Estimating the Dieaway Time and its Precision from Shift Register Data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Croft, S.; Evans, L. G.; Henzlova, D.; Miller, K. A. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Nuclear Nonproliferation Division, Safeguards Science and Technology Group, Los Alamos (United States)
2012-06-15
Neutron coincidence counting is widely used throughout the nuclear fuel cycle to quantify special nuclear materials that fission, for example Pu. Before calibration and setting to work, instruments undergo a range of performance and characterization tests that typically include measurement of the neutron dieaway characteristic. The neutron dieaway characteristic is a general measure of the likelihood that a neutron will be detected following another neutron, and describes time behavior of detected neutrons in the assay system. This paper shows how the effective 1/ecapture dieaway time of the observable coincidence (doubles) rate may be extracted simply and quickly from two coincidence counting rates recorded with different shift register time gate settings. In particular we address how to assign the precision to such estimates including when the rates are correlated.
Chatterjee, Roshmi; Basu, Mousumi
2018-02-01
The well known time transformation method is used here to derive the temporal and spectral electric field distribution at the output end of a multilayer waveguide which consists of different layers of Kerr nonlinear media. A highly nonlinear CS 3-68 glass is considered as one of the materials of the waveguide which mainly comprises of different chalcogenide glass layers. The results indicate that there is sufficient time delay as well as frequency shift between the input and output pulses which is associated with the phenomenon of adiabatic wavelength conversion (AWC). Depending on different arrangements of materials, the time delay and frequency shift can be changed. As a result an input pulse in visible green region can be blue-shifted or red-shifted according to the choices of refractive index of the non-dispersive Kerr nonlinear media. The results show that under certain conditions the input pulse is broadened or compressed for different combinations of materials. This process of AWC also includes the variation of temporal and spectral phase, time delay, temporal peak power etc. For different input pulse shapes the change in time delay is also presented. The study may be useful to find applications of AWC in optical resonators or optical signal processing to be applicable to different photonic devices.
Estimation of changes in saturation and pressure from 4D seismic AVO and time-shift analysis
Trani, M.; Arts, R.; Leeuwenburgh, O.; Brouwer, J.
2011-01-01
A reliable estimate of reservoir pressure and fluid saturation changes from time-lapse seismic data is difficult to obtain. Existing methods generally suffer from leakage between the estimated parameters. We propose a new method using different combinations of time-lapse seismic attributes based on
Estimate of coherent tune shifts for PEP
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yao, C.Y.; Chao, A.W.
1981-02-01
Transverse and longitudinal instabilities for a bunched PEP beam with a Gaussian distribution are treated using the standard technique in which instability problems are solved by looking for eigenvalues of the linearized Vlasov equation. The eigen solutions are conveniently expanded in terms of the Laquerre polynomials, and the eigenvalues are given by a symmetric matrix whose elements can be expressed in infinite series. The well-known formalism is used to obtain the matrix formula, and then applied numerically to the PEP ring to estimate the transverse coherent tune shifts. The impedance used is that estimated for the PEP RF cavities. The agreement with experimental data seems reasonable
Time Zones, Shift Working and International Outsourcing
Matsuoka, Yuji; Fukushima, Marcelo
2009-01-01
We build a trade model with two identical countries located in different time zones and a monopolistically competitive sector of which production requires differentiated goods produced in two successive stages. We introduce shift working disutility and allow consumers to choose between day and night shifts. Shift working disutility raises the cost of night production and firms can reduce costs by “virtually” outsourcing foreign labor. We found that firms only outsource if relat...
Meyer, Andreas L S; Wiens, John J
2018-01-01
Estimates of diversification rates are invaluable for many macroevolutionary studies. Recently, an approach called BAMM (Bayesian Analysis of Macro-evolutionary Mixtures) has become widely used for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts. At the same time, several articles have concluded that estimates of net diversification rates from the method-of-moments (MS) estimators are inaccurate. Yet, no studies have compared the ability of these two methods to accurately estimate clade diversification rates. Here, we use simulations to compare their performance. We found that BAMM yielded relatively weak relationships between true and estimated diversification rates. This occurred because BAMM underestimated the number of rates shifts across each tree, and assigned high rates to small clades with low rates. Errors in both speciation and extinction rates contributed to these errors, showing that using BAMM to estimate only speciation rates is also problematic. In contrast, the MS estimators (particularly using stem group ages), yielded stronger relationships between true and estimated diversification rates, by roughly twofold. Furthermore, the MS approach remained relatively accurate when diversification rates were heterogeneous within clades, despite the widespread assumption that it requires constant rates within clades. Overall, we caution that BAMM may be problematic for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.
Machiavellianism, Discussion Time, and Group Shift
Lamm, Helmut; Myers, David G.
1976-01-01
Social-emotional and rational-cognitive explanations of group risky shift on choice dilemmas (hypothetical life situations) were evaluated by comparing shift in groups of low Mach (emotional) and high Mach (non-emotional) subjects. Effects of Machiavellian beliefs on social functioning are examined. Group composition was not observed to affect…
Energy shift estimation of demand response activation on domestic refrigerators – A field test study
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lakshmanan, Venkatachalam; Gudmand-Høyer, Kristian; Marinelli, Mattia
2014-01-01
This paper presents a method to estimate the amount of energy that can be shifted during demand response (DR) activation on domestic refrigerator. Though there are many methods for DR activation like load reduction, load shifting and onsite generation, the method under study is load shifting....... Electric heating and cooling equipment like refrigerators, water heaters and space heaters and coolers are preferred for such DR activation because of their energy storing capacity. Accurate estimation of available regulating power and energy shift is important to understand the value of DR activation...... at any time. In this paper a novel method to estimate the available energy shift from domestic refrigerators with only two measurements, namely fridge cool chamber temperature and compressor power consumption is proposed, discussed and evaluated....
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Svetlana Postnova
Full Text Available Shift work has become an integral part of our life with almost 20% of the population being involved in different shift schedules in developed countries. However, the atypical work times, especially the night shifts, are associated with reduced quality and quantity of sleep that leads to increase of sleepiness often culminating in accidents. It has been demonstrated that shift workers' sleepiness can be improved by a proper scheduling of light exposure and optimizing shifts timing. Here, an integrated physiologically-based model of sleep-wake cycles is used to predict adaptation to shift work in different light conditions and for different shift start times for a schedule of four consecutive days of work. The integrated model combines a model of the ascending arousal system in the brain that controls the sleep-wake switch and a human circadian pacemaker model. To validate the application of the integrated model and demonstrate its utility, its dynamics are adjusted to achieve a fit to published experimental results showing adaptation of night shift workers (n = 8 in conditions of either bright or regular lighting. Further, the model is used to predict the shift workers' adaptation to the same shift schedule, but for conditions not considered in the experiment. The model demonstrates that the intensity of shift light can be reduced fourfold from that used in the experiment and still produce good adaptation to night work. The model predicts that sleepiness of the workers during night shifts on a protocol with either bright or regular lighting can be significantly improved by starting the shift earlier in the night, e.g.; at 21:00 instead of 00:00. Finally, the study predicts that people of the same chronotype, i.e. with identical sleep times in normal conditions, can have drastically different responses to shift work depending on their intrinsic circadian and homeostatic parameters.
Postnova, Svetlana; Robinson, Peter A; Postnov, Dmitry D
2013-01-01
Shift work has become an integral part of our life with almost 20% of the population being involved in different shift schedules in developed countries. However, the atypical work times, especially the night shifts, are associated with reduced quality and quantity of sleep that leads to increase of sleepiness often culminating in accidents. It has been demonstrated that shift workers' sleepiness can be improved by a proper scheduling of light exposure and optimizing shifts timing. Here, an integrated physiologically-based model of sleep-wake cycles is used to predict adaptation to shift work in different light conditions and for different shift start times for a schedule of four consecutive days of work. The integrated model combines a model of the ascending arousal system in the brain that controls the sleep-wake switch and a human circadian pacemaker model. To validate the application of the integrated model and demonstrate its utility, its dynamics are adjusted to achieve a fit to published experimental results showing adaptation of night shift workers (n = 8) in conditions of either bright or regular lighting. Further, the model is used to predict the shift workers' adaptation to the same shift schedule, but for conditions not considered in the experiment. The model demonstrates that the intensity of shift light can be reduced fourfold from that used in the experiment and still produce good adaptation to night work. The model predicts that sleepiness of the workers during night shifts on a protocol with either bright or regular lighting can be significantly improved by starting the shift earlier in the night, e.g.; at 21:00 instead of 00:00. Finally, the study predicts that people of the same chronotype, i.e. with identical sleep times in normal conditions, can have drastically different responses to shift work depending on their intrinsic circadian and homeostatic parameters.
Travel time estimation using Bluetooth.
2015-06-01
The objective of this study was to investigate the feasibility of using a Bluetooth Probe Detection System (BPDS) to : estimate travel time in an urban area. Specifically, the study investigated the possibility of measuring overall congestion, the : ...
Limitations of the time slide method of background estimation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Was, Michal; Bizouard, Marie-Anne; Brisson, Violette; Cavalier, Fabien; Davier, Michel; Hello, Patrice; Leroy, Nicolas; Robinet, Florent; Vavoulidis, Miltiadis
2010-01-01
Time shifting the output of gravitational wave detectors operating in coincidence is a convenient way of estimating the background in a search for short-duration signals. In this paper, we show how non-stationary data affect the background estimation precision. We present a method of measuring the fluctuations of the data and computing its effects on a coincident search. In particular, we show that for fluctuations of moderate amplitude, time slides larger than the fluctuation time scales can be used. We also recall how the false alarm variance saturates with the number of time shifts.
Limitations of the time slide method of background estimation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Was, Michal; Bizouard, Marie-Anne; Brisson, Violette; Cavalier, Fabien; Davier, Michel; Hello, Patrice; Leroy, Nicolas; Robinet, Florent; Vavoulidis, Miltiadis, E-mail: mwas@lal.in2p3.f [LAL, Universite Paris-Sud, CNRS/IN2P3, Orsay (France)
2010-10-07
Time shifting the output of gravitational wave detectors operating in coincidence is a convenient way of estimating the background in a search for short-duration signals. In this paper, we show how non-stationary data affect the background estimation precision. We present a method of measuring the fluctuations of the data and computing its effects on a coincident search. In particular, we show that for fluctuations of moderate amplitude, time slides larger than the fluctuation time scales can be used. We also recall how the false alarm variance saturates with the number of time shifts.
Influence of relaxation times on the Bloch-Siegert shift
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cao Long Van
1981-01-01
A new method for calculations of Bloch-Siegert shifts in resonances between excited states with the inclusion of relaxation times is given. It will be shown that in this case the definition of the resonance given by I. Bialynicka-Birula is in agreement with the criterion defining the resonance used by D.A. Andrews and G. Newton. (author)
Theoretical and Experimental Estimations of Volumetric Inductive Phase Shift in Breast Cancer Tissue
González, C. A.; Lozano, L. M.; Uscanga, M. C.; Silva, J. G.; Polo, S. M.
2013-04-01
Impedance measurements based on magnetic induction for breast cancer detection has been proposed in some studies. This study evaluates theoretical and experimentally the use of a non-invasive technique based on magnetic induction for detection of patho-physiological conditions in breast cancer tissue associated to its volumetric electrical conductivity changes through inductive phase shift measurements. An induction coils-breast 3D pixel model was designed and tested. The model involves two circular coils coaxially centered and a human breast volume centrally placed with respect to the coils. A time-harmonic numerical simulation study addressed the effects of frequency-dependent electrical properties of tumoral tissue on the volumetric inductive phase shift of the breast model measured with the circular coils as inductor and sensor elements. Experimentally; five female volunteer patients with infiltrating ductal carcinoma previously diagnosed by the radiology and oncology departments of the Specialty Clinic for Women of the Mexican Army were measured by an experimental inductive spectrometer and the use of an ergonomic inductor-sensor coil designed to estimate the volumetric inductive phase shift in human breast tissue. Theoretical and experimental inductive phase shift estimations were developed at four frequencies: 0.01, 0.1, 1 and 10 MHz. The theoretical estimations were qualitatively in agreement with the experimental findings. Important increments in volumetric inductive phase shift measurements were evident at 0.01MHz in theoretical and experimental observations. The results suggest that the tested technique has the potential to detect pathological conditions in breast tissue associated to cancer by non-invasive monitoring. Further complementary studies are warranted to confirm the observations.
Simulation-based medical education: time for a pedagogical shift.
Kalaniti, Kaarthigeyan; Campbell, Douglas M
2015-01-01
The purpose of medical education at all levels is to prepare physicians with the knowledge and comprehensive skills, required to deliver safe and effective patient care. The traditional 'apprentice' learning model in medical education is undergoing a pedagogical shift to a 'simulation-based' learning model. Experiential learning, deliberate practice and the ability to provide immediate feedback are the primary advantages of simulation-based medical education. It is an effective way to develop new skills, identify knowledge gaps, reduce medical errors, and maintain infrequently used clinical skills even among experienced clinical teams, with the overall goal of improving patient care. Although simulation cannot replace clinical exposure as a form of experiential learning, it promotes learning without compromising patient safety. This new paradigm shift is revolutionizing medical education in the Western world. It is time that the developing countries embrace this new pedagogical shift.
Estimating profit shifting in South Africa using firm-level tax returns
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wier, Ludvig
2016-01-01
Using the universe of South African corporate tax returns for 2009–14, we estimate profit- and debt-shifting responses in South Africa. We find evidence that South African subsidiaries engage in profit shifting and that profit-shifting responses to tax incentives across all channels...
Xing, Yafei; Macq, Benoit
2017-11-01
With the emergence of clinical prototypes and first patient acquisitions for proton therapy, the research on prompt gamma imaging is aiming at making most use of the prompt gamma data for in vivo estimation of any shift from expected Bragg peak (BP). The simple problem of matching the measured prompt gamma profile of each pencil beam with a reference simulation from the treatment plan is actually made complex by uncertainties which can translate into distortions during treatment. We will illustrate this challenge and demonstrate the robustness of a predictive linear model we proposed for BP shift estimation based on principal component analysis (PCA) method. It considered the first clinical knife-edge slit camera design in use with anthropomorphic phantom CT data. Particularly, 4115 error scenarios were simulated for the learning model. PCA was applied to the training input randomly chosen from 500 scenarios for eliminating data collinearities. A total variance of 99.95% was used for representing the testing input from 3615 scenarios. This model improved the BP shift estimation by an average of 63+/-19% in a range between -2.5% and 86%, comparing to our previous profile shift (PS) method. The robustness of our method was demonstrated by a comparative study conducted by applying 1000 times Poisson noise to each profile. 67% cases obtained by the learning model had lower prediction errors than those obtained by PS method. The estimation accuracy ranged between 0.31 +/- 0.22 mm and 1.84 +/- 8.98 mm for the learning model, while for PS method it ranged between 0.3 +/- 0.25 mm and 20.71 +/- 8.38 mm.
Reichman, Orna; Samueloff, Arnon; Gdansky, Efraim; Yekel, Yael; Calderon-Margalit, Ronit
2015-03-01
The time of shift change is a unique time because the continuity of routine care is interrupted. The association between delivery during time of shift change and obstetric complications has not been evaluated. We hypothesized that delivery during time of shift change is at risk for obstetric complications. A historical cohort study was performed of all women with a singleton pregnancy undergoing a trial of labor at term during 2006-2010. Data was extracted from a computerized database that is continuously updated during Labor. The hour of delivery was divided into two categories: "morning shift" (09:30-15:00) and "time of shift change" which was defined 30 minutes prior to and 90 minutes past the official time of shift change, which occurs twice daily at 07:30 and 15:30. Multivariate logistic regression models were implemented to estimate the association between deliveries during "time of shift change" compared to "morning weekdays", with instrumental delivery (primary outcome) and prolonged second stage, unplanned cesarean section, postpartum hemorrhage, 5 minutes Apgar score deliveries were included in the cohort. No statistical difference in instrumental vaginal delivery was documented for women delivering during "time of shift change compared to morning shift weekdays (OR = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.83- 1.11, p = 0.605). None of the secondary outcomes were found at risk for women delivering during "time of shift change". Delivery during "time of shift change" does not pose additional risk for obstetric complications.
Observation of Broadband Time-Dependent Rabi Shifting in Microplasmas
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Compton, Ryan; Filin, Alex; Romanov, Dmitri A.; Levis, Robert J.
2009-01-01
Coherent broadband radiation in the form of Rabi sidebands is observed when a ps probe laser propagates through a weakly ionized, electronically excited microplasma generated in the focus of an intense pump beam. The sidebands arise from the interaction of the probe beam with pairs of excited states of a constituent neutral atom via the probe-induced Rabi oscillation. Sideband shifting of >90 meV from the probe carrier frequency results in an effective bandwidth of 200 meV. The sidebands are controlled by the intensity and temporal profile of the probe pulse; with amplitude and shift in agreement with the predictions of a time-dependent generalized Rabi cycling model.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhiguo Zhao
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Based on the independently developed five-speed dry dual clutch transmission (DDCT, the paper proposes the torque coordinating control strategy between engine and two clutches, which obtains engine speed and clutch transferred torque in the shifting process, adequately reflecting the driver intention and improving the shifting quality. Five-degree-of-freedom (DOF shifting dynamics model of DDCT with single intermediate shaft is firstly established according to its physical characteristics. Then the quantitative control objectives of the shifting process are presented. The fuzzy decision of shifting time and the model-based torque coordinating control strategy are proposed and also verified by simulating under different driving intentions in up-/downshifting processes with the DCT model established on the MATLAB/Simulink. Simulation results validate that the shifting control algorithm proposed in this paper can not only meet the shifting quality requirements, but also adapt to the various shifting intentions, having a strong robustness.
Bayesian Estimation Of Shift Point In Poisson Model Under Asymmetric Loss Functions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
uma srivastava
2012-01-01
Full Text Available The paper deals with estimating shift point which occurs in any sequence of independent observations of Poisson model in statistical process control. This shift point occurs in the sequence when i.e. m life data are observed. The Bayes estimator on shift point 'm' and before and after shift process means are derived for symmetric and asymmetric loss functions under informative and non informative priors. The sensitivity analysis of Bayes estimators are carried out by simulation and numerical comparisons with R-programming. The results shows the effectiveness of shift in sequence of Poisson disribution .
Using Time Clusters for Following Users’ Shifts in Rating Practices
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dionisis Margaris
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Users that enter ratings for items follow different rating practices, in the sense that, when rating items, some users are more lenient, while others are stricter. This aspect is taken into account by the most widely used similarity metric in user-user collaborative filtering, namely, the Pearson Correlation, which adjusts each individual user rating by the mean value of the ratings entered by the specific user, when computing similarities. However, a user’s rating practices change over time, i.e. a user could start as strict and subsequently become lenient or vice versa. In that sense, the practice of using a single mean value for adjusting users’ ratings is inadequate, since it fails to follow such shifts in users’ rating practices, leading to decreased rating prediction accuracy. In this work, we address this issue by using the concept of dynamic averages introduced earlier and we extend earlier work by (1 introducing the concept of rating time clusters and (2 presenting a novel algorithm for calculating dynamic user averages and exploiting them in user-user collaborative, filtering implementations. The proposed algorithm incorporates the aforementioned concept and is able to follow more successfully shifts in users’ rating practices. It has been evaluated using numerous datasets, and has been found to introduce significant gains in rating prediction accuracy, while outperforming the dynamic average computation approaches that are presented earlier.
Ordinal Regression Based Subpixel Shift Estimation for Video Super-Resolution
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Petrovic Nemanja
2007-01-01
Full Text Available We present a supervised learning-based approach for subpixel motion estimation which is then used to perform video super-resolution. The novelty of this work is the formulation of the problem of subpixel motion estimation in a ranking framework. The ranking formulation is a variant of classification and regression formulation, in which the ordering present in class labels namely, the shift between patches is explicitly taken into account. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of our approach on superresolving synthetically generated images with global subpixel shifts and enhancing real video frames by accounting for both local integer and subpixel shifts.
Estimates of expansion time scales
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jones, E.M.
1979-01-01
Monte Carlo simulations of the expansion of a spacefaring civilization show that descendants of that civilization should be found near virtually every useful star in the Galaxy in a time much less than the current age of the Galaxy. Only extreme assumptions about local population growth rates, emigration rates, or ship ranges can slow or halt an expansion. The apparent absence of extraterrestrials from the solar system suggests that no such civilization has arisen in the Galaxy. 1 figure
Iterative PSF Estimation and Its Application to Shift Invariant and Variant Blur Reduction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Seung-Won Jung
2009-01-01
Full Text Available Among image restoration approaches, image deconvolution has been considered a powerful solution. In image deconvolution, a point spread function (PSF, which describes the blur of the image, needs to be determined. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an iterative PSF estimation algorithm which is able to estimate an accurate PSF. In real-world motion-blurred images, a simple parametric model of the PSF fails when a camera moves in an arbitrary direction with an inconsistent speed during an exposure time. Moreover, the PSF normally changes with spatial location. In order to accurately estimate the complex PSF of a real motion blurred image, we iteratively update the PSF by using a directional spreading operator. The directional spreading is applied to the PSF when it reduces the amount of the blur and the restoration artifacts. Then, to generalize the proposed technique to the linear shift variant (LSV model, a piecewise invariant approach is adopted by the proposed image segmentation method. Experimental results show that the proposed method effectively estimates the PSF and restores the degraded images.
Parameter Estimation in Continuous Time Domain
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gabriela M. ATANASIU
2016-12-01
Full Text Available This paper will aim to presents the applications of a continuous-time parameter estimation method for estimating structural parameters of a real bridge structure. For the purpose of illustrating this method two case studies of a bridge pile located in a highly seismic risk area are considered, for which the structural parameters for the mass, damping and stiffness are estimated. The estimation process is followed by the validation of the analytical results and comparison with them to the measurement data. Further benefits and applications for the continuous-time parameter estimation method in civil engineering are presented in the final part of this paper.
Abrupt category shifts during real-time person perception.
Freeman, Jonathan B
2014-02-01
Previous studies have suggested that real-time person perception relies on continuous competition, in which partially active categories smoothly compete over time. Here, two studies demonstrated the involvement of a different kind of competition. In Study 1, before participants selected the correct sex category for morphed faces, their mouse trajectories often exhibited a continuous attraction toward the incorrect category that increased with sex-category ambiguity, indicating continuous competition. On other trials, however, trajectories initially pursued the incorrect category and then abruptly redirected toward the correct category, suggesting early incorrect category activation that was rapidly reversed later in processing. These abrupt category reversals also increased with ambiguity. In Study 2, participants were presented with faces containing a sex-typical or sex-atypical hair cue, in a context in which the norm was either sex-typical targets (normative context) or sex-atypical targets (counternormative context). Sex-atypical targets induced greater competition in the normative context, but sex-typical targets induced greater competition in the counternormative context. Together, these results demonstrate that categorizing others involves both smooth competition and abrupt category shifts, and that these flexibly adapt to the social context.
The PRISM (Pliocene Palaeoclimate) reconstruction: Time for a paradigm shift
Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Stoll, Danielle K.; Foley, Kevin M.; Johnson, Andrew L. A.; Williams, Mark; Riesselman, Christina
2013-01-01
Global palaeoclimate reconstructions have been invaluable to our understanding of the causes and effects of climate change, but single-temperature representations of the oceanic mixed layer for data–model comparisons are outdated, and the time for a paradigm shift in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction is overdue. The new paradigm in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction stems the loss of valuable climate information and instead presents a holistic and nuanced interpretation of multi-dimensional oceanographic processes and responses. A wealth of environmental information is hidden within the US Geological Survey's Pliocene Research,Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) marine palaeoclimate reconstruction, and we introduce here a plan to incorporate all valuable climate data into the next generation of PRISM products. Beyond the global approach and focus, we plan to incorporate regional climate dynamics with emphasis on processes, integrating multiple environmental proxies wherever available in order to better characterize the mixed layer, and developing a finer time slice within the Mid-Piacenzian Age of the Pliocene, complemented by underused proxies that offer snapshots into environmental conditions. The result will be a proxy-rich, temporally nested, process-oriented approach in a digital format - a relational database with geographic information system capabilities comprising a three-dimensional grid representing the surface layer, with a plethora of data in each cell.
Global Population Density Grid Time Series Estimates
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Population Density Grid Time Series Estimates provide a back-cast time series of population density grids based on the year 2000 population grid from SEDAC's...
Dynamic travel time estimation using regression trees.
2008-10-01
This report presents a methodology for travel time estimation by using regression trees. The dissemination of travel time information has become crucial for effective traffic management, especially under congested road conditions. In the absence of c...
Cortisol, reaction time test and health among offshore shift workers
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Harris, Anette; Waage, Siri; Ursin, Holger
2010-01-01
The stress hormone cortisol shows a pronounced endogenous diurnal rhythm, which is affected by the sleep/wake cycle, meals and activity. Shift work and especially night work disrupts the sleep/wake cycle and causes a desynchronization of the natural biological rhythms. Therefore, different shift...
Estimation of bias shifts in a steam-generator water-level controller
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tylee, J.L.
1983-01-01
A method for detecting and estimating the value of sudden bias shifts in a U-tube steam-generator water-level controller is described and evaluated. Generalized likelihood ratios (GLR) are used to perform both the bias detection and bias estimation. Simulation results using a seventh-order, linear, discrete steam-generator model demonstrate the capabilities of the GLR detection/estimation approach
Accuracy of prehospital transport time estimation.
Wallace, David J; Kahn, Jeremy M; Angus, Derek C; Martin-Gill, Christian; Callaway, Clifton W; Rea, Thomas D; Chhatwal, Jagpreet; Kurland, Kristen; Seymour, Christopher W
2014-01-01
Estimates of prehospital transport times are an important part of emergency care system research and planning; however, the accuracy of these estimates is unknown. The authors examined the accuracy of three estimation methods against observed transport times in a large cohort of prehospital patient transports. This was a validation study using prehospital records in King County, Washington, and southwestern Pennsylvania from 2002 to 2006 and 2005 to 2011, respectively. Transport time estimates were generated using three methods: linear arc distance, Google Maps, and ArcGIS Network Analyst. Estimation error, defined as the absolute difference between observed and estimated transport time, was assessed, as well as the proportion of estimated times that were within specified error thresholds. Based on the primary results, a regression estimate was used that incorporated population density, time of day, and season to assess improved accuracy. Finally, hospital catchment areas were compared using each method with a fixed drive time. The authors analyzed 29,935 prehospital transports to 44 hospitals. The mean (± standard deviation [±SD]) absolute error was 4.8 (±7.3) minutes using linear arc, 3.5 (±5.4) minutes using Google Maps, and 4.4 (±5.7) minutes using ArcGIS. All pairwise comparisons were statistically significant (p Google Maps, and 11.6 [±10.9] minutes for ArcGIS). Estimates were within 5 minutes of observed transport time for 79% of linear arc estimates, 86.6% of Google Maps estimates, and 81.3% of ArcGIS estimates. The regression-based approach did not substantially improve estimation. There were large differences in hospital catchment areas estimated by each method. Route-based transport time estimates demonstrate moderate accuracy. These methods can be valuable for informing a host of decisions related to the system organization and patient access to emergency medical care; however, they should be employed with sensitivity to their limitations.
