Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R. Paap (Richard)

1997-01-01

textabstractMany macroeconomic time series are characterised by long periods of positive growth, expansion periods, and short periods of negative growth, recessions. A popular model to describe this phenomenon is the Markov trend, which is a stochastic segmented trend where the slope depends on the

Time trends in absolute and relative socioeconomic inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in northern Sweden.

Science.gov (United States)

Szilcz, Máté; Mosquera, Paola A; Sebastián, Miguel San; Gustafsson, Per E

2018-02-01

The aim was to investigate the time trends in educational, occupational, and income-related inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in 2006, 2010, and 2014 in northern Swedish women and men. This study was based on data obtained from the repeated cross-sectional Health on Equal Terms survey of 2006, 2010, and 2014. The analytical sample consisted of 20,667 (2006), 31,787 (2010), and 21,613 (2014) individuals, aged 16-84. Logistic regressions were used to model the probability of physical inactivity given a set of explanatory variables. Slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII) were used as summary measures of the social gradient in physical inactivity. The linear trend in inequalities and difference between gender and years were estimated by interaction analyses. The year 2010 displayed the highest physical inactivity inequalities for all socioeconomic position indicators, but educational and occupational inequalities decreased in 2014. However, significant positive linear trends were found in absolute and relative income inequalities. Moreover, women had significantly higher RII of education in physical inactivity in 2014 and significantly higher SII and RII of income in physical inactivity in 2010, than did men in the same years. The recent reduction in educational and occupational inequalities following the high inequalities around the time of the great recession in 2010 suggests that the current policies might be fairly effective. However, to eventually alleviate inequities in physical inactivity, the focus of the researchers and policymakers should be directed toward the widening trends of income inequalities in physical inactivity.

Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

Science.gov (United States)

Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

2017-01-01

We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; ponline trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; ponline trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.

Time trends in biological fertility in Western Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Joffe, Michael; Holmes, Jane; Jensen, Tina Kold

2013-01-01

analyses demonstrated that this rise was visible as a male cohort effect for both TTP and contraceptive failure. On the other hand, the female birth cohort effect showed a slight fall in the first half of the study period for both TTP and contraceptive failure. As a period effect, fertility remained...... of which are calculated to be small. The declining female fertility accords with a falling dizygotic twinning rate during the same period.......We investigated trends in biological fertility in a comprehensive analysis of 5 major European data sets with data on time to pregnancy (TTP) and proportion of contraceptive failures. In particular, we distinguished a period effect from a birth cohort effect (lifelong tendency) in both sexes...

Trend time-series modeling and forecasting with neural networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Min; Zhang, G Peter

2008-05-01

Despite its great importance, there has been no general consensus on how to model the trends in time-series data. Compared to traditional approaches, neural networks (NNs) have shown some promise in time-series forecasting. This paper investigates how to best model trend time series using NNs. Four different strategies (raw data, raw data with time index, detrending, and differencing) are used to model various trend patterns (linear, nonlinear, deterministic, stochastic, and breaking trend). We find that with NNs differencing often gives meritorious results regardless of the underlying data generating processes (DGPs). This finding is also confirmed by the real gross national product (GNP) series.

Stratospheric Temperature Trends Observed by TIMED/SABER

Science.gov (United States)

Xian, T.; Tan, R.

2017-12-01

Trends in the stratospheric temperature are studied based on the temperature profile observation from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). The spatially trends are evaluated in different time scales ranging from decadal to monthly resolved. The results indicate a signature of BDC acceleration. There are strong warming trends (up to 9 K/decade) in the middle to upper stratosphere in the high latitude spring, summer, and autumn seasons, accompanied by strong cooling trends in the lower stratosphere. Besides, strong warming trends occurs through the whole stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere, which confirms Antarctic ozone layer healing since 2000. In addition, the results demonstrate a significant warming trends in the middle of tropical stratosphere, which becomes strongest during June-July-August.

Shinguards effective in preventing lower leg injuries in football: Population-based trend analyses over 25 years.

Science.gov (United States)

Vriend, Ingrid; Valkenberg, Huib; Schoots, Wim; Goudswaard, Gert Jan; van der Meulen, Wout J; Backx, Frank J G

2015-09-01

The majority of football injuries are caused by trauma to the lower extremities. Shinguards are considered an important measure in preventing lower leg impact abrasions, contusions and fractures. Given these benefits, Fédération Internationale de Football Association introduced the shinguard law in 1990, which made wearing shinguards during matches mandatory. This study evaluated the effect of the introduction of the shinguard law for amateur players in the Netherlands in the 1999/2000-football season on the incidence of lower leg injuries. Time trend analyses on injury data covering 25 years of continuous registration (1986-2010). Data were retrieved from a system that records all emergency department treatments in a random, representative sample of Dutch hospitals. All injuries sustained in football by patients aged 6-65 years were included, except for injuries of the Achilles tendon and Weber fractures. Time trends were analysed with multiple regression analyses; a model was fitted consisting of multiple straight lines, each representing a 5-year period. Patients were predominantly males (92%) and treated for fractures (48%) or abrasions/contusions (52%) to the lower leg. The incidence of lower leg football injuries decreased significantly following the introduction of the shinguard law (1996-2000: -20%; 2001-2005: -25%), whereas the incidence of all other football injuries did not. This effect was more prominent at weekends/match days. No gender differences were found. The results significantly show a preventive effect of the shinguard law underlining the relevance of rule changes as a preventive measure and wearing shinguards during both matches and training sessions. Copyright © 2014 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial analyses of mono, di and trinucleotide trends in plant genes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Porceddu

Full Text Available Genomic DNA sequences display compositional heterogeneity on many scales. In this paper we analyzed tendencies and anomalies in the occurence of mono, di and trinucleotides in structural regions of plant genes. Representation of these trends as a function of position along genic sequences highlighted compositional features peculiar of either monocots or eudicots that were remarkably uniform within these two evolutionary clades. The most evident of these features appeared in the form of gradient of base content along the direction of transcription. The robustness of such a representation was validated in sequences sub-datasets generated considering structural and compositional features such as total length of cds, overall GC content and genic orientation in the genome. Piecewise regression analyses indicated that the gradients could be conveniently approximated to a two segmented model where a first region featuring a steep slope is followed by a second segment fitting a milder variation. In general, monocots species showed steeper segments than eudicots. The guanine gradient was the most distinctive feature between the two evolutionary clades, being moderately increasing in eudicots and firmly decreasing in monocots. Single gene investigation revealed that a high proportion of genes show compositional trends compatible with a segmented model suggesting that these features are essential attributes of gene organization. Dinucleotide and trinucleotide biases were referred to expectation based on a random union of the component elements. The average bias at dinucleotide level identified a significant undererpresentation of some dinucleotide and the overrepresention of others. The bias at trinucleotide level was on average low. Finally, the analysis of bryophyte coding sequences showed mononucleotide, dinucleotide and trinucleotide compositional trends resembling those of higher plants. This finding suggested that the emergenge of compositional bias

Time trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index in Danish adults with and without COPD

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Henrik; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Molsted, Stig

2016-01-01

Background: Promotion of a healthy lifestyle and non-pharmacological interventions in the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has received great attention in recent decades. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in leisure time physical activity (PA), smoking......, alcohol consumption and body mass index (BMI) from 2000 to 2010 in Danish individuals with and without COPD. Methods: Analyses were based on data provided by The Danish Health and Morbidity's three cross-sectional surveys from 2000, 2005 and 2010. Data compromised level of leisure time PA, smoking......, alcohol consumption, BMI and sociodemographic characteristics. Participants aged 25 years or older with and without COPD were included in the analyses. Results: In multiple logistic regression analyses, odds ratio (OR) of being physically active in the leisure time in 2010 compared to 2000 was 1.70 (95...

Wall thinning trend analyses for secondary side piping of Korean NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hwang, K.M.; Jin, T.E.; Lee, S.H.; Jeon, S.C.

2003-01-01

Since the mid-1990s, nuclear power plants in Korea have experienced wall thinning, leaks, and ruptures of secondary side piping caused by flow-accelerated corrosion (FAC). The pipe failures have increased as operating time progresses. In order to prevent the FAC-induced pipe failures and to develop an effective FAC management strategy, KEPRI and KOPEC have conducted a study for developing systematic FAC management technology for secondary side piping of all Korean nuclear power plants. As a part of the study, FAC analyses were performed using the CHECWORKS code. The analysis results were used to select components for inspection and to determine inspection intervals on each nuclear power plant. This paper describes the introduction of the FAC analysis method and the wall thinning trend analysis results by reactor type, system, and water treatment amine. This paper also represents the site application feasibility for secondary side piping management. The site application feasibility of the analysis results was proven by comparisons of predicted and measured wear rates. (author)

A Simple, Reliable Precision Time Analyser

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joshi, B. V.; Nargundkar, V. R.; Subbarao, K.; Kamath, M. S.; Eligar, S. K. [Atomic Energy Establishment Trombay, Bombay (India)

1966-06-15

A 30-channel time analyser is described. The time analyser was designed and built for pulsed neutron research but can be applied to other uses. Most of the logic is performed by means of ferrite memory core and transistor switching circuits. This leads to great versatility, low power consumption, extreme reliability and low cost. The analyser described provides channel Widths from 10 {mu}s to 10 ms; arbitrarily wider channels are easily obtainable. It can handle counting rates up to 2000 counts/min in each channel with less than 1% dead time loss. There is a provision for an initial delay equal to 100 channel widths. An input pulse de-randomizer unit using tunnel diodes ensures exactly equal channel widths. A brief description of the principles involved in core switching circuitry is given. The core-transistor transfer loop is compared with the usual core-diode loops and is shown to be more versatile and better adapted to the making of a time analyser. The circuits derived from the basic loop are described. These include the scale of ten, the frequency dividers and the delay generator. The current drivers developed for driving the cores are described. The crystal-controlled clock which controls the width of the time channels and synchronizes the operation of the various circuits is described. The detector pulse derandomizer unit using tunnel diodes is described. The scheme of the time analyser is then described showing how the various circuits can be integrated together to form a versatile time analyser. (author)

Ecological stages of the Venice Lagoon analysed using landing time series data

Science.gov (United States)

Libralato, Simone; Pranovi, Fabio; Raicevich, Saša; Da Ponte, Filippo; Giovanardi, Otello; Pastres, Roberto; Torricelli, Patrizia; Mainardi, Danilo

2004-11-01

The time series of landings in the Venice Lagoon from 1945 to 2001 were analysed with the aim of explaining the ecosystem changes occurred. The comparative analysis of the total landings and mean Trophic Level (mTL) time series allowed to identify four different stages in the lagoon ecosystem. The first period, from 1945 to 1973, was characterised by increasing trends in the landings and their mTL. The second one, from 1974 to 1989, showed a decrease in the landings but still an increase in the mTL. The third period, from 1990 to 1998, had again a positive trend in the landings, but the mTL showed a sharp decline. After 1998, a slight decreasing trend in both mTL and landings was observed: the analyses of the artisanal fishery landings only date back to 1995 this effect. The presence of four distinct periods was also confirmed by the analysis of the trends of other indices estimated using landings data: the Fishing in Balance index (FiB), the Trophic Efficiency (TE) and the Pelagic on Demersal landings ratio (P/D). In the first period, the increasing fishing pressure, along with no evidence of ecosystem crisis, suggested that an increased nutrient discharge was supporting it; analogously, the bottom-up effects had driven the dynamics of the ecosystem also in the second period, when the decrease in nutrient loads caused a shift of the primary producers from planktonic to macrobenthic. The spreading of the Manila clam, a non-native species, and the development of its massive mechanical exploitation have been the main forces driving the ecosystem during the third period, for which, however, no signs of crises were detected. The fourth period showed evidence of the "fishing down the food web" effect. Possible causes of such an effect were investigated and allowed us to conclude that not overfishing, but the effects of mechanical harvesting of the Manila clam had caused relevant impacts on habitat and benthic communities, concluding that the present level of

Trend Over Time for Cholecystectomy following the Introduction of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2018-03-05

Mar 5, 2018 ... Trend Over Time for Cholecystectomy following the Introduction of. Laparoscopy in a Nigerian Tertiary ... How to cite this article: Adisa AO, Lawal OO, Adejuyigbe O. Trend over time for cholecystectomy following .... The challenges with record keeping in the era of open cholecystectomy in our center made it ...

Time Trends in School Well-Being Among Adolescents in Oslo: Can Trends be Explained by Social Relationships?

OpenAIRE

Wilhelmsen, Tiril

2017-01-01

Even though well-being in the domain of school is important for mental health, time trend research of this topic is limited. In particular, there is a lack of research investigating differences between ethnic minority and majority students, and there is a lack of literature empirically exploring possible explanations for the time trends in school well-being. The aims of this study were to investigate time trends in school well-being among adolescents in Oslo, explore moderations by gender and...

A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

2016-09-01

Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

2010-01-01

Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...... are rather modest when individual exposures are assessed. Despite that, some exposures have been reported to be associated to early (e.g., polybrominated biphenyls) or delayed (e.g., lead) puberty. Here we shortly review the available data on recent trends in timing of puberty and the possible role...

Trend Estimation and Regression Analysis in Climatological Time Series: An Application of Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.

Science.gov (United States)

Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.

1995-05-01

The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of

A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

2016-01-01

Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

On the Use of Running Trends as Summary Statistics for Univariate Time Series and Time Series Association

OpenAIRE

Trottini, Mario; Vigo, Isabel; Belda, Santiago

2015-01-01

Given a time series, running trends analysis (RTA) involves evaluating least squares trends over overlapping time windows of L consecutive time points, with overlap by all but one observation. This produces a new series called the “running trends series,” which is used as summary statistics of the original series for further analysis. In recent years, RTA has been widely used in climate applied research as summary statistics for time series and time series association. There is no doubt that ...

Real-time trend monitoring of gas compressor stations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Van Hardeveld, T. (Nova, an Alberta Corp., AB (Canada))

1991-02-01

The authors' company has developed a machinery health monitoring system (MHealth) for short-term and long-term historical trending and analysis of data from its 40 gas compressor stations. The author discusses the benefits of real-time trending in troubleshooting operations, in preventative maintenance scheduling and cites specific applications in the startup operations of several new gas compressor/centrifugal compressor units.

Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

2010-01-01

Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...

Time-trend of melanoma screening practice by primary care physicians: a meta-regression analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Valachis, Antonis; Mauri, Davide; Karampoiki, Vassiliki; Polyzos, Nikolaos P; Cortinovis, Ivan; Koukourakis, Georgios; Zacharias, Georgios; Xilomenos, Apostolos; Tsappi, Maria; Casazza, Giovanni

2009-01-01

To assess whether the proportion of primary care physicians implementing full body skin examination (FBSE) to screen for melanoma changed over time. Meta-regression analyses of available data. MEDLINE, ISI, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Fifteen studies surveying 10,336 physicians were included in the analyses. Overall, 15%-82% of them reported to perform FBSE to screen for melanoma. The proportion of physicians using FBSE screening tended to decrease by 1.72% per year (P =0.086). Corresponding annual changes in European, North American, and Australian settings were -0.68% (P =0.494), -2.02% (P =0.044), and +2.59% (P =0.010), respectively. Changes were not influenced by national guide-lines. Considering the increasing incidence of melanoma and other skin malignancies, as well as their relative potential consequences, the FBSE implementation time-trend we retrieved should be considered a worrisome phenomenon.

Trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, body mass index and alcohol consumption in Danish adults with and without diabetes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Molsted, Stig; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Snorgaard, Ole

2014-01-01

AIMS: In recent decades there has been an increased focus on non-pharmacological treatment of diabetes. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in leisure time physical activity (PA), smoking, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol consumption reported in 2000, 2005 and 2010 by Danish subjects......-sectional analyses from 2000, 2005 and 2010. RESULTS: In participants with diabetes, leisure time PA levels increased from 2000 to 2010: The percentage of those that were physically active increased from 53.5% to 78.2% (p... in participants with diabetes compared to participants without diabetes throughout the study. CONCLUSIONS: The percentage of physically active Danish participants older than 45 years with diabetes increased from 2000 to 2010, and the most beneficial trends in life style were observed among the women. These trends...

HESS Opinions "More efforts and scientific rigour are needed to attribute trends in flood time series"

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Hundecha

2012-05-01

Full Text Available The question whether the magnitude and frequency of floods have changed due to climate change or other drivers of change is of high interest. The number of flood trend studies is rapidly rising. When changes are detected, many studies link the identified change to the underlying causes, i.e. they attribute the changes in flood behaviour to certain drivers of change. We propose a hypothesis testing framework for trend attribution which consists of essential ingredients for a sound attribution: evidence of consistency, evidence of inconsistency, and provision of confidence statement. Further, we evaluate the current state-of-the-art of flood trend attribution. We assess how selected recent studies approach the attribution problem, and to which extent their attribution statements seem defendable. In our opinion, the current state of flood trend attribution is poor. Attribution statements are mostly based on qualitative reasoning or even speculation. Typically, the focus of flood trend studies is the detection of change, i.e. the statistical analysis of time series, and attribution is regarded as an appendix: (1 flood time series are analysed by means of trend tests, (2 if a significant change is detected, a hypothesis on the cause of change is given, and (3 explanations or published studies are sought which support the hypothesis. We believe that we need a change in perspective and more scientific rigour: detection should be seen as an integral part of the more challenging attribution problem, and detection and attribution should be placed in a sound hypothesis testing framework.

Time trends in births and cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Horner-Johnson, Willi; Biel, Frances M; Darney, Blair G; Caughey, Aaron B

2017-07-01

Although it is likely that childbearing among women with disabilities is increasing, no empirical data have been published on changes over time in the numbers of women with disabilities giving birth. Further, while it is known that women with disabilities are at increased risk of cesarean delivery, temporal trends in cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities have not been examined. To assess time trends in births by any mode and in primary cesarean deliveries among women with physical, sensory, or intellectual/developmental disabilities. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked vital records and hospital discharge data from all deliveries in California, 2000-2010 (n = 4,605,061). We identified women with potential disabilities using ICD-9 codes. We used descriptive statistics and visualizations to examine time patterns. Logistic regression analyses assessed the association between disability and primary cesarean delivery, stratified by year. Among all women giving birth, the proportion with a disability increased from 0.27% in 2000 to 0.80% in 2010. Women with disabilities had significantly elevated odds of primary cesarean delivery in each year, but the magnitude of the odds ratio decreased over time from 2.60 (95% CI = 2.25 = 2.99) in 2000 to 1.66 (95% CI = 1.51-1.81) in 2010. Adequate clinician training is needed to address the perinatal care needs of the increasing numbers of women with disabilities giving birth. Continued efforts to understand cesarean delivery patterns and reasons for cesarean deliveries may help guide further reductions in proportions of cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities relative to women without disabilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Three measures of longevity: time trends and record values

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Canudas-Romo, V

2010-01-01

at birth increased from a level of 44 years in Sweden in 1840 to 82 years in Japan in 2005. The record median age at death shows increasing patterns similar to those observed in life expectancy at birth. However, the record modal age at death changes very little until the second half of the twentieth......This article examines the trend over time in the measures of “typical” longevity experienced by members of a population: life expectancy at birth, and the median and modal ages at death. The article also analyzes trends in record values observed for all three measures. The record life expectancy...... time from a dominance of child mortality reductions to a dominance of adult mortality reductions, which became evident by studying trends in the record modal age at death....

Methodological issues in analyzing time trends in biologic fertility: protection bias

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Key, Jane; Best, Nicky; Joffe, Michael

2009-01-01

One method of assessing biologic fertility is to measure time to pregnancy (TTP). Accidental pregnancies do not generate a valid TTP value and lead to nonrandom missing data if couples experiencing accidental pregnancies are more fertile than the general population. If factors affecting the rate...... of fertility trends in Europe over the past 50 years. Couples experiencing accidental pregnancies tended to be more fertile than the general population. However, trends in accidental pregnancy rates were inconsistent across countries and were insufficient to produce substantial bias in fertility trends...... of accidental pregnancies, such as availability of effective contraception and induced abortion, vary over time, then the result may be protection bias in the estimates of fertility time trends. Six European data sets were analyzed to investigate whether evidence of protection bias exists in TTP studies...

Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jia Chaolong

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1 is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

Trend and pattern analyses of operational data from nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amesz, J.

1990-01-01

One step towards maximizing the benefits gained from plant operating experience is the establishment of a rigorous scheme of classification and storage of operational data related to equipment failures and/or human errors. The analysis of data thus collected can fall into one of the following two categories: in-depth analysis of individual incidents which are considered to be of major significance from the safety point of view; and trend and pattern analyses of the stored data with the aim of identifying situations that warrant further studies or that require particular attention. In order to perform the second type of analyses, various approaches/systems are being used by organizations with interests in the nuclear power domain. Similar methodologies may be used in general industrial safety as well. For the purpose of facilitating a comparison between the different methods, the OECD/NEA Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI) decided to organize a specialist meeting jointly with the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) for a systematic and comprehensive review of the matter

Econophysics — complex correlations and trend switchings in financial time series

Science.gov (United States)

Preis, T.

2011-03-01

This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.

Time-trends in gastroprotection with NSAIDs

OpenAIRE

Valkhoff , Vera E.; Van Soest , Eva Marianne; Sturkenboom , Miriam C; Kuipers , Ernst J

2010-01-01

Abstract Background: Preventive strategies are advocated in patients at risk of upper gastrointestinal (UGI) complications associated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Aim: We examined time trends in preventive strategies. Methods: In a study population comprising of 50,126 NSAID users ? 50 yrs from the Integrated Primary Care Information database, we considered two preventive strategies: co-prescription of gastroprotective agents and prescription of a cyc...

Seasonal adjustment methods and real time trend-cycle estimation

CERN Document Server

Bee Dagum, Estela

2016-01-01

This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportat...

Agenda trending: reciprocity and the predictive capacity of social networking sites in intermedia agenda setting across topics over time

OpenAIRE

Groshek, Jacob; Groshek, Megan Clough

2013-01-01

In the contemporary converged media environment, agenda setting is being transformed by the dramatic growth of audiences that are simultaneously media users and producers. The study reported here addresses related gaps in the literature by first comparing the topical agendas of two leading traditional media outlets (New York Times and CNN) with the most frequently shared stories and trending topics on two widely popular Social Networking Sites (Facebook and Twitter). Time-series analyses of t...

Offshore Blowouts, Causes and Trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holand, P

1996-02-01

The main objective of this doctoral thesis was to establish an improved design basis for offshore installations with respect to blowout risk analyses. The following sub objectives are defined: (1) Establish an offshore blowout database suitable for risk analyses, (2) Compare the blowout risk related to loss of lives with the total offshore risk and risk in other industries, (3) Analyse blowouts with respect to parameters that are important to describe and quantify blowout risk that has been experienced to be able to answer several questions such as under what operations have blowouts occurred, direct causes, frequency of occurrence etc., (4) Analyse blowouts with respect to trends. The research strategy applied includes elements from both survey strategy and case study strategy. The data are systematized in the form of a new database developed from the MARINTEK database. Most blowouts in the analysed period occurred during drilling operations. Shallow gas blowouts were more frequent than deep blowouts and workover blowouts occurred more often than deep development drilling blowouts. Relatively few blowouts occurred during completion, wireline and normal production activities. No significant trend in blowout occurrences as a function of time could be observed, except for completion blowouts that showed a significantly decreasing trend. But there were trends regarding some important parameters for risk analyses, e.g. the ignition probability has decreased and diverter systems have improved. Only 3.5% of the fatalities occurred because of blowouts. 106 refs., 51 figs., 55 tabs.

Trends in prevalence of leisure time physical activity and inactivity: results from Australian National Health Surveys 1989 to 2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Chau, Josephine; Chey, Tien; Burks-Young, Sarah; Engelen, Lina; Bauman, Adrian

2017-12-01

To examine trends in leisure time physical activity and inactivity in Australians aged 15 years or older from 1989 to 2011. We used data from six Australian National Health Surveys conducted from 1989/90 to 2011/12 in which physical activity was assessed using comparable questions. Analyses examined trends in the prevalence of sufficient physical activity (≥150 minutes/week moderate-to-vigorous physical activity) and of inactivity (benefits from sufficient physical activity. Maintenance of consistent physical activity questions in future National Health Surveys will facilitate long term tracking of physical activity levels in the Australian population. © 2017 The Authors.

Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

1999-02-01

The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

Science.gov (United States)

Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

2018-03-01

Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

Science.gov (United States)

Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

2018-05-15

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can

Time is on whose side? Time trends in the association between maternal social disadvantage and offspring fetal growth. A study of 1,409,339 births in Denmark 1981-2004

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortensen, Laust H; Diderichsen, Finn; Davey-Smith, George

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Fetal growth is highly socially patterned and is related to health across the life course, but how the social patterns of fetal growth change over time remains understudied. We examined the time trends in maternal social disadvantage in relation to fetal growth in the context of a univ......OBJECTIVE: Fetal growth is highly socially patterned and is related to health across the life course, but how the social patterns of fetal growth change over time remains understudied. We examined the time trends in maternal social disadvantage in relation to fetal growth in the context...... of a universal welfare state under changing macroeconomic conditions over a 24-year period. Design and settings: All births in Denmark 1981-2004. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The association between maternal social disadvantage in relation to birth weight for gestational age z-scores over time were analysed using...... linear regression. RESULTS: All measures of social disadvantage were associated with decreased fetal growth (p

Measuring trends in poverty over time - some robust results for Ireland 1980-87

OpenAIRE

Nolan, B; Callan, T

1989-01-01

The trend in poverty in Ireland between 1980 and 1987 is analysed, using the 1980 Household Budget Survey and the ESRI 1987 Survey of Income, Distribution, Poverty and Usage of State Services. In addition to the number falling below poverty thresholds, more sophisticated aggregate poverty measures are derived, taking into account the extent to which the poor fall below the poverty line and the distribution of income among the poor. Results for the trend in poverty which are robust over a rang...

Time trend of smoking scenes in Iranian movies during the past three decades (1982-2011): a historical analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Heydari, Gholamreza; Ebn Ahmady, Arezoo; Lando, Harry A; Chamyani, Fahimeh; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza; Shadmehr, Mohammad B; Fadaizadeh, Lida; Chaibakhsh, Samira

2016-09-01

Evidence from the USA and elsewhere has linked smoking depictions in movies with youth smoking initiation. Prior research has not focused on depictions in films produced in the Middle East, however. We reviewed the 10 most commercially successful Iranian films released each year over three decades (1982-2011) to determine trends in depictions of tobacco use over time. Each movie was reviewed in its entirety, and depictions of smoking were recorded and classified as direct (characters holding or using tobacco products) and indirect (tobacco products appearing in the frame, but not being used). Time trends in average duration of direct, indirect and total smoking depictions were analysed using linear regression and Cohen's κ coefficient. The mean duration of tobacco depictions in the most commercially successful Iranian films fluctuated yearly over the 3 decades, but with an overall significant upward trend (pfilm industry to minimise this important source of influence on tobacco initiation in young people. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Interrupted time-series analysis: studying trends in neurosurgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Ricky H; Smieliauskas, Fabrice; Pan, I-Wen; Lam, Sandi K

2015-12-01

OBJECT Neurosurgery studies traditionally have evaluated the effects of interventions on health care outcomes by studying overall changes in measured outcomes over time. Yet, this type of linear analysis is limited due to lack of consideration of the trend's effects both pre- and postintervention and the potential for confounding influences. The aim of this study was to illustrate interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) as applied to an example in the neurosurgical literature and highlight ITSA's potential for future applications. METHODS The methods used in previous neurosurgical studies were analyzed and then compared with the methodology of ITSA. RESULTS The ITSA method was identified in the neurosurgical literature as an important technique for isolating the effect of an intervention (such as a policy change or a quality and safety initiative) on a health outcome independent of other factors driving trends in the outcome. The authors determined that ITSA allows for analysis of the intervention's immediate impact on outcome level and on subsequent trends and enables a more careful measure of the causal effects of interventions on health care outcomes. CONCLUSIONS ITSA represents a significant improvement over traditional observational study designs in quantifying the impact of an intervention. ITSA is a useful statistical procedure to understand, consider, and implement as the field of neurosurgery evolves in sophistication in big-data analytics, economics, and health services research.

Statistical analysis of strait time index and a simple model for trend and trend reversal

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Kan; Jayaprakash, C.

2003-06-01

We analyze the daily closing prices of the Strait Time Index (STI) as well as the individual stocks traded in Singapore's stock market from 1988 to 2001. We find that the Hurst exponent is approximately 0.6 for both the STI and individual stocks, while the normal correlation functions show the random walk exponent of 0.5. We also investigate the conditional average of the price change in an interval of length T given the price change in the previous interval. We find strong correlations for price changes larger than a threshold value proportional to T; this indicates that there is no uniform crossover to Gaussian behavior. A simple model based on short-time trend and trend reversal is constructed. We show that the model exhibits statistical properties and market swings similar to those of the real market.

Time trends in human fecundability in Sweden

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheike, Thomas H; Rylander, Lars; Carstensen, Lisbeth

2008-01-01

,000 primiparous women 20 years of age and older in the nationwide Swedish Medical Birth Registry from 1983 through 2002. This age restriction led to an exclusion of 10% of primiparous pregnancies. Subfertility (TTP > or =1 year) was analyzed as a function of maternal age, calendar time at initiation of attempt...... increased with age, except that for women in their late 1930s, an apparent decrease was observed, particularly among the early cohorts. CONCLUSION: We found decreasing subfertility over time. We speculate that these patterns might be related to a Sweden-specific decrease over time in sexually transmitted...... diseases, to changes in sexual behavior induced by socioeconomic conditions, or to broader biologic or educational trends....

Using exogenous variables in testing for monotonic trends in hydrologic time series

Science.gov (United States)

Alley, William M.

1988-01-01

One approach that has been used in performing a nonparametric test for monotonic trend in a hydrologic time series consists of a two-stage analysis. First, a regression equation is estimated for the variable being tested as a function of an exogenous variable. A nonparametric trend test such as the Kendall test is then performed on the residuals from the equation. By analogy to stagewise regression and through Monte Carlo experiments, it is demonstrated that this approach will tend to underestimate the magnitude of the trend and to result in some loss in power as a result of ignoring the interaction between the exogenous variable and time. An alternative approach, referred to as the adjusted variable Kendall test, is demonstrated to generally have increased statistical power and to provide more reliable estimates of the trend slope. In addition, the utility of including an exogenous variable in a trend test is examined under selected conditions.

A multi-criteria evaluation system for marine litter pollution based on statistical analyses of OSPAR beach litter monitoring time series.

Science.gov (United States)

Schulz, Marcus; Neumann, Daniel; Fleet, David M; Matthies, Michael

2013-12-01

During the last decades, marine pollution with anthropogenic litter has become a worldwide major environmental concern. Standardized monitoring of litter since 2001 on 78 beaches selected within the framework of the Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic (OSPAR) has been used to identify temporal trends of marine litter. Based on statistical analyses of this dataset a two-part multi-criteria evaluation system for beach litter pollution of the North-East Atlantic and the North Sea is proposed. Canonical correlation analyses, linear regression analyses, and non-parametric analyses of variance were used to identify different temporal trends. A classification of beaches was derived from cluster analyses and served to define different states of beach quality according to abundances of 17 input variables. The evaluation system is easily applicable and relies on the above-mentioned classification and on significant temporal trends implied by significant rank correlations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Data Used in Analyses of Trends, and Nutrient and Suspended-Sediment Loads for Streams in the Southeastern United States, 1973-2005

Science.gov (United States)

Staub, Erik L.; Peak, Kelly L.; Tighe, Kirsten C.; Sadorf, Eric M.; Harned, Douglas A.

2010-01-01

Water-quality data from selected surface-water monitoring sites in the Southeastern United States were assessed for trends in concentrations of nutrients, suspended sediment, and major constituents and for in-stream nutrient and suspended-sediment loads for the period 1973-2005. The area of interest includes river basins draining into the southern Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Tennessee River-drainage basins in Hydrologic Regions 03 (South Atlantic - Gulf) and 06 (Tennessee). This data assessment is related to studies of several major river basins as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program, which was designed to assess national water-quality trends during a common time period (1993-2004). Included in this report are data on which trend tests could be performed from 44 U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System (NWIS) sampling sites. The constituents examined include major ions, nutrients, and suspended sediment; the physical properties examined include pH, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, and streamflow. Also included are data that were tested for trends from an additional 290 sites from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Storage and Retrieval (STORET) database. The trend analyses of the STORET data were limited to total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations. Data from 48 U.S. Geological Survey NWIS sampling sites with sufficient water-quality and continuous streamflow data for estimating nutrient and sediment loads are included. The methods of data compilation and modification used prior to performing trend tests and load estimation are described. Results of the seasonal Kendall trend test and the Tobit trend test are given for the 334 monitoring sites, and in-stream load estimates are given for the 48 monitoring sites. Basin characteristics are provided, including regional landscape variables and agricultural nutrient sources (annual variations in cropping and fertilizer use

Trends in U.S. adult chronic disability rates over time.

Science.gov (United States)

Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kurtz, Stephen G; Rao, Sowmya R

2014-10-01

Trends in the patterns and prevalence of chronic disability among U.S. residents carry important implications for public health and public policies across multiple societal sectors. To examine trends in U.S. adult population rates of chronic disability from 1998 to 2011 using 7 different disability measures and examining the implications of trends in population age, race and ethnicity, and body mass index (BMI). We used National Health Interview Survey data on civilian, non-institutionalized U.S. residents ages ≥ 18 from selected years between 1998 and 2011. We used self-reported information on functional impairments, activity/participation limitations, and expected duration to create 7 chronic disability measures. We used direct standardization to account for changes in age, race/ethnicity, and BMI distributions over time. Multivariable logistic regression models identified associations of disability with sociodemographic characteristics. Without adjustment, population rates of all 7 disabilities increased significantly (p disability types continued to show increased rates over time (p disability. If these trends continue, the numbers and proportions of U.S. residents with various disabilities will continue rising in coming years. In particular, the prevalence of movement difficulties and work limitations will increase. Furthermore, disability will remain strongly associated with low levels of education, employment, and income. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

Science.gov (United States)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

2014-02-01

The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

Global Precipitation Analyses at Time Scales of Monthly to 3-Hourly

Science.gov (United States)

Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the Goodyear period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENRON variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 degree latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is described. Finally, a TRMM-based Based analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous OR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, Baehr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January Represent). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg. N -50 deg. S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.

Time trends in the natural dizygotic twinning rate.

Science.gov (United States)

Derom, Catherine; Gielen, Marij; Peeters, Hilde; Frijns, Jean-Pierre; Zeegers, Maurice P A

2011-08-01

The natural dizygotic (DZ) twinning rate has been proposed as a reliable and useful measure of human fecundity, if adjusted for maternal age at twin birth. The aim of this study was to analyze age-adjusted trends in natural DZ twinning rates over the past 40 years using data from the 'East Flanders Prospective Twin Survey (EFPTS)'. This study involved 4835 naturally conceived twin pregnancies between 1969 and 2009 from the population-based Belgian 'EFPTS'. Age-adjusted trends in the incidence of natural DZ twin pregnancies were calculated using a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. Both the natural DZ twinning rates and maternal age at twin birth increased in a linear fashion from 1969 to 2009. When age-adjusted, we found that the trend in the natural DZ twinning rate was stable during the whole time period. According to our population-based data and after age-adjustment, a stable natural DZ twinning rate could be observed over the last four decades. Under the assumption that the spontaneous DZ twinning rate is a sensor of fecundity, this indicates a stable 'high' fecundity for this population.

Extreme Drought-induced Trend Changes in MODIS EVI Time Series in Yunnan, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Kaicheng; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang

2014-01-01

Extreme climatic events triggered by global climate change are expected to increase significantly hence research into vegetation response is crucial to evaluate environmental risk. Yunnan province, locating in southwest China, experienced an extreme drought event (from autumn of 2009 to spring of 2010), with the lowest percentage rainfall anomaly and the longest non-rain days in the past 50 years. This study aimed to explore the characteristics and differences in the response to drought of four land cover types in Yunnan province, including forest, grassland, shrub, and cropland during the period 2001-2011. We used remote sensing data, MODIS-derived EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) to study the vegetation responses to this extreme drought event. The EVI time series were decomposed into trend, seasonal and remainder components using BFAST (Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend) which accounts for seasonality and enables the detection of trend changes within the time series. The preliminary results showed that: (1) BFAST proved to be capable of detecting drought-induced trend changes in EVI time series. (2) Changes in the trend component over time consisted of both gradual and abrupt changes. (3) Different spatial patterns were found for abrupt and gradual changes. (4) Cropland exhibited an abrupt change, due to its sensitivity to severe drought, while the forest seemed least affected by the extreme drought

Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

Science.gov (United States)

Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

2014-05-01

In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods that can analyze multidimensional time series. One important attribute of this method is that it is not dependent on any statistical assumption and does not need local stationarity in the time series. In this paper, it is shown how the FEM-clustering method can be used to locate change points in the trend of temperature time series from in situ observations. This method is applied to the temperature time series of North Carolina (NC) and the results represent region-specific climate variability despite higher frequency harmonics in climatic time series. Next, we investigated the relationship between the climatic indices with the clusters/trends detected based on this clustering method. It appears that the natural variability of climate change in NC during 1950-2009 can be explained mostly by AMO and solar activity.

Did Medicare Part D Affect National Trends in Health Outcomes or Hospitalizations? A Time-Series Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Briesacher, Becky A; Madden, Jeanne M; Zhang, Fang; Fouayzi, Hassan; Ross-Degnan, Dennis; Gurwitz, Jerry H; Soumerai, Stephen B

2015-06-16

Medicare Part D increased economic access to medications, but its effect on population-level health outcomes and use of other medical services remains unclear. To examine changes in health outcomes and medical services in the Medicare population after implementation of Part D. Population-level longitudinal time-series analysis with generalized linear models. Community. Nationally representative sample of Medicare beneficiaries (n = 56,293 [unweighted and unique]) from 2000 to 2010. Changes in self-reported health status, limitations in activities of daily living (ADLs) (ADLs and instrumental ADLs), emergency department visits and hospital admissions (prevalence, counts, and spending), and mortality. Medicare claims data were used for confirmatory analyses. Five years after Part D implementation, no clinically or statistically significant reductions in the prevalence of fair or poor health status or limitations in ADLs or instrumental ADLs, relative to historical trends, were detected. Compared with trends before Part D, no changes in emergency department visits, hospital admissions or days, inpatient costs, or mortality after Part D were seen. Confirmatory analyses were consistent. Only total population-level outcomes were studied. Self-reported measures may lack sensitivity. Five years after implementation, and contrary to previous reports, no evidence was found of Part D's effect on a range of population-level health indicators among Medicare enrollees. Further, there was no clear evidence of gains in medical care efficiencies.

Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

Science.gov (United States)

Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

2017-04-01

Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological

Assessing trends in fishery resources and lake-water aluminum from paleolimnological analyses of siliceous algae

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kingston, J.C.; Birks, H.J.B.; Uutala, A.J.; Cummings, B.F.; Smol, J.P.

1992-01-01

Lake water aluminum concentrations have a significant influence on the composition of microfossil assemblages of diatoms and chrysophytes deposited in lake sediments. With the paleolimnological approach of multilake datasets in the Adirondack region of New York, USA, the authors use canonical correspondence analysis to describe past trends in lake water Al. Four lakes, previously investigated regarding acidification and fishery trends, are used to demonstrate that paleolimnological assessment can also provide direction, timing, and magnitude of trends for both toxic metals and fish resources. Additionally, the authors use weighted average regression and calibration to obtain quantitative reconstructions of past lake water Al concentrations. Such reconstructions provide further insight into fishery resource damage and can be compared with modelling results. According to paleolimnological reconstructions, some of the naturally most acidic lakes in the Adirondack region had preindustrial lake water concentrations of inorganic monomeric Al near 4/micromol times L. Although these high concentrations are surprising from a geochemical point of view, they may partially explain the preindustrial absence of fish, as has been independently determined by paleolimnological analysis of phantom midges (Chaoborus). Fishery resource deterioration in acidified Adirondack lakes was coincident with major increases in lake water Al concentrations

Gender, Time and Inequality: Trends in Women's and Men's Paid Work, Unpaid Work and Free Time

Science.gov (United States)

Sayer, Liana C.

2005-01-01

This analysis uses nationally representative time diary data from 1965, 1975 and 1998 to examine trends and gender differences in time use. Women continue to do more household labor than men; however, men have substantially increased time in core household activities such as cooking, cleaning and daily child care. Nonetheless, a 30-minute-per-day…

Nationwide time trends and risk factors for in-hospital falls-related major injuries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jorgensen, T. S. H.; Hansen, A. H.; Sahlberg, M.

2015-01-01

BackgroundAccidental falls during hospitalisation have a range of complications and more information is needed to improve prevention. We investigated patterns of in-hospital fall-related major injuries in the period 2000-2012 and the association between chronic conditions and in-hospital fall......-related major injuries. MethodsUsing administrative databases, patients aged 65+ years with in-hospital falls causing fractures or head injuries with need for surgery or intensive observation were identified as cases and were individually matched with five controls. Joinpoint regression was used to examine time...... trends and conditional logistic regression was used to analyse odds ratio (OR) for in-hospital falls-related major injuries according to a range of comorbidities. ResultsFour thousand seven hundred and fifty-four cases were identified from 2000 to 2012 and the most common injury was femur fracture (61...

Dose trend analysis of the PWR nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cernilogar Radez, M.; Janzekovic, H.; Krizman, M.

2002-01-01

The analyses of occupational dose trends in Krsko NPP in the period from 1995 to 2001 are given in comparison to the worldwide data. The Central Dose Register of Workers in Nuclear Installations at the Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration enables the comprehensive dose trend analysis of the occupational doses in Krsko NPP. The time dose trend of the collective annual effective dose at the Krsko NPP shows somehow different trend than the trends of the ISOE data [1]. The performance indicators describing dose data distributions related to the radiation protection standards [2, 3] are discussed.(author)

Time trends of US hospitalization for esophageal disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Sonnenberg, Amnon

2014-09-01

The occurrence of reflux disease seems to be rising in the United States. The aim of the present study was to follow the time trends of hospitalization for gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and other esophageal disease during the past 4 decades. US hospital utilization data were available for individual years from 1970 to 2010 through the National Hospital Discharge Survey. Esophageal diagnoses were stratified by their ninth revision of the International Classification of Diseases codes. Annual hospitalizations were expressed as rates per 100,000 living US population. GERD was by far the most common esophageal disorder resulting in hospitalization. However, in only 5% of instances did GERD-related diagnoses constitute the primary cause of hospitalization. Between 1970 and 2010 the rates of GERD-related hospitalizations increased in an exponential manner almost 10-fold. This rise affected both sex and all age groups alike. A 3-fold rise was noted in hospitalizations for esophageal adenocarcinoma. Other esophageal diagnoses, such as achalasia, dyskinesia, or stricture were characterized by falling or stable trends. US hospitalization data show a continued exponential rise in the occurrence of GERD without any signs of leveling off. These trends are likely to represent ongoing changes in the underlying incidence and prevalence of the disease.

Online Marketing Trends

OpenAIRE

Horecká, Ivana

2015-01-01

This thesis deals with online marketing trends. Its main goal is to define the latest online marketing trends, create a website with the free online marketing trends, and analyse their effectiveness. The theoretical part brings a thorough description of the latest online marketing trends. Moreover, it provides an insight into the latest trends in the website development. The chosen online marketing trends defined in the theoretical part are subsequently applied on a newly created website. All...

Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

OpenAIRE

Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

2014-01-01

In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods ...

Canadian population trends in leisure-time physical activity levels, 1981-1998.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruce, Marny J; Katzmarzyk, Peter T

2002-12-01

Age, sex, geographic and temporal trends in leisure-time physical activity levels were examined using data from five national surveys conducted between 1981 and 1998. Physical activity energy expenditure (AEE) was higher among men compared to women, and in younger versus older adults. AEE increased from Eastern to Western Canada, with a significant temporal trend of increasing AEE. The prevalence of physical inactivity (expending importance of population-level physical activity surveillance and interventions.

Detecting cognizable trends of gene expression in a time series ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

This poses difficulties in conducting formal statistical tests of significance of ... The proposed algorithm captured known 'time-trends' in the simulated data with a high probability ... to draw valid inferences even when the sample size is small.

Temporal trend of carpal tunnel release surgery: a population-based time series analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naif Fnais

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Carpal tunnel release (CTR is among the most common hand surgeries, although little is known about its pattern. In this study, we aimed to investigate temporal trends, age and gender variation and current practice patterns in CTR surgeries. METHODS: We conducted a population-based time series analysis among over 13 million residents of Ontario, who underwent operative management for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS from April 1, 1992 to March 31, 2010 using administrative claims data. RESULTS: The primary analysis revealed a fairly stable procedure rate of approximately 10 patients per 10,000 population per year receiving CTRs without any significant, consistent temporal trend (p = 0.94. Secondary analyses revealed different trends in procedure rates according to age. The annual procedure rate among those age >75 years increased from 22 per 10,000 population at the beginning of the study period to over 26 patients per 10,000 population (p<0.01 by the end of the study period. CTR surgical procedures were approximately two-fold more common among females relative to males (64.9% vs. 35.1 respectively; p<0.01. Lastly, CTR procedures are increasingly being conducted in the outpatient setting while procedures in the inpatient setting have been declining steadily - the proportion of procedures performed in the outpatient setting increased from 13% to over 30% by 2010 (p<0.01. CONCLUSION: Overall, CTR surgical-procedures are conducted at a rate of approximately 10 patients per 10,000 population annually with significant variation with respect to age and gender. CTR surgical procedures in ambulatory-care facilities may soon outpace procedure rates in the in-hospital setting.

Radioactive contamination in Norwegian fish and seafood 1960-2013: time trends and geographical trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heldal, Hilde Elise; Svaeren, Ingrid; Liebig, Penny Lee [Institute of Marine Research, P. O. Box 1870 Nordnes, N-5817 Bergen (Norway); Brungot, Anne Lene; Gaefvert, Torbjoern; Rudjord, Anne Liv [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, P.O. Box 55, N-1332 Oesteraas (Norway); Gwynn, Justin [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, The Fram Centre, N-9296 Tromsoe (Norway)

2014-07-01

Barents Sea in 2012). However, time trends and geographical trends are clearly evident in the datasets. For example, the impact of fallout from the Chernobyl accident could be observed, particularly in samples collected in coastal areas and the Kattegat/Skagerrak and the North Sea. In recent decades there has been a slow decrease in the activity concentrations of most anthropogenic radionuclides in fish and seafood as a result of decreasing discharges from European reprocessing plants for spent nuclear fuel and the reduced impact of fallout from the Chernobyl accident. In the case of {sup 99}Tc however, activity concentrations in seawater and certain biota increased to peak values around 2000 as a result of increased discharges from Sellafield (UK) in the 1990's. In open sea areas, the activity concentrations of {sup 137}Cs in fish and seafood have been highest in the Skagerrak and the North Sea due to the proximity to the reprocessing plants at Sellafield and Cap la Hague (France) and outflowing Chernobyl-contaminated seawater from the Baltic Sea. Activity concentrations of {sup 137}Cs in fish and seafood collected in fjords in mid-Norway are up to an order of magnitude higher than in the open sea areas due to terrestrial run-off from Chernobyl fallout in Norway. (authors)

Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

2008-01-01

or girls. A majority of the panelists agreed that data are sufficient to suggest a trend toward an earlier breast development onset and menarche in girls but not for other female pubertal markers. A minority of panelists concluded that the current data on girls' puberty timing for any marker...... are insufficient. Almost all panelists concluded, on the basis of few studies and reliability issues of some male puberty markers, that current data for boys are insufficient to evaluate secular trends in male pubertal development. The panel agreed that altered puberty timing should be considered an adverse effect......Whether children, especially girls, are entering and progressing through puberty earlier today than in the mid-1900s has been debated. Secular trend analysis, based on available data, is limited by data comparability among studies in different populations, in different periods of time, and using...

Time trends in axilla management among early breast cancer patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gondos, Adam; Jansen, Lina; Heil, Joerg

2016-01-01

Background We examined time trends in axilla management among patients with early breast cancer in European clinical settings. Material and methods EUROCANPlatform partners, including population-based and cancer center-specific registries, provided routinely available clinical cancer registry data...... for a comparative study of axillary management trends among patients with first non-metastatic breast cancer who were not selected for neoadjuvant therapy during the last decade. We used an additional short questionnaire to compare clinical care patterns in 2014. Results Patients treated in cancer centers were...... younger than population-based registry populations. Tumor size and lymph node status distributions varied little between settings or over time. In 2003, sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) use varied between 26% and 81% for pT1 tumors, and between 2% and 68% for pT2 tumors. By 2010, SLNB use increased to 79...

Educational inequalities in obesity among Mexican women: time-trends from 1988 to 2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Perez Ferrer, Carolina; McMunn, Anne; Rivera Dommarco, Juan A; Brunner, Eric J

2014-01-01

Obesity is one of the leading causes of global morbidity and mortality. Trends in educational inequalities in obesity prevalence among Mexican women have not been analysed systematically to date. Data came from four nationally representative surveys (1988, 1999, 2006, and 2012) of a total of 51 220 non-pregnant women aged 20 to 49. Weight and height were measured during home visits. Education level (higher education, high school, secondary, primary or less) was self-reported. We analysed trends in relative and absolute educational inequalities in obesity prevalence separately for urban and rural areas. Nationally, age-standardised obesity prevalence increased from 9.3% to 33.7% over 25 years to 2012. Obesity prevalence was inversely associated with education level in urban areas at all survey waves. In rural areas, obesity prevalence increased markedly but there was no gradient with education level at any survey. The relative index of inequality in urban areas declined over the period (2.87 (95%CI: 1.94, 4.25) in 1988, 1.55 (95%CI: 1.33, 1.80) in 2012, trend pwomen with higher education in the period 1988-2012 compared to 3.23 fold (95%CI: 2.88, 3.63) for urban women with primary or no education. The slope index of inequality increased in urban areas from 1988 to 2012. Over 0.5 M cases would be avoided if the obesity prevalence of women with primary or less education was the same as for women with higher education. The expected inverse association between education and obesity was observed in urban areas of Mexico. The declining trend in relative educational inequalities in obesity was due to a greater increase in obesity prevalence among higher educated women. In rural areas there was no social gradient in the association between education level and obesity across the four surveys.

Trend analysis in the nuclear maintenance industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruemeli, W.A.

1986-01-01

The maintenance of nuclear facilities is a demanding, ongoing activity which requires the same level of quality as new construction. Heretofore, many owners and contractors have relied on ''gut feel'' to determine whether maintenance quality was improving or not. However, trend analysis now is becoming a key factor in monitoring plant activities to ensure quality. Literature abounds with descriptions of computerized systems for collecting and sorting data. Even the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has concurred, with its endorsement of trend analysis of construction indicators in NUREG 1055 (Ford Amendment Study). Stearns Catalytic has developed a unique system of tend analyses for nuclear plant activities. Aside from its intended purpose of determining the quality trends in maintenance activities, the program also supplies substantial quantitative data for control and management of the quality activities. Trend analysis is a time series analysis of a set of observations arranged in chronological order. The important aspect is the time basis, specifically the analysis of quality indicators over successive periods of time. Many program elements, including surveillances, nonconformances, inspections, and audits, are designed to look at quality indications

Trend assessment: applications for hydrology and climate research

Science.gov (United States)

Kallache, M.; Rust, H. W.; Kropp, J.

2005-02-01

The assessment of trends in climatology and hydrology still is a matter of debate. Capturing typical properties of time series, like trends, is highly relevant for the discussion of potential impacts of global warming or flood occurrences. It provides indicators for the separation of anthropogenic signals and natural forcing factors by distinguishing between deterministic trends and stochastic variability. In this contribution river run-off data from gauges in Southern Germany are analysed regarding their trend behaviour by combining a deterministic trend component and a stochastic model part in a semi-parametric approach. In this way the trade-off between trend and autocorrelation structure can be considered explicitly. A test for a significant trend is introduced via three steps: First, a stochastic fractional ARIMA model, which is able to reproduce short-term as well as long-term correlations, is fitted to the empirical data. In a second step, wavelet analysis is used to separate the variability of small and large time-scales assuming that the trend component is part of the latter. Finally, a comparison of the overall variability to that restricted to small scales results in a test for a trend. The extraction of the large-scale behaviour by wavelet analysis provides a clue concerning the shape of the trend.

