WorldWideScience

Sample records for time trend study

  1. Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

    2017-01-01

    We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; pZika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; ppandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.

  2. Instructional Time Trends. Education Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, Julie Rowland

    2015-01-01

    For more than 30 years, Education Commission of the States has tracked instructional time and frequently receives requests for information about policies and trends. In this Education Trends report, Education Commission of the States addresses some of the more frequent questions, including the impact of instructional time on achievement, variation…

  3. Impact of 2008 global economic crisis on suicide: time trend study in 54 countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Shu-Sen; Stuckler, David; Yip, Paul; Gunnell, David

    2013-09-17

    To investigate the impact of the 2008 global economic crisis on international trends in suicide and to identify sex/age groups and countries most affected. Time trend analysis comparing the actual number of suicides in 2009 with the number that would be expected based on trends before the crisis (2000-07). Suicide data from 54 countries; for 53 data were available in the World Health Organization mortality database and for one (the United States) data came the CDC online database. People aged 15 or above. Suicide rate and number of excess suicides in 2009. There were an estimated 4884 (95% confidence interval 3907 to 5860) excess suicides in 2009 compared with the number expected based on previous trends (2000-07). The increases in suicide mainly occurred in men in the 27 European and 18 American countries; the suicide rates were 4.2% (3.4% to 5.1%) and 6.4% (5.4% to 7.5%) higher, respectively, in 2009 than expected if earlier trends had continued. For women, there was no change in European countries and the increase in the Americas was smaller than in men (2.3%). Rises in European men were highest in those aged 15-24 (11.7%), while in American countries men aged 45-64 showed the largest increase (5.2%). Rises in national suicide rates in men seemed to be associated with the magnitude of increases in unemployment, particularly in countries with low levels of unemployment before the crisis (Spearman's rs=0.48). After the 2008 economic crisis, rates of suicide increased in the European and American countries studied, particularly in men and in countries with higher levels of job loss.

  4. Time Trends in the Incidence of Parkinson’s Disease: a 30-year Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savica, Rodolfo; Grossardt, Brandon R.; Bower, James H.; Ahlskog, J. Eric; Rocca, Walter A.

    2016-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Changes over time in the incidence of parkinsonism and Parkinson’s disease (PD) remain uncertain. OBJECTIVE To investigate secular trends (period effects) and birth cohort trends in the incidence of parkinsonism and PD over 30 years in a geographically defined American population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We used the medical records-linkage system of the Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP) to identify incidence cases of PD and other types of parkinsonism in Olmsted County, MN, from 1976 to 2005. All cases were classified by a movement disorder specialist using defined criteria through the review of the complete medical records within the system. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Incidence rates of parkinsonism and PD over 30 years. We tested for secular trends (period effects) using negative binomial regression models and for birth cohort effects using age-period-cohort models. RESULTS The overall incidence rates increased significantly over 30 years in men for both parkinsonism (RR 1.17 per decade, 95% CI 1.03-1.33) and PD (RR 1.24 per decade, 95% CI 1.08-1.43). These trends were driven primarily by the older age groups. In particular, for men ≥ 70 years, incidence rates increased for both parkinsonism (RR 1.24 per decade, 95% CI 1.07-1.44) and PD (RR 1.35 per decade, 95% CI 1.10-1.65). The secular trends were not significant for women overall or in age strata. We observed an increased risk for both men and women born in the 1920 cohort (1915-1924). However, this birth cohort effect was significant only for PD and only in men. CONCLUSIONS AND REVELANCE Our study suggests that the incidence of parkinsonism and PD may have increased in recent decades particularly in men 70 years old and older. These trends may be related to the dramatic changes in smoking behavior that took place in the second half of the 20th century. However, the trends could be spurious, and need to be confirmed in other populations. PMID:27323276

  5. Twenty four year time trends in fats and cholesterol intake by adolescents. Warsaw Adolescents Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charzewska Jadwiga

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine time trends (1982–2006 in total fat intake and changes in fatty acid structure intake in adolescents from Warsaw in view of increasing prevalence of obesity. Data come from four successive surveys randomly selected samples of adolescents (aged 11–15 years old, from Warsaw region. In total 9747 pupils have been examined, with response rate varying from 55% to 87% depending on year. Surveys were done always in the spring season of the year. Food intake was assessed by using 24 hours recall method of consumption by the pupils all products, including enriched, dishes and beverages as well as diet supplements, in the last 24 hours preceding the examination. The content of energy and nutrients was calculated by means of own computer softwares (DIET 2 and 4, taking into account successive revisions of the tables of food composition and nutritional values, as well as current Polish DRI. A significant decreasing trend was found in intake of total fat, of saturated fatty acids (SFA and cholesterol. The percentage of energy from total fat, also decreased both in boys (to 35,1% and girls (to 33,7%, what failed to reach the desired level below 30% of energy from fat which is recommended. Also significant decrease of SFA consumption was not satisfactory enough to approach the values <10% of energy recommended as was from 13% to 15%. Decreasing trends in fat intake was not in accordance with the trend in obesity prevalence in the adolescents as average BMI is going up. To stabilize the health-oriented changes especially in the diets of adolescents, further activity is desired from professionals working with prevention of adolescents obesity.

  6. Trends in Time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andries van den Broek; Koen Breedveld; Jos de Haan; Joep de Hart; Frank Huysmans

    2004-01-01

    How do the Dutch spend their time? How much time for example do they devote to remunerated work, care, reading or voluntary work? And: how is time structured in Dutch society? To what extent is Sunday still a special day? The Social and Cultural Planning Office has been participating in a

  7. Preterm birth time trends in Europe: A study of 19 countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeitlin, J.; Szamotulska, K.; Drewniak, N.; Mohangoo, A.D.; Chalmers, J.; Sakkeus, L.; Irgens, L.; Gatt, M.; Gissler, M.; Blondel, B.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To investigate time trends in preterm birth in Europe by multiplicity, gestational age, and onset of delivery. Design Analysis of aggregate data from routine sources. Setting Nineteen European countries. Population Live births in 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008. Methods Annual risk ratios of

  8. Springtime Peaks and Christmas Troughs: A National Longitudinal Population-Based Study into Suicide Incidence Time Trends in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofstra, Emma; Elfeddali, Iman; Bakker, Marjan; de Jong, Jacobus J; van Nieuwenhuizen, Chijs; van der Feltz-Cornelis, Christina M

    2018-01-01

    Time trends are one of the most studied phenomena in suicide research; however, evidence for time trends in the Dutch population remains understudied. Insight into time trends can contribute to the development of effective suicide prevention strategies. Time trends in national daily and monthly data of 33,224 suicide events that occurred in the Netherlands from 1995 to 2015 were examined, as well as the influence of age, gender, and province, in a longitudinal population-based design with Poisson regression analyses and Bayesian change point analyses. Suicide incidence among Dutch residents increased from 2007 until 2015 by 38%. Suicide rates peak in spring, up to 8% higher than in summer ( p  trends had differential effects in the Dutch provinces in terms of suicide incidence. Evidence was found for time trends in suicide incidence in the Netherlands. It is recommended to plan (mental) health care services to be available especially at high-risk moments, at spring time, and in the beginning of January. Further research is needed to explore the protective effect of Christmas in suicide incidence.

  9. Time trends in organ donation after neurologic determination of death: a cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Andreas H.; Baht, Ryan; Doig, Christopher J.

    2017-01-01

    Background: The cause of brain injury may influence the number of organs that can be procured and transplanted with donation following neurologic determination of death. We investigated whether the distribution of causes responsible for neurologic death has changed over time and, if so, whether this has had an impact on organ quality, transplantation rates and recipient outcomes. Methods: We performed a cohort study involving consecutive brain-dead organ donors in southern Alberta between 2003 and 2014. For each donor, we determined last available measures of organ injury and number of organs transplanted, and compared these variables for various causes of neurologic death. We compared trends to national Canadian data for 2000-2013 (2000-2011 for Quebec). Results: There were 226 brain-dead organ donors over the study period, of whom 100 (44.2%) had anoxic brain injury, 63 (27.9%) had stroke, and 51 (22.6%) had traumatic brain injury. The relative proportion of donors with traumatic brain injury decreased over time (> 30% in 2003-2005 v. 6%-23% in 2012-2014) (p = 0.004), whereas that with anoxic brain injury increased (14%-37% v. 46%-80%, respectively) (p organs transplanted per donor was 3.6 with anoxic brain injury versus 4.5 with traumatic brain injury or stroke (p = 0.002). Interpretation: Anoxic brain injury has become a leading cause of organ donation after neurologic determination of death in Canada. Organs from donors with anoxic brain injury have a greater degree of injury, and fewer are transplanted. These findings have implications for availability of organs for transplantation in patients with end-stage organ failure. PMID:28401114

  10. Time trends in organ donation after neurologic determination of death: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Andreas H; Baht, Ryan; Doig, Christopher J

    2017-01-01

    The cause of brain injury may influence the number of organs that can be procured and transplanted with donation following neurologic determination of death. We investigated whether the distribution of causes responsible for neurologic death has changed over time and, if so, whether this has had an impact on organ quality, transplantation rates and recipient outcomes. We performed a cohort study involving consecutive brain-dead organ donors in southern Alberta between 2003 and 2014. For each donor, we determined last available measures of organ injury and number of organs transplanted, and compared these variables for various causes of neurologic death. We compared trends to national Canadian data for 2000-2013 (2000-2011 for Quebec). There were 226 brain-dead organ donors over the study period, of whom 100 (44.2%) had anoxic brain injury, 63 (27.9%) had stroke, and 51 (22.6%) had traumatic brain injury. The relative proportion of donors with traumatic brain injury decreased over time (> 30% in 2003-2005 v. 6%-23% in 2012-2014) ( p = 0.004), whereas that with anoxic brain injury increased (14%-37% v. 46%-80%, respectively) ( p organs transplanted per donor was 3.6 with anoxic brain injury versus 4.5 with traumatic brain injury or stroke ( p = 0.002). Anoxic brain injury has become a leading cause of organ donation after neurologic determination of death in Canada. Organs from donors with anoxic brain injury have a greater degree of injury, and fewer are transplanted. These findings have implications for availability of organs for transplantation in patients with end-stage organ failure.

  11. Springtime Peaks and Christmas Troughs: A National Longitudinal Population-Based Study into Suicide Incidence Time Trends in the Netherlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma Hofstra

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundTime trends are one of the most studied phenomena in suicide research; however, evidence for time trends in the Dutch population remains understudied. Insight into time trends can contribute to the development of effective suicide prevention strategies.MethodsTime trends in national daily and monthly data of 33,224 suicide events that occurred in the Netherlands from 1995 to 2015 were examined, as well as the influence of age, gender, and province, in a longitudinal population-based design with Poisson regression analyses and Bayesian change point analyses.ResultsSuicide incidence among Dutch residents increased from 2007 until 2015 by 38%. Suicide rates peak in spring, up to 8% higher than in summer (p < 0.001. Suicide incidence was 42% lower at Christmas, compared to the December-average (IRR = 0.580, p < 0.001. After Christmas, a substantial increase occurred on January 1, which remained high during the first weeks of the new year. Suicide occurred more than twice as often in men than in women. For both genders, the results indicated a spring time peak in suicide incidence and a trough at Christmas. Suicide rates were highest in the elderly (age group, 80+, and no evidence was found of a differential effect by season in the age groups with regard to suicide incidence. No interaction effect was found with regard to province of residence for both season and Christmas, indicating that no evidence was found that these time trends had differential effects in the Dutch provinces in terms of suicide incidence.ConclusionEvidence was found for time trends in suicide incidence in the Netherlands. It is recommended to plan (mental health care services to be available especially at high-risk moments, at spring time, and in the beginning of January. Further research is needed to explore the protective effect of Christmas in suicide incidence.

  12. Time trends of cancer mortality among elderly in Italy, 1970–2008: an observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bidoli Ettore

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aging of the Italian population will unavoidably lead to a growing number of persons diagnosed and living with cancer. A comprehensive description of the burden of cancer mortality among Italian elderly (65-84 years of age in the last four decades has not been carried out yet. Cancer mortality rates were used to describe time trends between 1970-2008. Methods Mortality counts, provided by the Italian National Institute of Statistics, were grouped according to data availability: in quinquennia from 1970-74 through 1995-99, and in 2000-03 and 2006-08 groups. Age-standardized rates (world population were computed by calendar periods while annual percent changes (APCs were computed for elderly and middle aged (35-64 years people for the period 1995-2008. Results The number of cancer deaths in elderly nearly doubled between 1970-74 (31,400 deaths/year in men, and 24,000 in women and 2006-08 (63,000 deaths/year in men, and 42,000 in women. Overall cancer mortality rates peaked during the quinquennia 1985-89 and 1990-94 (about 1,500/100,000 in men and 680 in women and declined thereafter. Throughout 1995-2008 cancer mortality rates decreased by -1.6%/year in men and -0.9%/year in women. These decreases were mainly driven by cancers of the stomach, bladder, prostate, and lung (APC = -3.3%, -2.7%, -2.5%, -2.2%, respectively in men, and by cancers of the stomach, bladder, and breast (APC = -3.5%, -1.9%, -1.1%, respectively in women. Conversely, increases in mortality rates between 1995 and 2008 were recorded for lung cancer (APC = +0.6% in women, cutaneous melanoma (APC = +1.7% in men, and pancreatic cancer (APC = +0.6% in men and +0.9% in women. Conclusions Overall favorable trends in cancer mortality were observed among Italian elderly between 1995 and 2008. Early diagnosis, improved efficacy of anti-cancer treatments and management of comorbidities are the most likely explanations of these positive

  13. Incidence and time trends of Herpes zoster in rheumatoid arthritis: a population-based cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veetil, Bharath Manu Akkara; Myasoedova, Elena; Matteson, Eric L.; Gabriel, Sherine E.; Green, Abigail B.; Crowson, Cynthia S.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To determine the incidence, time trends, risk factors and severity of herpes zoster (HZ) in a population-based incidence cohort of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) compared to a group of individuals without RA from the same population. Methods All residents of Olmsted County, MN who first fulfilled 1987 American College of Rheumatology criteria for RA between 1/1/1980 and 12/31/2007 and a cohort of similar residents without RA were assembled and followed by retrospective chart review until death, migration, or 12/31/2008. Results There was no difference in the presence of HZ prior to RA incidence/index date between the cohorts (p=0.85). During follow-up 84 patients with RA (rate: 12.1 per 1000 person-years) and 44 subjects without RA (rate: 5.4 per 1000 person-years) developed HZ. Patients with RA were more likely to develop HZ than those without RA (hazard ratio: 2.4; 95% confidence interval: 1.7, 3.5). Patients diagnosed with RA in 1995–2007 had a higher likelihood of developing HZ than those diagnosed in 1980–1994. Erosive disease, previous joint surgery, use of hydroxychloroquine and corticosteroids were significantly associated with the development of HZ in RA, while the use of methotrexate or biologic agents was not. Complications of HZ occurred at a similar rate in both cohorts. Conclusion The incidence of HZ is increased in RA and has risen in recent years. The increasing incidence of HZ in more recent years is also noted in the general population. RA disease severity is associated with development of HZ. PMID:23281295

  14. Selection bias due to parity-conditioning in studies of time trends in fertility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sallmén, Markku; Bonde, Jens Peter; Lindbohm, Marja-Liisa

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Studies of couple fertility over time have often examined study populations with broad age ranges at a cross-section of time. An increase in fertility has been observed in studies that followed episodes of fertility events either prospectively among nulliparous women or retrospectively....... METHODS: A study with prospective follow-up was taken as the model to assess the validity of fertility studies. We demonstrate the potential for selection bias using causal graphs and nationwide birth statistics and other demographic data. We tested the existence of parity-conditioning bias in data......-conditioning varies by sampling frame. A prospective multidecade study with representative sampling of birth cohorts and follow-up from menarche to menopause would bypass the described bias....

  15. Doctors' enjoyment of their work and satisfaction with time available for leisure: UK time trend questionnaire-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surman, Geraldine; Lambert, Trevor W; Goldacre, Michael

    2016-04-01

    Doctors' job satisfaction is important to the health service to ensure commitment, effective training, service provision and retention. Job satisfaction matters to doctors for their personal happiness, fulfilment, service to patients and duty to employers. Monitoring job satisfaction trends informs workforce planning. We surveyed UK-trained doctors up to 5 years after graduation for six graduation year cohorts: 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2012. Doctors scored their job enjoyment (Enjoyment) and satisfaction with time outside work (Leisure) on a scale from 1 (lowest enjoyment/satisfaction) to 10 (highest). Overall, 47% had a high level of Enjoyment (scores 8-10) 1 year after graduation and 56% after 5 years. For Leisure, the corresponding figures were 19% and 37% at 1 and 5 years, respectively. For Leisure at 1 year, high scores were given by about 10% in the 1990s, rising to about 25% in the mid-2000s. Low scores (1-3) for Enjoyment were given by 15% of qualifiers of 1996, falling to 5% by 2008; corresponding figures for Leisure were 42% and 19%. At 5 years, the corresponding figures were 6% and 4%, and 23% and 17%. Enjoyment and Leisure were scored higher by general practitioners than doctors in other specialties. Both measures varied little by sex, ethnicity or medical school attended. Scores for Enjoyment were generally high; those for Leisure were lower. Policy initiatives should address why this aspect of satisfaction is low, particularly in the first year after graduation but also among hospital doctors 5 years after graduation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  16. Trend Analysis of Soil Salinity in Different Land Cover Types Using Landsat Time Series Data (case Study Bakhtegan Salt Lake)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghadosi, M. M.; Hasanlou, M.

    2017-09-01

    Soil salinity is one of the main causes of desertification and land degradation which has negative impacts on soil fertility and crop productivity. Monitoring salt affected areas and assessing land cover changes, which caused by salinization, can be an effective approach to rehabilitate saline soils and prevent further salinization of agricultural fields. Using potential of satellite imagery taken over time along with remote sensing techniques, makes it possible to determine salinity changes at regional scales. This study deals with monitoring salinity changes and trend of the expansion in different land cover types of Bakhtegan Salt Lake district during the last two decades using multi-temporal Landsat images. For this purpose, per-pixel trend analysis of soil salinity during years 2000 to 2016 was performed and slope index maps of the best salinity indicators were generated for each pixel in the scene. The results of this study revealed that vegetation indices (GDVI and EVI) and also salinity indices (SI-1 and SI-3) have great potential to assess soil salinity trends in vegetation and bare soil lands respectively due to more sensitivity to salt features over years of study. In addition, images of May had the best performance to highlight changes in pixels among different months of the year. A comparative analysis of different slope index maps shows that more than 76% of vegetated areas have experienced negative trends during 17 years, of which about 34% are moderately and highly saline. This percent is increased to 92% for bare soil lands and 29% of salt affected soils had severe salinization. It can be concluded that the areas, which are close to the lake, are more affected by salinity and salts from the lake were brought into the soil which will lead to loss of soil productivity ultimately.

  17. Time trends in lifetime incidence rates of first-time diagnosed anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa across 16 years in a Danish nationwide psychiatric registry study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Jensen, Christina Mohr

    2015-11-01

    To study recent time trends in the incidence of diagnosed anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN) based on nationwide psychiatric register data. The Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry was used to identify the incidence of diagnosed cases with AN and BN at the ages of 4-65 years from 1995 to 2010. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated and were adjusted for time trends in the total number of people diagnosed in psychiatry. Time trends were analyzed using JoinPoint regression analysis. A total of N = 5,902 persons had a first-time incidence of AN, and a total of N = 5,113 had first-time incidence of BN. Incidence rates increased for AN from 6.4 to 12.6 per 100,000 person-years, and for BN from 6.3 to 7.2 per 100,000 person-years. In 2010, the male-to-female ratio was 1:8 for AN, and 1:20 for BN. There was an earlier onset for AN than for BN, and age at incidence decreased during the observation period for AN but not for BN. A sizeable part of the increasing incidence rates for AN and in particular, the younger AN age groups, could be attributed to an increase in the total number of N = 249,607 persons with first-time diagnoses in psychiatry. Incidence rates had increased slightly for AN, but were stable for BN across 16 years in this nationwide study and to a large extent were reflective of a general increase in diagnosed mental disorders. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Variation between studies in reported relative risks associated with hypertension: time trends and other explanatory variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marang-van de Mheen, P. J.; Gunning-Schepers, L. J.

    1998-01-01

    This study examined the variation in reported relative risks of coronary heart disease and stroke associated with hypertension and determined reasons for the interstudy variation. Studies published since 1970 were examined that reported the absolute number of events and person-years for men by age

  19. Coronary heart disease mortality among young adults in Scotland in relation to social inequalities:time trend study

    OpenAIRE

    O'Flaherty, Martin; Bishop, Jennifer; Redpath, Adam; McLaughlin, Terry; Murphy, David; Chalmers, James; Capewell, Simon

    2009-01-01

    Objective To examine recent trends and social inequalities in age specific coronary heart disease mortality.Design Time trend analysis using joinpoint regression.Setting Scotland, 1986-2006.Participants Men and women aged 35 years and over.Main outcome measures Age adjusted and age, sex, and deprivation specific coronary heart disease mortality.Results Persistent sixfold social differentials in coronary heart disease mortality were seen between the most deprived and the most affluent groups a...

  20. Time trends in the incidence of eating disorders : A primary care study in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Son, Gabrielle E.; van Hoeken, Daphne; Bartelds, Aad I. M.; van Furth, Eric F.; Hoek, Hans W.

    2006-01-01

    Objective: This Dutch epidemiological study used primary care-based data to examine changes in the incidence of eating disorders in the 1990s compared to the 1980s. Method: A nationwide network of general practitioners, serving a representative sample of the total Dutch population, recorded newly

  1. Google Trends: Ready for real-time suicide prevention or just a Zeta-Jones effect? An exploratory study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fond, Guillaume; Gaman, Alexandru; Brunel, Lore; Haffen, Emmanuel; Llorca, Pierre-Michel

    2015-08-30

    Two studies have shown that increasing the consultation of the word "suicide" in the Google search engine was associated with a subsequent increase in the prevalence of suicide attempts. The main goal of this article was to explore the trends generated by a key-word search associated with suicide, depression and bipolarity in an attempt to identify general trends (disorders epidemics in the population/"real events" vs newsworthy advertisement/"media event"). Based on previous studies, the frequency of the search words "how to suicide" and "commit suicide" were analyzed for suicide, as well as "depression" (for depressive disorders) and "bipolar disorder". Together, these analyses suggest that the search for the words "how to suicide" or "commit suicide" on the Google search engine may be a good indicator for suicide prevention policies. However, the tool is not developed enough to date to be used as a real time dynamic indicator of suicide epidemics. The frequency of the search for the word "suicide" was associated with those for "depression" but not for "bipolar disorder", but searches for psychiatric conditions seem to be influenced by media events more than by real events in the general population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Nongenetic causes of childhood cancers: evidence from international variation, time trends, and risk factor studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunin, Greta R.

    2004-01-01

    Ionizing radiation and a variety of genetic conditions are thought to explain 5-10% of childhood cancers. Infection with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) in parts of Africa and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) increase the risk of Burkitt's lymphoma and Kaposi's sarcoma, respectively. Other risk factors have not been conclusively identified. A review of the data on international variation in incidence, recent changes in incidence, and risk factors suggests that many childhood cancers are likely to have nongenetic causes. The pattern of international variation and associations with surrogates of infection suggest an infectious etiology for acute lymphoblastic leukemia, although no agent has been identified. The biologic plausibility is strong that maternal consumption of food containing DNA topoisomerase II inhibitors may increase the risk of acute myeloid leukemia, although the data are limited now. For brain tumors, cured meats, polyomaviruses, and farm exposures may have etiologic roles. Changes in the incidence and characteristics of children with hepatoblastoma as well as risk factor studies suggest a role for an exposure of very low birth weight babies. High birth weight, tea or coffee consumption, and certain paternal occupations have shown some consistency in their association with Wilms' tumor. For most of the other cancers, very few epidemiologic studies have been conducted, so it is not surprising that nongenetic risk factors have not been detected. The most important difference between the cancers for which there are good etiologic clues and those for which there are not may be the number of relevant studies

  3. Time trends in surgery for lung cancer in France from 2005 to 2012: a nationwide study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgant, Marie-Catherine; Pagès, Pierre-Benoit; Orsini, Bastien; Falcoz, Pierre-Emmanuel; Thomas, Pascal-Alexandre; Barthes, Françoise Le Pimpec; Dahan, Marcel; Bernard, Alain

    2015-10-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the evolution of survival in patients treated surgically for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) between 2005 and 2012.From January 2005 to December 2012, 34 006 patients underwent pulmonary resection for NSCLC and were included in the French national database Epithor. Patients' characteristics, procedures and survival were analysed. Survival according to the management was evaluated for each 2-year period separately: 2005-2006, 2007-2008, 2009-2010 and 2011-2012.The proportions of early-stage cancers and adenocarcinomas increased significantly over the periods. 3-year overall survival (OS) increased significantly from 80.5% for the first period to 81.4% for the last period. For the periods 2005-2006 and 2007-2008, 3-year OS was lower after segmentectomy than after lobectomy (77 and 73% versus 82 and 83%, respectively). For the periods 2009-2010 and 2011-2012, 3-year OS in the two sub-groups was similar. OS after bi-lobectomy or pneumonectomy was lower than after lobectomy for all periods analysed. Systematic nodal dissection increased OS for all periods. Chemotherapy but not radiotherapy improved OS in the first 12 postoperative months for all periods.Changes in histological type and stage linked to advances in surgical and medical practices since 2005 led to an increase in OS in patients with surgical-stage NSCLC. Copyright ©ERS 2015.

  4. Septic Arthritis in Emergency Departments in the US: A National Study of Health Care Utilization and Time Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Jasvinder A; Yu, Shaohua

    2018-02-01

    To assess the health care utilization and emergency department (ED) charges for septic arthritis. We performed a retrospective cohort study of ED visits with septic arthritis as the primary diagnosis using the US Nationwide Emergency Department Sample data from 2009-2012. We examined ED charges, hospitalization, and associated time trends. Multivariable models were adjusted for demographics (age, sex, insurance status, residence, and household income), comorbidity, and hospital characteristics to assess factors associated with ED charges and hospitalization. Septic arthritis was responsible for 16,382 ED visits in 2012 in the US, which constituted 0.01% of all ED visits. The number of ED visits was stable from 2009-2012. Total ED charges were $34.6, $30.6, and $36.9 million in 2009, 2010, and 2012, respectively, and mean ED charges were $2,149, $1,866, and $2,257, respectively. The majority of the patients with an ED visit for septic arthritis were hospitalized: 82%, 83%, and 84% in 2009, 2010, and 2012, respectively. Metropolitan residence and western US location were associated with higher ED charges, and the highest income quartile, renal failure, or osteoarthritis were associated with lower ED charges. Female sex, metropolitan residence, metropolitan teaching hospital status, and medical comorbidity (diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, coronary heart disease, gout, osteoarthritis, renal failure, and heart failure) were associated with a higher risk of hospitalization. Comorbidities were associated with a higher risk of hospitalization after an ED visit for septic arthritis, but not higher ED charges. No time trends in ED visit incidence, ED charges, or hospitalization rate for septic arthritis from 2009-2012 were noted. © 2017, American College of Rheumatology.

  5. Road Traffic Injury Trends in the City of Valledupar, Colombia. A Time Series Study from 2008 to 2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Martín Rodríguez

    Full Text Available To analyze the behavior temporal of road-traffic injuries (RTI in Valledupar, Colombia from January 2008 to December 2012.An observational study was conducted based on records from the Colombian National Legal Medicine and Forensic Sciences Institute regional office in Valledupar. Different variables were analyzed, such as the injured person's sex, age, education level, and type of road user; the timeframe, place and circumstances of crashes and the vehicles associated with the occurrence. Furthermore, a time series analysis was conducted using an auto-regressive integrated moving average.There were 105 events per month on an average, 64.9% of RTI involved men; 82.3% of the persons injured were from 18 to 59 years of age; the average age was 35.4 years of age; the road users most involved in RTI were motorcyclists (69%, followed by pedestrians (12%. 70% had up to upper-secondary education. Sunday was the day with the most RTI occurrences; 93% of the RTI occurred in the urban area. The time series showed a seasonal pattern and a significant trend effect. The modeling process verified the existence of both memory and extrinsic variables related.An RTI occurrence pattern was identified, which showed an upward trend during the period analyzed. Motorcyclists were the main road users involved in RTI, which suggests the need to design and implement specific measures for that type of road user, from regulations for graduated licensing for young drivers to monitoring road user behavior for the promotion of road safety.

  6. Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Paap, Richard

    1997-01-01

    textabstractMany macroeconomic time series are characterised by long periods of positive growth, expansion periods, and short periods of negative growth, recessions. A popular model to describe this phenomenon is the Markov trend, which is a stochastic segmented trend where the slope depends on the value of an unobserved two-state first-order Markov process. The two slopes of the Markov trend describe the growth rates in the two phases of the business cycle. This thesis deals with a Bayesian ...

  7. Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Paap (Richard)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractMany macroeconomic time series are characterised by long periods of positive growth, expansion periods, and short periods of negative growth, recessions. A popular model to describe this phenomenon is the Markov trend, which is a stochastic segmented trend where the slope depends on the

  8. Bullying and victimization among 8-year-old children: a 16-year population-based time-trend study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilola, Anna-Marja; Sourander, Andre

    2013-06-01

    Bullying has been recognized as a major social and health problem among children. There are only few studies about changes in the prevalence of bullying behaviour, especially among younger children. To examine changes in the prevalence of bullying behaviour at three time-points, 1989, 1999 and 2005, among 8-year-old children living in south-western Finland. Three representative cross-sectional samples of 8-year-old children from south-western Finland were compared. All children born in 1981 (n = 1038), 1991 (n = 1035) and 1997 (n = 1030) and living in selected school districts were included in the study samples. The sampling, procedure and methods were similar at all three time-points. The participation rate varied from 84% to 96%. Children, parents and teachers filled in questionnaires asking about bullying and victimization. In 2005, statistically significantly fewer boys were victimized than in 1989. Among girls, there was a decreasing trend of victimization but this was statistically significant only in parental reports. More girls were frequent victims in 2005 than in 1989. Among boys, the number of bullies also decreased. However, teachers found more bullies among girls in 2005 than in 1989. There was a slight decrease in bullying behaviour among boys from 1989 to 2005. The main finding among girls was an almost twofold increase in teacher-reported bullies (from 5% to 9%). Bullying and its prevention are major challenges for educational and school health services. Peer relationships and a non-violent school environment are major challenges of children's lives; therefore, continuous monitoring of bullying behaviour is important.

  9. Time Trends in Bullying Behavior in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieno, Alessio; Lenzi, Michela; Gini, Gianluca; Pozzoli, Tiziana; Cavallo, Franco; Santinello, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    Background: Given the severity of outcomes associated with involvement in bullying and the resources spent in an effort to reduce its prevalence, it is important to investigate trends in the bullying's occurrence. The main aim of this study was to identify trends from 2002 to 2010 in prevalence of bullying and victimization among Italian…

  10. Coronary heart disease mortality among young adults in Scotland in relation to social inequalities: time trend study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Flaherty, Martin; Bishop, Jennifer; Redpath, Adam; McLaughlin, Terry; Murphy, David; Chalmers, James; Capewell, Simon

    2009-07-14

    To examine recent trends and social inequalities in age specific coronary heart disease mortality. Time trend analysis using joinpoint regression. Scotland, 1986-2006. Men and women aged 35 years and over. Age adjusted and age, sex, and deprivation specific coronary heart disease mortality. Persistent sixfold social differentials in coronary heart disease mortality were seen between the most deprived and the most affluent groups aged 35-44 years. These differentials diminished with increasing age but equalised only above 85 years. Between 1986 and 2006, overall, age adjusted coronary heart disease mortality decreased by 61% in men and by 56% in women. Among middle aged and older adults, mortality continued to decrease fairly steadily throughout the period. However, coronary heart disease mortality levelled from 1994 onwards among young men and women aged 35-44 years. Rates in men and women aged 45-54 showed similar flattening from about 2003. Rates in women aged 55-64 may also now be flattening. The flattening of coronary heart disease mortality in younger men and women was confined to the two most deprived fifths. Premature death from coronary heart disease remains a major contributor to social inequalities. Furthermore, the flattening of the decline in mortality for coronary heart disease among younger adults may represent an early warning sign. The observed trends were confined to the most deprived groups. Marked deterioration in medical management of coronary heart disease seems implausible. Unfavourable trends in the major risk factors for coronary heart disease (smoking and poor diet) thus provide the most likely explanation for these inequalities.

  11. Trend Filtering Techniques for Time Series Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    López Arias, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Time series can be found almost everywhere in our lives and because of this being capable of analysing them is an important task. Most of the time series we can think of are quite noisy, being this one of the main problems to extract information from them. In this work we use Trend Filtering techniques to try to remove this noise from a series and understand the underlying trend of the series, that gives us information about the behaviour of the series aside from the particular...

  12. Time trends in human fecundability in Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Rylander, Lars; Carstensen, Lisbeth

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Trends in biologic fertility are elusive. Possible negative trends in male reproductive health are still debated, and their effect on human fertility might be negligible. Time-to-pregnancy (TTP) is a functional measure of couple fecundability. METHODS: We analyzed data on TTP among 832......,000 primiparous women 20 years of age and older in the nationwide Swedish Medical Birth Registry from 1983 through 2002. This age restriction led to an exclusion of 10% of primiparous pregnancies. Subfertility (TTP > or =1 year) was analyzed as a function of maternal age, calendar time at initiation of attempt...... diseases, to changes in sexual behavior induced by socioeconomic conditions, or to broader biologic or educational trends....

  13. Time trend in diagnosing dementia in secondary care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phung, Thien Kieu Thi; Waltoft, Berit Lindum; Kessing, Lars Vedel

    2010-01-01

    To study the trend of diagnosing dementia in the secondary health care sector over time, we conducted a nationwide longitudinal study of the incidence and prevalence of registered dementia diagnoses in the Danish national hospital registers.......To study the trend of diagnosing dementia in the secondary health care sector over time, we conducted a nationwide longitudinal study of the incidence and prevalence of registered dementia diagnoses in the Danish national hospital registers....

  14. Temporal trends in the initiation of glucose-lowering medications after a first-time myocardial infarction - a nationwide study between 1997 and 2006

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Norgaard, Mette Lykke; Andersson, Charlotte; Hansen, Peter Riis

    2011-01-01

    Background Type 2 diabetes is a well-established risk factor for cardiovascular disease and is common among patients with acute myocardial infarction (MI). The extent to which patients with first-time MI develop diabetes requiring glucose-lowering medications (GLM) is largely unknown. The aim...... of the study was to investigate temporal trends in the initiation of GLM among patients discharged after first-time MI. Methods All Danish residents aged = 30 years without prior diabetes hospitalized with first-time MI between 1997 and 2006 were identified by individual-level-linkage of nationwide registers...... initiation within the first year post- MI. A similar trend was observed in the general population suggesting that the increase in GLM among MI patients was primarily the effect of a general increased awareness of diabetes. From a public heath perspective, this study underscores a continuous need...

  15. Quantitative assessment of time trends: influence of time window selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prosek, A.; Mavko, B.

    2004-01-01

    Quantitative assessment of thermalhydraulic system code predictions is today indispensable for code verification and validation. It is also needed for standard nuclear power plant nodalization development and qualification. Initially the Fast Fourier Transform Based Method (FFTBM) was proposed for accuracy quantification. Later a few new methods were proposed like Automated Code Assessment Program (ACAP) and Stochastic Approximation Ratio Based Method (SARBM). Recently, the review of FFTBM applications was done and reference FFTBM database was proposed consisting of most accurate international standard problems, standard problem exercises or organization calculations as judged by FFTBM. The calculations were presented by primary pressure average amplitude and total accuracy for the whole transient duration. The objective of this study was to investigate how the time window selection influences on the results. For the quantitative assessment various BETHSY experiments and Mochovce plant transient were selected and calculations obtained by RELAP5/MOD3.2 and RELAP5/MOD3.2.2 code, respectively. In the accuracy analysis each transient is subdivided into phases that define the time window and time interval. The time window is time duration of phase. The time interval is time window from the start time of first phase to the end time of selected phase. The analysis was performed for moving time window (sequence of narrow time windows) and increasing time interval (sequence of time intervals). The results for moving time window showed that accuracy measures were very time dependent and they efficiently showed the instantaneous discrepancies occurring in the calculated signal. They also give picture how complex is the transient. The average amplitude (AA) was compared with relative error function (the difference between calculated and measured signal divided by measured signal) and SARBM results. The trends for accuracy measures were similar. These results suggest that for

  16. Time trends in incidence rates of diagnosed attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder across 16 years in a nationwide Danish registry study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohr Jensen, Christina; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph

    2015-03-01

    To investigate time trends in incidence rates of first-time diagnosed attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in a nationwide sample aged 4-65 years across 16 years and identify potential contributing factors to these time trends. Incidence rates of first-time diagnosed ADHD based on ICD-10 criteria in Danish psychiatric hospitals per 100,000 person years (PY) were calculated for the total population, the 2 sexes, and 4 age groups using data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry and annual census data. Time trends and the role of contributing factors were analyzed and identified using joinpoint regression procedures by calculating annual percent changes for the time period 1995-2010. A total of 20,281 patients were diagnosed with ADHD and incidence rates increased from 7.3 to 91.2 per 100,000 PY during the study period. Joinpoint analysis suggested that incidence rates for diagnosed ADHD rapidly increased from 1998 to 2002, peaked from 2002 to 2008, and slowed down from 2008 to 2010. Contributing factors to the observed time trends were a general increase in patients seen in psychiatry for any mental disorder and an increased awareness and recognition of ADHD in females, adolescents, and adults. These results provide empirical data needed in the public and professional debate often based on theoretical rather than empirical arguments. Results support the notion of increasing incidence rates of diagnosed ADHD and identify that contributing factors are a general increase in the number of patients assessed in psychiatry and an increased recognition of females, adolescents, and adults with ADHD. © Copyright 2015 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

  17. Socioeconomic disparities in psychological distress in a nationally representative sample of Japanese adolescents: A time trend study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kachi, Yuko; Abe, Aya; Ando, Emiko; Kawada, Tomoyuki

    2017-03-01

    Socioeconomic status as a determinant of mental health problems has received scant attention in Japan, which has long been considered an egalitarian society. This study examined the association between socioeconomic status and psychological distress and its trends over 6 years among Japanese adolescents. We used data from a nationally representative sample of 9491 adolescents aged 12-18 years who participated in three repeated cross-sectional surveys between 2007 and 2013. The K6 scale was used to assess psychological distress. Socioeconomic status indicators included household income, parental education, parental working status and household structure. Psychological distress prevalence decreased significantly from 2007 (10.7%) to 2013 (7.6%). However, the socioeconomic status patterns of psychological distress were consistent through the study period. Adolescents living in both lower (odds ratio = 1.61; 95% confidence interval = [1.27, 2.05]) and higher income households (odds ratio = 1.30; 95% confidence interval = [1.03, 1.62]) were more likely to report psychological distress than their middle-income counterparts. Adolescents with low household income were more likely to feel stress from interpersonal relationships and less likely to have help-seeking behaviors, while those with high household income were more likely to feel stress about school achievement. Psychological distress was also associated with parental poor education and single parenthood. Socioeconomic status disparities in adolescent psychological distress were evident and consistent during the 6-year period. There is a unique U-shaped relationship between household income and psychological distress among adolescents in Japan, unlike those from other countries. However, the underlying mechanisms may differ by income status. Future prevention efforts should consider socioeconomic status as a determinant of adolescent mental health problems.

  18. A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF FORECASTING MODELS FOR TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES DOES COMPLEX MODEL ALWAYS YIELD BETTER FORECAST THAN SIMPLE MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suhartono Suhartono

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Many business and economic time series are non-stationary time series that contain trend and seasonal variations. Seasonality is a periodic and recurrent pattern caused by factors such as weather, holidays, or repeating promotions. A stochastic trend is often accompanied with the seasonal variations and can have a significant impact on various forecasting methods. In this paper, we will investigate and compare some forecasting methods for modeling time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. These methods are Winter's, Decomposition, Time Series Regression, ARIMA and Neural Networks models. In this empirical research, we study on the effectiveness of the forecasting performance, particularly to answer whether a complex method always give a better forecast than a simpler method. We use a real data, that is airline passenger data. The result shows that the more complex model does not always yield a better result than a simpler one. Additionally, we also find the possibility to do further research especially the use of hybrid model by combining some forecasting method to get better forecast, for example combination between decomposition (as data preprocessing and neural network model.

  19. Time trends in pediatric hospitalizations for varicella infection are associated with climatic changes: a 22-year retrospective study in a tertiary Greek referral center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critselis, Elena; Nastos, Panagiotis T; Theodoridou, Kalliopi; Theodoridou, Maria; Tsolia, Maria N; Hadjichristodoulou, Christos; Papaevangelou, Vassiliki

    2012-01-01

    The transmission rate of air-borne infectious diseases may vary secondary to climate conditions. The study assessed time trends in the seasonality of hospitalized varicella cases in a temperate region in relation to climatic parameters prior to the implementation of universal varicella immunization. A retrospective descriptive study was conducted among all pediatric and adolescent varicella patients (n = 2366) hospitalized at the "Aghia Sophia" Children's Hospital during 1982-2003 in Athens, Greece. Date of infection was computed based on hospital admission date. Seasonal and monthly trends in the epidemiology of varicella infection were assessed with time series analysis (ARIMA modeling procedure). The correlation between the frequency of varicella patients and the meteorological parameters was examined by the application of Generalized Linear Models with Gamma distribution. During 1982-2003, the occurrence of hospitalized varicella cases increased during summer (p = 0.025) and decreased during autumn (p = 0.021), and particularly in September (p = 0.003). The frequency of hospitalized varicella cases was inversely associated with air temperature (p<0.001). In contrast, the occurrence of hospitalized varicella cases was positively associated with wind speed (p = 0.009). Pediatric hospitalizations for varicella infection rates have increased during summer and decreased during autumn in the examined temperate region. Time trends in hospitalized varicella cases are associated with climatic variables.

  20. Time-varying trends of global vegetation activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, N.; Feng, X.; Fu, B.

    2016-12-01

    Vegetation plays an important role in regulating the energy change, water cycle and biochemical cycle in terrestrial ecosystems. Monitoring the dynamics of vegetation activity and understanding their driving factors have been an important issue in global change research. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an indicator of vegetation activity, has been widely used in investigating vegetation changes at regional and global scales. Most studies utilized linear regression or piecewise linear regression approaches to obtain an averaged changing rate over a certain time span, with an implicit assumption that the trend didn't change over time during that period. However, no evidence shows that this assumption is right for the non-linear and non-stationary NDVI time series. In this study, we adopted the multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) method to extract the time-varying trends of NDVI from original signals without any a priori assumption of their functional form. Our results show that vegetation trends are spatially and temporally non-uniform during 1982-2013. Most vegetated area exhibited greening trends in the 1980s. Nevertheless, the area with greening trends decreased over time since the early 1990s, and the greening trends have stalled or even reversed in many places. Regions with browning trends were mainly located in southern low latitudes in the 1980s, whose area decreased before the middle 1990s and then increased at an accelerated rate. The greening-to-browning reversals were widespread across all continents except Oceania (43% of the vegetated areas), most of which happened after the middle 1990s. In contrast, the browning-to-greening reversals occurred in smaller area and earlier time. The area with monotonic greening and browning trends accounted for 33% and 5% of the vegetated area, respectively. By performing partial correlation analyses between NDVI and climatic elements (temperature, precipitation and cloud cover

  1. Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...... of endocrine disrupters....

  2. Study on homogenization of synthetic GNSS-retrieved IWV time series and its impact on trend estimates with autoregressive noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klos, Anna; Pottiaux, Eric; Van Malderen, Roeland; Bock, Olivier; Bogusz, Janusz

    2017-04-01

    A synthetic benchmark dataset of Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) was created within the activity of "Data homogenisation" of sub-working group WG3 of COST ES1206 Action. The benchmark dataset was created basing on the analysis of IWV differences retrieved by Global Positioning System (GPS) International GNSS Service (IGS) stations using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecats (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA-Interim). Having analysed a set of 120 series of IWV differences (ERAI-GPS) derived for IGS stations, we delivered parameters of a number of gaps and breaks for every certain station. Moreover, we estimated values of trends, significant seasonalities and character of residuals when deterministic model was removed. We tested five different noise models and found that a combination of white and autoregressive processes of first order describes the stochastic part with a good accuracy. Basing on this analysis, we performed Monte Carlo simulations of 25 years long data with two different types of noise: white as well as combination of white and autoregressive processes. We also added few strictly defined offsets, creating three variants of synthetic dataset: easy, less-complicated and fully-complicated. The 'Easy' dataset included seasonal signals (annual, semi-annual, 3 and 4 months if present for a particular station), offsets and white noise. The 'Less-complicated' dataset included above-mentioned, as well as the combination of white and first order autoregressive processes (AR(1)+WH). The 'Fully-complicated' dataset included, beyond above, a trend and gaps. In this research, we show the impact of manual homogenisation on the estimates of trend and its error. We also cross-compare the results for three above-mentioned datasets, as the synthetized noise type might have a significant influence on manual homogenisation. Therefore, it might mostly affect the values of trend and their uncertainties when inappropriately handled. In a future, the synthetic dataset

  3. Time-trends and circumstances surrounding ankle injuries in men's professional football: an 11-year follow-up of the UEFA Champions League injury study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldén, Markus; Hägglund, Martin; Ekstrand, Jan

    2013-08-01

    Ankle injury is common in football, but the circumstances surrounding them are not well characterised. To investigate the rates, especially time-trends, and circumstances of ankle injuries in male professional football. 27 European clubs with 1743 players were followed prospectively between 2001/2002 and 2011/2012. Time loss injuries and individual-player exposure during training sessions and matches were recorded. Injury rate was defined as the number of injuries/1000 h. A total of 1080 ankle injuries were recorded (13% of all injuries) with lateral ligament ankle sprain being the most common injury subtype (51% of all ankle injuries). The rates of ankle injury and ankle sprain were 1/1000 h and 0.7/1000 h, respectively. The ankle sprain rate declined slightly over time during the 11-year study period (on average 3.1%/season) with a statistically significant seasonal trend (p=0.041). Foul play according to the referee was involved in 40% of the match-related ankle sprains. Syndesmotic sprains and ankle impingement were uncommon causes of time loss (3% each of all ankle injuries). Lateral ligament ankle sprain constituted half of all ankle injuries in male professional football, whereas ankle impingement syndromes were uncommon. The ankle sprain rate decreased slightly over time, but many ankle sprains were associated with foul play. Our data extend the body of literature that provides football policy makers with a foundation to review existing rules and their enforcement.

  4. Time trends in biological fertility in Western Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joffe, Michael; Holmes, Jane; Jensen, Tina Kold

    2013-01-01

    analyses demonstrated that this rise was visible as a male cohort effect for both TTP and contraceptive failure. On the other hand, the female birth cohort effect showed a slight fall in the first half of the study period for both TTP and contraceptive failure. As a period effect, fertility remained...... generally stable, the slight trends in TTP and contraceptive failure being in opposite directions, likely indicating an artifact. The rising trend accords with most previous evidence. The increasing trend in male fertility does not contradict the previously reported semen quality deterioration, the effects......We investigated trends in biological fertility in a comprehensive analysis of 5 major European data sets with data on time to pregnancy (TTP) and proportion of contraceptive failures. In particular, we distinguished a period effect from a birth cohort effect (lifelong tendency) in both sexes...

  5. Trends in service time of pacemakers in the Netherlands : A long-term nationwide follow-up study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, L. M.; Leening, M. J. G.; Dijk, W. A.; Hooijschuur, C. A. M.; Stricker, B. H. C.; van Hemel, N. M.

    2017-01-01

    Aims: After decades of experience and strongly improved technology, service time of pacemaker generators is expected to increase. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a retrospective review of a large cohort of patients with a pacemaker. Methods: We reviewed data collected between 1984 and 2006 in

  6. Trends in service time of pacemakers in the Netherlands: A long-term nationwide follow-up study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.M. de Vries (Laura); M.J.G. Leening (Maarten); W.A. Dijk (Arnold); C.A.M. Hooijschuur (C. A M); B.H.Ch. Stricker (Bruno); N.M. van Hemel (Norbert)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractAims After decades of experience and strongly improved technology, service time of pacemaker generators is expected to increase. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a retrospective review of a large cohort of patients with a pacemaker. Methods We reviewed data collected between 1984

  7. Time Trends in Epidemiologic Characteristics and Imaging Features of Lung Adenocarcinoma: A Population Study of 21,113 Cases in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Zhang

    Full Text Available This study aims to describe time trends of epidemiologic characteristics and imaging features over 14 years among histologically confirmed lung adenocarcinoma (ADC in China and to discuss the possible reasons for these changes.Data of 21,113 pathologically confirmed lung cancer patients from January 1999 to December 2012 were analyzed retrospectively. Preoperative high-resolution computer tomography (HRCT images were available and reviewed in 5,439 lung ADC patients since 2005. Time trends of the ADC proportion of lung cancer cases, gender distribution, age at diagnosis, the proportion of early-stage ADC and imaging features were investigated.The proportion of ADC increased during the 14 years (P = 0.000. The ratio of female to male ADC cases was higher than both squamous cell carcinoma (SQCC and total lung cancer cases (P = 0.000. The median age at diagnosis of ADC patients was younger than that of both SQCC and total lung cancer during the 14 years (P = 0.000. The proportion of age group 45-59 years increased in total lung cancer cases (P = 0.000. When stratified by lung cancer histopathologic subtypes, this trend was also observed in ADC (P = 0.001 and SQCC (P = 0.007. The proportion of early-stage cases of ADC increased from 2008 to 2012 (P < 0.001. The proportion of subsolid nodules (SSN in ADC increased (P = 0.001 from 2005 to 2012.The data suggests that the proportion of ADC increased from 1999 to 2012 especially in middle-aged, female patients; early-stage ADC and SSN on HRCT images gradually increased, which may have been caused by a change in smoking habits and increased application of HRCT.

  8. Time trends in axilla management among early breast cancer patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gondos, Adam; Jansen, Lina; Heil, Joerg

    2016-01-01

    for a comparative study of axillary management trends among patients with first non-metastatic breast cancer who were not selected for neoadjuvant therapy during the last decade. We used an additional short questionnaire to compare clinical care patterns in 2014. Results Patients treated in cancer centers were......Background We examined time trends in axilla management among patients with early breast cancer in European clinical settings. Material and methods EUROCANPlatform partners, including population-based and cancer center-specific registries, provided routinely available clinical cancer registry data...

  9. Time trends in the incidence of acute lymphoblastic leukemia among children 1976-2002: a population-based Nordic study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Anne Louise; Feychting, Maria; Klaeboe, Lars

    2007-01-01

    We studied the incidence of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden during 1976-2002, on the basis of data from national cancer registries. The incidence of acute lymphoblastic leukemia increased with the calendar period until 1983, and with the birth cohort...

  10. Temporal Trends in Overweight and Obesity, Physical Activity and Screen Time among Czech Adolescents from 2002 to 2014: A National Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigmund, Erik; Sigmundová, Dagmar; Badura, Petr; Kalman, Michal; Hamrik, Zdenek; Pavelka, Jan

    2015-01-01

    This study examines trends in overweight and obesity, physical activity (PA) and screen time (ST) among Czech adolescents over a recent 12-year study period. Nationally representative samples consisted of 19,940 adolescents (9760 boys and 10,180 girls) aged 10.5–16.5 years from the Czech Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) questionnaire-based surveys conducted in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014. Trends in the prevalence of overweight/obesity, meeting the recommendations for moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) (≥60 min per day of MVPA) and excessive ST (>2 h per day) were estimated using logistic regression. Significant increases (p overweight/obesity between the years 2002 and 2014 were evident for both adolescent boys (18.3%2002–24.8%2014) and girls (8.3%2002–11.9%2014). Compared to 2002, in 2014 significant decreases (p overweight/obesity with concomitant decreases in PA provide evidence in support of the current and upcoming efforts of government and commercial organizations in implementing interventions aimed at reducing excessive body weight among Czech adolescents. PMID:26393638

  11. Temporal Trends in Overweight and Obesity, Physical Activity and Screen Time among Czech Adolescents from 2002 to 2014: A National Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigmund, Erik; Sigmundová, Dagmar; Badura, Petr; Kalman, Michal; Hamrik, Zdenek; Pavelka, Jan

    2015-09-18

    This study examines trends in overweight and obesity, physical activity (PA) and screen time (ST) among Czech adolescents over a recent 12-year study period. Nationally representative samples consisted of 19,940 adolescents (9760 boys and 10,180 girls) aged 10.5-16.5 years from the Czech Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) questionnaire-based surveys conducted in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014. Trends in the prevalence of overweight/obesity, meeting the recommendations for moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) (≥60 min per day of MVPA) and excessive ST (>2 h per day) were estimated using logistic regression. Significant increases (p overweight/obesity between the years 2002 and 2014 were evident for both adolescent boys (18.3%(2002)-24.8%(2014)) and girls (8.3%(2002)-11.9%(2014)). Compared to 2002, in 2014 significant decreases (p overweight/obesity with concomitant decreases in PA provide evidence in support of the current and upcoming efforts of government and commercial organizations in implementing interventions aimed at reducing excessive body weight among Czech adolescents.

  12. Distribution of ideal cardiovascular health by educational levels from 1978 to 2006: a time trend study from the capital region of Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Gitte S; Holm, Ann-Sofie S; Jørgensen, Torben; Borglykke, Anders

    2014-09-01

    The focus on improvements in ideal cardiovascular health is a relatively new approach and to our knowledge nobody has published the trend in regard to educational difference. Time trend analysis from six cross-sectional studies in 1978-2006 from the south-western part of the capital region of Denmark. This analysis included 16,935 individuals aged 30-64 years. Ideal cardiovascular health was achieved if all of the following criteria were met: no established cardiovascular disease, no diabetes, no antihypertensive or lipid-lowering treatment, non-smoker, body mass index sex and educational level as length of vocational training. The proportion of women with ideal cardiovascular health increased from 2% in 1978 to 13% in 2006. From 1991, an educational difference occurred, increasing to a 5-fold difference in 2006 between the highest and lowest educated women. For men, a less pronounced increase occurred from 1% in 1978 to 5% in 2006; a change which was only significant among the highest educated. An educational difference occurred from 1986 to 1999 between the highest and lowest educated men, but was no longer present in 2006. The trend for women shows an increasing proportion in ideal cardiovascular health with a more unfavourable risk profile among women with a low educational level. For men, the educational difference was less pronounced probably because very few men reached an ideal cardiovascular risk profile. This stresses the importance for preventive efforts targeting low educated groups, and men in particular. © Authors 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  13. Trends of reporting of ‘serious’vs. ‘non-serious’ adverse drug reactions over time: a study in the French PharmacoVigilance Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moulis, Guillaume; Sommet, Agnès; Durrieu, Geneviève; Bagheri, Haleh; Lapeyre-Mestre, Maryse; Montastruc, Jean-Louis

    2012-01-01

    AIM To investigate trends in spontaneous reporting to the French Pharmacovigilance system of ‘serious’ (SADRs) and ‘non-serious’ (NSADRs) adverse drug reactions over time. METHODS Annual SADR : NSADR ratios were calculated for each drug and their evolution tested with linear trend tests. RESULTS Among the 39 new active substances commercialized in France in 2000, 16 had sufficient data to perform linear trend tests. An increasing linear relation was found for five widely prescribed drugs, a non-significant increasing trend for eight others, i.e. drugs mostly used in hospitals. CONCLUSION ADR reports mainly concern NSADRs during first years of marketing. Reports of SADRs are proportionally more frequent later. PMID:22257367

  14. Trends in hospital admissions and surgical procedures for degenerative lumbar spine disease in England: a 15-year time-series study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivasubramaniam, Vinothan; Patel, Hitesh C; Ozdemir, Baris A; Papadopoulos, Marios C

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Low back pain (LBP), from degenerative lumbar spine disease, represents a significant burden on healthcare resources. Studies worldwide report trends attributable to their country's specific demographics and healthcare system. Considering England's specific medico-socioeconomic conditions, we investigate recent trends in hospital admissions and procedures for LBP, and discuss the implications for the allocation of healthcare resources. Design Retrospective cohort study using Hospital Episode Statistics data relating to degenerative lumbar spine disease in England, between 1999 and 2013. Regression models were used to analyse trends. Outcome measures Trends in the number of admissions and procedures for LBP, mean patient age, gender and length of stay. Results Hospital admissions and procedures have increased significantly over the study period, from 127.09 to 216.16 and from 24.5 to 48.83 per 100 000, respectively, (pdisease, and highlight the need for services capable of dealing with the increased comorbidity burden associated with an ageing patient group. PMID:26671956

  15. Time trends in physical activity in leisure time in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Christina Bjørk; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Helge, Jørn Wulff

    2010-01-01

    To examine time trends in leisure-time physical activity in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005.......To examine time trends in leisure-time physical activity in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005....

  16. Time Trends in Antipsychotic Drug Use in Patients with Dementia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Ane; Jensen-Dahm, Christina; Gasse, Christiane

    2015-01-01

    : To investigate time trends in use of antipsychotics and other psychotropic drugs in dementia care. METHODS: The study included longitudinal data on all Danish residents ≥65 years. The study population was defined on January 1 of each year from 2000-2012. Data included prescriptions, discharge diagnoses......, and somatic and psychiatric comorbidities. Multivariate time trend analyses of psychotropic drug use in patients with dementia within 4-year age bands were performed. RESULTS: Overall, among patients with dementia the prevalence of antipsychotic drug use decreased from 31.3% in 2000 to 20.4% in 2012...... increased as the annual median number of defined daily doses (DDD) increased from 33.3 to 42.0 DDD. CONCLUSIONS: The changing patterns of psychotropic drug use may be caused by warnings against use of antipsychotics. Further research is needed to explore the implications for patient safety....

  17. Mortality in Dutch hospitals: trends in time, place and cause of death after admission for myocardial infarction and stroke. An observational study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slobbe, Laurentius C. J.; Arah, Onyebuchi A.; de Bruin, Agnes; Westert, Gert P.

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Patterns in time, place and cause of death can have an important impact on calculated hospital mortality rates. Objective is to quantify these patterns following myocardial infarction and stroke admissions in Dutch hospitals during the period 1996-2003, and to compare trends in the

  18. Temporal Trends in Overweight and Obesity, Physical Activity and Screen Time among Czech Adolescents from 2002 to 2014: A National Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Sigmund

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This study examines trends in overweight and obesity, physical activity (PA and screen time (ST among Czech adolescents over a recent 12-year study period. Nationally representative samples consisted of 19,940 adolescents (9760 boys and 10,180 girls aged 10.5–16.5 years from the Czech Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC questionnaire-based surveys conducted in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014. Trends in the prevalence of overweight/obesity, meeting the recommendations for moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA (≥60 min per day of MVPA and excessive ST (>2 h per day were estimated using logistic regression. Significant increases (p < 0.001 in the prevalence of overweight/obesity between the years 2002 and 2014 were evident for both adolescent boys (18.3%2002–24.8%2014 and girls (8.3%2002–11.9%2014. Compared to 2002, in 2014 significant decreases (p < 0.001 in meeting MVPA recommendations were observed among boys (32.2%2002–25.6%2014 and girls (23.2%2002–19.2%2014. Moreover, in boys we observed significant increases (p < 0.001 in excessive ST on weekdays (75.1%2002–88.8%2014, as well as on weekends (78.3%2002–91.9%2014 between the years 2002 and 2014. Increases in overweight/obesity with concomitant decreases in PA provide evidence in support of the current and upcoming efforts of government and commercial organizations in implementing interventions aimed at reducing excessive body weight among Czech adolescents.

  19. Trend Over Time for Cholecystectomy following the Introduction of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2018-03-05

    Mar 5, 2018 ... Trend Over Time for Cholecystectomy following the Introduction of. Laparoscopy in a Nigerian Tertiary ... How to cite this article: Adisa AO, Lawal OO, Adejuyigbe O. Trend over time for cholecystectomy following .... The challenges with record keeping in the era of open cholecystectomy in our center made it ...

  20. Parkinson's disease incidence: magnitude, comparability, time trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Pedro-Cuesta, J; Stawiarz, L

    1991-11-01

    In this study, we reviewed incidence surveys of Parkinson's Disease (PD) from all over the world, published during the period 1945-1989, using reported quality criteria. In addition, we compared age-specific PD incidences from selected observations by stratified analysis. Crude incidences were described for 11 populations, and age-specific incidences for three of them: Iceland, Rochester (Minn, USA), and Turku (Finland). Effect modification by age was detected: a) by comparing incidences by age at diagnosis with incidence by age at clinical disease onset; and b) when only data on onset of disease was computed. For disease onsets, the incidences in Rochester for the period 1955-1966, and in Turku (Finland) during the interval 1968-1970, were lower than that in Iceland for the period 1958-1960: RR = 0.58 95% CI (0.41, 0.83), and RR = 0.67 95% CI (0.51, 0.87), respectively. For the Rochester population aged 40-69 years, a statistically significant 56% decrease in the incidences of Parkinsonism onsets during the period 1945-1966 was found. Validity problems in comparing PD incidences and the role of PD underdiagnosis were emphasized. We concluded that: a) stratified analysis is more suitable than standardization when comparing incidences for etiological purposes; b) the incidence of PD was highest in Iceland; and c) in Rochester, PD incidence under the age of 70 decreased with time.

  1. Fractionation and current time trends of PCB congeners: evolvement of distributions 1950–2010 studied using a global atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Lammel

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available PCBs are ubiquitous environmental pollutants expected to decline in abiotic environmental media in response to decreasing primary emissions since the 1970s. A coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with embedded dynamic sub-models for atmospheric aerosols and the marine biogeochemistry and air-surface exchange processes with soils, vegetation and the cryosphere is used to study the transport and fate of four PCB congeners covering a range of 3–7 chlorine atoms.

    The change of the geographic distribution of the PCB mixture reflects the sources and sinks' evolvement over time. Globally, secondary emissions (re-volatilisation from surfaces are on the long term increasingly gaining importance over primary emissions. Secondary emissions are most important for the congeners with 5–6 chlorine atoms. Correspondingly, the levels of these congeners are predicted to decrease slowest. Changes in congener mixture composition (fractionation are characterized both geographically and temporally. In high latitudes enrichment of the lighter, less persistent congeners and more delayed decreasing levels in response to decreasing emissions are found. The delivery of the contaminants to high latitudes is predicted to be more efficient than previously suggested. The results suggest furthermore that the effectiveness of emission control measures may significantly vary among substances. The trends of decline of organic contaminant levels in the abiotic environmental media do not only vary with latitude (slow in high latitudes, but do also show longitudinal gradients.

  2. Time trends in the natural dizygotic twinning rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derom, Catherine; Gielen, Marij; Peeters, Hilde; Frijns, Jean-Pierre; Zeegers, Maurice P A

    2011-08-01

    The natural dizygotic (DZ) twinning rate has been proposed as a reliable and useful measure of human fecundity, if adjusted for maternal age at twin birth. The aim of this study was to analyze age-adjusted trends in natural DZ twinning rates over the past 40 years using data from the 'East Flanders Prospective Twin Survey (EFPTS)'. This study involved 4835 naturally conceived twin pregnancies between 1969 and 2009 from the population-based Belgian 'EFPTS'. Age-adjusted trends in the incidence of natural DZ twin pregnancies were calculated using a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. Both the natural DZ twinning rates and maternal age at twin birth increased in a linear fashion from 1969 to 2009. When age-adjusted, we found that the trend in the natural DZ twinning rate was stable during the whole time period. According to our population-based data and after age-adjustment, a stable natural DZ twinning rate could be observed over the last four decades. Under the assumption that the spontaneous DZ twinning rate is a sensor of fecundity, this indicates a stable 'high' fecundity for this population.

  3. Comparisons between mild and severe cases of hand, foot and mouth disease in temporal trends: a comparative time series study from mainland China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Xiong; Liao, Qiaohong; Kenward, Michael G; Zheng, Yaming; Huang, Jiao; Yin, Fei; Yu, Hongjie; Li, Xiaosong

    2016-10-21

    Over recent decades, hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has emerged as a serious public health threat in the Asia-Pacific region because of its high rates of severe complications. Understanding the differences and similarities between mild and severe cases can be helpful in the control of HFMD. In this study, we compared the two types of HFMD cases in their temporal trends. We retrieved the daily series of disease counts of mild and severe HFMD cases reported in mainland China in the period of 2009-2014. We applied a quasi-Poisson regression model to decompose each series into the long-term linear trend, periodic variations, and short-term fluctuations, and then we compared each component between two series separately. A total of 11,101,860 clinical HFMD cases together with 115,596 severe cases were included into this analysis. We found a biennial increase of 24.46 % (95 % CI: 22.80-26.14 %) for the baseline of disease incidence of mild cases, whereas a biennial decrease of 8.80 % (95 % CI: 7.26-10.31 %) was seen for that of severe cases. The periodic variations of both two series could be characterized by a mixture of biennial, annual, semi-annual and eight-monthly cycles. However, compared to the mild cases, we found the severe cases vary more widely for the biennial and annual cycle, and started its annual epidemic earlier. We also found the short-term fluctuations between two series were still significantly correlated at the current day with a correlation coefficient of 0.46 (95 % CI: 0.43-0.49). We found some noticeable differences and also similarities between the daily series of mild and severe HFMD cases at different time scales. Our findings can help us to deepen the understanding of the transmission of different types of HFMD cases, and also provide evidences for the planning of the associated disease control strategies.

