WorldWideScience

Sample records for time trend analyses

  1. Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mudelsee

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental problem in paleoclimatology is to take fully into account the various error sources when examining proxy records with quantitative methods of statistical time series analysis. Records from dated climate archives such as speleothems add extra uncertainty from the age determination to the other sources that consist in measurement and proxy errors. This paper examines three stalagmite time series of oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O from two caves in western Germany, the series AH-1 from the Atta Cave and the series Bu1 and Bu4 from the Bunker Cave. These records carry regional information about past changes in winter precipitation and temperature. U/Th and radiocarbon dating reveals that they cover the later part of the Holocene, the past 8.6 thousand years (ka. We analyse centennial- to millennial-scale climate trends by means of nonparametric Gasser–Müller kernel regression. Error bands around fitted trend curves are determined by combining (1 block bootstrap resampling to preserve noise properties (shape, autocorrelation of the δ18O residuals and (2 timescale simulations (models StalAge and iscam. The timescale error influences on centennial- to millennial-scale trend estimation are not excessively large. We find a "mid-Holocene climate double-swing", from warm to cold to warm winter conditions (6.5 ka to 6.0 ka to 5.1 ka, with warm–cold amplitudes of around 0.5‰ δ18O; this finding is documented by all three records with high confidence. We also quantify the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, the Little Ice Age (LIA and the current warmth. Our analyses cannot unequivocally support the conclusion that current regional winter climate is warmer than that during the MWP.

  2. Empirical mode decomposition and k-nearest embedding vectors for timely analyses of antibiotic resistance trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teodoro, Douglas; Lovis, Christian

    2013-01-01

    Antibiotic resistance is a major worldwide public health concern. In clinical settings, timely antibiotic resistance information is key for care providers as it allows appropriate targeted treatment or improved empirical treatment when the specific results of the patient are not yet available. To improve antibiotic resistance trend analysis algorithms by building a novel, fully data-driven forecasting method from the combination of trend extraction and machine learning models for enhanced biosurveillance systems. We investigate a robust model for extraction and forecasting of antibiotic resistance trends using a decade of microbiology data. Our method consists of breaking down the resistance time series into independent oscillatory components via the empirical mode decomposition technique. The resulting waveforms describing intrinsic resistance trends serve as the input for the forecasting algorithm. The algorithm applies the delay coordinate embedding theorem together with the k-nearest neighbor framework to project mappings from past events into the future dimension and estimate the resistance levels. The algorithms that decompose the resistance time series and filter out high frequency components showed statistically significant performance improvements in comparison with a benchmark random walk model. We present further qualitative use-cases of antibiotic resistance trend extraction, where empirical mode decomposition was applied to highlight the specificities of the resistance trends. The decomposition of the raw signal was found not only to yield valuable insight into the resistance evolution, but also to produce novel models of resistance forecasters with boosted prediction performance, which could be utilized as a complementary method in the analysis of antibiotic resistance trends.

  3. Trend analyses with river sediment rating curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warrick, Jonathan A.

    2015-01-01

    Sediment rating curves, which are fitted relationships between river discharge (Q) and suspended-sediment concentration (C), are commonly used to assess patterns and trends in river water quality. In many of these studies it is assumed that rating curves have a power-law form (i.e., C = aQb, where a and b are fitted parameters). Two fundamental questions about the utility of these techniques are assessed in this paper: (i) How well to the parameters, a and b, characterize trends in the data? (ii) Are trends in rating curves diagnostic of changes to river water or sediment discharge? As noted in previous research, the offset parameter, a, is not an independent variable for most rivers, but rather strongly dependent on b and Q. Here it is shown that a is a poor metric for trends in the vertical offset of a rating curve, and a new parameter, â, as determined by the discharge-normalized power function [C = â (Q/QGM)b], where QGM is the geometric mean of the Q values sampled, provides a better characterization of trends. However, these techniques must be applied carefully, because curvature in the relationship between log(Q) and log(C), which exists for many rivers, can produce false trends in â and b. Also, it is shown that trends in â and b are not uniquely diagnostic of river water or sediment supply conditions. For example, an increase in â can be caused by an increase in sediment supply, a decrease in water supply, or a combination of these conditions. Large changes in water and sediment supplies can occur without any change in the parameters, â and b. Thus, trend analyses using sediment rating curves must include additional assessments of the time-dependent rates and trends of river water, sediment concentrations, and sediment discharge.

  4. Set-up errors analyses in IMRT treatments for nasopharyngeal carcinoma to evaluate time trends, PTV and PRV margins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mongioj, Valeria (Dept. of Medical Physics, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale Tumori, Milan (Italy)), e-mail: valeria.mongioj@istitutotumori.mi.it; Orlandi, Ester (Dept. of Radiotherapy, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale Tumori, Milan (Italy)); Palazzi, Mauro (Dept. of Radiotherapy, A.O. Niguarda Ca' Granda, Milan (Italy)) (and others)

    2011-01-15

    Introduction. The aims of this study were to analyze the systematic and random interfractional set-up errors during Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) in 20 consecutive nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients by means of Electronic Portal Images Device (EPID), to define appropriate Planning Target Volume (PTV) and Planning Risk Volume (PRV) margins, as well as to investigate set-up displacement trend as a function of time during fractionated RT course. Material and methods. Before EPID clinical implementation, an anthropomorphic phantom was shifted intentionally 5 mm to all directions and the EPIs were compared with the digitally reconstructed radiographs (DRRs) to test the system's capability to recognize displacements observed in clinical studies. Then, 578 clinical images were analyzed with a mean of 29 images for each patient. Results. Phantom data showed that the system was able to correct shifts with an accuracy of 1 mm. As regards clinical data, the estimated population systematic errors were 1.3 mm for left-right (L-R), 1 mm for superior-inferior (S-I) and 1.1 mm for anterior-posterior (A-P) directions, respectively. Population random errors were 1.3 mm, 1.5 mm and 1.3 mm for L-R, S-I and A-P directions, respectively. PTV margin was at least 3.4, 3 and 3.2 mm for L-R, S-I and A-P direction, respectively. PRV margins for brainstem and spinal cord were 2.3, 2 and 2.1 mm and 3.8, 3.5 and 3.2 mm for L-R, A-P and S-I directions, respectively. Set-up error displacements showed no significant changes as the therapy progressed (p>0.05), although displacements >3 mm were found more frequently when severe weight loss or tumor nodal shrinkage occurred. Discussion. These results enable us to choose margins that guarantee with sufficient accuracy the coverage of PTVs and organs at risk sparing. Collected data confirmed the need for a strict check of patient position reproducibility in case of anatomical changes

  5. Can linear trend analyses of NDVI time series data truly detect land degradation? Simulations may provide the answer

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wessels, Konrad J

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available of sufficient field data. The authors suggest that such an approach is not sufficiently rigorous. Therefore, they demonstrate an approach which simulates land degradation so that the intensity, rate and timing of the reduction in NDVI can be controlled, in order...

  6. Development of time-trend model for analysing and predicting case pattern of dog bite injury induced rabies-like-illness in Liberia, 2014-2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jomah, N D; Ojo, J F; Odigie, E A; Olugasa, B O

    2014-12-01

    The post-civil war records of dog bite injuries (DBI) and rabies-like-illness (RLI) among humans in Liberia is a vital epidemiological resource for developing a predictive model to guide the allocation of resources towards human rabies control. Whereas DBI and RLI are high, they are largely under-reported. The objective of this study was to develop a time model of the case-pattern and apply it to derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of DBI-RLI cases. A retrospective 6 years data of DBI distribution among humans countrywide were converted to quarterly series using a transformation technique of Minimizing Squared First Difference statistic. The generated dataset was used to train a time-trend model of the DBI-RLI syndrome in Liberia. An additive detenninistic time-trend model was selected due to its performance compared to multiplication model of trend and seasonal movement. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict DBI cases for a prospective 4 years period, covering 2014-2017. The two-stage predictive model of DBI case-pattern between 2014 and 2017 was characterised by a uniform upward trend within Liberia's coastal and hinterland Counties over the forecast period. This paper describes a translational application of the time-trend distribution pattern of DBI epidemics, 2008-2013 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. A computationally feasible two-stage time-trend permutation approach is proposed to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on DBI-RLI in Liberia.

  7. Analysing Stable Time Series

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Adler, Robert

    1997-01-01

    We describe how to take a stable, ARMA, time series through the various stages of model identification, parameter estimation, and diagnostic checking, and accompany the discussion with a goodly number...

  8. Trend Analyses of Nitrate in Danish Groundwater

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, B.; Thorling, L.; Dalgaard, Tommy

    2012-01-01

    This presentation assesses the long-term development in the oxic groundwater nitrate concentration and nitrogen (N) loss due to intensive farming in Denmark. Firstly, up to 20-year time-series from the national groundwater monitoring network enable a statistically systematic analysis of distribut......This presentation assesses the long-term development in the oxic groundwater nitrate concentration and nitrogen (N) loss due to intensive farming in Denmark. Firstly, up to 20-year time-series from the national groundwater monitoring network enable a statistically systematic analysis...... of distribution, trends and trend reversals in the groundwater nitrate concentration. Secondly, knowledge about the N surplus in Danish agriculture since 1950 is used as an indicator of the potential loss of N. Thirdly, groundwater recharge CFC (Chlorofluorocarbon) age determination allows linking of the first...... two dataset. The development in the nitrate concentration of oxic groundwater clearly mirrors the development in the national agricultural N surplus, and a corresponding trend reversal is found in groundwater. Regulation and technical improvements in the intensive farming in Denmark have succeeded...

  9. Applications of MIDAS regression in analysing trends in water quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penev, Spiridon; Leonte, Daniela; Lazarov, Zdravetz; Mann, Rob A.

    2014-04-01

    We discuss novel statistical methods in analysing trends in water quality. Such analysis uses complex data sets of different classes of variables, including water quality, hydrological and meteorological. We analyse the effect of rainfall and flow on trends in water quality utilising a flexible model called Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS). This model arises because of the mixed frequency in the data collection. Typically, water quality variables are sampled fortnightly, whereas the rain data is sampled daily. The advantage of using MIDAS regression is in the flexible and parsimonious modelling of the influence of the rain and flow on trends in water quality variables. We discuss the model and its implementation on a data set from the Shoalhaven Supply System and Catchments in the state of New South Wales, Australia. Information criteria indicate that MIDAS modelling improves upon simplistic approaches that do not utilise the mixed data sampling nature of the data.

  10. Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Paap (Richard)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractMany macroeconomic time series are characterised by long periods of positive growth, expansion periods, and short periods of negative growth, recessions. A popular model to describe this phenomenon is the Markov trend, which is a stochastic segmented trend where the slope depends on the

  11. ALBEDO PATTERN RECOGNITION AND TIME-SERIES ANALYSES IN MALAYSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Salleh

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Pattern recognition and time-series analyses will enable one to evaluate and generate predictions of specific phenomena. The albedo pattern and time-series analyses are very much useful especially in relation to climate condition monitoring. This study is conducted to seek for Malaysia albedo pattern changes. The pattern recognition and changes will be useful for variety of environmental and climate monitoring researches such as carbon budgeting and aerosol mapping. The 10 years (2000–2009 MODIS satellite images were used for the analyses and interpretation. These images were being processed using ERDAS Imagine remote sensing software, ArcGIS 9.3, the 6S code for atmospherical calibration and several MODIS tools (MRT, HDF2GIS, Albedo tools. There are several methods for time-series analyses were explored, this paper demonstrates trends and seasonal time-series analyses using converted HDF format MODIS MCD43A3 albedo land product. The results revealed significance changes of albedo percentages over the past 10 years and the pattern with regards to Malaysia's nebulosity index (NI and aerosol optical depth (AOD. There is noticeable trend can be identified with regards to its maximum and minimum value of the albedo. The rise and fall of the line graph show a similar trend with regards to its daily observation. The different can be identified in term of the value or percentage of rises and falls of albedo. Thus, it can be concludes that the temporal behavior of land surface albedo in Malaysia have a uniform behaviours and effects with regards to the local monsoons. However, although the average albedo shows linear trend with nebulosity index, the pattern changes of albedo with respects to the nebulosity index indicates that there are external factors that implicates the albedo values, as the sky conditions and its diffusion plotted does not have uniform trend over the years, especially when the trend of 5 years interval is examined, 2000 shows high

  12. A Simple, Reliable Precision Time Analyser

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joshi, B. V.; Nargundkar, V. R.; Subbarao, K.; Kamath, M. S.; Eligar, S. K. [Atomic Energy Establishment Trombay, Bombay (India)

    1966-06-15

    A 30-channel time analyser is described. The time analyser was designed and built for pulsed neutron research but can be applied to other uses. Most of the logic is performed by means of ferrite memory core and transistor switching circuits. This leads to great versatility, low power consumption, extreme reliability and low cost. The analyser described provides channel Widths from 10 {mu}s to 10 ms; arbitrarily wider channels are easily obtainable. It can handle counting rates up to 2000 counts/min in each channel with less than 1% dead time loss. There is a provision for an initial delay equal to 100 channel widths. An input pulse de-randomizer unit using tunnel diodes ensures exactly equal channel widths. A brief description of the principles involved in core switching circuitry is given. The core-transistor transfer loop is compared with the usual core-diode loops and is shown to be more versatile and better adapted to the making of a time analyser. The circuits derived from the basic loop are described. These include the scale of ten, the frequency dividers and the delay generator. The current drivers developed for driving the cores are described. The crystal-controlled clock which controls the width of the time channels and synchronizes the operation of the various circuits is described. The detector pulse derandomizer unit using tunnel diodes is described. The scheme of the time analyser is then described showing how the various circuits can be integrated together to form a versatile time analyser. (author)

  13. Time Trends in Antipsychotic Drug Use in Patients with Dementia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Ane; Jensen-Dahm, Christina; Gasse, Christiane

    2015-01-01

    : To investigate time trends in use of antipsychotics and other psychotropic drugs in dementia care. METHODS: The study included longitudinal data on all Danish residents ≥65 years. The study population was defined on January 1 of each year from 2000-2012. Data included prescriptions, discharge diagnoses......, and somatic and psychiatric comorbidities. Multivariate time trend analyses of psychotropic drug use in patients with dementia within 4-year age bands were performed. RESULTS: Overall, among patients with dementia the prevalence of antipsychotic drug use decreased from 31.3% in 2000 to 20.4% in 2012...

  14. New insights into survival trend analyses in cancer population-based studies: the SUDCAN methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uhry, Zoé; Bossard, Nadine; Remontet, Laurent; Iwaz, Jean; Roche, Laurent

    2017-01-01

    The main objective of the SUDCAN study was to compare, for 15 cancer sites, the trends in net survival and excess mortality rates from cancer 5 years after diagnosis between six European Latin countries (Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland). The data were extracted from the EUROCARE-5 database. The study period ranged from 6 (Portugal, 2000-2005) to 18 years (Switzerland, 1989-2007). Trend analyses were carried out separately for each country and cancer site; the number of cases ranged from 1500 to 104 000 cases. We developed an original flexible excess rate modelling strategy that accounts for the continuous effects of age, year of diagnosis, time since diagnosis and their interactions. Nineteen models were constructed; they differed in the modelling of the effect of the year of diagnosis in terms of linearity, proportionality and interaction with age. The final model was chosen according to the Akaike Information Criterion. The fit was assessed graphically by comparing model estimates versus nonparametric (Pohar-Perme) net survival estimates. Out of the 90 analyses carried out, the effect of the year of diagnosis on the excess mortality rate depended on age in 61 and was nonproportional in 64; it was nonlinear in 27 out of the 75 analyses where this effect was considered. The model fit was overall satisfactory. We analysed successfully 15 cancer sites in six countries. The refined methodology proved necessary for detailed trend analyses. It is hoped that three-dimensional parametric modelling will be used more widely in net survival trend studies as it has major advantages over stratified analyses.

  15. Time-trends in gastroprotection with NSAIDs

    OpenAIRE

    Valkhoff , Vera E.; Van Soest , Eva Marianne; Sturkenboom , Miriam C; Kuipers , Ernst J

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background: Preventive strategies are advocated in patients at risk of upper gastrointestinal (UGI) complications associated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Aim: We examined time trends in preventive strategies. Methods: In a study population comprising of 50,126 NSAID users ? 50 yrs from the Integrated Primary Care Information database, we considered two preventive strategies: co-prescription of gastroprotective agents and prescription of a cyc...

  16. Analysing Memoir Topic Trends in the Social and Political Sciences ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    While the issue of plagiarism was not specifically addressed by this study, it is possible that the N-map trends portrayed by this research emerge in part because some students have used past memoirs as templates, possibly including indirect or direct copying. For this reason, the research concluded that while the majority ...

  17. Time-trend analyses of bleeding and mortality after primary percutaneous coronary intervention during out of working hours versus in-working hours: an observational study of 11 466 patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, M Bilal; Khamis, Ramzi; Ilsley, Charles; Mikhail, Ghada; Crake, Tom; Firoozi, Sam; Kalra, Sundeep; Knight, Charles; Archbold, Andrew; Lim, Pitt; Mathur, Anthony; Meier, Pascal; Rakhit, Roby D; Redwood, Simon; Whitbread, Mark; Bromage, Dan; Rathod, Krishna; Jones, Daniel A; Wragg, Andrew; Dalby, Miles; MacCarthy, Phil; Malik, Iqbal S

    2015-06-01

    Primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) is the treatment of choice for ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. Resources are limited during out of working hours (OWH). Whether PPCI outside working hours is associated with worse outcomes and whether outcomes have improved over time are unknown. We analyzed 11 466 patients undergoing PPCI between 2004 and 2011 at all 8 tertiary cardiac centers in London, United Kingdom. We defined working hours as 9 am to 5 pm (Monday to Friday). We analyzed in-hospital bleeding and all-cause mortality ≤3 years, comparing OWH versus in-working hours. A total of 7494 patients (65.3%) were treated during OWH. Multivariable analyses demonstrated that PPCI during OWH was not a predictor for bleeding (odds ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97-2.24; P=0.071) or 3-year mortality (hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.94-1.32; P=0.20). This was confirmed in propensity-matched analyses. Time-stratified analyses demonstrated that PPCI during OWH was a predictor for bleeding (odds ratio, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.06-3.80; P=0.034) and 3-year mortality during 2005 to 2008 (hazard ratio, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.00-1.50; P=0.050), but this association was lost during 2009 to 2011. During 2005 to 2008, transradial access was predominantly used during in-working hours and PPCI during OWH was predictive of reduced transradial access use (odds ratio, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.71-0.98; P=0.033), but this association was lost during 2009 to 2011. In this study of unselected patients with ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction, PPCI during OWH versus in-working hours had comparable bleeding and mortality. Time-stratified analyses demonstrated a reduction in adjusted bleeding and mortality during OWH over time. This may reflect the improved service provision, but the increased adoption of transradial access during OWH may also be contributory. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  18. Uranium price trends for use in strategy analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James, R.A.

    1979-09-01

    Long-term price forecasts for mined uranium are quoted. These will be used in Ontario Hydro's nuclear fuel cycle strategy analyses. They are, of necessity, speculative. The accuracy of the forecasts is considered adequate for long-term strategy analyses, but not for other purposes. (auth)

  19. Time trends in human fecundability in Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H; Rylander, Lars; Carstensen, Lisbeth

    2008-01-01

    ,000 primiparous women 20 years of age and older in the nationwide Swedish Medical Birth Registry from 1983 through 2002. This age restriction led to an exclusion of 10% of primiparous pregnancies. Subfertility (TTP > or =1 year) was analyzed as a function of maternal age, calendar time at initiation of attempt...... increased with age, except that for women in their late 1930s, an apparent decrease was observed, particularly among the early cohorts. CONCLUSION: We found decreasing subfertility over time. We speculate that these patterns might be related to a Sweden-specific decrease over time in sexually transmitted...... diseases, to changes in sexual behavior induced by socioeconomic conditions, or to broader biologic or educational trends....

  20. Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

    2013-01-01

    Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

  1. Analyses of GIMMS NDVI Time Series in Kogi State, Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palka, Jessica; Wessollek, Christine; Karrasch, Pierre

    2017-10-01

    The value of remote sensing data is particularly evident where an areal monitoring is needed to provide information on the earth's surface development. The use of temporal high resolution time series data allows for detecting short-term changes. In Kogi State in Nigeria different vegetation types can be found. As the major population in this region is living in rural communities with crop farming the existing vegetation is slowly being altered. The expansion of agricultural land causes loss of natural vegetation, especially in the regions close to the rivers which are suitable for crop production. With regard to these facts, two questions can be dealt with covering different aspects of the development of vegetation in the Kogi state, the determination and evaluation of the general development of the vegetation in the study area (trend estimation) and analyses on a short-term behavior of vegetation conditions, which can provide information about seasonal effects in vegetation development. For this purpose, the GIMMS-NDVI data set, provided by the NOAA, provides information on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in a geometric resolution of approx. 8 km. The temporal resolution of 15 days allows the already described analyses. For the presented analysis data for the period 1981-2012 (31 years) were used. The implemented workflow mainly applies methods of time series analysis. The results show that in addition to the classical seasonal development, artefacts of different vegetation periods (several NDVI maxima) can be found in the data. The trend component of the time series shows a consistently positive development in the entire study area considering the full investigation period of 31 years. However, the results also show that this development has not been continuous and a simple linear modeling of the NDVI increase is only possible to a limited extent. For this reason, the trend modeling was extended by procedures for detecting structural breaks in

  2. Counterfeits and imitations of Viagra and Cialis tablets: trends and risks to public health - A survey of the analyses carried out at the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment in the time period 2000 - 2004

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blok-Tip L; Vogelpoel H; Vredenbregt MJ; Barends DM; Kaste D de; KCF

    2005-01-01

    During the last years de Dutch market has been flooded with falsifications of Viagra. and Cialis.. Both products are used for the treatment of erectile dysfunction. This report is about the trend of these falsifications during the years 2000 - 2004. The risks of these products to public health are

  3. Domestic Violence against People with Disabilities: Prevalence and Trend Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jin-Ding; Lin, Lan-Ping; Lin, Pei-Ying; Wu, Jia-Lin; Li, Chien-De; Kuo, Fang-Yu

    2010-01-01

    The present study analyzed national data from "Domestic Violence Report System" derived primarily from the Council of Domestic Violence and Sexual Assaults Prevention, Ministry of the Interior, Taiwan, to describe the reported prevalence of domestic violence in people with disabilities and to examine the time-effect on the prevalence…

  4. Diagnoses of Autism Spectrum Disorders in Germany: Time Trends in Administrative Prevalence and Diagnostic Stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann, Christian J.; Gerste, Bettina; Hoffmann, Falk

    2018-01-01

    For Germany, no data on trends in autism spectrum disorder diagnoses are available. The primary aim of this study was to establish the time trends in the administrative prevalence of autism spectrum disorder diagnoses. The second aim was to assess the stability of autism spectrum disorder diagnoses over time. We analysed administrative outpatient…

  5. Trend analyses of the emergency diesel generator problem events in Japanese and U.S. nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimada, Yoshio

    2011-01-01

    Up to 2009, the author and a colleague conducted trend analyses of problem events related to main generators, emergency diesel generators, breakers, motors and transformers which are more likely to cause problems than other electric components in nuclear power plants. Among the electric components with high frequency of defect occurrence, i.e., emergency diesel generators, several years have passed since the last analyses. These are very important components needed to stop a nuclear reactor safely and to cool it down during external power supply loses. Then trend analyses were conducted for the second time. The trend analyses were performed on 80 problem events with emergency diesel generators which had occurred in U.S. nuclear power plants in the five years from 2005 through 2009 among events reported in the Licensee Event Reports (LERs: event reports submitted to NRC by U.S. nuclear power plants) which have been registered in the nuclear information database of the Institute of Nuclear Safety System, Inc. (INSS) , as well as 40 events registered in the Nuclear Information Archives (NUCIA), which occurred in Japanese nuclear power plants in the same time period. It was learned from the trend analyses of the problem events with emergency diesel generators that frequency of defect occurrence are high in both Japanese and US plants during plant operations and functional tests (that is, defects can be discovered effectively in advance), so that implementation of periodical functional tests under plant operation is an important task for the future. (author)

  6. Time trends of physical activity and television viewing time in Brazil: 2006-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mielke, Grégore I; Hallal, Pedro C; Malta, Deborah C; Lee, I-Min

    2014-08-15

    Despite recent advances in surveillance of physical activity, data on time trends of physical activity in low and middle-income countries are lacking. This study describes time trends in physical activity and television viewing between 2006 and 2012 among Brazilian adults. Data from 371,271 adult participants (18 + years) in the Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Illnesses using Telephone Survey (VIGITEL) were analysed. Time trends in leisure-time physical activity (≥ 5 days/wk; ≥ 30 min/day), transportation physical activity (using bicycle or walking for ≥ 30 minutes per day as a means of transportation to/from work) and proportion of participants spending more than three hours per day watching television were analysed. Annual changes according to sex, age and years of schooling were calculated. There was an increase in leisure-time physical activity from 12.8% in 2006 to 14.9% in 2012 (annual increase of 1.9%; p physical activity decreased 12.9% per year (p physical activity appears to be increasing, while television viewing time appears to be decreasing in recent years. However, transportation physical activity has been declining. These data are important for informing national public health policies.

  7. Trend time-series modeling and forecasting with neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Min; Zhang, G Peter

    2008-05-01

    Despite its great importance, there has been no general consensus on how to model the trends in time-series data. Compared to traditional approaches, neural networks (NNs) have shown some promise in time-series forecasting. This paper investigates how to best model trend time series using NNs. Four different strategies (raw data, raw data with time index, detrending, and differencing) are used to model various trend patterns (linear, nonlinear, deterministic, stochastic, and breaking trend). We find that with NNs differencing often gives meritorious results regardless of the underlying data generating processes (DGPs). This finding is also confirmed by the real gross national product (GNP) series.

  8. Spatial analyses of mono, di and trinucleotide trends in plant genes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Porceddu

    Full Text Available Genomic DNA sequences display compositional heterogeneity on many scales. In this paper we analyzed tendencies and anomalies in the occurence of mono, di and trinucleotides in structural regions of plant genes. Representation of these trends as a function of position along genic sequences highlighted compositional features peculiar of either monocots or eudicots that were remarkably uniform within these two evolutionary clades. The most evident of these features appeared in the form of gradient of base content along the direction of transcription. The robustness of such a representation was validated in sequences sub-datasets generated considering structural and compositional features such as total length of cds, overall GC content and genic orientation in the genome. Piecewise regression analyses indicated that the gradients could be conveniently approximated to a two segmented model where a first region featuring a steep slope is followed by a second segment fitting a milder variation. In general, monocots species showed steeper segments than eudicots. The guanine gradient was the most distinctive feature between the two evolutionary clades, being moderately increasing in eudicots and firmly decreasing in monocots. Single gene investigation revealed that a high proportion of genes show compositional trends compatible with a segmented model suggesting that these features are essential attributes of gene organization. Dinucleotide and trinucleotide biases were referred to expectation based on a random union of the component elements. The average bias at dinucleotide level identified a significant undererpresentation of some dinucleotide and the overrepresention of others. The bias at trinucleotide level was on average low. Finally, the analysis of bryophyte coding sequences showed mononucleotide, dinucleotide and trinucleotide compositional trends resembling those of higher plants. This finding suggested that the emergenge of compositional bias

  9. Trend Over Time for Cholecystectomy following the Introduction of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2018-03-05

    Mar 5, 2018 ... Trend Over Time for Cholecystectomy following the Introduction of. Laparoscopy in a Nigerian Tertiary ... How to cite this article: Adisa AO, Lawal OO, Adejuyigbe O. Trend over time for cholecystectomy following .... The challenges with record keeping in the era of open cholecystectomy in our center made it ...

  10. Time trends in biological fertility in Western Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joffe, Michael; Holmes, Jane; Jensen, Tina Kold

    2013-01-01

    analyses demonstrated that this rise was visible as a male cohort effect for both TTP and contraceptive failure. On the other hand, the female birth cohort effect showed a slight fall in the first half of the study period for both TTP and contraceptive failure. As a period effect, fertility remained...... of which are calculated to be small. The declining female fertility accords with a falling dizygotic twinning rate during the same period.......We investigated trends in biological fertility in a comprehensive analysis of 5 major European data sets with data on time to pregnancy (TTP) and proportion of contraceptive failures. In particular, we distinguished a period effect from a birth cohort effect (lifelong tendency) in both sexes...

  11. Trend analyses in the health behaviour in school-aged children study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schnohr, Christina W; Molcho, Michal; Rasmussen, Mette

    2015-01-01

    are considered. When analysing trends, researchers must be able to assess whether a change in prevalence is an expression of an actual change in the observed outcome, whether it is a result of methodological artefacts, or whether it is due to changes in the conceptualization of the outcome by the respondents....... CONCLUSION: The article present recommendations to take a number of the considerations into account. The considerations imply methodological challenges, which are core issues in undertaking trend analyses....... collecting data from adolescents aged 11-15 years, on a broad variety of health determinants and health behaviours. RESULTS: A number of methodological challenges have stemmed from the growth of the HBSC-study, in particular given that the study has a focus on monitoring trends. Some of those challenges...

  12. Stratospheric Temperature Trends Observed by TIMED/SABER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, T.; Tan, R.

    2017-12-01

    Trends in the stratospheric temperature are studied based on the temperature profile observation from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). The spatially trends are evaluated in different time scales ranging from decadal to monthly resolved. The results indicate a signature of BDC acceleration. There are strong warming trends (up to 9 K/decade) in the middle to upper stratosphere in the high latitude spring, summer, and autumn seasons, accompanied by strong cooling trends in the lower stratosphere. Besides, strong warming trends occurs through the whole stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere, which confirms Antarctic ozone layer healing since 2000. In addition, the results demonstrate a significant warming trends in the middle of tropical stratosphere, which becomes strongest during June-July-August.

  13. Time trends in physical activity in leisure time in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Christina Bjørk; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Helge, Jørn Wulff

    2010-01-01

    AIMS: To examine time trends in leisure-time physical activity in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005. METHODS: Analyses were based on four national representative population surveys of 4752 respondents in 1987, 4667 in 1994, 16,688 in 2000, and 14,566 in 2005. Associations between leisure......-time physical activity (dichotomised into high versus low) and temporal changes according to year of birth, age, and calendar-year were estimated in an age-period-cohort logistic regression model. Time trends in socioeconomic differences in physical activity were analysed by testing interaction terms. RESULTS......: The odds ratio (OR) of being highly physically active in leisure time in 2005 compared to 1987 was 1.6 (95% CI: 1.3-1.9) among men and 1.8 (95% CI: 1.5-2.2) among women. The age- and calendar-year-adjusted probability of being highly physically active increased with year of birth. The OR of being highly...

  14. Trend analyses of transformer problems in the U.S. nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimada, Yoshio

    2009-01-01

    Up to 2007, the authors have conducted the trend analyses of trouble events related to main generators, emergency diesel generators, breakers and motors, which are more likely to cause problems than other electric equipments in nuclear power plants. The frequency of trouble events in transformers in domestic nuclear power plants at present is approximately one third of the publicly reported cases in the U.S. However, as the situation of maintenance in Japan in the future will become similar to those in the U.S. if the operating period is extended or the maintenance method is to be shifted from preventive maintenance to condition based maintenance, there is a concern that the frequency of transformer events in Japan will increase in Japan, also. Thus, trend analyses were conducted on transformers events which had not been subject to such analyses, from among electrical equipments which are likely to cause problems. The trend analyses were performed on 23 transformer events which had occurred in the U.S. nuclear power plants in five years from 2003 through 2007 among events reported in the Licensee Event Reports (LERs: event reports submitted to NRC by U.S. nuclear power plants) which have been registered in the nuclear information database of the Institute of Nuclear Safety System, Incorporated's (INSS), as well as 8 events registered in the Nuclear Information Archives (NUCIA), which had occurred in domestic nuclear power plants in five from 2003 through 2007. Lessons learned from the trend analyses of the transformer trouble events in the U.S. revealed that for transformers in general, the maintenance management of tap changers is important, while for the main transformers which are most likely to cause problems, it is vital to prevent the deterioration of insulation and insulating oil. (author)

  15. Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

    2017-01-01

    We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; ponline trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; ponline trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.

  16. Detecting cognizable trends of gene expression in a time series ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This poses difficulties in conducting formal statistical tests of significance of ... The proposed algorithm captured known 'time-trends' in the simulated data with a high probability ... to draw valid inferences even when the sample size is small.

  17. Wall thinning trend analyses for secondary side piping of Korean NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, K.M.; Jin, T.E.; Lee, S.H.; Jeon, S.C.

    2003-01-01

    Since the mid-1990s, nuclear power plants in Korea have experienced wall thinning, leaks, and ruptures of secondary side piping caused by flow-accelerated corrosion (FAC). The pipe failures have increased as operating time progresses. In order to prevent the FAC-induced pipe failures and to develop an effective FAC management strategy, KEPRI and KOPEC have conducted a study for developing systematic FAC management technology for secondary side piping of all Korean nuclear power plants. As a part of the study, FAC analyses were performed using the CHECWORKS code. The analysis results were used to select components for inspection and to determine inspection intervals on each nuclear power plant. This paper describes the introduction of the FAC analysis method and the wall thinning trend analysis results by reactor type, system, and water treatment amine. This paper also represents the site application feasibility for secondary side piping management. The site application feasibility of the analysis results was proven by comparisons of predicted and measured wear rates. (author)

  18. Trend analysis of time-series data: A novel method for untargeted metabolite discovery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, S.; Janssen, H.-G.; Vivó-Truyols, G.

    2010-01-01

    A new strategy for biomarker discovery is presented that uses time-series metabolomics data. Data sets from samples analysed at different time points after an intervention are searched for compounds that show a meaningful trend following the intervention. Obviously, this requires new data-analytical

  19. Time trends in absolute and relative socioeconomic inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in northern Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szilcz, Máté; Mosquera, Paola A; Sebastián, Miguel San; Gustafsson, Per E

    2018-02-01

    The aim was to investigate the time trends in educational, occupational, and income-related inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in 2006, 2010, and 2014 in northern Swedish women and men. This study was based on data obtained from the repeated cross-sectional Health on Equal Terms survey of 2006, 2010, and 2014. The analytical sample consisted of 20,667 (2006), 31,787 (2010), and 21,613 (2014) individuals, aged 16-84. Logistic regressions were used to model the probability of physical inactivity given a set of explanatory variables. Slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII) were used as summary measures of the social gradient in physical inactivity. The linear trend in inequalities and difference between gender and years were estimated by interaction analyses. The year 2010 displayed the highest physical inactivity inequalities for all socioeconomic position indicators, but educational and occupational inequalities decreased in 2014. However, significant positive linear trends were found in absolute and relative income inequalities. Moreover, women had significantly higher RII of education in physical inactivity in 2014 and significantly higher SII and RII of income in physical inactivity in 2010, than did men in the same years. The recent reduction in educational and occupational inequalities following the high inequalities around the time of the great recession in 2010 suggests that the current policies might be fairly effective. However, to eventually alleviate inequities in physical inactivity, the focus of the researchers and policymakers should be directed toward the widening trends of income inequalities in physical inactivity.

  20. Real-time trend monitoring of gas compressor stations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Hardeveld, T. (Nova, an Alberta Corp., AB (Canada))

    1991-02-01

    The authors' company has developed a machinery health monitoring system (MHealth) for short-term and long-term historical trending and analysis of data from its 40 gas compressor stations. The author discusses the benefits of real-time trending in troubleshooting operations, in preventative maintenance scheduling and cites specific applications in the startup operations of several new gas compressor/centrifugal compressor units.

  1. Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...... are rather modest when individual exposures are assessed. Despite that, some exposures have been reported to be associated to early (e.g., polybrominated biphenyls) or delayed (e.g., lead) puberty. Here we shortly review the available data on recent trends in timing of puberty and the possible role...

  2. Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...

  3. United States Forest Disturbance Trends Observed Using Landsat Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masek, Jeffrey G.; Goward, Samuel N.; Kennedy, Robert E.; Cohen, Warren B.; Moisen, Gretchen G.; Schleeweis, Karen; Huang, Chengquan

    2013-01-01

    Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing U.S. land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest disturbance across the conterminous United States for 1985-2005. The geographic sample design used a probability-based scheme to encompass major forest types and maximize geographic dispersion. For each sample location disturbance was identified in the Landsat series using the Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) algorithm. The NAFD analysis indicates that, on average, 2.77 Mha/yr of forests were disturbed annually, representing 1.09%/yr of US forestland. These satellite-based national disturbance rates estimates tend to be lower than those derived from land management inventories, reflecting both methodological and definitional differences. In particular the VCT approach used with a biennial time step has limited sensitivity to low-intensity disturbances. Unlike prior satellite studies, our biennial forest disturbance rates vary by nearly a factor of two between high and low years. High western US disturbance rates were associated with active fire years and insect activity, while variability in the east is more strongly related to harvest rates in managed forests. We note that generating a geographic sample based on representing forest type and variability may be problematic since the spatial pattern of disturbance does not necessarily correlate with forest type. We also find that the prevalence of diffuse, non-stand clearing disturbance in US forests makes the application of a biennial geographic sample problematic. Future satellite-based studies of disturbance at regional and national scales should focus on wall-to-wall analyses with annual time step for improved accuracy.

  4. Three measures of longevity: time trends and record values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canudas-Romo, V

    2010-01-01

    at birth increased from a level of 44 years in Sweden in 1840 to 82 years in Japan in 2005. The record median age at death shows increasing patterns similar to those observed in life expectancy at birth. However, the record modal age at death changes very little until the second half of the twentieth......This article examines the trend over time in the measures of “typical” longevity experienced by members of a population: life expectancy at birth, and the median and modal ages at death. The article also analyzes trends in record values observed for all three measures. The record life expectancy...... time from a dominance of child mortality reductions to a dominance of adult mortality reductions, which became evident by studying trends in the record modal age at death....

  5. Seasonal adjustment methods and real time trend-cycle estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Bee Dagum, Estela

    2016-01-01

    This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportat...

  6. Radioactive contamination in Norwegian fish and seafood 1960-2013: time trends and geographical trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heldal, Hilde Elise; Svaeren, Ingrid; Liebig, Penny Lee [Institute of Marine Research, P. O. Box 1870 Nordnes, N-5817 Bergen (Norway); Brungot, Anne Lene; Gaefvert, Torbjoern; Rudjord, Anne Liv [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, P.O. Box 55, N-1332 Oesteraas (Norway); Gwynn, Justin [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, The Fram Centre, N-9296 Tromsoe (Norway)

    2014-07-01

    Barents Sea in 2012). However, time trends and geographical trends are clearly evident in the datasets. For example, the impact of fallout from the Chernobyl accident could be observed, particularly in samples collected in coastal areas and the Kattegat/Skagerrak and the North Sea. In recent decades there has been a slow decrease in the activity concentrations of most anthropogenic radionuclides in fish and seafood as a result of decreasing discharges from European reprocessing plants for spent nuclear fuel and the reduced impact of fallout from the Chernobyl accident. In the case of {sup 99}Tc however, activity concentrations in seawater and certain biota increased to peak values around 2000 as a result of increased discharges from Sellafield (UK) in the 1990's. In open sea areas, the activity concentrations of {sup 137}Cs in fish and seafood have been highest in the Skagerrak and the North Sea due to the proximity to the reprocessing plants at Sellafield and Cap la Hague (France) and outflowing Chernobyl-contaminated seawater from the Baltic Sea. Activity concentrations of {sup 137}Cs in fish and seafood collected in fjords in mid-Norway are up to an order of magnitude higher than in the open sea areas due to terrestrial run-off from Chernobyl fallout in Norway. (authors)

  7. United States forest disturbance trends observed with landsat time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey G. Masek; Samuel N. Goward; Robert E. Kennedy; Warren B. Cohen; Gretchen G. Moisen; Karen Schleweiss; Chengquan. Huang

    2013-01-01

    Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing US land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest...

  8. Assessing trends in fishery resources and lake-water aluminum from paleolimnological analyses of siliceous algae

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kingston, J.C.; Birks, H.J.B.; Uutala, A.J.; Cummings, B.F.; Smol, J.P.

    1992-01-01

    Lake water aluminum concentrations have a significant influence on the composition of microfossil assemblages of diatoms and chrysophytes deposited in lake sediments. With the paleolimnological approach of multilake datasets in the Adirondack region of New York, USA, the authors use canonical correspondence analysis to describe past trends in lake water Al. Four lakes, previously investigated regarding acidification and fishery trends, are used to demonstrate that paleolimnological assessment can also provide direction, timing, and magnitude of trends for both toxic metals and fish resources. Additionally, the authors use weighted average regression and calibration to obtain quantitative reconstructions of past lake water Al concentrations. Such reconstructions provide further insight into fishery resource damage and can be compared with modelling results. According to paleolimnological reconstructions, some of the naturally most acidic lakes in the Adirondack region had preindustrial lake water concentrations of inorganic monomeric Al near 4/micromol times L. Although these high concentrations are surprising from a geochemical point of view, they may partially explain the preindustrial absence of fish, as has been independently determined by paleolimnological analysis of phantom midges (Chaoborus). Fishery resource deterioration in acidified Adirondack lakes was coincident with major increases in lake water Al concentrations

  9. Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Chaolong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1 is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

  10. Fast or slow food? Explaining trends in food-related time in the Netherlands, 1975–2005

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandemakers, Jornt; Roeters, Anne|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304837865

    2015-01-01

    The current study analysed trends in the time spent preparing and consuming food and the frequency of outsourcing (going out for dinner and take-out) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2005. We investigated differences between trends on week and weekend days and for different socio-demographic groups.

  11. Fast or slow food? Explaining trends in food-related time in the Netherlands, 1975-2005

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandemakers, J.J.; Roeters, A.

    2015-01-01

    The current study analysed trends in the time spent preparing and consuming food and the frequency of outsourcing (going out for dinner and take-out) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2005. We investigated differences between trends on week and weekend days and for different socio-demographic groups.

  12. Statistical analysis of strait time index and a simple model for trend and trend reversal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kan; Jayaprakash, C.

    2003-06-01

    We analyze the daily closing prices of the Strait Time Index (STI) as well as the individual stocks traded in Singapore's stock market from 1988 to 2001. We find that the Hurst exponent is approximately 0.6 for both the STI and individual stocks, while the normal correlation functions show the random walk exponent of 0.5. We also investigate the conditional average of the price change in an interval of length T given the price change in the previous interval. We find strong correlations for price changes larger than a threshold value proportional to T; this indicates that there is no uniform crossover to Gaussian behavior. A simple model based on short-time trend and trend reversal is constructed. We show that the model exhibits statistical properties and market swings similar to those of the real market.

  13. Drug formularies--good or evil? A view using prescribing analyses and cost trends data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, S

    1994-01-01

    In the UK, the drugs bill has almost trebled in the last 10 years and is consuming an increasing proportion of the total National Health Service spend. If the drugs bill can be limited, greater funds will be available for other areas of the health service. Therefore, cost containment measures which include prescribing from a formulary or generic prescribing are now widely encouraged. Prescribing analyses and cost trends data generated from pharmacists sending dispensed general practitioners' prescriptions to a central point for reimbursement are a valuable tool in the assessment of prescribing habits and can be used by general practitioners when preparing a formulary. In the West Midlands, such data have been used to identify areas of growth in cardiovascular drugs and problem areas where prescribing an expensive formulation has led to a dramatic increase in costs.

  14. Analysing passenger arrivals rates and waiting time at bus stops

    OpenAIRE

    Kaparias, I.; Rossetti, C.; Trozzi, V.

    2015-01-01

    The present study investigates the rather under-explored topic of passenger waiting times at public transport facilities. Using data collected from part of London’s bus network by means of physical counts, measurements and observations, and complemented by on-site passenger interviews, the waiting behaviour is analysed for a number of bus stops served by different numbers of lines. The analysis employs a wide range of statistical methods and tools, and concentrates on three aspects: passenger...

  15. Time trends in axilla management among early breast cancer patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gondos, Adam; Jansen, Lina; Heil, Joerg

    2016-01-01

    Background We examined time trends in axilla management among patients with early breast cancer in European clinical settings. Material and methods EUROCANPlatform partners, including population-based and cancer center-specific registries, provided routinely available clinical cancer registry data...... for a comparative study of axillary management trends among patients with first non-metastatic breast cancer who were not selected for neoadjuvant therapy during the last decade. We used an additional short questionnaire to compare clinical care patterns in 2014. Results Patients treated in cancer centers were...... younger than population-based registry populations. Tumor size and lymph node status distributions varied little between settings or over time. In 2003, sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) use varied between 26% and 81% for pT1 tumors, and between 2% and 68% for pT2 tumors. By 2010, SLNB use increased to 79...

  16. Shinguards effective in preventing lower leg injuries in football: Population-based trend analyses over 25 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vriend, Ingrid; Valkenberg, Huib; Schoots, Wim; Goudswaard, Gert Jan; van der Meulen, Wout J; Backx, Frank J G

    2015-09-01

    The majority of football injuries are caused by trauma to the lower extremities. Shinguards are considered an important measure in preventing lower leg impact abrasions, contusions and fractures. Given these benefits, Fédération Internationale de Football Association introduced the shinguard law in 1990, which made wearing shinguards during matches mandatory. This study evaluated the effect of the introduction of the shinguard law for amateur players in the Netherlands in the 1999/2000-football season on the incidence of lower leg injuries. Time trend analyses on injury data covering 25 years of continuous registration (1986-2010). Data were retrieved from a system that records all emergency department treatments in a random, representative sample of Dutch hospitals. All injuries sustained in football by patients aged 6-65 years were included, except for injuries of the Achilles tendon and Weber fractures. Time trends were analysed with multiple regression analyses; a model was fitted consisting of multiple straight lines, each representing a 5-year period. Patients were predominantly males (92%) and treated for fractures (48%) or abrasions/contusions (52%) to the lower leg. The incidence of lower leg football injuries decreased significantly following the introduction of the shinguard law (1996-2000: -20%; 2001-2005: -25%), whereas the incidence of all other football injuries did not. This effect was more prominent at weekends/match days. No gender differences were found. The results significantly show a preventive effect of the shinguard law underlining the relevance of rule changes as a preventive measure and wearing shinguards during both matches and training sessions. Copyright © 2014 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Trend and pattern analyses of operational data from nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amesz, J.

    1990-01-01

    One step towards maximizing the benefits gained from plant operating experience is the establishment of a rigorous scheme of classification and storage of operational data related to equipment failures and/or human errors. The analysis of data thus collected can fall into one of the following two categories: in-depth analysis of individual incidents which are considered to be of major significance from the safety point of view; and trend and pattern analyses of the stored data with the aim of identifying situations that warrant further studies or that require particular attention. In order to perform the second type of analyses, various approaches/systems are being used by organizations with interests in the nuclear power domain. Similar methodologies may be used in general industrial safety as well. For the purpose of facilitating a comparison between the different methods, the OECD/NEA Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI) decided to organize a specialist meeting jointly with the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) for a systematic and comprehensive review of the matter

  18. Trend Estimation and Regression Analysis in Climatological Time Series: An Application of Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.

    1995-05-01

    The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of

  19. Interrupted time-series analysis: studying trends in neurosurgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Ricky H; Smieliauskas, Fabrice; Pan, I-Wen; Lam, Sandi K

    2015-12-01

    OBJECT Neurosurgery studies traditionally have evaluated the effects of interventions on health care outcomes by studying overall changes in measured outcomes over time. Yet, this type of linear analysis is limited due to lack of consideration of the trend's effects both pre- and postintervention and the potential for confounding influences. The aim of this study was to illustrate interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) as applied to an example in the neurosurgical literature and highlight ITSA's potential for future applications. METHODS The methods used in previous neurosurgical studies were analyzed and then compared with the methodology of ITSA. RESULTS The ITSA method was identified in the neurosurgical literature as an important technique for isolating the effect of an intervention (such as a policy change or a quality and safety initiative) on a health outcome independent of other factors driving trends in the outcome. The authors determined that ITSA allows for analysis of the intervention's immediate impact on outcome level and on subsequent trends and enables a more careful measure of the causal effects of interventions on health care outcomes. CONCLUSIONS ITSA represents a significant improvement over traditional observational study designs in quantifying the impact of an intervention. ITSA is a useful statistical procedure to understand, consider, and implement as the field of neurosurgery evolves in sophistication in big-data analytics, economics, and health services research.

  20. International trends in solid-state lighting : analyses of the article and patent literature.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsao, Jeffrey Yeenien; Huey, Mark C. (Strategic Perspectives, Incorporated, McLean, VA); Boyack, Kevin W.; Miksovic, Ann E. (Strategic Perspectives, Incorporated, McLean, VA)

    2008-07-01

    We present an analysis of the literature of solid-state lighting, based on a comprehensive dataset of 35,851 English-language articles and 12,420 U.S. patents published or issued during the years 1977-2004 in the foundational knowledge domain of electroluminescent materials and phenomena. The dataset was created using a complex, iteratively developed search string. The records in the dataset were then partitioned according to: whether they are articles or patents, their publication or issue date, their national or continental origin, whether the active electroluminescent material was inorganic or organic, and which of a number of emergent knowledge sub-domains they aggregate into on the basis of bibliographic coupling. From these partitionings, we performed a number of analyses, including: identification of knowledge sub-domains of historical and recent importance, and trends over time of the contributions of various nations and continents to the knowledge domain and its sub-domains. Among the key results: (1) The knowledge domain as a whole has been growing quickly: the average growth rates of the inorganic and organic knowledge sub-domains have been 8%/yr and 25%/yr, respectively, compared to average growth rates less than 5%/yr for English-language articles and U.S. patents in other knowledge domains. The growth rate of the organic knowledge sub-domain is so high that its historical dominance by the inorganic knowledge sub-domain will, at current trajectories, be reversed in the coming decade. (2) Amongst nations, the U.S. is the largest contributor to the overall knowledge domain, but Japan is on a trajectory to become the largest contributor within the coming half-decade. Amongst continents, Asia became the largest contributor during the past half-decade, overwhelmingly so for the organic knowledge sub-domain. (3) The relative contributions to the article and patent datasets differ for the major continents: North America contributing relatively more patents

  1. Time Trends in School Well-Being Among Adolescents in Oslo: Can Trends be Explained by Social Relationships?

    OpenAIRE

    Wilhelmsen, Tiril

    2017-01-01

    Even though well-being in the domain of school is important for mental health, time trend research of this topic is limited. In particular, there is a lack of research investigating differences between ethnic minority and majority students, and there is a lack of literature empirically exploring possible explanations for the time trends in school well-being. The aims of this study were to investigate time trends in school well-being among adolescents in Oslo, explore moderations by gender and...

  2. Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

    2017-04-01

    Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological

  3. Time trends in the natural dizygotic twinning rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derom, Catherine; Gielen, Marij; Peeters, Hilde; Frijns, Jean-Pierre; Zeegers, Maurice P A

    2011-08-01

    The natural dizygotic (DZ) twinning rate has been proposed as a reliable and useful measure of human fecundity, if adjusted for maternal age at twin birth. The aim of this study was to analyze age-adjusted trends in natural DZ twinning rates over the past 40 years using data from the 'East Flanders Prospective Twin Survey (EFPTS)'. This study involved 4835 naturally conceived twin pregnancies between 1969 and 2009 from the population-based Belgian 'EFPTS'. Age-adjusted trends in the incidence of natural DZ twin pregnancies were calculated using a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. Both the natural DZ twinning rates and maternal age at twin birth increased in a linear fashion from 1969 to 2009. When age-adjusted, we found that the trend in the natural DZ twinning rate was stable during the whole time period. According to our population-based data and after age-adjustment, a stable natural DZ twinning rate could be observed over the last four decades. Under the assumption that the spontaneous DZ twinning rate is a sensor of fecundity, this indicates a stable 'high' fecundity for this population.

  4. Time trends of US hospitalization for esophageal disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnenberg, Amnon

    2014-09-01

    The occurrence of reflux disease seems to be rising in the United States. The aim of the present study was to follow the time trends of hospitalization for gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and other esophageal disease during the past 4 decades. US hospital utilization data were available for individual years from 1970 to 2010 through the National Hospital Discharge Survey. Esophageal diagnoses were stratified by their ninth revision of the International Classification of Diseases codes. Annual hospitalizations were expressed as rates per 100,000 living US population. GERD was by far the most common esophageal disorder resulting in hospitalization. However, in only 5% of instances did GERD-related diagnoses constitute the primary cause of hospitalization. Between 1970 and 2010 the rates of GERD-related hospitalizations increased in an exponential manner almost 10-fold. This rise affected both sex and all age groups alike. A 3-fold rise was noted in hospitalizations for esophageal adenocarcinoma. Other esophageal diagnoses, such as achalasia, dyskinesia, or stricture were characterized by falling or stable trends. US hospitalization data show a continued exponential rise in the occurrence of GERD without any signs of leveling off. These trends are likely to represent ongoing changes in the underlying incidence and prevalence of the disease.

  5. Trajectory data analyses for pedestrian space-time activity study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Feng; Du, Fei

    2013-02-25

    It is well recognized that human movement in the spatial and temporal dimensions has direct influence on disease transmission(1-3). An infectious disease typically spreads via contact between infected and susceptible individuals in their overlapped activity spaces. Therefore, daily mobility-activity information can be used as an indicator to measure exposures to risk factors of infection. However, a major difficulty and thus the reason for paucity of studies of infectious disease transmission at the micro scale arise from the lack of detailed individual mobility data. Previously in transportation and tourism research detailed space-time activity data often relied on the time-space diary technique, which requires subjects to actively record their activities in time and space. This is highly demanding for the participants and collaboration from the participants greatly affects the quality of data(4). Modern technologies such as GPS and mobile communications have made possible the automatic collection of trajectory data. The data collected, however, is not ideal for modeling human space-time activities, limited by the accuracies of existing devices. There is also no readily available tool for efficient processing of the data for human behavior study. We present here a suite of methods and an integrated ArcGIS desktop-based visual interface for the pre-processing and spatiotemporal analyses of trajectory data. We provide examples of how such processing may be used to model human space-time activities, especially with error-rich pedestrian trajectory data, that could be useful in public health studies such as infectious disease transmission modeling. The procedure presented includes pre-processing, trajectory segmentation, activity space characterization, density estimation and visualization, and a few other exploratory analysis methods. Pre-processing is the cleaning of noisy raw trajectory data. We introduce an interactive visual pre-processing interface as well as an

  6. Trend Analyses of Users of a Syringe Exchange Program in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: 1999-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer, Laurie A; Bass, Sarah Bauerle; Ye, Du; Benitez, José; Mazzella, Silvana; Krafty, Robert

    2016-12-01

    This study examines trends of injection drug users' (IDUs) use of a Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, syringe exchange program (SEP) from 1999 to 2014, including changes in demographics, drug use, substance abuse treatment, geographic indicators, and SEP use. Prevention Point Philadelphia's SEP registration data were analyzed using linear regression, Pearson's Chi square, and t-tests. Over time new SEP registrants have become younger, more racially diverse, and geographically more concentrated in specific areas of the city, corresponding to urban demographic shifts. The number of new registrants per year has decreased, however syringes exchanged have increased. Gentrification, cultural norms, and changes in risk perception are believed to have contributed to the changes in SEP registration. Demographic changes indicate outreach strategies for IDUs may need adjusting to address unique barriers for younger, more racially diverse users. Implications for SEPs are discussed, including policy and continued ability to address current public health threats.

  7. Gender, Time and Inequality: Trends in Women's and Men's Paid Work, Unpaid Work and Free Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayer, Liana C.

    2005-01-01

    This analysis uses nationally representative time diary data from 1965, 1975 and 1998 to examine trends and gender differences in time use. Women continue to do more household labor than men; however, men have substantially increased time in core household activities such as cooking, cleaning and daily child care. Nonetheless, a 30-minute-per-day…

  8. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

  9. Time Delay Systems Methods, Applications and New Trends

    CERN Document Server

    Vyhlídal, Tomáš; Niculescu, Silviu-Iulian; Pepe, Pierdomenico

    2012-01-01

    This volume is concerned with the control and dynamics of time delay systems; a research field with at least six-decade long history that has been very active especially in the past two decades. In parallel to the new challenges emerging from engineering, physics, mathematics, and economics, the volume covers several new directions including topology induced stability, large-scale interconnected systems, roles of networks in stability, and new trends in predictor-based control and consensus dynamics. The associated applications/problems are described by highly complex models, and require solving inverse problems as well as the development of new theories, mathematical tools, numerically-tractable algorithms for real-time control. The volume, which is targeted to present these developments in this rapidly evolving field, captures a careful selection of the most recent papers contributed by experts and collected under five parts: (i) Methodology: From Retarded to Neutral Continuous Delay Models, (ii) Systems, S...

  10. Time series trends of the safety effects of pavement resurfacing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Juneyoung; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Jung-Han

    2017-04-01

    This study evaluated the safety performance of pavement resurfacing projects on urban arterials in Florida using the observational before and after approaches. The safety effects of pavement resurfacing were quantified in the crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimated based on different ranges of heavy vehicle traffic volume and time changes for different severity levels. In order to evaluate the variation of CMFs over time, crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were developed using nonlinear regression and time series models. The results showed that pavement resurfacing projects decrease crash frequency and are found to be more safety effective to reduce severe crashes in general. Moreover, the results of the general relationship between the safety effects and time changes indicated that the CMFs increase over time after the resurfacing treatment. It was also found that pavement resurfacing projects for the urban roadways with higher heavy vehicle volume rate are more safety effective than the roadways with lower heavy vehicle volume rate. Based on the exploration and comparison of the developed CMFucntions, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential functional form of the nonlinear regression models can be utilized to identify the trend of CMFs over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-09-01

    Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

  12. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

  13. Time trends of physical activity in Brazil (2006-2009).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallal, Pedro C; Knuth, Alan G; Reis, Rodrigo S; Rombaldi, Airton J; Malta, Deborah C; Iser, Betine P M; Bernal, Regina T I; Florindo, Alex A

    2011-09-01

    To examine time trends in physical activity (PA) in Brazilian state capitals from 2006 to 2009. This analysis is based on data from the Telephone-based Surveillance of Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases (VIGITEL) accounting for an annual sample of approximately 54,000 individuals. PA indicators were analyzed in free time (leisure), work, home and transportation, time spent in front of the television and inactivity considering all PA domains. Poisson regression models were used to measure the variation of indicators over time. We considered the changes corresponding to a regression coefficient different from zero as being statistically significant (p<0.05). The percentage of active commuters increased from 11.7 to 14.4% (p<0.001) whereas the proportion of physically inactive individuals in the four domains decreased from 11.7 to 8.7% (p<0.001). There were no significant changes in the other indicators. Women were less active than men in all indicators, except for household chores. However, in this indicator the percentage of active women decreased from 71.4 to 67.1% (p<0.001). Between 2006 and 2009, PA levels in the Brazilian population were stable during free time and household chores, but increased in transportation, resulting in a decrease in the percentage of inactive individuals. The continued monitoring and strengthening of VIGITEL are public health priorities, and PA is a key part of it. In the long run, PA evolution may be re-evaluated.

  14. Reducing preoperative fasting time: A trend based on evidence

    OpenAIRE

    de Aguilar-Nascimento, José Eduardo; Dock-Nascimento, Diana Borges

    2010-01-01

    Preoperative fasting is mandatory before anesthesia to reduce the risk of aspiration. However, the prescribed 6-8 h of fasting is usually prolonged to 12-16 h for various reasons. Prolonged fasting triggers a metabolic response that precipitates gluconeogenesis and increases the organic response to trauma. Various randomized trials and meta-analyses have consistently shown that is safe to reduce the preoperative fasting time with a carbohydrate-rich drink up to 2 h before surgery. Benefits re...

  15. Scientometric trend analyses of publications on the history of psychology: Is psychology becoming an unhistorical science?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krampen, Günter

    Examines scientometrically the trends in and the recent situation of research on and the teaching of the history of psychology in the German-speaking countries and compares the findings with the situation in other countries (mainly the United States) by means of the psychology databases PSYNDEX and PsycINFO. Declines of publications on the history of psychology are described scientometrically for both research communities since the 1990s. Some impulses are suggested for the future of research on and the teaching of the history of psychology. These include (1) the necessity and significance of an intensified use of quantitative, unobtrusive scientometric methods in historiography in times of digital "big data", (2) the necessity and possibilities to integrate qualitative and quantitative methodologies in historical research and teaching, (3) the reasonableness of interdisciplinary cooperation of specialist historians, scientometricians, and psychologists, (4) the meaningfulness and necessity to explore, investigate, and teach more intensively the past and the problem history of psychology as well as the understanding of the subject matter of psychology in its historical development in cultural contexts. The outlook on the future of such a more up-to-date research on and teaching of the history of psychology is-with some caution-positive.

  16. Wairarapa Valley groundwater : residence time, flow pattern, and hydrochemistry trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenstern, U.

    2005-01-01

    The Wairarapa groundwater system has a complicated hydrogeological setting as it evolved from sea level changes, tectonic activity, and geomorphic process. Due to increasing groundwater demand a better understanding of the groundwater resources is required to help achieve effective management and sustainable use. In addition to previous 'classical' hydrogeology studies, this report represents the first stage of a comprehensive approach using age dating and chemistry time trends for understanding the Wairarapa groundwater system. The methodology of groundwater age dating and mixing models is described in Appendix 1. Historic tritium data were evaluated, and combined with new tritium and CFC/SF 6 data to allow for robust age dating. (author). 14 refs., 30 figs

  17. HESS Opinions "More efforts and scientific rigour are needed to attribute trends in flood time series"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hundecha

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The question whether the magnitude and frequency of floods have changed due to climate change or other drivers of change is of high interest. The number of flood trend studies is rapidly rising. When changes are detected, many studies link the identified change to the underlying causes, i.e. they attribute the changes in flood behaviour to certain drivers of change. We propose a hypothesis testing framework for trend attribution which consists of essential ingredients for a sound attribution: evidence of consistency, evidence of inconsistency, and provision of confidence statement. Further, we evaluate the current state-of-the-art of flood trend attribution. We assess how selected recent studies approach the attribution problem, and to which extent their attribution statements seem defendable. In our opinion, the current state of flood trend attribution is poor. Attribution statements are mostly based on qualitative reasoning or even speculation. Typically, the focus of flood trend studies is the detection of change, i.e. the statistical analysis of time series, and attribution is regarded as an appendix: (1 flood time series are analysed by means of trend tests, (2 if a significant change is detected, a hypothesis on the cause of change is given, and (3 explanations or published studies are sought which support the hypothesis. We believe that we need a change in perspective and more scientific rigour: detection should be seen as an integral part of the more challenging attribution problem, and detection and attribution should be placed in a sound hypothesis testing framework.

  18. Time Series Analysis of Insar Data: Methods and Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osmanoglu, Batuhan; Sunar, Filiz; Wdowinski, Shimon; Cano-Cabral, Enrique

    2015-01-01

    Time series analysis of InSAR data has emerged as an important tool for monitoring and measuring the displacement of the Earth's surface. Changes in the Earth's surface can result from a wide range of phenomena such as earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, variations in ground water levels, and changes in wetland water levels. Time series analysis is applied to interferometric phase measurements, which wrap around when the observed motion is larger than one-half of the radar wavelength. Thus, the spatio-temporal ''unwrapping" of phase observations is necessary to obtain physically meaningful results. Several different algorithms have been developed for time series analysis of InSAR data to solve for this ambiguity. These algorithms may employ different models for time series analysis, but they all generate a first-order deformation rate, which can be compared to each other. However, there is no single algorithm that can provide optimal results in all cases. Since time series analyses of InSAR data are used in a variety of applications with different characteristics, each algorithm possesses inherently unique strengths and weaknesses. In this review article, following a brief overview of InSAR technology, we discuss several algorithms developed for time series analysis of InSAR data using an example set of results for measuring subsidence rates in Mexico City.

  19. Measurement of the Dead-Time in a Multichannel Analyser

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, L.; Olsen, J.

    1973-01-01

    By means of two simple measurements three different dead-times are determined: the normal dead-time, a dead-time coming from the pile-up, and a dead-time due to the finite width of the timing pulses.......By means of two simple measurements three different dead-times are determined: the normal dead-time, a dead-time coming from the pile-up, and a dead-time due to the finite width of the timing pulses....

