Sample records for time tectonic climatic

  1. Fluvial response time during continuous climate change: A new formulation and applications to climatically and tectonically modulated bedrock fluvial channels (United States)

    Goren, L.; Petit, C.


    Fluvial channels respond to changing tectonic and climatic conditions by adjusting their patterns of erosion and relief. It is therefore expected that by examining these patterns, we can infer the tectonic and climatic conditions that shaped the channels. However, the potential interference between climatic and tectonic signals complicates this inference. Within the framework of the stream power model that describes incision rates of mountainous bedrock rivers, climate variability has two effects: first, it influences the erosive power of the river, causing local slope change, and second, it changes the fluvial response time, that controls the rate at which tectonic and climatic variations are communicated upstream. Because of this dual role, the definition of the response time during continuous climate change has so far been elusive, which hindered our understanding of environmental signal propagation and preservation in the fluvial topography. Here, we propose a new definition of fluvial response time that is based on an analytic solution of the stream power model during any general tectonic and climatic histories. This response time depends on space, time, and climatic history, and it allows using river long profiles to recover either the tectonic history or the climatic history. Furthermore, analytic study of landscape evolution during periodic climate change reveals that high frequency climatic oscillations (with respect to the response time), such as Milankovitch cycles, are topographically damped. The new response time definition is applied to the analysis of the Tinee river tributaries in the southern French Alps. Tributaries long profile is used to recover the incision history of the Tinee main trunk, which shows periodic, high incision rate pulses correlated with interglacial episodes. Similar incision histories are recovered for the past 100 ky when assuming constant climatic conditions or periodic climatic oscillations following global temperature curve.

  2. A theoretical model for fluvial channel response time during time-dependent climatic and tectonic forcing and its inverse applications (United States)

    Goren, Liran


    The fluvial response time dictates the duration of fluvial channel adjustment in response to changing climatic and tectonic conditions. However, when these conditions vary continuously, the channel cannot equilibrate and the response time is not well defined. Here I develop an analytical solution to the linear stream power model of fluvial incision that predicts the channel topography as a function of time-dependent climatic and tectonic conditions. From this solution, a general definition of the fluvial response time emerges: the duration over which the tectonic history needs to be known to evaluate channel topography. This new definition is used in linear inversion schemes for inferring climatic or tectonic histories from river long profiles. The analytic solution further reveals that high-frequency climatic oscillations, such as Milankovitch cycles, are not expected to leave significant fingerprints on the long profiles of fluvially incised detachment-limited rivers.

  3. Climate vs. tectonic induced variations in Cenozoic sediment supply from western Scandinavia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gołędowski, Bartosz; Nielsen, S.B.; Clausen, O.R.

    Eocene times tectonic activity related to the final stage of opening of the North Atlantic was apparently controlling the sediment input in the North Sea as sediment pulses correlate well with tectonic events. Although there is no signs of Cenozoic tectonic activity onshore Scandinavia (igneous bodies......, faulting), tectonic disturbance related to ocean opening could be responsible for deposition of thick Paleocene wedges along the western coast of Norway. During subsequent Cenozoic periods domal structures in the Norwegian shelf are a proof for mild and protracted compression. However, depositional...... patterns from offshore Scandinavia have been interpreted as a result of significant tectonic movements. In the absence of proofs for active tectonic agents we attempt to explain these sediment input variations as a result of climate fluctuations. The Eocene-Oligocene greenhouse-icehouse climate transition...

  4. New Late Permian tectonic model for South Africa's Karoo Basin: foreland tectonics and climate change before the end-Permian crisis. (United States)

    Viglietti, Pia A; Rubidge, Bruce S; Smith, Roger M H


    Late Permian Karoo Basin tectonics in South Africa are reflected as two fining-upward megacycles in the Balfour and upper Teekloof formations. Foreland tectonics are used to explain the cyclic nature and distribution of sedimentation, caused by phases of loading and unloading in the southern source areas adjacent to the basin. New data supports this model, and identifies potential climatic effects on the tectonic regime. Diachronous second-order subaerial unconformities (SU) are identified at the base and top of the Balfour Formation. One third-order SU identified coincides with a faunal turnover which could be related to the Permo-Triassic mass extinction (PTME). The SU are traced, for the first time, to the western portion of the basin (upper Teekloof Formation). Their age determinations support the foreland basin model as they coincide with dated paroxysms. A condensed distal (northern) stratigraphic record is additional support for this tectonic regime because orogenic loading and unloading throughout the basin was not equally distributed, nor was it in-phase. This resulted in more frequent non-deposition with increased distance from the tectonically active source. Refining basin dynamics allows us to distinguish between tectonic and climatic effects and how they have influenced ancient ecosystems and sedimentation through time.

  5. Unsteady Landscapes: Climatic and Tectonic Controls on Fluvial Terrace Formation (United States)

    Clubb, F. J.; Mudd, S. M.


    Fluvial terraces are common landforms throughout mountainous regions which represent abandoned remnants of active river systems and their floodplains. The formation of these landforms points to a fundamental unsteadiness in the incision rate of the fluvial network, providing important information on channel response to climatic, tectonic, and base-level forcing, sediment storage and dynamics within mountainous systems, and the relative importance of lateral and vertical incision rates. In his 1877 Report on the Geology of the Henry Mountains, G.K. Gilbert suggested that strath terraces may form due to climatically-driven increase in sediment supply, causing armouring of the channel bed and hindering vertical incision. An alternative hypothesis suggests that strath terraces may be preserved through progressive tectonic uplift or base-level fall. These different formation mechanisms should result in varying distribution of terrace elevations along channels: if terraces are formed through climate-driven variations in sediment supply, we might expect that terrace elevations would be random, whereas progressive fluvial incision should result in a series of terraces with a systematic elevation pattern. Here we test alternative hypotheses for strath terrace formation using a new method for objectively and rapidly identifying terrace surfaces from digital elevation models (DEMs) over large spatial scales. Our new method identifies fluvial terraces using their gradient and elevation compared to the modern channel, thresholds of which are statistically calculated from the DEM and do not need to be set manually by the user. We use this method to extract fluvial terraces for every major river along the coast of California, and quantify their distribution and elevation along the fluvial long profile. Our results show that there is no systematic pattern in terrace elevations despite a well-constrained spatial variation in uplift rates, suggesting that terraces in this region do

  6. Tectonics (United States)

    John Dewey will complete his term as editor-in-chief of Tectonics at the end of 1984. Clark Burchfiel's term as North American Editor will also end. Tectonics is published jointly with the European Geophysical Society. This newest of AGU's journals has already established itself as an important journal bridging the concerns of geophysics and geology.James A. Van Allen, president of AGU, has appointed a committee to recommend candidates for both editor-in-chief and North American editor for the 1985-1987 term.

  7. Tectonic, Climatic and Anthropogenic Vertical Land Movements in Western Europe by Repeated Absolute Gravity Measurements (United States)

    van Camp, M. J.; de Viron, O.; Lecocq, T.; Hinzen, K. G.; Quinif, Y.; Williams, S. D.; Camelbeeck, T.


    In continental plate interiors, tectonic deformations are small and the associated ground surface movements remain close to or below the accuracy of current geodetic techniques, and at the limit of the noise level. An absolute gravimeter is an appropriate tool to quantify slow vertical movements, as this instrument, based on length and time standards, is drift free and does not depend on any terrestrial reference frame. Repeated absolute gravity (AG) measurements have been performed in Oostende (Belgian coastline) and at 8 stations along a southwest-northeast profile across the Belgian Ardennes and the Roer Valley Graben (Germany), in order to estimate the tectonic deformations in the area. After 7-13 years (depending on the station), we find evidence that the movements are no larger than a few millimeter per year and result from a combination of anthropogenic, climatic, tectonic, and Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) effects. This demonstrates the importance of precisely modeling the GIA effects in order to investigate intraplate tectonic deformations at the sub-millimeter level. This study also shows that AG measurements, repeated once or twice a year, can resolve vertical velocities at the 1.0 mm/yr level after 10 years, even in difficult conditions, provided that the gravimeter is carefully maintained.

  8. Analytically based forward and inverse models of fluvial landscape evolution during temporally continuous climatic and tectonic variations (United States)

    Goren, Liran; Petit, Carole


    Fluvial channels respond to changing tectonic and climatic conditions by adjusting their patterns of erosion and relief. It is therefore expected that by examining these patterns, we can infer the tectonic and climatic conditions that shaped the channels. However, the potential interference between climatic and tectonic signals complicates this inference. Within the framework of the stream power model that describes incision rate of mountainous bedrock rivers, climate variability has two effects: it influences the erosive power of the river, causing local slope change, and it changes the fluvial response time that controls the rate at which tectonically and climatically induced slope breaks are communicated upstream. Because of this dual role, the fluvial response time during continuous climate change has so far been elusive, which hinders our understanding of environmental signal propagation and preservation in the fluvial topography. An analytic solution of the stream power model during general tectonic and climatic histories gives rise to a new definition of the fluvial response time. The analytic solution offers accurate predictions for landscape evolution that are hard to achieve with classical numerical schemes and thus can be used to validate and evaluate the accuracy of numerical landscape evolution models. The analytic solution together with the new definition of the fluvial response time allow inferring either the tectonic history or the climatic history from river long profiles by using simple linear inversion schemes. Analytic study of landscape evolution during periodic climate change reveals that high frequency (10-100 kyr) climatic oscillations with respect to the response time, such as Milankovitch cycles, are not expected to leave significant fingerprints in the upstream reaches of fluvial channels. Linear inversion schemes are applied to the Tinee river tributaries in the southern French Alps, where tributary long profiles are used to recover the

  9. Tectonic and climatic considerations for deep geological disposal of radioactive waste: A UK perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McEvoy, F.M., E-mail: [British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham NG12 5GG (United Kingdom); Schofield, D.I. [British Geological Survey, Tongwynlais, CF15 7NE (United Kingdom); Shaw, R.P. [British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham NG12 5GG (United Kingdom); Norris, S. [Radioactive Waste Management Limited, B587, Curie Avenue, Harwell, Didcot OX11 0RH (United Kingdom)


    Identifying and evaluating the factors that might impact on the long-term integrity of a deep Geological Disposal Facility (GDF) and its surrounding geological and surface environment is central to developing a safety case for underground disposal of radioactive waste. The geological environment should be relatively stable and its behaviour adequately predictable so that scientifically sound evaluations of the long-term radiological safety of a GDF can be made. In considering this, it is necessary to take into account natural processes that could affect a GDF or modify its geological environment up to 1 million years into the future. Key processes considered in this paper include those which result from plate tectonics, such as seismicity and volcanism, as well as climate-related processes, such as erosion, uplift and the effects of glaciation. Understanding the inherent variability of process rates, critical thresholds and likely potential influence of unpredictable perturbations represent significant challenges to predicting the natural environment. From a plate-tectonic perspective, a one million year time frame represents a very short segment of geological time and is largely below the current resolution of observation of past processes. Similarly, predicting climate system evolution on such time-scales, particularly beyond 200 ka AP is highly uncertain, relying on estimating the extremes within which climate and related processes may vary with reasonable confidence. The paper highlights some of the challenges facing a deep geological disposal program in the UK to review understanding of the natural changes that may affect siting and design of a GDF. - Highlights: • Natural processes are key to developing a safety case for geological disposal. • Key factors include plate tectonic and climate-mediated processes. • Process variability is a challenge to predicting the natural environment. • We highlight the challenges for geological disposal programs using

  10. The role of tectonic uplift, climate, and vegetation in the long-term terrestrial phosphorous cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Buendía


    Full Text Available Phosphorus (P is a crucial element for life and therefore for maintaining ecosystem productivity. Its local availability to the terrestrial biosphere results from the interaction between climate, tectonic uplift, atmospheric transport, and biotic cycling. Here we present a mathematical model that describes the terrestrial P-cycle in a simple but comprehensive way. The resulting dynamical system can be solved analytically for steady-state conditions, allowing us to test the sensitivity of the P-availability to the key parameters and processes. Given constant inputs, we find that humid ecosystems exhibit lower P availability due to higher runoff and losses, and that tectonic uplift is a fundamental constraint. In particular, we find that in humid ecosystems the biotic cycling seem essential to maintain long-term P-availability. The time-dependent P dynamics for the Franz Josef and Hawaii chronosequences show how tectonic uplift is an important constraint on ecosystem productivity, while hydroclimatic conditions control the P-losses and speed towards steady-state. The model also helps describe how, with limited uplift and atmospheric input, as in the case of the Amazon Basin, ecosystems must rely on mechanisms that enhance P-availability and retention. Our novel model has a limited number of parameters and can be easily integrated into global climate models to provide a representation of the response of the terrestrial biosphere to global change.

  11. Interactions between tectonics, climate and vegetation during the Cretaceous. A context for the diversification of Angiosperms. (United States)

    Sepulchre, Pierre; Chaboureau, Anne-Claire; Donnadieu, Yannick; Franc, Alain; Ladant, Jean-Baptiste


    It has long been thought that the Angiosperms diversification occurred within a context of warmer-than-present and equable climate during the Cretaceous. However, during the last decade, the view of a uniformely warm Cretaceous climate has been challenged both by paleoclimate proxies and numerical simulations. Among the processes likely affecting climate during this time, atmospheric pCO2 and tectonics appear to be pivotal to drive temperature and precipitation changes, while the feedbacks from vegetation cover changes on the hydrological cycles remain to be explored. Here we attempt to provide a review of the main studies exploring climate-vegetation interactions during the Cretaceous. Then we present climate simulations aiming at quantifying the impact of landmasses redistribution on climate and vegetation distribution from 225 Ma to 70 Ma. In our simulations, the Pangea breakup triggers the decrease of arid belts from the Triassic to the Cretaceous and a subsequent onset of humid conditions during the late Cretaceous. Positioning angiosperm-bearing fossil sites on our paleo-bioclimatic maps confirm that the rise of flowering plants occured within a context of changing climate. With additional simulations in which we modified physiological parameterizations of the vegetation, we explore the combined impact of paleogeography and shift to angiosperms-dominated land surfaces on climate at the regional and global scales. This gives us the opportunity to test earlier ideas that the angiosperms takeover could have benefited from a positive feedback induced by their particular transpiration capacities.

  12. Tectonic, volcanic, and climatic geomorphology study of the Sierras Pampeanas Andes, northwestern Argentina (United States)

    Bloom, A. L.; Strecker, M. R.; Fielding, E. J.


    A proposed analysis of Shuttle Imaging Radar-B (SIR-B) data extends current research in the Sierras Pampeanas and the Puna of northwestern Argentina to the determination - by the digital analysis of mountain-front sinuousity - of the relative age and amount of fault movement along mountain fronts of the late-Cenozoic Sierras Pampeanas basement blocks; the determination of the age and history of the boundary across the Andes at about 27 S latitude between continuing volcanism to the north and inactive volcanism to the south; and the determination of the age and extent of Pleistocene glaciation in the High Sierras, as well as the comparative importance of climatic change and tectonic movements in shaping the landscape. The integration of these studies into other ongoing geology projects contributes to the understanding of landform development in this active tectonic environment and helps distinguish between climatic and tectonic effects on landforms.

  13. Interactions between tectonics, silicate weathering, and climate explored with carbon cycle modeling (United States)

    Penman, D. E.; Caves Rugenstein, J. K.; Ibarra, D. E.; Winnick, M.


    Earth's long-term carbon cycle is thought to benefit from a stabilizing negative feedback in the form of CO2 consumption by the chemical weathering of silicate minerals: during periods of elevated atmospheric pCO2, chemical weathering rates increase, thus consuming more atmospheric CO2 and cooling global climate, whereas during periods of low pCO2, weathering rates decrease, allowing buildup of CO2 in the atmosphere and warming. At equilibrium, CO2 consumption by silicate weathering balances volcanic CO2 degassing at a specific atmospheric pCO2 dictated by the relationship between total silicate weathering rate and pCO2: Earth's "weathering curve." We use numerical carbon cycle modeling to demonstrate that the shape and slope of the weathering curve is crucial to understanding proposed tectonic controls on pCO2 and climate. First, the shape of the weathering curve dictates the equilibrium response of the carbon cycle to changes in the rate of background volcanic/solid Earth CO2 degassing, which has been suggested to vary significantly with plate tectonic reorganizations over geologic timescales. Second, we demonstrate that if tectonic events can significantly change the weathering curve, this can act as an effective driver of pCO2 and climate on tectonic timescales by changing the atmospheric pCO2 at which silicate weathering balances a constant volcanic/solid Earth degassing rate. Finally, we review the complex interplay of environmental factors that affect modern weathering rates in the field and highlight how the resulting uncertainty surrounding the shape of Earth's weathering curve significantly hampers our ability to quantitatively predict the response of pCO2 and climate to tectonic forcing, and thus represents a substantial knowledge gap in Earth science. We conclude with strategies for closing this knowledge gap by using precise paleoclimatic reconstructions of intervals with known tectonic forcings.

  14. Climate vs. tectonic induced variations in Cenozoic sediment supply from western Scandinavia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gołędowski, Bartosz; Nielsen, S.B.; Clausen, O.R.

    . Nielsen, S.B., et al., The evolution of western Scandinavian topography: A review of Neogene uplift versus the ICE (isostasy-climate-erosion) hypothesis. Journal of Geodynamics, 2009. 47(2-3): p. 72-95. 3. Summerfield, M.A., Global geomorphology: an introduction to the study of landforms. Global...... is much less constrained. For this period we therefore search for an alternative explanation in terms of climate and climate change [1-3] Methods The extensive seismic and well data set allow investigation of inland erosion rates via the offshore distribution of sediments. However, varying marine......-quantitative approach is applied in this study. Tectonism and climate in the Cenozoic era A number of Cenozoic tectonic episodes have been constrained by the offshore sedimentary record: 1) structures related to the opening of the North Atlantic [5], 2) changes in plate motions [6], 3) inversion movements...

  15. The Roles of Tectonics and Climate in Driving Erosion Rates in the Eastern Himalaya (United States)

    Larsen, I. J.; Montgomery, D.; Stone, J. O.


    Landslide erosion governs the flux of sediment from non-glaciated mountains. Hence patterns in landslide erosion rates have the potential to reveal how such landscapes respond to spatially-varying climatic and tectonic forcing. Across strong spatial gradients in precipitation and exhumation rates in the eastern Himalaya, we mapped 27,611 landslides and measured 10Be in river sediment in a swath spanning from the Himalayan mountain front northward to the Yarlung Tsangpo Gorge. For the entire landscape, landslide erosion and 10Be-based denudation rates are not correlated with mean annual precipitation. However, erosion and denudation rates increase non-linearly as a function of mean hillslope angles, which is diagnostic of tectonic-driven landslide erosion on threshold hillslopes. Dividing the landscape into distinct geologic-tectonic terranes reveals that erosion rates scale positively with both mean hillslope angles and exhumation rates, but also that threshold topography has not developed throughout the region. Mean annual precipitation rates range from 0.5 to 3 m across the terranes, and erosion rates are highest in the relatively dry Yarlung Tsangpo Gorge, which receives 1.5 m of precipitation annually. However, for areas south of the Gorge, where moisture sources from the south first interact with the orographic barrier of the Himalaya, there is a modest linear increase in erosion rate with increasing mean annual rainfall. These results indicate that tectonics is the main control on spatial patterns of erosion in the eastern Himalaya, but that climate may play a modulating role. Hence the relative roles tectonics and climate play in driving erosion rates likely vary at the sub-orogen scale.

  16. Integrated high-resolution stratigraphy : Relative contributions of tectonics, eustasy and climate on basin evolution (Vienna Basin, Austria)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paulissen, W.E.


    Sedimentary basins form in a range of large-scale tectonic settings involving extensional, compressional or lateral movements. The dynamics of the basin infill are controlled by driving mechanisms such as tectonics, climate and eustatic control. The created accommodation space in the basin is filled

  17. The depositional records of two coastal lakes in south-central Chile (Lago Lanalhue and Lago Lleu Lleu, 38°S): Active forearc tectonics and climate variability (United States)

    Echtler, H. P.; Stefer, S.; Moernaut, J.; Melnick, D.; Arz, H. W.; Lamy, F.; Haug, G. H.


    On millennial time scales, the southern Chilean active margin is not only characterized by active tectonics and subduction-related coastal deformation, but also influenced by pronounced variations in the prevailing climate conditions. Here we focus on the depositional records of two coastal lakes in the southern part of the Arauco Peninsula (38°S, Lago Lanalhue and Lago Lleu Lleu), an area very sensitive to changes in both climate and tectonics. For the present study, we used a multi-proxy approach including seismic reflection surveys, sedimentological, mineralogical, and geochemical analyses, supported by radiocarbon dating. Seismic reflection analyses reveal that Lago Lanalhue and Lago Lleu Lleu developed within former river valleys that once drained into the Pacific Ocean. During the early Holocene, the ancient rivers were dammed by rising sills due to inverse faulting and tectonic uplift, turning first into marginal-marine lagoonal systems and subsequently evolving into lakes. On the basis of sedimentological analyses and radiocarbon dating, the different stages of the lakes development have been reconstructed in consideration of the regional tectonic and climatic history. The comparison of the transitions between different stratigraphic units with contemporaneous variations in the global sea level, allowed the calculation of Holocene uplift rates. These are about twenty times higher for the upraised sills than for the lakes themselves. Therefor, we interpret the sills to be the surface expression of a blind thrust associated with a prominent inverse fault (Morguilla Fault) controlling uplift and folding of the Arauco Peninsula. Geochemical data from the lacustrine part of the sedimentary sequences reveal a continuous record of the middle to late Holocene regional climate history. The results indicate more arid conditions during the middle Holocene and more humid conditions during the late Holocene. An additional increase in climate variability is recorded

  18. Plate tectonic influences on Earth's baseline climate: a 2 billion-year record (United States)

    McKenzie, R.; Evans, D. A.; Eglington, B. M.; Planavsky, N.


    Plate tectonic processes present strong influences on the long-term carbon cycle, and thus global climate. Here we utilize multiple aspects of the geologic record to assess the role plate tectonics has played in driving major icehouse­-greenhouse transitions for the past 2 billion years. Refined paleogeographic reconstructions allow us to quantitatively assess the area of continents in various latitudinal belts throughout this interval. From these data we are able to test the hypothesis that concentrating continental masses in low-latitudes will drive cooler climates due to increased silicate weathering. We further superimpose records of events that are believed to increase the `weatherability' of the crust, such as large igneous province emplacement, island-arc accretion, and continental collisional belts. Climatic records are then compared with global detrital zircon U-Pb age data as a proxy for continental magmatism. Our results show a consistent relationship between zircon-generating magmatism and icehouse-greenhouse transitions for > 2 billion years, whereas paleogeographic records show no clear consistent relationship between continental configurations and prominent climate transitions. Volcanic outgassing appears to exert a first-order control on major baseline climatic shifts; however, paleogeography likely plays an important role in the magnitude of this change. Notably, climatic extremes, such as the Cryogenian icehouse, occur during a combination of reduce volcanism and end-member concentrations of low-latitudinal continents.

  19. Late Quaternary river channel migrations of the Kura River in Transcaucasia - tectonic versus climatic causes (United States)

    von Suchodoletz, Hans; Gärtner, Andreas; Hoth, Silvan; Umlauft, Josefine; Godoladze, Tea; Faust, Dominik


    Large-scale river channel migrations either in the form of avulsions or combing, i.e. progressive lateral migrations, are global phenomena during the Late Quaternary. Such channel migrations were triggered by tectonics, climate change, human activity or a combination of those factors. River channel migrations have the potential to cause significant human and economic losses. Thus, a more thorough knowledge about underlying causes and process rates is essential. Furthermore, such studies will elucidate the sensitivity or robustness of rivers to different external and internal forcing-agents, i.e. they help to identify the dominant drivers of regional landscape evolution. The Caucasus region is part of the active collision zone between the Africa-Arabian and the Eurasian plates, and is characterized by high current tectonic activity. Furthermore, significant environmental changes took place during the Late Quaternary, i.e. the shrinking or even disappearance of glaciers in the Greater and Lesser Caucasus or fundamental changes of the vegetation cover varying between woodland and grassland-dominated vegetation. The Kura River is the main gaining stream of the Transcaucasian Depression located between the Greater Caucasus Mountains in the north and the Lesser Caucasus Mountains in the south, and receives several tributaries from both mountain ranges. This study focusses on the middle course of the Kura River in eastern Georgia, SE of the city of Tbilisi. Integration of fluvial geomorphology, geochronology, heavy mineral analyses and seismo-tectonic analyses demonstrates that this part of the Kura River underwent large-scale channel migrations up to >10 km during Late Pleistocene and Holocene. It is interpreted that these movements followed both tectonic and climatic triggers: Whereas SW-ward migrations were caused by tectonic uplift in and SW-directed advance of the Kura fold and thrust belt as part of the Greater Caucasus, NE-ward migrations occurred during cold

  20. Cenozoic sediment flux in the Qaidam Basin, northern Tibetan Plateau, and implications with regional tectonics and climate (United States)

    Bao, Jing; Wang, Yadong; Song, Chunhui; Feng, Ying; Hu, Chunhua; Zhong, Sirui; Yang, Jiwei


    As the largest Mesozoic-Cenozoic terrestrial intermountain basin in the northern Tibetan Plateau, the Qaidam Basin is an ideal basin to examine the influences of regional tectonics and climate on sediment flux. Research conducted over the last two decades has provided abundant information about paleoclimatology and tectonic histories. In this study, we used the restoration of seven balanced cross-sections and compiled thickness data of ten outcrop sections and four boreholes to reconstruct the basin boundaries, develop isopach maps, and calculate the sediment flux in the Qaidam Basin. Our results show that the sediment flux in the Qaidam Basin increased gradually between 53.5 and 35.5 Ma, decreased to its lowest value from 35.5 to 22 Ma, increased between 22 and 2.5 Ma, and then increased dramatically after 2.5 Ma. By comparing the changes in the sediment flux with our reconstructed shortening rate in the Qaidam Basin, and the records of regional tectonic events and regional and global climate changes, we suggest that the gradual increase in the sediment flux from 53.5 to 40.5 Ma was controlled by both the tectonic uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and the relatively warm and humid climate, and that the high sediment flux from 40.5 to 35.5 Ma was mainly controlled by tectonics. The low sediment flux from 35.5 to 22 Ma was a response to the relatively cold and arid climate in a stable tectonic setting. The relatively high sediment flux between 22 and 15.3 Ma was related to tectonic activity and the warm and humid climate. The intense tectonic uplift of the northern Tibetan Plateau and the frequent climate oscillations after 15.3 Ma, particularly the glacial-interglacial cycles after 2.5 Ma, caused the high sediment flux after 15.3 Ma and the dramatic increase after 2.5 Ma, respectively.

  1. Tectonics, orbital forcing, global climate change, and human evolution in Africa: introduction to the African paleoclimate special volume. (United States)

    Maslin, Mark A; Christensen, Beth


    The late Cenozoic climate of Africa is a critical component for understanding human evolution. African climate is controlled by major tectonic changes, global climate transitions, and local variations in orbital forcing. We introduce the special African Paleoclimate Issue of the Journal of Human Evolution by providing a background for and synthesis of the latest work relating to the environmental context for human evolution. Records presented in this special issue suggest that the regional tectonics, appearance of C(4) plants in East Africa, and late Cenozoic global cooling combined to produce a long-term drying trend in East Africa. Of particular importance is the uplift associated with the East African Rift Valley formation, which altered wind flow patterns from a more zonal to more meridinal direction. Results in this volume suggest a marked difference in the climate history of southern and eastern Africa, though both are clearly influenced by the major global climate thresholds crossed in the last 3 million years. Papers in this volume present lake, speleothem, and marine paleoclimate records showing that the East African long-term drying trend is punctuated by episodes of short, alternating periods of extreme wetness and aridity. These periods of extreme climate variability are characterized by the precession-forced appearance and disappearance of large, deep lakes in the East African Rift Valley and paralleled by low and high wind-driven dust loads reaching the adjacent ocean basins. Dating of these records show that over the last 3 million years such periods only occur at the times of major global climatic transitions, such as the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (2.7-2.5 Ma), intensification of the Walker Circulation (1.9-1.7 Ma), and the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution (1-0.7 Ma). Authors in this volume suggest this onset occurs as high latitude forcing in both Hemispheres compresses the Intertropical Convergence Zone so that East Africa

  2. The Role of Plate Tectonic-Climate Coupling and Exposed Land Area in the Development of Habitable Climates on Rocky Planets (United States)

    Foley, Bradford J.


    The long-term carbon cycle is vital for maintaining liquid water oceans on rocky planets due to the negative climate feedbacks involved in silicate weathering. Plate tectonics plays a crucial role in driving the long-term carbon cycle because it is responsible for CO2 degassing at ridges and arcs, the return of CO2 to the mantle through subduction, and supplying fresh, weatherable rock to the surface via uplift and orogeny. However, the presence of plate tectonics itself may depend on climate according to recent geodynamical studies showing that cool surface temperatures are important for maintaining vigorous plate tectonics. Using a simple carbon cycle model, I show that the negative climate feedbacks inherent in the long-term carbon cycle are uninhibited by climate's effect on plate tectonics. Furthermore, initial atmospheric CO2 conditions do not impact the final climate state reached when the carbon cycle comes to equilibrium, as long as liquid water is present and silicate weathering can occur. Thus an initially hot, CO2 rich atmosphere does not prevent the development of a temperate climate and plate tectonics on a planet. However, globally supply limited weathering does prevent the development of temperate climates on planets with small subaerial land areas and large total CO2 budgets because supply limited weathering lacks stabilizing climate feedbacks. Planets in the supply limited regime may become inhospitable for life and could experience significant water loss. Supply limited weathering is less likely on plate tectonic planets because plate tectonics promotes high erosion rates and thus a greater supply of bedrock to the surface.

  3. The ICDP Dead Sea deep drill cores: records of climate change and tectonics in the Levant (United States)

    Goldstein, S. L.; Stein, M.; Ben-Avraham, Z.; Agnon, A.; Ariztegui, D.; Brauer, A.; Haug, G. H.; Ito, E.; Kitagawa, H.; Torfstein, A.


    The Dead Sea drainage basin sits at the boundary of the Mediterranean and the Saharan climate zones, and the basin is formed by the Dead Sea transform fault. The ICDP-funded Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project recovered the longest and most complete paleo-environmental and paleo-seismic record in the Middle East, drilling holes of ~450 and ~350 meters in deep (~300 m below the lake level) and shallow sites (~3 m), respectively, and. The sediments record the evolving environmental conditions (e.g. droughts, rains, floods, dust-storms), as well as tectonics (earthquake layers). The core can be dated using 14C on organic materials, U-Th on inorganic aragonite, stable isotopes, and layer counting. They were opened, described, and XRF-scanned during June to November 2011, the first sampling party took place in July 2012, and study is now underway. Some important conclusions can already be drawn. The stratigraphy reflects the climate conditions. During wet climate intervals the lithology is typically varve-like laminated aragonite and detritus (aad), reflecting summer and winter seasons, respectively, and sequences of mud. Gypsum layers reflect more arid climate, and salt (halite) indicates extreme aridity. The Dead Sea expands during glacials, and the portion of the core that corresponds to the last glacial Lisan Formation above the shoreline is easily recognized in the core based on the common lithological sequence, and this allows us to infer a broad scale age model. Interglacials show all the lithologic facies (aad, mud, gypsum, salt), reflecting extreme climate variability, while glacials contain the aad, mud, and gypsum but lack salt layers. Thus we estimate that the deep site hole extends into MIS 7 (to ~200,000 years). Thin (up to several cm thick) seismic layers occur throughout the core, but thick (up to several meters) landslide deposits only occur during glacial intervals. The most dramatic discovery is evidence of an extreme dry interval during MIS 5 at the deep

  4. Interactions between climatic forcing of lake level change, tectonics and volcanism in the Rungwe Volcanic Province, SW Highlands of Tanzania (United States)

    Delvaux, D.; Williamson, D.


    The Rungwe Volcanic Province extends between the Rukwa and Nyasa (Malawi) rift lakes, which both experimented marked water level fluctuations (several hundred meters in altitude) during the last 40 ka. The infilling of water reservoirs whether artificial or natural, is known to be able to trigger earthquakes and volcanism (Ambraseys and Sarma, 1968). In the Southwestern Highlands of Tanzania and most especially in the Rungwe Volcanic Province where the western and eastern branches of the East African Rift System meet, a similar link is likely highlighted. Compilation of available data supplemented by new observations allows investigating the time relations between (1) climatically induced, rapid water level fluctuations in the surrounding rift lakes, (2) tectonic activation of the fault systems that extend from the lacustrine depressions to the volcanic area, and (3) deposition of tephra layers in soils and sediments. The latter are considered to reflect the frequency and/or magnitude of explosive eruptions in the Rungwe massif. According to these data, a connexion is suggested between the great lakes level change, tectonics, and volcanic activity for the last glacial - interglacial transition (14 - 11.5 cal. ka BP), and possibly also during the Holocene.

  5. The Late Cenozoic Climatic and Tectonic Evolution of the Mount Everest Region, Central Himalaya (United States)

    Schultz, Mary Hannah

    The collision of India and Eurasia constructed the Himalayan Mountains. Questions remain regarding how subsequent exhumation by climatic and tectonic processes shaped the landscape throughout the Late Cenozoic to create the complex architecture observed today. The Mount Everest region underwent tectonic denudation by extension and bestrides one of the world's most significant rain shadows. Also, glacial and fluvial processes eroded the Everest massif over shorter timescales. In this work, I review new bedrock and detrital thermochronological and geochronological data and both one- and two-dimensional thermal-mechanical modeling that provides insights on the age range and rates of tectonic and erosional processes in this region. A strand of the South Tibetan detachment system (STDS), a series of prominent normal-sense structures that dip to the north and strike along the Himalayan spine, is exposed in the Rongbuk valley near Everest. Using thermochronometric techniques, thermal-kinematic modeling, and published (U-Th)/Pb geochronology, I show exhumation rates were high ( 3-4 mm/a) from at least 20 to 13 Ma because of slip on the STDS. Subsequently, exhumation rates dropped drastically to ≤ 0.5 mm/a and remain low today. However, thermochronometric datasets and thermal-kinematic modeling results from Nepal south of Everest reveal a sharp transition in cooling ages and exhumation rates across a major knickpoint in the river profile, corresponding to the modern-day Himalayan rainfall transition. To the north of this transition, exhumation histories are similar to those in Tibet. Conversely, Everest. Integrated laser ablation U/Pb and (U-Th)/He dating of detrital zircon from fluvial and moraine sediments reveal sourcing from distinctive areas of the catchment. In general, the glacial advances eroded material from lower elevations, while the glacial outwash system carries material from higher elevations.

  6. Tectonic and climatic controls on late quaternary sedimentary processes in a neotectonic intramontane basin, the Pitalito Basin, South Colombia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, J.


    The present study deals with the influence of tectonics and climatic changes on sedimentation patterns in the Quaternary Pitalito Basin (lat. 1°52'N, long. 76°02'W). This intramontane sedimentary basin is 15 km in width and 20 kin in length and is located in the Eastern Cordillera of the

  7. The Opening of the Arctic-Atlantic Gateway: Tectonic, Oceanographic and Climatic Dynamics - an IODP Initiative (United States)

    Geissler, Wolfram; Knies, Jochen


    The modern polar cryosphere reflects an extreme climate state with profound temperature gradients towards high-latitudes. It developed in association with stepwise Cenozoic cooling, beginning with ephemeral glaciations and the appearance of sea ice in the late middle Eocene. The polar ocean gateways played a pivotal role in changing the polar and global climate, along with declining greenhouse gas levels. The opening of the Drake Passage finalized the oceanographic isolation of Antarctica, some 40 Ma ago. The Arctic Ocean was an isolated basin until the early Miocene when rifting and subsequent sea-floor spreading started between Greenland and Svalbard, initiating the opening of the Fram Strait / Arctic-Atlantic Gateway (AAG). Although this gateway is known to be important in Earth's past and modern climate, little is known about its Cenozoic development. However, the opening history and AAG's consecutive widening and deepening must have had a strong impact on circulation and water mass exchange between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic. To study the AAG's complete history, ocean drilling at two primary sites and one alternate site located between 73°N and 78°N in the Boreas Basin and along the East Greenland continental margin are proposed. These sites will provide unprecedented sedimentary records that will unveil (1) the history of shallow-water exchange between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic, and (2) the development of the AAG to a deep-water connection and its influence on the global climate system. The specific overarching goals of our proposal are to study: (1) the influence of distinct tectonic events in the development of the AAG and the formation of deep water passage on the North Atlantic and Arctic paleoceanography, and (2) the role of the AAG in the climate transition from the Paleogene greenhouse to the Neogene icehouse for the long-term (~50 Ma) climate history of the northern North Atlantic. Getting a continuous record of the

  8. Pacing of deep marine sedimentation in the middle Eocene synorogenic Ainsa Basin, Spanish Pyrenees: deconvolving a 6myr record of tectonic and climate controls (United States)

    Mac Niocaill, C.; Cantalejo, B.; Pickering, K. T.; Grant, M.; Johansen, K.


    The Middle Eocene thrust-top Ainsa Basin of Northern Spain preserves world-class exposures of deep-marine submarine fan and related deposits. Detailed paleomagnetic, micropaleontologic, and time-series analysis enable us to deconvolve, for the first time in any ancient deep-marine basin worldwide, both the pacing on deposition of the fine-grained interfan sediments and the main sandbodies (submarine fans) through the history of the deep-marine basin. Our magnetostratigraphy and faunal constraints provide a chronological framework for sedimentation in the basin. We use time-series analysis of a range of geochemical and sedimentologic data to identify likely climatic signals in the sedimentary archive. This has enabled us to test the likely importance of climate versus tectonics in controlling deposition. We show that the fine-grained interfan sedimentation preserves a dominant Milankovitch-like cyclicity, whereas the sandbodies (fans) reflect a complex interplay of controls such as tectonics and climate in the sediment source area, including shallow-marine staging areas for sediment redeposition into deeper water. These results not only provide critical information about the timing of substantial coarse clastic delivery into the Ainsa Basin but also give constraints on sediment flux over a 6 Myr window.

  9. Estimates of late Cenozoic climate change relevant to Earth surface processes in tectonically active orogens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. G. Mutz


    Full Text Available The denudation history of active orogens is often interpreted in the context of modern climate gradients. Here we address the validity of this approach and ask what are the spatial and temporal variations in palaeoclimate for a latitudinally diverse range of active orogens? We do this using high-resolution (T159, ca. 80  ×  80 km at the Equator palaeoclimate simulations from the ECHAM5 global atmospheric general circulation model and a statistical cluster analysis of climate over different orogens (Andes, Himalayas, SE Alaska, Pacific NW USA. Time periods and boundary conditions considered include the Pliocene (PLIO,  ∼  3 Ma, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM,  ∼  21 ka, mid-Holocene (MH,  ∼  6 ka, and pre-industrial (PI, reference year 1850. The regional simulated climates of each orogen are described by means of cluster analyses based on the variability in precipitation, 2 m air temperature, the intra-annual amplitude of these values, and monsoonal wind speeds where appropriate. Results indicate the largest differences in the PI climate existed for the LGM and PLIO climates in the form of widespread cooling and reduced precipitation in the LGM and warming and enhanced precipitation during the PLIO. The LGM climate shows the largest deviation in annual precipitation from the PI climate and shows enhanced precipitation in the temperate Andes and coastal regions for both SE Alaska and the US Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, LGM precipitation is reduced in the western Himalayas and enhanced in the eastern Himalayas, resulting in a shift of the wettest regional climates eastward along the orogen. The cluster-analysis results also suggest more climatic variability across latitudes east of the Andes in the PLIO climate than in other time slice experiments conducted here. Taken together, these results highlight significant changes in late Cenozoic regional climatology over the last  ∼  3 Myr. Comparison

  10. Estimates of late Cenozoic climate change relevant to Earth surface processes in tectonically active orogens (United States)

    Mutz, Sebastian G.; Ehlers, Todd A.; Werner, Martin; Lohmann, Gerrit; Stepanek, Christian; Li, Jingmin


    The denudation history of active orogens is often interpreted in the context of modern climate gradients. Here we address the validity of this approach and ask what are the spatial and temporal variations in palaeoclimate for a latitudinally diverse range of active orogens? We do this using high-resolution (T159, ca. 80 × 80 km at the Equator) palaeoclimate simulations from the ECHAM5 global atmospheric general circulation model and a statistical cluster analysis of climate over different orogens (Andes, Himalayas, SE Alaska, Pacific NW USA). Time periods and boundary conditions considered include the Pliocene (PLIO, ˜ 3 Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ˜ 21 ka), mid-Holocene (MH, ˜ 6 ka), and pre-industrial (PI, reference year 1850). The regional simulated climates of each orogen are described by means of cluster analyses based on the variability in precipitation, 2 m air temperature, the intra-annual amplitude of these values, and monsoonal wind speeds where appropriate. Results indicate the largest differences in the PI climate existed for the LGM and PLIO climates in the form of widespread cooling and reduced precipitation in the LGM and warming and enhanced precipitation during the PLIO. The LGM climate shows the largest deviation in annual precipitation from the PI climate and shows enhanced precipitation in the temperate Andes and coastal regions for both SE Alaska and the US Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, LGM precipitation is reduced in the western Himalayas and enhanced in the eastern Himalayas, resulting in a shift of the wettest regional climates eastward along the orogen. The cluster-analysis results also suggest more climatic variability across latitudes east of the Andes in the PLIO climate than in other time slice experiments conducted here. Taken together, these results highlight significant changes in late Cenozoic regional climatology over the last ˜ 3 Myr. Comparison of simulated climate with proxy-based reconstructions for the MH and

  11. Late Pleistocene-Holocene sedimentary processes at the active margin of South-Central Chile : marine and lacustrine sediment records as archives of tectonics and climate variability


    Stefer, Susanne


    Active continental margins are affected by complex feedbacks between tectonic, climate and surface processes, the intricate relations of which are still a matter of discussion. The Chilean convergent margin, forming the outstanding Andean subduction orogen, constitutes an ideal natural laboratory for the investigation of climate, tectonics and their interactions. In order to study both processes, I examined marine and lacustrine sediments from different depositional environments on- and offsh...

  12. Post-tectonic landscape evolution in NE Iberia using staircase terraces: Combined effects of uplift and climate (United States)

    Lewis, Claudia J.; Sancho, Carlos; McDonald, Eric V.; Peña-Monné, José Luis; Pueyo, Emilio L.; Rhodes, Edward; Calle, Mikel; Soto, Ruth


    River incision into bedrock resulting from the combined effects of tectonic uplift and climate governs long-term regional landscape evolution. We determined spatial and temporal patterns of post-orogenic stream incision from a sequence of well-preserved staircase terraces developed over the last 1 Ma in the Central Pyrenees and its southern foreland Ebro basin (NE Spain). Extensive remnants of ten vertically separated terraces (Qt1 to Qt10, from oldest to youngest) were mapped along 170 km of the Cinca River valley, transverse to the Pyrenean mountain belt. Multiple outcrops appear in the upper reach of the valley (Ainsa sector, 50 km from headwaters) as well as in the lower reach (Albalate sector, 125 km from headwaters). Fluvial incision into bedrock was calculated using (i) differentially corrected GPS measurements of the altitude of straths and (ii) numerical dating of alluvial sediments from the lower terraces (Qt5 to Qt9) by Optically Stimulated Luminescence, previously reported by Lewis et al. (2009), and supplemented with new dates for the upper terraces (Qt1, Qt2 and Qt3) based on paleomagnetism and supported by soil development. Considering altitude differences and the elapsed time between successive well preserved terrace couples (Qt3-Qt7, Qt7-Qt9 and Qt9-Active channel), mean bedrock incision rates ranged from 0.76 to 0.38 m ka- 1, at the upper reach of the valley (Ainsa section), and from 0.61 to 0.20 m ka- 1, at the lower reach (Albalate section). River incision along the valley produced vertically separated, near-parallel longitudinal terrace profiles evidencing a rapid near-uniform regional uplift as response to (i) the tectonic lithospheric thickening in NE Iberia and (ii) the erosional download rebound related to the Ebro basin exorheism. Moreover, a subtle upstream divergence of strath profiles may have been a consequence of an increase in uplift rate toward the head of the valley. Additionally, incision rates changed over time as indicate

  13. Time-domain study of tectonic strain-release effects on seismic waves from underground nuclear explosions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakanishi, K.K.; Sherman, N.W.


    Tectonic strain release affects both the amplitude and phase of seismic waves from underground nuclear explosions. Surface wave magnitudes are strongly affected by the component of tectonic strain release in the explosion. Amplitudes and radiation patterns of surface waves from explosions with even small tectonic components change magnitudes significantly and show a strong dependence on receiver locations. A thrust-slip source superimposed on an isotropic explosion can explain observed reversals in waveform at different azimuths and phase delays between normal and reversed Rayleigh waves. The mechanism of this reversal is due to the phase relationship between reasonable explosion and tectonic release sources. Spallation or an unusual source time function are not required. The observations of Shagan River events imply thrust-slip motion along faults in a northwest-southeast direction, which is consistent with regional tectonics

  14. Tectonic and Climatic Control of Landscape Evolution in the Northern Sierras Pampeanas, Argentina (United States)

    Sobel, E. R.; Strecker, M. R.


    Rock uplift, surface uplift and exhumation can be constrained if thermochronologic data can be converted to exhumation and if geological relations provide a datum. In the northern Sierras Pampeanas of Argentina, the Cenozoic Santa María basin, which overlay resistant crystalline basement prior to rapid exhumation, provides an ideal setting to examine the effect of contrasting thermal and erosional regimes. There, tectonically active reverse-fault bounded blocks partly preserve a basement peneplain at elevations >4500 m. Prior to exhumation, the study area was covered by 1 to 1.6 km of ca. 12-6 Ma sediments; this sequence begins with shallow marine deposits immediately overlying the regional erosion surface which are superseded by sandstones and conglomerates. These rapidly deposited sediments have low thermal conductivity and are readily eroded, in contrast to underlying resistant basement. Apatite fission-track data were obtained from two vertical transects in the Calchaquíes and Aconquija ranges bounding the basin. At Cumbres Calchaquíes, erosion leading to the development of the peneplain commenced in the Cretaceous; limited late Neogene cooling is documented by track-length modeling. In contrast, Sierra Aconquija cooled rapidly between 5.5 and 4.5 My. At the onset of this rapid exhumation, sediment was quickly removed, causing fast cooling, but relatively slow rates of surface uplift. Syntectonic conglomerates could only be produced when faulting exposed resistant bedrock; this change in rock erodability lead to enhanced surface uplift rates but decreased exhumation rates. The creation of an orographic barrier after the range had attained sufficient elevation further decreased exhumation rates on the leeward side and increased surface uplift rates. This imbalance cannot be sustained for extended periods of time; either crustal strength or bedrock fluvial incision will ultimately limit the magnitude of relief which can be created before tectonism, and hence

  15. Gold in the hills: patterns of placer gold accumulation under dynamic tectonic and climatic conditions (United States)

    Roy, Sam; Upton, Phaedra; Craw, Dave


    Formation of placer accumulations in fluvial environments requires 103-106 or even greater times concentration of heavy minerals. For this to occur, regular sediment supply from erosion of adjacent topography is required, the river should remain within a single course for an extended period of time and the material must be reworked such that a high proportion of the sediment is removed while a high proportion of the heavy minerals remains. We use numerical modeling, constrained by observations of circum-Pacific placer gold deposits, to explore processes occurring in evolving river systems in dynamic tectonic environments. A fluvial erosion/transport model is used to determine the mobility of placer gold under variable uplift rate, storm intensity, and rock mass strength conditions. Gold concentration is calculated from hydraulic and bedload grain size conditions. Model results suggest that optimal gold concentration occurs in river channels that frequently approach a threshold between detachment-limited and transport-limited hydraulic conditions. Such a condition enables the accumulation of gold particles within the framework of a residual gravel lag. An increase in transport capacity, which can be triggered by faster uplift rates, more resistant bedrock, or higher intensity storm events, will strip all bedload from the channel. Conversely, a reduction in transport capacity, triggered by a reduction in uplift rate, bedrock resistance, or storm intensity, will lead to a greater accumulation of a majority of sediments and a net decrease in gold concentration. For our model parameter range, the optimal conditions for placer gold concentration are met by 103 times difference in strength between bedrock and fault, uplift rates between 1 and 5 mm a-1, and moderate storm intensities. Fault damage networks are shown to be a critical factor for high Au concentrations and should be a target for exploration.

  16. The Geomorphometrics of the Rio Grande Rift: The role of tectonics, climate, and erosional processes in forming the Rio Grande river (United States)

    Berry, M. A.; van Wijk, J.; Emry, E.; Axen, G. J.; Coblentz, D. D.


    Geomorphometrics provides a powerful tool for quantifying the topographic fabric of a landscape and can help with correlating surface features with underlying dynamic processes. Here we use a suite of geomorphometric metrics (including the topographic power spectra, fabric orientation/organization) to compare and contrast the geomorphology of two of the world's major rifts, the Rio Grande Rift (RGR) in western US and the East Africa Rift (EAR). The motivation for this study is the observation of fundamental differences between the characteristics of the intra-rift river drainage for the two rifts. The RGR consists of a series of NS trending rift basins, connected by accommodation or transfer zones. The Rio Grande river developed in the late Neogene, and follows these rift segments from the San Luis basin in Colorado to the Gulf of Mexico. Before the river system formed, basins are thought to have formed internally draining systems, characterized by shallow playa lakes. This is in contrast with lakes in the Tanganyika and Malawi rifts of the East African Rift that are deep and have existed for >5 My. We investigate the role of climate, tectonics and erosional processes in the formation of the through-going Rio Grande river. This occurred around the time of a slowing down of rift opening ( 10 Ma), but also climatic changes in the southwestern U.S. have been described for the late Neogene. To model our hypothesis, a tectonics and surface transport code TISC (Transport, Isostasy, Surface Transport, Climate) was used to evaluate the dynamics of a series of proto-rift basins and their connecting accommodation zones. Basin infill and drainage system development are studied as a result of varying sediment budgets, climate variables, and rift opening rate.

  17. Modeling the Response of Climate and Precipitation Oxygen Stable Isotopes to the Tectonic Development of the Indian Collision Zone during the Cenozoic (United States)

    Botsyun, S.; Sepulchre, P.; Donnadieu, Y.; Risi, C.; Licht, A.; Caves, J. K.


    Tectonics-climate interaction as well as the impact of greenhouse forcing on climate has become a major focus of paleoclimate studies since the quarter of the century. The Himalayas and the Tibetan plateau owes its current height to the Cenozoic collision between Indian and Asian plates, since 55 Ma. However, the timing and rate of surface elevations remain controversial and its impact on Asian climate and the onset of monsoon systems is highly debated. Stable oxygen paleoaltimetry is considered to be a very efficient and widely applied technique, but has limitations from two sides: 1) the link between stable oxygen composition of precipitation and climate is not well established, 2) Cenozoic climate over Asia is poorly reconstructed. With a purpose of filling the gap in our knowledge of climate variability over Asia during the Cenozoic climate we use the atmospheric general circulation model LMDZ. Paleocene, Eocene, Oligocene and Miocene boundary conditions have been applied together with various scenarios of TP growth. The results of our numerical modeling show a significant influence of paleogeography on the Asian climate. Moreover, we use isotope-equipped atmospheric model LMDZ-iso for understanding the controlling factors of δ18O in precipitation. Experiments with reduced height over the Tibetan Plateau and the Himalayas have been designed. We develop a theoretical expression for the precipitation composition. In addition, realist Cenozoic boundary conditions together with isotope-equipped atmospheric model allowed reconstructing δ18O in paleoprecipitation for several periods during the Cenozoic, while comparison of simulated δ18O patterns with data from carbonate archives allowed revealing possible limitations of paleoelevation techniques based on stable oxygen isotopes.

  18. Discriminating Between Tectonic and Climatic Controls on Early Hominin Paleoenvironments From the Koobi Fora Region, Northeastern Turkana Basin, Kenya: Part I (United States)

    Lepre, C. J.; Quinn, R. L.


    Understanding controls on environmental records from Plio-Pleistocene Africa is critical for interpreting human origins. Recent geological studies from East Africa have focused on the relationship between Plio-Pleistocene patterns of hominin evolution, environmental change, and climate preserved in stratigraphic records of sedimentary basins (e.g. deMenocal, 2004; Wynn, 2004). Despite the fact that tectonics is a primary control on sedimentation in East African basins (e.g. Baker, 1986; Frostick, 1997), relatively few studies have either investigated its potential influence on early hominin evolution or attempted to discriminate between tectonic and climate controls on paleoenvironmental change. Presented is a study that explores these issues. Within the Koobi Fora Formation, between 4.0 and 2.5 Ma, environmental change is related to an overall trend of linear rates of tectonic subsidence. However, smaller-scale fluctuations in subsidence rates established lakes during times of increased subsidence followed by the transition to rivers during times of decreased subsidence and basin infilling (Feibel, 1994a, 2000). In contrast, environmental change during the period between 2.5 and 1.5 Ma was forced by changes in half-graben propagation, fault movement, and subsidence. This change is recorded within a stratigraphic sequence that is defined by major (erosional) boundary surface unconformities. The sequence is internally comprised of stable-lacustrine; stable-lacustrine, delta, and ephemeral-lacustrine; and fluvial environments of deposition. This environmental progression defines lowstand, transgressive, and highstand systems tracts respectively. Transition between systems tracts and depositional environments was controlled by rates of tectonic subsidence. The formation of stable-lacustrine environments of deposition during the lowstand systems tract was due to subsidence rates out-pacing sedimentation rates that was associated with a major tectonic event

  19. Plate tectonics, seaways and climate in the historical biogeography of mammals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Barry Cox


    Full Text Available The marsupial and placental mammals originated at a time when the pattern of geographical barriers (oceans, shallow seas and mountains was very different from that of today, and climates were warmer. The sequence of changes in these barriers, and their effects on the dispersal of the mammal families and on the faunas of mammals in the different continents, are reviewed. The mammal fauna of South America changed greatly in the Pliocene/Pleistocene, when the newly-complete Panama Isthmus allowed the North American fauna to enter the continent and replace most of the former South American mammal families. Marsupial, but not placental, mammals reached Australia via Antarctica before Australia became isolated, while rats and bats are the only placentals that dispersed naturally from Asia to Australia in the late Cenozoic. Little is known of the early history of the mammal fauna of India. A few mammal families reached Madagascar from Africa in the early Cenozoic over a chain of islands. Africa was isolated for much of the early Cenozoic, though some groups did succeed in entering from Europe. Before the climate cooled in the mid-Cenozoic, the mammal faunas of the Northern Hemisphere were much richer than those of today.

  20. Dinosaur tectonics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graversen, Ole; Milàn, Jesper; B. Loope, David


    to crustal scale tectonics associated with plate tectonics and foreland fold-thrust belts. A structural analysis of the dinosaur tracks shows the timing and direction of the forces exercised on the substrate by the animal's foot during the stride. Based on the structural analysis, we establish a scenario......A dinosaur trackway in the Middle Jurassic eolian Entrada Sandstone of southern Utah, USA, exposes three undertracks that we have modeled as isolated tectonic regimes showing the development of fold-thrust ramp systems induced by the dinosaur's feet. The faulted and folded sequence is comparable...... for foot movements and weight distribution in the feet. During the end of the weight-bearing phase of the stride, the weight of the animal was transferred to the front of the digits, creating a rotated disc below the foot that was bounded by an extensional fault at the front and a thrust ramp toward...

  1. Timing of Svecofennian crustal growth and collisional tectonics in Åland, SW Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl Ehlers


    Full Text Available In an effort to quantify the time parameter in the tectonomagmatic evolution of what has been called the Southern Svecofennian Arc Complex (SSAC of SW Finland, advanced radiometric dating techniques have here been applied to rock groups of key importance in that area. In this paper we report the results of 131 high-resolution ionmicroprobe spot analyses (SIMS of zircons, and 33 measurements using isotope dilution mass spectrometry (ID-TIMS on zircon, monazite and titanite, and employing both large-sample multi-grain as well as single-grain techniques. The Torsholma area of the Åland archipelago, situated between southern Finland and central Sweden, is a key structural area significant to resolve the time dimension in Svecofennian tectonics. There a collage of imbricated rock slabs was formed by tectonic shortening representing the culmination of large-scale penetrative Svecofennian deformation. Another structurally significant feature investigated is the South FinlandShear Zone (SFSZ that transects the southwest-Finnish archipelago and further east follows the southern coast of Finland. This shear zone forms the southern limit of the c. 1830 Ma Late Svecofennian Granite and Migmatite Zone (LSGM and also features deformations of a later stage when the considered region of Svecofennian crust was consolidated. The obtained age results and their tectonic analysis can be summarized as follows. The Enklinge volcanic sequence (1885±6 Ma is within error limits coeval with the intrusion of abundant early-kinematic gneissose granodiorites whose average age of 1884±5 Ma marks the formation of new crust in this region. Some of these geisses contain a significant amount of 2000–2080 Ma zircon. Although many Svecofennian granitoids are known to contain heterogeneous zircon populations, mainly formed c. 1890 Ma ago but also containing an inherited component, the Kökar gneiss is, to the best of our knowledge, the first case where inheritance from c. 2030

  2. Tectonic, human and climate signal over the last 4000 years in the Lake Amik record (southern Turkey) (United States)

    El Ouahabi, Meriam; Hubert-Ferrari, Aurélia; Vander Auwera, Jacqueline; Lepoint, Gilles; Karabacak, Volkan; Schmidt, Sabine; Fagel, Nathalie


    This study investigates the upper sediments infilling the central part of the Amik Basin in Southern Turkey. The Amik Basin is located in a tectonically active area: it is crossed by the Dead Sea Fault, a major neotectonic structure in the Middle East extending from the Red Sea in the South to the East Anatolian Fault Zone in the North. Continuous human occupation is attested since 6000-7000 BC in the Amik Basin. The study focuses on the sedimentary record of the Lake Amik occupying the central part of the Basin. Our objective is to constrain major paleo-environmental changes over the last 4000 years. The lake has been drained and progressively dried up since the mid-50s. The absence of water column during the summer season allows to collect lacustrine samples along a 5 meter depth trench with a sampling resolution of 1 to 2 cm. Diverse complementary methods were applied to characterize the sedimentary record: i.e. magnetic susceptibility, grain size, organic and inorganic matter by loss-of-ignition, mineralogy by X-ray diffraction and core scanner X-ray fluorescence (XRF) geochemistry. The age of the record is constrained combining radionuclide and radiocarbon datings. Structural disturbances observed in the lacustrine sediments record are linked with major historical earthquakes from the 6th to the 9th century AD due to the Hasipasa Fault rupture. In addition to the tectonic influence, the sedimentary record clearly shows two periods indicating strong soil erosion in the lake catchment: (1) the most recent erosion phase occurs over the Roman period to Present; (2) the oldest one would have occurred during the Late Bronze period. Such changes are most probably related to change in land use. In term of climate influences, the mineralogical and geochemical results allow to evidence variations in chemical weathering conditions in the watershed and lake water level fluctuations, respectively. The clay mineral assemblages attest for significant pedogenesis

  3. Teleseismic P and S Delay Times within Tectonically Active and Stable North America (United States)

    Lou, X.; van der Lee, S.


    We have measured teleseismic P and S relative delay times within 1) Stable North America (SNA) using waveforms from IRIS PASSCAL seismic arrays MOMA (Fischer et al., 1995), ABBA (Roecker and Beavan, 1995), Abitibi (Hearn and Mareschal, 1996), and FLED (Wysession and Fischer, 2001), and 2) Tectonically-active North America (TNA) using Earthscope's Transportable Array (TA). To study the contribution of mantle structure to these delays we subtracted delays predicted for topography and crustal structure, using CRUST 2.0 (Bassin et al., 2000). Preliminary analyses of delay times from earthquakes with Mw>=6.5 show surprising differences between the heterogeneity of the mantle beneath SNA and TNA. While the range of delay times is expectedly small for an intra-shield array such as Abitibi, the range of delay times from Proterozoic basement in the midwest to Paleozoic margin in New England is much larger and slightly exceeds that for the TA in TNA. This suggests that that the mantle of SNA is slightly more heterogeneous than TNA, despite there being relatively little surface expression of this heterogeneity. Patterns of P and S relative delay times measured in TNA correlate better with surface tectonics, suggesting that the mantle in TNA has a greater effect on the surface geology than in SNA. The central and southern Basin and Range are characterized by positive delays. As shown in previous studies, the Snake River Plain is also well delineated by positive delays. These delays exhibit a significant peak at station H17A in Yellowstone National Park. Teleseismic P and S waves arriving at stations in the Rocky Mountains are much faster, including in northern Idaho and western Washington, but not in western Oregon. For both SNA and TNA, the measured S and P delay times have a significant linear correlation, with S delays at approximately 3 times the P delays, which confirms the dominant effect of mantle temperature on mantle velocity structure. However, the slope of this

  4. Differentiating climatic- and tectonic-controlled lake margin in rift system: example of the Plio-Quaternary Nachukui Formation, Turkana depression, Kenya (United States)

    Alexis, Nutz; Mathieu, Schuster; Abdoulaye, Balde; Jean-Loup, Rubino


    offshore facies basinward. Such successions present more complex and higher-frequency prograding-retrograding sequences displaying superimposed periodicities ranging from 400 ka to 20 ka (i.e., Milankovitch's cycles). Type-1 facies association is interpreted to reflect tectonic-controlled lake margin when rift shoulder was characterized by high relief that directly fed large alluvial fan deltas. Type-2 facies association is interpreted to illustrate climatic-controlled lake margin developed during tectonic quiescence. At that time, coastal sedimentation prevailed recording paleolake fluctuations mainly related to astronomical forcings. Finally, in this contribution, an example of each lake margin type is presented. Facies are detailed, transect and depositional models are provided. We propose that these two types of facies association are keys to decipher tectonic and climatic forcings from other syn-rift successions in the geological record.

  5. Tectonics, climate and mountain building in the forearc of southern Peru recorded in the 10Be chronology of low-relief surface abandonment (United States)

    Hall, S. R.; Farber, D.; Audin, L.; Finkel, R. C.


    Regional low-relief surfaces have long been recognized as key features to understanding the response of landscapes to surface uplift. The canonical models of low-relief surface formation involve an extended period of tectonic quiescence during which, the fluvial systems bevel the landscape to a uniform elevation. This quiescent period is punctuated by a period(s) of surface uplift, which causes fluvial incision thereby abandoning the low-relief landscape. Over time, as rivers continue to incise in response to changes in sediment supply, river discharge, and base level fall, pieces of the relict low-relief landscape are left as abandoned remnants stranded above active channels. By determining the age of abandoned surfaces, previous workers have identified the onset of a change in the tectonic or climatic setting. One key assumption of this model is that the low-relief surfaces are truly abandoned with no current processes further acting on the surface. To improve our understanding of the underlying assumptions and problems of low-relief surface formation, we have used detailed mapping and absolute dating with cosmogenic 10Be to investigate surfaces in the hyperarid forearc region of southern Peru between ~14° and 18°S. Within this region, marine terraces and strath terraces reflect Plio-Pleistocene surface uplift, and together with the hyperarid climate, ongoing surface uplift provides a perfect natural laboratory to examine the processes affecting low-relief surface abandonment and preservation. With our new chronology we address: 1) the space and time correlations of surfaces, 2) incision rates of streams in response to base-level fall, and 3) surface erosion rates. Multiple surfaces have yielded 10Be surface abandonment ages that span >2 Ma - ~35 ka. While most of the surfaces we have dated are considerably less than 1 Ma, we have located two surfaces which are likely older than 2 Ma and constrain regional erosion rates to be level are known, we can estimate

  6. Pleistocene Arid and Wet Climatic Variability: Imprint of Glacial Climate, Tectonics and Oceanographic Events in the Sediments of the se Indian Ocean, Western Australia (United States)

    McHugh, C. M.; Castaneda, J.; Kominz, M. A.; Gallagher, S. J.; Gurnis, M.; Ishiwa, T.; Mamo, B. L.; Henderiks, J.; Christensen, B. A.; Groeneveld, J.; Yokoyama, Y.; Mustaque, S.; Iqbal, F.


    The interaction between the evolving tectonic configuration of the Indo Pacific region as a result of the northward migration of the Australian continent, and its collision with the Banda Arc began in the Late Miocene ( 8 Ma ago). This constriction played an important role in the diversion of the Indonesian Throughflow and initiation of the Leeuwin Current. These events coupled to Pleistocene glaciations left a significant imprint in the sediments offshore western Australia. The International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 356 drilled in shelf depths of the Carnarvon and Perth Basins recovering a thick section of Pleistocene sediment from Sites U1461 (440 m thick) and U1460 (306 m), respectively. Analyses of the lithology (logs, grain size), chemistry (X-ray elemental analyses) and an initial age model constructed from biostratigraphy and radiocarbon ages were interpreted within the framework of multichannel seismic profiles. Radiocarbon ages provide control for MIS 1-4, and the identification of glacial cycles is based on shipboard biostratigraphy best developed for Site U1460. Arid and high productivity signals are linked with glacial stages. Wet conditions are associated with river discharge, terrigenous sediments and linked with interglacial stages. Except for one very pronounced interval the productivity signal during interglacials is low. High productivity during glacial stages is related to upwelling linked to the southward flowing Leeuwin Current. Comparison of the northernmost (U1461) with southernmost (U1460) sites reveals a strong arid and wet climatic variability beginning in the Pleistocene. This variability is most pronounced in the late Pleistocene post 0.8-1.0 Ma and can be correlated with glacial-interglacial cycles, especially in the more humid southern Site that was closer to the Subantarctic Front and influenced by the Westerlies. In Site U1461 we recovered the 135m thick Gorgon slide. Its occurrence at 1 Ma coincides with a rapid tectonic

  7. A refined model of Quaternary valley downcutting emphasizing the interplay between tectonically triggered regressive erosion and climatic cyclicity (United States)

    Demoulin, A.; Beckers, A.; Rixhon, G.; Braucher, R.; Bourlès, D.; Siame, L.


