrera, F.; Adams, J.M.; Correa, E.; Currano, E.D.; Erickson, J.M.; Hinojosa, L.F.; Hoganson, J.W.; Iglesias, A.; Jaramillo, C.A.; Johnson, K.R.; Jordan, G.J.; Kraft, N.J.B.; Lovelock, E.C.; Lusk, C.H.; Niinemets, U.; Penuelas, J.; Rapson, G.; Wing, S.L.; Wright, I.J.

    2011-01-01

    Paleobotanists have long used models based on leaf size and shape to reconstruct paleoclimate. However, most models incorporate a single variable or use traits that are not physiologically or functionally linked to climate, limiting their predictive power. Further, they often underestimate paleotemperature relative to other proxies. Here we quantify leaf-climate correlations from 92 globally distributed, climatically diverse sites, and explore potential confounding factors. Multiple linear regression models for mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) are developed and applied to nine well-studied fossil floras. We find that leaves in cold climates typically have larger, more numerous teeth, and are more highly dissected. Leaf habit (deciduous vs evergreen), local water availability, and phylogenetic history all affect these relationships. Leaves in wet climates are larger and have fewer, smaller teeth. Our multivariate MAT and MAP models offer moderate improvements in precision over univariate approaches (??4.0 vs 4.8??C for MAT) and strong improvements in accuracy. For example, our provisional MAT estimates for most North American fossil floras are considerably warmer and in better agreement with independent paleoclimate evidence. Our study demonstrates that the inclusion of additional leaf traits that are functionally linked to climate improves paleoclimate reconstructions. This work also illustrates the need for better understanding of the impact of phylogeny and leaf habit on leaf-climate relationships. ?? 2011 The Authors. New Phytologist ?? 2011 New Phytologist Trust.

  7. Effects of weather and climate on the dynamics of animal population time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knape, Jonas; de Valpine, Perry

    2011-04-07

    Weather is one of the most basic factors impacting animal populations, but the typical strength of such impacts on population dynamics is unknown. We incorporate weather and climate index data into analysis of 492 time series of mammals, birds and insects from the global population dynamics database. A conundrum is that a multitude of weather data may a priori be considered potentially important and hence present a risk of statistical over-fitting. We find that model selection or averaging alone could spuriously indicate that weather provides strong improvements to short-term population prediction accuracy. However, a block randomization test reveals that most improvements result from over-fitting. Weather and climate variables do, in general, improve predictions, but improvements were barely detectable despite the large number of datasets considered. Climate indices such as North Atlantic Oscillation are not better predictors of population change than local weather variables. Insect time series are typically less predictable than bird or mammal time series, although all taxonomic classes display low predictability. Our results are in line with the view that population dynamics is often too complex to allow resolving mechanisms from time series, but we argue that time series analysis can still be useful for estimating net environmental effects.

  8. Elucidation of time-dependent systems biology cell response patterns with time course network enrichment

    OpenAIRE

    Wiwie, Christian; Rauch, Alexander; Haakonsson, Anders; Barrio-Hernandez, Inigo; Blagoev, Blagoy; Mandrup, Susanne; Röttger, Richard; Baumbach, Jan

    2018-01-01

    Advances in OMICS technologies emerged both massive expression data sets and huge networks modelling the molecular interplay of genes, RNAs, proteins and metabolites. Network enrichment methods combine these two data types to extract subnetwork responses from case/control setups. However, no methods exist to integrate time series data with networks, thus preventing the identification of time-dependent systems biology responses. We close this gap with Time Course Network Enrichment (TiCoNE). I...

  9. Flexibility of timing of avian migration to climate change masked by environmental constraints en route.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Both, Christiaan

    2010-02-09

    During the past decades, phenology of many organisms has advanced in response to climate change [1]. Earlier arrival of long-distance migrants has been reported frequently [2, 3], but advancements of arrival and breeding were not always sufficient to match phenology at other trophic levels [4]. This has led to increased selection for early breeding [5] and severe population declines [6, 7]. This inadequate response has been explained by an inflexible start of migration, governed by cues unrelated to climate change, such as photoperiod [8]. It has been suggested that evolution at the genetic level is required for a change in photoresponsiveness [9]. Recently, such an evolutionary change in migration timing was suggested [10]. Here I show that timing of spring migration of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) has responded flexibly to climate change. Recovery dates during spring migration in Northern Africa advanced by ten days between 1980 and 2002, which was explained by improving Sahel rainfall and a phenotypic effect of birth date. The lack of advance on the breeding grounds most likely was due to environmental constraints during migration. Adjustment of arrival date in migrants to climate change could thus be rapid, but only if circumstances favorably change for the whole journey.

  10. Frequent but asymmetric niche shifts in Bulbophyllum orchids support environmental and climatic instability in Madagascar over Quaternary time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamisch, Alexander; Fischer, Gunter Alexander; Comes, Hans Peter

    2016-01-19

    Species or clades may retain or shift their environmental niche space over evolutionary time. Understanding these processes offers insights into the environmental processes fuelling lineage diversification and might also provide information on past range dynamics of ecosystems. However, little is known about the relative contributions of niche conservatism versus niche divergence to species diversification in the tropics. Here, we examined broad-scale patterns of niche evolution within a Pliocene-Pleistocene clade of epiphytic Bulbophyllum orchids (30 spp.) whose collective distribution covers the northwest and eastern forest ecosystems of Madagascar. Using species occurrence data, ecological niche models, and multivariate analyses of contributing variables, we identified a three-state niche distribution character for the entire clade, coinciding with three major forest biomes viz. phytogeographical provinces in Madagascar: A, Northwest 'Sambirano'; B, 'Eastern Lowlands'; and C, 'Central Highlands'. A time-calibrated phylogeny and Bayesian models of niche evolution were then used to detect general trends in the direction of niche change over the clade's history (≤5.3 Ma). We found highest transitions rates between lowlands (A and B) and (mostly from B) into the highland (C), with extremely low rates out of the latter. Lowland-to-highland transitions occurred frequently during the Quaternary, suggesting that climate-induced vegetational shifts promoted niche transitions and ecological speciation at this time. Our results reveal that niche transitions occurred frequently and asymmetrically within this Madagascan orchid clade, and in particular over Quaternary time scales. Intrinsic features germane to Bulbophyllum (e.g., high dispersal ability, drought tolerance, multiple photosynthetic pathways) as well as extrinsic factors (ecological, historical) likely interacted to generate the niche transition patterns observed. In sum, our results support the emerging idea

  11. Principal Time Management Skills: Explaining Patterns in Principals' Time Use, Job Stress, and Perceived Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grissom, Jason A.; Loeb, Susanna; Mitani, Hajime

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Time demands faced by school principals make principals' work increasingly difficult. Research outside education suggests that effective time management skills may help principals meet job demands, reduce job stress, and improve their performance. The purpose of this paper is to investigate these hypotheses. Design/methodology/approach:…

  12. Patient safety climate profiles across time: Strength and level of safety climate associated with a quality improvement program in Switzerland—A cross-sectional survey study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascherek, Anna C.

    2017-01-01

    Safety Climate has been acknowledged as an unspecific factor influencing patient safety. However, studies rarely provide in-depth analysis of climate data. As a helpful approach, the concept of “climate strength” has been proposed. In the present study we tested the hypotheses that even if safety climate remains stable on mean-level across time, differences might be evident in strength or shape. The data of two hospitals participating in a large national quality improvement program were analysed for differences in climate profiles at two measurement occasions. We analysed differences on mean-level, differences in percent problematic response, agreement within groups, and frequency histograms in two large hospitals in Switzerland at two measurement occasions (2013 and 2015) applying the Safety Climate Survey. In total, survey responses of 1193 individuals were included in the analyses. Overall, small but significant differences on mean-level of safety climate emerged for some subgroups. Also, although agreement was strong at both time-points within groups, tendencies of divergence or consensus were present in both hospitals. Depending on subgroup and analyses chosen, differences were more or less pronounced. The present study illustrated that taking several measures into account and describing safety climate from different perspectives is necessary in order to fully understand differences and trends within groups and to develop interventions addressing the needs of different groups more precisely. PMID:28753633

  13. Climatic and anthropogenic factors changing spawning pattern and production zone of Hilsa fishery in the Bay of Bengal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Shohidullah Miah

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Hilsa (Tenualosa ilisha Hamilton as a single species accounts 12% for more than half of the total marine catches. About 2% of the entire population of the country is directly or indirectly engaged with Hilsa fishing. Hilsa has a wide geographical distribution in Asia from the Persian Gulf to the South China Sea. Particularly large stocks are found in Upper Bay of Bengal (BoB region sustained by the large river systems. The global Hilsa catch is reported 75% from Bangladesh water, 15% from Myanmar, 5% from India and 5% from other countries such as Thailand and Iran. Hilsa is a highly migratory and anadromous fish with the same migratory and same breeding behavior as that of Atlantic Salmon fish (Salmo sp.. Due to various anthropogenic activities, climate change effect, increased siltation and rising of the river basins, the migratory routes as well as spawning grounds of Hilsa are disturbed, displaced or even destroyed. During last two decades hilsa production from inland water declined about 20%, whereas marine water yield increased about 3 times. Major Hilsa to catch has been gradually shifted from inland to marine water. Hilsa fish ascend for spawning migration from sea into estuaries. It has been found that the major spawning areas have been shifted to the lower estuarine regions of Hatia, Sandwip and Bhola. At the spawning ground of Hilsa, the fishing level F=1.36 yr−1, where in the river Meghna the Fmsy=0.6 yr−1 and exploitation rate E=0.70 is (Emsy>0.5. Oceanographic changes viz. high turbidity increased flooding, more tidal action and changes of salinity etc. have accelerated the change of migration patterns of spawning, growth and its production. Hilsa fecundity ranges from 1.5 to 2.0 million eggs for fish ranging in length from 35 to 50 cm. Hilsa fecundity is declining in different areas due to climate change and the declining fecundity impacting greatly on Hilsa production. Due to shifting of the spawning ground at the lower

  14. Potential impacts of climate change on the distributions and diversity patterns of European mammals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Levinsky, Irina; Skov, Flemming; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2007-01-01

    Abstract  The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase in global temperatures of between 1.4°C and 5.8°C during the 21st century, as a result of elevated CO2 levels. Using bioclimatic envelope models, we evaluate the potential impact of climate change...... (lose > 30% of their current distribution) under the two scenarios. Under the no migration assumption endemic species were predicted to be strongly negatively affected by future climatic changes, while widely distributed species would be more mildly affected. Finally, potential mammalian species...... should therefore be seen as first approximations of the potential magnitude of future climatic changes....

  15. Local perceptions of climate change impacts and migration patterns in Male, Maldives

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Stojanov, R.; Duží, Barbora; Kelman, I.; Němec, D.; Procházka, D.

    -, 18. April 2016 (2016) ISSN 1475-4959 Institutional support: RVO:68145535 Keywords : Maldives * climate change impacts * migration Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geoj.12177/full

  16. Changes in spatial patterns of Caragana stenophylla along a climatic drought gradient on the Inner Mongolian Plateau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Li-Na; Guo, Hong-Yu; Gabler, Christopher A; Li, Qing-Fang; Ma, Cheng-Cang

    2015-01-01

    Few studies have investigated the influence of water availability on plant population spatial patterns. We studied changes in the spatial patterns of Caragana stenophylla along a climatic drought gradient within the Inner Mongolian Plateau, China. We examined spatial patterns, seed density, "nurse effects" of shrubs on seedlings, transpiration rates and water use efficiency (WUE) of C. stenophylla across semi-arid, arid, and intensively arid zones. Our results showed that patches of C. stenophylla populations shifted from a random to a clumped spatial pattern towards drier environments. Seed density and seedling survival rate of C. stenophylla decreased from the semi-arid zone to the intensively arid zone. Across the three zones, there were more C. stenophylla seeds and seedlings underneath shrub canopies than outside shrub canopies; and in the intensively arid zone, there were almost no seeds or seedlings outside shrub canopies. Transpiration rates of outer-canopy leaves and WUE of both outer-canopy and inner-canopy leaves increased from the semi-arid zone to the intensively arid zone. In the intensively arid zone, transpiration rates and WUE of inner-canopy leaves were significantly lower and higher, respectively, than those of outer-canopy leaves. We conclude that, as drought stress increased, seed density decreased, seed proportions inside shrubs increased, and "nurse effects" of shrubs on seedlings became more important. These factors, combined with water-saving characteristics associated with clumped spatial patterns, are likely driving the changes in C. stenophylla spatial patterns.

  17. Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroth, Götz; Läderach, Peter; Martinez-Valle, Armando Isaac; Bunn, Christian; Jassogne, Laurence

    2016-06-15

    The West African cocoa belt, reaching from Sierra Leone to southern Cameroon, is the origin of about 70% of the world's cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which in turn is the basis of the livelihoods of about two million farmers. We analyze cocoa's vulnerability to climate change in the West African cocoa belt, based on climate projections for the 2050s of 19 Global Circulation Models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change intermediate emissions scenario RCP 6.0. We use a combination of a statistical model of climatic suitability (Maxent) and the analysis of individual, potentially limiting climate variables. We find that: 1) contrary to expectation, maximum dry season temperatures are projected to become as or more limiting for cocoa as dry season water availability; 2) to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa to excessive dry season temperatures, the systematic use of adaptation strategies like shade trees in cocoa farms will be necessary, in reversal of the current trend of shade reduction; 3) there is a strong differentiation of climate vulnerability within the cocoa belt, with the most vulnerable areas near the forest-savanna transition in Nigeria and eastern Côte d'Ivoire, and the least vulnerable areas in the southern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia; 4) this spatial differentiation of climate vulnerability may lead to future shifts in cocoa production within the region, with the opportunity of partially compensating losses and gains, but also the risk of local production expansion leading to new deforestation. We conclude that adaptation strategies for cocoa in West Africa need to focus at several levels, from the consideration of tolerance to high temperatures in cocoa breeding programs, the promotion of shade trees in cocoa farms, to policies incentivizing the intensification of cocoa production on existing farms where future climate conditions permit and the establishment of new farms in already deforested areas. Copyright © 2016

  18. Relevance of emissions timing in biofuel greenhouse gases and climate impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwietzke, Stefan; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott

    2011-10-01

    Employing life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a key performance metric in energy and environmental policy may underestimate actual climate change impacts. Emissions released early in the life cycle cause greater cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) over the next decades than later emissions. Some indicate that ignoring emissions timing in traditional biofuel GHG accounting overestimates the effectiveness of policies supporting corn ethanol by 10-90% due to early land use change (LUC) induced GHGs. We use an IPCC climate model to (1) estimate absolute CRF from U.S. corn ethanol and (2) quantify an emissions timing factor (ETF), which is masked in the traditional GHG accounting. In contrast to earlier analyses, ETF is only 2% (5%) over 100 (50) years of impacts. Emissions uncertainty itself (LUC, fuel production period) is 1-2 orders of magnitude higher, which dwarfs the timing effect. From a GHG accounting perspective, emissions timing adds little to our understanding of the climate impacts of biofuels. However, policy makers should recognize that ETF could significantly decrease corn ethanol's probability of meeting the 20% GHG reduction target in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act. The added uncertainty of potentially employing more complex emissions metrics is yet to be quantified.

  19. Modeling Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Forcing on Centennial and Decadal Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, G.; Cahalan, R.; Rind, D.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J.

    2012-01-01

    We report a series of experiments to explore clima responses to two types of solar spectral forcing on decadal and centennial time scales - one based on prior reconstructions, and another implied by recent observations from the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral 1rradiance Monitor). We apply these forcings to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM). that couples atmosphere with ocean, and has a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full response to the two solar forcing scenarios. We show different climate responses to the two solar forCing scenarios on decadal time scales and also trends on centennial time scales. Differences between solar maximum and solar minimum conditions are highlighted, including impacts of the time lagged reSponse of the lower atmosphere and ocean. This contrasts with studies that assume separate equilibrium conditions at solar maximum and minimum. We discuss model feedback mechanisms involved in the solar forced climate variations.