An Analysis of Wine Consumption Trends and Food-Related Expenditures in Japan

OpenAIRE

Omura, Makiko; Sakurai, Yuka; Ebihara, Kensuke

2013-01-01

This paper attempts to understand the mechanism of an upward trend in wine consumption in Japan by analysing its trend and possible correlations with food-related consumptions. Through the panel and time-series analyses of wine consumption and food-item expenditures, and of wine consumption and food-service industry sales, we investigate whether wine consumption is correlated with food westernization in Japan and whether wine is gaining its steady place in daily life of Japanese. Although not...

Incidence of infective endocarditis in England, 2000-13: a secular trend, interrupted time-series analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Dayer, Mark J; Jones, Simon; Prendergast, Bernard; Baddour, Larry M; Lockhart, Peter B; Thornhill, Martin H

2015-03-28

Antibiotic prophylaxis given before invasive dental procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis has historically been the focus of infective endocarditis prevention. Recent changes in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines in the USA and Europe have substantially reduced the number of patients for whom antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended. In the UK, guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) recommended complete cessation of antibiotic prophylaxis for prevention of infective endocarditis in March, 2008. We aimed to investigate changes in the prescribing of antibiotic prophylaxis and the incidence of infective endocarditis since the introduction of these guidelines. We did a retrospective secular trend study, analysed as an interrupted time series, to investigate the effect of antibiotic prophylaxis versus no prophylaxis on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England. We analysed data for the prescription of antibiotic prophylaxis from Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2013, and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of infective endocarditis from Jan 1, 2000, to March 31, 2013. We compared the incidence of infective endocarditis before and after the introduction of the NICE guidelines using segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time series. Prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis for the prevention of infective endocarditis fell substantially after introduction of the NICE guidance (mean 10,900 prescriptions per month [Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2008] vs 2236 prescriptions per month [April 1, 2008, to March 31, 2013], pinfective endocarditis increased significantly above the projected historical trend, by 0·11 cases per 10 million people per month (95% CI 0·05-0·16, pinfective endocarditis was significant for both individuals at high risk of infective endocarditis and those at lower risk. Although our data do not establish a causal association, prescriptions

Time trends in heavy drinking among middle-aged and older adults in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjørk, Christina; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Vinther-Larsen, Mathilde

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: Studies have indicated an increasing proportion of heavy drinking among middle-aged and older Danes. Trends in consumption are often extremely sensitive to influence from various components of the time trends but only few have explored the age, period and cohort-related influences...... that the proportion of heavy drinking women increases in younger birth cohorts. This trend is not observed for men as their drinking pattern mainly increase slightly by calendar year. CONCLUSIONS: Our Danish observations for older aged individuals correspond to the social and cultural changes in the 1960s and 1970s...

Educational Inequalities in Obesity among Mexican Women: Time-Trends from 1988 to 2012

Science.gov (United States)

Perez Ferrer, Carolina; McMunn, Anne; Rivera Dommarco, Juan A.; Brunner, Eric J.

2014-01-01

Background Obesity is one of the leading causes of global morbidity and mortality. Trends in educational inequalities in obesity prevalence among Mexican women have not been analysed systematically to date. Methods Data came from four nationally representative surveys (1988, 1999, 2006, and 2012) of a total of 51 220 non-pregnant women aged 20 to 49. Weight and height were measured during home visits. Education level (higher education, high school, secondary, primary or less) was self-reported. We analysed trends in relative and absolute educational inequalities in obesity prevalence separately for urban and rural areas. Results Nationally, age-standardised obesity prevalence increased from 9.3% to 33.7% over 25 years to 2012. Obesity prevalence was inversely associated with education level in urban areas at all survey waves. In rural areas, obesity prevalence increased markedly but there was no gradient with education level at any survey. The relative index of inequality in urban areas declined over the period (2.87 (95%CI: 1.94, 4.25) in 1988, 1.55 (95%CI: 1.33, 1.80) in 2012, trend pObesity increased 5.92 fold (95%CI: 4.03, 8.70) among urban women with higher education in the period 1988–2012 compared to 3.23 fold (95%CI: 2.88, 3.63) for urban women with primary or no education. The slope index of inequality increased in urban areas from 1988 to 2012. Over 0.5 M cases would be avoided if the obesity prevalence of women with primary or less education was the same as for women with higher education. Conclusions The expected inverse association between education and obesity was observed in urban areas of Mexico. The declining trend in relative educational inequalities in obesity was due to a greater increase in obesity prevalence among higher educated women. In rural areas there was no social gradient in the association between education level and obesity across the four surveys. PMID:24599098

United States Forest Disturbance Trends Observed Using Landsat Time Series

Science.gov (United States)

Masek, Jeffrey G.; Goward, Samuel N.; Kennedy, Robert E.; Cohen, Warren B.; Moisen, Gretchen G.; Schleeweis, Karen; Huang, Chengquan

2013-01-01

Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing U.S. land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest disturbance across the conterminous United States for 1985-2005. The geographic sample design used a probability-based scheme to encompass major forest types and maximize geographic dispersion. For each sample location disturbance was identified in the Landsat series using the Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) algorithm. The NAFD analysis indicates that, on average, 2.77 Mha/yr of forests were disturbed annually, representing 1.09%/yr of US forestland. These satellite-based national disturbance rates estimates tend to be lower than those derived from land management inventories, reflecting both methodological and definitional differences. In particular the VCT approach used with a biennial time step has limited sensitivity to low-intensity disturbances. Unlike prior satellite studies, our biennial forest disturbance rates vary by nearly a factor of two between high and low years. High western US disturbance rates were associated with active fire years and insect activity, while variability in the east is more strongly related to harvest rates in managed forests. We note that generating a geographic sample based on representing forest type and variability may be problematic since the spatial pattern of disturbance does not necessarily correlate with forest type. We also find that the prevalence of diffuse, non-stand clearing disturbance in US forests makes the application of a biennial geographic sample problematic. Future satellite-based studies of disturbance at regional and national scales should focus on wall-to-wall analyses with annual time step for improved accuracy.

United States forest disturbance trends observed with landsat time series

Science.gov (United States)

Jeffrey G. Masek; Samuel N. Goward; Robert E. Kennedy; Warren B. Cohen; Gretchen G. Moisen; Karen Schleweiss; Chengquan. Huang

2013-01-01

Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing US land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest...

Assessment of S(α, β) libraries for criticality safety evaluations of wet storage pools by refined trend analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolbe, E.; Vasiliev, A.; Ferroukhi, H.

2009-01-01

In a recent criticality safety evaluation (CSE) of a commercial wet storage pool applying MCNPX-2.5.0 in combination with the ENDF/B-VII.0 and JEFF-3.1 continuous energy cross section libraries, the maximum permissible initial fuel-enrichment limit for water reflected configurations was found to be dependant upon the applied neutron cross section library. More detailed investigations indicated that the difference is mainly caused by different sub-libraries for thermal neutron scattering based on parameterizations of the S(α, β) scattering matrix. Hence an analysis of trends was done with respect to the low energy neutron flux in order to assess the S(α, β) data sets. First, when performing the trend analysis based on the full set of 149 benchmarks that were employed for the validation, significant trends could not be found. But by analyzing a selected subset of benchmarks clear trends with respect to the low energy neutron flux could be detected. The results presented in this paper demonstrate the sensitivity of specific configurations to the parameterizations of the S(α, β) scattering matrix and thus may help to improve CSE of wet storage pools. Finally, in addition to the low energy neutron flux, we also refined the trend analyses with respect to other key (spectrum-related) parameters by performing them with various selected subsets of the full suite of 149 benchmarks. The corresponding outcome using MCNPX 2.5.0 in combination with the ENDF/B-VII.0, ENDF/B-VI.8, JEFF-3.1, JEF-2.2, and JENDL-3.3 neutron cross section libraries are presented and discussed. (authors)

Consumer trends and prefences in the demand for food

OpenAIRE

Lappo, Alena; Bjørndal, Trond; Fernandez-Polanco, Jose; Lem, Audun

2013-01-01

The objective of this report is to analyse the major tastes and preferences of consumers in food consumption, as well as expected changes in these over time. We identify five important consumer trends and purchase drivers: food safety and health benefits; corporate social responsibility; production systems and innovations; sustainability; and food origin. For each of these trends we will consider relevant actions that are being implemented by governments, non-governmental organisations (NGOs)...

Hybrid model for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and salendar variation patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Suhartono; Rahayu, S. P.; Prastyo, D. D.; Wijayanti, D. G. P.; Juliyanto

2017-09-01

Most of the monthly time series data in economics and business in Indonesia and other Moslem countries not only contain trend and seasonal, but also affected by two types of calendar variation effects, i.e. the effect of the number of working days or trading and holiday effects. The purpose of this research is to develop a hybrid model or a combination of several forecasting models to predict time series that contain trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. This hybrid model is a combination of classical models (namely time series regression and ARIMA model) and/or modern methods (artificial intelligence method, i.e. Artificial Neural Networks). A simulation study was used to show that the proposed procedure for building the hybrid model could work well for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. Furthermore, the proposed hybrid model is applied for forecasting real data, i.e. monthly data about inflow and outflow of currency at Bank Indonesia. The results show that the hybrid model tend to provide more accurate forecasts than individual forecasting models. Moreover, this result is also in line with the third results of the M3 competition, i.e. the hybrid model on average provides a more accurate forecast than the individual model.

Uranium price trends for use in strategy analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

James, R.A.

1979-09-01

Long-term price forecasts for mined uranium are quoted. These will be used in Ontario Hydro's nuclear fuel cycle strategy analyses. They are, of necessity, speculative. The accuracy of the forecasts is considered adequate for long-term strategy analyses, but not for other purposes. (auth)

Time-Trend in Epidemiological and Pathological Features of Schistosoma-Associated Bladder Cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

ZAGHLOUL, M.S.; EL-BARADIE, M.; NAZMY, M.; NOUH, A.; MONEER, M.; YOUNIS, A.

2008-01-01

To investigate the different emerging trends in the features of bladder cancer along 17 years. Patients and Methods: During a 17-year period (1988- 2004), 5071 epithelial bladder cancer patients underwent radical cystectomy at the National Cancer Institute (NCI), Cairo University, Egypt. The time was divided into 3 time periods to detect changes of the clinico pathologic features of patients in these periods. Results: There was a significant progressive increase in the patients' age with time and decrease in squamous/ transitional ratio, with transient increase in male predominance during the 2nd time period. Moreover, there was a decrease in the well differentiated (grade 1) tumor (p<0.001) and an increase in the frequency of pelvic nodal involvement (p<0.001). Transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) patients were significantly older than those with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (p<0.001). Progressive increase of age with time was evident in TCC, SCC and adenocarcinoma patients. Male to female ratio changed significantly in TCC and SCC. Conclusion: Time trend was confirmed with relative decrease in frequency of SCC and increase of TCC with changes in their pathological details. The differences between their characteristics and that of the Western countries are decreasing.

Analysis of trends of low flow in river stations in eastern Slovakia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martina Zeleňáková

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The availability of using hypothesis test techniques to identify the long-term trends of hydrological time series is investigated in this study. The aim is to analyse trends of low flows at streams in eastern Slovakia, namely Poprad, Hornád, Bodva, Bodrog river basins. The article presents a methodology for prediction of hydrological drought based on statistical testing of low stream flows by non-parametric statistical test. The main objective is to identify low flow trends in the selected 63 river stations in eastern Slovakia. The stations with human impacts are also evaluated. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test has been used to detect trends in hydrological time series. Statistically significant trends have been determined from the trend lines for the whole territory of eastern Slovakia. The results indicate that the observed changes in Slovakian river basins do not have a clearly defined trend.

Preterm birth time trends in Europe: A study of 19 countries

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zeitlin, J.; Szamotulska, K.; Drewniak, N.; Mohangoo, A.D.; Chalmers, J.; Sakkeus, L.; Irgens, L.; Gatt, M.; Gissler, M.; Blondel, B.

2013-01-01

Objective To investigate time trends in preterm birth in Europe by multiplicity, gestational age, and onset of delivery. Design Analysis of aggregate data from routine sources. Setting Nineteen European countries. Population Live births in 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008. Methods Annual risk ratios of

Drug formularies--good or evil? A view using prescribing analyses and cost trends data.

Science.gov (United States)

Chapman, S

1994-01-01

In the UK, the drugs bill has almost trebled in the last 10 years and is consuming an increasing proportion of the total National Health Service spend. If the drugs bill can be limited, greater funds will be available for other areas of the health service. Therefore, cost containment measures which include prescribing from a formulary or generic prescribing are now widely encouraged. Prescribing analyses and cost trends data generated from pharmacists sending dispensed general practitioners' prescriptions to a central point for reimbursement are a valuable tool in the assessment of prescribing habits and can be used by general practitioners when preparing a formulary. In the West Midlands, such data have been used to identify areas of growth in cardiovascular drugs and problem areas where prescribing an expensive formulation has led to a dramatic increase in costs.

Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

Science.gov (United States)

Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis

2016-01-01

Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions. PMID:26987606

Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Jae-Won; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Kim, Ho; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis; Mueller, Ivo

2016-01-01

This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jae-Won Park

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021, and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

Time trends of perfluorinated compounds from the sediment core of Tokyo Bay, Japan (1950s-2004)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zushi, Yasuyuki; Tamada, Masafumi; Kanai, Yutaka; Masunaga, Shigeki

2010-01-01

Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) were detected in sediment core samples collected in Tokyo Bay to reveal their time trends. The core sample deposited during 1950s-2004 was divided into two- to three-year intervals and the concentrations of 24 types of PFCs were determined. Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) decreased gradually from the early 1990s and its precursor decreased rapidly in the late 1990s, whereas perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) increased rapidly. The observed trends were regarded as a reflection of the shift from perfluorooctyl sulfonyl fluoride (PFOSF)-based products to telomer-based products after the phaseout of PFOSF-based products in 2001. The branched isomers of perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA) and perfluorotridecanoic acid (PFTrDA) were detected in the sample with its ratio of linear-isomer/branched-isomer concentrations decreasing. In this study, we revealed that the sediment core can serve as a tool for reconstructing the past pollution trend of PFCs and can provide interesting evidence concerning their environmental dynamics and time trend. - This study reports the time trends of the concentrations of 24 species of PFCs, including FTCA, FTUCA and FOSAA, in a sediment core of Tokyo Bay, Japan.

Nonparametric trend estimation in the presence of fractal noise: application to fMRI time-series analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Afshinpour, Babak; Hossein-Zadeh, Gholam-Ali; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid

2008-06-30

Unknown low frequency fluctuations called "trend" are observed in noisy time-series measured for different applications. In some disciplines, they carry primary information while in other fields such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) they carry nuisance effects. In all cases, however, it is necessary to estimate them accurately. In this paper, a method for estimating trend in the presence of fractal noise is proposed and applied to fMRI time-series. To this end, a partly linear model (PLM) is fitted to each time-series. The parametric and nonparametric parts of PLM are considered as contributions of hemodynamic response and trend, respectively. Using the whitening property of wavelet transform, the unknown components of the model are estimated in the wavelet domain. The results of the proposed method are compared to those of other parametric trend-removal approaches such as spline and polynomial models. It is shown that the proposed method improves activation detection and decreases variance of the estimated parameters relative to the other methods.

Tuberculosis in Mexico and the USA, Comparison of Trends Over Time 1990-2010

OpenAIRE

Hern?ndez-Gardu?o, Eduardo; Mendoza-Dami?n, Fabiola; Gardu?o-Alan?s, Adriana; Ay?n-Garibaldo, Salvador

2015-01-01

Background The aim was to compare tuberculosis trends in Mexico and United States and to evaluate Mexican diagnostic methods and contact investigation. Methods Retrospective comparative study of tuberculosis cases and incidence rates between both countries (1990-2010). Diagnostic methods and contact investigations were also evaluated for Mexico. Estimates were obtained from official websites. Results In Mexico, no clear trend was found over time for cases. Pulmonary (PTB) and all forms of tub...

Complementary feeding patterns in the first year of life in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: time trends from 1998 to 2008

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Daniel Alves de Oliveira

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to analyze time trends in complementary feeding practices among children under one year of age in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from 1998 to 2008. Based on comparable questions on food consumption in five surveys conducted in representative randomized samples of children in 1998 (n = 3,762, 2000 (n = 3,670, 2003 (n = 4,305, 2006 (n = 3,686, and 2008 (n = 2,621, 16 complementary feeding indicators were constructed. The percentage frequency of all indicators was estimated for each year of the study. Linear trend analyses were also conducted by means of multivariate regression models. All indicators of early complementary feeding decreased from 1998 to 2008. In the 6-11.9 month age group, there was a significant downward trend in the proportion of children receiving food with adequate consistency for their age, consumption of iron-rich foods, and overall adequacy of the diet. A significant upward trend in fruit consumption was observed. There was a decrease in the early complementary feeding, and generally a worsening of complementary feeding practices in children aged 6-11.9 months in Rio de Janeiro during the period studied.

Wet-bulb, dew point, and air temperature trends in Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Moratiel, R.; Soriano, B.; Centeno, A.; Spano, D.; Snyder, R. L.

2017-10-01

This study analyses trends of mean ( T m), maximum ( T x), minimum ( T n), dew point ( T d), and wet-bulb temperatures ( T w) on an annual, seasonal, and monthly time scale over Spain during the period 1981-2010. The main purpose was to determine how temperature and humidity changes are impacting on T w, which is probably a better measure of climate change than temperature alone. In this study, 43 weather stations were used to detect data trends using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen method to estimate the slope of trends. Significant linear trends observed for T m, T x, and T n versus year were 56, 58, and 47 % of the weather stations, respectively, with temperature ranges between 0.2 and 0.4 °C per decade. The months with bigger trends were April, May, June, and July with the highest trend for T x. The spatial behaviour of T d and T w was variable, with various locations showing trends from -0.6 to +0.3 °C per decade for T d and from -0.4 to +0.5 °C per decade for T w. Both T d and T w showed negative trends for July, August, September, November, and December. Comparing the trends versus time of each variable versus each of the other variables exhibited poor relationships, which means you cannot predict the trend of one variable from the trend of another variable. The trend of T x was not related to the trend of T n. The trends of T x, T m, and T n versus time were unrelated to the trends versus time of either T d or T w. The trend of T w showed a high coefficient of determination with the trend of T d with an annual value of R 2 = 0.86. Therefore, the T w trend is more related to changes in humidity than temperature.

Analyses of newly digitised and reconstructed snow series over the last 100+ years in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Scherrer, S. C.; Wüthrich, C.; Croci-Maspoli, M.; Appenzeller, C.

2010-09-01

Snow is an important socio-economic factor in the Swiss Alpine region (tourism, hydro-electricity, drinking water) and responsible for considerable natural hazards such as avalanches. In addition, high-quality long-term snow series can be used as an excellent indicator of climate change. The objectives of this study are threefold. First, suitable long-term snow series from different altitudes and regions in Switzerland have been selected, missing data digitized and the entire series quality checked. Second, the long-term snow series have been used for trend analyses over a time period >100 years. Third, snow depth series have been reconstructed using daily new snow, temperature and precipitation as input variables. This made it possible to analyse snow depth related variables such as days with snow pack. Results show that the snow cover is varying substantially on seasonal and decadal time scales. The analyses of the decadal new snow trends during the last 100 years shows unprecedented low new snow sums in the winter seasons (DJF) of the 1990s. The 100 year trend of days with snow pack reveals a significant decrease for stations below 800 m asl in the winter season (DJF) and for stations around 1800 m asl in spring (MAM). Similar results were found for seasonal new snow sums. The results of the trend analyses are also discussed with respect to temperature and precipitation trends. Finally we will also shortly discuss how especially "precious" snow measurements have been identified and incorporated in a National Basic Climatological Network (NBCN) as well as in the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS).

Onabotulinum toxin A dosage trends over time for adductor spasmodic dysphonia: A 15-year experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Christopher G; Novakovic, Daniel; Mor, Niv; Blitzer, Andrew

2016-03-01

Although onabotulinum neurotoxin A (BoNTA) has been used for over three decades for the treatment of adductor spasmodic dysphonia, no study has been performed to look at the trend of BoNTA dosages across time. The goal of this study is to evaluate the dosage trends to determine if the dosage necessary for voice improvement in patients increases over time. Charts were reviewed for patients with 15 years or more of experience. Linear regression analysis was performed to determine correlation coefficients and trends. Fifty-five patients receiving BoNTA injections by the senior author (a.b.) for over 15 years were evaluated. Thirty-nine patients (82% female) met inclusion criteria. Patients received injections over an average of 18.6 years ± 1.36 years, with the longest follow-up of 21.5 years. Of 39 patients, 16 (41%) had a negative correlation coefficient (Pearson's r) suggesting a decrease over time, whereas 23 (59%) had a positive correlation coefficient suggesting an increase over time. The mean correlation coefficient was 0.139 ± 0.534 and P  0.05 in 20 patients. R(2) for all patients were less than 0.75. Onabotulinum neurotoxin A injection dosage trends vary depending on the individual over time. Overall, the dose range appears to be stable in the majority of patients, suggesting that tolerance does not play a significant part in dose variation over time. 4. Laryngoscope, 126:678-681, 2016. © 2015 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Time Delay Systems Methods, Applications and New Trends

CERN Document Server

Vyhlídal, Tomáš; Niculescu, Silviu-Iulian; Pepe, Pierdomenico

2012-01-01

This volume is concerned with the control and dynamics of time delay systems; a research field with at least six-decade long history that has been very active especially in the past two decades. In parallel to the new challenges emerging from engineering, physics, mathematics, and economics, the volume covers several new directions including topology induced stability, large-scale interconnected systems, roles of networks in stability, and new trends in predictor-based control and consensus dynamics. The associated applications/problems are described by highly complex models, and require solving inverse problems as well as the development of new theories, mathematical tools, numerically-tractable algorithms for real-time control. The volume, which is targeted to present these developments in this rapidly evolving field, captures a careful selection of the most recent papers contributed by experts and collected under five parts: (i) Methodology: From Retarded to Neutral Continuous Delay Models, (ii) Systems, S...

The effect of interpolation methods in temperature and salinity trends in the Western Mediterranean

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M. VARGAS-YANEZ

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Temperature and salinity data in the historical record are scarce and unevenly distributed in space and time and the estimation of linear trends is sensitive to different factors. In the case of the Western Mediterranean, previous works have studied the sensitivity of these trends to the use of bathythermograph data, the averaging methods or the way in which gaps in time series are dealt with. In this work, a new factor is analysed: the effect of data interpolation. Temperature and salinity time series are generated averaging existing data over certain geographical areas and also by means of interpolation. Linear trends from both types of time series are compared. There are some differences between both estimations for some layers and geographical areas, while in other cases the results are consistent. Those results which do not depend on the use of interpolated or non-interpolated data, neither are influenced by data analysis methods can be considered as robust ones. Those results influenced by the interpolation process or the factors analysed in previous sensitivity tests are not considered as robust results.

HYPE: a WFD tool for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends in groundwater time series

Science.gov (United States)

Lopez, Benjamin; Croiset, Nolwenn; Laurence, Gourcy

2014-05-01

The Water Framework Directive 2006/11/CE (WFD) on the protection of groundwater against pollution and deterioration asks Member States to identify significant and sustained upward trends in all bodies or groups of bodies of groundwater that are characterised as being at risk in accordance with Annex II to Directive 2000/60/EC. The Directive indicates that the procedure for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends must be based on a statistical method. Moreover, for significant increases of concentrations of pollutants, trend reversals are identified as being necessary. This means to be able to identify significant trend reversals. A specific tool, named HYPE, has been developed in order to help stakeholders working on groundwater trend assessment. The R encoded tool HYPE provides statistical analysis of groundwater time series. It follows several studies on the relevancy of the use of statistical tests on groundwater data series (Lopez et al., 2011) and other case studies on the thematic (Bourgine et al., 2012). It integrates the most powerful and robust statistical tests for hydrogeological applications. HYPE is linked to the French national database on groundwater data (ADES). So monitoring data gathered by the Water Agencies can be directly processed. HYPE has two main modules: - a characterisation module, which allows to visualize time series. HYPE calculates the main statistical characteristics and provides graphical representations; - a trend module, which identifies significant breaks, trends and trend reversals in time series, providing result table and graphical representation (cf figure). Additional modules are also implemented to identify regional and seasonal trends and to sample time series in a relevant way. HYPE has been used successfully in 2012 by the French Water Agencies to satisfy requirements of the WFD, concerning characterization of groundwater bodies' qualitative status and evaluation of the risk of non-achievement of

Using a time-series statistical framework to quantify trends and abrupt change in US corn, soybean, and wheat yields from 1970-2016

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, J.; Ives, A. R.; Turner, M. G.; Kucharik, C. J.

2017-12-01

Previous studies have identified global agricultural regions where "stagnation" of long-term crop yield increases has occurred. These studies have used a variety of simple statistical methods that often ignore important aspects of time series regression modeling. These methods can lead to differing and contradictory results, which creates uncertainty regarding food security given rapid global population growth. Here, we present a new statistical framework incorporating time series-based algorithms into standard regression models to quantify spatiotemporal yield trends of US maize, soybean, and winter wheat from 1970-2016. Our primary goal was to quantify spatial differences in yield trends for these three crops using USDA county level data. This information was used to identify regions experiencing the largest changes in the rate of yield increases over time, and to determine whether abrupt shifts in the rate of yield increases have occurred. Although crop yields continue to increase in most maize-, soybean-, and winter wheat-growing areas, yield increases have stagnated in some key agricultural regions during the most recent 15 to 16 years: some maize-growing areas, except for the northern Great Plains, have shown a significant trend towards smaller annual yield increases for maize; soybean has maintained an consistent long-term yield gains in the Northern Great Plains, the Midwest, and southeast US, but has experienced a shift to smaller annual increases in other regions; winter wheat maintained a moderate annual increase in eastern South Dakota and eastern US locations, but showed a decline in the magnitude of annual increases across the central Great Plains and western US regions. Our results suggest that there were abrupt shifts in the rate of annual yield increases in a variety of US regions among the three crops. The framework presented here can be broadly applied to additional yield trend analyses for different crops and regions of the Earth.

Trends in Job Satisfaction among German Nurses from 1990 to 2012

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alameddine, Mohamad; Bauer, Jan Michael; Richter, Martin

2016-01-01

Objective: Improving the job satisfaction of nurses is essential to enhance their productivity and retention and to improve patient care. Our aim was to analyse trends in German nurses' job satisfaction to enhance understanding of the nursing labour market and inform future policies. Methods: We...... used 1990–2012 German Socioeconomic Panel data for trends in nurses' job satisfaction. Comparisons were drawn with doctors, other health care workers, and employees in other sectors of employment. Analysis explored associations between job satisfaction trends and other aspects of employment......, such as whether full time or part time and pay. To account for fluctuations across the period of analysis, linear trends were generated using ordinary least squares. Results: Over 23 years, job satisfaction of German nurses underwent a steady and gradual decline, dropping by an average 7.5%, whereas...

Analysis of monotonic greening and browning trends from global NDVI time-series

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jong, de R.; Bruin, de S.; Wit, de A.J.W.; Schaepman, M.E.; Dent, D.L.

2011-01-01

Remotely sensed vegetation indices are widely used to detect greening and browning trends; especially the global coverage of time-series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data which are available from 1981. Seasonality and serial auto-correlation in the data have previously been dealt

Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

Time trends in physical activity from 1982 to 2012 in Finland.

Science.gov (United States)

Borodulin, K; Harald, K; Jousilahti, P; Laatikainen, T; Männistö, S; Vartiainen, E

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine population trends from 1982 to 2012 in Finland for leisure time physical activity (LTPA), commuting physical activity (CPA), occupational physical activity (OPA), and total physical activity. Furthermore, time trends in physical activity by educational levels and body mass index (BMI) categories were explored. Data were collected in independent cross-sectional population surveys, implemented every 5 years from 1982 to 2012. The data comprised 21,903 men and 24,311 women. Participants underwent a health examination and filled in questionnaires. Information on LTPA, CPA, and OPA was used both separately and combined to create an index of total physical activity. Between 1982 and 2012, high LTPA has increased in men (from 21% to 33%) and women (from 12% to 27%). High CPA and high OPA have decreased in men (from 17% to 12% and from 48% to 36%, respectively) and women (from 30% to 20% and from 26% to 21%, respectively). Total physical activity has remained fairly stable. Differences by education and BMI have increased, particularly for LTPA. Marked changes in physical activity have taken place over time. Differences in LTPA and OPA have grown wider across educational groups and BMI categories. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjerregaard, Peter; Larsen, Christina Viskum Lytken

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the time trend by region of suicides...... and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. DESIGN: Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970-2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993-1994 and 2005-2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. RESULTS: Suicide rates were higher among men than...... women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital...

Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Bjerregaard

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Background: Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. Objective: To analyze the time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. Design: Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970–2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993–1994 and 2005–2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. Results: Suicide rates were higher among men than women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital, a continued increase to very high rates in remote East and North Greenland and a slow increase in villages relative to towns on the West Coast. Suicidal thoughts followed the regional pattern for completed suicides. Especially for women there was a noticeable increasing trend in the villages. The relative risk for suicide was highest among those who reported suicidal thoughts, but most suicides happened outside this high-risk group. Conclusion: Suicide rates and the prevalence of suicidal thoughts remain high in Greenland but different regional trends point towards an increased marginalization between towns on the central West Coast, villages and East and North Greenland. Different temporal patterns call for different regional strategies of prevention.

Time-trends in assisted and unassisted suicides completed with different methods: Swiss National Cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Steck, Nicole; Zwahlen, Marcel; Egger, Matthias

2015-01-01

The number of suicides assisted by right-to-die associations has increased in recent years in Switzerland. The aim of our study was to compare time trends in rates of assisted and unassisted suicide from 1991-2008. The Swiss National Cohort is a longitudinal study of mortality in the Swiss population; based on linkage of census data with mortality records up to 2008. The Federal Statistical Office coded suspected assisted suicides from 1998 onwards; and from 2003 onwards right-to-die associations reported the suicides they assisted. We used Poisson regression to analyse trends in rates of suicide per 100'000 person-years, by gender and age groups (15-34, 35-64, 65-94 years). A total of 7'940'297 individuals and 24'842 suicides were included. In women, rates changed little in the younger age groups but increased in 65-94-year-olds, due to an increase in suicide by poisoning (from 5.1 to 17.2 per 100'000; p suicides by poisoning was also observed in older men (from 8.6 to 18.2; psuicides by poisoning were assisted. In men, suicide rates declined in all age groups, driven by declines in suicide with firearms. Research is needed to gain a better understanding of the reasons for the tripling of assisted suicide rates in older women, and the doubling of rates in older men, of attitudes and vulnerabilities of those choosing assisted suicide, and of access to palliative care. Rates of assisted suicide should be monitored; including data on patient characteristics and underlying comorbidities.

Computer architecture technology trends

CERN Document Server

1991-01-01

Please note this is a Short Discount publication. This year's edition of Computer Architecture Technology Trends analyses the trends which are taking place in the architecture of computing systems today. Due to the sheer number of different applications to which computers are being applied, there seems no end to the different adoptions which proliferate. There are, however, some underlying trends which appear. Decision makers should be aware of these trends when specifying architectures, particularly for future applications. This report is fully revised and updated and provides insight in

TRENDS IN URBAN STORM WATER QUALITY IN TALLINN AND INFLUENCES FROM STORMFLOW AND BASEFLOW

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bharat Maharjan

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Temporal trends provide a good interpretation of change in stormwater quality over time. This study aimed to analyse trends and influences due to stormflow and baseflow. Grab samples of 18-19 years from 1995 to 2014 recorded at outlets of 7 Tallinn watersheds were analysed for monotonic trend through seasonal Mann Kendall test for long-term, short-term, baseflow and stormflow. Statistically significant downward trends (P-value (p 0.05 and < 0.2 for 3 – SS, 1 – BOD, 1 – TN and 1 – TP were identified. Statistically significant long-term upward trends of pH were revealed in 5 basins, which reduced to 2 with 5 less significant upward trends over the 10 year period, indicating improvements in pH reduction. Härjapea has the highest pH without trend but it includes an upward trend of TN at p = 0.051. The highly possible causes for downward trends are street sweeping, sewer network improvement, decline in sub-urban agricultural areas, etc. The upward trend results of pH are related to increased alkalinisation due to acidic rain, weathering of carbonate rocks, sewage discharge and alkaline road dust. In most of the basins, stormflow has more influence on trends than baseflow.

Development of a time-trend model for analyzing and predicting case-pattern of Lassa fever epidemics in Liberia, 2013-2017.

Science.gov (United States)

Olugasa, Babasola O; Odigie, Eugene A; Lawani, Mike; Ojo, Johnson F

2015-01-01

The objective was to develop a case-pattern model for Lassa fever (LF) among humans and derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of LF cases in Liberia in view of the prevailing under-reporting and public health challenge posed by the disease in the country. A retrospective 5 years data of LF distribution countrywide among humans were used to train a time-trend model of the disease in Liberia. A time-trend quadratic model was selected due to its goodness-of-fit (R2 = 0.89, and P Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. We proposed a computationally feasible two-stage space-time permutation approach to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on LF in Liberia.

Google Trends: Ready for real-time suicide prevention or just a Zeta-Jones effect? An exploratory study.

Science.gov (United States)

Fond, Guillaume; Gaman, Alexandru; Brunel, Lore; Haffen, Emmanuel; Llorca, Pierre-Michel

2015-08-30

Two studies have shown that increasing the consultation of the word "suicide" in the Google search engine was associated with a subsequent increase in the prevalence of suicide attempts. The main goal of this article was to explore the trends generated by a key-word search associated with suicide, depression and bipolarity in an attempt to identify general trends (disorders epidemics in the population/"real events" vs newsworthy advertisement/"media event"). Based on previous studies, the frequency of the search words "how to suicide" and "commit suicide" were analyzed for suicide, as well as "depression" (for depressive disorders) and "bipolar disorder". Together, these analyses suggest that the search for the words "how to suicide" or "commit suicide" on the Google search engine may be a good indicator for suicide prevention policies. However, the tool is not developed enough to date to be used as a real time dynamic indicator of suicide epidemics. The frequency of the search for the word "suicide" was associated with those for "depression" but not for "bipolar disorder", but searches for psychiatric conditions seem to be influenced by media events more than by real events in the general population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

River flood seasonality in the Northeast United States and trends in annual timing

Science.gov (United States)

Collins, M. J.

2017-12-01

The New England and Mid-Atlantic regions of the Northeast United States have experienced climate-associated increases in both the magnitude and frequency of floods. However, a detailed understanding of flood seasonality across these regions, and how flood seasonality may have changed over the instrumental record, has not been established. The annual timing of river floods reflects the flood-generating mechanisms operating in a basin and many aquatic and riparian organisms are adapted to flood seasonality, as are human uses of river channels and floodplains. Changes in flood seasonality may indicate changes in flood-generating mechanisms, and their interactions, with important implications for habitats, floodplain infrastructure, and human communities. For example, changes in spring or fall flood timing may negatively or positively affect a vulnerable life stage for a migratory fish (e.g., egg setting) depending on whether floods occur more frequently before or after the life history event. In this study I apply an objective, probabilistic method for identifying flood seasons at a monthly resolution for 90 climate-sensitive watersheds in New England and the Mid-Atlantic (Hydrologic Unit Codes 01 and 02). Historical trends in flood timing during the year are also investigated. The analyses are based on partial duration flood series that are an average of 85 years long. The seasonality of flooding in these regions, and any historical changes, are considered in the context of other ongoing or expected phenological changes in the Northeast U.S. environment that affect flood generation—e.g., the timing of leaf-off/leaf-out for deciduous plants. How these factors interact will affect whether and how flood magnitudes and frequencies change in the future and associated impacts.

Hydrologic Response to Climate Change: Missing Precipitation Data Matters for Computed Timing Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Daniels, B.

2016-12-01

This work demonstrates the derivation of climate timing statistics and applying them to determine resulting hydroclimate impacts. Long-term daily precipitation observations from 50 California stations were used to compute climate trends of precipitation event Intensity, event Duration and Pause between events. Each precipitation event trend was then applied as input to a PRMS hydrology model which showed hydrology changes to recharge, baseflow, streamflow, etc. An important concern was precipitation uncertainty induced by missing observation values and causing errors in quantification of precipitation trends. Many standard statistical techniques such as ARIMA and simple endogenous or even exogenous imputation were applied but failed to help resolve these uncertainties. What helped resolve these uncertainties was use of multiple imputation techniques. This involved fitting of Weibull probability distributions to multiple imputed values for the three precipitation trends.Permutation resampling techniques using Monte Carlo processing were then applied to the multiple imputation values to derive significance p-values for each trend. Significance at the 95% level for Intensity was found for 11 of the 50 stations, Duration from 16 of the 50, and Pause from 19, of which 12 were 99% significant. The significance weighted trends for California are Intensity -4.61% per decade, Duration +3.49% per decade, and Pause +3.58% per decade. Two California basins with PRMS hydrologic models were studied: Feather River in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and the central coast Soquel-Aptos. Each local trend was changed without changing the other trends or the total precipitation. Feather River Basin's critical supply to Lake Oroville and the State Water Project benefited from a total streamflow increase of 1.5%. The Soquel-Aptos Basin water supply was impacted by a total groundwater recharge decrease of -7.5% and streamflow decrease of -3.2%.

Empirical analyses on the development trend of non-ferrous metal industry under China’s new normal

Science.gov (United States)

Li, C. X.; Liu, C. X.; Zhang, Q. L.

2017-08-01

The CGE model of Yunnan’s macro economy was constructed based on the input-output data of Yunnan in 2012, and the development trend of the non-ferrous metals industry (NMI) under the China’s new normal was simulated. In view of this, according to different expected economic growth, and optimized economic structure, the impact on development of Yunnan NMI was simulated. The results show that the NMI growth rate is expected to decline when the economic growth show a downward trend, but the change of the proportion is relatively small. Moreover, the structure in proportion was adjusted to realize the economic structure optimization, while the proportion of NMI in GDP will decline. In contrast, the biggest influence on the NMI is the change of economic structure. From the statistics of last two years, we can see that NMI is growing, and at the same time, its proportion is declining, which is consistent with the results of simulation. But the adjustment of economic structure will take a long time. It is need to improve the proportion of deep-processing industry, extend the industrial chain, enhance the value chain, so as to be made good use of resource advantage.

NEW TRENDS IN MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Micu Alexandra

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Over the last years, management have been facing a series of profound changes in trends coming and going, one being more productive than other or causing more damage when applied improperly. The paper focuses on the last trends in management that have evolved in the last years, trends that have been marked by a Darwinian business environment and made more unforgiving since the financial crisis and the innovations in technology, social media and management philosophy. The paper will present and describe the most important new trends in management that enabled select organisations to remain competitive and overcome the multiple difficulties caused by the ever-changing economy based on a qualitative research. From the “outside innovation” that is considered always to be the key in overcoming the obstacles facing an organization, to the new buzzword “design”, that is said to ensure the organization long-term competitive advantage, the paper will analyse new trends and also will be describing the impact they have on the welfare of the organization. The research has also shown that managers tend to put a greater accent on searching for innovation rather than efficiency in order to ensure a continuous progress in the organization and to maintain business sustainability. The paper will not be comparing the efficiency of these different philosophies, or the results they generated, as time will still be the ultimate judge.

Assessment of land degradation using time series trend analysis of vegetation indictors in Otindag Sandy land

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, H Y; Li, Z Y; Gao, Z H; Wu, J J; Sun, B; Li, C L

2014-01-01

Land condition assessment is a basic prerequisite for finding the degradation of a territory, which might lead to desertification under climatic and human pressures. The temporal change in vegetation productivity is a key indicator of land degradation. In this paper, taking the Otindag Sandy Land as a case, the mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI a ), net primary production (NPP) and vegetation rain use efficiency (RUE) dynamic trends during 2001–2010 were analysed. The Mann-Kendall test and the Correlation Analysis method were used and their sensitivities to land degradation were evaluated. The results showed that the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE) showed a downward trend with the two methods in the past 10 years and the land was degraded. For the analysis of the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE), it indicated a decreasing trend in 62.57%, 74.16% and 88.56% of the study area according to the Mann-Kendall test and in 57.85%, 68.38% and 85.29% according to the correlation analysis method. However, the change trends were not significant, the significant trends at the 95% confidence level only accounted for a small proportion. Analysis of NDVI a , NPP and RUE series showed a significant decreasing trend in 9.21%, 4.81% and 6.51% with the Mann-Kendall test. The NPP change trends showed obvious positive link with the precipitation in the study area. While the effect of the inter-annual variation of the precipitation for RUE was small, the vegetation RUE can provide valuable insights into the status of land condition and had best sensitivity to land degradation

Global Search Trends of Oral Problems using Google Trends from 2004 to 2016: An Exploratory Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Patthi, Basavaraj; Kumar, Jishnu Krishna; Singla, Ashish; Gupta, Ritu; Prasad, Monika; Ali, Irfan; Dhama, Kuldeep; Niraj, Lav Kumar

2017-09-01

Oral diseases are pandemic cause of morbidity with widespread geographic distribution. This technology based era has brought about easy knowledge transfer than traditional dependency on information obtained from family doctors. Hence, harvesting this system of trends can aid in oral disease quantification. To conduct an exploratory analysis of the changes in internet search volumes of oral diseases by using Google Trends © (GT © ). GT © were utilized to provide real world facts based on search terms related to categories, interest by region and interest over time. Time period chosen was from January 2004 to December 2016. Five different search terms were explored and compared based on the highest relative search volumes along with comma separated value files to obtain an insight into highest search traffic. The search volume measured over the time span noted the term "Dental caries" to be the most searched in Japan, "Gingivitis" in Jordan, "Oral Cancer" in Taiwan, "No Teeth" in Australia, "HIV symptoms" in Zimbabwe, "Broken Teeth" in United Kingdom, "Cleft palate" in Philippines, "Toothache" in Indonesia and the comparison of top five searched terms provided the "Gingivitis" with highest search volume. The results from the present study offers an insight into a competent tool that can analyse and compare oral diseases over time. The trend research platform can be used on emerging diseases and their drift in geographic population with great acumen. This tool can be utilized in forecasting, modulating marketing strategies and planning disability limitation techniques.

Time Trends and Educational Inequalities in Out-of-Hospital Coronary Deaths in Norway 1995-2009

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sulo, Enxhela; Nygård, Ottar; Vollset, Stein Emil

2017-01-01

using Poisson regression analysis with year as the independent, continuous variable. Information on the highest achieved education was obtained from The National Education Database and classified as primary (up to 10 years of compulsory education), secondary (high school or vocational school......BACKGROUND: Recent time trends and educational gradients characterizing out-of-hospital coronary deaths (OHCD) are poorly described. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified all deaths from coronary heart disease occurring outside the hospital in Norway during 1995 to 2009. Time trends were explored......), or tertiary (college/university). Educational gradients in OHCD were explored using Poisson regression, stratified by sex and age (

Set-up errors analyses in IMRT treatments for nasopharyngeal carcinoma to evaluate time trends, PTV and PRV margins

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mongioj, Valeria (Dept. of Medical Physics, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale Tumori, Milan (Italy)), e-mail: valeria.mongioj@istitutotumori.mi.it; Orlandi, Ester (Dept. of Radiotherapy, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale Tumori, Milan (Italy)); Palazzi, Mauro (Dept. of Radiotherapy, A.O. Niguarda Ca' Granda, Milan (Italy)) (and others)

2011-01-15

Introduction. The aims of this study were to analyze the systematic and random interfractional set-up errors during Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) in 20 consecutive nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients by means of Electronic Portal Images Device (EPID), to define appropriate Planning Target Volume (PTV) and Planning Risk Volume (PRV) margins, as well as to investigate set-up displacement trend as a function of time during fractionated RT course. Material and methods. Before EPID clinical implementation, an anthropomorphic phantom was shifted intentionally 5 mm to all directions and the EPIs were compared with the digitally reconstructed radiographs (DRRs) to test the system's capability to recognize displacements observed in clinical studies. Then, 578 clinical images were analyzed with a mean of 29 images for each patient. Results. Phantom data showed that the system was able to correct shifts with an accuracy of 1 mm. As regards clinical data, the estimated population systematic errors were 1.3 mm for left-right (L-R), 1 mm for superior-inferior (S-I) and 1.1 mm for anterior-posterior (A-P) directions, respectively. Population random errors were 1.3 mm, 1.5 mm and 1.3 mm for L-R, S-I and A-P directions, respectively. PTV margin was at least 3.4, 3 and 3.2 mm for L-R, S-I and A-P direction, respectively. PRV margins for brainstem and spinal cord were 2.3, 2 and 2.1 mm and 3.8, 3.5 and 3.2 mm for L-R, A-P and S-I directions, respectively. Set-up error displacements showed no significant changes as the therapy progressed (p>0.05), although displacements >3 mm were found more frequently when severe weight loss or tumor nodal shrinkage occurred. Discussion. These results enable us to choose margins that guarantee with sufficient accuracy the coverage of PTVs and organs at risk sparing. Collected data confirmed the need for a strict check of patient position reproducibility in case of anatomical changes

Is there a time trend in medical practice variations?: a review of the literature and an critical analysis of theoretical approaches.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Groenewegen, P.P.; Westert, G.P.

2004-01-01

The aim of this study was to review the research evidence for a decreasing time trend in medical practice variation and to contribute to our theoretical understanding of trends in medical practice variations. We searched Pubmed for articles reporting on time trends in medical practice variations.

Analysing Memoir Topic Trends in the Social and Political Sciences ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

While the issue of plagiarism was not specifically addressed by this study, it is possible that the N-map trends portrayed by this research emerge in part because some students have used past memoirs as templates, possibly including indirect or direct copying. For this reason, the research concluded that while the majority ...

Water-quality trends in the nation’s rivers and streams, 1972–2012—Data preparation, statistical methods, and trend results

Science.gov (United States)

Oelsner, Gretchen P.; Sprague, Lori A.; Murphy, Jennifer C.; Zuellig, Robert E.; Johnson, Henry M.; Ryberg, Karen R.; Falcone, James A.; Stets, Edward G.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Riskin, Melissa L.; De Cicco, Laura A.; Mills, Taylor J.; Farmer, William H.

2017-04-04

Since passage of the Clean Water Act in 1972, Federal, State, and local governments have invested billions of dollars to reduce pollution entering rivers and streams. To understand the return on these investments and to effectively manage and protect the Nation’s water resources in the future, we need to know how and why water quality has been changing over time. As part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Project, of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Program, data from the U.S. Geological Survey, along with multiple other Federal, State, Tribal, regional, and local agencies, have been used to support the most comprehensive assessment conducted to date of surface-water-quality trends in the United States. This report documents the methods used to determine trends in water quality and ecology because these methods are vital to ensuring the quality of the results. Specific objectives are to document (1) the data compilation and processing steps used to identify river and stream sites throughout the Nation suitable for water-quality, pesticide, and ecology trend analysis, (2) the statistical methods used to determine trends in target parameters, (3) considerations for water-quality, pesticide, and ecology data and streamflow data when modeling trends, (4) sensitivity analyses for selecting data and interpreting trend results with the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season method, and (5) the final trend results at each site. The scope of this study includes trends in water-quality concentrations and loads (nutrient, sediment, major ion, salinity, and carbon), pesticide concentrations and loads, and metrics for aquatic ecology (fish, invertebrates, and algae) for four time periods: (1) 1972–2012, (2) 1982–2012, (3) 1992–2012, and (4) 2002–12. In total, nearly 12,000 trends in concentration, load, and ecology metrics were evaluated in this study; there were 11,893 combinations of sites, parameters, and trend periods. The

Trends in Overall Mortality, and Timing and Cause of Death among Extremely Preterm Infants near the Limit of Viability

Science.gov (United States)

Sung, Sein; Ahn, So Yoon; Park, Won Soon

2017-01-01

Objective To investigate the trends in mortality, as well as in the timing and cause of death, among extremely preterm infants at the limit of viability, and thus to identify the clinical factors that contribute to decreased mortality. Methods We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 382 infants born at 23–26 weeks’ gestation; 124 of the infants were born between 2001 and 2005 (period I) and 258 were born between 2006 and 2011 (period II). We stratified the infants into two subgroups–“23–24 weeks” and “25–26 weeks”–and retrospectively analyzed the clinical characteristics and mortality in each group, as well as the timing and cause of death. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were done to identify the clinical factors associated with mortality. Results The overall mortality rate in period II was 16.7% (43/258), which was significantly lower than that in period I (30.6%; 38/124). For overall cause of death, there were significantly fewer deaths due to sepsis (2.4% [6/258] vs. 8.1% [10/124], respectively) and air-leak syndrome (0.8% [2/258] vs. 4.8% (6/124), respectively) during period II than during period I. Among the clinical factors of time period, 1-and 5-min Apgar score, antenatal steroid identified significant by univariate analyses. 5-min Apgar score and antenatal steroid use were significantly associated with mortality in multivariate analyses. Conclusion Improved mortality rate attributable to fewer deaths due to sepsis and air leak syndrome in the infants with 23–26 weeks’ gestation was associated with higher 5-minute Apgar score and more antenatal steroid use. PMID:28114330

On Rigorous Drought Assessment Using Daily Time Scale: Non-Stationary Frequency Analyses, Revisited Concepts, and a New Method to Yield Non-Parametric Indices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles Onyutha

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Some of the problems in drought assessments are that: analyses tend to focus on coarse temporal scales, many of the methods yield skewed indices, a few terminologies are ambiguously used, and analyses comprise an implicit assumption that the observations come from a stationary process. To solve these problems, this paper introduces non-stationary frequency analyses of quantiles. How to use non-parametric rescaling to obtain robust indices that are not (or minimally skewed is also introduced. To avoid ambiguity, some concepts on, e.g., incidence, extremity, etc., were revisited through shift from monthly to daily time scale. Demonstrations on the introduced methods were made using daily flow and precipitation insufficiency (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration from the Blue Nile basin in Africa. Results show that, when a significant trend exists in extreme events, stationarity-based quantiles can be far different from those when non-stationarity is considered. The introduced non-parametric indices were found to closely agree with the well-known standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices in many aspects but skewness. Apart from revisiting some concepts, the advantages of the use of fine instead of coarse time scales in drought assessment were given. The links for obtaining freely downloadable tools on how to implement the introduced methods were provided.

Recent trend of radiation doses of medical workers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anzai, I [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Faculty of Medicine; Tanaka, M; Nakamura, S; Nawa, H; Nukazawa, A

1981-10-01

Radiation doses of medical workers in Japan between 1976 and 1979 were analysed based on the data provided by a film badge servicing company. Average annual radiation doses between April, 1978 and March, 1979 were 129 mrems for 2556 doctors, 108 mrems for 2074 radiographers, and 60 mrems for 1915 nurses. It was also suggested that the log-normal distribution could provide a good fit to the frequency distribution of radiation doses of these medical staffs. Time series data of monthly average doses during the period between April, 1976 and March, 1979 were analysed using a computer code named EPA that had been developed by the Japanese Economic Planning Agency. The EPA code separated the original time series data into three components, i.e., the trend and cycle factor, the seasonal factor and the irregular factor based on a multiplicative model. The results of analyses strongly suggested that there existed a significant common pattern among the trend factors of doctors, radiographers and nurses. The similar phenomenon was also observed about the seasonal factors. Some specific cases of medical workers who received considerably high radiation doses were studied, and it was pointed out that, in order to lower the doses of medical workers, the factors which are peculiar to each medical facility must be precisely examined in addition to the strengthening of general radiological protective measures.

Body-size trends of the extinct giant shark Carcharocles megalodon: a deep-time perspective on marine apex predators.

Science.gov (United States)

Pimiento, Catalina; Balk, Meghan A

2015-06-01

The extinct shark Carcharocles megalodon is one of the largest marine apex predators ever to exist. Nonetheless, little is known about its body-size variations through time and space. Here, we studied the body-size trends of C. megalodon through its temporal and geographic range to better understand its ecology and evolution. Given that this species was the last of the megatooth lineage, a group of species that shows a purported size increase through time, we hypothesized that C. megalodon also displayed this trend, increasing in size over time and reaching its largest size prior to extinction. We found that C. megalodon body-size distribution was left-skewed (suggesting a long-term selective pressure favoring larger individuals), and presented significant geographic variation (possibly as a result of the heterogeneous ecological constraints of this cosmopolitan species) over geologic time. Finally, we found that stasis was the general mode of size evolution of C. megalodon (i.e., no net changes over time), contrasting with the trends of the megatooth lineage and our hypothesis. Given that C. megalodon is a relatively long-lived species with a widely distributed fossil record, we further used this study system to provide a deep-time perspective to the understanding of the body-size trends of marine apex predators. For instance, our results suggest that (1) a selective pressure in predatory sharks for consuming a broader range of prey may favor larger individuals and produce left-skewed distributions on a geologic time scale; (2) body-size variations in cosmopolitan apex marine predators may depend on their interactions with geographically discrete communities; and (3) the inherent characteristics of shark species can produce stable sizes over geologic time, regardless of the size trends of their lineages.