  4. Comparisons between mild and severe cases of hand, foot and mouth disease in temporal trends: a comparative time series study from mainland China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiong Xiao

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Over recent decades, hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD has emerged as a serious public health threat in the Asia-Pacific region because of its high rates of severe complications. Understanding the differences and similarities between mild and severe cases can be helpful in the control of HFMD. In this study, we compared the two types of HFMD cases in their temporal trends. Methods We retrieved the daily series of disease counts of mild and severe HFMD cases reported in mainland China in the period of 2009–2014. We applied a quasi-Poisson regression model to decompose each series into the long-term linear trend, periodic variations, and short-term fluctuations, and then we compared each component between two series separately. Results A total of 11,101,860 clinical HFMD cases together with 115,596 severe cases were included into this analysis. We found a biennial increase of 24.46 % (95 % CI: 22.80–26.14 % for the baseline of disease incidence of mild cases, whereas a biennial decrease of 8.80 % (95 % CI: 7.26–10.31 % was seen for that of severe cases. The periodic variations of both two series could be characterized by a mixture of biennial, annual, semi-annual and eight-monthly cycles. However, compared to the mild cases, we found the severe cases vary more widely for the biennial and annual cycle, and started its annual epidemic earlier. We also found the short-term fluctuations between two series were still significantly correlated at the current day with a correlation coefficient of 0.46 (95 % CI: 0.43–0.49. Conclusions We found some noticeable differences and also similarities between the daily series of mild and severe HFMD cases at different time scales. Our findings can help us to deepen the understanding of the transmission of different types of HFMD cases, and also provide evidences for the planning of the associated disease control strategies.

  5. Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

    2017-04-01

    Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological

  6. Time trends & mechanism of soil acidification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wesselink, L.G.

    1994-01-01

    The effects of acid atmospheric deposition on forest ecosystems have been studied intensively in the past two decades. Measurements of element budgets in forested ecosystems throughout the world have shown that acid deposition may deplete stores of exchangeable base cations in the soil,

  7. Time trend in hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control in a contemporary cohort of HIV-infected patients: the HIV and Hypertension Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Socio, Giuseppe Vittorio; Ricci, Elena; Maggi, Paolo; Parruti, Giustino; Celesia, Benedetto Maurizio; Orofino, Giancarlo; Madeddu, Giordano; Martinelli, Canio; Menzaghi, Barbara; Taramasso, Lucia; Bonfanti, Paolo; Pucci, Giacomo; Schillaci, Giuseppe

    2017-02-01

    Hypertension control is often inadequate in HIV patients. In a contemporary, nationwide cohort of Italian HIV-infected adults, we assessed time trends in hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control. We also evaluated predictors of cardiovascular events and of new-onset hypertension. Multicenter prospective cohort study, sampling 961 consecutive HIV patients (71% men, mean age 46 ± 9 years, 30% hypertensive) examined in 2010-2014 and after a median follow-up of 3.4 years. Among hypertensive patients, hypertension awareness (63% at baseline and 92% at follow-up), treatment (54 vs. 79%), and control (35 vs. 59%) all improved during follow-up. The incidence of new-onset hypertension was 50.1/1000 person-years (95% confidence interval, 41.2-60.3). Multivariable-adjusted predictors of hypertension were age, BMI, estimated cardiovascular risk, blood pressure, and advanced HIV clinical stage.In total, 35 new cardiovascular events were reported during follow-up (11.1/1000 person-years). In a multivariate model, baseline cardiovascular risk and hypertensive status predicted incident cardiovascular events, whereas a higher CD4 cell count had a protective role. In treated hypertensive patients, the use of integrase strand transfer inhibitors at follow-up was associated with a lower SBP (average yearly change, -3.8 ± 1.6 vs. -0.9 ± 0.5 mmHg in integrase strand transfer inhibitor users vs. nonusers, respectively, P = 0.02). Hypertension awareness, treatment, and control rates all improved in adult Italian HIV patients over the last few years, although hypertension remains highly prevalent (41%) in middle-aged HIV patients, and significantly impacts cardiovascular morbidity. Traditional risk factors and advanced HIV disease predict new-onset hypertension, whereas CD4 cell count favorably affects future cardiovascular events.

  8. Disparities and Trends in Door-to-Needle Time: The FL-PR CReSD Study (Florida-Puerto Rico Collaboration to Reduce Stroke Disparities).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oluwole, Sofia A; Wang, Kefeng; Dong, Chuanhui; Ciliberti-Vargas, Maria A; Gutierrez, Carolina M; Yi, Li; Romano, Jose G; Perez, Enmanuel; Tyson, Brittany Ann; Ayodele, Maranatha; Asdaghi, Negar; Gardener, Hannah; Rose, David Z; Garcia, Enid J; Zevallos, Juan Carlos; Foster, Dianne; Robichaux, Mary; Waddy, Salina P; Sacco, Ralph L; Rundek, Tatjana

    2017-08-01

    In the United States, about half of acute ischemic stroke patients treated with tPA (tissue-type plasminogen activator) receive treatment within 60 minutes of hospital arrival. We aimed to determine the proportion of patients receiving tPA within 60 minutes (door-to-needle time [DTNT] ≤60) and 45 minutes (DTNT ≤45) of hospital arrival by race/ethnicity and sex and to identify temporal trends in DTNT ≤60 and DTNT ≤45. Among 65 654 acute ischemic stroke admissions in the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke-funded FL-PR CReSD study (Florida-Puerto Rico Collaboration to Reduce Stroke Disparities) from 2010 to 2015, we included 6181 intravenous tPA-treated cases (9.4%). Generalized estimating equations were used to determine predictors of DTNT ≤60 and DTNT ≤45. DTNT ≤60 was achieved in 42% and DTNT ≤45 in 18% of cases. After adjustment, women less likely received DTNT ≤60 (odds ratio, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.92) and DTNT ≤45 (odds ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.93). Compared with Whites, Blacks less likely had DTNT ≤45 during off hours (odds ratio, 0.68; 95% confidence interval, 0.47-0.98). Achievement of DTNT ≤60 and DTNT ≤45 was highest in South Florida (50%, 23%) and lowest in West Central Florida (28%, 11%). In the FL-PR CReSD, achievement of DTNT ≤60 and DTNT ≤45 remains low. Compared with Whites, Blacks less likely receive tPA treatment within 45 minutes during off hours. Treatment within 60 and 45 minutes is lower in women compared with men and lowest in West Central Florida compared with other Florida regions and Puerto Rico. Further research is needed to identify reasons for delayed thrombolytic treatment in women and Blacks and factors contributing to regional disparities in DTNT. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  9. Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

    2014-02-01

    The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

  10. Water vapour fluxes trends on different time scales and their relationship with weather and soil drivers: a case study from a dehesa site in South Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polo, María José; Egüen, Marta; Andreu, Ana; Carpintero, Elisabet; Gómez-Giráldez, Pedro; Patrocinio González-Dugo, María

    2017-04-01

    Water vapour fluxes between the soil surface and the atmosphere constitute one of the most important components of the water cycle in the continental areas. Their regime directly affect the availability of water to plants, water storage in surface bodies, air humidity in the boundary layer, snow persistence… among others, and the list of indirectly affected processes comprises a large number of components. Water potential or wetness gradients are some of the main drivers of water vapour fluxes to the atmosphere; soil humidity is usually monitored as key variable in many hydrological and environmental studies, and its estimated series are used to calibrate and validate the modelling of certain hydrological processes. However, such results may differ when water fluxes are used instead of water state variables, such as humidity. This work shows the analysis of high resolution water vapour fluxes series from a dehesa area in South Spain where a complete energy and water fluxes/variables monitoring site has been operating for the last four years. The results include pasture and tree vegetated control points. The daily water budget calculation on both types of sites has been performed from weather and energy fluxes measurements, and soil moisture measurements, and the results have been aggregated on a weekly, monthly and seasonal basis. Comparison between observed trends of soil moisture and calculated trends of water vapour fluxes is included to show the differences arising in terms of the regime of the dominant weather variables in this type of ecosystems. The results identify significant thresholds for each weather variable driver and highlight the importance of the wind regime, which is the somehow forgotten variable in future climate impacts on hydrology. Further work is being carried out to assess water cycle potential trends under future climate conditions and their impacts on the vegetation in dehesa ecosystems.

  11. Trends in HIV testing, prevalence among first-time testers, and incidence in most-at-risk populations in Spain: the EPI-VIH Study, 2000 to 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diez, M; Bleda, M J; Varela, J R; Ordonana, J; Azpiri, M A; Vall, M; Santos, C; Viloria, L; de Armas, C; Urena, J M; Trullen, J; Pueyo, I; Martinez, B; Puerta, T; Vera, M; Sanz, I; Junquera, M L; Landa, M C; Martinez, E; Camara, M M; Belda, J; Bru, F J; Diaz, A

    2014-11-27

    During 2000 to 2009, data on people undergoing HIV testing and on those newly diagnosed with HIV were collected in a network of 20 Spanish clinics specialising in sexually transmitted infections and/or HIV testing and counselling. The number of tests performed, overall and disaggregated by different variables, was obtained. HIV prevalence among first-time testers and HIV incidence among repeat testers were calculated. To evaluate trends, joinpoint regression models were fitted. In total, 236,939 HIV tests were performed for 165,745 individuals. Overall HIV prevalence among persons seeking HIV testing was 2.5% (95% CI: 2.4 to 2.6). Prevalence was highest in male sex workers who had sex with other men (19.0% (95% CI: 16.7 to 21.4)) and was lowest in female sex workers (0.8% (95% CI: 0.7 to 0.9)). Significant trends in prevalence were observed in men who have sex with men (MSM) (increasing) and heterosexual individuals (decreasing). The incidence analysis included 30,679 persons, 64,104 person-years (py) of follow-up and 642 seroconversions. The overall incidence rate (IR) was 1.0/100 py (95% CI: 0.9/100 to 1.1/100). Incidence was significantly higher in men and transgender females than in women (1.8/100 py (95% CI: 1.6 to 1.9), 1.2/100 py (95% CI: 0.5 to 2.8) and 0.1/100 py (95% CI: 0.09 to 0.2) respectively) and increased with age until 35–39 years. IRs in MSM and people who inject drugs were significantly greater than in heterosexual individuals (2.5/100 py (95% CI: 2.3 to 2.7), 1.6/100 py (95% CI: 1.1 to 2.2) and 0.1/100 py (95% CI: 0.09 to 0.2) respectively), and an upward trend was observed in MSM. Our results call for HIV prevention to be reinforced in MSM and transgender women in Spain.

  12. Seasonal adjustment methods and real time trend-cycle estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Bee Dagum, Estela

    2016-01-01

    This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportat...

  13. Detecting cognizable trends of gene expression in a time series ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Genetics; Volume 95; Issue 3. Detecting cognizable trends of gene expression in a time series RNA-sequencing experiment: a bootstrap approach. SHATAKSHEE CHATTERJEE PARTHA P. MAJUMDER PRIYANKA PANDEY. RESEARCH ARTICLE Volume 95 Issue 3 September 2016 pp 587- ...

  14. Three measures of longevity: time trends and record values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canudas-Romo, V

    2010-01-01

    This article examines the trend over time in the measures of “typical” longevity experienced by members of a population: life expectancy at birth, and the median and modal ages at death. The article also analyzes trends in record values observed for all three measures. The record life expectancy...... at birth increased from a level of 44 years in Sweden in 1840 to 82 years in Japan in 2005. The record median age at death shows increasing patterns similar to those observed in life expectancy at birth. However, the record modal age at death changes very little until the second half of the twentieth...

  15. Determinants and Time Trends for Ischaemic and Haemorrhagic Stroke in a Large Chinese Population

    OpenAIRE

    Guo, Yutao; Wang, Hao; Tao, Tao; Tian, Yingchun; Wang, Yutang; Chen, Yundai; Lip, Gregory Y. H.

    2016-01-01

    Background The clinical epidemiology of stroke has been widely investigated in Caucasian populations, but the changes over time in the proportion of ischaemic to haemorrhagic strokes is less clear, especially in the Chinese population. Aims Our objective was to study the determinants and time trends for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke, in relation to age, in a large Chinese population cohort. Methods Using a medical insurance database in the southwest of China from 2001 to 2012, time trends...

  16. A school based study of time trends in food habits and their relation to socio-economic status among Norwegian adolescents, 2001-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fismen, Anne-Siri; Smith, Otto Robert Frans; Torsheim, Torbjørn; Samdal, Oddrun

    2014-09-25

    In recent years, adolescents' food habits have become a major source of concern, and substantial policy and intervention efforts have been made to influence adolescents to consume more fruit and vegetables and less sweets and soft drink. Particular attention has been devoted to the social gradient in food habits, aiming to reduce dietary inequality. However, few internationally published studies have evaluated trends in teenagers' food habits, or investigated how dietary inequalities develop. We used Norwegian cross-sectional data from the international Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children (HBSC) study, collected via three nationally representative and comparable questionnaire surveys in 2001, 2005 and 2009. Food habits were identified by students' consumption of fruit, vegetables, sweets and sugar rich soft drink. Socio-economic status (SES) was measured with the Family Affluence Scale (FAS). Multilevel logistic regression was used to analyze the data. The analyses indicated an overall positive trend in food habits among adolescents in Norway. Students were more likely to consume fruit (OR 1.76, CI 1.61-1.92) and vegetables (OR 1.51, CI 1.37-1.66) daily in 2005 as compared to 2001, and were less likely to consume sweets (OR 0.58, CI 0.51-0.66 resp. OR 0.77, CI 0.67-0.90) and soft drink (OR 0.55, CI 0.49-0.62 resp. OR 0.84, CI 0.73-0.96) daily when comparing, respectively, 2005 with 2001 and 2009 with 2005. Across all survey years, students with higher SES were more likely to eat fruit (OR 1.47, CI 1.32-1.65) and vegetables (OR 1.40, CI 1.24-1.58) daily than did students with lower SES. Our analyses indicated that the socio-economic differences were stable in the period 2002 - 2010, with uniform improvement in fruit and vegetable consumption across all SES levels. No significant associations between SES and intake of sweets and sugar-added soft drink were found. The study identifies an overall improvement in diet among adolescents over a period characterized by

  17. An evaluation of prescribing trends and patterns of claims within the Preferred Drugs Initiative in Ireland (2011-2016): an interrupted time-series study.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    McDowell, Ronald

    2018-04-20

    To examine the impact of the Preferred Drugs Initiative (PDI), an Irish health policy aimed at enhancing evidence-based cost-effective prescribing, on prescribing trends and the cost of prescription medicines across seven medication classes.

  18. Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Chaolong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1 is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

  19. United States Forest Disturbance Trends Observed Using Landsat Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masek, Jeffrey G.; Goward, Samuel N.; Kennedy, Robert E.; Cohen, Warren B.; Moisen, Gretchen G.; Schleeweis, Karen; Huang, Chengquan

    2013-01-01

    Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing U.S. land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest disturbance across the conterminous United States for 1985-2005. The geographic sample design used a probability-based scheme to encompass major forest types and maximize geographic dispersion. For each sample location disturbance was identified in the Landsat series using the Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) algorithm. The NAFD analysis indicates that, on average, 2.77 Mha/yr of forests were disturbed annually, representing 1.09%/yr of US forestland. These satellite-based national disturbance rates estimates tend to be lower than those derived from land management inventories, reflecting both methodological and definitional differences. In particular the VCT approach used with a biennial time step has limited sensitivity to low-intensity disturbances. Unlike prior satellite studies, our biennial forest disturbance rates vary by nearly a factor of two between high and low years. High western US disturbance rates were associated with active fire years and insect activity, while variability in the east is more strongly related to harvest rates in managed forests. We note that generating a geographic sample based on representing forest type and variability may be problematic since the spatial pattern of disturbance does not necessarily correlate with forest type. We also find that the prevalence of diffuse, non-stand clearing disturbance in US forests makes the application of a biennial geographic sample problematic. Future satellite-based studies of disturbance at regional and national scales should focus on wall-to-wall analyses with annual time step for improved accuracy.

  20. Nutrient trends through time in Sweden's Baltic Drainage Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, I.; Destouni, G.; Prieto, C.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in climate and land-use have and will continue to modify regional hydrology, in turn impacting environmental health, agricultural productivity and water resource quality and availability. The Baltic region is an area of interest as the coast spans nine countries- serving over 100 million people. The Baltic Sea contains one of the largest human caused hypoxic dead zones due to eutrophication driven by anthropogenic excess loading of nutrients. Policies to reduce these loads include also international directives and agreements, such as the EU Water Framework Directive, adopted in 2000 to protect and improve water quality throughout the European Union, and the Baltic Sea Action Plan under the Helsinki Commission aimed specifically at reducing the nutrient loading to and mitigating the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. In light of these policies and amidst the number of studies on the Baltic Sea we ask, using the accessible nutrient and discharge data what does nutrient loading look like today? Are the most excessive loads going down? Observed nutrient and flow time series across Sweden allow for answering these questions, by spatial and temporal trend analysis of loads from various parts of Sweden to the Baltic Sea. Analyzing these observed time series in conjunction with the ecological health status classifications of the EU Water Framework Directive, allows in particular for answering the question if the loads into the water bodies with the poorest water quality, and from those to the Baltic Sea, are improving, being maintained or deteriorating. Such insight is required to contribute to relevant and efficient water and nutrient load management. Furthermore, empirically calculating nutrient loads, rather than only modeling, reveals that the water body health classification may not reflect what water bodies actually contribute the heaviest loads to the Baltic Sea. This work also underscores the importance of comprehensive analysis of all available data from

  1. Methodological issues in analyzing time trends in biologic fertility: protection bias

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Key, Jane; Best, Nicky; Joffe, Michael

    2009-01-01

    One method of assessing biologic fertility is to measure time to pregnancy (TTP). Accidental pregnancies do not generate a valid TTP value and lead to nonrandom missing data if couples experiencing accidental pregnancies are more fertile than the general population. If factors affecting the rate...... of accidental pregnancies, such as availability of effective contraception and induced abortion, vary over time, then the result may be protection bias in the estimates of fertility time trends. Six European data sets were analyzed to investigate whether evidence of protection bias exists in TTP studies...... of fertility trends in Europe over the past 50 years. Couples experiencing accidental pregnancies tended to be more fertile than the general population. However, trends in accidental pregnancy rates were inconsistent across countries and were insufficient to produce substantial bias in fertility trends...

  2. Statistical trend of radiation chemical studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Hiroshi

    1980-01-01

    In the field of radiation chemistry, over 1,000 reports are published year after year. Attempt has been made to review the trends in this field for more than five years, by looking through the lists of papers statistically. As for the period from 1974 to 1978, Annual Cumulation with Keyword and Author Indexes in the Biweekly List of Papers on Radiation Chemistry was referred to. For 1979, because of the unavailability of the Cumulation, Chemical Abstracts Search by Japan Information Center of Science and Technology was referred to. The contents are as follows: how far radiation chemistry is studied, what the trends of radiation chemistry is in recent years, who contributes to the advance of radiation chemistry, and where, the trend radiation chemistry takes in 1979. (J.P.N.)

  3. Determinants of changes in income-related health inequalities among working-age adults in Japan, 1986-2007: time-trend study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kachi, Yuko; Inoue, Mariko; Nishikitani, Mariko; Tsurugano, Shinobu; Yano, Eiji

    2013-03-01

    This study aimed to quantify the contributions of the factors that have influenced changes in income-related health inequalities. We used data from a nationally representative sample of Japanese men and women aged 20-59 years who participated in eight repeated cross-sectional surveys between 1986 and 2007. A concentration index (CI) was used to measure income-related inequalities in self-rated health (SRH) and decomposed into contributing factors. We then examined temporal changes in CIs and their contributing factors. Results showed that income-related inequalities in SRH, unfavourable to low-income groups, persisted throughout the study period. Despite widening income inequalities, inequalities in SRH narrowed during the period of economic stagnation since the late 1990s because of the profound deterioration in SRH among middle- to high-income groups. Decomposition analysis showed that income itself and unemployment or economic inactivity were the most important contributors to inequalities in SRH for both sexes at almost all time points. However, from 1986 to 2007, the relative contribution of income to these inequalities decreased from 78% to 14% in men and from 85% to 38% in women. By contrast, the relative contribution of unemployment or economic inactivity increased from 18% to 77% in men and from 10% to 31% in women. Our results suggest that a reduction in avoidable health inequalities could be achieved by reducing the influence of unemployment or economic inactivity on health. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Are the time trends in adolescent psychosomatic problems related to functional impairment in daily life? A 23-year study among 20,000 15-16year olds in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Geelen, Stefan M; Hagquist, Curt

    2016-08-01

    Worldwide there are frequent reports on increasing psychosomatic problems, anxiety, emotional distress, conduct problems, and depression among adolescents. Recently, it was contended that secular studies on such aspects of adolescent mental health can only be evaluated adequately when data on symptom prevalence are analyzed together with data on functional impairment. Still, this has not yet been done in epidemiological time-trend studies on any aspect of adolescent mental health. Therefore, this study aims to investigate if, and to what extent, changes in adolescents' symptoms of psychosomatic problems are affected when data on functional impairment are taken into account simultaneously. A repeated cross-sectional population study relating self-reported symptoms of psychosomatic problems to functional impairment; covering the time-period 1988-2011 and including 19.823 adolescents 15-16years old in eight cohorts in one geographically defined population (Värmland, Sweden). The proportion of adolescents with psychosomatic problems had increased significantly from 1988 to 2005/2008. In all cohorts the proportion of girls with psychosomatic problems was significantly higher than the proportion of boys reporting symptoms. Over the same period, there was a corresponding significant increase of the proportion of participants with symptoms of psychosomatic problems in combination with functional impairment. Adding functional impairment to the measure of psychosomatic problems decreased the prevalence rates, while the shapes of the trend-curves stayed congruent in form. The long-term pattern of increasing psychosomatic problems among adolescents remains evident, even when taking functional impairment data into account. Previously observed trends of a deteriorating adolescent mental health are thus consistent with this study. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Radioactive contamination in Norwegian fish and seafood 1960-2013: time trends and geographical trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heldal, Hilde Elise; Svaeren, Ingrid; Liebig, Penny Lee [Institute of Marine Research, P. O. Box 1870 Nordnes, N-5817 Bergen (Norway); Brungot, Anne Lene; Gaefvert, Torbjoern; Rudjord, Anne Liv [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, P.O. Box 55, N-1332 Oesteraas (Norway); Gwynn, Justin [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, The Fram Centre, N-9296 Tromsoe (Norway)

    2014-07-01

    Barents Sea in 2012). However, time trends and geographical trends are clearly evident in the datasets. For example, the impact of fallout from the Chernobyl accident could be observed, particularly in samples collected in coastal areas and the Kattegat/Skagerrak and the North Sea. In recent decades there has been a slow decrease in the activity concentrations of most anthropogenic radionuclides in fish and seafood as a result of decreasing discharges from European reprocessing plants for spent nuclear fuel and the reduced impact of fallout from the Chernobyl accident. In the case of {sup 99}Tc however, activity concentrations in seawater and certain biota increased to peak values around 2000 as a result of increased discharges from Sellafield (UK) in the 1990's. In open sea areas, the activity concentrations of {sup 137}Cs in fish and seafood have been highest in the Skagerrak and the North Sea due to the proximity to the reprocessing plants at Sellafield and Cap la Hague (France) and outflowing Chernobyl-contaminated seawater from the Baltic Sea. Activity concentrations of {sup 137}Cs in fish and seafood collected in fjords in mid-Norway are up to an order of magnitude higher than in the open sea areas due to terrestrial run-off from Chernobyl fallout in Norway. (authors)

  6. Time-space trends in cancer incidence in The Netherlands in 1989–2003

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siesling, Sabine; van der Aa, Maaike A.; Coebergh, Jan W.W.; Pukkala, Eero

    2008-01-01

    Incidence of cancer may vary within a country and over time because of previous differences in exposure to risk factors or interventions for early detection (screening). This study describes time-space trends of incidence of common cancer sites across the Netherlands during the period 1989–2003 and

  7. Detection and attribution of trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mediero, Luis; Santillán, David; Garrote, Luis; Granados, Alfredo

    2014-09-01

    An analysis to detect trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods was conducted in Spain through nine flood indicators. A data set of gauging stations where the effect of dam regulation on flow series is negligible was obtained. Annual maximum and peaks-over-threshold series were extracted in three periods: 1942-2009, 1949-2009 and 1959-2009. A pre-whitening procedure was applied to remove serial correlation and the Mann-Kendall test selected to detect trends. A general decreasing trend in magnitude and frequency of floods was detected in the three periods, with more notable evidence in 1959-2009. An increasing trend in the timing (i.e. towards later floods) was also found in the northwest of Spain. In addition, a study to relate detected flood trends to a set of potential drivers was also conducted. Most such trends in flood series could be explained by corresponding and increasing trends in evapotranspiration that increase water losses in soils and decrease soil moisture content before the occurrence of floods.

  8. [Homicide and public security indicator trends in the city of São Paulo between 1996 and 2008: a time-series ecological study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peres, Maria Fernanda Tourinho; de Almeida, Juliana Feliciano; Vicentin, Diego; Ruotti, Caren; Nery, Marcelo Batista; Cerda, Magdalena; Cardia, Nancy; Adorno, Sérgio

    2012-12-01

    The scope of this paper was to analyze the association between homicides and public security indicators in São Paulo between 1996 and 2008, after monitoring the unemployment rate and the proportion of youths in the population. A time-series ecological study for 1996 and 2008 was conducted with São Paulo as the unit of analysis. Dependent variable: number of deaths by homicide per year. Main independent variables: arrest-incarceration rate, access to firearms, police activity. Data analysis was conducted using Stata.IC 10.0 software. Simple and multivariate negative binomial regression models were created. Deaths by homicide and arrest-incarceration, as well as police activity were significantly associated in simple regression analysis. Access to firearms was not significantly associated to the reduction in the number of deaths by homicide (p>0,05). After adjustment, the associations with both the public security indicators were not significant. In São Paulo the role of public security indicators are less important as explanatory factors for a reduction in homicide rates, after adjustment for unemployment rate and a reduction in the proportion of youths. The results reinforce the importance of socioeconomic and demographic factors for a change in the public security scenario in São Paulo .

  9. Trends in television and computer/videogame use and total screen time in high school students from Caruaru city, Pernambuco, Brazil: A repeated panel study between 2007 and 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis José Lagos Aros

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Aim: to analyze the pattern and trends of use of screen-based devices and associated factors from two surveys conducted on public high school students in Caruaru-PE. Methods: two representative school-based cross-sectional surveys conducted in 2007 (n=600 and 2012 (n=715 on high school students (15-20 years old. The time of exposure to television (TV and computer/videogames PC/VG was obtained through a validated questionnaire, and ≥3 hours/day was considered as being excessive exposure. The independent variables were socioeconomic status, school related, and physical activity. Crude and adjusted binary logistic regression were employed to examine the factors associated with screen time. The statistical significance was set at p<0.05. Results: There was a significant reduction in TV time on weekdays and total weekly, but no change in the prevalence of excessive exposure. The proportion of exposure to PC/VG of ≥3 hours/day increased 182.5% on weekdays and 69.5% on weekends (p <0.05. In 2007, being physically active was the only protection factor for excessive exposure to total screen time. In 2012, girls presented less chance of excessive exposure to all screen-based devices and total screen time. Other protective factors were studying at night and being physically active (PC/VG time, while residing in an urban area [OR 5.03(2.77-7.41] and having higher family income [OR 1.55(1.04-2.30] were risk factors. Conclusion: Significant and important changes in the time trends and pattern of use PC/VG were observed during the interval of 5 years. This rapid increase could be associated with increased family income and improved access to these devices, driven by technological developments.

  10. Time trends in 30 day case-fatality following hospitalisation for asthma in adults in Scotland: a retrospective cohort study from 1981 to 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Nicola J; Lewsey, James D; Gillies, Michelle; Briggs, Andrew H; Belozeroff, Vasily; Globe, Denise R; Chiou, Chiun-Fang; Lin, Shao-Lee; Globe, Gary

    2013-08-01

    The risk of case-fatality following hospitalisation for asthma has not been well characterised. We describe trends in 30 day case-fatality following hospitalisation for asthma in adults in Scotland from 1981 to 2009. Using the Scottish Morbidity Record Scheme (SMR01) with all asthma hospitalisations for adults (≥18 years) with ICD9 493 and ICD10 J45-J46 in the principal diagnostic position at discharge (1981-2009). These data were linked to mortality data from the General Register Office for Scotland (GROS), with asthma case-fatality defined as death within 30 days of asthma admission (in or out of hospital). Logistic regression was used to explore the impact of age, sex, previous asthma admission (in the 12 months prior to hospitalisation), socioeconomic deprivation, year of admission and co-morbidity on 30-day case-fatality. There were a total of 116,457 asthma hospitalisations; a total of 1000 (0.9%) hospitalisations resulted in a post-admission death (within 30 days of admission). Odds ratios for unadjusted and adjusted case-fatality showed a decreased risk of case-fatality from the mid-1990s onwards when compared to case-fatality in 1981. Advancing age and co-morbid diagnoses of respiratory failure, cancer, renal failure, cor pulmonale, coronary heart disease and respiratory infection were associated with increased likelihood of death. 30 day case-fatality has declined over the last three decades, comparable to case-fatality reported in other parts of the U.K. This decline may be in part due to improved guidelines, protocols and disease management for asthma over the last 30 years. The likelihood of death 30 days following an asthma admission increased with age group and was associated with respiratory failure, renal failure and cancer. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

    2013-01-01

    Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

  12. Observed and projected trends in paediatric health resources and services in China between 2003 and 2030: a time-series study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xin-Yu; Gao, Ying; Li, Chang-Ping; Zheng, Rong-Xiu; Chen, Jie-Li; Zhao, Lin; Wang, You-Fa; Wang, Yao-Gang

    2017-06-24

    The two-child policy took effect in China on 1 January 2016, thus officially ending the one-child policy. The resultant growth in the population will create a considerable demand for public services such as paediatric healthcare, even while there are limited paediatric resources. We estimated the relationship between paediatric health resources and services and child mortality to determine the degree of the deficiency of such resources in China. Projecting the quantity of paediatric health resource allocation and service supply through 2030 will help provide data reference for future policy decision making. Time-series study. The People's Republic of China. Paediatric patients whose data were recorded between 2003 and 2012 from the National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China. Child mortality and paediatric health resources and services data were entered into a cubic polynomial regression model to project paediatric health resources and services to 2030. Child mortality decreased throughout the past decade. Furthermore, the number of paediatric beds, paediatricians and nurses increased between 2003 and 2012, although the proportions increased rather slowly. Both the number and proportion of paediatric outpatients and inpatients increased rapidly. The observed and model-predicted values matched well (adjusted R 2 =93.8% for paediatric beds; adjusted R 2 =96.6% for paediatric outpatient visits). Overall, the projection indicated that paediatric beds, paediatricians and nurses will reach 460 148, 233 884 and 184 059 by 2030, respectively. Regarding paediatric services, the number of paediatric outpatient visits and inpatients is expected to reach upwards of 449.95 million and 21.83 million by 2030, respectively. Despite implementation of the two-child policy, resource allocation in paediatrics has many deficiencies. Proper measures should be taken to actively respond to the demand for paediatric health services. © Article

  13. Detecting Land Cover Change by Trend and Seasonality of Remote Sensing Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, J. C.; Epiphanio, J. N.; Mello, M. P.

    2013-05-01

    Natural resource managers demand knowledge of information on the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and land cover change, and detection and characteristics change over time is an initial step for the understanding of the mechanism of change. The propose of this research is the use the approach BFAST (Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend) for detects trend and seasonal changes within Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series. BFAST integrates the decomposition of time series into trend, seasonal, and noise components with methods for detecting change within time series without the need to select a reference period, set a threshold, or define a change trajectory. BFAST iteratively estimates the time and number of changes, and characterizes change by its magnitude and direction. The general model is of the form Yt = Tt + St + et (t= 1,2,3,…, n) where Yt is the observed data at time t, Tt is the trend component, St is the seasonal component, and et is the remainder component. In this study was used MODIS NDVI time series datasets (MOD13Q1) over 11 years (2000 - 2010) on an intensive agricultural area in Mato Grosso - Brazil. At first it was applied a filter for noise reduction (4253H twice) over spectral curve of each MODIS pixel, and subsequently each time series was decomposed into seasonal, trend, and remainder components by BFAST. Were detected one abrupt change from a single pixel of forest and two abrupt changes on trend component to a pixel of the agricultural area. Figure 1 shows the number of phonological change with base in seasonal component for study area. This paper demonstrated the ability of the BFAST to detect long-term phenological change by analyzing time series while accounting for abrupt and gradual changes. The algorithm iteratively estimates the dates and number of changes occurring within seasonal and trend components, and characterizes changes by extracting the magnitude and direction of change. Changes occurring in the

  14. Trends in Timing of Pregnancy Awareness Among US Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branum, Amy M; Ahrens, Katherine A

    2017-04-01

    Objectives Early pregnancy detection is important for improving pregnancy outcomes as the first trimester is a critical window of fetal development; however, there has been no description of trends in timing of pregnancy awareness among US women. Methods We examined data from the 1995, 2002, 2006-2010 and 2011-2013 National Survey of Family Growth on self-reported timing of pregnancy awareness among women aged 15-44 years who reported at least one pregnancy in the 4 or 5 years prior to interview that did not result in induced abortion or adoption (n = 17, 406). We examined the associations between maternal characteristics and late pregnancy awareness (≥7 weeks' gestation) using adjusted prevalence ratios from logistic regression models. Gestational age at time of pregnancy awareness (continuous) was regressed over year of pregnancy conception (1990-2012) in a linear model. Results Among all pregnancies reported, gestational age at time of pregnancy awareness was 5.5 weeks (standard error = 0.04) and the prevalence of late pregnancy awareness was 23 % (standard error = 1 %). Late pregnancy awareness decreased with maternal age, was more prevalent among non-Hispanic black and Hispanic women compared to non-Hispanic white women, and for unintended pregnancies versus those that were intended (p pregnancy awareness did not change linearly over a 23-year time period after adjustment for maternal age at the time of conception (p pregnancy awareness did not change linearly during 1990-2012 among US women and occurs later among certain groups of women who are at higher risk of adverse birth outcomes.

  15. Extreme Drought-induced Trend Changes in MODIS EVI Time Series in Yunnan, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Kaicheng; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang

    2014-01-01

    Extreme climatic events triggered by global climate change are expected to increase significantly hence research into vegetation response is crucial to evaluate environmental risk. Yunnan province, locating in southwest China, experienced an extreme drought event (from autumn of 2009 to spring of 2010), with the lowest percentage rainfall anomaly and the longest non-rain days in the past 50 years. This study aimed to explore the characteristics and differences in the response to drought of four land cover types in Yunnan province, including forest, grassland, shrub, and cropland during the period 2001-2011. We used remote sensing data, MODIS-derived EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) to study the vegetation responses to this extreme drought event. The EVI time series were decomposed into trend, seasonal and remainder components using BFAST (Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend) which accounts for seasonality and enables the detection of trend changes within the time series. The preliminary results showed that: (1) BFAST proved to be capable of detecting drought-induced trend changes in EVI time series. (2) Changes in the trend component over time consisted of both gradual and abrupt changes. (3) Different spatial patterns were found for abrupt and gradual changes. (4) Cropland exhibited an abrupt change, due to its sensitivity to severe drought, while the forest seemed least affected by the extreme drought

  16. Century Scale Evaporation Trend: An Observational Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bounoui, Lahouari

    2012-01-01

    Several climate models with different complexity indicate that under increased CO2 forcing, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency between models and observations suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We have analyzed century-scale observed annual runoff and precipitation time-series over several United States Geological Survey hydrological units covering large forested regions of the Eastern United States not affected by irrigation. Both time-series exhibit a positive long-term trend; however, in contrast to model results, these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increases at roughly double the rate of runoff increase. We considered several hydrological processes to close the water budget and found that none of these processes acting alone could account for the total water excess generated by the observed difference between precipitation and runoff. We conclude that evaporation has increased over the period of observations and show that the increasing trend in precipitation minus runoff is correlated to observed increase in vegetation density based on the longest available global satellite record. The increase in vegetation density has important implications for climate; it slows but does not alleviate the projected warming associated with greenhouse gases emission.

  17. Time and age trends in morning and evening protein intakes of German children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roßbach, Sarah; Diederichs, Tanja; Herder, Christian; Buyken, Anette E; Alexy, Ute

    2018-01-01

    The present study describes time and age trends in morning and evening protein intakes and sources among German children and adolescents from 1985 to 2014. A total of 9757 three-day weighed dietary records of 1246 3- to 18-year-old participants of the Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed (DONALD) study were analysed using polynomial mixed-effects regression models. Morning protein intake increased over the study period by approximately 1 % of morning energy intake (linear trend P morning and evening protein intakes increased modestly between 1985 and 2014; these increases were, however, not accompanied by increases in traditional protein sources (i.e. meat or dairy products).

  18. Time trends of perfluorinated compounds from the sediment core of Tokyo Bay, Japan (1950s-2004)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zushi, Yasuyuki; Tamada, Masafumi [Graduate School of Environment and Information Sciences, Yokohama National University, 79-7 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya, Yokohama 240-8501 (Japan); Kanai, Yutaka [Geological Survey of Japan, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, 1-1-1 Higashi, Tsukuba 305-8567 (Japan); Masunaga, Shigeki, E-mail: masunaga@ynu.ac.j [Graduate School of Environment and Information Sciences, Yokohama National University, 79-7 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya, Yokohama 240-8501 (Japan)

    2010-03-15

    Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) were detected in sediment core samples collected in Tokyo Bay to reveal their time trends. The core sample deposited during 1950s-2004 was divided into two- to three-year intervals and the concentrations of 24 types of PFCs were determined. Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) decreased gradually from the early 1990s and its precursor decreased rapidly in the late 1990s, whereas perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) increased rapidly. The observed trends were regarded as a reflection of the shift from perfluorooctyl sulfonyl fluoride (PFOSF)-based products to telomer-based products after the phaseout of PFOSF-based products in 2001. The branched isomers of perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA) and perfluorotridecanoic acid (PFTrDA) were detected in the sample with its ratio of linear-isomer/branched-isomer concentrations decreasing. In this study, we revealed that the sediment core can serve as a tool for reconstructing the past pollution trend of PFCs and can provide interesting evidence concerning their environmental dynamics and time trend. - This study reports the time trends of the concentrations of 24 species of PFCs, including FTCA, FTUCA and FOSAA, in a sediment core of Tokyo Bay, Japan.

  19. Geographic Variations and Time Trends in Cancer Treatments in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Jason C; Chang, Sheng-Mao; Lu, Christine Y

    2017-08-02

    Targeted therapies have become important treatment options for cancer care in many countries. This study aimed to examine recent trends in utilization of antineoplastic drugs, particularly the use of targeted therapies for treatment of cancer, by geographic region in Taiwan (northern, midwestern, southern, and eastern regions and the outer islands). This was a retrospective observational study of antineoplastic agents using 2009-2012 quarterly claims data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. Yearly market shares by prescription volume and costs for targeted therapies among total antineoplastic agents by region were estimated. We used multivariate regression model and ANOVA to examine variations in utilization of targeted therapies between geographic regions and used ARIMA models to estimate longitudinal trends. Population-adjusted use and costs of antineoplastic drugs (including targeted therapies) were highest in the southern region of Taiwan and lowest in the outer islands. We found a 4-fold difference in use of antineoplastic drugs and a 49-fold difference in use of targeted therapies between regions if the outer islands were included. There were minimal differences in use of antineoplastic drugs between other regions with about a 2-fold difference in use of targeted therapies. Without considering the outer islands, the market share by prescription volume and costs of targeted therapies increased almost 2-fold (1.84-1.90) and 1.5-fold (1.26-1.61) respectively between 2009 and 2012. Furthermore, region was not significantly associated with use of antineoplastic agents or use of targeted therapies after adjusting for confounders. Region was associated with costs of antineoplastic agents but it was not associated with costs of targeted therapies after confounding adjustments. Use of antineoplastic drugs overall and use of targeted therapies for treatment of cancer varied somewhat between regions in Taiwan; use was notably low in the outer

  20. Time trends of period prevalence rates of patients with inhaled long-acting beta-2-agonists-containing prescriptions: a European comparative database study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marietta Rottenkolber

    Full Text Available Inhaled, long-acting beta-2-adrenoceptor agonists (LABA have well-established roles in asthma and/or COPD treatment. Drug utilisation patterns for LABA have been described, but few studies have directly compared LABA use in different countries. We aimed to compare the prevalence of LABA-containing prescriptions in five European countries using a standardised methodology.A common study protocol was applied to seven European healthcare record databases (Denmark, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands (2, and the UK (2 to calculate crude and age- and sex-standardised annual period prevalence rates (PPRs of LABA-containing prescriptions from 2002-2009. Annual PPRs were stratified by sex, age, and indication (asthma, COPD, asthma and COPD.From 2002-2009, age- and sex-standardised PPRs of patients with LABA-containing medications increased in all databases (58.2%-185.1%. Highest PPRs were found in men ≥ 80 years old and women 70-79 years old. Regarding the three indications, the highest age- and sex-standardised PPRs in all databases were found in patients with "asthma and COPD" but with large inter-country variation. In those with asthma or COPD, lower PPRs and smaller inter-country variations were found. For all three indications, PPRs for LABA-containing prescriptions increased with age.Using a standardised protocol that allowed direct inter-country comparisons, we found highest rates of LABA-containing prescriptions in elderly patients and distinct differences in the increased utilisation of LABA-containing prescriptions within the study period throughout the five European countries.

  1. Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    Whether children, especially girls, are entering and progressing through puberty earlier today than in the mid-1900s has been debated. Secular trend analysis, based on available data, is limited by data comparability among studies in different populations, in different periods of time, and using...

  2. Reference population for international comparisons and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery proportions in three countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morken, N.H.; Vogel, I.; Kallen, K.

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: International comparison and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery rates is complex. New techniques that could facilitate interpretation of such rates are needed. METHODS: We studied all live births and stillbirths (>or= 28 weeks gestation) registered in the medical birth...

  3. Prediction of time trends in recovery of cognitive function after mild head injury

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Kay; Ingebrigtsen, Tor; Wilsgaard, Tom

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate relations between predictors and outcomes, and especially to identify predictors influencing the time trend in recovery after mild traumatic brain injury. METHODS: We included 59 patients with mild head injury in a prospective study. They underwent comprehensive assessme...

  4. Lead poisoning in wild birds from southern Spain: a comparative study of wetland areas and species affected, and trends over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateo, R; Green, A J; Lefranc, H; Baos, R; Figuerola, J

    2007-01-01

    We studied lead (Pb) shot contamination in sediments from the Guadalquivir marshes and six other closed-basin lagoons in Southern Spain that are of major importance for threatened species of waterbirds. Shot densities were relatively low in Doñana, ranging from 0 to 25 shot/m(2) in the top 10 cm of sediments. The density at Medina lagoon (Ramsar site) was 148 shot/m(2), making it the most contaminated wetland known in Europe. Densities in the other five lagoons ranged from 9 to 59 shot/m(2). We studied the prevalence of ingested Pb shot in waterbirds from Doñana and found a lower prevalence in ducks than previously recorded in other Spanish wetlands. Lead shot were also found embedded in tissues of some waterbirds, proving that protected species such as the greater flamingo (Phoenicopterus ruber) and the glossy ibis (Plegadis falcinellus) are subjected to illegal hunting. The prevalence of embedded shot for geese was especially high (44% for trapped birds). Lead shot were detected in 2.8% of the pellets of the Spanish imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti) which usually preys on geese. We found that the prevalence of ingested Pb shot in geese and in Spanish imperial eagles has significantly decreased in recent years, possibly due to restrictions on hunting activity, efforts to remove shot from a sand dune used by geese to obtain grit, and to the high rainfall in Doñana during the last years that permitted waterfowl to stay more within the protected areas.

  5. Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

    2010-01-01

    as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...

  6. Econophysics — complex correlations and trend switchings in financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preis, T.

    2011-03-01

    This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.

  7. Detecting cognizable trends of gene expression in a time series ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. Study of temporal trajectory of gene expression is important. RNA sequencing is popular in genome-scale studies of tran- scription. Because of high expenses involved, many time-course RNA sequencing studies are challenged by inadequacy of sample sizes. This poses difficulties in conducting formal statistical ...

  8. Hydrologic Response to Climate Change: Missing Precipitation Data Matters for Computed Timing Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, B.

    2016-12-01

    This work demonstrates the derivation of climate timing statistics and applying them to determine resulting hydroclimate impacts. Long-term daily precipitation observations from 50 California stations were used to compute climate trends of precipitation event Intensity, event Duration and Pause between events. Each precipitation event trend was then applied as input to a PRMS hydrology model which showed hydrology changes to recharge, baseflow, streamflow, etc. An important concern was precipitation uncertainty induced by missing observation values and causing errors in quantification of precipitation trends. Many standard statistical techniques such as ARIMA and simple endogenous or even exogenous imputation were applied but failed to help resolve these uncertainties. What helped resolve these uncertainties was use of multiple imputation techniques. This involved fitting of Weibull probability distributions to multiple imputed values for the three precipitation trends.Permutation resampling techniques using Monte Carlo processing were then applied to the multiple imputation values to derive significance p-values for each trend. Significance at the 95% level for Intensity was found for 11 of the 50 stations, Duration from 16 of the 50, and Pause from 19, of which 12 were 99% significant. The significance weighted trends for California are Intensity -4.61% per decade, Duration +3.49% per decade, and Pause +3.58% per decade. Two California basins with PRMS hydrologic models were studied: Feather River in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and the central coast Soquel-Aptos. Each local trend was changed without changing the other trends or the total precipitation. Feather River Basin's critical supply to Lake Oroville and the State Water Project benefited from a total streamflow increase of 1.5%. The Soquel-Aptos Basin water supply was impacted by a total groundwater recharge decrease of -7.5% and streamflow decrease of -3.2%.

  9. HESS Opinions "More efforts and scientific rigour are needed to attribute trends in flood time series"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hundecha

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The question whether the magnitude and frequency of floods have changed due to climate change or other drivers of change is of high interest. The number of flood trend studies is rapidly rising. When changes are detected, many studies link the identified change to the underlying causes, i.e. they attribute the changes in flood behaviour to certain drivers of change. We propose a hypothesis testing framework for trend attribution which consists of essential ingredients for a sound attribution: evidence of consistency, evidence of inconsistency, and provision of confidence statement. Further, we evaluate the current state-of-the-art of flood trend attribution. We assess how selected recent studies approach the attribution problem, and to which extent their attribution statements seem defendable. In our opinion, the current state of flood trend attribution is poor. Attribution statements are mostly based on qualitative reasoning or even speculation. Typically, the focus of flood trend studies is the detection of change, i.e. the statistical analysis of time series, and attribution is regarded as an appendix: (1 flood time series are analysed by means of trend tests, (2 if a significant change is detected, a hypothesis on the cause of change is given, and (3 explanations or published studies are sought which support the hypothesis. We believe that we need a change in perspective and more scientific rigour: detection should be seen as an integral part of the more challenging attribution problem, and detection and attribution should be placed in a sound hypothesis testing framework.

  10. [Studying dysfunctional personality trends among sex offenders].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrot, M; Bénony, H; Chahraoui, K; Juif, C

    2014-10-01

    A review of the literature reveals a consensus on the high prevalence of personality disorders among sexual offenders. Studies show that there is no unique personality profile for sex offenders. In France, little research has been conducted on this population with standardized assessment tools. The objective of the present study is to identify the distribution of personality disorders among sexual offenders using a new French questionnaire, i.e. the TD12. In view of the literature, we postulate that this tool will identify the diversity of personality disorders observed by various authors, but with a higher proportion of cluster B disorders. This study was conducted among 56 men, including 28 sex offenders aged from 21 to 70 years old, and a control group of 28 men without psychiatric disorders. The sex offenders in this study are men convicted or charged with sex offenses of various kinds: exhibitionism, the recording, distribution and possession of pornography depicting minors, aggravated corruption of a minor, sexual assault of a minor, or rape of a minor. They were examined using an inventory of dysfunctional trends recently developed by Rolland and Pichot with the aim of assessing dysfunctional personality styles. The TD-12 questionnaire is composed of 140 items describing thoughts, feelings and behaviors. It is based on the diagnostic criteria of Axis II of DSM IV-TR and consists of twelve scales that match the personality disorders described in this diagnostic manual (ten officially recognized disorders and two additional disorders). From a categorical viewpoint, results indicate rigid dysfunctional trends with regard to avoidant personality disorder in sex offenders compared to the control group (Chi(2)=9.16; P=0.005). However, there were no significant differences between the two groups regarding the number of rigid dysfunctional trends. Potentially controllable dysfunctional personality trends are identified for the dependent personality (Chi(2

  11. Spatiotemporal Trends in the Timing and Volume of Snowfall in High Mountain Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Taylor; Bookhagen, Bodo

    2017-04-01

    High Mountain Asia, which encompasses the Himalaya, Karakoram, Pamir, Tien Shan, and the Tibetan Plateau, is the primary 'water tower' for much of Asia, serving more than a billion downstream users. Many catchments receive the majority of their yearly water budget in the form of snow - the vast majority of which is not monitored by sparse weather networks in the region. We leverage passive microwave data, flown on five sensors (SSMI, AMSR-E, SSMIS, AMSR2, and GPM, 1987-2016), to examine trends in the timing, volume, and spatial distribution of snowfall. While the total volume of water stored in snowpack has decreased over the study period, this large-scale water-storage loss hides small-scale and seasonal complexities. Some regions, such as the high Tien Shan and Kunlun Shan, have seen increased snow-water storage. Other regions, such as the Pamir and Karakorum, have seen increases in winter snow-water storage, coupled with decreases in summer snow-water storage, implying an intensification of winter storms alongside more rapid spring and summer snowmelt. We also note a non-linear elevation trend, where the mid-elevation zones show the largest negative snow-water storage trends, implying that these areas are the most strongly impacted by increasing temperatures in the region. Our study provides a first-order examination of snow-water trends in High Mountain Asia, and highlights that both small and large-scale snow trends must be considered for effective water planning.

  12. Gender Differences Time Trends for Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components among Tehranian Children and Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Barzin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims. To investigate the trend of metabolic syndrome and its components in Tehran children and adolescents during a median followup of 6.6 years. Methods. Data from 1999–2001 (phase I, 2002–2005 (phase II, and 2006–2008 (phase III of the Tehran, Lipid and Glucose Study were analyzed (=5439; age 6–18 years for the trend of metabolic syndrome (MetS and its components. General estimation equation (GEE models were used to analyze this correlated data. Results. The crude prevalence of MetS for boys at baseline was 13.2%, which increased to 16.4% in the third phase. In girls, the prevalence of Mets decreased from 11.8% at baseline to 6% during followup. The odd ratios (OR of obesity over the whole study period were raised in both sexes. The OR of abdominal obesity increased significantly in boys, but no change was observed in girls. No significant OR was observed in boys, while OR for MetS was shown to have a decreasing trend in girls during the followup. In the three time points, the ORs of MetS decreased significantly in girls but no significant difference was observed in boys. Conclusion. Inspite of increasing trend for obesity in both sexes, the trend of MetS decreased in girls and was relatively stable in boys, in Tehranian children, and adolescents.

  13. Fast or slow food? Explaining trends in food-related time in the Netherlands, 1975–2005

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandemakers, Jornt; Roeters, Anne|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304837865

    2015-01-01

    The current study analysed trends in the time spent preparing and consuming food and the frequency of outsourcing (going out for dinner and take-out) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2005. We investigated differences between trends on week and weekend days and for different socio-demographic groups.

  14. Decabromodiphenylether and hexabromocyclododecane in wild birds from the United Kingdom, Sweden and The Netherlands: Screening and time trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leslie, H.A.; Leonards, P.E.G.; Shore, J.F.; Walker, L.A.; Bersuder, P.R.C.; Morris, S.; Allchin, C.R.; de Boer, J.

    2011-01-01

    The brominated flame retardant decabromodiphenylether (DBDE) was analysed in wild birds to identify the most suitable species for monitoring time trends in DBDE contamination. This information was later used for the design of a 10-year trend study on DBDE in the European Union. DBDE was measured in

  15. Fast or slow food? Explaining trends in food-related time in the Netherlands, 1975-2005

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandemakers, J.J.; Roeters, A.

    2015-01-01

    The current study analysed trends in the time spent preparing and consuming food and the frequency of outsourcing (going out for dinner and take-out) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2005. We investigated differences between trends on week and weekend days and for different socio-demographic groups.

  16. Time trends and latitudinal differences in melanoma thickness distribution in Australia, 1990-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baade, Peter; Meng, Xingqiong; Youlden, Danny; Aitken, Joanne; Youl, Philippa

    2012-01-01

    This study investigated time trends and latitude differentials in the thickness distributions of invasive melanomas diagnosed in Australia between 1990 and 2006 using data from population-based cancer registries. Trends in incidence rates were calculated by sex, age group, thickness, year at diagnosis and latitude. For thin (4.00 mm) melanomas continued to increase over the entire period (males +2.6(+1.9,+3.4); females +1.6(+0.6,+2.6)). Recent reductions in the incidence of thin melanomas were observed among young (Australia. The observed trends in thin melanomas can most likely be attributed to the impact of early detection and skin awareness campaigns. However, these efforts have not impacted on the continued increase in the incidence of thick melanomas, although some increase may be due to earlier detection of metastasising melanomas. This highlights the need for continued vigilance in early detection processes. Copyright © 2011 UICC.

  17. Space-time trends in U.S. meteorological droughts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poulomi Ganguli

    2016-12-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The paper finds spatial coverage of extreme meteorological drought in the recent years (post-2010 exceeds that of the iconic droughts of the 1930s (the Dust Bowl era, and the 1950s. These results are in contrast with trends in spatial variance that does not exhibit any statistically significant trend. In addition, we find drought persistence remains relatively stationary over the last half century. The findings can inform drought monitoring and planning, and improve future drought resilience.

  18. Detecting cognizable trends of gene expression in a time series ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ular for genome-scale transcriptome profiling (Wang et al. 2009). Unlike microarrays, RNA-seq is probe-independent ... E-mail: pp1@nibmg.ac.in. Starmans et al. 2012; Zhang et al. 2013; Aijo et al. 2014; .... RNA-seq dataset derived from a gene expression profil- ing study carried out at three time points. This dataset has.

  19. Recent Trends in the Philosophy of Time: an Introduction to Time and Reality I

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emiliano Boccardi

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This essay is an introduction to Time and Reality I, the first part of a special issue dedicated to the philosophy of time. Here I outline a number of new trends in philosophical theorizing about time, detailing how the various contributions fit into the picture. I argue that there has been a potentially misleading tendency to separate the debate over the passage of time from the debate over the reality of tense. This has obscured a number of interesting philosophical questions. One of the aims of this volume is to bring these two issues together, where they belong. I argue that many contributions to it go in the right direction. The contributions to this volume also establish uncharted philosophical junctures between Metaphysics, Aesthetics, Morality, and the Philosophy of Mind.

  20. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis

    2016-01-01

    Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions. PMID:26987606

  1. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jae-Won; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Kim, Ho; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis; Mueller, Ivo

    2016-01-01

    This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

  2. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Won Park

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021, and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

  3. Trends in the utilization of dental outpatient services affected by the expansion of health care benefits in South Korea to include scaling: a 6-year interrupted time-series study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Hee-Jung; Lee, Jun Hyup; Park, Sujin; Kim, Tae-Il

    2018-02-01

    This study utilized a strong quasi-experimental design to test the hypothesis that the implementation of a policy to expand dental care services resulted in an increase in the usage of dental outpatient services. A total of 45,650,000 subjects with diagnoses of gingivitis or advanced periodontitis who received dental scaling were selected and examined, utilizing National Health Insurance claims data from July 2010 through November 2015. We performed a segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time-series to analyze the time-series trend in dental costs before and after the policy implementation, and assessed immediate changes in dental costs. After the policy change was implemented, a statistically significant 18% increase occurred in the observed total dental cost per patient, after adjustment for age, sex, and residence area. In addition, the dental costs of outpatient gingivitis treatment increased immediately by almost 47%, compared with a 15% increase in treatment costs for advanced periodontitis outpatients. This policy effect appears to be sustainable. The introduction of the new policy positively impacted the immediate and long-term outpatient utilization of dental scaling treatment in South Korea. While the policy was intended to entice patients to prevent periodontal disease, thus benefiting the insurance system, our results showed that the policy also increased treatment accessibility for potential periodontal disease patients and may improve long-term periodontal health in the South Korean population.

  4. A STUDY ABOUT EFFECT OF SOCIO ECONOMIC TRENDS ON STUDENTS

    OpenAIRE

    Dr.Paras Jain *, Mr.Soman Malaiya

    2016-01-01

    Students are influenced by current socio economic trends. Awareness for quality education, studies in English medium schools, girl’s education promotion, participation in activities, advance teaching pedagogy, learning by activities, expense on education, family support are current socio economic trends. These trends influence positively quality education concept.

  5. Is there a time trend in medical practice variations?: a review of the literature and an critical analysis of theoretical approaches.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenewegen, P.P.; Westert, G.P.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this study was to review the research evidence for a decreasing time trend in medical practice variation and to contribute to our theoretical understanding of trends in medical practice variations. We searched Pubmed for articles reporting on time trends in medical practice variations.

  6. E-Learning Trends and Hypes in Academic Teaching. Methodology and Findings of a Trend Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Helge; Heise, Linda; Heinz, Matthias; Moebius, Kathrin; Koehler, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    What comes next in the field of academic e-learning? Which e-learning trends will dominate the discourse at universities? Answering such questions is the basis for the adaptation of service strategies and IT-infrastructures within institutions of Higher Education. The present paper therefore introduces methodology and findings of a trend study in…

  7. Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    Whether children, especially girls, are entering and progressing through puberty earlier today than in the mid-1900s has been debated. Secular trend analysis, based on available data, is limited by data comparability among studies in different populations, in different periods of time, and using ...... to discriminate fat versus breast tissue, and (3) establishment of cohorts to examine pubertal markers longitudinally within the same individuals....

  8. Reducing preoperative fasting time: A trend based on evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Aguilar-Nascimento, José Eduardo; Dock-Nascimento, Diana Borges

    2010-03-27

    Preoperative fasting is mandatory before anesthesia to reduce the risk of aspiration. However, the prescribed 6-8 h of fasting is usually prolonged to 12-16 h for various reasons. Prolonged fasting triggers a metabolic response that precipitates gluconeogenesis and increases the organic response to trauma. Various randomized trials and meta-analyses have consistently shown that is safe to reduce the preoperative fasting time with a carbohydrate-rich drink up to 2 h before surgery. Benefits related to this shorter preoperative fasting include the reduction of postoperative gastrointestinal discomfort and insulin resistance. New formulas containing amino acids such as glutamine and other peptides are being studied and are promising candidates to be used to reduce preoperative fasting time.

  9. Case studies in intelligent computing achievements and trends

    CERN Document Server

    Issac, Biju

    2014-01-01

    Although the field of intelligent systems has grown rapidly in recent years, there has been a need for a book that supplies a timely and accessible understanding of this important technology. Filling this need, Case Studies in Intelligent Computing: Achievements and Trends provides an up-to-date introduction to intelligent systems.This edited book captures the state of the art in intelligent computing research through case studies that examine recent developments, developmental tools, programming, and approaches related to artificial intelligence (AI). The case studies illustrate successful ma

  10. Hybrid model for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and salendar variation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhartono; Rahayu, S. P.; Prastyo, D. D.; Wijayanti, D. G. P.; Juliyanto

    2017-09-01

    Most of the monthly time series data in economics and business in Indonesia and other Moslem countries not only contain trend and seasonal, but also affected by two types of calendar variation effects, i.e. the effect of the number of working days or trading and holiday effects. The purpose of this research is to develop a hybrid model or a combination of several forecasting models to predict time series that contain trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. This hybrid model is a combination of classical models (namely time series regression and ARIMA model) and/or modern methods (artificial intelligence method, i.e. Artificial Neural Networks). A simulation study was used to show that the proposed procedure for building the hybrid model could work well for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. Furthermore, the proposed hybrid model is applied for forecasting real data, i.e. monthly data about inflow and outflow of currency at Bank Indonesia. The results show that the hybrid model tend to provide more accurate forecasts than individual forecasting models. Moreover, this result is also in line with the third results of the M3 competition, i.e. the hybrid model on average provides a more accurate forecast than the individual model.

  11. Fall prevalence, time trend and its related risk factors among elderly people in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Hong; Ouyang, Peng

    2017-11-01

    To study the fall prevalence, time trends and related risk factors among elderly people in the Chinese mainland from 2011 to 2013. Our data were from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2011 and 2013. The population sample included people aged 60 years and over. Whether the person had experienced fall accident in the last two years was used to measure fall incidence. The time trend and age groups were investigated through the chi-square test. The related risk factors were examined based on the binary logistic regression model. In 2011, 19.64% (95% CI, 18.66%, 20.67%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents and in 2013, 19.28% (95% CI, 18.46%, 20.13%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents. However, no significant difference was seen in the fall prevalence between 2011 and 2013. The fall prevalence among elderly people aged 66-70 declined significantly while that among people aged over 80 showed an increasing time trend. The fall prevalence was affected significantly by factors including age (66-70), gender, marital status, self-rated health, quantity of chronic diseases, quantity of disability items, activities of daily living and physical functioning. It is revealed the fall prevalence showed no increment from 2011 to 2013 but at a high level. More efforts should be made to reduce the fall prevalence, and special attention should be paid to the elderly people aged over 80 and older. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Time-trend and variations in the proportion of second-eye cataract surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernal-Delgado Enrique

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite recommendations for greater use of second-eye cataract surgery and the bilateral progression of the disease, there is a substantial proportion of unmet need for this treatment. Few studies have explored the factors associated with second-eye cataract surgery utilisation. The objective of our study was to estimate the proportion of second-eye cataract surgery, evaluate its time-trend, and explore differences in utilisation by patients' gender, age, and region of residence. Methods All senile cataract surgeries performed between 1999 and 2002 in the public health system of Catalonia (Spain were obtained from the Minimum Data Set. The proportion of second-eye surgery from November 2000 to December 2002 was calculated. The time-trend of this proportion was characterised through linear regression models with the logarithmic transformation of time. Results The proportion of second-eye surgery was 30.0% and showed an increasing trend from 24.8% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 21.6; 26.1 in November 2000 to 31.8% (95% CI 31.4; 33.6 in December 2002. This proportion was 1.9% (95% CI 0.9; 2.9 higher in women (p Conclusion We predict greater utilization of second-eye surgery in patients aged 70 to 79 years and in women. A greater increase in the utilisation rates of second-eye surgery is expected in the regions with lower proportions and in older patients. The observed trend suggests that there will be a substantial proportion of unmet need for bilateral surgery.

  13. Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

    OpenAIRE

    Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

    2014-01-01

    In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods ...

  14. Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Jia Chaolong; Xu Weixiang; Wang Futian; Wang Hanning

    2012-01-01

    The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1) is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changin...

  15. Time trends of antidepressant drug prescriptions in men versus women in a geographically defined US population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Wenjun; Kremers, Hilal Maradit; Yawn, Barbara P.; Bobo, William V.; St Sauver, Jennifer L.; Ebbert, Jon O.; Rutten, Lila J.; Jacobson, Debra J.; Brue, Scott M.; Rocca, Walter A.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose To study time trends of antidepressant drug (AD) prescriptions in a geographically defined US population between 2005 and 2011 for men and women separately. Methods Using the Rochester Epidemiology Project medical records-linkage system, we identified all Olmsted County, MN residents who received AD outpatient prescriptions between 2005 and 2011 (seven years). We calculated the annual age-and sex-specific prevalence over seven years, and used generalized estimating equation models to test for time trends. Results The prevalence of subjects receiving at least one AD prescription was approximately two times higher in women than men consistently across the seven years of the study. The standardized annual prevalence increased from 10.8% in 2005 to 14.4% in 2011 overall, from 7.0% in 2005 to 9.9% in 2011 for men, and from 14.4% in 2005 to 18.6% in 2011 for women. The absolute percent increase was greater in women (4.2% vs. 2.9%; standardized); however, the relative percent increase was greater in men (41.4% vs. 29.2%; standardized). The relative percent increase was greater in the age group 65+ years for both men and women. Conclusions AD prescriptions are increasing over time, especially in the elderly. Women receive more AD prescriptions than men. However, the relative increase in AD prescriptions over time is greater in men than women. PMID:25113318

  16. Visualizing trends and clusters in ranked time-series data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gousie, Michael B.; Grady, John; Branagan, Melissa

    2013-12-01

    There are many systems that provide visualizations for time-oriented data. Of those, few provide the means of finding patterns in time-series data in which rankings are also important. Fewer still have the fine granularity necessary to visually follow individual data points through time. We propose the Ranking Timeline, a novel visualization method for modestly-sized multivariate data sets that include the top ten rankings over time. The system includes two main visualization components: a ranking over time and a cluster analysis. The ranking visualization, loosely based on line plots, allows the user to track individual data points so as to facilitate comparisons within a given time frame. Glyphs represent additional attributes within the framework of the overall system. The user has control over many aspects of the visualization, including viewing a subset of the data and/or focusing on a desired time frame. The cluster analysis tool shows the relative importance of individual items in conjunction with a visualization showing the connection(s) to other, similar items, while maintaining the aforementioned glyphs and user interaction. The user controls the clustering according to a similarity threshold. The system has been implemented as a Web application, and has been tested with data showing the top ten actors/actresses from 1929-2010. The experiments have revealed patterns in the data heretofore not explored.