    While climatic models of valley downcutting discuss the origin of terrace staircases in valleys of middle Europe within the frame of alternating cold and temperate periods of the Quaternary, other models, starting from a base level fall imposed by an initial tectonic signal, describe the response of the drainage network mainly as the propagation of an erosion wave from the place of base level fall (the margin of the uplifted region) toward the headwaters, the two types of model being rarely confronted. In the Ardennes (West Europe), cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al ages have recently been calculated for the abandonment of the Younger Main Terrace (YMT) level (Rixhon et al., 2011), a prominent feature at mid-height of the valleysides marking the starting point of the mid-Pleistocene phase of deep river incision in the massif. These ages show that the terrace has been abandoned diachronically as the result of a migrating erosion wave that started at 0.73 Ma in the Meuse catchment just north of the massif, soon entered the latter, and is still visible in the current long profiles of the Ardennian Ourthe tributaries as knickpoints disturbing their upper reaches. At first glance, these new findings are incompatible with the common belief that the terraces of the Ardennian rivers were generated by a climatically triggered stepwise general incision of the river profiles. However, several details of the terrace staircases (larger than average vertical spacing between the YMT and the next younger terrace, varying number of post-YMT terraces in trunk stream, tributaries and subtributaries) show that a combination of the climatic and tectonic models of river incision is able to satisfactorily account for all available data. The cosmogenic ages of the YMT also point out a particular behaviour of the migrating knickpoints, which apparently propagated on average more slowly in the main rivers than in the tributaries, in contradiction with the relation that makes knickpoint celerity

  8. Cosmic ray exposure dating of geo-morphic surface features using in situ-produced 10Be: tectonic and climatic implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siame, L.; Bellier, O.; Sebrier, M.; Braucher, R.; Bourles, D.L.


    The evolution of continental landforms is mainly modulated by the impact of climatic and tectonic processes. Because of their distinctive morphology and the periodicity of their deposition, climatically induced landforms such as alluvial fans or terraces are well suited to infer rates of tectonic and continental climatic processes. Within tectonically active regions, an important step consists in dating displaced geomorphic features to calculate slip rates on active faults. Dating is probably the most critical tool because it is generally much more simpler to measure deformation resulting from tectonic activity than it is to accurately date when that deformation occurred. Recent advances in analytical chemistry and nuclear physics (accelerator mass spectrometry) now allow quantitative abundance measurements of the extremely rare isotopes produced by the interaction of cosmic rays with surface rocks and soils, the so-called in situ-produced cosmogenic nuclides ( 3 He, 10 Be, 21 Ne, 26 Al, 36 Cl), and allow to directly date the duration that a landform has been exposed to cosmic rays at the Earth's surface (Lal, 1991; Nishiizumi et al., 1993; Cerling and Craig, 1994; Clark et al., 1995]. In fact, the abundance of these cosmo-nuclides is proportional to landscape stability and, under favorable circumstances, their abundance within surface rocks can be used as a proxy for erosion rate or exposure age. These cosmo-nuclides thus provide geomorphologists with the opportunity to constrain rates of landscape evolution. This paper presents a new approach that combines cosmic ray exposure (CRE) dating using in situ-produced 10 Be and geomorphic as well as structural analyse. This approach has been applied on two active strike-slip and reverse faults located in the Andean fore-land of western Argentina. These two case studies illustrate how CRE dating using in situ-produced 10 Be is particularly well suited for geomorphic studies that aim to estimate the respective control of

  9. Climatic and tectonic controls on late Quaternary reef growth in New Caledonia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cabioch, G.; Recy, J.; Jouannic, CH.; Turpin, L.


    Sedimentological and stratigraphic analysis of about 40 sub-surface cores drilled through the reefs of New Caledonia provides valuable data on the processes of reef recolonization following the past post glacial sea-level rise, and on the vertical tectonic behaviour of the island over the past 125,000 years. Holocene reefs in New Caledonia are not older than 8.5 ky. The fringing reef which developed during the last interglacial high sea-level 125 ky ago, is today uplifted and lies along some 30 km of coast in the area of 10 m, while the present-day barrier reef is deeply submerged (around - 15 to - 20 m). Near Hienghene (east coast), a double system of two notches is markedly deformed by a bulge, but is much more localized (3 km long) than in the Yate area, with a maximum uplift of 13 m of the upper double notch system (interpreted as having formed during the last interglacial event). Relics of the 125 ky fringing reef are emergent at various locations in the Bourail region (west coast). However, their altitudes are lower than that generally admitted (+ 6 m) for their construction at 125 ky, thus most probably reflecting a slight subsidence of the area. Elsewhere, the 125 ky fringing reef underlies the Holocene reef: in the SW of the island, in particular, the Holocene - Pleistocene unconformity is observed at - 6 m. In areas of higher subsidence rates, such as the NW or NE of the island, the 125 ky fringing reef may be more deeply buried. In that case, the Holocene reef rests directly on a metamorphic or sedimentary substratum. Within the barrier reef build-up itself, the 125 ky reef flat is overlain by a Holocene sequence, whose thickness depends on local subsidence rates. The observation of notches, raised becah-rocks or coral reefs (dated ar around 5,500 yr) uplifted up to 1 to 1,5 m above MLWS reflects the existence of a hydro-isostatic rebound. Traces of this rebound disappear in areas of high subsidence rate, illustrating the action of local tectonics

  10. Orbital, tectonic and oceanographic controls on Pliocene climate and atmospheric circulation in Arctic Norway (United States)

    Panitz, Sina; Salzmann, Ulrich; Risebrobakken, Bjørg; De Schepper, Stijn; Pound, Matthew J.; Haywood, Alan M.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Lunt, Daniel J.


    During the Pliocene Epoch, a stronger-than-present overturning circulation has been invoked to explain the enhanced warming in the Nordic Seas region in comparison to low to mid-latitude regions. While marine records are indicative of changes in the northward heat transport via the North Atlantic Current (NAC) during the Pliocene, the long-term terrestrial climate evolution and its driving mechanisms are poorly understood. We present the first two-million-year-long Pliocene pollen record for the Nordic Seas region from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 642B, reflecting vegetation and climate in Arctic Norway, to assess the influence of oceanographic and atmospheric controls on Pliocene climate evolution. The vegetation record reveals a long-term cooling trend in northern Norway, which might be linked to a general decline in atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the studied interval, and climate oscillations primarily controlled by precession (23 kyr), obliquity (54 kyr) and eccentricity (100 kyr) forcing. In addition, the record identifies four major shifts in Pliocene vegetation and climate mainly controlled by changes in northward heat transport via the NAC. Cool temperate (warmer than present) conditions prevailed between 5.03-4.30 Ma, 3.90-3.47 Ma and 3.29-3.16 Ma and boreal (similar to present) conditions predominated between 4.30-3.90 Ma, 3.47-3.29 and after 3.16 Ma. A distinct decline in sediment and pollen accumulation rates at c. 4.65 Ma is probably linked to changes in ocean currents, marine productivity and atmospheric circulation. Climate model simulations suggest that changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Early Pliocene could have affected atmospheric circulation in the Nordic Seas region, which would have affected the direction of pollen transport from Scandinavia to ODP Hole 642B.

  11. Tectonic-Climate Interactions in Action Orogenic Belts: Quantification of Dynamic Topography with SRTM data (United States)

    Burbank, Douglas W.; Oskin, Mike; Niemi, Nathan; Miller, Scott


    This project was undertaken to examine the approach to steady state in collisional mountain belts. Although the primary thrust of this grant was to look at larger collisional mountain belts, such as the Himalaya, the Tien Shan, and Southern Alps, we began by looking at smaller structures represented by growing and propagating folds. Like ranges that are evolving toward a topographic steady state, these folds undergo a series of morphologic changes as they are progressively uplifted and eroded. We wanted to document the nature of these changes and to try to discern some of the underlying controls on them. We initially focused on the Wheeler Ridge anticline in southern California. Subsequently, we progressed to looking at the topographic development and the effects of differential uplift and glaciation on the Kyrgyz Range in the northern Tien Shan. This range is unusual inasmuch as it is transformed along its length from a simple uplift with a largely preserved Mesozoic erosion surface arching across it to a highly dissected and heavily glaciated uplift in the region where uplift has been sustained at higher rates over longer intervals. In efforts to understand the distribution of erosion rates at 10(exp 3) - 10(exp 5) year time scales, cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) concentrations have been gaining increasingly widespread usage (Brown et al., 1995; Riebe et al., 2004; Riebe et al., 2001; Vance et al., 2003). Most studies to date, however, have been conducted in slowly eroding ranges. In rapidly eroding mountains where landslides deliver most of the sediments to the rivers, we hypothesized that CRN concentrations could be highly perturbed by the stochastic processes of landsliding. Therefore, we undertook the development of a numerical model that simulated the effects of both landsliding and grain-by-grain attrition within fluvial catchments. This modeling effort has shown the effects of catchment size and erosion rate on CRN concentrations and allows a prediction of

  12. TL/OSL ages from Salto Formation (Uruguay)tectonic, climatic and environmental considerations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ubilla, M.; Veroslavsky, G.


    TL/OSL ages from Salto Formation based on two sandy samples collected at Salto City and Route 3 (Boycua Creek) are provided: 986±100 ky (LVD-948) and 830±95 ky (LVD-949) respectively. Both support a Pleistocene age for Salto Formation, approximately late early/early middle Pleistocene. Neotectonic and climatic processes are also discussed [es

  13. Depositional Record of the Bagua Basin, Northern Peru: Implications for Climate and Tectonic Evolution of Tropical South America (United States)

    Moreno, F.; George, S. W. M.; Williams, L. A.; Horton, B. K.; Garzione, C. N.


    The Andes Mountains exert critical controls on the climate, hydrology, and biodiversity of South America. The Bagua Basin, a low elevation (400-600 m) intermontane basin in northern Peru, offers a unique opportunity to study the ecological, climatic, and structural evolution of the western topographic boundary of the Amazonian foreland. Situated between the Marañon fold-thrust belt of the Western Cordillera and basement block uplifts of the Eastern Cordillera, the Bagua region contains a protracted, semi-continuous record of Triassic through Pleistocene sedimentation. Whereas Triassic-Cretaceous marine deposits were potentially related to extension and regional thermal subsidence, a Paleocene-Eocene shift to shallow marine and fluvial systems marks the onset of foreland basin conditions. Oligocene-Miocene sedimentation corresponds to a braided-meandering fluvial system with exceptional development of paleosols. In this study, we use new detrital zircon U-Pb geochronologic and oxygen stable isotopic datasets to establish a chronology of pre-Andean and Andean processes within the Bagua Basin. Detrital zircon geochronology provides constraints on when the Western and Eastern cordilleras shed sediments into the basin. Syndepositional zircons within Eocene, Oligocene and Miocene strata provide key age control for a previously poorly constrained depositional chronology. Preliminary results suggest a dramatic provenance shift in which Paleocene deposits contain almost exclusively cratonic populations (500-1600 Ma) whereas Eocene deposits show a mix of syndepositional zircons from the magmatic arc, recycled Mesozoic zircons, and cratonic zircon populations. Oxygen stable isotopes (δ18O) of carbonate nodules from Neogene paleosols will help elucidate when the Eastern Cordillera became an orographic barrier intercepting moisture from the Amazon basin to the east. Together, these records will help uncover the history of tectonics and climate interaction in tropical South

  14. Climate and tectonic variability during Late Quaternary in western fringe of Tibetan Plateau: case study from Trans-Himalayan ranges of Ladakh, NW India (United States)

    Phartiyal, B.


    The climate system plays an important role in the geomorphological dynamics of a region. The cold, arid, high altitude, tectonically active areas of Ladakh (India) in Trans Himalaya, western Tibetan Plateau is none exception. Noticeable change in the landscape with a shift from fluvial to lacustrine regime at 10000 yrs BP forming big open valley lakes occupying the present day river valleys is attributed to the early Holocene northward advancement of the mean latitudinal position of the summer ITCZ causing wetter conditions in this dry area. The glaciers of the Ladakh range are almost depleted and the northern range glaciers show andrastic retreat in the Quaternary time. Lakes were studied using multi-proxies, to record centennial and decadal scale climatic variability. Spatial and temporal setting of Spituk palaeolake (12600-240 cal yrs BP) along Indus River, was analyzed using multi proxies. The lake that extended for 40-50 km covering an area of 106 km2, was formed after Older Dryas as a result of river blockage by precipitation induced debris flow and seismicity. Two lake phases between 12600-9000 and 5500-3200 cal yrs BP show stable lake conditions and have synchronous relationship between high variation in monsoon intensity, high δ18O values in the Guliya core, rise in temperature and high solar insolation. High magnetic susceptibility and clay content along with diversified diatom and other freshwater algae and land derived organic matter are indicative of fresh water supply leading to high lake level from 4700 yr BP onwards in the present pro-glacial lakes studied. The multi-proxy data provides evidence of much higher and stable lake level during 3700 yr BP and 3000 yr BP onwards due to high water supply in these lake. It is in contrast to the records of weak ISM conditions and low lake level in rest of the part of Indian peninsula during the period. The study also suggests strong western disturbance activity during 4800-3000 yr BP leading to high lake

  15. Time varying arctic climate change amplification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chylek, Petr [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Dubey, Manvendra K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Lesins, Glen [DALLHOUSIE U; Wang, Muyin [NOAA/JISAO


    During the past 130 years the global mean surface air temperature has risen by about 0.75 K. Due to feedbacks -- including the snow/ice albedo feedback -- the warming in the Arctic is expected to proceed at a faster rate than the global average. Climate model simulations suggest that this Arctic amplification produces warming that is two to three times larger than the global mean. Understanding the Arctic amplification is essential for projections of future Arctic climate including sea ice extent and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. We use the temperature records from the Arctic stations to show that (a) the Arctic amplification is larger at latitudes above 700 N compared to those within 64-70oN belt, and that, surprisingly; (b) the ratio of the Arctic to global rate of temperature change is not constant but varies on the decadal timescale. This time dependence will affect future projections of climate changes in the Arctic.

  16. Modelling the Effects of Sea-level, Climate Change, Geology, and Tectonism on the Morphology of the Amazon River Valley and its Floodplain (United States)

    Aalto, R. E.; Cremon, E.; Dunne, T.


    How continental-scale rivers respond to climate, geology, and sea level change is not well represented in morphodynamic models. Large rivers respond to influences less apparent in the form and deposits of smaller streams, as the huge scales require long time periods for changes in form and behavior. Tectonic deformation and excavation of resistant deposits can affect low gradient continental-scale rivers, thereby changing flow pathways, channel slope and sinuosity, along-stream patterns of sediment transport capacity, channel patterns, floodplain construction, and valley topography. Nowhere are such scales of morphodynamic response grander than the Amazon River, as described in papers by L.A.K. Mertes. Field-based understanding has improved over the intervening decades, but mechanistic models are needed to simulate and synthesize key morphodynamic components relevant to the construction of large river valleys, with a focus on the Amazon. The Landscape-Linked Environmental Model (LLEM) utilizes novel massively parallel computer architectures to simulate multiple-direction flow, sediment transport, deposition, and incision for exceptionally large (30-80 million nodes per compute unit) lowland dispersal systems. LLEM represents key fluvial processes such as bed and bar deposition, lateral and vertical erosion/incision, levee and floodplain construction, floodplain hydrology, `badlands dissection' of weak sedimentary deposits during falling sea level, tectonic and glacial-isostatic deformation, and provides a 3D record of created stratigraphy and underlying bedrock. We used LLEM to simulate the development of the main valley of the Amazon over the last million years, exploring the propagation of incision waves and system dissection during glacial lowstands, followed by rapid valley filling and extreme lateral mobility of channels during interglacials. We present metrics, videos, and 3D fly-throughs characterizing how system development responds to key assumptions

  17. The Island Arcs as a Major Source of Mantellic Sr to the Ocean: Tectonic Control over Seawater Chemistry and Climate (United States)

    Louvat, P.; Allegre, C. J.; Meynadier, L.


    The evolution of 87Sr/86Sr in the Cenozoic ocean has been the subject of famous and vivid controversies between the BLAG model1 and Raymo's one2. No clear winner! Recently the question has been worsened because recent estimates of the hydrothermal flux at ridge crest3, 4, 5 and of the low-temperature oceanic crust weathering flux6 have shown that these fluxes are not enough to balance the continental radiogenic input to give 0.70917 (present-day seawater 87Sr/86Sr). We have re-examined this problem using both Sr and Nd isotopic budgets. Seawater 143Nd/144Nd isotopic ratio varies from one ocean to another as a consequence of its short residence time. For each ocean we can calculate the Nd contributions from continental (rivers) and mantellic sources. Since ridge crests cannot be the mantle-like source for Nd, this source is identified as the island arc and OIB weathering, in agreement with the observation by Goldstein and Hemming7. This approach leads us to examine the possibility of the same island arc origin for the missing mantle-like seawater Sr. The classical approach to the budget of water entering the ocean is to consider the river water fluxes as established by hydrological survey statistics. But these fluxes are too small, as they do not include the underground water flows, which are particularly important for volcanic terrains8. A budget calculation based on mean surface area, mean water fluxes and mean Sr concentrations in rivers and springs demonstrates island arc and OIB weathering is a sufficient source of mantellic Sr to the ocean to match the seawater 87Sr/86Sr budget. This result has a fundamental consequence on the explanation of the seawater 87Sr/86Sr evolution during the Cenozoic. Indeed, when a continental collision occurs a large portion of island arcs is eliminated. Thus the increase in the contribution of radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr from continental weathering and the decrease of the mantle contribution via island arc weathering are tectonically and

  18. Effects of tectonics and large scale climatic changes on the evolutionary history of Hyalomma ticks. (United States)

    Sands, Arthur F; Apanaskevich, Dmitry A; Matthee, Sonja; Horak, Ivan G; Harrison, Alan; Karim, Shahid; Mohammad, Mohammad K; Mumcuoglu, Kosta Y; Rajakaruna, Rupika S; Santos-Silva, Maria M; Matthee, Conrad A


    -Diva, we also propose that the closure of the Tethyan seaway allowed for the genus to first enter Africa approximately 17.73Mya. In concert, our data supports the notion that tectonic events and large scale global changes in the environment contributed significantly to produce the rich species diversity currently found in the genus Hyalomma. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Tectonic and climatic controls on provenance changes of fine-grained dust on the Chinese Loess Plateau since the late Oligocene (United States)

    Yan, Yan; Ma, Long; Sun, Youbin


    Provenance variations of Late Cenozoic aeolian deposits on the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) were closely associated with regional tectonic activity and climatic change. Previous studies, however, have not reached a consensus regarding the nature and origin of past variations in source. This study presents the results of oxygen isotope (δ18O) analyses of fine-grained quartz (dust sources and previous provenance studies of the same aeolian sequences, we identify three significant composition changes of the dust source system at around 20, 12, and 2.6 Ma. The dust source system was also rather unstable at 25-20, 12-7 and 1.2-0 Ma, while three stable stages occurred at 20-12, 7-2.6, and 2.6-1.2 Ma. The correlation between the provenance changes and paleoclimatic and tectonic evidence suggests that both tectonic and climatic factors were important in driving the observed stepwise provenance changes. However, the changes were mainly constrained by Tibetan Plateau uplift prior to the Quaternary, and by global climate change thereafter.

  20. Palaeoenvironmental evolution of the Barbate-Trafalgar coast (Cadiz) during the last ˜ 140 ka: Climate, sea-level interactions and tectonics (United States)

    Zazo, Cari; Mercier, Norbert; Lario, Javier; Roquero, Elvira; Goy, José-Luis; Silva, Pablo G.; Cabero, Ana; Borja, Francisco; Dabrio, Cristino J.; Bardají, Teresa; Soler, Vicente; García-Blázquez, Ana; Luque, Luis de


    Coastal response to tectonic activity and eustatic-climate interactions during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene has been analyzed along the Barbate-Trafalgar shoreline. The study area consists of an uplifted platform (La Breña, ˜ 140 m) bounded by two major NW-SE faults that have created two subsiding areas: Meca in the west and Barbate in the east. The areas of subsidence have favoured the accumulation of a thick morphosedimentary sequence consisting of (in ascending stratigraphic order) beach, alluvial, and aeolian deposits, which repeatedly underwent soil-forming processes. This study outlines the palaeogeographical evolution of the area over the last ˜ 140 ka, as deduced from geomorphological mapping associated with a range of laboratory analyses (mineralogical, geochemical, magnetic susceptibility, and soil micromorphology analyses), optically stimulated luminescence (OSL dating), and existing U-Th dating. Special attention has been paid to the alluvial unit, made up of vertically stacked sandy sheet-flood deposits with interbedded red paleosols. OSL ages suggest that sediment supply to the alluvial/coastal environments took place mainly at the end of the two most recent glacial periods (Oxygen Isotopic Stage [OIS] 6 and OIS 3/OIS 2) and during the last interglacial period (end of OIS 5). This means that although alluvial sedimentation took place at times of relatively high sea level, these were not times of highstand because very high sea levels (like the present) allow marine erosion of the distal part of the fans (fan toes), cutting cliffed coasts. The repeated occurrence of paleosols in the alluvial sequence seems to indicate a recurrence of environmental changes that modified the feedback relationships between the catchment and the coastal areas. These changes are recorded in repeated oscillations of soil parameters, and are revealed from the results of geochemical and environmental magnetism analyses. We associate repeated pedogenesis and alluvial

  1. Dinosaur tectonics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graversen, Ole; Milàn, Jesper; B. Loope, David


    for foot movements and weight distribution in the feet. During the end of the weight-bearing phase of the stride, the weight of the animal was transferred to the front of the digits, creating a rotated disc below the foot that was bounded by an extensional fault at the front and a thrust ramp toward...... of the undertrack. The total length of the tectonic disturbance created by the dinosaur is up to three times that of the original footprint. Early, near-surface cementation gave the substrate the rheological properties necessary for development of the observed structures....

  2. Time variability in Cenozoic reconstructions of mantle heat flow: plate tectonic cycles and implications for Earth's thermal evolution. (United States)

    Loyd, S J; Becker, T W; Conrad, C P; Lithgow-Bertelloni, C; Corsetti, F A


    The thermal evolution of Earth is governed by the rate of secular cooling and the amount of radiogenic heating. If mantle heat sources are known, surface heat flow at different times may be used to deduce the efficiency of convective cooling and ultimately the temporal character of plate tectonics. We estimate global heat flow from 65 Ma to the present using seafloor age reconstructions and a modified half-space cooling model, and we find that heat flow has decreased by approximately 0.15% every million years during the Cenozoic. By examining geometric trends in plate reconstructions since 120 Ma, we show that the reduction in heat flow is due to a decrease in the area of ridge-proximal oceanic crust. Even accounting for uncertainties in plate reconstructions, the rate of heat flow decrease is an order of magnitude faster than estimates based on smooth, parameterized cooling models. This implies that heat flow experiences short-term fluctuations associated with plate tectonic cyclicity. Continental separation does not appear to directly control convective wavelengths, but rather indirectly affects how oceanic plate systems adjust to accommodate global heat transport. Given that today's heat flow may be unusually low, secular cooling rates estimated from present-day values will tend to underestimate the average cooling rate. Thus, a mechanism that causes less efficient tectonic heat transport at higher temperatures may be required to prevent an unreasonably hot mantle in the recent past.

  3. The revised tectonic history of Tharsis (United States)

    Bouley, Sylvain; Baratoux, David; Paulien, Nicolas; Missenard, Yves; Saint-Bézar, Bertrand


    Constraining the timing of the emplacement of the volcano-tectonic province of Tharsis is critical to understanding the evolution of mantle, surface environment and climate of Mars. The growth of Tharsis had exerted stresses on the lithosphere, which were responsible for tectonic deformation, previously mapped as radial or concentric faults. Insights into the emplacement history of Tharsis may be gained from an analysis of the characteristics and ages of these tectonic features. The number, total length, linear density of extensional or compressional faults in the Tharsis region and deformation rates are reported for each of the following 6 stages: Early and Middle Noachian (stage 1); Late Noachian (stage 2); Early Hesperian (stage 3); Late Hesperian (stage 4), Early Amazonian (stage 5) and Middle Amazonian to Late Amazonian (stage 6). 8571 Tharsis-related tectonic features (radial or concentric to the center of Tharsis) were assigned to one of these periods of time based on their relationship with stratigraphic units defined in the most recent geological map. Intense faulting at Tempe Terra, Claritas and Coracis Fossae and Thaumasia Planum confirms that tectonic deformation started during the Noachian. However, we report a peak in both compressive and extensive rates of deformation during the Early Hesperian whereas the quantitative indicators for compressional and extensional tectonics vary within less than one order of magnitude from the Late Noachian to the Late Hesperian. These observations indicate a protracted growth of Tharsis during the first quarter of Mars evolution and declining from 3 Gyrs ago.

  4. Performative Tectonics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holst, Malene Kirstine; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Mullins, Michael


    This paper studies two digital generative tools in terms of Performative Tectonics. Performative Tectonics is a term developed in the paper, which links the contemporary development of digital tools to the tectonic tradition of architecture. Within the theoretical framework of this definition......, the paper presents case studies of the structural optimisation software eifForm, and the parametric modelling software Generative-Components....


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. V. Mints


    Full Text Available Paradoxically, the lists of “proxies” of both plate- and plume-related settings are devoid of even a mention of the high-grade metamorphic rocks (granulite, amphibolite and high-temperature eclogite facies. However, the granulite-gneiss belts and areas which contain these rocks, have a regional distribution in both the Precambrian and the Phanerozoic records. The origin and evolution of the granulite-gneiss belts correspond to the activity of plumes expressed in vigorous heating of the continental crust; intraplate magmatism; formation of rift depressions filled with sediments, juvenile lavas, and pyroclastic flow deposits; and metamorphism of lower and middle crustal complexes under conditions of granulite and high-temperature amphibolite facies that spreads over the fill of rift depressions also. Granulite-gneiss complexes of the East European Craton form one of the main components of the large oval intracontinental tectonic terranes of regional or continental rank. Inclusion of the granulite-gneiss complexes from Eastern Europe, North and South America, Africa, India, China and Australia in discussion of the problem indicated in the title to this paper, suggests consideration of a significant change in existing views on the relations between the plate- and plume-tectonic processes in geological history, as well as in supercontinent assembly and decay. The East European and North American cratons are fragments of the long-lived supercontinent Lauroscandia. After its appearance at ~2.8 Ga, the crust of this supercontinent evolved under the influence of the sequence of powerful mantle plumes (superplumes up to ~0.85 Ga. During this time Lauroscandia was subjected to rifting, partial breakup and the following reconstruction of the continent. The processes of plate-tectonic type (rifting with the transition to spreading and closing of the short-lived ocean with subduction within Lauroscandia were controlled by the superplumes. Revision of the

  6. New Evidence For A Late Miocene Onset Of The Amazon River Following Andean Tectonics And Quaternary Climate Change (United States)

    Hoorn, M. C.; Bogota-Angel, G.; Romero-Baez, M.; Lammertsma, E.; Flantua, S. G. A.; Dantas, E. L.; Dino, R.; do Carmo, D.; Chemale, F., Jr.


    The Amazon River influenced biotic evolution on land and at sea, but its onset and development are still debated. Terrestrial sedimentary records are sparse, far apart, and do not present a continuous stratigraphy and thus greatly complicate the reconstruction of the history of this river system. At sea the stratigraphic record is better known thanks to hydrocarbon exploration efforts, but these data are not in the public domain. Renewed exploration in the Amazon submarine fan (Brazilian Equatorial Margin) has provided novel data and materials from wells drilled along the slope of the Amazon submarine fan, that are now partially available for scientific research. Here we report on the results of a geochemical and palynological study of `Well 2' based on which we determined the age and provenance of early Miocene to Pleistocene sediments. The palynological data were also used to reconstruct past biomes on land, which ranged from mangrove and lowland forest to alpine vegetation. A distinct change in provenance was observed between 9.4 Ma and 9 Ma, which represented a change from Amazonian to Andean sediment source. This signal is replicated in the palynological record, which shows a shift from lowland to high-mountain taxa. Furthermore, we observed a very large increase of grass pollen from the Pliocene onwards with a further rise in the Pleistocene. These changes coincide with a rise in sedimentation rates. We interpret these results as following: a) the arrival of Andean sediments is related to the onset of the transcontinental river, b) the two-step rise of grass pollen and manifold increase in sediment discharge are related to Quaternary climatic change. These results agree with earlier and recent findings on the Ceara Rise and firmly place the birth of this river in the late Miocene. This study exemplifies the continental scale of tectonic changes on fluvial environments and biota across a W-E transect of South America. The study of this well is continued and we

  7. Early and Middle Jurassic climate changes: implications for palaeoceanography and tectonics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korte, Christoph; Hesselbo, Stephen; Ullmann, Clemens Vinzenz


    The occurrence of ‘ice ages’ within the overall warm Jurassic Period has been the subject of much discussion and not a little controversy. Recently it has been suggested on the basis of occurrence of glendonites in circum-Arctic basins that cold episodes took place in the Jurassic (Price, 1999......; Rogov and Zakharov, 2010). Here we present new high-resolution oxygen isotope datasets from marine calcitic fossils of different European basins that indicate strong temperature fluctuations during the Pliensbachian-Bajocian time span. The already reported cold Late Pliensbachian episode with at least...... three pronounced oxygen isotope ‘Ice Age’ cycles, and the subsequent well known Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic ‘supergreenhouse’ Event is followed by very warm seawater temperatures in the late Toarcian. Moreover, a very pronounced and effective cooling occurred during the latest Toarcian and early Aalenian...

  8. Coastal Lakes in South-Central Chile (38°S) - Archives of Holocene Climate and Fore-arc Tectonics (United States)

    Blumberg, S.; Arz, H. W.; Echtler, H. P.; Lamy, F.; Haug, G. H.; Oncken, O.


    The present study is based on sediment cores obtained from the two coastal lakes Lago Lanalhue and Lago Lleu Lleu, which are located on the western slopes of the Chilean Coastal Cordillera at approximately 38°S. Due to their near-shore location outside the influence of the Andean glaciation and volcanic activity, the lake sediments provide clear signals of continental rainfall changes that can be directly linked to offshore marine records. Both lakes are of tectonic origin and were cut off from the Pacific Ocean by raised marine terraces forming natural dams. For that reason their sediments do not only contain paleoclimatic information but also information about fore-arc tectonics and, in particular, about the regional uplift history. Sediment analyses so far include the lithological description, digital imaging, magnetic susceptibility measurements, X-ray fluorescence (partly high-resolution) scanning, carbon content detection and radiocarbon dating. Investigated piston cores of both lakes are extending back to the Late Pleistocene/Early Holocene and are showing mean sedimentation rates of 1.0 - 1.5 mm/a. First results of magnetic susceptibility measurements and XRF-scanning demonstrate a striking shift of the respective values at around 8000 yr BP in both lakes, which documents the transition from a marine to a lacustrine facies. Knowing the Holocene sea-level evolution and the present height of lake-levels we are able to calculate the mean regional uplift rate during the last 8000 yr (4.3 mm/yr). In the lacustrine part of the records we find higher terrigenous content during the Late Holocene (4300 to present) compared to the Middle Holocene (7600 - 4300 yr BP) consistent with generally more humid conditions in the late Holocene as known from other terrestrial and marine records in the region. On centennial time-scales a pronounced variability in elemental concentrations and magnetic suceptibility shows significant changes in the terrigenous sediment input to

  9. Fluvial responses to tectonics and climate change during the Late Weichselian in the eastern part of the Pannonian Basin (Hungary) (United States)

    Nádor, Annamária; Thamó-Bozsó, Edit; Magyari, Árpád; Babinszki, Edit


    changes of the Weichselian Late Pleniglacial-Late Glacial period. Much of the sand from the meandering zones was deposited during the Bølling-Allerød and Ságvár-Lascaux interstadials, whereas some dated sand units from the braided zone represent the Older and Younger Dryas. The error ranges of OSL dates, which often exceed the duration of Weichselian substages and subdivisions, prevented an unambiguous correlation of the studied sections with the millennial-scale climate changes of the last 25 ky. Meandering and braided river activity coexisted under different climate conditions, whereas locations of the main channel belts are related to subsidence anomalies. The results of our study thus clearly indicate that tectonics was the primary control on river development.

  10. Investigating the landscape of Arroyo Seco—Decoding the past—A teaching guide to climate-controlled landscape evolution in a tectonically active region (United States)

    Taylor, Emily M.; Sweetkind, Donald S.; Havens, Jeremy C.


    IntroductionArroyo Seco is a river that flows eastward out of the Santa Lucia Range in Monterey County, California. The Santa Lucia Range is considered part of the central California Coast Range. Arroyo Seco flows out of the Santa Lucia Range into the Salinas River valley, near the town of Greenfield, where it joins the Salinas River. The Salinas River flows north into Monterey Bay about 40 miles from where it merges with Arroyo Seco. In the mountain range, Arroyo Seco has cut or eroded a broad and deep valley. This valley preserves a geologic story in the landscape that is influenced by both fault-controlled mountain building (tectonics) and sea level fluctuations (regional climate).Broad flat surfaces called river terraces, once eroded by Arroyo Seco, can be observed along the modern drainage. In the valley, terraces are also preserved like climbing stairs up to 1,800 feet above Arroyo Seco today. These terraces mark where Arroyo Seco once flowed.The terraces were formed by the river because no matter how high they are, the terraces are covered by gravel deposits exactly like those that can be observed in the river today. The Santa Lucia Range, Arroyo Seco, and the Salinas River valley must have looked very different when the highest and oldest terraces were forming. The Santa Lucia Range may have been lower, the Arroyo Seco may have been steeper and wider, and the Salinas River valley may have been much smaller.Arroyo Seco, like all rivers, is always changing. Some-times rivers flow very straight, and sometimes they are curvy. Sometimes rivers are cutting down or eroding the landscape, and sometimes they are not eroding but depositing material. Sometimes rivers are neither eroding nor transporting material. The influences that change the behavior of Arroyo Seco are mountain uplift caused by fault moment and sea level changes driven by regional climate change. When a stream is affected by one or both of these influences, the stream accommodates the change by

  11. Petrogenesis of the NE Gondwanan uppermost Ediacaran-Lower Cretaceous siliciclastic sequence of Jordan: Provenance, tectonic, and climatic implications (United States)

    Amireh, Belal S.


    Detrital framework modes of the NE Gondwanan uppermost Ediacaran-Lower Cretaceous siliciclastic sequence of Jordan are determined employing the routine polarized light microscope. The lower part of this sequence constitutes a segment of the vast lower Paleozoic siliciclastic sheet flanking the northern Gondwana margin that was deposited over a regional unconformity truncating the outskirts of the East African orogen in the aftermath of the Neoproterozoic amalgamation of Gondwana. The research aims to evaluate the factors governing the detrital light mineral composition of this sandstone. The provenance terranes of the Arabian craton controlled by plate tectonics appear to be the primary factor in most of the formations, which could be either directly inferred employing Dickinson's compositional triangles or implied utilizing the petrographic data achieved and the available tectonic and geological data. The Arabian-Nubian Shield constitutes invariably the craton interior or the transitional provenance terrane within the NE Gondwana continental block that consistently supplied sandy detritus through northward-flowing braided rivers to all the lower Paleozoic formations. On the other hand, the Lower Cretaceous Series received siliciclastic debris, through braided-meandering rivers having same northward dispersal direction, additionally from the lower Paleozoic and lower-middle Mesozoic platform strata in the Arabian Craton. The formations making about 50% of the siliciclastic sequence represent a success for Dickinson's plate tectonics-provenance approach in attributing the detrital framework components primarily to the plate tectonic setting of the provenance terranes. However, even under this success, the varying effects of the other secondary sedimentological and paleoclimatological factors are important and could be crucial. The inapplicability of this approach to infer the appropriate provenance terranes of the remaining formations could be ascribed either to the

  12. Climate change and tectonic activity during the early Pliocene Warm Period from the ostracod record at Lake Qinghai, northeastern Tibetan Plateau (United States)

    Lu, Fengyan; An, Zhisheng; Chang, Hong; Dodson, John; Qiang, Xiaoke; Yan, Hong; Dong, Jibao; Song, Yougui; Fu, Chaofeng; Li, Xiangzhong


    The Early Pliocene Warm Period (EPWP, 5-3 Ma) is sometimes thought to be a useful analogue for a future warmer world, and thus the boundary conditions and drivers of climate in the EPWP may provide valuable lessons for understanding how a future warmer world might unfold. Lake Qinghai is located on the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and is affected by both Monsoon climate and Westerlies circulation. It is sensitive to the climate drivers of these systems. Its sediments, accumulated over the Cenozoic period, are a rich source of information for climate, tectonics and environmental changes of the period. We present a high-resolution ostracod record from a Lake Qinghai sediment core with a record of the period 5.10-2.60 Ma, thus covering the EPWP. Ostracods appear at 4.63 Ma and are most abundant until 3.58 Ma, while a body of water was present at the core site. This suggests a phase of humid climate and an intensified Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM), which is consistent with a warmer and wetter climate in the early Pliocene. Within this period the ostracod record shows some variabilities in lake level with deeper periods suggesting more intense ASM compared to those with shallower water. The disappearance of ostracods at 3.58 Ma may provide evidence for the uplift of Qinghai Nanshan (south of Qinghai Lake) since this is when the ASM intensified.

  13. Palaeomagnetic Constrains on the Timing and the Geographical Distribution of Tectonic Rotations in the Betic Chain, Southern Spain. A Review (United States)

    Osete, M. L.; Villalain, J. J.; Pavon-Carrasco, F. J.; Palencia, A.


    The Betic Cordillera is the northern branch of the Betic-Rifean orogen, the westernmost segment of the Mediterranean Alpine orogenic system. Several palaeomagnetic studies have enhanced the important role that block rotations about vertical axes have played in the tectonic evolution of the region. In this work we present a review of published palaeomagnetic data. According with the rotational deformation, the Betics are divided into the central-western area and the eastern Betics. A sequence of rotations for the two regions is also proposed. In central and western Subbetics almost constant clockwise rotations of about 60 are documented in Jurassic limestones. The existence of a pervasive remagnetization of Jurassic limestones, which was coeval with the folding of the studied units and dated as post-Palaeogene, constrains the timing of tectonic rotations in western Subbetics. New palaeomagnetic data from Neogene sedimentary sequences in central Betics indicate that palaeomagnetic clockwise rotations continued after late Miocene. A similar pattern of 40 CW rotations occurred after 20-17 Ma was obtained from the study of the Ronda-Malaga peridotites (western Internal Betics). In eastern Subbetics a more heterogeneous pattern, including very high CW rotations has been observed. But recent rotational deformation in the Internal part of eastern Betics is CCW and related to the left-lateral strike-slip fault systems. Proposed kinematics models for the Betics are discussed under the light of the present available palaeomagnetic information.

  14. GPS Imaging suggests links between climate, magmatism, seismicity, and tectonics in the Sierra Nevada-Long Valley Caldera-Walker Lane system, western United States (United States)

    Hammond, W. C.; Blewitt, G.; Kreemer, C.; Smith, K.


    The Walker Lane is a region of complex active crustal transtension in the western Great Basin of the western United States, accommodating about 20% of the 50 mm/yr relative motion between the Pacific and North American plates. The Long Valley caldera lies in the central Walker Lane in eastern California, adjacent to the eastern boundary of the Sierra Nevada/Great Valley microplate, and experiences intermittent inflation, uplift, and volcanic unrest from the magma chamber that resides at middle crustal depths. Normal and transform faults accommodating regional tectonic transtension pass by and through the caldera, complicating the interpretation of the GPS-measured strain rate field, estimates of fault slip rates, and seismic hazard. Several dozen continuously recording GPS stations measure strain and uplift in the area with mm precision. They observe that the most recent episode of uplift at Long Valley began in mid-2011, continuing until late 2016, raising the surface by 100 mm in 6 years. The timing of the initiation of uplift coincides with the beginning of severe drought in California. Furthermore, the timing of a recent pause in uplift coincides with the very wet 2016-2017 winter, which saw approximately double normal snow pack. In prior studies, we showed that the timing of changes in geodetically measured uplift rate of the Sierra Nevada coincides with the timing of drought conditions in California, suggesting a link between hydrological loading and Sierra Nevada elevation. Here we take the analysis three steps further to show that changes in Sierra Nevada uplift rate coincide in time with 1) enhanced inflation at the Long Valley caldera, 2) shifts in the patterns and rates of horizontal tensor strain rate, and 3) seismicity patterns in the central Walker Lane. We use GPS solutions from the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory and the new GPS Imaging technique to produce robust animations of the time variable strain and uplift fields. The goals of this work are to

  15. Looking for very low tectonic deformation in GNSS time series impacted by strong hydrological signal in the Okavango Delta, Botswana (United States)

    Pastier, Anne-Morwenn; Dauteuil, Olivier; Murray-Hudson, Michael; Makati, Kaelo; Moreau, Frédérique; Crave, Alain; Longuevergne, Laurent; Walpersdorf, Andrea


    Located in northern Botswana, the Okavango Delta is a vast wetland, fed from the Angolan highlands and constrained by a half-graben in the Kalahari depression. Since the 70's, the Okavango graben is usually considered as the terminus of the East African Rift System. But a recent geodetic study showed there has been no extension on the tectonic structure over the past 5 years, and recent geophysical studies began to call this hypothesis into question. The deformation in the area could instead be related to far-field deformation accommodation due to the motion of the Kalahari craton relative to the rest of the Nubian plate and to the opening of the Rift Valley. Getting to the vertical deformation isn't trivial. The GNSS time series show a strong annual deformation of the ground surface (3 cm of amplitude). On the vertical component, this periodic signal is so strong that it hides the tectonic long-term deformation, while this information would give a crucial insight on the geodynamic process at play. This periodic signal is related to the seasonal loading of water due to the rainy season. This hypothesis is corroborated by the modeling of the surface deformation based on the GRACE satellites data, interpreted as the variation of groundwater amount. In the Okavango Delta, the peak of water level isn't paced with the local precipitations, but is driven by a flood pulse coming from the Angolan Highlands. The migration of this massive water body isn't visible at first order in GRACE data. Yet, local precipitations are supposed to undergo too much evapotranspiration to be significant in the hydrological balance. Thus this later water body isn't supposed to produce a mass anomaly in GRACE time series. This paradox could highlight a relationship not yet defined between groundwater and local rainfall. The wide spatial resolution of GRACE data (about 300 km) doesn't allow a modeling accurate enough to give access to the slow tectonic deformation, nor to determine the

  16. Potential links between continental rifting, CO2 degassing and climate change through time (United States)

    Brune, Sascha; Williams, Simon E.; Müller, R. Dietmar


    The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is a key influence on Earth's climate. Today, significant quantities of CO2 are emitted at continental rifts, suggesting that the spatial and temporal extent of rift systems may have influenced deep carbon fluxes and thus climate change throughout geological time. Here we test this hypothesis by conducting a worldwide census of continental rift lengths over the last 200 million years. We estimate tectonic CO2 release rates through time and show that along the extensive Mesozoic and Cenozoic rift systems, rift-related CO2 degassing rates reached more than 300% of present-day values. Using a numerical carbon cycle model, we find that two prominent periods of enhanced rifting 160 to 100 million years ago and after 55 million years ago coincided with greenhouse climate episodes, during which atmospheric CO2 concentrations were more than three times higher than today. We therefore propose that continental fragmentation and long-term climate change could plausibly be linked via massive CO2 degassing in rift systems.

  17. Digital Tectonics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Karl; Borup, Ruben; Søndergaard, Asbjørn


    Digital Tectonics treats the architectonical possibilities in digital generation of form and production. The publication is the first volume of a series, in which aspects of the strategic focus areas of the Aarhus School of Architecture will be disseminated.......Digital Tectonics treats the architectonical possibilities in digital generation of form and production. The publication is the first volume of a series, in which aspects of the strategic focus areas of the Aarhus School of Architecture will be disseminated....

  18. Discriminating Between Tectonic and Climatic Controls on Early Hominin Paleoenvironments From the Koobi Fora Region, Northeastern Turkana Basin, Kenya: Part II (United States)

    Quinn, R. L.; Lepre, C. J.


    Global climate is often elected as a catalyst for environmental change and used to characterize selective pressures acting on Plio-Pleistocene African hominins. Vrba's Habitat Theory (1992) and Pott's Variability Selection (1998) credit mammalian evolutionary pattern and process to global climate regulated by orbital forcing. Feibel (1999: 276) argues the need for a middle ground, tethering the "global-scale climatic phenomena" to "environmental change, habitat shift, and biotic evolution" and offers the basin as a scale for analysis. Feibel suggests that all basins are not created equal, and will respond to climate change with different sensitivities and thresholds. As such, interpretations of climate proxies must account for differences in basin size, climatic regime(s), topography, geology, and water availability when drawing relationships to global phenomena. Here we examine pedogenic carbonate isotopes (d13C, d18O) from the Plio-Pleistocene Koobi Fora Region to elucidate the differential influences of climate, tectonics, and deposition on ecological factors of early hominin evolution in the northeastern Turkana Basin of Kenya. One of the richest Plio-Pleistocene fossil localities in Africa, Koobi Fora has served as a setting for hominin evolution between 4.0 and 1.0 Ma. Numerous paleosols, stratigraphically controlled by tuffaceous marker beds, are preserved in the Plio-Pleistocene sediments of the Koobi Fora Formation. Cerling and others (1988) and Wynn (2000) conducted isotopic studies of pedogenic carbonates from the Plio-Pleistocene Omo Group deposits of the Turkana Basin. With these data Wynn (2004) demonstrates stepwise d13C shifts over the last 4.0 Ma, with marked events at 2.5 and 1.8 Ma, and interprets increased aridity on a basin scale due to comparable records on the east and west side of present Lake Turkana. In this study, we increased the sample size of the current database and conducted widespread sampling of synchronous lateral horizons in the

  19. Tectonic Geomorphology of the northern Upper Rhine Graben, Germany.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, G; van Balen, R.T.


    This paper focuses on the northern Upper Rhine Graben (URG), which experienced low tectonic deformation and multiple climate changes during Quaternary times. Recently, human modifications have been high. The paper presents the results of a study into the effects of fault activity on the landscape

  20. Tectonically driven late Paleocene (57.9-54.7 Ma) transgression and climatically forced latest middle Eocene (41.3-38.0 Ma) regression on the Indian subcontinent (United States)

    Singh, B. P.; Singh, Y. Raghumani; Andotra, D. S.; Patra, A.; Srivastava, V. K.; Guruaribam, Venus; Sijagurumayum, Umarani; Singh, G. P.


    Cenozoic era was the turning point in the geological history of the Indian subcontinent when India experienced maximum isolation before it collided with Asia and there occurred a great mountain building activity shaping the Himalaya. In the Cenozoic era, the sedimentation commenced in the late Paleocene (∼57.9 Ma) in the pericratonic basins of the western India as well as the foreland basins of the Himalaya that marks the beginning of a major transgression on the Indian subcontinent. Till now, it is not sure whether this transgression was forced by tectonics or climate. We have interpreted that the primary driver for this transgression was the tectonics that marks the beginning of the India-Asia convergence. A major regression of similar magnitude occurred during latest middle Eocene (41.3-38.0 Ma) that corresponds to global sea-level fall. This regression is global and can be identified even in the Cenozoic basins developed within the African plate. It is interpreted that this regression was driven by the global cooling during latest middle Eocene/late Eocene possibly associated with the nucleation of the Antarctica ice-sheets coupled with the uplift of the Himalaya.

  1. Sensitivity of seawater oxygen isotopes to climatic and tectonic boundary conditions in an early Paleogene simulation with GISS ModelE-R (United States)

    Roberts, Christopher D.; Legrande, Allegra N.; Tripati, Aradhna K.


    An isotope-enabled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GISS ModelE-R) is used to estimate the spatial gradients of the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (δ18Osw, where δ is the deviation from a known reference material in per mil) during the early Paleogene (45-65 Ma). Understanding the response of δ18Osw to changes in climatic and tectonic boundary conditions is important because records of carbonate δ18O document changes in hydrology, as well as changes in temperature and global ice-volume. We present results from an early Paleogene configuration of ModelE-R which indicate that spatial gradients of surface ocean δ18Osw during this period could have been significantly different to those in the modern ocean. The differences inferred from ModelE-R are sufficient to change early Paleogene sea surface temperature estimates derived from primary carbonate δ18O signatures by more than ±2°C in large areas of the ocean. In the North Atlantic, Indian, and Southern Oceans, the differences in δ18Osw inferred from our simulation with ModelE-R are in direct contrast with those from another δ18O-tracing model study which used different, but equally plausible, early Paleogene boundary conditions. The large differences in δ18Osw between preindustrial and early Paleogene simulations, and between models, emphasizes the sensitivity of δ18Osw to climatic and tectonic boundary conditions. For this reason, absolute estimates of Eocene/Paleocene temperature derived from carbonate δ18O alone are likely to have larger uncertainties than are usually assumed.

  2. Collision tectonics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coward, M.P.; Ries, A.C.


    The motions of lithospheric plates have produced most existing mountain ranges, but structures produced as a result of, and following the collision of continental plates need to be distinguished from those produced before by subduction. If subduction is normally only stopped when collision occurs, then most geologically ancient fold belts must be collisional, so it is essential to recognize and understand the effects of the collision process. This book consists of papers that review collision tectonics, covering tectonics, structure, geochemistry, paleomagnetism, metamorphism, and magmatism.

  3. Characterizing the "Time of Emergence" of Air Quality Climate Penalties (United States)

    Rothenberg, D. A.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Monier, E.; Solomon, S.; Selin, N. E.


    By driving not only local changes in temperature, but also precipitation and regional-scale changes in seasonal circulation patterns, climate change can directly and indirectly influence changes in air quality and its extremes. These changes - often referred to as "climate penalties" - can have important implications for human health, which is often targeted when assessing the potential co-benefits of climate policy. But because climate penalties are driven by slow, spatially-varying, temporal changes in the climate system, their emergence in the real world should also have a spatio-temporal component following regional variability in background air quality. In this work, we attempt to estimate the spatially-varying "time of emergence" of climate penalty signals by using an ensemble modeling framework based on the MIT Integrated Global System Model (MIT IGSM). With this framework we assess three climate policy scenarios assuming three different underlying climate sensitivities, and conduct a 5-member ensemble for each case to capture internal variability within the model. These simulations are used to drive offline chemical transport modeling (using CAM-Chem and GEOS-Chem). In these simulations, we find that the air quality response to climate change can vary dramatically across different regions of the globe. To analyze these regionally-varying climate signals, we employ a hierarchical clustering technique to identify regions with similar seasonal patterns of air quality change. Our simulations suggest that the earliest emergence of ozone climate penalties would occur in Southern Europe (by 2035), should the world neglect climate change and rely on a "business-as-usual" emissions policy. However, even modest climate policy dramatically pushes back the time of emergence of these penalties - to beyond 2100 - across most of the globe. The emergence of climate-forced changes in PM2.5 are much more difficult to detect, partially owing to the large role that changes in

  4. Three Ingredients for Improved Global Aftershock Forecasts: Tectonic Region, Time-Dependent Catalog Incompleteness, and Inter-Sequence Variability (United States)

    Page, M. T.; Hardebeck, J.; Felzer, K. R.; Michael, A. J.; van der Elst, N.


    Following a large earthquake, seismic hazard can be orders of magnitude higher than the long-term average as a result of aftershock triggering. Due to this heightened hazard, there is a demand from emergency managers and the public for rapid, authoritative, and reliable aftershock forecasts. In the past, USGS aftershock forecasts following large, global earthquakes have been released on an ad-hoc basis with inconsistent methods, and in some cases, aftershock parameters adapted from California. To remedy this, we are currently developing an automated aftershock product that will generate more accurate forecasts based on the Reasenberg and Jones (Science, 1989) method. To better capture spatial variations in aftershock productivity and decay, we estimate regional aftershock parameters for sequences within the Garcia et al. (BSSA, 2012) tectonic regions. We find that regional variations for mean aftershock productivity exceed a factor of 10. The Reasenberg and Jones method combines modified-Omori aftershock decay, Utsu productivity scaling, and the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution. We additionally account for a time-dependent magnitude of completeness following large events in the catalog. We generalize the Helmstetter et al. (2005) equation for short-term aftershock incompleteness and solve for incompleteness levels in the global NEIC catalog following large mainshocks. In addition to estimating average sequence parameters within regions, we quantify the inter-sequence parameter variability. This allows for a more complete quantification of the forecast uncertainties and Bayesian updating of the forecast as sequence-specific information becomes available.

  5. A late Eocene palynological record of climate change and Tibetan Plateau uplift (Xining Basin, China)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abels, H.A.; Xu, Y.; Utescher, T.; Dupont-Nivet, G.


    Climate models suggest that Asian paleoenvironments, monsoons and continental aridification were primarily governed by tectonic uplift and sea retreat since the Eocene with potential contribution of global climate changes. However, the cause and timing of these paleoenvironmental changes remain

  6. Building a satellite climate diagnostics data base for real-time climate monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ropelewski, C.F.


    The paper discusses the development of a data base, the Satellite Climate Diagnostic Data Base (SCDDB), for real time operational climate monitoring utilizing current satellite data. Special attention is given to the satellite-derived quantities useful for monitoring global climate changes, the requirements of SCDDB, and the use of conventional meteorological data and model assimilated data in developing the SCDDB. Examples of prototype SCDDB products are presented. 10 refs

  7. Climate change: Time to Do Something Different

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadine ePage


    Full Text Available There is now very little, if any, doubt that the global climate is changing and that this is in some way related to human behaviour through unsustainable preferences in lifestyle and organisational practices. Despite the near conclusive evidence of the positive relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and global warming, a small proportion of people remain unconvinced. More importantly, even among the much larger number of people who accept a link between human behaviour and climate change, many are inactive, or insufficiently active, in attempting to remedy the situation. We suggest this is partly because people are unaware both of how their day-to-day behaviours connect with energy consumption and carbon emissions, and of the behavioural alternatives that are available to them. This, we believe, is a key reason why individual lifestyles and organisational practices continue in an unsustainable way. We also suggest that the psychologists and behavioural researchers who seek to develop a better understanding of people’s relationship with, and reaction to, environmental issues, might also be on track to suffer a similar blindness. They risk becoming fixed on investigating a limited range of established variables, perhaps to the detriment of alternative approaches that are more practically oriented though, so far, less well explored empirically. In this article, we present the FIT framework as an alternative perspective on the variables that might underpin pro-environmental activity and behaviour change. After briefly reviewing the related literature, we outline that framework. Then we present some early empirical data to show its relationship to a range of pro-environmental indices. We follow with a discussion of the framework’s relevance in relation to pro-environmental behaviour change and make proposals for future research.

  8. Climate change: time to Do Something Different. (United States)

    Page, Nadine; Page, Mike


    There is now very little, if any, doubt that the global climate is changing and that this is in some way related to human behavior through unsustainable preferences in lifestyle and organizational practices. Despite the near conclusive evidence of the positive relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and global warming, a small proportion of people remain unconvinced. More importantly, even among the much larger number of people who accept a link between human behavior and climate change, many are inactive, or insufficiently active, in attempting to remedy the situation. We suggest this is partly because people are unaware both of how their day-to-day behaviors connect with energy consumption and carbon emissions, and of the behavioral alternatives that are available to them. This, we believe, is a key reason why individual lifestyles and organizational practices continue in an unsustainable way. We also suggest that the psychologists and behavioral researchers who seek to develop a better understanding of people's relationship with, and reaction to, environmental issues, might also be on track to suffer a similar blindness. They risk becoming fixed on investigating a limited range of established variables, perhaps to the detriment of alternative approaches that are more practically oriented though, so far, less well explored empirically. In this article, we present the Framework for Internal Transformation as an alternative perspective on the variables that might underpin pro-environmental activity and behavior change. After briefly reviewing the related literature, we outline that framework. Then we present some early empirical data to show its relationship to a range of pro-environmental indices. We follow with a discussion of the framework's relevance in relation to pro-environmental behavior change and make proposals for future research.

  9. If climate action becomes urgent: The importance of response times for various climate strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.; Stehfest, E.


    Most deliberations on climate policy are based on a mitigation response that assumes a gradually increasing reduction over time. However, situations may occur where a more urgent response is needed. A key question for climate policy in general, but even more in the case a rapid response is needed,

  10. Dominant Lid Tectonics behaviour of continental lithosphere in Precambrian times: Palaeomagnetism confirms prolonged quasi-integrity and absence of supercontinent cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.D.A. Piper


    Full Text Available Although Plate Tectonics cannot be effectively tested by palaeomagnetism in the Precambrian aeon due to the paucity of high precision poles spanning such a long time period, the possibility of Lid Tectonics is eminently testable because it seeks accordance of the wider dataset over prolonged intervals of time; deficiencies and complexities in the data merely contribute to dispersion. Accordance of palaeomagnetic poles across a quasi-integral continental crust for time periods of up to thousands of millions of years, together with recognition of very long intervals characterised by minimal polar motions (∼2.6–2.0, ∼1.5–1.25 and ∼0.75–0.6 Ga has been used to demonstrate that Lid Tectonics dominated this aeon. The new PALEOMAGIA database is used to refine a model for the Precambrian lid incorporating a large quasi-integral crescentric core running from South-Central Africa through Laurentia to Siberia with peripheral cratons subject to reorganisation at ∼2.1, ∼1.6 and ∼1.1 Ga. The model explains low levels of tidal friction, reduced heat balance, unique petrologic and isotopic signatures, and the prolonged crustal stability of Earth's “Middle Age”, whilst density concentrations of the palaeomagnetic poles show that the centre of the continental lid was persistently focussed near Earth's rotation axis from ∼2.8 to 0.6 Ga. The exception was the ∼2.7–2.2 Ga interval defined by ∼90° polar movements which translated the periphery of the lid to the rotation pole for this quasi-static period, a time characterised by glaciation and low levels of magmatic activity; the ∼2.7 Ga shift correlates with key interval of mid-Archaean crustal growth to some 60–70% of the present volume and REE signatures whilst the ∼2.2 Ga shift correlates with the Lomagundi δ13 C and Great Oxygenation events. The palaeomagnetic signature of breakup of the lid at ∼0.6 Ga is recorded by the world-wide Ediacaran development of passive

  11. Spiral tectonics (United States)

    Hassan Asadiyan, Mohammad


    Spiral Tectonics (ST) is a new window to global tectonics introduced as alternative model for Plate Tectonics (PT). ST based upon Dahw(rolling) and Tahw(spreading) dynamics. Analogues to electric and magnetic components in the electromagnetic theory we could consider Dahw and Tahw as components of geodynamics, when one component increases the other decreases and vice versa. They are changed to each other during geological history. D-component represents continental crust and T-component represents oceanic crust. D and T are two arm of spiral-cell. T-arm 180 degree lags behind D-arm so named Retard-arm with respect to D or Forward-arm. It seems primary cell injected several billions years ago from Earth's center therefore the Earth's core was built up first then mantel and finally the crust was build up. Crust building initiate from Arabia (Mecca). As the universe extended gravitation wave swirled the earth fractaly along cycloid path from big to small scale. In global scale (order-0) ST collect continents in one side and abandoned Pacific Ocean in the other side. Recent researches also show two mantels upwelling in opposite side of the Earth: one under Africa (tectonic pose) and the other under Pacific Ocean (tectonic tail). In higher order (order-1) ST build up Africa in one side and S.America in the other side therefore left Atlantic Ocean meandered in between. In order-n e.g. Khoor Musa and Bandar-Deylam bay are seen meandered easterly in the Iranian part but Khoor Abdullah and Kuwait bay meandered westerly in the Arabian part, they are distributed symmetrically with respect to axis of Persian Gulf(PG), these two are fractal components of easterly Caspian-wing and westerly Black Sea-wing which split up from Anatoly. Caspian Sea and Black Sea make two legs of Y-like structure, this shape completely fitted with GPS-velocity map which start from PG and split up in the Catastrophic Point(Anatoly). We could consider PG as remnants of Ancient Ocean which spent up

  12. Active tectonics of NE Gujarat (India) by morphometric and morphostructural studies of Vatrak River basin (United States)

    Raj, Rachna


    Landscape owes its shape to the combination of tectonic and climatic forces. Differential displacement of land by tectonic processes changes the elevation of earth's surface locally and in turn affects the rate of geomorphic processes which are altitude dependent. The tectonic and geomorphic processes are very tightly coupled and their results are intertwined. To extract the tectonic signal, the numerical modelling of the landscape of the Vatrak River basin, part of which falls in the northern part of the Gujarat Alluvial Plains of western India, has been undertaken applying morphometric and morphostructural approach. The study helped in understanding the role of tectonic elements in the evolution of the basin. Demarcation of geomorphic indicators of active tectonics (which include the analyses of asymmetry factor, valley floor ratio, gradient, basin elongation ratio, long profile and related parameters, pseudo hypsometric integral, drainage basin asymmetry), drainage pattern analysis and azimuthal distribution of stream channels have been performed for each drainage network and associated basin. The morphological field evidence of tectonics combined with the results of morphometric analysis has been used to obtain information about the orientation of tectonic elements and the possible reconstruction of their activity in recent times. The analyses indicate eastward tilting of the drainage systems, strong asymmetry in some reaches, pronounced elongation of certain tributaries, long profiles indicating base level lowering, poor organisation of the hydrographic network, and close alignment between lower order streams and active faults. All these analyses point towards the active tectonism in the area. Data obtained through the statistical analysis of preferred stream orientations confirm that the old tectonic directions markedly influenced the drainage network development of the older order streams, whereas, streams of lower order which preferentially follow the N

  13. Managing time in a changing world: Timing of avian annual cycle stages under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tomotani, B.M.


    Animals need to time their seasonal activities such as breeding and migration to occur at the right time. They use cues from the environment to predict changes and organise their activities accordingly. What happens, then, when climate change interferes with this ability to make predictions? Climate

  14. Tectonic stages in Southern Greater Caucasus and Adjara Trialeti belt in Georgia: new results on timing and structures of inverted basins (United States)

    Candaux, Zoé; Sosson, Marc; Adamia, Shota; Sadradze, Nino; Alania, Victor; Enukidze, Onise; Chabukiani, Alexandre


    The Greater Caucasus mountain belt is the result of a long live subduction process and collisions of continental microplates (e.g. Dercourt et al., 1986; Barrier and Vrielynck, 2008). The northward subduction of Tethys beneath Eurasian plate initiated a back-arc basin: the Greater Caucasus basin (e.g. Adamia et al., 1981; Zonenshain and Le Pichon, 1986; Roberston et al., 1996; Stephenson and Schellart, 2010 among others). It took place from Middle Jurassic to Late Cretaceous. First compression stage started at the end of Cretaceous in the Lesser Caucasus (e.g. Rolland et al., 2010; Sosson et al. 2010, 2016) and Palaeocene-early Eocene in Crimean Mountains (northwestern continuation of the Greater Caucasus) (Sheremet et al., 2016). In southern Greater Caucasus (Georgian area) the age of deformation during the beginning of the collision is still a subject of debate: Oligocene-Lower Miocene at the frontal part (e.g. Adamia et al. 2010) or Eocene (Mosar et al., 2010). The deformation continues at Miocene, Pliocene and actual time in Kura and Rioni foreland basins (Forte et al., 2010; 2013; Mosar et al., 2010). The different timing is interpreted to be the result of the Taurides-Anatolides-South Armenian microcontinent collision with Eurasia, followed by the collision with Arabia. During the first collision, during Paleocene-Eocene, the so-called Adjara-Trialeti basin opened north of the volcanic arc. One question is if this local extension affect the timing of compression observed in the Greater Caucasus or not. In Georgia, we investigated new structural analyses, and considered unconformities and growth strata at the frontal part of deformations in Kura and Rioni forelands basins (in front of the Greater Caucasus). Our results evidence different tectonic stages and their timing. In Adjara-Trialeti, Kura and south Rioni basins deformation starts at Middle-Late Miocene. In northern Rioni basin Upper Cretaceous-Lower Paleocene compression is evidenced. The structures

  15. NASA Climate Days: Promoting Climate Literacy One Ambassador and One Event at a Time (United States)

    Weir, H. M.; Lewis, P. M.; Chambers, L. H.; Millham, R. A.; Richardson, A.


    presentations from the training, along with downloadable Climate Day Kit materials. Utilizing informal educators from museums, aquariums, libraries and other similar venues allow the hard-to-understand, sometimes-controversial, topic of climate change to be presented to the public in tailored events that suit an individual community's needs. Included in the process of scheduling and executing these climate events, the Ambassadors participate in virtual conferences to discuss progress, to ensure proper evaluation and to allow ample time for questions from the trainers and scientists. This ensures an accurate stream of information from the scientist to the public in a fashion that can be understood and digested by the layperson, helping them to make better-informed decisions about societal issues related to global climate change. Through a series of local Climate Day events, it is hoped that the public will have the opportunity to have first hand experience with the topic of climate change, leaving with a better understanding of its scientific basis. Outcome: This paper will summarize the various methods and strategies used in the Climate Day training events. A discussion of methods that work and those that do not for informal education will help provide a better understanding of the challenges faced in educating the public on such a controversial and hard-to-understand topic.

  16. The time scales of the climate-economy feedback and the climatic cost of growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallegatte, Stephane


    This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modelling. In a second part, a climate-economy feedback is defined and characterized. It is found that: (i) it has a 70-year characteristic time, which is long when compared to the system's other time-scales, and it cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change; (ii) mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback of an emission reduction on the economy is significant only after a 20-year delay and really efficient after a one-century delay; (iii) the IPCC methodology, that neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions, is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth. Usefully, this metric for climate change damages is particularly independent of the baseline scenario. (orig.)

  17. The time scales of the climate-economy feedback and the climatic cost of growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hallegatte, Stephane [CIRED - CNRM, Nogent-sur-Marne (France)


    This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modelling. In a second part, a climate-economy feedback is defined and characterized. It is found that: (i) it has a 70-year characteristic time, which is long when compared to the system's other time-scales, and it cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change; (ii) mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback of an emission reduction on the economy is significant only after a 20-year delay and really efficient after a one-century delay; (iii) the IPCC methodology, that neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions, is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth. Usefully, this metric for climate change damages is particularly independent of the baseline scenario. (orig.)

  18. A comprehensive view of Late Quaternary fluvial sediments and stratal architecture in a tectonically active basin: Influence of eustasy, climate, and tectonics on the Bengal Basin and Brahmaputra River system (United States)

    Sincavage, R.; Goodbred, S. L.; Williams, L. A.; Pickering, J.; Wilson, C.; Steckler, M. S.; Seeber, L.; Reitz, M. D.; Hossain, S.; Akhter, S. H.; Mondal, D. R.; Paola, C.