  20. Maternal inactivity: 45-year trends in mothers' use of time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archer, Edward; Lavie, Carl J; McDonald, Samantha M; Thomas, Diana M; Hébert, James R; Taverno Ross, Sharon E; McIver, Kerry L; Malina, Robert M; Blair, Steven N

    2013-12-01

    To examine 45-year trends in time use and physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) in a nationally representative sample of US mothers. We quantified time allocation to physical activity (PA), sedentary behaviors (SED), and PAEE from 1965 to 2010 in mothers with older children (MOC) (>5 to ≤18 years) and mothers with younger children (MYC) (≤5 years). Physical activity was the sum of time allocated to housework, child care, laundry, food preparation, postmeal cleanup, and exercise. Sedentary behavior was the sum of time spent in a vehicle and using screen-based media. Physical activity energy expenditure was calculated using body weights from national surveys and metabolic equivalents. From 1965 to 2010, the time allocated to PA decreased by 11.1 h/wk (from 32.0 to 20.9 h/wk) in MOC and by 13.9 h/wk (from 43.6 to 29.7 h/wk) in MYC. The time spent in SED increased by 7.0 h/wk in MOC (from 17.7 to 24.7 h/wk) and increased by 5.7 h/wk in MYC (from 17.0 to 22.7 h/wk). Physical activity energy expenditure decreased by 1237.6 kcal/wk (176.8 kcal/d) in MOC (from 5835.3 to 4597.7 kcal/wk), and in MYC, PAEE decreased by 1572.5 kcal/wk (224.6 kcal/d), from 7690.5 to 6118.0 kcal/wk. There was a significant reallocation of time by mothers from PA (eg, housework) to SED (eg, watching television) between 1965 and 2010. Given the essential role of PA for health and the potential for the intergenerational transmission of obesity and obesogenic behaviors, these results suggest that maternal inactivity may be an important target for the primary prevention of chronic noncommunicable diseases and obesity. Copyright © 2013 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Reducing preoperative fasting time: A trend based on evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Aguilar-Nascimento, José Eduardo; Dock-Nascimento, Diana Borges

    2010-03-27

    Preoperative fasting is mandatory before anesthesia to reduce the risk of aspiration. However, the prescribed 6-8 h of fasting is usually prolonged to 12-16 h for various reasons. Prolonged fasting triggers a metabolic response that precipitates gluconeogenesis and increases the organic response to trauma. Various randomized trials and meta-analyses have consistently shown that is safe to reduce the preoperative fasting time with a carbohydrate-rich drink up to 2 h before surgery. Benefits related to this shorter preoperative fasting include the reduction of postoperative gastrointestinal discomfort and insulin resistance. New formulas containing amino acids such as glutamine and other peptides are being studied and are promising candidates to be used to reduce preoperative fasting time.

  2. On the Use of Running Trends as Summary Statistics for Univariate Time Series and Time Series Association

    OpenAIRE

    Trottini, Mario; Vigo, Isabel; Belda, Santiago

    2015-01-01

    Given a time series, running trends analysis (RTA) involves evaluating least squares trends over overlapping time windows of L consecutive time points, with overlap by all but one observation. This produces a new series called the “running trends series,” which is used as summary statistics of the original series for further analysis. In recent years, RTA has been widely used in climate applied research as summary statistics for time series and time series association. There is no doubt that ...

  3. Futures for Higher Education: Analysing Trends. Higher Education: Meeting the Challenges of the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Universities UK, 2012

    2012-01-01

    Higher education in the United Kingdom is undergoing a period of significant change. This is being driven by a number of factors: political, cultural, economic, and technological. The trends are global in their scope, and far reaching in their impact. They affect every aspect of university provision, the environment in which universities operate,…

  4. Time-trend of melanoma screening practice by primary care physicians: a meta-regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valachis, Antonis; Mauri, Davide; Karampoiki, Vassiliki; Polyzos, Nikolaos P; Cortinovis, Ivan; Koukourakis, Georgios; Zacharias, Georgios; Xilomenos, Apostolos; Tsappi, Maria; Casazza, Giovanni

    2009-01-01

    To assess whether the proportion of primary care physicians implementing full body skin examination (FBSE) to screen for melanoma changed over time. Meta-regression analyses of available data. MEDLINE, ISI, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Fifteen studies surveying 10,336 physicians were included in the analyses. Overall, 15%-82% of them reported to perform FBSE to screen for melanoma. The proportion of physicians using FBSE screening tended to decrease by 1.72% per year (P =0.086). Corresponding annual changes in European, North American, and Australian settings were -0.68% (P =0.494), -2.02% (P =0.044), and +2.59% (P =0.010), respectively. Changes were not influenced by national guide-lines. Considering the increasing incidence of melanoma and other skin malignancies, as well as their relative potential consequences, the FBSE implementation time-trend we retrieved should be considered a worrisome phenomenon.

  5. Analysing playing using the note-time playing path.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaff, Deborah L E; Schubert, Emery

    2011-03-01

    This article introduces a new method of data analysis that represents the playing of written music as a graph. The method, inspired by Miklaszewski, charts low-level note timings from a sound recording of a single-line instrument using high-precision audio-to-MIDI conversion software. Note onset times of pitch sequences are then plotted against the score-predicted timings to produce a Note-Time Playing Path (NTPP). The score-predicted onset time of each sequentially performed note (horizontal axis) unfolds in performed time down the page (vertical axis). NTPPs provide a visualisation that shows (1) tempo variations, (2) repetitive practice behaviours, (3) segmenting of material, (4) precise note time positions, and (5) time spent on playing or not playing. The NTPP can provide significant new insights into behaviour and cognition of music performance and may also be used to complement established traditional approaches such as think-alouds, interviews, and video coding.

  6. Ecological stages of the Venice Lagoon analysed using landing time series data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libralato, Simone; Pranovi, Fabio; Raicevich, Saša; Da Ponte, Filippo; Giovanardi, Otello; Pastres, Roberto; Torricelli, Patrizia; Mainardi, Danilo

    2004-11-01

    The time series of landings in the Venice Lagoon from 1945 to 2001 were analysed with the aim of explaining the ecosystem changes occurred. The comparative analysis of the total landings and mean Trophic Level (mTL) time series allowed to identify four different stages in the lagoon ecosystem. The first period, from 1945 to 1973, was characterised by increasing trends in the landings and their mTL. The second one, from 1974 to 1989, showed a decrease in the landings but still an increase in the mTL. The third period, from 1990 to 1998, had again a positive trend in the landings, but the mTL showed a sharp decline. After 1998, a slight decreasing trend in both mTL and landings was observed: the analyses of the artisanal fishery landings only date back to 1995 this effect. The presence of four distinct periods was also confirmed by the analysis of the trends of other indices estimated using landings data: the Fishing in Balance index (FiB), the Trophic Efficiency (TE) and the Pelagic on Demersal landings ratio (P/D). In the first period, the increasing fishing pressure, along with no evidence of ecosystem crisis, suggested that an increased nutrient discharge was supporting it; analogously, the bottom-up effects had driven the dynamics of the ecosystem also in the second period, when the decrease in nutrient loads caused a shift of the primary producers from planktonic to macrobenthic. The spreading of the Manila clam, a non-native species, and the development of its massive mechanical exploitation have been the main forces driving the ecosystem during the third period, for which, however, no signs of crises were detected. The fourth period showed evidence of the "fishing down the food web" effect. Possible causes of such an effect were investigated and allowed us to conclude that not overfishing, but the effects of mechanical harvesting of the Manila clam had caused relevant impacts on habitat and benthic communities, concluding that the present level of

  7. Time-Scale and Time-Frequency Analyses of Irregularly Sampled Astronomical Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Roques

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the quality of spectral restoration in the case of irregular sampled signals in astronomy. We study in details a time-scale method leading to a global wavelet spectrum comparable to the Fourier period, and a time-frequency matching pursuit allowing us to identify the frequencies and to control the error propagation. In both cases, the signals are first resampled with a linear interpolation. Both results are compared with those obtained using Lomb's periodogram and using the weighted waveletZ-transform developed in astronomy for unevenly sampled variable stars observations. These approaches are applied to simulations and to light variations of four variable stars. This leads to the conclusion that the matching pursuit is more efficient for recovering the spectral contents of a pulsating star, even with a preliminary resampling. In particular, the results are almost independent of the quality of the initial irregular sampling.

  8. A real-time transfer function analyser program for PFR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McWilliam, D.

    1980-03-01

    A transfer function analyser software package has been produced which is believed to constitute a significant advance over others reported in the literature. The main advantages of the system are its operating speed, especially at low frequencies, which is due to its use of part-cycle integration and its high degree of interactive operator control. The driving sine wave, the return signals and the computed vector diagrams are displayed on TV type visual display units. Data output is by means of an incremental graph plotter or an IBM typewriter. (author)

  9. Efficient use of correlation entropy for analysing time series data

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. The correlation dimension D2 and correlation entropy K2 are both important quantifiers in nonlinear time series analysis. However, use of D2 has been more common compared to K2 as a discriminating measure. One reason for this is that D2 is a static measure and can be easily evaluated from a time series.

  10. Space-time trends in U.S. meteorological droughts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poulomi Ganguli

    2016-12-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The paper finds spatial coverage of extreme meteorological drought in the recent years (post-2010 exceeds that of the iconic droughts of the 1930s (the Dust Bowl era, and the 1950s. These results are in contrast with trends in spatial variance that does not exhibit any statistically significant trend. In addition, we find drought persistence remains relatively stationary over the last half century. The findings can inform drought monitoring and planning, and improve future drought resilience.

  11. Uncertainty analyses of unsaturated zone travel time at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nichols, W.E.; Freshley, M.D.

    1993-01-01

    Uncertainty analysis method can be applied to numerical models of ground-water flow to estimate the relative importance of physical and hydrologic input variables with respect to ground-water travel time. Monte Carlo numerical simulations of unsaturated flow in the Calico Hills nonwelded zeolitic (CHnz) layer at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, indicate that variability in recharge, and to a lesser extent in matrix porosity, explains most of the variability in predictions of water travel time through the unsaturated zone. Variations in saturated hydraulic conductivity and unsaturated curve-fitting parameters were not statistically significant in explaining variability in water travel time through the unsaturated CHnz unit. The results of this study suggest that the large uncertainty associated with recharge rate estimates for the Yucca Mountain site is of concern because the performance of the potential repository would be more sensitive to uncertainty in recharge than to any other parameter evaluated. These results are not exhaustive because of the limited site characterization data available and because of the preliminary nature of this study, which is limited to a single stratigraphic unit, one dimension, and does not account for fracture flow or other potential fast pathways at Yucca Mountain

  12. Forecasting incidence of dengue in Rajasthan, using time series analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatnagar, Sunil; Lal, Vivek; Gupta, Shiv D; Gupta, Om P

    2012-01-01

    To develop a prediction model for dengue fever/dengue haemorrhagic fever (DF/DHF) using time series data over the past decade in Rajasthan and to forecast monthly DF/DHF incidence for 2011. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used for statistical modeling. During January 2001 to December 2010, the reported DF/DHF cases showed a cyclical pattern with seasonal variation. SARIMA (0,0,1) (0,1,1) 12 model had the lowest normalized Bayesian information criteria (BIC) of 9.426 and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 263.361 and appeared to be the best model. The proportion of variance explained by the model was 54.3%. Adequacy of the model was established through Ljung-Box test (Q statistic 4.910 and P-value 0.996), which showed no significant correlation between residuals at different lag times. The forecast for the year 2011 showed a seasonal peak in the month of October with an estimated 546 cases. Application of SARIMA model may be useful for forecast of cases and impending outbreaks of DF/DHF and other infectious diseases, which exhibit seasonal pattern.

  13. Assessment of S(α, β) libraries for criticality safety evaluations of wet storage pools by refined trend analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolbe, E.; Vasiliev, A.; Ferroukhi, H.

    2009-01-01

    In a recent criticality safety evaluation (CSE) of a commercial wet storage pool applying MCNPX-2.5.0 in combination with the ENDF/B-VII.0 and JEFF-3.1 continuous energy cross section libraries, the maximum permissible initial fuel-enrichment limit for water reflected configurations was found to be dependant upon the applied neutron cross section library. More detailed investigations indicated that the difference is mainly caused by different sub-libraries for thermal neutron scattering based on parameterizations of the S(α, β) scattering matrix. Hence an analysis of trends was done with respect to the low energy neutron flux in order to assess the S(α, β) data sets. First, when performing the trend analysis based on the full set of 149 benchmarks that were employed for the validation, significant trends could not be found. But by analyzing a selected subset of benchmarks clear trends with respect to the low energy neutron flux could be detected. The results presented in this paper demonstrate the sensitivity of specific configurations to the parameterizations of the S(α, β) scattering matrix and thus may help to improve CSE of wet storage pools. Finally, in addition to the low energy neutron flux, we also refined the trend analyses with respect to other key (spectrum-related) parameters by performing them with various selected subsets of the full suite of 149 benchmarks. The corresponding outcome using MCNPX 2.5.0 in combination with the ENDF/B-VII.0, ENDF/B-VI.8, JEFF-3.1, JEF-2.2, and JENDL-3.3 neutron cross section libraries are presented and discussed. (authors)

  14. Agenda trending: reciprocity and the predictive capacity of social networking sites in intermedia agenda setting across topics over time

    OpenAIRE

    Groshek, Jacob; Groshek, Megan Clough

    2013-01-01

    In the contemporary converged media environment, agenda setting is being transformed by the dramatic growth of audiences that are simultaneously media users and producers. The study reported here addresses related gaps in the literature by first comparing the topical agendas of two leading traditional media outlets (New York Times and CNN) with the most frequently shared stories and trending topics on two widely popular Social Networking Sites (Facebook and Twitter). Time-series analyses of t...

  15. Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

    2014-02-01

    The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

  16. Trends in prevalence of leisure time physical activity and inactivity: results from Australian National Health Surveys 1989 to 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chau, Josephine; Chey, Tien; Burks-Young, Sarah; Engelen, Lina; Bauman, Adrian

    2017-12-01

    To examine trends in leisure time physical activity and inactivity in Australians aged 15 years or older from 1989 to 2011. We used data from six Australian National Health Surveys conducted from 1989/90 to 2011/12 in which physical activity was assessed using comparable questions. Analyses examined trends in the prevalence of sufficient physical activity (≥150 minutes/week moderate-to-vigorous physical activity) and of inactivity (benefits from sufficient physical activity. Maintenance of consistent physical activity questions in future National Health Surveys will facilitate long term tracking of physical activity levels in the Australian population. © 2017 The Authors.

  17. Trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, body mass index and alcohol consumption in Danish adults with and without diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molsted, Stig; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Snorgaard, Ole

    2014-01-01

    AIMS: In recent decades there has been an increased focus on non-pharmacological treatment of diabetes. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in leisure time physical activity (PA), smoking, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol consumption reported in 2000, 2005 and 2010 by Danish subjects......-sectional analyses from 2000, 2005 and 2010. RESULTS: In participants with diabetes, leisure time PA levels increased from 2000 to 2010: The percentage of those that were physically active increased from 53.5% to 78.2% (p... in participants with diabetes compared to participants without diabetes throughout the study. CONCLUSIONS: The percentage of physically active Danish participants older than 45 years with diabetes increased from 2000 to 2010, and the most beneficial trends in life style were observed among the women. These trends...

  18. Power plant economy of scale and cost trends: further analyses and review of empirical studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, C.F. Jr.; Paik, S.; Schriver, W.R.

    1986-07-01

    Multiple regression analyses were performed on capital cost data for nuclear and coal-fired power plants in an extension of an earlier study which indicated that nuclear units completed prior to the accident at Three-Mile Island (TMI) have no economy of scale, and that units completed after that event have a weak economy of scale (scaling exponent of about 0.81). The earlier study also indicated that the scaling exponent for coal-fired units is about 0.92, compared with conceptual models which project scaling exponents in a range from about 0.5 to 0.9. Other empirical studies have indicated poor economy of scale, but a large range of cost-size scaling exponents has been reported. In the present study, the results for nuclear units indicate a scaling exponent of about 0.94 but with no economy of scale for large units, that a first unit costs 17% more than a second unit, that a unit in the South costs 20% less than others, that a unit completed after TMI costs 33% more than one completed before TMI, and that costs are increasing at 9.3% per year. In the present study, the results for coal-fired units indicate a scaling exponent of 0.93 but with better scaling economy in the larger units, that a first unit costs 38.5% more, a unit in the South costs 10% less, flue-gas desulfurization units cost 23% more, and that costs are increasing at 4% per year

  19. Data Used in Analyses of Trends, and Nutrient and Suspended-Sediment Loads for Streams in the Southeastern United States, 1973-2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staub, Erik L.; Peak, Kelly L.; Tighe, Kirsten C.; Sadorf, Eric M.; Harned, Douglas A.

    2010-01-01

    Water-quality data from selected surface-water monitoring sites in the Southeastern United States were assessed for trends in concentrations of nutrients, suspended sediment, and major constituents and for in-stream nutrient and suspended-sediment loads for the period 1973-2005. The area of interest includes river basins draining into the southern Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Tennessee River-drainage basins in Hydrologic Regions 03 (South Atlantic - Gulf) and 06 (Tennessee). This data assessment is related to studies of several major river basins as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program, which was designed to assess national water-quality trends during a common time period (1993-2004). Included in this report are data on which trend tests could be performed from 44 U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System (NWIS) sampling sites. The constituents examined include major ions, nutrients, and suspended sediment; the physical properties examined include pH, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, and streamflow. Also included are data that were tested for trends from an additional 290 sites from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Storage and Retrieval (STORET) database. The trend analyses of the STORET data were limited to total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations. Data from 48 U.S. Geological Survey NWIS sampling sites with sufficient water-quality and continuous streamflow data for estimating nutrient and sediment loads are included. The methods of data compilation and modification used prior to performing trend tests and load estimation are described. Results of the seasonal Kendall trend test and the Tobit trend test are given for the 334 monitoring sites, and in-stream load estimates are given for the 48 monitoring sites. Basin characteristics are provided, including regional landscape variables and agricultural nutrient sources (annual variations in cropping and fertilizer use

  20. Geographic Variations and Time Trends in Cancer Treatments in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Jason C; Chang, Sheng-Mao; Lu, Christine Y

    2017-08-02

    Targeted therapies have become important treatment options for cancer care in many countries. This study aimed to examine recent trends in utilization of antineoplastic drugs, particularly the use of targeted therapies for treatment of cancer, by geographic region in Taiwan (northern, midwestern, southern, and eastern regions and the outer islands). This was a retrospective observational study of antineoplastic agents using 2009-2012 quarterly claims data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. Yearly market shares by prescription volume and costs for targeted therapies among total antineoplastic agents by region were estimated. We used multivariate regression model and ANOVA to examine variations in utilization of targeted therapies between geographic regions and used ARIMA models to estimate longitudinal trends. Population-adjusted use and costs of antineoplastic drugs (including targeted therapies) were highest in the southern region of Taiwan and lowest in the outer islands. We found a 4-fold difference in use of antineoplastic drugs and a 49-fold difference in use of targeted therapies between regions if the outer islands were included. There were minimal differences in use of antineoplastic drugs between other regions with about a 2-fold difference in use of targeted therapies. Without considering the outer islands, the market share by prescription volume and costs of targeted therapies increased almost 2-fold (1.84-1.90) and 1.5-fold (1.26-1.61) respectively between 2009 and 2012. Furthermore, region was not significantly associated with use of antineoplastic agents or use of targeted therapies after adjusting for confounders. Region was associated with costs of antineoplastic agents but it was not associated with costs of targeted therapies after confounding adjustments. Use of antineoplastic drugs overall and use of targeted therapies for treatment of cancer varied somewhat between regions in Taiwan; use was notably low in the outer

  1. Nationwide time trends and risk factors for in-hospital falls-related major injuries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jorgensen, T. S. H.; Hansen, A. H.; Sahlberg, M.

    2015-01-01

    BackgroundAccidental falls during hospitalisation have a range of complications and more information is needed to improve prevention. We investigated patterns of in-hospital fall-related major injuries in the period 2000-2012 and the association between chronic conditions and in-hospital fall......-related major injuries. MethodsUsing administrative databases, patients aged 65+ years with in-hospital falls causing fractures or head injuries with need for surgery or intensive observation were identified as cases and were individually matched with five controls. Joinpoint regression was used to examine time...... trends and conditional logistic regression was used to analyse odds ratio (OR) for in-hospital falls-related major injuries according to a range of comorbidities. ResultsFour thousand seven hundred and fifty-four cases were identified from 2000 to 2012 and the most common injury was femur fracture (61...

  2. Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

    OpenAIRE

    Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

    2014-01-01

    In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods ...

  3. Multi-granular trend detection for time-series analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Goethem, A.I.; Staals, F.; Löffler, M.; Dykes, J.; Speckmann, B.

    2017-01-01

    Time series (such as stock prices) and ensembles (such as model runs for weather forecasts) are two important types of one-dimensional time-varying data. Such data is readily available in large quantities but visual analysis of the raw data quickly becomes infeasible, even for moderately sized data

  4. Measuring trends in poverty over time - some robust results for Ireland 1980-87

    OpenAIRE

    Nolan, B; Callan, T

    1989-01-01

    The trend in poverty in Ireland between 1980 and 1987 is analysed, using the 1980 Household Budget Survey and the ESRI 1987 Survey of Income, Distribution, Poverty and Usage of State Services. In addition to the number falling below poverty thresholds, more sophisticated aggregate poverty measures are derived, taking into account the extent to which the poor fall below the poverty line and the distribution of income among the poor. Results for the trend in poverty which are robust over a rang...

  5. Time trends in births and cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horner-Johnson, Willi; Biel, Frances M; Darney, Blair G; Caughey, Aaron B

    2017-07-01

    Although it is likely that childbearing among women with disabilities is increasing, no empirical data have been published on changes over time in the numbers of women with disabilities giving birth. Further, while it is known that women with disabilities are at increased risk of cesarean delivery, temporal trends in cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities have not been examined. To assess time trends in births by any mode and in primary cesarean deliveries among women with physical, sensory, or intellectual/developmental disabilities. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked vital records and hospital discharge data from all deliveries in California, 2000-2010 (n = 4,605,061). We identified women with potential disabilities using ICD-9 codes. We used descriptive statistics and visualizations to examine time patterns. Logistic regression analyses assessed the association between disability and primary cesarean delivery, stratified by year. Among all women giving birth, the proportion with a disability increased from 0.27% in 2000 to 0.80% in 2010. Women with disabilities had significantly elevated odds of primary cesarean delivery in each year, but the magnitude of the odds ratio decreased over time from 2.60 (95% CI = 2.25 = 2.99) in 2000 to 1.66 (95% CI = 1.51-1.81) in 2010. Adequate clinician training is needed to address the perinatal care needs of the increasing numbers of women with disabilities giving birth. Continued efforts to understand cesarean delivery patterns and reasons for cesarean deliveries may help guide further reductions in proportions of cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities relative to women without disabilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Temporal trend of carpal tunnel release surgery: a population-based time series analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naif Fnais

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Carpal tunnel release (CTR is among the most common hand surgeries, although little is known about its pattern. In this study, we aimed to investigate temporal trends, age and gender variation and current practice patterns in CTR surgeries. METHODS: We conducted a population-based time series analysis among over 13 million residents of Ontario, who underwent operative management for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS from April 1, 1992 to March 31, 2010 using administrative claims data. RESULTS: The primary analysis revealed a fairly stable procedure rate of approximately 10 patients per 10,000 population per year receiving CTRs without any significant, consistent temporal trend (p = 0.94. Secondary analyses revealed different trends in procedure rates according to age. The annual procedure rate among those age >75 years increased from 22 per 10,000 population at the beginning of the study period to over 26 patients per 10,000 population (p<0.01 by the end of the study period. CTR surgical procedures were approximately two-fold more common among females relative to males (64.9% vs. 35.1 respectively; p<0.01. Lastly, CTR procedures are increasingly being conducted in the outpatient setting while procedures in the inpatient setting have been declining steadily - the proportion of procedures performed in the outpatient setting increased from 13% to over 30% by 2010 (p<0.01. CONCLUSION: Overall, CTR surgical-procedures are conducted at a rate of approximately 10 patients per 10,000 population annually with significant variation with respect to age and gender. CTR surgical procedures in ambulatory-care facilities may soon outpace procedure rates in the in-hospital setting.

  7. Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

    1999-02-01

    The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

  8. PRIS analyses world trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spiegelberg, R.

    1990-01-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) maintains a computerized data bank which contains general information on nuclear power reactors in member states and Taiwan, China. The power reactor information system (PRIS), contains information on power reactors in operation, under construction, planned and shut down, as well as performance data and operating experience. The IAEA has been collecting such data since 1970. Member states and international organizations can access PRIS on-line, and next year the IAEA plans to offer member states Micro-PRIS, a personal computer version of PRIS. (author)

  9. Working Less and Living Longer: Long-Term Trends in Working Time and Time Budgets

    OpenAIRE

    Ausubel, J.H.; Grubler, A.

    1994-01-01

    Analyses of time series data beginning in the mid-nineteenth century in the industrialized nations, especially in the United Kingdom, show that on average people are working significantly less while living longer. Although the average career length has remained around 40 years, the total lifetime hours worked shrank for an average British worker from 124,000 hours in 1856 to 69,000 in 1981. The fraction of disposable lifetime hours spent working declined from 50% to 20%. The female share of c...

  10. Time trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index in Danish adults with and without COPD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henrik; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Molsted, Stig

    2016-01-01

    Background: Promotion of a healthy lifestyle and non-pharmacological interventions in the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has received great attention in recent decades. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in leisure time physical activity (PA), smoking......, alcohol consumption and body mass index (BMI) from 2000 to 2010 in Danish individuals with and without COPD. Methods: Analyses were based on data provided by The Danish Health and Morbidity's three cross-sectional surveys from 2000, 2005 and 2010. Data compromised level of leisure time PA, smoking......, alcohol consumption, BMI and sociodemographic characteristics. Participants aged 25 years or older with and without COPD were included in the analyses. Results: In multiple logistic regression analyses, odds ratio (OR) of being physically active in the leisure time in 2010 compared to 2000 was 1.70 (95...

  11. Using exogenous variables in testing for monotonic trends in hydrologic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alley, William M.

    1988-01-01

    One approach that has been used in performing a nonparametric test for monotonic trend in a hydrologic time series consists of a two-stage analysis. First, a regression equation is estimated for the variable being tested as a function of an exogenous variable. A nonparametric trend test such as the Kendall test is then performed on the residuals from the equation. By analogy to stagewise regression and through Monte Carlo experiments, it is demonstrated that this approach will tend to underestimate the magnitude of the trend and to result in some loss in power as a result of ignoring the interaction between the exogenous variable and time. An alternative approach, referred to as the adjusted variable Kendall test, is demonstrated to generally have increased statistical power and to provide more reliable estimates of the trend slope. In addition, the utility of including an exogenous variable in a trend test is examined under selected conditions.

  12. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date....... It is common practice to apply the Kaplan-Meier or Aalen-Johansen estimator to the total sample and report either the estimated cumulative incidence curve or just a single point on the curve as a description of the disease risk. METHODS: We argue that, whenever the disease or disorder of interest is influenced...

  13. Empirical analyses on the development trend of non-ferrous metal industry under China’s new normal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, C. X.; Liu, C. X.; Zhang, Q. L.

    2017-08-01

    The CGE model of Yunnan’s macro economy was constructed based on the input-output data of Yunnan in 2012, and the development trend of the non-ferrous metals industry (NMI) under the China’s new normal was simulated. In view of this, according to different expected economic growth, and optimized economic structure, the impact on development of Yunnan NMI was simulated. The results show that the NMI growth rate is expected to decline when the economic growth show a downward trend, but the change of the proportion is relatively small. Moreover, the structure in proportion was adjusted to realize the economic structure optimization, while the proportion of NMI in GDP will decline. In contrast, the biggest influence on the NMI is the change of economic structure. From the statistics of last two years, we can see that NMI is growing, and at the same time, its proportion is declining, which is consistent with the results of simulation. But the adjustment of economic structure will take a long time. It is need to improve the proportion of deep-processing industry, extend the industrial chain, enhance the value chain, so as to be made good use of resource advantage.

  14. Osteoporosis-Related Mortality: Time-Trends and Predictive Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelly Ziadé

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Osteoporosis is one of the leading causes of handicap worldwide and a major contributor to the global burden of diseases. In particular, osteoporosis is associated with excess mortality. We reviewed the impact of osteoporosis on mortality in a population by defining three categories: mortality following hip fractures, mortality following other sites of fractures, and mortality associated with low bone mineral density (BMD. Hip fractures, as well as other fractures at major sites are all associated with excess mortality, except at the forearm site. This excess mortality is higher during the first 3-6 months after the fracture and then declines over time, but remains higher than the mortality of the normal population up to 22 years after the fracture. Low BMD is also associated with high mortality, with hazard ratios of around 1.3 for every decrease in 1 standard deviation of bone density at 5 years, independently of fractures, reflecting a more fragile population. Finally predictors of mortality were identified and categorised in demographic known factors (age and male gender and in factors reflecting a poor general health status such as the number of comorbidities, low mental status, or level of social dependence. Our results indicate that the management of a patient with osteoporosis should include a multivariate approach that could be based on predictive models in the future.

  15. Methodological issues in analyzing time trends in biologic fertility: protection bias

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Key, Jane; Best, Nicky; Joffe, Michael

    2009-01-01

    One method of assessing biologic fertility is to measure time to pregnancy (TTP). Accidental pregnancies do not generate a valid TTP value and lead to nonrandom missing data if couples experiencing accidental pregnancies are more fertile than the general population. If factors affecting the rate...... of fertility trends in Europe over the past 50 years. Couples experiencing accidental pregnancies tended to be more fertile than the general population. However, trends in accidental pregnancy rates were inconsistent across countries and were insufficient to produce substantial bias in fertility trends...... of accidental pregnancies, such as availability of effective contraception and induced abortion, vary over time, then the result may be protection bias in the estimates of fertility time trends. Six European data sets were analyzed to investigate whether evidence of protection bias exists in TTP studies...

  16. Trend and change point analyses of annual precipitation in the Souss-Massa Region in Morocco during 1932-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abahous, H.; Ronchail, J.; Sifeddine, A.; Kenny, L.; Bouchaou, L.

    2017-11-01

    In the context of an arid area such as Souss Massa Region, the availability of time series analysis of observed local data is vital to better characterize the regional rainfall configuration. In this paper, dataset of monthly precipitation collected from different local meteorological stations during 1932-2010, are quality controlled and analyzed to detect trend and change points. The temporal distribution of outliers shows an annual cycle and a decrease of their number since the 1980s. The results of the standard normal homogeneity test, penalized maximal t test, and Mann-Whitney-Pettit test show that 42% of the series are homogeneous. The analysis of annual precipitation in the region of Souss Massa during 1932-2010 shows wet conditions with a maximum between 1963 and 1965 followed by a decrease since 1973. The latter is identified as a statistically significant regional change point in Western High Atlas and Anti Atlas Mountains highlighting a decline in long-term average precipitation.

  17. Time-trends in assisted and unassisted suicides completed with different methods: Swiss National Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steck, Nicole; Zwahlen, Marcel; Egger, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    The number of suicides assisted by right-to-die associations has increased in recent years in Switzerland. The aim of our study was to compare time trends in rates of assisted and unassisted suicide from 1991-2008. The Swiss National Cohort is a longitudinal study of mortality in the Swiss population; based on linkage of census data with mortality records up to 2008. The Federal Statistical Office coded suspected assisted suicides from 1998 onwards; and from 2003 onwards right-to-die associations reported the suicides they assisted. We used Poisson regression to analyse trends in rates of suicide per 100'000 person-years, by gender and age groups (15-34, 35-64, 65-94 years). A total of 7'940'297 individuals and 24'842 suicides were included. In women, rates changed little in the younger age groups but increased in 65-94-year-olds, due to an increase in suicide by poisoning (from 5.1 to 17.2 per 100'000; p suicides by poisoning was also observed in older men (from 8.6 to 18.2; psuicides by poisoning were assisted. In men, suicide rates declined in all age groups, driven by declines in suicide with firearms. Research is needed to gain a better understanding of the reasons for the tripling of assisted suicide rates in older women, and the doubling of rates in older men, of attitudes and vulnerabilities of those choosing assisted suicide, and of access to palliative care. Rates of assisted suicide should be monitored; including data on patient characteristics and underlying comorbidities.

  18. Sampling designs for contaminant temporal trend analyses using sedentary species exemplified by the snails Bellamya aeruginosa and Viviparus viviparus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Ge; Danielsson, Sara; Dahlberg, Anna-Karin; Zhou, Yihui; Qiu, Yanling; Nyberg, Elisabeth; Bignert, Anders

    2017-10-01

    Environmental monitoring typically assumes samples and sampling activities to be representative of the population being studied. Given a limited budget, an appropriate sampling strategy is essential to support detecting temporal trends of contaminants. In the present study, based on real chemical analysis data on polybrominated diphenyl ethers in snails collected from five subsites in Tianmu Lake, computer simulation is performed to evaluate three sampling strategies by the estimation of required sample size, to reach a detection of an annual change of 5% with a statistical power of 80% and 90% with a significant level of 5%. The results showed that sampling from an arbitrarily selected sampling spot is the worst strategy, requiring much more individual analyses to achieve the above mentioned criteria compared with the other two approaches. A fixed sampling site requires the lowest sample size but may not be representative for the intended study object e.g. a lake and is also sensitive to changes of that particular sampling site. In contrast, sampling at multiple sites along the shore each year, and using pooled samples when the cost to collect and prepare individual specimens are much lower than the cost for chemical analysis, would be the most robust and cost efficient strategy in the long run. Using statistical power as criterion, the results demonstrated quantitatively the consequences of various sampling strategies, and could guide users with respect of required sample sizes depending on sampling design for long term monitoring programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Time trends in heavy drinking among middle-aged and older adults in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Christina; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Vinther-Larsen, Mathilde

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Studies have indicated an increasing proportion of heavy drinking among middle-aged and older Danes. Trends in consumption are often extremely sensitive to influence from various components of the time trends but only few have explored the age, period and cohort-related influences...... that the proportion of heavy drinking women increases in younger birth cohorts. This trend is not observed for men as their drinking pattern mainly increase slightly by calendar year. CONCLUSIONS: Our Danish observations for older aged individuals correspond to the social and cultural changes in the 1960s and 1970s...

  20. Child and adolescent mental health care in Dutch general practice: time trend analyses.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwaanswijk, M.; Dijk, C.E. van; Verheij, R.A.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Because most children and adolescents visit their general practitioner (GP) regularly, general practice is a useful setting in which child and adolescent mental health problems can be identified, treated or referred to specialised care. Measures to strengthen Dutch primary mental health

  1. Tuberculosis in Mexico and the USA, Comparison of Trends Over Time 1990-2010

    OpenAIRE

    Hern?ndez-Gardu?o, Eduardo; Mendoza-Dami?n, Fabiola; Gardu?o-Alan?s, Adriana; Ay?n-Garibaldo, Salvador

    2015-01-01

    Background The aim was to compare tuberculosis trends in Mexico and United States and to evaluate Mexican diagnostic methods and contact investigation. Methods Retrospective comparative study of tuberculosis cases and incidence rates between both countries (1990-2010). Diagnostic methods and contact investigations were also evaluated for Mexico. Estimates were obtained from official websites. Results In Mexico, no clear trend was found over time for cases. Pulmonary (PTB) and all forms of tub...

  2. Canadian population trends in leisure-time physical activity levels, 1981-1998.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce, Marny J; Katzmarzyk, Peter T

    2002-12-01

    Age, sex, geographic and temporal trends in leisure-time physical activity levels were examined using data from five national surveys conducted between 1981 and 1998. Physical activity energy expenditure (AEE) was higher among men compared to women, and in younger versus older adults. AEE increased from Eastern to Western Canada, with a significant temporal trend of increasing AEE. The prevalence of physical inactivity (expending importance of population-level physical activity surveillance and interventions.

  3. River flood seasonality in the Northeast United States and trends in annual timing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    The New England and Mid-Atlantic regions of the Northeast United States have experienced climate-associated increases in both the magnitude and frequency of floods. However, a detailed understanding of flood seasonality across these regions, and how flood seasonality may have changed over the instrumental record, has not been established. The annual timing of river floods reflects the flood-generating mechanisms operating in a basin and many aquatic and riparian organisms are adapted to flood seasonality, as are human uses of river channels and floodplains. Changes in flood seasonality may indicate changes in flood-generating mechanisms, and their interactions, with important implications for habitats, floodplain infrastructure, and human communities. For example, changes in spring or fall flood timing may negatively or positively affect a vulnerable life stage for a migratory fish (e.g., egg setting) depending on whether floods occur more frequently before or after the life history event. In this study I apply an objective, probabilistic method for identifying flood seasons at a monthly resolution for 90 climate-sensitive watersheds in New England and the Mid-Atlantic (Hydrologic Unit Codes 01 and 02). Historical trends in flood timing during the year are also investigated. The analyses are based on partial duration flood series that are an average of 85 years long. The seasonality of flooding in these regions, and any historical changes, are considered in the context of other ongoing or expected phenological changes in the Northeast U.S. environment that affect flood generation—e.g., the timing of leaf-off/leaf-out for deciduous plants. How these factors interact will affect whether and how flood magnitudes and frequencies change in the future and associated impacts.

  4. Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

    2014-05-01

    In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods that can analyze multidimensional time series. One important attribute of this method is that it is not dependent on any statistical assumption and does not need local stationarity in the time series. In this paper, it is shown how the FEM-clustering method can be used to locate change points in the trend of temperature time series from in situ observations. This method is applied to the temperature time series of North Carolina (NC) and the results represent region-specific climate variability despite higher frequency harmonics in climatic time series. Next, we investigated the relationship between the climatic indices with the clusters/trends detected based on this clustering method. It appears that the natural variability of climate change in NC during 1950-2009 can be explained mostly by AMO and solar activity.

  5. Global Precipitation Analyses at Time Scales of Monthly to 3-Hourly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the Goodyear period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENRON variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 degree latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is described. Finally, a TRMM-based Based analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous OR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, Baehr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January Represent). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg. N -50 deg. S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.

  6. 2014 Global Energy Trends: a year full of surprises. Based on its 2014 data for G20 countries, Enerdata analyses the trends in the world energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    According to the 2014 Global Energy Trends publication, Enerdata points out 2014 as a remarkable year with a near stagnation in energy demand and CO_2 emissions despite economic growth. The G20's 2014 Key Energy figures: +3.5% Economic Growth; +0.3% (10.8 Gtep) Energy consumption stagnation; -0.2% (26 GtCO_2) CO_2 emissions stabilizations. The main trends derived from the publication are: - Historical stagnation in energy consumption; - Stabilisation in CO_2 emissions; - Global energy consumption stabilisation is reflected everywhere: - 0 growth for gas, - Fall in coal consumption, - Slight increase in electricity consumption. The Global Energy Trends Analysis also provides additional graphs on such topics as: Coal: most consumed energy source in G20 countries; Oil: 50% fall in international prices; Oil: demand continues to slightly increase; Gas: high impact of climate on gas consumption. (authors)

  7. Extreme Drought-induced Trend Changes in MODIS EVI Time Series in Yunnan, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Kaicheng; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang

    2014-01-01

    Extreme climatic events triggered by global climate change are expected to increase significantly hence research into vegetation response is crucial to evaluate environmental risk. Yunnan province, locating in southwest China, experienced an extreme drought event (from autumn of 2009 to spring of 2010), with the lowest percentage rainfall anomaly and the longest non-rain days in the past 50 years. This study aimed to explore the characteristics and differences in the response to drought of four land cover types in Yunnan province, including forest, grassland, shrub, and cropland during the period 2001-2011. We used remote sensing data, MODIS-derived EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) to study the vegetation responses to this extreme drought event. The EVI time series were decomposed into trend, seasonal and remainder components using BFAST (Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend) which accounts for seasonality and enables the detection of trend changes within the time series. The preliminary results showed that: (1) BFAST proved to be capable of detecting drought-induced trend changes in EVI time series. (2) Changes in the trend component over time consisted of both gradual and abrupt changes. (3) Different spatial patterns were found for abrupt and gradual changes. (4) Cropland exhibited an abrupt change, due to its sensitivity to severe drought, while the forest seemed least affected by the extreme drought

  8. Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    or girls. A majority of the panelists agreed that data are sufficient to suggest a trend toward an earlier breast development onset and menarche in girls but not for other female pubertal markers. A minority of panelists concluded that the current data on girls' puberty timing for any marker...... are insufficient. Almost all panelists concluded, on the basis of few studies and reliability issues of some male puberty markers, that current data for boys are insufficient to evaluate secular trends in male pubertal development. The panel agreed that altered puberty timing should be considered an adverse effect......Whether children, especially girls, are entering and progressing through puberty earlier today than in the mid-1900s has been debated. Secular trend analysis, based on available data, is limited by data comparability among studies in different populations, in different periods of time, and using...

  9. Assessment of land degradation using time series trend analysis of vegetation indictors in Otindag Sandy land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, H Y; Li, Z Y; Gao, Z H; Wu, J J; Sun, B; Li, C L

    2014-01-01

    Land condition assessment is a basic prerequisite for finding the degradation of a territory, which might lead to desertification under climatic and human pressures. The temporal change in vegetation productivity is a key indicator of land degradation. In this paper, taking the Otindag Sandy Land as a case, the mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI a ), net primary production (NPP) and vegetation rain use efficiency (RUE) dynamic trends during 2001–2010 were analysed. The Mann-Kendall test and the Correlation Analysis method were used and their sensitivities to land degradation were evaluated. The results showed that the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE) showed a downward trend with the two methods in the past 10 years and the land was degraded. For the analysis of the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE), it indicated a decreasing trend in 62.57%, 74.16% and 88.56% of the study area according to the Mann-Kendall test and in 57.85%, 68.38% and 85.29% according to the correlation analysis method. However, the change trends were not significant, the significant trends at the 95% confidence level only accounted for a small proportion. Analysis of NDVI a , NPP and RUE series showed a significant decreasing trend in 9.21%, 4.81% and 6.51% with the Mann-Kendall test. The NPP change trends showed obvious positive link with the precipitation in the study area. While the effect of the inter-annual variation of the precipitation for RUE was small, the vegetation RUE can provide valuable insights into the status of land condition and had best sensitivity to land degradation

  10. Time trends of perfluorinated compounds from the sediment core of Tokyo Bay, Japan (1950s-2004)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zushi, Yasuyuki; Tamada, Masafumi; Kanai, Yutaka; Masunaga, Shigeki

    2010-01-01

    Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) were detected in sediment core samples collected in Tokyo Bay to reveal their time trends. The core sample deposited during 1950s-2004 was divided into two- to three-year intervals and the concentrations of 24 types of PFCs were determined. Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) decreased gradually from the early 1990s and its precursor decreased rapidly in the late 1990s, whereas perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) increased rapidly. The observed trends were regarded as a reflection of the shift from perfluorooctyl sulfonyl fluoride (PFOSF)-based products to telomer-based products after the phaseout of PFOSF-based products in 2001. The branched isomers of perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA) and perfluorotridecanoic acid (PFTrDA) were detected in the sample with its ratio of linear-isomer/branched-isomer concentrations decreasing. In this study, we revealed that the sediment core can serve as a tool for reconstructing the past pollution trend of PFCs and can provide interesting evidence concerning their environmental dynamics and time trend. - This study reports the time trends of the concentrations of 24 species of PFCs, including FTCA, FTUCA and FOSAA, in a sediment core of Tokyo Bay, Japan.

  11. Econophysics — complex correlations and trend switchings in financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preis, T.

    2011-03-01

    This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.

  12. Hydrologic Response to Climate Change: Missing Precipitation Data Matters for Computed Timing Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, B.

    2016-12-01

    This work demonstrates the derivation of climate timing statistics and applying them to determine resulting hydroclimate impacts. Long-term daily precipitation observations from 50 California stations were used to compute climate trends of precipitation event Intensity, event Duration and Pause between events. Each precipitation event trend was then applied as input to a PRMS hydrology model which showed hydrology changes to recharge, baseflow, streamflow, etc. An important concern was precipitation uncertainty induced by missing observation values and causing errors in quantification of precipitation trends. Many standard statistical techniques such as ARIMA and simple endogenous or even exogenous imputation were applied but failed to help resolve these uncertainties. What helped resolve these uncertainties was use of multiple imputation techniques. This involved fitting of Weibull probability distributions to multiple imputed values for the three precipitation trends.Permutation resampling techniques using Monte Carlo processing were then applied to the multiple imputation values to derive significance p-values for each trend. Significance at the 95% level for Intensity was found for 11 of the 50 stations, Duration from 16 of the 50, and Pause from 19, of which 12 were 99% significant. The significance weighted trends for California are Intensity -4.61% per decade, Duration +3.49% per decade, and Pause +3.58% per decade. Two California basins with PRMS hydrologic models were studied: Feather River in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and the central coast Soquel-Aptos. Each local trend was changed without changing the other trends or the total precipitation. Feather River Basin's critical supply to Lake Oroville and the State Water Project benefited from a total streamflow increase of 1.5%. The Soquel-Aptos Basin water supply was impacted by a total groundwater recharge decrease of -7.5% and streamflow decrease of -3.2%.

  13. Performing dynamic time history analyses by extension of the response spectrum method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hulbert, G.M.

    1983-01-01

    A method is presented to calculate the dynamic time history response of finite-element models using results from response spectrum analyses. The proposed modified time history method does not represent a new mathamatical approach to dynamic analysis but suggests a more efficient ordering of the analytical equations and procedures. The modified time history method is considerably faster and less expensive to use than normal time hisory methods. This paper presents the theory and implementation of the modified time history approach along with comparisons of the modified and normal time history methods for a prototypic seismic piping design problem

  14. Time trend of smoking scenes in Iranian movies during the past three decades (1982-2011): a historical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heydari, Gholamreza; Ebn Ahmady, Arezoo; Lando, Harry A; Chamyani, Fahimeh; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza; Shadmehr, Mohammad B; Fadaizadeh, Lida; Chaibakhsh, Samira

    2016-09-01

    Evidence from the USA and elsewhere has linked smoking depictions in movies with youth smoking initiation. Prior research has not focused on depictions in films produced in the Middle East, however. We reviewed the 10 most commercially successful Iranian films released each year over three decades (1982-2011) to determine trends in depictions of tobacco use over time. Each movie was reviewed in its entirety, and depictions of smoking were recorded and classified as direct (characters holding or using tobacco products) and indirect (tobacco products appearing in the frame, but not being used). Time trends in average duration of direct, indirect and total smoking depictions were analysed using linear regression and Cohen's κ coefficient. The mean duration of tobacco depictions in the most commercially successful Iranian films fluctuated yearly over the 3 decades, but with an overall significant upward trend (pfilm industry to minimise this important source of influence on tobacco initiation in young people. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  15. Reference population for international comparisons and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery proportions in three countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morken, N.H.; Vogel, I.; Kallen, K.

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: International comparison and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery rates is complex. New techniques that could facilitate interpretation of such rates are needed. METHODS: We studied all live births and stillbirths (>or= 28 weeks gestation) registered in the medical birth...

  16. Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    different methods. As a result, conclusions from data comparisons have not been consistent. An expert panel was asked to evaluate the weight of evidence for whether the data, collected from 1940 to 1994, are sufficient to suggest or establish a secular trend in the timing of puberty markers in US boys...

  17. Television Viewing at Home: Age Trends in Visual Attention and Time with TV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Daniel R.; And Others

    1986-01-01

    Decribes age trends in television viewing time and visual attention of children and adults videotaped in their homes for 10-day periods. Shows that the increase in visual attention to television during the preschool years is consistent with the theory that television program comprehensibility is a major determinant of attention in young children.…

  18. Trends in Leisure Time Physical Activity among Young People in Finland, 1977-2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laakso, Lauri; Telama, Risto; Nupponen, Heimo; Rimpela, Arja; Pere, Lasse

    2008-01-01

    The decline in physical activity among young people has been discussed in the media during recent decades, although the scientific evidence for this has been scarce. The aim of this study was to investigate trends over 30 years in leisure time physical activity of Finnish boys and girls aged 12, 14, 16 and 18 years from 1977 to 2007. The data were…

  19. Time trends in mental health care utilization in a Dutch area, 1976-1990

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oldehinkel, AJ

    This paper concerns time trends in mental health care utilization in a Dutch area from 1976 to 1990. In general, there was an increase in the use of psychiatric services during the study period, both in terms of the number of new patients (per 1000 population) and in terms of the amount of care

  20. Time trends of perfluorinated alkyl acids in serum from Danish pregnant women 2008-2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard-Olesen, Christian; Bach, Cathrine C; Long, Manhai

    2016-01-01

    for sixteen PFAAs using solid phase extraction and liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). We investigated the time trends for seven PFAAs, which were detected in more than 50% of the samples: perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), perfluoroheptane sulfonate (PFHpS), perfluorooctane sulfonate...

  1. Preterm birth time trends in Europe: A study of 19 countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeitlin, J.; Szamotulska, K.; Drewniak, N.; Mohangoo, A.D.; Chalmers, J.; Sakkeus, L.; Irgens, L.; Gatt, M.; Gissler, M.; Blondel, B.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To investigate time trends in preterm birth in Europe by multiplicity, gestational age, and onset of delivery. Design Analysis of aggregate data from routine sources. Setting Nineteen European countries. Population Live births in 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008. Methods Annual risk ratios of

  2. Analysis of monotonic greening and browning trends from global NDVI time-series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, de R.; Bruin, de S.; Wit, de A.J.W.; Schaepman, M.E.; Dent, D.L.

    2011-01-01

    Remotely sensed vegetation indices are widely used to detect greening and browning trends; especially the global coverage of time-series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data which are available from 1981. Seasonality and serial auto-correlation in the data have previously been dealt

  3. Gender Differences Time Trends for Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components among Tehranian Children and Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Barzin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims. To investigate the trend of metabolic syndrome and its components in Tehran children and adolescents during a median followup of 6.6 years. Methods. Data from 1999–2001 (phase I, 2002–2005 (phase II, and 2006–2008 (phase III of the Tehran, Lipid and Glucose Study were analyzed (=5439; age 6–18 years for the trend of metabolic syndrome (MetS and its components. General estimation equation (GEE models were used to analyze this correlated data. Results. The crude prevalence of MetS for boys at baseline was 13.2%, which increased to 16.4% in the third phase. In girls, the prevalence of Mets decreased from 11.8% at baseline to 6% during followup. The odd ratios (OR of obesity over the whole study period were raised in both sexes. The OR of abdominal obesity increased significantly in boys, but no change was observed in girls. No significant OR was observed in boys, while OR for MetS was shown to have a decreasing trend in girls during the followup. In the three time points, the ORs of MetS decreased significantly in girls but no significant difference was observed in boys. Conclusion. Inspite of increasing trend for obesity in both sexes, the trend of MetS decreased in girls and was relatively stable in boys, in Tehranian children, and adolescents.

  4. Educational inequalities in obesity among Mexican women: time-trends from 1988 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez Ferrer, Carolina; McMunn, Anne; Rivera Dommarco, Juan A; Brunner, Eric J

    2014-01-01

    Obesity is one of the leading causes of global morbidity and mortality. Trends in educational inequalities in obesity prevalence among Mexican women have not been analysed systematically to date. Data came from four nationally representative surveys (1988, 1999, 2006, and 2012) of a total of 51 220 non-pregnant women aged 20 to 49. Weight and height were measured during home visits. Education level (higher education, high school, secondary, primary or less) was self-reported. We analysed trends in relative and absolute educational inequalities in obesity prevalence separately for urban and rural areas. Nationally, age-standardised obesity prevalence increased from 9.3% to 33.7% over 25 years to 2012. Obesity prevalence was inversely associated with education level in urban areas at all survey waves. In rural areas, obesity prevalence increased markedly but there was no gradient with education level at any survey. The relative index of inequality in urban areas declined over the period (2.87 (95%CI: 1.94, 4.25) in 1988, 1.55 (95%CI: 1.33, 1.80) in 2012, trend pwomen with higher education in the period 1988-2012 compared to 3.23 fold (95%CI: 2.88, 3.63) for urban women with primary or no education. The slope index of inequality increased in urban areas from 1988 to 2012. Over 0.5 M cases would be avoided if the obesity prevalence of women with primary or less education was the same as for women with higher education. The expected inverse association between education and obesity was observed in urban areas of Mexico. The declining trend in relative educational inequalities in obesity was due to a greater increase in obesity prevalence among higher educated women. In rural areas there was no social gradient in the association between education level and obesity across the four surveys.

  5. State-level gonorrhea rates and expedited partner therapy laws: insights from time series analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owusu-Edusei, K; Cramer, R; Chesson, H W; Gift, T L; Leichliter, J S

    2017-06-01

    In this study, we examined state-level monthly gonorrhea morbidity and assessed the potential impact of existing expedited partner therapy (EPT) laws in relation to the time that the laws were enacted. Longitudinal study. We obtained state-level monthly gonorrhea morbidity (number of cases/100,000 for males, females and total) from the national surveillance data. We used visual examination (of morbidity trends) and an autoregressive time series model in a panel format with intervention (interrupted time series) analysis to assess the impact of state EPT laws based on the months in which the laws were enacted. For over 84% of the states with EPT laws, the monthly morbidity trends did not show any noticeable decreases on or after the laws were enacted. Although we found statistically significant decreases in gonorrhea morbidity within four of the states with EPT laws (Alaska, Illinois, Minnesota, and Vermont), there were no significant decreases when the decreases in the four states were compared contemporaneously with the decreases in states that do not have the laws. We found no impact (decrease in gonorrhea morbidity) attributable exclusively to the EPT law(s). However, these results do not imply that the EPT laws themselves were not effective (or failed to reduce gonorrhea morbidity), because the effectiveness of the EPT law is dependent on necessary intermediate events/outcomes, including sexually transmitted infection service providers' awareness and practice, as well as acceptance by patients and their partners. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  6. Out-of-pocket expenditures for primary health care in Tajikistan: a time-trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Joëlle; Wyss, Kaspar; Gulyamova, Zulfiya M; Sharipov, Soleh

    2013-03-18

    Aligned with the international call for universal coverage of affordable and quality health care, the government of Tajikistan is undertaking reforms of its health system aiming amongst others at reducing the out-of-pocket expenditures (OPE) of patients seeking care. Household surveys were conducted in 2005, 2007, 2008 and 2011 to explore the scale and determinants of OPE of users in four district of Tajikistan, where health care is legally free of charge at the primary level. Using the data from four cross-sectional household surveys conducted between 2005 and 2011, time trends in OPE for consultation fees, drugs and transport costs of adult users of family medicine services were analysed. To investigate differences along the economic status, an asset index was constructed using principal component analysis. Adjusted for inflation, OPE for primary care have substantially increased in the period 2005 to 2011. While the proportion of patients reporting the payment of informal consultation fees to providers and their amount were constant over time, the proportion of patients reporting expenditures for drugs has increased, and the median amounts have doubled from 5.3 US$ to 10.7 US$. Thus, the expenditures on medicine represent the biggest financial burden for patients accessing a primary care facility. Regression models showed that in 2011 patients from the most remote district with spread-out villages reported significant higher expenditures on medicine. Besides the steady increase in the median amount for OPE, the proportion of patients reporting making an informal payment to their care provider showed great variations across district of residence (between 20% and 73%) and economic status (between 33% among the 'worst-off' group and 68% among the 'better-off' group). In a context of limited governmental funds allocated to health and financing reforms aiming to improve financial access to primary care, the present paper indicates that in Tajikistan OPE - especially

  7. Outdoor recreation activity trends by volume segments: U.S. and Northeast market analyses, 1982-1989

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodney B. Warnick

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this review was to examine volume segmentation within three selected outdoor recreational activities -- swimming, hunting and downhill skiing over an eight-year period, from 1982 through 1989 at the national level and within the Northeast Region of the U.S.; and to determine if trend patterns existed within any of these activities when the market size...

  8. Averaging Gone Wrong: Using Time-Aware Analyses to Better Understand Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Barbosa, Samuel; Cosley, Dan; Sharma, Amit; Cesar-Jr, Roberto M.

    2016-01-01

    Online communities provide a fertile ground for analyzing people's behavior and improving our understanding of social processes. Because both people and communities change over time, we argue that analyses of these communities that take time into account will lead to deeper and more accurate results. Using Reddit as an example, we study the evolution of users based on comment and submission data from 2007 to 2014. Even using one of the simplest temporal differences between users---yearly coho...

  9. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jae-Won; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Kim, Ho; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis; Mueller, Ivo

    2016-01-01

    This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

  10. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Won Park

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021, and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

  11. Trends in U.S. adult chronic disability rates over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kurtz, Stephen G; Rao, Sowmya R

    2014-10-01

    Trends in the patterns and prevalence of chronic disability among U.S. residents carry important implications for public health and public policies across multiple societal sectors. To examine trends in U.S. adult population rates of chronic disability from 1998 to 2011 using 7 different disability measures and examining the implications of trends in population age, race and ethnicity, and body mass index (BMI). We used National Health Interview Survey data on civilian, non-institutionalized U.S. residents ages ≥ 18 from selected years between 1998 and 2011. We used self-reported information on functional impairments, activity/participation limitations, and expected duration to create 7 chronic disability measures. We used direct standardization to account for changes in age, race/ethnicity, and BMI distributions over time. Multivariable logistic regression models identified associations of disability with sociodemographic characteristics. Without adjustment, population rates of all 7 disabilities increased significantly (p disability types continued to show increased rates over time (p disability. If these trends continue, the numbers and proportions of U.S. residents with various disabilities will continue rising in coming years. In particular, the prevalence of movement difficulties and work limitations will increase. Furthermore, disability will remain strongly associated with low levels of education, employment, and income. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis

    2016-01-01

    Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions. PMID:26987606

  13. Onabotulinum toxin A dosage trends over time for adductor spasmodic dysphonia: A 15-year experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Christopher G; Novakovic, Daniel; Mor, Niv; Blitzer, Andrew

    2016-03-01

    Although onabotulinum neurotoxin A (BoNTA) has been used for over three decades for the treatment of adductor spasmodic dysphonia, no study has been performed to look at the trend of BoNTA dosages across time. The goal of this study is to evaluate the dosage trends to determine if the dosage necessary for voice improvement in patients increases over time. Charts were reviewed for patients with 15 years or more of experience. Linear regression analysis was performed to determine correlation coefficients and trends. Fifty-five patients receiving BoNTA injections by the senior author (a.b.) for over 15 years were evaluated. Thirty-nine patients (82% female) met inclusion criteria. Patients received injections over an average of 18.6 years ± 1.36 years, with the longest follow-up of 21.5 years. Of 39 patients, 16 (41%) had a negative correlation coefficient (Pearson's r) suggesting a decrease over time, whereas 23 (59%) had a positive correlation coefficient suggesting an increase over time. The mean correlation coefficient was 0.139 ± 0.534 and P  0.05 in 20 patients. R(2) for all patients were less than 0.75. Onabotulinum neurotoxin A injection dosage trends vary depending on the individual over time. Overall, the dose range appears to be stable in the majority of patients, suggesting that tolerance does not play a significant part in dose variation over time. 4. Laryngoscope, 126:678-681, 2016. © 2015 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  14. Did Medicare Part D Affect National Trends in Health Outcomes or Hospitalizations? A Time-Series Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briesacher, Becky A; Madden, Jeanne M; Zhang, Fang; Fouayzi, Hassan; Ross-Degnan, Dennis; Gurwitz, Jerry H; Soumerai, Stephen B

    2015-06-16

    Medicare Part D increased economic access to medications, but its effect on population-level health outcomes and use of other medical services remains unclear. To examine changes in health outcomes and medical services in the Medicare population after implementation of Part D. Population-level longitudinal time-series analysis with generalized linear models. Community. Nationally representative sample of Medicare beneficiaries (n = 56,293 [unweighted and unique]) from 2000 to 2010. Changes in self-reported health status, limitations in activities of daily living (ADLs) (ADLs and instrumental ADLs), emergency department visits and hospital admissions (prevalence, counts, and spending), and mortality. Medicare claims data were used for confirmatory analyses. Five years after Part D implementation, no clinically or statistically significant reductions in the prevalence of fair or poor health status or limitations in ADLs or instrumental ADLs, relative to historical trends, were detected. Compared with trends before Part D, no changes in emergency department visits, hospital admissions or days, inpatient costs, or mortality after Part D were seen. Confirmatory analyses were consistent. Only total population-level outcomes were studied. Self-reported measures may lack sensitivity. Five years after implementation, and contrary to previous reports, no evidence was found of Part D's effect on a range of population-level health indicators among Medicare enrollees. Further, there was no clear evidence of gains in medical care efficiencies.

  15. Hybrid model for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and salendar variation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhartono; Rahayu, S. P.; Prastyo, D. D.; Wijayanti, D. G. P.; Juliyanto

    2017-09-01

    Most of the monthly time series data in economics and business in Indonesia and other Moslem countries not only contain trend and seasonal, but also affected by two types of calendar variation effects, i.e. the effect of the number of working days or trading and holiday effects. The purpose of this research is to develop a hybrid model or a combination of several forecasting models to predict time series that contain trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. This hybrid model is a combination of classical models (namely time series regression and ARIMA model) and/or modern methods (artificial intelligence method, i.e. Artificial Neural Networks). A simulation study was used to show that the proposed procedure for building the hybrid model could work well for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. Furthermore, the proposed hybrid model is applied for forecasting real data, i.e. monthly data about inflow and outflow of currency at Bank Indonesia. The results show that the hybrid model tend to provide more accurate forecasts than individual forecasting models. Moreover, this result is also in line with the third results of the M3 competition, i.e. the hybrid model on average provides a more accurate forecast than the individual model.

  16. Time series analyses of hydrological parameter variations and their correlations at a coastal area in Busan, South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Sang Yong; Senapathi, Venkatramanan; Sekar, Selvam; Kim, Tae Hyung

    2018-02-01

    Monitoring and time-series analysis of the hydrological parameters electrical conductivity (EC), water pressure, precipitation and tide were carried out, to understand the characteristics of the parameter variations and their correlations at a coastal area in Busan, South Korea. The monitoring data were collected at a sharp interface between freshwater and saline water at the depth of 25 m below ground. Two well-logging profiles showed that seawater intrusion has largely expanded (progressed inland), and has greatly affected the groundwater quality in a coastal aquifer of tuffaceous sedimentary rock over a 9-year period. According to the time series analyses, the periodograms of the hydrological parameters present very similar trends to the power spectral densities (PSD) of the hydrological parameters. Autocorrelation functions (ACF) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF) of the hydrological parameters were produced to evaluate their self-correlations. The ACFs of all hydrologic parameters showed very good correlation over the entire time lag, but the PACF revealed that the correlations were good only at time lag 1. Crosscorrelation functions (CCF) were used to evaluate the correlations between the hydrological parameters and the characteristics of seawater intrusion in the coastal aquifer system. The CCFs showed that EC had a close relationship with water pressure and precipitation rather than tide. The CCFs of water pressure with tide and precipitation were in inverse proportion, and the CCF of water pressure with precipitation was larger than that with tide.

  17. Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, Peter; Larsen, Christina Viskum Lytken

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the time trend by region of suicides...... and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. DESIGN: Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970-2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993-1994 and 2005-2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. RESULTS: Suicide rates were higher among men than...... women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital...

  18. Depth-time interpolation of feature trends extracted from mobile microelectrode data with kernel functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Stephen; Hargreaves, Eric L; Baltuch, Gordon H; Jaggi, Jurg L; Danish, Shabbar F

    2012-01-01

    Microelectrode recording (MER) is necessary for precision localization of target structures such as the subthalamic nucleus during deep brain stimulation (DBS) surgery. Attempts to automate this process have produced quantitative temporal trends (feature activity vs. time) extracted from mobile MER data. Our goal was to evaluate computational methods of generating spatial profiles (feature activity vs. depth) from temporal trends that would decouple automated MER localization from the clinical procedure and enhance functional localization in DBS surgery. We evaluated two methods of interpolation (standard vs. kernel) that generated spatial profiles from temporal trends. We compared interpolated spatial profiles to true spatial profiles that were calculated with depth windows, using correlation coefficient analysis. Excellent approximation of true spatial profiles is achieved by interpolation. Kernel-interpolated spatial profiles produced superior correlation coefficient values at optimal kernel widths (r = 0.932-0.940) compared to standard interpolation (r = 0.891). The choice of kernel function and kernel width resulted in trade-offs in smoothing and resolution. Interpolation of feature activity to create spatial profiles from temporal trends is accurate and can standardize and facilitate MER functional localization of subcortical structures. The methods are computationally efficient, enhancing localization without imposing additional constraints on the MER clinical procedure during DBS surgery. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  19. Fall prevalence, time trend and its related risk factors among elderly people in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Hong; Ouyang, Peng

    2017-11-01

    To study the fall prevalence, time trends and related risk factors among elderly people in the Chinese mainland from 2011 to 2013. Our data were from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2011 and 2013. The population sample included people aged 60 years and over. Whether the person had experienced fall accident in the last two years was used to measure fall incidence. The time trend and age groups were investigated through the chi-square test. The related risk factors were examined based on the binary logistic regression model. In 2011, 19.64% (95% CI, 18.66%, 20.67%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents and in 2013, 19.28% (95% CI, 18.46%, 20.13%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents. However, no significant difference was seen in the fall prevalence between 2011 and 2013. The fall prevalence among elderly people aged 66-70 declined significantly while that among people aged over 80 showed an increasing time trend. The fall prevalence was affected significantly by factors including age (66-70), gender, marital status, self-rated health, quantity of chronic diseases, quantity of disability items, activities of daily living and physical functioning. It is revealed the fall prevalence showed no increment from 2011 to 2013 but at a high level. More efforts should be made to reduce the fall prevalence, and special attention should be paid to the elderly people aged over 80 and older. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. The time-dependent simplified P2 equations: Asymptotic analyses and numerical experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, U.; Miller, W.F. Jr.

