WorldWideScience

Sample records for time-varying arrival rate

  1. Modelling tourists arrival using time varying parameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suciptawati, P.; Sukarsa, K. G.; Kencana, Eka N.

    2017-06-01

    The importance of tourism and its related sectors to support economic development and poverty reduction in many countries increase researchers’ attentions to study and model tourists’ arrival. This work is aimed to demonstrate time varying parameter (TVP) technique to model the arrival of Korean’s tourists to Bali. The number of Korean tourists whom visiting Bali for period January 2010 to December 2015 were used to model the number of Korean’s tourists to Bali (KOR) as dependent variable. The predictors are the exchange rate of Won to IDR (WON), the inflation rate in Korea (INFKR), and the inflation rate in Indonesia (INFID). Observing tourists visit to Bali tend to fluctuate by their nationality, then the model was built by applying TVP and its parameters were approximated using Kalman Filter algorithm. The results showed all of predictor variables (WON, INFKR, INFID) significantly affect KOR. For in-sample and out-of-sample forecast with ARIMA’s forecasted values for the predictors, TVP model gave mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as much as 11.24 percent and 12.86 percent, respectively.

  2. Flow time analysis of load management late arrival discrete time queueing system with dual service rate using hypo geometrical distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shah, S.A.; Shah, W.; Shaikh, F.K.

    2012-01-01

    Flow time analysis is a powerful concept to analyze the flow time of any arriving customer in any system at any instant. A load management mechanism can be employed very effectively in any queueing system by utilizing a system which provides probability of dual service rate. In this paper, we develop and demonstrate the flow and service processes transition diagram to determine the flow time of a customer in a load management late arrival state dependent finite discrete time queueing system with dual service rate where customers are hypo geometrically distributed. We compute the probability mass function of each starting state and total probability mass function. The obtained analytical results are validated with simulation results for varying values of arrival and service probabilities. (author)

  3. TIME-VARYING DYNAMICAL STAR FORMATION RATE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Eve J.; Chang, Philip; Murray, Norman, E-mail: evelee@berkeley.edu [Canadian Institute for Theoretical Astrophysics, 60 St. George Street, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 3H8 (Canada)

    2015-02-10

    We present numerical evidence of dynamic star formation in which the accreted stellar mass grows superlinearly with time, roughly as t {sup 2}. We perform simulations of star formation in self-gravitating hydrodynamic and magnetohydrodynamic turbulence that is continuously driven. By turning the self-gravity of the gas in the simulations on or off, we demonstrate that self-gravity is the dominant physical effect setting the mass accretion rate at early times before feedback effects take over, contrary to theories of turbulence-regulated star formation. We find that gravitational collapse steepens the density profile around stars, generating the power-law tail on what is otherwise a lognormal density probability distribution function. Furthermore, we find turbulent velocity profiles to flatten inside collapsing regions, altering the size-line width relation. This local flattening reflects enhancements of turbulent velocity on small scales, as verified by changes to the velocity power spectra. Our results indicate that gas self-gravity dynamically alters both density and velocity structures in clouds, giving rise to a time-varying star formation rate. We find that a substantial fraction of the gas that forms stars arrives via low-density flows, as opposed to accreting through high-density filaments.

  4. Fluid approximation analysis of a call center model with time-varying arrivals and after-call work

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yosuke Kawai

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Important features to be included in queueing-theoretic models of the call center operation are multiple servers, impatient customers, time-varying arrival process, and operator’s after-call work (ACW. We propose a fluid approximation technique for the queueing model with these features by extending the analysis of a similar model without ACW recently developed by Liu and Whitt (2012. Our model assumes that the service for each quantum of fluid consists of a sequence of two stages, the first stage for the conversation with a customer and the second stage for the ACW. When the duration of each stage has exponential, hyperexponential or hypo-exponential distribution, we derive the time-dependent behavior of the content of fluid in each stage of service as well as that in the waiting room. Numerical examples are shown to illustrate the system performance for the cases in which the input rate and/or the number of servers vary in sinusoidal fashion as well as in adaptive ways and in stationary cases.

  5. Entropy Rate of Time-Varying Wireless Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cika, Arta; Badiu, Mihai Alin; Coon, Justin P.

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we present a detailed framework to analyze the evolution of the random topology of a time-varying wireless network via the information theoretic notion of entropy rate. We consider a propagation channel varying over time with random node positions in a closed space and Rayleigh...... fading affecting the connections between nodes. The existence of an edge between two nodes at given locations is modeled by a Markov chain, enabling memory effects in network dynamics. We then derive a lower and an upper bound on the entropy rate of the spatiotemporal network. The entropy rate measures...

  6. Stochastic Resonance and First Arrival Time for Excitable Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duki, Solomon Fekade; Taye, Mesfin Asfaw

    2018-06-01

    We study the noise induced thermally activated barrier crossing of Brownian particles that hop in a piecewise linear potential. Using the exact analytic solutions and via numerical simulations not only we explore the dependence for the first passage time of a single particle but also we calculate the first arrival time for one particle out of N particles. The first arrival time decreases as the number of particles increases as expected. We then explore the thermally activated barrier crossing rate of the system in the presence of time varying signal. The dependence of signal to noise ratio SNR as well as the power amplification (η ) on model parameters is explored. η and SNR depict a pronounced peak at particular noise strength. In the presence of N particles, η is considerably amplified as N steps up showing the weak periodic signal plays a vital role in controlling the noise induced dynamics of the system. Moreover, for the sake of generality, the viscous friction γ is considered to decrease exponentially when the temperature T of the medium increases (γ =Be^{-A T}) as proposed originally by Reynolds (Philos Trans R Soc Lond 177:157, 1886).

  7. Estimating time-varying RSA to examine psychophysiological linkage of marital dyads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, Kathleen M; Gatzke-Kopp, Lisa M; Sandsten, Maria; Blandon, Alysia Y

    2015-08-01

    One of the primary tenets of polyvagal theory dictates that parasympathetic influence on heart rate, often estimated by respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), shifts rapidly in response to changing environmental demands. The current standard analytic approach of aggregating RSA estimates across time to arrive at one value fails to capture this dynamic property within individuals. By utilizing recent methodological developments that enable precise RSA estimates at smaller time intervals, we demonstrate the utility of computing time-varying RSA for assessing psychophysiological linkage (or synchrony) in husband-wife dyads using time-locked data collected in a naturalistic setting. © 2015 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  8. Time-varying exchange rate pass-through: experiences of some industrial countries

    OpenAIRE

    Toshitaka Sekine

    2006-01-01

    This paper estimates exchange rate pass-through of six major industrial countries using a time-varying parameter with stochastic volatility model. Exchange rate pass-through is divided into impacts of exchange rate fluctuations to import prices (first-stage pass-through) and those of import price movements to consumer prices (second-stage pass-through). The paper finds that both stages of pass-through have declined over time for all the sample countries. The decline in second-stage pass-throu...

  9. Sojourn time asymptotics in Processor Sharing queues with varying service rate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Egorova, R.; Mandjes, M.R.H.; Zwart, B.

    2007-01-01

    Abstract This paper addresses the sojourn time asymptotics for a GI/GI/⋅ queue operating under the Processor Sharing (PS) discipline with stochastically varying service rate. Our focus is on the logarithmic estimates of the tail of sojourn-time distribution, under the assumption that the job-size

  10. Modeling the time--varying subjective quality of HTTP video streams with rate adaptations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chao; Choi, Lark Kwon; de Veciana, Gustavo; Caramanis, Constantine; Heath, Robert W; Bovik, Alan C

    2014-05-01

    Newly developed hypertext transfer protocol (HTTP)-based video streaming technologies enable flexible rate-adaptation under varying channel conditions. Accurately predicting the users' quality of experience (QoE) for rate-adaptive HTTP video streams is thus critical to achieve efficiency. An important aspect of understanding and modeling QoE is predicting the up-to-the-moment subjective quality of a video as it is played, which is difficult due to hysteresis effects and nonlinearities in human behavioral responses. This paper presents a Hammerstein-Wiener model for predicting the time-varying subjective quality (TVSQ) of rate-adaptive videos. To collect data for model parameterization and validation, a database of longer duration videos with time-varying distortions was built and the TVSQs of the videos were measured in a large-scale subjective study. The proposed method is able to reliably predict the TVSQ of rate adaptive videos. Since the Hammerstein-Wiener model has a very simple structure, the proposed method is suitable for online TVSQ prediction in HTTP-based streaming.

  11. Quantum arrival times and operator normalization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hegerfeldt, Gerhard C.; Seidel, Dirk; Gonzalo Muga, J.

    2003-01-01

    A recent approach to arrival times used the fluorescence of an atom entering a laser illuminated region, and the resulting arrival-time distribution was close to the axiomatic distribution of Kijowski, but not exactly equal, neither in limiting cases nor after compensation of reflection losses by normalization on the level of expectation values. In this paper we employ a normalization on the level of operators, recently proposed in a slightly different context. We show that in this case the axiomatic arrival-time distribution of Kijowski is recovered as a limiting case. In addition, it is shown that Allcock's complex potential model is also a limit of the physically motivated fluorescence approach and connected to Kijowski's distribution through operator normalization

  12. Spectral information for detection of acoustic time to arrival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gordon, Michael S.; Russo, Frank A.; MacDonald, Ewen

    2013-01-01

    The exponential increase of intensity for an approaching sound source provides salient information for a listener to make judgments of time to arrival (TTA). Specifically, a listener will experience a greater rate of increasing intensity for higher than for lower frequencies during a sound source...

  13. Optimal control of arrival and service rates in tandem queues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moustafa, M.S.

    1995-08-01

    We consider n M/M/1 queues in series. At queue one the arrival and service rates are chosen in pair from a finite set whenever there are arrivals or service completions at any queue. Customers arriving to queue L (L=1,2,...,n-1) must go on to queue L+1 after finishing service at server L. Customers arriving to queue n leave the system after finishing service at the last server. At queues 2 to n arrival and service rates are fixed. The objective is to minimize the expected discounted cost of the system over finite and infinite horizons. We show that the optimal policy is of threshold type. In order to establish the result, we formulate the optimal control problem as a Linear Programming. (author). 9 refs

  14. Rate Control for Network-Coded Multipath Relaying with Time-Varying Connectivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-10

    Armen Babikyan, Nathaniel M. Jones, Thomas H. Shake, and Andrew P. Worthen MIT Lincoln Laboratory 244 Wood Street Lexington, MA 02420 DDRE, 1777...delay U U U U SAR 11 Zach Sweet 781-981-5997 1 Rate Control for Network-Coded Multipath Relaying with Time-Varying Connectivity Brooke Shrader, Armen

  15. Managing customer arrivals with time windows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Gang; Jiang, Liping

    2016-01-01

    Due to increasing container traffic and mega-ships, many seaports face challenges of huge amounts of truck arrivals and congestion problem at terminal gates, which affect port efficiency and generate serious air pollution. To solve this congestion problem, we propose a solution of managing truck...... arrivals with time windows based on the truck-vessel service relationship, specifically trucks delivering containers for the same vessel share one common time window. Time windows can be optimized with different strategies. In this paper, we first propose a framework for installing this solution...

  16. First arrival time picking for microseismic data based on DWSW algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yue; Wang, Yue; Lin, Hongbo; Zhong, Tie

    2018-03-01

    The first arrival time picking is a crucial step in microseismic data processing. When the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is low, however, it is difficult to get the first arrival time accurately with traditional methods. In this paper, we propose the double-sliding-window SW (DWSW) method based on the Shapiro-Wilk (SW) test. The DWSW method is used to detect the first arrival time by making full use of the differences between background noise and effective signals in the statistical properties. Specifically speaking, we obtain the moment corresponding to the maximum as the first arrival time of microseismic data when the statistic of our method reaches its maximum. Hence, in our method, there is no need to select the threshold, which makes the algorithm more facile when the SNR of microseismic data is low. To verify the reliability of the proposed method, a series of experiments is performed on both synthetic and field microseismic data. Our method is compared with the traditional short-time and long-time average (STA/LTA) method, the Akaike information criterion, and the kurtosis method. Analysis results indicate that the accuracy rate of the proposed method is superior to that of the other three methods when the SNR is as low as - 10 dB.

  17. Verification of real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations of CME arrival-time at the CCMC/SWRC from 2010-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wold, A. M.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Odstrcil, D.; MacNeice, P. J.; Jian, L. K.

    2017-12-01

    The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model CME propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC/Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). CCMC/SWRC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in-situ ICME leading edge measurements near Earth, STEREO-A and STEREO-B for simulations completed between March 2010-December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three spacecraft. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B and we observed an arrival (hit), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 ± 0.9 hours, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 hours. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A side-lobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 hours in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

  18. Equilibrium Arrival Times to Queues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breinbjerg, Jesper; Østerdal, Lars Peter

    We consider a non-cooperative queueing environment where a finite number of customers independently choose when to arrive at a queueing system that opens at a given point in time and serves customers on a last-come first-serve preemptive-resume (LCFS-PR) basis. Each customer has a service time...... requirement which is identically and independently distributed according to some general probability distribution, and they want to complete service as early as possible while minimizing the time spent in the queue. In this setting, we establish the existence of an arrival time strategy that constitutes...... a symmetric (mixed) Nash equilibrium, and show that there is at most one symmetric equilibrium. We provide a numerical method to compute this equilibrium and demonstrate by a numerical example that the social effciency can be lower than the effciency induced by a similar queueing system that serves customers...

  19. The arrival time distribution of muons in extensive air showers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Walt, D.J.

    1984-01-01

    An experiment was done to investigate the lateral dependence of the muon arrival time distribution in extensive air showers at small core distances. In the present experiment the muon arrival time distribution was investigated by measuring the relative arrival times between single muons in five fast Cerenkov detectors beneath 500g/cm 2 of concrete and at an atmospheric depth of 880g/cm 2 . It is shown that, although it is not possible to determine the arrival time distribution as such, it is possible to interpret the relative arrival times between muons in terms of the differences between the order statistics of a sample drawn from the arrival time distribution. The relationship between the arrival time distribution of muons relative to the first detected muon and the muon arrival time distribution is also derived. It was found that the dispersion of the muon arrival time distribution does not increase significantly with increasing core distance between 10m and 60m from the core. A comparison with theoretical distributions obtained from model calculations for proton initiated showers indicate that 1. the mean delay of muons with respect to the first detected muon is significantly larger than that expected from the model and 2. the observed dispersion is also significantly larger than the predicted dispersion for core distances between 10m and 60m

  20. PERAMALAN JUMLAH KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN AUSTRALIA YANG BERKUNJUNG KE BALI MENGGUNAKAN MODEL TIME VARYING PARAMETER (TVP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I PUTU GEDE DIAN GERRY SUWEDAYANA

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to forecast the number of Australian tourists arrival to Bali using Time Varying Parameter (TVP model based on inflation of Indonesia and exchange rate AUD to IDR from January 2010 – December 2015 as explanatory variables. TVP model is specified in a state space model and estimated by Kalman filter algorithm. The result shows that the TVP model can be used to forecast the number of Australian tourists arrival to Bali because it satisfied the assumption that the residuals are distributed normally and the residuals in the measurement and transition equations are not correlated. The estimated TVP model is . This model has a value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE is equal to dan root mean square percentage error (RMSPE is equal to . The number of Australian tourists arrival to Bali for the next five periods is predicted: ; ; ; ; and (January - May 2016.

  1. Two Coupled Queues with Vastly Different Arrival Rates: Critical Loading Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Knessl

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider two coupled queues with a generalized processor sharing service discipline. The second queue has a much smaller Poisson arrival rate than the first queue, while the customer service times are of comparable magnitude. The processor sharing server devotes most of its resources to the first queue, except when it is empty. The fraction of resources devoted to the second queue is small, of the same order as the ratio of the arrival rates. We assume that the primary queue is heavily loaded and that the secondary queue is critically loaded. If we let the small arrival rate to the secondary queue be O(ε, where 0≤ε≪1, then in this asymptotic limit the number of customers in the first queue will be large, of order O(ε-1, while that in the second queue will be somewhat smaller, of order O(ε-1/2. We obtain a two-dimensional diffusion approximation for this model and explicitly solve for the joint steady state probability distribution of the numbers of customers in the two queues. This work complements that in (Morrison, 2010, which the second queue was assumed to be heavily or lightly loaded, leading to mean queue lengths that were O(ε-1 or O(1, respectively.

  2. Verification of real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations of CME arrival-time at the CCMC from 2010 to 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wold, Alexandra M.; Mays, M. Leila; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Jian, Lan K.; Odstrcil, Dusan; MacNeice, Peter

    2018-03-01

    The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in situ interplanetary coronal mass ejection leading edge measurements at Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Behind (STEREO-B), and Earth (Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010 and December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 ± 0.9 h, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 h. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 h in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

  3. Development of the town data base: Estimates of exposure rates and times of fallout arrival near the Nevada Test Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, C.B.; McArthur, R.D.; Hutchinson, S.W.

    1994-09-01

    As part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Off-Site Radiation Exposure Review Project, the time of fallout arrival and the H+12 exposure rate were estimated for populated locations in Arizona, California, Nevada, and Utah that were affected by fallout from one or more nuclear tests at the Nevada Test Site. Estimates of exposure rate were derived from measured values recorded before and after each test by fallout monitors in the field. The estimate for a given location was obtained by retrieving from a data base all measurements made in the vicinity, decay-correcting them to H+12, and calculating an average. Estimates were also derived from maps produced after most events that show isopleths of exposure rate and time of fallout arrival. Both sets of isopleths on these maps were digitized, and kriging was used to interpolate values at the nodes of a 10-km grid covering the pattern. The values at any location within the grid were then estimated from the values at the surrounding grid nodes. Estimates of dispersion (standard deviation) were also calculated. The Town Data Base contains the estimates for all combinations of location and nuclear event for which the estimated mean H+12 exposure rate was greater than three times background. A listing of the data base is included as an appendix. The information was used by other project task groups to estimate the radiation dose that off-site populations and individuals may have received as a result of exposure to fallout from Nevada nuclear tests

  4. Traffic Incident Clearance Time and Arrival Time Prediction Based on Hazard Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang beibei Ji

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of incident duration is not only important information of Traffic Incident Management System, but also an effective input for travel time prediction. In this paper, the hazard based prediction models are developed for both incident clearance time and arrival time. The data are obtained from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads’ STREAMS Incident Management System (SIMS for one year ending in November 2010. The best fitting distributions are drawn for both clearance and arrival time for 3 types of incident: crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard. The results show that Gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull are the best fit for crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard incident, respectively. The obvious impact factors are given for crash clearance time and arrival time. The quantitative influences for crash and hazard incident are presented for both clearance and arrival. The model accuracy is analyzed at the end.

  5. The effect of patients’ time of arrival at the hospital on the rate of Thrombolytic therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toba Kazemi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The honorable editor-in-chief of the Journal of ARYA We read with interest the article of Dr. Maleki that has recently been published.1 We conducted a similar study in Birjand Vali-e-Asr Hospital in 2009-2010. This study was done on 125 patients with STEMI with a mean age of 59.2 ± 11.9 years. In this study, 65.6% of patients underwent thrombolytic therapy. This showed a crucial increase compared to the previous study in Birjand in 2003 that showed 17.3% of patients underwent thrombolytic therapy.2 Mean door to needle time was 74.8 ± 42.7 minutes (median 60 minutes. Thrombolytic therapy showed no difference for difference in sex (69.4% in males, and 51.9% in females, P = 0.08. However, in working staff (86.7% in employees, and 51.2% in farmers/workers, P = 0.003, in highly educated individuals (92.3% at university level, and 45.5% illiterate, P < 0.001, and in citizens (73.2% in urban, and 51.2% in rural citizens, P = 0.01 there was a higher percentage of thrombolytic therapy. The main reason for this difference between them is earlier arrival to the hospital since the onset of symptoms. The arrival time in the city's residents was 166.7 ± 179.6 minutes, but for villagers it was 221.6 ± 112 minutes (P = 0.001. Furthermore, the rate of thrombolytic therapy during the night was not significantly different compared to the rest of the day (73% during morning, 62.9% during afternoon, and 62.3% during night, P = 0.52. The patient's arrival time to the hospital at night was not different compared to the rest of the day (166.9 ± 174.7 minutes in the morning shift, and 148.2 ± 85.2 minutes during the night shift, P = 0.63. Visiting patients during the night shift was similar to other shifts; visit by intern was 12.3 ± 9.1 minutes during the morning shift, and 14.1 ± 9.3 minutes during the night shift (P = 0.73. The rate of thrombolytic therapy in our study was similar to the study by Dr. Maleki;1 however, door to needle time was longer. In our

  6. Estimating epidemic arrival times using linear spreading theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lawrence M.; Holzer, Matt; Shapiro, Anne

    2018-01-01

    We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is composed of a system of ordinary differential equations describing a meta-population susceptible-infected-recovered compartmental model defined on a network where each node represents a city and the edges represent the flight paths connecting cities. Making use of the linear determinacy of the system, we consider spreading speeds and arrival times in the system linearized about the unstable disease free state and compare these to arrival times in the nonlinear system. Two predictions are presented. The first is based upon expansion of the heat kernel for the linearized system. The second assumes that the dominant transmission pathway between any two cities can be approximated by a one dimensional lattice or a homogeneous tree and gives a uniform prediction for arrival times independent of the specific network features. We test these predictions on a real network describing worldwide airline traffic.

  7. Particle deposition from aqueous suspensions in turbulent pipe flow - a comparison of observed deposition rates and predicted arrival rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodliffe, R.S.

    1979-11-01

    At the present time, there appear to be only four adequately controlled and characterised experimental studies of particle deposition from single phase water in turbulent pipe flow. These are used to illustrate the ranges of applicability of methods for predicting particle arrival rates at tube walls. Arrival rates are predicted from mass transfer correlations and the theory of Reeks and Skyrme (1976) when transport is limited by Brownian diffusion and inertial behaviour, respectively. The regimes in which finite particle size limits the application of these methods are defined and preliminary consideration is given to the conditions under which gravitational settling may make a contribution to deposition in vertically mounted tubes. (author)

  8. Contributed Review: Source-localization algorithms and applications using time of arrival and time difference of arrival measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xinya; Deng, Zhiqun Daniel; Rauchenstein, Lynn T.; Carlson, Thomas J.

    2016-04-01

    Locating the position of fixed or mobile sources (i.e., transmitters) based on measurements obtained from sensors (i.e., receivers) is an important research area that is attracting much interest. In this paper, we review several representative localization algorithms that use time of arrivals (TOAs) and time difference of arrivals (TDOAs) to achieve high signal source position estimation accuracy when a transmitter is in the line-of-sight of a receiver. Circular (TOA) and hyperbolic (TDOA) position estimation approaches both use nonlinear equations that relate the known locations of receivers and unknown locations of transmitters. Estimation of the location of transmitters using the standard nonlinear equations may not be very accurate because of receiver location errors, receiver measurement errors, and computational efficiency challenges that result in high computational burdens. Least squares and maximum likelihood based algorithms have become the most popular computational approaches to transmitter location estimation. In this paper, we summarize the computational characteristics and position estimation accuracies of various positioning algorithms. By improving methods for estimating the time-of-arrival of transmissions at receivers and transmitter location estimation algorithms, transmitter location estimation may be applied across a range of applications and technologies such as radar, sonar, the Global Positioning System, wireless sensor networks, underwater animal tracking, mobile communications, and multimedia.

  9. True Time API Link (real time arrival info)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Allegheny County / City of Pittsburgh / Western PA Regional Data Center — This link will take you to the site where you can create an account to access Port Authority's real time arrival information. To request access to Port Authority's...

  10. A finite capacity queue with Markovian arrivals and two servers with group services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Chakravarthy

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we consider a finite capacity queuing system in which arrivals are governed by a Markovian arrival process. The system is attended by two exponential servers, who offer services in groups of varying sizes. The service rates may depend on the number of customers in service. Using Markov theory, we study this finite capacity queuing model in detail by obtaining numerically stable expressions for (a the steady-state queue length densities at arrivals and at arbitrary time points; (b the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of the stationary waiting time distribution of an admitted customer at points of arrivals. The stationary waiting time distribution is shown to be of phase type when the interarrival times are of phase type. Efficient algorithmic procedures for computing the steady-state queue length densities and other system performance measures are discussed. A conjecture on the nature of the mean waiting time is proposed. Some illustrative numerical examples are presented.

  11. Two-Step Time of Arrival Estimation for Pulse-Based Ultra-Wideband Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Vincent Poor

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available In cooperative localization systems, wireless nodes need to exchange accurate position-related information such as time-of-arrival (TOA and angle-of-arrival (AOA, in order to obtain accurate location information. One alternative for providing accurate position-related information is to use ultra-wideband (UWB signals. The high time resolution of UWB signals presents a potential for very accurate positioning based on TOA estimation. However, it is challenging to realize very accurate positioning systems in practical scenarios, due to both complexity/cost constraints and adverse channel conditions such as multipath propagation. In this paper, a two-step TOA estimation algorithm is proposed for UWB systems in order to provide accurate TOA estimation under practical constraints. In order to speed up the estimation process, the first step estimates a coarse TOA of the received signal based on received signal energy. Then, in the second step, the arrival time of the first signal path is estimated by considering a hypothesis testing approach. The proposed scheme uses low-rate correlation outputs and is able to perform accurate TOA estimation in reasonable time intervals. The simulation results are presented to analyze the performance of the estimator.

  12. CAT-PUMA: CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jiajia; Ye, Yudong; Shen, Chenglong; Wang, Yuming; Erdélyi, Robert

    2018-04-01

    CAT-PUMA (CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms) quickly and accurately predicts the arrival of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) of CME arrival time. The software was trained via detailed analysis of CME features and solar wind parameters using 182 previously observed geo-effective partial-/full-halo CMEs and uses algorithms of the Support Vector Machine (SVM) to make its predictions, which can be made within minutes of providing the necessary input parameters of a CME.

  13. Arrival time pattern and waiting time distribution of patients in the emergency outpatient department of a tertiary level health care institution of North India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yogesh Tiwari

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Emergency Department (ED of tertiary health care institute in India is mostly overcrowded, over utilized and inappropriately staffed. The challenges of overcrowded EDs and ill-managed patient flow and admission processes result in excessively long waits for patients. Aim: The objective of the present study was to analyze the patient flow system by assessing the arrival and waiting time distribution of patients in an Emergency out Patient Department (EOPD. Materials and Methods: This short cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted in the EOPD of a Tertiary level health care Institution in North India in the month of May, 2011. The data was obtained from 591 patients, who were present in the EOPD during the month of May, 2011. The waiting time, inter arrival time between two consecutive patients were calculated in addition to the daily census data (discharge rate, admission rate and transfer out rates etc. of the emergency. Results: Arrival time pattern of patients in the EOPD was highly stochastic with the peak arrival hours to be "9.00-12.00 h" in which around 26.3% patients arrived in the EOPD. The primary waiting areas of patients included patients "under observation" (29.6%; "waiting for routine diagnostic tests" (16.4% and "waiting for discharge" (14.6%. Around 71% patients were waiting due to reasons within emergency complex. Conclusion: The patient flow of the ED could only be addressed by multifaceted, multidisciplinary and hospital wide approach.

  14. A FIFO based neutron arrival time collection technique for assay of plutonium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parthasarathy, R.; Saisubalakshmi, D.; Venkatasubramani, C.R.

    2004-01-01

    The system assays plutonium by counting the time correlated neutrons emitted by the spontaneous fissions of the even-even Pu isotopes in the presence of random neutron background, originating principally from (a,n) reactions in the material. The correlation technique discussed in this paper utilizes twofold neutron coincidence counting but the system is proposed to be enhanced for neutron multiplicity counting. A microcontroller based data acquisition system has been developed using a couple of fast FIFO 2kX9 bit memory ICs and a 16 bit counter for identifying time-correlated neutrons. Since the neutron pulses are arriving at a rapid rate, the incoming pulses are buffered in the FIFO and then transferred to PC by the microcontroller through the parallel port. The correlation analysis based on this time arrival information is done in the PC off-line. (author)

  15. Robustness Analysis of Hybrid Stochastic Neural Networks with Neutral Terms and Time-Varying Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunmei Wu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the robustness of global exponential stability of hybrid stochastic neural networks subject to neutral terms and time-varying delays simultaneously. Given globally exponentially stable hybrid stochastic neural networks, we characterize the upper bounds of contraction coefficients of neutral terms and time-varying delays by using the transcendental equation. Moreover, we prove theoretically that, for any globally exponentially stable hybrid stochastic neural networks, if additive neutral terms and time-varying delays are smaller than the upper bounds arrived, then the perturbed neural networks are guaranteed to also be globally exponentially stable. Finally, a numerical simulation example is given to illustrate the presented criteria.

  16. Quantum arrival-time distributions from intensity functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wlodarz, Joachim

    2002-01-01

    is similar in nature to other time-dependent arrival-type processes occurring, e.g., in population biology or queue theory. A simple but illustrative example related to the well-known Wigner discussion of the time-energy uncertainty relation is given and the numerical results obtained are compared...

  17. Estimating bus passenger waiting times from incomplete bus arrivals data

    OpenAIRE

    McLeod, F.N.

    2007-01-01

    This paper considers the problem of estimating bus passenger waiting times at bus stops using incomplete bus arrivals data. This is of importance to bus operators and regulators as passenger waiting time is a key performance measure. Average waiting times are usually estimated from bus headways, that is, time gaps between buses. It is both time-consuming and expensive to measure bus arrival times manually so methods using automatic vehicle location systems are attractive; however, these syste...

  18. Contributed Review: Source-localization algorithms and applications using time of arrival and time difference of arrival measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Xinya [Energy and Environment Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington 99352, USA; Deng, Zhiqun Daniel [Energy and Environment Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington 99352, USA; Rauchenstein, Lynn T. [Energy and Environment Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington 99352, USA; Carlson, Thomas J. [Energy and Environment Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington 99352, USA

    2016-04-01

    Locating the position of fixed or mobile sources (i.e., transmitters) based on received measurements from sensors is an important research area that is attracting much research interest. In this paper, we present localization algorithms using time of arrivals (TOA) and time difference of arrivals (TDOA) to achieve high accuracy under line-of-sight conditions. The circular (TOA) and hyperbolic (TDOA) location systems both use nonlinear equations that relate the locations of the sensors and tracked objects. These nonlinear equations can develop accuracy challenges because of the existence of measurement errors and efficiency challenges that lead to high computational burdens. Least squares-based and maximum likelihood-based algorithms have become the most popular categories of location estimators. We also summarize the advantages and disadvantages of various positioning algorithms. By improving measurement techniques and localization algorithms, localization applications can be extended into the signal-processing-related domains of radar, sonar, the Global Positioning System, wireless sensor networks, underwater animal tracking, mobile communications, and multimedia.

  19. Staffing a call center with uncertain non-stationary arrival rate and flexibility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liao, S.; van Delft, C.; Jouini, O.; Koole, G.M.

    2012-01-01

    We consider a multi-period staffing problem in a single-shift call center. The call center handles inbound calls, as well as some alternative back-office jobs. The call arrival process is assumed to follow a doubly non-stationary stochastic process with a random mean arrival rate. The inbound calls

  20. A simulation study of Linsley's approach to infer elongation rate and fluctuations of the EAS maximum depth from muon arrival time distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badea, A.F.; Brancus, I.M.; Rebel, H.; Haungs, A.; Oehlschlaeger, J.; Zazyan, M.

    1999-01-01

    The average depth of the maximum X m of the EAS (Extensive Air Shower) development depends on the energy E 0 and the mass of the primary particle, and its dependence from the energy is traditionally expressed by the so-called elongation rate D e defined as change in the average depth of the maximum per decade of E 0 i.e. D e = dX m /dlog 10 E 0 . Invoking the superposition model approximation i.e. assuming that a heavy primary (A) has the same shower elongation rate like a proton, but scaled with energies E 0 /A, one can write X m = X init + D e log 10 (E 0 /A). In 1977 an indirect approach studying D e has been suggested by Linsley. This approach can be applied to shower parameters which do not depend explicitly on the energy of the primary particle, but do depend on the depth of observation X and on the depth X m of shower maximum. The distribution of the EAS muon arrival times, measured at a certain observation level relatively to the arrival time of the shower core reflect the pathlength distribution of the muon travel from locus of production (near the axis) to the observation locus. The basic a priori assumption is that we can associate the mean value or median T of the time distribution to the height of the EAS maximum X m , and that we can express T = f(X,X m ). In order to derive from the energy variation of the arrival time quantities information about elongation rate, some knowledge is required about F i.e. F = - ∂ T/∂X m ) X /∂(T/∂X) X m , in addition to the variations with the depth of observation and the zenith-angle (θ) dependence, respectively. Thus ∂T/∂log 10 E 0 | X = - F·D e ·1/X v ·∂T/∂secθ| E 0 . In a similar way the fluctuations σ(X m ) of X m may be related to the fluctuations σ(T) of T i.e. σ(T) = - σ(X m )· F σ ·1/X v ·∂T/∂secθ| E 0 , with F σ being the corresponding scaling factor for the fluctuation of F. By simulations of the EAS development using the Monte Carlo code CORSIKA the energy and angle

  1. An Exact Solution of the Gamma Ray Burst Arrival Time Analysis ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    An Exact Solution of the Gamma Ray Burst Arrival Time Analysis. Problem. S. Sinha ISRO Satellite Center, Bangalore 560 017, India. Abstract. An analytical solution of the GRB arrival time analysis is presented. The errors in the position of the GRB resulting from timing and position errors of different satellites are calculated.

  2. Empirical estimation of the arrival time of ICME Shocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaltout, Mosalam

    Empirical estimation of the arrival time of ICME Shocks Mosalam Shaltout1 ,M.Youssef 1and R.Mawad2 1 National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG) ,Helwan -Cairo-Egypt Email: mosalamshaltout@hotmail.com 2 Faculty of Science-Monifiia University-Physics Department-Shiben Al-Koum -Monifiia-Egypt We are got the Data of the SSC events from Preliminary Reports of the ISGI (Institut de Physique du Globe, France) .Also we are selected the same CME interval 1996-2005 from SOHO/LASCO/C2.We have estimated the arrival time of ICME shocks during solar cycle 23rd (1996-2005), we take the Sudden storm commencement SSC as a indicator of the arrival of CMEs at the Earth's Magnetosphere (ICME).Under our model ,we selected 203 ICME shock-SSC associated events, we got an imperial relation between CME velocity and their travel time, from which we obtained high correlation between them, R=0.75.

  3. A study on the impact of prioritising emergency department arrivals on the patient waiting time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Bockstal, Ellen; Maenhout, Broos

    2018-05-03

    In the past decade, the crowding of the emergency department has gained considerable attention of researchers as the number of medical service providers is typically insufficient to fulfil the demand for emergency care. In this paper, we solve the stochastic emergency department workforce planning problem and consider the planning of nurses and physicians simultaneously for a real-life case study in Belgium. We study the patient arrival pattern of the emergency department in depth and consider different patient acuity classes by disaggregating the arrival pattern. We determine the personnel staffing requirements and the design of the shifts based on the patient arrival rates per acuity class such that the resource staffing cost and the weighted patient waiting time are minimised. In order to solve this multi-objective optimisation problem, we construct a Pareto set of optimal solutions via the -constraints method. For a particular staffing composition, the proposed model minimises the patient waiting time subject to upper bounds on the staffing size using the Sample Average Approximation Method. In our computational experiments, we discern the impact of prioritising the emergency department arrivals. Triaging results in lower patient waiting times for higher priority acuity classes and to a higher waiting time for the lowest priority class, which does not require immediate care. Moreover, we perform a sensitivity analysis to verify the impact of the arrival and service pattern characteristics, the prioritisation weights between different acuity classes and the incorporated shift flexibility in the model.

  4. The impact of monetary policy and exchange rate shocks in Poland: evidence from a time-varying VAR

    OpenAIRE

    Arratibel, Olga; Michaelis, Henrike

    2014-01-01

    This paper follows the Bayesian time-varying VAR approach with stochastic volatility developed by Primiceri (2005), to analyse whether the reaction of output and prices to interest rate and exchange rate shocks has changed across time (1996-2012) in the Polish economy. The empirical findings show that: (1) output appears more responsive to an interest rate shock at the beginning of our sample. Since 2000, absorbing this shock has become less costly in terms of output, notwithstanding some rev...

  5. Operator-normalized quantum arrival times in the presence of interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hegerfeldt, G.C.; Seidel, D.; Muga, J.G.; Navarro, B.

    2004-01-01

    We model ideal arrival-time measurements for free quantum particles and for particles subject to an external interaction by means of a narrow and weak absorbing potential. This approach is related to the operational approach of measuring the first photon emitted from a two-level atom illuminated by a laser. By operator normalizing the resulting time-of-arrival distribution, a distribution is obtained which for freely moving particles not only recovers the axiomatically derived distribution of Kijowski for states with purely positive momenta but is also applicable to general momentum components. For particles interacting with a square barrier the mean arrival time and corresponding 'tunneling time' obtained at the transmission side of the barrier become independent of the barrier width (Hartman effect) for arbitrarily wide barriers, i.e., without the transition to the ultraopaque, classical-like regime dominated by wave packet components above the barrier

  6. Pemodelan Markov Switching Dengan Time-varying Transition Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Savitri, Anggita Puri; Warsito, Budi; Rahmawati, Rita

    2016-01-01

    Exchange rate or currency is an economic variable which reflects country's state of economy. It fluctuates over time because of its ability to switch the condition or regime caused by economic and political factors. The changes in the exchange rate are depreciation and appreciation. Therefore, it could be modeled using Markov Switching with Time-Varying Transition Probability which observe the conditional changes and use information variable. From this model, time-varying transition probabili...

  7. Estimation of time-varying growth, uptake and excretion rates from dynamic metabolomics data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cinquemani, Eugenio; Laroute, Valérie; Cocaign-Bousquet, Muriel; de Jong, Hidde; Ropers, Delphine

    2017-07-15

    Technological advances in metabolomics have made it possible to monitor the concentration of extracellular metabolites over time. From these data, it is possible to compute the rates of uptake and excretion of the metabolites by a growing cell population, providing precious information on the functioning of intracellular metabolism. The computation of the rate of these exchange reactions, however, is difficult to achieve in practice for a number of reasons, notably noisy measurements, correlations between the concentration profiles of the different extracellular metabolites, and discontinuties in the profiles due to sudden changes in metabolic regime. We present a method for precisely estimating time-varying uptake and excretion rates from time-series measurements of extracellular metabolite concentrations, specifically addressing all of the above issues. The estimation problem is formulated in a regularized Bayesian framework and solved by a combination of extended Kalman filtering and smoothing. The method is shown to improve upon methods based on spline smoothing of the data. Moreover, when applied to two actual datasets, the method recovers known features of overflow metabolism in Escherichia coli and Lactococcus lactis , and provides evidence for acetate uptake by L. lactis after glucose exhaustion. The results raise interesting perspectives for further work on rate estimation from measurements of intracellular metabolites. The Matlab code for the estimation method is available for download at https://team.inria.fr/ibis/rate-estimation-software/ , together with the datasets. eugenio.cinquemani@inria.fr. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  8. Automatic pickup of arrival time of channel wave based on multi-channel constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bao-Li

    2018-03-01

    Accurately detecting the arrival time of a channel wave in a coal seam is very important for in-seam seismic data processing. The arrival time greatly affects the accuracy of the channel wave inversion and the computed tomography (CT) result. However, because the signal-to-noise ratio of in-seam seismic data is reduced by the long wavelength and strong frequency dispersion, accurately timing the arrival of channel waves is extremely difficult. For this purpose, we propose a method that automatically picks up the arrival time of channel waves based on multi-channel constraints. We first estimate the Jaccard similarity coefficient of two ray paths, then apply it as a weight coefficient for stacking the multichannel dispersion spectra. The reasonableness and effectiveness of the proposed method is verified in an actual data application. Most importantly, the method increases the degree of automation and the pickup precision of the channel-wave arrival time.

  9. Flexible Demand Management under Time-Varying Prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yong

    In this dissertation, the problem of flexible demand management under time-varying prices is studied. This generic problem has many applications, which usually have multiple periods in which decisions on satisfying demand need to be made, and prices in these periods are time-varying. Examples of such applications include multi-period procurement problem, operating room scheduling, and user-end demand scheduling in the Smart Grid, where the last application is used as the main motivating story throughout the dissertation. The current grid is experiencing an upgrade with lots of new designs. What is of particular interest is the idea of passing time-varying prices that reflect electricity market conditions to end users as incentives for load shifting. One key component, consequently, is the demand management system at the user-end. The objective of the system is to find the optimal trade-off between cost saving and discomfort increment resulted from load shifting. In this dissertation, we approach this problem from the following aspects: (1) construct a generic model, solve for Pareto optimal solutions, and analyze the robust solution that optimizes the worst-case payoffs, (2) extend to a distribution-free model for multiple types of demand (appliances), for which an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) approach is developed, and (3) design other efficient algorithms for practical purposes of the flexible demand management system. We first construct a novel multi-objective flexible demand management model, in which there are a finite number of periods with time-varying prices, and demand arrives in each period. In each period, the decision maker chooses to either satisfy or defer outstanding demand to minimize costs and discomfort over a certain number of periods. We consider both the deterministic model, models with stochastic demand or prices, and when only partial information about the stochastic demand or prices is known. We first analyze the stochastic

  10. Controllable deterioration rate for time-dependent demand and time-varying holding cost

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mishra Vinod Kumar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we develop an inventory model for non-instantaneous deteriorating items under the consideration of the facts: deterioration rate can be controlled by using the preservation technology (PT during deteriorating period, and holding cost and demand rate both are linear function of time, which was treated as constant in most of the deteriorating inventory models. So in this paper, we developed a deterministic inventory model for non-instantaneous deteriorating items in which both demand rate and holding cost are a linear function of time, deterioration rate is constant, backlogging rate is variable and depend on the length of the next replenishment, shortages are allowed and partially backlogged. The model is solved analytically by minimizing the total cost of the inventory system. The model can be applied to optimizing the total inventory cost of non-instantaneous deteriorating items inventory for the business enterprises, where the preservation technology is used to control the deterioration rate, and demand & holding cost both are a linear function of time.

  11. Time-varying surrogate data to assess nonlinearity in nonstationary time series: application to heart rate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faes, Luca; Zhao, He; Chon, Ki H; Nollo, Giandomenico

    2009-03-01

    We propose a method to extend to time-varying (TV) systems the procedure for generating typical surrogate time series, in order to test the presence of nonlinear dynamics in potentially nonstationary signals. The method is based on fitting a TV autoregressive (AR) model to the original series and then regressing the model coefficients with random replacements of the model residuals to generate TV AR surrogate series. The proposed surrogate series were used in combination with a TV sample entropy (SE) discriminating statistic to assess nonlinearity in both simulated and experimental time series, in comparison with traditional time-invariant (TIV) surrogates combined with the TIV SE discriminating statistic. Analysis of simulated time series showed that using TIV surrogates, linear nonstationary time series may be erroneously regarded as nonlinear and weak TV nonlinearities may remain unrevealed, while the use of TV AR surrogates markedly increases the probability of a correct interpretation. Application to short (500 beats) heart rate variability (HRV) time series recorded at rest (R), after head-up tilt (T), and during paced breathing (PB) showed: 1) modifications of the SE statistic that were well interpretable with the known cardiovascular physiology; 2) significant contribution of nonlinear dynamics to HRV in all conditions, with significant increase during PB at 0.2 Hz respiration rate; and 3) a disagreement between TV AR surrogates and TIV surrogates in about a quarter of the series, suggesting that nonstationarity may affect HRV recordings and bias the outcome of the traditional surrogate-based nonlinearity test.

  12. The incorporation of fault zone head wave and direct wave secondary arrival times and arrival polarizations into seismic tomography: Application to the Parkfield, California area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennington, N. L.; Thurber, C. H.; Peng, Z.; Zhao, P.

    2012-12-01

    We present a 3D P-wave velocity (Vp) model of the Parkfield region that utilizes existing P-wave arrival time data, including fault zone head waves (FZHW), plus new data from direct wave secondary arrivals (DWSA). The first-arrival and DWSA travel times are obtained as the global and local minimum travel time paths, respectively. The inclusion of DWSA results in as much as a 10% increase in the across-fault velocity contrast for the Vp model at Parkfield relative to Thurber et al. (2006). Viewed along strike, three pronounced velocity contrast regions are observed: a pair of strong positive velocity contrasts (SW fast), one NW of the 1966 Parkfield hypocenter and the other SE of the 2004 Parkfield hypocenter, and a strong negative velocity contrast (NE fast) between the two hypocenters. The negative velocity contrast partially to entirely encompasses peak coseismic slip estimated in several slip models for the 2004 earthquake, suggesting that the negative velocity contrast played a part in defining the rupture patch of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. We expand on this work by modifying our seismic tomography algorithm to incorporate arrival polarizations (azimuths). Synthetic tests will be presented to demonstrate the improvements in velocity structure when arrival polarizations are incorporated. These tests will compare the synthetic model recovered when FZHW/DWSA arrivals as well as existing P-wave arrival time data are inverted to that recovered with the same dataset with the inclusion of arrival polarizations. We plan to extend this work to carry out a full scale seismic tomography/relocation inversion at Parkfield, CA utilizing arrival polarizations from all first-P arrivals, and FZHW/DWSA arrivals as well as existing P-wave arrival time data. This effort requires the determination of polarization data for all P-waves and FZHW's at Parkfield. To this end, we use changes in the arrival azimuth from fault normal to source-receiver direction to identify FZHW and

  13. Estimation of exponential convergence rate and exponential stability for neural networks with time-varying delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tu Fenghua; Liao Xiaofeng

    2005-01-01

    We study the problem of estimating the exponential convergence rate and exponential stability for neural networks with time-varying delay. Some criteria for exponential stability are derived by using the linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach. They are less conservative than the existing ones. Some analytical methods are employed to investigate the bounds on the interconnection matrix and activation functions so that the systems are exponentially stable

  14. On the link between oil price and exchange rate: A time-varying VAR parameter approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bremond, Vincent; Razafindrabe, Tovonony; Hache, Emmanuel

    2015-07-01

    The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between the effective exchange rate of the dollar and the oil price dynamics from 1976 to 2013. In this context, we propose to explore the economic literature dedicated to financial channels factors (exchange rate, monetary policy, and international liquidity) that could affect the oil price dynamics. In addition to oil prices and the effective exchange rate of the dollar, we use the dry cargo index as a proxy for the real economic activity and prices for precious and industrial raw materials. Using a Bayesian time-varying parameter vector auto-regressive estimation, our main results show that the US Dollar effective exchange rate elasticity of the crude oil prices is not constant across the time and remains negative from 1989. It then highlights that a depreciation of the effective exchange rate of the dollar leads to an increase of the crude oil prices. Our paper also demonstrates the growing influence of financial and commodities markets development upon the global economy. (authors)

  15. Effect of milk sample delivery methods and arrival conditions on bacterial contamination rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinsmore, R P; English, P B; Matthews, J C; Sears, P M

    1990-07-01

    A cross sectional study was performed of factors believed to contribute to the contamination of bovine milk sample cultures submitted to the Ithaca Regional Laboratory of the Quality Milk Promotion Services/New York State Mastitis Control. Of 871 samples entered in the study, 137 (15.7%) were contaminated. There were interactions between the sample source (veterinarian vs dairyman), delivery method, and time between sample collection and arrival at the laboratory. If only those samples collected and hand delivered by the dairyman within 1 day of collection were compared to a like subset of samples collected and hand delivered by veterinarians, no statistically significant differences in milk sample contamination rate (MSCR) were found. Samples were delivered to the laboratory by hand, US Postal Service, United Parcel Service, via the New York State College of Veterinary Medicine Diagnostic Laboratory, or Northeast Dairy Herd Improvement Association Courier. The MSCR was only 7.6% for hand delivered samples, while 26% of Postal Service samples were contaminated. These rates differed significantly from other delivery methods (P less than 0.0001). The USPS samples arrived a longer time after sampling than did samples sent by other routes, and time had a significant effect on MSCR (0 to 1 day, 8.9%; greater than 1 day, 25.9%; P less than 0.01). Samples packaged with ice packs sent by routes other than the Postal Service had a lower MSCR than those not packaged with ice packs, but ice packs did not reduce the MSCR for samples sent by the Postal Service.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  16. Arrival time and incidence angle distributions of extensive air showers (EAS) muons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brancus, I.M.; Duma, M.; Vulpescu, B.; Foeller, M.; Rebel, H.; Voelker, G.; Chilingarian, A.A.

    1995-01-01

    The arrival time distributions of the muons can be related to the longitudinal EAS development and may provide additional information about the nature of the primary. Based on EAS simulations using the Monte-Carlo code CORSIKA, the correlations between arrival time and incidence angle distributions have been investigated in a case of a set of ideal detectors (10 m x 10 m) placed at various distances from the shower core. Applying advanced statistical techniques based on Bayes decision rule and non-parametric multivariate analysing methods it turns out that the correlations of muon arrival time and incidence angle at various separating distances of about 50 m exhibit promising features for mass discrimination (author)

  17. Analyzing the term structure of interest rates using the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with time-varying parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopman, S.J.; Mallee, M.I.P.; van der Wel, M.

    2010-01-01

    In this article we introduce time-varying parameters in the dynamic Nelson-Siegel yield curve model for the simultaneous analysis and forecasting of interest rates of different maturities. The Nelson-Siegel model has been recently reformulated as a dynamic factor model with vector autoregressive

  18. Time varying voltage combustion control and diagnostics sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chorpening, Benjamin T [Morgantown, WV; Thornton, Jimmy D [Morgantown, WV; Huckaby, E David [Morgantown, WV; Fincham, William [Fairmont, WV

    2011-04-19

    A time-varying voltage is applied to an electrode, or a pair of electrodes, of a sensor installed in a fuel nozzle disposed adjacent the combustion zone of a continuous combustion system, such as of the gas turbine engine type. The time-varying voltage induces a time-varying current in the flame which is measured and used to determine flame capacitance using AC electrical circuit analysis. Flame capacitance is used to accurately determine the position of the flame from the sensor and the fuel/air ratio. The fuel and/or air flow rate (s) is/are then adjusted to provide reduced flame instability problems such as flashback, combustion dynamics and lean blowout, as well as reduced emissions. The time-varying voltage may be an alternating voltage and the time-varying current may be an alternating current.

  19. Robust and Optimal Control of Magnetic Microparticles inside Fluidic Channels with Time-Varying Flow Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Islam S.M. Khalil

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Targeted therapy using magnetic microparticles and nanoparticles has the potential to mitigate the negative side-effects associated with conventional medical treatment. Major technological challenges still need to be addressed in order to translate these particles into in vivo applications. For example, magnetic particles need to be navigated controllably in vessels against flowing streams of body fluid. This paper describes the motion control of paramagnetic microparticles in the flowing streams of fluidic channels with time-varying flow rates (maximum flow is 35 ml.hr−1. This control is designed using a magnetic-based proportional-derivative (PD control system to compensate for the time-varying flow inside the channels (with width and depth of 2 mm and 1.5 mm, respectively. First, we achieve point-to-point motion control against and along flow rates of 4 ml.hr−1, 6 ml.hr−1, 17 ml.hr−1, and 35 ml.hr−1. The average speeds of single microparticle (with average diameter of 100 μm against flow rates of 6 ml.hr−1 and 30 ml.hr−1 are calculated to be 45 μm.s−1 and 15 μm.s−1, respectively. Second, we implement PD control with disturbance estimation and compensation. This control decreases the steady-state error by 50%, 70%, 73%, and 78% at flow rates of 4 ml.hr−1, 6 ml.hr−1, 17 ml.hr−1, and 35 ml.hr−1, respectively. Finally, we consider the problem of finding the optimal path (minimal kinetic energy between two points using calculus of variation, against the mentioned flow rates. Not only do we find that an optimal path between two collinear points with the direction of maximum flow (middle of the fluidic channel decreases the rise time of the microparticles, but we also decrease the input current that is supplied to the electromagnetic coils by minimizing the kinetic energy of the microparticles, compared to a PD control with disturbance compensation.

  20. AIMBAT: A Python/Matplotlib Tool for Measuring Teleseismic Arrival Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, X.; van der Lee, S.; Lloyd, S.

    2013-12-01

    Python is an open-source, platform-independent, and object-oriented scripting language. It became more popular in the seismologist community since the appearance of ObsPy (Beyreuther et al. 2010, Megies et al. 2011), which provides a powerful framework for seismic data access and processing. This study introduces a new Python-based tool named AIMBAT (Automated and Interactive Measurement of Body-wave Arrival Times) for measuring teleseismic body-wave arrival times on large-scale seismic event data (Lou et al. 2013). Compared to ObsPy, AIMBAT is a lighter tool that is more focused on a particular aspect of seismic data processing. It originates from the widely used MCCC (Multi-Channel Cross-Correlation) method developed by VanDecar and Crosson (1990). On top of the original MCCC procedure, AIMBAT is automated in initial phase picking and is interactive in quality control. The core cross-correlation function is implemented in Fortran to boost up performance in addition to Python. The GUI (graphical user interface) of AIMBAT depends on Matplotlib's GUI-neutral widgets and event-handling API. A number of sorting and (de)selecting options are designed to facilitate the quality control of seismograms. By using AIMBAT, both relative and absolute teleseismic body-wave arrival times are measured. AIMBAT significantly improves efficiency and quality of the measurements. User interaction is needed only to pick the target phase arrival and to set a time window on the array stack. The package is easy to install and use, open-source, and is publicly available. Graphical user interface of AIMBAT.

  1. Monitoring molecular interactions using photon arrival-time interval distribution analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurence, Ted A [Livermore, CA; Weiss, Shimon [Los Angels, CA

    2009-10-06

    A method for analyzing/monitoring the properties of species that are labeled with fluorophores. A detector is used to detect photons emitted from species that are labeled with one or more fluorophores and located in a confocal detection volume. The arrival time of each of the photons is determined. The interval of time between various photon pairs is then determined to provide photon pair intervals. The number of photons that have arrival times within the photon pair intervals is also determined. The photon pair intervals are then used in combination with the corresponding counts of intervening photons to analyze properties and interactions of the molecules including brightness, concentration, coincidence and transit time. The method can be used for analyzing single photon streams and multiple photon streams.

  2. Arrival-Time Detection and Ultrasonic Flow-Meter Applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willatzen, Morten; Soendergaard, Peter; Latino, Carl; Voss, Frands; Andersen, Niels Lervad; Brokate, Martin; Bounaim, Aicha

    2006-01-01

    The Danfoss problem on ultrasonic flow measurement has been separated into three parts each handled by a subgroup of the authors listed above. The first subgroup deals with a presentation of modelling equations describing the physics of ultrasonic flow meters employing reciprocal ultrasonic transducer systems. The mathematical model presented allows the electrical output signal to be determined corresponding to any time-dependent electrical input signal. The transducers modelled consist of a piezoceramic material layer and a passive acoustic matching layer. The second subgroup analyzes the possibility of coding the input signal so as to simplify arrival-time detection by re.nding the coded input sequence in the received signal. The narrow-band nature of the transducers makes this problem non-trivial but suggestions for improvement are proposed. The analysis given is based on traditional autoand cross-correlation techniques. The third subgroup attempts to improve existing correlation methods in determining arrival-time detection of signals. A mathematical formulation of the problem is given and the application to a set of real signals provided by Danfoss A/S is performed with good results

  3. Approximation for the Finite-Time Ruin Probability of a General Risk Model with Constant Interest Rate and Extended Negatively Dependent Heavy-Tailed Claims

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Yang

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a general continuous-time risk model with a constant interest rate. In this model, claims arrive according to an arbitrary counting process, while their sizes have dominantly varying tails and fulfill an extended negative dependence structure. We obtain an asymptotic formula for the finite-time ruin probability, which extends a corresponding result of Wang (2008.

  4. Precise and accurate train run data: Approximation of actual arrival and departure times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richter, Troels; Landex, Alex; Andersen, Jonas Lohmann Elkjær

    with the approximated actual arrival and departure times. As a result, all future statistics can now either be based on track circuit data with high precision or approximated actual arrival times with a high accuracy. Consequently, performance analysis will be more accurate, punctuality statistics more correct, KPI...