Accurate estimation of indoor travel times
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Prentow, Thor Siiger; Blunck, Henrik; Stisen, Allan
2014-01-01
The ability to accurately estimate indoor travel times is crucial for enabling improvements within application areas such as indoor navigation, logistics for mobile workers, and facility management. In this paper, we study the challenges inherent in indoor travel time estimation, and we propose...... the InTraTime method for accurately estimating indoor travel times via mining of historical and real-time indoor position traces. The method learns during operation both travel routes, travel times and their respective likelihood---both for routes traveled as well as for sub-routes thereof. InTraTime...... allows to specify temporal and other query parameters, such as time-of-day, day-of-week or the identity of the traveling individual. As input the method is designed to take generic position traces and is thus interoperable with a variety of indoor positioning systems. The method's advantages include...
Shifts happened…time to optimize your practice!
Washington, Greg
2010-11-01
The 21st century opened with economic shifts the likes of which were not experienced for over half a century. The effects of these shifts require facial surgery specialists to conduct an objective audit of their business to not only survive but thrive in the new economic environment. This article discusses specific steps and provides checklists for practitioners in cosmetic surgery related to strategy, auditing, budgeting, marketing, and innovating to grow a successful practice. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Anomalous dismeter distribution shifts estimated from FIA inventories through time
Francis A. Roesch; Paul C. Van Deusen
2010-01-01
In the past decade, the United States Department of Agriculture Forest Serviceâs Forest Inventory and Analysis Program (FIA) has replaced regionally autonomous, periodic, state-wide forest inventories using various probability proportional to tree size sampling designs with a nationally consistent annual forest inventory design utilizing systematically spaced clusters...
On the background estimation by time slides in a network of gravitational wave detectors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Was, Michal; Bizouard, Marie-Anne; Brisson, Violette; Cavalier, Fabien; Davier, Michel; Hello, Patrice; Leroy, Nicolas; Robinet, Florent; Vavoulidis, Miltiadis
2010-01-01
Time shifting the outputs of gravitational wave detectors operating in coincidence is a convenient way to estimate the background in a search for short-duration signals. However, this procedure is limited as increasing indefinitely the number of time shifts does not provide better estimates. We show that the false alarm rate estimation error saturates with the number of time shifts. In particular, for detectors with very different trigger rates, this error saturates at a large value. Explicit computations are done for two detectors, and for three detectors where the detection statistic relies on the logical 'OR' of the coincidences of the three couples in the network.
On the background estimation by time slides in a network of gravitational wave detectors
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Was, Michal; Bizouard, Marie-Anne; Brisson, Violette; Cavalier, Fabien; Davier, Michel; Hello, Patrice; Leroy, Nicolas; Robinet, Florent; Vavoulidis, Miltiadis, E-mail: mwas@lal.in2p3.f [LAL, Univ. Paris-Sud, CNRS/IN2P3, Orsay (France)
2010-01-07
Time shifting the outputs of gravitational wave detectors operating in coincidence is a convenient way to estimate the background in a search for short-duration signals. However, this procedure is limited as increasing indefinitely the number of time shifts does not provide better estimates. We show that the false alarm rate estimation error saturates with the number of time shifts. In particular, for detectors with very different trigger rates, this error saturates at a large value. Explicit computations are done for two detectors, and for three detectors where the detection statistic relies on the logical 'OR' of the coincidences of the three couples in the network.
The shift to and from daylight savings time and motor vehicle crashes.
Lambe, M; Cummings, P
2000-07-01
The objective of the study was to examine whether the shifts to and from daylight savings time in Sweden have short-term effects on the incidence of traffic crashes. A database maintained by the Swedish National Road Administration was used to examine crashes from 1984 through 1995, that occurred on state roads the Monday preceding, the Monday immediately after (index Monday), and the Monday 1 week after the change to daylight savings time in the spring and for the corresponding three Mondays in the autumn. The Mondays 1 week before and after the time changes were taken as representing the expected incidence of crashes. Crash incidence was calculated per 1000 person-years using population estimates for each year of the study. The association between 1 h of possible sleep loss and crash incidence was estimated by the incidence rate ratio from negative binomial regression. The incidence rate ratio was 1.04 (95% CI, 0.92-1.16) for a Monday on which drivers were expected to have had 1 h less sleep, compared with other Mondays. In the spring, the incidence rate ratio for crashes was 1.11 (95% CI, 0.93-1.31) for Mondays after the time change compared to other spring Mondays. The corresponding rate ratio for the fall was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.84-1.15) It was concluded that the shift to and from daylight savings time did not have measurable important immediate effects on crash incidence in Sweden.
Time Estimation Deficits in Childhood Mathematics Difficulties
Hurks, Petra P. M.; van Loosbroek, Erik
2014-01-01
Time perception has not been comprehensively examined in mathematics difficulties (MD). Therefore, verbal time estimation, production, and reproduction were tested in 13 individuals with MD and 16 healthy controls, matched for age, sex, and intellectual skills. Individuals with MD performed comparably to controls in time reproduction, but showed a…
Comparative study for the estimation of To shift due to irradiation embrittlement
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Jin Ho; Park, Youn won; Choi, Young Hwan; Kim, Seok Hun; Revka, Volodymyr
2002-01-01
Recently, an approach called the 'Master Curve' method was proposed which has opened a new means to acquire a directly measured material-specific fracture toughness curve. For the entire application of the Master Curve method, several technical issues should be solved. One of them is to utilize existing Charpy impact test data in the evaluation of a fracture transition temperature shift due to irradiation damage. In the U.S. and most Western countries, the Charpy impact test data have been used to estimate the irradiation effects on fracture toughness changes of RPV materials. For the determination of the irradiation shift the indexing energy level of 41 joule is used irrespective of the material yield strength. The Russian Code also requires the Charpy impact test data to determine the extent of radiation embrittlement. Unlike the U.S. Code, however, the Russian approach uses the indexing energy level varying according to the material strength. The objective of this study is to determine a method by which the reference transition temperature shift (ΔT o ) due to irradiation can be estimated. By comparing the irradiation shift estimated according to the U.S. procedure (ΔT 41J ) with that estimated according to the Russian procedure (ΔT F ), it was found that one-to-one relation exists between ΔT o and ΔT F
estimating formwork striking time for concrete mixes estimating
African Journals Online (AJOL)
eobe
In this study, we estimated the time for strength development in concrete cured up to 56 days. Water. In this .... regression analysis using MS Excel 2016 Software performed on the ..... [1] Abolfazl, K. R, Peroti S. and Rahemi L 'The Effect of.
Zhang, Kai; Batterman, Stuart A
2009-10-15
Traffic congestion increases air pollutant exposures of commuters and urban populations due to the increased time spent in traffic and the increased vehicular emissions that occur in congestion, especially "stop-and-go" traffic. Increased time in traffic also decreases time in other microenvironments, a trade-off that has not been considered in previous time activity pattern (TAP) analyses conducted for exposure assessment purposes. This research investigates changes in time allocations and exposures that result from traffic congestion. Time shifts were derived using data from the National Human Activity Pattern Survey (NHAPS), which was aggregated to nine microenvironments (six indoor locations, two outdoor locations and one transport location). After imputing missing values, handling outliers, and conducting other quality checks, these data were stratified by respondent age, employment status and period (weekday/weekend). Trade-offs or time-shift coefficients between time spent in vehicles and the eight other microenvironments were then estimated using robust regression. For children and retirees, congestion primarily reduced the time spent at home; for older children and working adults, congestion shifted the time spent at home as well as time in schools, public buildings, and other indoor environments. Changes in benzene and PM(2.5) exposure were estimated for the current average travel delay in the U.S. (9 min day(-1)) and other scenarios using the estimated time shifts coefficients, concentrations in key microenvironments derived from the literature, and a probabilistic analysis. Changes in exposures depended on the duration of the congestion and the pollutant. For example, a 30 min day(-1) travel delay was determined to account for 21+/-12% of current exposure to benzene and 14+/-8% of PM(2.5) exposure. The time allocation shifts and the dynamic approach to TAPs improve estimates of exposure impacts from congestion and other recurring events.
Highway travel time estimation with data fusion
Soriguera Martí, Francesc
2016-01-01
This monograph presents a simple, innovative approach for the measurement and short-term prediction of highway travel times based on the fusion of inductive loop detector and toll ticket data. The methodology is generic and not technologically captive, allowing it to be easily generalized for other equivalent types of data. The book shows how Bayesian analysis can be used to obtain fused estimates that are more reliable than the original inputs, overcoming some of the drawbacks of travel-time estimations based on unique data sources. The developed methodology adds value and obtains the maximum (in terms of travel time estimation) from the available data, without recurrent and costly requirements for additional data. The application of the algorithms to empirical testing in the AP-7 toll highway in Barcelona proves that it is possible to develop an accurate real-time, travel-time information system on closed-toll highways with the existing surveillance equipment, suggesting that highway operators might provide...
Time Delay Estimation Algoritms for Echo Cancellation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kirill Sakhnov
2011-01-01
Full Text Available The following case study describes how to eliminate echo in a VoIP network using delay estimation algorithms. It is known that echo with long transmission delays becomes more noticeable to users. Thus, time delay estimation, as a part of echo cancellation, is an important topic during transmission of voice signals over packetswitching telecommunication systems. An echo delay problem associated with IP-based transport networks is discussed in the following text. The paper introduces the comparative study of time delay estimation algorithm, used for estimation of the true time delay between two speech signals. Experimental results of MATLab simulations that describe the performance of several methods based on cross-correlation, normalized crosscorrelation and generalized cross-correlation are also presented in the paper.
Combining the boundary shift integral and tensor-based morphometry for brain atrophy estimation
Michalkiewicz, Mateusz; Pai, Akshay; Leung, Kelvin K.; Sommer, Stefan; Darkner, Sune; Sørensen, Lauge; Sporring, Jon; Nielsen, Mads
2016-03-01
Brain atrophy from structural magnetic resonance images (MRIs) is widely used as an imaging surrogate marker for Alzheimers disease. Their utility has been limited due to the large degree of variance and subsequently high sample size estimates. The only consistent and reasonably powerful atrophy estimation methods has been the boundary shift integral (BSI). In this paper, we first propose a tensor-based morphometry (TBM) method to measure voxel-wise atrophy that we combine with BSI. The combined model decreases the sample size estimates significantly when compared to BSI and TBM alone.
Peña, Carlos; Espeland, Marianne
2015-01-01
The species rich butterfly family Nymphalidae has been used to study evolutionary interactions between plants and insects. Theories of insect-hostplant dynamics predict accelerated diversification due to key innovations. In evolutionary biology, analysis of maximum credibility trees in the software MEDUSA (modelling evolutionary diversity using stepwise AIC) is a popular method for estimation of shifts in diversification rates. We investigated whether phylogenetic uncertainty can produce different results by extending the method across a random sample of trees from the posterior distribution of a Bayesian run. Using the MultiMEDUSA approach, we found that phylogenetic uncertainty greatly affects diversification rate estimates. Different trees produced diversification rates ranging from high values to almost zero for the same clade, and both significant rate increase and decrease in some clades. Only four out of 18 significant shifts found on the maximum clade credibility tree were consistent across most of the sampled trees. Among these, we found accelerated diversification for Ithomiini butterflies. We used the binary speciation and extinction model (BiSSE) and found that a hostplant shift to Solanaceae is correlated with increased net diversification rates in Ithomiini, congruent with the diffuse cospeciation hypothesis. Our results show that taking phylogenetic uncertainty into account when estimating net diversification rate shifts is of great importance, as very different results can be obtained when using the maximum clade credibility tree and other trees from the posterior distribution. PMID:25830910
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carlos Peña
Full Text Available The species rich butterfly family Nymphalidae has been used to study evolutionary interactions between plants and insects. Theories of insect-hostplant dynamics predict accelerated diversification due to key innovations. In evolutionary biology, analysis of maximum credibility trees in the software MEDUSA (modelling evolutionary diversity using stepwise AIC is a popular method for estimation of shifts in diversification rates. We investigated whether phylogenetic uncertainty can produce different results by extending the method across a random sample of trees from the posterior distribution of a Bayesian run. Using the MultiMEDUSA approach, we found that phylogenetic uncertainty greatly affects diversification rate estimates. Different trees produced diversification rates ranging from high values to almost zero for the same clade, and both significant rate increase and decrease in some clades. Only four out of 18 significant shifts found on the maximum clade credibility tree were consistent across most of the sampled trees. Among these, we found accelerated diversification for Ithomiini butterflies. We used the binary speciation and extinction model (BiSSE and found that a hostplant shift to Solanaceae is correlated with increased net diversification rates in Ithomiini, congruent with the diffuse cospeciation hypothesis. Our results show that taking phylogenetic uncertainty into account when estimating net diversification rate shifts is of great importance, as very different results can be obtained when using the maximum clade credibility tree and other trees from the posterior distribution.
2-D blood vector velocity estimation using a phase shift estimator
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Udesen, Jesper
are presented. Here the TO method is tested both in simulations using the Field II program and in flow phantom experiments using the RASMUS scanner. Both simulations and flow phantom experiments indicate that the TO method can estimate the 2-D vector velocity with an acceptable low bias and standard deviation...... velocity estimation is discussed. The TO method is introduced, and the basic theory behind the method is explained. This includes the creation of the acoustic fields, beamforming, echo-canceling and the velocity estimator. In the second part of the thesis the eight papers produced during this PhD project...... when the angle between the blood and the ultrasound beam is above $50^\\circ$. Furthermore, the TO method is tested in-vivo where the scannings are performed by skilled sonographers. The in-vivo scannings resulted in a sequence of 2-D vector CFM images which showed 2-D flow patterns in the bifurcation...
Consequences of Secondary Calibrations on Divergence Time Estimates.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
John J Schenk
Full Text Available Secondary calibrations (calibrations based on the results of previous molecular dating studies are commonly applied in divergence time analyses in groups that lack fossil data; however, the consequences of applying secondary calibrations in a relaxed-clock approach are not fully understood. I tested whether applying the posterior estimate from a primary study as a prior distribution in a secondary study results in consistent age and uncertainty estimates. I compared age estimates from simulations with 100 randomly replicated secondary trees. On average, the 95% credible intervals of node ages for secondary estimates were significantly younger and narrower than primary estimates. The primary and secondary age estimates were significantly different in 97% of the replicates after Bonferroni corrections. Greater error in magnitude was associated with deeper than shallower nodes, but the opposite was found when standardized by median node age, and a significant positive relationship was determined between the number of tips/age of secondary trees and the total amount of error. When two secondary calibrated nodes were analyzed, estimates remained significantly different, and although the minimum and median estimates were associated with less error, maximum age estimates and credible interval widths had greater error. The shape of the prior also influenced error, in which applying a normal, rather than uniform, prior distribution resulted in greater error. Secondary calibrations, in summary, lead to a false impression of precision and the distribution of age estimates shift away from those that would be inferred by the primary analysis. These results suggest that secondary calibrations should not be applied as the only source of calibration in divergence time analyses that test time-dependent hypotheses until the additional error associated with secondary calibrations is more properly modeled to take into account increased uncertainty in age estimates.
NOTE ON TRAVEL TIME SHIFTS DUE TO AMPLITUDE MODULATION IN TIME-DISTANCE HELIOSEISMOLOGY MEASUREMENTS
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nigam, R.; Kosovichev, A. G.
2010-01-01
Correct interpretation of acoustic travel times measured by time-distance helioseismology is essential to get an accurate understanding of the solar properties that are inferred from them. It has long been observed that sunspots suppress p-mode amplitude, but its implications on travel times have not been fully investigated so far. It has been found in test measurements using a 'masking' procedure, in which the solar Doppler signal in a localized quiet region of the Sun is artificially suppressed by a spatial function, and using numerical simulations that the amplitude modulations in combination with the phase-speed filtering may cause systematic shifts of acoustic travel times. To understand the properties of this procedure, we derive an analytical expression for the cross-covariance of a signal that has been modulated locally by a spatial function that has azimuthal symmetry and then filtered by a phase-speed filter typically used in time-distance helioseismology. Comparing this expression to the Gabor wavelet fitting formula without this effect, we find that there is a shift in the travel times that is introduced by the amplitude modulation. The analytical model presented in this paper can be useful also for interpretation of travel time measurements for the non-uniform distribution of oscillation amplitude due to observational effects.
Villano, Michelangelo; Papathanassiou, Konstantinos P.
2011-03-01
The estimation of the local differential shift between synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images has proven to be an effective technique for monitoring glacier surface motion. As images acquired over glaciers by short wavelength SAR systems, such as TerraSAR-X, often suffer from a lack of coherence, image features have to be exploited for the shift estimation (feature-tracking).The present paper addresses feature-tracking with special attention to the feasibility requirements and the achievable accuracy of the shift estimation. In particular, the dependence of the performance on image characteristics, such as texture parameters, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and resolution, as well as on processing techniques (despeckling, normalised cross-correlation versus maximum likelihood estimation) is analysed by means of Monte-Carlo simulations. TerraSAR-X data acquired over the Helheim glacier, Greenland, and the Aletsch glacier, Switzerland, have been processed to validate the simulation results.Feature-tracking can benefit of the availability of fully-polarimetric data. As some image characteristics, in fact, are polarisation-dependent, the selection of an optimum polarisation leads to improved performance. Furthermore, fully-polarimetric SAR images can be despeckled without degrading the resolution, so that additional (smaller-scale) features can be exploited.
Study on the Control Strategy of Shifting Time Involving Multigroup Clutches
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhen Zhu
2016-01-01
Full Text Available This paper focuses on the control strategy of shifting time involving multigroup clutches for a hydromechanical continuously variable transmission (HMCVT. The dynamic analyses of mathematical models are presented in this paper, and the simulation models are used to study the control strategy of HMCVT. Simulations are performed in Simulation X platform to investigate the shifting time of clutches under different operating conditions. On this basis, simulation analysis and test verification of two typical conditions, which play the decisive roles for the shifting quality, are carried out. The results show that there are differences in the shifting time of the two typical conditions. In the shifting process from the negative transmission of hydromechanical ranges to the positive transmission of hydromechanical ranges, the control strategy based on the shifting time is switching the clutches of shifting mechanism firstly and then disengaging a group of clutches of planetary gear mechanism and engaging another group of the clutches of planetary gear mechanism lastly. In the shifting process from the hydraulic range to the hydromechanical range, the control strategy based on the shifting time is switching the clutches of hydraulic shifting mechanism and planetary gear mechanism at first and then engaging the clutch of shifting mechanism.
Maximum likelihood window for time delay estimation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Young Sup; Yoon, Dong Jin; Kim, Chi Yup
2004-01-01
Time delay estimation for the detection of leak location in underground pipelines is critically important. Because the exact leak location depends upon the precision of the time delay between sensor signals due to leak noise and the speed of elastic waves, the research on the estimation of time delay has been one of the key issues in leak lovating with the time arrival difference method. In this study, an optimal Maximum Likelihood window is considered to obtain a better estimation of the time delay. This method has been proved in experiments, which can provide much clearer and more precise peaks in cross-correlation functions of leak signals. The leak location error has been less than 1 % of the distance between sensors, for example the error was not greater than 3 m for 300 m long underground pipelines. Apart from the experiment, an intensive theoretical analysis in terms of signal processing has been described. The improved leak locating with the suggested method is due to the windowing effect in frequency domain, which offers a weighting in significant frequencies.
Postnova, Svetlana; Robinson, Peter A.; Postnov, Dmitry D.
2013-01-01
Shift work has become an integral part of our life with almost 20% of the population being involved in different shift schedules in developed countries. However, the atypical work times, especially the night shifts, are associated with reduced quality and quantity of sleep that leads to increase of sleepiness often culminating in accidents. It has been demonstrated that shift workers’ sleepiness can be improved by a proper scheduling of light exposure and optimizing shifts timing. Here, an integrated physiologically-based model of sleep-wake cycles is used to predict adaptation to shift work in different light conditions and for different shift start times for a schedule of four consecutive days of work. The integrated model combines a model of the ascending arousal system in the brain that controls the sleep-wake switch and a human circadian pacemaker model. To validate the application of the integrated model and demonstrate its utility, its dynamics are adjusted to achieve a fit to published experimental results showing adaptation of night shift workers (n = 8) in conditions of either bright or regular lighting. Further, the model is used to predict the shift workers’ adaptation to the same shift schedule, but for conditions not considered in the experiment. The model demonstrates that the intensity of shift light can be reduced fourfold from that used in the experiment and still produce good adaptation to night work. The model predicts that sleepiness of the workers during night shifts on a protocol with either bright or regular lighting can be significantly improved by starting the shift earlier in the night, e.g.; at 21∶00 instead of 00∶00. Finally, the study predicts that people of the same chronotype, i.e. with identical sleep times in normal conditions, can have drastically different responses to shift work depending on their intrinsic circadian and homeostatic parameters. PMID:23308206
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jiangong Zhu
2017-01-01
Full Text Available An impedance-based temperature estimation method is investigated considering the electrochemical non-equilibrium with short-term relaxation time for facilitating the vehicular application. Generally, sufficient relaxation time is required for battery electrochemical equilibrium before the impedance measurement. A detailed experiment is performed to investigate the regularity of the battery impedance in short-term relaxation time after switch-off current excitation, which indicates that the impedance can be measured and also has systematical decrement with the relaxation time growth. Based on the discussion of impedance variation in electrochemical perspective, as well as the monotonic relationship between impedance phase shift and battery internal temperature in the electrochemical equilibrium state, an exponential equation that accounts for both measured phase shift and relaxation time is established to correct the measuring deviation caused by electrochemical non-equilibrium. Then, a multivariate linear equation coupled with ambient temperature is derived considering the temperature gradients between the active part and battery surface. Equations stated above are all identified with the embedded thermocouple experimentally. In conclusion, the temperature estimation method can be a valuable alternative for temperature monitoring during cell operating, and serve the functionality as an efficient implementation in battery thermal management system for electric vehicles (EVs and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Linz, D.; Heberlein, T.
1984-03-01
The present study is an attempt to determine if the beliefs which underly the formation of an obligation to shift electricity use among household consumers also contribute to maintenance of the obligation over time. Utility customer beliefs about and obligation toward shifting electricity use in their households from on-peak to off-peak times were examined in 1977, when the customers had no behavioral experience with electricity shifting. In 1979, after two years of experience with shifting appliance use from on-peak to off-peak times, customers were again surveyed and the same variables measured. The results indicated that the formation of a feeling of obligation to shift electricity in 1977 use was marginally dependent on other beliefs. By 1979, these variables were completely supplanted by the subjects' self-perception of their shifting behavior. While cognitive variables are important in the initial formation of a personal obligation to engage in shifting electricity use, the perpetuation of a feeling of obligation to shift over a period of years depends on perception of how often electricity shifting was undertaken and how much electricity had been shifted from on- to off-peak times.
Pollinator effectiveness varies with experimental shifts in flowering time.
Rafferty, Nicole E; Ives, Anthony R
2012-04-01
The earlier flowering times exhibited by many plant species are a conspicuous sign of climate change. Altered phenologies have caused concern that species could suffer population declines if they flower at times when effective pollinators are unavailable. For two perennial wildflowers, Tradescantia ohiensis and Asclepias incarnata, we used an experimental approach to explore how changing phenology affects the taxonomic composition of the pollinator assemblage and the effectiveness of individual pollinator taxa. After finding in the previous year that fruit set varied with flowering time, we manipulated flowering onset in greenhouses, placed plants in the field over the span of five weeks, and measured pollinator effectiveness as the number of seeds produced after a single visit to a flower. The average effectiveness of pollinators and the expected rates of pollination success were lower for plants of both species flowering earlier than for plants flowering at historical times, suggesting there could be reproductive costs to earlier flowering. Whereas for A. incarnata, differences in average seed set among weeks were due primarily to changes in the composition of the pollinator assemblage, the differences for T. ohiensis were driven by the combined effects of compositional changes and increases over time in the effectiveness of some pollinator taxa. Both species face the possibility of temporal mismatch between the availability of the most effective pollinators and the onset of flowering, and changes in the effectiveness of individual pollinator taxa through time may add an unexpected element to the reproductive consequences of such mismatches.
Parametric estimation of time varying baselines in airborne interferometric SAR
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mohr, Johan Jacob; Madsen, Søren Nørvang
1996-01-01
A method for estimation of time varying spatial baselines in airborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is described. The range and azimuth distortions between two images acquired with a non-linear baseline are derived. A parametric model of the baseline is then, in a least square...... sense, estimated from image shifts obtained by cross correlation of numerous small patches throughout the image. The method has been applied to airborne EMISAR imagery from the 1995 campaign over the Storstrommen Glacier in North East Greenland conducted by the Danish Center for Remote Sensing. This has...... reduced the baseline uncertainties from several meters to the centimeter level in a 36 km scene. Though developed for airborne SAR the method can easily be adopted to satellite data...
Ecological consequences of shifting the timing of burning tallgrass prairie.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E Gene Towne
Full Text Available In the Kansas Flint Hills, grassland burning is conducted during a relatively narrow window because management recommendations for the past 40 years have been to burn only in late spring. Widespread prescribed burning within this restricted time frame frequently creates smoke management issues downwind. A potential remedy for the concentrated smoke production in late spring is to expand burning to times earlier in the year. Yet, previous research suggested that burning in winter or early spring reduces plant productivity and cattle weight gain while increasing the proportion of undesirable plant species. In order to better understand the ecological consequences of burning at different times of the year, plant production and species abundance were measured for 20 years on ungrazed watersheds burned annually in autumn, winter, or spring. We found that there were no significant differences in total grass production among the burns on either upland or lowland topographic positions, although spring burned watersheds had higher grass culm production and lower forb biomass than autumn and winter burned watersheds. Burning in autumn or winter broadened the window of grass productivity response to precipitation, which reduces susceptibility to mid-season drought. Burning in autumn or winter also increased the phenological range of species by promoting cool-season graminoids without a concomitant decrease in warm-season grasses, potentially widening the seasonal window of high-quality forage. Incorporating autumn and winter burns into the overall portfolio of tallgrass prairie management should increase the flexibility in managing grasslands, promote biodiversity, and minimize air quality issues caused by en masse late-spring burning with little negative consequences for cattle production.
REAL TIME SPEED ESTIMATION FROM MONOCULAR VIDEO
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. S. Temiz
2012-07-01
Full Text Available In this paper, detailed studies have been performed for developing a real time system to be used for surveillance of the traffic flow by using monocular video cameras to find speeds of the vehicles for secure travelling are presented. We assume that the studied road segment is planar and straight, the camera is tilted downward a bridge and the length of one line segment in the image is known. In order to estimate the speed of a moving vehicle from a video camera, rectification of video images is performed to eliminate the perspective effects and then the interest region namely the ROI is determined for tracking the vehicles. Velocity vectors of a sufficient number of reference points are identified on the image of the vehicle from each video frame. For this purpose sufficient number of points from the vehicle is selected, and these points must be accurately tracked on at least two successive video frames. In the second step, by using the displacement vectors of the tracked points and passed time, the velocity vectors of those points are computed. Computed velocity vectors are defined in the video image coordinate system and displacement vectors are measured by the means of pixel units. Then the magnitudes of the computed vectors in the image space are transformed to the object space to find the absolute values of these magnitudes. The accuracy of the estimated speed is approximately ±1 – 2 km/h. In order to solve the real time speed estimation problem, the authors have written a software system in C++ programming language. This software system has been used for all of the computations and test applications.