    1998-01-01

    Using an asymptotic expansion, the authors found that the modified time-dependent simplified P 2 (SP 2 ) equations are robust, high-order, asymptotic approximations to the time-dependent transport equation in a physical regime in which the conventional time-dependent diffusion equation is the leading-order approximation. Using diffusion limit analysis, they also asymptotically compared three competitive time-dependent equations (the telegrapher's equation, the time-dependent SP 2 equations, and the time-dependent simplified even-parity equation). As a result, they found that the time-dependent SP 2 equations contain higher-order asymptotic approximations to the time-dependent transport equation than the other competitive equations. The numerical results confirm that, in the vast majority of cases, the time-dependent SP 2 solutions are significantly more accurate than the time-dependent diffusion and the telegrapher's solutions. They have also shown that the time-dependent SP 2 equations have excellent characteristics such as rotational invariance (which means no ray effect), good diffusion limit behavior, guaranteed positivity in diffusive regimes, and significant accuracy, even in deep-penetration problems. Through computer-running-time tests, they have shown that the time-dependent SP 2 equations can be solved with significantly less computational effort than the conventionally used, time-dependent S N equations (for N > 2) and almost as fast as the time-dependent diffusion equation. From all these results, they conclude that the time-dependent SP 2 equations should be considered as an important competitor for an improved approximately transport equations solver. Such computationally efficient time-dependent transport models are important for problems requiring enhanced computational efficiency, such as neutronics/fluid-dynamics coupled problems that arise in the analyses of hypothetical nuclear reactor accidents

  1. Time-Trend in Epidemiological and Pathological Features of Schistosoma-Associated Bladder Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ZAGHLOUL, M.S.; EL-BARADIE, M.; NAZMY, M.; NOUH, A.; MONEER, M.; YOUNIS, A.

    2008-01-01

    To investigate the different emerging trends in the features of bladder cancer along 17 years. Patients and Methods: During a 17-year period (1988- 2004), 5071 epithelial bladder cancer patients underwent radical cystectomy at the National Cancer Institute (NCI), Cairo University, Egypt. The time was divided into 3 time periods to detect changes of the clinico pathologic features of patients in these periods. Results: There was a significant progressive increase in the patients' age with time and decrease in squamous/ transitional ratio, with transient increase in male predominance during the 2nd time period. Moreover, there was a decrease in the well differentiated (grade 1) tumor (p<0.001) and an increase in the frequency of pelvic nodal involvement (p<0.001). Transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) patients were significantly older than those with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (p<0.001). Progressive increase of age with time was evident in TCC, SCC and adenocarcinoma patients. Male to female ratio changed significantly in TCC and SCC. Conclusion: Time trend was confirmed with relative decrease in frequency of SCC and increase of TCC with changes in their pathological details. The differences between their characteristics and that of the Western countries are decreasing.

  2. Time-Series Analyses of Transcriptomes and Proteomes Reveal Molecular Networks Underlying Oil Accumulation in Canola.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Huafang; Cui, Yixin; Ding, Yijuan; Mei, Jiaqin; Dong, Hongli; Zhang, Wenxin; Wu, Shiqi; Liang, Ying; Zhang, Chunyu; Li, Jiana; Xiong, Qing; Qian, Wei

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the regulation of lipid metabolism is vital for genetic engineering of canola ( Brassica napus L.) to increase oil yield or modify oil composition. We conducted time-series analyses of transcriptomes and proteomes to uncover the molecular networks associated with oil accumulation and dynamic changes in these networks in canola. The expression levels of genes and proteins were measured at 2, 4, 6, and 8 weeks after pollination (WAP). Our results show that the biosynthesis of fatty acids is a dominant cellular process from 2 to 6 WAP, while the degradation mainly happens after 6 WAP. We found that genes in almost every node of fatty acid synthesis pathway were significantly up-regulated during oil accumulation. Moreover, significant expression changes of two genes, acetyl-CoA carboxylase and acyl-ACP desaturase, were detected on both transcriptomic and proteomic levels. We confirmed the temporal expression patterns revealed by the transcriptomic analyses using quantitative real-time PCR experiments. The gene set association analysis show that the biosynthesis of fatty acids and unsaturated fatty acids are the most significant biological processes from 2-4 WAP and 4-6 WAP, respectively, which is consistent with the results of time-series analyses. These results not only provide insight into the mechanisms underlying lipid metabolism, but also reveal novel candidate genes that are worth further investigation for their values in the genetic engineering of canola.

  3. Seismic response time history analyses for KALIMER building with a horizontal and vertical seismic isolation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, J. H.; Yoo, B.; Koo, K. H. [KAERI, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2001-05-01

    The seismic response time history analyses for the lumped mass models of KALIMER reactor building with a horizontal and vertical seismic isolation are performed for Artificial Time History and Kobe earthquake. The vertical amplification by the horizontal isolation is reduced by a vertical isolation for both earthquakes. The 3% viscous damping and the vertical isolation frequency of 1.5Hz gives a reduced vertical response compared to the fixed base condition at reactor support, and the 9% viscous damping to Kobe earthquake is required to get an equivalent vertical response with a fixed base condition.

  4. Seismic response time history analyses for KALIMER building with a horizontal and vertical seismic isolation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, J. H.; Yoo, B.; Koo, K. H.

    2001-01-01

    The seismic response time history analyses for the lumped mass models of KALIMER reactor building with a horizontal and vertical seismic isolation are performed for Artificial Time History and Kobe earthquake. The vertical amplification by the horizontal isolation is reduced by a vertical isolation for both earthquakes. The 3% viscous damping and the vertical isolation frequency of 1.5Hz gives a reduced vertical response compared to the fixed base condition at reactor support, and the 9% viscous damping to Kobe earthquake is required to get an equivalent vertical response with a fixed base condition

  5. Analysis of the development trend of China’s business administration based on time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang Rui

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available On the general direction of the economic system, China is in a crucial period of the establishment of the modern enterprise system and reform of the macroeconomic system, and a lot of high-quality business administration talents are required to make China’s economy be stably developed. This paper carries out time series analysis of the development situation of China’s business administration major: on the whole, the society currently presents an upward trend on the demand for the business administration talents. With the gradually increasing demand for the business administration talents, various colleges and universities also set up the business administration major to train a large number of administration talents, thus leading to an upward trend for the academic focus on business administration.

  6. Educational Inequalities in Obesity among Mexican Women: Time-Trends from 1988 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez Ferrer, Carolina; McMunn, Anne; Rivera Dommarco, Juan A.; Brunner, Eric J.

    2014-01-01

    Background Obesity is one of the leading causes of global morbidity and mortality. Trends in educational inequalities in obesity prevalence among Mexican women have not been analysed systematically to date. Methods Data came from four nationally representative surveys (1988, 1999, 2006, and 2012) of a total of 51 220 non-pregnant women aged 20 to 49. Weight and height were measured during home visits. Education level (higher education, high school, secondary, primary or less) was self-reported. We analysed trends in relative and absolute educational inequalities in obesity prevalence separately for urban and rural areas. Results Nationally, age-standardised obesity prevalence increased from 9.3% to 33.7% over 25 years to 2012. Obesity prevalence was inversely associated with education level in urban areas at all survey waves. In rural areas, obesity prevalence increased markedly but there was no gradient with education level at any survey. The relative index of inequality in urban areas declined over the period (2.87 (95%CI: 1.94, 4.25) in 1988, 1.55 (95%CI: 1.33, 1.80) in 2012, trend pObesity increased 5.92 fold (95%CI: 4.03, 8.70) among urban women with higher education in the period 1988–2012 compared to 3.23 fold (95%CI: 2.88, 3.63) for urban women with primary or no education. The slope index of inequality increased in urban areas from 1988 to 2012. Over 0.5 M cases would be avoided if the obesity prevalence of women with primary or less education was the same as for women with higher education. Conclusions The expected inverse association between education and obesity was observed in urban areas of Mexico. The declining trend in relative educational inequalities in obesity was due to a greater increase in obesity prevalence among higher educated women. In rural areas there was no social gradient in the association between education level and obesity across the four surveys. PMID:24599098

  7. Time-trend of melanoma screening practice by primary care physicians: A meta-regression analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Valachis, Antonis; Mauri, Davide; Karampoiki, Vassiliki; Polyzos, Nikolaos P; Cortinovis, Ivan; Koukourakis, Georgios; Zacharias, Georgios; Xilomenos, Apostolos; Tsappi, Maria; Casazza, Giovanni

    2009-01-01

    Objective To assess whether the proportion of primary care physicians implementing full body skin examination (FBSE) to screen for melanoma changed over time. Methods Meta-regression analyses of available data. Data Sources: MEDLINE, ISI, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Results Fifteen studies surveying 10,336 physicians were included in the analyses. Overall, 15%?82% of them reported to perform FBSE to screen for melanoma. The proportion of physicians using FBSE screening ten...

  8. Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Bjerregaard

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. Objective: To analyze the time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. Design: Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970–2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993–1994 and 2005–2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. Results: Suicide rates were higher among men than women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital, a continued increase to very high rates in remote East and North Greenland and a slow increase in villages relative to towns on the West Coast. Suicidal thoughts followed the regional pattern for completed suicides. Especially for women there was a noticeable increasing trend in the villages. The relative risk for suicide was highest among those who reported suicidal thoughts, but most suicides happened outside this high-risk group. Conclusion: Suicide rates and the prevalence of suicidal thoughts remain high in Greenland but different regional trends point towards an increased marginalization between towns on the central West Coast, villages and East and North Greenland. Different temporal patterns call for different regional strategies of prevention.

  9. Time series analyses of breathing patterns of lung cancer patients using nonlinear dynamical system theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tewatia, D K; Tolakanahalli, R P; Paliwal, B R; Tomé, W A

    2011-04-07

    The underlying requirements for successful implementation of any efficient tumour motion management strategy are regularity and reproducibility of a patient's breathing pattern. The physiological act of breathing is controlled by multiple nonlinear feedback and feed-forward couplings. It would therefore be appropriate to analyse the breathing pattern of lung cancer patients in the light of nonlinear dynamical system theory. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the one-dimensional respiratory time series of lung cancer patients based on nonlinear dynamics and delay coordinate state space embedding. It is very important to select a suitable pair of embedding dimension 'm' and time delay 'τ' when performing a state space reconstruction. Appropriate time delay and embedding dimension were obtained using well-established methods, namely mutual information and the false nearest neighbour method, respectively. Establishing stationarity and determinism in a given scalar time series is a prerequisite to demonstrating that the nonlinear dynamical system that gave rise to the scalar time series exhibits a sensitive dependence on initial conditions, i.e. is chaotic. Hence, once an appropriate state space embedding of the dynamical system has been reconstructed, we show that the time series of the nonlinear dynamical systems under study are both stationary and deterministic in nature. Once both criteria are established, we proceed to calculate the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE), which is an invariant quantity under time delay embedding. The LLE for all 16 patients is positive, which along with stationarity and determinism establishes the fact that the time series of a lung cancer patient's breathing pattern is not random or irregular, but rather it is deterministic in nature albeit chaotic. These results indicate that chaotic characteristics exist in the respiratory waveform and techniques based on state space dynamics should be employed for tumour motion management.

  10. Time series analyses of breathing patterns of lung cancer patients using nonlinear dynamical system theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tewatia, D K; Tolakanahalli, R P; Paliwal, B R; Tome, W A, E-mail: tewatia@wisc.edu [Department of Human Oncology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

    2011-04-07

    The underlying requirements for successful implementation of any efficient tumour motion management strategy are regularity and reproducibility of a patient's breathing pattern. The physiological act of breathing is controlled by multiple nonlinear feedback and feed-forward couplings. It would therefore be appropriate to analyse the breathing pattern of lung cancer patients in the light of nonlinear dynamical system theory. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the one-dimensional respiratory time series of lung cancer patients based on nonlinear dynamics and delay coordinate state space embedding. It is very important to select a suitable pair of embedding dimension 'm' and time delay '{tau}' when performing a state space reconstruction. Appropriate time delay and embedding dimension were obtained using well-established methods, namely mutual information and the false nearest neighbour method, respectively. Establishing stationarity and determinism in a given scalar time series is a prerequisite to demonstrating that the nonlinear dynamical system that gave rise to the scalar time series exhibits a sensitive dependence on initial conditions, i.e. is chaotic. Hence, once an appropriate state space embedding of the dynamical system has been reconstructed, we show that the time series of the nonlinear dynamical systems under study are both stationary and deterministic in nature. Once both criteria are established, we proceed to calculate the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE), which is an invariant quantity under time delay embedding. The LLE for all 16 patients is positive, which along with stationarity and determinism establishes the fact that the time series of a lung cancer patient's breathing pattern is not random or irregular, but rather it is deterministic in nature albeit chaotic. These results indicate that chaotic characteristics exist in the respiratory waveform and techniques based on state space dynamics should be employed

  11. Time series analyses of breathing patterns of lung cancer patients using nonlinear dynamical system theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tewatia, D K; Tolakanahalli, R P; Paliwal, B R; Tome, W A

    2011-01-01

    The underlying requirements for successful implementation of any efficient tumour motion management strategy are regularity and reproducibility of a patient's breathing pattern. The physiological act of breathing is controlled by multiple nonlinear feedback and feed-forward couplings. It would therefore be appropriate to analyse the breathing pattern of lung cancer patients in the light of nonlinear dynamical system theory. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the one-dimensional respiratory time series of lung cancer patients based on nonlinear dynamics and delay coordinate state space embedding. It is very important to select a suitable pair of embedding dimension 'm' and time delay 'τ' when performing a state space reconstruction. Appropriate time delay and embedding dimension were obtained using well-established methods, namely mutual information and the false nearest neighbour method, respectively. Establishing stationarity and determinism in a given scalar time series is a prerequisite to demonstrating that the nonlinear dynamical system that gave rise to the scalar time series exhibits a sensitive dependence on initial conditions, i.e. is chaotic. Hence, once an appropriate state space embedding of the dynamical system has been reconstructed, we show that the time series of the nonlinear dynamical systems under study are both stationary and deterministic in nature. Once both criteria are established, we proceed to calculate the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE), which is an invariant quantity under time delay embedding. The LLE for all 16 patients is positive, which along with stationarity and determinism establishes the fact that the time series of a lung cancer patient's breathing pattern is not random or irregular, but rather it is deterministic in nature albeit chaotic. These results indicate that chaotic characteristics exist in the respiratory waveform and techniques based on state space dynamics should be employed for tumour motion management.

  12. Suicide epidemics: the impact of newly emerging methods on overall suicide rates - a time trends study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Shu-Sen

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The impact of newly emerging, popular suicide methods on overall rates of suicide has not previously been investigated systematically. Understanding these effects may have important implications for public health surveillance. We examine the emergence of three novel methods of suicide by gassing in the 20th and 21st centuries and determine the impact of emerging methods on overall suicide rates. Methods We studied the epidemic rises in domestic coal gas (1919-1935, England and Wales, motor vehicle exhaust gas (1975-1992, England and Wales and barbecue charcoal gas (1999-2006, Taiwan suicide using Poisson and joinpoint regression models. Joinpoint regression uses contiguous linear segments and join points (points at which trends change to describe trends in incidence. Results Epidemic increases in the use of new methods of suicide were generally associated with rises in overall suicide rates of between 23% and 71%. The recent epidemic of barbecue charcoal suicides in Taiwan was associated with the largest rise in overall rates (40-50% annual rise, whereas the smallest rise was seen for car exhaust gassing in England and Wales (7% annual rise. Joinpoint analyses were only feasible for car exhaust and charcoal burning suicides; these suggested an impact of the emergence of car exhaust suicides on overall suicide rates in both sexes in England and Wales. However there was no statistical evidence of a change in the already increasing overall suicide trends when charcoal burning suicides emerged in Taiwan, possibly due to the concurrent economic recession. Conclusions Rapid rises in the use of new sources of gas for suicide were generally associated with increases in overall suicide rates. Suicide prevention strategies should include strengthening local and national surveillance for early detection of novel suicide methods and implementation of effective media guidelines and other appropriate interventions to limit the spread of

  13. Time course analyses of orthographic and phonological priming effects during word recognition in a transparent orthography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeguers, M H T; Snellings, P; Huizenga, H M; van der Molen, M W

    2014-10-01

    In opaque orthographies, the activation of orthographic and phonological codes follows distinct time courses during visual word recognition. However, it is unclear how orthography and phonology are accessed in more transparent orthographies. Therefore, we conducted time course analyses of masked priming effects in the transparent Dutch orthography. The first study used targets with small phonological differences between phonological and orthographic primes, which are typical in transparent orthographies. Results showed consistent orthographic priming effects, yet phonological priming effects were absent. The second study explicitly manipulated the strength of the phonological difference and revealed that both orthographic and phonological priming effects became identifiable when phonological differences were strong enough. This suggests that, similar to opaque orthographies, strong phonological differences are a prerequisite to separate orthographic and phonological priming effects in transparent orthographies. Orthographic and phonological priming appeared to follow distinct time courses, with orthographic codes being quickly translated into phonological codes and phonology dominating the remainder of the lexical access phase.

  14. Twenty four year time trends in fats and cholesterol intake by adolescents. Warsaw Adolescents Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charzewska Jadwiga

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine time trends (1982–2006 in total fat intake and changes in fatty acid structure intake in adolescents from Warsaw in view of increasing prevalence of obesity. Data come from four successive surveys randomly selected samples of adolescents (aged 11–15 years old, from Warsaw region. In total 9747 pupils have been examined, with response rate varying from 55% to 87% depending on year. Surveys were done always in the spring season of the year. Food intake was assessed by using 24 hours recall method of consumption by the pupils all products, including enriched, dishes and beverages as well as diet supplements, in the last 24 hours preceding the examination. The content of energy and nutrients was calculated by means of own computer softwares (DIET 2 and 4, taking into account successive revisions of the tables of food composition and nutritional values, as well as current Polish DRI. A significant decreasing trend was found in intake of total fat, of saturated fatty acids (SFA and cholesterol. The percentage of energy from total fat, also decreased both in boys (to 35,1% and girls (to 33,7%, what failed to reach the desired level below 30% of energy from fat which is recommended. Also significant decrease of SFA consumption was not satisfactory enough to approach the values <10% of energy recommended as was from 13% to 15%. Decreasing trends in fat intake was not in accordance with the trend in obesity prevalence in the adolescents as average BMI is going up. To stabilize the health-oriented changes especially in the diets of adolescents, further activity is desired from professionals working with prevention of adolescents obesity.

  15. Time Trends in Fast Food Consumption and Its Association with Obesity among Children in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Xue

    Full Text Available Study the trends in Western fast food consumption (FFC among Chinese school-age children and the association between FFC and obesity using nationwide survey data.Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted to study the trends in FFC and the associations between FFC and weight status (overweight, obesity and body mass index (BMI z-score.Longitudinal data from families were collected in the 2004 and 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (covering nine provinces throughout China.The analysis included 2656 Chinese children aged 6 to 18 years (1542 and 1114 children in the 2004 and 2009 survey, respectively.FFC (reported having consumed Western fast food in the past three months has increased between 2004 and 2009, from 18.5% to 23.9% in those aged 6-18, and increased more rapidly among those aged 13-17, from 17.9% to 26.3%. The increase was significant in almost all groups by age, sex, family income, and residence. Our cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses did not detect a significant association between FFC and obesity/overweight or BMI z-score (e.g., for BMI z-score, boys: β = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.71, 0.75; girls: β = -0.14, 95% CI: -1.03, 0.75.FFC has increased in Chinese school-age children, especially in older children, boys, and those from low- and medium-income families, rural areas, and East China, but decreased among those from high-income families during 2004-2009. The data did not show a significant association between FFC and obesity.

  16. Time Trends in Fast Food Consumption and Its Association with Obesity among Children in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Hong; Wu, Yang; Wang, Xiaoyu; Wang, Youfa

    2016-01-01

    Study the trends in Western fast food consumption (FFC) among Chinese school-age children and the association between FFC and obesity using nationwide survey data. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted to study the trends in FFC and the associations between FFC and weight status (overweight, obesity and body mass index (BMI) z-score). Longitudinal data from families were collected in the 2004 and 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (covering nine provinces throughout China). The analysis included 2656 Chinese children aged 6 to 18 years (1542 and 1114 children in the 2004 and 2009 survey, respectively). FFC (reported having consumed Western fast food in the past three months) has increased between 2004 and 2009, from 18.5% to 23.9% in those aged 6-18, and increased more rapidly among those aged 13-17, from 17.9% to 26.3%. The increase was significant in almost all groups by age, sex, family income, and residence. Our cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses did not detect a significant association between FFC and obesity/overweight or BMI z-score (e.g., for BMI z-score, boys: β = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.71, 0.75; girls: β = -0.14, 95% CI: -1.03, 0.75). FFC has increased in Chinese school-age children, especially in older children, boys, and those from low- and medium-income families, rural areas, and East China, but decreased among those from high-income families during 2004-2009. The data did not show a significant association between FFC and obesity.

  17. Time Trends in Fast Food Consumption and Its Association with Obesity among Children in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaoyu; Wang, Youfa

    2016-01-01

    Objective Study the trends in Western fast food consumption (FFC) among Chinese school-age children and the association between FFC and obesity using nationwide survey data. Design Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted to study the trends in FFC and the associations between FFC and weight status (overweight, obesity and body mass index (BMI) z-score). Setting Longitudinal data from families were collected in the 2004 and 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (covering nine provinces throughout China). Subjects The analysis included 2656 Chinese children aged 6 to 18 years (1542 and 1114 children in the 2004 and 2009 survey, respectively). Results FFC (reported having consumed Western fast food in the past three months) has increased between 2004 and 2009, from 18.5% to 23.9% in those aged 6–18, and increased more rapidly among those aged 13–17, from 17.9% to 26.3%. The increase was significant in almost all groups by age, sex, family income, and residence. Our cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses did not detect a significant association between FFC and obesity/overweight or BMI z-score (e.g., for BMI z-score, boys: β = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.71, 0.75; girls: β = -0.14, 95% CI: -1.03, 0.75). Conclusions FFC has increased in Chinese school-age children, especially in older children, boys, and those from low- and medium-income families, rural areas, and East China, but decreased among those from high-income families during 2004–2009. The data did not show a significant association between FFC and obesity. PMID:26974536

  18. Trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation time series over Greece: 1955-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marougianni, G.; Melas, D.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Anandranistakis, E.

    2012-04-01

    In this study, a database of air temperature and precipitation time series from the network of Hellenic National Meteorological Service has been developed in the framework of the project GEOCLIMA, co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009. Initially, a quality test was applied to the raw data and then missing observations have been imputed with a regularized, spatial-temporal expectation - maximization algorithm to complete the climatic record. Next, a quantile - matching algorithm was applied in order to verify the homogeneity of the data. The processed time series were used for the calculation of temporal annual and seasonal trends of air temperature and precipitation. Monthly maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation means at all available stations in Greece were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns for the longest common time period of homogenous data (1955 - 2010), applying the Mann-Kendall test. The majority of the examined stations showed a significant increase in the summer maximum and minimum temperatures; this could be possibly physically linked to the Etesian winds, because of the less frequent expansion of the low over the southeastern Mediterranean. Summer minimum temperatures have been increasing at a faster rate than that of summer maximum temperatures, reflecting an asymmetric change of extreme temperature distributions. Total annual precipitation has been significantly decreased at the stations located in western Greece, as well as in the southeast, while the remaining areas exhibit a non-significant negative trend. This reduction is very likely linked to the positive phase of the NAO that resulted in an increase in the frequency and persistence of anticyclones over the Mediterranean.

  19. Google Trends: Ready for real-time suicide prevention or just a Zeta-Jones effect? An exploratory study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fond, Guillaume; Gaman, Alexandru; Brunel, Lore; Haffen, Emmanuel; Llorca, Pierre-Michel

    2015-08-30

    Two studies have shown that increasing the consultation of the word "suicide" in the Google search engine was associated with a subsequent increase in the prevalence of suicide attempts. The main goal of this article was to explore the trends generated by a key-word search associated with suicide, depression and bipolarity in an attempt to identify general trends (disorders epidemics in the population/"real events" vs newsworthy advertisement/"media event"). Based on previous studies, the frequency of the search words "how to suicide" and "commit suicide" were analyzed for suicide, as well as "depression" (for depressive disorders) and "bipolar disorder". Together, these analyses suggest that the search for the words "how to suicide" or "commit suicide" on the Google search engine may be a good indicator for suicide prevention policies. However, the tool is not developed enough to date to be used as a real time dynamic indicator of suicide epidemics. The frequency of the search for the word "suicide" was associated with those for "depression" but not for "bipolar disorder", but searches for psychiatric conditions seem to be influenced by media events more than by real events in the general population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Analysis of the development trend of China’s business administration based on time series

    OpenAIRE

    Jiang Rui

    2016-01-01

    On the general direction of the economic system, China is in a crucial period of the establishment of the modern enterprise system and reform of the macroeconomic system, and a lot of high-quality business administration talents are required to make China’s economy be stably developed. This paper carries out time series analysis of the development situation of China’s business administration major: on the whole, the society currently presents an upward trend on the demand for the business adm...

  1. Time trends in physical activity from 1982 to 2012 in Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borodulin, K; Harald, K; Jousilahti, P; Laatikainen, T; Männistö, S; Vartiainen, E

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine population trends from 1982 to 2012 in Finland for leisure time physical activity (LTPA), commuting physical activity (CPA), occupational physical activity (OPA), and total physical activity. Furthermore, time trends in physical activity by educational levels and body mass index (BMI) categories were explored. Data were collected in independent cross-sectional population surveys, implemented every 5 years from 1982 to 2012. The data comprised 21,903 men and 24,311 women. Participants underwent a health examination and filled in questionnaires. Information on LTPA, CPA, and OPA was used both separately and combined to create an index of total physical activity. Between 1982 and 2012, high LTPA has increased in men (from 21% to 33%) and women (from 12% to 27%). High CPA and high OPA have decreased in men (from 17% to 12% and from 48% to 36%, respectively) and women (from 30% to 20% and from 26% to 21%, respectively). Total physical activity has remained fairly stable. Differences by education and BMI have increased, particularly for LTPA. Marked changes in physical activity have taken place over time. Differences in LTPA and OPA have grown wider across educational groups and BMI categories. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Teleseism-based Relative Time Corrections for Modern Analyses of Digitized Analog Seismograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, T. A.; Ishii, M.

    2017-12-01

    With modern-day instruments and seismic networks timed by GPS systems, synchronization of data streams is all but a forgone conclusion. However, during the analog era, when each station had its own clock, comparing data timing from different stations was a far more daunting prospect. Today, with recently developed methods by which analog data can be digitized, having the ability to accurately reconcile the timings of two separate stations would open decades worth of data to modern analyses. For example, one possible and exciting application would be using noise interferometry with digitized analog data in order to investigate changing structural features (on a volcano for example) over a much longer timescale than was previously possible. With this in mind, we introduce a new approach to sync time between stations based on teleseismic arrivals. P-wave arrivals are identified at stations for pairs of earthquakes from the digital and analog eras that have nearly identical distances, locations, and depths. Assuming accurate timing of the modern data, relative time corrections between a pair of stations can then be inferred for the analog data. This method for time correction depends upon the analog stations having modern equivalents, and both having sufficiently long durations of operation to allow for recording of usable teleseismic events. The Hawaii Volcano Observatory (HVO) network is an especially ideal environment for this, as it not only has a large and well-preserved collection of analog seismograms, but also has a long operating history (1912 - present) with many of the older stations having modern equivalents. As such, the scope of this project is to calculate and apply relative time corrections to analog data from two HVO stations, HILB (1919-present) and UWE (1928-present)(HILB now part of Pacific Tsunami network). Further application of this method could be for investigation of the effects of relative clock-drift, that is, the determining factor for how

  3. Trends in Overall Mortality, and Timing and Cause of Death among Extremely Preterm Infants near the Limit of Viability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Sein; Ahn, So Yoon; Park, Won Soon

    2017-01-01

    Objective To investigate the trends in mortality, as well as in the timing and cause of death, among extremely preterm infants at the limit of viability, and thus to identify the clinical factors that contribute to decreased mortality. Methods We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 382 infants born at 23–26 weeks’ gestation; 124 of the infants were born between 2001 and 2005 (period I) and 258 were born between 2006 and 2011 (period II). We stratified the infants into two subgroups–“23–24 weeks” and “25–26 weeks”–and retrospectively analyzed the clinical characteristics and mortality in each group, as well as the timing and cause of death. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were done to identify the clinical factors associated with mortality. Results The overall mortality rate in period II was 16.7% (43/258), which was significantly lower than that in period I (30.6%; 38/124). For overall cause of death, there were significantly fewer deaths due to sepsis (2.4% [6/258] vs. 8.1% [10/124], respectively) and air-leak syndrome (0.8% [2/258] vs. 4.8% (6/124), respectively) during period II than during period I. Among the clinical factors of time period, 1-and 5-min Apgar score, antenatal steroid identified significant by univariate analyses. 5-min Apgar score and antenatal steroid use were significantly associated with mortality in multivariate analyses. Conclusion Improved mortality rate attributable to fewer deaths due to sepsis and air leak syndrome in the infants with 23–26 weeks’ gestation was associated with higher 5-minute Apgar score and more antenatal steroid use. PMID:28114330

  4. A retrospective time trend study of PBDEs and PCBs in human milk from the Faroe Islands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faengstroem, B.; Strid, A.; Athanassiadis, I.; Bergman, Aa. [Dept. of Environmental Chemistry, Stockholm Univ. (Sweden); Grandjean, P. [Inst. of Public Health, Univ. of Southern Denmark, Odense (Denmark); Weihe, P. [Faroese Hospital System, Torshavn (Denmark)

    2004-09-15

    The Faroe Islands are located quite far from the European continent and from industrial sources of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). However, the Faroese population may be exposed to these substances through contaminated food, via goods and products in their homes, and in their work environment. High trophic level marine species, including pilot whale and seabirds, such as fulmars, have been shown to accumulate high concentrations of organohalogen substances (OHS) like PCBs and PBDEs. Possibly due to dietary differences, wide differences exist in regard to PCB exposures among the Faroese. In a birth cohort from 1987, milk pools contained relatively high PCB concentrations between 1.9-2.5 {mu}g/g lipid weight (l.w.). In another cohort from 1994, serum from pregnant Faroese women was analyzed for PCB and OH-PCBs, with results ranging from 0.15 to 22 {mu}g/g l.w. and 0.02 to 1.8 {mu}g/g l.w., respectively. In a time trend study for PBDEs and PCBs in human milk from Sweden from the early 1970s to 1997, the PBDE concentrations showed a significant increase while the PCB levels showed a decrease. Human milk samples from 1997 to 2000 indicate a decrease for the PBDEs, mainly due to reduced concentrations of BDE-47. A similar trend has been seen in human milk from Japan. In Norway, PBDE in human milk increased from 1986 to 2001, with similar concentration levels as reported in Sweden and Japan. In the United States the PBDE levels reported in human milk are about 4 times higher than those seen in Europe and Japan. The aim of the present study was to determine PBDE and PCB concentrations in a temporal trend study with samples from 1987-1999 in human milk samples from the Faroe Islands.

  5. Trends and advances in food analysis by real-time polymerase chain reaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salihah, Nur Thaqifah; Hossain, Mohammad Mosharraf; Lubis, Hamadah; Ahmed, Minhaz Uddin

    2016-05-01

    Analyses to ensure food safety and quality are more relevant now because of rapid changes in the quantity, diversity and mobility of food. Food-contamination must be determined to maintain health and up-hold laws, as well as for ethical and cultural concerns. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), a rapid and inexpensive quantitative method to detect the presence of targeted DNA-segments in samples, helps in determining both accidental and intentional adulterations of foods by biological contaminants. This review presents recent developments in theory, techniques, and applications of RT-PCR in food analyses, RT-PCR addresses the limitations of traditional food analyses in terms of sensitivity, range of analytes, multiplexing ability, cost, time, and point-of-care applications. A range of targets, including species of plants or animals which are used as food ingredients, food-borne bacteria or viruses, genetically modified organisms, and allergens, even in highly processed foods can be identified by RT-PCR, even at very low concentrations. Microfluidic RT-PCR eliminates the separate sample-processing step to create opportunities for point-of-care analyses. We also cover the challenges related to using RT-PCR for food analyses, such as the need to further improve sample handling.

  6. Agenda Trending: Reciprocity and the Predictive Capacity of Social Networking Sites in Intermedia Agenda Setting across Topics over Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob Groshek

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In the contemporary converged media environment, agenda setting is being transformed by the dramatic growth of audiences that are simultaneously media users and producers. The study reported here addresses related gaps in the literature by first comparing the topical agendas of two leading traditional media outlets (New York Times and CNN with the most frequently shared stories and trending topics on two widely popular Social Networking Sites (Facebook and Twitter. Time-series analyses of the most prominent topics identify the extent to which traditional media sets the agenda for social media as well as reciprocal agenda-setting effects of social media topics entering traditional media agendas. In addition, this study examines social intermedia agenda setting topically and across time within social networking sites, and in so doing, adds a vital understanding of where traditional media, online uses, and social media content intersect around instances of focusing events, particularly elections. Findings identify core differences between certain traditional and social media agendas, but also within social media agendas that extend from uses examined here. Additional results further suggest important topical and event-oriented limitations upon the predictive capacit of social networking sites to shape traditional media agendas over time.

  7. Characterization and adequacy of the use of radiotherapy and its trend in time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palacios Eito, Amalia; Cabezas, Sonia García; Font Ugalde, Pilar; Rivin del Campo, Eleonor; Otero Romero, Ana; Mar Pérez Martín, María del; Roldán Arjona, Juan Manuel; Martínez Paredes, María

    2013-01-01

    Background and purpose: Characterization of radiotherapy activity and its trend over time. Gathering of parameters for future planning of our resources, applicable to similar population areas. Performing a clinical audit of appropriate use of radiotherapy. Material and methods: Analysis of 9782 patients treated between 1998 and 2008. Descriptive statistics of pathologies and social/demographic characteristics. Intention of treatment. The rate of radiotherapy utilization was estimated and compared with those considered optimal. Rate of reirradiation. Results: The average global rate of radiotherapy utilization for the period was 32.7%. It increased by 23% between 1998 and 2008, while the population of the area rose by 1.04%, equaling an average 1.13 irradiations/1000 inhabitants/year. Radiation treatment has increased by 13.6, 2.3, 1.6 and 1.06 times in patients with prostate, breast, rectal and lung cancer, respectively. Eight percent of radiotherapy treatments involve concurrent chemotherapy. The proportion of treatments with palliative intent was 18.2%. The overall underutilization of radiation therapy in our environment was an estimated 13.4%. Conclusions: The grade of adequacy of radiation rates in relation with scientific evidence was globally considered suboptimal, especially in lung cancer. There was an upward trend of irradiation in breast and prostate cancer, tending toward rates considered optimal

  8. Tuberculosis in Mexico and the USA, Comparison of Trends Over Time 1990-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Garduño, Eduardo; Mendoza-Damián, Fabiola; Garduño-Alanís, Adriana; Ayón-Garibaldo, Salvador

    2015-07-01

    The aim was to compare tuberculosis trends in Mexico and United States and to evaluate Mexican diagnostic methods and contact investigation. Retrospective comparative study of tuberculosis cases and incidence rates between both countries (1990-2010). Diagnostic methods and contact investigations were also evaluated for Mexico. Estimates were obtained from official websites. In Mexico, no clear trend was found over time for cases. Pulmonary (PTB) and all forms of tuberculosis (AFTB) incidence decreased 2.0% annually. There was a negative correlation between the mean contacts examined per case and AFTB incidence (r(2)=-0.44, p=0.01) with a 33% reduction in AFTB incidence. In United States, PTB and AFTB cases have been decreasing 6.0% and 5.6% annually, respectively. The incidence decreased 7.3% and 6.8%, respectively. The incidence of tuberculosis in Mexico is decreasing slightly over time at 2% annually. In the United States, cases and incidence rates have been decreasing at a higher rate (5% to 7% annually). The inverse association between number of contacts examined per state and incidence rates in Mexico underscore the importance of reinforcing and improving contact investigations with the likely translation of a decrease of TB incidence at a higher rate.

  9. Time trends of chronic HBV infection over prior decades - A global analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, Jördis J; Horn, Johannes; Krause, Gérard; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T

    2017-01-01

    Information on trends in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevalence across countries is lacking. We studied changes in chronic HBV infection over previous decades by country, and assessed patterns of change between and within WHO-defined regions. Based on data from a published systematic review on chronic HBV, we applied a linear model on the logit scale to assess time trends in country-specific prevalence. Estimated HBsAg prevalence in 2000 and relative changes in prevalence over time were evaluated by country and region. Sufficient data were available for 50 countries, mostly showing reductions in prevalence over time. Various degrees of heterogeneity were observed within regions, with a relatively homogenous pattern in the Eastern Mediterranean region with strong decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Europe showed a mixed pattern: higher and stable chronic HBsAg prevalence in Eastern, and constantly low prevalence in Western Europe. In Africa, some countries demonstrated no change in prevalence; increases were seen in Uganda (odds ratio 1.05 per year; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.06), Nigeria (1.02; 1.02-1.02), Senegal (1.01; 1.01-1.02), and South Africa (1.02; 1.01-1.02). With some exceptions, country-patterns overlapped among countries of South East Asian and Western Pacific regions, characterized by low-medium HBsAg decreases, most prominent in China and Malaysia. Most countries experienced decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Dynamics varied, even within regions; decreases occurred mostly before the direct effects of childhood vaccination may have manifested. These findings together with stable and increasing HBsAg prevalence in some countries of Africa and Eastern Europe indicate the need for further tailored country-specific prevention. This study investigated time trends in prevalence of chronic HBV infection in 50 countries worldwide over the last decade, by estimating relative changes in prevalence. Results show decreases in chronic HBV infection in most countries

  10. Analysing recent socioeconomic trends in coronary heart disease mortality in England, 2000-2007: a population modelling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madhavi Bajekal

    , opposing trends in major risk factors meant that their net contribution amounted to just over a third of the CHD deaths averted; these also varied substantially by socioeconomic group. Powerful and equitable evidence-based population-wide policy interventions exist; these should now be urgently implemented to effectively tackle persistent inequalities.

  11. Real-Time Soils Characterization and Analyses Systems Used at Ohio Closure Sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roybal, Lyle Gene; Carpenter, Michael Vance; Giles, John Robert; Hartwell, John Kelvin; Danahy, R.

    2003-01-01

    The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) and the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP) have jointly developed a field-deployed analytical system to rapidly scan, characterize, and analyze surface soil contamination. The basic system consists of a sodium iodide (NaI) spectrometer and global positioning system (GPS) hardware. This hardware can be deployed from any of four different platforms depending on the scope of the survey at hand. These platforms range from a large tractor-based unit (the RTRAK) used to survey large, relatively flat areas to a hand-pushed unit where maneuverability is important, to an excavator mounted system used to scan pits and trenches. The mobile sodium iodide concept was initially developed by the FEMP to provide pre-screening analyses for soils contaminated with uranium, thorium, and radium. The initial study is documented in the RTRAK Applicability Study and provides analyses supporting the field usage of the concept. The RTRAK system produced data that required several days of post-processing and analyses to generate an estimation of field coverage and activity levels. The INEEL has provided integrated engineering, computer hardware and software support to greatly streamline the data acquisition and analysis process to the point where real-time activity and coverage maps are available to the field technicians. On-line analyses have been added to automatically convert GPS data to Ohio State-Plane coordinates, examine and correct collected spectra for energy calibration drifts common to NaI spectrometers, and strip spectra in regions of interest to provide moisture corrected activity levels for total uranium, thorium-232, and radium-226. Additionally, the software provides a number of checks and alarms to alert operators that a hand-examination of spectral data in a particular area may be required. The FEMP has estimated that this technology has produced projected site savings in excess of $34M

  12. Time Series Analysis of Onchocerciasis Data from Mexico: A Trend towards Elimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Rodríguez, Miguel A.; Adeleke, Monsuru A.; Orozco-Algarra, María E.; Arrendondo-Jiménez, Juan I.; Guo, Xianwu

    2013-01-01

    Background In Latin America, there are 13 geographically isolated endemic foci distributed among Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil and Ecuador. The communities of the three endemic foci found within Mexico have been receiving ivermectin treatment since 1989. In this study, we predicted the trend of occurrence of cases in Mexico by applying time series analysis to monthly onchocerciasis data reported by the Mexican Secretariat of Health between 1988 and 2011 using the software R. Results A total of 15,584 cases were reported in Mexico from 1988 to 2011. The data of onchocerciasis cases are mainly from the main endemic foci of Chiapas and Oaxaca. The last case in Oaxaca was reported in 1998, but new cases were reported in the Chiapas foci up to 2011. Time series analysis performed for the foci in Mexico showed a decreasing trend of the disease over time. The best-fitted models with the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) were Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, which were used to predict the tendency of onchocerciasis cases for two years ahead. According to the ARIMA models predictions, the cases in very low number (below 1) are expected for the disease between 2012 and 2013 in Chiapas, the last endemic region in Mexico. Conclusion The endemic regions of Mexico evolved from high onchocerciasis-endemic states to the interruption of transmission due to the strategies followed by the MSH, based on treatment with ivermectin. The extremely low level of expected cases as predicted by ARIMA models for the next two years suggest that the onchocerciasis is being eliminated in Mexico. To our knowledge, it is the first study utilizing time series for predicting case dynamics of onchocerciasis, which could be used as a benchmark during monitoring and post-treatment surveillance. PMID:23459370

  13. Time trends, improvements and national auditing of rectal cancer management over an 18-year period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodeda, K; Johansson, R; Zar, N; Birgisson, H; Dahlberg, M; Skullman, S; Lindmark, G; Glimelius, B; Påhlman, L; Martling, A

    2015-09-01

    The main aims were to explore time trends in the management and outcome of patients with rectal cancer in a national cohort and to evaluate the possible impact of national auditing on overall outcomes. A secondary aim was to provide population-based data for appraisal of external validity in selected patient series. Data from the Swedish ColoRectal Cancer Registry with virtually complete national coverage were utilized in this cohort study on 29 925 patients with rectal cancer diagnosed between 1995 and 2012. Of eligible patients, nine were excluded. During the study period, overall, relative and disease-free survival increased. Postoperative mortality after 30 and 90 days decreased to 1.7% and 2.9%. The 5-year local recurrence rate dropped to 5.0%. Resection margins improved, as did peri-operative blood loss despite more multivisceral resections being performed. Fewer patients underwent palliative resection and the proportion of non-operated patients increased. The proportions of temporary and permanent stoma formation increased. Preoperative radiotherapy and chemoradiotherapy became more common as did multidisciplinary team conferences. Variability in rectal cancer management between healthcare regions diminished over time when new aspects of patient care were audited. There have been substantial changes over time in the management of patients with rectal cancer, reflected in improved outcome. Much indirect evidence indicates that auditing matters, but without a control group it is not possible to draw firm conclusions regarding the possible impact of a quality control registry on faster shifts in time trends, decreased variability and improvements. Registry data were made available for reference. Colorectal Disease © 2015 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

  14. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in the southern Tianshan Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yan-Jun; Shen, Yanjun; Fink, Manfred; Kralisch, Sven; Chen, Yaning; Brenning, Alexander

    2018-02-01

    Streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing of mountain rivers are susceptible to climate change. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in four mountain basins in the southern Tianshan were analyzed in this study. Streamflow trends were detected by Mann-Kendall tests and changes in snowmelt runoff timing were analyzed based on the winter/spring snowmelt runoff center time (WSCT). Pearson's correlation coefficient was further calculated to analyze the relationships between climate variables, streamflow and WSCT. Annual streamflow increased significantly in past decades in the southern Tianshan, especially in spring and winter months. However, the relations between streamflow and temperature/precipitation depend on the different streamflow generation processes. Annual precipitation plays a vital role in controlling recharge in the Toxkon basin, while the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are governed by both precipitation and temperature. Seasonally, temperature has a strong effect on streamflow in autumn and winter, while summer streamflow appears more sensitive to changes in precipitation. However, temperature is the dominant factor for streamflow in the glacierized Kunmalik basin at annual and seasonal scales. An uptrend in streamflow begins in the 1990s at both annual and seasonal scales, which is generally consistent with temperature and precipitation fluctuations. Average WSCT dates in the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are earlier than in the Toxkon and Kunmalik basins, and shifted towards earlier dates since the mid-1980s in all the basins. It is plausible that WSCT dates are more sensitive to warmer temperature in spring period compared to precipitation, except for the Huangshuigou basin. Taken together, these findings are useful for applications in flood risk regulation, future hydropower projects and integrated water resources management.

  15. Breast cancer screening in Italy: evaluating key performance indicators for time trends and activity volumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giordano, Livia; Castagno, Roberta; Giorgi, Daniela; Piccinelli, Cristiano; Ventura, Leonardo; Segnan, Nereo; Zappa, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Together with the National centre for screening monitoring (ONS), GISMa supports annual collection of data on national breast screening activities. Aggregated data on implementation and performance are gathered through a standardized form to calculate process and impact indicators. Analyzed data belong to 153 local programmes in the period 2006-2011 (2006-2012 for participation rate only). During the whole period, Italian crude participation rate exceeded GISMa's acceptable standard (50%), even though a higher participation in northern and central Italy compared to southern Italy and Islands was observed. Time trend analysis of diagnostic indicators confirmed in 2011 an adequate quality of breast screening performance, especially at subsequent screening. Recall rate at initial screening did not reach the acceptable standard (performance was achieved at subsequent screening. The same trend was followed by the overall detection rate and positive predictive value. They both showed a progressive reduction (from 6.2‰ in 2006 to 4.5‰ in 2011 for DR and from 8.0% in 2006 to 5.2% in 2011 for PPV, respectively) at initial screening and a good, stable trend at subsequent screening. Activity volume analysis shows that in programmes with greater activity (test/year ≥10,000) RR at both initial and subsequent screening has a better performance. This is also true for DR and PPV where programmes with high volumes of activity do better, especially when compared with those that interpret fewer than 5,000 mammograms per year. In spite of a few limits, these results are reassuring, and they reward the efforts made by screening professionals. It is therefore important to continue to monitor screening indicators and suggest, test, and evaluate new strategies for continuous improvement.

  16. Recent trends in the timing of first sex and marriage among young women in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reda, A Alex; Lindstrom, David

    2014-07-01

    Ethiopia has been characterized by high population growth. Recent social and economic developments have the potential to alter reproductive patterns in the country. Some of these developments include sustained economic growth, urbanization, rapid growth in school enrollments, expansion of primary health care, and a rise in contraceptive access and use. In other national contexts, these developments have been associated with a gradual decoupling of the transition into sexual activity and marriage among young women. We investigate recent trends in the transition into first sex and marriage among three cohorts of Ethiopian women. Using data from the 2000, 2005, and 2011 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) we estimate survival curves and discrete-time hazards models to examine recent trends in age at first sex and first marriage among women ages 20-29. Across the three survey years the median age at first sex has remained relatively stable at 17 years, although the median age at marriage has increased from 17 to 18 years between the 2005 and 2011 surveys. Net of the effects of education and place of residence, there is evidence of a slight trend away from premarital first sex to sexual initiation in the context of marriage. However, among the most educated women and women living in urban areas (who are a small minority of women), there is a much greater tendency to initiate sexual activity outside of marriage compared to women with little schooling and women living in rural areas, and once they have begun sexual activity they tend to wait longer before they get married. We also find evidence in the most recent survey that women who have first sexual intercourse before marriage are delaying marriage more than was the case among earlier cohorts.

  17. Exploratory space-time analyses of Rift Valley Fever in South Africa in 2008-2011.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raphaëlle Métras

    Full Text Available Rift Valley fever (RVF is a zoonotic arbovirosis for which the primary hosts are domestic livestock (cattle, sheep and goats. RVF was first described in South Africa in 1950-1951. Mechanisms for short and long distance transmission have been hypothesised, but there is little supporting evidence. Here we describe RVF occurrence and spatial distribution in South Africa in 2008-11, and investigate the presence of a contagious process in order to generate hypotheses on the different mechanisms of transmission.A total of 658 cases were extracted from World Animal Health Information Database. Descriptive statistics, epidemic curves and maps were produced. The space-time K-function was used to test for evidence of space-time interaction. Five RVF outbreak waves (one in 2008, two in 2009, one in 2010 and one in 2011 of varying duration, location and size were reported. About 70% of cases (n = 471 occurred in 2010, when the epidemic was almost country-wide. No strong evidence of space-time interaction was found for 2008 or the second wave in 2009. In the first wave of 2009, a significant space-time interaction was detected for up to one month and over 40 km. In 2010 and 2011 a significant intense, short and localised space-time interaction (up to 3 days and 15 km was detected, followed by one of lower intensity (up to 2 weeks and 35 to 90 km.The description of the spatiotemporal patterns of RVF in South Africa between 2008 and 2011 supports the hypothesis that during an epidemic, disease spread may be supported by factors other than active vector dispersal. Limitations of under-reporting and space-time K-function properties are discussed. Further spatial analyses and data are required to explain factors and mechanisms driving RVF spread.

  18. Exploratory study on a statistical method to analyse time resolved data obtained during nanomaterial exposure measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clerc, F; Njiki-Menga, G-H; Witschger, O

    2013-01-01

    Most of the measurement strategies that are suggested at the international level to assess workplace exposure to nanomaterials rely on devices measuring, in real time, airborne particles concentrations (according different metrics). Since none of the instruments to measure aerosols can distinguish a particle of interest to the background aerosol, the statistical analysis of time resolved data requires special attention. So far, very few approaches have been used for statistical analysis in the literature. This ranges from simple qualitative analysis of graphs to the implementation of more complex statistical models. To date, there is still no consensus on a particular approach and the current period is always looking for an appropriate and robust method. In this context, this exploratory study investigates a statistical method to analyse time resolved data based on a Bayesian probabilistic approach. To investigate and illustrate the use of the this statistical method, particle number concentration data from a workplace study that investigated the potential for exposure via inhalation from cleanout operations by sandpapering of a reactor producing nanocomposite thin films have been used. In this workplace study, the background issue has been addressed through the near-field and far-field approaches and several size integrated and time resolved devices have been used. The analysis of the results presented here focuses only on data obtained with two handheld condensation particle counters. While one was measuring at the source of the released particles, the other one was measuring in parallel far-field. The Bayesian probabilistic approach allows a probabilistic modelling of data series, and the observed task is modelled in the form of probability distributions. The probability distributions issuing from time resolved data obtained at the source can be compared with the probability distributions issuing from the time resolved data obtained far-field, leading in a

  19. Time is on whose side? Time trends in the association between maternal social disadvantage and offspring fetal growth. A study of 1,409,339 births in Denmark 1981-2004

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Laust H; Diderichsen, Finn; Davey-Smith, George

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Fetal growth is highly socially patterned and is related to health across the life course, but how the social patterns of fetal growth change over time remains understudied. We examined the time trends in maternal social disadvantage in relation to fetal growth in the context of a univ......OBJECTIVE: Fetal growth is highly socially patterned and is related to health across the life course, but how the social patterns of fetal growth change over time remains understudied. We examined the time trends in maternal social disadvantage in relation to fetal growth in the context...... of a universal welfare state under changing macroeconomic conditions over a 24-year period. Design and settings: All births in Denmark 1981-2004. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The association between maternal social disadvantage in relation to birth weight for gestational age z-scores over time were analysed using...... linear regression. RESULTS: All measures of social disadvantage were associated with decreased fetal growth (p

  20. A three-stage hybrid model for regionalization, trends and sensitivity analyses of temperature anomalies in China from 1966 to 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Feifei; Yang, XiaoHua; Shen, Zhenyao

    2018-06-01

    Temperature anomalies have received increasing attention due to their potentially severe impacts on ecosystems, economy and human health. To facilitate objective regionalization and examine regional temperature anomalies, a three-stage hybrid model with stages of regionalization, trends and sensitivity analyses was developed. Annual mean and extreme temperatures were analyzed using the daily data collected from 537 stations in China from 1966 to 2015, including the annual mean, minimum and maximum temperatures (Tm, TNm and TXm) as well as the extreme minimum and maximum temperatures (TNe and TXe). The results showed the following: (1) subregions with coherent temperature changes were identified using the rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis and K-means clustering algorithm. The numbers of subregions were 6, 7, 8, 9 and 8 for Tm, TNm, TXm, TNe and TXe, respectively. (2) Significant increases in temperature were observed in most regions of China from 1966 to 2015, although warming slowed down over the last decade. This warming primarily featured a remarkable increase in its minimum temperature. For Tm and TNm, 95% of the stations showed a significant upward trend at the 99% confidence level. TNe increased the fastest, at a rate of 0.56 °C/decade, whereas 21% of the stations in TXe showed a downward trend. (3) The mean temperatures (Tm, TNm and TXm) in the high-latitude regions increased more quickly than those in the low-latitude regions. The maximum temperature increased significantly at high elevations, whereas the minimum temperature increased greatly at middle-low elevations. The most pronounced warming occurred in eastern China in TNe and northwestern China in TXe, with mean elevations of 51 m and 2098 m, respectively. A cooling trend in TXe was observed at the northwestern end of China. The warming rate in TNe varied the most among the subregions (0.63 °C/decade).

  1. Trends in Pap Testing Over Time for Women With and Without Chronic Disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kurtz, Stephen G; Rao, Sowmya R

    2016-02-01

    Data from 20 years ago--shortly after passage of the Americans with Disabilities Act--showed that women with significant mobility disability had 40% lower Pap test rates than other women. To examine whether disability disparities in Pap test rates have diminished over time, this study analyzed National Health Interview Survey responses from selected years between 1998 and 2010 from women aged 21-65 years without histories of cervical cancer or hysterectomy. Seven chronic disability types were identified using self-reported functional impairments or participation limitations. Self-reported Pap testing within the previous 3 years was studied. Bivariable analyses and multivariable logistic regression analyses controlling for sociodemographic variables were conducted in 2014. Rates of all chronic disability types increased over time. Pap test rates remained relatively constant over time for all women, holding around 84%-87%. Bivariable analyses found statistically significantly lower rates of Pap testing for women with disability compared with nondisabled women. Multivariable analyses failed to find consistent evidence of lower Pap test rates among women across disability types compared with nondisabled women. In 2010, the AOR for reporting Pap testing for women noting the most severe movement difficulty compared with nondisabled women was 0.35 (95% CI=0.15, 0.79). However, the AOR for this disability type varied over time. Little has changed over time in Pap test rates for all women. Women with certain disabilities continue to experience disparities compared with nondisabled women in receipt of this important screening test. Copyright © 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Time trends in prostate cancer surgery: data from an Internet-based multicentre database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schostak, Martin; Baumunk, Daniel; Jagota, Anita; Klopf, Christian; Winter, Alexander; Schäfers, Sebastian; Kössler, Robert; Brennecke, Volker; Fischer, Tom; Hagel, Susanne; Höchel, Steffen; Jäkel, Dierk; Lehsnau, Mike; Krege, Susanne; Rüffert, Bernd; Pretzer, Jana; Becht, Eduard; Zegenhagen, Thomas; Miller, Kurt; Weikert, Steffen

    2012-02-01

    To report our experience with an Internet-based multicentre database that enables tumour documentation, as well as the collection of quality-related parameters and follow-up data, in surgically treated patients with prostate cancer. The system was used to assess the quality of prostate cancer surgery and to analyze possible time-dependent trends in the quality of care. An Internet-based database system enabled a standardized collection of treatment data and clinical findings from the participating urological centres for the years 2005-2009. An analysis was performed aiming to evaluate relevant patient characteristics (age, pathological tumour stage, preoperative International Index of Erectile Function-5 score), intra-operative parameters (operating time, percentage of nerve-sparing operations, complication rate, transfusion rate, number of resected lymph nodes) and postoperative parameters (hospitalization time, re-operation rate, catheter indwelling time). Mean values were calculated and compared for each annual cohort from 2005 to 2008. The overall survival rate was also calculated for a subgroup of the Berlin patients. A total of 914, 1120, 1434 and 1750 patients submitted to radical prostatectomy in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 were documented in the database. The mean age at the time of surgery remained constant (66 years) during the study period. More than half the patients already had erectile dysfunction before surgery (median International Index of Erectile Function-5 score of 19-20). During the observation period, there was a decrease in the percentage of pT2 tumours (1% in 2005; 64% in 2008) and a slight increase in the percentage of patients with lymph node metastases (8% in 2005; 10% in 2008). No time trend was found for the operating time (142-155 min) or the percentage of nerve-sparing operations (72-78% in patients without erectile dysfunction). A decreasing frequency was observed for the parameters: blood transfusions (1.9% in 2005; 0.5% in 2008

  3. The Seismic Reliability of Offshore Structures Based on Nonlinear Time History Analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosseini, Mahmood; Karimiyani, Somayyeh; Ghafooripour, Amin; Jabbarzadeh, Mohammad Javad

    2008-01-01

    Regarding the past earthquakes damages to offshore structures, as vital structures in the oil and gas industries, it is important that their seismic design is performed by very high reliability. Accepting the Nonlinear Time History Analyses (NLTHA) as the most reliable seismic analysis method, in this paper an offshore platform of jacket type with the height of 304 feet, having a deck of 96 feet by 94 feet, and weighing 290 million pounds has been studied. At first, some Push-Over Analyses (POA) have been preformed to recognize the more critical members of the jacket, based on the range of their plastic deformations. Then NLTHA have been performed by using the 3-components accelerograms of 100 earthquakes, covering a wide range of frequency content, and normalized to three Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) levels of 0.3 g, 0.65 g, and 1.0 g. By using the results of NLTHA the damage and rupture probabilities of critical member have been studied to assess the reliability of the jacket structure. Regarding that different structural members of the jacket have different effects on the stability of the platform, an ''importance factor'' has been considered for each critical member based on its location and orientation in the structure, and then the reliability of the whole structure has been obtained by combining the reliability of the critical members, each having its specific importance factor

  4. TVSA-T fuel assembly for 'Temelin' NPP. Main results of design and safety analyses. Trends of development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samojlov, O.B.; Kajdalov, V.B.; Falkov, A.A.; Bolnov, V.A.; Morozkin, O.N.; Molchanov, V.L.; Ugryumov, A.V.

    2010-01-01

    TVSA is a fuel assembly with rigid skeleton formed by 6 angle pieces and SG is successfully operated at 17 VVER-1000 power units of Kalinin NPP, as well as at Ukrainian and Bulgarian NPPs. Based on a contract for fuel supply to the Temelin NPP, the TVSA-T fuel assembly was developed, building on proven solutions confirmed by operation of TVSA modifications during 4-6 years and by the results of post-irradiation examination. The TVSA-T design includes combined spacer grids (SG+MG) and by fuel column elongation by 150 mm. A set of analyses and experiments was performed to validate the design, including thermal hydraulic tests, validation of critical heat flux correlation for TVSA-T, integrated mechanical, vibration and lifetime tests. A licence to use the fuel has been granted by the Czech State Office for Nuclear Safety. The TVSA-T core is currently in operation at the Temelin-1 reactor unit. The presentation is concluded as follows: TVSA-T fuel assembly for Temelin has been validated. The TVSA-T design is based on approved technical decisions and meets the current requirements for lifetime, operational maneuverability and safety. The results of post-irradiation examination of TVSA-T operated at the Kalinin-1 unit for 4 years confirm the assembly operability, skeleton stiffness, geometric stability and normal fuel rod cladding condition. The properties of the TVSA fuel with MG allow the core power to be increased up to 3300 MW to match the envisaged future VVER (MIR-1200) design, providing allowable fuel rod power FΔh =1.63 (to implement effective fuel cycles). (P.A.)

  5. Mobile eHealth interventions for obesity: a timely opportunity to leverage convergence trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tufano, James T; Karras, Bryant T

    2005-12-20

    Obesity is often cited as the most prevalent chronic health condition and highest priority public health problem in the United States. There is a limited but growing body of evidence suggesting that mobile eHealth behavioral interventions, if properly designed, may be effective in promoting and sustaining successful weight loss and weight maintenance behavior changes. This paper reviews the current literature on the successes and failures of public health, provider-administered, and self-managed behavioral health interventions for weight loss. The prevailing theories of health behavior change are discussed from the perspective of how this knowledge can serve as an evidence base to inform the design of mobile eHealth weight loss interventions. Tailored informational interventions, which, in recent years, have proven to be the most effective form of conventional health behavior intervention for weight loss, are discussed. Lessons learned from the success of conventional tailored informational interventions and the early successes of desktop computer-assisted self-help weight management interventions are presented, as are design principles suggested by Social Cognitive Theory and the Social Marketing Model. Relevant computing and communications technology convergence trends are also discussed. The recent trends in rapid advancement, convergence, and public adoption of Web-enabled cellular telephone and wireless personal digital assistant (PDA) devices provide timely opportunities to deliver the mass customization capabilities, reach, and interactivity required for the development, administration, and adoption of effective population-level eHealth tailored informational interventions for obesity.

  6. Trends in leisure time and occupational physical activity in the Madrid region, 1995-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meseguer, Carmen M; Galán, Iñaki; Herruzo, Rafael; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando

    2011-01-01

    Information on trends in physical activity is very scarce in Mediterranean countries, which have the highest sedentariness in Europe. This study describes recent trends in leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and at work in the Madrid region. The data were taken from representative annual surveys of population aged 18-64 years, between 1995-2008, 28,084 people participated. We calculated total energy, quantified in metabolic equivalent (MET-1 h per week), spent on LTPA and on light LTPA (6 MET). The annual change in LTPA was estimated by linear regression, and occupational activity by logistic regression, adjusting for age, gender and educational level. The total amount of LTPA in MET-1 h per week declined by 19.8% (Pgenders, all age groups and educational levels, except for those with the lowest level of education. The adjusted annual change in MET-1 h per week was: -0.21 (Pphysical inactivity has increased in the general population (odds ratio for annual change=1.01; 95% confidence interval, 1-1.02); specially in women, young and middle aged, and intermediate educational level. There has been a decline in LTPA, mainly in light and moderate activities, accompanied by greater occupational physical inactivity. This could have contributed to the increase in obesity in the Community of Madrid between 1995-2008. Copyright © 2010 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  7. Application of the Trend Filtering Algorithm for Photometric Time Series Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalan, Giri; Plavchan, Peter; van Eyken, Julian; Ciardi, David; von Braun, Kaspar; Kane, Stephen R.

    2016-08-01

    Detecting transient light curves (e.g., transiting planets) requires high-precision data, and thus it is important to effectively filter systematic trends affecting ground-based wide-field surveys. We apply an implementation of the Trend Filtering Algorithm (TFA) to the 2MASS calibration catalog and select Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) photometric time series data. TFA is successful at reducing the overall dispersion of light curves, however, it may over-filter intrinsic variables and increase “instantaneous” dispersion when a template set is not judiciously chosen. In an attempt to rectify these issues we modify the original TFA from the literature by including measurement uncertainties in its computation, including ancillary data correlated with noise, and algorithmically selecting a template set using clustering algorithms as suggested by various authors. This approach may be particularly useful for appropriately accounting for variable photometric precision surveys and/or combined data sets. In summary, our contributions are to provide a MATLAB software implementation of TFA and a number of modifications tested on synthetics and real data, summarize the performance of TFA and various modifications on real ground-based data sets (2MASS and PTF), and assess the efficacy of TFA and modifications using synthetic light curve tests consisting of transiting and sinusoidal variables. While the transiting variables test indicates that these modifications confer no advantage to transit detection, the sinusoidal variables test indicates potential improvements in detection accuracy.

  8. Estimation of main diversification time-points of hantaviruses using phylogenetic analyses of complete genomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castel, Guillaume; Tordo, Noël; Plyusnin, Alexander

    2017-04-02

    Because of the great variability of their reservoir hosts, hantaviruses are excellent models to evaluate the dynamics of virus-host co-evolution. Intriguing questions remain about the timescale of the diversification events that influenced this evolution. In this paper we attempted to estimate the first ever timing of hantavirus diversification based on thirty five available complete genomes representing five major groups of hantaviruses and the assumption of co-speciation of hantaviruses with their respective mammal hosts. Phylogenetic analyses were used to estimate the main diversification points during hantavirus evolution in mammals while host diversification was mostly estimated from independent calibrators taken from fossil records. Our results support an earlier developed hypothesis of co-speciation of known hantaviruses with their respective mammal hosts and hence a common ancestor for all hantaviruses carried by placental mammals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Analyses of fatalities from natural catastrophes in different income groups over time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Tobias

    2017-04-01

    Identifying not only economic and insured losses but also numbers of fatalities from natural catastrophes provides new information on resilience and prevention measures in the countries affected. In this talk, we examine how fatalities from Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE database, caused by natural disasters have developed. In addition to the standard approach based on fatalities by country, we introduced a new measure, "fatalities per million inhabitants", and factored in population development over time. The World Bank definition was used to determine the wealth classification of individual countries. This methodology enables us to compare countries with different population sizes and thus produce an index for humanitarian impact. The analyses are key information on ascertaining whether prevention measures or early-warning systems have in fact reduced the number of fatalities in recent decades (1980-2016).