  17. Time Series Analysis of Insar Data: Methods and Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osmanoglu, Batuhan; Sunar, Filiz; Wdowinski, Shimon; Cano-Cabral, Enrique

    2015-01-01

    Time series analysis of InSAR data has emerged as an important tool for monitoring and measuring the displacement of the Earth's surface. Changes in the Earth's surface can result from a wide range of phenomena such as earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, variations in ground water levels, and changes in wetland water levels. Time series analysis is applied to interferometric phase measurements, which wrap around when the observed motion is larger than one-half of the radar wavelength. Thus, the spatio-temporal ''unwrapping" of phase observations is necessary to obtain physically meaningful results. Several different algorithms have been developed for time series analysis of InSAR data to solve for this ambiguity. These algorithms may employ different models for time series analysis, but they all generate a first-order deformation rate, which can be compared to each other. However, there is no single algorithm that can provide optimal results in all cases. Since time series analyses of InSAR data are used in a variety of applications with different characteristics, each algorithm possesses inherently unique strengths and weaknesses. In this review article, following a brief overview of InSAR technology, we discuss several algorithms developed for time series analysis of InSAR data using an example set of results for measuring subsidence rates in Mexico City.

  18. Economic resources and remaining single: trends over time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dykstra, P.A.; Poortman, A.

    2010-01-01

    An influential hypothesis in family research is that having many economic resources decreases women’s and increases men’s rate of entering a union. A more recent hypothesis is that the strength of the association between economic resources and union formation has weakened over time, given decreasing

  19. Economic resources and remaining single : trends over time.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dykstra, Pearl A.; Poortman, Anne-Rigt

    2010-01-01

    An influential hypothesis in family research is that having many economic resources decreases women’s and increases men’s rate of entering a union. A more recent hypothesis is that the strength of the association between economic resources and union formation has weakened over time, given decreasing

  20. Reducing preoperative fasting time: A trend based on evidence

    OpenAIRE

    de Aguilar-Nascimento, José Eduardo; Dock-Nascimento, Diana Borges

    2010-01-01

    Preoperative fasting is mandatory before anesthesia to reduce the risk of aspiration. However, the prescribed 6-8 h of fasting is usually prolonged to 12-16 h for various reasons. Prolonged fasting triggers a metabolic response that precipitates gluconeogenesis and increases the organic response to trauma. Various randomized trials and meta-analyses have consistently shown that is safe to reduce the preoperative fasting time with a carbohydrate-rich drink up to 2 h before surgery. Benefits re...

  1. Morbidity pattern and time trends of filaria cases at a PHC in Dakshina Kannada District.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravikiran, E; Sajjan, B S; Vijaya, K; Kumar, S; Ramkrishna, V A; Dev, A V; Jegan, D P

    2005-01-01

    A study on morbity pattern and time trends of filaria cases was carried out in a PHC of Dakshin Kannada District during November 2000 to January 2001. The age and sex distribution of all 416 filaria cases recorded revealed that 235 (56.49%) were females and maximum concentration of 263 (63.21%) was in the age group of 16-45 years. The seasonal distribution revealed that rainy season accounted the highest number of cases 197 (47.35%). The prevalence was highest, 1.96/1000 population in the year 1993 and lowest, 0.71/1000 population in the year 1995.

  2. International Space Station (ISS) Anomalies Trending Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beil, Robert J.; Brady, Timothy K.; Foster, Delmar C.; Graber, Robert R.; Malin, Jane T.; Thornesbery, Carroll G.; Throop, David R.

    2015-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) set out to utilize data mining and trending techniques to review the anomaly history of the International Space Station (ISS) and provide tools for discipline experts not involved with the ISS Program to search anomaly data to aid in identification of areas that may warrant further investigation. Additionally, the assessment team aimed to develop an approach and skillset for integrating data sets, with the intent of providing an enriched data set for discipline experts to investigate that is easier to navigate, particularly in light of ISS aging and the plan to extend its life into the late 2020s. This report contains the outcome of the NESC Assessment.

  3. Time Trends in the Incidence and Mortality of Ovarian Cancer in Ireland, Northern Ireland, and Israel, 1994-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keinan-Boker, Lital; Silverman, Barbara G; Walsh, Paul M; Gavin, Anna T; Hayes, Catherine

    2017-10-01

    The aims of this study were to compare time trends in ovarian cancer incidence and mortality in populations with (1) similar genetics but different health care systems (Ireland and Northern Ireland [NI]) and (2)different genetics but similar health care system (Israeli Jews and Arabs) and to interpret the results. Age-standardized rates of ovarian cancer incidence and mortality for 1994-2013 in the 3 countries were obtained from national cancer registries and national statistics. Time trends in incidence, mortality, and incidence-to-mortality ratio were assessed by linear regression models applied to each country and between populations (Ireland-NI, Ireland-Israeli Jews, Israeli Jews-Arabs). Joinpoint analysis was used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC). Ovarian cancer incidence and mortality rates in 1994 were similar in the countries studied. Thereafter a reduction in incidence and mortality was observed in Ireland (incidence APC1994-2013 = -0.75%, P Trends in Israeli Arabs remained stable. Significant incidence trend differences between Ireland and Israeli Jews (P = 0.009) and between Israeli Jews and Arabs (P = 0.004) were observed. The only significant trend difference for mortality was between Israeli Jews and Arabs (P = 0.038). Incidence-to-mortality ratios showed stable trends in all groups except for Israeli Jews (APC1994-2013 = -1.0%, P trends in ovarian cancer incidence (decreasing) and mortality (decreasing) were similar in Ireland, NI, and Israeli Jews, following global trends, with a more prominent incidence decline in Israeli Jews. Decreasing mortality trends are driven by falling incidence in the countries studied rather than improved survival.

  4. A bibliometric study on SCRUM approach: patterns, trends and gaps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antônio Carlos Bonassa

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available After Agile Manifesto success in the software development arena, the literature on Agile methods, particularly SCRUM has increased. This study aims to present a systematic literature review of SCRUM literature, identifying the main evolution patterns, trends, and gaps. The research methods combine the bibliometric approach with content analysis. The results show that despite the increase interesting on agile methods, SCRUM utilization is decreasing and/or being replaced by another project management method and it face so strong barriers to expanding in other sectors than software. The main advantages of applying SCRUM pointed out in the review are increase customer satisfaction at the same time that reduced associated costs and development time.

  5. Trend Over Time for Cholecystectomy following the Introduction of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: There still exist some concerns about the desirability of laparoscopic surgery in lower‑middle income countries. We recently adopted laparoscopy for common general surgical procedures and observed many benefits. This study aims to describe the changing rate of cholecystectomy before and after the ...

  6. Trend Over Time for Cholecystectomy following the Introduction of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2018-03-05

    Mar 5, 2018 ... and acalculous cholecystitis. Patients with preoperative diagnosis of common bile duct stones were excluded from this study. There were six conversion to OC due to uncertain anatomy, excessive bleeding and extensively fibrosed gallbladder in two cases each. No mortality was recorded in this series.

  7. Osteoporosis-Related Mortality: Time-Trends and Predictive Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelly Ziadé

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Osteoporosis is one of the leading causes of handicap worldwide and a major contributor to the global burden of diseases. In particular, osteoporosis is associated with excess mortality. We reviewed the impact of osteoporosis on mortality in a population by defining three categories: mortality following hip fractures, mortality following other sites of fractures, and mortality associated with low bone mineral density (BMD. Hip fractures, as well as other fractures at major sites are all associated with excess mortality, except at the forearm site. This excess mortality is higher during the first 3-6 months after the fracture and then declines over time, but remains higher than the mortality of the normal population up to 22 years after the fracture. Low BMD is also associated with high mortality, with hazard ratios of around 1.3 for every decrease in 1 standard deviation of bone density at 5 years, independently of fractures, reflecting a more fragile population. Finally predictors of mortality were identified and categorised in demographic known factors (age and male gender and in factors reflecting a poor general health status such as the number of comorbidities, low mental status, or level of social dependence. Our results indicate that the management of a patient with osteoporosis should include a multivariate approach that could be based on predictive models in the future.

  8. Night-time lights: A global, long term look at links to socio-economic trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy Proville

    Full Text Available We use a parallelized spatial analytics platform to process the twenty-one year totality of the longest-running time series of night-time lights data-the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP dataset-surpassing the narrower scope of prior studies to assess changes in area lit of countries globally. Doing so allows a retrospective look at the global, long-term relationships between night-time lights and a series of socio-economic indicators. We find the strongest correlations with electricity consumption, CO2 emissions, and GDP, followed by population, CH4 emissions, N2O emissions, poverty (inverse and F-gas emissions. Relating area lit to electricity consumption shows that while a basic linear model provides a good statistical fit, regional and temporal trends are found to have a significant impact.

  9. Determinants and Time Trends for Ischaemic and Haemorrhagic Stroke in a Large Chinese Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yutao; Wang, Hao; Tao, Tao; Tian, Yingchun; Wang, Yutang; Chen, Yundai; Lip, Gregory Y. H.

    2016-01-01

    Background The clinical epidemiology of stroke has been widely investigated in Caucasian populations, but the changes over time in the proportion of ischaemic to haemorrhagic strokes is less clear, especially in the Chinese population. Aims Our objective was to study the determinants and time trends for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke, in relation to age, in a large Chinese population cohort. Methods Using a medical insurance database in the southwest of China from 2001 to 2012, time trends in age-adjusted ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke incidence and the contributing risk factors associated with age were investigated. Results Among 425,901 individuals without prior stroke (52.4% male, median age 54), the rate of ischaemic stroke (per 1000 patient-years) decreased between 2002–2007, then remained broadly similar between 2008–2012. The rate of haemorrhagic stroke showed a similar trend, being approximately 1.3–1.9 from 2008–2012. Compared to patients ageischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke incidences (rate, 95% confidential interval, CI) were higher in the elderly population (age ischaemic: 3.64, 3.33–4.00, vs 14.33, 14.01–14.60; haemorrhagic: 1.09, 1.00–1.10 vs 2.52,2.40–2.70, respectively, both pstroke rates between the elderly and the very elderly population. Ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke shared similar risk factors (age, hypertension, coronary artery disease (CAD), vascular disease, and diabetes mellitus) (all pstroke (all pdisease (2.24, 1.49–3.37) was an additional major risk factor for haemorrhagic stroke, together with CAD and diabetes mellitus (all pischaemic stroke compared to haemorrhagic stroke with ageing. CAD, vascular disease, diabetes mellitus, and hypertension were major contributors to the development of hemorrhagic stroke in the very elderly Chinese population. PMID:27685332

  10. Climate assessment and trend analysis in air temperature and precipitation time series in Taubaté (SP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Theophilo Folhes

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The main objectives of this paper are to present the temporal climatic characteristics of precipitation and air temperature in Taubaté (SP, in addition to the characterization of the rainy season. The time trend of the climatic elements were studied using the non parametric seasonal Mann-Kendall test. Statistically, no significant average changes in precipitation were detected although a relatively large natural year-to-year variability there exits. A short-term increasing trend from 1983 to 2005 have been observed in November precipitation, a decreasing trend in the amount of the April precipitation and a decreasing trend in the number of dry days per year. This study suggests that the onset of the Taubaté's rainy season occurs in mid-September and the end is in April.

  11. Behavior-over-time graphs: assessing perceived trends in healthy eating and active living environments and behaviors across 49 communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoehner, Christine M; Sabounchi, Nasim S; Brennan, Laura K; Hovmand, Peter; Kemner, Allison

    2015-01-01

    In the evaluation of the Healthy Kids, Healthy Communities initiative, investigators implemented Group Model Building (GMB) to promote systems thinking at the community level. As part of the GMB sessions held in each community partnership, participants created behavior-over-time graphs (BOTGs) to characterize their perceptions of changes over time related to policies, environments, collaborations, and social determinants in their community related to healthy eating, active living, and childhood obesity. To describe the process of coding BOTGs and their trends. Descriptive study of trends among BOTGs from 11 domains (eg, active living environments, social determinants of health, funding) and relevant categories and subcategories based on the graphed variables. In addition, BOTGs were distinguished by whether the variables were positively (eg, access to healthy foods) or negatively (eg, screen time) associated with health. The GMB sessions were held in 49 community partnerships across the United States. Participants in the GMB sessions (n = 590; n = 5-21 per session) included key individuals engaged in or impacted by the policy, system, or environmental changes occurring in the community. Thirty codes were developed to describe the direction (increasing, decreasing, stable) and shape (linear, reinforcing, balancing, or oscillating) of trends from 1660 graphs. The patterns of trends varied by domain. For example, among variables positively associated with health, the prevalence of reinforcing increasing trends was highest for active living and healthy eating environments (37.4% and 29.3%, respectively), partnership and community capacity (38.8%), and policies (30.2%). Examination of trends of specific variables suggested both convergence (eg, for cost of healthy foods) and divergence (eg, for farmers' markets) of trends across partnerships. Behavior-over-time graphs provide a unique data source for understanding community-level trends and, when combined with causal

  12. Social disparities in parental smoking and young children's exposure to secondhand smoke at home: a time-trend analysis of repeated cross-sectional data from the German KiGGS study between 2003-2006 and 2009-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuntz, Benjamin; Lampert, Thomas

    2016-06-08

    Children who are exposed to secondhand smoke (SHS) have an increased risk of a wide range of health problems and illnesses. Smoke-free legislation aims to improve indoor air quality and in this way protect the health of people who do not smoke. This paper examines trends in SHS exposure at home among children in Germany since the introduction of smoking bans in public places. Special focus is placed on the importance of the family of origin's socioeconomic status (SES) and on parental smoking behaviour. The analyses are based on two waves of the "German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents" (KiGGS)-one of which was conducted immediately before the introduction of central smoke-free legislation in the 2003-2006 period, the other approximately 6 years later from 2009 to 2012. A comparison is made between the answers given by the parents of children aged between 0 to 6 (KiGGS baseline study, n = 6680; KiGGS Wave 1, n = 4455). Domestic SHS exposure is covered in the parent interviews by asking whether anyone is allowed to smoke at home in the presence of their child. Parental smoking behaviour is determined separately for mothers and fathers. SES is determined on the basis of the parents' education, occupational status and income. The percentage of 0- to 6-year-old children exposed to SHS in the parental home fell from 23.9 to 6.6 % in the period from 2003-2006 to 2009-2012. At the same time, the percentage of children with at least one parent who smokes decreased from 49.8 to 41.8 %. While relative social inequalities in parental smoking behaviour have tended to increase over time, inequalities in domestic SHS exposure have persisted. Children whose parents smoke and children from low-SES families are still most likely to be exposed to tobacco smoke. In both study periods and after statistical adjustment for parental smoking behaviour, children with a low SES had a 6.6-fold higher risk for SHS exposure in the parental home

  13. Time trends in the prescription of statins for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in the United Kingdom: a cohort study using The Health Improvement Network primary care data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O’Keeffe AG

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Aidan G O’Keeffe,1 Irwin Nazareth,2 Irene Petersen2 1Department of Statistical Science, 2Department of Primary Care and Population Health, University College London, London, UK Background: Statins are widely prescribed for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Guidelines exist for statin prescriptions, but there is little recent analysis concerning prescription trends over time and how these vary with respect to demographic variables.Methods and results: Using The Health Improvement Network primary care database, statin therapy initiation and statin prescription prevalence rates were calculated using data from 7,027,711 individuals across the UK for the years 1995 to 2013, overall and stratified by sex, age group, and socioeconomic deprivation level (Townsend score. Statin therapy initiation rates rose sharply from 1995 (0.51 per 1,000 person-years up to 2006 (19.83 per 1,000 person-years and thereafter declined (10.76 per 1,000 person-years in 2013. Males had higher initiation rates than females and individuals aged 60–85 years had higher initiation rates than younger or more elderly age groups. Initiation rates were slightly higher as social deprivation level increased, after accounting for age and sex. Prescription prevalence increased sharply from 1995 (2.36 per 1,000 person-years to 2013 (128.03 per 1,000 person-years with males generally having a higher prevalence rate, over time, than females. Prevalence rates over time were generally higher for older age groups but were similar with respect to social deprivation level.Conclusion: The uptake of statins within UK primary care has increased greatly over time with statins being more commonly prescribed to older patients in general and, in recent years, males appear to have been prescribed statins at higher rates than females. After accounting for age and sex, the statin therapy initiation rate increases with the level of social deprivation. Keywords: cardiovascular disease

  14. Time Trends in Food Allergy Diagnoses, Epinephrine Orders, and Epinephrine Administrations in New York City Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feuille, Elizabeth; Lawrence, Cheryl; Volel, Caroline; Sicherer, Scott H; Wang, Julie

    2017-11-01

    To assess time trends in food allergy diagnoses, epinephrine autoinjector (EAI) prescriptions, and EAI administrations in the school setting. In this retrospective study, deidentified student data from the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, which oversees >1 million students in 1800 schools, were provided to investigators. Data from school years 2007-2008 to 2012-2013 pertaining to diagnoses of food allergy, student-specific EAI orders, and EAI administrations among students in New York City were analyzed for trends over time, via the use of ORs and χ 2 calculation. The prevalences of providing physician documentation of food allergy and EAI orders, and the incidence of EAI administrations, all increased approximately 3-fold over the years of the study. Of 337 EAI administrations, more than one-half used stock EAI, and three-quarters were for students without a student-specific order preceding the incident. The rise in food allergy diagnoses, EAI prescriptions, and EAI administrations suggest either a true increase in allergic disease, increased reporting, and/or, in the case of EAI administrations, increased appropriate use. As the majority of EAI administrations used stock supply, availability of nonstudent-specific stock EAI appears vital to management of anaphylaxis in schools. Collaboration between physicians, families, and schools is needed to identify students at risk for severe allergic reactions and to ensure preparedness and availability of EAI in the event of anaphylaxis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Time-resolved studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    When new or more powerful probes become available that offer both shorter data-collection times and the opportunity to apply innovative approaches to established techniques, it is natural that investigators consider the feasibility of exploring the kinetics of time-evolving systems. This stimulating area of research not only can lead to insights into the metastable or excited states that a system may populate on its way to a ground state, but can also lead to a better understanding of that final state. Synchrotron radiation, with its unique properties, offers just such a tool to extend X-ray measurements from the static to the time-resolved regime. The most straight-forward application of synchrotron radiation to the study of transient phenomena is directly through the possibility of decreased data-collection times via the enormous increase in flux over that of a laboratory X-ray system. Even further increases in intensity can be obtained through the use of novel X-ray optical devices. Widebandpass monochromators, e.g., that utilize the continuous spectral distribution of synchrotron radiation, can increase flux on the sample several orders of magnitude over conventional X-ray optical systems thereby allowing a further shortening of the data-collection time. Another approach that uses the continuous spectral nature of synchrotron radiation to decrease data-collection times is the open-quote parallel data collectionclose quotes method. Using this technique, intensities as a function of X-ray energy are recorded simultaneously for all energies rather than sequentially recording data at each energy, allowing for a dramatic decrease in the data-collection time

  16. Time trends in breast cancer and menopause hormone therapy use in New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, R; Fenton, A

    2016-01-01

    The publication of preliminary findings from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) Study in 2002 suggested an increased risk of breast cancer among users of menopause hormone therapy (MHT). This resulted world-wide in a rapid and significant decline in the use of hormone therapy. It was later claimed that breast cancer incidence rates had fallen as a result of lower rates of hormone therapy use. Our aim was to investigate whether there was an association between changes in the use of hormone therapy and rates of breast cancer diagnosis in New Zealand subsequent to the publication of the WHI. Validated prescription usage data along with breast cancer screening and cancer registration data were accessed. Time trends extending for 8 years after the publication of the WHI were assessed. The use of hormone therapy for managing menopausal symptoms fell by about 70% following the controversy about its safety. Breast cancer registration rates among women aged 50-59 years had started to fall in advance of this change in prescribing. Changes in other age groups appear to coincide with changes in the screening eligibility for the national breast screening program rather than use of hormone therapy. The time trend analysis does not support an association between changes in hormone therapy use and the incidence rate of breast cancer.

  17. Time trends of chest pain symptoms and health related quality of life in coronary artery disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henriksson Peter

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is at present a lack of knowledge of time trends in health related quality of life (HRQL in common patients with coronary artery disease (CAD treated in ordinary care. The objective of this study is to assess and compare time trends of health related quality of life (HRQL and chest pain in patients with coronary artery disease. Methods 253 consecutive CAD patients in Stockholm County, Sweden – 197 males/56 females; 60 ± 8 years – were followed during two years. Perceived chest pain symptoms and three global assessments of HRQL were assessed at baseline, after one and after two years. EuroQol-5 dimension (EQ-5D with a predefined focus on function and symptoms; the broader tapping global estimates of HRQL; EuroQol VAS (EQ-VAS and Cardiac Health Profile (CHP were used. Chest pain was ranked according to Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS. Change in HRQL was analysed by a repeated measurements ANOVA and chest pain symptoms were analysed by Friedman non-parametric ANOVA. Results Perceived chest pain decreased during the two years (p Conclusion HRQL did not increase despite a reduction in the severity of chest pain during two years. This implies that the major part of HRQL in these consecutive ordinary patients with CAD is unresponsive to change in chest pain symptoms.

  18. Time-trend of melanoma screening practice by primary care physicians: a meta-regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valachis, Antonis; Mauri, Davide; Karampoiki, Vassiliki; Polyzos, Nikolaos P; Cortinovis, Ivan; Koukourakis, Georgios; Zacharias, Georgios; Xilomenos, Apostolos; Tsappi, Maria; Casazza, Giovanni

    2009-01-01

    To assess whether the proportion of primary care physicians implementing full body skin examination (FBSE) to screen for melanoma changed over time. Meta-regression analyses of available data. MEDLINE, ISI, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Fifteen studies surveying 10,336 physicians were included in the analyses. Overall, 15%-82% of them reported to perform FBSE to screen for melanoma. The proportion of physicians using FBSE screening tended to decrease by 1.72% per year (P =0.086). Corresponding annual changes in European, North American, and Australian settings were -0.68% (P =0.494), -2.02% (P =0.044), and +2.59% (P =0.010), respectively. Changes were not influenced by national guide-lines. Considering the increasing incidence of melanoma and other skin malignancies, as well as their relative potential consequences, the FBSE implementation time-trend we retrieved should be considered a worrisome phenomenon.

  19. Time series analysis of onchocerciasis data from Mexico: a trend towards elimination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lara-Ramírez, Edgar E; Rodríguez-Pérez, Mario A; Pérez-Rodríguez, Miguel A; Adeleke, Monsuru A; Orozco-Algarra, María E; Arrendondo-Jiménez, Juan I; Guo, Xianwu

    2013-01-01

    In Latin America, there are 13 geographically isolated endemic foci distributed among Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil and Ecuador. The communities of the three endemic foci found within Mexico have been receiving ivermectin treatment since 1989. In this study, we predicted the trend of occurrence of cases in Mexico by applying time series analysis to monthly onchocerciasis data reported by the Mexican Secretariat of Health between 1988 and 2011 using the software R. A total of 15,584 cases were reported in Mexico from 1988 to 2011. The data of onchocerciasis cases are mainly from the main endemic foci of Chiapas and Oaxaca. The last case in Oaxaca was reported in 1998, but new cases were reported in the Chiapas foci up to 2011. Time series analysis performed for the foci in Mexico showed a decreasing trend of the disease over time. The best-fitted models with the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) were Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, which were used to predict the tendency of onchocerciasis cases for two years ahead. According to the ARIMA models predictions, the cases in very low number (below 1) are expected for the disease between 2012 and 2013 in Chiapas, the last endemic region in Mexico. The endemic regions of Mexico evolved from high onchocerciasis-endemic states to the interruption of transmission due to the strategies followed by the MSH, based on treatment with ivermectin. The extremely low level of expected cases as predicted by ARIMA models for the next two years suggest that the onchocerciasis is being eliminated in Mexico. To our knowledge, it is the first study utilizing time series for predicting case dynamics of onchocerciasis, which could be used as a benchmark during monitoring and post-treatment surveillance.

  20. Time trends, improvements and national auditing of rectal cancer management over an 18-year period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodeda, K; Johansson, R; Zar, N; Birgisson, H; Dahlberg, M; Skullman, S; Lindmark, G; Glimelius, B; Påhlman, L; Martling, A

    2015-09-01

    The main aims were to explore time trends in the management and outcome of patients with rectal cancer in a national cohort and to evaluate the possible impact of national auditing on overall outcomes. A secondary aim was to provide population-based data for appraisal of external validity in selected patient series. Data from the Swedish ColoRectal Cancer Registry with virtually complete national coverage were utilized in this cohort study on 29 925 patients with rectal cancer diagnosed between 1995 and 2012. Of eligible patients, nine were excluded. During the study period, overall, relative and disease-free survival increased. Postoperative mortality after 30 and 90 days decreased to 1.7% and 2.9%. The 5-year local recurrence rate dropped to 5.0%. Resection margins improved, as did peri-operative blood loss despite more multivisceral resections being performed. Fewer patients underwent palliative resection and the proportion of non-operated patients increased. The proportions of temporary and permanent stoma formation increased. Preoperative radiotherapy and chemoradiotherapy became more common as did multidisciplinary team conferences. Variability in rectal cancer management between healthcare regions diminished over time when new aspects of patient care were audited. There have been substantial changes over time in the management of patients with rectal cancer, reflected in improved outcome. Much indirect evidence indicates that auditing matters, but without a control group it is not possible to draw firm conclusions regarding the possible impact of a quality control registry on faster shifts in time trends, decreased variability and improvements. Registry data were made available for reference. Colorectal Disease © 2015 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

  1. Publication trends of study protocols in rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jesus, Tiago S; Colquhoun, Heather L

    2017-09-04

    Growing evidence points for the need to publish study protocols in the health field. To observe whether the growing interest in publishing study protocols in the broader health field has been translated into increased publications of rehabilitation study protocols. Observational study using publication data and its indexation in PubMed. Not applicable. Not applicable. PubMed was searched with appropriate combinations of Medical Subject Headings up to December 2014. The effective presence of study protocols was manually screened. Regression models analyzed the yearly growth of publications. Two-sample Z-tests analyzed whether the proportion of Systematic Reviews (SRs) and Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) among study protocols differed from that of the same designs for the broader rehabilitation research. Up to December 2014, 746 publications of rehabilitation study protocols were identified, with an exponential growth since 2005 (r2=0.981; p<0.001). RCT protocols were the most common among rehabilitation study protocols (83%), while RCTs were significantly more prevalent among study protocols than among the broader rehabilitation research (83% vs. 35.8%; p<0.001). For SRs, the picture was reversed: significantly less common among study protocols (2.8% vs. 9.3%; p<0.001). Funding was more often reported by rehabilitation study protocols than the broader rehabilitation research (90% vs. 53.1%; p<0.001). Rehabilitation journals published a significantly lower share of rehabilitation study protocols than they did for the broader rehabilitation research (1.8% vs.16.7%; p<0.001). Identifying the reasons for these discrepancies and reverting unwarranted disparities (e.g. low rate of publication for rehabilitation SR protocols) are likely new avenues for rehabilitation research and its publication. SRs, particularly those aggregating RCT results, are considered the best standard of evidence to guide rehabilitation clinical practice; however, that standard can be improved

  2. Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

    2014-05-01

    In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods that can analyze multidimensional time series. One important attribute of this method is that it is not dependent on any statistical assumption and does not need local stationarity in the time series. In this paper, it is shown how the FEM-clustering method can be used to locate change points in the trend of temperature time series from in situ observations. This method is applied to the temperature time series of North Carolina (NC) and the results represent region-specific climate variability despite higher frequency harmonics in climatic time series. Next, we investigated the relationship between the climatic indices with the clusters/trends detected based on this clustering method. It appears that the natural variability of climate change in NC during 1950-2009 can be explained mostly by AMO and solar activity.

  3. Hormonal contraception and postmenopausal hormone therapy in Spain: time trends and patterns of use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costas, Laura; Sequera, Víctor-Guillermo; Quesada, Paloma; Altzibar, Jone M; Lope, Virginia; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz; Benavente, Yolanda; Martín, Vicente; Casabonne, Delphine; Robles, Claudia; Llorca, Javier; Moreno-Iribas, Conchi; Fernandez-Tardón, Guillermo; Moreno, Victor; Caballero-Granado, Francisco Javier; Salas, Dolores; Jiménez-Moleón, José Juan; Marcos-Gragera, Rafael; Chirlaque, María-Dolores; Amiano, Pilar; Molina, Antonio Jose; Castaño-Vinyals, Gemma; Aragonés, Nuria; Kogevinas, Manolis; Pollán, Marina; de Sanjosé, Silvia

    2015-10-01

    This study aims to describe time trends in and patterns of use of hormonal contraception and postmenopausal hormone therapy and to identify factors associated with their use among Spanish women. We performed a cross-sectional analysis using data from 1,954 population controls (aged 24-85 y) in 12 provinces of Spain who were enrolled in the Multi Case-Control Spain study (2007-2013). Data were collected from a questionnaire conducted face-to-face by trained personnel. We collected information on sociodemographic factors, lifestyle, sleep patterns, reproductive history, and occupational history. Overall, 48.5% of Spanish women reported ever use of hormonal contraception, and 9.8% of women in the postmenopausal group reported use of postmenopausal hormone therapy. Younger cohorts used hormonal contraception for a longer period, whereas postmenopausal hormone therapy use dramatically dropped in the 2000s. Women with higher education levels (including education of partners) and smoking history were the most probable users of hormonal contraception, whereas inverse associations were observed among housewives, obese women, and nulliparous women. Postmenopausal hormone therapy use was associated with a surgical or therapeutic cause of menopause and with occupational history of rotating shifts. In this Spanish population, several demographic, lifestyle, occupational, and reproductive factors are associated with use of hormonal compounds. Characterizing hormonal users and monitoring trends in the use of these hormonal compounds are essential from a public health perspective.

  4. Length of Growing Period over Africa: Variability and Trends from 30 Years of NDVI Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Y. Said

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The spatial distribution of crops and farming systems in Africa is determined by the duration of the period during which crop and livestock water requirements are met. The length of growing period (LGP is normally assessed from weather station data—scarce in large parts of Africa—or coarse-resolution rainfall estimates derived from weather satellites. In this study, we analyzed LGP and its variability based on the 1981–2011 GIMMS NDVI3g dataset. We applied a variable threshold method in combination with a searching algorithm to determine start- and end-of-season. We obtained reliable LGP estimates for arid, semi-arid and sub-humid climates that are consistent in space and time. This approach effectively mapped bimodality for clearly separated wet seasons in the Horn of Africa. Due to cloud contamination, the identified bimodality along the Guinea coast was judged to be less certain. High LGP variability is dominant in arid and semi-arid areas, and is indicative of crop failure risk. Significant negative trends in LGP were found for the northern part of the Sahel, for parts of Tanzania and northern Mozambique, and for the short rains of eastern Kenya. Positive trends occurred across western Africa, in southern Africa, and in eastern Kenya for the long rains. Our LGP analysis provides useful information for the mapping of farming systems, and to study the effects of climate variability and other drivers of change on vegetation and crop suitability.

  5. Geographical variations in sex ratio trends over time in multiple sclerosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Trojano

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A female/male (F/M ratio increase over time in multiple sclerosis (MS patients was demonstrated in many countries around the world. So far, a direct comparison of sex ratio time-trends among MS populations from different geographical areas was not carried out. OBJECTIVE: In this paper we assessed and compared sex ratio trends, over a 60-year span, in MS populations belonging to different latitudinal areas. METHODS: Data of a cohort of 15,996 (F = 11,290; M = 4,706 definite MS with birth years ranging from 1930 to 1989 were extracted from the international MSBase registry and the New Zealand MS database. Gender ratios were calculated by six decades based on year of birth and were adjusted for the F/M born-alive ratio derived from the respective national registries of births. RESULTS: Adjusted sex ratios showed a significant increase from the first to the last decade in the whole MS sample (from 2.35 to 2.73; p = 0.03 and in the subgroups belonging to the areas between 83° N and 45° N (from 1.93 to 4.55; p<0.0001 and between 45° N to 35° N (from 1.46 to 2.30; p<0.05 latitude, while a sex ratio stability over time was found in the subgroup from areas between 12° S and 55° S latitude. The sex ratio increase mainly affected relapsing-remitting (RR MS. CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm a general sex ratio increase over time in RRMS and also demonstrate a latitudinal gradient of this increase. These findings add useful information for planning case-control studies aimed to explore sex-related factors responsible for MS development.

  6. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in the southern Tianshan Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yan-Jun; Shen, Yanjun; Fink, Manfred; Kralisch, Sven; Chen, Yaning; Brenning, Alexander

    2018-02-01

    Streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing of mountain rivers are susceptible to climate change. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in four mountain basins in the southern Tianshan were analyzed in this study. Streamflow trends were detected by Mann-Kendall tests and changes in snowmelt runoff timing were analyzed based on the winter/spring snowmelt runoff center time (WSCT). Pearson's correlation coefficient was further calculated to analyze the relationships between climate variables, streamflow and WSCT. Annual streamflow increased significantly in past decades in the southern Tianshan, especially in spring and winter months. However, the relations between streamflow and temperature/precipitation depend on the different streamflow generation processes. Annual precipitation plays a vital role in controlling recharge in the Toxkon basin, while the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are governed by both precipitation and temperature. Seasonally, temperature has a strong effect on streamflow in autumn and winter, while summer streamflow appears more sensitive to changes in precipitation. However, temperature is the dominant factor for streamflow in the glacierized Kunmalik basin at annual and seasonal scales. An uptrend in streamflow begins in the 1990s at both annual and seasonal scales, which is generally consistent with temperature and precipitation fluctuations. Average WSCT dates in the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are earlier than in the Toxkon and Kunmalik basins, and shifted towards earlier dates since the mid-1980s in all the basins. It is plausible that WSCT dates are more sensitive to warmer temperature in spring period compared to precipitation, except for the Huangshuigou basin. Taken together, these findings are useful for applications in flood risk regulation, future hydropower projects and integrated water resources management.

  7. Time trends in births and cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horner-Johnson, Willi; Biel, Frances M; Darney, Blair G; Caughey, Aaron B

    2017-07-01

    Although it is likely that childbearing among women with disabilities is increasing, no empirical data have been published on changes over time in the numbers of women with disabilities giving birth. Further, while it is known that women with disabilities are at increased risk of cesarean delivery, temporal trends in cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities have not been examined. To assess time trends in births by any mode and in primary cesarean deliveries among women with physical, sensory, or intellectual/developmental disabilities. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked vital records and hospital discharge data from all deliveries in California, 2000-2010 (n = 4,605,061). We identified women with potential disabilities using ICD-9 codes. We used descriptive statistics and visualizations to examine time patterns. Logistic regression analyses assessed the association between disability and primary cesarean delivery, stratified by year. Among all women giving birth, the proportion with a disability increased from 0.27% in 2000 to 0.80% in 2010. Women with disabilities had significantly elevated odds of primary cesarean delivery in each year, but the magnitude of the odds ratio decreased over time from 2.60 (95% CI = 2.25 = 2.99) in 2000 to 1.66 (95% CI = 1.51-1.81) in 2010. Adequate clinician training is needed to address the perinatal care needs of the increasing numbers of women with disabilities giving birth. Continued efforts to understand cesarean delivery patterns and reasons for cesarean deliveries may help guide further reductions in proportions of cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities relative to women without disabilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Long-term and recent time trends in the prevalence of obesity among Dutch men and women

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visscher, T L S; Kromhout, D.; Seidell, J C

    OBJECTIVE: To describe long-term and recent time trends in the prevalence of obesity by age and educational level. DESIGN: :Repeated cross-sectional population based monitoring studies. SETTING: Consultation Bureau Heart Project 1976-1980, Monitoring Project on Cardiovascular Diseases 1987-1991 and

  9. Trend analysis of time-series data: A novel method for untargeted metabolite discovery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, S.; Janssen, H.-G.; Vivó-Truyols, G.

    2010-01-01

    A new strategy for biomarker discovery is presented that uses time-series metabolomics data. Data sets from samples analysed at different time points after an intervention are searched for compounds that show a meaningful trend following the intervention. Obviously, this requires new data-analytical

  10. Body-size trends of the extinct giant shark Carcharocles megalodon: a deep-time perspective on marine apex predators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimiento, Catalina; Balk, Meghan A

    2015-06-01

    The extinct shark Carcharocles megalodon is one of the largest marine apex predators ever to exist. Nonetheless, little is known about its body-size variations through time and space. Here, we studied the body-size trends of C. megalodon through its temporal and geographic range to better understand its ecology and evolution. Given that this species was the last of the megatooth lineage, a group of species that shows a purported size increase through time, we hypothesized that C. megalodon also displayed this trend, increasing in size over time and reaching its largest size prior to extinction. We found that C. megalodon body-size distribution was left-skewed (suggesting a long-term selective pressure favoring larger individuals), and presented significant geographic variation (possibly as a result of the heterogeneous ecological constraints of this cosmopolitan species) over geologic time. Finally, we found that stasis was the general mode of size evolution of C. megalodon (i.e., no net changes over time), contrasting with the trends of the megatooth lineage and our hypothesis. Given that C. megalodon is a relatively long-lived species with a widely distributed fossil record, we further used this study system to provide a deep-time perspective to the understanding of the body-size trends of marine apex predators. For instance, our results suggest that (1) a selective pressure in predatory sharks for consuming a broader range of prey may favor larger individuals and produce left-skewed distributions on a geologic time scale; (2) body-size variations in cosmopolitan apex marine predators may depend on their interactions with geographically discrete communities; and (3) the inherent characteristics of shark species can produce stable sizes over geologic time, regardless of the size trends of their lineages.

  11. Time trends in mental well-being: the polarisation of young people's psychological distress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Andy; Kelly, Yvonne; Sacker, Amanda

    2017-09-01

    Previous research on time trends of young people's mental health in Britain has produced conflicting findings: evidence for deterioration in mental health during the late 20th century followed by stability and slight improvement during the early 21st century is contrasted with evidence showing continued deterioration. The present study adds to the evidence base by assessing time trends in means, variances, and both low and high psychological distress scores covering a similar period. GHQ-12 (Likert scale) was regressed on time (adjusting for age) using a sample of young people aged 16-24 between 1991 and 2008 from the British Household Panel Study. Change in variance was assessed using Levene's homogeneity of variance test across 9-year intervals. Polarisation was assessed by a comparison of the prevalence of scores ≥1 standard deviation and ≥1.5 standard deviations above and below the pooled mean. There was a small but significant increase in mean GHQ-12 among young women (b 0.048; 95% CI 0.016, 0.080) only. Variance increased significantly (p < 0.05) across 9-year intervals in seven out of nine comparisons for women and in six out of nine comparisons for men. There were significant increases in low (OR: 1.19; 95% CI 1.05, 1.35), high (OR: 1.27; 95% CI 1.13, 1.42), and very high scores (OR: 1.42; 95% CI 1.23, 1.64) for young women, and increases in low (OR: 1.39; 95% CI 1.21, 1.59) and very low (OR: 1.53; 95% CI 1.21, 1.92) scores for young men. The evidence suggests a polarisation of the psychological distress of young women in Britain between 1991 and 2008.

  12. Time trend of lack of access to health services in Brazil, 1998-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, Bruno Pereira; Flores, Thaynã Ramos; Garcia, Leila Posenato; Chiavegatto, Alexandre Dias Porto; Thumé, Elaine; Facchini, Luiz Augusto

    2016-01-01

    to analyze the time trend on the demand and lack of access to public health services in Brazil. this is a panel of cross-sectional studies with data of the National Household Sample Survey (1998, 2003, 2008) and the National Health Survey (2013); the prevalence of demand and lack of access within the fifteen days prior to the survey was estimated; Poisson regression was used for trend analysis. the demand for health services increased from 13.0% (95%CI 12.3;13.7), in 1998, to 15.0% (95%CI 14.5;15.4), in 2013; the lack of access remained stable, being of 3.7% (95%CI 3.2;4.2) in 1998 and 4.5% (95%CI 4.0;5.0) in 2013. the increase in demand for health services and the stability in the lack of access indicate improvements in the Brazilian public health system performance; additional efforts are required to ensure universal access to public health services in Brazil.

  13. Prevalence of dental caries and influencing factors, time trends over a 30-year period in an adult population. Epidemiological studies between 1983 and 2013 in the county of Dalarna, Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edman, Kristina; Öhrn, Kerstin; Nordström, Birgitta; Holmlund, Anders

    2016-07-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of dental caries in an adult population using four different cross-sectional studies over a 30-year period and to assess its possible associations with socio-economic and socio-behavioural factors. Four cross-sectional epidemiological studies were performed in the county of Dalarna, Sweden, in 1983, 2003, 2008 and 2013. Random samples of 1012-2244 individuals, aged 20-85 years, who answered a questionnaire about socio-economic and socio-behavioural factors, were radiographically and clinically examined. The proportion of individuals with at least one decayed surface (DS) was 58% in 1983 and significantly lower, 34% in 2008 (p dental visits, limited financial resources for dental care, smoking, education below university, male gender, daily medication and single living were positively and statistically associated with manifest caries. The declining trend in the prevalence of manifest caries seems to be broken. In the oldest age group mean number of DS was higher in 2013 compared with 2008, indicating a possible beginning of an increase. This needs special attention as this group increases in the population, retaining natural teeth high up in age. Manifest caries was found to be associated with socio-economic and socio-behavioural factors.

  14. The road to success. Long-term prognosis for persons living with HIV in Denmark - time trends and risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lohse, Nicolai

    2016-01-01

    compared temporal trends in quality and quantity of ART introduction in Den-mark and Greenland. Despite similar levels of health worker education and economic resources, ART implementation and mortality decline in Greenland lacked several years behind Denmark. The study reminded us that although economy...... may be a prerequisite for implementing an effective HIV care system, it is certainly not all it takes. The nationwide nature of the Danish HIV Cohort Study also allowed us to study a number of time trends at the population level. Despite what was feared, we found that the prevalence of triple...... positive trends in virological failure and drug-resistance development at the population level, our findings underline the crucial importance of always having an effective treatment option available for the individual patient with drug-resistant virus. As mortality was declining for persons with access...

  15. Empirical mode decomposition and k-nearest embedding vectors for timely analyses of antibiotic resistance trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas Teodoro

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Antibiotic resistance is a major worldwide public health concern. In clinical settings, timely antibiotic resistance information is key for care providers as it allows appropriate targeted treatment or improved empirical treatment when the specific results of the patient are not yet available. OBJECTIVE: To improve antibiotic resistance trend analysis algorithms by building a novel, fully data-driven forecasting method from the combination of trend extraction and machine learning models for enhanced biosurveillance systems. METHODS: We investigate a robust model for extraction and forecasting of antibiotic resistance trends using a decade of microbiology data. Our method consists of breaking down the resistance time series into independent oscillatory components via the empirical mode decomposition technique. The resulting waveforms describing intrinsic resistance trends serve as the input for the forecasting algorithm. The algorithm applies the delay coordinate embedding theorem together with the k-nearest neighbor framework to project mappings from past events into the future dimension and estimate the resistance levels. RESULTS: The algorithms that decompose the resistance time series and filter out high frequency components showed statistically significant performance improvements in comparison with a benchmark random walk model. We present further qualitative use-cases of antibiotic resistance trend extraction, where empirical mode decomposition was applied to highlight the specificities of the resistance trends. CONCLUSION: The decomposition of the raw signal was found not only to yield valuable insight into the resistance evolution, but also to produce novel models of resistance forecasters with boosted prediction performance, which could be utilized as a complementary method in the analysis of antibiotic resistance trends.

  16. Trends in Educational Augmented Reality Studies: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirakaya, Mustafa; Alsancak Sirakaya, Didem

    2018-01-01

    This study aimed to identify the trends in the studies conducted on Educational Augmented Reality (AR). 105 articles found in ERIC, EBSCOhost and ScienceDirect databases were reviewed with this purpose in mind. Analyses displayed that the number of educational AR studies has increased over the years. Quantitative methods were mostly preferred in…

  17. Time trends in burdens of cadmium, lead, and mercury in the population of northern Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wennberg, Maria; Lundh, Thomas; Bergdahl, Ingvar A.; Hallmans, Goeran; Jansson, Jan-Hakan; Stegmayr, Birgitta; Custodio, Hipolito M.; Skerfving, Staffan

    2006-01-01

    The time trends of exposure to heavy metals are not adequately known. This is a worldwide problem with regard to the basis for preventive actions and evaluation of their effects. This study addresses time trends for the three toxic elements cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), and lead (Pb). Concentrations in erythrocytes (Ery) were determined in a subsample of the population-based MONICA surveys from 1990, 1994, and 1999 in a total of 600 men and women aged 25-74 years. The study took place in the two northernmost counties in Sweden. To assess the effect of changes in the environment, adjustments were made for life-style factors that are determinants of exposure. Annual decreases of 5-6% were seen for Ery-Pb levels (adjusted for age and changes in alcohol intake) and Ery-Hg levels (adjusted for age and changes in fish intake). Ery-Cd levels (adjusted for age) showed a similar significant decrease in smoking men. It is concluded that for Pb and maybe also Hg the actions against pollution during recent decades have caused a rapid decrease of exposure; for Hg the decreased use of dental amalgam may also have had an influence. For Cd, the decline in Ery-Cd was seen only in smokers, indicating that Cd exposure from tobacco has decreased, while other environmental sources of Cd have not changed significantly. To further improve the health status in Sweden, it is important to decrease the pollution of Cd, and actions against smoking in the community are important

  18. Power to detect trend in short-term time series of bird abundance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thogmartin, W.E.; Gray, B.R.; Gallagher, M.; Young, N.; Rohweder, J.J.; Knutson, M.G.

    2007-01-01

    Avian point counts for population monitoring are often collected over a short timespan (e.g., 3-5 years). We examined whether power was adequate (power ???0.80) in short-duration studies to warrant the calculation of trend estimates. We modeled power to detect trends in abundance indices of eight bird species occurring across three floodplain habitats (wet prairie, early successional forest, and mature forest) as a function of trend magnitude, sample size, and species-specific sampling and among-year variance components. Point counts (5 min) were collected from 365 locations distributed among 10 study sites along the lower Missouri River; counts were collected over the period 2002 to 2004. For all study species, power appeared adequate to detect trends in studies of short duration (three years) at a single site when exponential declines were relatively large in magnitude (more than -5% year-1) and the sample of point counts per year was ???30. Efforts to monitor avian trends with point counts in small managed lands (i.e., refuges and parks) should recognize this sample size restriction by including point counts from offsite locations as a means of obtaining sufficient numbers of samples per strata. Trends of less than -5% year-1 are not likely to be consistently detected for most species over the short term, but short-term monitoring may still be useful as the basis for comparisons with future surveys. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2007.

  19. Adaptive trend estimation in financial time series via multiscale change-point-induced basis recovery

    OpenAIRE

    Schröder, Anna Louise; Fryzlewicz, Piotr

    2013-01-01

    Low-frequency financial returns can be modelled as centered around piecewise-constant trend functions which change at certain points in time. We propose a new stochastic time series framework which captures this feature. The main ingredient of our model is a hierarchically-ordered oscillatory basis of simple piecewise-constant functions. It differs from the Fourier-like bases traditionally used in time series analysis in that it is determined by change-points, and hence needs to be estimated ...

  20. Deep Temporal-Recurrent-Replicated-Softmax for Topical Trends over Time

    OpenAIRE

    Gupta, Pankaj; Rajaram, Subburam; Schütze, Hinrich; Andrassy, Bernt

    2017-01-01

    Dynamic topic modeling facilitates the identification of topical trends over time in temporal collections of unstructured documents. We introduce a novel unsupervised neural dynamic topic model known as Recurrent Neural Network-Replicated Softmax Model (RNNRSM), where the discovered topics at each time influence the topic discovery in the subsequent time steps. We account for the temporal ordering of documents by explicitly modeling a joint distribution of latent topical dependencies over tim...

  1. Cycling in São Paulo, Brazil (1997-2012): Correlates, time trends and health consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sá, Thiago Hérick; Duran, Ana Clara; Tainio, Marko; Monteiro, Carlos Augusto; Woodcock, James

    2016-12-01

    The purpose of the study was to describe cyclists and cycling trips, and to explore correlates, time trends and health consequences of cycling in São Paulo, Brazil from 1997 to 2012. Cross-sectional analysis using repeated São Paulo Household Travel Surveys (HTS). At all time periods cycling was a minority travel mode in São Paulo (1174 people with cycling trips out of 214,719 people). Poisson regressions for individual correlates were estimated using the entire 2012 HTS sample. Men were six times more likely to cycle than women. We found rates of bicycle use rising over time among the richest quartile but total cycling rates dropped from 1997 to 2012 due to decreasing rates among the poor. Harms from air pollution would negate benefits from physical activity through cycling only at 1997 air pollution levels and at very high cycling levels (≥ 9 h of cycling per day). Exposure-based road injury risk decreased between 2007 and 2012, from 0.76 to 0.56 cyclist deaths per 1000 person-hours travelled. Policies to reduce spatial segregation, measures to tackle air pollution, improvements in dedicated cycling infrastructure, and integrating the bicycle with the public transport system in neighborhoods of all income levels could make cycling safer and prevent more individuals from abandoning the cycling mode in São Paulo.

  2. Cycling in São Paulo, Brazil (1997–2012: Correlates, time trends and health consequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thiago Hérick Sá

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to describe cyclists and cycling trips, and to explore correlates, time trends and health consequences of cycling in São Paulo, Brazil from 1997 to 2012. Cross-sectional analysis using repeated São Paulo Household Travel Surveys (HTS. At all time periods cycling was a minority travel mode in São Paulo (1174 people with cycling trips out of 214,719 people. Poisson regressions for individual correlates were estimated using the entire 2012 HTS sample. Men were six times more likely to cycle than women. We found rates of bicycle use rising over time among the richest quartile but total cycling rates dropped from 1997 to 2012 due to decreasing rates among the poor. Harms from air pollution would negate benefits from physical activity through cycling only at 1997 air pollution levels and at very high cycling levels (≥9 h of cycling per day. Exposure-based road injury risk decreased between 2007 and 2012, from 0.76 to 0.56 cyclist deaths per 1000 person-hours travelled. Policies to reduce spatial segregation, measures to tackle air pollution, improvements in dedicated cycling infrastructure, and integrating the bicycle with the public transport system in neighborhoods of all income levels could make cycling safer and prevent more individuals from abandoning the cycling mode in São Paulo.

  3. Oklahoma Study of Educator Supply and Demand: Trends and Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg-Jacobson, Alex; Levin, Jesse

    2015-01-01

    In June 2014, the Oklahoma State Regents of Higher Education (OSRHE) commissioned American Institutes for Research (AIR) to conduct a study to better understand both historical and future predicted trends of educator supply and demand across Oklahoma. OSRHE commissioned the study in partnership with the Oklahoma Commission for Teacher Preparation…

  4. Time trends of perfluorinated alkyl acids in serum from Danish pregnant women 2008-2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard-Olesen, Christian; Bach, Cathrine C; Long, Manhai

    2016-01-01

    for sixteen PFAAs using solid phase extraction and liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). We investigated the time trends for seven PFAAs, which were detected in more than 50% of the samples: perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), perfluoroheptane sulfonate (PFHpS), perfluorooctane sulfonate...

  5. Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    different methods. As a result, conclusions from data comparisons have not been consistent. An expert panel was asked to evaluate the weight of evidence for whether the data, collected from 1940 to 1994, are sufficient to suggest or establish a secular trend in the timing of puberty markers in US boys...

  6. Socioeconomic differentials in mortality among men within Great Britain: time trends and contributory causes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marang-van de Mheen, P. J.; Davey Smith, G.; Hart, C. L.; Gunning-Schepers, L. J.

    1998-01-01

    To assess the size of mortality differentials in men by social class in Scotland as compared with England and Wales, and to analyse the time trends in these differentials. Men from England and Wales and Scotland around each census from 1951 to 1981. Poisson regression analysis was used to calculate

  7. Blinded sample size re-estimation for recurrent event data with time trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, S; Schmidli, H; Friede, T

    2013-12-30

    The use of an internal pilot study for blinded sample size re-estimation (BSSR) allows to reduce uncertainty on the appropriate sample size compared with conventional fixed sample size designs. Recently BSSR procedures for recurrent event data were proposed and investigated. These approaches assume treatment-specific constant event rates that might not always be appropriate as found in relapsing multiple sclerosis. On the basis of a proportional intensity frailty model, we propose methods for BSSR in situations where a time trend of the event rates is present. For the sample size planning and the final analysis standard negative binomial methods can be used, as long as the patient follow-up time is approximately equal in the treatment groups. To re-estimate the sample size at interim, however, a full likelihood analysis is necessary. Operating characteristics such as rejection probabilities and sample size distribution are evaluated in a simulation study motivated by a systematic review in relapsing multiple sclerosis. The key factors affecting the operating characteristics are the study duration and the length of the recruitment period. The proposed procedure for BSSR controls the type I error rate and maintains the desired power against misspecifications of the nuisance parameters. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Railway suicide in England and Wales 2000-2013: a time-trends analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Anna K; Knipe, Duleeka W; Thomas, Kyla H

    2016-03-15

    In 2010, the "Tackling Suicide on the Railways" programme was launched as a joint initiative among Network Rail, the Samaritans and other key organisations such as the British Transport Police and train operators to achieve a 20% reduction in railway suicides from 2010 to 2015 in Great Britain. We report the most recent age and sex specific trends in railway suicide in England and Wales from 2000 to 2013 and examine whether the initiative's target reduction in railway suicides is likely to be achieved. Population data and suicide mortality data (all methods combined and railway) for England and Wales were obtained from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and used to calculate age and gender specific rates for deaths registered from 2000 to 2013. Data on railway suicides were also obtained from the Rail Safety and Standards Board (RSSB) and compared with ONS data. We used joinpoint regression to identify changes in suicide trends across the study period. The railway was used in 4.1% of all suicides in England and Wales (RSSB data were similar to ONS data for most years). Suicides in all persons from all causes decreased from 2000 to 2007, with small increases from 2008 until 2013; this rise was entirely due to an increase in male suicides. Railway suicide rates increased over the entire study period; the proportion of railway suicides in all persons increased from 3.5 to 4.9% during the study period. This trend was also mainly driven by increases in male suicides as female railway suicide rates remained steady over time. The highest age specific railway suicide rates were observed in middle aged men and women. Although there was no conclusive evidence of an increase in ONS railway suicides, RSSB data showed a statistically significant increase in railway suicides in males from 2009 onwards. The continued rise in male railway suicide in England and Wales is concerning, particularly due to the high economic costs and psychological trauma associated with these

  9. Chronological bias in randomized clinical trials arising from different types of unobserved time trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamm, M; Hilgers, R-D

    2014-01-01

    In clinical trials patients are commonly recruited sequentially over time incurring the risk of chronological bias due to (unobserved) time trends. To minimize the risk of chronological bias, a suitable randomization procedure should be chosen. Considering different time trend scenarios, we aim at a detailed evaluation of the extent of chronological bias under permuted block randomization in order to provide recommendations regarding the choice of randomization at the design stage of a clinical trial and to assess the maximum extent of bias for a realized sequence in the analysis stage. For the assessment of chronological bias we consider linear, logarithmic and stepwise trends illustrating typical changes during recruitment in clinical practice. Bias and variance of the treatment effect estimator as well as the empirical type I error rate when applying the t-test are investigated. Different sample sizes, block sizes and strengths of time trends are considered. Using large block sizes, a notable bias exists in the estimate of the treatment effect for specific sequences. This results in a heavily inflated type I error for realized worst-case sequences and an enlarged mean squared error of the treatment effect estimator. Decreasing the block size restricts these effects of time trends. Already applying permuted block randomization with two blocks instead of the random allocation rule achieves a good reduction of the mean squared error and of the inflated type I error. Averaged over all sequences, the type I error of the t-test is far below the nominal significance level due to an overestimated variance. Unobserved time trends can induce a strong bias in the treatment effect estimate and in the test decision. Therefore, already in the design stage of a clinical trial a suitable randomization procedure should be chosen. According to our results, small block sizes should be preferred, but also medium block sizes are sufficient to restrict chronological bias to an

  10. Shifting trends: detecting environmentally mediated regulation in long-lived marine vertebrates using time-series data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, Clive R; Bester, Marthán N; Hindell, Mark A; Brook, Barry W; Bradshaw, Corey J A

    2009-02-01

    Assessing the status and trends in animal populations is essential for effective species conservation and management practices. However, unless time-series abundance data demonstrate rapid and reliable fluctuations, objective appraisal of directionality of trends is problematic. We adopted a multiple-working hypotheses approach based on information-theoretic and Bayesian multi-model inference to examine the population trends and form of intrinsic regulation demonstrated by a long-lived species, the southern elephant seal. We also determined the evidence for density dependence in 11 other well-studied marine mammal species. (1) We tested the type of population regulation for elephant seals from Marion Island (1986-2004) and from 11 other marine mammal species, and (2) we described the trends and behavior of the 19-year population time series at Marion Island to identify changes in population trends. We contrasted five plausible trend models using information-theoretic and Bayesian-inference estimates of model parsimony. Our analyses identified two distinct phases of population growth for this population with the inflexion occurring in 1998. Thus, the population decreased between 1986 and 1997 (-3.7% per annum) and increased between 1997 and 2004 (1.9% per annum). An index of environmental stochasticity, the Southern Oscillation Index, explained some of the variance in r and N. We determined analytically that there was good evidence for density dependence in the Marion Island population and that density dependence was widespread among marine mammal species (67% of species showed evidence for population regulation). This approach demonstrates the potential functionality of a relatively simple technique that can be applied to short time series to identify the type of regulation, and the uncertainty associated with the phenomenon, operating in populations of large mammals.

  11. Effects of study design and trends for EVAR versus OSR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Hopkins

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Robert Hopkins1, James Bowen1, Kaitryn Campbell1, Gord Blackhouse4, Guy De Rose2,3, Teresa Novick2, Daria O’Reilly1,4, Ron Goeree1,4, Jean-Eric Tarride1,41Programs for the Assessment of Technology in Health (PATH Research Institute, Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics; 2Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of Surgery, London Health Sciences Centre, London, Ontario, Canada; 3Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada; 4Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, CanadaPurpose: To investigate if study design factors such as randomization, multi-centre versus single centre evidence, institutional surgical volume, and patient selection affect the outcomes for endovascular repair (EVAR versus open surgical repair (OSR. Finally, we investigate trends over time in EVAR versus OSR outcomes.Methods: Search strategies for comparative studies were performed individually for: OVID’s MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, HAPI, and Evidence Based Medicine (EBM Reviews (including Cochrane DSR, ACP Journal Club, DARE and CCTR, limited to 1990 and November 2006.Results: Identified literature: 84 comparative studies pertaining to 57,645 patients. These include 4 randomized controlled trials (RCTs, plus 2 RCTs with long-term follow-up. The other 78 comparative studies were nonrandomized with 75 reporting perioperative outcomes, of which 16 were multi-centre, and 59 single-centre studies. Of the single-centre studies 31 were low-volume and 28 were high-volume centres. In addition, 5 studies had all patients anatomically eligible for EVAR, and 8 studies included high-risk patients only. Finally, 25 long term observational studies reported outcomes up to 3 years.Outcomes: Lower perioperative mortality and rates of complications for EVAR versus OSR varied across study designs and patient

  12. Time-trends in assisted and unassisted suicides completed with different methods: Swiss National Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steck, Nicole; Zwahlen, Marcel; Egger, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    The number of suicides assisted by right-to-die associations has increased in recent years in Switzerland. The aim of our study was to compare time trends in rates of assisted and unassisted suicide from 1991-2008. The Swiss National Cohort is a longitudinal study of mortality in the Swiss population; based on linkage of census data with mortality records up to 2008. The Federal Statistical Office coded suspected assisted suicides from 1998 onwards; and from 2003 onwards right-to-die associations reported the suicides they assisted. We used Poisson regression to analyse trends in rates of suicide per 100'000 person-years, by gender and age groups (15-34, 35-64, 65-94 years). A total of 7'940'297 individuals and 24'842 suicides were included. In women, rates changed little in the younger age groups but increased in 65-94-year-olds, due to an increase in suicide by poisoning (from 5.1 to 17.2 per 100'000; p suicides by poisoning was also observed in older men (from 8.6 to 18.2; psuicides by poisoning were assisted. In men, suicide rates declined in all age groups, driven by declines in suicide with firearms. Research is needed to gain a better understanding of the reasons for the tripling of assisted suicide rates in older women, and the doubling of rates in older men, of attitudes and vulnerabilities of those choosing assisted suicide, and of access to palliative care. Rates of assisted suicide should be monitored; including data on patient characteristics and underlying comorbidities.

  13. Time Trends in Self-Rated Health and Disability in Older Spanish People: Differences by Gender and Age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giron, Pedro

    2016-03-01

    To analyse time trends in self-rated health in older people by gender and age and examine disability in the time trends of self-rated health. The data used come from the Spanish National Health Surveys conducted in 2001, 2003, 2006 and 2011-12. Samples of adults aged 16 yr and older were selected. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess the association between age, gender, socio-economic status, marital status, disability and self-rated health across period study. Women exhibited lower (higher) prevalence of good self-rated health (disability) compared to men. The multivariate analysis for time trends found that good self-rated health increased from 2001 to 2012. Overall, variables associated with a lower likelihood of good self-rated health were: being married or living with a partner, lower educational level, and disability. Trends of good self-rated health differ by gender according to socio-demographic factors and the prevalence of disability.

  14. Trend analysis of the 20 years time series of stratospheric ozone profiles observed by the GROMOS microwave radiometer at Bern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, L.; Hocke, K.; Eckert, E.; von Clarmann, T.; Kämpfer, N.

    2015-06-01

    The ozone radiometer GROMOS (GROund-based Millimeterwave Ozone Spectrometer) performs continuous observations of stratospheric ozone profiles since 1994 above Bern, Switzerland. GROMOS is part of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). From November 1994 to October 2011, the ozone line spectra were measured by a filter bench (FB). In July 2009, a Fast-Fourier-Transform spectrometer (FFTS) has been added as backend to GROMOS. The new FFTS and the original FB measured in parallel for over two years. The ozone profiles retrieved separately from the ozone line spectra of FB and FFTS agree within 5 % at pressure levels from 30 to 0.5 hPa, from October 2009 to August 2011. A careful harmonisation of both time series has been carried out by taking the FFTS as the reference instrument for the FB. This enables us to assess the long-term trend derived from more than 20 years of stratospheric ozone observations at Bern. The trend analysis has been performed by using a robust multilinear parametric trend model which includes a linear term, the solar variability, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the annual and semi-annual oscillation and several harmonics with period lengths between 3 and 24 months. Over the last years, some experimental and modelling trend studies have shown that the stratospheric ozone trend is levelling off or even turning positive. With our observed ozone profiles, we are able to support this statement by reporting a statistically significant trend of +3.14 % decade-1 at 4.36 hPa, covering the period from January 1997 to January 2015, above Bern. Additionally, we have estimated a negative trend over this period of -3.94 % decade-1 at 0.2 hPa.

  15. Trend analysis of the 20-year time series of stratospheric ozone profiles observed by the GROMOS microwave radiometer at Bern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, L.; Hocke, K.; Eckert, E.; von Clarmann, T.; Kämpfer, N.

    2015-10-01

    The ozone radiometer GROMOS (GROund-based Millimeter-wave Ozone Spectrometer) has been performing continuous observations of stratospheric ozone profiles since 1994 above Bern, Switzerland (46.95° N, 7.44° E, 577 m). GROMOS is part of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). From November 1994 to October 2011, the ozone line spectra were measured by a filter bench (FB). In July 2009, a fast Fourier transform spectrometer (FFTS) was added as a back end to GROMOS. The new FFTS and the original FB measured in parallel for over 2 years. The ozone profiles retrieved separately from the ozone line spectra of FB and FFTS agree within 5 % at pressure levels from 30 to 0.5 hPa, from October 2009 to August 2011. A careful harmonisation of both time series has been carried out by taking the FFTS as the reference instrument for the FB. This enables us to assess the long-term trend derived from stratospheric ozone observations at Bern. The trend analysis was performed by using a robust multilinear parametric trend model which includes a linear term, the solar variability, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the annual and semi-annual oscillation and several harmonics with period lengths between 3 and 24 months. Over the last years, some experimental and modelling trend studies have shown that the stratospheric ozone trend is levelling off or even turning positive. With our observed ozone profiles, we are able to support this statement by reporting a statistically significant trend of +3.14 % decade-1 at 4.36 hPa (37.76 km), covering the period from January 1997 to January 2015, above Bern. Additionally, we have estimated a negative trend over this period of -3.94 % decade-1 at 0.2 hPa (59 km).