  5. Positioning performance analysis of the time sum of arrival algorithm with error features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Feng-xun; Ma, Yan-qiu

    2018-03-01

    The theoretical positioning accuracy of multilateration (MLAT) with the time difference of arrival (TDOA) algorithm is very high. However, there are some problems in practical applications. Here we analyze the location performance of the time sum of arrival (TSOA) algorithm from the root mean square error ( RMSE) and geometric dilution of precision (GDOP) in additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) environment. The TSOA localization model is constructed. Using it, the distribution of location ambiguity region is presented with 4-base stations. And then, the location performance analysis is started from the 4-base stations with calculating the RMSE and GDOP variation. Subsequently, when the location parameters are changed in number of base stations, base station layout and so on, the performance changing patterns of the TSOA location algorithm are shown. So, the TSOA location characteristics and performance are revealed. From the RMSE and GDOP state changing trend, the anti-noise performance and robustness of the TSOA localization algorithm are proved. The TSOA anti-noise performance will be used for reducing the blind-zone and the false location rate of MLAT systems.

  6. Managing truck arrivals with time windows to alleviate gate congestion at container terminals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, G.; Govindan, Kannan; Yang, Z.

    2013-01-01

    Long truck queues at gates often limit the efficiency of a container terminal and generate serious air pollution. To reduce the gate congestion, this paper proposes a method called'vessel dependent time windows (VDTWs)' to control truck arrivals, which involves partitioning truck entries into gro......Long truck queues at gates often limit the efficiency of a container terminal and generate serious air pollution. To reduce the gate congestion, this paper proposes a method called'vessel dependent time windows (VDTWs)' to control truck arrivals, which involves partitioning truck entries...... into groups and assigning different time windows to the groups. The proposed VDTWs method includes three steps: (1) predicting truck arrivals based on the time window assignment, (2) estimating the queue length of trucks, and (3) optimizing the arrangement of time windows to minimize the total cost...

  7. Controlled time of arrival windows for already initiated energy-neutral continuous descent operations

    OpenAIRE

    Dalmau Codina, Ramon; Prats Menéndez, Xavier

    2017-01-01

    Continuous descent operations with controlled times of arrival at one or several metering fixes could enable environmentally friendly procedures without compromising terminal airspace capacity. This paper focuses on controlled time of arrival updates once the descent has been already initiated, assessing the feasible time window (and associated fuel consumption) of continuous descent operations requiring neither thrust nor speed-brake usage along the whole descent (i.e. only elevator control ...

  8. ARRIVAL TIME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GRAVITATIONAL WAVES AND ELECTROMAGNETIC SIGNALS DUE TO GRAVITATIONAL LENSING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takahashi, Ryuichi [Faculty of Science and Technology, Hirosaki University, 3 Bunkyo-cho, Hirosaki, Aomori 036-8561 (Japan)

    2017-01-20

    In this study we demonstrate that general relativity predicts arrival time differences between gravitational wave (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) signals caused by the wave effects in gravitational lensing. The GW signals can arrive earlier than the EM signals in some cases if the GW/EM signals have passed through a lens, even if both signals were emitted simultaneously by a source. GW wavelengths are much larger than EM wavelengths; therefore, the propagation of the GWs does not follow the laws of geometrical optics, including the Shapiro time delay, if the lens mass is less than approximately 10{sup 5} M {sub ⊙}( f /Hz){sup −1}, where f is the GW frequency. The arrival time difference can reach ∼0.1 s ( f /Hz){sup −1} if the signals have passed by a lens of mass ∼8000 M {sub ⊙}( f /Hz){sup −1} with the impact parameter smaller than the Einstein radius; therefore, it is more prominent for lower GW frequencies. For example, when a distant supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) in a galactic center is lensed by an intervening galaxy, the time lag becomes of the order of 10 days. Future pulsar timing arrays including the Square Kilometre Array and X-ray detectors may detect several time lags by measuring the orbital phase differences between the GW/EM signals in the SMBHBs. Gravitational lensing imprints a characteristic modulation on a chirp waveform; therefore, we can deduce whether a measured arrival time lag arises from intrinsic source properties or gravitational lensing. Determination of arrival time differences would be extremely useful in multimessenger observations and tests of general relativity.

  9. Original Research Factors associated with hospital arrival time after ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Original Research. Factors associated with hospital arrival time after the onset of stroke symptoms: A cross-sectional study at two teaching hospitals in Harare, Zimbabwe .... hypertension causing small vessel disease which outweigh the causes of ..... Stroke Mechanism in Atherosclerotic Middle Cerebral Artery Disease:.

  10. Time-varying BRDFs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Bo; Sunkavalli, Kalyan; Ramamoorthi, Ravi; Belhumeur, Peter N; Nayar, Shree K

    2007-01-01

    The properties of virtually all real-world materials change with time, causing their bidirectional reflectance distribution functions (BRDFs) to be time varying. However, none of the existing BRDF models and databases take time variation into consideration; they represent the appearance of a material at a single time instance. In this paper, we address the acquisition, analysis, modeling, and rendering of a wide range of time-varying BRDFs (TVBRDFs). We have developed an acquisition system that is capable of sampling a material's BRDF at multiple time instances, with each time sample acquired within 36 sec. We have used this acquisition system to measure the BRDFs of a wide range of time-varying phenomena, which include the drying of various types of paints (watercolor, spray, and oil), the drying of wet rough surfaces (cement, plaster, and fabrics), the accumulation of dusts (household and joint compound) on surfaces, and the melting of materials (chocolate). Analytic BRDF functions are fit to these measurements and the model parameters' variations with time are analyzed. Each category exhibits interesting and sometimes nonintuitive parameter trends. These parameter trends are then used to develop analytic TVBRDF models. The analytic TVBRDF models enable us to apply effects such as paint drying and dust accumulation to arbitrary surfaces and novel materials.

  11. Sojourn time distributions in a Markovian G-queue with batch arrival and batch removal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Woo Shin

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a single server Markovian queue with two types of customers; positive and negative, where positive customers arrive in batches and arrivals of negative customers remove positive customers in batches. Only positive customers form a queue and negative customers just reduce the system congestion by removing positive ones upon their arrivals. We derive the LSTs of sojourn time distributions for a single server Markovian queue with positive customers and negative customers by using the first passage time arguments for Markov chains.

  12. Distribution of arrival times of muons with energy greater than 10 GeV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badino, G.; Bianco, P.; Dardo, M.; Fulgione, W.; Galeotti, P.; Periale, L.; Saavedra, O.

    1982-01-01

    Recent data on the arrival time distribution of EAS of primary energy >=10 14 eV, and of high energy muons detected at great depth (5000 mwe), seem to indicate an excess of short time intervals. We are using an apparatus, installed at 40 mwe underground, and a surface shower array to investigate the distributions of a) the time intervals between muon groups and b) the arrival times of muons with respect to the front of air showers. Preliminary results of this search are presented

  13. PIXiE: an algorithm for automated ion mobility arrival time extraction and collision cross section calculation using global data association

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Jian; Casey, Cameron P.; Zheng, Xueyun; Ibrahim, Yehia M.; Wilkins, Christopher S.; Renslow, Ryan S.; Thomas, Dennis G.; Payne, Samuel H.; Monroe, Matthew E.; Smith, Richard D.; Teeguarden, Justin G.; Baker, Erin S.; Metz, Thomas O.

    2017-05-15

    Motivation: Drift tube ion mobility spectrometry (DTIMS) is increasingly implemented in high throughput omics workflows, and new informatics approaches are necessary for processing the associated data. To automatically extract arrival times for molecules measured by DTIMS coupled with mass spectrometry and compute their associated collisional cross sections (CCS) we created the PNNL Ion Mobility Cross Section Extractor (PIXiE). The primary application presented for this algorithm is the extraction of information necessary to create a reference library containing accu-rate masses, DTIMS arrival times and CCSs for use in high throughput omics analyses. Results: We demonstrate the utility of this approach by automatically extracting arrival times and calculating the associated CCSs for a set of endogenous metabolites and xenobiotics. The PIXiE-generated CCS values were identical to those calculated by hand and within error of those calcu-lated using commercially available instrument vendor software.

  14. The Measurement and Interpretation of Surface Wave Group Arrival Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masters, G.; Kane, D.; Morrow, J.; Zhou, Y.; Tromp, J.

    2005-12-01

    We have recently developed an efficient technique for measuring the relative group arrival times of surface waves by using cross-correlation and cluster analysis of waveform envelope functions. Applying the analysis to minor arc Love and Rayleigh waves in the frequency band 7 to 35 mHz for all events over magnitude 5.5 results in a dataset of over 200,000 measurements at each frequency for long period Rayleigh waves (frequency less than 25 mHz) and about 100,000 measurements at the shorter periods. Analysis of transverse components results in about half as many Love wave measurements. Simple ray theory inversions of the relative arrival times for apparent group velocity produce maps which are accurate representations of the data (often over 90% variance reduction of the relative arrival times) and which show features strongly correlated with tectonics and crustal thickness. The apparent group velocity variations can be extremely large: 30% velocity variations for 20 mHz Rayleigh waves and 40% variations for 30 mHz Rayleigh waves and can have abrupt lateral changes. This raises the concern that non-ray theory effects could be important. Indeed, a recent analysis by Dahlen and Zhou (personal communication) suggests that the group arrival times should be a functions of both the group velocity AND the phase velocity. The simplest way to test the interpretation of the measurements is to perform the analysis on synthetic seismograms computed for a realistic model of the Earth. Here, we use the SEM with a model which incorporates realistic crust and mantle structure. We are currently computing synthetics for a suite of roughly 1000 events recorded globally that extend to a period of 18 seconds. We shall present the results of applying both ray-based and finite frequency inversions to the synthetic data as well as evaluating the effects of off path propagation at short periods using surface wave ray tracing.

  15. Obtaining location/arrival-time and location/outflow-quantity distributions for steady flow systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1977-01-01

    A steady, two-dimensional flow system is used to demonstrate the application of location/arrival-time and location/outflow-quantity curves in determining the environmental consequences of groundwater contamination. The subsurface geologic and hydrologic evaluations needed to obtain the arrival results involve a sequence of four phases: system identification, new potential determination, flow systems kinematics, and contaminant transport analysis. Once these phases are completed, they are effectively summarized and easily used to evaluate environmental consequences through the arrival distributions

  16. Pulse pile-up in nuclear particle detection systems with rapidly varying counting rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Datlowe, D.W.

    1977-01-01

    Pulse pile-up in nuclear particle detection systems is the distortion of the measured pulse height distribution which occurs when there is a significant probability that more than one particle will arrive within the detector resolving time. This paper treats the problem in cases where the probability of pile-up varies on a time scale comparable to the rise time of the detector system electronics. These variations introduce structure into the pulse height distributions which cannot occur for a time-independent pile-up probability. Three classes of problems which exemplify these effects are as follows: 1) Pile-up rejection circuits. 2) Cascaded nuclear decays, in which the lifetime for emission of a second X-ray is comparable to the detector rise time. 3) Bursts of particles where the intensity is modulated on a time scale comparable to the detector rise time. These problems are solved computationally by an extension of a numerical technique previously developed. (Auth.)

  17. A review of the decoherent histories approach to the arrival time problem in quantum theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yearsley, James M

    2011-01-01

    We review recent progress in understanding the arrival time problem in quantum mechanics, from the point of view of the decoherent histories approach to quantum theory. We begin by discussing the arrival time problem, focussing in particular on the role of the probability current in the expected classical solution. After a brief introduction to decoherent histories we review the use of complex potentials in the construction of appropriate class operators. We then discuss the arrival time problem for a particle coupled to an environment, and review how the arrival time probability can be expressed in terms of a POVM in this case. We turn finally to the question of decoherence of the corresponding histories, and we show that this can be achieved for simple states in the case of a free particle, and for general states for a particle coupled to an environment.

  18. Sequencing games with Just-in-Time arrival, and related games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lohmann, E.R.M.A.; Borm, P.E.M.; Slikker, M.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper sequencing situations with Just-in-Time (JiT) arrival are introduced. This new type of one-machine sequencing situations assumes that a job is available to be handled by the machine as soon as its predecessor is finished. A basic predecessor dependent set-up time is incorporated in the

  19. Equilibrium arrival times to queues with general service times and non-linear utility functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breinbjerg, Jesper

    2017-01-01

    by a general utility function which is decreasing in the waiting time and service completion time of each customer. Applications of such queueing games range from people choosing when to arrive at a grand opening sale to travellers choosing when to line up at the gate when boarding an airplane. We develop...

  20. The Effect of Integration Policies on the Time until Regular Employment of Newly Arrived Immigrants:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Jens; Heinesen, Eskil; Hummelgaard, Hans

    We analyse the effect of active labour-market programmes on the hazard rate into regular employment for newly arrived immigrants using the timing-of-events duration model. We take account of language course participation and progression in destination country language skills. We use rich...... administrative data from Denmark. We find substantial lock-in effects of participation in active labour-market programmes. Post programme effects on the hazard rate to regular employment are significantly positive for wage subsidy programmes, but not for other types of programmes. For language course...... participants, improvement in language proficiency has significant and substantial positive effects on the hazard rate to employment....

  1. On-line scheduling of two-machine open shops where jobs arrive over time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, B.; Vestjens, A.P.A.; Woeginger, G.J.

    1998-01-01

    We investigate the problem of on-line scheduling two-machine open shops with the objective of minimizing the makespan.Jobs arrive independently over time, and the existence of a job is not known until its arrival. In the clairvoyant on-line model, the processing requirement of every job becomes

  2. An Erlang Loss Queue with Time-Phased Batch Arrivals as a Model for Traffic Control in Communication Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moon Ho Lee

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available A multiserver queueing model that does not have a buffer but has batch arrival of customers is considered. In contrast to the standard batch arrival, in which the entire batch arrives at the system during a single epoch, we assume that the customers of a batch (flow arrive individually in exponentially distributed times. The service time is exponentially distributed. Flows arrive according to a stationary Poisson arrival process. The flow size distribution is geometric. The number of flows that can be simultaneously admitted to the system is under control. The loss of any customer from an admitted flow, with a fixed probability, implies termination of the flow arrival. Analysis of the sojourn time and loss probability of an arbitrary flow is performed.

  3. Modeling information diffusion in time-varying community networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Xuelian; Zhao, Narisa

    2017-12-01

    Social networks are rarely static, and they typically have time-varying network topologies. A great number of studies have modeled temporal networks and explored social contagion processes within these models; however, few of these studies have considered community structure variations. In this paper, we present a study of how the time-varying property of a modular structure influences the information dissemination. First, we propose a continuous-time Markov model of information diffusion where two parameters, mobility rate and community attractiveness, are introduced to address the time-varying nature of the community structure. The basic reproduction number is derived, and the accuracy of this model is evaluated by comparing the simulation and theoretical results. Furthermore, numerical results illustrate that generally both the mobility rate and community attractiveness significantly promote the information diffusion process, especially in the initial outbreak stage. Moreover, the strength of this promotion effect is much stronger when the modularity is higher. Counterintuitively, it is found that when all communities have the same attractiveness, social mobility no longer accelerates the diffusion process. In addition, we show that the local spreading in the advantage group has been greatly enhanced due to the agglomeration effect caused by the social mobility and community attractiveness difference, which thus increases the global spreading.

  4. Time varying determinants of bond flows to emerging markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasemin Erduman

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the time varying nature of the determinants of bond flows with a focus on the global financial crisis period. We estimate a time varying regression model using Bayesian estimation methods, where the posterior distribution is approximated by Gibbs sampling algorithm. Our findings suggest that the interest rate differential is the most significant pull factor of portfolio bond flows, along with the inflation rate, while the growth rate does not play a significant role. Among the push factors, global liquidity is the most important driver of bond flows. It matters the most, when unconventional monetary easing policies were first announced; and its importance as a determinant of portfolio bond flows decreases over time, starting with the Eurozone crisis, and diminishes with the tapering talk. Global risk appetite and the risk perception towards the emerging countries also have relatively small and stable significant effects on bond flows.

  5. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-06-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  6. Predictive analytics for truck arrival time estimation : a field study at a European distribution center

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Spoel, Sjoerd; Amrit, Chintan Amrit; van Hillegersberg, Jos

    2017-01-01

    Distribution centres (DCs) are the hubs connecting transport streams in the supply chain. The synchronisation of coming and going cargo at a DC requires reliable arrival times. To achieve this, a reliable method to predict arrival times is needed. A literature review was performed to find the

  7. Optimal harvesting of fish stocks under a time-varying discount rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Stephen; Hepburn, Cameron; Papachristodoulou, Antonis

    2011-01-21

    Optimal control theory has been extensively used to determine the optimal harvesting policy for renewable resources such as fish stocks. In such optimisations, it is common to maximise the discounted utility of harvesting over time, employing a constant time discount rate. However, evidence from human and animal behaviour suggests that we have evolved to employ discount rates which fall over time, often referred to as "hyperbolic discounting". This increases the weight on benefits in the distant future, which may appear to provide greater protection of resources for future generations, but also creates challenges of time-inconsistent plans. This paper examines harvesting plans when the discount rate declines over time. With a declining discount rate, the planner reduces stock levels in the early stages (when the discount rate is high) and intends to compensate by allowing the stock level to recover later (when the discount rate will be lower). Such a plan may be feasible and optimal, provided that the planner remains committed throughout. However, in practice there is a danger that such plans will be re-optimized and adjusted in the future. It is shown that repeatedly restarting the optimization can drive the stock level down to the point where the optimal policy is to harvest the stock to extinction. In short, a key contribution of this paper is to identify the surprising severity of the consequences flowing from incorporating a rather trivial, and widely prevalent, "non-rational" aspect of human behaviour into renewable resource management models. These ideas are related to the collapse of the Peruvian anchovy fishery in the 1970's. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Maximum Likelihood Time-of-Arrival Estimation of Optical Pulses via Photon-Counting Photodetectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erkmen, Baris I.; Moision, Bruce E.

    2010-01-01

    Many optical imaging, ranging, and communications systems rely on the estimation of the arrival time of an optical pulse. Recently, such systems have been increasingly employing photon-counting photodetector technology, which changes the statistics of the observed photocurrent. This requires time-of-arrival estimators to be developed and their performances characterized. The statistics of the output of an ideal photodetector, which are well modeled as a Poisson point process, were considered. An analytical model was developed for the mean-square error of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, demonstrating two phenomena that cause deviations from the minimum achievable error at low signal power. An approximation was derived to the threshold at which the ML estimator essentially fails to provide better than a random guess of the pulse arrival time. Comparing the analytic model performance predictions to those obtained via simulations, it was verified that the model accurately predicts the ML performance over all regimes considered. There is little prior art that attempts to understand the fundamental limitations to time-of-arrival estimation from Poisson statistics. This work establishes both a simple mathematical description of the error behavior, and the associated physical processes that yield this behavior. Previous work on mean-square error characterization for ML estimators has predominantly focused on additive Gaussian noise. This work demonstrates that the discrete nature of the Poisson noise process leads to a distinctly different error behavior.

  9. Arrival-time picking method based on approximate negentropy for microseismic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yue; Ni, Zhuo; Tian, Yanan

    2018-05-01

    Accurate and dependable picking of the first arrival time for microseismic data is an important part in microseismic monitoring, which directly affects analysis results of post-processing. This paper presents a new method based on approximate negentropy (AN) theory for microseismic arrival time picking in condition of much lower signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). According to the differences in information characteristics between microseismic data and random noise, an appropriate approximation of negentropy function is selected to minimize the effect of SNR. At the same time, a weighted function of the differences between maximum and minimum value of AN spectrum curve is designed to obtain a proper threshold function. In this way, the region of signal and noise is distinguished to pick the first arrival time accurately. To demonstrate the effectiveness of AN method, we make many experiments on a series of synthetic data with different SNR from -1 dB to -12 dB and compare it with previously published Akaike information criterion (AIC) and short/long time average ratio (STA/LTA) methods. Experimental results indicate that these three methods can achieve well picking effect when SNR is from -1 dB to -8 dB. However, when SNR is as low as -8 dB to -12 dB, the proposed AN method yields more accurate and stable picking result than AIC and STA/LTA methods. Furthermore, the application results of real three-component microseismic data also show that the new method is superior to the other two methods in accuracy and stability.

  10. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China); Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

    2014-06-15

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  11. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-01-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q c . The epidemic will survive when q > q c and die when q  c . These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure

  12. Holographic cinematography of time-varying reflecting and time-varying phase objects using a Nd:YAG laser

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decker, A. J.

    1982-01-01

    The use of a Nd:YAG laser to record holographic motion pictures of time-varying reflecting objects and time-varying phase objects is discussed. Sample frames from both types of holographic motion pictures are presented. The holographic system discussed is intended for three-dimensional flow visualization of the time-varying flows that occur in jet-engine components.

  13. Daily Tourist Arrivals, Exchange Rates and Voatility for Korea and Taiwan

    OpenAIRE

    Chia-Lin Chang; Michael Mcaleer

    2009-01-01

    Both domestic and international tourism are a major source of service export receipts for many countries worldwide, and is also increasingly important in Taiwan. One of the three leading tourism source countries for Taiwan is the Republic of Korea, which is a source of short haul tourism. Daily data from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2008 are used to model the Korean Won / New Taiwan $ exchange rate and tourist arrivals from Korea to Taiwan, as well as their associated volatility. The sample ...

  14. Daily Tourist Arrivals, Exchange Rates and Volatility for Korea and Taiwan

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, C-L.; McAleer, M.J.

    2009-01-01

    textabstractBoth domestic and international tourism are a major source of service export receipts for many countries worldwide, and is also increasingly important in Taiwan. One of the three leading tourism source countries for Taiwan is the Republic of Korea, which is a source of short haul tourism. Daily data from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2008 are used to model the Korean Won / New Taiwan $ exchange rate and tourist arrivals from Korea to Taiwan, as well as their associated volatility....

  15. time of arrival 3-d position estimation using minimum ads-b receiver ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    The location from which a signal is transmitted can be estimated using the time it takes to be detected at a receiver. The difference between transmission time and the detection time is known as time of arrival (TOA). In this work, an algorithm for 3-dimensional (3-D) position estimation (PE) of an emitter using the minimum ...

  16. Time-Varying Value of Energy Efficiency in Michigan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mims, Natalie; Eckman, Tom; Schwartz, Lisa C.

    2018-04-02

    Quantifying the time-varying value of energy efficiency is necessary to properly account for all of its benefits and costs and to identify and implement efficiency resources that contribute to a low-cost, reliable electric system. Historically, most quantification of the benefits of efficiency has focused largely on the economic value of annual energy reduction. Due to the lack of statistically representative metered end-use load shape data in Michigan (i.e., the hourly or seasonal timing of electricity savings), the ability to confidently characterize the time-varying value of energy efficiency savings in the state, especially for weather-sensitive measures such as central air conditioning, is limited. Still, electric utilities in Michigan can take advantage of opportunities to incorporate the time-varying value of efficiency into their planning. For example, end-use load research and hourly valuation of efficiency savings can be used for a variety of electricity planning functions, including load forecasting, demand-side management and evaluation, capacity planning, long-term resource planning, renewable energy integration, assessing potential grid modernization investments, establishing rates and pricing, and customer service (KEMA 2012). In addition, accurately calculating the time-varying value of efficiency may help energy efficiency program administrators prioritize existing offerings, set incentive or rebate levels that reflect the full value of efficiency, and design new programs.

  17. 41 CFR 301-11.10 - Am I required to record departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim? 301-11.10 Section 301-11.10 Public Contracts and... dates and times on my travel claim? You must record the date of departure from, and arrival at, the... visited. You do not have to record departure/arrival times, but you must annotate your travel claim when...

  18. Strengthening economy through tourism sector by tourist arrival prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Supriatna, A.; Subartini, B.; Hertini, E.; Sukono; Rumaisha; Istiqamah, N.

    2018-03-01

    Tourism sector has a tendency to be proposed as a support for national economy to many countries with various of natural resources, such as Indonesia. The number of tourist is very related with the success rate of a tourist attraction, since it is also related with planning and strategy. Hence, it is important to predict the climate of tourism in Indonesia, especially the number of domestic or international tourist in the future. This study uses Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) time series method to predict the number of tourist arrival to tourism strategic areas in Nusa Tenggara Barat. The prediction was done using the international and domestic tourist arrival to Nusa Tenggara Barat data from January 2008 to June 2016. The established SARIMA method was (0,1,1)(0,0,2)12 with MAPE error of 15.76. The prediction for the next six time periods showed that the highest number of tourist arrival is during September 2016 with 330,516 tourist arrivals. Prediction of tourist arrival hopefully might be used as reference for local and national government to make policies to strengthen national economy for a long period of time

  19. On-line statistical processing of radiation detector pulse trains with time-varying count rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostolopoulos, G.

    2008-01-01

    Statistical analysis is of primary importance for the correct interpretation of nuclear measurements, due to the inherent random nature of radioactive decay processes. This paper discusses the application of statistical signal processing techniques to the random pulse trains generated by radiation detectors. The aims of the presented algorithms are: (i) continuous, on-line estimation of the underlying time-varying count rate θ(t) and its first-order derivative dθ/dt; (ii) detection of abrupt changes in both of these quantities and estimation of their new value after the change point. Maximum-likelihood techniques, based on the Poisson probability distribution, are employed for the on-line estimation of θ and dθ/dt. Detection of abrupt changes is achieved on the basis of the generalized likelihood ratio statistical test. The properties of the proposed algorithms are evaluated by extensive simulations and possible applications for on-line radiation monitoring are discussed

  20. Does winter region affect spring arrival time and body mass of king eiders in northern Alaska?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Abby N.; Oppel, Steffen

    2009-01-01

    Events during the non-breeding season may affect the body condition of migratory birds and influence performance during the following breeding season. Migratory birds nesting in the Arctic often rely on endogenous nutrients for reproductive efforts, and are thus potentially subject to such carry-over effects. We tested whether king eider (Somateria spectabilis) arrival time and body mass upon arrival at breeding grounds in northern Alaska were affected by their choice of a winter region in the Bering Sea. We captured birds shortly after arrival on breeding grounds in early June 2002–2006 at two sites in northern Alaska and determined the region in which individuals wintered using satellite telemetry or stable isotope ratios of head feathers. We used generalized linear models to assess whether winter region explained variation in arrival body mass among individuals by accounting for sex, site, annual variation, and the date a bird was captured. We found no support for our hypothesis that either arrival time or arrival body mass of king eiders differed among winter regions. We conclude that wintering in different regions in the Bering Sea is unlikely to have reproductive consequences for king eiders in our study areas.

  1. Housing Cycles in Switzerland - A Time-Varying Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Drechsel, Dirk

    2015-01-01

    In light of the strong increase of house prices in Switzerland, we analyze the effects of mortgage rate shocks, changes in the interplay between housing demand and supply and GDP growth on house prices for the time period 1981- 2014. We employ Bayesian time-varying coefficients vector autoregressions to allow different monetary and immigration regimes over time. A number of structural changes, such as regulatory changes in the aftermath of the 1990s real estate crisis, the introduction of fre...

  2. An Arrival and Departure Time Predictor for Scheduling Communication in Opportunistic IoT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozza, Riccardo; Georgoulas, Stylianos; Moessner, Klaus; Nati, Michele; Gluhak, Alexander; Krco, Srdjan

    2016-01-01

    In this article, an Arrival and Departure Time Predictor (ADTP) for scheduling communication in opportunistic Internet of Things (IoT) is presented. The proposed algorithm learns about temporal patterns of encounters between IoT devices and predicts future arrival and departure times, therefore future contact durations. By relying on such predictions, a neighbour discovery scheduler is proposed, capable of jointly optimizing discovery latency and power consumption in order to maximize communication time when contacts are expected with high probability and, at the same time, saving power when contacts are expected with low probability. A comprehensive performance evaluation with different sets of synthetic and real world traces shows that ADTP performs favourably with respect to previous state of the art. This prediction framework opens opportunities for transmission planners and schedulers optimizing not only neighbour discovery, but the entire communication process. PMID:27827909

  3. An Arrival and Departure Time Predictor for Scheduling Communication in Opportunistic IoT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozza, Riccardo; Georgoulas, Stylianos; Moessner, Klaus; Nati, Michele; Gluhak, Alexander; Krco, Srdjan

    2016-11-04

    In this article, an Arrival and Departure Time Predictor (ADTP) for scheduling communication in opportunistic Internet of Things (IoT) is presented. The proposed algorithm learns about temporal patterns of encounters between IoT devices and predicts future arrival and departure times, therefore future contact durations. By relying on such predictions, a neighbour discovery scheduler is proposed, capable of jointly optimizing discovery latency and power consumption in order to maximize communication time when contacts are expected with high probability and, at the same time, saving power when contacts are expected with low probability. A comprehensive performance evaluation with different sets of synthetic and real world traces shows that ADTP performs favourably with respect to previous state of the art. This prediction framework opens opportunities for transmission planners and schedulers optimizing not only neighbour discovery, but the entire communication process.

  4. Online Support Vector Regression with Varying Parameters for Time-Dependent Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A.; Jeong, Myong K.; Badiru, Adedeji B.

    2011-01-01

    Support vector regression (SVR) is a machine learning technique that continues to receive interest in several domains including manufacturing, engineering, and medicine. In order to extend its application to problems in which datasets arrive constantly and in which batch processing of the datasets is infeasible or expensive, an accurate online support vector regression (AOSVR) technique was proposed. The AOSVR technique efficiently updates a trained SVR function whenever a sample is added to or removed from the training set without retraining the entire training data. However, the AOSVR technique assumes that the new samples and the training samples are of the same characteristics; hence, the same value of SVR parameters is used for training and prediction. This assumption is not applicable to data samples that are inherently noisy and non-stationary such as sensor data. As a result, we propose Accurate On-line Support Vector Regression with Varying Parameters (AOSVR-VP) that uses varying SVR parameters rather than fixed SVR parameters, and hence accounts for the variability that may exist in the samples. To accomplish this objective, we also propose a generalized weight function to automatically update the weights of SVR parameters in on-line monitoring applications. The proposed function allows for lower and upper bounds for SVR parameters. We tested our proposed approach and compared results with the conventional AOSVR approach using two benchmark time series data and sensor data from nuclear power plant. The results show that using varying SVR parameters is more applicable to time dependent data.

  5. Estimating time-varying conditional correlations between stock and foreign exchange markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tastan, Hüseyin

    2006-02-01

    This study explores the dynamic interaction between stock market returns and changes in nominal exchange rates. Many financial variables are known to exhibit fat tails and autoregressive variance structure. It is well-known that unconditional covariance and correlation coefficients also vary significantly over time and multivariate generalized autoregressive model (MGARCH) is able to capture the time-varying variance-covariance matrix for stock market returns and changes in exchange rates. The model is applied to daily Euro-Dollar exchange rates and two stock market indexes from the US economy: Dow-Jones Industrial Average Index and S&P500 Index. The news impact surfaces are also drawn based on the model estimates to see the effects of idiosyncratic shocks in respective markets.

  6. The optimal manufacturing batch size with rework under time-varying demand process for a finite time horizon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musa, Sarah; Supadi, Siti Suzlin; Omar, Mohd

    2014-07-01

    Rework is one of the solutions to some of the main issues in reverse logistic and green supply chain as it reduces production cost and environmental problem. Many researchers focus on developing rework model, but to the knowledge of the author, none of them has developed a model for time-varying demand rate. In this paper, we extend previous works and develop multiple batch production system for time-varying demand rate with rework. In this model, the rework is done within the same production cycle.

  7. Screening for Infectious Diseases among Newly Arrived Migrants in EU/EEA Countries—Varying Practices but Consensus on the Utility of Screening

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tommi Kärki

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Screening is one possible tool for monitoring infectious diseases among migrants. However, there is limited information on screening programmes targeted for newly arrived migrants in EU/EEA countries. Our aim was to investigate the implementation, practices and usefulness of these programmes. We conducted a survey among country experts from EU/EEA countries and Switzerland, asking whether their countries had implemented screening programmes. We also estimated the association between the implementation of these programmes and the rate of asylum-seekers in the population. Of the countries, 16 (59% had implemented screening programmes and 15 (56% had national guidelines. The rate of asylum-seekers was associated with implementation of screening programmes (p = 0.014. Screening was performed most often for tuberculosis; most commonly on holding level, and was targeted to specific migrant groups in over half of the countries performing screening. Twenty-five of all the country experts (96% considered screening among migrants useful, and 24 (92% would welcome EU level guidelines for screening. The implementation of screening programmes varied, and the practices were different among countries. Our survey suggests, that establishing EU level guidelines for screening would be useful, although they would have to take into account differences between individual countries.

  8. Time-varying value of electric energy efficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mims, Natalie A.; Eckman, Tom; Goldman, Charles

    2017-06-30

    Electric energy efficiency resources save energy and may reduce peak demand. Historically, quantification of energy efficiency benefits has largely focused on the economic value of energy savings during the first year and lifetime of the installed measures. Due in part to the lack of publicly available research on end-use load shapes (i.e., the hourly or seasonal timing of electricity savings) and energy savings shapes, consideration of the impact of energy efficiency on peak demand reduction (i.e., capacity savings) has been more limited. End-use load research and the hourly valuation of efficiency savings are used for a variety of electricity planning functions, including load forecasting, demand-side management and evaluation, capacity and demand response planning, long-term resource planning, renewable energy integration, assessing potential grid modernization investments, establishing rates and pricing, and customer service. This study reviews existing literature on the time-varying value of energy efficiency savings, provides examples in four geographically diverse locations of how consideration of the time-varying value of efficiency savings impacts the calculation of power system benefits, and identifies future research needs to enhance the consideration of the time-varying value of energy efficiency in cost-effectiveness screening analysis. Findings from this study include: -The time-varying value of individual energy efficiency measures varies across the locations studied because of the physical and operational characteristics of the individual utility system (e.g., summer or winter peaking, load factor, reserve margin) as well as the time periods during which savings from measures occur. -Across the four locations studied, some of the largest capacity benefits from energy efficiency are derived from the deferral of transmission and distribution system infrastructure upgrades. However, the deferred cost of such upgrades also exhibited the greatest range

  9. An Approximate Dynamic Programming Approach to Urban Freight Distribution with Batch Arrivals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Heeswijk, W.J.A.; Mes, Martijn R.K.; Schutten, Johannes M.J.; Corman, Francesco; Voβ, Stefan; Negenborn, Rudy R.

    2015-01-01

    We study an extension of the delivery dispatching problem (DDP) with time windows, applied on LTL orders arriving at an urban consolidation center. Order properties (e.g., destination, size, dispatch window) may be highly varying, and directly distributing an incoming order batch may yield high

  10. Uncertainty in Bus Arrival Time Predictions: Treating Heteroscedasticity With a Metamodel Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    O'Sullivan, Aidan; Pereira, Francisco Camara; Zhao, Jinhua

    2016-01-01

    Arrival time predictions for the next available bus or train are a key component of modern traveler information systems (TISs). A great deal of research has been conducted within the intelligent transportation system community in developing an assortment of different algorithms that seek...... sources. In this paper, we tackle the issue of uncertainty in bus arrival time predictions using an alternative approach. Rather than endeavor to develop a superior method for prediction, we take existing predictions from a TIS and treat the algorithm generating them as a black box. The presence...... of heteroscedasticity in the predictions is demonstrated and then a metamodel approach is deployed, which augments existing predictive systems using quantile regression to place bounds on the associated error. As a case study, this approach is applied to data from a real-world TIS in Boston. This method allows bounds...

  11. Time varying, multivariate volume data reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahrens, James P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Fout, Nathaniel [UC DAVIS; Ma, Kwan - Liu [UC DAVIS

    2010-01-01

    Large-scale supercomputing is revolutionizing the way science is conducted. A growing challenge, however, is understanding the massive quantities of data produced by large-scale simulations. The data, typically time-varying, multivariate, and volumetric, can occupy from hundreds of gigabytes to several terabytes of storage space. Transferring and processing volume data of such sizes is prohibitively expensive and resource intensive. Although it may not be possible to entirely alleviate these problems, data compression should be considered as part of a viable solution, especially when the primary means of data analysis is volume rendering. In this paper we present our study of multivariate compression, which exploits correlations among related variables, for volume rendering. Two configurations for multidimensional compression based on vector quantization are examined. We emphasize quality reconstruction and interactive rendering, which leads us to a solution using graphics hardware to perform on-the-fly decompression during rendering. In this paper we present a solution which addresses the need for data reduction in large supercomputing environments where data resulting from simulations occupies tremendous amounts of storage. Our solution employs a lossy encoding scheme to acrueve data reduction with several options in terms of rate-distortion behavior. We focus on encoding of multiple variables together, with optional compression in space and time. The compressed volumes can be rendered directly with commodity graphics cards at interactive frame rates and rendering quality similar to that of static volume renderers. Compression results using a multivariate time-varying data set indicate that encoding multiple variables results in acceptable performance in the case of spatial and temporal encoding as compared to independent compression of variables. The relative performance of spatial vs. temporal compression is data dependent, although temporal compression has the

  12. Prediction of the Critical Curvature for LX-17 with the Time of Arrival Data from DNS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yao, Jin [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Fried, Laurence E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Moss, William C. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-01-10

    We extract the detonation shock front velocity, curvature and acceleration from time of arrival data measured at grid points from direct numerical simulations of a 50mm rate-stick lit by a disk-source, with the ignition and growth reaction model and a JWL equation of state calibrated for LX-17. We compute the quasi-steady (D, κ) relation based on the extracted properties and predicted the critical curvatures of LX-17. We also proposed an explicit formula that contains the failure turning point, obtained from optimization for the (D, κ) relation of LX-17.

  13. Zhang neural network for online solution of time-varying convex quadratic program subject to time-varying linear-equality constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Yunong; Li Zhan

    2009-01-01

    In this Letter, by following Zhang et al.'s method, a recurrent neural network (termed as Zhang neural network, ZNN) is developed and analyzed for solving online the time-varying convex quadratic-programming problem subject to time-varying linear-equality constraints. Different from conventional gradient-based neural networks (GNN), such a ZNN model makes full use of the time-derivative information of time-varying coefficient. The resultant ZNN model is theoretically proved to have global exponential convergence to the time-varying theoretical optimal solution of the investigated time-varying convex quadratic program. Computer-simulation results further substantiate the effectiveness, efficiency and novelty of such ZNN model and method.

  14. Estimated time of arrival and debiasing the time saving bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriksson, Gabriella; Patten, Christopher J D; Svenson, Ola; Eriksson, Lars

    2015-01-01

    The time saving bias predicts that the time saved when increasing speed from a high speed is overestimated, and underestimated when increasing speed from a slow speed. In a questionnaire, time saving judgements were investigated when information of estimated time to arrival was provided. In an active driving task, an alternative meter indicating the inverted speed was used to debias judgements. The simulated task was to first drive a distance at a given speed, and then drive the same distance again at the speed the driver judged was required to gain exactly 3 min in travel time compared with the first drive. A control group performed the same task with a speedometer and saved less than the targeted 3 min when increasing speed from a high speed, and more than 3 min when increasing from a low speed. Participants in the alternative meter condition were closer to the target. The two studies corroborate a time saving bias and show that biased intuitive judgements can be debiased by displaying the inverted speed. Practitioner Summary: Previous studies have shown a cognitive bias in judgements of the time saved by increasing speed. This simulator study aims to improve driver judgements by introducing a speedometer indicating the inverted speed in active driving. The results show that the bias can be reduced by presenting the inverted speed and this finding can be used when designing in-car information systems.

  15. Time-varying Crash Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Feunoua, Bruno; Jeon, Yoontae

    We estimate a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and dynamic crash probability for the S&P 500 index and find that market illiquidity dominates other factors in explaining the stock market crash risk. While the crash probability is time-varying, its dynamic depends only weakly on re...

  16. A Model of Path Arrival Rate for In-Room Radio Channels with Directive Antennas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Troels

    and orientation are picked uniformly at random we derive an exact expression of the mean arrival rate for a rectangular room predicted by the mirror source theory. The rate is quadratic in delay, inversely proportional to the room volume, and proportional to the product of beam coverage fractions...... that the power-delay spectrum is unaffected by the antenna directivity. However, Monte Carlo simulations show that antenna directivity does indeed play an important role for the distribution of instantaneous mean delay and rms delay spread....

  17. Timing of initial arrival at the breeding site predicts age at first reproduction in a long-lived migratory bird

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Peter H.; Dittmann, Tobias; Ludwigs, Jan-Dieter; Limmer, Bente; Ludwig, Sonja C.; Bauch, Christina; Braasch, Alexander; Wendeln, Helmut

    2008-01-01

    In long-lived vertebrates, individuals generally visit potential breeding areas or populations during one or more seasons before reproducing for the first time. During these years of prospecting, they select a future breeding site, colony, or mate and improve various skills and their physical condition to meet the requirements of reproduction. One precondition of successful reproduction is arrival in time on the breeding grounds. Here, we study the intricate links among the date of initial spring arrival, body mass, sex, and the age of first breeding in the common tern Sterna hirundo, a long-lived migratory colonial seabird. The study is based on a unique, individual-based, long-term dataset of sexed birds, marked with transponders, which allow recording their individual arrival, overall attendance, and clutch initiation remotely and automatically year by year over the entire lifetime at the natal colony site. We show that the seasonal date of initial arrival at the breeding grounds predicts the individual age at first reproduction, which mostly occurs years later. Late first-time arrivals remain delayed birds throughout subsequent years. Our findings reveal that timing of arrival at the site of reproduction and timing of reproduction itself are coherent parameters of individual quality, which are linked with the prospects of the breeding career and may have consequences for fitness. PMID:18711134

  18. Pipe Wall Thinning Evaluation through the Arrival Time Delay of A0 Lamb Wave Using Magnetostrictive Patch Transducers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, Seung Hyun; Kwon, Hyu Sang; Ahn, Bong Young; Lee, Seung Seok [Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2008-12-15

    Guided wave technology is advantageous for fast inspection of pipe wall thinning since the guided wave propagates long distance. In this investigation, the method to evaluate gradual wall thinning in a pipe based on the arrival time delay with magnetostrictive patch transducers is presented. Low frequency A0 Lamb waves were generated and measured by the present transducer and it was applied to arrival time delay measurement experiments on a test pipe having gradual wall thinnings artificially manufactured. From experiments, consistent results that wall thinning increases the arrival time delay of A0 waves were obtained. Consequently, the feasibility of the magnetostrictive patch transducers to evaluate wall thinning was verified

  19. Pipe Wall Thinning Evaluation through the Arrival Time Delay of A0 Lamb Wave Using Magnetostrictive Patch Transducers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Seung Hyun; Kwon, Hyu Sang; Ahn, Bong Young; Lee, Seung Seok

    2008-01-01

    Guided wave technology is advantageous for fast inspection of pipe wall thinning since the guided wave propagates long distance. In this investigation, the method to evaluate gradual wall thinning in a pipe based on the arrival time delay with magnetostrictive patch transducers is presented. Low frequency A0 Lamb waves were generated and measured by the present transducer and it was applied to arrival time delay measurement experiments on a test pipe having gradual wall thinnings artificially manufactured. From experiments, consistent results that wall thinning increases the arrival time delay of A0 waves were obtained. Consequently, the feasibility of the magnetostrictive patch transducers to evaluate wall thinning was verified

  20. Retinal fluorescein contrast arrival time of young patients with the hepatosplenic form of the Schistosomiasis mansoni

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Catarina Delgado de Souza

    2002-10-01

    Full Text Available Schistosoma mansoni is responsible for lesions that can alter the hemodinamic of the portal venous circulation, lung arterial and venous sistemic systems. Therefore, hemodinamic changes in the ocular circulation of mansonic schistosomotic patients with portal hypertension and hepatofugal venous blood flow is also probable. The purpose of this study was to determine the fluorescein contrast arrival time at the retina of young patients with the hepatosplenic form of schistosomiasis, clinically and surgically treated. The control group included 36 non schistosomotic patients, mean age of 17.3 years, and the case group was represented by 25 schistosomotic patients, mean age of 18.2 years, who were cared for at The University Hospital (Federal University of Pernambuco, Brazil, from 1990 to 2001. They underwent digital angiofluoresceinography and were evaluated for the contrast arrival time at the early retinal venous phase of the exam. Both groups were ophthalmologically examined at the same hospital (Altino Ventura Foundation, Recife, Brazil, using the same technique. There was retardation of the retinal contrast arrival time equal or more than 70 sec in the eyes of three schistosomotic patients (12% and in none of the control group, however, the mean contrast arrival time between the two groups were not statistically different. These findings lend support to the hypothesis that there could be a delay of the eye venous blood flow drainage.

  1. Health Assimilation among Hispanic Immigrants in the United States: The Impact of Ignoring Arrival-cohort Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Tod G; Palermo, Tia; Green, Tiffany L

    2015-12-01

    A large literature has documented that Hispanic immigrants have a health advantage over their U.S.-born counterparts upon arrival in the United States. Few studies, however, have disentangled the effects of immigrants' arrival cohort from their tenure of U.S. residence, an omission that could produce imprecise estimates of the degree of health decline experienced by Hispanic immigrants as their U.S. tenure increases. Using data from the 1996-to-2014 waves of the March Current Population Survey, we show that the health (i.e., self-rated health) of Hispanic immigrants varies by both arrival cohort and U.S. tenure for immigrants hailing from most of the primary sending countries/regions of Hispanic immigrants. We also find evidence that acculturation plays an important role in determining the health trajectories of Hispanic immigrants. With respect to self-rated health, however, our findings demonstrate that omitting arrival-cohort measures from health assimilation models may result in overestimates of the degree of downward health assimilation experienced by Hispanic immigrants. © American Sociological Association 2015.

  2. Time-Varying Biased Proportional Guidance with Seeker’s Field-of-View Limit

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Zhe; Wang, Hui; Lin, Defu

    2016-01-01

    Traditional guidance laws with range-to-go information or time-to-go estimation may not be implemented in passive homing missiles since passive seekers cannot measure relative range directly. A time-varying biased proportional guidance law, which only uses line-of-sight (LOS) rate and look angle information, is proposed to satisfy both impact angle constraint and seeker’s field-of-view (FOV) limit. In the proposed guidance law, two time-varying bias terms are applied to divide the trajectory ...

  3. THE NANOGRAV NINE-YEAR DATA SET: EXCESS NOISE IN MILLISECOND PULSAR ARRIVAL TIMES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lam, M. T.; Jones, M. L.; McLaughlin, M. A.; Pennucci, T. T. [Department of Physics, West Virginia University, White Hall, Morgantown, WV 26506 (United States); Cordes, J. M.; Chatterjee, S. [Department of Astronomy and Cornell Center for Astrophysics and Planetary Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States); Arzoumanian, Z. [Center for Research and Exploration in Space Science and Technology and X-Ray Astrophysics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 662, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Crowter, K.; Fonseca, E.; Gonzalez, M. E. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of British Columbia, 6224 Agricultural Road, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z1 (Canada); Demorest, P. B. [National Radio Astronomy Observatory, P.O. Box 0, Socorro, NM, 87801 (United States); Dolch, T. [Department of Physics, Hillsdale College, 33 E. College Street, Hillsdale, MI 49242 (United States); Ellis, J. A [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena CA, 91109 (United States); Ferdman, R. D. [Department of Physics, McGill University, 3600 rue Universite, Montreal, QC H3A 2T8 (Canada); Jones, G. [Department of Physics, Columbia University, 550 W. 120th Street, New York, NY 10027 (United States); Levin, L. [Jodrell Bank Centre for Astrophysics, School of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL (United Kingdom); Madison, D. R.; Ransom, S. M. [National Radio Astronomy Observatory, 520 Edgemont Road, Charlottesville, VA 22903 (United States); Nice, D. J. [Department of Physics, Lafayette College, Easton, PA 18042 (United States); Shannon, R. M., E-mail: michael.lam@mail.wvu.edu [CSIRO Astronomy and Space Science, Australia Telescope National Facility, Box 76, Epping NSW 1710 (Australia); and others

    2017-01-01

    Gravitational wave (GW) astronomy using a pulsar timing array requires high-quality millisecond pulsars (MSPs), correctable interstellar propagation delays, and high-precision measurements of pulse times of arrival. Here we identify noise in timing residuals that exceeds that predicted for arrival time estimation for MSPs observed by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. We characterize the excess noise using variance and structure function analyses. We find that 26 out of 37 pulsars show inconsistencies with a white-noise-only model based on the short timescale analysis of each pulsar, and we demonstrate that the excess noise has a red power spectrum for 15 pulsars. We also decompose the excess noise into chromatic (radio-frequency-dependent) and achromatic components. Associating the achromatic red-noise component with spin noise and including additional power-spectrum-based estimates from the literature, we estimate a scaling law in terms of spin parameters (frequency and frequency derivative) and data-span length and compare it to the scaling law of Shannon and Cordes. We briefly discuss our results in terms of detection of GWs at nanohertz frequencies.

  4. Hepatic Vein Arrival Time for Diagnosis of Liver Cirrhosis: A 10-Year Single-Center Experience With Contrast-Enhanced Sonography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbattista, Teresa; Ridolfi, Francesco; Consalvo, Giovanni Traina; Brunelli, Eugenio

    2016-10-01

    To evaluate the performance of contrast-enhanced sonography with a second-generation contrast agent in assessing the severity of chronic diffuse liver disease and differentiating cirrhotic from noncirrhotic liver disease. Contrast-enhanced sonography was performed after intravenous bolus injection of a second-generation contrast agent in 14 healthy control participants and 160 consecutive patients with cirrhotic and noncirrhotic liver disease (n = 78 and 82, respectively) enrolled between March 2004 and April 2014. The intensity of enhancement in a main hepatic vein was used to determine hepatic vein arrival time, time to peak intensity, and peak contrast enhancement. The hepatic vein arrival time was lower in cirrhotic patients compared with both noncirrhotic patients and controls (mean ± SD, 15.0 ± 2.8, 21.5 ± 3.4, and 25.6 ± 4.7 seconds, respectively; P < .05). The hepatic vein arrival time in noncirrhotic patients was also significantly lower than that in controls (P < .05). The time to peak intensity was significantly lower in cirrhotic patients compared with noncirrhotic patients and controls (40.7 ± 13.7, 49.4 ± 12.8, and 51.2 ± 13.7 seconds; P < .05). A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that the hepatic vein arrival time more accurately excluded a diagnosis of liver cirrhosis than the time to peak intensity (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.953 versus 0.694). Specifically, a hepatic vein arrival time cutoff value of 17 seconds excluded liver cirrhosis with 91.1% sensitivity and 93.6% specificity. Contrast-enhanced sonography is a valid alternative method for noninvasive staging of liver diseases. The hepatic vein arrival time could be used to exclude liver cirrhosis in a clinical setting.

  5. Home visits: why do rates vary so much?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Stewart, P

    2012-03-01

    Data including information on patient age, gender, who initiated the visit and call classification was collected during office hours from 12 G.P. rural teaching practices with a combined GMS patient population of 24,720, over a 2 month period. There were a total of 603 home visits, giving an annual visiting rate of 143\\/1000. Visiting rates varied between practices from 45 to 305\\/1000 per year. When high visiting practices (>210\\/1000\\/year) were compared to low visiting rate practices (>90\\/1000\\/year), patients tended to be older (79.7 v. 74.5 years) and calls were 12 times more likely to be doctor initiated (16.6% v. 1.4%) or classified as routine( 50.7% v. 44.9%). The variation between practices was related in part to patient age but appears largely due to differences in doctor home visiting behaviour. There are no recent figures on home visiting in Ireland.

  6. Sex-Specific Arrival Times on the Breeding Grounds: Hybridizing Migratory Skuas Provide Empirical Support for the Role of Sex Ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisovski, Simeon; Fröhlich, Anne; von Tersch, Matthew; Klaassen, Marcel; Peter, Hans-Ulrich; Ritz, Markus S

    2016-04-01

    In migratory animals, protandry (earlier arrival of males on the breeding grounds) prevails over protogyny (females preceding males). In theory, sex differences in timing of arrival should be driven by the operational sex ratio, shifting toward protogyny in female-biased populations. However, empirical support for this hypothesis is, to date, lacking. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed arrival data from three populations of the long-distance migratory south polar skua (Catharacta maccormicki). These populations differed in their operational sex ratio caused by the unidirectional hybridization of male south polar skuas with female brown skuas (Catharacta antarctica lonnbergi). We found that arrival times were protandrous in allopatry, shifting toward protogyny in female-biased populations when breeding in sympatry. This unique observation is consistent with theoretical predictions that sex-specific arrival times should be influenced by sex ratio and that protogyny should be observed in populations with female-biased operational sex ratio.

  7. Continuous time modelling with individually varying time intervals for oscillating and non-oscillating processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voelkle, Manuel C; Oud, Johan H L

    2013-02-01

    When designing longitudinal studies, researchers often aim at equal intervals. In practice, however, this goal is hardly ever met, with different time intervals between assessment waves and different time intervals between individuals being more the rule than the exception. One of the reasons for the introduction of continuous time models by means of structural equation modelling has been to deal with irregularly spaced assessment waves (e.g., Oud & Delsing, 2010). In the present paper we extend the approach to individually varying time intervals for oscillating and non-oscillating processes. In addition, we show not only that equal intervals are unnecessary but also that it can be advantageous to use unequal sampling intervals, in particular when the sampling rate is low. Two examples are provided to support our arguments. In the first example we compare a continuous time model of a bivariate coupled process with varying time intervals to a standard discrete time model to illustrate the importance of accounting for the exact time intervals. In the second example the effect of different sampling intervals on estimating a damped linear oscillator is investigated by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. We conclude that it is important to account for individually varying time intervals, and encourage researchers to conceive of longitudinal studies with different time intervals within and between individuals as an opportunity rather than a problem. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

  8. Simulation studies of the information content of muon arrival time observations of high energy extensive air showers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brancus, I.; Duma, M.; Badea, A. F.; Aiftimiei, C.; Rebel, M. H.; Oehlschlaeger, J.

    2001-01-01

    By extensive Monte Carlo calculations, using the air shower simulation code CORSIKA, EAS muon arrival time distributions and EAS time profiles up to 320 m distances from the shower centre have been generated, for proton, oxygen and iron induced showers using different hadronic interaction models as Monte Carlo generators. The model dependence and mass discriminating features have been scrutinized for three energy ranges, (1-1.7783) 10 15 eV, (1.-1.78) 10 16 eV and (1.78-3.16) 10 16 eV, by use of non-parametric statistical inference method applied to multidimensional distributions, correlating the EAS time quantities with different other EAS observables. The correlations of local muon arrival times with the local muon density and the shower age indicate a good mass separation quality at larger shower distances. The best discrimination was obtained by adding the correlation with N μ tr quantity. The comparison between 'local times', with reference to the first registered muon and 'global times' with reference to the arrival time of the shower core, indicates a slightly better mass discrimination in the case of muon 'global' time distributions. (authors)

  9. Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

    2013-06-01

    Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an “adaptive threshold,” i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

  10. Modelling Conditional and Unconditional Heteroskedasticity with Smoothly Time-Varying Structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Christina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    multiplier type misspecification tests. Finite-sample properties of these procedures and tests are examined by simulation. An empirical application to daily stock returns and another one to daily exchange rate returns illustrate the functioning and properties of our modelling strategy in practice......In this paper, we propose two parametric alternatives to the standard GARCH model. They allow the conditional variance to have a smooth time-varying structure of either ad- ditive or multiplicative type. The suggested parameterizations describe both nonlinearity and structural change...... in the conditional and unconditional variances where the transition between regimes over time is smooth. A modelling strategy for these new time-varying parameter GARCH models is developed. It relies on a sequence of Lagrange multiplier tests, and the adequacy of the estimated models is investigated by Lagrange...

  11. Automatic detection of P- and S-wave arrival times: new strategies based on the modified fractal method and basic matching pursuit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chi Durán, R. K.; Comte, D.; Diaz, M. A.; Silva, J. F.

    2017-12-01

    In this work, new strategies for automatic identification of P- and S-wave arrival times from digital recorded local seismograms are proposed and analyzed. The database of arrival times previously identified by a human reader was compared with automatic identification techniques based on the Fourier transformation in reduced time (spectrograms), fractal analysis, and the basic matching pursuit algorithm. The first two techniques were used to identify the P-wave arrival times, while the third was used for the identification of the S-wave. For validation, the results were compared with the short-time average over long-time average (STA/LTA) of Rietbrock et al., Geophys Res Lett 39(8), (2012) for the database of aftershocks of the 2010 Maule Mw = 8.8 earthquake. The identifiers proposed in this work exhibit good results that outperform the STA/LTA identifier in many scenarios. The average difference from the reference picks (times obtained by the human reader) in P- and S-wave arrival times is 1 s.