  20. Geographical patterns in climate and agricultural technology drive soybean productivity in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caetano, Jordana Moura; Tessarolo, Geiziane; de Oliveira, Guilherme; Souza, Kelly da Silva E; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola; Nabout, João Carlos

    2018-01-01

    The impacts of global climate change have been a worldwide concern for several research areas, including those dealing with resources essential to human well being, such as agriculture, which directly impact economic activities and food security. Here we evaluate the relative effect of climate (as indicated by the Ecological Niche Model-ENM) and agricultural technology on actual soybean productivity in Brazilian municipalities and estimate the future geographic distribution of soybeans using a novel statistical approach allowing the evaluation of partial coefficients in a non-stationary (Geographically Weighted Regression; GWR) model. We found that technology was more important than climate in explaining soybean productivity in Brazil. However, some municipalities are more dependent on environmental suitability (mainly in Southern Brazil). The future environmental suitability for soybean cultivation tends to decrease by up 50% in the central region of Brazil. Meanwhile, southern-most Brazil will have more favourable conditions, with an increase of ca. 25% in environmental suitability. Considering that opening new areas for cultivation can degrade environmental quality, we suggest that, in the face of climate change impacts on soybean cultivation, the Brazilian government and producers must invest in breeding programmes and more general ecosystem-based strategies for adaptation to climate change, including the development of varieties tolerant to climate stress, and strategies to increase productivity and reduce costs (social and environmental).

  1. Plant Species Rather Than Climate Greatly Alters the Temporal Pattern of Litter Chemical Composition During Long-Term Decomposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yongfu; Chen, Na; Harmon, Mark E.; Li, Yuan; Cao, Xiaoyan; Chappell, Mark A.; Mao, Jingdong

    2015-10-01

    A feedback between decomposition and litter chemical composition occurs with decomposition altering composition that in turn influences the decomposition rate. Elucidating the temporal pattern of chemical composition is vital to understand this feedback, but the effects of plant species and climate on chemical changes remain poorly understood, especially over multiple years. In a 10-year decomposition experiment with litter of four species (Acer saccharum, Drypetes glauca, Pinus resinosa, and Thuja plicata) from four sites that range from the arctic to tropics, we determined the abundance of 11 litter chemical constituents that were grouped into waxes, carbohydrates, lignin/tannins, and proteins/peptides using advanced 13C solid-state NMR techniques. Decomposition generally led to an enrichment of waxes and a depletion of carbohydrates, whereas the changes of other chemical constituents were inconsistent. Inconsistent convergence in chemical compositions during decomposition was observed among different litter species across a range of site conditions, whereas one litter species converged under different climate conditions. Our data clearly demonstrate that plant species rather than climate greatly alters the temporal pattern of litter chemical composition, suggesting the decomposition-chemistry feedback varies among different plant species.

  2. Developing a Complex Independent Component Analysis (CICA) Technique to Extract Non-stationary Patterns from Geophysical Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forootan, Ehsan; Kusche, Jürgen; Talpe, Matthieu; Shum, C. K.; Schmidt, Michael

    2017-12-01

    In recent decades, decomposition techniques have enabled increasingly more applications for dimension reduction, as well as extraction of additional information from geophysical time series. Traditionally, the principal component analysis (PCA)/empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method and more recently the independent component analysis (ICA) have been applied to extract, statistical orthogonal (uncorrelated), and independent modes that represent the maximum variance of time series, respectively. PCA and ICA can be classified as stationary signal decomposition techniques since they are based on decomposing the autocovariance matrix and diagonalizing higher (than two) order statistical tensors from centered time series, respectively. However, the stationarity assumption in these techniques is not justified for many geophysical and climate variables even after removing cyclic components, e.g., the commonly removed dominant seasonal cycles. In this paper, we present a novel decomposition method, the complex independent component analysis (CICA), which can be applied to extract non-stationary (changing in space and time) patterns from geophysical time series. Here, CICA is derived as an extension of real-valued ICA, where (a) we first define a new complex dataset that contains the observed time series in its real part, and their Hilbert transformed series as its imaginary part, (b) an ICA algorithm based on diagonalization of fourth-order cumulants is then applied to decompose the new complex dataset in (a), and finally, (c) the dominant independent complex modes are extracted and used to represent the dominant space and time amplitudes and associated phase propagation patterns. The performance of CICA is examined by analyzing synthetic data constructed from multiple physically meaningful modes in a simulation framework, with known truth. Next, global terrestrial water storage (TWS) data from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravimetry mission

  3. Effects of radiant heat exposure on pacing pattern during a 15-km cycling time trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Levels, K.; de Koning, J.J.; Broekhuijzen, I.; Zwaan, T.; Foster Jr., C.C.; Daanen, H.A.M.

    2014-01-01

    The goal of this study was to investigate the effects of different durations of skin temperature manipulation on pacing patterns and performance during a 15-km cycling time trial. Nineteen well-trained men completed three 15-km cycling time trials in 18°C and 50% relative humidity with 4.5-km

  4. Efficiently and Effectively Mining Time-Constrained Sequential Patterns of Smartphone Application Usage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuo-Wei Hsu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Today, we have the freedom to install and use all kinds of applications on smartphones, thanks to the development of mobile communication and computing technologies. Undoubtedly, the system and application developers are eager to know how we use the applications on our smartphones in our daily life and so are the researchers. In this paper, we present our work on developing a pattern mining algorithm and applying it to smartphone application usage log collected from tens of smartphone users for several years. Our goal is to mine the sequential patterns each of which presents a series of application uses and satisfies a constraint on the maximum time interval between two application uses. However, we cannot mine such patterns by general algorithms and will miss some patterns by using the widely used implementation of the advanced algorithm specifically designed for time-constrained sequential pattern mining. We not only present an algorithm that can efficiently and effectively mine the patterns in which we are interested but also discuss and visualize the mined patterns. Our work could potentially support the related studies.

  5. Temporal contrast enhancement and parametric imaging for the visualisation of time patterns in dynamic scintigraphic imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deconinck, F.; Bossuyt, A.; Lepoudre, R.

    1982-01-01

    Image contrast, photon noise and sampling frequency limit the visual extraction of relevant temporal information in scintigraphic image series. When the Unitation is mainly due to low temporal contrast, temporal contrast enhancement will strongly improve the perceptibility of time patterns in the series. When the limitation is due to photon noise and limited temporal sampling, parametric imaging by means of the Hadamard transform can visualise temporal patterns. (WU)

  6. Tourist Perceptions On Supporting Infrastructure Facilities And Climate-Based Visiting Time Of Ngebel Lake, Ponorogo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ardhila Ayu Prasetyowati

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to analyze the tourists’ perception about the importance and satisfaction on the product of fisheries tourism, and to assess the visiting time of tourist based on climate conditions. The research was conducted in May to June 2013 in Ngebel Lake, Ponorogo. We used descriptive quantitative approach, with 45 respondents. Data collected from interview, questionnaire and observation. Analytical methods were used to determine the perception of tourists on the satisfaction and interest in fisheries tourism products, i.e. Importance Performance Analysis (IPA. We also used Tourism Climate Index (TCI to determine the visiting time of tourist. The results show the value of satisfaction and tourist interest is low, therefore the improvement of several aspects become important. It is encompasses: a the existence of parking area; b the condition of Ngebel Lake; c planning and management system, the condition of the local community; and d activities of fish course restaurant and fish farming system of floating net cages. TCI value indicates ideal conditions for tourists traveled in Ngebel Lake is in November (convenience index value of 106, in December (97 and in April (94. This appropriate time to visit Ngebel Lake is expected to create a good impression for the tourists and enjoy the various fisheries activities in Ngebel Lake. Keywords: Importance Performance Analysis, Ngebel Lake, Tourist Climate Index

  7. Patterns of expressive timing in performances of a Beethoven minuet by nineteen famous pianists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Repp, B H

    1990-08-01

    The timing patterns of 19 complete performances of the third movement of Beethoven's Piano Sonata op. 31, No. 3, were measured from oscillograms and analyzed statistically. One purpose of the study was to search for a timing pattern resembling the "Beethoven pulse" [Clynes, in Studies of Music Performance (Royal Academy of Music, Stockholm, 1983), pp. 76-181]. No constant pulse was found at the surface in any of the performances. Local patterns could be interpreted as evidence for an "underlying" pulse of the kind described by Clynes, but they could also derive from structural musical factors. On the whole, the artists' timing patterns served to underline the structure of the piece; lengthening at phrase boundaries and at moments of melodic/harmonic tension were the most salient features. A principal components analysis suggested that these timing variations in the Minuet could be described in terms of two orthogonal factors, one capturing mainly phrase-final lengthening, and the other reflecting phrase-internal variation as well as tempo changes. A group of musically experienced listeners evaluated the performances on a number of rating scales. Their judgments showed some significant relations to the measured timing patterns. Principal components analysis of the rating scales yielded four dimensions interpreted as force, individuality, depth, and speed. These preliminary results are encouraging for the development of more precise methods of music performance evaluation.

  8. Elucidation of time-dependent systems biology cell response patterns with time course network enrichment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wiwie, Christian; Rauch, Alexander; Haakonsson, Anders

    2018-01-01

    distinguishing temporal systems biology profiles in time series gene expression data of human lung cells after infection with Influenza and Rhino virus. TiCoNE is available online (https://ticone.compbio.sdu.dk) and as Cytoscape app in the Cytoscape App Store (http://apps.cytoscape.org/)....

  9. Investigation of Time Series Representations and Similarity Measures for Structural Damage Pattern Recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swartz, R. Andrew

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the time series representation methods and similarity measures for sensor data feature extraction and structural damage pattern recognition. Both model-based time series representation and dimensionality reduction methods are studied to compare the effectiveness of feature extraction for damage pattern recognition. The evaluation of feature extraction methods is performed by examining the separation of feature vectors among different damage patterns and the pattern recognition success rate. In addition, the impact of similarity measures on the pattern recognition success rate and the metrics for damage localization are also investigated. The test data used in this study are from the System Identification to Monitor Civil Engineering Structures (SIMCES) Z24 Bridge damage detection tests, a rigorous instrumentation campaign that recorded the dynamic performance of a concrete box-girder bridge under progressively increasing damage scenarios. A number of progressive damage test case datasets and damage test data with different damage modalities are used. The simulation results show that both time series representation methods and similarity measures have significant impact on the pattern recognition success rate. PMID:24191136

  10. Investigation of Time Series Representations and Similarity Measures for Structural Damage Pattern Recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenjia Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the time series representation methods and similarity measures for sensor data feature extraction and structural damage pattern recognition. Both model-based time series representation and dimensionality reduction methods are studied to compare the effectiveness of feature extraction for damage pattern recognition. The evaluation of feature extraction methods is performed by examining the separation of feature vectors among different damage patterns and the pattern recognition success rate. In addition, the impact of similarity measures on the pattern recognition success rate and the metrics for damage localization are also investigated. The test data used in this study are from the System Identification to Monitor Civil Engineering Structures (SIMCES Z24 Bridge damage detection tests, a rigorous instrumentation campaign that recorded the dynamic performance of a concrete box-girder bridge under progressively increasing damage scenarios. A number of progressive damage test case datasets and damage test data with different damage modalities are used. The simulation results show that both time series representation methods and similarity measures have significant impact on the pattern recognition success rate.

  11. Yield and crop cycle time of peaches cultivated in subtropical climates and subjected to different pruning times

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Augusto Ferraz

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The cultivation of peaches in regions of subtropical and tropical climate is currently achieved through a set of practices such as using less demanding cultivars in cold conditions, applying plant growth regulators to break dormancy, and performing specific pruning, like production and renewal pruning. Research on the climate adaptation of cultivars is of great importance in establishing a crop in a given region. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the agronomic performance of three cultivars subjected to different production pruning times in Botucatu/SP, where 2-year old peach trees were evaluated, grown at a spacing of 6.0 x 4.0 meters. The experimental design was a split plot design with four blocks, using the cultivars Douradão, BRS Kampai and BRS Rubimel, and the subplots corresponded to pruning times in May, June, July and August. Ten plants were used per plot, with the four central plants considered useful and the remaining considered as margins. Pruning in June and July showed the best results in terms of percentage of fruit set and production. The cultivar BRS Rubimel showed the best percentage of fruit set when pruned in June (44.96%, and best fruit production when pruned in July (18.7 kg plant-1. Pruning in May anticipated the harvest of cultivar BRS Rubimel by 13 days whereas pruning carried out in July and August provided late harvests for cultivars Douradão and BRS Kampai.

  12. GIS development to monitor climate change and its geohydrological consequences on non-monsoon crop pattern in Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rawat, Pradeep K.

    2014-09-01

    The main objective of the study was to assess climate change and its geohydrological impacts on non-monsoon crop pattern at watershed level through GIS development on climate informatics, land use informatics, hydro-informatics and agro-informatics. The Dabka watershed constitutes a part of the Kosi Basin in densely populated Lesser Himalaya, India in district Nainital has been selected for the case illustration. This reconnaissance study analyzed the climatic database for last three decades (1982-2012) and estimates that the average temperature and evaporation loss have been rising with the rate of 0.07 °C/yr and 4.03 mm/yr respectively whereas the average rainfall has been decreasing with the rate of 0.60 mm/yr. These rates of climate change increasing with mounting elevations. Consequently the existing microclimatic zones (sub-tropical, temperate and moist temperate) shifting towards higher altitudes and affecting the favorable conditions of the land use pattern and decreased the eco-friendly forest and vegetation cover. The land use degradation and high rate of deforestation (0.22 km2 or 1.5%/yr) leads to accelerate several hydrological problems during non-monsoon period (i.e. decreasing infiltration capacity of land surface, declining underground water level, drying up natural perennial springs and streams, decreasing irrigation water availability etc.). In order to that the non-monsoon crops yield has been decreasing with the rate of 0.60% each year as the results suggest that the average crop yield is just about 58 q/ha whereas twenty five to thirty year back it was recorded about 66 q/ha which is about 12% higher (8 q/ha) than existing yield. On the other hand the population increasing with the growth rate of 2% each year. Therefore, decreasing crop yield and increasing population raised food deficiency problem and the people adopting other occupations which ultimately affecting rural livelihood of the Himalaya.

  13. Climate change effects on plant biomass alter dominance patterns and community evenness in an experimental old-field ecosystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kardol, Paul [ORNL; Campany, Courtney E [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Souza, Lara [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Norby, Richard J [ORNL; Weltzin, Jake [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Classen, Aimee T [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)

    2010-01-01

    Atmospheric and climatic change can alter plant biomass production and plant community composition. However, we know little about how climate change-induced alterations in biomass production affect plant community composition. To better understand how climate change will alter both individual plant species and community biomass we manipulated atmospheric [CO2], air temperature and precipitation in a constructed old-field ecosystem. Specifically, we compared the responses of dominant and subdominant species to our treatments, and explored how changes in plant dominance patterns alter community evenness over two years. Our study resulted in four major findings: 1) All treatments, elevated [CO2], warming and increased precipitation, increased plant biomass and the effects were additive rather than interactive, 2) Plant species differed in their response to the treatments, resulting in shifts in the proportional biomass of individual species, which altered the plant community composition; however, the plant community response was largely driven by the responses of the dominant species, 3) Precipitation explained most of the variation in plant community composition among treatments, and 4) Changes in precipitation caused a shift in the dominant species proportional biomass that resulted in higher community evenness in the dry relative to wet treatments. Interestingly, compositional and evenness responses of the subdominant community to the treatments did not always follow the responses of the whole plant community. Our data suggest that changes in plant dominance patterns and community evenness are an important part of community responses to climate change, and generally, that compositional shifts can have important consequences for the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems.