  10. Investigating the impact of the English health inequalities strategy: time trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, Ben; Higgerson, James; Whitehead, Margaret

    2017-07-26

    Objective  To investigate whether the English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical health inequalities, compared with trends before and after the strategy. Design  Time trend analysis. Setting  Two groups of lower tier local authorities in England. The most deprived, bottom fifth and the rest of England. Intervention  The English health inequalities strategy-a cross government strategy implemented between 1997 and 2010 to reduce health inequalities in England. Trends in geographical health inequalities were assessed before (1983-2003), during (2004-12), and after (2013-15) the strategy using segmented linear regression. Main outcome measure  Geographical health inequalities measured as the relative and absolute differences in male and female life expectancy at birth between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country. Results  Before the strategy the gap in male and female life expectancy between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country increased at a rate of 0.57 months each year (95% confidence interval 0.40 to 0.74 months) and 0.30 months each year (0.12 to 0.48 months). During the strategy period this trend reversed and the gap in life expectancy for men reduced by 0.91 months each year (0.54 to 1.27 months) and for women by 0.50 months each year (0.15 to 0.86 months). Since the end of the strategy period the inequality gap has increased again at a rate of 0.68 months each year (-0.20 to 1.56 months) for men and 0.31 months each year (-0.26 to 0.88) for women. By 2012 the gap in male life expectancy was 1.2 years smaller (95% confidence interval 0.8 to 1.5 years smaller) and the gap in female life expectancy was 0.6 years smaller (0.3 to 1.0 years smaller) than it would have been if the trends in inequalities before the strategy had continued. Conclusion  The English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical inequalities

  11. Detecting trends in forest disturbance and recovery using yearly Landsat time series: 1. LandTrendr — Temporal segmentation algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Kennedy; Zhiqiang Yang; Warren B. Cohen

    2010-01-01

    We introduce and test LandTrendr (Landsat-based detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery), a new approach to extract spectral trajectories of land surface change from yearly Landsat time-series stacks (LTS). The method brings together two themes in time-series analysis of LTS: capture of short-duration events and smoothing of long-term trends. Our strategy is...

  12. A model approach for analysing trends in energy supply and demand at country level: case study of industrial development in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miranda-da-Cruz, S.M.

    2007-01-01

    Ideally, national energy supply and demand choices would be based on comprehensive models and predictions of the energy sources, energy transformations, energy carriers and energy end-uses expected to play major roles into the foreseeable future (20-40 years). However, in many cases, the necessary detailed, high quality, consistent and timely data is not available for such comprehensive models to be constructed, in particular in large and complex developing economies expected to be major energy users in the near future. In the developing countries that are the focus of UNIDO's work, attention has been concentrated on making progress simultaneously on two fronts: (a) a dramatic decrease in energy intensity, particularly in activities linked to industrial production and (b) a major increase in the contribution of local renewable energy to limit growth in fossil fuel use. National policies need to be oriented towards a strict and strategic monitoring of the respective energy matrices with a simultaneous focus on both fronts. Robust assessments of industrial development trends throughout the whole 20-40 year transition phase are needed to achieve both objectives. Until more comprehensive energy-related models can be built up, to overcome the limited availability of data at country level it is proposed that a simple energy supply and demand model analysis consisting of three phases be used for identifying the consistency of future scenarios and corresponding policy requirements. This model analysis, which is a dynamic exercise, consists, first, of an analysis at aggregate level of the current and future national energy matrices; secondly, an analysis of perspectives for decreasing the energy intensity of the most inefficient systems or industrial sectors; and thirdly, an analysis of perspectives for increasing the supply and cost-effectiveness of sustainable energy sources. As an illustration of this model approach, the case of China is analysed with emphasis on the

  13. Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

    2018-03-01

    Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

  14. Heart rate and time-motion analyses in top junior players during basketball matches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karel Hůlka

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Basketball performance can be classified as an intermittent physical activity due to the changing situational game conditions and the number of intervening variables. It is necessary to have detailed knowledge about the performance of basketball players during a match as a background for more specific planning of the training process. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to analyse the indicators of internal and external load of basketball player’s performance during a match of U18 top men basketball players as a background for the planning of specific training processes. METHODS: Thirty-two Czech top junior basketball players (male, aged 16.88 ± 0.72 years participated in this research. The heart rate was recorded and time-motion analysis was conducted during six warm-up matches. RESULTS: The average heart rate was measured to be 167.47 ± 13.01 beats • min.–1, which corresponded to 85.06 ± 6.40% of peak heart rate. The percentages of the total time spent over and under 85% were 63.12% and 36.88%, respectively. Average distance covered was measured to be 5,880.91 ± 831.01 meters. The average work : rest ratio was 1 : 7.95 ± 1.83, ranging from 1 : 4.80 to 1 : 10.92. CONCLUSIONS: The results from these matches suggest that the exercise intensity and sprint activity observed during junior basketball are dependent on the player's position and partly on the level of the performance. The heart rate during a match was not dependent on the positions, however, time-motion analysis revealed significant differences between three basketball positions during a match. The combination of heart rate and time-motion analysis is recommended.

  15. Time course of Chinese monosyllabic spoken word recognition: evidence from ERP analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jingjing; Guo, Jingjing; Zhou, Fengying; Shu, Hua

    2011-06-01

    Evidence from event-related potential (ERP) analyses of English spoken words suggests that the time course of English word recognition in monosyllables is cumulative. Different types of phonological competitors (i.e., rhymes and cohorts) modulate the temporal grain of ERP components differentially (Desroches, Newman, & Joanisse, 2009). The time course of Chinese monosyllabic spoken word recognition could be different from that of English due to the differences in syllable structure between the two languages (e.g., lexical tones). The present study investigated the time course of Chinese monosyllabic spoken word recognition using ERPs to record brain responses online while subjects listened to spoken words. During the experiment, participants were asked to compare a target picture with a subsequent picture by judging whether or not these two pictures belonged to the same semantic category. The spoken word was presented between the two pictures, and participants were not required to respond during its presentation. We manipulated phonological competition by presenting spoken words that either matched or mismatched the target picture in one of the following four ways: onset mismatch, rime mismatch, tone mismatch, or syllable mismatch. In contrast to the English findings, our findings showed that the three partial mismatches (onset, rime, and tone mismatches) equally modulated the amplitudes and time courses of the N400 (a negative component that peaks about 400ms after the spoken word), whereas, the syllable mismatched words elicited an earlier and stronger N400 than the three partial mismatched words. The results shed light on the important role of syllable-level awareness in Chinese spoken word recognition and also imply that the recognition of Chinese monosyllabic words might rely more on global similarity of the whole syllable structure or syllable-based holistic processing rather than phonemic segment-based processing. We interpret the differences in spoken word

  16. Massive Cloud Computing Processing of P-SBAS Time Series for Displacement Analyses at Large Spatial Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casu, F.; de Luca, C.; Lanari, R.; Manunta, M.; Zinno, I.

    2016-12-01

    A methodology for computing surface deformation time series and mean velocity maps of large areas is presented. Our approach relies on the availability of a multi-temporal set of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data collected from ascending and descending orbits over an area of interest, and also permits to estimate the vertical and horizontal (East-West) displacement components of the Earth's surface. The adopted methodology is based on an advanced Cloud Computing implementation of the Differential SAR Interferometry (DInSAR) Parallel Small Baseline Subset (P-SBAS) processing chain which allows the unsupervised processing of large SAR data volumes, from the raw data (level-0) imagery up to the generation of DInSAR time series and maps. The presented solution, which is highly scalable, has been tested on the ascending and descending ENVISAT SAR archives, which have been acquired over a large area of Southern California (US) that extends for about 90.000 km2. Such an input dataset has been processed in parallel by exploiting 280 computing nodes of the Amazon Web Services Cloud environment. Moreover, to produce the final mean deformation velocity maps of the vertical and East-West displacement components of the whole investigated area, we took also advantage of the information available from external GPS measurements that permit to account for possible regional trends not easily detectable by DInSAR and to refer the P-SBAS measurements to an external geodetic datum. The presented results clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach that paves the way to the extensive use of the available ERS and ENVISAT SAR data archives. Furthermore, the proposed methodology can be particularly suitable to deal with the very huge data flow provided by the Sentinel-1 constellation, thus permitting to extend the DInSAR analyses at a nearly global scale. This work is partially supported by: the DPC-CNR agreement, the EPOS-IP project and the ESA GEP project.

  17. Cycling in São Paulo, Brazil (1997–2012: Correlates, time trends and health consequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thiago Hérick Sá

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to describe cyclists and cycling trips, and to explore correlates, time trends and health consequences of cycling in São Paulo, Brazil from 1997 to 2012. Cross-sectional analysis using repeated São Paulo Household Travel Surveys (HTS. At all time periods cycling was a minority travel mode in São Paulo (1174 people with cycling trips out of 214,719 people. Poisson regressions for individual correlates were estimated using the entire 2012 HTS sample. Men were six times more likely to cycle than women. We found rates of bicycle use rising over time among the richest quartile but total cycling rates dropped from 1997 to 2012 due to decreasing rates among the poor. Harms from air pollution would negate benefits from physical activity through cycling only at 1997 air pollution levels and at very high cycling levels (≥9 h of cycling per day. Exposure-based road injury risk decreased between 2007 and 2012, from 0.76 to 0.56 cyclist deaths per 1000 person-hours travelled. Policies to reduce spatial segregation, measures to tackle air pollution, improvements in dedicated cycling infrastructure, and integrating the bicycle with the public transport system in neighborhoods of all income levels could make cycling safer and prevent more individuals from abandoning the cycling mode in São Paulo.

  18. Analysis of the Main Factors Influencing Food Production in China Based on Time Series Trend Chart

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shuangjin; WANG; Jianying; LI

    2014-01-01

    Based on the annual sample data on food production in China since the reform and opening up,we select 8 main factors influencing the total food production( growing area,application rate of chemical fertilizer,effective irrigation area,the affected area,total machinery power,food production cost index,food production price index,financial funds for supporting agriculture,farmers and countryside),and put them into categories of material input,resources and environment,and policy factors. Using the factor analysis,we carry out the multi-angle analysis of these typical influencing factors one by one through the time series trend chart. It is found that application rate of chemical fertilizer,the growing area of food crops and drought-affected area become the key factors affecting food production. On this basis,we set forth the corresponding recommendations for improving the comprehensive food production capacity.

  19. Time trends and epidemiological patterns of perinatal lamb mortality in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmøy, Ingrid Hunter; Waage, Steinar

    2015-09-30

    Perinatal mortality is a major cause of loss in the sheep industry. Our aim was to explore time trends in crude population stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates in Norway. We used data on 6,435,715 lambs from flocks enrolled in the Norwegian Sheep Recording System (NSRS) from 2000 through 2010 for descriptive analysis of trends. Longitudinal patterns of mortality rates were compared for lambs within different levels of variables suspected to be associated with perinatal loss. There was an approximately linear increase in the annual proportion of stillborn lambs during the study period, from 3.3 % in 2000 to 4.7 % in 2010. In the same time period, average litter size of ewes in NSRS flocks increased from 2.00 to 2.19. However, a steady rise in stillbirth rate was observed within each litter size group, suggesting a gradually increasing impact on stillbirth risk of other, yet unidentified, factors. Average flock size increased during the study period. The highest stillbirth rates were found in the largest and smallest flocks. Early neonatal mortality rates (0-5 days of life) varied from year to year (minimum 2.2 %, maximum 3.2 %) and were invariably higher among triplets and quadruplets than among singletons and twins. Annual fluctuations were parallel within the various litter sizes. A significant overall decreasing trend was present within all litter sizes with the exception of singletons. Weather data for the prime lambing months (April and May) 2000-2010 indicated a relationship between low temperatures and high neonatal mortality rates. At the flock level, there was a significant positive correlation between stillbirths and early neonatal mortality rates (r = 0.13), between stillbirth rates in two consecutive years (r = 0.43) and between early neonatal mortality rates in two consecutive years (r = 0.40). The substantial increase in ovine stillbirth rate in recent years in Norway was to some extent related to a corresponding increase in the

  20. Time trends in burdens of cadmium, lead, and mercury in the population of northern Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wennberg, Maria; Lundh, Thomas; Bergdahl, Ingvar A.; Hallmans, Goeran; Jansson, Jan-Hakan; Stegmayr, Birgitta; Custodio, Hipolito M.; Skerfving, Staffan

    2006-01-01

    The time trends of exposure to heavy metals are not adequately known. This is a worldwide problem with regard to the basis for preventive actions and evaluation of their effects. This study addresses time trends for the three toxic elements cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), and lead (Pb). Concentrations in erythrocytes (Ery) were determined in a subsample of the population-based MONICA surveys from 1990, 1994, and 1999 in a total of 600 men and women aged 25-74 years. The study took place in the two northernmost counties in Sweden. To assess the effect of changes in the environment, adjustments were made for life-style factors that are determinants of exposure. Annual decreases of 5-6% were seen for Ery-Pb levels (adjusted for age and changes in alcohol intake) and Ery-Hg levels (adjusted for age and changes in fish intake). Ery-Cd levels (adjusted for age) showed a similar significant decrease in smoking men. It is concluded that for Pb and maybe also Hg the actions against pollution during recent decades have caused a rapid decrease of exposure; for Hg the decreased use of dental amalgam may also have had an influence. For Cd, the decline in Ery-Cd was seen only in smokers, indicating that Cd exposure from tobacco has decreased, while other environmental sources of Cd have not changed significantly. To further improve the health status in Sweden, it is important to decrease the pollution of Cd, and actions against smoking in the community are important

  1. HYPE: a WFD tool for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends in groundwater time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Benjamin; Croiset, Nolwenn; Laurence, Gourcy

    2014-05-01

    The Water Framework Directive 2006/11/CE (WFD) on the protection of groundwater against pollution and deterioration asks Member States to identify significant and sustained upward trends in all bodies or groups of bodies of groundwater that are characterised as being at risk in accordance with Annex II to Directive 2000/60/EC. The Directive indicates that the procedure for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends must be based on a statistical method. Moreover, for significant increases of concentrations of pollutants, trend reversals are identified as being necessary. This means to be able to identify significant trend reversals. A specific tool, named HYPE, has been developed in order to help stakeholders working on groundwater trend assessment. The R encoded tool HYPE provides statistical analysis of groundwater time series. It follows several studies on the relevancy of the use of statistical tests on groundwater data series (Lopez et al., 2011) and other case studies on the thematic (Bourgine et al., 2012). It integrates the most powerful and robust statistical tests for hydrogeological applications. HYPE is linked to the French national database on groundwater data (ADES). So monitoring data gathered by the Water Agencies can be directly processed. HYPE has two main modules: - a characterisation module, which allows to visualize time series. HYPE calculates the main statistical characteristics and provides graphical representations; - a trend module, which identifies significant breaks, trends and trend reversals in time series, providing result table and graphical representation (cf figure). Additional modules are also implemented to identify regional and seasonal trends and to sample time series in a relevant way. HYPE has been used successfully in 2012 by the French Water Agencies to satisfy requirements of the WFD, concerning characterization of groundwater bodies' qualitative status and evaluation of the risk of non-achievement of

  2. Trends in screen time on week and weekend days in a representative sample of Southern Brazil students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Adair S; Silva, Kelly S; Barbosa Filho, Valter C; Bezerra, Jorge; de Oliveira, Elusa S A; Nahas, Markus V

    2014-12-01

    Economic and technological improvements can help increase screen time use among adolescents, but evidence in developing countries is scarce. The aim of this study was to examine changes in TV watching and computer/video game use patterns on week and weekend days after a decade (2001 and 2011), among students in Santa Catarina, southern Brazil. A comparative analysis of two cross-sectional surveys that included 5 028 and 6 529 students in 2001 and 2011, respectively, aged 15-19 years. The screen time use indicators were self-reported. 95% Confidence intervals were used to compare the prevalence rates. All analyses were separated by gender. After a decade, there was a significant increase in computer/video game use. Inversely, a significant reduction in TV watching was observed, with a similar magnitude to the change in computer/video game use. The worst trends were identified on weekend days. The decrease in TV watching after a decade appears to be compensated by the increase in computer/video game use, both in boys and girls. Interventions are needed to reduce the negative impact of technological improvements in the lifestyles of young people, especially on weekend days. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Prediction of HIV-1 sensitivity to broadly neutralizing antibodies shows a trend towards resistance over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hake, Anna; Pfeifer, Nico

    2017-10-01

    Treatment with broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) has proven effective against HIV-1 infections in humanized mice, non-human primates, and humans. Due to the high mutation rate of HIV-1, resistance testing of the patient's viral strains to the bNAbs is still inevitable. So far, bNAb resistance can only be tested in expensive and time-consuming neutralization experiments. Here, we introduce well-performing computational models that predict the neutralization response of HIV-1 to bNAbs given only the envelope sequence of the virus. Using non-linear support vector machines based on a string kernel, the models learnt even the important binding sites of bNAbs with more complex epitopes, i.e., the CD4 binding site targeting bNAbs, proving thereby the biological relevance of the models. To increase the interpretability of the models, we additionally provide a new kind of motif logo for each query sequence, visualizing those residues of the test sequence that influenced the prediction outcome the most. Moreover, we predicted the neutralization sensitivity of around 34,000 HIV-1 samples from different time points to a broad range of bNAbs, enabling the first analysis of HIV resistance to bNAbs on a global scale. The analysis showed for many of the bNAbs a trend towards antibody resistance over time, which had previously only been discovered for a small non-representative subset of the global HIV-1 population.

  4. How abnormal is binge eating? 18-Year time trends in population prevalence and burden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchison, D; Touyz, S; González-Chica, D A; Stocks, N; Hay, P

    2017-08-01

    Although findings suggest that binge eating is becoming increasingly normative, the 'clinical significance' of this behaviour at a population level remains uncertain. We aimed to assess the time trends in binge-eating prevalence and burden over 18 years. Six cross-sectional face-to-face surveys of the Australian adult population were conducted in 1998, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2014, and 2015 (N total = 15 126). Data were collected on demographics, 3-month prevalence of objective binge eating (OBE), health-related quality of life, days out of role, and distress related to OBE. The prevalence of OBE increased six-fold from 1998 (2.7%) to 2015 (13.0%). Health-related quality of life associated with OBE improved from 1998 to 2015, where it more closely approximated population norms. Days out of role remained higher among participants who reported OBE, although decreased over time. Half of participants who reported weekly (56.6%) and twice-weekly (47.1%) OBE reported that they were not distressed by this behaviour. However, the presence of distress related to OBE in 2015 was associated with greater health-related quality-of-life impairment. As the prevalence of binge eating increases over time, associated disability has been decreasing. Implications for the diagnosis of disorders associated with binge eating are discussed. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Incidence of infective endocarditis in England, 2000-13: a secular trend, interrupted time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayer, Mark J; Jones, Simon; Prendergast, Bernard; Baddour, Larry M; Lockhart, Peter B; Thornhill, Martin H

    2015-03-28

    Antibiotic prophylaxis given before invasive dental procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis has historically been the focus of infective endocarditis prevention. Recent changes in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines in the USA and Europe have substantially reduced the number of patients for whom antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended. In the UK, guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) recommended complete cessation of antibiotic prophylaxis for prevention of infective endocarditis in March, 2008. We aimed to investigate changes in the prescribing of antibiotic prophylaxis and the incidence of infective endocarditis since the introduction of these guidelines. We did a retrospective secular trend study, analysed as an interrupted time series, to investigate the effect of antibiotic prophylaxis versus no prophylaxis on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England. We analysed data for the prescription of antibiotic prophylaxis from Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2013, and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of infective endocarditis from Jan 1, 2000, to March 31, 2013. We compared the incidence of infective endocarditis before and after the introduction of the NICE guidelines using segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time series. Prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis for the prevention of infective endocarditis fell substantially after introduction of the NICE guidance (mean 10,900 prescriptions per month [Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2008] vs 2236 prescriptions per month [April 1, 2008, to March 31, 2013], pinfective endocarditis increased significantly above the projected historical trend, by 0·11 cases per 10 million people per month (95% CI 0·05-0·16, pinfective endocarditis was significant for both individuals at high risk of infective endocarditis and those at lower risk. Although our data do not establish a causal association, prescriptions

  6. Trends in mammography over time for women with and without chronic disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kurtz, Stephen G; Rao, Sowmya R

    2015-07-01

    Women with disabilities often receive mammograms at lower rates than do nondisabled women, although this disparity varies by disability type and severity. Given the implementation of disability civil rights laws in the early 1990s, we examined whether disability disparities in mammogram use have diminished over time. We analyzed National Health Interview Survey responses of civilian, noninstitutionalized United States female residents 50 to 74 years old from selected years between 1998 and 2010. We identified seven chronic disability types using self-reported functional impairments, activity/participation limitations, and expected duration. We conducted bivariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses examining associations of self-reported mammogram use within the previous two years with sociodemographic factors and disability. Most chronic disability rates rose over time. The most common disability was movement difficulties, with rates increasing from 35.6% (1998) to 39.8% (2010). Mammogram rates for all women remained relatively stable over time, ranging from 72% to 75%. Bivariable analyses generally found statistically significantly lower mammogram rates for women with disability versus nondisabled women. Over time, disparities grew significantly between women with any basic action difficulty or complex activity limitation and nondisabled women (pdisability. Little has changed since 1998 in mammogram rates for women with versus without disabilities. Women with certain disabilities continue to experience disparities in mammography testing.

  7. Time-trends and causes of infant, neonatal and postneonatal mortality in Mexico, 1980-1990

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUSAN VANDALE

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. This article analyzes the time-trends and causes of infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality in Mexico during the 1980’s. Material and methods. Data on infant deaths came from yearly tabulations (1980 to 1990 published by the Mexican government. Time-trends of mortality rates were determined by simple linear regression models. The parallelism test was performed for evaluating similarities in trends in neonatal and postneonatal mortality rates by causes. Results. During the 1980’s, infant mortality rates in Mexico declined from 40.4 to 31.1/1 000 (ß= -0.791. Postneonatal mortality rates showed a strong decrease (ß= -0.892, while neonatal mortality rates were almost stationary (ß= 0.089. Significant rate decreases were observed for Intestinal infections, Pneumonia and influenza and all other causes while Certain perinatal problems, Congenital defects and Nutritional deficiencies increased. No changes were observed in Acute respiratory infections. The neonatal proportional mortality showed an incremental trend accounting for 37.6% in 1980 and ascending to 48.8% in 1990 of the mortality in the first year of life. Conclusions.This analysis indicates that the reduction in infant mortality in Mexico during the 1980’s was due to declining postneonatal mortality while neonatal mortality rates remain almost unchanged.Objetivo. Analizar las tendencias seculares de las tasas de mortalidad infantil (TMI neonatal (TMN y posneonatal (TMP en México de 1980-1990. Material y métodos. La información estudiada fue proporcionada por el Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática. Las tendencias de los indicadores fueron determinadas mediante modelos de regresión lineal y se efectuaron pruebas de paralelismo para evaluar la semejanza en pendientes de TMN y TMP por causas. Resultados. Las TMI se redujeron de 40.4 a 31.1/1 000, (ß= -0.791. Las TMP mostraron un decremento significativo (ß= -0.892, mientras que las TMN

  8. Ethnic differences in the time trend of female breast cancer incidence: Singapore, 1968 – 2002

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tan Chuen-Seng

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background From 1968 to 2002, Singapore experienced an almost three-fold increase in breast cancer incidence. This increase appeared to be different across the three main ethnic groups: Chinese, Malays and Indians. This paper used age-period-cohort (APC modelling, to determine the effects of age at diagnosis, calendar period, and birth cohort on breast cancer incidence for each ethnic group. Methods This study included all breast cancer cases (n = 15,269 in the three ethnic groups, reported to the Singapore Cancer Registry from 1968 to 2002 between the ages 25 to 79. Age-specific fertility rates from the Department of Statistics were used to explore the role of fertility. Results In the 1970s, Indian women had the highest age-standardized breast cancer but by the mid-1980s the highest rates were seen among the Chinese. Remarkable differences were seen in the age-specific incidence rates by ethnic groups. After age 49, the incidence rates for the Chinese and Malays leveled off whereas it continued to rise in the Indians. While our analyses provided some evidence that an age-drift model described the trend seen in the Indians, age-period-cohort model and age-cohort model had the best fit for the Chinese and Malays aged 25 to 79 respectively. Overall, Chinese and Malay women born in later cohorts were at increased risk of developing breast cancer relative to their counterparts in the earlier cohorts. The three ethnic groups experienced similar changes in their fertility in the 1970s, which likely explained much of the increase in their breast cancer incidence but not the ethnic differences. There was a stronger inverse association between total fertility rate and pre-menopausal breast cancer incidence in the Chinese and Malays than the Indians. Conclusion The observed dissimilarity among ethnic groups suggests ethnic differences in exposure or response to certain risk factors. It is likely that longer and subtler differences in

  9. Secular Trends on Birth Parameters, Growth, and Pubertal Timing in Girls with Turner Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joachim Woelfle

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundWhether children with chromosomal disorders of growth and puberty are affected by secular trends (STs as observed in the general population remains unanswered, but this question has relevance for expectations of spontaneous development and treatment responses.ObjectivesThe aim of the study was to evaluate STs in birth parameters, growth, and pubertal development in girls with Turner syndrome (TS.Study designRetrospective analysis of KIGS data (Pfizer International Growth Database. We included all TS patients who entered KIGS between 1987 and 2012 and were born from 1975 to 2004, who were prepubertal and growth treatment naïve at first entry (total number: 7,219. Pretreatment height and ages at the start of treatment were compared across 5-year birth year groups, with subgroup analyses stratified by induced or spontaneous puberty start.ResultsWe observed significant STs across the birth year groups for birth weight [+0.18 SD score (SDS, p < 0.001], pretreatment height at mean age 8 years (+0.73 SDS, p < 0.001, height at the start of growth hormone (GH therapy (+0.38 SDS, p < 0.001 and start of puberty (+0.42 SDS, p < 0.001. Spontaneous puberty onset increased from 15 to 30% (p < 0.001. Mean age at the start of GH treatment decreased from 10.8 to 7.4 years (−3.4 years; p < 0.001, and substantial declines were seen in ages at onset of spontaneous and induced puberty (−2.0 years; p < 0.001 and menarche (−2.1 years; p < 0.001.ConclusionEnvironmental changes leading to increased height and earlier and also more common, spontaneous puberty are applicable in TS as in normal girls. In addition, greater awareness for TS may underlie trends to earlier start of GH therapy and induction of puberty at a more physiological age.

  10. Worldwide incidence of malaria in 2009: estimates, time trends, and a critique of methods.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard E Cibulskis

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 6, including estimates of, and time trends in, the number of malaria cases, has relied on risk maps constructed from surveys of parasite prevalence, and on routine case reports compiled by health ministries. Here we present a critique of both methods, illustrated with national incidence estimates for 2009. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compiled information on the number of cases reported by National Malaria Control Programs in 99 countries with ongoing malaria transmission. For 71 countries we estimated the total incidence of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax by adjusting the number of reported cases using data on reporting completeness, the proportion of suspects that are parasite-positive, the proportion of confirmed cases due to each Plasmodium species, and the extent to which patients use public sector health facilities. All four factors varied markedly among countries and regions. For 28 African countries with less reliable routine surveillance data, we estimated the number of cases from model-based methods that link measures of malaria transmission with case incidence. In 2009, 98% of cases were due to P. falciparum in Africa and 65% in other regions. There were an estimated 225 million malaria cases (5th-95th centiles, 146-316 million worldwide, 176 (110-248 million in the African region, and 49 (36-68 million elsewhere. Our estimates are lower than other published figures, especially survey-based estimates for non-African countries. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of malaria incidence derived from routine surveillance data were typically lower than those derived from surveys of parasite prevalence. Carefully interpreted surveillance data can be used to monitor malaria trends in response to control efforts, and to highlight areas where malaria programs and health information systems need to be strengthened. As malaria incidence declines around the world, evaluation of control efforts

  11. Examining time trends in the Oldowan technology at Beds I and II, Olduvai Gorge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimura, Yuki

    2002-09-01

    The lithic analysis of the Bed I and II assemblages from Olduvai Gorge reveals both static and dynamic time trends in early hominids' technology from 1.8 to 1.2 m.y.a. The Bed I Oldowan (1.87-1.75 m.y.a.) is characterized by the least effort strategy in terms of raw material exploitation and tool production. The inclusion of new raw material, chert, for toolmaking in the following Developed Oldowan A (DOA, 1.65-1.53 m.y.a.) facilitated more distinctive and variable flaking strategies depending on the kind of raw materials. The unique characters of DOA are explainable by this raw material factor, rather than technological development of hominids. The disappearance of chert in the subsequent Developed Oldowan B and Acheulian (1.53-1.2 m.y.a.) necessitated a shift in tool production strategy more similar to that of Bed I Oldowan than DOA. However, the evidence suggests that Bed II hominids might have been more skillful toolmakers, intensive tool-users, and engaged in more active transport of stone tools than the Bed I predecessors. Koobi Fora hominids maintained a more static tool-using behavior than their Olduvai counterparts due mainly to a stable supply of raw materials. They differed from Olduvai hominids in terms of less battering of cores, consistent transport behavior, and few productions of side-struck flakes, indicating a regional variation of toolmaking and using practice. However, they shared with Olduvai hominids a temporal trend toward the production of larger flakes from larger cores after 1.6 m.y.a. Increased intake of animal resources and the expansion of ranging area of Homo ergaster would have led to the development of technological organization. Technological changes in the Oldowan industry are attested at Olduvai Gorge, Koobi Fora, and Sterkfontein, suggesting that it was a pan-African synchronous phenomenon, beginning at 1.5 m.y.a.

  12. Through the sands of time: Beach litter trends from nine cleaned north cornish beaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, Andrew J R; Porter, Adam; Hembrow, Neil; Sharpe, Jolyon; Galloway, Tamara S; Lewis, Ceri

    2017-09-01

    Marine litter and its accumulation on beaches is an issue of major current concern due to its significant environmental and economic impacts. Yet our understanding of spatio-temporal trends in beach litter and the drivers of these trends are currently limited by the availability of robust long term data sets. Here we present a unique data set collected systematically once a month, every month over a six year period for nine beaches along the North Coast of Cornwall, U.K. to investigate the key drivers of beach litter in the Bude, Padstow and Porthcothan areas. Overall, an average of 0.02 litter items m -2 per month were collected during the six year study, with Bude beaches (Summerleaze, Crooklets and Widemouth) the most impacted (0.03 ± 0.004 litter items m -2 per month). The amount of litter collected each month decreased by 18% and 71% respectively for Padstow (Polzeath, Trevone and Harlyn) and Bude areas over the 6 years, possibly related to the regular cleaning, however litter increased by 120% despite this monthly cleaning effort on the Padstow area beaches. Importantly, at all nine beaches the litter was dominated by small, fragmented plastic pieces and rope fibres, which account for 32% and 17% of all litter items collected, respectively. The weathered nature of these plastics indicates they have been in the marine environment for an extended period of time. So, whilst classifying the original source of these plastics is not possible, it can be concluded they are not the result of recent public littering. This data highlights both the extent of the marine litter problem and that current efforts to reduce littering by beach users will only tackle a fraction of this litter. Such information is vital for developing effective management strategies for beach and marine litter at both regional and global levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Global cardiovascular research output, citations, and collaborations: a time-trend, bibliometric analysis (1999-2008).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffman, Mark D; Baldridge, Abigail; Bloomfield, Gerald S; Colantonio, Lisandro D; Prabhakaran, Poornima; Ajay, Vamadevan S; Suh, Sarah; Lewison, Grant; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

    2013-01-01

    Health research is one mechanism to improve population-level health and should generally match the health needs of populations. However, there have been limited data to assess the trends in national-level cardiovascular research output, even as cardiovascular disease [CVD] has become the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. We performed a time trends analysis of cardiovascular research publications (1999-2008) downloaded from Web of Knowledge using a iteratively-tested cardiovascular bibliometric filter with >90% precision and recall. We evaluated cardiovascular research publications, five-year running actual citation indices [ACIs], and degree of international collaboration measured through the ratio of the fractional count of addresses from one country against all addresses for each publication. Global cardiovascular publication volume increased from 40 661 publications in 1999 to 55 284 publications in 2008, which represents a 36% increase. The proportion of cardiovascular publications from high-income, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [OECD] countries declined from 93% to 84% of the total share over the study period. High-income, OECD countries generally had higher fractional counts, which suggest less international collaboration, than lower income countries from 1999-2008. There was an inverse relationship between cardiovascular publications and age-standardized CVD morbidity and mortality rates, but a direct, curvilinear relationship between cardiovascular publications and Human Development Index from 1999-2008. Cardiovascular health research output has increased substantially in the past decade, with a greater share of citations being published from low- and middle-income countries. However, low- and middle-income countries with the higher burdens of cardiovascular disease continue to have lower research output than high-income countries, and thus require targeted research investments to improve cardiovascular health.

  14. 45-Year trends in women's use of time and household management energy expenditure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Archer

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: Relationships between socio-environmental factors and obesity are poorly understood due to a dearth of longitudinal population-level research. The objective of this analysis was to examine 45-year trends in time-use, household management (HM and energy expenditure in women. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Using national time-use data from women 19-64 years of age, we quantified time allocation and household management energy expenditure (HMEE from 1965 to 2010. HM was defined as the sum of time spent in food preparation, post-meal cleaning activities (e.g., dish-washing, clothing maintenance (e.g., laundry, and general housework. HMEE was calculated using body weights from national surveys and metabolic equivalents. RESULTS: The time allocated to HM by women (19-64 yrs decreased from 25.7 hr/week in 1965 to 13.3 hr/week in 2010 (P<0.001, with non-employed women decreasing by 16.6 hr/week and employed women by 6.7 hr/week (P<0.001. HMEE for non-employed women decreased 42% from 25.1 Mj/week (6004 kilocalories per week in 1965 to 14.6 Mj/week (3486 kcal/week in 2010, a decrement of 10.5 Mj/week or 1.5 Mj/day (2518 kcal/week; 360 kcal/day (P<0.001, whereas employed women demonstrated a 30% decrement of 3.9 Mj/week, 0.55 Mj/day (923 kcal/week, 132 kcal/day (P<0.001. The time women spent in screen-based media use increased from 8.3 hr/week in 1965 to 16.5 hr/week in 2010 (P<0.001, with non-employed women increasing 9.6 hr/week and employed women 7.5 hr/week (P<0.001. CONCLUSIONS: From 1965 to 2010, there was a large and significant decrease in the time allocated to HM. By 2010, women allocated 25% more time to screen-based media use than HM (i.e., cooking, cleaning, and laundry combined. The reallocation of time from active pursuits (i.e., housework to sedentary pastimes (e.g., watching TV has important health consequences. These results suggest that the decrement in HMEE may have contributed to the increasing prevalence of obesity in women during

  15. Motivational power of future time perspective: Meta-analyses in education, work, and health.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucija Andre

    Full Text Available Future time perspective (FTP may predict individual attitudes and behaviors. However, FTP research includes different FTP conceptualizations and outcomes which hinder generalizing its findings. To solve the inconsistencies in FTP research and generalize the magnitude of FTP as a driver of motivation and behavior, we conducted the first systematical synthesis of FTP relationships in three crucial life domains. Our meta-analyses of FTP studies in education (k = 28, work (k = 17, and health (k = 32 involved N = 31,558 participants, and used a conceptual model for grouping FTP constructs. To address different outcome types, we applied the Theory of Planned Behavior when coding the studies. FTP relationships with outcomes were small-to-medium, were generalizable across domains, and were strongest when the FTP construct included a mixture of cognition, behavioral intention, and affect and, in education, when the FTP measure was domain specific rather than general. There were cross-cultural differences in FTP-outcome relationships. The strength of the FTP-outcome types relationship varied for attitudes, perceived behavioral control, behavioral intention, and behaviors. The lowest effect sizes were found for FTP predicting actual behaviors in education, work, and health and between FTP and health attitudes. Theoretical implications of the findings and future research directions are discussed.

  16. Motivational power of future time perspective: Meta-analyses in education, work, and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andre, Lucija; van Vianen, Annelies E M; Peetsma, Thea T D; Oort, Frans J

    2018-01-01

    Future time perspective (FTP) may predict individual attitudes and behaviors. However, FTP research includes different FTP conceptualizations and outcomes which hinder generalizing its findings. To solve the inconsistencies in FTP research and generalize the magnitude of FTP as a driver of motivation and behavior, we conducted the first systematical synthesis of FTP relationships in three crucial life domains. Our meta-analyses of FTP studies in education (k = 28), work (k = 17), and health (k = 32) involved N = 31,558 participants, and used a conceptual model for grouping FTP constructs. To address different outcome types, we applied the Theory of Planned Behavior when coding the studies. FTP relationships with outcomes were small-to-medium, were generalizable across domains, and were strongest when the FTP construct included a mixture of cognition, behavioral intention, and affect and, in education, when the FTP measure was domain specific rather than general. There were cross-cultural differences in FTP-outcome relationships. The strength of the FTP-outcome types relationship varied for attitudes, perceived behavioral control, behavioral intention, and behaviors. The lowest effect sizes were found for FTP predicting actual behaviors in education, work, and health and between FTP and health attitudes. Theoretical implications of the findings and future research directions are discussed.

  17. Motivational power of future time perspective: Meta-analyses in education, work, and health

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    Future time perspective (FTP) may predict individual attitudes and behaviors. However, FTP research includes different FTP conceptualizations and outcomes which hinder generalizing its findings. To solve the inconsistencies in FTP research and generalize the magnitude of FTP as a driver of motivation and behavior, we conducted the first systematical synthesis of FTP relationships in three crucial life domains. Our meta-analyses of FTP studies in education (k = 28), work (k = 17), and health (k = 32) involved N = 31,558 participants, and used a conceptual model for grouping FTP constructs. To address different outcome types, we applied the Theory of Planned Behavior when coding the studies. FTP relationships with outcomes were small-to-medium, were generalizable across domains, and were strongest when the FTP construct included a mixture of cognition, behavioral intention, and affect and, in education, when the FTP measure was domain specific rather than general. There were cross-cultural differences in FTP-outcome relationships. The strength of the FTP-outcome types relationship varied for attitudes, perceived behavioral control, behavioral intention, and behaviors. The lowest effect sizes were found for FTP predicting actual behaviors in education, work, and health and between FTP and health attitudes. Theoretical implications of the findings and future research directions are discussed. PMID:29364917

  18. Real-time detection and characterization of nuclear explosion using broadband analyses of regional seismic stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prastowo, T.; Madlazim

    2018-01-01

    This preliminary study aims to propose a new method of real-time detection and characterization of nuclear explosions by analyzing broadband seismic waveforms acquired from a network of regional seismic stations. Signal identification generated by a nuclear test was differentiated from natural sources of either earthquakes or other natural seismo-tectonic events by verifying crucial parameters, namely source depth, type of first motion, and P-wave domination of the broadband seismic wavesunder consideration. We examined and analyzed a recently hypothetical nuclear test performed by the North Koreangovernment that occurred on September 3, 2017 as a vital point to study. From spectral analyses, we found that the source of corresponding signals associated with detonations of the latest underground nuclear test was at a much shallower depth below the surface relatively compared with that of natural earthquakes, the suspected nuclear explosions produced compressional waves with radially directed outward from the source for their first motions, and the waves were only dominated by P-components. The results are then discussed in the context of potential uses of the proposed methodology for human-induced disaster early warning system and/or the need of rapid response purposes for minimizing the disaster risks.

  19. The NOVA project: maximizing beam time efficiency through synergistic analyses of SRμCT data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmelzle, Sebastian; Heethoff, Michael; Heuveline, Vincent; Lösel, Philipp; Becker, Jürgen; Beckmann, Felix; Schluenzen, Frank; Hammel, Jörg U.; Kopmann, Andreas; Mexner, Wolfgang; Vogelgesang, Matthias; Jerome, Nicholas Tan; Betz, Oliver; Beutel, Rolf; Wipfler, Benjamin; Blanke, Alexander; Harzsch, Steffen; Hörnig, Marie; Baumbach, Tilo; van de Kamp, Thomas

    2017-09-01

    Beamtime and resulting SRμCT data are a valuable resource for researchers of a broad scientific community in life sciences. Most research groups, however, are only interested in a specific organ and use only a fraction of their data. The rest of the data usually remains untapped. By using a new collaborative approach, the NOVA project (Network for Online Visualization and synergistic Analysis of tomographic data) aims to demonstrate, that more efficient use of the valuable beam time is possible by coordinated research on different organ systems. The biological partners in the project cover different scientific aspects and thus serve as model community for the collaborative approach. As proof of principle, different aspects of insect head morphology will be investigated (e.g., biomechanics of the mouthparts, and neurobiology with the topology of sensory areas). This effort is accomplished by development of advanced analysis tools for the ever-increasing quantity of tomographic datasets. In the preceding project ASTOR, we already successfully demonstrated considerable progress in semi-automatic segmentation and classification of internal structures. Further improvement of these methods is essential for an efficient use of beam time and will be refined in the current NOVAproject. Significant enhancements are also planned at PETRA III beamline p05 to provide all possible contrast modalities in x-ray imaging optimized to biological samples, on the reconstruction algorithms, and the tools for subsequent analyses and management of the data. All improvements made on key technologies within this project will in the long-term be equally beneficial for all users of tomography instrumentations.

  20. Pushover, Response Spectrum and Time History Analyses of Safe Rooms in a Poor Performance Masonry Building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazloom, M.

    2008-01-01

    The idea of safe room has been developed for decreasing the earthquake casualties in masonry buildings. The information obtained from the previous ground motions occurring in seismic zones expresses the lack of enough safety of these buildings against earthquakes. For this reason, an attempt has been made to create some safe areas inside the existing masonry buildings, which are called safe rooms. The practical method for making these safe areas is to install some prefabricated steel frames in some parts of the existing structure. These frames do not carry any service loads before an earthquake. However, if a devastating earthquake happens and the load bearing walls of the building are destroyed, some parts of the floors, which are in the safe areas, will fall on the roof of the installed frames and the occupants who have sheltered there will survive. This paper presents the performance of these frames located in a destroying three storey masonry building with favorable conclusions. In fact, the experimental pushover diagram of the safe room located at the ground-floor level of this building is compared with the analytical results and it is concluded that pushover analysis is a good method for seismic performance evaluation of safe rooms. For time history analysis the 1940 El Centro, the 2003 Bam, and the 1990 Manjil earthquake records with the maximum peak accelerations of 0.35g were utilized. Also the design spectrum of Iranian Standard No. 2800-05 for the ground kind 2 is used for response spectrum analysis. The results of time history, response spectrum and pushover analyses show that the strength and displacement capacity of the steel frames are adequate to accommodate the distortions generated by seismic loads and aftershocks properly

  1. Time trends of esophageal and gastric cancer mortality in China, 1991?2009: an age-period-cohort analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Mengmeng; Wan, Xia; Wang, Yanhong; Sun, Yuanyuan; Yang, Gonghuan; Wang, Li

    2017-01-01

    Esophageal and gastric cancers share some risk factors. This study aimed to compare the long-term trends in mortality rates of esophageal and gastric cancers in China to provide evidence for cancer prevention and control. Mortality data were derived from 103 continuous points of the Disease Surveillance Points system during 1991?2009, stratified by gender and urban-rural locations. Age-period-cohort models were used to disentangle the time trends of esophageal and gastric cancer mortality. Th...

  2. [Time trend study of firearm mortality in Argentina, 1980-2012].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinelli, Hugo; Santoro, Adrián; Guevel, Carlos; Alazraqui, Marcio

    2015-06-01

    This work analyzes the impact of firearm mortality between 1980 and 2012 in Argentina. For this purpose a descriptive epidemiological time trend study was carried out including the following variables: sex, age group, intentionality and jurisdiction. Data was obtained from the Office of Health Statistics and Information of the Argentine Ministry of Health. A total of 87,671 deaths due to firearms were discovered, of which 85.7% occurred in men. The highest mortality rate due to firearms corresponded to the year 2002, reaching 21.2 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The age group concentrating the largest number of deaths due to firearms was that of 20-29 years, accounting for 25.6% of all deaths. The highest adjusted rates corresponded to the years 2000-2002, with values of 10.0 to 11.6 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. This time period coincides with the institutional-economic crisis the country experienced. The province of Buenos Aires was the place of residence of 49.1% of the deceased. In the discussion, political-economic and ideological-cultural dimensions of the relations among firearms, violence, science and society are considered.

  3. Trends over time in the incidence of congenital anophthalmia, microphthalmia and orbital malformation in England: database study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dharmasena, Aruna; Keenan, Tiarnan; Goldacre, Raph; Hall, Nick; Goldacre, Michael J

    2017-06-01

    To study trends over time in the incidence of congenital anophthalmia, microphthalmia and orbital malformations in England, along with changes in hospital admission rates for these conditions. Using English National Hospital Episode Statistics (1999-2011), the annual rate of hospital admissions related to anophthalmia, microphthalmia and congenital malformations of orbit/lacrimal apparatus was calculated per 100 000 infants. The records were person-linked, which enabled patients' 'first record' rates to be calculated as proxies for incidence. Similar analyses on pre-1999 datasets were also undertaken for microphthalmia. There was no systematic increase or decrease over time in the incidence of these conditions, but there was some fluctuation from year to year. The incidence of congenital anophthalmia ranged from 2.4 (95% CI 1.3 to 4.0) per 100 000 infants in 1999 to 0.4 (0 to 1.3) in 2011. The annual incidence of congenital microphthalmia was 10.8 (8.2 to 13.5) in 1999 and 10.0 (7.6 to 12.4) in 2011. The annual incidence of congenital orbital/lacrimal malformations was 0.5 (0 to 1.1) in 1999 and 0.7 (0 to 1.4) in 2011. Including multiple admissions per person, admission rates for microphthalmia showed a linear increase over time from 1999. The earlier data for microphthalmia indicated an increase in admission rates, but no change in incidence, from 1971 to 2011. The incidence of these conditions has remained stable in England in recent years. Although the incidence of microphthalmia was stable, hospital admission rates for it increased over time reflecting an increase in multiple admissions per affected person. These data may be useful for planning service provision. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  4. The demise of multidrug-resistant HIV-1: the national time trend in Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vercauteren, Jurgen; Theys, Kristof; Carvalho, Ana Patricia; Valadas, Emília; Duque, Luis Miguel; Teófilo, Eugénio; Faria, Telo; Faria, Domitília; Vera, José; Aguas, Maria João; Peres, Susana; Mansinho, Kamal; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Camacho, Ricardo Jorge

    2013-04-01

    Despite a decreasing mortality and morbidity in treated HIV-1 patients, highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) can still fail due to the development of drug resistance. Especially, multidrug-resistant viruses pose a threat to efficient therapy. We studied the changing prevalence of multidrug resistance (MDR) over time in a cohort of HIV-1-infected patients in Portugal. We used data of 8065 HIV-1-infected patients followed from July 2001 up to April 2012 in 22 hospitals located in Portugal. MDR at a specific date of sampling was defined as no more than one fully active drug (excluding integrase and entry inhibitors) at that time authorized by the Portuguese National Authority of Medicines and Health Products (INFARMED), as interpreted with the Rega algorithm version 8.0.2. A generalized linear mixed model was used to study the time trend of the prevalence of MDR. We observed a statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of MDR over the last decade, from 6.9% (95% CI: 5.7-8.4) in 2001-03, 6.0% (95% CI: 4.9-7.2) in 2003-05, 3.7% (95% CI: 2.8-4.8) in 2005-07 and 1.6% (95% CI: 1.1-2.2) in 2007-09 down to 0.6% (95% CI: 0.3-0.9) in 2009-12 [OR=0.80 (95% CI: 0.75-0.86); P<0.001]. In July 2011 the last new case of MDR was seen. The prevalence of multidrug-resistant HIV-1 is decreasing over time in Portugal, reflecting the increasing efficiency of HAART and the availability of new drugs. Therefore, in designing a new drug, safety and practical aspects, e.g. less toxicity and ease of use, may need more attention than focusing mainly on efficacy against resistant strains.

  5. Insights from the analyses of risk-informed extension of diesel generator allowed outage time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, J.C.; He Wei

    2005-01-01

    In recent years, many U.S. nuclear plants have applied and received approval for the risk-informed extension of the Allowed Outage Time (AOT) for Emergency Diesel Generators (EDGs). These risk-informed applications need to meet the regulatory guidance on the risk criteria. This paper discusses in detail insights derived from the risk-informed analyses performed to support these applications. The risk criteria on ΔCDF/ΔLERF evaluate the increase in average risk by extending the AOT for EDGs, induced primarily by an increase in EDG maintenance unavailability due to the introduction of additional EDG preventive maintenance. By performing this preventive maintenance work on-line, the outage duration can be shortened. With proper refinement of the risk model, most plants can meet the ΔCDF/ΔLERF criteria for extending the EDGAOT from, for example, 3 days to 14 days. The key areas for model enhancements to meet these criteria include offsite/onsite power recovery, LERF modeling, etc. The most important LERF model enhancements consist of refinement of the penetrations included in the containment isolation model for the consideration of a large release, and taking credit for operator vessel depressurization during the time period between core damage and vessel failure. A recent study showed that although the frequency of loss of offsite power (LOSP) has decreased, the duration of offsite power recovery has actually increased. However, many of the events used to derive this conclusion may not be applicable to PRAs. One approach develops the offsite power non-recovery factor by first screening the LOSP events for applicability to the plant being analyzed, power operation, and LOSP initiating event, then using the remaining events data for the derivation based on the fraction of events with recovery duration longer than the time window allowed. The risk criteria on ICCDP/ICLERP examine the increase in risk from the average CDF/LERF, based on the increased maintenance

  6. Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

    2015-01-01

    Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

  7. Assessment of vegetation trends in drylands from time series of earth observation data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fensholt, R.; Horion, S.; Tagesson, T.; Ehammer, A.; Grogan, K.; Tian, F.; Huber, S.; Verbesselt, J.; Prince, S.D.; Tucker, C.J.; Rasmussen, K.

    2015-01-01

    This chapter summarizes approaches to the detection of dryland vegetation change and methods for observing spatio-temporal trends from space. An overview of suitable long-term Earth Observation (EO) based datasets for assessment of global dryland vegetation trends is provided and a status map of

  8. Trends of phytoplankton characteristics and their communities in pre- and post-liming time in Lake Orta (1984-1998

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierisa PANZANI

    2001-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper is an assessment of the changing properties of Lake Orta phytoplankton in the period 1984-1998, which includes the large-scale liming carried out in the lake in 1989 and 1990. The phytoplankton is analysed first in its general properties (abundance, biovolume, chlorophyll-a concentration, average cell size, diversity by means of time courses of the mentioned variables based on monthly data through the entire period, and by correlations between the same variables. Moreover, through clustering techniques, the evolution of the species composition has been studied, showing the gradual decrease of chlorophytes after the liming and the noticeable increase of the diatom population, both as biovolume and diversity. Although the assemblage of the dominant species still mirrors the presence of some residual toxic compounds into the lake water, in the most recent period the evolution of the algal populations showed a clear trend towards a species assemblage more similar to those observed in the other deep italian subalpine lakes. After the improving of the chemical environment, the main abiotic factor that in the next years could play a major role in modifying the species assemblage is probably the phosphorus supply, whose in-lake concentration is low, despite the high annual load from the basin. A better understanding of the mechanisms underlying the phosphorus dynamics represent the basis to make reliable hypotheses about the future evolution of the phytoplankton assemblage.

  9. Modeling pollen time series using seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOESS smoothing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojo, Jesús; Rivero, Rosario; Romero-Morte, Jorge; Fernández-González, Federico; Pérez-Badia, Rosa

    2017-02-01

    Analysis of airborne pollen concentrations provides valuable information on plant phenology and is thus a useful tool in agriculture-for predicting harvests in crops such as the olive and for deciding when to apply phytosanitary treatments-as well as in medicine and the environmental sciences. Variations in airborne pollen concentrations, moreover, are indicators of changing plant life cycles. By modeling pollen time series, we can not only identify the variables influencing pollen levels but also predict future pollen concentrations. In this study, airborne pollen time series were modeled using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOcally wEighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS) smoothing (STL). The data series-daily Poaceae pollen concentrations over the period 2006-2014-was broken up into seasonal and residual (stochastic) components. The seasonal component was compared with data on Poaceae flowering phenology obtained by field sampling. Residuals were fitted to a model generated from daily temperature and rainfall values, and daily pollen concentrations, using partial least squares regression (PLSR). This method was then applied to predict daily pollen concentrations for 2014 (independent validation data) using results for the seasonal component of the time series and estimates of the residual component for the period 2006-2013. Correlation between predicted and observed values was r = 0.79 (correlation coefficient) for the pre-peak period (i.e., the period prior to the peak pollen concentration) and r = 0.63 for the post-peak period. Separate analysis of each of the components of the pollen data series enables the sources of variability to be identified more accurately than by analysis of the original non-decomposed data series, and for this reason, this procedure has proved to be a suitable technique for analyzing the main environmental factors influencing airborne pollen concentrations.

  10. Time trends in leisure time physical activity and physical fitness in the elderly: five-year follow-up of the Spanish National Health Survey (2006-2011).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casado-Pérez, Carmen; Hernández-Barrera, Valentín; Jiménez-García, Rodrigo; Fernández-de-las-Peñas, Cesar; Carrasco-Garrido, Pilar; López-de-Andrés, Ana; Jimenez-Trujillo, Ma Isabel; Palacios-Ceña, Domingo

    2015-04-01

    To estimate the trends in the practice of leisure time physical activity, walking up 10 steps, and walking for 1h, during the years 2006-2011, in elderly Spanish people. Observational study, retrospective analysis of Spanish National Health Surveys. We analysed data collected from the Spanish National Health Surveys conducted in 2006 (n=30,072) and 2011 (n=21,007), through self-reported information. The number of subjects aged ≥65 years included in the current study was n=5756 in 2006 (19.14%) and n=4617 in 2011 (21.97%). We included responses from adults aged 65 years and older. The main variables included leisure-time physical activity, walking up 10 steps, and walking for 1h. We analysed socio-demographic characteristics, individuals' self-rated health status, lifestyle habits, co-morbid conditions and disability using multivariable logistic regression models. The total number of subjects was 10,373 (6076 women, 4297 men). The probability of self-reported capacity was significantly higher in 2006 than in 2011 for leisure-time physical activity, walking up 10 steps, and walking for 1h for both sexes (women: OR 2.20, 95%IC 1.91-5.55; OR 2.50, 95%IC 1.99-3.14; OR 1.04, 95%IC 1.01-1.07; men: OR 2.20, 95%IC 1.91-2.55; OR 2.01, 95%IC 1.40-2.89; OR 1.05, 95%IC 1.0-1.1) respectively. Both sexes were associated with a significantly lower probability of performing leisure-time physical activity, walking up 10 steps, and walking for 1h. Additionally, those over 80 years of age, on average, showed a poor or very poor perception of their health and presented with some type of disability. A decrease in the proportion of respondents who self-reported undertaking leisure-time physical activity, walking up 10 steps, and walking for 1h was observed in the Spanish population of over 65 years between 2006 and 2011. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Doctors' enjoyment of their work and satisfaction with time available for leisure: UK time trend questionnaire-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surman, Geraldine; Lambert, Trevor W; Goldacre, Michael

    2016-04-01

    Doctors' job satisfaction is important to the health service to ensure commitment, effective training, service provision and retention. Job satisfaction matters to doctors for their personal happiness, fulfilment, service to patients and duty to employers. Monitoring job satisfaction trends informs workforce planning. We surveyed UK-trained doctors up to 5 years after graduation for six graduation year cohorts: 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2012. Doctors scored their job enjoyment (Enjoyment) and satisfaction with time outside work (Leisure) on a scale from 1 (lowest enjoyment/satisfaction) to 10 (highest). Overall, 47% had a high level of Enjoyment (scores 8-10) 1 year after graduation and 56% after 5 years. For Leisure, the corresponding figures were 19% and 37% at 1 and 5 years, respectively. For Leisure at 1 year, high scores were given by about 10% in the 1990s, rising to about 25% in the mid-2000s. Low scores (1-3) for Enjoyment were given by 15% of qualifiers of 1996, falling to 5% by 2008; corresponding figures for Leisure were 42% and 19%. At 5 years, the corresponding figures were 6% and 4%, and 23% and 17%. Enjoyment and Leisure were scored higher by general practitioners than doctors in other specialties. Both measures varied little by sex, ethnicity or medical school attended. Scores for Enjoyment were generally high; those for Leisure were lower. Policy initiatives should address why this aspect of satisfaction is low, particularly in the first year after graduation but also among hospital doctors 5 years after graduation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  12. Modelling BSE trend over time in Europe, a risk assessment perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Christian; Sala, Carole; Ru, Giuseppe; de Koeijer, Aline; Sheridan, Hazel; Saegerman, Claude; Selhorst, Thomas; Arnold, Mark; Polak, Miroslaw P; Calavas, Didier

    2010-06-01

    BSE is a zoonotic disease that caused the emergence of variant Creuzfeldt-Jakob disease in the mid 1990s. The trend of the BSE epidemic in seven European countries was assessed and compared, using Age-Period-Cohort and Reproduction Ratio modelling applied to surveillance data 2001-2007. A strong decline in BSE risk was observed for all countries that applied control measures during the 1990s, starting at different points in time in the different countries. Results were compared with the type and date of the BSE control measures implemented between 1990 and 2001 in each country. Results show that a ban on the feeding of meat and bone meal (MBM) to cattle alone was not sufficient to eliminate BSE. The fading out of the epidemic started shortly after the complementary measures targeted at controlling the risk in MBM. Given the long incubation period, it is still too early to estimate the additional effect of the ban on the feeding of animal protein to all farm animals that started in 2001. These results provide new insights in the risk assessment of BSE for cattle and Humans, which will especially be useful in the context of possible relaxing BSE surveillance and control measures.

  13. Different time trend and management of esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma in three Asian countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatta, Waku; Tong, Daniel; Lee, Yeong Yeh; Ichihara, Shin; Uedo, Noriya; Gotoda, Takuji

    2017-04-01

    Esophagogastric junction (EGJ) adenocarcinoma has been on the increase in Western countries. However, in Asian countries, data on the incidence of EGJ adenocarcinoma are evidently lacking. In the present review, we focus on the current clinical situation of EGJ adenocarcinoma in three Asian countries: Japan, Hong Kong, and Malaysia. The incidence of EGJ adenocarcinoma has been reported to be gradually increasing in Malaysia and Japan, whereas it has stabilized in Hong Kong. However, the number of cases in these countries is comparatively low compared with Western countries. A reason for the reported difference in the incidence and time trend of EGJ adenocarcinoma among the three countries may be explained by two distinct etiologies: one arising from chronic gastritis similar to distal gastric cancer, and the other related to gastroesophageal reflux disease similar to esophageal adenocarcinoma including Barrett's adenocarcinoma. This review also shows that there are several concerns in clinical practice for EGJ adenocarcinoma. In Hong Kong and Malaysia, many EGJ adenocarcinomas have been detected at a stage not amenable to endoscopic resection. In Japan, histological curability criteria for endoscopic resection cases have not been established. We suggest that an international collaborative study using the same definition of EGJ adenocarcinoma may be helpful not only for clarifying the characteristics of these cancers but also for improving the clinical outcome of these patients. © 2017 The Authors. Digestive Endoscopy © 2017 Japan Gastroenterological Endoscopy Society.

  14. Incidence, time trends and regional variation of childhood leukaemia in Germany and Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaatsch, P.; Mergenthaler, A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents data on the German and Europe-wide incidence, time trends and regional variations of childhood leukaemia. Data were provided by the German Childhood Cancer Registry (GCCR), a population-based cancer registry recording all cases of malignant diseases in children under 15 y of age residing in Germany and by the Automated Childhood Cancer Information System (ACCIS) co-ordinated at International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, that combines and evaluates data from several European population-based cancer registries. The incidence of leukaemia (44.0 per million) has increased in Europe as well as in Germany in the last decades (0.6% annually on average). Germany shows no systematic aggregation of regions with low or high cancer incidence in terms of regional clustering. Incidence rates differ between European regions with the highest rates in Northern Europe (48.0 per million) and the lowest rates in Eastern Europe (39.1). Altogether, the results from ACCIS and the GCCR show good agreement. (authors)

  15. Time trends in minimum mortality temperatures in Castile-La Mancha (Central Spain): 1975-2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miron, Isidro J.; Criado-Alvarez, Juan José; Diaz, Julio; Linares, Cristina; Mayoral, Sheila; Montero, Juan Carlos

    2008-03-01

    The relationship between air temperature and human mortality is described as non-linear, with mortality tending to rise in response to increasingly hot or cold ambient temperatures from a given minimum mortality or optimal comfort temperature, which varies from some areas to others according to their climatic and socio-demographic characteristics. Changes in these characteristics within any specific region could modify this relationship. This study sought to examine the time trend in the maximum temperature of minimum organic-cause mortality in Castile-La Mancha, from 1975 to 2003. The analysis was performed by using daily series of maximum temperatures and organic-cause mortality rates grouped into three decades (1975-1984, 1985-1994, 1995-2003) to compare confidence intervals ( p ARIMA models (Box-Jenkins) and cross-correlation functions (CCF) at seven lags. We observed a significant decrease in comfort temperature (from 34.2°C to 27.8°C) between the first two decades in the Province of Toledo, along with a growing number of significant lags in the summer CFF (1, 3 and 5, respectively). The fall in comfort temperature is attributable to the increase in the effects of heat on mortality, due, in all likelihood, to the percentage increase in the elderly population.

  16. Mapping Mountain Pine Beetle Mortality through Growth Trend Analysis of Time-Series Landsat Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Liang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Disturbances are key processes in the carbon cycle of forests and other ecosystems. In recent decades, mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae outbreaks have become more frequent and extensive in western North America. Remote sensing has the ability to fill the data gaps of long-term infestation monitoring, but the elimination of observational noise and attributing changes quantitatively are two main challenges in its effective application. Here, we present a forest growth trend analysis method that integrates Landsat temporal trajectories and decision tree techniques to derive annual forest disturbance maps over an 11-year period. The temporal trajectory component successfully captures the disturbance events as represented by spectral segments, whereas decision tree modeling efficiently recognizes and attributes events based upon the characteristics of the segments. Validated against a point set sampled across a gradient of MPB mortality, 86.74% to 94.00% overall accuracy was achieved with small variability in accuracy among years. In contrast, the overall accuracies of single-date classifications ranged from 37.20% to 75.20% and only become comparable with our approach when the training sample size was increased at least four-fold. This demonstrates that the advantages of this time series work flow exist in its small training sample size requirement. The easily understandable, interpretable and modifiable characteristics of our approach suggest that it could be applicable to other ecoregions.

  17. Complementary feeding patterns in the first year of life in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: time trends from 1998 to 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Alves de Oliveira

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to analyze time trends in complementary feeding practices among children under one year of age in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from 1998 to 2008. Based on comparable questions on food consumption in five surveys conducted in representative randomized samples of children in 1998 (n = 3,762, 2000 (n = 3,670, 2003 (n = 4,305, 2006 (n = 3,686, and 2008 (n = 2,621, 16 complementary feeding indicators were constructed. The percentage frequency of all indicators was estimated for each year of the study. Linear trend analyses were also conducted by means of multivariate regression models. All indicators of early complementary feeding decreased from 1998 to 2008. In the 6-11.9 month age group, there was a significant downward trend in the proportion of children receiving food with adequate consistency for their age, consumption of iron-rich foods, and overall adequacy of the diet. A significant upward trend in fruit consumption was observed. There was a decrease in the early complementary feeding, and generally a worsening of complementary feeding practices in children aged 6-11.9 months in Rio de Janeiro during the period studied.

  18. Gender-related difference, geographical variation and time trend in dietary cadmium intake in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, T.; Shimbo, S.; Nakatsuka, H.; Koizumi, A.; Higashikawa, K.; Matsuda-Inoguchi, N.; Ikeda, M.