  12. Time interval between stroke onset and hospital arrival in acute ischemic stroke patients in Shanghai, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Jing; Yan, Weihong; Jiang, Guo-Xin; Li, Wei; Cheng, Qi

    2011-02-01

    To observe the time interval between stroke onset and hospital arrival (time-to-hospital) in acute ischemic stroke patients and analyze its putatively associated factors. During the period from November 1, 2006 to August 31, 2008, patients with acute ischemic stroke admitted consecutively to the Department of Neurology, Ninth Hospital, Shanghai, were enrolled in the study. Information of the patients was registered including the time-to-hospital, demographic data, history of stroke, season at attack, neurological symptom at onset, etc. Characteristics of the patients were analyzed and logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with the time-to-hospital. There were 536 patients in the study, 290 (54.1%) males and 246 (45.9%) females. The median time-to-hospital was 8h (ranged from 0.1 to 300 h) for all patients. Within 3h after the onset of stroke, 162 patients (30.2%) arrived at our hospital; and within 6h, 278 patients (51.9%). Patients with a history of stroke, unconsciousness at onset, or a high NIHSS score at admission had significantly less time-to-hospital. The time interval between stroke onset and hospital arrival was importance of seeking immediate medical help after stroke onset of patients and their relatives could significantly influence their actions. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Design of 2D time-varying vector fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Guoning; Kwatra, Vivek; Wei, Li-Yi; Hansen, Charles D; Zhang, Eugene

    2012-10-01

    Design of time-varying vector fields, i.e., vector fields that can change over time, has a wide variety of important applications in computer graphics. Existing vector field design techniques do not address time-varying vector fields. In this paper, we present a framework for the design of time-varying vector fields, both for planar domains as well as manifold surfaces. Our system supports the creation and modification of various time-varying vector fields with desired spatial and temporal characteristics through several design metaphors, including streamlines, pathlines, singularity paths, and bifurcations. These design metaphors are integrated into an element-based design to generate the time-varying vector fields via a sequence of basis field summations or spatial constrained optimizations at the sampled times. The key-frame design and field deformation are also introduced to support other user design scenarios. Accordingly, a spatial-temporal constrained optimization and the time-varying transformation are employed to generate the desired fields for these two design scenarios, respectively. We apply the time-varying vector fields generated using our design system to a number of important computer graphics applications that require controllable dynamic effects, such as evolving surface appearance, dynamic scene design, steerable crowd movement, and painterly animation. Many of these are difficult or impossible to achieve via prior simulation-based methods. In these applications, the time-varying vector fields have been applied as either orientation fields or advection fields to control the instantaneous appearance or evolving trajectories of the dynamic effects.

  14. Arrival metering fuel consumption analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Arrival metering is a method of time-based traffic management that is used by the Federal Aviation Administration to plan and manage streams of arrival traffic during periods of : high demand at busy airports. The Traffic Management Advisor is an aut...

  15. An innovative method for automatic determination of time of arrival for Lamb waves excited by impact events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Junxiao; Parvasi, Seyed Mohammad; Ho, Siu Chun Michael; Patil, Devendra; Ge, Maochen; Li, Hongnan; Song, Gangbing

    2017-05-01

    Lamb waves have great potential as a diagnostic tool in the application of structural health monitoring. Propagation properties of Lamb waves are affected by the state of the structure that the waves are traveling upon. Thus Lamb waves can carry information about the structure as they travel across a structure. However, the dispersive, multimodal and attenuation characteristics of Lamb waves make it difficult to determine the time of arrival of Lamb waves. To deal with these characteristics, an innovative method to automatically determine the time of arrival for impact-induced Lamb waves without human intervention is proposed in this paper. Lead zirconate titanate sensors mounted on the surface of an aluminum plate were used to measure the Lamb waves excited by an impact. The time of arrival was determined based on wavelet decomposition, Hilbert transform and statistics (Grubbs’ test and maximum likelihood estimation). Both of numerical analysis and physical measurements have verified the accuracy of this method for impacts on an aluminum plate.

  16. Exponential stability of switched linear systems with time-varying delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satiracoo Pairote

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available We use a Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional approach to establish the exponential stability of linear systems with time-varying delay. Our delay-dependent condition allows to compute simultaneously the two bounds that characterize the exponential stability rate of the solution. A simple procedure for constructing switching rule is also presented.

  17. Design of 2D Time-Varying Vector Fields

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Guoning

    2012-10-01

    Design of time-varying vector fields, i.e., vector fields that can change over time, has a wide variety of important applications in computer graphics. Existing vector field design techniques do not address time-varying vector fields. In this paper, we present a framework for the design of time-varying vector fields, both for planar domains as well as manifold surfaces. Our system supports the creation and modification of various time-varying vector fields with desired spatial and temporal characteristics through several design metaphors, including streamlines, pathlines, singularity paths, and bifurcations. These design metaphors are integrated into an element-based design to generate the time-varying vector fields via a sequence of basis field summations or spatial constrained optimizations at the sampled times. The key-frame design and field deformation are also introduced to support other user design scenarios. Accordingly, a spatial-temporal constrained optimization and the time-varying transformation are employed to generate the desired fields for these two design scenarios, respectively. We apply the time-varying vector fields generated using our design system to a number of important computer graphics applications that require controllable dynamic effects, such as evolving surface appearance, dynamic scene design, steerable crowd movement, and painterly animation. Many of these are difficult or impossible to achieve via prior simulation-based methods. In these applications, the time-varying vector fields have been applied as either orientation fields or advection fields to control the instantaneous appearance or evolving trajectories of the dynamic effects. © 1995-2012 IEEE.

  18. Design of 2D Time-Varying Vector Fields

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Guoning; Kwatra, Vivek; Wei, Li-Yi; Hansen, Charles D.; Zhang, Eugene

    2012-01-01

    Design of time-varying vector fields, i.e., vector fields that can change over time, has a wide variety of important applications in computer graphics. Existing vector field design techniques do not address time-varying vector fields. In this paper, we present a framework for the design of time-varying vector fields, both for planar domains as well as manifold surfaces. Our system supports the creation and modification of various time-varying vector fields with desired spatial and temporal characteristics through several design metaphors, including streamlines, pathlines, singularity paths, and bifurcations. These design metaphors are integrated into an element-based design to generate the time-varying vector fields via a sequence of basis field summations or spatial constrained optimizations at the sampled times. The key-frame design and field deformation are also introduced to support other user design scenarios. Accordingly, a spatial-temporal constrained optimization and the time-varying transformation are employed to generate the desired fields for these two design scenarios, respectively. We apply the time-varying vector fields generated using our design system to a number of important computer graphics applications that require controllable dynamic effects, such as evolving surface appearance, dynamic scene design, steerable crowd movement, and painterly animation. Many of these are difficult or impossible to achieve via prior simulation-based methods. In these applications, the time-varying vector fields have been applied as either orientation fields or advection fields to control the instantaneous appearance or evolving trajectories of the dynamic effects. © 1995-2012 IEEE.

  19. A New Tool for CME Arrival Time Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms: CAT-PUMA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jiajia; Ye, Yudong; Shen, Chenglong; Wang, Yuming; Erdélyi, Robert

    2018-03-01

    Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are arguably the most violent eruptions in the solar system. CMEs can cause severe disturbances in interplanetary space and can even affect human activities in many aspects, causing damage to infrastructure and loss of revenue. Fast and accurate prediction of CME arrival time is vital to minimize the disruption that CMEs may cause when interacting with geospace. In this paper, we propose a new approach for partial-/full halo CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms (CAT-PUMA). Via detailed analysis of the CME features and solar-wind parameters, we build a prediction engine taking advantage of 182 previously observed geo-effective partial-/full halo CMEs and using algorithms of the Support Vector Machine. We demonstrate that CAT-PUMA is accurate and fast. In particular, predictions made after applying CAT-PUMA to a test set unknown to the engine show a mean absolute prediction error of ∼5.9 hr within the CME arrival time, with 54% of the predictions having absolute errors less than 5.9 hr. Comparisons with other models reveal that CAT-PUMA has a more accurate prediction for 77% of the events investigated that can be carried out very quickly, i.e., within minutes of providing the necessary input parameters of a CME. A practical guide containing the CAT-PUMA engine and the source code of two examples are available in the Appendix, allowing the community to perform their own applications for prediction using CAT-PUMA.

  20. Real-time Kalman filter implementation for active feedforward control of time-varying broadband noise and vibrations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ophem, S. van; Berkhoff, A.P.

    2012-01-01

    Tracking behavior and the rate of convergence are critical properties in active noise control applications with time-varying disturbance spectra. As compared to the standard filtered-reference Least Mean Square (LMS) algorithm, improved convergence can be obtained with schemes based on

  1. A method for detecting crack wave arrival time and crack localization in a tunnel by using moving window technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Young Chul; Park, Tae Jin [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    Source localization in a dispersive medium has been carried out based on the time-of-arrival-differences (TOADs) method: a triangulation method and a circle intersection technique. Recent signal processing advances have led to calculation TOAD using a joint time-frequency analysis of the signal, where a short-time Fourier transform(STFT) and wavelet transform can be included as popular algorithms. The time-frequency analysis method is able to provide various information and more reliable results such as seismic-attenuation estimation, dispersive characteristics, a wave mode analysis, and temporal energy distribution of signals compared with previous methods. These algorithms, however, have their own limitations for signal processing. In this paper, the effective use of proposed algorithm in detecting crack wave arrival time and source localization in rock masses suggest that the evaluation and real-time monitoring on the intensity of damages related to the tunnels or other underground facilities is possible. Calculation of variances resulted from moving windows as a function of their size differentiates the signature from noise and from crack signal, which lead us to determine the crack wave arrival time. Then, the source localization is determined to be where the variance of crack wave velocities from real and virtual crack localization becomes a minimum. To validate our algorithm, we have performed experiments at the tunnel, which resulted in successful determination of the wave arrival time and crack localization.

  2. Global Stability of Polytopic Linear Time-Varying Dynamic Systems under Time-Varying Point Delays and Impulsive Controls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. de la Sen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the stability properties of a class of dynamic linear systems possessing several linear time-invariant parameterizations (or configurations which conform a linear time-varying polytopic dynamic system with a finite number of time-varying time-differentiable point delays. The parameterizations may be timevarying and with bounded discontinuities and they can be subject to mixed regular plus impulsive controls within a sequence of time instants of zero measure. The polytopic parameterization for the dynamics associated with each delay is specific, so that (q+1 polytopic parameterizations are considered for a system with q delays being also subject to delay-free dynamics. The considered general dynamic system includes, as particular cases, a wide class of switched linear systems whose individual parameterizations are timeinvariant which are governed by a switching rule. However, the dynamic system under consideration is viewed as much more general since it is time-varying with timevarying delays and the bounded discontinuous changes of active parameterizations are generated by impulsive controls in the dynamics and, at the same time, there is not a prescribed set of candidate potential parameterizations.

  3. Determination of P – wave arrival time of acoustic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matěj Petružálek

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The new approach to the P-wave arrival time determination based on acoustic emission data from loading experiments is tested.The algorithm used in this paper is built on the STA/LTA function computed by a convolution that speeds up the computation processvery much. The picking process makes use of shifting of temporary onset until certain conditions are fulfill and as a main decisioncriterion on the threshold exceeding of the STA/LTA derivation function is used. The P-wave onset time is determined in a selectedinterval that corresponds to the theoretical propagation of elastic wave in the rock sample. Results obtained by our algorithm werecorrelated with data acquired manually and a high order statistic software as well.

  4. Multi-disciplinary techniques for understanding time-varying space-based imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casasent, D.; Sanderson, A.; Kanade, T.

    1984-06-01

    A multidisciplinary program for space-based image processing is reported. This project combines optical and digital processing techniques and pattern recognition, image understanding and artificial intelligence methodologies. Time change image processing was recognized as the key issue to be addressed. Three time change scenarios were defined based on the frame rate of the data change. This report details the recent research on: various statistical and deterministic image features, recognition of sub-pixel targets in time varying imagery, and 3-D object modeling and recognition.

  5. A hepatitis C virus infection model with time-varying drug effectiveness: solution and analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica M Conway

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Simple models of therapy for viral diseases such as hepatitis C virus (HCV or human immunodeficiency virus assume that, once therapy is started, the drug has a constant effectiveness. More realistic models have assumed either that the drug effectiveness depends on the drug concentration or that the effectiveness varies over time. Here a previously introduced varying-effectiveness (VE model is studied mathematically in the context of HCV infection. We show that while the model is linear, it has no closed-form solution due to the time-varying nature of the effectiveness. We then show that the model can be transformed into a Bessel equation and derive an analytic solution in terms of modified Bessel functions, which are defined as infinite series, with time-varying arguments. Fitting the solution to data from HCV infected patients under therapy has yielded values for the parameters in the model. We show that for biologically realistic parameters, the predicted viral decay on therapy is generally biphasic and resembles that predicted by constant-effectiveness (CE models. We introduce a general method for determining the time at which the transition between decay phases occurs based on calculating the point of maximum curvature of the viral decay curve. For the parameter regimes of interest, we also find approximate solutions for the VE model and establish the asymptotic behavior of the system. We show that the rate of second phase decay is determined by the death rate of infected cells multiplied by the maximum effectiveness of therapy, whereas the rate of first phase decline depends on multiple parameters including the rate of increase of drug effectiveness with time.

  6. Ready...go: Amplitude of the FMRI signal encodes expectation of cue arrival time.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Cui

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available What happens when the brain awaits a signal of uncertain arrival time, as when a sprinter waits for the starting pistol? And what happens just after the starting pistol fires? Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, we have discovered a novel correlate of temporal expectations in several brain regions, most prominently in the supplementary motor area (SMA. Contrary to expectations, we found little fMRI activity during the waiting period; however, a large signal appears after the "go" signal, the amplitude of which reflects learned expectations about the distribution of possible waiting times. Specifically, the amplitude of the fMRI signal appears to encode a cumulative conditional probability, also known as the cumulative hazard function. The fMRI signal loses its dependence on waiting time in a "countdown" condition in which the arrival time of the go cue is known in advance, suggesting that the signal encodes temporal probabilities rather than simply elapsed time. The dependence of the signal on temporal expectation is present in "no-go" conditions, demonstrating that the effect is not a consequence of motor output. Finally, the encoding is not dependent on modality, operating in the same manner with auditory or visual signals. This finding extends our understanding of the relationship between temporal expectancy and measurable neural signals.

  7. Approximate Bayesian algorithm to estimate the basic reproduction number in an influenza pandemic using arrival times of imported cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chong, Ka Chun; Zee, Benny Chung Ying; Wang, Maggie Haitian

    2018-04-10

    In an influenza pandemic, arrival times of cases are a proxy of the epidemic size and disease transmissibility. Because of intense surveillance of travelers from infected countries, detection is more rapid and complete than on local surveillance. Travel information can provide a more reliable estimation of transmission parameters. We developed an Approximate Bayesian Computation algorithm to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) in addition to the reporting rate and unobserved epidemic start time, utilizing travel, and routine surveillance data in an influenza pandemic. A simulation was conducted to assess the sampling uncertainty. The estimation approach was further applied to the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico as a case study. In the simulations, we showed that the estimation approach was valid and reliable in different simulation settings. We also found estimates of R 0 and the reporting rate to be 1.37 (95% Credible Interval [CI]: 1.26-1.42) and 4.9% (95% CI: 0.1%-18%), respectively, in the 2009 influenza pandemic in Mexico, which were robust to variations in the fixed parameters. The estimated R 0 was consistent with that in the literature. This method is useful for officials to obtain reliable estimates of disease transmissibility for strategic planning. We suggest that improvements to the flow of reporting for confirmed cases among patients arriving at different countries are required. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Networks of ·/G/∞ queues with shot-noise-driven arrival intensities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koops, D.T.; Boxma, O.J.; Mandjes, M.R.H.

    2017-01-01

    We study infinite-server queues in which the arrival process is a Cox process (or doubly stochastic Poisson process), of which the arrival rate is given by a shot-noise process. A shot-noise rate emerges naturally in cases where the arrival rate tends to exhibit sudden increases (or shots) at random

  9. Application on technique of joint time-frequency analysis of seismic signal's first arrival estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Chaoyang; Liu Junmin; Fan Yanfang; Ji Guohua

    2008-01-01

    Joint time-frequency analysis is conducted to construct one joint density function of time and frequency. It can open out one signal's frequency components and their evolvements. It is the new evolvement of Fourier analysis. In this paper, according to the characteristic of seismic signal's noise, one estimation method of seismic signal's first arrival based on triple correlation of joint time-frequency spectrum is introduced, and the results of experiment and conclusion are presented. (authors)

  10. Exponential stability of fuzzy cellular neural networks with constant and time-varying delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Yanqing; Tang Wansheng

    2004-01-01

    In this Letter, the global stability of delayed fuzzy cellular neural networks (FCNN) with either constant delays or time varying delays is proposed. Firstly, we give the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium point by using the theory of topological degree and the properties of nonsingular M-matrix and the sufficient conditions for ascertaining the global exponential stability by constructing a suitable Lyapunov functional. Secondly, the criteria for guaranteeing the global exponential stability of FCNN with time varying delays are given and the estimation of exponential convergence rate with regard to speed of vary of delays is presented by constructing a suitable Lyapunov functional

  11. Upper mantle seismic velocity anomaly beneath southern Taiwan as revealed by teleseismic relative arrival times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Po-Fei; Huang, Bor-Shouh; Chiao, Ling-Yun

    2011-01-01

    Probing the lateral heterogeneity of the upper mantle seismic velocity structure beneath southern and central Taiwan is critical to understanding the local tectonics and orogeny. A linear broadband array that transects southern Taiwan, together with carefully selected teleseismic sources with the right azimuth provides useful constraints. They are capable of differentiating the lateral heterogeneity along the profile with systematic coverage of ray paths. We implement a scheme based on the genetic algorithm to simultaneously determine the relative delayed times of the teleseismic first arrivals of array data. The resulting patterns of the delayed times systematically vary as a function of the incident angle. Ray tracing attributes the observed variations to a high velocity anomaly dipping east in the mantle beneath the southeast of Taiwan. Combining the ray tracing analysis and a pseudo-spectral method to solve the 2-D wave propagations, we determine the extent of the anomaly that best fits the observations via the forward grid search. The east-dipping fast anomaly in the upper mantle beneath the southeast of Taiwan agrees with the results from several previous studies and indicates that the nature of the local ongoing arc-continent collision is likely characterized by the thin-skinned style.

  12. Timed arrays wideband and time varying antenna arrays

    CERN Document Server

    Haupt, Randy L

    2015-01-01

    Introduces timed arrays and design approaches to meet the new high performance standards The author concentrates on any aspect of an antenna array that must be viewed from a time perspective. The first chapters briefly introduce antenna arrays and explain the difference between phased and timed arrays. Since timed arrays are designed for realistic time-varying signals and scenarios, the book also reviews wideband signals, baseband and passband RF signals, polarization and signal bandwidth. Other topics covered include time domain, mutual coupling, wideband elements, and dispersion. The auth

  13. Time of arrival based location estimation for cooperative relay networks

    KAUST Repository

    Ç elebi, Hasari Burak; Abdallah, Mohamed M.; Hussain, Syed Imtiaz; Qaraqe, Khalid A.; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the performance of a cooperative relay network performing location estimation through time of arrival (TOA). We derive Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) for the location estimates using the relay network. The analysis is extended to obtain average CRLB considering the signal fluctuations in both relay and direct links. The effects of the channel fading of both relay and direct links and amplification factor and location of the relay node on average CRLB are investigated. Simulation results show that the channel fading of both relay and direct links and amplification factor and location of relay node affect the accuracy of TOA based location estimation. ©2010 IEEE.

  14. Time of arrival based location estimation for cooperative relay networks

    KAUST Repository

    Çelebi, Hasari Burak

    2010-09-01

    In this paper, we investigate the performance of a cooperative relay network performing location estimation through time of arrival (TOA). We derive Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) for the location estimates using the relay network. The analysis is extended to obtain average CRLB considering the signal fluctuations in both relay and direct links. The effects of the channel fading of both relay and direct links and amplification factor and location of the relay node on average CRLB are investigated. Simulation results show that the channel fading of both relay and direct links and amplification factor and location of relay node affect the accuracy of TOA based location estimation. ©2010 IEEE.

  15. Network Coded Cooperation Over Time-Varying Channels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khamfroush, Hana; Roetter, Daniel Enrique Lucani; Barros, João

    2014-01-01

    transmissions, e.g., in terms of the rate of packet transmission or the energy consumption. A comprehensive analysis of the MDP solution is carried out under different network conditions to extract optimal rules of packet transmission. Inspired by the extracted rules, we propose two near-optimal heuristics......In this paper, we investigate the optimal design of cooperative network-coded strategies for a three-node wireless network with time-varying, half-duplex erasure channels. To this end, we formulate the problem of minimizing the total cost of transmitting M packets from source to two receivers...... as a Markov Decision Process (MDP). The actions of the MDP model include the source and the type of transmission to be used in a given time slot given perfect knowledge of the system state. The cost of packet transmission is defined such that it can incorporate the difference between broadcast and unicast...

  16. Marginal Bayesian nonparametric model for time to disease arrival of threatened amphibian populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Haiming; Hanson, Timothy; Knapp, Roland

    2015-12-01

    The global emergence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused the extinction of hundreds of amphibian species worldwide. It has become increasingly important to be able to precisely predict time to Bd arrival in a population. The data analyzed herein present a unique challenge in terms of modeling because there is a strong spatial component to Bd arrival time and the traditional proportional hazards assumption is grossly violated. To address these concerns, we develop a novel marginal Bayesian nonparametric survival model for spatially correlated right-censored data. This class of models assumes that the logarithm of survival times marginally follow a mixture of normal densities with a linear-dependent Dirichlet process prior as the random mixing measure, and their joint distribution is induced by a Gaussian copula model with a spatial correlation structure. To invert high-dimensional spatial correlation matrices, we adopt a full-scale approximation that can capture both large- and small-scale spatial dependence. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm with delayed rejection is proposed for posterior computation, and an R package spBayesSurv is provided to fit the model. This approach is first evaluated through simulations, then applied to threatened frog populations in Sequoia-Kings Canyon National Park. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  17. Climate and the complexity of migratory phenology: sexes, migratory distance, and arrival distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macmynowski, Dena P.; Root, Terry L.

    2007-05-01

    The intra- and inter-season complexity of bird migration has received limited attention in climatic change research. Our phenological analysis of 22 species collected in Chicago, USA, (1979 2002) evaluates the relationship between multi-scalar climate variables and differences (1) in arrival timing between sexes, (2) in arrival distributions among species, and (3) between spring and fall migration. The early migratory period for earliest arriving species (i.e., short-distance migrants) and earliest arriving individuals of a species (i.e., males) most frequently correlate with climate variables. Compared to long-distance migrant species, four times as many short-distance migrants correlate with spring temperature, while 8 of 11 (73%) of long-distance migrant species’ arrival is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While migratory phenology has been correlated with NAO in Europe, we believe that this is the first documentation of a significant association in North America. Geographically proximate conditions apparently influence migratory timing for short-distance migrants while continental-scale climate (e.g., NAO) seemingly influences the phenology of Neotropical migrants. The preponderance of climate correlations is with the early migratory period, not the median of arrival, suggesting that early spring conditions constrain the onset or rate of migration for some species. The seasonal arrival distribution provides considerable information about migratory passage beyond what is apparent from statistical analyses of phenology. A relationship between climate and fall phenology is not detected at this location. Analysis of the within-season complexity of migration, including multiple metrics of arrival, is essential to detect species’ responses to changing climate as well as evaluate the underlying biological mechanisms.

  18. The time to ruin in some additive risk models with random premium rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Martin

    2012-01-01

    to have a Laplace transform that is a rational function. The main results describe the joint Laplace transform of the time at ruin and the deficit at ruin. The method used consists in finding partial eigenfunctions for the generator of the joint process consisting of the Markov process and the accumulated...... of the present value of the Markov process. The intensity for a claim to occur is another nonnegative function of the value of the Markov process. The claim arrival times are the regeneration times for the Markov process. Two-sided claims are allowed, but the distribution of the positive claims is assumed......The risk processes considered in this paper are generated by an underlying Markov process with a regenerative structure and an independent sequence of independent and identically distributed claims. Between the arrivals of claims the process increases at a rate which is a nonnegative function...

  19. One-dimensional radionuclide transport under time-varying conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gelbard, F.; Olague, N.E.; Longsine, D.E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper discusses new analytical and numerical solutions presented for one-dimensional radionuclide transport under time-varying fluid-flow conditions including radioactive decay. The analytical solution assumes that all radionuclides have identical retardation factors, and is limited to instantaneous releases. The numerical solution does not have these limitations, but is tested against the limiting case given for the analytical solution. Reasonable agreement between the two solutions was found. Examples are given for the transport of a three-member radionuclide chain transported over distances and flow rates comparable to those reported for Yucca Mountain, the proposed disposal site for high-level nuclear waste

  20. Comparison of Muon Arrival Time Distributions measured in KASCADE Experiment with Monte Carlo Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badea, A.F.; Brancus, I.M.; Haeusler, R.; Rebel, H.

    2000-01-01

    The muon arrival time distributions of Extensive Air Showers (EAS) have been studied in KASCADE experiment by data collected in the period October 1997 - April 1999 with more than 3.4 millions of reconstructed showers. The radial distance of the shower center from the central detector has been selected smaller than 110 m. The experimental muon arrival time distributions are compared with simulations of the air shower development, calculated with the Monte Carlo air shower simulation program CORSIKA. The actual calculations are based on the QGSJET model and cover an energy range of 5·10 14 - 3.06·10 16 eV (divided in 7 overlapping energy bins) and a zenith angle range of 0 angle - 40 angle. They are performed for three mass groups: H = light group, O = CNO group, Fe = heavy group) with an energy distribution of a spectral index of -2.7. The simulations comprise a set of ≅ 2000$ showers for each case, except for the bins of the highest energies (6.51·10 15 - 1.82·10 16 eV with ≅1000$ simulated showers and 1.09·10 16 - 3.06·10 16 eV with ≅ 500 simulated showers). The response of the KASCADE detector system and the timing qualities have been simulated using the CRES program, dedicatedly developed by the KASCADE group on the basis of the GEANT code. The particles of the simulated EAS are tracked through the detector setup and the timing response of the detectors are recorded for various core distances from the central detector facilities. Particularly, it should be noted that the timing depends on the energy deposit in the scintillation detectors and on the multiplicities of the muon samples spanning the arrival time distributions of the single EAS. Such effects slightly distorts the measured time distributions and have been corrected by introducing a corresponding correction procedure. The dependence of the experimental and simulated median time values on the N μ tr range, as being proportional to the primary energy, is presented. The good agreement of the

  1. A packet-based dual-rate PID control strategy for a slow-rate sensing Networked Control System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuenca, A; Alcaina, J; Salt, J; Casanova, V; Pizá, R

    2018-05-01

    This paper introduces a packet-based dual-rate control strategy to face time-varying network-induced delays, packet dropouts and packet disorder in a Networked Control System. Slow-rate sensing enables to achieve energy saving and to avoid packet disorder. Fast-rate actuation makes reaching the desired control performance possible. The dual-rate PID controller is split into two parts: a slow-rate PI controller located at the remote side (with no permanent communication to the plant) and a fast-rate PD controller located at the local side. The remote side also includes a prediction stage in order to generate the packet of future, estimated slow-rate control actions. These actions are sent to the local side and converted to fast-rate ones to be used when a packet does not arrive at this side due to the network-induced delay or due to occurring dropouts. The proposed control solution is able to approximately reach the nominal (no-delay, no-dropout) performance despite the existence of time-varying delays and packet dropouts. Control system stability is ensured in terms of probabilistic Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs). Via real-time control for a Cartesian robot, results clearly reveal the superiority of the control solution compared to a previous proposal by authors. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. THE NANOGRAV NINE-YEAR DATA SET: OBSERVATIONS, ARRIVAL TIME MEASUREMENTS, AND ANALYSIS OF 37 MILLISECOND PULSARS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arzoumanian, Zaven [Center for Research and Exploration in Space Science and Technology and X-Ray Astrophysics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 662, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Brazier, Adam; Chatterjee, Shami; Cordes, James M.; Dolch, Timothy [Department of Astronomy, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States); Burke-Spolaor, Sarah; Demorest, Paul B. [National Radio Astronomy Observatory, P.O. Box O, Socorro, NM 87801 (United States); Chamberlin, Sydney [Center for Gravitation, Cosmology and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, P.O. Box 413, Milwaukee, WI 53201 (United States); Christy, Brian [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Franklin and Marshall College, P.O. Box 3003, Lancaster, PA 17604 (United States); Cornish, Neil [Department of Physics, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717 (United States); Crowter, Kathryn; Fonseca, Emmanuel; Gonzalez, Marjorie E. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of British Columbia, 6224 Agricultural Road, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z1 (Canada); Ellis, Justin A. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Dr. Pasadena CA 91109 (United States); Ferdman, Robert D.; Kaspi, Victoria M. [Department of Physics, McGill University, 3600 rue Universite, Montreal, QC H3A 2T8 (Canada); Garver-Daniels, Nathan; Jones, Megan L. [Department of Physics, West Virginia University, P.O. Box 6315, Morgantown, WV 26505 (United States); Jenet, Fredrick A. [Center for Gravitational Wave Astronomy, University of Texas at Brownsville, Brownsville, TX 78520 (United States); Jones, Glenn, E-mail: pdemores@nrao.edu [Department of Physics, Columbia University, 550 W. 120th St. New York, NY 10027 (United States); Collaboration: NANOGrav Collaboration; and others

    2015-11-01

    We present high-precision timing observations spanning up to nine years for 37 millisecond pulsars monitored with the Green Bank and Arecibo radio telescopes as part of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) project. We describe the observational and instrumental setups used to collect the data, and methodology applied for calculating pulse times of arrival; these include novel methods for measuring instrumental offsets and characterizing low signal-to-noise ratio timing results. The time of arrival data are fit to a physical timing model for each source, including terms that characterize time-variable dispersion measure and frequency-dependent pulse shape evolution. In conjunction with the timing model fit, we have performed a Bayesian analysis of a parameterized timing noise model for each source, and detect evidence for excess low-frequency, or “red,” timing noise in 10 of the pulsars. For 5 of these cases this is likely due to interstellar medium propagation effects rather than intrisic spin variations. Subsequent papers in this series will present further analysis of this data set aimed at detecting or limiting the presence of nanohertz-frequency gravitational wave signals.

  3. Predicting Ambulance Time of Arrival to the Emergency Department Using Global Positioning System and Google Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleischman, Ross J.; Lundquist, Mark; Jui, Jonathan; Newgard, Craig D.; Warden, Craig

    2014-01-01

    Objective To derive and validate a model that accurately predicts ambulance arrival time that could be implemented as a Google Maps web application. Methods This was a retrospective study of all scene transports in Multnomah County, Oregon, from January 1 through December 31, 2008. Scene and destination hospital addresses were converted to coordinates. ArcGIS Network Analyst was used to estimate transport times based on street network speed limits. We then created a linear regression model to improve the accuracy of these street network estimates using weather, patient characteristics, use of lights and sirens, daylight, and rush-hour intervals. The model was derived from a 50% sample and validated on the remainder. Significance of the covariates was determined by p times recorded by computer-aided dispatch. We then built a Google Maps-based web application to demonstrate application in real-world EMS operations. Results There were 48,308 included transports. Street network estimates of transport time were accurate within 5 minutes of actual transport time less than 16% of the time. Actual transport times were longer during daylight and rush-hour intervals and shorter with use of lights and sirens. Age under 18 years, gender, wet weather, and trauma system entry were not significant predictors of transport time. Our model predicted arrival time within 5 minutes 73% of the time. For lights and sirens transports, accuracy was within 5 minutes 77% of the time. Accuracy was identical in the validation dataset. Lights and sirens saved an average of 3.1 minutes for transports under 8.8 minutes, and 5.3 minutes for longer transports. Conclusions An estimate of transport time based only on a street network significantly underestimated transport times. A simple model incorporating few variables can predict ambulance time of arrival to the emergency department with good accuracy. This model could be linked to global positioning system data and an automated Google Maps web

  4. Mediation analysis with time varying exposures and mediators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanderWeele, Tyler J; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J

    2017-06-01

    In this paper we consider causal mediation analysis when exposures and mediators vary over time. We give non-parametric identification results, discuss parametric implementation, and also provide a weighting approach to direct and indirect effects based on combining the results of two marginal structural models. We also discuss how our results give rise to a causal interpretation of the effect estimates produced from longitudinal structural equation models. When there are time-varying confounders affected by prior exposure and mediator, natural direct and indirect effects are not identified. However, we define a randomized interventional analogue of natural direct and indirect effects that are identified in this setting. The formula that identifies these effects we refer to as the "mediational g-formula." When there is no mediation, the mediational g-formula reduces to Robins' regular g-formula for longitudinal data. When there are no time-varying confounders affected by prior exposure and mediator values, then the mediational g-formula reduces to a longitudinal version of Pearl's mediation formula. However, the mediational g-formula itself can accommodate both mediation and time-varying confounders and constitutes a general approach to mediation analysis with time-varying exposures and mediators.

  5. Arrival-time distribution of muons in extensive air showers at energies of 1017 eV to 1018 eV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blake, P.R.; Mann, D.M.; Nash, W.F.; O'Connell, B.; Strutt, R.B.

    1982-01-01

    The results of measurements of the rise-time of muon scintillator responses recorded from extensive air showers detected at Haverah Park are described. A high-speed storage oscilloscope recording system has been used to study both the average characteristics of muon time spreads and the fluctuations in arrival-time distributions between individual showers. The average muon time spreads are found to be a function of core distance, zenith angle and muon threshold energy. There is evidence that velocity delays are an important contribution to the muon rise-times for detectors with threshold energies < approximately 500 MeV. Significant fluctuations in the muon time spreads between individual showers are found. The average characteristics of the muon arrival-time distributions are also compared with the shower computer simulations. (author)

  6. Efficient kinetic Monte Carlo method for reaction-diffusion problems with spatially varying annihilation rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Karsten; Rieger, Heiko

    2013-03-01

    We present an efficient Monte Carlo method to simulate reaction-diffusion processes with spatially varying particle annihilation or transformation rates as it occurs for instance in the context of motor-driven intracellular transport. Like Green's function reaction dynamics and first-passage time methods, our algorithm avoids small diffusive hops by propagating sufficiently distant particles in large hops to the boundaries of protective domains. Since for spatially varying annihilation or transformation rates the single particle diffusion propagator is not known analytically, we present an algorithm that generates efficiently either particle displacements or annihilations with the correct statistics, as we prove rigorously. The numerical efficiency of the algorithm is demonstrated with an illustrative example.

  7. A clinical study concerning hepatic arterial dominant phase and arrival time of contrast media on helical dynamic CT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsubara, Susumu; Uchida, Chiharu; Sato, Sei; Ishida, Junichi; Masuya, Ryozo; Makiguchi, Mako; Kanamori, Isao

    2001-01-01

    Hepatic arterial dominant phase in helical dynamic CT was optimized by measuring the arrival time of contrast media (ATCM) with time-density curve (TDC). Subjects were 1005 patients (577 males and 428 females) and 98 nodules diagnosed as advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The CT was done with Toshiba 4MHU X-vision SP, ultrasonography with Toshiba SSH-160A and automatic infusion of the contrast medium, iopamidol or iohexol, with Nemotokyorindo Autoenhance A-50. ATCM was found correlated with pulse rate and with arterial diameter, and significantly different between the sex. Elevation slope of TDC was suggested to be made constant by a defined infusion time of the dose corrected by body weight. Fluctuation of TDC among patients , when normalized by ATCM, was found smaller and the TDC was suggested to be useful for better imaging of HCC of less than 10 mm diameter. (K.H.)

  8. An analysis of the first-arrival times picked on the DSS and wide-angle seismic section recorded in Italy since 1968

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Tondi

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available We performed an analysis of refraction data recorded in Italy since 1968 in the frame of the numerous deep seismic sounding and wide-angle reflection/refraction projects. The aims of this study are to construct a parametric database including the recording geometric information relative to each profile, the phase pickings and the results of some kinematic analyses performed on the data, and to define a reference 1D velocity model for the Italian territory from all the available refraction data. As concerns the first goal, for each seismic section we picked the P-wave first-arrival-times, evaluated the uncertainties of the arrival-times pickings and determined from each travel time-offset curve the 1D velocity model. The study was performed on 419 seismic sections. Picking was carried out manually by an algorithm which includes the computation of three picking functions and the picking- error estimation. For each of the travel time-offset curves a 1D velocity model has been calculated. Actually, the 1D velocity-depth functions were estimated in three different ways which assume: a constant velocitygradient model, a varying velocity-gradient model and a layered model. As regards the second objective of this work, a mean 1D velocity model for the Italian crust was defined and compared with those used for earthquake hypocentre locations and seismic tomographic studies by different institutions operating in the Italian area, to assess the significance of the model obtained. This model can be used in future works as input for a next joint tomographic inversion of active and passive seismic data.

  9. Rate of solidification of aluminium casting in varying wall thickness of cylindrical metallic moulds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katsina Christopher BALA

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The quality of final casting mainly depends on the rate of solidification as rapid solidification produces fine grains structures with better mechanical properties. The analysis of heat transfer during the casting and solidification of aluminium alloy as well as the experimental investigation of the rate of solidification in varying thicknesses of cylindrical metallic mould was carried out. The temperature variation with time of the casting was recorded from which cooling curves were obtained for the determination of solidification time of the cast. The results showed that as the cylindrical mould thickness increases the solidification time decreases due to the chilling effect of the mould.

  10. Analysis of two production inventory systems with buffer, retrials and different production rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jose, K. P.; Nair, Salini S.

    2017-09-01

    This paper considers the comparison of two ( {s,S} ) production inventory systems with retrials of unsatisfied customers. The time for producing and adding each item to the inventory is exponentially distributed with rate β. However, a production rate α β higher than β is used at the beginning of the production. The higher production rate will reduce customers' loss when inventory level approaches zero. The demand from customers is according to a Poisson process. Service times are exponentially distributed. Upon arrival, the customers enter into a buffer of finite capacity. An arriving customer, who finds the buffer full, moves to an orbit. They can retry from there and inter-retrial times are exponentially distributed. The two models differ in the capacity of the buffer. The aim is to find the minimum value of total cost by varying different parameters and compare the efficiency of the models. The optimum value of α corresponding to minimum total cost is an important evaluation. Matrix analytic method is used to find an algorithmic solution to the problem. We also provide several numerical or graphical illustrations.

  11. PREDICTING EVAPORATION RATES AND TIMES FOR SPILLS OF CHEMICAL MIXTURES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spreadsheet and short-cut methods have been developed for predicting evaporation rates and evaporation times for spills (and constrained baths) of chemical mixtures. Steady-state and time-varying predictions of evaporation rates can be made for six-component mixtures, includ...

  12. Time-varying properties of renal autoregulatory mechanisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zou, Rui; Cupples, Will A; Yip, K P

    2002-01-01

    In order to assess the possible time-varying properties of renal autoregulation, time-frequency and time-scaling methods were applied to renal blood flow under broad-band forced arterial blood pressure fluctuations and single-nephron renal blood flow with spontaneous oscillations obtained from...... normotensive (Sprague-Dawley, Wistar, and Long-Evans) rats, and spontaneously hypertensive rats. Time-frequency analyses of normotensive and hypertensive blood flow data obtained from either the whole kidney or the single-nephron show that indeed both the myogenic and tubuloglomerular feedback (TGF) mechanisms...... have time-varying characteristics. Furthermore, we utilized the Renyi entropy to measure the complexity of blood-flow dynamics in the time-frequency plane in an effort to discern differences between normotensive and hypertensive recordings. We found a clear difference in Renyi entropy between...

  13. Adenoma detection rate varies greatly during colonoscopy training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, Sascha C.; Klanderman, Robert B.; Hazewinkel, Yark; Fockens, Paul; Dekker, Evelien

    2015-01-01

    The adenoma detection rate (ADR) is considered the most important quality indicator for colonoscopy and varies widely among colonoscopists. It is unknown whether the ADR of gastroenterology consultants can already be predicted during their colonoscopy training. To evaluate the ADR of fellows in

  14. Population extinction under bursty reproduction in a time-modulated environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilk, Ohad; Assaf, Michael

    2018-06-01

    In recent years nondemographic variability has been shown to greatly affect dynamics of stochastic populations. For example, nondemographic noise in the form of a bursty reproduction process with an a priori unknown burst size, or environmental variability in the form of time-varying reaction rates, have been separately found to dramatically impact the extinction risk of isolated populations. In this work we investigate the extinction risk of an isolated population under the combined influence of these two types of nondemographic variation. Using the so-called momentum-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) approach and accounting for the explicit time dependence in the reaction rates, we arrive at a set of time-dependent Hamilton equations. To this end, we evaluate the population's extinction risk by finding the instanton of the time-perturbed Hamiltonian numerically, whereas analytical expressions are presented in particular limits using various perturbation techniques. We focus on two classes of time-varying environments: periodically varying rates corresponding to seasonal effects and a sudden decrease in the birth rate corresponding to a catastrophe. All our theoretical results are tested against numerical Monte Carlo simulations with time-dependent rates and also against a numerical solution of the corresponding time-dependent Hamilton equations.

  15. Locating single-point sources from arrival times containing large picking errors (LPEs): the virtual field optimization method (VFOM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xi-Bing; Wang, Ze-Wei; Dong, Long-Jun

    2016-01-01

    Microseismic monitoring systems using local location techniques tend to be timely, automatic and stable. One basic requirement of these systems is the automatic picking of arrival times. However, arrival times generated by automated techniques always contain large picking errors (LPEs), which may make the location solution unreliable and cause the integrated system to be unstable. To overcome the LPE issue, we propose the virtual field optimization method (VFOM) for locating single-point sources. In contrast to existing approaches, the VFOM optimizes a continuous and virtually established objective function to search the space for the common intersection of the hyperboloids, which is determined by sensor pairs other than the least residual between the model-calculated and measured arrivals. The results of numerical examples and in-site blasts show that the VFOM can obtain more precise and stable solutions than traditional methods when the input data contain LPEs. Furthermore, we discuss the impact of LPEs on objective functions to determine the LPE-tolerant mechanism, velocity sensitivity and stopping criteria of the VFOM. The proposed method is also capable of locating acoustic sources using passive techniques such as passive sonar detection and acoustic emission.

  16. Novel criteria for exponential synchronization of inner time-varying complex networks with coupling delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Qun-Jiao; Zhao Jun-Chan

    2012-01-01

    This paper mainly investigates the exponential synchronization of an inner time-varying complex network with coupling delay. Firstly, the synchronization of complex networks is decoupled into the stability of the corresponding dynamical systems. Based on the Lyapunov function theory, some sufficient conditions to guarantee its stability with any given convergence rate are derived, thus the synchronization of the networks is achieved. Finally, the results are illustrated by a simple time-varying network model with a coupling delay. All involved numerical simulations verify the correctness of the theoretical analysis. (general)

  17. Improved arrival-date estimates of Arctic-breeding Dunlin (Calidris alpina arcticola)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doll, Andrew C.; Lanctot, Richard B.; Stricker, Craig A.; Yezerinac, Stephen M.; Wunder, Michael B.

    2015-01-01

    The use of stable isotopes in animal ecology depends on accurate descriptions of isotope dynamics within individuals. The prevailing assumption that laboratory-derived isotopic parameters apply to free-living animals is largely untested. We used stable carbon isotopes (δ13C) in whole blood from migratory Dunlin (Calidris alpina arcticola) to estimate an in situ turnover rate and individual diet-switch dates. Our in situ results indicated that turnover rates were higher in free-living birds, in comparison to the results of an experimental study on captive Dunlin and estimates derived from a theoretical allometric model. Diet-switch dates from all 3 methods were then used to estimate arrival dates to the Arctic; arrival dates calculated with the in situ turnover rate were later than those with the other turnover-rate estimates, substantially so in some cases. These later arrival dates matched dates when local snow conditions would have allowed Dunlin to settle, and agreed with anticipated arrival dates of Dunlin tracked with light-level geolocators. Our study presents a novel method for accurately estimating arrival dates for individuals of migratory species in which return dates are difficult to document. This may be particularly appropriate for species in which extrinsic tracking devices cannot easily be employed because of cost, body size, or behavioral constraints, and in habitats that do not allow individuals to be detected easily upon first arrival. Thus, this isotopic method offers an exciting alternative approach to better understand how species may be altering their arrival dates in response to changing climatic conditions.

  18. Predicting how altering propagule pressure changes establishment rates of biological invaders across species pools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockerhoff, Eckehard G; Kimberley, Mark; Liebhold, Andrew M; Haack, Robert A; Cavey, Joseph F

    2014-03-01

    Biological invasions resulting from international trade can cause major environmental and economic impacts. Propagule pressure is perhaps the most important factor influencing establishment, although actual arrival rates of species are rarely recorded. Furthermore, the pool of potential invaders includes many species that vary in their arrival rate and establishment potential. Therefore, we stress that it is essential to consider the size and composition of species pools arriving from source regions when estimating probabilities of establishment and effects of pathway infestation rates. To address this, we developed a novel framework and modeling approach to enable prediction of future establishments in relation to changes in arrival rate across entire species pools. We utilized 13 828 border interception records from the United States and New Zealand for 444 true bark beetle (Scolytinae) and longhorned beetle (Cerambycidae) species detected between 1949 and 2008 as proxies for arrival rates to model the relationship between arrival and establishment rates. Nonlinearity in this relationship implies that measures intended to reduce the unintended transport of potential invaders (such as phytosanitary treatments) must be highly effective in order to substantially reduce the rate of future invasions, particularly if trade volumes continue to increase.

  19. Controller Strategies for Automation Tool Use under Varying Levels of Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morey, Susan; Prevot, Thomas; Mercer, Joey; Martin, Lynne; Bienert, Nancy; Cabrall, Christopher; Hunt, Sarah; Homola, Jeffrey; Kraut, Joshua

    2013-01-01

    A human-in-the-loop simulation was conducted to examine the effects of varying levels of trajectory prediction uncertainty on air traffic controller workload and performance, as well as how strategies and the use of decision support tools change in response. This paper focuses on the strategies employed by two controllers from separate teams who worked in parallel but independently under identical conditions (airspace, arrival traffic, tools) with the goal of ensuring schedule conformance and safe separation for a dense arrival flow in en route airspace. Despite differences in strategy and methods, both controllers achieved high levels of schedule conformance and safe separation. Overall, results show that trajectory uncertainties introduced by wind and aircraft performance prediction errors do not affect the controllers' ability to manage traffic. Controller strategies were fairly robust to changes in error, though strategies were affected by the amount of delay to absorb (scheduled time of arrival minus estimated time of arrival). Using the results and observations, this paper proposes an ability to dynamically customize the display of information including delay time based on observed error to better accommodate different strategies and objectives.

  20. Experimental evidence for amplitude death induced by a time-varying interaction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suresh, K. [Centre for Nonlinear Dynamics, School of Physics, Bharathidasan University, Tiruchirappalli 620024, Tamil Nadu (India); Shrimali, M.D. [Department of Physics, Central University of Rajasthan, NH-8, Bandar Sindri, Ajmer 305 801 (India); Prasad, Awadhesh [Department of Physics and Astrophysics, University of Delhi, Delhi 110 007 (India); Thamilmaran, K., E-mail: maran.cnld@gmail.com [Centre for Nonlinear Dynamics, School of Physics, Bharathidasan University, Tiruchirappalli 620024, Tamil Nadu (India)

    2014-08-01

    In this paper, we study the time-varying interaction in coupled oscillatory systems. For this purpose, we have designed a novel time-varying resistive network using an analog switch and inverter circuits. We have applied this time-varying resistive network to mutually coupled identical Chua's oscillators. When the resistances are varied in time, we find that amplitude death arises in coupled identical oscillators. This has been observed numerically as well as verified through hardware experiments. - Highlights: • We have implemented the time-varying interaction in coupled oscillatory systems. • We have designed a novel time-varying resistive network using an analog switch and inverter circuits. • When the resistances are varied in time, we find that amplitude death arises in coupled identical oscillators.

  1. Effective Acceleration Model for the Arrival Time of Interplanetary Shocks driven by Coronal Mass Ejections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paouris, Evangelos; Mavromichalaki, Helen

    2017-12-01

    In a previous work (Paouris and Mavromichalaki in Solar Phys. 292, 30, 2017), we presented a total of 266 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) with as much information as possible. We developed a new empirical model for estimating the acceleration of these events in the interplanetary medium from this analysis. In this work, we present a new approach on the effective acceleration model (EAM) for predicting the arrival time of the shock that preceds a CME, using data of a total of 214 ICMEs. For the first time, the projection effects of the linear speed of CMEs are taken into account in this empirical model, which significantly improves the prediction of the arrival time of the shock. In particular, the mean value of the time difference between the observed time of the shock and the predicted time was equal to +3.03 hours with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 18.58 hours and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 22.47 hours. After the improvement of this model, the mean value of the time difference is decreased to -0.28 hours with an MAE of 17.65 hours and an RMSE of 21.55 hours. This improved version was applied to a set of three recent Earth-directed CMEs reported in May, June, and July of 2017, and we compare our results with the values predicted by other related models.

  2. Quasi-Birth-and-Death Processes with Rational Arrival Process Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bean, Nigel G.; Nielsen, Bo Friis

    to develop an analytic method for such a process, that parallels the analysis of a traditional QBD. We demonstrate the analysis by considering a queue where the arrival process and the sequence of service times are derived from two different RAPs that are not just Markovian Arrival processes. We also...... introduce an element of correlation between the arrival process and the sequence of service times.......In this paper we introduce the concept of a Quasi-Birth-and-Death process (QBD) with Rational Arrival Process components. We use the physical interpretation of a Rational Arrival Process (RAP), developed by Asmussen and Bladt, to consider such a Markov process. We exploit this interpretation...

  3. Analysis of time-varying psoriasis lesion image patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maletti, Gabriela Mariel; Ersbøll, Bjarne Kjær; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    2004-01-01

    The multivariate alteration detection transform is applied to pairs of within and between time varying registered psoriasis image patterns. Color band contribution to the variates explaining maximal change is analyzed.......The multivariate alteration detection transform is applied to pairs of within and between time varying registered psoriasis image patterns. Color band contribution to the variates explaining maximal change is analyzed....

  4. Robust convergence of Cohen-Grossberg neural networks with time-varying delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiong Wenjun; Ma Deyi; Liang Jinling

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, robust convergence is studied for the Cohen-Grossberg neural networks (CGNNs) with time-varying delays. By applying the differential inequality and the Lyapunov method, some delay-independent conditions are derived ensuring the robust CGNNs to converge, globally, uniformly and exponentially, to a ball in the state space with a pre-specified convergence rate. Finally, the effectiveness of our results are verified by an illustrative example.

  5. Specification and testing of Multiplicative Time-Varying GARCH models with applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we develop a specification technique for building multiplicative time-varying GARCH models of Amado and Teräsvirta (2008, 2013). The variance is decomposed into an unconditional and a conditional component such that the unconditional variance component is allowed to evolve smooth...... is illustrated in practice with two real examples: an empirical application to daily exchange rate returns and another one to daily coffee futures returns....

  6. Aggregation, Heterogeneous Autoregression and Volatility of Daily International Tourist Arrivals and Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Chia-Lin Chang; Michael McAleer

    2010-01-01

    textabstractTourism is a major source of service receipts for many countries, including Taiwan. The two leading tourism countries for Taiwan, comprising a high proportion of world tourist arrivals to Taiwan, are Japan and USA, which are sources of short and long haul tourism, respectively. As it is well known that a strong domestic currency can have adverse effects on international tourist arrivals, daily data from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2008 are used to model the world price and US$ /...

  7. Finite-time stability of neutral-type neural networks with random time-varying delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, M. Syed; Saravanan, S.; Zhu, Quanxin

    2017-11-01

    This paper is devoted to the finite-time stability analysis of neutral-type neural networks with random time-varying delays. The randomly time-varying delays are characterised by Bernoulli stochastic variable. This result can be extended to analysis and design for neutral-type neural networks with random time-varying delays. On the basis of this paper, we constructed suitable Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional together and established a set of sufficient linear matrix inequalities approach to guarantee the finite-time stability of the system concerned. By employing the Jensen's inequality, free-weighting matrix method and Wirtinger's double integral inequality, the proposed conditions are derived and two numerical examples are addressed for the effectiveness of the developed techniques.

  8. An ESS treatment of the pattern of female arrival at the mating site in the yellow dung fly scathophaga stercoraria (L.)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reuter; Ward; Blanckenhorn

    1998-12-07

    In most previous work on the yellow dung fly Scathophaga stercoraria (L.), as on other species, adaptive explanations have been sought for male behaviour whereas female behaviour has not been examined in similar detail. Here, the arrival of females at the mating site, fresh cattle droppings, is investigated. While almost all males are present shortly after pat deposition females arrive at a low, decreasing rate over an interval of about 5 hours. We propose that the distribution of female arrival times represents a mixed Evolutionarily Stable Strategy (ESS), formed by different trade-offs between costs and benefits of early and late arrival. Early arrival could be favoured by advantages due to better conditions for oviposition, faster egg development of reduced larval competition. Late arrival could be favoured by negative effects on females of male-male competition being weaker later after deposition. Computer simulations with distributions of arrival times deviating from the natural one were performed to "measure" the costs for females arriving at different times. These costs were compared with estimated benefits corresponding to the females' arrival times. This procedure revealed that females coming to the pat later in a population of females arriving shortly after deposition would be favoured. In a population arriving according to a uniform distribution, early females would have fitness advantages. Thus, evolution should lead to an intermediate distribution of arrival times, as in nature, i.e. female arrival behaviour is probably adaptive. The simulations also revealed that the intensity of sexual selection though male-male competition is highest with the natural pattern of female arrival. Therefore, natural selection generating this pattern amplifies the intensity of male-male interaction as a by-product. Copyright 1998 Academic Press

  9. Relationship between coronal holes and high speed streams at L1: arrival times, durations, and intensities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, B.; Bu, X.; Liu, S.; Gong, J.

    2017-12-01

    Coronal holes are sources of high-speed steams (HSS) of solar wind. When coronal holes appear at mid/low latitudes on the Sun, consequential HSSs may impact Earth and cause recurrent geospace environment disturbances, such as geomagnetic storms, relativistic electron enhancements at the geosynchronous orbit, and thermosphere density enhancements. Thus, it is of interests for space weather forecasters to predict when (arrival times), how long (time durations), and how severe (intensities) HSSs may impact Earth when they notice coronal holes on the sun and are anticipating their geoeffectiveness. In this study, relationship between coronal holes and high speed streams will be statistically investigated. Several coronal hole parameters, including passage times of solar central meridian, coronal hole longitudinal widths, intensities reflected by mean brightness, are derived using Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) images for years 2011 to 2016. These parameters will be correlated with in-situ solar wind measurements measured at the L1 point by the ACE spacecraft, which can give some results that are useful for space weather forecaster in predicting the arrival times, durations, and intensities of coronal hole high-speed streams in about 3 days advance.

  10. Relay selection in cooperative communication systems over continuous time-varying fading channel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke Geng

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we study relay selection under outdated channel state information (CSI in a decode-and-forward (DF cooperative system. Unlike previous researches on cooperative communication under outdated CSI, we consider that the channel varies continuously over time, i.e., the channel not only changes between relay selection and data transmission but also changes during data transmission. Thus the level of accuracy of the CSI used in relay selection degrades with data transmission. We first evaluate the packet error rate (PER of the cooperative system under continuous time-varying fading channel, and find that the PER performance deteriorates more seriously under continuous time-varying fading channel than when the channel is assumed to be constant during data transmission. Then, we propose a repeated relay selection (RRS strategy to improve the PER performance, in which the forwarded data is divided into multiple segments and relay is reselected before the transmission of each segment based on the updated CSI. Finally, we propose a combined relay selection (CRS strategy which takes advantage of three different relay selection strategies to further mitigate the impact of outdated CSI.