World trends from 2017

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Janković Slobodan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Issue of prognosis, analyses of future trends is companion to statecraft, political, economic and military planning. How we plan, what does IR says about scientific prognosis. Jankovic starts with this set of issues in order to pass into prognosis itself based on observable world trends. He claims that European Union has entered its climax comparing it foreign policy situation with that of war situation of Third Reich in 1943. Article is divided in five parts. After presenting and criticizing Anglo-American approach in prognosis, he starts with analysis of the world order changes, of EU trends, Middle, Far East and some trends regarding Africa. Author presents macro trends in North - West Pacific, in Israel-Palestine, in Syria, Iraq, in Europe.

Detecting trends in forest disturbance and recovery using yearly Landsat time series: 1. LandTrendr — Temporal segmentation algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Robert E. Kennedy; Zhiqiang Yang; Warren B. Cohen

2010-01-01

We introduce and test LandTrendr (Landsat-based detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery), a new approach to extract spectral trajectories of land surface change from yearly Landsat time-series stacks (LTS). The method brings together two themes in time-series analysis of LTS: capture of short-duration events and smoothing of long-term trends. Our strategy is...

Temporal trends 1987-2002 of regulated POPs in beluga whales from the St. Lawrence Estuary, Canada

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lebeuf, M; Noel, M; Trottier, S.; Measures, L. [Fisheries and Oceans, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

2005-07-01

Beluga populations in the St. Lawrence Estuary (SLE) are now threatened. The decline of the beluga population has been attributed to the presence of high concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). This study assessed the temporal trends of POPs in beluga, including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), DDT, chlordanes, halogenated cyclic hydrocarbon (HCH) isomers, halogenated cyclic hydrocarbons (HCB), and mirex in SLE populations between 1987 and 2002. Blubber concentrations of individual POP or POP groups in both male and female belugas were fitted to simple natural algorithms using linear regression analyses. Only animals older than 10 years were examined. POPs, PCBs, and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were determined in blubber samples. Temporal trends of biological parameters such as age, lipid content, and length of the animals were assessed separately for both female and male belugas. POP concentrations were expressed on a lipid weight basis for the statistical analyses. Temporal trends of biological parameters, individual POP or POP group concentrations in both females and males were assessed using simple in-linear regression analysis from which half-life time was calculated for each statistically significant time trend. Results showed that approximately half of the POPs showed significant decreasing levels in female beluga between 1987 and 2002 and in males between 1988 and 2002. Temporal trends of PCBs, DDTs, and HCH were significant in both males and females, while chlordanes, and mirex levels were not significant in either sex. HCB exhibited a significant time trend in males. Time trends were in agreement with expected declines for regulated POPs. It was concluded that bioaccumulative POPs must be rapidly regulated before they reach high levels, as POP compounds are very slowly eliminated by belugas. 9 refs., 1 tab.

Fall prevalence, time trend and its related risk factors among elderly people in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Hong; Ouyang, Peng

2017-11-01

To study the fall prevalence, time trends and related risk factors among elderly people in the Chinese mainland from 2011 to 2013. Our data were from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2011 and 2013. The population sample included people aged 60 years and over. Whether the person had experienced fall accident in the last two years was used to measure fall incidence. The time trend and age groups were investigated through the chi-square test. The related risk factors were examined based on the binary logistic regression model. In 2011, 19.64% (95% CI, 18.66%, 20.67%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents and in 2013, 19.28% (95% CI, 18.46%, 20.13%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents. However, no significant difference was seen in the fall prevalence between 2011 and 2013. The fall prevalence among elderly people aged 66-70 declined significantly while that among people aged over 80 showed an increasing time trend. The fall prevalence was affected significantly by factors including age (66-70), gender, marital status, self-rated health, quantity of chronic diseases, quantity of disability items, activities of daily living and physical functioning. It is revealed the fall prevalence showed no increment from 2011 to 2013 but at a high level. More efforts should be made to reduce the fall prevalence, and special attention should be paid to the elderly people aged over 80 and older. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Solar radiation in Germany - observed trends and an assessment of the causes. Pt. 2; Detailed trend analysis for Hamburg

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grabbe, G C [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.; Grassl, H [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst. Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

1994-02-01

In Part II, more detailed observations of solar radiation hourly averages of Hamburg were analysed. Global solar radiation, strongly influenced by clouds, decreased with a low significance between 1964 and 1989. The significance of the trend of increasing direct solar radiation in the same period is very weak, because the clouds play the dominant role. The diffuse solar radiation, which is a safe indicator for trends in solar irradiance, because it is relatively independent of the weather, decreased between 1964 and 1989. The reasons for this decrease are the measures to clean the air. Between 1975 and 1987 the diffuse solar radiation increased slightly. The reason for this fact is a doubling of optically active aerosol particles in the atmospheric boundary layer in this time period. (orig.)

A practical procedure for the selection of time-to-failure models based on the assessment of trends in maintenance data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Louit, D.M.; Pascual, R.; Jardine, A.K.S.

2009-01-01

Many times, reliability studies rely on false premises such as independent and identically distributed time between failures assumption (renewal process). This can lead to erroneous model selection for the time to failure of a particular component or system, which can in turn lead to wrong conclusions and decisions. A strong statistical focus, a lack of a systematic approach and sometimes inadequate theoretical background seem to have made it difficult for maintenance analysts to adopt the necessary stage of data testing before the selection of a suitable model. In this paper, a framework for model selection to represent the failure process for a component or system is presented, based on a review of available trend tests. The paper focuses only on single-time-variable models and is primarily directed to analysts responsible for reliability analyses in an industrial maintenance environment. The model selection framework is directed towards the discrimination between the use of statistical distributions to represent the time to failure ('renewal approach'); and the use of stochastic point processes ('repairable systems approach'), when there may be the presence of system ageing or reliability growth. An illustrative example based on failure data from a fleet of backhoes is included.

Space-time trends in U.S. meteorological droughts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Poulomi Ganguli

2016-12-01

New hydrological insights for the region: The paper finds spatial coverage of extreme meteorological drought in the recent years (post-2010 exceeds that of the iconic droughts of the 1930s (the Dust Bowl era, and the 1950s. These results are in contrast with trends in spatial variance that does not exhibit any statistically significant trend. In addition, we find drought persistence remains relatively stationary over the last half century. The findings can inform drought monitoring and planning, and improve future drought resilience.

Trends in GIS: an environmental perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ringrose, S.

1992-01-01

Trends in the Geographic Information System (GIS) have long been difficult to assess comprehensively because of the different perspective of the large number of players in the GIS game. This work represents an overview intended as background to the Workshop Proceedings. As the term GIS means different things to different people the intent is to start with definitions followed by a discussion of data models and inherent functionality of GIS systems. Recent trends are also considered in the context of environmental analyses. Problems arise when considering environmental monitoring due to the paucity of explicit functions dealing with change detection through time. Here parallels are drawn with recent studies which have used the integration of GIS and remotely sensed data. Reasons behind the functional limitations of GIS because apparent as the historical evolution of present day GIS systems is considered, although to some extent these are mitigated by future trends. Finally consideration is given to the role of GIS in assisting with mine site development and especially mine site rehabilitation. 23 refs

Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record

Science.gov (United States)

Poppick, Andrew; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Stein, Michael L.

2017-06-01

Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to de-emphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for internal variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. However, given a limited data record and the presence of internal variability, estimating radiatively forced temperature trends in the historical record necessarily requires some assumptions. Ostensibly empirical methods can also involve an inherent conflict in assumptions: they require data records that are short enough for naive trend models to be applicable, but long enough for long-timescale internal variability to be accounted for. In the context of global mean temperatures, empirical methods that appear to de-emphasize assumptions can therefore produce misleading inferences, because the trend over the twentieth century is complex and the scale of temporal correlation is long relative to the length of the data record. We illustrate here how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable trend estimates and can allow for a wider array of questions to be addressed. In particular, the model allows one to distinguish, within a single statistical framework, between uncertainties in the shorter-term vs. longer-term response to radiative forcing, with implications not only on historical trends but also on uncertainties in future projections. We also investigate the consequence on inferred uncertainties of the choice of a statistical description of internal variability. While nonparametric methods may seem to avoid making explicit assumptions, we demonstrate how even misspecified parametric statistical methods, if attuned to the

Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

2008-01-01

different methods. As a result, conclusions from data comparisons have not been consistent. An expert panel was asked to evaluate the weight of evidence for whether the data, collected from 1940 to 1994, are sufficient to suggest or establish a secular trend in the timing of puberty markers in US boys...

Time trends of chronic HBV infection over prior decades - A global analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ott, Jördis J; Horn, Johannes; Krause, Gérard; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T

2017-01-01

Information on trends in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevalence across countries is lacking. We studied changes in chronic HBV infection over previous decades by country, and assessed patterns of change between and within WHO-defined regions. Based on data from a published systematic review on chronic HBV, we applied a linear model on the logit scale to assess time trends in country-specific prevalence. Estimated HBsAg prevalence in 2000 and relative changes in prevalence over time were evaluated by country and region. Sufficient data were available for 50 countries, mostly showing reductions in prevalence over time. Various degrees of heterogeneity were observed within regions, with a relatively homogenous pattern in the Eastern Mediterranean region with strong decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Europe showed a mixed pattern: higher and stable chronic HBsAg prevalence in Eastern, and constantly low prevalence in Western Europe. In Africa, some countries demonstrated no change in prevalence; increases were seen in Uganda (odds ratio 1.05 per year; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.06), Nigeria (1.02; 1.02-1.02), Senegal (1.01; 1.01-1.02), and South Africa (1.02; 1.01-1.02). With some exceptions, country-patterns overlapped among countries of South East Asian and Western Pacific regions, characterized by low-medium HBsAg decreases, most prominent in China and Malaysia. Most countries experienced decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Dynamics varied, even within regions; decreases occurred mostly before the direct effects of childhood vaccination may have manifested. These findings together with stable and increasing HBsAg prevalence in some countries of Africa and Eastern Europe indicate the need for further tailored country-specific prevention. This study investigated time trends in prevalence of chronic HBV infection in 50 countries worldwide over the last decade, by estimating relative changes in prevalence. Results show decreases in chronic HBV infection in most countries

Twenty-five year socioeconomic trends in leisure-time and commuting physical activity among employed Finns.

Science.gov (United States)

Mäkinen, T; Borodulin, K; Laatikainen, T; Fogelholm, M; Prättälä, R

2009-04-01

The trend of socioeconomic differences in physical activity is largely unknown in Finland. In this study, we examined socioeconomic trends in leisure-time and commuting physical activity among Finns in 1978-2002. Nationwide data were derived from an annually repeated cross-sectional Finnish Adult Health Behavior Survey. People under the age of 25, students, the unemployed, and retirees were excluded from the analysis. The final data set included 25 513 women and 25 302 men. Socioeconomic variables included education, occupation, and household income. Odds ratios for being physically active and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. People with the lowest income were less leisure-time and commuting physically active. Among women, low occupational status was associated with high commuting physical activity whereas among men such an association was not found. No educational differences among men in leisure-time and commuting physical activity over time were found. Some indications were found that educational differences in leisure-time physical activity among women might have been reversed. Our data suggest that socioeconomic differences in leisure-time and commuting physical activity are quite small and have remained similar between 1978 and 2002.

Time trends in leisure time physical activity and physical fitness in the elderly: five-year follow-up of the Spanish National Health Survey (2006-2011).

Science.gov (United States)

Casado-Pérez, Carmen; Hernández-Barrera, Valentín; Jiménez-García, Rodrigo; Fernández-de-las-Peñas, Cesar; Carrasco-Garrido, Pilar; López-de-Andrés, Ana; Jimenez-Trujillo, Ma Isabel; Palacios-Ceña, Domingo

2015-04-01

To estimate the trends in the practice of leisure time physical activity, walking up 10 steps, and walking for 1h, during the years 2006-2011, in elderly Spanish people. Observational study, retrospective analysis of Spanish National Health Surveys. We analysed data collected from the Spanish National Health Surveys conducted in 2006 (n=30,072) and 2011 (n=21,007), through self-reported information. The number of subjects aged ≥65 years included in the current study was n=5756 in 2006 (19.14%) and n=4617 in 2011 (21.97%). We included responses from adults aged 65 years and older. The main variables included leisure-time physical activity, walking up 10 steps, and walking for 1h. We analysed socio-demographic characteristics, individuals' self-rated health status, lifestyle habits, co-morbid conditions and disability using multivariable logistic regression models. The total number of subjects was 10,373 (6076 women, 4297 men). The probability of self-reported capacity was significantly higher in 2006 than in 2011 for leisure-time physical activity, walking up 10 steps, and walking for 1h for both sexes (women: OR 2.20, 95%IC 1.91-5.55; OR 2.50, 95%IC 1.99-3.14; OR 1.04, 95%IC 1.01-1.07; men: OR 2.20, 95%IC 1.91-2.55; OR 2.01, 95%IC 1.40-2.89; OR 1.05, 95%IC 1.0-1.1) respectively. Both sexes were associated with a significantly lower probability of performing leisure-time physical activity, walking up 10 steps, and walking for 1h. Additionally, those over 80 years of age, on average, showed a poor or very poor perception of their health and presented with some type of disability. A decrease in the proportion of respondents who self-reported undertaking leisure-time physical activity, walking up 10 steps, and walking for 1h was observed in the Spanish population of over 65 years between 2006 and 2011. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time series trends of the safety effects of pavement resurfacing.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Juneyoung; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Jung-Han

2017-04-01

This study evaluated the safety performance of pavement resurfacing projects on urban arterials in Florida using the observational before and after approaches. The safety effects of pavement resurfacing were quantified in the crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimated based on different ranges of heavy vehicle traffic volume and time changes for different severity levels. In order to evaluate the variation of CMFs over time, crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were developed using nonlinear regression and time series models. The results showed that pavement resurfacing projects decrease crash frequency and are found to be more safety effective to reduce severe crashes in general. Moreover, the results of the general relationship between the safety effects and time changes indicated that the CMFs increase over time after the resurfacing treatment. It was also found that pavement resurfacing projects for the urban roadways with higher heavy vehicle volume rate are more safety effective than the roadways with lower heavy vehicle volume rate. Based on the exploration and comparison of the developed CMFucntions, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential functional form of the nonlinear regression models can be utilized to identify the trend of CMFs over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in hospital admissions and surgical procedures for degenerative lumbar spine disease in England: a 15-year time-series study

Science.gov (United States)

Sivasubramaniam, Vinothan; Patel, Hitesh C; Ozdemir, Baris A; Papadopoulos, Marios C

2015-01-01

Objectives Low back pain (LBP), from degenerative lumbar spine disease, represents a significant burden on healthcare resources. Studies worldwide report trends attributable to their country's specific demographics and healthcare system. Considering England's specific medico-socioeconomic conditions, we investigate recent trends in hospital admissions and procedures for LBP, and discuss the implications for the allocation of healthcare resources. Design Retrospective cohort study using Hospital Episode Statistics data relating to degenerative lumbar spine disease in England, between 1999 and 2013. Regression models were used to analyse trends. Outcome measures Trends in the number of admissions and procedures for LBP, mean patient age, gender and length of stay. Results Hospital admissions and procedures have increased significantly over the study period, from 127.09 to 216.16 and from 24.5 to 48.83 per 100 000, respectively, (pdisease, and highlight the need for services capable of dealing with the increased comorbidity burden associated with an ageing patient group. PMID:26671956

Evolving Trends in Public Opinion on the Quality of Local Schools

Science.gov (United States)

Bali, Valentina A.

2016-01-01

The ratings given by citizens to local public schools in the United States have been rising in the last decades. Using national public opinion surveys, this study seeks to understand the determinants of public evaluations of local schools across time. Aggregate trend analyses indicate that public evaluations of local schools are influenced not…

Trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation time series over Greece: 1955-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Marougianni, G.; Melas, D.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Anandranistakis, E.

2012-04-01

In this study, a database of air temperature and precipitation time series from the network of Hellenic National Meteorological Service has been developed in the framework of the project GEOCLIMA, co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009. Initially, a quality test was applied to the raw data and then missing observations have been imputed with a regularized, spatial-temporal expectation - maximization algorithm to complete the climatic record. Next, a quantile - matching algorithm was applied in order to verify the homogeneity of the data. The processed time series were used for the calculation of temporal annual and seasonal trends of air temperature and precipitation. Monthly maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation means at all available stations in Greece were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns for the longest common time period of homogenous data (1955 - 2010), applying the Mann-Kendall test. The majority of the examined stations showed a significant increase in the summer maximum and minimum temperatures; this could be possibly physically linked to the Etesian winds, because of the less frequent expansion of the low over the southeastern Mediterranean. Summer minimum temperatures have been increasing at a faster rate than that of summer maximum temperatures, reflecting an asymmetric change of extreme temperature distributions. Total annual precipitation has been significantly decreased at the stations located in western Greece, as well as in the southeast, while the remaining areas exhibit a non-significant negative trend. This reduction is very likely linked to the positive phase of the NAO that resulted in an increase in the frequency and persistence of anticyclones over the Mediterranean.

Time trends in mental health care utilization in a Dutch area, 1976-1990

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oldehinkel, AJ

This paper concerns time trends in mental health care utilization in a Dutch area from 1976 to 1990. In general, there was an increase in the use of psychiatric services during the study period, both in terms of the number of new patients (per 1000 population) and in terms of the amount of care

Television Viewing at Home: Age Trends in Visual Attention and Time with TV.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Daniel R.; And Others

1986-01-01

Decribes age trends in television viewing time and visual attention of children and adults videotaped in their homes for 10-day periods. Shows that the increase in visual attention to television during the preschool years is consistent with the theory that television program comprehensibility is a major determinant of attention in young children.…

Time trends of physical activity in Brazil (2006-2009).

Science.gov (United States)

Hallal, Pedro C; Knuth, Alan G; Reis, Rodrigo S; Rombaldi, Airton J; Malta, Deborah C; Iser, Betine P M; Bernal, Regina T I; Florindo, Alex A

2011-09-01

To examine time trends in physical activity (PA) in Brazilian state capitals from 2006 to 2009. This analysis is based on data from the Telephone-based Surveillance of Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases (VIGITEL) accounting for an annual sample of approximately 54,000 individuals. PA indicators were analyzed in free time (leisure), work, home and transportation, time spent in front of the television and inactivity considering all PA domains. Poisson regression models were used to measure the variation of indicators over time. We considered the changes corresponding to a regression coefficient different from zero as being statistically significant (p<0.05). The percentage of active commuters increased from 11.7 to 14.4% (p<0.001) whereas the proportion of physically inactive individuals in the four domains decreased from 11.7 to 8.7% (p<0.001). There were no significant changes in the other indicators. Women were less active than men in all indicators, except for household chores. However, in this indicator the percentage of active women decreased from 71.4 to 67.1% (p<0.001). Between 2006 and 2009, PA levels in the Brazilian population were stable during free time and household chores, but increased in transportation, resulting in a decrease in the percentage of inactive individuals. The continued monitoring and strengthening of VIGITEL are public health priorities, and PA is a key part of it. In the long run, PA evolution may be re-evaluated.

De-trending of turbulence measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

2007-01-01

based on time series statistics only. The performance of the proposed de-trending algorithm is assessed using huge number of time series recorded at different types of terrain and orography. The strategy is the following: Based on the available time series information a conventional (linear) time series...... de-trending is performed and subsequently compared with the prediction from the proposed algorithm. The de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced in the range of 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. The performed analysis shows that the proposed model, based on statistical...... this requires access to the basic time-series. However, including a suitable modelling of the mean wind speed time variation, it is possible to estimate an approximate (linear) trend correction based on statistical data only. This paper presents such an algorithm for de-trending of turbulence standard deviation...

A three-stage hybrid model for regionalization, trends and sensitivity analyses of temperature anomalies in China from 1966 to 2015

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Feifei; Yang, XiaoHua; Shen, Zhenyao

2018-06-01

Temperature anomalies have received increasing attention due to their potentially severe impacts on ecosystems, economy and human health. To facilitate objective regionalization and examine regional temperature anomalies, a three-stage hybrid model with stages of regionalization, trends and sensitivity analyses was developed. Annual mean and extreme temperatures were analyzed using the daily data collected from 537 stations in China from 1966 to 2015, including the annual mean, minimum and maximum temperatures (Tm, TNm and TXm) as well as the extreme minimum and maximum temperatures (TNe and TXe). The results showed the following: (1) subregions with coherent temperature changes were identified using the rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis and K-means clustering algorithm. The numbers of subregions were 6, 7, 8, 9 and 8 for Tm, TNm, TXm, TNe and TXe, respectively. (2) Significant increases in temperature were observed in most regions of China from 1966 to 2015, although warming slowed down over the last decade. This warming primarily featured a remarkable increase in its minimum temperature. For Tm and TNm, 95% of the stations showed a significant upward trend at the 99% confidence level. TNe increased the fastest, at a rate of 0.56 °C/decade, whereas 21% of the stations in TXe showed a downward trend. (3) The mean temperatures (Tm, TNm and TXm) in the high-latitude regions increased more quickly than those in the low-latitude regions. The maximum temperature increased significantly at high elevations, whereas the minimum temperature increased greatly at middle-low elevations. The most pronounced warming occurred in eastern China in TNe and northwestern China in TXe, with mean elevations of 51 m and 2098 m, respectively. A cooling trend in TXe was observed at the northwestern end of China. The warming rate in TNe varied the most among the subregions (0.63 °C/decade).

Time trends of perfluorinated alkyl acids in serum from Danish pregnant women 2008-2013

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjerregaard-Olesen, Christian; Bach, Cathrine C; Long, Manhai

2016-01-01

for sixteen PFAAs using solid phase extraction and liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). We investigated the time trends for seven PFAAs, which were detected in more than 50% of the samples: perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), perfluoroheptane sulfonate (PFHpS), perfluorooctane sulfonate...

Time-trend analyses of bleeding and mortality after primary percutaneous coronary intervention during out of working hours versus in-working hours: an observational study of 11 466 patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Iqbal, M Bilal; Khamis, Ramzi; Ilsley, Charles; Mikhail, Ghada; Crake, Tom; Firoozi, Sam; Kalra, Sundeep; Knight, Charles; Archbold, Andrew; Lim, Pitt; Mathur, Anthony; Meier, Pascal; Rakhit, Roby D; Redwood, Simon; Whitbread, Mark; Bromage, Dan; Rathod, Krishna; Jones, Daniel A; Wragg, Andrew; Dalby, Miles; MacCarthy, Phil; Malik, Iqbal S

2015-06-01

Primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) is the treatment of choice for ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. Resources are limited during out of working hours (OWH). Whether PPCI outside working hours is associated with worse outcomes and whether outcomes have improved over time are unknown. We analyzed 11 466 patients undergoing PPCI between 2004 and 2011 at all 8 tertiary cardiac centers in London, United Kingdom. We defined working hours as 9 am to 5 pm (Monday to Friday). We analyzed in-hospital bleeding and all-cause mortality ≤3 years, comparing OWH versus in-working hours. A total of 7494 patients (65.3%) were treated during OWH. Multivariable analyses demonstrated that PPCI during OWH was not a predictor for bleeding (odds ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97-2.24; P=0.071) or 3-year mortality (hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.94-1.32; P=0.20). This was confirmed in propensity-matched analyses. Time-stratified analyses demonstrated that PPCI during OWH was a predictor for bleeding (odds ratio, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.06-3.80; P=0.034) and 3-year mortality during 2005 to 2008 (hazard ratio, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.00-1.50; P=0.050), but this association was lost during 2009 to 2011. During 2005 to 2008, transradial access was predominantly used during in-working hours and PPCI during OWH was predictive of reduced transradial access use (odds ratio, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.71-0.98; P=0.033), but this association was lost during 2009 to 2011. In this study of unselected patients with ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction, PPCI during OWH versus in-working hours had comparable bleeding and mortality. Time-stratified analyses demonstrated a reduction in adjusted bleeding and mortality during OWH over time. This may reflect the improved service provision, but the increased adoption of transradial access during OWH may also be contributory. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Effects of lek count protocols on greater sage-grouse population trend estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Monroe, Adrian; Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.

2016-01-01

Annual counts of males displaying at lek sites are an important tool for monitoring greater sage-grouse populations (Centrocercus urophasianus), but seasonal and diurnal variation in lek attendance may increase variance and bias of trend analyses. Recommendations for protocols to reduce observation error have called for restricting lek counts to within 30 minutes of sunrise, but this may limit the number of lek counts available for analysis, particularly from years before monitoring was widely standardized. Reducing the temporal window for conducting lek counts also may constrain the ability of agencies to monitor leks efficiently. We used lek count data collected across Wyoming during 1995−2014 to investigate the effect of lek counts conducted between 30 minutes before and 30, 60, or 90 minutes after sunrise on population trend estimates. We also evaluated trends across scales relevant to management, including statewide, within Working Group Areas and Core Areas, and for individual leks. To further evaluate accuracy and precision of trend estimates from lek count protocols, we used simulations based on a lek attendance model and compared simulated and estimated values of annual rate of change in population size (λ) from scenarios of varying numbers of leks, lek count timing, and count frequency (counts/lek/year). We found that restricting analyses to counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise generally did not improve precision of population trend estimates, although differences among timings increased as the number of leks and count frequency decreased. Lek attendance declined >30 minutes after sunrise, but simulations indicated that including lek counts conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise can increase the number of leks monitored compared to trend estimates based on counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. This increase in leks monitored resulted in greater precision of estimates without reducing accuracy. Increasing count

Agenda Trending: Reciprocity and the Predictive Capacity of Social Networking Sites in Intermedia Agenda Setting across Topics over Time

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jacob Groshek

2013-08-01

Full Text Available In the contemporary converged media environment, agenda setting is being transformed by the dramatic growth of audiences that are simultaneously media users and producers. The study reported here addresses related gaps in the literature by first comparing the topical agendas of two leading traditional media outlets (New York Times and CNN with the most frequently shared stories and trending topics on two widely popular Social Networking Sites (Facebook and Twitter. Time-series analyses of the most prominent topics identify the extent to which traditional media sets the agenda for social media as well as reciprocal agenda-setting effects of social media topics entering traditional media agendas. In addition, this study examines social intermedia agenda setting topically and across time within social networking sites, and in so doing, adds a vital understanding of where traditional media, online uses, and social media content intersect around instances of focusing events, particularly elections. Findings identify core differences between certain traditional and social media agendas, but also within social media agendas that extend from uses examined here. Additional results further suggest important topical and event-oriented limitations upon the predictive capacit of social networking sites to shape traditional media agendas over time.

Statistical significance approximation in local trend analysis of high-throughput time-series data using the theory of Markov chains.

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Li C; Ai, Dongmei; Cram, Jacob A; Liang, Xiaoyi; Fuhrman, Jed A; Sun, Fengzhu

2015-09-21

Local trend (i.e. shape) analysis of time series data reveals co-changing patterns in dynamics of biological systems. However, slow permutation procedures to evaluate the statistical significance of local trend scores have limited its applications to high-throughput time series data analysis, e.g., data from the next generation sequencing technology based studies. By extending the theories for the tail probability of the range of sum of Markovian random variables, we propose formulae for approximating the statistical significance of local trend scores. Using simulations and real data, we show that the approximate p-value is close to that obtained using a large number of permutations (starting at time points >20 with no delay and >30 with delay of at most three time steps) in that the non-zero decimals of the p-values obtained by the approximation and the permutations are mostly the same when the approximate p-value is less than 0.05. In addition, the approximate p-value is slightly larger than that based on permutations making hypothesis testing based on the approximate p-value conservative. The approximation enables efficient calculation of p-values for pairwise local trend analysis, making large scale all-versus-all comparisons possible. We also propose a hybrid approach by integrating the approximation and permutations to obtain accurate p-values for significantly associated pairs. We further demonstrate its use with the analysis of the Polymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) microbial community time series from high-throughput sequencing data and found interesting organism co-occurrence dynamic patterns. The software tool is integrated into the eLSA software package that now provides accelerated local trend and similarity analysis pipelines for time series data. The package is freely available from the eLSA website: http://bitbucket.org/charade/elsa.

Integrated Project Delivery (IPD Research Trends.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kahvandi, Z.

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Integrated Project Delivery (IPD is introduced as a vibrant approach to enhance project implementation, having particular position in recent studies among construction researchers. This study analyzes the research trends on the field of IPD to provide an appropriate vision for future researchers in this specialized field. While so far no comprehensive research has been done in this field, this study provides a comprehensive review of existing studies through in-depth literature review method. This research evaluates studies conducted in the field of IPD, which is a basis for future researchers to improve conditions of IPD implementation in different countries. For that this study Using library studies, the trend of researches conducted on various concepts and domains during various years, has been investigated. Future studies can simply use the outputs of this research to shape their research flow on establishing continuing progress of IPD. The data obtained from descriptive analyses are illustrated quantitatively, followed by comprehensive analyses and discussion of the results. Moreover, this study concluded that during recent years, the trend of studies conducted about IPD has increased, particularly articles examined challenges. In the next step, more studies have been performed in the field of construction. Those articles are preferred that have evaluated principles, challenges, and solutions for resolving barriers. Proper IPD implementation facilitates enhanced share of information and early identification of stakeholders through a proper timing as vital keys to realize objectives of the construction projects, reduce risks, and increase the chance of project success.

Area-level risk factors for adverse birth outcomes: trends in urban and rural settings

OpenAIRE

Kent, Shia T; McClure, Leslie A; Zaitchik, Ben F; Gohlke, Julia M

2013-01-01

Background Significant and persistent racial and income disparities in birth outcomes exist in the US. The analyses in this manuscript examine whether adverse birth outcome time trends and associations between area-level variables and adverse birth outcomes differ by urban?rural status. Methods Alabama births records were merged with ZIP code-level census measures of race, poverty, and rurality. B-splines were used to determine long-term preterm birth (PTB) and low birth weight (LBW) trends b...

Depth-time interpolation of feature trends extracted from mobile microelectrode data with kernel functions.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Stephen; Hargreaves, Eric L; Baltuch, Gordon H; Jaggi, Jurg L; Danish, Shabbar F

2012-01-01

Microelectrode recording (MER) is necessary for precision localization of target structures such as the subthalamic nucleus during deep brain stimulation (DBS) surgery. Attempts to automate this process have produced quantitative temporal trends (feature activity vs. time) extracted from mobile MER data. Our goal was to evaluate computational methods of generating spatial profiles (feature activity vs. depth) from temporal trends that would decouple automated MER localization from the clinical procedure and enhance functional localization in DBS surgery. We evaluated two methods of interpolation (standard vs. kernel) that generated spatial profiles from temporal trends. We compared interpolated spatial profiles to true spatial profiles that were calculated with depth windows, using correlation coefficient analysis. Excellent approximation of true spatial profiles is achieved by interpolation. Kernel-interpolated spatial profiles produced superior correlation coefficient values at optimal kernel widths (r = 0.932-0.940) compared to standard interpolation (r = 0.891). The choice of kernel function and kernel width resulted in trade-offs in smoothing and resolution. Interpolation of feature activity to create spatial profiles from temporal trends is accurate and can standardize and facilitate MER functional localization of subcortical structures. The methods are computationally efficient, enhancing localization without imposing additional constraints on the MER clinical procedure during DBS surgery. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

World trends from 2017

OpenAIRE

Janković Slobodan

2016-01-01

Issue of prognosis, analyses of future trends is companion to statecraft, political, economic and military planning. How we plan, what does IR says about scientific prognosis. Jankovic starts with this set of issues in order to pass into prognosis itself based on observable world trends. He claims that European Union has entered its climax comparing it foreign policy situation with that of war situation of Third Reich in 1943. Article is divided in five parts. After presenting and criticizing...

Generating Insights from Trends in Newborn Care Practices from Prospective Population-Based Studies: Examples from India, Bangladesh and Nepal.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sonya Crowe

Full Text Available Delivery of essential newborn care is key to reducing neonatal mortality rates, yet coverage of protective birth practices remains incomplete and variable, with or without skilled attendance. Evidence of changes over time in newborn care provision, disaggregated by care practice and delivery type, can be used by policymakers to review efforts to reduce mortality. We examine such trends in four areas using control arm trial data.We analysed data from the control arms of cluster randomised controlled trials in Bangladesh (27 553 births, eastern India (8 939, Dhanusha, Nepal (15 344 and Makwanpur, Nepal (6 765 over the period 2001-2011. For each trial, we calculated the observed proportion of attended births and the coverage of WHO essential newborn care practices by year, adjusted for clustering and stratification. To explore factors contributing to the observed trends, we then analysed expected trends due only to observed shifts in birth attendance, accounted for stratification, delivery type and statistically significant interaction terms, and examined disaggregated trends in care practice coverage by delivery type. Attended births increased over the study periods in all areas from very low rates, reaching a maximum of only 30% of deliveries. Newborn care practice trends showed marked heterogeneity within and between areas. Adjustment for stratification, birth attendance and interaction revealed that care practices could change in opposite directions over time and/or between delivery types - e.g. in Bangladesh hygienic cord-cutting and skin-to-skin contact fell in attended deliveries but not home deliveries, whereas in India birth attendant hand-washing rose for institutional deliveries but fell for home deliveries.Coverage of many essential newborn care practices is improving, albeit slowly and unevenly across sites and delivery type. Time trend analyses of birth patterns and essential newborn care practices can inform policy-makers about

Generating Insights from Trends in Newborn Care Practices from Prospective Population-Based Studies: Examples from India, Bangladesh and Nepal.

Science.gov (United States)

Crowe, Sonya; Prost, Audrey; Hossen, Munir; Azad, Kishwar; Kuddus, Abdul; Roy, Swati; Nair, Nirmala; Tripathy, Prasanta; Saville, Naomi; Sen, Aman; Sikorski, Catherine; Manandhar, Dharma; Costello, Anthony; Pagel, Christina

2015-01-01

Delivery of essential newborn care is key to reducing neonatal mortality rates, yet coverage of protective birth practices remains incomplete and variable, with or without skilled attendance. Evidence of changes over time in newborn care provision, disaggregated by care practice and delivery type, can be used by policymakers to review efforts to reduce mortality. We examine such trends in four areas using control arm trial data. We analysed data from the control arms of cluster randomised controlled trials in Bangladesh (27 553 births), eastern India (8 939), Dhanusha, Nepal (15 344) and Makwanpur, Nepal (6 765) over the period 2001-2011. For each trial, we calculated the observed proportion of attended births and the coverage of WHO essential newborn care practices by year, adjusted for clustering and stratification. To explore factors contributing to the observed trends, we then analysed expected trends due only to observed shifts in birth attendance, accounted for stratification, delivery type and statistically significant interaction terms, and examined disaggregated trends in care practice coverage by delivery type. Attended births increased over the study periods in all areas from very low rates, reaching a maximum of only 30% of deliveries. Newborn care practice trends showed marked heterogeneity within and between areas. Adjustment for stratification, birth attendance and interaction revealed that care practices could change in opposite directions over time and/or between delivery types - e.g. in Bangladesh hygienic cord-cutting and skin-to-skin contact fell in attended deliveries but not home deliveries, whereas in India birth attendant hand-washing rose for institutional deliveries but fell for home deliveries. Coverage of many essential newborn care practices is improving, albeit slowly and unevenly across sites and delivery type. Time trend analyses of birth patterns and essential newborn care practices can inform policy-makers about effective

Generating Insights from Trends in Newborn Care Practices from Prospective Population-Based Studies: Examples from India, Bangladesh and Nepal

Science.gov (United States)

Crowe, Sonya; Prost, Audrey; Hossen, Munir; Azad, Kishwar; Kuddus, Abdul; Roy, Swati; Nair, Nirmala; Tripathy, Prasanta; Saville, Naomi; Sen, Aman; Sikorski, Catherine; Manandhar, Dharma; Costello, Anthony; Pagel, Christina

2015-01-01

Background Delivery of essential newborn care is key to reducing neonatal mortality rates, yet coverage of protective birth practices remains incomplete and variable, with or without skilled attendance. Evidence of changes over time in newborn care provision, disaggregated by care practice and delivery type, can be used by policymakers to review efforts to reduce mortality. We examine such trends in four areas using control arm trial data. Methods and Findings We analysed data from the control arms of cluster randomised controlled trials in Bangladesh (27 553 births), eastern India (8 939), Dhanusha, Nepal (15 344) and Makwanpur, Nepal (6 765) over the period 2001–2011. For each trial, we calculated the observed proportion of attended births and the coverage of WHO essential newborn care practices by year, adjusted for clustering and stratification. To explore factors contributing to the observed trends, we then analysed expected trends due only to observed shifts in birth attendance, accounted for stratification, delivery type and statistically significant interaction terms, and examined disaggregated trends in care practice coverage by delivery type. Attended births increased over the study periods in all areas from very low rates, reaching a maximum of only 30% of deliveries. Newborn care practice trends showed marked heterogeneity within and between areas. Adjustment for stratification, birth attendance and interaction revealed that care practices could change in opposite directions over time and/or between delivery types – e.g. in Bangladesh hygienic cord-cutting and skin-to-skin contact fell in attended deliveries but not home deliveries, whereas in India birth attendant hand-washing rose for institutional deliveries but fell for home deliveries. Conclusions Coverage of many essential newborn care practices is improving, albeit slowly and unevenly across sites and delivery type. Time trend analyses of birth patterns and essential newborn care practices

Trends in Leisure Time Physical Activity among Young People in Finland, 1977-2007

Science.gov (United States)

Laakso, Lauri; Telama, Risto; Nupponen, Heimo; Rimpela, Arja; Pere, Lasse

2008-01-01

The decline in physical activity among young people has been discussed in the media during recent decades, although the scientific evidence for this has been scarce. The aim of this study was to investigate trends over 30 years in leisure time physical activity of Finnish boys and girls aged 12, 14, 16 and 18 years from 1977 to 2007. The data were…

A practical procedure for the selection of time-to-failure models based on the assessment of trends in maintenance data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Louit, D.M. [Komatsu Chile, Av. Americo Vespucio 0631, Quilicura, Santiago (Chile)], E-mail: rpascual@ing.puc.cl; Pascual, R. [Centro de Mineria, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Av. Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Santiago (Chile); Jardine, A.K.S. [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto, 5 King' s College Road, Toronto, Ont., M5S 3G8 (Canada)

2009-10-15

Many times, reliability studies rely on false premises such as independent and identically distributed time between failures assumption (renewal process). This can lead to erroneous model selection for the time to failure of a particular component or system, which can in turn lead to wrong conclusions and decisions. A strong statistical focus, a lack of a systematic approach and sometimes inadequate theoretical background seem to have made it difficult for maintenance analysts to adopt the necessary stage of data testing before the selection of a suitable model. In this paper, a framework for model selection to represent the failure process for a component or system is presented, based on a review of available trend tests. The paper focuses only on single-time-variable models and is primarily directed to analysts responsible for reliability analyses in an industrial maintenance environment. The model selection framework is directed towards the discrimination between the use of statistical distributions to represent the time to failure ('renewal approach'); and the use of stochastic point processes ('repairable systems approach'), when there may be the presence of system ageing or reliability growth. An illustrative example based on failure data from a fleet of backhoes is included.

Trends and advances in food analysis by real-time polymerase chain reaction.

Science.gov (United States)

Salihah, Nur Thaqifah; Hossain, Mohammad Mosharraf; Lubis, Hamadah; Ahmed, Minhaz Uddin

2016-05-01

Analyses to ensure food safety and quality are more relevant now because of rapid changes in the quantity, diversity and mobility of food. Food-contamination must be determined to maintain health and up-hold laws, as well as for ethical and cultural concerns. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), a rapid and inexpensive quantitative method to detect the presence of targeted DNA-segments in samples, helps in determining both accidental and intentional adulterations of foods by biological contaminants. This review presents recent developments in theory, techniques, and applications of RT-PCR in food analyses, RT-PCR addresses the limitations of traditional food analyses in terms of sensitivity, range of analytes, multiplexing ability, cost, time, and point-of-care applications. A range of targets, including species of plants or animals which are used as food ingredients, food-borne bacteria or viruses, genetically modified organisms, and allergens, even in highly processed foods can be identified by RT-PCR, even at very low concentrations. Microfluidic RT-PCR eliminates the separate sample-processing step to create opportunities for point-of-care analyses. We also cover the challenges related to using RT-PCR for food analyses, such as the need to further improve sample handling.

Time series analyses of hydrological parameter variations and their correlations at a coastal area in Busan, South Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Chung, Sang Yong; Senapathi, Venkatramanan; Sekar, Selvam; Kim, Tae Hyung

2018-02-01

Monitoring and time-series analysis of the hydrological parameters electrical conductivity (EC), water pressure, precipitation and tide were carried out, to understand the characteristics of the parameter variations and their correlations at a coastal area in Busan, South Korea. The monitoring data were collected at a sharp interface between freshwater and saline water at the depth of 25 m below ground. Two well-logging profiles showed that seawater intrusion has largely expanded (progressed inland), and has greatly affected the groundwater quality in a coastal aquifer of tuffaceous sedimentary rock over a 9-year period. According to the time series analyses, the periodograms of the hydrological parameters present very similar trends to the power spectral densities (PSD) of the hydrological parameters. Autocorrelation functions (ACF) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF) of the hydrological parameters were produced to evaluate their self-correlations. The ACFs of all hydrologic parameters showed very good correlation over the entire time lag, but the PACF revealed that the correlations were good only at time lag 1. Crosscorrelation functions (CCF) were used to evaluate the correlations between the hydrological parameters and the characteristics of seawater intrusion in the coastal aquifer system. The CCFs showed that EC had a close relationship with water pressure and precipitation rather than tide. The CCFs of water pressure with tide and precipitation were in inverse proportion, and the CCF of water pressure with precipitation was larger than that with tide.

Time Trends in Fast Food Consumption and Its Association with Obesity among Children in China.

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Hong Xue

Full Text Available Study the trends in Western fast food consumption (FFC among Chinese school-age children and the association between FFC and obesity using nationwide survey data.Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted to study the trends in FFC and the associations between FFC and weight status (overweight, obesity and body mass index (BMI z-score.Longitudinal data from families were collected in the 2004 and 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (covering nine provinces throughout China.The analysis included 2656 Chinese children aged 6 to 18 years (1542 and 1114 children in the 2004 and 2009 survey, respectively.FFC (reported having consumed Western fast food in the past three months has increased between 2004 and 2009, from 18.5% to 23.9% in those aged 6-18, and increased more rapidly among those aged 13-17, from 17.9% to 26.3%. The increase was significant in almost all groups by age, sex, family income, and residence. Our cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses did not detect a significant association between FFC and obesity/overweight or BMI z-score (e.g., for BMI z-score, boys: β = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.71, 0.75; girls: β = -0.14, 95% CI: -1.03, 0.75.FFC has increased in Chinese school-age children, especially in older children, boys, and those from low- and medium-income families, rural areas, and East China, but decreased among those from high-income families during 2004-2009. The data did not show a significant association between FFC and obesity.

Time Trends in Fast Food Consumption and Its Association with Obesity among Children in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Hong; Wu, Yang; Wang, Xiaoyu; Wang, Youfa

2016-01-01

Study the trends in Western fast food consumption (FFC) among Chinese school-age children and the association between FFC and obesity using nationwide survey data. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted to study the trends in FFC and the associations between FFC and weight status (overweight, obesity and body mass index (BMI) z-score). Longitudinal data from families were collected in the 2004 and 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (covering nine provinces throughout China). The analysis included 2656 Chinese children aged 6 to 18 years (1542 and 1114 children in the 2004 and 2009 survey, respectively). FFC (reported having consumed Western fast food in the past three months) has increased between 2004 and 2009, from 18.5% to 23.9% in those aged 6-18, and increased more rapidly among those aged 13-17, from 17.9% to 26.3%. The increase was significant in almost all groups by age, sex, family income, and residence. Our cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses did not detect a significant association between FFC and obesity/overweight or BMI z-score (e.g., for BMI z-score, boys: β = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.71, 0.75; girls: β = -0.14, 95% CI: -1.03, 0.75). FFC has increased in Chinese school-age children, especially in older children, boys, and those from low- and medium-income families, rural areas, and East China, but decreased among those from high-income families during 2004-2009. The data did not show a significant association between FFC and obesity.

Trends in mercury wet deposition and mercury air concentrations across the U.S. and Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Weiss-Penzias, Peter S.; Gay, David A.; Brigham, Mark E.; Parsons, Matthew T.; Gustin, Mae S.; ter Shure, Arnout

2016-01-01

This study examined the spatial and temporal trends of mercury (Hg) in wet deposition and air concentrations in the United States (U.S.) and Canada between 1997 and 2013. Data were obtained from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) and Environment Canada monitoring networks, and other sources. Of the 19 sites with data records from 1997–2013, 53% had significant negative trends in Hg concentration in wet deposition, while no sites had significant positive trends, which is in general agreement with earlier studies that considered NADP data up until about 2010. However, for the time period 2007–2013 (71 sites), 17% and 13% of the sites had significant positive and negative trends, respectively, and for the time period 2008–2013 (81 sites) 30% and 6% of the sites had significant positive and negative trends, respectively. Non-significant positive tendencies were also widespread. Regional trend analyses revealed significant positive trends in Hg concentration in the Rocky Mountains, Plains, and Upper Midwest regions for the recent time periods in addition to significant positive trends in Hg deposition for the continent as a whole. Sulfate concentration trends in wet deposition were negative in all regions, suggesting a lower importance of local Hg sources. The trend in gaseous elemental Hg from short-term datasets merged as one continuous record was broadly consistent with trends in Hg concentration in wet deposition, with the early time period (1998–2007) producing a significantly negative trend (− 1.5 ± 0.2% year− 1) and the recent time period (2008–2013) displaying a flat slope (− 0.3 ± 0.1% year− 1, not significant). The observed shift to more positive or less negative trends in Hg wet deposition primarily seen in the Central-Western regions is consistent with the effects of rising Hg emissions from regions outside the U.S. and Canada and the influence of long-range transport in the free troposphere.

Gender Differences Time Trends for Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components among Tehranian Children and Adolescents

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Maryam Barzin

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Aims. To investigate the trend of metabolic syndrome and its components in Tehran children and adolescents during a median followup of 6.6 years. Methods. Data from 1999–2001 (phase I, 2002–2005 (phase II, and 2006–2008 (phase III of the Tehran, Lipid and Glucose Study were analyzed (=5439; age 6–18 years for the trend of metabolic syndrome (MetS and its components. General estimation equation (GEE models were used to analyze this correlated data. Results. The crude prevalence of MetS for boys at baseline was 13.2%, which increased to 16.4% in the third phase. In girls, the prevalence of Mets decreased from 11.8% at baseline to 6% during followup. The odd ratios (OR of obesity over the whole study period were raised in both sexes. The OR of abdominal obesity increased significantly in boys, but no change was observed in girls. No significant OR was observed in boys, while OR for MetS was shown to have a decreasing trend in girls during the followup. In the three time points, the ORs of MetS decreased significantly in girls but no significant difference was observed in boys. Conclusion. Inspite of increasing trend for obesity in both sexes, the trend of MetS decreased in girls and was relatively stable in boys, in Tehranian children, and adolescents.

Measuring trends in age at first sex and age at marriage in Manicaland, Zimbabwe.

Science.gov (United States)

Cremin, I; Mushati, P; Hallett, T; Mupambireyi, Z; Nyamukapa, C; Garnett, G P; Gregson, S

2009-04-01

To identify reporting biases and to determine the influence of inconsistent reporting on observed trends in the timing of age at first sex and age at marriage. Longitudinal data from three rounds of a population-based cohort in eastern Zimbabwe were analysed. Reports of age at first sex and age at marriage from 6837 individuals attending multiple rounds were classified according to consistency. Survival analysis was used to identify trends in the timing of first sex and marriage. In this population, women initiate sex and enter marriage at younger ages than men but spend much less time between first sex and marriage. Among those surveyed between 1998 and 2005, median ages at first sex and first marriage were 18.5 years and 21.4 years for men and 18.2 years and 18.5 years, respectively, for women aged 15-54 years. High levels of reports of both age at first sex and age at marriage among those attending multiple surveys were found to be unreliable. Excluding reports identified as unreliable from these analyses did not alter the observed trends in either age at first sex or age at marriage. Tracing birth cohorts as they aged revealed reporting biases, particularly among the youngest cohorts. Comparisons by birth cohorts, which span a period of >40 years, indicate that median age at first sex has remained constant over time for women but has declined gradually for men. Although many reports of age at first sex and age at marriage were found to be unreliable, inclusion of such reports did not result in artificial generation or suppression of trends.

Wairarapa Valley groundwater : residence time, flow pattern, and hydrochemistry trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morgenstern, U.

2005-01-01

The Wairarapa groundwater system has a complicated hydrogeological setting as it evolved from sea level changes, tectonic activity, and geomorphic process. Due to increasing groundwater demand a better understanding of the groundwater resources is required to help achieve effective management and sustainable use. In addition to previous 'classical' hydrogeology studies, this report represents the first stage of a comprehensive approach using age dating and chemistry time trends for understanding the Wairarapa groundwater system. The methodology of groundwater age dating and mixing models is described in Appendix 1. Historic tritium data were evaluated, and combined with new tritium and CFC/SF 6 data to allow for robust age dating. (author). 14 refs., 30 figs

Time trends and epidemiological patterns of perinatal lamb mortality in Norway.

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Holmøy, Ingrid Hunter; Waage, Steinar

2015-09-30

Perinatal mortality is a major cause of loss in the sheep industry. Our aim was to explore time trends in crude population stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates in Norway. We used data on 6,435,715 lambs from flocks enrolled in the Norwegian Sheep Recording System (NSRS) from 2000 through 2010 for descriptive analysis of trends. Longitudinal patterns of mortality rates were compared for lambs within different levels of variables suspected to be associated with perinatal loss. There was an approximately linear increase in the annual proportion of stillborn lambs during the study period, from 3.3 % in 2000 to 4.7 % in 2010. In the same time period, average litter size of ewes in NSRS flocks increased from 2.00 to 2.19. However, a steady rise in stillbirth rate was observed within each litter size group, suggesting a gradually increasing impact on stillbirth risk of other, yet unidentified, factors. Average flock size increased during the study period. The highest stillbirth rates were found in the largest and smallest flocks. Early neonatal mortality rates (0-5 days of life) varied from year to year (minimum 2.2 %, maximum 3.2 %) and were invariably higher among triplets and quadruplets than among singletons and twins. Annual fluctuations were parallel within the various litter sizes. A significant overall decreasing trend was present within all litter sizes with the exception of singletons. Weather data for the prime lambing months (April and May) 2000-2010 indicated a relationship between low temperatures and high neonatal mortality rates. At the flock level, there was a significant positive correlation between stillbirths and early neonatal mortality rates (r = 0.13), between stillbirth rates in two consecutive years (r = 0.43) and between early neonatal mortality rates in two consecutive years (r = 0.40). The substantial increase in ovine stillbirth rate in recent years in Norway was to some extent related to a corresponding increase in the

Time Series Analysis of Onchocerciasis Data from Mexico: A Trend towards Elimination

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Pérez-Rodríguez, Miguel A.; Adeleke, Monsuru A.; Orozco-Algarra, María E.; Arrendondo-Jiménez, Juan I.; Guo, Xianwu

2013-01-01

Background In Latin America, there are 13 geographically isolated endemic foci distributed among Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil and Ecuador. The communities of the three endemic foci found within Mexico have been receiving ivermectin treatment since 1989. In this study, we predicted the trend of occurrence of cases in Mexico by applying time series analysis to monthly onchocerciasis data reported by the Mexican Secretariat of Health between 1988 and 2011 using the software R. Results A total of 15,584 cases were reported in Mexico from 1988 to 2011. The data of onchocerciasis cases are mainly from the main endemic foci of Chiapas and Oaxaca. The last case in Oaxaca was reported in 1998, but new cases were reported in the Chiapas foci up to 2011. Time series analysis performed for the foci in Mexico showed a decreasing trend of the disease over time. The best-fitted models with the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) were Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, which were used to predict the tendency of onchocerciasis cases for two years ahead. According to the ARIMA models predictions, the cases in very low number (below 1) are expected for the disease between 2012 and 2013 in Chiapas, the last endemic region in Mexico. Conclusion The endemic regions of Mexico evolved from high onchocerciasis-endemic states to the interruption of transmission due to the strategies followed by the MSH, based on treatment with ivermectin. The extremely low level of expected cases as predicted by ARIMA models for the next two years suggest that the onchocerciasis is being eliminated in Mexico. To our knowledge, it is the first study utilizing time series for predicting case dynamics of onchocerciasis, which could be used as a benchmark during monitoring and post-treatment surveillance. PMID:23459370

Trajectory data analyses for pedestrian space-time activity study.