    2004-01-01

    Objectives: The present analysis was initiated to examine possible gender-dependency, geographic variation, and time-dependent changes in dietary intake of cadmium (Cd-F) among general populations in Cd-non-polluted areas in Japan. The role of rice as Cd-F source was also within the scope. Methods: Two databases on Cd and nutritional analyses were re-visited. Both databases were established through collection of 24-h food duplicate portion samples from residents in areas with no known Cd pollution, and contained information on Cd and energy contents in the duplicate portion, together with daily rice consumption, the gender, the age and the location of the residence of each sample donor. The first and the second databases were established through surveys in the years around 1980 on 564 cases and around 1995 on 702 cases, respectively. The two databases were combined for evaluation by multiple regression (MRA) and other analyses. Results: The analyses showed that men tended to take more Cd than women, more clearly so in the 1980 survey than in the 1995 survey. When Cd-F in the 1995 survey was compared with that in the 1980 survey, a substantial decrease was observed, e.g. by 30% (from 37.5 to 26.2 μg/day) in case of women. Cd-F values varied subject to the survey sites in a wide range (e.g. from 20 to 86 μg/day among women in the 1980 survey). In MRA with Cd-F as a dependent variable and survey sites and food intake factors (e.g. rice and energy intakes) as independent variables, the survey sites could explain more than 53% and 35% of total variation in Cd-F in the 1980 and 1995 surveys, respectively. Rice consumption was also influential to Cd-F in both surveys with partial correlation coefficients of 0.36 and 0.21, respectively, the influence being stronger in the 1980 survey than in the 1995 survey. A significant correlation was detected between the 1980 and 1995 survey results both in Cd-F and in rice consumption. Conclusion: Geographic and gender

  19. Time trends of cancer mortality among elderly in Italy, 1970–2008: an observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bidoli Ettore

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aging of the Italian population will unavoidably lead to a growing number of persons diagnosed and living with cancer. A comprehensive description of the burden of cancer mortality among Italian elderly (65-84 years of age in the last four decades has not been carried out yet. Cancer mortality rates were used to describe time trends between 1970-2008. Methods Mortality counts, provided by the Italian National Institute of Statistics, were grouped according to data availability: in quinquennia from 1970-74 through 1995-99, and in 2000-03 and 2006-08 groups. Age-standardized rates (world population were computed by calendar periods while annual percent changes (APCs were computed for elderly and middle aged (35-64 years people for the period 1995-2008. Results The number of cancer deaths in elderly nearly doubled between 1970-74 (31,400 deaths/year in men, and 24,000 in women and 2006-08 (63,000 deaths/year in men, and 42,000 in women. Overall cancer mortality rates peaked during the quinquennia 1985-89 and 1990-94 (about 1,500/100,000 in men and 680 in women and declined thereafter. Throughout 1995-2008 cancer mortality rates decreased by -1.6%/year in men and -0.9%/year in women. These decreases were mainly driven by cancers of the stomach, bladder, prostate, and lung (APC = -3.3%, -2.7%, -2.5%, -2.2%, respectively in men, and by cancers of the stomach, bladder, and breast (APC = -3.5%, -1.9%, -1.1%, respectively in women. Conversely, increases in mortality rates between 1995 and 2008 were recorded for lung cancer (APC = +0.6% in women, cutaneous melanoma (APC = +1.7% in men, and pancreatic cancer (APC = +0.6% in men and +0.9% in women. Conclusions Overall favorable trends in cancer mortality were observed among Italian elderly between 1995 and 2008. Early diagnosis, improved efficacy of anti-cancer treatments and management of comorbidities are the most likely explanations of these positive

  20. Through the sands of time: Beach litter trends from nine cleaned north cornish beaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watts, Andrew J.R.; Porter, Adam; Hembrow, Neil; Sharpe, Jolyon; Galloway, Tamara S.; Lewis, Ceri

    2017-01-01

    Marine litter and its accumulation on beaches is an issue of major current concern due to its significant environmental and economic impacts. Yet our understanding of spatio-temporal trends in beach litter and the drivers of these trends are currently limited by the availability of robust long term data sets. Here we present a unique data set collected systematically once a month, every month over a six year period for nine beaches along the North Coast of Cornwall, U.K. to investigate the key drivers of beach litter in the Bude, Padstow and Porthcothan areas. Overall, an average of 0.02 litter items m −2 per month were collected during the six year study, with Bude beaches (Summerleaze, Crooklets and Widemouth) the most impacted (0.03 ± 0.004 litter items m −2 per month). The amount of litter collected each month decreased by 18% and 71% respectively for Padstow (Polzeath, Trevone and Harlyn) and Bude areas over the 6 years, possibly related to the regular cleaning, however litter increased by 120% despite this monthly cleaning effort on the Padstow area beaches. Importantly, at all nine beaches the litter was dominated by small, fragmented plastic pieces and rope fibres, which account for 32% and 17% of all litter items collected, respectively. The weathered nature of these plastics indicates they have been in the marine environment for an extended period of time. So, whilst classifying the original source of these plastics is not possible, it can be concluded they are not the result of recent public littering. This data highlights both the extent of the marine litter problem and that current efforts to reduce littering by beach users will only tackle a fraction of this litter. Such information is vital for developing effective management strategies for beach and marine litter at both regional and global levels. - Highlights: • Unique and systemically collected beach clean data set from 9 beaches over 6 years. • The most abundant litter items were

  1. Time trend and risk factors of avascular bone necrosis in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tse, Sau Mei; Mok, Chi Chiu

    2017-06-01

    Objectives The objective of this paper is to study the time trend and risk factors of avascular bone necrosis (AVN) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods Between 1999 and 2014, patients who fulfilled the ACR criteria for SLE and developed symptomatic AVN were identified from our cohort database and compared with those without AVN, matched for age, sex and SLE duration. The standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of AVN in different SLE age groups were calculated from data derived from our hospital registry and population census. Risk factors for AVN were studied by logistic regression, adjusted by a propensity score for ever use of high-dose glucocorticoids (GCs). Results Fifty-five SLE patients with AVN and 220 SLE patients without AVN were studied. There were 104 AVN sites involved, with the hips being most commonly affected (82%). The point prevalence of AVN in our SLE cohort was 7.4%. The SIRs of AVN in our SLE patients were 131 (86.6-199; p < 0.001) and 56.0 (34.3-91.4; p < 0.001), respectively, in the periods 1995-2004 and 2005-2014. In both decades, the age-stratified SIR was highest in the youngest age group (<19 years). AVN patients were more likely to be treated with GCs and had received a significantly higher cumulative dose of prednisolone since SLE diagnosis (16.5 vs 10.7 grams; p = 0.001). The SLE damage score (excluding AVN) was also significantly higher in AVN than non-AVN patients (2.5 vs 0.4; p < 0.001). Logistic regression revealed that preceding septic arthritis of the involved joint (odds ratio (OR) 17.7 (1.5-205); p = 0.02), cushingoid body habitus (OR 2.4 (1.1-5.2); p = 0.04), LDL cholesterol level (OR 1.4 (1.0-1.9); p = 0.04), maximum daily dose of prednisolone (OR 6.4 (1.2-33.3); p = 0.03) and cumulative dose of prednisolone received in the first six months of the first lupus flare (OR 1.3 (1.0-1.8); p = 0.046) were independently associated with AVN. Conclusions AVN is prevalent in SLE

  2. Time trends in organ donation after neurologic determination of death: a cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Andreas H.; Baht, Ryan; Doig, Christopher J.

    2017-01-01

    Background: The cause of brain injury may influence the number of organs that can be procured and transplanted with donation following neurologic determination of death. We investigated whether the distribution of causes responsible for neurologic death has changed over time and, if so, whether this has had an impact on organ quality, transplantation rates and recipient outcomes. Methods: We performed a cohort study involving consecutive brain-dead organ donors in southern Alberta between 2003 and 2014. For each donor, we determined last available measures of organ injury and number of organs transplanted, and compared these variables for various causes of neurologic death. We compared trends to national Canadian data for 2000-2013 (2000-2011 for Quebec). Results: There were 226 brain-dead organ donors over the study period, of whom 100 (44.2%) had anoxic brain injury, 63 (27.9%) had stroke, and 51 (22.6%) had traumatic brain injury. The relative proportion of donors with traumatic brain injury decreased over time (> 30% in 2003-2005 v. 6%-23% in 2012-2014) (p = 0.004), whereas that with anoxic brain injury increased (14%-37% v. 46%-80%, respectively) (p organs transplanted per donor was 3.6 with anoxic brain injury versus 4.5 with traumatic brain injury or stroke (p = 0.002). Interpretation: Anoxic brain injury has become a leading cause of organ donation after neurologic determination of death in Canada. Organs from donors with anoxic brain injury have a greater degree of injury, and fewer are transplanted. These findings have implications for availability of organs for transplantation in patients with end-stage organ failure. PMID:28401114

  3. Is there a time trend in medical practice variations?: a review of the literature and an critical analysis of theoretical approaches.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenewegen, P.P.; Westert, G.P.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this study was to review the research evidence for a decreasing time trend in medical practice variation and to contribute to our theoretical understanding of trends in medical practice variations. We searched Pubmed for articles reporting on time trends in medical practice variations.

  4. Health promotion in primary and secondary schools in Denmark: time trends and associations with schools' and students' characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Kirsten; Krølner, Rikke; Mortensen, Laust Hvas; Jørgensen, Marie Birk; Diderichsen, Finn

    2015-02-07

    Schools are important arenas for interventions among children as health promoting initiatives in childhood is expected to have substantial influence on health and well-being in adulthood. In countries with compulsory school attention, all children could potentially benefit from health promotion at the school level regardless of socioeconomic status or other background factors. The first aim was to elucidate time trends in the number and types of school health promoting activities by describing the number and type of health promoting activities in primary and secondary schools in Denmark. The second aim was to investigate which characteristics of schools and students that are associated with participation in many (≥3) versus few (0-2) health promoting activities during the preceding 2-3 years. We used cross-sectional data from the 2006- and 2010-survey of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study. The headmasters answered questions about the school's participation in health promoting activities and about school size, proportion of ethnic minorities, school facilities available for health promoting activities, competing problems and resources at the school and in the neighborhood. Students provided information about their health-related behavior and exposure to bullying which was aggregated to the school level. A total of 74 schools were available for analyses in 2006 and 69 in 2010. We used chi-square test, t-test, and binary logistic regression to analyze time trends and differences between schools engaging in many versus few health promoting activities. The percentage of schools participating in ≥3 health promoting activities was 63% in 2006 and 61% in 2010. Also the mean number of health promoting activities was similar (3.14 vs. 3.07). The activities most frequently targeted physical activity (73% and 85%) and bullying (78% and 67%). Schools' participation in anti-smoking activities was significantly higher in 2006 compared with 2010 (46% vs. 29

  5. Time Trends and Educational Inequalities in Out-of-Hospital Coronary Deaths in Norway 1995-2009

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sulo, Enxhela; Nygård, Ottar; Vollset, Stein Emil

    2017-01-01

    using Poisson regression analysis with year as the independent, continuous variable. Information on the highest achieved education was obtained from The National Education Database and classified as primary (up to 10 years of compulsory education), secondary (high school or vocational school......BACKGROUND: Recent time trends and educational gradients characterizing out-of-hospital coronary deaths (OHCD) are poorly described. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified all deaths from coronary heart disease occurring outside the hospital in Norway during 1995 to 2009. Time trends were explored......), or tertiary (college/university). Educational gradients in OHCD were explored using Poisson regression, stratified by sex and age (

  6. The demise of multidrug-resistant HIV-1: the national time trend in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vercauteren, Jurgen; Theys, Kristof; Carvalho, Ana Patricia; Valadas, Emília; Duque, Luis Miguel; Teófilo, Eugénio; Faria, Telo; Faria, Domitília; Vera, José; Águas, Maria João; Peres, Susana; Mansinho, Kamal; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Camacho, Ricardo Jorge; Mansinho, Kamal; Cláudia Miranda, Ana; Aldir, Isabel; Ventura, Fernando; Nina, Jaime; Borges, Fernando; Valadas, Emília; Doroana, Manuela; Antunes, Francisco; João Aleixo, Maria; João Águas, Maria; Botas, Júlio; Branco, Teresa; Vera, José; Vaz Pinto, Inês; Poças, José; Sá, Joana; Duque, Luis; Diniz, António; Mineiro, Ana; Gomes, Flora; Santos, Carlos; Faria, Domitília; Fonseca, Paula; Proença, Paula; Tavares, Luís; Guerreiro, Cristina; Narciso, Jorge; Faria, Telo; Teófilo, Eugénio; Pinheiro, Sofia; Germano, Isabel; Caixas, Umbelina; Faria, Nancy; Paula Reis, Ana; Bentes Jesus, Margarida; Amaro, Graça; Roxo, Fausto; Abreu, Ricardo; Neves, Isabel

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Despite a decreasing mortality and morbidity in treated HIV-1 patients, highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) can still fail due to the development of drug resistance. Especially, multidrug-resistant viruses pose a threat to efficient therapy. We studied the changing prevalence of multidrug resistance (MDR) over time in a cohort of HIV-1-infected patients in Portugal. Patients and methods We used data of 8065 HIV-1-infected patients followed from July 2001 up to April 2012 in 22 hospitals located in Portugal. MDR at a specific date of sampling was defined as no more than one fully active drug (excluding integrase and entry inhibitors) at that time authorized by the Portuguese National Authority of Medicines and Health Products (INFARMED), as interpreted with the Rega algorithm version 8.0.2. A generalized linear mixed model was used to study the time trend of the prevalence of MDR. Results We observed a statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of MDR over the last decade, from 6.9% (95% CI: 5.7–8.4) in 2001–03, 6.0% (95% CI: 4.9–7.2) in 2003–05, 3.7% (95% CI: 2.8–4.8) in 2005–07 and 1.6% (95% CI: 1.1–2.2) in 2007–09 down to 0.6% (95% CI: 0.3–0.9) in 2009–12 [OR = 0.80 (95% CI: 0.75–0.86); P < 0.001]. In July 2011 the last new case of MDR was seen. Conclusions The prevalence of multidrug-resistant HIV-1 is decreasing over time in Portugal, reflecting the increasing efficiency of HAART and the availability of new drugs. Therefore, in designing a new drug, safety and practical aspects, e.g. less toxicity and ease of use, may need more attention than focusing mainly on efficacy against resistant strains. PMID:23228933

  7. Body-size trends of the extinct giant shark Carcharocles megalodon: a deep-time perspective on marine apex predators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimiento, Catalina; Balk, Meghan A

    2015-06-01

    The extinct shark Carcharocles megalodon is one of the largest marine apex predators ever to exist. Nonetheless, little is known about its body-size variations through time and space. Here, we studied the body-size trends of C. megalodon through its temporal and geographic range to better understand its ecology and evolution. Given that this species was the last of the megatooth lineage, a group of species that shows a purported size increase through time, we hypothesized that C. megalodon also displayed this trend, increasing in size over time and reaching its largest size prior to extinction. We found that C. megalodon body-size distribution was left-skewed (suggesting a long-term selective pressure favoring larger individuals), and presented significant geographic variation (possibly as a result of the heterogeneous ecological constraints of this cosmopolitan species) over geologic time. Finally, we found that stasis was the general mode of size evolution of C. megalodon (i.e., no net changes over time), contrasting with the trends of the megatooth lineage and our hypothesis. Given that C. megalodon is a relatively long-lived species with a widely distributed fossil record, we further used this study system to provide a deep-time perspective to the understanding of the body-size trends of marine apex predators. For instance, our results suggest that (1) a selective pressure in predatory sharks for consuming a broader range of prey may favor larger individuals and produce left-skewed distributions on a geologic time scale; (2) body-size variations in cosmopolitan apex marine predators may depend on their interactions with geographically discrete communities; and (3) the inherent characteristics of shark species can produce stable sizes over geologic time, regardless of the size trends of their lineages.

  8. Time-trends, Predictors and Outcome of Emergency Department Utilization for Gout: A Nationwide U.S. Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Jasvinder A.; Yu, Shaohua

    2016-01-01

    Objective To assess gout-related emergency department (ED) utilization/charges and discharge disposition. Methods We used the U.S. National ED Sample (NEDS) data to examine the time-trends in total ED visits and charges and ED-related hospitalizations with gout as the primary diagnosis. We assessed multivariable-adjusted predictors of ED charges and hospitalization for gout-related visits using the 2012 NEDS data. Results There were 180,789, 201,044 and 205,152 ED visits in years 2009, 2010 and 2012 with gout as the primary diagnosis, with total ED charges of $195, $239 and $287 million, respectively; these accounted for 0.14-0.16% of all ED visits. Mean/median 2012 ED charges/visit were $1,398/$956. Of all gout-related ED visits, 7.7% were admitted to the hospital in 2012. Mean/median length of hospital stay was 3.9/2.6 days and mean/median inpatient charge/admission was $22,066/$15,912 in 2012. In multivariable-adjusted analyses, older age, female gender, highest income quartile, being uninsured, metropolitan residence, Western U.S. hospital location, heart disease, renal failure, congestive heart failure (CHF), hypertension, diabetes, osteoarthritis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were associated with higher ED charges. Older age, Northeast location, Metropolitan teaching hospital, higher income quartile, heart disease, renal failure, CHF, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, diabetes, COPD, and osteoarthritis were associated with higher odds where as self-pay insurance status was associated with lower odds of hospitalization following an ED visit for gout. Conclusions Absolute ED utilization and charges for gout increased over time, but relative utilization remained stable. Modifiable comorbidity factors associated with higher gout-related utilization should be targeted to reduce morbidity and healthcare utilization. PMID:27134260

  9. Rate and Time Trend of Perinatal, Infant, Maternal Mortality, Natality and Natural Population Growth in Kosovo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azemi, Mehmedali; Gashi, Sanije; Berisha, Majlinda; Kolgeci, Selim; Ismaili-Jaha, Vlora

    2012-01-01

    Aim: The aim of work has been the presentation of the rate and time trends of some indicators of the heath condition of mothers and children in Kosovo: fetal mortality, early neonatal mortality, perinatal mortality, infant mortality, natality, natural growth of population etc. The treated patients were the newborn and infants in the post neonatal period, women during their pregnancy and those 42 days before and after the delivery. Methods: The data were taken from: register of the patients treated in the Pediatric Clinic of Prishtina, World Health Organization, Mother and Child Health Care, Reproductive Health Care, Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kosovo, Statistical Department of Kosovo, the National Institute of Public Health and several academic texts in the field of pediatrics. Some indicators were analyzed in a period between year 1945-2010 and 1950-2010, whereas some others were analyzed in a time period between year 2000 and 2011. Results: The perinatal mortality rate in 2000 was 29.1‰, whereas in 2011 it was 18.7‰. The fetal mortality rate was 14.5‰ during the year 2000, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰, in 2000 the early neonatal mortality was 14.8‰, in 2011 it was 7.5‰. The infant mortality in Kosovo was 164‰ in 1950, whereas in 2010 it was 20.5‰. The most frequent causes of infant mortality have been: lower respiratory tract infections, acute infective diarrhea, perinatal causes, congenital malformations and unclassified conditions. Maternal death rate varied during this time period. Maternal death in 2000 was 23 whereas in 2010 only two cases were reported. Regarding the natality, in 1950 it reached 46.1 ‰, whereas in 2010 it reached 14‰, natural growth of population rate in Kosovo was 29.1‰ in 1950, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰. Conclusion: Perinatal mortality rate in Kosovo is still high in comparison with other European countries (Turkey and Kyrgyzstan have the highest perinatal mortality rate), even though it is in a

  10. Subgroup analyses in confirmatory clinical trials: time to be specific about their purposes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tanniou, J.; Tweel, I. van der; Teerenstra, S.; Roes, K.C.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: It is well recognized that treatment effects may not be homogeneous across the study population. Subgroup analyses constitute a fundamental step in the assessment of evidence from confirmatory (Phase III) clinical trials, where conclusions for the overall study population might not hold.

  11. Time Trends in Murray's Psychogenic Needs over Three Decades in Swedish 75-Year-Olds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billstedt, Eva; Waern, Margda; Falk, Hanna; Duberstein, Paul; Östling, Svante; Hällström, Tore; Skoog, Ingmar

    2017-01-01

    While time trends in personality traits have been suggested in younger cohorts, little is known regarding this issue in older adults. To test for birth cohort changes in psychogenic needs according to Murray's theory of personality in two birth cohorts of 75-year-olds born 1901-1902 and 1930. Two population-based birth cohorts were examined at the age of 75 years in 1976-1977 and in 2005-2006. Psychogenic needs according to Murray were measured with the Cesarec-Marke Personality Schedule (CMPS), a Swedish version of the Edwards Personal Preference Schedule. Scores on the CMPS subscales (achievement, affiliation, aggression, defence of status, guilt feelings, dominance, exhibition, autonomy, nurturance, order, succorance, and acquiescence) were compared between cohorts. Achievement, exhibition, dominance, aggression, affiliation, and succorance scores were higher, and order and acquiescence scores lower, in the more recent birth cohort of 75-year-olds. Women scored lower than men on exhibition and dominance, and higher on defence of status, guilt feelings, affiliation, nurturance, and succorance. Interaction effects between cohort and sex were found for achievement (women scored lower than men in 1976-1977 but not in 2005-2006), order (the lower scores in 2005-2006 were more accentuated among men), and acquiescence (increased in men and decreased in women). The later-born birth cohort scored higher on self-centred traits, such as more dominant, competitive, and exhibitive traits as well as the need to be taken care of and have friends around, but it scored lower on the need for order. The gap between men and women regarding achievement decreased, possibly reflecting women's more prominent role in society. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  12. Time Trends and Policy Gaps: The Case of Alcohol Misuse Among Adolescents in Lebanon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghandour, Lilian; Afifi, Rima; Fares, Sonia; El Salibi, Noura; Rady, Alissar

    2015-01-01

    Monitoring studies are crucial for informing and reforming local policies. Using the Lebanon 2005 and 2011 Global School-based Student Health Surveys (GSHS), alcohol time trends were described, policy gaps were identified, and harm reduction policy recommendations were made. In 2005 and 2011, 100 (n = 5109 students) and 44 (n = 2784 students) middle schools were surveyed, respectively. Self-reported cross-sectional data on alcohol use among 7-9th graders in private and public schools was collected including 30-day prevalence, lifetime drunkenness, alcohol-related problems, and sources of alcohol. In 2011, the majority (87%) had alcohol before turning 14. Between 2005 and 2011, past 30-day alcohol use had increased by 40% and lifetime drunkenness by 50% in the total sample (122% among females with a narrowing in the gender gap). Drinking was regular for more than a third of the past 30-day drinkers (drank two or more drinks on the days they drank). Male adolescents were more likely to obtain alcohol from "stores" or "through their friends" whereas females' main source was their "family." One in twenty reported experiencing alcohol-related problems (e.g., getting into fights with family/friends and skipping school). Conclusion/Importance: Evidence-informed policy implications include enforcing a minimum legal drinking age, regulating alcohol advertising, and marketing particularly those targeting youth and women, and ensuring the availability of youth-friendly services. Public messages to increase awareness among all stakeholders including youth, their parents, and larger community are also needed.

  13. Childhood cancer survival in Switzerland (1976-2013): Time-trends and predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schindler, Matthias; Belle, Fabiën N; Grotzer, Michael A; von der Weid, Nicolas X; Kuehni, Claudia E

    2017-01-01

    Population-based studies on childhood cancer survival are key to monitor progress against cancer and to detect potential differences between regions and other subgroups in the population. We investigated time trends and factors associated with childhood cancer survival on a national level in Switzerland, from 1976 to 2013. We extracted data from the population-based Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry of 5,776 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer from 1985 to 2014 in Switzerland. We calculated age-adjusted 5-year survival, defined the annual reduction in risk of death (ARR), and explored associations of survival with clinical and demographic factors. Overall, 5-year survival improved significantly, from 64% in 1976-1983 to 88% in 2004-2013. ARR over the whole period was 4% for all diagnostic groups, greatest for Hodgkin lymphomas (8%), ependymomas (6%), Burkitt's lymphomas (6%) and germ cell tumours (6%). Children treated in hospitals without specialised paediatric cancer centre for leukaemia (HR 12.9), lymphoma (HR 5.0) and neuroblastoma (HR 3.7) were at higher risk of death. In French-speaking Switzerland, risk of death was lower for lymphoma (HR 0.6), CNS tumours (HR 0.7) and neuroblastoma (HR 0.5). Children with migration background had a higher risk of death from all tumours except bone tumours. Childhood cancer survival significantly improved from 1976 to 2013, but there is room for further improvement. Survival rates varied by type of clinical treatment, language region and nationality. All paediatric cancer patients should be referred to a specialised paediatric cancer centre. Further research is needed to intervene and completely eliminate inequalities in survival. © 2016 UICC.

  14. Incidence and time trends of Herpes zoster in rheumatoid arthritis: a population-based cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veetil, Bharath Manu Akkara; Myasoedova, Elena; Matteson, Eric L.; Gabriel, Sherine E.; Green, Abigail B.; Crowson, Cynthia S.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To determine the incidence, time trends, risk factors and severity of herpes zoster (HZ) in a population-based incidence cohort of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) compared to a group of individuals without RA from the same population. Methods All residents of Olmsted County, MN who first fulfilled 1987 American College of Rheumatology criteria for RA between 1/1/1980 and 12/31/2007 and a cohort of similar residents without RA were assembled and followed by retrospective chart review until death, migration, or 12/31/2008. Results There was no difference in the presence of HZ prior to RA incidence/index date between the cohorts (p=0.85). During follow-up 84 patients with RA (rate: 12.1 per 1000 person-years) and 44 subjects without RA (rate: 5.4 per 1000 person-years) developed HZ. Patients with RA were more likely to develop HZ than those without RA (hazard ratio: 2.4; 95% confidence interval: 1.7, 3.5). Patients diagnosed with RA in 1995–2007 had a higher likelihood of developing HZ than those diagnosed in 1980–1994. Erosive disease, previous joint surgery, use of hydroxychloroquine and corticosteroids were significantly associated with the development of HZ in RA, while the use of methotrexate or biologic agents was not. Complications of HZ occurred at a similar rate in both cohorts. Conclusion The incidence of HZ is increased in RA and has risen in recent years. The increasing incidence of HZ in more recent years is also noted in the general population. RA disease severity is associated with development of HZ. PMID:23281295

  15. Strategically Timed Preventive Education and Media Strategies Reduce Seasonal Trends in Adolescent Conception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gauster, A; Waddington, A; Jamieson, M A

    2015-08-01

    This study sought to analyze the effect of strategically timed local preventive education on reducing teen conception rates during known seasonal peaks in March and April. All teen conceptions (age ≤ 19) from March and April 2010, 2011, and 2012 were identified using medical records data. Teen conceptions occurring in January 2010, 2011, and 2012 were also identified to control for any new trends in the community. A city of 160,000 with 1 tertiary care centre. Pregnant adolescents (age ≤ 19). During the month of February 2012, preventive education and media awareness strategies were aimed at parents, teachers, and teens. Adolescent conceptions in March and April 2012. Conception rates in teens ≤18 years old were significantly reduced in March and April 2012 compared to March and April 2010 and 2011 (RR = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.32 - 0.88, P = .0132). There was an increase in conceptions in March and April 2012 compared to 2010 and 2011 among 19-year-olds (RR = 1.57, 95% CI = 0.84-2.9, P = .1500). Effect modification revealed our ≤18-year-old group and our 19-year-old group were distinct groups with different risk estimates (P = .0075). Educational sessions were poorly attended and contraception clinic volume was static. We propose increased parental supervision in response to media reminders as a possible explanation for the reduction in adolescent conceptions (≤18 years old) seen in March 2012. Copyright © 2015 North American Society for Pediatric and Adolescent Gynecology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machiwal, Deepesh; Gupta, Ankit; Jha, Madan Kumar; Kamble, Trupti

    2018-04-01

    This study investigated trends in 35 years (1979-2013) temperature (maximum, Tmax and minimum, Tmin) and rainfall at annual and seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter) scales for 31 grid points in a coastal arid region of India. Box-whisker plots of annual temperature and rainfall time series depict systematic spatial gradients. Trends were examined by applying eight tests, such as Kendall rank correlation (KRC), Spearman rank order correlation (SROC), Mann-Kendall (MK), four modified MK tests, and innovative trend analysis (ITA). Trend magnitudes were quantified by Sen's slope estimator, and a new method was adopted to assess the significance of linear trends in MK-test statistics. It was found that the significant serial correlation is prominent in the annual and post-monsoon Tmax and Tmin, and pre-monsoon Tmin. The KRC and MK tests yielded similar results in close resemblance with the SROC test. The performance of two modified MK tests considering variance-correction approaches was found superior to the KRC, MK, modified MK with pre-whitening, and ITA tests. The performance of original MK test is poor due to the presence of serial correlation, whereas the ITA method is over-sensitive in identifying trends. Significantly increasing trends are more prominent in Tmin than Tmax. Further, both the annual and monsoon rainfall time series have a significantly increasing trend of 9 mm year-1. The sequential significance of linear trend in MK test-statistics is very strong (R 2 ≥ 0.90) in the annual and pre-monsoon Tmin (90% grid points), and strong (R 2 ≥ 0.75) in monsoon Tmax (68% grid points), monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter Tmin (respectively 65, 55, and 48% grid points), as well as in the annual and monsoon rainfalls (respectively 68 and 61% grid points). Finally, this study recommends use of variance-corrected MK test for the precise identification of trends. It is emphasized that the rising Tmax may hamper crop growth due to enhanced

  17. Trends over time in congenital malformations in live-born children conceived after assisted reproductive technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henningsen, Anna-Karina A; Bergh, Christina; Skjaerven, Rolv; Tiitinen, Aila; Wennerholm, Ulla-Britt; Romundstad, Liv B; Gissler, Mika; Opdahl, Signe; Nyboe Andersen, Anders; Lidegaard, Øjvind; Forman, Julie L; Pinborg, Anja

    2018-03-23

    Children born after assisted reproductive technology, particularly singletons, have been shown to have an increased risk of congenital malformations compared with children born after spontaneous conception. We wished to study whether there has been a change in the past 20 years in the risk of major congenital malformations in children conceived after assisted reproductive technology compared with children spontaneously conceived. Population-based cohort study including 90 201 assisted reproductive technology children and 482 552 children spontaneously conceived, born in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Both singletons and twins born after in vitro fertilization, intracytoplasmatic sperm injection and frozen embryo transfer were included. Data on children was taken from when the national Nordic assisted reproductive technology registries were established until 2007. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to estimate the risks and adjusted odds ratios for congenital malformations in four time periods: 1988-1992, 1993-1997, 1998-2002 and 2003-2007. Only major malformations were included. The absolute risk for singletons of being born with a major malformation was 3.4% among assisted reproductive technology children vs. 2.9% among children spontaneously conceived during the study period. The relative risk of being born with a major congenital malformation between all assisted reproductive technology children and children spontaneously conceived remained similar through all four time periods (p = 0.39). However, we found that over time the number of children diagnosed with a major malformation increased in both groups across all four time periods. When comparing children conceived after assisted reproductive technology and spontaneously conceived, the relative risk of being born with a major congenital malformation did not change during the study period. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  18. On Rigorous Drought Assessment Using Daily Time Scale: Non-Stationary Frequency Analyses, Revisited Concepts, and a New Method to Yield Non-Parametric Indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Onyutha

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Some of the problems in drought assessments are that: analyses tend to focus on coarse temporal scales, many of the methods yield skewed indices, a few terminologies are ambiguously used, and analyses comprise an implicit assumption that the observations come from a stationary process. To solve these problems, this paper introduces non-stationary frequency analyses of quantiles. How to use non-parametric rescaling to obtain robust indices that are not (or minimally skewed is also introduced. To avoid ambiguity, some concepts on, e.g., incidence, extremity, etc., were revisited through shift from monthly to daily time scale. Demonstrations on the introduced methods were made using daily flow and precipitation insufficiency (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration from the Blue Nile basin in Africa. Results show that, when a significant trend exists in extreme events, stationarity-based quantiles can be far different from those when non-stationarity is considered. The introduced non-parametric indices were found to closely agree with the well-known standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices in many aspects but skewness. Apart from revisiting some concepts, the advantages of the use of fine instead of coarse time scales in drought assessment were given. The links for obtaining freely downloadable tools on how to implement the introduced methods were provided.

  19. Prevalence and time trends in diabetes and physical inactivity among adult West African populations: the epidemic has arrived.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abubakari, A R; Lauder, W; Jones, M C; Kirk, A; Agyemang, C; Bhopal, R S

    2009-09-01

    To determine the prevalence and distribution of, and trends in, physical inactivity and diabetes in adult West African populations. Systematic review and meta-analysis. Literature searches were conducted using four electronic databases. Journal hand searches and examination of citations of relevant articles were also undertaken. To be included, studies had to be population based, use clearly defined criteria for measuring diabetes and physical inactivity, present data that allowed calculation of the prevalence of diabetes or physical inactivity, and sample adult participants. Studies retrieved were appraised critically. Meta-analysis was performed using the DerSimonian-Laird random effect model. Twenty-one reports were retrieved for diabetes and 15 reports were retrieved for physical in/activity. Most studies (10 for diabetes and six for physical activity) were conducted solely among urban populations. The prevalence of diabetes in West Africa was approximately 4.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.0-9.0] in urban adults and 2.6% (95%CI 1.5-4.4) in rural adults, and was similar in men and women [prevalence ratio (PR) 1.36, 95%CI 0.96-1.92]. Cumulative time trend analyses suggested an increase in the prevalence of diabetes among adults in urban West Africa, from approximately 3.0% (95%CI 1.0-7.0) to 4.0% (95%CI 2.0-9.0) in the past 10 years. The prevalence of inactivity in West Africa was 13% (95%CI 9.0-18.0). An association was found between physical inactivity and being older (> or = 50 years) (PR 1.82, 95%CI 1.36-2.44), female gender (PR 1.62, 95%CI 1.41-1.87) and urban residence (PR 2.04, 95%CI 1.58-2.63). Diabetes and physical inactivity are important public health issues in urban West Africa, with similar prevalences to wealthy industrialized countries. There is an urgent need for policy makers, politicians and health promotion experts to put measures in place to encourage active lifestyles and control diabetes in urban West Africa.

  20. Substantial Variability Exists in Utilities' Nuclear Decommissioning Funding Adequacy: Baseline Trends (1997-2001); and Scenario and Sensitivity Analyses (Year 2001)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, D. G.

    2003-01-01

    This paper explores the trends over 1997-2001 in my baseline simulation analysis of the sufficiency of electric utilities' funds to eventually decommission the nation's nuclear power plants. Further, for 2001, I describe the utilities' funding adequacy results obtained using scenario and sensitivity analyses, respectively. In this paper, I focus more on the wide variability observed in these adequacy measures among utilities than on the results for the ''average'' utility in the nuclear industry. Only individual utilities, not average utilities -- often used by the nuclear industry to represent its funding adequacy -- will decommission their nuclear plants. Industry-wide results tend to mask the varied results for individual utilities. This paper shows that over 1997-2001, the variability of my baseline decommissioning funding adequacy measures (in percentages) for both utility fund balances and current contributions has remained very large, reflected in the sizable ranges and frequency distributions of these percentages. The relevance of this variability for nuclear decommissioning funding adequacy is, of course, focused more on those utilities that show below ideal balances and contribution levels. Looking backward, 42 of 67 utility fund (available) balances, in 2001, were above (and 25 below) their ideal baseline levels; in 1997, 42 of 76 were above (and 34 below) ideal levels. Of these, many utility balances were far above, and many far below, such ideal levels. The problem of certain utilities continuing to show balances much below ideal persists even with increases in the adequacy of ''average'' utility balances

  1. Trends over time in tree and seedling phylogenetic diversity indicate regional differences in forest biodiversity change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Kevin M; Woodall, Christopher W

    2012-03-01

    Changing climate conditions may impact the short-term ability of forest tree species to regenerate in many locations. In the longer term, tree species may be unable to persist in some locations while they become established in new places. Over both time frames, forest tree biodiversity may change in unexpected ways. Using repeated inventory measurements five years apart from more than 7000 forested plots in the eastern United States, we tested three hypotheses: phylogenetic diversity is substantially different from species richness as a measure of biodiversity; forest communities have undergone recent changes in phylogenetic diversity that differ by size class, region, and seed dispersal strategy; and these patterns are consistent with expected early effects of climate change. Specifically, the magnitude of diversity change across broad regions should be greater among seedlings than in trees, should be associated with latitude and elevation, and should be greater among species with high dispersal capacity. Our analyses demonstrated that phylogenetic diversity and species richness are decoupled at small and medium scales and are imperfectly associated at large scales. This suggests that it is appropriate to apply indicators of biodiversity change based on phylogenetic diversity, which account for evolutionary relationships among species and may better represent community functional diversity. Our results also detected broadscale patterns of forest biodiversity change that are consistent with expected early effects of climate change. First, the statistically significant increase over time in seedling diversity in the South suggests that conditions there have become more favorable for the reproduction and dispersal of a wider variety of species, whereas the significant decrease in northern seedling diversity indicates that northern conditions have become less favorable. Second, we found weak correlations between seedling diversity change and latitude in both zones

  2. Resistance patterns among multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients in greater metropolitan Mumbai: trends over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalal, Alpa; Pawaskar, Akshay; Das, Mrinalini; Desai, Ranjan; Prabhudesai, Pralhad; Chhajed, Prashant; Rajan, Sujeet; Reddy, Deepesh; Babu, Sajit; Jayalakshmi, T K; Saranchuk, Peter; Rodrigues, Camilla; Isaakidis, Petros

    2015-01-01

    While the high burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) itself is a matter of great concern, the emergence and rise of advanced forms of drug-resistance such as extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB) and extremely drug-resistant TB (XXDR-TB) is more troubling. The aim of this study was to investigate the trends over time of patterns of drug resistance in a sample of MDR-TB patients in greater metropolitan Mumbai, India. This was a retrospective, observational study of drug susceptibility testing (DST) results among MDR-TB patients from eight health care facilities in greater Mumbai between 2005 and 2013. We classified resistance patterns into four categories: MDR-TB, pre-XDR-TB, XDR-TB and XXDR-TB. A total of 340 MDR-TB patients were included in the study. Pre-XDR-TB was the most common form of drug-resistant TB observed overall in this Mumbai population at 56.8% compared to 29.4% for MDR-TB. The proportion of patients with MDR-TB was 39.4% in the period 2005-2007 and 27.8% in 2011-2013, while the proportion of those with XDR-TB and XXDR-TB was changed from 6.1% and 0% respectively to 10.6% and 5.6% during the same time period. During the same periods, the proportions of patients with ofloxacin, moxifloxacin and ethionamide resistance significantly increased from 57.6% to 75.3%, from 60.0% to 69.5% and from 24.2% to 52.5% respectively (pMumbai highlight the need for individualized drug regimens, designed on the basis of DST results involving first- and second-line anti-TB drugs and treatment history of the patient. A drug-resistant TB case-finding strategy based on molecular techniques that identify only rifampicin resistance will lead to initiation of suboptimal treatment regimens for a significant number of patients, which may in turn contribute to amplification of resistance and transmission of strains with increasingly advanced resistance within the community.

  3. Using a time-series statistical framework to quantify trends and abrupt change in US corn, soybean, and wheat yields from 1970-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J.; Ives, A. R.; Turner, M. G.; Kucharik, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    Previous studies have identified global agricultural regions where "stagnation" of long-term crop yield increases has occurred. These studies have used a variety of simple statistical methods that often ignore important aspects of time series regression modeling. These methods can lead to differing and contradictory results, which creates uncertainty regarding food security given rapid global population growth. Here, we present a new statistical framework incorporating time series-based algorithms into standard regression models to quantify spatiotemporal yield trends of US maize, soybean, and winter wheat from 1970-2016. Our primary goal was to quantify spatial differences in yield trends for these three crops using USDA county level data. This information was used to identify regions experiencing the largest changes in the rate of yield increases over time, and to determine whether abrupt shifts in the rate of yield increases have occurred. Although crop yields continue to increase in most maize-, soybean-, and winter wheat-growing areas, yield increases have stagnated in some key agricultural regions during the most recent 15 to 16 years: some maize-growing areas, except for the northern Great Plains, have shown a significant trend towards smaller annual yield increases for maize; soybean has maintained an consistent long-term yield gains in the Northern Great Plains, the Midwest, and southeast US, but has experienced a shift to smaller annual increases in other regions; winter wheat maintained a moderate annual increase in eastern South Dakota and eastern US locations, but showed a decline in the magnitude of annual increases across the central Great Plains and western US regions. Our results suggest that there were abrupt shifts in the rate of annual yield increases in a variety of US regions among the three crops. The framework presented here can be broadly applied to additional yield trend analyses for different crops and regions of the Earth.

  4. The influence of time horizon on results of cost-effectiveness analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, David D; Wilkinson, Colby L; Pope, Elle F; Chambers, James D; Cohen, Joshua T; Neumann, Peter J

    2017-12-01

    Debates persist on the appropriate time horizon from a payer's perspective and how the time horizon in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) influences the value assessment. We systematically reviewed the Tufts Medical Center CEA Registry and identified US-based studies that used a payer perspective from 2005-2014. We classified the identified CEAs as short-term (time horizon ≤ 5 years) and long-term (> 5 years), and examined associations between study characteristics and the specified time horizon. We also developed case studies with selected interventions to further explore the relationship between time horizon and projected costs, benefits, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). Among 782 identified studies that met our inclusion criteria, 552 studies (71%) utilized a long-term time horizon while 198 studies (25%) used a short-term horizon. Among studies that employed multiple time horizons, the extension of the time horizon yielded more favorable ICERs in 19 cases and less favorable ICERs in 4 cases. Case studies showed the use of a longer time horizon also yielded more favorable ICERs. The assumed time horizon in CEAs can substantially influence the value assessment of medical interventions. To capture all consequences, we encourage the use of time horizons that extend sufficiently into the future.

  5. Subgroup analyses in confirmatory clinical trials: time to be specific about their purposes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julien Tanniou

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is well recognized that treatment effects may not be homogeneous across the study population. Subgroup analyses constitute a fundamental step in the assessment of evidence from confirmatory (Phase III clinical trials, where conclusions for the overall study population might not hold. Subgroup analyses can have different and distinct purposes, requiring specific design and analysis solutions. It is relevant to evaluate methodological developments in subgroup analyses against these purposes to guide health care professionals and regulators as well as to identify gaps in current methodology. Methods We defined four purposes for subgroup analyses: (1 Investigate the consistency of treatment effects across subgroups of clinical importance, (2 Explore the treatment effect across different subgroups within an overall non-significant trial, (3 Evaluate safety profiles limited to one or a few subgroup(s, (4 Establish efficacy in the targeted subgroup when included in a confirmatory testing strategy of a single trial. We reviewed the methodology in line with this “purpose-based” framework. The review covered papers published between January 2005 and April 2015 and aimed to classify them in none, one or more of the aforementioned purposes. Results In total 1857 potentially eligible papers were identified. Forty-eight papers were selected and 20 additional relevant papers were identified from their references, leading to 68 papers in total. Nineteen were dedicated to purpose 1, 16 to purpose 4, one to purpose 2 and none to purpose 3. Seven papers were dedicated to more than one purpose, the 25 remaining could not be classified unambiguously. Purposes of the methods were often not specifically indicated, methods for subgroup analysis for safety purposes were almost absent and a multitude of diverse methods were developed for purpose (1. Conclusions It is important that researchers developing methodology for subgroup analysis

  6. Aircraft emission inventories for scheduled air traffic for the 1976-92 time period. Historical trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baughcum, S L; Henderson, S C; Tritz, T G [Boeing Co., Seattle, WA (United States)

    1998-12-31

    Emission inventories of fuel burned, NO{sub x}, CO, and hydrocarbons have been calculated for scheduled air traffic in 1976, 1984, 1990 and 1992 on a 1 deg latitude x 1 deg longitude x 1 km pressure altitude grid. Using this database, the seasonal variation and historical trends in aircraft emissions have been calculated for selected geographical regions (e.g., North Atlantic, Europe, North America, North Pacific). The trend in emissions is a combination of the effects of passenger demand growth, improved aircraft efficiency, changes in combustor characteristics, and aircraft size. (author) 8 refs.

  7. Aircraft emission inventories for scheduled air traffic for the 1976-92 time period. Historical trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baughcum, S.L.; Henderson, S.C.; Tritz, T.G. [Boeing Co., Seattle, WA (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Emission inventories of fuel burned, NO{sub x}, CO, and hydrocarbons have been calculated for scheduled air traffic in 1976, 1984, 1990 and 1992 on a 1 deg latitude x 1 deg longitude x 1 km pressure altitude grid. Using this database, the seasonal variation and historical trends in aircraft emissions have been calculated for selected geographical regions (e.g., North Atlantic, Europe, North America, North Pacific). The trend in emissions is a combination of the effects of passenger demand growth, improved aircraft efficiency, changes in combustor characteristics, and aircraft size. (author) 8 refs.

  8. FEM for time-fractional diffusion equations, novel optimal error analyses

    OpenAIRE

    Mustapha, Kassem

    2016-01-01

    A semidiscrete Galerkin finite element method applied to time-fractional diffusion equations with time-space dependent diffusivity on bounded convex spatial domains will be studied. The main focus is on achieving optimal error results with respect to both the convergence order of the approximate solution and the regularity of the initial data. By using novel energy arguments, for each fixed time $t$, optimal error bounds in the spatial $L^2$- and $H^1$-norms are derived for both cases: smooth...

  9. Time trends in socio-economic inequalities for women and men with disabilities in Australia: evidence of persisting inequalities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavanagh, Anne M; Krnjacki, Lauren; Beer, Andrew; Lamontagne, Anthony D; Bentley, Rebecca

    2013-08-29

    The socio-economic circumstances and health of people with disabilities has been relatively ignored in public health research, policy and practice in Australia and internationally. This is despite emerging evidence that the socio-economic circumstances that people with disabilities live in contributes to their poorer health. Compared to other developed countries, Australians with disabilities are more likely to live in disadvantaged circumstances, despite being an economically prosperous country; it is therefore likely that the socio-economic disadvantage experienced by Australians with disabilities makes a significant contribution to their health. Despite the importance of this issue Australia does not routinely monitor the socio-economic inequalities for people with disabilities. This paper addresses this gap by describing time trends in socio-economic conditions for Australians with and without disabilities according to the severity of the disability and sex. Cross-sectional analyses of the Australian Bureau of Statistics Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers were carried out at three time points (1998, 2003 and 2009) to estimate the proportions of women and men (aged between 25 and 64 years) who were living on low incomes, had not completed year 12, were not in paid work, living in private rental and experiencing multiple disadvantage (three or more of the indicators). People with disabilities are less likely to have completed year 12, be in paid work and are more likely to be living on low incomes and experiencing multiple disadvantage. These conditions worsened with increasing severity of disability and increased or persisted over time, with most of the increase between 1998 and 2003. While women with milder disabilities tended to fare worse than men, the proportions were similar for those with moderate and severe/profound disabilities. People with disabilities experience high levels of socio-economic disadvantage which has increased or persisted over time

  10. Nonparametric trend estimation in the presence of fractal noise: application to fMRI time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afshinpour, Babak; Hossein-Zadeh, Gholam-Ali; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid

    2008-06-30

    Unknown low frequency fluctuations called "trend" are observed in noisy time-series measured for different applications. In some disciplines, they carry primary information while in other fields such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) they carry nuisance effects. In all cases, however, it is necessary to estimate them accurately. In this paper, a method for estimating trend in the presence of fractal noise is proposed and applied to fMRI time-series. To this end, a partly linear model (PLM) is fitted to each time-series. The parametric and nonparametric parts of PLM are considered as contributions of hemodynamic response and trend, respectively. Using the whitening property of wavelet transform, the unknown components of the model are estimated in the wavelet domain. The results of the proposed method are compared to those of other parametric trend-removal approaches such as spline and polynomial models. It is shown that the proposed method improves activation detection and decreases variance of the estimated parameters relative to the other methods.

  11. Time and frequency domain analyses of the Hualien Large-Scale Seismic Test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kabanda, John; Kwon, Oh-Sung; Kwon, Gunup

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Time- and frequency-domain analysis methods are verified against each other. • The two analysis methods are validated against Hualien LSST. • The nonlinear time domain (NLTD) analysis resulted in more realistic response. • The frequency domain (FD) analysis shows amplification at resonant frequencies. • The NLTD analysis requires significant modeling and computing time. - Abstract: In the nuclear industry, the equivalent-linear frequency domain analysis method has been the de facto standard procedure primarily due to the method's computational efficiency. This study explores the feasibility of applying the nonlinear time domain analysis method for the soil–structure-interaction analysis of nuclear power facilities. As a first step, the equivalency of the time and frequency domain analysis methods is verified through a site response analysis of one-dimensional soil, a dynamic impedance analysis of soil–foundation system, and a seismic response analysis of the entire soil–structure system. For the verifications, an idealized elastic soil–structure system is used to minimize variables in the comparison of the two methods. Then, the verified analysis methods are used to develop time and frequency domain models of Hualien Large-Scale Seismic Test. The predicted structural responses are compared against field measurements. The models are also analyzed with an amplified ground motion to evaluate discrepancies of the time and frequency domain analysis methods when the soil–structure system behaves beyond the elastic range. The analysis results show that the equivalent-linear frequency domain analysis method amplifies certain frequency bands and tends to result in higher structural acceleration than the nonlinear time domain analysis method. A comparison with field measurements shows that the nonlinear time domain analysis method better captures the frequency distribution of recorded structural responses than the frequency domain

  12. Decreasing pH trend estimated from 25-yr time series of carbonate parameters in the western North Pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Midorikawa, Takashi; Ishii, Masao; Sasano, Daisuke; Kosugi, Naohiro (Geochemical Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (Japan)), e-mail: midorika@mri-jma.go.jp; Saito, Shu (Geochemical Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Institute of Observational Research for Global Change (IORGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka (Japan)); Motoi, Tatsuo (Oceanographic Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan)); Kamiya, Hitomi; Nakadate, Akira; Nemoto, Kazuhiro (Global Environment and Marine Dept., Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo (Japan)); Inoue, Hisayuki Y. (Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo (Japan))

    2010-11-15

    We estimated long-term trends of ocean acidification in surface waters in latitudinal zones from 3 deg N to 33 deg N along the repeat hydrographic line at 137 deg E in the western North Pacific Ocean. Estimates were based on the observational records of oceanic CO{sub 2} partial pressure and related surface properties over the last two decades. The computed pH time series both for 25 yr in winter (late January to early February) and for 21 yr in summer (June-July) exhibited significant decreasing trends in the extensive subtropical to equatorial zones, with interannual variations that were larger in summer. The calculated rates of pH decrease ranged from 0.0015 to 0.0021 yr-1 (average, 0.0018 +- 0.0002 yr-1) in winter and from 0.0008 to 0.0019 yr-1 (average, 0.0013 +- 0.0005 yr-1 ) in summer. The thermodynamic effects of rising sea surface temperature (SST) accounted for up to 44% (average, 15%) of the trend of pH decrease in the subtropical region in winter, whereas a trend of decreasing SST slowed the pH decrease in the northern subtropical region (around 25 deg N) in summer. We used the results from recent trends to evaluate future possible thermodynamic changes in the upper ocean carbonate system

  13. Modelling BSE trend over time in Europe, a risk assessment perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ducrot, C.; Sala, C.; Ru, G.; Koeijer, de A.A.; Sheridan, H.; Saegerman, C.; Selhorst, T.; Arnold, M.; Polak, M.P.; Calavas, D.

    2010-01-01

    BSE is a zoonotic disease that caused the emergence of variant Creuzfeldt-Jakob disease in the mid 1990s. The trend of the BSE epidemic in seven European countries was assessed and compared, using Age-Period-Cohort and Reproduction Ratio modelling applied to surveillance data 2001-2007. A strong

  14. Trends into rainfall time series of two andes basins of Valle del Cauca (Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisury Cardona-Guerrero

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the goal of detecting changes or trends in registered data of daily rainfall in the basins of rivers Dagua and Cali, located in the south-west of Colombia, in the Valle del Cauca, nine climate extremes indices were calculated using the RClimDex software. For this, precipitation trends were analyzed in 18 rain gauges located in the study area with historical series ranging between 21 and 56 years. Homogeneity tests were made to data to ensure consistency in the information. The results show changes in rainfall, dominated by the increasing trends for almost all indices; however most of the trends do not show high statistical significance. Also, a significant increase in the average annual total rainfall of 15.2 mm (Dagua river basin and 9.1 mm (Cali river basin in the stations located below 1500 msnm was obtained. Moreover, in the stations located at higher elevations, decreases were observed. There is a homogeneous spatial distribution for the most of the indices and similar patterns were found located in defined areas of the study zone, which may affect the runoff production in watersheds in the coming years.

  15. A generative inference framework for analysing patterns of cultural change in sparse population data with evidence for fashion trends in LBK culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandler, Anne; Shennan, Stephen

    2015-12-06

    Cultural change can be quantified by temporal changes in frequency of different cultural artefacts and it is a central question to identify what underlying cultural transmission processes could have caused the observed frequency changes. Observed changes, however, often describe the dynamics in samples of the population of artefacts, whereas transmission processes act on the whole population. Here we develop a modelling framework aimed at addressing this inference problem. To do so, we firstly generate population structures from which the observed sample could have been drawn randomly and then determine theoretical samples at a later time t2 produced under the assumption that changes in frequencies are caused by a specific transmission process. Thereby we also account for the potential effect of time-averaging processes in the generation of the observed sample. Subsequent statistical comparisons (e.g. using Bayesian inference) of the theoretical and observed samples at t2 can establish which processes could have produced the observed frequency data. In this way, we infer underlying transmission processes directly from available data without any equilibrium assumption. We apply this framework to a dataset describing pottery from settlements of some of the first farmers in Europe (the LBK culture) and conclude that the observed frequency dynamic of different types of decorated pottery is consistent with age-dependent selection, a preference for 'young' pottery types which is potentially indicative of fashion trends. © 2015 The Author(s).

  16. Analyses of commuting distances and times in the household context: The case of Berlin

    OpenAIRE

    Beige, Sigrun

    2012-01-01

    Commuting is the consequence of a spatial discrepancy between the residential and occupational locations. Commuting distance and time are changed either by residential or occupational mobility. Residential locations are by their very nature chosen at the household level. These joint decisions determine commuting distances and times of each employed household member, leading to a sort of commuting collaboration between the spouses. Multiple-earner households have to adapt their residential loc...

  17. Global Times once Again: Representative Democracy and Countervailing Trends in Iberoamerica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Roniger

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In the late 1990s and early 2000s democratic expectations were replaced by the discredit of democracy. Analyzing this trend, this study looks at the interplay of politics and the economic realm. It discusses the fragility and persistence of democracy and identifies the effect of recent macro-economic policies, the weakening of public goods, processes of dualization in forms of participation in the public domain. It also analyzes contrasting political trends, which involve some innovative projects institutionalizing democratic controls, but also new forms of populism and clientelism buttressed by poverty, unemployment and violence which reinforce the logic of exclusion. Finally, it suggests rethinking the public realm as a focus for the re-creation of sociability and a shared sense of future by improving public performance and efficacy, safeguarding public goods and thus promoting democratic sustainability in Iberoamerica.

  18. Time trends for injuries and illness, and their relation to performance in the National Basketball Association.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podlog, Leslie; Buhler, Craig F; Pollack, Harvey; Hopkins, Paul N; Burgess, Paul R

    2015-05-01

    To survey injury/illness in the National Basketball Association over a 25-year period and examine the relationship of injury/illness to team performance. A retrospective correlational design. Trends were examined in reported numbers of players injured/ill during a season and games missed due to injury/illness from seasons ending in 1986 through 2005. This period was compared to years 2006-2010, when NBA teams were allowed to increase the total number of players on the team from 12 to 15. There was a highly significant trend (pBasketball Association up until the expansion of team size in 2006. Following 2006, team expansion was positively associated with decreased injury/illness rates. The latter finding suggests the importance of maintaining a healthy roster with respect to winning outcomes. Copyright © 2014 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. National Time Trends in Bullying among Adolescents in the Czech Republic from 1994 to 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarková, Mária; Sigmundová, Dagmar; Kalman, Michal

    2017-07-01

    Bullying in school is a public health concern which continues to be a serious threat to physical and emotional health of children and adolescents. The purpose of this study is to examine trends in bullying behaviour among school-aged children in the Czech Republic. Data were obtained from cross-sectional self-report surveys in the years 1994-2014 as a part of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study (HBSC) from a representative sample of 11-, 13-, and 15-year olds. The highest proportion of children who bullied others (20-47%) occurred during the years 1994 and 1998. The logistic regression models showed significant decreasing trends in bullying others and also in being bullied, regardless of age and gender. The decreasing trend in bullying may be the consequence of a preventive policy in the Czech Republic, but also a change in the understanding of the concept of bullying in society. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

  20. Motivational power of future time perspective : Meta-analyses in education, work, and health

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andre, L.; van Vianen, A.E.M.; Peetsma, T.T.D.; Oort, F.J.

    2018-01-01

    Future time perspective (FTP) may predict individual attitudes and behaviors. However, FTP research includes different FTP conceptualizations and outcomes which hinder generalizing its findings. To solve the inconsistencies in FTP research and generalize the magnitude of FTP as a driver of

  1. Analyses of intricate kinetics of the serum proteome during and after colon surgery by protein expression time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelofsen, Johan; Alvarez Llamas, Gloria; Dijkstra, Martijn; Breitling, Rainer; Havenga, Klaas; Bijzet, Johannes; Zandbergen, Wouter; de Vries, Marcel; Ploeg, Rutger J.; Vonk, Roel J.

    Analyses of intricate kinetics of the serum proteome during and after colon surgery by protein expression time series.Roelofsen H, Alvarez-Llamas G, Dijkstra M, Breitling R, Havenga K, Bijzet J, Zandbergen W, de Vries MP, Ploeg RJ, Vonk RJ. Centre for Medical Biomics, University Medical Centre

  2. Characterization of Land Transitions Patterns from Multivariate Time Series Using Seasonal Trend Analysis and Principal Component Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benoit Parmentier

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Characterizing biophysical changes in land change areas over large regions with short and noisy multivariate time series and multiple temporal parameters remains a challenging task. Most studies focus on detection rather than the characterization, i.e., the manner by which surface state variables are altered by the process of changes. In this study, a procedure is presented to extract and characterize simultaneous temporal changes in MODIS multivariate times series from three surface state variables the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, land surface temperature (LST and albedo (ALB. The analysis involves conducting a seasonal trend analysis (STA to extract three seasonal shape parameters (Amplitude 0, Amplitude 1 and Amplitude 2 and using principal component analysis (PCA to contrast trends in change and no-change areas. We illustrate the method by characterizing trends in burned and unburned pixels in Alaska over the 2001–2009 time period. Findings show consistent and meaningful extraction of temporal patterns related to fire disturbances. The first principal component (PC1 is characterized by a decrease in mean NDVI (Amplitude 0 with a concurrent increase in albedo (the mean and the annual amplitude and an increase in LST annual variability (Amplitude 1. These results provide systematic empirical evidence of surface changes associated with one type of land change, fire disturbances, and suggest that STA with PCA may be used to characterize many other types of land transitions over large landscape areas using multivariate Earth observation time series.

  3. THE EFFECT OF DECOMPOSITION METHOD AS DATA PREPROCESSING ON NEURAL NETWORKS MODEL FOR FORECASTING TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subanar Subanar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, one of the central topics for the neural networks (NN community is the issue of data preprocessing on the use of NN. In this paper, we will investigate this topic particularly on the effect of Decomposition method as data processing and the use of NN for modeling effectively time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. Limited empirical studies on seasonal time series forecasting with neural networks show that some find neural networks are able to model seasonality directly and prior deseasonalization is not necessary, and others conclude just the opposite. In this research, we study particularly on the effectiveness of data preprocessing, including detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method on NN modeling and forecasting performance. We use two kinds of data, simulation and real data. Simulation data are examined on multiplicative of trend and seasonality patterns. The results are compared to those obtained from the classical time series model. Our result shows that a combination of detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method is the effective data preprocessing on the use of NN for forecasting trend and seasonal time series.

  4. Ethnic variations in overweight and obesity among children over time: findings from analyses of the Health Surveys for England 1998-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsen, S; Morris, S; Kinra, S; Vallejo-Torres, L; Viner, R M

    2014-06-01

    The increase in the prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents in England since the mid-1990s has been dramatic. Cross-sectional evidence suggests ethnic variations in childhood obesity prevalence. The objective of the study was to examine whether and how ethnic variations in childhood overweight/obesity have changed over time, and are affected by socioeconomic factors. This study uses logistic regression to analyse ethnic differences in the relative likelihood of being at or above the age- and gender-specific thresholds for overweight and obesity developed by the International Obesity Task Force among children aged between 2 and 15 from 11 ethnic groups included in the Health Surveys for England between 1998 and 2009, adjusting for age, gender, year of data collection and equivalized household income. We separately analyse the likelihood of being at or above the thresholds for overweight (but below those for obesity) and obesity. Trends in overweight/obesity over time among ethnic minority groups do not follow those of white English children. Black African children had higher rates of overweight and obesity, which appear to have peaked, and black Caribbean children had higher rates of obesity than other groups examined, which appear to continue rising. These differences were not explained by socioeconomic variations between groups. Policies are required that encourage healthy lifestyles among ethnic minority young people, while engaging with the complexities associated with these choices during childhood and adolescence. © 2013 The Authors. Pediatric Obesity © 2013 International Association for the Study of Obesity.

  5. Linear time delay methods and stability analyses of the human spine. Effects of neuromuscular reflex response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, Timothy C; Granata, Kevin P; Madigan, Michael L; Hendricks, Scott L

    2008-08-01

    Linear stability methods were applied to a biomechanical model of the human musculoskeletal spine to investigate effects of reflex gain and reflex delay on stability. Equations of motion represented a dynamic 18 degrees-of-freedom rigid-body model with time-delayed reflexes. Optimal muscle activation levels were identified by minimizing metabolic power with the constraints of equilibrium and stability with zero reflex time delay. Muscle activation levels and associated muscle forces were used to find the delay margin, i.e., the maximum reflex delay for which the system was stable. Results demonstrated that stiffness due to antagonistic co-contraction necessary for stability declined with increased proportional reflex gain. Reflex delay limited the maximum acceptable proportional reflex gain, i.e., long reflex delay required smaller maximum reflex gain to avoid instability. As differential reflex gain increased, there was a small increase in acceptable reflex delay. However, differential reflex gain with values near intrinsic damping caused the delay margin to approach zero. Forward-dynamic simulations of the fully nonlinear time-delayed system verified the linear results. The linear methods accurately found the delay margin below which the nonlinear system was asymptotically stable. These methods may aid future investigations in the role of reflexes in musculoskeletal stability.

  6. Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on kidney cancer mortality in Europe, 1981–2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    López-Abente Gonzalo

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The incorporation of diagnostic and therapeutic improvements, as well as the different smoking patterns, may have had an influence on the observed variability in renal cancer mortality across Europe. This study examined time trends in kidney cancer mortality in fourteen European countries during the last two decades of the 20th century. Methods Kidney cancer deaths and population estimates for each country during the period 1981–2000 were drawn from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age- and period-adjusted mortality rates, as well as annual percentage changes in age-adjusted mortality rates, were calculated for each country and geographical region. Log-linear Poisson models were also fitted to study the effect of age, death period, and birth cohort on kidney cancer mortality rates within each country. Results For men, the overall standardized kidney cancer mortality rates in the eastern, western, and northern European countries were 20, 25, and 53% higher than those for the southern European countries, respectively. However, age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant annual decrease of -0.7% in the north of Europe, a moderate rise of 0.7% in the west, and substantial increases of 1.4% in the south and 2.0% in the east. This trend was similar among women, but with lower mortality rates. Age-period-cohort models showed three different birth-cohort patterns for both men and women: a decrease in mortality trend for those generations born after 1920 in the Nordic countries, a similar but lagged decline for cohorts born after 1930 in western and southern European countries, and a continuous increase throughout all birth cohorts in eastern Europe. Similar but more heterogeneous regional patterns were observed for period effects. Conclusion Kidney cancer mortality trends in Europe showed a clear north-south pattern, with high rates on a downward trend in the north, intermediate rates on a more marked rising

  7. An integrated portable hand-held analyser for real-time isothermal nucleic acid amplification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Matthew C. [College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St Petersburg, FL (United States)], E-mail: msmith@marine.usf.edu; Steimle, George; Ivanov, Stan; Holly, Mark; Fries, David P. [College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St Petersburg, FL (United States)

    2007-08-29

    A compact hand-held heated fluorometric instrument for performing real-time isothermal nucleic acid amplification and detection is described. The optoelectronic instrument combines a Printed Circuit Board/Micro Electro Mechanical Systems (PCB/MEMS) reaction detection/chamber containing an integrated resistive heater with attached miniature LED light source and photo-detector and a disposable glass waveguide capillary to enable a mini-fluorometer. The fluorometer is fabricated and assembled in planar geometry, rolled into a tubular format and packaged with custom control electronics to form the hand-held reactor. Positive or negative results for each reaction are displayed to the user using an LED interface. Reaction data is stored in FLASH memory for retrieval via an in-built USB connection. Operating on one disposable 3 V lithium battery >12, 60 min reactions can be performed. Maximum dimensions of the system are 150 mm (h) x 48 mm (d) x 40 mm (w), the total instrument weight (with battery) is 140 g. The system produces comparable results to laboratory instrumentation when performing a real-time nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (NASBA) reaction, and also displayed comparable precision, accuracy and resolution to laboratory-based real-time nucleic acid amplification instrumentation. A good linear response (R{sup 2} = 0.948) to fluorescein gradients ranging from 0.5 to 10 {mu}M was also obtained from the instrument indicating that it may be utilized for other fluorometric assays. This instrument enables an inexpensive, compact approach to in-field genetic screening, providing results comparable to laboratory equipment with rapid user feedback as to the status of the reaction.