  11. Estimation of time-varying pollutant emission rates in a ventilated enclosure: inversion of a reduced model obtained by experimental application of the modal identification method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Girault, M; Maillet, D; Bonthoux, F; Galland, B; Martin, P; Braconnier, R; Fontaine, J R

    2008-01-01

    A method is proposed for the estimation of time-varying emission rates of pollutant sources in a ventilated enclosure, through the resolution of an inverse forced convection problem. Unsteady transport–diffusion of the pollutant is considered, with the assumption of a stationary velocity field remaining unchanged during emission (passive contaminant). The pollutant transport equation is therefore linear with respect to concentration. The source's location is also supposed to be known. As the first step, a reduced model (RM) linking concentrations at a set of control points to emission rates of sources is identified from experimental data by using the modal identification method (MIM). This parameter estimation problem uses transient contaminant concentration measurements made at control points inside the ventilated enclosure, corresponding to increasing and decreasing steps of emission rates. Such experimental modelling allows us to avoid dealing with a CFD code involving turbulence modelling and to get rid of uncertainties about sensors position. In a second step, the identified RM is used to solve an inverse forced convection problem: from contaminant concentration measured at the same control points, rates of sources emitting simultaneously are estimated with a sequential in time algorithm using future time steps

  12. Local inertial oscillations in the surface ocean generated by time-varying winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shengli; Polton, Jeff A.; Hu, Jianyu; Xing, Jiuxing

    2015-12-01

    A new relationship is presented to give a review study on the evolution of inertial oscillations in the surface ocean locally generated by time-varying wind stress. The inertial oscillation is expressed as the superposition of a previous oscillation and a newly generated oscillation, which depends upon the time-varying wind stress. This relationship is employed to investigate some idealized wind change events. For a wind series varying temporally with different rates, the induced inertial oscillation is dominated by the wind with the greatest variation. The resonant wind, which rotates anti-cyclonically at the local inertial frequency with time, produces maximal amplitude of inertial oscillations, which grows monotonically. For the wind rotating at non-inertial frequencies, the responses vary periodically, with wind injecting inertial energy when it is in phase with the currents, but removing inertial energy when it is out of phase. The wind rotating anti-cyclonically with time is much more favorable to generate inertial oscillations than the cyclonic rotating wind. The wind with a frequency closer to the inertial frequency generates stronger inertial oscillations. For a diurnal wind, the induced inertial oscillation is dependent on latitude and is most significant at 30 °. This relationship is also applied to examine idealized moving cyclones. The inertial oscillation is much stronger on the right-hand side of the cyclone path than on the left-hand side (in the northern hemisphere). This is due to the wind being anti-cyclonic with time on the right-hand side, but cyclonic on the other side. The inertial oscillation varies with the cyclone translation speed. The optimal translation speed generating the greatest inertial oscillations is 2 m/s at the latitude of 10 ° and gradually increases to 6 m/s at the latitude of 30 °.

  13. Should Unemployment Insurance Vary with the Unemployment Rate? Theory and Evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Kroft, Kory; Notowidigdo, Matthew J.

    2012-01-01

    We study how optimal unemployment insurance (UI) benefits vary over the business cycle by estimating how the moral hazard cost and the consumption smoothing benefit of UI vary with the unemployment rate. We find that the moral hazard cost is procyclical, greater when the unemployment rate is relatively low. By contrast, our evidence suggests that the consumption smoothing benefit of UI is acyclical. Using these estimates to calibrate our job search model, we find that a one standard deviation...

  14. Multivariate time-varying volatility modeling using probabilistic fuzzy systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Basturk, N.; Almeida, R.J.; Golan, R.; Kaymak, U.

    2016-01-01

    Methods to accurately analyze financial risk have drawn considerable attention in financial institutions. One difficulty in financial risk analysis is the fact that banks and other financial institutions invest in several assets which show time-varying volatilities and hence time-varying financial

  15. Long memory of financial time series and hidden Markov models with time-varying parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

    Hidden Markov models are often used to capture stylized facts of daily returns and to infer the hidden state of financial markets. Previous studies have found that the estimated models change over time, but the implications of the time-varying behavior for the ability to reproduce the stylized...... facts have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive estimation approach that allows for the parameters of the estimated models to be time-varying. It is shown that a two-state Gaussian hidden Markov model with time-varying parameters is able to reproduce the long memory of squared...... daily returns that was previously believed to be the most difficult fact to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time-varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one-step predictions....

  16. Novel criteria for global exponential periodicity and stability of recurrent neural networks with time-varying delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song Qiankun

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, the global exponential periodicity and stability of recurrent neural networks with time-varying delays are investigated by applying the idea of vector Lyapunov function, M-matrix theory and inequality technique. We assume neither the global Lipschitz conditions on these activation functions nor the differentiability on these time-varying delays, which were needed in other papers. Several novel criteria are found to ascertain the existence, uniqueness and global exponential stability of periodic solution for recurrent neural network with time-varying delays. Moreover, the exponential convergence rate index is estimated, which depends on the system parameters. Some previous results are improved and generalized, and an example is given to show the effectiveness of our method

  17. Setting wait times to achieve targeted left-without-being-seen rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, Jared; Batt, Robert J; Soremekun, Olanrewaju A

    2014-04-01

    Although several studies have demonstrated that wait time is a key factor that drives high leave-without-being-seen (LWBS) rates, limited data on ideal wait times and impact on LWBS rates exist. We studied the LWBS rates by triage class and target wait times required to achieve various LWBS rates. We conducted a 3-year retrospective analysis of patients presenting to an urban, tertiary, academic, adult emergency department (ED). We divided the 3-year study period into 504 discrete periods by year, day of the week, and hour of the day. Patients of same triage level arriving in the same bin were exposed to similar ED conditions. For each bin, we calculate the mean actual wait time and the proportion of patients that abandoned. We performed a regression analysis on the abandonment proportion on the mean wait time using weighted least squares regression. A total of 143,698 patients were included for analysis during the study period. The R(2) value was highest for Emergency Severity Index (ESI) 3 (R(2) = 0.88), suggesting that wait time is the major factor driving LWBS of ESI 3 patients. Assuming that ESI 2 patients wait less than 10 minutes, our sensitivity analysis shows that the target wait times for ESI 3 and ESI 4/5 patients should be less than 45 and 60 minutes, respectively, to achieve an overall LWBS rate of less than 2%. Achieving target LWBS rates requires analysis to understand the abandonment behavior and redesigning operations to achieve the target wait times. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Arrival first queueing networks with applications in kanban production systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boucherie, R.J.; Chao, X.; Miyazawa, M.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we introduce a new class of queueing networks called {\\it arrival first networks}. We characterise its transition rates and derive the relationship between arrival rules, linear partial balance equations, and product form stationary distributions. This model is motivated by production

  19. Arrival first queueing networks with applications in kanban production systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boucherie, Richardus J.; Chao, X.; Miyazawa, M.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a new class of queueing networks called arrival first networks. We characterise its transition rates and derive the relationship between arrival rules, linear partial balance equations, and product form stationary distributions. This model is motivated by production

  20. Time variation in European carbon pass-through rates in electricity futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huisman, Ronald; Kiliç, Mehtap

    2015-01-01

    The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme is a means to price emission allowances. Electricity market prices should reflect these market prices of emission allowances as they are a cost factor for power producers. The pass-through rate is the fraction of the emission allowance price that is passed through to electricity market prices. It is often measured and presented as an average or a fixed estimate over some time period. However, we expect that the pass-through rates should actually vary over time as electricity supply curves reflect the marginal costs of different producers that differ in emission intensity. We apply a Kalman Filter approach to observe pass-through rates in Germany and U.K. and find strong support for time varying instead of fixed pass-through rates. Although policy makers are interested in the impact of a policy on average, our results indicate that one needs to be careful with the time-frame over which pass-through rates are measured for policy evaluation, as an incorrect chosen evaluation period could cause an under- or overestimation of the pass-through rate. In addition, our model helps to provide policy makers with insight in the development of pass-through rates when market circumstances change with respect to power production. - Highlights: • We analyse the time-variation of the emission pass-through rate in power prices. • We examine historical futures prices for Germany and the U.K. • We test the hypothesis by using the Kalman Filter methodology. • Strong support is found that pass-through rates vary over time. • The chosen time-frame for pass-through rates is important for policy evaluation.

  1. Analysing passenger arrivals rates and waiting time at bus stops

    OpenAIRE

    Kaparias, I.; Rossetti, C.; Trozzi, V.

    2015-01-01

    The present study investigates the rather under-explored topic of passenger waiting times at public transport facilities. Using data collected from part of London’s bus network by means of physical counts, measurements and observations, and complemented by on-site passenger interviews, the waiting behaviour is analysed for a number of bus stops served by different numbers of lines. The analysis employs a wide range of statistical methods and tools, and concentrates on three aspects: passenger...

  2. Order of arrival affects competition in two reef fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geange, Shane W; Stier, Adrian C

    2009-10-01

    Many communities experience repeated periods of colonization due to seasonally regenerating habitats or pulsed arrival of young-of-year. When an individual's persistence in a community depends upon the strength of competitive interactions, changes in the timing of arrival relative to the arrival of a competitor can modify competitive strength and, ultimately, establishment in the community. We investigated whether the strength of intracohort competitive interactions between recent settlers of the reef fishes Thalassoma hardwicke and T. quinquevittatum are dependent on the sequence and temporal separation of their arrival into communities. To achieve this, we manipulated the sequence and timing of arrival of each species onto experimental patch reefs by simulating settlement pulses and monitoring survival and aggressive interactions. Both species survived best in the absence of competitors, but when competitors were present, they did best when they arrived at the same time. Survival declined as each species entered the community progressively later than its competitor and as aggression by its competitor increased. Intraspecific effects of resident T. hardwicke were similar to interspecific effects. This study shows that the strength of competition depends not only on the identity of competitors, but also on the sequence and timing of their interactions, suggesting that when examining interaction strengths, it is important to identify temporal variability in the direction and magnitude of their effects. Furthermore, our findings provide empirical evidence for the importance of competitive lotteries in the maintenance of species diversity in demographically open marine systems.

  3. Stability of Nonlinear Systems with Unknown Time-varying Feedback Delay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chunodkar, Apurva A.; Akella, Maruthi R.

    2013-12-01

    This paper considers the problem of stabilizing a class of nonlinear systems with unknown bounded delayed feedback wherein the time-varying delay is 1) piecewise constant 2) continuous with a bounded rate. We also consider application of these results to the stabilization of rigid-body attitude dynamics. In the first case, the time-delay in feedback is modeled specifically as a switch among an arbitrarily large set of unknown constant values with a known strict upper bound. The feedback is a linear function of the delayed states. In the case of linear systems with switched delay feedback, a new sufficiency condition for average dwell time result is presented using a complete type Lyapunov-Krasovskii (L-K) functional approach. Further, the corresponding switched system with nonlinear perturbations is proven to be exponentially stable inside a well characterized region of attraction for an appropriately chosen average dwell time. In the second case, the concept of the complete type L-K functional is extended to a class of nonlinear time-delay systems with unknown time-varying time-delay. This extension ensures stability robustness to time-delay in the control design for all values of time-delay less than the known upper bound. Model-transformation is used in order to partition the nonlinear system into a nominal linear part that is exponentially stable with a bounded perturbation. We obtain sufficient conditions which ensure exponential stability inside a region of attraction estimate. A constructive method to evaluate the sufficient conditions is presented together with comparison with the corresponding constant and piecewise constant delay. Numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the theoretical results of this paper.

  4. Overcoming Spurious Regression Using time-Varying Fourier ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Non-stationary time series data have been traditionally analyzed in the frequency domain by assuming constant amplitudes regardless of the timelag. A new approach called time-varying amplitude method (TVAM) is presented here. Oscillations are analyzed for changes in the magnitude of Fourier Coefficients which are ...

  5. Vesicle biomechanics in a time-varying magnetic field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Hui; Curcuru, Austen

    2015-01-01

    Cells exhibit distortion when exposed to a strong electric field, suggesting that the field imposes control over cellular biomechanics. Closed pure lipid bilayer membranes (vesicles) have been widely used for the experimental and theoretical studies of cellular biomechanics under this electrodeformation. An alternative method used to generate an electric field is by electromagnetic induction with a time-varying magnetic field. References reporting the magnetic control of cellular mechanics have recently emerged. However, theoretical analysis of the cellular mechanics under a time-varying magnetic field is inadequate. We developed an analytical theory to investigate the biomechanics of a modeled vesicle under a time-varying magnetic field. Following previous publications and to simplify the calculation, this model treated the inner and suspending media as lossy dielectrics, the membrane thickness set at zero, and the electric resistance of the membrane assumed to be negligible. This work provided the first analytical solutions for the surface charges, electric field, radial pressure, overall translational forces, and rotational torques introduced on a vesicle by the time-varying magnetic field. Frequency responses of these measures were analyzed, particularly the frequency used clinically by transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS). The induced surface charges interacted with the electric field to produce a biomechanical impact upon the vesicle. The distribution of the induced surface charges depended on the orientation of the coil and field frequency. The densities of these charges were trivial at low frequency ranges, but significant at high frequency ranges. The direction of the radial force on the vesicle was dependent on the conductivity ratio between the vesicle and the medium. At relatively low frequencies (biomechanics under a time-varying magnetic field. Biological effects of clinical TMS are not likely to occur via alteration of the biomechanics of brain

  6. Stability in Cohen Grossberg-type bidirectional associative memory neural networks with time-varying delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Jinde; Song, Qiankun

    2006-07-01

    In this paper, the exponential stability problem is investigated for a class of Cohen-Grossberg-type bidirectional associative memory neural networks with time-varying delays. By using the analysis method, inequality technique and the properties of an M-matrix, several novel sufficient conditions ensuring the existence, uniqueness and global exponential stability of the equilibrium point are derived. Moreover, the exponential convergence rate is estimated. The obtained results are less restrictive than those given in the earlier literature, and the boundedness and differentiability of the activation functions and differentiability of the time-varying delays are removed. Two examples with their simulations are given to show the effectiveness of the obtained results.

  7. Longitudinal development of air-shower electrons studied from the arrival time distributions of atmospheric Cerenkov light measured at 5200 m above sea level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inoue, N.; Kaneko, T.; Yoshii, H.

    1985-01-01

    The longitudinal development of electrons in extensive air showers before the maximum has been studied by measuring the arrival time distributions of atmospheric Cerenkov light from air showers, with primary energies in the range 6 x 10 15 to 2 x 10 17 eV, in the Chacaltaya air-shower array. These arrival time distributions are consistent with those calculated using a model of particle interactions which contain Feynman scaling in the fragmentation region, an Esup(1/2) multiplicity law in the pionisation region and a rising cross section for primary protons. Such a model also reproduces the arrival time distributions of Cerenkov light measured in the Akeno air-shower array as described in the preceding paper, which implies a very fast development before the maximum and a slow development after the maximum. (author)

  8. Modelling Time-Varying Volatility in Financial Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Laakkonen, Helinä

    2014-01-01

    The “unusually uncertain” phase in the global financial markets has inspired many researchers to study the effects of ambiguity (or “Knightian uncertainty”) on the decisions made by investors and their implications for the capital markets. We contribute to this literature by using a modified...... version of the time-varying GARCH model of Amado and Teräsvirta (2013) to analyze whether the increasing uncertainty has caused excess volatility in the US and European government bond markets. In our model, volatility is multiplicatively decomposed into two time-varying conditional components: the first...... being captured by a stable GARCH(1,1) process and the second driven by the level of uncertainty in the financial market....

  9. Identification of time-varying nonlinear systems using differential evolution algorithm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perisic, Nevena; Green, Peter L; Worden, Keith

    2013-01-01

    (DE) algorithm for the identification of time-varying systems. DE is an evolutionary optimisation method developed to perform direct search in a continuous space without requiring any derivative estimation. DE is modified so that the objective function changes with time to account for the continuing......, thus identification of time-varying systems with nonlinearities can be a very challenging task. In order to avoid conventional least squares and gradient identification methods which require uni-modal and double differentiable objective functions, this work proposes a modified differential evolution...... inclusion of new data within an error metric. This paper presents results of identification of a time-varying SDOF system with Coulomb friction using simulated noise-free and noisy data for the case of time-varying friction coefficient, stiffness and damping. The obtained results are promising and the focus...

  10. Time delay estimation in a reverberant environment by low rate sampling of impulsive acoustic sources

    KAUST Repository

    Omer, Muhammad

    2012-07-01

    This paper presents a new method of time delay estimation (TDE) using low sample rates of an impulsive acoustic source in a room environment. The proposed method finds the time delay from the room impulse response (RIR) which makes it robust against room reverberations. The RIR is considered a sparse phenomenon and a recently proposed sparse signal reconstruction technique called orthogonal clustering (OC) is utilized for its estimation from the low rate sampled received signal. The arrival time of the direct path signal at a pair of microphones is identified from the estimated RIR and their difference yields the desired time delay. Low sampling rates reduce the hardware and computational complexity and decrease the communication between the microphones and the centralized location. The performance of the proposed technique is demonstrated by numerical simulations and experimental results. © 2012 IEEE.

  11. Application of Cyclostationary Signal Selectivity to the Carry-On Multi-Platform GPS Assisted Time Difference of Arrival System

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Streight, David

    1997-01-01

    .... The Applied Research Lab at the University of Texas at Austin (ARL:UT) has developed a prototype TDOA system, the Carry-on Multi-platform GPS Assisted Time Difference of Arrival System for the Naval Information Warfare Activity...

  12. Epidemic spread in coupled populations with seasonally varying migration rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzyczyn, Adam; Shaw, Leah B.

    2009-03-01

    The H5N1 strain of avian influenza has spread worldwide, and this spread may be due to seasonal migration of birds and mixing of birds from different regions in the wintering grounds. We studied a multipatch model for avian influenza with seasonally varying migration rates. The bird population was divided into two spatially distinct patches, or subpopulations. Within each patch, the disease followed the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model for epidemic spread. Migration rates were varied periodically, with a net flux toward the breeding grounds during the spring and towards the wintering grounds during the fall. The case of two symmetric patches reduced to single-patch SIR dynamics. However, asymmetry in the birth and contact rates in the breeding grounds and wintering grounds led to bifurcations to longer period orbits and chaotic dynamics. We studied the bifurcation structure of the model and the phase relationships between outbreaks in the two patches.

  13. Tsunami Arrival Detection with High Frequency (HF Radar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald Barrick

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative real-time observations of a tsunami have been limited to deep-water, pressure-sensor observations of changes in the sea surface elevation and observations of sea level fluctuations at the coast, which are essentially point measurements. Constrained by these data, models have been used for predictions and warning of the arrival of a tsunami, but to date no system exists for local detection of an actual incoming wave with a significant warning capability. Networks of coastal high frequency (HF-radars are now routinely observing surface currents in many countries. We report here on an empirical method for the detection of the initial arrival of a tsunami, and demonstrate its use with results from data measured by fourteen HF radar sites in Japan and USA following the magnitude 9.0 earthquake off Sendai, Japan, on 11 March 2011. The distance offshore at which the tsunami can be detected, and hence the warning time provided, depends on the bathymetry: the wider the shallow continental shelf, the greater this time. We compare arrival times at the radars with those measured by neighboring tide gauges. Arrival times measured by the radars preceded those at neighboring tide gauges by an average of 19 min (Japan and 15 min (USA The initial water-height increase due to the tsunami as measured by the tide gauges was moderate, ranging from 0.3 to 2 m. Thus it appears possible to detect even moderate tsunamis using this method. Larger tsunamis could obviously be detected further from the coast. We find that tsunami arrival within the radar coverage area can be announced 8 min (i.e., twice the radar spectral time resolution after its first appearance. This can provide advance warning of the tsunami approach to the coastline locations.

  14. Connecting speeds, directions and arrival times of 22 coronal mass ejections from the sun to 1 AU

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Möstl, C.; Veronig, A. M.; Rollett, T.; Temmer, M.; Peinhart, V. [Kanzelhöhe Observatory-IGAM, Institute of Physics, University of Graz (Austria); Amla, K.; Hall, J. R.; Liewer, P. C.; De Jong, E. M. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States); Colaninno, R. C. [Space Sciences Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC (United States); Davies, J. A.; Harrison, R. A. [RAL Space, Harwell Oxford, Didcot (United Kingdom); Lugaz, N.; Farrugia, C. J.; Galvin, A. B. [Space Science Center and Department of Physics, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH (United States); Liu, Y. D. [State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Luhmann, J. G. [Space Science Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Vršnak, B., E-mail: christian.moestl@uni-graz.at [Hvar Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy, University of Zagreb, Kačićeva 26, HR-10000, Zagreb (Croatia)

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting the in situ properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from remote images is expected to strongly enhance predictions of space weather and is of general interest for studying the interaction of CMEs with planetary environments. We study the feasibility of using a single heliospheric imager (HI) instrument, imaging the solar wind density from the Sun to 1 AU, for connecting remote images to in situ observations of CMEs. We compare the predictions of speed and arrival time for 22 CMEs (in 2008-2012) to the corresponding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) parameters at in situ observatories (STEREO PLASTIC/IMPACT, Wind SWE/MFI). The list consists of front- and backsided, slow and fast CMEs (up to 2700 km s{sup –1}). We track the CMEs to 34.9 ± 7.1 deg elongation from the Sun with J maps constructed using the SATPLOT tool, resulting in prediction lead times of –26.4 ± 15.3 hr. The geometrical models we use assume different CME front shapes (fixed-Φ, harmonic mean, self-similar expansion) and constant CME speed and direction. We find no significant superiority in the predictive capability of any of the three methods. The absolute difference between predicted and observed ICME arrival times is 8.1 ± 6.3 hr (rms value of 10.9 hr). Speeds are consistent to within 284 ± 288 km s{sup –1}. Empirical corrections to the predictions enhance their performance for the arrival times to 6.1 ± 5.0 hr (rms value of 7.9 hr), and for the speeds to 53 ± 50 km s{sup –1}. These results are important for Solar Orbiter and a space weather mission positioned away from the Sun-Earth line.

  15. Optimal control of M/M/1 two-phase queueing system with state-dependent arrival rate, server breakdowns, delayed repair, and N-policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Hanumantha; Kumar, Vasanta; Srinivasa Rao, T.; Srinivasa Kumar, B.

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we examine a two-stage queueing system where the arrivals are Poisson with rate depends on the condition of the server to be specific: vacation, pre-service, operational or breakdown state. The service station is liable to breakdowns and deferral in repair because of non-accessibility of the repair facility. The service is in two basic stages, the first being bulk service to every one of the customers holding up on the line and the second stage is individual to each of them. The server works under N-policy. The server needs preliminary time (startup time) to begin batch service after a vacation period. Startup times, uninterrupted service times, the length of each vacation period, delay times and service times follows an exponential distribution. The closed form of expressions for the mean system size at different conditions of the server is determined. Numerical investigations are directed to concentrate the impact of the system parameters on the ideal limit N and the minimum base expected unit cost.

  16. Simulated performance of an acoustic modem using phase-modulated signals in a time-varying, shallow-water environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerrum-Niese, Christian; Jensen, Leif Bjørnø

    1996-01-01

    and dynamic multipath channel. Multipath arrivals at the receiver cause phase distortion and fading of the signal envelope. Yet, for extreme ratios of range to depth, the delays of multipath arrivals decrease, and the channel impulse response coherently contributes energy to the signal at short delays......Underwater acoustic modems using coherent modulation, such as phase-shift keying, have proven to efficiently exploit the bandlimited underwater acoustical communication channel. However, the performance of an acoustic modem, given as maximum range and data and error rate, is limited in the complex...... relative to the first arrival, while longer delays give rise to intersymbol interference. Following this, the signal-to-multipath ratio (SMR) is introduced. It is claimed that the SMR determines the performance rather than the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Using a ray model including temporal variations...

  17. Arrival time distributions of electrons in air showers with primary energies above 10 (18)eV observed at 900m above sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakimoto, F.; Tsuchimoto, I.; Enoki, T.; Suga, K.; Nishi, K.

    1985-01-01

    Detection of air showers with primary energies above 10 to the 19th power eV with sufficient statistics is extremely important in an astrophysical aspect related to the Greisen cut off and the origin of such high energy cosmic rays. Recently, a method is proposed to observe such giant air showers by measuring the arrival time distributions of air-shower particles at large core distances with a mini array. Experiments to measure the arrival time distributions of muons were started in 1981 and those of electrons in early 1983 in the Akeno air-shower array (930 gcm cm squared atmospheric depth, 900m above sea level). During the time of observation, the detection area of the Akeno array was expanded from 1 sq km to sq km in 1982 and to 20 sq km in 1984. Now the arrival time distribution of electrons and muons can be measured for showers with primary energies above 1019eV at large core distances.

  18. Time-varying linear control for tiltrotor aircraft

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing ZHANG

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Tiltrotor aircraft have three flight modes: helicopter mode, airplane mode, and transition mode. A tiltrotor has characteristics of highly nonlinear, time-varying flight dynamics and inertial/control couplings in its transition mode. It can transit from the helicopter mode to the airplane mode by tilting its nacelles, and an effective controller is crucial to accomplish tilting transition missions. Longitudinal dynamic characteristics of the tiltrotor are described by a nonlinear Lagrange-form model, which takes into account inertial/control couplings and aerodynamic interferences. Reference commands for airspeed velocity and attitude in the transition mode are calculated dynamically by visiting a command library which is founded in advance by analyzing the flight envelope of the tiltrotor. A Time-Varying Linear (TVL model is obtained using a Taylor-expansion based online linearization technique from the nonlinear model. Subsequently, based on an optimal control concept, an online optimization based control method with input constraints considered is proposed. To validate the proposed control method, three typical tilting transition missions are simulated using the nonlinear model of XV-15 tiltrotor aircraft. Simulation results show that the controller can be used to control the tiltrotor throughout its operating envelop which includes a transition flight, and can also deal with vertical gust disturbances. Keywords: Constrained optimal control, Inertia/control couplings, Tiltrotor aircraft, Time-varying control, Transition mode

  19. Identification of Time-Varying Pilot Control Behavior in Multi-Axis Control Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaal, Peter M. T.; Sweet, Barbara T.

    2012-01-01

    Recent developments in fly-by-wire control architectures for rotorcraft have introduced new interest in the identification of time-varying pilot control behavior in multi-axis control tasks. In this paper a maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate the parameters of a pilot model with time-dependent sigmoid functions to characterize time-varying human control behavior. An experiment was performed by 9 general aviation pilots who had to perform a simultaneous roll and pitch control task with time-varying aircraft dynamics. In 8 different conditions, the axis containing the time-varying dynamics and the growth factor of the dynamics were varied, allowing for an analysis of the performance of the estimation method when estimating time-dependent parameter functions. In addition, a detailed analysis of pilots adaptation to the time-varying aircraft dynamics in both the roll and pitch axes could be performed. Pilot control behavior in both axes was significantly affected by the time-varying aircraft dynamics in roll and pitch, and by the growth factor. The main effect was found in the axis that contained the time-varying dynamics. However, pilot control behavior also changed over time in the axis not containing the time-varying aircraft dynamics. This indicates that some cross coupling exists in the perception and control processes between the roll and pitch axes.

  20. Scaling properties in time-varying networks with memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyewon; Ha, Meesoon; Jeong, Hawoong

    2015-12-01

    The formation of network structure is mainly influenced by an individual node's activity and its memory, where activity can usually be interpreted as the individual inherent property and memory can be represented by the interaction strength between nodes. In our study, we define the activity through the appearance pattern in the time-aggregated network representation, and quantify the memory through the contact pattern of empirical temporal networks. To address the role of activity and memory in epidemics on time-varying networks, we propose temporal-pattern coarsening of activity-driven growing networks with memory. In particular, we focus on the relation between time-scale coarsening and spreading dynamics in the context of dynamic scaling and finite-size scaling. Finally, we discuss the universality issue of spreading dynamics on time-varying networks for various memory-causality tests.

  1. Testing for time-varying loadings in dynamic factor models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Jakob Guldbæk

    Abstract: In this paper we develop a test for time-varying factor loadings in factor models. The test is simple to compute and is constructed from estimated factors and residuals using the principal components estimator. The hypothesis is tested by regressing the squared residuals on the squared...... there is evidence of time-varying loadings on the risk factors underlying portfolio returns for around 80% of the portfolios....

  2. IEEE 802.15.4 ZigBee-Based Time-of-Arrival Estimation for Wireless Sensor Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheon, Jeonghyeon; Hwang, Hyunsu; Kim, Dongsun; Jung, Yunho

    2016-02-05

    Precise time-of-arrival (TOA) estimation is one of the most important techniques in RF-based positioning systems that use wireless sensor networks (WSNs). Because the accuracy of TOA estimation is proportional to the RF signal bandwidth, using broad bandwidth is the most fundamental approach for achieving higher accuracy. Hence, ultra-wide-band (UWB) systems with a bandwidth of 500 MHz are commonly used. However, wireless systems with broad bandwidth suffer from the disadvantages of high complexity and high power consumption. Therefore, it is difficult to employ such systems in various WSN applications. In this paper, we present a precise time-of-arrival (TOA) estimation algorithm using an IEEE 802.15.4 ZigBee system with a narrow bandwidth of 2 MHz. In order to overcome the lack of bandwidth, the proposed algorithm estimates the fractional TOA within the sampling interval. Simulation results show that the proposed TOA estimation algorithm provides an accuracy of 0.5 m at a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of 8 dB and achieves an SNR gain of 5 dB as compared with the existing algorithm. In addition, experimental results indicate that the proposed algorithm provides accurate TOA estimation in a real indoor environment.

  3. Time-Varying Periodicity in Intraday Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Gustav; Thyrsgaard, Martin; Todorov, Viktor

    We develop a nonparametric test for deciding whether return volatility exhibits time-varying intraday periodicity using a long time-series of high-frequency data. Our null hypothesis, commonly adopted in work on volatility modeling, is that volatility follows a stationary process combined...... with a constant time-of-day periodic component. We first construct time-of-day volatility estimates and studentize the high-frequency returns with these periodic components. If the intraday volatility periodicity is invariant over time, then the distribution of the studentized returns should be identical across...... with estimating volatility moments through their sample counterparts. Critical values are computed via easy-to-implement simulation. In an empirical application to S&P 500 index returns, we find strong evidence for variation in the intraday volatility pattern driven in part by the current level of volatility...

  4. Overview of contaminant arrival distributions as general evaluation requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1977-01-01

    The environmental consequences of subsurface contamination problems can be completely and effectively evaluated by fulfilling the following five requirements: Determine each present or future outflow boundary of contaminated groundwater; provide the location/arrival-time distributions; provide the location/outflow-quantity distributions; provide these distributions for each individual chemical or biological constituent of environmental importance; and use the arrival distributions to determine the quantity and concentration of each contaminant that will interface with the environment as time passes. The arrival distributions on which these requirements are based provide a reference point for communication among scientists and public decision makers by enabling complicated scientific analyses to be presented as simple summary relationships

  5. Propagation of a laser beam in a time-varying waveguide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, J.M.; Kevorkian, J.

    1978-01-01

    The propagation of an axisymmetric laser beam in a plasma column having a radially parabolic electron density distribution is examined. First, an extended paraxial procedure is developed for the case of an axially uniform waveguide. It is shown that the essential feature of an alternate focusing and defocusing beam is retained, but that the intensity distribution is cumulatively modified at the foci and at the outer portions of the beam as compared to that of the paraxial case. Second, some general features of paraxial beam propagation are examined for the case of axially varying waveguides. Finally, laser plasma coupling is examined for the case when laser heating generates a density distribution that is radially parabolic near the axis and when the energy absorbed over a focal length of a plasma lens is small. It is shown that stable or unstable beam propagation depends upon the relative magnitude of the density fluctuations which exist in the axial variation of the waveguides as a result of laser heating. When the fluctuations are small, the propagation is stable, and a simple algebraic expression is obtained which relates the beam diameter to the axially slow averaged variation in the waveguide. When the fluctuations are large, the propagation stability can be determined only by consistently combining plasma dynamics and beam propagation to interrelate the axial variation of the beam to that of the waveguide. In this case of beam propagation in a time-varying waveguide, it is shown that the global stability of the propagation depends upon the initial fluctuation growth rate compared to the initial time rate of change in the radial curvature of the waveguide

  6. Finite-Time Stability of Large-Scale Systems with Interval Time-Varying Delay in Interconnection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. La-inchua

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate finite-time stability of a class of nonlinear large-scale systems with interval time-varying delays in interconnection. Time-delay functions are continuous but not necessarily differentiable. Based on Lyapunov stability theory and new integral bounding technique, finite-time stability of large-scale systems with interval time-varying delays in interconnection is derived. The finite-time stability criteria are delays-dependent and are given in terms of linear matrix inequalities which can be solved by various available algorithms. Numerical examples are given to illustrate effectiveness of the proposed method.

  7. State dependent arrival in bulk retrial queueing system with immediate Bernoulli feedback, multiple vacations and threshold

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niranjan, S. P.; Chandrasekaran, V. M.; Indhira, K.

    2017-11-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyse state dependent arrival in bulk retrial queueing system with immediate Bernoulli feedback, multiple vacations, threshold and constant retrial policy. Primary customers are arriving into the system in bulk with different arrival rates λ a and λ b . If arriving customers find the server is busy then the entire batch will join to orbit. Customer from orbit request service one by one with constant retrial rate γ. On the other hand if an arrival of customers finds the server is idle then customers will be served in batches according to general bulk service rule. After service completion, customers may request service again with probability δ as feedback or leave from the system with probability 1 - δ. In the service completion epoch, if the orbit size is zero then the server leaves for multiple vacations. The server continues the vacation until the orbit size reaches the value ‘N’ (N > b). At the vacation completion, if the orbit size is ‘N’ then the server becomes ready to provide service for customers from the main pool or from the orbit. For the designed queueing model, probability generating function of the queue size at an arbitrary time will be obtained by using supplementary variable technique. Various performance measures will be derived with suitable numerical illustrations.

  8. Do Time-Varying Covariances, Volatility Comovement and Spillover Matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Lakshmi Balasubramanyan

    2005-01-01

    Financial markets and their respective assets are so intertwined; analyzing any single market in isolation ignores important information. We investigate whether time varying volatility comovement and spillover impact the true variance-covariance matrix under a time-varying correlation set up. Statistically significant volatility spillover and comovement between US, UK and Japan is found. To demonstrate the importance of modelling volatility comovement and spillover, we look at a simple portfo...

  9. Newtonian cosmology with a time-varying constant of gravitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McVittie, G.C.

    1978-01-01

    Newtonian cosmology is based on the Eulerian equations of fluid mechanics combined with Poisson's equation modified by the introduction of a time-varying G. Spherically symmetric model universes are worked out with instantaneously uniform densities. They are indeterminate unless instantaneous uniformity of the pressure is imposed. When G varies as an inverse power of the time, the models can in some cases be shown to depend on the solution of a second-order differential equation which also occurs in the Friedmann models of general relativity. In Section 3, a method for 'passing through' a singularity of this equation is proposed which entails making four arbitrary mathematical assumptions. When G varies as (time) -1 , models with initially cycloidal motion are possible, each cycle becoming longer as time progresses. Finally, gravitation becomes so weak that the model expands to infinity. Kinetic and potential energies for the whole model are derived from the basic equations; their sum is not constant. (author)

  10. Active control of time-varying broadband noise and vibrations using a sliding-window Kalman filter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ophem, S.; Berkhoff, Arthur P.; Sas, P.; Moens, D.; Denayer, H.

    2014-01-01

    Recently, a multiple-input/multiple-output Kalman filter technique was presented to control time-varying broadband noise and vibrations. By describing the feed-forward broadband active noise control problem in terms of a state estimation problem it was possible to achieve a faster rate of

  11. Incorporating fault zone head wave and direct wave secondary arrival times into seismic tomography: Application at Parkfield, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennington, Ninfa L.; Thurber, Clifford; Peng, Zhigang; Zhang, Haijiang; Zhao, Peng

    2013-03-01

    We present a three-dimensional (3D) P wave velocity (Vp) model of the Parkfield region that utilizes existing P wave arrival time data, including fault zone head waves (FZHWs), and data from direct wave secondary arrivals (DWSAs). The first-arrival and DWSA travel times are obtained as the global- and local-minimum travel time paths, respectively. The inclusion of FZHWs and DWSAs results in as much as a 5% and a 10% increase in the across-fault velocity contrast, respectively, for the Vp model at Parkfield relative to that of Thurber et al. [2006]. Viewed along strike, three pronounced velocity contrast regions are observed: a pair of strong positive velocity contrasts (SW fast), one NW of the 1966 Parkfield earthquake hypocenter and the other SE of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake hypocenter, and a strong negative velocity contrast (NE fast) between the two hypocenters. The negative velocity contrast partially to entirely encompasses peak coseismic slip estimated in several slip models for the 2004 earthquake, suggesting that the negative velocity contrast played a part in defining the rupture patch of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. Following Ampuero and Ben-Zion (2008), the pattern of velocity contrasts is consistent with the observed bilateral rupture propagation for the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. Although the velocity contrasts also suggest bilateral rupture propagation for the 1966 Parkfield earthquake, the fault is creeping to the NW here, i.e., exhibiting velocity-strengthening behavior. Thus, it is not surprising that rupture propagated only SE during this event.

  12. On exponential stability of bidirectional associative memory neural networks with time-varying delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Ju H.; Lee, S.M.; Kwon, O.M.

    2009-01-01

    For bidirectional associate memory neural networks with time-varying delays, the problems of determining the exponential stability and estimating the exponential convergence rate are investigated by employing the Lyapunov functional method and linear matrix inequality (LMI) technique. A novel criterion for the stability, which give information on the delay-dependent property, is derived. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the obtained results.

  13. Design and Performance Evaluation on Ultra-Wideband Time-Of-Arrival 3D Tracking System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Jianjun; Arndt, Dickey; Ngo, Phong; Dusl, John

    2012-01-01

    A three-dimensional (3D) Ultra-Wideband (UWB) Time--of-Arrival (TOA) tracking system has been studied at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) to provide the tracking capability inside the International Space Station (ISS) modules for various applications. One of applications is to locate and report the location where crew experienced possible high level of carbon-dioxide and felt upset. In order to accurately locate those places in a multipath intensive environment like ISS modules, it requires a robust real-time location system (RTLS) which can provide the required accuracy and update rate. A 3D UWB TOA tracking system with two-way ranging has been proposed and studied. The designed system will be tested in the Wireless Habitat Testbed which simulates the ISS module environment. In this presentation, we discuss the 3D TOA tracking algorithm and the performance evaluation based on different tracking baseline configurations. The simulation results show that two configurations of the tracking baseline are feasible. With 100 picoseconds standard deviation (STD) of TOA estimates, the average tracking error 0.2392 feet (about 7 centimeters) can be achieved for configuration Twisted Rectangle while the average tracking error 0.9183 feet (about 28 centimeters) can be achieved for configuration Slightly-Twisted Top Rectangle . The tracking accuracy can be further improved with the improvement of the STD of TOA estimates. With 10 picoseconds STD of TOA estimates, the average tracking error 0.0239 feet (less than 1 centimeter) can be achieved for configuration "Twisted Rectangle".

  14. Modeling of Electricity Demand for Azerbaijan: Time-Varying Coefficient Cointegration Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeyhun I. Mikayilov

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Recent literature has shown that electricity demand elasticities may not be constant over time and this has investigated using time-varying estimation methods. As accurate modeling of electricity demand is very important in Azerbaijan, which is a transitional country facing significant change in its economic outlook, we analyze whether the response of electricity demand to income and price is varying over time in this economy. We employed the Time-Varying Coefficient cointegration approach, a cutting-edge time-varying estimation method. We find evidence that income elasticity demonstrates sizeable variation for the period of investigation ranging from 0.48% to 0.56%. The study has some useful policy implications related to the income and price aspects of the electricity consumption in Azerbaijan.

  15. Time-varying correlation and common structures in volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, Yang

    2016-01-01

    This thesis studies time series properties of the covariance structure of multivariate asset returns. First, the time-varying feature of correlation is investigated at the intraday level with a new correlation model incorporating the intraday correlation dynamics. Second, the thesis develops a

  16. A discrete single server queue with Markovian arrivals and phase type group services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Attahiru Sule Alfa

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a single-server discrete queueing system in which arrivals occur according to a Markovian arrival process. Service is provided in groups of size no more than M customers. The service times are assumed to follow a discrete phase type distribution, whose representation may depend on the group size. Under a probabilistic service rule, which depends on the number of customers waiting in the queue, this system is studied as a Markov process. This type of queueing system is encountered in the operations of an automatic storage retrieval system. The steady-state probability vector is shown to be of (modified matrix-geometric type. Efficient algorithmic procedures for the computation of the rate matrix, steady-state probability vector, and some important system performance measures are developed. The steady-state waiting time distribution is derived explicitly. Some numerical examples are presented.

  17. Effect of time-varying tropospheric models on near-regional and regional infrasound propagation as constrained by observational data

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, Mihan H.; Stump, Brian W.; Hayward, Chris

    2008-06-01

    The Chulwon Seismo-Acoustic Array (CHNAR) is a regional seismo-acoustic array with co-located seismometers and infrasound microphones on the Korean peninsula. Data from forty-two days over the course of a year between October 1999 and August 2000 were analyzed; 2052 infrasound-only arrivals and 23 seismo-acoustic arrivals were observed over the six week study period. A majority of the signals occur during local working hours, hour 0 to hour 9 UT and appear to be the result of cultural activity located within a 250 km radius. Atmospheric modeling is presented for four sample days during the study period, one in each of November, February, April, and August. Local meteorological data sampled at six hour intervals is needed to accurately model the observed arrivals and this data produced highly temporally variable thermal ducts that propagated infrasound signals within 250 km, matching the temporal variation in the observed arrivals. These ducts change dramatically on the order of hours, and meteorological data from the appropriate sampled time frame was necessary to interpret the observed arrivals.

  18. Some performance measures for vacation models with a batch Markovian arrival process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadrac K. Matendo

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a single server infinite capacity queueing system, where the arrival process is a batch Markovian arrival process (BMAP. Particular BMAPs are the batch Poisson arrival process, the Markovian arrival process (MAP, many batch arrival processes with correlated interarrival times and batch sizes, and superpositions of these processes. We note that the MAP includes phase-type (PH renewal processes and non-renewal processes such as the Markov modulated Poisson process (MMPP.

  19. Multi-Step Time Series Forecasting with an Ensemble of Varied Length Mixture Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Yicun; Yin, Hujun

    2018-05-01

    Many real-world problems require modeling and forecasting of time series, such as weather temperature, electricity demand, stock prices and foreign exchange (FX) rates. Often, the tasks involve predicting over a long-term period, e.g. several weeks or months. Most existing time series models are inheritably for one-step prediction, that is, predicting one time point ahead. Multi-step or long-term prediction is difficult and challenging due to the lack of information and uncertainty or error accumulation. The main existing approaches, iterative and independent, either use one-step model recursively or treat the multi-step task as an independent model. They generally perform poorly in practical applications. In this paper, as an extension of the self-organizing mixture autoregressive (AR) model, the varied length mixture (VLM) models are proposed to model and forecast time series over multi-steps. The key idea is to preserve the dependencies between the time points within the prediction horizon. Training data are segmented to various lengths corresponding to various forecasting horizons, and the VLM models are trained in a self-organizing fashion on these segments to capture these dependencies in its component AR models of various predicting horizons. The VLM models form a probabilistic mixture of these varied length models. A combination of short and long VLM models and an ensemble of them are proposed to further enhance the prediction performance. The effectiveness of the proposed methods and their marked improvements over the existing methods are demonstrated through a number of experiments on synthetic data, real-world FX rates and weather temperatures.

  20. Augmented Lagrange Programming Neural Network for Localization Using Time-Difference-of-Arrival Measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Zifa; Leung, Chi Sing; So, Hing Cheung; Constantinides, Anthony George

    2017-08-15

    A commonly used measurement model for locating a mobile source is time-difference-of-arrival (TDOA). As each TDOA measurement defines a hyperbola, it is not straightforward to compute the mobile source position due to the nonlinear relationship in the measurements. This brief exploits the Lagrange programming neural network (LPNN), which provides a general framework to solve nonlinear constrained optimization problems, for the TDOA-based localization. The local stability of the proposed LPNN solution is also analyzed. Simulation results are included to evaluate the localization accuracy of the LPNN scheme by comparing with the state-of-the-art methods and the optimality benchmark of Cramér-Rao lower bound.

  1. Bunch arrival time monitors; Concepts towards improving the sensitivity for low charge operation for FLASH II and XFEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Penirschke, Andreas; Angelovski, Aleksandar; Jakoby, Rolf [TU Darmstadt, Institut fuer Mikrowellentechnik und Photonik, Merckstr. 25, 64283 Darmstadt (Germany); Sydlo, Cezary; Bousonville, Michael; Czwalinna, Marie Kristin; Schlarb, Holger [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Kuhl, Alexander [University of Hamburg, Physics Department, Accelerator Physics Group (Germany); Weiland, Thomas [Technische Univ. Darmstadt (Germany). Inst. fuer Theorie Elektromagnetischer Felder

    2013-07-01

    High gain Free-Electron Lasers can generate ultra short X-ray pulses in the femtosecond range. For a stable operation of the FEL, the precise knowledge of the bunch arrival time is crucial. A novel high bandwidth Bunch Arrival time Monitor was recently installed at FLASH to allow a low charge operation mode with a sub-10 fs resolution for bunch charges of 20 pC or more. The BAM is equipped with cone shaped pickups for the precise measurement of both, the high and low bunch charge operation mode. For the extension of FLASH facility to FLASH II new pickups for the high bandwidth BAMs need to be developed. The new BAM needs to maximize the voltage level of the beam induced signal for low charge operation mode in order to provide sufficient signal strength for the subsequent electronics. In this talk, we present concepts to improve the signal strength at the electro-optic modulators for low charge operation at FLASH II and XFEL.

  2. Automatic arrival time detection for earthquakes based on Modified Laplacian of Gaussian filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saad, Omar M.; Shalaby, Ahmed; Samy, Lotfy; Sayed, Mohammed S.

    2018-04-01

    Precise identification of onset time for an earthquake is imperative in the right figuring of earthquake's location and different parameters that are utilized for building seismic catalogues. P-wave arrival detection of weak events or micro-earthquakes cannot be precisely determined due to background noise. In this paper, we propose a novel approach based on Modified Laplacian of Gaussian (MLoG) filter to detect the onset time even in the presence of very weak signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs). The proposed algorithm utilizes a denoising-filter algorithm to smooth the background noise. In the proposed algorithm, we employ the MLoG mask to filter the seismic data. Afterward, we apply a Dual-threshold comparator to detect the onset time of the event. The results show that the proposed algorithm can detect the onset time for micro-earthquakes accurately, with SNR of -12 dB. The proposed algorithm achieves an onset time picking accuracy of 93% with a standard deviation error of 0.10 s for 407 field seismic waveforms. Also, we compare the results with short and long time average algorithm (STA/LTA) and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and the proposed algorithm outperforms them.

  3. Angle of arrival estimation using spectral interferometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barber, Z.W.; Harrington, C.; Thiel, C.W.; Babbitt, W.R.; Krishna Mohan, R.

    2010-01-01

    We have developed a correlative signal processing concept based on a Mach-Zehnder interferometer and spatial-spectral (S2) materials that enables direct mapping of RF spectral phase as well as power spectral recording. This configuration can be used for precise frequency resolved time delay estimation between signals received by a phased antenna array system that in turn could be utilized to estimate the angle of arrival. We present an analytical theoretical model and a proof-of-principle demonstration of the concept of time difference of arrival estimation with a cryogenically cooled Tm:YAG crystal that operates on microwave signals modulated onto a stabilized optical carrier at 793 nm.

  4. Angle of arrival estimation using spectral interferometry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barber, Z.W.; Harrington, C.; Thiel, C.W.; Babbitt, W.R. [Spectrum Lab, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717 (United States); Krishna Mohan, R., E-mail: krishna@spectrum.montana.ed [Spectrum Lab, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717 (United States)

    2010-09-15

    We have developed a correlative signal processing concept based on a Mach-Zehnder interferometer and spatial-spectral (S2) materials that enables direct mapping of RF spectral phase as well as power spectral recording. This configuration can be used for precise frequency resolved time delay estimation between signals received by a phased antenna array system that in turn could be utilized to estimate the angle of arrival. We present an analytical theoretical model and a proof-of-principle demonstration of the concept of time difference of arrival estimation with a cryogenically cooled Tm:YAG crystal that operates on microwave signals modulated onto a stabilized optical carrier at 793 nm.

  5. Knowledge-based scheduling of arrival aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krzeczowski, K.; Davis, T.; Erzberger, H.; Lev-Ram, I.; Bergh, C.

    1995-01-01

    A knowledge-based method for scheduling arrival aircraft in the terminal area has been implemented and tested in real-time simulation. The scheduling system automatically sequences, assigns landing times, and assigns runways to arrival aircraft by utilizing continuous updates of aircraft radar data and controller inputs. The scheduling algorithms is driven by a knowledge base which was obtained in over two thousand hours of controller-in-the-loop real-time simulation. The knowledge base contains a series of hierarchical 'rules' and decision logic that examines both performance criteria, such as delay reduction, as well as workload reduction criteria, such as conflict avoidance. The objective of the algorithms is to devise an efficient plan to land the aircraft in a manner acceptable to the air traffic controllers. This paper will describe the scheduling algorithms, give examples of their use, and present data regarding their potential benefits to the air traffic system.

  6. Visualizing time-varying harmonics using filter banks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duque, C.A.; Da Silveira, P.M.; Ribeiro, P.F.

    2011-01-01

    Although it is well known that Fourier analysis is in reality only accurately applicable to steady state waveforms, it is a widely used tool to study and monitor time-varying signals, such as are commonplace in electrical power systems. The disadvantages of Fourier analysis, such as frequency

  7. Stabilization of the Wave Equation with Boundary Time-Varying Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the stabilization of the wave equation with variable coefficients in a bounded domain and a time-varying delay term in the time-varying, weakly nonlinear boundary feedbacks. By the Riemannian geometry methods and a suitable assumption of nonlinearity, we obtain the uniform decay of the energy of the closed loop system.

  8. Reusable Launch Vehicle Attitude Control Using a Time-Varying Sliding Mode Control Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shtessel, Yuri B.; Zhu, J. Jim; Daniels, Dan; Jackson, Scott (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we present a time-varying sliding mode control (TVSMC) technique for reusable launch vehicle (RLV) attitude control in ascent and entry flight phases. In ascent flight the guidance commands Euler roll, pitch and yaw angles, and in entry flight it commands the aerodynamic angles of bank, attack and sideslip. The controller employs a body rate inner loop and the attitude outer loop, which are separated in time-scale by the singular perturbation principle. The novelty of the TVSMC is that both the sliding surface and the boundary layer dynamics can be varied in real time using the PD-eigenvalue assignment technique. This salient feature is used to cope with control command saturation and integrator windup in the presence of severe disturbance or control effector failure, which enhances the robustness and fault tolerance of the controller. The TV-SMC ascent and descent designs are currently being tested with high fidelity, 6-DOF dispersion simulations. The test results will be presented in the final version of this paper.

  9. Hydrodynamic mean-field solutions of 1D exclusion processes with spatially varying hopping rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lakatos, Greg; O' Brien, John; Chou, Tom [Department of Biomathematics and Institute for Pure and Applied Mathematics, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States)

    2006-03-10

    We analyse the open boundary partially asymmetric exclusion process with smoothly varying internal hopping rates in the infinite-size, mean-field limit. The mean-field equations for particle densities are written in terms of Ricatti equations with the steady-state current J as a parameter. These equations are solved both analytically and numerically. Upon imposing the boundary conditions set by the injection and extraction rates, the currents J are found self-consistently. We find a number of cases where analytic solutions can be found exactly or approximated. Results for J from asymptotic analyses for slowly varying hopping rates agree extremely well with those from extensive Monte Carlo simulations, suggesting that mean-field currents asymptotically approach the exact currents in the hydrodynamic limit, as the hopping rates vary slowly over the lattice. If the forward hopping rate is greater than or less than the backward hopping rate throughout the entire chain, the three standard steady-state phases are preserved. Our analysis reveals the sensitivity of the current to the relative phase between the forward and backward hopping rate functions.

  10. Hydrodynamic mean-field solutions of 1D exclusion processes with spatially varying hopping rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lakatos, Greg; O'Brien, John; Chou, Tom

    2006-01-01

    We analyse the open boundary partially asymmetric exclusion process with smoothly varying internal hopping rates in the infinite-size, mean-field limit. The mean-field equations for particle densities are written in terms of Ricatti equations with the steady-state current J as a parameter. These equations are solved both analytically and numerically. Upon imposing the boundary conditions set by the injection and extraction rates, the currents J are found self-consistently. We find a number of cases where analytic solutions can be found exactly or approximated. Results for J from asymptotic analyses for slowly varying hopping rates agree extremely well with those from extensive Monte Carlo simulations, suggesting that mean-field currents asymptotically approach the exact currents in the hydrodynamic limit, as the hopping rates vary slowly over the lattice. If the forward hopping rate is greater than or less than the backward hopping rate throughout the entire chain, the three standard steady-state phases are preserved. Our analysis reveals the sensitivity of the current to the relative phase between the forward and backward hopping rate functions

  11. Knowledge diffusion in complex networks by considering time-varying information channels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, He; Ma, Jing

    2018-03-01

    In this article, based on a model of epidemic spreading, we explore the knowledge diffusion process with an innovative mechanism for complex networks by considering time-varying information channels. To cover the knowledge diffusion process in homogeneous and heterogeneous networks, two types of networks (the BA network and the ER network) are investigated. The mean-field theory is used to theoretically draw the knowledge diffusion threshold. Numerical simulation demonstrates that the knowledge diffusion threshold is almost linearly correlated with the mean of the activity rate. In addition, under the influence of the activity rate and distinct from the classic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model, the density of knowers almost linearly grows with the spreading rate. Finally, in consideration of the ubiquitous mechanism of innovation, we further study the evolution of knowledge in our proposed model. The results suggest that compared with the effect of the spreading rate, the average knowledge version of the population is affected more by the innovation parameter and the mean of the activity rate. Furthermore, in the BA network, the average knowledge version of individuals with higher degree is always newer than those with lower degree.

  12. Does a Teacher's Classroom Observation Rating Vary across Multiple Classrooms?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Xiaoxuan; Li, Hongli; Leroux, Audrey J.

    2018-01-01

    Classroom observations have been increasingly used for teacher evaluations, and it is important to examine the measurement quality and the use of observation ratings. When a teacher is observed in multiple classrooms, his or her observation ratings may vary across classrooms. In that case, using ratings from one classroom per teacher may not be…

  13. Investigating Time-Varying Drivers of Grid Project Emissions Impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barrett, Emily L.; Thayer, Brandon L.; Pal, Seemita; Studarus, Karen E.

    2017-11-15

    The emissions consequences of smart grid technologies depend heavily on their context and vary not only by geographical location, but by time of year. The same technology operated to meet the same objective may increase the emissions associated with energy generation for part of the year and decrease emissions during other times. The Grid Project Impact Quantification (GridPIQ) tool provides the ability to estimate these seasonal variations and garner insight into the time-varying drivers of grid project emissions impacts. This work leverages GridPIQ to examine the emissions implications across years and seasons of adding energy storage technology to reduce daily peak demand in California and New York.

  14. Locating Microseism Sources Using Spurious Arrivals in Intercontinental Noise Correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Retailleau, Lise; Boué, Pierre; Stehly, Laurent; Campillo, Michel

    2017-10-01

    The accuracy of Green's functions retrieved from seismic noise correlations in the microseism frequency band is limited by the uneven distribution of microseism sources at the surface of the Earth. As a result, correlation functions are often biased as compared to the expected Green's functions, and they can include spurious arrivals. These spurious arrivals are seismic arrivals that are visible on the correlation and do not belong to the theoretical impulse response. In this article, we propose to use Rayleigh wave spurious arrivals detected on correlation functions computed between European and United States seismic stations to locate microseism sources in the Atlantic Ocean. We perform a slant stack on a time distance gather of correlations obtained from an array of stations that comprises a regional deployment and a distant station. The arrival times and the apparent slowness of the spurious arrivals lead to the location of their source, which is obtained through a grid search procedure. We discuss improvements in the location through this methodology as compared to classical back projection of microseism energy. This method is interesting because it only requires an array and a distant station on each side of an ocean, conditions that can be met relatively easily.

  15. Improvement to Airport Throughput Using Intelligent Arrival Scheduling and an Expanded Planning Horizon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaab, Patricia C.

    2012-01-01

    The first phase of this study investigated the amount of time a flight can be delayed or expedited within the Terminal Airspace using only speed changes. The Arrival Capacity Calculator analysis tool was used to predict the time adjustment envelope for standard descent arrivals and then for CDA arrivals. Results ranged from 0.77 to 5.38 minutes. STAR routes were configured for the ACES simulation, and a validation of the ACC results was conducted comparing the maximum predicted time adjustments to those seen in ACES. The final phase investigated full runway-to-runway trajectories using ACES. The radial distance used by the arrival scheduler was incrementally increased from 50 to 150 nautical miles (nmi). The increased Planning Horizon radii allowed the arrival scheduler to arrange, path stretch, and speed-adjust flights to more fully load the arrival stream. The average throughput for the high volume portion of the day increased from 30 aircraft per runway for the 50 nmi radius to 40 aircraft per runway for the 150 nmi radius for a traffic set representative of high volume 2018. The recommended radius for the arrival scheduler s Planning Horizon was found to be 130 nmi, which allowed more than 95% loading of the arrival stream.