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Qi, Feng; Du, Fei

2013-02-25

It is well recognized that human movement in the spatial and temporal dimensions has direct influence on disease transmission(1-3). An infectious disease typically spreads via contact between infected and susceptible individuals in their overlapped activity spaces. Therefore, daily mobility-activity information can be used as an indicator to measure exposures to risk factors of infection. However, a major difficulty and thus the reason for paucity of studies of infectious disease transmission at the micro scale arise from the lack of detailed individual mobility data. Previously in transportation and tourism research detailed space-time activity data often relied on the time-space diary technique, which requires subjects to actively record their activities in time and space. This is highly demanding for the participants and collaboration from the participants greatly affects the quality of data(4). Modern technologies such as GPS and mobile communications have made possible the automatic collection of trajectory data. The data collected, however, is not ideal for modeling human space-time activities, limited by the accuracies of existing devices. There is also no readily available tool for efficient processing of the data for human behavior study. We present here a suite of methods and an integrated ArcGIS desktop-based visual interface for the pre-processing and spatiotemporal analyses of trajectory data. We provide examples of how such processing may be used to model human space-time activities, especially with error-rich pedestrian trajectory data, that could be useful in public health studies such as infectious disease transmission modeling. The procedure presented includes pre-processing, trajectory segmentation, activity space characterization, density estimation and visualization, and a few other exploratory analysis methods. Pre-processing is the cleaning of noisy raw trajectory data. We introduce an interactive visual pre-processing interface as well as an

Averaging Gone Wrong: Using Time-Aware Analyses to Better Understand Behavior

OpenAIRE

Barbosa, Samuel; Cosley, Dan; Sharma, Amit; Cesar-Jr, Roberto M.

2016-01-01

Online communities provide a fertile ground for analyzing people's behavior and improving our understanding of social processes. Because both people and communities change over time, we argue that analyses of these communities that take time into account will lead to deeper and more accurate results. Using Reddit as an example, we study the evolution of users based on comment and submission data from 2007 to 2014. Even using one of the simplest temporal differences between users---yearly coho...

Performing dynamic time history analyses by extension of the response spectrum method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hulbert, G.M.

1983-01-01

A method is presented to calculate the dynamic time history response of finite-element models using results from response spectrum analyses. The proposed modified time history method does not represent a new mathamatical approach to dynamic analysis but suggests a more efficient ordering of the analytical equations and procedures. The modified time history method is considerably faster and less expensive to use than normal time hisory methods. This paper presents the theory and implementation of the modified time history approach along with comparisons of the modified and normal time history methods for a prototypic seismic piping design problem

Mapping and Evaluation of NDVI Trends from Synthetic Time Series Obtained by Blending Landsat and MODIS Data around a Coalfield on the Loess Plateau

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Kun Wang

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The increasingly intensive and extensive coal mining activities on the Loess Plateau pose a threat to the fragile local ecosystems. Quantifying the effects of coal mining activities on environmental conditions is of great interest for restoring and managing the local ecosystems and resources. This paper generates dense NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index time series between 2000 and 2011 at a spatial resolution of 30 m by blending Landsat and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data using the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM and further evaluates its capability for mapping vegetation trends around a typical coalfield on the Loss Plateau. Synthetic NDVI images were generated using (1 STARFM-generated NIR (near infrared and red band reflectance data (scheme 1 and (2 Landsat and MODIS NDVI images directly as inputs for STARFM (scheme 2. By comparing the synthetic NDVI images with the corresponding Landsat NDVI, we found that scheme 2 consistently generated better results (0.70 < R2 < 0.76 than scheme 1 (0.56 < R2 < 0.70 in this study area. Trend analysis was then performed with the synthetic dense NDVI time series and the annual maximum NDVI (NDVImax time series. The accuracy of these trends was evaluated by comparing to those from the corresponding MODIS time series, and it was concluded that both the trends from synthetic/MODIS NDVI dense time series and synthetic/MODIS NDVImax time series (2000–2011 were highly consistent. Compared to trends from MODIS time series, trends from synthetic time series are better able to capture fine scale vegetation changes. STARFM-generated synthetic NDVI time series could be used to quantify the effects of mining activities on vegetation, but the test areas should be selected with caution, as the trends derived from synthetic and MODIS time series may be significantly different in some areas.

Analysis of the development trend of China’s business administration based on time series

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Jiang Rui

2016-01-01

Full Text Available On the general direction of the economic system, China is in a crucial period of the establishment of the modern enterprise system and reform of the macroeconomic system, and a lot of high-quality business administration talents are required to make China’s economy be stably developed. This paper carries out time series analysis of the development situation of China’s business administration major: on the whole, the society currently presents an upward trend on the demand for the business administration talents. With the gradually increasing demand for the business administration talents, various colleges and universities also set up the business administration major to train a large number of administration talents, thus leading to an upward trend for the academic focus on business administration.

Trends in Pap Testing Over Time for Women With and Without Chronic Disability.

Science.gov (United States)

Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kurtz, Stephen G; Rao, Sowmya R

2016-02-01

Data from 20 years ago--shortly after passage of the Americans with Disabilities Act--showed that women with significant mobility disability had 40% lower Pap test rates than other women. To examine whether disability disparities in Pap test rates have diminished over time, this study analyzed National Health Interview Survey responses from selected years between 1998 and 2010 from women aged 21-65 years without histories of cervical cancer or hysterectomy. Seven chronic disability types were identified using self-reported functional impairments or participation limitations. Self-reported Pap testing within the previous 3 years was studied. Bivariable analyses and multivariable logistic regression analyses controlling for sociodemographic variables were conducted in 2014. Rates of all chronic disability types increased over time. Pap test rates remained relatively constant over time for all women, holding around 84%-87%. Bivariable analyses found statistically significantly lower rates of Pap testing for women with disability compared with nondisabled women. Multivariable analyses failed to find consistent evidence of lower Pap test rates among women across disability types compared with nondisabled women. In 2010, the AOR for reporting Pap testing for women noting the most severe movement difficulty compared with nondisabled women was 0.35 (95% CI=0.15, 0.79). However, the AOR for this disability type varied over time. Little has changed over time in Pap test rates for all women. Women with certain disabilities continue to experience disparities compared with nondisabled women in receipt of this important screening test. Copyright © 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Childbearing trends in Iceland, 1982-2013: Fertility timing, quantum, and gender preferences for children in a Nordic context

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Ari Klængur Jónsson

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Background: Iceland is one of the most gender-equal countries in the world, but one that does not seem to have experienced the same fertility fluctuations as most other countries, following the enhanced role of women in society. Objective: In this study we examine the childbearing trends in Iceland during 1982-2013 by analysing the progressions to parities one, two, and three. We also investigate whether there is evidence of gender preferences for children among Icelandic parents. Methods: Official individual longitudinal register data is used, covering the total female population born in Iceland between 1941 and 1997. The data is analysed by means of event history analysis. Results: We find evidence of tendencies to postpone motherhood during the period, with increases in fertility for women in their 30s and 40s. The propensity to have a second and a third child has not declined; on the contrary, these birth intensities have increased since the mid-1980s. Estimates suggest that Icelandic parents prefer to have daughters. Conclusions: During a period of increased educational attainment and postponed family formation, the resilience of Icelandic fertility is intriguing. Contribution: The study provides the first comprehensive overview of fertility trends in Iceland.

Reducing preoperative fasting time: A trend based on evidence.

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de Aguilar-Nascimento, José Eduardo; Dock-Nascimento, Diana Borges

2010-03-27

Preoperative fasting is mandatory before anesthesia to reduce the risk of aspiration. However, the prescribed 6-8 h of fasting is usually prolonged to 12-16 h for various reasons. Prolonged fasting triggers a metabolic response that precipitates gluconeogenesis and increases the organic response to trauma. Various randomized trials and meta-analyses have consistently shown that is safe to reduce the preoperative fasting time with a carbohydrate-rich drink up to 2 h before surgery. Benefits related to this shorter preoperative fasting include the reduction of postoperative gastrointestinal discomfort and insulin resistance. New formulas containing amino acids such as glutamine and other peptides are being studied and are promising candidates to be used to reduce preoperative fasting time.

Time-Series Analysis of Remotely-Sensed SeaWiFS Chlorophyll in River-Influenced Coastal Regions

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Acker, James G.; McMahon, Erin; Shen, Suhung; Hearty, Thomas; Casey, Nancy

2009-01-01

The availability of a nearly-continuous record of remotely-sensed chlorophyll a data (chl a) from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) mission, now longer than ten years, enables examination of time-series trends for multiple global locations. Innovative data analysis technology available on the World Wide Web facilitates such analyses. In coastal regions influenced by river outflows, chl a is not always indicative of actual trends in phytoplankton chlorophyll due to the interference of colored dissolved organic matter and suspended sediments; significant chl a timeseries trends for coastal regions influenced by river outflows may nonetheless be indicative of important alterations of the hydrologic and coastal environment. Chl a time-series analysis of nine marine regions influenced by river outflows demonstrates the simplicity and usefulness of this technique. The analyses indicate that coastal time-series are significantly influenced by unusual flood events. Major river systems in regions with relatively low human impact did not exhibit significant trends. Most river systems with demonstrated human impact exhibited significant negative trends, with the noteworthy exception of the Pearl River in China, which has a positive trend.

Investigating the impact of the English health inequalities strategy: time trend analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Barr, Ben; Higgerson, James; Whitehead, Margaret

2017-07-26

Objective  To investigate whether the English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical health inequalities, compared with trends before and after the strategy. Design  Time trend analysis. Setting  Two groups of lower tier local authorities in England. The most deprived, bottom fifth and the rest of England. Intervention  The English health inequalities strategy-a cross government strategy implemented between 1997 and 2010 to reduce health inequalities in England. Trends in geographical health inequalities were assessed before (1983-2003), during (2004-12), and after (2013-15) the strategy using segmented linear regression. Main outcome measure  Geographical health inequalities measured as the relative and absolute differences in male and female life expectancy at birth between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country. Results  Before the strategy the gap in male and female life expectancy between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country increased at a rate of 0.57 months each year (95% confidence interval 0.40 to 0.74 months) and 0.30 months each year (0.12 to 0.48 months). During the strategy period this trend reversed and the gap in life expectancy for men reduced by 0.91 months each year (0.54 to 1.27 months) and for women by 0.50 months each year (0.15 to 0.86 months). Since the end of the strategy period the inequality gap has increased again at a rate of 0.68 months each year (-0.20 to 1.56 months) for men and 0.31 months each year (-0.26 to 0.88) for women. By 2012 the gap in male life expectancy was 1.2 years smaller (95% confidence interval 0.8 to 1.5 years smaller) and the gap in female life expectancy was 0.6 years smaller (0.3 to 1.0 years smaller) than it would have been if the trends in inequalities before the strategy had continued. Conclusion  The English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical inequalities

The Vegetation Trends and Drivers in Beijing-Tianjing Region from 1982 TO 2013 Based on Time Series Gimms NDVI3g

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, S.; Tian, H.; Wang, X.; Li, H.; He, Y.

2018-04-01

Vegetation plays a leading role in ecosystems. Plant communities are the main components of ecosystems. Green plants in ecosystems are the primary producers, and they provide the living organic matter for the survival of other organisms. The dynamics of most landscapes are driven by both natural processes and human activities. In this study, the growing season GIMMS NDVI3g and climatic data were used to analyse the vegetation trends and drivers in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1982 to 2013. Result shows that, the vegetation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows overall restoration and partial degradation trend. The significant restoration region accounts for 61.5 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, while the significant degradation region accounts for 2.1 %. The dominant climatic factor for time series NDVI were analyzed using the multi-linear regression model. Vegetation growth in 17.9 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is dominated by temperature, 35.5 % is dominated by precipitation, and 11.68 % is dominated by solar radiance. Human activities play important role for vegetation restoration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, where the large scale forest restoration programs are the main human activities, such as the three-north shelterbelt construction project, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei sandstorm source control project and grain for green projects.

Cone-Beam Computed Tomography–Guided Positioning of Laryngeal Cancer Patients with Large Interfraction Time Trends in Setup and Nonrigid Anatomy Variations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gangsaas, Anne; Astreinidou, Eleftheria; Quint, Sandra; Levendag, Peter C.; Heijmen, Ben

2013-01-01

Purpose: To investigate interfraction setup variations of the primary tumor, elective nodes, and vertebrae in laryngeal cancer patients and to validate protocols for cone beam computed tomography (CBCT)-guided correction. Methods and Materials: For 30 patients, CBCT-measured displacements in fractionated treatments were used to investigate population setup errors and to simulate residual setup errors for the no action level (NAL) offline protocol, the extended NAL (eNAL) protocol, and daily CBCT acquisition with online analysis and repositioning. Results: Without corrections, 12 of 26 patients treated with radical radiation therapy would have experienced a gradual change (time trend) in primary tumor setup ≥4 mm in the craniocaudal (CC) direction during the fractionated treatment (11/12 in caudal direction, maximum 11 mm). Due to these trends, correction of primary tumor displacements with NAL resulted in large residual CC errors (required margin 6.7 mm). With the weekly correction vector adjustments in eNAL, the trends could be largely compensated (CC margin 3.5 mm). Correlation between movements of the primary and nodal clinical target volumes (CTVs) in the CC direction was poor (r 2 =0.15). Therefore, even with online setup corrections of the primary CTV, the required CC margin for the nodal CTV was as large as 6.8 mm. Also for the vertebrae, large time trends were observed for some patients. Because of poor CC correlation (r 2 =0.19) between displacements of the primary CTV and the vertebrae, even with daily online repositioning of the vertebrae, the required CC margin around the primary CTV was 6.9 mm. Conclusions: Laryngeal cancer patients showed substantial interfraction setup variations, including large time trends, and poor CC correlation between primary tumor displacements and motion of the nodes and vertebrae (internal tumor motion). These trends and nonrigid anatomy variations have to be considered in the choice of setup verification protocol and

Time trends of esophageal and gastric cancer mortality in China, 1991?2009: an age-period-cohort analysis

OpenAIRE

Li, Mengmeng; Wan, Xia; Wang, Yanhong; Sun, Yuanyuan; Yang, Gonghuan; Wang, Li

2017-01-01

Esophageal and gastric cancers share some risk factors. This study aimed to compare the long-term trends in mortality rates of esophageal and gastric cancers in China to provide evidence for cancer prevention and control. Mortality data were derived from 103 continuous points of the Disease Surveillance Points system during 1991?2009, stratified by gender and urban-rural locations. Age-period-cohort models were used to disentangle the time trends of esophageal and gastric cancer mortality. Th...

Time Trends in Fast Food Consumption and Its Association with Obesity among Children in China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xiaoyu; Wang, Youfa

2016-01-01

Objective Study the trends in Western fast food consumption (FFC) among Chinese school-age children and the association between FFC and obesity using nationwide survey data. Design Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted to study the trends in FFC and the associations between FFC and weight status (overweight, obesity and body mass index (BMI) z-score). Setting Longitudinal data from families were collected in the 2004 and 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (covering nine provinces throughout China). Subjects The analysis included 2656 Chinese children aged 6 to 18 years (1542 and 1114 children in the 2004 and 2009 survey, respectively). Results FFC (reported having consumed Western fast food in the past three months) has increased between 2004 and 2009, from 18.5% to 23.9% in those aged 6–18, and increased more rapidly among those aged 13–17, from 17.9% to 26.3%. The increase was significant in almost all groups by age, sex, family income, and residence. Our cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses did not detect a significant association between FFC and obesity/overweight or BMI z-score (e.g., for BMI z-score, boys: β = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.71, 0.75; girls: β = -0.14, 95% CI: -1.03, 0.75). Conclusions FFC has increased in Chinese school-age children, especially in older children, boys, and those from low- and medium-income families, rural areas, and East China, but decreased among those from high-income families during 2004–2009. The data did not show a significant association between FFC and obesity. PMID:26974536

Greater sage-grouse population trends across Wyoming

Science.gov (United States)

Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Monroe, Adrian

2018-01-01

The scale at which analyses are performed can have an effect on model results and often one scale does not accurately describe the ecological phenomena of interest (e.g., population trends) for wide-ranging species: yet, most ecological studies are performed at a single, arbitrary scale. To best determine local and regional trends for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming, USA, we modeled density-independent and -dependent population growth across multiple spatial scales relevant to management and conservation (Core Areas [habitat encompassing approximately 83% of the sage-grouse population on ∼24% of surface area in Wyoming], local Working Groups [7 regional areas for which groups of local experts are tasked with implementing Wyoming's statewide sage-grouse conservation plan at the local level], Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) by Working Groups, and Core Areas by Working Groups). Our goal was to determine the influence of fine-scale population trends (Core Areas) on larger-scale populations (Working Group Areas). We modeled the natural log of change in population size ( peak M lek counts) by time to calculate the finite rate of population growth (λ) for each population of interest from 1993 to 2015. We found that in general when Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) was investigated by Working Group Area, the 2 populations trended similarly and agreed with the overall trend of the Working Group Area. However, at the finer scale where Core Areas were analyzed separately, Core Areas within the same Working Group Area often trended differently and a few large Core Areas could influence the overall Working Group Area trend and mask trends occurring in smaller Core Areas. Relatively close fine-scale populations of sage-grouse can trend differently, indicating that large-scale trends may not accurately depict what is occurring across the landscape (e.g., local effects of gas and oil fields may be masked by increasing

Trend Analysis of Pahang River Using Non-Parametric Analysis: Mann Kendalls Trend Test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nur Hishaam Sulaiman; Mohd Khairul Amri Kamarudin; Mohd Khairul Amri Kamarudin; Ahmad Dasuki Mustafa; Muhammad Azizi Amran; Fazureen Azaman; Ismail Zainal Abidin; Norsyuhada Hairoma

2015-01-01

Flood is common in Pahang especially during northeast monsoon season from November to February. Three river cross station: Lubuk Paku, Sg. Yap and Temerloh were selected as area of this study. The stream flow and water level data were gathered from DID record. Data set for this study were analysed by using non-parametric analysis, Mann-Kendall Trend Test. The results that obtained from stream flow and water level analysis indicate that there are positively significant trend for Lubuk Paku (0.001) and Sg. Yap (<0.0001) from 1972-2011 with the p-value < 0.05. Temerloh (0.178) data from 1963-2011 recorded no trend for stream flow parameter but negative trend for water level parameter. Hydrological pattern and trend are extremely affected by outside factors such as north east monsoon season that occurred in South China Sea and affected Pahang during November to March. There are other factors such as development and management of the areas which can be considered as factors affected the data and results. Hydrological Pattern is important to indicate the river trend such as stream flow and water level. It can be used as flood mitigation by local authorities. (author)

Reducing preoperative fasting time: A trend based on evidence

OpenAIRE

de Aguilar-Nascimento, José Eduardo; Dock-Nascimento, Diana Borges

2010-01-01

Preoperative fasting is mandatory before anesthesia to reduce the risk of aspiration. However, the prescribed 6-8 h of fasting is usually prolonged to 12-16 h for various reasons. Prolonged fasting triggers a metabolic response that precipitates gluconeogenesis and increases the organic response to trauma. Various randomized trials and meta-analyses have consistently shown that is safe to reduce the preoperative fasting time with a carbohydrate-rich drink up to 2 h before surgery. Benefits re...

Hydro-meteorological trends in the Gidabo catchment of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin of Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Belihu, Mamuye; Abate, Brook; Tekleab, Sirak; Bewket, Woldeamlak

2018-04-01

The global and regional variability and changes of climate and stream flows are likely to have significant influence on water resource availability. The magnitude and impacts of climate variability and change differs spatially and temporally. This study examines the long term hydroclimatic changes, analyses of the hydro-climate variability and detect whether there exist significant trend or not in the Gidabo catchment, rift valley lakes basin of Ethiopia. Precipitation, temperature and stream flow time series data were used in monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. The precipitation and temperature data span is between 1982 and 2014 and that of stream flow is between 1976 and 2006. To detect trends the analysis were done by using Mann Kendal (MK), Sen's graphical method and to detect change point using the Pettit test. The comparison of trend analysis between MK trend test and Sen graphical method results depict mostly similar pattern. The annual rainfall trends exhibited a significant decrease by about 12 mm per year in the upstream, which is largely driven by the significant decrease in the peak season rainfall. The Pettit test revealed that the years 1997 and 2007 were the change points. It is noted that the rise of temperature over a catchment might have decreased the availability of soil moisture which resulted in less runoff. The temperature analyses also revealed that the catchment was getting warmer; particularly in the upstream. The minimum temperature trend showed a significant increase about 0.08°c per annum. There is generally a decreasing trend in stream flow. The monthly stream flow also exhibited a decreasing trend in February, March and September. The decline in annual and seasonal rainfall and the increase in temperature lead to more evaporation and directly affecting the stream flow negatively. This trend compounded with the growth of population and increasing demand for irrigation water exacerbates the competing demand for water resources. It

Trends in popularity of some morphological traits of purebred dogs in Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Teng, Kendy T; McGreevy, Paul D; Toribio, Jenny-Ann L M L; Dhand, Navneet K

2016-01-01

The morphology of dogs can provide information about their predisposition to some disorders. For example, larger breeds are predisposed to hip dysplasia and many neoplastic diseases. Therefore, longitudinal trends in popularity of dog morphology can reveal potential disease pervasiveness in the future. There have been reports on the popularity of particular breeds and behavioural traits but trends in the morphological traits of preferred breeds have not been studied. This study investigated trends in the height, dog size and head shape (cephalic index) of Australian purebred dogs. One hundred eighty-one breeds derived from Australian National Kennel Council (ANKC) registration statistics from 1986 to 2013 were analysed. Weighted regression analyses were conducted to examine trends in the traits by using them as outcome variables, with year as the explanatory variable and numbers of registered dogs as weights. Linear regression investigated dog height and cephalic index (skull width/skull length), and multinomial logistic regression studied dog size. The total number of ANKC registration had decreased gradually from 95,792 in 1986 to 66,902 in 2013. Both weighted minimal height (p = 0.014) and weighted maximal height (p popular over time. Mean cephalic index has increased, which indicates that Australians have gradually favoured breeds with shorter and wider heads (brachycephalic). These significant trends indicate that the dog morphological traits reported here may potentially influence how people select companion dogs in Australia and provide valuable predictive information on the pervasiveness of diseases in dogs.

Characterization and adequacy of the use of radiotherapy and its trend in time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palacios Eito, Amalia; Cabezas, Sonia García; Font Ugalde, Pilar; Rivin del Campo, Eleonor; Otero Romero, Ana; Mar Pérez Martín, María del; Roldán Arjona, Juan Manuel; Martínez Paredes, María

2013-01-01

Background and purpose: Characterization of radiotherapy activity and its trend over time. Gathering of parameters for future planning of our resources, applicable to similar population areas. Performing a clinical audit of appropriate use of radiotherapy. Material and methods: Analysis of 9782 patients treated between 1998 and 2008. Descriptive statistics of pathologies and social/demographic characteristics. Intention of treatment. The rate of radiotherapy utilization was estimated and compared with those considered optimal. Rate of reirradiation. Results: The average global rate of radiotherapy utilization for the period was 32.7%. It increased by 23% between 1998 and 2008, while the population of the area rose by 1.04%, equaling an average 1.13 irradiations/1000 inhabitants/year. Radiation treatment has increased by 13.6, 2.3, 1.6 and 1.06 times in patients with prostate, breast, rectal and lung cancer, respectively. Eight percent of radiotherapy treatments involve concurrent chemotherapy. The proportion of treatments with palliative intent was 18.2%. The overall underutilization of radiation therapy in our environment was an estimated 13.4%. Conclusions: The grade of adequacy of radiation rates in relation with scientific evidence was globally considered suboptimal, especially in lung cancer. There was an upward trend of irradiation in breast and prostate cancer, tending toward rates considered optimal

Tuberculosis in Mexico and the USA, Comparison of Trends Over Time 1990-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Hernández-Garduño, Eduardo; Mendoza-Damián, Fabiola; Garduño-Alanís, Adriana; Ayón-Garibaldo, Salvador

2015-07-01

The aim was to compare tuberculosis trends in Mexico and United States and to evaluate Mexican diagnostic methods and contact investigation. Retrospective comparative study of tuberculosis cases and incidence rates between both countries (1990-2010). Diagnostic methods and contact investigations were also evaluated for Mexico. Estimates were obtained from official websites. In Mexico, no clear trend was found over time for cases. Pulmonary (PTB) and all forms of tuberculosis (AFTB) incidence decreased 2.0% annually. There was a negative correlation between the mean contacts examined per case and AFTB incidence (r(2)=-0.44, p=0.01) with a 33% reduction in AFTB incidence. In United States, PTB and AFTB cases have been decreasing 6.0% and 5.6% annually, respectively. The incidence decreased 7.3% and 6.8%, respectively. The incidence of tuberculosis in Mexico is decreasing slightly over time at 2% annually. In the United States, cases and incidence rates have been decreasing at a higher rate (5% to 7% annually). The inverse association between number of contacts examined per state and incidence rates in Mexico underscore the importance of reinforcing and improving contact investigations with the likely translation of a decrease of TB incidence at a higher rate.

Trends in Surface-Water Quality at Selected Ambient-Monitoring Network Stations in Kentucky, 1979-2004

Science.gov (United States)

Crain, Angela S.; Martin, Gary R.

2009-01-01

Increasingly complex water-management decisions require water-quality monitoring programs that provide data for multiple purposes, including trend analyses, to detect improvement or deterioration in water quality with time. Understanding surface-water-quality trends assists resource managers in identifying emerging water-quality concerns, planning remediation efforts, and evaluating the effectiveness of the remediation. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet-Kentucky Division of Water, to analyze and summarize long-term water-quality trends of selected properties and water-quality constituents in selected streams in Kentucky's ambient stream water-quality monitoring network. Trends in surface-water quality for 15 properties and water-quality constituents were analyzed at 37 stations with drainage basins ranging in size from 62 to 6,431 square miles. Analyses of selected physical properties (temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen, hardness, and suspended solids), for major ions (chloride and sulfate), for selected metals (iron and manganese), for nutrients (total phosphorus, total nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate), and for fecal coliform were compiled from the Commonwealth's ambient water-quality monitoring network. Trend analyses were completed using the S-Plus statistical software program S-Estimate Trend (S-ESTREND), which detects trends in water-quality data. The trend-detection techniques supplied by this software include the Seasonal Kendall nonparametric methods for use with uncensored data or data censored with only one reporting limit and the Tobit-regression parametric method for use with data censored with multiple reporting limits. One of these tests was selected for each property and water-quality constituent and applied to all station records so that results of the trend procedure could be compared among

Trend Analyses of Users of a Syringe Exchange Program in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: 1999-2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Maurer, Laurie A; Bass, Sarah Bauerle; Ye, Du; Benitez, José; Mazzella, Silvana; Krafty, Robert

2016-12-01

This study examines trends of injection drug users' (IDUs) use of a Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, syringe exchange program (SEP) from 1999 to 2014, including changes in demographics, drug use, substance abuse treatment, geographic indicators, and SEP use. Prevention Point Philadelphia's SEP registration data were analyzed using linear regression, Pearson's Chi square, and t-tests. Over time new SEP registrants have become younger, more racially diverse, and geographically more concentrated in specific areas of the city, corresponding to urban demographic shifts. The number of new registrants per year has decreased, however syringes exchanged have increased. Gentrification, cultural norms, and changes in risk perception are believed to have contributed to the changes in SEP registration. Demographic changes indicate outreach strategies for IDUs may need adjusting to address unique barriers for younger, more racially diverse users. Implications for SEPs are discussed, including policy and continued ability to address current public health threats.

Trending analysis of precursor events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watanabe, Norio

1998-01-01

The Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program of United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S.NRC) identifies and categorizes operational events at nuclear power plants in terms of the potential for core damage. The ASP analysis has been performed on yearly basis and the results have been published in the annual reports. This paper describes the trends in initiating events and dominant sequences for 459 precursors identified in the ASP Program during the 1969-94 period and also discusses a comparison with dominant sequences predicted in the past Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) studies. These trends were examined for three time periods, 1969-81, 1984-87 and 1988-94. Although the different models had been used in the ASP analyses for these three periods, the distribution of precursors by dominant sequences show similar trends to each other. For example, the sequences involving loss of both main and auxiliary feedwater were identified in many PWR events and those involving loss of both high and low coolant injection were found in many BWR events. Also, it was found that these dominant sequences were comparable to those determined to be dominant in the predictions by the past PRAs. As well, a list of the 459 precursors identified are provided in Appendix, indicating initiating event types, unavailable systems, dominant sequences, conditional core damage probabilities, and so on. (author)

Changes in time-trends of nutrient intake from fortified and non-fortified food in German children and adolescents--15 year results of the DONALD study. Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sichert-Hellert, W; Kersting, M; Manz, F

2001-04-01

Although fortified products have played an increasing role in food marketing since the 1980s in Germany, data as to the consumption of fortified food is sparse. To assess long-term data on changes in fortified food supply or consumption patterns, nutrient intake, and time trends in the DONALD Study (Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed Study). Between 1985 and 2000 consumption of nutrient intake (total and from fortified foods) was evaluated and time trends in energy and nutrient intake were assessed on the basis of 3-day weighed dietary records (n = 4193) of 2-14 year-old males (n = 383) and females (n = 404) enrolled in the DONALD Study. Nutrient intake was expressed as percentage of the current German recommendations. Food products were defined as fortified if enriched with at least one of the following nutrients: Vitamin A or provitamin A carotenoids (summarised as Vitamin A), Vitamins E, B1, B2, B6, C, niacin, folate, calcium or iron. Nutrient supplements and medicine were excluded from this evaluation. Time trends were analysed using linear and non-linear regression models (PROC MIXED, SAS 6.12). In percent of German references [3], non-fortified food contributed to folate intake by 20-30%, to Vitamin E by about 40%, to Vitamin B1 by 50-65%, to Vitamin A, C, B2, calcium, iron by about 65-95%, and to Vitamin B6 and niacin intake by 100% and more. Fortified food alone provided no more than 5% of calcium intake, about 10-20% of iron, Vitamin A and folate intake, up to 40-50% of Vitamin C, B1, B2, E, niacin and up to 80% of Vitamin B6 intake. During the 15 year period of the DONALD Study with total food, we only found a significant linear time trend for Vitamin C, whereas significant non-linear time trends were found for calcium, Vitamin E, B1, B2, B6, niacin and folate. In the latter there was a uniform increase until 1994 and a decrease thereafter. For iron and Vitamin A no significant time trend could be identified. Only iron and

THE EFFECT OF DECOMPOSITION METHOD AS DATA PREPROCESSING ON NEURAL NETWORKS MODEL FOR FORECASTING TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Subanar Subanar

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Recently, one of the central topics for the neural networks (NN community is the issue of data preprocessing on the use of NN. In this paper, we will investigate this topic particularly on the effect of Decomposition method as data processing and the use of NN for modeling effectively time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. Limited empirical studies on seasonal time series forecasting with neural networks show that some find neural networks are able to model seasonality directly and prior deseasonalization is not necessary, and others conclude just the opposite. In this research, we study particularly on the effectiveness of data preprocessing, including detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method on NN modeling and forecasting performance. We use two kinds of data, simulation and real data. Simulation data are examined on multiplicative of trend and seasonality patterns. The results are compared to those obtained from the classical time series model. Our result shows that a combination of detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method is the effective data preprocessing on the use of NN for forecasting trend and seasonal time series.

State-level gonorrhea rates and expedited partner therapy laws: insights from time series analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Owusu-Edusei, K; Cramer, R; Chesson, H W; Gift, T L; Leichliter, J S

2017-06-01

In this study, we examined state-level monthly gonorrhea morbidity and assessed the potential impact of existing expedited partner therapy (EPT) laws in relation to the time that the laws were enacted. Longitudinal study. We obtained state-level monthly gonorrhea morbidity (number of cases/100,000 for males, females and total) from the national surveillance data. We used visual examination (of morbidity trends) and an autoregressive time series model in a panel format with intervention (interrupted time series) analysis to assess the impact of state EPT laws based on the months in which the laws were enacted. For over 84% of the states with EPT laws, the monthly morbidity trends did not show any noticeable decreases on or after the laws were enacted. Although we found statistically significant decreases in gonorrhea morbidity within four of the states with EPT laws (Alaska, Illinois, Minnesota, and Vermont), there were no significant decreases when the decreases in the four states were compared contemporaneously with the decreases in states that do not have the laws. We found no impact (decrease in gonorrhea morbidity) attributable exclusively to the EPT law(s). However, these results do not imply that the EPT laws themselves were not effective (or failed to reduce gonorrhea morbidity), because the effectiveness of the EPT law is dependent on necessary intermediate events/outcomes, including sexually transmitted infection service providers' awareness and practice, as well as acceptance by patients and their partners. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Italian cancer figures, report 2009: Cancer trend (1998-2005).

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

the aim of this collaborative project of the Italian Network of Cancer Registries (Airtum; www.registri-tumori.it) was to analyse cancer incidence and mortality trends in Italy with special reference to the period 1998-2005. the study was based on the Airtum database, which collects and checks data from all the Airtum registries. The present study was based on 20 general and 2 specific populationbased cancer registries. Overall, we analysed 818,017 incident cases and 342,444 cancer deaths for the time period 1998-2005. Seventy percent of the analysed population was from the North of Italy, 17% from the Centre, and 13% from the South. A joinpoint analysis was carried out to detect the point in time where the trend changed; trends are described by means of the estimated annual percent change (APC), with appropriate 95% confidence intervals. Crude and standardized incidence and mortality rates were computed for 36 cancer sites, for both sexes, three age-classes (0-49, 50-69 and 70+ years), and three geographic areas (North, Centre, and South of Italy). Specific chapters are devoted to long-term trends (1986-2005), differences among age-groups, and international comparisons. In 1998-2005, cancer mortality for all sites showed a statistically significant decrease among men (APC - 1.7) and women (- 0.8). Mortality significantly decreased in both sexes for stomach cancer, rectum cancer, liver cancer, and Hodgkin lymphoma. Mortality also decreased among men for cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract, oesophagus, lung, prostate, urinary bladder, and leukaemia. Among women mortality decreased for cancers of the colon, bone, breast, and uterus not otherwise specified. An increase in mortality was recorded for lung cancer among women (+1.5) and melanoma among men (+2.6). Incidence for all cancers together (except non-melanoma skin cancers) increased among men (APC +0.3) and remained stable among women. Cancer sites which showed increasing incidence were thyroid and melanoma

Time trends in lifetime incidence rates of first-time diagnosed anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa across 16 years in a Danish nationwide psychiatric registry study.

Science.gov (United States)

Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Jensen, Christina Mohr

2015-11-01

To study recent time trends in the incidence of diagnosed anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN) based on nationwide psychiatric register data. The Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry was used to identify the incidence of diagnosed cases with AN and BN at the ages of 4-65 years from 1995 to 2010. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated and were adjusted for time trends in the total number of people diagnosed in psychiatry. Time trends were analyzed using JoinPoint regression analysis. A total of N = 5,902 persons had a first-time incidence of AN, and a total of N = 5,113 had first-time incidence of BN. Incidence rates increased for AN from 6.4 to 12.6 per 100,000 person-years, and for BN from 6.3 to 7.2 per 100,000 person-years. In 2010, the male-to-female ratio was 1:8 for AN, and 1:20 for BN. There was an earlier onset for AN than for BN, and age at incidence decreased during the observation period for AN but not for BN. A sizeable part of the increasing incidence rates for AN and in particular, the younger AN age groups, could be attributed to an increase in the total number of N = 249,607 persons with first-time diagnoses in psychiatry. Incidence rates had increased slightly for AN, but were stable for BN across 16 years in this nationwide study and to a large extent were reflective of a general increase in diagnosed mental disorders. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Reference population for international comparisons and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery proportions in three countries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morken, N.H.; Vogel, I.; Kallen, K.

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: International comparison and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery rates is complex. New techniques that could facilitate interpretation of such rates are needed. METHODS: We studied all live births and stillbirths (>or= 28 weeks gestation) registered in the medical birth...

Trends in screen time on week and weekend days in a representative sample of Southern Brazil students.

Science.gov (United States)

Lopes, Adair S; Silva, Kelly S; Barbosa Filho, Valter C; Bezerra, Jorge; de Oliveira, Elusa S A; Nahas, Markus V

2014-12-01

Economic and technological improvements can help increase screen time use among adolescents, but evidence in developing countries is scarce. The aim of this study was to examine changes in TV watching and computer/video game use patterns on week and weekend days after a decade (2001 and 2011), among students in Santa Catarina, southern Brazil. A comparative analysis of two cross-sectional surveys that included 5 028 and 6 529 students in 2001 and 2011, respectively, aged 15-19 years. The screen time use indicators were self-reported. 95% Confidence intervals were used to compare the prevalence rates. All analyses were separated by gender. After a decade, there was a significant increase in computer/video game use. Inversely, a significant reduction in TV watching was observed, with a similar magnitude to the change in computer/video game use. The worst trends were identified on weekend days. The decrease in TV watching after a decade appears to be compensated by the increase in computer/video game use, both in boys and girls. Interventions are needed to reduce the negative impact of technological improvements in the lifestyles of young people, especially on weekend days. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Machiwal, Deepesh; Gupta, Ankit; Jha, Madan Kumar; Kamble, Trupti

2018-04-01

This study investigated trends in 35 years (1979-2013) temperature (maximum, Tmax and minimum, Tmin) and rainfall at annual and seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter) scales for 31 grid points in a coastal arid region of India. Box-whisker plots of annual temperature and rainfall time series depict systematic spatial gradients. Trends were examined by applying eight tests, such as Kendall rank correlation (KRC), Spearman rank order correlation (SROC), Mann-Kendall (MK), four modified MK tests, and innovative trend analysis (ITA). Trend magnitudes were quantified by Sen's slope estimator, and a new method was adopted to assess the significance of linear trends in MK-test statistics. It was found that the significant serial correlation is prominent in the annual and post-monsoon Tmax and Tmin, and pre-monsoon Tmin. The KRC and MK tests yielded similar results in close resemblance with the SROC test. The performance of two modified MK tests considering variance-correction approaches was found superior to the KRC, MK, modified MK with pre-whitening, and ITA tests. The performance of original MK test is poor due to the presence of serial correlation, whereas the ITA method is over-sensitive in identifying trends. Significantly increasing trends are more prominent in Tmin than Tmax. Further, both the annual and monsoon rainfall time series have a significantly increasing trend of 9 mm year-1. The sequential significance of linear trend in MK test-statistics is very strong (R 2 ≥ 0.90) in the annual and pre-monsoon Tmin (90% grid points), and strong (R 2 ≥ 0.75) in monsoon Tmax (68% grid points), monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter Tmin (respectively 65, 55, and 48% grid points), as well as in the annual and monsoon rainfalls (respectively 68 and 61% grid points). Finally, this study recommends use of variance-corrected MK test for the precise identification of trends. It is emphasized that the rising Tmax may hamper crop growth due to enhanced

Time Series Analysis of Insar Data: Methods and Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Osmanoglu, Batuhan; Sunar, Filiz; Wdowinski, Shimon; Cano-Cabral, Enrique

2015-01-01

Time series analysis of InSAR data has emerged as an important tool for monitoring and measuring the displacement of the Earth's surface. Changes in the Earth's surface can result from a wide range of phenomena such as earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, variations in ground water levels, and changes in wetland water levels. Time series analysis is applied to interferometric phase measurements, which wrap around when the observed motion is larger than one-half of the radar wavelength. Thus, the spatio-temporal ''unwrapping" of phase observations is necessary to obtain physically meaningful results. Several different algorithms have been developed for time series analysis of InSAR data to solve for this ambiguity. These algorithms may employ different models for time series analysis, but they all generate a first-order deformation rate, which can be compared to each other. However, there is no single algorithm that can provide optimal results in all cases. Since time series analyses of InSAR data are used in a variety of applications with different characteristics, each algorithm possesses inherently unique strengths and weaknesses. In this review article, following a brief overview of InSAR technology, we discuss several algorithms developed for time series analysis of InSAR data using an example set of results for measuring subsidence rates in Mexico City.

The Relative Importance of Random Error and Observation Frequency in Detecting Trends in Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor

Science.gov (United States)

Whiteman, David N.; Vermeesch, Kevin C.; Oman, Luke D.; Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.

2011-01-01

Recent published work assessed the amount of time to detect trends in atmospheric water vapor over the coming century. We address the same question and conclude that under the most optimistic scenarios and assuming perfect data (i.e., observations with no measurement uncertainty) the time to detect trends will be at least 12 years at approximately 200 hPa in the upper troposphere. Our times to detect trends are therefore shorter than those recently reported and this difference is affected by data sources used, method of processing the data, geographic location and pressure level in the atmosphere where the analyses were performed. We then consider the question of how instrumental uncertainty plays into the assessment of time to detect trends. We conclude that due to the high natural variability in atmospheric water vapor, the amount of time to detect trends in the upper troposphere is relatively insensitive to instrumental random uncertainty and that it is much more important to increase the frequency of measurement than to decrease the random error in the measurement. This is put in the context of international networks such as the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) and the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) that are tasked with developing time series of climate quality water vapor data.

Trends in air concentration and deposition at background monitoring sites in Sweden - major inorganic compounds, heavy metals and ozone

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kindbom, K.; Svensson, Annika; Sjoeberg, K.; Pihl Karlsson, G.

2001-09-01

This report describes concentrations in air of sulphur compounds, soot, nitrogen compounds and ozone in Sweden between 1985-1998. Time trends of concentration in precipitation and deposition of sulphate, nitrate, ammonium, acidity, base cations and chloride in six different regions covering Sweden are evaluated during the period 1983-1998. Trends of heavy metals in precipitation have been analysed for the period 1983-1998 and the change in heavy metal concentration, 1975-1995, in mosses is described. Data used in the trend analyses originates from measurements performed at six Swedish EMEP stations and from approximately 25 stations within the national Precipitation Chemistry Network. Two different statistical methods, linear regression and the non-parametric Mann Kendall test, have been used to evaluate changes in annual mean values. Time trends of concentration of sulphur dioxide, particulate sulphate, soot, nitrogen dioxide, total nitrate and total ammonium in air show highly significant decreasing trends, except for soot at one station in northern Sweden. Concentrations of ozone have a strong seasonal variation with a peak occurring in spring every year. However, annual ozone concentrations show no obvious trends in spite of decreasing emissions of the precursors NOx and VOC. A slight indication of a decreasing trend in the number of ozone episodes might be seen from 1990 to 1998. Sulphate concentrations in precipitation and deposition show strongly significant decreasing trends in the whole country. Concentrations and deposition of nitrate and ammonium have been decreasing in all areas except for nitrate at stations in south-west and north-west Sweden and ammonium in south-west Sweden. Acidity has decreased in all areas since 1989, resulting in increasing pH values in Sweden. The interannual variations of concentration and deposition of base cations and chloride are large and few general trends can be seen during 1983-1997. Time trends of four heavy metals in

Analysing passenger arrivals rates and waiting time at bus stops

OpenAIRE

Kaparias, I.; Rossetti, C.; Trozzi, V.

2015-01-01

The present study investigates the rather under-explored topic of passenger waiting times at public transport facilities. Using data collected from part of London’s bus network by means of physical counts, measurements and observations, and complemented by on-site passenger interviews, the waiting behaviour is analysed for a number of bus stops served by different numbers of lines. The analysis employs a wide range of statistical methods and tools, and concentrates on three aspects: passenger...

Increasing trends of herpes zoster in Australia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raina MacIntyre

Full Text Available Increasing trends in incidence of herpes zoster (HZ have been reported in Australia and internationally. This may reflect the impact of childhood VZV vaccination programs introduced universally in Australia in late 2005. The objective of this study was to evaluate changes in incidence of HZ and PHN in Australia over time, and associated healthcare resource utilisation.Australian data on general practice (GP encounters for HZ, specific antiviral prescribing data from the pharmaceutical benefits scheme, emergency department presentations from the states of NSW and Victoria and national hospitalisation data for HZ were analysed for time trends using regression models. Two time periods (2000-2006 and 2006-2013 were compared which correspond broadly with the pre- and post- universal VZV vaccination period.All data sources showed increasing rates of HZ with age and over time. The GP database showed a significant annual increase in encounters for HZ of 2.5 per 100,000 between 1998 and 2013, and the rates of prescriptions for HZ increased by 4.2% per year between 2002 and 2012. In the 60+ population HZ incidence was estimated to increase from 11.9 to 15.4 per 1,000 persons using GP data or from 12.8 to 14.2 per 1,000 persons using prescription data (p<0.05, between the two periods. Hospitalisation data did not show the same increasing trend over time, except for the age group ≥80 years. Most emergency visits for HZ were not admitted, and showed significant increases over time.The burden of HZ in Australia is substantial, and continues to increase over time. This increase is seen both pre- and post-universal VZV vaccination in 2005, and is most prominent in the older population. The substantial burden of HZ, along with ageing of the Australian population and the importance of healthy ageing, warrants consideration of HZ vaccination for the elderly.

Working Less and Living Longer: Long-Term Trends in Working Time and Time Budgets

OpenAIRE

Ausubel, J.H.; Grubler, A.

1994-01-01

Analyses of time series data beginning in the mid-nineteenth century in the industrialized nations, especially in the United Kingdom, show that on average people are working significantly less while living longer. Although the average career length has remained around 40 years, the total lifetime hours worked shrank for an average British worker from 124,000 hours in 1856 to 69,000 in 1981. The fraction of disposable lifetime hours spent working declined from 50% to 20%. The female share of c...

Multi-scale analysis of teleconnection indices: climate noise and nonlinear trend analysis

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C. Franzke

2009-02-01

Full Text Available The multi-scale nature and climate noise properties of teleconnection indices are examined by using the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD procedure. The EMD procedure allows for the analysis of non-stationary time series to extract physically meaningful intrinsic mode functions (IMF and nonlinear trends. The climatologically relevant monthly mean teleconnection indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, the North Pacific index (NP and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM are analyzed.

The significance of IMFs and trends are tested against the null hypothesis of climate noise. The analysis of surrogate monthly mean time series from a red noise process shows that the EMD procedure is effectively a dyadic filter bank and the IMFs (except the first IMF are nearly Gaussian distributed. The distribution of the variance contained in IMFs of an ensemble of AR(1 simulations is nearly χ² distributed. To test the statistical significance of the IMFs of the teleconnection indices and their nonlinear trends we utilize an ensemble of corresponding monthly averaged AR(1 processes, which we refer to as climate noise. Our results indicate that most of the interannual and decadal variability of the analysed teleconnection indices cannot be distinguished from climate noise. The NP and SAM indices have significant nonlinear trends, while the NAO has no significant trend when tested against a climate noise hypothesis.

Trends in job satisfaction among German nurses from 1990 to 2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Alameddine, Mohamad; Bauer, Jan Michael; Richter, Martin; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso

2016-04-01

Improving the job satisfaction of nurses is essential to enhance their productivity and retention and to improve patient care. Our aim was to analyse trends in German nurses' job satisfaction to enhance understanding of the nursing labour market and inform future policies. We used 1990-2012 German Socioeconomic Panel data for trends in nurses' job satisfaction. Comparisons were drawn with doctors, other health care workers, and employees in other sectors of employment. Analysis explored associations between job satisfaction trends and other aspects of employment, such as whether full time or part time and pay. To account for fluctuations across the period of analysis, linear trends were generated using ordinary least squares. Over 23 years, job satisfaction of German nurses underwent a steady and gradual decline, dropping by an average 7.5%, whereas that of doctors and other health care workers increased by 14.4% and 1%, respectively. The decline for part-time nurses (13%) was more pronounced than that for full-time nurses (3%). At the same time, nurses' pay rose by only 3.8% compared to a 23.8% increase for doctors. The steady decline in nurses' job satisfaction over the last two decades may be attributable to the multiple reforms and associated policy changes that generally disadvantaged nurses. Contributing factors to job satisfaction decline include lower pay and the demanding and strenuous work environment. Irrespective of the reason, health services researchers, leaders, and policy makers should investigate the reasons for this decline given the forecast growth in work load and complexity of care. Supportive policies for nurses would help enhance the quality and sustainability of German health care. © The Author(s) 2015.

Ethnic variations in overweight and obesity among children over time: findings from analyses of the Health Surveys for England 1998-2009.

Science.gov (United States)

Karlsen, S; Morris, S; Kinra, S; Vallejo-Torres, L; Viner, R M

2014-06-01

The increase in the prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents in England since the mid-1990s has been dramatic. Cross-sectional evidence suggests ethnic variations in childhood obesity prevalence. The objective of the study was to examine whether and how ethnic variations in childhood overweight/obesity have changed over time, and are affected by socioeconomic factors. This study uses logistic regression to analyse ethnic differences in the relative likelihood of being at or above the age- and gender-specific thresholds for overweight and obesity developed by the International Obesity Task Force among children aged between 2 and 15 from 11 ethnic groups included in the Health Surveys for England between 1998 and 2009, adjusting for age, gender, year of data collection and equivalized household income. We separately analyse the likelihood of being at or above the thresholds for overweight (but below those for obesity) and obesity. Trends in overweight/obesity over time among ethnic minority groups do not follow those of white English children. Black African children had higher rates of overweight and obesity, which appear to have peaked, and black Caribbean children had higher rates of obesity than other groups examined, which appear to continue rising. These differences were not explained by socioeconomic variations between groups. Policies are required that encourage healthy lifestyles among ethnic minority young people, while engaging with the complexities associated with these choices during childhood and adolescence. © 2013 The Authors. Pediatric Obesity © 2013 International Association for the Study of Obesity.

Global Trends of Tropospheric NO2 Observed From Space

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, P.; van der A, R. J.

2012-04-01

the most rapid relative increase during the study period (9.5 ± 1.7 percent per year). In contrast, significantly decreasing trends in NO2 levels exist over large parts of Europe and the Eastern United States, with average rates of decrease in the range of 0 to -10 percent per year. The satellite-derived time series were further analysed with respect to identification of the impact of the 2008/2009 economic crisis. European trends obtained from the satellite analysis are also compared with corresponding trends computed using data of the Co-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP) model, as well as with NO2 trends calculated from station observations throughout Europe.

[Time trend study of firearm mortality in Argentina, 1980-2012].

Science.gov (United States)

Spinelli, Hugo; Santoro, Adrián; Guevel, Carlos; Alazraqui, Marcio

2015-06-01

This work analyzes the impact of firearm mortality between 1980 and 2012 in Argentina. For this purpose a descriptive epidemiological time trend study was carried out including the following variables: sex, age group, intentionality and jurisdiction. Data was obtained from the Office of Health Statistics and Information of the Argentine Ministry of Health. A total of 87,671 deaths due to firearms were discovered, of which 85.7% occurred in men. The highest mortality rate due to firearms corresponded to the year 2002, reaching 21.2 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The age group concentrating the largest number of deaths due to firearms was that of 20-29 years, accounting for 25.6% of all deaths. The highest adjusted rates corresponded to the years 2000-2002, with values of 10.0 to 11.6 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. This time period coincides with the institutional-economic crisis the country experienced. The province of Buenos Aires was the place of residence of 49.1% of the deceased. In the discussion, political-economic and ideological-cultural dimensions of the relations among firearms, violence, science and society are considered.

Calibration Uncertainty in Ocean Color Satellite Sensors and Trends in Long-term Environmental Records

Science.gov (United States)

Turpie, Kevin R.; Eplee, Robert E., Jr.; Franz, Bryan A.; Del Castillo, Carlos

2014-01-01

Launched in late 2011, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) spacecraft is being evaluated by NASA to determine whether this sensor can continue the ocean color data record established through the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). To this end, Goddard Space Flight Center generated evaluation ocean color data products using calibration techniques and algorithms established by NASA during the SeaWiFS and MODIS missions. The calibration trending was subjected to some initial sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Here we present an introductory assessment of how the NASA-produced time series of ocean color is influenced by uncertainty in trending instrument response over time. The results help quantify the uncertainty in measuring regional and global biospheric trends in the ocean using satellite remote sensing, which better define the roles of such records in climate research.