  8. An integrated portable hand-held analyser for real-time isothermal nucleic acid amplification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Matthew C.; Steimle, George; Ivanov, Stan; Holly, Mark; Fries, David P.

    2007-01-01

    A compact hand-held heated fluorometric instrument for performing real-time isothermal nucleic acid amplification and detection is described. The optoelectronic instrument combines a Printed Circuit Board/Micro Electro Mechanical Systems (PCB/MEMS) reaction detection/chamber containing an integrated resistive heater with attached miniature LED light source and photo-detector and a disposable glass waveguide capillary to enable a mini-fluorometer. The fluorometer is fabricated and assembled in planar geometry, rolled into a tubular format and packaged with custom control electronics to form the hand-held reactor. Positive or negative results for each reaction are displayed to the user using an LED interface. Reaction data is stored in FLASH memory for retrieval via an in-built USB connection. Operating on one disposable 3 V lithium battery >12, 60 min reactions can be performed. Maximum dimensions of the system are 150 mm (h) x 48 mm (d) x 40 mm (w), the total instrument weight (with battery) is 140 g. The system produces comparable results to laboratory instrumentation when performing a real-time nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (NASBA) reaction, and also displayed comparable precision, accuracy and resolution to laboratory-based real-time nucleic acid amplification instrumentation. A good linear response (R 2 = 0.948) to fluorescein gradients ranging from 0.5 to 10 μM was also obtained from the instrument indicating that it may be utilized for other fluorometric assays. This instrument enables an inexpensive, compact approach to in-field genetic screening, providing results comparable to laboratory equipment with rapid user feedback as to the status of the reaction

  9. A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

    OpenAIRE

    Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

  10. A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

    OpenAIRE

    Qi Gao; Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

  11. Validation of deep freezing of pilot samples for checking of time stability of indirect analyses of basic milk composition and for their long shelf-life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oto Hanuš

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Essential part of raw milk component measurement is indirect infraanalyse. The checking of time measurement stability is important there. The preparation of pilot samples was described. Information about deep frozen milk pilot sample stability are sporadic. Aim of this work was to verify the stability of long-term stored and deep frozen pilot samples (FPSs. Pilot samples were frozen in liquid nitrogen bath −196 °C and after that stored at −21 °C for one month (A and more months (B till analyse. The pilot samples were measured by CombiFoss 6000: fat F (%; protein CP (%; lactose L (%; casein C (%; solid non fat SNF (%; urea U (mg/100ml; somatic cell count SCC (ths./ml. In the short-term (A experiment the impact of freezing on pilot milk samples was relatively small, in the framework of acceptable value of repeatability (±0.02 % for components. The stability of values of FPSs was better according to standard deviations for important F evaluation in H (Holstein breed samples. The repeatability of values of FPSs in the time was very good for other components. The repeatability was better for SCC in J (Jersey breed samples (±16.5 thousands/ml. That is why the higher variability (±30.1 thousands/ml in H sample is visible less sceptically. The apparent result trends were not observable in the repeatability development of important milk indicators in FPSs. The mild trend was only in CP, but this trend covered absolutely very small shift (variation range. There are only oscillations, which are similar between J and H samples. It is possible to attribute these oscillations rather to instrument effects than to sample effects. The oscilations were markedly higher in the long-term (B experiment. Between J and H samples the oscilations were very similar in curves F and L. It is also possible to attribute them more to instrumental effects. The repeatability values (standard deviations sd of FPSs were mostly lower than ±0.06 %. It is acceptable for

  12. Modelling and Analysing Deadlock in Flexible Manufacturing System using Timed Petri Net

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Assem Hatem Taha

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Flexible manufacturing system (FMS has several advantages compared to conventional systems such as higher machine utilization, higher efficiency, less inventory, and less production time. On the other hand, FMS is expensive and complicated. One of the main problems that may happen is the deadlock. Deadlock is a case that happens when one operation or more are unable to complete their tasks because of waiting of resources that are used by other processes. This may occur due to inappropriate sharing of the resources or improper resource allocation logic which may lead to deadlock occurrence due to the complexity of assigning shared resources to different tasks in an efficient way. One of the most effective tools to model and detect the deadlocks is the petri net. In this research the Matlab software has been used to detect the deadlock in two parallel lines with one shared machines. The analysis shows that deadlock exists at transition with high utilization and place with high waiting time

  13. Childbearing trends in Iceland, 1982-2013: Fertility timing, quantum, and gender preferences for children in a Nordic context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ari Klængur Jónsson

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Iceland is one of the most gender-equal countries in the world, but one that does not seem to have experienced the same fertility fluctuations as most other countries, following the enhanced role of women in society. Objective: In this study we examine the childbearing trends in Iceland during 1982-2013 by analysing the progressions to parities one, two, and three. We also investigate whether there is evidence of gender preferences for children among Icelandic parents. Methods: Official individual longitudinal register data is used, covering the total female population born in Iceland between 1941 and 1997. The data is analysed by means of event history analysis. Results: We find evidence of tendencies to postpone motherhood during the period, with increases in fertility for women in their 30s and 40s. The propensity to have a second and a third child has not declined; on the contrary, these birth intensities have increased since the mid-1980s. Estimates suggest that Icelandic parents prefer to have daughters. Conclusions: During a period of increased educational attainment and postponed family formation, the resilience of Icelandic fertility is intriguing. Contribution: The study provides the first comprehensive overview of fertility trends in Iceland.

  14. Forty years trends in timing of pubertal growth spurt in 157,000 Danish school children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aksglæde, Lise; Olsen, Lina Wøhlk; Sørensen, Thorkild I.A.

    2008-01-01

    to 1969 who attended primary school in the Copenhagen Municipality. 135,223 girls and 21,612 boys fulfilled the criteria for determining age at OGS and age at PHV. These physiological events were used as markers of pubertal development in our computerized method in order to evaluate any secular trends...... in pubertal maturation during the study period (year of birth 1930 to 1969). In this period, age at OGS declined statistically significantly by 0.2 and 0.4 years in girls and boys, respectively, whereas age at PHV declined statistically significantly by 0.5 and 0.3 years in girls and boys, respectively...

  15. Estimating time-varying exposure-outcome associations using case-control data: logistic and case-cohort analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keogh, Ruth H; Mangtani, Punam; Rodrigues, Laura; Nguipdop Djomo, Patrick

    2016-01-05

    Traditional analyses of standard case-control studies using logistic regression do not allow estimation of time-varying associations between exposures and the outcome. We present two approaches which allow this. The motivation is a study of vaccine efficacy as a function of time since vaccination. Our first approach is to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations by fitting a series of logistic regressions within successive time periods, reusing controls across periods. Our second approach treats the case-control sample as a case-cohort study, with the controls forming the subcohort. In the case-cohort analysis, controls contribute information at all times they are at risk. Extensions allow left truncation, frequency matching and, using the case-cohort analysis, time-varying exposures. Simulations are used to investigate the methods. The simulation results show that both methods give correct estimates of time-varying effects of exposures using standard case-control data. Using the logistic approach there are efficiency gains by reusing controls over time and care should be taken over the definition of controls within time periods. However, using the case-cohort analysis there is no ambiguity over the definition of controls. The performance of the two analyses is very similar when controls are used most efficiently under the logistic approach. Using our methods, case-control studies can be used to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations where they may not previously have been considered. The case-cohort analysis has several advantages, including that it allows estimation of time-varying associations as a continuous function of time, while the logistic regression approach is restricted to assuming a step function form for the time-varying association.

  16. Estimating time-varying exposure-outcome associations using case-control data: logistic and case-cohort analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth H. Keogh

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Traditional analyses of standard case-control studies using logistic regression do not allow estimation of time-varying associations between exposures and the outcome. We present two approaches which allow this. The motivation is a study of vaccine efficacy as a function of time since vaccination. Methods Our first approach is to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations by fitting a series of logistic regressions within successive time periods, reusing controls across periods. Our second approach treats the case-control sample as a case-cohort study, with the controls forming the subcohort. In the case-cohort analysis, controls contribute information at all times they are at risk. Extensions allow left truncation, frequency matching and, using the case-cohort analysis, time-varying exposures. Simulations are used to investigate the methods. Results The simulation results show that both methods give correct estimates of time-varying effects of exposures using standard case-control data. Using the logistic approach there are efficiency gains by reusing controls over time and care should be taken over the definition of controls within time periods. However, using the case-cohort analysis there is no ambiguity over the definition of controls. The performance of the two analyses is very similar when controls are used most efficiently under the logistic approach. Conclusions Using our methods, case-control studies can be used to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations where they may not previously have been considered. The case-cohort analysis has several advantages, including that it allows estimation of time-varying associations as a continuous function of time, while the logistic regression approach is restricted to assuming a step function form for the time-varying association.

  17. Characteristic Trend Analysis of Cancer Patients Hospitalized in Shanxi Tumor Hospital for the First Time during 2001 and 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wen-Li; Wang, Yan; Han, Cun-Zhi

    2015-01-01

    To observe and analyze the characteristic trend of cancer patients hospitalized for the first time in Shanxi Tumor Hospital from 2001 to 2010, clinical data including case number, age, gender, and frequency of different tumor occurrences were collected and statistically analyzed. (i) From 2001 to 2010, the number of cancer patients hospitalized for the first time increased by 1.3-fold; (ii) The patient overall average age also increased from 51.8 to 54.4, for males from 55.5 to 58.7 and females from 48.4 to 51.1, respectively. (iii) Male patients accounted for 43-48% and females accounted for 52-57% of the total. The percentage of female patients was higher than that of male patients in every year and showed an upward trend over the years, while that of the males showed a downward trend (χ2 =7.031, p=0.008); (iv) Among the top 6 most common cancers, lung, cervical, esophageal, colorectal and breast cancers tended to increase over the years (ppatients hospitalized for the first time during the past 10 years increased year by year, and was higher for female than male; (ii) the average age of patients increased year after year and was greater for male than female; (iii) the number of patients with lung cancer, cervical cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer and breast cancer increased over years.

  18. Aesthetic appreciation: event-related field and time-frequency analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munar, Enric; Nadal, Marcos; Castellanos, Nazareth P; Flexas, Albert; Maestú, Fernando; Mirasso, Claudio; Cela-Conde, Camilo J

    2011-01-01

    Improvements in neuroimaging methods have afforded significant advances in our knowledge of the cognitive and neural foundations of aesthetic appreciation. We used magnetoencephalography (MEG) to register brain activity while participants decided about the beauty of visual stimuli. The data were analyzed with event-related field (ERF) and Time-Frequency (TF) procedures. ERFs revealed no significant differences between brain activity related with stimuli rated as "beautiful" and "not beautiful." TF analysis showed clear differences between both conditions 400 ms after stimulus onset. Oscillatory power was greater for stimuli rated as "beautiful" than those regarded as "not beautiful" in the four frequency bands (theta, alpha, beta, and gamma). These results are interpreted in the frame of synchronization studies.

  19. MHD stability analyses of a tokamak plasma by time-dependent codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurita, Gen-ichi

    1982-07-01

    The MHD properties of a tokamak plasma are investigated by using time evolutional codes. As for the ideal MHD modes we have analyzed the external modes including the positional instability. Linear and nonlinear ideal MHD codes have been developed. Effects of the toroidicity and conducting shell on the external kink mode are studied minutely by the linear code. A new rezoning algorithm is devised and it is successfully applied to express numerically the axisymmetric plasma perturbation in a cylindrical geometry. As for the resistive MHD modes we have developed nonlinear codes on the basis of the reduced set of the resistive MHD equations. By using the codes we have studied the major disruption processes and properties of the low n resistive modes. We have found that the effects of toroidicity and finite poloidal beta are very important. Considering the above conclusion we propose a new scenario of the initiation of the major disruption. (author)

  20. Multivariate analyses of small theropod dinosaur teeth and implications for paleoecological turnover through time.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derek W Larson

    Full Text Available Isolated small theropod teeth are abundant in vertebrate microfossil assemblages, and are frequently used in studies of species diversity in ancient ecosystems. However, determining the taxonomic affinities of these teeth is problematic due to an absence of associated diagnostic skeletal material. Species such as Dromaeosaurus albertensis, Richardoestesia gilmorei, and Saurornitholestes langstoni are known from skeletal remains that have been recovered exclusively from the Dinosaur Park Formation (Campanian. It is therefore likely that teeth from different formations widely disparate in age or geographic position are not referable to these species. Tooth taxa without any associated skeletal material, such as Paronychodon lacustris and Richardoestesia isosceles, have also been identified from multiple localities of disparate ages throughout the Late Cretaceous. To address this problem, a dataset of measurements of 1183 small theropod teeth (the most specimen-rich theropod tooth dataset ever constructed from North America ranging in age from Santonian through Maastrichtian were analyzed using multivariate statistical methods: canonical variate analysis, pairwise discriminant function analysis, and multivariate analysis of variance. The results indicate that teeth referred to the same taxon from different formations are often quantitatively distinct. In contrast, isolated teeth found in time equivalent formations are not quantitatively distinguishable from each other. These results support the hypothesis that small theropod taxa, like other dinosaurs in the Late Cretaceous, tend to be exclusive to discrete host formations. The methods outlined have great potential for future studies of isolated teeth worldwide, and may be the most useful non-destructive technique known of extracting the most data possible from isolated and fragmentary specimens. The ability to accurately assess species diversity and turnover through time based on isolated teeth

  1. Multivariate Analyses of Small Theropod Dinosaur Teeth and Implications for Paleoecological Turnover through Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Derek W.; Currie, Philip J.

    2013-01-01

    Isolated small theropod teeth are abundant in vertebrate microfossil assemblages, and are frequently used in studies of species diversity in ancient ecosystems. However, determining the taxonomic affinities of these teeth is problematic due to an absence of associated diagnostic skeletal material. Species such as Dromaeosaurus albertensis, Richardoestesia gilmorei, and Saurornitholestes langstoni are known from skeletal remains that have been recovered exclusively from the Dinosaur Park Formation (Campanian). It is therefore likely that teeth from different formations widely disparate in age or geographic position are not referable to these species. Tooth taxa without any associated skeletal material, such as Paronychodon lacustris and Richardoestesia isosceles, have also been identified from multiple localities of disparate ages throughout the Late Cretaceous. To address this problem, a dataset of measurements of 1183 small theropod teeth (the most specimen-rich theropod tooth dataset ever constructed) from North America ranging in age from Santonian through Maastrichtian were analyzed using multivariate statistical methods: canonical variate analysis, pairwise discriminant function analysis, and multivariate analysis of variance. The results indicate that teeth referred to the same taxon from different formations are often quantitatively distinct. In contrast, isolated teeth found in time equivalent formations are not quantitatively distinguishable from each other. These results support the hypothesis that small theropod taxa, like other dinosaurs in the Late Cretaceous, tend to be exclusive to discrete host formations. The methods outlined have great potential for future studies of isolated teeth worldwide, and may be the most useful non-destructive technique known of extracting the most data possible from isolated and fragmentary specimens. The ability to accurately assess species diversity and turnover through time based on isolated teeth will help illuminate

  2. Time trends in avoidable cancer mortality in Switzerland and neighbouring European countries 1996-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feller, Anita; Mark, Michael Thomas; Steiner, Annik; Clough-Gorr, Kerri M

    2015-01-01

    What are the trends in avoidable cancer mortality in Switzerland and neighbouring countries? Mortality data and population estimates 1996-2010 were obtained from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office for Switzerland and the World Health Organization Mortality Database (http://www.who.int/healthinfo/mortality_data/en/) for Austria, Germany, France and Italy. Age standardised mortality rates (ASMRs, European standard) per 100 000 person-years were calculated for the population Switzerland and neighbouring countries cancer mortality in persons Switzerland from 16.2 to 20.3 per 100 000 person years, EAPC 2.0 [95% CI 1.4 to 2.6]). Compared with its neighbouring countries, Switzerland showed the lowest rates for all groups of avoidable cancer mortality in males 2008-2010. Overall avoidable cancer mortality decreased, indicating achievements in cancer care and related health policies. However, increasing trends in avoidable cancer mortality through primary prevention for females suggest there is a need in Switzerland and its European neighbouring countries to improve primary prevention.

  3. Time trend of clinical cases of Lyme disease in two hospitals in Belgium, 2000-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Keukeleire, Mathilde; Vanwambeke, Sophie O; Kabamba, Benoît; Belkhir, Leila; Pierre, Philippe; Luyasu, Victor; Robert, Annie

    2017-12-05

    As several studies indicated an increase in Lyme disease (LD), notably in neighbouring countries, concerns have arisen regarding the evolution of Lyme disease in Belgium. In order to confirm or infirm the increase of LD in Belgium, we focused on hospital admissions of patients diagnosed with LD between 2000 and 2013 based on hospital admission databases from two hospitals in Belgium. Hospital databases are a stable recording system. We did a retrospective analysis of the medical files of patients hospitalized with Lyme disease in two Belgian hospitals between 2000 and 2013. The annual number of cases of LD for the two studied Belgian hospitals remained stable between 2000 and 2013, ranging from 1 for the Cliniques universitaires Saint-Luc to 15 for the the Clinique Saint-Pierre. No increasing trend were noted in the estimated annual incidence rate but the average estimated annual incidence rate was higher for the hospital Saint-Pierre (8.1 ± 3.7 per 100,000 inhabitants) than Saint-Luc (2.2 ± 1.5 per 100,000 inhabitants). The number of hospital cases of LD peaked between June and November. Based on hospital admissions with LD, no increasing trend was observed for the period 2000-2013 in the two studied Belgian hospitals. This is in line with other studies carried out in Belgium.

  4. The Evaluation of Real Time Milk Analyse Result Reliability in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oto Hanuš

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The good result reliability of regular analyzes of milk composition could improve the health monitoring of dairy cows and herd management. The aim of this study was the analysis of measurement of abilities and properties of RT (Real Time system (AfiLab = AfiMilk (NIR measurement unit (near infrared spectroscopy and electrical conductivity (C of milk by conductometry + AfiFarm (calibration and interpretation software for the analysis of individual milk samples (IMSs. There were 2 × 30 IMSs in the experiment. The reference values (RVs of milk components and properties (fat (F, proteins (P, lactose (L, C and the somatic cell count (SCC were determined by conventional (direct and indirect: conductometry (C; infrared spectroscopy 1 with the filter technology and 2 with the Fourier transformations (F, P, L; fluoro-opto-electronic cell counting (SCC in the film on the rotation disc (1 and by flow cytometry (2 methods. AfiLab method (alternative showed less close relationships as compared to the RVs as relationships between reference methods. This was expected. However, these relationships (r were mostly significant: F from .597 to .738 (P ≤ 0.01 and ≤ 0.001; P from .284 to .787 (P > 0.05 and P ≤ 0.001; C .773 (P ≤ 0.001. Correlations (r were not significant (P > 0.05: L from −.013 to .194; SCC from −.148 to −.133. Variability of the RVs explained the following percentages of variability in AfiLab results: F to 54.4 %; P to 61.9 %; L only 3.8 %; C to 59.7 %. Explanatory power (reliability of AfiLab results to the animal is increasing with the regularity of their measurements (principle of real time application. Correlation values r (x minus 1.64 × sd for confidence interval (one-sided at a level of 95 % can be used for an alternative method in assessing the calibration quality. These limits are F 0.564, P 0.784 and C 0.715 and can be essential with the further implementation of this advanced technology of dairy herd management.

  5. Including foreshocks and aftershocks in time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, Oliver S.

    2012-01-01

    Time‐independent probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis treats each source as being temporally and spatially independent; hence foreshocks and aftershocks, which are both spatially and temporally dependent on the mainshock, are removed from earthquake catalogs. Yet, intuitively, these earthquakes should be considered part of the seismic hazard, capable of producing damaging ground motions. In this study, I consider the mainshock and its dependents as a time‐independent cluster, each cluster being temporally and spatially independent from any other. The cluster has a recurrence time of the mainshock; and, by considering the earthquakes in the cluster as a union of events, dependent events have an opportunity to contribute to seismic ground motions and hazard. Based on the methods of the U.S. Geological Survey for a high‐hazard site, the inclusion of dependent events causes ground motions that are exceeded at probability levels of engineering interest to increase by about 10% but could be as high as 20% if variations in aftershock productivity can be accounted for reliably.

  6. Impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in children morbidity and mortality in Peru: Time series analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez, Victor; Michel, Fabiana; Toscano, Cristiana M; Bierrenbach, Ana Luiza; Gonzales, Marco; Alencar, Airlane Pereira; Ruiz Matus, Cuauhtemoc; Andrus, Jon K; de Oliveira, Lucia H

    2016-09-07

    Streptococcus pneumoniae is the leading cause of bacterial pneumonia, meningitis and sepsis in children worldwide. Despite available evidence on pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) impact on pneumonia hospitalizations in children, studies demonstrating PCV impact in morbidity and mortality in middle-income countries are still scarce. Given the disease burden, PCV7 was introduced in Peru in 2009, and then switched to PCV10 in late 2011. National public healthcare system provides care for 60% of the population, and national hospitalization, outpatient and mortality data are available. We thus aimed to assess the effects of routine PCV vaccination on pneumonia hospitalization and mortality, and acute otitis media (AOM) and all cause pneumonia outpatient visits in children under one year of age in Peru. We conducted a segmented time-series analysis using outcome-specific regression models. Study period was from January 2006 to December 2012. Data sources included the National information systems for hospitalization, mortality, outpatient visits, and RENACE, the national database of aggregated weekly notifications of pneumonia and other acute respiratory diseases (both hospitalized and non-hospitalized). Study outcomes included community acquired pneumonia outpatient visits, hospitalizations and deaths (ICD10 codes J12-J18); and AOM outpatient visits (H65-H67). Monthly age- and sex-specific admission, outpatient visit, and mortality rates per 100,000 children aged Peru. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  7. Twenty-five year socioeconomic trends in leisure-time and commuting physical activity among employed Finns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mäkinen, T; Borodulin, K; Laatikainen, T; Fogelholm, M; Prättälä, R

    2009-04-01

    The trend of socioeconomic differences in physical activity is largely unknown in Finland. In this study, we examined socioeconomic trends in leisure-time and commuting physical activity among Finns in 1978-2002. Nationwide data were derived from an annually repeated cross-sectional Finnish Adult Health Behavior Survey. People under the age of 25, students, the unemployed, and retirees were excluded from the analysis. The final data set included 25 513 women and 25 302 men. Socioeconomic variables included education, occupation, and household income. Odds ratios for being physically active and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. People with the lowest income were less leisure-time and commuting physically active. Among women, low occupational status was associated with high commuting physical activity whereas among men such an association was not found. No educational differences among men in leisure-time and commuting physical activity over time were found. Some indications were found that educational differences in leisure-time physical activity among women might have been reversed. Our data suggest that socioeconomic differences in leisure-time and commuting physical activity are quite small and have remained similar between 1978 and 2002.

  8. Long-term Measurements of Summer-time Ozone at the Walnut Grove Tower - Understanding Trends in the Boundary Layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmud, A.; Di, P.; Mims, D.; Avise, J.; DaMassa, J.; Kaduwela, A. P.

    2015-12-01

    The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has been monitoring boundary layer ozone at the Walnut Grove Tower (WGT) since 1996 for investigating regional transport and vertical profile. Walnut Grove is located between Sacramento and Stockton, CA in the Sacramento - San Joaquin Delta. Sampling inlets are positioned at 30-ft, 400-ft, 800-ft, 1200-ft and 1600-ft levels of the 2000-ft tower, which is one of the tallest monitoring towers in the Western US. Ozone, ambient temperature, wind speed, and wind direction are simultaneously measured at each level, and reported as hourly averages. The current study included analyses of available ozone and corresponding meteorological data for the months of June - September from 1996 - 2014 with objectives to: 1) explore trends and inter-annual variability of ozone, 2) examine any correlations between ozone and meteorological parameters, 3) understand interactions of ozone measured at various levels, and 4) assess how well a regulatory state-of-the-science air quality model such as the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) captures observation. Daily 1-hr maximum ozone has been consistently decreasing during the 1996 - 2014 period at a rate of ~1 ppb per year. This indicates that CARB's measures to control ambient ozone have been effective over the past years. Evolution of the vertical profile throughout the day shows that ozone is fairly homogeneously mixed between 1 - 5 pm, when mixing height typically reaches the maximum. Ozone at 30-ft shows the greatest variability because of its proximity to the ground and emissions sources - rises faster during morning hours (7 - 10 am) and declines more rapidly during evening hours (7 - 10 pm) compared to other levels. Air masses reaching the tower are predominantly southwesterly (247 - 257 deg.) at the bottom, and southwesterly to slightly northwesterly (254 - 302 deg.) at top levels. Daily 1-hr maximum ozone was negatively correlated with wind speed (i.e. ozone was high under

  9. Optical Time-Domain and Radio Imaging Analyses of the Dynamic Hearts of AGN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Krista Lynne

    distributions possibly consistent with passing obscuring material. We also conclude that this regime of optical variability is not produced by simple X-ray reprocessing. Finally, we explain how this work supports future robust accretion studies with upcoming large timing surveys.

  10. Machine learning methods as a tool to analyse incomplete or irregularly sampled radon time series data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janik, M; Bossew, P; Kurihara, O

    2018-07-15

    Machine learning is a class of statistical techniques which has proven to be a powerful tool for modelling the behaviour of complex systems, in which response quantities depend on assumed controls or predictors in a complicated way. In this paper, as our first purpose, we propose the application of machine learning to reconstruct incomplete or irregularly sampled data of time series indoor radon ( 222 Rn). The physical assumption underlying the modelling is that Rn concentration in the air is controlled by environmental variables such as air temperature and pressure. The algorithms "learn" from complete sections of multivariate series, derive a dependence model and apply it to sections where the controls are available, but not the response (Rn), and in this way complete the Rn series. Three machine learning techniques are applied in this study, namely random forest, its extension called the gradient boosting machine and deep learning. For a comparison, we apply the classical multiple regression in a generalized linear model version. Performance of the models is evaluated through different metrics. The performance of the gradient boosting machine is found to be superior to that of the other techniques. By applying learning machines, we show, as our second purpose, that missing data or periods of Rn series data can be reconstructed and resampled on a regular grid reasonably, if data of appropriate physical controls are available. The techniques also identify to which degree the assumed controls contribute to imputing missing Rn values. Our third purpose, though no less important from the viewpoint of physics, is identifying to which degree physical, in this case environmental variables, are relevant as Rn predictors, or in other words, which predictors explain most of the temporal variability of Rn. We show that variables which contribute most to the Rn series reconstruction, are temperature, relative humidity and day of the year. The first two are physical

  11. The Trend over Time of the GenderWage Gap in Italy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mussida, C.; Picchio, M.

    2011-01-01

    We analyse gender wage inequalities in Italy in the mid-1990s and in the mid-2000s. In this period important labour market developments occurred: institutional changes have loosened the use of flexible and atypical contracts; the female employment rates and educational levels have substantially

  12. Contrasting trends in light pollution across Europe based on satellite observed night time lights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennie, Jonathan; Davies, Thomas W; Duffy, James P; Inger, Richard; Gaston, Kevin J

    2014-01-21

    Since the 1970s nighttime satellite images of the Earth from space have provided a striking illustration of the extent of artificial light. Meanwhile, growing awareness of adverse impacts of artificial light at night on scientific astronomy, human health, ecological processes and aesthetic enjoyment of the night sky has led to recognition of light pollution as a significant global environmental issue. Links between economic activity, population growth and artificial light are well documented in rapidly developing regions. Applying a novel method to analysis of satellite images of European nighttime lights over 15 years, we show that while the continental trend is towards increasing brightness, some economically developed regions show more complex patterns with large areas decreasing in observed brightness over this period. This highlights that opportunities exist to constrain and even reduce the environmental impact of artificial light pollution while delivering cost and energy-saving benefits.

  13. OL1/OL2 License renewal for extended life-time: Class 1 piping load and strength analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemettinen, P.

    2015-01-01

    Teollisuuden Voima Oyj (TVO) operates two NPP units Olkiluoto 1 (OL1) and Olkiluoto 2 (OL2), that are identical 880 MWe BWRs. The units were originally designed for 40 years life-time. TVO is applying license renewal for extended life-time for 60 years plant life. Part of the license renewal project is to evaluate and update all Class 1 piping load and strength analyses. These analyses are done with the help of TVO's in-house Piping and Component Analysis and Monitoring System (PAMS). PAMS is basically a database system, consisting of separate geometry, material, loading, result and document databases. The thermo hydraulic analysis program RELAP5 is used to obtain temperature, pressure and mass flow for the piping loading areas. The piping strength analysis are carried out mainly with the Finnish FPIPE FEA program for all related thermal transient and dynamic load cases. The slides of the presentation have been added to the paper

  14. Online Marketing Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Horecká, Ivana

    2015-01-01

    This thesis deals with online marketing trends. Its main goal is to define the latest online marketing trends, create a website with the free online marketing trends, and analyse their effectiveness. The theoretical part brings a thorough description of the latest online marketing trends. Moreover, it provides an insight into the latest trends in the website development. The chosen online marketing trends defined in the theoretical part are subsequently applied on a newly created website. All...

  15. Time trends in lifetime incidence rates of first-time diagnosed anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa across 16 years in a Danish nationwide psychiatric registry study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Jensen, Christina Mohr

    2015-11-01

    To study recent time trends in the incidence of diagnosed anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN) based on nationwide psychiatric register data. The Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry was used to identify the incidence of diagnosed cases with AN and BN at the ages of 4-65 years from 1995 to 2010. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated and were adjusted for time trends in the total number of people diagnosed in psychiatry. Time trends were analyzed using JoinPoint regression analysis. A total of N = 5,902 persons had a first-time incidence of AN, and a total of N = 5,113 had first-time incidence of BN. Incidence rates increased for AN from 6.4 to 12.6 per 100,000 person-years, and for BN from 6.3 to 7.2 per 100,000 person-years. In 2010, the male-to-female ratio was 1:8 for AN, and 1:20 for BN. There was an earlier onset for AN than for BN, and age at incidence decreased during the observation period for AN but not for BN. A sizeable part of the increasing incidence rates for AN and in particular, the younger AN age groups, could be attributed to an increase in the total number of N = 249,607 persons with first-time diagnoses in psychiatry. Incidence rates had increased slightly for AN, but were stable for BN across 16 years in this nationwide study and to a large extent were reflective of a general increase in diagnosed mental disorders. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations in National Parks of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, H.; McGlynn, D. F.; Wu, Z.; Sive, B. C.

    2017-12-01

    A time scale decomposition technique, the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), has been employed to decompose the time scales in long-term ozone measurement data at 24 US National Park Service sites. Time scales of interest include the annual cycle, variability by large scale climate oscillations, and the long-term trend. The implementation of policy regulations was found to have had a greater effect on sites nearest to urban regions. Ozone daily mean values increased until around the late 1990s followed by decreasing trends during the ensuing decades for sites in the East, southern California, and northwestern Washington. Sites in the Midwest did not experience a reversal of trends from positive to negative until the mid- to late 2000s. The magnitude of the annual amplitude decreased for nine sites and increased for three sites. Stronger decreases in the annual amplitude occurred in the East, with more sites in the East experiencing decreases in annual amplitude than in the West. The date of annual ozone peaks and minimums has changed for 12 sites in total, but those with a shift in peak date did not necessarily have a shift in the trough date. There appeared to be a link between peak dates occurring earlier and a decrease in the annual amplitude. This is likely related to a decrease in ozone titration due to NOx emission reductions. Furthermore, it was found that the shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) regime from positive to negative in 1998-1999 resulting in an increase in occurrences of La Niña-like conditions had the effect of directing more polluted air masses from East Asia to higher latitudes over North America. This change in PDO regime was likely one main factor causing the increase in ozone concentrations on all time scales at an Alaskan site DENA-HQ.

  17. Time trends and occupational variation in the incidence of testicular cancer in the Nordic countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ylönen, Outi; Jyrkkiö, Sirkku; Pukkala, Eero; Syvänen, Kari; Boström, Peter J

    2018-02-20

    To describe the trends and occupational variation in the incidence of testicular cancer in the Nordic countries utilising national cancer registries, NORDCAN (NORDCAN project/database presents the incidence, mortality, prevalence and survival from >50 cancers in the Nordic countries) and NOCCA (Nordic Occupational Cancer) databases. We obtained the incidence data of testicular cancer for 5-year periods from 1960-1964 to 2000-2014 and for 5-year age-groups from the NORDCAN database. Morphological data on incident cases of seminoma and non-seminoma were obtained from national cancer registries. Age-standardised incidence rates (ASR) were calculated per 100 000 person-years (World Standard). Regression analysis was used to evaluate the annual change in the incidence of testicular cancer in each of the Nordic countries. The risk of testicular cancer in different professions was described based on NOCCA information and expressed as standardised incidence ratios (SIRs). During 2010-2014 the ASR for testicular cancer varied from 11.3 in Norway to 5.8 in Finland. Until 1998, the incidence was highest in Denmark. There has not been an increase in Denmark and Iceland since the 1990s, whilst the incidence is still strongly increasing in Norway, Sweden, and Finland. There were no remarkable changes in the ratio of seminoma and non-seminoma incidences during the past 50 years. There was no increase in the incidences in children and those of pension age. The highest significant excess risks of testicular seminoma were found in physicians (SIR 1.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-1.99), artistic workers (SIR 1.47, 95% CI 1.06-1.99) and religious workers etc. (SIR 1.33, 95% CI 1.14-1.56). The lowest SIRs of testicular seminoma were seen amongst cooks and stewards (SIR 0.56, 95% CI 0.29-0.98), and forestry workers (SIR 0.64, 95% CI 0.47-0.86). The occupational category of administrators was the only one with a significantly elevated SIR for testicular non-seminoma (SIR 1.21, 95

  18. From sexless to sexy: Why it is time for human genetics to consider and report analyses of sex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Matthew S; Smith, Phillip H; McKee, Sherry A; Ehringer, Marissa A

    2017-01-01

    Science has come a long way with regard to the consideration of sex differences in clinical and preclinical research, but one field remains behind the curve: human statistical genetics. The goal of this commentary is to raise awareness and discussion about how to best consider and evaluate possible sex effects in the context of large-scale human genetic studies. Over the course of this commentary, we reinforce the importance of interpreting genetic results in the context of biological sex, establish evidence that sex differences are not being considered in human statistical genetics, and discuss how best to conduct and report such analyses. Our recommendation is to run stratified analyses by sex no matter the sample size or the result and report the findings. Summary statistics from stratified analyses are helpful for meta-analyses, and patterns of sex-dependent associations may be hidden in a combined dataset. In the age of declining sequencing costs, large consortia efforts, and a number of useful control samples, it is now time for the field of human genetics to appropriately include sex in the design, analysis, and reporting of results.

  19. Patterns of glucose lowering drugs utilization in Portugal and in the Netherlands. Trends over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torre, Carla; Guerreiro, José; de Oliveira Martins, Sofia; Raposo, João Filipe; Martins, Ana Paula; Leufkens, Hubert

    2015-12-01

    To compare the temporal trends in the consumption patterns of glucose lowering drugs (GLD) between Portugal and the Netherlands from 2004 to 2013 and to examine possible reasons behind the cross-national variation found. All GLD (ATC pharmacological subgroup A10B) were selected for analysis. Consumption data were obtained for the 10-year period. Portuguese and Dutch drug estimates were obtained from nationwide databases. The consumption of GLD increased in Portugal from 52.9 defined daily dose per 1000 inhabitants per day (DHD) in 2004 to 70.0 DHD in 2013 and in the Netherlands from 44.9 DHD in 2004 to 50.7 DHD in 2013. In Portugal, the use of fixed-dose combinations, especially with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4) increased remarkably and in 2013 represented almost a quarter of total GLD consumption. In the Netherlands, the use of combinations was residual. The consumption of GLD rose over the 10-year period in both countries. However, Portuguese overall consumption and costs of GLD were higher. The differentially rapid uptake of DPP-4 inhibitors in Portugal was the main driver of the cost difference. Copyright © 2015 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Availability of added sugars in Brazil: distribution, food sources and time trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Renata Bertazzi; Claro, Rafael Moreira; Bandoni, Daniel Henrique; Mondini, Lenise; Monteiro, Carlos Augusto

    2012-03-01

    To describe the regional and socio-economic distribution of consumption of added sugar in Brazil in 2002/03, particularly products, sources of sugar and trends in the past 15 years. The study used data from Household Budget Surveys since the 1980s about the type and quantity of food and beverages bought by Brazilian families. Different indicators were analyzed: % of sugar calories over the total diet energy and caloric % of table sugar fractions and sugar added to processed food/ sugar calories of diet. In 2002/03, of the total energy available for consumption, 16.7% came from added sugar in all regional and socio-economic strata. The table sugar/ sugar added to processed food ratio was inversely proportional to increase in income. Although this proportion fell in the past 15 years, sugar added to processed food doubled, especially in terms of consumption of soft drinks and cookies. Brazilians consume more sugar than the recommended levels determined by the WHO and the sources of consumption of sugar have changed significantly.

  1. Quantitative risk trends deriving from PSA-based event analyses. Analysis of results from U.S.NRC's accident sequence precursor program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, Norio

    2004-01-01

    The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S.NRC) has been carrying out the Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program to identify and categorize precursors to potential severe core damage accident sequences using the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) technique. The ASP Program has identified a lot of risk significant events as precursors that occurred at U.S. nuclear power plants. Although the results from the ASP Program include valuable information that could be useful for obtaining and characterizing risk significant insights and for monitoring risk trends in nuclear power industry, there are only a few attempts to determine and develop the trends using the ASP results. The present study examines and discusses quantitative risk trends for the industry level, using two indicators, that is, the occurrence frequency of precursors and the annual core damage probability, deriving from the results of the ASP analysis. It is shown that the core damage risk at U.S. nuclear power plants has been lowered and the likelihood of risk significant events has been remarkably decreasing. As well, the present study demonstrates that two risk indicators used here can provide quantitative information useful for examining and monitoring the risk trends and/or risk characteristics in nuclear power industry. (author)

  2. Trend Analysis of Soil Salinity in Different Land Cover Types Using Landsat Time Series Data (case Study Bakhtegan Salt Lake)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghadosi, M. M.; Hasanlou, M.

    2017-09-01

    Soil salinity is one of the main causes of desertification and land degradation which has negative impacts on soil fertility and crop productivity. Monitoring salt affected areas and assessing land cover changes, which caused by salinization, can be an effective approach to rehabilitate saline soils and prevent further salinization of agricultural fields. Using potential of satellite imagery taken over time along with remote sensing techniques, makes it possible to determine salinity changes at regional scales. This study deals with monitoring salinity changes and trend of the expansion in different land cover types of Bakhtegan Salt Lake district during the last two decades using multi-temporal Landsat images. For this purpose, per-pixel trend analysis of soil salinity during years 2000 to 2016 was performed and slope index maps of the best salinity indicators were generated for each pixel in the scene. The results of this study revealed that vegetation indices (GDVI and EVI) and also salinity indices (SI-1 and SI-3) have great potential to assess soil salinity trends in vegetation and bare soil lands respectively due to more sensitivity to salt features over years of study. In addition, images of May had the best performance to highlight changes in pixels among different months of the year. A comparative analysis of different slope index maps shows that more than 76% of vegetated areas have experienced negative trends during 17 years, of which about 34% are moderately and highly saline. This percent is increased to 92% for bare soil lands and 29% of salt affected soils had severe salinization. It can be concluded that the areas, which are close to the lake, are more affected by salinity and salts from the lake were brought into the soil which will lead to loss of soil productivity ultimately.

  3. Complex analyses on clinical information systems using restricted natural language querying to resolve time-event dependencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safari, Leila; Patrick, Jon D

    2018-06-01

    This paper reports on a generic framework to provide clinicians with the ability to conduct complex analyses on elaborate research topics using cascaded queries to resolve internal time-event dependencies in the research questions, as an extension to the proposed Clinical Data Analytics Language (CliniDAL). A cascaded query model is proposed to resolve internal time-event dependencies in the queries which can have up to five levels of criteria starting with a query to define subjects to be admitted into a study, followed by a query to define the time span of the experiment. Three more cascaded queries can be required to define control groups, control variables and output variables which all together simulate a real scientific experiment. According to the complexity of the research questions, the cascaded query model has the flexibility of merging some lower level queries for simple research questions or adding a nested query to each level to compose more complex queries. Three different scenarios (one of them contains two studies) are described and used for evaluation of the proposed solution. CliniDAL's complex analyses solution enables answering complex queries with time-event dependencies at most in a few hours which manually would take many days. An evaluation of results of the research studies based on the comparison between CliniDAL and SQL solutions reveals high usability and efficiency of CliniDAL's solution. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Time Trends in Breast Cancer Among Indian Women Population: An Analysis of Population Based Cancer Registry Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaturvedi, Meesha; Vaitheeswaran, K; Satishkumar, K; Das, Priyanka; Stephen, S; Nandakumar, A

    2015-12-01

    The trends observed in cancer breast among Indian women are an indication of effect of changing lifestyle in population. To draw an appropriate inference regarding the trends of a particular type of cancer in a country, it is imperative to glance at the reliable data collected by Population Based Cancer Registries over a period of time. To give an insight of changing trends of breast cancer which have taken place over a period of time among women in Cancer Registries of India. Breast Cancer trends for invasive breast cancer in women in Indian Registries have varied during the selected period. Occurrence of breast cancers has also shown geographical variation in India. This data was collected by means of a 'Standard Core Proforma' designed by NCRP conforming to the data fields as suggested by International norms. The Proforma was filled by trained Registry workers based on interview/ hospital medical records/ supplementing data by inputs from treating surgeons/radiation oncologists/involved physicians/pathologists. The contents of the Proforma are entered into specifically created software and transmitted electronically to the coordinating center at Bangalore. The registries contributing to more number of years of data are called as older registries, while other recently established registries are called newer registries. While there has been an increase recorded in breast cancer in most of the registries, some of them have recorded an insignificant increase. Comparison of Age Adjusted Rates (AARs) among Indian Registries has been carried out after which trends observed in populations covered by Indian Registries are depicted. A variation in broad age groups of females and the proneness of females developing breast cancer over the period 1982 to 2010 has been shown. Comparisons of Indian registries with International counterparts have also been carried out. There are marked changes in incidence rates of cancer breast which have occurred in respective registries in a

  5. Effects of MHRA drug safety advice on time trends in prescribing volume and indices of clinical toxicity for quinine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acheampong, Paul; Cooper, Gill; Khazaeli, Behshad; Lupton, David J; White, Sue; May, Margaret T; Thomas, Simon H L

    2013-01-01

    Aims To ascertain the effects of the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency's (MHRA) safety update in June 2010 on the volume of prescribing of quinine and on indices of quinine toxicity. Methods We analysed quarterly primary care total and quinine prescribing data for England and quinine prescribing volume for individual Primary Care Trusts in the North East of England from 2007/8 to 2011/12 obtained from the ePACT.net database. We also analysed quinine toxicity enquiries to the National Poisons Information Service (NPIS) via Toxbase® and by telephone between 2004/5 and 2011/12. Joinpoint regression and Pearson's correlation tests were used to ascertain changes in trends in prescribing and indices of toxicity and associations between prescribing and indices of toxicity, respectively. Results Total prescribing continued to increase, but annual growth in quinine prescribing in England declined from 6.0 to −0.6% following the MHRA update [difference −0.04 (95% confidence interval −0.07 to −0.01) quinine prescriptions per 100 patients per quarter, P = 0.0111]. Much larger reductions were observed in Primary Care Trusts that introduced comprehensive prescribing reviews. The previously increasing trend in Toxbase® quinine searches was reversed [difference −19.76 (95% confidence interval −39.28 to −9.20) user sessions per quarter, P = 0.0575]. Telephone enquiries to NPIS for quinine have declined, with stabilization of the proportion of moderate to severe cases of quinine poisoning since the update. Conclusions The MHRA advice was followed by limited reductions in the growth in quinine prescribing and in indicators of quinine overdose and toxicity. Quinine prescribing, however, remains common, and further efforts are needed to reduce availability and use. PMID:23594200

  6. Time trend tendency (1988-2014 years) of organochlorine pesticide levels in the adipose tissue of Veracruz inhabitants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calderón-Garcidueñas, Ana Laura; Waliszewski, Stefan M; Ruiz-Ramos, Rubén; Del Carmen Martinez-Valenzuela, María

    2018-03-10

    The population that lives in areas where organochlorine pesticides were spread in the past is still exposed to them through contaminated food, particulate matter, and vapors. Due to their lipophilic properties and resistance to metabolic reactions, they accumulate in tissues and fluids rich in lipids. The aim of the study was to monitor the concentrations of organochlorine pesticides in forensic adipose tissue samples of adult inhabitants of Veracruz City, Mexico, and compare their time trend levels from 1988 to 2014. During the study, hexachlorobenzene (HCB); lindane; β-hexachorocyclohexane; p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (pp'DDE); p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (p,p'-DDT); and o,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (o,p'-DDT) were determined. Our survey was divided into two periods: first, from the years 1988 to 1999, during which DDT was allowed to fight malaria and dengue vectors and the second from the years 2001 to 2014, after the DDT ban. A total of 1435 samples were analyzed. There were substantial differences in the forecasted time trend values of p,p'-DDE and p,p'-DDT in human adipose tissue samples in the two different periods. During the first period, p,p'-DDE decrease time trend was 1.198 mg/kg on lipid base per year; for the second one, decrease was 0.128 mg/kg on lipid base per year. p,p'-DDT decreased 0.507 mg/kg on lipid base during the first period and 0.039 mg/kg on lipid base for the second. The different concentrations may be explained by the cessation of fresh exposure after the first period and a more equilibrated decontamination tendency during the second period. This model was useful to show the decrease in the concentration of pesticides in human adipose tissue samples.

  7. Trends in IT Innovation to Build a Next Generation Bioinformatics Solution to Manage and Analyse Biological Big Data Produced by NGS Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre G. de Brevern

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Sequencing the human genome began in 1994, and 10 years of work were necessary in order to provide a nearly complete sequence. Nowadays, NGS technologies allow sequencing of a whole human genome in a few days. This deluge of data challenges scientists in many ways, as they are faced with data management issues and analysis and visualization drawbacks due to the limitations of current bioinformatics tools. In this paper, we describe how the NGS Big Data revolution changes the way of managing and analysing data. We present how biologists are confronted with abundance of methods, tools, and data formats. To overcome these problems, focus on Big Data Information Technology innovations from web and business intelligence. We underline the interest of NoSQL databases, which are much more efficient than relational databases. Since Big Data leads to the loss of interactivity with data during analysis due to high processing time, we describe solutions from the Business Intelligence that allow one to regain interactivity whatever the volume of data is. We illustrate this point with a focus on the Amadea platform. Finally, we discuss visualization challenges posed by Big Data and present the latest innovations with JavaScript graphic libraries.

  8. Trends in IT Innovation to Build a Next Generation Bioinformatics Solution to Manage and Analyse Biological Big Data Produced by NGS Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Brevern, Alexandre G.; Meyniel, Jean-Philippe; Fairhead, Cécile; Neuvéglise, Cécile; Malpertuy, Alain

    2015-01-01

    Sequencing the human genome began in 1994, and 10 years of work were necessary in order to provide a nearly complete sequence. Nowadays, NGS technologies allow sequencing of a whole human genome in a few days. This deluge of data challenges scientists in many ways, as they are faced with data management issues and analysis and visualization drawbacks due to the limitations of current bioinformatics tools. In this paper, we describe how the NGS Big Data revolution changes the way of managing and analysing data. We present how biologists are confronted with abundance of methods, tools, and data formats. To overcome these problems, focus on Big Data Information Technology innovations from web and business intelligence. We underline the interest of NoSQL databases, which are much more efficient than relational databases. Since Big Data leads to the loss of interactivity with data during analysis due to high processing time, we describe solutions from the Business Intelligence that allow one to regain interactivity whatever the volume of data is. We illustrate this point with a focus on the Amadea platform. Finally, we discuss visualization challenges posed by Big Data and present the latest innovations with JavaScript graphic libraries. PMID:26125026

  9. Trends in IT Innovation to Build a Next Generation Bioinformatics Solution to Manage and Analyse Biological Big Data Produced by NGS Technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Brevern, Alexandre G; Meyniel, Jean-Philippe; Fairhead, Cécile; Neuvéglise, Cécile; Malpertuy, Alain

    2015-01-01

    Sequencing the human genome began in 1994, and 10 years of work were necessary in order to provide a nearly complete sequence. Nowadays, NGS technologies allow sequencing of a whole human genome in a few days. This deluge of data challenges scientists in many ways, as they are faced with data management issues and analysis and visualization drawbacks due to the limitations of current bioinformatics tools. In this paper, we describe how the NGS Big Data revolution changes the way of managing and analysing data. We present how biologists are confronted with abundance of methods, tools, and data formats. To overcome these problems, focus on Big Data Information Technology innovations from web and business intelligence. We underline the interest of NoSQL databases, which are much more efficient than relational databases. Since Big Data leads to the loss of interactivity with data during analysis due to high processing time, we describe solutions from the Business Intelligence that allow one to regain interactivity whatever the volume of data is. We illustrate this point with a focus on the Amadea platform. Finally, we discuss visualization challenges posed by Big Data and present the latest innovations with JavaScript graphic libraries.

  10. A practical procedure for the selection of time-to-failure models based on the assessment of trends in maintenance data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Louit, D.M.; Pascual, R.; Jardine, A.K.S.

    2009-01-01

    Many times, reliability studies rely on false premises such as independent and identically distributed time between failures assumption (renewal process). This can lead to erroneous model selection for the time to failure of a particular component or system, which can in turn lead to wrong conclusions and decisions. A strong statistical focus, a lack of a systematic approach and sometimes inadequate theoretical background seem to have made it difficult for maintenance analysts to adopt the necessary stage of data testing before the selection of a suitable model. In this paper, a framework for model selection to represent the failure process for a component or system is presented, based on a review of available trend tests. The paper focuses only on single-time-variable models and is primarily directed to analysts responsible for reliability analyses in an industrial maintenance environment. The model selection framework is directed towards the discrimination between the use of statistical distributions to represent the time to failure ('renewal approach'); and the use of stochastic point processes ('repairable systems approach'), when there may be the presence of system ageing or reliability growth. An illustrative example based on failure data from a fleet of backhoes is included.

  11. A practical procedure for the selection of time-to-failure models based on the assessment of trends in maintenance data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Louit, D.M. [Komatsu Chile, Av. Americo Vespucio 0631, Quilicura, Santiago (Chile)], E-mail: rpascual@ing.puc.cl; Pascual, R. [Centro de Mineria, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Av. Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Santiago (Chile); Jardine, A.K.S. [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto, 5 King' s College Road, Toronto, Ont., M5S 3G8 (Canada)

    2009-10-15

    Many times, reliability studies rely on false premises such as independent and identically distributed time between failures assumption (renewal process). This can lead to erroneous model selection for the time to failure of a particular component or system, which can in turn lead to wrong conclusions and decisions. A strong statistical focus, a lack of a systematic approach and sometimes inadequate theoretical background seem to have made it difficult for maintenance analysts to adopt the necessary stage of data testing before the selection of a suitable model. In this paper, a framework for model selection to represent the failure process for a component or system is presented, based on a review of available trend tests. The paper focuses only on single-time-variable models and is primarily directed to analysts responsible for reliability analyses in an industrial maintenance environment. The model selection framework is directed towards the discrimination between the use of statistical distributions to represent the time to failure ('renewal approach'); and the use of stochastic point processes ('repairable systems approach'), when there may be the presence of system ageing or reliability growth. An illustrative example based on failure data from a fleet of backhoes is included.

  12. The Vegetation Trends and Drivers in Beijing-Tianjing Region from 1982 TO 2013 Based on Time Series Gimms NDVI3g

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, S.; Tian, H.; Wang, X.; Li, H.; He, Y.

    2018-04-01

    Vegetation plays a leading role in ecosystems. Plant communities are the main components of ecosystems. Green plants in ecosystems are the primary producers, and they provide the living organic matter for the survival of other organisms. The dynamics of most landscapes are driven by both natural processes and human activities. In this study, the growing season GIMMS NDVI3g and climatic data were used to analyse the vegetation trends and drivers in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1982 to 2013. Result shows that, the vegetation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows overall restoration and partial degradation trend. The significant restoration region accounts for 61.5 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, while the significant degradation region accounts for 2.1 %. The dominant climatic factor for time series NDVI were analyzed using the multi-linear regression model. Vegetation growth in 17.9 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is dominated by temperature, 35.5 % is dominated by precipitation, and 11.68 % is dominated by solar radiance. Human activities play important role for vegetation restoration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, where the large scale forest restoration programs are the main human activities, such as the three-north shelterbelt construction project, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei sandstorm source control project and grain for green projects.

  13. THE VEGETATION TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN BEIJING-TIANJING-HEIBEI REGION FROM 1982 TO 2013 BASED ON TIME SERIES GIMMS NDVI3g

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Liu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Vegetation plays a leading role in ecosystems. Plant communities are the main components of ecosystems. Green plants in ecosystems are the primary producers, and they provide the living organic matter for the survival of other organisms. The dynamics of most landscapes are driven by both natural processes and human activities. In this study, the growing season GIMMS NDVI3g and climatic data were used to analyse the vegetation trends and drivers in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1982 to 2013. Result shows that, the vegetation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows overall restoration and partial degradation trend. The significant restoration region accounts for 61.5 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, while the significant degradation region accounts for 2.1 %. The dominant climatic factor for time series NDVI were analyzed using the multi-linear regression model. Vegetation growth in 17.9 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is dominated by temperature, 35.5 % is dominated by precipitation, and 11.68 % is dominated by solar radiance. Human activities play important role for vegetation restoration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, where the large scale forest restoration programs are the main human activities, such as the three-north shelterbelt construction project, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei sandstorm source control project and grain for green projects.

  14. Time trends in upper gastrointestinal diseases and Helicobacter pylori infection in a multiracial Asian population--a 20-year experience over three time periods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leow, A H-R; Lim, Y-Y; Liew, W-C; Goh, K-L

    2016-04-01

    Marked epidemiological changes in upper gastrointestinal diseases and Helicobacter pylori infection have taken place in the Asian Pacific region. In particular, differences with respect to race in the multiracial Asian population in Malaysia have been important and interesting. A time trend study of upper gastrointestinal disease and H. pylori infection in three time periods: 1989-1990, 1999-2000 and 2009-2010 spanning a period of 20 years was carried out. Consecutive first time gastroscopies carried out on patients attending the University of Malaya Medical Center were studied. Diagnoses and H. pylori infection status were carefully recorded. A steady decline in prevalence of duodenal ulcer (DU) and gastric ulcer (GU) from 21.1% to 9.5% to 5.0% and from 11.9% to 9.4% to 9.9% while an increase in erosive oesophagitis (EO) from 2.0% to 8.4% to 9.5% (chi-square for trend; P Chinese and Indians but the difference over time was most marked in Malays. There was a steady decline in the proportion of patients with gastric and oesophageal cancers. Peptic ulcers have declined significantly over a 20-year period together with a decline in H. pylori infection. In contrast, a steady increase in erosive oesophagitis was observed. Gastric and oesophageal squamous cell cancers have declined to low levels. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Time trends in population prevalence of eating disorder behaviors and their relationship to quality of life.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deborah Mitchison

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To examine temporal trends in the burden of eating disorder (ED features, as estimated by the composite of their prevalence and impact upon quality of life (QoL over a period of 10 years. METHODOLOGY: Representative samples of 3010 participants in 1998 and 3034 participants in 2008 from the South Australian adult population were assessed for endorsement of ED features (objective binge eating, extreme dieting, and purging were assessed in both years; subjective binge eating and extreme weight/shape concerns were also assessed in 2008 and QoL using the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form (SF-36. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From 1998 to 2008 significant increases in the prevalence of objective binge eating (2.7% to 4.9%, p0.05. Multiple linear regressions found that in 1998 only objective binge eating significantly predicted scores on the mental health summary scale of the SF-36; however, in 2008 extreme weight/shape concerns, extreme dieting, and subjective binge eating were also significant predictors. Objective binge eating and extreme dieting were significant predictors of scores on the physical health summary scale of the SF-36 in both 1998 and 2008. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: The prevalence of ED behaviors increased between 1998 and 2008, while their impact on QoL remained stable. This suggests an overall increase in the burden of disordered eating from 1998 to 2008. Given that binge eating and extreme dieting predict impairment in QoL, the necessity of interventions to prevent both under- and over-eating is reinforced.

  16. Treatment Complexity in Cystic Fibrosis: Trends over Time and Associations with Site-Specific Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawicki, Gregory S.; Ren, Clement L.; Konstan, Michael W.; Millar, Stefanie J.; Pasta, David J.; Quittner, Alexandra L.

    2014-01-01

    Background Patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) have increasing treatment complexity and high treatment burden. We describe trends in treatment complexity and evaluate its relationship with health outcomes. Methods Using Epidemiologic Study of Cystic Fibrosis (ESCF) data, we developed a treatment complexity score (TCS) from 37 chronic therapies and assessed change by age group (6–13, 14–17, and 18+ years) over a three year period. Differences in average site TCS were evaluated by quartiles based on FEV1, BMI, or Treatment Burden score on the Cystic Fibrosis Questionnaire-Revised (CFQ-R). Results TCS scores were calculated for 7252 individual patients (42% child, 16% adolescent, 43% adult) across 153 sites. In 2003, mean TCS was 11.1 for children, 11.8 for adolescents, and 12.1 for adults. In all 3 age groups, TCS increased over 3 years; the increase in TCS from 2003–2005 for children was 1.25 (95% CI 1.16–1.34), for adolescents 0.77 (0.62–0.93), and for adults 1.20 (1.08–1.31) (all pbased on FEV1 quartile. Mean TCS was higher in the highest BMI z-score quartile. Across all 3 versions of the CFQ-R, mean TCS was lower at sites in the highest quartiles (lowest burden) for CFQ-R Treatment Burden scores. Conclusion Treatment complexity was highest among adults with CF, although over 3 years, we observed a significant increase in treatment complexity in all age groups. Such increases in treatment complexity pose a challenge to patient self-management and adherence. Future research is needed to understand the associations between treatment complexity and subsequent health outcomes to reduce treatment burden and improve disease management. PMID:23352205

  17. EPQ model for imperfect production processes with rework and random preventive machine time for deteriorating items and trended demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shah Nita H.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Economic production quantity (EPQ model has been analyzed for trended demand, and units in inventory are subject to constant rate. The system allows rework of imperfect units, and preventive maintenance time is random. A search method is used to study the model. The proposed methodology is validated by a numerical example. The sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the critical model parameters. It is observed that the rate of change of demand, and the deterioration rate have a significant impact on the decision variables and the total cost of an inventory system. The model is highly sensitive to the production and demand rate.

  18. Real-time on-line space research laboratory environment monitoring with off-line trend and prediction analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

    2007-06-01

    With the International Space Station currently operational, a significant amount of acceleration data is being down-linked, processed and analyzed daily on the ground on a continuous basis for the space station reduced gravity environment characterization, the vehicle design requirements verification and science data collection. To help understand the impact of the unique spacecraft environment on the science data, an artificial intelligence monitoring system was developed, which detects in near real time any change in the reduced gravity environment susceptible to affect the on-going experiments. Using a dynamic graphical display, the monitoring system allows science teams, at any time and any location, to see the active vibration disturbances, such as pumps, fans, compressor, crew exercise, re-boost and extra-vehicular activities that might impact the reduced gravity environment the experiments are exposed to. The monitoring system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many increments (an increment usually lasts 6 months) collected onboard the station for selected disturbances. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential systems failures. The monitoring system has two operating modes: online and offline. Both near real-time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line detection and trend analysis are discussed in this paper.

  19. A multi-criteria evaluation system for marine litter pollution based on statistical analyses of OSPAR beach litter monitoring time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulz, Marcus; Neumann, Daniel; Fleet, David M; Matthies, Michael

    2013-12-01

    During the last decades, marine pollution with anthropogenic litter has become a worldwide major environmental concern. Standardized monitoring of litter since 2001 on 78 beaches selected within the framework of the Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic (OSPAR) has been used to identify temporal trends of marine litter. Based on statistical analyses of this dataset a two-part multi-criteria evaluation system for beach litter pollution of the North-East Atlantic and the North Sea is proposed. Canonical correlation analyses, linear regression analyses, and non-parametric analyses of variance were used to identify different temporal trends. A classification of beaches was derived from cluster analyses and served to define different states of beach quality according to abundances of 17 input variables. The evaluation system is easily applicable and relies on the above-mentioned classification and on significant temporal trends implied by significant rank correlations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. A retrospective time trend study of firearm and non- firearm homicide ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USA, firearm ownership is known to be a significant predictor of ... firearm homicide after 2010 coincided with police fast-tracking new firearm licence applications. Cape Town's coloured .... provided a measure of person-time. We carried out ...

  1. Study on homogenization of synthetic GNSS-retrieved IWV time series and its impact on trend estimates with autoregressive noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klos, Anna; Pottiaux, Eric; Van Malderen, Roeland; Bock, Olivier; Bogusz, Janusz

    2017-04-01

    A synthetic benchmark dataset of Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) was created within the activity of "Data homogenisation" of sub-working group WG3 of COST ES1206 Action. The benchmark dataset was created basing on the analysis of IWV differences retrieved by Global Positioning System (GPS) International GNSS Service (IGS) stations using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecats (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA-Interim). Having analysed a set of 120 series of IWV differences (ERAI-GPS) derived for IGS stations, we delivered parameters of a number of gaps and breaks for every certain station. Moreover, we estimated values of trends, significant seasonalities and character of residuals when deterministic model was removed. We tested five different noise models and found that a combination of white and autoregressive processes of first order describes the stochastic part with a good accuracy. Basing on this analysis, we performed Monte Carlo simulations of 25 years long data with two different types of noise: white as well as combination of white and autoregressive processes. We also added few strictly defined offsets, creating three variants of synthetic dataset: easy, less-complicated and fully-complicated. The 'Easy' dataset included seasonal signals (annual, semi-annual, 3 and 4 months if present for a particular station), offsets and white noise. The 'Less-complicated' dataset included above-mentioned, as well as the combination of white and first order autoregressive processes (AR(1)+WH). The 'Fully-complicated' dataset included, beyond above, a trend and gaps. In this research, we show the impact of manual homogenisation on the estimates of trend and its error. We also cross-compare the results for three above-mentioned datasets, as the synthetized noise type might have a significant influence on manual homogenisation. Therefore, it might mostly affect the values of trend and their uncertainties when inappropriately handled. In a future, the synthetic dataset

  2. Trends over time in congenital malformations in live-born children conceived after assisted reproductive technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsen, Anna-Karina Aaris; Bergh, Christina; Skjaerven, Rolv

    2018-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Children born after assisted reproductive technology (ART), particularly singletons, have been shown to have an increased risk of congenital malformations compared with children born after spontaneous conception. We wished to study if there has been a change in the risk of major...... congenital malformations in children conceived after ART compared with children born after spontaneous conception during the latest decades? MATERIAL AND METHODS: Population-based cohort study including 90 201 ART children and 482 552 spontaneous conception children born in Denmark, Finland, Norway...... and Sweden. Both singletons and twins born after in vitro fertilization, intracytoplasmatic sperm injection and frozen embryo transfer were included. The children were included from when the national Nordic ART registries were established until 2007. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used...

  3. Trends and sensitivities of low streamflow extremes to discharge timing and magnitude in Pacific Northwest mountain streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick R. Kormos; Charlie Luce; Seth J. Wenger; Wouter R. Berghuijs

    2016-01-01

    Path analyses of historical streamflow data from the Pacific Northwest indicate that the precipitation amount has been the dominant control on the magnitude of low streamflow extremes compared to the air temperature-affected timing of snowmelt runoff. The relative sensitivities of low streamflow to precipitation and temperature changes have important...

  4. MEG time-frequency analyses for pre- and post-surgical evaluation of patients with epileptic rhythmic fast activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sueda, Keitaro; Takeuchi, Fumiya; Shiraishi, Hideaki; Nakane, Shingo; Asahina, Naoko; Kohsaka, Shinobu; Nakama, Hideyuki; Otsuki, Taisuke; Sawamura, Yutaka; Saitoh, Shinji

    2010-02-01

    To evaluate the effectiveness of surgery for epilepsy, we analyzed rhythmic fast activity by magnetoencephalography (MEG) before and after surgery using time-frequency analysis. To assess reliability, the results obtained by pre-surgical MEG and intraoperative electrocorticography were compared. Four children with symptomatic localization-related epilepsy caused by circumscribed cortical lesion were examined in the present study using 204-channel helmet-shaped MEG with a sampling rate of 600Hz. One patient had dysembryoplastic neuroepithelial tumor (DNT) and three patients had focal cortical dysplasia (FCD). Aberrant areas were superimposed, to reconstruct 3D MRI images, and illustrated as moving images. In three patients, short-time Fourier transform (STFT) analyses of MEG showed rhythmic activities just above the lesion with FCD and in the vicinity of DNT. In one patient with FCD in the medial temporal lobe, rhythmic activity appeared in the ipsilateral frontal lobe and temporal lateral aspect. These findings correlate well with the results obtained by intraoperative electrocorticography. After the surgery, three patients were relieved of their seizures, and the area of rhythmic MEG activity disappeared or become smaller. One patient had residual rhythmic MEG activity, and she suffered from seizure relapse. Time-frequency analyses using STFT successfully depicted MEG rhythmic fast activity, and would provide valuable information for pre- and post-surgical evaluations to define surgical strategies for patients with epilepsy.