  16. [Comparison of application of Cochran-Armitage trend test and linear regression analysis for rate trend analysis in epidemiology study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D Z; Wang, C; Shen, C F; Zhang, Y; Zhang, H; Song, G D; Xue, X D; Xu, Z L; Zhang, S; Jiang, G H

    2017-05-10

    We described the time trend of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) from 1999 to 2013 in Tianjin incidence rate with Cochran-Armitage trend (CAT) test and linear regression analysis, and the results were compared. Based on actual population, CAT test had much stronger statistical power than linear regression analysis for both overall incidence trend and age specific incidence trend (Cochran-Armitage trend P valuelinear regression P value). The statistical power of CAT test decreased, while the result of linear regression analysis remained the same when population size was reduced by 100 times and AMI incidence rate remained unchanged. The two statistical methods have their advantages and disadvantages. It is necessary to choose statistical method according the fitting degree of data, or comprehensively analyze the results of two methods.

  17. Flipped Classroom Research and Trends from Different Fields of Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zainuddin, Zamzami; Halili, Siti Hajar

    2016-01-01

    This paper aims to analyse the trends and contents of flipped classroom research based on 20 articles that report on flipped learning classroom initiatives from 2013-2015. The content analysis was used as a methodology to investigate methodologies, area of studies, technology tools or online platforms, the most frequently used keywords and works…

  18. Global cardiovascular research output, citations, and collaborations: a time-trend, bibliometric analysis (1999-2008).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffman, Mark D; Baldridge, Abigail; Bloomfield, Gerald S; Colantonio, Lisandro D; Prabhakaran, Poornima; Ajay, Vamadevan S; Suh, Sarah; Lewison, Grant; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

    2013-01-01

    Health research is one mechanism to improve population-level health and should generally match the health needs of populations. However, there have been limited data to assess the trends in national-level cardiovascular research output, even as cardiovascular disease [CVD] has become the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. We performed a time trends analysis of cardiovascular research publications (1999-2008) downloaded from Web of Knowledge using a iteratively-tested cardiovascular bibliometric filter with >90% precision and recall. We evaluated cardiovascular research publications, five-year running actual citation indices [ACIs], and degree of international collaboration measured through the ratio of the fractional count of addresses from one country against all addresses for each publication. Global cardiovascular publication volume increased from 40 661 publications in 1999 to 55 284 publications in 2008, which represents a 36% increase. The proportion of cardiovascular publications from high-income, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [OECD] countries declined from 93% to 84% of the total share over the study period. High-income, OECD countries generally had higher fractional counts, which suggest less international collaboration, than lower income countries from 1999-2008. There was an inverse relationship between cardiovascular publications and age-standardized CVD morbidity and mortality rates, but a direct, curvilinear relationship between cardiovascular publications and Human Development Index from 1999-2008. Cardiovascular health research output has increased substantially in the past decade, with a greater share of citations being published from low- and middle-income countries. However, low- and middle-income countries with the higher burdens of cardiovascular disease continue to have lower research output than high-income countries, and thus require targeted research investments to improve cardiovascular health.

  19. Through the sands of time: Beach litter trends from nine cleaned north cornish beaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, Andrew J R; Porter, Adam; Hembrow, Neil; Sharpe, Jolyon; Galloway, Tamara S; Lewis, Ceri

    2017-09-01

    Marine litter and its accumulation on beaches is an issue of major current concern due to its significant environmental and economic impacts. Yet our understanding of spatio-temporal trends in beach litter and the drivers of these trends are currently limited by the availability of robust long term data sets. Here we present a unique data set collected systematically once a month, every month over a six year period for nine beaches along the North Coast of Cornwall, U.K. to investigate the key drivers of beach litter in the Bude, Padstow and Porthcothan areas. Overall, an average of 0.02 litter items m -2 per month were collected during the six year study, with Bude beaches (Summerleaze, Crooklets and Widemouth) the most impacted (0.03 ± 0.004 litter items m -2 per month). The amount of litter collected each month decreased by 18% and 71% respectively for Padstow (Polzeath, Trevone and Harlyn) and Bude areas over the 6 years, possibly related to the regular cleaning, however litter increased by 120% despite this monthly cleaning effort on the Padstow area beaches. Importantly, at all nine beaches the litter was dominated by small, fragmented plastic pieces and rope fibres, which account for 32% and 17% of all litter items collected, respectively. The weathered nature of these plastics indicates they have been in the marine environment for an extended period of time. So, whilst classifying the original source of these plastics is not possible, it can be concluded they are not the result of recent public littering. This data highlights both the extent of the marine litter problem and that current efforts to reduce littering by beach users will only tackle a fraction of this litter. Such information is vital for developing effective management strategies for beach and marine litter at both regional and global levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Global cardiovascular research output, citations, and collaborations: a time-trend, bibliometric analysis (1999-2008.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark D Huffman

    Full Text Available Health research is one mechanism to improve population-level health and should generally match the health needs of populations. However, there have been limited data to assess the trends in national-level cardiovascular research output, even as cardiovascular disease [CVD] has become the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide.We performed a time trends analysis of cardiovascular research publications (1999-2008 downloaded from Web of Knowledge using a iteratively-tested cardiovascular bibliometric filter with >90% precision and recall. We evaluated cardiovascular research publications, five-year running actual citation indices [ACIs], and degree of international collaboration measured through the ratio of the fractional count of addresses from one country against all addresses for each publication.Global cardiovascular publication volume increased from 40 661 publications in 1999 to 55 284 publications in 2008, which represents a 36% increase. The proportion of cardiovascular publications from high-income, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [OECD] countries declined from 93% to 84% of the total share over the study period. High-income, OECD countries generally had higher fractional counts, which suggest less international collaboration, than lower income countries from 1999-2008. There was an inverse relationship between cardiovascular publications and age-standardized CVD morbidity and mortality rates, but a direct, curvilinear relationship between cardiovascular publications and Human Development Index from 1999-2008.Cardiovascular health research output has increased substantially in the past decade, with a greater share of citations being published from low- and middle-income countries. However, low- and middle-income countries with the higher burdens of cardiovascular disease continue to have lower research output than high-income countries, and thus require targeted research investments to improve

  1. Quaternary disappearance of tree taxa from Southern Europe: Timing and trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magri, Donatella; Di Rita, Federico; Aranbarri, Josu; Fletcher, William; González-Sampériz, Penélope

    2017-05-01

    A hundred pollen and plant macrofossil records from the Iberian Peninsula, Southern France, the Italian Peninsula, Greece and the Aegean, and the southwestern Black Sea area formed the basis for a review of the Quaternary distribution and extirpation of tree populations from Southern Europe. Following a discussion of the caveats/challenges about using pollen data, the Quaternary history of tree taxa has been reconstructed with attention to Taxodium/Glyptostrobus, Sciadopitys, Cathaya, Cedrus, Tsuga, Eucommia, Engelhardia, Carya, Pterocarya, Parrotia, Liquidambar, and Zelkova. The timing of extinction, distributed over the whole Quaternary, appears very diverse from one region to the other, in agreement with current biodiversity in Southern Europe. The geographical patterns of persistence/disappearance of taxa show unexpected trends and rule out a simple North to South and/or West to East trend in extirpations. In particular, it is possible to detect disjunct populations (Engelhardia), long-term persistence of taxa in restricted regions (Sciadopitys), distinct populations/species/genera in different geographical areas (Taxodium type). Some taxa that are still widespread in Europe have undergone extirpation in Mediterranean areas in the lateglacial period and Holocene (Buxus, Carpinus betulus, Picea); they provide an indication of the modes of disappearance of tree populations that may be useful to evaluate correctly the vulnerability of modern fragmented plant populations. The demographic histories of tree taxa obtained by combined palaeobotanical and genetic studies is a most challenging field of research needed not only to assess species/population differentiation, but also to reach a better understanding of extinction processes, an essential task in the current global change scenario.

  2. Assessment of land degradation using time series trend analysis of vegetation indictors in Otindag Sandy land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, H Y; Li, Z Y; Gao, Z H; Wu, J J; Sun, B; Li, C L

    2014-01-01

    Land condition assessment is a basic prerequisite for finding the degradation of a territory, which might lead to desertification under climatic and human pressures. The temporal change in vegetation productivity is a key indicator of land degradation. In this paper, taking the Otindag Sandy Land as a case, the mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI a ), net primary production (NPP) and vegetation rain use efficiency (RUE) dynamic trends during 2001–2010 were analysed. The Mann-Kendall test and the Correlation Analysis method were used and their sensitivities to land degradation were evaluated. The results showed that the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE) showed a downward trend with the two methods in the past 10 years and the land was degraded. For the analysis of the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE), it indicated a decreasing trend in 62.57%, 74.16% and 88.56% of the study area according to the Mann-Kendall test and in 57.85%, 68.38% and 85.29% according to the correlation analysis method. However, the change trends were not significant, the significant trends at the 95% confidence level only accounted for a small proportion. Analysis of NDVI a , NPP and RUE series showed a significant decreasing trend in 9.21%, 4.81% and 6.51% with the Mann-Kendall test. The NPP change trends showed obvious positive link with the precipitation in the study area. While the effect of the inter-annual variation of the precipitation for RUE was small, the vegetation RUE can provide valuable insights into the status of land condition and had best sensitivity to land degradation

  3. Historical time trends in red blood cell usage in the Netherlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Hoeven LR

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Loan R van Hoeven,1,2 Maria MW Koopman,3 Hendrik Koffijberg,4 Kit CB Roes,1 Mart P Janssen1,2 1Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, 2Transfusion Technology Assessment Department, Sanquin Research, 3Department of Transfusion Medicine, Sanquin Blood Bank, Amsterdam, 4Department of Health Technology and Services Research, MIRA Institute for Biomedical Technology and Technical Medicine, University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands Background: While the number of hospitalized patients in Dutch hospitals has increased since 1997, the demand for red blood cell units (RBCs has simultaneously decreased. This implies a dramatic change in transfusion practice toward fewer blood transfusions on average per patient.Objectives: In order to explain the RBC reduction, different patient groups (surgical, medical, obstetrical, and specific age groups were studied retrospectively in relation to RBC use. In addition, the use of combinations of RBCs, fresh frozen plasma, and platelets during a transfusion episode was examined for trends over time.Materials and methods: Data from the PROTON database, containing information on all transfusions in twelve Dutch hospitals in the period 1996–2005, including corresponding patient data (age, diagnosis, treatment, and hospitalizations and blood unit data (type, amount, and date were analyzed.Results: The proportion of RBCs used for surgical patients declined from 50% in 1996 to 40% in 2005, whereas medical use increased from 47% to 58% (the remaining 2%–3% went to obstetrical patients. Changes were more marked in the higher age groups. Also, a trend was observed toward the use of only one or two RBCs during a transfusion episode rather than three or more. Among surgical patients who received blood, the use of combinations of blood units, as compared to RBCs only, increased from 32% to 39%.Conclusion: The results suggest a more restrictive transfusion policy

  4. Frequency, distribution and time trends of types of leisure-time physical activity in Brazil, 2006-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Sa, Thiago Herick; Garcia, Leandro Martin Totaro; Claro, Rafael Moreira

    2014-12-01

    To describe the frequency and the distribution of the main types of leisure time physical activity (LTPA) practiced by Brazilian adults in 2012 and to observe their time trends from 2006 to 2012. Cross-sectional data from the Brazilian surveillance system of risk and protective factors for non-transmissible chronic diseases from 2006 to 2012 (around 54,000 adults aged 18 years or older in all Brazilian State capitals interviewed yearly). Participants were asked whether they had practiced any type of exercise or sport in the last 3 months, and if so which type. Linear regression was used to identify trends of the five most cited LTPA. In 2012, walking was reported as the main LTPA (18.1 %), followed by strength training/gymnastics (11.2 %) and football (7.2 %). Time-trend analysis showed reduction in football (9.1-7.2 %; p = 0.004, β = -0.25, R(2) = 0.79) and increase in strength training/gymnastics (7.9-11.2 %; p = 0.02, β = 0.50, R(2) = 0.62) and running (1.7-3.1 %; p < 0.001, β = 0.22, R(2) = 0.93). Walking was the main type of LTPA. Patterns of LTPA types remained relatively stable over the last 7 years.

  5. Epoch making NIRS studies seen through citation trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dan, Ippeita

    2009-01-01

    Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) studies through citation trends are investigated of literature concerning only the brain function measurement and its methodology together with NIRS principle, technological development, present state and future view. Investigation is conducted firstly for the survey of important author name of those concerned papers in Web of Science and Google Scholar with search words of NIRS, brain and optical topography as an option. Second, >100 papers of those authors citing any of them are picked up and their papers are ranked in accordance with Web of Science citation number, of which top-nineteen are presented here. Impact and epoch making papers are reviewed with explanations of: the establishment of measuring technology of cerebral blood flow change and subsequent brain function by NIRS; development with multi-channel detection; simultaneous measurement with other imaging modalities; examination of NIRS validity; spatial analysis of NIRS; and measurement of brain function. The highest times of citation are 1,238 of the paper by F. F. Jobsis in 'Science' (1977). It should be noted that 10 of top 19 papers are those by Japanese authors. However, review articles omitted in the present literature survey are mostly described by foreign authors: an effort to systemize the concerned fields might be required in this country. (K.T.)

  6. Google trends: a web-based tool for real-time surveillance of disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carneiro, Herman Anthony; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

    2009-11-15

    Google Flu Trends can detect regional outbreaks of influenza 7-10 days before conventional Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveillance systems. We describe the Google Trends tool, explain how the data are processed, present examples, and discuss its strengths and limitations. Google Trends shows great promise as a timely, robust, and sensitive surveillance system. It is best used for surveillance of epidemics and diseases with high prevalences and is currently better suited to track disease activity in developed countries, because to be most effective, it requires large populations of Web search users. Spikes in search volume are currently hard to interpret but have the benefit of increasing vigilance. Google should work with public health care practitioners to develop specialized tools, using Google Flu Trends as a blueprint, to track infectious diseases. Suitable Web search query proxies for diseases need to be established for specialized tools or syndromic surveillance. This unique and innovative technology takes us one step closer to true real-time outbreak surveillance.

  7. Trends in U.S. adult chronic disability rates over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kurtz, Stephen G; Rao, Sowmya R

    2014-10-01

    Trends in the patterns and prevalence of chronic disability among U.S. residents carry important implications for public health and public policies across multiple societal sectors. To examine trends in U.S. adult population rates of chronic disability from 1998 to 2011 using 7 different disability measures and examining the implications of trends in population age, race and ethnicity, and body mass index (BMI). We used National Health Interview Survey data on civilian, non-institutionalized U.S. residents ages ≥ 18 from selected years between 1998 and 2011. We used self-reported information on functional impairments, activity/participation limitations, and expected duration to create 7 chronic disability measures. We used direct standardization to account for changes in age, race/ethnicity, and BMI distributions over time. Multivariable logistic regression models identified associations of disability with sociodemographic characteristics. Without adjustment, population rates of all 7 disabilities increased significantly (p disability types continued to show increased rates over time (p disability. If these trends continue, the numbers and proportions of U.S. residents with various disabilities will continue rising in coming years. In particular, the prevalence of movement difficulties and work limitations will increase. Furthermore, disability will remain strongly associated with low levels of education, employment, and income. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. THE EFFECT OF DECOMPOSITION METHOD AS DATA PREPROCESSING ON NEURAL NETWORKS MODEL FOR FORECASTING TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subanar Subanar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, one of the central topics for the neural networks (NN community is the issue of data preprocessing on the use of NN. In this paper, we will investigate this topic particularly on the effect of Decomposition method as data processing and the use of NN for modeling effectively time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. Limited empirical studies on seasonal time series forecasting with neural networks show that some find neural networks are able to model seasonality directly and prior deseasonalization is not necessary, and others conclude just the opposite. In this research, we study particularly on the effectiveness of data preprocessing, including detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method on NN modeling and forecasting performance. We use two kinds of data, simulation and real data. Simulation data are examined on multiplicative of trend and seasonality patterns. The results are compared to those obtained from the classical time series model. Our result shows that a combination of detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method is the effective data preprocessing on the use of NN for forecasting trend and seasonal time series.

  9. Characterization of Land Transitions Patterns from Multivariate Time Series Using Seasonal Trend Analysis and Principal Component Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benoit Parmentier

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Characterizing biophysical changes in land change areas over large regions with short and noisy multivariate time series and multiple temporal parameters remains a challenging task. Most studies focus on detection rather than the characterization, i.e., the manner by which surface state variables are altered by the process of changes. In this study, a procedure is presented to extract and characterize simultaneous temporal changes in MODIS multivariate times series from three surface state variables the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, land surface temperature (LST and albedo (ALB. The analysis involves conducting a seasonal trend analysis (STA to extract three seasonal shape parameters (Amplitude 0, Amplitude 1 and Amplitude 2 and using principal component analysis (PCA to contrast trends in change and no-change areas. We illustrate the method by characterizing trends in burned and unburned pixels in Alaska over the 2001–2009 time period. Findings show consistent and meaningful extraction of temporal patterns related to fire disturbances. The first principal component (PC1 is characterized by a decrease in mean NDVI (Amplitude 0 with a concurrent increase in albedo (the mean and the annual amplitude and an increase in LST annual variability (Amplitude 1. These results provide systematic empirical evidence of surface changes associated with one type of land change, fire disturbances, and suggest that STA with PCA may be used to characterize many other types of land transitions over large landscape areas using multivariate Earth observation time series.

  10. Forty years trends in timing of pubertal growth spurt in 157,000 Danish school children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aksglæde, Lise; Olsen, Lina Wøhlk; Sørensen, Thorkild I.A.

    2008-01-01

    study was to determine if the age at onset of pubertal growth spurt (OGS) and at peak height velocity (PHV) during puberty show secular trends during four decades in a large cohort of school children. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Annual measurements of height were available in all children born from 1930...... to 1969 who attended primary school in the Copenhagen Municipality. 135,223 girls and 21,612 boys fulfilled the criteria for determining age at OGS and age at PHV. These physiological events were used as markers of pubertal development in our computerized method in order to evaluate any secular trends...... a secular trend towards earlier sexual maturation of Danish children born between 1930 and 1969. Only minor changes were observed in duration of puberty assessed by the difference in ages at OGS and PHV Udgivelsesdato: 2008...

  11. Chronologic Trends in Studies on Fluoride Mechanisms of Action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, H J; Oh, H W; Lee, D W; Kim, C H; Ahn, J Y; Kim, Y; Shin, H B; Kim, C Y; Park, S H; Jeon, J G

    2017-11-01

    Fluoride has been widely used for the prevention of dental caries since the mid-20th century. The aim of this study was to investigate the chronologic trends in studies on fluoride mechanisms of action against dental caries during the years 1950 to 2015. To this aim, queries such as "fluoride," "fluoride and demineralization," "fluoride and remineralization," "fluoride and (plaque or biofilms)," and "fluoride and (bacteria or microbials)" were submitted to PubMed to collect research article information, including titles, abstracts, publication dates, author affiliations, and publication journals. The article information that PubMed produced was then collected by an automatic web crawler and examined through informetrics and linguistic analyses. We found that the number of articles concerned with fluoride mechanisms of action against dental caries was 6,903 and gradually increased over time during the years 1950 to 2015. They were published by 1,136 journals-most notably, Caries Research and Journal of Dental Research. Of the articles published, those related to bacteria/microbials had a higher percentage (44%) than those dealing with plaque/biofilms, demineralization, and remineralization. With regard to the geographic distribution of authors, Europe and North America accounted for 65% of the articles during the years 1987 to 2015, although the number of authors in Asia sharply increased in recent years. Among the fluoride compounds, NaF was mentioned more frequently than SnF 2 , Na 2 PO 3 F, amine fluoride, and acidulated phosphate fluoride during the years 1986 to 2015. Water fluoridation received the most attention among the various fluoride application methods (toothpastes, mouthwashes, fluoride varnishes, and fluoride gels) during the same period. These results, obtained from employing informetrics and linguistic analyses, suggest that in studies on fluoride mechanisms of action, 1) the unbalanced geographic distribution of articles and 2) the heavy

  12. Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, Peter; Larsen, Christina Viskum Lytken

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the time trend by region of suicides...... and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. DESIGN: Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970-2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993-1994 and 2005-2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. RESULTS: Suicide rates were higher among men than...... women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital...

  13. Rate and Time Trend of Perinatal, Infant, Maternal Mortality, Natality and Natural Population Growth in Kosovo

    OpenAIRE

    Azemi, Mehmedali; Gashi, Sanije; Berisha, Majlinda; Kolgeci, Selim; Ismaili-Jaha, Vlora

    2012-01-01

    Aim: The aim of work has been the presentation of the rate and time trends of some indicators of the heath condition of mothers and children in Kosovo: fetal mortality, early neonatal mortality, perinatal mortality, infant mortality, natality, natural growth of population etc. The treated patients were the newborn and infants in the post neonatal period, women during their pregnancy and those 42 days before and after the delivery. Methods: The data were taken from: register of the patients tr...

  14. Time trends of mercury in feathers of West Greenland birds of prey during 1851-2003.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, Rune; Riget, Frank F; Boertmann, David; Sonne, Christian; Olsen, Morten T; Fjeldså, Jon; Falk, Knud; Kirkegaard, Maja; Egevang, Carsten; Asmund, Gert; Wille, Frank; Møller, Søren

    2006-10-01

    Temporal trends of mercury (Hg) in West Greenland gyrfalcons, peregrine falcons, and white-tailed eagles were determined over 150 years from 1851 to 2003. Hg was measured in the fifth primary feather. Results showed that Hg increased in the order gyrfalcon (lowest) < peregrine falcon (intermediate) < white-tailed eagle (highest). All species showed significant age accumulations, which were taken into account in the temporal trend analysis. Of eight time trend analyses (three species and three age groups of which one was missing), seven showed an increase in primary feather concentrations. Of these, four were significant at the 5% level, two were close to being significant, and one was not significant. The linear regressions of which three out of four showed significant increases were for juvenile and immature gyrfalcon and juvenile peregrine falcon, which covered only periods prior to 1960, owing to limited data from the last half-century. The two sample comparisons of Hg 10-year medians for adult peregrine falcons and juvenile and adult white-tailed eagles indicated a continued increase during recent decades. However, low levels of Hg in a few recent collections among gyrfalcons and peregrines could indicate a change in the increasing trend.

  15. Time trend and risk factors of avascular bone necrosis in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tse, Sau Mei; Mok, Chi Chiu

    2017-06-01

    Objectives The objective of this paper is to study the time trend and risk factors of avascular bone necrosis (AVN) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods Between 1999 and 2014, patients who fulfilled the ACR criteria for SLE and developed symptomatic AVN were identified from our cohort database and compared with those without AVN, matched for age, sex and SLE duration. The standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of AVN in different SLE age groups were calculated from data derived from our hospital registry and population census. Risk factors for AVN were studied by logistic regression, adjusted by a propensity score for ever use of high-dose glucocorticoids (GCs). Results Fifty-five SLE patients with AVN and 220 SLE patients without AVN were studied. There were 104 AVN sites involved, with the hips being most commonly affected (82%). The point prevalence of AVN in our SLE cohort was 7.4%. The SIRs of AVN in our SLE patients were 131 (86.6-199; p < 0.001) and 56.0 (34.3-91.4; p < 0.001), respectively, in the periods 1995-2004 and 2005-2014. In both decades, the age-stratified SIR was highest in the youngest age group (<19 years). AVN patients were more likely to be treated with GCs and had received a significantly higher cumulative dose of prednisolone since SLE diagnosis (16.5 vs 10.7 grams; p = 0.001). The SLE damage score (excluding AVN) was also significantly higher in AVN than non-AVN patients (2.5 vs 0.4; p < 0.001). Logistic regression revealed that preceding septic arthritis of the involved joint (odds ratio (OR) 17.7 (1.5-205); p = 0.02), cushingoid body habitus (OR 2.4 (1.1-5.2); p = 0.04), LDL cholesterol level (OR 1.4 (1.0-1.9); p = 0.04), maximum daily dose of prednisolone (OR 6.4 (1.2-33.3); p = 0.03) and cumulative dose of prednisolone received in the first six months of the first lupus flare (OR 1.3 (1.0-1.8); p = 0.046) were independently associated with AVN. Conclusions AVN is prevalent in SLE

  16. Pediatric vancomycin dosing: Trends over time and the impact of therapeutic drug monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balch, Alfred H; Constance, Jonathan E; Thorell, Emily A; Stockmann, Chris; Korgenski, Ernest K; Campbell, Sarah C; Spigarelli, Michael G; Sherwin, Catherine M T

    2015-02-01

    Monitoring of vancomycin trough concentrations is recommended for pediatric patients in the product label and by several professional societies. However, among a network of freestanding children's hospitals vancomycin therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) practices were reported to be highly variable. In this study, we sought to evaluate whether trends in vancomycin use and TDM changed across a large healthcare delivery system in Utah and Idaho from 2006 to 2012. Children ≤18 years who received ≥2 vancomycin doses were included. Overall, vancomycin TDM was performed during 5,035 (80%) of 6,259 hospital encounters, in which 85,442 doses were administered and 7,935 concentrations were obtained. Across this time period, the median trough concentration increased from 10.9 to 13.7 µg/mL (P vancomycin TDM is commonly performed among children and the majority of abnormal trough concentrations were associated with an appropriate modification to the dosing regimen. © 2014, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

  17. Time series analysis of malaria in Afghanistan: using ARIMA models to predict future trends in incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, Mohammad Y; Lewnard, Joseph A; Parikh, Sunil; Pitzer, Virginia E

    2016-11-22

    Malaria remains endemic in Afghanistan. National control and prevention strategies would be greatly enhanced through a better ability to forecast future trends in disease incidence. It is, therefore, of interest to develop a predictive tool for malaria patterns based on the current passive and affordable surveillance system in this resource-limited region. This study employs data from Ministry of Public Health monthly reports from January 2005 to September 2015. Malaria incidence in Afghanistan was forecasted using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in order to build a predictive tool for malaria surveillance. Environmental and climate data were incorporated to assess whether they improve predictive power of models. Two models were identified, each appropriate for different time horizons. For near-term forecasts, malaria incidence can be predicted based on the number of cases in the four previous months and 12 months prior (Model 1); for longer-term prediction, malaria incidence can be predicted using the rates 1 and 12 months prior (Model 2). Next, climate and environmental variables were incorporated to assess whether the predictive power of proposed models could be improved. Enhanced vegetation index was found to have increased the predictive accuracy of longer-term forecasts. Results indicate ARIMA models can be applied to forecast malaria patterns in Afghanistan, complementing current surveillance systems. The models provide a means to better understand malaria dynamics in a resource-limited context with minimal data input, yielding forecasts that can be used for public health planning at the national level.

  18. On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Zhaohua [Florida State University, Department of Meteorology and Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Huang, Norden E. [National Central University, Research Center for Adaptive Data Analysis Center, Chungli (China); Wallace, John M.; Smoliak, Brian V. [University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA (United States); Chen, Xianyao [State Oceanic Administration, The First Institute of Oceanography, Qingdao (China)

    2011-08-15

    The Earth has warmed at an unprecedented pace in the decades of the 1980s and 1990s (IPCC in Climate change 2007: the scientific basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007). In Wu et al. (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:14889-14894, 2007) we showed that the rapidity of the warming in the late twentieth century was a result of concurrence of a secular warming trend and the warming phase of a multidecadal ({proportional_to}65-year period) oscillatory variation and we estimated the contribution of the former to be about 0.08 C per decade since {proportional_to}1980. Here we demonstrate the robustness of those results and discuss their physical links, considering in particular the shape of the secular trend and the spatial patterns associated with the secular trend and the multidecadal variability. The shape of the secular trend and rather globally-uniform spatial pattern associated with it are both suggestive of a response to the buildup of well-mixed greenhouse gases. In contrast, the multidecadal variability tends to be concentrated over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and particularly over the North Atlantic, suggestive of a possible link to low frequency variations in the strength of the thermohaline circulation. Depending upon the assumed importance of the contributions of ocean dynamics and the time-varying aerosol emissions to the observed trends in global-mean surface temperature, we estimate that up to one third of the late twentieth century warming could have been a consequence of natural variability. (orig.)

  19. Time-Trend in Epidemiological and Pathological Features of Schistosoma-Associated Bladder Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ZAGHLOUL, M.S.; EL-BARADIE, M.; NAZMY, M.; NOUH, A.; MONEER, M.; YOUNIS, A.

    2008-01-01

    To investigate the different emerging trends in the features of bladder cancer along 17 years. Patients and Methods: During a 17-year period (1988- 2004), 5071 epithelial bladder cancer patients underwent radical cystectomy at the National Cancer Institute (NCI), Cairo University, Egypt. The time was divided into 3 time periods to detect changes of the clinico pathologic features of patients in these periods. Results: There was a significant progressive increase in the patients' age with time and decrease in squamous/ transitional ratio, with transient increase in male predominance during the 2nd time period. Moreover, there was a decrease in the well differentiated (grade 1) tumor (p<0.001) and an increase in the frequency of pelvic nodal involvement (p<0.001). Transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) patients were significantly older than those with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (p<0.001). Progressive increase of age with time was evident in TCC, SCC and adenocarcinoma patients. Male to female ratio changed significantly in TCC and SCC. Conclusion: Time trend was confirmed with relative decrease in frequency of SCC and increase of TCC with changes in their pathological details. The differences between their characteristics and that of the Western countries are decreasing.

  20. Trends into rainfall time series of two andes basins of Valle del Cauca (Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisury Cardona-Guerrero

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the goal of detecting changes or trends in registered data of daily rainfall in the basins of rivers Dagua and Cali, located in the south-west of Colombia, in the Valle del Cauca, nine climate extremes indices were calculated using the RClimDex software. For this, precipitation trends were analyzed in 18 rain gauges located in the study area with historical series ranging between 21 and 56 years. Homogeneity tests were made to data to ensure consistency in the information. The results show changes in rainfall, dominated by the increasing trends for almost all indices; however most of the trends do not show high statistical significance. Also, a significant increase in the average annual total rainfall of 15.2 mm (Dagua river basin and 9.1 mm (Cali river basin in the stations located below 1500 msnm was obtained. Moreover, in the stations located at higher elevations, decreases were observed. There is a homogeneous spatial distribution for the most of the indices and similar patterns were found located in defined areas of the study zone, which may affect the runoff production in watersheds in the coming years.

  1. Regional Trends in Electromobility - Regional Study North America

    OpenAIRE

    Turrentine, Tom; Garas, Dhalia

    2015-01-01

    The subproject “Regional Trends in Electro mobility” aims at identifying and analyzing major trends in the field of electro mobility. The trend analysis will monitor research effort and upcoming technologies, policies, products and market developments in different focus regions around the world continuously to enable a systematic analysis of global trends. The regional trend analysis for electro mobility is a major keystone for the project success and therefore cooperation with...

  2. Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerregaard, Peter; Larsen, Christina Viskum Lytken

    2015-01-01

    Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. To analyze the time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970-2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993-1994 and 2005-2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. Suicide rates were higher among men than women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital, a continued increase to very high rates in remote East and North Greenland and a slow increase in villages relative to towns on the West Coast. Suicidal thoughts followed the regional pattern for completed suicides. Especially for women there was a noticeable increasing trend in the villages. The relative risk for suicide was highest among those who reported suicidal thoughts, but most suicides happened outside this high-risk group. Suicide rates and the prevalence of suicidal thoughts remain high in Greenland but different regional trends point towards an increased marginalization between towns on the central West Coast, villages and East and North Greenland. Different temporal patterns call for different regional strategies of prevention.

  3. The demise of multidrug-resistant HIV-1: the national time trend in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vercauteren, Jurgen; Theys, Kristof; Carvalho, Ana Patricia; Valadas, Emília; Duque, Luis Miguel; Teófilo, Eugénio; Faria, Telo; Faria, Domitília; Vera, José; Águas, Maria João; Peres, Susana; Mansinho, Kamal; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Camacho, Ricardo Jorge; Mansinho, Kamal; Cláudia Miranda, Ana; Aldir, Isabel; Ventura, Fernando; Nina, Jaime; Borges, Fernando; Valadas, Emília; Doroana, Manuela; Antunes, Francisco; João Aleixo, Maria; João Águas, Maria; Botas, Júlio; Branco, Teresa; Vera, José; Vaz Pinto, Inês; Poças, José; Sá, Joana; Duque, Luis; Diniz, António; Mineiro, Ana; Gomes, Flora; Santos, Carlos; Faria, Domitília; Fonseca, Paula; Proença, Paula; Tavares, Luís; Guerreiro, Cristina; Narciso, Jorge; Faria, Telo; Teófilo, Eugénio; Pinheiro, Sofia; Germano, Isabel; Caixas, Umbelina; Faria, Nancy; Paula Reis, Ana; Bentes Jesus, Margarida; Amaro, Graça; Roxo, Fausto; Abreu, Ricardo; Neves, Isabel

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Despite a decreasing mortality and morbidity in treated HIV-1 patients, highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) can still fail due to the development of drug resistance. Especially, multidrug-resistant viruses pose a threat to efficient therapy. We studied the changing prevalence of multidrug resistance (MDR) over time in a cohort of HIV-1-infected patients in Portugal. Patients and methods We used data of 8065 HIV-1-infected patients followed from July 2001 up to April 2012 in 22 hospitals located in Portugal. MDR at a specific date of sampling was defined as no more than one fully active drug (excluding integrase and entry inhibitors) at that time authorized by the Portuguese National Authority of Medicines and Health Products (INFARMED), as interpreted with the Rega algorithm version 8.0.2. A generalized linear mixed model was used to study the time trend of the prevalence of MDR. Results We observed a statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of MDR over the last decade, from 6.9% (95% CI: 5.7–8.4) in 2001–03, 6.0% (95% CI: 4.9–7.2) in 2003–05, 3.7% (95% CI: 2.8–4.8) in 2005–07 and 1.6% (95% CI: 1.1–2.2) in 2007–09 down to 0.6% (95% CI: 0.3–0.9) in 2009–12 [OR = 0.80 (95% CI: 0.75–0.86); P < 0.001]. In July 2011 the last new case of MDR was seen. Conclusions The prevalence of multidrug-resistant HIV-1 is decreasing over time in Portugal, reflecting the increasing efficiency of HAART and the availability of new drugs. Therefore, in designing a new drug, safety and practical aspects, e.g. less toxicity and ease of use, may need more attention than focusing mainly on efficacy against resistant strains. PMID:23228933

  4. Assessment of systemic inflammation by time-trends of blood granulocyte count and plasma myeloperoxidase and elastase concentrations following colic surgery in horses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salciccia, Alexandra; Grulke, Sigrid; de la Rebière de Pouyade, Geoffroy; Franck, Thierry; Detilleux, Johann; Serteyn, Didier; Sandersen, Charlotte

    2016-07-01

    To determine changes in blood granulocyte counts and in plasma myeloperoxidase (MPO) and elastase (ELT) concentrations in surgical colic cases, and to determine the relationship between these changes and the surgical procedure performed, occurrence of postoperative ileus, and final outcome. Prospective clinical study conducted over a 12-month period. University teaching hospital. Fifty-three horses undergoing emergency laparotomy and surviving at least 12 hours postoperatively. Blood samples were taken before surgery, during surgery, at the recovery from anesthesia, and then serially until the 150th hour after the first blood sampling. Granulocyte counts were performed by an automated cell hematology analyzer. Specific ELISAs were performed for the MPO and ELT measurements. Mixed models were used to compare the time-trends of the 3 parameters. Taking all horses together, the time-trends of MPO and ELT were not significantly different from each other, but they were significantly different from the granulocyte time-trend. The type of surgical procedure did not influence the time-trends of the 3 parameters. Significant changes in the granulocyte time-trends were associated with postoperative ileus and outcome. Significant changes in the MPO time-trends were associated with outcome. The ELT time-trends were not influenced by ileus or outcome. Granulocyte counts and MPO change over time and are related to the severity of the inflammatory reaction in surgical colic cases. These time-trends may allow evaluation of treatment efficacy in an effort to modulate excessive granulocyte activation and degranulation. © Veterinary Emergency and Critical Care Society 2016.

  5. Variability and trends of carbon parameters at a time series in the eastern tropical Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathalie Lefèvre

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Hourly fCO2 is recorded at a time series at the PIRATA buoy located at 6°S 10°W in the eastern tropical Atlantic since June 2006. This site is located south and west of the seasonal Atlantic cold tongue and is affected by its propagation from June to September. Using an alkalinity–salinity relationship determined for the eastern tropical Atlantic and the observed fCO2, pH and the inorganic carbon concentration are calculated. The time series is investigated to explore the intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual timescales for these parameters, and to detect any long-term trends. At intraseasonal timescales, fCO2 and pH are strongly correlated. On seasonal timescales, the correlation still holds between fCO2 and pH and their variations are in agreement with those of sea surface salinity. At interannual timescales, some important differences appear in 2011–2012: lower fCO2 and fluxes are observed from September to December 2011 and are explained by higher advection of salty waters at the mooring, in agreement with the wind. In early 2012, the anomaly is still present and associated with lower sea surface temperatures. No significant long-term trend is detected over the period 2006–2013 on CO2 and any other physical parameter. However, as atmospheric fCO2 is increasing over time, the outgassing of CO2 is reduced over the period 2006–2013 as the flux is mainly controlled by the difference of fCO2 between the ocean and the atmosphere. A longer time series is required to determine if any significant trend exists in this region.

  6. Assessment of Trend and Seasonality in Road Accident Data: An Iranian Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzaneh Zolala

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Road traffic accidents and their related deaths have become a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Iran has adopted a series of policies and interventions to control the high number of accidents occurring over the past few years. In this study we used a time series model to understand the trend of accidents, and ascertain the viability of applying ARIMA models on data from Taybad city. Methods This study is a cross-sectional study. We used data from accidents occurring in Taybad between 2007 and 2011. We obtained the data from the Ministry of Health (MOH and used the time series method with a time lag of one month. After plotting the trend, non stationary data in mean and variance were removed using Box-Cox transformation and a differencing method respectively. The ACF and PACF plots were used to control the stationary situation. Results The traffic accidents in our study had an increasing trend over the five years of study. Based on ACF and PACF plots gained after applying Box-Cox transformation and differencing, data did not fit to a time series model. Therefore, neither ARIMA model nor seasonality were observed. Conclusion Traffic accidents in Taybad have an upward trend. In addition, we expected either the AR model, MA model or ARIMA model to have a seasonal trend, yet this was not observed in this analysis. Several reasons may have contributed to this situation, such as uncertainty of the quality of data, weather changes, and behavioural factors that are not taken into account by time series analysis.

  7. Trends of studies in some aspects of solid state plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinha, D.K.

    1982-01-01

    Of late, there is a discernible trend to study solid state plasmas. Such a study, by itself, constitutes a broad class of problems but those with dominantly utilitarian aspects have not hitherto been studied in abundance. The utility stems from the nature of media, namely, piezoelectric media or strictly speaking, piezoelectric semiconducting media, in which amplification of waves or otherwise has to be reckoned for wothwhile pursuits in regard to energy conversions. There are both theoretical and experimental dimensions to such studies. The present study restricts itself only to theoretical work. A chronological sequence of extent studies enables one to get at the right perspective. Basic equations along with formulations are set forth. Thermopiezosemiconducting media are also considered on the above lines. Salients and snags of erstwhile studies are pointed out. Possible directions of developments of such studies together with techniques to which they may become amenable are also indicated. (author)

  8. Resistance patterns among multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients in greater metropolitan Mumbai: trends over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalal, Alpa; Pawaskar, Akshay; Das, Mrinalini; Desai, Ranjan; Prabhudesai, Pralhad; Chhajed, Prashant; Rajan, Sujeet; Reddy, Deepesh; Babu, Sajit; Jayalakshmi, T K; Saranchuk, Peter; Rodrigues, Camilla; Isaakidis, Petros

    2015-01-01

    While the high burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) itself is a matter of great concern, the emergence and rise of advanced forms of drug-resistance such as extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB) and extremely drug-resistant TB (XXDR-TB) is more troubling. The aim of this study was to investigate the trends over time of patterns of drug resistance in a sample of MDR-TB patients in greater metropolitan Mumbai, India. This was a retrospective, observational study of drug susceptibility testing (DST) results among MDR-TB patients from eight health care facilities in greater Mumbai between 2005 and 2013. We classified resistance patterns into four categories: MDR-TB, pre-XDR-TB, XDR-TB and XXDR-TB. A total of 340 MDR-TB patients were included in the study. Pre-XDR-TB was the most common form of drug-resistant TB observed overall in this Mumbai population at 56.8% compared to 29.4% for MDR-TB. The proportion of patients with MDR-TB was 39.4% in the period 2005-2007 and 27.8% in 2011-2013, while the proportion of those with XDR-TB and XXDR-TB was changed from 6.1% and 0% respectively to 10.6% and 5.6% during the same time period. During the same periods, the proportions of patients with ofloxacin, moxifloxacin and ethionamide resistance significantly increased from 57.6% to 75.3%, from 60.0% to 69.5% and from 24.2% to 52.5% respectively (pMumbai highlight the need for individualized drug regimens, designed on the basis of DST results involving first- and second-line anti-TB drugs and treatment history of the patient. A drug-resistant TB case-finding strategy based on molecular techniques that identify only rifampicin resistance will lead to initiation of suboptimal treatment regimens for a significant number of patients, which may in turn contribute to amplification of resistance and transmission of strains with increasingly advanced resistance within the community.

  9. Childhood cancer survival in Switzerland (1976-2013): Time-trends and predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schindler, Matthias; Belle, Fabiën N; Grotzer, Michael A; von der Weid, Nicolas X; Kuehni, Claudia E

    2017-01-01

    Population-based studies on childhood cancer survival are key to monitor progress against cancer and to detect potential differences between regions and other subgroups in the population. We investigated time trends and factors associated with childhood cancer survival on a national level in Switzerland, from 1976 to 2013. We extracted data from the population-based Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry of 5,776 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer from 1985 to 2014 in Switzerland. We calculated age-adjusted 5-year survival, defined the annual reduction in risk of death (ARR), and explored associations of survival with clinical and demographic factors. Overall, 5-year survival improved significantly, from 64% in 1976-1983 to 88% in 2004-2013. ARR over the whole period was 4% for all diagnostic groups, greatest for Hodgkin lymphomas (8%), ependymomas (6%), Burkitt's lymphomas (6%) and germ cell tumours (6%). Children treated in hospitals without specialised paediatric cancer centre for leukaemia (HR 12.9), lymphoma (HR 5.0) and neuroblastoma (HR 3.7) were at higher risk of death. In French-speaking Switzerland, risk of death was lower for lymphoma (HR 0.6), CNS tumours (HR 0.7) and neuroblastoma (HR 0.5). Children with migration background had a higher risk of death from all tumours except bone tumours. Childhood cancer survival significantly improved from 1976 to 2013, but there is room for further improvement. Survival rates varied by type of clinical treatment, language region and nationality. All paediatric cancer patients should be referred to a specialised paediatric cancer centre. Further research is needed to intervene and completely eliminate inequalities in survival. © 2016 UICC.

  10. Global Times once Again: Representative Democracy and Countervailing Trends in Iberoamerica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Roniger

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In the late 1990s and early 2000s democratic expectations were replaced by the discredit of democracy. Analyzing this trend, this study looks at the interplay of politics and the economic realm. It discusses the fragility and persistence of democracy and identifies the effect of recent macro-economic policies, the weakening of public goods, processes of dualization in forms of participation in the public domain. It also analyzes contrasting political trends, which involve some innovative projects institutionalizing democratic controls, but also new forms of populism and clientelism buttressed by poverty, unemployment and violence which reinforce the logic of exclusion. Finally, it suggests rethinking the public realm as a focus for the re-creation of sociability and a shared sense of future by improving public performance and efficacy, safeguarding public goods and thus promoting democratic sustainability in Iberoamerica.

  11. National Time Trends in Bullying among Adolescents in the Czech Republic from 1994 to 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarková, Mária; Sigmundová, Dagmar; Kalman, Michal

    2017-07-01

    Bullying in school is a public health concern which continues to be a serious threat to physical and emotional health of children and adolescents. The purpose of this study is to examine trends in bullying behaviour among school-aged children in the Czech Republic. Data were obtained from cross-sectional self-report surveys in the years 1994-2014 as a part of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study (HBSC) from a representative sample of 11-, 13-, and 15-year olds. The highest proportion of children who bullied others (20-47%) occurred during the years 1994 and 1998. The logistic regression models showed significant decreasing trends in bullying others and also in being bullied, regardless of age and gender. The decreasing trend in bullying may be the consequence of a preventive policy in the Czech Republic, but also a change in the understanding of the concept of bullying in society. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

  12. Prevalence and time trends of spina bifida in fourteen cities located in the Liaoning province of northeast China, 2006-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ba, Gen; Wu, Qi-Jun; Chen, Yan-Ling; Huang, Yan-Hong; Gong, Ting-Ting

    2017-03-21

    The present study sought to assess the time trends of spina bifida on the basis of cases identified by the Liaoning Birth Defects Registry in 14 cities from 2006 to 2015. We calculated the prevalence of spina bifida, percent and average change of time trends, and contribution rates of each city. Poisson regression model was used to find the line of best fit for spina bifida prevalence by year, with year as a continuous independent variable. From 2006 to 2015, a total of 2,029 spina bifida cases were identified from 3,248,954 live births (6.25/10,000 live births). We observed statistically significant decreasing trend of overall time trend (11.57% each year). Chaoyang, Fuxin, and Huludao were the top three leading cities, with 14.30/10,000 live births, 9.70/10,000 live births, and 9.20/10,000 live births, respectively. Inversely, the bottom three cities with lowest prevalence were Anshan (2.64/10,000 live births), Dandong (3.43/10,000 live births), and Dalian (3.45/10,000 live births). Of note, we observed significant decreasing trends in over half of these cities (n = 8). In addition, the decreasing trend of overall time trend could be mainly attributed to cities of Shenyang, Fushun, and Jinzhou which accounted for nearly one third. In summary, our study suggested a decreasing time trend of spina bifida during the past decade in the Liaoning province. The findings of this study provide evidence that the nationwide folic acid supplement program has been an effective strategy to prevent spina bifida.

  13. Trends in autopsy-verified dementia prevalence over 29 years of the Hisayama study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honda, Hiroyuki; Sasaki, Kensuke; Hamasaki, Hideomi; Shijo, Masahiro; Koyama, Sachiko; Ohara, Tomoyuki; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Suzuki, Satoshi O; Iwaki, Toru

    2016-08-01

    We investigated the trends in dementia over the past 29 years in the town of Hisayama, Japan using 1266 autopsy specimens. The Hisayama study is a prospective cohort study of lifestyle-related diseases that was started in 1961. Clinical examination of dementia was started in 1985 with five detailed cross-sectional assessments conducted in 1985, 1992, 1998, 2005 and 2012. To examine the trends in dementia, we divided the 1266 autopsy samples into five groups according to the year of death: I (1986-1991, 257 cases), II (1992-1997, 268 cases), III (1998-2004, 318 cases), IV (2005-2011, 296 cases) and V (2012-2014, 127 cases). The prevalence of all-cause dementia significantly increased over time (28.4% in group I, 22.4% in group II, 32.1% in group III, 30.1% in group IV, 51.2% in group V; P for trend <0.001). A similar trend was observed for Alzheimer's disease (AD) (15.2%, 11.9%, 17.3%, 20.6% and 33.1%, respectively; P for trend <0.001). A significant increasing trend was observed in both men and women. A rapid increase in senile dementia of the NFT type (SD-NFT) in recent years was notable. Vascular dementia was the most common type of dementia in men prior to 2004; however, its prevalence decreased over time. Our study revealed that tauopathies, including AD and SD-NFT, significantly increased in the aged Japanese population over the course of this study. The neuritic plaque pathology of AD was associated with metabolic disorders such as insulin resistance and abnormal lipid metabolism, whereas the risk factors for tau pathology remain unclear. Although aging is considered one of the important risk factors accelerating tau pathology, there could be other risk factors associated with lifestyle diseases. © 2016 Japanese Society of Neuropathology.

  14. Demonstrating trend reversal of groundwater quality in relation to time of recharge determined by 3H/3He

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, A.; Broers, H.P.; Grift, B. van der; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2007-01-01

    Recent EU legislation is directed to reverse the upward trends in the concentrations of agricultural pollutants in groundwater. However, uncertainty of the groundwater travel time towards the screens of the groundwater quality monitoring networks complicates the demonstration of trend reversal. We

  15. Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mudelsee

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental problem in paleoclimatology is to take fully into account the various error sources when examining proxy records with quantitative methods of statistical time series analysis. Records from dated climate archives such as speleothems add extra uncertainty from the age determination to the other sources that consist in measurement and proxy errors. This paper examines three stalagmite time series of oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O from two caves in western Germany, the series AH-1 from the Atta Cave and the series Bu1 and Bu4 from the Bunker Cave. These records carry regional information about past changes in winter precipitation and temperature. U/Th and radiocarbon dating reveals that they cover the later part of the Holocene, the past 8.6 thousand years (ka. We analyse centennial- to millennial-scale climate trends by means of nonparametric Gasser–Müller kernel regression. Error bands around fitted trend curves are determined by combining (1 block bootstrap resampling to preserve noise properties (shape, autocorrelation of the δ18O residuals and (2 timescale simulations (models StalAge and iscam. The timescale error influences on centennial- to millennial-scale trend estimation are not excessively large. We find a "mid-Holocene climate double-swing", from warm to cold to warm winter conditions (6.5 ka to 6.0 ka to 5.1 ka, with warm–cold amplitudes of around 0.5‰ δ18O; this finding is documented by all three records with high confidence. We also quantify the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, the Little Ice Age (LIA and the current warmth. Our analyses cannot unequivocally support the conclusion that current regional winter climate is warmer than that during the MWP.

  16. Time in internationally comparative studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scheerens, Jaap; Luyten, Johannes W.; Glas, Cornelis A.W.; Scheerens, J

    2014-01-01

    In this chapter, illustrative internationally comparative data about time at school, time spent in out-of-school programs, and homework/ individual study time are presented. In the first section this is done in a more descriptive way, while in the second and third sections, the association between

  17. [The importance, development situation, and trend of population studies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, H C

    1986-06-01

    Population studies have been well developed in many countries of the world, but not so in Taiwan. Many academic people and general citizens in the Taiwan area are still not very familiar with the significance of population research within and outside of the nation. The purpose of this paper is to help readers understand the importance and development situation and trend of the field of population studies, so that they can be motivated to carry out population research and can become more knowledgeable of institutions and organizations both in Taiwan and abroad. Important concepts of the development and trend of population studies presented in this paper are developed by the author after many years of population study. Most sources used in this paper are secondary, and appear in various population references and documents of population organizations. The paper includes 3 main parts: the importance of population studies, the development of population studies in Taiwan, and international population research and sponsoring organizations and agencies. In the 1st part, the important need for population studies has been comprehensively discussed. In the 2nd part, discussions are extended to 3 subjects government's role on data collection and data analysis, teaching and research developments in acdemic institutions, and the role of private organizations in the promotion and application of population studies. In the 3rd part, more than 70 international institutions and agencies of population studies have been introduced and examined. Partticular attention has been paid to characteristics and functions of 3 organizations: UN Population Divisions, IUSSP, and CICRED. In addition, many other international public and private agencies in different countries have been listed and their locations mentioned. In this paper, discussion has not focused on the development of population in the US. It is because the development status in the US is unusually important and requires a separate

  18. STUDY OF TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING RESEARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Dastkhan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Industrial engineering is an engineering discipline which, because of its multi-disciplinary nature, has played an important role in the development and optimization of different systems at macro and micro levels. In this paper, the results of a research to study the position and trend of Industrial Engineering research in recent years are described. The data from a sample of 7 114 IE-related articles from international journals during the last 27 years were used for the analysis. The results showed that the development of IE in many countries has a strong correlation with their industrial and economic development. However, IE research topics are spreading in other management and engineering departments and so there is a need to redefine the discipline and its specific areas of interest. According to the prediction made using time series analysis, the most favorite fields of IE research in future will be on subjects related to information technology, intelligent systems, optimization, quality, and supply chain management.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Bedryfsingenieurswese is 'n ingenieursdissipline wat vanweë die multi-dissiplinêre aard daarvan 'n belangrike rol gespeel het in die optimisering van verskillende sisteme op makroen mikrovlak. Hierdie artikel hou die resultate voor van 'n navorsingsprojek wat onderneem is om die posisie en rigting van Bedryfsingenieursnavorsing in onlangse jare te bepaal. Die data van 'n monster van 7 114 Bedryfsingenieursverwante artikels wat verskyn het in internasionale joernale oor die afgelope 27 jaar is gebruik vir die ontleding. Die resultate toon dat die groei van Bedryfsingenieurswese in verskeie lande sterk korreleer met industriële en ekonomiese ontwikkeling. Tog blyk dit dat die navorsingsonderwerpe van Bedryfsingenieurswese sprei na ander bestuurs- en ingenieursdepartemente en dus bestaan daar ‘n nodigheid om die dissipline en die spesifieke belangstellingsvelde te herdefinieer

  19. Characterization and adequacy of the use of radiotherapy and its trend in time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palacios Eito, Amalia; Cabezas, Sonia García; Font Ugalde, Pilar; Rivin del Campo, Eleonor; Otero Romero, Ana; Mar Pérez Martín, María del; Roldán Arjona, Juan Manuel; Martínez Paredes, María

    2013-01-01

    Background and purpose: Characterization of radiotherapy activity and its trend over time. Gathering of parameters for future planning of our resources, applicable to similar population areas. Performing a clinical audit of appropriate use of radiotherapy. Material and methods: Analysis of 9782 patients treated between 1998 and 2008. Descriptive statistics of pathologies and social/demographic characteristics. Intention of treatment. The rate of radiotherapy utilization was estimated and compared with those considered optimal. Rate of reirradiation. Results: The average global rate of radiotherapy utilization for the period was 32.7%. It increased by 23% between 1998 and 2008, while the population of the area rose by 1.04%, equaling an average 1.13 irradiations/1000 inhabitants/year. Radiation treatment has increased by 13.6, 2.3, 1.6 and 1.06 times in patients with prostate, breast, rectal and lung cancer, respectively. Eight percent of radiotherapy treatments involve concurrent chemotherapy. The proportion of treatments with palliative intent was 18.2%. The overall underutilization of radiation therapy in our environment was an estimated 13.4%. Conclusions: The grade of adequacy of radiation rates in relation with scientific evidence was globally considered suboptimal, especially in lung cancer. There was an upward trend of irradiation in breast and prostate cancer, tending toward rates considered optimal

  20. Time series models of decadal trends in the harmful algal species Karlodinium veneficum in Chesapeake Bay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chih-Hsien Michelle; Lyubchich, Vyacheslav; Glibert, Patricia M

    2018-03-01

    The harmful dinoflagellate, Karlodnium veneficum, has been implicated in fish-kill and other toxic, harmful algal bloom (HAB) events in waters worldwide. Blooms of K. veneficum are known to be related to coastal nutrient enrichment but the relationship is complex because this HAB taxon relies not only on dissolved nutrients but also particulate prey, both of which have also changed over time. Here, applying cross-correlations of climate-related physical factors, nutrients and prey, with abundance of K. veneficum over a 10-year (2002-2011) period, a synthesis of the interactive effects of multiple factors on this species was developed for Chesapeake Bay, where blooms of the HAB have been increasing. Significant upward trends in the time series of K. veneficum were observed in the mesohaline stations of the Bay, but not in oligohaline tributary stations. For the mesohaline regions, riverine sources of nutrients with seasonal lags, together with particulate prey with zero lag, explained 15%-46% of the variation in the K. veneficum time series. For the oligohaline regions, nutrients and particulate prey generally showed significant decreasing trends with time, likely a reflection of nutrient reduction efforts. A conceptual model of mid-Bay blooms is presented, in which K. veneficum, derived from the oceanic end member of the Bay, may experience enhanced growth if it encounters prey originating from the tributaries with different patterns of nutrient loading and which are enriched in nitrogen. For all correlation models developed herein, prey abundance was a primary factor in predicting K. veneficum abundance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. EPQ model for imperfect production processes with rework and random preventive machine time for deteriorating items and trended demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shah Nita H.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Economic production quantity (EPQ model has been analyzed for trended demand, and units in inventory are subject to constant rate. The system allows rework of imperfect units, and preventive maintenance time is random. A search method is used to study the model. The proposed methodology is validated by a numerical example. The sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the critical model parameters. It is observed that the rate of change of demand, and the deterioration rate have a significant impact on the decision variables and the total cost of an inventory system. The model is highly sensitive to the production and demand rate.

  2. The Use of Categorized Time-Trend Reporting of Radiation Oncology Incidents: A Proactive Analytical Approach to Improving Quality and Safety Over Time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, Anthony; Delaney, Geoff P.; Cassapi, Lynette; Barton, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: Radiotherapy is a common treatment for cancer patients. Although incidence of error is low, errors can be severe or affect significant numbers of patients. In addition, errors will often not manifest until long periods after treatment. This study describes the development of an incident reporting tool that allows categorical analysis and time trend reporting, covering first 3 years of use. Methods and Materials: A radiotherapy-specific incident analysis system was established. Staff members were encouraged to report actual errors and near-miss events detected at prescription, simulation, planning, or treatment phases of radiotherapy delivery. Trend reporting was reviewed monthly. Results: Reports were analyzed for the first 3 years of operation (May 2004-2007). A total of 688 reports was received during the study period. The actual error rate was 0.2% per treatment episode. During the study period, the actual error rates reduced significantly from 1% per year to 0.3% per year (p < 0.001), as did the total event report rates (p < 0.0001). There were 3.5 times as many near misses reported compared with actual errors. Conclusions: This system has allowed real-time analysis of events within a radiation oncology department to a reduced error rate through focus on learning and prevention from the near-miss reports. Plans are underway to develop this reporting tool for Australia and New Zealand.

  3. Time Trends over 16 Years in Incidence-Rates of Autism Spectrum Disorders across the Lifespan Based on Nationwide Danish Register Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Christina Mohr; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Lauritsen, Marlene Briciet

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated time trends and associated factors of incidence rates of diagnosed autism spectrum disorders (ASD) across the lifespan from 1995 to 2010, using data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry. First time diagnosis of childhood autism, atypical autism, Asperger's syndrome, or pervasive developmental…

  4. Nosocomial infection surveillance in a surgical intensive care unit in Spain, 1996-2000: a time-trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizan-Garcia, Maxima; Peyro, Ramon; Cortina, Manuel; Crespo, Maria Dolores; Tobias, Aurelio

    2006-01-01

    To establish the occurrence, distribution, and secular time trend of nosocomial infections (NIs) in a surgical intensive care unit (ICU). Follow-up study in a teaching hospital in Spain. In May 1995 we established an nosocomial infection surveillance system in our surgical ICU. We collected information daily for all patients who were in the ICU for at least 48 hours (546 patients from 1996 through 2000). We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention definitions and criteria for infections. Monthly, we determined the site-specific incidence densities of NIs, the rates of medical device use, and the Poisson probability distribution, which determined whether the case count equalled the number of expected cases (the mean number of cases during the previous year, with extreme values excluded). We compared yearly and monthly infection rates by Poisson regression, using site-specific NIs as a dependent variable and year and month as dummy variables. We tested annual trends with an alternative Poisson regression model fitting a single linear trend. The average rate of catheter-associated urinary tract infections was 8.4 per 1000 catheter-days; that of ventilator-associated pneumonia, 21 per 1000 ventilator-days; and that of central line-associated bloodstream infections, 30 per 1000 central line-days. The rate of urinary tract infections did not change over the study period, but there was a trend toward decreases in the rates of central line-associated bloodstream infections and ventilator-associated pneumonia. An NI surveillance and control program contributed to a progressive decrease in NI rates.

  5. Recent trends in the timing of first sex and marriage among young women in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reda, A Alex; Lindstrom, David

    2014-07-01

    Ethiopia has been characterized by high population growth. Recent social and economic developments have the potential to alter reproductive patterns in the country. Some of these developments include sustained economic growth, urbanization, rapid growth in school enrollments, expansion of primary health care, and a rise in contraceptive access and use. In other national contexts, these developments have been associated with a gradual decoupling of the transition into sexual activity and marriage among young women. We investigate recent trends in the transition into first sex and marriage among three cohorts of Ethiopian women. Using data from the 2000, 2005, and 2011 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) we estimate survival curves and discrete-time hazards models to examine recent trends in age at first sex and first marriage among women ages 20-29. Across the three survey years the median age at first sex has remained relatively stable at 17 years, although the median age at marriage has increased from 17 to 18 years between the 2005 and 2011 surveys. Net of the effects of education and place of residence, there is evidence of a slight trend away from premarital first sex to sexual initiation in the context of marriage. However, among the most educated women and women living in urban areas (who are a small minority of women), there is a much greater tendency to initiate sexual activity outside of marriage compared to women with little schooling and women living in rural areas, and once they have begun sexual activity they tend to wait longer before they get married. We also find evidence in the most recent survey that women who have first sexual intercourse before marriage are delaying marriage more than was the case among earlier cohorts.

  6. Breast cancer screening in Italy: evaluating key performance indicators for time trends and activity volumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giordano, Livia; Castagno, Roberta; Giorgi, Daniela; Piccinelli, Cristiano; Ventura, Leonardo; Segnan, Nereo; Zappa, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Together with the National centre for screening monitoring (ONS), GISMa supports annual collection of data on national breast screening activities. Aggregated data on implementation and performance are gathered through a standardized form to calculate process and impact indicators. Analyzed data belong to 153 local programmes in the period 2006-2011 (2006-2012 for participation rate only). During the whole period, Italian crude participation rate exceeded GISMa's acceptable standard (50%), even though a higher participation in northern and central Italy compared to southern Italy and Islands was observed. Time trend analysis of diagnostic indicators confirmed in 2011 an adequate quality of breast screening performance, especially at subsequent screening. Recall rate at initial screening did not reach the acceptable standard (performance was achieved at subsequent screening. The same trend was followed by the overall detection rate and positive predictive value. They both showed a progressive reduction (from 6.2‰ in 2006 to 4.5‰ in 2011 for DR and from 8.0% in 2006 to 5.2% in 2011 for PPV, respectively) at initial screening and a good, stable trend at subsequent screening. Activity volume analysis shows that in programmes with greater activity (test/year ≥10,000) RR at both initial and subsequent screening has a better performance. This is also true for DR and PPV where programmes with high volumes of activity do better, especially when compared with those that interpret fewer than 5,000 mammograms per year. In spite of a few limits, these results are reassuring, and they reward the efforts made by screening professionals. It is therefore important to continue to monitor screening indicators and suggest, test, and evaluate new strategies for continuous improvement.

  7. Are the time trends in adolescent psychosomatic problems related to functional impairment in daily life? A 23-year study among 20,000 15-16 year olds in Sweden

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Geelen, Stefan M; Hagquist, Curt

    OBJECTIVE: Worldwide there are frequent reports on increasing psychosomatic problems, anxiety, emotional distress, conduct problems, and depression among adolescents. Recently, it was contended that secular studies on such aspects of adolescent mental health can only be evaluated adequately when

  8. Harvesting Collective Trend Observations from Large Scale Study Trips

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksen, Kaare; Ovesen, Nis

    2014-01-01

    To enhance industrial design students’ decoding and understanding of the technological possibilities and the diversity of needs and preferences in different cultures it is not unusual to arrange study trips where such students acquire a broader view to strengthen their professional skills and app...... numbers of students to the annual Milan Design Week and the Milan fair ‘I Saloni’ in Italy. The present paper describes and evaluates the method, the theory behind it, the practical execution of the trend registration, the results from the activities and future perspectives....... and approach, hence linking the design education and the design culture of the surrounding world. To improve the professional learning it is useful, though, to facilitate and organize the trips in a way that involves systematic data collection and reporting. This paper presents a method for facilitating study...

  9. Ozone trends over the United States at different times of day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yingying; Lin, Jintai; He, Cenlin

    2018-01-01

    In the United States, the decline of summertime daytime peak ozone in the last 20 years has been clearly connected to reductions in anthropogenic emissions. However, questions remain about how and through what mechanisms ozone at other times of day have changed over recent decades. Here we analyze the interannual variability and trends of ozone at different hours of day, using observations from about 1000 US sites during 1990-2014. We find a clear diurnal cycle both in the magnitude of ozone trends and in the relative importance of climate variability versus anthropogenic emissions to ozone changes. Interannual climate variability has mainly been associated with the detrended fluctuation in the US annual daytime ozone over 1990-2014, with a much smaller effect on the nighttime ozone. Reductions in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides have led to substantial growth in the US annual average nighttime ozone due to reduced ozone titration, while the summertime daytime ozone has declined. Environmental policymaking might consider further improvements to reduce ozone levels at night and other non-peak hours.