  14. Trial timing and pattern-information analyses of fMRI data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeithamova, Dagmar; de Araujo Sanchez, Maria-Alejandra; Adke, Anisha

    2017-06-01

    Pattern-information approaches to fMRI data analysis are becoming increasingly popular but few studies to date have investigated experimental design optimization for these analyses. Here, we tested several designs that varied in the number of trials and trial timing within fixed duration scans while participants encoded images of animals and tools. Trial timing conditions with fixed onset-to-onset timing ranged from slow 12-s trials with two repetitions of each item to quick 6-s trials with four repetitions per item. We also tested a jittered version of the quick design with 4-8s trials. We assessed the effect of trial timing on three dependent measures: category-level (animals vs. tools) decoding accuracy using a multivoxel pattern analysis, item-level (e.g., cat vs. dog vs. lion) information estimates using pattern similarity analysis, and memory effects comparing pattern similarity scores across repetitions of individual items subsequently remembered vs. forgotten. For single trial estimates, category decoding was equal across all trial timing conditions while item-level information and memory effects were better detected using slow trial timing. When modeling events on an item-by-item basis across all repetitions of a given item, a larger number of quick, regularly spaced trials provided an advantage over fewer slow trials for category decoding while item-level information was comparable across conditions. Jittered and non-jittered versions of the quick trial timing did not differ significantly in any analysis. These results will help inform experimental design choices in future studies planning to employ pattern-information analyses and demonstrate that design optimization guidelines developed for univariate analyses of a few conditions are not necessarily optimal for pattern-information analyses and condition-rich designs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Study of Track Irregularity Time Series Calibration and Variation Pattern at Unit Section

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaolong Jia

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Focusing on problems existing in track irregularity time series data quality, this paper first presents abnormal data identification, data offset correction algorithm, local outlier data identification, and noise cancellation algorithms. And then proposes track irregularity time series decomposition and reconstruction through the wavelet decomposition and reconstruction approach. Finally, the patterns and features of track irregularity standard deviation data sequence in unit sections are studied, and the changing trend of track irregularity time series is discovered and described.

  16. Can animal habitat use patterns influence their vulnerability to extreme climate events? An estuarine sportfish case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucek, Ross E; Heithaus, Michael R; Santos, Rolando; Stevens, Philip; Rehage, Jennifer S

    2017-10-01

    Global climate forecasts predict changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (ECEs). The capacity for specific habitat patches within a landscape to modulate stressors from extreme climate events, and animal distribution throughout habitat matrices during events, could influence the degree of population level effects following the passage of ECEs. Here, we ask (i) does the intensity of stressors of an ECE vary across a landscape? And (ii) Do habitat use patterns of a mobile species influence their vulnerability to ECEs? Specifically, we measured how extreme cold spells might interact with temporal variability in habitat use to affect populations of a tropical, estuarine-dependent large-bodied fish Common Snook, within Everglades National Park estuaries (FL US). We examined temperature variation across the estuary during cold disturbances with different degrees of severity, including an extreme cold spell. Second, we quantified Snook distribution patterns when the passage of ECEs is most likely to occur from 2012 to 2016 using passive acoustic tracking. Our results revealed spatial heterogeneity in the intensity of temperature declines during cold disturbances, with some habitats being consistently 3-5°C colder than others. Surprisingly, Snook distributions during periods of greatest risk to experience an extreme cold event varied among years. During the winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 a greater proportion of Snook occurred in the colder habitats, while the winters of 2012-2013 and 2015-2016 featured more Snook observed in the warmest habitats. This study shows that Snook habitat use patterns could influence vulnerability to extreme cold events, however, whether Snook habitat use increases or decreases their vulnerability to disturbance depends on the year, creating temporally dynamic vulnerability. Faunal global change research should address the spatially explicit nature of extreme climate events and animal habitat use patterns to identify

  17. From climate change uncertainties to strategic options. Objectives, instruments, timing issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Philibert, C. [French Agency for Environment and Energy Management, Paris (France)

    1995-12-31

    The question of climate change is characterised by major uncertainties. For some, this means that no action should be undertaken for the time being. For others, forceful action is needed to avoid potentially disastrous consequences: targets and timetables for emission reductions must be agreed. This communication is an attempt to suggest a third alternative, with two main conclusions. The international decision process should focus on instruments and degrees of effort, rather than on `emission trajectories` (the evolution of emission levels over time), rather than on quantitative objectives tied to precise timetables. In this perspective action can start right away. (author)

  18. Neural code alterations and abnormal time patterns in Parkinson’s disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andres, Daniela Sabrina; Cerquetti, Daniel; Merello, Marcelo

    2015-04-01

    Objective. The neural code used by the basal ganglia is a current question in neuroscience, relevant for the understanding of the pathophysiology of Parkinson’s disease. While a rate code is known to participate in the communication between the basal ganglia and the motor thalamus/cortex, different lines of evidence have also favored the presence of complex time patterns in the discharge of the basal ganglia. To gain insight into the way the basal ganglia code information, we studied the activity of the globus pallidus pars interna (GPi), an output node of the circuit. Approach. We implemented the 6-hydroxydopamine model of Parkinsonism in Sprague-Dawley rats, and recorded the spontaneous discharge of single GPi neurons, in head-restrained conditions at full alertness. Analyzing the temporal structure function, we looked for characteristic scales in the neuronal discharge of the GPi. Main results. At a low-scale, we observed the presence of dynamic processes, which allow the transmission of time patterns. Conversely, at a middle-scale, stochastic processes force the use of a rate code. Regarding the time patterns transmitted, we measured the word length and found that it is increased in Parkinson’s disease. Furthermore, it showed a positive correlation with the frequency of discharge, indicating that an exacerbation of this abnormal time pattern length can be expected, as the dopamine depletion progresses. Significance. We conclude that a rate code and a time pattern code can co-exist in the basal ganglia at different temporal scales. However, their normal balance is progressively altered and replaced by pathological time patterns in Parkinson’s disease.

  19. Mandatory Nap Times and Group Napping Patterns in Child Care: An Observational Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staton, Sally L; Smith, Simon S; Hurst, Cameron; Pattinson, Cassandra L; Thorpe, Karen J

    2017-01-01

    Policy provision for naps is typical in child care settings, but there is variability in the practices employed. One practice that might modify children's early sleep patterns is the allocation of a mandatory nap time in which all children are required to lie on their beds without alternate activity permitted. There is currently limited evidence of the effects of such practices on children's napping patterns. This study examined the association between duration of mandatory nap times and group-level napping patterns in child care settings. Observations were undertaken in a community sample of 113 preschool rooms with a scheduled nap time (N = 2,114 children). Results showed that 83.5% of child care settings implemented a mandatory nap time (range = 15-145 min) while 14.2% provided alternate activities for children throughout the nap time period. Overall, 31% of children napped during nap times. Compared to rooms with ≤ 30 min of mandatory nap time, rooms with 31-60 min and > 60 min of mandatory nap time had a two-and-a-half and fourfold increase, respectively, in the proportion of children napping. Nap onset latency did not significantly differ across groups. Among preschool children, exposure to longer mandatory nap times in child care may increase incidence of napping.

  20. Temporal Patterns in Fine Particulate Matter Time Series in Beijing: A Calendar View

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jianzheng; Li, Jie; Li, Weifeng

    2016-08-01

    Extremely high fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration has become synonymous to Beijing, the capital of China, posing critical challenges to its sustainable development and leading to major public health concerns. In order to formulate mitigation measures and policies, knowledge on PM2.5 variation patterns should be obtained. While previous studies are limited either because of availability of data, or because of problematic a priori assumptions that PM2.5 concentration follows subjective seasonal, monthly, or weekly patterns, our study aims to reveal the data on a daily basis through visualization rather than imposing subjective periodic patterns upon the data. To achieve this, we conduct two time-series cluster analyses on full-year PM2.5 data in Beijing in 2014, and provide an innovative calendar visualization of PM2.5 measurements throughout the year. Insights from the analysis on temporal variation of PM2.5 concentration show that there are three diurnal patterns and no weekly patterns; seasonal patterns exist but they do not follow a strict temporal division. These findings advance current understanding on temporal patterns in PM2.5 data and offer a different perspective which can help with policy formulation on PM2.5 mitigation.

  1. Terrestrial carbon turnover time constraints on future carbon cycle-climate feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, N.; Carvalhais, N.; Reichstein, M.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the terrestrial carbon cycle-climate feedback is essential to reduce the uncertainties resulting from the between model spread in prognostic simulations (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). One perspective is to investigate which factors control the variability of the mean residence times of carbon in the land surface, and how these may change in the future, consequently affecting the response of the terrestrial ecosystems to changes in climate as well as other environmental conditions. Carbon turnover time of the whole ecosystem is a dynamic parameter that represents how fast the carbon cycle circulates. Turnover time τ is an essential property for understanding the carbon exchange between the land and the atmosphere. Although current Earth System Models (ESMs), supported by GVMs for the description of the land surface, show a strong convergence in GPP estimates, but tend to show a wide range of simulated turnover times (Carvalhais, 2014). Thus, there is an emergent need of constraints on the projected response of the balance between terrestrial carbon fluxes and carbon stock which will give us more certainty in response of carbon cycle to climate change. However, the difficulty of obtaining such a constraint is partly due to lack of observational data on temporal change of terrestrial carbon stock. Since more new datasets of carbon stocks such as SoilGrid (Hengl, et al., 2017) and fluxes such as GPP (Jung, et al., 2017) are available, improvement in estimating turnover time can be achieved. In addition, previous study ignored certain aspects such as the relationship between τ and nutrients, fires, etc. We would like to investigate τ and its role in carbon cycle by combining observatinoal derived datasets and state-of-the-art model simulations.

  2. Climate tolerances and trait choices shape continental patterns of urban tree biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    G. Darrel Jenerette; Lorraine W. Clarke; Meghan L. Avolio; Diane E. Pataki; Thomas W. Gillespie; Stephanie Pincetl; Dave J. Nowak; Lucy R. Hutyra; Melissa McHale; Joseph P. McFadden; Michael Alonzo

    2016-01-01

    Aim. We propose and test a climate tolerance and trait choice hypothesis of urban macroecological variation in which strong filtering associated with low winter temperatures restricts urban biodiversity while weak filtering associated with warmer temperatures and irrigation allows dispersal of species from a global source pool, thereby...

  3. Climatic conditions cause complex patterns of covariation between demographic traits in a long-lived raptor

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herfindal, Ivar; van de Pol, Martijn; Nielsen, Jan Tøttrup; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Møller, Anders Pape

    2015-01-01

    1.Environmental variation can induce life history changes that can last over a large part of the lifetime of an organism. If multiple demographic traits are affected, expected changes in climate may influence environmental covariances among traits in a complex manner. Thus, examining the

  4. Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hekkenberg, M.; Moll, H.C.; Schoot Uiterkamp, A.J.M.

    2009-01-01

    Energy demand depends on outdoor temperature in a 'u' shaped fashion. Various studies have used this temperature dependence to investigate the effects of climate change on energy demand. Such studies contain implicit or explicit assumptions to describe expected socio-economic changes that may affect

  5. Global patterns of plant root colonization intensity by mycorrhizal fungi explained by climate and soil chemistry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soudzilovskaia, N.A.; Douma, J.C.; Akhmetzhanova, A.A.; Bodegom, van P.M.; Cornwell, W.K.; Moens, E.J.; Treseder, K.K.; Tibbett, M.; Wang, Y.P.; Cornelissen, J.H.C.

    2015-01-01

    Aim Most vascular plants on Earth form mycorrhizae, a symbiotic relationship between plants and fungi. Despite the broad recognition of the importance of mycorrhizae for global carbon and nutrient cycling, we do not know how soil and climate variables relate to the intensity of colonization of plant

  6. Global patterns of plant root colonization intensity by mycorrhizal fungi explained by climate and soil chemistry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soudzilovskaia, N.A.; Douma, J.C.; Akhmetzhanova, A.A.; van Bodegom, P.M.; Cornwell, W.K.; Moens, E.J.; Treseder, K.K.; Tibbett, M.; Wang, Y.-P.; Cornelissen, J.H.C.

    2015-01-01

    Aim: Most vascular plants on Earth form mycorrhizae, a symbiotic relationship between plants and fungi. Despite the broad recognition of the importance of mycorrhizae for global carbon and nutrient cycling, we do not know how soil and climate variables relate to the intensity of colonization of

  7. Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick Gonzalez; Ronald P. Neilson; James M. Lenihan; Raymond J. Drapek

    2010-01-01

    Climate change threatens to shift vegetation, disrupting ecosystems and damaging human well-being. Field observations in boreal, temperate and tropical ecosystems have detected biome changes in the 20th century, yet a lack of spatial data on vulnerability hinders organizations that manage natural resources from identifying priority areas for adaptation measures. We...

  8. Local perceptions of climate change impacts and migration patterns in Malé, Maldives

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Stojanov, R.; Duží, Barbora; Kelman, I.; Němec, D.; Procházka, D.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 183, č. 4 (2017), s. 370-385 ISSN 0016-7398 Institutional support: RVO:68145535 Keywords : Maldives * climate change impacts * migration * risk management * quantitative survey Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography OBOR OECD: 50701 Impact factor: 3.132, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geoj.12177/abstract

  9. Local perceptions of climate change impacts and migration patterns in Malé, Maldives

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Stojanov, R.; Duží, Barbora; Kelman, I.; Němec, D.; Procházka, D.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 183, č. 4 (2017), s. 370-385 ISSN 0016-7398 Institutional support: RVO:68145535 Keywords : Maldives * climate change impacts * migration * risk management * quantitative survey Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography OBOR OECD: Cultural and economic geography Impact factor: 3.132, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geoj.12177/abstract

  10. Impact of climate change on snow melt driven runoff timing over the Alpine region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppola, Erika; Raffaele, Francesca; Giorgi, Filippo

    2016-08-01

    We investigate the climate change impact on snowmelt-driven runoff (SDR) over the Alpine region using the output from two Med-CORDEX and two EURO-CORDEX regional climate model projections (RCP8.5 scenario) at two resolutions (12, 50 km) driven by a sub-set of the CMIP5 GCMs. Comparison with the European Water Archive observed runoff dataset (242 stations) over the Alps shows a good performance by the higher resolution models in representing present day SDR, with the lower resolution simulations being less accurate in capturing the SDR timing. In the future projections all the models show a temperature increase of up to 4° by the end of the 21st century throughout the Alps and this leads to an anticipation of SDR timing throughout the year that can span from 1 to 3 months depending on the model horizontal resolution. These timing changes are associated with changes in snow cover modulated by the complex Alpine topography. In fact, model resolution plays a critical role in regulating the magnitude, timing and spatial distribution of the response of snow cover and SDR to warming. We find that the accurate simulation of changes in runoff timing requires a high resolution representation of the Alpine topography, and can be important for water storage regulations concerning energy production, agriculture and domestic use.

  11. Preschoolers´ Physical Activity and Time on Task During a Mastery Motivational Climate and Free Play

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle D Wadsworth

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the present study was to determine the effect of a structured, mastery motivation physical education climate and an unstructured physical activity climate on time spent on task in a small sample of preschool children. Children enrolled in a public, federal-subsidized childcare center (N= 12 participated in two 45 minute physical activity programs within the school day. The structured climate consisted of a biweekly program of motor skill instruction that was based upon the key principles of a mastery motivational climate. The unstructured program was a daily 45 minute free play environment. Actigraph accelerometers monitored children’s participation in physical activity and time-on task was observed by a momentary time sampling technique. Results showed that time on-task significantly improved following a mastery motivational climate, and children spent 36% of their time in moderate-to-vigorous activity in this climate.  In contrast, time on-task did not significantly improve following participation in a free play environment and participants spent a majority of their time in sedentary behavior and accumulated no vigorous physical activity. Our results indicate that participation in physical activity impacts a preschooler’s ability to stay on task and the amount of physical activity accumulated during physical activity programming is dependent upon the climate delivered.

  12. Influences of climate, fire, and topography on contemporary age structure patterns of Douglas-fir at 205 old forest sites in western Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathan J. Poage; Peter J. Weisberg; Peter C. Impara; John C. Tappeiner; Thomas S. Sensenig

    2009-01-01

    Knowledge of forest development is basic to understanding the ecology, dynamics, and management of forest ecosystems. We hypothesized that the age structure patterns of Douglas-fir at 205 old forest sites in western Oregon are extremely variable with long and (or) multiple establishment periods common, and that these patterns reflect variation in regional-scale climate...

  13. Spike-timing-dependent learning rule to encode spatiotemporal patterns in a network of spiking neurons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshioka, Masahiko

    2002-01-01

    We study associative memory neural networks based on the Hodgkin-Huxley type of spiking neurons. We introduce the spike-timing-dependent learning rule, in which the time window with the negative part as well as the positive part is used to describe the biologically plausible synaptic plasticity. The learning rule is applied to encode a number of periodical spatiotemporal patterns, which are successfully reproduced in the periodical firing pattern of spiking neurons in the process of memory retrieval. The global inhibition is incorporated into the model so as to induce the gamma oscillation. The occurrence of gamma oscillation turns out to give appropriate spike timings for memory retrieval of discrete type of spatiotemporal pattern. The theoretical analysis to elucidate the stationary properties of perfect retrieval state is conducted in the limit of an infinite number of neurons and shows the good agreement with the result of numerical simulations. The result of this analysis indicates that the presence of the negative and positive parts in the form of the time window contributes to reduce the size of crosstalk term, implying that the time window with the negative and positive parts is suitable to encode a number of spatiotemporal patterns. We draw some phase diagrams, in which we find various types of phase transitions with change of the intensity of global inhibition.