  5. Longitudinal trends in climate drive flowering time clines in North American Arabidopsis thaliana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samis, Karen E; Murren, Courtney J; Bossdorf, Oliver; Donohue, Kathleen; Fenster, Charles B; Malmberg, Russell L; Purugganan, Michael D; Stinchcombe, John R

    2012-06-01

    Introduced species frequently show geographic differentiation, and when differentiation mirrors the ancestral range, it is often taken as evidence of adaptive evolution. The mouse-ear cress (Arabidopsis thaliana) was introduced to North America from Eurasia 150-200 years ago, providing an opportunity to study parallel adaptation in a genetic model organism. Here, we test for clinal variation in flowering time using 199 North American (NA) accessions of A. thaliana, and evaluate the contributions of major flowering time genes FRI, FLC, and PHYC as well as potential ecological mechanisms underlying differentiation. We find evidence for substantial within population genetic variation in quantitative traits and flowering time, and putatively adaptive longitudinal differentiation, despite low levels of variation at FRI, FLC, and PHYC and genome-wide reductions in population structure relative to Eurasian (EA) samples. The observed longitudinal cline in flowering time in North America is parallel to an EA cline, robust to the effects of population structure, and associated with geographic variation in winter precipitation and temperature. We detected major effects of FRI on quantitative traits associated with reproductive fitness, although the haplotype associated with higher fitness remains rare in North America. Collectively, our results suggest the evolution of parallel flowering time clines through novel genetic mechanisms.

  6. Time trends in social differences in nutrition habits of a Lithuanian population: 1994-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kriaucioniene Vilma

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During the post-communist transition period, political, economic, and social changes affected the lifestyles of the Lithuanian population, including their nutritional habits. However, people of lower socio-economic position were more vulnerable to these changes. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the trends in selected food habits of the Lithuanian adult population by their level of education and place of residence from 1994 to 2010. Methods The data were obtained from nine biannual cross-sectional postal surveys of Lithuanian health behaviours, beginning in 1994. Each survey used a randomly selected nationally representative sample of 3000 inhabitants aged 20-64 drawn from the population register. In total, 7358 men and 9796 women participated in these surveys. Questions about food consumption were included within all health behaviour questionnaires. Results During the transition period, use of vegetable oil in cooking and the frequency of consumption of fresh vegetables increased, use of butter on bread decreased, and the proportion of women drinking high-fat milk declined. Lithuanians with higher education reported more frequent use of vegetable oil in cooking as well as daily consumption of fresh vegetables than those with a lower level of education. Consumption of high-fat milk was inversely associated with educational background. In addition, the proportion of persons spreading butter on bread increased with higher education level. The greatest urban-rural difference was observed in high-fat milk consumption. The increase in the use of vegetable oil in cooking, and the reduction of spreading butter on bread was more evident among less educated and rural inhabitants. Meanwhile, a greater proportion of the rural population, compared to urban, reduced their use of butter on bread. Daily consumption of fresh vegetables increased most among highly educated Lithuanians. Conclusions The data from our study indicate

  7. Modeling seasonal leptospirosis transmission and its association with rainfall and temperature in Thailand using time-series and ARIMAX analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadsuthi, Sudarat; Modchang, Charin; Lenbury, Yongwimon; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Triampo, Wannapong

    2012-07-01

    To study the number of leptospirosis cases in relations to the seasonal pattern, and its association with climate factors. Time series analysis was used to study the time variations in the number of leptospirosis cases. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used in data curve fitting and predicting the next leptospirosis cases. We found that the amount of rainfall was correlated to leptospirosis cases in both regions of interest, namely the northern and northeastern region of Thailand, while the temperature played a role in the northeastern region only. The use of multivariate ARIMA (ARIMAX) model showed that factoring in rainfall (with an 8 months lag) yields the best model for the northern region while the model, which factors in rainfall (with a 10 months lag) and temperature (with an 8 months lag) was the best for the northeastern region. The models are able to show the trend in leptospirosis cases and closely fit the recorded data in both regions. The models can also be used to predict the next seasonal peak quite accurately. Copyright © 2012 Hainan Medical College. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Seasonal trend analysis and ARIMA modeling of relative humidity and wind speed time series around Yamula Dam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eymen, Abdurrahman; Köylü, Ümran

    2018-02-01

    Local climate change is determined by analysis of long-term recorded meteorological data. In the statistical analysis of the meteorological data, the Mann-Kendall rank test, which is one of the non-parametrical tests, has been used; on the other hand, for determining the power of the trend, Theil-Sen method has been used on the data obtained from 16 meteorological stations. The stations cover the provinces of Kayseri, Sivas, Yozgat, and Nevşehir in the Central Anatolia region of Turkey. Changes in land-use affect local climate. Dams are structures that cause major changes on the land. Yamula Dam is located 25 km northwest of Kayseri. The dam has huge water body which is approximately 85 km2. The mentioned tests have been used for detecting the presence of any positive or negative trend in meteorological data. The meteorological data in relation to the seasonal average, maximum, and minimum values of the relative humidity and seasonal average wind speed have been organized as time series and the tests have been conducted accordingly. As a result of these tests, the following have been identified: increase was observed in minimum relative humidity values in the spring, summer, and autumn seasons. As for the seasonal average wind speed, decrease was detected for nine stations in all seasons, whereas increase was observed in four stations. After the trend analysis, pre-dam mean relative humidity time series were modeled with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) model which is statistical modeling tool. Post-dam relative humidity values were predicted by ARIMA models.

  9. Pre-waste-emplacement ground-water travel time sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplan, P.G.

    1993-01-01

    Yucca Mountain, Nevada is a potential site for a high-level radioactive-waste repository. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were performed to estimate critical factors in the performance of the site with respect to a criterion in terms of pre-waste-emplacement ground-water travel time. The degree of failure in the analytical model to meet the criterion is sensitive to the estimate of fracture porosity in the upper welded unit of the problem domain. Fracture porosity is derived from a number of more fundamental measurements including fracture frequency, fracture orientation, and the moisture-retention characteristic inferred for the fracture domain

  10. Modeling and Forecasting of Water Demand in Isfahan Using Underlying Trend Concept and Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Sadeghi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Accurate water demand modeling for the city is very important for forecasting and policies adoption related to water resources management. Thus, for future requirements of water estimation, forecasting and modeling, it is important to utilize models with little errors. Water has a special place among the basic human needs, because it not hampers human life. The importance of the issue of water management in the extraction and consumption, it is necessary as a basic need. Municipal water applications is include a variety of water demand for domestic, public, industrial and commercial. Predicting the impact of urban water demand in better planning of water resources in arid and semiarid regions are faced with water restrictions. Materials and Methods: One of the most important factors affecting the changing technological advances in production and demand functions, we must pay special attention to the layout pattern. Technology development is concerned not only technically, but also other aspects such as personal, non-economic factors (population, geographical and social factors can be analyzed. Model examined in this study, a regression model is composed of a series of structural components over time allows changed invisible accidentally. Explanatory variables technology (both crystalline and amorphous in a model according to which the material is said to be better, but because of the lack of measured variables over time can not be entered in the template. Model examined in this study, a regression model is composed of a series of structural component invisible accidentally changed over time allows. In this study, structural time series (STSM and ARMA time series models have been used to model and estimate the water demand in Isfahan. Moreover, in order to find the efficient procedure, both models have been compared to each other. The desired data in this research include water consumption in Isfahan, water price and the monthly pay

  11. The Use of Categorized Time-Trend Reporting of Radiation Oncology Incidents: A Proactive Analytical Approach to Improving Quality and Safety Over Time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, Anthony; Delaney, Geoff P.; Cassapi, Lynette; Barton, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: Radiotherapy is a common treatment for cancer patients. Although incidence of error is low, errors can be severe or affect significant numbers of patients. In addition, errors will often not manifest until long periods after treatment. This study describes the development of an incident reporting tool that allows categorical analysis and time trend reporting, covering first 3 years of use. Methods and Materials: A radiotherapy-specific incident analysis system was established. Staff members were encouraged to report actual errors and near-miss events detected at prescription, simulation, planning, or treatment phases of radiotherapy delivery. Trend reporting was reviewed monthly. Results: Reports were analyzed for the first 3 years of operation (May 2004-2007). A total of 688 reports was received during the study period. The actual error rate was 0.2% per treatment episode. During the study period, the actual error rates reduced significantly from 1% per year to 0.3% per year (p < 0.001), as did the total event report rates (p < 0.0001). There were 3.5 times as many near misses reported compared with actual errors. Conclusions: This system has allowed real-time analysis of events within a radiation oncology department to a reduced error rate through focus on learning and prevention from the near-miss reports. Plans are underway to develop this reporting tool for Australia and New Zealand.

  12. Weekly Trends in Preschoolers’ Physical Activity and Sedentary Time in Childcare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leigh M. Vanderloo

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This study sought to examine how the physical activity levels and sedentary time of preschoolers attending center-based childcare varied across the week. Sex differences were also explored. Participants (n = 101 wore Actical™ accelerometers (15 s epoch for five consecutive days during childcare hours only. A multivariate repeated measures analysis of variance was used to evaluate levels of sedentary, light, and moderate-to-vigorous (MVPA physical activity across the five weekdays. Total physical activity (TPA was analyzed separately in a univariate repeated measures ANOVA. Sex was entered as an additional between-subjects factor. Levels of sedentary time, LPA, and TPA across the week were found to be statistically significant, and can best be described by quadratic effects. Participants’ activity levels and sedentary time typically peaked mid-week. Levels of physical activity and sedentary time were not found to significantly differ based on sex. Childcare centers may benefit from the introduction and/or modification of active play-based programming and curricula, particularly at the start and end of the week where preschoolers’ activity levels tend to be lower. Additional investigations are required to confirm these findings.

  13. Incidence and Trends in Psychopathology Symptoms over Time in Adults with Severe to Profound Intellectual Disability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horovitz, Max; Matson, Johnny L.; Sipes, Megan; Shoemaker, Mary; Belva, Brian; Bamburg, Jay W.

    2011-01-01

    Individuals with intellectual disability (ID) have a high risk for developing comorbid psychopathology. While researchers have shown that symptoms of psychopathology remain relatively stable in children with ID over time, little research has been conducted to demonstrate symptom stability for adults with ID. Incidence of psychopathology symptoms…

  14. Trends over time in tree and seedling phylogenetic diversity indicate regional differences in forest biodiversity change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; Christopher W. Woodall

    2012-01-01

    Changing climate conditions may impact the short-term ability of forest tree species to regenerate in many locations. In the longer term, tree species may be unable to persist in some locations while they become established in new places. Over both time frames, forest tree biodiversity may change in unexpected ways. Using repeated inventory measurements five years...

  15. Time trends in recurrence of juvenile nasopharyngeal angiofibroma: Experience of the past 4 decades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Anupam; Mishra, Subhash Chandra

    2016-01-01

    An analysis of time distribution of juvenile nasopharyngeal angiofibroma (JNA) from the last 4 decades is presented. Sixty recurrences were analyzed as per actuarial survival. SPSS software was used to generate Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves and time distributions were compared by Log-rank, Breslow and Tarone-Ware test. The overall recurrence rate was 17.59%. Majority underwent open transpalatal approach(es) without embolization. The probability of detecting a recurrence was 95% in first 24months and comparison of KM curves of 4 different time periods was not significant. This is the first and largest series to address the time-distribution. The required follow up period is 2years. Our recurrence is just half of the largest series (reported so far) suggesting the superiority of transpalatal techniques. The similarity of curves suggests less likelihood for recent technical advances to influence the recurrence that as per our hypothesis is more likely to reflect tumor biology per se. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Trends of Concurrent Ankle Arthroscopy at the Time of Operative Treatment of Ankle Fracture: A National Database Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackermann, Jakob; Fraser, Ethan J; Murawski, Christopher D; Desai, Payal; Vig, Khushdeep; Kennedy, John G

    2016-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to report trends associated with concurrent ankle arthroscopy at the time of operative treatment of ankle fracture. The current procedural terminology (CPT) billing codes were used to search the PearlDiver Patient Record Database and identify all patients who were treated for acute ankle fracture in the United States. The Medicare Standard Analytic Files were searchable between 2005 and 2011 and the United Healthcare Orthopedic Dataset from 2007 to 2011. Annual trends were expressed only between 2007 and 2011, as it was the common time period among both databases. Demographic factors were identified for all procedures as well as the cost aspect using the Medicare data set. In total, 32 307 patients underwent open reduction internal fixation (ORIF) of an ankle fracture, of whom 313 (1.0%) had an ankle arthroscopy performed simultaneously. Of those 313 cases, 70 (22.4%) patients received microfracture treatment. Between 2005 and 2011, 85 203 patients were treated for an ankle fracture whether via ORIF or closed treatment. Of these, a total of 566 patients underwent arthroscopic treatment within 7 years. The prevalence of arthroscopy after ankle fracture decreased significantly by 45% from 2007 to 2011 (Pankle fracture treatment, it appears that only a small proportion of surgeons in the United States perform these procedures concurrently. Therapeutic, Level IV: Retrospective. © 2015 The Author(s).

  17. Development of a time-trend model for analyzing and predicting case-pattern of Lassa fever epidemics in Liberia, 2013-2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olugasa, Babasola O; Odigie, Eugene A; Lawani, Mike; Ojo, Johnson F

    2015-01-01

    The objective was to develop a case-pattern model for Lassa fever (LF) among humans and derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of LF cases in Liberia in view of the prevailing under-reporting and public health challenge posed by the disease in the country. A retrospective 5 years data of LF distribution countrywide among humans were used to train a time-trend model of the disease in Liberia. A time-trend quadratic model was selected due to its goodness-of-fit (R2 = 0.89, and P Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. We proposed a computationally feasible two-stage space-time permutation approach to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on LF in Liberia.

  18. Temporal trends in non-occupational sedentary behaviours from Australian Time Use Surveys 1992, 1997 and 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chau Josephine Y

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Current epidemiological data highlight the potential detrimental associations between sedentary behaviours and health outcomes, yet little is known about temporal trends in adult sedentary time. This study used time use data to examine population trends in sedentary behaviours in non-occupational domains and more specifically during leisure time. Methods We conducted secondary analysis of population representative data from the Australian Time Use Surveys 1992, 1997 and 2006 involving respondents aged 20 years and over with completed time use diaries for two days. Weighted samples for each survey year were: n = 5851 (1992, n = 6419 (1997 and n = 5505 (2006. We recoded all primary activities by domain (sleep, occupational, transport, leisure, household, education and intensity (sedentary, light, moderate. Adjusted multiple linear regressions tested for differences in time spent in non-occupational sedentary behaviours in 1992 and 1997 with 2006 as the reference year. Results Total non-occupational sedentary time was slightly lower in 1997 than in 2006 (mean = 894 min/2d and 906 min/2d, respectively; B = −11.2; 95%CI: -21.5, -0.9. Compared with 2006, less time was spent in 1997 in sedentary transport (B-6.7; 95%CI: -10.4, -3.0 and sedentary education (B = −6.3; 95%CI: -10.5, -2.2 while household and leisure sedentary time remained stable. Time engaged in different types of leisure-time sedentary activities changed between 1997 and 2006: leisure-time computer use increased (B = −26.7; 95%CI: -29.5, -23.8, while other leisure-time sedentary behaviours (e.g., reading, listening to music, hobbies and crafts showed small concurrent reductions. In 1992, leisure screen time was lower than in 2006: TV-viewing (B = −24.2; 95%CI: -31.2, -17.2, computer use (B = −35.3; 95%CI: -37.7, -32.8. In 2006, 90 % of leisure time was spent sedentary, of which 53 % was screen time. Conclusions Non

  19. Time trends in alcohol intake in early pregnancy and official recommendations in Denmark, 1998-2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kesmodel, Ulrik S; Petersen, Gitte L; Henriksen, Tine B

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: In 1999, Danish health authorities modified their recommendation to pregnant women, condoning some alcohol intake. In 2007, the recommendation was changed to one of alcohol abstention. We aimed to assess changes in average alcohol intake (drinks/week) and alcohol binge drinking...... in early pregnancy from 1998 to 2013 in relation to the changes in official recommendations in 1999 (condoning some intake) and 2007 (abstention). MATERIAL AND METHODS: All Danish-speaking pregnant women attending routine antenatal care at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Aarhus University...... on a single occasion), and the timing (gestational week) of these episodes. Additional questions on binge drinking defined as ≥3 drinks on a single occasion were asked separately from 2000. A question assessed the average number of alcohol-containing drinks per week the woman consumed currently at the time...

  20. Time trends in the etiology of chronic pancreatitis in South India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajesh, Gopalakrishna; Girish, Banavara Narasimhamurthy; Panicker, Suprabha; Balakrishnan, Vallath

    2014-01-01

    Recent reports indicate a decline in prevalence of classical tropical chronic pancreatitis (TCP). We studied the etiologies and risk factors over a 14-year period at a tertiary care university hospital. We compared the etiology in chronic pancreatitis (CP) patients presenting and followed-up in our Pancreas Clinic over two time periods (2000-06 and 2007-13). Idiopathic chronic pancreatitis (ICP) was the predominant etiology seen over the two time periods. However an increase in prevalence of alcoholic chronic pancreatitis (ACP) during the latter time period suggests that it may be emerging as a dominant etiology over recent years. Hypertriglyceridemia and hyperparathyroidism were uncommon causes of non-alcoholic CP. Autoimmune pancreatitis was noted only during 2007-13, but remains a rare cause of CP. There are multiple risk factors for CP in our population. The high prevalence of ICP indicates need closer examination of risk factors and ICP pathogenesis. ACP appears to be emerging as a dominant cause of CP which suggests a need to reorient preventive strategies.

  1. Cost consequences due to reduced ulcer healing times - analyses based on the Swedish Registry of Ulcer Treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Öien, Rut F; Forssell, Henrik; Ragnarson Tennvall, Gunnel

    2016-10-01

    Resource use and costs for topical treatment of hard-to-heal ulcers based on data from the Swedish Registry of Ulcer Treatment (RUT) were analysed in patients recorded in RUT as having healed between 2009 and 2012, in order to estimate potential cost savings from reductions in frequency of dressing changes and healing times. RUT is used to capture areas of improvement in ulcer care and to enable structured wound management by registering patients with hard-to-heal leg, foot and pressure ulcers. Patients included in the registry are treated in primary care, community care, private care, and inpatient hospital care. Cost calculations were based on resource use data on healing time and frequency of dressing changes in Swedish patients with hard-to-heal ulcers who healed between 2009 and 2012. Per-patient treatment costs decreased from SEK38 223 in 2009 to SEK20 496 in 2012, mainly because of shorter healing times. Frequency of dressing changes was essentially the same during these years, varying from 1·4 to 1·6 per week. The total healing time was reduced by 38%. Treatment costs for the management of hard-to-heal ulcers can be reduced with well-developed treatment strategies resulting in shortened healing times as shown in RUT. © 2015 Medicalhelplines.com Inc and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Time-trends and congener profiles of PBDEs and PCBs in California peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, June-Soo; Holden, Arthur; Chu, Vivian; Kim, Michele; Rhee, Alexandra; Patel, Puja; Shi, Yating; Linthicum, Janet; Walton, Brian J; McKeown, Karen; Jewell, Nicholas P; Hooper, Kim

    2009-12-01

    High levels (microg/g lw) of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were measured in peregrine falcon eggs from California (n = 90 eggs from 52 birds, 38 nest sites, collected 1986-2007, SigmaPBDEs median = 4.53, range = 0.08-53.1). Over the past 22 years, PBDE levels more than tripled each decade in the eggs, whereas PCB levels had no significant changes. PBDE levels were highest in eggs from major California cities ("Big Cities"), whereas PCBs showed no difference across the regions. For PBDEs, Big City eggs had markedly different patterns from Coastal eggs: BDE-209 and the higher brominated PBDEs (hexa-nona) were dominant congeners in Big City eggs, while BDE-47 and -99 were dominant in Coastal eggs. In many of the birds that gave multiple eggs over time ("time series"), PBDE patterns changed over time: the high proportions of BDE-209 and higher brominated PBDEs (short half-lives) in young birds contrasted with increasingly higher proportions of BDE-153 (long half-life) and other lower brominated PBDEs as the birds aged. These data are consistent with metabolic debromination of BDE-209 (t(1/2) = 1-2 weeks) to the lower brominated PBDEs, with accumulation over time of BDE-153 (t(1/2) = 3-4 years). In contrast, PCB patterns showed no differences by locations, and did not change over time. Diet (prey birds) may explain the urban PBDE pattern, as the patterns in urban pigeons and peregrines were similar, with high proportions of BDE-209 and the higher-brominated PBDEs. Also, our prey data (feathers from peregrine nests) showed urban peregrines having a higher proportion (>2 fold) of granivorous/opportunistic birds (e.g., "introduced feral" pigeons, mourning doves, starlings) in their diet than coastal peregrines. In summary, these data indicate that BDE-209 exits consumer products as an environmental contaminant to be taken up by wildlife (particularly in urban locations), and undergoes metabolic debromination to the banned lower

  3. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of unsaturated flow travel time in the CHnz unit of Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nichols, W.E.; Freshley, M.D.

    1991-10-01

    This report documents the results of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses conducted to improve understanding of unsaturated zone ground-water travel time distribution at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The US Department of Energy (DOE) is currently performing detailed studies at Yucca Mountain to determine its suitability as a host for a geologic repository for the containment of high-level nuclear wastes. As part of these studies, DOE is conducting a series of Performance Assessment Calculational Exercises, referred to as the PACE problems. The work documented in this report represents a part of the PACE-90 problems that addresses the effects of natural barriers of the site that will stop or impede the long-term movement of radionuclides from the potential repository to the accessible environment. In particular, analyses described in this report were designed to investigate the sensitivity of the ground-water travel time distribution to different input parameters and the impact of uncertainty associated with those input parameters. Five input parameters were investigated in this study: recharge rate, saturated hydraulic conductivity, matrix porosity, and two curve-fitting parameters used for the van Genuchten relations to quantify the unsaturated moisture-retention and hydraulic characteristics of the matrix. 23 refs., 20 figs., 10 tabs

  4. Time trends for prostate cancer mortality in Brazil and its geographic regions: An age-period-cohort analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braga, Sonia Faria Mendes; de Souza, Mirian Carvalho; Cherchiglia, Mariangela Leal

    2017-10-01

    In the 1980s, an increase in mortality rates for prostate cancer was observed in North America and developed European countries. In the 1990s, however, mortality rates decreased for these countries, an outcome related to early detection of the disease. Conversely, an upward trend in mortality rates was observed in Brazil. This study describe the trends in mortality for prostate cancer in Brazil and geographic regions (North, Northeast, South, Southeast, and Central-West) between 1980 until 2014 and analyze the influence of age, period, and cohort effects on mortality rates. This time-series study used data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and population data from Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The effects on mortality rates were examined using age-period-cohort (APC) models. Crude and standardized mortality rates showed an upward trend for Brazil and its regions more than 2-fold the last 30 years. Age effects showed an increased risk of death in all regions. Period effects showed a higher risk of death in the finals periods for the North and Northeast. Cohort effects showed risk of death was higher for younger than older generations in Brazil and regions, mainly Northeast (RR Adjusted =3.12, 95% CI 1.29-1.41; RR Adjusted =0.28, 95% CI 0.26-0.30, respectively). The increase in prostate cancer mortality rates in Brazil and its regions was mainly due to population aging. The differences in mortality rates and APC effects between regions are related to demographic differences and access of health services across the country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Temperature Trends in the Polar Mesosphere between 2002-2007 using TIMED/SABER Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, Richard A.; Kutepov, Alexander A.; Pesnell, William Dean; Latteck, Ralph; Russell, James M.

    2008-01-01

    The TIMED Satellite was launched on December 7, 2001 to study the dynamics and energy of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. The TIMED/SABER instrument is a limb scanning infrared radiometer designed to measure a large number of minor constituents as well as the temperature of the region. In this study, we have concentrated on the polar mesosphere, to investigate the temperature characteristics as a function of spatial and temporal considerations. We used the recently revised SABER dataset (1.07) that contains improved temperature retrievals in the Earth polar summer regions. Weekly averages are used to make comparisons between the winter and summer, as well as to study the variability in different quadrants of each hemisphere. For each year studied, the duration of polar summer based on temperature measurements compares favorably with the PMSE (Polar Mesospheric Summer Echoes) season measured by radar at the ALOMAR Observatory in Norway (69 N). The PMSE period should also define the summer period suitable for the occurrence of polar mesospheric clouds. The unusual short and relatively warm polar summer in the northern hemisphere

  6. Time-space trends in Swedish divorce behaviour, 1911-1974.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandström, Glenn

    2011-01-01

    This study examines how the divorce rates in Sweden have varied over time and across different geographical areas during the period 1911-1974, and how these variations can be connected to the political, socio-economic and cultural development in Sweden. The analysis provides empirical support for the hypothesis that increased divorce rates have been the result of changes in the structural conditions that determine the degree of economic interdependence between spouses. There is a strong connection between the degree of urbanization and the divorce rate on a regional level for the entire research period. The statistical analysis of the regional data indicates that these patterns are connected to the more diversified economy that has developed in urban settings, in the form of a more qualified labour market and higher wages for females. These characteristics resulted in a faster and more pronounced reduction of economic interdependence between spouses, which made divorce more attainable in these areas as compared with rural settings.

  7. Autism Prevalence Trends Over Time in Denmark: Changes in Prevalence and Age at Diagnosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parner, Erik; Schendel, Diana; Thorsen, Poul

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of changing age at diagnosis on the diagnosed prevalence of autism among different birth cohorts. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Children were identified in the Danish Medical Birth Registry and psychiatric outcomes were obtained via linkage...... risk comparing the 1998-1999 birth cohort with the 1994-1995 birth cohort at age 3 years was 1.69 (95% CI, 1.24-2.31), which decreased to 1.23 (95% CI, 1.11-1.37) at age 11 years. Similar results were observed for childhood autism. CONCLUSIONS: Shifts in age at diagnosis inflated the observed...... prevalence of autism in young children in the more recent cohorts compared with the oldest cohort. This study supports the argument that the apparent increase in autism in recent years is at least in part attributable to decreases in the age at diagnosis over time....

  8. Mapping Invasive Tamarisk (Tamarix: A Comparison of Single-Scene and Time-Series Analyses of Remotely Sensed Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul H. Evangelista

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we tested the Maximum Entropy model (Maxent for its application and performance in remotely sensing invasive Tamarix sp. Six Landsat 7 ETM+ satellite scenes and a suite of vegetation indices at different times of the growing season were selected for our study area along the Arkansas River in Colorado. Satellite scenes were selected for April, May, June, August, September, and October and tested in single-scene and time-series analyses. The best model was a time-series analysis fit with all spectral variables, which had an AUC = 0.96, overall accuracy = 0.90, and Kappa = 0.79. The top predictor variables were June tasselled cap wetness, September tasselled cap wetness, and October band 3. A second time-series analysis, where the variables that were highly correlated and demonstrated low predictive strengths were removed, was the second best model. The third best model was the October single-scene analysis. Our results may prove to be an effective approach for mapping Tamarix sp., which has been a challenge for resource managers. Of equal importance is the positive performance of the Maxent model in handling remotely sensed datasets.

  9. Analysed potential of big data and supervised machine learning techniques in effectively forecasting travel times from fused data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Šemanjski

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Travel time forecasting is an interesting topic for many ITS services. Increased availability of data collection sensors increases the availability of the predictor variables but also highlights the high processing issues related to this big data availability. In this paper we aimed to analyse the potential of big data and supervised machine learning techniques in effectively forecasting travel times. For this purpose we used fused data from three data sources (Global Positioning System vehicles tracks, road network infrastructure data and meteorological data and four machine learning techniques (k-nearest neighbours, support vector machines, boosting trees and random forest. To evaluate the forecasting results we compared them in-between different road classes in the context of absolute values, measured in minutes, and the mean squared percentage error. For the road classes with the high average speed and long road segments, machine learning techniques forecasted travel times with small relative error, while for the road classes with the small average speeds and segment lengths this was a more demanding task. All three data sources were proven itself to have a high impact on the travel time forecast accuracy and the best results (taking into account all road classes were achieved for the k-nearest neighbours and random forest techniques.

  10. Time trends in dietary fat intake in a sample of German children and adolescents between 2000 and 2010: not quantity, but quality is the issue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libuda, Lars; Alexy, Ute; Kersting, Mathilde

    2014-01-14

    Dietary fat intake in childhood may influence the risk for developing chronic diseases. The objective of the present study was to examine secular trends in the parameters of fat intake between 2000 and 2010 in a sample of German children and adolescents (n 808) participating in the Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed (DONALD) Study. Dietary data from 4380 3 d weighed dietary records were analysed using repeated-measures regression to determine time trends in fat quantity, i.e. the intake of total fat, and in fat quality, i.e. the ratios of SFA, MUFA and PUFA. In young children (2-3 years) and in adolescents (13-18 years), total fat intake remained stable over time, but decreased by 0·08 % of total energy (%E) per year in 4-12-year-old children. In 2010, median fat intake was at the upper end of the recommendations. SFA intake decreased slightly in 2-3- and 4-12-year-old children by 0·09 and 0·05 %E per year, respectively. MUFA and PUFA intakes remained stable in all the age groups except in adolescents. Here, PUFA intake decreased initially, but increased between 2005 and 2010. In 2010, only between 3 and 18 % of the respective age groups had an intake of SFA or PUFA within the recommendations. In conclusion, fat quantity and quality did not change substantially between 2000 and 2010. Fat quality, in particular, needs to be improved, since a large percentage of our sample did not meet the recommended intakes for SFA and PUFA.

  11. A Study of the Equality of Cable Insulations by comparing aging trend using an Oxidation Induction Time Measurement Test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Kyungheum; Bhang, Keugjin; Jeong, Sunchul

    2014-01-01

    Usually, the environmental qualification test is carried out by the cable manufacturer and the test report is presented while the cable manufacturer supplies the tested cables in nuclear power plant. If a cable manufacturer has environmentally qualified a cable for nuclear power plant more than a decade ago and the composition of the cable material is same, is it acceptable to use the old EQ report for recently manufactured cable? Even though the manufacturer insists the composition of the tested cable and recently manufactured cable's material are same, there can some questions or opposing opinions for two cables, tested cable and recently manufactured cable's equality. In this case, how can I determine the equality for the two cables? It is well known method to use FT-IR to determine the similarity of cable materials. FT-IR is easy tool to compare compositions of each material. But FT-IR method is not proper to compare aging trend of these materials. Oxidation induction time(OIT) testing is a technique that can be used to evaluate aging of organic materials and life assessment technique for cables used in nuclear power plants. In this paper, I studied the OIT technique to compare aging trend for the tested cable and recently manufactured cable to determine the equality for the two cables. To study a equality analysis for cable materials, OIT measurement tests were performed for two cable insulation(produced in 1995 and produced in 2013) which were supplied from same manufacturer. The two cables were irradiated up to 40 Mrad to simulate normal 40 years and thermally aged for 144 hours at 170 .deg. C equals to 40 years qualified life at 90 .deg. C. The OIT measurement were made in order to compare aging trends of the '95 cable and the '13 cable, the test were performed for three sequential steps; initial, after Normal Radiation and after Thermal Aging. The OIT measurement results at the temperature of 225 .deg. C showed very similar degradation

  12. Estimated and forecasted trends in domain specific time-use and energy expenditure among adults in Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dearth-Wesley, Tracy; Popkin, Barry M; Ng, Shu Wen

    2014-01-30

    Examination of historical trends and projections in estimated energy expenditure in Russia is important given the country's economic downturns and growth. Nationally representative data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) from 1995-2011 was used to determine the metabolic equivalents of task (MET)-hours per week from occupational, domestic, travel, and active leisure physical activity (PA) domains, as well as sedentary leisure time (hours per week) among adults 18-60 years. Additionally, we projected what these values would be like in 2020 and 2030 if observed trends continue. Among male adults, the largest contributor to total PA was occupational PA followed by travel PA. In contrast, domestic PA followed by occupational PA contributed most to total PA among female adults. Total PA was 282.9 MET-hours per week in 1995 and declined to 231.7 in 2011. Total PA is projected to decrease to 216.5 MET-hours per week in 2020 and to 193.0 MET-hours per week in 2030. The greatest relative declines are occurring in travel PA. Female adults are also exhibiting significant declines in domestic PA. Changes in occupational and active leisure PA are less distinct. Policies and initiatives are needed to counteract the long-term decline of overall physical activity linked with a modernizing lifestyle and economy among Russian adults.

  13. Interpreting time trends and biomagnification of PCBs in the Baltic region using the equilibrium lipid partitioning approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nfon, Erick; Cousins, Ian T.

    2006-01-01

    Multi-year monitoring data for PCBs in abiotic media and biota collected from the Baltic region were compiled into a database and analyzed using the equilibrium lipid partitioning (ELP) approach to study temporal trends as well as to investigate food web biomagnification. Statistically significant reductions in ELP concentrations between 1987 and 2001 were observed in guillemots, air, and some fish species and a general, but not always statistically significant decline in concentrations was observed throughout the Baltic ecosystem. Estimated clearance half-lives ranged from 2.7-10.7 years. The database contained concentrations for a range of different Baltic species, which comprise a well-known Baltic food web. It was possible to derive the trophic position of the species in this food web and relate them to ELP concentrations. A significant positive correlation between ELP concentrations and trophic position was obtained. Estimated food web magnification factors ranged between 1.9 and 5.1 for selected congeners. - The equilibrium lipid partitioning approach is applied to a large Baltic database of PCB concentrations in abiotic and biota media to investigate time trends and biomagnification

  14. Time trends and changes in the distribution of malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon Region, 2004-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isac da SF Lima

    Full Text Available Recent efforts to reduce malaria incidence have had some successes. Nevertheless, malaria persists as a significant public health problem in the Brazilian Amazon. The objective of this study was to describe changes in malaria case characteristics and to identify trends in malaria incidence in the Brazilian Amazon. This study used data from the Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance and Case Notification Information System from 2004 to 2013. The annual parasite incidence (API was calculated and joinpoint regression was used to assess the trends in API over time. There was a sharp increase in API in the state of Acre, followed by two periods of decrease. Pará also presented inconsistent decreases over the study period. Amapá, Amazonas, Rondônia, and Roraima showed statistically significant decreases over the period. The sharpest decrease occurred in Rondônia, with a reduction of 21.7% in the average annual percent change (AAPC (AAPC: -21.7%; 95% confidence interval: -25.4%, -17.8%; p < 0.05. This panorama of malaria incidence highlights the importance of integrating evidence-based malaria surveillance and control. Malaria is highly preventable, and eliminating its transmission should be a goal in coming decades.

  15. Assessment and prediction of road accident injuries trend using time-series models in Kurdistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parvareh, Maryam; Karimi, Asrin; Rezaei, Satar; Woldemichael, Abraha; Nili, Sairan; Nouri, Bijan; Nasab, Nader Esmail

    2018-01-01

    Road traffic accidents are commonly encountered incidents that can cause high-intensity injuries to the victims and have direct impacts on the members of the society. Iran has one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to model the patterns of road traffic accidents leading to injury in Kurdistan province, Iran. A time-series analysis was conducted to characterize and predict the frequency of road traffic accidents that lead to injury in Kurdistan province. The injuries were categorized into three separate groups which were related to the car occupants, motorcyclists and pedestrian road traffic accident injuries. The Box-Jenkins time-series analysis was used to model the injury observations applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) from March 2009 to February 2015 and to predict the accidents up to 24 months later (February 2017). The analysis was carried out using R-3.4.2 statistical software package. A total of 5199 pedestrians, 9015 motorcyclists, and 28,906 car occupants' accidents were observed. The mean (SD) number of car occupant, motorcyclist and pedestrian accident injuries observed were 401.01 (SD 32.78), 123.70 (SD 30.18) and 71.19 (SD 17.92) per year, respectively. The best models for the pattern of car occupant, motorcyclist, and pedestrian injuries were the ARIMA (1, 0, 0), SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 0, 0) 12 , and SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1) 12 , respectively. The motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries showed a seasonal pattern and the peak was during summer (August). The minimum frequency for the motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries were observed during the late autumn and early winter (December and January). Our findings revealed that the observed motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries had a seasonal pattern that was explained by air temperature changes overtime. These findings call the need for close monitoring of the

  16. Trends in hospital admissions and surgical procedures for degenerative lumbar spine disease in England: a 15-year time-series study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivasubramaniam, Vinothan; Patel, Hitesh C; Ozdemir, Baris A; Papadopoulos, Marios C

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Low back pain (LBP), from degenerative lumbar spine disease, represents a significant burden on healthcare resources. Studies worldwide report trends attributable to their country's specific demographics and healthcare system. Considering England's specific medico-socioeconomic conditions, we investigate recent trends in hospital admissions and procedures for LBP, and discuss the implications for the allocation of healthcare resources. Design Retrospective cohort study using Hospital Episode Statistics data relating to degenerative lumbar spine disease in England, between 1999 and 2013. Regression models were used to analyse trends. Outcome measures Trends in the number of admissions and procedures for LBP, mean patient age, gender and length of stay. Results Hospital admissions and procedures have increased significantly over the study period, from 127.09 to 216.16 and from 24.5 to 48.83 per 100 000, respectively, (pdisease, and highlight the need for services capable of dealing with the increased comorbidity burden associated with an ageing patient group. PMID:26671956

  17. Who is using snus? - Time trends, socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of snus users in the ageing Swedish population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norberg Margareta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The prevalence of smoking in Sweden has decreased in recent decades, and is now among the lowest in the world. During the same period, the use of Swedish moist oral snuff, a smokeless tobacco called snus, has increased. Few studies have evaluated time trends of the socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of snus users in Sweden. This paper contributes to filling that gap. Methods This study utilized the Linnaeus Database, which links national registers with comprehensive individual data on socioeconomic status (SES to health data from a large ongoing health survey, the Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP. The VIP targets the entire middle-aged population of Västerbotten county at ages 40, 50 and 60 years with yearly cross-sectional surveys including self-reported data on tobacco habits. Time trends of snus use among 92,563 VIP-participants across different areas of residence and smoking groups were investigated graphically. Logistic regression was performed to estimate the associations between SES and geographical variables and current use versus non-use of snus. Results Overall, in parallel to decreasing smoking, the increasing trend of snus use in this middle-aged population continues, particularly in 40-year-olds. In both genders, the highest prevalence of snus use was observed among previous smokers. The prevalence of snus use also increased over time among smokers, and was consistently higher compared to those who had never smoked. Among males - both those who had never smoked and previous smokers - low education (OR 1.21, 95%CI 1.06-1.40 and OR 1.28, 95%CI 1.14-1.43, living alone (OR 1.16, 95%CI 1.07-1.27 and OR 1.13, 95%ci 1.04-1.23, low income and living in rural areas was associated with using snus, while this was not seen among male current smokers. Among women, living alone was associated with using snus irrespective of smoking habits. Among female smokers, the OR for snus use increased with higher

  18. Energy contribution to Latin American INDCs: Analyzing sub-regional trends with a TIMES model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Postic, Sebastien; Selosse, Sandrine; Maïzi, Nadia

    2017-01-01

    Central and South America and the Caribbean countries share energy and climate features that are quite different from the rest of the world, including a highly renewable energy mix and very high renewable energy potentials, along with high deforestation and degradation rates which call for regional answers to regional issues. This paper assesses the impact of national contributions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change using an energy prospective model from the MarkAl/TIMES family. This approach enables a bottom-up comparison between past pledges (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions) and the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) agreed on at COP21. Long-term economic optimization leads to decarbonizing the power sector even in the absence of climate constraints. Stringent climate policies as modeled here achieve emission reductions of 40% below the current baseline by 2050. NDCs produce stronger emission reductions than NAMAs at regional scale; however, the first contributor to emission reductions in absolute terms in Latin America is the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-Use (AFOLU) sector, not energy. - Highlights: • We analyze energy-bound climate mitigation in Latin America with a bottom-up model. • We derive five policy scenarios based on past and current pledges to the UNFCCC. • Despite a clean BAU power mix, the region can cut emissions by up to 40% by 2050. • INDCs lead to stronger emission reductions than former NAMAs. • Energy-only measures would overlook significant abatement potential in AFOLU.

  19. Time trends in cigarette smoking in two German cohorts--results from EPIC Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohrmann, S; Kroke, A; Boeing, H; Becker, N

    2003-08-01

    Smoking prevention is less advanced in Germany compared with other European and North American countries, and fewer data exist, especially on the consumption habits at the individual level over time. EPIC Germany, which is part of a European multicentre study on diet and cancer, collected data on individual smoking behaviour and allows for consideration of the changing consumption pattern for both centres and different age groups. Within EPIC 25 546 and 27 548 participants, respectively, were recruited in Heidelberg and Potsdam. Data on smoking habits were collected by means of a computer-guided interview during the baseline examination between 1994 and 1998. For each birth cohort smoking prevalence and mean number of cigarettes smoked per day at different ages were calculated. Additionally, the prevalence of non-filter cigarette smoking was computed. Smoking prevalence in the 1990s was still higher among men (Heidelberg 16.3-32.3%; Potsdam 18.2-29.3%) than among women (Heidelberg 12.8-32.0%; Potsdam 10.4-27.8%). However, the percentage of women smokers was still increasing. Filter cigarettes comprised a growing percentage of the cigarettes smoked, but especially among men differences between both German cohorts can still be seen: depending on age, 10.0-12.7% of men in the Heidelberg cohort smoked non-filter cigarettes, but only 1.1-2.3% in the Potsdam cohort. The quantity smoked was higher in the Heidelberg than in the Potsdam cohort with respect to the mean number of cigarettes smoked per day as well as the pack-years of smoking. In conclusion, smoking habits in the Potsdam and the Heidelberg cohorts did not strongly differ by smoking prevalence. However, they did differ according to the quantity and quality of smoking. These differences, as well as the changes over the last 40 years may contribute to a changing pattern of diseases in different groups of the German population.

  20. K-infinite trends with burnup, enrichment, and cooling time for BWR fuel assemblies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broadhead, B.L.

    1998-08-01

    This report documents the work performed by ORNL for the Yucca Mountain project (YMP) M and O contractor, Framatome Cogema Fuels. The goal of this work was to obtain k inf values for infinite arrays of flooded boiling-water-reactor (BWR) fuel assemblies as a function of various burnup/enrichment and cooling-time combinations. These scenarios simulate expected limiting criticality loading conditions (for a given assembly type) for drift emplacements in a repository. Upon consultation with the YMP staff, a Quad Cities BWR fuel assembly was selected as a baseline assembly. This design consists of seven axial enrichment zones, three of which contain natural uranium oxide. No attempt was made to find a bounding or even typical assembly design due to the wide variety in fuel assembly designs necessary for consideration. The current work concentrates on establishing a baseline analysis, along with a small number of sensitivity studies which can be expected later if desired. As a result of similar studies of this nature, several effects are known to be important in the determination of the final k inf for spent fuel in a cask-like geometry. For a given enrichment there is an optimal burnup: for lower burnups, excess energy (and corresponding excess reactivity) is present in the fuel assembly; for larger burnups, the assembly is overburned and essentially driven by neighboring fuel assemblies. The majority of the burnup/enrichment scenarios included in this study were for some near-optimum burnup/enrichment combinations as determined from Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. Several calculations were performed for under- and over-burned fuel to show these effects

  1. Real-time single-molecule co-immunoprecipitation analyses reveal cancer-specific Ras signalling dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hong-Won; Kyung, Taeyoon; Yoo, Janghyun; Kim, Tackhoon; Chung, Chaeuk; Ryu, Ji Young; Lee, Hanki; Park, Kihyun; Lee, Sangkyu; Jones, Walton D.; Lim, Dae-Sik; Hyeon, Changbong; Do Heo, Won; Yoon, Tae-Young

    2013-01-01

    Co-immunoprecipitation (co-IP) has become a standard technique, but its protein-band output provides only static, qualitative information about protein–protein interactions. Here we demonstrate a real-time single-molecule co-IP technique that generates real-time videos of individual protein–protein interactions as they occur in unpurified cell extracts. By analysing single Ras–Raf interactions with a 50-ms time resolution, we have observed transient intermediates of the protein–protein interaction and determined all the essential kinetic rates. Using this technique, we have quantified the active fraction of native Ras proteins in xenograft tumours, normal tissue and cancer cell lines. We demonstrate that the oncogenic Ras mutations selectively increase the active-Ras fraction by one order of magnitude, without affecting total Ras levels or single-molecule signalling kinetics. Our approach allows us to probe the previously hidden, dynamic aspects of weak protein–protein interactions. It also suggests a path forward towards precision molecular diagnostics at the protein–protein interaction level. PMID:23422673

  2. Mapping and Evaluation of NDVI Trends from Synthetic Time Series Obtained by Blending Landsat and MODIS Data around a Coalfield on the Loess Plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kun Wang

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The increasingly intensive and extensive coal mining activities on the Loess Plateau pose a threat to the fragile local ecosystems. Quantifying the effects of coal mining activities on environmental conditions is of great interest for restoring and managing the local ecosystems and resources. This paper generates dense NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index time series between 2000 and 2011 at a spatial resolution of 30 m by blending Landsat and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data using the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM and further evaluates its capability for mapping vegetation trends around a typical coalfield on the Loss Plateau. Synthetic NDVI images were generated using (1 STARFM-generated NIR (near infrared and red band reflectance data (scheme 1 and (2 Landsat and MODIS NDVI images directly as inputs for STARFM (scheme 2. By comparing the synthetic NDVI images with the corresponding Landsat NDVI, we found that scheme 2 consistently generated better results (0.70 < R2 < 0.76 than scheme 1 (0.56 < R2 < 0.70 in this study area. Trend analysis was then performed with the synthetic dense NDVI time series and the annual maximum NDVI (NDVImax time series. The accuracy of these trends was evaluated by comparing to those from the corresponding MODIS time series, and it was concluded that both the trends from synthetic/MODIS NDVI dense time series and synthetic/MODIS NDVImax time series (2000–2011 were highly consistent. Compared to trends from MODIS time series, trends from synthetic time series are better able to capture fine scale vegetation changes. STARFM-generated synthetic NDVI time series could be used to quantify the effects of mining activities on vegetation, but the test areas should be selected with caution, as the trends derived from synthetic and MODIS time series may be significantly different in some areas.

  3. The main trends of dynamics of incomes of Russians in times of economic crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. L. Petryakova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A research objective which result was this article is the analysis of dynamics of the income of families during the last economic crisis in Russia and influence of change of the standard of living on performance by a family of the main functions, first of all reproductive, zhizneokhranitelny and educational. Now quite steady growth of birth rate, improvement of the indicators characterizing family trouble (refusals of the born children, deprivation of the parental rights, deviant behavior of children and teenagers and health of children and teenagers is observed, however, as a result of decrease in the standard of living, increase in employment of parents, violation of this favorable tendency is possible. The research is based on the analysis of statistical and sociological information, including results of polls of the population, in him the research of ranks of dynamics, graphic and tabular methods is applied. In article sources of the income of the population, first of all – the salary and social payments exerting the greatest impact on the level of the income in general are considered. On the basis of the carried-out analysis the main tendencies characterizing extent of fall of the income of families with children proceeding from this research are formulated, it is possible to speak about increase of needs of families in measures of economic support. However, at the same time becomes the negative moment on the one hand, extremely low knowledge of families of already available measures of such help, and with another – their low assessment and unwillingness to participate in these or those programs offered by the state. In turn it is the factor worsening financial position of families too. High prosperity, material security still (as well as the 90th years, as well as at the beginning of this century are on an equal basis with a family and children the leading value of Russians. It is connected, first of all

  4. Offshore Blowouts, Causes and Trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holand, P

    1996-02-01

    The main objective of this doctoral thesis was to establish an improved design basis for offshore installations with respect to blowout risk analyses. The following sub objectives are defined: (1) Establish an offshore blowout database suitable for risk analyses, (2) Compare the blowout risk related to loss of lives with the total offshore risk and risk in other industries, (3) Analyse blowouts with respect to parameters that are important to describe and quantify blowout risk that has been experienced to be able to answer several questions such as under what operations have blowouts occurred, direct causes, frequency of occurrence etc., (4) Analyse blowouts with respect to trends. The research strategy applied includes elements from both survey strategy and case study strategy. The data are systematized in the form of a new database developed from the MARINTEK database. Most blowouts in the analysed period occurred during drilling operations. Shallow gas blowouts were more frequent than deep blowouts and workover blowouts occurred more often than deep development drilling blowouts. Relatively few blowouts occurred during completion, wireline and normal production activities. No significant trend in blowout occurrences as a function of time could be observed, except for completion blowouts that showed a significantly decreasing trend. But there were trends regarding some important parameters for risk analyses, e.g. the ignition probability has decreased and diverter systems have improved. Only 3.5% of the fatalities occurred because of blowouts. 106 refs., 51 figs., 55 tabs.

  5. Time trends for risk of severe age-related diseases in individuals with and without HIV infection in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Line D; May, Margaret T; Kronborg, Gitte

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Whether the reported high risk of age-related diseases in HIV-infected people is caused by biological ageing or HIV-associated risk factors such as chronic immune activation and low-grade inflammation is unknown. We assessed time trends in age-standardised and relative risks of nine...... serious age-related diseases in a nationwide cohort study of HIV-infected individuals and population controls. METHODS: We identified all HIV-infected individuals in the Danish HIV Cohort Study who had received HIV care in Denmark between Jan 1, 1995, and June 1, 2014. Population controls were identified...... from the Danish Civil Registration System and individually matched in a ratio of nine to one to the HIV-infected individuals for year of birth, sex, and date of study inclusion. Individuals were included in the study if they had a Danish personal identification number, were aged 16 years or older...

  6. Thyroid Cancer Incidence in New Jersey: Time Trend, Birth Cohort and Socioeconomic Status Analysis (1979–2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa M. Roche

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The study's purpose was to investigate thyroid cancer incidence time trends, birth cohort effects, and association with socioeconomic status (SES in New Jersey (NJ, a high incidence state, using NJ State Cancer Registry data. Thyroid cancer incidence rates in each sex, nearly all age groups, two major histologies and all stages significantly increased between 1979 and 2006. For each sex, age-specific incidence rates began greatly increasing in the 1924 birth cohort and, generally, the highest thyroid cancer incidence rate for each five-year age group occurred in the latest birth cohort and diagnosis period. Thyroid cancer incidence rates were significantly higher in NJ Census tracts with higher SES and in counties with a higher percentage of insured residents. These results support further investigation into the relationship between rising thyroid cancer incidence and increasing population exposure to medical (including diagnostic radiation, as well as widespread use of more sensitive diagnostic techniques.

  7. Potentially avoidable hospitalizations in five European countries in 2009 and time trends from 2002 to 2009 based on administrative data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thygesen, Lau C; Christiansen, Terkel; Garcia-Armesto, Sandra

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Potentially avoidable hospitalizations in chronic conditions are used to evaluate health-care performance. However, evidence comparing different countries at small geographical areas is still scarce. The aim of the present study is to describe and discuss differences in rates and time......-trends across health-care areas from five European countries. METHODS: Observational, ecological study, on virtually all discharges produced in five European countries between 2002 and 2009. Potentially avoidable hospitalizations were operationally defined as a joint indicator composed of six chronic conditions....... Episodes flagged as potentially avoidable were allocated to 913 geographical health-care areas. Age-sex standardized rates and standardized hospitalization ratios, as well as several statistics of variation, were estimated. RESULTS: Four hundred sixty-two thousand seven hundred and ninety-two episodes were...

  8. Time trends in socioeconomic inequalities in oral health among 15-year-old Danish adolescents during 1995–2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sengupta, Kaushik; Christensen, Lisa Bøge; Mortensen, Laust Hvas

    Background: Scandinavian welfare states, despite having better population oral health when compared to less egalitarian societies, are characterized by ubiquitous social gradients and large relative socioeconomic inequalities in oral health. However, time trends in these inequalities among...... at Statistics Denmark. SEP measures included previous year’s parental education (highest attained educational level between the parents), income (equivalized household disposable income), and occupational social class (highest recorded occupational class between the parents). Covariates were immigration status......, country of origin, number of children and persons in the family, and household type. The outcome was dental caries experience, determined by the decayed, missing, and filled surfaces (DMFS) index. Negative binomial regression models were used to examine the association between DMFS count and each...

  9. Thyroid Cancer Incidence in New Jersey: Time Trend, Birth Cohort and Socioeconomic Status Analysis (1979-2006)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roche, L.M.; Niu, X.; Pawlish, K.S.; Henry, K.A.

    2011-01-01

    The study's purpose was to investigate thyroid cancer incidence time trends, birth cohort effects, and association with socioeconomic status (SES) in New Jersey (NJ), a high incidence state, using NJ State Cancer Registry data. Thyroid cancer incidence rates in each sex, nearly all age groups, two major histologists and all stages significantly increased between 1979 and 2006. For each sex, age-specific incidence rates began greatly increasing in the 1924 birth cohort and, generally, the highest thyroid cancer incidence rate for each five-year age group occurred in the latest birth cohort and diagnosis period. Thyroid cancer incidence rates were significantly higher in NJ Census tracts with higher SES and in counties with a higher percentage of insured residents. These results support further investigation into the relationship between rising thyroid cancer incidence and increasing population exposure to medical (including diagnostic) radiation, as well as widespread use of more sensitive diagnostic techniques

  10. A Derivation of Source-based Kinetics Equation with Time Dependent Fission Kernel for Reactor Transient Analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Song Hyun; Woo, Myeong Hyun; Shin, Chang Ho; Pyeon, Cheol Ho

    2015-01-01

    In this study, a new balance equation to overcome the problems generated by the previous methods is proposed using source-based balance equation. And then, a simple problem is analyzed with the proposed method. In this study, a source-based balance equation with the time dependent fission kernel was derived to simplify the kinetics equation. To analyze the partial variations of reactor characteristics, two representative methods were introduced in previous studies; (1) quasi-statics method and (2) multipoint technique. The main idea of quasistatics method is to use a low-order approximation for large integration times. To realize the quasi-statics method, first, time dependent flux is separated into the shape and amplitude functions, and shape function is calculated. It is noted that the method has a good accuracy; however, it can be expensive as a calculation cost aspect because the shape function should be fully recalculated to obtain accurate results. To improve the calculation efficiency, multipoint method was proposed. The multipoint method is based on the classic kinetics equation with using Green's function to analyze the flight probability from region r' to r. Those previous methods have been used to analyze the reactor kinetics analysis; however, the previous methods can have some limitations. First, three group variables (r g , E g , t g ) should be considered to solve the time dependent balance equation. This leads a big limitation to apply large system problem with good accuracy. Second, the energy group neutrons should be used to analyze reactor kinetics problems. In time dependent problem, neutron energy distribution can be changed at different time. It can affect the change of the group cross section; therefore, it can lead the accuracy problem. Third, the neutrons in a space-time region continually affect the other space-time regions; however, it is not properly considered in the previous method. Using birth history of the neutron sources

  11. A Derivation of Source-based Kinetics Equation with Time Dependent Fission Kernel for Reactor Transient Analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Song Hyun; Woo, Myeong Hyun; Shin, Chang Ho [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Pyeon, Cheol Ho [Kyoto University, Osaka (Japan)

    2015-10-15

    In this study, a new balance equation to overcome the problems generated by the previous methods is proposed using source-based balance equation. And then, a simple problem is analyzed with the proposed method. In this study, a source-based balance equation with the time dependent fission kernel was derived to simplify the kinetics equation. To analyze the partial variations of reactor characteristics, two representative methods were introduced in previous studies; (1) quasi-statics method and (2) multipoint technique. The main idea of quasistatics method is to use a low-order approximation for large integration times. To realize the quasi-statics method, first, time dependent flux is separated into the shape and amplitude functions, and shape function is calculated. It is noted that the method has a good accuracy; however, it can be expensive as a calculation cost aspect because the shape function should be fully recalculated to obtain accurate results. To improve the calculation efficiency, multipoint method was proposed. The multipoint method is based on the classic kinetics equation with using Green's function to analyze the flight probability from region r' to r. Those previous methods have been used to analyze the reactor kinetics analysis; however, the previous methods can have some limitations. First, three group variables (r{sub g}, E{sub g}, t{sub g}) should be considered to solve the time dependent balance equation. This leads a big limitation to apply large system problem with good accuracy. Second, the energy group neutrons should be used to analyze reactor kinetics problems. In time dependent problem, neutron energy distribution can be changed at different time. It can affect the change of the group cross section; therefore, it can lead the accuracy problem. Third, the neutrons in a space-time region continually affect the other space-time regions; however, it is not properly considered in the previous method. Using birth history of the

  12. Footprint and imprint: an ecologic time-trend analysis of cardiovascular publications in general and specialty journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldridge, Abigail S; Huffman, Mark D; Bloomfield, Gerald S; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

    2014-06-01

    Studies have demonstrated strong associations between publication source and citations, as well as investigatory analysis of collaboration effects, in general and medical literature, but are limited to specific journals or short duration of time. This study sought to analyze time trends in cardiovascular research publications in leading general and specialty journals and to determine the association between collaboration and citation index. Cardiovascular publications were retrieved from Web of Knowledge by a cardiovascular bibliometric filter, and annual publication volumes in 8 general and specialty journals were compared. Univariable linear regression models were used to determine global and journal-specific trends for overall publication, cardiovascular publication, proportion of cardiovascular publication, collaboration, and citations. Cardiovascular publications increased (1999 to 2008) by 36% and number of sources by 74%. Volume increased in European Heart Journal (beta: 18.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.6 to 26.3) and decreased in Circulation (beta: -42.9, 95% CI: -79.3 to -6.5), Annals of Internal Medicine (beta: -1.9, 95% CI: -3.5 to -0.3), and Lancet (beta: -11.2, 95% CI: -14.7 to -7.8). Number of contributing countries increased in 3 journals: BMJ (beta: 0.8, 95% CI: 0.2 to 1.5), European Heart Journal (beta: -1.2, 95% CI: 0.8 to 1.7), and New England Journal of Medicine (beta: 1.6, 95% CI: 0.6 to 2.7). Fraction of collaborative publications increased (beta: 1.1 to 2.9) in all but Annals of Internal Medicine. Collaboration was associated with a higher median actual citation index (p general and specialty journals. Contribution by country in selected journals was disproportionate and under-represents total cardiovascular research in low- and middle-income countries. Copyright © 2014 World Heart Federation (Geneva). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Road Traffic Injury Trends in the City of Valledupar, Colombia. A Time Series Study from 2008 to 2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Martín Rodríguez

    Full Text Available To analyze the behavior temporal of road-traffic injuries (RTI in Valledupar, Colombia from January 2008 to December 2012.An observational study was conducted based on records from the Colombian National Legal Medicine and Forensic Sciences Institute regional office in Valledupar. Different variables were analyzed, such as the injured person's sex, age, education level, and type of road user; the timeframe, place and circumstances of crashes and the vehicles associated with the occurrence. Furthermore, a time series analysis was conducted using an auto-regressive integrated moving average.There were 105 events per month on an average, 64.9% of RTI involved men; 82.3% of the persons injured were from 18 to 59 years of age; the average age was 35.4 years of age; the road users most involved in RTI were motorcyclists (69%, followed by pedestrians (12%. 70% had up to upper-secondary education. Sunday was the day with the most RTI occurrences; 93% of the RTI occurred in the urban area. The time series showed a seasonal pattern and a significant trend effect. The modeling process verified the existence of both memory and extrinsic variables related.An RTI occurrence pattern was identified, which showed an upward trend during the period analyzed. Motorcyclists were the main road users involved in RTI, which suggests the need to design and implement specific measures for that type of road user, from regulations for graduated licensing for young drivers to monitoring road user behavior for the promotion of road safety.

  14. Breakthrough dynamics of s-metolachlor metabolites in drinking water wells: Transport pathways and time to trend reversal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farlin, Julien; Gallé, Tom; Bayerle, Michael; Pittois, Denis; Köppchen, Stephan; Krause, Martina; Hofmann, Diana

    2018-06-01

    We present the results of a two years study on the contamination of the Luxembourg Sandstone aquifer by metolachlor-ESA and metolachlor-OXA, two major transformation products of s-metolachlor. The aim of the study was twofold: (i) assess whether elevated concentrations of both transformation products (up to 1000 ng/l) were due to fast flow breakthough events of short duration or the signs of a contamination of the entire aquifer and (ii) estimate the time to trend reversal once the parent compound was withdrawn from the market. These two questions were addressed by a combined use of groundwater monitoring, laboratory experiments and numerical simulations of the fate of the degradation products in the subsurface. Twelve springs were sampled weekly over an eighteen month period, and the degradation rates of both the parent compound and its transformation products were measured on a representative soil in the laboratory using a radiolabeled precursor. Modelling with the numeric code PEARL simulating pesticide fate in soil coupled to a simple transfer function model for the aquifer compartment, and calibrated from the field and laboratory data, predicts a significant damping by the aquifer of the peaks of concentration of both metolachlor-ESA and -OXA leached from the soil. The time to trend reversal following the ban of s-metolachlor in spring protection zones should be observed before the end of the decade, while the return of contaminant concentrations below the drinking water limit of 100 ng/l however is expected to last up to twelve years. The calculated contribution to total water discharge of the fast-flow component from cropland and short-circuiting the aquifer was small in most springs (median of 1.2%), but sufficient to cause additional peaks of concentration of several hundred nanograms per litre in spring water. These peaks are superimposed on the more steady contamination sustained by the base flow, and should cease immediately once application of the

  15. Time Trends and Predictors of Abnormal Postoperative Body Temperature in Infants Transported to the Intensive Care Unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hedwig Schroeck

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Despite increasing adoption of active warming methods over the recent years, little is known about the effectiveness of these interventions on the occurrence of abnormal postoperative temperatures in sick infants. Methods. Preoperative and postoperative temperature readings, patient characteristics, and procedural factors of critically ill infants at a single institution were retrieved retrospectively from June 2006 until May 2014. The primary endpoints were the incidence and trend of postoperative hypothermia and hyperthermia on arrival at the intensive care units. Univariate and adjusted analyses were performed to identify factors independently associated with abnormal postoperative temperatures. Results. 2,350 cases were included. 82% were normothermic postoperatively, while hypothermia and hyperthermia each occurred in 9% of cases. During the study period, hypothermia decreased from 24% to 2% (p<0.0001 while hyperthermia remained unchanged (13% in 2006, 8% in 2014, p=0.357. Factors independently associated with hypothermia were higher ASA status (p=0.02, lack of intraoperative convective warming (p<0.001 and procedure date before 2010 (p<0.001. Independent associations for postoperative hyperthermia included lower body weight (p=0.01 and procedure date before 2010 (p<0.001. Conclusions. We report an increase in postoperative normothermia rates in critically ill infants from 2006 until 2014. Careful monitoring to avoid overcorrection and hyperthermia is recommended.

  16. Impact of pharmaceutical policy interventions on utilization of antipsychotic medicines in Finland and Portugal in times of economic recession: interrupted time series analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leopold, Christine; Zhang, Fang; Mantel-Teeuwisse, Aukje K; Vogler, Sabine; Valkova, Silvia; Ross-Degnan, Dennis; Wagner, Anita K

    2014-07-25

    To analyze the impacts of pharmaceutical sector policies implemented to contain country spending during the economic recession--a reference price system in Finland and a mix of policies including changes in reimbursement rates, a generic promotion campaign and discounts granted to the public payer in Portugal - on utilization of, as a proxy for access to, antipsychotic medicines. We obtained monthly IMS Health sales data in standard units of antipsychotic medicines in Portugal and Finland for the period January 2007 to December 2011. We used an interrupted time series design to estimate changes in overall use and generic market shares by comparing pre-policy and post-policy levels and trends. Both countries' policy approaches were associated with slight, likely unintended, decreases in overall use of antipsychotic medicines and with increases in generic market shares of major antipsychotic products. In Finland, quetiapine and risperidone generic market shares increased substantially (estimates one year post-policy compared to before, quetiapine: 6.80% [3.92%, 9.68%]; risperidone: 11.13% [6.79%, 15.48%]. The policy interventions in Portugal resulted in a substantially increased generic market share for amisulpride (estimate one year post-policy compared to before: 22.95% [21.01%, 24.90%]; generic risperidone already dominated the market prior to the policy interventions. Different policy approaches to contain pharmaceutical expenditures in times of the economic recession in Finland and Portugal had intended--increased use of generics--and likely unintended--slightly decreased overall sales, possibly consistent with decreased access to needed medicines--impacts. These findings highlight the importance of monitoring and evaluating the effects of pharmaceutical policy interventions on use of medicines and health outcomes.