  10. Time trend in hospitalised chronic lower respiratory diseases among Danish building and construction workers, 1981-2009

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tüchsen, Finn; Hannerz, Harald; Mølgaard, Ellen Fisher

    2012-01-01

    To show trends in age-standardised hospital admission ratios (SHR) for chronic lower respiratory diseases, estimated for Danish construction workers over three time periods (1981-1990, 1991-2000, 2001-2009).......To show trends in age-standardised hospital admission ratios (SHR) for chronic lower respiratory diseases, estimated for Danish construction workers over three time periods (1981-1990, 1991-2000, 2001-2009)....

  11. Detecting trends in forest disturbance and recovery using yearly Landsat time series: 1. LandTrendr — Temporal segmentation algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Kennedy; Zhiqiang Yang; Warren B. Cohen

    2010-01-01

    We introduce and test LandTrendr (Landsat-based detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery), a new approach to extract spectral trajectories of land surface change from yearly Landsat time-series stacks (LTS). The method brings together two themes in time-series analysis of LTS: capture of short-duration events and smoothing of long-term trends. Our strategy is...

  12. Investigating the impact of the English health inequalities strategy: time trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, Ben; Higgerson, James; Whitehead, Margaret

    2017-07-26

    Objective  To investigate whether the English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical health inequalities, compared with trends before and after the strategy. Design  Time trend analysis. Setting  Two groups of lower tier local authorities in England. The most deprived, bottom fifth and the rest of England. Intervention  The English health inequalities strategy-a cross government strategy implemented between 1997 and 2010 to reduce health inequalities in England. Trends in geographical health inequalities were assessed before (1983-2003), during (2004-12), and after (2013-15) the strategy using segmented linear regression. Main outcome measure  Geographical health inequalities measured as the relative and absolute differences in male and female life expectancy at birth between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country. Results  Before the strategy the gap in male and female life expectancy between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country increased at a rate of 0.57 months each year (95% confidence interval 0.40 to 0.74 months) and 0.30 months each year (0.12 to 0.48 months). During the strategy period this trend reversed and the gap in life expectancy for men reduced by 0.91 months each year (0.54 to 1.27 months) and for women by 0.50 months each year (0.15 to 0.86 months). Since the end of the strategy period the inequality gap has increased again at a rate of 0.68 months each year (-0.20 to 1.56 months) for men and 0.31 months each year (-0.26 to 0.88) for women. By 2012 the gap in male life expectancy was 1.2 years smaller (95% confidence interval 0.8 to 1.5 years smaller) and the gap in female life expectancy was 0.6 years smaller (0.3 to 1.0 years smaller) than it would have been if the trends in inequalities before the strategy had continued. Conclusion  The English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical inequalities

  13. Trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, body mass index and alcohol consumption in Danish adults with and without diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molsted, Stig; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Snorgaard, Ole

    2014-01-01

    AIMS: In recent decades there has been an increased focus on non-pharmacological treatment of diabetes. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in leisure time physical activity (PA), smoking, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol consumption reported in 2000, 2005 and 2010 by Danish subjects......-sectional analyses from 2000, 2005 and 2010. RESULTS: In participants with diabetes, leisure time PA levels increased from 2000 to 2010: The percentage of those that were physically active increased from 53.5% to 78.2% (pprevalence of daily smokers...... with diabetes. METHODS: Data comprised level of leisure time PA (inactive; moderate active; medium active; high active); smoking; BMI; and alcohol consumption, provided by The Danish Health and Morbidity Surveys. Participants older than 45 years with or without diabetes were included from cross...

  14. Time trends and correlates of late presentation for HIV care in Northern Greece during the decade 2000 to 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metallidis, Simeon; Pilalas, Dimitrios; Skoura, Lemonia; Haidich, Anna-Bettina; Tsachouridou, Olga; Papaioannou, Maria; Chrysanthidis, Theofilos; Bakaimi, Isidora; Antoniadou, Zoe A; Margariti, Apostolia; Malisiovas, Nicolaos; Nikolaidis, Pavlos

    2012-01-01

    Background The aim of our study was to assess the extent of late presentation for HIV care in Northern Greece during the period 2000 to 2010 and to explore correlations aiming to provide guidance for future interventions. Methods HIV-positive patients with no prior history of HIV care at presentation and with a CD4 T cell count within three months from the first confirmatory Western blot result were eligible for this study. Late presentation and advanced HIV disease were defined in concordance with the recommendations of the European Late Presenter Consensus working group. Time trends in presentation status and risk factors linked to late presentation and advanced HIV disease were identified in multivariable logistic regression models. Additional analyses after multiple imputation of missing values were performed to assess the robustness of our findings. Results The status at presentation was evaluated for 631 eligible HIV-positive individuals. Overall, 52.5% (95% CI: 48.6% to 56.4%) of patients presented late for HIV care and 31.2% (95% CI: 27.6% to 34.8%) presented with advanced HIV disease. Time trends were consistent with an improvement in the presentation status of our study population (p<0.001). Risk factors associated with late presentation in multivariable logistic regression were intravenous drug use, heterosexual HIV transmission, immigrant status and age at diagnosis. Conclusions Despite the trend for improvement, a significant proportion of newly diagnosed HIV-positive patients present late for care. Targeted interventions with focus on social groups such as the elderly, persons who inject drugs, immigrants and individuals at risk for heterosexual HIV transmission are mandated. PMID:23305650

  15. Time trend and clinical pattern of extrapulmonary tuberculosis in Serbia, 1993-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pešut Dragica P.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. Increased incidence of extrapulmonary tuberculosis (XPTB is reported worldwide. Serbia is a country in socio-economic transition period with lowmiddle HIV prevalence and intermediate-to-low tuberculosis (TB incidence rate, 100% directly observed treatment (DOT coverage, and mandatory BCG vaccination at birth. The aim of the study was to examine the incidence trend and clinical features of XPTB in Serbia during a 15-year period. Methods. This retrospective observational study included XPTB cases diagnosed in the period between 1st January 1993 and 31st Decembre 2007, according to the reports of the National Referral Institute of Lung Diseases and Tuberculosis in Belgrade and Central Tuberculosis Register. Population estimates with extrapolations were based on 1991 and 2002 census data. Results. While the overall TB incidence rate showed a slight, not significant decreasing trend (p = 0.535, a significant increase was found for XPTB (y = 1.7996 + 0.089x; R2 = 0.4141; p = 0.01. A total of 2,858 XPTB cases (newly diagnosed and 10% relapses gave an average age specific incidence rate of 2.51/100,000 population (95% confidence interval, SD = 0.6182 with 8.9% annual increase. The male-to-female ratio was 0.54. Lymph nodes were most frequently affected site (48.5% followed by genitourinary (20.5%, pleural (12%, and osseo-arthicular (10.3% TB. Treatment outcome was successful in 88.29% of patients (cured and completed, 3.64% died, 5.18% interrupted, 0.57% displaced, and 2.3% unknown. Conclusion. Increasing trend of XPTB incidence rate may be a result of increased morbidity due to still present risk factors, possible higher detection rate in Serbia and better notification. A high coverage of newborns with BCG vaccination at birth might contribute to a decreased number and rare XPTB cases in children.

  16. Potential Impact of Time Trend of Life-Style Factors on Cardiovascular Disease Burden in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yanping; Wang, Dong D; Ley, Sylvia H; Howard, Annie Green; He, Yuna; Lu, Yuan; Danaei, Goodarz; Hu, Frank B

    2016-08-23

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death in China. Evaluation of risk factors and their impacts on disease burden is important for future public health initiatives and policy making. The study used data from a cohort of the China Health and Nutrition Survey to estimate time trends in cardiovascular risk factors from 1991 to 2011. We applied the comparative risk assessment method to estimate the number of CVD events attributable to all nonoptimal levels (e.g., theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution [TMRED]) of each risk factor. In 2011, high blood pressure, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high blood glucose were associated with 3.1, 1.4, and 0.9 million CVD events in China, respectively. Increase in body mass index was associated with an increase in attributable CVD events, from 0.5 to 1.1 million between 1991 and 2011, whereas decreased physical activity was associated with a 0.7-million increase in attributable CVD events. In 2011, 53.4% of men used tobacco, estimated to be responsible for 30.1% of CVD burden in men. Dietary quality improved, but remained suboptimal; mean intakes were 5.4 (TMRED: 2.0) g/day for sodium, 67.7 (TMRED: 300.0) g/day for fruits, 6.2 (TMRED: 114.0) g/day for nuts, and 25.0 (TMRED: 250.0) mg/day for marine omega-3 fatty acids in 2011. High blood pressure remains the most important individual risk factor related to CVD burden in China. Increased body mass index and decreased physical activity were also associated with the increase in CVD burden from 1991 to 2011. High rates of tobacco use in men and unhealthy dietary factors continue to contribute to the burden of CVD in China. Copyright © 2016 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Time trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index in Danish adults with and without COPD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henrik; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Molsted, Stig

    2016-01-01

    Background: Promotion of a healthy lifestyle and non-pharmacological interventions in the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has received great attention in recent decades. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in leisure time physical activity (PA), smoking...... to 2010, Danish individuals aged 25 years with and without COPD, increased their leisure time PA level and reduced smoking. Lower socioeconomic status was associated with a reduced level of PA, smoking and an increased alcohol intake. Future national health campaigns and treatment strategies need......, alcohol consumption and body mass index (BMI) from 2000 to 2010 in Danish individuals with and without COPD. Methods: Analyses were based on data provided by The Danish Health and Morbidity's three cross-sectional surveys from 2000, 2005 and 2010. Data compromised level of leisure time PA, smoking...

  18. Potentially avoidable hospitalizations in five European countries in 2009 and time trends from 2002 to 2009 based on administrative data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thygesen, Lau C; Christiansen, Terkel; Garcia-Armesto, Sandra

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Potentially avoidable hospitalizations in chronic conditions are used to evaluate health-care performance. However, evidence comparing different countries at small geographical areas is still scarce. The aim of the present study is to describe and discuss differences in rates and time......-trends across health-care areas from five European countries. METHODS: Observational, ecological study, on virtually all discharges produced in five European countries between 2002 and 2009. Potentially avoidable hospitalizations were operationally defined as a joint indicator composed of six chronic conditions......). Income and educational level, hospital utilization propensity, and region of residence were found to be associated with avoidable admissions. CONCLUSION: The dramatic variation across countries, beyond age and sex differences, and its consistency over time, implies systemic, although differential...

  19. PREVALENCE OF CHILD MARRIAGE AMONG BANGLADESHI WOMEN AND TREND OF CHANGE OVER TIME.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Md Golam; Mahumud, Rashidul Alam; Saw, Aik

    2016-08-01

    Many Bangladeshi women marry early, and many marry before the legal age of 18 years. This practice has been associated with a higher risk of health and medical morbidities, and also early pregnancy with higher pre- and postnatal complications. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence, and factors associated with, child marriage among Bangladeshi women using multiple binary logistic regression analysis of data from the BDHS-2011. Further analysis on the trend of age at first marriage was performed with additional data sets from previous surveys. The mean and median of ages at first marriage of Bangladeshi women in 2011 were 15.69±2.97 and 15.00 years, respectively. A remarkably high percentage (78.2%) married before the age of 18; of these, 5.5% married at a very early age (before 13 years of age). Binary logistic regression analysis demonstrated that uneducated women were more likely to be married early (pChild marriage was especially pronounced among women with uneducated husbands, Muslims, those with poor economic backgrounds and those living in rural areas. Further analysis including data from previous BDHS surveys showed that child marriage among Bangladeshi women had a decreasing trend from 1993-94 to 2011. These results show that child marriage was very common in Bangladesh, and closely associated with low level of education and low economic status. The decreasing trend in child marriage indicates an improvement over the past two decades but more effort is needed to further reduce and eventually eliminate the practice.

  20. How abnormal is binge eating? 18-Year time trends in population prevalence and burden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchison, D; Touyz, S; González-Chica, D A; Stocks, N; Hay, P

    2017-08-01

    Although findings suggest that binge eating is becoming increasingly normative, the 'clinical significance' of this behaviour at a population level remains uncertain. We aimed to assess the time trends in binge-eating prevalence and burden over 18 years. Six cross-sectional face-to-face surveys of the Australian adult population were conducted in 1998, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2014, and 2015 (N total = 15 126). Data were collected on demographics, 3-month prevalence of objective binge eating (OBE), health-related quality of life, days out of role, and distress related to OBE. The prevalence of OBE increased six-fold from 1998 (2.7%) to 2015 (13.0%). Health-related quality of life associated with OBE improved from 1998 to 2015, where it more closely approximated population norms. Days out of role remained higher among participants who reported OBE, although decreased over time. Half of participants who reported weekly (56.6%) and twice-weekly (47.1%) OBE reported that they were not distressed by this behaviour. However, the presence of distress related to OBE in 2015 was associated with greater health-related quality-of-life impairment. As the prevalence of binge eating increases over time, associated disability has been decreasing. Implications for the diagnosis of disorders associated with binge eating are discussed. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Time-Series Trends of Trace Elements in AN Ice Core from Antarctica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keskin, Siddik Sinan

    Trace element measurements were made by instrumental neutron activation analysis on stratigraphically dated ice core samples from Byrd Station, Antarctica, to determine the concentration levels of natural and anthropogenic substances. Sampling was continuous between 1926 A.D. and 1989 A.D. and selective between 1711 A.D. and 1926 A.D. Twenty-one elements with concentrations above the detection limits were determined. The time period between 1969 A.D. and 1989 A.D. showed an enhanced impact on the Antarctic ice sheets from natural sources in the form of marine and crustal aerosols. A disturbed ocean-atmosphere interface due to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events seems to be a candidate especially for the enhanced marine aerosol deposition in Antarctica. Time-series trend of the concentration of deposited aluminum, which is mainly a crustal aerosol related element, shows a strong negative correlation with the time-series trend of annual average total column ozone concentrations homogenized between the 60^circS and 90^circS latitudes from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) ozone data set. Although the time period is not long enough to draw a strong conclusion (1979-1989), tbe special role of crustal origin clay minerals on cloud nucleation dynamics might be a factor in the heterogeneous stratospheric ozone depletion chemistry through polar stratospheric cloud dynamics, assuming some troposphere-stratosphere mixing of these aerosols. The correlation of antimony and arsenic enrichments with known or suspected volcanic events was established. These marker elements was shown to be useful especially for the identification of specific historical volcanic events with low sulfur emissions. Although a cleat anthropogenic impact was not observed, concentrations of arsenic, chromium. and zinc, which might come from both natural and anthropogenic sources, indicated an increase after 1960's. Principal component factor analysis indicated a possible transition

  2. Silicon photomultiplier timing performance study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamal, Ahmed; Paul, Bühler; Johann, Marton; Ken, Suzuki

    2011-10-01

    Many characteristics of Silicon Photomultipliers can be tuned with temperature and operation voltage. We present preliminary results of a study of the effect of these two operation parameters on the time resolution of large active area Multi-Pixel Photon Counters (MPPCs) manufactured by Hamamatsu. Measurements at -10, 0, and 10 °C at different bias voltages were performed. The time resolution is best at low temperature and high over-voltage. Most significant improvements can be achieved in cases with low number of fired pixels (40 pixels) the effect of temperature and operation voltage becomes smaller. The timing performance still improves with decreasing temperature ( ≈factor of 2) but it hardly depends on the operation voltage. The study shows that especially in applications where only few photons are available for detection a careful optimization of temperature and operation voltage are advisable to obtain optimum timing results with the MPPC.

  3. A Time Study of Plastic Surgery Residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Frank H; Sinha, Indranil; Jiang, Wei; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Eriksson, Elof

    2016-05-01

    Resident work hours are under scrutiny and have been subject to multiple restrictions. The studies supporting these changes have not included data on surgical residents. We studied the workday of a team of plastic surgery residents to establish prospective time-study data of plastic surgery (PRS) residents at a single tertiary-care academic medical center. Five trained research assistants observed all residents (n = 8) on a PRS service for 10 weeks and produced minute-by-minute activity logs. Data collection began when the team first met in the morning and continued until the resident being followed completed all non-call activities. We analyzed our data from 3 perspectives: 1) time spent in direct patient care (DPC), indirect patient care, and didactic activities; 2) time spent in high education-value activities (HEAs) versus low education-value activities; and 3) resident efficiency. We defined HEAs as activities that surgeons must master; other activities were LEAs. We quantified resident efficiency in terms of time fragmentation and time spent waiting. A total of 642.4 hours of data across 50 workdays were collected. Excluding call, residents worked an average of 64.2 hours per week. Approximately 50.7% of surgical resident time was allotted to DPC, with surgery accounting for the largest segment of this time (34.8%). Time spent on HEAs demonstrated trended upward with higher resident level (P = 0.086). Time in spent in surgery was significantly associated with higher resident levels (P time study of PRS residents, we found that compared with medicine trainees, surgical residents spent 3.23 times more time on DPC. High education-value activities comprised most of our residents' workdays. Surgery was the leading component of both DPC and HEAs. Our residents were highly efficient and fragmented, with the majority of all activities requiring 4 minutes or less. Residents spent a large portion of their time waiting for other services. In light of these data, we

  4. Trends in Average Living Children at the Time of Terminal Contraception: A Time Series Analysis Over 27 Years Using ARIMA (p, d, q) Nonseasonal Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumbare, Sachin S; Gosavi, Shriram; Almale, Balaji; Patil, Aruna; Dhakane, Supriya; Kadu, Aniruddha

    2014-10-01

    India's National Family Welfare Programme is dominated by sterilization, particularly tubectomy. Sterilization, being a terminal method of contraception, decides the final number of children for that couple. Many studies have shown the declining trend in the average number of living children at the time of sterilization over a short period of time. So this study was planned to do time series analysis of the average children at the time of terminal contraception, to do forecasting till 2020 for the same and to compare the rates of change in various subgroups of the population. Data was preprocessed in MS Access 2007 by creating and running SQL queries. After testing stationarity of every series with augmented Dickey-Fuller test, time series analysis and forecasting was done using best-fit Box-Jenkins ARIMA (p, d, q) nonseasonal model. To compare the rates of change of average children in various subgroups, at sterilization, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was applied. Forecasting showed that the replacement level of 2.1 total fertility rate (TFR) will be achieved in 2018 for couples opting for sterilization. The same will be achieved in 2020, 2016, 2018, and 2019 for rural area, urban area, Hindu couples, and Buddhist couples, respectively. It will not be achieved till 2020 in Muslim couples. Every stratum of population showed the declining trend. The decline for male children and in rural area was significantly faster than the decline for female children and in urban area, respectively. The decline was not significantly different in Hindu, Muslim, and Buddhist couples.

  5. Trends in average living children at the time of terminal contraception: A time series analysis over 27 years using ARIMA (p, d, q nonseasonal model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sachin S Mumbare

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: India′s National Family Welfare Programme is dominated by sterilization, particularly tubectomy. Sterilization, being a terminal method of contraception, decides the final number of children for that couple. Many studies have shown the declining trend in the average number of living children at the time of sterilization over a short period of time. So this study was planned to do time series analysis of the average children at the time of terminal contraception, to do forecasting till 2020 for the same and to compare the rates of change in various subgroups of the population. Materials and Methods: Data was preprocessed in MS Access 2007 by creating and running SQL queries. After testing stationarity of every series with augmented Dickey-Fuller test, time series analysis and forecasting was done using best-fit Box-Jenkins ARIMA (p, d, q nonseasonal model. To compare the rates of change of average children in various subgroups, at sterilization, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA was applied. Results: Forecasting showed that the replacement level of 2.1 total fertility rate (TFR will be achieved in 2018 for couples opting for sterilization. The same will be achieved in 2020, 2016, 2018, and 2019 for rural area, urban area, Hindu couples, and Buddhist couples, respectively. It will not be achieved till 2020 in Muslim couples. Conclusion: Every stratum of population showed the declining trend. The decline for male children and in rural area was significantly faster than the decline for female children and in urban area, respectively. The decline was not significantly different in Hindu, Muslim, and Buddhist couples.

  6. Time-trends and causes of infant, neonatal and postneonatal mortality in Mexico, 1980-1990

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUSAN VANDALE

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. This article analyzes the time-trends and causes of infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality in Mexico during the 1980’s. Material and methods. Data on infant deaths came from yearly tabulations (1980 to 1990 published by the Mexican government. Time-trends of mortality rates were determined by simple linear regression models. The parallelism test was performed for evaluating similarities in trends in neonatal and postneonatal mortality rates by causes. Results. During the 1980’s, infant mortality rates in Mexico declined from 40.4 to 31.1/1 000 (ß= -0.791. Postneonatal mortality rates showed a strong decrease (ß= -0.892, while neonatal mortality rates were almost stationary (ß= 0.089. Significant rate decreases were observed for Intestinal infections, Pneumonia and influenza and all other causes while Certain perinatal problems, Congenital defects and Nutritional deficiencies increased. No changes were observed in Acute respiratory infections. The neonatal proportional mortality showed an incremental trend accounting for 37.6% in 1980 and ascending to 48.8% in 1990 of the mortality in the first year of life. Conclusions.This analysis indicates that the reduction in infant mortality in Mexico during the 1980’s was due to declining postneonatal mortality while neonatal mortality rates remain almost unchanged.Objetivo. Analizar las tendencias seculares de las tasas de mortalidad infantil (TMI neonatal (TMN y posneonatal (TMP en México de 1980-1990. Material y métodos. La información estudiada fue proporcionada por el Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática. Las tendencias de los indicadores fueron determinadas mediante modelos de regresión lineal y se efectuaron pruebas de paralelismo para evaluar la semejanza en pendientes de TMN y TMP por causas. Resultados. Las TMI se redujeron de 40.4 a 31.1/1 000, (ß= -0.791. Las TMP mostraron un decremento significativo (ß= -0.892, mientras que las TMN

  7. Long-term time trends in human intake of POPs in the Czech Republic indicate a need for continuous monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bányiová, Katarína; Černá, Milena; Mikeš, Ondřej; Komprdová, Klára; Sharma, Anežka; Gyalpo, Tenzing; Čupr, Pavel; Scheringer, Martin

    2017-11-01

    Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) from the group of persistent organic pollutants are detected in human tissues years or even decades after their ban. Exposure to PCBs and OCPs can pose risks to human health. In the present study, we calculated the daily intakes of PCBs and OCPs in the Czech population and investigated the long-term trends of human exposure to POPs. Data on POP concentrations from a 16-year period of breast-milk monitoring were used. A toxicokinetic model with consideration of compound-specific elimination half-lives was used to calculate the mothers' daily intake of PCBs and OCPs representing the intake of POPs by all exposure routes. The calculated intakes were compared with dietary intakes calculated by the Czech National Institute of Public Health. The comparison shows good agreement of both intake estimates with decreasing intake trends of POPs in the Czech population in the time period studied. However, several fluctuations with peaks of higher levels were observed in both datasets which are not typical for the period after the ban of use and production of POPs. The available evidence suggests that the increases in chemical concentrations might be caused by food contamination. The calculated intakes of compounds with longer elimination half-lives, such as higher-chlorinated PCBs, were higher in older mothers. This "memory effect" was already observed in other studies and indicates higher exposure in earlier life periods of the mother. Our results suggest that exposure to POPs is still relevant for the Czech population in the period after the ban of the use and production of POPs (post-ban period), especially via food ingestion, though the intake trends are decreasing. Possible food contamination by POPs in the post-ban period requires further assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Examining time trends in the Oldowan technology at Beds I and II, Olduvai Gorge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimura, Yuki

    2002-09-01

    The lithic analysis of the Bed I and II assemblages from Olduvai Gorge reveals both static and dynamic time trends in early hominids' technology from 1.8 to 1.2 m.y.a. The Bed I Oldowan (1.87-1.75 m.y.a.) is characterized by the least effort strategy in terms of raw material exploitation and tool production. The inclusion of new raw material, chert, for toolmaking in the following Developed Oldowan A (DOA, 1.65-1.53 m.y.a.) facilitated more distinctive and variable flaking strategies depending on the kind of raw materials. The unique characters of DOA are explainable by this raw material factor, rather than technological development of hominids. The disappearance of chert in the subsequent Developed Oldowan B and Acheulian (1.53-1.2 m.y.a.) necessitated a shift in tool production strategy more similar to that of Bed I Oldowan than DOA. However, the evidence suggests that Bed II hominids might have been more skillful toolmakers, intensive tool-users, and engaged in more active transport of stone tools than the Bed I predecessors. Koobi Fora hominids maintained a more static tool-using behavior than their Olduvai counterparts due mainly to a stable supply of raw materials. They differed from Olduvai hominids in terms of less battering of cores, consistent transport behavior, and few productions of side-struck flakes, indicating a regional variation of toolmaking and using practice. However, they shared with Olduvai hominids a temporal trend toward the production of larger flakes from larger cores after 1.6 m.y.a. Increased intake of animal resources and the expansion of ranging area of Homo ergaster would have led to the development of technological organization. Technological changes in the Oldowan industry are attested at Olduvai Gorge, Koobi Fora, and Sterkfontein, suggesting that it was a pan-African synchronous phenomenon, beginning at 1.5 m.y.a.

  9. Worldwide incidence of malaria in 2009: estimates, time trends, and a critique of methods.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard E Cibulskis

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 6, including estimates of, and time trends in, the number of malaria cases, has relied on risk maps constructed from surveys of parasite prevalence, and on routine case reports compiled by health ministries. Here we present a critique of both methods, illustrated with national incidence estimates for 2009. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compiled information on the number of cases reported by National Malaria Control Programs in 99 countries with ongoing malaria transmission. For 71 countries we estimated the total incidence of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax by adjusting the number of reported cases using data on reporting completeness, the proportion of suspects that are parasite-positive, the proportion of confirmed cases due to each Plasmodium species, and the extent to which patients use public sector health facilities. All four factors varied markedly among countries and regions. For 28 African countries with less reliable routine surveillance data, we estimated the number of cases from model-based methods that link measures of malaria transmission with case incidence. In 2009, 98% of cases were due to P. falciparum in Africa and 65% in other regions. There were an estimated 225 million malaria cases (5th-95th centiles, 146-316 million worldwide, 176 (110-248 million in the African region, and 49 (36-68 million elsewhere. Our estimates are lower than other published figures, especially survey-based estimates for non-African countries. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of malaria incidence derived from routine surveillance data were typically lower than those derived from surveys of parasite prevalence. Carefully interpreted surveillance data can be used to monitor malaria trends in response to control efforts, and to highlight areas where malaria programs and health information systems need to be strengthened. As malaria incidence declines around the world, evaluation of control efforts

  10. Time trends and risk factors for diabetes mellitus in dogs: analysis of veterinary medical data base records (1970-1999).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guptill, L; Glickman, L; Glickman, N

    2003-05-01

    The objectives of the study were to identify recent trends in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) in dogs and to identify host risk factors. Veterinary Medical Data Base (VMDB) electronic records of 6860 dogs with a diagnosis of DM (VMDB code 870178500) between 1970 and 1999 were evaluated to determine time trends. Records of 6707 dogs with DM and 6707 frequency matched dogs with any diagnosis other than DM from the same teaching hospitals in the same year, selected as controls, were evaluated for risk factor analysis. The prevalence of DM in dogs presented to veterinary teaching hospitals increased from 19 cases per 10,000 admissions per year in 1970 to 64 cases per 10,000 in 1999, while the case-fatality rate decreased from 37% to 5%. The hospital prevalence of DM was consistently greater over time in older compared with younger dogs with the highest prevalence occurring in dogs 10-15 years of age. Dogs weighing risk of DM compared with heavier dogs. Female dogs had an increased risk of DM compared with males (P<0.001).

  11. Time trends and determinants of acute odontogenic maxillofacial infections in Lithuania: a retrospective national 2009-2013 treatment data audit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasteniene, R; Aleksejūniene, J; Pūriene, A

    2015-12-01

    To examine the distribution of treatment facilities accepting patients with acute odontogenic maxillofacial infections (AOMIs), time trends in incidence and relate these infections with a number of determinants. A national Lithuanian retrospective study gathered data on all patients treated in outpatient/inpatient treatment facilities. Adjusted Incidence Ratios (AIRs) of AOMIs were calculated separately for each type of infection and for each year. Administrative districts (ADs) were grouped into low, medium, and high thirds based on the regional determinants: socio-economic index (R-SEI), access to basic (R-BDCI) or specialized dental care (R-SDCI) and index of systemic diseases (R-ISD). There were no statistically significant geographical differences in the distribution of TFs providing care for patients with AOMIs. Numbers of treatment facilities consistently increased from 2009 to 2013, but there was no consistent increase/decrease in the incidence of AOMIs (-1%). Regions with the highest R-SEI tended to have a higher incidence of AOMIs as compared to regions with medium or low R-SEI. When controlled for other determinants, lower R-BDCI/R-SDCI scores were associated with a higher incidence of AOMIs. High annual incidences (-1% of a total population) were diagnosed and treated for AOMIs, but there was no consistent time trend for these infections.

  12. Syphilis Trends among Men Who Have Sex with Men in the United States and Western Europe: A Systematic Review of Trend Studies Published between 2004 and 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abara, Winston E.; Hess, Kristen L.; Neblett Fanfair, Robyn; Bernstein, Kyle T.; Paz-Bailey, Gabriela

    2016-01-01

    Globally, men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionately burdened with syphilis. This review describes the published literature on trends in syphilis infections among MSM in the US and Western Europe from 1998, the period with the fewest syphilis infections in both geographical areas, onwards. We also describe disparities in syphilis trends among various sub-populations of MSM. We searched electronic databases (Medline, Embase, Global Health, PsychInfo, CAB Abstracts, CINAHL, Sociological Abstracts, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and LILACS) for peer-reviewed journal articles that were published between January 2004 and June 2015 and reported on syphilis cases among MSM at multiple time points from 1998 onwards. Ten articles (12 syphilis trend studies/reports) from the US and eight articles (12 syphilis trend studies/reports) from Western Europe were identified and included in this review. Taken together, our findings indicate an increase in the numbers and rates (per 100,000) of syphilis infections among MSM in the US and Western Europe since 1998. Disparities in the syphilis trends among MSM were also noted, with greater increases observed among HIV-positive MSM than HIV-negative MSM in both the US and Western Europe. In the US, racial minority MSM and MSM between 20 and 29 years accounted for the greatest increases in syphilis infections over time whereas White MSM accounted for most syphilis infections over time in Western Europe. Multiple strategies, including strengthening and targeting current syphilis screening and testing programs, and the prompt treatment of syphilis cases are warranted to address the increase in syphilis infections among all MSM in the US and Western Europe, but particularly among HIV-infected MSM, racial minority MSM, and young MSM in the US. PMID:27447943

  13. 45-Year trends in women's use of time and household management energy expenditure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Archer

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: Relationships between socio-environmental factors and obesity are poorly understood due to a dearth of longitudinal population-level research. The objective of this analysis was to examine 45-year trends in time-use, household management (HM and energy expenditure in women. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Using national time-use data from women 19-64 years of age, we quantified time allocation and household management energy expenditure (HMEE from 1965 to 2010. HM was defined as the sum of time spent in food preparation, post-meal cleaning activities (e.g., dish-washing, clothing maintenance (e.g., laundry, and general housework. HMEE was calculated using body weights from national surveys and metabolic equivalents. RESULTS: The time allocated to HM by women (19-64 yrs decreased from 25.7 hr/week in 1965 to 13.3 hr/week in 2010 (P<0.001, with non-employed women decreasing by 16.6 hr/week and employed women by 6.7 hr/week (P<0.001. HMEE for non-employed women decreased 42% from 25.1 Mj/week (6004 kilocalories per week in 1965 to 14.6 Mj/week (3486 kcal/week in 2010, a decrement of 10.5 Mj/week or 1.5 Mj/day (2518 kcal/week; 360 kcal/day (P<0.001, whereas employed women demonstrated a 30% decrement of 3.9 Mj/week, 0.55 Mj/day (923 kcal/week, 132 kcal/day (P<0.001. The time women spent in screen-based media use increased from 8.3 hr/week in 1965 to 16.5 hr/week in 2010 (P<0.001, with non-employed women increasing 9.6 hr/week and employed women 7.5 hr/week (P<0.001. CONCLUSIONS: From 1965 to 2010, there was a large and significant decrease in the time allocated to HM. By 2010, women allocated 25% more time to screen-based media use than HM (i.e., cooking, cleaning, and laundry combined. The reallocation of time from active pursuits (i.e., housework to sedentary pastimes (e.g., watching TV has important health consequences. These results suggest that the decrement in HMEE may have contributed to the increasing prevalence of obesity in women during

  14. Time trends and changes in the distribution of malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon Region, 2004-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isac da SF Lima

    Full Text Available Recent efforts to reduce malaria incidence have had some successes. Nevertheless, malaria persists as a significant public health problem in the Brazilian Amazon. The objective of this study was to describe changes in malaria case characteristics and to identify trends in malaria incidence in the Brazilian Amazon. This study used data from the Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance and Case Notification Information System from 2004 to 2013. The annual parasite incidence (API was calculated and joinpoint regression was used to assess the trends in API over time. There was a sharp increase in API in the state of Acre, followed by two periods of decrease. Pará also presented inconsistent decreases over the study period. Amapá, Amazonas, Rondônia, and Roraima showed statistically significant decreases over the period. The sharpest decrease occurred in Rondônia, with a reduction of 21.7% in the average annual percent change (AAPC (AAPC: -21.7%; 95% confidence interval: -25.4%, -17.8%; p < 0.05. This panorama of malaria incidence highlights the importance of integrating evidence-based malaria surveillance and control. Malaria is highly preventable, and eliminating its transmission should be a goal in coming decades.

  15. Bowker, L. et al., eds. Unity in diversity? current trends in translation studies. Bowker, L. et al., eds. Unity in diversity? current trends in translation studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Lúcia Vasconcellos

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Unity in Diversity? Current Trends in Translation Studies—a result of the diverse range of phenomena addressed in the Dublin City University Translation Studies (TS Conference (1996—proves to be a timely publication of St. Jerome Publishing at the end of the 20th century. This collection of papers exploring the central and uptodate issue of disciplinary identity in the young academic field of TS is in tune with the present concern in the area, as can be seen in the topic suggested for the international Translation Conference I IATIS Conference:“Disciplinary Identity—Redefining Translation in the 21st Century” (cf. www.iatis.org/content/korea/programme.php, to be held in 2005. Unity in Diversity? Current Trends in Translation Studies—a result of the diverse range of phenomena addressed in the Dublin City University Translation Studies (TS Conference (1996—proves to be a timely publication of St. Jerome Publishing at the end of the 20th century. This collection of papers exploring the central and uptodate issue of disciplinary identity in the young academic field of TS is in tune with the present concern in the area, as can be seen in the topic suggested for the international Translation Conference I IATIS Conference:“Disciplinary Identity—Redefining Translation in the 21st Century” (cf. www.iatis.org/content/korea/programme.php, to be held in 2005.

  16. Time trends for prostate cancer mortality in Brazil and its geographic regions: An age-period-cohort analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braga, Sonia Faria Mendes; de Souza, Mirian Carvalho; Cherchiglia, Mariangela Leal

    2017-10-01

    In the 1980s, an increase in mortality rates for prostate cancer was observed in North America and developed European countries. In the 1990s, however, mortality rates decreased for these countries, an outcome related to early detection of the disease. Conversely, an upward trend in mortality rates was observed in Brazil. This study describe the trends in mortality for prostate cancer in Brazil and geographic regions (North, Northeast, South, Southeast, and Central-West) between 1980 until 2014 and analyze the influence of age, period, and cohort effects on mortality rates. This time-series study used data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and population data from Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The effects on mortality rates were examined using age-period-cohort (APC) models. Crude and standardized mortality rates showed an upward trend for Brazil and its regions more than 2-fold the last 30 years. Age effects showed an increased risk of death in all regions. Period effects showed a higher risk of death in the finals periods for the North and Northeast. Cohort effects showed risk of death was higher for younger than older generations in Brazil and regions, mainly Northeast (RR Adjusted =3.12, 95% CI 1.29-1.41; RR Adjusted =0.28, 95% CI 0.26-0.30, respectively). The increase in prostate cancer mortality rates in Brazil and its regions was mainly due to population aging. The differences in mortality rates and APC effects between regions are related to demographic differences and access of health services across the country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Trends in High Nature Value farmland studies: A systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benedetti Yanina

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Background. Since the High Nature Value (HNV concept was defined in the early 1990s, several studies on HNV farmland has been increasing over the past 30 years in Europe, highlighting the interest by scientific community of HNV farming systems supporting biodiversity conservation. The aim of this study was to evaluate the trends and main gaps on HNV farmland peer-reviewed publications in order to contribute to the effectiveness of future research in this field. Methods. Searches were conducted using the databases Web of SciencesTM and Scopus in order to identify only peer-reviewed articles on HNV farmland, published prior to July 2017. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were developed a priori. Data as year, country, type of document, subject area, taxa studied and biodiversity metrics assessed were extracted and explored in order to analyse the spatial and temporal distribution of the concept, including the main topics addressed in HNV farmland literature. Results. After screening 308 original articles, 90 were selected for this review. HNV farmland studies involved several disciplines, mainly biodiversity and conservation and environmental sciences and ecology. Most peer-reviewed articles focused on HNV farming were conducted in Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal. The main studied taxa were plants and birds. Taxonomic diversity was the biodiversity metric more often used to assess the biodiversity status on HNV farmland areas. A positive correlation was found between HNV farmland area and HNV farmland studies conducted in respective countries. Discussion. The HNV farmland research subject is a relative novel approach, and this systematic review provides a comprehensive overview about the main topics in the HNV farmland peer-reviewed literature contributing to highlight the main gaps and provide some considerations in order to assist the performance of HNV farming systems and conservation policies, addressed to sustain high levels of

  18. Time Trends in Fast Food Consumption and Its Association with Obesity among Children in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Xue

    Full Text Available Study the trends in Western fast food consumption (FFC among Chinese school-age children and the association between FFC and obesity using nationwide survey data.Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted to study the trends in FFC and the associations between FFC and weight status (overweight, obesity and body mass index (BMI z-score.Longitudinal data from families were collected in the 2004 and 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (covering nine provinces throughout China.The analysis included 2656 Chinese children aged 6 to 18 years (1542 and 1114 children in the 2004 and 2009 survey, respectively.FFC (reported having consumed Western fast food in the past three months has increased between 2004 and 2009, from 18.5% to 23.9% in those aged 6-18, and increased more rapidly among those aged 13-17, from 17.9% to 26.3%. The increase was significant in almost all groups by age, sex, family income, and residence. Our cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses did not detect a significant association between FFC and obesity/overweight or BMI z-score (e.g., for BMI z-score, boys: β = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.71, 0.75; girls: β = -0.14, 95% CI: -1.03, 0.75.FFC has increased in Chinese school-age children, especially in older children, boys, and those from low- and medium-income families, rural areas, and East China, but decreased among those from high-income families during 2004-2009. The data did not show a significant association between FFC and obesity.

  19. Time Trends in Fast Food Consumption and Its Association with Obesity among Children in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Hong; Wu, Yang; Wang, Xiaoyu; Wang, Youfa

    2016-01-01

    Study the trends in Western fast food consumption (FFC) among Chinese school-age children and the association between FFC and obesity using nationwide survey data. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted to study the trends in FFC and the associations between FFC and weight status (overweight, obesity and body mass index (BMI) z-score). Longitudinal data from families were collected in the 2004 and 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (covering nine provinces throughout China). The analysis included 2656 Chinese children aged 6 to 18 years (1542 and 1114 children in the 2004 and 2009 survey, respectively). FFC (reported having consumed Western fast food in the past three months) has increased between 2004 and 2009, from 18.5% to 23.9% in those aged 6-18, and increased more rapidly among those aged 13-17, from 17.9% to 26.3%. The increase was significant in almost all groups by age, sex, family income, and residence. Our cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses did not detect a significant association between FFC and obesity/overweight or BMI z-score (e.g., for BMI z-score, boys: β = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.71, 0.75; girls: β = -0.14, 95% CI: -1.03, 0.75). FFC has increased in Chinese school-age children, especially in older children, boys, and those from low- and medium-income families, rural areas, and East China, but decreased among those from high-income families during 2004-2009. The data did not show a significant association between FFC and obesity.

  20. Time Trends in Fast Food Consumption and Its Association with Obesity among Children in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaoyu; Wang, Youfa

    2016-01-01

    Objective Study the trends in Western fast food consumption (FFC) among Chinese school-age children and the association between FFC and obesity using nationwide survey data. Design Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted to study the trends in FFC and the associations between FFC and weight status (overweight, obesity and body mass index (BMI) z-score). Setting Longitudinal data from families were collected in the 2004 and 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (covering nine provinces throughout China). Subjects The analysis included 2656 Chinese children aged 6 to 18 years (1542 and 1114 children in the 2004 and 2009 survey, respectively). Results FFC (reported having consumed Western fast food in the past three months) has increased between 2004 and 2009, from 18.5% to 23.9% in those aged 6–18, and increased more rapidly among those aged 13–17, from 17.9% to 26.3%. The increase was significant in almost all groups by age, sex, family income, and residence. Our cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses did not detect a significant association between FFC and obesity/overweight or BMI z-score (e.g., for BMI z-score, boys: β = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.71, 0.75; girls: β = -0.14, 95% CI: -1.03, 0.75). Conclusions FFC has increased in Chinese school-age children, especially in older children, boys, and those from low- and medium-income families, rural areas, and East China, but decreased among those from high-income families during 2004–2009. The data did not show a significant association between FFC and obesity. PMID:26974536

  1. Temporal trends in non-occupational sedentary behaviours from Australian Time Use Surveys 1992, 1997 and 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chau Josephine Y

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Current epidemiological data highlight the potential detrimental associations between sedentary behaviours and health outcomes, yet little is known about temporal trends in adult sedentary time. This study used time use data to examine population trends in sedentary behaviours in non-occupational domains and more specifically during leisure time. Methods We conducted secondary analysis of population representative data from the Australian Time Use Surveys 1992, 1997 and 2006 involving respondents aged 20 years and over with completed time use diaries for two days. Weighted samples for each survey year were: n = 5851 (1992, n = 6419 (1997 and n = 5505 (2006. We recoded all primary activities by domain (sleep, occupational, transport, leisure, household, education and intensity (sedentary, light, moderate. Adjusted multiple linear regressions tested for differences in time spent in non-occupational sedentary behaviours in 1992 and 1997 with 2006 as the reference year. Results Total non-occupational sedentary time was slightly lower in 1997 than in 2006 (mean = 894 min/2d and 906 min/2d, respectively; B = −11.2; 95%CI: -21.5, -0.9. Compared with 2006, less time was spent in 1997 in sedentary transport (B-6.7; 95%CI: -10.4, -3.0 and sedentary education (B = −6.3; 95%CI: -10.5, -2.2 while household and leisure sedentary time remained stable. Time engaged in different types of leisure-time sedentary activities changed between 1997 and 2006: leisure-time computer use increased (B = −26.7; 95%CI: -29.5, -23.8, while other leisure-time sedentary behaviours (e.g., reading, listening to music, hobbies and crafts showed small concurrent reductions. In 1992, leisure screen time was lower than in 2006: TV-viewing (B = −24.2; 95%CI: -31.2, -17.2, computer use (B = −35.3; 95%CI: -37.7, -32.8. In 2006, 90 % of leisure time was spent sedentary, of which 53 % was screen time. Conclusions Non

  2. Contrasting time trends of organic contaminants in Antarctic pelagic and benthic food webs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brink, van den N.W.; Riddle, M.J.; Heuvel-Greve, van den M.J.; Franeker, van J.A.

    2011-01-01

    We demonstrate that pelagic Antarctic seabirds show significant decreases in concentrations of some persistent organic pollutants. Trends in Adélie penguins and Southern fulmars fit in a general pattern revealed by a broad literature review. Downward trends are also visible in pelagic fish,

  3. Time trends in health inequalities due to care in the context of the Spanish Dependency Law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Salvador-Piedrafita

    2017-01-01

    Conclusions: Between 2006 and 2012, trends in health inequalities attributable to informal care show different trends according to gender and share of responsibility. It is necessary to redesign and implement policies to reduce inequalities that take into account the most affected groups, such as women lone carers. Policies that strengthen the fair social distribution of care should also be adopted.

  4. Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

    2015-01-01

    Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

  5. Mapping Mountain Pine Beetle Mortality through Growth Trend Analysis of Time-Series Landsat Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Liang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Disturbances are key processes in the carbon cycle of forests and other ecosystems. In recent decades, mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae outbreaks have become more frequent and extensive in western North America. Remote sensing has the ability to fill the data gaps of long-term infestation monitoring, but the elimination of observational noise and attributing changes quantitatively are two main challenges in its effective application. Here, we present a forest growth trend analysis method that integrates Landsat temporal trajectories and decision tree techniques to derive annual forest disturbance maps over an 11-year period. The temporal trajectory component successfully captures the disturbance events as represented by spectral segments, whereas decision tree modeling efficiently recognizes and attributes events based upon the characteristics of the segments. Validated against a point set sampled across a gradient of MPB mortality, 86.74% to 94.00% overall accuracy was achieved with small variability in accuracy among years. In contrast, the overall accuracies of single-date classifications ranged from 37.20% to 75.20% and only become comparable with our approach when the training sample size was increased at least four-fold. This demonstrates that the advantages of this time series work flow exist in its small training sample size requirement. The easily understandable, interpretable and modifiable characteristics of our approach suggest that it could be applicable to other ecoregions.

  6. Silicon photomultiplier timing performance study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gamal, Ahmed, E-mail: gamal.ahmed@assoc.oeaw.ac.at [Stefan Meyer Institute for Subatomic Physics of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna (Austria); Al-Azhar University, Faculty of Science, Physics Department, Cairo (Egypt); Paul, Buehler; Johann, Marton; Ken, Suzuki [Stefan Meyer Institute for Subatomic Physics of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna (Austria)

    2011-10-01

    Many characteristics of Silicon Photomultipliers can be tuned with temperature and operation voltage. We present preliminary results of a study of the effect of these two operation parameters on the time resolution of large active area Multi-Pixel Photon Counters (MPPCs) manufactured by Hamamatsu. Measurements at -10, 0, and 10 deg. C at different bias voltages were performed. The time resolution is best at low temperature and high over-voltage. Most significant improvements can be achieved in cases with low number of fired pixels (<10pixels). Between the worst and best case among the considered conditions a factor of five improvement was observed. In cases with large number of fired pixels (>40pixels) the effect of temperature and operation voltage becomes smaller. The timing performance still improves with decreasing temperature ({approx}factor of 2) but it hardly depends on the operation voltage. The study shows that especially in applications where only few photons are available for detection a careful optimization of temperature and operation voltage are advisable to obtain optimum timing results with the MPPC.

  7. Time trends in adult chronic disease inequalities by education in Brazil: 1998-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beltrán-Sánchez, Hiram; Andrade, Flavia C D

    2016-11-17

    Socioeconomic differences in health in Brazil are largely driven by differences in educational attainment. In this paper, we assess whether educational gradients in chronic disease prevalence have narrowed in Brazil from 1998 to 2013, a period of a booming economy accompanied by major investments in public health in the country. Individual-level data came from the 1998, 2003 and 2008 Brazilian National Household Survey and the 2013 National Health Survey. We first evaluate age-standardized prevalence rates of chronic disease by education and second, we predict the estimated prevalence rate between those in low vs. high education to assess if relative changes in chronic disease have narrowed over time. Third, we estimate the slope index of inequality (SII) that evaluates the absolute change in the predicted prevalence of a disease between those in low vs. high education. Finally, we tested for statistically significant time trends in adult chronic disease inequalities by education. Prevalence of diabetes and hypertension have increased over the period, whereas the prevalence of heart disease decreased. Brazilian adults with no education had higher levels of diabetes, hypertension and heart disease than those with some college or more. Adjusted prevalence for hypertension and heart disease indicate some progress in reducing educational disparities over time. However, for diabetes, adjusted results show a continuously increasing educational disparity from 1998 to 2013. By 2013, individuals with no education had about two times higher diabetes prevalence than those with higher education with larger disparity among women. Results confirm findings from previous work that educational inequalities in health are large in Brazil but also provide evidence suggesting some improvement in narrowing these differentials in recent times. Recent policies aiming at reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking and alcohol consumption, and increasing physical activity and consumption of

  8. Interpreting time trends and biomagnification of PCBs in the Baltic region using the equilibrium lipid partitioning approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nfon, Erick; Cousins, Ian T.

    2006-01-01

    Multi-year monitoring data for PCBs in abiotic media and biota collected from the Baltic region were compiled into a database and analyzed using the equilibrium lipid partitioning (ELP) approach to study temporal trends as well as to investigate food web biomagnification. Statistically significant reductions in ELP concentrations between 1987 and 2001 were observed in guillemots, air, and some fish species and a general, but not always statistically significant decline in concentrations was observed throughout the Baltic ecosystem. Estimated clearance half-lives ranged from 2.7-10.7 years. The database contained concentrations for a range of different Baltic species, which comprise a well-known Baltic food web. It was possible to derive the trophic position of the species in this food web and relate them to ELP concentrations. A significant positive correlation between ELP concentrations and trophic position was obtained. Estimated food web magnification factors ranged between 1.9 and 5.1 for selected congeners. - The equilibrium lipid partitioning approach is applied to a large Baltic database of PCB concentrations in abiotic and biota media to investigate time trends and biomagnification

  9. Time trends in hospital admissions and mortality due to abdominal aortic aneurysms in France, 2002-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert, M; Juillière, Y; Gabet, A; Kownator, S; Olié, V

    2017-05-01

    Abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) are serious disease with a high fatality rate but recent epidemiologic data showed a decrease of AAA mortality. Our objective was to estimate, in France, the hospitalization, inhospital mortality and mortality rates due to AAA and to analyze their trends over time. Hospitalization data were extracted from the hospital discharge summaries in the national database between 2002 and 2013. The analysis covered all patients hospitalized for AAA as a principal diagnosis. During the same period, all death certificates mentioning AAA as an initial cause of death were included in the study. Crude and standardized rates were calculated according to age and sex. Poisson regression was used to analyze the average annual percent change. In 2013, there were 8853 patients hospitalized for AAA in France (7986 unruptured and 867 ruptured). Between 2002 and 2013, the rate of patients hospitalized for unruptured AAA decreased slightly in men (-5.0%) but increased in women (+5.2%). By contrast, the rate of patients hospitalized for ruptured AAA has decreased by >20% in men and women. The proportion of endovascular treatment of unruptured AAA rose from <10% in 2005 to 35% in women and 40% in men in 2013. In 2013, 939 deaths from AAA were recorded. Mortality for this disease declined significantly from 2002 to 2013 in men and women. The unfavorable epidemiological trends in women and important evolution of the management of AAA call for an epidemiological surveillance of this disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Who is using snus? - Time trends, socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of snus users in the ageing Swedish population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norberg Margareta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The prevalence of smoking in Sweden has decreased in recent decades, and is now among the lowest in the world. During the same period, the use of Swedish moist oral snuff, a smokeless tobacco called snus, has increased. Few studies have evaluated time trends of the socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of snus users in Sweden. This paper contributes to filling that gap. Methods This study utilized the Linnaeus Database, which links national registers with comprehensive individual data on socioeconomic status (SES to health data from a large ongoing health survey, the Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP. The VIP targets the entire middle-aged population of Västerbotten county at ages 40, 50 and 60 years with yearly cross-sectional surveys including self-reported data on tobacco habits. Time trends of snus use among 92,563 VIP-participants across different areas of residence and smoking groups were investigated graphically. Logistic regression was performed to estimate the associations between SES and geographical variables and current use versus non-use of snus. Results Overall, in parallel to decreasing smoking, the increasing trend of snus use in this middle-aged population continues, particularly in 40-year-olds. In both genders, the highest prevalence of snus use was observed among previous smokers. The prevalence of snus use also increased over time among smokers, and was consistently higher compared to those who had never smoked. Among males - both those who had never smoked and previous smokers - low education (OR 1.21, 95%CI 1.06-1.40 and OR 1.28, 95%CI 1.14-1.43, living alone (OR 1.16, 95%CI 1.07-1.27 and OR 1.13, 95%ci 1.04-1.23, low income and living in rural areas was associated with using snus, while this was not seen among male current smokers. Among women, living alone was associated with using snus irrespective of smoking habits. Among female smokers, the OR for snus use increased with higher

  11. Local Vegetation Trends in the Sahel of Mali and Senegal Using Long Time Series FAPAR Satellite Products and Field Measurement (1982–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Brandt

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Local vegetation trends in the Sahel of Mali and Senegal from Geoland Version 1 (GEOV1 (5 km and the third generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS3g (8 km Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR time series are studied over 29 years. For validation and interpretation of observed greenness trends, two methods are applied: (1 a qualitative approach using in-depth knowledge of the study areas and (2 a quantitative approach by time series of biomass observations and rainfall data. Significant greening trends from 1982 to 2010 are consistently observed in both GEOV1 and GIMMS3g FAPAR datasets. Annual rainfall increased significantly during the observed time period, explaining large parts of FAPAR variations at a regional scale. Locally, GEOV1 data reveals a heterogeneous pattern of vegetation change, which is confirmed by long-term ground data and site visits. The spatial variability in the observed vegetation trends in the Sahel area are mainly caused by varying tree- and land-cover, which are controlled by human impact, soil and drought resilience. A large proportion of the positive trends are caused by the increment in leaf biomass of woody species that has almost doubled since the 1980s due to a tree cover regeneration after a dry-period. This confirms the re-greening of the Sahel, however, degradation is also present and sometimes obscured by greening. GEOV1 as compared to GIMMS3g made it possible to better characterize the spatial pattern of trends and identify the degraded areas in the study region.

  12. The statistics of the time segments of low-frequency microseisms: Trends and synchronization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyubushin, A. A.

    2010-06-01

    The problem of identifying the effects of synchronization in the parameters of low-frequency microseismic noise from the data of 77 stations belonging to the F-net broadband seismograph network in Japan for the period from the beginning of 1997 through August, 2009 is considered. The vertical components measured initially with a sampling rate of one second and subsequently converted into the signals sampled at 1 minute intervals by means of averaging and decimation are used in the analysis. Six statistics are taken as the parameters: the support width of the multifractal singularity spectrum; the generalized Hurst exponent; the asymmetry coefficient of the spectrum of singularity; the logarithmic variance; the spectral exponent; and the linear predictability index. These parameters are calculated from the realizations contained within consecutive daily time intervals. When using the moving time window with a width of one year for evaluating the multiple correlation, the daily variations in the median values of the statistics of the noise measured at five spatial clusters of stations exhibit a stable increase in the synchronization not long before the Hokkaido earthquake (September 25, 2003; M = 8.3), subsequently passing to the new level of high synchronization. Based on the analysis of the trends in the index of linear predictability it turned out possible to estimate the beginning of the enhancement in the synchronization with rather high accuracy as the middle of 2002. The effect revealed for the variations in the different parameters of microseisms is an independent argument for the earlier conclusion about the synchronization in the field of the microseismic noise on the Japan Islands.

  13. Gender influence in influenza vaccine uptake in Spain: time trends analysis (1995-2006).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez-García, Rodrigo; Hernández-Barrera, Valentín; de Andres, Ana Lopez; Jimenez-Trujillo, Isabel; Esteban-Hernández, Jesus; Carrasco-Garrido, Pilar

    2010-08-31

    This study aims to analyze gender differences in influenza vaccine coverage and predictors of vaccine uptake in Spain from year 1995 to 2006. We used data obtained from the Spanish National Health Surveys (NHSS) conducted in 1995, 1997, 2001, 2003 and 2006. Only subjects for whom the vaccine was recommended in Spain (age >or=65 years and trends 1995/1997-2006 showed that the coverage has improved for women (OR 1.12 CI 95% 1.09-1.16) and men (OR 1.11 CI 95% 1.06-1.15). Over the whole study period men had 12% greater probability of having received the vaccine. We conclude that in Spain there are significant gender differences in influenza vaccine uptake with lower coverage among women. These differences have remained throughout all years studied. We suggest that possible explanations for the lower uptake among women could include less social support, differences in the health status and provider bias. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Time Trends and Educational Inequalities in Out-of-Hospital Coronary Deaths in Norway 1995-2009

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sulo, Enxhela; Nygård, Ottar; Vollset, Stein Emil

    2017-01-01

    ), or tertiary (college/university). Educational gradients in OHCD were explored using Poisson regression, stratified by sex and age (...BACKGROUND: Recent time trends and educational gradients characterizing out-of-hospital coronary deaths (OHCD) are poorly described. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified all deaths from coronary heart disease occurring outside the hospital in Norway during 1995 to 2009. Time trends were explored...... using Poisson regression analysis with year as the independent, continuous variable. Information on the highest achieved education was obtained from The National Education Database and classified as primary (up to 10 years of compulsory education), secondary (high school or vocational school...

  15. Thyroid Cancer Incidence in New Jersey: Time Trend, Birth Cohort and Socioeconomic Status Analysis (1979-2006)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roche, L.M.; Niu, X.; Pawlish, K.S.; Henry, K.A.

    2011-01-01

    The study's purpose was to investigate thyroid cancer incidence time trends, birth cohort effects, and association with socioeconomic status (SES) in New Jersey (NJ), a high incidence state, using NJ State Cancer Registry data. Thyroid cancer incidence rates in each sex, nearly all age groups, two major histologists and all stages significantly increased between 1979 and 2006. For each sex, age-specific incidence rates began greatly increasing in the 1924 birth cohort and, generally, the highest thyroid cancer incidence rate for each five-year age group occurred in the latest birth cohort and diagnosis period. Thyroid cancer incidence rates were significantly higher in NJ Census tracts with higher SES and in counties with a higher percentage of insured residents. These results support further investigation into the relationship between rising thyroid cancer incidence and increasing population exposure to medical (including diagnostic) radiation, as well as widespread use of more sensitive diagnostic techniques

  16. Thyroid Cancer Incidence in New Jersey: Time Trend, Birth Cohort and Socioeconomic Status Analysis (1979–2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa M. Roche

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The study's purpose was to investigate thyroid cancer incidence time trends, birth cohort effects, and association with socioeconomic status (SES in New Jersey (NJ, a high incidence state, using NJ State Cancer Registry data. Thyroid cancer incidence rates in each sex, nearly all age groups, two major histologies and all stages significantly increased between 1979 and 2006. For each sex, age-specific incidence rates began greatly increasing in the 1924 birth cohort and, generally, the highest thyroid cancer incidence rate for each five-year age group occurred in the latest birth cohort and diagnosis period. Thyroid cancer incidence rates were significantly higher in NJ Census tracts with higher SES and in counties with a higher percentage of insured residents. These results support further investigation into the relationship between rising thyroid cancer incidence and increasing population exposure to medical (including diagnostic radiation, as well as widespread use of more sensitive diagnostic techniques.

  17. Secular Trends on Birth Parameters, Growth, and Pubertal Timing in Girls with Turner Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joachim Woelfle

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundWhether children with chromosomal disorders of growth and puberty are affected by secular trends (STs as observed in the general population remains unanswered, but this question has relevance for expectations of spontaneous development and treatment responses.ObjectivesThe aim of the study was to evaluate STs in birth parameters, growth, and pubertal development in girls with Turner syndrome (TS.Study designRetrospective analysis of KIGS data (Pfizer International Growth Database. We included all TS patients who entered KIGS between 1987 and 2012 and were born from 1975 to 2004, who were prepubertal and growth treatment naïve at first entry (total number: 7,219. Pretreatment height and ages at the start of treatment were compared across 5-year birth year groups, with subgroup analyses stratified by induced or spontaneous puberty start.ResultsWe observed significant STs across the birth year groups for birth weight [+0.18 SD score (SDS, p < 0.001], pretreatment height at mean age 8 years (+0.73 SDS, p < 0.001, height at the start of growth hormone (GH therapy (+0.38 SDS, p < 0.001 and start of puberty (+0.42 SDS, p < 0.001. Spontaneous puberty onset increased from 15 to 30% (p < 0.001. Mean age at the start of GH treatment decreased from 10.8 to 7.4 years (−3.4 years; p < 0.001, and substantial declines were seen in ages at onset of spontaneous and induced puberty (−2.0 years; p < 0.001 and menarche (−2.1 years; p < 0.001.ConclusionEnvironmental changes leading to increased height and earlier and also more common, spontaneous puberty are applicable in TS as in normal girls. In addition, greater awareness for TS may underlie trends to earlier start of GH therapy and induction of puberty at a more physiological age.

  18. Footprint and imprint: an ecologic time-trend analysis of cardiovascular publications in general and specialty journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldridge, Abigail S; Huffman, Mark D; Bloomfield, Gerald S; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

    2014-06-01

    Studies have demonstrated strong associations between publication source and citations, as well as investigatory analysis of collaboration effects, in general and medical literature, but are limited to specific journals or short duration of time. This study sought to analyze time trends in cardiovascular research publications in leading general and specialty journals and to determine the association between collaboration and citation index. Cardiovascular publications were retrieved from Web of Knowledge by a cardiovascular bibliometric filter, and annual publication volumes in 8 general and specialty journals were compared. Univariable linear regression models were used to determine global and journal-specific trends for overall publication, cardiovascular publication, proportion of cardiovascular publication, collaboration, and citations. Cardiovascular publications increased (1999 to 2008) by 36% and number of sources by 74%. Volume increased in European Heart Journal (beta: 18.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.6 to 26.3) and decreased in Circulation (beta: -42.9, 95% CI: -79.3 to -6.5), Annals of Internal Medicine (beta: -1.9, 95% CI: -3.5 to -0.3), and Lancet (beta: -11.2, 95% CI: -14.7 to -7.8). Number of contributing countries increased in 3 journals: BMJ (beta: 0.8, 95% CI: 0.2 to 1.5), European Heart Journal (beta: -1.2, 95% CI: 0.8 to 1.7), and New England Journal of Medicine (beta: 1.6, 95% CI: 0.6 to 2.7). Fraction of collaborative publications increased (beta: 1.1 to 2.9) in all but Annals of Internal Medicine. Collaboration was associated with a higher median actual citation index (p journals. Contribution by country in selected journals was disproportionate and under-represents total cardiovascular research in low- and middle-income countries. Copyright © 2014 World Heart Federation (Geneva). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Special study for the statistical evaluation of groundwater data trends. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-05-01

    Analysis of trends over time in the concentrations of chemicals in groundwater at Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project sites can provide valuable information for monitoring the performance of disposal cells and the effectiveness of groundwater restoration activities. Random variation in data may obscure real trends or may produce the illusion of a trend where none exists, so statistical methods are needed to reliably detect and estimate trends. Trend analysis includes both trend detection and estimation. Trend detection uses statistical hypothesis testing and provides a yes or no answer regarding the existence of a trend. Hypothesis tests try to reach a balance between false negative and false positive conclusions. To quantify the magnitude of a trend, estimation is required. This report presents the statistical concepts that are necessary for understanding trend analysis. The types of patterns most likely to occur in UMTRA data sets are emphasized. Two general approaches to analyzing data for trends are proposed and recommendations are given to assist UMTRA Project staff in selecting an appropriate method for their site data. Trend analysis is much more difficult when data contain values less than the reported laboratory detection limit. The complications that arise are explained. This report also discusses the impact of data collection procedures on statistical trend methods and offers recommendations to improve the efficiency of the methods and reduce sampling costs. Guidance for determining how many sampling rounds might be needed by statistical methods to detect trends of various magnitudes is presented. This information could be useful in planning site monitoring activities

  20. Study of trends in the trucking market in modern conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.Popovych

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the features of the transport services market in accordance with its segmentation from the position of statistics on the field of automotive freight. The tendencies of development dynamics and road trucking transport market structure, and particularly the impact of transportation logistics market, including foreign trade cargo traffic of road transport, on the basic trends and the impact of logistics infrastructure development for aggregate indicators of development of transport communications, the size and dynamics of development, market compatibility on investment attractiveness. Balance of consumer, wholesale and logistics market in Ukraine, having similar development trends are established. Market logistics of trucking transport services have a steady trend of development in an objective decline in growth. The necessity of modernization policies in the transport sector at the state level as a software-oriented transport sector investment resources of the economy, taking into account that the share of road transport in the transport system of the country demonstrates the dynamic development with a positive trend in demand for transportation of goods.