Portrayal of tobacco use in prime-time TV dramas: trends and associations with adult cigarette consumption--USA, 1955-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Jamieson, Patrick E; Romer, Daniel

2015-05-01

Although portrayal of television (TV) and movie tobacco use has been linked with initiation of cigarette smoking in adolescents, its association with smoking in adults has not been assessed. Therefore, we examined long-term and annual changes in tobacco portrayal in popular US TV dramas and their associations with comparable trends in national adult cigarette consumption. Tobacco use in 1838 h of popular US TV dramas was coded from 1955-2010. The long-term trend and annual deviations from trend were studied in relation to comparable trends in adult per capita cigarette consumption using correlational and time-series methods that controlled for other potential predictors. TV tobacco portrayal has trended downward since 1955 in line with the historical trend in cigarette consumption. Controlling for changes in cigarette prices and other factors, annual changes of one tobacco instance per episode hour across 2 years of programming were associated with annual change of 38.5 cigarettes per US adult. The decline in TV tobacco portrayal was associated with nearly half the effect of increases in cigarette prices over the study period. The correlation between tobacco portrayal in TV dramas and adult cigarette consumption is consistent with well-established effects of exposure to tobacco cues that create craving for cigarettes in adult smokers. Although tobacco use in TV dramas along with movies has declined over time, portrayal of smoking on screen media should be a focus for future adult tobacco control research and policy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Characterization of Land Transitions Patterns from Multivariate Time Series Using Seasonal Trend Analysis and Principal Component Analysis

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Benoit Parmentier

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Characterizing biophysical changes in land change areas over large regions with short and noisy multivariate time series and multiple temporal parameters remains a challenging task. Most studies focus on detection rather than the characterization, i.e., the manner by which surface state variables are altered by the process of changes. In this study, a procedure is presented to extract and characterize simultaneous temporal changes in MODIS multivariate times series from three surface state variables the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, land surface temperature (LST and albedo (ALB. The analysis involves conducting a seasonal trend analysis (STA to extract three seasonal shape parameters (Amplitude 0, Amplitude 1 and Amplitude 2 and using principal component analysis (PCA to contrast trends in change and no-change areas. We illustrate the method by characterizing trends in burned and unburned pixels in Alaska over the 2001–2009 time period. Findings show consistent and meaningful extraction of temporal patterns related to fire disturbances. The first principal component (PC1 is characterized by a decrease in mean NDVI (Amplitude 0 with a concurrent increase in albedo (the mean and the annual amplitude and an increase in LST annual variability (Amplitude 1. These results provide systematic empirical evidence of surface changes associated with one type of land change, fire disturbances, and suggest that STA with PCA may be used to characterize many other types of land transitions over large landscape areas using multivariate Earth observation time series.

Temporal trends and recent correlates in sedentary behaviours in Chinese children

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dibley Michael J

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Sedentary behaviours (television, video and computer are related to health outcomes independent of physical activity. Few studies have examined trends and correlates of sedentary behaviours among youth in developing nations. The current study is to examine temporal trends in sedentary behaviours and recent correlates of screen use in Chinese children during a period of economic transition. Methods Secondary analysis of China Health and Nutrition Surveys. Cross-sectional data on sedentary behaviours including screen use among children aged 6-18 years from four surveys in 1997 (n = 2,469, 2000 (n = 1,838, 2004 (n = 1,382 and 2006 (n = 1,128. Temporal trends in screen use by socio-demographic characteristics were examined. The correlates of spending more than 2 hours per day on screen time in the most recent survey data (2006, n = 986 were analysed using survey logistic regression analysis. Results Daily screen time significantly increased in each subgroup by age, sex and urban/rural residence, with the largest increase for urban boys aged 13-18 years from 0.5 hours to 1.7 hours, and for rural boys aged 6-12 years from 0.7 hours to 1.7 hours (p Conclusion This study confirms sedentary behaviour has increased over the last decade in Chinese children. Efforts to ensure Chinese youth meet screen time guidelines include limiting access to screen technologies and encouraging parents to monitor their own screen time and to set limits on their child's screen time.

Part-time and full-time medical specialists, are there differences in allocation of time?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Groenewegen Peter P

2006-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background An increasing number of medical specialists prefer to work part-time. This development can be found worldwide. Problems to be faced in the realization of part-time work in medicine include the division of night and weekend shifts, as well as communication between physicians and continuity of care. People tend to think that physicians working part-time are less devoted to their work, implying that full-time physicians complete a greater number of tasks. The central question in this article is whether part-time medical specialists allocate their time differently to their tasks than full-time medical specialists. Methods A questionnaire was sent by mail to all internists (N = 817, surgeons (N = 693 and radiologists (N = 621 working in general hospitals in the Netherlands. Questions were asked about the actual situation, such as hours worked and night and weekend shifts. The response was 53% (n = 411 for internists, 52% (n = 359 for surgeons, and 36% (n = 213 for radiologists. Due to non-response on specific questions there were 367 internists, 316 surgeons, and 71 radiologists included in the analyses. Multilevel analyses were used to analyze the data. Results Part-time medical specialists do not spend proportionally more time on direct patient care. With respect to night and weekend shifts, part-time medical specialists account for proportionally more or an equal share of these shifts. The number of hours worked per FTE is higher for part-time than for full-time medical specialists, although this difference is only significant for surgeons. Conclusion In general, part-time medical specialists do their share of the job. However, we focussed on input only. Besides input, output like the numbers of services provided deserves attention as well. The trend in medicine towards more part-time work has an important consequence: more medical specialists are needed to get the work done. Therefore, a greater number of medical specialists

Secular trends in fruit intake among Danish schoolchildren, 1988 to 2006: Changing habits or methodological artefacts?

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Due Pernille

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Intermittent monitoring of fruit and vegetable intake at the population level is essential for the evaluation and planning of national dietary interventions. Yet, only a limited number of studies on time trends in fruit and vegetable intake among children and adolescents have been published internationally. In Denmark, national comprehensive campaigns to enhance fruit and vegetable consumption were initiated in 2001. This paper describes secular trends in fruit intake among Danish adolescents by six comparable school surveys from 1988 to 2006. The paper demonstrates and discusses the consequences of measurement changes introduced in long-term trend analyses. Methods We used Danish data from the international Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC study collected in 1988, 1991, 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2006. Analyses were conducted on comparable questionnaire-based data from students aged 11, 13 and 15 total (n = 23,871 from a random sample of schools. Data on fruit intake were measured by a food frequency questionnaire. Due to changes in number of response categories beween surveys, different cut-points were analysed. Results The prevalence of students eating fruit at least once daily ranged from 78.3% among 13-year-old girls in 1988 to 17.3% among 15-year-old boys in 2002. Based on the six data collections, analyses of trends showed a significant decrease in prevalence of students eating fruit at least once daily from 1988 to 2002 (all p-values Conclusion Fruit consumption among Danish schoolchildren decreased from 1988 to 2002 with an increase since 2002. We suggest that the increase may be attributable to a nation-wide initiative conducted in Denmark since 2001 to increase the intake of fruit and vegetables in the population. Still, the results imply that a substantial proportion of Danish schoolchildren do not meet the nationally recommended daily intake of fruit. Our analyses indicate that the observed trends are not

Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on kidney cancer mortality in Europe, 1981–2000

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López-Abente Gonzalo

2006-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The incorporation of diagnostic and therapeutic improvements, as well as the different smoking patterns, may have had an influence on the observed variability in renal cancer mortality across Europe. This study examined time trends in kidney cancer mortality in fourteen European countries during the last two decades of the 20th century. Methods Kidney cancer deaths and population estimates for each country during the period 1981–2000 were drawn from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age- and period-adjusted mortality rates, as well as annual percentage changes in age-adjusted mortality rates, were calculated for each country and geographical region. Log-linear Poisson models were also fitted to study the effect of age, death period, and birth cohort on kidney cancer mortality rates within each country. Results For men, the overall standardized kidney cancer mortality rates in the eastern, western, and northern European countries were 20, 25, and 53% higher than those for the southern European countries, respectively. However, age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant annual decrease of -0.7% in the north of Europe, a moderate rise of 0.7% in the west, and substantial increases of 1.4% in the south and 2.0% in the east. This trend was similar among women, but with lower mortality rates. Age-period-cohort models showed three different birth-cohort patterns for both men and women: a decrease in mortality trend for those generations born after 1920 in the Nordic countries, a similar but lagged decline for cohorts born after 1930 in western and southern European countries, and a continuous increase throughout all birth cohorts in eastern Europe. Similar but more heterogeneous regional patterns were observed for period effects. Conclusion Kidney cancer mortality trends in Europe showed a clear north-south pattern, with high rates on a downward trend in the north, intermediate rates on a more marked rising

Regional changes in charcoal-burning suicide rates in East/Southeast Asia from 1995 to 2011: a time trend analysis.

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Shu-Sen Chang

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Suicides by carbon monoxide poisoning resulting from burning barbecue charcoal reached epidemic levels in Hong Kong and Taiwan within 5 y of the first reported cases in the early 2000s. The objectives of this analysis were to investigate (i time trends and regional patterns of charcoal-burning suicide throughout East/Southeast Asia during the time period 1995-2011 and (ii whether any rises in use of this method were associated with increases in overall suicide rates. Sex- and age-specific trends over time were also examined to identify the demographic groups showing the greatest increases in charcoal-burning suicide rates across different countries.We used data on suicides by gases other than domestic gas for Hong Kong, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore in the years 1995/1996-2011. Similar data for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand were also extracted but were incomplete. Graphical and joinpoint regression analyses were used to examine time trends in suicide, and negative binomial regression analysis to study sex- and age-specific patterns. In 1995/1996, charcoal-burning suicides accounted for <1% of all suicides in all study countries, except in Japan (5%, but they increased to account for 13%, 24%, 10%, 7%, and 5% of all suicides in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore, respectively, in 2011. Rises were first seen in Hong Kong after 1998 (95% CI 1997-1999, followed by Singapore in 1999 (95% CI 1998-2001, Taiwan in 2000 (95% CI 1999-2001, Japan in 2002 (95% CI 1999-2003, and the Republic of Korea in 2007 (95% CI 2006-2008. No marked increases were seen in Malaysia, the Philippines, or Thailand. There was some evidence that charcoal-burning suicides were associated with an increase in overall suicide rates in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Japan (for females, but not in Japan (for males, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore. Rates of change in charcoal-burning suicide rate did not differ by sex/age group

Regional changes in charcoal-burning suicide rates in East/Southeast Asia from 1995 to 2011: a time trend analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Shu-Sen; Chen, Ying-Yeh; Yip, Paul S F; Lee, Won Jin; Hagihara, Akihito; Gunnell, David

2014-04-01

Suicides by carbon monoxide poisoning resulting from burning barbecue charcoal reached epidemic levels in Hong Kong and Taiwan within 5 y of the first reported cases in the early 2000s. The objectives of this analysis were to investigate (i) time trends and regional patterns of charcoal-burning suicide throughout East/Southeast Asia during the time period 1995-2011 and (ii) whether any rises in use of this method were associated with increases in overall suicide rates. Sex- and age-specific trends over time were also examined to identify the demographic groups showing the greatest increases in charcoal-burning suicide rates across different countries. We used data on suicides by gases other than domestic gas for Hong Kong, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore in the years 1995/1996-2011. Similar data for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand were also extracted but were incomplete. Graphical and joinpoint regression analyses were used to examine time trends in suicide, and negative binomial regression analysis to study sex- and age-specific patterns. In 1995/1996, charcoal-burning suicides accounted for <1% of all suicides in all study countries, except in Japan (5%), but they increased to account for 13%, 24%, 10%, 7%, and 5% of all suicides in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore, respectively, in 2011. Rises were first seen in Hong Kong after 1998 (95% CI 1997-1999), followed by Singapore in 1999 (95% CI 1998-2001), Taiwan in 2000 (95% CI 1999-2001), Japan in 2002 (95% CI 1999-2003), and the Republic of Korea in 2007 (95% CI 2006-2008). No marked increases were seen in Malaysia, the Philippines, or Thailand. There was some evidence that charcoal-burning suicides were associated with an increase in overall suicide rates in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Japan (for females), but not in Japan (for males), the Republic of Korea, and Singapore. Rates of change in charcoal-burning suicide rate did not differ by sex/age group in

Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in the southern Tianshan Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Yan-Jun; Shen, Yanjun; Fink, Manfred; Kralisch, Sven; Chen, Yaning; Brenning, Alexander

2018-02-01

Streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing of mountain rivers are susceptible to climate change. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in four mountain basins in the southern Tianshan were analyzed in this study. Streamflow trends were detected by Mann-Kendall tests and changes in snowmelt runoff timing were analyzed based on the winter/spring snowmelt runoff center time (WSCT). Pearson's correlation coefficient was further calculated to analyze the relationships between climate variables, streamflow and WSCT. Annual streamflow increased significantly in past decades in the southern Tianshan, especially in spring and winter months. However, the relations between streamflow and temperature/precipitation depend on the different streamflow generation processes. Annual precipitation plays a vital role in controlling recharge in the Toxkon basin, while the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are governed by both precipitation and temperature. Seasonally, temperature has a strong effect on streamflow in autumn and winter, while summer streamflow appears more sensitive to changes in precipitation. However, temperature is the dominant factor for streamflow in the glacierized Kunmalik basin at annual and seasonal scales. An uptrend in streamflow begins in the 1990s at both annual and seasonal scales, which is generally consistent with temperature and precipitation fluctuations. Average WSCT dates in the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are earlier than in the Toxkon and Kunmalik basins, and shifted towards earlier dates since the mid-1980s in all the basins. It is plausible that WSCT dates are more sensitive to warmer temperature in spring period compared to precipitation, except for the Huangshuigou basin. Taken together, these findings are useful for applications in flood risk regulation, future hydropower projects and integrated water resources management.

Temperature trends with reduced impact of ocean air temperature

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lansner, Frank; Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke

Temperature data 1900-2010 from meteorological stations across the world have been analysed and it has been found that all areas generally have two different valid temperature trends. Coastal stations and hill stations facing dominant ocean winds are normally more warm-trended than the valley sta...

Time trends in upper gastrointestinal diseases and Helicobacter pylori infection in a multiracial Asian population--a 20-year experience over three time periods.

Science.gov (United States)

Leow, A H-R; Lim, Y-Y; Liew, W-C; Goh, K-L

2016-04-01

Marked epidemiological changes in upper gastrointestinal diseases and Helicobacter pylori infection have taken place in the Asian Pacific region. In particular, differences with respect to race in the multiracial Asian population in Malaysia have been important and interesting. A time trend study of upper gastrointestinal disease and H. pylori infection in three time periods: 1989-1990, 1999-2000 and 2009-2010 spanning a period of 20 years was carried out. Consecutive first time gastroscopies carried out on patients attending the University of Malaya Medical Center were studied. Diagnoses and H. pylori infection status were carefully recorded. A steady decline in prevalence of duodenal ulcer (DU) and gastric ulcer (GU) from 21.1% to 9.5% to 5.0% and from 11.9% to 9.4% to 9.9% while an increase in erosive oesophagitis (EO) from 2.0% to 8.4% to 9.5% (chi-square for trend; P Chinese and Indians but the difference over time was most marked in Malays. There was a steady decline in the proportion of patients with gastric and oesophageal cancers. Peptic ulcers have declined significantly over a 20-year period together with a decline in H. pylori infection. In contrast, a steady increase in erosive oesophagitis was observed. Gastric and oesophageal squamous cell cancers have declined to low levels. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Which Trend is your Friend?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Levine, Ari; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

2016-01-01

Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically, that these......Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically......, that these trend indicators are closely related. In fact, they are equivalent representations in their most general forms. They also capture many other types of filters, such as the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, the Kalman filter, and all other linear filters. We show how these filters can be represented through...

Application of the Trend Filtering Algorithm for Photometric Time Series Data

Science.gov (United States)

Gopalan, Giri; Plavchan, Peter; van Eyken, Julian; Ciardi, David; von Braun, Kaspar; Kane, Stephen R.

2016-08-01

Detecting transient light curves (e.g., transiting planets) requires high-precision data, and thus it is important to effectively filter systematic trends affecting ground-based wide-field surveys. We apply an implementation of the Trend Filtering Algorithm (TFA) to the 2MASS calibration catalog and select Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) photometric time series data. TFA is successful at reducing the overall dispersion of light curves, however, it may over-filter intrinsic variables and increase “instantaneous” dispersion when a template set is not judiciously chosen. In an attempt to rectify these issues we modify the original TFA from the literature by including measurement uncertainties in its computation, including ancillary data correlated with noise, and algorithmically selecting a template set using clustering algorithms as suggested by various authors. This approach may be particularly useful for appropriately accounting for variable photometric precision surveys and/or combined data sets. In summary, our contributions are to provide a MATLAB software implementation of TFA and a number of modifications tested on synthetics and real data, summarize the performance of TFA and various modifications on real ground-based data sets (2MASS and PTF), and assess the efficacy of TFA and modifications using synthetic light curve tests consisting of transiting and sinusoidal variables. While the transiting variables test indicates that these modifications confer no advantage to transit detection, the sinusoidal variables test indicates potential improvements in detection accuracy.

Trends over time in the incidence of congenital anophthalmia, microphthalmia and orbital malformation in England: database study.

Science.gov (United States)

Dharmasena, Aruna; Keenan, Tiarnan; Goldacre, Raph; Hall, Nick; Goldacre, Michael J

2017-06-01

To study trends over time in the incidence of congenital anophthalmia, microphthalmia and orbital malformations in England, along with changes in hospital admission rates for these conditions. Using English National Hospital Episode Statistics (1999-2011), the annual rate of hospital admissions related to anophthalmia, microphthalmia and congenital malformations of orbit/lacrimal apparatus was calculated per 100 000 infants. The records were person-linked, which enabled patients' 'first record' rates to be calculated as proxies for incidence. Similar analyses on pre-1999 datasets were also undertaken for microphthalmia. There was no systematic increase or decrease over time in the incidence of these conditions, but there was some fluctuation from year to year. The incidence of congenital anophthalmia ranged from 2.4 (95% CI 1.3 to 4.0) per 100 000 infants in 1999 to 0.4 (0 to 1.3) in 2011. The annual incidence of congenital microphthalmia was 10.8 (8.2 to 13.5) in 1999 and 10.0 (7.6 to 12.4) in 2011. The annual incidence of congenital orbital/lacrimal malformations was 0.5 (0 to 1.1) in 1999 and 0.7 (0 to 1.4) in 2011. Including multiple admissions per person, admission rates for microphthalmia showed a linear increase over time from 1999. The earlier data for microphthalmia indicated an increase in admission rates, but no change in incidence, from 1971 to 2011. The incidence of these conditions has remained stable in England in recent years. Although the incidence of microphthalmia was stable, hospital admission rates for it increased over time reflecting an increase in multiple admissions per affected person. These data may be useful for planning service provision. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

The Use of Categorized Time-Trend Reporting of Radiation Oncology Incidents: A Proactive Analytical Approach to Improving Quality and Safety Over Time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnold, Anthony; Delaney, Geoff P.; Cassapi, Lynette; Barton, Michael

2010-01-01

Purpose: Radiotherapy is a common treatment for cancer patients. Although incidence of error is low, errors can be severe or affect significant numbers of patients. In addition, errors will often not manifest until long periods after treatment. This study describes the development of an incident reporting tool that allows categorical analysis and time trend reporting, covering first 3 years of use. Methods and Materials: A radiotherapy-specific incident analysis system was established. Staff members were encouraged to report actual errors and near-miss events detected at prescription, simulation, planning, or treatment phases of radiotherapy delivery. Trend reporting was reviewed monthly. Results: Reports were analyzed for the first 3 years of operation (May 2004-2007). A total of 688 reports was received during the study period. The actual error rate was 0.2% per treatment episode. During the study period, the actual error rates reduced significantly from 1% per year to 0.3% per year (p < 0.001), as did the total event report rates (p < 0.0001). There were 3.5 times as many near misses reported compared with actual errors. Conclusions: This system has allowed real-time analysis of events within a radiation oncology department to a reduced error rate through focus on learning and prevention from the near-miss reports. Plans are underway to develop this reporting tool for Australia and New Zealand.

Maternal inactivity: 45-year trends in mothers' use of time.

Science.gov (United States)

Archer, Edward; Lavie, Carl J; McDonald, Samantha M; Thomas, Diana M; Hébert, James R; Taverno Ross, Sharon E; McIver, Kerry L; Malina, Robert M; Blair, Steven N

2013-12-01

To examine 45-year trends in time use and physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) in a nationally representative sample of US mothers. We quantified time allocation to physical activity (PA), sedentary behaviors (SED), and PAEE from 1965 to 2010 in mothers with older children (MOC) (>5 to ≤18 years) and mothers with younger children (MYC) (≤5 years). Physical activity was the sum of time allocated to housework, child care, laundry, food preparation, postmeal cleanup, and exercise. Sedentary behavior was the sum of time spent in a vehicle and using screen-based media. Physical activity energy expenditure was calculated using body weights from national surveys and metabolic equivalents. From 1965 to 2010, the time allocated to PA decreased by 11.1 h/wk (from 32.0 to 20.9 h/wk) in MOC and by 13.9 h/wk (from 43.6 to 29.7 h/wk) in MYC. The time spent in SED increased by 7.0 h/wk in MOC (from 17.7 to 24.7 h/wk) and increased by 5.7 h/wk in MYC (from 17.0 to 22.7 h/wk). Physical activity energy expenditure decreased by 1237.6 kcal/wk (176.8 kcal/d) in MOC (from 5835.3 to 4597.7 kcal/wk), and in MYC, PAEE decreased by 1572.5 kcal/wk (224.6 kcal/d), from 7690.5 to 6118.0 kcal/wk. There was a significant reallocation of time by mothers from PA (eg, housework) to SED (eg, watching television) between 1965 and 2010. Given the essential role of PA for health and the potential for the intergenerational transmission of obesity and obesogenic behaviors, these results suggest that maternal inactivity may be an important target for the primary prevention of chronic noncommunicable diseases and obesity. Copyright © 2013 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

THE VEGETATION TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN BEIJING-TIANJING-HEIBEI REGION FROM 1982 TO 2013 BASED ON TIME SERIES GIMMS NDVI3g

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Liu

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Vegetation plays a leading role in ecosystems. Plant communities are the main components of ecosystems. Green plants in ecosystems are the primary producers, and they provide the living organic matter for the survival of other organisms. The dynamics of most landscapes are driven by both natural processes and human activities. In this study, the growing season GIMMS NDVI3g and climatic data were used to analyse the vegetation trends and drivers in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1982 to 2013. Result shows that, the vegetation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows overall restoration and partial degradation trend. The significant restoration region accounts for 61.5 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, while the significant degradation region accounts for 2.1 %. The dominant climatic factor for time series NDVI were analyzed using the multi-linear regression model. Vegetation growth in 17.9 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is dominated by temperature, 35.5 % is dominated by precipitation, and 11.68 % is dominated by solar radiance. Human activities play important role for vegetation restoration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, where the large scale forest restoration programs are the main human activities, such as the three-north shelterbelt construction project, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei sandstorm source control project and grain for green projects.

Trends in information behaviour research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Greifeneder, Elke Susanne

2014-01-01

behaviour related publication venues between 2012 and 2014. Analysis. Publication titles, authors, years, publication venue, methods and topics were collected and quantitatively analysed. Results. Qualitative methods still dominate information behaviour research. Content analysis and participatory designs......Introduction. This paper traces current trends in information behaviour research, both in terms of methods and topics. Results are put into relation to the previous trend analysis by Julien et al. (2011) and Vakkari (2008). Method. Trends derive from a publication analysis taken from information...... are gaining terrain. Information seeking is still the major topic of interest. Important newer topics are studies focusing on users’ context and on special needs. Conclusion. Information behaviour research has evolved a great deal over the last years and has taken on new methods and new topics. A discussion...

Patterns of breast cancer mortality trends in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Amaro, Joana; Severo, Milton; Vilela, Sofia; Fonseca, Sérgio; Fontes, Filipa; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lunet, Nuno

2013-06-01

To identify patterns of variation in breast cancer mortality in Europe (1980-2010), using a model-based approach. Mortality data were obtained from the World Health Organization database and mixed models were used to describe the time trends in the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR). Model-based clustering was used to identify clusters of countries with homogeneous variation in ASMR. Three patterns were identified. Patterns 1 and 2 are characterized by stable or slightly increasing trends in ASMR in the first half of the period analysed, and a clear decline is observed thereafter; in pattern 1 the median of the ASMR is higher, and the highest rates were achieved sooner. Pattern 3 is characterised by a rapid increase in mortality until 1999, declining slowly thereafter. This study provides a general model for the description and interpretation of the variation in breast cancer mortality in Europe, based in three main patterns. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the Capacity of Google Trends to Measure Interest in Conservation Topics and the Role of Online News.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Le T P Nghiem

Full Text Available With the continuous growth of internet usage, Google Trends has emerged as a source of information to investigate how social trends evolve over time. Knowing how the level of interest in conservation topics--approximated using Google search volume--varies over time can help support targeted conservation science communication. However, the evolution of search volume over time and the mechanisms that drive peaks in searches are poorly understood. We conducted time series analyses on Google search data from 2004 to 2013 to investigate: (i whether interests in selected conservation topics have declined and (ii the effect of news reporting and academic publishing on search volume. Although trends were sensitive to the term used as benchmark, we did not find that public interest towards conservation topics such as climate change, ecosystem services, deforestation, orangutan, invasive species and habitat loss was declining. We found, however, a robust downward trend for endangered species and an upward trend for ecosystem services. The quantity of news articles was related to patterns in Google search volume, whereas the number of research articles was not a good predictor but lagged behind Google search volume, indicating the role of news in the transfer of conservation science to the public.

Analysis of the Capacity of Google Trends to Measure Interest in Conservation Topics and the Role of Online News.

Science.gov (United States)

Nghiem, Le T P; Papworth, Sarah K; Lim, Felix K S; Carrasco, Luis R

2016-01-01

With the continuous growth of internet usage, Google Trends has emerged as a source of information to investigate how social trends evolve over time. Knowing how the level of interest in conservation topics--approximated using Google search volume--varies over time can help support targeted conservation science communication. However, the evolution of search volume over time and the mechanisms that drive peaks in searches are poorly understood. We conducted time series analyses on Google search data from 2004 to 2013 to investigate: (i) whether interests in selected conservation topics have declined and (ii) the effect of news reporting and academic publishing on search volume. Although trends were sensitive to the term used as benchmark, we did not find that public interest towards conservation topics such as climate change, ecosystem services, deforestation, orangutan, invasive species and habitat loss was declining. We found, however, a robust downward trend for endangered species and an upward trend for ecosystem services. The quantity of news articles was related to patterns in Google search volume, whereas the number of research articles was not a good predictor but lagged behind Google search volume, indicating the role of news in the transfer of conservation science to the public.

News trends and web search query of HIV/AIDS in Hong Kong

Science.gov (United States)

Chiu, Alice P. Y.; Lin, Qianying

2017-01-01

Background The HIV epidemic in Hong Kong has worsened in recent years, with major contributions from high-risk subgroup of men who have sex with men (MSM). Internet use is prevalent among the majority of the local population, where they sought health information online. This study examines the impacts of HIV/AIDS and MSM news coverage on web search query in Hong Kong. Methods Relevant news coverage about HIV/AIDS and MSM from January 1st, 2004 to December 31st, 2014 was obtained from the WiseNews databse. News trends were created by computing the number of relevant articles by type, topic, place of origin and sub-populations. We then obtained relevant search volumes from Google and analysed causality between news trends and Google Trends using Granger Causality test and orthogonal impulse function. Results We found that editorial news has an impact on “HIV” Google searches on HIV, with the search term popularity peaking at an average of two weeks after the news are published. Similarly, editorial news has an impact on the frequency of “AIDS” searches two weeks after. MSM-related news trends have a more fluctuating impact on “MSM” Google searches, although the time lag varies anywhere from one week later to ten weeks later. Conclusions This infodemiological study shows that there is a positive impact of news trends on the online search behavior of HIV/AIDS or MSM-related issues for up to ten weeks after. Health promotional professionals could make use of this brief time window to tailor the timing of HIV awareness campaigns and public health interventions to maximise its reach and effectiveness. PMID:28922376

Prevalence and Trends in Domestic Violence in South Korea: Findings From National Surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Jae Yop; Oh, Sehun; Nam, Seok In

2016-05-01

To examine trends in the prevalence of domestic violence since 1997, 1 year prior to the introduction of legislative countermeasures and accompanying services in South Korea, and to analyze what socio-demographic characteristics of perpetrators contribute to spousal violence and whether there were any changes in risk factors over time. This study used two sets of nationally representative household samples: married or cohabiting couples of 1,540 from the 1999 national survey and 3,269 from the 2010 National Survey of Domestic Violence. Frequency analysis was used to measure the prevalence of intimate partner violence (IPV), and cross-tabulation, correlation, and logistic regression analyses were used to look for socio-demographic risk factors of spousal physical violence and patterns of change over time. The frequency analysis showed that the IPV prevalence dropped by approximately 50%, from 34.1% in 1999 to 16.5% in 2010, though it was still higher than many other countries. The cross-tabulation and logistic regression analyses suggested that men with low socio-demographic characteristics were generally more violent, though this tendency did not apply to women. Instead, younger women seemed to be more violent than older women. Last, different levels of household income were associated with different levels of IPV in 2010, but no linear trend was detected. In this study, IPV prevalence trends and risk factors of two different time periods were discussed to provide implications for tackling the IPV problem. Future countermeasures must build on understanding about men with low socio-demographic status and younger women, who were more violent in marital relationships. © The Author(s) 2015.

Trends in mortality and biological stress in a medieval polish urban population.

Science.gov (United States)

Betsinger, Tracy K; DeWitte, Sharon

2017-12-01

Urbanization in pre-modern populations may have had a variety of consequences related to population crowding. However, research on the effects of urbanization have provided inconsistent results regarding the biological impact of this transition on human populations. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that urbanization caused an increase in overall biological stress in a medieval (10th-13th centuries AD) Polish population. A human skeletal sample (n=164) was examined for the presence of porotic hyperostosis, cribra orbitalia, linear enamel hypoplasia, periosteal reaction, and specific infectious diseases. Prevalence rates were compared among three temporal samples: initial urbanization, early urbanization, and later urbanization. Results indicate no significant trends for any of the pathological conditions. Cox proportional hazards analyses, however, revealed a significant increase in the risk of death over time, which supports the hypothesis. These results reflect the necessity of using multiple analyses to address bioarchaeological questions. The lack of significant results from skeletal indicators may be due to an earlier urbanization trend in the population. This study illustrates that the association of urbanization with elevated biological stress is complicated and dependent on various factors, including culture and time period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Back to "once a caesarean: always a caesarean"? A trend analysis in Switzerland.

Science.gov (United States)

Christmann-Schmid, Corina; Raio, Luigi; Scheibner, Katrin; Müller, Martin; Surbek, Daniel

2016-11-01

Caesarean sections (CS) have significantly increased worldwide and a previous CS is nowadays an important and increasingly reported indication to perform a repeat CS. There is a paucity of information in Switzerland on the incidence of repeat CS after previous CS and relationship between the rates of vaginal birth after CS (VBAC). The aim of this study was to analyse the actual trend in VBAC in Switzerland. We performed a retrospective cohort study to analyse the proportion of VBAC among all pregnant women with previous sections which give birth during two time periods (group 1:1998/1999 vs. group 2:2004/2005) in our tertiary care referral hospital and in the annual statistics of Swiss Women's Hospitals (ASF-Statistics). In addition, the proportion of induction of labour after a previous caesarean and its success was analysed. In both cohorts studied, we found a significant decrease of vaginal births (p Switzerland. There was no significant change in labour induction during the study period. While this trend might reflect an increasing demand for safety in pregnancy and childbirth, it concomitantly increases maternal risks of further pregnancies, and women need to be appropriately informed about long-term risks.

Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations in National Parks of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Mao, H.; McGlynn, D. F.; Wu, Z.; Sive, B. C.

2017-12-01

A time scale decomposition technique, the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), has been employed to decompose the time scales in long-term ozone measurement data at 24 US National Park Service sites. Time scales of interest include the annual cycle, variability by large scale climate oscillations, and the long-term trend. The implementation of policy regulations was found to have had a greater effect on sites nearest to urban regions. Ozone daily mean values increased until around the late 1990s followed by decreasing trends during the ensuing decades for sites in the East, southern California, and northwestern Washington. Sites in the Midwest did not experience a reversal of trends from positive to negative until the mid- to late 2000s. The magnitude of the annual amplitude decreased for nine sites and increased for three sites. Stronger decreases in the annual amplitude occurred in the East, with more sites in the East experiencing decreases in annual amplitude than in the West. The date of annual ozone peaks and minimums has changed for 12 sites in total, but those with a shift in peak date did not necessarily have a shift in the trough date. There appeared to be a link between peak dates occurring earlier and a decrease in the annual amplitude. This is likely related to a decrease in ozone titration due to NOx emission reductions. Furthermore, it was found that the shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) regime from positive to negative in 1998-1999 resulting in an increase in occurrences of La Niña-like conditions had the effect of directing more polluted air masses from East Asia to higher latitudes over North America. This change in PDO regime was likely one main factor causing the increase in ozone concentrations on all time scales at an Alaskan site DENA-HQ.

Trends in stunting and overweight in Peruvian pre-schoolers from 1991 to 2011: findings from the Demographic and Health Surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Urke, Helga Bjørnøy; Mittelmark, Maurice B; Valdivia, Martín

2014-11-01

To examine trends in stunting and overweight in Peruvian children, using 2006 WHO Multicentre Growth Reference Study criteria. Trend analyses using nationally representative cross-sectional surveys from Demographic and Health Surveys (1991-2011). We performed logistic regression analyses of stunting and overweight trends in sociodemographic groups (sex, age, urban-rural residence, region, maternal education and household wealth), adjusted for sampling design effects (strata, clusters and sampling weights). Peru. Children aged 0-59 months surveyed in 1991-92 (n 7999), 1996 (n 14 877), 2000 (n 11 754), 2007-08 (n 8232) and 2011 (n 8186). Child stunting declined (F(1, 5149) = 174·8, P ≤ 0·00) and child overweight was stable in the period 1991-2011 (F(1, 5147) = 0·4, P ≤ 0·54). Over the study period, levels of stunting were highest in rural compared with urban areas, the Andean and Amazon regions compared with the Coast, among children of low-educated mothers and among children living in households in the poorest wealth quintile. The trend in overweight rose among males in coastal areas (F(1, 2250) = 4·779, P ≤ 0·029) and among males in the richest wealth quintile (F(1, 1730) = 5·458, P ≤ 0·020). The 2011 levels of stunting and overweight were eight times and three and a half times higher, respectively, than the expected levels from the 2006 WHO growth standards. The trend over the study period in stunting declined in most sociodemographic subgroups. The trend in overweight was stable in most sociodemographic subgroups.

Trends in mammography over time for women with and without chronic disability.

Science.gov (United States)

Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kurtz, Stephen G; Rao, Sowmya R

2015-07-01

Women with disabilities often receive mammograms at lower rates than do nondisabled women, although this disparity varies by disability type and severity. Given the implementation of disability civil rights laws in the early 1990s, we examined whether disability disparities in mammogram use have diminished over time. We analyzed National Health Interview Survey responses of civilian, noninstitutionalized United States female residents 50 to 74 years old from selected years between 1998 and 2010. We identified seven chronic disability types using self-reported functional impairments, activity/participation limitations, and expected duration. We conducted bivariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses examining associations of self-reported mammogram use within the previous two years with sociodemographic factors and disability. Most chronic disability rates rose over time. The most common disability was movement difficulties, with rates increasing from 35.6% (1998) to 39.8% (2010). Mammogram rates for all women remained relatively stable over time, ranging from 72% to 75%. Bivariable analyses generally found statistically significantly lower mammogram rates for women with disability versus nondisabled women. Over time, disparities grew significantly between women with any basic action difficulty or complex activity limitation and nondisabled women (pdisability. Little has changed since 1998 in mammogram rates for women with versus without disabilities. Women with certain disabilities continue to experience disparities in mammography testing.

Analysis of the development trend of China’s business administration based on time series

OpenAIRE

Jiang Rui

2016-01-01

On the general direction of the economic system, China is in a crucial period of the establishment of the modern enterprise system and reform of the macroeconomic system, and a lot of high-quality business administration talents are required to make China’s economy be stably developed. This paper carries out time series analysis of the development situation of China’s business administration major: on the whole, the society currently presents an upward trend on the demand for the business adm...

Local Vegetation Trends in the Sahel of Mali and Senegal Using Long Time Series FAPAR Satellite Products and Field Measurement (1982–2010

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Martin Brandt

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Local vegetation trends in the Sahel of Mali and Senegal from Geoland Version 1 (GEOV1 (5 km and the third generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS3g (8 km Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR time series are studied over 29 years. For validation and interpretation of observed greenness trends, two methods are applied: (1 a qualitative approach using in-depth knowledge of the study areas and (2 a quantitative approach by time series of biomass observations and rainfall data. Significant greening trends from 1982 to 2010 are consistently observed in both GEOV1 and GIMMS3g FAPAR datasets. Annual rainfall increased significantly during the observed time period, explaining large parts of FAPAR variations at a regional scale. Locally, GEOV1 data reveals a heterogeneous pattern of vegetation change, which is confirmed by long-term ground data and site visits. The spatial variability in the observed vegetation trends in the Sahel area are mainly caused by varying tree- and land-cover, which are controlled by human impact, soil and drought resilience. A large proportion of the positive trends are caused by the increment in leaf biomass of woody species that has almost doubled since the 1980s due to a tree cover regeneration after a dry-period. This confirms the re-greening of the Sahel, however, degradation is also present and sometimes obscured by greening. GEOV1 as compared to GIMMS3g made it possible to better characterize the spatial pattern of trends and identify the degraded areas in the study region.

Time trends in prostate cancer surgery: data from an Internet-based multicentre database.

Science.gov (United States)

Schostak, Martin; Baumunk, Daniel; Jagota, Anita; Klopf, Christian; Winter, Alexander; Schäfers, Sebastian; Kössler, Robert; Brennecke, Volker; Fischer, Tom; Hagel, Susanne; Höchel, Steffen; Jäkel, Dierk; Lehsnau, Mike; Krege, Susanne; Rüffert, Bernd; Pretzer, Jana; Becht, Eduard; Zegenhagen, Thomas; Miller, Kurt; Weikert, Steffen

2012-02-01

To report our experience with an Internet-based multicentre database that enables tumour documentation, as well as the collection of quality-related parameters and follow-up data, in surgically treated patients with prostate cancer. The system was used to assess the quality of prostate cancer surgery and to analyze possible time-dependent trends in the quality of care. An Internet-based database system enabled a standardized collection of treatment data and clinical findings from the participating urological centres for the years 2005-2009. An analysis was performed aiming to evaluate relevant patient characteristics (age, pathological tumour stage, preoperative International Index of Erectile Function-5 score), intra-operative parameters (operating time, percentage of nerve-sparing operations, complication rate, transfusion rate, number of resected lymph nodes) and postoperative parameters (hospitalization time, re-operation rate, catheter indwelling time). Mean values were calculated and compared for each annual cohort from 2005 to 2008. The overall survival rate was also calculated for a subgroup of the Berlin patients. A total of 914, 1120, 1434 and 1750 patients submitted to radical prostatectomy in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 were documented in the database. The mean age at the time of surgery remained constant (66 years) during the study period. More than half the patients already had erectile dysfunction before surgery (median International Index of Erectile Function-5 score of 19-20). During the observation period, there was a decrease in the percentage of pT2 tumours (1% in 2005; 64% in 2008) and a slight increase in the percentage of patients with lymph node metastases (8% in 2005; 10% in 2008). No time trend was found for the operating time (142-155 min) or the percentage of nerve-sparing operations (72-78% in patients without erectile dysfunction). A decreasing frequency was observed for the parameters: blood transfusions (1.9% in 2005; 0.5% in 2008

Decreasing pH trend estimated from 25-yr time series of carbonate parameters in the western North Pacific

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Midorikawa, Takashi; Ishii, Masao; Sasano, Daisuke; Kosugi, Naohiro (Geochemical Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (Japan)), e-mail: midorika@mri-jma.go.jp; Saito, Shu (Geochemical Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Institute of Observational Research for Global Change (IORGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka (Japan)); Motoi, Tatsuo (Oceanographic Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan)); Kamiya, Hitomi; Nakadate, Akira; Nemoto, Kazuhiro (Global Environment and Marine Dept., Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo (Japan)); Inoue, Hisayuki Y. (Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo (Japan))

2010-11-15

We estimated long-term trends of ocean acidification in surface waters in latitudinal zones from 3 deg N to 33 deg N along the repeat hydrographic line at 137 deg E in the western North Pacific Ocean. Estimates were based on the observational records of oceanic CO{sub 2} partial pressure and related surface properties over the last two decades. The computed pH time series both for 25 yr in winter (late January to early February) and for 21 yr in summer (June-July) exhibited significant decreasing trends in the extensive subtropical to equatorial zones, with interannual variations that were larger in summer. The calculated rates of pH decrease ranged from 0.0015 to 0.0021 yr-1 (average, 0.0018 +- 0.0002 yr-1) in winter and from 0.0008 to 0.0019 yr-1 (average, 0.0013 +- 0.0005 yr-1 ) in summer. The thermodynamic effects of rising sea surface temperature (SST) accounted for up to 44% (average, 15%) of the trend of pH decrease in the subtropical region in winter, whereas a trend of decreasing SST slowed the pH decrease in the northern subtropical region (around 25 deg N) in summer. We used the results from recent trends to evaluate future possible thermodynamic changes in the upper ocean carbonate system

Characteristic Trend Analysis of Cancer Patients Hospitalized in Shanxi Tumor Hospital for the First Time during 2001 and 2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wen-Li; Wang, Yan; Han, Cun-Zhi

2015-01-01

To observe and analyze the characteristic trend of cancer patients hospitalized for the first time in Shanxi Tumor Hospital from 2001 to 2010, clinical data including case number, age, gender, and frequency of different tumor occurrences were collected and statistically analyzed. (i) From 2001 to 2010, the number of cancer patients hospitalized for the first time increased by 1.3-fold; (ii) The patient overall average age also increased from 51.8 to 54.4, for males from 55.5 to 58.7 and females from 48.4 to 51.1, respectively. (iii) Male patients accounted for 43-48% and females accounted for 52-57% of the total. The percentage of female patients was higher than that of male patients in every year and showed an upward trend over the years, while that of the males showed a downward trend (χ2 =7.031, p=0.008); (iv) Among the top 6 most common cancers, lung, cervical, esophageal, colorectal and breast cancers tended to increase over the years (ppatients hospitalized for the first time during the past 10 years increased year by year, and was higher for female than male; (ii) the average age of patients increased year after year and was greater for male than female; (iii) the number of patients with lung cancer, cervical cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer and breast cancer increased over years.

Parametric neutronic analyses related to burnup credit cask design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parks, C.V.

1989-01-01

The consideration of spent fuel histories (burnup credit) in the design of spent fuel shipping casks will result in cost savings and public risk benefits in the overall fuel transportation system. The purpose of this paper is to describe the depletion and criticality analyses performed in conjunction with and supplemental to the referenced analysis. Specifically, the objectives are to indicate trends in spent fuel isotopic composition with burnup and decay time; provide spent fuel pin lattice values as a function of burnup, decay time, and initial enrichment; demonstrate the variation of k eff for infinite arrays of spent fuel assemblies separated by generic cask basket designs (borated and unborated) of varying thicknesses; and verify the potential cask reactivity margin available with burnup credit via analysis with generic cask models

Comparative Analysis of Upper Ocean Heat Content Variability from Ensemble Operational Ocean Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Yan; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Boyer, Tim; Ferry, Nicolas; Good, Simon; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Rienecker, Michele; Rosati, Tony; Yin, Yonghong; Kumar, Arun

2012-01-01

Upper ocean heat content (HC) is one of the key indicators of climate variability on many time-scales extending from seasonal to interannual to long-term climate trends. For example, HC in the tropical Pacific provides information on thermocline anomalies that is critical for the longlead forecast skill of ENSO. Since HC variability is also associated with SST variability, a better understanding and monitoring of HC variability can help us understand and forecast SST variability associated with ENSO and other modes such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An accurate ocean initialization of HC anomalies in coupled climate models could also contribute to skill in decadal climate prediction. Errors, and/or uncertainties, in the estimation of HC variability can be affected by many factors including uncertainties in surface forcings, ocean model biases, and deficiencies in data assimilation schemes. Changes in observing systems can also leave an imprint on the estimated variability. The availability of multiple operational ocean analyses (ORA) that are routinely produced by operational and research centers around the world provides an opportunity to assess uncertainties in HC analyses, to help identify gaps in observing systems as they impact the quality of ORAs and therefore climate model forecasts. A comparison of ORAs also gives an opportunity to identify deficiencies in data assimilation schemes, and can be used as a basis for development of real-time multi-model ensemble HC monitoring products. The OceanObs09 Conference called for an intercomparison of ORAs and use of ORAs for global ocean monitoring. As a follow up, we intercompared HC variations from ten ORAs -- two objective analyses based on in-situ data only and eight model analyses based on ocean data assimilation systems. The mean, annual cycle, interannual variability and longterm trend of HC have

Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Suhaila, Jamaludin; Yusop, Zulkifli

2017-06-01

Most of the trend analysis that has been conducted has not considered the existence of a change point in the time series analysis. If these occurred, then the trend analysis will not be able to detect an obvious increasing or decreasing trend over certain parts of the time series. Furthermore, the lack of discussion on the possible factors that influenced either the decreasing or the increasing trend in the series needs to be addressed in any trend analysis. Hence, this study proposes to investigate the trends, and change point detection of mean, maximum and minimum temperature series, both annually and seasonally in Peninsular Malaysia and determine the possible factors that could contribute to the significance trends. In this study, Pettitt and sequential Mann-Kendall (SQ-MK) tests were used to examine the occurrence of any abrupt climate changes in the independent series. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature series suggested that most of the change points in Peninsular Malaysia were detected during the years 1996, 1997 and 1998. These detection points captured by Pettitt and SQ-MK tests are possibly related to climatic factors, such as El Niño and La Niña events. The findings also showed that the majority of the significant change points that exist in the series are related to the significant trend of the stations. Significant increasing trends of annual and seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures in Peninsular Malaysia were found with a range of 2-5 °C/100 years during the last 32 years. It was observed that the magnitudes of the increasing trend in minimum temperatures were larger than the maximum temperatures for most of the studied stations, particularly at the urban stations. These increases are suspected to be linked with the effect of urban heat island other than El Niño event.

Stratospheric ozone profile and total ozone trends derived from the SAGE I and SAGE II data

Science.gov (United States)

Mccormick, M. P.; Veiga, Robert E.; Chu, William P.

1992-01-01

Global trends in both stratospheric column ozone and as a function of altitude are derived on the basis of SAGE I/II ozone data from the period 1979-1991. A statistical model containing quasi-biennial, seasonal, and semiannual oscillations, a linear component, and a first-order autoregressive noise process was fit to the time series of SAGE I/II monthly zonal mean data. The linear trend in column ozone above 17-km altitude, averaged between 65 deg S and 65 deg N, is -0.30 +/-0.19 percent/yr, or -3.6 percent over the time period February 1979 through April 1991. The data show that the column trend above 17 km is nearly zero in the tropics and increases towards the high latitudes with values of -0.6 percent/yr at 60 deg S and -0.35 percent/yr at 60 deg N. Both these results are in agreement with the recent TOMS results. The profile trend analyses show that the column ozone losses are occurring below 25 km, with most of the loss coming from the region between 17 and 20 km. Negative trend values on the order of -2 percent/yr are found at 17 km in midlatitudes.

Disparities in dietary habits and physical activity in Denmark and trends from 1995 to 2008

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Groth, Margit Velsing; Sørensen, Mette Rosenlund; Matthiessen, Jeppe

2014-01-01

Concentration Index" did not change any of the conclusions. Gender also influenced diet quality. Men had dietary and alcohol habits furthest away from the guidelines. A trend of healthier habits was also found over the time period. CONCLUSIONS SOCIAL DISPARITIES IN DIET QUALITY AND LEISURE-TIME PHYSICAL......In all analyses, both diet quality and physical inactivity differed systematically with educational group and with healthier habits for the group with long education. Only for alcohol habits was an opposite social gradient seen. Disparities persisted over all time periods. The analyses using "The...... ACTIVITY WERE SEEN FOR ALL EXAMINED TIME PERIODS AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THEREFORE, THERE IS NO SUPPORT TO THE HYPOTHESIS OF WIDENING SOCIAL DISPARITIES IN ALL EDUCATIONAL GROUPS SOME IMPROVEMENT OF DIETARY HABITS WAS FOUND, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE FOODS WHERE COMPREHENSIVE INITIATIVES HAD TAKEN PLACE...

Time trends, improvements and national auditing of rectal cancer management over an 18-year period.

Science.gov (United States)

Kodeda, K; Johansson, R; Zar, N; Birgisson, H; Dahlberg, M; Skullman, S; Lindmark, G; Glimelius, B; Påhlman, L; Martling, A

2015-09-01

The main aims were to explore time trends in the management and outcome of patients with rectal cancer in a national cohort and to evaluate the possible impact of national auditing on overall outcomes. A secondary aim was to provide population-based data for appraisal of external validity in selected patient series. Data from the Swedish ColoRectal Cancer Registry with virtually complete national coverage were utilized in this cohort study on 29 925 patients with rectal cancer diagnosed between 1995 and 2012. Of eligible patients, nine were excluded. During the study period, overall, relative and disease-free survival increased. Postoperative mortality after 30 and 90 days decreased to 1.7% and 2.9%. The 5-year local recurrence rate dropped to 5.0%. Resection margins improved, as did peri-operative blood loss despite more multivisceral resections being performed. Fewer patients underwent palliative resection and the proportion of non-operated patients increased. The proportions of temporary and permanent stoma formation increased. Preoperative radiotherapy and chemoradiotherapy became more common as did multidisciplinary team conferences. Variability in rectal cancer management between healthcare regions diminished over time when new aspects of patient care were audited. There have been substantial changes over time in the management of patients with rectal cancer, reflected in improved outcome. Much indirect evidence indicates that auditing matters, but without a control group it is not possible to draw firm conclusions regarding the possible impact of a quality control registry on faster shifts in time trends, decreased variability and improvements. Registry data were made available for reference. Colorectal Disease © 2015 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

Health promotion in primary and secondary schools in Denmark: time trends and associations with schools' and students' characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Nabe-Nielsen, Kirsten; Krølner, Rikke; Mortensen, Laust Hvas; Jørgensen, Marie Birk; Diderichsen, Finn

2015-02-07

Schools are important arenas for interventions among children as health promoting initiatives in childhood is expected to have substantial influence on health and well-being in adulthood. In countries with compulsory school attention, all children could potentially benefit from health promotion at the school level regardless of socioeconomic status or other background factors. The first aim was to elucidate time trends in the number and types of school health promoting activities by describing the number and type of health promoting activities in primary and secondary schools in Denmark. The second aim was to investigate which characteristics of schools and students that are associated with participation in many (≥3) versus few (0-2) health promoting activities during the preceding 2-3 years. We used cross-sectional data from the 2006- and 2010-survey of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study. The headmasters answered questions about the school's participation in health promoting activities and about school size, proportion of ethnic minorities, school facilities available for health promoting activities, competing problems and resources at the school and in the neighborhood. Students provided information about their health-related behavior and exposure to bullying which was aggregated to the school level. A total of 74 schools were available for analyses in 2006 and 69 in 2010. We used chi-square test, t-test, and binary logistic regression to analyze time trends and differences between schools engaging in many versus few health promoting activities. The percentage of schools participating in ≥3 health promoting activities was 63% in 2006 and 61% in 2010. Also the mean number of health promoting activities was similar (3.14 vs. 3.07). The activities most frequently targeted physical activity (73% and 85%) and bullying (78% and 67%). Schools' participation in anti-smoking activities was significantly higher in 2006 compared with 2010 (46% vs. 29

Analysing Stable Time Series

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Adler, Robert

1997-01-01

We describe how to take a stable, ARMA, time series through the various stages of model identification, parameter estimation, and diagnostic checking, and accompany the discussion with a goodly number...