When Mothers' Work Matters for Youths' Daily Time Use: Implications of Evening and Weekend Shifts.
Lee, Soomi; Davis, Kelly D; McHale, Susan M; Kelly, Erin L; Kossek, Ellen Ernst; Crouter, Ann C
2017-08-01
Drawing upon the work-home resources model, this study examined the implications of mothers' evening and weekend shifts for youths' time with mother, alone, and hanging out with peers unsupervised, with attention to both the amount and day-to-day consistency of time use. Data came from 173 mothers who worked in the long-term care industry and their youths who provided daily diaries. Multilevel modeling revealed that youths whose mothers worked more evening shifts on average spent less time with their mothers compared to youths whose mothers worked fewer evening shifts. Youths whose mothers worked more weekend shifts, however, spent more time with their mothers and exhibited less consistency in their time in all three activity domains compared to youths whose mothers worked fewer weekend shifts. Girls, not boys, spent less time alone on days when mothers worked weekend shifts than on days with standard shifts. Older but not younger adolescents spent more time hanging out with friends on evening and weekend shift days, and their unsupervised peer time was less consistent across days when mothers worked more evening shifts. These effects adjusted for sociodemographic and day characteristics, including school day, number of children in the household, mothers' marital status and work hours, and time with fathers. Our results illuminate the importance of the timing and day of mothers' work for youths' daily activities. Future interventions should consider how to increase mothers' resources to deal with constraints on parenting due to their work during nonstandard hours, with attention to child gender and age.
The effects of shift work and time of day on fine motor control during handwriting.
Hölzle, Patricia; Hermsdörfer, Joachim; Vetter, Céline
2014-01-01
Handwriting is an elaborate and highly automatised skill relying on fine motor control. In laboratory conditions handwriting kinematics are modulated by the time of day. This study investigated handwriting kinematics in a rotational shift system and assessed whether similar time of day fluctuations at the work place can be observed. Handwriting performance was measured in two tasks of different levels of complexity in 34 shift workers across morning (6:00-14:00), evening (14:00-22:00) and night shifts (22:00-6:00). Participants were tested during all three shifts in 2-h intervals with mobile testing devices. We calculated average velocity, script size and writing frequency to quantify handwriting kinematics and fluency. Average velocity and script size were significantly affected by the shift work schedule with the worst performance during morning shifts and the best performance during evening shifts. Our data are of high economic relevance as fine motor skills are indispensable for accurate and effective production at the work place. Handwriting is one of the most complex fine motor skills in humans, which is frequently performed in daily life. In this study, we tested handwriting repeatedly at the work place in a rotational shift system. We found slower handwriting velocity and reduced script size during morning shifts.
Travel Time Estimation on Urban Street Segment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jelena Kajalić
2018-02-01
Full Text Available Level of service (LOS is used as the main indicator of transport quality on urban roads and it is estimated based on the travel speed. The main objective of this study is to determine which of the existing models for travel speed calculation is most suitable for local conditions. The study uses actual data gathered in travel time survey on urban streets, recorded by applying second by second GPS data. The survey is limited to traffic flow in saturated conditions. The RMSE method (Root Mean Square Error is used for research results comparison with relevant models: Akcelik, HCM (Highway Capacity Manual, Singapore model and modified BPR (the Bureau of Public Roads function (Dowling - Skabardonis. The lowest deviation in local conditions for urban streets with standardized intersection distance (400-500 m is demonstrated by Akcelik model. However, for streets with lower signal density (<1 signal/km the correlation between speed and degree of saturation is best presented by HCM and Singapore model. According to test results, Akcelik model was adopted for travel speed estimation which can be the basis for determining the level of service in urban streets with standardized intersection distance and coordinated signal timing under local conditions.
Estimated time of arrival and debiasing the time saving bias.
Eriksson, Gabriella; Patten, Christopher J D; Svenson, Ola; Eriksson, Lars
2015-01-01
The time saving bias predicts that the time saved when increasing speed from a high speed is overestimated, and underestimated when increasing speed from a slow speed. In a questionnaire, time saving judgements were investigated when information of estimated time to arrival was provided. In an active driving task, an alternative meter indicating the inverted speed was used to debias judgements. The simulated task was to first drive a distance at a given speed, and then drive the same distance again at the speed the driver judged was required to gain exactly 3 min in travel time compared with the first drive. A control group performed the same task with a speedometer and saved less than the targeted 3 min when increasing speed from a high speed, and more than 3 min when increasing from a low speed. Participants in the alternative meter condition were closer to the target. The two studies corroborate a time saving bias and show that biased intuitive judgements can be debiased by displaying the inverted speed. Practitioner Summary: Previous studies have shown a cognitive bias in judgements of the time saved by increasing speed. This simulator study aims to improve driver judgements by introducing a speedometer indicating the inverted speed in active driving. The results show that the bias can be reduced by presenting the inverted speed and this finding can be used when designing in-car information systems.
Thompson, Brennan J; Stock, Matt S; Banuelas, Victoria K; Akalonu, Chibuzo C
2016-07-01
The aim of this study was to determine the impact of a demanding work schedule involving long, cumulative work shifts on response time and balance-related performance outcomes and to evaluate the prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders between day and night shift working nurses. A questionnaire was used to identify the prevalence of past (12-month) and current (7-day) musculoskeletal disorders. Nurses worked three 12-hour work shifts in a 4-day period. Reaction time and balance tests were conducted before and after the work period. The work period induced impairments for reaction time, errors on reaction time tasks, and balance performance, independent of shift type. Musculoskeletal symptom prevalence was high in workers of both work shifts. Compressed work shifts caused performance-based fatigue in nurses. Reaction time and balance tests may be sensitive fatigue identification markers in nurses.
Time evolution, Lamb shift, and emission spectra of spontaneous emission of two identical atoms
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Dawei; Li Zhenghong; Zheng Hang; Zhu Shiyao
2010-01-01
A unitary transformation method is used to investigate the dynamic evolution of two multilevel atoms, in the basis of symmetric and antisymmetric states, with one atom being initially prepared in the first excited state and the other in the ground state. The unitary transformation guarantees that our calculations are based on the ground state of the atom-field system and the self-energy is subtracted at the beginning. The total Lamb shifts of the symmetric and antisymmetric states are divided into transformed shift and dynamic shift. The transformed shift is due to emitting and reabsorbing of virtual photons, by a single atom (nondynamic single atomic shift) and between the two atoms (quasi-static shift). The dynamic shift is due to the emitting and reabsorbing of real photons, by a single atom (dynamic single atomic shift) and between the two atoms (dynamic interatomic shift). The emitting and reabsorbing of virtual and real photons between the two atoms result in the interatomic shift, which does not exist for the one-atom case. The spectra at the long-time limit are calculated. If the distance between the two atoms is shorter than or comparable to the wavelength, the strong coupling between the two atoms splits the spectrum into two peaks, one from the symmetric state and the other from the antisymmetric state. The origin of the red or blue shifts for the symmetric and antisymmetric states mainly lies in the negative or positive interaction energy between the two atoms. In the investigation of the short time evolution, we find the modification of the effective density of states by the interaction between two atoms can modulate the quantum Zeno and quantum anti-Zeno effects in the decays of the symmetric and antisymmetric states.
Baraer, M.; Chesnokova, A.; Huh, K. I.; Laperriere-Robillard, T.
2017-12-01
Saint-Elias Mountains host numerous cryospheric systems such as glaciers, seasonal and perennial snow cover, permafrost, aufeis, and different forms of buried ice. Those systems are very sensitive to climate changes and exhibit ongoing reduction in extent and/or changes in formation/ablation times. Because they highly influence the hydrological regimes of rivers, cryospheric changes raise concerns about consequences for regional water resources and ecosystems. The present study combines historical data analysis and hydrological modeling in order to estimate how cryospheric changes impact hydrological regimes at eight watersheds of different glacier cover (0- 30%) in the southwest Yukon. Methods combine traditional hydrograph analysis techniques and more advance techniques such as Fast Fourier Transform filters used to isolate significant trends in discharge properties from noise or climatic oscillations. Measured trends in discharge variables are connected to cryospheric changes by using a water balance / peak water model (Baraer et al., 2012), here adapted to the main cryospheric systems that characterize the southwest Yukon.Results show three distinct hydrological regimes for (1) non glacierized, (2) glacierized, and (3) major lakes hosting catchments. The studied glacierized catchments have not passed the "peak water" yet and still exhibit increases in yearly and late summer discharges and a decrease in runoff variability. All watersheds show an increase in winter discharge and a snowmelt-driven shift of yearly peak discharge toward earlier in the season. The study suggests that, in a couple of decades, water resources and dependent ecosystems will face the combined effects of (A) a shift in the contribution trend from declining perennial cryospheric systems and (B) continuing alteration of the contribution from the seasonal cryospheric systems.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luca Giugno
2007-05-01
Full Text Available This paper considers the problem of optimizing the burst format of packet transmission to perform enhanced-accuracy estimation of Doppler-shift and Doppler-rate of the carrier of the received signal, due to relative motion between the transmitter and the receiver. Two novel burst formats that minimize the Doppler-shift and the Doppler-rate CramÃƒÂ©r-Rao bounds (CRBs for the joint estimation of carrier phase/Doppler-shift and of the Doppler-rate are derived, and a data-aided (DA estimation algorithm suitable for each optimal burst format is presented. Performance of the newly derived estimators is evaluated by analysis and by simulation, showing that such algorithms attain their relevant CRBs with very low complexity, so that they can be directly embedded into new-generation digital modems for satellite communications at low SNR.
Estimating time-varying RSA to examine psychophysiological linkage of marital dyads.
Gates, Kathleen M; Gatzke-Kopp, Lisa M; Sandsten, Maria; Blandon, Alysia Y
2015-08-01
One of the primary tenets of polyvagal theory dictates that parasympathetic influence on heart rate, often estimated by respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), shifts rapidly in response to changing environmental demands. The current standard analytic approach of aggregating RSA estimates across time to arrive at one value fails to capture this dynamic property within individuals. By utilizing recent methodological developments that enable precise RSA estimates at smaller time intervals, we demonstrate the utility of computing time-varying RSA for assessing psychophysiological linkage (or synchrony) in husband-wife dyads using time-locked data collected in a naturalistic setting. © 2015 Society for Psychophysiological Research.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dubois, Daniel M.
2000-01-01
This paper is a continuation of our preceding paper dealing with computational derivation of the Klein-Gordon quantum relativist equation and the Schroedinger quantum equation with forward and backward space-time shifts. The first part introduces forward and backward derivatives for discrete and continuous systems. Generalized complex discrete and continuous derivatives are deduced. The second part deduces the Klein-Gordon equation from the space-time complex continuous derivatives. These derivatives take into account forward-backward space-time shifts related to an internal phase velocity u. The internal group velocity v is related to the speed of light u.v=c 2 and to the external group and phase velocities u.v=v g .v p . Without time shift, the Schroedinger equation is deduced, with a supplementary term, which could represent a reference potential. The third part deduces the Quantum Relativist Klein-Gordon equation for a particle in an electromagnetic field
Lacefield, James C; Pilkington, Wayne C; Waag, Robert C
2004-12-01
The effects of aberration, time-shift compensation, and spatial compounding on the discrimination of positive-contrast lesions in ultrasound b-scan images are investigated using a two-dimensional (2-D) array system and tissue-mimicking phantoms. Images were acquired within an 8.8 x 12-mm2 field of view centered on one of four statistically similar 4-mm diameter spherical lesions. Each lesion was imaged in four planes offset by successive 45 degree rotations about the central scan line. Images of the lesions were acquired using conventional geometric focusing through a water path, geometric focusing through a 35-mm thick distributed aberration phantom, and time-shift compensated transmit and receive focusing through the aberration phantom. The views of each lesion were averaged to form sets of water path, aberrated, and time-shift compensated 4:1 compound images and 16:1 compound images. The contrast ratio and detectability index of each image were computed to assess lesion differentiation. In the presence of aberration representative of breast or abdominal wall tissue, time-shift compensation provided statistically significant improvements of contrast ratio but did not consistently affect the detectability index, and spatial compounding significantly increased the detectability index but did not alter the contrast ratio. Time-shift compensation and spatial compounding thus provide complementary benefits to lesion detection.
The value of load shifting. An estimate for Norway using the EMPS model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Doorman, Gerard; Wolfgang, Ove
2006-05-01
An attempt is made to estimate the value of Load Shifting (LS) in the Norwegian system, using the EMPS model. A thorough update of the demand side model and cost estimates used in the model was done as a preparation for the project, and the report gives a comprehensive description of the demand models used. The LS measure that is analyzed is moving 600 MW demand in Norway from peak to lower demand hours during the day. The value of this was estimated both in a simplified manner (based on simulated price differences between these periods), and by simulations with the EMPS model and a subsequent calculation of the socio-economic surplus. Neither approaches showed any significant value. The results do not necessarily mean that the value in reality is zero - there are a number of limitations in the model which make it difficult to estimate the real value, like the representation of wind generation, demand variability, outages, exchange prices with continental Europe, flexibility of hydro and thermal generation, reserves and elasticity of demand in the short run. It was verified through sensitivity calculations that especially increasing reserve requirements and increasing the variability of wind generation increased price differences and therefore the value of LS. A number of improvements in the EMPS model and data are proposed to obtain a more suitable simulation model for this kind of analyses: 1) modeling of reserves, 2) representation of wind variability, 3) thermal generation models, 4) differentiation between long and short term price elasticity, 5) review of interconnection capacities, 6) use of quadratic losses and the 7) representation of more stochastic factors like e.g. outages in the simulations. Although the model at present clearly has its limitations with respect to estimating the value of LS, it appears that price differences between spot prices in the actual hours in reality are small. Comparison with Nord Pool spot prices for the years 2003
Suppression and Narrative Time Shifts in Adults with Right-Hemisphere Brain Damage
Scharp, Victoria L.; Tompkins, Connie A.
2013-01-01
Purpose: This study examined the functioning of a central comprehension mechanism, suppression, in adults with right-hemisphere damage (RHD) while they processed narratives that cued a shift in time frame. In normal language comprehension, mental activation of concepts from a prior time frame is suppressed. The (re)activation of information…
Covariance matrix estimation for stationary time series
Xiao, Han; Wu, Wei Biao
2011-01-01
We obtain a sharp convergence rate for banded covariance matrix estimates of stationary processes. A precise order of magnitude is derived for spectral radius of sample covariance matrices. We also consider a thresholded covariance matrix estimator that can better characterize sparsity if the true covariance matrix is sparse. As our main tool, we implement Toeplitz [Math. Ann. 70 (1911) 351–376] idea and relate eigenvalues of covariance matrices to the spectral densities or Fourier transforms...
Dedicated Shift Wrap-up Time Does Not Improve Resident Sign-out Volume or Efficiency.
Jeanmonod, Rebecca K; Brook, Christopher; Winther, Mark; Pathak, Soma; Boyd, Molly
2010-02-01
Sign-out (SO) is a challenge to the emergency physician. Some training programs have instituted overlapping 9-hour shifts. The residents see patients for eight hours, and have one hour of wrap-up time. This hour helps them complete patient care, leaving fewer patients to sign-out. We examined whether this strategy impacts SO burden. This is a retrospective review of patients evaluated by emergency medicine (EM) residents working 9-hour (eight hours of patient care, one hour wrap-up time) and 12-hour shifts (12 hours patient care, no reserved time for wrap-up). Data were collected by reviewing the clinical tracker. A patient was assigned to the resident who initiated care and dictated the chart. SO was defined as any patient in the ED without disposition at change of shift. Patient turn-around-time (TAT) was also recorded. One-hundred sixty-one postgraduate-year-one resident (PGY1), 264 postgraduate-year-two resident (PGY2), and 193 postgraduate-year-three resident (PGY3) shifts were included. PGY1s signed out 1.9 patients per 12-hour shift. PGY2s signed out 2.3 patients on 12-hour shifts and 1.8 patients on 9-hour shifts. PGY3s signed out 2.1 patients on 12-hour shifts and 2.0 patients on 9-hour shifts. When we controlled for patients seen per hour, SO burden was constant by class regardless of shift length, with PGY2s signing out 18% of patients seen compared to 15% for PGY3s. PGY1s signed out 18% of patients seen. TAT for patients seen by PGY1s and PGY2s was similar, at 189 and 187 minutes, respectively. TAT for patients seen by PGY3s was significantly less at 175 minutes. The additional hour devoted to wrapping up patients in the ED had no affect on SO burden. The SO burden represented a fixed percentage of the total number of patients seen by the residents. PGY3s sign-out a smaller percentage of patients seen compared to other classes, and have faster TATs.
Dedicated Shift Wrap-up Time Does Not Improve Resident Sign-out Volume or Efficiency
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jeanmonod, Rebecca K
2010-02-01
Full Text Available Objectives: Sign-out (SO is a challenge to the emergency physician. Some training programs have instituted overlapping 9-hour shifts. The residents see patients for eight hours, and have one hour of wrap-up time. This hour helps them complete patient care, leaving fewer patients to sign-out. We examined whether this strategy impacts SO burden.Methods: This is a retrospective review of patients evaluated by emergency medicine (EM residents working 9-hour (eight hours of patient care, one hour wrap-up time and 12-hour shifts (12 hours patient care, no reserved time for wrap-up. Data were collected by reviewing the clinical tracker. A patient was assigned to the resident who initiated care and dictated the chart. SO was defined as any patient in the ED without disposition at change of shift. Patient turn-around-time (TAT was also recorded.Results: One-hundred sixty-one postgraduate-year-one resident (PGY1, 264 postgraduate-year-two resident (PGY2, and 193 postgraduate-year-three resident (PGY3 shifts were included. PGY1s signed out 1.9 patients per 12-hour shift. PGY2s signed out 2.3 patients on 12-hour shifts and 1.8 patients on 9-hour shifts. PGY3s signed out 2.1 patients on 12-hour shifts and 2.0 patients on 9-hour shifts. When we controlled for patients seen per hour, SO burden was constant by class regardless of shift length, with PGY2s signing out 18% of patients seen compared to 15% for PGY3s. PGY1s signed out 18% of patients seen. TAT for patients seen by PGY1s and PGY2s was similar, at 189 and 187 minutes, respectively. TAT for patients seen by PGY3s was significantly less at 175 minutes.Conclusion: The additional hour devoted to wrapping up patients in the ED had no affect on SO burden. The SO burden represented a fixed percentage of the total number of patients seen by the residents. PGY3s sign-out a smaller percentage of patients seen compared to other classes, and have faster TATs. [West J Emerg Med. 2010; 11(1:35-39].
Moving attention - Evidence for time-invariant shifts of visual selective attention
Remington, R.; Pierce, L.
1984-01-01
Two experiments measured the time to shift spatial selective attention across the visual field to targets 2 or 10 deg from central fixation. A central arrow cued the most likely target location. The direction of attention was inferred from reaction times to expected, unexpected, and neutral locations. The development of a spatial attentional set with time was examined by presenting target probes at varying times after the cue. There were no effects of distance on the time course of the attentional set. Reaction times for far locations were slower than for near, but the effects of attention were evident by 150 msec in both cases. Spatial attention does not shift with a characteristic, fixed velocity. Rather, velocity is proportional to distance, resulting in a movement time that is invariant over the distances tested.
Dasgupta, Purnendu K
2008-12-05
Resolution of overlapped chromatographic peaks is generally accomplished by modeling the peaks as Gaussian or modified Gaussian functions. It is possible, even preferable, to use actual single analyte input responses for this purpose and a nonlinear least squares minimization routine such as that provided by Microsoft Excel Solver can then provide the resolution. In practice, the quality of the results obtained varies greatly due to small shifts in retention time. I show here that such deconvolution can be considerably improved if one or more of the response arrays are iteratively shifted in time.
An improved Q estimation approach: the weighted centroid frequency shift method
Li, Jingnan; Wang, Shangxu; Yang, Dengfeng; Dong, Chunhui; Tao, Yonghui; Zhou, Yatao
2016-06-01
Seismic wave propagation in subsurface media suffers from absorption, which can be quantified by the quality factor Q. Accurate estimation of the Q factor is of great importance for the resolution enhancement of seismic data, precise imaging and interpretation, and reservoir prediction and characterization. The centroid frequency shift method (CFS) is currently one of the most commonly used Q estimation methods. However, for seismic data that contain noise, the accuracy and stability of Q extracted using CFS depend on the choice of frequency band. In order to reduce the influence of frequency band choices and obtain Q with greater precision and robustness, we present an improved CFS Q measurement approach—the weighted CFS method (WCFS), which incorporates a Gaussian weighting coefficient into the calculation procedure of the conventional CFS. The basic idea is to enhance the proportion of advantageous frequencies in the amplitude spectrum and reduce the weight of disadvantageous frequencies. In this novel method, we first construct a Gauss function using the centroid frequency and variance of the reference wavelet. Then we employ it as the weighting coefficient for the amplitude spectrum of the original signal. Finally, the conventional CFS is adopted for the weighted amplitude spectrum to extract the Q factor. Numerical tests of noise-free synthetic data demonstrate that the WCFS is feasible and efficient, and produces more accurate results than the conventional CFS. Tests for noisy synthetic data indicate that the new method has better anti-noise capability than the CFS. The application to field vertical seismic profile (VSP) data further demonstrates its validity5.
Shift level analysis of cable yarder availability, utilization, and productive time
James R. Sherar; Chris B. LeDoux
1989-01-01
Decision makers, loggers, managers, and planners need to understand and have methods for estimating utilization and productive time of cable logging systems. In making an accurate prediction of how much area and volume a machine will log per unit time and the associated cable yarding costs, a reliable estimate of the availability, utilization, and productive time of...
Wermter, Felizitas C; Mitschke, Nico; Bock, Christian; Dreher, Wolfgang
2017-12-01
Temperature dependent chemical shifts of important brain metabolites measured by localised 1 H MRS were investigated to test how the use of incorrect prior knowledge on chemical shifts impairs the quantification of metabolite concentrations. Phantom measurements on solutions containing 11 metabolites were performed on a 7 T scanner between 1 and 43 °C. The temperature dependence of the chemical shift differences was fitted by a linear model. Spectra were simulated for different temperatures and analysed by the AQSES program (jMRUI 5.2) using model functions with chemical shift values for 37 °C. Large differences in the temperature dependence of the chemical shift differences were determined with a maximum slope of about ±7.5 × 10 -4 ppm/K. For 32-40 °C, only minor quantification errors resulted from using incorrect chemical shifts, with the exception of Cr and PCr. For 1-10 °C considerable quantification errors occurred if the temperature dependence of the chemical shifts was neglected. If 1 H MRS measurements are not performed at 37 °C, for which the published chemical shift values have been determined, the temperature dependence of chemical shifts should be considered to avoid systematic quantification errors, particularly for measurements on animal models at lower temperatures.
System and method for traffic signal timing estimation
Dumazert, Julien; Claudel, Christian G.
2015-01-01
A method and system for estimating traffic signals. The method and system can include constructing trajectories of probe vehicles from GPS data emitted by the probe vehicles, estimating traffic signal cycles, combining the estimates, and computing the traffic signal timing by maximizing a scoring function based on the estimates. Estimating traffic signal cycles can be based on transition times of the probe vehicles starting after a traffic signal turns green.
System and method for traffic signal timing estimation
Dumazert, Julien
2015-12-30
A method and system for estimating traffic signals. The method and system can include constructing trajectories of probe vehicles from GPS data emitted by the probe vehicles, estimating traffic signal cycles, combining the estimates, and computing the traffic signal timing by maximizing a scoring function based on the estimates. Estimating traffic signal cycles can be based on transition times of the probe vehicles starting after a traffic signal turns green.
Efficient forward propagation of time-sequences in convolutional neural networks using Deep Shifting
K.L. Groenland (Koen); S.M. Bohte (Sander)
2016-01-01
textabstractWhen a Convolutional Neural Network is used for on-the-fly evaluation of continuously updating time-sequences, many redundant convolution operations are performed. We propose the method of Deep Shifting, which remembers previously calculated results of convolution operations in order
Parents' Family Time and Work Schedules: The Split-Shift Schedule in Spain
Gracia, P.; Kalmijn, M.
2016-01-01
This study used data on couples from the 2003 Spanish Time Use Survey (N = 1,416) to analyze how work schedules are associated with family, couple, parent–child, and non-family leisure activities. Spain is clearly an interesting case for the institutionalized split-shift schedule, a long lunch break
Jardak, Seifallah; Ahmed, Sajid; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim
2014-01-01
In multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) radar, to estimate the reflection coefficient, spatial location, and Doppler shift of a target, maximum-likelihood (ML) estimation yields the best performance. For this problem, the ML estimation requires
Lag space estimation in time series modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Goutte, Cyril
1997-01-01
The purpose of this article is to investigate some techniques for finding the relevant lag-space, i.e. input information, for time series modelling. This is an important aspect of time series modelling, as it conditions the design of the model through the regressor vector a.k.a. the input layer...
Time-Distance Helioseismology: Noise Estimation
Gizon, L.; Birch, A. C.
2004-10-01
As in global helioseismology, the dominant source of noise in time-distance helioseismology measurements is realization noise due to the stochastic nature of the excitation mechanism of solar oscillations. Characterizing noise is important for the interpretation and inversion of time-distance measurements. In this paper we introduce a robust definition of travel time that can be applied to very noisy data. We then derive a simple model for the full covariance matrix of the travel-time measurements. This model depends only on the expectation value of the filtered power spectrum and assumes that solar oscillations are stationary and homogeneous on the solar surface. The validity of the model is confirmed through comparison with SOHO MDI measurements in a quiet-Sun region. We show that the correlation length of the noise in the travel times is about half the dominant wavelength of the filtered power spectrum. We also show that the signal-to-noise ratio in quiet-Sun travel-time maps increases roughly as the square root of the observation time and is at maximum for a distance near half the length scale of supergranulation.
Progressive Red Shifts in the Late-Time Spectra of Type Ia Supernovae
Black, Christine; Fesen, Robert; Parrent, Jerod
2017-01-01
We examine the evolution of late-time, optical nebular features of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) using a sample consisting of 160 spectra of 27 normal SNe Ia taken from the literature as well as unpublished spectra of SN 2008Q and ASASSN-14lp. Particular attention is given to nebular features between 4000-6000 Ang in terms of temporal changes in width and central wavelength. Analysis of the prominent late-time 4700 Ang feature shows a progressive central wavelength shift from ˜4600 Ang to longer wavelengths out to at least day +300 for our entire sample. We find no evidence for the feature’s red-ward shift slowing or halting at an [Fe III] blend centroid ˜4700 Ang as has been proposed. Two weaker adjacent features at around 4850 and 5000 Ang exhibit similar red shifts to that of the 4700 Ang feature. We conclude that the ubiquitous red shift of these common late-time SN Ia spectral features is not mainly due to a decrease in line velocities of forbidden Fe emissions, but the result of decreasing line velocities and opacity of permitted Fe absorption lines.