  16. Wide-field time-correlated single photon counting (TCSPC) microscopy with time resolution below the frame exposure time

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirvonen, Liisa M. [Department of Physics, King' s College London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS (United Kingdom); Petrášek, Zdeněk [Max Planck Institute of Biochemistry, Department of Cellular and Molecular Biophysics, Am Klopferspitz 18, D-82152 Martinsried (Germany); Suhling, Klaus, E-mail: klaus.suhling@kcl.ac.uk [Department of Physics, King' s College London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS (United Kingdom)

    2015-07-01

    Fast frame rate CMOS cameras in combination with photon counting intensifiers can be used for fluorescence imaging with single photon sensitivity at kHz frame rates. We show here how the phosphor decay of the image intensifier can be exploited for accurate timing of photon arrival well below the camera exposure time. This is achieved by taking ratios of the intensity of the photon events in two subsequent frames, and effectively allows wide-field TCSPC. This technique was used for measuring decays of ruthenium compound Ru(dpp) with lifetimes as low as 1 μs with 18.5 μs frame exposure time, including in living HeLa cells, using around 0.1 μW excitation power. We speculate that by using an image intensifier with a faster phosphor decay to match a higher camera frame rate, photon arrival time measurements on the nanosecond time scale could well be possible.

  17. Impulsive effect on global exponential stability of BAM fuzzy cellular neural networks with time-varying delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Kelin

    2010-02-01

    In this article, a class of impulsive bidirectional associative memory (BAM) fuzzy cellular neural networks (FCNNs) with time-varying delays is formulated and investigated. By employing delay differential inequality and M-matrix theory, some sufficient conditions ensuring the existence, uniqueness and global exponential stability of equilibrium point for impulsive BAM FCNNs with time-varying delays are obtained. In particular, a precise estimate of the exponential convergence rate is also provided, which depends on system parameters and impulsive perturbation intention. It is believed that these results are significant and useful for the design and applications of BAM FCNNs. An example is given to show the effectiveness of the results obtained here.

  18. Nonlinear recurrent neural networks for finite-time solution of general time-varying linear matrix equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Lin; Liao, Bolin; Li, Shuai; Chen, Ke

    2018-02-01

    In order to solve general time-varying linear matrix equations (LMEs) more efficiently, this paper proposes two nonlinear recurrent neural networks based on two nonlinear activation functions. According to Lyapunov theory, such two nonlinear recurrent neural networks are proved to be convergent within finite-time. Besides, by solving differential equation, the upper bounds of the finite convergence time are determined analytically. Compared with existing recurrent neural networks, the proposed two nonlinear recurrent neural networks have a better convergence property (i.e., the upper bound is lower), and thus the accurate solutions of general time-varying LMEs can be obtained with less time. At last, various different situations have been considered by setting different coefficient matrices of general time-varying LMEs and a great variety of computer simulations (including the application to robot manipulators) have been conducted to validate the better finite-time convergence of the proposed two nonlinear recurrent neural networks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Seismicity and arrival-time residuals from the Victoria Earthquake of June 9, 1980

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wong, V.; Frez, J.

    1981-01-01

    Hypocenter distribution in space and time of the aftershock activity from the Victoria Earthquake of June 9, 1980 was studied. It was concluded that the main event excited aftershocks in several pre-existing nests at the northwest end of the Cerro Prieto Fault, but no significant activity occurred at the immediate neighborhood of the main event. The depth of the aftershocks increases with the distance from the northwest end of the fault and this feature might be related with the higher temperatures and the spreading center located between the ends of the Imperial and Cerro Prieto Faults. The significance of the arrival-times residuals for local and regional stations is discussed both for P and S-waves and the importance of obtaining station corrections is emphasized. The non-uniqueness in determining a structure which minimizes the residuals is illustrated. Two different structures which satisfy the local data are presented.

  20. Long Memory of Financial Time Series and Hidden Markov Models with Time-Varying Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Hidden Markov models are often used to model daily returns and to infer the hidden state of financial markets. Previous studies have found that the estimated models change over time, but the implications of the time-varying behavior have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive...... to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time-varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one-step density forecasts. Finally, it is shown that the forecasting performance of the estimated models can be further improved using local smoothing to forecast the parameter variations....

  1. Arrival and Departure Patterns of Public Sector Employees before and after Implementation of Flexitime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronen, Simcha

    1981-01-01

    Examined the effects of a flexible working hours schedule on the arrival and departure times of 162 public sector employees. Results indicated that workers, when scheduling their own workday, deviate only moderately from their preflexitime arrival/departure times; and they tend to develop relatively stable arrival/departure patterns. (Author/RC)

  2. Pollinator effectiveness varies with experimental shifts in flowering time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafferty, Nicole E; Ives, Anthony R

    2012-04-01

    The earlier flowering times exhibited by many plant species are a conspicuous sign of climate change. Altered phenologies have caused concern that species could suffer population declines if they flower at times when effective pollinators are unavailable. For two perennial wildflowers, Tradescantia ohiensis and Asclepias incarnata, we used an experimental approach to explore how changing phenology affects the taxonomic composition of the pollinator assemblage and the effectiveness of individual pollinator taxa. After finding in the previous year that fruit set varied with flowering time, we manipulated flowering onset in greenhouses, placed plants in the field over the span of five weeks, and measured pollinator effectiveness as the number of seeds produced after a single visit to a flower. The average effectiveness of pollinators and the expected rates of pollination success were lower for plants of both species flowering earlier than for plants flowering at historical times, suggesting there could be reproductive costs to earlier flowering. Whereas for A. incarnata, differences in average seed set among weeks were due primarily to changes in the composition of the pollinator assemblage, the differences for T. ohiensis were driven by the combined effects of compositional changes and increases over time in the effectiveness of some pollinator taxa. Both species face the possibility of temporal mismatch between the availability of the most effective pollinators and the onset of flowering, and changes in the effectiveness of individual pollinator taxa through time may add an unexpected element to the reproductive consequences of such mismatches.

  3. Lyapunov Functions to Caputo Fractional Neural Networks with Time-Varying Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ravi Agarwal

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available One of the main properties of solutions of nonlinear Caputo fractional neural networks is stability and often the direct Lyapunov method is used to study stability properties (usually these Lyapunov functions do not depend on the time variable. In connection with the Lyapunov fractional method we present a brief overview of the most popular fractional order derivatives of Lyapunov functions among Caputo fractional delay differential equations. These derivatives are applied to various types of neural networks with variable coefficients and time-varying delays. We show that quadratic Lyapunov functions and their Caputo fractional derivatives are not applicable in some cases when one studies stability properties. Some sufficient conditions for stability of equilibrium of nonlinear Caputo fractional neural networks with time dependent transmission delays, time varying self-regulating parameters of all units and time varying functions of the connection between two neurons in the network are obtained. The cases of time varying Lipschitz coefficients as well as nonLipschitz activation functions are studied. We illustrate our theory on particular nonlinear Caputo fractional neural networks.

  4. The necessity for a time local dimension in systems with time-varying attractors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Særmark, Knud H; Ashkenazy, Y; Levitan, J

    1997-01-01

    We show that a simple non-linear system for ordinary differential equations may possess a time-varying attractor dimension. This indicates that it is infeasible to characterize EEG and MEG time series with a single time global dimension. We suggest another measure for the description of non...

  5. Investigation of relative arrival time distributions of EAS electron and muon component with the KASCADE central detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hafemann, W.; Haeusler, R.; Rebel, H.; Mathes, H.J.

    2000-01-01

    The central detector of the KASCADE experiment is equipped with two layers of scintillation detectors with different area coverage. The scintillators of both detector systems have a good timing resolution of about 1.6 ns. With these two arrangements we performed extensive measurements of the arrival time differences at different energy thresholds of the electron and the muon component of EAS. The observed time structure of the shower profile is classified according to different EAS parameters. We furthermore present an analysis and comparism based on detailed MC simulations of the shower development. This comparism shows good agreement between experimental data and the expected behaviour of the different time distributions. (orig.)

  6. Propagation of a laser beam in a time-varying waveguide. [plasma heating for controlled fusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, J. M.; Kevorkian, J.

    1978-01-01

    The propagation of an axisymmetric laser beam in a plasma column having a radially parabolic electron density distribution is reported. For the case of an axially uniform waveguide it is found that the basic characteristics of alternating focusing and defocusing beams are maintained. However, the intensity distribution is changed at the foci and outer-beam regions. The features of paraxial beam propagation are discussed with reference to axially varying waveguides. Laser plasma coupling is considered noting the case where laser heating produces a density distribution radially parabolic near the axis and the energy absorbed over the focal length of the plasma is small. It is found that: (1) beam-propagation stability is governed by the relative magnitude of the density fluctuations existing in the axial variation of the waveguides due to laser heating, and (2) for beam propagation in a time-varying waveguide, the global instability of the propagation is a function of the initial fluctuation growth rate as compared to the initial time rate of change in the radial curvature of the waveguide.

  7. Stroke Mortality, Clinical Presentation and Day of Arrival: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily C. O'Brien

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Recent studies report that acute stroke patients who present to the hospital on weekends have higher rates of 28-day mortality than similar patients who arrive during the week. However, how this association is related to clinical presentation and stroke type has not been systematically investigated. Methods and Results. We examined the association between day of arrival and 28-day mortality in 929 validated stroke events in the ARIC cohort from 1987–2004. Weekend arrival was defined as any arrival time from midnight Friday until midnight Sunday. Mortality was defined as all-cause fatal events from the day of arrival through the 28th day of followup. The presence or absence of thirteen stroke signs and symptoms were obtained through medical record review for each event. Binomial logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (OR; 95% CI for the association between weekend arrival and 28-day mortality for all stroke events and for stroke subtypes. The overall risk of 28-day mortality was 9.6% for weekday strokes and 10.1% for weekend strokes. In models controlling for patient demographics, clinical risk factors, and event year, weekend arrival was not associated with 28-day mortality (0.87; 0.51, 1.50. When stratified by stroke type, weekend arrival was not associated with increased odds of mortality for ischemic (1.17, 0.62, 2.23 or hemorrhagic (0.37; 0.11, 1.26 stroke patients. Conclusions. Presence or absence of thirteen signs and symptoms was similar for weekday patients and weekend patients when stratified by stroke type. Weekend arrival was not associated with 28-day all-cause mortality or differences in symptom presentation for strokes in this cohort.

  8. Electro-optic sampling at 90 degree interaction geometry for time-of-arrival stamping of ultrafast relativistic electron diffraction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. M. Scoby

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we study a new geometry setup for electro-optic sampling (EOS where the electron beam runs parallel to the ⟨110⟩ face of a ZnTe crystal and the probe laser is perpendicular to it and to the beam path. The simple setup is used to encode the time-of-arrival information of a 3.5  MeV<10  pC electron bunch on the spatial profile of the laser pulse. The electric field lines inside the dielectric bend at an angle due to a relatively large (n∼3 index of refraction of the ZnTe crystal. We found theoretically and experimentally that the EOS signal can be maximized with a proper choice of incoming laser polarization angle. We achieved single-shot nondestructive measurement of the relative time of arrival between the pump and the probe beams thus improving the temporal resolution of ultrafast relativistic electron diffraction experiments.

  9. Enhancing the estimation of blood pressure using pulse arrival time and two confounding factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baek, Hyun Jae; Kim, Ko Keun; Kim, Jung Soo; Lee, Boreom; Park, Kwang Suk

    2010-01-01

    A new method of blood pressure (BP) estimation using multiple regression with pulse arrival time (PAT) and two confounding factors was evaluated in clinical and unconstrained monitoring situations. For the first analysis with clinical data, electrocardiogram (ECG), photoplethysmogram (PPG) and invasive BP signals were obtained by a conventional patient monitoring device during surgery. In the second analysis, ECG, PPG and non-invasive BP were measured using systems developed to obtain data under conditions in which the subject was not constrained. To enhance the performance of BP estimation methods, heart rate (HR) and arterial stiffness were considered as confounding factors in regression analysis. The PAT and HR were easily extracted from ECG and PPG signals. For arterial stiffness, the duration from the maximum derivative point to the maximum of the dicrotic notch in the PPG signal, a parameter called TDB, was employed. In two experiments that normally cause BP variation, the correlation between measured BP and the estimated BP was investigated. Multiple-regression analysis with the two confounding factors improved correlation coefficients for diastolic blood pressure and systolic blood pressure to acceptable confidence levels, compared to existing methods that consider PAT only. In addition, reproducibility for the proposed method was determined using constructed test sets. Our results demonstrate that non-invasive, non-intrusive BP estimation can be obtained using methods that can be applied in both clinical and daily healthcare situations

  10. Enhancing the estimation of blood pressure using pulse arrival time and two confounding factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baek, Hyun Jae; Kim, Ko Keun; Kim, Jung Soo; Lee, Boreom; Park, Kwang Suk

    2010-02-01

    A new method of blood pressure (BP) estimation using multiple regression with pulse arrival time (PAT) and two confounding factors was evaluated in clinical and unconstrained monitoring situations. For the first analysis with clinical data, electrocardiogram (ECG), photoplethysmogram (PPG) and invasive BP signals were obtained by a conventional patient monitoring device during surgery. In the second analysis, ECG, PPG and non-invasive BP were measured using systems developed to obtain data under conditions in which the subject was not constrained. To enhance the performance of BP estimation methods, heart rate (HR) and arterial stiffness were considered as confounding factors in regression analysis. The PAT and HR were easily extracted from ECG and PPG signals. For arterial stiffness, the duration from the maximum derivative point to the maximum of the dicrotic notch in the PPG signal, a parameter called TDB, was employed. In two experiments that normally cause BP variation, the correlation between measured BP and the estimated BP was investigated. Multiple-regression analysis with the two confounding factors improved correlation coefficients for diastolic blood pressure and systolic blood pressure to acceptable confidence levels, compared to existing methods that consider PAT only. In addition, reproducibility for the proposed method was determined using constructed test sets. Our results demonstrate that non-invasive, non-intrusive BP estimation can be obtained using methods that can be applied in both clinical and daily healthcare situations.

  11. Flexible time-varying filter banks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuncer, Temel E.; Nguyen, Truong Q.

    1993-09-01

    Linear phase maximally flat FIR Butterworth filter approximations are discussed and a new filter design method is introduced. This variable cutoff filter design method uses the cosine modulated versions of a prototype filter. The design procedure is simple and different variants of this procedure can be used to obtain close to optimum linear phase filters. Using this method, flexible time-varying filter banks with good reconstruction error are introduced. These types of oversampled filter banks have small magnitude error which can be easily controlled by the appropriate choice of modulation frequency. This error can be further decreased by magnitude equalization without increasing the computational complexity considerably. Two dimensional design examples are also given.

  12. Two parallel finite queues with simultaneous services and Markovian arrivals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. Chakravarthy

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider a finite capacity single server queueing model with two buffers, A and B, of sizes K and N respectively. Messages arrive one at a time according to a Markovian arrival process. Messages that arrive at buffer A are of a different type from the messages that arrive at buffer B. Messages are processed according to the following rules: 1. When buffer A(B has a message and buffer B(A is empty, then one message from A(B is processed by the server. 2. When both buffers, A and B, have messages, then two messages, one from A and one from B, are processed simultaneously by the server. The service times are assumed to be exponentially distributed with parameters that may depend on the type of service. This queueing model is studied as a Markov process with a large state space and efficient algorithmic procedures for computing various system performance measures are given. Some numerical examples are discussed.

  13. Control and synchronisation in switched arrival systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rem, B.; Armbruster, H.D.

    2003-01-01

    A chaotic model of a production flow called the switched arrival system is extended to include switching times and maintenance. The probability distribution of the chaotic return times is calculated. Scheduling maintenance, loss of production due to switching, and control of the chaotic dynamics is

  14. On Regularly Varying and History-Dependent Convergence Rates of Solutions of a Volterra Equation with Infinite Memory

    OpenAIRE

    John A. D. Appleby

    2010-01-01

    We consider the rate of convergence to equilibrium of Volterra integrodifferential equations with infinite memory. We show that if the kernel of Volterra operator is regularly varying at infinity, and the initial history is regularly varying at minus infinity, then the rate of convergence to the equilibrium is regularly varying at infinity, and the exact pointwise rate of convergence can be determined in terms of the rate of decay of the kernel and the rate of growth of the initial history. ...

  15. A New Time-varying Concept of Risk in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarhadi, Ali; Ausín, María Concepción; Wiper, Michael P.

    2016-10-01

    In a changing climate arising from anthropogenic global warming, the nature of extreme climatic events is changing over time. Existing analytical stationary-based risk methods, however, assume multi-dimensional extreme climate phenomena will not significantly vary over time. To strengthen the reliability of infrastructure designs and the management of water systems in the changing environment, multidimensional stationary risk studies should be replaced with a new adaptive perspective. The results of a comparison indicate that current multi-dimensional stationary risk frameworks are no longer applicable to projecting the changing behaviour of multi-dimensional extreme climate processes. Using static stationary-based multivariate risk methods may lead to undesirable consequences in designing water system infrastructures. The static stationary concept should be replaced with a flexible multi-dimensional time-varying risk framework. The present study introduces a new multi-dimensional time-varying risk concept to be incorporated in updating infrastructure design strategies under changing environments arising from human-induced climate change. The proposed generalized time-varying risk concept can be applied for all stochastic multi-dimensional systems that are under the influence of changing environments.

  16. A New Time-varying Concept of Risk in a Changing Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarhadi, Ali; Ausín, María Concepción; Wiper, Michael P

    2016-10-20

    In a changing climate arising from anthropogenic global warming, the nature of extreme climatic events is changing over time. Existing analytical stationary-based risk methods, however, assume multi-dimensional extreme climate phenomena will not significantly vary over time. To strengthen the reliability of infrastructure designs and the management of water systems in the changing environment, multidimensional stationary risk studies should be replaced with a new adaptive perspective. The results of a comparison indicate that current multi-dimensional stationary risk frameworks are no longer applicable to projecting the changing behaviour of multi-dimensional extreme climate processes. Using static stationary-based multivariate risk methods may lead to undesirable consequences in designing water system infrastructures. The static stationary concept should be replaced with a flexible multi-dimensional time-varying risk framework. The present study introduces a new multi-dimensional time-varying risk concept to be incorporated in updating infrastructure design strategies under changing environments arising from human-induced climate change. The proposed generalized time-varying risk concept can be applied for all stochastic multi-dimensional systems that are under the influence of changing environments.

  17. Spectral encoding method for measuring the relative arrival time between x-ray/optical pulses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bionta, M. R.; Hartmann, N.; Weaver, M.; French, D.; Glownia, J. M.; Bostedt, C.; Chollet, M.; Ding, Y.; Fritz, D. M.; Fry, A. R.; Krzywinski, J.; Lemke, H. T.; Messerschmidt, M.; Schorb, S.; Zhu, D.; White, W. E.; Nicholson, D. J.; Cryan, J. P.; Baker, K.; Kane, D. J.

    2014-01-01

    The advent of few femtosecond x-ray light sources brings promise of x-ray/optical pump-probe experiments that can measure chemical and structural changes in the 10–100 fs time regime. Widely distributed timing systems used at x-ray Free-Electron Laser facilities are typically limited to above 50 fs fwhm jitter in active x-ray/optical synchronization. The approach of single-shot timing measurements is used to sort results in the event processing stage. This has seen wide use to accommodate the insufficient precision of active stabilization schemes. In this article, we review the current technique for “measure-and-sort” at the Linac Coherent Light Source at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory. The relative arrival time between an x-ray pulse and an optical pulse is measured near the experimental interaction region as a spectrally encoded cross-correlation signal. The cross-correlation provides a time-stamp for filter-and-sort algorithms used for real-time sorting. Sub-10 fs rms resolution is common in this technique, placing timing precision at the same scale as the duration of the shortest achievable x-ray pulses

  18. Time-Varying Networks of Inter-Ictal Discharging Reveal Epileptogenic Zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Luyan; Liang, Yi; Li, Fali; Sun, Hongbin; Peng, Wenjing; Du, Peishan; Si, Yajing; Song, Limeng; Yu, Liang; Xu, Peng

    2017-01-01

    The neuronal synchronous discharging may cause an epileptic seizure. Currently, most of the studies conducted to investigate the mechanism of epilepsy are based on EEGs or functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) recorded during the ictal discharging or the resting-state, and few studies have probed into the dynamic patterns during the inter-ictal discharging that are much easier to record in clinical applications. Here, we propose a time-varying network analysis based on adaptive directed transfer function to uncover the dynamic brain network patterns during the inter-ictal discharging. In addition, an algorithm based on the time-varying outflow of information derived from the network analysis is developed to detect the epileptogenic zone. The analysis performed revealed the time-varying network patterns during different stages of inter-ictal discharging; the epileptogenic zone was activated prior to the discharge onset then worked as the source to propagate the activity to other brain regions. Consistence between the epileptogenic zones detected by our proposed approach and the actual epileptogenic zones proved that time-varying network analysis could not only reveal the underlying neural mechanism of epilepsy, but also function as a useful tool in detecting the epileptogenic zone based on the EEGs in the inter-ictal discharging.

  19. Frequency variations of gravity waves interacting with a time-varying tide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, C.M.; Zhang, S.D.; Yi, F.; Huang, K.M.; Gan, Q.; Gong, Y. [Wuhan Univ., Hubei (China). School of Electronic Information; Ministry of Education, Wuhan, Hubei (China). Key Lab. of Geospace Environment and Geodesy; State Observatory for Atmospheric Remote Sensing, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Zhang, Y.H. [Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology (China). College of Hydrometeorolgy

    2013-11-01

    Using a nonlinear, 2-D time-dependent numerical model, we simulate the propagation of gravity waves (GWs) in a time-varying tide. Our simulations show that when aGW packet propagates in a time-varying tidal-wind environment, not only its intrinsic frequency but also its ground-based frequency would change significantly. The tidal horizontal-wind acceleration dominates the GW frequency variation. Positive (negative) accelerations induce frequency increases (decreases) with time. More interestingly, tidal-wind acceleration near the critical layers always causes the GW frequency to increase, which may partially explain the observations that high-frequency GW components are more dominant in the middle and upper atmosphere than in the lower atmosphere. The combination of the increased ground-based frequency of propagating GWs in a time-varying tidal-wind field and the transient nature of the critical layer induced by a time-varying tidal zonal wind creates favorable conditions for GWs to penetrate their originally expected critical layers. Consequently, GWs have an impact on the background atmosphere at much higher altitudes than expected, which indicates that the dynamical effects of tidal-GW interactions are more complicated than usually taken into account by GW parameterizations in global models.

  20. Arrival times of Flare/Halo CME associated shocks at the Earth: comparison of the predictions of three numerical models with these observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. P. McKenna-Lawlor

    2002-07-01

    Full Text Available The arrival times at L1 of eleven travelling shocks associated both with X-ray flaring and with halo CMEs recorded aboard SOHO/LASCO have been considered. Close to the Sun the velocities of these events were estimated using either Type II radio records or CME speeds. Close to the Earth the shocks were detected in the data of various solar wind plasma, interplanetary magnetic field (IMF and energetic particle experiments aboard SOHO, ACE, WIND, INTERBALL-1 and IMP-8. The real-time shock arrival predictions of three numerical models, namely the Shock Time of Arrival Model (STOA, the Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model (ISPM and the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry Solar Wind Model (HAFv.2 were tested against these observations. This is the first time that energetic protons (tens of keV to a few MeV have been used to complement plasma and IMF data in validating shock propagation models. The models were all generally successful in predicting shock arrivals. STOA provided the smallest values of the "predicted minus measured" arrival times and displayed a typical predictive precision better than about 8 h. The ratio of the calculated standard deviation of the transit times to Earth to the standard deviation of the measurements was estimated for each model (treating interacting events as composite shocks and these ratios turned out to be 0.60, 1.15 and 1.02 for STOA, ISPM and HAFv.2, respectively. If an event in the sample for which the shock velocity was not well known is omitted from consideration, these ratios become 0.36, 0.76 and 0.81, respectively. Larger statistical samples should now be tested. The ratio of the in situ shock velocity and the "Sun to L1" transit velocity (Vsh /Vtr was in the range of 0.7–0.9 for individual, non-interacting, shock events. HAFv.2 uniquely provided information on those changes in the COBpoint (the moving Connection point on the shock along the IMF to the OBserver which directly influenced energetic particle rise times

  1. Modeling polar cap F-region patches using time varying convection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sojka, J.J.; Bowline, M.D.; Schunk, R.W.; Decker, D.T.; Valladares, C.E.; Sheehan, R.; Anderson, D.N.; Heelis, R.A.

    1993-01-01

    Here the authors present the results of computerized simulations of the polar cap regions which were able to model the formation of polar cap patches. They used the Utah State University Time-Dependent Ionospheric Model (TDIM) and the Phillips Laboratory (PL) F-region models in this work. By allowing a time varying magnetospheric electric field in the models, they were able to generate the patches. This time varying field generates a convection in the ionosphere. This convection is similar to convective changes observed in the ionosphere at times of southward pointing interplanetary magnetic field, due to changes in the B y component of the IMF

  2. Computing Conditional VaR using Time-varying CopulasComputing Conditional VaR using Time-varying Copulas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Vaz de Melo Mendes

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available It is now widespread the use of Value-at-Risk (VaR as a canonical measure at risk. Most accurate VaR measures make use of some volatility model such as GARCH-type models. However, the pattern of volatility dynamic of a portfolio follows from the (univariate behavior of the risk assets, as well as from the type and strength of the associations among them. Moreover, the dependence structure among the components may change conditionally t past observations. Some papers have attempted to model this characteristic by assuming a multivariate GARCH model, or by considering the conditional correlation coefficient, or by incorporating some possibility for switches in regimes. In this paper we address this problem using time-varying copulas. Our modeling strategy allows for the margins to follow some FIGARCH type model while the copula dependence structure changes over time.

  3. Risk factors associated with short term mortality changes over time, after arrival to the emergency department

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bech, Camilla Nørgaard; Brabrand, Mikkel; Mikkelsen, Søren

    2018-01-01

    , 0-2 day, 3-7 day and 8-30 day mortality. The degree of acuteness at arrival defined by urgency-level, physician-assisted transfer to the Emergency Department and abnormal vital parameters are associated with 0-2 day mortality. High temperature at arrival shows no association in either mortality...

  4. Aggregation, Heterogeneous Autoregression and Volatility of Daily International Tourist Arrivals and Exchange Rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractTourism is a major source of service receipts for many countries, including Taiwan. The two leading tourism countries for Taiwan, comprising a high proportion of world tourist arrivals to Taiwan, are Japan and USA, which are sources of short and long haul tourism, respectively. As it is

  5. A method to increase optical timing spectra measurement rates using a multi-hit TDC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moses, W.W.

    1993-01-01

    A method is presented for using a modern time to digital converter (TDC) to increase the data collection rate for optical timing measurements such as scintillator decay times. It extends the conventional delayed coincidence method, where a synchronization signal ''starts'' a TDC and a photomultiplier tube (PMT) sampling the optical signal ''stops'' the TDC. Data acquisition rates are low with the conventional method because ε, the light collection efficiency of the ''stop'' PMT, is artificially limited to ε∼0.01 photons per ''start'' signal to reduce the probability of detecting more than one photon during the sampling period. With conventional TDCs, these multiple photon events bias the time spectrum since only the first ''stop'' pulse is digitized. The new method uses a modern TDC to detect whether additional ''stop'' signals occur during the sampling period, and actively reject these multiple photon events. This allows ε to be increased to almost 1 photon per ''start'' signal, which maximizes the data acquisition rate at a value nearly 20 times higher. Multi-hit TDCs can digitize the arrival times of n ''stop'' signals per ''start'' signal, which allows ε to be increased to ∼3n/4. While overlap of the ''stop'' signals prevents the full gain in data collection rate to be realized, significant improvements are possible for most applications. (orig.)

  6. A Model of Bus Bunching under Reliability-based Passenger Arrival Patterns

    OpenAIRE

    Fonzone, Achille; Schmöcker, Jan-Dirk; Liu, Ronghui

    2015-01-01

    If bus service departure times are not completely unknown to the passengers, non-uniform passenger arrival patterns can be expected. We propose that passengers decide their arrival time at stops based on a continuous logit model that considers the risk of missing services. Expected passenger waiting times are derived in a bus system that allows also for overtaking between bus services. We then propose an algorithm to derive the dwell time of subsequent buses serving a stop in order to illustr...

  7. Sex differences in accuracy and precision when judging time to arrival: data from two Internet studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Geoff; Sinclair, Kamila

    2011-12-01

    We report two Internet studies that investigated sex differences in the accuracy and precision of judging time to arrival. We used accuracy to mean the ability to match the actual time to arrival and precision to mean the consistency with which each participant made their judgments. Our task was presented as a computer game in which a toy UFO moved obliquely towards the participant through a virtual three-dimensional space on route to a docking station. The UFO disappeared before docking and participants pressed their space bar at the precise moment they thought the UFO would have docked. Study 1 showed it was possible to conduct quantitative studies of spatiotemporal judgments in virtual reality via the Internet and confirmed reports that men are more accurate because women underestimate, but found no difference in precision measured as intra-participant variation. Study 2 repeated Study 1 with five additional presentations of one condition to provide a better measure of precision. Again, men were more accurate than women but there were no sex differences in precision. However, within the coincidence-anticipation timing (CAT) literature, of those studies that report sex differences, a majority found that males are both more accurate and more precise than females. Noting that many CAT studies report no sex differences, we discuss appropriate interpretations of such null findings. While acknowledging that CAT performance may be influenced by experience we suggest that the sex difference may have originated among our ancestors with the evolutionary selection of men for hunting and women for gathering.

  8. Electromagnetic radiation in a time-varying background medium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Budko, N.V.

    2009-01-01

    Analytical solutions are presented for the electromagnetic radiation by an arbitrary pulsed source into a homogeneous time-varying background medium. In the constant-impedance case an explicit radiation formula is obtained for the synchronous permittivity and permeability described by any positive

  9. A Tentative Application Of Morphological Filters To Time-Varying Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billard, D.; Poquillon, B.

    1989-03-01

    In this paper, morphological filters, which are commonly used to process either 2D or multidimensional static images, are generalized to the analysis of time-varying image sequence. The introduction of the time dimension induces then interesting prop-erties when designing such spatio-temporal morphological filters. In particular, the specification of spatio-temporal structuring ele-ments (equivalent to time-varying spatial structuring elements) can be adjusted according to the temporal variations of the image sequences to be processed : this allows to derive specific morphological transforms to perform noise filtering or moving objects discrimination on dynamic images viewed by a non-stationary sensor. First, a brief introduction to the basic principles underlying morphological filters will be given. Then, a straightforward gener-alization of these principles to time-varying images will be pro-posed. This will lead us to define spatio-temporal opening and closing and to introduce some of their possible applications to process dynamic images. At last, preliminary results obtained us-ing a natural forward looking infrared (FUR) image sequence are presented.

  10. Fault zone structure determined through the analysis of earthquake arrival times

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michelini, A.

    1991-10-01

    This thesis develops and applies a technique for the simultaneous determination of P and S wave velocity models and hypocenters from a set of arrival times. The velocity models are parameterized in terms of cubic B-splines basis functions which permit the retrieval of smooth models that can be used directly for generation of synthetic seismograms using the ray method. In addition, this type of smoothing limits the rise of instabilities related to the poor resolving power of the data. V{sub P}/V{sub S} ratios calculated from P and S models display generally instabilities related to the different ray-coverages of compressional and shear waves. However, V{sub P}/V{sub S} ratios are important for correct identification of rock types and this study introduces a new methodology based on adding some coupling (i.e., proportionality) between P and S models which stabilizes the V{sub P}/V{sub S} models around some average preset value determined from the data. Tests of the technique with synthetic data show that this additional coupling regularizes effectively the resulting models.

  11. Urban sprawl and delayed ambulance arrival in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trowbridge, Matthew J; Gurka, Matthew J; O'Connor, Robert E

    2009-11-01

    Minimizing emergency medical service (EMS) response time is a central objective of prehospital care, yet the potential influence of built environment features such as urban sprawl on EMS system performance is often not considered. This study measures the association between urban sprawl and EMS response time to test the hypothesis that features of sprawling development increase the probability of delayed ambulance arrival. In 2008, EMS response times for 43,424 motor-vehicle crashes were obtained from the Fatal Analysis Reporting System, a national census of crashes involving > or =1 fatality. Sprawl at each crash location was measured using a continuous county-level index previously developed by Ewing et al. The association between sprawl and the probability of a delayed ambulance arrival (> or =8 minutes) was then measured using generalized linear mixed modeling to account for correlation among crashes from the same county. Urban sprawl is significantly associated with increased EMS response time and a higher probability of delayed ambulance arrival (p=0.03). This probability increases quadratically as the severity of sprawl increases while controlling for nighttime crash occurrence, road conditions, and presence of construction. For example, in sprawling counties (e.g., Fayette County GA), the probability of a delayed ambulance arrival for daytime crashes in dry conditions without construction was 69% (95% CI=66%, 72%) compared with 31% (95% CI=28%, 35%) in counties with prominent smart-growth characteristics (e.g., Delaware County PA). Urban sprawl is significantly associated with increased EMS response time and a higher probability of delayed ambulance arrival following motor-vehicle crashes in the U.S. The results of this study suggest that promotion of community design and development that follows smart-growth principles and regulates urban sprawl may improve EMS performance and reliability.

  12. Projected space-time and varying speed of light

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iovane, G.; Bellucci, S.; Benedetto, E.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper starting from El Naschie's Cantorian space-time and our model of projected Universe, we consider its properties in connection with varying speed of light. A possible way-out of the related problem is provided by the Fantappie group approach

  13. Mars Science Laboratory Launch-Arrival Space Study: A Pork Chop Plot Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cianciolo, Alicia Dwyer; Powell, Richard; Lockwood, Mary Kae

    2006-01-01

    Launch-Arrival, or "pork chop", plot analysis can provide mission designers with valuable information and insight into a specific launch and arrival space selected for a mission. The study begins with the array of entry states for each pair of selected Earth launch and Mars arrival dates, and nominal entry, descent and landing trajectories are simulated for each pair. Parameters of interest, such as maximum heat rate, are plotted in launch-arrival space. The plots help to quickly identify launch and arrival regions that are not feasible under current constraints or technology and also provide information as to what technologies may need to be developed to reach a desired region. This paper provides a discussion of the development, application, and results of a pork chop plot analysis to the Mars Science Laboratory mission. This technique is easily applicable to other missions at Mars and other destinations.

  14. An Explicit MOT-TD-VIE Solver for Time Varying Media

    KAUST Repository

    Sayed, Sadeed Bin; Ulku, Huseyin Arda; Bagci, Hakan

    2016-01-01

    An explicit marching on-in-time (MOT) scheme for solving the time domain electric field integral equation enforced on volumes with time varying dielectric permittivity is proposed. Unknowns of the integral equation and the constitutive relation, i

  15. Time-varying Concurrent Risk of Extreme Droughts and Heatwaves in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarhadi, A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Ausin, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena such as droughts and heatwaves. The concurrent of these nature-changing climatic extremes may result in intensifying undesirable consequences in terms of human health and destructive effects in water resources. The present study assesses the risk of concurrent extreme droughts and heatwaves under dynamic nonstationary conditions arising from climate change in California. For doing so, a generalized fully Bayesian time-varying multivariate risk framework is proposed evolving through time under dynamic human-induced environment. In this methodology, an extreme, Bayesian, dynamic copula (Gumbel) is developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes. The time-varying extreme marginals are previously modeled using a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference is integrated to estimate parameters of the nonstationary marginals and copula using a Gibbs sampling method. Modelled marginals and copula are then used to develop a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period concept for the estimation of concurrent risk. Here we argue that climate change has increased the chance of concurrent droughts and heatwaves over decades in California. It is also demonstrated that a time-varying multivariate perspective should be incorporated to assess realistic concurrent risk of the extremes for water resources planning and management in a changing climate in this area. The proposed generalized methodology can be applied for other stochastic nature-changing compound climate extremes that are under the influence of climate change.

  16. Post-arrival health screening in Karen refugees in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, Georgia A; Sangster, Katrina J; Maxwell, Ellen L; McBride, Catherine R J; Drewe, Ross H

    2012-01-01

    To document the prevalence of nutritional deficiencies, infectious diseases and susceptibility to vaccine preventable diseases in Karen refugees in Australia. Retrospective audit of pathology results. Community based cohort in Melbourne over the period July 2006-October 2009. 1136 Karen refugee children and adults, representing almost complete local area settlement and 48% of total Victorian Karen humanitarian intake for the time period. Prevalence of positive test results for refugee health screening, with breakdown by age group (Karen refugees have high rates of nutritional deficiencies and infectious diseases and may be susceptible to vaccine preventable diseases. These data support the need for post-arrival health screening and accessible, funded catch-up immunisation.

  17. Electricity Futures Prices : Time Varying Sensitivity to Fundamentals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S-E. Fleten (Stein-Erik); R. Huisman (Ronald); M. Kilic (Mehtap); H.P.G. Pennings (Enrico); S. Westgaard (Sjur)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractThis paper provides insight in the time-varying relation between electricity futures prices and fundamentals in the form of prices of contracts for fossil fuels. As supply curves are not constant and different producers have different marginal costs of production, we argue that the

  18. Discrete-Time Sliding-Mode Control of Uncertain Systems with Time-Varying Delays via Descriptor Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maode Yan

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the problem of robust discrete-time sliding-mode control (DT-SMC design for a class of uncertain linear systems with time-varying delays. By applying a descriptor model transformation and Moon's inequality for bounding cross terms, a delay-dependent sufficient condition for the existence of stable sliding surface is given in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs. Based on this existence condition, the synthesized sliding mode controller can guarantee the sliding-mode reaching condition of the specified discrete-time sliding surface for all admissible uncertainties and time-varying delays. An illustrative example verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  19. Timing analysis for embedded systems using non-preemptive EDF scheduling under bounded error arrivals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Short

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Embedded systems consist of one or more processing units which are completely encapsulated by the devices under their control, and they often have stringent timing constraints associated with their functional specification. Previous research has considered the performance of different types of task scheduling algorithm and developed associated timing analysis techniques for such systems. Although preemptive scheduling techniques have traditionally been favored, rapid increases in processor speeds combined with improved insights into the behavior of non-preemptive scheduling techniques have seen an increased interest in their use for real-time applications such as multimedia, automation and control. However when non-preemptive scheduling techniques are employed there is a potential lack of error confinement should any timing errors occur in individual software tasks. In this paper, the focus is upon adding fault tolerance in systems using non-preemptive deadline-driven scheduling. Schedulability conditions are derived for fault-tolerant periodic and sporadic task sets experiencing bounded error arrivals under non-preemptive deadline scheduling. A timing analysis algorithm is presented based upon these conditions and its run-time properties are studied. Computational experiments show it to be highly efficient in terms of run-time complexity and competitive ratio when compared to previous approaches.

  20. Arrival times of Flare/Halo CME associated shocks at the Earth: comparison of the predictions of three numerical models with these observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. P. McKenna-Lawlor

    Full Text Available The arrival times at L1 of eleven travelling shocks associated both with X-ray flaring and with halo CMEs recorded aboard SOHO/LASCO have been considered. Close to the Sun the velocities of these events were estimated using either Type II radio records or CME speeds. Close to the Earth the shocks were detected in the data of various solar wind plasma, interplanetary magnetic field (IMF and energetic particle experiments aboard SOHO, ACE, WIND, INTERBALL-1 and IMP-8. The real-time shock arrival predictions of three numerical models, namely the Shock Time of Arrival Model (STOA, the Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model (ISPM and the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry Solar Wind Model (HAFv.2 were tested against these observations. This is the first time that energetic protons (tens of keV to a few MeV have been used to complement plasma and IMF data in validating shock propagation models. The models were all generally successful in predicting shock arrivals. STOA provided the smallest values of the "predicted minus measured" arrival times and displayed a typical predictive precision better than about 8 h. The ratio of the calculated standard deviation of the transit times to Earth to the standard deviation of the measurements was estimated for each model (treating interacting events as composite shocks and these ratios turned out to be 0.60, 1.15 and 1.02 for STOA, ISPM and HAFv.2, respectively. If an event in the sample for which the shock velocity was not well known is omitted from consideration, these ratios become 0.36, 0.76 and 0.81, respectively. Larger statistical samples should now be tested. The ratio of the in situ shock velocity and the "Sun to L1" transit velocity (Vsh /Vtr was in the range of 0.7–0.9 for individual, non-interacting, shock events. HAFv.2 uniquely provided information on those changes in the COBpoint (the moving Connection point on the shock along the IMF to the OBserver which directly influenced energetic

  1. Synchronization of uncertain time-varying network based on sliding mode control technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lü, Ling; Li, Chengren; Bai, Suyuan; Li, Gang; Rong, Tingting; Gao, Yan; Yan, Zhe

    2017-09-01

    We research synchronization of uncertain time-varying network based on sliding mode control technique. The sliding mode control technique is first modified so that it can be applied to network synchronization. Further, by choosing the appropriate sliding surface, the identification law of uncertain parameter, the adaptive law of the time-varying coupling matrix element and the control input of network are designed, it is sure that the uncertain time-varying network can synchronize effectively the synchronization target. At last, we perform some numerical simulations to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed results.

  2. Real-time forecasting of ICME shock arrivals at L1 during the "April Fool’s Day" epoch: 28 March – 21 April 2001

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Sun

    Full Text Available The Sun was extremely active during the "April Fool’s Day" epoch of 2001. We chose this period between a solar flare on 28 March 2001 to a final shock arrival at Earth on 21 April 2001. The activity consisted of two presumed helmet-streamer blowouts, seven M-class flares, and nine X-class flares, the last of which was behind the west limb. We have been experimenting since February 1997 with real-time, end-to-end forecasting of interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME shock arrival times. Since August 1998, these forecasts have been distributed in real-time by e-mail to a list of interested scientists and operational USAF and NOAA forecasters. They are made using three different solar wind models. We describe here the solar events observed during the April Fool’s 2001 epoch, along with the predicted and actual shock arrival times, and the ex post facto correction to the real-time coronal shock speed observations. It appears that the initial estimates of coronal shock speeds from Type II radio burst observations and coronal mass ejections were too high by as much as 30%. We conclude that a 3-dimensional coronal density model should be developed for application to observations of solar flares and their Type II radio burst observations.

    Key words. Interplanetary physics (flare and stream dynamics; interplanetary shocks – Magnetosheric physics (storms and substorms

  3. The Young-Feynman two-slits experiment with single electrons: Build-up of the interference pattern and arrival-time distribution using a fast-readout pixel detector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frabboni, Stefano [Department of Physics, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Via G. Campi 213/a, 41125 Modena (Italy); CNR-Institute of Nanoscience-S3, Via G. Campi 213/a, 41125 Modena (Italy); Gabrielli, Alessandro [Department of Physics, University of Bologna, Viale B. Pichat 6/2, 40127 Bologna (Italy); INFN, Viale B. Pichat 6/2, 40127 Bologna (Italy); Carlo Gazzadi, Gian [CNR-Institute of Nanoscience-S3, Via G. Campi 213/a, 41125 Modena (Italy); Giorgi, Filippo [Department of Physics, University of Bologna, Viale B. Pichat 6/2, 40127 Bologna (Italy); INFN, Viale B. Pichat 6/2, 40127 Bologna (Italy); Matteucci, Giorgio [Department of Physics, University of Bologna, Viale B. Pichat 6/2, 40127 Bologna (Italy); Pozzi, Giulio, E-mail: giulio.pozzi@unibo.it [Department of Physics, University of Bologna, Viale B. Pichat 6/2, 40127 Bologna (Italy); Cesari, Nicola Semprini; Villa, Mauro; Zoccoli, Antonio [Department of Physics, University of Bologna, Viale B. Pichat 6/2, 40127 Bologna (Italy); INFN, Viale B. Pichat 6/2, 40127 Bologna (Italy)

    2012-05-15

    The two-slits experiment for single electrons has been carried out by inserting in a conventional transmission electron microscope a thick sample with two nano-slits fabricated by Focused Ion Beam technique and a fast recording system able to measure the electron arrival-time. The detector, designed for experiments in future colliders, is based on a custom CMOS chip equipped with a fast readout chain able to manage up to 10{sup 6} frames per second. In this way, high statistic samples of single electron events can be collected within a time interval short enough to measure the distribution of the electron arrival-times and to observe the build-up of the interference pattern. -- Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present the first results obtained regarding the two-slits Young-Feynman experiment with single electrons. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We use two nano-slits fabricated by Focused Ion Beam technique. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We insert in the transmission electron microscope a detector, designed for experiments in future colliders. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We record the build-up of high statistic single electron interference patterns. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We measure the time distribution of electron arrivals.

  4. Conceptual Modeling of Time-Varying Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Heidi; Jensen, Christian S.

    2004-01-01

    A wide range of database applications manage information that varies over time. Many of the underlying database schemas of these were designed using the Entity-Relationship (ER) model. In the research community as well as in industry, it is common knowledge that the temporal aspects of the mini......-world are important, but difficult to capture using the ER model. Several enhancements to the ER model have been proposed in an attempt to support the modeling of temporal aspects of information. Common to the existing temporally extended ER models, few or no specific requirements to the models were given...

  5. A time-varying magnetic flux concentrator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kibret, B; Premaratne, M; Lewis, P M; Thomson, R; Fitzgerald, P B

    2016-01-01

    It is known that diverse technological applications require the use of focused magnetic fields. This has driven the quest for controlling the magnetic field. Recently, the principles in transformation optics and metamaterials have allowed the realization of practical static magnetic flux concentrators. Extending such progress, here, we propose a time-varying magnetic flux concentrator cylindrical shell that uses electric conductors and ferromagnetic materials to guide magnetic flux to its center. Its performance is discussed based on finite-element simulation results. Our proposed design has potential applications in magnetic sensors, medical devices, wireless power transfer, and near-field wireless communications. (paper)

  6. On Regularly Varying and History-Dependent Convergence Rates of Solutions of a Volterra Equation with Infinite Memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Appleby JohnAD

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider the rate of convergence to equilibrium of Volterra integrodifferential equations with infinite memory. We show that if the kernel of Volterra operator is regularly varying at infinity, and the initial history is regularly varying at minus infinity, then the rate of convergence to the equilibrium is regularly varying at infinity, and the exact pointwise rate of convergence can be determined in terms of the rate of decay of the kernel and the rate of growth of the initial history. The result is considered both for a linear Volterra integrodifferential equation as well as for the delay logistic equation from population biology.

  7. Electron dynamics in solid state via time varying wavevectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khaneja, Navin

    2018-06-01

    In this paper, we study electron wavepacket dynamics in electric and magnetic fields. We rigorously derive the semiclassical equations of electron dynamics in electric and magnetic fields. We do it both for free electron and electron in a periodic potential. We do this by introducing time varying wavevectors k(t). In the presence of magnetic field, our wavepacket reproduces the classical cyclotron orbits once the origin of the Schröedinger equation is correctly chosen to be center of cyclotron orbit. In the presence of both electric and magnetic fields, our equations for wavepacket dynamics differ from classical Lorentz force equations. We show that in a periodic potential, on application of electric field, the electron wave function adiabatically follows the wavefunction of a time varying Bloch wavevector k(t), with its energies suitably shifted with time. We derive the effective mass equation and discuss conduction in conductors and insulators.

  8. Global stabilization of linear continuous time-varying systems with bounded controls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phat, V.N.

    2004-08-01

    This paper deals with the problem of global stabilization of a class of linear continuous time-varying systems with bounded controls. Based on the controllability of the nominal system, a sufficient condition for the global stabilizability is proposed without solving any Riccati differential equation. Moreover, we give sufficient conditions for the robust stabilizability of perturbation/uncertain linear time-varying systems with bounded controls. (author)

  9. Nitrous oxide emissions in Midwest US maize production vary widely with band-injected N fertilizer rates, timing and nitrapyrin presence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burzaco, Juan P.; Smith, Doug R.; Vyn, Tony J.

    2013-09-01

    Nitrification inhibitors have the potential to reduce N2O emissions from maize fields, but optimal results may depend on deployment of integrated N fertilizer management systems that increase yields achieved per unit of N2O lost. A new micro-encapsulated formulation of nitrapyrin for liquid N fertilizers became available to US farmers in 2010. Our research objectives were to (i) assess the impacts of urea-ammonium nitrate (UAN) management practices (timing, rate and nitrification inhibitor) and environmental variables on growing-season N2O fluxes and (ii) identify UAN treatment combinations that both reduce N2O emissions and optimize maize productivity. Field experiments near West Lafayette, Indiana in 2010 and 2011 examined three N rates (0, 90 and 180 kg N ha-1), two timings (pre-emergence and side-dress) and presence or absence of nitrapyrin. Mean cumulative N2O-N emissions (Q10 corrected) were 0.81, 1.83 and 3.52 kg N2O-N ha-1 for the rates of 0, 90 and 180 kg N ha-1, respectively; 1.80 and 2.31 kg N2O-N ha-1 for pre-emergence and side-dress timings, respectively; and 1.77 versus 2.34 kg N2O-N ha-1 for with and without nitrapyrin, respectively. Yield-scaled N2O-N emissions increased with N rates as anticipated (averaging 167, 204 and 328 g N2O-N Mg grain-1 for the 0, 90 and 180 kg N ha-1 rates), but were 22% greater with the side-dress timing than the pre-emergence timing (when averaged across N rates and inhibitor treatments) because of environmental conditions following later applications. Overall yield-scaled N2O-N emissions were 22% lower with nitrapyrin than without the inhibitor, but these did not interact with N rate or timing.

  10. An integrative time-varying frequency detection and channel sounding method for dynamic plasma sheath

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Lei; Yao, Bo; Zhao, Lei; Liu, Xiaotong; Yang, Min; Liu, Yanming

    2018-01-01

    The plasma sheath-surrounded hypersonic vehicle is a dynamic and time-varying medium and it is almost impossible to calculate time-varying physical parameters directly. The in-fight detection of the time-varying degree is important to understand the dynamic nature of the physical parameters and their effect on re-entry communication. In this paper, a constant envelope zero autocorrelation (CAZAC) sequence based on time-varying frequency detection and channel sounding method is proposed to detect the plasma sheath electronic density time-varying property and wireless channel characteristic. The proposed method utilizes the CAZAC sequence, which has excellent autocorrelation and spread gain characteristics, to realize dynamic time-varying detection/channel sounding under low signal-to-noise ratio in the plasma sheath environment. Theoretical simulation under a typical time-varying radio channel shows that the proposed method is capable of detecting time-variation frequency up to 200 kHz and can trace the channel amplitude and phase in the time domain well under -10 dB. Experimental results conducted in the RF modulation discharge plasma device verified the time variation detection ability in practical dynamic plasma sheath. Meanwhile, nonlinear phenomenon of dynamic plasma sheath on communication signal is observed thorough channel sounding result.

  11. Investigation of Bicycle Travel Time Estimation Using Bluetooth Sensors for Low Sampling Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenyu Mei

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Filtering the data for bicycle travel time using Bluetooth sensors is crucial to the estimation of link travel times on a corridor. The current paper describes an adaptive filtering algorithm for estimating bicycle travel times using Bluetooth data, with consideration of low sampling rates. The data for bicycle travel time using Bluetooth sensors has two characteristics. First, the bicycle flow contains stable and unstable conditions. Second, the collected data have low sampling rates (less than 1%. To avoid erroneous inference, filters are introduced to “purify” multiple time series. The valid data are identified within a dynamically varying validity window with the use of a robust data-filtering procedure. The size of the validity window varies based on the number of preceding sampling intervals without a Bluetooth record. Applications of the proposed algorithm to the dataset from Genshan East Road and Moganshan Road in Hangzhou demonstrate its ability to track typical variations in bicycle travel time efficiently, while suppressing high frequency noise signals.

  12. Detection of time of arrival of ultrasonic pulses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Latino, Carl D; Andersen, Niels Lervad; Voss, Frands

    2006-01-01

    Applications exist that employ transit-time measurements to determine distances to scattering objects. These include blood-flow measurements, fluid-level detection, nondestructive testing of materials, image processing of geometrical bodies etc. Many of these require extreme accuracy in measuring transit time through a medium. The system typically consists of a transmitter, a medium and a receiver. The signal sent must operate within the limitations imposed by this overall system. Under ideal conditions a finite duration pulse consisting of a sinusoidal signal is sent and received. If the transmitted signal contains an integer number of complete cycles of a single frequency, performing a correlation between transmitted and received signals can accurately recover the transit time information. The method has difficulties especially in the presence of noise. The problem is compounded if the desired accuracy is a small fraction of a single sinusoid period. Noise could cause the correlation results to be off by a complete cycle. For a one MHz signal, one cycle error corresponds to a one microsecond error. For applications requiring nanosecond accuracy, this is not acceptable. Varying the frequency content of the signal reduces the error but requires that the transmitter, receiver and medium all have a broader band spectrum. The improvements we propose here work within a narrow band while enhancing the chance of recovering the signal accurately

  13. Finite-Time Reentry Attitude Control Using Time-Varying Sliding Mode and Disturbance Observer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuzhong Wu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the finite-time attitude control problem for reentry vehicle with redundant actuators in consideration of planet uncertainties and external disturbances. Firstly, feedback linearization technique is used to cancel the nonlinearities of equations of motion to construct a basic mode for attitude controller. Secondly, two kinds of time-varying sliding mode control methods with disturbance observer are integrated with the basic mode in order to enhance the control performance and system robustness. One method is designed based on boundary layer technique and the other is a novel second-order sliding model control method. The finite-time stability analyses of both resultant closed-loop systems are carried out. Furthermore, after attitude controller produces the torque commands, an optimization control allocation approach is introduced to allocate them into aerodynamic surface deflections and on-off reaction control system thrusts. Finally, the numerical simulation results demonstrate that both of the time-varying sliding mode control methods are robust to uncertainties and disturbances without chattering phenomenon. Moreover, the proposed second-order sliding mode control method possesses better control accuracy.

  14. Healthcare System Information at Language Schools for Newly Arrived Immigrants: A Pertinent Setting in Times of Austerity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tynell, Lena Lyngholt; Wimmelmann, Camilla Lawaetz; Jervelund, Signe Smith

    2017-01-01

    Objective: In most European countries, immigrants do not systematically learn about the host countries' healthcare system when arriving. This study investigated how newly arrived immigrants perceived the information they received about the Danish healthcare system. Methods: Immigrants attending a language school in Copenhagen in 2012 received…

  15. Finite-time and fixed-time synchronization analysis of inertial memristive neural networks with time-varying delays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Ruoyu; Cao, Jinde; Alsaedi, Ahmed

    2018-02-01

    This paper investigates the finite-time synchronization and fixed-time synchronization problems of inertial memristive neural networks with time-varying delays. By utilizing the Filippov discontinuous theory and Lyapunov stability theory, several sufficient conditions are derived to ensure finite-time synchronization of inertial memristive neural networks. Then, for the purpose of making the setting time independent of initial condition, we consider the fixed-time synchronization. A novel criterion guaranteeing the fixed-time synchronization of inertial memristive neural networks is derived. Finally, three examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of our main results.

  16. Variable uplift rate through time: Holocene coral reef and neotectonics of Lutao, eastern Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Chuan-Chou; Wu, Chung-Che; Dai, Chang-Feng; Gong, Shou-Yeh

    2018-05-01

    Significant discrepancies have existed regarding rate and timing of the uplift of Lutao (Green Island), located at the border of the ongoing collision between the Eurasia continental plate and the Philippine Sea Plate. To document its neotectonic history, two cores were drilled into Holocene coral reefs exposed at the southeastern coast of Lutao. Twelve pristine fossil corals, nine taken from cores and three on the surface, were 230Th dated. The results show that the coral reefs started to develop at 8,736 ± 56 yr BP (before 1950 CE) with uplift rate varying from 3.6 mm/yr during 8.7-6.0 kyr BP to 1.2 mm/yr in the past six thousand years. Our study strongly suggests that the uplift rate can vary significantly on millennial time scale. Caution should be used when extrapolating uplift rate estimates based on Mid-late Holocene corals to early times for tectonic active locations, such as Lutao.