  1. Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

    2018-03-01

    Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

  2. Out-of-pocket expenditures for primary health care in Tajikistan: a time-trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Joëlle; Wyss, Kaspar; Gulyamova, Zulfiya M; Sharipov, Soleh

    2013-03-18

    Aligned with the international call for universal coverage of affordable and quality health care, the government of Tajikistan is undertaking reforms of its health system aiming amongst others at reducing the out-of-pocket expenditures (OPE) of patients seeking care. Household surveys were conducted in 2005, 2007, 2008 and 2011 to explore the scale and determinants of OPE of users in four district of Tajikistan, where health care is legally free of charge at the primary level. Using the data from four cross-sectional household surveys conducted between 2005 and 2011, time trends in OPE for consultation fees, drugs and transport costs of adult users of family medicine services were analysed. To investigate differences along the economic status, an asset index was constructed using principal component analysis. Adjusted for inflation, OPE for primary care have substantially increased in the period 2005 to 2011. While the proportion of patients reporting the payment of informal consultation fees to providers and their amount were constant over time, the proportion of patients reporting expenditures for drugs has increased, and the median amounts have doubled from 5.3 US$ to 10.7 US$. Thus, the expenditures on medicine represent the biggest financial burden for patients accessing a primary care facility. Regression models showed that in 2011 patients from the most remote district with spread-out villages reported significant higher expenditures on medicine. Besides the steady increase in the median amount for OPE, the proportion of patients reporting making an informal payment to their care provider showed great variations across district of residence (between 20% and 73%) and economic status (between 33% among the 'worst-off' group and 68% among the 'better-off' group). In a context of limited governmental funds allocated to health and financing reforms aiming to improve financial access to primary care, the present paper indicates that in Tajikistan OPE - especially

  3. Rate and time trend of perinatal, infant, maternal mortality, natality and natural population growth in kosovo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azemi, Mehmedali; Gashi, Sanije; Berisha, Majlinda; Kolgeci, Selim; Ismaili-Jaha, Vlora

    2012-01-01

    THE AIM OF WORK HAS BEEN THE PRESENTATION OF THE RATE AND TIME TRENDS OF SOME INDICATORS OF THE HEATH CONDITION OF MOTHERS AND CHILDREN IN KOSOVO: fetal mortality, early neonatal mortality, perinatal mortality, infant mortality, natality, natural growth of population etc. The treated patients were the newborn and infants in the post neonatal period, women during their pregnancy and those 42 days before and after the delivery. THE DATA WERE TAKEN FROM: register of the patients treated in the Pediatric Clinic of Prishtina, World Health Organization, Mother and Child Health Care, Reproductive Health Care, Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kosovo, Statistical Department of Kosovo, the National Institute of Public Health and several academic texts in the field of pediatrics. Some indicators were analyzed in a period between year 1945-2010 and 1950-2010, whereas some others were analyzed in a time period between year 2000 and 2011. The perinatal mortality rate in 2000 was 29.1‰, whereas in 2011 it was 18.7‰. The fetal mortality rate was 14.5‰ during the year 2000, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰, in 2000 the early neonatal mortality was 14.8‰, in 2011 it was 7.5‰. The infant mortality in Kosovo was 164‰ in 1950, whereas in 2010 it was 20.5‰. The most frequent causes of infant mortality have been: lower respiratory tract infections, acute infective diarrhea, perinatal causes, congenital malformations and unclassified conditions. Maternal death rate varied during this time period. Maternal death in 2000 was 23 whereas in 2010 only two cases were reported. Regarding the natality, in 1950 it reached 46.1 ‰, whereas in 2010 it reached 14‰, natural growth of population rate in Kosovo was 29.1‰ in 1950, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰. Perinatal mortality rate in Kosovo is still high in comparison with other European countries (Turkey and Kyrgyzstan have the highest perinatal mortality rate), even though it is in a continuous decrease. Infant mortality

  4. Rate and Time Trend of Perinatal, Infant, Maternal Mortality, Natality and Natural Population Growth in Kosovo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azemi, Mehmedali; Gashi, Sanije; Berisha, Majlinda; Kolgeci, Selim; Ismaili-Jaha, Vlora

    2012-01-01

    Aim: The aim of work has been the presentation of the rate and time trends of some indicators of the heath condition of mothers and children in Kosovo: fetal mortality, early neonatal mortality, perinatal mortality, infant mortality, natality, natural growth of population etc. The treated patients were the newborn and infants in the post neonatal period, women during their pregnancy and those 42 days before and after the delivery. Methods: The data were taken from: register of the patients treated in the Pediatric Clinic of Prishtina, World Health Organization, Mother and Child Health Care, Reproductive Health Care, Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kosovo, Statistical Department of Kosovo, the National Institute of Public Health and several academic texts in the field of pediatrics. Some indicators were analyzed in a period between year 1945-2010 and 1950-2010, whereas some others were analyzed in a time period between year 2000 and 2011. Results: The perinatal mortality rate in 2000 was 29.1‰, whereas in 2011 it was 18.7‰. The fetal mortality rate was 14.5‰ during the year 2000, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰, in 2000 the early neonatal mortality was 14.8‰, in 2011 it was 7.5‰. The infant mortality in Kosovo was 164‰ in 1950, whereas in 2010 it was 20.5‰. The most frequent causes of infant mortality have been: lower respiratory tract infections, acute infective diarrhea, perinatal causes, congenital malformations and unclassified conditions. Maternal death rate varied during this time period. Maternal death in 2000 was 23 whereas in 2010 only two cases were reported. Regarding the natality, in 1950 it reached 46.1 ‰, whereas in 2010 it reached 14‰, natural growth of population rate in Kosovo was 29.1‰ in 1950, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰. Conclusion: Perinatal mortality rate in Kosovo is still high in comparison with other European countries (Turkey and Kyrgyzstan have the highest perinatal mortality rate), even though it is in a

  5. Trend of environmental radiation protection and its current related studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Satoshi

    2011-01-01

    Reviewed are the international trend of environmental radiation protection (ERP), Japanese studies of radiation effects on environmental livings from aspects of ecosystem to molecular level, and the future view. ERP is particularly closed up toward promotion after its first involvement in the general global conference, UN Conference on Environment and Development (1992). International Commission of Radiological Protection (ICRP) has conducted such actions for the environment as establishing protection essentials for non-human species (2003), organizing Committee 5 (2005), and defining Reference Animals and Plants (2008) where Derived Consideration Reference Levels of 0.1-100 mGy/d are proposed, together with cooperative actions by United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)/Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and European projects. Japanese NIRS is now enrolled in the project of Environmental Modeling for Radiation Safety-II (IAEA). Major Japanese studies of radiation effects on environmental livings have utilized killifish (medaka: Oryzias latipes), springtail, earthworm, nematode, cultured plant cell (cedar), poplar, etc. Studies of the radiation effect on microcosm consisting of 3 livings have led to establishing a model for mathematical analysis and of 8 livings, have defined 50% affect dose of 5600 Gy gamma-ray. Irradiation of gamma-ray at 1 Gy/d for 5-10 days to the soil has been shown to result in alteration of the composition of natural earth bacterial population by denaturant gradient gel electrophoresis, which being a promising tool for evaluating the alteration of soil composition and function. At molecular levels, transcriptome analysis of various cells from yeast to man, is performed after irradiation of gamma-ray, neutron, heavy particles and others to reveal radiation-induced gene expression; and Hi-CEP (high

  6. Ethnic differences in the time trend of female breast cancer incidence: Singapore, 1968 – 2002

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tan Chuen-Seng

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background From 1968 to 2002, Singapore experienced an almost three-fold increase in breast cancer incidence. This increase appeared to be different across the three main ethnic groups: Chinese, Malays and Indians. This paper used age-period-cohort (APC modelling, to determine the effects of age at diagnosis, calendar period, and birth cohort on breast cancer incidence for each ethnic group. Methods This study included all breast cancer cases (n = 15,269 in the three ethnic groups, reported to the Singapore Cancer Registry from 1968 to 2002 between the ages 25 to 79. Age-specific fertility rates from the Department of Statistics were used to explore the role of fertility. Results In the 1970s, Indian women had the highest age-standardized breast cancer but by the mid-1980s the highest rates were seen among the Chinese. Remarkable differences were seen in the age-specific incidence rates by ethnic groups. After age 49, the incidence rates for the Chinese and Malays leveled off whereas it continued to rise in the Indians. While our analyses provided some evidence that an age-drift model described the trend seen in the Indians, age-period-cohort model and age-cohort model had the best fit for the Chinese and Malays aged 25 to 79 respectively. Overall, Chinese and Malay women born in later cohorts were at increased risk of developing breast cancer relative to their counterparts in the earlier cohorts. The three ethnic groups experienced similar changes in their fertility in the 1970s, which likely explained much of the increase in their breast cancer incidence but not the ethnic differences. There was a stronger inverse association between total fertility rate and pre-menopausal breast cancer incidence in the Chinese and Malays than the Indians. Conclusion The observed dissimilarity among ethnic groups suggests ethnic differences in exposure or response to certain risk factors. It is likely that longer and subtler differences in

  7. Trends in the prevalence of Chagas' disease among first-time blood donors in São Paulo, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabino, Ester C; Gonçalez, Thelma T; Salles, Nanci A; Silva, Guilherme R; Chamone, Dalton F

    2003-07-01

    Screening of blood donors for Chagas' disease is mandatory in Brazil. Data about the prevalence of Chagas' disease among first-time blood donors has not been previously reported. The objective of this study was to report the trends in the prevalence of Chagas' disease among first-time blood donors in São Paulo, Brazil according to gender, age, and type of donation. The data was obtained at Fundação Pró-Sangue/Hemocentro de São Paulo during the period of 1996 to 2001. Samples were considered positive if they were reactive to the three serologic tests used at screening (indirect immunofluorescence, indirect hemagglutination, and EIA). The prevalence of Chagas' disease was two times higher among replacement blood donors than among altruistic donors (52 vs. 25 cases/10,000). The overall prevalence among blood donors decreased at a rate of 1.86 cases per 10,000 per year. An increase in the proportion of altruistic donors and a decrease in the prevalence primarily among younger donors were observed. The prevalence of Chagas' disease is decreasing in the São Paulo population. Differences in the socioeconomic level between altruistic and replacement donors may be the reason for the differences in the prevalence among these groups. It will be important to target for study the population of young seroreactive blood donors to better understand how new infections are occurring.

  8. Time trends in leisure time physical activity and physical fitness in elderly people: 20 year follow-up of the Spanish population national health survey (1987-2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carrasco-Garrido Pilar

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To estimate trends in leisure time physical activity and physical fitness between 1987-2006 in older Spanish people. Methods We analyzed data collected from the Spanish National Health Surveys conducted in 1987 (n = 29,647, 1993 (n = 20,707, 1995-1997 (n = 12,800, 2001 (n = 21,058, 2003 (n = 21,650, and 2006 (n = 29,478. The number of subjects aged ≥ 65 years included in the current study was 29,263 (1987: n = 4,958-16.7%; 1993: n = 3,751-17.8%; 1995-97: n = 2,229-17.4%; 2001: n = 4,356-20.7%; 2003: 6,134-28.3%; 2006: 7,835-26.5%. Main variables included leisure-time physical activity and physical fitness. We analyzed socio-demographic characteristics, self-rated health status, lifestyle habit and co-morbid conditions using multivariate logistic regression models. Results Women exhibited lower prevalence of leisure time physical activity and physical fitness compared to men (P Conclusions We found an increase in leisure time physical activity in the older Spanish population. Older age, married status, co-morbid conditions, obesity, and worse self-perceived health status were associated with lower activity. Identification of these factors can help to identify individuals at risk for physical inactivity.

  9. New insights into survival trend analyses in cancer population-based studies: the SUDCAN methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uhry, Zoé; Bossard, Nadine; Remontet, Laurent; Iwaz, Jean; Roche, Laurent

    2017-01-01

    The main objective of the SUDCAN study was to compare, for 15 cancer sites, the trends in net survival and excess mortality rates from cancer 5 years after diagnosis between six European Latin countries (Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland). The data were extracted from the EUROCARE-5 database. The study period ranged from 6 (Portugal, 2000-2005) to 18 years (Switzerland, 1989-2007). Trend analyses were carried out separately for each country and cancer site; the number of cases ranged from 1500 to 104 000 cases. We developed an original flexible excess rate modelling strategy that accounts for the continuous effects of age, year of diagnosis, time since diagnosis and their interactions. Nineteen models were constructed; they differed in the modelling of the effect of the year of diagnosis in terms of linearity, proportionality and interaction with age. The final model was chosen according to the Akaike Information Criterion. The fit was assessed graphically by comparing model estimates versus nonparametric (Pohar-Perme) net survival estimates. Out of the 90 analyses carried out, the effect of the year of diagnosis on the excess mortality rate depended on age in 61 and was nonproportional in 64; it was nonlinear in 27 out of the 75 analyses where this effect was considered. The model fit was overall satisfactory. We analysed successfully 15 cancer sites in six countries. The refined methodology proved necessary for detailed trend analyses. It is hoped that three-dimensional parametric modelling will be used more widely in net survival trend studies as it has major advantages over stratified analyses.

  10. Nationwide trends in development of heart failure and mortality after first-time myocardial infarction 1997-2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjesing, Anne; Gislason, Gunnar H; Køber, Lars

    2014-01-01

    AIMS: Pharmacological and revascularization strategies following myocardial infarction (MI) have changed substantially during the last two decades. We investigated the temporal trends in heart failure (HF) incidence and mortality during the first 90 days following first-time MI between 1997...

  11. Determination of the nature of growth of the main trends of time series in small quantity of observations

    OpenAIRE

    Poutko, Boris

    2011-01-01

    The problem of determining the nature of growth in the short time series (an alternative choice between linear and exponential trend). We propose a simple criterion for selection. The result can be used, including in medicine, in particular, the interpretation of dynamics in the tumor marker

  12. Time trends (1993-1997) and seasonal variation in body mass index and waist circumference in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visscher, T L S; Seidell, J C

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To compare the time trend and seasonal variation in body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference. DESIGN: Continuous monitoring health survey carried out between 1 June 1993 and 31 May 1997. SUBJECTS: A total of 8,186 men and 9,638 women aged 20-59 y from three towns in the Netherlands.

  13. A Short Review on the Trend of Mobile Marketing Studies

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammad Ismail; Razli Che Razak

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to elucidate the major classification of the research in mobile marketing. It provides the trend and common approach in mobile marketing research. The paper aims to highlight the significant area in mobile marketing research and the needs for further understanding of the mobile marketing definition and its phenomenon. This paper has significant implications in terms of understanding the classification and the mobile marketing focusing area. This is a general revie...

  14. Trends over time in congenital malformations in live-born children conceived after assisted reproductive technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsen, Anna-Karina Aaris; Bergh, Christina; Skjaerven, Rolv

    2018-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Children born after assisted reproductive technology (ART), particularly singletons, have been shown to have an increased risk of congenital malformations compared with children born after spontaneous conception. We wished to study if there has been a change in the risk of major...... spontaneous conception during the study period. The relative risk of being born with a major congenital malformation between all ART children and spontaneous conception children remained similar through all four time periods, p=0.39. However, we found that over time the number of children diagnosed...

  15. Persistent environmental contaminants in human milk: concentrations and time trends in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abballe, Annalisa; Ballard, Terri J; Dellatte, Elena; di Domenico, Alessandro; Ferri, Fabiola; Fulgenzi, Anna Rita; Grisanti, Giulio; Iacovella, Nicola; Ingelido, Anna Maria; Malisch, Rainer; Miniero, Roberto; Porpora, Maria Grazia; Risica, Serena; Ziemacki, Gianni; De Felip, Elena

    2008-08-01

    Breast milk monitoring studies of persistent and toxic environmental contaminants are of primary importance for carrying out an adequate risk assessment at the actual levels of human exposure and represent a major source of information on infant perinatal exposure. Milk specimens from mothers of the general population of the Venice and Rome areas were collected over the 1998-2001 period, pooled, and analyzed for selected persistent organic pollutants such as polychlorodibenzodioxins (PCDDs), polychlorodibenzofurans (PCDFs), polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs), organochlorinated pesticides (p,p'-DDE, p,p'-DDT, hexachlorobenzene), and polybromodiphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and the heavy metals Cd, Co, Cu, Hg, Mn, Pb, Sn, and Zn. The goal was to verify whether mother milk from the Venice area, whose lagoon is partly under direct industrial impact, had a contaminant load greater than that from the Rome area, primarily urban. For mothers from the Venice area, the correlation between fish and fishery product consumption and contaminant concentrations in milk was also explored, with however inconclusive results. The concentrations of PCDDs, PCDFs, dioxin-like PCBs, and organochlorinated pesticides determined in this study were compared with those available from a previous analytical work carried out on 1987 human milk pools of domestic origin: the declining trend of the aforesaid contaminants in milk is confirmed to be in agreement with what was observed in other European countries. The breast milk content of (137)Cs and (40)K radionuclides was also determined and compared with data obtained in other research programmes carried out in Italy: the health risk for breastfed infants was deemed to be not significant.

  16. Time trends in exposure of cattle to bovine spongiform encephalopathy and cohort effect in France and Italy: value of the classical Age-Period-Cohort approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sala, Carole; Ru, Giuseppe

    2009-09-18

    The Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis is routinely used for time trend analysis of cancer incidence or mortality rates, but in veterinary epidemiology, there are still only a few examples of this application. APC models were recently used to model the French epidemic assuming that the time trend for BSE was mainly due to a cohort effect in relation to the control measures that may have modified the BSE exposure of cohorts over time. We used a categorical APC analysis which did not require any functional form for the effect of the variables, and examined second differences to estimate the variation of the BSE trend. We also reanalysed the French epidemic and performed a simultaneous analysis of Italian data using more appropriate birth cohort categories for comparison. We used data from the exhaustive surveillance carried out in France and Italy between 2001 and 2007, and comparatively described the trend of the epidemic in both countries. At the end, the shape and irregularities of the trends were discussed in light of the main control measures adopted to control the disease. In Italy a decrease in the epidemic became apparent from 1996, following the application of rendering standards for the processing of specific risk material (SRM). For the French epidemic, the pattern of second differences in the birth cohorts confirmed the beginning of the decrease from 1995, just after the implementation of the meat and bone meal (MBM) ban for all ruminants (1994). The APC analysis proved to be highly suitable for the study of the trend in BSE epidemics and was helpful in understanding the effects of management and control of the disease. Additionally, such an approach may help in the implementation of changes in BSE regulations.

  17. Can major systematic reviews influence practice patterns? A case study of episiotomy trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yu-Chu; Sim, Wee Chung; Caughey, Aaron B; Howard, David H

    2013-12-01

    Episiotomy is one of the most commonly performed procedures among women of childbearing age in the United States. In 2005, a major systematic review conducted by Hartmann and colleagues recommended against routine use of episiotomy and was widely covered in the media. We assessed the impact of the Hartman et al. study on episiotomy trend. Based on 100% hospital discharge data from eight states in 2003-2008, we used interrupted time series regression models to estimate the impact of the Hartman et al. review on episiotomy rates. We used mixed-effects regression models to assess whether interhospital variation was reduced over time. After controlling for underlying trend, episiotomy rates dropped by 1.4 percentage points after Hartman et al. publication (p < 0.01 for spontaneous delivery; p < 0.1 for operative delivery). The publication has smaller effect on government hospitals as compared to private hospitals. Mixed effects models estimated negative correlation between cross-time and cross-hospital variations in episiotomy rates, indicating reduced cross-hospital variation over time. Our results suggested that there has been a gradual decline in episiotomy rates over the period 2003-2008, and that synthesis of evidence showing harms from routine episiotomy had limited impact on practice patterns in the case of episiotomy. The experience of episiotomy illustrates the challenge of using comparative effectiveness and evidenced-based medicine to reduce use of unnecessary procedures.

  18. Aircraft emission inventories for scheduled air traffic for the 1976-92 time period. Historical trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baughcum, S.L.; Henderson, S.C.; Tritz, T.G. [Boeing Co., Seattle, WA (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Emission inventories of fuel burned, NO{sub x}, CO, and hydrocarbons have been calculated for scheduled air traffic in 1976, 1984, 1990 and 1992 on a 1 deg latitude x 1 deg longitude x 1 km pressure altitude grid. Using this database, the seasonal variation and historical trends in aircraft emissions have been calculated for selected geographical regions (e.g., North Atlantic, Europe, North America, North Pacific). The trend in emissions is a combination of the effects of passenger demand growth, improved aircraft efficiency, changes in combustor characteristics, and aircraft size. (author) 8 refs.

  19. Chronic Kidney Disease in Panama: Results From the PREFREC Study and National Mortality Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno Velásquez, Ilais; Castro, Franz; Gómez, Beatriz; Cuero, César; Motta, Jorge

    2017-11-01

    The magnitude of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Panama has yet to be described. We investigated the association between sociodemographic and cardiovascular exposures with CKD in 2 Panamanian provinces. Further, we analyzed national trends of CKD mortality from 2001 to 2014. Data were derived from Prevalencia de Factores de Riesgo de Enfermedad Cardiovascular (PREFREC [Survey on Risk Factors Associated With Cardiovascular Disease]), a cross-sectional study designed to analyze the prevalence of risk factors associated with cardiovascular disease. Biomarkers of kidney function were measured in 3590 participants. CKD was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of <60 ml/min/1.73 m 2 and/or albuminuria ≥30 mg/g creatinine. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for CKD were calculated using logistic regression. We calculated age-standardized CKD mortality rates in the country using the National Mortality Register. Annual percentage change and 95% CIs were estimated to evaluate the trends over time. The prevalence of CKD was 12% (reduced eGFR: 3.3%; albuminuria; 9.9%). CKD was associated with hypertension (OR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.2-2.7), age 60 years or older (OR: 1.9; 95% CI: 1.2-2.9), and previous myocardial infarction (OR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.0-5.7), whereas monthly family income was inversely associated with CKD (OR: 0.4; 95% CI: 0.1-0.9) (adjusted). A sustained increase in the trend of CKD mortality was observed from 2001 to 2006, followed by a decreasing trend in subsequent years. Coclé province had the highest adjusted mortality rate. CKD poses a significant health problem for Panama. Health inequalities and an increase of cardiometabolic risk factors warrant robust epidemiological surveillance, improved diagnosis, and treatment. Further national studies aimed to address geographical disparities are necessary.

  20. Incidence of subarachnoid haemorrhage : a systematic review with emphasis on region, age, gender and time trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Rooij, N. K.; Linn, F. H. H.; van der Plas, J. A.; Algra, A.; Rinkel, G. J. E.

    2007-01-01

    Background and aim: To update our 1996 review on the incidence of subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) and assess the relation of incidence with region, age, gender and time period. Methods: We searched for studies on the incidence of SAH published until October 2005. The overall incidences with

  1. Portrayal of tobacco use in prime-time TV dramas: trends and associations with adult cigarette consumption--USA, 1955-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Patrick E; Romer, Daniel

    2015-05-01

    Although portrayal of television (TV) and movie tobacco use has been linked with initiation of cigarette smoking in adolescents, its association with smoking in adults has not been assessed. Therefore, we examined long-term and annual changes in tobacco portrayal in popular US TV dramas and their associations with comparable trends in national adult cigarette consumption. Tobacco use in 1838 h of popular US TV dramas was coded from 1955-2010. The long-term trend and annual deviations from trend were studied in relation to comparable trends in adult per capita cigarette consumption using correlational and time-series methods that controlled for other potential predictors. TV tobacco portrayal has trended downward since 1955 in line with the historical trend in cigarette consumption. Controlling for changes in cigarette prices and other factors, annual changes of one tobacco instance per episode hour across 2 years of programming were associated with annual change of 38.5 cigarettes per US adult. The decline in TV tobacco portrayal was associated with nearly half the effect of increases in cigarette prices over the study period. The correlation between tobacco portrayal in TV dramas and adult cigarette consumption is consistent with well-established effects of exposure to tobacco cues that create craving for cigarettes in adult smokers. Although tobacco use in TV dramas along with movies has declined over time, portrayal of smoking on screen media should be a focus for future adult tobacco control research and policy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  2. Time trends in population prevalence of eating disorder behaviors and their relationship to quality of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchison, Deborah; Hay, Phillipa; Slewa-Younan, Shameran; Mond, Jonathan

    2012-01-01

    To examine temporal trends in the burden of eating disorder (ED) features, as estimated by the composite of their prevalence and impact upon quality of life (QoL) over a period of 10 years. Representative samples of 3010 participants in 1998 and 3034 participants in 2008 from the South Australian adult population were assessed for endorsement of ED features (objective binge eating, extreme dieting, and purging were assessed in both years; subjective binge eating and extreme weight/shape concerns were also assessed in 2008) and QoL using the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form (SF-36). From 1998 to 2008 significant increases in the prevalence of objective binge eating (2.7% to 4.9%, peffect of the endorsement of these ED behaviors on QoL between 1998 and 2008 (all p>0.05). Multiple linear regressions found that in 1998 only objective binge eating significantly predicted scores on the mental health summary scale of the SF-36; however, in 2008 extreme weight/shape concerns, extreme dieting, and subjective binge eating were also significant predictors. Objective binge eating and extreme dieting were significant predictors of scores on the physical health summary scale of the SF-36 in both 1998 and 2008. The prevalence of ED behaviors increased between 1998 and 2008, while their impact on QoL remained stable. This suggests an overall increase in the burden of disordered eating from 1998 to 2008. Given that binge eating and extreme dieting predict impairment in QoL, the necessity of interventions to prevent both under- and over-eating is reinforced.

  3. Time trends in population prevalence of eating disorder behaviors and their relationship to quality of life.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deborah Mitchison

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To examine temporal trends in the burden of eating disorder (ED features, as estimated by the composite of their prevalence and impact upon quality of life (QoL over a period of 10 years. METHODOLOGY: Representative samples of 3010 participants in 1998 and 3034 participants in 2008 from the South Australian adult population were assessed for endorsement of ED features (objective binge eating, extreme dieting, and purging were assessed in both years; subjective binge eating and extreme weight/shape concerns were also assessed in 2008 and QoL using the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form (SF-36. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From 1998 to 2008 significant increases in the prevalence of objective binge eating (2.7% to 4.9%, p0.05. Multiple linear regressions found that in 1998 only objective binge eating significantly predicted scores on the mental health summary scale of the SF-36; however, in 2008 extreme weight/shape concerns, extreme dieting, and subjective binge eating were also significant predictors. Objective binge eating and extreme dieting were significant predictors of scores on the physical health summary scale of the SF-36 in both 1998 and 2008. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: The prevalence of ED behaviors increased between 1998 and 2008, while their impact on QoL remained stable. This suggests an overall increase in the burden of disordered eating from 1998 to 2008. Given that binge eating and extreme dieting predict impairment in QoL, the necessity of interventions to prevent both under- and over-eating is reinforced.

  4. Dental anxiety and dental attendance among 25-year-olds in Norway: time trends from 1997 to 2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Skaret Erik

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background So far, there are few studies considering the development of dental anxiety and dental attendance patterns across time in the general population of Norwegian adults. This study aimed to 1 determine the frequency of dental anxiety and regular dental attendance among 25-year-olds in Norway in 1997 and 2007, 2 to study the development (time trend of dental anxiety and the socio-behavioral distribution of dental anxiety from 1997 to 2007. Method Random samples of 1,190 and 8,000 25-yr-olds were drawn from the populations of three counties in Western Norway in 1997 and 2007, respectively. The eligible participants received questionnaires by mail including questions on socio-demographics, dental anxiety (DAS and dental attendance. Results In 1997, 11.5% males versus 23% females reported high dental anxiety (DAS ≥ 13. Corresponding figures in 2007 were 11.3% and 19.8%. The proportions who had attended yearly for a dental check-up during the past 5 years fell from 62% in 1997 (men 56.9% and women 66.4% to 44.6% (men 38.1% and women 48.6% in 2007. After controlling for potential confounding factors, the 25-year-olds were 1.4 times more likely to report dental anxiety in 1997 compared to 2007. The decrease was largely attributable to a lower mean DAS score among higher educated females in 2007 than in 1997. The discrepancy in dental anxiety between regular and non-regular dental attendees had decreased, largely attributable to a decline in dental anxiety among irregular dental attendees. Conclusion The study showed reduced dental anxiety and dental attendance among 25 year-olds in Norway from 1997 to 2007. This study points to the importance of controlling for possible changes in socio-demographic distributions when different cohorts are compared.

  5. Nonparametric trend estimation in the presence of fractal noise: application to fMRI time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afshinpour, Babak; Hossein-Zadeh, Gholam-Ali; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid

    2008-06-30

    Unknown low frequency fluctuations called "trend" are observed in noisy time-series measured for different applications. In some disciplines, they carry primary information while in other fields such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) they carry nuisance effects. In all cases, however, it is necessary to estimate them accurately. In this paper, a method for estimating trend in the presence of fractal noise is proposed and applied to fMRI time-series. To this end, a partly linear model (PLM) is fitted to each time-series. The parametric and nonparametric parts of PLM are considered as contributions of hemodynamic response and trend, respectively. Using the whitening property of wavelet transform, the unknown components of the model are estimated in the wavelet domain. The results of the proposed method are compared to those of other parametric trend-removal approaches such as spline and polynomial models. It is shown that the proposed method improves activation detection and decreases variance of the estimated parameters relative to the other methods.

  6. Contrasting time trends of organic contaminants in Antarctic pelagic and benthic food webs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Brink, Nico W; Riddle, Martin J; van den Heuvel-Greve, Martine; van Franeker, Jan Andries

    2011-01-01

    We demonstrate that pelagic Antarctic seabirds show significant decreases in concentrations of some persistent organic pollutants. Trends in Adélie penguins and Southern fulmars fit in a general pattern revealed by a broad literature review. Downward trends are also visible in pelagic fish, contrasting sharply with steady or increasing concentrations in Antarctic benthic organisms. Transfer of contaminants between Antarctic pelagic and benthic food webs is associated with seasonal sea-ice dynamics which may influence the balance between the final receptors of contaminants under different climatic conditions. This complicates the predictability of future trends of emerging compounds in the Antarctic ecosystem, such as of the brominated compounds that we detected in Antarctic petrels. The discrepancy in trends between pelagic and benthic organisms shows that Antarctic biota are still final receptors of globally released organic contaminants and it remains questionable whether the total environmental burden of contaminants in the Antarctic ecosystem is declining. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Sunshine duration variability and trends in Italy from homogenized instrumental time series (1936-2013)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manara, Veronica; Beltrano, Maria Carmen; Brunetti, Michele; Maugeri, Maurizio; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; Simolo, Claudia; Sorrenti, Simona

    2015-05-01

    A data set of quality checked daily sunshine duration measurements was collected from 104 Italian sites over the 1936 to 2013 period. Monthly mean values were homogenized, projected onto a grid, and subjected to principle component analysis, which identified two significantly different regions: North and South. Sunshine duration temporal evolution is presented, and possible reasons for differences between the two regions are discussed in the light of a comparison with the trends found in observations of total cloud cover and with results from two neighboring regions: the Alps and Spain. In addition, trends for irradiance records, estimated from sunshine duration records using the Ångström-Prescott formula, are presented too. The major feature of the trends, an increase in sunshine duration from the mid-1980s, was common to both northern and southern Italy; the decrease in the preceding 30 year period was not, as northern Italy had a lower rate of decrease than southern Italy. The few records available during the earliest period of the data set indicate that sunshine duration in Italy increased from the mid-1930s to the mid-1950s. The further steps needed to identify and quantify the mechanisms giving rise to the observed trends and to the reported regional differences in dimming and brightening are outlined.

  8. Recent trends in user studies: action research and qualitative methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.D. Wilson

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper was commissioned by Professor Gernot Wersig of the Freie Universität, Berlin in 1980, as part of his Project, Methodeninstrumentarium zur Benutzforschung in Information und Dokumentation. It attempted to set out what was, for the time, a novel perspective on appropriate methodologies for the study of human information seeking behaviour, focusing on qualitative methods and action research, arguing that the application of information research depended up its adoption into the managerial processes of organizations, rather than its self-evident relationship to any body of theory.

  9. Determining New Trends with Regard to the Studies in Curricula and Instruction Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hursen, Cigdem; Koruroglu, Ayten; Bahali, Sultan; Mercan, Naziyet

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to determine the new trends concerning curricula and instruction. The articles that are published in journals of SSCI and ERIC databases are taken into the scope of this study. The new trends regarding relevant literature are tried to be identified by analysing 3079 articles in total through the content analysis method.…

  10. Trends in birth asphyxia, obstetric interventions and perinatal mortality among term singletons: a nationwide cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ensing, Sabine; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Schaaf, Jelle M.; Mol, Ben Willem J.; Ravelli, Anita C. J.

    2015-01-01

    The objective of the present study is to investigate trends in birth asphyxia and perinatal mortality in the Netherlands over the last decade. A nationwide cohort study among women with a term singleton pregnancy. We assessed trends in birth asphyxia in relation to obstetric interventions for fetal

  11. Review of Current Studies in Instructional Design Theory in Korea: Major Trends and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Cheolil; Yeon, Eunkyoung

    2009-01-01

    This article reviewed recent studies of instructional design theory in Korea to explore major trends and suggest future directions. Based on the analysis of 40 articles from the "Journal of Educational Technology" between 1994 and 2006, this study identified six trends: little emphasis on the conceptualization of instructional design…

  12. Phthalates and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid in human amniotic fluid: temporal trends and timing of amniocentesis in pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Morten Søndergaard; Nørgaard-Pedersen, Bent; Toft, Gunnar; Hougaard, David M; Bonde, Jens Peter; Cohen, Arieh; Thulstrup, Ane Marie; Ivell, Richard; Anand-Ivell, Ravinder; Lindh, Christian H; Jönsson, Bo A G

    2012-06-01

    Measures of prenatal environmental exposures are important, and amniotic fluid levels may directly reflect fetal exposures during hypothesized windows of vulnerability. We aimed to detect various phthalate metabolites and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) in human amniotic fluid, to study temporal exposure trends, and to estimate potential associations with gestational week of amniocentesis and maternal age and parity at amniocentesis. We studied 300 randomly selected second-trimester amniotic fluid samples from a Danish pregnancy-screening biobank covering 1980 through 1996. We used only samples from male offspring pregnancies. We assayed the environmental pollutants by liquid chromatography/triple quadrupole mass spectrometry and analyzed data using generalized linear regression models. We detected the di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) metabolite mono(2-ethyl-5-carboxypentyl) phthalate (5cx-MEPP) at a median concentration of 0.27 ng/mL [interquartile range (IQR): 0.20-0.37 ng/mL], the diisononyl phthalate (DiNP) metabolite mono(4-methyl-7-carboxyheptyl) phthalate (7cx-MMeHP) at 0.07 ng/mL (IQR: 0.05-0.11 ng/mL), and PFOS at 1.1 ng/mL (IQR: 0.66-1.60 ng/mL). An increase of 1 calendar year was associated with 3.5% lower [95% confidence interval (CI): -4.8%, -2.1%] 5cx-MEPP levels and with 7.1% higher (95% CI: 5.3%, 9.0%) 7cx-MMeHP levels. For each later gestational week of amniocentesis, 5cx-MEPP was 9.9% higher (95% CI: 4.8%, 15.2%), 7cx-MMeHP was 8.6% higher (95: CI: 2.7%, 14.9%), and PFOS was 9.4% higher (95: CI: 3.3%, 15.9%). We observed no associations with maternal age or parity. Measured metabolite levels appeared to parallel decreasing DEHP exposure and increasing DiNP exposure during the study period. The environmental pollutant levels were positively associated with later gestational age at amniocentesis during pregnancy weeks 12-22.

  13. Time trends in the association of ESRD incidence with area-level poverty in the US population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrity, Bridget H; Kramer, Holly; Vellanki, Kavitha; Leehey, David; Brown, Julia; Shoham, David A

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the temporal trends of the association between area-level poverty status and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) incidence. We hypothesized that the association between area-level poverty status and ESRD incidence has increased significantly over time. Patient data from the United States Renal Data System were linked with data from the 2000 and 2010 US census. Area-level poverty was defined as living in a zip code-defined area with ≥20% of households living below the federal poverty line. Negative binomial regression models were created to examine the association between area-level poverty status and ESRD incidence by time period in the US adult population while simultaneously adjusting for the distribution of age, sex, and race/ethnicity within a zip code. Time was categorized as January 1, 1995 through December 31, 2004 (Period 1) and January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2010 (Period 2). The percentage of adults initiating dialysis with area-level poverty increased from 27.4% during Period 1 to 34.0% in Period 2. After accounting for the distribution of age, sex, and race/ethnicity within a zip code, area-level poverty status was associated with a 1.24 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22, 1.25)-fold higher ESRD incidence. However, this association differed by time period with 1.04-fold (95% CI 1.02, 1.05) higher ESRD incidence associated with poverty status for Period 2 compared with the association between ESRD and poverty status in Period 1. Area-level poverty and its association with ESRD incidence is not static over time. © 2015 International Society for Hemodialysis.

  14. Time trends in social differences in nutrition habits of a Lithuanian population: 1994-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kriaucioniene Vilma

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During the post-communist transition period, political, economic, and social changes affected the lifestyles of the Lithuanian population, including their nutritional habits. However, people of lower socio-economic position were more vulnerable to these changes. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the trends in selected food habits of the Lithuanian adult population by their level of education and place of residence from 1994 to 2010. Methods The data were obtained from nine biannual cross-sectional postal surveys of Lithuanian health behaviours, beginning in 1994. Each survey used a randomly selected nationally representative sample of 3000 inhabitants aged 20-64 drawn from the population register. In total, 7358 men and 9796 women participated in these surveys. Questions about food consumption were included within all health behaviour questionnaires. Results During the transition period, use of vegetable oil in cooking and the frequency of consumption of fresh vegetables increased, use of butter on bread decreased, and the proportion of women drinking high-fat milk declined. Lithuanians with higher education reported more frequent use of vegetable oil in cooking as well as daily consumption of fresh vegetables than those with a lower level of education. Consumption of high-fat milk was inversely associated with educational background. In addition, the proportion of persons spreading butter on bread increased with higher education level. The greatest urban-rural difference was observed in high-fat milk consumption. The increase in the use of vegetable oil in cooking, and the reduction of spreading butter on bread was more evident among less educated and rural inhabitants. Meanwhile, a greater proportion of the rural population, compared to urban, reduced their use of butter on bread. Daily consumption of fresh vegetables increased most among highly educated Lithuanians. Conclusions The data from our study indicate

  15. TRENDS IN SPORTS INJURIES, 1982-1988 - AN IN-DEPTH STUDY ON 4 TYPES OF SPORT

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    TENVERGERT, EM; TENDUIS, HJ; KLASEN, HJ

    In this study, we analyzed the records of both in-patients and outpatients which were treated for acute sports injuries in the Trauma Department of the University of Groningen (The Netherlands) during the years 1982 to 1988. We examined whether there was a trend in sports injuries in this time

  16. A Short Review on the Trend of Mobile Marketing Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ismail

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to elucidate the major classification of the research in mobile marketing. It provides the trend and common approach in mobile marketing research. The paper aims to highlight the significant area in mobile marketing research and the needs for further understanding of the mobile marketing definition and its phenomenon. This paper has significant implications in terms of understanding the classification and the mobile marketing focusing area. This is a general review based on selected approximately forty-six journal publications which are published between year 2005 until 2010 from selected journals. Based on the selected reviewed literatures, the consumers’ adoption research only focuses on a few common areas. There is no agreement among the researchers on definition of mobile marketing and the conceptualization and phenomenon of mobile marketing remain unexplained. The value of this paper is that, it provides the fundamental guidelines for researchers on significant area to focus in the mobile marketing field and it also assists practitioners in identifying the research trend and major classifications which will assist them in designing the product and services to the right target market.

  17. Increasing Short-Stay Unplanned Hospital Admissions among Children in England; Time Trends Analysis ’97–‘06

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, Sonia; Bottle, Alex; Gilbert, Ruth; Sharland, Mike

    2009-01-01

    Background Timely care by general practitioners in the community keeps children out of hospital and provides better continuity of care. Yet in the UK, access to primary care has diminished since 2004 when changes in general practitioners' contracts enabled them to ‘opt out’ of providing out-of-hours care and since then unplanned pediatric hospital admission rates have escalated, particularly through emergency departments. We hypothesised that any increase in isolated short stay admissions for childhood illness might reflect failure to manage these cases in the community over a 10 year period spanning these changes. Methods and Findings We conducted a population based time trends study of major causes of hospital admission in children 2 days. By 2006, 67.3% of all unplanned admissions were isolated short stays <2 days. The increases in admission rates were greater for common non-infectious than infectious causes of admissions. Conclusions Short stay unplanned hospital admission rates in young children in England have increased substantially in recent years and are not accounted for by reductions in length of in-hospital stay. The majority are isolated short stay admissions for minor illness episodes that could be better managed by primary care in the community and may be evidence of a failure of primary care services. PMID:19829695

  18. Trends in screen time on week and weekend days in a representative sample of Southern Brazil students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Adair S; Silva, Kelly S; Barbosa Filho, Valter C; Bezerra, Jorge; de Oliveira, Elusa S A; Nahas, Markus V

    2014-12-01

    Economic and technological improvements can help increase screen time use among adolescents, but evidence in developing countries is scarce. The aim of this study was to examine changes in TV watching and computer/video game use patterns on week and weekend days after a decade (2001 and 2011), among students in Santa Catarina, southern Brazil. A comparative analysis of two cross-sectional surveys that included 5 028 and 6 529 students in 2001 and 2011, respectively, aged 15-19 years. The screen time use indicators were self-reported. 95% Confidence intervals were used to compare the prevalence rates. All analyses were separated by gender. After a decade, there was a significant increase in computer/video game use. Inversely, a significant reduction in TV watching was observed, with a similar magnitude to the change in computer/video game use. The worst trends were identified on weekend days. The decrease in TV watching after a decade appears to be compensated by the increase in computer/video game use, both in boys and girls. Interventions are needed to reduce the negative impact of technological improvements in the lifestyles of young people, especially on weekend days. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Trends and Patterns in a New Time Series of Natural and Anthropogenic Methane Emissions, 1980-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, E.; Bruhwiler, L.; Themelis, N. J.

    2007-12-01

    We report on a new time series of methane (CH4) emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources developed for a multi-decadal methane modeling study (see following presentation by Bruhwiler et al.). The emission series extends from 1980 through the early 2000s with annual emissions for all countries has several features distinct from the source histories based on IPCC methods typically employed in modeling the global methane cycle. Fossil fuel emissions rely on 7 fuel-process emission combinations and minimize reliance on highly-uncertain emission factors. Emissions from ruminant animals employ regional profiles of bovine populations that account for the influence of variable age- and size-demographics on emissions and are ~15% lower than other estimates. Waste-related emissions are developed using an approach that avoids using of data-poor emission factors and accounts for impacts of recycling and thermal treatment of waste on diverting material from landfills and CH4 capture at landfill facilities. Emissions from irrigated rice use rice-harvest areas under 3 water-management systems and a new historical data set that analyzes multiple sources for trends in water management since 1980. A time series of emissions from natural wetlands was developed by applying a multiple-regression model derived from full process-based model of Walter with analyzed meteorology from the ERA-40 reanalysis.

  20. Trends in condom use and risk behaviours after sexual exposure to HIV: a seven-year observational study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Casalino

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine the trends in numbers and percentages of sexually exposed persons to HIV (SE consulting an ED for post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP, as well as predictors of condom use. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a prospective-observational study. METHODS: We included all SE attendances in our Emergency Department (ED during a seven-year study-period (2006-2012. Trends were analyzed using time-series analysis. Logistic Regression was used to define indicators of condom use. RESULTS: We enrolled 1851 SE: 45.7% reported intercourse without condom-use and 12.2% with an HIV-infected partner. Significant (p0.05, in MSM +228% (p<0.001 and +49% (p<0.001, in Heterosexuals +68% (p<0.001 and +10% (p = 0.08. Among MSM, significant rising trends were found in those reporting high-risk behaviours: anal receptive (+450% and +76% and anal insertive (+l33% and +70% intercourses. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, heterosexuals, vaginal intercourse, visit during the night-shift and short time delay between SE and ED visit, were significantly associated with condom-use. CONCLUSION: We report an increasing trend in the number of SE, mainly among MSM, and rising trends in high-risk behaviours and unprotected sexual intercourses among MSM. Our results indicate that SE should be considered as a high-risk population for HIV and sexually transmitted diseases.

  1. Body image trends among Icelandic adolescents: a cross-sectional national study from 1997 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asgeirsdottir, Bryndis Bjork; Ingolfsdottir, Gudrun; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora

    2012-06-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate trends in body image among Icelandic adolescents from 1997 to 2010. Data from five cross-sectional surveys conducted among national samples of 9th and 10th graders in Iceland using five time points (1997, 2000, 2006, 2009, and 2010) were compared to examine changes in body image. In total, 32,397 adolescents participated in the study. Body image among 14-15-year-old adolescents in Iceland improved significantly over the 13-year period. Girls reported more negative body image than boys at all time points. However, the positive change in body image from 1997 to 2010 was more pronounced for girls than boys, resulting in a narrower gap between the genders. The current results are encouraging and indicate that in an age of increased overweight and obesity, the body image of Icelandic adolescents is becoming more positive. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Time-trend of melanoma screening practice by primary care physicians: A meta-regression analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Valachis, Antonis; Mauri, Davide; Karampoiki, Vassiliki; Polyzos, Nikolaos P; Cortinovis, Ivan; Koukourakis, Georgios; Zacharias, Georgios; Xilomenos, Apostolos; Tsappi, Maria; Casazza, Giovanni

    2009-01-01

    Objective To assess whether the proportion of primary care physicians implementing full body skin examination (FBSE) to screen for melanoma changed over time. Methods Meta-regression analyses of available data. Data Sources: MEDLINE, ISI, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Results Fifteen studies surveying 10,336 physicians were included in the analyses. Overall, 15%?82% of them reported to perform FBSE to screen for melanoma. The proportion of physicians using FBSE screening ten...

  3. Modeling and Forecasting of Water Demand in Isfahan Using Underlying Trend Concept and Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Sadeghi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Accurate water demand modeling for the city is very important for forecasting and policies adoption related to water resources management. Thus, for future requirements of water estimation, forecasting and modeling, it is important to utilize models with little errors. Water has a special place among the basic human needs, because it not hampers human life. The importance of the issue of water management in the extraction and consumption, it is necessary as a basic need. Municipal water applications is include a variety of water demand for domestic, public, industrial and commercial. Predicting the impact of urban water demand in better planning of water resources in arid and semiarid regions are faced with water restrictions. Materials and Methods: One of the most important factors affecting the changing technological advances in production and demand functions, we must pay special attention to the layout pattern. Technology development is concerned not only technically, but also other aspects such as personal, non-economic factors (population, geographical and social factors can be analyzed. Model examined in this study, a regression model is composed of a series of structural components over time allows changed invisible accidentally. Explanatory variables technology (both crystalline and amorphous in a model according to which the material is said to be better, but because of the lack of measured variables over time can not be entered in the template. Model examined in this study, a regression model is composed of a series of structural component invisible accidentally changed over time allows. In this study, structural time series (STSM and ARMA time series models have been used to model and estimate the water demand in Isfahan. Moreover, in order to find the efficient procedure, both models have been compared to each other. The desired data in this research include water consumption in Isfahan, water price and the monthly pay

  4. Trends in Pap Testing Over Time for Women With and Without Chronic Disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kurtz, Stephen G; Rao, Sowmya R

    2016-02-01

    Data from 20 years ago--shortly after passage of the Americans with Disabilities Act--showed that women with significant mobility disability had 40% lower Pap test rates than other women. To examine whether disability disparities in Pap test rates have diminished over time, this study analyzed National Health Interview Survey responses from selected years between 1998 and 2010 from women aged 21-65 years without histories of cervical cancer or hysterectomy. Seven chronic disability types were identified using self-reported functional impairments or participation limitations. Self-reported Pap testing within the previous 3 years was studied. Bivariable analyses and multivariable logistic regression analyses controlling for sociodemographic variables were conducted in 2014. Rates of all chronic disability types increased over time. Pap test rates remained relatively constant over time for all women, holding around 84%-87%. Bivariable analyses found statistically significantly lower rates of Pap testing for women with disability compared with nondisabled women. Multivariable analyses failed to find consistent evidence of lower Pap test rates among women across disability types compared with nondisabled women. In 2010, the AOR for reporting Pap testing for women noting the most severe movement difficulty compared with nondisabled women was 0.35 (95% CI=0.15, 0.79). However, the AOR for this disability type varied over time. Little has changed over time in Pap test rates for all women. Women with certain disabilities continue to experience disparities compared with nondisabled women in receipt of this important screening test. Copyright © 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Temporal and Spatial Melanoma Trends in Austria: An Ecological Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Haluza

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Annual solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR is mostly determined by latitude and altitude. Over the last decades, increasing UVR ground levels have been observed. Exposure to UVR is associated with a life-time risk to develop melanoma, a malign skin cancer. Thus, we hypothesized that melanoma incidence in Austria is associated with altitude of place of living and time of diagnosis. We investigated this hypothesis in an ecological study by district and year for Austrian melanoma incidence (1990–2010 and mortality (1970–2011 data. As expected, incidence rates increased with altitude (about 2% per 10 m and year (about 2%. Additionally, melanoma incidence rates were about 50% higher in urban than in rural districts. In contrast, mortality rates decreased with altitude (for males: 0.4% per 10 m, for women: 0.7% per 10 m, respectively. The observed discrepancy between incidence and mortality data could partly be explained by melanoma diagnosis at earlier tumor stage in districts with higher altitude. Possible reasons for this finding include higher awareness of patients, better diagnostic performance of medical professionals working at higher altitudes, or slower tumor growth due to protective effects of sun light-associated vitamin D synthesis.

  6. Temporal and Spatial Melanoma Trends in Austria: An Ecological Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haluza, Daniela; Simic, Stana; Moshammer, Hanns

    2014-01-01

    Annual solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is mostly determined by latitude and altitude. Over the last decades, increasing UVR ground levels have been observed. Exposure to UVR is associated with a life-time risk to develop melanoma, a malign skin cancer. Thus, we hypothesized that melanoma incidence in Austria is associated with altitude of place of living and time of diagnosis. We investigated this hypothesis in an ecological study by district and year for Austrian melanoma incidence (1990–2010) and mortality (1970–2011) data. As expected, incidence rates increased with altitude (about 2% per 10 m) and year (about 2%). Additionally, melanoma incidence rates were about 50% higher in urban than in rural districts. In contrast, mortality rates decreased with altitude (for males: 0.4% per 10 m, for women: 0.7% per 10 m, respectively). The observed discrepancy between incidence and mortality data could partly be explained by melanoma diagnosis at earlier tumor stage in districts with higher altitude. Possible reasons for this finding include higher awareness of patients, better diagnostic performance of medical professionals working at higher altitudes, or slower tumor growth due to protective effects of sun light-associated vitamin D synthesis. PMID:24398911

  7. Educational inequalities in obesity among Mexican women: time-trends from 1988 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez Ferrer, Carolina; McMunn, Anne; Rivera Dommarco, Juan A; Brunner, Eric J

    2014-01-01

    Obesity is one of the leading causes of global morbidity and mortality. Trends in educational inequalities in obesity prevalence among Mexican women have not been analysed systematically to date. Data came from four nationally representative surveys (1988, 1999, 2006, and 2012) of a total of 51 220 non-pregnant women aged 20 to 49. Weight and height were measured during home visits. Education level (higher education, high school, secondary, primary or less) was self-reported. We analysed trends in relative and absolute educational inequalities in obesity prevalence separately for urban and rural areas. Nationally, age-standardised obesity prevalence increased from 9.3% to 33.7% over 25 years to 2012. Obesity prevalence was inversely associated with education level in urban areas at all survey waves. In rural areas, obesity prevalence increased markedly but there was no gradient with education level at any survey. The relative index of inequality in urban areas declined over the period (2.87 (95%CI: 1.94, 4.25) in 1988, 1.55 (95%CI: 1.33, 1.80) in 2012, trend pwomen with higher education in the period 1988-2012 compared to 3.23 fold (95%CI: 2.88, 3.63) for urban women with primary or no education. The slope index of inequality increased in urban areas from 1988 to 2012. Over 0.5 M cases would be avoided if the obesity prevalence of women with primary or less education was the same as for women with higher education. The expected inverse association between education and obesity was observed in urban areas of Mexico. The declining trend in relative educational inequalities in obesity was due to a greater increase in obesity prevalence among higher educated women. In rural areas there was no social gradient in the association between education level and obesity across the four surveys.

  8. Weekly Trends in Preschoolers’ Physical Activity and Sedentary Time in Childcare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leigh M. Vanderloo

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This study sought to examine how the physical activity levels and sedentary time of preschoolers attending center-based childcare varied across the week. Sex differences were also explored. Participants (n = 101 wore Actical™ accelerometers (15 s epoch for five consecutive days during childcare hours only. A multivariate repeated measures analysis of variance was used to evaluate levels of sedentary, light, and moderate-to-vigorous (MVPA physical activity across the five weekdays. Total physical activity (TPA was analyzed separately in a univariate repeated measures ANOVA. Sex was entered as an additional between-subjects factor. Levels of sedentary time, LPA, and TPA across the week were found to be statistically significant, and can best be described by quadratic effects. Participants’ activity levels and sedentary time typically peaked mid-week. Levels of physical activity and sedentary time were not found to significantly differ based on sex. Childcare centers may benefit from the introduction and/or modification of active play-based programming and curricula, particularly at the start and end of the week where preschoolers’ activity levels tend to be lower. Additional investigations are required to confirm these findings.

  9. International Space Station (ISS) Anomalies Trending Study. Volume II; Appendices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beil, Robert J.; Brady, Timothy K.; Foster, Delmar C.; Graber, Robert R.; Malin, Jane T.; Thornesbery, Carroll G.; Throop, David R.

    2015-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) set out to utilize data mining and trending techniques to review the anomaly history of the International Space Station (ISS) and provide tools for discipline experts not involved with the ISS Program to search anomaly data to aid in identification of areas that may warrant further investigation. Additionally, the assessment team aimed to develop an approach and skillset for integrating data sets, with the intent of providing an enriched data set for discipline experts to investigate that is easier to navigate, particularly in light of ISS aging and the plan to extend its life into the late 2020s. This document contains the Appendices to the Volume I report.

  10. Trends in stroke incidence. The Copenhagen City Heart Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Truelsen, T; Prescott, E; Grønbaek, M

    1997-01-01

    in men, whose annual rate ratio was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.95 to 0.99), but not in women, whose annual rate ratio was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.95 to 1.00). Throughout four observed periods the stroke incidence among men remained significantly higher than that for women. CONCLUSIONS: During the period from 1976 to 1993......BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Stroke incidence has increased in some countries and decreased in others. After 20 years of intensive antihypertensive treatment the latter could be expected, and we have evaluated the sex-specific temporal trends in stroke incidence using 17 years of follow...... at least one of the two first examinations as well as the total cohort including nonresponders. Subjects between 45 and 84 years of age were followed from March 1, 1976 until March 1, 1993. Changes in age-specific stroke incidence were calculated by means of Poisson regression analysis. RESULTS...

  11. Trends in Dementia Incidence in a Birth Cohort Analysis of the Einstein Aging Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derby, Carol A; Katz, Mindy J; Lipton, Richard B; Hall, Charles B

    2017-11-01

    Trends in dementia incidence rates have important implications for planning and prevention. To better understand incidence trends over time requires separation of age and cohort effects, and few prior studies have used this approach. To examine trends in dementia incidence and concomitant trends in cardiovascular comorbidities among individuals aged 70 years or older who were enrolled in the Einstein Aging Study between 1993 and 2015. In this birth cohort analysis of all-cause dementia incidence in persons enrolled in the Einstein Aging Study from October 20, 1993, through November 17, 2015, a systematically recruited, population-based sample of 1348 participants from Bronx County, New York, who were 70 years or older without dementia at enrollment and at least one annual follow-up was studied. Poisson regression was used to model dementia incidence as a function of age, sex, educational level, race, and birth cohort, with profile likelihood used to identify the timing of significant increases or decreases in incidence. Birth year and age. Incident dementia defined by consensus case conference based on annual, standardized neuropsychological and neurologic examination findings, using criteria from the DSM-IV. Among 1348 individuals (mean [SD] baseline age, 78.5 [5.4] years; 830 [61.6%] female; 915 [67.9%] non-Hispanic white), 150 incident dementia cases developed during 5932 person-years (mean [SD] follow-up, 4.4 [3.4] years). Dementia incidence decreased in successive birth cohorts. Incidence per 100 person-years was 5.09 in birth cohorts before 1920, 3.11 in the 1920 through 1924 birth cohorts, 1.73 in the 1925 through 1929 birth cohorts, and 0.23 in cohorts born after 1929. Change point analyses identified a significant decrease in dementia incidence among those born after July 1929 (95% CI, June 1929 to January 1930). The relative rate for birth cohorts before July 1929 vs after was 0.13 (95% CI, 0.04-0.41). Prevalence of stroke and myocardial infarction

  12. Complementary feeding patterns in the first year of life in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: time trends from 1998 to 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Alves de Oliveira

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to analyze time trends in complementary feeding practices among children under one year of age in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from 1998 to 2008. Based on comparable questions on food consumption in five surveys conducted in representative randomized samples of children in 1998 (n = 3,762, 2000 (n = 3,670, 2003 (n = 4,305, 2006 (n = 3,686, and 2008 (n = 2,621, 16 complementary feeding indicators were constructed. The percentage frequency of all indicators was estimated for each year of the study. Linear trend analyses were also conducted by means of multivariate regression models. All indicators of early complementary feeding decreased from 1998 to 2008. In the 6-11.9 month age group, there was a significant downward trend in the proportion of children receiving food with adequate consistency for their age, consumption of iron-rich foods, and overall adequacy of the diet. A significant upward trend in fruit consumption was observed. There was a decrease in the early complementary feeding, and generally a worsening of complementary feeding practices in children aged 6-11.9 months in Rio de Janeiro during the period studied.

  13. Trend analyses in the health behaviour in school-aged children study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schnohr, Christina W; Molcho, Michal; Rasmussen, Mette

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: This article presents the scope and development of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) study, reviews trend papers published on international HBSC data up to 2012 and discusses the efforts made to produce reliable trend analyses. METHODS: The major goal of this article...... is to present the statistical procedures and analytical strategies for upholding high data quality, as well as reflections from the authors of this article on how to produce reliable trends based on an international study of the magnitude of the HBSC study. HBSC is an international cross-sectional study...

  14. Time trends in social class mortality: differentials in the Netherlands, 1820-1920: an assessment based on indirect estimation techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Poppel, F.W.A.; Jennissen, R.; Mandemakers, K.

    2009-01-01

    The question whether socioeconomic status gradients in adult mortality have changed over a broad historical period has become an important political and theoretical issue but is hard to test. In this article we study long-term trends in social inequality in adult mortality by using data for 2 (of

  15. Health promotion in primary and secondary schools in Denmark: time trends and associations with schools' and students' characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Kirsten; Krølner, Rikke; Mortensen, Laust Hvas; Jørgensen, Marie Birk; Diderichsen, Finn

    2015-02-07

    Schools are important arenas for interventions among children as health promoting initiatives in childhood is expected to have substantial influence on health and well-being in adulthood. In countries with compulsory school attention, all children could potentially benefit from health promotion at the school level regardless of socioeconomic status or other background factors. The first aim was to elucidate time trends in the number and types of school health promoting activities by describing the number and type of health promoting activities in primary and secondary schools in Denmark. The second aim was to investigate which characteristics of schools and students that are associated with participation in many (≥3) versus few (0-2) health promoting activities during the preceding 2-3 years. We used cross-sectional data from the 2006- and 2010-survey of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study. The headmasters answered questions about the school's participation in health promoting activities and about school size, proportion of ethnic minorities, school facilities available for health promoting activities, competing problems and resources at the school and in the neighborhood. Students provided information about their health-related behavior and exposure to bullying which was aggregated to the school level. A total of 74 schools were available for analyses in 2006 and 69 in 2010. We used chi-square test, t-test, and binary logistic regression to analyze time trends and differences between schools engaging in many versus few health promoting activities. The percentage of schools participating in ≥3 health promoting activities was 63% in 2006 and 61% in 2010. Also the mean number of health promoting activities was similar (3.14 vs. 3.07). The activities most frequently targeted physical activity (73% and 85%) and bullying (78% and 67%). Schools' participation in anti-smoking activities was significantly higher in 2006 compared with 2010 (46% vs. 29

  16. Time trends and risk factors for diabetes mellitus in cats presented to veterinary teaching hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prahl, Annalisa; Guptill, Lynn; Glickman, Nita W; Tetrick, Mark; Glickman, Larry T

    2007-10-01

    Veterinary Medical Data Base records of cats with diabetes mellitus (DM) from 1970 through 1999 were reviewed to identify trends in hospital prevalence of DM and potential host risk factors. Hospital prevalence increased from eight cases per 10,000 in 1970 to 124 per 10,000 in 1999 (P risk factors included male gender, increasing age for both genders (P < 0.001), increasing weight for males (P < 0.001), and mixed vs pure breed for females (P = 0.006).

  17. Trends in the prescription of clozapine in a psychiatric hospital: a 5-year observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niehues, Gabriela Danielski; Balan, Alexandre Balestieri; Prá, Vinicius Brum; Pellizzaro, Raphaela Santos; da Silva, Paulo Roberto Antunes; Niehues, Manuela Danielski; Costa, Ana Paula; Schwarzbold, Marcelo Liborio; Diaz, Alexandre Paim

    2017-01-01

    Clozapine is a well-recognized effective treatment for some patients with treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS). Although it has potential benefits and approximately 30% of patients have a clinical indication for clozapine use, prescription rates are low. To evaluate clozapine prescription trends over a 5-year period in a tertiary psychiatric hospital. In this observational study, data prospectively collected by the Medical and Statistical File Service (Serviço de Arquivo Médico e Estatístico) and the Pharmacy Division of Instituto de Psiquiatria de Santa Catarina between January 2010 and December 2014 were summarized and analyzed by investigators blinded to data collection. The number of 100 mg clozapine pills dispensed by the Pharmacy Division to the inpatient units was the outcome and considered a proxy measure of clozapine prescriptions. The number of occupied inpatient unit beds and the number of patients admitted with F20-F29 (ICD-10) diagnoses during the study period were considered to be possible confounders. A multiple linear regression model showed that time in months was independently associated with an increase in the number of clozapine pills dispensed by the Pharmacy Division (β coefficient = 15.82; 95% confidence interval 10.88-20.75). Clozapine prescriptions were found to have increased during the 5-year period studied, a trend that is opposite to reports from several other countries.

  18. Impact of the global financial crisis on low birth weight in Portugal: a time-trend analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kana, Musa Abubakar; Correia, Sofia; Peleteiro, Barbara; Severo, Milton; Barros, Henrique

    2017-01-01

    Background The 2007–2008 global financial crisis had adverse consequences on population health of affected European countries. Few contemporary studies have studied its effect on perinatal indicators with long-lasting influence on adult health. Therefore, in this study, we investigated the impact of the 2007–2008 global financial crisis on low birth weight (LBW) in Portugal. Methods Data on 2 045 155 singleton births of 1995–2014 were obtained from Statistics Portugal. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to identify the years in which changes in LBW trends occurred, and to estimate the annual per cent changes (APC). LBW risk by time period expressed as prevalence ratios were computed using the Poisson regression. Contextual changes in sociodemographic and economic factors were provided by their trends. Results The joinpoint analysis identified 3 distinct periods (2 jointpoints) with different APC in LBW, corresponding to 1995–1999 (APC=4.4; 95% CI 3.2 to 5.6), 2000–2006 (APC=0.1; 95% CI −050 to 0.7) and 2007–2014 (APC=1.6; 95% CI 1.2 to 2.0). For non-Portuguese, it was, respectively, 1995–1999 (APC=1.4; 95% CI −3.9 to 7.0%), 2000–2007 (APC=−4.2; 95% CI −6.4 to −2.0) and 2008–2014 (APC=3.1; 95% CI 0.8 to 5.5). Compared with 1995–1999, all specific maternal characteristics had a 10–15% increase in LBW risk in 2000–2006 and a 20–25% increase in 2007–2014, except among migrants, for which LBW risk remained lower than in 1995–1999 but increased after the crisis. The increasing LBW risk coincides with a deceleration in gross domestic product growth rate, reduction in health expenditure, social protection allocation on family/children support and sickness. Conclusions The 2007–2008 global financial crisis was associated with a significant increase in LBW, particularly among infants of non-Portuguese mothers. We recommend strengthening social policies aimed at maternity protection for vulnerable mothers and health

  19. Persistent organic pollutants in human milk from central Italy: levels and time trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerranti, Cristiana; Palmieri, Michela; Mariottini, Michela; Focardi, Silvano Ettore

    2011-01-01

    Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) such as HCB, p,p'-DDE, and PCBs were measured in Italian breast milk. This work is part of a study on human milk, adipose tissues, and food carried out in the same area over the last 20 years. The results showed the prevalence of p,p'-DDE and PCBs over HCB. Comparison of our results with those of previous studies carried out in the same area showed that concentrations are decreasing. No statistically significant differences in organochlorine levels were found when the samples were divided into maternal age classes and into the categories "primiparae" and "multiparae". In order to quantify the amount of the molecules of interest transmitted by mother to child during breast feeding, we estimated the daily intake of each class of compounds: our results indicated that HCB and p,p'-DDE were several times lower than the safety thresholds.

  20. Autism Prevalence Trends Over Time in Denmark: Changes in Prevalence and Age at Diagnosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parner, Erik; Schendel, Diana; Thorsen, Poul

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of changing age at diagnosis on the diagnosed prevalence of autism among different birth cohorts. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Children were identified in the Danish Medical Birth Registry and psychiatric outcomes were obtained via linkage...... with the Danish National Psychiatric Register. PARTICIPANTS: All children born in Denmark from January 1, 1994, through December 31, 1999 (N = 407 458). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The age-specific prevalence, hazard ratio, and relative risk by age. RESULTS: Statistically significant shifts in age at diagnosis were...... prevalence of autism in young children in the more recent cohorts compared with the oldest cohort. This study supports the argument that the apparent increase in autism in recent years is at least in part attributable to decreases in the age at diagnosis over time....