Multidimensional scaling of musical time estimations.
Cocenas-Silva, Raquel; Bueno, José Lino Oliveira; Molin, Paul; Bigand, Emmanuel
2011-06-01
The aim of this study was to identify the psycho-musical factors that govern time evaluation in Western music from baroque, classic, romantic, and modern repertoires. The excerpts were previously found to represent variability in musical properties and to induce four main categories of emotions. 48 participants (musicians and nonmusicians) freely listened to 16 musical excerpts (lasting 20 sec. each) and grouped those that seemed to have the same duration. Then, participants associated each group of excerpts to one of a set of sine wave tones varying in duration from 16 to 24 sec. Multidimensional scaling analysis generated a two-dimensional solution for these time judgments. Musical excerpts with high arousal produced an overestimation of time, and affective valence had little influence on time perception. The duration was also overestimated when tempo and loudness were higher, and to a lesser extent, timbre density. In contrast, musical tension had little influence.
Freeway travel-time estimation and forecasting.
2012-09-01
This project presents a microsimulation-based framework for generating short-term forecasts of travel time on freeway corridors. The microsimulation model that is developed (GTsim), replicates freeway capacity drop and relaxation phenomena critical f...
Time estimation in mild Alzheimer's disease patients
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nichelli Paolo
2009-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Time information processing relies on memory, which greatly supports the operations of hypothetical internal timekeepers. Scalar Expectancy Theory (SET postulates the existence of a memory component that is functionally separated from an internal clock and other processing stages. SET has devised several experimental procedures to map these cognitive stages onto cerebral regions and neurotransmitter systems. One of these, the time bisection procedure, has provided support for a dissociation between the clock stage, controlled by dopaminergic systems, and the memory stage, mainly supported by cholinergic neuronal networks. This study aimed at linking the specific memory processes predicted by SET to brain mechanisms, by submitting time bisection tasks to patients with probable Alzheimer's disease (AD, that are known to present substantial degeneration of the fronto-temporal regions underpinning memory. Methods Twelve mild AD patients were required to make temporal judgments about intervals either ranging from 100 to 600 ms (short time bisection task or from 1000 to 3000 ms (long time bisection task. Their performance was compared with that of a group of aged-matched control participants and a group of young control subjects. Results Long time bisection scores of AD patients were not significantly different from those of the two control groups. In contrast, AD patients showed increased variability (as indexed by increased WR values in timing millisecond durations and a generalized inconsistency of responses over the same interval in both the short and long bisection tasks. A similar, though milder, decreased millisecond interval sensitivity was found for elderly subjects. Conclusion The present results, that are consistent with those of previous timing studies in AD, are interpreted within the SET framework as not selectively dependent on working or reference memory disruptions but as possibly due to distortions in different
The clock that times us : Electromagnetic signatures of time estimation
Kononowicz, Tadeusz Władysław
2015-01-01
As time is a fundamental dimension of our existence, perceiving the flow of time is an ubiquitous experience of our everyday life. This so-called sense of time is utilized in our everyday activities, for example, when we expect some events to happen, but it also prevents us from taking a morning
Algorithms for Brownian first-passage-time estimation
Adib, Artur B.
2009-09-01
A class of algorithms in discrete space and continuous time for Brownian first-passage-time estimation is considered. A simple algorithm is derived that yields exact mean first-passage times (MFPTs) for linear potentials in one dimension, regardless of the lattice spacing. When applied to nonlinear potentials and/or higher spatial dimensions, numerical evidence suggests that this algorithm yields MFPT estimates that either outperform or rival Langevin-based (discrete time and continuous space) estimates.
Freeway travel-time estimation and forecasting.
2013-03-01
Real-time traffic information provided by GDOT has proven invaluable for commuters in the : Georgia freeway network. The increasing number of Variable Message Signs, addition of : services such as My-NaviGAtor, NaviGAtor-to-go etc. and the advancemen...
Current neurosurgical trainees' perception of the European Working Time Directive and shift work.
Tait, M J; Fellows, G A; Pushpananthan, S; Sergides, Y; Papadopoulos, M C; Bell, B A
2008-02-01
The introduction of the shift system in response to the European Working Time Directive has had an enormous impact on the running of neurosurgical units in the UK. This study seeks to establish what provisions are currently in place for out of hours cover and what has been the effect of the introduction of shifts in three main areas: patient safety, training and 'work/life balance'. The on-call registrar at each UK neurosurgical unit was contacted by telephone. Data regarding current emergency provision were sought. Registrars who had worked both on-calls and the shift system during their career as a neurosurgical registrar were asked to make a comparison. Data were collected from all 33 UK units. Twenty-two still use a traditional 24-h on-call system. Twenty-one on-call rotas were classed as non-resident although 12/21 of those officially on non-resident rotas were in fact resident whilst on call. Twenty-two registrars had worked both systems as a neurosurgical registrar. Twenty-one (95.45%) felt that traditional on-calls gave better clinical exposure. Twenty-one (95.45%) felt that on-calls allowed the provision of better patient care. Nineteen (86.36%) felt that on-calls were safer. Thirteen (59.09%) reported that they were more tired when doing shift work than on-calls. Fourteen (63.63%) found that the on-call system gives more useful spare time and more time to deal with family commitments. Current neurosurgery registrars feel the shift system is less safe, harmful to training and worse in terms of work/life balance. More than one-third of units are claiming to have non-resident on-call systems in order to appear compliant with EWTD when registrars are in fact resident.
General anesthesia alters time perception by phase shifting the circadian clock.
Cheeseman, James F; Winnebeck, Eva C; Millar, Craig D; Kirkland, Lisa S; Sleigh, James; Goodwin, Mark; Pawley, Matt D M; Bloch, Guy; Lehmann, Konstantin; Menzel, Randolf; Warman, Guy R
2012-05-01
Following general anesthesia, people are often confused about the time of day and experience sleep disruption and fatigue. It has been hypothesized that these symptoms may be caused by general anesthesia affecting the circadian clock. The circadian clock is fundamental to our well-being because it regulates almost all aspects of our daily biochemistry, physiology, and behavior. Here, we investigated the effects of the most common general anesthetic, isoflurane, on time perception and the circadian clock using the honeybee (Apis mellifera) as a model. A 6-h daytime anesthetic systematically altered the time-compensated sun compass orientation of the bees, with a mean anticlockwise shift in vanishing bearing of 87° in the Southern Hemisphere and a clockwise shift in flight direction of 58° in the Northern Hemisphere. Using the same 6-h anesthetic treatment, time-trained bees showed a delay in the start of foraging of 3.3 h, and whole-hive locomotor-activity rhythms were delayed by an average of 4.3 h. We show that these effects are all attributable to a phase delay in the core molecular clockwork. mRNA oscillations of the central clock genes cryptochrome-m and period were delayed by 4.9 and 4.3 h, respectively. However, this effect is dependent on the time of day of administration, as is common for clock effects, and nighttime anesthesia did not shift the clock. Taken together, our results suggest that general anesthesia during the day causes a persistent and marked shift of the clock effectively inducing "jet lag" and causing impaired time perception. Managing this effect in humans is likely to help expedite postoperative recovery.
Estimating bus passenger waiting times from incomplete bus arrivals data
McLeod, F.N.
2007-01-01
This paper considers the problem of estimating bus passenger waiting times at bus stops using incomplete bus arrivals data. This is of importance to bus operators and regulators as passenger waiting time is a key performance measure. Average waiting times are usually estimated from bus headways, that is, time gaps between buses. It is both time-consuming and expensive to measure bus arrival times manually so methods using automatic vehicle location systems are attractive; however, these syste...
Estimating High-Dimensional Time Series Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Medeiros, Marcelo C.; Mendes, Eduardo F.
We study the asymptotic properties of the Adaptive LASSO (adaLASSO) in sparse, high-dimensional, linear time-series models. We assume both the number of covariates in the model and candidate variables can increase with the number of observations and the number of candidate variables is, possibly......, larger than the number of observations. We show the adaLASSO consistently chooses the relevant variables as the number of observations increases (model selection consistency), and has the oracle property, even when the errors are non-Gaussian and conditionally heteroskedastic. A simulation study shows...
Inferring Saving in Training Time From Effect Size Estimates
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Burright, Burke
2000-01-01
.... Students' time saving represents a major potential benefit of using them. This paper fills a methodology gap in estimating the students' timesaving benefit of asynchronous training technologies...
Suitability of the echo-time-shift method as laboratory standard for thermal ultrasound dosimetry
Fuhrmann, Tina; Georg, Olga; Haller, Julian; Jenderka, Klaus-Vitold
2017-03-01
Ultrasound therapy is a promising, non-invasive application with potential to significantly improve cancer therapies like surgery, viro- or immunotherapy. This therapy needs faster, cheaper and more easy-to-handle quality assurance tools for therapy devices as well as possibilities to verify treatment plans and for dosimetry. This limits comparability and safety of treatments. Accurate spatial and temporal temperature maps could be used to overcome these shortcomings. In this contribution first results of suitability and accuracy investigations of the echo-time-shift method for two-dimensional temperature mapping during and after sonication are presented. The analysis methods used to calculate time-shifts were a discrete frame-to-frame and a discrete frame-to-base-frame algorithm as well as a sigmoid fit for temperature calculation. In the future accuracy could be significantly enhanced by using continuous methods for time-shift calculation. Further improvements can be achieved by improving filtering algorithms and interpolation of sampled diagnostic ultrasound data. It might be a comparatively accurate, fast and affordable method for laboratory and clinical quality control.
Real Time Seismic Loss Estimation in Italy
Goretti, A.; Sabetta, F.
2009-04-01
By more than 15 years the Seismic Risk Office is able to perform a real-time evaluation of the earthquake potential loss in any part of Italy. Once the epicentre and the magnitude of the earthquake are made available by the National Institute for Geophysiscs and Volca-nology, the model, based on the Italian Geographic Information Sys-tems, is able to evaluate the extent of the damaged area and the consequences on the built environment. In recent years the model has been significantly improved with new methodologies able to conditioning the uncertainties using observa-tions coming from the fields during the first days after the event. However it is reputed that the main challenges in loss analysis are related to the input data, more than to methodologies. Unlike the ur-ban scenario, where the missing data can be collected with enough accuracy, the country-wise analysis requires the use of existing data bases, often collected for other purposed than seismic scenario evaluation, and hence in some way lacking of completeness and homogeneity. Soil properties, building inventory and population dis-tribution are the main input data that are to be known in any site of the whole Italian territory. To this end the National Census on Popu-lation and Dwellings has provided information on the residential building types and the population that lives in that building types. The critical buildings, such as Hospital, Fire Brigade Stations, Schools, are not included in the inventory, since the national plan for seismic risk assessment of critical buildings is still under way. The choice of a proper soil motion parameter, its attenuation with distance and the building type fragility are important ingredients of the model as well. The presentation will focus on the above mentioned issues, highlight-ing the different data sets used and their accuracy, and comparing the model, input data and results when geographical areas with dif-ferent extent are considered: from the urban scenarios
Ftouni, Suzanne; Sletten, Tracey L.; Nicholas, Christian L.; Kennaway, David J.; Lockley, Steven W.; Rajaratnam, Shantha M.W.
2015-01-01
Study Objectives: The study examined the relationship between the circadian rhythm of 6-sulphatoxymelatonin (aMT6s) and ocular measures of sleepiness and neurobehavioral performance in shift workers undergoing a simulated night shift. Methods: Twenty-two shift workers (mean age 33.4, SD 11.8 years) were tested at approximately the beginning (20:00) and the end (05:55) of a simulated night shift in the laboratory. At the time point corresponding to the end of the simulated shift, 14 participants were classified as being within range of 6-sulphatoxymelatonin (aMT6s) acrophase— defined as 3 hours before or after aMT6s peak—and 8 were classified as outside aMT6s acrophase range. Participants completed the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS) and the auditory psychomotor vigilance task (aPVT). Waking electroencephalography (EEG) was recorded and infrared reflectance oculography was used to collect ocular measures of sleepiness: positive and negative amplitude/velocity ratio (PosAVR, NegAVR), mean blink total duration (BTD), the percentage of eye closure (%TEC), and a composite score of sleepiness levels (Johns Drowsiness Scale; JDS). Results: Participants who were tested within aMT6s acrophase range displayed higher levels of sleepiness on ocular measures (%TEC, BTD, PosAVR, JDS), objective sleepiness (EEG delta power frequency band), subjective ratings of sleepiness, and neurobehavioral performance, compared to those who were outside aMT6s acrophase range. Conclusions: The study demonstrated that objective ocular measures of sleepiness are sensitive to circadian rhythm misalignment in shift workers. Citation: Ftouni S, Sletten TL, Nicholas CL, Kennaway DJ, Lockley SW, Rajaratnam SM. Ocular measures of sleepiness are increased in night shift workers undergoing a simulated night shift near the peak time of the 6-sulfatoxymelatonin rhythm. J Clin Sleep Med 2015;11(10):1131–1141. PMID:26094925
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ji-Ae Yoon
Full Text Available In modern society, growing numbers of people are engaged in various forms of shift works or trans-meridian travels. Such circadian misalignment is known to disturb endogenous diurnal rhythms, which may lead to harmful physiological consequences including metabolic syndrome, obesity, cancer, cardiovascular disorders, and gastric disorders as well as other physical and mental disorders. However, the precise mechanism(s underlying these changes are yet unclear. The present work, therefore examined the effects of 6 h advance or delay of usual meal time on diurnal rhythmicities in home cage activity (HCA, body temperature (BT, blood metabolic markers, glucose homeostasis, and expression of genes that are involved in cholesterol homeostasis by feeding young adult male mice in a time-restrictive manner. Delay of meal time caused locomotive hyperactivity in a significant portion (42% of subjects, while 6 h advance caused a torpor-like symptom during the late scotophase. Accordingly, daily rhythms of blood glucose and triglyceride were differentially affected by time-restrictive feeding regimen with concurrent metabolic alterations. Along with these physiological changes, time-restrictive feeding also influenced the circadian expression patterns of low density lipoprotein receptor (LDLR as well as most LDLR regulatory factors. Strikingly, chronic advance of meal time induced insulin resistance, while chronic delay significantly elevated blood glucose levels. Taken together, our findings indicate that persistent shifts in usual meal time impact the diurnal rhythms of carbohydrate and lipid metabolisms in addition to HCA and BT, thereby posing critical implications for the health and diseases of shift workers.
Wenger, Nathalie; Méan, Marie; Castioni, Julien; Marques-Vidal, Pedro; Waeber, Gérard; Garnier, Antoine
2017-04-18
Little current evidence documents how internal medicine residents spend their time at work, particularly with regard to the proportions of time spent in direct patient care versus using computers. To describe how residents allocate their time during day and evening hospital shifts. Time and motion study. Internal medicine residency at a university hospital in Switzerland, May to July 2015. 36 internal medicine residents with an average of 29 months of postgraduate training. Trained observers recorded the residents' activities using a tablet-based application. Twenty-two activities were categorized as directly related to patients, indirectly related to patients, communication, academic, nonmedical tasks, and transition. In addition, the presence of a patient or colleague and use of a computer or telephone during each activity was recorded. Residents were observed for a total of 696.7 hours. Day shifts lasted 11.6 hours (1.6 hours more than scheduled). During these shifts, activities indirectly related to patients accounted for 52.4% of the time, and activities directly related to patients accounted for 28.0%. Residents spent an average of 1.7 hours with patients, 5.2 hours using computers, and 13 minutes doing both. Time spent using a computer was scattered throughout the day, with the heaviest use after 6:00 p.m. The study involved a small sample from 1 institution. At this Swiss teaching hospital, internal medicine residents spent more time at work than scheduled. Activities indirectly related to patients predominated, and about half the workday was spent using a computer. Information Technology Department and Department of Internal Medicine of Lausanne University Hospital.
Local time distribution of the SSC-associated HF-Doppler frequency shifts
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kikuchi, T.; Sugiuchi, H.; Ishimine, T.
1985-01-01
The HF-Doppler frequency shift observed at the storm's sudden commencement is composed of a frequency increase (+) and decrease (-), and classified into four types, SCF(+ -), SCF(- +), SCF(+) and SCF(-). Since the latter two types are special cases of the former two types, two different kinds of electrical field exist in the F region and cause the ExB drift motion of plasma. HUANG (1976) interpreted the frequency increase of SCF(+ -) as due to the westward induction electric field proportional to delta H/ delta t and the succeeding frequency decrease due to the eastward conduction electric field which produces ionospheric currents responsible for the magnetic increase on the ground. In spite of his success in interpreting the SCF(+ -), some other interpretations are needed for the explanation of the whole set of SCF's, particularly SCF(- +). Local time distributions of the SCF's are derived from 41 SCF's which are observed on the HF standard signal (JJY) as received in Okinawa (path length =1600 km) and Kokubunji (60 km). It is shown that the SCF(+ -) appears mainly during the day, whereas the SCF(- +) is observed during the night. The results indicate that the preliminary frequency shift (+) of SCF(+ -) and (-) of SCF(- +) is caused by a westward electric field in the dayside hemisphere, while by an eastward electric field in the nightside hemisphere. The main frequency shift (-) of SCF(+ -) and (+) of SCF(- +) is caused by the reversed electric field. Consequently, the preliminary frequency shift is caused by the dusk-to-dawn electric field, while the main frequency shift by the dawn-to-dusk electric field
Local time distribution of the SSC-associated HF-Doppler frequency shifts
Kikuchi, T.; Sugiuchi, H.; Ishimine, T.
1985-01-01
The HF-Doppler frequency shift observed at the storm's sudden commencement is composed of a frequency increase (+) and decrease (-), and classified into four types, SCF(+ -), SCF(- +), SCF(+) and SCF(-). Since the latter two types are special cases of the former two types, two different kinds of electrical field exist in the F region and cause the ExB drift motion of plasma. HUANG (1976) interpreted the frequency increase of SCF(+ -) as due to the westward induction electric field proportional to delta H/ delta t and the succeeding frequency decrease due to the eastward conduction electric field which produces ionospheric currents responsible for the magnetic increase on the ground. In spite of his success in interpreting the SCF(+ -), some other interpretations are needed for the explanation of the whole set of SCF's, particularly SCF(- +). Local time distributions of the SCF's are derived from 41 SCF's which are observed on the HF standard signal (JJY) as received in Okinawa (path length =1600 km) and Kokubunji (60 km). It is shown that the SCF(+ -) appears mainly during the day, whereas the SCF(- +) is observed during the night. The results indicate that the preliminary frequency shift (+) of SCF(+ -) and (-) of SCF(- +) is caused by a westward electric field in the dayside hemisphere, while by an eastward electric field in the nightside hemisphere. The main frequency shift (-) of SCF(+ -) and (+) of SCF(- +) is caused by the reversed electric field. Consequently, the preliminary frequency shift is caused by the dusk-to-dawn electric field, while the main frequency shift by the dawn-to-dusk electric field.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vickroy, S.C.
1986-01-01
This paper presents the results of a study to estimate human performance and error rate under several amounts of overtime and different shifts without the use of human subjects. Ten chronobiology, fatigue, and shift scheduling experts were administered a questionnaire to rate the effects that several shifts and overtime amounts might have on the performance of individuals working under their constraints. The data from the ratings were transformed to generate performance shaping factors used for sensitivity analyses on three previously published probabilistic risk assessments. This procedure was performed to determine the effect that different shift schedules and amounts of overtime would have on overall plant performance. The results of the analysis suggest that the risk due to human errors caused by the shift scheduling and overtime could increase the risk of accidents at a nuclear power plant caused by humans by up to a factor of five. This could increase the chance for an accident at a nuclear power plant by a factor of about three
Spin-lattice relaxation times and knight shift in InSb and InAs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Braun, P.; Grande, S.
1976-01-01
For a dominant contact interaction between nuclei and conduction electrons the relaxation rate is deduced. The extreme cases of degenerate and non-degenerate semiconductors are separately discussed. At strong degeneracy the product of the Knight shift and relaxation time gives the Korringa relation for metals. Measurements of the NMR spin-lattice relaxation times of 115 InSb and 115 InAs were made between 4.2 and 300 K for strongly degenerated samples. The different relaxation mechanisms are discussed and the experimental and theoretical results are compared. (author)
Nonparametric volatility density estimation for discrete time models
Es, van Bert; Spreij, P.J.C.; Zanten, van J.H.
2005-01-01
We consider discrete time models for asset prices with a stationary volatility process. We aim at estimating the multivariate density of this process at a set of consecutive time instants. A Fourier-type deconvolution kernel density estimator based on the logarithm of the squared process is proposed
Beyens, Ine; Nathanson, Amy I
2018-01-11
This study examined the association between electronic media use and sleep among preschoolers, using a national sample of 402 mothers of 3- to 5-year-olds. Participants completed an online survey assessing preschoolers' electronic media use, bedtime and wake time, sleep time, napping behaviors, and sleep consolidation. Results showed that heavier television use and tablet use, both overall and in the evening, were associated with later bedtimes and later wake times, but not with fewer hours of sleep, providing evidence for a time-shifting process. In addition, heavier daily television use and evening smartphone use were associated with increased daytime napping. Moreover, heavier daily television use, daily and evening smartphone use, and evening tablet use were associated with poorer sleep consolidation, suggesting less mature sleep patterns. These findings indicate that media effects on the timing of sleep and the proportion of sleep that occurs at night are important to consider when assessing the health risks of electronic media on children.
The moderating effect of work-time influence on the effect of shift work: a prospective cohort study
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nabe-Nielsen, Kirsten; Garde, Anne Helene; Albertsen, Karen
2011-01-01
To investigate whether work-time influence moderated the effect of shift work on psychological well-being measured as vitality, mental health, somatic stress symptoms, and disturbed sleep.......To investigate whether work-time influence moderated the effect of shift work on psychological well-being measured as vitality, mental health, somatic stress symptoms, and disturbed sleep....
Jardak, Seifallah
2014-10-01
In multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) radar, to estimate the reflection coefficient, spatial location, and Doppler shift of a target, maximum-likelihood (ML) estimation yields the best performance. For this problem, the ML estimation requires the joint estimation of spatial location and Doppler shift, which is a two dimensional search problem. Therefore, the computational complexity of ML estimation is prohibitively high. In this work, to estimate the parameters of a target, a reduced complexity optimum performance algorithm is proposed, which allow two dimensional fast Fourier transform to jointly estimate the spatial location and Doppler shift. To asses the performances of the proposed estimators, the Cramér-Rao-lower-bound (CRLB) is derived. Simulation results show that the mean square estimation error of the proposed estimators achieve the CRLB. © 2014 IEEE.
A Dynamic Travel Time Estimation Model Based on Connected Vehicles
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daxin Tian
2015-01-01
Full Text Available With advances in connected vehicle technology, dynamic vehicle route guidance models gradually become indispensable equipment for drivers. Traditional route guidance models are designed to direct a vehicle along the shortest path from the origin to the destination without considering the dynamic traffic information. In this paper a dynamic travel time estimation model is presented which can collect and distribute traffic data based on the connected vehicles. To estimate the real-time travel time more accurately, a road link dynamic dividing algorithm is proposed. The efficiency of the model is confirmed by simulations, and the experiment results prove the effectiveness of the travel time estimation method.
Accuracy of Travel Time Estimation using Bluetooth Technology
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Araghi, Bahar Namaki; Skoven Pedersen, Kristian; Tørholm Christensen, Lars
2012-01-01
Short-term travel time information plays a critical role in Advanced Traffic Information Systems (ATIS) and Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS). In this context, the need for accurate and reliable travel time information sources is becoming increasingly important. Bluetooth Technology (BT......) has been used as a relatively new cost-effective source of travel time estimation. However, due to low sampling rate of BT compared to other sensor technologies, existence of outliers may significantly affect the accuracy and reliability of the travel time estimates obtained using BT. In this study......, the concept of outliers and corresponding impacts on travel time accuracy are discussed. Four different estimators named Min-BT, Max-BT, Med-BT and Avg-BT with different outlier detection logic are presented in this paper. These methods are used to estimate travel times using a BT derived dataset. In order...
Fuzzy logic estimator of rotor time constant in induction motors
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Alminoja, J. [Tampere University of Technology (Finland). Control Engineering Laboratory; Koivo, H. [Helsinki University of Technology, Otaniemi (Finland). Control Engineering Laboratory
1997-12-31
Vector control of AC machines is a well-known and widely used technique in induction machine control. It offers an exact method for speed control of induction motors, but it is also sensitive to the changes in machine parameters. E.g. rotor time constant has a strong dependence on temperature. In this paper a fuzzy logic estimator is developed, with which the rotor time constant can be estimated when the machine has a load. It is more simple than the estimators proposed in the literature. The fuzzy estimator is tested by simulation when step-wise abrupt changes and slow drifting occurs. (orig.) 7 refs.
Empirical Study of Travel Time Estimation and Reliability
Li, Ruimin; Chai, Huajun; Tang, Jin
2013-01-01
This paper explores the travel time distribution of different types of urban roads, the link and path average travel time, and variance estimation methods by analyzing the large-scale travel time dataset detected from automatic number plate readers installed throughout Beijing. The results show that the best-fitting travel time distribution for different road links in 15 min time intervals differs for different traffic congestion levels. The average travel time for all links on all days can b...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ju-Chi Liu
2016-01-01
Full Text Available A high efficient time-shift correlation algorithm was proposed to deal with the peak time uncertainty of P300 evoked potential for a P300-based brain-computer interface (BCI. The time-shift correlation series data were collected as the input nodes of an artificial neural network (ANN, and the classification of four LED visual stimuli was selected as the output node. Two operating modes, including fast-recognition mode (FM and accuracy-recognition mode (AM, were realized. The proposed BCI system was implemented on an embedded system for commanding an adult-size humanoid robot to evaluate the performance from investigating the ground truth trajectories of the humanoid robot. When the humanoid robot walked in a spacious area, the FM was used to control the robot with a higher information transfer rate (ITR. When the robot walked in a crowded area, the AM was used for high accuracy of recognition to reduce the risk of collision. The experimental results showed that, in 100 trials, the accuracy rate of FM was 87.8% and the average ITR was 52.73 bits/min. In addition, the accuracy rate was improved to 92% for the AM, and the average ITR decreased to 31.27 bits/min. due to strict recognition constraints.
Liu, Ju-Chi; Chou, Hung-Chyun; Chen, Chien-Hsiu; Lin, Yi-Tseng; Kuo, Chung-Hsien
2016-01-01
A high efficient time-shift correlation algorithm was proposed to deal with the peak time uncertainty of P300 evoked potential for a P300-based brain-computer interface (BCI). The time-shift correlation series data were collected as the input nodes of an artificial neural network (ANN), and the classification of four LED visual stimuli was selected as the output node. Two operating modes, including fast-recognition mode (FM) and accuracy-recognition mode (AM), were realized. The proposed BCI system was implemented on an embedded system for commanding an adult-size humanoid robot to evaluate the performance from investigating the ground truth trajectories of the humanoid robot. When the humanoid robot walked in a spacious area, the FM was used to control the robot with a higher information transfer rate (ITR). When the robot walked in a crowded area, the AM was used for high accuracy of recognition to reduce the risk of collision. The experimental results showed that, in 100 trials, the accuracy rate of FM was 87.8% and the average ITR was 52.73 bits/min. In addition, the accuracy rate was improved to 92% for the AM, and the average ITR decreased to 31.27 bits/min. due to strict recognition constraints.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Şuayip Yüzbaşı
2017-03-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we suggest a matrix method for obtaining the approximate solutions of the delay linear Fredholm integro-differential equations with constant coefficients using the shifted Legendre polynomials. The problem is considered with mixed conditions. Using the required matrix operations, the delay linear Fredholm integro-differential equation is transformed into a matrix equation. Additionally, error analysis for the method is presented using the residual function. Illustrative examples are given to demonstrate the efficiency of the method. The results obtained in this study are compared with the known results.