  14. Spatiotemporal Mining of Time-Series Remote Sensing Images Based on Sequential Pattern Mining

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, H. C.; He, G. J.; Zhang, X. M.; Jiang, W.; Ling, S. G.

    2015-07-01

    With the continuous development of satellite techniques, it is now possible to acquire a regular series of images concerning a given geographical zone with both high accuracy and low cost. Research on how best to effectively process huge volumes of observational data obtained on different dates for a specific geographical zone, and to exploit the valuable information regarding land cover contained in these images has received increasing interest from the remote sensing community. In contrast to traditional land cover change measures using pair-wise comparisons that emphasize the compositional or configurational changes between dates, this research focuses on the analysis of the temporal sequence of land cover dynamics, which refers to the succession of land cover types for a given area over more than two observational periods. Using a time series of classified Landsat images, ranging from 2006 to 2011, a sequential pattern mining method was extended to this spatiotemporal context to extract sets of connected pixels sharing similar temporal evolutions. The resultant sequential patterns could be selected (or not) based on the range of support values. These selected patterns were used to explore the spatial compositions and temporal evolutions of land cover change within the study region. Experimental results showed that continuous patterns that represent consistent land cover over time appeared as quite homogeneous zones, which agreed with our domain knowledge. Discontinuous patterns that represent land cover change trajectories were dominated by the transition from vegetation to bare land, especially during 2009-2010. This approach quantified land cover changes in terms of the percentage area affected and mapped the spatial distribution of these changes. Sequential pattern mining has been used for string mining or itemset mining in transactions analysis. The expected novel significance of this study is the generalization of the application of the sequential pattern

  15. Earthwatch and the HSBC Climate Partnership: Linking climate change and forests management one citizen scientist at a time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stover, D. B.; Jones, A.; Kusek, K.; Bebber, D.; Phillips, R.; Campbell, J.

    2010-12-01

    Earthwatch has engaged more than 90,000 citizen scientists in long-term research studies since its founding in 1971. One of its newer research and engagement programs is the HSBC Climate Partnership, a five-year global program on climate change to inspire action by individuals, businesses and governments (2007-2012). In this unique NGO-business partnership, Earthwatch has implemented five forest research-focused climate centers in the US, UK, Brazil, India and China. At each center, a team of scientists—supported by HSBC banking employees and local citizen scientists—is gathering data to determine how temperate and tropical forests are affected by changes in climate and human activity. Results are establishing baseline data to empower forest managers, conservationists and communities with the information they need to better manage forests within a changing climate. A critical component of the program is the engagement of 2,200 corporate HSBC employees who spend two weeks out of the office at one of the regional climate centers. They work alongside leading scientists to perform forest research by day, and participate each evening in an interactive education program on the ecological and socioeconomic impacts of climate change—including how climate change impacts HSBC’s bottom line. Program participants are empowered and have successfully developed sustainability projects they implement back in their office, homes and communities that furthers corporate and public commitment to sustainability and combating the effects of climate change. In addition to the corporate engagement model, Earthwatch has successfully engaged scores of local community stakeholders in the HSBC Climate Partnership, including teachers who report back to their classrooms “live from the field,” reporters and other business/NGO leaders in modified one week versions of the field program. New models of citizen science engagement are currently under development, with best practices and

  16. North American Rocky Mountain Hydroclimate: Holocene patterns and variability at multi-decadal to millennial time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finney, B.; Anderson, L.; Berkelhammer, M. B.; Barron, J. A.; Steinman, B. A.; Abbott, M. B.

    2015-12-01

    A network of western North American lake sediment isotope records (calcium carbonate-δ18O) developed during the past decade provides substantial evidence of Pacific ocean-atmosphere forcing of precipitation variability during the Holocene. We present an overview of the eighteen lake carbonate-δ18O records located in the North American Rocky Mountains with a new compilation of modern lake water isotope measurements to characterize their sensitivity to variations in precipitation-δ18O and fractionation effects by evaporation. Comparative analysis of the carbonate-δ18O records that reflect precipitation isotope (δ18O) values (i.e., precipitation "isometers") indicates a sequence of time-varying in-phase and antiphase patterns between northern and southern regions during the Holocene that provide evidence for a highly non-stationary influence of Pacific ocean-atmosphere processes on the hydroclimate of western North America. We identify a prominent precipitation-δ18O dipole, which was sustained for ~2000 years between ~3.5 and 1.5 ka. The dipole contrasts with divergent earlier Holocene patterns and appears to indicate the onset of linkages between northern and tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere dynamics as we know them today. These observations are informed by previous research on North Pacific precipitation-δ18O. Further investigation of short (observational) and long (Holocene) time scale patterns are needed to improve our understanding of the processes that 1) drive regional precipitation-δ18O responses to Pacific Ocean-atmosphere variability, and 2) cause varying internal ocean-atmosphere responses to external climate forcing.

  17. Tree-ring growth patterns and climatic signals along a vertical transect of larch sites in the Simplon and Rhône Valleys (Switzerland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riechelmann, Dana F. C.; Esper, Jan

    2017-04-01

    State-of-the-art millennial long temperature reconstructions from the European Alps integrate wood samples of Larix decidua Mill. from the Lötschental and Simplon regions in Switzerland (Büntgen et al., 2005; 2006). Some of the oldest samples that enable the extension of the time-series back into the first millennium AD are obtained from old buildings in Simplon Village, through the precise location of these samples and the elevation of sampling sites remain unknown. We here evaluate the growth characteristics of larch tree-ring width data along a vertical transect in the Simplon and Rhône valleys. 330 trees from nine sites in 985, 1100, 1400, 1575, 1710, 1712, 1900, 2020, and 2150 m asl have been sampled and analysed for their climate signals. The results indicate a stronger temperature signal in the tree-ring width with increasing elevation. The lower the sites the more a drought signal is imprinted in the ring width data. The intermediate site at 1400 m asl does not show any pronounced climate signal. A comparison of growth patterns of living-tree sites with samples from the historical buildings in Simplon Village (Riechelmann et al., 2013) indicates the construction timber to origin from intermediate to higher elevations. We therefore do not expect strong temperature signal from these timbers. References: Büntgen, U., Esper, J., Frank, D.C., Nicolussi, K., Schmidhalter, M., 2005. A 1052-year tree-ring proxy for Alpine summer temperatures. Climate Dynamics 25: 141-153. Büntgen, U., Frank, D.C., Nievergelt, D., Esper J., 2006. Summer temperature variations in the European Alps, A.D. 755-2004. Journal of Climate 19: 5606-5623. Riechelmann, D.F.C., Schmidhalter, M., Büntgen, U., Esper, J., 2013. Extending a high-elevation larch ring width chronology from the Simplon region in the Swiss Alps over the past millenium. TRACE 11:103-108.

  18. Sensitivity of isoprene emissions estimated using MEGAN to the time resolution of input climate data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Ashworth

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the effect of varying the temporal resolution of the input climate data on isoprene emission estimates generated by the community emissions model MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature. The estimated total global annual emissions of isoprene is reduced from 766 Tg y−1 when using hourly input data to 746 Tg y−1 (a reduction of 3% for daily average input data and 711 Tg y−1 (down 7% for monthly average input data. The impact on a local scale can be more significant with reductions of up to 55% at some locations when using monthly average data compared with using hourly data. If the daily and monthly average temperature data are used without the imposition of a diurnal cycle the global emissions estimates fall by 27–32%, and local annual emissions by up to 77%. A similar pattern emerges if hourly isoprene fluxes are considered. In order to better simulate and predict isoprene emission rates using MEGAN, we show it is necessary to use temperature and radiation data resolved to one hour. Given the importance of land-atmosphere interactions in the Earth system and the low computational cost of the MEGAN algorithms, we recommend that chemistry-climate models and the new generation of Earth system models input biogenic emissions at the highest temporal resolution possible.

  19. Do changes in the frequency, magnitude and timing of extreme climatic events threaten the population viability of coastal birds?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Pol, Martijn; Ens, Bruno J.; Heg, Dik; Brouwer, Lyanne; Krol, Johan; Maier, Martin; Exo, Klaus-Michael; Oosterbeek, Kees; Lok, Tamar; Eising, Corine M.; Koffijberg, Kees

    P>1. Climate change encompasses changes in both the means and the extremes of climatic variables, but the population consequences of the latter are intrinsically difficult to study. 2. We investigated whether the frequency, magnitude and timing of rare but catastrophic flooding events have changed

  20. Deposition of Asian Dust in the Tahoe Basin and the Impact of Climate Patterns on Deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snyder, Jason

    particle concentrations there, but the particles themselves carried along with them a suite of bioactive nutrients including phosphorus. Phosphorus is of particular importance because of Lake Tahoe being a phosphorus-limited lake and atmospheric deposition of particles accounting for 26% of the phosphorus loading into the Tahoe basin. Aerosol optical depth data from the GOCART model and UV aerosol index data from the Earth Probe satellite identified additional aerosol deposition peaks of Asian origin particularly from the Gobi and Taklimakan deserts along with the Yellow River Basin near Beijing. Based on the GOCART and satellite data, aerosol dust deposition into the Lake Tahoe basin from Asian soils can be 1.31 times greater than those recorded in 2006 by the DRUM data. Such events had occurred in April 2001 and April 2005. The impact of climate variation on Asian dust transport toward Lake Tahoe was also analyzed primarily focusing on the impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation and shifts in the Aleutian Low on Asian dust transport. Based on these analyses, Asian dust transport is at its maximum when propagating MJO related convection is in the central Pacific Ocean and the Aleutian Low is over the Western Alaska. Both of these scenarios are associated with increased westerly wind flows and weaker high pressure off the West Coast of North America. This is instrumental is an efficient transport of dust plumes across the Pacific Ocean and further south toward California.

  1. Regression and regression analysis time series prediction modeling on climate data of quetta, pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jafri, Y.Z.; Kamal, L.

    2007-01-01

    Various statistical techniques was used on five-year data from 1998-2002 of average humidity, rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The relationships to regression analysis time series (RATS) were developed for determining the overall trend of these climate parameters on the basis of which forecast models can be corrected and modified. We computed the coefficient of determination as a measure of goodness of fit, to our polynomial regression analysis time series (PRATS). The correlation to multiple linear regression (MLR) and multiple linear regression analysis time series (MLRATS) were also developed for deciphering the interdependence of weather parameters. Spearman's rand correlation and Goldfeld-Quandt test were used to check the uniformity or non-uniformity of variances in our fit to polynomial regression (PR). The Breusch-Pagan test was applied to MLR and MLRATS, respectively which yielded homoscedasticity. We also employed Bartlett's test for homogeneity of variances on a five-year data of rainfall and humidity, respectively which showed that the variances in rainfall data were not homogenous while in case of humidity, were homogenous. Our results on regression and regression analysis time series show the best fit to prediction modeling on climatic data of Quetta, Pakistan. (author)

  2. Characterization of space-time rainfall patterns over Switzerland based on high-resolution radar images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benoit, Lionel; Mariethoz, Gregoire; Vrac, Mathieu

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall is generated by diverse and complex processes that produce rain fields with a large variability of patterns. High-resolution measurements of rainfall, provided for instance by networks of terrestrial weather radars, allow observing the spatial variability of rainfall patterns and its temporal evolution. The characterization of these space-time rainfall patterns is important for both the understanding of rain generation processes and the study of environmental impacts of rainfall on hydrology, erosion or plants growth, among others. Here we propose to study rainfall patterns using image processing methods on high-resolution radar images (1km x 1km x 1min) over Switzerland. The time series of radar images is first segmented in rain events. Then, the spatial structure of each rain event is characterized by computing statistics over several geometrical indices extracted from radar images, by adapting to the context of mid-latitude rainfalls the indices proposed by Aghakouchak, Nasrollahi et al. (2011) and Zick and Matyas (2016) for tropical rainfall characterization. Finally, the dynamics of rainfall patterns is characterized by estimating rain advection through image correlation, and by quantifying the temporal morphing of spatial patterns in a Lagrangian reference frame, where radar images are re-projected to cancel out rain advection. Two years of data (2015 - 2016) are used to investigate the variability of rainfall patterns over Switzerland. Typical values of the indicators measuring rainfall patterns and their dynamics are extracted for different areas, namely the Jura Mountain, the Swiss Plateau and the Alps. These measures of rainfall variability could be subsequently used to parameterize local weather generators or to investigate the relationships between rainfall patterns and atmospheric synoptic conditions. References: Aghakouchak, A., N. Nasrollahi, J. Li, B. Imam and S. Sorooshian (2011). "Geometrical Characterization of Precipitation Patterns

  3. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) East Atlantic/ Western Russia Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the East Atlantic/ Western Russia teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated...

  4. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) East Pacific/ North Pacific Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the East Pacific/ North Pacific teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated...

  5. The influence of geographic and climate factors on the timing of dengue epidemics in Perú, 1994-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Broutin Hélène

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease that affects between 50 and 100 million people each year. Increasing our understanding of the heterogeneous transmission patterns of dengue at different spatial scales could have considerable public health value by guiding intervention strategies. Methods Based on the weekly number of dengue cases in Perú by province, we investigated the association between dengue incidence during the period 1994-2008 and demographic and climate factors across geographic regions of the country. Results Our findings support the presence of significant differences in the timing of dengue epidemics between jungle and coastal regions, with differences significantly associated with the timing of the seasonal cycle of mean temperature. Conclusions Dengue is highly persistent in jungle areas of Perú where epidemics peak most frequently around March when rainfall is abundant. Differences in the timing of dengue epidemics in jungle and coastal regions are significantly associated with the seasonal temperature cycle. Our results suggest that dengue is frequently imported into coastal regions through infective sparks from endemic jungle areas and/or cities of other neighboring endemic countries, where propitious environmental conditions promote year-round mosquito breeding sites. If jungle endemic areas are responsible for multiple dengue introductions into coastal areas, our findings suggest that curtailing the transmission of dengue in these most persistent areas could lead to significant reductions in dengue incidence in coastal areas where dengue incidence typically reaches low levels during the dry season.