  1. Exploring older driver crash trend: New Jersey case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanvi Trieu

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Older drivers age 65 and above are known to experience greater risk on the roadway as well as increasing the risk to other roadway users. Within the next 20 years, their population is expected to increase from 41 million in 2011 to 70 million in 2030. To address this foreseeable change, the nation's recent Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century (MAP-21 act requires state and local governments to examine older drivers and pedestrian risks and implement countermeasures as appropriate. This research was conducted to assist agencies in strategising for future plans, programmes and initiatives to better address the problem presented. This was accomplished by performing a detailed engineering analysis on crash data of older drivers over a 10-year period (2003–2012 from the state of New Jersey to identify crash trends and characteristics. A major finding from this research was the increase in fatal crashes of older drivers as a function of age. Top-ranking collision types with other vehicles and non-vehicles were identified. Crashes as a function of seasonal change, climate and lighting conditions were also examined.

  2. Time trends in avoidable cancer mortality in Switzerland and neighbouring European countries 1996-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feller, Anita; Mark, Michael Thomas; Steiner, Annik; Clough-Gorr, Kerri M

    2015-01-01

    What are the trends in avoidable cancer mortality in Switzerland and neighbouring countries? Mortality data and population estimates 1996-2010 were obtained from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office for Switzerland and the World Health Organization Mortality Database (http://www.who.int/healthinfo/mortality_data/en/) for Austria, Germany, France and Italy. Age standardised mortality rates (ASMRs, European standard) per 100 000 person-years were calculated for the population Switzerland and neighbouring countries cancer mortality in persons Switzerland from 16.2 to 20.3 per 100 000 person years, EAPC 2.0 [95% CI 1.4 to 2.6]). Compared with its neighbouring countries, Switzerland showed the lowest rates for all groups of avoidable cancer mortality in males 2008-2010. Overall avoidable cancer mortality decreased, indicating achievements in cancer care and related health policies. However, increasing trends in avoidable cancer mortality through primary prevention for females suggest there is a need in Switzerland and its European neighbouring countries to improve primary prevention.

  3. Trends of phytoplankton characteristics and their communities in pre- and post-liming time in Lake Orta (1984-1998

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierisa PANZANI

    2001-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper is an assessment of the changing properties of Lake Orta phytoplankton in the period 1984-1998, which includes the large-scale liming carried out in the lake in 1989 and 1990. The phytoplankton is analysed first in its general properties (abundance, biovolume, chlorophyll-a concentration, average cell size, diversity by means of time courses of the mentioned variables based on monthly data through the entire period, and by correlations between the same variables. Moreover, through clustering techniques, the evolution of the species composition has been studied, showing the gradual decrease of chlorophytes after the liming and the noticeable increase of the diatom population, both as biovolume and diversity. Although the assemblage of the dominant species still mirrors the presence of some residual toxic compounds into the lake water, in the most recent period the evolution of the algal populations showed a clear trend towards a species assemblage more similar to those observed in the other deep italian subalpine lakes. After the improving of the chemical environment, the main abiotic factor that in the next years could play a major role in modifying the species assemblage is probably the phosphorus supply, whose in-lake concentration is low, despite the high annual load from the basin. A better understanding of the mechanisms underlying the phosphorus dynamics represent the basis to make reliable hypotheses about the future evolution of the phytoplankton assemblage.

  4. Child Mortality In The US And 19 OECD Comparator Nations: A 50-Year Time-Trend Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakrar, Ashish P; Forrest, Alexandra D; Maltenfort, Mitchell G; Forrest, Christopher B

    2018-01-01

    The United States has poorer child health outcomes than other wealthy nations despite greater per capita spending on health care for children. To better understand this phenomenon, we examined mortality trends for the US and nineteen comparator nations in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development for children ages 0-19 from 1961 to 2010 using publicly available data. While child mortality progressively declined across all countries, mortality in the US has been higher than in peer nations since the 1980s. From 2001 to 2010 the risk of death in the US was 76 percent greater for infants and 57 percent greater for children ages 1-19. During this decade, children ages 15-19 were eighty-two times more likely to die from gun homicide in the US. Over the fifty-year study period, the lagging US performance amounted to over 600,000 excess deaths. Policy interventions should focus on infants and on children ages 15-19, the two age groups with the greatest disparities, by addressing perinatal causes of death, automobile accidents, and assaults by firearm.

  5. Acute hepatitis A, B and C but not D is still prevalent in Mongolia: a time trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baatarkhuu, Oidov; Lee, Hye Won; George, Jacob; Munkh-Orshikh, Dashchirev; Enkhtuvshin, Baasankhuu; Ariunaa, Sosorbaram; Eslam, Mohammed; Ahn, Sang Hoon; Han, Kwang-Hyub; Kim, Do Young

    2017-06-01

    Mongolia has one of the highest hepatitis A, C, B and D infection incidences worldwide. We sought to investigate changes in the proportion of acute viral hepatitis types in Mongolia over the last decade. The cohort comprised 546 consecutive patients clinically diagnosed with acute viral hepatitis from January 2012 to December 2014 in Ulaanbaatar Hospital, Mongolia. A time trend analysis investigating the change in proportion of acute hepatitis A virus, hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis delta virus (HDV) infection among the cohort with respect to a previous published study was undertaken. Acute hepatitis A, B and C was diagnosed in 50.9%, 26.2% and 6.0% of the cohort. Notably, 16.8% of the cohort had a dual infection. The etiologies of acute viral hepatitis were varied by age groups. The most common cause of acute viral hepatitis among 2-19 year olds was hepatitis A, HBV and superinfection with HDV among 20-40 year olds, and HCV among 40-49 year olds. Patients with more than one hepatitis virus infection were significantly older, more likely to be male and had a higher prevalence of all risk factors for disease acquisition. These patients also had more severe liver disease at presentation compared to those with mono-infection. Acute viral hepatitis is still prevalent in Mongolia. Thus, the need for proper infection control is increasing in this country.

  6. Food and nutrient consumption trends in older Australians: a 10-year cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flood, V M; Burlutsky, G; Webb, K L; Wang, J J; Smith, W T; Mitchell, P

    2010-06-01

    Few longitudinal population-based cohort studies of older people have described dietary intakes over time. The objective of this study was to assess changes in the food and nutrient intake in a cohort of older Australians, using longitudinal data collected over 10 years. Population-based cohort of people aged 49 years and over at baseline (82% of those eligible) living in two postcode areas, west of Sydney. In 1992-1994, 3654 people were examined; 2334 were reexamined after 5 years and 1952 after 10 years (75% survivors at both examinations). A 145-item food frequency questionnaire was used to assess food and nutrient intake on each occasion, and 1166 participants provided usable dietary data at all three examinations. Energy and sugar intake significantly increased among women over the 10-year period (P-value for trend bread consumption decreased in both men and women (P-value for trend choices. This information could be used to inform nutrition policy and programs targeted to older persons. These data highlight the need to identify barriers to better food choices.

  7. Geo-mapping of time trends in childhood caries risk a method for assessment of preventive care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strömberg Ulf

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dental caries is unevenly distributed within populations with a higher burden in low socio-economy groups. Several attempts have been made to allocate resources to those that need them the most; there is a need for convenient approaches to population-based monitoring of caries risk over time. The aim of this study was to develop the geo-map concept, addressing time trends in caries risk, and demonstrate the novel approach by analyzing epidemiological data from preschool residents in the region of Halland, Sweden. Methods The study population consisted of 9,973 (2006 and 10,927 (2010 children between 3 to 6years of age (~77% of the eligible population from whom caries data were obtained. Reported dmfs>0 for a child was considered as the primary caries outcome. Each study individual was geo-coded with respect to his/her residence parish (66 parishes in the region. Smoothed caries risk geo-maps, along with corresponding statistical certainty geo-maps, were produced by using the free software Rapid Inquiry Facility and the ESRI ArcGIS system. Parish-level socioeconomic data were available. Results The overall proportion of caries-free (dmfs=0 children improved from 84.0% in 2006 to 88.6% in 2010. The ratio of maximum and minimum (parish-level smoothed relative risks (SmRRs increased from 1.76/0.44=4.0 in 2006 to 2.37/0.33=7.2 in 2010, which indicated an increased geographical polarization of early childhood caries in the population. Eight parishes showed evidential, positional changes in caries risk between 2006 and 2010; their corresponding SmRRs and statistical certainty ranks changed markedly. No considerable parallel changes in parish-level socioeconomic characteristics were seen during the same time period. Conclusion Geo-maps based on caries risk can be used to monitor changes in caries risk over time. Thus, geo-mapping offers a convenient tool for evaluating the effectiveness of tailored health promotion and preventive

  8. Geo-mapping of time trends in childhood caries risk--a method for assessment of preventive care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strömberg, Ulf; Holmn, Anders; Magnusson, Kerstin; Twetman, Svante

    2012-06-11

    Dental caries is unevenly distributed within populations with a higher burden in low socio-economy groups. Several attempts have been made to allocate resources to those that need them the most; there is a need for convenient approaches to population-based monitoring of caries risk over time. The aim of this study was to develop the geo-map concept, addressing time trends in caries risk, and demonstrate the novel approach by analyzing epidemiological data from preschool residents in the region of Halland, Sweden. The study population consisted of 9,973 (2006) and 10,927 (2010) children between 3 to 6 years of age (~77% of the eligible population) from whom caries data were obtained. Reported dmfs>0 for a child was considered as the primary caries outcome. Each study individual was geo-coded with respect to his/her residence parish (66 parishes in the region). Smoothed caries risk geo-maps, along with corresponding statistical certainty geo-maps, were produced by using the free software Rapid Inquiry Facility and the ESRI® ArcGIS system. Parish-level socioeconomic data were available. The overall proportion of caries-free (dmfs=0) children improved from 84.0% in 2006 to 88.6% in 2010. The ratio of maximum and minimum (parish-level) smoothed relative risks (SmRRs) increased from 1.76/0.44=4.0 in 2006 to 2.37/0.33=7.2 in 2010, which indicated an increased geographical polarization of early childhood caries in the population. Eight parishes showed evidential, positional changes in caries risk between 2006 and 2010; their corresponding SmRRs and statistical certainty ranks changed markedly. No considerable parallel changes in parish-level socioeconomic characteristics were seen during the same time period. Geo-maps based on caries risk can be used to monitor changes in caries risk over time. Thus, geo-mapping offers a convenient tool for evaluating the effectiveness of tailored health promotion and preventive care in child populations.

  9. Computational intelligence for the Balanced Scorecard: studying performance trends of hemodialysis clinics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cattinelli, Isabella; Bolzoni, Elena; Chermisi, Milena; Bellocchio, Francesco; Barbieri, Carlo; Mari, Flavio; Amato, Claudia; Menzer, Marcus; Stopper, Andrea; Gatti, Emanuele

    2013-07-01

    The Balanced Scorecard (BSC) is a general, widely employed instrument for enterprise performance monitoring based on the periodic assessment of strategic Key Performance Indicators that are scored against preset targets. The BSC is currently employed as an effective management support tool within Fresenius Medical Care (FME) and is routinely analyzed via standard statistical methods. More recently, the application of computational intelligence techniques (namely, self-organizing maps) to BSC data has been proposed as a way to enhance the quantity and quality of information that can be extracted from it. In this work, additional methods are presented to analyze the evolution of clinic performance over time. Performance evolution is studied at the single-clinic level by computing two complementary indexes that measure the proportion of time spent within performance clusters and improving/worsening trends. Self-organizing maps are used in conjunction with these indexes to identify the specific drivers of the observed performance. The performance evolution for groups of clinics is modeled under a probabilistic framework by resorting to Markov chain properties. These allow a study of the probability of transitioning between performance clusters as time progresses for the identification of the performance level that is expected to become dominant over time. We show the potential of the proposed methods through illustrative results derived from the analysis of BSC data of 109 FME clinics in three countries. We were able to identify the performance drivers for specific groups of clinics and to distinguish between countries whose performances are likely to improve from those where a decline in performance might be expected. According to the stationary distribution of the Markov chain, the expected trend is best in Turkey (where the highest performance cluster has the highest probability, P=0.46), followed by Portugal (where the second best performance cluster dominates

  10. Trends in study design and the statistical methods employed in a leading general medicine journal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosho, M; Sato, Y; Nagashima, K; Takahashi, S

    2018-02-01

    Study design and statistical methods have become core components of medical research, and the methodology has become more multifaceted and complicated over time. The study of the comprehensive details and current trends of study design and statistical methods is required to support the future implementation of well-planned clinical studies providing information about evidence-based medicine. Our purpose was to illustrate study design and statistical methods employed in recent medical literature. This was an extension study of Sato et al. (N Engl J Med 2017; 376: 1086-1087), which reviewed 238 articles published in 2015 in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) and briefly summarized the statistical methods employed in NEJM. Using the same database, we performed a new investigation of the detailed trends in study design and individual statistical methods that were not reported in the Sato study. Due to the CONSORT statement, prespecification and justification of sample size are obligatory in planning intervention studies. Although standard survival methods (eg Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox regression model) were most frequently applied, the Gray test and Fine-Gray proportional hazard model for considering competing risks were sometimes used for a more valid statistical inference. With respect to handling missing data, model-based methods, which are valid for missing-at-random data, were more frequently used than single imputation methods. These methods are not recommended as a primary analysis, but they have been applied in many clinical trials. Group sequential design with interim analyses was one of the standard designs, and novel design, such as adaptive dose selection and sample size re-estimation, was sometimes employed in NEJM. Model-based approaches for handling missing data should replace single imputation methods for primary analysis in the light of the information found in some publications. Use of adaptive design with interim analyses is increasing

  11. Time-space trends in Swedish divorce behaviour, 1911-1974.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandström, Glenn

    2011-01-01

    This study examines how the divorce rates in Sweden have varied over time and across different geographical areas during the period 1911-1974, and how these variations can be connected to the political, socio-economic and cultural development in Sweden. The analysis provides empirical support for the hypothesis that increased divorce rates have been the result of changes in the structural conditions that determine the degree of economic interdependence between spouses. There is a strong connection between the degree of urbanization and the divorce rate on a regional level for the entire research period. The statistical analysis of the regional data indicates that these patterns are connected to the more diversified economy that has developed in urban settings, in the form of a more qualified labour market and higher wages for females. These characteristics resulted in a faster and more pronounced reduction of economic interdependence between spouses, which made divorce more attainable in these areas as compared with rural settings.

  12. Contrasting trends in light pollution across Europe based on satellite observed night time lights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennie, Jonathan; Davies, Thomas W; Duffy, James P; Inger, Richard; Gaston, Kevin J

    2014-01-21

    Since the 1970s nighttime satellite images of the Earth from space have provided a striking illustration of the extent of artificial light. Meanwhile, growing awareness of adverse impacts of artificial light at night on scientific astronomy, human health, ecological processes and aesthetic enjoyment of the night sky has led to recognition of light pollution as a significant global environmental issue. Links between economic activity, population growth and artificial light are well documented in rapidly developing regions. Applying a novel method to analysis of satellite images of European nighttime lights over 15 years, we show that while the continental trend is towards increasing brightness, some economically developed regions show more complex patterns with large areas decreasing in observed brightness over this period. This highlights that opportunities exist to constrain and even reduce the environmental impact of artificial light pollution while delivering cost and energy-saving benefits.

  13. Generating Insights from Trends in Newborn Care Practices from Prospective Population-Based Studies: Examples from India, Bangladesh and Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowe, Sonya; Prost, Audrey; Hossen, Munir; Azad, Kishwar; Kuddus, Abdul; Roy, Swati; Nair, Nirmala; Tripathy, Prasanta; Saville, Naomi; Sen, Aman; Sikorski, Catherine; Manandhar, Dharma; Costello, Anthony; Pagel, Christina

    2015-01-01

    Delivery of essential newborn care is key to reducing neonatal mortality rates, yet coverage of protective birth practices remains incomplete and variable, with or without skilled attendance. Evidence of changes over time in newborn care provision, disaggregated by care practice and delivery type, can be used by policymakers to review efforts to reduce mortality. We examine such trends in four areas using control arm trial data. We analysed data from the control arms of cluster randomised controlled trials in Bangladesh (27 553 births), eastern India (8 939), Dhanusha, Nepal (15 344) and Makwanpur, Nepal (6 765) over the period 2001-2011. For each trial, we calculated the observed proportion of attended births and the coverage of WHO essential newborn care practices by year, adjusted for clustering and stratification. To explore factors contributing to the observed trends, we then analysed expected trends due only to observed shifts in birth attendance, accounted for stratification, delivery type and statistically significant interaction terms, and examined disaggregated trends in care practice coverage by delivery type. Attended births increased over the study periods in all areas from very low rates, reaching a maximum of only 30% of deliveries. Newborn care practice trends showed marked heterogeneity within and between areas. Adjustment for stratification, birth attendance and interaction revealed that care practices could change in opposite directions over time and/or between delivery types - e.g. in Bangladesh hygienic cord-cutting and skin-to-skin contact fell in attended deliveries but not home deliveries, whereas in India birth attendant hand-washing rose for institutional deliveries but fell for home deliveries. Coverage of many essential newborn care practices is improving, albeit slowly and unevenly across sites and delivery type. Time trend analyses of birth patterns and essential newborn care practices can inform policy-makers about effective

  14. Generating Insights from Trends in Newborn Care Practices from Prospective Population-Based Studies: Examples from India, Bangladesh and Nepal.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonya Crowe

    Full Text Available Delivery of essential newborn care is key to reducing neonatal mortality rates, yet coverage of protective birth practices remains incomplete and variable, with or without skilled attendance. Evidence of changes over time in newborn care provision, disaggregated by care practice and delivery type, can be used by policymakers to review efforts to reduce mortality. We examine such trends in four areas using control arm trial data.We analysed data from the control arms of cluster randomised controlled trials in Bangladesh (27 553 births, eastern India (8 939, Dhanusha, Nepal (15 344 and Makwanpur, Nepal (6 765 over the period 2001-2011. For each trial, we calculated the observed proportion of attended births and the coverage of WHO essential newborn care practices by year, adjusted for clustering and stratification. To explore factors contributing to the observed trends, we then analysed expected trends due only to observed shifts in birth attendance, accounted for stratification, delivery type and statistically significant interaction terms, and examined disaggregated trends in care practice coverage by delivery type. Attended births increased over the study periods in all areas from very low rates, reaching a maximum of only 30% of deliveries. Newborn care practice trends showed marked heterogeneity within and between areas. Adjustment for stratification, birth attendance and interaction revealed that care practices could change in opposite directions over time and/or between delivery types - e.g. in Bangladesh hygienic cord-cutting and skin-to-skin contact fell in attended deliveries but not home deliveries, whereas in India birth attendant hand-washing rose for institutional deliveries but fell for home deliveries.Coverage of many essential newborn care practices is improving, albeit slowly and unevenly across sites and delivery type. Time trend analyses of birth patterns and essential newborn care practices can inform policy-makers about

  15. Recommended next care following hospital-treated self-harm: Patterns and trends over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arensman, Ella; Griffin, Eve; Daly, Caroline; Corcoran, Paul; Cassidy, Eugene; Perry, Ivan J

    2018-01-01

    The specific objectives of this study were to examine variation in the care of self-harm patients in hospital settings and to identify the factors that predict recommended next care following self-harm. Data on consecutive presentations to Irish emergency departments (EDs) involving self-harm from the National Self-Harm Registry Ireland from 2004 to 2012 were utilised. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were performed to assess the associations between patients' clinical and demographic characteristics, and recommended next care received. Across the study period a total 101,904 self-harm presentations were made to hospital EDs, involving 63,457 individuals. Over the course of the study there was a declining number of presentations resulting in patient admission following attendance with self-harm. Recommended next care varied according to hospital location, with general admission rates ranging from 11% to 61% across administrative health regions. Multinomial logistic regression identified that the factor which most strongly affected next care was the presenting hospital. Being male, older age, method, repeat self-harm, time of attendance and residence of the patient were all identified as influencing care received. Psychiatric admission was most common when highly lethal methods of self-harm were used (OR = 4.00, 95% CI, 3.63-4.41). A relatively large proportion of patients left the ED without being seen (15%) and the risk of doing so was highest for self-harm repeaters (1.64, 1.55-1.74 for those with 5+ presentations). The extensive hospital variation in recommended next care indicates that management of self-harm patients may be determined more by where they present than by the needs of the patient. The study outcomes underline the need to standardise the clinical management of self-harm patients in general hospital settings.

  16. Trend analysis of GIMMS and MODIS NDVI time series for establishing a land degradation neutrality national baseline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gichenje, Helene; Godinho, Sergio

    2017-04-01

    Land degradation is a key global environment and development problem that is recognized as a priority by the international development community. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted by the global community in 2015, and include a goal related to land degradation and the accompanying target to achieve a land degradation-neutral (LDN) world by 2030. The LDN concept encompasses two joint actions of reducing the rate of degradation and increasing the rate of restoration. Using Kenya as the study area, this study aims to develop and test a spatially explicit methodology for assessing and monitoring the operationalization of a land degradation neutrality scheme at the national level. Time series analysis is applied to Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) satellite data records, based on the hypothesis that the resulting NDVI residual trend would enable successful detection of changes in vegetation photosynthetic capacity and thus serve as a proxy for land degradation and regeneration processes. Two NDVI data sets are used to identify the spatial and temporal distribution of degraded and regenerated areas: the long term coarse resolution (8km, 1982-2015) third generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) NDVI3g data record; and the shorter-term finer resolution (250m, 2001-2015) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived NDVI data record. Climate data (rainfall, temperature and soil moisture) are used to separate areas of human-induced vegetation productivity decline from those driven by climate dynamics. Further, weekly vegetation health (VH) indexes (4km, 1982-2015) developed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), are assessed as indicators for early detection and monitoring of land degradation by estimating vegetation stress (moisture, thermal and combined conditions).

  17. Uterine cervix cancer treatment at Radiumhemmet: 90 years' experience. Time trends of age, stage, and histopathology distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellman, Kristina; Hellström, Ann-Cathrin; Pettersson, B Folke

    2014-04-01

    Since the introduction of screening programs for cervical cancer (CC) the incidence has decreased and CC is discovered at an earlier stage. The purpose of this study was to analyze time trends in age, stage, and histopathology over a 90-year period and to our knowledge this is the largest single institutional series in the literature of invasive cervical carcinoma (CC) cases. This is a retrospective study comprising 18,472 women treated for CC from 1914 until 2004 at Radiumhemmet, Stockholm. The material is part of the international CC statistics published since 1937 in the League of Nations' Annual Reports, and since 1958 under the patronage of International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO). During the 90-year study period, the annual number of cases treated increased to over 400 up until 1965, after which there was a gradual drop to less than 100 cases in 2004. A pronounced shift toward earlier stages at diagnosis was noted. The mean age at diagnosis increased in all stages, predominantly in advanced stages. A reduction in squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) cases and a sixfold increase in the proportion of adenocarcinoma (AC) cases were observed. The mean age at diagnosis for squamous and AC cases shifted after 1970, when the SCC cases ultimately became 3 years older than the AC cases in contrast to around 1950 when they were 3 years younger than the AC cases. The changes in the distribution by age, stage, and histopathology during this 90-year period are probably associated with: improved social conditions and increased access to health care, the introduction of screening programs for CC in the 1960s, and a change in the risk factors for CC (changed sexual behavior, introduction of contraceptive pills, and changed smoking habits). © 2014 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Using a time-series statistical framework to quantify trends and abrupt change in US corn, soybean, and wheat yields from 1970-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J.; Ives, A. R.; Turner, M. G.; Kucharik, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    Previous studies have identified global agricultural regions where "stagnation" of long-term crop yield increases has occurred. These studies have used a variety of simple statistical methods that often ignore important aspects of time series regression modeling. These methods can lead to differing and contradictory results, which creates uncertainty regarding food security given rapid global population growth. Here, we present a new statistical framework incorporating time series-based algorithms into standard regression models to quantify spatiotemporal yield trends of US maize, soybean, and winter wheat from 1970-2016. Our primary goal was to quantify spatial differences in yield trends for these three crops using USDA county level data. This information was used to identify regions experiencing the largest changes in the rate of yield increases over time, and to determine whether abrupt shifts in the rate of yield increases have occurred. Although crop yields continue to increase in most maize-, soybean-, and winter wheat-growing areas, yield increases have stagnated in some key agricultural regions during the most recent 15 to 16 years: some maize-growing areas, except for the northern Great Plains, have shown a significant trend towards smaller annual yield increases for maize; soybean has maintained an consistent long-term yield gains in the Northern Great Plains, the Midwest, and southeast US, but has experienced a shift to smaller annual increases in other regions; winter wheat maintained a moderate annual increase in eastern South Dakota and eastern US locations, but showed a decline in the magnitude of annual increases across the central Great Plains and western US regions. Our results suggest that there were abrupt shifts in the rate of annual yield increases in a variety of US regions among the three crops. The framework presented here can be broadly applied to additional yield trend analyses for different crops and regions of the Earth.

  19. Keeping Up With Fashion: Recent Trends in the Subfields of Study of Doctoral Students in Economics

    OpenAIRE

    Sheng Guo; Jungmin Lee

    2011-01-01

    We conduct an analysis of recent trends on the subfields of study that doctoral students in economics choose for their dissertations. By investigating data on the JEL classification codes of dissertations reported by the Journal of Economic Literature from 1991 to 2007, we find that the trends in the subfields of study of doctoral dissertations follow those of articles published at five major general-interest journals (American Economic Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Journal of Polit...

  20. Focus on Games & Simulations: Trends+Technologies+Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstein, Margery

    2011-01-01

    A changing mindset combined with changing technology is driving the use of games and simulations. People are becoming more open to using games and simulations for learning, and, at the same time, the technologies are making the development of games and simulations easier and faster than a mere five years ago. Together, the changing mindset and the…

  1. Trends in penile cancer: a comparative study between Australia, England and Wales, and the US.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sewell, James; Ranasinghe, Weranja; De Silva, Daswin; Ayres, Ben; Ranasinghe, Tamra; Hounsome, Luke; Verne, Julia; Persad, Raj

    2015-01-01

    To investigate and compare the trends in incidence and mortality of penile cancer between Australia, England and Wales, and the US, and provide hypotheses for these trends. Cancer registry data from 1982 to 2005 inclusive were obtained from Australia, England and Wales, and the United States. From these data, age-specific, -standardised and mortality:incidence ratios were calculated, and compared. The overall incidence of penile cancer in England and Wales (1.44 per 100,000 man-years) was higher than in Australia (0.80 per 100,000), and the US (0.66 per 100,000). Incidence of penile cancer in all three countries has remained relatively stable over time. Similarly, although the mortality rates were also higher in England and Wales (0.37 per 100,000 man-years) compared to Australia (0.18 per 100,000) and the US (0.15 per 100,000), the mortality/incidence ratios were similar for all three countries. Penile cancer incidence is low, affecting mainly older men. Rates differ between the three countries, being twice as common in England and Wales as in the other studied regions. Circumcision rates have a potential influence on these rates but are not the sole explanation for the variation.

  2. New trends in InSAR time series analysis for wide area deformation mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanssen, R. F.; Caro Cuenca, M.; Hooper, A.; Mahapatra, P.; Arikan, M.; Bekaert, D.

    2012-04-01

    Synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) is a remote sensing technique that is extensively used to measure deformation at the Earth's surface. Although it has proven very successful to estimate small-scale (up to tens of km) deformation phenomena, InSAR still has limitations when applied to study wide areas (hundreds of km). First, radar observations are affected by atmospheric delay and errors in sensor position (also referred to as orbital errors). Both of these translate into large scale signals in InSAR estimations that can be interpreted as a non-existing deformation phenomenon. Second, since InSAR produces deformation maps relative to an area (or pixel) that is part of the observed track, combination of adjacent tracks requires the connection of these relative measurements to a common area or reference point. This operation is, however, non-trivial and is preferably performed in combination with in situ data. In this contribution, we explore different case studies where we address the aforementioned limitations to measure deformation in wide areas. They include the whole country of the Netherlands, the area of El Guerrero in Mexico and the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey. Our initial strategy is to filter out atmospheric and orbital errors assuming they are uncorrelated in time. However, this assumption does not always hold. Therefore, ancillary data, such as GPS and leveling, is also used for a precise estimation of the large scale deformation signal. Furthermore, datum connection is performed with ancillary data as well where different radar tracks and other geodetic data are combined to obtain the final deformation map in a common reference system. We also explore how compact radar transponders can help to tackle the datum connection problem.

  3. Long-Term Trends in Marriage Timing and the Impact of Migration, the Netherlands (1650-1899

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charlotte Störmer

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The features of historical marriage patterns have been linked to debates in social and economic history about economic growth and female agency. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence on the demographics of marriage prior to the nineteenth century. Here, we study trends in sex-specific ages at first marriage, regional variation and the impact of migration on marital timing in the Netherlands in the period 1650-1900. We make use of two new large historical datasets, namely an aggregation of Dutch genealogies and the transcribed marriage banns of Amsterdam. This allows us to understand the features and developments of marriage ages from a long-term perspective in what is known as one of the core-areas of the so-called European Marriage Pattern. Our results show high marriage ages for both sexes from the beginning of our study period, increasing until the mid-19th century. A closer look at regional variation reveals clear differences between the provinces and between urban and rural settings with those in the western part of the country and in urban centers marrying earlier. Migrating individuals married on average later than non-migrating individuals both compared to men and women in the receiving community, as to the ‘stayers’ in the location of origin. As later marriage implies a reduction of the window of fertility, especially for women, our results suggest that migration and increasing regional mobility might have been an important driver of the demographic shift toward higher marriage ages and lower fertility in Europe between the 17th and 19th centuries.

  4. Asbestos bodies in bronchoalveolar lavage in the 21st century: a time-trend analysis in a clinical population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuyts, Valerie; Vanhooren, Hadewijch; Begyn, Sarah; Nackaerts, Kristiaan; Nemery, Benoit

    2017-01-01

    Asbestos bodies (AB) in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) can be detected by light microscopy and their concentration is indicative of past cumulative asbestos exposure. We assessed clinical and exposure characteristics, as well as possible time trends, among patients in whom AB had been quantified in BAL. BAL samples obtained from 578 participants between January 1997 and December 2014 were available for analysis. The processing of samples and the microscopic analysis were performed by a single expert and 76% of samples came from a single tertiary care hospital, allowing clinical and exposure data to be extracted from patient files. The study population (95% males) had a mean age of 62.5 (±12.4) years. AB were detected in 55.2% of the samples, giving a median concentration of 0.5 AB/mL (95th centile: 23.6 AB/mL; highest value: 164.5 AB/mL). The AB concentration exceeded 1 AB/mL in 39.4% and 5 AB/mL in 17.8%. A significant decrease from a geometric mean of 0.93 AB/mL in 1997 to 0.2 AB/mL in 2014 was apparent. High AB concentrations generally corresponded with occupations with (presumed) high asbestos exposure. AB concentrations were higher among patients with asbestosis and pleural plaques, when compared with other disease groups. Nevertheless, a substantial proportion of participants with likely exposure to asbestos did not exhibit high AB counts. This retrospective study of a large clinical population supports the value of counting AB in BAL as a complementary approach to assess past exposure to asbestos. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  5. Time trends (1986-2003) of radiocesium transfer to roe deer and wild boar in two Austrian forest regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strebl, F. [Austrian Research Centers GmbH - ARC, Radiation Safety and Applications, A-2444 Seibersdorf (Austria)], E-mail: friederike.strebl@arcs.ac.at; Tataruch, F. [Research Institute of Wildlife Ecology, University of Veterinary Medicine, Savoyenstr.1, A 1160 Vienna (Austria)

    2007-11-15

    Starting shortly after the Chernobyl accident, samples of roe deer and wild boar from two comparatively highly contaminated Austrian forest stands have been regularly analysed for {sup 137}Cs. Until 1995 average {sup 137}Cs concentrations exceeded 1000 Bq kg{sup -1} in both roe deer and wild boar. Long-term and seasonal trends are similar in both investigation sites. While {sup 137}Cs aggregated transfer factor (T{sub ag}) values show a significant decreasing trend in roe deer (ecological half-time 8.6 and 7.2 years, respectively), T{sub ag}-values in wild boar are highly variable, but rather increasing values are observed over the last years. T{sub ag}-values for roe deer are between 0.04 and 0.008 m{sup 2} kg{sup -1} fresh weight (1987-2003); values for wild boar are between 0.008 m{sup 2} kg{sup -1} (1988) and 0.046 m{sup 2} kg{sup -1} (1996) fresh weight. Seasonal trends for both species are in good agreement with observations from German forests: increased mushroom ingestion leads to higher {sup 137}Cs T{sub ag}-values for roe deer in the second half of the year (August-December) compared to the first half (January-July). T{sub ag}-values for wild boar are highest in the first half of the year.

  6. Patterns of glucose lowering drugs utilization in Portugal and in the Netherlands. Trends over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torre, Carla; Guerreiro, José; de Oliveira Martins, Sofia; Raposo, João Filipe; Martins, Ana Paula; Leufkens, Hubert

    2015-12-01

    To compare the temporal trends in the consumption patterns of glucose lowering drugs (GLD) between Portugal and the Netherlands from 2004 to 2013 and to examine possible reasons behind the cross-national variation found. All GLD (ATC pharmacological subgroup A10B) were selected for analysis. Consumption data were obtained for the 10-year period. Portuguese and Dutch drug estimates were obtained from nationwide databases. The consumption of GLD increased in Portugal from 52.9 defined daily dose per 1000 inhabitants per day (DHD) in 2004 to 70.0 DHD in 2013 and in the Netherlands from 44.9 DHD in 2004 to 50.7 DHD in 2013. In Portugal, the use of fixed-dose combinations, especially with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4) increased remarkably and in 2013 represented almost a quarter of total GLD consumption. In the Netherlands, the use of combinations was residual. The consumption of GLD rose over the 10-year period in both countries. However, Portuguese overall consumption and costs of GLD were higher. The differentially rapid uptake of DPP-4 inhibitors in Portugal was the main driver of the cost difference. Copyright © 2015 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Assessment and prediction of road accident injuries trend using time-series models in Kurdistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parvareh, Maryam; Karimi, Asrin; Rezaei, Satar; Woldemichael, Abraha; Nili, Sairan; Nouri, Bijan; Nasab, Nader Esmail

    2018-01-01

    Road traffic accidents are commonly encountered incidents that can cause high-intensity injuries to the victims and have direct impacts on the members of the society. Iran has one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to model the patterns of road traffic accidents leading to injury in Kurdistan province, Iran. A time-series analysis was conducted to characterize and predict the frequency of road traffic accidents that lead to injury in Kurdistan province. The injuries were categorized into three separate groups which were related to the car occupants, motorcyclists and pedestrian road traffic accident injuries. The Box-Jenkins time-series analysis was used to model the injury observations applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) from March 2009 to February 2015 and to predict the accidents up to 24 months later (February 2017). The analysis was carried out using R-3.4.2 statistical software package. A total of 5199 pedestrians, 9015 motorcyclists, and 28,906 car occupants' accidents were observed. The mean (SD) number of car occupant, motorcyclist and pedestrian accident injuries observed were 401.01 (SD 32.78), 123.70 (SD 30.18) and 71.19 (SD 17.92) per year, respectively. The best models for the pattern of car occupant, motorcyclist, and pedestrian injuries were the ARIMA (1, 0, 0), SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 0, 0) 12 , and SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1) 12 , respectively. The motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries showed a seasonal pattern and the peak was during summer (August). The minimum frequency for the motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries were observed during the late autumn and early winter (December and January). Our findings revealed that the observed motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries had a seasonal pattern that was explained by air temperature changes overtime. These findings call the need for close monitoring of the

  8. Trends and missing parts in the study of movement ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holyoak, Marcel; Casagrandi, Renato; Nathan, Ran; Revilla, Eloy; Spiegel, Orr

    2008-12-09

    Movement is important to all organisms, and accordingly it is addressed in a huge number of papers in the literature. Of nearly 26,000 papers referring to movement, an estimated 34% focused on movement by measuring it or testing hypotheses about it. This enormous amount of information is difficult to review and highlights the need to assess the collective completeness of movement studies and identify gaps. We surveyed 1,000 randomly selected papers from 496 journals and compared the facets of movement studied with a suggested framework for movement ecology, consisting of internal state (motivation, physiology), motion and navigation capacities, and external factors (both the physical environment and living organisms), and links among these components. Most studies simply measured and described the movement of organisms without reference to ecological or internal factors, and the most frequently studied part of the framework was the link between external factors and motion capacity. Few studies looked at the effects on movement of navigation capacity, or internal state, and those were mainly from vertebrates. For invertebrates and plants most studies were at the population level, whereas more vertebrate studies were conducted at the individual level. Consideration of only population-level averages promulgates neglect of between-individual variation in movement, potentially hindering the study of factors controlling movement. Terminology was found to be inconsistent among taxa and subdisciplines. The gaps identified in coverage of movement studies highlight research areas that should be addressed to fully understand the ecology of movement.

  9. Trends of contraception use among married reproductive age women: Tehran lipid and glucose cohort study 2002-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behboudi-Gandevani, Samira; Ramezani Tehrani, Fahimeh; Cheraghi, Leila; Noroozzadeh, Mahsa; Farahmand, Maryam; Azizi, Fereidoun

    2017-06-01

    This study aimed to examine the trends of contraception use among married reproductive age women in Tehran Lipid and Glucose study between 2002 and 2011. This analysis investigated a proportion of women users and non-users of family planning, using data from 10year population-based Tehran Lipid Glucose Study from surveys conducted in 2002, 2005, 2008, and 2011. Of the 6813, 6993, 7077, and 6789 women in the four phases mentioned, 34.1%, 33.9%, 33.5% and 35% of participants in each phase preferred to use contraception. Number of participants studied were 2506 women in 2002, 2529 women in 2005, 2594 women in 2008 and 2525 women in 2011. Types of methods and patterns of change in contraception differed across time. The percentage of women using traditional methods increased significantly from 25.7% in 2002 to 34.6% in 2011 (p value for trend=0.001). Accordingly, modern contraception use showed a reverse trend. From 2002 to 2011, 61.4%, 61%, 57.7%, and 51% of married women reported currently using various modern contraceptives, respectively (p value for trend=0.001). The proportion of users relying on condoms showed a significant increase during this decade, being 10.9% in 2002, 15.2% in 2005, 20% in 2008 and 21.9% in 2011. The prevalence of non-users for contraception was generally low; 12.7%, 8.2%, 8% and 14.3%, respectively from 2002 to 2011, but increased significantly across time (p=0.005) CONCLUSION: Relying on less effective contraceptive methods has increased rapidly among women in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose cohort study, a trend that could be a warning to policy makers about the possibility of higher unsafe abortion and maternal mortality/morbidity rates in the near future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Trends in dietary carbohydrate consumption from 1991 to 2008 in the Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makarem, Nour; Scott, Marc; Quatromoni, Paula; Jacques, Paul; Parekh, Niyati

    2014-06-14

    The intake of carbohydrates has been evaluated cross-sectionally, but not longitudinally in an ageing American adult population. The aim of the present study was to examine trends in the intake of dietary carbohydrates and their major food sources among the Framingham Heart Study Offspring (FOS) cohort, which had been uniquely tracked for 17 years in the study. The FOS cohort was recruited in 1971-1975. Follow-up examinations were conducted, on average, every 4 years. Dietary data collection began in 1991 (examination 5) using a validated semi-quantitative FFQ. The study included 2894 adults aged ≥ 25 years with complete dietary data in at least three examinations from 1991 to 2008. Descriptive statistics were generated using SAS version 9.3, and a repeated-measures model was used to examine trends in the intake of carbohydrates and their food sources in the whole sample, and by sex and BMI category. Over 17 years of follow-up, the percentage of energy from total carbohydrates (51·0-46·8 %; P for trend frozen yogurt increased significantly (P for trend<0·04). Similar trends were observed when the analyses were stratified by sex and BMI. The present results suggest favourable trends in dietary carbohydrate consumption, but dietary guidelines for fruits, vegetables and fibre were not met in this cohort.

  11. Real time estimation in local polynomial regression, with application to trend-cycle analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Proietti, Tommaso; Luati, Alessandra

    2008-01-01

    The paper focuses on the adaptation of local polynomial filters at the end of the sample period. We show that for real time estimation of signals (i.e., exactly at the boundary of the time support) we cannot rely on the automatic adaptation of the local polynomial smoothers, since the direct real time filter turns out to be strongly localized, and thereby yields extremely volatile estimates. As an alternative, we evaluate a general family of asymmetric filters that minimizes the mean square r...

  12. Time Trends in the Family Physician Management of Insomnia: The Australian Experience (2000-2015).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Christopher B; Valenti, Lisa; Harrison, Christopher M; Bartlett, Delwyn J; Glozier, Nick; Cross, Nathan E; Grunstein, Ronald R; Britt, Helena C; Marshall, Nathaniel S

    2017-06-15

    To evaluate changes in rates of family physician (FP) management of insomnia in Australia from 2000-2015. The Bettering the Evaluation And Care of Health (BEACH) program is a nationally representative cross-sectional survey of 1,000 newly randomly sampled family physicians' activity in Australia per year, who each record details of 100 consecutive patient encounters. This provided records of approximately 100,000 encounters each year. We identified all encounters with patients older than 15 years where insomnia or difficulty sleeping was managed and assessed trends in these encounters from 2000-2015. There was no change in the management rate of insomnia from 2000-2007 (1.54 per 100 encounters [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.49-1.58]). This rate was lower from 2008-2015 (1.31 per 100 encounters [95% CI: 1.27-1.35]). There was no change in FP management: pharmacotherapy was used in approximately 90% of encounters; nonpharmacological advice was given at approximately 20%; and onward referral at approximately 1% of encounters. Prescription of temazepam changed from 54.6 [95% CI: 51.4-57.9] per 100 insomnia problems in 2000-2001 to 43.6 [95% CI: 40.1-47.0] in 2014-2015, whereas zolpidem increased steadily from introduction in 2000 to 14.6 [95% CI: 12.2-17.1] per 100 insomnia problems in 2006-2007, and then decreased to 7.3 [95% CI: 5.4-9.2] by 2014-2015. Insomnia management frequency decreased after 2007 in conjunction with ecologically associated Australian media reporting of adverse effects linked to zolpidem use. Australian FPs remain reliant on pharmacotherapy for the management of insomnia. © 2017 American Academy of Sleep Medicine

  13. Real-time on-line space research laboratory environment monitoring with off-line trend and prediction analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

    2007-06-01

    With the International Space Station currently operational, a significant amount of acceleration data is being down-linked, processed and analyzed daily on the ground on a continuous basis for the space station reduced gravity environment characterization, the vehicle design requirements verification and science data collection. To help understand the impact of the unique spacecraft environment on the science data, an artificial intelligence monitoring system was developed, which detects in near real time any change in the reduced gravity environment susceptible to affect the on-going experiments. Using a dynamic graphical display, the monitoring system allows science teams, at any time and any location, to see the active vibration disturbances, such as pumps, fans, compressor, crew exercise, re-boost and extra-vehicular activities that might impact the reduced gravity environment the experiments are exposed to. The monitoring system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many increments (an increment usually lasts 6 months) collected onboard the station for selected disturbances. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential systems failures. The monitoring system has two operating modes: online and offline. Both near real-time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line detection and trend analysis are discussed in this paper.

  14. Energy information trends. Findings of an experimental study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Legras, Daniel; Zaleska, Maryla

    1982-01-01

    The authors study the effect a ready-made opinion -for or against nuclear power- can have on how information on the energy question is perceived. They outline the methodology of their works and analyze the main findings [fr

  15. Social disparities in parental smoking and young children’s exposure to secondhand smoke at home: a time-trend analysis of repeated cross-sectional data from the German KiGGS study between 2003-2006 and 2009-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Kuntz

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Children who are exposed to secondhand smoke (SHS have an increased risk of a wide range of health problems and illnesses. Smoke-free legislation aims to improve indoor air quality and in this way protect the health of people who do not smoke. This paper examines trends in SHS exposure at home among children in Germany since the introduction of smoking bans in public places. Special focus is placed on the importance of the family of origin’s socioeconomic status (SES and on parental smoking behaviour. Methods The analyses are based on two waves of the “German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents” (KiGGS—one of which was conducted immediately before the introduction of central smoke-free legislation in the 2003-2006 period, the other approximately 6 years later from 2009 to 2012. A comparison is made between the answers given by the parents of children aged between 0 to 6 (KiGGS baseline study, n = 6680; KiGGS Wave 1, n = 4455. Domestic SHS exposure is covered in the parent interviews by asking whether anyone is allowed to smoke at home in the presence of their child. Parental smoking behaviour is determined separately for mothers and fathers. SES is determined on the basis of the parents’ education, occupational status and income. Results The percentage of 0- to 6-year-old children exposed to SHS in the parental home fell from 23.9 to 6.6 % in the period from 2003-2006 to 2009-2012. At the same time, the percentage of children with at least one parent who smokes decreased from 49.8 to 41.8 %. While relative social inequalities in parental smoking behaviour have tended to increase over time, inequalities in domestic SHS exposure have persisted. Children whose parents smoke and children from low-SES families are still most likely to be exposed to tobacco smoke. In both study periods and after statistical adjustment for parental smoking behaviour, children with a low SES had a

  16. Documenting and determining distributions, trends, and relations in truck times at international border crossing facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-20

    Documenting the times trucks incur when crossing an international border facility is valuable both to the private freight industry and to gateway facility operators and planners. : Members of the project team previously developed and implemented an a...

  17. Trends in acquisitions of physician practices and subsequent clinical integration: A mixed methods study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Jacob; Johnson, Garret; Jha, Ashish K

    2017-12-01

    The US health care system is marked by a high degree of fragmentation in both delivery and financing. Some evidence suggests that attempts to reduce fragmentation have led to significant provider consolidation, including hospital acquisitions of physician groups, or "vertical integration." The objective was to use time-series data to quantify trends in and characteristics of hospital acquisitions of physician practices. A secondary objective was to use case studies to determine the motivations for these acquisitions and to identify what integration results from these transactions. Data on annual hospital acquisition of physician practices was used to quantify trends and characteristics of acquiring hospitals between 2006 and 2013. Four in-depth case studies, including structured interviews with hospital leadership, were then conducted of recent hospital acquisitions of primary care practices. Acquisitions of physician practices have been increasing over the last decade and peaked in 2011. Most acquisitions were of small primary care, multi-specialty, or cardiology practices. The case studies revealed that the primary motivation for hospital acquisitions was to increase referrals and negotiate higher payment rates. These transactions resulted in very limited clinical integration, while all acquiring hospitals sought to integrate health information systems. Among 4 case-studies of hospital acquisition of physician practices, the primary motivation was financial and competitive motivations. This suggests that policymakers should be mindful of the potential negative effects of these acquisitions on health care costs, as well as the uncertainty of clinical benefits. Policymakers may need supplementary strategies to deliver the goals of reduced costs and improved quality of care. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Factors influencing junior doctors' choices of future specialty: trends over time and demographics based on results from UK national surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Fay; Lambert, Trevor W; Goldacre, Michael J

    2015-10-01

    To study trends in factors influencing junior doctors' choice of future specialty. Respondents were asked whether each of 15 factors had a great deal of influence on their career choice, a little influence or no influence on it. Percentages are reported of those who specified that a factor had a great deal of influence on their career choice. UK. A total of 15,765 UK-trained doctors who graduated between 1999 and 2012. Questions about career choices and factors which may have influenced those choices, in particular comparing doctors who qualified in 2008-2012 with those who qualified in 1999-2002. Enthusiasm for and commitment to the specialty was a greater influence on career choice in the 2008-2012 qualifiers (81%) than those of 1999-2002 (64%), as was consideration of their domestic circumstances (43% compared with 20%). Prospects for promotion were less important to recent cohorts (16%) than older cohorts (21%), as were financial prospects (respectively, 10% and 14%). Domestic circumstances and working hours were considered more important, and financial prospects less important, by women than men. Inclination before medical school was rated as important by 41% of doctors who were over 30 years old, compared with 13% of doctors who were under 21, at the time of starting medical school. The increasing importance of both domestic circumstances and enthusiasm for their specialty choice in recent cohorts suggest that today's young doctors prize both work-life balance and personal fulfilment at work more highly than did their predecessors. The differences in motivations of older and younger generations of doctors, men and women, and doctors who start medical school relatively late are worthy of note. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

  19. Hemorrhagic stroke the first 30 days after an acute myocardial infarction: incidence, time trends and predictors of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binsell-Gerdin, Emil; Graipe, Anna; Ögren, Joachim; Jernberg, Tomas; Mooe, Thomas

    2014-09-01

    Hemorrhagic stroke is a rare but serious complication after an acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The aims of our study were to establish the incidence, time trends and predictors of risk for hemorrhagic stroke within 30 days after an AMI in 1998-2008. We collected data from the Register of Information and Knowledge about Swedish Heart Intensive Care Admissions (RIKS-HIA). All patients with a myocardial infarction 1998-2008 were included, n=173,233. The data was merged with the National Patient Register in order to identify patients suffering a hemorrhagic stroke. To identify predictors of risk we used Cox models. Overall the incidence decreased from 0.2% (n=94) in 1998-2000 to 0.1% (n=41) in 2007-2008. In patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction the corresponding incidences were 0.4% (n=76) in 1998-2000 and 0.2% (n=21) in 2007-2008, and after fibrin specific thrombolytic treatment 0.6% and 1.1%, respectively, with a peak of 1.4% during 2003-2004. In total 375 patients (0.22%) suffered a hemorrhagic stroke within 30 days of the AMI. The preferred method of reperfusion changed from thrombolysis to percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Older age (hazard ratio (HR) >65-≤ 75 vs ≤ 65 years 1.84, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.38-2.45), thrombolysis (HR 6.84, 95% CI 5.51-8.48), history of hemorrhagic stroke (HR 12.52, CI 8.36-18.78) and prior hypertension (HR 1.52, CI 1.23-1.86) independently predicted hemorrhagic stroke within 30 days. The rate of hemorrhagic stroke within 30 days of an AMI has decreased by 50% between 1998 and 2008. The main reason is the shift in reperfusion method from thrombolysis to PCI. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Oral health among 35-year-olds in Oslo, Norway. A summary of time trends 1973-2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasa Skudutyte-Rysstad

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Oral health conditions have been investigated in 35-year-old Oslo citizens in four cross-sectional, age-specific epidemiological studies performed in 1973, 1984, 1993 and 2003. The main aim of the series of investigations was to monitor changes in oral health, including dental caries and endodontic and periodontal conditions. Data will give clues to what extent the documented improvements in oral health among children and adolescents also have been maintained into adulthood.Methods: Random samples of 200-250 35-year-olds were selected from The Norwegian Bureau of Statistics database and invited to participate. They completed a self administered questionnaire and were examined clinically and radiographically. The attendance rate varied between 64% and 80%.Findings: The results presented are based on time-trend analyses. Caries prevalence, measured as the mean DMFS scores, was high and stable from 1973 (DMFS=68.2 to 1984 (DMFS=66.5, but decreased from 1984 (DMFS=40.9 to 2003 (DMFS=26.1, indicating a 62% reduction in caries and treatment experience. During the whole period, the prevalence of root filled teeth and prevalence of apical periodontitis decreased, but no improvement from 1993 to 2003 could be demonstrated. Assessment of periodontal status showed that the proportion of persons with one or more periodontal pockets ≥6mm decreased from 22% in 1984 to 8% in 2003. The proportion of persons without recorded bone loss increased from 46% in 1973 to 76% in 2003. The oral hygiene improved from 1973 to 1993 with no further improvement during the last decennium.Conclusion: There has been a positive development in oral health among young, urban adults in Norway during the last 30 years.In the present paper, information from the first author’s PhD-thesis (1 is extensively used

  1. Impact of Climate Change on Winter Chilling Trend for Deciduous Fruit Trees (Case Study: Hamadan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.A. sabziparvar

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction :Higher temperature as the result of climate change are likely to affect horticultural production. Deciduous fruit trees need winter chilling to break winter dormancy. Climate plays an important role in the successful production of deciduous fruit. Winter dormancy is one of the key factors of the annual cycle of deciduous fruit and nut trees along with the following breaking of the dormant state. This state is maintained through the winter period each year to protect against damaging cold temperatures. To be released from dormancy, trees require exposure to a predetermined quantity of cold temperatures in a process known as winter chilling or vernalization. Insufficient chilling can lead to sporadic and light bud break, poor fruit development, small fruit size and uneven ripening times. The main objective of this study is to investigate climate change effect on the winter chilling requirement (WCR in Hamadan. Materials and Methods:This research was performed based on the General Circulation Models (BCM2, HADCM3,GFCM2 and IPCM4 and different emission scenarios (A2, B1, A1B, as recommended by the Forth Report of the IPCC. The output of the GCMs was downscaled by LARS-WG model. The hourly weather data were generated as the inputs of three different Chilling Requirement Models (CRMs, and the winter chilling trend of deciduous fruit trees were predicted for Hamadan. The projected daily temperature time series were then converted into hourly temperatures. The projected hourly temperature data were run through each of the three chill models for all four GCMs in different scenarios. Three chill models [the 0.0–7.2°C (CH, the Utah (UT, and the Utah Positive (UTPos models] were used to investigate changes in chill accumulation in Hamadan, according to localized temperature change related to increases in global average temperatures. In addition, the winter chilling requirement time series were divided into two periods: baseline and future

  2. Recent trends in the study of specific phobias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pull, Charles B

    2008-01-01

    Specific phobias are prevalent and often disabling anxiety disorders. The present review examines relevant investigations that have been published during the last 2 years on major aspects of this group of disorders. Recent studies have come mainly from epidemiology, brain imagery and cognitive-behavioral therapy, including virtual reality exposure therapy. Studies published in the last 2 years confirm the high prevalence of specific phobias in the general population and provide new insights into the mechanisms underlying the fear reaction after exposure to a phobic stimulus.

  3. Pikes Peak conceptual shuttle study : visitation trends and scenario planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-01

    This study for the U.S. Forest Service provides a preliminary analysis and set of recommendations to support the agency's work moving forward to implement a shuttle system at Colorados popular Pikes Peak in Pike and San Isabel National Forests. Th...

  4. Contemporary trends in dyslipidemia in the Framingham Heart Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recent cross-sectional population studies in the United States have shown an increase in obesity, a decrease in cholesterol values, but no changes in levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) or triglycerides (TG). Plasma total cholesterol, HDL-C, and TG levels, measured by the same met...

  5. A Study on Research Trend in Nuclear Forensics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kyungmin; Yim, Hobin; Lee, Seungmin; Hong, Yunjeong; Kim, Jae Kwang

    2014-01-01

    The international community has recognized the serious threat posed by nuclear and other radioactive material out of regulatory control. To address these concerns, the Office of Nuclear Security of the international Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is developing, inter alia, guidance for nuclear forensics to assist Member States. According to the IAEA Incident and Trafficking Database (ITDB) of the IAEA to record the illegal trade and trafficking incidents of nuclear material or other radioactive material, incidents of 2331 have been reported in 1993 to 2012. These incidents mean that we are not safe for nuclear material. In order to solve the case generated by the illicit trafficking of nuclear material and the efficient management of nuclear material, the study of nuclear forensics is very important. In this study, we investigated the analytical techniques and the current status of nuclear forensics research. In this study, we investigated the current status of research of nuclear forensics, procedures for analysis and nuclear forensics analysis technique. A result of the study, we have been found that the major institutes and laboratory actively research on analysis technique and nuclear forensics. However, research on nuclear forensics is still in early stage, ROK is necessary preliminary survey of analysis technique and foundation of physical, chemical, and morphology characteristics of nuclear materials

  6. Trends In The Study Of Language Variation:Theoretical And ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Register study, stylistics, sociolinguistics, discourse analysis, and English for specific purposes all deal with language variation. This can be gleaned from several perspectives. In this paper, however, we have tried to look at the issue of variation from two main perspectives namely: the theoretical and the taxonomic.

  7. Query Classification and Study of University Students' Search Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maabreh, Majdi A.; Al-Kabi, Mohammed N.; Alsmadi, Izzat M.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: This study is an attempt to develop an automatic identification method for Arabic web queries and divide them into several query types using data mining. In addition, it seeks to evaluate the impact of the academic environment on using the internet. Design/methodology/approach: The web log files were collected from one of the higher…

  8. Multilingual educational trends and practices in Lebanon: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahous, Rima; Bacha, Nahla Nola; Nabhani, Mona

    2011-12-01

    This paper reports on the multilingual background, language education policies and practices in Lebanon. Specifically, it shows how the multilingual make-up in the country is translated into language policies in schools. A survey of 30 private school principals, middle managers and teachers was administered online to obtain their views on school policies, problems, successes, concerns and quality ranking. Results showed that a great deal of work has been done to introduce a language of instruction and a third language as decreed by the Ministry of Education and at the same time keep the national language, Arabic, alive. The main concerns of the participants were the need for teacher training programmes and resources. Although the research implies that the school systems, in keeping up with this multilingual milieu, could be contributing to the death of the national language as well as producing students who are not fluent in any of the languages, there continues to be an attempt to keep alive a quality multilingual educational context which contributes to a cohesive society.

  9. Current trends in study of xenophobia in adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malantseva O.D.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Xenophobia is one of the most topical problems of the modern world which attains special significance in view of its extension among adolescents. The article regards the results of the latest studies of xenophobia in works of foreign scholars, as well as mechanisms of its emergence and the ways of preventing it. In the course of analysis of the latest findings of foreign investigators three main directions in study of xenophobia were singled out: investigations at the level of individual psychological processes; investigations at the level of group processes; investigations at the level of cultural, public processes. The directions of xenophobia studies mentioned above make it possible to determine the main forms of xenophobia prophylaxis among adolescents; development of socio-cultural competence, enlargement of capabilities and choice of various forms of inter-racial and inter-national cooperation; inclusion of conciliation techniques for resolution of individual and intergroup conflicts into educational process at school sites; discussion and analysis of different views on the events taking place in the contemporary world.

  10. Seasonal trend analysis and ARIMA modeling of relative humidity and wind speed time series around Yamula Dam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eymen, Abdurrahman; Köylü, Ümran

    2018-02-01

    Local climate change is determined by analysis of long-term recorded meteorological data. In the statistical analysis of the meteorological data, the Mann-Kendall rank test, which is one of the non-parametrical tests, has been used; on the other hand, for determining the power of the trend, Theil-Sen method has been used on the data obtained from 16 meteorological stations. The stations cover the provinces of Kayseri, Sivas, Yozgat, and Nevşehir in the Central Anatolia region of Turkey. Changes in land-use affect local climate. Dams are structures that cause major changes on the land. Yamula Dam is located 25 km northwest of Kayseri. The dam has huge water body which is approximately 85 km2. The mentioned tests have been used for detecting the presence of any positive or negative trend in meteorological data. The meteorological data in relation to the seasonal average, maximum, and minimum values of the relative humidity and seasonal average wind speed have been organized as time series and the tests have been conducted accordingly. As a result of these tests, the following have been identified: increase was observed in minimum relative humidity values in the spring, summer, and autumn seasons. As for the seasonal average wind speed, decrease was detected for nine stations in all seasons, whereas increase was observed in four stations. After the trend analysis, pre-dam mean relative humidity time series were modeled with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) model which is statistical modeling tool. Post-dam relative humidity values were predicted by ARIMA models.

  11. Let me Google that for you: a time series analysis of seasonality in internet search trends for terms related to foot and ankle pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Telfer, Scott; Woodburn, James

    2015-01-01

    The analysis of internet search traffic may present the opportunity to gain insights into general trends and patterns in information seeking behaviour related to medical conditions at a population level. For prevalent and widespread problems such as foot and ankle pain, this information has the potential to improve our understanding of seasonality and trends within these conditions and their treatments, and may act as a useful proxy for their true incidence/prevalence characteristics. This study aimed to explore seasonal effects, general trends and relative popularity of internet search terms related to foot and ankle pain over the past decade. We used the Google Trends tool to obtain relative search engine traffic for terms relating to foot and ankle pain and common treatments from Google search and affiliated pages for major northern and southern hemisphere English speaking nations. Analysis of overall trends and seasonality including summer/winter differences was carried out on these terms. Searches relating to general foot pain were on average 3.4 times more common than those relating to ankle pain, and twice as common as searches relating to heel pain. Distinct seasonal effects were seen in the northern hemisphere, with large increases in search volumes in the summer months compared to winter for foot (p = 0.004, 95 % CI [22.2-32.1]), ankle (p = 0.0078, 95 % CI [20.9-35.5]), and heel pain (p = 0.004, 95 % CI [29.1-45.6]). These seasonal effects were reflected by data from Australia, with the exception of ankle pain. Annual seasonal effects for treatment options were limited to terms related to foot surgery and ankle orthoses (p = 0.031, 95 % CI [3.5-20.9]; p = 0.004, 95 % CI [7.6-25.2] respectively), again increasing in the summer months. A number of general trends and annual seasonal effects were found in time series internet search data for terms relating to foot and ankle pain. This data may provide insights into these conditions at

  12. Time trends in radiocaesium in the Japanese diet following nuclear weapons testing and Chernobyl: Implications for long term contamination post-Fukushima.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jim T; Tagami, Keiko; Uchida, Shigeo

    2017-12-01

    Estimation of time changes in radiocaesium in foodstuffs is key to predicting the long term impact of the Fukushima accident on the Japanese diet. We have modelled >4000 measurements, spanning 50 years, of 137 Cs in foodstuffs and whole diet in Japan after nuclear weapons testing (NWT) and the Chernobyl accident. Broadly consistent long term trends in 137 Cs activity concentrations are seen between different agricultural foodstuffs; whole diet follows this general trend with remarkably little variation between averages for different regions of Japan. Model blind tests against post-NWT data for the Fukushima Prefecture showed good predictions for radiocaesium in whole diet, spinach and Japanese radish (for which good long term test data were available). For the post-Fukushima period to 2015, radiocaesium in the average diet followed a declining time trend consistent with that seen after NWT and Chernobyl. Data for different regions post-Fukushima show a high degree of mixing of dietary foodstuffs between regions: significant over-estimates of average dietary 137 Cs were made when it was assumed that only regionally-produced food was consumed. Predictions of mean committed effective internal doses from dietary 137 Cs (2011 to 2061) in non-evacuated parts of the Fukushima Prefecture show that average internal dose is relatively low. This study focused on average regional ingestion dose rates and does not attempt to make site specific predictions. However, temporal trends identified could form a basis for site specific predictions of long term activity concentrations in agricultural products and diet both outside and (to assess potential re-use) inside currently evacuated areas. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  13. Trends over time in tree and seedling phylogenetic diversity indicate regional differences in forest biodiversity change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; Christopher W. Woodall

    2012-01-01

    Changing climate conditions may impact the short-term ability of forest tree species to regenerate in many locations. In the longer term, tree species may be unable to persist in some locations while they become established in new places. Over both time frames, forest tree biodiversity may change in unexpected ways. Using repeated inventory measurements five years...

  14. Trends in mammography over time for women with and without chronic disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kurtz, Stephen G; Rao, Sowmya R

    2015-07-01

    Women with disabilities often receive mammograms at lower rates than do nondisabled women, although this disparity varies by disability type and severity. Given the implementation of disability civil rights laws in the early 1990s, we examined whether disability disparities in mammogram use have diminished over time. We analyzed National Health Interview Survey responses of civilian, noninstitutionalized United States female residents 50 to 74 years old from selected years between 1998 and 2010. We identified seven chronic disability types using self-reported functional impairments, activity/participation limitations, and expected duration. We conducted bivariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses examining associations of self-reported mammogram use within the previous two years with sociodemographic factors and disability. Most chronic disability rates rose over time. The most common disability was movement difficulties, with rates increasing from 35.6% (1998) to 39.8% (2010). Mammogram rates for all women remained relatively stable over time, ranging from 72% to 75%. Bivariable analyses generally found statistically significantly lower mammogram rates for women with disability versus nondisabled women. Over time, disparities grew significantly between women with any basic action difficulty or complex activity limitation and nondisabled women (pdisability. Little has changed since 1998 in mammogram rates for women with versus without disabilities. Women with certain disabilities continue to experience disparities in mammography testing.

  15. Incidence and Trends in Psychopathology Symptoms over Time in Adults with Severe to Profound Intellectual Disability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horovitz, Max; Matson, Johnny L.; Sipes, Megan; Shoemaker, Mary; Belva, Brian; Bamburg, Jay W.

    2011-01-01

    Individuals with intellectual disability (ID) have a high risk for developing comorbid psychopathology. While researchers have shown that symptoms of psychopathology remain relatively stable in children with ID over time, little research has been conducted to demonstrate symptom stability for adults with ID. Incidence of psychopathology symptoms…

  16. Trends of mutation studies in bread wheat (Tricticum aestivum)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, M.P.; Dubey, S.D.; Singhal, N.C.