Mode choice endogeneity in value of travel time estimation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mabit, Stefan Lindhard; Fosgerau, Mogens
The current way to estimate value of travel time is to use a mode-specific sample and hence to estimate mode-specific value of travel times. This approach raises certain questions concerning how to generalise the values to a population. A problem would be if there is an uncontrolled sample...... selection mechanism. This is the case if there is correlation between mode choice and the value of travel time that is not controlled for by explanatory variables. What could confuse the estimated values is the difficulty to separate mode effects from user effect. An example would be the effect of income...... of travel time we use a stated choice dataset. These data include binary choice within mode for car and bus. The first approach is to use a probit model to model mode choice using instruments and then use this in the estimation of the value of travel time. The second approach is based on the use of a very...
Phase-shifting Real-time Holographic Microscopy applied in micro-structures surface analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brito, I V; Gesualdi, M R R; Muramatsu, M; Ricardo, J
2011-01-01
The microscopic real-time analysis of micro structured materials is of great importance in various domains of science and technology. For other hand, the holographic interferometry comprises a group of powerful optical methods for non-destructive testing in surface analysis. The holographic microscopy uses the holographic interferometric techniques to obtain quantitative intensity and phase information of the optical waves by microscopic systems. With the development of CCD cameras, computers (hardware and software), and new materials for holographic recording, these techniques can be used to replace the classical form of registration and became promising tools in surface analysis. In this work, we developed a prototype of Photorefractive and Digital Holographic Microscope for real-time analysis of micro-structured systems based on the phase-shifting real-time holographic interferometry techniques. Using this apparatus, we are made analysis of shapes and surfaces to obtain the phase maps and the 3D profiles of some samples.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Huang, C H; Hsieh, C H; Lee, J D; Huang, W C; Lee, S T; Wu, C T; Sun, Y N; Wu, Y T
2012-01-01
With the combined view on the physical space and the medical imaging data, augmented reality (AR) visualization can provide perceptive advantages during image-guided surgery (IGS). However, the imaging data are usually captured before surgery and might be different from the up-to-date one due to natural shift of soft tissues. This study presents an AR-enhanced IGS system which is capable to correct the movement of soft tissues from the pre-operative CT images by using intra-operative ultrasound images. First, with reconstructing 2-D free-hand ultrasound images to 3-D volume data, the system applies a Mutual-Information based registration algorithm to estimate the deformation between pre-operative and intra-operative ultrasound images. The estimated deformation transform describes the movement of soft tissues and is then applied to the pre-operative CT images which provide high-resolution anatomical information. As a result, the system thus displays the fusion of the corrected CT images or the real-time 2-D ultrasound images with the patient in the physical space through a head mounted display device, providing an immersive augmented-reality environment. For the performance validation of the proposed system, a brain phantom was utilized to simulate brain-shift scenario. Experimental results reveal that when the shift of an artificial tumor is from 5mm ∼ 12mm, the correction rates can be improved from 32% ∼ 45% to 87% ∼ 95% by using the proposed system.
Real-Time Head Pose Estimation on Mobile Platforms
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jianfeng Ren
2010-06-01
Full Text Available Many computer vision applications such as augmented reality require head pose estimation. As far as the real-time implementation of head pose estimation on relatively resource limited mobile platforms is concerned, it is required to satisfy real-time constraints while maintaining reasonable head pose estimation accuracy. The introduced head pose estimation approach in this paper is an attempt to meet this objective. The approach consists of the following components: Viola-Jones face detection, color-based face tracking using an online calibration procedure, and head pose estimation using Hu moment features and Fisher linear discriminant. Experimental results running on an actual mobile device are reported exhibiting both the real- time and accuracy aspects of the developed approach.
Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K
2017-01-01
BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...
Incidence of myocardial infarction with shifts to and from daylight savings time.
Jiddou, Monica R; Pica, Mark; Boura, Judy; Qu, Lihua; Franklin, Barry A
2013-03-01
Modulators of normal bodily functions such as the duration and quality of sleep might transiently influence cardiovascular risk. The transition to daylight savings time (DST) has been associated with a short-term increased incidence ratio (IR) of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The present retrospective study examined the IR of AMIs that presented to our hospitals the week after DST and after the autumn switch to standard time, October 2006 to April 2012, with specific reference to the AMI type. Our study population (n = 935 patients; 59% men, 41% women) was obtained from the electronic medical records of the Royal Oak and Troy campuses of the Beaumont Hospitals in Michigan. Overall, the frequency of AMI was similar in the spring and autumn, 463 (49.5%) and 472 (50.5%), respectively. The IR for the first week after the spring shift was 1.17 (95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.36). After the transition from DST in the autumn, the IR for the same period was lower, but not significantly different, 0.99 (95% confidence interval 0.85 to 1.16). Nevertheless, the greatest increase in AMI occurred on the first day (Sunday) after the spring shift to DST (1.71, 95% confidence interval 1.09 to 2.02; p <0.05). Also, a significantly greater incidence was found of non-ST-segment myocardial infarction after the transition to DST in the study group compared with that in the control group (p = 0.022). In conclusion, these data suggest that shifts to and from DST might transiently affect the incidence and type of acute cardiac events, albeit modestly. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Iterative PSF Estimation and Its Application to Shift Invariant and Variant Blur Reduction
Seung-Won Jung; Byeong-Doo Choi; Sung-Jea Ko
2009-01-01
Among image restoration approaches, image deconvolution has been considered a powerful solution. In image deconvolution, a point spread function (PSF), which describes the blur of the image, needs to be determined. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an iterative PSF estimation algorithm which is able to estimate an accurate PSF. In real-world motion-blurred images, a simple parametric model of the PSF fails when a camera moves in an arbitrary direction with an inconsistent speed during an e...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gregory, R.B.
1991-01-01
We have recently described modifications to the program CONTIN for the solution of Fredholm integral equations with convoluted kernels of the type that occur in the analysis of positron annihilation lifetime data. In this article, modifications to the program to correct for source terms in the sample and reference decay curves and for shifts in the position of the zero-time channel of the sample and reference data are described. Unwanted source components, expressed as a discrete sum of exponentials, may be removed from both the sample and reference data by modification of the sample data alone, without the need for direct knowledge of the instrument resolution function. Shifts in the position of the zero-time channel of up to half the channel width of the multichannel analyzer can be corrected. Analyses of computer-simulated test data indicate that the quality of the reconstructed annihilation rate probability density functions is improved by employing a refernce material with a short lifetime and indicate that reference materials which generate free positrons by quenching positronium formation (i.e. strong oxidizing agents) have lifetimes that are too long (400-450 ps) to provide reliable estimates of the lifetime parameters for the shortlived components with the methods described here. Well-annealed single crystals of metals with lifetimes less than 200 ps, such as molybdenum (123 ps) and aluminium (166 ps) do not introduce significant errors in estimates of the lifetime parameters and are to be preferred as reference materials. The performance of our modified version of CONTIN is illustrated by application to positron annihilation in polytetrafluoroethylene. (orig.)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tetsuro Yoshikawa
Full Text Available Determining the composition of a bird's diet and its seasonal shifts are fundamental for understanding the ecology and ecological functions of a species. Various methods have been used to estimate the dietary compositions of birds, which have their own advantages and disadvantages. In this study, we examined the possibility of using long-term volunteer monitoring data as the source of dietary information for 15 resident bird species in Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan. The data were collected from field observations reported by volunteers of regional naturalist groups. Based on these monitoring data, we calculated the monthly dietary composition of each bird species directly, and we also estimated unidentified items within the reported foraging episodes using Bayesian models that contained additional information regarding foraging locations. Next, to examine the validity of the estimated dietary compositions, we compared them with the dietary information for focal birds based on stomach analysis methods, collected from past literatures. The dietary trends estimated from the monitoring data were largely consistent with the general food habits determined from the previous studies of focal birds. Thus, the estimates based on the volunteer monitoring data successfully detected noticeable seasonal shifts in many of the birds from plant materials to animal diets during spring-summer. Comparisons with stomach analysis data supported the qualitative validity of the monitoring-based dietary information and the effectiveness of the Bayesian models for improving the estimates. This comparison suggests that one advantage of using monitoring data is its ability to detect dietary items such as fleshy fruits, flower nectar, and vertebrates. These results emphasize the potential importance of observation data collecting and mining by citizens, especially free descriptive observation data, for use in bird ecology studies.
Estimating Time-to-Collision with Retinitis Pigmentosa
Jones, Tim
2006-01-01
This article reports on the ability of observers who are sighted and those with low vision to make time-to-collision (TTC) estimations using video. The TTC estimations made by the observers with low vision were comparable to those made by the sighted observers, and both groups made underestimation errors that were similar to those that were…
Time Skew Estimator for Dual-Polarization QAM Transmitters
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Medeiros Diniz, Júlio César; Da Ros, Francesco; Jones, Rasmus Thomas
2017-01-01
A simple method for joint estimation of transmitter’s in-phase/quadrature and inter-polarization time skew is proposed and experimentally demonstrated. The method is based on clock tone extraction of a photodetected signal and genetic algorithm. The maximum estimation error was 0.5 ps....
Kasimanickam, R K; Kasimanickam, V R; Arangasamy, A; Kastelic, J P
2017-02-01
Mammalian sperm are exposed to a natural hypoosmotic environment during male-to-female reproductive tract transition; although this activates sperm motility in vivo, excessive swelling can harm sperm structure and function. Aquaporins (AQPs) is a family of membrane-channel proteins implicated in sperm osmoregulation. The objective was to determine associations among relative sperm volume shift, hypoosmotic swelling test (HOST), sperm aquaporin (AQP) 7 mRNA abundances, and sire conception rate (SCR; fertility estimate) in Holstein bulls at a commercial artificial insemination center. Three or four sires for each full point SCR score from -4 to +4 were included. Each SCR estimate for study bulls (N = 30) was based on > 500 services (mean ± SEM) of 725 ± 13 services/sire). Sperm from a single collection day (two ejaculates) from these commercial Holstein bulls were used. Relative mRNA expression of AQP7 in sperm was determined by polymerase chain reaction. Mean relative sperm volume shift and percentage of sperm reacted in a HOST (% HOST) were determined (400 sperm per bull) after incubating in isoosmotic (300 mOsm/kg) and hypoosmotic (100 mOsm/kg) solutions for 30 min. There was no correlation between %HOST and SCR (r = 0.28 P > 0.1). However, there was a positive correlation between relative sperm volume shift and SCR (r = 0.65, P 2) fertility sire groups. In conclusion, bulls with higher SCR had significantly greater AQP7 mRNA abundance in frozen-thawed sperm. This plausibly contributed to greater regulation of sperm volume shift, which apparently conferred protection from detrimental swelling and impaired functions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
SU-E-T-95: Delivery Time Estimator
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kantor, M; Balter, P; Ohrt, J
2014-01-01
Purpose: The development and testing of a tool for the inclusion of delivery time as a parameter in plan optimization. Methods: We developed an algorithm that estimates the time required for the machine and personnel movements required to deliver a treatment plan on a linear accelerator. We included dose rate, leaf motion, collimator motion, gantry motion, and couch motions (including time to enter the room to rotate the couch safely). Vault-specific parameters to account for time to enter and perform couch angle adjustments were also included. This algorithm works for static, step and shoot IMRT, and VMAT beams photon beams and for fixed electron beams. This was implemented as a script in our treatment planning system. We validated the estimator against actual recorded delivery time from our R and V system as well as recorded times from our IMRT QA delivery. Results: Data was collected (Figure 1) for 12 treatment plans by examining the R and V beam start times, and by manually timing the QA treatment for a reference, but the QA measurements were only significant to the nearest minute. The average difference between the estimated and R and V times was 15%, and 11% when excluding the major outliers. Outliers arose due to respiratory aides and gating techniques which could not be accounted for in the estimator. Conclusion: Non-mechanical factors such as the time a therapist needs to walk in and out of the room to adjust the couch needed to be fine-tuned and cycled back into the algorithm to improve the estimate. The algorithm has been demonstrated to provide reasonable and useful estimates for delivery time. This estimate has provided a useful additional input for clinical decision-making when comparing several potential radiation treatment options
Time and frequency characteristics of temporary threshold shifts caused by pure tone exposures
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ordoñez, Rodrigo Pizarro; Hammershøi, Dorte
2011-01-01
The time-frequency characteristics of Temporary Threshold Shifts (TTS) caused by pure tones were determined using the Békésy audiometric method with narrow-band noise of short duration as the probe stimuli. Two experiments were done using exposures of 3 min at 100 dB above threshold. In the first....... In the second experiment, the TTS recovery curve produced by a 1 kHz pure tone exposure was assessed at 1.5 kHz, at approximately 15 s intervals for the first 5 min and at regularly increasing intervals up to 45 min after the exposure. The results showed a maximum in the recovery around 2 min after the exposure....... The data gathered in these experiments were used to construct a mathematical model of TTS recovery. The model describes both the 1/2-octave shift and the 2 min bounce and it can be used in the comparison of temporary changes in auditory function, assessed at different times and frequencies....
Wang, Qian; Lu, Guangqi; Li, Xiaoyu; Zhang, Yichi; Yun, Zejian; Bian, Di
2018-01-01
To take advantage of the energy storage system (ESS) sufficiently, the factors that the service life of the distributed energy storage system (DESS) and the load should be considered when establishing optimization model. To reduce the complexity of the load shifting of DESS in the solution procedure, the loss coefficient and the equal capacity ratio distribution principle were adopted in this paper. Firstly, the model was established considering the constraint conditions of the cycles, depth, power of the charge-discharge of the ESS, the typical daily load curves, as well. Then, dynamic programming method was used to real-time solve the model in which the difference of power Δs, the real-time revised energy storage capacity Sk and the permission error of depth of charge-discharge were introduced to optimize the solution process. The simulation results show that the optimized results was achieved when the load shifting in the load variance was not considered which means the charge-discharge of the energy storage system was not executed. In the meantime, the service life of the ESS would increase.
Influence of Shift Work on Manual Dexterity and Reaction Time in Tunisian Nurses.
Merchaoui, Irtyah; Chaari, Neila; Bouhlel, Mohamed; Bouzgarrou, Lamia; Malchaire, Jacques; Akrout, Mohamed
2017-01-01
Major effects of shift schedule are related to sleep alertness and performance, but also to long term health outcomes. For nurses, these negative effects have consequences not only on the individual, but also on the workplace, as decreased alertness and reduced job performance could endanger human lives. The specific aim of our study is to assess the influence of shift schedule on nurses´ cognitive ability and rapidity of execution. Our survey is a cross sectional study which had been conducted for 15 months; it involved a sample of 293 participants representative of 1118 nurses working in two Tunisian university hospitals. It included an evaluation of the rapidity of execution performance through the manual dexterity test and the reaction time test. The study was completed by an assessment of the workability Index through a 7- item survey. No association was found between the groups of work schedules and the cognitive ability of execution speed. However, we found a significant decrease in cognitive performance in the nurses exceeding 10 years of job seniority for both schedules. We concluded to an impaired cognitive performance speed in the over 10-year seniority groups in both schedules. Recommendations should be focused on implementing periodic assessment of cognitive performance based on O'Connor finger dexterity test and time reaction test and on implementing effective preventive measures in hospitals after ten years of seniority at work. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.
Working the night shift: a necessary time for training or a risk to health and safety?
Morrison, I; Flower, D; Hurley, J; McFadyen, R J
2013-01-01
The European Working Time Directive (EWTD) limits excessive night shifts and restricts the working week to no more than 48 hours. The underlying rationale is to minimise the health risks to all workers. Here we debate the impact of night rotas for doctors-in-training on patient safety and medical education; when the EWTD was agreed these topics may not have been considered, either systematically or objectively. The impacts of diurnal rhythms on human functions affect all night workers, but the nature of rostered medical and surgical work has little precedent in other industries or even in the contracts of other healthcare staff. For example, rostered night duties need to be distinguished from permanent night shift work. On-call medical night work from training doctors is generally required for short periods and usually involves fewer patients. It is an important time in training, where clinical responsibility and decision-making can be matured in a supervised setting. To comply with the EWTD most hospitals have adopted rota patterns that aim to cover the clinical needs, while ensuring no doctor works for more than 48 hours in an average working week. To monitor this process longterm studies are necessary to evaluate effects on a doctor's health and on patient care generally. The EWTD has also led to a loss of continuity of patient care; does this really matter?
Hulsegge, Gerben; Gupta, Nidhi; Holtermann, Andreas; Jørgensen, Marie Birk; Proper, Karin I; van der Beek, Allard J
2017-03-01
Objective Physical inactivity has been hypothesized as an underlying factor for the association between shift work and adverse health outcomes. We compared leisure-time and occupational physical activity and sedentary behavior between day, night, and non-night shift workers. Methods We identified 612 day workers, 139 night shift workers and 61 non-night shift workers aged 18-65 years (54% men) in two Danish studies: the New method for Objective Measurements of physical Activity in Daily living (NOMAD) and the Danish Physical ACTivity cohort with Objective measurements (DPhacto) between 2011-2013. Sedentary behavior, light, and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity were measured using an accelerometer. Physical activity was expressed as percentage of leisure and work time spent in each activity. Linear regression analyses were used to test differences in physical activity and sedentary behavior between day, night, and non-night shift workers. Results No differences in leisure-time sedentary behavior and physical activity were observed between day and shift workers (P>0.05). Non-night shift workers spent 7.2% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 2.3-12.1) more time in occupational sedentary behavior than day workers and 5.9% (95% CI -10.1- -1.7) and 1.9% (95% CI -3.7- -0.2) less time in occupational light and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, respectively. Compared to day workers, night shift workers spent 4.3% (95% CI 2.4-6.1) more time at work in uninterrupted sedentary periods of ≥30 minutes. Conclusions Shift workers had similar leisure-time physical activity patterns as day workers, but were more sedentary at work. Future research should elucidate whether occupational physical inactivity and sedentary behavior contributes to shift work-related adverse health effects.
Estimating spatial travel times using automatic vehicle identification data
2001-01-01
Prepared ca. 2001. The paper describes an algorithm that was developed for estimating reliable and accurate average roadway link travel times using Automatic Vehicle Identification (AVI) data. The algorithm presented is unique in two aspects. First, ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kim Jae H
2005-01-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the issue of blind detection of Alamouti-type differential space-time (ST modulation in static Rayleigh fading channels. We focus our attention on a -shifted BPSK constellation, introducing a novel transformation to the received signal such that this binary ST modulation, which has a second-order transmit diversity, is equivalent to QPSK modulation with second-order receive diversity. This equivalent representation allows us to apply a low-complexity detection technique specifically designed for receive diversity, namely, scalar multiple-symbol differential detection (MSDD. To further increase receiver performance, we apply an iterative expectation-maximization (EM algorithm which performs joint channel estimation and sequence detection. This algorithm uses minimum mean square estimation to obtain channel estimates and the maximum-likelihood principle to detect the transmitted sequence, followed by differential decoding. With receiver complexity proportional to the observation window length, our receiver can achieve the performance of a coherent maximal ratio combining receiver (with differential decoding in as few as a single EM receiver iteration, provided that the window size of the initial MSDD is sufficiently long. To further demonstrate that the MSDD is a vital part of this receiver setup, we show that an initial ST conventional differential detector would lead to strange convergence behavior in the EM algorithm.
Itter, M.; Finley, A. O.; Hooten, M.; Higuera, P. E.; Marlon, J. R.; McLachlan, J. S.; Kelly, R.
2016-12-01
deposition rate exhibits changes over time coincident with major climatic and vegetation shifts over the past 10,000 years. Ongoing work will use the regional charcoal deposition rate to estimate changes in biomass burned as a function of climate variability and regional vegetation pattern.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Arkoprovo Biswas
2011-07-01
Full Text Available In the presence of conducting inhomogeneities in near-surface structures, apparent resistivity data in magnetotelluric sounding can be severely distorted. This is due to electric fields generated from boundary charges on surficial inhomogeneities. Such distortion persists throughout the entire recording range and is known as static shift in magnetotellurics. Frequency-independent static shifts manifest as vertical, parallel shifts that occur in plots of the dual logarithmic scale of apparent resistivity versus time period. The phase of magnetotelluric sounding data remains unaffected by the static shift and can be used to remove the static shift to some extent. However, individual inversion of phase data yields highly nonunique results, and alone it will not work to correctly remove the static shift. Inversions of uncorrected magnetotelluric data yield erroneous and unreliable estimations, while static-shift-corrected magnetotelluric data provide better and reliable estimations of the resistivities and thicknesses of subsurface structures. In the present study, static shift (a frequency-independent real constant is also considered as one of the model parameters and is optimized together with other model parameters (resistivity and thickness using the very fast simulated annealing global inversion technique. This implies that model parameters are determined simultaneously with the estimate of the static shift in the data. Synthetic and noisy data generated for a number of models are interpreted, to demonstrate the efficacy of the approach to yield reliable estimates of subsurface structures when the apparent resistivity data are affected by static shift. Individual inversions of static-shift-affected apparent resistivity data and phase data yield unreliable estimations of the model parameters. Furthermore, the estimated model parameters after individual data inversions do not show any systematic correlations with the amount of static shift in the
Doppler-shift estimation of flat underwater channel using data-aided least-square approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Weiqiang Pan
2015-03-01
Full Text Available In this paper we proposed a dada-aided Doppler estimation method for underwater acoustic communication. The training sequence is non-dedicate, hence it can be designed for Doppler estimation as well as channel equalization. We assume the channel has been equalized and consider only flat-fading channel. First, based on the training symbols the theoretical received sequence is composed. Next the least square principle is applied to build the objective function, which minimizes the error between the composed and the actual received signal. Then an iterative approach is applied to solve the least square problem. The proposed approach involves an outer loop and inner loop, which resolve the channel gain and Doppler coefficient, respectively. The theoretical performance bound, i.e. the Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB of estimation is also derived. Computer simulations results show that the proposed algorithm achieves the CRLB in medium to high SNR cases.
Doppler-shift estimation of flat underwater channel using data-aided least-square approach
Pan, Weiqiang; Liu, Ping; Chen, Fangjiong; Ji, Fei; Feng, Jing
2015-06-01
In this paper we proposed a dada-aided Doppler estimation method for underwater acoustic communication. The training sequence is non-dedicate, hence it can be designed for Doppler estimation as well as channel equalization. We assume the channel has been equalized and consider only flat-fading channel. First, based on the training symbols the theoretical received sequence is composed. Next the least square principle is applied to build the objective function, which minimizes the error between the composed and the actual received signal. Then an iterative approach is applied to solve the least square problem. The proposed approach involves an outer loop and inner loop, which resolve the channel gain and Doppler coefficient, respectively. The theoretical performance bound, i.e. the Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) of estimation is also derived. Computer simulations results show that the proposed algorithm achieves the CRLB in medium to high SNR cases.
Absolute continuity under time shift of trajectories and related stochastic calculus
Löbus, Jörg-Uwe
2017-01-01
The text is concerned with a class of two-sided stochastic processes of the form X=W+A. Here W is a two-sided Brownian motion with random initial data at time zero and A\\equiv A(W) is a function of W. Elements of the related stochastic calculus are introduced. In particular, the calculus is adjusted to the case when A is a jump process. Absolute continuity of (X,P) under time shift of trajectories is investigated. For example under various conditions on the initial density with respect to the Lebesgue measure, m, and on A with A_0=0 we verify \\frac{P(dX_{\\cdot -t})}{P(dX_\\cdot)}=\\frac{m(X_{-t})}{m(X_0)}\\cdot \\prod_i\\left|\
Estimating indices of range shifts in birds using dynamic models when detection is imperfect
Clement, Matthew J.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Pardieck, Keith L.; Ziolkowski, David J.
2016-01-01
There is intense interest in basic and applied ecology about the effect of global change on current and future species distributions. Projections based on widely used static modeling methods implicitly assume that species are in equilibrium with the environment and that detection during surveys is perfect. We used multiseason correlated detection occupancy models, which avoid these assumptions, to relate climate data to distributional shifts of Louisiana Waterthrush in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. We summarized these shifts with indices of range size and position and compared them to the same indices obtained using more basic modeling approaches. Detection rates during point counts in BBS surveys were low, and models that ignored imperfect detection severely underestimated the proportion of area occupied and slightly overestimated mean latitude. Static models indicated Louisiana Waterthrush distribution was most closely associated with moderate temperatures, while dynamic occupancy models indicated that initial occupancy was associated with diurnal temperature ranges and colonization of sites was associated with moderate precipitation. Overall, the proportion of area occupied and mean latitude changed little during the 1997–2013 study period. Near-term forecasts of species distribution generated by dynamic models were more similar to subsequently observed distributions than forecasts from static models. Occupancy models incorporating a finite mixture model on detection – a new extension to correlated detection occupancy models – were better supported and may reduce bias associated with detection heterogeneity. We argue that replacing phenomenological static models with more mechanistic dynamic models can improve projections of future species distributions. In turn, better projections can improve biodiversity forecasts, management decisions, and understanding of global change biology.
Using Indirect Turbulence Measurements for Real-Time Parameter Estimation in Turbulent Air
Martos, Borja; Morelli, Eugene A.
2012-01-01
The use of indirect turbulence measurements for real-time estimation of parameters in a linear longitudinal dynamics model in atmospheric turbulence was studied. It is shown that measuring the atmospheric turbulence makes it possible to treat the turbulence as a measured explanatory variable in the parameter estimation problem. Commercial off-the-shelf sensors were researched and evaluated, then compared to air data booms. Sources of colored noise in the explanatory variables resulting from typical turbulence measurement techniques were identified and studied. A major source of colored noise in the explanatory variables was identified as frequency dependent upwash and time delay. The resulting upwash and time delay corrections were analyzed and compared to previous time shift dynamic modeling research. Simulation data as well as flight test data in atmospheric turbulence were used to verify the time delay behavior. Recommendations are given for follow on flight research and instrumentation.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wencai Pan
Full Text Available Cerebral hemorrhage, a difficult issue in clinical practice, is often detected and studied with computed tomography (CT, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, and positron emission tomography (PET. However, these expensive devices are not readily available in economically underdeveloped regions, and hence are unable to provide bedside and emergency on-site monitoring. The magnetic inductive phase shift (MIPS is an emerging technology that may become a new tool to detect cerebral hemorrhage and to serve as an inexpensive partial substitute to medical imaging. In order to study a wider band of cerebral hemorrhage MIPS and to provide more useful information for measuring cerebral hemorrhage, we established a cerebral hemorrhage magnetic induction phase shift spectroscopy (MIPSS detection system. Thirteen rabbits with five cerebral hemorrhage states were studied using a single coil-coil within a 1 MHz-200 MHz frequency range in linear sweep. A feature band (FB with the highest detection sensitivity and the greatest stability was selected for further analysis and processing. In addition, a maximum conductivity cerebrospinal fluid (CSF MRI was performed to verify and interpret the MIPSS result. The average phase shift change induced by a 3 ml injection of autologous blood under FB was -7.7503° ± 1.4204°, which was considerably larger than our previous work. Data analysis with a non-parametric statistical Friedman M test showed that in the FB, MIPSS could distinguish the five states of cerebral hemorrhage in rabbits, with a statistical significance of p<0.05. A B-F distribution profile was designed according to the MIPSS under FB that can provide instantaneous diagnostic information about the cerebral hemorrhage severity from a single set of measurements. The results illustrate that the MIPSS detection method is able to provide a new possibility for real-time monitoring and diagnosis of the severity of cerebral hemorrhage.