  17. A statistical study of the performance of the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 numerical model in predicting solar shock arrival times at Earth during different phases of solar cycle 23

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McKenna-Lawlor, S.M.P. [National Univ. of Ireland, Maynooth, Co. Kildare (Ireland). Space Technology Ireland; Fry, C.D. [Exploration Physics International, Inc., Huntsville, AL (United States); Dryer, M. [Exploration Physics International, Inc., Huntsville, AL (United States); NOAA Space Environment Center, Boulder, CO (United States); Heynderickx, D. [D-H Consultancy, Leuven (Belgium); Kecskemety, K. [KFKI Research Institute for Particle and Nuclear Physics, Budapest (Hungary); Kudela, K. [Institute of Experimental Physics, Kosice (Slovakia); Balaz, J. [National Univ. of Ireland, Maynooth, Co. Kildare (Ireland). Space Technology Ireland; Institute of Experimental Physics, Kosice (Slovakia)

    2012-07-01

    The performance of the Hakamada Akasofu-Fry, version 2 (HAFv.2) numerical model, which provides predictions of solar shock arrival times at Earth, was subjected to a statistical study to investigate those solar/interplanetary circumstances under which the model performed well/poorly during key phases (rise/maximum/decay) of solar cycle 23. In addition to analyzing elements of the overall data set (584 selected events) associated with particular cycle phases, subsets were formed such that those events making up a particular sub-set showed common characteristics. The statistical significance of the results obtained using the various sets/subsets was generally very low and these results were not significant as compared with the hit by chance rate (50 %). This implies a low level of confidence in the predictions of the model with no compelling result encouraging its use. However, the data suggested that the success rates of HAFv.2 were higher when the background solar wind speed at the time of shock initiation was relatively fast. Thus, in scenarios where the background solar wind speed is elevated and the calculated success rate significantly exceeds the rate by chance, the forecasts could provide potential value to the customer. With the composite statistics available for solar cycle 23, the calculated success rate at high solar wind speed, although clearly above 50 %, was indicative rather than conclusive. The RMS error estimated for shock arrival times for every cycle phase and for the composite sample was in each case significantly better than would be expected for a random data set. Also, the parameter ''Probability of Detection, yes'' (PODy) which presents the Proportion of Yes observations that were correctly forecast (i.e. the ratio between the shocks correctly predicted and all the shocks observed), yielded values for the rise/maximum/decay phases of the cycle and using the composite sample of 0.85, 0.64, 0.79 and 0.77, respectively. The

  18. A statistical study of the performance of the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 numerical model in predicting solar shock arrival times at Earth during different phases of solar cycle 23

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. P. McKenna-Lawlor

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The performance of the Hakamada Akasofu-Fry, version 2 (HAFv.2 numerical model, which provides predictions of solar shock arrival times at Earth, was subjected to a statistical study to investigate those solar/interplanetary circumstances under which the model performed well/poorly during key phases (rise/maximum/decay of solar cycle 23. In addition to analyzing elements of the overall data set (584 selected events associated with particular cycle phases, subsets were formed such that those events making up a particular sub-set showed common characteristics. The statistical significance of the results obtained using the various sets/subsets was generally very low and these results were not significant as compared with the hit by chance rate (50%. This implies a low level of confidence in the predictions of the model with no compelling result encouraging its use. However, the data suggested that the success rates of HAFv.2 were higher when the background solar wind speed at the time of shock initiation was relatively fast. Thus, in scenarios where the background solar wind speed is elevated and the calculated success rate significantly exceeds the rate by chance, the forecasts could provide potential value to the customer. With the composite statistics available for solar cycle 23, the calculated success rate at high solar wind speed, although clearly above 50%, was indicative rather than conclusive. The RMS error estimated for shock arrival times for every cycle phase and for the composite sample was in each case significantly better than would be expected for a random data set. Also, the parameter "Probability of Detection, yes" (PODy which presents the Proportion of Yes observations that were correctly forecast (i.e. the ratio between the shocks correctly predicted and all the shocks observed, yielded values for the rise/maximum/decay phases of the cycle and using the composite sample of 0.85, 0.64, 0.79 and 0.77, respectively. The statistical

  19. Pickup design for high bandwidth bunch arrival-time monitors in free-electron lasers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Angelovski, Aleksandar; Penirschke, Andreas; Jakoby, Rolf [TU Darmstadt (Germany). Institut fuer Mikrowellentechnik und Photonik; Kuhl, Alexander; Schnepp, Sascha [TU Darmstadt (Germany). Graduate School of Computational Engineering; Bock, Marie Kristin; Bousonville, Michael; Schlarb, Holger [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron DESY, Hamburg (Germany); Weiland, Thomas [TU Darmstadt (Germany). Institut fuer Theorie Elektromagnetischer Felder

    2012-07-01

    The increased demands for low bunch charge operation mode in the free-electron lasers (FELs) require an upgrade of the existing synchronization equipment. As a part of the laser-based synchronization system, the bunch arrival-time monitors (BAMs) should have a sub-10 femtosecond precision for high and low bunch charge operation. In order to fulfill the resolution demands for both modes of operation, the bandwidth of such a BAM should be increased up to a cutoff frequency of 40 GHz. In this talk, we present the design and the realization of high bandwidth cone-shaped pickup electrodes as a part of the BAM for the FEL in Hamburg (FLASH) and the European X-ray free-electron laser (European XFEL). The proposed pickup was simulated with CST STUDIO SUITE, and a non-hermetic model was built up for radio frequency (rf) measurements.

  20. Computational procedure of optimal inventory model involving controllable backorder rate and variable lead time with defective units

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Wen-Chuan; Wu, Jong-Wuu; Tsou, Hsin-Hui; Lei, Chia-Ling

    2012-10-01

    This article considers that the number of defective units in an arrival order is a binominal random variable. We derive a modified mixture inventory model with backorders and lost sales, in which the order quantity and lead time are decision variables. In our studies, we also assume that the backorder rate is dependent on the length of lead time through the amount of shortages and let the backorder rate be a control variable. In addition, we assume that the lead time demand follows a mixture of normal distributions, and then relax the assumption about the form of the mixture of distribution functions of the lead time demand and apply the minimax distribution free procedure to solve the problem. Furthermore, we develop an algorithm procedure to obtain the optimal ordering strategy for each case. Finally, three numerical examples are also given to illustrate the results.

  1. Vector-field statistics for the analysis of time varying clinical gait data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly, C J; Alexander, C; Pataky, T C; Stannage, K; Reid, S; Robinson, M A

    2017-01-01

    In clinical settings, the time varying analysis of gait data relies heavily on the experience of the individual(s) assessing these biological signals. Though three dimensional kinematics are recognised as time varying waveforms (1D), exploratory statistical analysis of these data are commonly carried out with multiple discrete or 0D dependent variables. In the absence of an a priori 0D hypothesis, clinicians are at risk of making type I and II errors in their analyis of time varying gait signatures in the event statistics are used in concert with prefered subjective clinical assesment methods. The aim of this communication was to determine if vector field waveform statistics were capable of providing quantitative corroboration to practically significant differences in time varying gait signatures as determined by two clinically trained gait experts. The case study was a left hemiplegic Cerebral Palsy (GMFCS I) gait patient following a botulinum toxin (BoNT-A) injection to their left gastrocnemius muscle. When comparing subjective clinical gait assessments between two testers, they were in agreement with each other for 61% of the joint degrees of freedom and phases of motion analysed. For tester 1 and tester 2, they were in agreement with the vector-field analysis for 78% and 53% of the kinematic variables analysed. When the subjective analyses of tester 1 and tester 2 were pooled together and then compared to the vector-field analysis, they were in agreement for 83% of the time varying kinematic variables analysed. These outcomes demonstrate that in principle, vector-field statistics corroborates with what a team of clinical gait experts would classify as practically meaningful pre- versus post time varying kinematic differences. The potential for vector-field statistics to be used as a useful clinical tool for the objective analysis of time varying clinical gait data is established. Future research is recommended to assess the usefulness of vector-field analyses

  2. Time-varying economic dominance in financial markets: A bistable dynamics approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xue-Zhong; Li, Kai; Wang, Chuncheng

    2018-05-01

    By developing a continuous-time heterogeneous agent financial market model of multi-assets traded by fundamental and momentum investors, we provide a potential mechanism for generating time-varying dominance between fundamental and non-fundamental in financial markets. We show that investment constraints lead to the coexistence of a locally stable fundamental steady state and a locally stable limit cycle around the fundamental, characterized by a Bautin bifurcation. This provides a mechanism for market prices to switch stochastically between the two persistent but very different market states, leading to the coexistence and time-varying dominance of seemingly controversial efficient market and price momentum over different time periods. The model also generates other financial market stylized facts, such as spillover effects in both momentum and volatility, market booms, crashes, and correlation reduction due to cross-sectional momentum trading. Empirical evidence based on the U.S. market supports the main findings. The mechanism developed in this paper can be used to characterize time-varying economic dominance in economics and finance in general.

  3. Optimal critic learning for robot control in time-varying environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chen; Li, Yanan; Ge, Shuzhi Sam; Lee, Tong Heng

    2015-10-01

    In this paper, optimal critic learning is developed for robot control in a time-varying environment. The unknown environment is described as a linear system with time-varying parameters, and impedance control is employed for the interaction control. Desired impedance parameters are obtained in the sense of an optimal realization of the composite of trajectory tracking and force regulation. Q -function-based critic learning is developed to determine the optimal impedance parameters without the knowledge of the system dynamics. The simulation results are presented and compared with existing methods, and the efficacy of the proposed method is verified.

  4. Fault zone structure determined through the analysis of earthquake arrival times

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michelini, Alberto [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    1991-10-01

    This thesis develops and applies a technique for the simultaneous determination of P and S wave velocity models and hypocenters from a set of arrival times. The velocity models are parameterized in terms of cubic B-splines basis functions which permit the retrieval of smooth models that can be used directly for generation of synthetic seismograms using the ray method. In addition, this type of smoothing limits the rise of instabilities related to the poor resolving power of the data. VP/VS ratios calculated from P and S models display generally instabilities related to the different ray-coverages of compressional and shear waves. However, VP/VS ratios are important for correct identification of rock types and this study introduces a new methodology based on adding some coupling (i.e., proportionality) between P and S models which stabilizes the VP/VS models around some average preset value determined from the data. Tests of the technique with synthetic data show that this additional coupling regularizes effectively the resulting models.

  5. Quasi-Birth-and-Death Processes with Rational Arrival Process Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bean, Nigel G.; Nielsen, Bo Friis

    2010-01-01

    This paper introduces the concept of a Quasi-Birth-and-Death process (QBD) with Rational Arrival Process (RAP) components. We use the physical interpretation of the prediction process of the RAP, developed by Asmussen and Bladt, and develop an analysis that parallels the analysis of a traditional...... QBD. Further, we present an algorithm for the numerical evaluation of the matrix G. As an example, we consider two queues where the arrival process and the sequence of service times are taken from two dependent RAPs, that are not Markovian Arrival Processes......This paper introduces the concept of a Quasi-Birth-and-Death process (QBD) with Rational Arrival Process (RAP) components. We use the physical interpretation of the prediction process of the RAP, developed by Asmussen and Bladt, and develop an analysis that parallels the analysis of a traditional...

  6. Hong-Ou-Mandel effect in terms of the temporal biphoton wave function with two arrival-time variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedorov, M. V.; Sysoeva, A. A.; Vintskevich, S. V.; Grigoriev, D. A.

    2018-03-01

    The well-known Hong-Ou-Mandel effect is revisited. Two physical reasons are discussed for the effect to be less pronounced or even to disappear: differing polarizations of photons coming to the beamsplitter and delay time of photons in one of two channels. For the latter we use the concepts of biphoton frequency and temporal wave functions depending, correspondingly, on two frequency continuous variables of photons and on two time variables t 1 and t 2 interpreted as the arrival times of photons to the beamsplitter. Explicit expressions are found for the probability densities and total probabilities for photon pairs to be split between two channels after the beamsplitter and to be unsplit, when two photons appear together in one of two channels.

  7. A Comparison of High Frequency Angle of Arrival and Ionosonde Data During a Traveling Ionospheric Disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knippling, K.; Nava, O.; Emmons, D. J., II; Dao, E. V.

    2017-12-01

    Geolocation techniques are used to track the source of uncooperative high frequency emitters. Traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) make geolocation particularly difficult due to large perturbations in the local ionospheric electron density profiles. Angle of arrival(AoA) and ionosonde virtual height measurements collected at White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico in January, 2014 are analyzed during a medium scale TID (MSTID). MSTID characteristics are extracted from the measurements, and a comparison between the data sets is performed, providing a measure of the correlation as a function of distance between the ionosonde and AoA circuit midpoints. The results of this study may advance real-time geolocation techniques through the implementation of a time varying mirror model height.

  8. Prediction of late/early arrivals in container terminals - A qualitative approach

    OpenAIRE

    Pani, C.; Vanelslander, T.; Fancello, G.; Cannas, M.

    2015-01-01

    Vessel arrival uncertainty in ports has become a very common problem worldwide. Although ship operators have to notify the Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) at predetermined time intervals, they frequently have to update the latest ETA due to unforeseen circumstances. This causes a series of inconveniences that often impact on the efficiency of terminal operations, especially in the daily planning scenario. Thus, for our study we adopted a machine learning approach in order to provide a qualita...

  9. Nitrous oxide emissions in Midwest US maize production vary widely with band-injected N fertilizer rates, timing and nitrapyrin presence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burzaco, Juan P; Vyn, Tony J; Smith, Doug R

    2013-01-01

    Nitrification inhibitors have the potential to reduce N 2 O emissions from maize fields, but optimal results may depend on deployment of integrated N fertilizer management systems that increase yields achieved per unit of N 2 O lost. A new micro-encapsulated formulation of nitrapyrin for liquid N fertilizers became available to US farmers in 2010. Our research objectives were to (i) assess the impacts of urea–ammonium nitrate (UAN) management practices (timing, rate and nitrification inhibitor) and environmental variables on growing-season N 2 O fluxes and (ii) identify UAN treatment combinations that both reduce N 2 O emissions and optimize maize productivity. Field experiments near West Lafayette, Indiana in 2010 and 2011 examined three N rates (0, 90 and 180 kg N ha −1 ), two timings (pre-emergence and side-dress) and presence or absence of nitrapyrin. Mean cumulative N 2 O–N emissions (Q 10 corrected) were 0.81, 1.83 and 3.52 kg N 2 O–N ha −1 for the rates of 0, 90 and 180 kg N ha −1 , respectively; 1.80 and 2.31 kg N 2 O–N ha −1 for pre-emergence and side-dress timings, respectively; and 1.77 versus 2.34 kg N 2 O–N ha −1 for with and without nitrapyrin, respectively. Yield-scaled N 2 O–N emissions increased with N rates as anticipated (averaging 167, 204 and 328 g N 2 O–N Mg grain −1 for the 0, 90 and 180 kg N ha −1 rates), but were 22% greater with the side-dress timing than the pre-emergence timing (when averaged across N rates and inhibitor treatments) because of environmental conditions following later applications. Overall yield-scaled N 2 O–N emissions were 22% lower with nitrapyrin than without the inhibitor, but these did not interact with N rate or timing. (letter)

  10. A multiscale MDCT image-based breathing lung model with time-varying regional ventilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Youbing; Choi, Jiwoong; Hoffman, Eric A.; Tawhai, Merryn H.; Lin, Ching-Long

    2012-01-01

    A novel algorithm is presented that links local structural variables (regional ventilation and deforming central airways) to global function (total lung volume) in the lung over three imaged lung volumes, to derive a breathing lung model for computational fluid dynamics simulation. The algorithm constitutes the core of an integrative, image-based computational framework for subject-specific simulation of the breathing lung. For the first time, the algorithm is applied to three multi-detector row computed tomography (MDCT) volumetric lung images of the same individual. A key technique in linking global and local variables over multiple images is an in-house mass-preserving image registration method. Throughout breathing cycles, cubic interpolation is employed to ensure C1 continuity in constructing time-varying regional ventilation at the whole lung level, flow rate fractions exiting the terminal airways, and airway deformation. The imaged exit airway flow rate fractions are derived from regional ventilation with the aid of a three-dimensional (3D) and one-dimensional (1D) coupled airway tree that connects the airways to the alveolar tissue. An in-house parallel large-eddy simulation (LES) technique is adopted to capture turbulent-transitional-laminar flows in both normal and deep breathing conditions. The results obtained by the proposed algorithm when using three lung volume images are compared with those using only one or two volume images. The three-volume-based lung model produces physiologically-consistent time-varying pressure and ventilation distribution. The one-volume-based lung model under-predicts pressure drop and yields un-physiological lobar ventilation. The two-volume-based model can account for airway deformation and non-uniform regional ventilation to some extent, but does not capture the non-linear features of the lung. PMID:23794749

  11. A multiscale MDCT image-based breathing lung model with time-varying regional ventilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yin, Youbing, E-mail: youbing-yin@uiowa.edu [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Department of Radiology, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Choi, Jiwoong, E-mail: jiwoong-choi@uiowa.edu [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Hoffman, Eric A., E-mail: eric-hoffman@uiowa.edu [Department of Radiology, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Department of Biomedical Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Department of Internal Medicine, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Tawhai, Merryn H., E-mail: m.tawhai@auckland.ac.nz [Auckland Bioengineering Institute, The University of Auckland, Auckland (New Zealand); Lin, Ching-Long, E-mail: ching-long-lin@uiowa.edu [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States)

    2013-07-01

    A novel algorithm is presented that links local structural variables (regional ventilation and deforming central airways) to global function (total lung volume) in the lung over three imaged lung volumes, to derive a breathing lung model for computational fluid dynamics simulation. The algorithm constitutes the core of an integrative, image-based computational framework for subject-specific simulation of the breathing lung. For the first time, the algorithm is applied to three multi-detector row computed tomography (MDCT) volumetric lung images of the same individual. A key technique in linking global and local variables over multiple images is an in-house mass-preserving image registration method. Throughout breathing cycles, cubic interpolation is employed to ensure C{sub 1} continuity in constructing time-varying regional ventilation at the whole lung level, flow rate fractions exiting the terminal airways, and airway deformation. The imaged exit airway flow rate fractions are derived from regional ventilation with the aid of a three-dimensional (3D) and one-dimensional (1D) coupled airway tree that connects the airways to the alveolar tissue. An in-house parallel large-eddy simulation (LES) technique is adopted to capture turbulent-transitional-laminar flows in both normal and deep breathing conditions. The results obtained by the proposed algorithm when using three lung volume images are compared with those using only one or two volume images. The three-volume-based lung model produces physiologically-consistent time-varying pressure and ventilation distribution. The one-volume-based lung model under-predicts pressure drop and yields un-physiological lobar ventilation. The two-volume-based model can account for airway deformation and non-uniform regional ventilation to some extent, but does not capture the non-linear features of the lung.

  12. Sub-fs electron bunch generation with sub-10-fs bunch arrival-time jitter via bunch slicing in a magnetic chicane

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Zhu

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The generation of ultrashort electron bunches with ultrasmall bunch arrival-time jitter is of vital importance for laser-plasma wakefield acceleration with external injection. We study the production of 100-MeV electron bunches with bunch durations of subfemtosecond (fs and bunch arrival-time jitters of less than 10 fs, in an S-band photoinjector by using a weak magnetic chicane with a slit collimator. The beam dynamics inside the chicane is simulated by using two codes with different self-force models. The first code separates the self-force into a three-dimensional (3D quasistatic space-charge model and a one-dimensional coherent synchrotron radiation (CSR model, while the other one starts from the first principle with a so-called 3D sub-bunch method. The simulations indicate that the CSR effect dominates the horizontal emittance growth and the 1D CSR model underestimates the final bunch duration and emittance because of the very large transverse-to-longitudinal aspect ratio of the sub-fs bunch. Particularly, the CSR effect is also strongly affected by the vertical bunch size. Due to the coupling between the horizontal and longitudinal phase spaces, the bunch duration at the entrance of the last dipole magnet of the chicane is still significantly longer than that at the exit of the chicane, which considerably mitigates the impact of space charge and CSR effects on the beam quality. Exploiting this effect, a bunch charge of up to 4.8 pC in a sub-fs bunch could be simulated. In addition, we analytically and numerically investigate the impact of different jitter sources on the bunch arrival-time jitter downstream of the chicane, and define the tolerance budgets assuming realistic values of the stability of the linac for different bunch charges and compression schemes.

  13. Comparison of the CME-associated shock arrival times at the earth using the WSA-ENLIL model with three cone models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, S.; Moon, Y.; Na, H.

    2012-12-01

    We have made a comparison of CME-associated shock arrival times at the earth based on the WSA-ENLIL model with three cone models using 29 halo CMEs from 2001 to 2002. These halo CMEs have cone model parameters from Michalek et al. (2007) as well as their associated interplanetary (IP) shocks. For this study we consider three different cone models (an asymmetric cone model, an ice-cream cone model and an elliptical cone model) to determine CME cone parameters (radial velocity, angular width and source location), which are used for input parameters of the WSA-ENLIL model. The mean absolute error (MAE) of the arrival times for the elliptical cone model is 10 hours, which is about 2 hours smaller than those of the other models. However, this value is still larger than that (8.7 hours) of an empirical model by Kim et al. (2007). We are investigating several possibilities on relatively large errors of the WSA-ENLIL cone model, which may be caused by CME-CME interaction, background solar wind speed, and/or CME density enhancement.

  14. Time-varying and time-invariant dimensions of depression in children and adolescents: Implications for cross-informant agreement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, David A; Martin, Joan M; Jacquez, Farrah M; Tram, Jane M; Zelkowitz, Rachel; Nick, Elizabeth A; Rights, Jason D

    2017-07-01

    The longitudinal structure of depression in children and adolescents was examined by applying a Trait-State-Occasion structural equation model to 4 waves of self, teacher, peer, and parent reports in 2 age groups (9 to 13 and 13 to 16 years old). Analyses revealed that the depression latent variable consisted of 2 longitudinal factors: a time-invariant dimension that was completely stable over time and a time-varying dimension that was not perfectly stable over time. Different sources of information were differentially sensitive to these 2 dimensions. Among adolescents, self- and parent reports better reflected the time-invariant aspects. For children and adolescents, peer and teacher reports better reflected the time-varying aspects. Relatively high cross-informant agreement emerged for the time-invariant dimension in both children and adolescents. Cross-informant agreement for the time-varying dimension was high for adolescents but very low for children. Implications emerge for theoretical models of depression and for its measurement, especially when attempting to predict changes in depression in the context of longitudinal studies. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. PCA-based detection of damage in time-varying systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellino, A.; Fasana, A.; Garibaldi, L.; Marchesiello, S.

    2010-10-01

    When performing Structural Health Monitoring, it is well known that the natural frequencies do not depend only on the damage but also on environmental conditions, such as temperature and humidity. The Principal Component Analysis is used to take this problem into account, because it allows eliminating the effect of external factors. The purpose of the present work is to show that this technique can be successfully used not only for time-invariant systems, but also for time-varying ones. Referring to the latter, one of the most studied systems which shows these characteristics is the bridge with crossing loads, such as the case of the railway bridge studied in present paper; in this case, the mass and the velocity of the train can be considered as "environmental" factors.This paper, after a brief description of the PCA method and one example of its application on time-invariant systems, presents the great potentialities of the methodology when applied to time-varying systems. The results show that this method is able to better detect the presence of damage and also to properly distinguish among different levels of crack depths.

  16. Electro-optic sampling at 90 degree interaction geometry for time-of-arrival stamping of ultrafast relativistic electron diffraction

    OpenAIRE

    C. M. Scoby; P. Musumeci; J. T. Moody; M. S. Gutierrez

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we study a new geometry setup for electro-optic sampling (EOS) where the electron beam runs parallel to the ⟨110⟩ face of a ZnTe crystal and the probe laser is perpendicular to it and to the beam path. The simple setup is used to encode the time-of-arrival information of a 3.5  MeV

  17. Method for Establishing Direction of Arrival by Use of Signals of Opportunity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-29

    digital converter (ADC). The analog-to-digital converter sampling process that locks the relative time features of the digital signal processing...path and is sampled by the ADC. The ADC sampling process locks the relative time properties of the individual signals components arriving at...that signal. For each wave vector, the angles that define the direction of arrival are assumed to be identical at each RF port phase center in the

  18. On the synchronization of neural networks containing time-varying delays and sector nonlinearity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan, J.-J.; Lin, J.-S.; Hung, M.-L.; Liao, T.-L.

    2007-01-01

    We present a systematic design procedure for synchronization of neural networks subject to time-varying delays and sector nonlinearity in the control input. Based on the drive-response concept and the Lyapunov stability theorem, a memoryless decentralized control law is proposed which guarantees exponential synchronization even when input nonlinearity is present. The supplementary requirement that the time-derivative of time-varying delays must be smaller than one is released for the proposed control scheme. A four-dimensional Hopfield neural network with time-varying delays is presented as the illustrative example to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed synchronization scheme

  19. Asymptotic stability of discrete-time systems with time-varying delay subject to saturation nonlinearities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.-F.

    2009-01-01

    The asymptotic stability problem for discrete-time systems with time-varying delay subject to saturation nonlinearities is addressed in this paper. In terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), a delay-dependent sufficient condition is derived to ensure the asymptotic stability. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the theoretical results.

  20. Obtaining and utilizing contaminant arrival distributions in transient flow systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1977-01-01

    The versatility of the new contaminant arrival distributions for determining environmental consequences of subsurface pollution problems is demonstrated through application to a transient flow system. Though some of the four phases of the hydrologic evaluations are more complicated because of the time-dependence of the flow and input contaminant concentrations, the arrival distributions still effectively summarize the data required to determine the environmental implications. These arrival distributions yield two graphs or tabular sets of data giving the consequences of the subsurface pollution problems in a simple and direct form. Accordingly, the public control authorities would be able to use these results to choose alternatives or initiate corrective actions, depending on the indicated environmental consequences

  1. Testing and estimating time-varying elasticities of Swiss gasoline demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neto, David

    2012-01-01

    This paper is intended to test and estimate time-varying elasticities for gasoline demand in Switzerland. For this purpose, a smooth time-varying cointegrating parameters model is investigated in order to describe smooth mutations of the Swiss gasoline demand. The methodology, based on Chebyshev polynomials, is rigorously outlined. Our empirical finding states that the time-invariance assumption does not hold for long-run price and income elasticities. Furthermore they highlight that gasoline demand passed through some periods of sensitivity and non sensitivity with respect to the price. Our empirical statements are of great importance to assess the performance of a gasoline tax as an instrument for CO 2 reduction policy. Indeed, such an instrument can contribute to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases only if the demand is not fully inelastic with respect to the price. Our results suggest that such a carbon-tax would not be always suitable since the price elasticity is found not stable over time and not always significant.

  2. Amplitude and angle of arrival measurements on a 28.56 GHz Earth-space path

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devasirvatham, D. M. J.; Hodge, D. B.

    1981-01-01

    The amplitude and angle of arrival measurements on an Earth-space path using the 28.56 GHz COMSTAR D3 satellite beacon are described. These measurements were made by the Ohio State University ElectroScience Laboratory during the period September 1978 to September 1979. Monthly, quarterly, and annual distributions of attenuation, angle of arrival, and variance of both these parameters are reported. During this period, fades exceeding 29 dB for .00% of the time and angle of arrival fluctuations exceeding .12 degrees for .01% of the time were observed.

  3. Transformation of binaural response properties in the ascending auditory pathway: influence of time-varying interaural phase disparity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spitzer, M W; Semple, M N

    1998-12-01

    Transformation of binaural response properties in the ascending auditory pathway: influence of time-varying interaural phase disparity. J. Neurophysiol. 80: 3062-3076, 1998. Previous studies demonstrated that tuning of inferior colliculus (IC) neurons to interaural phase disparity (IPD) is often profoundly influenced by temporal variation of IPD, which simulates the binaural cue produced by a moving sound source. To determine whether sensitivity to simulated motion arises in IC or at an earlier stage of binaural processing we compared responses in IC with those of two major IPD-sensitive neuronal classes in the superior olivary complex (SOC), neurons whose discharges were phase locked (PL) to tonal stimuli and those that were nonphase locked (NPL). Time-varying IPD stimuli consisted of binaural beats, generated by presenting tones of slightly different frequencies to the two ears, and interaural phase modulation (IPM), generated by presenting a pure tone to one ear and a phase modulated tone to the other. IC neurons and NPL-SOC neurons were more sharply tuned to time-varying than to static IPD, whereas PL-SOC neurons were essentially uninfluenced by the mode of stimulus presentation. Preferred IPD was generally similar in responses to static and time-varying IPD for all unit populations. A few IC neurons were highly influenced by the direction and rate of simulated motion, but the major effect for most IC neurons and all SOC neurons was a linear shift of preferred IPD at high rates-attributable to response latency. Most IC and NPL-SOC neurons were strongly influenced by IPM stimuli simulating motion through restricted ranges of azimuth; simulated motion through partially overlapping azimuthal ranges elicited discharge profiles that were highly discontiguous, indicating that the response associated with a particular IPD is dependent on preceding portions of the stimulus. In contrast, PL-SOC responses tracked instantaneous IPD throughout the trajectory of simulated

  4. Transcriptional dynamics with time-dependent reaction rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nandi, Shubhendu; Ghosh, Anandamohan

    2015-02-01

    Transcription is the first step in the process of gene regulation that controls cell response to varying environmental conditions. Transcription is a stochastic process, involving synthesis and degradation of mRNAs, that can be modeled as a birth-death process. We consider a generic stochastic model, where the fluctuating environment is encoded in the time-dependent reaction rates. We obtain an exact analytical expression for the mRNA probability distribution and are able to analyze the response for arbitrary time-dependent protocols. Our analytical results and stochastic simulations confirm that the transcriptional machinery primarily act as a low-pass filter. We also show that depending on the system parameters, the mRNA levels in a cell population can show synchronous/asynchronous fluctuations and can deviate from Poisson statistics.

  5. Transcriptional dynamics with time-dependent reaction rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nandi, Shubhendu; Ghosh, Anandamohan

    2015-01-01

    Transcription is the first step in the process of gene regulation that controls cell response to varying environmental conditions. Transcription is a stochastic process, involving synthesis and degradation of mRNAs, that can be modeled as a birth–death process. We consider a generic stochastic model, where the fluctuating environment is encoded in the time-dependent reaction rates. We obtain an exact analytical expression for the mRNA probability distribution and are able to analyze the response for arbitrary time-dependent protocols. Our analytical results and stochastic simulations confirm that the transcriptional machinery primarily act as a low-pass filter. We also show that depending on the system parameters, the mRNA levels in a cell population can show synchronous/asynchronous fluctuations and can deviate from Poisson statistics. (paper)

  6. Time-varying associations between confidence and motivation to abstain from marijuana during treatment among adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Tammy; Maisto, Stephen A

    2016-06-01

    An important goal of addictions treatment is to develop a positive association between high levels of confidence and motivation to abstain from substance use. This study modeled the time-varying association between confidence and motivation to abstain from marijuana use among youth in treatment, and the time-varying effect of pre-treatment covariates (marijuana abstinence goal and perceived peer marijuana use) on motivation to abstain. 150 adolescents (75% male, 83% White) in community-based intensive outpatient treatment in Pennsylvania completed a pre-treatment assessment of abstinence goal, perceived peer marijuana use, and motivation and confidence to abstain from marijuana. Ratings of motivation and confidence to abstain also were collected after each session. A time-varying effect model (TVEM) was used to characterize changes in the association between confidence and motivation to abstain (lagged), and included covariates representing pre-treatment abstinence goal and perceived peer marijuana use. Confidence and motivation to abstain from marijuana generally increased during treatment. The association between confidence and motivation strengthened across sessions 1-4, and was maintained through later sessions. Pre-treatment abstinence goal had an early time-limited effect (through session 6) on motivation to abstain. Pre-treatment perception of peer marijuana use had a significant effect on motivation to abstain only at session 2. Early treatment sessions represent a critical period during which the association between confidence and motivation to abstain generally increased. The time-limited effects of pre-treatment characteristics suggest the importance of early sessions in addressing abstinence goal and peer substance use that may impact motivation to abstain from marijuana. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Simple Model with Time-Varying Fine-Structure ``Constant''

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, M. S.

    2009-10-01

    Extending the original version written in colaboration with L.A. Trevisan, we study the generalisation of Dirac's LNH, so that time-variation of the fine-structure constant, due to varying electrical and magnetic permittivities is included along with other variations (cosmological and gravitational ``constants''), etc. We consider the present Universe, and also an inflationary scenario. Rotation of the Universe is a given possibility in this model.

  8. Efficiency or speculation? A time-varying analysis of European sovereign debt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Paulo

    2018-01-01

    The outbreak of the Greek debt crisis caused turmoil in European markets and drew attention to the problem of public debt and its consequences. The increase in the return rates of sovereign debts was one of these consequences. However, like any other asset, sovereign debt returns are expected to have a memoryless behaviour. Analysing a total of 15 European countries (Eurozone and non-Eurozone), and applying a time-varying analysis of the Hurst exponent, we found evidence of long-range memory in sovereign bonds. When analysing the spreads between each bond and the German one, it is possible to conclude that Eurozone countries' spreads show more evidence of long-range dependence. Considering the Eurozone countries most affected by the Eurozone crisis, that long-range dependence is more evident, but started before the crisis, which could be interpreted as possible speculation by investors.

  9. Analysis of an M/G/1 queue with customer impatience and an adaptive arrival process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boxma, O.J.; Prabhu, B.J.

    2009-01-01

    We study an M/G/1 queue with impatience and an adaptive arrival process. The rate of the arrival process changes according to whether an incoming customer is accepted or rejected. We analyse two different models for impatience : (i) based on workload, and (ii) based on queue length. For the

  10. Scattering of a TEM wave from a time varying surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elcrat, Alan R.; Harder, T. Mark; Stonebraker, John T.

    1990-03-01

    A solution is given for reflection of a plane wave with TEM polarization from a planar surface with time varying properties. These properties are given in terms of the currents on the surface. The solution is obtained by numerically solving a system of differential-delay equations in the time domain.

  11. Predictors of early arrival at the emergency department in acute ischaemic stroke.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Curran, C

    2012-01-31

    BACKGROUND: A requirement of an effective acute stroke service is the early arrival of patients to the hospital emergency department (ED). This will allow the possible use of thrombolytic therapy or other acute interventions within a limited time window. AIMS: We investigated the predictors of early arrival in a single hospital serving a mixed urban and rural catchment area. METHODS: A retrospective review of all case notes for 1 year was performed. RESULTS: Of 105 acute strokes, 91 were cerebral infarcts and a total of 71 cases presenting initially to the ED had timing available for analysis. 39.4% presented within 3 h, and 12.7% were potentially suitable for thrombolysis. Those living closer to the hospital were not more likely to arrive within 3 h (Z = -0.411, p = 0.68). Presenting directly to the hospital by emergency services (or private transport) was significantly associated with early arrival in a univariate comparison (p < 0.001), and in a multivariate model. CONCLUSION: The only independent predictor of early arrival to the ED is direct presentation. Improved public education of the importance of recognition of stroke symptoms and rapid contact with the emergency services will improve the early attendance following acute stroke, allowing increased use of acute stroke treatments.

  12. Contact Dynamics of EHL Contacts under Time Varying Conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venner, Cornelis H.; Popovici, G.; Wijnant, Ysbrand H.; Dalmaz, G.; Lubrecht, A.A.; Priest, M

    2004-01-01

    By means of numerical simulations of two situations with time varying operating conditions it is shown that the dynamic behaviour of Elasto-Hydrodynamically Lubricated contacts in terms of vibrations can be characterized as: Changes in the mutual approach lead to film thickness changes in the inlet

  13. The extinction probability in systems randomly varying in time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imre Pázsit

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The extinction probability of a branching process (a neutron chain in a multiplying medium is calculated for a system randomly varying in time. The evolution of the first two moments of such a process was calculated previously by the authors in a system randomly shifting between two states of different multiplication properties. The same model is used here for the investigation of the extinction probability. It is seen that the determination of the extinction probability is significantly more complicated than that of the moments, and it can only be achieved by pure numerical methods. The numerical results indicate that for systems fluctuating between two subcritical or two supercritical states, the extinction probability behaves as expected, but for systems fluctuating between a supercritical and a subcritical state, there is a crucial and unexpected deviation from the predicted behaviour. The results bear some significance not only for neutron chains in a multiplying medium, but also for the evolution of biological populations in a time-varying environment.

  14. Tolerable Time-Varying Overflow on Grass-Covered Slopes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven A. Hughes

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Engineers require estimates of tolerable overtopping limits for grass-covered levees, dikes, and embankments that might experience steady overflow. Realistic tolerance estimates can be used for both resilient design and risk assessment. A simple framework is developed for estimating tolerable overtopping on grass-covered slopes caused by slowly-varying (in time overtopping discharge (e.g., events like storm surges or river flood waves. The framework adapts the well-known Hewlett curves of tolerable limiting velocity as a function of overflow duration. It has been hypothesized that the form of the Hewlett curves suggests that the grass erosion process is governed by the flow work on the slope above a critical threshold velocity (referred to as excess work, and the tolerable erosional limit is reached when the cumulative excess work exceeds a given value determined from the time-dependent Hewlett curves. The cumulative excess work is expressed in terms of overflow discharge above a critical discharge that slowly varies in time, similar to a discharge hydrograph. The methodology is easily applied using forecast storm surge hydrographs at specific locations where wave action is minimal. For preliminary planning purposes, when storm surge hydrographs are unavailable, hypothetical equations for the water level and overflow discharge hydrographs are proposed in terms of the values at maximum overflow and the total duration of overflow. An example application is given to illustrate use of the methodology.

  15. Coded throughput performance simulations for the time-varying satellite channel. M.S. Thesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, LI

    1995-01-01

    The design of a reliable satellite communication link involving the data transfer from a small, low-orbit satellite to a ground station, but through a geostationary satellite, was examined. In such a scenario, the received signal power to noise density ratio increases as the transmitting low-orbit satellite comes into view, and then decreases as it then departs, resulting in a short-duration, time-varying communication link. The optimal values of the small satellite antenna beamwidth, signaling rate, modulation scheme and the theoretical link throughput (in bits per day) have been determined. The goal of this thesis is to choose a practical coding scheme which maximizes the daily link throughput while satisfying a prescribed probability of error requirement. We examine the throughput of both fixed rate and variable rate concatenated forward error correction (FEC) coding schemes for the additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel, and then examine the effect of radio frequency interference (RFI) on the best coding scheme among them. Interleaving is used to mitigate degradation due to RFI. It was found that the variable rate concatenated coding scheme could achieve 74 percent of the theoretical throughput, equivalent to 1.11 Gbits/day based on the cutoff rate R(sub 0). For comparison, 87 percent is achievable for AWGN-only case.

  16. An automatic microseismic or acoustic emission arrival identification scheme with deep recurrent neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Jing; Lu, Jiren; Peng, Suping; Jiang, Tianqi

    2018-02-01

    The conventional arrival pick-up algorithms cannot avoid the manual modification of the parameters for the simultaneous identification of multiple events under different signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs). Therefore, in order to automatically obtain the arrivals of multiple events with high precision under different SNRs, in this study an algorithm was proposed which had the ability to pick up the arrival of microseismic or acoustic emission events based on deep recurrent neural networks. The arrival identification was performed using two important steps, which included a training phase and a testing phase. The training process was mathematically modelled by deep recurrent neural networks using Long Short-Term Memory architecture. During the testing phase, the learned weights were utilized to identify the arrivals through the microseismic/acoustic emission data sets. The data sets were obtained by rock physics experiments of the acoustic emission. In order to obtain the data sets under different SNRs, this study added random noise to the raw experiments' data sets. The results showed that the outcome of the proposed method was able to attain an above 80 per cent hit-rate at SNR 0 dB, and an approximately 70 per cent hit-rate at SNR -5 dB, with an absolute error in 10 sampling points. These results indicated that the proposed method had high selection precision and robustness.

  17. Finite-Time H∞ Filtering for Linear Continuous Time-Varying Systems with Uncertain Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huihong Zhao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the finite-time H∞ filtering problem for linear continuous time-varying systems with uncertain observations and ℒ2-norm bounded noise. The design of finite-time H∞ filter is equivalent to the problem that a certain indefinite quadratic form has a minimum and the filter is such that the minimum is positive. The quadratic form is related to a Krein state-space model according to the Krein space linear estimation theory. By using the projection theory in Krein space, the finite-time H∞ filtering problem is solved. A numerical example is given to illustrate the performance of the H∞ filter.

  18. Two-dimensional phononic crystals with time-varying properties: a multiple scattering analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, D W; Cobbold, R S C

    2010-01-01

    Multiple scattering theory is a versatile two- and three-dimensional method for characterizing the acoustic wave transmission through many scatterers. It provides analytical solutions to wave propagation in scattering structures, and its computational complexity grows logarithmically with the number of scatterers. In this paper we show how the 2D method can be adapted to include the effects of time-varying material parameters. Specifically, a new T-matrix is defined to include the effects of frequency modulation that occurs in time-varying phononic crystals. Solutions were verified against finite difference time domain (FDTD) simulations and showed excellent agreement. This new method enables fast characterization of time-varying phononic crystals without the need to resort to lengthy FDTD simulations. Also, the method of combining T-matrices to form the T-supermatrix remains unchanged provided that the new matrix definitions are used. The method is quite compatible with existing implementations of multiple scattering theory and could be readily extended to three-dimensional multiple scattering theory

  19. Time-varying output performances of piezoelectric vibration energy harvesting under nonstationary random vibrations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Heonjun; Kim, Miso; Park, Choon-Su; Youn, Byeng D.

    2018-01-01

    Piezoelectric vibration energy harvesting (PVEH) has received much attention as a potential solution that could ultimately realize self-powered wireless sensor networks. Since most ambient vibrations in nature are inherently random and nonstationary, the output performances of PVEH devices also randomly change with time. However, little attention has been paid to investigating the randomly time-varying electroelastic behaviors of PVEH systems both analytically and experimentally. The objective of this study is thus to make a step forward towards a deep understanding of the time-varying performances of PVEH devices under nonstationary random vibrations. Two typical cases of nonstationary random vibration signals are considered: (1) randomly-varying amplitude (amplitude modulation; AM) and (2) randomly-varying amplitude with randomly-varying instantaneous frequency (amplitude and frequency modulation; AM-FM). In both cases, this study pursues well-balanced correlations of analytical predictions and experimental observations to deduce the relationships between the time-varying output performances of the PVEH device and two primary input parameters, such as a central frequency and an external electrical resistance. We introduce three correlation metrics to quantitatively compare analytical prediction and experimental observation, including the normalized root mean square error, the correlation coefficient, and the weighted integrated factor. Analytical predictions are in an excellent agreement with experimental observations both mechanically and electrically. This study provides insightful guidelines for designing PVEH devices to reliably generate electric power under nonstationary random vibrations.

  20. Time-varying effect moderation using the structural nested mean model: estimation using inverse-weighted regression with residuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almirall, Daniel; Griffin, Beth Ann; McCaffrey, Daniel F.; Ramchand, Rajeev; Yuen, Robert A.; Murphy, Susan A.

    2014-01-01

    This article considers the problem of examining time-varying causal effect moderation using observational, longitudinal data in which treatment, candidate moderators, and possible confounders are time varying. The structural nested mean model (SNMM) is used to specify the moderated time-varying causal effects of interest in a conditional mean model for a continuous response given time-varying treatments and moderators. We present an easy-to-use estimator of the SNMM that combines an existing regression-with-residuals (RR) approach with an inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting (IPTW) strategy. The RR approach has been shown to identify the moderated time-varying causal effects if the time-varying moderators are also the sole time-varying confounders. The proposed IPTW+RR approach provides estimators of the moderated time-varying causal effects in the SNMM in the presence of an additional, auxiliary set of known and measured time-varying confounders. We use a small simulation experiment to compare IPTW+RR versus the traditional regression approach and to compare small and large sample properties of asymptotic versus bootstrap estimators of the standard errors for the IPTW+RR approach. This article clarifies the distinction between time-varying moderators and time-varying confounders. We illustrate the methodology in a case study to assess if time-varying substance use moderates treatment effects on future substance use. PMID:23873437

  1. Identification of Time Varying Civil Engineering Structures using Multivariate Recursive Time Domain Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, P.; Skjærbæk, P. S.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    with the smoothed quanties which have been obtained from SARCOF. The results show the usefulness of the technique for identification of a time varying civil engineering structure. It is found that all the techniques give reliable estiates of the frequencies of the two lowest modes and the first mode shape. Only...

  2. Time-varying long term memory in the European Union stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sensoy, Ahmet; Tabak, Benjamin M.

    2015-10-01

    This paper proposes a new efficiency index to model time-varying inefficiency in stock markets. We focus on European stock markets and show that they have different degrees of time-varying efficiency. We observe that the 2008 global financial crisis has an adverse effect on almost all EU stock markets. However, the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis has a significant adverse effect only on the markets in France, Spain and Greece. For the late members, joining EU does not have a uniform effect on stock market efficiency. Our results have important implications for policy makers, investors, risk managers and academics.

  3. Design Principles and Algorithms for Air Traffic Arrival Scheduling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erzberger, Heinz; Itoh, Eri

    2014-01-01

    This report presents design principles and algorithms for building a real-time scheduler of arrival aircraft based on a first-come-first-served (FCFS) scheduling protocol. The algorithms provide the conceptual and computational foundation for the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) of the Center/terminal radar approach control facilities (TRACON) automation system, which comprises a set of decision support tools for managing arrival traffic at major airports in the United States. The primary objective of the scheduler is to assign arrival aircraft to a favorable landing runway and schedule them to land at times that minimize delays. A further objective of the scheduler is to allocate delays between high-altitude airspace far away from the airport and low-altitude airspace near the airport. A method of delay allocation is described that minimizes the average operating cost in the presence of errors in controlling aircraft to a specified landing time. This report is a revision of an earlier paper first presented as part of an Advisory Group for Aerospace Research and Development (AGARD) lecture series in September 1995. The authors, during vigorous discussions over the details of this paper, felt it was important to the air-trafficmanagement (ATM) community to revise and extend the original 1995 paper, providing more detail and clarity and thereby allowing future researchers to understand this foundational work as the basis for the TMA's scheduling algorithms.

  4. Adaptive Neural Network Control for Nonlinear Hydraulic Servo-System with Time-Varying State Constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu-Min Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An adaptive neural network control problem is addressed for a class of nonlinear hydraulic servo-systems with time-varying state constraints. In view of the low precision problem of the traditional hydraulic servo-system which is caused by the tracking errors surpassing appropriate bound, the previous works have shown that the constraint for the system is a good way to solve the low precision problem. Meanwhile, compared with constant constraints, the time-varying state constraints are more general in the actual systems. Therefore, when the states of the system are forced to obey bounded time-varying constraint conditions, the high precision tracking performance of the system can be easily realized. In order to achieve this goal, the time-varying barrier Lyapunov function (TVBLF is used to prevent the states from violating time-varying constraints. By the backstepping design, the adaptive controller will be obtained. A radial basis function neural network (RBFNN is used to estimate the uncertainties. Based on analyzing the stability of the hydraulic servo-system, we show that the error signals are bounded in the compacts sets; the time-varying state constrains are never violated and all singles of the hydraulic servo-system are bounded. The simulation and experimental results show that the tracking accuracy of system is improved and the controller has fast tracking ability and strong robustness.

  5. Endogenous time-varying risk aversion and asset returns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berardi, Michele

    2016-01-01

    Stylized facts about statistical properties for short horizon returns in financial markets have been identified in the literature, but a satisfactory understanding for their manifestation is yet to be achieved. In this work, we show that a simple asset pricing model with representative agent is able to generate time series of returns that replicate such stylized facts if the risk aversion coefficient is allowed to change endogenously over time in response to unexpected excess returns under evolutionary forces. The same model, under constant risk aversion, would instead generate returns that are essentially Gaussian. We conclude that an endogenous time-varying risk aversion represents a very parsimonious way to make the model match real data on key statistical properties, and therefore deserves careful consideration from economists and practitioners alike.

  6. Estimating time-varying exposure-outcome associations using case-control data: logistic and case-cohort analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keogh, Ruth H; Mangtani, Punam; Rodrigues, Laura; Nguipdop Djomo, Patrick

    2016-01-05

    Traditional analyses of standard case-control studies using logistic regression do not allow estimation of time-varying associations between exposures and the outcome. We present two approaches which allow this. The motivation is a study of vaccine efficacy as a function of time since vaccination. Our first approach is to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations by fitting a series of logistic regressions within successive time periods, reusing controls across periods. Our second approach treats the case-control sample as a case-cohort study, with the controls forming the subcohort. In the case-cohort analysis, controls contribute information at all times they are at risk. Extensions allow left truncation, frequency matching and, using the case-cohort analysis, time-varying exposures. Simulations are used to investigate the methods. The simulation results show that both methods give correct estimates of time-varying effects of exposures using standard case-control data. Using the logistic approach there are efficiency gains by reusing controls over time and care should be taken over the definition of controls within time periods. However, using the case-cohort analysis there is no ambiguity over the definition of controls. The performance of the two analyses is very similar when controls are used most efficiently under the logistic approach. Using our methods, case-control studies can be used to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations where they may not previously have been considered. The case-cohort analysis has several advantages, including that it allows estimation of time-varying associations as a continuous function of time, while the logistic regression approach is restricted to assuming a step function form for the time-varying association.

  7. Structure/property relations of aluminum under varying rates and stress states

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tucker, Matthew T [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Horstemeyer, Mark F [MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIV; Whittington, Wilburn R [MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIV; Solanki, Kiran N [MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIV.

    2010-11-19

    In this work we analyze the plasticity, damage, and fracture characteristics of three different processed aluminum alloys (rolled 5083-H13, cast A356-T6, and extruded 6061-T6) under varying stress states (tension, compression, and torsion) and strain rates (0.001/, 1/s., and 1000/s). The stress state difference had more of a flow stress effect than the applied strain rates for those given in this study (0.001/sec up to 1000/sec). The stress state and strain rate also had a profound effect on the damage evolution of each aluminum alloy. Tension and torsional straining gave much greater damage nucleation rates than compression. Although the damage of all three alloys was found to be void nucleation dominated, the A356-T6 and 5083-H131 aluminum alloys incurred void damage via micron scale particles where the 6061-T6 aluminum alloy incurred void damage from two scales, micron-scale particles and nanoscale precipitates. Having two length scales of particles that participated in the damage evolution made the 6061-T6 incur a strain rate sensitive damage rate that was different than the other two aluminum alloys. Under tension, as the strain rate increased, the 6061-T6 aluminum alloy's void nucleation rate decreased, but the A356-T6 and 5083-H131 aluminum alloys void nucleation rate increased.

  8. Analysis of the equilibrium trip cost accounting for the fuel cost in a single-lane traffic system without late arrival

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Tie-Qiao; Wang, Tao; Chen, Liang; Huang, Hai-Jun

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce the fuel cost into each commuter's trip cost, define a new trip cost without late arrival and its corresponding equilibrium state, and use a car-following model to explore the impacts of the fuel cost on each commuter's departure time, departure interval, arrival time, arrival interval, traveling time, early arrival time and trip cost at the above equilibrium state. The numerical results show that considering the fuel cost in each commuter's trip cost has positive impacts on his trip cost and fuel cost, and the traffic situation in the system without late arrival, i.e., each commuter should explicitly consider the fuel cost in his trip cost.

  9. Structural nested mean models for assessing time-varying effect moderation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almirall, Daniel; Ten Have, Thomas; Murphy, Susan A

    2010-03-01

    This article considers the problem of assessing causal effect moderation in longitudinal settings in which treatment (or exposure) is time varying and so are the covariates said to moderate its effect. Intermediate causal effects that describe time-varying causal effects of treatment conditional on past covariate history are introduced and considered as part of Robins' structural nested mean model. Two estimators of the intermediate causal effects, and their standard errors, are presented and discussed: The first is a proposed two-stage regression estimator. The second is Robins' G-estimator. The results of a small simulation study that begins to shed light on the small versus large sample performance of the estimators, and on the bias-variance trade-off between the two estimators are presented. The methodology is illustrated using longitudinal data from a depression study.

  10. Frequency-dependent Dispersion Measures and Implications for Pulsar Timing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordes, J. M.; Shannon, R. M.; Stinebring, D. R.

    2016-01-01

    The dispersion measure (DM), the column density of free electrons to a pulsar, is shown to be frequency dependent because of multipath scattering from small-scale electron-density fluctuations. DMs vary between propagation paths whose transverse extent varies strongly with frequency, yielding arrival times that deviate from the high-frequency scaling expected for a cold, uniform, unmagnetized plasma (1/frequency2). Scaling laws for thin phase screens are verified with simulations; extended media are also analyzed. The rms DM difference across an octave band near 1.5 GHz is ˜ 4 × 10-5 pc cm-3 for pulsars at ˜1 kpc distance. The corresponding arrival-time variations are a few to hundreds of nanoseconds for DM ≲ 30 pc cm-3 but increase rapidly to microseconds or more for larger DMs and wider frequency ranges. Chromatic DMs introduce correlated noise into timing residuals with a power spectrum of “low pass” form. The correlation time is roughly the geometric mean of the refraction times for the highest and lowest radio frequencies used, ranging from days to years, depending on the pulsar. We discuss implications for methodologies that use large frequency separations or wide bandwidth receivers for timing measurements. Chromatic DMs are partially mitigable by including an additional chromatic term in arrival time models. Without mitigation, an additional term in the noise model for pulsar timing is implied. In combination with measurement errors from radiometer noise, an arbitrarily large increase in total frequency range (or bandwidth) will yield diminishing benefits and may be detrimental to overall timing precision.

  11. Magnetization Switching of a Co /Pt Multilayered Perpendicular Nanomagnet Assisted by a Microwave Field with Time-Varying Frequency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suto, Hirofumi; Kanao, Taro; Nagasawa, Tazumi; Mizushima, Koichi; Sato, Rie

    2018-05-01

    Microwave-assisted magnetization switching (MAS) is attracting attention as a method for reversing nanomagnets with a high magnetic anisotropy by using a small-amplitude magnetic field. We experimentally study MAS of a perpendicularly magnetized nanomagnet by applying a microwave magnetic field with a time-varying frequency. Because the microwave field frequency can follow the nonlinear decrease of the resonance frequency, larger magnetization excitation than that in a constant-frequency microwave field is induced, which enhances the MAS effect. The switching field decreases almost linearly as the start value of the time-varying microwave field frequency increases, and it becomes smaller than the minimum switching field in a constant-frequency microwave field. To obtain this enhancement of the MAS effect, the end value of the time-varying microwave field frequency needs to be almost the same as or lower than the critical frequency for MAS in a constant-frequency microwave field. In addition, the frequency change typically needs to take 1 ns or longer to make the rate of change slow enough for the magnetization to follow the frequency change. This switching behavior is qualitatively explained by the theory based on the macrospin model.

  12. A descriptive study on public transport user behaviour from Live Bus Arrivals

    OpenAIRE

    Dell’Amico, M.; Hadjidimitriou, S.; Kaparias, I.

    2014-01-01

    In order to offer public transport that meet citizens’ needs for transport and further increase the use of bus services, Public Authorities need to analyse and understand travellers behaviour. Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) data provide information on the observed time of arrival and departure of a bus at each stop. These data are fed into an algorithm to provide information to users on the expected time of arrival at the bus stop by an on-line service. In the city of London this service is...

  13. Measurement of speech levels in the presence of time varying background noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearsons, K. S.; Horonjeff, R.

    1982-01-01

    Short-term speech level measurements which could be used to note changes in vocal effort in a time varying noise environment were studied. Knowing the changes in speech level would in turn allow prediction of intelligibility in the presence of aircraft flyover noise. Tests indicated that it is possible to use two second samples of speech to estimate long term root mean square speech levels. Other tests were also performed in which people read out loud during aircraft flyover noise. Results of these tests indicate that people do indeed raise their voice during flyovers at a rate of about 3-1/2 dB for each 10 dB increase in background level. This finding is in agreement with other tests of speech levels in the presence of steady state background noise.

  14. The effect of bedload transport rates on bedform and planform morphological development in a laboratory meandering stream under varying flow conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, C.; Good, R. G. R.; Binns, A. D.