  6. Effects of climate and fire timing on nitrogen cycling and retention in chaparral watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanan, E. J.; Schimel, J.; Tague, C.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change models predict that interannual rainfall variability will increase in California over the next several decades; these changes are expected to alter fuel characteristics and fire regimes in chaparral. Fires uncouple N mobilization and uptake by increasing nitrification and destroying plant biomass. Following fire, heavy winter rains can leach N into streams, particularly from slopes that have been denuded. The extent to which N is transported from burned slopes to streams depends on how rapidly soil microbes metabolize N into mobile forms such as NO3-, and how rapidly recovering plants take up mineral N. However, the long-term impacts of a changing climate and fire regime on N dynamics remain unknown. To project the effects of these drivers, we combined empirical measurements with the ecohydrologic model RHESSys. Specifically, we measured inorganic N concentrations and microbial biomass in chaparral soils that burned 1, 4, 20 and 40 years prior to sampling. We then experimentally adjusted NH4+ concentration and pH in a factorial design, and incubated the treated soils for 8 weeks. Nitrification was highest in soils collected from the most recently burned sites, and was most powerfully constrained by NH4+. However, when NH4+was sufficiently high, pH determined the relative proportion of inorganic N that was nitrified. After incorporating these relationships into the RHESSys framework, we modeled mineralization, nitrification, N leaching, NPP, and plant uptake under a range of climate and fire timing scenarios. We considered a range of scenarios where fires were imposed either at the beginning or end of the growing season followed by 15 years of recovery, and considered 15 possible climate trajectories. Modeling results suggest that chaparral systems are vulnerable to rapid nitrification and leaching immediately after fire, however recovering plants rapidly immobilize soluble N under most climate scenarios. The strongest variability in NPP and plant N

  7. Spatiotemporal patterns of drought at various time scales in Shandong Province of Eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuo, Depeng; Cai, Siyang; Xu, Zongxue; Li, Fulin; Sun, Wenchao; Yang, Xiaojing; Kan, Guangyuan; Liu, Pin

    2018-01-01

    The temporal variations and spatial patterns of drought in Shandong Province of Eastern China were investigated by calculating the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-month time scales. Monthly precipitation and air temperature time series during the period 1960-2012 were collected at 23 meteorological stations uniformly distributed over the region. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to explore the temporal trends of precipitation, air temperature, and the SPEI drought index. S-mode principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to identify the spatial patterns of drought. The results showed that an insignificant decreasing trend in annual total precipitation was detected at most stations, a significant increase of annual average air temperature occurred at all the 23 stations, and a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI was mainly detected at the coastal stations for all the time scales. The frequency of occurrence of extreme and severe drought at different time scales generally increased with decades; higher frequency and larger affected area of extreme and severe droughts occurred as the time scale increased, especially for the northwest of Shandong Province and Jiaodong peninsular. The spatial pattern of drought for SPEI-1 contains three regions: eastern Jiaodong Peninsular and northwestern and southern Shandong. As the time scale increased to 3, 6, and 12 months, the order of the three regions was transformed into another as northwestern Shandong, eastern Jiaodong Peninsular, and southern Shandong. For SPEI-24, the location identified by REOF1 was slightly shifted from northwestern Shandong to western Shandong, and REOF2 and REOF3 identified another two weak patterns in the south edge and north edge of Jiaodong Peninsular, respectively. The potential causes of drought and the impact of drought on agriculture in the study area have also been discussed. The temporal variations and spatial patterns

  8. Encoding sensory and motor patterns as time-invariant trajectories in recurrent neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goudar, Vishwa; Buonomano, Dean V

    2018-03-14

    Much of the information the brain processes and stores is temporal in nature-a spoken word or a handwritten signature, for example, is defined by how it unfolds in time. However, it remains unclear how neural circuits encode complex time-varying patterns. We show that by tuning the weights of a recurrent neural network (RNN), it can recognize and then transcribe spoken digits. The model elucidates how neural dynamics in cortical networks may resolve three fundamental challenges: first, encode multiple time-varying sensory and motor patterns as stable neural trajectories; second, generalize across relevant spatial features; third, identify the same stimuli played at different speeds-we show that this temporal invariance emerges because the recurrent dynamics generate neural trajectories with appropriately modulated angular velocities. Together our results generate testable predictions as to how recurrent networks may use different mechanisms to generalize across the relevant spatial and temporal features of complex time-varying stimuli. © 2018, Goudar et al.

  9. Time budgets and activity patterns of sub-Antarctic fur seals at ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... location and distribution on site, and the prevailing weather conditions influence the pattern of interaction and allocation of time to the various activities in A. tropicalis. The predominance of inactivity is considered to be a behavioural thermoregulatory response to limit endogenous heat production as is energy conservation ...

  10. Location, Timing, and Social Structure Patterns Related to Physical Activity Participation in Weight Loss Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gay, Jennifer L.; Trevarthen, Grace

    2013-01-01

    Less than half of the adults in the United States meet national guidelines for physical activity. Physical activity programs can induce short-term improvements in physical activity. To develop effective interventions, researchers and practitioners should consider the timing, location, and social structure patterns of participants. Using a pretest,…

  11. Gait Patterns in Twins with Cerebral Palsy: Similarities and Development over Time after Multilevel Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Drongelen, Stefan; Dreher, Thomas; Heitzmann, Daniel W. W.; Wolf, Sebastian I.

    2013-01-01

    To examine gait patterns and gait quality, 7 twins with cerebral palsy were measured preoperatively and after surgical intervention. The aim was to study differences and/or similarities in gait between twins, the influence of personal characteristics and birth conditions, and to describe the development of gait over time after single event…

  12. Pattern of Accesses over Time in an Online Asynchronous Forum and Academic Achievements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canal, Luisa; Ghislandi, Patrizia; Micciolo, Rocco

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the participation of 119 students in an online asynchronous forum as part of an academic course on statistical methods was evaluated. The pattern of accesses during the course was analyzed by means of the cumulative mean function. Taking into account the times (hours) at which accesses occurred, it is possible to achieve more…

  13. Reconstructing past species assemblages reveals the changing patterns and drivers of extinction through time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromham, Lindell; Lanfear, Robert; Cassey, Phillip; Gibb, Gillian; Cardillo, Marcel

    2012-10-07

    Predicting future species extinctions from patterns of past extinctions or current threat status relies on the assumption that the taxonomic and biological selectivity of extinction is consistent through time. If the driving forces of extinction change through time, this assumption may be unrealistic. Testing the consistency of extinction patterns between the past and the present has been difficult, because the phylogenetically explicit methods used to model present-day extinction risk typically cannot be applied to the data from the fossil record. However, the detailed historical and fossil records of the New Zealand avifauna provide a unique opportunity to reconstruct a complete, large faunal assemblage for different periods in the past. Using the first complete phylogeny of all known native New Zealand bird species, both extant and extinct, we show how the taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity of extinction, and biological correlates of extinction, change from the pre-human period through Polynesian and European occupation, to the present. These changes can be explained both by changes in primary threatening processes, and by the operation of extinction filter effects. The variable patterns of extinction through time may confound attempts to identify risk factors that apply across time periods, and to infer future species declines from past extinction patterns and current threat status.

  14. Sharing Time and the Poetic Patterning of Caribbean Independence: The Narrative Architecture of Voice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van der Aa, Jef

    2013-01-01

    This article discusses the narrative architecture and interactional uptake of a school child's story about independence in Barbados during sharing time. It is found that an institutional focus on standard resources impacts both teachers' and children's sociolinguistic behavior. Ethnopoetic analysis brings out the child's patterned use of narrative…

  15. From sedentary time to sedentary patterns: accelerometer data reduction decisions in youth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chin A Paw, M.J.M.; de Niet, M.; Verloigne, M.; de Bourdeaudhuij, I.; Brug, J.; Altenburg, T.M.

    2014-01-01

    Aim: This study aims to establish evidence-based accelerometer data reduction criteria to accurately assess total sedentary time and sedentary patterns in children. Methods: Participants (n = 1057 European children; 9-13 yrs) were invited to wear an accelerometer for at least 6 consecutive days. We

  16. Triclustering Georeferenced Time Series for Analyzing Patterns of Intra-Annual Variability in Temperature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wu, Xiaojing; Zurita-Milla, R.; Izquierdo Verdiguier, E.; Kraak, M.J.

    Clustering is often used to explore patterns in georeferenced time series (GTS). Most clustering studies, however, only analyze GTS from one or two dimension(s) and are not capable of the simultaneous analysis of the data from three dimensions: spatial, temporal, and any third (e.g., attribute)

  17. Distribution patterns of epilithic diatoms along climatic, spatial and physicochemical variables in the Baltic Sea

    OpenAIRE

    Virta, Leena; Soininen, Janne

    2017-01-01

    Abstract The species richness and community composition of the diatom communities were studied in the Baltic Sea, Northern Europe, to enhance knowledge about the diversity of these organisms in a brackish water ecosystem. Many organisms in the Baltic Sea have been studied extensively, but studies investigating littoral diatoms are scarce. The goal of this study was to examine the importance of climatic, spatial and water physicochemical variables as drivers of epilithic diato...

  18. Space-time dependence between energy sources and climate related energy production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engeland, Kolbjorn; Borga, Marco; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Tøfte, Lena; Warland, Geir

    2014-05-01

    The European Renewable Energy Directive adopted in 2009 focuses on achieving a 20% share of renewable energy in the EU overall energy mix by 2020. A major part of renewable energy production is related to climate, called "climate related energy" (CRE) production. CRE production systems (wind, solar, and hydropower) are characterized by a large degree of intermittency and variability on both short and long time scales due to the natural variability of climate variables. The main strategies to handle the variability of CRE production include energy-storage, -transport, -diversity and -information (smart grids). The three first strategies aim to smooth out the intermittency and variability of CRE production in time and space whereas the last strategy aims to provide a more optimal interaction between energy production and demand, i.e. to smooth out the residual load (the difference between demand and production). In order to increase the CRE share in the electricity system, it is essential to understand the space-time co-variability between the weather variables and CRE production under both current and future climates. This study presents a review of the literature that searches to tackle these problems. It reveals that the majority of studies deals with either a single CRE source or with the combination of two CREs, mostly wind and solar. This may be due to the fact that the most advanced countries in terms of wind equipment have also very little hydropower potential (Denmark, Ireland or UK, for instance). Hydropower is characterized by both a large storage capacity and flexibility in electricity production, and has therefore a large potential for both balancing and storing energy from wind- and solar-power. Several studies look at how to better connect regions with large share of hydropower (e.g., Scandinavia and the Alps) to regions with high shares of wind- and solar-power (e.g., green battery North-Sea net). Considering time scales, various studies consider wind

  19. Identification of the Color Parameters in Pattern Recognition in Real-time Security Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Dronov

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Problems of identification of the color parameters of moving raster image objects in pattern recognition in modern security systems, which include real-time video-surveillance systems, are declared in this paper. The description of algorithms of identification of the color parameters in frames coming from real-time video streams is given. The practical application of the developed algorithms in program modules of corresponding video systems is demonstrated.

  20. Real-time pattern recognition using an optical generalized Hough transform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, Ariel; Flores, Jorge L; Alonso, Julia R; Ferrari, José A

    2015-12-20

    We present some pattern recognition applications of a generalized optical Hough transform and the temporal multiplexing strategies for dynamic scale and orientation-variant detection. Unlike computer-based implementations of the Hough transform, in principle its optical implementation does not impose restrictions on the execution time or on the resolution of the images or frame rate of the videos to be processed, which is potentially useful for real-time applications. Validation experiments are presented.

  1. Compounded effects of climate change and habitat alteration shift patterns of butterfly diversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forister, Matthew L; McCall, Andrew C; Sanders, Nathan J; Fordyce, James A; Thorne, James H; O'Brien, Joshua; Waetjen, David P; Shapiro, Arthur M

    2010-02-02

    Climate change and habitat destruction have been linked to global declines in vertebrate biodiversity, including mammals, amphibians, birds, and fishes. However, invertebrates make up the vast majority of global species richness, and the combined effects of climate change and land use on invertebrates remain poorly understood. Here we present 35 years of data on 159 species of butterflies from 10 sites along an elevational gradient spanning 0-2,775 m in a biodiversity hotspot, the Sierra Nevada Mountains of Northern California. Species richness has declined at half of the sites, with the most severe reductions at the lowest elevations, where habitat destruction is greatest. At higher elevations, we observed clear upward shifts in the elevational ranges of species, consistent with the influence of global warming. Taken together, these long-term data reveal the interacting negative effects of human-induced changes on both the climate and habitat available to butterfly species in California. Furthermore, the decline of ruderal, disturbance-associated species indicates that the traditional focus of conservation efforts on more specialized and less dispersive species should be broadened to include entire faunas when estimating and predicting the effects of pervasive stressors.

  2. Impacts of climate change on cropping patterns in a tropical, sub-humid watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duku, Confidence; Zwart, Sander J; Hein, Lars

    2018-01-01

    In recent decades, there have been substantial increases in crop production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a result of higher yields, increased cropping intensity, expansion of irrigated cropping systems, and rainfed cropland expansion. Yet, to date much of the research focus of the impact of climate change on crop production in the coming decades has been on crop yield responses. In this study, we analyse the impact of climate change on the potential for increasing rainfed cropping intensity through sequential cropping and irrigation expansion in central Benin. Our approach combines hydrological modelling and scenario analysis involving two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), two water-use scenarios for the watershed based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and environmental water requirements leading to sustained streamflow. Our analyses show that in Benin, warmer temperatures will severely limit crop production increases achieved through the expansion of sequential cropping. Depending on the climate change scenario, between 50% and 95% of cultivated areas that can currently support sequential cropping or will need to revert to single cropping. The results also show that the irrigation potential of the watershed will be at least halved by mid-century in all scenario combinations. Given the urgent need to increase crop production to meet the demands of a growing population in SSA, our study outlines challenges and the need for planned development that need to be overcome to improve food security in the coming decades.

  3. Patterns of woody plant species diversity in Lebanon as affected by climatic and soil properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zahreddine, H.; Barker, D.; Struve, D.; Martin, F.; Quigley, M.; Sleem, K.

    2007-01-01

    Lebanese biodiversity is threatened by tourist and urban development, political instability, over-collection of medicinal and aromatic plants, lack of compliance to the regulations prohibiting over-exploitation from the wild, over-grazing and forest fires. A large number of the native species have unexplored economic potential for either medicinal or ornamental use. One way to preserve these species is by propagation and reintroduction into appropriate habitats. However, this requires an understanding of the species biology and environment. The relationship of nine species to the soil and climatic conditions in eight sites along an altitudinal gradient was studied. Individual species were counted and identified within transects at each site. Climatic data were collected and soil samples were taken and analyzed for soil texture, soil pH, EC, CaCO3, organic matter content and the following nutrients: Ca, Mn, Na, Fe, P, K, Cu, Mg, and Zn. Each ecosystem had a unique environment that could be described using the first two factors (70.3 % of variation) in a Factor Analysis of the six most important variables. Some species densities were affected by soil conditions (the first factor) while climatic conditions (the second factor) explained the densities of other species. Recommendations are made for the in-situ and ex-situ preservations of the nine species and their ecosystems.(author)

  4. Patterns and processes influencing helminth parasites of Arctic coastal communities during climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galaktionov, K V

    2017-07-01

    This review analyses the scarce available data on biodiversity and transmission of helminths in Arctic coastal ecosystems and the potential impact of climate changes on them. The focus is on the helminths of seabirds, dominant parasites in coastal ecosystems. Their fauna in the Arctic is depauperate because of the lack of suitable intermediate hosts and unfavourable conditions for species with free-living larvae. An increasing proportion of crustaceans in the diet of Arctic seabirds would result in a higher infection intensity of cestodes and acanthocephalans, and may also promote the infection of seabirds with non-specific helminths. In this way, the latter may find favourable conditions for colonization of new hosts. Climate changes may alter the composition of the helminth fauna, their infection levels in hosts and ways of transmission in coastal communities. Immigration of boreal invertebrates and fish into Arctic seas may allow the circulation of helminths using them as intermediate hosts. Changing migratory routes of animals would alter the distribution of their parasites, facilitating, in particular, their trans-Arctic transfer. Prolongation of the seasonal 'transmission window' may increase the parasitic load on host populations. Changes in Arctic marine food webs would have an overriding influence on the helminths' circulation. This process may be influenced by the predicted decreased of salinity in Arctic seas, increased storm activity, coastal erosion, ocean acidification, decline of Arctic ice, etc. Greater parasitological research efforts are needed to assess the influence of factors related to Arctic climate change on the transmission of helminths.

  5. The influence of climate change on recent peat accumulation patterns of Distichia muscoides cushion bogs in the high-elevation tropical Andes of Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benavides, Juan C.; Vitt, Dale H.; Wieder, R. Kelman

    2013-12-01

    Extensive cushions of Distichia muscoides found at high elevations in the Andes form deep deposits of peat and function as peatland. The location of Distichia peatlands at the highest elevations makes them susceptible to the effects of global change including global warming. Accumulation rates of organic matter are the key function of peatland ecosystems and are highly susceptible to changes in climate. This study used 210Pb chronologies to infer the recent dynamics of three Distichia muscoides peatlands located above 4000 m in elevation. Chronological markers from dated volcanic eruptions were correlated to the 210Pb chronologies of Distichia peat and validated the 210Pb chronologies. Changes in 210Pb activity with depth indicated rapid accumulation in recent times. Organic matter had a mean accumulation rate of 1400 g m-2 yr-1 during the past 10 years, with values well above the observed regional accumulation rate of 300-400 g m-2 yr-1. The same pattern was observed in peat accretion rates, with growth rates of 1-2 cm per year during the last 10 years. Cushion plants engineer their own environment, allowing the system to be less susceptible to direct changes in climate. However, the high rates of peat accretion in recent times may be originated from increasing temperatures and excess water from nearby glacier melt. However, glaciers are predicted to disappear during the next 20 years in the northern Andes, reducing water inputs in tropical high-elevation ecosystems.