Time Trends in Breast Cancer Among Indian Women Population: An Analysis of Population Based Cancer Registry Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaturvedi, Meesha; Vaitheeswaran, K; Satishkumar, K; Das, Priyanka; Stephen, S; Nandakumar, A

2015-12-01

The trends observed in cancer breast among Indian women are an indication of effect of changing lifestyle in population. To draw an appropriate inference regarding the trends of a particular type of cancer in a country, it is imperative to glance at the reliable data collected by Population Based Cancer Registries over a period of time. To give an insight of changing trends of breast cancer which have taken place over a period of time among women in Cancer Registries of India. Breast Cancer trends for invasive breast cancer in women in Indian Registries have varied during the selected period. Occurrence of breast cancers has also shown geographical variation in India. This data was collected by means of a 'Standard Core Proforma' designed by NCRP conforming to the data fields as suggested by International norms. The Proforma was filled by trained Registry workers based on interview/ hospital medical records/ supplementing data by inputs from treating surgeons/radiation oncologists/involved physicians/pathologists. The contents of the Proforma are entered into specifically created software and transmitted electronically to the coordinating center at Bangalore. The registries contributing to more number of years of data are called as older registries, while other recently established registries are called newer registries. While there has been an increase recorded in breast cancer in most of the registries, some of them have recorded an insignificant increase. Comparison of Age Adjusted Rates (AARs) among Indian Registries has been carried out after which trends observed in populations covered by Indian Registries are depicted. A variation in broad age groups of females and the proneness of females developing breast cancer over the period 1982 to 2010 has been shown. Comparisons of Indian registries with International counterparts have also been carried out. There are marked changes in incidence rates of cancer breast which have occurred in respective registries in a

Evaluation of surface air temperature trend and climate change in the north - east of I. R. of Iran

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alireza, Shahabfar

2004-01-01

In this paper maximum, minimum and mean surface air temperature recorded, analysed to reveal spatial and temporal patterns of long-term trends, change points, significant warming (cooling) periods and linear trend per decade. According to this research summer minimum temperatures have generally increased at a larger rate than in spring and autumn minimum temperatures. On the other hand, nighttime warming rates of spring and summer are generally stronger than those that exist in spring and summer daytime temperatures. Considering the significant increasing trends in annual, spring and summer temperatures, it is seen that night-time warming rates are stronger in the northern regions, which are characterized by the Khorasan Province macro climate type: a very hot summer, a relatively hot and late spring and early autumn, and a moderate winter. We have seriously considered the strong warming trends in spring and summer and thus likely in annual minimum air temperatures. It is very likely that significant and very rapid night-time warming trends over much of the province can be related to the widespread, rapid and increased urbanization in Khorasan Province, in addition to long-term and global effects of the human-induced climate change on air temperatures. (Author)

The Hotel as the Holiday/Stay destination: Trends and Innovations.

OpenAIRE

Hackett, Gereva; Melia, Detta

2012-01-01

This paper analyses trends in the international hotel industry and provides insights into the trends that are most likely to influence future business success. Trends, such as, design, social and lifestyle changes, the eco-hotel, the historically significant hotel, the sports hotel, the health spa, the quirky hotel, the boutique hotel and the fashionable hotel which are differentiating the traditional hotel product are discussed. This paper is based on primary and secondary research providing...

Suicide epidemics: the impact of newly emerging methods on overall suicide rates - a time trends study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chang Shu-Sen

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The impact of newly emerging, popular suicide methods on overall rates of suicide has not previously been investigated systematically. Understanding these effects may have important implications for public health surveillance. We examine the emergence of three novel methods of suicide by gassing in the 20th and 21st centuries and determine the impact of emerging methods on overall suicide rates. Methods We studied the epidemic rises in domestic coal gas (1919-1935, England and Wales, motor vehicle exhaust gas (1975-1992, England and Wales and barbecue charcoal gas (1999-2006, Taiwan suicide using Poisson and joinpoint regression models. Joinpoint regression uses contiguous linear segments and join points (points at which trends change to describe trends in incidence. Results Epidemic increases in the use of new methods of suicide were generally associated with rises in overall suicide rates of between 23% and 71%. The recent epidemic of barbecue charcoal suicides in Taiwan was associated with the largest rise in overall rates (40-50% annual rise, whereas the smallest rise was seen for car exhaust gassing in England and Wales (7% annual rise. Joinpoint analyses were only feasible for car exhaust and charcoal burning suicides; these suggested an impact of the emergence of car exhaust suicides on overall suicide rates in both sexes in England and Wales. However there was no statistical evidence of a change in the already increasing overall suicide trends when charcoal burning suicides emerged in Taiwan, possibly due to the concurrent economic recession. Conclusions Rapid rises in the use of new sources of gas for suicide were generally associated with increases in overall suicide rates. Suicide prevention strategies should include strengthening local and national surveillance for early detection of novel suicide methods and implementation of effective media guidelines and other appropriate interventions to limit the spread of

Epidemiology and trends in non-fatal self-harm in three centres in England: 2000-2007.

Science.gov (United States)

Bergen, Helen; Hawton, Keith; Waters, Keith; Cooper, Jayne; Kapur, Navneet

2010-12-01

Self-harm is a common reason for presentation to a general hospital, with a strong association with suicide. Trends in self-harm are an important indicator of community psychopathology, with resource implications for health services and relevance to suicide prevention policy. Previous reports in the UK have come largely from single centres. To investigate trends in non-fatal self-harm in six general hospitals in three centres from the Multicentre Study of Self-harm in England, and to relate these to trends in suicide. Data on self-harm presentations to general hospital emergency departments in Oxford (one), Manchester (three) and Derby (two) were analysed over the 8-year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2007. Rates of self-harm declined significantly over 8 years for males in three centres (Oxford: -14%; Manchester: -25%; Derby: -18%) and females in two centres (Oxford: -2% (not significant); Manchester: -13%; Derby: -17%), in keeping with national trends in suicide. A decreasing proportion and number of episodes involved self-poisoning alone, and an increasing proportion and number involved other self-injury (e.g. hanging, jumping, traffic related). Episodes involving self-cutting alone showed a slight decrease in numbers over time. Trends in alcohol use at the time of self-harm and repetition within 1 year were stable. There were decreasing rates of non-fatal self-harm over the study period that paralleled trends in suicide in England. This was reflected mainly in a decline in emergency department presentations for self-poisoning.

Real-time on-line space research laboratory environment monitoring with off-line trend and prediction analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

2007-06-01

With the International Space Station currently operational, a significant amount of acceleration data is being down-linked, processed and analyzed daily on the ground on a continuous basis for the space station reduced gravity environment characterization, the vehicle design requirements verification and science data collection. To help understand the impact of the unique spacecraft environment on the science data, an artificial intelligence monitoring system was developed, which detects in near real time any change in the reduced gravity environment susceptible to affect the on-going experiments. Using a dynamic graphical display, the monitoring system allows science teams, at any time and any location, to see the active vibration disturbances, such as pumps, fans, compressor, crew exercise, re-boost and extra-vehicular activities that might impact the reduced gravity environment the experiments are exposed to. The monitoring system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many increments (an increment usually lasts 6 months) collected onboard the station for selected disturbances. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential systems failures. The monitoring system has two operating modes: online and offline. Both near real-time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line detection and trend analysis are discussed in this paper.

Time-trend of melanoma screening practice by primary care physicians: A meta-regression analysis

OpenAIRE

Valachis, Antonis; Mauri, Davide; Karampoiki, Vassiliki; Polyzos, Nikolaos P; Cortinovis, Ivan; Koukourakis, Georgios; Zacharias, Georgios; Xilomenos, Apostolos; Tsappi, Maria; Casazza, Giovanni

2009-01-01

Objective To assess whether the proportion of primary care physicians implementing full body skin examination (FBSE) to screen for melanoma changed over time. Methods Meta-regression analyses of available data. Data Sources: MEDLINE, ISI, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Results Fifteen studies surveying 10,336 physicians were included in the analyses. Overall, 15%?82% of them reported to perform FBSE to screen for melanoma. The proportion of physicians using FBSE screening ten...

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF FORECASTING MODELS FOR TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES DOES COMPLEX MODEL ALWAYS YIELD BETTER FORECAST THAN SIMPLE MODELS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suhartono Suhartono

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Many business and economic time series are non-stationary time series that contain trend and seasonal variations. Seasonality is a periodic and recurrent pattern caused by factors such as weather, holidays, or repeating promotions. A stochastic trend is often accompanied with the seasonal variations and can have a significant impact on various forecasting methods. In this paper, we will investigate and compare some forecasting methods for modeling time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. These methods are Winter's, Decomposition, Time Series Regression, ARIMA and Neural Networks models. In this empirical research, we study on the effectiveness of the forecasting performance, particularly to answer whether a complex method always give a better forecast than a simpler method. We use a real data, that is airline passenger data. The result shows that the more complex model does not always yield a better result than a simpler one. Additionally, we also find the possibility to do further research especially the use of hybrid model by combining some forecasting method to get better forecast, for example combination between decomposition (as data preprocessing and neural network model.

Time-trends and causes of infant, neonatal and postneonatal mortality in Mexico, 1980-1990

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SUSAN VANDALE

1997-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. This article analyzes the time-trends and causes of infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality in Mexico during the 1980’s. Material and methods. Data on infant deaths came from yearly tabulations (1980 to 1990 published by the Mexican government. Time-trends of mortality rates were determined by simple linear regression models. The parallelism test was performed for evaluating similarities in trends in neonatal and postneonatal mortality rates by causes. Results. During the 1980’s, infant mortality rates in Mexico declined from 40.4 to 31.1/1 000 (ß= -0.791. Postneonatal mortality rates showed a strong decrease (ß= -0.892, while neonatal mortality rates were almost stationary (ß= 0.089. Significant rate decreases were observed for Intestinal infections, Pneumonia and influenza and all other causes while Certain perinatal problems, Congenital defects and Nutritional deficiencies increased. No changes were observed in Acute respiratory infections. The neonatal proportional mortality showed an incremental trend accounting for 37.6% in 1980 and ascending to 48.8% in 1990 of the mortality in the first year of life. Conclusions.This analysis indicates that the reduction in infant mortality in Mexico during the 1980’s was due to declining postneonatal mortality while neonatal mortality rates remain almost unchanged.Objetivo. Analizar las tendencias seculares de las tasas de mortalidad infantil (TMI neonatal (TMN y posneonatal (TMP en México de 1980-1990. Material y métodos. La información estudiada fue proporcionada por el Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática. Las tendencias de los indicadores fueron determinadas mediante modelos de regresión lineal y se efectuaron pruebas de paralelismo para evaluar la semejanza en pendientes de TMN y TMP por causas. Resultados. Las TMI se redujeron de 40.4 a 31.1/1 000, (ß= -0.791. Las TMP mostraron un decremento significativo (ß= -0.892, mientras que las TMN

Ventilation coefficient trends in the recent decades over four major ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

viz., Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata and Chennai is analysed to study the trends and long term ... terized by their economic development and large ... in ventilation coefficient over different regions in. India as ... VC trends in recent decades over major Indian Metropolitan cities ..... M 2009 A case study of atmospheric boundary layer.

Automatic trend estimation

CERN Document Server

Vamos¸, C˘alin

2013-01-01

Our book introduces a method to evaluate the accuracy of trend estimation algorithms under conditions similar to those encountered in real time series processing. This method is based on Monte Carlo experiments with artificial time series numerically generated by an original algorithm. The second part of the book contains several automatic algorithms for trend estimation and time series partitioning. The source codes of the computer programs implementing these original automatic algorithms are given in the appendix and will be freely available on the web. The book contains clear statement of the conditions and the approximations under which the algorithms work, as well as the proper interpretation of their results. We illustrate the functioning of the analyzed algorithms by processing time series from astrophysics, finance, biophysics, and paleoclimatology. The numerical experiment method extensively used in our book is already in common use in computational and statistical physics.

De-trending of turbulence measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

2006-01-01

contribution to the wind speed turbulence intensity for a number of representative locations. A linear de-trending process has been implemented during indexing of the time-series. The observed de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. This reduction...... depends primarily on site characteristics and local mean wind speed variations. Reduced turbulence intensity will result in lower design fatigue loads. This aspect of de-trending is discussed by use of a simple heuristic load model. Finally an empirical model for de-trending wind resource data...

Twenty four year time trends in fats and cholesterol intake by adolescents. Warsaw Adolescents Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charzewska Jadwiga

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine time trends (1982–2006 in total fat intake and changes in fatty acid structure intake in adolescents from Warsaw in view of increasing prevalence of obesity. Data come from four successive surveys randomly selected samples of adolescents (aged 11–15 years old, from Warsaw region. In total 9747 pupils have been examined, with response rate varying from 55% to 87% depending on year. Surveys were done always in the spring season of the year. Food intake was assessed by using 24 hours recall method of consumption by the pupils all products, including enriched, dishes and beverages as well as diet supplements, in the last 24 hours preceding the examination. The content of energy and nutrients was calculated by means of own computer softwares (DIET 2 and 4, taking into account successive revisions of the tables of food composition and nutritional values, as well as current Polish DRI. A significant decreasing trend was found in intake of total fat, of saturated fatty acids (SFA and cholesterol. The percentage of energy from total fat, also decreased both in boys (to 35,1% and girls (to 33,7%, what failed to reach the desired level below 30% of energy from fat which is recommended. Also significant decrease of SFA consumption was not satisfactory enough to approach the values <10% of energy recommended as was from 13% to 15%. Decreasing trends in fat intake was not in accordance with the trend in obesity prevalence in the adolescents as average BMI is going up. To stabilize the health-oriented changes especially in the diets of adolescents, further activity is desired from professionals working with prevention of adolescents obesity.

An analysis of socio-demographic patterns in child malnutrition trends using Ghana demographic and health survey data in the period 1993-2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Amugsi, Dickson A; Mittelmark, Maurice B; Lartey, Anna

2013-10-16

A small but growing body of research indicates that progress in reducing child malnutrition is substantially uneven from place to place, even down to the district level within countries. Yet child malnutrition prevalence and trend estimates available for public health planning are mostly available only at the level of global regions and/or at country level. To support carefully targeted intervention to reduce child malnutrition, public health planners and policy-makers require access to more refined prevalence data and trend analyses than are presently available. Responding to this need in Ghana, this report presents trends in child malnutrition prevalence in socio-demographic groups within the country's geographic regions. The study uses the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS) data. The GDHS are nationally representative cross-sectional surveys that have been carried out in many developing countries. These surveys constitute one of the richest sources of information currently available to examine time trends in child malnutrition. Data from four surveys were used for the analysis: 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008. The results show statistically significant declining trends at the national level for stunting (F (1, 7204) = 7.89, p ≤ .005), underweight (F (1, 7441) = 44.87, p ≤ .001) and wasting (F (1, 7130) = 6.19, p ≤ .013). However, analyses of the sex-specific trends revealed that the declining trends in stunting and wasting were significant among males but not among females. In contrast to the national trend, there were significantly increasing trends in stunting for males (F (1, 2004) = 3.92, p ≤ .048) and females (F (1, 2004) = 4.34, p ≤ .037) whose mothers had higher than primary education, while the trends decreased significantly for males and females whose mothers had no education. At the national level in Ghana, child malnutrition is significantly declining. However, the aggregate national trend masks important deviations in certain socio

Detecting long-term growth trends using tree rings: a critical evaluation of methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Richard L; Groenendijk, Peter; Vlam, Mart; Zuidema, Pieter A

2015-05-01

Tree-ring analysis is often used to assess long-term trends in tree growth. A variety of growth-trend detection methods (GDMs) exist to disentangle age/size trends in growth from long-term growth changes. However, these detrending methods strongly differ in approach, with possible implications for their output. Here, we critically evaluate the consistency, sensitivity, reliability and accuracy of four most widely used GDMs: conservative detrending (CD) applies mathematical functions to correct for decreasing ring widths with age; basal area correction (BAC) transforms diameter into basal area growth; regional curve standardization (RCS) detrends individual tree-ring series using average age/size trends; and size class isolation (SCI) calculates growth trends within separate size classes. First, we evaluated whether these GDMs produce consistent results applied to an empirical tree-ring data set of Melia azedarach, a tropical tree species from Thailand. Three GDMs yielded similar results - a growth decline over time - but the widely used CD method did not detect any change. Second, we assessed the sensitivity (probability of correct growth-trend detection), reliability (100% minus probability of detecting false trends) and accuracy (whether the strength of imposed trends is correctly detected) of these GDMs, by applying them to simulated growth trajectories with different imposed trends: no trend, strong trends (-6% and +6% change per decade) and weak trends (-2%, +2%). All methods except CD, showed high sensitivity, reliability and accuracy to detect strong imposed trends. However, these were considerably lower in the weak or no-trend scenarios. BAC showed good sensitivity and accuracy, but low reliability, indicating uncertainty of trend detection using this method. Our study reveals that the choice of GDM influences results of growth-trend studies. We recommend applying multiple methods when analysing trends and encourage performing sensitivity and reliability

Performance time transformed by count as a determinant of difficulty in the Shotokan karate Heian kata set.

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, C; Lawrence, J M

1997-06-01

Black-belt subjects (10 men) were timed on each of the five Heian kata and the scores transformed by count. Trend analyses showed that increased performance time was significantly related to assumed complexity in Heian ranking.

Spatial correlation in precipitation trends in the Brazilian Amazon

Science.gov (United States)

Buarque, Diogo Costa; Clarke, Robin T.; Mendes, Carlos Andre Bulhoes

2010-06-01

A geostatistical analysis of variables derived from Amazon daily precipitation records (trends in annual precipitation totals, trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, trend in length of dry spell, trend in number of wet days per year) gave results that are consistent with those previously reported. Averaged over the Brazilian Amazon region as a whole, trends in annual maximum precipitations were slightly negative, the trend in the length of dry spell was slightly positive, and the trend in the number of wet days in the year was slightly negative. For trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, spatial correlation between trends was found to extend up to a distance equivalent to at least half a degree of latitude or longitude, with some evidence of anisotropic correlation. Time trends in annual precipitation were found to be spatially correlated up to at least ten degrees of separation, in both W-E and S-N directions. Anisotropic spatial correlation was strongly evident in time trends in length of dry spell with much stronger evidence of spatial correlation in the W-E direction, extending up to at least five degrees of separation, than in the S-N. Because the time trends analyzed are shown to be spatially correlated, it is argued that methods at present widely used to test the statistical significance of climate trends over time lead to erroneous conclusions if spatial correlation is ignored, because records from different sites are assumed to be statistically independent.

Transit timing observations from Kepler. V. Transit timing variation candidates in the first sixteen months from polynomial models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ford, E.B.; Ragozzine, D.; Holman, M.J.

2012-01-01

Transit timing variations provide a powerful tool for confirming and characterizing transiting planets, as well as detecting non-transiting planets. We report the results of an updated transit timing variation (TTV) analysis for 1481 planet candidates based on transit times measured during...... that several of these planet candidates could be confirmed and perhaps characterized with more detailed TTV analyses using publicly available Kepler observations. For many others, Kepler has observed a long-term TTV trend, but an extended Kepler mission will be required to characterize the system via TTVs. We...

Time-trend analysis and developing a forecasting model for the prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, southwest of Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Mousavizadeh, A; Dastoorpoor, M; Naimi, E; Dohrabpour, K

2018-01-01

This study was designed and implemented to assess the current situation and to estimate the time trend of multiple sclerosis (MS), as well as to explain potential factors associated with such a trend. This longitudinal study was carried out based on analysis of the data from the monitoring and treatment surveillance system for 421 patients with MS in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, Iran, from 1990 to 2015. To this end, curve estimation approach was used to investigate the changes in prevalence and incidence of the disease, and univariate time series model analysis was applied in order to estimate the disease incidence in the next 10 years. The mean and standard deviation of age were 29.78 and 8.5 years at the time of diagnosis, and the mean and 95% confidence interval of age were 29.18 (28.86-30.77) and 29.68 (28.06-31.30) at the time of diagnosis for women and men, respectively. The sex ratio (males to females) was estimated as 3.3, and the prevalence of the disease was estimated as 60.14 in 100,000 people. The diagram of the 35-year trend of the disease indicated three distinct patterns with a tendency to increase in recent years. The prevalence and incidence trend of the disease in the study population is consistent with regional and global changes. Climatic and environmental factors such as extreme weather changes, dust particles, expansion of the application of new industrial materials, and regional wars with potential use of banned weapons are among the issues that may, in part, be able to justify the global and regional changes of the disease. Predictive models indicate a growing trend of the disease, highlighting the need for more regular monitoring of the disease trend in upcoming years. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Technical specifications for monitoring Community trends in zoonotic agents in foodstuffs and animal populations on request from EFSA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borck Høg, Birgitte; Chriél, Mariann; Korsgaard, Helle

of criteria for the selection of the zoonotic agent/animal or food category combinations where trend analyses would be justified. Based on data available from 2004 to 2007, the following combinations are suggested for trend analyses: Salmonella in fresh broiler and pig meat, flocks of laying hens and broilers......Technical specifications are proposed for the monitoring of temporal trends in zoonotic agents in animal and food populations at Community or Member State group level in the framework of Directive 2003/99/EC. Two types of trend monitoring are identified: trend watching, which covers general...

Spatial variability and trends of the rain intensity over Greece

Science.gov (United States)

Kambezidis, H. D.; Larissi, I. K.; Nastos, P. T.; Paliatsos, A. G.

2010-07-01

In this study, the spatial and temporal variability of the mean annual rain intensity in Greece are examined during a 41-year period (1962-2002). The meteorological datasets concern monthly rain amounts (mm) and the respective monthly durations (h) recorded at thirty two meteorological stations of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, which are uniformly distributed on Greek territory, in order to calculate the mean monthly rain intensity. All the rain time series used in the analysis were tested by the application of the short-cut Bartlett test of homogeneity. The spatial distribution of the mean annual rain intensity is studied using the Kriging interpolation method, while the temporal variability, concerning the mean annual rain intensity trends along with their significance (Mann-Kendall test), is analysed. The findings of the analysis show that statistically significant negative trends (95% confidence level) appear mainly in the west sub-regions of Greece, while statistically significant positive trends (95% confidence level) appear in the wider area of Athens and the complex of Cyclades Islands. Further analysis concerning the seasonal rain intensity is needed, because there are different seasonal patterns, taking into account that, convective rain in Greece occurs mainly within the summer season.

Was the economic crisis 1997-1998 responsible for rising suicide rates in East/Southeast Asia? A time-trend analysis for Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Shu-Sen; Gunnell, David; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Lu, Tsung-Hsueh; Cheng, Andrew T A

2009-04-01

In 1997-1998 a widespread economic crisis hit the economies of many East/Southeast Asian countries; its impact on suicide rates across the region has not been systematically documented. We investigated the impact of the Asian economic crisis (1997-1998) on suicide in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand. Suicide and population data for the period 1985-2006 were extracted from the World Health Organisation's mortality database and Taiwanese mortality statistics. Sex-specific age-standardised suicide rates for people aged 15years or above were analysed using joinpoint regression. Trends in divorce, marriage, unemployment, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and alcohol consumption were compared with trends in suicide rates graphically and using time-series analysis. Suicide mortality decreased in the late 1980s and early 1990s but subsequently increased markedly in all countries except Singapore, which had steadily declining suicide rates throughout the study period. Compared to 1997, male rates in 1998 rose by 39% in Japan, 44% in Hong Kong and 45% in Korea; rises in female rates were less marked. Male rates also rose in Thailand, but accurate data were incomplete. The economic crisis was associated with 10,400 more suicides in 1998 compared to 1997 in Japan, Hong Kong and Korea. Similar increases in suicide rates were not seen in Taiwan and Singapore, the two countries where the economic crisis had a smaller impact on GDP and unemployment. Time-series analyses indicated that some of the crisis's impact on male suicides was attributable to increases in unemployment. These findings suggest an association of the Asian economic crisis with a sharp increase in suicide mortality in some, but not all, East/Southeast Asian countries, and that these increases were most closely associated with rises in unemployment.

Trend in active transportation to school among Swiss school children and its associated factors: three cross-sectional surveys 1994, 2000 and 2005

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bringolf-Isler Bettina

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Giving the rising trend in childhood obesity in many countries including Switzerland, strategies to increase physical activity such as promoting active school travel are important. Yet, little is known about time trends of active commuting in Swiss schoolchildren and factors associated with changes in walking and biking to school. Methods Between 1994 and 2005, information about mobility behaviour of children aged 6-14 years was collected within three Swiss population based national travel behaviour surveys. Mode of transport to school was reported for 4244 children. Weighted multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess active school travel time trends and their influencing factors. Results More than 70% of Swiss children walked or biked to school. Nevertheless, the proportion of children biking to school decreased (p = 0.05, linear trend, predominately in urban areas, and motorized transportation increased since 1994 (p = 0.02. Distance to school did not change significantly over time but availability of bikes decreased (p Conclusions Programs to encourage safe biking and to limit car use as mode of transport to school are warranted to stop this trend.

Time trends in dietary fat intake in a sample of German children and adolescents between 2000 and 2010: not quantity, but quality is the issue.

Science.gov (United States)

Libuda, Lars; Alexy, Ute; Kersting, Mathilde

2014-01-14

Dietary fat intake in childhood may influence the risk for developing chronic diseases. The objective of the present study was to examine secular trends in the parameters of fat intake between 2000 and 2010 in a sample of German children and adolescents (n 808) participating in the Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed (DONALD) Study. Dietary data from 4380 3 d weighed dietary records were analysed using repeated-measures regression to determine time trends in fat quantity, i.e. the intake of total fat, and in fat quality, i.e. the ratios of SFA, MUFA and PUFA. In young children (2-3 years) and in adolescents (13-18 years), total fat intake remained stable over time, but decreased by 0·08 % of total energy (%E) per year in 4-12-year-old children. In 2010, median fat intake was at the upper end of the recommendations. SFA intake decreased slightly in 2-3- and 4-12-year-old children by 0·09 and 0·05 %E per year, respectively. MUFA and PUFA intakes remained stable in all the age groups except in adolescents. Here, PUFA intake decreased initially, but increased between 2005 and 2010. In 2010, only between 3 and 18 % of the respective age groups had an intake of SFA or PUFA within the recommendations. In conclusion, fat quantity and quality did not change substantially between 2000 and 2010. Fat quality, in particular, needs to be improved, since a large percentage of our sample did not meet the recommended intakes for SFA and PUFA.

Time-trends, Predictors and Outcome of Emergency Department Utilization for Gout: A Nationwide U.S. Study

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Jasvinder A.; Yu, Shaohua

2016-01-01

Objective To assess gout-related emergency department (ED) utilization/charges and discharge disposition. Methods We used the U.S. National ED Sample (NEDS) data to examine the time-trends in total ED visits and charges and ED-related hospitalizations with gout as the primary diagnosis. We assessed multivariable-adjusted predictors of ED charges and hospitalization for gout-related visits using the 2012 NEDS data. Results There were 180,789, 201,044 and 205,152 ED visits in years 2009, 2010 and 2012 with gout as the primary diagnosis, with total ED charges of $195, $239 and $287 million, respectively; these accounted for 0.14-0.16% of all ED visits. Mean/median 2012 ED charges/visit were $1,398/$956. Of all gout-related ED visits, 7.7% were admitted to the hospital in 2012. Mean/median length of hospital stay was 3.9/2.6 days and mean/median inpatient charge/admission was $22,066/$15,912 in 2012. In multivariable-adjusted analyses, older age, female gender, highest income quartile, being uninsured, metropolitan residence, Western U.S. hospital location, heart disease, renal failure, congestive heart failure (CHF), hypertension, diabetes, osteoarthritis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were associated with higher ED charges. Older age, Northeast location, Metropolitan teaching hospital, higher income quartile, heart disease, renal failure, CHF, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, diabetes, COPD, and osteoarthritis were associated with higher odds where as self-pay insurance status was associated with lower odds of hospitalization following an ED visit for gout. Conclusions Absolute ED utilization and charges for gout increased over time, but relative utilization remained stable. Modifiable comorbidity factors associated with higher gout-related utilization should be targeted to reduce morbidity and healthcare utilization. PMID:27134260

Real-Time Soils Characterization and Analyses Systems Used at Ohio Closure Sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roybal, Lyle Gene; Carpenter, Michael Vance; Giles, John Robert; Hartwell, John Kelvin; Danahy, R.

2003-01-01

The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) and the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP) have jointly developed a field-deployed analytical system to rapidly scan, characterize, and analyze surface soil contamination. The basic system consists of a sodium iodide (NaI) spectrometer and global positioning system (GPS) hardware. This hardware can be deployed from any of four different platforms depending on the scope of the survey at hand. These platforms range from a large tractor-based unit (the RTRAK) used to survey large, relatively flat areas to a hand-pushed unit where maneuverability is important, to an excavator mounted system used to scan pits and trenches. The mobile sodium iodide concept was initially developed by the FEMP to provide pre-screening analyses for soils contaminated with uranium, thorium, and radium. The initial study is documented in the RTRAK Applicability Study and provides analyses supporting the field usage of the concept. The RTRAK system produced data that required several days of post-processing and analyses to generate an estimation of field coverage and activity levels. The INEEL has provided integrated engineering, computer hardware and software support to greatly streamline the data acquisition and analysis process to the point where real-time activity and coverage maps are available to the field technicians. On-line analyses have been added to automatically convert GPS data to Ohio State-Plane coordinates, examine and correct collected spectra for energy calibration drifts common to NaI spectrometers, and strip spectra in regions of interest to provide moisture corrected activity levels for total uranium, thorium-232, and radium-226. Additionally, the software provides a number of checks and alarms to alert operators that a hand-examination of spectral data in a particular area may be required. The FEMP has estimated that this technology has produced projected site savings in excess of $34M

Trends in mouth cancer incidence in Mumbai, India (1995-2009): An age-period-cohort analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Shridhar, Krithiga; Rajaraman, Preetha; Koyande, Shravani; Parikh, Purvish M; Chaturvedi, Pankaj; Dhillon, Preet K; Dikshit, Rajesh P

2016-06-01

Despite tobacco control and health promotion efforts, the incidence rates of mouth cancer are increasing across most regions in India. Analysing the influence of age, time period and birth cohort on these secular trends can point towards underlying factors and help identify high-risk populations for improved cancer control programmes. We evaluated secular changes in mouth cancer incidence among men and women aged 25-74 years in Mumbai between 1995 and 2009 by calculating age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates (ASR). We estimated the age-adjusted linear trend for annual percent change (EAPC) using the drift parameter, and conducted an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to quantify recent time trends and to evaluate the significance of birth cohort and calendar period effects. Over the 15-year period, age-standardized incidence rates of mouth cancer in men in Mumbai increased by 2.7% annually (95% CI:1.9 to 3.4), pMumbai cancer registry indicate a significant linear increase of mouth cancer incidence from 1995 to 2009 in men, which was driven by younger men aged 25-49 years, and a non-significant upward trend in similarly aged younger women. Health promotion efforts should more effectively target younger cohorts. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Quantifying Shapes: Mathematical Techniques for Analysing Visual Representations of Sound and Music

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Genevieve L. Noyce

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Research on auditory-visual correspondences has a long tradition but innovative experimental paradigms and analytic tools are sparse. In this study, we explore different ways of analysing real-time visual representations of sound and music drawn by both musically-trained and untrained individuals. To that end, participants' drawing responses captured by an electronic graphics tablet were analysed using various regression, clustering, and classification techniques. Results revealed that a Gaussian process (GP regression model with a linear plus squared-exponential covariance function was able to model the data sufficiently, whereas a simpler GP was not a good fit. Spectral clustering analysis was the best of a variety of clustering techniques, though no strong groupings are apparent in these data. This was confirmed by variational Bayes analysis, which only fitted one Gaussian over the dataset. Slight trends in the optimised hyperparameters between musically-trained and untrained individuals allowed for the building of a successful GP classifier that differentiated between these two groups. In conclusion, this set of techniques provides useful mathematical tools for analysing real-time visualisations of sound and can be applied to similar datasets as well.

The impact of area-based initiatives on physical activity trends in deprived areas; a quasi-experimental evaluation of the Dutch District Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Kramer, Daniëlle; Droomers, Mariël; Jongeneel-Grimen, Birthe; Wingen, Marleen; Stronks, Karien; Kunst, Anton E

2014-03-11

Numerous area-based initiatives (ABIs) have been implemented in deprived neighbourhoods across Europe. These large-scale initiatives aim to tackle the socio-economic and environmental problems in these areas that might influence physical activity (PA). There is little robust evidence of their impact on PA. This study aimed to assess the impact of a Dutch ABI called the District Approach on trends in leisure-time PA in deprived districts. Repeated cross-sectional data on 48401 adults across the Netherlands were obtained from the Integrated Survey on Household Living Conditions (POLS) 2004-2011. 1517 of these adults resided in deprived target districts and 46884 adults resided elsewhere in the Netherlands. In a quasi-experimental interrupted time-series design, multilevel logistic regression analyses were performed to assess trends in leisure-time walking, cycling, and sports before and during the intervention. Trends in deprived target districts were compared with trends in various control groups. The role of the intensity of environmental interventions was also assessed. Deprived target districts showed a significantly positive change in walking trend between the pre-intervention and intervention period. The trend change in the deprived target districts was significantly larger compared to the rest of the Netherlands, but not compared to other deprived districts. For cycling and sports, neither deprived districts nor control districts showed a significant trend change. For all leisure-time PA outcomes, trend changes were not related to the intensity of environmental interventions in the deprived target districts. Some evidence was found to suggest that ABIs like the District Approach have a positive impact on leisure-time PA in deprived districts, regardless of the intensity of environmental interventions.

National Trends of Antiparkinsonism Treatment in Taiwan: 2004–2011

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weng-Ming Liu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Several guidelines for Parkinson’s disease (PD management were recently updated. We examined temporal trends for antiparkinsonism drugs in Taiwan. Methods. Antiparkinsonism prescriptions, including levodopa, ergot/nonergot dopamine agonists (DAs, amantadine, selegiline, entacapone, and anticholinergics, were identified in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Database from 2004 to 2011. Time trend analyses were estimated assuming Poisson distribution. Results. A total of 19,302 PD patients in 2004 and 41,606 PD patients in 2011 were analyzed. Antiparkinsonism prescriptions increased significantly from 187,137 in 2004 to 414,587 in 2011. Levodopa monotherapy or combination therapy was the mainstay. Levodopa monotherapy comprised 37.4% of prescriptions in 2004 and 44.2% in 2011, with an annual increase rate of 18.14%. There was a substantially increasing trend of DA prescriptions, which were higher in younger-aged patients (<60 years than in older-aged group (p=0.0006. Among combination therapy, DA combined with levodopa or other antiparkinsonism medications became the main combinations for younger-aged patients after 2009. After 2005, the proportion of ergot DA usage markedly decreased and PD patients using nonergot DA increased. Conclusions. Levodopa was the major treatment from 2004 to 2011. There was a steeply increased trend of DA use, especially in younger-aged patients. Nonergot agents comprised the major DA group after 2005.

Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

Science.gov (United States)

Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

2012-04-01

The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

Possible connections of the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice cover.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Lejiang; Zhong, Shiyuan; Winkler, Julie A; Zhou, Mingyu; Lenschow, Donald H; Li, Bingrui; Wang, Xianqiao; Yang, Qinghua

2017-04-05

Sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and a key indicator of climate change. A decreasing trend in Arctic sea-ice concentration is evident in recent years, whereas Antarctic sea-ice concentration exhibits a generally increasing trend. Various studies have investigated the underlying causes of the observed trends for each region, but possible linkages between the regional trends have not been studied. Here, we hypothesize that the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice concentration may be linked, at least partially, through interdecadal variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Although evaluation of this hypothesis is constrained by the limitations of the sea-ice cover record, preliminary statistical analyses of one short-term and two long-term time series of observed and reanalysis sea-ice concentrations data suggest the possibility of the hypothesized linkages. For all three data sets, the leading mode of variability of global sea-ice concentration is positively correlated with the AMO and negatively correlated with the PDO. Two wave trains related to the PDO and the AMO appear to produce anomalous surface-air temperature and low-level wind fields in the two polar regions that contribute to the opposite changes in sea-ice concentration.

[Comparison of application of Cochran-Armitage trend test and linear regression analysis for rate trend analysis in epidemiology study].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, D Z; Wang, C; Shen, C F; Zhang, Y; Zhang, H; Song, G D; Xue, X D; Xu, Z L; Zhang, S; Jiang, G H

2017-05-10

We described the time trend of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) from 1999 to 2013 in Tianjin incidence rate with Cochran-Armitage trend (CAT) test and linear regression analysis, and the results were compared. Based on actual population, CAT test had much stronger statistical power than linear regression analysis for both overall incidence trend and age specific incidence trend (Cochran-Armitage trend P valuelinear regression P value). The statistical power of CAT test decreased, while the result of linear regression analysis remained the same when population size was reduced by 100 times and AMI incidence rate remained unchanged. The two statistical methods have their advantages and disadvantages. It is necessary to choose statistical method according the fitting degree of data, or comprehensively analyze the results of two methods.

Assessment of vegetation trends in drylands from time series of earth observation data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fensholt, R.; Horion, S.; Tagesson, T.; Ehammer, A.; Grogan, K.; Tian, F.; Huber, S.; Verbesselt, J.; Prince, S.D.; Tucker, C.J.; Rasmussen, K.

2015-01-01

This chapter summarizes approaches to the detection of dryland vegetation change and methods for observing spatio-temporal trends from space. An overview of suitable long-term Earth Observation (EO) based datasets for assessment of global dryland vegetation trends is provided and a status map of

Seasonal trend analysis and ARIMA modeling of relative humidity and wind speed time series around Yamula Dam

Science.gov (United States)

Eymen, Abdurrahman; Köylü, Ümran

2018-02-01

Local climate change is determined by analysis of long-term recorded meteorological data. In the statistical analysis of the meteorological data, the Mann-Kendall rank test, which is one of the non-parametrical tests, has been used; on the other hand, for determining the power of the trend, Theil-Sen method has been used on the data obtained from 16 meteorological stations. The stations cover the provinces of Kayseri, Sivas, Yozgat, and Nevşehir in the Central Anatolia region of Turkey. Changes in land-use affect local climate. Dams are structures that cause major changes on the land. Yamula Dam is located 25 km northwest of Kayseri. The dam has huge water body which is approximately 85 km2. The mentioned tests have been used for detecting the presence of any positive or negative trend in meteorological data. The meteorological data in relation to the seasonal average, maximum, and minimum values of the relative humidity and seasonal average wind speed have been organized as time series and the tests have been conducted accordingly. As a result of these tests, the following have been identified: increase was observed in minimum relative humidity values in the spring, summer, and autumn seasons. As for the seasonal average wind speed, decrease was detected for nine stations in all seasons, whereas increase was observed in four stations. After the trend analysis, pre-dam mean relative humidity time series were modeled with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) model which is statistical modeling tool. Post-dam relative humidity values were predicted by ARIMA models.

School Desegregation Trends in Gauteng Province

Science.gov (United States)

Amsterdam, C. E. N.; Nkomo, M.; Weber, E.

2012-01-01

This study utilized 2003 to 2006 school enrollment data from the Gauteng Department of Education (GDE) to examine school desegregation trends and interracial exposure among learners from different race groups. Descriptive analyses revealed findings consistent with the literature wherein a majority of schools served mainly homogeneous populations.…

Do economic players shape up fashion trends?

OpenAIRE

Hasan, Syed Akif; Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz; Osman, Ms. Amber

2012-01-01

The behavior of following the most in vogue and admired styles of dressing has been there since the ancient times. With time, people have moved on with the rapid change in the surroundings. Both the genders acknowledge fashion. Fashion is an extension of regular clothing. This paper investigates the role of economical players which includes per capita income and inflations in shaping up the various trends/ fashion trends/ trends in clothing and their consumptions for Pakistan, India, United S...

Low validity of Google Trends for behavioral forecasting of national suicide rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Tran, Ulrich S; Andel, Rita; Niederkrotenthaler, Thomas; Till, Benedikt; Ajdacic-Gross, Vladeta; Voracek, Martin

2017-01-01

Recent research suggests that search volumes of the most popular search engine worldwide, Google, provided via Google Trends, could be associated with national suicide rates in the USA, UK, and some Asian countries. However, search volumes have mostly been studied in an ad hoc fashion, without controls for spurious associations. This study evaluated the validity and utility of Google Trends search volumes for behavioral forecasting of suicide rates in the USA, Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. Suicide-related search terms were systematically collected and respective Google Trends search volumes evaluated for availability. Time spans covered 2004 to 2010 (USA, Switzerland) and 2004 to 2012 (Germany, Austria). Temporal associations of search volumes and suicide rates were investigated with time-series analyses that rigorously controlled for spurious associations. The number and reliability of analyzable search volume data increased with country size. Search volumes showed various temporal associations with suicide rates. However, associations differed both across and within countries and mostly followed no discernable patterns. The total number of significant associations roughly matched the number of expected Type I errors. These results suggest that the validity of Google Trends search volumes for behavioral forecasting of national suicide rates is low. The utility and validity of search volumes for the forecasting of suicide rates depend on two key assumptions ("the population that conducts searches consists mostly of individuals with suicidal ideation", "suicide-related search behavior is strongly linked with suicidal behavior"). We discuss strands of evidence that these two assumptions are likely not met. Implications for future research with Google Trends in the context of suicide research are also discussed.

Direct medical costs of hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases in Shanghai, China: trends and projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shengnan; Petzold, Max; Cao, Junshan; Zhang, Yue; Wang, Weibing

2015-05-01

Few studies in China have focused on direct expenditures for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), making cost trends for CVDs uncertain. Epidemic modeling and forecasting may be essential for health workers and policy makers to reduce the cost burden of CVDs.To develop a time series model using Box-Jenkins methodology for a 15-year forecasting of CVD hospitalization costs in Shanghai.Daily visits and medical expenditures for CVD hospitalizations between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2012 were analyzed. Data from 2012 were used for further analyses, including yearly total health expenditures and expenditures per visit for each disease, as well as per-visit-per-year medical costs of each service for CVD hospitalizations. Time series analyses were performed to determine the long-time trend of total direct medical expenditures for CVDs and specific expenditures for each disease, which were used to forecast expenditures until December 31, 2030.From 2008 to 2012, there were increased yearly trends for both hospitalizations (from 250,354 to 322,676) and total costs (from US $ 388.52 to 721.58 million per year in 2014 currency) in Shanghai. Cost per CVD hospitalization in 2012 averaged US $ 2236.29, with the highest being for chronic rheumatic heart diseases (US $ 4710.78). Most direct medical costs were spent on medication. By the end of 2030, the average cost per visit per month for all CVDs was estimated to be US $ 4042.68 (95% CI: US $ 3795.04-4290.31) for all CVDs, and the total health expenditure for CVDs would reach over US $1.12 billion (95% CI: US $ 1.05-1.19 billion) without additional government interventions.Total health expenditures for CVDs in Shanghai are estimated to be higher in the future. These results should be a valuable future resource for both researchers on the economic effects of CVDs and for policy makers.

Trends in violence education in family medicine residency curricula.

Science.gov (United States)

Cronholm, Peter F; Singh, Vijay; Fogarty, Colleen T; Ambuel, Bruce

2014-09-01

Violence is a significant public health issue with far-reaching implications for the health of individuals and their communities. Our objective was to describe trends in violence-related training in family medicine residency programs since the last national survey was conducted in 1997. Surveys were sent to 337 US family medicine residency programs with the program director having active Society of Teachers of Family Medicine (STFM) membership. Measures included residency setting and characteristics, violence-related curricular content, teaching techniques and personnel, timing of content, and impact of changes in Residency Review Committee (RRC) and Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) requirements. Descriptive statistics and bivariate analyses comparing measures across time were used. A total of 201 (60%) surveys were completed. The most common violence curricula was child (83%) and elder abuse (76%), and the most common teachers of violence-related content were family physicians, psychologists, and social workers. The most common teaching methods were clinical precepting (94%), lectures (90%), case vignettes (71%), and intimate partner violence (IPV) shelter experiences (67%). ACGME and RRC changes were not reflected in self-reported measures of curricular emphasis or time. Violence curricular content and number of hours has been constant in family medicine residencies over time. An increase in the reported use of active learning strategies was identified as a trend across surveys. Next steps for violence curricula involve assessment of residents' competency to identify and intervene in violence.

Time-Series Analyses of Transcriptomes and Proteomes Reveal Molecular Networks Underlying Oil Accumulation in Canola.

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Huafang; Cui, Yixin; Ding, Yijuan; Mei, Jiaqin; Dong, Hongli; Zhang, Wenxin; Wu, Shiqi; Liang, Ying; Zhang, Chunyu; Li, Jiana; Xiong, Qing; Qian, Wei

2016-01-01

Understanding the regulation of lipid metabolism is vital for genetic engineering of canola ( Brassica napus L.) to increase oil yield or modify oil composition. We conducted time-series analyses of transcriptomes and proteomes to uncover the molecular networks associated with oil accumulation and dynamic changes in these networks in canola. The expression levels of genes and proteins were measured at 2, 4, 6, and 8 weeks after pollination (WAP). Our results show that the biosynthesis of fatty acids is a dominant cellular process from 2 to 6 WAP, while the degradation mainly happens after 6 WAP. We found that genes in almost every node of fatty acid synthesis pathway were significantly up-regulated during oil accumulation. Moreover, significant expression changes of two genes, acetyl-CoA carboxylase and acyl-ACP desaturase, were detected on both transcriptomic and proteomic levels. We confirmed the temporal expression patterns revealed by the transcriptomic analyses using quantitative real-time PCR experiments. The gene set association analysis show that the biosynthesis of fatty acids and unsaturated fatty acids are the most significant biological processes from 2-4 WAP and 4-6 WAP, respectively, which is consistent with the results of time-series analyses. These results not only provide insight into the mechanisms underlying lipid metabolism, but also reveal novel candidate genes that are worth further investigation for their values in the genetic engineering of canola.

Decreasing trends in hospitalizations during anti-TNF therapy are associated with time to anti-TNF therapy: Results from two referral centres.

Science.gov (United States)

Mandel, Michael D; Balint, Anita; Golovics, Petra A; Vegh, Zsuzsanna; Mohas, Anna; Szilagyi, Blanka; Szabo, Agnes; Kurti, Zsuzsanna; Kiss, Lajos S; Lovasz, Barbara D; Gecse, Krisztina B; Farkas, Klaudia; Molnar, Tamas; Lakatos, Peter L

2014-11-01

Hospitalization is an important outcome measure and a major driver of costs in patients with inflammatory bowel disease. We analysed medical and surgical hospitalization rates and predictors of hospitalization before and during anti-TNF therapy. Data from 194 consecutive patients were analysed retrospectively (males, 45.4%, median age at diagnosis, 24.0 years, infliximab/adalimumab: 144/50) in whom anti-TNF therapy was started after January 1, 2008. Total follow-up was 1874 patient-years and 474 patient-years with anti-TNF exposure. Hospitalization rates hospitalization decreased only in Crohn's disease (odds ratio: 0.59, 95% confidence interval: 0.51-0.70, median 2-years' anti-TNF exposure) with a same trend for surgical interventions (p=0.07), but not in ulcerative colitis. Need for hospitalization decreased in Crohn's disease with early (within 3-years from diagnosis, p=0.016 by McNemar test), but not late anti-TNF exposure. At logistic regression analysis complicated disease behaviour (p=0.03), concomitant azathioprine (p=0.02) use, but not anti-TNF type, gender, perianal disease or previous surgeries were associated with the risk of hospitalization during anti-TNF therapy. Hospitalization rate decreased significantly in patients with Crohn's disease but not ulcerative colitis after the introduction of anti-TNF therapy and was associated with time to therapy. Complicated disease phenotype and concomitant azathioprine use were additional factors defining the risk of hospitalization. Copyright © 2014 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A retrospective time trend study of PBDEs and PCBs in human milk from the Faroe Islands

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Faengstroem, B.; Strid, A.; Athanassiadis, I.; Bergman, Aa. [Dept. of Environmental Chemistry, Stockholm Univ. (Sweden); Grandjean, P. [Inst. of Public Health, Univ. of Southern Denmark, Odense (Denmark); Weihe, P. [Faroese Hospital System, Torshavn (Denmark)

2004-09-15

The Faroe Islands are located quite far from the European continent and from industrial sources of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). However, the Faroese population may be exposed to these substances through contaminated food, via goods and products in their homes, and in their work environment. High trophic level marine species, including pilot whale and seabirds, such as fulmars, have been shown to accumulate high concentrations of organohalogen substances (OHS) like PCBs and PBDEs. Possibly due to dietary differences, wide differences exist in regard to PCB exposures among the Faroese. In a birth cohort from 1987, milk pools contained relatively high PCB concentrations between 1.9-2.5 {mu}g/g lipid weight (l.w.). In another cohort from 1994, serum from pregnant Faroese women was analyzed for PCB and OH-PCBs, with results ranging from 0.15 to 22 {mu}g/g l.w. and 0.02 to 1.8 {mu}g/g l.w., respectively. In a time trend study for PBDEs and PCBs in human milk from Sweden from the early 1970s to 1997, the PBDE concentrations showed a significant increase while the PCB levels showed a decrease. Human milk samples from 1997 to 2000 indicate a decrease for the PBDEs, mainly due to reduced concentrations of BDE-47. A similar trend has been seen in human milk from Japan. In Norway, PBDE in human milk increased from 1986 to 2001, with similar concentration levels as reported in Sweden and Japan. In the United States the PBDE levels reported in human milk are about 4 times higher than those seen in Europe and Japan. The aim of the present study was to determine PBDE and PCB concentrations in a temporal trend study with samples from 1987-1999 in human milk samples from the Faroe Islands.

Trend patterns in global sea surface temperature

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barbosa, S.M.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

2009-01-01

Isolating long-term trend in sea surface temperature (SST) from El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) variability is fundamental for climate studies. In the present study, trend-empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, a robust space-time method for extracting trend patterns, is applied to iso...

Estimating time-varying exposure-outcome associations using case-control data: logistic and case-cohort analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Keogh, Ruth H; Mangtani, Punam; Rodrigues, Laura; Nguipdop Djomo, Patrick

2016-01-05

Traditional analyses of standard case-control studies using logistic regression do not allow estimation of time-varying associations between exposures and the outcome. We present two approaches which allow this. The motivation is a study of vaccine efficacy as a function of time since vaccination. Our first approach is to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations by fitting a series of logistic regressions within successive time periods, reusing controls across periods. Our second approach treats the case-control sample as a case-cohort study, with the controls forming the subcohort. In the case-cohort analysis, controls contribute information at all times they are at risk. Extensions allow left truncation, frequency matching and, using the case-cohort analysis, time-varying exposures. Simulations are used to investigate the methods. The simulation results show that both methods give correct estimates of time-varying effects of exposures using standard case-control data. Using the logistic approach there are efficiency gains by reusing controls over time and care should be taken over the definition of controls within time periods. However, using the case-cohort analysis there is no ambiguity over the definition of controls. The performance of the two analyses is very similar when controls are used most efficiently under the logistic approach. Using our methods, case-control studies can be used to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations where they may not previously have been considered. The case-cohort analysis has several advantages, including that it allows estimation of time-varying associations as a continuous function of time, while the logistic regression approach is restricted to assuming a step function form for the time-varying association.

Can linear trend analyses of NDVI time series data truly detect land degradation? Simulations may provide the answer

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Wessels, Konrad J

2011-04-01

Full Text Available of sufficient field data. The authors suggest that such an approach is not sufficiently rigorous. Therefore, they demonstrate an approach which simulates land degradation so that the intensity, rate and timing of the reduction in NDVI can be controlled, in order...

New trends in marketing communications

OpenAIRE

Cigošová, Petra

2009-01-01

The thesis i about new forms of marketing communications and new approaches to the use of older forms. It focuses on internet, as the the major new medium used in communication. Last part analyses new trends in customer insights to advertising, advertisment spendings for different kinds of media and augmentation of the number of internet users according to results of marketing researches.

Historical Perspective of Clean Cities and Alternative Fuels Data Center Trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Connor, J. K.

2007-09-01

This document draws on the wealth of information housed in the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Trends and analyses are examined from data as far back as 1991. The findings of those trends and salient features are summarized.

Trends in HFE Methods and Tools and Their Applicability to Safety Reviews

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Hara, J.M.; Plott, C.; Milanski, J.; Ronan, A.; Scheff, S.; Laux, L.; and Bzostek, J.