Pan, Wencai; Yan, Qingguang; Qin, Mingxin; Jin, Gui; Sun, Jian; Ning, Xu; Zhuang, Wei; Peng, Bin; Li, Gen
2015-01-01
Cerebral hemorrhage, a difficult issue in clinical practice, is often detected and studied with computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and positron emission tomography (PET). However, these expensive devices are not readily available in economically underdeveloped regions, and hence are unable to provide bedside and emergency on-site monitoring. The magnetic inductive phase shift (MIPS) is an emerging technology that may become a new tool to detect cerebral hemorrhage and to serve as an inexpensive partial substitute to medical imaging. In order to study a wider band of cerebral hemorrhage MIPS and to provide more useful information for measuring cerebral hemorrhage, we established a cerebral hemorrhage magnetic induction phase shift spectroscopy (MIPSS) detection system. Thirteen rabbits with five cerebral hemorrhage states were studied using a single coil-coil within a 1 MHz-200 MHz frequency range in linear sweep. A feature band (FB) with the highest detection sensitivity and the greatest stability was selected for further analysis and processing. In addition, a maximum conductivity cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) MRI was performed to verify and interpret the MIPSS result. The average phase shift change induced by a 3 ml injection of autologous blood under FB was -7.7503° ± 1.4204°, which was considerably larger than our previous work. Data analysis with a non-parametric statistical Friedman M test showed that in the FB, MIPSS could distinguish the five states of cerebral hemorrhage in rabbits, with a statistical significance of phemorrhage severity from a single set of measurements. The results illustrate that the MIPSS detection method is able to provide a new possibility for real-time monitoring and diagnosis of the severity of cerebral hemorrhage. PMID:26001112
NICOLETTI, Corinne; MÜLLER, Christian; TOBITA, Itoko; NAKASEKO, Masaru; LÄUBLI, Thomas
2014-01-01
The aim of the present study was to analyze the activity of the trapezius muscle, the heart rate and the time pressure of Swiss and Japanese nurses during day and night shifts. The parameters were measured during a day and a night shift of 17 Swiss and 22 Japanese nurses. The observed rest time of the trapezius muscle was longer for Swiss than for Japanese nurses during both shifts. The 10th and the 50th percentile of the trapezius muscle activity showed a different effect for Swiss than for Japanese nurses. It was higher during the day shift of Swiss nurses and higher during the night shift of Japanese nurses. Heart rate was higher for both Swiss and Japanese nurses during the day. The time pressure was significantly higher for Japanese than for Swiss nurses. Over the duration of the shifts, time pressure increased for Japanese nurses and slightly decreased for those from Switzerland. Considering trapezius muscle activity and time pressure, the nursing profession was more burdening for the examined Japanese nurses than for Swiss nurses. In particular, the night shift for Japanese nurses was characterized by a high trapezius muscle activity and only few rest times for the trapezius muscle. PMID:24633074
Guerreiro, Nelson M.; Butler, Ricky W.; Maddalon, Jeffrey M.; Hagen, George E.; Lewis, Timothy A.
2015-01-01
The performance of the conflict detection function in a separation assurance system is dependent on the content and quality of the data available to perform that function. Specifically, data quality and data content available to the conflict detection function have a direct impact on the accuracy of the prediction of an aircraft's future state or trajectory, which, in turn, impacts the ability to successfully anticipate potential losses of separation (detect future conflicts). Consequently, other separation assurance functions that rely on the conflict detection function - namely, conflict resolution - are prone to negative performance impacts. The many possible allocations and implementations of the conflict detection function between centralized and distributed systems drive the need to understand the key relationships that impact conflict detection performance, with respect to differences in data available. This paper presents the preliminary results of an analysis technique developed to investigate the impacts of data quality and data content on conflict detection performance. Flight track data recorded from a day of the National Airspace System is time-shifted to create conflicts not present in the un-shifted data. A methodology is used to smooth and filter the recorded data to eliminate sensor fusion noise, data drop-outs and other anomalies in the data. The metrics used to characterize conflict detection performance are presented and a set of preliminary results is discussed.
Quantum reflection times and space shifts for Casimir-van der Waals potential tails
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jurisch, Alexander; Friedrich, Harald
2004-01-01
When cold atoms approach a surface, they can be quantum reflected by quantal regions in the tail of the atom-surface potential. We study the phase of the reflection amplitude for Casimir-van der Waals potential tails, depending on the critical parameter ρ=ρ(C 3 ,C 4 ), which describes the relative importance of the -C 3 /r 3 and -C 4 /r 4 parts of the potential. The phase is related to observable kinematic quantities, the space and time shifts, the reflected atom experiences. We study three different models for the shape of the potential between the asymptotic limits and observe that the phases are more sensitive to the potential shape than the quantum reflection probabilities. At threshold, there are always time delays in comparison to the free movement. This is in contrast to the classical movement, which shows time gains. Further above threshold, the quantum reflected atom experiences a time gain relative to free motion, but this time gain is generally smaller than that of the classical particle
Li, Xueliang; Geng, Tianwen; Ma, Shuang; Li, Yatian; Gao, Shijie; Wu, Zhiyong
2017-06-01
The performance of coherent free-space optical (CFSO) communication with phase modulation is limited by both phase fluctuations and intensity scintillations induced by atmospheric turbulence. To improve the system performance, one effective way is to use digital phase estimation. In this paper, a CFSO communication system with quadrature phase-shift keying modulation is studied. With consideration of the effects of log-normal amplitude fluctuations and Gauss phase fluctuations, a two-stage Mth power carrier phase estimation (CPE) scheme is proposed. The simulation results show that the phase noise can be suppressed greatly by this scheme, and the system symbol error rate performance with the two-stage Mth power CPE can be three orders lower than that of the single-stage Mth power CPE. Therefore, the two-stage CPE we proposed can contribute to the performance improvements of the CFSO communication system and has determinate guidance sense to its actual application.
Multiple Estimation Architecture in Discrete-Time Adaptive Mixing Control
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Simone Baldi
2013-05-01
Full Text Available Adaptive mixing control (AMC is a recently developed control scheme for uncertain plants, where the control action coming from a bank of precomputed controller is mixed based on the parameter estimates generated by an on-line parameter estimator. Even if the stability of the control scheme, also in the presence of modeling errors and disturbances, has been shown analytically, its transient performance might be sensitive to the initial conditions of the parameter estimator. In particular, for some initial conditions, transient oscillations may not be acceptable in practical applications. In order to account for such a possible phenomenon and to improve the learning capability of the adaptive scheme, in this paper a new mixing architecture is developed, involving the use of parallel parameter estimators, or multi-estimators, each one working on a small subset of the uncertainty set. A supervisory logic, using performance signals based on the past and present estimation error, selects the parameter estimate to determine the mixing of the controllers. The stability and robustness properties of the resulting approach, referred to as multi-estimator adaptive mixing control (Multi-AMC, are analytically established. Besides, extensive simulations demonstrate that the scheme improves the transient performance of the original AMC with a single estimator. The control scheme and the analysis are carried out in a discrete-time framework, for easier implementation of the method in digital control.
Joint Estimation and Decoding of Space-Time Trellis Codes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhang Jianqiu
2002-01-01
Full Text Available We explore the possibility of using an emerging tool in statistical signal processing, sequential importance sampling (SIS, for joint estimation and decoding of space-time trellis codes (STTC. First, we provide background on SIS, and then we discuss its application to space-time trellis code (STTC systems. It is shown through simulations that SIS is suitable for joint estimation and decoding of STTC with time-varying flat-fading channels when phase ambiguity is avoided. We used a design criterion for STTCs and temporally correlated channels that combats phase ambiguity without pilot signaling. We have shown by simulations that the design is valid.
LENUS (Irish Health Repository)
Munson, Gregory W
2011-03-01
Recent research suggests that the colonoscopy polyp detection rate (PDR) varies by time of day, possibly because of endoscopist fatigue. Mayo Clinic Rochester (MCR) schedules colonoscopies on 3-hour shifts, which should minimize fatigue.
Time improvement of photoelectric effect calculation for absorbed dose estimation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Massa, J M; Wainschenker, R S; Doorn, J H; Caselli, E E
2007-01-01
Ionizing radiation therapy is a very useful tool in cancer treatment. It is very important to determine absorbed dose in human tissue to accomplish an effective treatment. A mathematical model based on affected areas is the most suitable tool to estimate the absorbed dose. Lately, Monte Carlo based techniques have become the most reliable, but they are time expensive. Absorbed dose calculating programs using different strategies have to choose between estimation quality and calculating time. This paper describes an optimized method for the photoelectron polar angle calculation in photoelectric effect, which is significant to estimate deposited energy in human tissue. In the case studies, time cost reduction nearly reached 86%, meaning that the time needed to do the calculation is approximately 1/7 th of the non optimized approach. This has been done keeping precision invariant
Reliability of Bluetooth Technology for Travel Time Estimation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Araghi, Bahar Namaki; Olesen, Jonas Hammershøj; Krishnan, Rajesh
2015-01-01
. However, their corresponding impacts on accuracy and reliability of estimated travel time have not been evaluated. In this study, a controlled field experiment is conducted to collect both Bluetooth and GPS data for 1000 trips to be used as the basis for evaluation. Data obtained by GPS logger is used...... to calculate actual travel time, referred to as ground truth, and to geo-code the Bluetooth detection events. In this setting, reliability is defined as the percentage of devices captured per trip during the experiment. It is found that, on average, Bluetooth-enabled devices will be detected 80% of the time......-range antennae detect Bluetooth-enabled devices in a closer location to the sensor, thus providing a more accurate travel time estimate. However, the smaller the size of the detection zone, the lower the penetration rate, which could itself influence the accuracy of estimates. Therefore, there has to be a trade...
Time of arrival based location estimation for cooperative relay networks
Çelebi, Hasari Burak
2010-09-01
In this paper, we investigate the performance of a cooperative relay network performing location estimation through time of arrival (TOA). We derive Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) for the location estimates using the relay network. The analysis is extended to obtain average CRLB considering the signal fluctuations in both relay and direct links. The effects of the channel fading of both relay and direct links and amplification factor and location of the relay node on average CRLB are investigated. Simulation results show that the channel fading of both relay and direct links and amplification factor and location of relay node affect the accuracy of TOA based location estimation. ©2010 IEEE.
Time of arrival based location estimation for cooperative relay networks
Ç elebi, Hasari Burak; Abdallah, Mohamed M.; Hussain, Syed Imtiaz; Qaraqe, Khalid A.; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim
2010-01-01
In this paper, we investigate the performance of a cooperative relay network performing location estimation through time of arrival (TOA). We derive Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) for the location estimates using the relay network. The analysis is extended to obtain average CRLB considering the signal fluctuations in both relay and direct links. The effects of the channel fading of both relay and direct links and amplification factor and location of the relay node on average CRLB are investigated. Simulation results show that the channel fading of both relay and direct links and amplification factor and location of relay node affect the accuracy of TOA based location estimation. ©2010 IEEE.
Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K
2017-01-01
BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date....... It is common practice to apply the Kaplan-Meier or Aalen-Johansen estimator to the total sample and report either the estimated cumulative incidence curve or just a single point on the curve as a description of the disease risk. METHODS: We argue that, whenever the disease or disorder of interest is influenced...
Similarity estimators for irregular and age uncertain time series
Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.
2013-09-01
Paleoclimate time series are often irregularly sampled and age uncertain, which is an important technical challenge to overcome for successful reconstruction of past climate variability and dynamics. Visual comparison and interpolation-based linear correlation approaches have been used to infer dependencies from such proxy time series. While the first is subjective, not measurable and not suitable for the comparison of many datasets at a time, the latter introduces interpolation bias, and both face difficulties if the underlying dependencies are nonlinear. In this paper we investigate similarity estimators that could be suitable for the quantitative investigation of dependencies in irregular and age uncertain time series. We compare the Gaussian-kernel based cross correlation (gXCF, Rehfeld et al., 2011) and mutual information (gMI, Rehfeld et al., 2013) against their interpolation-based counterparts and the new event synchronization function (ESF). We test the efficiency of the methods in estimating coupling strength and coupling lag numerically, using ensembles of synthetic stalagmites with short, autocorrelated, linear and nonlinearly coupled proxy time series, and in the application to real stalagmite time series. In the linear test case coupling strength increases are identified consistently for all estimators, while in the nonlinear test case the correlation-based approaches fail. The lag at which the time series are coupled is identified correctly as the maximum of the similarity functions in around 60-55% (in the linear case) to 53-42% (for the nonlinear processes) of the cases when the dating of the synthetic stalagmite is perfectly precise. If the age uncertainty increases beyond 5% of the time series length, however, the true coupling lag is not identified more often than the others for which the similarity function was estimated. Age uncertainty contributes up to half of the uncertainty in the similarity estimation process. Time series irregularity
Similarity estimators for irregular and age-uncertain time series
Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.
2014-01-01
Paleoclimate time series are often irregularly sampled and age uncertain, which is an important technical challenge to overcome for successful reconstruction of past climate variability and dynamics. Visual comparison and interpolation-based linear correlation approaches have been used to infer dependencies from such proxy time series. While the first is subjective, not measurable and not suitable for the comparison of many data sets at a time, the latter introduces interpolation bias, and both face difficulties if the underlying dependencies are nonlinear. In this paper we investigate similarity estimators that could be suitable for the quantitative investigation of dependencies in irregular and age-uncertain time series. We compare the Gaussian-kernel-based cross-correlation (gXCF, Rehfeld et al., 2011) and mutual information (gMI, Rehfeld et al., 2013) against their interpolation-based counterparts and the new event synchronization function (ESF). We test the efficiency of the methods in estimating coupling strength and coupling lag numerically, using ensembles of synthetic stalagmites with short, autocorrelated, linear and nonlinearly coupled proxy time series, and in the application to real stalagmite time series. In the linear test case, coupling strength increases are identified consistently for all estimators, while in the nonlinear test case the correlation-based approaches fail. The lag at which the time series are coupled is identified correctly as the maximum of the similarity functions in around 60-55% (in the linear case) to 53-42% (for the nonlinear processes) of the cases when the dating of the synthetic stalagmite is perfectly precise. If the age uncertainty increases beyond 5% of the time series length, however, the true coupling lag is not identified more often than the others for which the similarity function was estimated. Age uncertainty contributes up to half of the uncertainty in the similarity estimation process. Time series irregularity
Estimating anesthesia and surgical procedure times from medicare anesthesia claims.
Silber, Jeffrey H; Rosenbaum, Paul R; Zhang, Xuemei; Even-Shoshan, Orit
2007-02-01
Procedure times are important variables that often are included in studies of quality and efficiency. However, due to the need for costly chart review, most studies are limited to single-institution analyses. In this article, the authors describe how well the anesthesia claim from Medicare can estimate chart times. The authors abstracted information on time of induction and entrance to the recovery room ("anesthesia chart time") from the charts of 1,931 patients who underwent general and orthopedic surgical procedures in Pennsylvania. The authors then merged the associated bills from claims data supplied from Medicare (Part B data) that included a variable denoting the time in minutes for the anesthesia service. The authors also investigated the time from incision to closure ("surgical chart time") on a subset of 1,888 patients. Anesthesia claim time from Medicare was highly predictive of anesthesia chart time (Kendall's rank correlation tau = 0.85, P < 0.0001, median absolute error = 5.1 min) but somewhat less predictive of surgical chart time (Kendall's tau = 0.73, P < 0.0001, median absolute error = 13.8 min). When predicting chart time from Medicare bills, variables reflecting procedure type, comorbidities, and hospital type did not significantly improve the prediction, suggesting that errors in predicting the chart time from the anesthesia bill time are not related to these factors; however, the individual hospital did have some influence on these estimates. Anesthesia chart time can be well estimated using Medicare claims, thereby facilitating studies with vastly larger sample sizes and much lower costs of data collection.
Dynamic Maternal Gradients Control Timing and Shift-Rates for Drosophila Gap Gene Expression
Verd, Berta; Crombach, Anton
2017-01-01
Pattern formation during development is a highly dynamic process. In spite of this, few experimental and modelling approaches take into account the explicit time-dependence of the rules governing regulatory systems. We address this problem by studying dynamic morphogen interpretation by the gap gene network in Drosophila melanogaster. Gap genes are involved in segment determination during early embryogenesis. They are activated by maternal morphogen gradients encoded by bicoid (bcd) and caudal (cad). These gradients decay at the same time-scale as the establishment of the antero-posterior gap gene pattern. We use a reverse-engineering approach, based on data-driven regulatory models called gene circuits, to isolate and characterise the explicitly time-dependent effects of changing morphogen concentrations on gap gene regulation. To achieve this, we simulate the system in the presence and absence of dynamic gradient decay. Comparison between these simulations reveals that maternal morphogen decay controls the timing and limits the rate of gap gene expression. In the anterior of the embyro, it affects peak expression and leads to the establishment of smooth spatial boundaries between gap domains. In the posterior of the embryo, it causes a progressive slow-down in the rate of gap domain shifts, which is necessary to correctly position domain boundaries and to stabilise the spatial gap gene expression pattern. We use a newly developed method for the analysis of transient dynamics in non-autonomous (time-variable) systems to understand the regulatory causes of these effects. By providing a rigorous mechanistic explanation for the role of maternal gradient decay in gap gene regulation, our study demonstrates that such analyses are feasible and reveal important aspects of dynamic gene regulation which would have been missed by a traditional steady-state approach. More generally, it highlights the importance of transient dynamics for understanding complex regulatory
Duffy, Sean; Smith, John
2017-10-18
Duffy, Huttenlocher, Hedges, and Crawford (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 17(2), 224-230, 2010) report on experiments where participants estimate the lengths of lines. These studies were designed to test the category adjustment model (CAM), a Bayesian model of judgments. The authors report that their analysis provides evidence consistent with CAM: that there is a bias toward the running mean and not recent stimuli. We reexamine their data. First, we attempt to replicate their analysis, and we obtain different results. Second, we conduct a different statistical analysis. We find significant recency effects, and we identify several specifications where the running mean is not significantly related to judgment. Third, we conduct tests of auxiliary predictions of CAM. We do not find evidence that the bias toward the mean increases with exposure to the distribution. We also do not find that responses longer than the maximum of the distribution or shorter than the minimum become less likely with greater exposure to the distribution. Fourth, we produce a simulated dataset that is consistent with key features of CAM, and our methods correctly identify it as consistent with CAM. We conclude that the Duffy et al. (2010) dataset is not consistent with CAM. We also discuss how conventions in psychology do not sufficiently reduce the likelihood of these mistakes in future research. We hope that the methods that we employ will be used to evaluate other datasets.
Smooth time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve estimators.
Martínez-Camblor, Pablo; Pardo-Fernández, Juan Carlos
2018-03-01
The receiver operating characteristic curve is a popular graphical method often used to study the diagnostic capacity of continuous (bio)markers. When the considered outcome is a time-dependent variable, two main extensions have been proposed: the cumulative/dynamic receiver operating characteristic curve and the incident/dynamic receiver operating characteristic curve. In both cases, the main problem for developing appropriate estimators is the estimation of the joint distribution of the variables time-to-event and marker. As usual, different approximations lead to different estimators. In this article, the authors explore the use of a bivariate kernel density estimator which accounts for censored observations in the sample and produces smooth estimators of the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves. The performance of the resulting cumulative/dynamic and incident/dynamic receiver operating characteristic curves is studied by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Additionally, the influence of the choice of the required smoothing parameters is explored. Finally, two real-applications are considered. An R package is also provided as a complement to this article.
Maximizing the Impact of e-Therapy and Serious Gaming: Time for a Paradigm Shift.
Fleming, Theresa M; de Beurs, Derek; Khazaal, Yasser; Gaggioli, Andrea; Riva, Giuseppe; Botella, Cristina; Baños, Rosa M; Aschieri, Filippo; Bavin, Lynda M; Kleiboer, Annet; Merry, Sally; Lau, Ho Ming; Riper, Heleen
2016-01-01
Internet interventions for mental health, including serious games, online programs, and apps, hold promise for increasing access to evidence-based treatments and prevention. Many such interventions have been shown to be effective and acceptable in trials; however, uptake and adherence outside of trials is seldom reported, and where it is, adherence at least, generally appears to be underwhelming. In response, an international Collaboration On Maximizing the impact of E-Therapy and Serious Gaming (COMETS) was formed. In this perspectives' paper, we call for a paradigm shift to increase the impact of internet interventions toward the ultimate goal of improved population mental health. We propose four pillars for change: (1) increased focus on user-centered approaches, including both user-centered design of programs and greater individualization within programs, with the latter perhaps utilizing increased modularization; (2) Increased emphasis on engagement utilizing processes such as gaming, gamification, telepresence, and persuasive technology; (3) Increased collaboration in program development, testing, and data sharing, across both sectors and regions, in order to achieve higher quality, more sustainable outcomes with greater reach; and (4) Rapid testing and implementation, including the measurement of reach, engagement, and effectiveness, and timely implementation. We suggest it is time for researchers, clinicians, developers, and end-users to collaborate on these aspects in order to maximize the impact of e-therapies and serious gaming.
Maximizing the impact of e-therapy and serious gaming: Time for a paradigm shift
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Theresa M Fleming
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Internet interventions for mental health, including serious games, online programs and apps, hold promise for increasing access to evidence-based treatments and prevention. Many such interventions have been shown to be effective and acceptable in trials; however, uptake and adherence outside of trials is seldom reported, and where it is, adherence at least, generally appears to be underwhelming. In response, an international Collaboration On Maximizing the impact of E-Therapy and Serious Gaming (COMETS was formed. In this perspectives paper, we call for a paradigm shift to increase the impact of internet interventions towards the ultimate goal of improved population mental health. We propose four pillars for change: 1. Increased focus on user-centered approaches, including both user-centered design of programs and greater individualization within programs, with the latter perhaps utilizing increased modulariziation. 2. Increased emphasis on engagement; utilizing processes such as gaming, gamification, telepresence, and persuasive technology. 3. Increased collaboration in program development, testing and data sharing, across both sectors and regions, in order to achieve higher quality, more sustainable outcomes with greater reach. 4. Rapid testing and implementation, including the measurement of reach, engagement and effectiveness, and timely implementation. We suggest it is time for researchers, clinicians, developers and end-users to collaborate on these aspects in order to maximize the impact of e-therapies and serious gaming.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ozawa, Norihiko; Muragaki, Yoshihiro; Nakamura, Ryoichi; Iseki, Hiroshi; Hori, Tomokatsu
2009-01-01
The present study evaluated the shift of the pyramidal tract during resection of 17 proximal intraaxial brain tumors. In each case intraoperative diffusion-weighted (iDW) magnetic resonance imaging with a motion-probing gradient applied in the anteroposterior direction was performed using a scanner with a 0.3 T vertical magnetic field. The position of the white matter bundles containing the pyramidal tract was estimated on the coronal images before and after resection of the neoplasm, and both quantitative and directional evaluation of its displacement was done. In all cases iDW imaging provided visualization of the structure of interest. The magnitude of the pyramidal tract displacement due to removal of the neoplasm varied from 0.5 to 8.7 mm (mean 4.4±2.5 mm) on the lesion side and from 0 to 3.6 mm (mean 1.3±1.1 mm) on the normal side (p<0.001). Tumor location in regards to the pyramidal tract was significantly associated with the direction of the pyramidal tract displacement (p<0.05). Outward shift occurred in 10 out of 13 cases of the lateral neoplasms, whereas in all 4 superomedial tumors inward shift was marked. In conclusion, the direction of the pyramidal tract displacement during resection of the proximal intraaxial brain tumors is mainly determined by position of the neoplasm, but can be unpredictable in some cases, which necessitates use of subcortical brain mapping and intraoperative imaging, particularly iDW imaging with updated neuronavigation. (author)
Estimated time spent on preventive services by primary care physicians
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gradison Margaret
2008-12-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Delivery of preventive health services in primary care is lacking. One of the main barriers is lack of time. We estimated the amount of time primary care physicians spend on important preventive health services. Methods We analyzed a large dataset of primary care (family and internal medicine visits using the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (2001–4; analyses were conducted 2007–8. Multiple linear regression was used to estimate the amount of time spent delivering each preventive service, controlling for demographic covariates. Results Preventive visits were longer than chronic care visits (M = 22.4, SD = 11.8, M = 18.9, SD = 9.2, respectively. New patients required more time from physicians. Services on which physicians spent relatively more time were prostate specific antigen (PSA, cholesterol, Papanicolaou (Pap smear, mammography, exercise counseling, and blood pressure. Physicians spent less time than recommended on two "A" rated ("good evidence" services, tobacco cessation and Pap smear (in preventive visits, and one "B" rated ("at least fair evidence" service, nutrition counseling. Physicians spent substantial time on two services that have an "I" rating ("inconclusive evidence of effectiveness", PSA and exercise counseling. Conclusion Even with limited time, physicians address many of the "A" rated services adequately. However, they may be spending less time than recommended for important services, especially smoking cessation, Pap smear, and nutrition counseling. Future research is needed to understand how physicians decide how to allocate their time to address preventive health.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Meier, Patrick; Oschetzki, Dominik; Rauhut, Guntram, E-mail: rauhut@theochem.uni-stuttgart.de [Institut für Theoretische Chemie, Universität Stuttgart, Pfaffenwaldring 55, 70569 Stuttgart (Germany); Berger, Robert [Clemens-Schöpf Institut für Organische Chemie and Biochemie, Technische Universität Darmstadt, Petersenstrasse 22, 64287 Darmstadt (Germany)
2014-05-14
A transformation of potential energy surfaces (PES) being represented by multi-mode expansions is introduced, which allows for the calculation of anharmonic vibrational spectra of any isotopologue from a single PES. This simplifies the analysis of infrared spectra due to significant CPU-time savings. An investigation of remaining deviations due to truncations and the so-called multi-level approximation is provided. The importance of vibrational-rotational couplings for small molecules is discussed in detail. In addition, an analysis is proposed, which provides information about the quality of the transformation prior to its execution. Benchmark calculations are provided for a set of small molecules.