    More than 130 closely-spaced (~3-5 km) boreholes have been drilled along five transects in the upper Bengal Basin, providing the first detailed record of the stratigraphic architecture and provenance of the entire Late Quaternary fluviodeltaic sedimentary succession of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta (GBMD). This effort is part of BanglaPIRE, an interdisciplinary, multi-institutional research effort aimed at unraveling the history and mechanisms of river-tectonic-basin interactions in the GBMD and Bengal basin, around which three tectonic plates converge. Following the Younger-Dryas, the onset of a strong summer monsoon coincident with continued eustatic sea-level rise initiated construction of the modern delta and rapid development of a thick (up to 80 m) succession of fluvial and deltaic sediments. These deposits illustrate several (3-4) avulsions and asymmetric occupations of the Brahmaputra River in the tectonically active Sylhet Basin. We hypothesize that the longer occupation periods (10 3 years) may be classified as major river avulsions driven by autogenic fluvial processes, whereas shorter occupation periods (10 2 years) reflect minor distributive events that may have been initiated by allogenic forcing via floods or earthquakes. Subsidence rates in Sylhet Basin, driven by an active foredeep, are relatively high (~5 mm/yr); however, the Brahmaputra River does not regularly migrate towards this side of the delta. Annual widespread flooding of Sylhet Basin may negate the potential topographic attraction for the system to be steered in this direction. Furthermore, a gentle westward topographic tilt of the active thrust front of the Tripura fold belt appears to have forced lateral steering of the Brahmaputra River and initiated erosion of a bench-cut terrace into an adjacent Pleistocene landform. Tectonic effects over longer timescales (10 3 years) are revealed by the presence of sediment with a unique provenance at the core of regional anticlines, which

  19. Warning times for species extinctions due to climate change. (United States)

    Stanton, Jessica C; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Pearson, Richard G; Akçakaya, H Resit


    Climate change is likely to become an increasingly major obstacle to slowing the rate of species extinctions. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for identifying climate-vulnerable species, based on the assumption that established systems such as the IUCN Red List need revising or replacing because they were not developed to explicitly consider climate change. However, no assessment approach has been tested to determine its ability to provide advanced warning time for conservation action for species that might go extinct due to climate change. To test the performance of the Red List system in this capacity, we used linked niche-demographic models with habitat dynamics driven by a 'business-as-usual' climate change scenario. We generated replicate 100-year trajectories for range-restricted reptiles and amphibians endemic to the United States. For each replicate, we categorized the simulated species according to IUCN Red List criteria at annual, 5-year, and 10-year intervals (the latter representing current practice). For replicates that went extinct, we calculated warning time as the number of years the simulated species was continuously listed in a threatened category prior to extinction. To simulate data limitations, we repeated the analysis using a single criterion at a time (disregarding other listing criteria). Results show that when all criteria can be used, the Red List system would provide several decades of warning time (median = 62 years; >20 years for 99% of replicates), but suggest that conservation actions should begin as soon as a species is listed as Vulnerable, because 50% of replicates went extinct within 20 years of becoming uplisted to Critically Endangered. When only one criterion was used, warning times were substantially shorter, but more frequent assessments increased the warning time by about a decade. Overall, we found that the Red List criteria reliably provide a sensitive and precautionary way to assess extinction

  20. Methods for assessment of climate variability and climate changes in different time-space scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobanov, V.; Lobanova, H.


    Main problem of hydrology and design support for water projects connects with modern climate change and its impact on hydrological characteristics as observed as well as designed. There are three main stages of this problem: - how to extract a climate variability and climate change from complex hydrological records; - how to assess the contribution of climate change and its significance for the point and area; - how to use the detected climate change for computation of design hydrological characteristics. Design hydrological characteristic is the main generalized information, which is used for water management and design support. First step of a research is a choice of hydrological characteristic, which can be as a traditional one (annual runoff for assessment of water resources, maxima, minima runoff, etc) as well as a new one, which characterizes an intra-annual function or intra-annual runoff distribution. For this aim a linear model has been developed which has two coefficients connected with an amplitude and level (initial conditions) of seasonal function and one parameter, which characterizes an intensity of synoptic and macro-synoptic fluctuations inside a year. Effective statistical methods have been developed for a separation of climate variability and climate change and extraction of homogeneous components of three time scales from observed long-term time series: intra annual, decadal and centural. The first two are connected with climate variability and the last (centural) with climate change. Efficiency of new methods of decomposition and smoothing has been estimated by stochastic modeling and well as on the synthetic examples. For an assessment of contribution and statistical significance of modern climate change components statistical criteria and methods have been used. Next step has been connected with a generalization of the results of detected climate changes over the area and spatial modeling. For determination of homogeneous region with the same

  1. What trees tell us about the climate of past times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graf, W.; Trimborn, P.; Stichler, W.


    The air temperatures in Central Europe have risen by approximately one degree centigrade since the last century. Climate models predict a further warming of the earth's atmosphere. The causes are still disputed. Most scientists attribute the rise in temperature to the increase in greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere. Others point out that the observed variations will probably not exceed the extent of the natural climate fluctuations that occurred during the Holocene period - the warm period that began approximately 11,000 years ago. Who is right? Palaeoclimatologists try to assess the natural variability of the climate, and to decide whether the 20th century is really unusual in comparison with the preceding millennia. There are various climate archives available for this. The Institute of Hydrology investigates fossilised trees. Fossilised trees store information about the climate in earlier times in, amongst others, cellulose: specifically in the ratios of the stable isotopes of carbon ( 13 C/ 12 C), hydrogen ( 2 H/ 1 H) and oxygen ( 18 O/ 16 O). As a result of the development of annual rings, the trees represent a climate archive with high temporal resolution. (orig.) [de

  2. Paleozoic structure of Middle Tien Shan (Kyrgyzstan Central Asian Orogenic Belt): Insights on the polarity and timing of tectonic motions, subductions, and lateral correlations (United States)

    Jourdon, Anthony; Loury, Chloé; Rolland, Yann; Petit, Carole; Bellahsen, Nicolas


    The structure and Palaeozoic tectonic evolution in Kyrgyz and Chinese Tien Shan Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB) are still a matter of debate. There are numerous and conflicting models about the polarity of tectonic motions in the Paleozoic, the number of continental blocks and oceanic basins involved and the timing of tectonic events. In this study we propose new maps and structural cross-sections of Middle and South Kyrgyz Tien Shan (TS). These cross-sections allow us to highlight an overall South-verging structure in the Middle TS, with a thick-skin style involving the crystalline basement. This deformation occurred during the Early Carboniferous, and is sealed by an Upper Carboniferous unconformity. We ascribe this structure to an Upper Plate deformation linked to north-dipping subduction below Middle TS. In contrast, the South TS exhibits a north-verging structure, linked to south-dipping subduction, which is evidenced by an accretionary prism, a volcanic arc, and high-pressure rocks (Loury et al., 2015), and is correlated to similar structures in the Chinese TS (e.g., Charvet et al., 2011). Based on these observations, we propose a new interpretation of the tectonic evolution of the Middle and South TS CAOB. The resulting model comprises a long-lived north-dipping subduction of the Turkestan Ocean below the Middle TS-Karazakh Platform and a short-lived south-dipping subduction of a marginal back-arc basin below the Tarim. Consequently, the South TS is interpreted as a rifted block from the Tarim. Finally, the docking of the large Tarim Craton to the CAOB corresponds to a rapid collision phase (320-300 Ma). This put an end to the long-lived Paleozoic subduction history in the CAOB. Charvet, J., Shu, L., et al., 2011. Palaeozoic tectonic evolution of the Tianshan belt, NW China. Science China Earth Sciences, 54, 166-184. Loury, C. , Rolland, Y., Guillot S., Mikolaichuk, A.V., Lanari, P., Bruguier, O., D.Bosch, 2015. Crustal-scale structure of South Tien Shan

  3. Climate and weather impact timing of emergence of bats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Winifred F Frick

    Full Text Available Interest in forecasting impacts of climate change have heightened attention in recent decades to how animals respond to variation in climate and weather patterns. One difficulty in determining animal response to climate variation is lack of long-term datasets that record animal behaviors over decadal scales. We used radar observations from the national NEXRAD network of Doppler weather radars to measure how group behavior in a colonially-roosting bat species responded to annual variation in climate and daily variation in weather over the past 11 years. Brazilian free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis form dense aggregations in cave roosts in Texas. These bats emerge from caves daily to forage at high altitudes, which makes them detectable with Doppler weather radars. Timing of emergence in bats is often viewed as an adaptive trade-off between emerging early and risking predation or increased competition and emerging late which restricts foraging opportunities. We used timing of emergence from five maternity colonies of Brazilian free-tailed bats in south-central Texas during the peak lactation period (15 June-15 July to determine whether emergence behavior was associated with summer drought conditions and daily temperatures. Bats emerged significantly earlier during years with extreme drought conditions than during moist years. Bats emerged later on days with high surface temperatures in both dry and moist years, but there was no relationship between surface temperatures and timing of emergence in summers with normal moisture levels. We conclude that emergence behavior is a flexible animal response to climate and weather conditions and may be a useful indicator for monitoring animal response to long-term shifts in climate.

  4. Deciphering the Role of Tectonic and Climatic Processes on the Landscape Development of the Patagonian Andes Along the Liquiñe-Ofqui Fault System, Chile (United States)

    Buscher, J.; Morata, D.; Arancibia, G.; Cembrano, J. M.


    Transpressional plate boundaries often exhibit a correlation between plate obliquity and crustal deformation, but establishing spatial and temporal constraints on this relationship is challenging. The presence of continuous rugged topography along many transpressional fault zones as well as along-fault translation of crustal blocks can obscure the link between plate boundary geometry and mountain belt development. The Liquiñe-Ofqui fault system in the Patagonian Andes is an intra-arc dextral-reverse fault zone linked to oblique plate convergence between the Nazca and South America plates that represents a model setting for studying transpressional landscape development. The topography along the Liquiñe-Ofqui fault system is characterized by glacially and fluvially carved rocks of the Patagonian batholith interspersed by a chain of volcanoes that extends subparallel to the fault zone. Available structural and low-temperature thermochronometry data from the region suggest that both transpressional exhumation and glacial erosion have contributed to the long-term development of the orogen (Cembrano et al., 2002; Thomson, 2002; Thomson et al., 2010). Of particular interest is a near-field locus of young cooling ages thought to reflect shear heating along the fault zone (Thomson, 2002) or focused glacial erosion (Thomson et al., 2010; Herman and Brandon, 2015). To help quantify the topographic response to tectonic and climatic processes along the fault zone, we have evaluated first-order topographic features (gross distribution of elevation, relief and slope) and conducted river profile analyses (stream length-gradient, normalized channel steepness and stream convexity indices) using SRTM digital elevation data for comparison with low-temperature thermochronometry data. Preliminary results suggest that the distribution of topographic and river profile features varies with location along the Liquiñe-Ofqui fault system.

  5. Short-term volcano-tectonic earthquake forecasts based on a moving mean recurrence time algorithm: the El Hierro seismo-volcanic crisis experience (United States)

    García, Alicia; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Marrero, José M.; Ortiz, Ramón


    Under certain conditions, volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes may pose significant hazards to people living in or near active volcanic regions, especially on volcanic islands; however, hazard arising from VT activity caused by localized volcanic sources is rarely addressed in the literature. The evolution of VT earthquakes resulting from a magmatic intrusion shows some orderly behaviour that may allow the occurrence and magnitude of major events to be forecast. Thus governmental decision makers can be supplied with warnings of the increased probability of larger-magnitude earthquakes on the short-term timescale. We present here a methodology for forecasting the occurrence of large-magnitude VT events during volcanic crises; it is based on a mean recurrence time (MRT) algorithm that translates the Gutenberg-Richter distribution parameter fluctuations into time windows of increased probability of a major VT earthquake. The MRT forecasting algorithm was developed after observing a repetitive pattern in the seismic swarm episodes occurring between July and November 2011 at El Hierro (Canary Islands). From then on, this methodology has been applied to the consecutive seismic crises registered at El Hierro, achieving a high success rate in the real-time forecasting, within 10-day time windows, of volcano-tectonic earthquakes.

  6. Interglacial climate dynamics and advanced time series analysis (United States)

    Mudelsee, Manfred; Bermejo, Miguel; Köhler, Peter; Lohmann, Gerrit


    Studying the climate dynamics of past interglacials (IGs) helps to better assess the anthropogenically influenced dynamics of the current IG, the Holocene. We select the IG portions from the EPICA Dome C ice core archive, which covers the past 800 ka, to apply methods of statistical time series analysis (Mudelsee 2010). The analysed variables are deuterium/H (indicating temperature) (Jouzel et al. 2007), greenhouse gases (Siegenthaler et al. 2005, Loulergue et al. 2008, L¨ü thi et al. 2008) and a model-co-derived climate radiative forcing (Köhler et al. 2010). We select additionally high-resolution sea-surface-temperature records from the marine sedimentary archive. The first statistical method, persistence time estimation (Mudelsee 2002) lets us infer the 'climate memory' property of IGs. Second, linear regression informs about long-term climate trends during IGs. Third, ramp function regression (Mudelsee 2000) is adapted to look on abrupt climate changes during IGs. We compare the Holocene with previous IGs in terms of these mathematical approaches, interprete results in a climate context, assess uncertainties and the requirements to data from old IGs for yielding results of 'acceptable' accuracy. This work receives financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (Project ClimSens within the DFG Research Priority Program INTERDYNAMIK) and the European Commission (Marie Curie Initial Training Network LINC, No. 289447, within the 7th Framework Programme). References Jouzel J, Masson-Delmotte V, Cattani O, Dreyfus G, Falourd S, Hoffmann G, Minster B, Nouet J, Barnola JM, Chappellaz J, Fischer H, Gallet JC, Johnsen S, Leuenberger M, Loulergue L, Luethi D, Oerter H, Parrenin F, Raisbeck G, Raynaud D, Schilt A, Schwander J, Selmo E, Souchez R, Spahni R, Stauffer B, Steffensen JP, Stenni B, Stocker TF, Tison JL, Werner M, Wolff EW (2007) Orbital and millennial Antarctic climate variability over the past 800,000 years. Science 317:793. Köhler P, Bintanja R

  7. Late cenozoic landscape development and its tectonic implications for the guadalhorce valley near alora (southern Spain)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoorl, J.M.; Veldkamp, A.


    Landscape evolution is the result of a variety of geomorphological processes and their controls in time. In southern Spain tectonics, climate and sea-level fluctuations have been some of the main variables controlling long-term (Late Cenozoic) landscape evolution. In the Guadalhorce valley, Malaga,

  8. Discontinuities and sequences in the Tarat formation (Upper Visean) and the Arlit Unit (Namurian-Westphalian) at Arlit (Niger). Sedimentary climatic and tectonic evolution of the area during Carboniferous

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sempere, T.; Beaudoin, B.


    The Tarat Formation is composed at Arlit of three sequences consisting of sandstones and black mudstones rich in organic matter of continental origin. The three of them are interpreted as estuarine sediments deposited in different tectonic frameworks. The Arlit Unit consists of motley argillaceous sandstones deposited in a very flat lacustrine or alluvial environment and under an arid climate. These formations are separated by a fundamental discontinuity linked to the structuration of the Tim Mersoi Trough. At regional scale, the sediments lying below this discontinuity are grouped in tectono-sedimentary supersequences, which are interpreted as biorhexistasic rhythms; their deposition was horizontally directed by complex evolving synsedimentary tectonics controlled by the N-S In Azawa Lineament, and was influenced by the permanent proximity of a northern sea. The sediments lying above the fundamental discontinuity belong to the ''Continental Intercalaire'' Supergroup; their deposition was influenced by the Tim Mersoi Trough. The whole Carboniferous sedimentation took place in a climatic context which evolved from cold (Lower Visean) to warm and arid (Upper Carboniferous) through temperate climates [fr

  9. Soil Carbon in the Time of Climate Change (United States)

    Amundson, R.


    The Earth is in the midst of human induced climate change driven by the emission of greenhouse gases largely through fossil fuels and land conversion. Drastically and rapidly reducing the net emissions are critical to avoid societally disruptive climate changes by the end of the Century. In the midst of this change are soils, that have a vast store of C and for a given change in conditions, can either rapidly add or remove C from the atmosphere. Mainstream soil and agricultural science has focused on the former for nearly two decades, conducting research and estimates of the potential global C sequestration potential of soils due to changed land management. This has culminated with the French 4 per mille initiative. While it is possible that in some countries, at some times, economic or political forces may drive farming practices one way or another, the estimated requirement that 30 to 70% of all farms on Earth adopt the best practices needed to achieve this goal is simply unrealistic. In addition, it diverts attention and resources from much more viable alternatives, and is clouding the growing need for climate adaption strategies that soil and environmental science will need to provide. Soil C sequestration will never be a significant "bridge" to C-free energy during the next few decades, which is the time frame of critical importance. Most likely, soil will be part of the CO2 sources. Few agricultural sequestration studies explicitly consider the positive feedback between soil C and temperature, and on-going loss of soil C to the atmosphere. Truly comprehensive studies of the combined management vs. climate feedback effects on soil C are few, but tend to conclude that even managed soils will continue to be a net source of CO2 this century. Only by reducing fossil fuel C emissions will we successfully, and in a time frame required by the Earth's climate system, contend with the greenhouse gas issue. Better soil C management is unlikely to slow or hold off

  10. Climatic and landscape controls on travel time distributions across Europe (United States)

    Kumar, Rohini; Rao, Suresh; Hesse, Falk; Borchardt, Dietrich; Fleckenstein, Jan; Jawitz, James; Musolff, Andreas; Rakovec, Oldrich; Samaniego, Luis; Yang, Soohyun; Zink, Matthias; Attinger, Sabine


    Travel time distributions (TTDs) are fundamental descriptors to characterize the functioning of storage, mixing and release of water and solutes in a river basin. Identifying the relative importance (and controls) of climate and landscape attributes on TDDs is fundamental to improve our understanding of the underlying mechanism controlling the spatial heterogeneity of TTDs, and their moments (e.g., mean TT). Studies aimed at elucidating such controls have focused on either theoretical developments to gain (physical) insights using mostly synthetic datasets or empirical relationships using limited datasets from experimental sites. A study painting a general picture of emerging controls at a continental scale is still lacking. In this study, we make use of spatially resolved hydrologic fluxes and states generated through an observationally driven, mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM; to comprehensively characterize the dominant controls of climate and landscape attributes on TDDs in the vadose zone across the entire European region. mHM uses a novel Multiscale Parameter Regionalization (MPR; Samaniego et al., 2010 and Kumar et al., 2013) scheme that encapsulates fine scale landscape attributes (e.g., topography, soil, and vegetation characteristics) to account for the sub-grid variability in model parameterization. The model was established at 25 km spatial resolution to simulate the daily gridded fluxes and states over Europe for the period 1955-2015. We utilized recent developments in TTDs theory (e.g., Botter et al., 2010, Harman et al., 2011) to characterize the stationary and non-stationary behavior of water particles transported through the vadose zone at every grid cell. Our results suggest a complex set of interactions between climate and landscape properties controlling the spatial heterogeneity of the mean travel time (TT). The spatial variability in the mean TT across the Pan-EU generally follows the climatic gradient with lower values in humid

  11. Time scales of coupled modes in the tropical climate system (United States)

    An, S. I.; Bejarano, L.; Jin, F. F.


    Climate variability in the tropical Pacific has a rich frequency spectrum that partly results from coupled modes different time scales. We examined the contributions of the thermocline feedback (the vertical advection of anomalous subsurface temperature by the mean upwelling) and zonal advective feedback (the zonal advection of mean sea surface temperature by anomalous current) in determining the time scales of the coupled modes. Firstly, using a simple ocean model, we study the dependence of maximum amplitudes and locations of equatorial zonal current and thermocline on the time scales of the wind forcing. Then we examine in a linearized version of coupled Zebiak-Cane model the impacts of these feedbacks on the co-existence of leading coupled modes of different time scales. For slowly varying wind forcing, amplitudes of zonal currents are very weak and locate at western Pacific, whereas the thermocline response is strong. The zonal advective feedback thus tends but to be of secondly importance in a slow mode of interannual periodicity although it plays a dominating role in a fast coupled mode of near annual periodicity. The changes in the basic state of the coupled system can have significant impacts on the relative importance of the two main feedbacks and thus the periodicity and stability of the leading modes of the coupled tropical Pacific climate system.

  12. Just-in-time Time Data Analytics and Visualization of Climate Simulations using the Bellerophon Framework (United States)

    Anantharaj, V. G.; Venzke, J.; Lingerfelt, E.; Messer, B.


    Climate model simulations are used to understand the evolution and variability of earth's climate. Unfortunately, high-resolution multi-decadal climate simulations can take days to weeks to complete. Typically, the simulation results are not analyzed until the model runs have ended. During the course of the simulation, the output may be processed periodically to ensure that the model is preforming as expected. However, most of the data analytics and visualization are not performed until the simulation is finished. The lengthy time period needed for the completion of the simulation constrains the productivity of climate scientists. Our implementation of near real-time data visualization analytics capabilities allows scientists to monitor the progress of their simulations while the model is running. Our analytics software executes concurrently in a co-scheduling mode, monitoring data production. When new data are generated by the simulation, a co-scheduled data analytics job is submitted to render visualization artifacts of the latest results. These visualization output are automatically transferred to Bellerophon's data server located at ORNL's Compute and Data Environment for Science (CADES) where they are processed and archived into Bellerophon's database. During the course of the experiment, climate scientists can then use Bellerophon's graphical user interface to view animated plots and their associated metadata. The quick turnaround from the start of the simulation until the data are analyzed permits research decisions and projections to be made days or sometimes even weeks sooner than otherwise possible! The supercomputer resources used to run the simulation are unaffected by co-scheduling the data visualization jobs, so the model runs continuously while the data are visualized. Our just-in-time data visualization software looks to increase climate scientists' productivity as climate modeling moves into exascale era of computing.

  13. Volcanism and tectonics in action along the Southern Andes: space-time analysis of current deformation recorded by GNSS and seismicity (United States)

    Tassara, Andres; Giorgis, Scott; Yáñez, Vicente; Garcia, Francisco; Baez, Juan Carlos; Lara, Luis


    The Southern Andean margin is perhaps the best natural laboratory on Earth to study the relationship between volcanism and active tectonics. Convergence between Nazca and Southamerican plates along the Southern Andes is relatively rapid (66 mm/yr) and slightly oblique (15-20°) with respect to the continental margin. The trench-normal component of convergence is mainly released along the megathrust fault by great subduction earthquakes. At the time scale of millions of years, the trench-parallel component has been mostly released by dextral strike-slip along the Liquiñe-Ofqui Fault Zone (LOFZ), a long-lived (Eocene-Recent) crustal-scale structure more than 1000 km long which is intimately related to the Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ) of the Andes. Volcanic systems of the SVZ are clustered near intersections of the LOFZ with oblique and inherited basement structures. In contrast with this clear relationship between crustal tectonics and volcanism at long time-scales, little is still known (here and elsewhere) at the time scale of earthquakes and eruptions about the mechanisms by which they actually interact to create the observed long-term relationship. Into this framework, we are taking advantage of the largely unpublished and very unique geodetic and seismic database that is available for us via the project Active Tectonics and Volcanism at the Southern Andes (ACT&VO-SA) in order to gain understanding about the physical link between contemporary tectono-volcanic processes occurred recently along the southern Andean margin and the long-term construction of the LOFZ-SVZ. We will present a characterization of the current surface velocity field along this region deduced from a kinematic analysis of a network of continuous GNSS stations operating since 2007 and relate this with the spatio-temporal evolution of crustal seismicity recorded by seismic networks maintained by Chilean institutions in order to analyze the possible connection between crustal deformation and

  14. Climate Data Provenance Tracking for Just-In-Time Computation (United States)

    Fries, S.; Nadeau, D.; Doutriaux, C.; Williams, D. N.


    The "Climate Data Management System" (CDMS) was created in 1996 as part of the Climate Data Analysis Tools suite of software. It provides a simple interface into a wide variety of climate data formats, and creates NetCDF CF-Compliant files. It leverages the NumPy framework for high performance computation, and is an all-in-one IO and computation package. CDMS has been extended to track manipulations of data, and trace that data all the way to the original raw data. This extension tracks provenance about data, and enables just-in-time (JIT) computation. The provenance for each variable is packaged as part of the variable's metadata, and can be used to validate data processing and computations (by repeating the analysis on the original data). It also allows for an alternate solution for sharing analyzed data; if the bandwidth for a transfer is prohibitively expensive, the provenance serialization can be passed in a much more compact format and the analysis rerun on the input data. Data provenance tracking in CDMS enables far-reaching and impactful functionalities, permitting implementation of many analytical paradigms.

  15. Tectonics of montage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bundgaard, Charlotte


    We build in accordance with specific contemporary conditions, defined by production methods, construction and materials as well as ethics, meaning and values. Exactly this relationship between the work as such and the conditions behind its coming into being is a crucial point. The simultaneity of...... and the creation of meaning forms the core of tectonics. So tectonic thinking is not only about portraying a constructional logic. Tectonics is to create material realities that reveal narrative meaning. Tectonics is to construct with cultural references....

  16. Arctic climate change with a 2C global warming. Timing, climate patterns and vegetation change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplan, J.O.; New, M.


    The signatories to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are charged with stabilizing the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that prevents dangerous interference with the climate system. A number of nations, organizations and scientists have suggested that global mean temperature should not rise over 2C above preindustrial levels. However, even a relatively moderate target of 2C has serious implications for the Arctic, where temperatures are predicted to increase at least 1.5 to 2 times as fast as global temperatures. High latitude vegetation plays a significant role in the lives of humans and animals, and in the global energy balance and carbon budget. These ecosystems are expected to be among the most strongly impacted by climate change over the next century. To investigate the potential impact of stabilization of global temperature at 2C, we performed a study using data from six Global Climate Models (GCMs) forced by four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the BIOME4 biogeochemistry-biogeography model, and remote sensing data. GCM data were used to predict the timing and patterns of Arctic climate change under a global mean warming of 2C. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra and six forest biomes was used to develop a map of observed Arctic vegetation. BIOME4 was used to simulate the vegetation distributions over the Arctic at the present and for a range of 2C global warming scenarios. The GCMs simulations indicate that the earth will have warmed by 2C relative to preindustrial temperatures by between 2026 and 2060, by which stage the area-mean annual temperature over the Arctic (60-90N) will have increased by between 3.2 and 6.6C. Forest extent is predicted by BIOME4 to increase in the Arctic on the order of 3 x 106 km 2 or 55% with a corresponding 42% reduction in tundra area. Tundra types generally also shift north with the largest reductions in the prostrate dwarf-shrub tundra

  17. Cenozoic climate changes: A review based on time series analysis of marine benthic δ18O records (United States)

    Mudelsee, Manfred; Bickert, Torsten; Lear, Caroline H.; Lohmann, Gerrit


    The climate during the Cenozoic era changed in several steps from ice-free poles and warm conditions to ice-covered poles and cold conditions. Since the 1950s, a body of information on ice volume and temperature changes has been built up predominantly on the basis of measurements of the oxygen isotopic composition of shells of benthic foraminifera collected from marine sediment cores. The statistical methodology of time series analysis has also evolved, allowing more information to be extracted from these records. Here we provide a comprehensive view of Cenozoic climate evolution by means of a coherent and systematic application of time series analytical tools to each record from a compilation spanning the interval from 4 to 61 Myr ago. We quantitatively describe several prominent features of the oxygen isotope record, taking into account the various sources of uncertainty (including measurement, proxy noise, and dating errors). The estimated transition times and amplitudes allow us to assess causal climatological-tectonic influences on the following known features of the Cenozoic oxygen isotopic record: Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Eocene-Oligocene Transition, Oligocene-Miocene Boundary, and the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. We further describe and causally interpret the following features: Paleocene-Eocene warming trend, the two-step, long-term Eocene cooling, and the changes within the most recent interval (Miocene-Pliocene). We review the scope and methods of constructing Cenozoic stacks of benthic oxygen isotope records and present two new latitudinal stacks, which capture besides global ice volume also bottom water temperatures at low (less than 30°) and high latitudes. This review concludes with an identification of future directions for data collection, statistical method development, and climate modeling.

  18. Plate tectonics

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chaubey, A.K.

    ), for the first time, have proposed time scale for geomagnetic reversals making use of the Potassium- Argon (K-Ar) dates. Further, discovery of short polarity event of duration as small as 10 5 years within the major polarity intervals have led to modify... of geomagnetism e.g. Brunhes, Matuyama, Gauss, Gilbert, while the short duration polarity events (short intra-epoch fluctuations) were named after the sites of their discovery (Cox et al., 1964). A polarity epoch may contain several polarity events and can...

  19. Fluvial sequences of the Maas : a 10 Ma record of neotectonics and climatic change at various time-scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, van den M.W.


    Around 10 million years ago, the interplay of tectonics, climate and sea level changed markedly in the southern North Sea Basin. One of the results was the start of rapid progradation of the Rhine/Meuse delta. The sediments of this basin-filling complex have been preserved in a number of

  20. Cranberry flowering times and climate change in southern Massachusetts (United States)

    Ellwood, Elizabeth R.; Playfair, Susan R.; Polgar, Caroline A.; Primack, Richard B.


    Plants in wild and agricultural settings are being affected by the warmer temperatures associated with climate change. Here we examine the degree to which the iconic New England cranberry, Vaccinium macrocarpon, is exhibiting signs of altered flowering phenology. Using contemporary records from commercial cranberry bogs in southeastern Massachusetts in the United States, we found that cranberry plants are responsive to temperature. Flowering is approximately 2 days earlier for each 1 °C increase in May temperature. We also investigated the relationship between cranberry flowering and flight dates of the bog copper, Lycaena epixanthe—a butterfly dependent upon cranberry plants in its larval stage. Cranberry flowering and bog copper emergence were found to be changing disproportionately over time, suggesting a potential ecological mismatch. The pattern of advanced cranberry flowering over time coupled with increased temperature has implications not only for the relationship between cranberry plants and their insect associates but also for agricultural crops in general and for the commercial cranberry industry.

  1. Timing, Controls and Tectonic Context of Gold Mineralisation in the Southern Uplands-Longford-Down Terrane, Caledonides, Scotland and Ireland. (United States)

    Rice, Samuel; Cuthbert, Simon; Hursthouse, Andrew


    The relationships between regional tectonic, magmatic and metamorphic events and hydrothermal mineralisation in orogenic settings are controversial [1]. The geotectonic development of the Caledonian orogenic belt of the northern British Isles, which hosts some significant gold deposits, is well-constrained and provides an excellent framework for investigating these relationships. Gold mineralisation at two of the best known deposits, Curraghinalt and Cononish, located in the Grampian Terrane, has recently been shown to have occurred between 462.7 and 452.8 Ma, during the Late Ordovician Grampian event of the Caledonian orogeny [2]. In the Southern Uplands-Longford-Down Terrane syn and post-kinnematic intrusions constrain the age of mineralisation to between 418 and 397 Ma. Mineralisation is hosted by late Caledonian transverse D3 structures of Early Devonian age [3]. Fluid inclusion data indicate that the auriferous quartz veins were deposited from a low salinity carbonic mesothermal ( 330°C) fluid of apparently mixed magmatic-metamorphic origin, consistent with a Caledonian orogenic origin [4-6]. Gold mineralisation is associated with contemporaneous minor intrusions at several localities [7-9] exhibiting comparable mineralogy, geochemistry, fluid inclusion types and structural relationships, indicating that coeval regional magmatism may have been a significant factor for all of the deposits. Gold mineralisation in the SULDT occurred during a transition from compression to strike-slip deformation coeval with a regional pulse of orogenic magmatism [10]. The common association between gold deposits in Phanerozoic orogenic settings and intrusions may explain overlapping characteristics between orogenic, intrusion-related and porphyry gold deposits and may reflect the important role of magmatism in conveying the heat to drive hydrothermal systems at shallow crustal levels. Further work will focus on constraining the sources of mineralising fluids and metals. 1

  2. Geodynamic evolution of the Earth over the Phanerozoic: Plate tectonic activity and palaeoclimatic indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Vérard


    In this paper, we compare values derived from the tectonic model (ages of oceanic floor, production and subduction rates, tectonic activity with a combination of chemical proxies (namely CO2, 87Sr/86Sr, glaciation evidence, and sea-level variations known to be strongly influenced by tectonics. One of the outstanding results is the observation of an overall decreasing trend in the evolution of the global tectonic activity, mean oceanic ages and plate velocities over the whole Phanerozoic. We speculate that the decreasing trend reflects the global cooling of the Earth system. Additionally, the parallel between the tectonic activity and CO2 together with the extension of glaciations confirms the generally accepted idea of a primary control of CO2 on climate and highlights the link between plate tectonics and CO2 in a time scale greater than 107 yr. Last, the wide variations observed in the reconstructed sea-floor production rates are in contradiction with the steady-state model hypothesized by some.

  3. The Tectonic Potentials of Concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Egholm Pedersen, Ole


    Contemporary techniques for concrete casting in an architectural context are challenged by demands of increased individualization in our built environment, reductions in the use of resources and waste generation. In recent years, new production technologies and strategies that break...... of geometric forms in concrete. The former was referred to as mould tectonics, the latter concrete tectonics. A study of the concepts of ‘New Production Philosophy’, ‘Mass-customization’, and Digital Tectonics is presented as a basis for investigating their use in concrete casting. Digital modelling...... plastic in which precision is maintained. The ability to reuse the PETG moulds makes the technique a zero waste production. In general it was concluded that problems with existing techniques relate to production time, surface quality and precision and are caused by the use of mould fabrication technique...

  4. Time scale interaction in low-order climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veen, Lennaert van


    Over the last decades, the study of climate variability has attracted ample attention. The observation of structural climatic change has led to questions about the causes and the mechanisms involved. The task to understand interactions in the complex climate system is particularly di±cult because of

  5. Harvest time of Cryptomeria japonica seeds depending on climate factors (United States)

    Son, Seog-Gu; Kim, Hyo-Jeong; Kim, Chang-Soo; Byun, Kwang-Ok


    Sound seeds should have good germination rates and seed germination can be influenced by several factors. Seed picking time is regarded as one of the necessary elements to obtain sound seeds. From a clonal seed orchard of Cryptomeria japonica located in southern part of Korean peninsular, cones were picked about every 10 days from 30th of July 2005 to 30th of October in both 2005 and 2006. We have also analyzed the effects of climatic factors about two consecutive years on seed productivity. From the picked cones, seeds were collected and these germination ability, seed size and embryo shapes were investigated according to cone picking time. The 1,000-seed weight picked on 18th of August was 3.3 g and 5.3 g on 30th of September 2005and 2006. The size of seeds picked from 18th of August to 30th of September increased from 19.3 mm to 21.3 mm in length and from 15.8 mm to 18.5 mm in width. Depending on picking time, various shapes of embryos, including embryos with liquid material, jellied material and fully matured ones were observed. Germination aspects also varied throughout the test days. About two weeks after seeding in a glass petri-dish, germinal apparatuses appeared from each test seed sets which had been picked from after 10 August 2005 and 10 August 2006. The germination rates started from 10.7% from seeds picked 20 August 2006. Average germination rate in 2005 was 18.3 and 19.6 in 2006. In 2005, the highest germination rate was 34.3% from seeds picked on the 30th of September. In 2006, the highest germination rate was 31.7% for seeds picked at the same date as the 2005 seeds. After September, the highest germination rate for picked seeds decreased in both 2005 and 2006. Among the climatic factors, monthly sum of temperature and of precipitation were the main factors for maturation of C. japonica seeds. The results implied that the best cone picking time for the Korean C. japonica seed orchard to be around the end of September.

  6. The tectonics of Mercury

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melosh, H.J.; Mckinnon, W.B.


    The probable tectonic history of Mercury and the relative sequence of events are discussed on the basis of data collected by the Mariner-10 spacecraft. Results indicate that Mercury's tectonic activity was confined to its early history; its endogenic activity was principally due to a small change in the shape of its lithosphere, caused by tidal despinning, and a small change in area caused by shrinkage due to cooling. Exogenic processes, in particular the impact activity, have produced more abundant tectonic features. Many features associated with the Caloris basin are due to loading of Mercury's thick lithosphere by extrusive lavas or subsidence due to magma withdrawal. It is emphasized that tectonic features observed on Mercury yield insight into the earliest tectonic events on planets like Mars and, perhaps, the earth, where subsequent events obscured or erased the most ancient tectonic records

  7. The Tectonic Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Anne Marie Due

    has the consequence that it is difficult to create architecture where the technical concerns are an inherent part of the architectural expression. The aim of the thesis is to discuss the role of digital tools in overcoming the distance between the professional specializations and thereby support...... a tectonic practice. The project develops a framework to understand the role of digital tools in the tectonic practice from and discusses how and in which areas the tectonic practice could become supported by digital tools....

  8. Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaffer, Gary; Huber, Matthew; Rondanelli, Roberto


    Future global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will depend on climate feedbacks, the effect of which is expressed by climate sensitivity, the warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 content. It is not clear how feedbacks, sensitivity, and temperature will evolve in our warming...... world, but past warming events may provide insight. Here we employ paleoreconstructions and new climate-carbon model simulations in a novel framework to explore a wide scenario range for the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) carbon release and global warming event 55.8Ma ago, a possible future...... indicates climate sensitivity increase with global warming....

  9. Formulating and testing a method for perturbing precipitation time series to reflect anticipated climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Georgiadis, Stylianos; Gregersen, Ida Bülow


    Urban water infrastructure has very long planning horizons, and planning is thus very dependent on reliable estimates of the impacts of climate change. Many urban water systems are designed using time series with a high temporal resolution. To assess the impact of climate change on these systems......, similarly high-resolution precipitation time series for future climate are necessary. Climate models cannot at their current resolutions provide these time series at the relevant scales. Known methods for stochastic downscaling of climate change to urban hydrological scales have known shortcomings...... in constructing realistic climate-changed precipitation time series at the sub-hourly scale. In the present study we present a deterministic methodology to perturb historical precipitation time series at the minute scale to reflect non-linear expectations to climate change. The methodology shows good skill...

  10. Provenance, tectonics and palaeoclimate of Proterozoic Chandarpur ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    climatic condition. The provenance analysis revealed that the Chandarpur clastics were derived from granites and granite–gneisses of a continental block tectonic provenance. Petrographic stud- ies further indicate that high grade metamorphic rocks did not make any perceptible contribution to the Chandarpur system.

  11. Geomorphological features of active tectonics and ongoing ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    floods, cloud-bursts and earthquakes. Slopes in the region were formed by combining the effect of geomorphic, tectonic and climatic process and the landslides frequently occurring during the monsoon. The highly deformed, fractured and shattered rocks of Great Himalaya and the prox- imity of active thrusts and fault zones ...

  12. Education and Climate Change: Living and Learning in Interesting Times (United States)

    Kagawa, Fumiyo, Ed.; Selby, David, Ed.


    There is widespread consensus in the international scientific community that climate change is happening and that abrupt and irreversible impacts are already set in motion. What part does education have to play in helping alleviate rampant climate change and in mitigating its worst effects? In this volume, contributors review and reflect upon…

  13. Tectonics and metallogenic provinces (United States)

    Guild, P.W.


    Various theories have been advanced to explain the well-known uneven distribution of metals and ore-deposit types in space and time. Primordial differences in the mantle, preferential concentration of elements in the crust, the prevalence of ore-forming processes at certain times and (or) places, and combinations of one or several of these factors have all been called upon to account for the "metallogenic provinces," which can be defined loosely as regions containing similar deposits of one or a group of metals or minerals. Because many, perhaps most, provinces have complex, multistage origins, the relative importance of inheritance vs. process is still controversial. In recent years the geographic relationship of many geologically young provinces to present-day plate-tectonic positions (accreting or consuming margins, intraplate structures, etc.) has been widely recognized, and the presumption is strong that older provinces had similar relationships to former plates. As most ore deposits resulted from a favorable conjunction of geological processes that are no longer operative, elucidation of their genesis requires reconstruction of the geologic history of the province, with particular emphasis on events coeval with mineralization. Tectonic analysis is an important aspect of this reconstruction; data from orbiting satellites have contributed greatly to this analysis, as the voluminous literature of the past decade testifies. Both the synoptic view of large areas and the ability to emphasize faint contrasts have revealed linear, curvilinear, and circular features not previously recognized from field studies. Some of these undoubtedly reflect basement structures that have contributed to the development, or limit the extent, of metallogenic provinces. Their recognition and delineation will be increasingly valuable to the assessment of resources available and as guides to exploration for the ores needed by future generations. ?? 1983.

  14. Plant-climate interactions over historical and geological time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cowling, Sharon A.


    Data-model comparisons are a useful approach to elucidating the relative influence of past climate change on vegetation dynamics over various spatial (global, regional, stand) and temporal (historical, geological) scales. Comparisons between changes in tree species abundance reconstructed from pollen and simulated from a forest gap model, for example, indicate that based solely on climate change over the past 1500 years, southern Scandinavian forests should be co-dominated by Tilia and Fagus. Picea has begun to more closely track changes in climate since 1000 years ago, however in the last few centuries the realised range limit of Picea has overshot the potential limit because of planting and establishment during favourable years. Not only can palaeodata-model comparisons provide practical information for forest managers, but they can help further our appreciation of the climatic catalysts underlying evolution of terrestrial ecosystems. Past changes in atmospheric CO 2 , independently or in combination with changes in climate, may have altered vegetation form and function such that palaeoplant assemblages were much different than today, speciation may have been promoted via biological vicariance, and some species may have been pushed to extinction. A thorough understanding of modern plant-climate interactions requires consideration of how past climate and atmospheric CO 2 events could have shaped physiological, biochemical and biophysical functioning of existing vegetation

  15. Plant-climate interactions over historical and geological time

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cowling, Sharon A.


    Data-model comparisons are a useful approach to elucidating the relative influence of past climate change on vegetation dynamics over various spatial (global, regional, stand) and temporal (historical, geological) scales. Comparisons between changes in tree species abundance reconstructed from pollen and simulated from a forest gap model, for example, indicate that based solely on climate change over the past 1500 years, southern Scandinavian forests should be co-dominated by Tilia and Fagus. Picea has begun to more closely track changes in climate since 1000 years ago, however in the last few centuries the realised range limit of Picea has overshot the potential limit because of planting and establishment during favourable years. Not only can palaeodata-model comparisons provide practical information for forest managers, but they can help further our appreciation of the climatic catalysts underlying evolution of terrestrial ecosystems. Past changes in atmospheric CO{sub 2}, independently or in combination with changes in climate, may have altered vegetation form and function such that palaeoplant assemblages were much different than today, speciation may have been promoted via biological vicariance, and some species may have been pushed to extinction. A thorough understanding of modern plant-climate interactions requires consideration of how past climate and atmospheric CO{sub 2} events could have shaped physiological, biochemical and biophysical functioning of existing vegetation.

  16. Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming:Climate Sensitivity Rise With Warming


    Shaffer, Gary; Huber, Matthew; Rondanelli, Roberto; Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke


    Future global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will depend on climate feedbacks, the effect of which is expressed by climate sensitivity, the warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 content. It is not clear how feedbacks, sensitivity, and temperature will evolve in our warming world, but past warming events may provide insight. Here we employ paleoreconstructions and new climate-carbon model simulations in a novel framework to explore a wide scenario range for the Paleoce...

  17. Two hundred thirty years of relative sea level changes due to climate and megathrust tectonics recorded in coral microatolls of Martinique (French West Indies) (United States)

    Weil-Accardo, Jennifer; Feuillet, Nathalie; Jacques, Eric; Deschamps, Pierre; Beauducel, François; Cabioch, Guy; Tapponnier, Paul; Saurel, Jean-Marie; Galetzka, John


    We sampled six coral microatolls that recorded the relative sea level changes over the last 230 years east of Martinique, on fringing reefs in protected bays. The microatolls are cup-shaped, which is characteristic of corals that have been experiencing submergence. X-ray analysis of coral slices and reconstructions of the highest level of survival (HLS) curves show that they have submerged at rates of a few millimeters per year. Their morphology reveals changes in submergence rate around 1829 ± 11, 1895, and 1950. Tide gauges available in the region indicate a regional sea level rise at a constant mean rate of 1.1 ± 0.8 mm/yr, which contrasts with our coral record, implying additional tectonic subsidence. Comparing our coral morphology with that of synthetic corals generated with Matlab by using the Key West tide gauge record (Florida), we show that their growth was controlled by tectonics and that a sudden relative sea level increase drowned them around 1950. Simple elastic models show that this sudden submergence probably occurred during the 21 May 1946 earthquake, which ruptured the plate interface in front of Martinique, in the mantle wedge, in an area of sustained seismic activity. The 1839 M8+ earthquake probably occurred in the same area. Long-term subsidence of microatolls indicates that this deep portion of the megathrust is probably locked down to 60 km depth during the interseismic period. Our oldest coral recorded a long-lasting period (50 years) of stable relative sea level after the 1839 earthquake, indicating that transient interseismic strain rate variations may occur in the Lesser Antilles.

  18. Continental tectonics and continental kinetics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allegre, C.J.; Jaupart, C.; Paris-7 Univ., 75


    We present a model of continental growth which combines the results of geochemical studies and tectonic ideas about the evolution of continents through geological time. The process of continental growth is mainly controlled by surface phenomena. Continental material is extracted from the mantle along subduction zones at the periphery of oceans, and is destroyed in collision zones where it is remobilized and made available for subduction. We derive an equation for S, the portion of the Earth's surface occupied by continents, which reads as follows: dS/dt=a . √(1-S)-b . S. Coefficients a and b depend on the geometry of plates, on their number and on their velocities. We assume that they decrease exponentially with time with the same time-scale α. This model satisfies both geochemical and tectonic constraints, and allows the integration of several current observations in a single framework. (orig.)

  19. Climate time series analysis classical statistical and bootstrap methods

    CERN Document Server

    Mudelsee, Manfred


    This book presents bootstrap resampling as a computationally intensive method able to meet the challenges posed by the complexities of analysing climate data. It shows how the bootstrap performs reliably in the most important statistical estimation techniques.

  20. The sociological imagination in a time of climate change (United States)

    Norgaard, Kari Marie


    Despite rising calls for social science knowledge in the face of climate change, too few sociologists have been engaged in the conversations about how we have arrived at such perilous climatic circumstances, or how society can change course. With its attention to the interactive dimensions of social order between individuals, social norms, cultural systems and political economy, the discipline of sociology is uniquely positioned to be an important leader in this conversation. In this paper I suggest that in order to understand and respond to climate change we need two kinds of imagination: 1) to see the relationships between human actions and their impacts on earth's biophysical system (ecological imagination) and 2) to see the relationships within society that make up this environmentally damaging social structure (sociological imagination). The scientific community has made good progress in developing our ecological imagination but still need to develop a sociological imagination. The application of a sociological imagination allows for a powerfully reframing of four key problems in the current interdisciplinary conversation on climate change: why climate change is happening, how we are being impacted, why we have failed to successfully respond so far, and how we might be able to effectively do so. I visit each of these four questions describing the current understanding and show the importance of the sociological imagination and other insights from the field of sociology. I close with reflections on current limitations in sociology's potential to engage climate change and the Anthropocene.

  1. Simulated variations of eolian dust from inner Asian deserts at the mid-Pliocene, last glacial maximum, and present day: contributions from the regional tectonic uplift and global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shi, Zhengguo; Liu, Xiaodong; An, Zhisheng [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Loess Quaternary Geology (SKLLQG), Institute of Earth Environment, Xi' an (China); Yi, Bingqi; Yang, Ping [Texas A and M University, College Station, TX (United States); Mahowald, Natalie [Cornell University, Ithaca, NY (United States)


    Northern Tibetan Plateau uplift and global climate change are regarded as two important factors responsible for a remarkable increase in dust concentration originating from inner Asian deserts during the Pliocene-Pleistocene period. Dust cycles during the mid-Pliocene, last glacial maximum (LGM), and present day are simulated with a global climate model, based on reconstructed dust source scenarios, to evaluate the relative contributions of the two factors to the increment of dust sedimentation fluxes. In the focused downwind regions of the Chinese Loess Plateau/North Pacific, the model generally produces a light eolian dust mass accumulation rate (MAR) of 7.1/0.28 g/cm{sup 2}/kyr during the mid-Pliocene, a heavier MAR of 11.6/0.87 g/cm{sup 2}/kyr at present, and the heaviest MAR of 24.5/1.15 g/cm{sup 2}/kyr during the LGM. Our results are in good agreement with marine and terrestrial observations. These MAR increases can be attributed to both regional tectonic uplift and global climate change. Comparatively, the climatic factors, including the ice sheet and sea surface temperature changes, have modulated the regional surface wind field and controlled the intensity of sedimentation flux over the Loess Plateau. The impact of the Tibetan Plateau uplift, which increased the areas of inland deserts, is more important over the North Pacific. The dust MAR has been widely used in previous studies as an indicator of inland Asian aridity; however, based on the present results, the interpretation needs to be considered with greater caution that the MAR is actually not only controlled by the source areas but the surface wind velocity. (orig.)

  2. A New Framework For The Evolution of Terrestrial Planets: Bi-stability, Stochastic Effects, and the Non-Uniqueness of Tectonic States (United States)

    Weller, M. B.; Lenardic, A.


    Of all the Solar System bodies, the Earth is the only one for which significant observation and constraints are accessible such that they can be used to discriminate between competing models of Earth's tectonic evolution. Therefore, it is a natural tendency to use these observations to inform more general models of planetary evolution. Yet, our understating of Earth's evolution is far from complete. Geodynamic and geochemical evidence suggests that plate tectonics may not have operated on the early Earth, with both the timing of its onset and the length of its activity far from certain. In recent years, the potential of tectonic bi-stability (multiple stable, energetically allowed solutions) has been shown to be dynamically viable, both from analytical analysis and through numeric experiments in two and three dimensions. The indication is that multiple tectonic modes may operate on a single planetary body at different times within its temporal evolution. Further, there exists the potential that feedback mechanisms between the internal dynamics and surface processes (e.g., surface temperature changes driven by long term climate evolution), acting at different thermal evolution times, can cause terrestrial worlds to alternate between multiple tectonic states over giga-year timescales. Implied here is that terrestrial planets have the potential to migrate through tectonic regimes at similar `thermal evolutionary times' - points were planets have a similar bulk mantle temperature and energies -, but at very different `temporal times' - time since planetary formation. It can then be shown that identical planets at similar stages of their evolution may exhibit different tectonic regimes due to random fluctuations. A new framework of planetary evolution that moves toward probabilistic arguments based on general physical principals, as opposed to particular rheologies, and incorporates the potential of tectonic regime transitions and multiple tectonics states being viable

  3. From P-T-age to secular change and global tectonic regimes (or Essene in reverse - from granulites to blueschists and eclogites over time) (United States)

    Brown, M.


    Essene's contributions began pre-plate tectonics more than 40 years ago; they range from mineralogy to tectonics, from experiments and thermobarometry to elements and isotopes, and from the Phanerozoic to the Precambrian. Eric is a true polymath! Assessing the P-T conditions and age distribution of crustal metamorphism is an important step in evaluating secular change in tectonic regimes and geodynamics. In general, Archean rocks exhibit moderate-P - moderate-to-high-T facies series metamorphism (greenstone belts and granulite terranes); neither blueschists nor any record of deep continental subduction and return are documented and only one example of granulite facies ultrahigh-temperature metamorphism is reported. Granulite facies ultrahigh temperature metamorphism (G-UHTM) is documented in the rock record predominantly from Neoarchean to Cambrian, although G-UHTM facies series rocks may be inferred at depth in younger orogenic systems. The first occurrence of G-UHTM in the rock record signifies a change in geodynamics that generated transient sites of very high heat flow. Many G-UHTM belts may have developed in settings analogous to modern continental backarcs. On a warmer Earth, the formation and breakup of supercontinents, particularly by extroversion, which involved destruction of ocean basins floored by thinner lithosphere, may have generated hotter continental backarcs than those around the modern Pacific rim. Medium-temperature eclogite - high-pressure granulite metamorphism (E-HPGM) also is first recognized in the Neoarchean rock record, and occurs at intervals throughout the Proterozoic and Paleozoic rock record. E- HPGM belts are complementary to G-UHTM belts, and are generally inferred to record subduction-to-collision orogenesis. Blueschists become evident in the Neoproterozoic rock record; lawsonite blueschists and eclogites (high-pressure metamorphism, HPM), and ultrahigh pressure metamorphism (UHPM) characterized by coesite or diamond are

  4. Time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change. (United States)

    Wu, Donghai; Zhao, Xiang; Liang, Shunlin; Zhou, Tao; Huang, Kaicheng; Tang, Bijian; Zhao, Wenqian


    Climate conditions significantly affect vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. Due to the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems, the vegetation responses to climate vary considerably with the diverse spatial patterns and the time-lag effects, which are the most important mechanism of climate-vegetation interactive effects. Extensive studies focused on large-scale vegetation-climate interactions use the simultaneous meteorological and vegetation indicators to develop models; however, the time-lag effects are less considered, which tends to increase uncertainty. In this study, we aim to quantitatively determine the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors using the GIMMS3g NDVI time series and the CRU temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation datasets. First, this study analyzed the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors. Then, a multiple linear regression model and partial correlation model were established to statistically analyze the roles of different climatic factors on vegetation responses, from which the primary climate-driving factors for different vegetation types were determined. The results showed that (i) both the time-lag effects of the vegetation responses and the major climate-driving factors that significantly affect vegetation growth varied significantly at the global scale, which was related to the diverse vegetation and climate characteristics; (ii) regarding the time-lag effects, the climatic factors explained 64% variation of the global vegetation growth, which was 11% relatively higher than the model ignoring the time-lag effects; (iii) for the area with a significant change trend (for the period 1982-2008) in the global GIMMS3g NDVI (P effects is quite important for better predicting and evaluating the vegetation dynamics under the background of global climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Style and timing of salt tectonics in the Dniepr-Donets Basin (Ukraine): implications for triggering and driving mechanisms of salt movement in sedimentary basins.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stovba, S.M.; Stephenson, R.A.


    The Ukrainian Dniepr-Donets Basin (DDB) is a Late Palaeozoic intracratonic rift basin, with sedimentary thicknesses up to 19 km, displaying the effects of salt tectonics during its entire history of formation, from Late Devonian rifting to the Tertiary. Hundreds of concordant and discordant salt

  6. Tectonic Vocabulary & Materialization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvejsel, Marie Frier; Beim, Anne; Bundgaard, Charlotte


    By referring to the fundamental question of how we unite aesthetics and technology – tectonic theory is necessarily a focal point in the development of the architectural discipline. However, a critical reconsideration of the role of tectonic theory seems necessary when facing the present everyday...... architectural practice. In this matter the paper focuses on the need to juxtapose theoretical studies, to bring the present vocabulary of the tectonic further, as well as to spur further practical experiments enabling theory to materialize in the everyday of the current practice....

  7. Forestry in times of climatic change. From adaptation to climate protection; Forstwirtschaft in Zeiten des Klimawandels. Von Anpassung bis Klimaschutz

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)



    The notification 30/2010 of the Thuringian State Institute for Forest, Hunting and Fishing (Gotha, Federal Republic of Germany) reports on the forest management in times of the climatic changes. This notification consists of the following contributions: (1) Perception of the climatic change by private forest owners - A social-scientific investigation (Stefanie Rimkus); (2) Fundamentals for the designation of the inventory destination types adapted to climatic change for Thuringia (Nico Frischbier); (3) Recommendations of tree species adapted to climatic change for the forestry practice in Thuringia (Wolfgang Arenhoevel); (4) Development of carbon storage in the state-owned forest Thuringia (Thomas Wutzler); (5) The carbon inventories in copper beech forests (Fagus Sylvatica L.) under the influence of different silvicultural treatment (Martina Mund); (6) Wood products for the climate protection - The state of the art in Thuringia (Ingolf Profft); (7) HABIT-CHANGE - 'Adaptive management of climate-induced changes of habitat diversity in protected areas' (Nico Frischbier); (8) Cultivation experiences of non-indigenous tree species (Wolfgang Ahrenhoevel); (9) Registration of damages of the storm 'Xynthia' in the forestry office Bad Salzungen by means of ANDROMEDA {sup registered} data (Herbert Sagischewski); (10) - The open internet portal on forest, wood and climate (Ingolf Profft).

  8. Interaction of ice sheets and climate on geological time scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stap, L.B.


    Since the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition (~34 Myr ago), land ice plays a crucial role in Earth’s climate. Through the ice-albedo and surface-height-temperature feedbacks, land ice variability strengthens atmospheric temperature changes induced by orbital and

  9. A linear projection for the timing of unprecedented climate in Korea (United States)

    Shin, Ho-Jeong; Jang, Chan Joo; Chung, Il-Ung


    Recently we have had abnormal weather events worldwide that are attributed by climate scientists to the global warming induced by human activities. If the global warming continues in the future and such events occur more frequently and someday become normal, we will have an unprecedented climate. This study intends to answer when we will have an unprecedented warm climate, focusing more on the regional characteristics of the timing of unprecedented climate. Using an in-situ observational data from weather stations of annual-mean surface air temperature in Korea from 1973 to 2015, we estimate a timing of unprecedented climate with a linear regression method. Based on the in-situ data with statistically significant warming trends at 95% confidence level, an unprecedented climate in Korea is projected to occur first in Cheongju by 2043 and last in Haenam by 2168. This 125-year gap in the timing indicates that a regional difference in timing of unprecedented climate is considerably large in Korea. Despite the high sensitivity of linear estimation to the data period and resolution, our findings on the large regional difference in timing of unprecedented climate can give an insight into making policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation, not only for the central government but for provincial governments.

  10. Tectonic and climatic controls on seafloor sedimentary processes from analysis of multi-beam sonar and multi-channel seismic data collected during the Galicia 3D seismic experiment. (United States)

    Gibson, J. C.; Shillington, D. J.; Sawyer, D. S.; Morgan, J.; Ranero, C. R.; Reston, T. J.; Dash, R. K.; Payne, B. A.


    Due to a very low sedimentation rate, the deep Galicia Basin provides a unique opportunity to gain insight into the control by recent tectonic and/or climatic processes on deep-sea sediment delivery. In order to study the sediment delivery system we use morphological and geophysical attributes drawn from multi-beam (MB) sonar bathymetry/backscatter data supplemented with 3D multi-channel seismic (MCS) surface seismic attributes collected using R/V Marcus G. Langseth during the Galicia 3D seismic experiment (2013). We observe a submarine canyon that is controlled by rift-block geometry and connected to the Galicia Bank. Relatively low reflectivity is associated with the canyon, but a large ( 125 km2) tongue-shaped area of high reflectively is seen in the deep abyssal plain seaward of the canyon mouth. This suggests that processes such as flow stripping are taking place resulting in relatively coarse grain deposition in the basin. This interpretation is further supported by the presence of variable wavelength (400m-5km) sediment waves and discrete linear bands of high reflectivity. Spectral analysis of the sediment waves reveals short-wavelength overprinting of relatively long-wavelength features suggesting a relatively recent shift in the flow regime. The spectrums also provide quantitative measurement of the wavelength, amplitude, and phase of the reflectivity relative to the bathymetry from which we make estimations as to grain size and flow velocity. Additionally, attributes drawn from MB (e.g., slope, aspect) and MCS (e.g., instantaneous frequency) spanning the sediment wave field are used for multivariate least squares analysis of the spatial distribution of reflectivity in respect to the morphology of the sediment waves, which further supports the spectral analysis. The large tongue shaped high reflectivity feature extending 30km into the basin is analyzed in respect to geometry and variable reflectivity. The results of the above analyses along with

  11. Climate conditions in Sweden in a 100,000-year time perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjellstroem, Erik; Strandberg, Gustav; Brandefelt, Jenny; Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Smith, Ben; Wohlfarth, Barbara


    This report presents results from a project devoted to describing the climatic extremes within which the climate in Fennoscandia may vary over a 100,000 year time span. Based on forcing conditions which have yielded extreme conditions during the last glacial-interglacial cycle, as well as possible future conditions following continued anthropogenic emissions, projections of climate conditions have been made with climate models. Three different periods have been studied; i) a stadial within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) during the last glacial cycle, representing a cold period with a relatively small ice sheet covering parts of Fennoscandia, ii) the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with an extensive ice sheet covering large parts of northern Europe and iii) a possible future period in a climate warmer than today. The future case is characterised by high greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and a complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet. The climate modelling involved the use of a global climate model (GCM) for producing boundary conditions that were used by a regional climate model (RCM). The regional model produced detailed information on climate variables like near-surface air temperature and precipitation over Europe. These climate variables were subsequently used to force a vegetation model that produced a vegetation cover over Europe, consistent with the simulated regional climate. In a final step, the new vegetation cover from the vegetation model was used in the regional climate model to produce the final regional climate. For the studied periods, data on relevant climate parameters have been extracted from the regional model for the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas on the Swedish east coast and the Olkiluoto region on the west coast of Finland. Due to computational constraints, the modelling efforts include only one forcing scenario per time period. As there is a large degree of uncertainty in the choice of an appropriate forcing scenario, we perform

  12. Climate conditions in Sweden in a 100,000-year time perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kjellstroem, Erik; Strandberg, Gustav (Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrkoeping (Sweden)); Brandefelt, Jenny (Dept. of Mechanics, Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)); Naeslund, Jens-Ove (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Smith, Ben (Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden)); Wohlfarth, Barbara (Dept. of Geology and Geochemistry, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden))


    This report presents results from a project devoted to describing the climatic extremes within which the climate in Fennoscandia may vary over a 100,000 year time span. Based on forcing conditions which have yielded extreme conditions during the last glacial-interglacial cycle, as well as possible future conditions following continued anthropogenic emissions, projections of climate conditions have been made with climate models. Three different periods have been studied; i) a stadial within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) during the last glacial cycle, representing a cold period with a relatively small ice sheet covering parts of Fennoscandia, ii) the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with an extensive ice sheet covering large parts of northern Europe and iii) a possible future period in a climate warmer than today. The future case is characterised by high greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and a complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet. The climate modelling involved the use of a global climate model (GCM) for producing boundary conditions that were used by a regional climate model (RCM). The regional model produced detailed information on climate variables like near-surface air temperature and precipitation over Europe. These climate variables were subsequently used to force a vegetation model that produced a vegetation cover over Europe, consistent with the simulated regional climate. In a final step, the new vegetation cover from the vegetation model was used in the regional climate model to produce the final regional climate. For the studied periods, data on relevant climate parameters have been extracted from the regional model for the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas on the Swedish east coast and the Olkiluoto region on the west coast of Finland. Due to computational constraints, the modelling efforts include only one forcing scenario per time period. As there is a large degree of uncertainty in the choice of an appropriate forcing scenario, we perform

  13. Gaia Through Time: The Coevolution of Life and Climate (United States)

    Kasting, J. F.; Haqq-Misra, J.


    Earth has the peculiar property of remaining continuously habitable in spite of severe climate change throughout its 4.6 billion year (Ga) history. Life on this planet also has a resilient history, originating soon after Earth cooled and surviving many threats to its existence. In the anoxic Archean (2.8 Ga), the biological activity of methanogens resulted in greenhouse warming by methane and other hydrocarbons to counteract the 20% luminosity reduction from the faint young Sun, leading to the photochemical production of a shielding stratospheric organic haze. A negative feedback loop between methanogen activity and haze thickness maintained warm surface temperatures in the late Archean. The rise of atmospheric oxygen (2.4 Ga) following growth in photosynthesis by cyanobacteria triggered a global glaciation and may have been the most devastating climate change in Earth's history, yet the biosphere recovered to a richly oxic environment in which breathable life became possible. The adaptation of life to a range of ecological niche space, including extreme environments, has contributed to the persistence of life through mass extinctions, most significantly the Permian-Triassic extinction ~250 million years ago (Ma) when up to 96% of marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrates vanished. Abrupt climate change has also challenged the survival of life, including the Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth episode (~650 Ma) where evidence from glacial deposits suggests the tropical oceans froze over. During this period life may have thrived in a manner analogous to the Antarctic dry valleys, where sufficient sunlight penetrates the ice to allow photosynthesis. Present day climate change is marked by human influence on atmospheric composition and widespread loss of biodiversity, but even the most severe projected scenarios fall short of the global ecological catastrophes experienced in Earth's past--events from which life has always recovered. The challenge of global warming

  14. Time for Climate Change: Leadership, IT Climate, and their Impact on Organizational Performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wunderlich, Nico; Beck, Roman


    Information systems (IS) have become essential for operating firms successfully. How to align business and information technology (IT) executives to increase organizational output has been widely discussed in literature. This research focusses on pre-requisites and consequences of a positive IT c...... groups, and can confirm organization wide firm IS knowledge as a strategically important resource to achieve organizational performance.......Information systems (IS) have become essential for operating firms successfully. How to align business and information technology (IT) executives to increase organizational output has been widely discussed in literature. This research focusses on pre-requisites and consequences of a positive...... IT climate in organizations where the need for deep IT and business knowledge is constantly increasing. We shed light on how organizational leaders, both from business and IT, influence a positive organizational IT climate by IT leadership and subsequently, how an organizational IT climate affects strategic...

  15. Time-series analysis of climatologic measurements: a method to distinguish future climatic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duband, D.


    Time-series analysis of climatic parameters as air temperature, rivers flow rate, lakes or seas level is an indispensable basis to detect a possible significant climatic change. These observations, when they are carefully analyzed and criticized, constitute the necessary reference for testing and validation numerical climatic models which try to simulate the physical and dynamical process of the ocean-atmosphere couple, taking continents into account. 32 refs., 13 figs

  16. Low-grade metamorphism in the eastern Southern Alps: Distribution, conditions, timing and implications for the tectonics of the Alps and NW Dinarides (United States)

    Neubauer, Franz; Heberer, Bianca; Genser, Johann; Friedl, Getrude


    main body of the Alpine orogen exposed north of the E-trending Periadriatic fault. In previous interpretations, the eastern Southalpine unit was considered to differ in many respects from Alpine units north of the Periadriatic fault including (1) no Alpine metamorphic overprint and, therefore, (2) also no Alpine ductile deformation in contrast to amphibolite- and even eclogite- grade metamorphism (ca. 100 - 85 Ma) in Austroalpine units north of the fault, and by (3) S- to SW-, Adria-directed vergency of the deformation of mostly Eocene to Neogene age in contrast to all units basically directed to the north and northwest, towards the stable European plate. The Southalpine unit is considered as back-thrust of the Middle-Late Eocene plate collision between Stable Europe and the Alpine thrust wedge (Doglioni & Bosellini, 1987). The new data from the eastern part of the Southalpine unit challenge this view and imply a steadily but slowly growing Adria-directed thrust wedge between Maastrichtian and Early Eocene times. Acknowledement: The work has been supported by the Austrian Science Fund (project no. 22,110). References Borojević Šoštarić, S. Neubauer, F., Handler, R., Palinkaš, L. A., 2012. Variscan vs. Alpine tectonothermal events in NW-Dinarides: constraints from 40Ar/39Ar dating. Geologica Carpathica, 63, 441-452. Doglioni, C., Bosellini, A., 1987. Eoalpine and mesoalpine tectonics in the Southern Alps. Geologische Rundschaus, 76, 735-754. Feijth, J., 2002. Paleozoic and Mesozoic tectonometamorphic development and geochronology of the Orobic chain (Southern Alps, Lombardy, Italy). PhD thesis, Faculty of Engineering and Applied Geosciences, Technical University of Berlin, 136 p. Ilić, A., Neubauer, F., Handler, R. (submitted). Formation of a structural dome due to transpression: The Lim unit in Central Dinarides. Journal of Structural Geology. Läufer, A.L., Frisch, W., Steinitz, G., Loeschke, J., 1997. Exhumed fault-bounded Alpine blocks along the Periadriatic

  17. Holocene construction and evolution of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta: the influence of climate, eustasy, and tectonics on stratigraphic architecture and fluvial dynamics (United States)

    Sincavage, R.; Goodbred, S. L., Jr.; Pickering, J.; Wilson, C.; Patrick, M. G.; Akhter, S. H.; Seeber, L.; Paola, C.; Jean-Louis, G.; Grall, C.