  17. NEW TRENDS IN MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Micu Alexandra

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Over the last years, management have been facing a series of profound changes in trends coming and going, one being more productive than other or causing more damage when applied improperly. The paper focuses on the last trends in management that have evolved in the last years, trends that have been marked by a Darwinian business environment and made more unforgiving since the financial crisis and the innovations in technology, social media and management philosophy. The paper will present and describe the most important new trends in management that enabled select organisations to remain competitive and overcome the multiple difficulties caused by the ever-changing economy based on a qualitative research. From the “outside innovation” that is considered always to be the key in overcoming the obstacles facing an organization, to the new buzzword “design”, that is said to ensure the organization long-term competitive advantage, the paper will analyse new trends and also will be describing the impact they have on the welfare of the organization. The research has also shown that managers tend to put a greater accent on searching for innovation rather than efficiency in order to ensure a continuous progress in the organization and to maintain business sustainability. The paper will not be comparing the efficiency of these different philosophies, or the results they generated, as time will still be the ultimate judge.

  18. Time trends in Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia, 1988-2010, in a tertiary center with high methicillin resistance rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yahav, Dafna; Shaked, Hila; Goldberg, Elad; Yassin, Sharief; Eliakim-Raz, Noa; Paul, Mical; Bishara, Jihad; Leibovici, Leonard

    2017-02-01

    Changes in the epidemiology of Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB) have been described in recent decades. Decreased mortality has been reported over time, mostly from countries with low methicillin resistance rates. We aimed to describe time trends in SAB in a tertiary center with high methicillin resistance rates. We retrospectively analyzed 1692 patients with SAB, and compared between three time periods: 1988-1994 (342 patients), 1998-2004 (597 patients) and 2005-2010 (753 patients). In our cohort, 30 days mortality increased significantly with time, reaching 42.9 % during 2005-2010. The latter period was characterized by higher rates of older patients (35.1 % aged 80 years and older), with lower functional capacity (46.5 % bedridden) and higher rates of comorbidities (33.6 % renal disease, 24.8 % heart failure, 19.0 % dementia). These patients were more likely to be ventilated (18.7 %) and carry a urinary catheter at presentation (46.6 %); present with septic shock (15.9 %) and have pneumonia (20.5 %) or endocarditis (7.2 %) as source. Similar characteristics were found among patients younger than 50 years and with independent functional status. No significant increase in methicillin resistant Staph aureus (MRSA) rates or inappropriate empirical therapy was demonstrated during 2005-2010. In our cohort, increased mortality in recent years in patients with SAB can be explained by baseline condition of patients. MRSA or inappropriate empiric therapy did not explain the increase in mortality. The patients afflicted with SAB changed over time. Epidemiology and outcomes of SAB vary with time and according to geographical location. External validity of studies should be taken into consideration.

  19. Time trends in leisure time physical activity and physical fitness in elderly people: 20 year follow-up of the Spanish population national health survey (1987-2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carrasco-Garrido Pilar

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To estimate trends in leisure time physical activity and physical fitness between 1987-2006 in older Spanish people. Methods We analyzed data collected from the Spanish National Health Surveys conducted in 1987 (n = 29,647, 1993 (n = 20,707, 1995-1997 (n = 12,800, 2001 (n = 21,058, 2003 (n = 21,650, and 2006 (n = 29,478. The number of subjects aged ≥ 65 years included in the current study was 29,263 (1987: n = 4,958-16.7%; 1993: n = 3,751-17.8%; 1995-97: n = 2,229-17.4%; 2001: n = 4,356-20.7%; 2003: 6,134-28.3%; 2006: 7,835-26.5%. Main variables included leisure-time physical activity and physical fitness. We analyzed socio-demographic characteristics, self-rated health status, lifestyle habit and co-morbid conditions using multivariate logistic regression models. Results Women exhibited lower prevalence of leisure time physical activity and physical fitness compared to men (P Conclusions We found an increase in leisure time physical activity in the older Spanish population. Older age, married status, co-morbid conditions, obesity, and worse self-perceived health status were associated with lower activity. Identification of these factors can help to identify individuals at risk for physical inactivity.

  20. Moment-to-moment changes in feeling moved match changes in closeness, tears, goosebumps, and warmth: time series analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Thomas W; Zickfeld, Janis H; Seibt, Beate; Fiske, Alan Page

    2018-02-01

    Feeling moved or touched can be accompanied by tears, goosebumps, and sensations of warmth in the centre of the chest. The experience has been described frequently, but psychological science knows little about it. We propose that labelling one's feeling as being moved or touched is a component of a social-relational emotion that we term kama muta (its Sanskrit label). We hypothesise that it is caused by appraising an intensification of communal sharing relations. Here, we test this by investigating people's moment-to-moment reports of feeling moved and touched while watching six short videos. We compare these to six other sets of participants' moment-to-moment responses watching the same videos: respectively, judgements of closeness (indexing communal sharing), reports of weeping, goosebumps, warmth in the centre of the chest, happiness, and sadness. Our eighth time series is expert ratings of communal sharing. Time series analyses show strong and consistent cross-correlations of feeling moved and touched and closeness with each other and with each of the three physiological variables and expert-rated communal sharing - but distinctiveness from happiness and sadness. These results support our model.

  1. Time-frequency analyses of fluid-solid interaction under sinusoidal translational shear deformation of the viscoelastic rat cerebrum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leahy, Lauren N.; Haslach, Henry W.

    2018-02-01

    During normal extracellular fluid (ECF) flow in the brain glymphatic system or during pathological flow induced by trauma resulting from impacts and blast waves, ECF-solid matter interactions result from sinusoidal shear waves in the brain and cranial arterial tissue, both heterogeneous biological tissues with high fluid content. The flow in the glymphatic system is known to be forced by pulsations of the cranial arteries at about 1 Hz. The experimental shear stress response to sinusoidal translational shear deformation at 1 Hz and 25% strain amplitude and either 0% or 33% compression is compared for rat cerebrum and bovine aortic tissue. Time-frequency analyses aim to correlate the shear stress signal frequency components over time with the behavior of brain tissue constituents to identify the physical source of the shear nonlinear viscoelastic response. Discrete fast Fourier transformation analysis and the novel application to the shear stress signal of harmonic wavelet decomposition both show significant 1 Hz and 3 Hz components. The 3 Hz component in brain tissue, whose magnitude is much larger than in aortic tissue, may result from interstitial fluid induced drag forces. The harmonic wavelet decomposition locates 3 Hz harmonics whose magnitudes decrease on subsequent cycles perhaps because of bond breaking that results in easier fluid movement. Both tissues exhibit transient shear stress softening similar to the Mullins effect in rubber. The form of a new mathematical model for the drag force produced by ECF-solid matter interactions captures the third harmonic seen experimentally.

  2. A review on design of experiments and surrogate models in aircraft real-time and many-query aerodynamic analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yondo, Raul; Andrés, Esther; Valero, Eusebio

    2018-01-01

    Full scale aerodynamic wind tunnel testing, numerical simulation of high dimensional (full-order) aerodynamic models or flight testing are some of the fundamental but complex steps in the various design phases of recent civil transport aircrafts. Current aircraft aerodynamic designs have increase in complexity (multidisciplinary, multi-objective or multi-fidelity) and need to address the challenges posed by the nonlinearity of the objective functions and constraints, uncertainty quantification in aerodynamic problems or the restrained computational budgets. With the aim to reduce the computational burden and generate low-cost but accurate models that mimic those full order models at different values of the design variables, Recent progresses have witnessed the introduction, in real-time and many-query analyses, of surrogate-based approaches as rapid and cheaper to simulate models. In this paper, a comprehensive and state-of-the art survey on common surrogate modeling techniques and surrogate-based optimization methods is given, with an emphasis on models selection and validation, dimensionality reduction, sensitivity analyses, constraints handling or infill and stopping criteria. Benefits, drawbacks and comparative discussions in applying those methods are described. Furthermore, the paper familiarizes the readers with surrogate models that have been successfully applied to the general field of fluid dynamics, but not yet in the aerospace industry. Additionally, the review revisits the most popular sampling strategies used in conducting physical and simulation-based experiments in aircraft aerodynamic design. Attractive or smart designs infrequently used in the field and discussions on advanced sampling methodologies are presented, to give a glance on the various efficient possibilities to a priori sample the parameter space. Closing remarks foster on future perspectives, challenges and shortcomings associated with the use of surrogate models by aircraft industrial

  3. Time trends in the association of ESRD incidence with area-level poverty in the US population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrity, Bridget H; Kramer, Holly; Vellanki, Kavitha; Leehey, David; Brown, Julia; Shoham, David A

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the temporal trends of the association between area-level poverty status and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) incidence. We hypothesized that the association between area-level poverty status and ESRD incidence has increased significantly over time. Patient data from the United States Renal Data System were linked with data from the 2000 and 2010 US census. Area-level poverty was defined as living in a zip code-defined area with ≥20% of households living below the federal poverty line. Negative binomial regression models were created to examine the association between area-level poverty status and ESRD incidence by time period in the US adult population while simultaneously adjusting for the distribution of age, sex, and race/ethnicity within a zip code. Time was categorized as January 1, 1995 through December 31, 2004 (Period 1) and January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2010 (Period 2). The percentage of adults initiating dialysis with area-level poverty increased from 27.4% during Period 1 to 34.0% in Period 2. After accounting for the distribution of age, sex, and race/ethnicity within a zip code, area-level poverty status was associated with a 1.24 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22, 1.25)-fold higher ESRD incidence. However, this association differed by time period with 1.04-fold (95% CI 1.02, 1.05) higher ESRD incidence associated with poverty status for Period 2 compared with the association between ESRD and poverty status in Period 1. Area-level poverty and its association with ESRD incidence is not static over time. © 2015 International Society for Hemodialysis.

  4. Time trends in disability pensioning for rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis and soft tissue rheumatism in Norway 1968-97.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holte, Hilde H; Tambs, Kristian; Bjerkedal, Tor

    2003-01-01

    Disability pensioning with musculoskeletal diagnoses increased more than general disability pensioning in Norway during 1968-97. Incidences of disability pensioning for three main musculoskeletal diseases - rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis and soft tissue rheumatism - during the period 1968-97 were assessed. Changes in incidence were related to changes in Norwegian society with respect to prevalence of these diseases, the number of individuals having high probability of disability pensioning for these diseases, the labour market and legal amendments that may have changed the probability of being granted a disability pension among these patients. Data on all new disability pensioners aged 50-66 years registered by the National Insurance Administration during 1968-97 and the total population of Norway excluding disability pensioners were used to calculate annual incidence rates of disability pension for the selected musculoskeletal diagnoses. The incidence of disability pension for soft tissue rheumatism and osteoarthritis increased during the study period, and both increased more than the incidence of disability pension in general. The incidence of disability pension for rheumatoid arthritis decreased when compared with disability pensioning in general. The year an upward or downward trend started is similar for osteoarthritis and soft tissue rheumatism for men and women in the age groups studied. Changes in prevalence of a disease seem to be an important factor in explaining differences in time trends of disability pensioning with different diagnoses. Changes in unemployment, female employment, number of manual workers or the legal system do not appear to be related to the increases in incidence of disability pensioning with musculoskeletal diseases.

  5. Levels, fluxes and time trends of persistent organic pollutants in Lake Thun, Switzerland: Combining trace analysis and multimedia modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogdal, Christian; Scheringer, Martin; Schmid, Peter; Blaeuenstein, Markus; Kohler, Martin; Hungerbuehler, Konrad

    2010-01-01

    Levels, mass fluxes, and time trends of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Lake Thun, a peri-Alpine lake, are investigated. We present measurements of PBDEs and PCBs in air, lake water, lake sediment, and tributary water. These measurements are combined with a multimedia fate model, based on site-specific environmental parameters from the lake catchment. Measured loadings of PBDEs and PCBs in air and tributaries were used to drive the model. The model satisfactorily reproduces PBDE and PCB congener patterns in water and sediment, but it tends to yield concentrations in water below the measurements and concentrations in sediment exceeding the measurements. A sensitivity analysis reveals that partitioning of PBDEs and PCBs between the aqueous dissolved phase and suspended particulate matter in the water column strongly affects the model results, in particular the concentrations in water and sediment. For lower-brominated PBDEs, approximately 70% and 30% of input into the lake stems from atmospheric deposition and from tributaries, respectively. For heavier PBDEs and all PCBs, rivers appear to deliver the major load (64-92%). Waste water effluents are of minor importance. 50-90% of the total input is buried in the permanent sediment. Sediment burial makes PBDEs and PCBs less available for recycling in the environment, and reduces concentrations in the outflowing river. If use of deca-BDE increases in the future, levels in Lake Thun will follow the same trend. If the use and resulting environmental emissions decrease, concentrations in water will rapidly decline, according to our calculations, while sediment levels will decrease at a considerably slower rate.

  6. A comparative study of two approaches to analyse groundwater recharge, travel times and nitrate storage distribution at a regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turkeltaub, T.; Ascott, M.; Gooddy, D.; Jia, X.; Shao, M.; Binley, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding deep percolation, travel time processes and nitrate storage in the unsaturated zone at a regional scale is crucial for sustainable management of many groundwater systems. Recently, global hydrological models have been developed to quantify the water balance at such scales and beyond. However, the coarse spatial resolution of the global hydrological models can be a limiting factor when analysing regional processes. This study compares simulations of water flow and nitrate storage based on regional and global scale approaches. The first approach was applied over the Loess Plateau of China (LPC) to investigate the water fluxes and nitrate storage and travel time to the LPC groundwater system. Using raster maps of climate variables, land use data and soil parameters enabled us to determine fluxes by employing Richards' equation and the advection - dispersion equation. These calculations were conducted for each cell on the raster map in a multiple 1-D column approach. In the second approach, vadose zone travel times and nitrate storage were estimated by coupling groundwater recharge (PCR-GLOBWB) and nitrate leaching (IMAGE) models with estimates of water table depth and unsaturated zone porosity. The simulation results of the two methods indicate similar spatial groundwater recharge, nitrate storage and travel time distribution. Intensive recharge rates are located mainly at the south central and south west parts of the aquifer's outcrops. Particularly low recharge rates were simulated in the top central area of the outcrops. However, there are significant discrepancies between the simulated absolute recharge values, which might be related to the coarse scale that is used in the PCR-GLOBWB model, leading to smoothing of the recharge estimations. Both models indicated large nitrate inventories in the south central and south west parts of the aquifer's outcrops and the shortest travel times in the vadose zone are in the south central and east parts of the

  7. Socio-economic status and time trends associated with early ART initiation following primary HIV infection in Montreal, Canada: 1996 to 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehraj, Vikram; Cox, Joseph; Lebouché, Bertrand; Costiniuk, Cecilia; Cao, Wei; Li, Taisheng; Ponte, Rosalie; Thomas, Réjean; Szabo, Jason; Baril, Jean-Guy; Trottier, Benoit; Côté, Pierre; LeBlanc, Roger; Bruneau, Julie; Tremblay, Cécile; Routy, Jean-Pierre

    2018-02-01

    Guidelines regarding antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in HIV infection have varied over time, with the 2015 World Health Organization recommendation suggesting ART initiation at the time of diagnosis regardless of CD4 T-cell counts. Herein, we investigated the influence of socio-demographic and clinical factors in addition to time trends on early ART initiation among participants of the Montreal Primary HIV Infection Study. The Montreal Primary HIV Infection Study is a prospective cohort established in three community medical centres (CMCs) and two university medical centres (UMCs). Recently diagnosed HIV-infected adults were categorized as receiving early (vs. delayed) ART if ART was initiated within 180 days of the baseline visit. Associations between early ART initiation and socio-demographic, socio-economic and behavioural information were examined. Independent associations of factors linked with early ART initiation were determined using multivariable binary logistic regression analysis. A total of 348 participants had a documented date of HIV acquisition of age of participants was 35 (28; 42) years and the majority were male (96%), having paid employment (63%), men who have sex with men (MSM) (78%) and one to four sexual partners in the last three months (70%). Participants presented with a median IQR HIV plasma viral load of 4.6 (3.7; 5.3) log 10 copies/ml, CD4 count of 510 (387; 660) cells/μl and were recruited in CMCs (52%) or UMCs (48%). Early ART initiation was observed in 47% of the participants and the trend followed a V-shaped curve with peaks in 1996 to 1997 (89%) and 2013 to 2015 (88%) with a dip in 2007 to 2009 (22%). Multivariable analyses showed that having a paid employment adjusted odds ratio (aOR: 2.43; 95% CI: 1.19, 4.95), lower CD4 count (aOR per 50 cell increase: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.87, 0.99) and care at UMCs (aOR: 2.03; 95% CI: 1.06 to 3.90) were independently associated with early ART initiation. Early ART initiation during primary

  8. The air-sea equilibrium and time trend of hexachlorocyclohexanes in the Atlantic Ocean between the Arctic and Antarctica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakaschus, Sonke; Weber, Kurt; Wania, Frank; Bruhn, Regina; Schrems, Otto

    2002-01-15

    Hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) were determined simultaneously in air and seawater during two cruises across the Atlantic Ocean between the Arctic Ocean (Ny-Alesund/ Svalbard, 79 degrees N; 12 degrees E) and the Antarctic Continent (Neumayer Station/ Ekstroem Ice Shelf, 70 degrees S; 8.2 degrees W) in 1999/ 2000. The concentrations of alpha-HCH and gamma-HCH in air and surface waters of the Arctic exceeded those in Antarctica by 1-2 orders of magnitude. The gaseous concentrations of gamma-HCH were highest above the North Sea and between 20 degrees N and 30 degrees S. Fugacity fractions were used to estimate the direction of the air-sea gas exchange. These showed for alpha-HCH thatthe measured concentrations in both phases were close to equilibrium in the North Atlantic (78 degrees N-40 degrees N), slightly undersaturated between 30 degrees N and 10 degrees S and again close to equilibrium between 20 degrees S and 50 degrees S. Y-HCH has reached phase equilibrium in the North Atlantic as alpha-HCH, but the surface waters of the tropical and southern Atlantic were strongly undersaturated with y-HCH, especially between 30 degrees N and 20 degrees S. These findings are significantly different from two earlier estimates around 1990 as a result of global emission changes within the past decade. Therefore, we investigated the time trend of the HCHs in the surface waters of the Atlantic between 50 degrees N and 60 degrees S on the basis of archived samples taken in 1987-1997 and those from 1999. A decrease of alpha-HCH by a factor of approximately 4 is observed at all sampling locations. No decrease of gamma-HCH occurred between 30 degrees N and 30 degrees S, but there was a decrease in the North Atlantic, North Sea, and in the South Atlantic south of 40 degrees S. The constant level of gamma-HCH in the tropical Atlantic confirms the conclusion that the tropical Atlantic acts as a sink for y-HCH at present time. The measured alpha-HCH seawater concentrations were compared

  9. Trends in the nutritional content of television food advertisements seen by children in the United States: analyses by age, food categories, and companies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Lisa M; Schermbeck, Rebecca M; Szczypka, Glen; Chaloupka, Frank J; Braunschweig, Carol L

    2011-12-01

    To examine trends in children's exposure to food-related advertising on television by age, product category, and company. Nutritional content analysis using television ratings data for 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2009 for children. Annual age-specific television ratings data captured children's exposure to broadcast network, cable network, syndicated, and spot television food advertising from all (except Spanish-language) programming. Children aged 2 to 5 and 6 to 11 years. Main Exposure  Television ratings. Children's exposure to food-related advertising on television with nutritional assessments for food and beverage products for grams of saturated fat, sugar, and fiber and milligrams of sodium. Children aged 2 to 5 and 6 to 11 years saw, respectively, on average, 10.9 and 12.7 food-related television advertisements daily in 2009, down 17.8% and 6.9% from 2003. Exposure to food and beverage products high in saturated fat, sugar, or sodium fell 37.9% and 27.7% but fast-food advertising exposure increased by 21.1% and 30.8% among 2- to 5- and 6- to 11-year-olds, respectively, between 2003 and 2009. In 2009, 86% of ads seen by children were for products high in saturated fat, sugar, or sodium, down from 94% in 2003. Exposure to unhealthy food and beverage product advertisements has fallen, whereas exposure to fast-food ads increased from 2003 to 2009. By 2009, there was not a substantial improvement in the nutritional content of food and beverage advertisements that continued to be advertised and viewed on television by US children.

  10. Trends in the Nutritional Content of TV Food Advertisements Seen by Children in the US: Analyses by Age, Food Categories and Companies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Lisa M.; Schermbeck, Rebecca M.; Szczypka, Glen; Chaloupka, Frank J.; Braunschweig, Carol L.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To examine trends in children's exposure to food-related advertising on television by age, product category and company. Design Nutritional content analysis using television ratings data for the years 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2009 for children. Setting Annual age-specific television ratings data captured children's exposure to broadcast network, cable network, syndicated and spot television food advertising from all (except Spanish language) programming. Participants Children ages 2–5 and 6–11. Main Exposure Television ratings. Main Outcome Measures Children's exposure to food-related advertising on television with nutritional assessments for food and beverage products for grams of saturated fat, sugar and fiber, and milligrams of sodium. Results Children ages 2–5 and 6–11, respectively, saw, on average, 10.9 and 12.7 food-related television advertisements daily, in 2009, down 17.8% and 6.9% from 2003. Exposure to food and beverage products high in saturated fat, sugar or sodium (SAFSUSO) fell 37.9% and 27.7% but fast food advertising exposure increased by 21.1% and 30.8% among 2–5 and 6–11 year olds, respectively, between 2003 and 2009. In 2009, 86% of ads seen by children were for products high in SAFSUSO, down from 94% in 2003. Conclusions Exposure to unhealthy food and beverage product advertisements has fallen, whereas exposure to fast food ads increased from 2003 to 2009. By 2009, there was not a substantial improvement in the nutritional content of food and beverage advertisements that continued to be advertised and viewed on television by U.S. children. PMID:21810626

  11. Increasing Short-Stay Unplanned Hospital Admissions among Children in England; Time Trends Analysis ’97–‘06

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, Sonia; Bottle, Alex; Gilbert, Ruth; Sharland, Mike

    2009-01-01

    Background Timely care by general practitioners in the community keeps children out of hospital and provides better continuity of care. Yet in the UK, access to primary care has diminished since 2004 when changes in general practitioners' contracts enabled them to ‘opt out’ of providing out-of-hours care and since then unplanned pediatric hospital admission rates have escalated, particularly through emergency departments. We hypothesised that any increase in isolated short stay admissions for childhood illness might reflect failure to manage these cases in the community over a 10 year period spanning these changes. Methods and Findings We conducted a population based time trends study of major causes of hospital admission in children 2 days. By 2006, 67.3% of all unplanned admissions were isolated short stays <2 days. The increases in admission rates were greater for common non-infectious than infectious causes of admissions. Conclusions Short stay unplanned hospital admission rates in young children in England have increased substantially in recent years and are not accounted for by reductions in length of in-hospital stay. The majority are isolated short stay admissions for minor illness episodes that could be better managed by primary care in the community and may be evidence of a failure of primary care services. PMID:19829695

  12. Time Clustered Sampling Can Inflate the Inferred Substitution Rate in Foot-And-Mouth Disease Virus Analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Casper-Emil T; Frandsen, Peter; Wekesa, Sabenzia N; Heller, Rasmus; Sangula, Abraham K; Wadsworth, Jemma; Knowles, Nick J; Muwanika, Vincent B; Siegismund, Hans R

    2015-01-01

    With the emergence of analytical software for the inference of viral evolution, a number of studies have focused on estimating important parameters such as the substitution rate and the time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) for rapidly evolving viruses. Coupled with an increasing abundance of sequence data sampled under widely different schemes, an effort to keep results consistent and comparable is needed. This study emphasizes commonly disregarded problems in the inference of evolutionary rates in viral sequence data when sampling is unevenly distributed on a temporal scale through a study of the foot-and-mouth (FMD) disease virus serotypes SAT 1 and SAT 2. Our study shows that clustered temporal sampling in phylogenetic analyses of FMD viruses will strongly bias the inferences of substitution rates and tMRCA because the inferred rates in such data sets reflect a rate closer to the mutation rate rather than the substitution rate. Estimating evolutionary parameters from viral sequences should be performed with due consideration of the differences in short-term and longer-term evolutionary processes occurring within sets of temporally sampled viruses, and studies should carefully consider how samples are combined.

  13. 8-year trends in physical activity, nutrition, TV viewing time, smoking, alcohol and BMI: A comparison of younger and older Queensland adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Mitch J.; Schoeppe, Stephanie; Rebar, Amanda L.; Vandelanotte, Corneel

    2017-01-01

    Lifestyle behaviours significantly contribute to high levels of chronic disease in older adults. The aims of the study were to compare the prevalence and the prevalence trends of health behaviours (physical activity, fruit and vegetable consumption, fast food consumption, TV viewing, smoking and alcohol consumption), BMI and a summary health behaviour indicator score in older (65+ years) versus younger adults (18–65 years). The self-report outcomes were assessed through the Queensland Social Survey annually between 2007–2014 (n = 12,552). Regression analyses were conducted to compare the proportion of older versus younger adults engaging in health behaviours and of healthy weight in all years combined and examine trends in the proportion of younger and older adults engaging in health behaviours and of healthy weight over time. Older adults were more likely to meet recommended intakes of fruit and vegetable (OR = 1.43, 95%CI = 1.23–1.67), not consume fast food (OR = 2.54, 95%CI = 2.25–2.86) and be non-smokers (OR = 3.02, 95%CI = 2.53–3.60) in comparison to younger adults. Conversely, older adults were less likely to meet the physical activity recommendations (OR = 0.86, 95%CI = 0.78–0.95) and watch less than 14 hours of TV per week (OR = 0.65, 95%CI = 0.58–0.74). Overall, older adults were more likely to report engaging in 3, or at least 4 out of 5 healthy behaviours. The proportion of both older and younger adults meeting the physical activity recommendations (OR = 0.97, 95%CI = 0.95–0.98 and OR = 0.94, 95%CI = 0.91–0.97 respectively), watching less than 14 hours of TV per week (OR = 0.96, 95%CI = 0.94–0.99 and OR = 0.94, 95%CI = 0.90–0.99 respectively) and who were a healthy weight (OR = 0.95, 95%CI = 0.92–0.99 and OR = 0.96, 95%CI = 0.94–0.98 respectively) decreased over time. The proportion of older adults meeting the fruit and vegetable recommendations (OR = 0.90, 95%CI = 0.84–0.96) and not consuming fast food (OR = 0.94, 95%CI = 0

  14. Time trends in the incidence of hysterectomy-corrected overall, type 1 and type 2 endometrial cancer in Denmark 1978-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faber, Mette Tuxen; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Jensen, Allan; Aarslev, Peter Bo; Kjaer, Susanne K

    2017-08-01

    To investigate time trends in the incidence of overall, type 1 and type 2 endometrial cancer in Denmark 1978-2014, correcting for hysterectomy. Based on the Danish Cancer Registry and the Danish National Patient Registry we calculated hysterectomy-corrected incidence rates of overall, type 1 and type 2 endometrial cancer. Separate analyses for women incidence with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The overall incidence of endometrial cancer decreased slightly from 1978 to 1995, but in the last two decades of the study period the incidence has been stable (APC=0.16; 95% CI: -0.19; 0.50). In the study period (1978-2014) type 1 endometrial cancer incidence decreased slightly (APC=-0.67; 95% CI:-0.83; -0.52), whereas the incidence of type 2 endometrial cancer increased substantially (APC=4.85; 95% CI: 4.47; 5.23). The decrease in type 1 endometrial cancer was most pronounced before 1996 in women younger than 55 years (APC=-2.79; 95% CI: -3.65; -1.91), while the largest increase in type 2 endometrial cancer was observed after 1996 (APC=6.42; 95% CI: 5.72; 7.12). Over a period of more than 35 years, the incidence of type 1 endometrial cancer decreased, mainly in pre- and perimenopausal women, while type 2 endometrial cancer incidence increased. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Food Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenk, Nancy E.

    1991-01-01

    An overall perspective on trends in food consumption is presented. Nutrition awareness is at an all-time high; consumption is influenced by changes in disposable income, availability of convenience foods, smaller household size, and an increasing proportion of ethnic minorities in the population. (18 references) (LB)

  16. Timing of maternal death: Levels, trends, and ecological correlates using sibling data from 34 sub-Saharan African countries.

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    Leena Merdad

    Full Text Available Millennium Development Goal 5 has not been universally achieved, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding whether maternal deaths occur during pregnancy, childbirth, or puerperium is important to effectively plan maternal health programs and allocate resources. Our main research objectives are to (1 describe the proportions and rates of mortality for the antepartum, intrapartum, and postpartum periods; (2 document how these trends vary by sub-region; and (3 investigate ecological correlations between these rates and maternal care interventions. We used data from the Demographic and Health Survey program, which comprises 84 surveys from 34 sub-Saharan African countries conducted between 1990 and 2014. We calculated age-standardized maternal mortality rates and time-specific maternal mortality rates and proportions, and we assessed correlations with maternal care coverage. We found high levels of maternal mortality in all three periods. Time-specific maternal mortality rates varied by country and region, with some showing an orderly decline in all three periods and others exhibiting alarming increases in antepartum and postpartum mortality. Ecological analysis showed that antenatal care coverage was significantly associated with low antepartum mortality, whereas the presence of a skilled attendant at childbirth was significantly associated with low postpartum mortality. In sub-Saharan Africa, maternal deaths occur at high rates in all three risk periods, and vary substantially by country and region. The provision of maternal care is a predictor of time-specific maternal mortality. These results confirm the need for country-specific interventions during the continuum of care to achieve the global commitment to eliminating preventable maternal mortality.

  17. Time Trends over 16 Years in Incidence-Rates of Autism Spectrum Disorders across the Lifespan Based on Nationwide Danish Register Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Christina Mohr; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Lauritsen, Marlene Briciet

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated time trends and associated factors of incidence rates of diagnosed autism spectrum disorders (ASD) across the lifespan from 1995 to 2010, using data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry. First time diagnosis of childhood autism, atypical autism, Asperger's syndrome, or pervasive developmental…

  18. Decreasing trends in hospitalizations during anti-TNF therapy are associated with time to anti-TNF therapy: Results from two referral centres.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandel, Michael D; Balint, Anita; Golovics, Petra A; Vegh, Zsuzsanna; Mohas, Anna; Szilagyi, Blanka; Szabo, Agnes; Kurti, Zsuzsanna; Kiss, Lajos S; Lovasz, Barbara D; Gecse, Krisztina B; Farkas, Klaudia; Molnar, Tamas; Lakatos, Peter L

    2014-11-01

    Hospitalization is an important outcome measure and a major driver of costs in patients with inflammatory bowel disease. We analysed medical and surgical hospitalization rates and predictors of hospitalization before and during anti-TNF therapy. Data from 194 consecutive patients were analysed retrospectively (males, 45.4%, median age at diagnosis, 24.0 years, infliximab/adalimumab: 144/50) in whom anti-TNF therapy was started after January 1, 2008. Total follow-up was 1874 patient-years and 474 patient-years with anti-TNF exposure. Hospitalization rates hospitalization decreased only in Crohn's disease (odds ratio: 0.59, 95% confidence interval: 0.51-0.70, median 2-years' anti-TNF exposure) with a same trend for surgical interventions (p=0.07), but not in ulcerative colitis. Need for hospitalization decreased in Crohn's disease with early (within 3-years from diagnosis, p=0.016 by McNemar test), but not late anti-TNF exposure. At logistic regression analysis complicated disease behaviour (p=0.03), concomitant azathioprine (p=0.02) use, but not anti-TNF type, gender, perianal disease or previous surgeries were associated with the risk of hospitalization during anti-TNF therapy. Hospitalization rate decreased significantly in patients with Crohn's disease but not ulcerative colitis after the introduction of anti-TNF therapy and was associated with time to therapy. Complicated disease phenotype and concomitant azathioprine use were additional factors defining the risk of hospitalization. Copyright © 2014 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Regional changes in charcoal-burning suicide rates in East/Southeast Asia from 1995 to 2011: a time trend analysis.

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    Shu-Sen Chang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Suicides by carbon monoxide poisoning resulting from burning barbecue charcoal reached epidemic levels in Hong Kong and Taiwan within 5 y of the first reported cases in the early 2000s. The objectives of this analysis were to investigate (i time trends and regional patterns of charcoal-burning suicide throughout East/Southeast Asia during the time period 1995-2011 and (ii whether any rises in use of this method were associated with increases in overall suicide rates. Sex- and age-specific trends over time were also examined to identify the demographic groups showing the greatest increases in charcoal-burning suicide rates across different countries.We used data on suicides by gases other than domestic gas for Hong Kong, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore in the years 1995/1996-2011. Similar data for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand were also extracted but were incomplete. Graphical and joinpoint regression analyses were used to examine time trends in suicide, and negative binomial regression analysis to study sex- and age-specific patterns. In 1995/1996, charcoal-burning suicides accounted for <1% of all suicides in all study countries, except in Japan (5%, but they increased to account for 13%, 24%, 10%, 7%, and 5% of all suicides in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore, respectively, in 2011. Rises were first seen in Hong Kong after 1998 (95% CI 1997-1999, followed by Singapore in 1999 (95% CI 1998-2001, Taiwan in 2000 (95% CI 1999-2001, Japan in 2002 (95% CI 1999-2003, and the Republic of Korea in 2007 (95% CI 2006-2008. No marked increases were seen in Malaysia, the Philippines, or Thailand. There was some evidence that charcoal-burning suicides were associated with an increase in overall suicide rates in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Japan (for females, but not in Japan (for males, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore. Rates of change in charcoal-burning suicide rate did not differ by sex/age group

  20. Regional changes in charcoal-burning suicide rates in East/Southeast Asia from 1995 to 2011: a time trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Shu-Sen; Chen, Ying-Yeh; Yip, Paul S F; Lee, Won Jin; Hagihara, Akihito; Gunnell, David

    2014-04-01

    Suicides by carbon monoxide poisoning resulting from burning barbecue charcoal reached epidemic levels in Hong Kong and Taiwan within 5 y of the first reported cases in the early 2000s. The objectives of this analysis were to investigate (i) time trends and regional patterns of charcoal-burning suicide throughout East/Southeast Asia during the time period 1995-2011 and (ii) whether any rises in use of this method were associated with increases in overall suicide rates. Sex- and age-specific trends over time were also examined to identify the demographic groups showing the greatest increases in charcoal-burning suicide rates across different countries. We used data on suicides by gases other than domestic gas for Hong Kong, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore in the years 1995/1996-2011. Similar data for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand were also extracted but were incomplete. Graphical and joinpoint regression analyses were used to examine time trends in suicide, and negative binomial regression analysis to study sex- and age-specific patterns. In 1995/1996, charcoal-burning suicides accounted for <1% of all suicides in all study countries, except in Japan (5%), but they increased to account for 13%, 24%, 10%, 7%, and 5% of all suicides in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore, respectively, in 2011. Rises were first seen in Hong Kong after 1998 (95% CI 1997-1999), followed by Singapore in 1999 (95% CI 1998-2001), Taiwan in 2000 (95% CI 1999-2001), Japan in 2002 (95% CI 1999-2003), and the Republic of Korea in 2007 (95% CI 2006-2008). No marked increases were seen in Malaysia, the Philippines, or Thailand. There was some evidence that charcoal-burning suicides were associated with an increase in overall suicide rates in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Japan (for females), but not in Japan (for males), the Republic of Korea, and Singapore. Rates of change in charcoal-burning suicide rate did not differ by sex/age group in

  1. Modeling trends of health and health related indicators in Ethiopia (1995-2008: a time-series study

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    Nigatu Tilahun H

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Federal Ministry of Health of Ethiopia has been publishing Health and Health related indicators of the country annually since 1987 E.C. These indicators have been of high importance in indicating the status of health in the country in those years. However, the trends/patterns of these indicators and the factors related to the trends have not yet been investigated in a systematic manner. In addition, there were minimal efforts to develop a model for predicting future values of Health and Health related indicators based on the current trend. Objectives The overall aim of this study was to analyze trends of and develop model for prediction of Health and Health related indicators. More specifically, it described the trends of Health and Health related indicators, identified determinants of mortality and morbidity indicators and developed model for predicting future values of MDG indicators. Methods This study was conducted on Health and Health related indicators of Ethiopia from the year 1987 E.C to 2000 E.C. Key indicators of Mortality and Morbidity, Health service coverage, Health systems resources, Demographic and socio-economic, and Risk factor indicators were extracted and analyzed. The trends in these indicators were established using trend analysis techniques. The determinants of the established trends were identified using ARIMA models in STATA. The trend-line equations were then used to predict future values of the indicators. Results Among the mortality indicators considered in this study, it was only Maternal Mortality Ratio that showed statistically significant decrement within the study period. The trends of Total Fertility Rate, physician per 100,000 population, skilled birth attendance and postnatal care coverage were found to have significant association with Maternal Mortality Ratio trend. There was a reversal of malaria parasite prevalence in 1999 E.C from Plasmodium Falciparum to Plasmodium Vivax. Based on

  2. Mortality related to tuberculosis-HIV/AIDS co-infection in Brazil, 2000-2011: epidemiological patterns and time trends

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    Mauricélia da Silveira Lima

    Full Text Available Abstract: Co-infection of tuberculosis (TB-HIV/AIDS is a persistent public health problem in Brazil. This study describes epidemiological patterns and time trends of mortality related to TB-HIV/AIDS co-infection. Based on mortality data from 2000-2011 (almost 12.5 million deaths, 19,815 deaths related to co-infection were analyzed. The average age-adjusted mortality rate was 0.97 deaths/100,000 inhabitants. The highest mortality rates were found among males, those in economically productive age groups, black race/color and residents of the South region. There was a significant reduction in the mortality coefficient at the national level (annual average percent change: -1.7%; 95%CI: -2.4; -1.0, with different patterns among regions: increases in the North, Northeast and Central regions, a reduction in the Southeast and a stabilization in the South. The strategic integration of TB-HIV/AIDS control programmes is fundamental to reduce the burden of mortality related to co-infection in Brazil.

  3. Child Mortality In The US And 19 OECD Comparator Nations: A 50-Year Time-Trend Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakrar, Ashish P; Forrest, Alexandra D; Maltenfort, Mitchell G; Forrest, Christopher B

    2018-01-01

    The United States has poorer child health outcomes than other wealthy nations despite greater per capita spending on health care for children. To better understand this phenomenon, we examined mortality trends for the US and nineteen comparator nations in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development for children ages 0-19 from 1961 to 2010 using publicly available data. While child mortality progressively declined across all countries, mortality in the US has been higher than in peer nations since the 1980s. From 2001 to 2010 the risk of death in the US was 76 percent greater for infants and 57 percent greater for children ages 1-19. During this decade, children ages 15-19 were eighty-two times more likely to die from gun homicide in the US. Over the fifty-year study period, the lagging US performance amounted to over 600,000 excess deaths. Policy interventions should focus on infants and on children ages 15-19, the two age groups with the greatest disparities, by addressing perinatal causes of death, automobile accidents, and assaults by firearm.

  4. Acute hepatitis A, B and C but not D is still prevalent in Mongolia: a time trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baatarkhuu, Oidov; Lee, Hye Won; George, Jacob; Munkh-Orshikh, Dashchirev; Enkhtuvshin, Baasankhuu; Ariunaa, Sosorbaram; Eslam, Mohammed; Ahn, Sang Hoon; Han, Kwang-Hyub; Kim, Do Young

    2017-06-01

    Mongolia has one of the highest hepatitis A, C, B and D infection incidences worldwide. We sought to investigate changes in the proportion of acute viral hepatitis types in Mongolia over the last decade. The cohort comprised 546 consecutive patients clinically diagnosed with acute viral hepatitis from January 2012 to December 2014 in Ulaanbaatar Hospital, Mongolia. A time trend analysis investigating the change in proportion of acute hepatitis A virus, hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis delta virus (HDV) infection among the cohort with respect to a previous published study was undertaken. Acute hepatitis A, B and C was diagnosed in 50.9%, 26.2% and 6.0% of the cohort. Notably, 16.8% of the cohort had a dual infection. The etiologies of acute viral hepatitis were varied by age groups. The most common cause of acute viral hepatitis among 2-19 year olds was hepatitis A, HBV and superinfection with HDV among 20-40 year olds, and HCV among 40-49 year olds. Patients with more than one hepatitis virus infection were significantly older, more likely to be male and had a higher prevalence of all risk factors for disease acquisition. These patients also had more severe liver disease at presentation compared to those with mono-infection. Acute viral hepatitis is still prevalent in Mongolia. Thus, the need for proper infection control is increasing in this country.

  5. Driving under the influence among frequent ecstasy consumers in Australia: trends over time and the role of risk perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Allison Jane; Bruno, Raimondo; Dietze, Paul; Butler, Kerryn; Burns, Lucy

    2014-11-01

    Driving under the influence (DUI) of alcohol and illicit drugs is a serious road safety concern. This research aimed to examine trends in DUI across time and changes in attitudes towards the risks (crash and legal) associated with DUI among regular ecstasy users (REU) interviewed in Australia. Participants were regular (at least monthly) ecstasy users surveyed in 2007 (n=573) or 2011 (n=429) who had driven a car in the last six months. Face to face interviews comprised questions about recent engagement of DUI and roadside breath (alcohol) and saliva (drug) testing. Participants also reported the risk of crash and of being apprehended by police if DUI of alcohol, cannabis, ecstasy, and methamphetamine. There were significant reductions in DUI of psychostimulants (ecstasy, methamphetamine, cocaine, LSD) but not alcohol or cannabis between 2007 and 2011. This was accompanied by increased experience of roadside saliva testing and increases in crash and legal risk perceptions for ecstasy and methamphetamine, but not alcohol or cannabis. When the relationship between DUI and risk variables was examined, low crash risk perceptions were associated with DUI of all substances and low legal risk perceptions were associated with DUI of ecstasy. The observed reduction in DUI of psychostimulants among frequent ecstasy consumers may be related to increased risk awareness stemming from educational campaigns and the introduction of saliva testing on Australian roads. Such countermeasures may be less effective in relation to deterring or changing attitudes towards DUI of cannabis and alcohol among this group. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Impact analysis of the time trend of TBR and irradiation damage assessment of HCSB blanket for CFETR

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    Zeng, Qin, E-mail: zengqin@ustc.edu.cn; Chen, Hongli; Lv, Zhongliang; Pan, Lei; Zhang, Haoran; Shi, Wei

    2017-01-15

    Chinese Fusion Engineering Testing Reactor (CFETR) is a test tokamak reactor to bridge the gap between ITER and future fusion power plants and to demonstrate generation of fusion power in China. In fusion power plants, tritium is generated from the reaction of neutron and Lithium. One of the missions of CFETR is the full cycle of tritium self-sufficiency. For the mission, a Helium Cooled Solid Breeder blanket (HCSB) was proposed for CFETR and its conceptual design has been carried out. In order to assess the capacity of the tritium breeding and irradiation damage of first wall of the HCSB blanket during the 8 years’ engineering test stage, this paper presents the time trend of TBR analysis and irradiation damage assessment of HCSB blanket based on the three-dimensional (3D) neutronics model which is created by McCad. In the 3D neutronics model, the outboard blanket on equatorial plane is described based on the detailed 3D engineering model. The calculations were performed by MCNP and FISPACT with FENDL/2.1 data library. The impact analysis of the thickness of coolant plates (CP) and the structural material content in CPs to the TBR is assessment.

  7. Impact of the global financial crisis on low birth weight in Portugal: a time-trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kana, Musa Abubakar; Correia, Sofia; Peleteiro, Barbara; Severo, Milton; Barros, Henrique

    2017-01-01

    The 2007-2008 global financial crisis had adverse consequences on population health of affected European countries. Few contemporary studies have studied its effect on perinatal indicators with long-lasting influence on adult health. Therefore, in this study, we investigated the impact of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis on low birth weight (LBW) in Portugal. Data on 2 045 155 singleton births of 1995-2014 were obtained from Statistics Portugal. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to identify the years in which changes in LBW trends occurred, and to estimate the annual per cent changes (APC). LBW risk by time period expressed as prevalence ratios were computed using the Poisson regression. Contextual changes in sociodemographic and economic factors were provided by their trends. The joinpoint analysis identified 3 distinct periods (2 jointpoints) with different APC in LBW, corresponding to 1995-1999 (APC=4.4; 95% CI 3.2 to 5.6), 2000-2006 (APC=0.1; 95% CI -050 to 0.7) and 2007-2014 (APC=1.6; 95% CI 1.2 to 2.0). For non-Portuguese, it was, respectively, 1995-1999 (APC=1.4; 95% CI -3.9 to 7.0%), 2000-2007 (APC=-4.2; 95% CI -6.4 to -2.0) and 2008-2014 (APC=3.1; 95% CI 0.8 to 5.5). Compared with 1995-1999, all specific maternal characteristics had a 10-15% increase in LBW risk in 2000-2006 and a 20-25% increase in 2007-2014, except among migrants, for which LBW risk remained lower than in 1995-1999 but increased after the crisis. The increasing LBW risk coincides with a deceleration in gross domestic product growth rate, reduction in health expenditure, social protection allocation on family/children support and sickness. The 2007-2008 global financial crisis was associated with a significant increase in LBW, particularly among infants of non-Portuguese mothers. We recommend strengthening social policies aimed at maternity protection for vulnerable mothers and health system maintenance of social equity in perinatal healthcare.

  8. Analysing home-ownership of couples: the effect of selecting couples at the time of the survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, C H

    1996-09-01

    "The analysis of events encountered by couple and family households may suffer from sample selection bias when data are restricted to couples existing at the moment of interview. The paper discusses the effect of sample selection bias on event history analyses of buying a home [in the Netherlands] by comparing analyses performed on a sample of existing couples with analyses of a more complete sample including past as well as current partner relationships. The results show that, although home-buying in relationships that have ended differs clearly from behaviour in existing relationships, sample selection bias is not alarmingly large." (SUMMARY IN FRE) excerpt

  9. Trends in leisure time and work-related physical activity in the Spanish working population, 1987-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso-Blanco, Cristina; Palacios-Ceña, Domingo; Hernández-Barrera, Valentín; Carrasco-Garrido, Pilar; Jiménez-García, Rodrigo; Fernández-de-Las-Peñas, César

    2012-01-01

    To analyze time trends in the prevalence of leisure time (LTPA) and work-related (WRPA) physical activity between 1987 and 2006 in the Spanish working population. We analyzed data taken from the Spanish National Health Surveys for 1987 (n = 29,647), 1993 (n = 20,707), 1995-1997 (n = 12,800), 2001 (n = 21,058), 2003 (n = 21,650), and 2006 (n = 29,478). The main variables were LTPA and WRPA in working adults aged 18-64 years old. We analyzed sociodemographic characteristics, self-perceived health status, lifestyle habits and associated comorbidities using multivariate logistic regression models. The prevalences of LTPA and WRPA were lower in women than in men (p women; OR = 1.15, 95%CI: 1.02-1.31 for men) and WRPA (OR = 1.73, 95%CI: 1.38-2.19 for women; OR = 1.55, 95%CI: 1.44-1.91 for men) significantly increased from 1987 to 2006. In both genders, the variables associated with a higher likelihood of practicing LTPA were greater age, higher educational level and being an ex- or non-smoker, while negative predictors included being married, worse self-perceived health, and obesity. Factors that increased the probability of reporting WRPA were being married, worse self-rated health status, and sleeping > 8h per day. The only factor that reduced the probability of reporting WRPA was being an ex- or non-smoker. We found an increase in LTPA and WRPA in the last 20 years in the Spanish working population. Several factors were associated with a higher or lower likelihood of practicing LTPA or WRPA in this population. Copyright © 2011 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  10. Job Demands, Burnout, and Teamwork in Healthcare Professionals Working in a General Hospital that Was Analysed At Two Points in Time

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    Dragan Mijakoski

    2018-04-01

    CONCLUSION: Actual longitudinal study revealed significantly higher mean values of emotional exhaustion and depersonalization in 2014 that could be explained by significantly increased job demands between analysed points in time.

  11. Geo-mapping of time trends in childhood caries risk a method for assessment of preventive care

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    Strömberg Ulf

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dental caries is unevenly distributed within populations with a higher burden in low socio-economy groups. Several attempts have been made to allocate resources to those that need them the most; there is a need for convenient approaches to population-based monitoring of caries risk over time. The aim of this study was to develop the geo-map concept, addressing time trends in caries risk, and demonstrate the novel approach by analyzing epidemiological data from preschool residents in the region of Halland, Sweden. Methods The study population consisted of 9,973 (2006 and 10,927 (2010 children between 3 to 6years of age (~77% of the eligible population from whom caries data were obtained. Reported dmfs>0 for a child was considered as the primary caries outcome. Each study individual was geo-coded with respect to his/her residence parish (66 parishes in the region. Smoothed caries risk geo-maps, along with corresponding statistical certainty geo-maps, were produced by using the free software Rapid Inquiry Facility and the ESRI ArcGIS system. Parish-level socioeconomic data were available. Results The overall proportion of caries-free (dmfs=0 children improved from 84.0% in 2006 to 88.6% in 2010. The ratio of maximum and minimum (parish-level smoothed relative risks (SmRRs increased from 1.76/0.44=4.0 in 2006 to 2.37/0.33=7.2 in 2010, which indicated an increased geographical polarization of early childhood caries in the population. Eight parishes showed evidential, positional changes in caries risk between 2006 and 2010; their corresponding SmRRs and statistical certainty ranks changed markedly. No considerable parallel changes in parish-level socioeconomic characteristics were seen during the same time period. Conclusion Geo-maps based on caries risk can be used to monitor changes in caries risk over time. Thus, geo-mapping offers a convenient tool for evaluating the effectiveness of tailored health promotion and preventive

  12. The nutritional status of children in Bhutan: results from the 2008 National nutrition survey and trends over time

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    Zangmo Ugyen

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There are few reports on the nutritional status of Bhutanese children. The objective of this paper is to summarize results from the 2008 National Nutrition Survey and to describe progress achieved during the last two decades. Methods A cross-sectional survey of 2376 children aged 6 to 59 months was conducted during November-December 2008 to provide national and regional estimates. A multi-stage cluster sampling method was applied and 40 gewogs/thromdes were selected from each region (Western, Central, Eastern. Guidelines on how to measure length/height and weight followed WHO standardized procedures. Data were analysed for consistency and validation using the software WHO Anthro and the WHO SPSS macro. Underweight, stunting, overweight, wasting and thinness were defined based on the WHO Child Growth Standards. Data from 1986-88 and 1999 national surveys were reanalysed using the WHO standards to describe trends in nutritional status. Results Nationally, 34.9% Bhutanese preschool children are stunted and 10.4% are underweight. Wasting is 4.7%, with severe wasting close to 2% in rural areas, while overweight affects 4.4% of preschool children. While underweight rates are similar across regions, wasting is substantially more prevalent in the Western region and stunting in the Eastern region. Stunting shows a steep rise during the first two years of life, as high as 40%, and levels off thereafter, while wasting is greatest among children aged 6-24 months and subsequently decreases. The prevalence of stunting fell from 60.9% in 1986-88 to 34.9% in 2008, and underweight declined from 34.0% to 10.4% during same period. The percentage of wasted children dropped from 5.2% in 1986-88 to 2.5% in 1999 but then increased to 4.7% in 2008. Conclusions There have been major improvements in the nutritional status of Bhutanese children over the past two decades, however, linear growth retardation remains a significant concern. Early

  13. Does skin cancer screening save lives? A detailed analysis of mortality time trends in Schleswig-Holstein and Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stang, Andreas; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz

    2016-02-01

    After a pilot study on skin cancer screening was performed between 2003 and 2004 in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany, the country implemented what to the authors' knowledge is the first nationwide skin cancer screening program in the world in 2008. The objective of the current study was to provide details regarding mortality trends in Schleswig-Holstein and Germany in relation to the screening. Annual age-standardized mortality rates for skin melanoma (using the 10th Revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems [ICD-10] code C43) and malignant neoplasms of ill-defined, secondary, and unspecified sites (ICD-10 code C76-C80) were analyzed. The European Standard population was used for age standardization. A bias analysis was performed to estimate the number of skin melanoma deaths that may have been incorrectly counted as ICD-10 code C76-C80 when the skin melanoma mortality declined in Schleswig-Holstein. The observed mortality decline in Schleswig-Holstein 5 years after the pilot study was accompanied by a considerable increase in the number of deaths due to malignant neoplasms of ill-defined, secondary, and unspecified sites (ICD-10 code C76-C80) that is not explainable by an increase in the incidence of these neoplasms. Incorrect assignment of 8 to 35 and 12 to 23 skin melanoma deaths per year among men and women, respectively, as ICD-10 code C76-C80 during 2007 through 2010 could explain the transient skin melanoma mortality decline observed in Schleswig-Holstein. Five years after implementation of the program, the nationwide skin melanoma mortality increased (age-standardized rate change of +0.4 per 100,000 person-years [95% confidence interval, 0.2-0.6] in men and +0.1 per 100,000 person-years [95% confidence interval, -0.1 to 0.2] in women). Although the current analyses raise doubts that the skin cancer screening program in Germany can reduce the skin cancer mortality rate, the authors do not believe the program

  14. A population study on the time trend of cigarette smoking, cessation, and exposure to secondhand smoking from 2001 to 2013 in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi-Yung Chiang

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In 2001, the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS commenced in Taiwan. This survey, conducted on a sample of the whole Taiwanese population, is nationally representative and has a high response rate (>80 %. As a result, the four already completed surveys from 2001 to 2013 can be used to investigate the time trend of smoking prevalence, the rate of cessation, and exposure to secondhand smoking. Methods There were 72918 adults combined from the 2001, 2005, 2009 and 2013 National Health Interview Surveys (NHIS. Smoking status, exposure to secondhand smoking, and smoking cessation were asked, as well as demographic characteristics and other variables. Statistical analyses with sampling weights were carried out using SAS and SUDAAN. Results In males, the prevalence of smoking significantly decreased (rates in 4 surveys were 44.4 %, 44.6 %, 38.9 %, and 34.2 %, respectively. Since 2005 the rate of smoking cessation increased significantly (p = 0.033. The odd ratio (OR exposure of secondhand among non-smokes (OR in 2009 and 2013 were 0.96 (CI = 0.85–1.08 and 0.78 (CI = 0.70–0.88 comparing to 2005. In females, the prevalence of smoking was stable over time. The rate of smoking cessation only appeared significantly high in the older age group. The OR for exposure to secondhand smoking were 0.81 (CI = 0.74–0.89 and 0.68 (CI = 0.62–0.74, for 2009 and 2013 comparing to 2005, respectively. Conclusion Early anti-smoking legislation in Taiwan might have raised the awareness of the harm of smoking. However, the implementation of the Tobacco Hazards Prevention Act (THPA in 2009 had great contribution to the reduction of smoking rate, especially in males.

  15. Uterine cervix cancer treatment at Radiumhemmet: 90 years' experience. Time trends of age, stage, and histopathology distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellman, Kristina; Hellström, Ann-Cathrin; Pettersson, B Folke

    2014-04-01

    Since the introduction of screening programs for cervical cancer (CC) the incidence has decreased and CC is discovered at an earlier stage. The purpose of this study was to analyze time trends in age, stage, and histopathology over a 90-year period and to our knowledge this is the largest single institutional series in the literature of invasive cervical carcinoma (CC) cases. This is a retrospective study comprising 18,472 women treated for CC from 1914 until 2004 at Radiumhemmet, Stockholm. The material is part of the international CC statistics published since 1937 in the League of Nations' Annual Reports, and since 1958 under the patronage of International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO). During the 90-year study period, the annual number of cases treated increased to over 400 up until 1965, after which there was a gradual drop to less than 100 cases in 2004. A pronounced shift toward earlier stages at diagnosis was noted. The mean age at diagnosis increased in all stages, predominantly in advanced stages. A reduction in squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) cases and a sixfold increase in the proportion of adenocarcinoma (AC) cases were observed. The mean age at diagnosis for squamous and AC cases shifted after 1970, when the SCC cases ultimately became 3 years older than the AC cases in contrast to around 1950 when they were 3 years younger than the AC cases. The changes in the distribution by age, stage, and histopathology during this 90-year period are probably associated with: improved social conditions and increased access to health care, the introduction of screening programs for CC in the 1960s, and a change in the risk factors for CC (changed sexual behavior, introduction of contraceptive pills, and changed smoking habits). © 2014 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Trend analysis of GIMMS and MODIS NDVI time series for establishing a land degradation neutrality national baseline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gichenje, Helene; Godinho, Sergio

    2017-04-01

    Land degradation is a key global environment and development problem that is recognized as a priority by the international development community. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted by the global community in 2015, and include a goal related to land degradation and the accompanying target to achieve a land degradation-neutral (LDN) world by 2030. The LDN concept encompasses two joint actions of reducing the rate of degradation and increasing the rate of restoration. Using Kenya as the study area, this study aims to develop and test a spatially explicit methodology for assessing and monitoring the operationalization of a land degradation neutrality scheme at the national level. Time series analysis is applied to Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) satellite data records, based on the hypothesis that the resulting NDVI residual trend would enable successful detection of changes in vegetation photosynthetic capacity and thus serve as a proxy for land degradation and regeneration processes. Two NDVI data sets are used to identify the spatial and temporal distribution of degraded and regenerated areas: the long term coarse resolution (8km, 1982-2015) third generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) NDVI3g data record; and the shorter-term finer resolution (250m, 2001-2015) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived NDVI data record. Climate data (rainfall, temperature and soil moisture) are used to separate areas of human-induced vegetation productivity decline from those driven by climate dynamics. Further, weekly vegetation health (VH) indexes (4km, 1982-2015) developed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), are assessed as indicators for early detection and monitoring of land degradation by estimating vegetation stress (moisture, thermal and combined conditions).

  17. Factors influencing junior doctors' choices of future specialty: trends over time and demographics based on results from UK national surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Fay; Lambert, Trevor W; Goldacre, Michael J

    2015-10-01

    To study trends in factors influencing junior doctors' choice of future specialty. Respondents were asked whether each of 15 factors had a great deal of influence on their career choice, a little influence or no influence on it. Percentages are reported of those who specified that a factor had a great deal of influence on their career choice. UK. A total of 15,765 UK-trained doctors who graduated between 1999 and 2012. Questions about career choices and factors which may have influenced those choices, in particular comparing doctors who qualified in 2008-2012 with those who qualified in 1999-2002. Enthusiasm for and commitment to the specialty was a greater influence on career choice in the 2008-2012 qualifiers (81%) than those of 1999-2002 (64%), as was consideration of their domestic circumstances (43% compared with 20%). Prospects for promotion were less important to recent cohorts (16%) than older cohorts (21%), as were financial prospects (respectively, 10% and 14%). Domestic circumstances and working hours were considered more important, and financial prospects less important, by women than men. Inclination before medical school was rated as important by 41% of doctors who were over 30 years old, compared with 13% of doctors who were under 21, at the time of starting medical school. The increasing importance of both domestic circumstances and enthusiasm for their specialty choice in recent cohorts suggest that today's young doctors prize both work-life balance and personal fulfilment at work more highly than did their predecessors. The differences in motivations of older and younger generations of doctors, men and women, and doctors who start medical school relatively late are worthy of note. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

  18. Long-Term Trends in Marriage Timing and the Impact of Migration, the Netherlands (1650-1899

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charlotte Störmer

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The features of historical marriage patterns have been linked to debates in social and economic history about economic growth and female agency. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence on the demographics of marriage prior to the nineteenth century. Here, we study trends in sex-specific ages at first marriage, regional variation and the impact of migration on marital timing in the Netherlands in the period 1650-1900. We make use of two new large historical datasets, namely an aggregation of Dutch genealogies and the transcribed marriage banns of Amsterdam. This allows us to understand the features and developments of marriage ages from a long-term perspective in what is known as one of the core-areas of the so-called European Marriage Pattern. Our results show high marriage ages for both sexes from the beginning of our study period, increasing until the mid-19th century. A closer look at regional variation reveals clear differences between the provinces and between urban and rural settings with those in the western part of the country and in urban centers marrying earlier. Migrating individuals married on average later than non-migrating individuals both compared to men and women in the receiving community, as to the ‘stayers’ in the location of origin. As later marriage implies a reduction of the window of fertility, especially for women, our results suggest that migration and increasing regional mobility might have been an important driver of the demographic shift toward higher marriage ages and lower fertility in Europe between the 17th and 19th centuries.

  19. Time-trend analysis and developing a forecasting model for the prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, southwest of Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mousavizadeh, A; Dastoorpoor, M; Naimi, E; Dohrabpour, K

    2018-01-01

    This study was designed and implemented to assess the current situation and to estimate the time trend of multiple sclerosis (MS), as well as to explain potential factors associated with such a trend. This longitudinal study was carried out based on analysis of the data from the monitoring and treatment surveillance system for 421 patients with MS in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, Iran, from 1990 to 2015. To this end, curve estimation approach was used to investigate the changes in prevalence and incidence of the disease, and univariate time series model analysis was applied in order to estimate the disease incidence in the next 10 years. The mean and standard deviation of age were 29.78 and 8.5 years at the time of diagnosis, and the mean and 95% confidence interval of age were 29.18 (28.86-30.77) and 29.68 (28.06-31.30) at the time of diagnosis for women and men, respectively. The sex ratio (males to females) was estimated as 3.3, and the prevalence of the disease was estimated as 60.14 in 100,000 people. The diagram of the 35-year trend of the disease indicated three distinct patterns with a tendency to increase in recent years. The prevalence and incidence trend of the disease in the study population is consistent with regional and global changes. Climatic and environmental factors such as extreme weather changes, dust particles, expansion of the application of new industrial materials, and regional wars with potential use of banned weapons are among the issues that may, in part, be able to justify the global and regional changes of the disease. Predictive models indicate a growing trend of the disease, highlighting the need for more regular monitoring of the disease trend in upcoming years. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Trends in colorectal cancer screening over time for persons with and without chronic disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kurtz, Stephen G; Rao, Sowmya R

    2016-07-01

    Persons with disabilities have often experienced disparities in routine cancer screening. However, with civil rights protections from the 1990 Americans with Disabilities Act, such disparities may diminish over time. To examine whether disability disparities exist for colorectal cancer screening and whether these screening patterns have changed over time. We analyzed National Health Interview Survey responses from civilian, non-institutionalized U.S. residents 50-75 years old from selected years between 1998 and 2010. We specified 7 chronic disability indicators using self-reported functional impairments, activity/participation limitations, and expected duration. Separately for women and men, we conducted bivariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses examining associations of self-reported colorectal cancer screening services with sociodemographic factors and disability type. Patterns of chronic disability differed somewhat between women and men; disability rates generally rose over time. For both women and men, colorectal cancer screening rates increased substantially from 1998 through 2010. Over time, relatively few statistically significant differences were reported in colorectal cancer screening rates between nondisabled persons and individuals with various disabilities. In 2010, reported screening rates were generally comparable between nondisabled and disabled persons. In the few statistically significant differences, persons with disabilities almost always reported higher colorectal cancer screening rates than nondisabled individuals. According to national survey data, reported use of colorectal cancer screening is similar between nondisabled persons and individuals with a variety of different disability types. Despite physical demands of some colorectal cancer screening tests, disparities do not appear between populations with and without disability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Statistical significance approximation in local trend analysis of high-throughput time-series data using the theory of Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Li C; Ai, Dongmei; Cram, Jacob A; Liang, Xiaoyi; Fuhrman, Jed A; Sun, Fengzhu

    2015-09-21

    Local trend (i.e. shape) analysis of time series data reveals co-changing patterns in dynamics of biological systems. However, slow permutation procedures to evaluate the statistical significance of local trend scores have limited its applications to high-throughput time series data analysis, e.g., data from the next generation sequencing technology based studies. By extending the theories for the tail probability of the range of sum of Markovian random variables, we propose formulae for approximating the statistical significance of local trend scores. Using simulations and real data, we show that the approximate p-value is close to that obtained using a large number of permutations (starting at time points >20 with no delay and >30 with delay of at most three time steps) in that the non-zero decimals of the p-values obtained by the approximation and the permutations are mostly the same when the approximate p-value is less than 0.05. In addition, the approximate p-value is slightly larger than that based on permutations making hypothesis testing based on the approximate p-value conservative. The approximation enables efficient calculation of p-values for pairwise local trend analysis, making large scale all-versus-all comparisons possible. We also propose a hybrid approach by integrating the approximation and permutations to obtain accurate p-values for significantly associated pairs. We further demonstrate its use with the analysis of the Polymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) microbial community time series from high-throughput sequencing data and found interesting organism co-occurrence dynamic patterns. The software tool is integrated into the eLSA software package that now provides accelerated local trend and similarity analysis pipelines for time series data. The package is freely available from the eLSA website: http://bitbucket.org/charade/elsa.

  2. Acute upper GI bleeding: Did anything change? Time trend analysis of incidence and outcome of acute upper GI bleeding between 1993/1994 and 2000

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Leerdam, M. E.; Vreeburg, E. M.; Rauws, E. A. J.; Geraedts, A. A. M.; Tijssen, J. G. P.; Reitsma, J. B.; Tytgat, G. N. J.