Template-Based Estimation of Time-Varying Tempo
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peeters Geoffroy
2007-01-01
Full Text Available We present a novel approach to automatic estimation of tempo over time. This method aims at detecting tempo at the tactus level for percussive and nonpercussive audio. The front-end of our system is based on a proposed reassigned spectral energy flux for the detection of musical events. The dominant periodicities of this flux are estimated by a proposed combination of discrete Fourier transform and frequency-mapped autocorrelation function. The most likely meter, beat, and tatum over time are then estimated jointly using proposed meter/beat subdivision templates and a Viterbi decoding algorithm. The performances of our system have been evaluated on four different test sets among which three were used during the ISMIR 2004 tempo induction contest. The performances obtained are close to the best results of this contest.
Nonparametric autocovariance estimation from censored time series by Gaussian imputation.
Park, Jung Wook; Genton, Marc G; Ghosh, Sujit K
2009-02-01
One of the most frequently used methods to model the autocovariance function of a second-order stationary time series is to use the parametric framework of autoregressive and moving average models developed by Box and Jenkins. However, such parametric models, though very flexible, may not always be adequate to model autocovariance functions with sharp changes. Furthermore, if the data do not follow the parametric model and are censored at a certain value, the estimation results may not be reliable. We develop a Gaussian imputation method to estimate an autocovariance structure via nonparametric estimation of the autocovariance function in order to address both censoring and incorrect model specification. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the technique in terms of bias and efficiency with simulations under various rates of censoring and underlying models. We describe its application to a time series of silicon concentrations in the Arctic.
Time estimation in Parkinson's disease and degenerative cerebellar disease
Beudel, Martijin; Galama, Sjoukje; Leenders, Klaus L.; de Jong, Bauke M.
2008-01-01
With functional MRI, we recently identified fronto-cerebellar activations in predicting time to reach a target and basal ganglia activation in velocity estimation, that is, small interval assessment. We now tested these functions in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) and degenerative cerebellar
On algebraic time-derivative estimation and deadbeat state reconstruction
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Reger, Johann; Jouffroy, Jerome
2009-01-01
This paper places into perspective the so-called algebraic time-derivative estimation method recently introduced by Fliess and co-authors with standard results from linear statespace theory for control systems. In particular, it is shown that the algebraic method can essentially be seen...
Only through perturbation can relaxation times be estimated
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Ditlevsen, S.; Lánský, Petr
2012-01-01
Roč. 86, č. 5 (2012), 050102-5 ISSN 1539-3755 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP103/11/0282; GA ČR(CZ) GBP304/12/G069 Institutional support: RVO:67985823 Keywords : stochastic diffusion * parameter estimation * time constant Subject RIV: JD - Computer Applications, Robotics Impact factor: 2.313, year: 2012
Bayesian Nonparametric Model for Estimating Multistate Travel Time Distribution
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Emmanuel Kidando
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Multistate models, that is, models with more than two distributions, are preferred over single-state probability models in modeling the distribution of travel time. Literature review indicated that the finite multistate modeling of travel time using lognormal distribution is superior to other probability functions. In this study, we extend the finite multistate lognormal model of estimating the travel time distribution to unbounded lognormal distribution. In particular, a nonparametric Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (DPMM with stick-breaking process representation was used. The strength of the DPMM is that it can choose the number of components dynamically as part of the algorithm during parameter estimation. To reduce computational complexity, the modeling process was limited to a maximum of six components. Then, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC sampling technique was employed to estimate the parameters’ posterior distribution. Speed data from nine links of a freeway corridor, aggregated on a 5-minute basis, were used to calculate the corridor travel time. The results demonstrated that this model offers significant flexibility in modeling to account for complex mixture distributions of the travel time without specifying the number of components. The DPMM modeling further revealed that freeway travel time is characterized by multistate or single-state models depending on the inclusion of onset and offset of congestion periods.
Liotard, Arnaud; Zamkotsian, Frédéric
2017-11-01
The micro-opto-electro-mechanical systems (MOEMS), based on mature technologies of micro-electronics, are essential in the design of future astronomical instruments. One of these key-components is the microdeformable mirror for wave-front correction. Very challenging topics like search of exo-planets could greatly benefit from this technology. Design, realization and characterization of micro-Deformable Mirrors are under way at Laboratoire d'Astrophysique de Marseille (LAM) in collaboration with Laboratoire d'Analyse et d'Architecture des Systèmes (LAAS). In order to measure the surface shape and the deformation parameters during operation of these devices, a high-resolution Twyman-Green interferometer has been developed. Measurements have been done on a tiltable micro-mirror (170*100μm2) designed by LAM-LAAS and realized by an American foundry, and also on an OKO deformable mirror (15mm diameter). Static characterization is made by phase shifting interferometry and dynamic measurements have been made by quantitative time-averaged interferometry. The OKO mirror has an actuator stroke of 370+/-10nm for 150V applied and its resonant frequency is 1170+/-50 Hz, and the tiltable mirror has a rotation cut-off frequency of 31+/-3 kHz.
Self-management in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Time for a paradigm shift?
Nici, Linda; Bontly, Thomas D; Zuwallack, Richard; Gross, Nicholas
2014-01-01
Self-management in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, centering on an action plan for the exacerbation and enhanced communication between the patient and health care providers, makes good clinical sense. However, five relatively large trials of self-management in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease have had inconsistent results: only two demonstrated reductions in health care utilization and one had to be discontinued prematurely because of increased mortality. Do these discordant findings require a paradigm shift in our concept of self-management? Probably not-but an analysis of the negative studies can give us valuable insights. There are data to support the idea that patients in the trial that showed increased mortality did not self-manage appropriately. Only 4.5% of these patients called in before starting treatment for their exacerbation, the time to initiation of antibiotics or steroids was unsatisfactorily long, and the intervention arm used minimally more prednisone and antibiotics than the control arm. The reasons for a higher mortality will likely never be known, but it is possible that these high-risk patients may have needed earlier assessment by a trained professional, or that self-management led to overconfidence and treatment delays. We clearly need more effective ways to implement self-management and better define which groups of patients stand to benefit (or be harmed) by this intervention. This will require an investment in well-thought-out clinical trials.
Aircraft Fault Detection Using Real-Time Frequency Response Estimation
Grauer, Jared A.
2016-01-01
A real-time method for estimating time-varying aircraft frequency responses from input and output measurements was demonstrated. The Bat-4 subscale airplane was used with NASA Langley Research Center's AirSTAR unmanned aerial flight test facility to conduct flight tests and collect data for dynamic modeling. Orthogonal phase-optimized multisine inputs, summed with pilot stick and pedal inputs, were used to excite the responses. The aircraft was tested in its normal configuration and with emulated failures, which included a stuck left ruddervator and an increased command path latency. No prior knowledge of a dynamic model was used or available for the estimation. The longitudinal short period dynamics were investigated in this work. Time-varying frequency responses and stability margins were tracked well using a 20 second sliding window of data, as compared to a post-flight analysis using output error parameter estimation and a low-order equivalent system model. This method could be used in a real-time fault detection system, or for other applications of dynamic modeling such as real-time verification of stability margins during envelope expansion tests.
Estimate of Passive Time Reversal Communication Performance in Shallow Water
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sunhyo Kim
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Time reversal processes have been used to improve communication performance in the severe underwater communication environment characterized by significant multipath channels by reducing inter-symbol interference and increasing signal-to-noise ratio. In general, the performance of the time reversal is strongly related to the behavior of the q -function, which is estimated by a sum of the autocorrelation of the channel impulse response for each channel in the receiver array. The q -function depends on the complexity of the communication channel, the number of channel elements and their spacing. A q -function with a high side-lobe level and a main-lobe width wider than the symbol duration creates a residual ISI (inter-symbol interference, which makes communication difficult even after time reversal is applied. In this paper, we propose a new parameter, E q , to describe the performance of time reversal communication. E q is an estimate of how much of the q -function lies within one symbol duration. The values of E q were estimated using communication data acquired at two different sites: one in which the sound speed ratio of sediment to water was less than unity and one where the ratio was higher than unity. Finally, the parameter E q was compared to the bit error rate and the output signal-to-noise ratio obtained after the time reversal operation. The results show that these parameters are strongly correlated to the parameter E q .
Uchida, Yukihiro; Tachibana, Hidenobu; Kamei, Yoshiyuki; Kashihara, Kenichi
2017-11-01
This study aimed to clinically validate a simple real-time baseline shift monitoring system in a prospective study of consecutive patients undergoing stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) of lung tumors, and to investigate baseline shift due to intrafraction motion of the patient's body during lung SBRT. Ten consecutive patients with peripheral lung tumors were treated by SBRT consisting of four fractions of 12 Gy each, with a total dose of 48 Gy. During treatment, each patient's geometric displacement in the anterior-posterior and left-right directions (the baseline shift) was measured using a real-time monitoring webcam system. Displacement between the start and end of treatment was measured using an X-ray fluoroscopic imaging system. The displacement measurements of the two systems were compared, and the measurements of baseline shift acquired by the monitoring system during treatment were analyzed for all patients. There was no significant deviation between the monitoring system and the X-ray imaging system, with the accuracy of measurement being within 1 mm. Measurements using the monitoring system showed that 7 min of treatment generated displacements of more than 1 mm in 50% of the patients. Baseline shift of a patient's body may be measured accurately in real time, using a monitoring system without X-ray exposure. The manubrium of the sternum is a good location for measuring the baseline shift of a patient's body at all times. The real-time monitoring system may be useful for measuring the baseline shift of a patient's body independently of a gating system. Copyright © 2017 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Surgical Treatment of Recurrent Endometrial Cancer: Time for a Paradigm Shift.
Papadia, Andrea; Bellati, Filippo; Ditto, Antonino; Bogani, Giorgio; Gasparri, Maria Luisa; Di Donato, Violante; Martinelli, Fabio; Lorusso, Domenica; Benedetti-Panici, Pierluigi; Raspagliesi, Francesco
2015-12-01
Although surgery represents the cornerstone treatment of endometrial cancer at initial diagnosis, scarce data are available in recurrent setting. The purpose of this study was to review the outcome of surgery in these patients. Medical records of all patients undergoing surgery for recurrent endometrial cancer at NCI Milano between January 2003 and January 2014 were reviewed. Survival was determined from the time of surgery for recurrence to last follow-up. Survival was estimated using Kaplan-Meier methods. Differences in survival were analyzed using the log-rank test. The Fisher's exact test was used to compare optimal versus suboptimal cytoreduction against possible predictive factors. Sixty-four patients were identified. Median age was 66 years. Recurrences were multiple in 38 % of the cases. Optimal cytoreduction was achieved in 65.6 %. Median OR time was 165 min, median postoperative hemoglobin drop was 2.4 g/dl, and median length hospital stay was 5.5 days. Eleven patients developed postoperative complications, but only four required surgical management. Estimated 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) was 42 and 19 % in optimally and suboptimally cytoreduced patients, respectively. At multivariate analysis, only residual disease was associated with PFS. Estimated 5-year overall survival (OS) was 60 and 30 % in optimally and suboptimally cytoreduced patients, respectively. At multivariate analysis, residual disease and histotype were associated with OS. At multivariate analysis, only performance status was associated with optimal cytoreduction. Secondary cytoreduction in endometrial cancer is associated with long PFS and OS. The only factors associated with improved long-term outcome are the absence of residual disease at the end of surgical resection and histotype.
Optimum community energy storage system for PV energy time-shift
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parra, David; Gillott, Mark; Norman, Stuart A.; Walker, Gavin S.
2015-01-01
Highlights: • The performance and economic benefits of Pb-acid and Li-ion batteries are compared. • The business case during the decarbonisation pathway is assessed. • The aggregation from a community approach reduced the levelised cost by 37% by 2020. • For a forecast price of 16.3 p/kW h Li-ion battery cost must be less than 275 £/kW h. • A 10% subsidy will be needed for Li-ion batteries to achieve the 2020 forecast. - Abstract: A novel method has been designed to obtain the optimum community energy storage (CES) systems for end user applications. The method evaluates the optimum performance (including the round trip efficiency and annual discharge), levelised cost (LCOES), the internal rate of return and the levelised value of suitable energy storage technologies. A complimentary methodology was developed including three reference years (2012, 2020 and zero carbon year) to show the evolution of the business case during the low carbon transition. The method follows a community approach and the optimum CES system was calculated as a function of the size of the community. In this work, this method was put in practice with lead-acid (PbA) and lithium-ion battery (Li-ion) technologies when performing PV energy time-shift using real demand data from a single home to a 100-home community. The community approach reduced the LCOES down to 0.30 £/kW h and 0.11 £/kW h in 2020 and the zero carbon year respectively. These values meant a cost reduction by 37% and 66% regarding a single home. Results demonstrated that PbA batteries needs from 1.5 to 2.5 times more capacity than Li-ion chemistry to reduce the LCOES, the worst case scenario being for the smallest communities, because the more spiky demand profile required proportionately larger PbA battery capacities
Time Series Decomposition into Oscillation Components and Phase Estimation.
Matsuda, Takeru; Komaki, Fumiyasu
2017-02-01
Many time series are naturally considered as a superposition of several oscillation components. For example, electroencephalogram (EEG) time series include oscillation components such as alpha, beta, and gamma. We propose a method for decomposing time series into such oscillation components using state-space models. Based on the concept of random frequency modulation, gaussian linear state-space models for oscillation components are developed. In this model, the frequency of an oscillator fluctuates by noise. Time series decomposition is accomplished by this model like the Bayesian seasonal adjustment method. Since the model parameters are estimated from data by the empirical Bayes' method, the amplitudes and the frequencies of oscillation components are determined in a data-driven manner. Also, the appropriate number of oscillation components is determined with the Akaike information criterion (AIC). In this way, the proposed method provides a natural decomposition of the given time series into oscillation components. In neuroscience, the phase of neural time series plays an important role in neural information processing. The proposed method can be used to estimate the phase of each oscillation component and has several advantages over a conventional method based on the Hilbert transform. Thus, the proposed method enables an investigation of the phase dynamics of time series. Numerical results show that the proposed method succeeds in extracting intermittent oscillations like ripples and detecting the phase reset phenomena. We apply the proposed method to real data from various fields such as astronomy, ecology, tidology, and neuroscience.
Liu, Hongjian; Wang, Zidong; Shen, Bo; Alsaadi, Fuad E.
2016-07-01
This paper deals with the robust H∞ state estimation problem for a class of memristive recurrent neural networks with stochastic time-delays. The stochastic time-delays under consideration are governed by a Bernoulli-distributed stochastic sequence. The purpose of the addressed problem is to design the robust state estimator such that the dynamics of the estimation error is exponentially stable in the mean square, and the prescribed ? performance constraint is met. By utilizing the difference inclusion theory and choosing a proper Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, the existence condition of the desired estimator is derived. Based on it, the explicit expression of the estimator gain is given in terms of the solution to a linear matrix inequality. Finally, a numerical example is employed to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed estimation approach.
Soft sensor for real-time cement fineness estimation.
Stanišić, Darko; Jorgovanović, Nikola; Popov, Nikola; Čongradac, Velimir
2015-03-01
This paper describes the design and implementation of soft sensors to estimate cement fineness. Soft sensors are mathematical models that use available data to provide real-time information on process variables when the information, for whatever reason, is not available by direct measurement. In this application, soft sensors are used to provide information on process variable normally provided by off-line laboratory tests performed at large time intervals. Cement fineness is one of the crucial parameters that define the quality of produced cement. Providing real-time information on cement fineness using soft sensors can overcome limitations and problems that originate from a lack of information between two laboratory tests. The model inputs were selected from candidate process variables using an information theoretic approach. Models based on multi-layer perceptrons were developed, and their ability to estimate cement fineness of laboratory samples was analyzed. Models that had the best performance, and capacity to adopt changes in the cement grinding circuit were selected to implement soft sensors. Soft sensors were tested using data from a continuous cement production to demonstrate their use in real-time fineness estimation. Their performance was highly satisfactory, and the sensors proved to be capable of providing valuable information on cement grinding circuit performance. After successful off-line tests, soft sensors were implemented and installed in the control room of a cement factory. Results on the site confirm results obtained by tests conducted during soft sensor development. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Efficient Implementation of a Symbol Timing Estimator for Broadband PLC.
Nombela, Francisco; García, Enrique; Mateos, Raúl; Hernández, Álvaro
2015-08-21
Broadband Power Line Communications (PLC) have taken advantage of the research advances in multi-carrier modulations to mitigate frequency selective fading, and their adoption opens up a myriad of applications in the field of sensory and automation systems, multimedia connectivity or smart spaces. Nonetheless, the use of these multi-carrier modulations, such as Wavelet-OFDM, requires a highly accurate symbol timing estimation for reliably recovering of transmitted data. Furthermore, the PLC channel presents some particularities that prevent the direct use of previous synchronization algorithms proposed in wireless communication systems. Therefore more research effort should be involved in the design and implementation of novel and robust synchronization algorithms for PLC, thus enabling real-time synchronization. This paper proposes a symbol timing estimator for broadband PLC based on cross-correlation with multilevel complementary sequences or Zadoff-Chu sequences and its efficient implementation in a FPGA; the obtained results show a 90% of success rate in symbol timing estimation for a certain PLC channel model and a reduced resource consumption for its implementation in a Xilinx Kyntex FPGA.
Efficient Implementation of a Symbol Timing Estimator for Broadband PLC
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Francisco Nombela
2015-08-01
Full Text Available Broadband Power Line Communications (PLC have taken advantage of the research advances in multi-carrier modulations to mitigate frequency selective fading, and their adoption opens up a myriad of applications in the field of sensory and automation systems, multimedia connectivity or smart spaces. Nonetheless, the use of these multi-carrier modulations, such as Wavelet-OFDM, requires a highly accurate symbol timing estimation for reliably recovering of transmitted data. Furthermore, the PLC channel presents some particularities that prevent the direct use of previous synchronization algorithms proposed in wireless communication systems. Therefore more research effort should be involved in the design and implementation of novel and robust synchronization algorithms for PLC, thus enabling real-time synchronization. This paper proposes a symbol timing estimator for broadband PLC based on cross-correlation with multilevel complementary sequences or Zadoff-Chu sequences and its efficient implementation in a FPGA; the obtained results show a 90% of success rate in symbol timing estimation for a certain PLC channel model and a reduced resource consumption for its implementation in a Xilinx Kyntex FPGA.
Time-to-contact estimation modulated by implied friction.
Yamada, Yuki; Sasaki, Kyoshiro; Miura, Kayo
2014-01-01
The present study demonstrated that friction cues for target motion affect time-to-contact (TTC) estimation. A circular target moved in a linear path with a constant velocity and was gradually occluded by a static rectangle. The target moved with forward and backward spins or without spin. Observers were asked to respond at the time when the moving target appeared to pass the occluder. The results showed that TTC was significantly longer in the backward spin condition than in the forward and without-spin conditions. Moreover, similar results were obtained when a sound was used to imply friction. Our findings indicate that the observer's experiential knowledge of motion coupled with friction intuitively modulated their TTC estimation.
Seasonal adjustment methods and real time trend-cycle estimation
Bee Dagum, Estela
2016-01-01
This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportat...
Time Delay Estimation in Room Acoustic Environments: An Overview
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Benesty Jacob
2006-01-01
Full Text Available Time delay estimation has been a research topic of significant practical importance in many fields (radar, sonar, seismology, geophysics, ultrasonics, hands-free communications, etc.. It is a first stage that feeds into subsequent processing blocks for identifying, localizing, and tracking radiating sources. This area has made remarkable advances in the past few decades, and is continuing to progress, with an aim to create processors that are tolerant to both noise and reverberation. This paper presents a systematic overview of the state-of-the-art of time-delay-estimation algorithms ranging from the simple cross-correlation method to the advanced blind channel identification based techniques. We discuss the pros and cons of each individual algorithm, and outline their inherent relationships. We also provide experimental results to illustrate their performance differences in room acoustic environments where reverberation and noise are commonly encountered.
Schroedinger operators - geometric estimates in terms of the occupation time
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Demuth, M.; Kirsch, W.; McGillivray, I.
1995-01-01
The difference of Schroedinger and Dirichlet semigroups is expressed in terms of the Laplace transform of the Brownian motion occupation time. This implies quantitative upper and lower bounds for the operator norms of the corresponding resolvent differences. One spectral theoretical consequence is an estimate for the eigenfunction for a Schroedinger operator in a ball where the potential is given as a cone indicator function. 12 refs
Estimation of Continuous Time Models in Economics: an Overview
Clifford R. Wymer
2009-01-01
The dynamics of economic behaviour is often developed in theory as a continuous time system. Rigorous estimation and testing of such systems, and the analysis of some aspects of their properties, is of particular importance in distinguishing between competing hypotheses and the resulting models. The consequences for the international economy during the past eighteen months of failures in the financial sector, and particularly the banking sector, make it essential that the dynamics of financia...
Haire, Julia Christine Lydia; Ferguson, Sally Anne; Tilleard, James D; Negus, Paul; Dorrian, Jillian; Thomas, Matthew Jw
2012-06-01
To evaluate the effect of working consecutive night shifts on sleep time, prior wakefulness, perceived levels of fatigue and psychomotor performance in a group of Australian emergency registrars. A prospective observational study with a repeated within-subjects component was conducted. Sleep time was determined using sleep diaries and activity monitors. Subjective fatigue levels and reciprocal reaction times were evaluated before and after day and night shifts. A total of 11 registrars participated in the study with 120 shifts analysed. Sleep time was found to be similar during consecutive night and day shifts. The mean number of hours spent awake before the end of a night shift was 14.33. Subjective fatigue scores were worst at the end of a night shift. There was no difference in reciprocal reaction time between the end of night shift and the start of day shift. Registrars sleep a similar amount of time surrounding night and day shifts. Despite reporting the highest levels of fatigue at the end of a night shift, there is no significant difference in reaction times at the end of night shift compared with the beginning of day shift. This correlates with the finding that at the end of night shift the registrars have been awake for less than 16 h, which is the point at which psychomotor performance is expected to decline. © 2012 The Authors. EMA © 2012 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oliveira, Boaz G.
2014-01-01
Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • This paper definitively discusses the interaction strength. • Analyses of the red-shifts and blue-shift. • Stretch frequencies of the hydrogen bonds and pnicogen bonds in heterocyclic compounds. • Theoretical calculations derived from topological parameters of the Quantum Theory of Atoms in Molecules (QTAIM). • The analysis of the Natural Bond Orbital (NBO) in line with the Bent’s rule of the chemical bonding. - Abstract: The occurrence of pnicogen bonds (N⋯P) and hydrogen bonds (F⋯H or Cl⋯H) in heterocyclic complexes formed by C 2 H 5 N⋯PH 3 , C 2 H 5 N⋯PH 2 F and C 2 H 5 N⋯PH 2 Cl was investigated at the B3LYP/6-311++G(d,p) level of theory. Analysis of the infrared spectra revealed the appearance of both red and blue shifts for the P–H bonds. However, in the case of the P–F and P–Cl bonds only red shifts were observed. The phenomenology of these vibration modes was interpreted on the basis of the QTAIM atomic radii as well as the contributions of the s and p orbitals determined via NBO calculations. The results of this latter investigation are consistent with the rehybridization theory and the Bent rule for chemical bonding. The charge transfer between N and P was determined in order to verify whether these atoms present an acid or base profile upon the formation of the pnicogen bonds
Tsunami Amplitude Estimation from Real-Time GNSS.
Jeffries, C.; MacInnes, B. T.; Melbourne, T. I.
2017-12-01
Tsunami early warning systems currently comprise modeling of observations from the global seismic network, deep-ocean DART buoys, and a global distribution of tide gauges. While these tools work well for tsunamis traveling teleseismic distances, saturation of seismic magnitude estimation in the near field can result in significant underestimation of tsunami excitation for local warning. Moreover, DART buoy and tide gauge observations cannot be used to rectify the underestimation in the available time, typically 10-20 minutes, before local runup occurs. Real-time GNSS measurements of coseismic offsets may be used to estimate finite faulting within 1-2 minutes and, in turn, tsunami excitation for local warning purposes. We describe here a tsunami amplitude estimation algorithm; implemented for the Cascadia subduction zone, that uses continuous GNSS position streams to estimate finite faulting. The system is based on a time-domain convolution of fault slip that uses a pre-computed catalog of hydrodynamic Green's functions generated with the GeoClaw shallow-water wave simulation software and maps seismic slip along each section of the fault to points located off the Cascadia coast in 20m of water depth and relies on the principle of the linearity in tsunami wave propagation. The system draws continuous slip estimates from a message broker, convolves the slip with appropriate Green's functions which are then superimposed to produce wave amplitude at each coastal location. The maximum amplitude and its arrival time are then passed into a database for subsequent monitoring and display. We plan on testing this system using a suite of synthetic earthquakes calculated for Cascadia whose ground motions are simulated at 500 existing Cascadia GPS sites, as well as real earthquakes for which we have continuous GNSS time series and surveyed runup heights, including Maule, Chile 2010 and Tohoku, Japan 2011. This system has been implemented in the CWU Geodesy Lab for the Cascadia
Grant, Crystal Leigh; Dorrian, Jillian; Coates, Alison Maree; Pajcin, Maja; Kennaway, David John; Wittert, Gary Allen; Heilbronn, Leonie Kaye; Vedova, Chris Della; Gupta, Charlotte Cecilia; Banks, Siobhan
2017-10-07
This study examined the impact of eating during simulated night shift on performance and subjective complaints. Subjects were randomized to eating at night (n=5; 23.2 ± 5.5 y) or not eating at night (n=5; 26.2 ± 6.4 y). All participants were given one sleep opportunity of 8 h (22:00 h-06:00 h) before transitioning to the night shift protocol. During the four days of simulated night shift participants were awake from 16:00 h-10:00 h with a daytime sleep of 6 h (10:00 h-16:00 h). In the simulated night shift protocol, meals were provided at ≈0700 h, 1900 h and 0130 h (eating at night); or ≈0700 h, 0930 h, 1410 h and 1900 h (not eating at night). Subjects completed sleepiness, hunger and gastric complaint scales, a Digit Symbol Substitution Task and a 10-min Psychomotor Vigilance Task. Increased sleepiness and performance impairment was evident in both conditions at 0400 h (phunger and a small but significant elevation in stomach upset across the night (p<0.026). Eating at night was associated with elevated bloating on night one, which decreased across the protocol. Restricting food intake may limit performance impairments at night. Dietary recommendations to improve night-shift performance must also consider worker comfort.
Bonham, Maxine P; Leung, Gloria K W; Davis, Rochelle; Sletten, Tracey L; Murgia, Chiara; Young, Morag J; Eikelis, Nina; Lambert, Elisabeth A; Huggins, Catherine E
2018-03-14
Shift work is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Shift workers who are awake overnight and sleep during the day are misaligned with their body's endogenous circadian rhythm. Eating at night contributes to this increased risk of CVD by forcing the body to actively break down and process nutrients at night. This pilot study aims to determine whether altering meal timing overnight, in a shift working population, will impact favourably on modifiable risk factors for CVD (postprandial bplasma lipids and glucose concentration). A randomised cross-over study with two 4-week test periods, separated by a minimum of a 2-week washout will be undertaken. The effectiveness of redistributing energy intake overnight versus ad libitum eating patterns on CVD risk factors will be examined in night shift workers (n=20), using a standard acute test meal challenge protocol. Primary outcomes (postprandial lipids and glucose) will be compared between the two conditions: post-intervention and post-control period using analysis of variance. Potential effect size estimates to inform sample size calculations for a main trial will also be generated. Ethics approval has been granted by the Monash University Human Research Ethics Committee (2017-8619-10329). Outcomes from this study will determine whether eliminating food intake for a defined period at night (1-6 am) impacts favourably on metabolic risk factors for CVD in night shift workers. Collective results from this novel trial will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, and national and international presentations. The results are essential to inform health promotion policies and guidelines for shift workers, especially those who aim to improve their metabolic health. ACTRN12617000791336; Pre-results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.