    2017-12-01

    Sediment transport processes in streams provides valuable insight into the temporal evolution of planform and bedform geometry. The majority of previous experimental research in the literature has focused on bedload transport and corresponding bedform development in rectangular, confined channels, which does not consider planform adjustment processes in streams. In contrast, research conducted with laboratory streams having movable banks can investigate planform development in addition to bedform development, which is more representative of natural streams. The goal of this research is to explore the relationship between bedload transport rates and the morphological adjustments in meandering streams. To accomplish this, a series of experimental runs were conducted in a 5.6 m by 1.9 m river basin flume at the University of Guelph to analyze the bedload impacts on bed formations and planform adjustments in response to varying flow conditions. In total, three experimental runs were conducted: two runs using steady state conditions and one run using unsteady flow conditions in the form of a symmetrical hydrograph implementing quasi steady state flow. The runs were performed in a series of time-steps in order to monitor the evolution of the stream morphology and the bedload transport rates. Structure from motion (SfM) was utilized to capture the channel morphology after each time-step, and Agisoft PhotoScan software was used to produce digital elevation models to analyze the morphological evolution of the channel with time. Bedload transport rates were quantified using a sediment catch at the end of the flume. Although total flow volumes were similar for each run, the morphological evolution and bedload transport rates in each run varied. The observed bedload transport rates from the flume are compared with existing bedload transport formulas to assess their accuracy with respect to sediment transport in unconfined meandering channels. The measured sediment transport

  15. Frequency-scanning interferometry using a time-varying Kalman filter for dynamic tracking measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Xingyu; Liu, Zhigang; Tao, Long; Deng, Zhongwen

    2017-10-16

    Frequency scanning interferometry (FSI) with a single external cavity diode laser (ECDL) and time-invariant Kalman filtering is an effective technique for measuring the distance of a dynamic target. However, due to the hysteresis of the piezoelectric ceramic transducer (PZT) actuator in the ECDL, the optical frequency sweeps of the ECDL exhibit different behaviors, depending on whether the frequency is increasing or decreasing. Consequently, the model parameters of Kalman filter appear time varying in each iteration, which produces state estimation errors with time-invariant filtering. To address this, in this paper, a time-varying Kalman filter is proposed to model the instantaneous movement of a target relative to the different optical frequency tuning durations of the ECDL. The combination of the FSI method with the time-varying Kalman filter was theoretically analyzed, and the simulation and experimental results show the proposed method greatly improves the performance of dynamic FSI measurements.

  16. A behavioral asset pricing model with a time-varying second moment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiarella, Carl; He Xuezhong; Wang, Duo

    2006-01-01

    We develop a simple behavioral asset pricing model with fundamentalists and chartists in order to study price behavior in financial markets when chartists estimate both conditional mean and variance by using a weighted averaging process. Through a stability, bifurcation, and normal form analysis, the market impact of the weighting process and time-varying second moment are examined. It is found that the fundamental price becomes stable (unstable) when the activities from both types of traders are balanced (unbalanced). When the fundamental price becomes unstable, the weighting process leads to different price dynamics, depending on whether the chartists act as either trend followers or contrarians. It is also found that a time-varying second moment of the chartists does not change the stability of the fundamental price, but it does influence the stability of the bifurcations. The bifurcation becomes stable (unstable) when the chartists are more (less) concerned about the market risk characterized by the time-varying second moment. Different routes to complicated price dynamics are also observed. The analysis provides an analytical foundation for the statistical analysis of the corresponding stochastic version of this type of behavioral model

  17. Estimating time-varying exposure-outcome associations using case-control data: logistic and case-cohort analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth H. Keogh

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Traditional analyses of standard case-control studies using logistic regression do not allow estimation of time-varying associations between exposures and the outcome. We present two approaches which allow this. The motivation is a study of vaccine efficacy as a function of time since vaccination. Methods Our first approach is to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations by fitting a series of logistic regressions within successive time periods, reusing controls across periods. Our second approach treats the case-control sample as a case-cohort study, with the controls forming the subcohort. In the case-cohort analysis, controls contribute information at all times they are at risk. Extensions allow left truncation, frequency matching and, using the case-cohort analysis, time-varying exposures. Simulations are used to investigate the methods. Results The simulation results show that both methods give correct estimates of time-varying effects of exposures using standard case-control data. Using the logistic approach there are efficiency gains by reusing controls over time and care should be taken over the definition of controls within time periods. However, using the case-cohort analysis there is no ambiguity over the definition of controls. The performance of the two analyses is very similar when controls are used most efficiently under the logistic approach. Conclusions Using our methods, case-control studies can be used to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations where they may not previously have been considered. The case-cohort analysis has several advantages, including that it allows estimation of time-varying associations as a continuous function of time, while the logistic regression approach is restricted to assuming a step function form for the time-varying association.

  18. Rapid estimation of earthquake magnitude from the arrival time of the peak high‐frequency amplitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noda, Shunta; Yamamoto, Shunroku; Ellsworth, William L.

    2016-01-01

    We propose a simple approach to measure earthquake magnitude M using the time difference (Top) between the body‐wave onset and the arrival time of the peak high‐frequency amplitude in an accelerogram. Measured in this manner, we find that Mw is proportional to 2logTop for earthquakes 5≤Mw≤7, which is the theoretical proportionality if Top is proportional to source dimension and stress drop is scale invariant. Using high‐frequency (>2  Hz) data, the root mean square (rms) residual between Mw and MTop(M estimated from Top) is approximately 0.5 magnitude units. The rms residuals of the high‐frequency data in passbands between 2 and 16 Hz are uniformly smaller than those obtained from the lower‐frequency data. Top depends weakly on epicentral distance, and this dependence can be ignored for distances earthquake produces a final magnitude estimate of M 9.0 at 120 s after the origin time. We conclude that Top of high‐frequency (>2  Hz) accelerograms has value in the context of earthquake early warning for extremely large events.

  19. Exponential Stability for Impulsive BAM Neural Networks with Time-Varying Delays and Reaction-Diffusion Terms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiankun Song

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Impulsive bidirectional associative memory neural network model with time-varying delays and reaction-diffusion terms is considered. Several sufficient conditions ensuring the existence, uniqueness, and global exponential stability of equilibrium point for the addressed neural network are derived by M-matrix theory, analytic methods, and inequality techniques. Moreover, the exponential convergence rate index is estimated, which depends on the system parameters. The obtained results in this paper are less restrictive than previously known criteria. Two examples are given to show the effectiveness of the obtained results.

  20. Exponential Stability for Impulsive BAM Neural Networks with Time-Varying Delays and Reaction-Diffusion Terms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cao Jinde

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Impulsive bidirectional associative memory neural network model with time-varying delays and reaction-diffusion terms is considered. Several sufficient conditions ensuring the existence, uniqueness, and global exponential stability of equilibrium point for the addressed neural network are derived by M-matrix theory, analytic methods, and inequality techniques. Moreover, the exponential convergence rate index is estimated, which depends on the system parameters. The obtained results in this paper are less restrictive than previously known criteria. Two examples are given to show the effectiveness of the obtained results.

  1. Determination of varying consumption rates from radiotracer data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadwell, L.L.; Schreckhise, R.G.

    1976-01-01

    Data obtained on the uptake and elimination of phosphorus-32 by foraging grasshoppers were utilized to estimate consumption rates of blue grama grass (Bouteloua gracilis). Grasshoppers were caged in field enclosures containing blue grama grass labeled with 32 P. Periodic measurements were made to determine the body burdens of the grasshoppers and concentration of 32 P in the grass. This information, along with a two-component exponential function which was observed to best mathematically describe the retention of acutely ingested phosphorus, provided the basis for a convolution integral of the consumption rate. The consumption rate was estimated by dividing the observed body burden of the grasshopper by the convolution integral of the input (grass concentration) and impulse (retention curve) function over each observation period. Successive calculations of the consumption rates were made at various points in time as the body burden changed from continued feeding on labeled forage

  2. [Getting qi and arrival of qi].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Nong-Yu

    2014-08-01

    In order to clarify the inter-relationship between getting qi and arrival of qi, the relevant theory in the Inner Canon of Yellow Emperor is re-considered, and then the relationship of the two concepts by combining with some opinions from scholars is compared and analyzed. Getting qi is the signal of acupuncture at an acupoint; also it is a sign of arrival of qi at an acupoint; what's more, it is the premise for reinforcing or reducing manipulation. The sensation of arrival of qi comes from both doctors and patients, characterized with explicit symptoms including "tight and swift", "sunken, sticky and tight", "light, loose and slow", "warm at the acupoint" or "cold at the acupoint" as well as implicit symptom including "qi moving along the meridians"; also there is the condition of qi regulation that is characterized with "paced and harmony" stomach qi. The arrival of qi could be divided into "qi moving to the needles" and "qi traveling to the diseases". The "qi moving to the needles" has similar meaning to getting qi. The "qi traveling to the diseases" is reflected as "qi arrival with efficacy" and characterized as an immediate effect or a delayed effect. There are differences between the concepts of getting qi and arrival of qi. Getting qi focuses on the importance of the doctor during acupuncture processes (differentiate the nature of qi, guard qi, manipulate qi), which also suggests the clinical significance of implicit getting qi. "Arrival of qi" emphasizes "qi arrival with efficacy", and indicates that during treatment the differences of the exterior or interior and deficit or surplus should be distinguished. For external and shallow diseases involving myofascia-related diseases, miu needling and shallow needling can achieve an immediate treatment effect; for deep, internal and deficient diseases, reinforcing or reducing manipulation should be used to achieve stomach qi, which has delayed effects but can be used as an indicator. It is believed that pulse

  3. Errors in 'BED'-derived estimates of HIV incidence will vary by place, time and age.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy B Hallett

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The BED Capture Enzyme Immunoassay, believed to distinguish recent HIV infections, is being used to estimate HIV incidence, although an important property of the test--how specificity changes with time since infection--has not been not measured.We construct hypothetical scenarios for the performance of BED test, consistent with current knowledge, and explore how this could influence errors in BED estimates of incidence using a mathematical model of six African countries. The model is also used to determine the conditions and the sample sizes required for the BED test to reliably detect trends in HIV incidence.If the chance of misclassification by BED increases with time since infection, the overall proportion of individuals misclassified could vary widely between countries, over time, and across age-groups, in a manner determined by the historic course of the epidemic and the age-pattern of incidence. Under some circumstances, changes in BED estimates over time can approximately track actual changes in incidence, but large sample sizes (50,000+ will be required for recorded changes to be statistically significant.The relationship between BED test specificity and time since infection has not been fully measured, but, if it decreases, errors in estimates of incidence could vary by place, time and age-group. This means that post-assay adjustment procedures using parameters from different populations or at different times may not be valid. Further research is urgently needed into the properties of the BED test, and the rate of misclassification in a wide range of populations.

  4. Robust stabilisation of time-varying delay systems with probabilistic uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Ning; Xiong, Junlin; Lam, James

    2016-09-01

    For robust stabilisation of time-varying delay systems, only sufficient conditions are available to date. A natural question is as follows: if the existing sufficient conditions are not satisfied, and hence no controllers can be found, what can one do to improve the stability performance of time-varying delay systems? This question is addressed in this paper when there is a probabilistic structure on the parameter uncertainty set. A randomised algorithm is proposed to design a state-feedback controller, which stabilises the system over the uncertainty domain in a probabilistic sense. The capability of the designed controller is quantified by the probability of stability of the resulting closed-loop system. The accuracy of the solution obtained from the randomised algorithm is also analysed. Finally, numerical examples are used to illustrate the effectiveness and advantages of the developed controller design approach.

  5. Robust Stabilization of Discrete-Time Systems with Time-Varying Delay: An LMI Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valter J. S. Leite

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Sufficient linear matrix inequality (LMI conditions to verify the robust stability and to design robust state feedback gains for the class of linear discrete-time systems with time-varying delay and polytopic uncertainties are presented. The conditions are obtained through parameter-dependent Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals and use some extra variables, which yield less conservative LMI conditions. Both problems, robust stability analysis and robust synthesis, are formulated as convex problems where all system matrices can be affected by uncertainty. Some numerical examples are presented to illustrate the advantages of the proposed LMI conditions.

  6. Time difference of arrival estimation of microseismic signals based on alpha-stable distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Rui-Sheng; Gong, Yue; Peng, Yan-Jun; Sun, Hong-Mei; Zhang, Xing-Li; Lu, Xin-Ming

    2018-05-01

    Microseismic signals are generally considered to follow the Gauss distribution. A comparison of the dynamic characteristics of sample variance and the symmetry of microseismic signals with the signals which follow α-stable distribution reveals that the microseismic signals have obvious pulse characteristics and that the probability density curve of the microseismic signal is approximately symmetric. Thus, the hypothesis that microseismic signals follow the symmetric α-stable distribution is proposed. On the premise of this hypothesis, the characteristic exponent α of the microseismic signals is obtained by utilizing the fractional low-order statistics, and then a new method of time difference of arrival (TDOA) estimation of microseismic signals based on fractional low-order covariance (FLOC) is proposed. Upon applying this method to the TDOA estimation of Ricker wavelet simulation signals and real microseismic signals, experimental results show that the FLOC method, which is based on the assumption of the symmetric α-stable distribution, leads to enhanced spatial resolution of the TDOA estimation relative to the generalized cross correlation (GCC) method, which is based on the assumption of the Gaussian distribution.

  7. Does pet arrival trigger prosocial behaviors in individuals with autism?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marine Grandgeorge

    Full Text Available Alteration of social interactions especially prosocial behaviors--an important aspect of development--is one of the characteristics of autistic disorders. Numerous strategies or therapies are used to improve communication skills or at least to reduce social impairments. Animal-assisted therapies are used widely but their relevant benefits have never been scientifically evaluated. In the present study, we evaluated the association between the presence or the arrival of pets in families with an individual with autism and the changes in his or her prosocial behaviors. Of 260 individuals with autism--on the basis of presence or absence of pets--two groups of 12 individuals and two groups of 8 individuals were assigned to: study 1 (pet arrival after age of 5 versus no pet and study 2 (pet versus no pet, respectively. Evaluation of social impairment was assessed at two time periods using the 36-items ADI-R algorithm and a parental questionnaire about their child-pet relationships. The results showed that 2 of the 36 items changed positively between the age of 4 to 5 (t(0 and time of assessment (t(1 in the pet arrival group (study 1: "offering to share" and "offering comfort". Interestingly, these two items reflect prosocial behaviors. There seemed to be no significant changes in any item for the three other groups. The interactions between individuals with autism and their pets were more--qualitatively and quantitatively--reported in the situation of pet arrival than pet presence since birth. These findings open further lines of research on the impact of pet's presence or arrival in families with an individual with autism. Given the potential ability of individuals with autism to develop prosocial behaviors, related studies are needed to better understand the mechanisms involved in the development of such child-pet relationship.

  8. Does pet arrival trigger prosocial behaviors in individuals with autism?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandgeorge, Marine; Tordjman, Sylvie; Lazartigues, Alain; Lemonnier, Eric; Deleau, Michel; Hausberger, Martine

    2012-01-01

    Alteration of social interactions especially prosocial behaviors--an important aspect of development--is one of the characteristics of autistic disorders. Numerous strategies or therapies are used to improve communication skills or at least to reduce social impairments. Animal-assisted therapies are used widely but their relevant benefits have never been scientifically evaluated. In the present study, we evaluated the association between the presence or the arrival of pets in families with an individual with autism and the changes in his or her prosocial behaviors. Of 260 individuals with autism--on the basis of presence or absence of pets--two groups of 12 individuals and two groups of 8 individuals were assigned to: study 1 (pet arrival after age of 5 versus no pet) and study 2 (pet versus no pet), respectively. Evaluation of social impairment was assessed at two time periods using the 36-items ADI-R algorithm and a parental questionnaire about their child-pet relationships. The results showed that 2 of the 36 items changed positively between the age of 4 to 5 (t(0)) and time of assessment (t(1)) in the pet arrival group (study 1): "offering to share" and "offering comfort". Interestingly, these two items reflect prosocial behaviors. There seemed to be no significant changes in any item for the three other groups. The interactions between individuals with autism and their pets were more--qualitatively and quantitatively--reported in the situation of pet arrival than pet presence since birth. These findings open further lines of research on the impact of pet's presence or arrival in families with an individual with autism. Given the potential ability of individuals with autism to develop prosocial behaviors, related studies are needed to better understand the mechanisms involved in the development of such child-pet relationship.

  9. Mean sojourn times for phase-type discriminatory processor sharing systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haviv, M.; van der Wal, J.

    2008-01-01

    In a discriminatory processor sharing (DPS) queueing model, each job (or customer) belongs to one out of finitely many classes. The arrival processes are Poisson. Classes differ with respect to arrival rates and service time distributions. Moreover, classes have different priority levels. All jobs

  10. Estimating evolutionary rates using time-structured data: a general comparison of phylogenetic methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duchêne, Sebastián; Geoghegan, Jemma L; Holmes, Edward C; Ho, Simon Y W

    2016-11-15

    In rapidly evolving pathogens, including viruses and some bacteria, genetic change can accumulate over short time-frames. Accordingly, their sampling times can be used to calibrate molecular clocks, allowing estimation of evolutionary rates. Methods for estimating rates from time-structured data vary in how they treat phylogenetic uncertainty and rate variation among lineages. We compiled 81 virus data sets and estimated nucleotide substitution rates using root-to-tip regression, least-squares dating and Bayesian inference. Although estimates from these three methods were often congruent, this largely relied on the choice of clock model. In particular, relaxed-clock models tended to produce higher rate estimates than methods that assume constant rates. Discrepancies in rate estimates were also associated with high among-lineage rate variation, and phylogenetic and temporal clustering. These results provide insights into the factors that affect the reliability of rate estimates from time-structured sequence data, emphasizing the importance of clock-model testing. sduchene@unimelb.edu.au or garzonsebastian@hotmail.comSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Robust stability analysis of uncertain stochastic neural networks with interval time-varying delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Wei; Yang, Simon X.; Fu Wei; Wu Haixia

    2009-01-01

    This paper addresses the stability analysis problem for uncertain stochastic neural networks with interval time-varying delays. The parameter uncertainties are assumed to be norm bounded, and the delay factor is assumed to be time-varying and belong to a given interval, which means that the lower and upper bounds of interval time-varying delays are available. A sufficient condition is derived such that for all admissible uncertainties, the considered neural network is robustly, globally, asymptotically stable in the mean square. Some stability criteria are formulated by means of the feasibility of a linear matrix inequality (LMI), which can be effectively solved by some standard numerical packages. Finally, numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed criteria.

  12. Meta-analytic methods for pooling rates when follow-up duration varies: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolf Fredric M

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Meta-analysis can be used to pool rate measures across studies, but challenges arise when follow-up duration varies. Our objective was to compare different statistical approaches for pooling count data of varying follow-up times in terms of estimates of effect, precision, and clinical interpretability. Methods We examined data from a published Cochrane Review of asthma self-management education in children. We selected two rate measures with the largest number of contributing studies: school absences and emergency room (ER visits. We estimated fixed- and random-effects standardized weighted mean differences (SMD, stratified incidence rate differences (IRD, and stratified incidence rate ratios (IRR. We also fit Poisson regression models, which allowed for further adjustment for clustering by study. Results For both outcomes, all methods gave qualitatively similar estimates of effect in favor of the intervention. For school absences, SMD showed modest results in favor of the intervention (SMD -0.14, 95% CI -0.23 to -0.04. IRD implied that the intervention reduced school absences by 1.8 days per year (IRD -0.15 days/child-month, 95% CI -0.19 to -0.11, while IRR suggested a 14% reduction in absences (IRR 0.86, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.90. For ER visits, SMD showed a modest benefit in favor of the intervention (SMD -0.27, 95% CI: -0.45 to -0.09. IRD implied that the intervention reduced ER visits by 1 visit every 2 years (IRD -0.04 visits/child-month, 95% CI: -0.05 to -0.03, while IRR suggested a 34% reduction in ER visits (IRR 0.66, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.74. In Poisson models, adjustment for clustering lowered the precision of the estimates relative to stratified IRR results. For ER visits but not school absences, failure to incorporate study indicators resulted in a different estimate of effect (unadjusted IRR 0.77, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.99. Conclusions Choice of method among the ones presented had little effect on inference but affected the

  13. Meta-analytic methods for pooling rates when follow-up duration varies: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guevara, James P; Berlin, Jesse A; Wolf, Fredric M

    2004-07-12

    Meta-analysis can be used to pool rate measures across studies, but challenges arise when follow-up duration varies. Our objective was to compare different statistical approaches for pooling count data of varying follow-up times in terms of estimates of effect, precision, and clinical interpretability. We examined data from a published Cochrane Review of asthma self-management education in children. We selected two rate measures with the largest number of contributing studies: school absences and emergency room (ER) visits. We estimated fixed- and random-effects standardized weighted mean differences (SMD), stratified incidence rate differences (IRD), and stratified incidence rate ratios (IRR). We also fit Poisson regression models, which allowed for further adjustment for clustering by study. For both outcomes, all methods gave qualitatively similar estimates of effect in favor of the intervention. For school absences, SMD showed modest results in favor of the intervention (SMD -0.14, 95% CI -0.23 to -0.04). IRD implied that the intervention reduced school absences by 1.8 days per year (IRD -0.15 days/child-month, 95% CI -0.19 to -0.11), while IRR suggested a 14% reduction in absences (IRR 0.86, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.90). For ER visits, SMD showed a modest benefit in favor of the intervention (SMD -0.27, 95% CI: -0.45 to -0.09). IRD implied that the intervention reduced ER visits by 1 visit every 2 years (IRD -0.04 visits/child-month, 95% CI: -0.05 to -0.03), while IRR suggested a 34% reduction in ER visits (IRR 0.66, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.74). In Poisson models, adjustment for clustering lowered the precision of the estimates relative to stratified IRR results. For ER visits but not school absences, failure to incorporate study indicators resulted in a different estimate of effect (unadjusted IRR 0.77, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.99). Choice of method among the ones presented had little effect on inference but affected the clinical interpretability of the findings. Incidence rate

  14. Nonlinearly Activated Neural Network for Solving Time-Varying Complex Sylvester Equation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shuai; Li, Yangming

    2013-10-28

    The Sylvester equation is often encountered in mathematics and control theory. For the general time-invariant Sylvester equation problem, which is defined in the domain of complex numbers, the Bartels-Stewart algorithm and its extensions are effective and widely used with an O(n³) time complexity. When applied to solving the time-varying Sylvester equation, the computation burden increases intensively with the decrease of sampling period and cannot satisfy continuous realtime calculation requirements. For the special case of the general Sylvester equation problem defined in the domain of real numbers, gradient-based recurrent neural networks are able to solve the time-varying Sylvester equation in real time, but there always exists an estimation error while a recently proposed recurrent neural network by Zhang et al [this type of neural network is called Zhang neural network (ZNN)] converges to the solution ideally. The advancements in complex-valued neural networks cast light to extend the existing real-valued ZNN for solving the time-varying real-valued Sylvester equation to its counterpart in the domain of complex numbers. In this paper, a complex-valued ZNN for solving the complex-valued Sylvester equation problem is investigated and the global convergence of the neural network is proven with the proposed nonlinear complex-valued activation functions. Moreover, a special type of activation function with a core function, called sign-bi-power function, is proven to enable the ZNN to converge in finite time, which further enhances its advantage in online processing. In this case, the upper bound of the convergence time is also derived analytically. Simulations are performed to evaluate and compare the performance of the neural network with different parameters and activation functions. Both theoretical analysis and numerical simulations validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  15. Delay-Dependent Exponential Stability for Discrete-Time BAM Neural Networks with Time-Varying Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonggang Chen

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the delay-dependent exponential stability for discrete-time BAM neural networks with time-varying delays. By constructing the new Lyapunov functional, the improved delay-dependent exponential stability criterion is derived in terms of linear matrix inequality (LMI. Moreover, in order to reduce the conservativeness, some slack matrices are introduced in this paper. Two numerical examples are presented to show the effectiveness and less conservativeness of the proposed method.

  16. A Method of Time-Varying Rayleigh Channel Tracking in MIMO Radio System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GONG Yan-fei; HE Zi-shu; HAN Chun-lin

    2005-01-01

    A method of MIMO channel tracking based on Kalman filter and MMSE-DFE is proposed. The Kalman filter tracks the time-varying channel by using the MMSE-DFE decision and the MMSE-DFE conducts the next decision by using the channel estimates produced by the Kalman filter. Polynomial fitting is used to bridge the gap between the channel estimates produced by the Kalman filter and those needed for the DFE decision. Computer simulation demonstrates that this method can track the MIMO time-varying channel effectively.

  17. Determination of residence times of ions in a resistive glass selected ion flow-drift tube using the Hadamard transformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spesyvyi, Anatolii; Španěl, Patrik

    2015-09-15

    Selected ion flow tube mass spectrometry, SIFT-MS, used for trace gas analyses has certain fundamental limitations that could be alleviated by adding a facility that allows reaction times and ion interaction energies to be varied. Thus, a selected ion flow-drift tube, SIFDT, has been created to explore the influence of an embedded electric field on these parameters and on reaction processes. The new SIFTD instrument was constructed using a miniature resistive glass drift tube. Arrival times of ions, t, analysed by a downstream quadrupole mass spectrometer over the m/z range 10-100 were studied by modulating the injected ion current using a gate lens. Single pulse modulation was compared with pseudorandom time multiplexing exploiting the Hadamard transformation. A simple model involving analysis of ethanol and water vapour mixture in air was used to explore the advantages of the SIFDT concept to SIFT-MS analysis. It is shown that the resistive glass drift tube is suitable for SIFDT experiments. The Hadamard transformation can be used to routinely determine reagent ion residence time in the flow-drift tube and also to observe differences in arrival times for different product ions. Two-dimensional data combining arrival time and mass spectra can be obtained rapidly. The calculated ion drift velocities vary with the reduced field strength, E/N, and the calculated ion mobilities agree with theoretical and previous literature values. This study has provided evidence that the SIFDT-MS technique can be implemented in a miniature and low-cost instrument and two- or three-dimensional data can be obtained (product ion count rates as functions of m/z, t and E/N) using the Hadamard transformation thus providing exciting possibilities for further analytical additions and extensions of the SIFT-MS technique. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. A Class of Prediction-Correction Methods for Time-Varying Convex Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonetto, Andrea; Mokhtari, Aryan; Koppel, Alec; Leus, Geert; Ribeiro, Alejandro

    2016-09-01

    This paper considers unconstrained convex optimization problems with time-varying objective functions. We propose algorithms with a discrete time-sampling scheme to find and track the solution trajectory based on prediction and correction steps, while sampling the problem data at a constant rate of $1/h$, where $h$ is the length of the sampling interval. The prediction step is derived by analyzing the iso-residual dynamics of the optimality conditions. The correction step adjusts for the distance between the current prediction and the optimizer at each time step, and consists either of one or multiple gradient steps or Newton steps, which respectively correspond to the gradient trajectory tracking (GTT) or Newton trajectory tracking (NTT) algorithms. Under suitable conditions, we establish that the asymptotic error incurred by both proposed methods behaves as $O(h^2)$, and in some cases as $O(h^4)$, which outperforms the state-of-the-art error bound of $O(h)$ for correction-only methods in the gradient-correction step. Moreover, when the characteristics of the objective function variation are not available, we propose approximate gradient and Newton tracking algorithms (AGT and ANT, respectively) that still attain these asymptotical error bounds. Numerical simulations demonstrate the practical utility of the proposed methods and that they improve upon existing techniques by several orders of magnitude.

  19. Models of quality-adjusted life years when health varies over time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kristian Schultz; Østerdal, Lars Peter Raahave

    2006-01-01

    Qualityadjusted life year (QALY) models are widely used for economic evaluation in the health care sector. In the first part of the paper, we establish an overview of QALY models where health varies over time and provide a theoretical analysis of model identification and parameter estimation from...... time tradeoff (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) scores. We investigate deterministic and probabilistic models and consider five different families of discounting functions in all. The second part of the paper discusses four issues recurrently debated in the literature. This discussion includes questioning...... of these two can be used to disentangle risk aversion from discounting. We find that caution must be taken when drawing conclusions from models with chronic health states to situations where health varies over time. One notable difference is that in the former case, risk aversion may be indistinguishable from...

  20. Replacement policy in a system under shocks following a Markovian arrival process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montoro-Cazorla, Delia; Perez-Ocon, Rafael; Carmen Segovia, Maria del

    2009-01-01

    We present a system subject to shocks that arrive following a Markovian arrival process. The system is minimally repaired. It is replaced when a certain number of shocks arrive. A general model where the replacements are governed by a discrete phase-type distribution is studied. For this system, the Markov process governing the system is constructed, and the interarrival times between replacements and the number of replacements are calculated. A special case of this system is when it can stand a prefixed number of shocks. For this new system, the same performance measures are calculated. The systems are considered in transient and stationary regime

  1. Replacement policy in a system under shocks following a Markovian arrival process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Montoro-Cazorla, Delia [Department of Statistics and Operational Research, University of Jaen (Spain); Perez-Ocon, Rafael [Department of Statistics and Operational Research, University of Granada, Granada (Spain)], E-mail: rperezo@ugr.es; Carmen Segovia, Maria del [Departamento de Estadistica e I.O., University of Granada, Granada (Spain)

    2009-02-15

    We present a system subject to shocks that arrive following a Markovian arrival process. The system is minimally repaired. It is replaced when a certain number of shocks arrive. A general model where the replacements are governed by a discrete phase-type distribution is studied. For this system, the Markov process governing the system is constructed, and the interarrival times between replacements and the number of replacements are calculated. A special case of this system is when it can stand a prefixed number of shocks. For this new system, the same performance measures are calculated. The systems are considered in transient and stationary regime.

  2. Reducing truck emissions at container terminals in a low carbon economy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Gang; GOVINDAN, Kannan; Golias, Mihalis M.

    2013-01-01

    This study proposes a methodology to optimize truck arrival patterns to reduce emissions from idling truck engines at marine container terminals. A bi-objective model is developed minimizing both truck waiting times and truck arrival pattern change. The truck waiting time is estimated via...... a queueing network. Based on the waiting time, truck idling emissions are estimated. The proposed methodology is evaluated with a case study, where truck arrival rates vary over time. We propose a Genetic Algorithm based heuristic to solve the resulting problem. Result shows that, a small shift of truck...... arrivals can significantly reduce truck emissions, especially at the gate....

  3. Time-varying causality between energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth: evidence from US states.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzeremes, Panayiotis

    2018-02-01

    This study is the first attempt to investigate the relationship between CO 2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth at a state level, for the 50 US states, through a time-varying causality approach using annual data over the periods 1960-2010. The time-varying causality test facilitates the better understanding of the causal relationship between the covariates owing to the fact that it might identify causalities when the time-constant hypothesis is rejected. Our findings indicate the existence of a time-varying causality at the state level. Specifically, the results probe eight bidirectional time-varying causalities between energy consumption and CO 2 emission, six cases of two-way time-varying causalities between economic growth and energy consumption, and five bidirectional time-varying causalities between economic growth and CO 2 emission. Moreover, we examine the traditional environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for the states. Notably, our results do not endorse the validity of the EKC, albeit the majority of states support an inverted N-shaped relationship. Lastly, we can identify multiple policy implications based on the empirical results.

  4. Time of Arrival Estimation in Probability-Controlled Generalized CDMA Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hagit Messer

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, more and more wireless communications systems are required to provide also a positioning measurement. In code division multiple access (CDMA communication systems, the positioning accuracy is significantly degraded by the multiple access interference (MAI caused by other users in the system. This MAI is commonly managed by a power control mechanism, and yet, MAI has a major effect on positioning accuracy. Probability control is a recently introduced interference management mechanism. In this mechanism, a user with excess power chooses not to transmit some of its symbols. The information in the nontransmitted symbols is recovered by an error-correcting code (ECC, while all other users receive a more reliable data during these quiet periods. Previous research had shown that the implementation of a probability control mechanism can significantly reduce the MAI. In this paper, we show that probability control also improves the positioning accuracy. We focus on time-of-arrival (TOA based positioning systems. We analyze the TOA estimation performance in a generalized CDMA system, in which the probability control mechanism is employed, where the transmitted signal is noncontinuous with a symbol transmission probability smaller than 1. The accuracy of the TOA estimation is determined using appropriate modifications of the Cramer-Rao bound on the delay estimation. Keeping the average transmission power constant, we show that the TOA accuracy of each user does not depend on its transmission probability, while being a nondecreasing function of the transmission probability of any other user. Therefore, a generalized, noncontinuous CDMA system with a probability control mechanism can always achieve better positioning performance, for all users in the network, than a conventional, continuous, CDMA system.

  5. Study on the behaviour of timing photomultipliers at a high counting rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gladyshev, D.A.; Li, B.N.; Yunusov, Kh.R.

    1978-01-01

    Variations in the amplification factor K of a photomultiplier (PMU) with the accuracy of 1% in a pulse mode are studied. Measurements were performed by means of a light pulse generator based on a light diode which generates pulses at the repetition rate of 250-10 5 pulse/s. Relative variations in K were determined by the position of the peak gravity centre from the light diode using a pulse analyzer and a frequency meter. Results of PM testing show that, at a sudden counting rate increase, the amplification increases during the time period less than, the measurement time (less than 1 s) and returns to the stationary value. When the counting rate returns from 10 5 pulse/s to the initial value of 250 pulse/s, the amplification decreases and than increases to stationary value. The total time of K stabilization after counting rate applying constitutes 10-70 min. Restoration of K after counting rate removal occurs to be much slower, during 3 hr. 40 min. K values varied from 1 to 12%

  6. Robustness analysis of the Zhang neural network for online time-varying quadratic optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Yunong; Ruan Gongqin; Li Kene; Yang Yiwen

    2010-01-01

    A general type of recurrent neural network (termed as Zhang neural network, ZNN) has recently been proposed by Zhang et al for the online solution of time-varying quadratic-minimization (QM) and quadratic-programming (QP) problems. Global exponential convergence of the ZNN could be achieved theoretically in an ideal error-free situation. In this paper, with the normal differentiation and dynamics-implementation errors considered, the robustness properties of the ZNN model are investigated for solving these time-varying problems. In addition, linear activation functions and power-sigmoid activation functions could be applied to such a perturbed ZNN model. Both theoretical-analysis and computer-simulation results demonstrate the good ZNN robustness and superior performance for online time-varying QM and QP problem solving, especially when using power-sigmoid activation functions.

  7. Tourist Arrivals to Sabah by Using Fuzzy Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tarmudi Zamali

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the existing tourist trend arrival in Sabah based on fuzzy approach. It focuses on the latest 12 years (2002 – 2013 visitors arrival based on their nationality for forecasting purposes. Based on Sabah Tourism Board’s data, the tourist arrival continue to grow annually but with an inconsistent number of arrival. This can be seen from the trend of tourist arrival from 2011 to 2012. There is an increase in the number of arrival but only at 1.1 % compared to the other years which are in the rank of 10 – 18% increase in number of arrival per year. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to predict the number of tourist arrival to Sabah. The study employs the modification of Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM and utilizes the flexibility of triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs as well as fuzzy averaging to deal with the yearly inconsistency numbers of visitor’s arrival. Then, the trio levels of alpha (α-cut was used via linguistic variables to assess the confidence of decision made and to overcome the uncertainty of the input data sets. The analysis was carried out using fully data sets obtained from the official website of Sabah tourism board. Results show that our proposed forecasting approach offers a new dimension technique as compared to the traditional statistical method. It also derived more confident decision and precision forecast for Sabah tourism authority planning purposes.

  8. Phase transition of the susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on time-varying configuration model networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    St-Onge, Guillaume; Young, Jean-Gabriel; Laurence, Edward; Murphy, Charles; Dubé, Louis J.

    2018-02-01

    We present a degree-based theoretical framework to study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) dynamics on time-varying (rewired) configuration model networks. Using this framework on a given degree distribution, we provide a detailed analysis of the stationary state using the rewiring rate to explore the whole range of the time variation of the structure relative to that of the SIS process. This analysis is suitable for the characterization of the phase transition and leads to three main contributions: (1) We obtain a self-consistent expression for the absorbing-state threshold, able to capture both collective and hub activation. (2) We recover the predictions of a number of existing approaches as limiting cases of our analysis, providing thereby a unifying point of view for the SIS dynamics on random networks. (3) We obtain bounds for the critical exponents of a number of quantities in the stationary state. This allows us to reinterpret the concept of hub-dominated phase transition. Within our framework, it appears as a heterogeneous critical phenomenon: observables for different degree classes have a different scaling with the infection rate. This phenomenon is followed by the successive activation of the degree classes beyond the epidemic threshold.

  9. Big bang nucleosynthesis with a varying fine structure constant and nonstandard expansion rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichikawa, Kazuhide; Kawasaki, Masahiro

    2004-01-01

    We calculate the primordial abundances of light elements produced during big bang nucleosynthesis when the fine structure constant and/or the cosmic expansion rate take nonstandard values. We compare them with the recent values of observed D, 4 He, and 7 Li abundances, which show a slight inconsistency among themselves in the standard big bang nucleosynthesis scenario. This inconsistency is not solved by considering either a varying fine structure constant or a nonstandard expansion rate separately but solutions are found by their simultaneous existence

  10. Tracking control of time-varying knee exoskeleton disturbed by interaction torque.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhan; Ma, Wenhao; Yin, Ziguang; Guo, Hongliang

    2017-11-01

    Knee exoskeletons have been increasingly applied as assistive devices to help lower-extremity impaired people to make their knee joints move through providing external movement compensation. Tracking control of knee exoskeletons guided by human intentions often encounters time-varying (time-dependent) issues and the disturbance interaction torque, which may dramatically put an influence up on their dynamic behaviors. Inertial and viscous parameters of knee exoskeletons can be estimated to be time-varying due to unexpected mechanical vibrations and contact interactions. Moreover, the interaction torque produced from knee joint of wearers has an evident disturbance effect on regular motions of knee exoskeleton. All of these points can increase difficultly of accurate control of knee exoskeletons to follow desired joint angle trajectories. This paper proposes a novel control strategy for controlling knee exoskeleton with time-varying inertial and viscous coefficients disturbed by interaction torque. Such designed controller is able to make the tracking error of joint angle of knee exoskeletons exponentially converge to zero. Meanwhile, the proposed approach is robust to guarantee the tracking error bounded when the interaction torque exists. Illustrative simulation and experiment results are presented to show efficiency of the proposed controller. Additionally, comparisons with gradient dynamic (GD) approach and other methods are also presented to demonstrate efficiency and superiority of the proposed control strategy for tracking joint angle of knee exoskeleton. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. FREQUENCY-DEPENDENT DISPERSION MEASURES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PULSAR TIMING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cordes, J. M. [Astronomy Department, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States); Shannon, R. M. [CSIRO Astronomy and Space Science, Box 76, Epping, NSW 1710 (Australia); Stinebring, D. R., E-mail: cordes@astro.cornell.edu, E-mail: ryan.shannon@csiro.au, E-mail: dan.stinebring@oberlin.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Oberlin College, Oberlin, OH 44074 (United States)

    2016-01-20

    The dispersion measure (DM), the column density of free electrons to a pulsar, is shown to be frequency dependent because of multipath scattering from small-scale electron-density fluctuations. DMs vary between propagation paths whose transverse extent varies strongly with frequency, yielding arrival times that deviate from the high-frequency scaling expected for a cold, uniform, unmagnetized plasma (1/frequency{sup 2}). Scaling laws for thin phase screens are verified with simulations; extended media are also analyzed. The rms DM difference across an octave band near 1.5 GHz is ∼ 4 × 10{sup −5} pc cm{sup −3} for pulsars at ∼1 kpc distance. The corresponding arrival-time variations are a few to hundreds of nanoseconds for DM ≲ 30 pc cm{sup −3} but increase rapidly to microseconds or more for larger DMs and wider frequency ranges. Chromatic DMs introduce correlated noise into timing residuals with a power spectrum of “low pass” form. The correlation time is roughly the geometric mean of the refraction times for the highest and lowest radio frequencies used, ranging from days to years, depending on the pulsar. We discuss implications for methodologies that use large frequency separations or wide bandwidth receivers for timing measurements. Chromatic DMs are partially mitigable by including an additional chromatic term in arrival time models. Without mitigation, an additional term in the noise model for pulsar timing is implied. In combination with measurement errors from radiometer noise, an arbitrarily large increase in total frequency range (or bandwidth) will yield diminishing benefits and may be detrimental to overall timing precision.

  12. Forced solitary Rossby waves under the influence of slowly varying topography with time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Hong-Wei; Yin Bao-Shu; Yang De-Zhou; Xu Zhen-Hua

    2011-01-01

    By using a weakly nonlinear and perturbation method, the generalized inhomogeneous Korteweg—de Vries (KdV)—Burgers equation is derived, which governs the evolution of the amplitude of Rossby waves under the influence of dissipation and slowly varying topography with time. The analysis indicates that dissipation and slowly varying topography with time are important factors in causing variation in the mass and energy of solitary waves. (general)

  13. Simple approximations for the batch-arrival MX/G/1 queue

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ommeren, Jan C.W.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper we consider the MX/G/I queueing system with batch arrivals. We give simple approximations for the waiting-time probabilities of individual customers. These approximations are checked numerically and they are found to perform very well for a wide variety of batch-size and service-timed

  14. Natural selection for earlier male arrival to breeding grounds through direct and indirect effects in a migratory songbird

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velmala, William; Helle, Samuli; Ahola, Markus P.; Klaassen, M.R.J.; Lehikoinen, Esa; Rainio, Kalle; Sirkia, Paivi M.; Laaksonen, Toni

    2015-01-01

    For migratory birds, the earlier arrival of males to breeding grounds is often expected to have fitness benefits. However, the selection differential on male arrival time has rarely been decomposed into the direct effect of male arrival and potential indirect effects through female traits. We

  15. Simulation-based validation and arrival-time correction for Patlak analyses of Perfusion-CT scans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bredno, Jörg; Hom, Jason; Schneider, Thomas; Wintermark, Max

    2009-02-01

    Blood-brain-barrier (BBB) breakdown is a hypothesized mechanism for hemorrhagic transformation in acute stroke. The Patlak analysis of a Perfusion Computed Tomography (PCT) scan measures the BBB permeability, but the method yields higher estimates when applied to the first pass of the contrast bolus compared to a delayed phase. We present a numerical phantom that simulates vascular and parenchymal time-attenuation curves to determine the validity of permeability measurements obtained with different acquisition protocols. A network of tubes represents the major cerebral arteries ipsi- and contralateral to an ischemic event. These tubes branch off into smaller segments that represent capillary beds. Blood flow in the phantom is freely defined and simulated as non-Newtonian tubular flow. Diffusion of contrast in the vessels and permeation through vessel walls is part of the simulation. The phantom allows us to compare the results of a permeability measurement to the simulated vessel wall status. A Patlak analysis reliably detects areas with BBB breakdown for acquisitions of 240s duration, whereas results obtained from the first pass are biased in areas of reduced blood flow. Compensating for differences in contrast arrival times reduces this bias and gives good estimates of BBB permeability for PCT acquisitions of 90-150s duration.

  16. Global exponential stability of BAM neural networks with time-varying delays: The discrete-time case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, R.; Marshal Anthoni, S.

    2011-02-01

    This paper deals with the problem of stability analysis for a class of discrete-time bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with time-varying delays. By employing the Lyapunov functional and linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, a new sufficient conditions is proposed for the global exponential stability of discrete-time BAM neural networks. The proposed LMI based results can be easily checked by LMI control toolbox. Moreover, an example is also provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  17. Overlapping quadratic optimal control of linear time-varying commutative systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bakule, Lubomír; Rodellar, J.; Rossell, J. M.

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 40, č. 5 (2002), s. 1611-1627 ISSN 0363-0129 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA2075802 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : overlapping * optimal control * linear time-varying systems Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 1.441, year: 2002

  18. Healthcare system information at language schools for newly arrived immigrants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tynell, Lena Lyngholt; Wimmelmann, Camilla Lawaetz; Jervelund, Signe Smith

    2017-01-01

    a language school in Copenhagen in 2012 received either a course or written information on the Danish healthcare system and subsequently evaluated this quantitatively. Results: The evaluation revealed a positive appraisal of the course/information provided. Conclusion: In times of austerity, incorporating......Objective: In most European countries, immigrants do not systematically learn about the host countries’ healthcare system when arriving. This study investigated how newly arrived immigrants perceived the information they received about the Danish healthcare system. Method: Immigrants attending...... healthcare information into an already existing language programme may be pertinent for providing immigrants with knowledge on the healthcare system....

  19. An Explicit MOT-TD-VIE Solver for Time Varying Media

    KAUST Repository

    Sayed, Sadeed Bin

    2016-03-15

    An explicit marching on-in-time (MOT) scheme for solving the time domain electric field integral equation enforced on volumes with time varying dielectric permittivity is proposed. Unknowns of the integral equation and the constitutive relation, i.e., flux density and field intensity, are discretized using full and half Schaubert-Wilton-Glisson functions in space. Temporal interpolation is carried out using band limited approximate prolate spherical wave functions. The discretized coupled system of integral equation and constitutive relation is integrated in time using a PE(CE)m type linear multistep scheme. Unlike the existing MOT methods, the resulting explicit MOT scheme allows for straightforward incorporation of the time variation in the dielectric permittivity.

  20. Time-varying Capital Requirements and Disclosure Rules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kragh, Jonas; Rangvid, Jesper

    , implying that resilience in the banking system is also increased. The increase in capital ratios is partly due to a modest reduction in lending. Using a policy changes, we show that banks react stronger to changes in capital requirements when these are public. Our results further suggest that the impact......Unique and confidential Danish data allow us to identify how changes in disclosure requirements and bank-specific time-varying capital requirements affect banks' lending and capital accumu-lation decisions. We find that banks increase their capital ratios after capital requirements are increased...... of capital requirements differ for small and large banks. Large banks raise their capital ratios more, reduce lending less, and accumulate more new capital compared to small banks....

  1. Time-varying vector fields and their flows

    CERN Document Server

    Jafarpour, Saber

    2014-01-01

    This short book provides a comprehensive and unified treatment of time-varying vector fields under a variety of regularity hypotheses, namely finitely differentiable, Lipschitz, smooth, holomorphic, and real analytic. The presentation of this material in the real analytic setting is new, as is the manner in which the various hypotheses are unified using functional analysis. Indeed, a major contribution of the book is the coherent development of locally convex topologies for the space of real analytic sections of a vector bundle, and the development of this in a manner that relates easily to classically known topologies in, for example, the finitely differentiable and smooth cases. The tools used in this development will be of use to researchers in the area of geometric functional analysis.

  2. 8 CFR 232.3 - Arriving aliens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 8 Aliens and Nationality 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Arriving aliens. 232.3 Section 232.3 Aliens and Nationality DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY IMMIGRATION REGULATIONS DETENTION OF ALIENS FOR PHYSICAL AND MENTAL EXAMINATION § 232.3 Arriving aliens. When a district director has reasonable grounds...

  3. Delay-Dependent Guaranteed Cost Control of an Interval System with Interval Time-Varying Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao Min

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper concerns the problem of the delay-dependent robust stability and guaranteed cost control for an interval system with time-varying delay. The interval system with matrix factorization is provided and leads to less conservative conclusions than solving a square root. The time-varying delay is assumed to belong to an interval and the derivative of the interval time-varying delay is not a restriction, which allows a fast time-varying delay; also its applicability is broad. Based on the Lyapunov-Ktasovskii approach, a delay-dependent criterion for the existence of a state feedback controller, which guarantees the closed-loop system stability, the upper bound of cost function, and disturbance attenuation lever for all admissible uncertainties as well as out perturbation, is proposed in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs. The criterion is derived by free weighting matrices that can reduce the conservatism. The effectiveness has been verified in a number example and the compute results are presented to validate the proposed design method.

  4. Discrete-time recurrent neural networks with time-varying delays: Exponential stability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Yurong; Wang, Zidong; Serrano, Alan; Liu, Xiaohui

    2007-01-01

    This Letter is concerned with the analysis problem of exponential stability for a class of discrete-time recurrent neural networks (DRNNs) with time delays. The delay is of the time-varying nature, and the activation functions are assumed to be neither differentiable nor strict monotonic. Furthermore, the description of the activation functions is more general than the recently commonly used Lipschitz conditions. Under such mild conditions, we first prove the existence of the equilibrium point. Then, by employing a Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, a unified linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach is developed to establish sufficient conditions for the DRNNs to be globally exponentially stable. It is shown that the delayed DRNNs are globally exponentially stable if a certain LMI is solvable, where the feasibility of such an LMI can be easily checked by using the numerically efficient Matlab LMI Toolbox. A simulation example is presented to show the usefulness of the derived LMI-based stability condition

  5. Global exponential stability of uncertain fuzzy BAM neural networks with time-varying delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Syed Ali, M.; Balasubramaniam, P.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, the Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model representation is extended to the stability analysis for uncertain Bidirectional Associative Memory (BAM) neural networks with time-varying delays using linear matrix inequality (LMI) theory. A novel LMI-based stability criterion is obtained by LMI optimization algorithms to guarantee the exponential stability of uncertain BAM neural networks with time-varying delays which are represented by TS fuzzy models. Finally, the proposed stability conditions are demonstrated with numerical examples.

  6. Time-varying market integration and expected returns in emerging mrkets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, F.C.J.M.; de Roon, F.

    2001-01-01

    We use a simple model in which the expected returns in emerging markets depend on their systematicrisk as measured by their beta relative to the world portfolio as well as on the level ofintegration in that market. The level of integration is a time-varying variable that depends on themarket value

  7. Hospitalization rates among economic immigrants to Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Edward; Sanmartin, Claudia; Manuel, Douglas G

    2017-07-19

    Economic immigrants generally, and economic class principal applicants (ECPAs) specifically, tend to have better health than other immigrants. However, health outcomes vary among subcategories within this group, especially by sex. This study examines hospitalization rates among ECPAs aged 25 to 74 who arrived in Canada between 1980 and 2006 as skilled workers, business immigrants, or live-in caregivers. The analysis used two linked databases to estimate age-standardized hospitalization rates (ASHRs) overall and for leading causes by sex. ASHRs of ECPA subcategories were compared with each other and with those of the Canadian-born population. Logistic regression was used to derive odds ratios for hospitalization among ECPAs, by sex. Male and female ECPAs aged 25 to 74 had significantly lower all-cause ASHRs than did the Canadian-born population in the same age range. This pattern prevailed for each ECPA subcategory and for each disease examined. Compared with skilled workers, business immigrants had lower odds of hospitalization; live-in caregivers who arrived after 1992 had higher odds. Adjustment for education, official language proficiency, and world region reduced the strength of or eliminated these associations. Compared with the Canadian-born population, ECPAs generally had low hospitalization rates. Differences were apparent among ECPA subcategories.

  8. Estimation of time-varying reactivity by the H∞ optimal linear filter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Katsuo; Shimazaki, Junya; Watanabe, Koiti

    1995-01-01

    The problem of estimating the time-varying net reactivity from flux measurements is solved for a point reactor kinetics model using a linear filtering technique in an H ∞ settings. In order to sue this technique, an appropriate dynamical model of the reactivity is constructed that can be embedded into the reactor model as one of its variables. A filter, which minimizes the H ∞ norm of the estimation error power spectrum, operates on neutron density measurements corrupted by noise and provides an estimate of the dynamic net reactivity. Computer simulations are performed to reveal the basic characteristics of the H ∞ optimal filter. The results of the simulation indicate that the filter can be used to determine the time-varying reactivity from neutron density measurements that have been corrupted by noise

  9. Globally Asymptotic Stability of Stochastic Nonlinear Systems with Time-Varying Delays via Output Feedback Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingzhu Song

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We address the problem of globally asymptotic stability for a class of stochastic nonlinear systems with time-varying delays. By the backstepping method and Lyapunov theory, we design a linear output feedback controller recursively based on the observable linearization for a class of stochastic nonlinear systems with time-varying delays to guarantee that the closed-loop system is globally asymptotically stable in probability. In particular, we extend the deterministic nonlinear system to stochastic nonlinear systems with time-varying delays. Finally, an example and its simulations are given to illustrate the theoretical results.

  10. Remaining useful life estimation for deteriorating systems with time-varying operational conditions and condition-specific failure zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Qi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic time-varying operational conditions pose great challenge to the estimation of system remaining useful life (RUL for the deteriorating systems. This paper presents a method based on probabilistic and stochastic approaches to estimate system RUL for periodically monitored degradation processes with dynamic time-varying operational conditions and condition-specific failure zones. The method assumes that the degradation rate is influenced by specific operational condition and moreover, the transition between different operational conditions plays the most important role in affecting the degradation process. These operational conditions are assumed to evolve as a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC. The failure thresholds are also determined by specific operational conditions and described as different failure zones. The 2008 PHM Conference Challenge Data is utilized to illustrate our method, which contains mass sensory signals related to the degradation process of a commercial turbofan engine. The RUL estimation method using the sensor measurements of a single sensor was first developed, and then multiple vital sensors were selected through a particular optimization procedure in order to increase the prediction accuracy. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed method are presented in a comparison with existing methods for the same dataset.

  11. Consumption growth and time-varying expected stock returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinther Møller, Stig

    2008-01-01

    When the consumption growth rate is measured based upon fourth quarter data, it tracks predictable variation in future excess stock returns. Low fourth quarter consumption growth rates predict high future excess stock returns such that expected returns are high at business cycle troughs and low...... of each calendar year, and at possibly random times in between. The consumption growth rate measured based upon fourth quarter data is a much stronger predictive variable than benchmark predictive variables such as the dividend-price ratio, the term spread, and the default spread....

  12. Soil erosion under multiple time-varying rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heng, B. C. Peter; Barry, D. Andrew; Jomaa, Seifeddine; Sander, Graham C.

    2010-05-01

    Soil erosion is a function of many factors and process interactions. An erosion event produces changes in surface soil properties such as texture and hydraulic conductivity. These changes in turn alter the erosion response to subsequent events. Laboratory-scale soil erosion studies have typically focused on single independent rainfall events with constant rainfall intensities. This study investigates the effect of multiple time-varying rainfall events on soil erosion using the EPFL erosion flume. The rainfall simulator comprises ten Veejet nozzles mounted on oscillating bars 3 m above a 6 m × 2 m flume. Spray from the nozzles is applied onto the soil surface in sweeps; rainfall intensity is thus controlled by varying the sweeping frequency. Freshly-prepared soil with a uniform slope was subjected to five rainfall events at daily intervals. In each 3-h event, rainfall intensity was ramped up linearly to a maximum of 60 mm/h and then stepped down to zero. Runoff samples were collected and analysed for particle size distribution (PSD) as well as total sediment concentration. We investigate whether there is a hysteretic relationship between sediment concentration and discharge within each event and how this relationship changes from event to event. Trends in the PSD of the eroded sediment are discussed and correlated with changes in sediment concentration. Close-up imagery of the soil surface following each event highlight changes in surface soil structure with time. This study enhances our understanding of erosion processes in the field, with corresponding implications for soil erosion modelling.

  13. Analysis on the Impact of Pop-Up Flight Occurrence when Extending the Arrival Management Horizon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ellerbroek, J.; Hoekstra, J.M.; Westerveld, E

    2017-01-01

    The occurrence of pop-up flights negatively affects the (extended) arrival manager. This issue is known already for a long time by operational experts, but the extent thereof has now been assessed during experiments. An arrival manager research model was developed and integrated in BlueSky, an

  14. Feasibility Criteria for Interval Management Operations as Part of Arrival Management Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levitt, Ian M.; Weitz, Lesley A.; Barmore, Bryan E.; Castle, Michael W.

    2014-01-01

    Interval Management (IM) is a future airborne spacing concept that aims to provide more precise inter-aircraft spacing to yield throughput improvements and greater use of fuel efficient trajectories for arrival and approach operations. To participate in an IM operation, an aircraft must be equipped with avionics that provide speeds to achieve and maintain an assigned spacing interval relative to another aircraft. It is not expected that all aircraft will be equipped with the necessary avionics, but rather that IM fits into a larger arrival management concept developed to support the broader mixed-equipage environment. Arrival management concepts are comprised of three parts: a ground-based sequencing and scheduling function to develop an overall arrival strategy, ground-based tools to support the management of aircraft to that schedule, and the IM tools necessary for the IM operation (i.e., ground-based set-up, initiation, and monitoring, and the flight-deck tools to conduct the IM operation). The Federal Aviation Administration is deploying a near-term ground-automation system to support metering operations in the National Airspace System, which falls within the first two components of the arrival management concept. This paper develops a methodology for determining the required delivery precision at controlled meter points for aircraft that are being managed to a schedule and aircraft being managed to a relative spacing interval in order to achieve desired flow rates and adequate separation at the meter points.

  15. Generalized Projective Synchronization between Two Complex Networks with Time-Varying Coupling Delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mei, Sun; Chang-Yan, Zeng; Li-Xin, Tian

    2009-01-01

    Generalized projective synchronization (GPS) between two complex networks with time-varying coupling delay is investigated. Based on the Lyapunov stability theory, a nonlinear controller and adaptive updated laws are designed. Feasibility of the proposed scheme is proven in theory. Moreover, two numerical examples are presented, using the energy resource system and Lü's system [Physica A 382 (2007) 672] as the nodes of the networks. GPS between two energy resource complex networks with time-varying coupling delay is achieved. This study can widen the application range of the generalized synchronization methods and will be instructive for the demand–supply of energy resource in some regions of China

  16. Compensating Unknown Time-Varying Delay in Opto-Electronic Platform Tracking Servo System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruihong Xie

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the problem of compensating miss-distance delay in opto-electronic platform tracking servo system. According to the characteristic of LOS (light-of-sight motion, we setup the Markovian process model and compensate this unknown time-varying delay by feed-forward forecasting controller based on robust H∞ control. Finally, simulation based on double closed-loop PI (Proportion Integration control system indicates that the proposed method is effective for compensating unknown time-varying delay. Tracking experiments on the opto-electronic platform indicate that RMS (root-mean-square error is 1.253 mrad when tracking 10° 0.2 Hz signal.