  6. In a Time of Change: Integrating the Arts and Humanities with Climate Change Science in Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leigh, M.; Golux, S.; Franzen, K.

    2011-12-01

    The arts and humanities have a powerful capacity to create lines of communication between the public, policy and scientific spheres. A growing network of visual and performing artists, writers and scientists has been actively working together since 2007 to integrate scientific and artistic perspectives on climate change in interior Alaska. These efforts have involved field workshops and collaborative creative processes culminating in public performances and a visual art exhibit. The most recent multimedia event was entitled In a Time of Change: Envisioning the Future, and challenged artists and scientists to consider future scenarios of climate change. This event included a public performance featuring original theatre, modern dance, Alaska Native Dance, poetry and music that was presented concurrently with an art exhibit featuring original works by 24 Alaskan visual artists. A related effort targeted K12 students, through an early college course entitled Climate Change and Creative Expression, which was offered to high school students at a predominantly Alaska Native charter school and integrated climate change science, creative writing, theatre and dance. Our program at Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site is just one of many successful efforts to integrate arts and humanities with science within and beyond the NSF LTER Program. The efforts of various LTER sites to engage the arts and humanities with science, the public and policymakers have successfully generated excitement, facilitated mutual understanding, and promoted meaningful dialogue on issues facing science and society. The future outlook for integration of arts and humanities with science appears promising, with increasing interest from artists, scientists and scientific funding agencies.

  7. Atmospheric and Oceanic Response to Southern Ocean Deep Convection Oscillations on Decadal to Centennial Time Scales in Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, T.; Reintges, A.; Park, W.; Latif, M.

    2014-12-01

    Many current coupled global climate models simulate open ocean deep convection in the Southern Ocean as a recurring event with time scales ranging from a few years to centennial (de Lavergne et al., 2014, Nat. Clim. Ch.). The only observation of such event, however, was the occurrence of the Weddell Polynya in the mid-1970s, an open water area of 350 000 km2 within the Antarctic sea ice in three consecutive winters. Both the wide range of modeled frequency of occurrence and the absence of deep convection in the Weddell Sea highlights the lack of understanding concerning the phenomenon. Nevertheless, simulations indicate that atmospheric and oceanic responses to the cessation of deep convection in the Southern Ocean include a strengthening of the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean (increasing SAM index) and a reduction in the export of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), potentially masking the regional effects of global warming (Latif et al., 2013, J. Clim.; Martin et al., 2014, Deep Sea Res. II). It is thus of great importance to enhance our understanding of Southern Ocean deep convection and clarify the associated time scales. In two multi-millennial simulations with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM, ECHAM5 T31 atmosphere & NEMO-LIM2 ~2˚ ocean) we showed that the deep convection is driven by strong oceanic warming at mid-depth periodically overriding the stabilizing effects of precipitation and ice melt (Martin et al., 2013, Clim. Dyn.). Sea ice thickness also affects location and duration of the deep convection. A new control simulation, in which, amongst others, the atmosphere grid resolution is changed to T42 (~2.8˚), yields a faster deep convection flip-flop with a period of 80-100 years and a weaker but still significant global climate response similar to CMIP5 simulations. While model physics seem to affect the time scale and intensity of the phenomenon, the driving mechanism is a rather robust feature. Finally, we compare the atmospheric and

  8. Farmer response to climatic and agricultural market drivers: characteristic time scales and sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurster, P. M.; Maneta, M. P.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Beguería, S.; Silverman, N. L.; Holden, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Agriculture in the intermountain western United States is dominated by extensive farming and ranching, mostly reliant on rainfed crops and therefore very exposed to precipitation shortfalls. It is also poorly diversified, dominated by five or six major grain crops, which makes it vulnerable to changes in agricultural markets. The economy of the region is very reliant on this type of agriculture, making the entire economy vulnerable to climatic and market fluctuations. Western agriculture is also of significant importance for national food security. Resource managers in the region are increasingly concerned with the impacts that more frequent and severe droughts, or the collapse of crop prices, may have on producers and food production. Effective resource management requires an understanding not only of the regional impact of adverse climatic and market events, but also of which geographic areas are most vulnerable, and why. Unfortunately, few studies exist that look into how farmers in different geographic areas respond to climate and market drivers. In this study we analyze the influence of precipitation and crop price anomalies on crop production, and map the characteristic time scale of these anomalies that correlate best with production anomalies for the 56 counties of Montana, U.S.A. We conduct this analysis using the standardized precipitation index (SPI), and defining a standardized crop value index (SCVI) and a standardized crop production index (SCPI). We use 38 years of data to calculate precipitation anomalies at monthly time scales and annual data to calculate crop price and production anomalies. The standardization of the indices allows for straightforward comparison of the relative influence of climatic and market fluctuations on production anomalies. We apply our methodology to winter wheat, spring durum wheat, barley, alfalfa, and beets which are the most valuable crops produced in the state. Results from this study show that precipitation anomalies

  9. Is there a connection between Earth's core and climate at multidecadal time scales?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Sébastien; Marcus, Steven; de Viron, Olivier

    2017-04-01

    The length-of-day (LOD) undergoes multidecadal variations of several milliseconds (ms) attributed to changes in the fluid outer core angular momentum. These variations resemble a quasi-periodic oscillation of duration 60 to 70 years, although the periodicity (and its accurate length) are disputable because of the relatively short observational time span and the lower quality of the observations before the 20th century. Interestingly, similar variations show up in various measured or reconstructed climate indices including the sea surface (SST) and surface air (SAT) temperatures. It has been shown in several studies that LOD variations lead SST and SAT variations by a few years. No clear scenarios have been raised so far to explain the link between external, astronomical forcing (e.g., Solar wind), Earth's rotation (core-driven torsional) oscillations, and Earth's surface processes (climate variations) at these time scales. Accumulating evidence, however, suggests the centrifugal tides generated by multidecadal LOD variations as a 'valve' to control the transfer of thermal energy from the lithosphere to the surface via geothermal fluxes. This hypothesis is supported by recent studies reporting significant correlations between tidal and rotational excitation and seafloor and surface volcanism. In this study, we extend recent works from us and other independent authors by re-assessing the correlations between multidecadal LOD, climate indices, Solar and magnetic activities, as well as gridded data including SST, SAT, and cloud cover. We pay a special attention to the time lags: when a significant correlation is found, the value of the lag may help to discriminate between various possible scenarios. We locate some `hot spots', particularly in the Atlantic ocean and along the trajectory of the upper branch of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), where the 70-yr oscillation is strongly marked. In addition, we discuss the possibility for centrifugal

  10. Comparison of pattern detection methods in microarray time series of the segmentation clock.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary-Lee Dequéant

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available While genome-wide gene expression data are generated at an increasing rate, the repertoire of approaches for pattern discovery in these data is still limited. Identifying subtle patterns of interest in large amounts of data (tens of thousands of profiles associated with a certain level of noise remains a challenge. A microarray time series was recently generated to study the transcriptional program of the mouse segmentation clock, a biological oscillator associated with the periodic formation of the segments of the body axis. A method related to Fourier analysis, the Lomb-Scargle periodogram, was used to detect periodic profiles in the dataset, leading to the identification of a novel set of cyclic genes associated with the segmentation clock. Here, we applied to the same microarray time series dataset four distinct mathematical methods to identify significant patterns in gene expression profiles. These methods are called: Phase consistency, Address reduction, Cyclohedron test and Stable persistence, and are based on different conceptual frameworks that are either hypothesis- or data-driven. Some of the methods, unlike Fourier transforms, are not dependent on the assumption of periodicity of the pattern of interest. Remarkably, these methods identified blindly the expression profiles of known cyclic genes as the most significant patterns in the dataset. Many candidate genes predicted by more than one approach appeared to be true positive cyclic genes and will be of particular interest for future research. In addition, these methods predicted novel candidate cyclic genes that were consistent with previous biological knowledge and experimental validation in mouse embryos. Our results demonstrate the utility of these novel pattern detection strategies, notably for detection of periodic profiles, and suggest that combining several distinct mathematical approaches to analyze microarray datasets is a valuable strategy for identifying genes that

  11. The relative roles of local climate adaptation and phylogeny in determining leaf-out timing of temperate tree species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elsa Desnoues

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Background Leaf out times of temperate forest trees are a prominent determinant of global carbon dynamics throughout the year. Abiotic cues of leaf emergence are well studied but investigation of the relative roles of shared evolutionary history (phylogeny and local adaptation to climate in determining the species-level responses to these cues is needed to better apprehend the effect of global change on leaf emergence. We explored the relative importance of phylogeny and climate in determining the innate leaf out phenology across the temperate biome. Methods We used an extensive dataset of leaf-out dates of 1126 temperate woody species grown in eight Northern Hemisphere common gardens. For these species, information on the native climate and phylogenetic position was collected. Using linear regression analyses, we examine the relative effect of climate variables and phylogeny on leaf out variation among species. Results Climate variables explained twice as much variation in leaf out timing as phylogenetic information, a process that was driven primarily by the complex interactive effects of multiple climate variables. Although the primary climate factors explaining species-level variation in leaf-out timing varied drastically across different families, our analyses reveal that local adaptation plays a stronger role than common evolutionary history in determining tree phenology across the temperate biome. Conclusions In the long-term, the direct effects of physiological adaptation to abiotic effects of climate change on forest phenology are likely to outweigh the indirect effects mediated through changes in tree species composition.

  12. Associations of outdoor play and screen time with nocturnal sleep duration and pattern among young children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Huilan; Wen, Li Ming; Hardy, Louise L; Rissel, Chris

    2016-03-01

    Sleep duration and pattern have important implications for children's health. This study aims to investigate nocturnal sleep duration, sleep pattern and their relationships with outdoor play and screen time among children aged 2 to five years. The study used data from the Healthy Beginnings Trial undertaken in Sydney, Australia. Data on children's sleep, outdoor playtime and screen time were reported by mothers via face-to-face interviews when children were 2, 3.5 and five years old. Both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted. At age 2, 3.5 and five years, 497, 415 and 369 mother-child dyads participated. Significantly, there was an overall increase in children's nocturnal sleep duration, sleep latency and an earlier bedtime, and there was a decrease in the proportion of children who woke at night over time. Each additional hour of screen time was associated with three-minute (95% CI 0.6-5) shorter sleep, 1.6-minute (95% CI 0.59-2.63) longer sleep latency, four-minute (95% CI 1.8-6.0) later bedtime and less likely sleeping ≥10 hours per night with adjusted odds ratio 0.88 (95% CI 0.77-1.00), after controlling for mothers' demographics. Among young children, screen time and outdoor playtime were associated with sleep duration and pattern. Reducing screen time and increasing outdoor playtime might help improving children's sleep. ©2015 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Complex Networks Dynamics Based on Events-Phase Synchronization and Intensity Correlation Applied to The Anomaly Patterns and Extremes in The Tropical African Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oluoch, K.; Marwan, N.; Trauth, M.; Loew, A.; Kurths, J.

    2012-04-01

    The African continent lie almost entirely within the tropics and as such its (tropical) climate systems are predominantly governed by the heterogeneous, spatial and temporal variability of the Hadley and Walker circulations. The variabilities in these meridional and zonal circulations lead to intensification or suppression of the intensities, durations and frequencies of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ICTZ) migration, trade winds and subtropical high-pressure regions and the continental monsoons. The above features play a central role in determining the African rainfall spatial and temporal variability patterns. The current understanding of these climate features and their influence on the rainfall patterns is not sufficiently understood. Like many real-world systems, atmospheric-oceanic processes exhibit non-linear properties that can be better explored using non-linear (NL) methods of time-series analysis. Over the recent years, the complex network approach has evolved as a powerful new player in understanding spatio-temporal dynamics and evolution of complex systems. Together with NL techniques, it is continuing to find new applications in many areas of science and technology including climate research. We would like to use these two powerful methods to understand the spatial structure and dynamics of African rainfall anomaly patterns and extremes. The method of event synchronization (ES) developed by Quiroga et al., 2002 and first applied to climate networks by Malik et al., 2011 looks at correlations with a dynamic time lag and as such, it is a more intuitive way to correlate a complex and heterogeneous system like climate networks than a fixed time delay most commonly used. On the other hand, the short comings of ES is its lack of vigorous test statistics for the significance level of the correlations, and the fact that only the events' time indices are synchronized while all information about how the relative intensities propagate within network

  14. Deep Learning @15 Petaflops/second: Semi-supervised pattern detection for 15 Terabytes of climate data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, W. D.; Wehner, M. F.; Prabhat, M.; Kurth, T.; Satish, N.; Mitliagkas, I.; Zhang, J.; Racah, E.; Patwary, M.; Sundaram, N.; Dubey, P.

    2017-12-01

    Anthropogenically-forced climate changes in the number and character of extreme storms have the potential to significantly impact human and natural systems. Current high-performance computing enables multidecadal simulations with global climate models at resolutions of 25km or finer. Such high-resolution simulations are demonstrably superior in simulating extreme storms such as tropical cyclones than the coarser simulations available in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and provide the capability to more credibly project future changes in extreme storm statistics and properties. The identification and tracking of storms in the voluminous model output is very challenging as it is impractical to manually identify storms due to the enormous size of the datasets, and therefore automated procedures are used. Traditionally, these procedures are based on a multi-variate set of physical conditions based on known properties of the class of storms in question. In recent years, we have successfully demonstrated that Deep Learning produces state of the art results for pattern detection in climate data. We have developed supervised and semi-supervised convolutional architectures for detecting and localizing tropical cyclones, extra-tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers in simulation data. One of the primary challenges in the applicability of Deep Learning to climate data is in the expensive training phase. Typical networks may take days to converge on 10GB-sized datasets, while the climate science community has ready access to O(10 TB)-O(PB) sized datasets. In this work, we present the most scalable implementation of Deep Learning to date. We successfully scale a unified, semi-supervised convolutional architecture on all of the Cori Phase II supercomputer at NERSC. We use IntelCaffe, MKL and MLSL libraries. We have optimized single node MKL libraries to obtain 1-4 TF on single KNL nodes. We have developed a novel hybrid parameter update strategy to improve

  15. Adaptive fine root foraging patterns in climate experiments and natural gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostonen, Ivika; Truu, Marika; Parts, Kaarin; Truu, Jaak

    2017-04-01

    Site based manipulative experiments and studies along climatic gradients have long been keystones of ecological research. We aimed to compare the response of ectomycorrhizal (EcM) and fine roots in manipulative studies and along climate gradient to describe the universal trends in root traits and to raise hypotheses about general mechanisms in fine root system adaptation of forest trees in global change. The root traits from two climate manipulation experiments - Bangor FACE and FAHM in Estonia, manipulated by CO2 concentration and relative air humidity in silver birch forest ecosystems, respectively and the data for three most ubiquitous tree species - Norway spruce (Picea abies), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and silver birch (Betula pendula) stands along natural gradient encompassing different climate and forest zones in Northern Europe were analysed. There are two main strategies in response of fine root system of trees: A) an extensive increase in absorptive root biomass, surface area and length, or B) a greater reliance on root-associated EcM fungi and bacterial communities with a smaller investment to absorptive root biomass. Trees in all studies tended to increase the EcM root biomass and the proportion of EcM root biomass of total fine root biomass towards harsh (northern boreal forests) or changed conditions (stress created by the increase in CO2 concentration or relative air humidity). We envisage a role of trilateral relation between the morphological traits of absorptive fine roots, exploration types of colonising EcM fungi and rhizosphere and bulk soil bacterial community structure. A significant change in EcM absorptive fine root biomass in all experiments and for all studied tree species coincided with changes in absorptive root morphology, being longer and thinner root tips with higher root tissue density in poor/treated sites. These changes were associated with significant shifts in community structure of dominating EcM fungi as well as soil and

  16. Assessing the effectiveness of RegCM4 regional climate model in simulating the aerosol optical depth patterns over the region of Eastern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgoulias, Aristeidis K.; Tsikerdekis, Athanasios; Ntogras, Christos; Zanis, Prodromos

    2014-05-01

    In this work, the ability of the regional climate model RegCM4 to simulate the aerosol optical depth (AOD) patterns over the region of Eastern Mediterranean is assessed. Three separate runs were implemented within the framework of the QUADIEEMS project for the time period 2000-2010 at a horizontal resolution of 50km covering the region of Europe. ERA-interim data were used as lateral boundary conditions while the model was driven by emissions from CMIP5. In the first case, the total of the aerosol types that RegCM4 accounts for were included (sulfate, black carbon, sea salt, dust), while in the other two cases only anthropogenic and dust particles were taken into account, respectively. The total AOD patterns were compared against level-2 satellite observations from MODIS TERRA and AQUA and ground-based measurements from 12 AERONET sites located in the region. In addition, the RegCM4 anthropogenic and dust AOD patterns were compared against the anthropogenic and dust component of MODIS AOD which was calculated using a combination of various satellite, model and reanalysis products. Our results indicate a significant underestimation of the anthropogenic AOD, while, on the contrary, the dust AOD fields are simulated in a more efficient way. The QUADIEEMS project is co-financed by the European Social Fund (ESF) and national resources under the operational programme Education and Lifelong Learning (EdLL) within the framework of the Action "Supporting Postdoctoral Researchers".

  17. Race Pattern of Women’s 100-m Hurdles: Time Analysis of Olympic Hurdle Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios Tsiokanos

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: For control and effective management of training process in women’s 100-m hurdles event, the coaches, in addition to detailed biomechanical parameters, need also overall, more comprehensive technical parameters, called direct performance descriptors which are used for planning the distribution of an athlete’s efforts over the race. Purpose: The aim of this study was the investigation of the race behavior of elite women sprint hurdlers, on the basis of selected time parameters, and the examination of the existence of a common race pattern in high level hurdle performance. Method: The time data of the race performance between two consecutive Olympic Games were compared. The analyzing subjects consisted of all women 100-m hurdle finalists in Athens 2004 (n = 6 and all women 100-m hurdle finalists (n = 8 and semi-finalists (n = 14 in Beijing 2008. Results: No significant differences were revealed between the two competitions concerning to the means of approach run time, run-in time, intermediate touchdown times, interval times for the hurdle units and the corresponding average velocities. Significant relationship exists between the intermediate times and final performance. The time contribution of the first half of the race to the formation of the final performance is approximately equal to the second one and, generally the standardised time parameters show the existence of a common race pattern in high level hurdle performance. Conclusion: The presented biomechanical data provide coaches and athletes with valuable information about hurdle technique for effective interventions in the training process.

  18. Climate Variable is Time-Averaged: Dealing with Uncertainty of Paleoclimatic Record Caused by Smoothening of Noisy Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umemura, K.; Ebina, K.

    2014-12-01

    Climate is the average of weather over some time period and shows characteristic behavior in each time scale. In paleoclimatic research, values of climate variables are measured from proxies that give time series of time-averaged variables. Therefore, understanding the dynamics of time-averaged variable is important to investigate climate variations thorough different time scales. In our recent study, we formulated how stochastic dynamics changes corresponding to averaging time intervals using one dimensional first order stochastic differential equation which contains parametrically controlled terms of deterministic single-well or double-well potential force and random force. The dynamics of time-averaged variable is described by conditional probability density function. In the case of single-well, the function is analytically derived as normal distribution with scaling parameters. In the case of double-well potential, the function is obtained as skew generalized normal distribution function through numerical simulations. The mathematical framework of stochastic dynamics of time-averaged variable is general and applicable to analysis of many kinds of climate time series data. In this study, we apply the above framework to the analysis of proxy data from ice core and discuss about time scaling of the past climate variations. We test several models to infer the optimal model description for the data.

  19. Precipitation isotopes link regional climate patterns to water supply in a tropical mountain forest, eastern Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholl, Martha A.; Murphy, Sheila F.

    2014-01-01

    Like many mountainous areas in the tropics, watersheds in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico have abundant rainfall and stream discharge and provide much of the water supply for the densely populated metropolitan areas nearby. Projected changes in regional temperature and atmospheric dynamics as a result of global warming suggest that water availability will be affected by changes in rainfall patterns. It is essential to understand the relative importance of different weather systems to water supply to determine how changes in rainfall patterns, interacting with geology and vegetation, will affect the water balance. To help determine the links between climate and water availability, stable isotope signatures of precipitation from different weather systems were established to identify those that are most important in maintaining streamflow and groundwater recharge. Precipitation stable isotope values in the Luquillo Mountains had a large range, from fog/cloud water with δ2H, δ18O values as high as +12 ‰, −0.73 ‰ to tropical storm rain with values as low as −127 ‰, −16.8 ‰. Temporal isotope values exhibit a reverse seasonality from those observed in higher latitude continental watersheds, with higher isotopic values in the winter and lower values in the summer. Despite the higher volume of convective and low-pressure system rainfall, stable isotope analyses indicated that under the current rainfall regime, frequent trade -wind orographic showers contribute much of the groundwater recharge and stream base flow. Analysis of rain events using 20 years of 15 -minute resolution data at a mountain station (643 m) showed an increasing trend in rainfall amount, in agreement with increased precipitable water in the atmosphere, but differing from climate model projections of drying in the region. The mean intensity of rain events also showed an increasing trend. The determination of recharge sources from stable isotope tracers indicates that water

  20. Climate and evolution: implications of some extinction patterns in African and European Machairodontine Cats of the Plio-Pleistocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antón, M.

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available Estudios recientes sobre las correlaciones entre cambios climáticos globales y la evolución de la biota del Plio-Pleistoceno Africano han revelado aparentes discrepancias entre las fechas y la significación de eventos registrados en distintas fuentes. Las diferencias mas notables se refieren a un importante cambio en la proporción de isótopos de oxígeno marinas hace 2,5 millones de años, y a la posibilidad de una transición biótica relacionada causalmente con dicho cambio. Cambios en la vegetación detectados a través de los valores de isótopos estables en los paleosuelos sugieren que el principal cambio hacia una vegetación mas abierta ocurrió mas tarde, hace ∼1,7 millones de años. Nosotros estudiamos el problema refiriendonos en particular a los eventos de hace 1,7 millones de años, y a la extinción en Africa de los félidos con dientes de sable que se produce poco después, puesto que las extinciones de taxones euritópicos como estos probablemente señala cambios significativos en las condiciones ambientales. Nosotros comparamos el patrón de dichas extinciones con los de taxones semejantes 0 idénticos, en Eurasia y América, y sugerimos que en cada caso hay claros indicios de importantes cambios ambientales. Es probable que los cambios en la vegetación de Africa registrados hace ∼1,7 millones de años representen una respuesta en el medio terrestre alas cambios climáticos globales reflejados en el registro marino hace ∼1,9 millones de años.Recent discussions of correlations between global climatic change and evolution of the African Plio-Pleistocene biota have revealed apparent discrepancies between the timing and significance of events recorded in different data sets. The most notable differences have occurred in relation to a major shift in the ratio of marine oxygen isotopes by 2.5 myr and claims for a causally related transition in the biota. Vegetational changes recorded in palaeosol stable isotope

  1. Angiogenesis interactome and time course microarray data reveal the distinct activation patterns in endothelial cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang-Hui Chu

    Full Text Available Angiogenesis involves stimulation of endothelial cells (EC by various cytokines and growth factors, but the signaling mechanisms are not completely understood. Combining dynamic gene expression time-course data for stimulated EC with protein-protein interactions associated with angiogenesis (the "angiome" could reveal how different stimuli result in different patterns of network activation and could implicate signaling intermediates as points for control or intervention. We constructed the protein-protein interaction networks of positive and negative regulation of angiogenesis comprising 367 and 245 proteins, respectively. We used five published gene expression datasets derived from in vitro assays using different types of blood endothelial cells stimulated by VEGFA (vascular endothelial growth factor A. We used the Short Time-series Expression Miner (STEM to identify significant temporal gene expression profiles. The statistically significant patterns between 2D fibronectin and 3D type I collagen substrates for telomerase-immortalized EC (TIME show that different substrates could influence the temporal gene activation patterns in the same cell line. We investigated the different activation patterns among 18 transmembrane tyrosine kinase receptors, and experimentally measured the protein level of the tyrosine-kinase receptors VEGFR1, VEGFR2 and VEGFR3 in human umbilical vein EC (HUVEC and human microvascular EC (MEC. The results show that VEGFR1-VEGFR2 levels are more closely coupled than VEGFR1-VEGFR3 or VEGFR2-VEGFR3 in HUVEC and MEC. This computational methodology can be extended to investigate other molecules or biological processes such as cell cycle.

  2. Climate and humans set the place and time of Proboscidean extinction in late Quaternary of South America

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus Souza; Nogues, David Bravo; Terribile, Levi Carina

    2013-01-01

    on scattered patches of suitable habitats (i.e., refugia) around 11 ka, period in which the earliest humans potentially arrived in South America, increasing the population density thereafter. Under this overall unsuitable climatic condition at 11 ka, both Proboscideans would be extinct after around 550 years...... of human hunting, but if climatic conditions were suitable like in Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the time-for-extinction would be at least 3 times longer under the same human hunting pressures. Thus, our findings support the ``Broken Zig-Zag'' model and show that South American Proboscideans might have been......The late Quaternary extinctions have been widely debated for a long time, but the varying magnitude of human vs. climate change impacts across time and space is still an unresolved question. Here we assess the geographic range shifts in response to climate change based on Ecological Niche Models...

  3. Lethal body concentrations and accumulation patterns determine time-dependent toxicity of cadmium in soil arthropods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crommentuijn, T.; Doodeman, C.J.A.M.; Doornekamp, A.; Pol, J.J.C. van der; Bedaux, J.J.M.; Gestel, C.A.M. van (Vrije Univ., Amsterdam (Netherlands))

    1994-11-01

    Time-dependent toxicity in bioassays is usually explained in terms of uptake and elimination kinetics of the toxicant. By comparing different species with essentially different accumulation kinetics, a firm test of this concept may be made. This article compares the sensitivity of six soil arthropods, the collembolans Orchesella cincta and Tomocerus minor, the oribatid mite Platynothrus peltifer, the isopods Porcellio scaber and Oniscus asellus, and the diplopod Cylindroiulus britannicus, when exposed to cadmium in the food. Survival was determined at various time intervals; accumulation of cadmium in the animals was measured at one time interval. Kinetic-based toxicity models were fitted to the data, and estimates were obtained for lethal body concentration, uptake rate constant, elimination rate constant, and ultimate LC50. Two different accumulation patterns could be discerned; these were correlated with time-survival relationships. One, species that have the possibility to eliminate cadmium will reach an equilibrium for the internal concentration and also an ultimate LC50. Two, species that are unable to eliminate cadmium but store it in the body will have an ultimate LC50 equal to zero. For these species the time in which the lethal body concentration is reached is more important. Taxonomically related species appeared to have comparable accumulation patterns, but lethal body concentrations differed. It is concluded that knowledge of the accumulation pattern is indispensable for the evaluation of species' sensitivities to toxicants.

  4. Density and spatial distribution of Parkia biglobosa pattern in Benin under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fafunkè Titilayo Dotchamou

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Parkia biglobosa is an indigenous species which, traditionally contributes to the resilience of the agricultural production system in terms of food security, source of income, poverty reduction and ecosystem stability. Therefore, it is important to improve knowledge on its density, current and future spatial distribution. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the tree density, the climate change effects on the spatial distribution of the species in the future for better conservation. The modeling of the current and future geographical distribution of the species is based on the principle of Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt on a total of 286 occurrence points from field work and Global Biodiversity Information Facility GBIF-Data Portal-(www.gbif.org. Two climatic models (HadGEM2_ES and Csiro_mk3_6_0 have been used under two scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 for the projection of the species distribution at the horizon 2050. The correlation analyses and Jackknife test have helped to identify seven variables which are less correlated (r < 0.80 with highest modeling participation. The soil, annual precipitation (BIO12 and temperature (diurnal average Deviation are the variables which have mostly contributed to performance of the models. Currently, 53% of national territory, spread from north to south is very suitable to the cultivation of P. biglobosa. The scenarios have predicted at the horizon 2050, a loss of the habitats which are currently very suitable for the cultivation and conservation of P. biglobosa, to the benefit of moderate and weak habitats. 51% and 57% are the highest proportion of this lost which will be registered with HadGEM2_ES model under two scenarios. These results revealed that the suitable habitat of the species is threatened by climate change in Benin. In order to limit damage such as decreased productivity, extinction of species, some appropriate solutions must be found.

  5. Climate driven range divergence among host species affects range-wide patterns of parasitism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard E. Feldman

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Species interactions like parasitism influence the outcome of climate-driven shifts in species ranges. For some host species, parasitism can only occur in that part of its range that overlaps with a second host species. Thus, predicting future parasitism may depend on how the ranges of the two hosts change in relation to each other. In this study, we tested whether the climate driven species range shift of Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer accounts for predicted changes in parasitism of two other species from the family Cervidae, Alces alces (moose and Rangifer tarandus (caribou, in North America. We used MaxEnt models to predict the recent (2000 and future (2050 ranges (probabilities of occurrence of the cervids and a parasite Parelaphostrongylus tenuis (brainworm taking into account range shifts of the parasite’s intermediate gastropod hosts. Our models predicted that range overlap between A. alces/R. tarandus and P. tenuis will decrease between 2000 and 2050, an outcome that reflects decreased overlap between A. alces/R. tarandus and O. virginianus and not the parasites, themselves. Geographically, our models predicted increasing potential occurrence of P. tenuis where A. alces/R. tarandus are likely to decline, but minimal spatial overlap where A. alces/R. tarandus are likely to increase. Thus, parasitism may exacerbate climate-mediated southern contraction of A. alces and R. tarandus ranges but will have limited influence on northward range expansion. Our results suggest that the spatial dynamics of one host species may be the driving force behind future rates of parasitism for another host species.

  6. Land-atmosphere interaction patterns in southeastern South America using satellite products and climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spennemann, P. C.; Salvia, M.; Ruscica, R. C.; Sörensson, A. A.; Grings, F.; Karszenbaum, H.

    2018-02-01

    In regions of strong Land-Atmosphere (L-A) interaction, soil moisture (SM) conditions can impact the atmosphere through modulating the land surface fluxes. The importance of the identification of L-A interaction regions lies in the potential improvement of the weather/seasonal forecast and the better understanding of the physical mechanisms involved. This study aims to compare the terrestrial segment of the L-A interaction from satellite products and climate models, motivated by previous modeling studies pointing out southeastern South America (SESA) as a L-A hotspot during austral summer. In addition, the L-A interaction under dry or wet anomalous conditions over SESA is analyzed. To identify L-A hotspots the AMSRE-LPRM SM and MODIS land surface temperature products; coupled climate models and uncoupled land surface models were used. SESA highlights as a strong L-A interaction hotspot when employing different metrics, temporal scales and independent datasets, showing consistency between models and satellite estimations. Both AMSRE-LPRM bands (X and C) are consistent showing a strong L-A interaction hotspot over the Pampas ecoregion. Intensification and a larger spatial extent of the L-A interaction for dry summers was observed in both satellite products and models compared to wet summers. These results, which were derived from measured physical variables, are encouraging and promising for future studies analyzing L-A interactions. L-A interaction analysis is proposed here as a meeting point between remote sensing and climate modelling communities of Argentina, within a region with the highest agricultural and livestock production of the continent, but with an important lack of in-situ SM observations.

  7. Antarctic climate, Southern Ocean circulation patterns, and deep water formation during the Eocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huck, Claire E.; van de Flierdt, Tina; Bohaty, Steven M.; Hammond, Samantha J.

    2017-07-01

    We assess early-to-middle Eocene seawater neodymium (Nd) isotope records from seven Southern Ocean deep-sea drill sites to evaluate the role of Southern Ocean circulation in long-term Cenozoic climate change. Our study sites are strategically located on either side of the Tasman Gateway and are positioned at a range of shallow (fish teeth at intermediate/deep Indian Ocean pelagic sites (Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Sites 738 and 757 and Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 264), indicate a dominant Southern Ocean-sourced contribution to regional deep waters (ɛNd(t) = -9.3 ± 1.5). IODP Site U1356 off the coast of Adélie Land, a locus of modern-day Antarctic Bottom Water production, is identified as a site of persistent deep water formation from the early Eocene to the Oligocene. East of the Tasman Gateway an additional local source of intermediate/deep water formation is inferred at ODP Site 277 in the SW Pacific Ocean (ɛNd(t) = -8.7 ± 1.5). Antarctic-proximal shelf sites (ODP Site 1171 and Site U1356) reveal a pronounced erosional event between 49 and 48 Ma, manifested by 2 ɛNd unit negative excursions in seawater chemistry toward the composition of bulk sediments at these sites. This erosional event coincides with the termination of peak global warmth following the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum and is associated with documented cooling across the study region and increased export of Antarctic deep waters, highlighting the complexity and importance of Southern Ocean circulation in the greenhouse climate of the Eocene.