    1974-01-01

    Studies were undertaken in different wheat varieties to determine (a) the relative efficiency of different ionizing radiations in realising viable mutations; (b) effectiveness of acute VS chronic irradiation; (c) genotypic differences and varietal response to radiation damage and (d) fertility and survival in M 1 as a parameter for mutation percentage in M 2 . The chemicals (ethyl methane sulphonate, nitroso methyl urethan and nitroso guanidine) and radiations (X-rays, gamma-rays, radio-isotopes P 32 and S 35 and neutrons) were used in different sets of treatments. The relative effect of these treatments on variable genotypes was studied, in relation to seed germination, growth, chromosome structure, pollen fertility an seed set in M 1 and in M 2 mutation frequency and spectrum. The treatments including higher sterility in M 1 , gave higher mutation percentage of phenotypic detectable types. In spite of the limited M 2 population, the higher mutation frequency and mutation spectrum were maintained irrespective of the treatment and the genotype involved. (N.M.M.)

  17. Time trends in cardiovascular disease mortality in Russia and Germany from 1980 to 2007 - are there migration effects?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deckert Andreas

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD is the leading cause of death in the industrialized world. Large variations in CVD mortality between countries and also between population subgroups within countries have been observed. Previous studies showed significantly lower risks in German repatriates and Jews emigrating from Russia than in the general Russian population. We examined to what degree the migration of large subgroups influenced national CVD mortality rates. Methods We used WHO data to map the CVD mortality distribution in Europe in 2005. Supplemented by data of the Statistisches Bundesamt, the mortality trends in three major CVD groups between 1980 and 2007 in Russia and Germany are displayed, as well as demographic information. The effects of migration on demography were estimated and percentage changes in CVD mortality trends were calculated under the assumption that migration had not occurred. Results Cardiovascular disease mortality patterns within Europe showed a strong west-east gradient with ratios up to sixfold. In Germany, the CVD mortality levels were low and steadily decreasing, whereas in Russia they fluctuated at high levels with substantial differences between the sexes and strong correlations with political changes and health campaigns. The trends in both Russia and Germany were affected by the migration that occurred in both countries over recent decades. However, our restricted focus in only adjusting for the migration of German repatriates and Jews had moderate effects on the national CVD mortality statistics in Germany (+1.0% and Russia (-0.6%. Conclusions The effects on CVD mortality rates due to migration in Germany and Russia were smaller than those due to secular economical changes. However, migration should still be considered as a factor influencing national mortality trends.

  18. Uterine cervix cancer treatment at Radiumhemmet: 90 years′ experience. Time trends of age, stage, and histopathology distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hellman, Kristina; Hellström, Ann-Cathrin; Pettersson, B Folke

    2014-01-01

    Since the introduction of screening programs for cervical cancer (CC) the incidence has decreased and CC is discovered at an earlier stage. The purpose of this study was to analyze time trends in age, stage, and histopathology over a 90-year period and to our knowledge this is the largest single institutional series in the literature of invasive cervical carcinoma (CC) cases. This is a retrospective study comprising 18,472 women treated for CC from 1914 until 2004 at Radiumhemmet, Stockholm. The material is part of the international CC statistics published since 1937 in the League of Nations' Annual Reports, and since 1958 under the patronage of International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO). During the 90-year study period, the annual number of cases treated increased to over 400 up until 1965, after which there was a gradual drop to less than 100 cases in 2004. A pronounced shift toward earlier stages at diagnosis was noted. The mean age at diagnosis increased in all stages, predominantly in advanced stages. A reduction in squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) cases and a sixfold increase in the proportion of adenocarcinoma (AC) cases were observed. The mean age at diagnosis for squamous and AC cases shifted after 1970, when the SCC cases ultimately became 3 years older than the AC cases in contrast to around 1950 when they were 3 years younger than the AC cases. The changes in the distribution by age, stage, and histopathology during this 90-year period are probably associated with: improved social conditions and increased access to health care, the introduction of screening programs for CC in the 1960s, and a change in the risk factors for CC (changed sexual behavior, introduction of contraceptive pills, and changed smoking habits). This is a study on changes in the distribution by age, stage, and histopathology in a large series of cervical cancer treated in Sweden during a 90-year period. It also includes an historical review about the development

  19. Uterine cervix cancer treatment at Radiumhemmet: 90 years′ experience. Time trends of age, stage, and histopathology distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellman, Kristina; Hellström, Ann-Cathrin; Pettersson, B Folke

    2014-01-01

    Since the introduction of screening programs for cervical cancer (CC) the incidence has decreased and CC is discovered at an earlier stage. The purpose of this study was to analyze time trends in age, stage, and histopathology over a 90-year period and to our knowledge this is the largest single institutional series in the literature of invasive cervical carcinoma (CC) cases. This is a retrospective study comprising 18,472 women treated for CC from 1914 until 2004 at Radiumhemmet, Stockholm. The material is part of the international CC statistics published since 1937 in the League of Nations' Annual Reports, and since 1958 under the patronage of International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO). During the 90-year study period, the annual number of cases treated increased to over 400 up until 1965, after which there was a gradual drop to less than 100 cases in 2004. A pronounced shift toward earlier stages at diagnosis was noted. The mean age at diagnosis increased in all stages, predominantly in advanced stages. A reduction in squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) cases and a sixfold increase in the proportion of adenocarcinoma (AC) cases were observed. The mean age at diagnosis for squamous and AC cases shifted after 1970, when the SCC cases ultimately became 3 years older than the AC cases in contrast to around 1950 when they were 3 years younger than the AC cases. The changes in the distribution by age, stage, and histopathology during this 90-year period are probably associated with: improved social conditions and increased access to health care, the introduction of screening programs for CC in the 1960s, and a change in the risk factors for CC (changed sexual behavior, introduction of contraceptive pills, and changed smoking habits). This is a study on changes in the distribution by age, stage, and histopathology in a large series of cervical cancer treated in Sweden during a 90-year period. It also includes an historical review about the development of

  20. Trends in, and predictors of, anxiety and specific worries following colposcopy: a 12-month longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Mairead; O'Leary, Eamonn; Waller, Jo; Gallagher, Pamela; D'arcy, Tom; Flannelly, Grainne; Martin, Cara M; McRae, Judith; Prendiville, Walter; Ruttle, Carmel; White, Christine; Pilkington, Loretto; O'Leary, John J; Sharp, Linda

    2016-05-01

    Little is known about which women are at greatest risk of adverse psychological after-effects following colposcopy. This study examined time trends in, and identified predictors of, anxiety and specific worries over 12 months. Women attending two hospital-based colposcopy clinics for abnormal cervical cytology were invited to complete psychosocial questionnaires at 4, 8 and 12 months following colposcopy. General anxiety and screening-specific worries (about cervical cancer, having sex and future fertility) were measured. Generalised estimating equations were used to assess associations between socio-demographic, lifestyle and clinical variables and risk of psychological outcomes. Of 584 women initially recruited, 429, 343 and 303 completed questionnaires at 4, 8 and 12 months, respectively. Screening-specific worries declined significantly over time but were still relatively high at 12 months: 23%, 39% and 18% for worries about cervical cancer, fertility and having sex, respectively. Anxiety remained stable (20%) over time. Risks of cervical cancer worry and anxiety were both almost double in women without private health insurance (cervical cancer worry: OR = 1.80, 95% CI 1.25-2.61; anxiety: OR = 1.84, 95% CI 1.20-2.84). Younger women (following colposcopy, with predictors varying between outcomes. Women in socio-demographically vulnerable groups were at greatest risk of adverse psychological outcomes. This information could inform development of interventions to alleviate psychological distress post-colposcopy. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Recent trends in IBA for cultural heritage studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beck, Lucile, E-mail: lucile.beck@cea.fr

    2014-08-01

    Ion beam analysis (IBA) techniques play an important role in the field of cultural heritage. IBA was one of the first physical methods applied to archaeology in the 70s. 40 years later, more than 25 accelerator laboratories were or are involved in cultural heritage applications. The advantages of the IBA techniques match very well the requirements for the analysis of archaeological or museum objects: non destructiveness, major, minor and trace element analysis, information in depth, elemental mapping… Thanks to this collected information, IBA techniques can answer archaeological and conservation questions: provenance determination, ancient technologies (fabrication, transformation, recipes…) and conservation issues. In spite of the competition with portable devices and large facilities (such as synchrotron or neutron reactors), the IBA methods keep their interest due to the possibility of associating two or three of them according to the archaeological or art issue. In this article, some examples chosen for their original approach are presented: PIXE for X-radiography, provenance of prehistoric pigments and painting characterisation. They illustrate the useful versatility of IBA for cultural heritage studies. Perspectives for further improvements are also proposed.

  2. Time-Trends and Congener Profiles of PBDEs and PCBs in California Peregrine Falcons (Falco peregrinus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, June-Soo; Holden, Arthur; Chu, Vivian; Kim, Michele; Rhee, Alexandra; Patel, Puja; Shi, Yating; Linthicum, Janet; Walton, Brian J.; Mckeown, Karen; Jewell, Nicholas P.; Hooper, Kim

    2010-01-01

    High levels (µg/g lw) of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were measured in peregrine falcon eggs from California (n = 90 eggs from 52 birds, 38 nest sites, collected 1986–2007, ΣPBDEs median = 4.53, range = 0.08–53.1). Over the past 22 years, PBDE levels more than tripled each decade in the eggs, whereas PCB levels had no significant changes. PBDE levels were highest in eggs from major California cities (“Big Cities”), whereas PCBs showed no difference across the regions. For PBDEs, Big City eggs had markedly different patterns from Coastal eggs:BDE-209 and the higher brominated PBDEs (hexa–nona) were dominant congeners in Big City eggs, while BDE-47 and -99 were dominant in Coastal eggs. In many of the birds that gave multiple eggs over time (“time series”), PBDE patterns changed over time: the high proportions of BDE-209 and higher brominated PBDEs (short half-lives) in young birds contrasted with increasingly higher proportions of BDE-153 (long half-life) and other lower brominated PBDEs as the birds aged. These data are consistent with metabolic debromination of BDE-209 (t1/2 = 1–2 weeks) to the lower brominated PBDEs, with accumulation over time of BDE-153 (t1/2 = 3–4 years). In contrast, PCB patterns showed no differences by locations, and did not change over time. Diet (prey birds) may explain the urban PBDE pattern, as the patterns in urban pigeons and peregrines were similar, with high proportions of BDE-209 and the higher-brominated PBDEs. Also, our prey data (feathers from peregrine nests) showed urban peregrines having a higher proportion (>2 fold) of granivorous/opportunistic birds (e.g., “introduced feral” pigeons, mourning doves, starlings) in their diet than coastal peregrines. In summary, these data indicate that BDE-209 exits consumer products as an environmental contaminant to be taken up by wildlife (particularly in urban locations), and undergoes metabolic debromination to the

  3. Seven-year time trends in energy balance-related behaviours according to educational level and ethnic background among 14-year-old adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meijerink, Frederika J; van Vuuren, C Leontine; Wijnhoven, Hanneke A H; van Eijsden, Manon

    2016-04-01

    To assess seven-year time trends in energy balance-related behaviours in 14-year-old adolescents living in an urban area and to examine the influence of educational level and ethnicity on these time trends. Second grade students (mean age 13·6 years) filled in questionnaires about the energy balance-related behaviours of breakfast consumption, fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity and screen-time behaviour from school years 2006-2007 to 2012-2013. Energy balance-related behaviours were dichotomized and logistic regression analyses were used to examine time trends in healthy energy balance-related behaviours, including interaction terms for educational level and ethnicity. Secondary schools in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Per school year, 2185-3331 children participated. The total sample included 19 244 students of Dutch, Surinamese, Turkish and Moroccan ethnic background. A significant linear increase was found for positive screen-time behaviour (Time trends in screen time were significantly different across educational levels (P-interaction=0·002) and ethnic backgrounds (Ptime trends in daily fruit consumption (P=0·017 and P=0·018, respectively) and, for ethnicity, trends in daily vegetable consumption (Ptime behaviour is a positive finding. However, discouraging screen time and promoting other healthy behaviours, more specifically daily fruit and vegetable consumption, remain important particularly among adolescents enrolled in pre-vocational education and of non-Dutch ethnic background.

  4. Time trends and sex differences in associations between socioeconomic status indicators and overweight-obesity in Mexico (2006-2012).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quezada, Amado D; Lozada-Tequeanes, Ana L

    2015-12-16

    Although the associations between specific socioeconomic status (SES) indicators and overweight or obesity (OWOB) have been studied in different countries, fewer evidence exists for these associations when multiple SES indicators are considered simultaneously. Furthermore, there are few studies investigating time trends in OWOB and their relation with SES in upper-middle income countries, especially for men. The present study contributes to a better understanding of the nature and evolution of the associations between SES indicators and OWOB in the Mexican adult population. We pooled data from the 2006 and 2012 National Health and Nutrition Surveys in Mexico and obtained covariate-adjusted prevalence from a design-based logistic multiple regression model. Covariates included a wealth index, education, occupational status, marital status, and all interactions for each covariate with sex (male/female) and survey year. For men, the association between wealth and OWOB remained positive in general but curvature was more evident in 2012. The wealth-OWOB association in women showed an inverted-U pattern at both years with a positive slope that turned into a negative one as wealth increased. Among women, OWOB prevalence at the college/university education level was approximately 12.0 ± 2.4 (percentage points ± standard error) lower compared with the elementary education level. We did not find differences between educational categories for men in 2006, but in 2012 OWOB tended to be higher among the more educated. The prevalence of obesity in women increased at wealth levels from the middle and upper-middle section of the wealth distributions. Overall OWOB prevalence was near 70 % in 2012 for both sexes. Among Mexican women, the associations between SES indicators and excess body weight were consistent to those found in developed countries. Among Mexican men, higher education was not associated with a lower prevalence of OWOB but the positive association between

  5. Italian pool of asbestos workers cohorts: mortality trends of asbestos-related neoplasms after long time since first exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrante, Daniela; Chellini, Elisabetta; Merler, Enzo; Pavone, Venere; Silvestri, Stefano; Miligi, Lucia; Gorini, Giuseppe; Bressan, Vittoria; Girardi, Paolo; Ancona, Laura; Romeo, Elisa; Luberto, Ferdinando; Sala, Orietta; Scarnato, Corrado; Menegozzo, Simona; Oddone, Enrico; Tunesi, Sara; Perticaroli, Patrizia; Pettinari, Aldo; Cuccaro, Francesco; Mattioli, Stefano; Baldassarre, Antonio; Barone-Adesi, Francesco; Cena, Tiziana; Legittimo, Patrizia; Marinaccio, Alessandro; Mirabelli, Dario; Musti, Marina; Pirastu, Roberta; Ranucci, Alessandra; Magnani, Corrado

    2017-12-01

    Asbestos is a known human carcinogen, with evidence for malignant mesothelioma (MM), cancers of lung, ovary, larynx and possibly other organs. MM rates are predicted to increase with a power of time since first exposure (TSFE), but the possible long-term attenuation of the trend is debated. The asbestos ban enforced in Italy in 1992 gives an opportunity to measure long-term cancer risk in formerly exposed workers. Pool of 43 previously studied Italian asbestos cohorts (asbestos cement, rolling stock, shipbuilding), with mortality follow-up updated to 2010. SMRs were computed for the 1970â€"2010 period, for the major causes, with consideration of duration and TSFE, using reference rates by age, sex, region and calendar period. The study included 51 801 subjects (5741 women): 55.9% alive, 42.6% died (cause known for 95%) and 1.5% lost to follow-up. Mortality was significantly increased for all deaths (SMR: men: 1.05, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.06; women: 1.17, 95% CI to 1.12 to 1.22), all malignancies combined (SMR: men: 1.17, 95% CI to 1.14 to 1.20; women: 1.33, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.43), pleural and peritoneal malignancies (SMR: men: 13.28 and 4.77, 95% CI 12.24 to 14.37 and 4.00 to 5.64; women: 28.44 and 6.75, 95% CI 23.83 to 33.69 and 4.70 to 9.39), lung (SMR: men: 1.26, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.31; women: 1.43, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.78) and ovarian cancer (SMR=1.38, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.87) and asbestosis (SMR: men: 300.7, 95% CI 270.7 to 333.2; women: 389.6, 95% CI 290.1 to 512.3). Pleural cancer rate increased during the first 40 years of TSFE and reached a plateau after. The study confirmed the increased risk for cancer of the lung, ovary, pleura and peritoneum but not of the larynx and the digestive tract. Pleural cancer mortality reached a plateau at long TSFE, coherently with recent reports. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  6. Time trends in the incidence of hysterectomy-corrected overall, type 1 and type 2 endometrial cancer in Denmark 1978-2014

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Mette Tuxen; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Jensen, Allan

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate time trends in the incidence of overall, type 1 and type 2 endometrial cancer in Denmark 1978-2014, correcting for hysterectomy. METHODS: Based on the Danish Cancer Registry and the Danish National Patient Registry we calculated hysterectomy-corrected incidence rates...... of overall, type 1 and type 2 endometrial cancer. Separate analyses for women ...-linear Poisson models were used to estimate annual percentage change (APC) in incidence with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: The overall incidence of endometrial cancer decreased slightly from 1978 to 1995, but in the last two decades of the study period the incidence has been stable (APC=0.16; 95% CI...

  7. A Global and Regional Trend Study of the Vertical Distribution of Aerosols As Observed By Caliop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toth, T. D.; Zhang, J.; Campbell, J. R.; Reid, J. S.; Vaughan, M.

    2014-12-01

    Trends in atmospheric aerosol particle loading have gained increased attention in recent years due to their impact on Earth's radiation budget and global climate change. Past studies have examined this topic through aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations derived from passive satellite sensors such as Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR). However, such passive sensors acquire only column-integrated measurements and thus can provide no insight into the vertical distribution of any AOD trends they might detect. Yet knowledge of aerosol vertical distribution and trends are critical for studies involving aerosol climate impacts and air quality. Using seven and a half years (June 2006 - December 2013) of aerosol profile data from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), we investigate trends in CALIOP-derived AOD at various altitudes throughout the atmospheric column. This differs from existing CALIOP-based climatological studies that focus solely on the mean state of aerosol vertical distribution. Daytime and nighttime analyses are decoupled to account for differences in the vertical structure of the troposphere, and detection sensitivity of CALIOP, between the two regimes. The results of this study are presented globally and for selected regions. Of particular interest are North Africa and Asia, as these are areas with frequently high AOD and have also exhibited trends from passive sensor observations.

  8. Helicobacter pylori antibiotic resistance in a Dutch region: trends over time.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, M.J.R.; Hendrikse, L.; Boer, S.Y. de; Bosboom, R.; Boer, W.A. de; Laheij, R.J.F.; Jansen, J.B.M.J.

    2006-01-01

    AIM: Most patients treated for H. pylori infection receive empirical therapy based on epidemiological data of antibiotic resistance. However, previous European studies indicate that resistance patterns may be changing. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of primary

  9. Time trends in primary-care morbidity, hospitalization and mortality due to pneumonia.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gageldonk-Lafeber, A.B. van; Bogaerts, M.A.H.; Verheij, R.; Sande, M.A.B. van der

    2009-01-01

    Most studies reporting pneumonia morbidity are restricted to hospitalized patients, although only a minority of pneumonia patients are admitted to hospital. To get a better understanding of the burden of disease in the general population, we conducted a population-based retrospective study to

  10. Annoyance and Worry in a Petrochemical Industrial Area—Prevalence, Time Trends and Risk Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars Barregard

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available In 1992, 1998, and 2006, questionnaires were sent to stratified samples of residents aged 18–75 years living near petrochemical industries (n = 600–800 people on each occasion and in a control area (n = 200–1,000. The aims were to estimate the long-term prevalence and change over time of annoyance caused by industrial odour, industrial noise, and worries about possible health effects, and to identify risk indicators. In 2006, 20% were annoyed by industrial odour, 27% by industrial noise (1–4% in the control area, and 40–50% were worried about health effects or industrial accidents (10–20% in the control area. Multiple logistic regression analyses revealed significantly lower prevalence of odour annoyance in 1998 and 2006 than in 1992, while industrial noise annoyance increased significantly over time. The prevalence of worry remained constant. Risk of odour annoyance increased with female sex, worry of health effects, annoyance by motor vehicle exhausts and industrial noise. Industrial noise annoyance was associated with traffic noise annoyance and worry of health effects of traffic. Health-risk worry due to industrial air pollution was associated with female sex, having children, annoyance due to dust/soot in the air, and worry of traffic air pollution.

  11. Trends and advances in food analysis by real-time polymerase chain reaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salihah, Nur Thaqifah; Hossain, Mohammad Mosharraf; Lubis, Hamadah; Ahmed, Minhaz Uddin

    2016-05-01

    Analyses to ensure food safety and quality are more relevant now because of rapid changes in the quantity, diversity and mobility of food. Food-contamination must be determined to maintain health and up-hold laws, as well as for ethical and cultural concerns. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), a rapid and inexpensive quantitative method to detect the presence of targeted DNA-segments in samples, helps in determining both accidental and intentional adulterations of foods by biological contaminants. This review presents recent developments in theory, techniques, and applications of RT-PCR in food analyses, RT-PCR addresses the limitations of traditional food analyses in terms of sensitivity, range of analytes, multiplexing ability, cost, time, and point-of-care applications. A range of targets, including species of plants or animals which are used as food ingredients, food-borne bacteria or viruses, genetically modified organisms, and allergens, even in highly processed foods can be identified by RT-PCR, even at very low concentrations. Microfluidic RT-PCR eliminates the separate sample-processing step to create opportunities for point-of-care analyses. We also cover the challenges related to using RT-PCR for food analyses, such as the need to further improve sample handling.

  12. Spinal Cord Injury due to Tumour or Metastasis in Aragón, Northeastern Spain (1991–2008: Incidence, Time Trends, and Neurological Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maayken Elizabeth Louise van den Berg

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Understanding the presentation of spinal cord injury (SCI due to tumours considering population distribution and temporal trends is key to managing SCI health services. This study quantified incidence rates, function scores, and trends of SCI due to tumour or metastasis over an 18-year time period in a defined region in Spain. Methods. A retrospective cohort study included in-and outpatients with nontraumatic SCI due to tumour or metastasis admitted to a metropolitan hospital in Spain between 1991 and 2008. Main outcome measures were crude and age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates, tumour location and type, distribution by spinal level, neurological level of injury, and impairment ASIA scores. Results. Primary tumour or metastasis accounted for 32.5% of nontraumatic SCI with an incidence rate of 4.1 per million population. Increasing rates with age and over time were observed. Major pathology groups were intradural-extramedullary masses from which meningiomas and neurinomas accounted for 40%. Lesions were mostly incomplete with predominant ASIA Grade D. Conclusions. Increasing incidence rates of tumour-related SCI over time in the middle-aged and the elderly suggest a growing need for neurooncology health resources in the future.

  13. Trends and structural shifts in health tourism: evidence from seasonal time-series data on health-related travel spending by Canada during 1970-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loh, Chung-Ping A

    2015-05-01

    There has been a growing interest in better understanding the trends and determinants of health tourism activities. While much of the expanding literature on health tourism offers theoretical or qualitative discussion, empirical evidences has been lacking. This study employs Canada's outbound health tourism activities as an example to examine the trends in health tourism and its association with changing domestic health care market characteristics. A time-series model that accounts for potential structural changes in the trend is employed to analyze the quarterly health-related travel spending series reported in the Balance of Payments Statistics (BOPS) during 1970-2010 (n = 156). We identified a structural shift point which marks the start of an accelerated growth of health tourism and a flattened seasonality in such activities. We found that the health tourism activities of Canadian consumers increase when the private investment in medical facilities declines or when the private MPI increases during the years following the structural-change. We discussed the possible linkage of the structural shift to the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), which went into effect in January, 1995. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Trends over time in tree and seedling phylogenetic diversity indicate regional differences in forest biodiversity change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Kevin M; Woodall, Christopher W

    2012-03-01

    Changing climate conditions may impact the short-term ability of forest tree species to regenerate in many locations. In the longer term, tree species may be unable to persist in some locations while they become established in new places. Over both time frames, forest tree biodiversity may change in unexpected ways. Using repeated inventory measurements five years apart from more than 7000 forested plots in the eastern United States, we tested three hypotheses: phylogenetic diversity is substantially different from species richness as a measure of biodiversity; forest communities have undergone recent changes in phylogenetic diversity that differ by size class, region, and seed dispersal strategy; and these patterns are consistent with expected early effects of climate change. Specifically, the magnitude of diversity change across broad regions should be greater among seedlings than in trees, should be associated with latitude and elevation, and should be greater among species with high dispersal capacity. Our analyses demonstrated that phylogenetic diversity and species richness are decoupled at small and medium scales and are imperfectly associated at large scales. This suggests that it is appropriate to apply indicators of biodiversity change based on phylogenetic diversity, which account for evolutionary relationships among species and may better represent community functional diversity. Our results also detected broadscale patterns of forest biodiversity change that are consistent with expected early effects of climate change. First, the statistically significant increase over time in seedling diversity in the South suggests that conditions there have become more favorable for the reproduction and dispersal of a wider variety of species, whereas the significant decrease in northern seedling diversity indicates that northern conditions have become less favorable. Second, we found weak correlations between seedling diversity change and latitude in both zones

  15. Recommended next care following hospital-treated self-harm: Patterns and trends over time.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Arensman, Ella

    2018-01-01

    The specific objectives of this study were to examine variation in the care of self-harm patients in hospital settings and to identify the factors that predict recommended next care following self-harm.

  16. Set-up errors analyses in IMRT treatments for nasopharyngeal carcinoma to evaluate time trends, PTV and PRV margins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mongioj, Valeria (Dept. of Medical Physics, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale Tumori, Milan (Italy)), e-mail: valeria.mongioj@istitutotumori.mi.it; Orlandi, Ester (Dept. of Radiotherapy, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale Tumori, Milan (Italy)); Palazzi, Mauro (Dept. of Radiotherapy, A.O. Niguarda Ca' Granda, Milan (Italy)) (and others)

    2011-01-15

    Introduction. The aims of this study were to analyze the systematic and random interfractional set-up errors during Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) in 20 consecutive nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients by means of Electronic Portal Images Device (EPID), to define appropriate Planning Target Volume (PTV) and Planning Risk Volume (PRV) margins, as well as to investigate set-up displacement trend as a function of time during fractionated RT course. Material and methods. Before EPID clinical implementation, an anthropomorphic phantom was shifted intentionally 5 mm to all directions and the EPIs were compared with the digitally reconstructed radiographs (DRRs) to test the system's capability to recognize displacements observed in clinical studies. Then, 578 clinical images were analyzed with a mean of 29 images for each patient. Results. Phantom data showed that the system was able to correct shifts with an accuracy of 1 mm. As regards clinical data, the estimated population systematic errors were 1.3 mm for left-right (L-R), 1 mm for superior-inferior (S-I) and 1.1 mm for anterior-posterior (A-P) directions, respectively. Population random errors were 1.3 mm, 1.5 mm and 1.3 mm for L-R, S-I and A-P directions, respectively. PTV margin was at least 3.4, 3 and 3.2 mm for L-R, S-I and A-P direction, respectively. PRV margins for brainstem and spinal cord were 2.3, 2 and 2.1 mm and 3.8, 3.5 and 3.2 mm for L-R, A-P and S-I directions, respectively. Set-up error displacements showed no significant changes as the therapy progressed (p>0.05), although displacements >3 mm were found more frequently when severe weight loss or tumor nodal shrinkage occurred. Discussion. These results enable us to choose margins that guarantee with sufficient accuracy the coverage of PTVs and organs at risk sparing. Collected data confirmed the need for a strict check of patient position reproducibility in case of anatomical changes

  17. Time trends in peptic ulcer, erosive reflux oesophagitis, gastric and oesophageal cancers in a multiracial Asian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goh, K-L; Wong, H-T; Lim, C-H; Rosaida, M S

    2009-04-01

    Dramatic changes in the prevalence and pattern of gastrointestinal disease has taken place in Asia in recent years. To compare the prevalence of duodenal (DU) and gastric ulcers (GU), erosive oesophagitis (EO), gastric cancer (GCA) and oesophageal cancer (OCA) and Helicobacter pylori infection over a 10-year interval of time in a multiracial South-East Asian population. Endoscopy records of first time gastroscopy in the University of Malaya Medical Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia were reviewed for 1989/1990 and 1999/2000. In the period of 1989-1990, 3252 records and in 1999-2000, 4615 records were analysed. Both DU (21.1-9.5%) and GU (11.9-9.4%) had decreased significantly (P < 0.001). EO had increased significantly from 2.0% to 8.4% (P < 0.001). Both GCA and OCA had declined in the 10-year interval. Helicobacter pylori prevalence had decreased from 51.7% to 30.3% (P < 0.001).The decrease in DU and GU was seen in all racial groups. The increase in EO was most marked in Indians and the decrease in GCA in Chinese. The proportion of H. pylori-associated DU and GU had also decreased with time. Peptic ulcers and H. pylori infection had declined over a 10-year period of time and showed an opposing time trend with EO, which had increased dramatically. Both GCA and OCA had declined in prevalence.

  18. Total factor productivity (TFP) growth agriculture in pakistan: trends in different time horizons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, A.; Mushtaq, K.; Ashfaq, M.

    2008-01-01

    The present study estimated total factor productivity (TFP) growth of agriculture sector of Pakistan for the period 1971-2006 by employing Tornqvist-Theil (T-T) index number methodology. Most of the conventional inputs were used in constructing the input index. The output index includes major crops, minor crops, important fruits and vegetables and four categories of livestock products. The study estimated TFP growth rates for different decades. The results showed that TFP growth rate was lowest during the decade of 70s (0.96 percent) and highest during the last six years of the study period (2.86 percent). The decade of 80s and 90s registered TFP growth rate of 2.24 percent and 2.46 percent, respectively. The results also explained that TFP growth contributed about 33 percent to total agricultural output growth during the decade of 70s and this contribution increased up to 83 percent during the last six years of the study period. The contribution of TFP growth to total agricultural output growth was 53 and 81 percent during the decades of 80s and 90s, respectively. The study observed that macro level government policies, institutional factors and weather conditions are the major key factors that influenced TFP growth. (author)

  19. Estimated and forecasted trends in domain specific time-use and energy expenditure among adults in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Examination of historical trends and projections in estimated energy expenditure in Russia is important given the country’s economic downturns and growth. Methods Nationally representative data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) from 1995–2011 was used to determine the metabolic equivalents of task (MET)-hours per week from occupational, domestic, travel, and active leisure physical activity (PA) domains, as well as sedentary leisure time (hours per week) among adults 18–60 years. Additionally, we projected what these values would be like in 2020 and 2030 if observed trends continue. Results Among male adults, the largest contributor to total PA was occupational PA followed by travel PA. In contrast, domestic PA followed by occupational PA contributed most to total PA among female adults. Total PA was 282.9 MET-hours per week in 1995 and declined to 231.7 in 2011. Total PA is projected to decrease to 216.5 MET-hours per week in 2020 and to 193.0 MET-hours per week in 2030. The greatest relative declines are occurring in travel PA. Female adults are also exhibiting significant declines in domestic PA. Changes in occupational and active leisure PA are less distinct. Conclusions Policies and initiatives are needed to counteract the long-term decline of overall physical activity linked with a modernizing lifestyle and economy among Russian adults. PMID:24475868

  20. Estimated and forecasted trends in domain specific time-use and energy expenditure among adults in Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dearth-Wesley, Tracy; Popkin, Barry M; Ng, Shu Wen

    2014-01-30

    Examination of historical trends and projections in estimated energy expenditure in Russia is important given the country's economic downturns and growth. Nationally representative data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) from 1995-2011 was used to determine the metabolic equivalents of task (MET)-hours per week from occupational, domestic, travel, and active leisure physical activity (PA) domains, as well as sedentary leisure time (hours per week) among adults 18-60 years. Additionally, we projected what these values would be like in 2020 and 2030 if observed trends continue. Among male adults, the largest contributor to total PA was occupational PA followed by travel PA. In contrast, domestic PA followed by occupational PA contributed most to total PA among female adults. Total PA was 282.9 MET-hours per week in 1995 and declined to 231.7 in 2011. Total PA is projected to decrease to 216.5 MET-hours per week in 2020 and to 193.0 MET-hours per week in 2030. The greatest relative declines are occurring in travel PA. Female adults are also exhibiting significant declines in domestic PA. Changes in occupational and active leisure PA are less distinct. Policies and initiatives are needed to counteract the long-term decline of overall physical activity linked with a modernizing lifestyle and economy among Russian adults.

  1. Seasonality of hair loss: a time series analysis of Google Trends data 2004 to 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiang, E Y; Semenov, Y R; Aguh, C; Kwatra, S G

    2017-10-19

    Hair loss is a frequently encountered dermatologic complaint that often generates psychological distress. Prior studies have demonstrated a seasonal pattern to hair loss. Maximal proportions of telogen hair have been found to occur in the summer, whereas lowest rates of telogen hairs occur in the winter. Additionally, a recent study demonstrated that maximal hair shedding occurs in August and September, and that the percentage of hairs in the anagen phase peaks at the beginning of spring. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  2. Gender-related difference, geographical variation and time trend in dietary cadmium intake in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, T.; Shimbo, S.; Nakatsuka, H.; Koizumi, A.; Higashikawa, K.; Matsuda-Inoguchi, N.; Ikeda, M.

    2004-01-01

    Objectives: The present analysis was initiated to examine possible gender-dependency, geographic variation, and time-dependent changes in dietary intake of cadmium (Cd-F) among general populations in Cd-non-polluted areas in Japan. The role of rice as Cd-F source was also within the scope. Methods: Two databases on Cd and nutritional analyses were re-visited. Both databases were established through collection of 24-h food duplicate portion samples from residents in areas with no known Cd pollution, and contained information on Cd and energy contents in the duplicate portion, together with daily rice consumption, the gender, the age and the location of the residence of each sample donor. The first and the second databases were established through surveys in the years around 1980 on 564 cases and around 1995 on 702 cases, respectively. The two databases were combined for evaluation by multiple regression (MRA) and other analyses. Results: The analyses showed that men tended to take more Cd than women, more clearly so in the 1980 survey than in the 1995 survey. When Cd-F in the 1995 survey was compared with that in the 1980 survey, a substantial decrease was observed, e.g. by 30% (from 37.5 to 26.2 μg/day) in case of women. Cd-F values varied subject to the survey sites in a wide range (e.g. from 20 to 86 μg/day among women in the 1980 survey). In MRA with Cd-F as a dependent variable and survey sites and food intake factors (e.g. rice and energy intakes) as independent variables, the survey sites could explain more than 53% and 35% of total variation in Cd-F in the 1980 and 1995 surveys, respectively. Rice consumption was also influential to Cd-F in both surveys with partial correlation coefficients of 0.36 and 0.21, respectively, the influence being stronger in the 1980 survey than in the 1995 survey. A significant correlation was detected between the 1980 and 1995 survey results both in Cd-F and in rice consumption. Conclusion: Geographic and gender

  3. Timing coincidence studies with fast photomultipliers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raoof, M.A.; Raoof, S.A.

    1981-01-01

    The time response of RCA C70045D photomultipliers was studied using a subnanosecond light flasher. The tubes, which have an output rise time of approximately 0.5 ns, were used in coincidence to study the variations in the fwhm of the time spectrum over a certain dynamic range of pulse amplitudes for both leading edge and constant fraction discrimination. A comparison has also been made for the measured time resolutions with some of the other fast photomultipliers. (orig.)

  4. Time-depth and velocity trend analysis of the Wasagu field ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It is known in the North Sea basin that depths to major reflectors as determined from surface seismic data are often larger than the well depths. From this study of data sets from Wasagu field in the Niger Delta, it has been found that this statement might not hold in an area where rapid lateral variations in the subsurface ...

  5. Time trend analysis of return to work after stroke in Denmark 1996-2006

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hannerz, Harald; Mortensen, Ole S; Poulsen, Otto M

    2012-01-01

    In the period 1997-2005, the Danish government initiated a series of legislative changes aimed at facilitating RTW (return to work) in the Danish population. In the present study, we investigated the odds of being gainfully occupied ca. two years after stroke as a function of onset calendar year...

  6. The Lives and Times of the Narragansett Bay Benthos: Biodiversity Trends over 182 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narragansett Bay has high benthic invertebrate biodiversity that supports many ecosystem functions and services. A master list was compiled of all benthic species collected from the Bay beginning in 1862, including a U.S. Bureau of Commercial Fisheries survey in 1871 and studies ...

  7. Fatal methadone and heroin overdoses : Time trends in England and Wales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neeleman, J; Farrell, M

    Study objective-Although the total number of self poisonings in England and Wales has dropped by 32%, the number involving methadone and/or heroin rose by 900% in 1974-92. Because of concern about the role of methadone in this increase, the part played by methadone and heroin in poisoning deaths in

  8. Active travel to work in NSW: trends over time and the effect of social advantage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zander, Alexis; Rissel, Chris; Rogers, Kris; Bauman, Adrian

    2014-12-01

    Active travel can increase population levels of physical activity, but should be promoted equitably. Socio-economic advantage, housing location and/or car ownership influence walking and cycling (active travel) for transport. We examined active commuting over time in the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Region, and associations between active commuting and socioeconomic advantage, urban/rural location and car ownership at a Local Government Area (LGA) level across New South Wales (NSW). Journey to work data from the 2001, 2006 and 2011 Australian Census were examined. Associations between levels of active commuting in each LGA in NSW and the Socio-Economic Index for Areas (SEIFA), Accessibility/Remoteness Index of Australia (ARIA) and car ownership were examined using negative binomial regression modelling. Between 2001 and 2011, active commuting increased in inner Sydney (relative increase of 24%), decreased slightly in outer Sydney (declined 5.1%) and declined in the Greater Metropolitan Region (down 15%). Overall, active commuting increased slightly (6.8% relative increase). After adjusting for the LGA age and sex profile and all other LGA variables, people living in NSW LGAs with high socioeconomic status, more rural areas and low car ownership were more likely to cycle or walk to work. More needs to be done in NSW to increase levels of active commuting consistently across regions and socio-demographic groups. SO WHAT?: Despite small increases in active travel in the Sydney region, active travel patterns are not evenly distributed across locations or populations.

  9. Energy contribution to Latin American INDCs: Analyzing sub-regional trends with a TIMES model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Postic, Sebastien; Selosse, Sandrine; Maïzi, Nadia

    2017-01-01

    Central and South America and the Caribbean countries share energy and climate features that are quite different from the rest of the world, including a highly renewable energy mix and very high renewable energy potentials, along with high deforestation and degradation rates which call for regional answers to regional issues. This paper assesses the impact of national contributions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change using an energy prospective model from the MarkAl/TIMES family. This approach enables a bottom-up comparison between past pledges (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions) and the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) agreed on at COP21. Long-term economic optimization leads to decarbonizing the power sector even in the absence of climate constraints. Stringent climate policies as modeled here achieve emission reductions of 40% below the current baseline by 2050. NDCs produce stronger emission reductions than NAMAs at regional scale; however, the first contributor to emission reductions in absolute terms in Latin America is the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-Use (AFOLU) sector, not energy. - Highlights: • We analyze energy-bound climate mitigation in Latin America with a bottom-up model. • We derive five policy scenarios based on past and current pledges to the UNFCCC. • Despite a clean BAU power mix, the region can cut emissions by up to 40% by 2050. • INDCs lead to stronger emission reductions than former NAMAs. • Energy-only measures would overlook significant abatement potential in AFOLU.

  10. Adolescents in speciality mental health services (BUP): time trends, referral problems, and co-occuring conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Reigstad, Bjørn Steinar

    2007-01-01

    Traditionally, research on mental health problems among children and adolescents has focused mainly on prevalences and predictors of stability and changes in these disorders. Less is known about associated conditions as referral problems, and cooccurring conditions as pain and sleep disturbances, and psychosocial adversities like abuse and neglect. The purpose of this study is to focus on these less investigated problems and conditions which might be highly significant in day-to-day clinical ...

  11. Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study and Gendered Math Teaching in Kuwait

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Fatimah; Greenhalgh-Spencer, Heather

    2017-01-01

    This paper argues for a more complex literature around gender and math performance. In order to argue for this complexity, we present a small portion of data from a case study examining the performance of Kuwaiti students on the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study and on Kuwait national math tests. Westernized discourses suggest…

  12. Trends in marketing library services in urban areas: A case study of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article presents the findings of a study that was undertaken in Kampala City, Uganda, in nine libraries belonging to the private sector, government, academic and diplomatic- related institutions. The aim of the study was to establish trends in marketing library services in urban areas with a view to identify marketing ...

  13. International trends in antipsychotic use : A study in 16 countries, 2005-2014

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hálfdánarson, Óskar; Zoëga, Helga; Aagaard, Lise; Bernardo, Miquel; Brandt, Lena; Fusté, Anna Coma; Furu, Kari; Garuoliené, Kristina; Hoffmann, Falk; Huybrechts, Krista F; Kalverdijk, Luuk J; Kawakami, Koji; Kieler, Helle; Kinoshita, Takuya; Litchfield, Melisa; López, Soffy C; Machado-Alba, Jorge E; Machado-Duque, Manuel E; Mahesri, Mufaddal; Nishtala, Prasad S; Pearson, Sallie-Anne; Reutfors, Johan; Saastamoinen, Leena K; Sato, Izumi; Schuiling-Veninga, Catharina C. M.; Shyu, Yu-Chiau; Skurtveit, Svetlana; Verdoux, Hélène; Wang, Liang-Jen; Yahni, Corinne Zara; Bachmann, Christian J

    2017-01-01

    The objective of this study was to assess international trends in antipsychotic use, using a standardised methodology. A repeated cross-sectional design was applied to data extracts from the years 2005 to 2014 from 16 countries worldwide. During the study period, the overall prevalence of

  14. Trends in use and outcome of postoperative radiotherapy following mastectomy: A population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corradini, Stefanie; Bauerfeind, Ingo; Belka, Claus; Braun, Michael; Combs, Stephanie E; Eckel, Renate; Harbeck, Nadia; Hölzel, Dieter; Kiechle, Marion; Niyazi, Maximilian; Engel, Jutta

    2017-01-01

    The objective of the present population-based study was to evaluate the role and effectiveness of postmastectomy radiation therapy (PMRT) in clinical practice. The study included 16,675 patients diagnosed with invasive breast cancer from 1988 to 2012 and resident within the catchment area of the Munich Cancer Registry. Use of PMRT, local recurrence-free survival (LRFS), cumulative incidence of time to local recurrence, relative survival and conditional overall survival (cOS), were analysed for different time periods (1988-1997 and 1998-2012). Variables favouring the use of PMRT on multivariate logistic regression analysis included young age, large tumour size, positive resection margin and positive nodal status. Over time, a significant increase of PMRT was registered for patients with ⩾4 positive lymph nodes. Moreover, the present findings track a less frequent use of PMRT in elderly patients. After adjusting for age, tumour characteristics and therapies, the Cox regression analysis for LRFS identified PMRT as an independent predictor for improved local control (HR: 2.145; 95% CI: 1.787-2.574, pfollowing mastectomy, compared to 6.5% following PMRT (p=0.0001). Comparable findings were obtained for patients presenting with ⩾4 positive lymph nodes. All effects were smaller or extinct in elderly patients aged ⩾70years. On multivariate analysis for cOS, no significant advantage for PMRT could be detected (HR: 1.084; 95% CI: 0.986-1.191, p=0.095). The present study was useful in providing an overview on trends in the adoption of PMRT over a 25-year period. An increase in the use of PMRT from 1988 to 2012 was observed, especially in high-risk patients with ⩾4 positive lymph nodes. Patients selected for PMRT had an improved local control and an equivalent relative survival compared to patients who had no indication for PMRT. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Using Discrete Wavelet Transform for Trend Analysis and Oscillatory Patterns Identification of Temperature (Case Study: Mashhad Synoptic Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.R. Araghi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Studying long-term trend changes of meteorological parameters is one of the routine methods in atmospheric studies, especially in the climate change subject. Among the meteorological parameters, temperature is always considered as one of the most atmospheric elements and studying it in order to gain a better understanding of the climate change phenomenon, has been effective. In addition to identifying trends, extraction of oscillatory patterns in the atmospheric phenomena and parameters occurrence can be an applicable and reliable method to explore the complex relations between atmospheric-oceanic cycles and short term or long term consequences of meteorological parameters. Materials and Methods: In this paper, monthly average temperature time series in Mashhad synoptic station in 55 years period (from 1956 to 2010 in monthly, seasonal, annual and seasons separately (winter, spring, summer and autumn have been analyzed. Discrete wavelet transform and Mann-Kendall trend test were the main methods for performing this research. Wavelet transform is a powerful method in signal processing and it is an advanced version of short time Fourier transforms. Moreover, it has many improvements and more capabilities compared with Fourier transform. In the first step, temperature time series in various time scales (which was mentioned above have been decomposed via discrete wavelet transforms into approximation (A and detail (D components. For the second step, Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to the various combinations of these decomposed components. For detecting the most dominant periodic component for each of the time scales datasets, results of Mann-Kendall test for the original time series and the decomposed components were compared to each other. The nearest value indicated the most dominant periodicity based on the D component’s level. To detect the similarity between results of the Mann-Kendall test, relative error method was

  16. Fatal and non-fatal fire injuries in England 1995-2004: time trends and inequalities by age, sex and area deprivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulvaney, C; Kendrick, D; Towner, E; Brussoni, M; Hayes, M; Powell, J; Robertson, S; Ward, H

    2009-03-01

    To examine time trends and deprivation gradients in fire-related deaths and injuries. A cross-sectional study and time trend analysis using data on fire casualties in England between 1995 and 2004 obtained from the Department for Communities and Local Government. Injury rates were calculated assuming a Poisson distribution. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated to compare changes in deprivation gradients over time. There were significant reductions in fatal and non-fatal fire injuries in children (fatal injuries IRR chi(2)(1) = 11.18, P fire deaths were most commonly caused by smokers' materials (e.g. cigarettes, cigars and tobacco), and cigarette lighters and matches, respectively. Cooking appliances caused most non-fatal fire injuries. Injury rates increased with increasing levels of deprivation and deprivation gradients did not change over 10 years. Fire prevention interventions should promote the safe use of cooking and heating appliances and the responsible use of smokers' materials, lighters and matches, and should target those at greater risk of fire, including the socially disadvantaged.

  17. Increased use of oral contraceptives in Spain: related factors and time trend, 2003-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrasco-Garrido, Pilar; Hernández Barrera, Valentín; Martin-Lopez, Rocio; López de Andrés, Ana; Esteban Hernandez, Jesús; Jiménez-García, Rodrigo

    2011-02-01

    We aimed to determine the prevalence of consumption of oral contraceptives (OCs) among women living in Spain and to identify the factors associated with this consumption. Descriptive cross-sectional epidemiologic study on consumption of OCs by women aged 16-50 years resident in Spain. As the dependent variable, we took the answer to the question, "In the last two weeks, have you taken the contraceptives pill?" Independent variables were sociodemographic, comorbidity, and healthcare resources. Using logistic multivariate regression models, we have analyzed the temporal evolution of OCs consumption between 2003 and 2006. We used secondary individualized data drawn from the 2003 (n=5,807) and 2006 (n=9,103) Spanish National Health Surveys. In 2003, the 4.99% of women reported having taken the contraceptive pill; this proportion increased to 9.44% in 2006 (PWe can conclude that there was a significant increase in OC use among women living in Spain from 2003 to 2006. The OC consumers in our study were young women who visited the gynecologist and took preventive measures such as smear testing, although they did have risk variables associated with OC, such as alcohol use and arterial hypertension. © 2010 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

  18. Is the Second Time the Charm? Investigating Trends in Online Re-enrollment, Retention and Success

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alyse C. Hachey

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Online education is becoming an increasingly important component of higher education. The Sloan Foundation 2010 Survey of Online Learning reports that more than 30% of all students take at least one online course during their college career. Because of this, attention is now turning to the quality of student outcomes that this instructional method provides. However, there is a huge gap in empirical investigations devoted to the link between technology and performance indicators such as grade performance, re-enrollment and course completion (Nora & Plazas Snyder, 2008. This study found that prior online course experience is strongly correlated with future online course success. In fact, knowing a student’s prior online course success explains 13.2% of the variation in retention and 24.8% of the variation in online success in our sample, a large effect size. Students who have not successfully completed any previous online courses have very low success and retention rates, and students who have successfully completed all prior online courses have fairly high success and retention rates. Therefore, this study suggests that additional support services need to be provided to previously unsuccessful online learners, while students who succeed online should be encouraged to enroll in additional online courses in order to increase retention and success rates in online learning.

  19. Finding Time for Faculties to Study Together.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Carlene

    1997-01-01

    Describes how various schools nationwide have carved study time out of their schedules in order to make professional development a seamless part of their work day, noting how many schools find it difficult to create this study time. These whole-faculty study groups work seriously and purposefully to increase teachers' knowledge and skills. (SM)

  20. Time trends in socioeconomic inequalities in oral health among 15-year-old Danish adolescents during 1995–2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sengupta, Kaushik; Christensen, Lisa Bøge; Mortensen, Laust Hvas

    Background: Scandinavian welfare states, despite having better population oral health when compared to less egalitarian societies, are characterized by ubiquitous social gradients and large relative socioeconomic inequalities in oral health. However, time trends in these inequalities among...... at Statistics Denmark. SEP measures included previous year’s parental education (highest attained educational level between the parents), income (equivalized household disposable income), and occupational social class (highest recorded occupational class between the parents). Covariates were immigration status......, country of origin, number of children and persons in the family, and household type. The outcome was dental caries experience, determined by the decayed, missing, and filled surfaces (DMFS) index. Negative binomial regression models were used to examine the association between DMFS count and each...

  1. Time Trends and Variations in Electroconvulsive Treatment in Denmark 2008 to 2014

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hundrup, Eva; Osler, Merete; Jørgensen, Martin Balslev

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine status and variations in the practice of electroconvulsive treatment (ECT) in Denmark in patient characteristics, indications, treatment patterns, and hospital region. METHOD: All 140,627 ECTs registered in the Danish National Patient Registry...... between 2008 and 2014 were retrieved together with information on patient characteristics. Annual treated person rates were calculated for sex, age, admission diagnosis, and region. RESULTS: The overall ECT treatment rate was 36 (95% confidence interval, 34-38) per 100,000 resident population during...... number of ECTs administered per patient was 10 and highest in patients with schizophrenia, schizoaffective, or bipolar disorders. A total of 51%, 14%, and 33% of ECTs were administered with bilateral, unilateral, and unspecified electrode placement, respectively. There were regional differences...

  2. The main trends of dynamics of incomes of Russians in times of economic crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. L. Petryakova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A research objective which result was this article is the analysis of dynamics of the income of families during the last economic crisis in Russia and influence of change of the standard of living on performance by a family of the main functions, first of all reproductive, zhizneokhranitelny and educational. Now quite steady growth of birth rate, improvement of the indicators characterizing family trouble (refusals of the born children, deprivation of the parental rights, deviant behavior of children and teenagers and health of children and teenagers is observed, however, as a result of decrease in the standard of living, increase in employment of parents, violation of this favorable tendency is possible. The research is based on the analysis of statistical and sociological information, including results of polls of the population, in him the research of ranks of dynamics, graphic and tabular methods is applied. In article sources of the income of the population, first of all – the salary and social payments exerting the greatest impact on the level of the income in general are considered. On the basis of the carried-out analysis the main tendencies characterizing extent of fall of the income of families with children proceeding from this research are formulated, it is possible to speak about increase of needs of families in measures of economic support. However, at the same time becomes the negative moment on the one hand, extremely low knowledge of families of already available measures of such help, and with another – their low assessment and unwillingness to participate in these or those programs offered by the state. In turn it is the factor worsening financial position of families too. High prosperity, material security still (as well as the 90th years, as well as at the beginning of this century are on an equal basis with a family and children the leading value of Russians. It is connected, first of all

  3. Could Trends in Time Children Spend with Parents Help Explain the Black-White Gap in Human Capital? Evidence from the American Time Use Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Richard W.

    2017-01-01

    It is widely believed that the time children spend with parents significantly impacts human capital formation. If time varies significantly between black and white children, this may help explain the large racial gap in test scores and wages. In this study, I use data from the American Time Use Survey to examine the patterns in the time black and…

  4. Time Trend of the People lost follow up on Antiretroviral Therapy (ART Services in Nepal: A Epidemiological Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brijesh Sathian

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: The real state about the spread of the HIV epidemic in Nepal is not clear since the details available are on the basis of repeated integrated biological and behavioral surveillance. Objective To study the trends of People lost follow up on ART in future. Material and methods: A retrospective study was carried out on the data collected from the Health ministry records of Nepal, between 2006 and 2012. Descriptive statistics and statistical modelling were used for the analysis and forecasting of data. Results: Including the constant term from the equation, the quadratic model was the best fit, for the forecasting of People lost follow up on ART. Using quadratic equation, it is estimated that 4331 reported number of People lost follow up on ART will be there in Nepal by the year 2020. Conclusion: The People lost follow up on ART in Nepal are having an increasing trend. Estimates of the total number of People lost follow up on ART attributable to the major routes of infection make an important contribution to public health policy. They can be used for the planning of healthcare services and for contributing to estimates of the future numbers with People lost follow up on ART used for planning health promotion programmes.

  5. Differences between Men and Women in Time Trends in Lung Cancer Mortality in Spain (1980-2013).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín-Sánchez, Juan Carlos; Clèries, Ramon; Lidón-Moyano, Cristina; González-de Paz, Luis; Martínez-Sánchez, Jose M

    2016-06-01

    The main risk factor for lung cancer is smoking, a habit that varies according to age and sex. The objective of this study was to explore trends in lung cancer mortality by sex and age from 1980 to 2013 in Spain. We used lung cancer mortality (International Classification of Diseases code 162 for the 9th edition, and codes C33 and C34 for 10th edition) and population data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Crude, truncated, age-adjusted mortality and age-specific mortality rates were assessed through joinpoint regression to estimate the annual percent change (APC). Age-adjusted mortality rate significantly increased from 1980 to 1991 among men (APC=3.12%) and significantly decreased between 2001 and 2013 (APC=-1.53%), a similar pattern was observed in age-specific rates. Among women, age-adjusted mortality rate increased from 1989 (APC 1989-1997=1.82%), with the greatest increase observed from 1997 until the end of the study in 2013 (APC=4.41%). Diverging trends in the prevalence of smoking could explain the increase in the rate of lung cancer-related mortality among Spanish women since the early 1990s. Public health policies should be implemented to reduce tobacco consumption in women and halt the increase in lung cancer mortality. Copyright © 2016 SEPAR. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  6. Time Trends in Helicobacter pylori Infection and Atrophic Gastritis Over 40 Years in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamada, Tomoari; Haruma, Ken; Ito, Masanori; Inoue, Kazuhiko; Manabe, Noriaki; Matsumoto, Hiroshi; Kusunoki, Hiroaki; Hata, Jiro; Yoshihara, Masaharu; Sumii, Koji; Akiyama, Takashi; Tanaka, Shinji; Shiotani, Akiko; Graham, David Y

    2015-06-01

    Helicobacter pylori infection produces progressive mucosal damage that may eventually result in gastric cancer. We studied the changes that occurred in the presence and severity of atrophic gastritis and the prevalence of H. pylori infection that occurred coincident with improvements in economic and hygienic conditions in Japan since World War II. The prevalence of H. pylori infection and histologic grades of gastric damage were retrospectively evaluated using gastric biopsy specimens obtained over a 40-year period. Gastric atrophy and intestinal metaplasia were scored using the updated Sydney classification system. The prevalence of H. pylori and severity of atrophy were examined in 1381 patients including 289 patients examined in the 1970s (158 men; mean age, 44.9 years), 787 in the 1990s (430 men; 44.2 years), and 305 in the 2010s (163 men; 53.2 years). Overall, the prevalence of H. pylori infection decreased significantly from 74.7% (1970s) to 53% (1990s) and 35.1% (2010s) (p pylori infection. There has been a progressive and rapid decline in the prevalence of H. pylori infection as well a fall in the rate of progression of gastric atrophy among H. pylori-infected Japanese coincident with the westernization and improvements in economic and hygienic conditions in Japan since World War II. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Diffuse malignant pleural mesothelioma in an urban hospital: Clinical spectrum and trend in incidence over time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shepherd, K.E.; Oliver, L.C.; Kazemi, H.

    1989-01-01

    This retrospective analysis reviews the clinical experience of a major urban referral hospital with diffuse malignant pleural mesothelioma during the 14-year period from 1973 through 1986. Seventy-five cases of definite or equivocal mesothelioma were identified. There were four cases of primary malignant peritoneal mesothelioma, seven cases of benign fibrous mesothelioma, and 64 cases of diffuse malignant pleural mesothelioma. In 43 cases (67%) of diffuse malignant pleural mesothelioma, there was historic evidence of asbestos exposure. In 21 cases (33%), there was no known history of asbestos exposure. An increase in annual incidence of diffuse malignant pleural mesothelioma was observed over the study period, from three cases in 1973 to ten cases in 1986. Despite greater awareness of this disease, the diagnosis remains a difficult one to establish given the nonspecific symptoms, signs and radiographic appearance, variable histologic appearance, and poor diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of thoracentesis and closed pleural biopsy. Thoracotomy, thoracoscopy, and CT-guided needle biopsies gave higher yields and are the diagnostic measures of choice when diffuse malignant pleural mesothelioma is suspected

  8. In search of functional association from time-series microarray data based on the change trend and level of gene expression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeng An-Ping

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The increasing availability of time-series expression data opens up new possibilities to study functional linkages of genes. Present methods used to infer functional linkages between genes from expression data are mainly based on a point-to-point comparison. Change trends between consecutive time points in time-series data have been so far not well explored. Results In this work we present a new method based on extracting main features of the change trend and level of gene expression between consecutive time points. The method, termed as trend correlation (TC, includes two major steps: 1, calculating a maximal local alignment of change trend score by dynamic programming and a change trend correlation coefficient between the maximal matched change levels of each gene pair; 2, inferring relationships of gene pairs based on two statistical extraction procedures. The new method considers time shifts and inverted relationships in a similar way as the local clustering (LC method but the latter is merely based on a point-to-point comparison. The TC method is demonstrated with data from yeast cell cycle and compared with the LC method and the widely used Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC based clustering method. The biological significance of the gene pairs is examined with several large-scale yeast databases. Although the TC method predicts an overall lower number of gene pairs than the other two methods at a same p-value threshold, the additional number of gene pairs inferred by the TC method is considerable: e.g. 20.5% compared with the LC method and 49.6% with the PCC method for a p-value threshold of 2.7E-3. Moreover, the percentage of the inferred gene pairs consistent with databases by our method is generally higher than the LC method and similar to the PCC method. A significant number of the gene pairs only inferred by the TC method are process-identity or function-similarity pairs or have well-documented biological

  9. Cranial Nerve Injury After Carotid Endarterectomy: Incidence, Risk Factors, and Time Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakisis, J D; Antonopoulos, C N; Mantas, G; Moulakakis, K G; Sfyroeras, G; Geroulakos, G

    2017-03-01

    To review the incidence of post-carotid endarterectomy (CEA) cranial nerve injury (CNI), and to evaluate the risk factors associated with increased CNI risk. The study was a meta-analysis. Pooled rates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for CNIs after primary CEA. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated for potential risk factors. A fixed-effects model or a random effects model (Mantel-Haenszel method) was used for non-heterogeneous and heterogeneous data, respectively. Meta-regression analysis was performed to examine the influence of publication year upon CNI rate. Twenty-six articles, published between 1970 and 2015, were included in the meta-analysis, corresponding to 20,860 CEAs. Meta-analysis revealed that the vagus nerve was the most frequently injured cranial nerve (pooled injury rate 3.99%, 95% CI 2.56-5.70), followed by the hypoglossal nerve (3.79%, 95% CI 2.73-4.99). Fewer than one seventh of these injuries are permanent (vagus nerve: 0.57% [95% CI 0.19-1.10]; hypoglossal nerve: 0.15% [95% CI 0.01-0.39]). A statistically significant influence of publication year on the vagus and hypoglossal nerve injury rate was found, with the injury rate having decreased from about 8% to 2% and 1%, respectively, over the last 35 years. Urgent procedures (OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.21-2.10; p = .001), as well as return to the operating room for a neurological event or bleeding (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.35-3.61; p = .002) were associated with an increased risk of CNI, whereas no statistically significant association was found between CNIs and the type of anaesthesia, the use of a patch, redo operation, and the use of a shunt. The vagus nerve appears to be the most frequently injured cranial nerve after CEA, followed by the hypoglossal nerve, with only a small proportion of these injuries being permanent. The CNI rate has significantly decreased over the past 35 years to a point indicating that CNIs should not be considered a major influencing factor in the decision making

  10. Spatiotemporal trends in ground-level ozone concentrations and metrics in France over the time period 1999-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sicard, Pierre; Serra, Romain; Rossello, Philippe

    2016-08-01

    exposure metrics, the issue of non-attainment of the target value for O3 persists in comparison with the objectives of air quality directives. The region at highest O3 risk is the South-eastern France. This study contains new information on the i) spatial distribution of surface O3 concentration, ii) exceedances and iii) trends to define more suitable standards for human health and environmental protection in France. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Evidence of increasing sedentarism in Mexico City during the last decade: Sitting time prevalence, trends, and associations with obesity and diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, Catalina; Tolentino-Mayo, Lizbeth; López-Ridaura, Ruy; Barquera, Simón

    2017-01-01

    Sedentary behaviors such as sitting time are associated with obesity and diabetes independently of total reported physical activity. This study aimed to describe the current sitting time/day prevalence and trends and to examine the association of sitting time with sociodemographic and clinical variables in Mexico City. Two cross-sectional representative surveys in Mexico City were used for this analysis (2006: n = 1148 and 2015: n = 1329). Sedentary behavior questions from the International Physical Activity Questionnaire included time spent sitting on a weekday in the last week or on a Wednesday. Sitting time /day was divided into deciles, and participants in the highest decile (≥ 420 minutes/day) were classified within the high sitting category; others were classified in the low sitting time category. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the associations of sitting time with sociodemographic and clinical indicators, controlling for confounders and testing for potential interactions. A total of 13.7% (2006) and 14.8% (2015) adults were classified in the highest sitting time category (≥ 420 minutes/day). There was a significant increase in the average sitting time/day between the surveys (216.0 minutes in 2006 vs. 233.3 minutes in 2015, p obesity (OR = 2.37, 95% CI: 1.11, 5.09) and those with high glucose levels (survey finding) (OR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.04, 5.25) were more likely to report sitting time in the highest category. Sitting time/day prevalence increased 8%, and average daily sitting minutes significantly increased by 8.2% (18 minutes) in the nine-year study period (2006-2015). Current public health policies should consider strategies not only for increasing physical activity levels, but also for reducing sitting time/day among the population as a measure to fight the growing epidemic of obesity and diabetes in Mexico.

  12. Spatio-Temporal Trends of Fire in Slash and Burn Agriculture Landscape: A Case Study from Nagaland, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padalia, H.; Mondal, P. P.

    2014-11-01

    Increasing incidences of fire from land conversion and residue burning in tropics is the major concern in global warming. Spatial and temporal monitoring of trends of fire incidences is, therefore, significant in order to determine contribution of carbon emissions from slash and burn agriculture. In this study, we analyzed time-series Terra / Aqua MODIS satellite hotspot products from 2001 to 2013 to derive intra- and inter-annual trends in fire incidences in Nagaland state, located in the Indo-Burma biodiversity hotspot. Time-series regression was applied to MODIS fire products at variable spatial scales in GIS. Significance of change in fire frequency at each grid level was tested using t statistic. Spatial clustering of higher or lower fire incidences across study area was determined using Getis-OrdGi statistic. Maximum fire incidences were encountered in moist mixed deciduous forests (46%) followed by secondary moist bamboo brakes (30%). In most parts of the study area fire incidences peaked during March while in warmer parts (e.g. Mon district dominated by indigenous people) fire activity starts as early as during November and peaks in January. Regression trend analysis captured noticeable areas with statistically significant positive (e.g. Mokokchung, Wokha, Mon, Tuensang and Kiphire districts) and negative (e.g. Kohima and north-western part of Mokokchung district) inter-annual fire frequency trends based on area-based aggregation of fire occurrences at different grid sizes. Localization of spatial clusters of high fire incidences was observed in Mokokchung, Wokha, Mon,Tuensang and Kiphire districts.

  13. Trends in disability of instrumental activities of daily living among older Chinese adults, 1997-2006: population based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yajun; Welmer, Anna-Karin; Möller, Jette; Qiu, Chengxuan

    2017-08-28

    Data on trends for disability in instrumental activity of daily living (IADL) are sparse in older Chinese adults. To assess trends in prevalence and incidence of IADL disability among older Chinese adults and to explore contributing factors. Population based study. 15 provinces and municipalities in China. Participants (age ≥60) were from four waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey, conducted in 1997 (n=1533), 2000 (n=1581), 2004 (n=2028) and 2006 (n=2256), and from two cohorts constructed within the national survey: cohort 1997-2004 (n=712) and cohort 2000-2006 (n=823). IADL disability was defined as inability to perform one or more of the following: shopping, cooking, using transportation, financing and telephoning. Data were analysed with logistic regression and generalised estimating equation models. The prevalence of IADL disability significantly decreased from 1997 to 2006 in the total sample and in all of the subgroups by age, sex, living region and IADL items (all p trend 0.10). The recovery rate from IADL disab