2009-09-30

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) conducts human factors engineering (HFE) safety reviews of applicant submittals for new plants and for changes to existing plants. The reviews include the evaluation of the methods and tools (M&T) used by applicants as part of their HFE program. The technology used to perform HFE activities has been rapidly evolving, resulting in a whole new generation of HFE M&Ts. The objectives of this research were to identify the current trends in HFE methods and tools, determine their applicability to NRC safety reviews, and identify topics for which the NRC may need additional guidance to support the NRC's safety reviews. We conducted a survey that identified over 100 new HFE M&Ts. The M&Ts were assessed to identify general trends. Seven trends were identified: Computer Applications for Performing Traditional Analyses, Computer-Aided Design, Integration of HFE Methods and Tools, Rapid Development Engineering, Analysis of Cognitive Tasks, Use of Virtual Environments and Visualizations, and Application of Human Performance Models. We assessed each trend to determine its applicability to the NRC's review by considering (1) whether the nuclear industry is making use of M&Ts for each trend, and (2) whether M&Ts reflecting the trend can be reviewed using the current design review guidance. We concluded that M&T trends that are applicable to the commercial nuclear industry and are expected to impact safety reviews may be considered for review guidance development. Three trends fell into this category: Analysis of Cognitive Tasks, Use of Virtual Environments and Visualizations, and Application of Human Performance Models. The other trends do not need to be addressed at this time.

Trends in HFE Methods and Tools and Their Applicability to Safety Reviews

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Hara, J.M.; Plott, C.; Milanski, J.; Ronan, A.; Scheff, S.; Laux, L.; Bzostek, J.

2009-01-01

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) conducts human factors engineering (HFE) safety reviews of applicant submittals for new plants and for changes to existing plants. The reviews include the evaluation of the methods and tools (M and T) used by applicants as part of their HFE program. The technology used to perform HFE activities has been rapidly evolving, resulting in a whole new generation of HFE M and Ts. The objectives of this research were to identify the current trends in HFE methods and tools, determine their applicability to NRC safety reviews, and identify topics for which the NRC may need additional guidance to support the NRC's safety reviews. We conducted a survey that identified over 100 new HFE M and Ts. The M and Ts were assessed to identify general trends. Seven trends were identified: Computer Applications for Performing Traditional Analyses, Computer-Aided Design, Integration of HFE Methods and Tools, Rapid Development Engineering, Analysis of Cognitive Tasks, Use of Virtual Environments and Visualizations, and Application of Human Performance Models. We assessed each trend to determine its applicability to the NRC's review by considering (1) whether the nuclear industry is making use of M and Ts for each trend, and (2) whether M and Ts reflecting the trend can be reviewed using the current design review guidance. We concluded that M and T trends that are applicable to the commercial nuclear industry and are expected to impact safety reviews may be considered for review guidance development. Three trends fell into this category: Analysis of Cognitive Tasks, Use of Virtual Environments and Visualizations, and Application of Human Performance Models. The other trends do not need to be addressed at this time.

Temporal trends in non-occupational sedentary behaviours from Australian Time Use Surveys 1992, 1997 and 2006

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chau Josephine Y

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Current epidemiological data highlight the potential detrimental associations between sedentary behaviours and health outcomes, yet little is known about temporal trends in adult sedentary time. This study used time use data to examine population trends in sedentary behaviours in non-occupational domains and more specifically during leisure time. Methods We conducted secondary analysis of population representative data from the Australian Time Use Surveys 1992, 1997 and 2006 involving respondents aged 20 years and over with completed time use diaries for two days. Weighted samples for each survey year were: n = 5851 (1992, n = 6419 (1997 and n = 5505 (2006. We recoded all primary activities by domain (sleep, occupational, transport, leisure, household, education and intensity (sedentary, light, moderate. Adjusted multiple linear regressions tested for differences in time spent in non-occupational sedentary behaviours in 1992 and 1997 with 2006 as the reference year. Results Total non-occupational sedentary time was slightly lower in 1997 than in 2006 (mean = 894 min/2d and 906 min/2d, respectively; B = −11.2; 95%CI: -21.5, -0.9. Compared with 2006, less time was spent in 1997 in sedentary transport (B-6.7; 95%CI: -10.4, -3.0 and sedentary education (B = −6.3; 95%CI: -10.5, -2.2 while household and leisure sedentary time remained stable. Time engaged in different types of leisure-time sedentary activities changed between 1997 and 2006: leisure-time computer use increased (B = −26.7; 95%CI: -29.5, -23.8, while other leisure-time sedentary behaviours (e.g., reading, listening to music, hobbies and crafts showed small concurrent reductions. In 1992, leisure screen time was lower than in 2006: TV-viewing (B = −24.2; 95%CI: -31.2, -17.2, computer use (B = −35.3; 95%CI: -37.7, -32.8. In 2006, 90 % of leisure time was spent sedentary, of which 53 % was screen time. Conclusions Non

2014 Global Energy Trends: a year full of surprises. Based on its 2014 data for G20 countries, Enerdata analyses the trends in the world energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2015-01-01

According to the 2014 Global Energy Trends publication, Enerdata points out 2014 as a remarkable year with a near stagnation in energy demand and CO_2 emissions despite economic growth. The G20's 2014 Key Energy figures: +3.5% Economic Growth; +0.3% (10.8 Gtep) Energy consumption stagnation; -0.2% (26 GtCO_2) CO_2 emissions stabilizations. The main trends derived from the publication are: - Historical stagnation in energy consumption; - Stabilisation in CO_2 emissions; - Global energy consumption stabilisation is reflected everywhere: - 0 growth for gas, - Fall in coal consumption, - Slight increase in electricity consumption. The Global Energy Trends Analysis also provides additional graphs on such topics as: Coal: most consumed energy source in G20 countries; Oil: 50% fall in international prices; Oil: demand continues to slightly increase; Gas: high impact of climate on gas consumption. (authors)

Trends in congenital anomalies in Europe from 1980 to 2012

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morris, Joan K.; Springett, Anna L.; Greenlees, Ruth

2018-01-01

and congenital hydronephrosis trends could not be interpreted due to discrepancies in diagnostic criteria. The trends for club foot and syndactyly disappeared once registries with disparate results were excluded. No decrease in neural tube defects was detected, despite efforts at prevention through folic acid...... of pregnancy for fetal anomaly were analysed with multilevel random- effects Poisson regression models. Results Seventeen anomaly subgroups had statistically significant trends from 2003-2012; 12 increasing and 5 decreasing. Conclusions The annual increasing prevalence of severe congenital heart defects...

Out-of-pocket expenditures for primary health care in Tajikistan: a time-trend analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwarz, Joëlle; Wyss, Kaspar; Gulyamova, Zulfiya M; Sharipov, Soleh

2013-03-18

Aligned with the international call for universal coverage of affordable and quality health care, the government of Tajikistan is undertaking reforms of its health system aiming amongst others at reducing the out-of-pocket expenditures (OPE) of patients seeking care. Household surveys were conducted in 2005, 2007, 2008 and 2011 to explore the scale and determinants of OPE of users in four district of Tajikistan, where health care is legally free of charge at the primary level. Using the data from four cross-sectional household surveys conducted between 2005 and 2011, time trends in OPE for consultation fees, drugs and transport costs of adult users of family medicine services were analysed. To investigate differences along the economic status, an asset index was constructed using principal component analysis. Adjusted for inflation, OPE for primary care have substantially increased in the period 2005 to 2011. While the proportion of patients reporting the payment of informal consultation fees to providers and their amount were constant over time, the proportion of patients reporting expenditures for drugs has increased, and the median amounts have doubled from 5.3 US$ to 10.7 US$. Thus, the expenditures on medicine represent the biggest financial burden for patients accessing a primary care facility. Regression models showed that in 2011 patients from the most remote district with spread-out villages reported significant higher expenditures on medicine. Besides the steady increase in the median amount for OPE, the proportion of patients reporting making an informal payment to their care provider showed great variations across district of residence (between 20% and 73%) and economic status (between 33% among the 'worst-off' group and 68% among the 'better-off' group). In a context of limited governmental funds allocated to health and financing reforms aiming to improve financial access to primary care, the present paper indicates that in Tajikistan OPE - especially

Cost trend analysis of initial cancer treatment in Taiwan.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tsai-Yun Li

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Despite the high cost of initial cancer care, that is, care in the first year after diagnosis, limited information is available for specific categories of cancer-related costs, especially costs for specific services. This study purposed to identify causes of change in cancer treatment costs over time and to perform trend analyses of the percentage of cancer patients who had received a specific treatment type and the mean cost of care for patients who had received that treatment. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The analysis of trends in initial treatment costs focused on cancer-related surgery, chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and treatments other than active treatments. For each cancer-specific trend, slopes were calculated for regression models with 95% confidence intervals. Analyses of patients diagnosed in 2007 showed that the National Health Insurance (NHI system paid, on average, $10,780 for initial care of a gastric cancer patient and $10,681 for initial care of a lung cancer patient, which were inflation-adjusted increases of $6,234 and $5,522, respectively, over the 1996 care costs. During the same interval, the mean NHI payment for initial care for the five specific cancers increased significantly (p<0.05. Hospitalization costs comprised the largest portion of payments for all cancers. During 1996-2007, the use of chemotherapy and radiation therapy significantly increased in all cancer types (p<0.05. In 2007, NHI payments for initial care for these five cancers exceeded $12 billion, and gastric and lung cancers accounted for the largest share. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In addition to the growing number of NHI beneficiaries with cancer, treatment costs and the percentage of patients who undergo treatment are growing. Therefore, the NHI must accurately predict the economic burden of new chemotherapy agents and radiation therapies and may need to develop programs for stratifying patients according to their potential benefit

Trends in Classroom Observation Scores

Science.gov (United States)

Casabianca, Jodi M.; Lockwood, J. R.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.

2015-01-01

Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System-Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from…

The time-dependent simplified P2 equations: Asymptotic analyses and numerical experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, U.; Miller, W.F. Jr.

1998-01-01

Using an asymptotic expansion, the authors found that the modified time-dependent simplified P 2 (SP 2 ) equations are robust, high-order, asymptotic approximations to the time-dependent transport equation in a physical regime in which the conventional time-dependent diffusion equation is the leading-order approximation. Using diffusion limit analysis, they also asymptotically compared three competitive time-dependent equations (the telegrapher's equation, the time-dependent SP 2 equations, and the time-dependent simplified even-parity equation). As a result, they found that the time-dependent SP 2 equations contain higher-order asymptotic approximations to the time-dependent transport equation than the other competitive equations. The numerical results confirm that, in the vast majority of cases, the time-dependent SP 2 solutions are significantly more accurate than the time-dependent diffusion and the telegrapher's solutions. They have also shown that the time-dependent SP 2 equations have excellent characteristics such as rotational invariance (which means no ray effect), good diffusion limit behavior, guaranteed positivity in diffusive regimes, and significant accuracy, even in deep-penetration problems. Through computer-running-time tests, they have shown that the time-dependent SP 2 equations can be solved with significantly less computational effort than the conventionally used, time-dependent S N equations (for N > 2) and almost as fast as the time-dependent diffusion equation. From all these results, they conclude that the time-dependent SP 2 equations should be considered as an important competitor for an improved approximately transport equations solver. Such computationally efficient time-dependent transport models are important for problems requiring enhanced computational efficiency, such as neutronics/fluid-dynamics coupled problems that arise in the analyses of hypothetical nuclear reactor accidents

Prevalence and time trends in diabetes and physical inactivity among adult West African populations: the epidemic has arrived.

Science.gov (United States)

Abubakari, A R; Lauder, W; Jones, M C; Kirk, A; Agyemang, C; Bhopal, R S

2009-09-01

To determine the prevalence and distribution of, and trends in, physical inactivity and diabetes in adult West African populations. Systematic review and meta-analysis. Literature searches were conducted using four electronic databases. Journal hand searches and examination of citations of relevant articles were also undertaken. To be included, studies had to be population based, use clearly defined criteria for measuring diabetes and physical inactivity, present data that allowed calculation of the prevalence of diabetes or physical inactivity, and sample adult participants. Studies retrieved were appraised critically. Meta-analysis was performed using the DerSimonian-Laird random effect model. Twenty-one reports were retrieved for diabetes and 15 reports were retrieved for physical in/activity. Most studies (10 for diabetes and six for physical activity) were conducted solely among urban populations. The prevalence of diabetes in West Africa was approximately 4.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.0-9.0] in urban adults and 2.6% (95%CI 1.5-4.4) in rural adults, and was similar in men and women [prevalence ratio (PR) 1.36, 95%CI 0.96-1.92]. Cumulative time trend analyses suggested an increase in the prevalence of diabetes among adults in urban West Africa, from approximately 3.0% (95%CI 1.0-7.0) to 4.0% (95%CI 2.0-9.0) in the past 10 years. The prevalence of inactivity in West Africa was 13% (95%CI 9.0-18.0). An association was found between physical inactivity and being older (> or = 50 years) (PR 1.82, 95%CI 1.36-2.44), female gender (PR 1.62, 95%CI 1.41-1.87) and urban residence (PR 2.04, 95%CI 1.58-2.63). Diabetes and physical inactivity are important public health issues in urban West Africa, with similar prevalences to wealthy industrialized countries. There is an urgent need for policy makers, politicians and health promotion experts to put measures in place to encourage active lifestyles and control diabetes in urban West Africa.

Mesopause region temperature variability and its trend in southern Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Venturini, Mateus S.; Bageston, José V.; Caetano, Nattan R.; Peres, Lucas V.; Bencherif, Hassan; Schuch, Nelson J.

2018-03-01

Nowadays, the study of the upper atmosphere is increasing, mostly because of the need to understand the patterns of Earth's atmosphere. Since studies on global warming have become very important for the development of new technologies, understanding all regions of the atmosphere becomes an unavoidable task. In this paper, we aim to analyze the temperature variability and its trend in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region during a period of 12 years (from 2003 to 2014). For this purpose, three different heights, i.e., 85, 90 and 95 km, were focused on in order to investigate the upper atmosphere, and a geographic region different to other studies was chosen, in the southern region of Brazil, centered in the city of Santa Maria, RS (29°41'02'' S; 53°48'25'' W). In order to reach the objectives of this work, temperature data from the SABER instrument (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry), aboard NASA's Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics (TIMED) satellite, were used. Finally, two cases were studied related to distinct grids of latitude/longitude used to obtain the mean temperature profiles. The first case considered a grid of 20° × 20° lat/long, centered in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. In the second case, the region was reduced to a size of 15° × 15° in order to compare the results and discuss the two cases in terms of differences or similarities in temperature trends. Observations show that the size of the geographical area used for the average temperature profiles can influence the results of variability and trend of the temperature. In addition, reducing the time duration of analyses from 24 to 12 h a day also influences the trend significantly. For the smaller geographical region (15° × 15°) and the 12 h daily time window (09:00-21:00 UT) it was found that the main contributions for the temperature variability at the three heights were the annual and semi-annual cycles and the solar flux influence

In search of functional association from time-series microarray data based on the change trend and level of gene expression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zeng An-Ping

2006-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The increasing availability of time-series expression data opens up new possibilities to study functional linkages of genes. Present methods used to infer functional linkages between genes from expression data are mainly based on a point-to-point comparison. Change trends between consecutive time points in time-series data have been so far not well explored. Results In this work we present a new method based on extracting main features of the change trend and level of gene expression between consecutive time points. The method, termed as trend correlation (TC, includes two major steps: 1, calculating a maximal local alignment of change trend score by dynamic programming and a change trend correlation coefficient between the maximal matched change levels of each gene pair; 2, inferring relationships of gene pairs based on two statistical extraction procedures. The new method considers time shifts and inverted relationships in a similar way as the local clustering (LC method but the latter is merely based on a point-to-point comparison. The TC method is demonstrated with data from yeast cell cycle and compared with the LC method and the widely used Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC based clustering method. The biological significance of the gene pairs is examined with several large-scale yeast databases. Although the TC method predicts an overall lower number of gene pairs than the other two methods at a same p-value threshold, the additional number of gene pairs inferred by the TC method is considerable: e.g. 20.5% compared with the LC method and 49.6% with the PCC method for a p-value threshold of 2.7E-3. Moreover, the percentage of the inferred gene pairs consistent with databases by our method is generally higher than the LC method and similar to the PCC method. A significant number of the gene pairs only inferred by the TC method are process-identity or function-similarity pairs or have well-documented biological

Trends in precipitation extremes and long-term memory of runoff records in Zhejiang, East China

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tian, Y.; Tian, Ye; Xu, YuePing; Booij, Martijn J.; Zhang, Qingqing; Lin, Shengji; Franks, Steward W.; Boegh, Eva; Blyth, Eleanor; Hannah, David M.; Yilmaz, Koray K.

2011-01-01

Extreme weather events have a huge impact on human beings and therefore it is of vital importance to investigate trends in relevant climatological and hydrological variables. In this study, precipitation and streamflow trends in Zhejiang Province in east China are analysed. Trends in annual and

Googling trends in conservation biology.

Science.gov (United States)

Proulx, Raphaël; Massicotte, Philippe; Pépino, Marc

2014-02-01

Web-crawling approaches, that is, automated programs data mining the internet to obtain information about a particular process, have recently been proposed for monitoring early signs of ecosystem degradation or for establishing crop calendars. However, lack of a clear conceptual and methodological framework has prevented the development of such approaches within the field of conservation biology. Our objective was to illustrate how Google Trends, a freely accessible web-crawling engine, can be used to track changes in timing of biological processes, spatial distribution of invasive species, and level of public awareness about key conservation issues. Google Trends returns the number of internet searches that were made for a keyword in a given region of the world over a defined period. Using data retrieved online for 13 countries, we exemplify how Google Trends can be used to study the timing of biological processes, such as the seasonal recurrence of pollen release or mosquito outbreaks across a latitudinal gradient. We mapped the spatial extent of results from Google Trends for 5 invasive species in the United States and found geographic patterns in invasions that are consistent with their coarse-grained distribution at state levels. From 2004 through 2012, Google Trends showed that the level of public interest and awareness about conservation issues related to ecosystem services, biodiversity, and climate change increased, decreased, and followed both trends, respectively. Finally, to further the development of research approaches at the interface of conservation biology, collective knowledge, and environmental management, we developed an algorithm that allows the rapid retrieval of Google Trends data. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Socio-economic status and time trends associated with early ART initiation following primary HIV infection in Montreal, Canada: 1996 to 2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Mehraj, Vikram; Cox, Joseph; Lebouché, Bertrand; Costiniuk, Cecilia; Cao, Wei; Li, Taisheng; Ponte, Rosalie; Thomas, Réjean; Szabo, Jason; Baril, Jean-Guy; Trottier, Benoit; Côté, Pierre; LeBlanc, Roger; Bruneau, Julie; Tremblay, Cécile; Routy, Jean-Pierre

2018-02-01

Guidelines regarding antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in HIV infection have varied over time, with the 2015 World Health Organization recommendation suggesting ART initiation at the time of diagnosis regardless of CD4 T-cell counts. Herein, we investigated the influence of socio-demographic and clinical factors in addition to time trends on early ART initiation among participants of the Montreal Primary HIV Infection Study. The Montreal Primary HIV Infection Study is a prospective cohort established in three community medical centres (CMCs) and two university medical centres (UMCs). Recently diagnosed HIV-infected adults were categorized as receiving early (vs. delayed) ART if ART was initiated within 180 days of the baseline visit. Associations between early ART initiation and socio-demographic, socio-economic and behavioural information were examined. Independent associations of factors linked with early ART initiation were determined using multivariable binary logistic regression analysis. A total of 348 participants had a documented date of HIV acquisition of age of participants was 35 (28; 42) years and the majority were male (96%), having paid employment (63%), men who have sex with men (MSM) (78%) and one to four sexual partners in the last three months (70%). Participants presented with a median IQR HIV plasma viral load of 4.6 (3.7; 5.3) log 10 copies/ml, CD4 count of 510 (387; 660) cells/μl and were recruited in CMCs (52%) or UMCs (48%). Early ART initiation was observed in 47% of the participants and the trend followed a V-shaped curve with peaks in 1996 to 1997 (89%) and 2013 to 2015 (88%) with a dip in 2007 to 2009 (22%). Multivariable analyses showed that having a paid employment adjusted odds ratio (aOR: 2.43; 95% CI: 1.19, 4.95), lower CD4 count (aOR per 50 cell increase: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.87, 0.99) and care at UMCs (aOR: 2.03; 95% CI: 1.06 to 3.90) were independently associated with early ART initiation. Early ART initiation during primary

Estimating time-varying exposure-outcome associations using case-control data: logistic and case-cohort analyses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruth H. Keogh

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Traditional analyses of standard case-control studies using logistic regression do not allow estimation of time-varying associations between exposures and the outcome. We present two approaches which allow this. The motivation is a study of vaccine efficacy as a function of time since vaccination. Methods Our first approach is to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations by fitting a series of logistic regressions within successive time periods, reusing controls across periods. Our second approach treats the case-control sample as a case-cohort study, with the controls forming the subcohort. In the case-cohort analysis, controls contribute information at all times they are at risk. Extensions allow left truncation, frequency matching and, using the case-cohort analysis, time-varying exposures. Simulations are used to investigate the methods. Results The simulation results show that both methods give correct estimates of time-varying effects of exposures using standard case-control data. Using the logistic approach there are efficiency gains by reusing controls over time and care should be taken over the definition of controls within time periods. However, using the case-cohort analysis there is no ambiguity over the definition of controls. The performance of the two analyses is very similar when controls are used most efficiently under the logistic approach. Conclusions Using our methods, case-control studies can be used to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations where they may not previously have been considered. The case-cohort analysis has several advantages, including that it allows estimation of time-varying associations as a continuous function of time, while the logistic regression approach is restricted to assuming a step function form for the time-varying association.

Food Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwenk, Nancy E.

1991-01-01

An overall perspective on trends in food consumption is presented. Nutrition awareness is at an all-time high; consumption is influenced by changes in disposable income, availability of convenience foods, smaller household size, and an increasing proportion of ethnic minorities in the population. (18 references) (LB)

Time trend tendency (1988-2014 years) of organochlorine pesticide levels in the adipose tissue of Veracruz inhabitants.

Science.gov (United States)

Calderón-Garcidueñas, Ana Laura; Waliszewski, Stefan M; Ruiz-Ramos, Rubén; Del Carmen Martinez-Valenzuela, María

2018-03-10

The population that lives in areas where organochlorine pesticides were spread in the past is still exposed to them through contaminated food, particulate matter, and vapors. Due to their lipophilic properties and resistance to metabolic reactions, they accumulate in tissues and fluids rich in lipids. The aim of the study was to monitor the concentrations of organochlorine pesticides in forensic adipose tissue samples of adult inhabitants of Veracruz City, Mexico, and compare their time trend levels from 1988 to 2014. During the study, hexachlorobenzene (HCB); lindane; β-hexachorocyclohexane; p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (pp'DDE); p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (p,p'-DDT); and o,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (o,p'-DDT) were determined. Our survey was divided into two periods: first, from the years 1988 to 1999, during which DDT was allowed to fight malaria and dengue vectors and the second from the years 2001 to 2014, after the DDT ban. A total of 1435 samples were analyzed. There were substantial differences in the forecasted time trend values of p,p'-DDE and p,p'-DDT in human adipose tissue samples in the two different periods. During the first period, p,p'-DDE decrease time trend was 1.198 mg/kg on lipid base per year; for the second one, decrease was 0.128 mg/kg on lipid base per year. p,p'-DDT decreased 0.507 mg/kg on lipid base during the first period and 0.039 mg/kg on lipid base for the second. The different concentrations may be explained by the cessation of fresh exposure after the first period and a more equilibrated decontamination tendency during the second period. This model was useful to show the decrease in the concentration of pesticides in human adipose tissue samples.

Long-term dynamics of OH * temperatures over central Europe: trends and solar correlations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Kalicinsky

2016-12-01

an amplitude Csin  =  (1.95 ± 0.44 K of the oscillation (r2 = 0.78. The most important finding here is that using this description an additional linear trend is no longer needed. Moreover, with the knowledge of this 25-year oscillation the linear trends derived in this and in a former study of the Wuppertal data series can be reproduced by just fitting a line to the corresponding part (time interval of the oscillation. This actually means that, depending on the analysed time interval, completely different linear trends with respect to magnitude and sign can be observed. This fact is of essential importance for any comparison between different observations and model simulations.

Massive Cloud Computing Processing of P-SBAS Time Series for Displacement Analyses at Large Spatial Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Casu, F.; de Luca, C.; Lanari, R.; Manunta, M.; Zinno, I.

2016-12-01

A methodology for computing surface deformation time series and mean velocity maps of large areas is presented. Our approach relies on the availability of a multi-temporal set of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data collected from ascending and descending orbits over an area of interest, and also permits to estimate the vertical and horizontal (East-West) displacement components of the Earth's surface. The adopted methodology is based on an advanced Cloud Computing implementation of the Differential SAR Interferometry (DInSAR) Parallel Small Baseline Subset (P-SBAS) processing chain which allows the unsupervised processing of large SAR data volumes, from the raw data (level-0) imagery up to the generation of DInSAR time series and maps. The presented solution, which is highly scalable, has been tested on the ascending and descending ENVISAT SAR archives, which have been acquired over a large area of Southern California (US) that extends for about 90.000 km2. Such an input dataset has been processed in parallel by exploiting 280 computing nodes of the Amazon Web Services Cloud environment. Moreover, to produce the final mean deformation velocity maps of the vertical and East-West displacement components of the whole investigated area, we took also advantage of the information available from external GPS measurements that permit to account for possible regional trends not easily detectable by DInSAR and to refer the P-SBAS measurements to an external geodetic datum. The presented results clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach that paves the way to the extensive use of the available ERS and ENVISAT SAR data archives. Furthermore, the proposed methodology can be particularly suitable to deal with the very huge data flow provided by the Sentinel-1 constellation, thus permitting to extend the DInSAR analyses at a nearly global scale. This work is partially supported by: the DPC-CNR agreement, the EPOS-IP project and the ESA GEP project.

Long-term trends in the ionospheric E and F1 regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Bremer

2008-05-01

Full Text Available Ground based ionosonde measurements are the most essential source of information about long-term variations in the ionospheric E and F1 regions. Data of such observations have been derived at many different ionospheric stations all over the world some for more than 50 years. The standard parameters foE, h'E, and foF1 are used for trend analyses in this paper. Two main problems have to be considered in these analyses. Firstly, the data series have to be homogeneous, i.e. the observations should not be disturbed by artificial steps due to technical reasons or changes in the evaluation algorithm. Secondly, the strong solar and geomagnetic influences upon the ionospheric data have carefully to be removed by an appropriate regression analysis. Otherwise the small trends in the different ionospheric parameters cannot be detected.

The trends derived at individual stations differ markedly, however their dependence on geographic or geomagnetic latitude is only small. Nevertheless, the mean global trends estimated from the trends at the different stations show some general behaviour (positive trends in foE and foF1, negative trend in h'E which can at least qualitatively be explained by an increasing atmospheric greenhouse effect (increase of CO₂ content and other greenhouse gases and decreasing ozone values. The positive foE trend is also in qualitative agreement with rocket mass spectrometer observations of ion densities in the E region. First indications could be found that the changing ozone trend at mid-latitudes (before about 1979, between 1979 until 1995, and after about 1995 modifies the estimated mean foE trend.

Trends and variability in climate parameters of peshawar district

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shah, S.A.A.; Nisa, S.; Khan, A.; Rahman, Z.U.

2012-01-01

Rain fall pattern, daily minimum and maximum temperatures and humidity are the main factors that constitute the climate of an area. In Pakistan, consecutive positive anomalies have been observed in minimum, maximum and mean temperatures and rainfall since mid 1970s. The objective of the current study was to investigate the recent trends and variability of annual minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, relative humidity and rainfall of Peshawar. Annual meteorological parameters for 30-years (1981-2010) of Peshawar observatory have been analysed to determine indications of variations from long-term averages. Different statistical methods were used to analyse the data. For this purpose, Mann-Kendall test was applied to Meteorological data of Peshawar (1981-2010) to study any trend, which were revealed to be in a mixture. The final results show that rainfall is decreasing, minimum temperature, mean temperature and relative humidity are increasing and maximum temperature has no change. Various factors could be responsible for the contemporary trends in climate like rise in number of vehicles and industries from reviewing available literature, keeping in mind the nature of the study. Trends found may have negative implications for agriculture, health and socioeconomic conditions of the region that require the attention from relevant stakeholders. (author)

RepoSTAR. A Code package for control and evaluation of statistical calculations with the program package RepoTREND; RepoSTAR. Ein Codepaket zur Steuerung und Auswertung statistischer Rechenlaeufe mit dem Programmpaket RepoTREND

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Becker, Dirk-Alexander

2016-05-15

The program package RepoTREND for the integrated long terms safety analysis of final repositories allows besides deterministic studies of defined problems also statistical or probabilistic analyses. Probabilistic uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are realized in the program package repoTREND by a specific statistic frame called RepoSTAR. The report covers the following issues: concept, sampling and data supply of single simulations, evaluation of statistical calculations with the program RepoSUN.

Trends in the development of polycondensation and condensation polymers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vinogradova, Svetlana V; Vasnev, Valery A

2004-01-01

New trends in the development of polycondensation methods, elucidation of the main principles of macromolecular design of polymeric chains and preparation of novel promising condensation polymers are considered and analysed.

Analyzing Trends in the U.S. and Danish Gender Wage Gaps in the 1980s and 1990s

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Smith, Nina; Datta Gupta, Nabanita; Oaxaca, Ronald L.

2006-01-01

Trends in US and Danish gender wage gaps in the 1980s and 1990s are analysed within the framework of simple auto-regressive time-series models. Results show a saturation effect in the wage progress of women in Denmark at a level of 85% but no similar signs of stabilization in the USA. Also......, no evidence is found that business cycle variables can explain the development of the gender wage gap in either country during this time period....

Changes in pollution load and environmental trends in the North Sea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pawlak, Janet

1998-12-01

This publication relates to the quality of the marine environment in the North Sea. Changes in pollution load and environmental trends are analysed. Main themes discussed cover chemical contaminants, temporal trends contaminants in biota, inputs of contaminants to the marine environment, and biological effects of contaminants and biological monitoring. 14 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs.

Time trends in the levels and patterns of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in pine bark, litter, and soil after a forest fire.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Sung-Deuk

2014-02-01

Forest fires are known as an important natural source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), but time trends of PAH levels and patterns in various environmental compartments after forest fires have not been thoroughly studied yet. In this study, 16 US-EPA priority PAHs were analyzed for pine bark, litter, and soil samples collected one, three, five, and seven months after a forest fire in Pohang, South Korea. At the first sampling event, the highest levels of ∑16 PAHs were measured for the three types of samples (pine bark: 5,920 ng/g, litter: 1,540 ng/g, and soil: 133 ng/g). Thereafter, there were apparent decreasing trends in PAH levels; the control samples showed the lowest levels (pine bark: 124 ng/g, litter: 75 ng/g, and soil: 26 ng/g). The levels of PAHs in the litter and soil samples normalized by organic carbon (OC) fractions also showed decreasing trends, indicating a direct influence of the forest fire. Among the 16 target PAHs, naphthalene was a dominant compound for all types of samples. Light PAHs with 2-4 rings significantly contributed to the total concentration, and their contribution decreased in the course of time. Runoff by heavy precipitation, evaporation, and degradation of PAHs in the summer were probably the main reasons for the observed time trends. The results of principal component analysis (PCA) and diagnostic ratio also supported that the forest fire was indeed an important source of PAHs in the study area. © 2013.

Satellite-based trends of solar radiation and cloud parameters in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Pfeifroth, Uwe; Bojanowski, Jedrzej S.; Clerbaux, Nicolas; Manara, Veronica; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; Trentmann, Jörg; Walawender, Jakub P.; Hollmann, Rainer

2018-04-01

Solar radiation is the main driver of the Earth's climate. Measuring solar radiation and analysing its interaction with clouds are essential for the understanding of the climate system. The EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) generates satellite-based, high-quality climate data records, with a focus on the energy balance and water cycle. Here, multiple of these data records are analyzed in a common framework to assess the consistency in trends and spatio-temporal variability of surface solar radiation, top-of-atmosphere reflected solar radiation and cloud fraction. This multi-parameter analysis focuses on Europe and covers the time period from 1992 to 2015. A high correlation between these three variables has been found over Europe. An overall consistency of the climate data records reveals an increase of surface solar radiation and a decrease in top-of-atmosphere reflected radiation. In addition, those trends are confirmed by negative trends in cloud cover. This consistency documents the high quality and stability of the CM SAF climate data records, which are mostly derived independently from each other. The results of this study indicate that one of the main reasons for the positive trend in surface solar radiation since the 1990's is a decrease in cloud coverage even if an aerosol contribution cannot be completely ruled out.

Modeling Systematic Change in Stopover Duration Does Not Improve Bias in Trends Estimated from Migration Counts.

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Tara L Crewe

Full Text Available The use of counts of unmarked migrating animals to monitor long term population trends assumes independence of daily counts and a constant rate of detection. However, migratory stopovers often last days or weeks, violating the assumption of count independence. Further, a systematic change in stopover duration will result in a change in the probability of detecting individuals once, but also in the probability of detecting individuals on more than one sampling occasion. We tested how variation in stopover duration influenced accuracy and precision of population trends by simulating migration count data with known constant rate of population change and by allowing daily probability of survival (an index of stopover duration to remain constant, or to vary randomly, cyclically, or increase linearly over time by various levels. Using simulated datasets with a systematic increase in stopover duration, we also tested whether any resulting bias in population trend could be reduced by modeling the underlying source of variation in detection, or by subsampling data to every three or five days to reduce the incidence of recounting. Mean bias in population trend did not differ significantly from zero when stopover duration remained constant or varied randomly over time, but bias and the detection of false trends increased significantly with a systematic increase in stopover duration. Importantly, an increase in stopover duration over time resulted in a compounding effect on counts due to the increased probability of detection and of recounting on subsequent sampling occasions. Under this scenario, bias in population trend could not be modeled using a covariate for stopover duration alone. Rather, to improve inference drawn about long term population change using counts of unmarked migrants, analyses must include a covariate for stopover duration, as well as incorporate sampling modifications (e.g., subsampling to reduce the probability that individuals will

Long term spatial and temporal rainfall trends and homogeneity analysis in Wainganga basin, Central India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arun Kumar Taxak

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Gridded rainfall data of 0.5×0.5° resolution (CRU TS 3.21 was analysed to study long term spatial and temporal trends on annual and seasonal scales in Wainganga river basin located in Central India during 1901–2012. After testing the presence of autocorrelation, Mann–Kendall (Modified Mann–Kendall test was applied to non-auto correlated (auto correlated series to detect the trends in rainfall data. Theil and Sen׳s slope estimator test was used for finding the magnitude of change over a time period. For detecting the most probable change year, Pettitt–Mann–Whitney test was applied. The Rainfall series was then divided into two partial duration series for finding changes in trends before and after the change year. Arc GIS was used to explore spatial patterns of the trends over the entire basin. Though most of the grid points shows a decreasing trend in annual rainfall, only seven grids has a significant decreasing trend during 1901–2012. On the basis of seasonal trend analysis, non-significant increasing trend is observed only in post monsoon season while seven grid points show significant decreasing trend in monsoon rainfall and non-significant in pre-monsoon and winter rainfall over the last 112 years. During the study period, overall a 8.45% decrease in annual rainfall is estimated. The most probable year of change was found to be 1948 in annual and monsoonal rainfall. There is an increasing rainfall trend in the basin during the period 1901–1948, which is reversed during the period 1949–2012 resulting in decreasing rainfall trend in the basin. Homogeneous trends in annual and seasonal rainfall over a grid points is exhibited in the basin by van Belle and Hughes׳ homogeneity trend test.

KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT: AN OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH TRENDS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Burcu KÖR

2017-12-01

Full Text Available As a young and interdisciplinary field, Knowledge Management (KM holds a crucial role in scientific research and development of knowledge-intensive economies.  This study elaborates on the methods used in previous studies regarding the research trends of KM and their contribution to the discipline by examining the KM literature. The purpose of the study is to determine the current research trends of KM by analysing KM citation classics and examining their characteristics as well as presenting a holistic framework of KM publications from the results of citation analysis. A total of 152 articles published in peer review journals between the years 2010-2014 were analysed. As a result of the analysis, a holistic KM framework was developed in order to contribute to a consensus of KM field. The results of the study reveals that the coverage of KM articles expanded into a broad spectrum of concepts, disciplines and environment.

Mobile eHealth interventions for obesity: a timely opportunity to leverage convergence trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Tufano, James T; Karras, Bryant T

2005-12-20

Obesity is often cited as the most prevalent chronic health condition and highest priority public health problem in the United States. There is a limited but growing body of evidence suggesting that mobile eHealth behavioral interventions, if properly designed, may be effective in promoting and sustaining successful weight loss and weight maintenance behavior changes. This paper reviews the current literature on the successes and failures of public health, provider-administered, and self-managed behavioral health interventions for weight loss. The prevailing theories of health behavior change are discussed from the perspective of how this knowledge can serve as an evidence base to inform the design of mobile eHealth weight loss interventions. Tailored informational interventions, which, in recent years, have proven to be the most effective form of conventional health behavior intervention for weight loss, are discussed. Lessons learned from the success of conventional tailored informational interventions and the early successes of desktop computer-assisted self-help weight management interventions are presented, as are design principles suggested by Social Cognitive Theory and the Social Marketing Model. Relevant computing and communications technology convergence trends are also discussed. The recent trends in rapid advancement, convergence, and public adoption of Web-enabled cellular telephone and wireless personal digital assistant (PDA) devices provide timely opportunities to deliver the mass customization capabilities, reach, and interactivity required for the development, administration, and adoption of effective population-level eHealth tailored informational interventions for obesity.

[Regional differences in the development of hospitalizations : An effect of different demographic trends?

Science.gov (United States)

Nowossadeck, Enno; Prütz, Franziska

2018-03-01

Population aging and population decline in many regions of the Federal Republic of Germany are key elements of demographic change. In the regions concerned there is a rising number of older people and, simultaneously, a declining population. So far, the consequences of regional shrinkage and growth for inpatient care don't seem to have been analysed very well. This paper analyses the influence of population aging and declining/increasing population (demographic factors) as well as other, non-demographic factors on the number of hospitalizations in Germany and the Federal States since 2000.One result of the analysis is that there are major differences between the Federal States. The analysis shows, for example, an increase of hospitalizations in Berlin while in Saxony-Anhalt the number of hospitalizations declines. The increase in Berlin was the result of population aging and, to a lower extent, an increase in population. In Saxony-Anhalt the declining population resulted in a decreasing number of hospitalizations. Population aging and non-demographic factors were not able to compensate this trend.Overall, the effect of demographic factors on the number of hospitalizations remains constant over time. Short-term changes of hospitalizations are due to non-demographic factors, such as epidemiological trends, (for example trends of incidence or prevalence), or structural changes of health care service (for example patients shifting between different sectors of health care or the introduction of new reimbursement systems).

What Buys Happiness? Analyzing Trends in Subjective Well-Being in 15 European Countries, 1973-2002

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjørnskov, Christian; Gupta, Nabanita Datta

Trends in life satisfaction are examined across 15 European countries employing a modified version of Kendall's Tau. Analyses show that GDP growth relative to growth in the preceding period is a determinant of the trends; the same holds for the growth in life expectancy while the contemporaneous ...... growth in the current account balance exerts a positive influence. Relative unemployment growth becomes significant when interacted with a measure of political ideology. The effects of relative GDP growth vary with median ideology.......Trends in life satisfaction are examined across 15 European countries employing a modified version of Kendall's Tau. Analyses show that GDP growth relative to growth in the preceding period is a determinant of the trends; the same holds for the growth in life expectancy while the contemporaneous...

Time Trends over 16 Years in Incidence-Rates of Autism Spectrum Disorders across the Lifespan Based on Nationwide Danish Register Data

Science.gov (United States)

Jensen, Christina Mohr; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Lauritsen, Marlene Briciet

2014-01-01

This study investigated time trends and associated factors of incidence rates of diagnosed autism spectrum disorders (ASD) across the lifespan from 1995 to 2010, using data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry. First time diagnosis of childhood autism, atypical autism, Asperger's syndrome, or pervasive developmental…

Trends in US home food preparation and consumption: analysis of national nutrition surveys and time use studies from 1965-1966 to 2007-2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Lindsey P; Ng, Shu Wen; Popkin, Barry M

2013-04-11

It has been well-documented that Americans have shifted towards eating out more and cooking at home less. However, little is known about whether these trends have continued into the 21st century, and whether these trends are consistent amongst low-income individuals, who are increasingly the target of public health programs that promote home cooking. The objective of this study is to examine how patterns of home cooking and home food consumption have changed from 1965 to 2008 by socio-demographic groups. This is a cross-sectional analysis of data from 6 nationally representative US dietary surveys and 6 US time-use studies conducted between 1965 and 2008. Subjects are adults aged 19 to 60 years (n= 38,565 for dietary surveys and n=55,424 for time-use surveys). Weighted means of daily energy intake by food source, proportion who cooked, and time spent cooking were analyzed for trends from 1965-1966 to 2007-2008 by gender and income. T-tests were conducted to determine statistical differences over time. The percentage of daily energy consumed from home food sources and time spent in food preparation decreased significantly for all socioeconomic groups between 1965-1966 and 2007-2008 (p ≤ 0.001), with the largest declines occurring between 1965 and 1992. In 2007-2008, foods from the home supply accounted for 65 to 72% of total daily energy, with 54 to 57% reporting cooking activities. The low income group showed the greatest decline in the proportion cooking, but consumed more daily energy from home sources and spent more time cooking than high income individuals in 2007-2008 (p ≤ 0.001). US adults have decreased consumption of foods from the home supply and reduced time spent cooking since 1965, but this trend appears to have leveled off, with no substantial decrease occurring after the mid-1990's. Across socioeconomic groups, people consume the majority of daily energy from the home food supply, yet only slightly more than half spend any time cooking on a given

Modeling trends of health and health related indicators in Ethiopia (1995-2008: a time-series study

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Nigatu Tilahun H

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Federal Ministry of Health of Ethiopia has been publishing Health and Health related indicators of the country annually since 1987 E.C. These indicators have been of high importance in indicating the status of health in the country in those years. However, the trends/patterns of these indicators and the factors related to the trends have not yet been investigated in a systematic manner. In addition, there were minimal efforts to develop a model for predicting future values of Health and Health related indicators based on the current trend. Objectives The overall aim of this study was to analyze trends of and develop model for prediction of Health and Health related indicators. More specifically, it described the trends of Health and Health related indicators, identified determinants of mortality and morbidity indicators and developed model for predicting future values of MDG indicators. Methods This study was conducted on Health and Health related indicators of Ethiopia from the year 1987 E.C to 2000 E.C. Key indicators of Mortality and Morbidity, Health service coverage, Health systems resources, Demographic and socio-economic, and Risk factor indicators were extracted and analyzed. The trends in these indicators were established using trend analysis techniques. The determinants of the established trends were identified using ARIMA models in STATA. The trend-line equations were then used to predict future values of the indicators. Results Among the mortality indicators considered in this study, it was only Maternal Mortality Ratio that showed statistically significant decrement within the study period. The trends of Total Fertility Rate, physician per 100,000 population, skilled birth attendance and postnatal care coverage were found to have significant association with Maternal Mortality Ratio trend. There was a reversal of malaria parasite prevalence in 1999 E.C from Plasmodium Falciparum to Plasmodium Vivax. Based on

Estimation of river and stream temperature trends under haphazard sampling

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, Brian R.; Lyubchich, Vyacheslav; Gel, Yulia R.; Rogala, James T.; Robertson, Dale M.; Wei, Xiaoqiao

2015-01-01

Long-term temporal trends in water temperature in rivers and streams are typically estimated under the assumption of evenly-spaced space-time measurements. However, sampling times and dates associated with historical water temperature datasets and some sampling designs may be haphazard. As a result, trends in temperature may be confounded with trends in time or space of sampling which, in turn, may yield biased trend estimators and thus unreliable conclusions. We address this concern using multilevel (hierarchical) linear models, where time effects are allowed to vary randomly by day and date effects by year. We evaluate the proposed approach by Monte Carlo simulations with imbalance, sparse data and confounding by trend in time and date of sampling. Simulation results indicate unbiased trend estimators while results from a case study of temperature data from the Illinois River, USA conform to river thermal assumptions. We also propose a new nonparametric bootstrap inference on multilevel models that allows for a relatively flexible and distribution-free quantification of uncertainties. The proposed multilevel modeling approach may be elaborated to accommodate nonlinearities within days and years when sampling times or dates typically span temperature extremes.

Validation of deep freezing of pilot samples for checking of time stability of indirect analyses of basic milk composition and for their long shelf-life

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oto Hanuš

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Essential part of raw milk component measurement is indirect infraanalyse. The checking of time measurement stability is important there. The preparation of pilot samples was described. Information about deep frozen milk pilot sample stability are sporadic. Aim of this work was to verify the stability of long-term stored and deep frozen pilot samples (FPSs. Pilot samples were frozen in liquid nitrogen bath −196 °C and after that stored at −21 °C for one month (A and more months (B till analyse. The pilot samples were measured by CombiFoss 6000: fat F (%; protein CP (%; lactose L (%; casein C (%; solid non fat SNF (%; urea U (mg/100ml; somatic cell count SCC (ths./ml. In the short-term (A experiment the impact of freezing on pilot milk samples was relatively small, in the framework of acceptable value of repeatability (±0.02 % for components. The stability of values of FPSs was better according to standard deviations for important F evaluation in H (Holstein breed samples. The repeatability of values of FPSs in the time was very good for other components. The repeatability was better for SCC in J (Jersey breed samples (±16.5 thousands/ml. That is why the higher variability (±30.1 thousands/ml in H sample is visible less sceptically. The apparent result trends were not observable in the repeatability development of important milk indicators in FPSs. The mild trend was only in CP, but this trend covered absolutely very small shift (variation range. There are only oscillations, which are similar between J and H samples. It is possible to attribute these oscillations rather to instrument effects than to sample effects. The oscilations were markedly higher in the long-term (B experiment. Between J and H samples the oscilations were very similar in curves F and L. It is also possible to attribute them more to instrumental effects. The repeatability values (standard deviations sd of FPSs were mostly lower than ±0.06 %. It is acceptable for

Evaluating an animated and static time series map of District Six: A ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Visualization of spatial information is an important aspect in the representation of map displays. Maps today are visually adapted to a variety of mediums in displaying spatial information temporally and as time series phenomena. GIS technology has incorporated tools for analysing these spatio-temporal trends. However ...

New content, design, and marketing trends in commercial publishing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leonardo Blažević

2009-07-01

Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to analyse the actual status of book publishing in Croatia, envisage the trends of its future development and, by analyzing the current state of affairs and new book marketing trends, draw conclusions as to which directions the publishing companies should take in order to survive on the market. The aims stated as such result from the author’s research and review of the business operations of the ‘Naklada Ljevak’ publishing company, and from the monitoring of relevant home and foreign literature in the field of marketing in general as well as specialized book marketing literature. In the introductory part the author defines publishing and its amphibious nature that lies in the fact that publishing is at the same time the process of creation and distribution of knowledge and culture, as well as a business resulting in education, as well as in entertainment. The following chapter offers an explanation of the most important facts required to understand the current publishing marketing (globalization, huge sales chains, fierce competition, ever lower standard of living in Croatia… and lists the marketing programme elements applicable to publishing. Further on, the focus shifts on the book as a product and a part of publishing marketing. It mentions the economic and business trends that have affected the development of publishing as an industry over the past sixty years, and the book as a product. New book content trends have been elaborated as well: novels on exotic countries, current affairs issues, autobiographies and biographies, self-help manuals and titles offering ‘instant-knowledge’. There is a definition and explanation of trends that relate to the book as a material product such as cover design, format, binding, types of print paper and technical features such as layout, margins, font size and spacing. 

Spatiotemporal trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices over Upper Tapi Basin, India

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Priyank J.; Loliyana, V. D.; S. R., Resmi; Timbadiya, P. V.; Patel, P. L.

2017-12-01

The flood risk across the globe is intensified due to global warming and subsequent increase in extreme temperature and precipitation. The long-term trends in extreme rainfall (1944-2013) and temperature (1969-2012) indices have been investigated at annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales using nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK), modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sen's slope estimator tests. The extreme rainfall and temperature indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI), have been analyzed at finer spatial scales for trend detection. The results of trend analyses indicate decreasing trend in annual total rainfall, significant decreasing trend in rainy days, and increasing trend in rainfall intensity over the basin. The seasonal rainfall has been found to decrease for all the seasons except postmonsoon, which could affect the rain-fed agriculture in the basin. The 1- and 5-day annual maximum rainfalls exhibit mixed trends, wherein part of the basin experiences increasing trend, while other parts experience a decreasing trend. The increase in dry spells and concurrent decrease in wet spells are also observed over the basin. The extreme temperature indices revealed increasing trends in hottest and coldest days, while decreasing trends in coldest night are found over most parts of the basin. Further, the diurnal temperature range is also found to increase due to warming tendency in maximum temperature (T max) at a faster rate compared to the minimum temperature (T min). The increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall in the basin has been attributed to the increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperatures, reducing forest cover, rapid pace of urbanization, increase in human population, and thereby increase in the aerosol content in the atmosphere. The findings of the present study would significantly help in sustainable water resource planning, better decision-making for policy framework, and setting up

Inter-fraction bladder filling variations and time trends for cervical cancer patients assessed with a portable 3-dimensional ultrasound bladder scanner

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmad, Rozilawati; Hoogeman, Mischa S.; Quint, Sandra; Mens, Jan Willem; Pree, Ilse de; Heijmen, Ben J.M.

2008-01-01

Background and Purpose: For cervical cancer patients, bladder filling variations may result in inadequate EBRT target coverage, unless large safety margins are used. For a group of patients who received full bladder instructions, inter-fraction variations and time trends in bladder volume were quantified, and a 3D ultrasound (US) scanner was tested for on-line bladder volume measurements. Methods and materials: For 24 patients, the bladder volume was measured with US at the time of the planning CT scan, and twice weekly during the course of RT. Comparisons of US with planning CT were used to assess the bladder scanner accuracy. Patients were treated in prone on a belly board, EPID images were acquired to correlate set-up errors with bladder filling variations. Results: Measured US and CT bladder volumes were strongly correlated (R = 0.97, slope 1.1 ± 0.1). The population mean bladder volume at planning of 378 ± 209 ml (1 SD) reduced to 109 ± 88 ml (1 SD) in week 6, a reduction by 71% (average reduction 46 ml/week), revealing a large inter-fraction time trend. Intra-patient variation in bladder volume during RT was 168 ml (1 SD) (range 70-266 ml). Rotation around the LR axis was significantly correlated with bladder volume changes. Conclusions: Despite a full bladder instruction, bladder volumes reduced dramatically during treatment, implying large time trends in target position of these patients. The portable US scanner provides a quick and reliable measurement of the bladder volume, which might assist future online treatment adaptation

Time trends in burdens of cadmium, lead, and mercury in the population of northern Sweden

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wennberg, Maria; Lundh, Thomas; Bergdahl, Ingvar A.; Hallmans, Goeran; Jansson, Jan-Hakan; Stegmayr, Birgitta; Custodio, Hipolito M.; Skerfving, Staffan

2006-01-01

The time trends of exposure to heavy metals are not adequately known. This is a worldwide problem with regard to the basis for preventive actions and evaluation of their effects. This study addresses time trends for the three toxic elements cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), and lead (Pb). Concentrations in erythrocytes (Ery) were determined in a subsample of the population-based MONICA surveys from 1990, 1994, and 1999 in a total of 600 men and women aged 25-74 years. The study took place in the two northernmost counties in Sweden. To assess the effect of changes in the environment, adjustments were made for life-style factors that are determinants of exposure. Annual decreases of 5-6% were seen for Ery-Pb levels (adjusted for age and changes in alcohol intake) and Ery-Hg levels (adjusted for age and changes in fish intake). Ery-Cd levels (adjusted for age) showed a similar significant decrease in smoking men. It is concluded that for Pb and maybe also Hg the actions against pollution during recent decades have caused a rapid decrease of exposure; for Hg the decreased use of dental amalgam may also have had an influence. For Cd, the decline in Ery-Cd was seen only in smokers, indicating that Cd exposure from tobacco has decreased, while other environmental sources of Cd have not changed significantly. To further improve the health status in Sweden, it is important to decrease the pollution of Cd, and actions against smoking in the community are important

Change Points in the Population Trends of Aerial-Insectivorous Birds in North America: Synchronized in Time across Species and Regions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam C Smith

Full Text Available North American populations of aerial insectivorous birds are in steep decline. Aerial insectivores (AI are a group of bird species that feed almost exclusively on insects in flight, and include swallows, swifts, nightjars, and flycatchers. The causes of the declines are not well understood. Indeed, it is not clear when the declines began, or whether the declines are shared across all species in the group (e.g., caused by changes in flying insect populations or specific to each species (e.g., caused by changes in species' breeding habitat. A recent study suggested that population trends of aerial insectivores changed for the worse in the 1980s. If there was such a change point in trends of the group, understanding its timing and geographic pattern could help identify potential causes of the decline. We used a hierarchical Bayesian, penalized regression spline, change point model to estimate group-level change points in the trends of 22 species of AI, across 153 geographic strata of North America. We found evidence for group-level change points in 85% of the strata. Change points for flycatchers (FC were distinct from those for swallows, swifts and nightjars (SSN across North America, except in the Northeast, where all AI shared the same group-level change points. During the 1980s, there was a negative change point across most of North America, in the trends of SSN. For FC, the group-level change points were more geographically variable, and in many regions there were two: a positive change point followed by a negative change point. This group-level synchrony in AI population trends is likely evidence of a response to a common environmental factor(s with similar effects on many species across broad spatial extents. The timing and geographic patterns of the change points that we identify here should provide a spring-board for research into the causes behind aerial insectivore declines.