  17. Generalized Projective Synchronization between Two Complex Networks with Time-Varying Coupling Delay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Mei; Zeng, Chang-Yan; Tian, Li-Xin

    2009-01-01

    Generalized projective synchronization (GPS) between two complex networks with time-varying coupling delay is investigated. Based on the Lyapunov stability theory, a nonlinear controller and adaptive updated laws are designed. Feasibility of the proposed scheme is proven in theory. Moreover, two numerical examples are presented, using the energy resource system and Lü's system [Physica A 382 (2007) 672] as the nodes of the networks. GPS between two energy resource complex networks with time-varying coupling delay is achieved. This study can widen the application range of the generalized synchronization methods and will be instructive for the demand-supply of energy resource in some regions of China.

  18. Multi-pulse chaotic motions of a rotor-active magnetic bearing system with time-varying stiffness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, W.; Yao, M.H.; Zhan, X.P.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the Shilnikov type multi-pulse chaotic dynamics for a rotor-active magnetic bearings (AMB) system with 8-pole legs and the time-varying stiffness. The stiffness in the AMB is considered as the time-varying in a periodic form. The dimensionless equation of motion for the rotor-AMB system with the time-varying stiffness in the horizontal and vertical directions is a two-degree-of-freedom nonlinear system with quadratic and cubic nonlinearities and parametric excitation. The asymptotic perturbation method is used to obtain the averaged equations in the case of primary parametric resonance and 1/2 subharmonic resonance. It is found from the numerical results that there are the phenomena of the Shilnikov type multi-pulse chaotic motions for the rotor-AMB system. A new jumping phenomenon is discovered in the rotor-AMB system with the time-varying stiffness

  19. Malware Propagation and Prevention Model for Time-Varying Community Networks within Software Defined Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lan Liu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available As the adoption of Software Defined Networks (SDNs grows, the security of SDN still has several unaddressed limitations. A key network security research area is in the study of malware propagation across the SDN-enabled networks. To analyze the spreading processes of network malware (e.g., viruses in SDN, we propose a dynamic model with a time-varying community network, inspired by research models on the spread of epidemics in complex networks across communities. We assume subnets of the network as communities and links that are dense in subnets but sparse between subnets. Using numerical simulation and theoretical analysis, we find that the efficiency of network malware propagation in this model depends on the mobility rate q of the nodes between subnets. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The network malware will spread in the SDN when the mobility rate q>qc. The malware will survive when q>qc and perish when q

  20. Dual Extended Kalman Filter for the Identification of Time-Varying Human Manual Control Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popovici, Alexandru; Zaal, Peter M. T.; Pool, Daan M.

    2017-01-01

    A Dual Extended Kalman Filter was implemented for the identification of time-varying human manual control behavior. Two filters that run concurrently were used, a state filter that estimates the equalization dynamics, and a parameter filter that estimates the neuromuscular parameters and time delay. Time-varying parameters were modeled as a random walk. The filter successfully estimated time-varying human control behavior in both simulated and experimental data. Simple guidelines are proposed for the tuning of the process and measurement covariance matrices and the initial parameter estimates. The tuning was performed on simulation data, and when applied on experimental data, only an increase in measurement process noise power was required in order for the filter to converge and estimate all parameters. A sensitivity analysis to initial parameter estimates showed that the filter is more sensitive to poor initial choices of neuromuscular parameters than equalization parameters, and bad choices for initial parameters can result in divergence, slow convergence, or parameter estimates that do not have a real physical interpretation. The promising results when applied to experimental data, together with its simple tuning and low dimension of the state-space, make the use of the Dual Extended Kalman Filter a viable option for identifying time-varying human control parameters in manual tracking tasks, which could be used in real-time human state monitoring and adaptive human-vehicle haptic interfaces.

  1. Time Varying Market Integration and Expected Rteurns in Emerging Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, F.C.J.M.; de Roon, F.A.

    2001-01-01

    We use a simple model in which the expected returns in emerging markets depend on their systematic risk as measured by their beta relative to the world portfolio as well as on the level of integration in that market.The level of integration is a time-varying variable that depends on the market value

  2. A new time-varying harmonic decomposition structure based on recursive hanning window

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martins, C.H.; Silva, L.R.M.; Duque, C.A.; Cerqueira, A.S.; Teixeira, E.C.; Ribeiro, P.F.

    2012-01-01

    Analysis of power quality phenomena under time-varying conditions has become an important subject as the complexity of the grid increases. As a consequence, several methods have been developed/applied also to study power quality parameters during transient conditions such as time-frequency methods.

  3. Uniform stability for time-varying infinite-dimensional discrete linear systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kubrusly, C.S.

    1988-09-01

    Stability for time-varying discrete linear systems in a Banach space is investigated. On the one hand, it established a fairly complete collection of necessary and sufficient conditions for uniform asymptotic equistability for input-free systems. This includes uniform and strong power equistability, and uniform and strong l p -equistability, among other technical conditions which also play essential role in stability theory. On other hand, it is shown that uniform asymptotic equistability for input-free systems is equivalent to each of the following concepts of uniform stability for forced systems: l p -input l p -state, c o -input c o -state, bounded-input bounded-state, l p>1 -input bounded-state, c sub (o)-input bounded-state, and convergent-input bounded-state; which are also equivalent to their nonuniform counterparts. For time-varying convergent systems, the above is also equivalent to convergent-input convergent-state stability. The proofs presented here are all ''elementary'' in the sense that they are based essentially only on the Banach-Steinhaus theorem. (autor) [pt

  4. Neutron fluctuations in a medium randomly varying in time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lenard, Pal; Imre, Pazsit

    2005-01-01

    The master equation approach, which has traditionally been used for the calculation of neutron fluctuations in zero power systems with constant parameters, is extended to a case when the parameters of the system change randomly in time. We consider a forward type master equation for the probability distribution of the number of particles in a multiplying system whose properties jump randomly between two discrete states, both with and without an external source. The first two factorial moments are calculated, including the covariance. This model can be considered the unification of stochastic methods that were used either in a constant multiplying medium via the master equation technique, or in a fluctuating medium via the Langevin technique. In contrast to these methods, the one presented here can calculate the inherent noise in time-varying systems. The results obtained show a much richer characteristics of the zero power noise than that in constant systems. Even the concept of criticality has to be given a probabilistic interpretation. The asymptotic behaviour of the variance will be also qualitatively different from that in constant systems. The covariance of the neutron number in a subcritical system with a source, and the corresponding power spectrum, shows both the inherent and parametrically induced noise components. The results are relevant in medium power subcritical systems where the zero power noise is still significant, but they also have a bearing on all types of branching processes, such as evolution of biological systems, spreading of epidemics etc., which are set in a time-varying environment. (authors)

  5. Neutron fluctuations in a medium randomly varying in time

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lenard, Pal [KFKI Atomic Energy Research Institute, Budapest (Hungary); Imre, Pazsit [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, SE, Goteborg (Sweden)

    2005-07-01

    The master equation approach, which has traditionally been used for the calculation of neutron fluctuations in zero power systems with constant parameters, is extended to a case when the parameters of the system change randomly in time. We consider a forward type master equation for the probability distribution of the number of particles in a multiplying system whose properties jump randomly between two discrete states, both with and without an external source. The first two factorial moments are calculated, including the covariance. This model can be considered the unification of stochastic methods that were used either in a constant multiplying medium via the master equation technique, or in a fluctuating medium via the Langevin technique. In contrast to these methods, the one presented here can calculate the inherent noise in time-varying systems. The results obtained show a much richer characteristics of the zero power noise than that in constant systems. Even the concept of criticality has to be given a probabilistic interpretation. The asymptotic behaviour of the variance will be also qualitatively different from that in constant systems. The covariance of the neutron number in a subcritical system with a source, and the corresponding power spectrum, shows both the inherent and parametrically induced noise components. The results are relevant in medium power subcritical systems where the zero power noise is still significant, but they also have a bearing on all types of branching processes, such as evolution of biological systems, spreading of epidemics etc., which are set in a time-varying environment. (authors)

  6. Optimal Consumption and Investment under Time-Varying Relative Risk Aversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steffensen, Mogens

    2011-01-01

    We consider the continuous time consumption-investment problem originally formalized and solved by Merton in case of constant relative risk aversion. We present a complete solution for the case where relative risk aversion with respect to consumption varies with time, having in mind an investor...... with age-dependent risk aversion. This provides a new motivation for life-cycle investment rules. We study the optimal consumption and investment rules, in particular in the case where the relative risk aversion with respect to consumption is increasing with age....

  7. Detection of dynamically varying interaural time differences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kohlrausch, Armin; Le Goff, Nicolas; Breebaart, Jeroen

    2010-01-01

    of fringes surrounding the probe is equal to the addition of the effects of the individual fringes. In this contribution, we present behavioral data for the same experimental condition, called dynamically varying ITD detection, but for a wider range of probe and fringe durations. Probe durations varied...

  8. Mean Square Exponential Stability of Stochastic Switched System with Interval Time-Varying Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manlika Rajchakit

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with mean square exponential stability of switched stochastic system with interval time-varying delays. The time delay is any continuous function belonging to a given interval, but not necessary to be differentiable. By constructing a suitable augmented Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional combined with Leibniz-Newton’s formula, a switching rule for the mean square exponential stability of switched stochastic system with interval time-varying delays and new delay-dependent sufficient conditions for the mean square exponential stability of the switched stochastic system are first established in terms of LMIs. Numerical example is given to show the effectiveness of the obtained result.

  9. H ∞ synchronization of the coronary artery system with input time-varying delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Xiao-Meng; Zhao Zhan-Shan; Sun Lian-Kun; Zhang Jing

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the H ∞ synchronization of the coronary artery system with input delay and disturbance. We focus on reducing the conservatism of existing synchronization strategies. Base on the triple integral forms of the Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional (LKF), we utilize single and double integral forms of Wirtinger-based inequality to guarantee that the synchronization feedback controller has good performance against time-varying delay and external disturbance. The effectiveness of our strategy can be exhibited by simulations under the different time-varying delays and different disturbances. (paper)

  10. Algorithm Indicating Moment of P-Wave Arrival Based on Second-Moment Characteristic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakub Sokolowski

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The moment of P-wave arrival can provide us with many information about the nature of a seismic event. Without adequate knowledge regarding the onset moment, many properties of the events related to location, polarization of P-wave, and so forth are impossible to receive. In order to save time required to indicate P-wave arrival moment manually, one can benefit from automatic picking algorithms. In this paper two algorithms based on a method finding a regime switch point are applied to seismic event data in order to find P-wave arrival time. The algorithms are based on signals transformed via a basic transform rather than on raw recordings. They involve partitioning the transformed signal into two separate series and fitting logarithm function to the first subset (which corresponds to pure noise and therefore it is considered stationary, exponent or power function to the second subset (which corresponds to nonstationary seismic event, and finding the point at which these functions best fit the statistic in terms of sum of squared errors. Effectiveness of the algorithms is tested on seismic data acquired from O/ZG “Rudna” underground copper ore mine with moments of P-wave arrival initially picked by broadly known STA/LTA algorithm and then corrected by seismic station specialists. The results of proposed algorithms are compared to those obtained using STA/LTA.

  11. Tracking time-varying coefficient-functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Joensen, Alfred K.

    2000-01-01

    is a combination of recursive least squares with exponential forgetting and local polynomial regression. It is argued, that it is appropriate to let the forgetting factor vary with the value of the external signal which is the argument of the coefficient functions. Some of the key properties of the modified method...... are studied by simulation...

  12. Comparison of Inventory Systems with Service, Positive Lead-Time, Loss, and Retrial of Customers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Krishnamoorthy

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze and compare three (s,S inventory systems with positive service time and retrial of customers. In all of these systems, arrivals of customers form a Poisson process and service times are exponentially distributed. When the inventory level depletes to s due to services, an order of replenishment is placed. The lead-time follows an exponential distribution. In model I, an arriving customer, finding the inventory dry or server busy, proceeds to an orbit with probability γ and is lost forever with probability (1−γ. A retrial customer in the orbit, finding the inventory dry or server busy, returns to the orbit with probability δ and is lost forever with probability (1−δ. In addition to the description in model I, we provide a buffer of varying (finite capacity equal to the current inventory level for model II and another having capacity equal to the maximum inventory level S for model III. In models II and III, an arriving customer, finding the buffer full, proceeds to an orbit with probability γ and is lost forever with probability (1−γ. A retrial customer in the orbit, finding the buffer full, returns to the orbit with probability δ and is lost forever with probability (1−δ. In all these models, the interretrial times are exponentially distributed with linear rate. Using matrix-analytic method, we study these inventory models. Some measures of the system performance in the steady state are derived. A suitable cost function is defined for all three cases and analyzed using graphical illustrations.

  13. Efficient Simulation of Compressible, Viscous Fluids using Multi-rate Time Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikida, Cory; Kloeckner, Andreas; Bodony, Daniel

    2017-11-01

    In the numerical simulation of problems of compressible, viscous fluids with single-rate time integrators, the global timestep used is limited to that of the finest mesh point or fastest physical process. This talk discusses the application of multi-rate Adams-Bashforth (MRAB) integrators to an overset mesh framework to solve compressible viscous fluid problems of varying scale with improved efficiency, with emphasis on the strategy of timescale separation and the application of the resulting numerical method to two sample problems: subsonic viscous flow over a cylinder and a viscous jet in crossflow. The results presented indicate the numerical efficacy of MRAB integrators, outline a number of outstanding code challenges, demonstrate the expected reduction in time enabled by MRAB, and emphasize the need for proper load balancing through spatial decomposition in order for parallel runs to achieve the predicted time-saving benefit. This material is based in part upon work supported by the Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, under Award Number DE-NA0002374.

  14. Time-varying coefficient estimation in SURE models. Application to portfolio management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Casas, Isabel; Ferreira, Eva; Orbe, Susan

    This paper provides a detailed analysis of the asymptotic properties of a kernel estimator for a Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations model with time-varying coefficients (tv-SURE) under very general conditions. Theoretical results together with a simulation study differentiates the cases...

  15. Effects of varying feeding times on fertility and hatchability of broiler ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Effects of varying feeding times on fertility and hatchability of broiler chicken breeders in a tropical environment. ... Journal Home > Vol 65, No 4 (2017) > ... Prior to the eighth week data collection, the birds were allowed to get accustomed to ...

  16. Synchronization of Hierarchical Time-Varying Neural Networks Based on Asynchronous and Intermittent Sampled-Data Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Wenjun; Patel, Ragini; Cao, Jinde; Zheng, Wei Xing

    In this brief, our purpose is to apply asynchronous and intermittent sampled-data control methods to achieve the synchronization of hierarchical time-varying neural networks. The asynchronous and intermittent sampled-data controllers are proposed for two reasons: 1) the controllers may not transmit the control information simultaneously and 2) the controllers cannot always exist at any time . The synchronization is then discussed for a kind of hierarchical time-varying neural networks based on the asynchronous and intermittent sampled-data controllers. Finally, the simulation results are given to illustrate the usefulness of the developed criteria.In this brief, our purpose is to apply asynchronous and intermittent sampled-data control methods to achieve the synchronization of hierarchical time-varying neural networks. The asynchronous and intermittent sampled-data controllers are proposed for two reasons: 1) the controllers may not transmit the control information simultaneously and 2) the controllers cannot always exist at any time . The synchronization is then discussed for a kind of hierarchical time-varying neural networks based on the asynchronous and intermittent sampled-data controllers. Finally, the simulation results are given to illustrate the usefulness of the developed criteria.

  17. Modal Vibration Control in Periodic Time-Varying Structures with Focus on Rotor Blade Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Rene Hardam; Santos, Ilmar

    2004-01-01

    of active modal controllers. The main aim is to reduce vibrations in periodic time-varying structures. Special emphasis is given to vibration control of coupled bladed rotor systems. A state feedback modal control law is developed based on modal analysis in periodic time-varying structures. The first step...... in the procedure is a transformation of the model into a time-invariant modal form by applying the modal matrices, which are also periodic time-variant. Due to coupled rotor and blade motions complex vibration modes occur in the modal transformed state space model. This implies that the modal transformed model...

  18. State space modeling of time-varying contemporaneous and lagged relations in connectivity maps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Peter C M; Beltz, Adriene M; Gates, Kathleen M; Wilson, Stephen J

    2016-01-15

    Most connectivity mapping techniques for neuroimaging data assume stationarity (i.e., network parameters are constant across time), but this assumption does not always hold true. The authors provide a description of a new approach for simultaneously detecting time-varying (or dynamic) contemporaneous and lagged relations in brain connectivity maps. Specifically, they use a novel raw data likelihood estimation technique (involving a second-order extended Kalman filter/smoother embedded in a nonlinear optimizer) to determine the variances of the random walks associated with state space model parameters and their autoregressive components. The authors illustrate their approach with simulated and blood oxygen level-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging data from 30 daily cigarette smokers performing a verbal working memory task, focusing on seven regions of interest (ROIs). Twelve participants had dynamic directed functional connectivity maps: Eleven had one or more time-varying contemporaneous ROI state loadings, and one had a time-varying autoregressive parameter. Compared to smokers without dynamic maps, smokers with dynamic maps performed the task with greater accuracy. Thus, accurate detection of dynamic brain processes is meaningfully related to behavior in a clinical sample. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  19. GEOM/GEOM[a]/1/ queue with late arrival system with delayed access and delayed multiple working vacations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Jiang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers a discrete-time bulk-service queue with infinite buffer space and delay multiple working vacations. Considering a late arrival system with delayed access (LAS-AD, it is assumed that the inter-arrival times, service times, vacation times are all geometrically distributed. The server does not take a vacation immediately at service complete epoch but keeps idle period. According to a bulk-service rule, at least one customer is needed to start a service with a maximum serving capacity 'a'. Using probability analysis method and displacement operator method, the queue length and the probability generating function of waiting time at pre-arrival epochs are obtained. Furthermore, the outside observer’s observation epoch queue length distributions are given. Finally, computational examples with numerical results in the form of graphs and tables are discussed.

  20. Fluctuating interaction network and time-varying stability of a natural fish community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ushio, Masayuki; Hsieh, Chih-Hao; Masuda, Reiji; Deyle, Ethan R.; Ye, Hao; Chang, Chun-Wei; Sugihara, George; Kondoh, Michio

    2018-02-01

    Ecological theory suggests that large-scale patterns such as community stability can be influenced by changes in interspecific interactions that arise from the behavioural and/or physiological responses of individual species varying over time. Although this theory has experimental support, evidence from natural ecosystems is lacking owing to the challenges of tracking rapid changes in interspecific interactions (known to occur on timescales much shorter than a generation time) and then identifying the effect of such changes on large-scale community dynamics. Here, using tools for analysing nonlinear time series and a 12-year-long dataset of fortnightly collected observations on a natural marine fish community in Maizuru Bay, Japan, we show that short-term changes in interaction networks influence overall community dynamics. Among the 15 dominant species, we identify 14 interspecific interactions to construct a dynamic interaction network. We show that the strengths, and even types, of interactions change with time; we also develop a time-varying stability measure based on local Lyapunov stability for attractor dynamics in non-equilibrium nonlinear systems. We use this dynamic stability measure to examine the link between the time-varying interaction network and community stability. We find seasonal patterns in dynamic stability for this fish community that broadly support expectations of current ecological theory. Specifically, the dominance of weak interactions and higher species diversity during summer months are associated with higher dynamic stability and smaller population fluctuations. We suggest that interspecific interactions, community network structure and community stability are dynamic properties, and that linking fluctuating interaction networks to community-level dynamic properties is key to understanding the maintenance of ecological communities in nature.

  1. Exponential stability for stochastic delayed recurrent neural networks with mixed time-varying delays and impulses: the continuous-time case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karthik Raja, U; Leelamani, A; Raja, R; Samidurai, R

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, the exponential stability for a class of stochastic neural networks with time-varying delays and impulsive effects is considered. By constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals and by using the linear matrix inequality optimization approach, we obtain sufficient delay-dependent criteria to ensure the exponential stability of stochastic neural networks with time-varying delays and impulses. Two numerical examples with simulation results are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the obtained results over those already existing in the literature. (paper)

  2. A discrete time-varying internal model-based approach for high precision tracking of a multi-axis servo gantry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhen; Yan, Peng; Jiang, Huan; Ye, Peiqing

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, we consider the discrete time-varying internal model-based control design for high precision tracking of complicated reference trajectories generated by time-varying systems. Based on a novel parallel time-varying internal model structure, asymptotic tracking conditions for the design of internal model units are developed, and a low order robust time-varying stabilizer is further synthesized. In a discrete time setting, the high precision tracking control architecture is deployed on a Voice Coil Motor (VCM) actuated servo gantry system, where numerical simulations and real time experimental results are provided, achieving the tracking errors around 3.5‰ for frequency-varying signals. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Intercoalescence time distribution of incomplete gene genealogies in temporally varying populations, and applications in population genetic inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hua

    2013-03-01

    Tracing back to a specific time T in the past, the genealogy of a sample of haplotypes may not have reached their common ancestor and may leave m lineages extant. For such an incomplete genealogy truncated at a specific time T in the past, the distribution and expectation of the intercoalescence times conditional on T are derived in an exact form in this paper for populations of deterministically time-varying sizes, specifically, for populations growing exponentially. The derived intercoalescence time distribution can be integrated to the coalescent-based joint allele frequency spectrum (JAFS) theory, and is useful for population genetic inference from large-scale genomic data, without relying on computationally intensive approaches, such as importance sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The inference of several important parameters relying on this derived conditional distribution is demonstrated: quantifying population growth rate and onset time, and estimating the number of ancestral lineages at a specific ancient time. Simulation studies confirm validity of the derivation and statistical efficiency of the methods using the derived intercoalescence time distribution. Two examples of real data are given to show the inference of the population growth rate of a European sample from the NIEHS Environmental Genome Project, and the number of ancient lineages of 31 mitochondrial genomes from Tibetan populations. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/University College London.

  4. Simulation of biochemical reactions with time-dependent rates by the rejection-based algorithm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thanh, Vo Hong, E-mail: vo@cosbi.eu [The Microsoft Research - University of Trento Centre for Computational and Systems Biology, Piazza Manifattura 1, Rovereto 38068 (Italy); Priami, Corrado, E-mail: priami@cosbi.eu [The Microsoft Research - University of Trento Centre for Computational and Systems Biology, Piazza Manifattura 1, Rovereto 38068 (Italy); Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Trento (Italy)

    2015-08-07

    We address the problem of simulating biochemical reaction networks with time-dependent rates and propose a new algorithm based on our rejection-based stochastic simulation algorithm (RSSA) [Thanh et al., J. Chem. Phys. 141(13), 134116 (2014)]. The computation for selecting next reaction firings by our time-dependent RSSA (tRSSA) is computationally efficient. Furthermore, the generated trajectory is exact by exploiting the rejection-based mechanism. We benchmark tRSSA on different biological systems with varying forms of reaction rates to demonstrate its applicability and efficiency. We reveal that for nontrivial cases, the selection of reaction firings in existing algorithms introduces approximations because the integration of reaction rates is very computationally demanding and simplifying assumptions are introduced. The selection of the next reaction firing by our approach is easier while preserving the exactness.

  5. Dietary adaptation of FADS genes in Europe varied across time and geography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Kaixiong; Gao, Feng; Wang, David; Bar-Yosef, Ofer; Keinan, Alon

    2017-05-26

    Fatty acid desaturase (FADS) genes encode rate-limiting enzymes for the biosynthesis of omega-6 and omega-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPUFAs). This biosynthesis is essential for individuals subsisting on LCPUFA-poor diets (for example, plant-based). Positive selection on FADS genes has been reported in multiple populations, but its cause and pattern in Europeans remain unknown. Here we demonstrate, using ancient and modern DNA, that positive selection acted on the same FADS variants both before and after the advent of farming in Europe, but on opposite (that is, alternative) alleles. Recent selection in farmers also varied geographically, with the strongest signal in southern Europe. These varying selection patterns concur with anthropological evidence of varying diets, and with the association of farming-adaptive alleles with higher FADS1 expression and thus enhanced LCPUFA biosynthesis. Genome-wide association studies reveal that farming-adaptive alleles not only increase LCPUFAs, but also affect other lipid levels and protect against several inflammatory diseases.

  6. Cesarean Delivery Rates Vary 10-Fold Among US Hospitals; Reducing Variation May Address Quality, Cost Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozhimannil, Katy Backes; Law, Michael R.; Virnig, Beth A.

    2013-01-01

    Cesarean delivery is the most commonly performed surgical procedure in the United States, and cesarean rates are increasing. Working with 2009 data from 593 US hospitals nationwide, we found that cesarean rates varied tenfold across hospitals, from 7.1 percent to 69.9 percent. Even for women with lower-risk pregnancies, in which more limited variation might be expected, cesarean rates varied fifteen-fold, from 2.4 percent to 36.5 percent. Thus, vast differences in practice patterns are likely to be driving the costly overuse of cesarean delivery in many US hospitals. Because Medicaid pays for nearly half of US births, government efforts to decrease variation are warranted. We focus on four promising directions for reducing these variations, including better coordination of maternity care, more data collection and measurement, tying Medicaid payment to quality improvement, and enhancing patient-centered decision making through public reporting. PMID:23459732

  7. Disease surveillance among newly arriving refugees and immigrants--Electronic Disease Notification System, United States, 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Deborah; Philen, Rossanne; Wang, Zanju; McSpadden, Pamela; Posey, Drew L; Ortega, Luis S; Weinberg, Michelle S; Brown, Clive; Zhou, Weigong; Painter, John A

    2013-11-15

    Approximately 450,000 legal permanent immigrants and 75,000 refugees enter the United States annually after receiving required medical examinations by overseas panel physicians (physicians who follow the CDC medical screening guidelines provided to the U.S. Department of State). CDC has the regulatory responsibility for preventing the introduction, transmission, and spread of communicable diseases into the United States as well as for developing the guidelines, known as technical instructions, for the overseas medical examinations. Other conditions that are not infectious might preclude an immigrant or refugee from entering the United States and also are reported as part of the medical examination. After arrival in the United States, all refugees are recommended to obtain a medical assessment by a health-care provider or a health department within 30 days. In addition, immigrants with certain medical conditions such as noninfectious tuberculosis at the time of the original medical examination are recommended to be evaluated after arrival to ensure that appropriate prevention or treatment measures are instituted. Health departments need timely and accurate notifications of newly arriving immigrants, refugees, and persons with other visa types to facilitate these evaluations. Notifications for all newly arriving refugees (with or without medical conditions) and immigrants with medical conditions are provided by CDC's Electronic Disease Notification (EDN) system. This is the first report describing EDN. This report summarizes notifications by the EDN system during January-December 2009. The EDN system is a centralized electronic reporting system that collects health information on newly arriving refugees and immigrants with Class A and Class B medical conditions. Class A conditions render applicants inadmissible and require a waiver for entry; Class B conditions are admissible but might require treatment or follow-up. Information in the EDN system is used to notify

  8. Cancellation of spurious arrivals in Green's function extraction and the generalized optical theorem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snieder, R.; Van Wijk, K.; Haney, M.; Calvert, R.

    2008-01-01

    The extraction of the Green's function by cross correlation of waves recorded at two receivers nowadays finds much application. We show that for an arbitrary small scatterer, the cross terms of scattered waves give an unphysical wave with an arrival time that is independent of the source position. This constitutes an apparent inconsistency because theory predicts that such spurious arrivals do not arise, after integration over a complete source aperture. This puzzling inconsistency can be resolved for an arbitrary scatterer by integrating the contribution of all sources in the stationary phase approximation to show that the stationary phase contributions to the source integral cancel the spurious arrival by virtue of the generalized optical theorem. This work constitutes an alternative derivation of this theorem. When the source aperture is incomplete, the spurious arrival is not canceled and could be misinterpreted to be part of the Green's function. We give an example of how spurious arrivals provide information about the medium complementary to that given by the direct and scattered waves; the spurious waves can thus potentially be used to better constrain the medium. ?? 2008 The American Physical Society.

  9. Estimation of Time-Varying Coherence and Its Application in Understanding Brain Functional Connectivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Liu

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Time-varying coherence is a powerful tool for revealing functional dynamics between different regions in the brain. In this paper, we address ways of estimating evolutionary spectrum and coherence using the general Cohen's class distributions. We show that the intimate connection between the Cohen's class-based spectra and the evolutionary spectra defined on the locally stationary time series can be linked by the kernel functions of the Cohen's class distributions. The time-varying spectra and coherence are further generalized with the Stockwell transform, a multiscale time-frequency representation. The Stockwell measures can be studied in the framework of the Cohen's class distributions with a generalized frequency-dependent kernel function. A magnetoencephalography study using the Stockwell coherence reveals an interesting temporal interaction between contralateral and ipsilateral motor cortices under the multisource interference task.

  10. Robust outer synchronization between two nonlinear complex networks with parametric disturbances and mixed time-varying delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chuan; Wang, Xingyuan; Luo, Chao; Li, Junqiu; Wang, Chunpeng

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, we focus on the robust outer synchronization problem between two nonlinear complex networks with parametric disturbances and mixed time-varying delays. Firstly, a general complex network model is proposed. Besides the nonlinear couplings, the network model in this paper can possess parametric disturbances, internal time-varying delay, discrete time-varying delay and distributed time-varying delay. Then, according to the robust control strategy, linear matrix inequality and Lyapunov stability theory, several outer synchronization protocols are strictly derived. Simple linear matrix controllers are designed to driver the response network synchronize to the drive network. Additionally, our results can be applied on the complex networks without parametric disturbances. Finally, by utilizing the delayed Lorenz chaotic system as the dynamics of all nodes, simulation examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of our theoretical results.

  11. Improvement of and Parameter Identification for the Bimodal Time-Varying Modified Kanai-Tajimi Power Spectral Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiguo Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the Kanai-Tajimi power spectrum filtering method proposed by Du Xiuli et al., a genetic algorithm and a quadratic optimization identification technique are employed to improve the bimodal time-varying modified Kanai-Tajimi power spectral model and the parameter identification method proposed by Vlachos et al. Additionally, a method for modeling time-varying power spectrum parameters for ground motion is proposed. The 8244 Orion and Chi-Chi earthquake accelerograms are selected as examples for time-varying power spectral model parameter identification and ground motion simulations to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the improved bimodal time-varying modified Kanai-Tajimi power spectral model. The results of this study provide important references for designing ground motion inputs for seismic analyses of major engineering structures.

  12. Improving perfusion quantification in arterial spin labeling for delayed arrival times by using optimized acquisition schemes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramme, Johanna; Diehl, Volker; Madai, Vince I.; Sobesky, Jan; Guenther, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    The improvement in Arterial Spin Labeling (ASL) perfusion quantification, especially for delayed bolus arrival times (BAT), with an acquisition redistribution scheme mitigating the T1 decay of the label in multi-TI ASL measurements is investigated. A multi inflow time (TI) 3D-GRASE sequence is presented which adapts the distribution of acquisitions accordingly, by keeping the scan time constant. The MR sequence increases the number of averages at long TIs and decreases their number at short TIs and thus compensating the T1 decay of the label. The improvement of perfusion quantification is evaluated in simulations as well as in-vivo in healthy volunteers and patients with prolonged BATs due to age or steno-occlusive disease. The improvement in perfusion quantification depends on BAT. At healthy BATs the differences are small, but become larger for longer BATs typically found in certain diseases. The relative error of perfusion is improved up to 30% at BATs > 1500 ms in comparison to the standard acquisition scheme. This adapted acquisition scheme improves the perfusion measurement in comparison to standard multi-TI ASL implementations. It provides relevant benefit in clinical conditions that cause prolonged BATs and is therefore of high clinical relevance for neuroimaging of steno-occlusive diseases.

  13. Multimodal Pilot Behavior in Multi-Axis Tracking Tasks with Time-Varying Motion Cueing Gains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaal, P. M. T; Pool, D. M.

    2014-01-01

    In a large number of motion-base simulators, adaptive motion filters are utilized to maximize the use of the available motion envelope of the motion system. However, not much is known about how the time-varying characteristics of such adaptive filters affect pilots when performing manual aircraft control. This paper presents the results of a study investigating the effects of time-varying motion filter gains on pilot control behavior and performance. An experiment was performed in a motion-base simulator where participants performed a simultaneous roll and pitch tracking task, while the roll and/or pitch motion filter gains changed over time. Results indicate that performance increases over time with increasing motion gains. This increase is a result of a time-varying adaptation of pilots' equalization dynamics, characterized by increased visual and motion response gains and decreased visual lead time constants. Opposite trends are found for decreasing motion filter gains. Even though the trends in both controlled axes are found to be largely the same, effects are less significant in roll. In addition, results indicate minor cross-coupling effects between pitch and roll, where a cueing variation in one axis affects the behavior adopted in the other axis.

  14. Conditional CAPM: Time-varying Betas in the Brazilian Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frances Fischberg Blank

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The conditional CAPM is characterized by time-varying market beta. Based on state-space models approach, beta behavior can be modeled as a stochastic process dependent on conditioning variables related to business cycle and estimated using Kalman filter. This paper studies alternative models for portfolios sorted by size and book-to-market ratio in the Brazilian stock market and compares their adjustment to data. Asset pricing tests based on time-series and cross-sectional approaches are also implemented. A random walk process combined with conditioning variables is the preferred model, reducing pricing errors compared to unconditional CAPM, but the errors are still significant. Cross-sectional test show that book-to-market ratio becomes less relevant, but past returns still capture cross-section variation

  15. Wavelet ridge diagnosis of time-varying elliptical signals with application to an oceanic eddy

    OpenAIRE

    Lilly , J. M.; Gascard , Jean-Claude

    2006-01-01

    International audience; A method for diagnosing the physical properties of a time-varying ellipse is presented. This essentially involves extending the notion of instantaneous frequency to the bivariate case. New complications, and possibilities, arise from the fact that there are several meaningful forms in which a time-varying ellipse may be represented. A perturbation analysis valid for the near-circular case clarifies these issues. Diagnosis of the ellipse properties may then be performed...

  16. A broad-application microchannel-plate detector system for advanced particle or photon detection tasks large area imaging, precise multi-hit timing information and high detection rate

    CERN Document Server

    Jagutzki, O; Mergel, V; Schmidt-Böcking, H; Spielberger, L; Spillmann, U; Ullmann-Pfleger, K

    2002-01-01

    New applications for single particle and photon detection in many fields require both large area imaging performance and precise time information on each detected particle. Moreover, a very high data acquisition rate is desirable for most applications and eventually the detection and imaging of more than one particle arriving within a microsecond is required. Commercial CCD systems lack the timing information whereas other electronic microchannel plate (MCP) read-out schemes usually suffer from a low acquisition rate and complicated and sometimes costly read-out electronics. We have designed and tested a complete imaging system consisting of an MCP position readout with helical wire delay-lines, single-unit amplifier box and PC-controlled time-to-digital converter (TDC) readout. The system is very flexible and can detect and analyse position and timing information at single particle rates beyond 1 MHz. Alternatively, multi-hit events can be collected and analysed at about 20 kHz rate. We discuss the advantage...

  17. Behavioral tactics of male sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) under varying operating sex ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Thomas P.; Adkison, Milo D.; Ward, Michael B.

    1996-01-01

    Previous studies have demonstrated several reproductive-behavior patterns in male salmon, including competitive and sneaking tactics, the formation of hierarchies, and non-hierarchical aggregations around ripe females. Through behavioral observations at varying spatial and temporal scales, we examined the hypothesis that operational sex ratio (OSR) determines male sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) distribution and breeding tactics. Patterns of male distribution and behavior varied over both coarse and fine scales, associated with apparent shifts in reproductive opportunities, the physical characteristics of the breeding sites, and the deterioration of the fish as they approached death. Females spawned completely within a few days of arriving on the spawning grounds, whereas males courted the available ripe females from the date of their arrival on the spawning ground until their death. This difference in reproductive lifespans tended to elevate late-season OSRs but was partially counterbalanced by male departures and the arrival of other ripe females. The proportion of males able to dominate access to ripe females decreased and the number of large courting groups increased over the course of the season, apparently related to both increasing OSR and the deteriorating physical condition of males. However, great variation in OSR was observed within the spawning sites on a given day. OSRs were generally higher in shallow than in deep water, perhaps because larger females or more desirable breeding sites were concentrated in shallow water. The aggregations of males courting females were not stable (i.e. many arrivals and departures took place) and male aggression varied with group size. Aggression was most frequent at low OSRs and in groups of intermediate size (2–4 males per female), and much less frequent in larger groups, consistent with the needs of maximizing reproductive opportunities while minimizing unproductive energy expenditure. These results indicate

  18. Matrix-Geometric Method for Queueing Model with State-Dependent Arrival of an Unreliable Server and PH Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.ReniSagaya Raj

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider a state-dependent queueing system in which the system is subject to random breakdowns. Customer arrive at the system randomly following a Poisson process with state-dependent rates. Service times follows PH distribution and repair times are exponentially distributed. The server may fail to service with probability depending on the number of customer completed since the last repair. The main result of this paper is the matrix-geometric solution of the steady-state queue length from which many performance measurements of this queueing system like the stationary queue length distribution, waiting time distribution and the distribution of regular busy period, system utilization are obtained. Numerical examples are presented for both cases.

  19. Improved modified energy ratio method using a multi-window approach for accurate arrival picking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Minho; Byun, Joongmoo; Kim, Dowan; Choi, Jihun; Kim, Myungsun

    2017-04-01

    To identify accurately the location of microseismic events generated during hydraulic fracture stimulation, it is necessary to detect the first break of the P- and S-wave arrival times recorded at multiple receivers. These microseismic data often contain high-amplitude noise, which makes it difficult to identify the P- and S-wave arrival times. The short-term-average to long-term-average (STA/LTA) and modified energy ratio (MER) methods are based on the differences in the energy densities of the noise and signal, and are widely used to identify the P-wave arrival times. The MER method yields more consistent results than the STA/LTA method for data with a low signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio. However, although the MER method shows good results regardless of the delay of the signal wavelet for signals with a high S/N ratio, it may yield poor results if the signal is contaminated by high-amplitude noise and does not have the minimum delay. Here we describe an improved MER (IMER) method, whereby we apply a multiple-windowing approach to overcome the limitations of the MER method. The IMER method contains calculations of an additional MER value using a third window (in addition to the original MER window), as well as the application of a moving average filter to each MER data point to eliminate high-frequency fluctuations in the original MER distributions. The resulting distribution makes it easier to apply thresholding. The proposed IMER method was applied to synthetic and real datasets with various S/N ratios and mixed-delay wavelets. The results show that the IMER method yields a high accuracy rate of around 80% within five sample errors for the synthetic datasets. Likewise, in the case of real datasets, 94.56% of the P-wave picking results obtained by the IMER method had a deviation of less than 0.5 ms (corresponding to 2 samples) from the manual picks.

  20. Generation time, life history and the substitution rate of neutral mutations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehtonen, Jussi; Lanfear, Robert

    2014-11-01

    Our understanding of molecular evolution is hampered by a lack of quantitative predictions about how life-history (LH) traits should correlate with substitution rates. Comparative studies have shown that neutral substitution rates vary substantially between species, and evidence shows that much of this diversity is associated with variation in LH traits. However, while these studies often agree, some unexplained and contradictory results have emerged. Explaining these results is difficult without a clear theoretical understanding of the problem. In this study, we derive predictions for the relationships between LH traits and substitution rates in iteroparous species by using demographic theory to relate commonly measured life-history traits to genetic generation time, and by implication to neutral substitution rates. This provides some surprisingly simple explanations for otherwise confusing patterns, such as the association between fecundity and substitution rates. The same framework can be applied to more complex life histories if full life-tables are available. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  1. 9 CFR 93.804 - Declaration upon arrival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... FOR MEANS OF CONVEYANCE AND SHIPPING CONTAINERS Elephants, Hippopotami, Rhinoceroses, and Tapirs § 93.804 Declaration upon arrival. Upon arrival of an elephant, hippopotamus, rhinoceros, or tapir at a..., rhinoceros, or tapir was shipped; (h) The number, species, and purpose of importation of the elephant...

  2. Inflation and late-time acceleration in braneworld cosmological models with varying brane tension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, K.C.; Cheng, K.S.; Harko, T.

    2010-01-01

    Braneworld models with variable brane tension λ introduce a new degree of freedom that allows for evolving gravitational and cosmological constants, the latter being a natural candidate for dark energy. We consider a thermodynamic interpretation of the varying brane tension models, by showing that the field equations with variable λ can be interpreted as describing matter creation in a cosmological framework. The particle creation rate is determined by the variation rate of the brane tension, as well as by the brane-bulk energy-matter transfer rate. We investigate the effect of a variable brane tension on the cosmological evolution of the Universe, in the framework of a particular model in which the brane tension is an exponentially dependent function of the scale factor. The resulting cosmology shows the presence of an initial inflationary expansion, followed by a decelerating phase, and by a smooth transition towards a late accelerated de Sitter type expansion. The varying brane tension is also responsible for the generation of the matter in the Universe (reheating period). The physical constraints on the model parameters, resulting from the observational cosmological data, are also investigated. (orig.)

  3. Applications, dosimetry and biological interactions of static and time-varying magnetic fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tenforde, T.S.

    1988-08-01

    The primary topics of this presentation include: (1) the applications of magnetic fields in research, industry, and medical technologies; (2) mechanisms of interaction of static and time-varying magnetic fields with living systems; (3) human health effects of exposure to static and time-varying magnetic fields in occupational, medical, and residential settings; and (4) recent advances in the dosimetry of extremely-low-frequency electromagnetic fields. The discussion of these topics is centered about two issues of considerable contemporary interest: (1) potential health effects of the fields used in magnetic resonance imaging and in vivo spectroscopy, and (2) the controversial issue of whether exposure to extremely-low-frequency (ELF) electromagnetic fields in the home and workplace leads to an elevated risk of cancer. 11 refs

  4. A simple analytical model for dynamics of time-varying target leverage ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, C. F.; Hui, C. H.

    2012-03-01

    In this paper we have formulated a simple theoretical model for the dynamics of the time-varying target leverage ratio of a firm under some assumptions based upon empirical observations. In our theoretical model the time evolution of the target leverage ratio of a firm can be derived self-consistently from a set of coupled Ito's stochastic differential equations governing the leverage ratios of an ensemble of firms by the nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation approach. The theoretically derived time paths of the target leverage ratio bear great resemblance to those used in the time-dependent stationary-leverage (TDSL) model [Hui et al., Int. Rev. Financ. Analy. 15, 220 (2006)]. Thus, our simple model is able to provide a theoretical foundation for the selected time paths of the target leverage ratio in the TDSL model. We also examine how the pace of the adjustment of a firm's target ratio, the volatility of the leverage ratio and the current leverage ratio affect the dynamics of the time-varying target leverage ratio. Hence, with the proposed dynamics of the time-dependent target leverage ratio, the TDSL model can be readily applied to generate the default probabilities of individual firms and to assess the default risk of the firms.

  5. Computing angle of arrival of radio signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borchardt, John J.; Steele, David K.

    2017-11-07

    Various technologies pertaining to computing angle of arrival of radio signals are described. A system that is configured for computing the angle of arrival of a radio signal includes a cylindrical sheath wrapped around a cylindrical object, where the cylindrical sheath acts as a ground plane. The system further includes a plurality of antennas that are positioned about an exterior surface of the cylindrical sheath, and receivers respectively coupled to the antennas. The receivers output measurements pertaining to the radio signal. A processing circuit receives the measurements and computes the angle of arrival of the radio signal based upon the measurements.

  6. Delay-Dependent Guaranteed Cost H∞ Control of an Interval System with Interval Time-Varying Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongke Shi

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper concerns the problem of the delay-dependent robust stability and guaranteed cost H∞ control for an interval system with time-varying delay. The interval system with matrix factorization is provided and leads to less conservative conclusions than solving a square root. The time-varying delay is assumed to belong to an interval and the derivative of the interval time-varying delay is not a restriction, which allows a fast time-varying delay; also its applicability is broad. Based on the Lyapunov-Ktasovskii approach, a delay-dependent criterion for the existence of a state feedback controller, which guarantees the closed-loop system stability, the upper bound of cost function, and disturbance attenuation lever for all admissible uncertainties as well as out perturbation, is proposed in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs. The criterion is derived by free weighting matrices that can reduce the conservatism. The effectiveness has been verified in a number example and the compute results are presented to validate the proposed design method.

  7. Observation of time-varying photoconductivity and persistent photoconductivity in porous silicon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frello, T.; Veje, E.; Leistiko, Otto

    1996-01-01

    We have observed time-varying photoconductivity and persistent photoconductivity in porous silicon, both with time-evolution scales of the order of several minutes or hours. The time evolutions depend on the wavelength and the intensity of the illuminating light. The data indicate the presence...... of at least two competing mechanisms, one is tentatively related to photoinduced creation of charge carriers in the silicon substrate followed by diffusion into the porous silicon layer, and the other is tentatively related to desorption of hydrogen from the porous silicon. ©1996 American Institute of Physics....

  8. Estimating the impact of newly arrived foreign-born persons on tuberculosis in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yecai Liu

    Full Text Available Among approximately 163.5 million foreign-born persons admitted to the United States annually, only 500,000 immigrants and refugees are required to undergo overseas tuberculosis (TB screening. It is unclear what extent of the unscreened nonimmigrant visitors contributes to the burden of foreign-born TB in the United States.We defined foreign-born persons within 1 year after arrival in the United States as "newly arrived", and utilized data from U.S. Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and World Health Organization to estimate the incidence of TB among newly arrived foreign-born persons in the United States. During 2001 through 2008, 11,500 TB incident cases, including 291 multidrug-resistant TB incident cases, were estimated to occur among 20,989,738 person-years for the 1,479,542,654 newly arrived foreign-born persons in the United States. Of the 11,500 estimated TB incident cases, 41.6% (4,783 occurred among immigrants and refugees, 36.6% (4,211 among students/exchange visitors and temporary workers, 13.8% (1,589 among tourists and business travelers, and 7.3% (834 among Canadian and Mexican nonimmigrant visitors without an I-94 form (e.g., arrival-departure record. The top 3 newly arrived foreign-born populations with the largest estimated TB incident cases per 100,000 admissions were immigrants and refugees from high-incidence countries (e.g., 2008 WHO-estimated TB incidence rate of ≥100 cases/100,000 population/year; 235.8 cases/100,000 admissions, 95% confidence interval [CI], 228.3 to 243.3, students/exchange visitors and temporary workers from high-incidence countries (60.9 cases/100,000 admissions, 95% CI, 58.5 to 63.3, and immigrants and refugees from medium-incidence countries (e.g., 2008 WHO-estimated TB incidence rate of 15-99 cases/100,000 population/year; 55.2 cases/100,000 admissions, 95% CI, 51.6 to 58.8.Newly arrived nonimmigrant visitors contribute substantially to the burden of

  9. Estimating the impact of newly arrived foreign-born persons on tuberculosis in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yecai; Painter, John A; Posey, Drew L; Cain, Kevin P; Weinberg, Michelle S; Maloney, Susan A; Ortega, Luis S; Cetron, Martin S

    2012-01-01

    Among approximately 163.5 million foreign-born persons admitted to the United States annually, only 500,000 immigrants and refugees are required to undergo overseas tuberculosis (TB) screening. It is unclear what extent of the unscreened nonimmigrant visitors contributes to the burden of foreign-born TB in the United States. We defined foreign-born persons within 1 year after arrival in the United States as "newly arrived", and utilized data from U.S. Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and World Health Organization to estimate the incidence of TB among newly arrived foreign-born persons in the United States. During 2001 through 2008, 11,500 TB incident cases, including 291 multidrug-resistant TB incident cases, were estimated to occur among 20,989,738 person-years for the 1,479,542,654 newly arrived foreign-born persons in the United States. Of the 11,500 estimated TB incident cases, 41.6% (4,783) occurred among immigrants and refugees, 36.6% (4,211) among students/exchange visitors and temporary workers, 13.8% (1,589) among tourists and business travelers, and 7.3% (834) among Canadian and Mexican nonimmigrant visitors without an I-94 form (e.g., arrival-departure record). The top 3 newly arrived foreign-born populations with the largest estimated TB incident cases per 100,000 admissions were immigrants and refugees from high-incidence countries (e.g., 2008 WHO-estimated TB incidence rate of ≥100 cases/100,000 population/year; 235.8 cases/100,000 admissions, 95% confidence interval [CI], 228.3 to 243.3), students/exchange visitors and temporary workers from high-incidence countries (60.9 cases/100,000 admissions, 95% CI, 58.5 to 63.3), and immigrants and refugees from medium-incidence countries (e.g., 2008 WHO-estimated TB incidence rate of 15-99 cases/100,000 population/year; 55.2 cases/100,000 admissions, 95% CI, 51.6 to 58.8). Newly arrived nonimmigrant visitors contribute substantially to the burden of foreign

  10. Identification of time-varying structural dynamic systems - An artificial intelligence approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glass, B. J.; Hanagud, S.

    1992-01-01

    An application of the artificial intelligence-derived methodologies of heuristic search and object-oriented programming to the problem of identifying the form of the model and the associated parameters of a time-varying structural dynamic system is presented in this paper. Possible model variations due to changes in boundary conditions or configurations of a structure are organized into a taxonomy of models, and a variant of best-first search is used to identify the model whose simulated response best matches that of the current physical structure. Simulated model responses are verified experimentally. An output-error approach is used in a discontinuous model space, and an equation-error approach is used in the parameter space. The advantages of the AI methods used, compared with conventional programming techniques for implementing knowledge structuring and inheritance, are discussed. Convergence conditions and example problems have been discussed. In the example problem, both the time-varying model and its new parameters have been identified when changes occur.

  11. Monopoly models with time-varying demand function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalli, Fausto; Naimzada, Ahmad

    2018-05-01

    We study a family of monopoly models for markets characterized by time-varying demand functions, in which a boundedly rational agent chooses output levels on the basis of a gradient adjustment mechanism. After presenting the model for a generic framework, we analytically study the case of cyclically alternating demand functions. We show that both the perturbation size and the agent's reactivity to profitability variation signals can have counterintuitive roles on the resulting period-2 cycles and on their stability. In particular, increasing the perturbation size can have both a destabilizing and a stabilizing effect on the resulting dynamics. Moreover, in contrast with the case of time-constant demand functions, the agent's reactivity is not just destabilizing, but can improve stability, too. This means that a less cautious behavior can provide better performance, both with respect to stability and to achieved profits. We show that, even if the decision mechanism is very simple and is not able to always provide the optimal production decisions, achieved profits are very close to those optimal. Finally, we show that in agreement with the existing empirical literature, the price series obtained simulating the proposed model exhibit a significant deviation from normality and large volatility, in particular when underlying deterministic dynamics become unstable and complex.

  12. 14 CFR 93.29 - International Arrival Authorizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false International Arrival Authorizations. 93.29... at Chicago O'Hare International Airport § 93.29 International Arrival Authorizations. (a) Except as... marketing arrangement unless the flight was predominately marketed, by contract, under the control of...

  13. Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathiraja, Sahani; Anghileri, Daniela; Burlando, Paolo; Sharma, Ashish; Marshall, Lucy; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2018-05-01

    Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2) in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors) contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

  14. Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Pathiraja

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2 in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

  15. Response-only modal identification using random decrement algorithm with time-varying threshold level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Chang Sheng; Tseng, Tse Chuan

    2014-01-01

    Modal Identification from response data only is studied for structural systems under nonstationary ambient vibration. The topic of this paper is the estimation of modal parameters from nonstationary ambient vibration data by applying the random decrement algorithm with time-varying threshold level. In the conventional random decrement algorithm, the threshold level for evaluating random dec signatures is defined as the standard deviation value of response data of the reference channel. The distortion of random dec signatures may be, however, induced by the error involved in noise from the original response data in practice. To improve the accuracy of identification, a modification of the sampling procedure in random decrement algorithm is proposed for modal-parameter identification from the nonstationary ambient response data. The time-varying threshold level is presented for the acquisition of available sample time history to perform averaging analysis, and defined as the temporal root-mean-square function of structural response, which can appropriately describe a wide variety of nonstationary behaviors in reality, such as the time-varying amplitude (variance) of a nonstationary process in a seismic record. Numerical simulations confirm the validity and robustness of the proposed modal-identification method from nonstationary ambient response data under noisy conditions.

  16. Application of weighted early-arrival waveform inversion to shallow land data

    KAUST Repository

    Yu, Han

    2014-03-01

    Seismic imaging of deep land targets is usually difficult since the near-surface velocities are not accurately estimated. Recent studies have shown that inverting traces weighted by the energy of the early-arrivals can improve the accuracy of estimating shallow velocities. In this work, it is explained by showing that the associated misfit gradient function tends to be sensitive to the kinetics of wave propagation and insensitive to the dynamics. A synthetic example verifies the theoretical predictions and shows that the effects of noise and unpredicted amplitude variations in the inversion are reduced using this weighted early arrival waveform inversion (WEWI). We also apply this method to a 2D land data set for estimating the near-surface velocity distribution. The reverse time migration images suggest that, compared to the tomogram inverted directly from the early arrival waveforms, the WEWI tomogram provides a more convincing velocity model and more focused reflections in the deeper part of the image. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

  17. The time-varying association between perceived stress and hunger within and between days.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huh, Jimi; Shiyko, Mariya; Keller, Stefan; Dunton, Genevieve; Schembre, Susan M

    2015-06-01

    Examine the association between perceived stress and hunger continuously over a week in free-living individuals. Forty five young adults (70% women, 30% overweight/obese) ages 18 to 24 years (Mean = 20.7, SD = 1.5), with BMI between 17.4 and 36.3 kg/m(2) (Mean = 23.6, SD = 4.0) provided between 513 and 577 concurrent ratings of perceived stress and hunger for 7 days via hourly, text messaging assessments and real-time eating records. Time-varying effect modeling was used to explore whether the within-day fluctuations in stress are related to perceived hunger assessed on a momentary basis. A generally positive stress-hunger relationship was confirmed, but we found that the strength of the relationship was not linear. Rather, the magnitude of the association between perceived stress and hunger changed throughout the day such that only during specific time intervals were stress and hunger significantly related. Specifically, the strength of the positive association peaked during late afternoon hours on weekdays (β = 0.31, p hunger associations that peak in the afternoon or evening hours. While we are unable to infer causality from these analyses, our findings provide empirical evidence for a potentially high-risk time of day for stress-induced eating. Replication of these findings in larger, more diverse samples will aid with the design and implementation of real-time intervention studies aimed at reducing stress-eating. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Robust pre-specified time synchronization of chaotic systems by employing time-varying switching surfaces in the sliding mode control scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanzadeh, Alireza; Pourgholi, Mahdi

    2016-08-01

    In the conventional chaos synchronization methods, the time at which two chaotic systems are synchronized, is usually unknown and depends on initial conditions. In this work based on Lyapunov stability theory a sliding mode controller with time-varying switching surfaces is proposed to achieve chaos synchronization at a pre-specified time for the first time. The proposed controller is able to synchronize chaotic systems precisely at any time when we want. Moreover, by choosing the time-varying switching surfaces in a way that the reaching phase is eliminated, the synchronization becomes robust to uncertainties and exogenous disturbances. Simulation results are presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed method of stabilizing and synchronizing chaotic systems with complete robustness to uncertainty and disturbances exactly at a pre-specified time.

  19. Robust pre-specified time synchronization of chaotic systems by employing time-varying switching surfaces in the sliding mode control scheme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khanzadeh, Alireza; Pourgholi, Mahdi

    2016-01-01

    In the conventional chaos synchronization methods, the time at which two chaotic systems are synchronized, is usually unknown and depends on initial conditions. In this work based on Lyapunov stability theory a sliding mode controller with time-varying switching surfaces is proposed to achieve chaos synchronization at a pre-specified time for the first time. The proposed controller is able to synchronize chaotic systems precisely at any time when we want. Moreover, by choosing the time-varying switching surfaces in a way that the reaching phase is eliminated, the synchronization becomes robust to uncertainties and exogenous disturbances. Simulation results are presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed method of stabilizing and synchronizing chaotic systems with complete robustness to uncertainty and disturbances exactly at a pre-specified time. (paper)

  20. Forecast Accuracy and Economic Gains from Bayesian Model Averaging using Time Varying Weights

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.F. Hoogerheide (Lennart); R.H. Kleijn (Richard); H.K. van Dijk (Herman); M.J.C.M. Verbeek (Marno)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractSeveral Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using financial and macroeconomic time