  8. Near-surface wind pattern in regional climate projections over the broader Adriatic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belušić, Andreina; Telišman Prtenjak, Maja; Güttler, Ivan; Ban, Nikolina; Leutwyler, David; Schär, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    The Adriatic region is characterized by the complex coastline, strong topographic gradients and specific wind regimes. This represents excellent test area for the latest generation of the regional climate models (RCMs) applied over the European domain. The most famous wind along the Adriatic coast is bora, which due to its strength, has a strong impact on all types of human activities in the Adriatic region. The typical bora wind is a severe gusty downslope flow perpendicular to the mountains. Besides bora, in the Adriatic region, typical winds are sirocco (mostly during the wintertime) and sea/land breezes (dominantly in the warm part of the year) as a part of the regional Mediterranean wind system. Thus, it is substantial to determine future changes in the wind filed characteristics (e.g., changes in strength and frequencies). The first step was the evaluation of a suite of ten EURO- and MED-CORDEX models (at 50 km and 12.5 km resolution), and two additional high resolution models from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich (ETHZ, at 12.5 km and 2.2. km resolution) in the present climate. These results provided a basis for the next step where wind field features, in an ensemble of RCMs forced by global climate models (GCMs) in historical and future runs are examined. Our aim is to determine the influence of the particular combination of RCMs and GCMs, horizontal resolution and emission scenario on the future changes in the near-surface wind field. The analysis reveals strong sensitivity of the simulated wind flow and its statistics to both season and location analyzed, to the horizontal resolution of the RCM and on the choice of the particular GCM that provides boundary conditions.

  9. Changing Flow Patterns In The Ganges And Brahmaputra Basins: Evidence Of Regional Climate Warming In The Eastern Himalayas?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prashar, D. K.; Akanda, A. S.; Small, D. L.; Islam, S.

    2010-12-01

    The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin region of South Asia is home to over 500 million people. Water is intricately linked with the overall development framework of this region. Concerns about region wide climate warming and early signs of glacial retreat have raised questions about the long-term flow availability of these rivers. In addition, possible seasonal shifts in the regional streamflow patterns may lead to major changes in environmental impacts and water management and usage practices. We compare precipitation, streamflow, and related atmospheric changes for the upper Brahmaputra and the Ganges basin regions at monthly, seasonal, annual and decadal scales. We find that a strong warming signal is evident in the recorded discharge of the two rivers with seasonal flow values for both basins showing a significant shift over the last decade. Increasing trends have been observed in the Brahmaputra and Ganges low flows over the last decade. Monthly flow in the dry season has risen significantly, while monsoon flow volumes have decreased. While there has been no change in precipitation patterns in the region, investigation using temperature Reanalysis data show that winter temperatures in the high altitude regions are increasingly warmer thereby causing abnormal patterns of snow accumulation and depletion. Our findings are corroborated by remotely sensed snow cover patterns in corresponding years. While these hydroclimatic changes may provide short-term relief for dry season water scarcity, long-term viability of the available runoff remain questionable. It is thus imperative to understand the shifting flow patterns and associated impacts on water needs in the region.

  10. ICUD-0420 Testing high resolution synthetic rainfall time series representing current and future climates on CSO and other indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Davidsen, S.; Löwe, Roland

    2017-01-01

    Combined sewer systems have a long technical lifetime, thus climate change must be taken into consideration when designing new CSO structures, basins, and pipe system enhancements. At the same time, the performance is highly dependent on antecedent conditions in the sewer system and is therefore...... with the physical properties of the catchment and the expectations to climate change....... best modelled using LTS. In the present study, we calculate indicators related to CSO statistics using synthetic time series created with different methodologies for both present and future climatic conditions. The methodology for synthetic rainfall generation influences the obtained results along...

  11. Climate effects on late-season flight times of Massachusetts butterflies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipf, L.; Williams, E. H.; Primack, R. B.; Stichter, S.

    2017-09-01

    Although the responses of living organisms to climate change are being widely investigated, little attention has been given to such effects late in the growing season. We studied the late-season flight times of 20 species of butterflies in a geographically limited region, the state of Massachusetts in the USA, by examining change in dates of flight over a 22-year period and in response to average monthly temperature and precipitation. By analyzing the last 10% of each year's observations reported by observers of the Massachusetts Butterfly Club, we found that seven species remain in flight significantly later into the fall than they did two decades earlier, while two species show reduced late-season flight. Life history characteristics of the species, particularly voltinism and average fall flight dates, influenced whether warmer fall months led to increases or decreases in fall flight. Warmer Novembers often led to later fall flight, and wetter Augusts usually extended fall flight. These results document the effects of climate on late-season flight times of butterflies, add to an understanding of how warmer autumn conditions alter the phenology of different butterfly species, and show the usefulness of citizen science data.

  12. Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malhi, Yadvinder; Wright, James

    2004-03-29

    We present an analysis of the mean climate and climatic trends of tropical rainforest regions over the period 1960-1998, with the aid of explicit maps of forest cover and climatological databases. Until the mid-1970s most regions showed little trend in temperature, and the western Amazon experienced a net cooling probably associated with an interdecadal oscillation. Since the mid-1970s, all tropical rainforest regions have experienced a strong warming at a mean rate of 0.26 +/- 0.05 degrees C per decade, in synchrony with a global rise in temperature that has been attributed to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. Over the study period, precipitation appears to have declined in tropical rainforest regions at a rate of 1.0 +/- 0.8% per decade (p variability, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary driver of temperature variations across the tropics and of precipitation fluctuations for large areas of the Americas and southeast Asia. The relation between ENSO and tropical African precipitation appears less direct.

  13. Extracting information in spike time patterns with wavelets and information theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes-dos-Santos, Vítor; Panzeri, Stefano; Kayser, Christoph; Diamond, Mathew E; Quian Quiroga, Rodrigo

    2015-02-01

    We present a new method to assess the information carried by temporal patterns in spike trains. The method first performs a wavelet decomposition of the spike trains, then uses Shannon information to select a subset of coefficients carrying information, and finally assesses timing information in terms of decoding performance: the ability to identify the presented stimuli from spike train patterns. We show that the method allows: 1) a robust assessment of the information carried by spike time patterns even when this is distributed across multiple time scales and time points; 2) an effective denoising of the raster plots that improves the estimate of stimulus tuning of spike trains; and 3) an assessment of the information carried by temporally coordinated spikes across neurons. Using simulated data, we demonstrate that the Wavelet-Information (WI) method performs better and is more robust to spike time-jitter, background noise, and sample size than well-established approaches, such as principal component analysis, direct estimates of information from digitized spike trains, or a metric-based method. Furthermore, when applied to real spike trains from monkey auditory cortex and from rat barrel cortex, the WI method allows extracting larger amounts of spike timing information. Importantly, the fact that the WI method incorporates multiple time scales makes it robust to the choice of partly arbitrary parameters such as temporal resolution, response window length, number of response features considered, and the number of available trials. These results highlight the potential of the proposed method for accurate and objective assessments of how spike timing encodes information. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  14. Climate change velocity since the Last Glacial Maximum and its importance for patterns of species richness and range size

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandel, Brody Steven; Arge, Lars Allan; Svenning, J.-C.

    is likely to be a more biologically meaningful measure of climate stability than the previously used simple climate anomaly, because it scales climate change relative to local variation in climate, capturing the potential for topographic refuges to buffer species from climate change. We tested...... to capture an important historical signal on current mammal and amphibian distributions....

  15. Cross-Sectional Analysis of Levels and Patterns of Objectively Measured Sedentary Time in Adolescent Females

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Harrington, Deirdre M.

    2011-10-28

    Abstract Background Adolescent females have been highlighted as a particularly sedentary population and the possible negative effects of a sedentary lifestyle are being uncovered. However, much of the past sedentary research is based on self-report or uses indirect methods to quantity sedentary time. Total time spent sedentary and the possible intricate sedentary patterns of adolescent females have not been described using objective and direct measure of body inclination. The objectives of this article are to examine the sedentary levels and patterns of a group of adolescent females using the ActivPAL™ and to highlight possible differences in sedentary levels and patterns across the week and within the school day. A full methodological description of how the data was analyzed is also presented. Methods One hundred and eleven adolescent females, age 15-18 yrs, were recruited from urban and rural areas in the Republic of Ireland. Participants wore an ActivPAL physical activity monitor for a 7.5 day period. The ActivPAL directly reports total time spent sitting\\/lying every 15 seconds and accumulation (frequency and duration) of sedentary activity was examined using a customized MATLAB ® computer software programme. Results While no significant difference was found in the total time spent sitting\\/lying over the full 24 hour day between weekday and weekend day (18.8 vs. 18.9 hours; p = .911), significantly more sedentary bouts of 1 to 5 minutes and 21 to 40 minutes in duration were accumulated on weekdays compared to weekend days (p < .001). The mean length of each sedentary bout was also longer (9.8 vs. 8.8 minutes; p < .001). When school hours (9 am-3 pm) and after school hours (4 pm-10 pm) were compared, there was no difference in total time spent sedentary (3.9 hours; p = .796) but the pattern of accumulation of the sedentary time differed. There were a greater number of bouts of > 20 minutes duration during school hours than after school hours (4.7 vs. 3

  16. Real-time intelligent pattern recognition algorithm for surface EMG signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jahed Mehran

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Electromyography (EMG is the study of muscle function through the inquiry of electrical signals that the muscles emanate. EMG signals collected from the surface of the skin (Surface Electromyogram: sEMG can be used in different applications such as recognizing musculoskeletal neural based patterns intercepted for hand prosthesis movements. Current systems designed for controlling the prosthetic hands either have limited functions or can only be used to perform simple movements or use excessive amount of electrodes in order to achieve acceptable results. In an attempt to overcome these problems we have proposed an intelligent system to recognize hand movements and have provided a user assessment routine to evaluate the correctness of executed movements. Methods We propose to use an intelligent approach based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS integrated with a real-time learning scheme to identify hand motion commands. For this purpose and to consider the effect of user evaluation on recognizing hand movements, vision feedback is applied to increase the capability of our system. By using this scheme the user may assess the correctness of the performed hand movement. In this work a hybrid method for training fuzzy system, consisting of back-propagation (BP and least mean square (LMS is utilized. Also in order to optimize the number of fuzzy rules, a subtractive clustering algorithm has been developed. To design an effective system, we consider a conventional scheme of EMG pattern recognition system. To design this system we propose to use two different sets of EMG features, namely time domain (TD and time-frequency representation (TFR. Also in order to decrease the undesirable effects of the dimension of these feature sets, principle component analysis (PCA is utilized. Results In this study, the myoelectric signals considered for classification consists of six unique hand movements. Features chosen for EMG signal

  17. Emerging Patterns Of Bangsa Malaysia In Anthony Burgess’ Time For A Tiger

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farahanna Abd Razak

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Time for a Tiger (1956, a novel by Anthony Burgess, is believed to have been overlooked in the Malaysian literary context. Existing scholarship has maintained that the central themes of Time for a Tiger are colliding cultures, clashes of religion and racial conflicts but, in spite of these themes, this paper attempts to argue that there are in fact emerging patterns of Bangsa Malaysia in Time for a Tiger, which in turn reflect the elements of unity among the rich mixture of multi-ethnic characters. Bangsa Malaysia is not only the first of the nine challenges listed in Vision 2020 as conceptualised by Dr. Mahathir Mohamad (1991, but also marks the first time the Malaysian government is officially putting forward a clear vision in building a nation, launched to create a oneness atmosphere among the ethnic groups, in hopes it will reduce, if not erase, the tension among them. This study reveals that there are indeed emerging patterns of Bangsa Malaysia depicted through a mixture of characters from various ethnicities, namely the Malays, the Chinese and the Indians, through the implementation of government policies, education, a change of mindset and personal judgement, patriotism and the unifying role of the monarchy. Additionally, the patterns do support the earlier stage of the formation of Bangsa Malaysia, namely tolerance.

  18. Sitting time and work patterns as indicators of overweight and obesity in Australian adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, W J; Miller, Y D; Miller, R

    2003-11-01

    Increasing levels of physical inactivity and sedentariness are contributing to the current overweight and obesity epidemic. In this paper, the findings of two recent studies are used to explore the relationships between sitting time (in transport, work and leisure), physical activity and body mass index (BMI) in two contrasting samples of adult Australians. Data on sitting time, physical activity, BMI and a number of demographic characteristics were compared for participants in two studies-529 women who were participants in a preschool health promotion project ('mothers'), and 185 men and women who were involved in a workplace pedometer study ('workers'). Relationships between age, number of children, physical activity, sitting time, BMI, gender and work patterns were explored. Logistic regression was used to predict the likelihood of being overweight or obese, among participants with different physical activity, sitting time and work patterns. The total reported time spent sitting per day (across all domains) was almost 6 h less among the mothers than the workers (Pmothers, a significantly greater proportion of the workers was classified as overweight or obese (BMI > or =25 kg/m(2)). Univariate analysis found that, compared with men in full-time work, women who worked full-time (OR=0.42, CI: 0.24-0.74), part-time (OR=0.35, CI: 0.20-0.59) or in full-time home duties (OR=0.51, CI: 0.29-0.88) were about half as likely to be overweight or obese. Participants who reported high daily levels of sitting (> or =7.4 h) were also significantly more likely than those who reported 'low' levels (obese (OR=1.68, CI: 1.16-2.42). Multivariate analysis (including physical activity, work patterns and sitting time) confirmed that full-time and part-time working women (but not 'home duties' women) were less likely to report BMI > or =25 kg/m(2) than full-time working men (full-time: OR=0.44, CI: 0.25-0.78; part-time: OR=0.45, CI: 0.24-0.86), but the OR for BMI > or =25 among those in

  19. Timing of millennial-scale climate change in Antarctica and Greenland during the last glacial period

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blunier, T; Brook, E J

    2001-01-01

    A precise relative chronology for Greenland and West Antarctic paleotemperature is extended to 90,000 years ago, based on correlation of atmospheric methane records from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 and Byrd ice cores. Over this period, the onset of seven major millennial-scale warmings in A....... This pattern provides further evidence for the operation of a "bipolar see-saw" in air temperatures and an oceanic teleconnection between the hemispheres on millennial time scales....

  20. Hindcasting the Continuum of Dansgaard-Oeschger variability: Mechanisms, Patterns and Timing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmermann, A.; Menviel, L.; Friedrich, T.; England, M. H.

    2013-12-01

    Millennial-scale variability associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) and Heinrich events (HE) is arguably one of the most puzzling climate phenomena ever discovered in paleoclimate archives of the last glacial period. With similar variability occurring during other glacial periods, it is very timely to identify the underlying mechanisms. Here, we set out to elucidate the dynamics of millennial-scale climate variability by conducting a transient global hindcast simulation with a 3-dimensional intermediate complexity Earth system model covering the period 50 ka B.P. to 30 ka B.P. The model is forced by time-varying external boundary conditions (greenhouse gases, orbital forcing, and ice-sheet orography and albedo) and anomalous North Atlantic freshwater fluxes, which capture the effects of Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet calving on millennial timescales. Together these forcings generate a realistic global climate trajectory, as demonstrated by an extensive model/paleo data comparison. Our analysis is consistent with the simple idea that variations in ice-sheet calving and related changes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation were the main driver for the continuum of MIS3 DO and HE variability seen in paleorecords across the globe. According to this scenario, timescale and abruptness of millennial-scale variability are primarily determined by the ice-sheet/ice-shelf calving processes, rather than by the thermohaline circulation. Using a number of high-resolution paleo records from other glacial periods we demonstrate that the proposed ice-sheet calving/AMOC response mechanism can universally explain the continuum of millennial-scale glacial variability during the Late Pleistocene.