    The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta (GBMD), an archetypal tidally-influenced deltaic margin, has been the subject of several multi-national, multi-institutional, and interdisciplinary field studies over the past several years, resulting in an unprecedented density of data coverage for stratigraphy, hydrodynamics, and tectonics on a scale previously only found on well-studied delta systems of other types (e.g., Nile, Mississippi, Rhine-Meuse). Using a suite of geochemical, geophysical, and lithologic data extracted from a network of over 400 shallow (Basin has been illuminated. Provenance of pre- to early-Holocene sediments suggests the position of the Brahmaputra River was once west of its modern location, following a course along the eastern edge of the Tista Fan and west of the modern confluence with the Ganges. Construction of the modern delta, consisting of a thick (up to 80 m) succession of fluvial and deltaic sediments, was initiated by an intensified summer monsoon, coincident with accommodation generated by rapid sea-level rise following the Younger-Dryas. Sediment delivery has been focused along three pathways associated with antecedent topography inherited from Pleistocene lowstands. Stacked channel sands are the predominant facies within the upper delta, grading to isolated sand lenses in the distal reaches of Sylhet Basin, indicative of a shift from a highly mobile braidbelt to a less mobile distributary system as bedload is extracted to deposition. Episodic avulsions of the Brahmaputra River into Sylhet Basin during the mid-Holocene have been documented using a robust radiocarbon geochronology. The volume of sediment preserved from these events is insufficient to account for the entire sediment budget based on estimates of modern discharge, likely a consequence of both a weakened mid-Holocene monsoon and bypass out of the basin. Rapid (up to 7 mm/yr) subsidence in Sylhet Basin has not acted as an attractor for channel steering during much of the

  18. Climate Change in the News: Allusions to the Catastrophe in Times of Calm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Horacio Lozano Ascencio


    Full Text Available Climate change has become a symbol of global risk society. It is one of the most discussed and agreed by the scientific community, however, between citizens, climate change does not achieve the same degree of consensus. The objects of study are the references to climate change in the news on Spanish television in "quiet times". The objective is to record information when there is no disaster or an international summit on climate change related. We analyze more than 200 pieces television in 2011 in national chains, regional and local perspectives emphasizing scientific, social, political and techniques from which addresses the issue. We conclude that treatment key information on climate change in "quiet times" are maintained as if at that time there were a catastrophe or an international summit.

  19. Climate scenarios for Olkiluoto on a time-scale of 120,000 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pimenoff, N.; Venaelaeinen, A.; Jaervinen, H. [Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki (Finland)


    Posiva Oy is planning to dispose of spent nuclear fuel in a repository, to be constructed at a depth of 400 m in the crystalline bedrock at Olkiluoto, Finland. Planning the storage requires careful consideration of many aspects, including an assessment of long-term repository safety. For estimating possible climate states at Olkiluoto on a time-scale of 120,000 years, we analyze climate simulations of an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (CLIMBER-2) coupled with an ice sheet model (SICOPOLIS). The simulations into the future clearly show that the onset of the next glaciation is strongly dependent on the Earth's orbital variations and the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration. It is evident that due to global warming, the climate of the next centuries will be warmer and wetter than at present. Most likely, due to global warming and low variations in the Earth's orbit around the sun, the present interglacial will last for at least the next 30,000 years. Further, the future simulations showed that the insolation minima on the Northern Hemisphere 50,000-60,000 and 90,000-100,000 years after the present hold a potential for the onset of the next glaciation. Hence, on a time-scale of 120,000 years, one must take into account climate periods lasting several thousand years having the following features: an interglacial climate, a periglacial climate, a climate with an ice sheet margin near Olkiluoto, a glacial climate with an ice sheet covering Olkiluoto, and a climate with Olkiluoto being depressed below sea level after glaciation due to isostatic depression. Due to the uncertainties related to the evolution of the future climate, it is recommended the simulations into the far future to be used only qualitatively. Quantitative information about glacial climate is achieved from the reconstructions and simulations of the past climate. (orig.)

  20. Climate scenarios for Olkiluoto on a time-scale of 120,000 years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pimenoff, N.; Venaelaeinen, A.; Jaervinen, H.


    Posiva Oy is planning to dispose of spent nuclear fuel in a repository, to be constructed at a depth of 400 m in the crystalline bedrock at Olkiluoto, Finland. Planning the storage requires careful consideration of many aspects, including an assessment of long-term repository safety. For estimating possible climate states at Olkiluoto on a time-scale of 120,000 years, we analyze climate simulations of an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (CLIMBER-2) coupled with an ice sheet model (SICOPOLIS). The simulations into the future clearly show that the onset of the next glaciation is strongly dependent on the Earth's orbital variations and the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. It is evident that due to global warming, the climate of the next centuries will be warmer and wetter than at present. Most likely, due to global warming and low variations in the Earth's orbit around the sun, the present interglacial will last for at least the next 30,000 years. Further, the future simulations showed that the insolation minima on the Northern Hemisphere 50,000-60,000 and 90,000-100,000 years after the present hold a potential for the onset of the next glaciation. Hence, on a time-scale of 120,000 years, one must take into account climate periods lasting several thousand years having the following features: an interglacial climate, a periglacial climate, a climate with an ice sheet margin near Olkiluoto, a glacial climate with an ice sheet covering Olkiluoto, and a climate with Olkiluoto being depressed below sea level after glaciation due to isostatic depression. Due to the uncertainties related to the evolution of the future climate, it is recommended the simulations into the far future to be used only qualitatively. Quantitative information about glacial climate is achieved from the reconstructions and simulations of the past climate. (orig.)

  1. Climate scenarios for Olkiluoto on a time-scale of 100,000 years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pimenoff, N.; Venaelaeinen, A.; Jaervinen, H.


    Posiva Oy is planning to dispose of spent nuclear fuel in a repository, to be constructed at a depth of 400 m in the crystalline bedrock at Olkiluoto, Finland. Planning the storage requires careful consideration of many aspects, including an assessment of long-term repository safety. For estimating possible climate states at Olkiluoto on a time-scale of 100,000 years, we analyze climate simulations of an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (CLIMBER-2) coupled with an ice sheet model (SICOPOLIS). The simulations into the future clearly show that the onset of the next glaciation is strongly dependent on the Earth's orbital variations and the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. It is evident that due to global warming, the climate of the next centuries will be warmer and wetter than at present. Most likely, due to global warming and low variations in the Earth's orbit around the sun, the present interglacial will last for at least the next 30,000 years. Further, the future simulations showed that the insolation minima on the Northern Hemisphere 50,000-60,000 and 90,000-100,000 years after the present hold a potential for the onset of the next glaciation. Hence, on a time-scale of 100,000 years, one must take into account climate periods lasting several thousand years having the following features: an interglacial climate, a periglacial climate, a climate with an ice sheet margin near Olkiluoto, a glacial climate with an ice sheet covering Olkiluoto, and a climate with Olkiluoto being depressed below sea level after glaciation due to isostatic depression. Due to the uncertainties related to the evolution of the future climate, it is recommended the simulations into the far future to be used only qualitatively. Quantitative information about glacial climate is achieved from the reconstructions and simulations of the past climate. (orig.)

  2. Tectonic Theory and Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frier, Marie; Fisker, Anna Marie; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning


    defined by Semper as a constructive precondition, a theory for developing a novel tectonic relation between home and system opens up. As a research result the paper suggests a practical spatial exploitation of the actual prefab construction, defining interiority not solely as a visual occupation......’ is an example of this sensuous interior transformation of a house into a home, a level of detailing which is, however, seldom represented in the prefabricated house. Consequently, this paper investigates whether interiority can be developed as a tectonic theory and design principle for uniting home and system......Since the first optimistic originally Modernist prefab visions were formulated there has been, and are still, challenges to be overcome in order to fulfill the increasing need for fast, precise and economically produced homes. The tectonic need to transform a home, into a system of joints...

  3. Transcultural Tectonic Connections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carter, Adrian


    This paper presents an understanding of Jørn Utzon, as one of the most profound exponents of a transcultural and tectonic approach to modern architecture in the late twentieth century. The paper will examine the sources of inspiration, intersections and connections in Utzon’s architecture; which...... of cloud formations over a Hawaiian beach, when Utzon was teaching at the University of Hawai’i at Manoa. It is this ability to make connections and translate ideas from one context to another with poetic architectural vision and tectonic integrity, that is at the heart of Utzon’s architecture Together...... with such original unrealised projects as the subterranean Silkeborg Art Museum, Utzon’s work embodies a visionary approach to architecture that is site specific and poetic, tectonic and humane; informed by a profound appreciation of nature and diversity of human cultures, as sources of inspiration and analogy...

  4. Future Arctic climate changes: Adaptation and mitigation time scales (United States)

    Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin; Walsh, John E.; Stroeve, Julienne C.


    The climate in the Arctic is changing faster than in midlatitudes. This is shown by increased temperatures, loss of summer sea ice, earlier snow melt, impacts on ecosystems, and increased economic access. Arctic sea ice volume has decreased by 75% since the 1980s. Long-lasting global anthropogenic forcing from carbon dioxide has increased over the previous decades and is anticipated to increase over the next decades. Temperature increases in response to greenhouse gases are amplified in the Arctic through feedback processes associated with shifts in albedo, ocean and land heat storage, and near-surface longwave radiation fluxes. Thus, for the next few decades out to 2040, continuing environmental changes in the Arctic are very likely, and the appropriate response is to plan for adaptation to these changes. For example, it is very likely that the Arctic Ocean will become seasonally nearly sea ice free before 2050 and possibly within a decade or two, which in turn will further increase Arctic temperatures, economic access, and ecological shifts. Mitigation becomes an important option to reduce potential Arctic impacts in the second half of the 21st century. Using the most recent set of climate model projections (CMIP5), multimodel mean temperature projections show an Arctic-wide end of century increase of +13°C in late fall and +5°C in late spring for a business-as-usual emission scenario (RCP8.5) in contrast to +7°C in late fall and +3°C in late spring if civilization follows a mitigation scenario (RCP4.5). Such temperature increases demonstrate the heightened sensitivity of the Arctic to greenhouse gas forcing.

  5. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Precipitation Time Series (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global precipitation time series provides time series charts showing observations of daily precipitation as well as accumulated precipitation compared to normal...

  6. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Temperature Time Series (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global temperature time series provides time series charts using station based observations of daily temperature. These charts provide information about the...

  7. A planetary perspective on Earth evolution: Lid Tectonics before Plate Tectonics (United States)

    Piper, John D. A.


    Plate Tectonics requires a specific range of thermal, fluid and compositional conditions before it will operate to mobilise planetary lithospheres. The response to interior heat dispersion ranges from mobile lids in constant motion able to generate zones of subduction and spreading (Plate Tectonics), through styles of Lid Tectonics expressed by stagnant lids punctured by volcanism, to lids alternating between static and mobile. The palaeomagnetic record through Earth history provides a test for tectonic style because a mobile Earth of multiple continents is recorded by diverse apparent polar wander paths, whilst Lid Tectonics is recorded by conformity to a single position. The former is difficult to isolate without extreme selection whereas the latter is a demanding requirement and easily recognised. In the event, the Precambrian palaeomagnetic database closely conforms to this latter property over very long periods of time (~ 2.7-2.2 Ga, 1.5-1.3 Ga and 0.75-0.6 Ga); intervening intervals are characterised by focussed loops compatible with episodes of true polar wander stimulated by disturbances to the planetary figure. Because of this singular property, the Precambrian palaeomagnetic record is highly effective in showing that a dominant Lid Tectonics operated throughout most of Earth history. A continental lid comprising at least 60% of the present continental area and volume had achieved quasi-integrity by 2.7 Ga. Reconfiguration of mantle and continental lid at ~ 2.2 Ga correlates with isotopic signatures and the Great Oxygenation Event and is the closest analogy in Earth history to the resurfacing of Venus. Change from Lid Tectonics to Plate Tectonics is transitional and the geological record identifies incipient development of Plate Tectonics on an orogenic scale especially after 1.1 Ga, but only following break-up of the continental lid (Palaeopangaea) in Ediacaran times beginning at ~ 0.6 Ga has it become comprehensive in the style evident during the

  8. Earth's glacial record and its tectonic setting (United States)

    Eyles, N.


    Glaciations have occurred episodically at different time intervals and for different durations in Earth's history. Ice covers have formed in a wide range of plate tectonic and structural settings but the bulk of Earth's glacial record can be shown to have been deposited and preserved in basins within extensional settings. In such basins, source area uplift and basin subsidence fulfill the tectonic preconditions for the initiation of glaciation and the accomodation and preservation of glaciclastic sediments. Tectonic setting, in particular subsidence rates, also dictates the type of glaciclastic facies and facies successions that are deposited. Many pre-Pleistocene glaciated basins commonly contain well-defined tectonostratigraphic successions recording the interplay of tectonics and sedimentation; traditional climatostratigraphic approaches involving interpretation in terms of either ice advance/retreat cycles or glacio-eustatic sea-level change require revision. The direct record of continental glaciation in Earth history, in the form of classically-recognised continental glacial landforms and "tillites", is meagre; it is probable that more than 95% of the volume of preserved "glacial" strata are glacially-influenced marine deposits that record delivery of large amounts of glaciclastic sediment to offshore basins. This flux has been partially or completely reworked by "normal" sedimentary processes such that the record of glaciation and climate change is recorded in marine successions and is difficult to decipher. The dominant "glacial" facies in the rock record are subaqueous debris flow diamictites and turbidites recording the selective preservation of poorly-sorted glaciclastic sediment deposited in deep water basins by sediment gravity flows. However, these facies are also typical of many non-glacial settings, especially volcanically-influenced environments; numerous Archean and Proterozoic diamictites, described in the older literature as tillites, have no

  9. Wavelet-based multifractal analysis on a time series of solar activity and PDO climate index (United States)

    Maruyama, Fumio; Kai, Kenji; Morimoto, Hiroshi


    There is increasing interest in finding the relation between solar activity and climate change. In general, fractal properties may be observed in the time series of the dynamics of complex systems, such as solar activity and climate. This study investigates the relations among solar activity, geomagnetic activity, and climatic regime shift by performing a multifractal analysis. To investigate the change in multifractality, we apply a wavelet transform to time series. The change in fractality of the sunspot number (SSN) correlates closely with that of the solar polar field strength. For the SSN and solar polar field strength, a weak multifractality or monofractality is present at the maximum SSN, minimum SSN, and maximum solar polar field strength. A strong multifractality is present two years before the maximum SSN. The climatic regime shift occurs when the SSN increases and the disturbance of the geomagnetic activity is large. At the climatic regime shift, the changes in the fractality of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index and changes in that of the solar activity indices corresponded with each other. From the fractals point of view, we clarify the relations among solar activity, geomagnetic activity, and climatic regime shift. The formation of the magnetic field of the sunspots is correlated with the solar polar field strength. The solar activity seems to influence the climatic regime shift. These findings will contribute to investigating the relation between solar activity and climate change.

  10. Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. (United States)

    Zeebe, Richard E


    Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth's surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth's climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000-165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

  11. Real-Time Climate Simulations in the Interactive 3D Game Universe Sandbox ² (United States)

    Goldenson, N. L.


    Exploration in an open-ended computer game is an engaging way to explore climate and climate change. Everyone can explore physical models with real-time visualization in the educational simulator Universe Sandbox ² (, which includes basic climate simulations on planets. I have implemented a time-dependent, one-dimensional meridional heat transport energy balance model to run and be adjustable in real time in the midst of a larger simulated system. Universe Sandbox ² is based on the original game - at its core a gravity simulator - with other new physically-based content for stellar evolution, and handling collisions between bodies. Existing users are mostly science enthusiasts in informal settings. We believe that this is the first climate simulation to be implemented in a professionally developed computer game with modern 3D graphical output in real time. The type of simple climate model we've adopted helps us depict the seasonal cycle and the more drastic changes that come from changing the orbit or other external forcings. Users can alter the climate as the simulation is running by altering the star(s) in the simulation, dragging to change orbits and obliquity, adjusting the climate simulation parameters directly or changing other properties like CO2 concentration that affect the model parameters in representative ways. Ongoing visuals of the expansion and contraction of sea ice and snow-cover respond to the temperature calculations, and make it accessible to explore a variety of scenarios and intuitive to understand the output. Variables like temperature can also be graphed in real time. We balance computational constraints with the ability to capture the physical phenomena we wish to visualize, giving everyone access to a simple open-ended meridional energy balance climate simulation to explore and experiment with. The software lends itself to labs at a variety of levels about climate concepts including seasons, the Greenhouse effect

  12. Active tectonics of the onshore Hengchun Fault using UAS DSM combined with ALOS PS-InSAR time series (Southern Taiwan) (United States)

    Deffontaines, Benoit; Chang, Kuo-Jen; Champenois, Johann; Lin, Kuan-Chuan; Lee, Chyi-Tyi; Chen, Rou-Fei; Hu, Jyr-Ching; Magalhaes, Samuel


    Characterizing active faults and quantifying their activity are major concerns in Taiwan, especially following the major Chichi earthquake on 21 September 1999. Among the targets that still remain poorly understood in terms of active tectonics are the Hengchun and Kenting faults (Southern Taiwan). From a geodynamic point of view, the faults affect the outcropping top of the Manila accretionary prism of the Manila subduction zone that runs from Luzon (northern Philippines) to Taiwan. In order to better locate and quantify the location and quantify the activity of the Hengchun Fault, we start from existing geological maps, which we update thanks to the use of two products derived from unmanned aircraft system acquisitions: (1) a very high precision (DSM) and (2) a georeferenced aerial photograph mosaic of the studied area. Moreover, the superimposition of the resulting structural sketch map with new Persistent Scatterer Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PS-InSAR) results obtained from PALSAR ALOS images, validated by Global Positioning System (GPS) and leveling data, allows the characterization and quantification of the surface displacements during the monitoring period (2007-2011). We confirm herein the geometry, characterization and quantification of the active Hengchun Fault deformation, which acts as an active left-lateral transpressive fault. As the Hengchun ridge was the location of one of the last major earthquakes in Taiwan (26 December 2006, depth: 44 km, ML = 7.0), Hengchun Peninsula active tectonics must be better constrained in order if possible to prevent major destructions in the near future.

  13. Tectonic vision in architecture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beim, Anne


    By introducing the concept; Tectonic Visions, The Dissertation discusses the interrelationship between the basic idea, the form principles, the choice of building technology and constructive structures within a given building. Includes Mies van der Rohe, Le Corbusier, Eames, Jorn Utzon, Louis Kahn...

  14. The Plate Tectonics Project (United States)

    Hein, Annamae J.


    The Plate Tectonics Project is a multiday, inquiry-based unit that facilitates students as self-motivated learners. Reliable Web sites are offered to assist with lessons, and a summative rubric is used to facilitate the holistic nature of the project. After each topic (parts of the Earth, continental drift, etc.) is covered, the students will…

  15. Cretacic tectonics in Uruguay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez Rifas, C.


    This work is about Cretacic tectonics in Uruguay, this formation is characterized by high level cortex because the basament is cratonized since Middle Devonian. There were formed two main grabens such as Santa Lucia and Mirim-Pelotas which are filled with basalt and sediments.

  16. Tectonic vision in architecture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beim, Anne


    By introducing the concept; Tectonic Visions, The Dissertation discusses the interrelationship between the basic idea, the form principles, the choice of building technology and constructive structures within a given building. Includes Mies van der Rohe, Le Corbusier, Eames, Jorn Utzon, Louis Kah...

  17. Tectonic design strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beim, Anne


    The tectonic realm of architecture concerns elements such as intentions and meaning - the process of translating visions into physical constructions - as well as the actual realization of building structures. This field of architectural making has been characterized by Kenneth Frampton as the poe...

  18. Tectonics of montage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bundgaard, Charlotte


    in architecture. The Italian architectural theorist, Marco Frascari describes the concepts 'construction' and 'construing' as inherent dimensions of tectonics, and according to him both dimensions have to be present in meaningful architecture. This close link between the creation of concrete solutions...

  19. Body size and activity times mediate mammalian responses to climate change. (United States)

    McCain, Christy M; King, Sarah R B


    Model predictions of extinction risks from anthropogenic climate change are dire, but still overly simplistic. To reliably predict at-risk species we need to know which species are currently responding, which are not, and what traits are mediating the responses. For mammals, we have yet to identify overarching physiological, behavioral, or biogeographic traits determining species' responses to climate change, but they must exist. To date, 73 mammal species in North America and eight additional species worldwide have been assessed for responses to climate change, including local extirpations, range contractions and shifts, decreased abundance, phenological shifts, morphological or genetic changes. Only 52% of those species have responded as expected, 7% responded opposite to expectations, and the remaining 41% have not responded. Which mammals are and are not responding to climate change is mediated predominantly by body size and activity times (phylogenetic multivariate logistic regressions, P mammals respond more, for example, an elk is 27 times more likely to respond to climate change than a shrew. Obligate diurnal and nocturnal mammals are more than twice as likely to respond as mammals with flexible activity times (P mammal species can behaviorally escape climate change whereas others cannot, analogous to paleontology's climate sheltering hypothesis. Including body size and activity flexibility traits into future extinction risk forecasts should substantially improve their predictive utility for conservation and management. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. DEM supported tectonic geomorphology : the Coastal Cordillera of the South-Central Chilean active margin ; [Poster


    Rehak, Katrin; Strecker, Manfred; Echtler, Helmut


    Fluvial systems are one of the major features shaping a landscape. They adjust to the prevailing tectonic and climatic setting and therefore are very sensitive markers of changes in these systems. If their response to tectonic and climatic forcing is quantified and if the climatic signal is excluded, it is possible to derive a local deformation history. Here, we investigate fluvial terraces and erosional surfaces in the southern Chilean forearc to assess a long-term geomorphic and hence tecto...

  1. Active tectonics of the onshore Hengchun Fault using UAS DSM combined with ALOS PS-InSAR time series (Southern Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Deffontaines


    Full Text Available Characterizing active faults and quantifying their activity are major concerns in Taiwan, especially following the major Chichi earthquake on 21 September 1999. Among the targets that still remain poorly understood in terms of active tectonics are the Hengchun and Kenting faults (Southern Taiwan. From a geodynamic point of view, the faults affect the outcropping top of the Manila accretionary prism of the Manila subduction zone that runs from Luzon (northern Philippines to Taiwan. In order to better locate and quantify the location and quantify the activity of the Hengchun Fault, we start from existing geological maps, which we update thanks to the use of two products derived from unmanned aircraft system acquisitions: (1 a very high precision (< 50 cm and resolution (< 10 cm digital surface model (DSM and (2 a georeferenced aerial photograph mosaic of the studied area. Moreover, the superimposition of the resulting structural sketch map with new Persistent Scatterer Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PS-InSAR results obtained from PALSAR ALOS images, validated by Global Positioning System (GPS and leveling data, allows the characterization and quantification of the surface displacements during the monitoring period (2007–2011. We confirm herein the geometry, characterization and quantification of the active Hengchun Fault deformation, which acts as an active left-lateral transpressive fault. As the Hengchun ridge was the location of one of the last major earthquakes in Taiwan (26 December 2006, depth: 44 km, ML =  7.0, Hengchun Peninsula active tectonics must be better constrained in order if possible to prevent major destructions in the near future.

  2. Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity (United States)

    Blois, Jessica L.; Williams, John W.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Ferrier, Simon


    “Space-for-time” substitution is widely used in biodiversity modeling to infer past or future trajectories of ecological systems from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the foundational assumption—that drivers of spatial gradients of species composition also drive temporal changes in diversity—rarely is tested. Here, we empirically test the space-for-time assumption by constructing orthogonal datasets of compositional turnover of plant taxa and climatic dissimilarity through time and across space from Late Quaternary pollen records in eastern North America, then modeling climate-driven compositional turnover. Predictions relying on space-for-time substitution were ∼72% as accurate as “time-for-time” predictions. However, space-for-time substitution performed poorly during the Holocene when temporal variation in climate was small relative to spatial variation and required subsampling to match the extent of spatial and temporal climatic gradients. Despite this caution, our results generally support the judicious use of space-for-time substitution in modeling community responses to climate change.

  3. Indonesian Landforms and Plate Tectonics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herman Th. Verstappen


    Full Text Available DOI: 10.17014/ijog.v5i3.103The horizontal configuration and vertical dimension of the landforms occurring in the tectonically unstable parts of Indonesia were resulted in the first place from plate tectonics. Most of them date from the Quaternary and endogenous forces are ongoing. Three major plates – the northward moving Indo-Australian Plate, the south-eastward moving SE-Asian Plate and the westward moving Pacific Plate - meet at a plate triple-junction situated in the south of New Guinea’s Bird’s Head. The narrow North-Moluccan plate is interposed between the Asia and Pacific. It tapers out northward in the Philippine Mobile Belt and is gradually disappearing. The greatest relief amplitudes occur near the plate boundaries: deep ocean trenches are associated with subduction zones and mountain ranges with collision belts. The landforms of the more stable areas of the plates date back to a more remote past and, where emerged, have a more subdued relief that is in the first place related to the resistance of the rocks to humid tropical weathering Rising mountain ranges and emerging island arcs are subjected to rapid humid-tropical river erosions and mass movements. The erosion products accumulate in adjacent sedimentary basins where their increasing weight causes subsidence by gravity and isostatic compensations. Living and raised coral reefs, volcanoes, and fault scarps are important geomorphic indicators of active plate tectonics. Compartmental faults may strongly affect island arcs stretching perpendicular to the plate movement. This is the case on Java. Transcurrent faults and related pull-apart basins are a leading factor where plates meet at an angle, such as on Sumatra. The most complicated situation exists near the triple-junction and in the Moluccas. Modern research methods, such as GPS measurements of plate movements and absolute dating of volcanic outbursts and raised coral reefs are important tools. The mega-landforms resulting


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana Yu. Tveretinova


    Full Text Available In the Earth's lithosphere, wavy alternation of positive and negative heterochronous structures is revealed; such structures are variable in ranks and separated by vergence zones of fractures and folds. In the vertical profile of the lithosphere, alternating are layers characterized by relatively plastic or fragile rheological properties and distinguished by different states of stress. During the Earth’s evolution, epochs of compression and extension are cyclically repeated, including planetary-scale phenomena which are manifested by fluctuating changes of the planet’s volume. Migration of geological and geophysical (geodynamic processes takes place at the Earth's surface and in its interior. The concept of the wave structure and evolution of the Earth's lithosphere provides explanations to the abovementioned regularities. Wavy nature of tectonic structures of the lithosphere, the cyclic recurrence of migration and geological processes in space and time can be described in terms of the multiple-order wave geodynamics of the Earth's lithosphere that refers to periodical variations of the state of stress. Effects of structure-forming tectonic forces are determined by «interference» of tangential and radial stresses of the Earth. The tangential stresses, which occur primarily due to the rotational regime of the planet, cause transformations of the Earth’s shape, redistributions of its substance in depths, the westward drift of the rock mass in its upper levels, and changes of structural deformation plans. The radial stresses, which are largely impacted by gravity, determine the gravitational differentiation of the substance, vertical flattening and sub-horizontal flow of the rock masses, and associated fold-rupture deformation. Under the uniform momentum geodynamic concept proposed by [Vikulin, Tveritinova, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008], it is possible to provide consistent descriptions of seismic and volcanic, tectonic and geological processes

  5. Towards a Tectonic Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvejsel, Marie Frier; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Mortensen, Sophie Bondgaard


    with these demands. As the largest potential for energy savings lies in re-insulation of the building envelope, specifically by adding an additional insulation layer, this transformation will dramatically affect the everyday experience of the built environment. Articulating the architectural consequences...... and potentials of this transformation is an urgent matter if it is not to be realized solely as a monotonous technical cladding. In this matter, that of conceiving such extra insulation layer simultaneously as a technical ‘principle’ and as a spatial ‘gesture’ revealing an aesthetic architectural potential...... through this transformation is inevitably a tectonic question. By analyzing three historical examples, Adolf Loos’ Villa Moller, Le Corbusier’s Unité d’Habitation, and Frank Lloyd Wright’s Johnson Wax Administration Building, chosen for their tectonic ability to exploit the technical ‘principle’ defining...

  6. Tectonics wins AAP Award (United States)

    AGU's newest journal, Tectonics, won the 1983 award for excellence in journal design and production given by the Association of American Publishers, Inc. (AAP), in the eighth annual professional and scholarly publishing awards competition. Edited by John F. Dewey, the bimonthly journal is a joint publication of AGU and the European Geophysical Society. Paul E. Tapponnier is the European editor and B.C. Burchfiel is the North American editor. The journal is now in its third year of publication.

  7. A New Time-varying Concept of Risk in a Changing Climate (United States)

    Sarhadi, Ali; Ausín, María Concepción; Wiper, Michael P.


    In a changing climate arising from anthropogenic global warming, the nature of extreme climatic events is changing over time. Existing analytical stationary-based risk methods, however, assume multi-dimensional extreme climate phenomena will not significantly vary over time. To strengthen the reliability of infrastructure designs and the management of water systems in the changing environment, multidimensional stationary risk studies should be replaced with a new adaptive perspective. The results of a comparison indicate that current multi-dimensional stationary risk frameworks are no longer applicable to projecting the changing behaviour of multi-dimensional extreme climate processes. Using static stationary-based multivariate risk methods may lead to undesirable consequences in designing water system infrastructures. The static stationary concept should be replaced with a flexible multi-dimensional time-varying risk framework. The present study introduces a new multi-dimensional time-varying risk concept to be incorporated in updating infrastructure design strategies under changing environments arising from human-induced climate change. The proposed generalized time-varying risk concept can be applied for all stochastic multi-dimensional systems that are under the influence of changing environments.

  8. Distinct phases of eustatic and tectonic forcing for late Quaternary landscape evolution in southwest Crete, Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Mouslopoulou


    Full Text Available The extent to which climate, eustasy and tectonics interact to shape the late Quaternary landscape is poorly known. Alluvial fans often provide useful indexes that allow the decoding of information recorded on complex coastal landscapes, such as those of the eastern Mediterranean. In this paper we analyse and date (using infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL dating a double alluvial fan system on southwest Crete, an island straddling the forearc of the Hellenic subduction margin, in order to constrain the timing and magnitude of its vertical deformation and discuss the factors contributing to its landscape evolution. The studied alluvial system is exceptional because each of its two juxtaposed fans records individual phases of alluvial and marine incision, thus providing unprecedented resolution in the formation and evolution of its landscape. Specifically, our analysis shows that the fan sequence at Domata developed during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS 3 due to five distinct stages of marine transgressions and regressions and associated river incision, in response to sea-level fluctuations and tectonic uplift at averaged rates of  ∼ 2.2 mm yr−1. Interestingly, comparison of our results with published tectonic uplift rates from western Crete shows that uplift during 20–50 kyr BP was minimal (or even negative. Thus, most of the uplift recorded at Domata must have occurred in the last 20 kyr. This implies that eustasy and tectonism impacted the landscape at Domata over mainly distinct time intervals (e.g. sequentially and not synchronously, with eustasy forming and tectonism preserving the coastal landforms.

  9. Overview of geology and tectonic evolution of the Baikal-Tuva area. (United States)

    Gladkochub, Dmitry; Donskaya, Tatiana


    This chapter provides the results of geological investigations of the main tectonic units of the Baikal-Tuva region (southwestern part of Siberia) during the last decades: the ancient Siberian craton and adjacent areas of the Central Asian Orogenic belt. In the framework of these main units we describe small-scale blocks (terranes) with focus on details of their inner structure and evolution through time. As well as describing the geology and tectonics of the area studied, we give an overview of underwater sediments, neotectonics, and some phenomena of history and development of the Baikal, Khubsugul, Chargytai, and Tore-Chol Lakes basins of the Baikal-Tuva region. It is suggested that these lakes' evolution was controlled by neotectonic processes, modern seismic activity, and global climate changes.

  10. Ethical Climate, Organizational Commitment, and Job Satisfaction of Full-Time Faculty Members (United States)

    Moore, Heather Louise


    The purpose of this quantitative study was to better understand the relationship of perceived ethical climate on the organizational commitment and job satisfaction of full-time faculty members in institutions of higher education. Full-time faculty members are the forefront employees of any educational institution, and they have a direct impact on…

  11. It's time for a crisper image of the Face of the Earth: Landsat and climate time series for massive land cover & climate change mapping at detailed resolution. (United States)

    Pons, Xavier; Miquel, Ninyerola; Oscar, González-Guerrero; Cristina, Cea; Pere, Serra; Alaitz, Zabala; Lluís, Pesquer; Ivette, Serral; Joan, Masó; Cristina, Domingo; Maria, Serra Josep; Jordi, Cristóbal; Chris, Hain; Martha, Anderson; Juanjo, Vidal


    Combining climate dynamics and land cover at a relative coarse resolution allows a very interesting approach to global studies, because in many cases these studies are based on a quite high temporal resolution, but they may be limited in large areas like the Mediterranean. However, the current availability of long time series of Landsat imagery and spatially detailed surface climate models allow thinking on global databases improving the results of mapping in areas with a complex history of landscape dynamics, characterized by fragmentation, or areas where relief creates intricate climate patterns that can be hardly monitored or modeled at coarse spatial resolutions. DinaCliVe (supported by the Spanish Government and ERDF, and by the Catalan Government, under grants CGL2012-33927 and SGR2009-1511) is the name of the project that aims analyzing land cover and land use dynamics as well as vegetation stress, with a particular emphasis on droughts, and the role that climate variation may have had in such phenomena. To meet this objective is proposed to design a massive database from long time series of Landsat land cover products (grouped in quinquennia) and monthly climate records (in situ climate data) for the Iberian Peninsula (582,000 km2). The whole area encompasses 47 Landsat WRS2 scenes (Landsat 4 to 8 missions, from path 197 to 202 and from rows 30 to 34), and 52 Landsat WRS1 scenes (for the previous Landsat missions, 212 to 221 and 30 to 34). Therefore, a mean of 49.5 Landsat scenes, 8 quinquennia per scene and a about 6 dates per quinquennium , from 1975 to present, produces around 2376 sets resulting in 30 m x 30 m spatial resolution maps. Each set is composed by highly coherent geometric and radiometric multispectral and multitemporal (to account for phenology) imagery as well as vegetation and wetness indexes, and several derived topographic information (about 10 Tbyte of data). Furthermore, on the basis on a previous work: the Digital Climatic Atlas of

  12. Experience real-time climate change: Environmental education at Jamtal glacier. (United States)

    Fischer, Andrea; Seiser, Bernd; Hartl, Lea; Bendler, Gebhard


    Kids hear about climate change in everyday news, but, unlike grown-ups, they find it much harder to imagine changes over decades, i.e. much longer than their own life span. So how to teach them the issues of climate change? Jamtalferner is an Alpine glacier with an ongoing mass balance monitoring programme started in 1988/89. Surveys of glacier length changes by the Austrian Alpine Club date back even longer, so that the glacier retreat after the Little Ice Age is well documented. As the glacier is easy to access, at just one hour's easy walk from the mountain hut, Jamtalferner was selected to compile materials on climate change for the use in schools and for preparing excursions for a hands-on confrontation with climate change and to give an impression of decadal changes. The materials will be available at and include time series of photographs, maps, tables, background information and exercises.

  13. Individualistic and time-varying tree-ring growth to climate sensitivity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Carrer

    Full Text Available The development of dendrochronological time series in order to analyze climate-growth relationships usually involves first a rigorous selection of trees and then the computation of the mean tree-growth measurement series. This study suggests a change in the perspective, passing from an analysis of climate-growth relationships that typically focuses on the mean response of a species to investigating the whole range of individual responses among sample trees. Results highlight that this new approach, tested on a larch and stone pine tree-ring dataset, outperforms, in terms of information obtained, the classical one, with significant improvements regarding the strength, distribution and time-variability of the individual tree-ring growth response to climate. Moreover, a significant change over time of the tree sensitivity to climatic variability has been detected. Accordingly, the best-responder trees at any one time may not always have been the best-responders and may not continue to be so. With minor adjustments to current dendroecological protocol and adopting an individualistic approach, we can improve the quality and reliability of the ecological inferences derived from the climate-growth relationships.

  14. Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change (United States)

    McDonald Madden, Eve; Runge, Michael C.; Possingham, Hugh P.; Martin, Tara G.


    Managed relocation is a controversial climate-adaptation strategy to combat negative climate change impacts on biodiversity. While the scientific community debates the merits of managed relocation1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12, species are already being moved to new areas predicted to be more suitable under climate change13,14. To inform these moves, we construct a quantitative decision framework to evaluate the timing of relocation in the face of climate change. We find that the optimal timing depends on many factors, including the size of the population, the demographic costs of translocation and the expected carrying capacities over time in the source and destination habitats. In some settings, such as when a small population would benefit from time to grow before risking translocation losses, haste is ill advised. We also find that active adaptive management15,16 is valuable when the effect of climate change on source habitat is uncertain, and leads to delayed movement.

  15. Etude Climat no. 38 'The economic tools of Chinese climate and energy policy at the time of the at the time of the 12. five-year plan'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Di; Delbosc, Anais


    pilot programme of seven regional carbon markets, which are scheduled to be running some time in 2013. Their disparate characteristics, detailed in this Climate Report, will need to be harmonised when introducing a national emissions trading scheme, planned during the period of the 13. five-year plan (2016-2020). There are many challenges involved in implementing economic instruments: cultural changes, with the move from an administrative management system to a market-based system, integration of regional schemes that reflect the significant disparities between regions in a unified national system, and strengthening of capacities, including the development of tools for measuring and verifying GHG emissions and allowances trading

  16. Changes in time of sowing, flowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Jørgen E; Børgesen, Christen Duus; Elsgaard, Lars


    The phenological development of cereal crops from emergence through flowering to maturity is largely controlled by temperature, but also affected by day length and potential physiological stresses. Responses may vary between species and varieties. Climate change will affect the timing of cereal...... crop development, but exact changes will also depend on changes in varieties as affected by plant breeding and variety choices. This study aimed to assess changes in timing of major phenological stages of cereal crops in Northern and Central Europe under climate change. Records on dates of sowing...... increased with increasing mean annual temperature of the location, indicating that varieties are well adapted to given conditions. The responses of wheat and oats were largest for the period from flowering to maturity. Changes in timing of cereal phenology by 2040 were assessed for two climate model...

  17. Oil prospection using the tectonic plate model (United States)

    Pointu, Agnès


    Tectonic plate models are an intellectual setting to understand why oil deposits are so uncommon and unequally distributed and how models can be used in actual oil and gas prospection. In this case, we use the example of the Ghawar deposit (Saudi Arabia), one of the largest producing well in the world. In the first step, physical properties of rocks composing the oil accumulation are studied by laboratory experiments. Students estimate the porosity of limestone and clay by comparing their mass before and after water impregnation. Results are compared to microscopic observations. Thus, students come to the conclusion that oil accumulations are characterized by superposition of rocks with very different properties: a rich organic source rock (clays of the Hanifa formation), a porous reservoir rock to store the petroleum in (limestones of the Arab formation) and above an impermeable rock with very low porosity (evaporites of the Tithonien). In previous lessons, students have seen that organic matter is usually mineralized by bacteria and that this preservation requires particular conditions. The aim is to explain why biomass production has been so important during the deposit of the clays of the Hanifa formation. Tectonic plate models make it possible to estimate the location of the Arabian Peninsula during Jurassic times (age of Hanifa formation). In order to understand why the paleo-location of the Arabian Peninsula is important to preserve organic matter, students have different documents showing: - That primary production of biomass by phytoplankton is favored by climatic conditions, - That the position of continents determinate the ocean currents and the positions of upwelling zones and zones where organic matter will be able to be preserved, - That north of the peninsula there was a passive margin during Jurassic times. An actual seismic line is studied in order to highlight that this extensive area allowed thick sedimentary deposits to accumulate and that fast

  18. The time aspect of bioenergy. Climate impacts of bioenergy due to differences in carbon uptake rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zetterberg, Lars [IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Stockholm (Sweden); Chen, Deliang [Dept. of Earth Sciences, Univ. of Gothenburg, Gothenburg (Sweden)


    This paper investigates the climate impacts from bioenergy due to how they influence carbon stocks over time and more specifically how fast combustion related carbon emissions are compensated by uptake of atmospheric carbon. A set of fuel types representing different uptake rates are investigated, namely willow, branches and tops, stumps and coal. Net emissions are defined as emissions from utilizing the fuel minus emissions from a reference case of no utilisation. In the case of forest residues, the compensating 'uptake' is avoided emissions from the reference case of leaving the residues to decompose on the ground. Climate impacts are estimated using the measures radiative forcing and global average surface temperature, which have been calculated by an energy balance climate model. We conclude that there is a climate impact from using bioenergy due to how fast the emission pulse is compensated by uptake of atmospheric carbon (or avoided emissions). Biofuels with slower uptake rates have a stronger climate impact than fuels with a faster uptake rate, assuming all other parameters equal. The time perspective over which the analysis is done is crucial for the climate impact of biofuels. If only biogenic fluxes are considered, our results show that over a 100 year perspective branches and tops are better for climate mitigation than stumps which in turn are better than coal. Over a 20 year time perspective this conclusion holds, but the differences between these fuels are relatively smaller. Establishing willow on earlier crop land may reduce atmospheric carbon, provided new land is available. However, these results are inconclusive since we haven't considered the effects, if needed, of producing the traditional agricultural crops elsewhere. The analysis is not a life cycle assessment of different fuels and does therefore not consider the use of fossil fuels for logging, transportation and refining, other greenhouse gases than carbon or energy

  19. Plate Tectonics and Planetary Evolution: Implications for Understanding Exoplanets (United States)

    Elkins-Tanton, L. T.


    A primary purpose in our study of exoplanets is the search for life. In hypothesizing how we might detect life, we start by examining life on Earth; it is our only example. How do we understand the meaning of habitability when there is only one example? All clues seem significant: the common need for the existence of water, the range of temperatures over which life on Earth is found, and the chemical cycles that maintain the surface and near-surface of the Earth within that range. A common assertion is that plate tectonics is necessary for the carbon cycle that keeps the Earth at habitable temperatures by sequestering carbon in limetone in oceans, and parceling it back into the atmosphere through volcanoes. This is an unproven hypothesis. There are other tectonic processes that cycle carbon into a planetary interior and back to the atmosphere; one possibility is small-scale convection that returns lithospheric material to the mantle and produces small-scale volcanism. Whether this process is sufficient to stabilize climate on one-plate planets or planets with sluggish convection remains to be demonstrated. Before we can discuss the criticality of plate tectonics on other planets we need to understand its criticality on Earth, and its apparent lack on Venus. And before we can predict whether plate tectonics should exist on a given exoplanet, we need to understand why it exists on Earth, and apparently not on Venus, and we need to know more about that exoplanet than can currently be detected. In this talk I will compare the predictions for exoplanetary conditions conducive to plate tectonics, walk through possible pathways in planetary evolution that lead to plate tectonics, and discuss whether any aspect of plate tectonics on an exoplanet is detectable from Earth. Predicting and hoping to detect plate tectonics on exoplanets is walking out a shaky limb; making cautious incremental advances in understanding terrestrial plate tectonics is critical before extending

  20. The public's belief in climate change and its human cause are increasing over time. (United States)

    Milfont, Taciano L; Wilson, Marc S; Sibley, Chris G


    Polls examining public opinion on the subject of climate change are now commonplace, and one-off public opinion polls provide a snapshot of citizen's opinions that can inform policy and communication strategies. However, cross-sectional polls do not track opinions over time, thus making it impossible to ascertain whether key climate change beliefs held by the same group of individuals are changing or not. Here we examine the extent to which individual's level of agreement with two key beliefs ("climate change is real" and "climate change is caused by humans") remain stable or increase/decrease over a six-year period in New Zealand using latent growth curve modelling (n = 10,436). Data were drawn from the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study, a probabilistic national panel study, and indicated that levels of agreement to both beliefs have steadily increased over the 2009-2015 period. Given that climate change beliefs and concerns are key predictors of climate change action, our findings suggest that a combination of targeted endeavors, as well as serendipitous events, may successfully convey the emergency of the issue.

  1. Impact of an observational time window on coupled data assimilation: simulation with a simple climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhao


    Full Text Available Climate signals are the results of interactions of multiple timescale media such as the atmosphere and ocean in the coupled earth system. Coupled data assimilation (CDA pursues balanced and coherent climate analysis and prediction initialization by incorporating observations from multiple media into a coupled model. In practice, an observational time window (OTW is usually used to collect measured data for an assimilation cycle to increase observational samples that are sequentially assimilated with their original error scales. Given different timescales of characteristic variability in different media, what are the optimal OTWs for the coupled media so that climate signals can be most accurately recovered by CDA? With a simple coupled model that simulates typical scale interactions in the climate system and twin CDA experiments, we address this issue here. Results show that in each coupled medium, an optimal OTW can provide maximal observational information that best fits the characteristic variability of the medium during the data blending process. Maintaining correct scale interactions, the resulting CDA improves the analysis of climate signals greatly. These simple model results provide a guideline for when the real observations are assimilated into a coupled general circulation model for improving climate analysis and prediction initialization by accurately recovering important characteristic variability such as sub-diurnal in the atmosphere and diurnal in the ocean.

  2. Tectonic Theory and Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frier, Marie; Fisker, Anna Marie; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning


    and assembly processes, seems a paradoxical challenge which has left prefabricated houses raw constructions rather than inhabitable homes. Based on the hypothesis that home is determined spatially via sensuous impressions of interiority at the threshold of furniture: The bath in Le Corbusier’s ‘Villa Savoye......’ is an example of this sensuous interior transformation of a house into a home, a level of detailing which is, however, seldom represented in the prefabricated house. Consequently, this paper investigates whether interiority can be developed as a tectonic theory and design principle for uniting home and system...

  3. Climatic potential for passive cooling of buildings by night-time ventilation in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Artmann, Nikolai; Manz, H.; Heiselberg, Per


    , without considering any building-specific parameters. An approach for calculating degree-hours based on a variable building temperature - within a standardized range of thermal comfort - is presented and applied to climatic data of 259 stations all over Europe. The results show a high potential for night......-time ventilation alone might not be sufficient to guarantee thermal comfort....

  4. Timing, cause and consequences of mid-Holocene climate transition in the Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Saraswat, R.; Naik, Dinesh K.; Nigam, R.; Gaur, A.S.

    the timing, consequences and possible causes of the mid-Holocene climate transition (MHCT). A distinct shift in evaporation-precipitation (E-P) is observed at 6.4 ka, accompanied by a net cooling of SST. The shift in SST and E-P is synchronous with a change...

  5. Meso-cenozoic extensional tectonics and uranium metallogenesis in southeast China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yuehui; Chen Zuyi; Cai Yuqi; Fu Jin; Feng Quanhong; Shi Zuhai


    Through a systematic study on Meso-Cenozoic extensional tectonics in Southeast China, the authors point out that there are three major types of extensional tectonics such as taphrogenic thermo-upwelling, and gravitational extensional tectonics. The characteristics of structural forms, combination patterns, movement style and syn-tectonic magmatism of different extensional tectonics are studied. Then according to the known isotope age data of uranium mineralizations in the area, the relations between the process of extensional tectonics and regional uranium metallogenesis, as well as the corresponding relations in space and time between extensional tectonics and uranium deposits of different types are analyzed. In conclusion, the authors suggest that the uranium mineralizations of different types in Southeast China are characterized by an united ore-forming mechanism due to the apparent control of extensional tectonics to the regional uranium metallogenesis

  6. Shading screens for the improvement of the night time climate of unheated greenhouses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. I. Montero


    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to study the effect of shading screens, normally used during the day for cooling purposes, on the night-time climate of unheated greenhouses. For this purpose, first a number of experimental measurements were taken during cold nights to characterise the greenhouse climate both with and without an aluminised external screen. Secondly a Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD model of greenhouse was developed. After validation of the model by comparison with experimental data, the model was used to simulate the greenhouse climate for different sky conditions ranging from cloudless to overcast nights. Simulations were performed for a greenhouse with internal and external shading screens and for the same greenhouse without screens. Experimental results showed the positive effect of an external shading screen, whose use increased night-time temperature and reduced the risk of thermal inversion. Its effect was much stronger under clear sky conditions. The CFD model supported this conclusion and provided a detailed explanation of the temperature behaviour of all the greenhouse types considered. CFD simulations proved that an aluminised screen placed inside the greenhouse at gutter height gave the greatest thermal increase. Therefore, external or internal screens can help to increase the sustainability of greenhouse production in areas with mild winter climates by enhancing the use of solar energy stored in the greenhouse soil during the previous day and released at night-time.

  7. Phenological Characterization of Desert Sky Island Vegetation Communities with Remotely Sensed and Climate Time Series Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart E. Marsh


    Full Text Available Climate change and variability are expected to impact the synchronicity and interactions between the Sonoran Desert and the forested sky islands which represent steep biological and environmental gradients. The main objectives were to examine how well satellite greenness time series data and derived phenological metrics (e.g., season start, peak greenness can characterize specific vegetation communities across an elevation gradient, and to examine the interactions between climate and phenological metrics for each vegetation community. We found that representative vegetation types (11, varying between desert scrub, mesquite, grassland, mixed oak, juniper and pine, often had unique seasonal and interannual phenological trajectories and spatial patterns. Satellite derived land surface phenometrics (11 for each of the vegetation communities along the cline showed numerous distinct significant relationships in response to temperature (4 and precipitation (7 metrics. Satellite-derived sky island vegetation phenology can help assess and monitor vegetation dynamics and provide unique indicators of climate variability and patterns of change.

  8. Noachian Climate of Mars: Insights from Noachian Stratigraphy and Valley Networks System Formation Times (United States)

    Head, J. W., III


    Noachian climate models have been proposed in order to account for 1) observed fluvial and lacustrine activity, 2) weathering processes producing phyllosilicates, and 3) an unusual impact record including three major impact basins and unusual degradation processes. We adopt a stratigraphic approach in order place these observations in a temporal context. Formation of the major impact basins Hellas, Isidis and Argyre in earlier Noachian profoundly influenced the uplands geology and appears to have occurred concurrently with major phyllosilicate and related surface occurrences/deposits; the immediate aftermath of these basins appears to have created a temporary hot and wet surface environment with significant effect on surface morphology and alteration processes. Formation of Late Noachian-Early Hesperian valley network systems (VNS) signaled the presence of warm/wet conditions generating several hypotheses for climates permissive of these conditions. We examined estimates for the time required to carve channels/deltas and total duration implied by plausible intermittencies. Synthesis of required timescales show that the total time to carve the VN does not exceed 106 years, 273 K, hydrological system vertically integrated, and rainfall occurs to recharge the aquifer. 2) Cold and Icy climate warmed by greenhouse gases or episodic stochastic events: Climate is sustained cold/icy, but greenhouse gases of unspecified nature/amount/duration elevate MAT by several tens of Kelvins, bringing the annual temperature range into the realm where peak seasonal temperatures (PST) exceed 273 K. In this climate environment, analogous to the Antarctic Dry Valleys, seasonal summer temperatures above 273 K are sufficient to melt snow/ice and form fluvial and lacustrine features, but MAT is well below 273 K (253 K); punctuated warming alternatives include impacts or volcanic eruptions. We conclude that a cold and icy background climate with modest greenhouse warming or punctuated warming

  9. Tectonically Induced Anomalies Without Large Earthquake Occurrences (United States)

    Shi, Zheming; Wang, Guangcai; Liu, Chenglong; Che, Yongtai


    In this study, we documented a case involving large-scale macroscopic anomalies in the Xichang area, southwestern Sichuan Province, China, from May to June of 2002, after which no major earthquake occurred. During our field survey in 2002, we found that the timing of the high-frequency occurrence of groundwater anomalies was in good agreement with those of animal anomalies. Spatially, the groundwater and animal anomalies were distributed along the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone. Furthermore, the groundwater level was elevated in the northwest part of the Zemuhe fault and depressed in the southeast part of the Zemuhe fault zone, with a border somewhere between Puge and Ningnan Counties. Combined with microscopic groundwater, geodetic and seismic activity data, we infer that the anomalies in the Xichang area were the result of increasing tectonic activity in the Sichuan-Yunnan block. In addition, groundwater data may be used as a good indicator of tectonic activity. This case tells us that there is no direct relationship between an earthquake and these anomalies. In most cases, the vast majority of the anomalies, including microscopic and macroscopic anomalies, are caused by tectonic activity. That is, these anomalies could occur under the effects of tectonic activity, but they do not necessarily relate to the occurrence of earthquakes.

  10. The tectonic stress field evolution of India since the Oligocene

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Müller, R.D.; Yatheesh, V.; Shuhail, M.

    strengths, enabling the modelling of stress field deflections along interfaces between relatively strong and weak tectonic elements through time. At 33 Ma a roughly NNW–SSE oriented band of relatively high maximum horizontal compressive stress (S...

  11. Effects of weather and climate on the dynamics of animal population time series. (United States)

    Knape, Jonas; de Valpine, Perry


    Weather is one of the most basic factors impacting animal populations, but the typical strength of such impacts on population dynamics is unknown. We incorporate weather and climate index data into analysis of 492 time series of mammals, birds and insects from the global population dynamics database. A conundrum is that a multitude of weather data may a priori be considered potentially important and hence present a risk of statistical over-fitting. We find that model selection or averaging alone could spuriously indicate that weather provides strong improvements to short-term population prediction accuracy. However, a block randomization test reveals that most improvements result from over-fitting. Weather and climate variables do, in general, improve predictions, but improvements were barely detectable despite the large number of datasets considered. Climate indices such as North Atlantic Oscillation are not better predictors of population change than local weather variables. Insect time series are typically less predictable than bird or mammal time series, although all taxonomic classes display low predictability. Our results are in line with the view that population dynamics is often too complex to allow resolving mechanisms from time series, but we argue that time series analysis can still be useful for estimating net environmental effects.

  12. Flexibility of timing of avian migration to climate change masked by environmental constraints en route. (United States)

    Both, Christiaan


    During the past decades, phenology of many organisms has advanced in response to climate change [1]. Earlier arrival of long-distance migrants has been reported frequently [2, 3], but advancements of arrival and breeding were not always sufficient to match phenology at other trophic levels [4]. This has led to increased selection for early breeding [5] and severe population declines [6, 7]. This inadequate response has been explained by an inflexible start of migration, governed by cues unrelated to climate change, such as photoperiod [8]. It has been suggested that evolution at the genetic level is required for a change in photoresponsiveness [9]. Recently, such an evolutionary change in migration timing was suggested [10]. Here I show that timing of spring migration of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) has responded flexibly to climate change. Recovery dates during spring migration in Northern Africa advanced by ten days between 1980 and 2002, which was explained by improving Sahel rainfall and a phenotypic effect of birth date. The lack of advance on the breeding grounds most likely was due to environmental constraints during migration. Adjustment of arrival date in migrants to climate change could thus be rapid, but only if circumstances favorably change for the whole journey.

  13. Patient safety climate profiles across time: Strength and level of safety climate associated with a quality improvement program in Switzerland—A cross-sectional survey study (United States)

    Mascherek, Anna C.


    Safety Climate has been acknowledged as an unspecific factor influencing patient safety. However, studies rarely provide in-depth analysis of climate data. As a helpful approach, the concept of “climate strength” has been proposed. In the present study we tested the hypotheses that even if safety climate remains stable on mean-level across time, differences might be evident in strength or shape. The data of two hospitals participating in a large national quality improvement program were analysed for differences in climate profiles at two measurement occasions. We analysed differences on mean-level, differences in percent problematic response, agreement within groups, and frequency histograms in two large hospitals in Switzerland at two measurement occasions (2013 and 2015) applying the Safety Climate Survey. In total, survey responses of 1193 individuals were included in the analyses. Overall, small but significant differences on mean-level of safety climate emerged for some subgroups. Also, although agreement was strong at both time-points within groups, tendencies of divergence or consensus were present in both hospitals. Depending on subgroup and analyses chosen, differences were more or less pronounced. The present study illustrated that taking several measures into account and describing safety climate from different perspectives is necessary in order to fully understand differences and trends within groups and to develop interventions addressing the needs of different groups more precisely. PMID:28753633

  14. Relevance of emissions timing in biofuel greenhouse gases and climate impacts. (United States)

    Schwietzke, Stefan; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott


    Employing life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a key performance metric in energy and environmental policy may underestimate actual climate change impacts. Emissions released early in the life cycle cause greater cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) over the next decades than later emissions. Some indicate that ignoring emissions timing in traditional biofuel GHG accounting overestimates the effectiveness of policies supporting corn ethanol by 10-90% due to early land use change (LUC) induced GHGs. We use an IPCC climate model to (1) estimate absolute CRF from U.S. corn ethanol and (2) quantify an emissions timing factor (ETF), which is masked in the traditional GHG accounting. In contrast to earlier analyses, ETF is only 2% (5%) over 100 (50) years of impacts. Emissions uncertainty itself (LUC, fuel production period) is 1-2 orders of magnitude higher, which dwarfs the timing effect. From a GHG accounting perspective, emissions timing adds little to our understanding of the climate impacts of biofuels. However, policy makers should recognize that ETF could significantly decrease corn ethanol's probability of meeting the 20% GHG reduction target in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act. The added uncertainty of potentially employing more complex emissions metrics is yet to be quantified.

  15. Modeling Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Forcing on Centennial and Decadal Time Scales (United States)

    Wen, G.; Cahalan, R.; Rind, D.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J.


    We report a series of experiments to explore clima responses to two types of solar spectral forcing on decadal and centennial time scales - one based on prior reconstructions, and another implied by recent observations from the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral 1rradiance Monitor). We apply these forcings to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM). that couples atmosphere with ocean, and has a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full response to the two solar forcing scenarios. We show different climate responses to the two solar forCing scenarios on decadal time scales and also trends on centennial time scales. Differences between solar maximum and solar minimum conditions are highlighted, including impacts of the time lagged reSponse of the lower atmosphere and ocean. This contrasts with studies that assume separate equilibrium conditions at solar maximum and minimum. We discuss model feedback mechanisms involved in the solar forced climate variations.

  16. Earth's Decelerating Tectonic Plates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forte, A M; Moucha, R; Rowley, D B; Quere, S; Mitrovica, J X; Simmons, N A; Grand, S P


    Space geodetic and oceanic magnetic anomaly constraints on tectonic plate motions are employed to determine a new global map of present-day rates of change of plate velocities. This map shows that Earth's largest plate, the Pacific, is presently decelerating along with several other plates in the Pacific and Indo-Atlantic hemispheres. These plate decelerations contribute to an overall, globally averaged slowdown in tectonic plate speeds. The map of plate decelerations provides new and unique constraints on the dynamics of time-dependent convection in Earth's mantle. We employ a recently developed convection model constrained by seismic, geodynamic and mineral physics data to show that time-dependent changes in mantle buoyancy forces can explain the deceleration of the major plates in the Pacific and Indo-Atlantic hemispheres.

  17. Glucocorticoid assessment in the domestic horse: The impacts of time and climatic variables on sample integrity. (United States)

    Yarnell, K; Walker, S L


    Assessment of faecal glucocorticoid metabolites (FGM) offers a noninvasive method of monitoring adrenal activity in domestic horses. Samples are collected on an opportunistic basis and, if they are not fresh or have been exposed to the elements before they are identified, may not accurately reflect FGM concentrations. To explore the impact of a range of environmental conditions upon the integrity of FGM levels in equine faeces. In vitro experiment. Equine faeces were exposed to six controlled environmental conditions intended to simulate a range of weather and seasonal patterns (temperate climate, high heat, high heat and rainfall, temperate climate and rainfall, high heat/temperate climate, freeze/thaw) over a period of 5 days. FGM were quantified using an enzyme-linked immunoassay. Faecal samples exposed to room temperature and high heat demonstrated significant increases in FGM levels over time. No changes in FGM levels were observed in the remaining treatments. The study should be repeated in field conditions and with known high and low levels of FGM to further inform sampling regimes. Adrenal monitoring in the domestic horse should be performed with consideration of the impact of climate on the integrity of faecal samples in order to further inform sampling schedules and improve the reliability of results. © 2017 EVJ Ltd.


    Stamenkovic, V.; Noack, L.; Breuer, D.


    The last years of astronomical observation have opened the doors to a universe filled with extrasolar planets. Detection techniques still only offer the possibility to detect mainly Super-Earths above five Earth masses. But detection techniques do steadily improve and are offering the possibility to detect even smaller planets. The observations show that planets seem to exist in many possible sizes just as the planets and moons of our own solar system do. It is only a natural question to ask if planetary mass has an influence on some key habitability factors such as on plate tectonics, allowing us to test which exoplanets might be more likely habitable than others, and allowing us to understand if plate tectonics on Earth is a stable or a critical, instable process that could easily be perturbed. Here we present results derived from 1D parameterized thermal evolution and 2D/3D computer models, showing how planetary mass influences the propensity of plate tectonics for planets with masses ranging from 0.1 to 10 Earth masses. Lately [2, 3] studied the effect of planetary mass on the ability to break plates and hence initiate plate tectonics - but both derived results contradictory to the other. We think that one of the reasons why both studies [2, 3] are not acceptable in their current form is partly due to an oversimplification. Both treated viscosity only temperature-dependent but neglected the effect pressure has on enlarging the viscosity in the deep mantle. More massive planets have therefore a stronger pressure-viscosity-coupling making convection at high pressures sluggish or even impossible. For planets larger than two Earth masses we observe that a conductive lid (termed low-lid) forms above the core-mantle boundary and thus reduces the effective convective part of the mantle when including a pressure-dependent term into the viscosity laws as shown in [1]. Moreover [2, 3] use time independent steady state models neglecting the fact that plate tectonics is a

  19. Tourist Perceptions On Supporting Infrastructure Facilities And Climate-Based Visiting Time Of Ngebel Lake, Ponorogo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ardhila Ayu Prasetyowati


    Full Text Available This study aims to analyze the tourists’ perception about the importance and satisfaction on the product of fisheries tourism, and to assess the visiting time of tourist based on climate conditions. The research was conducted in May to June 2013 in Ngebel Lake, Ponorogo. We used descriptive quantitative approach, with 45 respondents. Data collected from interview, questionnaire and observation. Analytical methods were used to determine the perception of tourists on the satisfaction and interest in fisheries tourism products, i.e. Importance Performance Analysis (IPA. We also used Tourism Climate Index (TCI to determine the visiting time of tourist. The results show the value of satisfaction and tourist interest is low, therefore the improvement of several aspects become important. It is encompasses: a the existence of parking area; b the condition of Ngebel Lake; c planning and management system, the condition of the local community; and d activities of fish course restaurant and fish farming system of floating net cages. TCI value indicates ideal conditions for tourists traveled in Ngebel Lake is in November (convenience index value of 106, in December (97 and in April (94. This appropriate time to visit Ngebel Lake is expected to create a good impression for the tourists and enjoy the various fisheries activities in Ngebel Lake. Keywords: Importance Performance Analysis, Ngebel Lake, Tourist Climate Index

  20. Biological modulation of tectonics (United States)

    Sleep, N. H.; Bird, D. K.


    Photosynthesis has had geologic consequences over the Earth's history. In addition to modifying Earth's atmosphere and ocean chemistry, it has also modulated tectonic processes through enhanced weathering and modification of the nature and composition of sedimentary rocks within fold mountain belts and convergent margins. Molecular biological studies indicate that bacterial photosynthesis evolved just once and that most bacterial clades descend from this photosynthetic common ancestor. Iron-based photosynthesis (ideally 4FeO + CO2 + H2O = 2Fe2O3 + CH2O) was the most bountiful anoxygenic niche on land. The back reaction provided energy to heterotrophic microbes and returned FeO to the photosynthetic microbes. Bacterial land colonists evolved into ecosystems that effectively weathered FeO-bearing minerals and volcanic glass. Clays, sands, and dissolved cations from the weathering process entered the ocean and formed our familiar classes sedimentary rocks: shales, sandstones, and carbonates. Marine photosynthesis caused organic carbon to accumulate in black shales. In contrast, non-photosynthetic ecosystems do not cause organic carbon to accumulate in shale. These evolutionary events occurred before 3.8 Ga as black shales are among the oldest rock types (Rosing and Frei, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 217, 237-244, 2004). Thick sedimentary sequences deformed into fold mountain belts. They remelted at depth to form granitic rocks (Rosing et al., Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol. 232, 99-11, 2006). Regions of outcropping low-FeO rocks including granites, quartzites, and some shales were a direct result. This dearth of FeO favored the evolution of oxic photosynthesis of cyanobacteria from photosynthetic soil bacteria. Black shales have an additional modulation effect on tectonics as they concentrate radioactive elements, particularly uranium (e.g. so that the surface heat flow varies by a factor of ca. 2). Thick sequences of black shales at continental rises of passive margins are

  1. Morphological expression of active tectonics in the Southern Alps (United States)

    Robl, Jörg; Heberer, Bianca; Neubauer, Franz; Hergarten, Stefan


    Evolving drainage pattern and corresponding metrics of the channels (e.g. normalized steepness index) are sensitive indicators for tectonic or climatic events punctuating the evolution of mountain belts and their associated foreland basins. The analysis of drainage systems and their characteristic properties represents a well-established approach to constrain the impact of tectonic and climatic drivers on mountainous landscapes in the recent past. The Southern Alps (SA) are one of the seismically most active zones in the periphery of northern Adria. Recent deformation is caused by the ongoing convergence of the Adriatic and European plate and is recorded by numerous earthquakes in the domain of the SA. Deformation in the SA is characterized by back-thrusting causing crustal thickening and should therefore result in uplift and topography formation. The vertical velocity field determined by GPS-data clearly indicates a belt of significant uplift in the south South alpine indenter between Lake Garda in the west and the Triglav in the east and strong subsidence of the foreland basin surrounding the Mediterranean Sea near Venice, although subsidence is often related to ongoing subduction of the Adriatic microplate underneath Appennines. Despite of these short term time series, timing, rates and drivers of alpine landscape evolution are not well constrained and the linkage between crustal deformation and topographic evolution of this highly active alpine segment remains unclear for the following reasons: (1) The eastern Southern Alps were heavily overprinted by the Pleistocene glaciations and tectonic signals in the alpine landscape are blurred. Only the transition zone to the southern foreland basin remained unaffected and allows an analysis of a glacially undisturbed topography. (2) The major part of this domain is covered by lithology (carbonatic rocks) which is unsuitable for low temperature geochronology and cosmogenic isotope dating so that exhumation and erosion

  2. Yield and crop cycle time of peaches cultivated in subtropical climates and subjected to different pruning times

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Augusto Ferraz


    Full Text Available The cultivation of peaches in regions of subtropical and tropical climate is currently achieved through a set of practices such as using less demanding cultivars in cold conditions, applying plant growth regulators to break dormancy, and performing specific pruning, like production and renewal pruning. Research on the climate adaptation of cultivars is of great importance in establishing a crop in a given region. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the agronomic performance of three cultivars subjected to different production pruning times in Botucatu/SP, where 2-year old peach trees were evaluated, grown at a spacing of 6.0 x 4.0 meters. The experimental design was a split plot design with four blocks, using the cultivars Douradão, BRS Kampai and BRS Rubimel, and the subplots corresponded to pruning times in May, June, July and August. Ten plants were used per plot, with the four central plants considered useful and the remaining considered as margins. Pruning in June and July showed the best results in terms of percentage of fruit set and production. The cultivar BRS Rubimel showed the best percentage of fruit set when pruned in June (44.96%, and best fruit production when pruned in July (18.7 kg plant-1. Pruning in May anticipated the harvest of cultivar BRS Rubimel by 13 days whereas pruning carried out in July and August provided late harvests for cultivars Douradão and BRS Kampai.

  3. Petrogenesis of Permian A-type granitoids in the Cihai iron ore district, Eastern Tianshan, NW China: Constraints on the timing of iron mineralization and implications for a non-plume tectonic setting (United States)

    Zheng, Jiahao; Mao, Jingwen; Chai, Fengmei; Yang, Fuquan


    The geochronology and geochemistry of granitoids in the Eastern Tianshan, NW China provide important constraints on the timing of iron mineralization, as well as in understanding evolution history of the southern Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB). Here we present results from a detailed study on granitoid rocks from the Cihai iron ore district in the Beishan region, southern part of the Eastern Tianshan. The granitoid rocks are composed of granodiorite, quartz monzonite, granite, and monzonite. Zircon U-Pb analyses yielded the ages of 294.1 ± 2.2 Ma, 286.5 ± 0.7 Ma, 284.3 ± 3.3 Ma, and 265.6 ± 3.0 Ma, respectively, suggesting they were formed in Early-Middle Permian. Among these granitoid rocks, the ages of quartz monzonite and granite are close to the timing of iron mineralization ( 282 Ma), indicating they may provide a source of iron in the Cihai ore district. Geochemically, the granodiorite, granite, and quartz monzonite samples are characterized by high FeOt/(FeOt + MgO) and Ga/Al ratios (0.84-0.94 and 2.28-3.27, respectively), as well as high zircon saturation temperatures (781-908 °C), similar to those of typical A-type granitoids. Isotopically, they display consistently depleted Hf isotopic compositions (εHf(t) = + 1.18 to + 15.37). Geological, geochemical, and isotopic data suggest that the Cihai A-type granitoids were derived from melting of juvenile lower crust. Some Early Permian A-type granitoids were recently identified in the Tarim and Eastern Tianshan with the ages between 294 and 269 Ma. The A-type granitoids in the Eastern Tianshan formed earlier between 294-284 Ma and exhibit characteristics of A2 type granitoids, whereas the A-type granitoids in the Tarim formed later between 277-269 Ma and show A1 granitoids affinity. We suggest that the Permian Tarim mantle plume does not account for the formation of the A-type granitoids in the Eastern Tianshan area, and the Eastern Tianshan was in a non-plume tectonic setting during Early Permian time

  4. Tectonic evolution of Mars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wise, D.U.; Golombek, M.P.; McGill, G.E.


    Any model for the tectonic evolution of Mars must account for two major crustal elements: the Tharsis bulge and the topographically low and lightly crated northern third of the planet. Ages determined by crater density indicate that both of these elements came into existence very early in Martian history, a conclusion that holds no matter which of the current crater density versus age curves is used. The size of these two major crustal elements and their sequential development suggest that both may be related to a global-scale internal process. It is proposed that the resurfacing of the northern third of Mars is related to subcrustal erosion and isostatic foundering during the life of a first-order convection cell. With the demise of the cell, denser segregations of metallic materials began to coalesce as a gravitatively unstable layer which finally overturned to form the core. In the overturn, lighter crustal materials was shifted laterally and underplated beneath Tharsis to cause rapid and permanent isostatic rise. This was followed by a long-lived thermal phase produced by the hot underplate and by the gravitative energy of core formation slowly making its way to the surface to produce the Tharsis volcanics

  5. From climate change uncertainties to strategic options. Objectives, instruments, timing issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Philibert, C. [French Agency for Environment and Energy Management, Paris (France)


    The question of climate change is characterised by major uncertainties. For some, this means that no action should be undertaken for the time being. For others, forceful action is needed to avoid potentially disastrous consequences: targets and timetables for emission reductions must be agreed. This communication is an attempt to suggest a third alternative, with two main conclusions. The international decision process should focus on instruments and degrees of effort, rather than on `emission trajectories` (the evolution of emission levels over time), rather than on quantitative objectives tied to precise timetables. In this perspective action can start right away. (author)

  6. Detrital zircon U-Pb ages of the Proterozoic metaclastic-sedimentary rocks in Hainan Province of South China: New constraints on the depositional time, source area, and tectonic setting of the Shilu Fe-Co-Cu ore district (United States)

    Wang, Zhilin; Xu, Deru; Hu, Guocheng; Yu, Liangliang; Wu, Chuanjun; Zhang, Zhaochong; Cai, Jianxin; Shan, Qiang; Hou, Maozhou; Chen, Huayong


    The Shilu Fe-Co-Cu ore district, located at Hainan Province of South China, is well known for high-grade hematite-rich Fe ores and also two Precambrian host successions, i.e. the Shilu Group and the overlying Shihuiding Formation. This district has been interpreted as a banded iron formation (BIF) deposit-type, but its depositional time, source area and depositional setting have been in debate due to poor geochronological work. Detrital zircon U-Pb dating aided by cathodoluminescence imaging has been carried out on both the Shilu Group and Shihuiding Formation. Most of the zircon grains from both the successions are subrounded to rounded in morphology and have age spectra between 2000 Ma and 900 Ma with two predominant peaks at ca. 1460-1340 Ma and 1070 Ma, and three subordinate peaks at ca. 1740-1660 Ma, 1220 Ma and 970 Ma. The similar age distribution suggests the same depositional system for both successions. Linked to the geological and paleontological signatures, the Shihuiding Formation is better re-interpreted as the top, i.e. Seventh member of the Shilu Group, rather than a distinct Formation. The youngest statistical zircon age peaks for both successions, i.e. ca. 1070-970 Ma may define the maximum depositional time of the Shilu Group and interbedded BIFs. At least two erosional sources are required for deposition of the studied detrital zircons, with one proximal to provide the least abraded zircons and the other distal or recycled to offer the largely abraded zircons. The predominance of rounded or subrounded zircons over angular zircons probably implies a relatively stable tectonic setting during deposition. Given the Precambrian tectonics of Hainan Island, a retro-arc foreland basin is proposed for the deposition of the Shilu Group and interbedded BIFs. In comparison with those from the South China and other typical Grenvillian orogens, the detrital zircon age populations reveal that Hainan Island had crystalline basement similar to neither the Yangtze

  7. Terrestrial carbon turnover time constraints on future carbon cycle-climate feedback (United States)

    Fan, N.; Carvalhais, N.; Reichstein, M.


    Understanding the terrestrial carbon cycle-climate feedback is essential to reduce the uncertainties resulting from the between model spread in prognostic simulations (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). One perspective is to investigate which factors control the variability of the mean residence times of carbon in the land surface, and how these may change in the future, consequently affecting the response of the terrestrial ecosystems to changes in climate as well as other environmental conditions. Carbon turnover time of the whole ecosystem is a dynamic parameter that represents how fast the carbon cycle circulates. Turnover time τ is an essential property for understanding the carbon exchange between the land and the atmosphere. Although current Earth System Models (ESMs), supported by GVMs for the description of the land surface, show a strong convergence in GPP estimates, but tend to show a wide range of simulated turnover times (Carvalhais, 2014). Thus, there is an emergent need of constraints on the projected response of the balance between terrestrial carbon fluxes and carbon stock which will give us more certainty in response of carbon cycle to climate change. However, the difficulty of obtaining such a constraint is partly due to lack of observational data on temporal change of terrestrial carbon stock. Since more new datasets of carbon stocks such as SoilGrid (Hengl, et al., 2017) and fluxes such as GPP (Jung, et al., 2017) are available, improvement in estimating turnover time can be achieved. In addition, previous study ignored certain aspects such as the relationship between τ and nutrients, fires, etc. We would like to investigate τ and its role in carbon cycle by combining observatinoal derived datasets and state-of-the-art model simulations.

  8. Impact of climate change on snow melt driven runoff timing over the Alpine region (United States)

    Coppola, Erika; Raffaele, Francesca; Giorgi, Filippo


    We investigate the climate change impact on snowmelt-driven runoff (SDR) over the Alpine region using the output from two Med-CORDEX and two EURO-CORDEX regional climate model projections (RCP8.5 scenario) at two resolutions (12, 50 km) driven by a sub-set of the CMIP5 GCMs. Comparison with the European Water Archive observed runoff dataset (242 stations) over the Alps shows a good performance by the higher resolution models in representing present day SDR, with the lower resolution simulations being less accurate in capturing the SDR timing. In the future projections all the models show a temperature increase of up to 4° by the end of the 21st century throughout the Alps and this leads to an anticipation of SDR timing throughout the year that can span from 1 to 3 months depending on the model horizontal resolution. These timing changes are associated with changes in snow cover modulated by the complex Alpine topography. In fact, model resolution plays a critical role in regulating the magnitude, timing and spatial distribution of the response of snow cover and SDR to warming. We find that the accurate simulation of changes in runoff timing requires a high resolution representation of the Alpine topography, and can be important for water storage regulations concerning energy production, agriculture and domestic use.

  9. Preschoolers´ Physical Activity and Time on Task During a Mastery Motivational Climate and Free Play

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle D Wadsworth


    Full Text Available The purpose of the present study was to determine the effect of a structured, mastery motivation physical education climate and an unstructured physical activity climate on time spent on task in a small sample of preschool children. Children enrolled in a public, federal-subsidized childcare center (N= 12 participated in two 45 minute physical activity programs within the school day. The structured climate consisted of a biweekly program of motor skill instruction that was based upon the key principles of a mastery motivational climate. The unstructured program was a daily 45 minute free play environment. Actigraph accelerometers monitored children’s participation in physical activity and time-on task was observed by a momentary time sampling technique. Results showed that time on-task significantly improved following a mastery motivational climate, and children spent 36% of their time in moderate-to-vigorous activity in this climate.  In contrast, time on-task did not significantly improve following participation in a free play environment and participants spent a majority of their time in sedentary behavior and accumulated no vigorous physical activity. Our results indicate that participation in physical activity impacts a preschooler’s ability to stay on task and the amount of physical activity accumulated during physical activity programming is dependent upon the climate delivered.

  10. JaMBES: A "New" Way of Calculating Plate Tectonic Reconstruction (United States)

    Chambord, A. I.; Smith, E. G. C.; Sutherland, R.


    Calculating the paleoposition of tectonic plates using marine geophysical data has been usually done by using the Hellinger criterion [Hellinger, 1981]. However, for the Hellinger software [Kirkwood et al., 1999] to produce stable results, we find that the input data must be abundant and spatially well distributed. Although magnetic anomalies and fracture zone data have been increasingly abundant since the 1960s, some parts of the globe remain too sparsely explored to provide enough data for the Hellinger code to provide satisfactory rotations. In this poster, we present new software to calculate the paleopositions of tectonic plates using magnetic anomalies and fracture zone data. Our method is based on the theory of plate tectonics as introduced by [Bullard et al., 1965] and [Morgan, 1968], which states that ridge segments (ie. magnetic lineations) and fracture zones are at right angles to each other. In order to test our software, we apply it to a region of the world where climatic conditions hinder the acquisition of magnetic data: the Southwest Pacific, between New Zealand and Antarctica from breakup time to chron 20 (c43Ma). Bullard, E., J. E. Everett, and A. G. Smith (1965), The fit of continents around the atlantic, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series A: Mathematical and Physical Sciences, 258(1088), 41-51. Hellinger, S. J. (1981), The uncertainties of finite rotations in plate tectonics, Journal of Geophysical Research, 86(B10), 9312-9318. Kirkwood, B. H., J. Y. Royer, T. C. Chang, and R. G. Gordon (1999), Statistical tools for estimating and combining finite rotations and their uncertainties, Geophysical Journal International, 137(2), 408-428. Morgan, W. J. (1968), Rises, trenches, great faults, and crustal blocks, Journal of Geophysical Research, 73(6), 1959-1982.

  11. Earthwatch and the HSBC Climate Partnership: Linking climate change and forests management one citizen scientist at a time (United States)

    Stover, D. B.; Jones, A.; Kusek, K.; Bebber, D.; Phillips, R.; Campbell, J.


    Earthwatch has engaged more than 90,000 citizen scientists in long-term research studies since its founding in 1971. One of its newer research and engagement programs is the HSBC Climate Partnership, a five-year global program on climate change to inspire action by individuals, businesses and governments (2007-2012). In this unique NGO-business partnership, Earthwatch has implemented five forest research-focused climate centers in the US, UK, Brazil, India and China. At each center, a team of scientists—supported by HSBC banking employees and local citizen scientists—is gathering data to determine how temperate and tropical forests are affected by changes in climate and human activity. Results are establishing baseline data to empower forest managers, conservationists and communities with the information they need to better manage forests within a changing climate. A critical component of the program is the engagement of 2,200 corporate HSBC employees who spend two weeks out of the office at one of the regional climate centers. They work alongside leading scientists to perform forest research by day, and participate each evening in an interactive education program on the ecological and socioeconomic impacts of climate change—including how climate change impacts HSBC’s bottom line. Program participants are empowered and have successfully developed sustainability projects they implement back in their office, homes and communities that furthers corporate and public commitment to sustainability and combating the effects of climate change. In addition to the corporate engagement model, Earthwatch has successfully engaged scores of local community stakeholders in the HSBC Climate Partnership, including teachers who report back to their classrooms “live from the field,” reporters and other business/NGO leaders in modified one week versions of the field program. New models of citizen science engagement are currently under development, with best practices and

  12. Recent Shift in Climate Relationship Enables Prediction of the Timing of Bird Breeding.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelley A Hinsley

    Full Text Available Large-scale climate processes influence many aspects of ecology including breeding phenology, reproductive success and survival across a wide range of taxa. Some effects are direct, for example, in temperate-zone birds, ambient temperature is an important cue enabling breeding effort to coincide with maximum food availability, and earlier breeding in response to warmer springs has been documented in many species. In other cases, time-lags of up to several years in ecological responses have been reported, with effects mediated through biotic mechanisms such as growth rates or abundance of food supplies. Here we use 23 years of data for a temperate woodland bird species, the great tit (Parus major, breeding in deciduous woodland in eastern England to demonstrate a time-lagged linear relationship between the on-set of egg laying and the winter index of the North Atlantic Oscillation such that timing can be predicted from the winter index for the previous year. Thus the timing of bird breeding (and, by inference, the timing of spring events in general can be predicted one year in advance. We also show that the relationship with the winter index appears to arise through an abiotic time-lag with local spring warmth in our study area. Examining this link between local conditions and larger-scale processes in the longer-term showed that, in the past, significant relationships with the immediately preceding winter index were more common than those with the time-lagged index, and especially so from the late 1930s to the early 1970s. However, from the mid 1970s onwards, the time-lagged relationship has become the most significant, suggesting a recent change in climate patterns. The strength of the current time-lagged relationship suggests that it might have relevance for other temperature-dependent ecological relationships.

  13. MACMA: a Virtual Lab for Plate Tectonics (United States)

    Grigne, C.; Combes, M.; Tisseau, C.


    MACMA (Multi-Agent Convective MAntle) is a tool developed to simulate evolutive plate tectonics and mantle convection in a 2-D cylindrical geometry (Combes et al., 2012). The model relies mainly on a force balance to compute the velocity of each plate, and on empirical rules to determine how plate boundaries move and evolve. It includes first-order features of plate tectonics: (a) all plates on Earth do not have the same size, (b) subduction zones are asymmetric, (c) plates driven by subducting slabs and upper plates do not exhibit the same velocities, and (d) plate boundaries are mobile, can collide, merge and disappear, and new plate boundaries can be created. The MACMA interface was designed to be user-friendly and a simple use of the simulator can be achieved without any prerequisite knowledge in fluid dynamics, mantle rheology, nor in numerical methods. As a preliminary study, the simulator was used by a few students from bachelor's degree to master's degree levels. An initial configuration for plate tectonics has to be created before starting a simulation: the number and types of plate boundaries (ridge, subduction, passive margins) has to be defined and seafloor ages must be given. A simple but interesting exercise consists in letting students build such an initial configuration: they must analyze a map of tectonic plates, choose a 2-D section and examine carefully a map of seafloor ages. Students mentioned that the exercise made them realize that the 3-D spherical structure of plate tectonics does not translate directly in a simple 2-D section, as opposed to what is usually shown in books. Physical parameters: e.g. mantle viscosity, number of layers to consider in the mantle (upper and lower mantle, possible asthenosphere), initial time and mantle temperature, have to be chosen, and students can use this virtual lab to see how different scenarios emerge when parameters are varied. Very importantly, the direct visualization of the mobility of plate

  14. Do changes in the frequency, magnitude and timing of extreme climatic events threaten the population viability of coastal birds?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Pol, Martijn; Ens, Bruno J.; Heg, Dik; Brouwer, Lyanne; Krol, Johan; Maier, Martin; Exo, Klaus-Michael; Oosterbeek, Kees; Lok, Tamar; Eising, Corine M.; Koffijberg, Kees

    P>1. Climate change encompasses changes in both the means and the extremes of climatic variables, but the population consequences of the latter are intrinsically difficult to study. 2. We investigated whether the frequency, magnitude and timing of rare but catastrophic flooding events have changed

  15. Through Layers of Mud and Time: Lacustrine Archives of Quaternary Climate Variation (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture) (United States)

    Fritz, Sherilyn Claire


    Lake sediments record climate dynamics and ecosystem response at resolutions ranging from sub-annual to millions of years, dependent upon on the age and depositional characteristics of the basin. Thus, they provide a rich archive for elucidating environmental dynamics at a range of temporal scales. In this lecture, I will discuss a selection of examples from lacustrine sequences in the Americas that provide insight into the magnitude, duration, forcing, and impacts of Quaternary climate variability. The first set of examples deals with hydroclimate variation during the Holocene in the North American continental interior. In agricultural regions, lake studies documented intervals of drought that were more persistent than any in recorded history, now referred to as "megadroughts". Subsequent tree-ring compilations have shown that these megadroughts were widespread throughout western NA during the last 1000 years. In the central Great Plains during Medieval times (~900-1300 CE), moisture deficits persisted for multiple decades and were sufficient to drop the water table, kill off native grassland vegetation, and mobilize sand dunes, as demonstrated by coupled lacustrine and geomorphic records. A network of late-Holocene lacustrine records spanning the Great Plains and northern Rocky Mountain regions shows that major climate excursions were synchronous across the northern tier of the continental interior, reflecting large-scale atmospheric dynamics driven by temperature variation in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Lake records also have been instrumental in documenting tropical moisture variation associated with fluctuations in the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM). High lake levels and wet periods in the tropical Andes are correlated with cold intervals in the North Atlantic region at multiple temporal scales, from orbital to millennial to centennial, reflecting intensification of the SASM. Large changes in moisture availability (P-E) occurred on ~100 ka

  16. MEVTV Workshop on Early Tectonic and Volcanic Evolution of Mars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frey, H.


    Although not ignored, the problems of the early tectonic and volcanic evolution of Mars have generally received less attention than those later in the evolution of the planet. Specifically, much attention was devoted to the evolution of the Tharsis region of Mars and to the planet itself at the time following the establishment of this major tectonic and volcanic province. By contrast, little attention was directed at fundamental questions, such as the conditions that led to the development of Tharsis and the cause of the basic fundamental dichotomy of the Martian crust. It was to address these and related questions of the earliest evolution of Mars that a workshop was organized under the auspices of the Mars: Evolution of Volcanism, Tectonism, and Volatiles (MEVTV) Program. Four sessions were held: crustal dichotomy; crustal differentiation/volcanism; Tharsis, Elysium, and Valles Marineris; and ridges and fault tectonics

  17. Planetary Geophysics and Tectonics (United States)

    Zuber, Maria


    The broad objective of this work is to improve understanding of the internal structures and thermal and stress histories of the solid planets by combining results from analytical and computational modeling, and geophysical data analysis of gravity, topography and tectonic surface structures. During the past year we performed two quite independent studies in the attempt to explain the Mariner 10 magnetic observations of Mercury. In the first we revisited the possibility of crustal remanence by studying the conditions under which one could break symmetry inherent in Runcorn's model of a uniformly magnetized shell to produce a remanent signal with a dipolar form. In the second we applied a thin shell dynamo model to evaluate the range of intensity/structure for which such a planetary configuration can produce a dipole field consistent with Mariner 10 results. In the next full proposal cycle we will: (1) develop numerical and analytical and models of thin shell dynamos to address the possible nature of Mercury s present-day magnetic field and the demise of Mars magnetic field; (2) study the effect of degree-1 mantle convection on a core dynamo as relevant to the early magnetic field of Mars; (3) develop models of how the deep mantles of terrestrial planets are perturbed by large impacts and address the consequences for mantle evolution; (4) study the structure, compensation, state of stress, and viscous relaxation of lunar basins, and address implications for the Moon s state of stress and thermal history by modeling and gravity/topography analysis; and (5) use a three-dimensional viscous relaxation model for a planet with generalized vertical viscosity distribution to study the degree-two components of the Moon's topography and gravity fields to constrain the primordial stress state and spatial heterogeneity of the crust and mantle.

  18. Regression and regression analysis time series prediction modeling on climate data of quetta, pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jafri, Y.Z.; Kamal, L.


    Various statistical techniques was used on five-year data from 1998-2002 of average humidity, rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The relationships to regression analysis time series (RATS) were developed for determining the overall trend of these climate parameters on the basis of which forecast models can be corrected and modified. We computed the coefficient of determination as a measure of goodness of fit, to our polynomial regression analysis time series (PRATS). The correlation to multiple linear regression (MLR) and multiple linear regression analysis time series (MLRATS) were also developed for deciphering the interdependence of weather parameters. Spearman's rand correlation and Goldfeld-Quandt test were used to check the uniformity or non-uniformity of variances in our fit to polynomial regression (PR). The Breusch-Pagan test was applied to MLR and MLRATS, respectively which yielded homoscedasticity. We also employed Bartlett's test for homogeneity of variances on a five-year data of rainfall and humidity, respectively which showed that the variances in rainfall data were not homogenous while in case of humidity, were homogenous. Our results on regression and regression analysis time series show the best fit to prediction modeling on climatic data of Quetta, Pakistan. (author)

  19. Drainage - Structure Correlation in tectonically active Regions: Case studies in the Bolivian and Colombian Andes (United States)

    Zeilinger, Gerold; Parra, Mauricio; Kober, Florian


    frontal thin-skinned Neogene and Paleogene domain (FR) and the more interior lower Cretaceous an Upper Paleozoic thick-skinned region (IR). The trend of higher order channels is, as expected, parallel to the structures in the interior parts and perpendicular in the frontal part. However, the trend of lower order channels reveal no directional correlation to the structural trend in the interior, but a significant correlation to the structures in the frontal range that suffered relatively to the interior domains younger deformation phases. We therefore postulate a dependency of the directional evolution of drainage patterns on the relative timing of tectonic activity. The only weakly preferred orientation of drainages in the interior parts (EC and IR) suggests a balance between structural control and drainage occupation, and higher maturity of the landscape. In contrast, the distinct pattern of drainages oblique to the structural grain in the frontal ranges (SA and FR) highlights the alignment of tributaries and suggests an ongoing tectonic control on drainage orientation. We test the hypothesis whether the correlation between the direction of small order rivers and the direction of structures can be used as a proxy for relative tectonic activity, which might be relevant in questions on 1) dominance of tectonics over climate, 2) dynamics of deformation propagation in fault-and-thrust-belts and 3) occurrence of higher erosion rates despite "limited" relief or threshold slopes. Ongoing efforts will investigate the possibility to quantify or compare relative tectonic activity across sites.

  20. Effects of climate and fire timing on nitrogen cycling and retention in chaparral watersheds (United States)

    Hanan, E. J.; Schimel, J.; Tague, C.


    Climate change models predict that interannual rainfall variability will increase in California over the next several decades; these changes are expected to alter fuel characteristics and fire regimes in chaparral. Fires uncouple N mobilization and uptake by increasing nitrification and destroying plant biomass. Following fire, heavy winter rains can leach N into streams, particularly from slopes that have been denuded. The extent to which N is transported from burned slopes to streams depends on how rapidly soil microbes metabolize N into mobile forms such as NO3-, and how rapidly recovering plants take up mineral N. However, the long-term impacts of a changing climate and fire regime on N dynamics remain unknown. To project the effects of these drivers, we combined empirical measurements with the ecohydrologic model RHESSys. Specifically, we measured inorganic N concentrations and microbial biomass in chaparral soils that burned 1, 4, 20 and 40 years prior to sampling. We then experimentally adjusted NH4+ concentration and pH in a factorial design, and incubated the treated soils for 8 weeks. Nitrification was highest in soils collected from the most recently burned sites, and was most powerfully constrained by NH4+. However, when NH4+was sufficiently high, pH determined the relative proportion of inorganic N that was nitrified. After incorporating these relationships into the RHESSys framework, we modeled mineralization, nitrification, N leaching, NPP, and plant uptake under a range of climate and fire timing scenarios. We considered a range of scenarios where fires were imposed either at the beginning or end of the growing season followed by 15 years of recovery, and considered 15 possible climate trajectories. Modeling results suggest that chaparral systems are vulnerable to rapid nitrification and leaching immediately after fire, however recovering plants rapidly immobilize soluble N under most climate scenarios. The strongest variability in NPP and plant N

  1. Space-time dependence between energy sources and climate related energy production (United States)

    Engeland, Kolbjorn; Borga, Marco; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Tøfte, Lena; Warland, Geir


    The European Renewable Energy Directive adopted in 2009 focuses on achieving a 20% share of renewable energy in the EU overall energy mix by 2020. A major part of renewable energy production is related to climate, called "climate related energy" (CRE) production. CRE production systems (wind, solar, and hydropower) are characterized by a large degree of intermittency and variability on both short and long time scales due to the natural variability of climate variables. The main strategies to handle the variability of CRE production include energy-storage, -transport, -diversity and -information (smart grids). The three first strategies aim to smooth out the intermittency and variability of CRE production in time and space whereas the last strategy aims to provide a more optimal interaction between energy production and demand, i.e. to smooth out the residual load (the difference between demand and production). In order to increase the CRE share in the electricity system, it is essential to understand the space-time co-variability between the weather variables and CRE production under both current and future climates. This study presents a review of the literature that searches to tackle these problems. It reveals that the majority of studies deals with either a single CRE source or with the combination of two CREs, mostly wind and solar. This may be due to the fact that the most advanced countries in terms of wind equipment have also very little hydropower potential (Denmark, Ireland or UK, for instance). Hydropower is characterized by both a large storage capacity and flexibility in electricity production, and has therefore a large potential for both balancing and storing energy from wind- and solar-power. Several studies look at how to better connect regions with large share of hydropower (e.g., Scandinavia and the Alps) to regions with high shares of wind- and solar-power (e.g., green battery North-Sea net). Considering time scales, various studies consider wind

  2. In a Time of Change: Integrating the Arts and Humanities with Climate Change Science in Alaska (United States)

    Leigh, M.; Golux, S.; Franzen, K.


    The arts and humanities have a powerful capacity to create lines of communication between the public, policy and scientific spheres. A growing network of visual and performing artists, writers and scientists has been actively working together since 2007 to integrate scientific and artistic perspectives on climate change in interior Alaska. These efforts have involved field workshops and collaborative creative processes culminating in public performances and a visual art exhibit. The most recent multimedia event was entitled In a Time of Change: Envisioning the Future, and challenged artists and scientists to consider future scenarios of climate change. This event included a public performance featuring original theatre, modern dance, Alaska Native Dance, poetry and music that was presented concurrently with an art exhibit featuring original works by 24 Alaskan visual artists. A related effort targeted K12 students, through an early college course entitled Climate Change and Creative Expression, which was offered to high school students at a predominantly Alaska Native charter school and integrated climate change science, creative writing, theatre and dance. Our program at Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site is just one of many successful efforts to integrate arts and humanities with science within and beyond the NSF LTER Program. The efforts of various LTER sites to engage the arts and humanities with science, the public and policymakers have successfully generated excitement, facilitated mutual understanding, and promoted meaningful dialogue on issues facing science and society. The future outlook for integration of arts and humanities with science appears promising, with increasing interest from artists, scientists and scientific funding agencies.

  3. Farmer response to climatic and agricultural market drivers: characteristic time scales and sensitivities (United States)

    Wurster, P. M.; Maneta, M. P.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Beguería, S.; Silverman, N. L.; Holden, Z.


    Agriculture in the intermountain western United States is dominated by extensive farming and ranching, mostly reliant on rainfed crops and therefore very exposed to precipitation shortfalls. It is also poorly diversified, dominated by five or six major grain crops, which makes it vulnerable to changes in agricultural markets. The economy of the region is very reliant on this type of agriculture, making the entire economy vulnerable to climatic and market fluctuations. Western agriculture is also of significant importance for national food security. Resource managers in the region are increasingly concerned with the impacts that more frequent and severe droughts, or the collapse of crop prices, may have on producers and food production. Effective resource management requires an understanding not only of the regional impact of adverse climatic and market events, but also of which geographic areas are most vulnerable, and why. Unfortunately, few studies exist that look into how farmers in different geographic areas respond to climate and market drivers. In this study we analyze the influence of precipitation and crop price anomalies on crop production, and map the characteristic time scale of these anomalies that correlate best with production anomalies for the 56 counties of Montana, U.S.A. We conduct this analysis using the standardized precipitation index (SPI), and defining a standardized crop value index (SCVI) and a standardized crop production index (SCPI). We use 38 years of data to calculate precipitation anomalies at monthly time scales and annual data to calculate crop price and production anomalies. The standardization of the indices allows for straightforward comparison of the relative influence of climatic and market fluctuations on production anomalies. We apply our methodology to winter wheat, spring durum wheat, barley, alfalfa, and beets which are the most valuable crops produced in the state. Results from this study show that precipitation anomalies

  4. Is there a connection between Earth's core and climate at multidecadal time scales? (United States)

    Lambert, Sébastien; Marcus, Steven; de Viron, Olivier


    The length-of-day (LOD) undergoes multidecadal variations of several milliseconds (ms) attributed to changes in the fluid outer core angular momentum. These variations resemble a quasi-periodic oscillation of duration 60 to 70 years, although the periodicity (and its accurate length) are disputable because of the relatively short observational time span and the lower quality of the observations before the 20th century. Interestingly, similar variations show up in various measured or reconstructed climate indices including the sea surface (SST) and surface air (SAT) temperatures. It has been shown in several studies that LOD variations lead SST and SAT variations by a few years. No clear scenarios have been raised so far to explain the link between external, astronomical forcing (e.g., Solar wind), Earth's rotation (core-driven torsional) oscillations, and Earth's surface processes (climate variations) at these time scales. Accumulating evidence, however, suggests the centrifugal tides generated by multidecadal LOD variations as a 'valve' to control the transfer of thermal energy from the lithosphere to the surface via geothermal fluxes. This hypothesis is supported by recent studies reporting significant correlations between tidal and rotational excitation and seafloor and surface volcanism. In this study, we extend recent works from us and other independent authors by re-assessing the correlations between multidecadal LOD, climate indices, Solar and magnetic activities, as well as gridded data including SST, SAT, and cloud cover. We pay a special attention to the time lags: when a significant correlation is found, the value of the lag may help to discriminate between various possible scenarios. We locate some `hot spots', particularly in the Atlantic ocean and along the trajectory of the upper branch of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), where the 70-yr oscillation is strongly marked. In addition, we discuss the possibility for centrifugal

  5. The relative roles of local climate adaptation and phylogeny in determining leaf-out timing of temperate tree species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elsa Desnoues


    Full Text Available Background Leaf out times of temperate forest trees are a prominent determinant of global carbon dynamics throughout the year. Abiotic cues of leaf emergence are well studied but investigation of the relative roles of shared evolutionary history (phylogeny and local adaptation to climate in determining the species-level responses to these cues is needed to better apprehend the effect of global change on leaf emergence. We explored the relative importance of phylogeny and climate in determining the innate leaf out phenology across the temperate biome. Methods We used an extensive dataset of leaf-out dates of 1126 temperate woody species grown in eight Northern Hemisphere common gardens. For these species, information on the native climate and phylogenetic position was collected. Using linear regression analyses, we examine the relative effect of climate variables and phylogeny on leaf out variation among species. Results Climate variables explained twice as much variation in leaf out timing as phylogenetic information, a process that was driven primarily by the complex interactive effects of multiple climate variables. Although the primary climate factors explaining species-level variation in leaf-out timing varied drastically across different families, our analyses reveal that local adaptation plays a stronger role than common evolutionary history in determining tree phenology across the temperate biome. Conclusions In the long-term, the direct effects of physiological adaptation to abiotic effects of climate change on forest phenology are likely to outweigh the indirect effects mediated through changes in tree species composition.

  6. Hot-spot tectonics on Io (United States)

    Mcewen, A. S.


    The thesis is that extensional tectonics and low-angle detachment faults probably occur on Io in association with the hot spots. These processes may occur on a much shorter timescale on Ion than on Earth, so that Io could be a natural laboratory for the study of thermotectonics. Furthermore, studies of heat and detachment in crustal extension on Earth and the other terresrial planets (especially Venus and Mars) may provide analogs to processes on Io. The geology of Io is dominated by volcanism and hot spots, most likely the result of tidal heating. Hot spots cover 1 to 2% of Io's surface, radiating at temperatures typically from 200 to 400 K, and occasionally up to 700K. Heat loss from the largest hot spots on Io, such as Loki Patera, is about 300 times the heat loss from Yellowstone, so a tremendous quantity of energy is available for volcanic and tectonic work. Active volcanism on Io results in a resurfacing rate as high as 10 cm per year, yet many structural features are apparent on the surface. Therefore, the tectonics must be highly active.

  7. A palaeomagnetic perspective of Precambrian tectonic styles (United States)

    Schmidt, P. W.; Embleton, B. J. J.


    The considerable success derived from palaeomagnetic studies of Phanerozoic rocks with respect to the tectonic styles of continental drift and plate tectonics, etc., have not been repeated by the many palaeomagnetic studies of Precambrian rocks. There are 30 years of research with results covering the major continents for Precambrian times that overlap considerably yet there is no concensus. There is good evidence that the usual assumptions employed by palaeomagnetism are valid for the Precambrian. The exisence of magnetic reversals during the Precambrian, for instance, is difficult to explain except in terms of a geomagnetic field that was predominantly dipolar in nature. It is a small concession to extend this notion of the Precambrian geomagnetic field to include its alignment with the Earth's spin axis and the other virtues of an axial geocentric dipole that characterize the recent geomagnetic field. In terms of greenstone terranes it is obvious that tectonic models postulated to explain these observations are paramount in understanding Precambrian geology. What relevance the current geographical relationships of continents have with their Precambrian relationships remains a paradox, but it would seem that the ensialic model for the development of greenstone terranes is favored by the Precambrian palaeomagnetic data.

  8. Microclimate and architectural tectonic: vernacular floating house resilience in Seberang Ulu 1, Palembang (United States)

    Puspitasari, P.; Kadri, T.; Indartoyo, I.; Kusumawati, L.


    This paper aims to describe the results of preliminary research on floating houses on the Musi River, Seberang Ulu 1, Palembang, focused on studying the influence of microclimates to the tectonics of Rumah Rakit (Floating House). The increase of water surface due to global warming will increase the need of using floating house typology in the future. The description of the inhabitants’ experiences on applying technics to create vernacular floating houses is considered as significant knowledge to develop advance technology on the basis of local characteristic. Vernacular floating houses resilience consists of natural experiences of inhabitants in adapting their daily activities to the characteristic of local climate. By using qualitative approach, the Rumah Rakit inhabitants’ verbal information in this article becomes the main aspect in exploring local knowledge. At the end, the conceptual model of vernacular Rumah Rakit in Seberang Ulu 1, Palembang is formulated, in terms of building architectural tectonic that is closely related to the local climate characteristic. The knowledge can be utilized in the context of rehabilitation or preservation of such architectural objects that are their existences tend to be extinct at this time.

  9. Impact of climate change on the timing of strawberry phenological processes in the Baltic States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Līga Bethere


    Full Text Available Climate change has been shown to impact aspects of agriculture and phenology. This study aims to quantify changes in the timing of garden strawberry blooms and harvests in the Baltic States using Regional Climate Models (RCMs. First, parameters for a strawberry phenology model based on the growing degree day (GDD methodology were determined. Growing degree days were calculated using a modified sine wave method that estimates the diurnal temperature cycle from the daily maximum and minimum temperature. Model parameters include the base temperature and the required cumulative GDD sum, estimated from phenological and meteorological observations in Latvia for the years 2010–2013 via iterative calibration. Then an ensemble of bias-corrected RCM results (ENSEMBLES project was used as input to the phenological model to estimate the timing of strawberry phenological processes for the years 1951–2099. The results clearly show that strawberry phenological processes can be expected to occur earlier in the future, with a significant change in regional patterns. Differences between coastal and inland regions are expected to decrease over time. The uncertainty of the results was estimated using the RCM ensemble spread, with northern coastal locations showing the largest spread.

  10. Sensitivity of Catchment Transit Times to Rainfall Variability Under Present and Future Climates (United States)

    Wilusz, Daniel C.; Harman, Ciaran J.; Ball, William P.


    Hydrologists have a relatively good understanding of how rainfall variability shapes the catchment hydrograph, a reflection of the celerity of hydraulic head propagation. Much less is known about the influence of rainfall variability on catchment transit times, a reflection of water velocities that control solute transport. This work uses catchment-scale lumped parameter models to decompose the relationship between rainfall variability and an important metric of transit times, the time-varying fraction of young water (environmental tracer data from neighboring headwater catchments in Plynlimon, Wales from 1999 to 2008. At both sites, the mean annual FYW increased more than 13 percentage points from the driest to the wettest year. Yearly mean rainfall explained most between-year variation, but certain signatures of rainfall pattern were also associated with higher FYW including: more clustered storms, more negatively skewed storms, and higher covariance between daily rainfall and discharge. We show that these signatures are symptomatic of an "inverse storage effect" that may be common among watersheds. Looking to the future, changes in rainfall due to projected climate change caused an up to 19 percentage point increase in simulated mean winter FYW and similarly large decreases in the mean summer FYW. Thus, climate change could seasonally alter the ages of water in streams at these sites, with concomitant impacts on water quality.

  11. Plate tectonics in the late Paleozoic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathew Domeier


    Full Text Available As the chronicle of plate motions through time, paleogeography is fundamental to our understanding of plate tectonics and its role in shaping the geology of the present-day. To properly appreciate the history of tectonics—and its influence on the deep Earth and climate—it is imperative to seek an accurate and global model of paleogeography. However, owing to the incessant loss of oceanic lithosphere through subduction, the paleogeographic reconstruction of ‘full-plates’ (including oceanic lithosphere becomes increasingly challenging with age. Prior to 150 Ma ∼60% of the lithosphere is missing and reconstructions are developed without explicit regard for oceanic lithosphere or plate tectonic principles; in effect, reflecting the earlier mobilistic paradigm of continental drift. Although these ‘continental’ reconstructions have been immensely useful, the next-generation of mantle models requires global plate kinematic descriptions with full-plate reconstructions. Moreover, in disregarding (or only loosely applying plate tectonic rules, continental reconstructions fail to take advantage of a wealth of additional information in the form of practical constraints. Following a series of new developments, both in geodynamic theory and analytical tools, it is now feasible to construct full-plate models that lend themselves to testing by the wider Earth-science community. Such a model is presented here for the late Paleozoic (410–250 Ma together with a review of the underlying data. Although we expect this model to be particularly useful for numerical mantle modeling, we hope that it will also serve as a general framework for understanding late Paleozoic tectonics, one on which future improvements can be built and further tested.

  12. Climate Variable is Time-Averaged: Dealing with Uncertainty of Paleoclimatic Record Caused by Smoothening of Noisy Variations (United States)

    Umemura, K.; Ebina, K.


    Climate is the average of weather over some time period and shows characteristic behavior in each time scale. In paleoclimatic research, values of climate variables are measured from proxies that give time series of time-averaged variables. Therefore, understanding the dynamics of time-averaged variable is important to investigate climate variations thorough different time scales. In our recent study, we formulated how stochastic dynamics changes corresponding to averaging time intervals using one dimensional first order stochastic differential equation which contains parametrically controlled terms of deterministic single-well or double-well potential force and random force. The dynamics of time-averaged variable is described by conditional probability density function. In the case of single-well, the function is analytically derived as normal distribution with scaling parameters. In the case of double-well potential, the function is obtained as skew generalized normal distribution function through numerical simulations. The mathematical framework of stochastic dynamics of time-averaged variable is general and applicable to analysis of many kinds of climate time series data. In this study, we apply the above framework to the analysis of proxy data from ice core and discuss about time scaling of the past climate variations. We test several models to infer the optimal model description for the data.

  13. Climate and humans set the place and time of Proboscidean extinction in late Quaternary of South America

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus Souza; Nogues, David Bravo; Terribile, Levi Carina


    on scattered patches of suitable habitats (i.e., refugia) around 11 ka, period in which the earliest humans potentially arrived in South America, increasing the population density thereafter. Under this overall unsuitable climatic condition at 11 ka, both Proboscideans would be extinct after around 550 years...... of human hunting, but if climatic conditions were suitable like in Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the time-for-extinction would be at least 3 times longer under the same human hunting pressures. Thus, our findings support the ``Broken Zig-Zag'' model and show that South American Proboscideans might have been......The late Quaternary extinctions have been widely debated for a long time, but the varying magnitude of human vs. climate change impacts across time and space is still an unresolved question. Here we assess the geographic range shifts in response to climate change based on Ecological Niche Models...

  14. Climate change (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.


    Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

  15. ICUD-0420 Testing high resolution synthetic rainfall time series representing current and future climates on CSO and other indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Davidsen, S.; Löwe, Roland


    Combined sewer systems have a long technical lifetime, thus climate change must be taken into consideration when designing new CSO structures, basins, and pipe system enhancements. At the same time, the performance is highly dependent on antecedent conditions in the sewer system and is therefore...... with the physical properties of the catchment and the expectations to climate change....... best modelled using LTS. In the present study, we calculate indicators related to CSO statistics using synthetic time series created with different methodologies for both present and future climatic conditions. The methodology for synthetic rainfall generation influences the obtained results along...

  16. Pangea: Geochronological correlation of successive environmental and strati-tectonic phases in Europe and Australia (United States)

    Veevers, J. J.


    A robust geochronology based on U-Pb zircon ages in Australia (n = 158) and Europe (n = 376) provides a rigorous test of (1) the model of a climatic-tectonic cycle of a single continent (Pangea) and ocean (Panthalassa) with an icehouse climate alternating with many continents and oceans with a greenhouse climate, and (2) the idea of coeval (320 to 300 Ma) right-lateral shear events in Eastern Australia and Europe followed by earliest Permian (~ 300 Ma) extension. During Pangean assembly, stress from the oblique collision of Laurussia and Gondwanaland bent the oroclines in Iberia, drove the intense shortening in Central Australia and terminal megakinking in the Lachlan orogen, and possibly drove the bending of oroclines in Eastern Australia. Extension I (~ 300 Ma, Carboniferous/Permian) followed the first outburst of self-induced (monsoonal) heat from the newly assembled Pangea, and generated fresh accommodation space for globally synchronous sedimentary successions, including the glacial base and succeeding coals of the Gondwana facies. Extension was relieved by sags on (isotropic) cratons and rifts on (anisotropic) fold belts with voluminous volcanics. In Europe, the Variscan orogen was cut into right-lateral magmatic rifts and the craton sagged to accumulate magmatic basins; likewise, the convergent margin of Eastern Australia was cut into a long magmatic rift and the cratonic foreland covered by the Gondwana facies. The end-Permian (251 Ma) sea-level drawdown, climate warming, and severe biotic extinction, with no obvious tectonic cause, were responsible for the Early-Middle Triassic coal gap. A second outburst of heat drove Extension II (235 Ma, Carnian, Late Triassic), expressed as rifts and sags that accumulated a second set of coal-bearing strata. At this time of its largest extent, Pangea underwent incipient breakup by rifting of the Atlantic Margins of North America, Morocco, and Western Europe that developed into 190 Ma drifting.

  17. Climate effects on late-season flight times of Massachusetts butterflies (United States)

    Zipf, L.; Williams, E. H.; Primack, R. B.; Stichter, S.


    Although the responses of living organisms to climate change are being widely investigated, little attention has been given to such effects late in the growing season. We studied the late-season flight times of 20 species of butterflies in a geographically limited region, the state of Massachusetts in the USA, by examining change in dates of flight over a 22-year period and in response to average monthly temperature and precipitation. By analyzing the last 10% of each year's observations reported by observers of the Massachusetts Butterfly Club, we found that seven species remain in flight significantly later into the fall than they did two decades earlier, while two species show reduced late-season flight. Life history characteristics of the species, particularly voltinism and average fall flight dates, influenced whether warmer fall months led to increases or decreases in fall flight. Warmer Novembers often led to later fall flight, and wetter Augusts usually extended fall flight. These results document the effects of climate on late-season flight times of butterflies, add to an understanding of how warmer autumn conditions alter the phenology of different butterfly species, and show the usefulness of citizen science data.

  18. Tectonics: The meaning of form

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Karl; Brandt, Per Aage

    Tectonics – The meaning of form deals with one of the core topics of architecture: the relationship between form and content. In the world of architecture, form is not only made from brick, glass and wood. Form means something. When a material is processed with sufficient technical skill and insi......Tectonics – The meaning of form deals with one of the core topics of architecture: the relationship between form and content. In the world of architecture, form is not only made from brick, glass and wood. Form means something. When a material is processed with sufficient technical skill...... perspectives. You can read the chapters in any order you like – from the beginning, end or the middle. There is no correct order. The project is methodologically inductive: the more essays you read, the broader your knowledge of tectonics get....

  19. Extracting Leading Nonlinear Modes of Changing Climate From Global SST Time Series (United States)

    Mukhin, D.; Gavrilov, A.; Loskutov, E. M.; Feigin, A. M.; Kurths, J.


    Data-driven modeling of climate requires adequate principal variables extracted from observed high-dimensional data. For constructing such variables it is needed to find spatial-temporal patterns explaining a substantial part of the variability and comprising all dynamically related time series from the data. The difficulties of this task rise from the nonlinearity and non-stationarity of the climate dynamical system. The nonlinearity leads to insufficiency of linear methods of data decomposition for separating different processes entangled in the observed time series. On the other hand, various forcings, both anthropogenic and natural, make the dynamics non-stationary, and we should be able to describe the response of the system to such forcings in order to separate the modes explaining the internal variability. The method we present is aimed to overcome both these problems. The method is based on the Nonlinear Dynamical Mode (NDM) decomposition [1,2], but takes into account external forcing signals. An each mode depends on hidden, unknown a priori, time series which, together with external forcing time series, are mapped onto data space. Finding both the hidden signals and the mapping allows us to study the evolution of the modes' structure in changing external conditions and to compare the roles of the internal variability and forcing in the observed behavior. The method is used for extracting of the principal modes of SST variability on inter-annual and multidecadal time scales accounting the external forcings such as CO2, variations of the solar activity and volcanic activity. The structure of the revealed teleconnection patterns as well as their forecast under different CO2 emission scenarios are discussed.[1] Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. [2] Gavrilov, A., Mukhin, D., Loskutov, E., Volodin, E., Feigin, A., & Kurths, J. (2016

  20. Phase Two European Energy Policy Project. European energy and climate policy - Time for something new

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helm, Dieter


    During 2014, European energy and climate change policy has moved centre stage. The annexation of Crimea and the destabilization of Eastern Ukraine have raised tensions with Russia to levels not seen since the Cold War. The EU has responded with an energy security plan, and sanctions. Developments elsewhere have further complicated matters. In the Middle East, the rapid advances of ISIS (now called the Islamic State), the internal conflicts in Libya, the war in Gaza, and the continuing negotiations with Iran on nuclear matters suggest that early optimism about the 'Arab Spring' was at best misplaced, and chronic instability has returned. In the US, the energy revolution continues to change the geopolitics of oil and gas, with the early skepticism about the scale of the changes and the shift towards North American energy independence giving way to recognition that the changes are permanent and profound - for both global energy markets and Europe. The full implications of the end of the commodity super-cycle are both profound for European energy policy and very poorly understood. Commodity prices have tumbled, with oil prices falling below $80 a barrel. On climate change, there is almost certainly not going to be a continuation of the Kyoto style international framework after the Paris conference in December 2015. Chinese emissions per head have now exceeded those of the Europeans, and it is at last being recognized that the climate change problem is one in which China, not the EU, is centre stage. China has announced that it does not intend to cap its carbon emissions until after 2030, by which time they may peak anyway - from a very much higher base after another decade and a half of increases. The Paris conference will see a series of 'pledges' and 'commitments' very much on the pattern of the Copenhagen Accord, not the credible, enforceable legally binding measures that had been proposed at the Durban Conference of the Parties in 2011

  1. Coupling mammalian demography to climate through satellite time series of plant phenology (United States)

    Stoner, D.; Sexton, J. O.; Nagol, J. R.; Ironside, K.; Choate, D.; Longshore, K.; Edwards, T., Jr.


    The seasonality of plant productivity governs the demography of primary and secondary consumers, and in arid ecosystems primary production is constrained by water availability. We relate the behavior, demography, and spatial distribution of large mammalian herbivores and their principal predator to remotely sensed indices of climate and vegetation across the western United States from 2000-2014. Terrain and plant community composition moderate the effects of climatological drought on primary productivity, resulting in spatial variation in ecosystem susceptibility to water stress. Herbivores track these patterns through habitat selection during key periods such as birthing and migration. Across a broad climatological gradient, timing of the start of growing season explains 75% of the variation in herbivore birth timing and 56% of the variation in neonatal survival rates. Initiation of autumn migration corresponds with the end of the growing season. Although indirectly coupled to primary production, carnivore home range size and population density are strongly correlated with plant productivity and growing-season length. Satellite measures of green reflectance during the peak of the growing season explain over 84% of the variation in carnivore home range size and 59% of the variation in density. Climate projections for the western United States predict warming temperatures and shifts in the timing and form of precipitation. Our analyses suggest that increased climatological variability will contribute to fluctuations in the composition and phenology of plant communities. These changes will propagate through consumer trophic levels, manifesting as increased home range area, shifts in the timing of migration, and greater volatility in large mammal populations. Combined with expansion and amplification of human land uses, these changes will likely have economic implications stemming from increased human-wildlife conflict and loss of ecosystem services.

  2. Climate. The earth and its atmosphere in the changing times. 3. upd. ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchal, Christoph; Schoenwiese, Christian-Dietrich


    The Climate Change Challenge. Throughout the world, great efforts are being made to better understanding the development of the global climate and to model future trends. What characterizes the weather what the climate? How did the climate history of the Earth? What factors are affecting the climate? In the third, updated edition 2016 of the widespread attractive and scientifically-based four-volume nonfiction series ENERGY, AIR, POWER and MOBILITY which clearly explained basic knowledge of the climate system is expanded to include the latest information about the IPCC and keep up-to-date insight into modern research, especially the REKLIM project of the Helmholtz Association of German research Centres. [de

  3. Climate Change (United States)

    ... in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, or ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate ...

  4. Changes in population susceptibility to heat and cold over time: assessing adaptation to climate change. (United States)

    Arbuthnott, Katherine; Hajat, Shakoor; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris


    In the context of a warming climate and increasing urbanisation (with the associated urban heat island effect), interest in understanding temperature related health effects is growing. Previous reviews have examined how the temperature-mortality relationship varies by geographical location. There have been no reviews examining the empirical evidence for changes in population susceptibility to the effects of heat and/or cold over time. The objective of this paper is to review studies which have specifically examined variations in temperature related mortality risks over the 20(th) and 21(st) centuries and determine whether population adaptation to heat and/or cold has occurred. We searched five electronic databases combining search terms for three main concepts: temperature, health outcomes and changes in vulnerability or adaptation. Studies included were those which quantified the risk of heat related mortality with changing ambient temperature in a specific location over time, or those which compared mortality outcomes between two different extreme temperature events (heatwaves) in one location. The electronic searches returned 9183 titles and abstracts, of which eleven studies examining the effects of ambient temperature over time were included and six studies comparing the effect of different heatwaves at discrete time points were included. Of the eleven papers that quantified the risk of, or absolute heat related mortality over time, ten found a decrease in susceptibility over time of which five found the decrease to be significant. The magnitude of the decrease varied by location. Only two studies attempted to quantitatively attribute changes in susceptibility to specific adaptive measures and found no significant association between the risk of heat related mortality and air conditioning prevalence within or between cities over time. Four of the six papers examining effects of heatwaves found a decrease in expected mortality in later years. Five studies

  5. Greenhouse gas performance of biochemical biodiesel production from straw: soil organic carbon changes and time-dependent climate impact. (United States)

    Karlsson, Hanna; Ahlgren, Serina; Sandgren, Mats; Passoth, Volkmar; Wallberg, Ola; Hansson, Per-Anders


    Use of bio-based diesel is increasing in Europe. It is currently produced from oilseed crops, but can also be generated from lignocellulosic biomass such as straw. However, removing straw affects soil organic carbon (SOC), with potential consequences for the climate impact of the biofuel. This study assessed the climate impacts and energy balance of biodiesel production from straw using oleaginous yeast, with subsequent biogas production from the residues, with particular emphasis on SOC changes over time. It also explored the impact of four different scenarios for returning the lignin fraction of the biomass to soil to mitigate SOC changes. Climate impact was assessed using two methods, global warming potential (GWP) and a time-dependent temperature model (∆T s ) that describes changes in mean global surface temperature as a function of time or absolute temperature change potential (AGTP). Straw-derived biodiesel reduced GWP by 33-80% compared with fossil fuels and primary fossil energy use for biodiesel production was 0.33-0.80 MJ prim /MJ, depending on the scenario studied. Simulations using the time-dependent temperature model showed that a scenario where all straw fractions were converted to energy carriers and no lignin was returned to soil resulted in the highest avoided climate impact. The SOC changes due to straw removal had a large impact on the results, both when using GWP and the time-dependent temperature model. In a climate perspective, it is preferable to combust straw lignin to produce electricity rather than returning it to the soil if the excess electricity replaces natural gas electricity, according to results from both GWP and time-dependent temperature modelling. Using different methods to assess climate impact did not change the ranking between the scenarios, but the time-dependent temperature model provided information about system behaviour over time that can be important for evaluation of biofuel systems, particularly in relation to

  6. A New Sulfur and Carbon Degassing Inventory for the Southern Central American Volcanic Arc: The Importance of Accurate Time-Series Data Sets and Possible Tectonic Processes Responsible for Temporal Variations in Arc-Scale Volatile Emissions (United States)

    de Moor, J. M.; Kern, C.; Avard, G.; Muller, C.; Aiuppa, A.; Saballos, A.; Ibarra, M.; LaFemina, P.; Protti, M.; Fischer, T. P.


    This work presents a new database of SO2 and CO2 fluxes from the Southern Central American Volcanic Arc (SCAVA) for the period 2015-2016. We report ˜300 SO2 flux measurements from 10 volcanoes and gas ratios from 11 volcanoes in Costa Rica and Nicaragua representing the most extensive available assessment of this ˜500 km arc segment. The SO2 flux from SCAVA is estimated at 6,240 ± 1,150 T/d, about a factor of three higher than previous estimations (1972-2013). We attribute this increase in part to our more complete assessment of the arc. Another consideration in interpreting the difference is the context of increased volcanic activity, as there were more eruptions in 2015-2016 than in any period since ˜1980. A potential explanation for increased degassing and volcanic activity is a change in crustal stress regime (from compression to extension, opening volcanic conduits) following two large (Mw > 7) earthquakes in the region in 2012. The CO2 flux from the arc is estimated at 22,500 ± 4,900 T/d, which is equal to or greater than estimates of C input into the SCAVA subduction zone. Time-series data sets for arc degassing need to be improved in temporal and spatial coverage to robustly constrain volatile budgets and tectonic controls. Arc volatile budgets are strongly influenced by short-lived degassing events and arc systems likely display significant short-term variations in volatile output, calling for expansion of nascent geochemical monitoring networks to achieve spatial and temporal coverage similar to traditional geophysical networks.

  7. Climate model assessment of changes in winter-spring streamflow timing over North America (United States)

    Kam, Jonghun; Knutson, Thomas R.; Milly, Paul C. D.


    Over regions where snow-melt runoff substantially contributes to winter-spring streamflows, warming can accelerate snow melt and reduce dry-season streamflows. However, conclusive detection of changes and attribution to anthropogenic forcing is hindered by brevity of observational records, model uncertainty, and uncertainty concerning internal variability. In this study, a detection/attribution of changes in mid-latitude North American winter-spring streamflow timing is examined using nine global climate models under multiple forcing scenarios. In this study, robustness across models, start/end dates for trends, and assumptions about internal variability is evaluated. Marginal evidence for an emerging detectable anthropogenic influence (according to four or five of nine models) is found in the north-central U.S., where winter-spring streamflows have been coming earlier. Weaker indications of detectable anthropogenic influence (three of nine models) are found in the mountainous western U.S./southwestern Canada and in extreme northeastern U.S./Canadian Maritimes. In the former region, a recent shift toward later streamflows has rendered the full-record trend toward earlier streamflows only marginally significant, with possible implications for previously published climate change detection findings for streamflow timing in this region. In the latter region, no forced model shows as large a shift toward earlier streamflow timing as the detectable observed shift. In other (including warm, snow-free) regions, observed trends are typically not detectable, although in the U.S. central plains we find detectable delays in streamflow, which are inconsistent with forced model experiments.

  8. Using Just in Time Teaching in a Global Climate Change Course to Address Misconceptions (United States)

    Schuenemann, K. C.


    Just in Time Teaching (JiTT) is employed in an introductory Global Climate Change college course with the intention of addressing common misconceptions and climate myths. Students enter the course with a variety of prior knowledge and opinions on global warming, and JiTT can be used as a constructivist pedagogical approach to make use of this prior knowledge. Students are asked to watch a short video or do a reading, sometimes screen capture videos created by the professor as review of material from the previous class, a video available on the web from NASA or NOAA, for example, or a reading from an online article or their textbook. After the video or reading, students answer a question carefully designed to pry at a common misconception, or simply are asked for the 'muddiest point' that remains on the concept. This assignment is done the night before class using a web program. The program aggregates the answers in an organized way so the professor can use the answers to design the day's lesson to address common misconceptions or concerns students displayed in their answers, as well as quickly assign participation credit to students who completed the assignment. On the other hand, if students display that they have already mastered the material, the professor can confidently move on to the next concept. The JiTT pedagogical method personalizes each lecture period to the students in that particular class for maximum efficiency while catching and fixing misconceptions in a timely manner. This technique requires students to spend time with the material outside of class, acts as review of important concepts, and increases engagement in class due to the personalization of the course. Evaluation results from use of this technique will be presented. Examples of successful JiTT videos, questions, student answers, and techniques for addressing misconceptions during lecture will also be presented with the intention that instructors can easily apply this technique to their

  9. Dynamic data analysis of climate and recharge conditions over time in the Edwards Aquifer, Texas (United States)

    Pierce, S. A.; Collins, J.; Banner, J.


    Understanding the temporal patterns in datasets related to climate, recharge, and water resource conditions is important for informing water management and policy decisions. Data analysis and pipelines for evaluating these disparate sources of information are challenging to set up and rely on emerging informatics tools to complete. This project gathers data from both historical and recent sources for the Edwards Aquifer of central Texas. The Edwards faces a unique array of challenges, as it is composed of karst limestone, is susceptible to contaminants and climate change, and is expected to supply water for a rapidly growing population. Given these challenges, new approaches to integrating data will be particularly important. Case study data from the Edwards is used to evaluate aquifer and hydrologic system conditions over time as well as to discover patterns and possible relationships across the information sources. Prior research that evaluated trends in discharge and recharge of the aquifer is revisited by considering new data from 1992-2015, and the sustainability of the Edwards as a water resource within the more recent time period is addressed. Reusable and shareable analytical data pipelines are constructed using Jupyter Notebooks and Python libraries, and an interactive visualization is implemented with the information. In addition to the data sources that are utilized for the water balance analyses, the Global Surface Water Monitoring System from the University of Minnesota, a tool that integrates a wide number of satellite datasets with known surface water dynamics and machine learning, is used to evaluate water body persistence and change over time at regional scales. Preliminary results indicate that surface water body over the Edwards with differing aerial extents are declining, excepting some dam-controlled lakes in the region. Other existing tools and machine learning applications are also considered. Results are useful to the Texas Water Research

  10. How can streamflow and climate-landscape data be used to estimate baseflow mean response time? (United States)

    Zhang, Runrun; Chen, Xi; Zhang, Zhicai; Soulsby, Chris; Gao, Man


    Mean response time (MRT) is a metric describing the propagation of catchment hydraulic behavior that reflects both hydro-climatic conditions and catchment characteristics. To provide a comprehensive understanding of catchment response over a longer-time scale for hydraulic processes, the MRT function for baseflow generation was derived using an instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) model that describes the subsurface response to effective rainfall inputs. IUH parameters were estimated based on the "match test" between the autocorrelation function (ACFs) derived from the filtered base flow time series and from the IUH parameters, under the GLUE framework. Regionalization of MRT was conducted using estimates and hydroclimate-landscape indices in 22 sub-basins of the Jinghe River Basin (JRB) in the Loess Plateau of northwest China. Results indicate there is strong equifinality in determination of the best parameter sets but the median values of the MRT estimates are relatively stable in the acceptable range of the parameters. MRTs vary markedly over the studied sub-basins, ranging from tens of days to more than a year. Climate, topography and geomorphology were identified as three first-order controls on recharge-baseflow response processes. Human activities involving the cultivation of permanent crops may elongate the baseflow MRT and hence increase the dynamic storage. Cross validation suggests the model can be used to estimate MRTs in ungauged catchments in similar regions of throughout the Loess Plateau. The proposed method provides a systematic approach for MRT estimation and regionalization in terms of hydroclimate and catchment characteristics, which is helpful in the sustainable water resources utilization and ecological protection in the Loess Plateau.

  11. Global Time-Variable Gravity and its Geophysical/Climatic Connections (United States)

    Chao, Benjamin F.


    Any large mass transport in the Earth system produces changes in the gravity field. Low harmonic degree components of such variations have been observed by the satellite-laser-ranging (SLR) technique, particularly in 52, the Earth's dynamic oblateness. 52 has long been observed to undergo a slight decrease due to the post-glacial rebound of the mantle -- until around 1998, when it switched quite suddenly to an increase trend which continued to 2001 before sharply turning back to normal , signifying a large change in global mass distribution whose 52 effect overshadows that of the post-glacial rebound over interannual timescales. Intriguing evidences have been found in the Ocean water distribution, especially related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the extratropical Pacific basins, that may be responsible for this 52 anomaly. Besides the lowest-degree 52, recent updates in the SLR-derived time series of the Earth's low-degree gravity components also show shorter wavelength zonal and other longitudinal signals. While the formal uncertainty of these terms is significantly higher than that for 52, some of these series have significant signal that appears to be climatic in origin. For example, there is a significant correlation of the sectoral S2,2 with the Tahiti-Darwin Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), but preceding SO1 by about 1 year. Similar cases demonstrate the utility of assessing the mass component of climate variations. We will present these intriguing results.

  12. Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time (United States)

    Sarah C. Elmendorf; Gregory H.R. Henry; Robert D. Hollister; Robert G. Björk; Anne D. Bjorkman; Terry V. Callaghan; [and others] NO-VALUE; William Gould; Joel Mercado


    Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty...

  13. Including Fossils in Phylogenetic Climate Reconstructions: A Deep Time Perspective on the Climatic Niche Evolution and Diversification of Spiny Lizards (Sceloporus). (United States)

    Lawing, A Michelle; Polly, P David; Hews, Diana K; Martins, Emília P


    Fossils and other paleontological information can improve phylogenetic comparative method estimates of phenotypic evolution and generate hypotheses related to species diversification. Here, we use fossil information to calibrate ancestral reconstructions of suitable climate for Sceloporus lizards in North America. Integrating data from the fossil record, general circulation models of paleoclimate during the Miocene, climate envelope modeling, and phylogenetic comparative methods provides a geographically and temporally explicit species distribution model of Sceloporus-suitable habitat through time. We provide evidence to support the historic biogeographic hypothesis of Sceloporus diversification in warm North American deserts and suggest a relatively recent Sceloporus invasion into Mexico around 6 Ma. We use a physiological model to map extinction risk. We suggest that the number of hours of restriction to a thermal refuge limited Sceloporus from inhabiting Mexico until the climate cooled enough to provide suitable habitat at approximately 6 Ma. If the future climate returns to the hotter climates of the past, Mexico, the place of highest modern Sceloporus richness, will no longer provide suitable habitats for Sceloporus to survive and reproduce.

  14. Seismology: tectonic strain in plate interiors? (United States)

    Calais, E; Mattioli, G; DeMets, C; Nocquet, J-M; Stein, S; Newman, A; Rydelek, P


    It is not fully understood how or why the inner areas of tectonic plates deform, leading to large, although infrequent, earthquakes. Smalley et al. offer a potential breakthrough by suggesting that surface deformation in the central United States accumulates at rates comparable to those across plate boundaries. However, we find no statistically significant deformation in three independent analyses of the data set used by Smalley et al., and conclude therefore that only the upper bounds of magnitude and repeat time for large earthquakes can be inferred at present.

  15. The Nature of Tectonic Spatial Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carter, Adrian; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning


    Since earliest times mankind has sought inspiration from nature for our built structures. However until the dawn of the modern era in architecture and design, the true structural character of a building was invariably full y or partially encased in an ornamented cladding, of often stylised motifs...... particularly of Kenneth Frampton, this paper will argue that the direct inspiration of nature and the increasing use of advanced parametric digital design tools that replicate virtually instantaneously evolutionary processes results in structures that are not only elegant tectonically and in terms of economy...