International trends in solid-state lighting : analyses of the article and patent literature.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tsao, Jeffrey Yeenien; Huey, Mark C. (Strategic Perspectives, Incorporated, McLean, VA); Boyack, Kevin W.; Miksovic, Ann E. (Strategic Perspectives, Incorporated, McLean, VA)

2008-07-01

We present an analysis of the literature of solid-state lighting, based on a comprehensive dataset of 35,851 English-language articles and 12,420 U.S. patents published or issued during the years 1977-2004 in the foundational knowledge domain of electroluminescent materials and phenomena. The dataset was created using a complex, iteratively developed search string. The records in the dataset were then partitioned according to: whether they are articles or patents, their publication or issue date, their national or continental origin, whether the active electroluminescent material was inorganic or organic, and which of a number of emergent knowledge sub-domains they aggregate into on the basis of bibliographic coupling. From these partitionings, we performed a number of analyses, including: identification of knowledge sub-domains of historical and recent importance, and trends over time of the contributions of various nations and continents to the knowledge domain and its sub-domains. Among the key results: (1) The knowledge domain as a whole has been growing quickly: the average growth rates of the inorganic and organic knowledge sub-domains have been 8%/yr and 25%/yr, respectively, compared to average growth rates less than 5%/yr for English-language articles and U.S. patents in other knowledge domains. The growth rate of the organic knowledge sub-domain is so high that its historical dominance by the inorganic knowledge sub-domain will, at current trajectories, be reversed in the coming decade. (2) Amongst nations, the U.S. is the largest contributor to the overall knowledge domain, but Japan is on a trajectory to become the largest contributor within the coming half-decade. Amongst continents, Asia became the largest contributor during the past half-decade, overwhelmingly so for the organic knowledge sub-domain. (3) The relative contributions to the article and patent datasets differ for the major continents: North America contributing relatively more patents

Breast cancer screening in Italy: evaluating key performance indicators for time trends and activity volumes.

Science.gov (United States)

Giordano, Livia; Castagno, Roberta; Giorgi, Daniela; Piccinelli, Cristiano; Ventura, Leonardo; Segnan, Nereo; Zappa, Marco

2015-01-01

Together with the National centre for screening monitoring (ONS), GISMa supports annual collection of data on national breast screening activities. Aggregated data on implementation and performance are gathered through a standardized form to calculate process and impact indicators. Analyzed data belong to 153 local programmes in the period 2006-2011 (2006-2012 for participation rate only). During the whole period, Italian crude participation rate exceeded GISMa's acceptable standard (50%), even though a higher participation in northern and central Italy compared to southern Italy and Islands was observed. Time trend analysis of diagnostic indicators confirmed in 2011 an adequate quality of breast screening performance, especially at subsequent screening. Recall rate at initial screening did not reach the acceptable standard (performance was achieved at subsequent screening. The same trend was followed by the overall detection rate and positive predictive value. They both showed a progressive reduction (from 6.2‰ in 2006 to 4.5‰ in 2011 for DR and from 8.0% in 2006 to 5.2% in 2011 for PPV, respectively) at initial screening and a good, stable trend at subsequent screening. Activity volume analysis shows that in programmes with greater activity (test/year ≥10,000) RR at both initial and subsequent screening has a better performance. This is also true for DR and PPV where programmes with high volumes of activity do better, especially when compared with those that interpret fewer than 5,000 mammograms per year. In spite of a few limits, these results are reassuring, and they reward the efforts made by screening professionals. It is therefore important to continue to monitor screening indicators and suggest, test, and evaluate new strategies for continuous improvement.

An analysis of socio-demographic patterns in child malnutrition trends using Ghana demographic and health survey data in the period 1993–2008

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background A small but growing body of research indicates that progress in reducing child malnutrition is substantially uneven from place to place, even down to the district level within countries. Yet child malnutrition prevalence and trend estimates available for public health planning are mostly available only at the level of global regions and/or at country level. To support carefully targeted intervention to reduce child malnutrition, public health planners and policy-makers require access to more refined prevalence data and trend analyses than are presently available. Responding to this need in Ghana, this report presents trends in child malnutrition prevalence in socio-demographic groups within the country’s geographic regions. Methods The study uses the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS) data. The GDHS are nationally representative cross-sectional surveys that have been carried out in many developing countries. These surveys constitute one of the richest sources of information currently available to examine time trends in child malnutrition. Data from four surveys were used for the analysis: 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008. Results The results show statistically significant declining trends at the national level for stunting (F (1, 7204) = 7.89, p ≤ .005), underweight (F (1, 7441) = 44.87, p ≤ .001) and wasting (F (1, 7130) = 6.19, p ≤ .013). However, analyses of the sex-specific trends revealed that the declining trends in stunting and wasting were significant among males but not among females. In contrast to the national trend, there were significantly increasing trends in stunting for males (F (1, 2004) = 3.92, p ≤ .048) and females (F (1, 2004) = 4.34, p ≤ .037) whose mothers had higher than primary education, while the trends decreased significantly for males and females whose mothers had no education. Conclusions At the national level in Ghana, child malnutrition is significantly declining

Outdoor recreation activity trends by volume segments: U.S. and Northeast market analyses, 1982-1989

Science.gov (United States)

Rodney B. Warnick

1992-01-01

The purpose of this review was to examine volume segmentation within three selected outdoor recreational activities -- swimming, hunting and downhill skiing over an eight-year period, from 1982 through 1989 at the national level and within the Northeast Region of the U.S.; and to determine if trend patterns existed within any of these activities when the market size...

Effects of MHRA drug safety advice on time trends in prescribing volume and indices of clinical toxicity for quinine

Science.gov (United States)

Acheampong, Paul; Cooper, Gill; Khazaeli, Behshad; Lupton, David J; White, Sue; May, Margaret T; Thomas, Simon H L

2013-01-01

Aims To ascertain the effects of the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency's (MHRA) safety update in June 2010 on the volume of prescribing of quinine and on indices of quinine toxicity. Methods We analysed quarterly primary care total and quinine prescribing data for England and quinine prescribing volume for individual Primary Care Trusts in the North East of England from 2007/8 to 2011/12 obtained from the ePACT.net database. We also analysed quinine toxicity enquiries to the National Poisons Information Service (NPIS) via Toxbase® and by telephone between 2004/5 and 2011/12. Joinpoint regression and Pearson's correlation tests were used to ascertain changes in trends in prescribing and indices of toxicity and associations between prescribing and indices of toxicity, respectively. Results Total prescribing continued to increase, but annual growth in quinine prescribing in England declined from 6.0 to −0.6% following the MHRA update [difference −0.04 (95% confidence interval −0.07 to −0.01) quinine prescriptions per 100 patients per quarter, P = 0.0111]. Much larger reductions were observed in Primary Care Trusts that introduced comprehensive prescribing reviews. The previously increasing trend in Toxbase® quinine searches was reversed [difference −19.76 (95% confidence interval −39.28 to −9.20) user sessions per quarter, P = 0.0575]. Telephone enquiries to NPIS for quinine have declined, with stabilization of the proportion of moderate to severe cases of quinine poisoning since the update. Conclusions The MHRA advice was followed by limited reductions in the growth in quinine prescribing and in indicators of quinine overdose and toxicity. Quinine prescribing, however, remains common, and further efforts are needed to reduce availability and use. PMID:23594200

Trends in smoking prevalence in Danish adults, 1964-1994. The influence of gender, age, and education

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Osler, M; Prescott, E; Gottschau, A

1998-01-01

BACKGROUND: Studies of time trends in smoking prevalence provide a better understanding of the determinants of smoking. The present study analyses changes over time in the prevalence of smoking and heavy smoking in relation to sex, age, and education. METHODS: Data on smoking behaviour were...... collected by questionnaire in random samples of the general population in the area of Copenhagen. The database used included 71,842 measurements of smoking behaviour for 32,156 subjects aged 30 years or more, who had been examined at intervals between 1964 and 1994. In bi- and multivariate analyses...... the effects of sex, age, education, time period, and study group on the prevalence of smoking and of heavy smoking were assessed. RESULTS: Smoking was least prevalent in women, in the oldest age group (more than 70 years), and among those with 8 years or more of school education. During the study period (from...

Study on homogenization of synthetic GNSS-retrieved IWV time series and its impact on trend estimates with autoregressive noise

Science.gov (United States)

Klos, Anna; Pottiaux, Eric; Van Malderen, Roeland; Bock, Olivier; Bogusz, Janusz

2017-04-01

A synthetic benchmark dataset of Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) was created within the activity of "Data homogenisation" of sub-working group WG3 of COST ES1206 Action. The benchmark dataset was created basing on the analysis of IWV differences retrieved by Global Positioning System (GPS) International GNSS Service (IGS) stations using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecats (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA-Interim). Having analysed a set of 120 series of IWV differences (ERAI-GPS) derived for IGS stations, we delivered parameters of a number of gaps and breaks for every certain station. Moreover, we estimated values of trends, significant seasonalities and character of residuals when deterministic model was removed. We tested five different noise models and found that a combination of white and autoregressive processes of first order describes the stochastic part with a good accuracy. Basing on this analysis, we performed Monte Carlo simulations of 25 years long data with two different types of noise: white as well as combination of white and autoregressive processes. We also added few strictly defined offsets, creating three variants of synthetic dataset: easy, less-complicated and fully-complicated. The 'Easy' dataset included seasonal signals (annual, semi-annual, 3 and 4 months if present for a particular station), offsets and white noise. The 'Less-complicated' dataset included above-mentioned, as well as the combination of white and first order autoregressive processes (AR(1)+WH). The 'Fully-complicated' dataset included, beyond above, a trend and gaps. In this research, we show the impact of manual homogenisation on the estimates of trend and its error. We also cross-compare the results for three above-mentioned datasets, as the synthetized noise type might have a significant influence on manual homogenisation. Therefore, it might mostly affect the values of trend and their uncertainties when inappropriately handled. In a future, the synthetic dataset

Time trends in exposure of cattle to bovine spongiform encephalopathy and cohort effect in France and Italy: value of the classical Age-Period-Cohort approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Sala, Carole; Ru, Giuseppe

2009-09-18

The Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis is routinely used for time trend analysis of cancer incidence or mortality rates, but in veterinary epidemiology, there are still only a few examples of this application. APC models were recently used to model the French epidemic assuming that the time trend for BSE was mainly due to a cohort effect in relation to the control measures that may have modified the BSE exposure of cohorts over time. We used a categorical APC analysis which did not require any functional form for the effect of the variables, and examined second differences to estimate the variation of the BSE trend. We also reanalysed the French epidemic and performed a simultaneous analysis of Italian data using more appropriate birth cohort categories for comparison. We used data from the exhaustive surveillance carried out in France and Italy between 2001 and 2007, and comparatively described the trend of the epidemic in both countries. At the end, the shape and irregularities of the trends were discussed in light of the main control measures adopted to control the disease. In Italy a decrease in the epidemic became apparent from 1996, following the application of rendering standards for the processing of specific risk material (SRM). For the French epidemic, the pattern of second differences in the birth cohorts confirmed the beginning of the decrease from 1995, just after the implementation of the meat and bone meal (MBM) ban for all ruminants (1994). The APC analysis proved to be highly suitable for the study of the trend in BSE epidemics and was helpful in understanding the effects of management and control of the disease. Additionally, such an approach may help in the implementation of changes in BSE regulations.

Trend analysis of mycotoxins in animal feed

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Adamse, P.; Egmond, van H.J.; Driessen, J.J.M.; Rijk, de T.C.; Jong, de J.; Nijs, de W.C.M.

2012-01-01

Feed materials were analysed for the mycotoxins deoxynivalenol, ochratoxin A, zearalenone, aflatoxin B1, fumonisin B1 and B2, and HT-2- and T-2-toxins. In this report trends in the average content during the period 2001-2009 are reported for these mycotoxins. Monitoring data from the National Feed

Ecohydrological index, native fish, and climate trends and relationships in the Kansas River basin

Science.gov (United States)

This study sought to quantify climatological and hydrological trends and their relationship to presence and distribution of two native aquatic species in the Kansas River Basin over the past half century. Trend analyses were applied to indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHAs) ...

Recent trends in 30-day mortality in patients with blunt splenic injury: A nationwide trauma database study in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Tanaka, Chie; Tagami, Takashi; Matsumoto, Hisashi; Matsuda, Kiyoshi; Kim, Shiei; Moroe, Yuta; Fukuda, Reo; Unemoto, Kyoko; Yokota, Hiroyuki

2017-01-01

Splenic injury frequently occurs after blunt abdominal trauma; however, limited epidemiological data regarding mortality are available. We aimed to investigate mortality rate trends after blunt splenic injury in Japan. We retrospectively identified 1,721 adults with blunt splenic injury (American Association for the Surgery of Trauma splenic injury scale grades III-V) from the 2004-2014 Japan Trauma Data Bank. We grouped the records of these patients into 3 time phases: phase I (2004-2008), phase II (2009-2012), and phase III (2013-2014). Over the 3 phases, we analysed 30-day mortality rates and investigated their association with the prevalence of certain initial interventions (Mantel-Haenszel trend test). We further performed multiple imputation and multivariable analyses for comparing the characteristics and outcomes of patients who underwent TAE or splenectomy/splenorrhaphy, adjusting for known potential confounders and for within-hospital clustering using generalised estimating equation. Over time, there was a significant decrease in 30-day mortality after splenic injury (p splenic injury between 2004 and 2014, even after adjustment for within-hospital clustering and other factors independently associated with mortality. Over time, mortality rates decreased significantly after splenectomy/splenorrhaphy, but not after non-operative management. This information is useful for clinicians when making decisions about treatments for patients with blunt splenic injury.

SECULAR TRENDS AND LATITUDE GRADIENTS IN THE MALE-FEMALE RATIO AT BIRTH IN YUGOSLAVIA AND THE EX-YUGOSLAVIAN STATES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Victor Grech

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Latitude gradients and secular trends in Europe and North America have been found in the male-female ratio at birth (M/F: male births divided by total births which approximates 0.515. Methods: Annual national data for Yugoslavia and the post-Yugoslavia States for male and female live births were obtained from the World Health Organisation and analysed with contingency tables. Results: This study analysed 22,020,729 live births. There was a increasing trend in M/F prior to the breakup of the former Yugoslavia (1950–1990, p = 0.002, followed by a decreasing trend after 1990 (p = 0.02. A latitude gradient was also noted, with more males being born in southern, warmer latitudes (p < 0.0001. There was an overall excess of 42,753 male births based on an anticipated M/F of 0.515. Conclusion: M/F is decreasing in this region, similar to the rest of Europe and North America. A latitude gradient is also present with more males being born in warmer (more Southern latitudes (p < 0.0001, even in this small region and over the short time-frame studied.

Can guild- or site-specific contrasts in trends or phenology explain the changed role of the Dutch Wadden Sea for fish?

Science.gov (United States)

Tulp, Ingrid; van der Veer, Henk W.; Walker, Paddy; van Walraven, Lodewijk; Bolle, Loes J.

2017-09-01

The Wadden Sea bordering the Dutch, German and Danish coast, is traditionally a region with important functions for many fish species: as a nursery area for juveniles (marine juveniles), as a feeding area, as a transit to and from fresh water, and resident species complete their whole life cycle there. Because of indications that the importance of the Dutch Wadden Sea has changed drastically for many species during the past decades, we analysed and classified trends of 24 common fish species in the last 45 years, which were assigned to 5 different ecological guilds. Trends were examined for three Wadden Sea regions and compared to trends in the adjacent two North Sea coastal regions. For these analyses we made a combined use of two longterm time series: an annual beamtrawl survey, the Demeral Fish Survey (DFS) with a high spatial but poor seasonal resolution and a fyke series with a high seasonal but poor spatial resolution. We investigated for which species the DFS survey was appropriate for trend analysis, and we evaluated whether a change in timing may contribute to patterns in DFS time trends. Total fish biomass showed a similar pattern in all tidal basins with an increase from 1970 to 1980, a peak in the mid-1980s and a strong decline from 1980 to 2000, with a subsequent stable trend. The pattern in the coastal region deviated especially in the past 10 years, with a further decline along the Dutch Wadden coast and an increase along the mainland coast. Most dramatic declines throughout the Wadden Sea occurred in species belonging to the marine juvenile guild, notably plaice, sole and dab. A declining trend in marine juveniles is on-going in the western part, while it recently stabilised or even increased in the central and eastern part and in the coastal regions. Resident species showed more variable trends in the Wadden Sea with less pronounced directions: both increases and decreases occurred. In the coastal regions, several resident species have increased

Time series analyses of breathing patterns of lung cancer patients using nonlinear dynamical system theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Tewatia, D K; Tolakanahalli, R P; Paliwal, B R; Tomé, W A

2011-04-07

The underlying requirements for successful implementation of any efficient tumour motion management strategy are regularity and reproducibility of a patient's breathing pattern. The physiological act of breathing is controlled by multiple nonlinear feedback and feed-forward couplings. It would therefore be appropriate to analyse the breathing pattern of lung cancer patients in the light of nonlinear dynamical system theory. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the one-dimensional respiratory time series of lung cancer patients based on nonlinear dynamics and delay coordinate state space embedding. It is very important to select a suitable pair of embedding dimension 'm' and time delay 'τ' when performing a state space reconstruction. Appropriate time delay and embedding dimension were obtained using well-established methods, namely mutual information and the false nearest neighbour method, respectively. Establishing stationarity and determinism in a given scalar time series is a prerequisite to demonstrating that the nonlinear dynamical system that gave rise to the scalar time series exhibits a sensitive dependence on initial conditions, i.e. is chaotic. Hence, once an appropriate state space embedding of the dynamical system has been reconstructed, we show that the time series of the nonlinear dynamical systems under study are both stationary and deterministic in nature. Once both criteria are established, we proceed to calculate the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE), which is an invariant quantity under time delay embedding. The LLE for all 16 patients is positive, which along with stationarity and determinism establishes the fact that the time series of a lung cancer patient's breathing pattern is not random or irregular, but rather it is deterministic in nature albeit chaotic. These results indicate that chaotic characteristics exist in the respiratory waveform and techniques based on state space dynamics should be employed for tumour motion management.

Time series analyses of breathing patterns of lung cancer patients using nonlinear dynamical system theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tewatia, D K; Tolakanahalli, R P; Paliwal, B R; Tome, W A

2011-01-01

The underlying requirements for successful implementation of any efficient tumour motion management strategy are regularity and reproducibility of a patient's breathing pattern. The physiological act of breathing is controlled by multiple nonlinear feedback and feed-forward couplings. It would therefore be appropriate to analyse the breathing pattern of lung cancer patients in the light of nonlinear dynamical system theory. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the one-dimensional respiratory time series of lung cancer patients based on nonlinear dynamics and delay coordinate state space embedding. It is very important to select a suitable pair of embedding dimension 'm' and time delay 'τ' when performing a state space reconstruction. Appropriate time delay and embedding dimension were obtained using well-established methods, namely mutual information and the false nearest neighbour method, respectively. Establishing stationarity and determinism in a given scalar time series is a prerequisite to demonstrating that the nonlinear dynamical system that gave rise to the scalar time series exhibits a sensitive dependence on initial conditions, i.e. is chaotic. Hence, once an appropriate state space embedding of the dynamical system has been reconstructed, we show that the time series of the nonlinear dynamical systems under study are both stationary and deterministic in nature. Once both criteria are established, we proceed to calculate the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE), which is an invariant quantity under time delay embedding. The LLE for all 16 patients is positive, which along with stationarity and determinism establishes the fact that the time series of a lung cancer patient's breathing pattern is not random or irregular, but rather it is deterministic in nature albeit chaotic. These results indicate that chaotic characteristics exist in the respiratory waveform and techniques based on state space dynamics should be employed for tumour motion management.

Time series analyses of breathing patterns of lung cancer patients using nonlinear dynamical system theory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tewatia, D K; Tolakanahalli, R P; Paliwal, B R; Tome, W A, E-mail: tewatia@wisc.edu [Department of Human Oncology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

2011-04-07

The underlying requirements for successful implementation of any efficient tumour motion management strategy are regularity and reproducibility of a patient's breathing pattern. The physiological act of breathing is controlled by multiple nonlinear feedback and feed-forward couplings. It would therefore be appropriate to analyse the breathing pattern of lung cancer patients in the light of nonlinear dynamical system theory. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the one-dimensional respiratory time series of lung cancer patients based on nonlinear dynamics and delay coordinate state space embedding. It is very important to select a suitable pair of embedding dimension 'm' and time delay '{tau}' when performing a state space reconstruction. Appropriate time delay and embedding dimension were obtained using well-established methods, namely mutual information and the false nearest neighbour method, respectively. Establishing stationarity and determinism in a given scalar time series is a prerequisite to demonstrating that the nonlinear dynamical system that gave rise to the scalar time series exhibits a sensitive dependence on initial conditions, i.e. is chaotic. Hence, once an appropriate state space embedding of the dynamical system has been reconstructed, we show that the time series of the nonlinear dynamical systems under study are both stationary and deterministic in nature. Once both criteria are established, we proceed to calculate the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE), which is an invariant quantity under time delay embedding. The LLE for all 16 patients is positive, which along with stationarity and determinism establishes the fact that the time series of a lung cancer patient's breathing pattern is not random or irregular, but rather it is deterministic in nature albeit chaotic. These results indicate that chaotic characteristics exist in the respiratory waveform and techniques based on state space dynamics should be employed

Global Times once Again: Representative Democracy and Countervailing Trends in Iberoamerica

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis Roniger

2014-06-01

Full Text Available In the late 1990s and early 2000s democratic expectations were replaced by the discredit of democracy. Analyzing this trend, this study looks at the interplay of politics and the economic realm. It discusses the fragility and persistence of democracy and identifies the effect of recent macro-economic policies, the weakening of public goods, processes of dualization in forms of participation in the public domain. It also analyzes contrasting political trends, which involve some innovative projects institutionalizing democratic controls, but also new forms of populism and clientelism buttressed by poverty, unemployment and violence which reinforce the logic of exclusion. Finally, it suggests rethinking the public realm as a focus for the re-creation of sociability and a shared sense of future by improving public performance and efficacy, safeguarding public goods and thus promoting democratic sustainability in Iberoamerica.

FASHION TREND FOR A SILHOUETTE: BALENCIAGA CASE

OpenAIRE

ERTÜRK, Nilay; özüdoğru, şakir

2014-01-01

Fashion, in broad and accepted definition, is any temporary preference or a temporary new thing in any area of human life, which prevails for a certain period of time. The issue of how fashionable products would look like in a particular season is discussed under the concept of fashion trends. The main purpose of this study is to discuss the concept of fashion trends and the studies on predictions in fashion trends, to conduct a sample trend survey for a silhouette and observe whether or not ...

DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL DENTAL MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Veronica BULAT

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The paper analyses the key trends of the market, and segments the global dental equipment and consumables market by components and into various geographic regions in way of market size. It discusses the key market drivers, main players, restraints and opportunities of the global dental equipment and consumables market.

Governance in Ukrainian forestry: trends, impacts and remedies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nijnik, M.; Oskam, A.J.

2004-01-01

In this paper, we address governance by analysing the relevant institutions and investigating their impact on economic and environmental performance in Ukrainian forestry. The research questions are: how does the transition to a market economy affect the forest institutions and what are the trends,

Current trends in chloroplast genome research | Khan | African ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

comprise of DOGMA for annotation, SCAN-SE, ARAGON and PREP suit for RNA analyses and CG viewer for circular map construction/comparative analysis. Faster algorithms for gene-order based phylogenetic reconstruction and bootstrap analysis have attracted the attention of research community. Current trends in ...

Infodemiology of systemic lupus erythematous using Google Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Radin, M; Sciascia, S

2017-07-01

Objective People affected by chronic rheumatic conditions, such as systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), frequently rely on the Internet and search engines to look for terms related to their disease and its possible causes, symptoms and treatments. 'Infodemiology' and 'infoveillance' are two recent terms created to describe a new developing approach for public health, based on Big Data monitoring and data mining. In this study, we aim to investigate trends of Internet research linked to SLE and symptoms associated with the disease, applying a Big Data monitoring approach. Methods We analysed the large amount of data generated by Google Trends, considering 'lupus', 'relapse' and 'fatigue' in a 10-year web-based research. Google Trends automatically normalized data for the overall number of searches, and presented them as relative search volumes, in order to compare variations of different search terms across regions and periods. The Menn-Kendall test was used to evaluate the overall seasonal trend of each search term and possible correlation between search terms. Results We observed a seasonality for Google search volumes for lupus-related terms. In the Northern hemisphere, relative search volumes for 'lupus' were correlated with 'relapse' (τ = 0.85; p = 0.019) and with fatigue (τ = 0.82; p = 0.003), whereas in the Southern hemisphere we observed a significant correlation between 'fatigue' and 'relapse' (τ = 0.85; p = 0.018). Similarly, a significant correlation between 'fatigue' and 'relapse' (τ = 0.70; p < 0.001) was seen also in the Northern hemisphere. Conclusion Despite the intrinsic limitations of this approach, Internet-acquired data might represent a real-time surveillance tool and an alert for healthcare systems in order to plan the most appropriate resources in specific moments with higher disease burden.

TRANSIT TIMING OBSERVATIONS FROM KEPLER. V. TRANSIT TIMING VARIATION CANDIDATES IN THE FIRST SIXTEEN MONTHS FROM POLYNOMIAL MODELS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ford, Eric B. [Astronomy Department, University of Florida, 211 Bryant Space Sciences Center, Gainesville, FL 32111 (United States); Ragozzine, Darin; Holman, Matthew J. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Rowe, Jason F.; Barclay, Thomas; Borucki, William J.; Bryson, Stephen T.; Caldwell, Douglas A.; Kinemuchi, Karen; Koch, David G.; Lissauer, Jack J.; Still, Martin; Tenenbaum, Peter [NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States); Steffen, Jason H. [Fermilab Center for Particle Astrophysics, P.O. Box 500, MS 127, Batavia, IL 60510 (United States); Batalha, Natalie M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA 95192 (United States); Fabrycky, Daniel C. [UCO/Lick Observatory, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Gautier, Thomas N. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Ibrahim, Khadeejah A.; Uddin, Kamal [Orbital Sciences Corporation/NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States); Kjeldsen, Hans, E-mail: eford@astro.ufl.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Aarhus University, DK-8000 Aarhus C (Denmark); and others

2012-09-10

Transit timing variations provide a powerful tool for confirming and characterizing transiting planets, as well as detecting non-transiting planets. We report the results of an updated transit timing variation (TTV) analysis for 1481 planet candidates based on transit times measured during the first sixteen months of Kepler observations. We present 39 strong TTV candidates based on long-term trends (2.8% of suitable data sets). We present another 136 weaker TTV candidates (9.8% of suitable data sets) based on the excess scatter of TTV measurements about a linear ephemeris. We anticipate that several of these planet candidates could be confirmed and perhaps characterized with more detailed TTV analyses using publicly available Kepler observations. For many others, Kepler has observed a long-term TTV trend, but an extended Kepler mission will be required to characterize the system via TTVs. We find that the occurrence rate of planet candidates that show TTVs is significantly increased ({approx}68%) for planet candidates transiting stars with multiple transiting planet candidates when compared to planet candidates transiting stars with a single transiting planet candidate.

Comparison of trends and abrupt changes of the South Asia high from 1979 to 2014 in reanalysis and radiosonde datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Chunhua; Huang, Ying; Guo, Dong; Zhou, Shunwu; Hu, Kaixi; Liu, Yu

2018-05-01

The South Asian High (SAH) has an important influence on atmospheric circulation and the Asian climate in summer. However, current comparative analyses of the SAH are mostly between reanalysis datasets and there is a lack of sounding data. We therefore compared the climatology, trends and abrupt changes in the SAH in the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) dataset, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) dataset, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim (ERA-interim) dataset and radiosonde data from China using linear analysis and a sliding t-test. The trends in geopotential height in the control area of the SAH were positive in the JRA-55, NCEP-CFSR and ERA-interim datasets, but negative in the radiosonde data in the time period 1979-2014. The negative trends for the SAH were significant at the 90% confidence level in the radiosonde data from May to September. The positive trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset were significant at the 90% confidence level in May, July, August and September, but the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim were only significant at the 90% confidence level in September. The reasons for the differences in the trends of the SAH between the radiosonde data and the three reanalysis datasets in the time period 1979-2014 were updates to the sounding systems, changes in instrumentation and improvements in the radiation correction method for calculations around the year 2000. We therefore analyzed the trends in the two time periods of 1979-2000 and 2001-2014 separately. From 1979 to 2000, the negative SAH trends in the radiosonde data mainly agreed with the negative trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset, but were in contrast with the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim datasets. In 2001-2014, however, the trends in the SAH were positive in all four datasets and most of the trends in the radiosonde and NCEP-CFSR datasets were significant. It is

Retrospective evaluation of appliance price trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dale, Larry; Antinori, Camille; McNeil, Michael; McMahon, James E.; Sydny Fujita, K.

2009-01-01

Real prices of major appliances (refrigerators, dishwashers, heating and cooling equipment) have been falling since the late 1970s despite increases in appliance efficiency and other quality variables. This paper demonstrates that historic increases in efficiency over time, including those resulting from minimum efficiency standards, incur smaller price increases than were expected by the Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts made in conjunction with standards. This effect can be explained by technological innovation, which lowers the cost of efficiency, and by market changes contributing to lower markups and economies of scale in production of higher efficiency units. We reach four principal conclusions about appliance trends and retail price setting: 1.For the past several decades, the retail price of appliances has been steadily falling while efficiency has been increasing. 2.Past retail price predictions made by the DOE analyses of efficiency standards, assuming constant prices over time, have tended to overestimate retail prices. 3.The average incremental price to increase appliance efficiency has declined over time. DOE technical support documents have typically overestimated this incremental price and retail prices. 4.Changes in retail markups and economies of scale in production of more efficient appliances may have contributed to declines in prices of efficient appliances

Multi-year objective analyses of warm season ground-level ozone and PM2.5 over North America using real-time observations and Canadian operational air quality models

Science.gov (United States)

Robichaud, A.; Ménard, R.

2014-02-01

Multi-year objective analyses (OA) on a high spatiotemporal resolution for the warm season period (1 May to 31 October) for ground-level ozone and for fine particulate matter (diameter less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5)) are presented. The OA used in this study combines model outputs from the Canadian air quality forecast suite with US and Canadian observations from various air quality surface monitoring networks. The analyses are based on an optimal interpolation (OI) with capabilities for adaptive error statistics for ozone and PM2.5 and an explicit bias correction scheme for the PM2.5 analyses. The estimation of error statistics has been computed using a modified version of the Hollingsworth-Lönnberg (H-L) method. The error statistics are "tuned" using a χ2 (chi-square) diagnostic, a semi-empirical procedure that provides significantly better verification than without tuning. Successful cross-validation experiments were performed with an OA setup using 90% of data observations to build the objective analyses and with the remainder left out as an independent set of data for verification purposes. Furthermore, comparisons with other external sources of information (global models and PM2.5 satellite surface-derived or ground-based measurements) show reasonable agreement. The multi-year analyses obtained provide relatively high precision with an absolute yearly averaged systematic error of less than 0.6 ppbv (parts per billion by volume) and 0.7 μg m-3 (micrograms per cubic meter) for ozone and PM2.5, respectively, and a random error generally less than 9 ppbv for ozone and under 12 μg m-3 for PM2.5. This paper focuses on two applications: (1) presenting long-term averages of OA and analysis increments as a form of summer climatology; and (2) analyzing long-term (decadal) trends and inter-annual fluctuations using OA outputs. The results show that high percentiles of ozone and PM2.5 were both following a general decreasing trend in North America, with the eastern

Recent trends in the timing of first sex and marriage among young women in Ethiopia.

Science.gov (United States)

Reda, A Alex; Lindstrom, David

2014-07-01

Ethiopia has been characterized by high population growth. Recent social and economic developments have the potential to alter reproductive patterns in the country. Some of these developments include sustained economic growth, urbanization, rapid growth in school enrollments, expansion of primary health care, and a rise in contraceptive access and use. In other national contexts, these developments have been associated with a gradual decoupling of the transition into sexual activity and marriage among young women. We investigate recent trends in the transition into first sex and marriage among three cohorts of Ethiopian women. Using data from the 2000, 2005, and 2011 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) we estimate survival curves and discrete-time hazards models to examine recent trends in age at first sex and first marriage among women ages 20-29. Across the three survey years the median age at first sex has remained relatively stable at 17 years, although the median age at marriage has increased from 17 to 18 years between the 2005 and 2011 surveys. Net of the effects of education and place of residence, there is evidence of a slight trend away from premarital first sex to sexual initiation in the context of marriage. However, among the most educated women and women living in urban areas (who are a small minority of women), there is a much greater tendency to initiate sexual activity outside of marriage compared to women with little schooling and women living in rural areas, and once they have begun sexual activity they tend to wait longer before they get married. We also find evidence in the most recent survey that women who have first sexual intercourse before marriage are delaying marriage more than was the case among earlier cohorts.

Secular Trends on Birth Parameters, Growth, and Pubertal Timing in Girls with Turner Syndrome

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Joachim Woelfle

2018-02-01

Full Text Available BackgroundWhether children with chromosomal disorders of growth and puberty are affected by secular trends (STs as observed in the general population remains unanswered, but this question has relevance for expectations of spontaneous development and treatment responses.ObjectivesThe aim of the study was to evaluate STs in birth parameters, growth, and pubertal development in girls with Turner syndrome (TS.Study designRetrospective analysis of KIGS data (Pfizer International Growth Database. We included all TS patients who entered KIGS between 1987 and 2012 and were born from 1975 to 2004, who were prepubertal and growth treatment naïve at first entry (total number: 7,219. Pretreatment height and ages at the start of treatment were compared across 5-year birth year groups, with subgroup analyses stratified by induced or spontaneous puberty start.ResultsWe observed significant STs across the birth year groups for birth weight [+0.18 SD score (SDS, p < 0.001], pretreatment height at mean age 8 years (+0.73 SDS, p < 0.001, height at the start of growth hormone (GH therapy (+0.38 SDS, p < 0.001 and start of puberty (+0.42 SDS, p < 0.001. Spontaneous puberty onset increased from 15 to 30% (p < 0.001. Mean age at the start of GH treatment decreased from 10.8 to 7.4 years (−3.4 years; p < 0.001, and substantial declines were seen in ages at onset of spontaneous and induced puberty (−2.0 years; p < 0.001 and menarche (−2.1 years; p < 0.001.ConclusionEnvironmental changes leading to increased height and earlier and also more common, spontaneous puberty are applicable in TS as in normal girls. In addition, greater awareness for TS may underlie trends to earlier start of GH therapy and induction of puberty at a more physiological age.

Natural and anthropogenic phenomena affecting the historical landslide trend in the Subappennino Dauno (southern Italy)

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Lonigro, Teresa; Santaloia, Francesca; Polemio, Maurizio

2014-05-01

Protection, and also documents belonging to a research project (PS_119; Cotecchia et al. 2010). According to the landslide data collected, the landslide events resulted to be 175 in the study area. The trend analyses show that the landslide occurrence was increased with the time, despite of the rainfall and temperature data are not prone to landsliding. As a matter of fact, the trend of both the monthly rainfall and the rainfall intensity decreases, and the temperature and the wet days show a positive trend during the period of reference. The trend of the short-duration rainfall results generally to decrease. Not existing an evident relationship between climate variability and the increase of landslide occurrence, some other factors should be considered, as, for instance, the poor mechanical soil properties, the role of anthropogenic modifications and the mismanagement of risk-prone areas. In this regards, the preliminary results obtained from the data analyses of the land use and the populations could partly justify the increasing trend of landslide occurrence. More details on previous results of this research activity were recently published (Cotecchia et al., 2010; Polemio and Lonigro, 2011 and 2013; Santaloia et al., 2012). References Cotecchia F., Santaloia F., Lollino P., C. Vitone, G. Mitaritonna (2010) "Deterministic landslide hazard assessment at regional scale". Geoflorida 2010, : 3130-3139. Santaloia F, Cotecchia F, Vitone C (2012) "Applicazione dei metodi avanzati al fronte appenninico apulo-lucano: analisi di I livello. In: Cascini L. (Ed) "Criteri di zonazione della suscettibilità e della pericolosità da frane innescate da eventi estremi (piogge e sisma)"; 130-140, Padova:Composervice srl. Polemio M., Lonigro T. (2011) "Variabilità climatica e ricorrenza delle calamità idrogeologiche in Puglia". In: "Le modificazioni climatiche e i rischi naturali", Polemio M. (Ed.), CNR IRPI, Bari, pp. 13-16. Polemio M., Lonigro T. (2013) "Climate variability and landslide

Trends of phytoplankton characteristics and their communities in pre- and post-liming time in Lake Orta (1984-1998

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Pierisa PANZANI

2001-02-01

Full Text Available This paper is an assessment of the changing properties of Lake Orta phytoplankton in the period 1984-1998, which includes the large-scale liming carried out in the lake in 1989 and 1990. The phytoplankton is analysed first in its general properties (abundance, biovolume, chlorophyll-a concentration, average cell size, diversity by means of time courses of the mentioned variables based on monthly data through the entire period, and by correlations between the same variables. Moreover, through clustering techniques, the evolution of the species composition has been studied, showing the gradual decrease of chlorophytes after the liming and the noticeable increase of the diatom population, both as biovolume and diversity. Although the assemblage of the dominant species still mirrors the presence of some residual toxic compounds into the lake water, in the most recent period the evolution of the algal populations showed a clear trend towards a species assemblage more similar to those observed in the other deep italian subalpine lakes. After the improving of the chemical environment, the main abiotic factor that in the next years could play a major role in modifying the species assemblage is probably the phosphorus supply, whose in-lake concentration is low, despite the high annual load from the basin. A better understanding of the mechanisms underlying the phosphorus dynamics represent the basis to make reliable hypotheses about the future evolution of the phytoplankton assemblage.

Trend analysis of the wave storminess: the wave direction

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Casas Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.; Mösso, C.; Sánchez-Arcilla, A.

2009-09-01

directionality. It is based on 44 year hindcast model data (1958-2001) of the HIPOCAS project, enabling to work with a longer time series compared to the existing measured ones. 41 nodes of this database are used, containing 3 hourly simulated data of significant wave height and wave direction, among other parameters. For storm definition, the Peak Over Threshold (POT) method is used with some additional duration requirements in order to analyse statistically independent events (Mendoza & Jiménez, 2006). Including both wave height and storm duration, the wave storminess is characterised by the energy content (Mendoza & Jiménez, 2004), being in turn log-transformed because of its positive scale. Separately, the wave directionality itself is analysed in terms of different sectors and approaching their probability of occurrence by counting events and using Bayesian inference (Agresti, 2002). Therefore, the original data is transformed into compositional data and, before performing the trend analysis, the isometric logratio (ilr) transformation (Egozcue et al., 2003) is done. In general, the trend analysis methodology consists in two steps: 1) trend detection and 2) trend quantification. For 1) the Mann Kendall test is used in order to identify the nodes with significant trend. For these selected nodes, the trend quantification is done, comparing two methods: 1) a simple linear regression analysis complemented with the bootstrap technique and 2) a Bayesian analysis, assuming normally distributed data with linearly increasing mean. Preliminary results show no significant trend for both annual mean and maximum energy content except for some nodes located to the Northern Catalan coast. Regarding the wave direction (but not only considering stormy conditions) there is a tendency of North direction to decrease whereas South and Southeast direction seems to increase.

Real-time single-molecule co-immunoprecipitation analyses reveal cancer-specific Ras signalling dynamics

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Lee, Hong-Won; Kyung, Taeyoon; Yoo, Janghyun; Kim, Tackhoon; Chung, Chaeuk; Ryu, Ji Young; Lee, Hanki; Park, Kihyun; Lee, Sangkyu; Jones, Walton D.; Lim, Dae-Sik; Hyeon, Changbong; Do Heo, Won; Yoon, Tae-Young

2013-01-01

Co-immunoprecipitation (co-IP) has become a standard technique, but its protein-band output provides only static, qualitative information about protein–protein interactions. Here we demonstrate a real-time single-molecule co-IP technique that generates real-time videos of individual protein–protein interactions as they occur in unpurified cell extracts. By analysing single Ras–Raf interactions with a 50-ms time resolution, we have observed transient intermediates of the protein–protein interaction and determined all the essential kinetic rates. Using this technique, we have quantified the active fraction of native Ras proteins in xenograft tumours, normal tissue and cancer cell lines. We demonstrate that the oncogenic Ras mutations selectively increase the active-Ras fraction by one order of magnitude, without affecting total Ras levels or single-molecule signalling kinetics. Our approach allows us to probe the previously hidden, dynamic aspects of weak protein–protein interactions. It also suggests a path forward towards precision molecular diagnostics at the protein–protein interaction level. PMID:23422673

Twenty-year trends in benzodiazepine dispensing in the Australian population.

Science.gov (United States)

Islam, M M; Conigrave, K M; Day, C A; Nguyen, Y; Haber, P S

2014-01-01

Considerable concern has been expressed about overprescribing of benzodiazepines and related harms. Past analyses have relied on World Health Organization-defined daily doses (DDD) which are sometimes out of keeping with clinical usage. This study examines 20-year (1992-2011) trends of benzodiazepine dispensing in Australia using both DDD and Ashton equivalent dose. Data from the Drug Utilisation Sub-Committee and the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) website were analysed. Trends in number of prescriptions, DDD/1000 people/day and DDD/prescription were examined over time, and between states/territories. In the 20-year period, 174 080 904 scripts were recorded, with temazepam the most dispensed benzodiazepine (35% of scripts), followed by diazepam (23%). Overall recorded utilisation fell from 27.7 DDD/1000 people/day in 1992 to 20.8 in 2011 (24.9% decrease). There were striking changes in use of individual benzodiazepines over time, with reductions in oxazepam and flunitrazepam and dramatic increases in alprazolam. Since 1998, there has been a steady increase, albeit modest, in per script DDD. The DDD/1000 people/day for items dispensed through PBS/Repatriaton-PBS was highest in Tasmania and lowest in Northern Territory. Despite a modest overall decline in the amount of benzodiazepine dispensed, the level of use is still likely to reflect relative over-prescribing given the paucity of accepted indications for long-term use. Since 1998, there was a polynomial increase in quantity dispensed per script. The WHO-defined DDD for clonazepam seems inappropriate and could impede monitoring of its abuse. Other problems include lack of national data for medications not subsidised on PBS/Repatriation PBS. A broad policy approach is required, not one which targets only one particular benzodiazepine. © 2013 The Authors; Internal Medicine Journal © 2013 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices

OpenAIRE

Gouel , Christophe; LEGRAND , Nicolas

2017-01-01

We present a method to estimate jointly the parameters of a standard commodity storage model and the parameters characterizing the trend in commodity prices. This procedure allows the influence of a possible trend to be removed without restricting the model specification, and allows model and trend selection based on statistical criteria. The trend is modeled deterministically using linear or cubic spline functions of time. The results show that storage models with trend are always preferred ...

Everyday, everywhere: alcohol marketing and social media--current trends.

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Nicholls, James

2012-01-01

To provide a snapshot content analysis of social media marketing among leading alcohol brands in the UK, and to outline the implications for both regulatory policies and further research. Using screengrab technology, the complete Facebook walls and Twitter timelines for 12 leading UK alcohol brands in November 2011 were captured and archived. A total of 701 brand-authored posts were identified and categorized using a thematic coding frame. Key strategic trends were identified and analysed in the light of contextual research into recent developments in marketing practice within the alcohol industry. A number of dominating trends were identified. These included the use of real-world tie-ins, interactive games, competitions and time-specific suggestions to drink. These methods reflect a strategy of branded conversation-stimulus which is favoured by social media marketing agencies. A number of distinct marketing methods are deployed by alcohol brands when using social media. These may undermine policies which seek to change social norms around drinking, especially the normalization of daily consumption. Social media marketing also raises questions regarding the efficacy of reactive regulatory frameworks. Further research into both the nature and impact of alcohol marketing on social media is needed.

Trends of some wintering waterbirds in Lazio (1993-2006

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Massimo Brunelli

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Since the 90s, censuses of wintering waterfowl have been carried out in the main wetlands of Lazio. We analysed the trends of 31 species in the 1993-2006 period (base year 1993 by means of TRIM (Trends and Indices Monitoring data software (Model 3. Among the species regularly recorded in the region, Ardea alba, Ardea cinerea, Bubulcus ibis and Anser anser showed a strong increase; Podiceps cristatus, Nycticorax nycticorax, Egretta garzetta, Phoenicopterus ruber, Anas penelope, Anas strepera, Anas crecca, Anas platyrhynchos, Anas clypeata, Netta rufina, Aythya ferina, Aythya nyroca, Circus aeruginosus, Fulica atra, Pluvialis apricaria and Vanellus vanellus showed a moderate increase; Gavia arctica, Tachybaptus ruficollis, Podiceps nigricollis, Phalacrocorax carbo, Aythya fuligula and Numenius arquata resulted “stable”; Botaurus stellaris, Tadorna tadorna, Anas acuta, Pluvialis squatarola and Calidris alpina showed an uncertain trend. The trends for most species are similar to those recorded at a national level.

Trends in Pap test practices and results: An 11-year review of the annual ACHA Pap Test and STI Survey.

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Eastman-Mueller, Heather P; Oswalt, Sara B

2017-10-01

To conduct a trend analysis of Pap test practices, Pap test results and related women's services and guidelines of college health centers. College health centers who participated in the annual ACHA Pap Test and STI (sexually transmitted infection) Survey years 2004-2014 (n ranged from 127 to 181 depending on year). Descriptive analyses are presented with ANOVAs (Analysis of Variance) and chi-square tests calculated to examine trends over time. The number of Pap tests significantly decreased over time; however, the percentage of normal and HSIL (high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion) results did not vary. Availability of conventional cytology slides and cryotherapy were significantly associated with year. Over time, college health centers' guidelines related to initiation of Pap testing evolved to consistently conform to national recommendations for cervical screening. The results indicate most college health centers are following the current national guidelines regarding Pap testing for young adult women.

The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model

OpenAIRE

Drew Creal; Siem Jan Koopman; Eric Zivot

2008-01-01

In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is based on a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition model that accounts for time variation in macroeconomic volatility, known as the great moderation. In particular, we consider an unobserved components ...

Seasonality and trend in blood lead levels of New York State children

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Talbot Thomas O

2004-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Environmental exposure to lead remains a significant health problem for children. The costs of lead exposure in children are estimated to be considerably more than other childhood diseases of environmental origin. While long-term trends in blood lead levels (BLLs among children are declining, seasonal variation persists. Cross-sectional studies have found a peak in summer months. Part of this variation may be due to increased exposure to lead paint on window sills and through increased contact with soils containing lead during the summer. The current study represents the largest published population-based study on seasonality and trends in the BLLs of children to date. In addition, the results offer a comparison of recent data on seasonality of BLLs in New York State children, to studies conducted over the past three decades. Methods 262,687 New York State children born between 1994 and 1997 were screened for blood lead within 2 weeks of their first or second birthdays. Time series analyses of blood lead data from these children were conducted to study the seasonality and trends of BLLs. Results Children's blood lead values showed a distinct seasonal cycle on top of a long-term decreasing trend. The geometric mean BLL declined by about 24% for children born between 1994 and 1997. The prevalence of elevated BLLs in two-year-olds was almost twice that in one-year-olds over the time period. Nearly twice as many children had elevated BLLs in the late summer compared to late winter/early spring. In this and previous cross-sectional studies, the amount of seasonality as a proportion of the mean ranged between 15% and 30%. Conclusion Pediatricians should be aware of the seasonality of BLLs. For example, if a two-year-old receives a borderline result during the winter, it is possible that the levels would have been higher if he had been tested during the summer. However, physicians should continue to screen children at their normally

Socioeconomic status and trends in alcohol drinking in the Danish MONICA population, 1982-92

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Osler, M; Jørgensen, Torben; Grønbaek, M

2001-01-01

AIMS: To examine trends in alcohol drinking in different educational groups. METHODS: Data from three cross-sectional WHO MONICA surveys conducted in 1982-84, 1987, and 1991-92 were analysed to estimate trends in abstention, moderate, heavy, and sporadic heavy alcohol use in relation to level of ...

Daylight savings time and myocardial infarction.

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Sandhu, Amneet; Seth, Milan; Gurm, Hitinder S

2014-01-01

Prior research has shown a transient increase in the incidence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) after daylight savings time (DST) in the spring as well as a decrease in AMI after returning to standard time in the fall. These findings have not been verified in a broader population and if extant, may have significant public health and policy implications. We assessed changes in admissions for AMI undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in the Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan Cardiovascular Consortium (BMC2) database for the weeks following the four spring and three fall DST changes between March 2010 and September 2013. A negative binomial regression model was used to adjust for trend and seasonal variation. There was no difference in the total weekly number of PCIs performed for AMI for either the fall or spring time changes in the time period analysed. After adjustment for trend and seasonal effects, the Monday following spring time changes was associated with a 24% increase in daily AMI counts (p=0.011), and the Tuesday following fall changes was conversely associated with a 21% reduction (p=0.044). No other weekdays in the weeks following DST changes demonstrated significant associations. In the week following the seasonal time change, DST impacts the timing of presentations for AMI but does not influence the overall incidence of this disease.

Prestudy - Development of trend analysis of component failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poern, K.

1995-04-01

The Bayesian trend analysis model that has been used for the computation of initiating event intensities (I-book) is based on the number of events that have occurred during consecutive time intervals. The model itself is a Poisson process with time-dependent intensity. For the analysis of aging it is often more relevant to use times between failures for a given component as input, where by 'time' is meant a quantity that best characterizes the age of the component (calendar time, operating time, number of activations etc). Therefore, it has been considered necessary to extend the model and the computer code to allow trend analysis of times between events, and also of several sequences of times between events. This report describes this model extension as well as an application on an introductory ageing analysis of centrifugal pumps defined in Table 5 of the T-book. The application in turn directs the attention to the need for further development of both the trend model and the data base. Figs

Population and age-group trends in weekend sun protection and sunburn over two decades of the SunSmart programme in Melbourne, Australia.

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Makin, J K; Warne, C D; Dobbinson, S J; Wakefield, M A; Hill, D J

2013-01-01

In response to the high skin cancer burden in Australia, the multicomponent, community-wide SunSmart programme has worked since 1988 to reduce excessive sun exposure.  To examine trends in key sun-protection behaviours and sunburn for the Melbourne population from 1987 to 2007, and examine for the first time patterns of change among age groups.   Representative cross-sectional weekly telephone surveys of weekend sun protection and sunburn were conducted over 11 of the summers in the period 1987-88 to 2006-07. Trends were analysed for the population and for age groups, adjusting for ambient temperature and ultraviolet radiation, which are environmental determinants of sun-related behaviour and sunburn.   The general pattern of trends suggests two distinct periods, one with rapid improvement in behaviours (more sunscreen use, less unprotected body exposure and less sunburn) from 1987-88 to 1994-95, and the second from 1997-98 to 2006-07 with fewer changes in behaviours noted. The age-group analyses showed a similar pattern of change over time across groups, with a few notable exceptions.  The similarity of the pattern of trends among age groups suggests that external influences including the SunSmart programme's activity had a relatively similar impact across the population. Sun-related behaviours continue to be amenable to change. More recent relative stability with some declines in sun protection suggests further intensive campaigns and other strategies may be needed to maintain previous successes and to achieve more universal use of sun protection. © 2012 The Authors. BJD © 2012 British Association of Dermatologists.

Trends in leisure time and occupational physical activity in the Madrid region, 1995-2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Meseguer, Carmen M; Galán, Iñaki; Herruzo, Rafael; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando