CCMC: bringing space weather awareness to the next generation

Science.gov (United States)

Chulaki, A.; Muglach, K.; Zheng, Y.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Taktakishvili, A.; Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Mendoza, A. M. M.; Thompson, B. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Pembroke, A. D.

2017-12-01

Making space weather an element of core education is critical for the future of the young field of space weather. Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is an interagency partnership established to aid the transition of modern space science models into space weather forecasting while supporting space science research. Additionally, over the past ten years it has established itself as a global space science education resource supporting undergraduate and graduate education and research, and spreading space weather awareness worldwide. A unique combination of assets, capabilities and close ties to the scientific and educational communities enable our small group to serve as a hub for rising generations of young space scientists and engineers. CCMC offers a variety of educational tools and resources publicly available online and providing access to the largest collection of modern space science models developed by the international research community. CCMC has revolutionized the way these simulations are utilized in classrooms settings, student projects, and scientific labs. Every year, this online system serves hundreds of students, educators and researchers worldwide. Another major CCMC asset is an expert space weather prototyping team primarily serving NASA's interplanetary space weather needs. Capitalizing on its unique capabilities and experiences, the team also provides in-depth space weather training to hundreds of students and professionals. One training module offers undergraduates an opportunity to actively engage in real-time space weather monitoring, analysis, forecasting, tools development and research, eventually serving remotely as NASA space weather forecasters. In yet another project, CCMC is collaborating with Hayden Planetarium and Linkoping University on creating a visualization platform for planetariums (and classrooms) to provide simulations of dynamic processes in the large domain stretching from the solar corona to the Earth's upper

Aviation & Space Weather Policy Research: Integrating Space Weather Observations & Forecasts into Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, G.; Jones, B.

2006-12-01

The American Meteorological Society and SolarMetrics Limited are conducting a policy research project leading to recommendations that will increase the safety, reliability, and efficiency of the nation's airline operations through more effective use of space weather forecasts and information. This study, which is funded by a 3-year National Science Foundation grant, also has the support of the Federal Aviation Administration and the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) who is planning the Next Generation Air Transportation System. A major component involves interviewing and bringing together key people in the aviation industry who deal with space weather information. This research also examines public and industrial strategies and plans to respond to space weather information. The focus is to examine policy issues in implementing effective application of space weather services to the management of the nation's aviation system. The results from this project will provide government and industry leaders with additional tools and information to make effective decisions with respect to investments in space weather research and services. While space weather can impact the entire aviation industry, and this project will address national and international issues, the primary focus will be on developing a U.S. perspective for the airlines.

Space Weather Outreach: Connection to STEM Standards

Science.gov (United States)

Dusenbery, P. B.

2008-12-01

Many scientists are studying the Sun-Earth system and attempting to provide timely, accurate, and reliable space environment observations and forecasts. Research programs and missions serve as an ideal focal point for creating educational content, making this an ideal time to inform the public about the importance and value of space weather research. In order to take advantage of this opportunity, the Space Science Institute (SSI) is developing a comprehensive Space Weather Outreach program to reach students, educators, and other members of the public, and share with them the exciting discoveries from this important scientific discipline. The Space Weather Outreach program has the following five components: (1) the Space Weather Center Website that includes online educational games; (2) Small Exhibits for Libraries, Shopping Malls, and Science Centers; (3) After-School Programs; (4) Professional Development Workshops for Educators, and (5) an innovative Evaluation and Education Research project. Its overarching goal is to inspire, engage, and educate a broad spectrum of the public and make strategic and innovative connections between informal and K-12 education communities. An important factor in the success of this program will be its alignment with STEM standards especially those related to science and mathematics. This presentation will describe the Space Weather Outreach program and how standards are being used in the development of each of its components.

Pushing the Envelope of Extreme Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Pesnell, W. D.

2014-12-01

Extreme Space Weather events are large solar flares or geomagnetic storms, which can cost billions of dollars to recover from. We have few examples of such events; the Carrington Event (the solar superstorm) is one of the few that had superlatives in three categories: size of solar flare, drop in Dst, and amplitude of aa. Kepler observations show that stars similar to the Sun can have flares releasing millions of times more energy than an X-class flare. These flares and the accompanying coronal mass ejections could strongly affect the atmosphere surrounding a planet. What level of solar activity would be necessary to strongly affect the atmosphere of the Earth? Can we map out the envelope of space weather along the evolution of the Sun? What would space weather look like if the Sun stopped producing a magnetic field? To what extreme should Space Weather go? These are the extremes of Space Weather explored in this talk.

Space Weather Services of Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Jangsuk, C.; Dong Kyu, K.; Jinyee, C.; Yeongoh, C.

2016-12-01

The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

An introduction to Space Weather Integrated Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Zhong, D.; Feng, X.

2012-12-01

The need for a software toolkit that integrates space weather models and data is one of many challenges we are facing with when applying the models to space weather forecasting. To meet this challenge, we have developed Space Weather Integrated Modeling (SWIM) that is capable of analysis and visualizations of the results from a diverse set of space weather models. SWIM has a modular design and is written in Python, by using NumPy, matplotlib, and the Visualization ToolKit (VTK). SWIM provides data management module to read a variety of spacecraft data products and a specific data format of Solar-Interplanetary Conservation Element/Solution Element MHD model (SIP-CESE MHD model) for the study of solar-terrestrial phenomena. Data analysis, visualization and graphic user interface modules are also presented in a user-friendly way to run the integrated models and visualize the 2-D and 3-D data sets interactively. With these tools we can locally or remotely analysis the model result rapidly, such as extraction of data on specific location in time-sequence data sets, plotting interplanetary magnetic field lines, multi-slicing of solar wind speed, volume rendering of solar wind density, animation of time-sequence data sets, comparing between model result and observational data. To speed-up the analysis, an in-situ visualization interface is used to support visualizing the data 'on-the-fly'. We also modified some critical time-consuming analysis and visualization methods with the aid of GPU and multi-core CPU. We have used this tool to visualize the data of SIP-CESE MHD model in real time, and integrated the Database Model of shock arrival, Shock Propagation Model, Dst forecasting model and SIP-CESE MHD model developed by SIGMA Weather Group at State Key Laboratory of Space Weather/CAS.

Space weather and space anomalies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. I. Dorman

2005-11-01

Full Text Available A large database of anomalies, registered by 220 satellites in different orbits over the period 1971-1994 has been compiled. For the first time, data from 49 Russian Kosmos satellites have been included in a statistical analysis. The database also contains a large set of daily and hourly space weather parameters. A series of statistical analyses made it possible to quantify, for different satellite orbits, space weather conditions on the days characterized by anomaly occurrences. In particular, very intense fluxes (>1000 pfu at energy >10 MeV of solar protons are linked to anomalies registered by satellites in high-altitude (>15000 km, near-polar (inclination >55° orbits typical for navigation satellites, such as those used in the GPS network, NAVSTAR, etc. (the rate of anomalies increases by a factor ~20, and to a much smaller extent to anomalies in geostationary orbits, (they increase by a factor ~4. Direct and indirect connections between anomaly occurrence and geomagnetic perturbations are also discussed.

SWIFF: Space weather integrated forecasting framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frederiksen Jacob Trier

2013-02-01

Full Text Available SWIFF is a project funded by the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Commission to study the mathematical-physics models that form the basis for space weather forecasting. The phenomena of space weather span a tremendous scale of densities and temperature with scales ranging 10 orders of magnitude in space and time. Additionally even in local regions there are concurrent processes developing at the electron, ion and global scales strongly interacting with each other. The fundamental challenge in modelling space weather is the need to address multiple physics and multiple scales. Here we present our approach to take existing expertise in fluid and kinetic models to produce an integrated mathematical approach and software infrastructure that allows fluid and kinetic processes to be modelled together. SWIFF aims also at using this new infrastructure to model specific coupled processes at the Solar Corona, in the interplanetary space and in the interaction at the Earth magnetosphere.

Motivating and Facilitating Advancements in Space Weather Real-Time Data Availability: Factors, Data, and Access Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Pankratz, C. K.; Baker, D. N.; Jaynes, A. N.; Elkington, S. R.; Baltzer, T.; Sanchez, F.

2017-12-01

Society's growing reliance on complex and highly interconnected technological systems makes us increasingly vulnerable to the effects of space weather events - maybe more than for any other natural hazard. An extreme solar storm today could conceivably impact hundreds of the more than 1400 operating Earth satellites. Such an extreme storm could cause collapse of the electrical grid on continental scales. The effects on navigation, communication, and remote sensing of our home planet could be devastating to our social functioning. Thus, it is imperative that the scientific community address the question of just how severe events might become. At least as importantly, it is crucial that policy makers and public safety officials be informed by the facts on what might happen during extreme conditions. This requires essentially real-time alerts, warnings, and also forecasts of severe space weather events, which in turn demands measurements, models, and associated data products to be available via the most effective data discovery and access methods possible. Similarly, advancement in the fundamental scientific understanding of space weather processes is also vital, requiring that researchers have convenient and effective access to a wide variety of data sets and models from multiple sources. The space weather research community, as with many scientific communities, must access data from dispersed and often uncoordinated data repositories to acquire the data necessary for the analysis and modeling efforts that advance our understanding of solar influences and space physics on the Earth's environment. The Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP), as a leading institution in both producing data products and advancing the state of scientific understanding of space weather processes, is well positioned to address many of these issues. In this presentation, we will outline the motivating factors for effective space weather data access, summarize the various data

Operational Numerical Weather Prediction at the Met Office and potential ways forward for operational space weather prediction systems

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, David

NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar

Near real-time geomagnetic data for space weather applications in the European sector

Science.gov (United States)

Johnsen, M. G.; Hansen, T. L.

2012-12-01

Tromsø Geophysical Observatory (TGO) is responsible for making and maintaining long time-series of geomagnetic measurements in Norway. TGO is currently operating 3 geomagnetic observatories and 11 variometer stations from southern Norway to Svalbard . Data from these 14 locations are acquired, processed and made available for the user community in near real-time. TGO is participating in several European Union (EU) and European Space Agency (ESA) space weather related projects where both near real-time data and derived products are provided. In addition the petroleum industry is benefiting from our real-time data services for directional drilling. Near real-time data from TGO is freely available for non-commercial purposes. TGO is exchanging data in near real-time with several institutions, enabling the presentation of near real-time geomagnetic data from more than 40 different locations in Fennoscandia and Greenland. The open exchange of non real-time geomagnetic data has been successfully going on for many years through services such as the world data center in Kyoto, SuperMAG, IMAGE and SPIDR. TGO's vision is to take this one step further and make the exchange of near real-time geomagnetic data equally available for the whole community. This presentation contains an overview of TGO, our activities and future aims. We will show how our near real-time data are presented. Our contribution to the space weather forecasting and nowcasting effort in the EU and ESA will be presented with emphasis on our real-time auroral activity index and brand new auroral activity monitor and electrojet tracker.

Predicting Space Weather: Challenges for Research and Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Singer, H. J.; Onsager, T. G.; Rutledge, R.; Viereck, R. A.; Kunches, J.

2013-12-01

Society's growing dependence on technologies and infrastructure susceptible to the consequences of space weather has given rise to increased attention at the highest levels of government as well as inspired the need for both research and improved space weather services. In part, for these reasons, the number one goal of the recent National Research Council report on a Decadal Strategy for Solar and Space Physics is to 'Determine the origins of the Sun's activity and predict the variations in the space environment.' Prediction of conditions in our space environment is clearly a challenge for both research and operations, and we require the near-term development and validation of models that have sufficient accuracy and lead time to be useful to those impacted by space weather. In this presentation, we will provide new scientific results of space weather conditions that have challenged space weather forecasters, and identify specific areas of research that can lead to improved capabilities. In addition, we will examine examples of customer impacts and requirements as well as the challenges to the operations community to establish metrics that enable the selection and transition of models and observations that can provide the greatest economic and societal benefit.

Space Weather Forecasting and Research at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

Science.gov (United States)

Aronne, M.

2015-12-01

The Space Weather Research Center (SWRC), within the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), provides experimental research forecasts and analysis for NASA's robotic mission operators. Space weather conditions are monitored to provide advance warning and forecasts based on observations and modeling using the integrated Space Weather Analysis Network (iSWA). Space weather forecasters come from a variety of backgrounds, ranging from modelers to astrophysicists to undergraduate students. This presentation will discuss space weather operations and research from an undergraduate perspective. The Space Weather Research, Education, and Development Initiative (SW REDI) is the starting point for many undergraduate opportunities in space weather forecasting and research. Space weather analyst interns play an active role year-round as entry-level space weather analysts. Students develop the technical and professional skills to forecast space weather through a summer internship that includes a two week long space weather boot camp, mentorship, poster session, and research opportunities. My unique development of research projects includes studying high speed stream events as well as a study of 20 historic, high-impact solar energetic particle events. This unique opportunity to combine daily real-time analysis with related research prepares students for future careers in Heliophysics.

Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

Science.gov (United States)

Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

2017-12-01

Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

Global Space Weather Observational Network: Challenges and China's Contribution

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, C.

2017-12-01

To understand space weather physical processes and predict space weather accurately, global space-borne and ground-based space weather observational network, making simultaneous observations from the Sun to geo-space (magnetosphere, ionosphere and atmosphere), plays an essential role. In this talk, we will present the advances of the Chinese space weather science missions, including the ASO-S (Advanced Space-borne Solar Observatory), MIT (Magnetosphere - Ionosphere- Thermosphere Coupling Exploration), and the ESA-China joint space weather science mission SMILE (Solar wind - Magnetosphere - Ionosphere Link Explore), a new mission to image the magnetosphere. Compared to satellites, ground-based monitors are cheap, convenient, and provide continuous real-time data. We will also introduce the Chinese Meridian Project (CMP), a ground-based program fully utilizing the geographic location of the Chinese landmass to monitor the geo-space environment. CMP is just one arm of a larger program that Chinese scientists are proposing to the international community. The International Meridian Circle Program (IMCP) for space weather hopes to connect chains of ground-based monitors at the longitudinal meridians 120 deg E and 60 deg W. IMCP takes advantage of the fact that these meridians already have the most monitors of any on Earth, with monitors in Russia, Australia, Brazil, the United States, Canada, and other countries. This data will greatly enhance the ability of scientists to monitor and predict the space weather worldwide.

Space Weather Research: Indian perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Bhardwaj, Anil; Pant, Tarun Kumar; Choudhary, R. K.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Manoharan, P. K.

2016-12-01

Space weather, just like its meteorological counterpart, is of extreme importance when it comes to its impact on terrestrial near- and far-space environments. In recent years, space weather research has acquired an important place as a thrust area of research having implications both in space science and technology. The presence of satellites and other technological systems from different nations in near-Earth space necessitates that one must have a comprehensive understanding not only of the origin and evolution of space weather processes but also of their impact on technology and terrestrial upper atmosphere. To address this aspect, nations across the globe including India have been investing in research concerning Sun, solar processes and their evolution from solar interior into the interplanetary space, and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In India, over the years, a substantial amount of work has been done in each of these areas by various agencies/institutions. In fact, India has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of space research and has ambitious future programs concerning these areas encompassing space weather. This review aims at providing a glimpse of this Indian perspective on space weather research to the reader and presenting an up-to-date status of the same.

Concept for an International Standard related to Space Weather Effects on Space Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Tobiska, W. Kent; Tomky, Alyssa

There is great interest in developing an international standard related to space weather in order to specify the tools and parameters needed for space systems operations. In particular, a standard is important for satellite operators who may not be familiar with space weather. In addition, there are others who participate in space systems operations that would also benefit from such a document. For example, the developers of software systems that provide LEO satellite orbit determination, radio communication availability for scintillation events (GEO-to-ground L and UHF bands), GPS uncertainties, and the radiation environment from ground-to-space for commercial space tourism. These groups require recent historical data, current epoch specification, and forecast of space weather events into their automated or manual systems. Other examples are national government agencies that rely on space weather data provided by their organizations such as those represented in the International Space Environment Service (ISES) group of 14 national agencies. Designers, manufacturers, and launchers of space systems require real-time, operational space weather parameters that can be measured, monitored, or built into automated systems. Thus, a broad scope for the document will provide a useful international standard product to a variety of engineering and science domains. The structure of the document should contain a well-defined scope, consensus space weather terms and definitions, and internationally accepted descriptions of the main elements of space weather, its sources, and its effects upon space systems. Appendices will be useful for describing expanded material such as guidelines on how to use the standard, how to obtain specific space weather parameters, and short but detailed descriptions such as when best to use some parameters and not others; appendices provide a path for easily updating the standard since the domain of space weather is rapidly changing with new advances

Community Coordinated Modeling Center: A Powerful Resource in Space Science and Space Weather Education

Science.gov (United States)

Chulaki, A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; MacNeice, P. J.; Shim, J. S.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Mendoza, A. M. M.; Zheng, Y.; Mullinix, R.; Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Maddox, M. M.; Pembroke, A. D.; Wiegand, C.

2015-12-01

Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a NASA affiliated interagency partnership with the primary goal of aiding the transition of modern space science models into space weather forecasting while supporting space science research. Additionally, over the past ten years it has established itself as a global space science education resource supporting undergraduate and graduate education and research, and spreading space weather awareness worldwide. A unique combination of assets, capabilities and close ties to the scientific and educational communities enable this small group to serve as a hub for raising generations of young space scientists and engineers. CCMC resources are publicly available online, providing unprecedented global access to the largest collection of modern space science models (developed by the international research community). CCMC has revolutionized the way simulations are utilized in classrooms settings, student projects, and scientific labs and serves hundreds of educators, students and researchers every year. Another major CCMC asset is an expert space weather prototyping team primarily serving NASA's interplanetary space weather needs. Capitalizing on its unrivaled capabilities and experiences, the team provides in-depth space weather training to students and professionals worldwide, and offers an amazing opportunity for undergraduates to engage in real-time space weather monitoring, analysis, forecasting and research. In-house development of state-of-the-art space weather tools and applications provides exciting opportunities to students majoring in computer science and computer engineering fields to intern with the software engineers at the CCMC while also learning about the space weather from the NASA scientists.

Adaptive Numerical Algorithms in Space Weather Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Toth, Gabor; vanderHolst, Bart; Sokolov, Igor V.; DeZeeuw, Darren; Gombosi, Tamas I.; Fang, Fang; Manchester, Ward B.; Meng, Xing; Nakib, Dalal; Powell, Kenneth G.;

Aurorasaurus Database of Real-Time, Soft-Sensor Sourced Aurora Data for Space Weather Research

Science.gov (United States)

Kosar, B.; MacDonald, E.; Heavner, M.

2017-12-01

Aurorasaurus is an innovative citizen science project focused on two fundamental objectives i.e., collecting real-time, ground-based signals of auroral visibility from citizen scientists (soft-sensors) and incorporating this new type of data into scientific investigations pertaining to aurora. The project has been live since the Fall of 2014, and as of Summer 2017, the database compiled approximately 12,000 observations (5295 direct reports and 6413 verified tweets). In this presentation, we will focus on demonstrating the utility of this robust science quality data for space weather research needs. These data scale with the size of the event and are well-suited to capture the largest, rarest events. Emerging state-of-the-art computational methods based on statistical inference such as machine learning frameworks and data-model integration methods can offer new insights that could potentially lead to better real-time assessment and space weather prediction when citizen science data are combined with traditional sources.

Geospace monitoring for space weather research and operation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nagatsuma Tsutomu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Geospace, a space surrounding the Earth, is one of the key area for space weather. Because geospace environment dynamically varies depending on the solar wind conditions. Many kinds of space assets are operating in geospace for practical purposes. Anomalies of space assets are sometimes happened because of space weather disturbances in geospace. Therefore, monitoring and forecasting of geospace environment is very important tasks for NICT's space weather research and development. To monitor and to improve forecasting model, fluxgate magnetometers and HF radars are operated by our laboratory, and its data are used for our research work, too. We also operate real-time data acquisition system for satellite data, such as DSCOVR, STEREO, and routinely received high energy particle data from Himawari-8. Based on these data, we are monitoring current condition of geomagnetic disturbances, and that of radiation belt. Using these data, we have developed empirical models for relativistic electron flux at GEO and inner magnetosphere. To provide userfriendly information , we are trying to develop individual spacecraft anomaly risk estimation tool based on combining models of space weather and those of spacecraft charging, Current status of geospace monitoring, forecasting, and research activities are introduced.

Geospace monitoring for space weather research and operation

Science.gov (United States)

Nagatsuma, Tsutomu

2017-10-01

Geospace, a space surrounding the Earth, is one of the key area for space weather. Because geospace environment dynamically varies depending on the solar wind conditions. Many kinds of space assets are operating in geospace for practical purposes. Anomalies of space assets are sometimes happened because of space weather disturbances in geospace. Therefore, monitoring and forecasting of geospace environment is very important tasks for NICT's space weather research and development. To monitor and to improve forecasting model, fluxgate magnetometers and HF radars are operated by our laboratory, and its data are used for our research work, too. We also operate real-time data acquisition system for satellite data, such as DSCOVR, STEREO, and routinely received high energy particle data from Himawari-8. Based on these data, we are monitoring current condition of geomagnetic disturbances, and that of radiation belt. Using these data, we have developed empirical models for relativistic electron flux at GEO and inner magnetosphere. To provide userfriendly information , we are trying to develop individual spacecraft anomaly risk estimation tool based on combining models of space weather and those of spacecraft charging, Current status of geospace monitoring, forecasting, and research activities are introduced.

Space Weather Monitoring for ISS Geomagnetic Storm Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Minow, Joseph I.; Parker, Linda Neergaard

2013-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) space environments community utilizes near real time space weather data to support a variety of ISS engineering and science activities. The team has operated the Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) suite of plasma instruments (two Langmuir probes, a floating potential probe, and a plasma impedance probe) on ISS since 2006 to obtain in-situ measurements of plasma density and temperature along the ISS orbit and variations in ISS frame potential due to electrostatic current collection from the plasma environment (spacecraft charging) and inductive (vxB) effects from the vehicle motion across the Earth s magnetic field. An ongoing effort is to use FPMU for measuring the ionospheric response to geomagnetic storms at ISS altitudes and investigate auroral charging of the vehicle as it passes through regions of precipitating auroral electrons. This work is challenged by restrictions on FPMU operations that limit observation time to less than about a third of a year. As a result, FPMU campaigns ranging in length from a few days to a few weeks are typically scheduled weeks in advance for ISS engineering and payload science activities. In order to capture geomagnetic storm data under these terms, we monitor near real time space weather data from NASA, NOAA, and ESA sources to determine solar wind disturbance arrival times at Earth likely to be geoeffective (including coronal mass ejections and high speed streams associated with coronal holes) and activate the FPMU ahead of the storm onset. Using this technique we have successfully captured FPMU data during a number of geomagnetic storm periods including periods with ISS auroral charging. This presentation will describe the strategies and challenges in capturing FPMU data during geomagnetic storms, the near real time space weather resources utilized for monitoring the space weather environment, and provide examples of auroral charging data obtained during storm operations.

Real Time Space Weather Support for Chandra X-ray Observatory Operations

Science.gov (United States)

O'Dell, S. L.; Miller, S.; Minow, J. I.; Wolk, S.; Aldcroft, T. L.; Spitzbart, B. D.; Swartz, D. A.

2012-12-01

NASA launched the Chandra X-ray Observatory in July 1999. Soon after first light in August 1999, however, degradation in the energy resolution and charge transfer efficiency of the Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer (ACIS) x-ray detectors was observed. The source of the degradation was quickly identified as radiation damage in the charge-transfer channel of the front-illuminated CCDs, by weakly penetrating ("soft", 100-500 keV) protons as Chandra passed through the Earth's radiation belts and ring currents. As soft protons were not considered a risk to spacecraft health before launch, the only on-board radiation monitoring system is the Electron, Proton, and Helium Instrument (EPHIN) which was included on Chandra with the primary purpose of monitoring energetic solar particle events. Further damage to the ACIS detector has been successfully mitigated through a combination of careful mission planning, autonomous on-board radiation protection, and manual intervention based upon real-time monitoring of the soft-proton environment. The AE-8 and AP-8 trapped radiation models and Chandra Radiation Models are used to schedule science operations in regions of low proton flux. EPHIN has been used as the primary autonomous in-situ radiation trigger; but, it is not sensitive to the soft protons that damage the front-illuminated CCDs. Monitoring of near-real-time space weather data sources provides critical information on the proton environment outside the Earth's magnetosphere due to solar proton events and other phenomena. The operations team uses data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) to provide near-real-time monitoring of the proton environment; however, these data do not give a representative measure of the soft-proton (real-time data provided by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. This presentation will discuss radiation mitigation against proton damage, including models and real-time data sources used to protect the ACIS detector

Space weather in the EU’s FP7 Space Theme

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chiarini Paola

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Technological infrastructures in space and on ground provide services on which modern society and economies rely. Space weather related research is funded under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (FP7 of the European Union in response to the need of protecting such critical infrastructures from the damage which could be caused by extreme space weather events. The calls for proposals published under the topic “Security of space assets from space weather events” of the FP7 Space Theme aimed to improve forecasts and predictions of disruptive space weather events as well as identify best practices to limit the impacts on space- and ground-based infrastructures and their data provision. Space weather related work was also funded under the topic “Exploitation of space science and exploration data”, which aims to add value to space missions and Earth-based observations by contributing to the effective scientific exploitation of collected data. Since 2007 a total of 20 collaborative projects have been funded, covering a variety of physical phenomena associated with space weather, from ionospheric disturbances and scintillation, to geomagnetically induced currents at Earth’s surface, to coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particles. This article provides an overview of the funded projects, touching upon some results and referring to specific websites for a more exhaustive description of the projects’ outcomes.

Looking toward to the next-generation space weather forecast system. Comments former a former space weather forecaster

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tomita, Fumihiko

1999-01-01

In the 21st century, man's space-based activities will increase significantly and many kinds of space utilization technologies will assume a vital role in the infrastructure, creating new businesses, securing the global environment, contributing much to human welfare in the world. Communications Research Laboratory (CRL) has been contributing to the safety of human activity in space and to the further understanding of the solar terrestrial environment through the study of space weather, including the upper atmosphere, magnetosphere, interplanetary space, and the sun. The next-generation Space Weather Integrated Monitoring System (SWIMS) for future space activities based on the present international space weather forecasting system is introduced in this paper. (author)

Arctic Region Space Weather Customers and SSA Services

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Høeg, Per; Kauristi, Kirsti; Wintoft, Peter

Arctic inhabitants, authorities, and companies rely strongly on precise localization information and communication covering vast areas with low infrastructure and population density. Thus modern technology is crucial for establishing knowledge that can lead to growth in the region. At the same time...... and communication can be established without errors resulting from Space Weather effects. An ESA project have identified and clarified, how the products of the four ESA Space Weather Expert Service Centres (SWE) in the ESA Space Situational Awareness Programme (SSA), can contribute to the requirements of SSA...

Future Missions for Space Weather Specifications and Forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Onsager, T. G.; Biesecker, D. A.; Anthes, R. A.; Maier, M. W.; Gallagher, F. W., III; St Germain, K.

2017-12-01

The progress of technology and the global integration of our economic and security infrastructures have introduced vulnerabilities to space weather that demand a more comprehensive ability to specify and to predict the dynamics of the space environment. This requires a comprehensive network of real-time space-based and ground-based observations with long-term continuity. In order to determine the most cost effective space architectures for NOAA's weather, space weather, and environmental missions, NOAA conducted the NOAA Satellite Observing System Architecture (NSOSA) study. This presentation will summarize the process used to document the future needs and the relative priorities for NOAA's operational space-based observations. This involves specifying the most important observations, defining the performance attributes at different levels of capability, and assigning priorities for achieving the higher capability levels. The highest priority observations recommended by the Space Platform Requirements Working Group (SPRWG) for improvement above a minimal capability level will be described. Finally, numerous possible satellite architectures have been explored to assess the costs and benefits of various architecture configurations.

Ionospheric Response to Extremes in the Space Environment: Establishing Benchmarks for the Space Weather Action Plan.

Science.gov (United States)

Viereck, R. A.; Azeem, S. I.

2017-12-01

One of the goals of the National Space Weather Action Plan is to establish extreme event benchmarks. These benchmarks are estimates of environmental parameters that impact technologies and systems during extreme space weather events. Quantitative assessment of anticipated conditions during these extreme space weather event will enable operators and users of affected technologies to develop plans for mitigating space weather risks and improve preparedness. The ionosphere is one of the most important regions of space because so many applications either depend on ionospheric space weather for their operation (HF communication, over-the-horizon radars), or can be deleteriously affected by ionospheric conditions (e.g. GNSS navigation and timing, UHF satellite communications, synthetic aperture radar, HF communications). Since the processes that influence the ionosphere vary over time scales from seconds to years, it continues to be a challenge to adequately predict its behavior in many circumstances. Estimates with large uncertainties, in excess of 100%, may result in operators of impacted technologies over or under preparing for such events. The goal of the next phase of the benchmarking activity is to reduce these uncertainties. In this presentation, we will focus on the sources of uncertainty in the ionospheric response to extreme geomagnetic storms. We will then discuss various research efforts required to better understand the underlying processes of ionospheric variability and how the uncertainties in ionospheric response to extreme space weather could be reduced and the estimates improved.

Space Weather Laboratory

Data.gov (United States)

Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Space Weather Computational Laboratory is a Unix and PC based modeling and simulation facility devoted to research analysis of naturally occurring electrically...

SPace weather applications in a technology-dependent society

Science.gov (United States)

Ngwira, C. M.

2017-12-01

Space weather can adversely key technology assets, such as, high-voltage electric power transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, and communications systems that are critical to national security and economy. However, the term of "space weather" is not well known in our society. This presentation will introduce key concepts related to the space weather problem and show how space weather impacts our everyday life. The goal is to promote awareness among the general public. Also, this presentation will highlight how space weather is being used to promote STEM education for community college students through the NASA internship program.

Vodcasting space weather: The Space Weather FX vodcast series

Science.gov (United States)

Collins Petersen, C.; Erickson, P. J.

2008-06-01

The topic of space weather is the subject of a series of nine vodcasts (video podcasts) being created by MIT Haystack Observatory (Westford, Massachusetts, USA) and Loch Ness Productions (Groton, Massachusetts, USA). This paper describes the project, its science and outreach goals, and introduces the principal participants.

Space Weather, Environment and Societies

CERN Document Server

Lilensten, Jean

2006-01-01

Our planet exists within a space environment affected by constantly changing solar atmosphere producing cosmic particles and electromagnetic waves. This "space weather" profoundly influences the performance of our technology because we primarily use two means for transmitting information and energy; namely, electromagnetic waves and electricity. On an everyday basis, we have developed methods to cope with the normal conditions. However, the sun remains a fiery star whose 'angry' outbursts can potentially destroy spacecrafts, kill astronauts, melt electricity transformers, stop trains, and generally wreak havoc with human activities. Space Weather is the developing field within astronomy that aims at predicting the sun’s violent activity and minimizing the impacts on our daily lives. Space Weather, Environment, and Societies explains why our technological societies are so dependent on solar activity and how the Sun disturbs the transmission of information and energy. Footnotes expand specific points and the ...

Space Weather Influence on the Earth wheat markets: past, present, and future.

Science.gov (United States)

Pustil'Nik, Lev

We consider problem of a possible influence of unfavorable states of the space weather on agriculture market through chain of connections: "space weather"-"earth weather"-"agriculture crops"-"price reaction". We show that new manifestations of "space weather"-"earth weather" relations discovered in the last time allow to revise wide field of expected solar-terrestrial connections. In the previous works we proposed possible mechanisms of wheat market reaction in the form of price bursts on the specific unfavorable states of space weather. We show that implementation of considered "price reaction scenarios" is possible only for condition of simultaneous realization of several necessary conditions: high sensitivity of local earth weather in selected region to space weather; state of "high risk agriculture" in selected agriculture zone; high sensitivity of agricultural market to possible deficit of supply. Results of previous works (I, II) included application of this approach to wheat market in Medieval England and to modern USA durum market showed that real connection between wheat price bursts and space weather state is observed with high confidence level. The aim of present work is answer on the question, why wheat markets in one region are sensitive to space weather factor, while another regional wheat markets demonstrate absolute indifferent reaction on this factor. For this aim we consider distribution of sensitivity of wheat markets in Europe to space weather as function of localization in different climatic zones. We analyze giant database of 95 European wheat markets from 14 countries during about 600-year period (1260-1912). We show that observed sensitivity of wheat market to space weather effects controlled, first of all, by type of predominant climate in different zones of agriculture. Wheat markets in the North and part of Central Europe (England, Iceland, Holland) shows reliable sensitivity to space weather in minimum states of solar activity with low

A new technique for observationally derived boundary conditions for space weather

Science.gov (United States)

Pagano, Paolo; Mackay, Duncan Hendry; Yeates, Anthony Robinson

2018-04-01

Context. In recent years, space weather research has focused on developing modelling techniques to predict the arrival time and properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the Earth. The aim of this paper is to propose a new modelling technique suitable for the next generation of Space Weather predictive tools that is both efficient and accurate. The aim of the new approach is to provide interplanetary space weather forecasting models with accurate time dependent boundary conditions of erupting magnetic flux ropes in the upper solar corona. Methods: To produce boundary conditions, we couple two different modelling techniques, MHD simulations and a quasi-static non-potential evolution model. Both are applied on a spatial domain that covers the entire solar surface, although they extend over a different radial distance. The non-potential model uses a time series of observed synoptic magnetograms to drive the non-potential quasi-static evolution of the coronal magnetic field. This allows us to follow the formation and loss of equilibrium of magnetic flux ropes. Following this a MHD simulation captures the dynamic evolution of the erupting flux rope, when it is ejected into interplanetary space. Results.The present paper focuses on the MHD simulations that follow the ejection of magnetic flux ropes to 4 R⊙. We first propose a technique for specifying the pre-eruptive plasma properties in the corona. Next, time dependent MHD simulations describe the ejection of two magnetic flux ropes, that produce time dependent boundary conditions for the magnetic field and plasma at 4 R⊙ that in future may be applied to interplanetary space weather prediction models. Conclusions: In the present paper, we show that the dual use of quasi-static non-potential magnetic field simulations and full time dependent MHD simulations can produce realistic inhomogeneous boundary conditions for space weather forecasting tools. Before a fully operational model can be produced there are a

Space Weather Products

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Collection includes a variety of space weather datasets from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and from the World Data Service for Geophysics,...

Space Weather Monitoring for ISS Space Environments Engineering and Crew Auroral Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Minow, Joseph I.; Pettit, Donald R.; Hartman, William A.

2012-01-01

The awareness of potentially significant impacts of space weather on spaceand ground ]based technological systems has generated a strong desire in many sectors of government and industry to effectively transform knowledge and understanding of the variable space environment into useful tools and applications for use by those entities responsible for systems that may be vulnerable to space weather impacts. Essentially, effectively transitioning science knowledge to useful applications relevant to space weather has become important. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective, and how in the current environment those can be applied to space weather transition efforts.

Space Weather Studies at Istanbul Technical University

Science.gov (United States)

Kaymaz, Zerefsan

2016-07-01

This presentation will introduce the Upper Atmosphere and Space Weather Laboratory of Istanbul Technical University (ITU). It has been established to support the educational needs of the Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics in 2011 to conduct scientific research in Space Weather, Space Environment, Space Environment-Spacecraft Interactions, Space instrumentation and Upper Atmospheric studies. Currently the laboratory has some essential infrastructure and the most instrumentation for ionospheric observations and ground induced currents from the magnetosphere. The laboratory has two subunits: SWIFT dealing with Space Weather Instrumentation and Forecasting unit and SWDPA dealing with Space Weather Data Processing and Analysis. The research area covers wide range of upper atmospheric and space science studies from ionosphere, ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling, magnetic storms and magnetospheric substorms, distant magnetotail, magnetopause and bow shock studies, as well as solar and solar wind disturbances and their interaction with the Earth's space environment. We also study the spacecraft environment interaction and novel plasma instrument design. Several scientific projects have been carried out in the laboratory. Operational objectives of our laboratory will be carried out with the collaboration of NASA's Space Weather Laboratory and the facilities are in the process of integration to their prediction services. Educational and research objectives, as well as the examples from the research carried out in our laboratory will be demonstrated in this presentation.

Successfully Transitioning Science Research to Space Weather Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Spann, James

2012-01-01

The awareness of potentially significant impacts of space weather on spaceand ground ]based technological systems has generated a strong desire in many sectors of government and industry to effectively transform knowledge and understanding of the variable space environment into useful tools and applications for use by those entities responsible for systems that may be vulnerable to space weather impacts. Essentially, effectively transitioning science knowledge to useful applications relevant to space weather has become important. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective, and how in the current environment those can be applied to space weather transition efforts.

Space Weather Influence on the Earth Climate: Possible Manifestations in Wheat Markets Reaction

Science.gov (United States)

Pustilnik, Lev; Yom Din, Gregory; Zagnetko, Alexander

We consider problem of a possible influence of unfavorable states of the space weather on agri-culture market through chain of connections: "space weather"-"earth weather"-"agriculture crops"-"price reaction". We show that new manifestations of "space weather"-"earth weather" relations discovered in the last time allow to revise wide field of expected solar-terrestrial con-nections. In the previous works we proposed possible mechanisms of wheat market reaction in the form of price bursts on the specific unfavorable states of space weather. We show that implementation of considered "price reaction scenarios" is possible only for condition of simul-taneous realization of several necessary conditions: high sensitivity of local earth weather in selected region to space weather; state of "high risk agriculture" in selected agriculture zone; high sensitivity of agricultural market to possible deficit of supply. Results of previous works included application of this approach to wheat market in Medieval England and to modern USA durum market showed that real connection between wheat price bursts and space weather state is observed with high confidence level. The aim of present work is answer on the ques-tion, why wheat markets in one region are sensitive to space weather factor, while another regional wheat markets demonstrate absolute indifferent reaction on this factor. For this aim we consider distribution of sensitivity of wheat markets in Europe to space weather as function of localization in different climatic zones. We analyze giant database of 95 European wheat markets from 14 countries during about 600-year period (1260-1912). We show that observed sensitivity of wheat market to space weather effects controlled, first of all, by type of predomi-nant climate in different zones of agriculture. Wheat markets in the North and part of Central Europe (England, Iceland, Holland) shows reliable sensitivity to space weather in minimum states of solar activity with low

Mitigating Aviation Communication and Satellite Orbit Operations Surprises from Adverse Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Tobiska, W. Kent

2008-01-01

Adverse space weather affects operational activities in aviation and satellite systems. For example, large solar flares create highly variable enhanced neutral atmosphere and ionosphere electron density regions. These regions impact aviation communication frequencies as well as precision orbit determination. The natural space environment, with its dynamic space weather variability, is additionally changed by human activity. The increase in orbital debris in low Earth orbit (LEO), combined with lower atmosphere CO2 that rises into the lower thermosphere and causes increased cooling that results in increased debris lifetime, adds to the environmental hazards of navigating in near-Earth space. This is at a time when commercial space endeavors are posed to begin more missions to LEO during the rise of the solar activity cycle toward the next maximum (2012). For satellite and aviation operators, adverse space weather results in greater expenses for orbit management, more communication outages or aviation and ground-based high frequency radio used, and an inability to effectively plan missions or service customers with space-based communication, imagery, and data transferal during time-critical activities. Examples of some revenue-impacting conditions and solutions for mitigating adverse space weather are offered.

Space Weather Effects Produced by the Ring Current Particles

Science.gov (United States)

Ganushkina, Natalia; Jaynes, Allison; Liemohn, Michael

2017-11-01

One of the definitions of space weather describes it as the time-varying space environment that may be hazardous to technological systems in space and/or on the ground and/or endanger human health or life. The ring current has its contributions to space weather effects, both in terms of particles, ions and electrons, which constitute it, and magnetic and electric fields produced and modified by it at the ground and in space. We address the main aspects of the space weather effects from the ring current starting with brief review of ring current discovery and physical processes and the Dst-index and predictions of the ring current and storm occurrence based on it. Special attention is paid to the effects on satellites produced by the ring current electrons. The ring current is responsible for several processes in the other inner magnetosphere populations, such as the plasmasphere and radiation belts which is also described. Finally, we discuss the ring current influence on the ionosphere and the generation of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC).

Communicating space weather to policymakers and the wider public

Science.gov (United States)

Ferreira, Bárbara

2014-05-01

As a natural hazard, space weather has the potential to affect space- and ground-based technological systems and cause harm to human health. As such, it is important to properly communicate this topic to policymakers and the general public alike, informing them (without being unnecessarily alarmist) about the potential impact of space-weather phenomena and how these can be monitored and mitigated. On the other hand, space weather is related to interesting phenomena on the Sun such as coronal-mass ejections, and incorporates one of the most beautiful displays in the Earth and its nearby space environment: aurora. These exciting and fascinating aspects of space weather should be cultivated when communicating this topic to the wider public, particularly to younger audiences. Researchers have a key role to play in communicating space weather to both policymakers and the wider public. Space scientists should have an active role in informing policy decisions on space-weather monitoring and forecasting, for example. And they can exercise their communication skills by talking about space weather to school children and the public in general. This presentation will focus on ways to communicate space weather to wider audiences, particularly policymakers. It will also address the role researchers can play in this activity to help bridge the gap between the space science community and the public.

Space Weather: Where Is The Beef?

Science.gov (United States)

Koskinen, H. E. J.

Space weather has become a highly fashionable topic in solar-terrestrial physics. It is perhaps the best tool to popularise the field and it has contributed significantly to the dialogue between solar, magnetospheric, and ionospheric scientist, and also to mu- tual understanding between science and engineering communities. While these are laudable achievements, it is important for the integrity of scientific space weather re- search to recognise the central open questions in the physics of space weather and the progress toward solving them. We still lack sufficient understanding of the solar physics to be able to tell in advance when and where a solar eruption will take place and whether it will turn to a geoeffective event. There is much to do to understand ac- celeration of solar energetic particles and propagation of solar mass ejecta toward the Earth. After more than 40 years of research scientific discussion of energy and plasma transfer through the magnetopause still deals mostly with qualitative issues and the rapid acceleration processes in the magnetosphere are not yet explained in a satisfac- tory way. Also the coupling to the ionosphere and from there to the strong induction effects on ground is another complex of research problems. For space weather science the beef is in the investigation of these and related topics, not in marketing half-useful space weather products to hesitant customers.

Discover Space Weather and Sun's Superpowers: Using CCMC's innovative tools and applications

Science.gov (United States)

Mendoza, A. M. M.; Maddox, M. M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Chulaki, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Mullinix, R.; Weigand, C.; Boblitt, J.; Taktakishvili, A.; MacNeice, P. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Pembroke, A. D.; Mays, M. L.; Zheng, Y.; Shim, J. S.

2015-12-01

Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has developed a comprehensive set of tools and applications that are directly applicable to space weather and space science education. These tools, some of which were developed by our student interns, are capable of serving a wide range of student audiences, from middle school to postgraduate research. They include a web-based point of access to sophisticated space physics models and visualizations, and a powerful space weather information dissemination system, available on the web and as a mobile app. In this demonstration, we will use CCMC's innovative tools to engage the audience in real-time space weather analysis and forecasting and will share some of our interns' hands-on experiences while being trained as junior space weather forecasters. The main portals to CCMC's educational material are ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov and iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov

Space weather and power grids: findings and outlook

Science.gov (United States)

Krausmann, Elisabeth; Andersson, Emmelie; Murtagh, William; Mitchison, Neil

2014-05-01

The impact of space weather on the power grid is a tangible and recurring threat with potentially serious consequences on society. Of particular concern is the long-distance high-voltage power grid, which is vulnerable to the effects of geomagnetic storms that can damage or destroy equipment or lead to grid collapse. In order to launch a dialogue on the topic and encourage authorities, regulators and operators in European countries and North America to learn from each other, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, and NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Centre, with the contribution of the UK Civil Contingencies Secretariat, jointly organised a workshop on the impact of extreme space weather on the power grid on 29-30 October 2013. Being structured into 6 sessions, the topics addressed were space-weather phenomena and the dynamics of their impact on the grid, experiences with prediction and now-casting in the USA and in Europe, risk assessment and preparedness, as well as policy implications arising from increased awareness of the space-weather hazard. The main workshop conclusions are: • There is increasing awareness of the risk of space-weather impact among power-grid operators and regulators and some countries consider it a priority risk to be addressed. • The predictability of space-weather phenomena is still limited and relies, in part, on data from ageing satellites. NOAA is working with NASA to launch the DSCOVR solar wind spacecraft, the replacement for the ACE satellite, in early 2015. • In some countries, models and tools for GIC prediction and grid impact assessment have been developed in collaboration with national power grids but equipment vulnerability models are scarce. • Some countries have successfully hardened their transmission grids to space-weather impact and sustained relatively little or no damage due to currents induced by past moderate space-weather events. • While there is preparedness

Geodetic Space Weather Monitoring by means of Ionosphere Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Michael

2017-04-01

modelling the ionosphere and detecting and forecasting its disturbances. At present a couple of nations, such as the US, UK, Japan, Canada and China, are taken the threats from extreme space weather events seriously and support the development of observing strategies and fundamental research. However, (extreme) space weather events are in all their consequences on the modern highly technologized society, causative global problems which have to be treated globally and not regionally or even nationally. Consequently, space weather monitoring must include (1) all space-geodetic observation techniques and (2) geodetic evaluation methods such as data combination, real-time modelling and forecast. In other words, geodetic space weather monitoring comprises the basic ideas of GGOS and will provide products such as forecasts of severe solar events in order to initiate necessary activities to protect the infrastructure of modern society.

Third Space Weather Summit Held for Industry and Government Agencies

Science.gov (United States)

Intriligator, Devrie S.

2009-12-01

The potential for space weather effects has been increasing significantly in recent years. For instance, in 2008 airlines flew about 8000 transpolar flights, which experience greater exposure to space weather than nontranspolar flights. This is up from 368 transpolar flights in 2000, and the number of such flights is expected to continue to grow. Transpolar flights are just one example of the diverse technologies susceptible to space weather effects identified by the National Research Council's Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report (2008). To discuss issues related to the increasing need for reliable space weather information, experts from industry and government agencies met at the third summit of the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group (CSWIG) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), held 30 April 2009 during Space Weather Week (SWW), in Boulder, Colo.

Space weather effects on ground based technology

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, T.

Space weather can affect a variety of forms of ground-based technology, usually as a result of either the direct effects of the varying geomagnetic field, or as a result of the induced electric field that accompanies such variations. Technologies affected directly by geomagnetic variations include magnetic measurements made d ringu geophysical surveys, and navigation relying on the geomagnetic field as a direction reference, a method that is particularly common in the surveying of well-bores in the oil industry. The most obvious technology affected by induced electric fields during magnetic storms is electric power transmission, where the example of the blackout in Quebec during the March 1989 magnetic storm is widely known. Additionally, space weather effects must be taken into account in the design of active cathodic protection systems on pipelines to protect them against corrosion. Long-distance telecommunication cables may also have to be designed to cope with space weather related effects. This paper reviews the effects of space weather in these different areas of ground-based technology, and provides examples of how mitigation against hazards may be achieved. (The paper does not include the effects of space weather on radio communication or satellite navigation systems).

The Origin of the "Seasons" in Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Dikpati, Mausumi; Cally, Paul S.; McIntosh, Scott W.; Heifetz, Eyal

2017-11-01

Powerful `space weather' events caused by solar activity pose serious risks to human health, safety, economic activity and national security. Spikes in deaths due to heart attacks, strokes and other diseases occurred during prolonged power outages. Currently it is hard to prepare for and mitigate the impact of space weather because it is impossible to forecast the solar eruptions that can cause these terrestrial events until they are seen on the Sun. However, as recently reported in Nature, eruptive events like coronal mass ejections and solar flares, are organized into quasi-periodic "seasons", which include enhanced bursts of eruptions for several months, followed by quiet periods. We explored the dynamics of sunspot-producing magnetic fields and discovered for the first time that bursty and quiet seasons, manifested in surface magnetic structures, can be caused by quasi-periodic energy-exchange among magnetic fields, Rossby waves and differential rotation of the solar interior shear-layer (called tachocline). Our results for the first time provide a quantitative physical mechanism for forecasting the strength and duration of bursty seasons several months in advance, which can greatly enhance our ability to warn humans about dangerous solar bursts and prevent damage to satellites and power stations from space weather events.

Space weather effects measured in atmospheric radiation on aircraft

Science.gov (United States)

Tobiska, W. K.; Bouwer, D.; Bailey, J. J.; Didkovsky, L. V.; Judge, K.; Wieman, S. R.; Atwell, W.; Gersey, B.; Wilkins, R.; Rice, D.; Schunk, R. W.; Bell, L. D.; Mertens, C. J.; Xu, X.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Wiley, S.; Teets, E.; Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.; Jones, J. B. L.; Crowley, G.; Azeem, S. I.; Halford, A. J.

2016-12-01

Space weather's effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. Of the domains that are affected by space weather, the coupling between the solar and galactic high-energy particles, the magnetosphere, and atmospheric regions can significantly affect humans and our technology as a result of radiation exposure. Since 2013 Space Environment Technologies (SET) has been conducting observations of the atmospheric radiation environment at aviation altitudes using a small fleet of six instruments. The objective of this work is to improve radiation risk management in air traffic operations. Under the auspices of the Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) and Upper-atmospheric Space and Earth Weather eXperiment (USEWX) projects our team is making dose rate measurements on multiple aircraft flying global routes. Over 174 ARMAS and USEWX flights have successfully demonstrated the operation of a micro dosimeter on commercial aviation altitude aircraft that captures the radiation environment resulting from Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs), Solar Energetic Protons (SEPs), and outer radiation belt energetic electrons. The real-time radiation exposure is measured as an absorbed dose rate in silicon and then computed as an ambient dose equivalent rate for reporting dose relevant to radiative-sensitive organs and tissue in units of microsieverts per hour. ARMAS total ionizing absorbed dose is captured on the aircraft, downlinked in real-time, processed on the ground into ambient dose equivalent rates, compared with NASA's Langley Research Center (LaRC) most recent Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS) global radiation climatology model runs, and then made available to end users. Dose rates from flight altitudes up to 56,700 ft. are shown for flights across the planet under a variety of space weather conditions. We discuss several space weather

National Space Weather Program Advances on Several Fronts

Science.gov (United States)

Gunzelman, Mark; Babcock, Michael

2008-10-01

The National Space Weather Program (NSWP; http://www.nswp.gov) is a U.S. federal government interagency initiative through the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology that was created to speed the improvement of space weather services for the nation. The Committee for Space Weather (CSW) under the NSWP has continued to advance the program on a number of fronts over the past 12 months.

Presenting Critical Space Weather Information to Customers and Stakeholders (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Viereck, R. A.; Singer, H. J.; Murtagh, W. J.; Rutledge, B.

2013-12-01

Space weather involves changes in the near-Earth space environment that impact technological systems such as electric power, radio communication, satellite navigation (GPS), and satellite opeartions. As with terrestrial weather, there are several different kinds of space weather and each presents unique challenges to the impacted technologies and industries. But unlike terrestrial weather, many customers are not fully aware of space weather or how it impacts their systems. This issue is further complicated by the fact that the largest space weather events occur very infrequently with years going by without severe storms. Recent reports have estimated very large potential costs to the economy and to society if a geomagnetic storm were to cause major damage to the electric power transmission system. This issue has come to the attention of emergency managers and federal agencies including the office of the president. However, when considering space weather impacts, it is essential to also consider uncertainties in the frequency of events and the predicted impacts. The unique nature of space weather storms, the specialized technologies that are impacted by them, and the disparate groups and agencies that respond to space weather forecasts and alerts create many challenges to the task of communicating space weather information to the public. Many customers that receive forecasts and alerts are highly technical and knowledgeable about the subtleties of the space environment. Others know very little and require ongoing education and explanation about how a space weather storm will affect their systems. In addition, the current knowledge and understanding of the space environment that goes into forecasting storms is quite immature. It has only been within the last five years that physics-based models of the space environment have played important roles in predictions. Thus, the uncertainties in the forecasts are quite large. There is much that we don't know about space

Aurorasaurus: Citizen Scientists Experiencing Extremes of Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

MacDonald, E.; Hall, M.; Tapia, A.

2013-12-01

Aurorasaurus is a new citizen science mapping platform to nowcast the visibility of the Northern Lights for the public in the current solar maximum, the first with social media. As a recently funded NSF INSPIRE program, we have joint goals among three research disciplines: space weather forecasting, the study of human-computer interactions, and informal science education. We will highlight results from the prototype www.aurorasaurus.org and outline future efforts to motivate online participants and crowdsource viable data. Our citizen science effort is unique among space programs as it includes both reporting observations and data analysis activities to engage the broadest participant network possible. In addition, our efforts to improve space weather nowcasting by including real-time mapping of ground truth observers for rare, sporadic events are a first in the field.

Comparative Science and Space Weather Around the Heliosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Grande, Manuel; Andre, Nicolas; COSPAR/ILWS Roadmap Team

2016-10-01

Space weather refers to the variable state of the coupled space environment related to changing conditions on the Sun and in the terrestrial atmosphere. The presentation will focus on the critical missing knowledge or observables needed to significantly advance our modelling and forecasting capabilities throughout the solar system putting these in perspective to the recommendations in the recent COSPAR/ILWS roadmap. The COSPAR/ILWS RoadMap focuses on high-priority challenges in key areas of research leading to a better understanding of the space environment and a demonstrable improvement in the provision of timely, reliable information pertinent to effects on civilian space- and ground-based systems, for all stakeholders around the world. The RoadMap prioritizes those advances that can be made on short, intermediate and decadal time scales, identifying gaps and opportunities from a predominantly, but not exclusively, geocentric perspective. While discussion of space weather effects has so far largely been concerned to the near-Earth environment, there are significant present and future applications to the locations beyond, and to other planets. Most obviously, perhaps, are the radiation hazards experienced by astronauts on the way to, and on the surface of, the Moon and Mars. Indeed, the environment experienced by planetary spacecraft in transit and at their destinations is of course critical to their design and successful operation. The case of forthcoming missions to Jupiter and Europa is an extreme example. Moreover, such craft can provide information which in turn increases our understanding of geospace. One initiative is that under Horizon 2020, Europlanet RI will set up a Europlanet Planetary Space Weather Service (PSWS). PSWS will make five entirely new `toolkits' accessible to the research community and to industrial partners planning for space missions: - a General planetary space weather toolkit; Mars (in support of the ESA ExoMars missions to be launched

The new Athens Center applied to Space Weather Forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mavromichalaki, H.; Sarlanis, C.; Souvatzoglou, G.; Mariatos, G.; Gerontidou, M.; Plainaki, C.; Papaioannou, A.; Tatsis, S.; Belov, A.; Eroshenko, E.; Yanke, V.

2006-01-01

The Sun provides most of the initial energy driving space weather and modulates the energy input from sources outside the solar system, but this energy undergoes many transformations within the various components of the solar-terrestrial system, which is comprised of the solar wind, magnetosphere and radiation belts, the ionosphere, and the upper and lower atmospheres of Earth. This is the reason why an Earth's based neutron monitor network can be used in order to produce a real time forecasting of space weather phenomena.Since 2004 a fully functioned new data analysis Center in real-time is in operation in Neutron Monitor Station of Athens University (ANMODAP Center) suitable for research applications. It provides a multi sided use of twenty three neutron monitor stations distributing in all world and operating in real-time given crucial information on space weather phenomena. In particular, the ANMODAP Center can give a preliminary alert of ground level enhancements (GLEs) of solar cosmic rays which can be registered around 20 to 30 minutes before the main part of lower energy particles. Therefore these energetic solar cosmic rays provide the advantage of forth warning. Moreover, the monitoring of the precursors of cosmic rays gives a forehand estimate on that kind of events should be expected (geomagnetic storms and/or Forbush decreases)

The sun and space weather Second Edition

CERN Document Server

Hanslmeier, Arnold

2007-01-01

This second edition is a great enhancement of literature which will help the reader get deeper into the specific topics. There are new sections included such as space weather data sources and examples, new satellite missions, and the latest results. At the end a comprehensive index is given which will allow the reader to quickly find his topics of interest. The Sun and Space weather are two rapidly evolving topics. The importance of the Sun for the Earth, life on Earth, climate and weather processes was recognized long ago by the ancients. Now, for the first time there is a continuous surveillance of solar activity at nearly all wavelengths. These data can be used to improve our understanding of the complex Sun-Earth interaction. The first chapters of the book deal with the Sun as a star and its activity phenomena as well as its activity cycle in order to understand the complex physics of the Sun-Earth system. The reader will see that there are many phenomena but still no definite explanations and models exis...

On the Nature of People's Reaction to Space Weather and Meteorological Weather Changes

Science.gov (United States)

Khabarova, O. V.; Dimitrova, S.

2009-12-01

Our environment includes many natural and artificial agents affecting any person on the Earth in one way or other. This work is focused on two of them - weather and space weather, which are permanently effective. Their cumulative effect is proved by means of the modeling. It is shown that combination of geomagnetic and solar indices and weather strength parameter (which includes six main meteorological parameters) correlates with health state significantly better (up to R=0.7), than separate environmental parameters do. The typical shape of any health characteristics' time-series during human body reaction to any negative impact represents a curve, well-known in medicine as a General Adaptation Syndrome curve by Hans Selye. We demonstrate this on the base of blood pressure time-series and acupunctural experiment data, averaged by group. The first stage of adaptive stress-reaction (resistance to stress) is sometimes observed 1-2 days before geomagnetic storm onset. The effect of "outstripping reaction to magnetic storm", named Tchizhevsky- Velkhover effect, had been known for many years, but its explanation was obtained recently due to the consideration of the near-Earth space plasma processes. It was shown that lowfrequency variations of the solar wind density on a background of the density growth can stimulate the development of the geomagnetic filed (GMF) variations of the wide frequency range. These variations seem to have "bioeffective frequencies", resonant with own frequencies of body organs and systems. The mechanism of human body reaction is supposed to be a parametrical resonance in low-frequency range (which is determined by the resonance in large-scale organs and systems) and a simple forced resonance in GHz-range of variations (the resonance of micro-objects in the organism such as DNA, cell membranes, blood ions etc.) Given examples of mass-reaction of the objects to ULF-range GMF variations during quiet space weather time prove this hypothesis.

Recent Activities on the Embrace Space Weather Regional Warning Center: the New Space Weather Data Center

Science.gov (United States)

Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dal Lago, Alisson; Mendes, Odim; Batista, Inez S.; SantAnna, Nilson; Gatto, Rubens; Takahashi, Hisao; Costa, D. Joaquim; Banik Padua, Marcelo; Campos Velho, Haroldo

2016-07-01

On August 2007 the National Institute for Space Research started a task force to develop and operate a space weather program, which is known by the acronyms Embrace that stands for the Portuguese statement "Estudo e Monitoramento BRAasileiro de Clima Espacial" Program (Brazilian Space Weather Study and Monitoring program). The mission of the Embrace/INPE program is to monitor the Solar-Terrestrial environment, the magnetosphere, the upper atmosphere and the ground induced currents to prevent effects on technological and economic activities. The Embrace/INPE system monitors the physical parameters of the Sun-Earth environment, such as Active Regions (AR) in the Sun and solar radiation by using radio telescope, Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) information by satellite and ground-based cosmic ray monitoring, geomagnetic activity by the magnetometer network, and ionospheric disturbance by ionospheric sounders and using data collected by four GPS receiver network, geomagnetic activity by a magnetometer network, and provides a forecasting for Total Electronic Content (TEC) - 24 hours ahead - using a version of the SUPIM model which assimilates the two latter data using nudging approach. Most of these physical parameters are daily published on the Brazilian space weather program web portal, related to the entire network sensors available. Regarding outreach, it has being published a daily bulletin in Portuguese and English with the status of the space weather environment on the Sun, the Interplanetary Medium and close to the Earth. Since December 2011, all these activities are carried out at the Embrace Headquarter, a building located at the INPE's main campus. Recently, a comprehensive data bank and an interface layer are under commissioning to allow an easy and direct access to all the space weather data collected by Embrace through the Embrace web Portal. The information being released encompasses data from: (a) the Embrace Digisonde Network (Embrace DigiNet) that monitors

Space Weather Forecasting and Supporting Research in the USA

Science.gov (United States)

Pevtsov, A. A.

2017-12-01

In the United State, scientific research in space weather is funded by several Government Agencies including the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA). For civilian and commercial purposes, space weather forecast is done by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Observational data for modeling come from the network of groundbased observatories funded via various sources, as well as from the instruments on spacecraft. Numerical models used in forecast are developed in framework of individual research projects. The article provides a brief review of current state of space weather-related research and forecasting in the USA.

The ESA Space Weather Applications Pilot Project

Science.gov (United States)

Glover, A.; Hilgers, A.; Daly, E.

Following the completion in 2001 of two parallel studies to consider the feasibility of a European Space Weather Programme ESA embarked upon a space weather pilot study with the goal of prototyping European space weather services and assessing the overall market for such within Europe This pilot project centred on a number of targeted service development activities supported by a common infrastructure and making use of only existing space weather assets Each service activity included clear participation from at least one identified service user who was requested to provide initial requirements and regular feedback during the operational phase of the service These service activities are now reaching the end of their 2-year development and testing phase and are now accessible each with an element of the service in the public domain see http www esa-spaceweathet net swenet An additional crucial element of the study was the inclusion of a comprehensive and independent analysis of the benefits both economic and strategic of embarking on a programme which would include the deployment of an infrastructure with space-based elements The results of this study will be reported together with their implication for future coordinated European activities in this field

Achievements and Challenges in the Science of Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Koskinen, Hannu E. J.; Baker, Daniel N.; Balogh, André; Gombosi, Tamas; Veronig, Astrid; von Steiger, Rudolf

2017-11-01

In June 2016 a group of 40 space weather scientists attended the workshop on Scientific Foundations of Space Weather at the International Space Science Institute in Bern. In this lead article to the volume based on the talks and discussions during the workshop we review some of main past achievements in the field and outline some of the challenges that the science of space weather is facing today and in the future.

Dynamical Networks Characterization of Space Weather Events

Science.gov (United States)

Orr, L.; Chapman, S. C.; Dods, J.; Gjerloev, J. W.

2017-12-01

Space weather can cause disturbances to satellite systems, impacting navigation technology and telecommunications; it can cause power loss and aviation disruption. A central aspect of the earth's magnetospheric response to space weather events are large scale and rapid changes in ionospheric current patterns. Space weather is highly dynamic and there are still many controversies about how the current system evolves in time. The recent SuperMAG initiative, collates ground-based vector magnetic field time series from over 200 magnetometers with 1-minute temporal resolution. In principle this combined dataset is an ideal candidate for quantification using dynamical networks. Network properties and parameters allow us to characterize the time dynamics of the full spatiotemporal pattern of the ionospheric current system. However, applying network methodologies to physical data presents new challenges. We establish whether a given pair of magnetometers are connected in the network by calculating their canonical cross correlation. The magnetometers are connected if their cross correlation exceeds a threshold. In our physical time series this threshold needs to be both station specific, as it varies with (non-linear) individual station sensitivity and location, and able to vary with season, which affects ground conductivity. Additionally, the earth rotates and therefore the ground stations move significantly on the timescales of geomagnetic disturbances. The magnetometers are non-uniformly spatially distributed. We will present new methodology which addresses these problems and in particular achieves dynamic normalization of the physical time series in order to form the network. Correlated disturbances across the magnetometers capture transient currents. Once the dynamical network has been obtained [1][2] from the full magnetometer data set it can be used to directly identify detailed inferred transient ionospheric current patterns and track their dynamics. We will show

NASA Dryden Flight Research Center's Space Weather Needs

Science.gov (United States)

Wiley, Scott

2011-01-01

Presentation involves educating Goddard Space Weather staff about what our needs are, what type of aircraft we have and to learn what we have done in the past to minimize our exposure to Space Weather Hazards.

Stronger Collaborations Needed for Successful Space Weather Research

Science.gov (United States)

Akasofu, Syun-Ichi

2007-12-01

One of the purposes of space weather research is to predict when and how the electromagnetic environment around the Earth will be disturbed after specific (solar storms,) which are defined here as various transient solar phenomena that occur at the time of solar flares [Akasofu and Chapman, 1972]. Accurate space weather predictions require an integrating and synthesizing research effort by a close collaboration among solar physicists, interplanetary physicists, magnetospheric physicists, and upper atmosphere physicists. Unfortunately, such integration/synthesis (I/S) projects in the past have often become an umbrella under which individual researchers in the four disciplines pursue only subjects of their own interests, disintegrate into individual projects, and even encourage the trend of infinite specialization because of the potential availability of additional funds.

An abridged history of federal involvement in space weather forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Caldwell, Becaja; McCarron, Eoin; Jonas, Seth

2017-10-01

Public awareness of space weather and its adverse effects on critical infrastructure systems, services, and technologies (e.g., the electric grid, telecommunications, and satellites) has grown through recent media coverage and scientific research. However, federal interest and involvement in space weather dates back to the decades between World War I and World War II when the National Bureau of Standards led efforts to observe, forecast, and provide warnings of space weather events that could interfere with high-frequency radio transmissions. The efforts to observe and predict space weather continued through the 1960s during the rise of the Cold War and into the present with U.S. government efforts to prepare the nation for space weather events. This paper provides a brief overview of the history of federal involvement in space weather forecasting from World War II, through the Apollo Program, and into the present.

GOES-R Space Weather Data: Achieving User Ready Products

Science.gov (United States)

Rowland, W. F.; Tilton, M.; Redmon, R. J.; Goodman, S. J.; Comerford, M.

2017-12-01

Forecasters and the science community will rely on improved Space Weather products from the next generation of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R Series) for decades to come. Many issues must be successfully addressed in order to produce useful products. The instruments themselves and their basic scientific measurements (Level 1b data, i.e. L1b) must be calibrated and validated. Algorithms must be created to transform L1b into the specific environmental parameters that are of interest to forecasters and the community (Level 2+, i.e. L2+). In the case of Space Weather data, because the L2+ products are not generated within the core GOES-R Ground Segment, a separate system had to be developed in order to implement the L2+ products. Finally, the products must be made available to real time and retrospective users, as well as preserved for future generations. We give an overview of the path to production of the GOES-R Space Weather products, and the role of the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) in this process.

Optimized Strategies for Detecting Extrasolar Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Hallinan, Gregg

2018-06-01

Fully understanding the implications of space weather for the young solar system, as well as the wider population of planet-hosting stars, requires remote sensing of space weather in other stellar systems. Solar coronal mass ejections can be accompanied by bright radio bursts at low frequencies (typically measurement of the magnetic field strength of the planet, informing on whether the atmosphere of the planet can survive the intense magnetic activity of its host star. However, both stellar and planetary radio emission are highly variable and optimal strategies for detection of these emissions requires the capability to monitor 1000s of nearby stellar/planetary systems simultaneously. I will discuss optimized strategies for both ground and space-based experiments to take advantage of the highly variable nature of the radio emissions powered by extrasolar space weather to enable detection of stellar CMEs and planetary magnetospheres.

Superposed epoch analysis of physiological fluctuations: possible space weather connections.

Science.gov (United States)

Wanliss, James; Cornélissen, Germaine; Halberg, Franz; Brown, Denzel; Washington, Brien

2018-03-01

There is a strong connection between space weather and fluctuations in technological systems. Some studies also suggest a statistical connection between space weather and subsequent fluctuations in the physiology of living creatures. This connection, however, has remained controversial and difficult to demonstrate. Here we present support for a response of human physiology to forcing from the explosive onset of the largest of space weather events-space storms. We consider a case study with over 16 years of high temporal resolution measurements of human blood pressure (systolic, diastolic) and heart rate variability to search for associations with space weather. We find no statistically significant change in human blood pressure but a statistically significant drop in heart rate during the main phase of space storms. Our empirical findings shed light on how human physiology may respond to exogenous space weather forcing.

Superposed epoch analysis of physiological fluctuations: possible space weather connections

Science.gov (United States)

Wanliss, James; Cornélissen, Germaine; Halberg, Franz; Brown, Denzel; Washington, Brien

2018-03-01

There is a strong connection between space weather and fluctuations in technological systems. Some studies also suggest a statistical connection between space weather and subsequent fluctuations in the physiology of living creatures. This connection, however, has remained controversial and difficult to demonstrate. Here we present support for a response of human physiology to forcing from the explosive onset of the largest of space weather events—space storms. We consider a case study with over 16 years of high temporal resolution measurements of human blood pressure (systolic, diastolic) and heart rate variability to search for associations with space weather. We find no statistically significant change in human blood pressure but a statistically significant drop in heart rate during the main phase of space storms. Our empirical findings shed light on how human physiology may respond to exogenous space weather forcing.

Forecasting Space Weather Hazards for Astronauts in Deep Space

Science.gov (United States)

Martens, P. C.

2018-02-01

Deep Space Gateway provides a unique platform to develop, calibrate, and test a space weather forecasting system for interplanetary travel in a real life setting. We will discuss requirements and design of such a system.

NASA's Internal Space Weather Working Group

Science.gov (United States)

St. Cyr, O. C.; Guhathakurta, M.; Bell, H.; Niemeyer, L.; Allen, J.

2011-01-01

Measurements from many of NASA's scientific spacecraft are used routinely by space weather forecasters, both in the U.S. and internationally. ACE, SOHO (an ESA/NASA collaboration), STEREO, and SDO provide images and in situ measurements that are assimilated into models and cited in alerts and warnings. A number of years ago, the Space Weather laboratory was established at NASA-Goddard, along with the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. Within that organization, a space weather service center has begun issuing alerts for NASA's operational users. NASA's operational user community includes flight operations for human and robotic explorers; atmospheric drag concerns for low-Earth orbit; interplanetary navigation and communication; and the fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles, high altitude aircraft, and launch vehicles. Over the past three years we have identified internal stakeholders within NASA and formed a Working Group to better coordinate their expertise and their needs. In this presentation we will describe this activity and some of the challenges in forming a diverse working group.

Space Weather Drivers in the ACE Era

Science.gov (United States)

Vogt, M.; Puhl-Quinn, P.; Jordanova, V. K.; Smith, C. W.; Cohen, C. M.

2004-12-01

The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft was launched Aug.~25, 1997 [Stone et al., 1998]. Beginning shortly after launch and continuing to the present day ACE has provided real-time data telemetry of solar wind conditions upstream of the Earth. The real-time data includes solar wind speed and density, magnetic field direction and magnitude, and a range of energetic particle intensities [Zwickl et al., 1999]. The real-time data product is provided within 5 minutes of observation and many partners from both industry and science use these data for a variety of purposes. The most common purpose of practical industrial application involves mitigation of lost services arising from magnetospheric storm activity. Many space weather efforts are directed at providing improved predictions of magnetospheric response that can be applied to real-time data in the hope of better predicting the vulnerability and required action of industry to approaching disturbances. It therefore seems prudent that following 6 years of activity including one solar maximum period we should evaluate the nature and strength of the largest disturbances observed with the hope of better assessing the industrial response. Simply put: ``Did ACE observe disturbances that were as large as those seen previously during the space age?'' If not, it may be the case that industry must evaluate its response to the real-time warnings and not become complacent by the simple act of survival. We compare the most intense space weather events of the ACE era with those recorded on the Omnitape data set spanning 40+ years of spacecraft measurements in the near-Earth environment. We compare both magnetospheric response parameters and solar wind drivers. In addition, we compare the large energetic particle events over the same time frame. Stone, E.~C., et al., Space Science Rev., 86(1-4), 357-408, 1998. Zwickl, R.~D., et al., Space Science Rev., 86(1-4), 633-648, 1998.

Web-based Weather Expert System (WES) for Space Shuttle Launch

Science.gov (United States)

Bardina, Jorge E.; Rajkumar, T.

2003-01-01

The Web-based Weather Expert System (WES) is a critical module of the Virtual Test Bed development to support 'go/no go' decisions for Space Shuttle operations in the Intelligent Launch and Range Operations program of NASA. The weather rules characterize certain aspects of the environment related to the launching or landing site, the time of the day or night, the pad or runway conditions, the mission durations, the runway equipment and landing type. Expert system rules are derived from weather contingency rules, which were developed over years by NASA. Backward chaining, a goal-directed inference method is adopted, because a particular consequence or goal clause is evaluated first, and then chained backward through the rules. Once a rule is satisfied or true, then that particular rule is fired and the decision is expressed. The expert system is continuously verifying the rules against the past one-hour weather conditions and the decisions are made. The normal procedure of operations requires a formal pre-launch weather briefing held on Launch minus 1 day, which is a specific weather briefing for all areas of Space Shuttle launch operations. In this paper, the Web-based Weather Expert System of the Intelligent Launch and range Operations program is presented.

Space Weathering in Houston: A Role for the Experimental Impact Laboratory at JSC

Science.gov (United States)

Cintala, M. J.; Keller, L. P.; Christoffersen, R.; Hoerz, F.

2015-01-01

The effective investigation of space weathering demands an interdisciplinary approach that is at least as diversified as any other in planetary science. Because it is a macroscopic process affecting all bodies in the solar system, impact and its resulting shock effects must be given detailed attention in this regard. Direct observation of the effects of impact is most readily done for the Moon, but it still remains difficult for other bodies in the solar system. Analyses of meteorites and precious returned samples provide clues for space weathering on asteroids, but many deductions arising from those studies must still be considered circumstantial. Theoretical work is also indispensable, but it can only go as far as the sometimes meager data allow. Experimentation, however, can permit near real-time study of myriad processes that could contribute to space weathering. This contribution describes some of the capabilities of the Johnson Space Center's Experimental Impact Laboratory (EIL) and how they might help in understanding the space weathering process.

Workshop Report on Space Weather Risks and Society

Science.gov (United States)

Langhoff, Stephanie R.; Straume, Tore

2012-01-01

As technological innovations produce new capabilities, complexities, and interdependencies, our susceptibility to the societal impacts of space weather increase. There is real concern in the scientific community that our infrastructure would be at significant risk if a major geomagnetic storm should occur. To discuss the societal impacts of space weather, we brought together an interdisciplinary group of subject matter experts and societal stakeholders to participate in a workshop entitled Space Weather Risks and Society. The workshop was held at Ames Research Center (ARC) on 15-16 October 2011. The workshop was co-sponsored by NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), the Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center (LMATC), the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA), and the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL, part of the UK Science and Technology Facilities Council STFC). The workshop is part of a series of informal weekend workshops hosted by Center Director Pete Worden.

Space Weather Research Towards Applications in Europe

CERN Document Server

Lilensten, Jean

2007-01-01

This book shows the state of the art in Europe on a very new discipline, Space Weather. This discipline lies at the edge between science and industry. This book reflects such a position, with theoretic papers and applicative papers as well. It is divided into 5 chapters. Each chapter starts with a short introduction, which shows the coherence of a given domain. Then, 4 to 5 contributions written by the best specialists in Europe give detailed hints of a hot topic in space weather. From the reading of this book, it becomes evident that space weather is a living discipline, full of promises and already full of amazing realizations. The strength of Europe is clear through the book, but it is also clear that this discipline is world wide.

A coronagraph for operational space weather predication

Science.gov (United States)

Middleton, Kevin F.

2017-09-01

Accurate prediction of the arrival of solar wind phenomena, in particular coronal mass ejections (CMEs), at Earth, and possibly elsewhere in the heliosphere, is becoming increasingly important given our ever-increasing reliance on technology. The potentially severe impact on human technological systems of such phenomena is termed space weather. A coronagraph is arguably the instrument that provides the earliest definitive evidence of CME eruption; from a vantage point on or near the Sun-Earth line, a coronagraph can provide near-definitive identification of an Earth-bound CME. Currently, prediction of CME arrival is critically dependent on ageing science coronagraphs whose design and operation were not optimized for space weather services. We describe the early stages of the conceptual design of SCOPE (the Solar Coronagraph for OPErations), optimized to support operational space weather services.

NSF's Perspective on Space Weather Research for Building Forecasting Capabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Bisi, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Bisi, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Webb, D. F.; Oughton, E. J.; Azeem, S. I.

2017-12-01

Space weather research at the National Science Foundation (NSF) is focused on scientific discovery and on deepening knowledge of the Sun-Geospace system. The process of maturation of knowledge base is a requirement for the development of improved space weather forecast models and for the accurate assessment of potential mitigation strategies. Progress in space weather forecasting requires advancing in-depth understanding of the underlying physical processes, developing better instrumentation and measurement techniques, and capturing the advancements in understanding in large-scale physics based models that span the entire chain of events from the Sun to the Earth. This presentation will provide an overview of current and planned programs pertaining to space weather research at NSF and discuss the recommendations of the Geospace Section portfolio review panel within the context of space weather forecasting capabilities.

Towards a Global Hub and a Network for Collaborative Advancing of Space Weather Predictive Capabilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuznetsova, M. M.; Heynderickz, D.; Grande, M.; Opgenoorth, H. J.

2017-12-01

The COSPAR/ILWS roadmap on space weather published in 2015 (Advances in Space Research, 2015: DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2015.03.023) prioritizes steps to be taken to advance understanding of space environment phenomena and to improve space weather forecasting capabilities. General recommendations include development of a comprehensive space environment specification, assessment of the state of the field on a 5-yr basis, standardization of meta-data and product metrics. To facilitate progress towards roadmap goals there is a need for a global hub for collaborative space weather capabilities assessment and development that brings together research, engineering, operational, educational, and end-user communities. The COSPAR Panel on Space Weather is aiming to build upon past progress and to facilitate coordination of established and new international space weather research and development initiatives. Keys to the success include creating flexible, collaborative, inclusive environment and engaging motivated groups and individuals committed to active participation in international multi-disciplinary teams focused on topics addressing emerging needs and challenges in the rapidly growing field of space weather. Near term focus includes comprehensive assessment of the state of the field and establishing an internationally recognized process to quantify and track progress over time, development of a global network of distributed web-based resources and interconnected interactive services required for space weather research, analysis, forecasting and education.

Vodcasting Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Collins Petersen, Carolyn; Erickson, P. J.; Needles, M.

2009-01-01

The topic of space weather is the subject of a series of vodcasts (video podcasts) produced by MIT Haystack Observatory (Westford, MA) and Loch Ness Productions (Groton, MA). This paper discusses the production and distribution of the series via Webcast, Youtube, and other avenues. It also presents preliminary evaluation of the effectiveness and outreach of the project through feedback from both formal and information education venues. The vodcast series is linked to the NASA Living With a Star Targeted Research and Technology project award "Multi-Instrument Investigation of Inner-Magnetospheric/Ionosphere Disturbances.” It is being carried out by Principal Investigator Dr. John Foster, under the auspices of NASA Grant # NNX06AB86G. The research involves using ionospheric total electron content (TEC) observations to study the location, extent, and duration of perturbations within stormtime ionospheric electric fields at mid- to low latitudes. It combines ground-based global positioning system (GPS) TEC data, incoherent scatter radar measurements of the mid-latitude ionospheric state, and DMSP satellite observations to characterize conditions which lead to severe low-latitude ionospheric perturbations. Each vodcast episode covers a certain aspect of space weather and the research program.

New Space Weather Systems Under Development and Their Contribution to Space Weather Management

Science.gov (United States)

Tobiska, W.; Bouwer, D.; Schunk, R.; Garrett, H.; Mertens, C.; Bowman, B.

2008-12-01

There have been notable successes during the past decade in the development of operational space environment systems. Examples include the Magnetospheric Specification Model (MSM) of the Earth's magnetosphere, 2000; SOLAR2000 (S2K) solar spectral irradiances, 2001; High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) neutral atmosphere densities, 2004; Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) ionosphere specification, 2006; Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) solar wind parameters, 2007; Communication Alert and Prediction System (CAPS) ionosphere, high frequency radio, and scintillation S4 index prediction, 2008; and GEO Alert and Prediction System (GAPS) geosynchronous environment satellite charging specification and forecast, 2008. Operational systems that are in active operational implementation include the Jacchia-Bowman 2006/2008 (JB2006/2008) neutral atmosphere, 2009, and the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) aviation radiation model using the Radiation Alert and Prediction System (RAPS), 2010. U.S. national agency and commercial assets will soon reach a state where specification and prediction will become ubiquitous and where coordinated management of the space environment and space weather will become a necessity. We describe the status of the CAPS, GAPS, RAPS, and JB2008 operational development. We additionally discuss the conditions that are laying the groundwork for space weather management and estimate the unfilled needs as we move beyond specification and prediction efforts.

Extreme Space Weather Events: From Cradle to Grave

Science.gov (United States)

Riley, Pete; Baker, Dan; Liu, Ying D.; Verronen, Pekka; Singer, Howard; Güdel, Manuel

2018-02-01

Extreme space weather events, while rare, can have a substantial impact on our technologically-dependent society. And, although such events have only occasionally been observed, through careful analysis of a wealth of space-based and ground-based observations, historical records, and extrapolations from more moderate events, we have developed a basic picture of the components required to produce them. Several key issues, however, remain unresolved. For example, what limits are imposed on the maximum size of such events? What are the likely societal consequences of a so-called "100-year" solar storm? In this review, we summarize our current scientific understanding about extreme space weather events as we follow several examples from the Sun, through the solar corona and inner heliosphere, across the magnetospheric boundary, into the ionosphere and atmosphere, into the Earth's lithosphere, and, finally, its impact on man-made structures and activities, such as spacecraft, GPS signals, radio communication, and the electric power grid. We describe preliminary attempts to provide probabilistic forecasts of extreme space weather phenomena, and we conclude by identifying several key areas that must be addressed if we are better able to understand, and, ultimately, predict extreme space weather events.

Operational space weather service for GNSS precise positioning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Jakowski

2005-11-01

Full Text Available The ionospheric plasma can significantly influence the propagation of radio waves and the ionospheric disturbances are capable of causing range errors, rapid phase and amplitude fluctuations (radio scintillations of satellite signals that may lead to degradation of the system performance, its accuracy and reliability. The cause of such disturbances should be sought in the processes originating in the Sun. Numerous studies on these phenomena have been already carried out at a broad international level, in order to measure/estimate these space weather induced effects, to forecast them, and to understand and mitigate their impact on present-day technological systems. SWIPPA (Space Weather Impact on Precise Positioning Applications is a pilot project jointly supported by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR and the European Space Agency (ESA. The project aims at establishing, operating, and evaluating a specific space-weather monitoring service that can possibly lead to improving current positioning applications based on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS. This space weather service provides GNSS users with essential expert information delivered in the form of several products - maps of TEC values, TEC spatial and temporal gradients, alerts for ongoing/oncoming ionosphere disturbances, etc.

Operational space weather service for GNSS precise positioning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Jakowski

2005-11-01

Full Text Available The ionospheric plasma can significantly influence the propagation of radio waves and the ionospheric disturbances are capable of causing range errors, rapid phase and amplitude fluctuations (radio scintillations of satellite signals that may lead to degradation of the system performance, its accuracy and reliability. The cause of such disturbances should be sought in the processes originating in the Sun. Numerous studies on these phenomena have been already carried out at a broad international level, in order to measure/estimate these space weather induced effects, to forecast them, and to understand and mitigate their impact on present-day technological systems.

SWIPPA (Space Weather Impact on Precise Positioning Applications is a pilot project jointly supported by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR and the European Space Agency (ESA. The project aims at establishing, operating, and evaluating a specific space-weather monitoring service that can possibly lead to improving current positioning applications based on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS. This space weather service provides GNSS users with essential expert information delivered in the form of several products - maps of TEC values, TEC spatial and temporal gradients, alerts for ongoing/oncoming ionosphere disturbances, etc.

Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report - Extended Summary

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

The effects of space weather on modern technological systems are well documented in both the technical literature and popular accounts. Most often cited perhaps is the collapse within 90 seconds of northeastern Canada's Hydro-Quebec power grid during the great geomagnetic storm of March 1989, which left millions of people without electricity for up to 9 hours. This event exemplifies the dramatic impact that severe space weather can have on a technology upon which modern society critically depends. Nearly two decades have passed since the March 1989 event. During that time, awareness of the risks of severe space weather has increased among the affected industries, mitigation strategies have been developed, new sources of data have become available, new models of the space environment have been created, and a national space weather infrastructure has evolved to provide data, alerts, and forecasts to an increasing number of users. Now, 20 years later and approaching a new interval of increased solar activity, how well equipped are we to manage the effects of space weather? Have recent technological developments made our critical technologies more or less vulnerable? How well do we understand the broader societal and economic impacts of severe space weather events? Are our institutions prepared to cope with the effects of a 'space weather Katrina,' a rare, but according to the historical record, not inconceivable eventuality? On May 22 and 23, 2008, a one-and-a-half-day workshop held in Washington, D.C., under the auspices of the National Research Council's (NRC's) Space Studies Board brought together representatives of industry, the federal government, and the social science community to explore these and related questions. The key themes, ideas, and insights that emerged during the presentations and discussions are summarized in 'Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report' (The National Academies Press, Washington, D

Space Weather in the Machine Learning Era: A Multidisciplinary Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Camporeale, E.; Wing, S.; Johnson, J.; Jackman, C. M.; McGranaghan, R.

2018-01-01

The workshop entitled Space Weather: A Multidisciplinary Approach took place at the Lorentz Center, University of Leiden, Netherlands, on 25-29 September 2017. The aim of this workshop was to bring together members of the Space Weather, Mathematics, Statistics, and Computer Science communities to address the use of advanced techniques such as Machine Learning, Information Theory, and Deep Learning, to better understand the Sun-Earth system and to improve space weather forecasting. Although individual efforts have been made toward this goal, the community consensus is that establishing interdisciplinary collaborations is the most promising strategy for fully utilizing the potential of these advanced techniques in solving Space Weather-related problems.

NCU-SWIP Space Weather Instrumentation Payload - Intelligent Sensors On Efficient Real-Time Distributed LUTOS

Science.gov (United States)

Yeh, Tse-Liang; Dmitriev, Alexei; Chu, Yen-Hsyang; Jiang, Shyh-Biau; Chen, Li-Wu

The NCU-SWIP - Space Weather Instrumentation Payload is developed for simultaneous in-situ and remote measurement of space weather parameters for cross verifications. The measurements include in-situ electron density, electron temperature, magnetic field, the deceleration of satellite due to neutral wind, and remotely the linear cumulative intensities of oxygen ion air-glows at 135.6nm and 630.0nm along the flight path in forward, nader, and backward directions for tomographic reconstruction of the electron density distribution underneath. This instrument package is suitable for micro satellite constellation to establish nominal space weather profiles and, thus, to detect abnormal variations as the signs of ionospheric disturbances induced by severe atmospheric weather, or earth quake - mantle movement through their Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling Mechanism. NCU-SWIP is constructed with intelligent sensor modules connected by common bus with their functionalities managed by an efficient distributed real-time system LUTOS. The same hierarchy can be applied to the level of satellite constellation. For example SWIP's in a constellation in coordination with the GNSS Occultation Experiment TriG planned for the Formosa-7 constellation, data can be cross correlated for verification and refinement for real-time, stable and reliable measurements. A SWIP will be contributed to the construction of a MAI Micro Satellite for verification. The SWIP consists of two separate modules: the SWIP main control module and the SWIP-PMTomo sensor module. They are respectively a 1.5kg W120xL120xH100 (in mm) box with forward facing 120mmPhi circular disk probe on a boom top edged at 470mm height and a 7.2kg W126xL590x372H (in mm) slab containing 3 legs looking downwards along the flight path, while consuming the maximum electricity of 10W and 12W. The sensors are 1) ETPEDP measuring 16bits floating potentials for electron temperature range of 1000K to 3000K and 24bits electron

GOES-16 Space Weather Data Availability and Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Tilton, M.; Rowland, W. F.; Codrescu, S.; Seaton, D. B.; Redmon, R. J.; Hsu, V.

2017-12-01

In November 2016, NOAA launched the first in the "R" series of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites, GOES-16. Compared to its GOES predecessors, the GOES-R series satellites provide improved in situ measurements of charged particles, higher cadence magnetic field measurements, and enhanced remote sensing of the sun through ultraviolet (UV) imagery and X-ray/UV irradiance. GOES-16 space weather instruments will nominally reach provisional status near the beginning of 2018. After this milestone has been achieved, NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) will provide archive access to GOES-16 space weather data. This presentation will describe the status of the space weather instruments, including available products and their applicability for forecasters, modelers, academics, spacecraft operators, and other users. It will discuss the available access systems for all levels of data-raw telemetry (Level 0), science measurements in high resolution (L1b), and higher-level (L2+) products developed by NCEI scientists. Finally, it will cover NCEI's efforts to promote space weather awareness through data visualization tools and image dissemination via the Helioviewer project.

The effort to increase the space weather forecasting accuracy in KSWC

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, J. S.

2017-12-01

The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition as the Regional Warning Center of the International Space Environment Service (ISES). KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. Recently, KSWC are focusing on increasing the accuracy of space weather forecasting results and verifying the model generated results. The forecasting accuracy will be calculated based on the probability statistical estimation so that the results can be compared numerically. Regarding the cosmic radiation does, we are gathering the actual measured data of radiation does using the instrument by cooperation with the domestic airlines. Based on the measurement, we are going to verify the reliability of SAFE system which was developed by KSWC to provide the cosmic radiation does information with the airplane cabin crew and public users.

Using Citizen Science and Crowdsourcing via Aurorasaurus as a Near Real Time Data Source for Space Weather Applications

Science.gov (United States)

MacDonald, E.; Heavner, M.; Hall, M.; Tapia, A.; Lalone, N.; Clayon, J.; Case, N.

2014-12-01

Aurorasaurus is on the cutting edge of space science, citizen science, and computer science simultaneously with the broad goals to develop a real-time citizen science network, educate the general public about the northern lights, and revolutionize real-time space weather nowcasting of the aurora for the public. We are currently in the first solar maximum with social media, which enables the technological roots to connect users, citizen scientists, and professionals around a shared global, rare interest. We will introduce the project which has been in a prototype mode since 2012 and recently relaunched with a new mobile and web presence and active campaigns. We will showcase the interdisciplinary advancements which include a more educated public, disaster warning system applications, and improved real-time ground truth data including photographs and observations of the Northern Lights. We will preview new data which validates the proof of concept for significant improvements in real-time space weather nowcasting. Our aim is to provide better real-time notifications of the visibility of the Northern Lights to the interested public via the combination of noisy crowd-sourced ground truth with noisy satellite-based predictions. The latter data are available now but are often delivered with significant jargon and uncertainty, thus reliable, timely interpretation of such forecasts by the public are problematic. The former data show real-time characteristic significant rises (in tweets for instance) that correlate with other non-real-time indices of auroral activity (like the Kp index). We will discuss the source of 'noise' in each data source. Using citizen science as a platform to provide a basis for deeper understanding is one goal; secondly we want to improve understanding of and appreciation for the dynamics and beauty of the Northern Lights by the public and scientists alike.

Briefing highlights space weather risks to GPS

Science.gov (United States)

Tretkoff, Ernie

2011-07-01

Solar storms, which are expected to increase as the Sun nears the most active phase of the solar cycle, can disrupt a variety of technologies on which society relies. Speakers at a 22 June briefing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D. C., focused on how space weather can affect the Global Positioning System (GPS), which is used in a wide range of industries, including commercial air travel, agriculture, national security, and emergency response. Rocky Stone, chief technical pilot for United Airlines, noted that GPS allows more aircraft to be in airspace, saves fuel, and helps aircraft move safely on runways. “Improvements in space weather forecasting need to be pursued,” he said. Precision GPS has also “changed the whole nature of farming,” said Ron Hatch, Director of Navigation Systems, NavCom Technology/John Deere. GPS makes it possible for tractors to be driven in the most efficient paths and for fertilizer and water to be applied precisely to the areas that most need them. Space weather-induced degradation of GPS signals can cause significant loss to farms that rely on GPS. Elizabeth Zimmerman, Deputy Associate Administrator for the Office of Response and Recovery at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), described how FEMA relies on GPS for disaster recovery. The agency is developing an operations plan for dealing with space weather, she said.

Space Weather Models and Their Validation and Verification at the CCMC

Science.gov (United States)

Hesse, Michael

2010-01-01

The Community Coordinated l\\lodeling Center (CCMC) is a US multi-agency activity with a dual mission. With equal emphasis, CCMC strives to provide science support to the international space research community through the execution of advanced space plasma simulations, and it endeavors to support the space weather needs of the CS and partners. Space weather support involves a broad spectrum, from designing robust forecasting systems and transitioning them to forecasters, to providing space weather updates and forecasts to NASA's robotic mission operators. All of these activities have to rely on validation and verification of models and their products, so users and forecasters have the means to assign confidence levels to the space weather information. In this presentation, we provide an overview of space weather models resident at CCMC, as well as of validation and verification activities undertaken at CCMC or through the use of CCMC services.

Characterizing Space Weather Effects in the Post-DMSP Era

Science.gov (United States)

Groves, K. M.

2015-12-01

Space weather generally refers to heliophysical phenomena or events that produce a negative impact on manmade systems. While many space weather events originate with impulsive disturbances on the sun, others result from complex internal interactions in the ionosphere-thermosphere system. The reliance of mankind on satellite-based services continues to increase rapidly, yet the global capacity for sensing space weather in the ionosphere seems headed towards decline. A number of recent ionospheric-focused space-based missions are either presently, or soon-to-be, no longer available, and the end of the multi-decade Defense Meteorological Satellite Program is now in sight. The challenge facing the space weather community is how to maintain or increase sensing capabilities in an operational environment constrained by a decreasing numbers of sensors. The upcoming launch of COSMIC-2 in 2016/2018 represents the most significant new capability planned for the future. GNSS RO data has some benefit for background ionospheric models, particularly over regions where ground-based GNSS TEC measurements are unavailable, but the space weather community has a dire need to leverage such missions for far more knowledge of the ionosphere, and specifically for information related to space weather impacts. Meanwhile, the number of ground-based GNSS sensors worldwide has increased substantially, yet progress instrumenting some vastly undersampled regions, such as Africa, remains slow. In fact, the recent loss of support for many existing ground stations in such areas under the former Scintillation Network Decision Aid (SCINDA) program may actually result in a decrease in such sensing sites over the next 1-2 years, abruptly reversing a positive trend established over the last decade. Here we present potential solutions to the challenges these developments pose to the space weather enterprise. Specific topics include modeling advances required to detect and accurately characterize

A Heliospheric Weather Expert Service Centre for ESA's Space Situational Awareness Space Weather Activities

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, D.; Perry, C. H.

2017-12-01

The Heliospheric Weather Expert Service Centre (H-ESC) is one of five thematic virtual centres that are currently being developed as part of ESA's Space Situational Awareness pre-operational Space Weather service. In this presentation we introduce the current products and service that the H-ESC is providing. The immediate and downstream user groups that the centre is aiming to support are discussed. A description is provided on how the H-ESC is largely built on adoption and tailoring of federated products from expert groups around Europe and how these can be used to add value to the overall system. Having only recently been established the H-ESC is continuing to address gaps in its capabilities. Some of the priorities for products, their assessment, validation and integration into the system are discussed together with plans for bespoke development activities tailored to specific end-user group needs.

Forecasting Space Weather-Induced GPS Performance Degradation Using Random Forest

Science.gov (United States)

Filjar, R.; Filic, M.; Milinkovic, F.

2017-12-01

Space weather and ionospheric dynamics have a profound effect on positioning performance of the Global Satellite Navigation System (GNSS). However, the quantification of that effect is still the subject of scientific activities around the world. In the latest contribution to the understanding of the space weather and ionospheric effects on satellite-based positioning performance, we conducted a study of several candidates for forecasting method for space weather-induced GPS positioning performance deterioration. First, a 5-days set of experimentally collected data was established, encompassing the space weather and ionospheric activity indices (including: the readings of the Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance (SID) monitors, components of geomagnetic field strength, global Kp index, Dst index, GPS-derived Total Electron Content (TEC) samples, standard deviation of TEC samples, and sunspot number) and observations of GPS positioning error components (northing, easting, and height positioning error) derived from the Adriatic Sea IGS reference stations' RINEX raw pseudorange files in quiet space weather periods. This data set was split into the training and test sub-sets. Then, a selected set of supervised machine learning methods based on Random Forest was applied to the experimentally collected data set in order to establish the appropriate regional (the Adriatic Sea) forecasting models for space weather-induced GPS positioning performance deterioration. The forecasting models were developed in the R/rattle statistical programming environment. The forecasting quality of the regional forecasting models developed was assessed, and the conclusions drawn on the advantages and shortcomings of the regional forecasting models for space weather-caused GNSS positioning performance deterioration.

Space Weather Operation at KASI With Van Allen Probes Beacon Signals

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jongkil; Kim, Kyung-Chan; Giuseppe, Romeo; Ukhorskiy, Sasha; Sibeck, David; Kessel, Ramona; Mauk, Barry; Giles, Barbara; Gu, Bon-Jun; Lee, Hyesook; Park, Young-Deuk; Lee, Jaejin

2018-02-01

The Van Allen Probes (VAPs) are the only modern National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) spacecraft broadcasting real-time data on the Earth's radiation belts for space weather operations. Since 2012, the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) has contributed to the receipt of these data via a 7 m satellite-tracking antenna and used these beacon data for space weather operations. An approximately 15 min period is required from measurement to acquisition of Level-1 data. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of VAP data for monitoring space weather conditions at geostationary orbit (GEO) by highlighting the Saint Patrick's Day storm of 2015. During that storm, Probe-A observed a significant increase in the relativistic electron flux at 3 RE. Those electrons diffused outward resulting in a large increase of the electron flux >2 MeV at GEO, which potentially threatened satellite operations. Based on this study, we conclude that the combination of VAP data and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (NOAA-GOES) data can provide improved space environment information to geostationary satellite operators. In addition, the findings obtained indicate that more data-receiving sites would be necessary and data connections improved if this or a similar system were to be used as an operational data service.

Space Weather Forecasting Operational Needs: A view from NOAA/SWPC

Science.gov (United States)

Biesecker, D. A.; Onsager, T. G.; Rutledge, R.

2017-12-01

The gaps in space weather forecasting are many. From long lead time forecasts, to accurate warnings with lead time to take action, there is plenty of room for improvement. Significant numbers of new observations would improve this picture, but it's also important to recognize the value of numerical modeling. The obvious interplanetary mission concepts that would be ideal would be 1) to measure the in-situ solar wind along the entire Sun-Earth line from as near to the Sun as possible all the way to Earth 2) a string of spacecraft in 1 AU heliocentric orbits making in-situ measurements as well as remote-sensing observations of the Sun, corona, and heliosphere. Even partially achieving these ideals would benefit space weather services, improving lead time and providing greater accuracy further into the future. The observations alone would improve forecasting. However, integrating these data into numerical models, as boundary conditions or via data assimilation, would provide the greatest improvements.

Sensitivity of Earth Wheat Markets to Space Weather: Comparative Analysis based on data from Medieval European Markets

Science.gov (United States)

Pustil'Nik, Lev

We consider a problem of the possible influence of unfavorable states of the space weather on agriculture markets through the chain of connections: "space weather"-"earth weather"- "agriculture crops"-"price reaction". We show that new manifestations of "space weather"- "earth weather" relations discovered in the recent time allow revising a wide range of the expected solar-terrestrial connections. In the previous works we proposed possible mechanisms of wheat market reaction on the specific unfavorable states of space weather in the form of price bursts and price asymmetry. We point out that implementation of considered "price reaction scenarios" is possible only for the case of simultaneous realization of several necessary conditions: high sensitivity of local earth weather in the selected region to space weather; the state of "high risk agriculture" in the selected agriculture zone; high sensitivity of agricultural market to a possible deficit of yield. Results of our previous works (I, II), including application of this approach to the Medieval England wheat market (1250-1700) and to the modern USA durum market (1910-1992), showed that connection between wheat price bursts and space weather state in these cases was absolutely real. The aim of the present work is to answer the question why wheat markets in one selected region may be sensitive to a space weather factor, while in other regions wheat markets demonstrate absolutely indifferent reaction on the space weather. For this aim, we consider dependence of sensitivity of wheat markets to space weather as a function of their location in different climatic zones of Europe. We analyze a database of 95 European wheat markets from 14 countries for the 600-year period (1260-1912). We show that the observed sensitivity of wheat markets to space weather effects is controlled, first of all, by a type of predominant climate in different zones of agricultural production. Wheat markets in the Northern and, partly, in

The Art and Science of Long-Range Space Weather Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.

2006-01-01

Long-range space weather forecasts are akin to seasonal forecasts of terrestrial weather. We don t expect to forecast individual events but we do hope to forecast the underlying level of activity important for satellite operations and mission pl&g. Forecasting space weather conditions years or decades into the future has traditionally been based on empirical models of the solar cycle. Models for the shape of the cycle as a function of its amplitude become reliable once the amplitude is well determined - usually two to three years after minimum. Forecasting the amplitude of a cycle well before that time has been more of an art than a science - usually based on cycle statistics and trends. Recent developments in dynamo theory -the theory explaining the generation of the Sun s magnetic field and the solar activity cycle - have now produced models with predictive capabilities. Testing these models with historical sunspot cycle data indicates that these predictions may be highly reliable one, or even two, cycles into the future.

Weather Regulates Location, Timing, and Intensity of Dengue Virus Transmission between Humans and Mosquitoes.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Karen M; Haldeman, Kristin; Lehnig, Chris; Munayco, Cesar V; Halsey, Eric S; Laguna-Torres, V Alberto; Yagui, Martín; Morrison, Amy C; Lin, Chii-Dean; Scott, Thomas W

2015-01-01

Dengue is one of the most aggressively expanding mosquito-transmitted viruses. The human burden approaches 400 million infections annually. Complex transmission dynamics pose challenges for predicting location, timing, and magnitude of risk; thus, models are needed to guide prevention strategies and policy development locally and globally. Weather regulates transmission-potential via its effects on vector dynamics. An important gap in understanding risk and roadblock in model development is an empirical perspective clarifying how weather impacts transmission in diverse ecological settings. We sought to determine if location, timing, and potential-intensity of transmission are systematically defined by weather. We developed a high-resolution empirical profile of the local weather-disease connection across Peru, a country with considerable ecological diversity. Applying 2-dimensional weather-space that pairs temperature versus humidity, we mapped local transmission-potential in weather-space by week during 1994-2012. A binary classification-tree was developed to test whether weather data could classify 1828 Peruvian districts as positive/negative for transmission and into ranks of transmission-potential with respect to observed disease. We show that transmission-potential is regulated by temperature-humidity coupling, enabling epidemics in a limited area of weather-space. Duration within a specific temperature range defines transmission-potential that is amplified exponentially in higher humidity. Dengue-positive districts were identified by mean temperature >22°C for 7+ weeks and minimum temperature >14°C for 33+ weeks annually with 95% sensitivity and specificity. In elevated-risk locations, seasonal peak-incidence occurred when mean temperature was 26-29°C, coincident with humidity at its local maximum; highest incidence when humidity >80%. We profile transmission-potential in weather-space for temperature-humidity ranging 0-38°C and 5-100% at 1°C x 2

Weather Regulates Location, Timing, and Intensity of Dengue Virus Transmission between Humans and Mosquitoes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karen M Campbell

Full Text Available Dengue is one of the most aggressively expanding mosquito-transmitted viruses. The human burden approaches 400 million infections annually. Complex transmission dynamics pose challenges for predicting location, timing, and magnitude of risk; thus, models are needed to guide prevention strategies and policy development locally and globally. Weather regulates transmission-potential via its effects on vector dynamics. An important gap in understanding risk and roadblock in model development is an empirical perspective clarifying how weather impacts transmission in diverse ecological settings. We sought to determine if location, timing, and potential-intensity of transmission are systematically defined by weather.We developed a high-resolution empirical profile of the local weather-disease connection across Peru, a country with considerable ecological diversity. Applying 2-dimensional weather-space that pairs temperature versus humidity, we mapped local transmission-potential in weather-space by week during 1994-2012. A binary classification-tree was developed to test whether weather data could classify 1828 Peruvian districts as positive/negative for transmission and into ranks of transmission-potential with respect to observed disease. We show that transmission-potential is regulated by temperature-humidity coupling, enabling epidemics in a limited area of weather-space. Duration within a specific temperature range defines transmission-potential that is amplified exponentially in higher humidity. Dengue-positive districts were identified by mean temperature >22°C for 7+ weeks and minimum temperature >14°C for 33+ weeks annually with 95% sensitivity and specificity. In elevated-risk locations, seasonal peak-incidence occurred when mean temperature was 26-29°C, coincident with humidity at its local maximum; highest incidence when humidity >80%. We profile transmission-potential in weather-space for temperature-humidity ranging 0-38°C and 5

Cost-Loss Analysis of Ensemble Solar Wind Forecasting: Space Weather Use of Terrestrial Weather Tools

Science.gov (United States)

Henley, E. M.; Pope, E. C. D.

2017-12-01

This commentary concerns recent work on solar wind forecasting by Owens and Riley (2017). The approach taken makes effective use of tools commonly used in terrestrial weather—notably, via use of a simple model—generation of an "ensemble" forecast, and application of a "cost-loss" analysis to the resulting probabilistic information, to explore the benefit of this forecast to users with different risk appetites. This commentary aims to highlight these useful techniques to the wider space weather audience and to briefly discuss the general context of application of terrestrial weather approaches to space weather.

Space weather impact on radio device operation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Berngardt O.I.

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This paper reviews the space weather impact on operation of radio devices. The review is based on recently published papers, books, and strategic scientific plans of space weather investigations. The main attention is paid to ionospheric effects on propagation of radiowaves, basically short ones. Some examples of such effects are based on 2012–2016 ISTP SB RAS EKB radar data: attenuation of ground backscatter signals during solar flares, effects of traveling ionospheric disturbances of different scales in ground backscatter signals, effects of magnetospheric waves in ionospheric scatter signals.

Space weather impact on radio device operation

Science.gov (United States)

Berngardt, Oleg

2017-09-01

This paper reviews the space weather impact on operation of radio devices. The review is based on recently published papers, books, and strategic scientific plans of space weather investigations. The main attention is paid to ionospheric effects on propagation of radiowaves, basically short ones. Some examples of such effects are based on 2012–2016 ISTP SB RAS EKB radar data: attenuation of ground backscatter signals during solar flares, effects of traveling ionospheric disturbances of different scales in ground backscatter signals, effects of magnetospheric waves in ionospheric scatter signals.

Space Weather Impacts to Conjunction Assessment: A NASA Robotic Orbital Safety Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Ghrist, Richard; Ghrist, Richard; DeHart, Russel; Newman, Lauri

2013-01-01

and the geometry of the conjunction. These satellite time offsets can form the basis of a new technique under development to determine whether space weather perturbations, such as coronal mass ejections, are likely to increase, decrease, or have a neutral effect on the collision risk due to a particular close approach.

New Federal Government Space Weather Website and Document Repository Launched

Science.gov (United States)

Bonadonna, Michael; Jonas, Seth; McNamara, Erin

2017-11-01

On Tuesday, 19 September 2017, the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center and Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM) launched the new Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation website SWORM.GOV. The website provides access to the public to Federal activities supporting the Executive Office of the President National Science and Technology Council SWORM Subcommittee as well as other activities and events relevant to the National Space Weather Enterprise. SWORM.GOV was approved by the SWORM Subcommittee, funded by NOAA, and maintained by OFCM.

Space weather effects and commerical airlines

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, J.; Bentley, R.; Hunter, R.; Taylor, G.; Thomas, D.

Space Weather (SW) phenomena can effect many areas of commercial airline operations including avionics, communications and GPS navigation systems. Of particular importance at present is the recently introduced EU legislation requiring the monitoring of aircrew radiation exposure, including any variations at aircraft altitudes due to solar activity. The Mullard Space Science Laboratory is collaborating with Virgin Atlantic Airways, the Civil Aviation Authority and the National Physical Laboratory on a 3- year project to monitor the levels of cosmic radiation on long-haul flights. The study will determine whether computer models currently used to predict radiation exposure of aircrew are adequate. It also aims to determine whether solar or geomagnetic activity can cause significant modifications to the doses. This presentation will begin by showing some of the preliminary results obtained so far. As an example, we present a comparison of flight doses measured following the 14t h July 2000 X - class flare that was accompanied by a major Solar Particle Event (SPE). The results highlight the importance of a range of external factors that can strongly influence how SPEs may effect the measured dose at aircraft altitudes. At present, any SPE contributions in the airlines' dose records can only be poorly estimated retrospectively. Ideally, it would be better to try to avoid operating during these possibly significant radiation - enhancing events by utilising SW information (alerts, warnings, etc.). However, doing so poses many difficult operational problems for such a heavily regulated international industry, in terms of safety, security and procedures. Therefore, the use of timely SW information, which is still very unreliable, in a similar manner to terrestrial weather will require agreement from the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and International Air Transport Association (IATA) to Air Traffic Control and Aviation Regulatory Authority's. This

Planetary Space Weather Services for the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

André, Nicolas; Grande, Manuel

2016-04-01

Under Horizon 2020, the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure (EPN2020-RI) will include an entirely new Virtual Access Service, WP5 VA1 "Planetary Space Weather Services" (PSWS) that will extend the concepts of space weather and space situational awareness to other planets in our Solar System and in particular to spacecraft that voyage through it. VA1 will make five entirely new 'toolkits' accessible to the research community and to industrial partners planning for space missions: a general planetary space weather toolkit, as well as three toolkits dedicated to the following key planetary environments: Mars (in support ExoMars), comets (building on the expected success of the ESA Rosetta mission), and outer planets (in preparation for the ESA JUICE mission to be launched in 2022). This will give the European planetary science community new methods, interfaces, functionalities and/or plugins dedicated to planetary space weather in the tools and models available within the partner institutes. It will also create a novel event-diary toolkit aiming at predicting and detecting planetary events like meteor showers and impacts. A variety of tools (in the form of web applications, standalone software, or numerical models in various degrees of implementation) are available for tracing propagation of planetary and/or solar events through the Solar System and modelling the response of the planetary environment (surfaces, atmospheres, ionospheres, and magnetospheres) to those events. But these tools were not originally designed for planetary event prediction and space weather applications. So WP10 JRA4 "Planetary Space Weather Services" (PSWS) will provide the additional research and tailoring required to apply them for these purposes. The overall objectives of this Joint Research Aactivities will be to review, test, improve and adapt methods and tools available within the partner institutes in order to make prototype planetary event and space weather services operational in

The Social and Economic Impacts of Space Weather (US Project)

Science.gov (United States)

Pulkkinen, A. A.; Bisi, M. M.; Webb, D. F.; Oughton, E. J.; Worman, S. L.; Taylor, S. M.; Onsager, T. G.; Adkins, J. E.; Baker, D. N.; Forbes, K. F.; Basoli, D.; Griot, O.

2017-12-01

The National Space Weather Action Plan calls for new research into the social and economic impacts of space weather and for the development of quantitative estimates of potential costs. In response to this call, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and Abt Associates are working together to identify, describe, and quantify the impact of space weather to U.S. interests. This study covers impacts resulting from both moderate and severe space weather events across four technological sectors: Electric power, commercial aviation, satellites, and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) users. It captures the full range of potential impacts, identified from an extensive literature review and from additional conversations with more than 50 sector stakeholders of diverse expertise from engineering to operations to end users. We organize and discuss our findings in terms of five broad but interrelated impact categories including Defensive Investments, Mitigating Actions, Asset Damages, Service Interruptions, and Health Effects. We also present simple, tractable estimates of the potential costs where we focused on quantifying a subset of all identified impacts that are apt to be largest and are also most plausible during moderate and more severe space weather scenarios. We hope that our systematic exploration of the social and economic impacts provides a foundation for the future work that is critical for designing technologies, developing procedures, and implementing policies that can effectively reduce our known and evolving vulnerabilities to this natural hazard.

Australian Space Weather Services - Past and Present

Science.gov (United States)

Wilkinson, P.; Patterson, G.; Cole, D. G.; Yuile, C.; Wang, Y.-J.; Tripathi, Y.; Marshall, R.; Thompson, R.; Phelan, P.

HF radio and magnetic field changes were the first space weather problems experienced. Worldwide magnetometer and ionosonde networks were developed to better understand the problems and advance practical advice. The Ionospheric Predictions Service (IPS) was formed to co-ordinate Australian ionospheric monitoring and advise HF communicators and other groups interested in the effects of solar activity. Although customer numbers and sophistication have changed, service demand has remained steady. Currently, IPS distributes real-time services for HF radio, magnetic and space customers through the web (http://www.ips.gov.au) in addition to other conventional services. The Web HF services are based on an empirical ionospheric model updated hourly using ionosonde data. Magnetic services use similar, empirical, data-driven models

Swarm Products and Space Weather Applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stolle, Claudia; Olsen, Nils; Martini, Daniel

The Swarm satellite constellation mission provides high precision magnetic field data and models and other observations that enable us to explore near Earth space for example in terms of in situ electron density and electric fields. On board GPS observables can be used for sounding ionospheric...... in aeronomy and space weather. We will emphasize results from the Swarm mission....

Space weather: Why are magnetospheric physicists interested in solar explosive phenomena

Science.gov (United States)

Koskinen, H. E. J.; Pulkkinen, T. I.

That solar activity drives magnetospheric dynamics has for a long time been the basis of solar-terrestrial physics. Numerous statistical studies correlating sunspots, 10.7 cm radiation, solar flares, etc., with various magnetospheric and geomagnetic parameters have been performed. However, in studies of magnetospheric dynamics the role of the Sun has often remained in the background and only the actual solar wind impinging the magnetosphere has gained most of the attention. During the last few years a new applied field of solar-terrestrial physics, space weather, has emerged. The term refers to variable particle and field conditions in our space environment, which may be hazardous to space-borne or ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life and health. When the modern society is becoming increasingly dependent on space technology, the need for better modelling and also forecasting of space weather becomes urgent. While for post analysis of magnetospheric phenomena it is quite sufficient to include observations from the magnetospheric boundaries out to L1 where SOHO is located, these observations do not provide enough lead-time to run space weather forecasting models and to distribute the forecasts to potential customers. For such purposes we need improved physical understanding and models to predict which active processes on the Sun will impact the magnetosphere and what their expected consequences are. An important change of view on the role of the Sun as the origin of magnetospheric disturbances has taken place during last 10--20 years. For a long time, the solar flares were thought to be the most geoeffective solar phenomena. Now the attention has shifted much more towards coronal mass ejections and the SOHO coronal observations seem to have turned the epoch irreversibly. However, we are not yet ready to make reliable perdictions of the terrestrial environment based on CME observations. From the space weather viewpoint, the key questions are

Solar Atmosphere to Earth's Surface: Long Lead Time dB/dt Predictions with the Space Weather Modeling Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Welling, D. T.; Manchester, W.; Savani, N.; Sokolov, I.; van der Holst, B.; Jin, M.; Toth, G.; Liemohn, M. W.; Gombosi, T. I.

2017-12-01

The future of space weather prediction depends on the community's ability to predict L1 values from observations of the solar atmosphere, which can yield hours of lead time. While both empirical and physics-based L1 forecast methods exist, it is not yet known if this nascent capability can translate to skilled dB/dt forecasts at the Earth's surface. This paper shows results for the first forecast-quality, solar-atmosphere-to-Earth's-surface dB/dt predictions. Two methods are used to predict solar wind and IMF conditions at L1 for several real-world coronal mass ejection events. The first method is an empirical and observationally based system to estimate the plasma characteristics. The magnetic field predictions are based on the Bz4Cast system which assumes that the CME has a cylindrical flux rope geometry locally around Earth's trajectory. The remaining plasma parameters of density, temperature and velocity are estimated from white-light coronagraphs via a variety of triangulation methods and forward based modelling. The second is a first-principles-based approach that combines the Eruptive Event Generator using Gibson-Low configuration (EEGGL) model with the Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM). EEGGL specifies parameters for the Gibson-Low flux rope such that it erupts, driving a CME in the coronal model that reproduces coronagraph observations and propagates to 1AU. The resulting solar wind predictions are used to drive the operational Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) for geospace. Following the configuration used by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, this setup couples the BATS-R-US global magnetohydromagnetic model to the Rice Convection Model (RCM) ring current model and a height-integrated ionosphere electrodynamics model. The long lead time predictions of dB/dt are compared to model results that are driven by L1 solar wind observations. Both are compared to real-world observations from surface magnetometers at a variety of geomagnetic latitudes

Integration of Space Weather Forecasts into Space Protection

Science.gov (United States)

Reeves, G.

2012-09-01

How would the US respond to a clandestine attack that disabled one of our satellites? How would we know that it was an attack, not a natural failure? The goal of space weather programs as applied to space protection are simple: Provide a rapid and reliable assessment of the probability that satellite or system failure was caused by the space environment. Achieving that goal is not as simple. However, great strides are being made on a number of fronts. We will report on recent successes in providing rapid, automated anomaly/attack assessment for the penetrating radiation environment in the Earth's radiation belts. We have previously reported on the Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) that was developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to assess hazards posed by the natural and by nuclear radiation belts. This year we will report on recent developments that are moving this program from the research, test, and evaluation phases to real-time implementation and application. We will discuss the challenges of leveraging space environment data sets for applications that are beyond the scope of mission requirements, the challenges of moving data from where they exist to where they are needed, the challenges of turning data into actionable information, and how those challenges were overcome. We will discuss the state-of-the-art as it exists in 2012 including the new capabilities that have been enabled and the limitations that still exist. We will also discuss how currently untapped data resources could advance the state-of-the-art and the future steps for implementing automatic real-time anomaly forensics.

The Critical Role of the Research Community in Space Weather Planning and Execution

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, Robert M.; Behnke, Richard A.; Moretto, Therese

2018-03-01

The explosion of interest in space weather in the last 25 years has been due to a confluence of efforts all over the globe, motivated by the recognition that events on the Sun and the consequent conditions in interplanetary space and Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere can have serious impacts on vital technological systems. The fundamental research conducted at universities, government laboratories, and in the private sector has led to tremendous improvements in the ability to forecast space weather events and predict their impacts on human technology and health. The mobilization of the research community that made this progress possible was the result of a series of actions taken by the National Science Foundation (NSF) to build a national program aimed at space weather. The path forward for space weather is to build on those successes through continued involvement of the research community and support for programs aimed at strengthening basic research and education in academia, the private sector, and government laboratories. Investments in space weather are most effective when applied at the intersection of research and applications. Thus, to achieve the goals set forth originally by the National Space Weather Program, the research community must be fully engaged in the planning, implementation, and execution of space weather activities, currently being coordinated by the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation Subcommittee under the National Science and Technology Council.

The Research-to-Operations-to-Research Cycle at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center

Science.gov (United States)

Singer, H. J.

2017-12-01

The provision of actionable space weather products and services by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center relies on observations, models and scientific understanding of our dynamic space environment. It also depends on a deep understanding of the systems and capabilities that are vulnerable to space weather, as well as national and international partnerships that bring together resources, skills and applications to support space weather forecasters and customers. While these activities have been evolving over many years, in October 2015, with the release of the National Space Weather Strategy and National Space Weather Action Plan (NSWAP) by National Science and Technology Council in the Executive Office of the President, there is a new coordinated focus on ensuring the Nation is prepared to respond to and recover from severe space weather storms. One activity highlighted in the NSWAP is the Operations to Research (O2R) and Research to Operations (R2O) process. In this presentation we will focus on current R2O and O2R activities that advance our ability to serve those affected by space weather and give a vision for future programs. We will also provide examples of recent research results that lead to improved operational capabilities, lessons learned in the transition of research to operations, and challenges for both the science and operations communities.

Ionospheric research for space weather service support

Science.gov (United States)

Stanislawska, Iwona; Gulyaeva, Tamara; Dziak-Jankowska, Beata

2016-07-01

Knowledge of the behavior of the ionosphere is very important for space weather services. A wide variety of ground based and satellite existing and future systems (communications, radar, surveillance, intelligence gathering, satellite operation, etc) is affected by the ionosphere. There are the needs for reliable and efficient support for such systems against natural hazard and minimalization of the risk failure. The joint research Project on the 'Ionospheric Weather' of IZMIRAN and SRC PAS is aimed to provide on-line the ionospheric parameters characterizing the space weather in the ionosphere. It is devoted to science, techniques and to more application oriented areas of ionospheric investigation in order to support space weather services. The studies based on data mining philosophy increasing the knowledge of ionospheric physical properties, modelling capabilities and gain applications of various procedures in ionospheric monitoring and forecasting were concerned. In the framework of the joint Project the novel techniques for data analysis, the original system of the ionospheric disturbance indices and their implementation for the ionosphere and the ionospheric radio wave propagation are developed since 1997. Data of ionosonde measurements and results of their forecasting for the ionospheric observatories network, the regional maps and global ionospheric maps of total electron content from the navigational satellite system (GNSS) observations, the global maps of the F2 layer peak parameters (foF2, hmF2) and W-index of the ionospheric variability are provided at the web pages of SRC PAS and IZMIRAN. The data processing systems include analysis and forecast of geomagnetic indices ap and kp and new eta index applied for the ionosphere forecasting. For the first time in the world the new products of the W-index maps analysis are provided in Catalogues of the ionospheric storms and sub-storms and their association with the global geomagnetic Dst storms is

Taking Risks for the Future of Space Weather Forecasting, Research, and Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Jaynes, A. N.; Baker, D. N.; Kanekal, S. G.; Li, X.; Turner, D. L.

2017-12-01

Taking Risks for the Future of Space Weather Forecasting, Research, and Operations The need for highly improved space weather modeling and monitoring is quickly becoming imperative as our society depends ever more on the sensitive technology that builds and connects our world. Instead of relying primarily on tried and true concepts, academic institutions and funding agencies alike should be focusing on truly new and innovative ways to solve this pressing problem. In this exciting time, where student-led groups can launch CubeSats for under a million dollars and companies like SpaceX are actively reducing the cost-cap of access to space, the space physics community should be pushing the boundaries of what is possible to enhance our understanding of the space environment. Taking great risks in instrumentation, mission concepts, operational development, collaborations, and scientific research is the best way to move our field forward to where it needs to be for the betterment of science and society.

Data Products From Particle Detectors On-Board NOAA's Newest Space Weather Monitor

Science.gov (United States)

Kress, B. T.; Rodriguez, J. V.; Onsager, T. G.

2017-12-01

NOAA's newest Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, GOES-16, was launched on 19 November 2016. Instrumentation on-board GOES-16 includes the new Space Environment In-Situ Suite (SEISS), which has been collecting data since 8 January 2017. SEISS is composed of five magnetospheric particle sensor units: an electrostatic analyzer for measuring 30 eV - 30 keV ions and electrons (MPS-LO), a high energy particle sensor (MPS-HI) that measures keV to MeV electrons and protons, east and west facing Solar and Galactic Proton Sensor (SGPS) units with 13 differential channels between 1-500 MeV, and an Energetic Heavy Ion Sensor (EHIS) that measures 30 species of heavy ions (He-Ni) in five energy bands in the 10-200 MeV/nuc range. Measurement of low energy magnetospheric particles by MPS-LO and heavy ions by EHIS are new capabilities not previously flown on the GOES system. Real-time data from GOES-16 will support space weather monitoring and first-principles space weather modeling by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Space weather level 2+ data products under development at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) include the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) Event Detection algorithm. Legacy components of the SEP event detection algorithm (currently produced by SWPC) include the Solar Radiation Storm Scales. New components will include, e.g., event fluences. New level 2+ data products also include the SEP event Linear Energy Transfer (LET) Algorithm, for transforming energy spectra from EHIS into LET spectra, and the Density and Temperature Moments and Spacecraft Charging algorithm. The moments and charging algorithm identifies electron and ion signatures of spacecraft surface (frame) charging in the MPS-LO fluxes. Densities and temperatures from MPS-LO will also be used to support a magnetopause crossing detection algorithm. The new data products will provide real-time indicators of potential radiation hazards for the satellite

Space-weathering processes and products on volatile-rich asteroids

Science.gov (United States)

Britt, D.; Schelling, P.; Consolmagno, G.; Bradley, T.

2014-07-01

Space weathering is a generic term for the effects on atmosphereless solid bodies in the solar system from a range of processes associated with direct exposure to the space environment. These include impact processes (shock, vaporization, fragmentation, heating, melting, and ejecta formation), radiation damage (from galactic and solar cosmic rays), solar-wind effects (irradiation, ion implantation, and sputtering), and the chemical reactions driven by these processes. The classic example of space weathering is the formation of the lunar spectral red slope associated with the production of nanophase Fe (npFe0) in the dusty lunar regolith (C.R. Chapman, 2004, Annual Review of Earth & Planet. Sci. 32, C.M. Pieters, 2000, MAPS 35). Similar npFe0 has been recovered from asteroid (25143) Itokawa and some asteroid classes do exhibit modest spectral red slopes (T. Noguchi, 2011, Science 333). Space weathering can be thought of as driven by a combination of the chemical environment of space (hard vacuum, low oxygen fugacity, solar-wind implantation of hydrogen) along with thermal energy supplied by micrometeorite impacts. The forward modeling of space weathering as thermodynamically-driven decomposition of common rock-forming minerals suggests the production of a range of daughter products: (1) The silicate products typically lose oxygen, other volatile elements (i.e., sulfur and sodium), and metallic cations, producing minerals that are typically more disordered and less optically active than the original parent materials. (2) The decomposed metallic cations form in nano-sized blebs including npFe0, on the surfaces or in condensing rims of mineral grains. This creates a powerful optical component as seen in the lunar red slope. Surfaces with exposed npFe0 are an ideal environment for catalyzing further reactions. (3) The liberated volatile elements and gases (O, S, Na) may form an observable exosphere (e.g., Moon and Mercury) and can either escape from the body or

Lanzerotti to Head New AGU Journal on Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Lifland, Jonathan

Louis J. Lanzerotti has been named editor of a new AGU online publication devoted to the emerging field of near-Earth space conditions and their effects on technical systems. Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications, will be the first journal dedicated solely to the subject, and will include peer-reviewed research, as well as news, features, and opinion articles. A quarterly magazine digest will also be published from the online edition and distributed free of charge to space weather professionals. Lanzerotti, a longtime AGU member who was elected an AGU Fellow in 1985, is currently a consulting physicist at Lucent Technologies Bell Laboratories, and a distinguished research professor at the New Jersey Institute of Technology. He also serves on the governing board of the American Institute of Physics. He is author or co-author of more than 500 publications, including many related to space weather and its effects on communications.

Mercury's Weather-Beaten Surface: Understanding Mercury in the Context of Lunar and Asteroidal Space Weathering Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Domingue, Deborah L.; Chapman, Clark. R.; Killen, Rosemary M.; Zurbuchen, Thomas H.; Gilbert, Jason A.; Sarantos, Menelaos; Benna, Mehdi; Slavin, James A.; Schriver, David; Travnicek, Pavel M.;

Tool for evaluating the evolution Space Weather Regional Warning Centers under the innovation point of view: the Case Study of the Embrace Space Weather Program Early Stages

Science.gov (United States)

Denardini, Clezio Marcos

2016-07-01

We have developed a tool for measuring the evolutional stage of the space weather regional warning centers using the approach of the innovative evolution starting from the perspective presented by Figueiredo (2009, Innovation Management: Concepts, metrics and experiences of companies in Brazil. Publisher LTC, Rio de Janeiro - RJ). It is based on measuring the stock of technological skills needed to perform a certain task that is (or should) be part of the scope of a space weather center. It also addresses the technological capacity for innovation considering the accumulation of technological and learning capabilities, instead of the usual international indices like number of registered patents. Based on this definition, we have developed a model for measuring the capabilities of the Brazilian Study and Monitoring Program Space Weather (Embrace), a program of the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), which has gone through three national stages of development and an international validation step. This program was created in 2007 encompassing competence from five divisions of INPE in order to carry out the data collection and maintenance of the observing system in space weather; to model processes of the Sun-Earth system; to provide real-time information and to forecast space weather; and provide diagnostic their effects on different technological systems. In the present work, we considered the issues related to the innovation of micro-processes inherent to the nature of the Embrace program, not the macro-economic processes, despite recognizing the importance of these. During the development phase, the model was submitted to five scientists/managers from five different countries member of the International Space Environment Service (ISES) who presented their evaluations, concerns and suggestions. It was applied to the Embrace program through an interview form developed to be answered by professional members of regional warning centers. Based on the returning

Using Science Data and Models for Space Weather Forecasting - Challenges and Opportunities

Science.gov (United States)

Hesse, Michael; Pulkkinen, Antti; Zheng, Yihua; Maddox, Marlo; Berrios, David; Taktakishvili, Sandro; Kuznetsova, Masha; Chulaki, Anna; Lee, Hyesook; Mullinix, Rick;

From Early Exploration to Space Weather Forecasts: Canada's Geomagnetic Odyssey

Science.gov (United States)

Lam, Hing-Lan

2011-05-01

Canada is a region ideally suited for the study of space weather: The north magnetic pole is encompassed within its territory, and the auroral oval traverses its vast landmass from east to west. Magnetic field lines link the country directly to the outer magnetosphere. In light of this geographic suitability, it has been a Canadian tradition to install ground monitors to remotely sense the space above Canadian territory. The beginning of this tradition dates back to 1840, when Edward Sabine, a key figure in the “magnetic crusade” to establish magnetic observatories throughout the British Empire in the nineteenth century, founded the first Canadian magnetic observatory on what is now the campus of the University of Toronto, 27 years before the birth of Canada. This observatory, which later became the Toronto Magnetic and Meteorological Observatory, marked the beginning of the Canadian heritage of installing magnetic stations and other ground instruments in the years to come. This extensive network of ground-based measurement devices, coupled with space-based measurements in more modern times, has enabled Canadian researchers to contribute significantly to studies related to space weather.

Space Weather Influence on Relative Motion Control using the Touchless Electrostatic Tractor

Science.gov (United States)

Hogan, Erik A.; Schaub, Hanspeter

2016-09-01

With recent interest in the use of electrostatic forces for contactless tugging and attitude control of noncooperative objects for orbital servicing and active debris mitigation, the need for a method of remote charge control arises. In this paper, the use of a directed electron beam for remote charge control is considered in conjunction with the relative motion control. A tug vehicle emits an electron beam onto a deputy object, charging it negatively. At the same time, the tug is charged positively due to beam emission, resulting in an attractive electrostatic force. The relative position feedback control between the tug and the passive debris object is studied subject to the charging being created through an electron beam. Employing the nominal variations of the GEO space weather conditions across longitude slots, two electrostatic tugging strategies are considered. First, the electron beam current is adjusted throughout the orbit in order to maximize this resulting electrostatic force. This open-loop control strategy compensates for changes in the nominally expected local space weather environment in the GEO region to adjust for fluctuations in the local plasma return currents. Second, the performance impact of using a fixed electron beam current on the electrostatic tractor is studied if the same natural space weather variations are assumed. The fixed electron beam current shows a minor performance penalty (<5 %) while providing a much simpler implementation that does not require any knowledge of local space weather conditions.

Asteroid age distributions determined by space weathering and collisional evolution models

Science.gov (United States)

Willman, Mark; Jedicke, Robert

2011-01-01

We provide evidence of consistency between the dynamical evolution of main belt asteroids and their color evolution due to space weathering. The dynamical age of an asteroid's surface (Bottke, W.F., Durda, D.D., Nesvorný, D., Jedicke, R., Morbidelli, A., Vokrouhlický, D., Levison, H. [2005]. Icarus 175 (1), 111-140; Nesvorný, D., Jedicke, R., Whiteley, R.J., Ivezić, Ž. [2005]. Icarus 173, 132-152) is the time since its last catastrophic disruption event which is a function of the object's diameter. The age of an S-complex asteroid's surface may also be determined from its color using a space weathering model (e.g. Willman, M., Jedicke, R., Moskovitz, N., Nesvorný, D., Vokrouhlický, D., Mothé-Diniz, T. [2010]. Icarus 208, 758-772; Jedicke, R., Nesvorný, D., Whiteley, R.J., Ivezić, Ž., Jurić, M. [2004]. Nature 429, 275-277; Willman, M., Jedicke, R., Nesvorny, D., Moskovitz, N., Ivezić, Ž., Fevig, R. [2008]. Icarus 195, 663-673. We used a sample of 95 S-complex asteroids from SMASS and obtained their absolute magnitudes and u, g, r, i, z filter magnitudes from SDSS. The absolute magnitudes yield a size-derived age distribution. The u, g, r, i, z filter magnitudes lead to the principal component color which yields a color-derived age distribution by inverting our color-age relationship, an enhanced version of the 'dual τ' space weathering model of Willman et al. (2010). We fit the size-age distribution to the enhanced dual τ model and found characteristic weathering and gardening times of τw = 2050 ± 80 Myr and τg=4400-500+700Myr respectively. The fit also suggests an initial principal component color of -0.05 ± 0.01 for fresh asteroid surface with a maximum possible change of the probable color due to weathering of Δ PC = 1.34 ± 0.04. Our predicted color of fresh asteroid surface matches the color of fresh ordinary chondritic surface of PC1 = 0.17 ± 0.39.

Satellite navigation—Amazing technology but insidious risk: Why everyone needs to understand space weather

Science.gov (United States)

Hapgood, Mike

2017-04-01

Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) are one of the technological wonders of the modern world. Popularly known as satellite navigation, these systems have provided global access to precision location and timing services and have thereby stimulated advances in industry and consumer services, including all forms of transport, telecommunications, financial trading, and even the synchronization of power grids. But this wonderful technology is at risk from natural phenomena in the form of space weather. GNSS signals experience a slight delay as they pass through the ionosphere. This delay varies with space weather conditions and is the most significant source of error for GNSS. Scientific efforts to correct these errors have stimulated billions of dollars of investment in systems that provide accurate correction data for suitably equipped GNSS receivers in a growing number of regions around the world. This accuracy is essential for GNSS use by aircraft and ships. Space weather also provides a further occasional but severe risk to GNSS: an extreme space weather event may deny access to GNSS as ionospheric scintillation scrambles the radio signals from satellites, and rapid ionospheric changes outstrip the ability of error correction systems to supply accurate corrections. It is vital that GNSS users have a backup for such occasions, even if it is only to hunker down and weather the storm.

High resolution solar observations in the context of space weather prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Guo

Space weather has a great impact on the Earth and human life. It is important to study and monitor active regions on the solar surface and ultimately to predict space weather based on the Sun's activity. In this study, a system that uses the full power of speckle masking imaging by parallel processing to obtain high-spatial resolution images of the solar surface in near real-time has been developed and built. The application of this system greatly improves the ability to monitor the evolution of solar active regions and to predict the adverse effects of space weather. The data obtained by this system have also been used to study fine structures on the solar surface and their effects on the upper solar atmosphere. A solar active region has been studied using high resolution data obtained by speckle masking imaging. Evolution of a pore in an active region presented. Formation of a rudimentary penumbra is studied. The effects of the change of the magnetic fields on the upper level atmosphere is discussed. Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have a great impact on space weather. To study the relationship between CMEs and filament disappearance, a list of 431 filament and prominence disappearance events has been compiled. Comparison of this list with CME data obtained by satellite has shown that most filament disappearances seem to have no corresponding CME events. Even for the limb events, only thirty percent of filament disappearances are associated with CMEs. A CME event that was observed on March 20, 2000 has been studied in detail. This event did not show the three-parts structure of typical CMEs. The kinematical and morphological properties of this event were examined.

Space plasma observations - observations of solar-terrestrial environment. Space Weather Forecast

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sagawa, Eiichi; Akioka, Maki

1996-01-01

The space environment becomes more important than ever before because of the expansion in the utilization of near-earth space and the increase in the vulnerability of large scale systems on the ground such as electrical power grids. The concept of the Space Weather Forecast program emerged from the accumulation of understanding on basic physical processes and from our activities as one of the regional warning centers of the international network of space environment services. (author)

Experts warn against cutting NOAA Space Weather Center

Science.gov (United States)

Showstack, Randy

A well-timed congressional hearing, coming in the midst of fierce geomagnetic storms, could help to restore funding to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Environment Center (SEC).The center, which is the nation's official source of space weather alerts and warnings, currently is funded at $5.24 million for fiscal year 2003. That amount is $2 million less than it received the previous year. The Bush Administration has requested $8.02 million in funding. The appropriations bill, for the departments of Commerce, Justice, and State for fiscal year 2004, passed on 23 July by the House of Representatives, calls for funding the SEC at the $5.29 million level.

Cause and Properties of the Extreme Space Weather Event of 2012 July 23

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Y. D.; Luhmann, J. G.; Kajdic, P.; Kilpua, E.; Lugaz, N.; Nitta, N.; Lavraud, B.; Bale, S. D.; Farrugia, C. J.; Galvin, A. B.

2013-12-01

Extreme space weather refers to extreme conditions in space driven by solar eruptions and subsequent disturbances in interplanetary space, or otherwise called solar superstorms. Understanding extreme space weather events is becoming ever more vital, as the vulnerability of our society and its technological infrastructure to space weather has increased dramatically. Instances of extreme space weather, however, are very rare by definition and therefore are difficult to study. Here we report and investigate an extreme event, which occurred on 2012 July 23 with a maximum speed of about 3050 km/s near the Sun. This event, with complete modern remote sensing and in situ observations from multiple vantage points, provides an unprecedented opportunity to study the cause and consequences of extreme space weather. It produced a superfast shock with a peak solar wind speed of 2246 km/s and a superstrong magnetic cloud with a peak magnetic field of 109 nT observed near 1 AU at STEREO A. The record solar wind speed and magnetic field would produce a record geomagnetic storm since the space era with a minimum Dst of -1200 - -600 nT, if this event hit the Earth. We demonstrate how successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be enhanced into a solar superstorm as they interact en route from the Sun to 1 AU. These results not only provide a benchmark for studies of extreme space weather, but also present a new view of how an extreme space weather event can be generated from usual solar eruptions.

Mercury's Weather-Beaten Surface: Understanding Mercury in the Context of Lunar and Asteroid Space Weathering Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Dominque, Deborah L.; Chapman, Clark R.; Killen, Rosemary M.; Zurbuchen, Thomas H.; Gilbert, Jason A.; Sarantos, Menelaos; Benna, Mehdi; Slavin, James A.; Orlando, Thomas M.; Schriver, David;

The application of heliospheric imaging to space weather operations: Lessons learned from published studies

Science.gov (United States)

Harrison, Richard A.; Davies, Jackie A.; Biesecker, Doug; Gibbs, Mark

2017-08-01

The field of heliospheric imaging has matured significantly over the last 10 years—corresponding, in particular, to the launch of NASA's STEREO mission and the successful operation of the heliospheric imager (HI) instruments thereon. In parallel, this decade has borne witness to a marked increase in concern over the potentially damaging effects of space weather on space and ground-based technological assets, and the corresponding potential threat to human health, such that it is now under serious consideration at governmental level in many countries worldwide. Hence, in a political climate that recognizes the pressing need for enhanced operational space weather monitoring capabilities most appropriately stationed, it is widely accepted, at the Lagrangian L1 and L5 points, it is timely to assess the value of heliospheric imaging observations in the context of space weather operations. To this end, we review a cross section of the scientific analyses that have exploited heliospheric imagery—particularly from STEREO/HI—and discuss their relevance to operational predictions of, in particular, coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival at Earth and elsewhere. We believe that the potential benefit of heliospheric images to the provision of accurate CME arrival predictions on an operational basis, although as yet not fully realized, is significant and we assert that heliospheric imagery is central to any credible space weather mission, particularly one located at a vantage point off the Sun-Earth line.

Space Weather Products and Tools Used in Auroral Monitoring and Forecasting at CCMC/SWRC

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Yihua; Rastaetter, Lutz

2015-01-01

Key points discussed in this chapter are (1) the importance of aurora research to scientific advances and space weather applications, (2) space weather products at CCMC that are relevant to aurora monitoring and forecasting, and (3) the need for more effort from the whole community to achieve a better and long-lead-time forecast of auroral activity. Aurora, as manifestations of solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling that occurs in a region of space that is relatively easy to access for sounding rockets, satellites, and other types of observational platforms, serves as a natural laboratory for studying the underlying physics of the complex system. From a space weather application perspective, auroras can cause surface charging of technological assets passing through the region, result in scintillation effects affecting communication and navigation, and cause radar cluttering that hinders military and civilian applications. Indirectly, an aurora and its currents can induce geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) on the ground, which poses major concerns for the wellbeing and operation of power grids, particularly during periods of intense geomagnetic activity. In addition, accurate auroral forecasting is desired for auroral tourism. In this chapter, we first review some of the existing auroral models and discuss past validation efforts. Such efforts are crucial in transitioning a model(s) from research to operations and for further model improvement and development that also benefits scientific endeavors. Then we will focus on products and tools that are used for auroral monitoring and forecasting at the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). As part of the CCMC (Community Coordinated Modeling Center), SWRC has been providing space weather services since 2010.

Challenges for Transitioning Science Research to Space Weather Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Spann, James

2013-01-01

Effectively transitioning science knowledge to useful applications relevant to space weather has become important. The effort to transition scientific knowledge to a useful application is not a research nor is it operations, but an activity that connects two. Successful transitioning must be an intentional effort with a clear goal and measureable outcome. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective, and how in the current environment those can be applied to space weather transition efforts.

Planetary Space Weather Service: Part of the the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Grande, Manuel; Andre, Nicolas

2016-07-01

Over the next four years the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure will set up an entirely new European Planetary Space Weather service (PSWS). Europlanet RI is a part of of Horizon 2020 (EPN2020-RI, http://www.europlanet-2020-ri.eu). The Virtual Access Service, WP5 VA1 "Planetary Space Weather Services" will extend the concepts of space weather and space situational awareness to other planets in our Solar System and in particular to spacecraft that voyage through it. VA1 will make five entirely new 'toolkits' accessible to the research community and to industrial partners planning for space missions: a general planetary space weather toolkit, as well as three toolkits dedicated to the following key planetary environments: Mars (in support ExoMars), comets (building on the expected success of the ESA Rosetta mission), and outer planets (in preparation for the ESA JUICE mission to be launched in 2022). This will give the European planetary science community new methods, interfaces, functionalities and/or plugins dedicated to planetary space weather in the tools and models available within the partner institutes. It will also create a novel event-diary toolkit aiming at predicting and detecting planetary events like meteor showers and impacts. A variety of tools (in the form of web applications, standalone software, or numerical models in various degrees of implementation) are available for tracing propagation of planetary and/or solar events through the Solar System and modelling the response of the planetary environment (surfaces, atmospheres, ionospheres, and magnetospheres) to those events. But these tools were not originally designed for planetary event prediction and space weather applications. So WP10 JRA4 "Planetary Space Weather Services" (PSWS) will provide the additional research and tailoring required to apply them for these purposes. The overall objectives of this Joint Research Aactivities will be to review, test, improve and adapt methods and tools

Space weather monitoring with neutron monitor measurements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Steigies, Christian [Christian-Albrechts-Universitaet zu Kiel (Germany)

2013-07-01

Space Weather affects many areas of the modern society, advance knowledge about space weather events is important to protect personnel and infrastructure. Cosmic Rays (CR) measurements by ground-based Neutron Monitors are influenced by Coronal Mass Ejections (CME), the intensity of the ever present Cosmic Rays is reduced in a Forbush decrease (Fd). In the case of very energetic CMEs, the measured intensity can be significantly increased in a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE). By detecting the anisotropy of the CR environment, a CME can be detected hours before it arrives at Earth. During a GLE the high-energy particles from the Sun can be detected before the more abundant lower energy particles arrive at Earth, thus allowing to take protective measures. Since the beginning of the Neutron Monitor Database (NMDB) project, which has been started in 2008 with funding from the European Commission, real-time data from Neutron Monitors around the world has been made available through one web-portal. We have more than doubled the number of stations providing data since the start of the project to now over 30 stations. The effectiveness of the ALERT applications which are based on NMDB data has been shown by the recent GLE71. We present different applications through which the measurements and different data products are accessible.

Space weathering and the color indexes of minor bodies in the outer Solar System

Science.gov (United States)

Kaňuchová, Zuzana; Brunetto, Rosario; Melita, Mario; Strazzulla, Giovanni

2012-09-01

The surfaces of small bodies in the outer Solar System are rich in organic compounds and carbonaceous refractories mixed with ices and silicates. As made clear by dedicated laboratory experiments space weathering (e.g. energetic ion bombardment) can produce red colored materials starting from bright and spectrally flat ices. In a classical scenario, the space weathering processes “nurture” alter the small bodies surface spectra but are in competition with resurfacing agents that restore the original colors, and the result of these competing processes continuously modifying the surfaces is supposed to be responsible for the observed spectral variety of those small bodies. However an alternative point of view is that the different colors are due to “nature” i.e. to the different primordial composition of different objects. In this paper we present a model, based on laboratory results, that gives an original contribution to the “nature” vs. “nurture” debate by addressing the case of surfaces showing different fractions of rejuvenated vs. space weathered surface, and calculating the corresponding color variations. We will show how a combination of increasing dose coupled to different resurfacing can reproduce the whole range of observations of small outer Solar System bodies. Here we demonstrate, for the first time that objects having a fully weathered material turn back in the color-color diagrams. At the same time, object with the different ratio of pristine and weathered surface areas lay on specific lines in color-color diagrams, if exposed to the same amount of irradiation.

Building resilience of the Global Positioning System to space weather

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, Genene; Kunches, Joseph

2011-12-01

Almost every aspect of the global economy now depends on GPS. Worldwide, nations are working to create a robust Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), which will provide global positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) services for applications such as aviation, electric power distribution, financial exchange, maritime navigation, and emergency management. The U.S. government is examining the vulnerabilities of GPS, and it is well known that space weather events, such as geomagnetic storms, contribute to errors in single-frequency GPS and are a significant factor for differential GPS. The GPS industry has lately begun to recognize that total electron content (TEC) signal delays, ionospheric scintillation, and solar radio bursts can also interfere with daily operations and that these threats grow with the approach of the next solar maximum, expected to occur in 2013. The key challenges raised by these circumstances are, first, to better understand the vulnerability of GPS technologies and services to space weather and, second, to develop policies that will build resilience and mitigate risk.

Modeling extreme (Carrington-type) space weather events using three-dimensional MHD code simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Ngwira, C. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Glocer, A.

2013-12-01

There is growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure and systems. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made towards the modeling of space weather events. Three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, and have played a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for existing global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events that have a ground footprint comparable (or larger) to the Carrington superstorm. Results are presented for an initial simulation run with ``very extreme'' constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated ground induced geoelectric field to such extreme driving conditions. We also discuss the results and what they might mean for the accuracy of the simulations. The model is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in earth conductors such as power transmission grids.

Challenges for Transitioning Science Knowledge to an Operational Environment for Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Spann, James

2012-01-01

Effectively transitioning science knowledge to an operational environment relevant to space weather is critical to meet the civilian and defense needs, especially considering how technologies are advancing and present evolving susceptibilities to space weather impacts. The effort to transition scientific knowledge to a useful application is not a research task nor is an operational activity, but an effort that bridges the two. Successful transitioning must be an intentional effort that has a clear goal for all parties and measureable outcome and deliverable. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective for terrestrial weather and disaster relief efforts, and how those methodologies can be applied to space weather transition efforts.

MAGDAS Project for Space Weather Research and Application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yumoto, Kiyohumi

2009-01-01

The Space Environment Research Center (SERC), Kyushu University, is currently deploying a new ground-based magnetometer network of MAGnetic Data Acqusition System (MAGDAS), in cooperation with about 30 organizations in the world, in order to understand the complex Sun-Earth system for space weather research and application. SERC will conducts MAGDAS observation at 50 stations in the Circum-pan Pacific Magnetometer Network (CPMN) region, and FM-CW radar observation along the 210 deg. magnetic meridian (MM) during the IHY/ILWS/CAWSES periods. This project is actively providing the following space weather monitoring:(1) Global 3-dimensional current system to know electromagnetic coupling of the region 1 and 2 field-aligned currents, auroral electrojet current, Sq current, and equatorial electrojet current. (2) Plasma mass density along the 210 deg. MM to understand plasma environment change during space storms. (3) Ionospheric electric field intensity with 10-sec sampling at L = 1.26 to understand how the external electric field penetrates into the equatorial ionosphere.

Solar origins of space weather and space climate

CERN Document Server

Komm, Rudolf; Pevtsov, Alexei; Leibacher, John

2014-01-01

This topical issue is based on the presentations given at the 26th National Solar Observatory (NSO) Summer Workshop held at the National Solar Observatory/Sacramento Peak, New Mexico, USA from 30 April to 4 May 2012. This unique forum brought together experts in different areas of solar and space physics to help in developing a full picture of the origin of solar phenomena that affect Earth’s technological systems.  The articles include theory, model, and observation research on the origin of the solar activity and its cycle, as well as a discussion on how to incorporate the research into space-weather forecasting tools.  This volume is aimed at graduate students and researchers active in solar physics and space science.  Previously published in Solar Physics, Vol. 289/2, 2014.

Innovative Approaches for the Dissemination of Near Real-time Geostationary Satellite Data for Terrestrial and Space Weather Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Jedlovec, G.; McGrath, K.; Meyer, P. J.; Berndt, E.

2017-12-01

A GOES-R series receiving station has been installed at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to support GOES-16 transition-to-operations projects of NASA's Earth science program and provide a community portal for GOES-16 data access. This receiving station is comprised of a 6.5-meter dish; motor-driven positioners; Quorum feed and demodulator; and three Linux workstations for ingest, processing, display, and subsequent product generation. The Community Satellite Processing Package (CSPP) is used to process GOES Rebroadcast data from the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI), Extreme Ultraviolet and X-ray Irradiance Sensors (EXIS), and Space Environment In-Situ Suite (SEISS) into Level 1b and Level 2 files. GeoTIFFs of the imagery from several of these instruments are ingested into an Esri Arc Enterprise Web Map Service (WMS) server with tiled imagery displayable through a web browser interface or by connecting directly to the WMS with a Geographic Information System software package. These data also drive a basic web interface where users can manually zoom to and animate regions of interest or acquire similar results using a published Application Program Interface. While not as interactive as a WMS-driven interface, this system is much more expeditious with generating and distributing requested imagery. The legacy web capability enacted for the predecessor GOES Imager currently supports approximately 500,000 unique visitors each month. Dissemination capabilities have been refined to support a significantly larger number of anticipated users. The receiving station also supports NASA's Short-term Prediction, Research, and Transition Center's (SPoRT) project activities to dissemination near real-time ABI RGB products to National Weather Service National Centers, including the Satellite Analysis Branch, National Hurricane Center, Ocean Prediction Center, and Weather Prediction Center, where they

Space Weather effects on airline communications in the high latitude regions

Science.gov (United States)

Honary, Farideh

2014-05-01

Efficient air traffic management depends on reliable communications between aircraft and the air traffic control centres at all times. At high latitudes, and especially on polar routing, VHF ground infrastructure does not exist and the aircraft have to rely on HF radio for communications. HF relies on reflections from the ionosphere to achieve long distance communications. Unfortunately the high latitude ionosphere is affected by space weather events. During such events HF radio communication can be severely disrupted and aircraft are forced to use longer low latitude routes with consequent increased flight time, fuel consumption and cost. This presentation describes a new research programme at the University of Lancaster in collaboration with the University of Leicester, Solar Metrics Ltd and Natural Resources Canada for the development of a nowcasting and forecasting HF communications tool designed for the particular needs of civilian airlines. This project funded by EPSRC will access a wide variety of solar and interplanetary measurements to derive a complete picture of space weather disturbances affecting radio absorption and reflection

Internet-accessible real-time weather information system

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Desai, R.G.P.; Joseph, A.; Desa, E.; Mehra, P.; Desa, E.; Gouveia, A.D.

An internet-accessible real-time weather information system has been developed. This system provides real-time accessibility to weather information from a multitude of spatially distributed weather stations. The Internet connectivity also offers...

Space Weather Concerns for All-Electric Propulsion Satellites

Science.gov (United States)

Horne, Richard B.; Pitchford, David

2015-08-01

The introduction of all-electric propulsion satellites is a game changer in the quest for low-cost access to space. It also raises new questions for satellite manufacturers, operators, and the insurance industry regarding the general risks and specifically the threat of adverse space weather. The issues surrounding this new concept were discussed by research scientists and up to 30 representatives from the space industry at a special meeting at the European Space Weather Week held in November 2014. Here we report on the discussions at that meeting. We show that for a satellite undergoing electric orbit raising for 200 days the radiation dose due to electrons is equivalent to approximately 6.7 year operation at geostationary orbit or approximately half the typical design life. We also show that electrons can be injected into the slot region (8000 km) where they pose a risk of satellite internal charging. The results highlight the importance of additional radiation protection. We also discuss the benefits, the operational considerations, the other risks from the Van Allen radiation belts, the new business opportunities for space insurance, and the need for space situation awareness in medium Earth orbit where electric orbit raising takes place.

Geostationary Communications Satellites as Sensors for the Space Weather Environment: Telemetry Event Identification Algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Carlton, A.; Cahoy, K.

2015-12-01

Reliability of geostationary communication satellites (GEO ComSats) is critical to many industries worldwide. The space radiation environment poses a significant threat and manufacturers and operators expend considerable effort to maintain reliability for users. Knowledge of the space radiation environment at the orbital location of a satellite is of critical importance for diagnosing and resolving issues resulting from space weather, for optimizing cost and reliability, and for space situational awareness. For decades, operators and manufacturers have collected large amounts of telemetry from geostationary (GEO) communications satellites to monitor system health and performance, yet this data is rarely mined for scientific purposes. The goal of this work is to acquire and analyze archived data from commercial operators using new algorithms that can detect when a space weather (or non-space weather) event of interest has occurred or is in progress. We have developed algorithms, collectively called SEER (System Event Evaluation Routine), to statistically analyze power amplifier current and temperature telemetry by identifying deviations from nominal operations or other events and trends of interest. This paper focuses on our work in progress, which currently includes methods for detection of jumps ("spikes", outliers) and step changes (changes in the local mean) in the telemetry. We then examine available space weather data from the NOAA GOES and the NOAA-computed Kp index and sunspot numbers to see what role, if any, it might have played. By combining the results of the algorithm for many components, the spacecraft can be used as a "sensor" for the space radiation environment. Similar events occurring at one time across many component telemetry streams may be indicative of a space radiation event or system-wide health and safety concern. Using SEER on representative datasets of telemetry from Inmarsat and Intelsat, we find events that occur across all or many of

State of Art in space weather observational activities and data management in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Stanislawska, Iwona

One of the primary scientific and technical goals of space weather is to produce data in order to investigate the Sun impact on the Earth and its environment. Studies based on data mining philosophy yield increase the knowledge of space weather physical properties, modelling capabilities and gain applications of various procedures in space weather monitoring and forecasting. Exchanging tailored individually and/or jointly data between different entities, storing of the databases and making data accessible for the users is the most important task undertaken by investigators. National activities spread over Europe is currently consolidated pursuant to the terms of effectiveness and individual contributions embedded in joint integrated efforts. The role of COST 724 Action in animation of such a movement is essential. The paper focuses on the analysis of the European availability in the Internet near-real time and historical collections of the European ground based and satellite observations, operational indices and parameters. A detailed description of data delivered is included. The structure of the content is supplied according to the following selection: (1) observations, raw and/or corrected, updated data, (2) resolution, availability of real-time and historical data, (3) products, as the results of models and theory including (a) maps, forecasts and alerts, (b) resolution, availability of real-time and historical data, (4) platforms to deliver data. Characterization of the networking of stations, observatories and space related monitoring systems of data collections is integrated part of the paper. According to these provisions operational systems developed for these purposes is presented and analysed. It concerns measurements, observations and parameters from the theory and models referred to local, regional collections, European and worldwide networks. Techniques used by these organizations to generate the digital content are identified. As the reference pan

Taking Extreme Space Weather to the Milky Way

Science.gov (United States)

Pesnell, W. Dean

2014-06-01

Extreme Space Weather events are large solar flares or geomagnetic storms, which can cause economic damage that cost billions of dollars to recover from. We have few examples of such events; only the Carrington Event (the solar superstorm) has superlatives in three categories: size of solar flare, drop in Dst, and amplitude of aa. Kepler observations show that stars similar to the Sun can have flares releasing thousands of times more energy than an X-class flare. These flares would strongly affect the atmosphere surrounding a planet orbiting such a star. Particle and magnetic field outflows from these stars could also be present. We are investigating the level of solar activity that is necessary to strongly affect the atmosphere of terrestrial planets. We assume that a habitable planet requires an atmosphere with a temperature and composition that is stable in time. Can we then extrapolate results from our solar system to determine a space of stellar parameters in which habitable planets can exist?

Space Weather: The Solar Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Schwenn Rainer

2006-08-01

Full Text Available The term space weather refers to conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and that can affect human life and health. Our modern hi-tech society has become increasingly vulnerable to disturbances from outside the Earth system, in particular to those initiated by explosive events on the Sun: Flares release flashes of radiation that can heat up the terrestrial atmosphere such that satellites are slowed down and drop into lower orbits, solar energetic particles accelerated to near-relativistic energies may endanger astronauts traveling through interplanetary space, and coronal mass ejections are gigantic clouds of ionized gas ejected into interplanetary space that after a few hours or days may hit the Earth and cause geomagnetic storms. In this review, I describe the several chains of actions originating in our parent star, the Sun, that affect Earth, with particular attention to the solar phenomena and the subsequent effects in interplanetary space.

Space Weather: The Solar Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Schwenn, Rainer

2006-08-01

The term space weather refers to conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and that can affect human life and health. Our modern hi-tech society has become increasingly vulnerable to disturbances from outside the Earth system, in particular to those initiated by explosive events on the Sun: Flares release flashes of radiation that can heat up the terrestrial atmosphere such that satellites are slowed down and drop into lower orbits, solar energetic particles accelerated to near-relativistic energies may endanger astronauts traveling through interplanetary space, and coronal mass ejections are gigantic clouds of ionized gas ejected into interplanetary space that after a few hours or days may hit the Earth and cause geomagnetic storms. In this review, I describe the several chains of actions originating in our parent star, the Sun, that affect Earth, with particular attention to the solar phenomena and the subsequent effects in interplanetary space.

Space weathering of small Koronis family members

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Cristina A.; Rivkin, Andrew S.; Trilling, David E.; Enga, Marie-therese; Grier, Jennifer A.

2011-03-01

The space weathering process and its implications for the relationships between S- and Q-type asteroids and ordinary chondrite meteorites is an often debated topic in asteroid science. Q-type asteroids have been shown to display the best spectral match to ordinary chondrites (McFadden, L.A., Gaffey, M.J., McCord, T.B. [1985]. Science 229, 160-163). While the Q-types and ordinary chondrites share some spectral features with S-type asteroids, the S-types have significantly redder spectral slopes than the Q-types in visible and near-infrared wavelengths. This reddening of spectral slope is attributed to the effects of space weathering on the observed surface composition. The analysis by Binzel et al. (Binzel, R.P., Rivkin, A.S., Stuart, J.S., Harris, A.W., Bus, S.J., Burbine, T.H. [2004]. Icarus 170, 259-294) provided a missing link between the Q- and S-type bodies in near-Earth space by showing a reddening of spectral slope in objects from 0.1 to 5 km that corresponded to a transition from Q-type to S-type asteroid spectra, implying that size, and therefore surface age, is related to the relationship between S- and Q-types. The existence of Q-type asteroids in the main-belt was not confirmed until Mothé-Diniz and Nesvorny (Mothé-Diniz, T., Nesvorny, D. [2008]. Astron. Astrophys. 486, L9-L12) found them in young S-type clusters. The young age of these families suggest that the unweathered surface could date to the formation of the family. This leads to the question of whether older S-type main-belt families can contain Q-type objects and display evidence of a transition from Q- to S-type. To answer this question we have carried out a photometric survey of the Koronis family using the Kitt Peak 2.1 m telescope. This provides a unique opportunity to compare the effects of the space weathering process on potentially ordinary chondrite-like bodies within a population of identical initial conditions. We find a trend in spectral slope for objects 1-5 km that shows the

Nonlinear dynamics of the magnetosphere and space weather

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, A. Surjalal

1996-01-01

The solar wind-magnetosphere system exhibits coherence on the global scale and such behavior can arise from nonlinearity on the dynamics. The observational time series data were used together with phase space reconstruction techniques to analyze the magnetospheric dynamics. Analysis of the solar wind, auroral electrojet and Dst indices showed low dimensionality of the dynamics and accurate prediction can be made with an input/output model. The predictability of the magnetosphere in spite of the apparent complexity arises from its dynamical synchronism with the solar wind. The electrodynamic coupling between different regions of the magnetosphere yields its coherent, low dimensional behavior. The data from multiple satellites and ground stations can be used to develop a spatio-temporal model that identifies the coupling between different regions. These nonlinear dynamical models provide space weather forecasting capabilities.

The USGS Geomagnetism Program and its role in Space-Weather Monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Love, Jeffrey J.; Finn, Carol A.

2011-01-01

Magnetic storms result from the dynamic interaction of the solar wind with the coupled magnetospheric-ionospheric system. Large storms represent a potential hazard for the activities and infrastructure of a modern, technologically based society [Baker et al., 2008]; they can cause the loss of radio communications, reduce the accuracy of global positioning systems, damage satellite electronics and affect satellite operations, increase pipeline corrosion, and induce voltage surges in electric power grids, causing blackouts. So while space weather starts with the Sun and is driven by the solar wind, it is on, or just above, the surface of the Earth that the practical effects of space weather are realized. Therefore, ground-based sensor networks, including magnetic observatories [Love, 2008], play an important role in space weather monitoring.

Modeling extreme "Carrington-type" space weather events using three-dimensional global MHD simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Glocer, Alex

2014-06-01

There is a growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made toward the first-principles modeling of space weather events, and three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, thereby playing a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for the modern global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events with a Dst footprint comparable to the Carrington superstorm of September 1859 based on the estimate by Tsurutani et. al. (2003). Results are presented for a simulation run with "very extreme" constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated induced geoelectric field on the ground to such extreme driving conditions. The model setup is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event of Halloween storm October 2003 to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw additional guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model setup is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in ground-based conductor systems such as power transmission grids. Therefore, our ultimate goal is to explore the level of geoelectric fields that can be induced from an assumed storm of the reported magnitude, i.e., Dst˜=-1600 nT.

Maintaining US Space Weather Capabilities after DMSP: Research to Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Machuzak, J. S.; Gentile, L. C.; Burke, W. J.; Holeman, E. G.; Ober, D. M.; Wilson, G. R.

2012-12-01

The first Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) spacecraft was launched in 1972; the last is scheduled to fly in 2020. Presently, there is no replacement for the space-weather monitoring sensors that now fly on DMSP. The present suite has provided comprehensive, long-term records that constitute a critical component of the US space weather corporate memory. Evolving operational needs and research accomplishments justify continued collection of space environmental data. Examples include measurements to: (1) Monitor the Dst index in real time as a driver of next-generation satellite drag models; (2) Quantify electromagnetic energy fluxes from deep space to the ionosphere/ thermosphere that heat neutrals, drive disturbance-dynamo winds and degrade precise orbit determinations; (3) Determine strengths of stormtime electric fields at high and low latitudes that lead to severe blackouts and spacecraft anomalies; (4) Specify variability of plasma density irregularities, equatorial plasma bubbles, and the Appleton anomaly to improve reliability of communication, navigation and surveillance links; (5) Characterize energetic particle fluxes responsible for auroral clutter and radar degradation; (6) Map regions of L-Band scintillation for robust GPS applications; and (7) Update the World Magnetic Field Model needed to maintain guidance system superiority. These examples illustrate the utility of continued space environment awareness. Comprehensive assessments of both operational requirements and research advances are needed to make informed selections of sensors and spacecraft that support future capabilities. A proposed sensor set and satellite constellation to provide the needed measurement capabilities will be presented.

Global Positioning System Energetic Particle Data: The Next Space Weather Data Revolution

Science.gov (United States)

Knipp, Delores J.; Giles, Barbara L.

2016-01-01

The Global Positioning System (GPS) has revolutionized the process of getting from point A to point Band so much more. A large fraction of the worlds population relies on GPS (and its counterparts from other nations) for precision timing, location, and navigation. Most GPS users are unaware that the spacecraft providing the signals they rely on are operating in a very harsh space environment the radiation belts where energetic particles trapped in Earths magnetic field dash about at nearly the speed of light. These subatomic particles relentlessly pummel GPS satellites. So by design, every GPS satellite and its sensors are radiation hardened. Each spacecraft carries particle detectors that provide health and status data to system operators. Although these data reveal much about the state of the space radiation environment, heretofore they have been available only to system operators and supporting scientists. Research scientists have long sought a policy shift to allow more general access. With the release of the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan organized by the White House Office of Science Technology Policy (OSTP) a sample of these data have been made available to space weather researchers. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and the National Center for Environmental Information released a months worth of GPS energetic particle data from an interval of heightened space weather activity in early 2014 with the hope of stimulating integration of these data sets into the research arena. Even before the public data release GPS support scientists from LANL showed the extraordinary promise of these data.

Verification of space weather forecasts at the UK Met Office

Science.gov (United States)

Bingham, S.; Sharpe, M.; Jackson, D.; Murray, S.

2017-12-01

The UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) has produced space weather guidance twice a day since its official opening in 2014. Guidance includes 4-day probabilistic forecasts of X-ray flares, geomagnetic storms, high-energy electron events and high-energy proton events. Evaluation of such forecasts is important to forecasters, stakeholders, model developers and users to understand the performance of these forecasts and also strengths and weaknesses to enable further development. Met Office terrestrial near real-time verification systems have been adapted to provide verification of X-ray flare and geomagnetic storm forecasts. Verification is updated daily to produce Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and Reliability diagrams, and rolling Ranked Probability Skill Scores (RPSSs) thus providing understanding of forecast performance and skill. Results suggest that the MOSWOC issued X-ray flare forecasts are usually not statistically significantly better than a benchmark climatological forecast (where the climatology is based on observations from the previous few months). By contrast, the issued geomagnetic storm activity forecast typically performs better against this climatological benchmark.

Upper-atmospheric Space and Earth Weather eXperiment (USEWX)

Science.gov (United States)

Wiley, Scott Lee

2014-01-01

This presentation is an update from the 2011 and 2012 talks given to Teachers in Space. These slides include some recent space weather issues that are hot topics, including the adding our USEWX and USEWX partners, and information relevant to GSFC researchers.

An Examination of the Space Weathering Patina of Lunar Rock 76015

Science.gov (United States)

Noble, S.; Chrisoffersen, R.; Rahman, Z.

2011-01-01

Space weathering discussions have generally centered around soils but exposed rocks will also incur the effects of weathering. Rocks have much longer surface lifetimes than an individual soil grain and thus record a longer history of exposure. By studying the weathering products which have built up on a rock surface, we can gain a deeper perspective on the weathering process and better assess the relative importance of various weathering components. The weathered coating, or patina, of the lunar rock 76015 has been previously studied under SEM and also by TEM using ultramicrotome sample preparation methods. However, to really understand the products involved in creating these coatings, it is helpful to examine the patina in cross section, something which is now possible though the use of Focused Ion Beam (FIB) sample prep techniques, which allows us to preserve intact the delicate stratigraphy of the patina coating and provides a unique cross-sectional view of the space weathering process. Several samples have been prepared from the rock and the coatings are found to be quite variable in thickness and composition from one sample to the next.

National Space Weather Program Releases Strategy for the New Decade

Science.gov (United States)

Williamson, Samuel P.; Babcock, Michael R.; Bonadonna, Michael F.

2010-12-01

The National Space Weather Program (NSWP; http://www.nswp.gov) is a U.S. federal government interagency program established by the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM) in 1995 to coordinate, collaborate, and leverage capabilities across stakeholder agencies, including space weather researchers, service providers, users, policy makers, and funding agencies, to improve the performance of the space weather enterprise for the United States and its international partners. Two important documents released in recent months have established a framework and the vision, goals, and strategy to move the enterprise forward in the next decade. The U.S. federal agency members of the NSWP include the departments of Commerce, Defense, Energy, Interior, State, and Transportation, plus NASA, the National Science Foundation, and observers from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The OFCM is also working with the Department of Homeland Security's Federal Emergency Management Agency to formally join the program.

Parameters of electromagnetic weather in near-terrestrial space determining the effects on biosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oraevskij, V.N.; Golyshev, S.A.; Levitin, A.E.; Breus, T.K.; Ivanova, S.V.; Komarov, F.I.; Rapoport, S.I.

1995-01-01

Space and time distribution of the electric and magnetic fields and current systems in the near terrestrial space (electromagnetic weather) were studied in connection with ambulance calls in Moscow, Russia, related to the cardia-vascular diseases. The some examples of the correlations between the solar activity parameters and geomagnetic variations and the events of the extreme number of ambulance calls were presented. 4 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs

The Sun/Earth System and Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Poland, Arthur I.; Fox, Nicola; Lucid, Shannon

2003-01-01

Solar variability and solar activity are now seen as significant drivers with respect to the Earth and human technology systems. Observations over the last 10 years have significantly advanced our understanding of causes and effects in the Sun/Earth system. On a practical level the interactions between the Sun and Earth dictate how we build our systems in space (communications satellites, GPS, etc), and some of our ground systems (power grids). This talk will be about the Sun/Earth system: how it changes with time, its magnetic interactions, flares, the solar wind, and how the Sun effects human systems. Data will be presented from some current spacecraft which show, for example, how we are able to currently give warnings to the scientific community, the Government and industry about space storms and how this data has improved our physical understanding of processes on the Sun and in the magnetosphere. The scientific advances provided by our current spacecraft has led to a new program in NASA to develop a 'Space Weather' system called 'Living With a Star'. The current plan for the 'Living With a Star' program will also be presented.

Forecasting space weather: Can new econometric methods improve accuracy?

Science.gov (United States)

Reikard, Gordon

2011-06-01

Space weather forecasts are currently used in areas ranging from navigation and communication to electric power system operations. The relevant forecast horizons can range from as little as 24 h to several days. This paper analyzes the predictability of two major space weather measures using new time series methods, many of them derived from econometrics. The data sets are the A p geomagnetic index and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The methods tested include nonlinear regressions, neural networks, frequency domain algorithms, GARCH models (which utilize the residual variance), state transition models, and models that combine elements of several techniques. While combined models are complex, they can be programmed using modern statistical software. The data frequency is daily, and forecasting experiments are run over horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. Two major conclusions stand out. First, the frequency domain method forecasts the A p index more accurately than any time domain model, including both regressions and neural networks. This finding is very robust, and holds for all forecast horizons. Combining the frequency domain method with other techniques yields a further small improvement in accuracy. Second, the neural network forecasts the solar flux more accurately than any other method, although at short horizons (2 days or less) the regression and net yield similar results. The neural net does best when it includes measures of the long-term component in the data.

Ionospheric effects during severe space weather events seen in ionospheric service data products

Science.gov (United States)

Jakowski, Norbert; Danielides, Michael; Mayer, Christoph; Borries, Claudia

Space weather effects are closely related to complex perturbation processes in the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere systems, initiated by enhanced solar energy input. To understand and model complex space weather processes, different views on the same subject are helpful. One of the ionosphere key parameters is the Total Electron Content (TEC) which provides a first or-der approximation of the ionospheric range error in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) applications. Additionally, horizontal gradients and time rate of change of TEC are important for estimating the perturbation degree of the ionosphere. TEC maps can effectively be gener-ated using ground based GNSS measurements from global receiver networks. Whereas ground based GNSS measurements provide good horizontal resolution, space based radio occultation measurements can complete the view by providing information on the vertical plasma density distribution. The combination of ground based TEC and vertical sounding measurements pro-vide essential information on the shape of the vertical electron density profile by computing the equivalent slab thickness at the ionosonde station site. Since radio beacon measurements at 150/400 MHz are well suited to trace the horizontal structure of Travelling Ionospheric Dis-turbances (TIDs), these data products essentially complete GNSS based TEC mapping results. Radio scintillation data products, characterising small scale irregularities in the ionosphere, are useful to estimate the continuity and availability of transionospheric radio signals. The different data products are addressed while discussing severe space weather events in the ionosphere e.g. events in October/November 2003. The complementary view of different near real time service data products is helpful to better understand the complex dynamics of ionospheric perturbation processes and to forecast the development of parameters customers are interested in.

Space Weather Research Presented at the 2007 AGU Fall Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Mohi

2007-12-01

AGU's 47th annual Fall Meeting, held 10-14 December 2007 in San Francisco, Calif., was the largest gathering of geoscientists in the Union's history. More than 14,600 people attended. The Space Physics and Aeronomy (SPA) sections sported excellent turnout, with more than 1300 abstracts submitted over 114 poster and oral sessions. Topics discussed that related to space weather were manifold: the nature of the Sun-Earth system revealed through newly launched satellites, observations and models of ionospheric convection, advances in the understanding of radiation belt physics, Sun-Earth coupling via energetic coupling, data management and archiving into virtual observatories, and the applications of all this research to space weather forecasting and prediction.

Space weather and human deaths distribution: 25 years' observation (Lithuania, 1989-2013).

Science.gov (United States)

Stoupel, Eliyahu G; Petrauskiene, Jadvyga; Kalediene, Ramune; Sauliune, Skirmante; Abramson, Evgeny; Shochat, Tzippy

2015-09-01

Human health is affected by space weather component [solar (SA), geomagnetic (GMA), cosmic ray (CRA) - neutrons, space proton flux] activity levels. The aim of this study was to check possible links between timing of human (both genders) monthly deaths distribution and space weather activity. Human deaths distribution in the Republic of Lithuania from 1989 to 2013 (25 years, i.e., 300 consecutive months) was studied, which included 1,050,503 deaths (549,764 male, 500,739 female). Pearson correlation coefficients (r) and their probabilities (p) were obtained for years: months 1-12, sunspot number, smoothed sunspot number, solar flux (2800 MGH, 10.7 cm), adjusted solar flux for SA; A, C indices of GMA; neutron activity at the earth's surface (imp/min) for CRA. The cosmophysical data were obtained from space science institutions in the USA, Russia and Finland. The mentioned physical parameters were compared with the total number of deaths, deaths from ischemic heart disease (n=376,074), stroke (n=132,020), non-cardiovascular causes (n=542,409), accidents (n=98,805), traffic accidents (n=21,261), oncology (n=193,017), diabetes mellitus (n=6631) and suicide (n=33,072). Space factors were interrelated as follows for the considered period: CRA was inversely related to SA and GMA, CRA/SA (r=-0.86, p>0.0001), CRA/GMA (r=-0.70, pweather component activity. Extreme levels of activities of both groups (SA, GMA, and opposite CRA - neutron) are related to some health risks. In the considered period, there were relatively few GMA storms and low GMA was dominating, accompanied by higher CRA (neutron) activity. The ways of action of the components of space weather on the human body need additional studies. There is a special need for the prevention of rising cerebral vascular accidents and oncology malignancies as the causes of death.

Nanosatellite standardization and modularization as an asset to space weather measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Voss, D.; Carssow, D.; Fritz, T. A.; Voss, H. D.

2009-12-01

The continuity of measurements from satellites in the Magnetosphere and Ionosphere is essential for the space weather community as pointed out by the US National Space Weather Program. Challenges to space budgets and the growing dependence upon space weather prediction have opened the door for extremely small satellites to play a large role in making these measurements. Standardization allows for modularity and the ability to lower satellite cost by reusing instrumentation and satellite systems without redesigning interfaces. Use of nanosatellites gives a designer the freedom to depart from the customary larger satellite design by deploying standardized interfaces throughout the spacecraft bus. Examples from the Boston University Student Satellite for Application and Training (BUSAT), the Thunderstorms and Effects Scientific and Technology nanosatellite (TEST), and the Loss Cone Imaging Instrument (LCI) will be provided. BUSAT is a five instrument nanosatellite with a nine pixel Imaging Electron Spectrometer, a Magnetometer, an Auroral Imager, a Very Low Frequency receiver, and a Langmuir Plasma Probe. Its purpose is to further the understanding of the coupling between energetic particles originating in the magnetosphere and their subsequent effects on the Ionosphere. In addition to their space weather science objective, BUSAT’s subsystems are based on the Cubesat concept and have been standardized, enabling them to be stacked in any orientation. Subsystems are not limited in size to the basic 1U cube, but are able to be any multiple of that size in any direction.

2015 Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School Research Reports

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cowee, Misa [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Chen, Yuxi [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Desai, Ravindra [Univ. College London, Bloomsbury (United Kingdom); Hassan, Ehab [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States); Kalmoni, Nadine [Univ. College London, Bloomsbury (United Kingdom); Lin, Dong [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States); Depascuale, Sebastian [Univ. of Iowa, Iowa City, IA (United States); Hughes, Randall Scott [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Zhou, Hong [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)

2015-11-24

The fifth Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School was held June 1st - July 24th, 2015, at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). With renewed support from the Institute of Geophysics, Planetary Physics, and Signatures (IGPPS) and additional support from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science, we hosted a new class of five students from various U.S. and foreign research institutions. The summer school curriculum includes a series of structured lectures as well as mentored research and practicum opportunities. Lecture topics including general and specialized topics in the field of space weather were given by a number of researchers affiliated with LANL. Students were given the opportunity to engage in research projects through a mentored practicum experience. Each student works with one or more LANL-affiliated mentors to execute a collaborative research project, typically linked with a larger ongoing research effort at LANL and/or the student’s PhD thesis research. This model provides a valuable learning experience for the student while developing the opportunity for future collaboration. This report includes a summary of the research efforts fostered and facilitated by the Space Weather Summer School. These reports should be viewed as work-in-progress as the short session typically only offers sufficient time for preliminary results. At the close of the summer school session, students present a summary of their research efforts. Titles of the papers included in this report are as follows: Full particle-in-cell (PIC) simulation of whistler wave generation, Hybrid simulations of the right-hand ion cyclotron anisotropy instability in a sub-Alfvénic plasma flow, A statistical ensemble for solar wind measurements, Observations and models of substorm injection dispersion patterns, Heavy ion effects on Kelvin-Helmholtz instability: hybrid study, Simulating plasmaspheric electron densities with a two

2015 Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School Research Reports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cowee, Misa; Chen, Yuxi; Desai, Ravindra; Hassan, Ehab; Kalmoni, Nadine; Lin, Dong; Depascuale, Sebastian; Hughes, Randall Scott; Zhou, Hong

2015-01-01

The fifth Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School was held June 1st - July 24th, 2015, at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). With renewed support from the Institute of Geophysics, Planetary Physics, and Signatures (IGPPS) and additional support from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science, we hosted a new class of five students from various U.S. and foreign research institutions. The summer school curriculum includes a series of structured lectures as well as mentored research and practicum opportunities. Lecture topics including general and specialized topics in the field of space weather were given by a number of researchers affiliated with LANL. Students were given the opportunity to engage in research projects through a mentored practicum experience. Each student works with one or more LANL-affiliated mentors to execute a collaborative research project, typically linked with a larger ongoing research effort at LANL and/or the student's PhD thesis research. This model provides a valuable learning experience for the student while developing the opportunity for future collaboration. This report includes a summary of the research efforts fostered and facilitated by the Space Weather Summer School. These reports should be viewed as work-in-progress as the short session typically only offers sufficient time for preliminary results. At the close of the summer school session, students present a summary of their research efforts. Titles of the papers included in this report are as follows: Full particle-in-cell (PIC) simulation of whistler wave generation, Hybrid simulations of the right-hand ion cyclotron anisotropy instability in a sub-Alfv@@nic plasma flow, A statistical ensemble for solar wind measurements, Observations and models of substorm injection dispersion patterns, Heavy ion effects on Kelvin-Helmholtz instability: hybrid study, Simulating plasmaspheric electron densities with a

Early Japanese contributions to space weather research (1945–1960

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Nishida

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Major contributions by Japanese scientists in the period of 1945 to 1960 are reviewed. This was the period when the foundation of the space weather research was laid by ground-based observations and theoretical research. Important contributions were made on such subjects as equatorial ionosphere in quiet times, tidal wind system in the ionosphere, formation of the F2 layer, VLF propagation above the ionosphere, and precursory phenomena (type IV radio outburst and polar cap absorption to storms. At the IGY (1957, 1958, research efforts were intensified and new programs in space and Antarctica were initiated. Japanese scientists in this discipline held a tight network for communication and collaboration that has been kept to this day.

Effects of Space Weathering on Reflectance Spectra of Ureilites: A Proof-of-Concept Study

Science.gov (United States)

Goodrich, C. A.; Gillis-Davis, J.; Cloutis, E.; Applin, D.; Hibbits, C.; Klima, R.; Christoffersen, R.; Fries, M.; Decker, S.

2017-07-01

Space weathering and spectral studies of three ureilitic samples show that space weathering causes significant changes in UV-VIS-IR spectra and Raman spectra. Changes due to amorphization of carbon could disguise ureilitic asteroids as CC-like.

The RMI Space Weather and Navigation Systems (SWANS) Project

Science.gov (United States)

Warnant, Rene; Lejeune, Sandrine; Wautelet, Gilles; Spits, Justine; Stegen, Koen; Stankov, Stan

The SWANS (Space Weather and Navigation Systems) research and development project (http://swans.meteo.be) is an initiative of the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) under the auspices of the Belgian Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence (STCE). The RMI SWANS objectives are: research on space weather and its effects on GNSS applications; permanent mon-itoring of the local/regional geomagnetic and ionospheric activity; and development/operation of relevant nowcast, forecast, and alert services to help professional GNSS/GALILEO users in mitigating space weather effects. Several SWANS developments have already been implemented and available for use. The K-LOGIC (Local Operational Geomagnetic Index K Calculation) system is a nowcast system based on a fully automated computer procedure for real-time digital magnetogram data acquisition, data screening, and calculating the local geomagnetic K index. Simultaneously, the planetary Kp index is estimated from solar wind measurements, thus adding to the service reliability and providing forecast capabilities as well. A novel hybrid empirical model, based on these ground-and space-based observations, has been implemented for nowcasting and forecasting the geomagnetic index, issuing also alerts whenever storm-level activity is indicated. A very important feature of the nowcast/forecast system is the strict control on the data input and processing, allowing for an immediate assessment of the output quality. The purpose of the LIEDR (Local Ionospheric Electron Density Reconstruction) system is to acquire and process data from simultaneous ground-based GNSS TEC and digital ionosonde measurements, and subsequently to deduce the vertical electron density distribution. A key module is the real-time estimation of the ionospheric slab thickness, offering additional infor-mation on the local ionospheric dynamics. The RTK (Real Time Kinematic) status mapping provides a quick look at the small-scale ionospheric effects on the RTK

Effects of Space Weathering on Reflectance Spectra of Ureilites: First Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Goodrich, C. A.; Gillis-Davis, J.; Cloutis, E.; Applin, D.; Takir, D.; Hibbitts, C.; Christoffersen, R.; Fries, M.; Klima, R.; Decker, S.

2018-01-01

Ureilites are differentiated meteorites (ultramafic rocks interpreted to be mantle residues) that contain as much carbon as the most carbon-rich carbonaceous chondrites (CCs). Reflectance spectra of ureilites are similar to those of some CCs. Hence, ureilitic asteroids may accidentally be categorized as primitive because their spectra could resemble those of C-complex asteroids, which are thought to be CC-like. We began spectral studies of progressively laser-weathered ureilites with the goals of predicting UV-VIS-IR spectra of ureilitic asteroids, and identifying features that could distinguish differentiated from primitive dark asteroids. Space weathering has not previously been studied for ureilites, and, based on space weathering studies of CCs and other C-rich materials, it could significantly alter their reflectance spectra.

Space Weather Research in Armenia

Science.gov (United States)

Chilingarian, A. A.

DVIN for ASEC (Data Visualization interactive Network for Aragats Space Environmental Center) is product for accessing and analysis the on-line data from Solar Monitors located at high altitude research station on Mt. Aragats in Armenia. Data from ASEC monitors is used worldwide for scientific purposes and for monitoring of severe solar storms in progress. Alert service, based on the automatic analysis of variations of the different species of cosmic ray particles is available for subscribers. DVIN advantages: DVIN is strategically important as a scientific application to help develop space science and to foster global collaboration in forecasting potential hazards of solar storms. It precisely fits with the goals of the new evolving information society to provide long-term monitoring and collection of high quality scientific data, and enables adequate dialogue between scientists, decision makers, and civil society. The system is highly interactive and exceptional information is easily accessible online. Data can be monitored and analyzed for desired time spans in a fast and reliable manner. The ASEC activity is an example of a balance between the scientific independence of fundamental research and the needs of civil society. DVIN is also an example of how scientific institutions can apply the newest powerful methods of information technologies, such as multivariate data analysis, to their data and also how information technologies can provide convenient and reliable access to this data and to new knowledge for the world-wide scientific community. DVIN provides very wide possibilities for sharing data and sending warnings and alerts to scientists and other entities world-wide, which have fundamental and practical interest in knowing the space weather conditions.

Addressing the Influence of Space Weather on Airline Navigation

Science.gov (United States)

Sparks, Lawrence

2012-01-01

The advent of satellite-based augmentation systems has made it possible to navigate aircraft safely using radio signals emitted by global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) such as the Global Positioning System. As a signal propagates through the earth's ionosphere, it suffers delay that is proportional to the total electron content encountered along the raypath. Since the magnitude of this total electron content is strongly influenced by space weather, the safety and reliability of GNSS for airline navigation requires continual monitoring of the state of the ionosphere and calibration of ionospheric delay. This paper examines the impact of space weather on GNSS-based navigation and provides an overview of how the Wide Area Augmentation System protects its users from positioning error due to ionospheric disturbances

GEO Satellites as Space Weather Sensors

Science.gov (United States)

2016-04-26

AFRL-AFOSR-VA-TR-2016-0161 GEO Satellites as Space Weather Sensors Kerri Cahoy MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY 77 MASSACHUSETTS AVE CAMBRIDGE ... Cambridge , MA 02139 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) AF Office of Scientific...Lohmeyer  and  Cahoy,  2013;   Lohmeyer,  et  al.,  2015].  From  the   statistical  analysis,  we  identified  that

Considering space weather forces interaction on human health: the equilibrium paradigm in clinical cosmobiology - is it equal?

Science.gov (United States)

Stoupel, Eliyahu

2015-03-01

We are constantly affected by changes in space weather. The principal "players" are solar activity (SA), geomagnetic activity (GMA) and antagonistic to them, cosmic ray activity (CRA) and high energy proton flux. CRA is measured by neutron activity on the earth's surface in imp/min. SA and GMA are linked and serve as a shield for the earth from CRA. For a long time SA and GMA were the main areas of studies. The aim of this study was to compare some effects of the mentioned forces and discuss the temporal distribution of both groups of space weather, in relation to their effects on humans. The time distribution of GMA storms (daily) was compared with quiet (low) GMA, with higher CRA (neutron activity). Space weather data were obtained from the USA, Russia and Finland. A total of 4383 days were analyzed in the years 2000-2012. A total of 71 days (1.62%) of geomagnetic storms (GS) and 2753 days (63.8%) of quiet (I0) GMA were registered. A second study was provided including the years 1983-2007 (9131 days); here 3800 days (41.62%) were quiet GMA days and 400 storm days (4.38%). According to publications in the medical literature, many phenomena are connected with the extremes of space weather. Despite a great number of publications and the significant role of GS, it is a relatively rare event and most medical emergencies and deaths occur on days of low GMA, accompanied by higher CRA (neutron activity). High neutron activity deserves more attention when analyzing space effects on human health and their mechanism of action.

A contribution towards establishing more comfortable space weather to cope with increased human space passengers for ISS shuttles

Science.gov (United States)

Kalu, A.

Space Weather is a specialized scienctific descipline in Meteorology which has recently emerged from man's continued research efforts to create a familiar spacecraft environment which is physiologically stable and life sustaining for astronauts and human passengers in distant space travels. As the population of human passengers in space shuttles rapidly increases, corresponding research on sustained micro-climate of spacecrafts is considered necessary and timely. This is because existing information is not meant for a large population in spacecrafts. The paper therefore discusses the role of meteorology (specifically micrometeorology) in relation to internal communication, spacecraft instrumentation and physiologic comfort of astronauts and space passengers (the later may not necessarily be trained astronauts, but merely business men or tourist space travellers for business transactions in the International Space Station (ISS)). It is recognized that me eorology which is a fundamental science amongt multidiscplinary sciences has been found to be vital in space travels and communication. Space weather therefore appears in slightly different format where temperature and humidity changes and variability within the spacecraft exert very significant influences on the efficiency of astronauts and the effectiveness of the various delicate instrument gadgets aimed at reducing the frequency of computer failures and malfunction of other instruments on which safety of the spacecraft depends. Apart from the engineering and technological problems which space scientists must have to overcome when human population in space shuttles increases as we now expect, based on evidence from successful missions to ISS, the maint enace of physiologic comfort state of astronauts, which, as far as scientifically possible, should be as near as possible to their Earth-Atmosphere condition. This is one of the most important and also most difficult conditions to attain. It demands a mor e

Space Weather Impacts on Spacecraft Operations: Identifying and Establishing High-Priority Operational Services

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, G.; Reid, S.; Tranquille, C.; Evans, H.

2013-12-01

Space Weather is a multi-disciplinary and cross-domain system defined as, 'The physical and phenomenological state of natural space environments. The associated discipline aims, through observation, monitoring, analysis and modelling, at understanding and predicting the state of the Sun, the interplanetary and planetary environments, and the solar and non-solar driven perturbations that affect them, and also at forecasting and nowcasting the potential impacts on biological and technological systems'. National and Agency-level efforts to provide services addressing the myriad problems, such as ESA's SSA programme are therefore typically complex and ambitious undertakings to introduce a comprehensive suite of services aimed at a large number and broad range of end users. We focus on some of the particular threats and risks that Space Weather events pose to the Spacecraft Operations community, and the resulting implications in terms of User Requirements. We describe some of the highest-priority service elements identified as being needed by the Operations community, and outline some service components that are presently available, or under development. The particular threats and risks often vary according to orbit, so the particular User Needs for Operators at LEO, MEO and GEO are elaborated. The inter-relationship between these needed service elements and existing service components within the broader Space Weather domain is explored. Some high-priority service elements and potential correlation with Space Weather drivers include: solar array degradation and energetic proton storms; single event upsets at GEO and solar proton events and galactic cosmic rays; surface charging and deep dielectric charging at MEO and radiation belt dynamics; SEUs at LEO and the South Atlantic Anomaly and its variability. We examine the current capability to provide operational services addressing such threats and identify some advances that the Operations community can expect to benefit

Utilizing Weather RADAR for Rapid Location of Meteorite Falls and Space Debris Re-Entry

Science.gov (United States)

Fries, Marc D.

2016-01-01

This activity utilizes existing NOAA weather RADAR imagery to locate meteorite falls and space debris falls. The near-real-time availability and spatial accuracy of these data allow rapid recovery of material from both meteorite falls and space debris re-entry events. To date, at least 22 meteorite fall recoveries have benefitted from RADAR detection and fall modeling, and multiple debris re-entry events over the United States have been observed in unprecedented detail.

Space weathering trends on carbonaceous asteroids: A possible explanation for Bennu's blue slope?

Science.gov (United States)

Lantz, C.; Binzel, R. P.; DeMeo, F. E.

2018-03-01

We compare primitive near-Earth asteroid spectral properties to the irradiated carbonaceous chondrite samples of Lantz et al. (2017) in order to assess how space weathering processes might influence taxonomic classification. Using the same eigenvectors from the asteroid taxonomy by DeMeo et al. (2009), we calculate the principal components for fresh and irradiated meteorites and find that change in spectral slope (blueing or reddening) causes a corresponding shift in the two first principal components along the same line that the C- and X-complexes track. Using a sample of B-, C-, X-, and D-type NEOs with visible and near-infrared spectral data, we further investigated the correlation between prinicipal components and the spectral curvature for the primitive asteroids. We find that space weathering effects are not just slope and albedo, but also include spectral curvature. We show how, through space weathering, surfaces having an original "C-type" reflectance can thus turn into a redder P-type or a bluer B-type, and that space weathering can also decrease (and disguise) the D-type population. Finally we take a look at the case of OSIRIS-REx target (101955) Bennu and propose an explanation for the blue and possibly red spectra that were previously observed on different locations of its surface: parts of Bennu's surface could have become blue due to space weathering, while fresher areas are redder. No clear prediction can be made on Hayabusa-2 target (162173) Ryugu.

Review on the solar spectral variability in the EUV for space weather purposes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Lilensten

2008-02-01

Full Text Available The solar XUV-EUV flux is the main energy source in the terrestrial diurnal thermosphere: it produces ionization, dissociation, excitation and heating. Accurate knowledge of this flux is of prime importance for space weather. We first list the space weather applications that require nowcasting and forecasting of the solar XUV-EUV flux. We then review present models and discuss how they account for the variability of the solar spectrum. We show why the measurement of the full spectrum is difficult, and why it is illusory to retrieve it from its atmospheric effects. We then address the problem of determining a set of observations that are adapted for space weather purposes, in the frame of ionospheric studies. Finally, we review the existing and future space experiments that are devoted to the observation of the solar XUV-EUV spectrum.

Operational Planetary Space Weather Services for the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

André, Nicolas; Grande, Manuel

2017-04-01

Under Horizon 2020, the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure (EPN2020-RI, http://www.europlanet-2020-ri.eu) includes an entirely new Virtual Access Service, "Planetary Space Weather Services" (PSWS) that will extend the concepts of space weather and space situational awareness to other planets in our Solar System and in particular to spacecraft that voyage through it. PSWS will provide at the end of 2017 12 services distributed over 4 different service domains - 1) Prediction, 2) Detection, 3) Modelling, 4) Alerts. These services include 1.1) A 1D MHD solar wind prediction tool, 1.2) Extensions of a Propagation Tool, 1.3) A meteor showers prediction tool, 1.4) A cometary tail crossing prediction tool, 2.1) Detection of lunar impacts, 2.2) Detection of giant planet fireballs, 2.3) Detection of cometary tail events, 3.1) A Transplanet model of magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling, 3.2) A model of the Mars radiation environment, 3.3.) A model of giant planet magnetodisc, 3.4) A model of Jupiter's thermosphere, 4) A VO-event based alert system. We will detail in the present paper some of these services with a particular emphasis on those already operational at the time of the presentation (1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 2.2, 3.1, 4). The proposed Planetary Space Weather Services will be accessible to the research community, amateur astronomers as well as to industrial partners planning for space missions dedicated in particular to the following key planetary environments: Mars, in support of ESA's ExoMars missions; comets, building on the success of the ESA Rosetta mission; and outer planets, in preparation for the ESA JUpiter ICy moon Explorer (JUICE). These services will also be augmented by the future Solar Orbiter and BepiColombo observations. This new facility will not only have an impact on planetary space missions but will also allow the hardness of spacecraft and their components to be evaluated under variety of known conditions, particularly radiation conditions, extending

The joint space-time statistics of macroweather precipitation, space-time statistical factorization and macroweather models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lovejoy, S.; Lima, M. I. P. de

2015-01-01

Over the range of time scales from about 10 days to 30–100 years, in addition to the familiar weather and climate regimes, there is an intermediate “macroweather” regime characterized by negative temporal fluctuation exponents: implying that fluctuations tend to cancel each other out so that averages tend to converge. We show theoretically and numerically that macroweather precipitation can be modeled by a stochastic weather-climate model (the Climate Extended Fractionally Integrated Flux, model, CEFIF) first proposed for macroweather temperatures and we show numerically that a four parameter space-time CEFIF model can approximately reproduce eight or so empirical space-time exponents. In spite of this success, CEFIF is theoretically and numerically difficult to manage. We therefore propose a simplified stochastic model in which the temporal behavior is modeled as a fractional Gaussian noise but the spatial behaviour as a multifractal (climate) cascade: a spatial extension of the recently introduced ScaLIng Macroweather Model, SLIMM. Both the CEFIF and this spatial SLIMM model have a property often implicitly assumed by climatologists that climate statistics can be “homogenized” by normalizing them with the standard deviation of the anomalies. Physically, it means that the spatial macroweather variability corresponds to different climate zones that multiplicatively modulate the local, temporal statistics. This simplified macroweather model provides a framework for macroweather forecasting that exploits the system's long range memory and spatial correlations; for it, the forecasting problem has been solved. We test this factorization property and the model with the help of three centennial, global scale precipitation products that we analyze jointly in space and in time

Space Weather Effects in the Earth's Radiation Belts

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, D. N.; Erickson, P. J.; Fennell, J. F.; Foster, J. C.; Jaynes, A. N.; Verronen, P. T.

2018-02-01

The first major scientific discovery of the Space Age was that the Earth is enshrouded in toroids, or belts, of very high-energy magnetically trapped charged particles. Early observations of the radiation environment clearly indicated that the Van Allen belts could be delineated into an inner zone dominated by high-energy protons and an outer zone dominated by high-energy electrons. The energy distribution, spatial extent and particle species makeup of the Van Allen belts has been subsequently explored by several space missions. Recent observations by the NASA dual-spacecraft Van Allen Probes mission have revealed many novel properties of the radiation belts, especially for electrons at highly relativistic and ultra-relativistic kinetic energies. In this review we summarize the space weather impacts of the radiation belts. We demonstrate that many remarkable features of energetic particle changes are driven by strong solar and solar wind forcings. Recent comprehensive data show broadly and in many ways how high energy particles are accelerated, transported, and lost in the magnetosphere due to interplanetary shock wave interactions, coronal mass ejection impacts, and high-speed solar wind streams. We also discuss how radiation belt particles are intimately tied to other parts of the geospace system through atmosphere, ionosphere, and plasmasphere coupling. The new data have in many ways rewritten the textbooks about the radiation belts as a key space weather threat to human technological systems.

Assessing Space Weather Applications and Understanding: IMF Bz at L1

Science.gov (United States)

Riley, P.; Savani, N.; Mays, M. L.; Austin, H. J.

2017-12-01

The CCMC - International (CCMC-I) is designed as a self-organizing informal forum for facilitating novel global initiatives on space weather research, development, forecasting and education. Here we capitalize on CCMC'AGUs experience in providing highly utilized web-based services, leadership and trusted relationships with space weather model developers. One of the CCMC-I initiatives is the International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment. As part of this initiative, within the solar and heliosphere domain, we focus our community discussion on forecasting the magnetic structure of interplanetary CMEs and the ambient solar wind. During the International CCMC-LWS Working Meeting in April 2017 the group instigated open communication to agree upon a standardized process by which all current and future models can be compared under an unbiased test. In this poster, we present our initial findings how we expect different models will move forward with validating and forecasting the magnetic vectors of the solar wind at L1. We also present a new IMF Bz Score-board which will be used to assist in the transitioning of research models into more operational settings.

Latest Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) services and innovative tools supporting the space weather research and operational communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Mendoza, A. M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Shim, J. S.; MacNeice, P. J.; Taktakishvili, A.; Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Weigand, C.; Zheng, Y.; Mullinix, R.; Patel, K.; Pembroke, A. D.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Boblitt, J. M.; Bakshi, S. S.; Tsui, T.

2017-12-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), with the fundamental goal of aiding the transition of modern space science models into space weather forecasting while supporting space science research, has been serving as an integral hub for over 15 years, providing invaluable resources to both space weather scientific and operational communities. CCMC has developed and provided innovative web-based point of access tools varying from: Runs-On-Request System - providing unprecedented global access to the largest collection of state-of-the-art solar and space physics models, Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) - a powerful dissemination system for space weather information, Advanced Online Visualization and Analysis tools for more accurate interpretation of model results, Standard Data formats for Simulation Data downloads, and Mobile apps to view space weather data anywhere to the scientific community. In addition to supporting research and performing model evaluations, CCMC also supports space science education by hosting summer students through local universities. In this poster, we will showcase CCMC's latest innovative tools and services, and CCMC's tools that revolutionized the way we do research and improve our operational space weather capabilities. CCMC's free tools and resources are all publicly available online (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov).

Random Vibration of Space Shuttle Weather Protection Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isaac Elishakoff

1995-01-01

Full Text Available The article deals with random vibrations of the space shuttle weather protection systems. The excitation model represents a fit to the measured experimental data. The cross-spectral density is given as a convex combination of three exponential functions. It is shown that for the type of loading considered, the Bernoulli-Euler theory cannot be used as a simplified approach, and the structure will be more properly modeled as a Timoshenko beam. Use of the simple Bernoulli-Euler theory may result in an error of about 50% in determining the mean-square value of the bending moment in the weather protection system.

Fostering research aptitude among high school students through space weather competition

Science.gov (United States)

Abdullah, M.; Majid, R. A.; Bais, B.; Bahri, N. S.; Asillam, M. F.

2018-01-01

Cultivating research culture at an early stage is important for capacity building in a community. The high school level is the appropriate stage for research to be introduced because of students' competitive nature. Participation in the space weather competition is one of the ways in which research aptitude can be fostered in high school students in Malaysia. Accordingly, this paper presents how research elements were introduced to the students at the high school level through their participation in the space weather competition. The competition required the students to build a system to detect the presence of solar flares by utilizing VLF signals reflected from the ionosphere. The space weather competition started off with proposal writing for the space weather related project where the students were required to execute extensive literature review on the given topic. Additionally, the students were also required to conduct the experiments and analyse the data. Results obtained from data analysis were then validated by the students through various other observations that they had to carry out. At the end of the competition, students were expected to write a comprehensive technical report. Through this competition, the students learnt how to conduct research in accordance to the guidelines provided through the step by step approach exposed to them. Ultimately, this project revealed that the students were able to conduct research on their own with minimal guidance and that participation in the competition not only generated enjoyment in learning but also their interest in science and research.

Enhancing the Awareness of the Interaction of the Space Weather and Public: Some Case Studies in Turkey

Science.gov (United States)

Tulunay, Y.; Tulunay, E.; Kocabas, Z.; Altuntas, E.; Yapici, T.; Senalp, E. T.; Hippler, R.

2009-04-01

Space Weather has important effects on many systems and peripherals that human interacts with. However, most of the people are not aware of those interactions. During the FP6 SWEETS, COST 724 and the ‘I love my Sun' activities it was aimed to create basis to bring together academicians from universities, experts from industry, scientific institutes, and the public, especially the school children of age 7-11, in order to enhance the awareness of space weather effects and to discuss appropriate countermeasures by different education and promotion methods including non-technical ones. This work mentions the activities performed in Turkey within the framework. Since 1990, a small group at METU has been developing data driven models in order to forecast some critical system parameters related with the near-Earth space processes. With the background on the subject the group feels responsible to organise activities in Turkey to inform public on enhancing the awareness of space weather effects. In order to inform and educate public on their interaction with the Space Weather, distinct social activities which take quick and strong attention were organised. Those include art shows and workshops, quizes, movies and entertainments, special programs for school children of age 7-11 under the ‘I love my Sun' activities, press releases, audio-visual media including webpages [Tulunay, 2007]. The impact of the activities can be evaluated considering the before and after activity record materials of the participants. For instance, under the ‘I love my Sun' activities, the school children drew pictures related with Sun before and after the informative programs. The performance of reaching the school children on the subject is very promising. Sub-activities conducted under the action are: 1. Space Weather Dance Show "Sonnensturm" 2. Web Quiz all over Europe: In Türkiye 3. Space Weather / Sun / Heliospheric Public Science Festivals in 27 Countries: In Türkiye 4. Space Weather on

Engaging Undergraduate Students in Space Weather Research at a 2- Year College

Science.gov (United States)

Damas, M. C.

2017-07-01

The Queensborough Community College (QCC) of the City University of New York (CUNY), a Hispanic and minority-serving institution, has been very successful at engaging undergraduate students in space weather research for the past ten years. Recently, it received two awards to support student research and education in solar and atmospheric physics under the umbrella discipline of space weather. Through these awards, students receive stipends during the academic year and summer to engage in scientific research. Students also have the opportunity to complete a summer internship at NASA and at other partner institutions. Funding also supports the development of course materials and tools in space weather. Educational materials development and the challenges of engaging students in research as early as their first year will be discussed. Once funding is over, how is the program sustained? Sustaining such a program, as well as how to implement it at other universities will also be discussed.

Space weather biological and systems effects for suborbital flights

Science.gov (United States)

2008-10-31

The Aerospace Corporation was tasked to assess the impacts of space weather on both RLVs and ELVs operating at suborbital altitudes from launch sites located in the low (equatorial regions), middle, and high latitudes. The present report presents a b...

Virtual Planetary Space Weather Services offered by the Europlanet H2020 Research Infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

André, N.; Grande, M.; Achilleos, N.; Barthélémy, M.; Bouchemit, M.; Benson, K.; Blelly, P.-L.; Budnik, E.; Caussarieu, S.; Cecconi, B.; Cook, T.; Génot, V.; Guio, P.; Goutenoir, A.; Grison, B.; Hueso, R.; Indurain, M.; Jones, G. H.; Lilensten, J.; Marchaudon, A.; Matthiä, D.; Opitz, A.; Rouillard, A.; Stanislawska, I.; Soucek, J.; Tao, C.; Tomasik, L.; Vaubaillon, J.

2018-01-01

Under Horizon 2020, the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure (EPN2020-RI) will include an entirely new Virtual Access Service, "Planetary Space Weather Services" (PSWS) that will extend the concepts of space weather and space situational awareness to other planets in our Solar System and in particular to spacecraft that voyage through it. PSWS will make twelve new services accessible to the research community, space agencies, and industrial partners planning for space missions. These services will in particular be dedicated to the following key planetary environments: Mars (in support of the NASA MAVEN and European Space Agency (ESA) Mars Express and ExoMars missions), comets (building on the outstanding success of the ESA Rosetta mission), and outer planets (in preparation for the ESA JUpiter ICy moon Explorer mission), and one of these services will aim at predicting and detecting planetary events like meteor showers and impacts in the Solar System. This will give the European planetary science community new methods, interfaces, functionalities and/or plugins dedicated to planetary space weather as well as to space situational awareness in the tools and models available within the partner institutes. A variety of tools (in the form of web applications, standalone software, or numerical models in various degrees of implementation) are available for tracing propagation of planetary and/or solar events through the Solar System and modelling the response of the planetary environment (surfaces, atmospheres, ionospheres, and magnetospheres) to those events. But these tools were not originally designed for planetary event prediction and space weather applications. PSWS will provide the additional research and tailoring required to apply them for these purposes. PSWS will be to review, test, improve and adapt methods and tools available within the partner institutes in order to make prototype planetary event and space weather services operational in Europe at the end

Possible space weather influence on the Earth wheat prices

Science.gov (United States)

Pustil'Nik, L.; Yom Din, G.; Dorman, L.

We present development of our study of possible influence of space weather modulated by cycle of solar activity on the price bursts in the Earth markets In our previous works 1 2 we showed that correspondent response may have place in the specific locations characterized by a high sensitivity of the weather cloudiness in particular to cosmic ray variation b risk zone agriculture c isolated wheat market with limited external supply of agriculture production We showed that in this situation we may wait specific price burst reaction on unfavorable phase of solar activity and space weather what lead to corresponding abnormalities in the local weather and next crop failure We showed that main types of manifestation of this connection are a Distribution of intervals between price bursts must be like to the distribution of intervals between correspondent extremes of solar activity minimums or maximums b price asymmetry between opposite states of solar activity price in the one type of activity state is systematically higher then in the opposite one We showed in our previous publications that this influence in interval distribution is detected with high reliability in Mediaeval England 1250-1700 both for wheat prices and price of consumables basket We showed that for period of Maunder Minimum price asymmetry of wheat prices observed all prices in minimum state of solar activity was higher the prices in the next maximum state We showed later that this price asymmetry had place in 20-th century in USA durum prices too In

Environmental Impact Specification for Direct Space Weathering of Kuiper Belt and Oort Cloud Objects

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, John F.

2010-01-01

The Direct Space Weathering Project of NASA's Outer Planets Research Program addresses specification of the plasma and energetic particle environments for irradiation and surface chemical processing of icy bodies in the outer solar system and the local interstellar medium. Knowledge of the radiation environments is being expanded by ongoing penetration of the twin Voyager spacecraft into the heliosheath boundary region of the outer heliosphere and expected emergence within the next decade into the very local interstellar medium. The Voyager measurements are being supplemented by remote sensing from Earth orbit of energetic neutral atom emission from this boundary region by NASA's Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX). Although the Voyagers long ago passed the region of the Classical Kuiper Belt, the New Horizons spacecraft will encounter Pluto in 2015 and thereafter explore one or more KBOs, meanwhile providing updated measurements of the heliospheric radiation environment in this region. Modeling of ion transport within the heliosphere allows specification of time-integrated irradiation effects while the combination of Voyager and IBEX data supports projection of the in-situ measurements into interstellar space beyond the heliosheath. Transformation of model ion flux distributions into surface sputtering and volume ionization profiles provides a multi-layer perspective for space weathering impact on the affected icy bodies and may account for some aspects of color and compositional diversity. Other important related factors may include surface erosion and gardening by meteoritic impacts and surface renewal by cryovolcanism. Chemical products of space weathering may contribute to energy resources for the latter.

Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

Science.gov (United States)

Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

2015-01-01

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

SUVI Thematic Maps: A new tool for space weather forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, J. M.; Seaton, D. B.; Darnel, J.

2017-12-01

The new Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI) instruments aboard NOAA's GOES-R series satellites collect continuous, high-quality imagery of the Sun in six wavelengths. SUVI imagers produce at least one image every 10 seconds, or 8,640 images per day, considerably more data than observers can digest in real time. Over the projected 20-year lifetime of the four GOES-R series spacecraft, SUVI will provide critical imagery for space weather forecasters and produce an extensive but unwieldy archive. In order to condense the database into a dynamic and searchable form we have developed solar thematic maps, maps of the Sun with key features, such as coronal holes, flares, bright regions, quiet corona, and filaments, identified. Thematic maps will be used in NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center to improve forecaster response time to solar events and generate several derivative products. Likewise, scientists use thematic maps to find observations of interest more easily. Using an expert-trained, naive Bayesian classifier to label each pixel, we create thematic maps in real-time. We created software to collect expert classifications of solar features based on SUVI images. Using this software, we compiled a database of expert classifications, from which we could characterize the distribution of pixels associated with each theme. Given new images, the classifier assigns each pixel the most appropriate label according to the trained distribution. Here we describe the software to collect expert training and the successes and limitations of the classifier. The algorithm excellently identifies coronal holes but fails to consistently detect filaments and prominences. We compare the Bayesian classifier to an artificial neural network, one of our attempts to overcome the aforementioned limitations. These results are very promising and encourage future research into an ensemble classification approach.

Application of the idea of morphism in solar-terrestrial physics and space weather

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mateev, Lachezar; Tassev, Yordan; Velinov, Peter

2016-01-01

The actual problems of solar-terrestrial physics, in particular of space weather are related to the prediction of the space environment state and are solved by means of different analyses and models. In the present work we introduce a new mathematical approach to the study of physical processes in the system Sun-Earth. For example, in the ionization of the ionosphere and atmosphere under the influence of cosmic rays a model is used that applies the principle of homomorphism. When calculating the parameters of space weather such as solar wind, interplanetary magnetic fields, Earth’s magnetosphere, geomagnetic storms and others, the introduction and application of mathematical objects is appropriate: morphisms, groups, categories, monads, functors, natural transformations and others. Such an approach takes into account the general laws of physical processes in the system Sun – Earth and helps in their testing and calculation. It is useful for such complex systems and processes as these in the solar-terrestrial physics and space weather. Some methods for algebraic structures can be introduced. These methods give the possibility for axiomatization of the physical data reality and the application of algebraic methods for their processing. Here we give the base for the transformation from the algebraic theory of categories and morphisms to the physical structure of concepts and data. Such problems are principally considered in the proposed work. Key words: pace weather, space radiation environment, solar effects, forecasting, energetic solar particles, cosmic rays

A Data Model for Determining Weather's Impact on Travel Time

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Ove; Torp, Kristian

2016-01-01

Accurate estimating travel times in road networks is a complex task because travel times depends on factors such as the weather. In this paper, we present a generic model for integrating weather data with GPS data to improve the accuracy of the estimated travel times. First, we present a data model...... for storing and map-matching GPS data, and integrating this data with detailed weather data. The model is generic in the sense that it can be used anywhere GPS data and weather data is available. Next, we analyze the correlation between travel time and the weather classes dry, fog, rain, and snow along...... with winds impact on travel time. Using a data set of 1.6 billion GPS records collected from 10,560 vehicles, over a 5 year period from all of Denmark, we show that snow can increase the travel time up to 27% and strong headwind can increase the travel time with up to 19% (compared to dry calm weather...

The NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) Next Generation Space Weather Data Warehouse

Science.gov (United States)

Maddox, M. M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Zheng, Y.; Rastaetter, L.; Chulaki, A.; Pembroke, A. D.; Wiegand, C.; Mullinix, R.; Boblitt, J.; Mendoza, A. M. M.; Swindell, M. J., IV; Bakshi, S. S.; Mays, M. L.; Shim, J. S.; Hesse, M.; Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Taktakishvili, A.; MacNeice, P. J.

2014-12-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables, supports, and performs research and development for next generation space science and space weather models. The CCMC currently hosts a large and expanding collection of state-or-the-art, physics-based space weather models that have been developed by the international research community. There are many tools and services provided by the CCMC that are currently available world-wide, along with the ongoing development of new innovative systems and software for research, discovery, validation, visualization, and forecasting. Over the history of the CCMC's existence, there has been one constant engineering challenge - describing, managing, and disseminating data. To address the challenges that accompany an ever-expanding number of models to support, along with a growing catalog of simulation output - the CCMC is currently developing a flexible and extensible space weather data warehouse to support both internal and external systems and applications. This paper intends to chronicle the evolution and future of the CCMC's data infrastructure, and the current infrastructure re-engineering activities that seek to leverage existing community data model standards like SPASE and the IMPEx Simulation Data Model.

Developing Space Weather products and services in Europe – Preface to the Special Issue on COST Action ES0803

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Belehaki Anna

2014-01-01

Full Text Available COST Action ES0803 “Developing Space Weather products and services in Europe” primarily aimed at forming an interdisciplinary network among European scientists dealing with different issues relevant to Geospace as well as warning system developers and operators in order to assess existing Space Weather products and recommend new ones. The work that has been implemented from 2008 to 2012 resulted in advances in modeling and predicting Space Weather, in recommendations for the validation of Space Weather models, in proposals for new Space Weather products and services, and in dissemination, training, and outreach activities. This preface summarizes the most important achievements of this European activity that are detailed in this special issue by the key scientists who participated in COST Action ES0803.

Assessing and Adapting Scientific Results for Space Weather Research to Operations (R2O)

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, B. J.; Friedl, L.; Halford, A. J.; Mays, M. L.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Singer, H. J.; Stehr, J. W.

2017-12-01

Why doesn't a solid scientific paper necessarily result in a tangible improvement in space weather capability? A well-known challenge in space weather forecasting is investing effort to turn the results of basic scientific research into operational knowledge. This process is commonly known as "Research to Operations," abbreviated R2O. There are several aspects of this process: 1) How relevant is the scientific result to a particular space weather process? 2) If fully utilized, how much will that result improve the reliability of the forecast for the associated process? 3) How much effort will this transition require? Is it already in a relatively usable form, or will it require a great deal of adaptation? 4) How much burden will be placed on forecasters? Is it "plug-and-play" or will it require effort to operate? 5) How can robust space weather forecasting identify challenges for new research? This presentation will cover several approaches that have potential utility in assessing scientific results for use in space weather research. The demonstration of utility is the first step, relating to the establishment of metrics to ensure that there will be a clear benefit to the end user. The presentation will then move to means of determining cost vs. benefit, (where cost involves the full effort required to transition the science to forecasting, and benefit concerns the improvement of forecast reliability), and conclude with a discussion of the role of end users and forecasters in driving further innovation via "O2R."

Ion Irradiation Experiments on the Murchison CM2 Carbonaceous Chondrite: Simulating Space Weathering of Primitive Asteroids

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, L. P.; Christoffersen, R.; Dukes, C. A.; Baragiola, R. A.; Rahman, Z.

2015-01-01

Remote sensing observations show that space weathering processes affect all airless bodies in the Solar System to some degree. Sample analyses and lab experiments provide insights into the chemical, spectroscopic and mineralogic effects of space weathering and aid in the interpretation of remote- sensing data. For example, analyses of particles returned from the S-type asteroid Itokawa by the Hayabusa mission revealed that space-weathering on that body was dominated by interactions with the solar wind acting on LL ordinary chondrite-like materials [1, 2]. Understanding and predicting how the surface regoliths of primitive carbonaceous asteroids respond to space weathering processes is important for future sample return missions (Hayabusa 2 and OSIRIS-REx) that are targeting objects of this type. Here, we report the results of our preliminary ion irradiation experiments on a hydrated carbonaceous chondrite with emphasis on microstructural and infrared spectral changes.

Recent Weather Technologies Delivered to America's Space Program by the Applied Meteorology Unit

Science.gov (United States)

Bauman, WIlliam, H., III; Crawford, Winifred

2009-01-01

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) is a unique joint venture of NASA, the Air Force and the National Weather Service (NWS) and has been supporting the Space Program for nearly two decades. The AMU acts as a bridge between the meteorological research community and operational forecasters by developing, evaluating and transitioning new technology and techniques to improve weather support to spaceport operations at the Eastern Range (ER) and Kennedy Space Center. Its primary customers are the 45th Weather Squadron at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), the Spaceflight Meteorology Group at Johnson Space Center and the National Weather Service Office in Melbourne, FL. Its products are used to support NASA's Shuttle and ELV programs as well as Department of Defense and commercial launches from the ER. Shuttle support includes landing sites beyond the ER. The AMU is co-located with the Air Force operational forecasters at CCAFS to facilitate continuous two-way interaction between the AMU and its operational customers. It is operated under a NASA, Air Force, and NWS Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) by a competitively-selected contractor. The contract, which is funded and managed by NASA, provides five full time professionals with degrees in meteorology or related fields, some of whom also have operational experience. NASA provides a Ph.D.- level NASA civil service scientist as Chief of the AMU. The AMU is tasked by its customers through a unique, nationally recognized process. The tasks are limited to development, evaluation and operational transition of technology to improve weather support to spaceport operations and providing expert advice to the customers. The MOU expressly forbids using the AMU resources to conduct operations or do basic research. The presentation will provide a brief overview of the AMU and how it is tasked by its customers to provide high priority products and services. The balance of the presentation will cover a sampling of products

Space weather monitoring by groundbased means

CERN Document Server

Troshichev, Oleg

2012-01-01

This book demonstrates that the method, based on the ground polar cap magnetic observations is a reliable diagnosis of the solar wind energy coming into the magnetosphere Method for the uninterruptive monitoring of the magnetosphere state (i.e. space weather). It shows that the solar wind energy pumping power, can be described by the PC growth rate, thus, the magnetospheric substorms features are predetermined by the PC dynamics. Furthermore, it goes on to show that the beginning and ending of magnetic storms is predictable. The magnetic storm start only if the solar energy input into the magn

Storm time dynamics of auroral electrojets: CHAMP observation and the Space Weather Modeling Framework comparison

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Wang

2008-03-01

Full Text Available We investigate variations of the location and intensity of auroral currents during two magnetic storm periods based on magnetic field measurements from CHAMP separately for both hemispheres, as well as for the dayside and nightside. The corresponding auroral electrojet current densities are on average enhanced by about a factor of 7 compared to the quiet time current strengths. The nightside westward current densities are on average 1.8 (2.2 times larger than the dayside eastward current densities in the Northern (Southern Hemisphere. Both eastward and westward currents are present during the storm periods with the most intense electrojets appearing during the main phase of the storm, before the ring current maximizes in strength. The eastward and westward electrojet centers can expand to 55° MLat during intense storms, as is observed on 31 March 2001 with Dst=−387 nT. The equatorward shift of auroral currents on the dayside is closely controlled by the southward IMF, while the latitudinal variations on the nightside are better described by the variations of the Dst index. However, the equatorward and poleward motion of the nightside auroral currents occur earlier than the Dst variations. The Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF can capture the general dynamics of the storm time current variations. Both the model and the actual data show that the currents tend to saturate when the merging electric field is larger than 10 mV/m. However, the exact prediction of the temporal development of the currents is still not satisfactory.

Nanosatellites : A paradigm change for space weather studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Barthelemy, Mathieu

2016-04-01

Nanosatellites are changing the paradigm of space exploration and engineering. The past 15 years have seen a growing activity in this field, with a marked acceleration in the last 3 years. Whereas the educational value of nanosatellites is well recognized, their scientific and technological use is potentially extremely rich but not fully explored. Conventional attitudes towards space engineering need to be reviewed in light of the capabilities and characteristics of these miniature devices that enable approaches and applications not possible with traditional satellite platforms. After an evaluation of the past and near future nanosatellites missions in the domain of space weather and from the example of the Zegrensat/ATISE mission, we will give some perspectives on the possibilities opened by these small satellites.

A Sounding-based Severe Weather Tool to Support Daily Operations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

Science.gov (United States)

Bauman, William H.; Roeder, William P.

2014-01-01

People and property at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are at risk when severe weather occurs. Strong winds, hail and tornadoes can injure individuals and cause costly damage to structures if not properly protected. NASA's Launch Services Program and Ground Systems Development and Operations Program and other KSC programs use the daily and weekly severe weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) to determine if they need to limit an activity such as working on gantries, or protect property such as a vehicle on a pad. The 45 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a warm season (May-September) severe weather tool for use in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) based on the late morning, 1500 UTC (1100 local time), CCAFS (XMR) sounding. The 45 WS frequently makes decisions to issue a severe weather watch and other severe weather warning support products to NASA and the 45th Space Wing in the late morning, after the 1500 UTC sounding. The results of this work indicate that certain stability indices based on the late morning XMR soundings can depict differences between days with reported severe weather and days with no reported severe weather. The AMU determined a frequency of reported severe weather for the stability indices and implemented an operational tool in MIDDS.

The GOES-16 Energetic Heavy Ion Instrument Proton and Helium Fluxes for Space Weather Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Connell, J. J.; Lopate, C.

2017-12-01

The Energetic Heavy Ion Sensor (EHIS) was built by the University of New Hampshire, subcontracted to Assurance Technology Corporation, as part of the Space Environmental In-Situ Suite (SEISS) on the new GOES-16 satellite, in geostationary Earth orbit. The EHIS measures energetic ions in space over the range 10-200 MeV for protons, and energy ranges for heavy ions corresponding to the same stopping range. Though an operational satellite instrument, EHIS will supply high quality data for scientific studies. For the GOES Level 1-B and Level 2 data products, protons and helium are distinguished in the EHIS using discriminator trigger logic. Measurements are provided in five energy bands. The instrumental cadence of these rates is 3 seconds. However, the primary Level 1-B proton and helium data products are 1-minute and 5-minute averages. The data latency is 1 minute, so data products can be used for real-time predictions as well as general science studies. Protons and helium, comprising approximately 99% of all energetic ions in space are of great importance for Space Weather predictions. We discuss the preliminary EHIS proton and helium data results and their application to Space Weather. The EHIS instrument development project was funded by NASA under contract NNG06HX01C.

Developing Near Real-time Data-assimilative Models and Tools for the Space Environment, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The IDA4D and AMIE data assimilation methods are currently of limited use for real-time space weather applications because either they don't run in real-time (IDA4D)...

Phase-dependent space weathering effects and spectroscopic identification of retained helium in a lunar soil grain

Science.gov (United States)

Burgess, K. D.; Stroud, R. M.

2018-03-01

The solar wind is an important driver of space weathering on airless bodies. Over time, solar wind exposure alters the physical, chemical, and optical properties of exposed materials and can also impart a significant amount of helium into the surfaces of these bodies. However, common materials on the surface of the Moon, such as glass, crystalline silicates, and oxides, have highly variable responses to solar wind irradiation. We used scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) with electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) to examine the morphology and chemistry of a single grain of lunar soil that includes silicate glass, chromite and ilmenite, all present and exposed along the same surface. The exposure of the silicate glass and oxides to the same space weathering conditions allows for direct comparisons of the responses of natural materials to the complex lunar surface environment. The silicate glass shows minimal effects of solar wind irradiation, whereas both the chromite and ilmenite exhibit defect-rich rims that currently contain trapped helium. Only the weathered rim in ilmenite is rich in nanophase metallic iron (npFe0) and larger vesicles that retain helium at a range of internal pressures. The multiple exposed surfaces of the single grain of ilmenite demonstrate strong crystallographic controls of planar defects and non-spherical npFe0. The direct spectroscopic identification of helium in the vesicles and planar defects in the oxides provides additional evidence of the central role of solar wind irradiation in the formation of some common space weathering features.

Exploring Space Weathering on Mercury Using Global UV-VIS Reflectance Spectroscopy

Science.gov (United States)

Izenberg, N. R.; Denevi, B. W.

2018-05-01

We apply UV analysis methods used on lunar LROC data to Mercury to explore space weathering maturity and possibly evidence of shocked minerals. What says the UV // about shock, maturity // on dear Mercury?

Storm time dynamics of auroral electrojets: CHAMP observation and the Space Weather Modeling Framework comparison

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Wang

2008-03-01

Full Text Available We investigate variations of the location and intensity of auroral currents during two magnetic storm periods based on magnetic field measurements from CHAMP separately for both hemispheres, as well as for the dayside and nightside. The corresponding auroral electrojet current densities are on average enhanced by about a factor of 7 compared to the quiet time current strengths. The nightside westward current densities are on average 1.8 (2.2 times larger than the dayside eastward current densities in the Northern (Southern Hemisphere. Both eastward and westward currents are present during the storm periods with the most intense electrojets appearing during the main phase of the storm, before the ring current maximizes in strength. The eastward and westward electrojet centers can expand to 55° MLat during intense storms, as is observed on 31 March 2001 with D_st=−387 nT. The equatorward shift of auroral currents on the dayside is closely controlled by the southward IMF, while the latitudinal variations on the nightside are better described by the variations of the D_st index. However, the equatorward and poleward motion of the nightside auroral currents occur earlier than the D_st variations. The Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF can capture the general dynamics of the storm time current variations. Both the model and the actual data show that the currents tend to saturate when the merging electric field is larger than 10 mV/m. However, the exact prediction of the temporal development of the currents is still not satisfactory.

GNSS monitoring of the ionosphere for Space Weather services

Science.gov (United States)

Krankowski, A.; Sieradzki, R.; Zakharenkova, I. E.; Cherniak, I. V.

2012-04-01

The International GNSS Service (IGS) Ionosphere Working Group routinely provides the users global ionosphere maps (GIMs) of vertical total electron content (vTEC). The IGS GIMs are provided with spatial resolution of 5.0 degrees x 2.5 degrees in longitude and latitude, respectively. The current temporal resolution is 2 hours, however, 1-hour maps are delivered as a pilot project. There are three types IGS GIMs: the final, rapid and predicted. The latencies of the IGS ionospheric final and rapid products are 10 days and 1 day, respectively. The predicted GIMs are generated for 1 and 2 days in advance. There are four IGS Associate Analysis Centres (IAACs) that provide ionosphere maps computed with independent methodologies using GNSS data. These maps are uploaded to the IGS Ionosphere Combination and Validation Center at the GRL/UWM (Geodynamics Research Laboratory of the University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Poland) that produces the IGS official ionospheric products, which are published online via ftp and www. On the other hand, the increasing number of permanently tracking GNSS stations near the North Geomagnetic Pole allow for using satellite observations to detect the ionospheric disturbances at high latitudes with even higher spatial resolution. In the space weather service developed at GRL/UWM, the data from the Arctic stations belonging to IGS/EPN/POLENET networks were used to study TEC fluctuations and scintillations. Since the beginning of 2011, a near real-time service presenting the conditions in the ionosphere have been operational at GRL/UWM www site. The rate of TEC index (ROTI) expressed in TECU/min is used as a measure of TEC fluctuations. The service provides 2-hour maps of the TEC variability. In addition, for each day the daily map of the ionospheric fluctuations as a function geomagnetic local time is also created. This presentation shows the architecture, algorithms, performance and future developments of the IGS GIMs and this new space

Can We Distinguish Between Shock-Darkened and Space-Weathered Asteroids?

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kohout, Tomáš; Penttilä, A.; Gritsevich, M.; Britt, D.; Reddy, V.; Mann, P.; Haloda, J.; Halodová, P.; Grokhovsky, V.; Yakovlev, G.; Čuda, J.; Filip, J.; Muinonen, K.; Zbořil, R.

2014-01-01

Roč. 46, č. 5 (2014), s. 225-226 ISSN 0002-7537. [Annual Meeting of the Division for Planetary Sciences /46./. 09.11.2014-14.11.2014, Tuscon] Institutional support: RVO:67985831 Keywords : space weathering * reflectance spectra * olivine * asteroid * Moon Subject RIV: BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics

Approach to Integrate Global-Sun Models of Magnetic Flux Emergence and Transport for Space Weather Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Mansour, Nagi N.; Wray, Alan A.; Mehrotra, Piyush; Henney, Carl; Arge, Nick; Godinez, H.; Manchester, Ward; Koller, J.; Kosovichev, A.; Scherrer, P.;

Growing Diversity in Space Weather and Climate Change Research

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, L. P.; Ng, C.; Marchese, P.; Austin, S.; Frost, J.; Cheung, T. D.; Robbins, I.; Carlson, B. E.; Steiner, J. C.; Tremberger, G.; Paglione, T.; Damas, C.; Howard, A.; Scalzo, F.

2013-12-01

Space Weather and Global Climate Impacts are critical items on the present national and international science agendas. Understanding and forecasting solar activity is increasingly important for manned space flight, unmanned missions (including communications satellites, satellites that monitor the space and earth environment), and regional power grids. The ability to predict the effects of forcings and feedback mechanisms on global and local climate is critical to survival of the inhabitants of planet Earth. It is therefore important to motivate students to continue their studies via advanced degrees and pursue careers related to these areas. This CUNY-based initiative, supported by NASA and NSF, provided undergraduate research experience for more than 70 students in topics ranging from urban impacts of global climate change to magnetic rope structure, solar flares and CMEs. Other research topics included investigations of the ionosphere using a CubeSat, stratospheric aerosols in Jupiter's atmosphere, and ocean climate modeling. Mentors for the primarily summer research experiences included CUNY faculty, GISS and GSFC scientists. Students were recruited from CUNY colleges as well as other colleges including Spelman, Cornell, Rutgers and SUNY colleges. Fifty-eight percent of the undergraduate students were under-represented minorities and thirty-four percent were female. Many of the research teams included high school teachers and students as well as graduate students. Supporting workshops for students included data analysis and visualization tools, space weather, planetary energy balance and BalloonSats. The project is supported by NASA awards NNX10AE72G and NNX09AL77G, and NSF REU Site award 0851932.

Remote sensing optical instrumentation for enhanced space weather monitoring from the L1 and L5 Lagrange points

Science.gov (United States)

Kraft, S.; Puschmann, K. G.; Luntama, J. P.

2017-09-01

As part of the Space Situational Awareness Programme (SSA), ESA has initiated the assessment of two missions currently foreseen to be implemented to enable enhanced space weather monitoring. These missions utilize the positioning of satellites at the Lagrangian L1 and L5 points. These Phase 0 or Pre-Phase A mission studies are about to be completed and will thereby have soon passed the Mission Definition Review. Phase A studies are planned to start in 2017. The space weather monitoring system currently considers four remote sensing optical instruments and several in-situ instruments to analyse the Sun and the solar wind conditions, in order to provide early warnings of increased solar activity and to identify and mitigate potential threats to society and ground, airborne and space based infrastructure. The suggested optical instruments take heritage from ESA and NASA science missions like SOHO, STEREO and Solar Orbiter, but the instruments are foreseen to be optimized for operational space weather monitoring purposes with high reliability and robustness demands. The instruments are required to provide high quality measurements particularly during severe space weather events. The program intends to utilize the results of the on-going ESA instrument prototyping and technology development activities, and to initiate pre-developments of the operational space weather instruments to ensure the required maturity before the mission implementation.

Quantifying the daily economic impact of extreme space weather due to failure in electricity transmission infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Oughton, Edward J.; Skelton, Andrew; Horne, Richard B.; Thomson, Alan W. P.; Gaunt, Charles T.

2017-01-01

Extreme space weather due to coronal mass ejections has the potential to cause considerable disruption to the global economy by damaging the transformers required to operate electricity transmission infrastructure. However, expert opinion is split between the potential outcome being one of a temporary regional blackout and of a more prolonged event. The temporary blackout scenario proposed by some is expected to last the length of the disturbance, with normal operations resuming after a couple of days. On the other hand, others have predicted widespread equipment damage with blackout scenarios lasting months. In this paper we explore the potential costs associated with failure in the electricity transmission infrastructure in the U.S. due to extreme space weather, focusing on daily economic loss. This provides insight into the direct and indirect economic consequences of how an extreme space weather event may affect domestic production, as well as other nations, via supply chain linkages. By exploring the sensitivity of the blackout zone, we show that on average the direct economic cost incurred from disruption to electricity represents only 49% of the total potential macroeconomic cost. Therefore, if indirect supply chain costs are not considered when undertaking cost-benefit analysis of space weather forecasting and mitigation investment, the total potential macroeconomic cost is not correctly represented. The paper contributes to our understanding of the economic impact of space weather, as well as making a number of key methodological contributions relevant for future work. Further economic impact assessment of this threat must consider multiday, multiregional events.

Atmospheric Diabatic Heating in Different Weather States and the General Circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Rossow, William B.; Zhang, Yuanchong; Tselioudis, George

2016-01-01

Analysis of multiple global satellite products identifies distinctive weather states of the atmosphere from the mesoscale pattern of cloud properties and quantifies the associated diabatic heating/cooling by radiative flux divergence, precipitation, and surface sensible heat flux. The results show that the forcing for the atmospheric general circulation is a very dynamic process, varying strongly at weather space-time scales, comprising relatively infrequent, strong heating events by ''stormy'' weather and more nearly continuous, weak cooling by ''fair'' weather. Such behavior undercuts the value of analyses of time-averaged energy exchanges in observations or numerical models. It is proposed that an analysis of the joint time-related variations of the global weather states and the general circulation on weather space-time scales might be used to establish useful ''feedback like'' relationships between cloud processes and the large-scale circulation.

Decision Making and Risk Evaluation Frameworks for Extreme Space Weather Events

Science.gov (United States)

Uritskaya, O.; Robinson, R. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.

2017-12-01

Extreme Space Weather events (ESWE) are in the spotlight nowadays because they can produce a significant impact not only due to their intensity and broad geographical scope, but also because of the widespread levels and the multiple sectors of the economy that could be involved. In the task of evaluation of the ESWE consequences, the most problematic and vulnerable aspect is the determination and calculation of the probability of statistically infrequent events and the subsequent assessment of the economic risks. In this work, we conduct a detailed analysis of the available frameworks of the general Decision-Making Theory in the presence of uncertainty, in the context of their applicability for the numerical estimation of the risks and losses associated with ESWE. The results of our study demonstrate that, unlike the Multiple-criteria decision analysis or Minimax approach to modeling of the possible scenarios for the ESWE effects, which prevail in the literature, the most suitable concept is the Games Against Nature (GAN). It enables an evaluation of every economically relevant aspect of space weather conditions and obtain more detailed results. Choosing the appropriate methods for solving GAN models, i.e. determining the most optimal strategy with a given level of uncertainty, requires estimating the conditional probabilities of Space Weather events for each outcome of possible scenarios of this natural disaster. Due to the specifics of complex natural and economic systems, with which we are dealing in this case, this problem remains unsolved, mainly because of inevitable loss of information at every stage of the decision-making process. The analysis is illustrated by deregulated electricity markets of the USA and Canada, whose power grid systems are known to be perceptive to ESWE. The GAN model is more appropriate in identifying potential risks in economic systems. The proposed approach, when applied to the existing database of Space Weather observations and

Cloud-Based Numerical Weather Prediction for Near Real-Time Forecasting and Disaster Response

Science.gov (United States)

Molthan, Andrew; Case, Jonathan; Venners, Jason; Schroeder, Richard; Checchi, Milton; Zavodsky, Bradley; Limaye, Ashutosh; O'Brien, Raymond

2015-01-01

The use of cloud computing resources continues to grow within the public and private sector components of the weather enterprise as users become more familiar with cloud-computing concepts, and competition among service providers continues to reduce costs and other barriers to entry. Cloud resources can also provide capabilities similar to high-performance computing environments, supporting multi-node systems required for near real-time, regional weather predictions. Referred to as "Infrastructure as a Service", or IaaS, the use of cloud-based computing hardware in an on-demand payment system allows for rapid deployment of a modeling system in environments lacking access to a large, supercomputing infrastructure. Use of IaaS capabilities to support regional weather prediction may be of particular interest to developing countries that have not yet established large supercomputing resources, but would otherwise benefit from a regional weather forecasting capability. Recently, collaborators from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and Ames Research Center have developed a scripted, on-demand capability for launching the NOAA/NWS Science and Training Resource Center (STRC) Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which includes pre-compiled binaries of the latest version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF-EMS provides scripting for downloading appropriate initial and boundary conditions from global models, along with higher-resolution vegetation, land surface, and sea surface temperature data sets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center. This presentation will provide an overview of the modeling system capabilities and benchmarks performed on the Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) environment. In addition, the presentation will discuss future opportunities to deploy the system in support of weather prediction in developing countries supported by NASA's SERVIR Project, which provides capacity building

Confronting data requirements and data provision in Space Weather: The Contribution of Long Term Archives. Part 2.

Science.gov (United States)

Glover, Alexi; Heynderickx, Daniel

Operational space weather services rely heavily on reliable data streams from spacecraft and ground-based facilities, as well as from services providing processed data products. This event focuses on an unusual solar maximum viewed from several different perspectives, and as such highlights the important contribution of long term archives in supporting space weather studies and services. We invite the space weather community to contribute to a discussion on the key topics listed below, with the aim of formulating recommendations and guidelines for policy makers, stakeholders, data and service providers: - facilitating access to and awareness of existing data resources - establishing clear guidelines for space weather data archives including data quality, interoperability and metadata standards - ensuring data ownership and terms of (re)use are clearly identified such that this information can be taken into account when (potentially commercial) services are developed based on data provided without charge for scientific purposes only All participants are invited to submit input for the discussion to the authors ahead of the Assembly. The outcome of the session will be formulated as a set of proposed panel recommendations.

Confronting data requirements and data provision in Space Weather: The Contribution of Long Term Archives. Part 1.

Science.gov (United States)

Heynderickx, Daniel; Glover, Alexi

Operational space weather services rely heavily on reliable data streams from spacecraft and ground-based facilities, as well as from services providing processed data products. This event focuses on an unusual solar maximum viewed from several different perspectives, and as such highlights the important contribution of long term archives in supporting space weather studies and services. We invite the space weather community to contribute to a discussion on the key topics listed below, with the aim of formulating recommendations and guidelines for policy makers, stakeholders, data and service providers: - facilitating access to and awareness of existing data resources - establishing clear guidelines for space weather data archives including data quality, interoperability and metadata standards - ensuring data ownership and terms of (re)use are clearly identified such that this information can be taken into account when (potentially commercial) services are developed based on data provided without charge for scientific purposes only All participants are invited to submit input for the discussion to the authors ahead of the Assembly. The outcome of the session will be formulated as a set of proposed panel recommendations.

Space weathering on near-Earth objects investigated by neutral-particle detection

Science.gov (United States)

Plainaki, C.; Milillo, A.; Orsini, S.; Mura, A.; de Angelis, E.; di Lellis, A. M.; Dotto, E.; Livi, S.; Mangano, V.; Palumbo, M. E.

2009-04-01

The ion-sputtering (IS) process is active in many planetary environments in the solar system where plasma precipitates directly on the surface (for instance, Mercury, Moon and Europa). In particular, solar wind sputtering is one of the most important agents for the surface erosion of a near-Earth object (NEO), acting together with other surface release processes, such as photon stimulated desorption (PSD), thermal desorption (TD) and micrometeoroid impact vaporization (MIV). The energy distribution of the IS-released neutrals peaks at a few eVs and extends up to hundreds of eVs. Since all other release processes produce particles of lower energies, the presence of neutral atoms in the energy range above 10 eV and below a few keVs (sputtered high-energy atoms (SHEA)) identifies the IS process. SHEA easily escape from the NEO, due to NEO's extremely weak gravity. Detection and analysis of SHEA will give important information on surface-loss processes as well as on surface elemental composition. The investigation of the active release processes, as a function of the external conditions and the NEO surface properties, is crucial for obtaining a clear view of the body's present loss rate as well as for getting clues on its evolution, which depends significantly on space weather. In this work, an attempt to analyze processes that take place on the surface of these small airless bodies, as a result of their exposure to the space environment, has been realized. For this reason, a new space weathering model (space weathering on NEO-SPAWN) is presented. Moreover, an instrument concept of a neutral-particle analyzer specifically designed for the measurement of neutral density and the detection of SHEA from a NEO is proposed.

Understanding space weather with new physical, mathematical and philosophical approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Mateev, Lachezar; Velinov, Peter; Tassev, Yordan

2016-07-01

The actual problems of solar-terrestrial physics, in particular of space weather are related to the prediction of the space environment state and are solved by means of different analyses and models. The development of these investigations can be considered also from another side. This is the philosophical and mathematical approach towards this physical reality. What does it constitute? We have a set of physical processes which occur in the Sun and interplanetary space. All these processes interact with each other and simultaneously participate in the general process which forms the space weather. Let us now consider the Leibniz's monads (G.W. von Leibniz, 1714, Monadologie, Wien; Id., 1710, Théodicée, Amsterdam) and use some of their properties. There are total 90 theses for monads in the Leibniz's work (1714), f.e. "(1) The Monad, of which we shall here speak, is nothing but a simple substance, which enters into compounds. By 'simple' is meant 'without parts'. (Theod. 10.); … (56) Now this connexion or adaptation of all created things to each and of each to all, means that each simple substance has relations which express all the others, and, consequently, that it is a perpetual living mirror of the universe. (Theod. 130, 360.); (59) … this universal harmony, according to which every substance exactly expresses all others through the relations it has with them. (63) … every Monad is, in its own way, a mirror of the universe, and the universe is ruled according to a perfect order. (Theod. 403.)", etc. Let us introduce in the properties of monads instead of the word "monad" the word "process". We obtain the following statement: Each process reflects all other processes and all other processes reflect this process. This analogy is not formal at all, it reflects accurately the relation between the physical processes and their unity. The category monad which in the Leibniz's Monadology reflects generally the philosophical sense is fully identical with the

Space-Time Transformation in Flux-form Semi-Lagrangian Schemes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter C. Chu Chenwu Fan

2010-01-01

Full Text Available With a finite volume approach, a flux-form semi-Lagrangian (TFSL scheme with space-time transformation was developed to provide stable and accurate algorithm in solving the advection-diffusion equation. Different from the existing flux-form semi-Lagrangian schemes, the temporal integration of the flux from the present to the next time step is transformed into a spatial integration of the flux at the side of a grid cell (space for the present time step using the characteristic-line concept. The TFSL scheme not only keeps the good features of the semi-Lagrangian schemes (no Courant number limitation, but also has higher accuracy (of a second order in both time and space. The capability of the TFSL scheme is demonstrated by the simulation of the equatorial Rossby-soliton propagation. Computational stability and high accuracy makes this scheme useful in ocean modeling, computational fluid dynamics, and numerical weather prediction.

Space-Time Crystal and Space-Time Group.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Shenglong; Wu, Congjun

2018-03-02

Crystal structures and the Bloch theorem play a fundamental role in condensed matter physics. We extend the static crystal to the dynamic "space-time" crystal characterized by the general intertwined space-time periodicities in D+1 dimensions, which include both the static crystal and the Floquet crystal as special cases. A new group structure dubbed a "space-time" group is constructed to describe the discrete symmetries of a space-time crystal. Compared to space and magnetic groups, the space-time group is augmented by "time-screw" rotations and "time-glide" reflections involving fractional translations along the time direction. A complete classification of the 13 space-time groups in one-plus-one dimensions (1+1D) is performed. The Kramers-type degeneracy can arise from the glide time-reversal symmetry without the half-integer spinor structure, which constrains the winding number patterns of spectral dispersions. In 2+1D, nonsymmorphic space-time symmetries enforce spectral degeneracies, leading to protected Floquet semimetal states. We provide a general framework for further studying topological properties of the (D+1)-dimensional space-time crystal.

Space Weathering Evolution on Airless Bodies - Laboratory Simulations with Olivine

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kohout, Tomáš; Čuda, J.; Bradley, T.; Britt, D.; Filip, J.; Tuček, J.; Malina, O.; Kašlík, J.; Šišková, K.; Zbořil, R.

2013-01-01

Roč. 45, č. 9 (2013), s. 25-26 ISSN 0002-7537. [Annual meeting of the Division for Planetary Sciences of the American Astronomical Society /45./. 06.10.2013-11.10.2013, Denver] Institutional support: RVO:67985831 Keywords : space weathering * asteroid * Moon * olivine Subject RIV: BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics http://aas.org/files/resources/dps_abstract_book.pdf

GPU-Accelerated Real-Time Surveillance De-Weathering

OpenAIRE

Pettersson, Niklas

2013-01-01

A fully automatic de-weathering system to increase the visibility/stability in surveillance applications during bad weather has been developed. Rain, snow and haze during daylight are handled in real-time performance with acceleration from CUDA implemented algorithms. Video from fixed cameras is processed on a PC with no need of special hardware except an NVidia GPU. The system does not use any background model and does not require any precalibration. Increase in contrast is obtained in all h...

Validation of foF2 and TEC Modeling During Geomagnetic Disturbed Times: Preliminary Outcomes of International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Shim, J. S.; Tsagouri, I.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Kuznetsova, M. M.

2017-12-01

To address challenges of assessment of space weather modeling capabilities, the CCMC (Community Coordinated Modeling Center) is leading the newly established "International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment." This presentation will focus on preliminary outcomes of the International Forum on validation of modeled foF2 and TEC during geomagnetic storms. We investigate the ionospheric response to 2013 Mar. geomagnetic storm event using ionosonde and GPS TEC observations in North American and European sectors. To quantify storm impacts on foF2 and TEC, we first quantify quiet-time variations of foF2 and TEC (e.g., the median and the average of the five quietest days for the 30 days during quiet conditions). It appears that the quiet time variation of foF2 and TEC are about 10% and 20-30%, respectively. Therefore, to quantify storm impact, we focus on foF2 and TEC changes during the storm main phase larger than 20% and 50%, respectively, compared to 30-day median. We find that in European sector, both foF2 and TEC response to the storm are mainly positive phase with foF2 increase of up to 100% and TEC increase of 150%. In North America sector, however, foF2 shows negative effects (up to about 50% decrease), while TEC shows positive response (the largest increase is about 200%). To assess modeling capability of reproducing the changes of foF2 and TEC due to the storm, we use various model simulations, which are obtained from empirical, physics-based, and data assimilation models. The performance of each model depends on the selected metrics, therefore, only one metrics is not enough to evaluate the models' predictive capabilities in capturing the storm impact. The performance of the model also varies with latitude and longitude.

Terrestrial Planet Space Weather Information: An Update

Science.gov (United States)

Luhmann, J. G.; Li, Y.; Lee, C.; Mays, M. L.; Odstrcil, D.; Jian, L.; Galvin, A. B.; Mewaldt, R. A.; von Rosenvinge, T. T.; Russell, C. T.; Halekas, J. S.; Connerney, J. E. P.; Jakosky, B. M.; Thompson, W. T.; Baker, D. N.; Dewey, R. M.; Zheng, Y.; Holmstrom, M.; Futaana, Y.

2015-12-01

Space weather research is now a solar system-wide enterprise. While with the end of the Venus Express Express mission and MESSENGER, we lost our 'inside' sentinels, new missions such as Solar Orbiter and SPP, and Bepi-Colombo will soon be launched and operating. In the meantime the combination of L1 resources (ACE,WIND,SOHO) and STEREO-A at 1 AU, and Mars Express and MAVEN missions at ~1.5 AU, provide opportunities. Comparative conditions at the Earth orbit and Mars orbit locations are of special interest because they are separated by the region where most solar wind stream interaction regions develop. These alter the propagation of disturbances including the interplanetary CME-driven shocks that make the space radiation affecting future Human mission planning. We share some observational and modeling results thatillustrate present capabilities, as well as developing ones such as ENLIL-based SEP event models that use a range of available observations.

Advanced Analysis and Visualization of Space Weather Phenomena

Science.gov (United States)

Murphy, Joshua J.

As the world becomes more technologically reliant, the more susceptible society as a whole is to adverse interactions with the sun. This "space weather'' can produce significant effects on modern technology, from interrupting satellite service, to causing serious damage to Earth-side power grids. These concerns have, over the past several years, prompted an out-welling of research in an attempt to understand the processes governing, and to provide a means of forecasting, space weather events. The research presented in this thesis couples to current work aimed at understanding Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and their influence on the evolution of Earth's magnetic field and associated Van Allen radiation belts. To aid in the analysis of how these solar wind transients affect Earth's magnetic field, a system named Geospace/Heliosphere Observation & Simulation Tool-kit (GHOSTkit), along with its python analysis tools, GHOSTpy, has been devised to calculate the adiabatic invariants of trapped particle motion within Earth's magnetic field. These invariants aid scientists in ordering observations of the radiation belts, providing a more natural presentation of data, but can be computationally expensive to calculate. The GHOSTpy system, in the phase presented here, is aimed at providing invariant calculations based on LFM magnetic field simulation data. This research first examines an ideal dipole application to gain understanding on system performance. Following this, the challenges of applying the algorithms to gridded LFM MHD data is examined. Performance profiles are then presented, followed by a real-world application of the system.

Space weather: Modeling and forecasting ionospheric

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calzadilla Mendez, A.

2008-01-01

Full text: Space weather is the set of phenomena and interactions that take place in the interplanetary medium. It is regulated primarily by the activity originating in the Sun and affects both the artificial satellites that are outside of the protective cover of the Earth's atmosphere as the rest of the planets in the solar system. Among the phenomena that are of great relevance and impact on Earth are the auroras and geomagnetic storms , these are a direct result of irregularities in the flow of the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field . Given the high complexity of the physical phenomena involved (magnetic reconnection , particle inlet and ionizing radiation to the atmosphere) one of the great scientific challenges today is to forecast the state of plasmatic means either the interplanetary medium , the magnetosphere and ionosphere , for their importance to the development of various human activities such as radio , global positioning , navigation, etc. . It briefly address some of the international ionospheric modeling methods and contributions and participation that currently has the space group of the Institute of Geophysics Geophysics and Astronomy (IGA) in these activities of modeling and forecasting ionospheric. (author)

A Real-Time Offshore Weather Risk Advisory System

Science.gov (United States)

Jolivet, Samuel; Zemskyy, Pavlo; Mynampati, Kalyan; Babovic, Vladan

2015-04-01

Offshore oil and gas operations in South East Asia periodically face extended downtime due to unpredictable weather conditions, including squalls that are accompanied by strong winds, thunder, and heavy rains. This downtime results in financial losses. Hence, a real time weather risk advisory system is developed to provide the offshore Oil and Gas (O&G) industry specific weather warnings in support of safety and environment security. This system provides safe operating windows based on sensitivity of offshore operations to sea state. Information products for safety and security include area of squall occurrence for the next 24 hours, time before squall strike, and heavy sea state warning for the next 3, 6, 12 & 24 hours. These are predicted using radar now-cast, high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Data Assimilation (DA). Radar based now-casting leverages the radar data to produce short term (up to 3 hours) predictions of severe weather events including squalls/thunderstorms. A sea state approximation is provided through developing a translational model based on these predictions to risk rank the sensitivity of operations. A high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF, an open source NWP model) is developed for offshore Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines. This high resolution model is optimized and validated against the adaptation of temperate to tropical met-ocean parameterization. This locally specific parameters are calibrated against federated data to achieve a 24 hour forecast of high resolution Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). CAPE is being used as a proxy for the risk of squall occurrence. Spectral decomposition is used to blend the outputs of the now-cast and the forecast in order to assimilate near real time weather observations as an implementation of the integration of data sources. This system uses the now-cast for the first 3 hours and then the forecast prediction horizons of 3, 6, 12 & 24 hours. The output is

Understanding space weather to shield society: A global road map for 2015-2025 commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS

OpenAIRE

Schrijver, Carolus J.; Kauristie, Kirsti; Aylward, Alan D.; Denardini, Clezio M.; Gibson, Sarah E.; Glover, Alexi; Gopalswamy, Nat; Grande, Manuel; Hapgood, Mike; Heynderickx, Daniel; Jakowski, Norbert; Kalegaev, Vladimir V.; Lapenta, Giovanni; Linker, Jon A.; Liu, Siqing

2017-01-01

There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. We recognize that much progress has been made and continues to be made with a powerful suite of research observatories on the ground and in space, forming the ...

Briefing Highlights Vulnerability of GPS to Adverse Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Balcerak, Ernie

2011-08-01

Through its effects on GPS and other technologies, space weather can affect a variety of industries, including agriculture, commercial air travel, and emergency response. Speakers focused on these topics at a 22 June briefing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D. C. Solar flares can produce radio bursts that directly interfere with GPS signals. Solar activity can also cause ionospheric disturbances that produce distortions and delays in GPS signals, degrading the accuracy of positioning and navigation systems.

Space Weather Magnetometer Set with Automated AC Spacecraft Field Correction for GEO-KOMPSAT-2A

Science.gov (United States)

Auster, U.; Magnes, W.; Delva, M.; Valavanoglou, A.; Leitner, S.; Hillenmaier, O.; Strauch, C.; Brown, P.; Whiteside, B.; Bendyk, M.; Hilgers, A.; Kraft, S.; Luntama, J. P.; Seon, J.

2016-05-01

Monitoring the solar wind conditions, in particular its magnetic field (interplanetary magnetic field) ahead of the Earth is essential in performing accurate and reliable space weather forecasting. The magnetic condition of the spacecraft itself is a key parameter for the successful performance of the magnetometer onboard. In practice a condition with negligible magnetic field of the spacecraft cannot always be fulfilled and magnetic sources on the spacecraft interfere with the natural magnetic field measured by the space magnetometer. The presented "ready-to-use" Service Oriented Spacecraft Magnetometer (SOSMAG) is developed for use on any satellite implemented without magnetic cleanliness programme. It enables detection of the spacecraft field AC variations on a proper time scale suitable to distinguish the magnetic field variations relevant to space weather phenomena, such as sudden increase in the interplanetary field or southward turning. This is achieved through the use of dual fluxgate magnetometers on a short boom (1m) and two additional AMR sensors on the spacecraft body, which monitor potential AC disturbers. The measurements of the latter sensors enable an automated correction of the AC signal contributions from the spacecraft in the final magnetic vector. After successful development and test of the EQM prototype, a flight model (FM) is being built for the Korean satellite Geo-Kompsat 2A, with launch foreseen in 2018.

Visualizing Space Weather: The Planeterrella Auroral Simulator as a Heliophysics Public Outreach Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Masongsong, E. V.; Lilensten, J.; Booth, M. J.; Suri, G.; Heflinger, T. G.; Angelopoulos, V.

2014-12-01

The NASA THEMIS and ARTEMIS satellite missions study "space weather," which describes the solar wind influence on Earth's protective magnetic shield, the magnetosphere. Space weather is important to study and predict because it can damage critical GPS and communications satellites, harm space travelers, and even disable our global electrical grid. The Planeterrella is an innovative heliophysics outreach demonstration, expanding public awareness of space weather by visualizing the sun-Earth connection up close and in-person. Using a glass vacuum chamber, two magnetized spheres and a 1kV power supply, the device can simulate plasma configurations of the solar corona, solar wind, Van Allen radiation belts, and auroral ovals, all of which are observable only by satellites. This "aurora in a bottle" is a modernized version of the original Terrella built by Kristian Birkeland in the 1890s to show that the aurora are electrical in nature. Adapted from plans by Lilensten et al. at CNRS-IPAG, the UCLA Planeterrella was completed in Nov. 2013, the second device of its kind in the U.S., and the centerpiece of the THEMIS/ARTEMIS mobile public outreach exhibit. In combination with captivating posters, 3D magnetic field models, dazzling aurora videos and magnetosphere animations, the Planeterrella has already introduced over 1200 people to the electrical link between our sun and the planets. Most visitors had seen solar flare images in the news, however the Planeterrella experience enhanced their appreciation of the dynamic solar wind and its effects on Earth's invisible magnetic field. Most importantly, visitors young and old realized that magnets are not just cool toys or only for powering hybrid car motors and MRIs, they are a fundamental aspect of ongoing life on Earth and are key to the formation and evolution of planets, moons, and stars, extending far beyond our galaxy to other planetary systems throughout the universe. Novel visualizations such as the Planeterrella can

The Planeterrella: an Analog Model for Teaching About the Invisible Electromagnetic Processes Driving Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Masongsong, E. V.; Glesener, G. B.; Angelopoulos, V.; Lilensten, J.; Bingley, L.

2015-12-01

The Planeterrella can be used as an analog to help students visualize and understand the electromagnetic processes driving space weather that affect our daily lives. Solar storms and solar wind charged particles (plasma) cause "space weather" via their interaction with Earth's protective magnetic shield, the magnetosphere. The Planeterrella uses magnetized spheres in a vacuum chamber to demonstrate solar wind energy transfer to Earth and planets, with polar localization of aurora due to charged particles traveling along geomagnetic field lines. The Planeterrella provides a unique opportunity to experience and manipulate plasma, the dominant form of matter in our universe, yet seldom observable on Earth. Severe space weather events produce spectacular auroral displays as well as devastating consequences: radiation exposure to air and space travelers, prolonged radio blackouts, and damage to critical GPS and communications satellites. We will (1) discuss ways in which the Planeterrella may be most useful in classroom settings, including large lecture halls, laboratories, and small discussion sessions; (2) provide information on how instructors can produce their own Planeterrella for their courses; and (3) invite meeting attendees to engage in a discussion on how we might be able to improve on the current design of the Planeterrella, and how to reach students in more parts of the world.

Effect of solar wind plasma parameters on space weather

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rathore, Balveer S.; Gupta, Dinesh C.; Kaushik, Subhash C.

2015-01-01

Today's challenge for space weather research is to quantitatively predict the dynamics of the magnetosphere from measured solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions. Correlative studies between geomagnetic storms (GMSs) and the various interplanetary (IP) field/plasma parameters have been performed to search for the causes of geomagnetic activity and develop models for predicting the occurrence of GMSs, which are important for space weather predictions. We find a possible relation between GMSs and solar wind and IMF parameters in three different situations and also derived the linear relation for all parameters in three situations. On the basis of the present statistical study, we develop an empirical model. With the help of this model, we can predict all categories of GMSs. This model is based on the following fact: the total IMF B total can be used to trigger an alarm for GMSs, when sudden changes in total magnetic field B total occur. This is the first alarm condition for a storm's arrival. It is observed in the present study that the southward B z component of the IMF is an important factor for describing GMSs. A result of the paper is that the magnitude of B z is maximum neither during the initial phase (at the instant of the IP shock) nor during the main phase (at the instant of Disturbance storm time (Dst) minimum). It is seen in this study that there is a time delay between the maximum value of southward B z and the Dst minimum, and this time delay can be used in the prediction of the intensity of a magnetic storm two-three hours before the main phase of a GMS. A linear relation has been derived between the maximum value of the southward component of B z and the Dst, which is Dst = (−0.06) + (7.65) B z +t. Some auxiliary conditions should be fulfilled with this, for example the speed of the solar wind should, on average, be 350 km s −1 to 750 km s −1 , plasma β should be low and, most importantly, plasma temperature

Solar weather monitoring

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.-F. Hochedez

2005-11-01

Full Text Available Space Weather nowcasting and forecasting require solar observations because geoeffective disturbances can arise from three types of solar phenomena: coronal mass ejections (CMEs, flares and coronal holes. For each, we discuss their definition and review their precursors in terms of remote sensing and in-situ observations. The objectives of Space Weather require some specific instrumental features, which we list using the experience gained from the daily operations of the Solar Influences Data analysis Centre (SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium. Nowcasting requires real-time monitoring to assess quickly and reliably the severity of any potentially geoeffective solar event. Both research and forecasting could incorporate more observations in order to feed case studies and data assimilation respectively. Numerical models will result in better predictions of geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP events. We review the data types available to monitor solar activity and interplanetary conditions. They come from space missions and ground observatories and range from sequences of dopplergrams, magnetograms, white-light, chromospheric, coronal, coronagraphic and radio images, to irradiance and in-situ time-series. Their role is summarized together with indications about current and future solar monitoring instruments.

Space Weather at Mars: MAVEN and MSL/RAD Observations of CME and SEP Events

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, C. O.; Ehresmann, B.; Lillis, R. J.; Dunn, P.; Rahmati, A.; Larson, D. E.; Guo, J.; Zeitlin, C.; Luhmann, J. G.; Halekas, J. S.; Espley, J. R.; Thiemann, E.; Hassler, D.

2017-12-01

While MAVEN have been observing the space weather conditions driven by ICMEs and SEPs in orbit around Mars, MSL/RAD have been measuring the surface radiation environment due to E > 150 MeV/nuc SEPs and the higher-energy galactic cosmic rays. The suite of MAVEN instruments measuring the particles (SEP), plasma (SWIA) and fields (MAG) information provides detailed local space weather information regarding the solar activity-related fluctuations in the measured surface dose rates. At the same time, the related enhancements in the RAD surface dose rates indicate the degree to which the SEPs affect the lower atmosphere and surface. We will present an overview of the MAVEN observations together with the MSL/RAD measurements and focus our discussion on a number of space weather events driven by CMEs and SEPs. During the March 2015 solar storm period, a succession of CMEs produced intense SEP proton fluxes that were detected by MAVEN/SEP in the 20 keV to 6 MeV detected energy channels. At higher energies, MAVEN/SEP record `FTO' SEP events that were triggered by > 13 MeV energetic protons passing through all three silicon detector layers (Front, Thick, and Open). Using the detector response matrix for an FTO event (incident energy vs detected energy), the minimum incident energy of the SEP protons observed in March 2015 was inferred to be > 40 MeV. The lack of any notable enhancements in the surface dose rate by MSL/RAD suggests that the highest incident energies of the SEP protons were 150 MeV SEP protons impacted the Martian atmosphere and surface. The source of the October 2015 SEP event was probably the CME that erupted near the solar west limb with respect to the Sun-Mars line. As part of the discussion, we will also show solar-heliospheric observations from near-Earth assets together with WSA-Enlil-cone results for some global heliospheric context.

Virtual Planetary Space Weather Services offered by the Europlanet H2020 Research Infrastructure

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

André, N.; Grande, M.; Achilleos, N.; Barthélémy, M.; Bouchemit, M.; Benson, K.; Blelly, P. L.; Budnik, E.; Caussarieu, S.; Cecconi, B.; Cook, T.; Génot, V.; Guio, P.; Goutenoir, A.; Grison, Benjamin; Hueso, R.; Indurain, M.; Jones, G. H.; Lilensten, J.; Marchaudon, A.; Matthiä, D.; Opitz, A.; Rouillard, A.; Stanislawska, I.; Souček, Jan; Tao, C.; Tomasik, L.; Vaubaillon, J.

2018-01-01

Roč. 150, SI (2018), s. 50-59 ISSN 0032-0633 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 654208 - EPN2020-RI Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : virtual observatory * space weather * planets * comets * solar wind * meteor showers Subject RIV: BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics OBOR OECD: Astronomy (including astrophysics,space science) Impact factor: 1.892, year: 2016 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0032063316304706

Physics-based Space Weather Forecasting in the Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP) in Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Kusano, K.

2016-12-01

Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP) is a Japanese nation-wide research collaboration, which was recently launched. PSTEP aims to develop a synergistic interaction between predictive and scientific studies of the solar-terrestrial environment and to establish the basis for next-generation space weather forecasting using the state-of-the-art observation systems and the physics-based models. For this project, we coordinate the four research groups, which develop (1) the integration of space weather forecast system, (2) the physics-based solar storm prediction, (3) the predictive models of magnetosphere and ionosphere dynamics, and (4) the model of solar cycle activity and its impact on climate, respectively. In this project, we will build the coordinated physics-based model to answer the fundamental questions concerning the onset of solar eruptions and the mechanism for radiation belt dynamics in the Earth's magnetosphere. In this paper, we will show the strategy of PSTEP, and discuss about the role and prospect of the physics-based space weather forecasting system being developed by PSTEP.

A space weather forecasting system with multiple satellites based on a self-recognizing network.

Science.gov (United States)

Tokumitsu, Masahiro; Ishida, Yoshiteru

2014-05-05

This paper proposes a space weather forecasting system at geostationary orbit for high-energy electron flux (>2 MeV). The forecasting model involves multiple sensors on multiple satellites. The sensors interconnect and evaluate each other to predict future conditions at geostationary orbit. The proposed forecasting model is constructed using a dynamic relational network for sensor diagnosis and event monitoring. The sensors of the proposed model are located at different positions in space. The satellites for solar monitoring equip with monitoring devices for the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind speed. The satellites orbit near the Earth monitoring high-energy electron flux. We investigate forecasting for typical two examples by comparing the performance of two models with different numbers of sensors. We demonstrate the prediction by the proposed model against coronal mass ejections and a coronal hole. This paper aims to investigate a possibility of space weather forecasting based on the satellite network with in-situ sensing.

A Space Weather Forecasting System with Multiple Satellites Based on a Self-Recognizing Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Masahiro Tokumitsu

2014-05-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a space weather forecasting system at geostationary orbit for high-energy electron flux (>2 MeV. The forecasting model involves multiple sensors on multiple satellites. The sensors interconnect and evaluate each other to predict future conditions at geostationary orbit. The proposed forecasting model is constructed using a dynamic relational network for sensor diagnosis and event monitoring. The sensors of the proposed model are located at different positions in space. The satellites for solar monitoring equip with monitoring devices for the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind speed. The satellites orbit near the Earth monitoring high-energy electron flux. We investigate forecasting for typical two examples by comparing the performance of two models with different numbers of sensors. We demonstrate the prediction by the proposed model against coronal mass ejections and a coronal hole. This paper aims to investigate a possibility of space weather forecasting based on the satellite network with in-situ sensing.

New Technologies for Weather Accident Prevention

Science.gov (United States)

Stough, H. Paul, III; Watson, James F., Jr.; Daniels, Taumi S.; Martzaklis, Konstantinos S.; Jarrell, Michael A.; Bogue, Rodney K.

2005-01-01

Weather is a causal factor in thirty percent of all aviation accidents. Many of these accidents are due to a lack of weather situation awareness by pilots in flight. Improving the strategic and tactical weather information available and its presentation to pilots in flight can enhance weather situation awareness and enable avoidance of adverse conditions. This paper presents technologies for airborne detection, dissemination and display of weather information developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), industry and the research community. These technologies, currently in the initial stages of implementation by industry, will provide more precise and timely knowledge of the weather and enable pilots in flight to make decisions that result in safer and more efficient operations.

Operation of a Data Acquisition, Transfer, and Storage System for the Global Space-Weather Observation Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T Nagatsuma

2014-10-01

Full Text Available A system to optimize the management of global space-weather observation networks has been developed by the National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT. Named the WONM (Wide-area Observation Network Monitoring system, it enables data acquisition, transfer, and storage through connection to the NICT Science Cloud, and has been supplied to observatories for supporting space-weather forecast and research. This system provides us with easier management of data collection than our previously employed systems by means of autonomous system recovery, periodical state monitoring, and dynamic warning procedures. Operation of the WONM system is introduced in this report.

Space Weather Research at the National Science Foundation

Science.gov (United States)

Moretto, T.

2015-12-01

There is growing recognition that the space environment can have substantial, deleterious, impacts on society. Consequently, research enabling specification and forecasting of hazardous space effects has become of great importance and urgency. This research requires studying the entire Sun-Earth system to understand the coupling of regions all the way from the source of disturbances in the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The traditional, region-based structure of research programs in Solar and Space physics is ill suited to fully support the change in research directions that the problem of space weather dictates. On the observational side, dense, distributed networks of observations are required to capture the full large-scale dynamics of the space environment. However, the cost of implementing these is typically prohibitive, especially for measurements in space. Thus, by necessity, the implementation of such new capabilities needs to build on creative and unconventional solutions. A particularly powerful idea is the utilization of new developments in data engineering and informatics research (big data). These new technologies make it possible to build systems that can collect and process huge amounts of noisy and inaccurate data and extract from them useful information. The shift in emphasis towards system level science for geospace also necessitates the development of large-scale and multi-scale models. The development of large-scale models capable of capturing the global dynamics of the Earth's space environment requires investment in research team efforts that go beyond what can typically be funded under the traditional grants programs. This calls for effective interdisciplinary collaboration and efficient leveraging of resources both nationally and internationally. This presentation will provide an overview of current and planned initiatives, programs, and activities at the National Science Foundation pertaining to space weathe research.

Climate and weather impact timing of emergence of bats.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Winifred F Frick

Full Text Available Interest in forecasting impacts of climate change have heightened attention in recent decades to how animals respond to variation in climate and weather patterns. One difficulty in determining animal response to climate variation is lack of long-term datasets that record animal behaviors over decadal scales. We used radar observations from the national NEXRAD network of Doppler weather radars to measure how group behavior in a colonially-roosting bat species responded to annual variation in climate and daily variation in weather over the past 11 years. Brazilian free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis form dense aggregations in cave roosts in Texas. These bats emerge from caves daily to forage at high altitudes, which makes them detectable with Doppler weather radars. Timing of emergence in bats is often viewed as an adaptive trade-off between emerging early and risking predation or increased competition and emerging late which restricts foraging opportunities. We used timing of emergence from five maternity colonies of Brazilian free-tailed bats in south-central Texas during the peak lactation period (15 June-15 July to determine whether emergence behavior was associated with summer drought conditions and daily temperatures. Bats emerged significantly earlier during years with extreme drought conditions than during moist years. Bats emerged later on days with high surface temperatures in both dry and moist years, but there was no relationship between surface temperatures and timing of emergence in summers with normal moisture levels. We conclude that emergence behavior is a flexible animal response to climate and weather conditions and may be a useful indicator for monitoring animal response to long-term shifts in climate.

Space weather modeling using artificial neural network. (Slovak Title: Modelovanie kozmického počasia umelou neurónovou sietou)

Science.gov (United States)

Valach, F.; Revallo, M.; Hejda, P.; Bochníček, J.

2010-12-01

Our modern society with its advanced technology is becoming increasingly vulnerable to the Earth's system disorders originating in explosive processes on the Sun. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) blasted into interplanetary space as gigantic clouds of ionized gas can hit Earth within a few hours or days and cause, among other effects, geomagnetic storms - perhaps the best known manifestation of solar wind interaction with Earth's magnetosphere. Solar energetic particles (SEP), accelerated to near relativistic energy during large solar storms, arrive at the Earth's orbit even in few minutes and pose serious risk to astronauts traveling through the interplanetary space. These and many other threats are the reason why experts pay increasing attention to space weather and its predictability. For research on space weather, it is typically necessary to examine a large number of parameters which are interrelated in a complex non-linear way. One way to cope with such a task is to use an artificial neural network for space weather modeling, a tool originally developed for artificial intelligence. In our contribution, we focus on practical aspects of the neural networks application to modeling and forecasting selected space weather parameters.

Comparison of EISCAT and ionosonde electron densities: application to a ground-based ionospheric segment of a space weather programme

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Lilensten

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Space weather applications require real-time data and wide area observations from both ground- and space-based instrumentation. From space, the global navigation satellite system - GPS - is an important tool. From the ground the incoherent scatter (IS radar technique permits a direct measurement up to the topside region, while ionosondes give good measurements of the lower part of the ionosphere. An important issue is the intercalibration of these various instruments. In this paper, we address the intercomparison of the EISCAT IS radar and two ionosondes located at Tromsø (Norway, at times when GPS measurements were also available. We show that even EISCAT data calibrated using ionosonde data can lead to different values of total electron content (TEC when compared to that obtained from GPS.

Understanding space weather to shield society: A global road map for 2015-2025 commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS

Science.gov (United States)

Schrijver, Carolus J.; Kauristie, Kirsti; Aylward, Alan D.; Denardini, Clezio M.; Gibson, Sarah E.; Glover, Alexi; Gopalswamy, Nat; Grande, Manuel; Hapgood, Mike; Heynderickx, Daniel; Jakowski, Norbert; Kalegaev, Vladimir V.; Lapenta, Giovanni; Linker, Jon A.; Liu, Siqing; Mandrini, Cristina H.; Mann, Ian R.; Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Nandy, Dibyendu; Obara, Takahiro; Paul O'Brien, T.; Onsager, Terrance; Opgenoorth, Hermann J.; Terkildsen, Michael; Valladares, Cesar E.; Vilmer, Nicole

2015-06-01

There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. We recognize that much progress has been made and continues to be made with a powerful suite of research observatories on the ground and in space, forming the basis of a Sun-Earth system observatory. But the domain of space weather is vast - extending from deep within the Sun to far outside the planetary orbits - and the physics complex - including couplings between various types of physical processes that link scales and domains from the microscopic to large parts of the solar system. Consequently, advanced understanding of space weather requires a coordinated international approach to effectively provide awareness of the processes within the Sun-Earth system through observation-driven models. This roadmap prioritizes the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications for society. Advancement of the existing system observatory through the addition of small to moderate state-of-the-art capabilities designed to fill observational gaps will enable significant advances. Such a strategy requires urgent action: key instrumentation needs to be sustained, and action needs to be taken before core capabilities are lost in the aging ensemble. We recommend advances through priority focus (1) on observation-based modeling throughout the Sun-Earth system, (2) on forecasts more than 12 h ahead of the magnetic structure of incoming coronal mass ejections, (3) on understanding the geospace response to variable solar-wind stresses that lead to intense geomagnetically-induced currents and ionospheric and radiation storms, and (4

I Love My Sun: An Educational Space Weather Outreach Tool for Children and Senior People

Science.gov (United States)

Tulunay, Yurdanur; Tulunay, Ersin

2014-05-01

In the present day society, there is a vital need for setting up education and outreach activities in the Space Weather field for creating a healthy environment for the proper development of Space Weather markets along with the fundamental and applied research activities. It is important to educate children about the important role that the Sun has in their lives. This presentation gives an educational outreach tool entitled "I Love My Sun" that has been developed for school children in the approximate age group 7 through 11 years. Its main objective is to make children aware of space weather, the Sun, Sun-Earth relations and how they, the children, are part of this global picture. Children are given a lecture about the Sun; this is preceded and followed by the children drawing a picture of the Sun. The activity was initiated by Y. Tulunay in Ankara, Turkey as national project in the context of the 50th anniversary of Space Age and IHY activities. Since then it has been extended into a spatial (Europe) and temporal dimensions. A metric has been developed to facilitate an objective evaluation of the outcomes of the Events. In this presentation, the background behind the "I Love My Sun" initiative is given and it is described how to perform an "I Love My Sun" event. Impressions and main results from the case studies are given. As a new extension, preliminary examples are also given concerning senior people.

Space weather at Low Latitudes: Considerations to improve its forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Chau, J. L.; Goncharenko, L.; Valladares, C. E.; Milla, M. A.

2013-05-01

In this work we present a summary of space weather events that are unique to low-latitude regions. Special emphasis will be devoted to events that occur during so-called quiet (magnetically) conditions. One of these events is the occurrence of nighttime F-region irregularities, also known Equatorial Spread F (ESF). When such irregularities occur navigation and communications systems get disrupted or perturbed. After more than 70 years of studies, many features of ESF irregularities (climatology, physical mechanisms, longitudinal dependence, time dependence, etc.) are well known, but so far they cannot be forecast on time scales of minutes to hours. We present a summary of some of these features and some of the efforts being conducted to contribute to their forecasting. In addition to ESF, we have recently identified a clear connection between lower atmospheric forcing and the low latitude variability, particularly during the so-called sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. During SSW events and magnetically quiet conditions, we have observed changes in total electron content (TEC) that are comparable to changes that occur during strong magnetically disturbed conditions. We present results from recent events as well as outline potential efforts to forecast the ionospheric effects during these events.

Recent Progress of Solar Weather Forecasting at Naoc

Science.gov (United States)

He, Han; Wang, Huaning; Du, Zhanle; Zhang, Liyun; Huang, Xin; Yan, Yan; Fan, Yuliang; Zhu, Xiaoshuai; Guo, Xiaobo; Dai, Xinghua

The history of solar weather forecasting services at National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NAOC) can be traced back to 1960s. Nowadays, NAOC is the headquarters of the Regional Warning Center of China (RWC-China), which is one of the members of the International Space Environment Service (ISES). NAOC is responsible for exchanging data, information and space weather forecasts of RWC-China with other RWCs. The solar weather forecasting services at NAOC cover short-term prediction (within two or three days), medium-term prediction (within several weeks), and long-term prediction (in time scale of solar cycle) of solar activities. Most efforts of the short-term prediction research are concentrated on the solar eruptive phenomena, such as flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar proton events, which are the key driving sources of strong space weather disturbances. Based on the high quality observation data of the latest space-based and ground-based solar telescopes and with the help of artificial intelligence techniques, new numerical models with quantitative analyses and physical consideration are being developed for the predictions of solar eruptive events. The 3-D computer simulation technology is being introduced for the operational solar weather service platform to visualize the monitoring of solar activities, the running of the prediction models, as well as the presenting of the forecasting results. A new generation operational solar weather monitoring and forecasting system is expected to be constructed in the near future at NAOC.

A Space Weather mission concept: Observatories of the Solar Corona and Active Regions (OSCAR)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Strugarek, Antoine; Janitzek, Nils; Lee, Arrow

2015-01-01

advancements in the field of solar physics, improvements of the current CME prediction models, and provide data for reliable space weather forecasting. These objectives are achieved by utilising two spacecraft with identical instrumentation, located at a heliocentric orbital distance of 1 AU from the Sun......Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) are major sources of magnetic storms on Earth and are therefore considered to be the most dangerous space weather events. The Observatories of Solar Corona and Active Regions (OSCAR) mission is designed to identify the 3D...... structure of coronal loops and to study the trigger mechanisms of CMEs in solar Active Regions (ARs) as well as their evolution and propagation processes in the inner heliosphere. It also aims to provide monitoring and forecasting of geo-effective CMEs and CIRs. OSCAR would contribute to significant...

Space weather monitoring and forecasting in South America: products from the user requests to the development of regional magnetic indices and GNSS vertical error maps

Science.gov (United States)

Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Padilha, Antonio; Takahashi, Hisao; Souza, Jonas; Mendes, Odim; Batista, Inez S.; SantAnna, Nilson; Gatto, Rubens; Costa, D. Joaquim

On August 2007 the National Institute for Space Research started a task force to develop and operate a space weather program, which is kwon by the acronyms Embrace that stands for the Portuguese statement “Estudo e Monitoramento BRAasileiro de Clima Espacial” Program (Brazilian Space Weather Study and Monitoring program). The main purpose of the Embrace Program is to monitor the space climate and weather from sun, interplanetary space, magnetosphere and ionosphere-atmosphere, and to provide useful information to space related communities, technological, industrial and academic areas. Since then we have being visiting several different space weather costumers and we have host two workshops of Brazilian space weather users at the Embrace facilities. From the inputs and requests collected from the users the Embrace Program decided to monitored several physical parameters of the sun-earth environment through a large ground base network of scientific sensors and under collaboration with space weather centers partners. Most of these physical parameters are daily published on the Brazilian space weather program web portal, related to the entire network sensors available. A comprehensive data bank and an interface layer are under development to allow an easy and direct access to the useful information. Nowadays, the users will count on products derived from a GNSS monitor network that covers most of the South American territory; a digisonde network that monitors the ionospheric profiles in two equatorial sites and in one low latitude site; several solar radio telescopes to monitor solar activity, and a magnetometer network, besides a global ionospheric physical model. Regarding outreach, we publish a daily bulletin in Portuguese with the status of the space weather environment on the Sun, in the Interplanetary Medium and close to the Earth. Since December 2011, all these activities are carried out at the Embrace Headquarter, a building located at the INPE's main campus

Connecting the Pioneers, Current Leaders and the Nature and History of Space Weather with K-12 Classrooms and the General Public

Science.gov (United States)

Ng, C.; Thompson, B. J.; Cline, T.; Lewis, E.; Barbier, B.; Odenwald, S.; Spadaccini, J.; James, N.; Stephenson, B.; Davis, H. B.; Major, E. R.; Space Weather Living History

2011-12-01

The Space Weather Living History program will explore and share the breakthrough new science and captivating stories of space environments and space weather by interviewing space physics pioneers and leaders active from the International Geophysical Year (IGY) to the present. Our multi-mission project will capture, document and preserve the living history of space weather utilizing original historical materials (primary sources). The resulting products will allow us to tell the stories of those involved in interactive new media to address important STEM needs, inspire the next generation of explorers, and feature women as role models. The project is divided into several stages, and the first stage, which began in mid-2011, focuses on resource gathering. The goal is to capture not just anecdotes, but the careful analogies and insights of researchers and historians associated with the programs and events. The Space Weather Living History Program has a Scientific Advisory Board, and with the Board's input our team will determine the chronology, key researchers, events, missions and discoveries for interviews. Education activities will be designed to utilize autobiographies, newspapers, interviews, research reports, journal articles, conference proceedings, dissertations, websites, diaries, letters, and artworks. With the help of a multimedia firm, we will use some of these materials to develop an interactive timeline on the web, and as a downloadable application in a kiosk and on tablet computers. In summary, our project augments the existing historical records with education technologies, connect the pioneers, current leaders and the nature and history of space weather with K-12 classrooms and the general public, covering all areas of studies in Heliophysics. The project is supported by NASA award NNX11AJ61G.

Time-lagged effects of weather on plant demography: drought and Astragalus scaphoides.

Science.gov (United States)

Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Crone, Elizabeth E; Ramula, Satu; Tyre, Andrew J

2018-04-01

Temperature and precipitation determine the conditions where plant species can occur. Despite their significance, to date, surprisingly few demographic field studies have considered the effects of abiotic drivers. This is problematic because anticipating the effect of global climate change on plant population viability requires understanding how weather variables affect population dynamics. One possible reason for omitting the effect of weather variables in demographic studies is the difficulty in detecting tight associations between vital rates and environmental drivers. In this paper, we applied Functional Linear Models (FLMs) to long-term demographic data of the perennial wildflower, Astragalus scaphoides, and explored sensitivity of the results to reduced amounts of data. We compared models of the effect of average temperature, total precipitation, or an integrated measure of drought intensity (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI), on plant vital rates. We found that transitions to flowering and recruitment in year t were highest if winter/spring of year t was wet (positive effect of SPEI). Counterintuitively, if the preceding spring of year t - 1 was wet, flowering probabilities were decreased (negative effect of SPEI). Survival of vegetative plants from t - 1 to t was also negatively affected by wet weather in the spring of year t - 1 and, for large plants, even wet weather in the spring of t - 2 had a negative effect. We assessed the integrated effect of all vital rates on life history performance by fitting FLMs to the asymptotic growth rate, log(λt). Log(λt) was highest if dry conditions in year t - 1 were followed by wet conditions in the year t. Overall, the positive effects of wet years exceeded their negative effects, suggesting that increasing frequency of drought conditions would reduce population viability of A. scaphoides. The drought signal weakened when reducing the number of monitoring years. Substituting space for time

Statistical Analysis of Model Data for Operational Space Launch Weather Support at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

Science.gov (United States)

Bauman, William H., III

2010-01-01

The 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) is used by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to support space launch weather operations. The 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit to conduct an objective statistics-based analysis of MesoNAM output compared to wind tower mesonet observations and then develop a an operational tool to display the results. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction began running the current version of the MesoNAM in mid-August 2006. The period of record for the dataset was 1 September 2006 - 31 January 2010. The AMU evaluated MesoNAM hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours based on model initialization times of 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature and dew point were compared to the observed values of these parameters from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network. The data sets were stratified by model initialization time, month and onshore/offshore flow for each wind tower. Statistics computed included bias (mean difference), standard deviation of the bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and a hypothesis test for bias = O. Twelve wind towers located in close proximity to key launch complexes were used for the statistical analysis with the sensors on the towers positioned at varying heights to include 6 ft, 30 ft, 54 ft, 60 ft, 90 ft, 162 ft, 204 ft and 230 ft depending on the launch vehicle and associated weather launch commit criteria being evaluated. These twelve wind towers support activities for the Space Shuttle (launch and landing), Delta IV, Atlas V and Falcon 9 launch vehicles. For all twelve towers, the results indicate a diurnal signal in the bias of temperature (T) and weaker but discernable diurnal signal in the bias of dewpoint temperature (T(sub d)) in the MesoNAM forecasts. Also, the standard deviation of the bias and RMSE of T, T(sub d), wind speed and wind

Observatory data as a proxy of space weather parameters: The importance of historical archives

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Hejda, Pavel

2016-01-01

Roč. 20, Č. 2 (2016), s. 47-53 ISSN 0257-7968 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LM2010008 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : geomagnetic observatory * geomagnetic indices * sunspot members * space weather Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography OBOR OECD: Physical geography

Femtosecond laser irradiation of olivine single crystals: Experimental simulation of space weathering

Science.gov (United States)

Fazio, A.; Harries, D.; Matthäus, G.; Mutschke, H.; Nolte, S.; Langenhorst, F.

2018-01-01

Space weathering is one of the most common surface process occurring on atmosphere-free bodies such as asteroids and the Moon. It is caused mainly by solar wind irradiation and the impact of micrometeoroids. In order to simulate space weathering effects, in particular those produced by hypervelocity impacts, we produced microcraters via ultra-short (∼100 fs) laser irradiation of crystallographically oriented slices of forsterite-rich (Fo94.7) olivine. The main advantages of the application of a femtosecond laser radiation to reproduce the space weathering effects are (1) the high peak irradiance (1015 W cm-2), which generates the propagation of the shock wave at the nanosecond timescale (i.e., timescale of the micrometeoroid impacts); (2) the rapid transfer of energy to the target material, which avoids the interaction of laser light with the developing vapor plume; (3) a small laser beam, which allows the effects of a single impact to be simulated. The results of our spectroscopic and electron microscopic investigation validate this approach: the samples show strong darkening and reddening of the reflectance spectra and structural damages similar to the natural microcraters found on regolith grains of the Moon and asteroid 25143 Itokawa. Detailed investigations of several microcrater cross-sections by transmission electron microscopy allowed the detection of shock-induced defect microstructures. From the top to the bottom of the grain, the shock wave causes evaporation, melting, solid-state recrystallization, misorientation, fracturing, and the propagation of dislocations with Burgers vectors parallel to [001]. The formation of a short-lived vapor plume causes the kinetic fractionation of the gas and the preferential loss of lighter elements, mostly magnesium and oxygen. The high temperatures within the melt layer and the kinetic loss of oxygen promote the thermal reduction of iron and nickel, which leads to the formation of metallic nanoparticles (npFe0). The

Integrating Satellite, Radar and Surface Observation with Time and Space Matching

Science.gov (United States)

Ho, Y.; Weber, J.

2015-12-01

The Integrated Data Viewer (IDV) from Unidata is a Java™-based software framework for analyzing and visualizing geoscience data. It brings together the ability to display and work with satellite imagery, gridded data, surface observations, balloon soundings, NWS WSR-88D Level II and Level III RADAR data, and NOAA National Profiler Network data, all within a unified interface. Applying time and space matching on the satellite, radar and surface observation datasets will automatically synchronize the display from different data sources and spatially subset to match the display area in the view window. These features allow the IDV users to effectively integrate these observations and provide 3 dimensional views of the weather system to better understand the underlying dynamics and physics of weather phenomena.

Impact of space weather on human heart rate during the years 2011-2013

Science.gov (United States)

Galata, E.; Ioannidou, S.; Papailiou, M.; Mavromichalaki, H.; Paravolidakis, K.; Kouremeti, M.; Rentifis, L.; Simantirakis, E.; Trachanas, K.

2017-08-01

During the last years a possible link between different levels of solar and geomagnetic disturbances and human physiological parameters is suggested by several published studies. In this work the examination of the potential association between heart rate variations and specific space weather activities was performed. A total of 482 individuals treated at Hippocratio General Hospital in Athens, the Cardiology clinics of Nikaia General Hospital in Piraeus and the Heraklion University Hospital in Crete, Greece, were assessed from July 2011 to April 2013. The heart rate of the individuals was recorded by a Holter monitor on a n hourly basis, while the hourly variations of the cosmic ray intensity measured by the Neutron Monitor Station of the Athens University and of the geomagnetic index Dst provided by the Kyoto Observatory were used. The ANalysis Of VAriance (ANOVA) and the Multiple Linear Regression analysis were used for analysis of these data. A statistically significant effect of both cosmic rays and geomagnetic activity on heart rate was observed, which may indicate that changes in space weather could be linked to heart rate variations.

The role of MEXART in the National Space Weather Laboratory of Mexico: Detection of solar wind, CMEs, ionosphere, active regions and flares.

Science.gov (United States)

Mejia-Ambriz, J.; Gonzalez-Esparza, A.; De la Luz, V.; Villanueva-Hernandez, P.; Andrade, E.; Aguilar-Rodriguez, E.; Chang, O.; Romero Hernandez, E.; Sergeeva, M. A.; Perez Alanis, C. A.; Reyes-Marin, P. A.

2017-12-01

The National Space Weather Laboratory - Laboratorio Nacional de Clima Espacial (LANCE) - of Mexico has different ground based instruments to study and monitor the space weather. One of these instruments is the Mexican Array Radio Telescope (MEXART) which is principally dedicated to remote sensing the solar wind and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at 140 MHz, the instrument can detect solar wind densities and speeds from about 0.4 to 1 AU by modeling observations of interplanetary scintillation (IPS). MEXART is also able to detect ionospheric disturbances associated with transient space weather events by the analysis of ionospheric scintillation (IONS) . Additionally, MEXART has followed the Sun since the beginning of the current Solar Cycle 24 with records of 8 minutes per day, and occasionally, has partially detected the process of strong solar flares. Here we show the contributions of MEXART to the LANCE by reporting recent detections of CMEs by IPS, the arrive of transient events at Earth by IONS, the influence of active regions in the flux of the Sun at 140 MHz and the detection of a M6.5 class flare. Furthermore we report the status of a near real time analysis of IPS data for forecast purposes and the potential contribution to the Worldwide IPS Stations network (WIPSS), which is an effort to achieve a better coverage of the solar wind observations in the inner heliosphere.

A new open-source Python-based Space Weather data access, visualization, and analysis toolkit

Science.gov (United States)

de Larquier, S.; Ribeiro, A.; Frissell, N. A.; Spaleta, J.; Kunduri, B.; Thomas, E. G.; Ruohoniemi, J.; Baker, J. B.

2013-12-01

Space weather research relies heavily on combining and comparing data from multiple observational platforms. Current frameworks exist to aggregate some of the data sources, most based on file downloads via web or ftp interfaces. Empirical models are mostly fortran based and lack interfaces with more useful scripting languages. In an effort to improve data and model access, the SuperDARN community has been developing a Python-based Space Science Data Visualization Toolkit (DaViTpy). At the center of this development was a redesign of how our data (from 30 years of SuperDARN radars) was made available. Several access solutions are now wrapped into one convenient Python interface which probes local directories, a new remote NoSQL database, and an FTP server to retrieve the requested data based on availability. Motivated by the efficiency of this interface and the inherent need for data from multiple instruments, we implemented similar modules for other space science datasets (POES, OMNI, Kp, AE...), and also included fundamental empirical models with Python interfaces to enhance data analysis (IRI, HWM, MSIS...). All these modules and more are gathered in a single convenient toolkit, which is collaboratively developed and distributed using Github and continues to grow. While still in its early stages, we expect this toolkit will facilitate multi-instrument space weather research and improve scientific productivity.

Effects of weather and tailings properties on tailings drying times

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gantzer, C.; Fasking, T.; Costello, M.; Greenwood, J. [Barr Engineering, Calgary, AB (Canada)

2010-07-01

This PowerPoint presentation presented the results of a study conducted to determine the effects of weather and tailings properties on tailings drying times. Weather conditions have a significant impact the potential evaporation (PE) and actual evaporation (AE) of oil sands tailings. A 2-stage drying of slurry at a constant PE was conducted to determine the shrinkage limit of untreated mature fine tailings (MFT). An evaporation and seepage model was used to determine maximum first-stage drying rates. Measurements were also taken in a wind tunnel. Potential evaporation rates were calculated and evaporative water losses from the MFT were determined. Estimated drying times were presented. Results of the approach were compared with field measurements conducted in a previous study. Results of the study showed that evaporative water loss rates for May through August were limited by the properties of the tailings. Water loss rates were limited by weather for other months in the year-long study. tabs., figs.

A high-fidelity weather time series generator using the Markov Chain process on a piecewise level

Science.gov (United States)

Hersvik, K.; Endrerud, O.-E. V.

2017-12-01

A method is developed for generating a set of unique weather time-series based on an existing weather series. The method allows statistically valid weather variations to take place within repeated simulations of offshore operations. The numerous generated time series need to share the same statistical qualities as the original time series. Statistical qualities here refer mainly to the distribution of weather windows available for work, including durations and frequencies of such weather windows, and seasonal characteristics. The method is based on the Markov chain process. The core new development lies in how the Markov Process is used, specifically by joining small pieces of random length time series together rather than joining individual weather states, each from a single time step, which is a common solution found in the literature. This new Markov model shows favorable characteristics with respect to the requirements set forth and all aspects of the validation performed.

A Transmission Electron Microscope Investigation of Space Weathering Effects in Hayabusa Samples

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, Lindsay P.; Berger, Eve L.

2014-01-01

The Hayabusa mission to asteroid 25143 Itokawa successfully returned the first direct samples of the regolith from the surface of an asteroid. The Hayabusa samples thus present a special opportunity to directly investigate the evolution of asteroidal surfaces, from the development of the regolith to the study of the more complex effects of space weathering. Here we describe the mineralogy, microstructure and composition of three Hayabusa mission particles using transmission electron microscope (TEM) techniques

Problems at the Leading Edge of Space Weathering as Revealed by TEM Combined with Surface Science Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Christoffersen, R.; Dukes, C. A.; Keller, L. P.; Rahman, Z.; Baragiola, R. A.

2015-01-01

Both transmission electron micros-copy (TEM) and surface analysis techniques such as X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) were instrumen-tal in making the first characterizations of material generated by space weathering in lunar samples [1,2]. Without them, the nature of nanophase metallic Fe (npFe0) correlated with the surface of lunar regolith grains would have taken much longer to become rec-ognized and understood. Our groups at JSC and UVa have been using both techniques in a cross-correlated way to investigate how the solar wind contributes to space weathering [e.g., 3]. These efforts have identified a number of ongoing problems and knowledge gaps. Key insights made by UVa group leader Raul Barag-iola during this work are gratefully remembered.

Kameleon Live: An Interactive Cloud Based Analysis and Visualization Platform for Space Weather Researchers

Science.gov (United States)

Pembroke, A. D.; Colbert, J. A.

2015-12-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) provides hosting for many of the simulations used by the space weather community of scientists, educators, and forecasters. CCMC users may submit model runs through the Runs on Request system, which produces static visualizations of model output in the browser, while further analysis may be performed off-line via Kameleon, CCMC's cross-language access and interpolation library. Off-line analysis may be suitable for power-users, but storage and coding requirements present a barrier to entry for non-experts. Moreover, a lack of a consistent framework for analysis hinders reproducibility of scientific findings. To that end, we have developed Kameleon Live, a cloud based interactive analysis and visualization platform. Kameleon Live allows users to create scientific studies built around selected runs from the Runs on Request database, perform analysis on those runs, collaborate with other users, and disseminate their findings among the space weather community. In addition to showcasing these novel collaborative analysis features, we invite feedback from CCMC users as we seek to advance and improve on the new platform.

Capacity Building in Space Weather in the context of the ISWI program

Science.gov (United States)

Vilmer, Nicole; Amory, Christine

2012-07-01

In the context of the International Space Weather Initiative program, we organized a school on solar-terrestrial physics for French- speaking professors and PhD students from African countries. The school was organized in Rabat (Morocco) in December 2011. We shall present here the goals of the school, our program and our funding. We shall also comment on the feedback of the school and on the potential organization of a similar school in Algeria in 2013.

Space-time interdependence: evidence against asymmetric mapping between time and space.

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Zhenguang G; Connell, Louise

2015-03-01

Time and space are intimately related, but what is the real nature of this relationship? Is time mapped metaphorically onto space such that effects are always asymmetric (i.e., space affects time more than time affects space)? Or do the two domains share a common representational format and have the ability to influence each other in a flexible manner (i.e., time can sometimes affect space more than vice versa)? In three experiments, we examined whether spatial representations from haptic perception, a modality of relatively low spatial acuity, would lead the effect of time on space to be substantially stronger than the effect of space on time. Participants touched (but could not see) physical sticks while listening to an auditory note, and then reproduced either the length of the stick or the duration of the note. Judgements of length were affected by concurrent stimulus duration, but not vice versa. When participants were allowed to see as well as touch the sticks, however, the higher acuity of visuohaptic perception caused the effects to converge so length and duration influenced each other to a similar extent. These findings run counter to the spatial metaphor account of time, and rather support the spatial representation account in which time and space share a common representational format and the directionality of space-time interaction depends on the perceptual acuity of the modality used to perceive space. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Solar Radio Bursts and Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk,

2012-01-01

Radio bursts from the Sun are produced by electron accelerated to relativistic energies by physical processes on the Sun such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The radio bursts are thus good indicators of solar eruptions. Three types of nonthermal radio bursts are generally associated with CMEs. Type III bursts due to accelerated electrons propagating along open magnetic field lines. The electrons are thought to be accelerated at the reconnection region beneath the erupting CME, although there is another view that the electrons may be accelerated at the CME-driven shock. Type II bursts are due to electrons accelerated at the shock front. Type II bursts are also excellent indicators of solar energetic particle (SEP) events because the same shock is supposed accelerate electrons and ions. There is a hierarchical relationship between the wavelength range of type /I bursts and the CME kinetic energy. Finally, Type IV bursts are due to electrons trapped in moving or stationary structures. The low frequency stationary type IV bursts are observed occasionally in association with very fast CMEs. These bursts originate from flare loops behind the erupting CME and hence indicate tall loops. This paper presents a summary of radio bursts and their relation to CMEs and how they can be useful for space weather predictions.

The space-time model according to dimensional continuous space-time theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martini, Luiz Cesar

2014-01-01

This article results from the Dimensional Continuous Space-Time Theory for which the introductory theoretician was presented in [1]. A theoretical model of the Continuous Space-Time is presented. The wave equation of time into absolutely stationary empty space referential will be described in detail. The complex time, that is the time fixed on the infinite phase time speed referential, is deduced from the New View of Relativity Theory that is being submitted simultaneously with this article in this congress. Finally considering the inseparable Space-Time is presented the duality equation wave-particle.

Time series regression model for infectious disease and weather.

Science.gov (United States)

Imai, Chisato; Armstrong, Ben; Chalabi, Zaid; Mangtani, Punam; Hashizume, Masahiro

2015-10-01

Time series regression has been developed and long used to evaluate the short-term associations of air pollution and weather with mortality or morbidity of non-infectious diseases. The application of the regression approaches from this tradition to infectious diseases, however, is less well explored and raises some new issues. We discuss and present potential solutions for five issues often arising in such analyses: changes in immune population, strong autocorrelations, a wide range of plausible lag structures and association patterns, seasonality adjustments, and large overdispersion. The potential approaches are illustrated with datasets of cholera cases and rainfall from Bangladesh and influenza and temperature in Tokyo. Though this article focuses on the application of the traditional time series regression to infectious diseases and weather factors, we also briefly introduce alternative approaches, including mathematical modeling, wavelet analysis, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Modifications proposed to standard time series regression practice include using sums of past cases as proxies for the immune population, and using the logarithm of lagged disease counts to control autocorrelation due to true contagion, both of which are motivated from "susceptible-infectious-recovered" (SIR) models. The complexity of lag structures and association patterns can often be informed by biological mechanisms and explored by using distributed lag non-linear models. For overdispersed models, alternative distribution models such as quasi-Poisson and negative binomial should be considered. Time series regression can be used to investigate dependence of infectious diseases on weather, but may need modifying to allow for features specific to this context. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

NOAA's Strategy to Improve Operational Weather Prediction Outlooks at Subseasonal Time Range

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, T.; Toepfer, F.; Stajner, I.; DeWitt, D.

2017-12-01

NOAA is planning to extend operational global numerical weather prediction to sub-seasonal time range under the auspices of its Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) and Extended Range Outlook Programs. A unification of numerical prediction capabilities for weather and subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales is underway at NOAA using the Finite Volume Cubed Sphere (FV3) dynamical core as the basis for the emerging unified system. This presentation will overview NOAA's strategic planning and current activities to improve prediction at S2S time-scales that are ongoing in response to the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, Section 201. Over the short-term, NOAA seeks to improve the operational capability through improvements to its ensemble forecast system to extend its range to 30 days using the new FV3 Global Forecast System model, and by using this system to provide reforecast and re-analyses. In parallel, work is ongoing to improve NOAA's operational product suite for 30 day outlooks for temperature, precipitation and extreme weather phenomena.

The Space Physics of Life: Searching for Biosignatures on Habitable Icy Worlds Affected by Space Weathering

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, John F.

2006-01-01

Accessible surfaces of the most likely astrobiological habitats (Mars, Europa, Titan) in the solar system beyond Earth are exposed to various chemical and hydrologic weathering processes directly or indirectly induced by interaction with the overlying space environment. These processes can be both beneficial, through provision of chemical compounds and energy, and destructive, through chemical dissociation or burial, to detectable presence of biosignatures. Orbital, suborbital, and surface platforms carrying astrobiological instrumentation must survive, and preferably exploit, space environment interactions to reach these habitats and search for evidence of life or its precursors. Experience from Mars suggests that any detection of biosignatures must be accompanied by characterization of the local chemical environment and energy sources including irradiation by solar ultraviolet photons and energetic particles from the space environment. Orbital and suborbital surveys of surface chemistry and astrobiological potential in the context of the space environment should precede targeted in-situ measurements to maximize probability of biosignature detection through site selection. The Space Physics of Life (SPOL) investigation has recently been proposed to the NASA Astrobiology Institute and is briefly described in this presentation. SPOL is the astrobiologically relevant study of the interactions and relationships of potentially? or previously inhabited, bodies of the solar system with the surrounding environments. This requires an interdisciplinary effort in space physics, planetary science, and radiation biology. The proposed investigation addresses the search for habitable environments, chemical resources to support life, and techniques for detection of organic and inorganic signs of life in the context of the space environment.

What can the annual 10Be solar activity reconstructions tell us about historic space weather?

Science.gov (United States)

Barnard, Luke; McCracken, Ken G.; Owens, Mat J.; Lockwood, Mike

2018-04-01

Context: Cosmogenic isotopes provide useful estimates of past solar magnetic activity, constraining past space climate with reasonable uncertainty. Much less is known about past space weather conditions. Recent advances in the analysis of 10Be by McCracken & Beer (2015, Sol Phys 290: 305-3069) (MB15) suggest that annually resolved 10Be can be significantly affected by solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes. This poses a problem, and presents an opportunity, as the accurate quantification of past solar magnetic activity requires the SEP effects to be determined and isolated, whilst doing so might provide a valuable record of past SEP fluxes. Aims: We compare the MB15 reconstruction of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF), with two independent estimates of the HMF derived from sunspot records and geomagnetic variability. We aim to quantify the differences between the HMF reconstructions, and speculate on the origin of these differences. We test whether the differences between the reconstructions appear to depend on known significant space weather events. Methods: We analyse the distributions of the differences between the HMF reconstructions. We consider how the differences vary as a function of solar cycle phase, and, using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, we compare the distributions under the two conditions of whether or not large space weather events were known to have occurred. Results: We find that the MB15 reconstructions are generally marginally smaller in magnitude than the sunspot and geomagnetic HMF reconstructions. This bias varies as a function of solar cycle phase, and is largest in the declining phase of the solar cycle. We find that MB15's excision of the years with very large ground level enhancement (GLE) improves the agreement of the 10Be HMF estimate with the sunspot and geomagnetic reconstructions. We find no statistical evidence that GLEs, in general, affect the MB15 reconstruction, but this analysis is limited by having too few samples. We do find

Observations of Heliospheric Faraday Rotation (FR) and Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) with the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR): Steps Towards Improving Space-Weather Forecasting Capabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Bisi, M. M.; Fallows, R. A.; Sobey, C.; Eftekhari, T.; Jensen, E. A.; Jackson, B. V.; Yu, H. S.; Hick, P. P.; Odstrcil, D.; Tokumaru, M.

2015-12-01

The phenomenon of space weather - analogous to terrestrial weather which describes the changing pressure, temperature, wind, and humidity conditions on Earth - is essentially a description of the changes in velocity, density, magnetic field, high-energy particles, and radiation in the near-Earth space environment including the effects of such changes on the Earth's magnetosphere, radiation belts, ionosphere, and thermosphere. Space weather can be considered to have two main strands: (i) scientific research, and (ii) applications. The former is self-explanatory, but the latter covers operational aspects which includes its forecasting. Understanding and forecasting space weather in the near-Earth environment is vitally important to protecting our modern-day reliance (militarily and commercially) on satellites, global-communication and navigation networks, high-altitude air travel (radiation concerns particularly on polar routes), long-distance power/oil/gas lines and piping, and for any future human exploration of space to list but a few. Two ground-based radio-observing remote-sensing techniques that can aid our understanding and forecasting of heliospheric space weather are those of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and heliospheric Faraday rotation (FR). The LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR) is a next-generation 'software' radio telescope centered in The Netherlands with international stations spread across central and northwest Europe. For several years, scientific observations of IPS on LOFAR have been undertaken on a campaign basis and the experiment is now well developed. More recently, LOFAR has been used to attempt scientific heliospheric FR observations aimed at remotely sensing the magnetic field of the plasma traversing the inner heliosphere. We present our latest progress using these two radio heliospheric-imaging remote-sensing techniques including the use of three-dimensional (3-D) modeling and reconstruction techniques using other, additional data as input

DEVELOPMENT OF THE PROBABLY-GEOGRAPHICAL FORECAST METHOD FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER PHENOMENA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena S. Popova

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a scheme method of probably-geographical forecast for dangerous weather phenomena. Discuss two general realization stages of this method. Emphasize that developing method is response to actual questions of modern weather forecast and it’s appropriate phenomena: forecast is carried out for specific point in space and appropriate moment of time.

Real-Time Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station High-Resolution Model Implementation and Verification

Science.gov (United States)

Shafer, Jaclyn A.; Watson, Leela R.

2015-01-01

Customer: NASA's Launch Services Program (LSP), Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO), and Space Launch System (SLS) programs. NASA's LSP, GSDO, SLS and other programs at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) use the daily and weekly weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) as decision tools for their day-to-day and launch operations on the Eastern Range (ER). For example, to determine if they need to limit activities such as vehicle transport to the launch pad, protect people, structures or exposed launch vehicles given a threat of severe weather, or reschedule other critical operations. The 45 WS uses numerical weather prediction models as a guide for these weather forecasts, particularly the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) 1.67 kilometer Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Considering the 45 WS forecasters' and Launch Weather Officers' (LWO) extensive use of the AFWA model, the 45 WS proposed a task at the September 2013 Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Tasking Meeting requesting the AMU verify this model. Due to the lack of archived model data available from AFWA, verification is not yet possible. Instead, the AMU proposed to implement and verify the performance of an ER version of the AMU high-resolution WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS) model (Watson 2013) in real-time. The tasking group agreed to this proposal; therefore the AMU implemented the WRF-EMS model on the second of two NASA AMU modeling clusters. The model was set up with a triple-nested grid configuration over KSC/CCAFS based on previous AMU work (Watson 2013). The outer domain (D01) has 12-kilometer grid spacing, the middle domain (D02) has 4-kilometer grid spacing, and the inner domain (D03) has 1.33-kilometer grid spacing. The model runs a 12-hour forecast every hour, D01 and D02 domain outputs are available once an hour and D03 is every 15 minutes during the forecast period. The AMU assessed the WRF-EMS 1

Modelling the perception of weather conditions by users of outdoor public spaces

Science.gov (United States)

Andrade, H.; Oliveira, S.; Alcoforado, M.-J.

2009-09-01

Outdoor public spaces play an important role for the quality of life in urban areas. Their usage depends, among other factors, on the bioclimatic comfort of the users. Climate change can modify the uses of outdoor spaces, by changing temperature and rainfall patterns. Understanding the way people perceive the microclimatic conditions is an important tool to the design of more comfortable outdoor spaces and in anticipating future needs to cope with climate change impacts. The perception of bioclimatic comfort by users of two different outdoor spaces was studied in Lisbon. A survey of about one thousand inquires was carried out simultaneously with weather measurements (air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and solar and long wave radiation), during the years 2006 and 2007. The aim was to assess the relationships between weather variables, the individual characteristics of people (such as age and gender, among others) and their bioclimatic comfort. The perception of comfort was evaluated through the preference votes of the interviewees, which consisted on their answers concerning the desire to decrease, maintain or increase the values of the different weather parameters, in order to improve their comfort at the moment of the interview. The perception of the atmospheric conditions and of the bioclimatic comfort are highly influenced by subjective factors, which are difficult to integrate in a model. Nonetheless, the use of the multiple logistic regression allows the definition of patterns in the quantitative relation between preference votes and environmental and personal parameters. The thermal preference depends largely on the season and is associated with wind speed. Comfort in relation to wind depends not only on the speed but also on turbulence: a high variability in wind speed is generally perceived as uncomfortable. It was also found that the acceptability of warmer conditions is higher than for cooler conditions and the majority of people declared

Weather Information Processing

Science.gov (United States)

1991-01-01

Science Communications International (SCI), formerly General Science Corporation, has developed several commercial products based upon experience acquired as a NASA Contractor. Among them are METPRO, a meteorological data acquisition and processing system, which has been widely used, RISKPRO, an environmental assessment system, and MAPPRO, a geographic information system. METPRO software is used to collect weather data from satellites, ground-based observation systems and radio weather broadcasts to generate weather maps, enabling potential disaster areas to receive advance warning. GSC's initial work for NASA Goddard Space Flight Center resulted in METPAK, a weather satellite data analysis system. METPAK led to the commercial METPRO system. The company also provides data to other government agencies, U.S. embassies and foreign countries.

KSC Weather and Research

Science.gov (United States)

Maier, Launa; Huddleston, Lisa; Smith, Kristin

2016-01-01

This briefing outlines the history of Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Weather organization, past research sponsored or performed, current organization, responsibilities, and activities, the evolution of weather support, future technologies, and an update on the status of the buoys located offshore of Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and KSC.

Nurturing Soft Skills Among High School Students Through Space Weather Competition

Science.gov (United States)

Abdullah, Mardina; Abd Majid, Rosadah; Bais, Badariah; Syaidah Bahri, Nor

2016-07-01

Soft skills fulfill an important role in shaping an individual's personality. It is of high importance for every student to acquire adequate skills beyond academic or technical knowledge. The objective of this project was to foster students' enthusiasm in space science and develop their soft skills such as; interpersonal communication, critical thinking and problem-solving, team work, lifelong learning and information management, and leadership skills. This is a qualitative study and the data was collected via group interviews. Soft skills development among high school students were nurtured through space weather competition in solar flare detection. High school students (16 to 17 years old) were guided by mentors consisting of science teachers to carry out this project based on a module developed by UKM's researchers. Students had to acquire knowledge on antenna development and construct the antenna with recyclable materials. They had to capture graphs and identify peaks that indicate solar flare. Their findings were compared to satellite data for verification. They also presented their work and their findings to the panel of judges. After observation, it can be seen that students' soft skills and interest in learning space science had become more positive after being involved in this project.

The origin of SEP events: New research collaboration and network on space weather

Science.gov (United States)

Miteva, Rositsa; Kashapova, Larisa; Myagkova, Irina; Meshalkina, Nataliia; Petrov, Nikola; Bogomolov, Andrey; Myshyakov, Ivan; Tsvetkov, Tsvetan; Danov, Dimitar; Zdanov, Dmitriy

2017-11-01

A new project on the solar energetic particles (SEPs) and their solar origins (flares and coronal mass ejections) is described here. The main aim of this project is to answer the question - whether the SEPs observed in situ are driven by flares, by CMEs or both accelerators contribute to an extent which varies from event to event - by deducing a quantitative measure of the flare vs. CME contribution, duration and efficiency. New observations (SONG/Koronas-F, Relec/Vernov) and new approaches of analysis will be utilized (e.g., magnetic topology of active regions using 3D extrapolation techniques of detailed case studies together with statistical analysis of the phenomena). In addition, the identification of the uncertainty limits of SEP injection, onset time and testing the validity of assumptions often taken for granted (association procedures, solar activity longitudinal effects, correlation analysis, etc.) are planned. The project outcomes have the capacity to contribute to other research fields for improvement of modeling schemes and forecasting methods of space weather events.

Global, real-time ionosphere specification for end-user communication and navigation products

Science.gov (United States)

Tobiska, W.; Carlson, H. C.; Schunk, R. W.; Thompson, D. C.; Sojka, J. J.; Scherliess, L.; Zhu, L.; Gardner, L. C.

2010-12-01

Space weather’s effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun’s photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere is the key region that affects communication and navigation systems. The Utah State University (USU) Space Weather Center (SWC) is a developer and producer of commercial space weather applications. A key system-level component for providing timely information about the effects of space weather is the Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system. GAIM, operated by SWC, improves real-time communication and navigation systems by continuously ingesting up to 10,000 slant TEC measurements every 15-minutes from approximately 500 stations. Using a Kalman filter, the background output from the physics-based Ionosphere Forecast Model (IFM) is adjusted to more accurately represent the actual ionosphere. An improved ionosphere leads to more useful derivative products. For example, SWC runs operational code, using GAIM, to calculate and report the global radio high frequency (HF) signal strengths for 24 world cities. This product is updated every 15 minutes at http://spaceweather.usu.edu and used by amateur radio operators. SWC also developed and provides through Apple iTunes the widely used real-time space weather iPhone app called SpaceWx for public space weather education. SpaceWx displays the real-time solar, heliosphere, magnetosphere, thermosphere, and ionosphere drivers to changes in the total electron content, for example. This smart phone app is tip of the “iceberg” of automated systems that provide space weather data; it permits instant understanding of the environment surrounding Earth as it dynamically changes. SpaceWx depends upon a distributed network that connects satellite and ground-based data streams with algorithms to quickly process the measurements into geophysical data, incorporate those

A Small Mission Concept to the Sun-Earth Lagrangian L5 Point for Innovative Solar, Heliospheric and Space Weather Science

Science.gov (United States)

Lavraud, B.; Liu, Y.; Segura, K.; He, J.; Qin, G.; Temmer, M.; Vial, J.-C.; Xiong, M.; Davies, J. A.; Rouillard, A. P.;

Testing Realistic Disaster Scenarios for Space Weather: The Economic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure in the UK

Science.gov (United States)

Gibbs, M.; Oughton, E. J.; Hapgood, M. A.

2017-12-01

The socio-economic impacts of space weather have been under-researched, despite this threat featuring on the UK's National Risk Register. In this paper, a range of Realistic Disaster Scenarios due to failure in electricity transmission infrastructure are tested. We use regional Geomagnetically Induced Current (GIC) studies to identify areas in the UK high-voltage power system deemed to be high-risk. The potential level of disruption arising from a large geomagnetic disturbance in these `hot spots' on local economic activity is explored. Electricity is a necessary factor of production without which businesses cannot operate, so even short term power loss can cause significant loss of value. We utilise a spatially disaggregated approach that focuses on quantifying employment disruption by industrial sector, and relating this to direct Gross Value Added loss. We then aggregate this direct loss into a set of shocks to undertake macroeconomic modelling of different scenarios, to obtain the total economic impact which includes both direct and indirect supply chain disruption effects. These results are reported for a range of temporal periods, with the minimum increment being a one-hour blackout. This work furthers our understanding of the economic impacts of space weather, and can inform future reviews of the UK's National Risk Register. The key contribution of the paper is that the results can be used in the future cost-benefit analysis of investment in space weather forecasting.

Effect of Weathering Time on the Physical - Mechanical Properties and Color Change in Wood Flour/HDPE Composite

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Behzad Kord

2014-05-01

Full Text Available This study was carried out to investigate the effect of weathering time on the physical and mechanical properties and color change in composite made of wood flour and high density polyethylene (HDPE. For this purpose, wood flour and polyethylene at a weight ratio of 60:40 with coupling agent were compounded in an internal mixer, and the samples were made in injection molding. Then, the weathering process by ultraviolet irradiation and water spray was done on the samples at different times of 250, 500, 1000 and 2000 hours in accelerated weathering apparatus. Finally, the physical and mechanical properties and color measurement of samples were tested, and compared with control samples. Results indicated that the flexural strength, flexural modulus, tensile strength and tensile modulus decreased with an increase in weathering time; however, the water absorption increased. Also, the yellowness of wood plastic samples decreased with an increase in weathering time and due to the lightness and color change increased.

Extremely Severe Space Weather and Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Regions with Locally Heterogeneous Ground Resistivity

Science.gov (United States)

Fujita, Shigeru; Kataoka, Ryuho; Pulkkinen, Antti; Watari, Shinichi

2016-01-01

Large geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) triggered by extreme space weather events are now regarded as one of the serious natural threats to the modern electrified society. The risk is described in detail in High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk, A Jointly-Commissioned Summary Report of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation and the US Department of Energy's November 2009 Workshop, June 2010. For example, the March 13-14,1989 storm caused a large-scale blackout affecting about 6 million people in Quebec, Canada, and resulting in substantial economic losses in Canada and the USA (Bolduc 2002). Therefore, European and North American nations have invested in GIC research such as the Solar Shield project in the USA (Pulkkinen et al. 2009, 2015a). In 2015, the Japanese government (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, METI) acknowledged the importance of GIC research in Japan. After reviewing the serious damages caused by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, METI recognized the potential risk to the electric power grid posed by extreme space weather. During extreme events, GICs can be concerning even in mid- and low-latitude countries and have become a global issue.

Space weather at planet Venus during the forthcoming BepiColombo flybys

Science.gov (United States)

McKenna-Lawlor, S.; Jackson, B.; Odstrcil, D.

2018-03-01

The BepiColombo (BC) Mission which will be launched in 2018, will include during its Cruise Phase two flybys of Venus and five Mercury flybys. It will then enter a one Earth year orbit about Mercury (with a possible one-year extension) during which two spacecraft, one provided by ESA (MPO) and one provided by JAXA (MMO), will perform both autonomous and coordinated observations of the Hermean environment at various separations. The measurements will take place during the minimum of solar cycle 24 and the rise of solar cycle 25. At the start of the minimum of solar cycle 23, four major flares, each associated with the production of MeV particle radiation and CME activity occurred. Predictions of the HAFv.2 model of the arrival of particle radiation and a travelling shock at Venus on 6 December 2006 were verified by in-situ measurements made aboard Venus Express (VEX) by the ASPERA 4 instrument. Interplanetary scintillation observations, as well as the ENLIL 3-D MHD model when employed separately or in combination, enable the making of predictions of the solar wind density and speed at various locations in the inner heliosphere. Both methods, which outdate HAFv.2, are utilized in the present paper to predict (retrospectively) the arrival of the flare related, interplanetary propagating shock recorded at Venus on 6 December 2006 aboard VEX with a view to putting in place the facility to make very reliable space weather predictions for BC during both its Cruise Phase and when in the Hermean environment itself. The successful matching of the December 2006 predictions with in-situ signatures recorded aboard Venus Express provide confidence that the predictive methodology to be adopted will be appropriate to provide space weather predictions for BepiColombo during its Venus flybys and throughout the mission.

Carrington-L5: The UK/US Space Weather Operational Mission.

Science.gov (United States)

Bisi, M. M.; Trichas, M.

2015-12-01

Airbus Defence and Space (UK) have carried out a study for an operational L5 space weather mission, in collaboration with RAL, the UK Met Office, UCL and Imperial College London. The study looked at the user requirements for an operational mission, a model instrument payload, and a mission/spacecraft concept. A particular focus is cost effectiveness and timelineness of the data, suitable for operational forecasting needs. The study focussed on a mission at L5 assuming that a US mission to L1 will already occur, on the basis that L5 offers the greatest benefit for SWE predictions. The baseline payload has been selected to address all MOSWOC/SWPC priorities using UK/US instruments, consisting of: a heliospheric imager, coronagraph, EUV imager, magnetograph, magnetometer, solar wind analyser and radiation monitor. The platform is based on extensive re-use from Airbus' past missions to minimize the cost and a Falcon-9 launcher has been selected on the same basis. A schedule analysis shows that the earliest launch could occur in 2020, assuming Phase A KO in 2015. The study team have selected the name "Carrington" for the mission, reflecting the UK's proud history in this domain.

Ionospheric TEC Weather Map Over South America

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, H.; Wrasse, C. M.; Denardini, C. M.; Pádua, M. B.; de Paula, E. R.; Costa, S. M. A.; Otsuka, Y.; Shiokawa, K.; Monico, J. F. Galera; Ivo, A.; Sant'Anna, N.

2016-11-01

Ionospheric weather maps using the total electron content (TEC) monitored by ground-based Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) receivers over South American continent, TECMAP, have been operationally produced by Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais's Space Weather Study and Monitoring Program (Estudo e Monitoramento Brasileiro de Clima Especial) since 2013. In order to cover the whole continent, four GNSS receiver networks, (Rede Brasileiro de Monitoramento Contínuo) RBMC/Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics, Low-latitude Ionospheric Sensor Network, International GNSS Service, and Red Argentina de Monitoreo Satelital Continuo, in total 140 sites, have been used. TECMAPs with a time resolution of 10 min are produced in 12 h time delay. Spatial resolution of the map is rather low, varying between 50 and 500 km depending on the density of the observation points. Large day-to-day variabilities of the equatorial ionization anomaly have been observed. Spatial gradient of TEC from the anomaly trough (total electron content unit, 1 TECU = 1016 el m-2 (TECU) 80) causes a large ionospheric range delay in the GNSS positioning system. Ionospheric plasma bubbles, their seeding and development, could be monitored. This plasma density (spatial and temporal) variability causes not only the GNSS-based positioning error but also radio wave scintillations. Monitoring of these phenomena by TEC mapping becomes an important issue for space weather concern for high-technology positioning system and telecommunication.

An Investigation of Interplanetary Structures for Solar Cycles 23 and 24 and their Space Weather Consequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Sultan, M. S.; Jules, A.; Marchese, P.; Damas, M. C.

2017-12-01

It is crucial to study space weather because severe interplanetary conditions can cause geomagnetic storms that may damage both space- and ground-based technological systems such as satellites, communication systems, and power grids. Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) are the primary drivers of geomagnetic storms. As they travel through interplanetary space and reach geospace, their spatial structures change which can result in various geomagnetic effects. Therefore, studying these drivers and their structures is essential in order to better understand and mitigate their impact on technological systems, as well as to forecast geomagnetic storms. In this study, over 150 storms were cross-checked for both solar cycles (SC) 23 and 24. This data has revealed the most common interplanetary structures, i.e., sheath (Sh); magnetic cloud following a shock front (sMC); sheath region and magnetic cloud (Sh/MC); and corotating interaction regions (CIRs). Furthermore, plasma parameters as well as variation in the intensity and duration of storms resulting from different interplanetary structures are studied for their effect on geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), as well as for their effect on power grids. Although preliminary results for SC 23 indicate that storm intensity may play a dominant role for GICs, duration might also be a factor, albeit smaller. Results from both SC 23 and 24 are analyzed and compared, and should lead to an enhanced understanding of space weather consequences of interplanetary structures and their possible forecasting.

Probabilistic Space Weather Forecasting: a Bayesian Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Camporeale, E.; Chandorkar, M.; Borovsky, J.; Care', A.

2017-12-01

Most of the Space Weather forecasts, both at operational and research level, are not probabilistic in nature. Unfortunately, a prediction that does not provide a confidence level is not very useful in a decision-making scenario. Nowadays, forecast models range from purely data-driven, machine learning algorithms, to physics-based approximation of first-principle equations (and everything that sits in between). Uncertainties pervade all such models, at every level: from the raw data to finite-precision implementation of numerical methods. The most rigorous way of quantifying the propagation of uncertainties is by embracing a Bayesian probabilistic approach. One of the simplest and most robust machine learning technique in the Bayesian framework is Gaussian Process regression and classification. Here, we present the application of Gaussian Processes to the problems of the DST geomagnetic index forecast, the solar wind type classification, and the estimation of diffusion parameters in radiation belt modeling. In each of these very diverse problems, the GP approach rigorously provide forecasts in the form of predictive distributions. In turn, these distributions can be used as input for ensemble simulations in order to quantify the amplification of uncertainties. We show that we have achieved excellent results in all of the standard metrics to evaluate our models, with very modest computational cost.

Assessment of the Space Weather Effect on Human Health in the Arctic Zone Using the Example of Tiksi Settlement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alena A. Strekalovskaya

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In order to assess the space weather effect on the well-being and health of people with cardiovascular pathology in Arctic conditions, we carried out the processing and analysis of space weather parameters and the electronic database of patients with cardiovascular diseases at the Central District Hospital in Tiksi settlement (the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia (RS(Y. Patients visited the polyclinic or requested an ambulance because their health had deteriorated. As a result of our research, we found some conjunctions of trends in the change in geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-index and the number of patients' visits to medical institutions for arterial hypertension (AH in 2015, 2016 and 2017. It can therefore be concluded that geomagnetic disturbances have an impact on the cardiovascular system of a person living at high latitudes.

The science of space-time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raine, D.J.; Heller, M.

1981-01-01

Analyzing the development of the structure of space-time from the theory of Aristotle to the present day, the present work attempts to sketch a science of relativistic mechanics. The concept of relativity is discussed in relation to the way in which space-time splits up into space and time, and in relation to Mach's principle concerning the relativity of inertia. Particular attention is given to the following topics: Aristotelian dynamics Copernican kinematics Newtonian dynamics the space-time of classical dynamics classical space-time in the presence of gravity the space-time of special relativity the space-time of general relativity solutions and problems in general relativity Mach's principle and the dynamics of space-time theories of inertial mass the integral formation of general relativity and the frontiers of relativity

Space Environment Modelling with the Use of Artificial Intelligence Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Lundstedt, H.; Wintoft, P.; Wu, J.-G.; Gleisner, H.; Dovheden, V.

1996-12-01

Space based technological systems are affected by the space weather in many ways. Several severe failures of satellites have been reported at times of space storms. Our society also increasingly depends on satellites for communication, navigation, exploration, and research. Predictions of the conditions in the satellite environment have therefore become very important. We will here present predictions made with the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, such as artificial neural networks (ANN) and hybrids of AT methods. We are developing a space weather model based on intelligence hybrid systems (IHS). The model consists of different forecast modules, each module predicts the space weather on a specific time-scale. The time-scales range from minutes to months with the fundamental time-scale of 1-5 minutes, 1-3 hours, 1-3 days, and 27 days. Solar and solar wind data are used as input data. From solar magnetic field measurements, either made on the ground at Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) at Stanford, or made from space by the satellite SOHO, solar wind parameters can be predicted and modelled with ANN and MHD models. Magnetograms from WSO are available on a daily basis. However, from SOHO magnetograms will be available every 90 minutes. SOHO magnetograms as input to ANNs will therefore make it possible to even predict solar transient events. Geomagnetic storm activity can today be predicted with very high accuracy by means of ANN methods using solar wind input data. However, at present real-time solar wind data are only available during part of the day from the satellite WIND. With the launch of ACE in 1997, solar wind data will on the other hand be available during 24 hours per day. The conditions of the satellite environment are not only disturbed at times of geomagnetic storms but also at times of intense solar radiation and highly energetic particles. These events are associated with increased solar activity. Predictions of these events are therefore

Space Weather Activities of IONOLAB Group: IONOLAB-TEC

Science.gov (United States)

Arikan, F.; Sezen, U.; Arikan, O.; Ugurlu, O.; Nayir, H.

2009-04-01

Space Weather (SW) is the concept of changing environmental conditions in outer space and affect Earth and its technological systems. SW is a consequence of the solar activities and the coupling of solar energy on Earth's atmosphere due to the Earth's magnetic field. The monitoring and prediction of SW has utmost importance for HF communication, Satellite communication, navigation and guidance systems, Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite systems, Space Craft exit and entry into the atmosphere. Ionosphere is the plasma layer of the atmosphere that is ionized by solar radiation and it is a key player of SW. Ionosphere is a temporally and spatially varying, dispersive, anisotropic and inhomogeneous medium that is characterized primarily by its electron density distribution. IONOLAB is a group of researchers of various disciplines, getting together to handle challenges of the Earth's ionosphere. The team has researchers from Hacettepe University and Bilkent University, Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering and General Command of Mapping of Turkish Army. One of the most important contributions of IONOLAB group is the automated web-based computation service for Total Electron Content (TEC). TEC corresponds to the line integral of electron density distribution on a given path. TEC can also be expressed as the amount of free electrons within 1 m2 cross-sectional area of the cylinder on the ray path. Global Position System (GPS) provides a cost-effective medium for monitoring of ionosphere using the signals recorded by stationary GPS receivers in estimating TEC. IONOLAB group has developed IONOLAB-TEC for reliable and robust estimates for all latitudes and both calm and disturbed days by using RINEX, IONEX and satellite ephemeris data provided from the IGS centers. IONOLAB-TEC consists of a regularized signal estimation algorithm which combines signals from all GPS satellites for a given instant and a given receiver, for a desired time period or for 24 hours

Anomalous effects of radioactive decay rates and capacitance values measured inside a modified Faraday cage: Correlations with space weather

Science.gov (United States)

Scholkmann, F.; Milián-Sánchez, V.; Mocholí-Salcedo, A.; Milián, C.; Kolombet, V. A.; Verdú, G.

2017-03-01

Recently we reported (Milián-Sánchez V. et al., Nucl. Instrum. Methods A, 828 (2016) 210) our experimental results involving 226Ra decay rate and capacitance measurements inside a modified Faraday cage. Our measurements exhibited anomalous effects of unknown origin. In this letter we report new results regarding our investigation into the origins of the observed effects. We report preliminary findings of a correlation analysis between the radioactive decay rates and capacitance time series and space weather related variables (geomagnetic field disturbances and cosmic-ray neutron counts). A significant correlation was observed for specific data sets. The results are presented and possible implications for future work discussed.

Time-Space Topology Optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jakob Søndergaard

2008-01-01

A method for space-time topology optimization is outlined. The space-time optimization strategy produces structures with optimized material distributions that vary in space and in time. The method is demonstrated for one-dimensional wave propagation in an elastic bar that has a time-dependent Young......’s modulus and is subjected to a transient load. In the example an optimized dynamic structure is demonstrated that compresses a propagating Gauss pulse....

All-sky-imaging capabilities for ionospheric space weather research using geomagnetic conjugate point observing sites

Science.gov (United States)

Martinis, C.; Baumgardner, J.; Wroten, J.; Mendillo, M.

2018-04-01

Optical signatures of ionospheric disturbances exist at all latitudes on Earth-the most well known case being visible aurora at high latitudes. Sub-visual emissions occur equatorward of the auroral zones that also indicate periods and locations of severe Space Weather effects. These fall into three magnetic latitude domains in each hemisphere: (1) sub-auroral latitudes ∼40-60°, (2) mid-latitudes (20-40°) and (3) equatorial-to-low latitudes (0-20°). Boston University has established a network of all-sky-imagers (ASIs) with sites at opposite ends of the same geomagnetic field lines in each hemisphere-called geomagnetic conjugate points. Our ASIs are autonomous instruments that operate in mini-observatories situated at four conjugate pairs in North and South America, plus one pair linking Europe and South Africa. In this paper, we describe instrument design, data-taking protocols, data transfer and archiving issues, image processing, science objectives and early results for each latitude domain. This unique capability addresses how a single source of disturbance is transformed into similar or different effects based on the unique "receptor" conditions (seasonal effects) found in each hemisphere. Applying optical conjugate point observations to Space Weather problems offers a new diagnostic approach for understanding the global system response functions operating in the Earth's upper atmosphere.

Dynamic Weather Routes: A Weather Avoidance Concept for Trajectory-Based Operations

Science.gov (United States)

McNally, B. David; Love, John

2011-01-01

The integration of convective weather modeling with trajectory automation for conflict detection, trial planning, direct routing, and auto resolution has uncovered a concept that could help controllers, dispatchers, and pilots identify improved weather routes that result in significant savings in flying time and fuel burn. Trajectory automation continuously and automatically monitors aircraft in flight to find those that could potentially benefit from improved weather reroutes. Controllers, dispatchers, and pilots then evaluate reroute options to assess their suitability given current weather and traffic. In today's operations aircraft fly convective weather avoidance routes that were implemented often hours before aircraft approach the weather and automation does not exist to automatically monitor traffic to find improved weather routes that open up due to changing weather conditions. The automation concept runs in real-time and employs two keysteps. First, a direct routing algorithm automatically identifies flights with large dog legs in their routes and therefore potentially large savings in flying time. These are common - and usually necessary - during convective weather operations and analysis of Fort Worth Center traffic shows many aircraft with short cuts that indicate savings on the order of 10 flying minutes. The second and most critical step is to apply trajectory automation with weather modeling to determine what savings could be achieved by modifying the direct route such that it avoids weather and traffic and is acceptable to controllers and flight crews. Initial analysis of Fort Worth Center traffic suggests a savings of roughly 50% of the direct route savings could be achievable.The core concept is to apply trajectory automation with convective weather modeling in real time to identify a reroute that is free of weather and traffic conflicts and indicates enough time and fuel savings to be considered. The concept is interoperable with today

Carrington-L5: The UK/US Operational Space Weather Monitoring Mission

Science.gov (United States)

Trichas, Markos; Gibbs, Mark; Harrison, Richard; Green, Lucie; Eastwood, Jonathan; Bentley, Bob; Bisi, Mario; Bogdanova, Yulia; Davies, Jackie; D'Arrigo, Paolo; Eyles, Chris; Fazakerley, Andrew; Hapgood, Mike; Jackson, David; Kataria, Dhiren; Monchieri, Emanuele; Windred, Phil

2015-06-01

Airbus Defence and Space (UK) has carried out a study to investigate the possibilities for an operational space weather mission, in collaboration with the Met Office, RAL, MSSL and Imperial College London. The study looked at the user requirements for an operational mission, a model instrument payload, and a mission/spacecraft concept. A particular focus is cost effectiveness and timelineness of the data, suitable for 24/7 operational forecasting needs. We have focussed on a mission at L5 assuming that a mission to L1 will already occur, on the basis that L5 (Earth trailing) offers the greatest benefit for the earliest possible warning on hazardous SWE events and the most accurate SWE predictions. The baseline payload has been selected to cover all UK Met Office/NOAA's users priorities for L5 using instruments with extensive UK/US heritage, consisting of: heliospheric imager, coronograph, magnetograph, magnetometer, solar wind analyser and radiation monitor. The platform and subsystems are based on extensive re-use from past Airbus Defence and Space spacecraft to minimize the development cost and a Falcon-9 launcher has been selected on the same basis. A schedule analysis shows that the earliest launch could be achieved by 2020, assuming Phase A kick-off in 2015-2016. The study team have selected the name "Carrington" for the mission, reflecting the UK's proud history in this domain.

Space weather effects on communications

Science.gov (United States)

Lanzerotti, Louis J.

In the 150 years since the advent of the first electrical communication system - the electrical telegraph - the diversity of communications technologies that are embedded within space-affected environments have vastly increased. The increasing sophistication of these communications technologies, and how their installation and operations may relate to the environments in which they are embedded, requires ever more sophisticated understanding of natural physical phenomena. At the same time, the business environment for most present-day communications technologies that are affected by space phenomena is very dynamic. The commercial and national security deployment and use of these technologies do not wait for optimum knowledge of possible environmental effects to be acquired before new technological embodiments are created, implemented, and marketed. Indeed, those companies that might foolishly seek perfectionist understanding of natural effects can be left behind by the marketplace. A well-considered balance is needed between seeking ever deeper understanding of physical phenomena and implementing `engineering' solutions to current crises. The research community must try to understand, and operate in, this dynamic environment.

Space-Time Quantum Imaging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ronald E. Meyers

2015-03-01

Full Text Available We report on an experimental and theoretical investigation of quantum imaging where the images are stored in both space and time. Ghost images of remote objects are produced with either one or two beams of chaotic laser light generated by a rotating ground glass and two sensors measuring the reference field and bucket field at different space-time points. We further observe that the ghost images translate depending on the time delay between the sensor measurements. The ghost imaging experiments are performed both with and without turbulence. A discussion of the physics of the space-time imaging is presented in terms of quantum nonlocal two-photon analysis to support the experimental results. The theoretical model includes certain phase factors of the rotating ground glass. These experiments demonstrated a means to investigate the time and space aspects of ghost imaging and showed that ghost imaging contains more information per measured photon than was previously recognized where multiple ghost images are stored within the same ghost imaging data sets. This suggests new pathways to explore quantum information stored not only in multi-photon coincidence information but also in time delayed multi-photon interference. The research is applicable to making enhanced space-time quantum images and videos of moving objects where the images are stored in both space and time.

Ionosphere Waves Service (IWS) - a problem-oriented tool in ionosphere and Space Weather research produced by POPDAT project

Science.gov (United States)

Ferencz, Csaba; Lizunov, Georgii; Crespon, François; Price, Ivan; Bankov, Ludmil; Przepiórka, Dorota; Brieß, Klaus; Dudkin, Denis; Girenko, Andrey; Korepanov, Valery; Kuzmych, Andrii; Skorokhod, Tetiana; Marinov, Pencho; Piankova, Olena; Rothkaehl, Hanna; Shtus, Tetyana; Steinbach, Péter; Lichtenberger, János; Sterenharz, Arnold; Vassileva, Any

2014-05-01

In the frame of the FP7 POPDAT project the Ionosphere Waves Service (IWS) has been developed and opened for public access by ionosphere experts. IWS is forming a database, derived from archived ionospheric wave records to assist the ionosphere and Space Weather research, and to answer the following questions: How can the data of earlier ionospheric missions be reprocessed with current algorithms to gain more profitable results? How could the scientific community be provided with a new insight on wave processes that take place in the ionosphere? The answer is a specific and unique data mining service accessing a collection of topical catalogs that characterize a huge number of recorded occurrences of Whistler-like Electromagnetic Wave Phenomena, Atmosphere Gravity Waves, and Traveling Ionosphere Disturbances. IWS online service (http://popdat.cbk.waw.pl) offers end users to query optional set of predefined wave phenomena, their detailed characteristics. These were collected by target specific event detection algorithms in selected satellite records during database buildup phase. Result of performed wave processing thus represents useful information on statistical or comparative investigations of wave types, listed in a detailed catalog of ionospheric wave phenomena. The IWS provides wave event characteristics, extracted by specific software systems from data records of the selected satellite missions. The end-user can access targets by making specific searches and use statistical modules within the service in their field of interest. Therefore the IWS opens a new way in ionosphere and Space Weather research. The scientific applications covered by IWS concern beyond Space Weather also other fields like earthquake precursors, ionosphere climatology, geomagnetic storms, troposphere-ionosphere energy transfer, and trans-ionosphere link perturbations.

Space Weather Research in the Equatorial Region: A Philosophical Reinforcement

Science.gov (United States)

Chukwuma, Victor; Odunaike, Rasaki; Laoye, John

Investigations using radio waves reflected from the ionosphere, at high-and mid-latitudes indicate that ionospheric absorption can strongly increase following geomagnetic storms; which appears to suggest some definite relationship between ionospheric radio wave absorption and geomagnetic storms at these latitudes. However, corresponding earlier studies in the equatorial region did not appear to show any explicit relationship between ionospheric radio wave absorption and geomagnetic storm activity. This position appeared acceptable to the existing scientific paradigm, until in an act of paradigm shift, by a change of storm selection criteria, some more recent space weather investigations in the low latitudes showed that ionospheric radio wave absorption in the equatorial region clearly increases after intense storms. Given that these results in the equatorial region stood against the earlier results, this paper presently attempts to highlight their philosophical underpinning and posit that they constitute a scientific statement.

Does Silicate Weathering of Loess Affect Atmospheric CO2?

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, S. P.

2002-12-01

Weathering of glacial loess may be a significant, yet unrecognized, component of the carbon cycle. Glaciers produce fine-grained sediment, exposing vast amounts of mineral surface area to weathering processes, yet silicate mineral weathering rates at glacier beds and of glacial till are not high. Thus, despite the tremendous potential for glaciers to influence global weathering rates and atmospheric CO2 levels, this effect has not been demonstrated. Loess, comprised of silt-clay sizes, may be the key glacial deposit in which silicate weathering rates are high. Loess is transported by wind off braid plains of rivers, and deposited broadly (order 100 km from the source) in vegetated areas. Both the fine grain size, and hence large mineral surface area, and presence of vegetation should render loess deposits highly susceptible to silicate weathering. These deposits effectively extend the geochemical impact of glaciation in time and space, and bring rock flour into conditions conducive to chemical weathering. A simple 1-d model of silicate weathering fluxes from a soil profile demonstrates the potential of loess deposition to enhance CO2 consumption. At each time step, computed mineral dissolution (using anorthite and field-based rate constants) modifies the size of mineral grains within the soil. In the case of a stable soil surface, this results in a gradual decline in weathering fluxes and CO2 consumption through time, as finer grain sizes dissolve away. Computed weathering fluxes for a typical loess, with an initial mean grain size of 25 μm, are an order of magnitude greater than fluxes from a non-loess soil that differs only in having a mean grain size of 320 μm. High weathering fluxes are maintained through time if loess is continually deposited. Deposition rates as low as 0.01 mm/yr (one loess grain thickness per year) can lead to a doubling of CO2 consumption rates within 5 ka. These results suggest that even modest loess deposition rates can significantly

Solar energetic particles and space weather

Science.gov (United States)

Reames, Donald V.; Tylka, Allan J.; Ng, Chee K.

2001-02-01

The solar energetic particles (SEPs) of consequence to space weather are accelerated at shock waves driven out from the Sun by fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In the large events, these great shocks fill half of the heliosphere. SEP intensity profiles change appearance with longitude. Events with significant intensities of >10 MeV protons occur at an average rate of ~13 yr-1 near solar maximum and several events with high intensities of >100 MeV protons occur each decade. As particles stream out along magnetic field lines from a shock near the Sun, they generate waves that scatter subsequent particles. At high intensities, wave growth throttles the flow below the ``streaming limit.'' However, if the shock maintains its strength, particle intensities can rise above this limit to a peak when the shock itself passes over the observer creating a `delayed' radiation hazard, even for protons with energies up to ~1 GeV. The streaming limit makes us blind to the intensities at the oncoming shock, however, heavier elements such as He, O, and Fe probe the shape of the wave spectrum, and variation in abundances of these elements allow us to evade the limit and probe conditions at the shock, with the aid of detailed modeling. At high energies, spectra steepen to form a spectral `knee.' The location of the proton spectral knee can vary from ~10 MeV to ~1 GeV, depending on shock conditions, greatly affecting the radiation hazard. Hard spectra are a serious threat to astronauts, placing challenging requirements for shielding, especially on long-duration missions to the moon or Mars. .

The weather-stains of care: interpreting the meaning of bad weather for front-line health care workers in rural long-term care.

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph, Gillian M; Skinner, Mark W; Yantzi, Nicole M

2013-08-01

This paper addresses the gap in health services and policy research about the implications of everyday weather for health care work. Building on previous research on the weather-related challenges of caregiving in homes and communities, it examines the experiences of 'seasonal bad weather' for health care workers in long-term care institutions. It features a hermeneutic phenomenology analysis of six transcripts from interviews with nurses and personal support workers from a qualitative study of institutional long-term care work in rural Canada. Focussing on van Manen's existential themes of lived experience (body, relations, space, time), the analysis reveals important contradictions between the lived experiences of health care workers coping with bad weather and long-term care policies and practices that mitigate weather-related risk and vulnerability. The findings contribute to the growing concern for rural health issues particularly the neglected experiences of rural health providers and, in doing so, offer insight into the recent call for greater attention to the geographies of health care work. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Central World Weather Attribution (WWA) project: Real-time extreme weather event attribution analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

2015-04-01

Extreme weather detection and attribution analysis has emerged as a core theme in climate science over the last decade or so. By using a combination of observational data and climate models it is possible to identify the role of climate change in certain types of extreme weather events such as sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events and droughts or heavy rainfall and flood events. These analyses are usually carried out after an extreme event has occurred when reanalysis and observational data become available. The Climate Central WWA project will exploit the increasing forecast skill of seasonal forecast prediction systems such as the UK MetOffice GloSea5 (Global seasonal forecasting system) ensemble forecasting method. This way, the current weather can be fed into climate models to simulate large ensembles of possible weather scenarios before an event has fully emerged yet. This effort runs along parallel and intersecting tracks of science and communications that involve research, message development and testing, staged socialization of attribution science with key audiences, and dissemination. The method we employ uses a very large ensemble of simulations of regional climate models to run two different analyses: one to represent the current climate as it was observed, and one to represent the same events in the world that might have been without human-induced climate change. For the weather "as observed" experiment, the atmospheric model uses observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from GloSea5 (currently) and present-day atmospheric gas concentrations to simulate weather events that are possible given the observed climate conditions. The weather in the "world that might have been" experiments is obtained by removing the anthropogenic forcing from the observed SSTs, thereby simulating a counterfactual world without human activity. The anthropogenic forcing is obtained by comparing the CMIP5 historical and natural simulations

How severe space weather can disrupt global supply chains

Science.gov (United States)

Schulte in den Bäumen, H.; Moran, D.; Lenzen, M.; Cairns, I.; Steenge, A.

2014-10-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) strong enough to create electromagnetic effects at latitudes below the auroral oval are frequent events that could soon have substantial impacts on electrical grids. Modern society's heavy reliance on these domestic and international networks increases our susceptibility to such a severe space-weather event. Using a new high-resolution model of the global economy, we simulate the economic impact of strong CMEs for three different planetary orientations. We account for the economic impacts within the countries directly affected, as well as the post-disaster economic shock in partner economies linked by international trade. For a 1989 Quebec-like event, the global economic impacts would range from USD 2.4 to 3.4 trillion over a year. Of this total economic shock, about 50% would be felt in countries outside the zone of direct impact, leading to a loss in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 3.9 to 5.6%. The global economic damage is of the same order as wars, extreme financial crisis and estimated for future climate change.

Monitoring jonosfere i svemirskog vremena u Bosni i Hercegovini : Monitoring of ionosphere and space weather in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Džana Horozović

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Zbog svoje disperzivne prirode, jonosfera uzrokuje kašnjenje koda, odnosno ubrzanje faze signala Globalnih navigacijskih satelitskih sistema - GNSS. Usprkos napretku metoda GNSS pozicioniranja, jonosferska refrakcija je još uvijek jedan od najvećih izvora pogrešaka geodetskog pozicioniranja i navigacije. Različiti fenomeni svemirskog vremena, kao: solarni vjetar, geomagnetna oluja, solarna radijacija, može oštetiti GNSS satelite, dalekovode i elektrodistributivnu mrežu, itd. Zato je važno ustanoviti metode istraživanja i monitoringa svemirskog vremena. Istraživanje jonosfere i svemirskog vremena je predmet ovog rada. Opisan je postupak konstruiranja SID (engl. sudden ionospheric disturbances – iznenadne jonosferske smetnje monitora. Analiza je pokazala da je jonosferska monitoring stanica u Sarajevu SRJV_ION 0436 sposobna otkriti pojačano zračenje. : Due to its dispersive nature, ionosphere causes a group delay or phase acceleration of the signals from Global navigation satellite systems - GNSS. Despite the progress of GNSS positioning methods, the ionospheric refraction is still one of the greatest source of the errors in the geodetic positioning and navigation. Different phenomenons oft he space weather: solar wind, geomagnetic storm, solar radiation, can damage GNSS, and electric power distribution networks but That is why it's important to establish research and monitoring methods of the space weather. The subject of this paper is the investigation of ionosphere and space weather. Procedure of constructing a SID (engl. Sudden ionospheric disturbances monitor station are described. The analysis showed that ionosphere monitoring station in Sarajevo, SRJV_ION 0436, was able to detect increased solar radiation.

A small mission concept to the Sun-Earth Lagrangian L5 point for innovative solar, heliospheric and space weather science

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Lavraud, B.; Liu, Y.; Segura, K.; He, J.; Qin, G.; Temmer, M.; Vial, J. C.; Xiong, M.; Davies, J. A.; Rouillard, A. P.; Pinto, R.; Auchere, F.; Harrison, R. A.; Eyles, C.; Gan, W.; Lamy, P.; Xia, L.; Eastwood, J. P.; Kong, L.; Wang, J.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.; Zhang, S.; Zong, Q.; Souček, Jan; An, J.; Přech, J.; Zhang, A.; Rochus, P.; Bothmer, V.; Janvier, M.; Maksimovic, M.; Escoubet, C. P.; Kilpua, E. K. J.; Tappin, J.; Vainio, R.; Poedts, S.; Dunlop, M. W.; Savani, N.; Gopalswamy, N.; Bale, S. D.; Howard, T.; DeForest, C.; Webb, D.; Lugaz, N.; Fuselier, S. A.; Dalmasse, K.; Tallineau, J.; Vranken, D.; Fernández, J. G.

2016-01-01

Roč. 146, August (2016), s. 171-185 ISSN 1364-6826 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-31899S; GA MŠk(CZ) LH15304 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : space mission * coronal mass ejections * instrumentation * space weather Subject RIV: BL - Plasma and Gas Discharge Physics Impact factor: 1.326, year: 2016 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682616301456

Cold-Weather Sports

Science.gov (United States)

... Videos for Educators Search English Español Cold-Weather Sports KidsHealth / For Teens / Cold-Weather Sports What's in this article? What to Do? Classes ... weather. What better time to be outdoors? Winter sports can help you burn calories, increase your cardiovascular ...

Metric space construction for the boundary of space-time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, D.A.

1986-01-01

A distance function between points in space-time is defined and used to consider the manifold as a topological metric space. The properties of the distance function are investigated: conditions under which the metric and manifold topologies agree, the relationship with the causal structure of the space-time and with the maximum lifetime function of Wald and Yip, and in terms of the space of causal curves. The space-time is then completed as a topological metric space; the resultant boundary is compared with the causal boundary and is also calculated for some pertinent examples

Blood troponin levels in acute cardiac events depends on space weather activity components (a correlative study).

Science.gov (United States)

Stoupel, Eliiyahu; Radishauskas, Richardas; Bernotiene, Gailute; Tamoshiunas, Abdonas; Virvichiute, Daiva

2018-02-05

Many biological processes are influenced by space weather activity components such as solar activity (SA), geomagnetic activity (GMA) and cosmic ray activity (CRA). Examples are total mortality, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke (cerebrovascular accident), sudden cardiac death, some congenital maladies (congenital heart disease and Down syndrome), many events in neonatology, ophtalmology, blood pressure regulation, blood coagulation, inflammation, etc. The aim of this study was to check if the level of blood troponins (Tns) - markers of myocardial damage and recognized components of modern description of AMI - is connected with the mentioned space weather parameters. Patients admitted to a 3000-bed tertiary university hospital in Kaunas, Lithuania, with suspected AMI were the object of the study. Data for the time between 2008 and 2013 - 72 consecutive months - were studied. Of the patients, 1896 (1398 male, 498 female) had elevated troponin I (Tn I) or troponin T (Tn T, sensitive Tn) levels. Normal values were 0.00-0.03 ng/mL for Tn I and 0.00-14.00 ng/mL for Tn T. Monthly means and standard deviation of Tn I and Tn T were compared with monthly markers of SA, GMA and CRA. Pearson correlation coefficients and their probabilities were established (in addition to the consecutive graphs of both comparing physical and biological data). The cosmophysical data came from space service institutions in the United States, Russia and Finland. AMI was diagnosed in 1188 patients (62.66%), and intermediate coronary syndrome in 698 patients (36.81%). There were significant links of the Tn blood levels with four SA indices and CRA (neutron activity in imp/min); there was no significant correlation with GMA indices Ap and Cp (p=0.27 and p=0.235). Tn T levels significantly correlated with the GMA indices and not with the SA and CRA levels (Ap: r=0.77, p=0.0021; Cp: r=0.729, p=0.0047). First, the monthly level of blood Tn I in ACS is significantly correlated with the indices

Application of statistical distribution theory to launch-on-time for space construction logistic support

Science.gov (United States)

Morgenthaler, George W.

1989-01-01

The ability to launch-on-time and to send payloads into space has progressed dramatically since the days of the earliest missile and space programs. Causes for delay during launch, i.e., unplanned 'holds', are attributable to several sources: weather, range activities, vehicle conditions, human performance, etc. Recent developments in space program, particularly the need for highly reliable logistic support of space construction and the subsequent planned operation of space stations, large unmanned space structures, lunar and Mars bases, and the necessity of providing 'guaranteed' commercial launches have placed increased emphasis on understanding and mastering every aspect of launch vehicle operations. The Center of Space Construction has acquired historical launch vehicle data and is applying these data to the analysis of space launch vehicle logistic support of space construction. This analysis will include development of a better understanding of launch-on-time capability and simulation of required support systems for vehicle assembly and launch which are necessary to support national space program construction schedules. In this paper, the author presents actual launch data on unscheduled 'hold' distributions of various launch vehicles. The data have been supplied by industrial associate companies of the Center for Space Construction. The paper seeks to determine suitable probability models which describe these historical data and that can be used for several purposes such as: inputs to broader simulations of launch vehicle logistic space construction support processes and the determination of which launch operations sources cause the majority of the unscheduled 'holds', and hence to suggest changes which might improve launch-on-time. In particular, the paper investigates the ability of a compound distribution probability model to fit actual data, versus alternative models, and recommends the most productive avenues for future statistical work.

Anthropogenic Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Gombosi, T. I.; Baker, D. N.; Balogh, A.; Erickson, P. J.; Huba, J. D.; Lanzerotti, L. J.

2017-11-01

Anthropogenic effects on the space environment started in the late 19th century and reached their peak in the 1960s when high-altitude nuclear explosions were carried out by the USA and the Soviet Union. These explosions created artificial radiation belts near Earth that resulted in major damages to several satellites. Another, unexpected impact of the high-altitude nuclear tests was the electromagnetic pulse (EMP) that can have devastating effects over a large geographic area (as large as the continental United States). Other anthropogenic impacts on the space environment include chemical release experiments, high-frequency wave heating of the ionosphere and the interaction of VLF waves with the radiation belts. This paper reviews the fundamental physical process behind these phenomena and discusses the observations of their impacts.

Possible links between extreme levels of space weather changes and human health state in middle latitudes: direct and indirect indicators

Science.gov (United States)

Safaraly-Oghlu Babayev, Elchin

The Sun is the main driver of space weather. The possibility that solar activity variations and related changes in the Earth's magnetosphere can affect human life and health has been debated for many decades. This problem is being studied extensively in the late 20th and early 21st centuries and it is still being contradictory in some cases. The relations between space weather changes and the human health have global implications, but they are especially significant for habitants living at high geomagnetic latitudes where the geomagnetic disturbances have larger amplitudes. Nevertheless, the relevant researches are also important for humans living at any geomagnetic latitudes with different levels of geomagnetic activity; recent researches show that weak geomagnetic disturbances can also have adverse effects. Unfortunately, limited comparison of results of investigations on possible effects to humans from geomagnetic activity exists between studies conducted in high, middle and low latitudes. Knowledge about the relationship between solar and geomagnetic activity and the human health would allow to get better prepared beforehand for any future geomagnetic event and its impacts anywhere. For these purposes there are conducted collaborative (jointly with scientists from Israel, Bulgaria, Russia and Belgium) and cross-disciplinary space weather studies in the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences for revealing possible effects of solar, geomagnetic and cosmic ray variability on certain technological, biological and ecological systems in different phases of solar cycle 23. This paper describes some recently obtained results of the complex (theoretical, experimental and statistical) studies of influence of the periodical and aperiodical changes of solar, geomagnetic and cosmic ray activities upon human cardio-health state as well as human physiological and psycho-emotional state. It also covers the conclusions of studies on influence of violent solar events and severe

A time-spectral approach to numerical weather prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Scheffel, Jan; Lindvall, Kristoffer; Yik, Hiu Fai

2018-05-01

Finite difference methods are traditionally used for modelling the time domain in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Time-spectral solution is an attractive alternative for reasons of accuracy and efficiency and because time step limitations associated with causal CFL-like criteria, typical for explicit finite difference methods, are avoided. In this work, the Lorenz 1984 chaotic equations are solved using the time-spectral algorithm GWRM (Generalized Weighted Residual Method). Comparisons of accuracy and efficiency are carried out for both explicit and implicit time-stepping algorithms. It is found that the efficiency of the GWRM compares well with these methods, in particular at high accuracy. For perturbative scenarios, the GWRM was found to be as much as four times faster than the finite difference methods. A primary reason is that the GWRM time intervals typically are two orders of magnitude larger than those of the finite difference methods. The GWRM has the additional advantage to produce analytical solutions in the form of Chebyshev series expansions. The results are encouraging for pursuing further studies, including spatial dependence, of the relevance of time-spectral methods for NWP modelling.

Time-Space Trade-Offs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pagter, Jakob Illeborg

. The area of time-space trade-offs deals with both upper and lower bounds and both are interesting, theoretically as well as practically. The viewpoint of this dissertation is theoretical, but we believe that some of our results can find applications in practice as well. The last four years has witnessed...... perspective hierarchical memory layout models are the most interesting. Such models are called external memory models, in contrast to the internal memory models discussed above. Despite the fact that space might be of great relevance when solving practical problems on real computers, no theoretical model...... capturing space (and time simultaneously) has been defined. We introduce such a model and use it to prove so-called IOspace trade-offs for Sorting. Building on the abovementioned techniques for time-space efficient internal memory Sorting, we develop the first IO-space efficient external memory Sorting...

14 CFR 135.175 - Airborne weather radar equipment requirements.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Airborne weather radar equipment... Aircraft and Equipment § 135.175 Airborne weather radar equipment requirements. (a) No person may operate a large, transport category aircraft in passenger-carrying operations unless approved airborne weather...

The Future of Ground Magnetometer Arrays in Support of Space Weather Monitoring and Research

Science.gov (United States)

Engebretson, Mark; Zesta, Eftyhia

2017-11-01

A community workshop was held in Greenbelt, Maryland, on 5-6 May 2016 to discuss recommendations for the future of ground magnetometer array research in space physics. The community reviewed findings contained in the 2016 Geospace Portfolio Review of the Geospace Section of the Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Science of the National Science Foundation and discussed the present state of ground magnetometer arrays and possible pathways for a more optimal, robust, and effective organization and scientific use of these ground arrays. This paper summarizes the report of that workshop to the National Science Foundation (Engebretson & Zesta, as well as conclusions from two follow-up meetings. It describes the current state of U.S.-funded ground magnetometer arrays and summarizes community recommendations for changes in both organizational and funding structures. It also outlines a variety of new and/or augmented regional and global data products and visualizations that can be facilitated by increased collaboration among arrays. Such products will enhance the value of ground-based magnetometer data to the community's effort for understanding of Earth's space environment and space weather effects.

Ionosphere Waves Service (IWS – a problem-oriented tool in ionosphere and Space Weather research produced by POPDAT project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ferencz Csaba

2014-05-01

Full Text Available In the frame of the FP7 POPDAT project the Ionosphere Waves Service (IWS has been developed and opened for public access by ionosphere experts. IWS is forming a database, derived from archived ionospheric wave records to assist the ionosphere and Space Weather research, and to answer the following questions: How can the data of earlier ionospheric missions be reprocessed with current algorithms to gain more profitable results? How could the scientific community be provided with a new insight on wave processes that take place in the ionosphere? The answer is a specific and unique data mining service accessing a collection of topical catalogs that characterize a huge number of recorded occurrences of Whistler-like Electromagnetic Wave Phenomena, Atmosphere Gravity Waves, and Traveling Ionosphere Disturbances. IWS online service (http://popdat.cbk.waw.pl offers end users to query optional set of predefined wave phenomena, their detailed characteristics. These were collected by target specific event detection algorithms in selected satellite records during database buildup phase. Result of performed wave processing thus represents useful information on statistical or comparative investigations of wave types, listed in a detailed catalog of ionospheric wave phenomena. The IWS provides wave event characteristics, extracted by specific software systems from data records of the selected satellite missions. The end-user can access targets by making specific searches and use statistical modules within the service in their field of interest. Therefore the IWS opens a new way in ionosphere and Space Weather research. The scientific applications covered by IWS concern beyond Space Weather also other fields like earthquake precursors, ionosphere climatology, geomagnetic storms, troposphere-ionosphere energy transfer, and trans-ionosphere link perturbations.

Cockpit weather graphics using mobile satellite communications

Science.gov (United States)

Seth, Shashi

1993-01-01

Many new companies are pushing state-of-the-art technology to bring a revolution in the cockpits of General Aviation (GA) aircraft. The vision, according to Dr. Bruce Holmes - the Assistant Director for Aeronautics at National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Langley Research Center, is to provide such an advanced flight control system that the motor and cognitive skills you use to drive a car would be very similar to the ones you would use to fly an airplane. We at ViGYAN, Inc., are currently developing a system called the Pilot Weather Advisor (PWxA), which would be a part of such an advanced technology flight management system. The PWxA provides graphical depictions of weather information in the cockpit of aircraft in near real-time, through the use of broadcast satellite communications. The purpose of this system is to improve the safety and utility of GA aircraft operations. Considerable effort is being extended for research in the design of graphical weather systems, notably the works of Scanlon and Dash. The concept of providing pilots with graphical depictions of weather conditions, overlaid on geographical and navigational maps, is extremely powerful.

Modeling the evolution of natural cliffs subject to weathering. 1, Limit analysis approach

OpenAIRE

Utili, Stefano; Crosta, Giovanni B.

2011-01-01

Retrogressive landsliding evolution of natural slopes subjected to weathering has been modeled by assuming Mohr-Coulomb material behavior and by using an analytical method. The case of weathering-limited slope conditions, with complete erosion of the accumulated debris, has been modeled. The limit analysis upper-bound method is used to study slope instability induced by a homogeneous decrease of material strength in space and time. The only assumption required in the model concerns the degree...

Space programs in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Lou-Chuang; Chang, Guey-Shin; Ting, Nan-Hong

2013-10-01

Taiwan's current and future space programs are briefly introduced in this paper. The National Space Organization (NSPO) in Taiwan has successfully carried out three satellite programs (FORMOSAT-1, 2, &3) since its establishment in 1991. FORMOSAT-1 is a scientific satellite performing three scientific experiments for measuring the density, velocity and temperature of ionospheric plasmas, taking the ocean color image, and conducting Ka-band communication experiments. Equipped with a 2m ground resolution remote sensing instrument, FORMOSAT-2 operates in a sun-synchronous orbit with revisit time equal to one day. This unique feature of the daily revisit capability is significantly useful for post disaster assessment and environmental monitoring. FORMOSAT-2 also carries a scientific payload "Imager of Sprites and Upper Atmospheric Lightning (ISUAL)". ISUAL provides the world's first long-term satellite observations on the lighting phenomenon in the earth's upper atmosphere. FORMOSAT-3 is a constellation of six micro-satellites to collect atmospheric and ionospheric data for weather prediction and for climate, ionosphere, and geodesy research. FORMOSAT-3 has demonstrated the ability to significantly increase the accuracy of weather forecasting by utilizing the GPS Radio Occultation (GPS-RO) technique. Currently, NSPO is pursuing the follow-on space missions of FORMOSAT-5 and FORMOSAT-7. FORMOSAT-5 will be the first to utilize a CMOS detector on a high-resolution earth-observation camera. FORMOSAT-7 is a joint mission of Taiwan/US to deploy a 12-satellite constellation operational system to provide dense and timely GNSS RO data to the global communities for real-time weather forecast as well as space science research.

14 CFR 125.223 - Airborne weather radar equipment requirements.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Airborne weather radar equipment... Equipment Requirements § 125.223 Airborne weather radar equipment requirements. (a) No person may operate an airplane governed by this part in passenger-carrying operations unless approved airborne weather radar...

14 CFR 121.357 - Airborne weather radar equipment requirements.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Airborne weather radar equipment... § 121.357 Airborne weather radar equipment requirements. (a) No person may operate any transport... December 31, 1964, unless approved airborne weather radar equipment has been installed in the airplane. (b...

Gauge Gravity and Space-Time

OpenAIRE

Wu, Ning

2012-01-01

When we discuss problems on gravity, we can not avoid some fundamental physical problems, such as space-time, inertia, and inertial reference frame. The goal of this paper is to discuss the logic system of gravity theory and the problems of space-time, inertia, and inertial reference frame. The goal of this paper is to set up the theory on space-time in gauge theory of gravity. Based on this theory, it is possible for human kind to manipulate physical space-time on earth, and produce a machin...

Probabilistic forecasting of shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides using real-time numerical weather predictions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Schmidt

2008-04-01

Full Text Available A project established at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA in New Zealand is aimed at developing a prototype of a real-time landslide forecasting system. The objective is to predict temporal changes in landslide probability for shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides, based on quantitative weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models. Global weather forecasts from the United Kingdom Met Office (MO Numerical Weather Prediction model (NWP are coupled with a regional data assimilating NWP model (New Zealand Limited Area Model, NZLAM to forecast atmospheric variables such as precipitation and temperature up to 48 h ahead for all of New Zealand. The weather forecasts are fed into a hydrologic model to predict development of soil moisture and groundwater levels. The forecasted catchment-scale patterns in soil moisture and soil saturation are then downscaled using topographic indices to predict soil moisture status at the local scale, and an infinite slope stability model is applied to determine the triggering soil water threshold at a local scale. The model uses uncertainty of soil parameters to produce probabilistic forecasts of spatio-temporal landslide occurrence 48~h ahead. The system was evaluated for a damaging landslide event in New Zealand. Comparison with landslide densities estimated from satellite imagery resulted in hit rates of 70–90%.

NASA SDO - Solar & Space Weather Education via Social Media

Science.gov (United States)

Durscher, Romeo; Wawro, Martha

2012-03-01

NASA has embraced social media as a valuable tool to communicate the activities of the agency in fulfillment of its mission. Team SDO continues to be on the forefront of using social media in a very engaging and interactive way and share mission information, solar images and space weather updates via a variety of social media platforms and outlets. We will present the impact SDO's social media strategy has made, including follower, friends and fan statistics from Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, Google+ and other outlets. We will discuss the various social media outlets and the techniques we use for reaching and engaging our audience. Effectiveness is measured through the use of various automatically-gathered statistics and level of public engagement. Of key importance to effective social media use is having access to scientists who can quickly respond to questions and express their answers in meaningful ways to the public. Our presentation will highlight the importance of scientist involvement and suggest ways for encouraging more scientists to support these efforts. We will present some of the social media plans for 2012 and discuss how we can continue to educate, inform, engage and inspire.

14 CFR 25.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY AIRPLANES Powerplant Fuel System § 25.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. (a) The fuel system must perform satisfactorily in hot weather operation. This... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 25.961...

Space-Time Chip Equalization for Maximum Diversity Space-Time Block Coded DS-CDMA Downlink Transmission

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petré Frederik

2004-01-01

Full Text Available In the downlink of DS-CDMA, frequency-selectivity destroys the orthogonality of the user signals and introduces multiuser interference (MUI. Space-time chip equalization is an efficient tool to restore the orthogonality of the user signals and suppress the MUI. Furthermore, multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO communication techniques can result in a significant increase in capacity. This paper focuses on space-time block coding (STBC techniques, and aims at combining STBC techniques with the original single-antenna DS-CDMA downlink scheme. This results into the so-called space-time block coded DS-CDMA downlink schemes, many of which have been presented in the past. We focus on a new scheme that enables both the maximum multiantenna diversity and the maximum multipath diversity. Although this maximum diversity can only be collected by maximum likelihood (ML detection, we pursue suboptimal detection by means of space-time chip equalization, which lowers the computational complexity significantly. To design the space-time chip equalizers, we also propose efficient pilot-based methods. Simulation results show improved performance over the space-time RAKE receiver for the space-time block coded DS-CDMA downlink schemes that have been proposed for the UMTS and IS-2000 W-CDMA standards.

Using 311 Data as a Proxy For Weather Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Zou, X.

2017-12-01

According to the World Bank, two-thirds of the global population will lives in urban areas by 2050. The impacts of major weather events have sometimes led to huge economic losses in urban areas and impacts are projected to increase as cities grow. Using remote sensing to study weather in urban areas is challenge because urban areas are small relative to the resolutions of many satellite products. In addition, most human activity is indoors and underground, which neither satellites nor other remote sensing instruments can measure. As a substitute for these instruments, there are datasets that can potentially provide information about the local impacts of the weather. Many cities use the U.S. Federal Communications Commision code for non-emergencies (311) as a hotline for residents to report municipal issues. For example, New York City's 311 dataset contains over a 100 million reports, many of which are potentially related to the impacts of weather events. To isolate the impacts, we aggregate over space and time to reduce the noise in the data and normalize the data to account for uneven distributions of people and complaints. We then compare the potentially weather related 311 reports with global monthly summaries of weather observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) to analyze the impact of weather events as reported by the residents of NYC.

Space and time, matter and mind the relationship between reality and space-time

CERN Document Server