  16. Changes in time series of some climate elements in Estonia in early spring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russak, Viivi


    Systematic changes in some climate elements have become evident in Estonia during the latest decades; the greatest changes have been observed in March. Two possible causes may have led to the observed warming: changes in general atmospheric circulation and in radiation budget. Due to small solar evaluation and shortness of day the role of solar radiation in air temperature formation is not considerable in March. The absence of any significant trend in the time series of net long wave radiation in March seems to be caused by simultaneous and opposite influence of changes in downward and upward infrared radiation fluxes on temperature conditions near ground. In other seasons a significant increase in greenhouse effect has been established. Therefore, the changes in general atmospheric circulation should be considered the main reason of warming, while the role of solar radiation and greenhouse effect is not considerable in March

  17. Bioclim Deliverable D6a: regional climatic characteristics for the European sites at specific times: the dynamical down-scaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The overall aim of BIOCLIM is to assess the possible long-term impacts due to climate change on the safety of radioactive waste repositories in deep formations. This aim is addressed through the following specific objectives: - Development of practical and innovative strategies for representing sequential climatic changes to the geosphere-biosphere system for existing sites over central Europe, addressing the timescale of one million years, which is relevant to the geological disposal of radioactive waste. - Exploration and evaluation of the potential effects of climate change on the nature of the biosphere systems used to assess the environmental impact. - Dissemination of information on the new methodologies and the results obtained from the project among the international waste management community for use in performance assessments of potential or planned radioactive waste repositories. The BIOCLIM project is designed to advance the state-of-the-art of biosphere modelling for use in Performance Assessments. Therefore, two strategies are developed for representing sequential climatic changes to geosphere-biosphere systems. The hierarchical strategy successively uses a hierarchy of climate models. These models vary from simple 2-D models, which simulate interactions between a few aspects of the Earth system at a rough surface resolution, through General Circulation Model (GCM) and vegetation model, which simulate in great detail the dynamics and physics of the atmosphere, ocean and biosphere, to regional models, which focus on the European regions and sites of interest. Moreover, rule-based and statistical down-scaling procedures are also considered. Comparisons are provided in terms of climate and vegetation cover at the selected times and for the study regions. The integrated strategy consists of using integrated climate models, representing all the physical mechanisms important for long-term continuous climate variations, to simulate the climate evolution over

  18. Glacier volume response time and its links to climate and topography based on a conceptual model of glacier hypsometry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. B. Raper


    Full Text Available Glacier volume response time is a measure of the time taken for a glacier to adjust its geometry to a climate change. It has been previously proposed that the volume response time is given approximately by the ratio of glacier thickness to ablation at the glacier terminus. We propose a new conceptual model of glacier hypsometry (area-altitude relation and derive the volume response time where climatic and topographic parameters are separated. The former is expressed by mass balance gradients which we derive from glacier-climate modelling and the latter are quantified with data from the World Glacier Inventory. Aside from the well-known scaling relation between glacier volume and area, we establish a new scaling relation between glacier altitude range and area, and evaluate it for seven regions. The presence of this scaling parameter in our response time formula accounts for the mass balance elevation feedback and leads to longer response times than given by the simple ratio of glacier thickness to ablation at the terminus. Volume response times range from decades to thousands of years for glaciers in maritime (wet-warm and continental (dry-cold climates respectively. The combined effect of volume-area and altitude-area scaling relations is such that volume response time can increase with glacier area (Axel Heiberg Island and Svalbard, hardly change (Northern Scandinavia, Southern Norway and the Alps or even get smaller (The Caucasus and New Zealand.

  19. Climate impact of beef: an analysis considering multiple time scales and production methods without use of global warming potentials (United States)

    Pierrehumbert, R. T.; Eshel, G.


    An analysis of the climate impact of various forms of beef production is carried out, with a particular eye to the comparison between systems relying primarily on grasses grown in pasture (‘grass-fed’ or ‘pastured’ beef) and systems involving substantial use of manufactured feed requiring significant external inputs in the form of synthetic fertilizer and mechanized agriculture (‘feedlot’ beef). The climate impact is evaluated without employing metrics such as {{CO}}2{{e}} or global warming potentials. The analysis evaluates the impact at all time scales out to 1000 years. It is concluded that certain forms of pastured beef production have substantially lower climate impact than feedlot systems. However, pastured systems that require significant synthetic fertilization, inputs from supplemental feed, or deforestation to create pasture, have substantially greater climate impact at all time scales than the feedlot and dairy-associated systems analyzed. Even the best pastured system analyzed has enough climate impact to justify efforts to limit future growth of beef production, which in any event would be necessary if climate and other ecological concerns were met by a transition to primarily pasture-based systems. Alternate mitigation options are discussed, but barring unforseen technological breakthroughs worldwide consumption at current North American per capita rates appears incompatible with a 2 °C warming target.

  20. Drought timing and local climate determine the sensitivity of eastern temperate forests to drought. (United States)

    D'Orangeville, Loïc; Maxwell, Justin; Kneeshaw, Daniel; Pederson, Neil; Duchesne, Louis; Logan, Travis; Houle, Daniel; Arseneault, Dominique; Beier, Colin M; Bishop, Daniel A; Druckenbrod, Daniel; Fraver, Shawn; Girard, François; Halman, Joshua; Hansen, Chris; Hart, Justin L; Hartmann, Henrik; Kaye, Margot; Leblanc, David; Manzoni, Stefano; Ouimet, Rock; Rayback, Shelly; Rollinson, Christine R; Phillips, Richard P


    Projected changes in temperature and drought regime are likely to reduce carbon (C) storage in forests, thereby amplifying rates of climate change. While such reductions are often presumed to be greatest in semi-arid forests that experience widespread tree mortality, the consequences of drought may also be important in temperate mesic forests of Eastern North America (ENA) if tree growth is significantly curtailed by drought. Investigations of the environmental conditions that determine drought sensitivity are critically needed to accurately predict ecosystem feedbacks to climate change. We matched site factors with the growth responses to drought of 10,753 trees across mesic forests of ENA, representing 24 species and 346 stands, to determine the broad-scale drivers of drought sensitivity for the dominant trees in ENA. Here we show that two factors-the timing of drought, and the atmospheric demand for water (i.e., local potential evapotranspiration; PET)-are stronger drivers of drought sensitivity than soil and stand characteristics. Drought-induced reductions in tree growth were greatest when the droughts occurred during early-season peaks in radial growth, especially for trees growing in the warmest, driest regions (i.e., highest PET). Further, mean species trait values (rooting depth and ψ 50 ) were poor predictors of drought sensitivity, as intraspecific variation in sensitivity was equal to or greater than interspecific variation in 17 of 24 species. From a general circulation model ensemble, we find that future increases in early-season PET may exacerbate these effects, and potentially offset gains in C uptake and storage in ENA owing to other global change factors. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2 (United States)

    Friend, Andrew D.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rademacher, Tim T.; Keribin, Rozenn; Betts, Richard; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B.; Dankers, Rutger; Falloon, Pete D.; Ito, Akihiko; Kahana, Ron; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark R.; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Peylin, Philippe; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Vuichard, Nicolas; Warszawski, Lila; Wiltshire, Andy; Woodward, F. Ian


    Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510–758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52–477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended. PMID:24344265

  2. Low-Degree Time-Variable Gravity and Geophysical/Climatic Connections (United States)

    Chao, Benjamin F.


    Any large mass transport in the Earth system produces changes in the gravity field. Low harmonic degree components of such variations have been observed by the satellite-laser-ranging (SLR) technique, particularly in J2, the Earth's dynamic oblateness. J2 has long been observed to undergo a slight decrease due primarily to the post-glacial rebound of the mantle -- until around 1998, when it switched quite suddenly to an increase trend which continued to 2001 before turning back, signifymg a large, anomalous mass redistribution whose J2 effect overshadows that of the post-glacial rebound over interannual timescales. Intriguing evidences have been found in the extratropical Pacific basins, especially related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and in land hydrology. We will examine the latest results based on ocean altimetry, sea-surface temperature, and ocean and hydrology model outputs. Besides 52, the SLR-derived time series of the Earth's low-degree gravity components also show shorter wavelength zonal and other longitudinal signals. While the formal uncertainty of these terms is significantly higher, some of these series have significant signal that show correlation to various climatic signals. For example, the SLR-observed S2,l tesseral (and 53 zonal) coefficients compare favorably with those computed from the NCEP atmospheric pressure field. There is a significant correlation of the sectoral S2,2 with the Southern Oscillation Index signifying the influence of El NinoLa Nina, but preceding SO1 by about 1 year. Cases such as these demonstrate the utility of assessing the mass component of climate variations.

  3. Hydrologic Response to Climate Change: Missing Precipitation Data Matters for Computed Timing Trends (United States)

    Daniels, B.


    This work demonstrates the derivation of climate timing statistics and applying them to determine resulting hydroclimate impacts. Long-term daily precipitation observations from 50 California stations were used to compute climate trends of precipitation event Intensity, event Duration and Pause between events. Each precipitation event trend was then applied as input to a PRMS hydrology model which showed hydrology changes to recharge, baseflow, streamflow, etc. An important concern was precipitation uncertainty induced by missing observation values and causing errors in quantification of precipitation trends. Many standard statistical techniques such as ARIMA and simple endogenous or even exogenous imputation were applied but failed to help resolve these uncertainties. What helped resolve these uncertainties was use of multiple imputation techniques. This involved fitting of Weibull probability distributions to multiple imputed values for the three precipitation trends.Permutation resampling techniques using Monte Carlo processing were then applied to the multiple imputation values to derive significance p-values for each trend. Significance at the 95% level for Intensity was found for 11 of the 50 stations, Duration from 16 of the 50, and Pause from 19, of which 12 were 99% significant. The significance weighted trends for California are Intensity -4.61% per decade, Duration +3.49% per decade, and Pause +3.58% per decade. Two California basins with PRMS hydrologic models were studied: Feather River in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and the central coast Soquel-Aptos. Each local trend was changed without changing the other trends or the total precipitation. Feather River Basin's critical supply to Lake Oroville and the State Water Project benefited from a total streamflow increase of 1.5%. The Soquel-Aptos Basin water supply was impacted by a total groundwater recharge decrease of -7.5% and streamflow decrease of -3.2%.

  4. Modeling pN2through Geological Time: Implications for Planetary Climates and Atmospheric Biosignatures. (United States)

    Stüeken, E E; Kipp, M A; Koehler, M C; Schwieterman, E W; Johnson, B; Buick, R


    Nitrogen is a major nutrient for all life on Earth and could plausibly play a similar role in extraterrestrial biospheres. The major reservoir of nitrogen at Earth's surface is atmospheric N 2 , but recent studies have proposed that the size of this reservoir may have fluctuated significantly over the course of Earth's history with particularly low levels in the Neoarchean-presumably as a result of biological activity. We used a biogeochemical box model to test which conditions are necessary to cause large swings in atmospheric N 2 pressure. Parameters for our model are constrained by observations of modern Earth and reconstructions of biomass burial and oxidative weathering in deep time. A 1-D climate model was used to model potential effects on atmospheric climate. In a second set of tests, we perturbed our box model to investigate which parameters have the greatest impact on the evolution of atmospheric pN 2 and consider possible implications for nitrogen cycling on other planets. Our results suggest that (a) a high rate of biomass burial would have been needed in the Archean to draw down atmospheric pN 2 to less than half modern levels, (b) the resulting effect on temperature could probably have been compensated by increasing solar luminosity and a mild increase in pCO 2 , and (c) atmospheric oxygenation could have initiated a stepwise pN 2 rebound through oxidative weathering. In general, life appears to be necessary for significant atmospheric pN 2 swings on Earth-like planets. Our results further support the idea that an exoplanetary atmosphere rich in both N 2 and O 2 is a signature of an oxygen-producing biosphere. Key Words: Biosignatures-Early Earth-Planetary atmospheres. Astrobiology 16, 949-963.

  5. Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2. (United States)

    Friend, Andrew D; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rademacher, Tim T; Keribin, Rozenn; Betts, Richard; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B; Dankers, Rutger; Falloon, Pete D; Ito, Akihiko; Kahana, Ron; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark R; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Peylin, Philippe; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Vuichard, Nicolas; Warszawski, Lila; Wiltshire, Andy; Woodward, F Ian


    Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510-758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52-477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended.

  6. High Resolution Global Climate Modeling with GEOS-5: Intense Precipitation, Convection and Tropical Cyclones on Seasonal Time-Scales. (United States)

    Putnam, WilliamM.


    In 2008 the World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction concluded that "climate modeling will need-and is ready-to move to fundamentally new high-resolution approaches to capitalize on the seamlessness of the weather-climate continuum." Following from this, experimentation with very high-resolution global climate modeling has gained enhanced priority within many modeling groups and agencies. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5) has been enhanced to provide a capability for the execution at the finest horizontal resolutions POS,SIOle with a global climate model today. Using this high-resolution, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5, we have developed a unique capability to explore the intersection of weather and climate within a seamless prediction system. Week-long weather experiments, to mUltiyear climate simulations at global resolutions ranging from 3.5- to 14-km have demonstrated the predictability of extreme events including severe storms along frontal systems, extra-tropical storms, and tropical cyclones. The primary benefits of high resolution global models will likely be in the tropics, with better predictions of the genesis stages of tropical cyclones and of the internal structure of their mature stages. Using satellite data we assess the accuracy of GEOS-5 in representing extreme weather phenomena, and their interaction within the global climate on seasonal time-scales. The impacts of convective parameterization and the frequency of coupling between the moist physics and dynamics are explored in terms of precipitation intensity and the representation of deep convection. We will also describe the seasonal variability of global tropical cyclone activity within a global climate model capable of representing the most intense category 5 hurricanes.

  7. Caribbean plate tectonics from seismic tomography (United States)

    Ten Brink, U. S.; Villasenor, A.


    New seismic tomography in the Caribbean shows close links between the geometry and dynamics of subducting slabs and the geology of the overriding plate. Unlike most oceanic plates, the Caribbean plate lacks identifiable seafloor magnetic anomalies and fracture zones. The plate's history has therefore been inferred primarily from land geology along the plate boundary, which is complicated by large-scale shear deformation, and from finite rotations of surrounding plates.We used more than 14 million arrival times from 300,000 earthquakes to identify P-wave velocity anomalies. We relate the anomalies to the geometry and dynamics of subducting slabs and to patterns of earthquake activity, volcanism, topographic relief, and tectonic deformation. For example, we detect two separate slabs belonging to the North and South American plates, respectively, which appear to be responsible for morphologic and tectonic differences between the arcs of the Northern (from Guadeloupe northward) and Southern (from Dominica southward) Lesser Antilles. Variations in earthquake activity between Haiti and the Dominican Republic can be explained by a change in slab geometry from an underplated slab beneath Haiti to a subducting slab under the Dominican Republic. A shallow tear in the slab may explain the anomalously deep Puerto Rico Trench and the frequent earthquake swarms there. The westward shift in volcanic activity in the Northern Lesser Antilles from the Miocene Limestone Caribbees to the present arc can be attributed to the limit on convective flow imposed by the 3-D geometry of the slab at depth. A thinned South America slab under the southern Lesser Antilles may result from traction imposed on the slab by a wide forearc wedge. Variations in tectonic deformation of northern South America could be related to the location of the Caribbean Large Igneous Province north of the Maracaibo Block.

  8. The American Public Health Association's 2017 Year of Climate Change and Health: Time for Action. (United States)

    DeJarnett, Natasha; Robb, Katherine; Castellanos, Ivana; Dettman, Louise; Patel, Surili S


    Climate change is today's greatest public health threat. 1 As the nation's leading voice in public health, the American Public Health Association (APHA) has demonstrated an enduring commitment to climate change as a health issue. As far back as the mid-1920s, AJPH reported on the health impacts of climate change. 2-4 Shaping the development of future organizational efforts, APHA members created the organization's first policy statement on climate change in 1995 (updated in 2007 and 2015). APHA continued to bring attention to climate change and public health, making it the theme of National Public Health Week 2008. Since then, evidence of climate change's causes and effects has mounted, but politicization of the issue and low prioritization by the public has made progress toward mitigation and adaptation slow. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print October 26, 2017: e1-e2. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2017.304168).

  9. Time-dependent climate benefits of using forest residues to substitute fossil fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sathre, Roger; Gustavsson, Leif


    In this study we analyze and compare the climate impacts from the recovery, transport and combustion of forest residues (harvest slash and stumps), versus the climate impacts that would have occurred if the residues were left in the forest and fossil fuels used instead. We use cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) as an indicator of climate impacts, and we explicitly consider the temporal dynamics of atmospheric carbon dioxide and biomass decomposition. Over a 240-year period, we find that CRF is significantly reduced when forest residues are used instead of fossil fuels. The type of fossil fuel replaced is important, with coal replacement giving the greatest CRF reduction. Replacing oil and fossil gas also gives long-term CRF reduction, although CRF is positive during the first 10-25 years when these fuels are replaced. Biomass productivity is also important, with more productive forests giving greater CRF reduction per hectare. The decay rate for biomass left in the forest is found to be less significant. Fossil energy inputs for biomass recovery and transport have very little impact on CRF. -- Highlights: → Cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) can measure climate impacts of dynamic systems. → Climate impact is reduced when forest slash and stumps are used to replace fossil fuels. → Forest biofuels may cause short-term climate impact, followed by long-term climate benefit. → Forest residues should replace coal to avoid short-term climate impact. → Fossil energy used for biofuel recovery and transport has very little climate impact.

  10. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea (United States)

    Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis


    Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions. PMID:26987606

  11. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea. (United States)

    Park, Jae-Won; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Kim, Ho; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis; Mueller, Ivo


    This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

  12. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Won Park


    Full Text Available Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021, and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

  13. Global tectonics and space geodesy. (United States)

    Gordon, R G; Stein, S


    Much of the success of plate tectonics can be attributed to the near rigidity of tectonic plates and the availability of data that describe the rates and directions of motion across narrow plate boundaries \\m=~\\1 to 60 kilometers wide. Nonetheless, many plate boundaries in both continental and oceanic lithosphere are not narrow but are hundreds to thousands of kilometers wide. Wide plate boundary zones cover \\m=~\\15 percent of Earth's surface area. Space geodesy, which includes very long baseline radio interferometry, satellite laser ranging, and the global positioning system, is providing the accurate long-distance measurements needed to estimate the present motion across and within wide plate boundary zones. Space geodetic data show that plate velocities averaged over years are remarkably similar to velocities averaged over millions of years.

  14. Potential for passive cooling of buildings by night-time ventilation in present and future climates in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Artmann, Nikolai; Manz, Heinrich; Heiselberg, Per


    -time ventilative cooling over the whole of Northern Europe and a still significant potential in Central, Eastern and even some regions of Southern Europe. However, given the inherent stochastic properties of weather patterns, series of warmer nights can occur at some locations, where passive cooling by night......-time ventilation alone might not suffice to guarantee thermal comfort. It should also be remembered that climatic cooling potential is likely to have fallen appreciably by the end of the 21st century due to climate warming....

  15. Global evaluation of erosion rates in relation to tectonics (United States)

    Hecht, Hagar; Oguchi, Takashi


    Understanding the mechanisms and controlling factors of erosion rates is essential in order to sufficiently comprehend bigger processes such as landscape evolution. For decades, scientists have been researching erosion rates where one of the main objectives was to find the controlling factors. A variety of parameters have been suggested ranging from climate-related, basin morphometry and the tectonic setting of an area. This study focuses on the latter. We use previously published erosion rate data obtained mainly using 10Be and sediment yield and sediment yield data published by the United States Geological Survey. We correlate these data to tectonic-related factors, i.e., distance to tectonic plate boundary, peak ground acceleration ( PGA), and fault distribution. We also examine the relationship between erosion rate and mean basin slope and find significant correlations of erosion rates with distance to tectonic plate boundary, PGA, and slope. The data are binned into high, medium, and low values of each of these parameters and grouped in all combinations. We find that groups with a combination of high PGA (> 0.2.86 g) and long distance (> 1118.69 km) or low PGA (erosion rates include long distance and/or low PGA, and groups with high erosion rates include neither of these. These observations indicate that tectonics plays a major role in determining erosion rates, which is partly ascribable to steeper slopes produced by active crustal movements. However, our results show no apparent correlation of slope with erosion rates, pointing to problems with using mean basin-wide slope as a slope indicator because it does not represent the complex slope distribution within a basin.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Kaiying


    Full Text Available The Shanxi tectonic belt is a historically earthquakeabundant area. For the majority of strong earthquakes in this area, the distribution of earthquake foci was controlled by the N–S oriented local structures on the tectonic belt. Studies of the present stress state of the Shanxi tectonic belt can contribute to the understanding of the relationship between strong earthquakes’ occurrence and their structural distribution and also facilitate assessments of regional seismic danger and determination of the regions wherein strong earthquakes may occur in future. Using the Cataclastic Analysis Method (CAM, we performed stress inversion based on the focal mechanism data of earthquakes which took place in the Shanxi tectonic belt from 1967 to 2010. Our results show that orientations of the maximum principal compressive stress axis of the Shanxi tectonic belt might have been variable before and after the 2001 Kunlun MS=8.1 strong earthquake, with two different superior trends of the NW–SE and NE–SW orientation in different periods. When the maximum principal compressive stress axis is oriented in the NE–SW direction, the pattern of the space distribution of the seismic events in the Shanxi tectonic belt shows a trend of their concentration in the N–S oriented tectonic segments. At the same time, the stress state is registered as horizontal shearing and horizontal extension in the N–S and NE–SW oriented local segments in turn. When the maximum principal compressive stress axis is NW–SE oriented, the stress state of the N–S and NE–SW oriented tectonic segments is primarily registered as horizontal shearing. Estimations of plunges of stress axes show that seismicity in the Shanxi belt  corresponds primarily to the activity of lowangle faults, and highangle stress sites are located in the NE–SW oriented extensional tectonic segments of the Shanxi belt. This indicates that the stress change of the Shanxi belt is

  17. [Modelling the effect of local climatic variability on dengue transmission in Medellin (Colombia) by means of time series analysis]. (United States)

    Rúa-Uribe, Guillermo L; Suárez-Acosta, Carolina; Chauca, José; Ventosilla, Palmira; Almanza, Rita


    Dengue fever is a major impact on public health vector-borne disease, and its transmission is influenced by entomological, sociocultural and economic factors. Additionally, climate variability plays an important role in the transmission dynamics. A large scientific consensus has indicated that the strong association between climatic variables and disease could be used to develop models to explain the incidence of the disease. To develop a model that provides a better understanding of dengue transmission dynamics in Medellin and predicts increases in the incidence of the disease. The incidence of dengue fever was used as dependent variable, and weekly climatic factors (maximum, mean and minimum temperature, relative humidity and precipitation) as independent variables. Expert Modeler was used to develop a model to better explain the behavior of the disease. Climatic variables with significant association to the dependent variable were selected through ARIMA models. The model explains 34% of observed variability. Precipitation was the climatic variable showing statistically significant association with the incidence of dengue fever, but with a 20 weeks delay. In Medellin, the transmission of dengue fever was influenced by climate variability, especially precipitation. The strong association dengue fever/precipitation allowed the construction of a model to help understand dengue transmission dynamics. This information will be useful to develop appropriate and timely strategies for dengue control.

  18. Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas-fir (United States)

    Ford, Kevin R.; Harrington, Constance A.; Bansal, Sheel; Gould, Petter J.; St. Clair, Bradley


    Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures (“forcing”) typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures (“chilling”) while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height- and diameter-growth initiation in coast Douglas-fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field-based and controlled-environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, towards lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter-growth initiation than height-growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas-fir to climate change at the warm

  19. A review on Holocene climate changes in Indian subcontinent

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naidu, P.D.

    Since the collision of Indian plate with Eurasia, the Indian subcontinent has experienced minor tectonic and major climatic changes. Summer monsoon plays an important role in the local and regional climate of Asia. General Circulation Model (GCM...

  20. Vertical tectonics at an active continental margin (United States)

    Houlié, N.; Stern, T. A.


    Direct observations of vertical movements of the earth's surface are now possible with space-based GPS networks, and have applications to resources, hazards and tectonics. Here we present data on vertical movements of the Earth's surface in New Zealand, computed from the processing of GPS data collected between 2000 and 2015 by 189 permanent GPS stations. We map the geographical variation in vertical rates and show how these variations are explicable within a tectonic framework of subduction, volcanic activity and slow slip earthquakes. Subsidence of >3 mm/yr is observed along southeastern North Island and is interpreted to be due to the locked segment of the Hikurangi subduction zone. Uplift of 1-3 mm/yr further north along the margin of the eastern North Island is interpreted as being due to the plate interface being unlocked and underplating of sediment on the subduction thrust. The Volcanic Plateau of the central North Island is being uplifted at about 1 mm/yr, which can be explained by basaltic melts being injected in the active mantle-wedge at a rate of ∼6 mm/yr. Within the Central Volcanic Region there is a 250 km2 area that subsided between 2005 and 2012 at a rate of up to 14 mm/yr. Time series from the stations located within and near the zone of subsidence show a strong link between subsidence, adjacent uplift and local earthquake swarms.

  1. Quasi-real-time monitoring of SW radiation budget using geostationary satellite for Climate study and Renewable energy. (Invited) (United States)

    Takenaka, H.; Nakajima, T. Y.; Kuze, H.; Takamura, T.; Pinker, R. T.; Nakajima, T.


    Solar radiation is the only source of energy that drives the weather and climate of the Earth's surface. Earth is warmed by incoming solar radiation, and emitted energy to space by terrestrial radiation due to its temperature. It has been kept to the organisms viable environment by the effect of heating and cooling. Clouds can cool the Earth by reflecting solar radiation and also can keep the Earth warm by absorbing and emitting terrestrial radiation. They are important in the energy balance at the Earth surface and the Top of the Atmosphere (TOA) and are connected complicatedly into the Earth system as well as other climate feedback processes. Thus it is important to estimate Earth's radiation budget for better understanding of climate and environmental change. We have shared several topics related to climate change. Energy issues close to the climate change, it is an environmental problems. Photovoltaics is one of the power generation method to converts from solar radiation to electric power directly. It does not emit greenhouse gases during power generation. Similarly, drainage, exhaust, vibration does not emit. PV system can be distributed as a small power supply in urban areas and it can installed to near the power demand points. Also solar thermal is heat generator with high efficiency. Therefor it is an effective energy source that the solar power is expected as one of the mitigation of climate change (IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation). It is necessary to real-time-monitoring of the surface solar radiation for safety operation of electric power system. We introduce a fusion analysis of renewable energy and Quasi-real-time analysis of SW radiation budget. Sample of estimated PV power mapping using geostationary satellite.

  2. Climate change-driven cliff and beach evolution at decadal to centennial time scales (United States)

    Erikson, Li; O'Neill, Andrea; Barnard, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Limber, Patrick


    Here we develop a computationally efficient method that evolves cross-shore profiles of sand beaches with or without cliffs along natural and urban coastal environments and across expansive geographic areas at decadal to centennial time-scales driven by 21st century climate change projections. The model requires projected sea level rise rates, extrema of nearshore wave conditions, bluff recession and shoreline change rates, and cross-shore profiles representing present-day conditions. The model is applied to the ~470-km long coast of the Southern California Bight, USA, using recently available projected nearshore waves and bluff recession and shoreline change rates. The results indicate that eroded cliff material, from unarmored cliffs, contribute 11% to 26% to the total sediment budget. Historical beach nourishment rates will need to increase by more than 30% for a 0.25 m sea level rise (~2044) and by at least 75% by the year 2100 for a 1 m sea level rise, if evolution of the shoreline is to keep pace with rising sea levels.

  3. Late Noachian Climate Of Mars: Constraints From Valley Network System Formation Times And The Intermittencies (Episodic/Periodic And Punctuated). (United States)

    Head, James


    Formation of Late Noachian-Early Hesperian (LN-EH) valley network systems (VNS) signaled the presence of warm/wet conditions generating several hypotheses for climates permissive of these conditions. To constrain options for the ambient Noachian climate, we examine estimates for time required to carve channels/deltas and total duration implied by plausible intermittencies. Formation Times for VN, OBL, Deltas, Fans: A synthesis of required timescales show that even with the longest estimated continuous duration of VN formation/intermittencies, total time to carve the VN does not exceed 106 years, use Earth-like fluvial activity and intermittency). Noachian-Early Hesperian Climate Models: 1) Warm and wet/semiarid/arid climate: Sustained background MAT >273 K, hydrological system vertically integrated, and rainfall occurs to recharge the aquifer. Two subtypes: a) "Rainfall/Fluvial Erosion-Dominated Warm and Wet Model": "Rainfall and surface runoff" persist throughout Noachian to explain crater degradation, and a LN-EH short rapidly ending terminal epoch. b) "Recharge Evaporation/Evaporite Dominated Warm and Wet Model": Sustained period of equatorial/mid-latitude precipitation and a vertically integrated hydrological system driven by evaporative upwelling and fluctuating shallow water table playa environments account for sulfate evaporate environments at Meridiani Planum. Sustained temperatures >273 K are required for extended periods (107-108 years). 2) Cold and icy climate: Sustained background temperatures extremely low (MAT ˜225 K), cryosphere is globally continuous, hydrological system is horizontally stratified, separating groundwater system from surface; no combination of spin-axis/orbital perturbations can raise MAT to 273 K. Adiabatic cooling effects transfer water to high altitudes, leading to "Late Noachian Icy Highlands Model". VNS cannot form in this nominal climate environment without special circumstances (e.g., impacts or volcanic eruptions elevate of

  4. Climate response to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and solar irradiance on the time scale of days to weeks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Long; Bala, Govindasamy; Caldeira, Ken


    Recent studies show that fast climate response on time scales of less than a month can have important implications for long-term climate change. In this study, we investigate climate response on the time scale of days to weeks to a step-function quadrupling of atmospheric CO 2 and contrast this with the response to a 4% increase in solar irradiance. Our simulations show that significant climate effects occur within days of a stepwise increase in both atmospheric CO 2 content and solar irradiance. Over ocean, increased atmospheric CO 2 warms the lower troposphere more than the surface, increasing atmospheric stability, moistening the boundary layer, and suppressing evaporation and precipitation. In contrast, over ocean, increased solar irradiance warms the lower troposphere to a much lesser extent, causing a much smaller change in evaporation and precipitation. Over land, both increased CO 2 and increased solar irradiance cause rapid surface warming that tends to increase both evaporation and precipitation. However, the physiological effect of increased atmospheric CO 2 on plant stomata reduces plant transpiration, drying the boundary layer and decreasing precipitation. This effect does not occur with increased solar irradiance. Therefore, differences in climatic effects from CO 2 versus solar forcing are manifested within days after the forcing is imposed. (letter)

  5. Assessing stomatal conductance changes on short and long time scales and its possible impact on climate (United States)

    Lammertsma, Emmy; Wagner-Cremer, Friederike; Kuerschner, Wolfram M.


    Two fundamental responses of vegetation to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]) are increased photosynthesis and decreased stomatal conductance. The latter is determined by both stomatal aperture adjustment on the short term, and by stomatal frequency and size adjustment on the long term. The resulting increased WUE of vegetation leads to changes in the hydrological cycle. Integrating this physiological forcing in Global Circulation Models (GCMs) results in increased surface warming and is thought to enhance terrestrial runoff significantly. Stomatal conductance is therefore considered a critical parameter in modelling past and future climate and environmental changes. However, quantification of the rate of change under [CO2] variability has proven to be not so straightforward. Values obtained from growth experiments under elevated [CO2] generally reflect the short term adaptation only, and seem to have too short a runtime for structural adaptation of the vegetation. Here we present the stomatal conductance changes deduced from Florida subfossil leaves over a 100ppmv [CO2] increment since the industrial revolution. Temporally high-resolution measurements of stomatal frequency and size on the epidermis for 8 common Florida tree species (Taxodium distichum, Pinus elliottii, P. taeda, Quercus nigra, Q. laurifolia, Acer rubrum, Myrica cerifera and Ilex cassine) are used to calculate the maximal stomatal conductance to water vapour Gwmax. Resulting conductance decreases over a 100ppmv [CO2] interval range between -19% to -59% for the different species, with an average of -40%. The current warm-temperate to subtropical Florida climate and vegetation composition serve as a modern analogue for Late Tertiary Europe, when [CO2] is thought to be comparable to today's levels. If it is assumed that past vegetation has responded similarly to [CO2] fluctuations, the stomatal conductance change reconstructed for Florida and related WUE changes can be used to better

  6. The relative roles of local climate adaptation and phylogeny in determining leaf-out timing of temperate tree species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Desnoues, Elsa; Ferreira de Carvalho, Julie; Zohner, Constantin M.; Crowther, Thomas W.


    Leaf out times of temperate forest trees are a prominent determinant of global carbon dynamics throughout the year. Abiotic cues of leaf emergence are well studied but investigation of the relative roles of shared evolutionary history (phylogeny) and local adaptation to climate in determining the

  7. Climate change impacts on crop yields, land use and environment in response to crop sowing dates and thermal time requirements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zimmermann, Andrea; Webber, Heidi; Zhao, Gang; Ewert, Frank; Kros, Hans; Wolf, Joost; Britz, Wolfgang; Vries, de Wim


    Impacts of climate change on European agricultural production, land use and the environment depend on its impact on crop yields. However, many impact studies assume that crop management remains unchanged in future scenarios, while farmers may adapt their sowing dates and cultivar thermal time

  8. Population dynamics in the high Arctic: Climate variations in time and space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendrichsen, Ditte Katrine

    Climatic factors profoundly influence the population dynamics, species interactions and demography of Arctic species. Analyses of the spatio-temporal dynamics within and across species are therefore necessary to understand and predict the responses of Arctic ecosystems to climatic variability......, and to unravel the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors on ecosystem functioning. This thesis considers how selected vertebrate species in a high Arctic ecosystem respond to climatic variability, using 13 years of data from the monitoring programme at Zackenberg, Northeast Greenland. The main focus...

  9. Framework for Tectonic Thinking, a Conceptual Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garritzmann, Udo


    This research paper is a contribution to the field of architectural design theory in the area of tectonics. From the designer’s point of view, it will develop an overarching conceptual framework for tectonic thinking (FTT), which will serve as a tool for the comparative analysis and interpretation...... of a wide range of tectonic motifs and design positions. The understanding of tectonics will be broadened and differentiated. The conceptual framework will be developed in writing and in hand-drawn mappings. This comparative method assumes not one single, supposedly right, meaning of tectonics, but several...... a value judgement beforehand about any of these positions. Also a-tectonic design positions will be regarded as valid positions within this framework....

  10. A Systematic Comparison of Vertical GPS Time Series Calculated by Five Processing Centers for Detecting Climatic-Induced Crustal Movements (United States)

    Setti Junior, P. D. T.; Wdowinski, S.


    Vertical crustal movements, as observed by continuous GPS measurements, are sensitive to load changes induced by atmospheric and hydrological processes, as lake level fluctuations, ice melt, groundwater depletion, or drought. These movements are often dominated by a seasonal signal but also by year-to-year changes, which reflect a long-term climatic signal. Recently, we developed a new technique that extracts the climatic signal by removing the seasonal signal from vertical GPS time series (Wdowinski et al., 2016). However, the method's results, which are the climatic signals, are very sensitive to the quality of the time series and the choice of reference frame (RF). In this study, we conduct a systematic comparison between eight vertical GPS time series calculated by five processing centers and evaluate their suitability to extract the climatic signal. We use the solutions produced by Central Washington University (CWU), New Mexico Institute of Technology (NMT), Nevada Geodetic Laboratory (NGL), Scripps Orbit and Permanent Array Center (SOPAC) and Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), as well as combined solution calculated by the Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) and GPS Explorer. We use the solutions constrained in the IGS08 RF and in the case of NGL, we also use the NA12 solutions. Three of the processing centers, CWU, NGL and JPL use the GIPSY software, whereas the other two, NMT and SOPAC, use GAMIT. Both combined solutions integrate between GIPSY and GAMIT solutions. We conducted our comparative analysis in two study areas, one in western US taking advantage of the two decades long time series of the Basin and Range network, and the other in eastern U.S. and Canada (Washington DC area, Newfoundland, and Ottawa area). Preliminary results suggest that the three GIPSY solutions (CWU, NGL and JPL) are more consistent between one another compared with the GAMIT solutions. The GIPSY solutions also yield climatic signal that is more consistent with regional climatic

  11. The Aegean: A natural laboratory for tectonics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burchfiel, B C


    The Aegean, a young and active tectonic region, is a natural laboratory for analyzing many tectonic processes that occur in backarc extensional regimes, and the correlation of these processes from landscape development to deeper mantle dynamics. Cenozoic development of the Aegean region was dominated by subduction beneath Europe and coeval upper plate extension modified by westward extrusion of Anatolia. Intraorogenic and backarc extension began during early Cenozoic time within the Balkans and NW Turkey during closure of the Vardar ocean. Extension was manifested by core complex formation and a change in volcanism caused by the evolution of the lithosphere and mantle wedge. Following a short period of local (?) shortening in ∼ early Miocene time, regional extension began and continued to the present. Within the Hellenides, E-W extension and the subduction zone migrated westward as thick and thin crustal units were progressively accreted and were complexly rotated up to 40 0 CW. Within the eastern Balkans and NW Turkey, N-S extension migrated westward and southward, and in the Aegean the volcanic arc and subduction zone migrated southward. Turkish crustal elements rotated complexly CCW, which in concert with the CW rotation in the Hellenides increased the curvature of the subduction zone and lengthened the orogen causing greater subsidence and extension in the Aegean Sea. Westward extrusion of Anatolia from the Arabian collision zone was enhanced by slab roll back in west moving Aegean crust more rapidly westward. Abundant evidence supports slab rollback at different velocities along the subduction zone. In Pliocene time, the North Anatolian fault crossed the Hellenides in a complex transtensional zone and a diffuse zone of left-lateral shear crossed western Turkey at present isolating a relatively undeforming Aegean plate. Major tectonic questions include: What is the geometry and fate of subducted slabs?, How much crust is accreted during subduction of thick

  12. Navigating Towards Digital Tectonic Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Anne Marie Due; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning


    The computer holds a great potential to break down the barriers between architecture and the technical aspects relating to architecture, thus supporting innovative architecture with an inner correspondence between form and technique. While the differing values in architecture and technique can seem...... a tectonic tool should encompass. Secondly the ability and validity of the model are shown by applying it to a case study of Jørn Utzon’s work on Minor Hall in Sydney Opera House - for the sake of exemplification the technical field focused on in this paper is room acoustics. Thirdly the relationship between...

  13. GISS GCMAM Modeled Climate Responses to Total and Spectral Solar Forcing on Decadal and Centennial Time Scales (United States)

    Wen, G.; Cahalan, R. F.; Rind, D. H.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J. W.; Krivova, N.


    We examine the influence of the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor) observed spectral solar irradiance (SSI) variations on Earth's climate. We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM based, the other based on the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) model, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model) to examine the climate responses on decadal and centennial time scales. We show that the atmosphere has different temperature, ozone, and dynamic responses to the two solar spectral forcing scenarios, even when the variations in TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) are the same. We find that solar variations under either scenario contribute a small fraction of the observed temperature increase since the industrial revolution. The trend of global averaged surface air temperature response to the SIM-based solar forcing is 0.02 °C/century, about half of the temperature trend to the SATIRE-based SSI. However the temporal variation of the surface air temperature for the SIM-based solar forcing scenario is much larger compared to its SATIRE counterpart. Further research is required to examine TSI and SSI variations in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, to assess their implications for the solar influence on climate.

  14. The Space-Time Variation of Global Crop Yields, Detecting Simultaneous Outliers and Identifying the Teleconnections with Climatic Patterns (United States)

    Najafi, E.; Devineni, N.; Pal, I.; Khanbilvardi, R.


    An understanding of the climate factors that influence the space-time variability of crop yields is important for food security purposes and can help us predict global food availability. In this study, we address how the crop yield trends of countries globally were related to each other during the last several decades and the main climatic variables that triggered high/low crop yields simultaneously across the world. Robust Principal Component Analysis (rPCA) is used to identify the primary modes of variation in wheat, maize, sorghum, rice, soybeans, and barley yields. Relations between these modes of variability and important climatic variables, especially anomalous sea surface temperature (SSTa), are examined from 1964 to 2010. rPCA is also used to identify simultaneous outliers in each year, i.e. systematic high/low crop yields across the globe. The results demonstrated spatiotemporal patterns of these crop yields and the climate-related events that caused them as well as the connection of outliers with weather extremes. We find that among climatic variables, SST has had the most impact on creating simultaneous crop yields variability and yield outliers in many countries. An understanding of this phenomenon can benefit global crop trade networks.

  15. Satellites reveals the biophysical effects of forest cover change on climate at diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual time scales (United States)

    Duveiller, Gregory; Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro


    Changing the planet's forest cover can have a profound impact of the climate system by altering its role as a carbon sink. However, deforestation and afforestation also changes the biophysical properties of the surface such as albedo, roughness and root depth, thus altering the energy balance and the resulting surface and air temperature. The result of these competing biophysical processes varies spatially and seasonally, and can lead to either warming or cooling depending on which process dominates. The main tools to characterize such plant-climate interactions for both the past and future are land surface models embedded in larger Earth System models, yet their capacity to model biophysical effects accurately across the globe remains unclear due to the complexity of the phenomena. Alternatively, with appropriate methodologies, the climate impacts of the biophysical effects of forest cover change can be derived from space by satellite measurements of surface temperature and energy fluxes. Here we present the confrontation of two dedicated assessments that have been specifically generated for this scope with contrasting methodologies. The first is based on identifying an actual change in the local climate following an observed forest cover transition. Although it directly measures the desired effect, this method can only be applied to the places where vegetation change has effectively occurred. The second method relies on a 'space-for-time' approximation that identifies the potential impact of a plant cover transition from differences in climate amongst neighboring areas with contrasting vegetation. We show how both approaches reinforce and complement each other to provide a consolidated result across diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual time scales. We anticipate that these evidences derived from satellite records may support the benchmarking and development of Earth system models and support the inclusion of vegetation-driven biophysical processes in climate

  16. Predicting the likely response of data-poor ecosystems to climate change using space-for-time substitution across domains. (United States)

    Lester, Rebecca E; Close, Paul G; Barton, Jan L; Pope, Adam J; Brown, Stuart C


    Predicting ecological response to climate change is often limited by a lack of relevant local data from which directly applicable mechanistic models can be developed. This limits predictions to qualitative assessments or simplistic rules of thumb in data-poor regions, making management of the relevant systems difficult. We demonstrate a method for developing quantitative predictions of ecological response in data-poor ecosystems based on a space-for-time substitution, using distant, well-studied systems across an inherent climatic gradient to predict ecological response. Changes in biophysical data across the spatial gradient are used to generate quantitative hypotheses of temporal ecological responses that are then tested in a target region. Transferability of predictions among distant locations, the novel outcome of this method, is demonstrated via simple quantitative relationships that identify direct and indirect impacts of climate change on physical, chemical and ecological variables using commonly available data sources. Based on a limited subset of data, these relationships were demonstrably plausible in similar yet distant (>2000 km) ecosystems. Quantitative forecasts of ecological change based on climate-ecosystem relationships from distant regions provides a basis for research planning and informed management decisions, especially in the many ecosystems for which there are few data. This application of gradient studies across domains - to investigate ecological response to climate change - allows for the quantification of effects on potentially numerous, interacting and complex ecosystem components and how they may vary, especially over long time periods (e.g. decades). These quantitative and integrated long-term predictions will be of significant value to natural resource practitioners attempting to manage data-poor ecosystems to prevent or limit the loss of ecological value. The method is likely to be applicable to many ecosystem types, providing a

  17. Sedimentology, geochemistry and OSL dating of the alluvial succession in the northern Gujarat alluvial plain (western India) - A record to evaluate the sensitivity of a semiarid fluvial system to the climatic and tectonic forcing since the late Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Falguni; Shukla, Anil D.; Patel, R. C.; Rastogi, B. K.; Juyal, Navin


    The alluvial successions in the northern Gujarat alluvial plain (western India) have been investigated for reconstructing the climatic fluctuations during the last 40 ka. Alluvial architecture and geochemical proxies indicate prevalence of a strengthened Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) with fluctuations between the late Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (MIS 3; 37 ka) to the early MIS 2 (27 ka). A gradual onset of aridity (declining ISM) after 27 ka with peak aridity at 22 ka is observed. A gradual strengthening of ISM at around 18 and > 12 ka followed by a short reversal in ISM intensity between 12 and 11 ka, is attributed to the Younger-Dryas (YD) cooling event. The aeolian sand sheet dated to 6 and 3.5 ka represents the onset of regional aridity. Following this, a short-lived humid phase was observed after 2 ka, which includes the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). The study suggests that the variability in the ISM to the latitudinal migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone was caused by insolation-driven cooling and warming events in the North Atlantic. The incision of the valley fill alluvium occurred in two distinct phases. The older incision phase occurred after 11 ka and before 6 ka, whereas the younger incision phase that led to the development of present day topography is bracketed between 3.5 ka and before 1 ka. The older incision phase is ascribed to the early to mid-Holocene enhanced ISM (climatically driven), whereas the younger incision seems to be modulated by the activation of basement faults (tectonically driven).


    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lenardic, A.; Crowley, J. W.


    A model of coupled mantle convection and planetary tectonics is used to demonstrate that history dependence can outweigh the effects of a planet's energy content and material parameters in determining its tectonic state. The mantle convection-surface tectonics system allows multiple tectonic modes to exist for equivalent planetary parameter values. The tectonic mode of the system is then determined by its specific geologic and climatic history. This implies that models of tectonics and mantle convection will not be able to uniquely determine the tectonic mode of a terrestrial planet without the addition of historical data. Historical data exists, to variable degrees, for all four terrestrial planets within our solar system. For the Earth, the planet with the largest amount of observational data, debate does still remain regarding the geologic and climatic history of Earth's deep past but constraints are available. For planets in other solar systems, no such constraints exist at present. The existence of multiple tectonic modes, for equivalent parameter values, points to a reason why different groups have reached different conclusions regarding the tectonic state of extrasolar terrestrial planets larger than Earth ( s uper-Earths ) . The region of multiple stable solutions is predicted to widen in parameter space for more energetic mantle convection (as would be expected for larger planets). This means that different groups can find different solutions, all potentially viable and stable, using identical models and identical system parameter values. At a more practical level, the results argue that the question of whether extrasolar terrestrial planets will have plate tectonics is unanswerable and will remain so until the temporal evolution of extrasolar planets can be constrained.

  19. A combined rigid/deformable plate tectonic model for the evolution of the Indian Ocean (United States)

    Watson, J. G.; Glover, C. T.; Adriasola Munoz, A. C.; Harris, J. P.; Goodrich, M.


    Plate tectonic reconstructions are essential for placing geological information in its correct spatial context, understanding depositional environments, defining basin dimensions and evolution, and serve as a basis for palaeogeographic mapping and for palaeo-climate modelling. Traditional 'rigid' plate reconstructions often result in misfits (overlaps and underfits) in the geometries of juxtaposed plate margins when restored to their pre-rift positions. This has been attributed to internal deformation pre- and/or syn- continental break-up. Poorly defined continent-ocean boundaries add to these problems. To date, few studies have integrated continental extension within a global model. Recent plate tectonic reconstructions based on the relative motions of Africa, Madagascar, India and Antarctica during the break-up of eastern Gondwana have not taken into account the effects of deformation; particularly between India and Madagascar, and India and the Seychelles. A deformable plate model is in development that builds on the current rigid plate model to describe the complex multiphase break-up history between Africa, Madagascar, Seychelles and India, the associated magmatic activity and subsequent India/Eurasia collision. The break-up of eastern Gondwana occurred in the mid Jurassic by rifting between Africa and the India-Madagascar-Australian-Antarctica plates, followed by the Late Jurassic drift of India away from Australia and the Cretaceous break-up of Australia and Antarctica. The northwards drift of the Seychelles-India block in the Tertiary was accommodated by the opening of the Laxmi Basin. This was followed by the eruption of the extensive Deccan flood basalts and the separation of India and the Seychelles. Crustal domains on volcanic margins can be very difficult to define due to the accretion of magmatic material. On these margins, there is much speculation on the position of the continent-ocean boundary and the timing of rifting and sea-floor spreading. The

  20. Tectonic controls on the geomorphic evolution of alluvial fans in the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The Piedmont Zone has formed as a result of coalescing alluvial fans,alluvial aprons and talus deposits.The fans have differential morphologies and aggradation processes within a common climatic zone and similar litho-tectonic setting of the catchment area. Morphotectonic analysis reveals that the fan morphologies and ...

  1. Earthwatch and the HSBC Climate Partnership: Impacting the Bottom Line One Citizen Scientist at a Time (United States)

    Kusek, K. M.; Stover, D. B.; Phillips, R.; Jones, A.; Campbell, J.


    Earthwatch has engaged more than 90,000 citizen scientists in long-term research studies since its founding in 1971. One of its newer research and engagement programs is the HSBC Climate Partnership, a five-year global program on climate change to inspire action by individuals, businesses and governments (2007-2012). In this unique NGO-business partnership, Earthwatch has implemented five forest research-focused climate centers in the US, UK, Brazil, India and China. At each center, a team of scientists—supported by HSBC employees and local citizen scientists—is gathering data to determine how temperate and tropical forests are affected by changes in climate and human activity. Results will establish baseline data to empower forest managers, conservationists and communities with the information they need to better manage forests in a changing climate. A critical component of the program is the engagement of 2,200 HSBC employees who spend two weeks out of the office at one of the regional climate centers. They work alongside leading scientists to perform forest research by day, and participate each evening in an interactive education program on the ecological and socioeconomic impacts of climate change—including how climate change impacts HSBC’s bottom line. Their charge is to develop a project they will implement back in their office that furthers HSBC’s commitment to sustainability. In addition to the corporate engagement model, Earthwatch has successfully engaged scores of local community stakeholders in the HSBC Climate Partnership, including teachers who report back to their classrooms “live from the field,” reporters and other business/NGO leaders in modified versions of the two-week field program. New models of citizen science engagement are currently under development, and Earthwatch will share “lessons learned” and stories documenting the effectiveness of the program design from a research, engagement and business perspective. By the end

  2. The Nature of Tectonic Spatial Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carter, Adrian; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning


    Since earliest times mankind has sought inspiration from nature for our built structures. However until the dawn of the modern era in architecture and design, the true structural character of a building was invariably full y or partially encased in an ornamented cladding, of often stylised motifs...... of nature. The modern emphasis on honest structural expression has resulted in more sincere and innovative interpretations of nature in spatial structures. With reference to the works of amongst others of Gaudi, Candela, Otto, Nervi, Utzon, Calatrava and Foreign Office Architects (FOA) and the writings...... particularly of Kenneth Frampton, this paper will argue that the direct inspiration of nature and the increasing use of advanced parametric digital design tools that replicate virtually instantaneously evolutionary processes results in structures that are not only elegant tectonically and in terms of economy...

  3. Effectiveness of time of sowing and cultivar choice for managing climate change: wheat crop phenology and water use efficiency (United States)

    Luo, Qunying; O'Leary, Garry; Cleverly, James; Eamus, Derek


    Climate change (CC) presents a challenge for the sustainable development of wheat production systems in Australia. This study aimed to (1) quantify the impact of future CC on wheat grain yield for the period centred on 2030 from the perspectives of wheat phenology, water use and water use efficiency (WUE) and (2) evaluate the effectiveness of changing sowing times and cultivars in response to the expected impacts of future CC on wheat grain yield. The daily outputs of CSIRO Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model for baseline and future periods were used by a stochastic weather generator to derive changes in mean climate and in climate variability and to construct local climate scenarios, which were then coupled with a wheat crop model to achieve the two research aims. We considered three locations in New South Wales, Australia, six times of sowing (TOS) and three bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars in this study. Simulation results show that in 2030 (1) for impact analysis, wheat phenological events are expected to occur earlier and crop water use is expected to decrease across all cases (the combination of three locations, six TOS and three cultivars), wheat grain yield would increase or decrease depending on locations and TOS; and WUE would increase in most of the cases; (2) for adaptation considerations, the combination of TOS and cultivars with the highest yield varied across locations. Wheat growers at different locations will require different strategies in managing the negative impacts or taking the opportunities of future CC.

  4. Effectiveness of time of sowing and cultivar choice for managing climate change: wheat crop phenology and water use efficiency. (United States)

    Luo, Qunying; O'Leary, Garry; Cleverly, James; Eamus, Derek


    Climate change (CC) presents a challenge for the sustainable development of wheat production systems in Australia. This study aimed to (1) quantify the impact of future CC on wheat grain yield for the period centred on 2030 from the perspectives of wheat phenology, water use and water use efficiency (WUE) and (2) evaluate the effectiveness of changing sowing times and cultivars in response to the expected impacts of future CC on wheat grain yield. The daily outputs of CSIRO Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model for baseline and future periods were used by a stochastic weather generator to derive changes in mean climate and in climate variability and to construct local climate scenarios, which were then coupled with a wheat crop model to achieve the two research aims. We considered three locations in New South Wales, Australia, six times of sowing (TOS) and three bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars in this study. Simulation results show that in 2030 (1) for impact analysis, wheat phenological events are expected to occur earlier and crop water use is expected to decrease across all cases (the combination of three locations, six TOS and three cultivars), wheat grain yield would increase or decrease depending on locations and TOS; and WUE would increase in most of the cases; (2) for adaptation considerations, the combination of TOS and cultivars with the highest yield varied across locations. Wheat growers at different locations will require different strategies in managing the negative impacts or taking the opportunities of future CC.

  5. Terrace styles and timing of terrace formation in the Weser and Leine valleys, northern Germany: Response of a fluvial system to climate change and glaciation (United States)

    Winsemann, Jutta; Lang, Jörg; Roskosch, Julia; Polom, Ulrich; Böhner, Utz; Brandes, Christian; Glotzbach, Christoph; Frechen, Manfred


    In glaciated continental basins accommodation space is not only controlled by tectonics and sea-level but also by the position of ice-sheets, which may act as a regional base-level for fluvial systems. Although the Pleistocene terrace record of major river systems in northwestern Europe has been investigated by many authors, relatively little attention has been paid to base-level changes related to glacier advance-retreat cycles and how these regional changes in base-level interacted with river catchment processes. This study provides a synthesis of the stratigraphic architecture of Middle Pleistocene to Holocene fluvial terraces in the upper Weser and middle Leine valley in northern Germany and links it to glaciation, climate and base-level change. The depositional architecture of the fluvial terrace deposits has been reconstructed from outcrops and high-resolution shear wave seismic profiles. The chronology is based on luminescence ages, 230Th/U ages, 14C ages and Middle Palaeolithic archaeological assemblages. The drainage system of the study area developed during the Early Miocene. During the Pleistocene up to 170 m of fluvial incision took place. A major change in terrace style from strath terraces to cut-and-fill terraces occurred during the early Middle Pleistocene before Marine Isotope Stage MIS 12, which may correlate with climate deterioration and the onset of glaciation in northern central Europe. During this time a stable buffer zone was established within which channels avulsed and cut and filled freely without leaving these vertical confines. Climate was the dominant driver for river incision and aggradation, whereas the terrace style was controlled by base-level changes during ice-sheet growth and decay. A major effect of glacio-isostatic processes was the post-Elsterian re-direction of the River Weser and River Leine. The Middle Pleistocene fluvial terraces are vertically stacked, indicating a high aggradation to degradation ratio, corresponding

  6. Climate variability, weather and enteric disease incidence in New Zealand: time series analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aparna Lal

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Evaluating the influence of climate variability on enteric disease incidence may improve our ability to predict how climate change may affect these diseases. OBJECTIVES: To examine the associations between regional climate variability and enteric disease incidence in New Zealand. METHODS: Associations between monthly climate and enteric diseases (campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis were investigated using Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA models. RESULTS: No climatic factors were significantly associated with campylobacteriosis and giardiasis, with similar predictive power for univariate and multivariate models. Cryptosporidiosis was positively associated with average temperature of the previous month (β =  0.130, SE =  0.060, p <0.01 and inversely related to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI two months previously (β =  -0.008, SE =  0.004, p <0.05. By contrast, salmonellosis was positively associated with temperature (β  = 0.110, SE = 0.020, p<0.001 of the current month and SOI of the current (β  = 0.005, SE = 0.002, p<0.050 and previous month (β  = 0.005, SE = 0.002, p<0.05. Forecasting accuracy of the multivariate models for cryptosporidiosis and salmonellosis were significantly higher. CONCLUSIONS: Although spatial heterogeneity in the observed patterns could not be assessed, these results suggest that temporally lagged relationships between climate variables and national communicable disease incidence data can contribute to disease prediction models and early warning systems.

  7. To finance climate: time for action. Seven proposals for France and Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aglietta, Michel; Espagne, Etienne; Perrissin Fabert, Baptiste


    In this paper, the authors aims at showing how France and Europe could play a key role in a new definition of the global financial framework to support transition towards a carbon-neutral world. In order to do so, they formulate seven proposals which aim at strengthening the existing French ecosystem related to finance and climate issues, at reducing financial consequences of the climate system risk, at acting on the profitability of low carbon investments, and at proposing a horizon to the European Union away from the present spectre of stagnation

  8. Tectonics and the photosynthetic habitable zone (Invited) (United States)

    Sleep, N. H.


    The traditional habitable zone lies between an inner stellar radius where the surface of the planet becomes too hot for liquid water carbon-based life and on outer radius, where the surface freezes. It is effectively the zone where photosynthesis is feasible. The concept extends to putative life on objects with liquid methane at the surface, like Titan. As a practical matter, photosynthesis leaves detectable biosignatures in the geological record; black shale on the Earth indicates that sulfide and probably FeO based photosynthesis existed by 3.8 Ga. The hard crustal rocks and the mantle sequester numerous photosynthetic biosignatures. Photosynthesis can produce detectable free oxygen with ozone in the atmosphere of extrasolar planets. In contrast, there is no outer limit for subsurface life in large silicate objects. Pre-photosynthetic niches are dependable but meager and not very detectable at great antiquity or great distance, with global productivity less than 1e-3 of the photosynthetic ones. Photosynthetic organisms have bountiful energy that modifies their surface environment and even tectonics. For example, metamorphic rocks formed at the expense of thick black shale are highly radioactive and hence self-fluxing. Active tectonics with volcanism and metamorphism prevents volatiles from being sequestered in the subsurface as on Mars. A heat-pipe object, like a larger Io, differs from the Earth in that the volatiles return to the deep interior distributed within massive volcanic deposits rather than concentrated in the shallow oceanic crust. One the Earth, the return of water to the surface by arc volcanoes controls its mantle abundance at the transition between behaving as a trace element and behaving as a major element that affects melting. The ocean accumulates the water that the mantle and crust do not take. The Earth has the “right” amount of water that erosion/deposition and tectonics both tend to maintain near sea level surfaces. The mantle contains

  9. Earthquakes as Expressions of Tectonic Activity

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    With an introduction to the ideas of plate tectonics and earthquake terminology, this article introduces ... timum thickness, to generate a fragmented architecture. A hard and fragmented outer shell, floating on the ... The basic idea of the plate tectonic model is that the outer shell of the Earth is divided into several plates, both ...

  10. Plate Tectonic Cycle. K-6 Science Curriculum. (United States)

    Blueford, J. R.; And Others

    Plate Tectonics Cycle is one of the units of a K-6 unified science curriculum program. The unit consists of four organizing sub-themes: (1) volcanoes (covering formation, distribution, and major volcanic groups); (2) earthquakes (with investigations on wave movements, seismograms and sub-suface earth currents); (3) plate tectonics (providing maps…

  11. Geomorphological features of active tectonics and ongoing ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 124; Issue 6. Geomorphological features of active tectonics and ... concluded that the region is still tectonically active. The information would be very important in identifying the areas of hazard prone and also planning and designing of the socio-economic projects.

  12. The Geomorphological Evolution of a Landscape in a Tectonically Active Region: the Sennwald Landslide (United States)

    Aksay, Selçuk; Ivy-Ochs, Susan; Hippe, Kristina; Graemiger, Lorenz; Vockenhuber, Christof


    earthquake activity shows that this region is tectonically still active (Mosar, 1999) with numerous earthquakes. The exposure ages imply that the rock failure occurred during the middle Holocene, a period of increased neotectonic activity in Eastern Alps suggested by Prager et al. (2007). This time period also coincides with notably wet climate, which has been suggested as an important trigger for landslides around this age across the Alps (Zerathe et al., 2014).

  13. Co-designing research on transgressive learning in times of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lotz-Sisitka, Heila; Ali, Million Belay; Mphepo, Gibson; Chaves, Martha; Macintyre, Thomas; Pesanayi, Tichaona; Wals, Arjen; Mukute, Mutizwa; Kronlid, David; Tran, Duc Tuan; Joon, Deepika; McGarry, Dylan


    This paper reflects on the epistemological context for the co-design of a research programme on transformative, transgressive learning emerging at the nexus of climate change, water and food security, energy and social justice. It outlines a sequence of learning actions that we, as a group of

  14. Changes in time of sowing, flowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Olesen, J. E.; Borgesen, C. D.; Elsgaard, L.; Palosuo, T.; Rotter, R.; Skjelvag, A. O.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Borjesson, T.; Trnka, Miroslav; Ewert, F.; Siebert, S.; Brisson, N.; Eitzinger, J.; van Asselt, E. D.; Oberforster, M.; van der Fels-Klerx, H. J.


    Roč. 29, č. 10 (2012), s. 1527-1542 ISSN 1944-0049 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : phenology * wheat * oats * maize * climate change * temperature Subject RIV: GC - Agronomy Impact factor: 2.220, year: 2012

  15. North atlantic multidecadal climate variability: An investigation of dominant time scales and processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frankcombe, L.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304829838; von der Heydt, A.S.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/245567526; Dijkstra, H.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073504467


    The issue of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic has been an important topic of late. It is clear that there are multidecadal variations in several climate variables in the North Atlantic, such as sea surface temperature and sea level height. The details of this variability, in particular


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mensing


    Full Text Available A number of recent paleoenvironmental studies have argued that abrupt changes in climate have been the primary cause for societal collapse. Many social scientists, including anthropologists and environmental historians, reject environmental explanations as deterministic and overly simplistic. They argue that socio-political decisions contribute to environmental change and that efforts to study societal vulnerability within a human-environment system must include analysis of complex social structures. There is a gap in our understanding of how past societies responded to climate change because there are very few interdisciplinary studies that integrate both physical and behavioral sciences in paleoenvironmental reconstructions. While there is a general sense that modern societies are more insulated than pre-industrial societies from the effects of climate change, this may not prove to be true. A more complete understanding of how both natural and human-caused changes have affected the environment in the past can potentially guide decisions aimed at promoting future sustainability. Here we present a project funded by the United States National Science Foundation that will explicitly integrate paleoenvironmental reconstruction with socioeconomic history in a local context to identify linkages between social and environmental change associated with climate variability.

  17. New Tree-Ring Evidence from the Pyrenees Reveals Western Mediterranean Climate Variability since Medieval Times

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Büntgen, Ulf; Krusic, P. J.; Verstege, A.; Sanguesa-Barreda, G.; Wagner, S.; Camarero, J. J.; Ljungqvist, F. C.; Zorita, E.; Oppenheimer, C.; Konter, O.; Tegel, W.; Gärtner, H.; Cherubini, P.; Reinig, F.; Esper, J.


    Roč. 30, č. 14 (2017), s. 5295-5318 ISSN 0894-8755 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Europe * Volcanoes * Climate variability * Interannual variability * Multidecadal variability * Trends Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 4.161, year: 2016

  18. Timing of meltwater pulse 1a and climate responses to meltwater injections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stanford, Jennifer D.; Rohling, Eelco J.; Hunter, Sally E.


    rises, and yet these periods were characterized by intense NADW slowdowns/shutdowns. Clearly, deepwater formation and climate are not simply controlled by the magnitude or rate of meltwater addition. Instead, our results emphasize that the location of meltwater pulses may be more important, with NADW...

  19. China's Coming of Age on Climate Change. Just in time for Paris?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faure-Schuyer, Aurelie; Seaman, John


    The upcoming Paris climate conference (COP21) is opening the door to a new post-2020 climate regime in which China and other large emitters will have to provide strong evidence of their domestic efforts in addressing global warming in the next century. China's domestic climate policy remains consistent in favoring robust action to reduce the country's projected emissions trajectory and its impact on climate change. An increased emphasis on environmental protection at the political level, the identification of clean energy technologies as new strategic industries for China and a push to restructure the country's economy towards less energy-intensive sectors, provide an outlook scenario for a peak in CO 2 emissions by 2030. This was ultimately the target offered by China in its landmark climate agreement with the US in November 2014, which also saw China agreeing to achieve 20% of its energy production from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030. Nevertheless, there are doubts regarding China's willingness to make commitments beyond what it has already announced in the November agreement and the role it will ultimately play in Paris this December. On the one hand, its remaining domestic challenges provide a hefty degree of uncertainty about whether it can achieve the commitments it has already made. A strong political will to combat pollution, for example, does not always translate into decreased emissions at the national level. Moreover, it remains uncertain whether China's vast anti-corruption campaign will ultimately facilitate strong reforms by reinforcing the central government's power, stall the country's bureaucratic machine and thus weaken momentum for reforms, or perhaps even lead to a longer-term political instability. Each of these scenarios will have a different affect on the country's ability to implement climate policy. China's position is also complicated by a unique international stance between an increasingly

  20. Emplacement of sandstone intrusions during contractional tectonics (United States)

    Palladino, Giuseppe; Grippa, Antonio; Bureau, Denis; Alsop, G. Ian; Hurst, Andrew


    Sandstone injections are created by the forceful emplacement of remobilized sand in response to increases in overpressure. However, the contribution provided by horizontal compressive stress to the build-up in overpressure, and the resulting emplacement of sand injection complexes, is still to be substantiated by robust field observations. An opportunity to address this issue occurs in Central California where a large volume of sandstone intrusions record regionally-persistent supra-lithostatic pore-pressure. Detailed fieldwork allows sandstone-filled thrusts to be recognized and, for the first time, permits us to demonstrate that some sandstone intrusions are linked to contractional deformation affecting the western border of the Great Valley Basin. Fluidized sand was extensively injected along thrust surfaces, and also fills local dilatant cavities linked to thrusting. The main aims of this paper are to provide detailed descriptions of the newly recognized syn-tectonic injections, and describe detailed cross-cutting relationships with earlier sandstone injection complexes in the study area. Finally, an evolutionary model consisting of three phases of sand injection is provided. In this model, sand injection is linked to contractional tectonic episodes affecting the western side of the Great Valley Basin during the Early-Middle Cenozoic. This study demonstrates that sand injections, driven by fluid overpressure, may inject along thrusts and folds and thereby overcome stresses associated with regional contractional deformation. It is shown that different generations of sand injection can develop in the same area under the control of different stress regimes, linked to the evolving mountain chain.

  1. The significance of cloud-radiative forcing to the general circulation on climate time scales - A satellite interpretation (United States)

    Sohn, Byung-Ju; Smith, Eric A.


    This paper focuses on the role of cloud- and surface-atmosphere forcing on the net radiation balance and their potential impact on the general circulation at climate time scales. The globally averaged cloud-forcing estimates and cloud sensitivity values taken from various recent studies are summarized. It is shown that the net radiative heating over the tropics is principally due to high clouds, while the net cooling in mid- and high latitudes is dominated by low and middle clouds.

  2. Cenozoic climate changes: A review based on time series analysis of marine benthic d18O records


    Mudelsee, Manfred; Bickert, T.; Lear, Caroline H.; Lohmann, Gerrit


    The climate during the Cenozoic era changed in several steps from ice-free poles and warm conditions to ice-covered poles and cold conditions. Since the 1950s, a body of information on ice volume and temperature changes has been built up predominantly on the basis of measurements of the oxygen isotopic composition of shells of benthic foraminifera collected from marine sediment cores. The statistical methodology of time series analysis has also evolved, allowing more information to be extract...

  3. Cenozoic climate changes: A review based on time series analysis of marine benthic δ18O records


    Mudelsee, Manfred; Bickert, Torsten; Lear, Caroline Helen; lohmann, Gerrit


    The climate during the Cenozoic era changed in several steps from ice-free poles and warm conditions to ice-covered poles and cold conditions. Since the 1950s, a body of information on ice-volume and temperature changes has been built up predominantly on the basis of measurements of the oxygen isotopic composition of shells of benthic foraminifera collected from marine sediment cores. The statistical methodology of time series analysis has also evolved, allowing more information to be extract...

  4. Climatic associations of British species distributions show good transferability in time but low predictive accuracy for range change. (United States)

    Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Roy, David B; Gillings, Simon; Fox, Richard; Walker, Kevin; Purvis, Andy


    Conservation planners often wish to predict how species distributions will change in response to environmental changes. Species distribution models (SDMs) are the primary tool for making such predictions. Many methods are widely used; however, they all make simplifying assumptions, and predictions can therefore be subject to high uncertainty. With global change well underway, field records of observed range shifts are increasingly being used for testing SDM transferability. We used an unprecedented distribution dataset documenting recent range changes of British vascular plants, birds, and butterflies to test whether correlative SDMs based on climate change provide useful approximations of potential distribution shifts. We modelled past species distributions from climate using nine single techniques and a consensus approach, and projected the geographical extent of these models to a more recent time period based on climate change; we then compared model predictions with recent observed distributions in order to estimate the temporal transferability and prediction accuracy of our models. We also evaluated the relative effect of methodological and taxonomic variation on the performance of SDMs. Models showed good transferability in time when assessed using widespread metrics of accuracy. However, models had low accuracy to predict where occupancy status changed between time periods, especially for declining species. Model performance varied greatly among species within major taxa, but there was also considerable variation among modelling frameworks. Past climatic associations of British species distributions retain a high explanatory power when transferred to recent time--due to their accuracy to predict large areas retained by species--but fail to capture relevant predictors of change. We strongly emphasize the need for caution when using SDMs to predict shifts in species distributions: high explanatory power on temporally-independent records--as assessed using

  5. Climatic associations of British species distributions show good transferability in time but low predictive accuracy for range change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Rapacciuolo

    Full Text Available Conservation planners often wish to predict how species distributions will change in response to environmental changes. Species distribution models (SDMs are the primary tool for making such predictions. Many methods are widely used; however, they all make simplifying assumptions, and predictions can therefore be subject to high uncertainty. With global change well underway, field records of observed range shifts are increasingly being used for testing SDM transferability. We used an unprecedented distribution dataset documenting recent range changes of British vascular plants, birds, and butterflies to test whether correlative SDMs based on climate change provide useful approximations of potential distribution shifts. We modelled past species distributions from climate using nine single techniques and a consensus approach, and projected the geographical extent of these models to a more recent time period based on climate change; we then compared model predictions with recent observed distributions in order to estimate the temporal transferability and prediction accuracy of our models. We also evaluated the relative effect of methodological and taxonomic variation on the performance of SDMs. Models showed good transferability in time when assessed using widespread metrics of accuracy. However, models had low accuracy to predict where occupancy status changed between time periods, especially for declining species. Model performance varied greatly among species within major taxa, but there was also considerable variation among modelling frameworks. Past climatic associations of British species distributions retain a high explanatory power when transferred to recent time--due to their accuracy to predict large areas retained by species--but fail to capture relevant predictors of change. We strongly emphasize the need for caution when using SDMs to predict shifts in species distributions: high explanatory power on temporally-independent records

  6. Growth of a tectonic ridge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fleming, R.W.; Messerich, J.A. [Geological Survey, Denver, CO (United States); Johnson, A.M. [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences


    The 28 June 1992 Landers, California, earthquake of M 7.6 created an impressive record of surface rupture and ground deformation. Fractures extend over a length of more than 80 km including zones of right-lateral shift, steps in the fault zones, fault intersections and vertical changes. Among the vertical changes was the growth of a tectonic ridge described here. In this paper the authors describe the Emerson fault zone and the Tortoise Hill ridge including the relations between the fault zone and the ridge. They present data on the horizontal deformation at several scales associated with activity within the ridge and belt of shear zones and show the differential vertical uplifts. And, they conclude with a discussion of potential models for the observed deformation.

  7. The Ecology of Urban Tectonics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beim, Anne; Hvejsel, Marie Frier


    unfairly neglected when accounting for the great modern heroes of Danish architecture. Just recently, examples of his work have been thoroughly presented in the Danish architectural magazine; ‘Arkitekten’. (Keiding 2013) This paper analyses two works of Hansen: Bremerholm Transformer Station and Bellahøj......’. In this way Hansen’s work sets an example in itself as built heritage, but in addition, they set a methodological example when valued in relation to Frampton’s notion of the arrière-garde. Hansen’s work witnesses a critical and reflective ability on his behalf that enables him to act in everyday practice....... In concluding, it is our finding, that it is exactly here that research into the field of tectonics holds it potential. NOT as “optimization of advanced technology” and visual occupation with structural elements as such and NOT as “the ever-present tendency to regress into nostalgic historicism or the glibly...

  8. Active tectonics around the Mediterranean region: site studies and application of new methodologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luigi Cucci


    Full Text Available More than 25 years have passed since the definition of Active Tectonics as "tectonic movements that are expected to occur within a future time span of concern to society", formulated in a milestone book by the National Research Council on this topic (Studies in Geophysics, Active Tectonics, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. 1986, and those words have still to be considered the most suitable and exhaustive way to explain this branch of the Earth Sciences. Indeed only bridging together basic studies ("tectonic movements", rates of occurrence ("time span" and hazard assessment ("society" can we fully evaluate ongoing tectonic activity and its associated hazards. The broad Mediterranean Sea region is a paradigmatic area from this point of view, as on one hand this region displays in a relatively limited geographic extent a great variety of tectonic processes such as plate collision, subduction, volcanic activity, large-magnitude earthquakes, active folding and faulting, vertical uplift and/or subsidence. On the other hand, all the above mentioned tectonic processes can potentially affect a total population of about 450 million, mostly concentrated in fast-growing urban areas and/or close to industrial compounds and critical facilities often located nearby hazard sources. […

  9. The fluvial record of climate change. (United States)

    Macklin, M G; Lewin, J; Woodward, J C


    Fluvial landforms and sediments can be used to reconstruct past hydrological conditions over different time scales once allowance has been made for tectonic, base-level and human complications. Field stratigraphic evidence is explored here at three time scales: the later Pleistocene, the Holocene, and the historical and instrumental period. New data from a range of field studies demonstrate that Croll-Milankovitch forcing, Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events, enhanced monsoon circulation, millennial- to centennial-scale climate variability within the Holocene (probably associated with solar forcing and deep ocean circulation) and flood-event variability in recent centuries can all be discerned in the fluvial record. Although very significant advances have been made in river system and climate change research in recent years, the potential of fluvial palaeohydrology has yet to be fully realized, to the detriment of climatology, public health, resource management and river engineering. This journal is © 2012 The Royal Society

  10. Grabens on Io: Evidence for Extensional Tectonics (United States)

    Hoogenboom, T.; Schenk, P.


    (as also occurs extensively on neighboring Europa). The record can be confused if the features formed at different times or if the stress pattern shifts due to nonsynchronous rotation of the lithosphere (Milazzo et al., 2001). Alternatively, curvilinear or concentric extensional fractures (graben) could be related to local loading of planetary lithospheres. On Io, this could be the result of construction of volcanic edifices or global convection patterns forming localized sites of upwelling and downwelling (e.g., Tackley et al., 2001). However, constructional volcanic edifices are quite rare on Io (Schenk et al., 2004a) and convective stresses on Io are likely to be quite small (Kirchoff and McKinnon, 2009). An obvious caveat to stress analyses is the possibility of resurfacing locally erasing tectonic signatures of graben, in part or entirely. Despite resurfacing, erosional and tectonic scarps, lineaments and grabens are relatively abundant at all latitudes and longitudes on Io, given the limited global mapping. Grabens are typically not found on the younger units, suggesting that tectonic forces on Io were of greater magnitude in the past, that much of the surface is very young and has not yet undergone deformation, or that only with age do the surface materials become strong enough to deform by brittle failure rather than ductile flow (Whitford-Stark et al., 1990).

  11. Advances in Web-Based, Near Real-Time Climate Data Ingest For NOAA's Cooperative Volunteer Observation Network (United States)

    Owen, T.; Brewer, M.; Redmond, K.; McCurdy, G.; Kelly, G.; Bonack, B.; Somrek, B.; Doesken, N.; Bollinger, J.


    NOAA is charged with collection, preservation and accessibility of a quality digital record of Cooperative Network data and metadata. This record has historically been derived through the imaging and keying of so- called "B-91' forms that are sent by observers and the National Weather Service to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The processing time, including quality assurance checks and serial publication, typically is 45-60 days beyond the data month. Technological and communication advances, coupled with integrated climate and weather and water reporting needs have reached a threshold where near real-time (i.e., daily) reporting of observations is desirable. While ASOS data have long been directly reported to NCDC in this time horizon, National Weather Service Cooperative Network (COOP) data has continued to be recorded on forms. Timely data reporting is fundamental to the success of the U.S. effort in Global Earth Observations, especially for monitoring drought as part of the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). Coupled with implementation planning for transition of Legacy COOP under NOAA's Environmental Real-Time Observing Network (NERON), work toward such a system is timely. NOAA is working closely with Regional Climate Centers, State Climatologists and other partners to develop a web-based interface based on existing systems (e.g., WxCoder, CoCoRAHS and COOLTAP) to provide for the electronic submission of daily COOP data to NCDC and the climate community. To this end, the following guiding principles have been identified: 1) Provide efficient, easy-to-use data entry system for participating COOP observers, 2) Ensure timely availability of COOP data for all customers, 3) Improve data quality through automated near-real-time data QA/QC, 4) Achieve a paperless electronic data collection, transmission, and archiving system. 5) Allow system flexibility to meet demands of integrating data from future observing systems This presentation

  12. Breaking rocks made easy: subcritical processes and tectonic predesign (United States)

    Voigtlaender, Anne; Krautblatter, Michael


    In geomorphic studies, to change in landforms, e.g. by rock slope failure, fluvial or glacial erosion, a threshold is commonly assumed, which is crossed either by an increase in external driving or a decrease of internal resisting forces, respectively. If the threshold is crossed, bedrock breaks and slope fails, rivers incise and glaciers plug and sew their bed. Here we put forward a focus on the decrease of the resisting forces, as an increase in the driving forces, to match the strength of bedrock, is not that likely. We suggest that the degradation of resisting forces of bedrock can be better explained by subcritical processes like creep, fatigue and stress corrosion interplaying with tectonic predesign. Both concepts, subcritical processes and tectonic predesign have been issued in the last century, but have not been widely accepted nor have their assumptions been explicitly stressed in recent case studies. Moreover both concepts profit especially on scale issues if merged. Subcritical crack growth, includes different mechanisms promoting fractures well below the ultimate strength. Single infinitesimal but irreversible damage and deformations are induced in the material over time. They interact with inherent microstructural flaws and low applied stresses, limiting local strength and macroscopic behavior of bedrock. This reissues the concept of tectonic predesigned, as proposed by A.E. Scheidegger, which not only encompasses structural features that determine the routing of drainage patterns and shear planes, e.g. joints, faults and foliations, but also the (neo)tectonic stress-field and the (in-situ) strain state of bedrocks and mountains. Combining subcritical processes and tectonic predesign we can better explain, why and where we see a dissected, eroded and geomorphic divers' landscape. In this conceptual framework actual magnitudes of the driving forces are accounted for and so is the nature of the bedrock material, to better understand the trajectories of

  13. The enhanced greenhouse signal versus natural variations in observed climate time series: a statistical approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenwiese, C.D. [J.W. Goethe Univ., Frankfurt (Germany). Inst. for Meteorology and Geophysics


    It is a well-known fact that human activities lead to an atmospheric concentration increase of some IR-active trace gases (greenhouse gases GHG) and that this influence enhances the `greenhouse effect`. However, there are major quantitative and regional uncertainties in the related climate model projections and the observational data reflect the whole complex of both anthropogenic and natural forcing of the climate system. This contribution aims at the separation of the anthropogenic enhanced greenhouse signal in observed global surface air temperature data versus other forcing using statistical methods such as multiple (multiforced) regressions and neural networks. The competitive natural forcing considered are volcanic and solar activity, in addition the ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) mechanism. This analysis will be extended also to the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and anthropogenic sulfate formation in the troposphere

  14. Structure and tectonics of western continental margin of India: Implication for geologic hazards

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chaubey, A.K.; Ajay, K.K.

    , and Coastal Processes ofIndian. Coast" Structure and Tectonics ofWestern Continental Margin ofIndia: Implication for Geologic Hazards A.K. Chaubey and K.K. Ajay National Institute ojOceanography. DOM Paula, Goa-403 004 The geomorphological and geological....D., Kroon, D., Gaedicke, c., Craig, J. (Eds.), The Tectonic and Climatic Evolution of the Arabian Sea Region, vol. 195. Geological Society, London, pp. 71"':85 (Special Publications). Chaubey, A.K., Gopala Rao, D., Srinivas, K., Ramprasad, T., Ramana, M...

  15. A space-time statistical climate model for hurricane intensification in the North Atlantic basin (United States)

    Fraza, Erik; Elsner, James B.; Jagger, Thomas H.


    Climate influences on hurricane intensification are investigated by averaging hourly intensification rates over the period 1975-2014 in 8° × 8° latitude-longitude grid cells. The statistical effects of hurricane intensity and sea-surface temperature (SST), along with the climatic effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), are quantified using a Bayesian hierarchical model fit to the averaged data. As expected, stronger hurricanes tend to have higher intensification rates, especially over the warmest waters. Of the three climate variables considered, the NAO has the largest effect on intensification rates after controlling for intensity and SST. The model shows an average increase in intensification rates of 0.18 [0.06, 0.31] m s-1 h-1 (95 % credible interval) for every 1 standard deviation decrease in the NAO index. Weak trade winds associated with the negative phase of the NAO might result in less vertical wind shear and thus higher mean intensification rates.

  16. Time Scavengers: a Website for the Public to Learn about Climate Change and Evolution Through the Experiences of Scientists (United States)

    Fraass, A. J.; Lam, A. R.; Bauer, J.; Bryant, R.; Golder, K.; Hartshorn, K. R.; Hils, J. M.; Limbeck, M.; Sheffield, S. L.


    Climate change and evolution are subjects that are consistently in the public sphere, though as public acceptance and desire to act on these subjects has increased, misinformation has as well. Thus, it is critical that scientists engage the public in discussions on these subjects. Several sites and blogs have attempted to explain these concepts; however, they often focus on one aspect of climate change or evolution, and blogs tend to follow the experiences of one scientist in a specific field. Due to these limitations, we have created a new website, The site, maintained by postdocs, graduate students, and avocational scientists, is unique in that it includes static pages that thoroughly explain climate and evolution related topics and includes 5 blog pages that highlight the experiences of the site collaborators. Blog pages include: `Meet the Scientist', dedicated to introducing the public to scientists in many disciplines; `Science Bytes', focusing on research conducted by the site collaborators; `Education & Outreach', highlighting interactions between site collaborators and the public; and `Climate & Paleo News', explaining the relevance of important papers in climate research, paleoceanography, and paleontology and how they increase our understanding of climate change and evolution. The site also includes a `Teaching Resources' page with links to sites with activities related to the content on the website appropriate for K-12 classrooms. The overarching goal of the site is to bridge the gap between scientists and the public through engaging, informational pages and personal experiences in the field, lab, classroom, and community. Current data indicate that 78% of the public find the site through social media platforms and people ages 25-34 are dominantly interacting with the site. 21.7% of users' first interaction (first click once on the homepage) viewed the `Meet the Scientist' blog, 10.2% viewed the climate pages, and 8.4% visited the

  17. Efectos de la tectónica y el clima en la configuración morfológica del relieve costero del norte de Chile Tectonic and climatic effects in the morphologic configuration of the coastal relief of northern Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Quezada


    The main purpose of this research is to better understand the tectonic and climatic controls on the topography. The methodology used consists basically of a detailed study of the topography with quantitative geomorphic indexes such as incisión grade, hypsometric curves and integráis, thalweg profiles and sinuosity index. These are applied to digital elevation models and satellite images. The main results show that the topography of the western margin of the Coastal Cordillera, exhibits an increasing intensity of the erosión with latitude. This increment is non uniform. The tectonic processes that produced coastal subsidence/uplift and fault activity, and the erosión of the paleotopography of Coastal Cordillera due to processes related with the construction of the Coastal Cliff and increasing rainfall, modify the morphology of the coastal border of northern Chile. The existence and conservation of the Coastal Cliff results from the existance of non-equilibrium between the uplift and erosión rates. Both rates have one-two order magnitude difference, controlled by the extreme hyperarid climate of the Atacama Desert. These conditions prevailed at least for the last 2 m.yrs. The variations in the intensity of the erosión from north to south are interpreted as the result of the southward increase in precipitación by one order of magnitude.

  18. How We Got to the Northern Hemisphere Ice Ages: Late Miocene Global Cooling and Plate Tectonic CO2 Forcing (United States)

    Herbert, T.; Dalton, C. A.; Carchedi, C.


    The evolution of Earth's climate between "refrigeration" of East Antarctica and the onset of cyclic Northern Hemisphere glaciation spanned more than 11 Myr. In the latest Miocene (Messinian) time, approximately half way on this journey, changes on land, ranging from the expansion of arid zones to major floral and faunal ecosystem shifts, accelerated. Recent compilations of marine surface temperatures reveal that global cooling from the Miocene Optimum (14-16Ma) also accelerated in late Miocene (7-5.35 Ma) time to reach temperatures not much above Holocene conditions. Both hemispheres cooled in parallel, with the changes amplified at higher latitudes in comparison to the tropics. Despite the strong circumstantial case for CO2 decline as the dominant cause of late Miocene climatic and evolutionary change, proxy indicators of CO2concentrations paint an equivocal picture of greenhouse forcing. Here we provide evidence that global sea floor spreading (SFS) rates decelerated at exactly the times of major climatic cooling, linking a decline in tectonic degassing (at both subduction zones and mid-ocean ridges) to fundamental shifts in the global carbon cycle. Our work utilizes newly available global compilations of seafloor fabric and marine magnetic anomalies provided by the NSF-funded Global Seafloor Fabric and Magnetic Lineation Data Base Project. Previous global compilations of SFS typically binned estimates over 10 Myr increments, losing critical resolution on the timescale of late Neogene climate changes. We further improve the signal:noise of SFS estimates by incorporating recent advances in the astronomical calibration of the Miocene geomagnetic polarity timescale. We use two approaches to compile spreading rate estimates over the past 20 Myr at each spreading system: optimized finite rotation calculations, and averages of sea floor-spreading derived from the distances of magnetic lineations along flow lines on the sea floor. Weighted by ridge length, we find an 25

  19. Climate assessment and trend analysis in air temperature and precipitation time series in Taubaté (SP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Theophilo Folhes


    Full Text Available The main objectives of this paper are to present the temporal climatic characteristics of precipitation and air temperature in Taubaté (SP, in addition to the characterization of the rainy season. The time trend of the climatic elements were studied using the non parametric seasonal Mann-Kendall test. Statistically, no significant average changes in precipitation were detected although a relatively large natural year-to-year variability there exits. A short-term increasing trend from 1983 to 2005 have been observed in November precipitation, a decreasing trend in the amount of the April precipitation and a decreasing trend in the number of dry days per year. This study suggests that the onset of the Taubaté's rainy season occurs in mid-September and the end is in April.

  20. Towards a Seamless Framework for Drought Analysis and Prediction from Seasonal to Climate Change Time Scales (Plinius Medal Lecture) (United States)

    Sheffield, Justin


    Droughts arguably cause the most impacts of all natural hazards in terms of the number of people affected and the long-term economic costs and ecosystem stresses. Recent droughts worldwide have caused humanitarian and economic problems such as food insecurity across the Horn of Africa, agricultural economic losses across the central US and loss of livelihoods in rural western India. The prospect of future increases in drought severity and duration driven by projected changes in precipitation patterns and increasing temperatures is worrisome. Some evidence for climate change impacts on drought is already being seen for some regions, such as the Mediterranean and east Africa. Mitigation of the impacts of drought requires advance warning of developing conditions and enactment of drought plans to reduce vulnerability. A key element of this is a drought early warning system that at its heart is the capability to monitor evolving hydrological conditions and water resources storage, and provide reliable and robust predictions out to several months, as well as the capacity to act on this information. At longer time scales, planning and policy-making need to consider the potential impacts of climate change and its impact on drought risk, and do this within the context of natural climate variability, which is likely to dominate any climate change signal over the next few decades. There are several challenges that need to be met to advance our capability to provide both early warning at seasonal time scales and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Advancing our understanding of drought predictability and risk requires knowledge of drought at all time scales. This includes understanding of past drought occurrence, from the paleoclimate record to the recent past, and understanding of drought mechanisms, from initiation, through persistence to recovery and translation of this understanding to predictive models. Current approaches to monitoring and

  1. Analysis of forecasting malaria case with climatic factors as predictor in Mandailing Natal Regency: a time series study (United States)

    Aulia, D.; Ayu, S. F.; Matondang, A.


    Malaria is the most contagious global concern. As a public health problem with outbreaks, affect the quality of life and economy, also could lead to death. Therefore, this research is to forecast malaria cases with climatic factors as predictors in Mandailing Natal Regency. The total number of positive malaria cases on January 2008 to December 2016 were taken from health department of Mandailing Natal Regency. Climates data such as rainfall, humidity, and temperature were taken from Center of Statistic Department of Mandailing Natal Regency. E-views ver. 9 is used to analyze this study. Autoregressive integrated average, ARIMA (0,1,1) (1,0,0)12 is the best model to explain the 67,2% variability data in time series study. Rainfall (P value = 0.0005), temperature (P value = 0,0029) and humidity (P value = 0.0001) are significant predictors for malaria transmission. Seasonal adjusted factor (SAF) in November and March shows peak for malaria cases.

  2. Particulate matter time-series and Köppen-Geiger climate classes in North America and Europe (United States)

    Pražnikar, Jure


    Four years of time-series data on the particulate matter (PM) concentrations from 801 monitoring stations located in Europe and 234 stations in North America were analyzed. Using k-means clustering with distance correlation as a measure for similarity, 5 distinct PM clusters in Europe and 9 clusters across the United States of America (USA) were found. This study shows that meteorology has an important role in controlling PM concentrations, as comparison between Köppen-Geiger climate zones and identified PM clusters revealed very good spatial overlapping. Moreover, the Köppen-Geiger boundaries in Europe show a high similarity to the boundaries as defined by PM clusters. The western USA is much more diverse regarding climate zones; this characteristic was confirmed by cluster analysis, as 6 clusters were identified in the west, and only 3 were identified on the eastern side of the USA. The lowest similarity between PM time-series in Europe was observed between the Iberian Peninsula and the north Europe clusters. These two regions also show considerable differences, as the cold semi-arid climate has a long and hot summer period, while the cool continental climate has a short summertime and long and cold winters. Additionally, intra-continental examination of European clusters showed meteorologically driven phenomena in autumn 2011 encompassing a large European region from Bulgaria in the south, Germany in central Europe and Finland in the north with high PM concentrations in November and a decline in December 2011. Inter-continental comparison between Europe and the USA clusters revealed a remarkable difference between the PM time-series located in humid continental zone. It seems that because of higher shortwave downwelling radiation (≈210 W m-2) over the USA's continental zone, and consequently more intense production of secondary aerosols, a summer peak in PM concentration was observed. On the other hand, Europe's humid continental climate region experiences

  3. Towards a tectonic sustainable building practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beim, Anne


    and environmental problems? The objective of the project is to analyse and develop the tectonic practice based on case studies, in relation to: • Cultural anchoring and identity creation • Building culture and creative processes • Sustainability, lifecycle and resource management The research project is divided...... into a main project and various subprojects, respectively, two levels that mutually feed each other.The main project, which constitutes the general level, seeks to identify a coherent strategy towards a new tectonically sustainable building culture.The subprojects look at partial issues and go into specific...... questions dealing with central aspects of the overall project: tectonics, identity creation, cultural heritage/recycling and sustainability....

  4. In a warming climate, just how predictable are temperature extremes at weather and seasonal time scales?

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA


    Full Text Available stream_source_info Landman7_2011.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 3538 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name Landman7_2011.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 In a warming climate... at UK Met Office N9 members SA Japan UKUSA USA Brazil* SA SASA * IBSA-Ocean In use Near future Far future VCM/UTCM ENSEMBLES Strong anthropogenically forced warming trends have been observed over southern Africa and are projected...

  5. Thousand-year-long Chinese time series reveals climatic forcing of decadal locust dynamics. (United States)

    Stige, Leif Christian; Chan, Kung-Sik; Zhang, Zhibin; Frank, David; Stenseth, Nils C


    For >1,000 years, Chinese officials have recorded the annual abundance of the oriental migratory locust Locusta migratoria manilensis, with the ultimate aim of predicting locust outbreaks. Linking these records with temperature and precipitation reconstructions for the period 957-1956, we show that decadal mean locust abundance is highest during cold and wet periods. These periods coincide with above-average frequencies of both floods and droughts in the lower Yangtze River, phenomena that are associated with locust outbreaks. Our results imply differential ecological responses to interdecadal and interannual climatic variability. Such frequency-dependent effects deserve increased attention in global warming studies.

  6. Assessment of Regional Vegetation Response to Climate Anomalies : A Case Study for Australia Using GIMMS NDVI Time Series between 1982 and 2006

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Keersmaecker, W.; Lhermitte, S.L.M.; Hill, M.J.; Tits, L.; Coppin, P.; Somers, B.


    Within the context of climate change, it is of utmost importance to quantify the stability of ecosystems with respect to climate anomalies. It is well acknowledged that ecosystem stability may change over time. As these temporal stability changes may provide a warning for increased vulnerability of

  7. Book of Abstracts of 18th Forum: Energy Day in Croatia: Quo Vadis- Energy in Time of Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The 18th Forum of the Croatian Energy Society, titled Quo Vadis Energy in Times of Climate Change, is focused on analysis and thinking about energy sector development in the conditions of dramatically reducing the CO 2 and greenhouse gases emissions and in the eve of the Copenhagen Climate Summit. The commitments to radically down size CO 2 emissions will change the approach to planning and development of the energy sector. There is high probability that in the time frame of 20 to 30 years a new technology platform will have been introduced through the whole technological cycle, from generation to consumption of energy. It is expected that breakthroughs will be made towards clean and more efficient technologies, but with significantly higher price levels. The changes in the energy sector will affect everyone, from general public to energy buying companies, and most of all it will affect the companies in the energy sector. The changes in the energy sector, which are to contribute to climate preservation, are a realistic and achievable goal, but they come with a price. We can expect to see the doubling of the prices, not in the near future of course, but undoubtedly in the times of great changes in the energy sector. The realisation of these changes requires a great deal of political determination in the international context, as well as fair solutions which will enable the advancement of the underdeveloped and less developed nations. Also, a strong support to the technological development is needed. The climate preservation can be a powerful generator of the international cooperation, especially as a synergy in the technological development. Technological development can be the most important asset in solving the problems of climate preservation, with the condition, of course, that the resources for research are increased and that the developed countries join efforts in using the knowledge they have, and that a non-discriminatory transfer of knowledge to the

  8. Mantle structure and tectonic history of SE Asia (United States)

    Hall, Robert; Spakman, Wim


    Seismic travel-time tomography of the mantle under SE Asia reveals patterns of subduction-related seismic P-wave velocity anomalies that are of great value in helping to understand the region's tectonic development. We discuss tomography and tectonic interpretations of an area centred on Indonesia and including Malaysia, parts of the Philippines, New Guinea and northern Australia. We begin with an explanation of seismic tomography and causes of velocity anomalies in the mantle, and discuss assessment of model quality for tomographic models created from P-wave travel times. We then introduce the global P-wave velocity anomaly model UU-P07 and the tectonic model used in this paper and give an overview of previous interpretations of mantle structure. The slab-related velocity anomalies we identify in the upper and lower mantle based on the UU-P07 model are interpreted in terms of the tectonic model and illustrated with figures and movies. Finally, we discuss where tomographic and tectonic models for SE Asia converge or diverge, and identify the most important conclusions concerning the history of the region. The tomographic images of the mantle record subduction beneath the SE Asian region to depths of approximately 1600 km. In the upper mantle anomalies mainly record subduction during the last 10 to 25 Ma, depending on the region considered. We interpret a vertical slab tear crossing the entire upper mantle north of west Sumatra where there is a strong lateral kink in slab morphology, slab holes between c.200-400 km below East Java and Sumbawa, and offer a new three-slab explanation for subduction in the North Sulawesi region. There is a different structure in the lower mantle compared to the upper mantle and the deep structure changes from west to east. What was imaged in earlier models as a broad and deep anomaly below SE Asia has a clear internal structure and we argue that many features can be identified as older subduction zones. We identify remnants of slabs

  9. Sensitivity of isoprene emissions estimated using MEGAN to the time resolution of input climate data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Ashworth


    Full Text Available We evaluate the effect of varying the temporal resolution of the input climate data on isoprene emission estimates generated by the community emissions model MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature. The estimated total global annual emissions of isoprene is reduced from 766 Tg y−1 when using hourly input data to 746 Tg y−1 (a reduction of 3% for daily average input data and 711 Tg y−1 (down 7% for monthly average input data. The impact on a local scale can be more significant with reductions of up to 55% at some locations when using monthly average data compared with using hourly data. If the daily and monthly average temperature data are used without the imposition of a diurnal cycle the global emissions estimates fall by 27–32%, and local annual emissions by up to 77%. A similar pattern emerges if hourly isoprene fluxes are considered. In order to better simulate and predict isoprene emission rates using MEGAN, we show it is necessary to use temperature and radiation data resolved to one hour. Given the importance of land-atmosphere interactions in the Earth system and the low computational cost of the MEGAN algorithms, we recommend that chemistry-climate models and the new generation of Earth system models input biogenic emissions at the highest temporal resolution possible.

  10. Seismicity and tectonics of Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hossain, K.M.


    Northern and eastern Bangladesh and surrounding areas belong to a seismically active zone and are associated with the subduction of the Indian plate. The seismicity and tectonics have been studied in detail and the observations have been correlated to understand the earthquake phenomenon in the region. The morphotectonic behaviour of northern Bangladesh shows that it is deeply related to the movement of the Dauki fault system and relative upliftment of the Shillong plateau. Contemporary seismicity in the Dauki fault system is relatively quiet comparing to that in the Naga-Disang-Haflong thrust belt giving rise to the probability of sudden release of energy being accumulated in the vicinity of the Dauki fault system. This observation corresponds with the predicted average return period of a large earthquake (1897 type) and the possibility of M > 8 earthquake in the vicinity of the Dauki fault within this century should not be ruled out. The seismicity in the folded belt in the east follows the general trend of Arakan-Yoma anticlinorium and represents shallow and low-angled thrust movements in conformity with the field observation. Seismotectonic behaviour in the deep basin part of Bangladesh demonstrates that an intraplate movement in the basement rock has been taking place along the deep-seated faults causing relative upliftment and subsidence in the basin. Bangladesh has been divided into three seismic zones on the basis of morphotectonic and seismic behaviour. Zone-I has been identified as the zone of high seismic risk. (author). 43 refs, 5 figs, 3 tabs

  11. The Tectonic Potentials of Concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Egholm Pedersen, Ole


    Contemporary techniques for concrete casting in an architectural context are challenged by demands of increased individualization in our built environment, reductions in the use of resources and waste generation. In recent years, new production technologies and strategies that break with the indu......Contemporary techniques for concrete casting in an architectural context are challenged by demands of increased individualization in our built environment, reductions in the use of resources and waste generation. In recent years, new production technologies and strategies that break...... with the industrial paradigm of standardization, have been put forward. This development is carried forward by computers and digital fabrication, but has yet to find its way into the production of building components. With regards to concrete casting, however, existing research do offer advancement towards...... an increased customisation of casting moulds. The hypothesis of this research is that the techniques used in this research do not fully address the tectonic potentials of concrete which gives rise to the primary research question: Is it possible to enhance existing or develop new concrete casting techniques...

  12. Apollo 17: One giant step toward understanding the tectonic evolution of the Moon (United States)

    Sharpton, Virgil L.


    Our present understanding of the tectonic history of the Moon has been shaped in large measure by the Apollo Program, and particularly the Apollo 17 Mission. I attempt to summarize some of the interpretations that have emerged since Apollo 17, focusing on some of the problems and uncertainties that remain to stimulate future exploration of the Moon. The topics covered include: (1) Taurus-Littrow Valley; (2) origin of mare ridges; and (3) nature and timing of tectonic rille formation.

  13. Can a calibration in time be used to infer climate for the last 1000 years climate using chironomids (non-biting midges) preserved in lake sediments? (United States)

    Larocque-Tobler, Isabelle; Grosjean, Martin; Kamenik, Christian


    Calibrations in space (i.e chironomid samples in many lakes calibrated with meteorological data) are generally used to quantitatively reconstruct air/water temperature. However, developing such transfer functions is time- and money- consuming, thus many chironomid-inferred temperature records are based on transfer functions from other regions. Here, another way of obtaining quantitative climate reconstructions from chironomid assemblages is assessed. A calibration in time (i.e. chironomid assemblage time series calibrated with meteorological data (AD 1864-1950)) was developed using a weighted-average-partial-least-square (WAPLS) model and compared with a calibration in space model for the last 1000 years. The calibration in time had a weaker correlation coefficient (r2=0.71) than the calibration in space (r2=0.86), but the error of prediction (RMSEP=0.58°C) and the maximum bias (Max Bias=0.73°C) outperformed the statistics of the calibration in space (RMSEP=1.5°C; Max Bias=1.72), probably due to the smaller temperature gradient of the calibration and the lower number of chironomid taxa. However, both models provided 70% of inferences with differences with instrumental data <1°C at near-annual resolution and 80% of inferences with differences with instrumental data <1°C when 2-year means were used for comparison. On millenial scale, the calibration in space provided a temperature reconstruction similar to those obtained with other archives/proxies. This better performance might be due to the better represenation of fossil taxa in the calibration in time

  14. Geologic drivers of late ordovician faunal change in laurentia: investigating links between tectonics, speciation, and biotic invasions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David F Wright

    Full Text Available Geologic process, including tectonics and global climate change, profoundly impact the evolution of life because they have the propensity to facilitate episodes of biogeographic differentiation and influence patterns of speciation. We investigate causal links between a dramatic faunal turnover and two dominant geologic processes operating within Laurentia during the Late Ordovician: the Taconian Orogeny and GICE related global cooling. We utilize a novel approach for elucidating the relationship between biotic and geologic changes using a time-stratigraphic, species-level evolutionary framework for articulated brachiopods from North America. Phylogenetic biogeographic analyses indicate a fundamental shift in speciation mode-from a vicariance to dispersal dominated macroevolutionary regime-across the boundary between the Sandbian to Katian Stages. This boundary also corresponds to the onset of renewed intensification of tectonic activity and mountain building, the development of an upwelling zone that introduced cool, nutrient-rich waters into the epieric seas of eastern Laurentia, and the GICE isotopic excursion. The synchronicity of these dramatic geologic, oceanographic, and macroevolutionary changes supports the influence of geologic events on biological evolution. Together, the renewed tectonic activity and oceanographic changes facilitated fundamental changes in habitat structure in eastern North America that reduced opportunities for isolation and vicariance. They also facilitated regional biotic dispersal of taxa that led to the subsequent establishment of extrabasinal (=invasive species and may have led to a suppression of speciation within Laurentian faunas. Phylogenetic biogeographic analysis further indicates that the Richmondian Invasion was a multidirectional regional invasion event that involved taxa immigrating into the Cincinnati region from basins located near the continental margins and within the continental interior.

  15. Tectonic vocabulary and materialization: Discourse on the future of tectonic architectural research in the Nordic countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beim, Anne; Bundgaard, Charlotte; Hvejsel, Marie Frier


    By referring to the fundamental question of how we unite aesthetics and technology – tectonic theory is necessarily a focal point in the development of the architectural discipline. However, a critical reconsideration of the role of tectonic theory seems necessary when facing the present everyday...... to establish a Nordic Network for Research and Teaching in Tectonics is currently forming. This paper seeks to jointly reflect upon these initiatives in order to bring them further, with the intention to clad a discourse on the future of tectonic architectural research that addresses the conditions of everyday...

  16. Radon emanation in tectonically active areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, C.Y.


    Subsurface radon emanation has been continuously monitored for up to three years by the Track Etch method in shallow dry holes at more than 60 sites along several tectonic faults in central California and at 9 sites near the Kilauea volcano in Hawaii. The measured emanation in these tectonically active areas shows large long-term variations that may be related mainly to crustal strain changes

  17. Merging climate and multi-sensor time-series data in real-time drought monitoring across the U.S.A. (United States)

    Brown, Jesslyn F.; Miura, T.; Wardlow, B.; Gu, Yingxin


    Droughts occur repeatedly in the United States resulting in billions of dollars of damage. Monitoring and reporting on drought conditions is a necessary function of government agencies at multiple levels. A team of Federal and university partners developed a drought decision- support tool with higher spatial resolution relative to traditional climate-based drought maps. The Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) indicates general canopy vegetation condition assimilation of climate, satellite, and biophysical data via geospatial modeling. In VegDRI, complementary drought-related data are merged to provide a comprehensive, detailed representation of drought stress on vegetation. Time-series data from daily polar-orbiting earth observing systems [Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)] providing global measurements of land surface conditions are ingested into VegDRI. Inter-sensor compatibility is required to extend multi-sensor data records; thus, translations were developed using overlapping observations to create consistent, long-term data time series. 

  18. Climate change--the greatest public health threat of our time: seeing the wood, not just the trees. (United States)

    McFarlane, Gary J


    If asked to describe the key public health challenges of our time many practitioners might well cite issues such as health inequalities, obesity, smoking and poverty. However, with the greatest of respect to those agendas, they are not, in my view, the greatest priority at present. If we cannot learn to live within sustainable limits and damage beyond repair the essential life support systems that we depend on, they will fail catastrophically with horrific consequences for humanity. All credible, reliable scientific evidence suggests that without profound and significant change that is exactly where we are headed. However, there is time, albeit short, to avoid the very worst consequences of runaway climate change. But to do so requires collective and urgent action now! Public health practitioners have potentially so much to offer towards this effort. We have many of the skills and experience so critically needed to advocate for change--both political and behavioural; we have the ability to design creative, effective, and dynamic interventions to assist and facilitate communities and individuals make the journey; and equally importantly we have huge opportunities to do so. However to do so effectively means that we need to look at the problem through a different lens and make climate change a top public health priority. We need to see beyond many of the institutional and cultural barriers that exist, albeit not through deliberate design, within our organisations which can cause us to be focused on very specific agendas and see the whole wood, rather than individual trees within it. Climate change is not just an "environmental" problem and a priority therefore specifically for that sector. It is already costing lives and is life threatening on a scale that far surpasses current public health concerns and priorities. Equally critically, tackling climate change would and will significantly contribute towards addressing health inequalities. To use two well worn public

  19. Space-time clustering analysis of wildfires: The influence of dataset characteristics, fire prevention policy decisions, weather and climate. (United States)

    Parente, Joana; Pereira, Mário G; Tonini, Marj


    The present study focuses on the dependence of the space-time permutation scan statistics (STPSS) (1) on the input database's characteristics and (2) on the use of this methodology to assess changes on the fire regime due to different type of climate and fire management activities. Based on the very strong relationship between weather and the fire incidence in Portugal, the detected clusters will be interpreted in terms of the atmospheric conditions. Apart from being the country most affected by the fires in the European context, Portugal meets all the conditions required to carry out this study, namely: (i) two long and comprehensive official datasets, i.e. the Portuguese Rural Fire Database (PRFD) and the National Mapping Burnt Areas (NMBA), respectively based on ground and satellite measurements; (ii) the two types of climate (Csb in the north and Csa in the south) that characterizes the Mediterranean basin regions most affected by the fires also divide the mainland Portuguese area; and, (iii) the national plan for the defence of forest against fires was approved a decade ago and it is now reasonable to assess its impacts. Results confirmed (1) the influence of the dataset's characteristics on the detected clusters, (2) the existence of two different fire regimes in the country promoted by the different types of climate, (3) the positive impacts of the fire prevention policy decisions and (4) the ability of the STPSS to correctly identify clusters, regarding their number, location, and space-time size in spite of eventual space and/or time splits of the datasets. Finally, the role of the weather on days when clustered fires were active was confirmed for the classes of small, medium and large fires. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Phanerozoic tectonic evolution of the Circum-North Pacific (United States)

    Nokleberg, Warren J.; Parfenov, Leonid M.; Monger, James W.H.; Norton, Ian O.; Khanchuk, Alexander I.; Stone, David B.; Scotese, Christopher R.; Scholl, David W.; Fujita, Kazuya


    The Phanerozoic tectonic evolution of the Circum-North Pacific is recorded mainly in the orogenic collages of the Circum-North Pacific mountain belts that separate the North Pacific from the eastern part of the North Asian Craton and the western part of the North American Craton. These collages consist of tectonostratigraphic terranes that are composed of fragments of igneous arcs, accretionary-wedge and subduction-zone complexes, passive continental margins, and cratons; they are overlapped by continental-margin-arc and sedimentary-basin assemblages. The geologic history of the terranes and overlap assemblages is highly complex because of postaccretionary dismemberment and translation during strike-slip faulting that occurred subparallel to continental margins.We analyze the complex tectonics of this region by the following steps. (1) We assign tectonic environments for the orogenic collages from regional compilation and synthesis of stratigraphic and faunal data. The types of tectonic environments include cratonal, passive continental margin, metamorphosed continental margin, continental-margin arc, island arc, oceanic crust, seamount, ophiolite, accretionary wedge, subduction zone, turbidite basin, and metamorphic. (2) We make correlations between terranes. (3) We group coeval terranes into a single tectonic origin, for example, a single island arc or subduction zone. (4) We group igneous-arc and subduction- zone terranes, which are interpreted as being tectonically linked, into coeval, curvilinear arc/subduction-zone complexes. (5) We interpret the original positions of terranes, using geologic, faunal, and paleomagnetic data. (6) We construct the paths of tectonic migration. Six processes overlapping in time were responsible for most of the complexities of the collage of terranes and overlap assemblages around the Circum-North Pacific, as follows. (1) During the Late Proterozoic, Late Devonian, and Early Carboniferous, major periods of rifting occurred along

  1. Timing of seasonal migration in mule deer: effects of climate, plant phenology, and life-history characteristics (United States)

    Monteith, Kevin L.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Stephenson, Thomas R.; Pierce, Beck M.; Conner, Mary M.; Klaver, Robert W.; Bowyer, R. Terry


    Phenological events of plants and animals are sensitive to climatic processes. Migration is a life-history event exhibited by most large herbivores living in seasonal environments, and is thought to occur in response to dynamics of forage and weather. Decisions regarding when to migrate, however, may be affected by differences in life-history characteristics of individuals. Long-term and intensive study of a population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA, allowed us to document patterns of migration during 11 years that encompassed a wide array of environmental conditions. We used two new techniques to properly account for interval-censored data and disentangle effects of broad-scale climate, local weather patterns, and plant phenology on seasonal patterns of migration, while incorporating effects of individual life-history characteristics. Timing of autumn migration varied substantially among individual deer, but was associated with the severity of winter weather, and in particular, snow depth and cold temperatures. Migratory responses to winter weather, however, were affected by age, nutritional condition, and summer residency of individual females. Old females and those in good nutritional condition risked encountering severe weather by delaying autumn migration, and were thus risk-prone with respect to the potential loss of foraging opportunities in deep snow compared with young females and those in poor nutritional condition. Females that summered on the west side of the crest of the Sierra Nevada delayed autumn migration relative to east-side females, which supports the influence of the local environment on timing of migration. In contrast, timing of spring migration was unrelated to individual life-history characteristics, was nearly twice as synchronous as autumn migration, differed among years, was related to the southern oscillation index, and was influenced by absolute snow depth and advancing phenology of plants

  2. Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models (United States)

    Osman, Marisol; Vera, C. S.


    This work presents an assessment of the predictability and skill of climate anomalies over South America. The study was made considering a multi-model ensemble of seasonal forecasts for surface air temperature, precipitation and regional circulation, from coupled global circulation models included in the Climate Historical Forecast Project. Predictability was evaluated through the estimation of the signal-to-total variance ratio while prediction skill was assessed computing anomaly correlation coefficients. Both indicators present over the continent higher values at the tropics than at the extratropics for both, surface air temperature and precipitation. Moreover, predictability and prediction skill for temperature are slightly higher in DJF than in JJA while for precipitation they exhibit similar levels in both seasons. The largest values of predictability and skill for both variables and seasons are found over northwestern South America while modest but still significant values for extratropical precipitation at southeastern South America and the extratropical Andes. The predictability levels in ENSO years of both variables are slightly higher, although with the same spatial distribution, than that obtained considering all years. Nevertheless, predictability at the tropics for both variables and seasons diminishes in both warm and cold ENSO years respect to that in all years. The latter can be attributed to changes in signal rather than in the noise. Predictability and prediction skill for low-level winds and upper-level zonal winds over South America was also assessed. Maximum levels of predictability for low-level winds were found were maximum mean values are observed, i.e. the regions associated with the equatorial trade winds, the midlatitudes westerlies and the South American Low-Level Jet. Predictability maxima for upper-level zonal winds locate where the subtropical jet peaks. Seasonal changes in wind predictability are observed that seem to be related to

  3. Measurements of Active Tectonic Deformation on the Guerrero Coast, Mexico (United States)

    Ramirez, T.; Cundy, A.; Carranza-Edwards, A.; Morales, E.; Kostoglodov, V.; Urrutia-Fucugauchi, J.


    The study of tectonic deformation rates using displaced shoreline features is relatively well-established, and has provided much useful information on seismic hazard. Such studies have frequently been complemented by analysis of the coastal sedimentary record, where past marine to terrestrial environmental changes (and vice versa) may be recorded by clear changes in stratigraphy. Studies of this type are particularly valuable for tectonically-active areas where the preservation of former shoreline features is poor, or where long-term subsidence has resulted in their erosion, drowning or burial. The specific objective of this study is to derive rates of tectonic deformation from geomorphic and stratigraphic studies of the Guerrero coastal area, and to examine the feasibility of this stratigraphic approach in the coastal lagoons of the Mexican Pacific coast, in the Guerrero gap. The Guerrero gap coastal area, where a major earthquake is expected to occur, parallels the Cocos plate subduction zone. Here convergence rates vary from 5.2 cm/yr to 5.8 cm/yr. The Guerrero gap has experienced several historical earthquakes, notably the 1911 (7.8 Ms). However, no large magnitude events since the 1911 earthquake and only a few Ms~6 events have occurred near the Guerrero gap edges. It is expected that a major interplate earthquake of estimated magnitude Mw=8.1 to 8.4 has a high probability to occur. Landforms within the Guerrero gap indicate that the coast is subsiding. A series of key indicators such as elongated islands reminiscent of ancient barriers, submerged barriers island, extensive marshy environments, increased depths in the lagoons, and submerged anthropogenic features (shell mounds), among others, suggest active tectonic subsidence of the coast. In contrast, the adjacent northwest area off the Guerrero gap exhibits landforms characteristic of tectonic uplift (marine terraces and uplifted beach ridges), indicating a different seismo-tectonic regime northwest of the

  4. Do cratons preserve evidence of stagnant lid tectonics?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derek Wyman


    Full Text Available Evidence for episodic crustal growth extending back to the Hadean has recently prompted a number of numerically based geodynamic models that incorporate cyclic changes from stagnant lid to mobile lid tectonics. A large part of the geologic record is missing for the times at which several of these cycles are inferred to have taken place. The cratons, however, are likely to retain important clues relating to similar cycles developed in the Mesoarchean and Neoarchean. Widespread acceptance of a form of plate tectonics by ∼3.2 Ga is not at odds with the sporadic occurrence of stagnant lid tectonics after this time. The concept of scale as applied to cratons, mantle plumes and Neoarchean volcanic arcs are likely to provide important constraints on future models of Earth's geodynamic evolution. The Superior Province will provide some of the most concrete evidence in this regard given that its constituent blocks may have been locked into a stagnant lid relatively soon after their formation and then assembled in the next global plate tectonic interval. Perceived complexities associated with inferred mantle plume – volcanic arc associations in the Superior Province and other cratons may be related to an over estimation of plume size. A possible stagnant lid episode between ∼2.9 Ga and ∼2.8 Ga is identified by previously unexplained lapses in volcanism on cratons, including the Kaapvaal, Yilgarn and Superior Province cratons. If real, then mantle dynamics associated with this episode likely eliminated any contemporaneous mantle plume incubation sites, which has important implications for widespread plumes developed at ∼2.7 Ga and favours a shallow mantle source in the transition zone. The Superior Province provides a uniquely preserved local proxy for this global event and could serve as the basis for detailed numerical models in the future.

  5. Climate regime shifts in paleoclimate time series from the Yucatán Peninsula: from the Preclassic to Classic period (United States)

    Polanco Martínez, Josue M.; Medina-Elizalde, Martin; Burns, Stephen J.; Jiang, Xiuyang; Shen, Chuan-Chou


    It has been widely accepted by the paleoclimate and archaeology communities that extreme climate events (especially droughts) and past climate change played an important role in the cultural changes that occurred in at least some parts of the Maya Lowlands, from the Pre-Classic (2000 BC to 250 AD) to Post-Classic periods (1000 to 1521 AD) [1, 2]. In particular, a large number of studies suggest that the decline of the Maya civilization in the Terminal Classic Period was greatly influenced by prolonged severe drought events that probably triggered significant societal disruptions [1, 3, 4, 5]. Going further on these issues, the aim of this work is to detect climate regime shifts in several paleoclimate time series from the Yucatán Peninsula (México) that have been used as rainfall proxies [3, 5, 6, 7]. In order to extract information from the paleoclimate data studied, we have used a change point method [8] as implemented in the R package strucchange, as well as the RAMFIT method [9]. The preliminary results show for all the records analysed a prominent regime shift between 400 to 200 BCE (from a noticeable increase to a remarkable fall in precipitation), which is strongest in the recently obtained stalagmite (Itzamna) delta18-O precipitation record [7]. References [1] Gunn, J. D., Matheny, R. T., Folan, W. J., 2002. Climate-change studies in the Maya area. Ancient Mesoamerica, 13(01), 79-84. [2] Yaeger, J., Hodell, D. A., 2008. The collapse of Maya civilization: assessing the interaction of culture, climate, and environment. El Niño, Catastrophism, and Culture Change in Ancient America, 197-251. [3] Hodell, D. A., Curtis, J. H., Brenner, M., 1995. Possible role of climate in the collapse of Classic Maya civilization. Nature, 375(6530), 391-394. [4] Aimers, J., Hodell, D., 2011. Societal collapse: Drought and the Maya. Nature 479(7371), 44-45 (2011). [5] Medina-Elizalde, M., Rohling, E. J., 2012. Collapse of Classic Maya civilization related to modest reduction

  6. Fission track dating of mesozoic sandstones and its tectonic significance in the Eastern Sichuan Basin, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shen Chuanbo; Mei Lianfu; Xu Sihuang


    To establish the tectonic evolution of the eastern Sichuan basin, apatite fission track dating and time-temperature thermal history modeling were carried to analyze on 11 samples collected from Jurassic sandstones. The results indicate that the cooling and exhumation process of the eastern Sichuan basin can be divided into three stages since Cretaceous, (1) a rapid cooling phase between ∼100 and ∼70 Ma, (2) following by a period of relative thermal stability phase between ∼70 and ∼15 Ma, (3) and then a new rapid cooling stage after ∼15 Ma. Two rapid cooling events imply that the eastern Sichuan basin once underwent two tectonic movements since Cretaceous. The first rapid cooling is associated with Mesozoic tectonic reactivation beginning at 100 Ma, which result in folds and faults of the eastern Sichuan basin. The second tectonic movement occurred at 15 Ma, which is related to denudation by compression resulting from the eastward growth of Tibetan plateau uplift.

  7. Tectonic control on denudation rates in the central Bolivian Andes (United States)

    Zeilinger, Gerold; Kober, Florian; Hippe, Kristina; Lendzioch, Theodora; Grischott, Reto; Pillco Zolá, Ramiro; Christl, Markus


    the SA denudation rates have a significantly higher mean of 850 mm/kyr. Geomorphic (channel steepness index, hypsometric index, specific stream power, drainage density) or climatic (e.g. satellite derived precipitation) parameters do not exert a primary control on these higher denudation rates. However, the higher rates are observed mainly in Cretaceous to Neogene conglomerates and sandstones. They coincide spatially with the SA, where the rates are generally 5 - 10 times higher than in the EC and IAZ. This pattern overlaps with the observation of active deformation in the SA that is also supported by recent shallow seismicity clusters. We argue that the pattern of denudation rates in the Rio Grande is mainly tectonically controlled. The lacking correlation between geomorphic parameters and our denudation rates is potentially caused by the size of the sampled catchments where simultaneous surface processes results in an overlapping shaping of the surface and thus prevent clear morphometric signals. The influence of active deformation on geomorphic parameters in the Bolivian Andes is subject of further studies.

  8. Impacts of Climate Change on the Timing of the Production Season of Maple Syrup in Eastern Canada (United States)

    Côté, Benoît; Logan, Travis; Power, Hugues; Charron, Isabelle; Duchesne, Louis


    Maple syrup production is an important economic activity in north-eastern North-America. The beginning and length of the production season is linked to daily variation in temperature. There are increasing concerns about the potential impact of climatic change on this industry. Here, we used weekly data of syrup yield for the 1999–2011 period from 121 maple stands in 11 regions of Québec (Canada) to predict how the period of production may be impacted by climate warming. The date at which the production begins is highly variable between years with an average range of 36 days among the regions. However, the average start date for a given region, which ranged from Julian day 65 to 83, was highly predictable (r2 = 0.88) using the average temperature from January to April (TJ-A). A logistic model predicting the weekly presence or absence of production was also developed. Using the inputs of 77 future climate scenarios issued from global models, projections of future production timing were made based on average TJ-A and on the logistic model. The projections of both approaches were in very good agreement and suggest that the sap season will be displaced to occur 15–19 days earlier on average in the 2080–2100 period. The data also show that the displacement in time will not be accompanied by a greater between years variability in the beginning of the season. However, in the southern part of Québec, very short periods of syrup production due to unfavourable conditions in the spring will occur more frequently in the future although their absolute frequencies will remain low. PMID:26682889

  9. Climate Response to the Increase in Tropospheric Ozone since Preindustrial Times: A Comparison between Ozone and Equivalent CO2 Forcings (United States)

    Mickley L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Field, B. D.; Rind, D.


    We examine the characteristics of the climate response to anthropogenic changes in tropospheric ozone. Using a general circulation model, we have carried out a pair of equilibrium climate simulations with realistic present-day and preindustrial ozone distributions. We find that the instantaneous radiative forcing of 0.49 W m(sup -2) due to the increase in tropospheric ozone since preindustrial times results in an increase in global mean surface temperature of 0.28 C. The increase is nearly 0.4 C in the Northern Hemisphere and about 0.2 C in the Southern Hemisphere. The largest increases (greater than 0.8 C) are downwind of Europe and Asia and over the North American interior in summer. In the lower stratosphere, global mean temperatures decrease by about 0.2 C due to the diminished upward flux of radiation at 9.6 micrometers. The largest stratospheric cooling, up to 1.0 C, occurs over high northern latitudes in winter, with possibly important implications for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds. To identify the characteristics of climate forcing unique to tropospheric ozone, we have conducted two additional climate equilibrium simulations: one in which preindustrial tropospheric ozone concentrations were increased everywhere by 18 ppb, producing the same global radiative forcing as present-day ozone but without the heterogeneity; and one in which CO2 was decreased by 25 ppm relative to present day, with ozone at present-day values, to again produce the same global radiative forcing but with the spectral signature of CO2 rather than ozone. In the first simulation (uniform increase of ozone), the global mean surface temperature increases by 0.25 C, with an interhemispheric difference of only 0.03 C, as compared with nearly 0.2 C for the heterogeneous ozone increase. In the second simulation (equivalent CO2), the global mean surface temperature increases by 0.36 C, 30% higher than the increase from tropospheric ozone. The stronger surface warming from CO2 is

  10. Real-time monitoring of smallholder farmer responses to intra-seasonal climate variability in central Kenya (United States)

    Krell, N.; Evans, T. P.; Estes, L. D.; Caylor, K. K.


    While international metrics of food security and water availability are generated as spatial averages at the regional to national levels, climate variability impacts are differentially felt at the household level. This project investigated scales of variability of climate impacts on smallholder farmers using social and environmental data in central Kenya. Using sub-daily real-time environmental measurements to monitor smallholder agriculture, we investigated how changes in seasonal precipitation affected food security around Laikipia county from September 2015 to present. We also conducted SMS-based surveys of over 700 farmers to understand farmers' decision-making within the growing season. Our results highlight field-scale heterogeneity in biophysical and social factors governing crop yields using locally sensed real-time environmental data and weekly farmer-reported information about planting, harvesting, irrigation, and crop yields. Our preliminary results show relationships between changes in seasonal precipitation, NDVI, and soil moisture related to crop yields and decision-making at several scales. These datasets present a unique opportunity to collect highly spatially and temporally resolved information from data-poor regions at the household level.

  11. Tectonic control on fluvial styles: the Balfour Formation of the Karoo Basin, South Africa (United States)

    Catuneanu, Octavian; Elango, Henry N.


    The Balfour Formation represents a fully fluvial succession of late Late Permian-earliest Triassic age which accumulated in the foredeep of the Karoo Basin during the overfilled phase of the foreland system. The lack of a coeval marine environment within the limits of the preserved Karoo Basin provides an opportunity to study the stratigraphic cyclicity developed during a time when accommodation was solely controlled by tectonics. The Balfour stratigraphy is composed of a succession of six third-order fluvial depositional sequences separated by subaerial unconformities. They formed in isolation from eustatic influences, with a timing controlled by orogenic cycles of loading and unloading. Sediment accumulation took place during stages of flexural subsidence, whereas the bounding surfaces are related to stages of isostatic uplift. The vertical profile of all sequences displays an overall fining-upward trend related to the gradual decrease in topographic slope during orogenic loading. At the same time, an upward change in fluvial styles can be observed within each sequence, from initial higher to final lower energy systems. The actual fluvial styles in each location depend on paleoslope gradients and the position of the stratigraphic section relative to the orogenic front. Proximal sequences show transitions from braided to meandering systems, whereas more distal sequences show changes from sand-bed to fine-grained meandering systems. The average duration of the Balfour stratigraphic cycles was 0.66 My, i.e. six cycles during 4 My. No climatic fluctuations are recorded during this time, with the long-term climatic background represented by temperate to humid conditions.

  12. Seismicity, structure and tectonics in the Arctic region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masaki Kanao


    Full Text Available The “Arctic” region, where the North Pole occupies the center of the Arctic Ocean, has been affecting the environmental variation of the Earth from geological time to the present. However, the seismic activities in the area are not adequately monitored. Therefore, by conducting long term monitoring of seismic phenomenon as sustainable parameters, our understanding of both the tectonic evolution of the Earth and the dynamic interaction between the cryosphere and geosphere in surface layers of the Earth will increase. In this paper, the association of the seismicity and structure of the Arctic region, particularly focused on Eurasian continent and surrounding oceans, and its relationship with regional evolution during the Earth's history is studied. The target areas cover representative tectonic provinces in the Eurasian Arctic, such as the wide area of Siberia, Baikal Rift Zone, Far East Russia, Arctic Ocean together with Greenland and Northern Canada. Based on discussion including characteristics of seismicity, heterogeneous structure of the crust and upper mantle, tectonic history and recent dynamic features of the Earth's surface in the Arctic are summarized.

  13. Time scales and ratios of climate forcing due to thermal versus carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaochun; Caldeira, Ken


    The Earth warms both when fossil fuel carbon is oxidized to carbon dioxide and when greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide inhibits longwave radiation from escaping to space. Various important time scales and ratios comparing these two climate forcings have not previously been quantified. For example, the global and time-integrated radiative forcing from burning a fossil fuel exceeds the heat released upon combustion within 2 months. Over the long lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere, the cumulative CO2-radiative forcing exceeds the amount of energy released upon combustion by a factor >100,000. For a new power plant, the radiative forcing from the accumulation of released CO2 exceeds the direct thermal emissions in less than half a year. Furthermore, we show that the energy released from the combustion of fossil fuels is now about 1.71% of the radiative forcing from CO2 that has accumulated in the atmosphere as a consequence of historical fossil fuel combustion.

  14. Time to quit my day job? My not-so-quiet crusade to become the funniest climate scientist at NASA (United States)

    Schmidt, G. A.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Willis, J. K.


    The first time I showed a funny slide at AGU, it bombed. Badly. "What causes global warming?" I asked an audience of 100 learned colleagues. I pushed the space bar. Up popped a photo-shopped picture of a gigantic Al Gore breathing fire on the Earth…. Silence. Complete silence. Even the crickets were judging me. Since that time, I've completed an entire curriculum at a world-renowned school of funny (The Conservatory Program at Second City, Hollywood), written sketch shows, told funny stories, acted in short and full-length feature films, and practiced. Mostly practiced. A lot. So, did I get better at making global warming funny? Come find out. In this presentation I will tell some jokes, talk about my experience trying to use comedy in public communications, and show at least one video that educates people about climate change, and is also funny. At least—I think it's funny.

  15. Mid- to Late Holocene Climate Variability in South-Central Chile on Millennial-to- Centennial Time Scales: Evidence From Sediments of the Coastal Lakes Lanalhue and Lleu Lleu (38°S) (United States)

    Stefer, S.; Arz, H. W.; Lamy, F.; Kaiser, J.; Haug, G. H.


    The Holocene climate variability in south-central Chile is most notably regulated by changes in the latitudinal position and in the intensity of the Southern Westerly Winds (SWW). While a more southward position of the SWW during the early Holocene implied dry and warm conditions, a northward shift of the wind belt led to a general cooling trend and a parallel increase in precipitation towards the late Holocene. Here, we present new data from a multi-proxy study of Holocene lake sediments from Lago Lanalhue and Lago Lleu Lleu (38°S), including sedimentology, radiocarbon dating, mineralogy and geochemistry. Both of these coastal lakes developed in ancient river valleys that once drained to the Pacific Ocean. Due to localized tectonic uplift, the former rivers were dammed by rising sills during the early Holocene. Ever since, lacustrine sediments accumulated in the formed lake basins, preserving continuous records of Holocene climate variability. The sediment records of Lago Lanalhue and Lago Lleu Lleu indicate a long-term climatic trend with a significant shift from more arid conditions during the middle Holocene (8000 to 4200 cal yr BP) to more humid conditions during the late Holocene (4200 cal yr BP to present). In both lakes, the transition out of the mid-Holocene period is marked by a gradual increase in the terrigenous sediment supply. Coevally, the sediments of Lago Lanalhue record a decline in diatom occurrence, pointing to a decrease in lake productivity. On the other hand, numerous intercalated clastic layers characterize the late Holocene sediments in Lago Lleu Lleu, most likely suggesting an increase in the El Nino activity. During the last 2000 years, pronounced variations in the terrigenous sediment input suggest important hydrological changes also on the centennial time-scale. The sediment supply to the lakes was low during the Medieval Warm Period (1200 to 800 cal yr BP), indicating relatively dry conditions. In contrast, wet conditions prevailed

  16. Climate change leads to differential shifts in the timing of annual cycle stages in a migratory bird. (United States)

    Tomotani, Barbara M; van der Jeugd, Henk; Gienapp, Phillip; de la Hera, Iván; Pilzecker, Jos; Teichmann, Corry; Visser, Marcel E


    Shifts in reproductive phenology due to climate change have been well documented in many species but how, within the same species, other annual cycle stages (e.g. moult, migration) shift relative to the timing of breeding has rarely been studied. When stages shift at different rates, the interval between stages may change resulting in overlaps, and as each stage is energetically demanding, these overlaps may have negative fitness consequences. We used long-term data of a population of European pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) to investigate phenological shifts in three annual cycle stages: spring migration (arrival dates), breeding (egg-laying and hatching dates) and the onset of postbreeding moult. We found different advancements in the timing of breeding compared with moult (moult advances faster) and no advancement in arrival dates. To understand these differential shifts, we explored which temperatures best explain the year-to-year variation in the timing of these stages, and show that they respond differently to temperature increases in the Netherlands, causing the intervals between arrival and breeding and between breeding and moult to decrease. Next, we tested the fitness consequences of these shortened intervals. We found no effect on clutch size, but the probability of a fledged chick to recruit increased with a shorter arrival-breeding interval (earlier breeding). Finally, mark-recapture analyses did not detect an effect of shortened intervals on adult survival. Our results suggest that the advancement of breeding allows more time for fledgling development, increasing their probability to recruit. This may incur costs to other parts of the annual cycle, but, despite the shorter intervals, there was no effect on adult survival. Our results show that to fully understand the consequences of climate change, it is necessary to look carefully at different annual cycle stages, especially for organisms with complex cycles, such as migratory birds. © 2017

  17. A trading-space-for-time approach to probabilistic continuous streamflow predictions in a changing climate – accounting for changing watershed behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Singh


    Full Text Available Projecting how future climatic change might impact streamflow is an important challenge for hydrologic science. The common approach to solve this problem is by forcing a hydrologic model, calibrated on historical data or using a priori parameter estimates, with future scenarios of precipitation and temperature. However, several recent studies suggest that the climatic regime of the calibration period is reflected in the resulting parameter estimates and model performance can be negatively impacted if the climate for which projections are made is significantly different from that during calibration. So how can we calibrate a hydrologic model for historically unobserved climatic conditions? To address this issue, we propose a new trading-space-for-time framework that utilizes the similarity between the predictions under change (PUC and predictions in ungauged basins (PUB problems. In this new framework we first regionalize climate dependent streamflow characteristics using 394 US watersheds. We then assume that this spatial relationship between climate and streamflow characteristics is similar to the one we would observe between climate and streamflow over long time periods at a single location. This assumption is what we refer to as trading-space-for-time. Therefore, we change the limits for extrapolation to future climatic situations from the restricted locally observed historical variability to the variability observed across all watersheds used to derive the regression relationships. A typical watershed model is subsequently calibrated (conditioned on the predicted signatures for any future climate scenario to account for the impact of climate on model parameters within a Bayesian framework. As a result, we can obtain ensemble predictions of continuous streamflow at both gauged and ungauged locations. The new method is tested in five US watersheds located in historically different climates using synthetic climate scenarios generated by

  18. A stitch in time saves nine. The costs of postponing action in climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinshamn, Stein Ivar; Kvamsdal, Sturla F.; Sandal, Leif K.


    The main purpose of this report is to investigate the effects of postponing implementation of a carbon tax assuming that externalities associated with climate change and global warming is real. Failing to internalize these externalities will only lead to a suboptimal situation. The model applied to investigate these externalities starts with the basic relationships, namely supply and demand for fossil fuel, and an added damage term that accounts for the externality. The objective is then to maximize the sum of consumers' and producers' surplus adjusted for the externality. This must be done subject to the dynamic constraint derived from emissions of carbon associated with extraction and consumption of fossil fuel and the natural assimilation of carbon in the atmosphere. The model is solved as a closed loop feedback policy. First the optimal emission path is calculated, and then the corresponding tax path is found. As the externality dealt with here is a pure stock externality it turns out that the optimal tax is equal to the shadow cost of the pollutant. The dynamic equation for assimilation, or natural decay, of carbon is specified using a fairly sophisticated method, namely the ensemble Kalman filter. Given the relative simplicity of the model with only one type of production and one type of pollutant, this method is supposed to give a best possible estimate of the parameters in the assimilation function.The main message in this report is that it may possibly be very expensive to postpone implementation of a carbon tax as the tax rate may have to increase by up to 30 per cent and more for each year implementation is postponed in order to recover optimality in the most pessimistic cases. In the more optimistic cases an increase of down to 0.5 per cent per year may be sufficient.(eb)

  19. Potential Biases in the Estimation of the Delay Time in Multivariate Time Series: An application to Climate Data and Functional Networks (United States)

    Martin, E.; Davidsen, J.; Complexity Science Group


    Measuring cross-correlations is of vital importance to science in general and is a key ingredient in functional networks, which are being widely applied to geophysical systems. A functional network is a collection of nodes (e.g. global positions), and two nodes are connected by a link if their joint behaviour satisfies some criteria. In most cases each node is associated with a time series, and a link is created between two nodes if their time series have a cross-correlation that is deemed significant. However, the spatial distance between nodes and the resolution of the time series, Δ t, can mean that it is unphysical for a signal to propagate from one node to another within a time Δ t. One way to account for this is to measure the cross-correlation at a number of different time lags and use the time delay for which it is a maximum. Here we show that this method is biased for a large class of time series that are common to geophysical systems, namely long-range correlated time series. These are time series which show persistence, for example, a warm day is more likely to be followed by another warm day than a cold one. If one randomly generates two series which each have long-range correlations, the naive assumption is that the maximum cross-correlation between them is equally likely to be found at every time lag. However, the cross-correlation between the series is more likely to be a maximum at the largest and smallest (in this work we allow time lags to be negative) time lags measured. This is a systematic effect which can, and should, be corrected for when judging if a correlation is significant. Whereas the traditional null model is that each time lag is equally likely to give the maximum cross-correlation, our work provides a more correct null model for this class of systems. We apply this to climate data, as well as go on to discuss other potential issues when measuring cross-correlations in this context.

  20. The impact of Quaternary climate oscillations on divergence times and historical population sizes in Thylamys opossums from the Andes. (United States)

    Giarla, Thomas C; Jansa, Sharon A


    Climate oscillations during the Quaternary altered the distributions of terrestrial animals at a global scale. In mountainous regions, temperature fluctuations may have led to shifts in range size and population size as species tracked their shifting habitats upslope or downslope. This creates the potential for both allopatric speciation and population size fluctuations, as species are either constrained to smaller patches of habitat at higher elevations or able to expand into broader areas at higher latitudes. We considered the impact of climate oscillations on three pairs of marsupial species from the Andes (Thylamys opossums) by inferring divergence times and demographic changes. We compare four different divergence dating approaches, using anywhere from one to 26 loci. Each pair comprises a northern (tropical) lineage and a southern (subtropical to temperate) lineage. We predicted that divergences would have occurred during the last interglacial (LIG) period approximately 125 000 years ago and that population sizes for northern and southern lineages would either contract or expand, respectively. Our results suggest that all three north-south pairs diverged in the late Pleistocene during or slightly after the LIG. The three northern lineages showed no signs of population expansion, whereas two southern lineages exhibited dramatic, recent expansions. We attribute the difference in responses between tropical and subtropical lineages to the availability of 'montane-like' habitats at lower elevations in regions at higher latitudes. We conclude that climate oscillations of the late Quaternary had a powerful impact on the evolutionary history of some of these species, both promoting speciation and leading to significant population size shifts. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. An assessment of long-term overtopping risk and optimal termination time of dam under climate change. (United States)

    Lee, Bau-Shian; You, Gene Jiing-Yun


    Reservoir management faces a wide range of new challenges resulting from the impact of climate change. One set of challenges arises from the non-stationary nature of hydrological conditions. Another crucial issue is watershed sedimentation, which can significantly influence the sustainability and safety of reservoirs. To address these concerns, this study developed a framework for the management of reservoir risk. An analytical conceptual model coupling physical governing relationships and economic tools was proposed, which was then applied to the Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan. We adopted a statistical representation of future hydrologic conditions with the assumption of time-variant moments and focused on evaluating the impact of an increase in the frequency of extreme hydrological events caused by climate change and used a stochastic approach to quantify the risk factors. Our results confirm that this approach can be used to identify reservoir-related risks and generate appropriate options for strategy and policy. We determined that the major source of risk is the hydrological conditions, especially the extreme events. More severe intra-annual climatic change is much more dominant in the risk compared to inter-year trends. The influence of reservoir characteristics on risk is associated mainly with the availability of flood control capacity, but limited due to the limitation of its volume and potential to regulate the flow. Engineering may provide an option for mitigating the risk, but integrated, watershed-level approaches, such as providing systematic detention or land use management, are better suited to reducing the storm peak from a long-term perspective. With a critical increase in the risk of overtopping, a high probability of dam failure and corresponding losses may precipitate the need to retire or remove the facility. However, because the benefits and costs are both huge, the decision may be biased by a conservative attitude. The outcome of small

  2. Identification of tectonic deformations on the south polar surface of the moon (United States)

    Mukherjee, Saumitra; Singh, Priyadarshini


    Recent extensional and contractional tectonic features present globally over the lunar surface have been studied to infer lunar crustal tectonism. Investigation of indicators of recent crustal tectonics, such as fault lines, thrust fault scarps, and dislocation of debris along the identified fault planes, primarily using data from the miniature-synthetic aperture radar (mini-SAR) aboard CHANDRAYAAN-1 mission and Narrow angle camera (NAC) images, are the focus of this study. Spatial orientation of these tectonic features helps to elucidate the change in the interior geological dynamics of any planetary body with time. The ability of microwave sensors to penetrate the lunar regolith, along with application of m-χ decomposition method on Mini-SAR data has been used to reveal unique features indicative of hidden tectonics. The m-χ decomposition derived radar images expose hidden lineaments and lobate scarps present within shadowed crater floors as well as over the illuminated regions of the lunar surface. The area around and within Cabeus B crater in the South Polar Region contains lobate scarps, hidden lineaments and debris avalanches (associated with the identified lineaments) indicative of relatively recent crustal tectonism.

  3. The imprint of climate and geology on the residence times of groundwater (United States)

    Maxwell, Reed M.; Condon, Laura E.; Kollet, Stefan J.; Maher, Kate; Haggerty, Roy; Forrester, Mary Michael


    Surface and subsurface flow dynamics govern residence time or water age until discharge, which is a key metric of storage and water availability for human use and ecosystem function. Although observations in small catchments have shown a fractal distribution of ages, residence times are difficult to directly quantify or measure in large basins. Here we use a simulation of major watersheds across North America to compute distributions of residence times. This simulation results in peak ages from 1.5 to 10.5 years, in agreement with isotopic observations from bomb-derived radioisotopes, and a wide range of residence times—from 0.1 to 10,000 years. This simulation suggests that peak residence times are controlled by the mean hydraulic conductivity, a function of the prevailing geology. The shape of the residence time distribution is dependent on aridity, which in turn determines water table depth and the frequency of shorter flow paths. These model results underscore the need for additional studies to characterize water ages in larger systems.

  4. Development of a Photovoltaic Array Emulator System in Real Time Considering Climatic Conditions Variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilo E. Ardila-Franco


    Full Text Available This paper presents the development of an emulator that has the ability to replicate, in real time, the behavior of photovoltaic panels (PV arrays considering different conditions of irradiation and temperature for each one. The emulator consists of a data acquisition card, a programmable source and a computer. It is based on the bypass diode model that provides a better approximation to real operating conditions. The solution is computed by a simplified equation that uses the Lambert W function, which reduces the computation time. After that, it generates a solution table of values of current as a function of voltage on terminals, temperature and irradiation. Real-time emulation is performed by means of a search algorithm in the solutions table of the closest value to the voltage imposed on the terminals.

  5. Application of DSSAT models for an agronomic adaptation strategy under climate change in Southern of Italy: optimum sowing and transplanting time for winter durum wheat and tomato

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domenico Ventrella


    Full Text Available Many climate change studies have been carried out in different parts of the world to assess climate change vulnerability and adaptation capacity of agricultural crops for determined environments characterized from climatic, pedological and agronomical point of view. The objective of this study was to analyse the productive response of winter durum wheat and tomato to climate change and sowing/transplanting time in one of most productive areas of Italy (i.e. Capitanata, Puglia, using CERES-Wheat and CROPGRO cropping system models. Three climatic datasets were used: i a single dataset (50 km x 50 km provided by the JRC European centre for the period 1975-2005; two datasets from HadCM3 for the IPCC A2 GHG scenario for time slices with +2°C (centred over 2030-2060 and +5°C (centred over 2070-2099, respectively. All three datasets were used to generate synthetic climate series using a weather simulator (model LARS-WG. No negative yield effects of climate change were observed for winter durum wheat with delayed sowing (from 330 to 345 DOY increasing the average dry matter grain yield under forecasted scenarios. Instead, the warmer temperatures were primarily shown to accelerate the phenology, resulting in decreased yield for tomato under the + 5°C future climate scenario. In general, under global temperature increase by 5°C, early transplanting times could minimize the negative impact of climate change on crop productivity but the intensity of this effect was not sufficient to restore the current production levels of tomato cultivated in southern Italy.

  6. Tectonic control of erosion in the southern Central Andes (United States)

    Val, Pedro; Venerdini, Agostina L.; Ouimet, William; Alvarado, Patricia; Hoke, Gregory D.


    Landscape evolution modeling and global compilations of exhumation data indicate that a wetter climate, mainly through orographic rainfall, can govern the spatial distribution of erosion rates and crustal strain across an orogenic wedge. However, detecting this link is not straightforward since these relationships can be modulated by tectonic forcing and/or obscured by heavy-tailed frequencies of catchment discharge. This study combines new and published along-strike average rates of catchment erosion constrained by 10Be and river-gauge data in the Central Andes between 28°S and 36°S. These data reveal a nearly identical latitudinal pattern in erosion rates on both sides of the range, reaching a maximum of 0.27 mm/a near 34°S. Collectively, data on topographic and fluvial relief, variability of rainfall and discharge, and crustal seismicity suggest that the along-strike pattern of erosion rates in the southern Central Andes is largely independent of climate, but closely relates to the N-S distribution of shallow crustal seismicity and diachronous surface uplift. The consistently high erosion rates on either side of the orogen near 34°S imply that climate plays a secondary role in the mass flux through an orogenic wedge where the perturbation to base level is similar on both sides.

  7. Analytical techniques for extracting Quaternary climate data from speleothems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whittaker, T.


    Speleothems are deposits formed in caves as a result of chemical precipitation from groundwater flowing over or dripping onto a surface. In most limestone caves the precipitated mineral is calcite, although aragonite forms are also common. Over time, and with continued chemical precipitation, each form 'grows' layer by layer. Therefore, similar to tree rings (although speleothem layers may not be annually resolved), speleothems provide an archive of information about past climate. In addition they may provide further information on vegetation changes, hydrology, sea level, water-rock interaction, landscape evolution, tectonics and human action. For palaeoclimate studies the three most useful speleothem forms are stalagmites, stalactites (including Straws) and flowstones. (author). 23 refs

  8. Atmospheric and Oceanic Response to Southern Ocean Deep Convection Oscillations on Decadal to Centennial Time Scales in Climate Models (United States)

    Martin, T.; Reintges, A.; Park, W.; Latif, M.


    Many current coupled global climate models simulate open ocean deep convection in the Southern Ocean as a recurring event with time scales ranging from a few years to centennial (de Lavergne et al., 2014, Nat. Clim. Ch.). The only observation of such event, however, was the occurrence of the Weddell Polynya in the mid-1970s, an open water area of 350 000 km2 within the Antarctic sea ice in three consecutive winters. Both the wide range of modeled frequency of occurrence and the absence of deep convection in the Weddell Sea highlights the lack of understanding concerning the phenomenon. Nevertheless, simulations indicate that atmospheric and oceanic responses to the cessation of deep convection in the Southern Ocean include a strengthening of the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean (increasing SAM index) and a reduction in the export of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), potentially masking the regional effects of global warming (Latif et al., 2013, J. Clim.; Martin et al., 2014, Deep Sea Res. II). It is thus of great importance to enhance our understanding of Southern Ocean deep convection and clarify the associated time scales. In two multi-millennial simulations with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM, ECHAM5 T31 atmosphere & NEMO-LIM2 ~2˚ ocean) we showed that the deep convection is driven by strong oceanic warming at mid-depth periodically overriding the stabilizing effects of precipitation and ice melt (Martin et al., 2013, Clim. Dyn.). Sea ice thickness also affects location and duration of the deep convection. A new control simulation, in which, amongst others, the atmosphere grid resolution is changed to T42 (~2.8˚), yields a faster deep convection flip-flop with a period of 80-100 years and a weaker but still significant global climate response similar to CMIP5 simulations. While model physics seem to affect the time scale and intensity of the phenomenon, the driving mechanism is a rather robust feature. Finally, we compare the atmospheric and

  9. Summary of the stretching tectonics research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Dagan


    The rise of stretching tectonics is established on the basis of recent structural geology theory, the establishment of metamorphic nucleus complex structural model on one hand plays an important promoting art to the development of stretching structure, on the other hand, it needs constant supplement and perfection in practice. Metamorphic nucleus complex is the carrier of comparatively deep geological information in vertical section of the crust and has wide distribution in the era of south China. Evidently, it can be taken as the 'key' to understanding the deep and studying the basement, Strengthening the study will play the important promoting role to the deep prospecting. The study of stretching tectonics is not only limited within the range of structure and metamorphism, but combine with the studies of sedimentation, magmatism, metamorphism and mineralization, thus form a new field of tectonic geology of self-developing system

  10. Amazonia through time: Andean uplift, climate change, landscape evolution and biodiversity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoorn, C.; Wesselingh, F.P.; Steege, ter H.; Bermudez, M.A.; Mora, A.; Sevink, J.; Sanmartín, I.; Sanchez-Meseguer, A.; Anderson, C.L.; Figueiredo, J.P.; Jaramillo, C.; Riff, D.; Negri, F.R.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Lundberg, J.; Stadler, T.; Särkinen, T.; Antonelli, A.


    The Amazonian rainforest is arguably the most species-rich terrestrial ecosystem in the world, yet the timing of the origin and volutionary causes of this diversity are a matter of debate. We review the geologic and phylogenetic evidence from Amazonia and compare it with uplift records from the

  11. Time scale bias in erosion rates of glaciated landscapes. (United States)

    Ganti, Vamsi; von Hagke, Christoph; Scherler, Dirk; Lamb, Michael P; Fischer, Woodward W; Avouac, Jean-Philippe


    Deciphering erosion rates over geologic time is fundamental for understanding the interplay between climate, tectonic, and erosional processes. Existing techniques integrate erosion over different time scales, and direct comparison of such rates is routinely done in earth science. On the basis of a global compilation, we show that erosion rate estimates in glaciated landscapes may be affected by a systematic averaging bias that produces higher estimated erosion rates toward the present, which do not reflect straightforward changes in erosion rates through time. This trend can result from a heavy-tailed distribution of erosional hiatuses (that is, time periods where no or relatively slow erosion occurs). We argue that such a distribution can result from the intermittency of erosional processes in glaciated landscapes that are tightly coupled to climate variability from decadal to millennial time scales. In contrast, we find no evidence for a time scale bias in spatially averaged erosion rates of landscapes dominated by river incision. We discuss the implications of our findings in the context of the proposed coupling between climate and tectonics, and interpreting erosion rate estimates with different averaging time scales through geologic time.

  12. The tectonic significance of the Cabo Frio Tectonic Domain in the SE Brazilian margin: a Paleoproterozoic through Cretaceous saga of a reworked continental margin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata da Silva Schmitt

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The Cabo Frio Tectonic Domain is composed of a Paleoproterozoic basement tectonically interleaved with Neoproterozoic supracrustal rocks (Buzios-Palmital successions. It is in contact with the Neoproterozoic-Cambrian Ribeira Orogen along the SE Brazilian coast. The basement was part of at least three continental margins: (a 1.97 Ga; (b 0.59 - 0.53 Ga; (c 0.14 Ga to today. It consists of continental magmatic arc rocks of 1.99 to 1.94 Ga. Zircon cores show a 2.5 - 2.6 Ga inheritance from the ancient margin of the Congo Craton. During the Ediacaran, this domain was thinned and intruded by tholeiitic mafic dykes during the development of an oceanic basin at ca. 0.59 Ma. After the tectonic inversion, these basin deposits reached high P-T metamorphic conditions, by subduction of the oceanic lithosphere, and were later exhumed as nappes over the basement. The Cabo Frio Tectonic Domain collided with the arc domain of the Ribeira Orogen at ca. 0.54 Ga. It is not an exotic block, but the eastern transition between this orogen and the Congo Craton. Almost 400 m.y. later, the South Atlantic rift zone followed roughly this suture, not coincidently. It shows how the Cabo Frio Tectonic Domain was reactivated as a continental margin in successive extensional and convergent events through geological time.

  13. Timing of millennial-scale climate change in Antarctica and Greenland during the last glacial period

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blunier, T; Brook, E J


    A precise relative chronology for Greenland and West Antarctic paleotemperature is extended to 90,000 years ago, based on correlation of atmospheric methane records from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 and Byrd ice cores. Over this period, the onset of seven major millennial-scale warmings in A....... This pattern provides further evidence for the operation of a "bipolar see-saw" in air temperatures and an oceanic teleconnection between the hemispheres on millennial time scales....

  14. International Reference Ionosphere 2016: From ionospheric climate to real-time weather predictions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bilitza, D.; Altadill, D.; Truhlík, Vladimír; Shubin, V.; Galkin, I.; Reinisch, B.; Huang, X.


    Roč. 15, č. 2 (2017), s. 418-429 ISSN 1539-4956 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GC15-07281J Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : hmF2 * indices * ion composition * IRI-2016 * IRTAM * Real-Time IRI Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

  15. Reducing risk where tectonic plates collide (United States)

    Gomberg, Joan S.; Ludwig, Kristin A.


    Most of the world’s earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, and volcanic eruptions are caused by the continuous motions of the many tectonic plates that make up the Earth’s outer shell. The most powerful of these natural hazards occur in subduction zones, where two plates collide and one is thrust beneath another. The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) “Reducing Risk Where Tectonic Plates Collide—A USGS Plan to Advance Subduction Zone Science” is a blueprint for building the crucial scientific foundation needed to inform the policies and practices that can make our Nation more resilient to subduction zone-related hazards.

  16. Assessments of Drought Impacts on Vegetation in China with the Optimal Time Scales of the Climatic Drought Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Li


    Full Text Available Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity due to global warming, and its impacts on vegetation are typically extensively evaluated with climatic drought indices, such as multi-scalar Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI. We analyzed the covariation between the SPEIs of various time scales and the anomalies of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, from which the vegetation type-related optimal time scales were retrieved. The results indicated that the optimal time scales of needle-leaved forest, broadleaf forest and shrubland were between 10 and 12 months, which were considerably longer than the grassland, meadow and cultivated vegetation ones (2 to 4 months. When the optimal vegetation type-related time scales were used, the SPEI could better reflect the vegetation’s responses to water conditions, with the correlation coefficients between SPEIs and NDVI anomalies increased by 5.88% to 28.4%. We investigated the spatio-temporal characteristics of drought and quantified the different responses of vegetation growth to drought during the growing season (April–October. The results revealed that the frequency of drought has increased in the 21st century with the drying trend occurring in most of China. These results are useful for ecological assessments and adapting management steps to mitigate the impact of drought on vegetation. They are helpful to employ water resources more efficiently and reduce potential damage to human health caused by water shortages.

  17. The timing of biological carbon sequestration and carbon abatement in the energy sector under optimal strategies against climate risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gitz, V.; Hourcade, J.Ch.; Ciais, Ph.


    This paper addresses the timing of the use of biological carbon sequestration and its capacity to alleviate the carbon constraint on the energy sector. We constructed a stochastic optimal control model balancing the costs of fossil emission abatement, the opportunity costs of lands allocated to afforestation, and the costs of uncertain climate damages. We show that a minor part of the sequestration potential should start immediately as a 'brake', slowing down both the rate of growth of concentrations and the rate of abatement in the energy sector. thus increasing the option value of the emission trajectories. But, most of the potential is put in reserve to be used as a 'safety valve' after the resolution of uncertainty, if a higher and faster decarbonization is required: sequestration cuts off the peaks of costs of fossil abatement and postpones the pivoting of the energy system by up to two decades. (authors)

  18. Soil moisture response to experimentally altered snowmelt timing is mediated by soil, vegetation, and regional climate patterns (United States)

    Conner, Lafe G; Gill, Richard A.; Belnap, Jayne


    Soil moisture in seasonally snow-covered environments fluctuates seasonally between wet and dry states. Climate warming is advancing the onset of spring snowmelt and may lengthen the summer-dry state and ultimately cause drier soil conditions. The magnitude of either response may vary across elevation and vegetation types. We situated our study at the lower boundary of persistent snow cover and the upper boundary of subalpine forest with paired treatment blocks in aspen forest and open meadow. In treatments plots, we advanced snowmelt timing by an average of 14 days by adding dust to the snow surface during spring melt. We specifically wanted to know whether early snowmelt would increase the duration of the summer-dry period and cause soils to be drier in the early-snowmelt treatments compared with control plots. We found no difference in the onset of the summer-dry state and no significant differences in soil moisture between treatments. To better understand the reasons soil moisture did not respond to early snowmelt as expected, we examined the mediating influences of soil organic matter, texture, temperature, and the presence or absence of forest. In our study, late-spring precipitation may have moderated the effects of early snowmelt on soil moisture. We conclude that landscape characteristics, including soil, vegetation, and regional weather patterns, may supersede the effects of snowmelt timing in determining growing season soil moisture, and efforts to anticipate the impacts of climate change on seasonally snow-covered ecosystems should take into account these mediating factors. 

  19. Archaean tectonic systems: A view from igneous rocks (United States)

    Moyen, Jean-François; Laurent, Oscar


    with somewhat different tectonic systems. In particular, the familiar distinction between collision, arcs, ridges and hotspots seems to blur in the Archaean. Rather, the large-scale geochemical pattern reveals a long-lived, altered and periodically resurfaced basaltic crust. This protocrust is reworked, through a range of processes occurring at various depths that correspond to a progressive stabilization of burial systems and the establishment of true subductions. A punctuated onset of global plate tectonics is unlikely to have occurred, but rather short-term episodes of proto-subduction in the late Archaean evolved over time into longer-term, more stable style of plate tectonics as mantle temperature decayed.

  20. Influence of climate variability on anchovy reproductive timing off northern Chile (United States)

    Contreras-Reyes, Javier E.; Canales, T. Mariella; Rojas, Pablo M.


    We investigated the relationship between environmental variables and the Gonadosomatic Monthly Mean (GMM) index of anchovy (Engraulis ringens) to understand how the environment affects the dynamics of anchovy reproductive timing. The data examined corresponds to biological information collected from samples of the landings off northern Chile (18°21‧S, 24°00‧S) during the period 1990-2010. We used the Humboldt Current Index (HCI) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), which combine several physical-oceanographic factors in the Tropical and South Pacific regions. Using the GMM index, we studied the dynamics of anchovy reproductive timing at different intervals of length, specifically females with a length between 11.5 and 14 cm (medium class) and longer than 14 cm (large class). Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Mobile Average (SARIMA) was used to predict missing observations. The trends of the environment and reproductive indexes were explored via the Breaks For Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) statistical technique and the relationship between these indexes via cross-correlation functions (CCF) analysis. Our results showed that the habitat of anchovy switched from cool to warm condition, which also influenced gonad development. This was revealed by two and three significant changes (breaks) in the trend of the HCI and MEI indexes, and two significant breaks in the GMM of each time series of anchovy females (medium and large). Negative cross-correlation between the MEI index and GMM of medium and large class females was found, indicating that as the environment gets warmer (positive value of MEI) a decrease in the reproductive activity of anchovy can be expected. Correlation between the MEI index and larger females was stronger than with medium females. Additionally, our results indicate that the GMM index of anchovy for both length classes reaches two maximums per year; the first from August to September and the second from December to January. The

  1. Frequent but asymmetric niche shifts in Bulbophyllum orchids support environmental and climatic instability in Madagascar over Quaternary time scales. (United States)

    Gamisch, Alexander; Fischer, Gunter Alexander; Comes, Hans Peter


    Species or clades may retain or shift their environmental niche space over evolutionary time. Understanding these processes offers insights into the environmental processes fuelling lineage diversification and might also provide information on past range dynamics of ecosystems. However, little is known about the relative contributions of niche conservatism versus niche divergence to species diversification in the tropics. Here, we examined broad-scale patterns of niche evolution within a Pliocene-Pleistocene clade of epiphytic Bulbophyllum orchids (30 spp.) whose collective distribution covers the northwest and eastern forest ecosystems of Madagascar. Using species occurrence data, ecological niche models, and multivariate analyses of contributing variables, we identified a three-state niche distribution character for the entire clade, coinciding with three major forest biomes viz. phytogeographical provinces in Madagascar: A, Northwest 'Sambirano'; B, 'Eastern Lowlands'; and C, 'Central Highlands'. A time-calibrated phylogeny and Bayesian models of niche evolution were then used to detect general trends in the direction of niche change over the clade's history (≤5.3 Ma). We found highest transitions rates between lowlands (A and B) and (mostly from B) into the highland (C), with extremely low rates out of the latter. Lowland-to-highland transitions occurred frequently during the Quaternary, suggesting that climate-induced vegetational shifts promoted niche transitions and ecological speciation at this time. Our results reveal that niche transitions occurred frequently and asymmetrically within this Madagascan orchid clade, and in particular over Quaternary time scales. Intrinsic features germane to Bulbophyllum (e.g., high dispersal ability, drought tolerance, multiple photosynthetic pathways) as well as extrinsic factors (ecological, historical) likely interacted to generate the niche transition patterns observed. In sum, our results support the emerging idea

  2. Geologic and tectonic characteristics of rockbursts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adushkin, V.V. [Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. for Dynamics of the Geospheres; Charlamov, V.A.; Kondratyev, S.V.; Rybnov, Y.S.; Shemyakin, V.M.; Sisov, I.A.; Syrnikov, N.M.; Turuntaev, S.B.; Vasilyeva, T.V. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)


    The modern mining enterprises have attained such scales of engineering activity that their direct influence to a rock massif and in series of cases to the region seismic regime doesn`t provoke any doubts. Excavation and removal of large volumes of rock mass, industrial explosions and other technological factors during long time can lead to the accumulation of man-made changes in rock massifs capable to cause catastrophic consequences. The stress state changes in considerable domains of massif create dangerous concentration of stresses at large geological heterogeneities - faults localized in the mining works zone. External influence can lead in that case to such phenomena as tectonic rockbursts and man-made earthquakes. The rockbursts problem in world mining practice exists for more than two hundred years. So that its actuality not only doesn`t decrease but steadily mounts up as due to the mining works depth increase, enlargement of the useful minerals excavations volumes as due to the possibility of safe use of the rock massif potential energy for facilitating the mastering of the bowels of the Earth and for making that more cheap. The purpose of present work is to study the engineering activity influence to processes occurring in the upper part of Earth crust and in particular in a rock massif. The rock massif is treated in those studies as a geophysical medium - such approach takes into account the presence of block structure of medium and the continuous exchange of energy between parts of that structure. The idea ``geophysical medium`` is applied in geophysics sufficiently wide and stresses the difference of actual Earth crust and rock massifs from the continuous media models discussed in mechanics.

  3. The influence of geographic and climate factors on the timing of dengue epidemics in Perú, 1994-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Broutin Hélène


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease that affects between 50 and 100 million people each year. Increasing our understanding of the heterogeneous transmission patterns of dengue at different spatial scales could have considerable public health value by guiding intervention strategies. Methods Based on the weekly number of dengue cases in Perú by province, we investigated the association between dengue incidence during the period 1994-2008 and demographic and climate factors across geographic regions of the country. Results Our findings support the presence of significant differences in the timing of dengue epidemics between jungle and coastal regions, with differences significantly associated with the timing of the seasonal cycle of mean temperature. Conclusions Dengue is highly persistent in jungle areas of Perú where epidemics peak most frequently around March when rainfall is abundant. Differences in the timing of dengue epidemics in jungle and coastal regions are significantly associated with the seasonal temperature cycle. Our results suggest that dengue is frequently imported into coastal regions through infective sparks from endemic jungle areas and/or cities of other neighboring endemic countries, where propitious environmental conditions promote year-round mosquito breeding sites. If jungle endemic areas are responsible for multiple dengue introductions into coastal areas, our findings suggest that curtailing the transmission of dengue in these most persistent areas could lead to significant reductions in dengue incidence in coastal areas where dengue incidence typically reaches low levels during the dry season.

  4. Provenance, tectonic setting and source-area weathering of the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    s12040-017-0803-5. Provenance, tectonic setting and source-area weathering of the lower Cambrian ... (2010) carried out detrital zircon studies in order to correlate ...... and tectonic evolution of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt;. Chinese Sci. Bull.

  5. Plate Tectonics and Continental Drift: Classroom Ideas. (United States)

    Stout, Prentice K.


    Suggests various classroom studies related to plate tectonics and continental drift, including comments on and sources of resource materials useful in teaching the topics. A complete list of magazine articles on the topics from the Sawyer Marine Resource Collection may be obtained by contacting the author. (JN)

  6. 3D monitoring of active tectonic structures

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Stemberk, Josef; Košťák, Blahoslav; Vilímek, V.


    Roč. 36, 1-2 (2003), s. 103-112 ISSN 0264-3707 R&D Projects: GA MŠk OC 625.10 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3046908 Keywords : tectonics * monitoring * active structures Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 0.754, year: 2003

  7. Radial Extension, Prototypicality, and Tectonic Equivalence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaver Stephen R.


    Full Text Available In his book “Without Metaphor, No Saving God: Theology After Cognitive Linguistics”, Robert Masson describes a metaphoric process by which newly accepted truths emerge: for example, in the assertion “Jesus is the Messiah,” Christians reconfigure the field of meanings associated with an existing concept from the Hebrew scriptures (messiah by asserting its identification with Jesus. Masson dubs this process a “tectonic equivalence” or “tectonic shift.” In this paper I build on Masson‘s work by examining some of the shifts he describes as tectonic through the lens of the cognitive linguistics concepts of radial extension and polysemy. I propose that a lasting tectonic shift may be understood as a blend creating a radial extension that substantially alters the category structure of the original source frame so that the blended space comes to be understood as a central instance of that category. Such an approach allows a fruitful analysis of the similarities and differences among three example blends: god is a rock, jesus is the messiah, and jesus is god.

  8. Discriminating four tectonic settings: Five new geochemical ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 115; Issue 5. Discriminating four tectonic settings: Five new geochemical diagrams for basic and ultrabasic volcanic rocks based on log–ratio transformation of major-element data. Surendra P Verma Mirna Guevara Salil Agrawal. Volume 115 Issue 5 October 2006 ...

  9. The Phenomenology and Tectonics of Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carter, Adrian


    “The material, detail and structure of a building is an absolute condition. Architecture’s potential is to deliver authentic meanings in what we see, touch and smell; the tectonic is ultimately central to what we feel” Steven Holl...

  10. Tectonic studies in the Lansjaerv region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henkel, H.


    This report contains the results and the analysis of ground geophysical measurements and the tectonic interpretation in the 150x200 km Lansjaerv study area. It describes the data and methods used. The significance of strike slip fault patterns in relation to the surface morphology is discussed. The obtained results are used to suggest a tentative model for the present tectonic deformation. The report is part of the bedrock stability programme of SKB. The major conclusions regarding the tectonic structure are: Three regional fault systems are identified, two steep NW and N trending and a third NNE trending with gentle ESE dips, the steep fault systems have strike slip generated deformation patterns both in the Precambrian structures and in the surface morphology, the post-glacial faults of the area are part of this fault pattern and represent movements mainly on reactivated, gently dipping zones, several suspected late or post-glacial, fault related features are found along the steep NW and N faults. Sites for drilling and geodetic networks for deformation measurements are suggested. Detailed background data are documented in additional 4 reports. The basic geophysical and geological datasets are documented in color plotted 1:250 000 maps. A tectonic interpretation map in the same scale has been produced by combined interpretation of magnetic, elevation, elevation relief and gravity data. (orig./HP) With 6 maps

  11. Structure and tectonics of convergent plate margins

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Špičák, Aleš (ed.); Čadek, O. (ed.); Engdahl, E. R. (ed.)


    Roč. 141, č. 4 (2004), s. 241 ISSN 0031-9201 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KSK3012103 Keywords : tectonics * subduction * convergent margins Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.370, year: 2004

  12. Crustal thickness controlled by plate tectonics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Artemieva, Irina M.; Meissner, Rolf


    /gabbro–eclogite phase transition in crustal evolution and the links between lithosphere recycling, mafic magmatism, and crustal underplating. We advocate that plate tectonics processes, togetherwith basalt/gabbro–eclogite transition, limit crustal thickness worldwide by providing effective mechanisms of crustal...

  13. Climatic triggers for peatland initiation (United States)

    Morris, Paul J.; Swindles, Graeme T.; Valdes, Paul J.; Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Gregoire, Lauren J.; Smith, Mark W.; Tarasov, Lev; Haywood, Alan M.; Bacon, Karen L.


    Peatlands are carbon-dense wetlands characterised by waterlogged, organic-rich soils. Modern-day peatlands have formed mainly since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and despite covering only 3 % of the Earth's land surface are thought to store more than a third of all global soil carbon in the form of poorly decomposed plant detritus. Concern exists that this globally important carbon store may be vulnerable to near-future warming and changes in precipitation patterns, although the links between peatland development and climate are contested. The climatic and other environmental conditions that facilitate the initiation of peat are particularly poorly understood. We present the results of a novel, global study into the climate space of peat initiation since the LGM. We compiled a catalogue of radiocarbon dates of peat initiation from 942 sites that span a range of latitudes and biomes. We used the locations and ages of these peatlands to interrogate downscaled climate hindcasts at 500-yr intervals from a coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model, HadCM3. This powerful combination of modelling and observational data provides a globally-consistent, temporally-extensive estimate of the climate spaces of peat initiation. In particular, it allows us to identify local and regional climatic changes that may have acted as triggers for peat formation. Peatlands in mid- and high-latitudes of both hemispheres, particularly in maritime locations, developed shortly after local increases in the time integral of growing season temperatures, and were seemingly not influenced by rainfall regime. Peat initiation at such sites appears to have been stimulated by temperature-driven increases in plant productivity in cold, postglacial landscapes, and was not water limited. The exception is the large peatland complex of the Western Siberian Lowlands, which was not glaciated during the last glacial period, and which appears to have been prompted instead by a strong

  14. Relative importance of climate changes at different time scales on net primary productivity-a case study of the Karst area of northwest Guangxi, China. (United States)

    Liu, Huiyu; Zhang, Mingyang; Lin, Zhenshan


    Climate changes are considered to significantly impact net primary productivity (NPP). However, there are few studies on how climate changes at multiple time scales impact NPP. With MODIS NPP product and station-based observations of sunshine duration, annual average temperature and annual precipitation, impacts of climate changes at different time scales on annual NPP, have been studied with EEMD (ensemble empirical mode decomposition) method in the Karst area of northwest Guangxi, China, during 2000-2013. Moreover, with partial least squares regression (PLSR) model, the relative importance of climatic variables for annual NPP has been explored. The results show that (1) only at quasi 3-year time scale do sunshine duration and temperature have significantly positive relations with NPP. (2) Annual precipitation has no significant relation to NPP by direct comparison, but significantly positive relation at 5-year time scale, which is because 5-year time scale is not the dominant scale of precipitation; (3) the changes of NPP may be dominated by inter-annual variabilities. (4) Multiple time scales analysis will greatly improve the performance of PLSR model for estimating NPP. The variable importance in projection (VIP) scores of sunshine duration and temperature at quasi 3-year time scale, and precipitation at quasi 5-year time scale are greater than 0.8, indicating important for NPP during 2000-2013. However, sunshine duration and temperature at quasi 3-year time scale are much more important. Our results underscore the importance of multiple time scales analysis for revealing the relations of NPP to changing climate.

  15. Effect of Residue Nitrogen Concentration and Time Duration on Carbon Mineralization Rate of Alfalfa Residues in Regions with Different Climatic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    saeid shafiei


    Full Text Available Introduction Various factors like climatic conditions, vegetation, soil properties, topography, time, plant residue quality and crop management strategies affect the decomposition rate of organic carbon (OC and its residence time in soil. Plant residue management concerns nutrients recycling, carbon recycling in ecosystems and the increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Plant residue decomposition is a fundamental process in recycling of organic matter and elements in most ecosystems. Soil management, particularly plant residue management, changes soil organic matter both qualitatively and quantitatively. Soil respiration and carbon loss are affected by soil temperature, soil moisture, air temperature, solar radiation and precipitation. In natural agro-ecosystems, residue contains different concentrations of nitrogen. It is important to understand the rate and processes involved in plant residue decomposition, as these residues continue to be added to the soil under different weather conditions, especially in arid and semi-arid climates. Material and methods Organic carbon mineralization of alfalfa residue with different nitrogen concentrations was assessed in different climatic conditions using split-plot experiments over time and the effects of climate was determined using composite analysis. The climatic conditions were classified as warm-arid (Jiroft, temperate arid (Narab and cold semi-arid (Sardouiyeh using cluster analysis and the nitrogen (N concentrations of alfalfa residue were low, medium and high. The alfalfa residue incubated for four different time periods (2, 4, 6 and 8 months. The dynamics of organic carbon in different regions measured using litter bags (20×10 cm containing 20 g alfalfa residue of 2-10 mm length which were placed on the soil surface. Results and discussion The results of this study showed that in a warm-arid (Jiroft, carbon loss and the carbon decomposition rate constant were low in a cold semi

  16. Geomorphic indices and relative tectonic uplift in the Guerrero sector of the Mexican forearc

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Gaidzik


    The results of the applied landscape analysis reveal considerable variations in relief, topography and geomorphic indices values along the Guerrero sector of the Mexican subduction zone. We argue that the reported differences are indicative of tectonic deformation and of variations in relative tectonic uplift along the studied forearc. A significant drop from central and eastern parts of the study area towards the west in values of RVA (from ∼500 to ∼300, SL (from ∼500 to ca. 400, maximum SL (from ∼1500–2500 to ∼1000 and ksn (from ∼150 to ∼100 denotes a decrease in relative tectonic uplift in the same direction. We suggest that applied geomorphic indices values and forearc topography are independent of climate and lithology. Actual mechanisms responsible for the observed variations and inferred changes in relative forearc tectonic uplift call for further studies that explain the physical processes that control the forearc along strike uplift variations and that determine the rates of uplift. The proposed methodology and results obtained through this study could prove useful to scientists who study the geomorphology of forearc regions and active subduction zones.

  17. A Satellite-Based Surface Radiation Climatology Derived by Combining Climate Data Records and Near-Real-Time Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bodo Ahrens


    Full Text Available This study presents a method for adjusting long-term climate data records (CDRs for the integrated use with near-real-time data using the example of surface incoming solar irradiance (SIS. Recently, a 23-year long (1983–2005 continuous SIS CDR has been generated based on the visible channel (0.45–1 μm of the MVIRI radiometers onboard the geostationary Meteosat First Generation Platform. The CDR is available from the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF. Here, it is assessed whether a homogeneous extension of the SIS CDR to the present is possible with operationally generated surface radiation data provided by CM SAF using the SEVIRI and GERB instruments onboard the Meteosat Second Generation satellites. Three extended CM SAF SIS CDR versions consisting of MVIRI-derived SIS (1983–2005 and three different SIS products derived from the SEVIRI and GERB instruments onboard the MSG satellites (2006 onwards were tested. A procedure to detect shift inhomogeneities in the extended data record (1983–present was applied that combines the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT and a penalized maximal T-test with visual inspection. Shift detection was done by comparing the SIS time series with the ground stations mean, in accordance with statistical significance. Several stations of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN and about 50 stations of the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA over Europe were used as the ground-based reference. The analysis indicates several breaks in the data record between 1987 and 1994 probably due to artefacts in the raw data and instrument failures. After 2005 the MVIRI radiometer was replaced by the narrow-band SEVIRI and the broadband GERB radiometers and a new retrieval algorithm was applied. This induces significant challenges for the homogenisation across the satellite generations. Homogenisation is performed by applying a mean-shift correction depending on the shift size of

  18. Can Tectonic Loading be Observed as Interseismic Stress Rotation? (United States)

    Hardebeck, J.


    The shear stress on major faults evolves through the seismic cycle, due to tectonic stress loading, coseismic stress release, and earthquake stress transfer. If the seismic cycle stresses are small compared to the background differential stress, the stress orientations should not change during the seismic cycle. However, observed coseismic stress rotations imply that the stress drop is on the order of the differential stress. The coseismic stress rotations suggest that the stress rotates back during the rest of the seismic cycle as the fault is reloaded, raising the possibility that monitoring interseismic stress changes could inform earthquake hazard assessment. I test whether observable interseismic stress rotations in southern California are consistent with tectonic loading. I invert the focal mechanism catalog of Yang et al (BSSA, 2012) for stress orientations in 4 time periods, and look for significant changes in the direction of the maximum horizontal stress axis, SHmax. For a simple loading model, increased shear stress on strike-slip faults should correspond to SHmax rotating towards a 45° angle to the fault strike. For the San Andreas, San Jacinto, Elsinore, and Garlock faults, however, >40% of sample points along the fault experience SHmax rotating away from 45°. To better account for the complexity of loading of the fault system, I compute the SHmax rotation directions predicted by the SCEC Community Stress Model (CSM). I add 33 years of loading from a stressing rate model to a stress model, for different pairs of CSM models, and compute the direction of SHmax rotation. Most pairs of models exhibit similar patterns of SHmax rotation, featuring counter-clockwise rotations centered along the major faults. The observed rotations, in both directions, do not qualitatively match these predicted patterns. I conclude that the interseismic tectonic stress loading in southern California is not detectable, at least over the 33-year time period of the mechanism

  19. Tectonic Evolution of the Çayirhan Neogene Basin (Ankara), Central Turkey (United States)

    Behzad, Bezhan; Koral, Hayrettin; İşb&idot; l, Duygu; Karaaǧa; ç, Serdal


    Çayırhan (Ankara) is located at crossroads of the Western Anatolian extensional region, analogous to the Basin and Range Province, and suture zone of the Neotethys-Ocean, which is locus of the North Anatolian Transform since the Late Miocene. To the north of Çayırhan (Ankara), a Neogene sedimentary basin comprises Lower-Middle Miocene and Upper Miocene age formations, characterized by swamp, fluvial and lacustrine settings respectively. This sequence is folded and transected by neotectonic faults. The Sekli thrust fault is older than the Lower-Middle Miocene age formations. The Davutoǧlan fault is younger than the Lower-Middle Miocene formations and is contemporaneous to the Upper Miocene formation. The Çatalkaya fault is younger than the Upper Miocene formation. The sedimentary and tectonic features provide information on mode, timing and evolution of this Neogene age sedimentary basin in Central Turkey. It is concluded that the region underwent a period of uplift and erosion under the influence of contractional tectonics prior to the Early-Middle Miocene, before becoming a semi-closed basin under influence of transtensional tectonics during the Early-Middle Miocene and under influence of predominantly extensional tectonics during the post-Late Miocene times. Keywords: Tectonics, Extension, Transtension, Stratigraphy, Neotectonic features.

  20. Changes in floral diversities, floral turnover rates, and climates in Campanian and Maastrichtian time, North Slope of Alaska (United States)

    Frederiksen, N.O.


    One-hundred-and-ten angiosperm pollen taxa have been found in upper Campanian to Masstrichtian rocks of the Colville River region, North Slope of Alaska. These are the highest paleolatitude Campanian and Maastrichtian floras known from North America. Total angiosperm pollen diversity rose during the Campanian and declined toward the end of the Maastrichtian. However, anemophilous porate pollen of the Betulaceae-Myricaceae-Ulmaceae complex increased gradually in diversity during the late Campanian and Maastrichtian and into the Paleocene. Turnover of angiosperm taxa was active throughout most of late Campanian and Maastrichtian time; rapid turnover affected mainly the taxa of zoophilous herbs, representing an bundant but ecologically subordinate element of the vegetation. Last appearances of pollen taxa during the late Campanian and Maastrichtian probably represented mainly extinctions rather than emigrations; end- Cretaceous angiosperm extinctions in the North American Arctic began well before the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary event. The last appearances in the late Maastrichtian took place in bursts; they appear to represent stepwise rather than gradual events, which may indicate the existence of pulses of climatic change particularly in late Maastrichtian time. ?? 1989.

  1. Impacts and tectonism in Earth and moon history of the past 3800 million years (United States)

    Stothers, Richard B.


    The moon's surface, unlike the Earth's, displays a comparatively clear record of its past bombardment history for the last 3800 Myr, the time since active lunar tectonism under the massive premare bombardment ended. From Baldwin's (1987) tabulation of estimated ages for a representative sample of large lunar craters younger than 3800 Ma, six major cratering episodes can be discerned. These six bombardment episodes, which must have affected the Earth too, appear to match in time the six major episodes of orogenic tectonism on Earth, despite typical resolution errors of +/- 100 Myr and the great uncertainties of the two chronologies. Since more highly resolved events during the Cenozoic and Mesozoic Eras suggest the same correlation, it is possible that large impacts have influenced plate tectonics and other aspects of geologic history, perhaps by triggering flood basalt eruptions.

  2. Strain transformation between tectonic extrusion and crustal thickening in the growth of the Tibetan Plateau (United States)

    Liu, M.; Li, Y.; Sun, Y.; Shen, X.


    The Indo-Eurasian continental collision since 50 Ma has thickened the crust to raise the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau and driven lateral extrusion of Asian lithospheric blocks to affect Cenozoic tectonics in central and east Asia. The relative roles of crustal thickening and tectonic extrusion, and the strain partitioning between them over time and space, remain controversial. We have analyzed the strain rates using GPS velocities, and correlated the results with vertical motion derived from precise leveling. We found that tectonic extrusion largely transforms to crustal thickening near the margins of the Tibetan Plateau. Near the NW margin of the Tibetan Plateau, the shear stain transforms to compressive strain, consistent with neotectonic studies that indicate crustal shortening and uplift. Around the SE margin, shear stain largely terminates in the southern Yunnan province of China. The present-day crustal motion in SE Tibetan Plateau can be well explained by gravitational spreading without invoking plate-edge push as envisioned in the tectonic extrusion model. Using data collected from local seismic arrays, we derived receiver functions to image the lithospheric structures across the Tibetan Plateau and the Alashan block to its north and the Ordos block to its east. Our results indicate that the mantle lithosphere of these bounding Asian blocks has not been reworked by Tibetan tectonics; instead they have acted as restrictive walls to the growing Tibetan Plateau. Our finite element modeling shows that crustal deformation along the margins of the Tibetan Plateau are consistent with the notion that the east- and southeastward extrusion of the Tibetan lithosphere is largely confined to the Tibetan Plateau because of the restrictive bounding blocks of the Asian lithosphere. Thus the tectonic impact of the Indo-Eurasian collision on the Cenozoic Asian tectonics may not be as extensive as previously thought.

  3. Changes in Eocene-Miocene shallow marine carbonate factories along the tropical SE Circum-Caribbean responded to major regional and global environmental and tectonic events (United States)

    Silva-Tamayo, Juan Carlos


    Changes in the factory of Cenozoic tropical marine carbonates have been for long attributed to major variations on climatic and environmental conditions. Although important changes on the factories of Cenozoic Caribbean carbonates seem to have followed global climatic and environmental changes, the regional impact of such changes on the factories of shallow marine carbonate along the Caribbean is not well established. Moreover, the influence of transpressional tectonics on the occurrence, distribution and stratigraphy of shallow marine carbonate factories along this area is far from being well understood. Here we report detailed stratigraphic, petrographic and Sr-isotope chemostratigraphic information of several Eocene-Miocene carbonate successions deposited along the equatorial/tropical SE Circum-Caribbean (Colombia and Panama) from which we further assess the influence of changing environmental conditions, transtentional tectonics and sea level change on the development of the shallow marine carbonate factories. Our results suggest that during the Eocene-early Oligocene interval, a period of predominant high atmospheric pCO2, coralline algae constitute the principal carbonate builders of shallow marine carbonate successions along the SE Circum-Caribbean. Detailed stratigraphic and paragenetic analyses suggest the developed of laterally continuous red algae calcareous build-ups along outer-rimmed carbonate platforms. The predominance of coralline red algae over corals on the shallow marine carbonate factories was likely related to high sea surface temperatures and high turbidity. The occurrence of such build-ups was likely controlled by pronounce changes in the basin paleotopography, i.e. the occurrence of basement highs and lows, resulting from local transpressional tectonics. The occurrence of these calcareous red algae dominated factories was also controlled by diachronic opening of different sedimentary basins along the SE Circum Caribbean resulting from

  4. Climatic warming above the Arctic Circle: are there trends in timing and length of the thermal growing season in Murmansk Region (Russia) between 1951 and 2012? (United States)

    Blinova, Ilona; Chmielewski, Frank-Michael


    Anomalies in the timing of the thermal growing season have become obvious in the NE part of Fennoscandia since 2000. They are in accordance with climatic changes reported for Europe and Fennoscandia. The actual length of the growing season reached 120 days on average, onset on 30 May and ending on 27 September (1981-2010). Shifts in the timing of the growing season and its mean prolongation by 18.5 days/62a are demonstrated for Murmansk Region (1951-2012). In this period, the onset of the growing season advanced by 7.1 days/62a, while the end was extended by 11.4 days/62a. The delay in the end of the growing season is similar to the entire Fennoscandian pattern but it has not been detected in the rest of Europe. The regional pattern of climatic regimes in Murmansk Region remained stable in comparison with earlier climatic maps (1971). However, the actual shifts in the timing of the growing season were more pronounced in colder (oceanic and mountainous) parts. Recent climatic trends could influence the retreat of the tundra zone and changes in the forest line. Losses of tundra biodiversity and enrichment of the northern taiga by southern species could be expected from present climatic trends.

  5. The alternative concept of global tectonics (United States)

    Anokhin, Vladimir; Kholmyansky, Mikhael


    The existing plate tectonic paradigm becomes more questionable in relation to the new facts of the Earth. The most complete to date criticism of plate tectonics provisions contained in the article (Pratt, 2000). Authors can recall a few facts that contradict the idea of long-range movement of plates: - The absence of convection cells in the mantle, detected by seismic tomography; - The presence of long-lived deep regmatic network in the crust, not distorted by the movement of plates; - The inability of linking the global geometry of the of mutual long-distance movement of plates. All this gives reason to believe that correct, or at least a satisfactory concept of global tectonics are not exist now. After overcoming the usual inertia of thinking the plate paradigm in the foreseeable future will replace by different concept, more relevant as the observable facts of the Earth and the well-known physical laws. The authors suggest that currently accumulated sufficient volume of facts and theoretical ideas for the synthesis of a new general hypothesis of the structure and dynamics of the Earth. Analysis of the existing tectonic theory suggests that most of their provisions are mutually compatible. Obviously, plume tectonics perfectly compatible with any of classical models. It contradicts the only plate tectonics (movement of hot spots in principle not linked either with each other or with the general picture of the plate movements, the presence of mantle convection and mantle streams are mutually exclusive, and so on). The probable transfer of the heated material down up within the Earth may occur in various forms, the simplest of which (and, consequently, the most probable) are presented plumes. The existence in the mantle numerous large volumes of decompressed substances (detected seismic tomography), can be correlated with the bodies of plumes at different stages of uplift. Plumes who raise to the bottom of the lithosphere, to spread out to the sides and form a set

  6. Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas-fir (United States)

    Kevin Ford; Connie Harrington; Sheel Bansal; Peter J. Gould; Brad St. Clair


    Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm...

  7. Making the Most of Time and Talent: Secondary School Organizational Climates, Teaching Task Environments, and Teacher Commitment. (United States)

    Riehl, Carolyn; Sipple, John W.


    Relationships among teachers' task environments, school organizational climates, and teachers' professional and organizational commitments were examined using data from the Schools and Staffing Survey for 14,844 secondary school teachers. Results suggest that commitment is associated with school climate. (SLD)

  8. Developing adaptive capacity in times of climate change in central rural Vietnam: exploring smallholders’ learning and governance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Le, Thi Hong Phuong


    Climate change already affects Vietnam in virtually all sectors. Agriculture in small communities is particularly vulnerable to current and projected climate change impacts. Many of the smallholder farmers in Vietnam have limited adaptive capacity to deal with these impacts. Increasingly social

  9. Tectonic subsidence of the Zhu 1 Sub-basin in the Pearl River Mouth Basin, northern South China Sea (United States)

    Tang, Xiaoyin; Yang, Shuchun; Zhu, Junzhang; Long, Zulie; Jiang, Guangzheng; Huang, Shaopeng; Hu, Shengbiao


    The Pearl River Mouth Basin, which is situated on the northern margin of the South China Sea, has attracted great attention not only because of its tectonic setting but also because of its abundant hydrocarbon resources. We have analyzed the Cenozoic tectonic subsidence history of 4 drilled wells and 43 artificial wells from the Zhu 1 Sub-basin of the Pearl River Mouth Basin by back-stripping, using newly interpreted seismic profiles. We also calculated the average tectonic subsidence rates of the four sags in the Zhu 1 Sub-basin. The rifting and post-rifting stages are separated by abrupt changes in the tectonic subsidence curves and average subsidence rates. In the eastern sags of the Zhu 1 Sub-basin, tectonic subsidence started to slow at ca. 30 Ma, compared with ca. 23.8 Ma in the western sags. This probably corresponds to the timing of break-up and suggests that rifting in the Pearl River Mouth Basin ended earlier in the eastern sags than in the western sags. Anomalously accelerated tectonic subsidence occurred at 17.5-16.4 Ma during the post-rifting stage, with average subsidence rates as high as 301.9 m/Myr. This distinguishes the Pearl River Mouth Basin from classical Atlantic passive continental marginal basins, which demonstrate exponentially decaying post-rift tectonic subsidence.

  10. Boninites: Characteristics and tectonic constraints, northeastern Appalachians (United States)

    Kim, J.; Jacobi, R.D.


    Boninites are high Mg andesites that are thought to form in suprasubduction zone tectonic environments as primary melts from refractory mantle. Boninites provide a potential constraint on tectonic models for ancient terranes that contain boninites because the only unequivocal tectonic setting in which "modern" boninites have been recognized is a fore-arc setting. Tectonic models for "modern" boninite genesis include subduction initiation ("infant arc"), fore-arc spreading, and the forearc side of intra-arc rifting (spreading). These models can be differentiated by the relative age of the boninites and to a lesser degree, geochemistry. The distinctive geochemistry of boninites promotes their recognition in ancient terranes. As detailed in this report, several mafic terranes in the northeastern Appalachians contain boninites; these terranes were situated on both sides of Iapetus. The characteristics of these boninites can be used to constrain tectonic models of the evolution of the northeastern Appalachians. On the Laurentian side of Iapetus, "infant arc" boninites were not produced ubiquitously during the Cambrian subduction initiation, unless sampling problems or minimum age dates obscure a more widespread boninite "infant arc". The Cambrian subduction initiation on the Laurentian side was probably characterized by both "infant arc" boninitic arc construction (perhaps the >496 Ma Hawley Formation and the >488 Ma Betts Cove Ophiolite) and "normal" arc construction (Mt. Orford). This duality is consistent with the suggestion that the pre-collisional geometry of the Laurentian margin was complex. The Bay of Islands Complex and Thetford Mines ophiolite boninites are likely associated with forearc/intra-arc spreading during the protracted evolution of the Cambrian arc system. The relatively young boninites in the Bronson Hill Arc suggest that the Taconic continuous eastward subduction tectonic model is less tenable than other models. On the Gondwana side of Iapetus, the

  11. From Plate Tectonic to Continental Dynamics (United States)

    Molnar, P. H.


    By the early 1970s, the basics of plate tectonics were known. Although much understanding remained to be gained, as a topic of research, plate tectonics no longer defined the forefront of earth science. Not only had it become a foundation on which to build, but also the methods used to reveal it became tools to take in new directions. For me as a seismologist studying earthquakes and active processes, the deformation of continents offered an obvious topic to pursue. Obviously examining the deformation of continents and ignoring the widespread geologic evidence of both ongoing and finite deformation of crust would be stupid. I was blessed with the opportunity to learn from and collaborate with two of the best, Paul Tapponnier and Clark Burchfiel. Continental deformation differed from plate tectonics both because deformation was widespread but more importantly because crust shortens (extends) horizontally and thickens (thins), processes that can be ignored where plate tectonics - the relative motion of rigid plates - occurs. Where a plate boundary passes into a continent, not only must the forces that move plates do work against friction or other dissipative processes, but where high terrain is created, they must also do work against gravity, to create gravitational potential energy in high terrain. Peter Bird and Kenneth Piper and Philip England and Dan McKenzie showed that a two-dimensional thin viscous sheet with vertically averaged properties enabled both sources of resistance to be included without introducing excessive complexity and to be scaled by one dimensionless number, what the latter pair called the Argand number. Increasingly over the past thirty years, emphasis has shifted toward the role played by the mantle lithosphere, because of both its likely strength and its negative buoyancy, which makes it gravitationally unstable. Despite progress since realizing that rigid plates (the essence of plate tectonics) provides a poor description of continental

  12. Tectonic reversal of the western Doruneh Fault System: Implications for Central Asian tectonics (United States)

    Javadi, Hamid Reza; Esterabi Ashtiani, Marzieh; Guest, Bernard; Yassaghi, Ali; Ghassemi, Mohammad Reza; Shahpasandzadeh, Majid; Naeimi, Amir


    The left-lateral Doruneh Fault System (DFS) bounds the north margin of the Central Iranian microplate and has played an important role in the structural evolution of the Turkish-Iranian plateau. The western termination of the DFS is a sinistral synthetic branch fault array that shows clear kinematic evidence of having undergone recent slip sense inversion from a dextral array to a sinistral array in the latest Neogene or earliest Quaternary. Similarly, kinematic evidence from the Anarak Metamorphic complex suggests that this complex initially developed at a transpressive left-stepping termination of the DFS and that it was inverted in the latest Neogene to a transtensional fault termination. The recognition that the DFS and other faults in NE Iran were inverted from dextral to sinistral strike slip in the latest Neogene and the likely connection between the DFS and the Herat Fault of Afghanistan suggests that prior to the latest Miocene, all of the north Iranian and northern Afghan ranges were part of a distributed dextral fault network that extended from the west Himalayan syntaxes to the western Alborz. Also, the recognition that regional slip sense inversion occurred across northern and northeastern Iran after the latest Miocene invalidates tectonic models that extrapolate Pleistocene to recent fault slip kinematics and rates back beyond this time.

  13. Assessment of Regional Vegetation Response to Climate Anomalies: A Case Study for Australia Using GIMMS NDVI Time Series between 1982 and 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanda De Keersmaecker


    Full Text Available Within the context of climate change, it is of utmost importance to quantify the stability of ecosystems with respect to climate anomalies. It is well acknowledged that ecosystem stability may change over time. As these temporal stability changes may provide a warning for increased vulnerability of the system, this study provides a methodology to quantify and assess these temporal changes in vegetation stability. Within this framework, vegetation stability changes were quantified over Australia from 1982 to 2006 using GIMMS NDVI and climate time series (i.e., SPEI (Standardized Precipitation and Evaporation Index. Starting from a stability assessment on the complete time series, we aim to assess: (i the magnitude and direction of stability changes; and (ii the similarity in these changes for different stability metrics, i.e., the standard deviation of the NDVI anomaly (SD, auto-correlation at lag one of the NDVI anomaly (AC and the correlation of NDVI anomaly with SPEI (CS. Results show high variability in magnitude and direction for the different stability metrics. Large areas and types of Australian vegetation showed an increase in variability (SD over time; however, vegetation memory (AC decreased. The association of NDVI anomalies with drought events (CS showed a mixed response: the association increased in the western part, while it decreased in the eastern part. This methodology shows the potential for quantifying vegetation responses to major climate shifts and land use change, but results could be enhanced with higher resolution time series data.

  14. Disentangling Topographic and Climatic Change during the Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic in the Western US Cordillera (United States)

    Snell, K. E.; Eiler, J. M.; Wernicke, B. P.; Peppe, D. J.; Fox, D. L.; Fetrow, A. C.; Passey, B. H.


    A diverse suite of tectonic and climatic drivers influenced the topographic evolution of the western USA Cordillera. Despite years of study, considerable uncertainty remains about fundamentals of this evolution, such as the timing and magnitude of maximum average elevations for the different physiographic provinces; the drivers and topographic effects of different episodes of extension during the Cenozoic; and the relative relief of peaks and intermontane basins within the Cordillera at different times and in different places. Numerous tectonic models have been developed to explain the evolution of the Cordillera, and understanding these details is key for distinguishing between these different models. In addition, the topographic changes in the Cordillera have important implications for regional and local climate of the western US at different times in the past, and may drive important differences in local climatic responses to global climate changes through the Cenozoic. The majority of the tools that currently exist for quantitatively reconstructing changes in topography through time and space rely on paleoclimate proxy data. Thus it is also important to be able to disentangle climatic change from elevation change in terrestrial paleoclimate records. To address some of these outstanding questions, we have generated and compiled paleotemperature estimates from the Late Cretaceous through the Miocene of the western US. In this presentation, we will focus on the latest installment of the project, which utilizes Oligocene paleotemperature records from central Utah and South Dakota and Miocene-Holocene paleotemperature records from Kansas. The data are dominantly composed of mean annual temperature estimates from leaf margin analysis and summer temperature estimates from carbonate clumped isotope thermometry. We will discuss how these data compare to temperature data from the Paleogene from the western US, what general trends exist within all the data and how these

  15. Late-Cainozoic climate change, erosion, and relief of mountain belts: 20 years of chickens and eggs (Ralph Alger Bagnold Medal Lecture) (United States)

    van der Beek, Peter


    Over the last two decades, the geoscience community has realized that surface erosion, considered for over a century to respond passively to tectonic forcing, in fact strongly interacts with tectonic processes to produce the variety of deformation styles and relief forms observed in nature. Multiple feedbacks between tectonics, climate and erosion have been identified. In particular, it has been proposed that Cainozoic uplift of mountain belts such as the Himalaya led to global cooling due to CO2 drawdown from the atmosphere by efficient silicate weathering and organic carbon burial. At the same time, however, late-Cainozoic climate change, characterized by overall cooling and increased climatic variability, has been suggested to be responsible for increased erosion rates as well as uplift of mountain peaks through the isostatic response to erosion. Some active mountain belts have even been argued to respond to late-Cainozoic climate change by tectonic reorganisation. Thus, the relative strengths of the tectonic and climatic controls on mountain-belt relief and erosion rates, and how to discriminate between these, have arisen as central questions in tectonic geomorphology since the start of this century. Pliocene-Pleistocene (post-5 Ma) increases in sediment flux have been reported from many major mountain belts such as the Himalaya and the European Alps. It has been suggested this is a global signal in response to increased climatic instability since the Pliocene, although recent work suggests that at least part of the signal may be intrinsic to the nature of the sedimentary record. Analysis of in-situ thermochronology data from the Alps appeared to support the Pliocene increase in erosion rates, which have been linked to increased precipitation subsequent to the Messinian Salinity Crisis and/or the onset of Gulf-Stream circulation. However, recent more detailed work, based on numerical inverse modelling and the use of new high-resolution thermochronometers

  16. Nonmarine time-stratigraphy in a rift setting: An example from the Mid-Permian lower Quanzijie low-order cycle Bogda Mountains, NW China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Obrist-Farner


    Full Text Available Sedimentological and stratigraphic studies of seven stratigraphic sections of Permian Hongyanchi (HYC and Quanzijie (QZJ low-order cycles (LCs in the Tarlong-Taodonggou half graben and Dalongkou area in Bogda Mountains, NW China, demonstrate effective approaches and methodology in cyclo- and time-stratigraphic analyses of complex fluvial-lacustrine deposits in an intracontinental rift setting. A new synchronous stratigraphic unit, the lower QZJ LC is defined. The lower and upper boundaries of this cycle include a regionally correlative disconformity, erosional unconformity, and conformity, across which significant and abrupt changes in palaeoenvironments and tectonic and climatic conditions occurred