Minimum Distance Estimation on Time Series Analysis With Little Data
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Tekin, Hakan
2001-01-01
.... Minimum distance estimation has been demonstrated better standard approaches, including maximum likelihood estimators and least squares, in estimating statistical distribution parameters with very small data sets...
Analytical model for real time, noninvasive estimation of blood glucose level.
Adhyapak, Anoop; Sidley, Matthew; Venkataraman, Jayanti
2014-01-01
The paper presents an analytical model to estimate blood glucose level from measurements made non-invasively and in real time by an antenna strapped to a patient's wrist. Some promising success has been shown by the RIT ETA Lab research group that an antenna's resonant frequency can track, in real time, changes in glucose concentration. Based on an in-vitro study of blood samples of diabetic patients, the paper presents a modified Cole-Cole model that incorporates a factor to represent the change in glucose level. A calibration technique using the input impedance technique is discussed and the results show a good estimation as compared to the glucose meter readings. An alternate calibration methodology has been developed that is based on the shift in the antenna resonant frequency using an equivalent circuit model containing a shunt capacitor to represent the shift in resonant frequency with changing glucose levels. Work under progress is the optimization of the technique with a larger sample of patients.
Real-time estimation of differential piston at the LBT
Böhm, Michael; Pott, Jörg-Uwe; Sawodny, Oliver; Herbst, Tom; Kürster, Martin
2014-07-01
In this paper, we present and compare different strategies to minimize the effects of telescope vibrations to the differential piston (OPD) for LINC/NIRVANA at the LBT using an accelerometer feedforward compensation approach. We summarize why this technology is of importance for LINC/NIRVANA, but also for future telescopes and instruments. We outline the estimation problem in general and its specifics at the LBT. Model based estimation and broadband filtering techniques can be used to solve the estimation task, each having its own advantages and disadvantages, which will be discussed. Simulation results and measurements at the LBT are shown to motivate and support our choice of the estimation algorithm for the instrument LINC/NIRVANA. We explain our laboratory setup aimed at imitating the vibration behaviour at the LBT in general, and the M2 as main contributor in particular, and we demonstrate the controller's ability to suppress vibrations in the frequency range of 8 Hz to 60 Hz. In this range, telescope vibrations are the most dominant disturbance to the optical path. For our measurements, we introduce a disturbance time series which has a frequency spectrum comparable to what can be measured at the LBT on a typical night. We show promising experimental results, indicating the ability to suppress differential piston induced by telescope vibrations by a factor of about 5 (RMS), which is significantly better than any currently commissioned system.
Investigation of metabolites for estimating blood deposition time.
Lech, Karolina; Liu, Fan; Davies, Sarah K; Ackermann, Katrin; Ang, Joo Ern; Middleton, Benita; Revell, Victoria L; Raynaud, Florence J; Hoveijn, Igor; Hut, Roelof A; Skene, Debra J; Kayser, Manfred
2018-01-01
Trace deposition timing reflects a novel concept in forensic molecular biology involving the use of rhythmic biomarkers for estimating the time within a 24-h day/night cycle a human biological sample was left at the crime scene, which in principle allows verifying a sample donor's alibi. Previously, we introduced two circadian hormones for trace deposition timing and recently demonstrated that messenger RNA (mRNA) biomarkers significantly improve time prediction accuracy. Here, we investigate the suitability of metabolites measured using a targeted metabolomics approach, for trace deposition timing. Analysis of 171 plasma metabolites collected around the clock at 2-h intervals for 36 h from 12 male participants under controlled laboratory conditions identified 56 metabolites showing statistically significant oscillations, with peak times falling into three day/night time categories: morning/noon, afternoon/evening and night/early morning. Time prediction modelling identified 10 independently contributing metabolite biomarkers, which together achieved prediction accuracies expressed as AUC of 0.81, 0.86 and 0.90 for these three time categories respectively. Combining metabolites with previously established hormone and mRNA biomarkers in time prediction modelling resulted in an improved prediction accuracy reaching AUCs of 0.85, 0.89 and 0.96 respectively. The additional impact of metabolite biomarkers, however, was rather minor as the previously established model with melatonin, cortisol and three mRNA biomarkers achieved AUC values of 0.88, 0.88 and 0.95 for the same three time categories respectively. Nevertheless, the selected metabolites could become practically useful in scenarios where RNA marker information is unavailable such as due to RNA degradation. This is the first metabolomics study investigating circulating metabolites for trace deposition timing, and more work is needed to fully establish their usefulness for this forensic purpose.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nisser A. Umar
2011-02-01
Full Text Available Aiming to assess the impact of the intervention in reducing the patients’ waiting time in the clinic, two surveys were conducted before and after task shifting intervention in an anti-retroviral (ARV clinic at the Specialist Hospital, Bauchi, Nigeria in November 2008 and April 2009, respectively. Before the task shifting, six nurses from the clinic were trained on integrated management of adolescent and adult illness, as well as on the principle and guidelines for the anti-retroviral therapy, after which their schedule in the clinic was broadened to include seeing HIV patients presenting for routine refill and follow-up visits. In this study, fifty-six and sixty patients, respectively out of 186 and 202 who attended the clinic on the days of the pre- and post-intervention surveys, were randomly sampled. Data on patients’ sex, age and marital status, whether patient a first timer or follow up visitor and the time spent in the clinic on that day as well as the number and composition of staff and equipment in the clinic was collected. The difference in waiting time spent between the first group before task shifting and second group after task shifting was statistically analyzed and significance tested using unpaired t- test. There was a reduction in the average waiting time for patients attending the clinic from 6.48 h before task shifting to 4.35 h after task shifting. The difference of mean was -2.13 h, with 95% CI: -2.44:-1.82 hours and the test of significance by unpaired t-test P
Religious affiliation at time of death - Global estimates and projections.
Skirbekk, Vegard; Todd, Megan; Stonawski, Marcin
2018-03-01
Religious affiliation influences societal practices regarding death and dying, including palliative care, religiously acceptable health service procedures, funeral rites and beliefs about an afterlife. We aimed to estimate and project religious affiliation at the time of death globally, as this information has been lacking. We compiled data on demographic information and religious affiliation from more than 2500 surveys, registers and censuses covering 198 nations/territories. We present estimates of religious affiliation at the time of death as of 2010, projections up to and including 2060, taking into account trends in mortality, religious conversion, intergenerational transmission of religion, differential fertility, and gross migration flows, by age and sex. We find that Christianity continues to be the most common religion at death, although its share will fall from 37% to 31% of global deaths between 2010 and 2060. The share of individuals identifying as Muslim at the time of death increases from 21% to 24%. The share of religiously unaffiliated will peak at 17% in 2035 followed by a slight decline thereafter. In specific regions, such as Europe, the unaffiliated share will continue to rises from 14% to 21% throughout the period. Religious affiliation at the time of death is changing globally, with distinct regional patterns. This could affect spatial variation in healthcare and social customs relating to death and dying.
Real-time gaze estimation via pupil center tracking
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cazzato Dario
2018-02-01
Full Text Available Automatic gaze estimation not based on commercial and expensive eye tracking hardware solutions can enable several applications in the fields of human computer interaction (HCI and human behavior analysis. It is therefore not surprising that several related techniques and methods have been investigated in recent years. However, very few camera-based systems proposed in the literature are both real-time and robust. In this work, we propose a real-time user-calibration-free gaze estimation system that does not need person-dependent calibration, can deal with illumination changes and head pose variations, and can work with a wide range of distances from the camera. Our solution is based on a 3-D appearance-based method that processes the images from a built-in laptop camera. Real-time performance is obtained by combining head pose information with geometrical eye features to train a machine learning algorithm. Our method has been validated on a data set of images of users in natural environments, and shows promising results. The possibility of a real-time implementation, combined with the good quality of gaze tracking, make this system suitable for various HCI applications.
Estimation of dynamic flux profiles from metabolic time series data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chou I-Chun
2012-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Advances in modern high-throughput techniques of molecular biology have enabled top-down approaches for the estimation of parameter values in metabolic systems, based on time series data. Special among them is the recent method of dynamic flux estimation (DFE, which uses such data not only for parameter estimation but also for the identification of functional forms of the processes governing a metabolic system. DFE furthermore provides diagnostic tools for the evaluation of model validity and of the quality of a model fit beyond residual errors. Unfortunately, DFE works only when the data are more or less complete and the system contains as many independent fluxes as metabolites. These drawbacks may be ameliorated with other types of estimation and information. However, such supplementations incur their own limitations. In particular, assumptions must be made regarding the functional forms of some processes and detailed kinetic information must be available, in addition to the time series data. Results The authors propose here a systematic approach that supplements DFE and overcomes some of its shortcomings. Like DFE, the approach is model-free and requires only minimal assumptions. If sufficient time series data are available, the approach allows the determination of a subset of fluxes that enables the subsequent applicability of DFE to the rest of the flux system. The authors demonstrate the procedure with three artificial pathway systems exhibiting distinct characteristics and with actual data of the trehalose pathway in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Conclusions The results demonstrate that the proposed method successfully complements DFE under various situations and without a priori assumptions regarding the model representation. The proposed method also permits an examination of whether at all, to what degree, or within what range the available time series data can be validly represented in a particular functional format of
Statistical methods of parameter estimation for deterministically chaotic time series
Pisarenko, V. F.; Sornette, D.
2004-03-01
We discuss the possibility of applying some standard statistical methods (the least-square method, the maximum likelihood method, and the method of statistical moments for estimation of parameters) to deterministically chaotic low-dimensional dynamic system (the logistic map) containing an observational noise. A “segmentation fitting” maximum likelihood (ML) method is suggested to estimate the structural parameter of the logistic map along with the initial value x1 considered as an additional unknown parameter. The segmentation fitting method, called “piece-wise” ML, is similar in spirit but simpler and has smaller bias than the “multiple shooting” previously proposed. Comparisons with different previously proposed techniques on simulated numerical examples give favorable results (at least, for the investigated combinations of sample size N and noise level). Besides, unlike some suggested techniques, our method does not require the a priori knowledge of the noise variance. We also clarify the nature of the inherent difficulties in the statistical analysis of deterministically chaotic time series and the status of previously proposed Bayesian approaches. We note the trade off between the need of using a large number of data points in the ML analysis to decrease the bias (to guarantee consistency of the estimation) and the unstable nature of dynamical trajectories with exponentially fast loss of memory of the initial condition. The method of statistical moments for the estimation of the parameter of the logistic map is discussed. This method seems to be the unique method whose consistency for deterministically chaotic time series is proved so far theoretically (not only numerically).
Continuous Fine-Fault Estimation with Real-Time GNSS
Norford, B. B.; Melbourne, T. I.; Szeliga, W. M.; Santillan, V. M.; Scrivner, C.; Senko, J.; Larsen, D.
2017-12-01
Thousands of real-time telemetered GNSS stations operate throughout the circum-Pacific that may be used for rapid earthquake characterization and estimation of local tsunami excitation. We report on the development of a GNSS-based finite-fault inversion system that continuously estimates slip using real-time GNSS position streams from the Cascadia subduction zone and which is being expanded throughout the circum-Pacific. The system uses 1 Hz precise point position streams computed in the ITRF14 reference frame using clock and satellite orbit corrections from the IGS. The software is implemented as seven independent modules that filter time series using Kalman filters, trigger and estimate coseismic offsets, invert for slip using a non-negative least squares method developed by Lawson and Hanson (1974) and elastic half-space Green's Functions developed by Okada (1985), smooth the results temporally and spatially, and write the resulting streams of time-dependent slip to a RabbitMQ messaging server for use by downstream modules such as tsunami excitation modules. Additional fault models can be easily added to the system for other circum-Pacific subduction zones as additional real-time GNSS data become available. The system is currently being tested using data from well-recorded earthquakes including the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the 2010 Maule earthquake, the 2015 Illapel earthquake, the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, the 2014 Iquique earthquake, the 2010 Mentawai earthquake, the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake, the 2016 Ecuador earthquake, the 2015 Gorkha earthquake, and others. Test data will be fed to the system and the resultant earthquake characterizations will be compared with published earthquake parameters. Seismic events will be assumed to occur on major faults, so, for example, only the San Andreas fault will be considered in Southern California, while the hundreds of other faults in the region will be ignored. Rake will be constrained along each subfault to be
Advances in Time Estimation Methods for Molecular Data.
Kumar, Sudhir; Hedges, S Blair
2016-04-01
Molecular dating has become central to placing a temporal dimension on the tree of life. Methods for estimating divergence times have been developed for over 50 years, beginning with the proposal of molecular clock in 1962. We categorize the chronological development of these methods into four generations based on the timing of their origin. In the first generation approaches (1960s-1980s), a strict molecular clock was assumed to date divergences. In the second generation approaches (1990s), the equality of evolutionary rates between species was first tested and then a strict molecular clock applied to estimate divergence times. The third generation approaches (since ∼2000) account for differences in evolutionary rates across the tree by using a statistical model, obviating the need to assume a clock or to test the equality of evolutionary rates among species. Bayesian methods in the third generation require a specific or uniform prior on the speciation-process and enable the inclusion of uncertainty in clock calibrations. The fourth generation approaches (since 2012) allow rates to vary from branch to branch, but do not need prior selection of a statistical model to describe the rate variation or the specification of speciation model. With high accuracy, comparable to Bayesian approaches, and speeds that are orders of magnitude faster, fourth generation methods are able to produce reliable timetrees of thousands of species using genome scale data. We found that early time estimates from second generation studies are similar to those of third and fourth generation studies, indicating that methodological advances have not fundamentally altered the timetree of life, but rather have facilitated time estimation by enabling the inclusion of more species. Nonetheless, we feel an urgent need for testing the accuracy and precision of third and fourth generation methods, including their robustness to misspecification of priors in the analysis of large phylogenies and data
Sinreich, D.; Jabali, O.; Dellaert, N.P.
2012-01-01
Reducing Emergency Department (ED) overcrowding in the hope of improving the ED's operational efficiency and health care delivery ranks high on every health care decision maker's wish list. The current study concentrates on developing efficient work shift schedules that make the best use of current
Timing of food intake during simulated night shift impacts glucose metabolism: A controlled study.
Grant, Crystal L; Coates, Alison M; Dorrian, Jillian; Kennaway, David J; Wittert, Gary A; Heilbronn, Leonie K; Pajcin, Maja; Della Vedova, Chris; Gupta, Charlotte C; Banks, Siobhan
2017-01-01
Eating during the night may increase the risk for obesity and type 2 diabetes in shift workers. This study examined the impact of either eating or not eating a meal at night on glucose metabolism. Participants underwent four nights of simulated night work (SW1-4, 16:00-10:00 h, night (NE; n = 4, meals; 07:00, 19:00 and 01:30 h) or not eating at night (NEN; n = 7, meals; 07:00 h, 09:30, 16:10 and 19:00 h) condition. Meal tolerance tests were conducted post breakfast on pre-night shift (PRE), SW4 and following return to day shift (RTDS), and glucose and insulin area under the curve (AUC) were calculated. Mixed-effects ANOVAs were used with fixed effects of condition and day, and their interactions, and a random effect of subject identifier on the intercept. Fasting glucose and insulin were not altered by day or condition. There were significant effects of day and condition × day (both p night (p = 0.040) and not eating at night (p = 0.006) conditions. Results in this small, healthy sample suggest that not eating at night may limit the metabolic consequences of simulated night work. Further study is needed to explore whether matching food intake to the biological clock could reduce the burden of type 2 diabetes in shift workers.
Time for a shift in crop production: embracing complexity through diversity at all levels
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Østergård, Hanne; Finckh, M.R.; Fontaine, Laurence
2009-01-01
A radical shift in our approach to crop production is needed to ensure food security and to address the problems of soil degradation, loss of biodiversity, polluted and restricted water supplies, coupled with a future of fossil fuel limitations and increasingly variable climatic conditions...
Time for a shift in crop production: embracing complexity through diversity at all levels
Ostergard, H.; Finckh, M.R.; Fontaine, L.; Goldringer, I.; Hoad, S.; Kristensen, K.; Lammerts Van Bueren, E.; Mascher, F.; Munk, L.; Wolfe, M.S.
2009-01-01
A radical shift in our approach to crop production is needed to ensure food security and to address the problems of soil degradation, loss of biodiversity, polluted and restricted water supplies, coupled with a future of fossil fuel limitations and increasingly variable climatic conditions. An
Development and investigation of aggregate models for nuclear objects with time shifts
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gharakhanlou, J.; Kazachkov, I.V.
2012-01-01
The development and investigation of aggregate models for nuclear objects with shift arguments are discussed.The nonlinear differential equations of the model are described and the Cauchy problem is stated. The specific feature of the mathematical model for potentially hazardous nuclear objects are analyzed and computer simulation is presented
Quémart, Pauline; Casalis, Séverine
2014-01-01
We report two experiments that investigated whether phonological and/or orthographic shifts in a base word interfere with morphological processing by French 3rd, 4th, and 5th graders and adults (as a control group) along the time course of visual word recognition. In both experiments, prime-target pairs shared four possible relationships:…
Empirical estimation of the arrival time of ICME Shocks
Shaltout, Mosalam
Empirical estimation of the arrival time of ICME Shocks Mosalam Shaltout1 ,M.Youssef 1and R.Mawad2 1 National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG) ,Helwan -Cairo-Egypt Email: mosalamshaltout@hotmail.com 2 Faculty of Science-Monifiia University-Physics Department-Shiben Al-Koum -Monifiia-Egypt We are got the Data of the SSC events from Preliminary Reports of the ISGI (Institut de Physique du Globe, France) .Also we are selected the same CME interval 1996-2005 from SOHO/LASCO/C2.We have estimated the arrival time of ICME shocks during solar cycle 23rd (1996-2005), we take the Sudden storm commencement SSC as a indicator of the arrival of CMEs at the Earth's Magnetosphere (ICME).Under our model ,we selected 203 ICME shock-SSC associated events, we got an imperial relation between CME velocity and their travel time, from which we obtained high correlation between them, R=0.75.
Estimation of vegetation cover resilience from satellite time series
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
T. Simoniello
2008-07-01
Full Text Available Resilience is a fundamental concept for understanding vegetation as a dynamic component of the climate system. It expresses the ability of ecosystems to tolerate disturbances and to recover their initial state. Recovery times are basic parameters of the vegetation's response to forcing and, therefore, are essential for describing realistic vegetation within dynamical models. Healthy vegetation tends to rapidly recover from shock and to persist in growth and expansion. On the contrary, climatic and anthropic stress can reduce resilience thus favouring persistent decrease in vegetation activity.
In order to characterize resilience, we analyzed the time series 1982–2003 of 8 km GIMMS AVHRR-NDVI maps of the Italian territory. Persistence probability of negative and positive trends was estimated according to the vegetation cover class, altitude, and climate. Generally, mean recovery times from negative trends were shorter than those estimated for positive trends, as expected for vegetation of healthy status. Some signatures of inefficient resilience were found in high-level mountainous areas and in the Mediterranean sub-tropical ones. This analysis was refined by aggregating pixels according to phenology. This multitemporal clustering synthesized information on vegetation cover, climate, and orography rather well. The consequent persistence estimations confirmed and detailed hints obtained from the previous analyses. Under the same climatic regime, different vegetation resilience levels were found. In particular, within the Mediterranean sub-tropical climate, clustering was able to identify features with different persistence levels in areas that are liable to different levels of anthropic pressure. Moreover, it was capable of enhancing reduced vegetation resilience also in the southern areas under Warm Temperate sub-continental climate. The general consistency of the obtained results showed that, with the help of suited analysis
Estimation of modal parameters using bilinear joint time frequency distributions
Roshan-Ghias, A.; Shamsollahi, M. B.; Mobed, M.; Behzad, M.
2007-07-01
In this paper, a new method is proposed for modal parameter estimation using time-frequency representations. Smoothed Pseudo Wigner-Ville distribution which is a member of the Cohen's class distributions is used to decouple vibration modes completely in order to study each mode separately. This distribution reduces cross-terms which are troublesome in Wigner-Ville distribution and retains the resolution as well. The method was applied to highly damped systems, and results were superior to those obtained via other conventional methods.
Time-to-impact estimation in passive missile warning systems
Şahıngıl, Mehmet Cihan
2017-05-01
A missile warning system can detect the incoming missile threat(s) and automatically cue the other Electronic Attack (EA) systems in the suit, such as Directed Infrared Counter Measure (DIRCM) system and/or Counter Measure Dispensing System (CMDS). Most missile warning systems are currently based on passive sensor technology operating in either Solar Blind Ultraviolet (SBUV) or Midwave Infrared (MWIR) bands on which there is an intensive emission from the exhaust plume of the threatening missile. Although passive missile warning systems have some clear advantages over pulse-Doppler radar (PDR) based active missile warning systems, they show poorer performance in terms of time-to-impact (TTI) estimation which is critical for optimizing the countermeasures and also "passive kill assessment". In this paper, we consider this problem, namely, TTI estimation from passive measurements and present a TTI estimation scheme which can be used in passive missile warning systems. Our problem formulation is based on Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). The algorithm uses the area parameter of the threat plume which is derived from the used image frame.
Niu, Shu-Fen; Chung, Min-Huey; Chu, Hsin; Tsai, Jui-Chen; Lin, Chun-Chieh; Liao, Yuan-Mei; Ou, Keng-Liang; O'Brien, Anthony Paul; Chou, Kuei-Ru
2015-07-01
This study explored the differences in the circadian salivary cortisol profiles between nurses working night shifts and regular day shifts following a slow rotating shift schedule to assess the number of days required for adjusting the circadian rhythm of salivary cortisol levels in nurses working consecutive night shifts and the number of days off required to restore the diurnal circadian rhythm of salivary cortisol levels. This was a prospective, longitudinal, parallel-group comparative study. The participants were randomly assigned to night and day-shift groups, and saliva samples were collected to measure their cortisol levels and circadian secretion patterns. Significant differences were observed in the overall salivary cortisol pattern parameters (cortisol awakening response, changes in cortisol profiles between 6 and 12h after awakening, and changes in cortisol profiles between 30 min and 12 h after awakening) from Days 2 to 4 of the workdays between both groups. However, on Day 2 of the days off, both groups exhibited similar cortisol profiles and the cortisol profiles in the night-shift group were restored. Nurses working night shifts require at least 4 days to adjust their circadian rhythms of cortisol secretions. Moreover, on changing from night shift to other shifts, nurses must be allowed more than 2 days off work. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Role of excited state solvent fluctuations on time-dependent fluorescence Stokes shift
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Li, Tanping, E-mail: tanping@lsu.edu, E-mail: revatik@lsu.edu; Kumar, Revati, E-mail: tanping@lsu.edu, E-mail: revatik@lsu.edu [Department of Chemistry, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 70803 (United States)
2015-11-07
We explore the connection between the solvation dynamics of a chromophore upon photon excitation and equilibrium fluctuations of the solvent. Using molecular dynamics simulations, fluorescence Stokes shift for the tryptophan in Staphylococcus nuclease was examined using both nonequilibrium calculations and linear response theory. When the perturbed and unperturbed surfaces exhibit different solvent equilibrium fluctuations, the linear response approach on the former surface shows agreement with the nonequilibrium process. This agreement is excellent when the perturbed surface exhibits Gaussian statistics and qualitative in the case of an isomerization induced non-Gaussian statistics. However, the linear response theory on the unperturbed surface breaks down even in the presence of Gaussian fluctuations. Experiments also provide evidence of the connection between the excited state solvent fluctuations and the total fluorescence shift. These observations indicate that the equilibrium statistics on the excited state surface characterize the relaxation dynamics of the fluorescence Stokes shift. Our studies specifically analyze the Gaussian fluctuations of the solvent in the complex protein environment and further confirm the role of solvent fluctuations on the excited state surface. The results are consistent with previous investigations, found in the literature, of solutes dissolved in liquids.
An estimation of U.S. gasoline demand. A smooth time-varying cointegration approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Park, Sung Y.; Zhao, Guochang
2010-01-01
In this paper the U.S. gasoline demand from 1976 to 2008 is estimated using a time-varying cointegrating regression. We find that price elasticity increased rapidly during the late 1970s and then decreased until 1987. After a relatively small-scaled 'increase-decrease' cycle from 1987 to 2000, the price elasticity rose again after 2000. The time-varying change of the elasticities may be explained by the proportion of gasoline consumption to income and fluctuation of the degree of necessity. The result of the error correction model shows that a deviation from a long-run equilibrium is corrected quickly, and the welfare analysis illustrates there may be a gain by shifting the tax scheme from income tax to gasoline tax. (author)
An estimation of U.S. gasoline demand. A smooth time-varying cointegration approach
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Park, Sung Y. [Department of Economics, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005 (China); Zhao, Guochang [Research School of Economics, College of Business and Economics, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601 (Australia)
2010-01-15
In this paper the U.S. gasoline demand from 1976 to 2008 is estimated using a time-varying cointegrating regression. We find that price elasticity increased rapidly during the late 1970s and then decreased until 1987. After a relatively small-scaled 'increase-decrease' cycle from 1987 to 2000, the price elasticity rose again after 2000. The time-varying change of the elasticities may be explained by the proportion of gasoline consumption to income and fluctuation of the degree of necessity. The result of the error correction model shows that a deviation from a long-run equilibrium is corrected quickly, and the welfare analysis illustrates there may be a gain by shifting the tax scheme from income tax to gasoline tax. (author)
Challenges in automated estimation of capillary refill time in dogs
Cugmas, Blaž; Spigulis, Janis
2018-02-01
Capillary refill time (CRT) is a part of the cardiorespiratory examination in dogs. Changes in CRT can reflect pathological conditions like shock or anemia. Visual CRT estimation has low repeatability; therefore, optical systems for automated estimation have recently appeared. Since existing systems are unsuitable for use in dogs, we designed a simple, small and portable device, which could be easily used at veterinary clinic. The device was preliminarily tested on several measurement sites in two dogs. Not all measurement sites were suitable for CRT measurements due to underlying tissue optical and mechanical properties. The CRT measurements were possible on the labial mucosa, above the sternum and on the digit where CRT was in the range of values, retrieved from the color video of the visual CRT measurement. It seems that light penetration predominantly governs tissue optical response when the pressure is applied. Therefore, it is important to select a proper light, which reaches only superficial capillaries and does not penetrate deeper. Blue or green light is probably suitable for light skin or mucosa, on the other hand, red or near-infrared might be used for skin with pigmented or thick epidermis. Additionally, further improvements of the device design are considered, like adding a calibrated spring, which would insure application of consistent pressure.
Real-time yield estimation based on deep learning
Rahnemoonfar, Maryam; Sheppard, Clay
2017-05-01
Crop yield estimation is an important task in product management and marketing. Accurate yield prediction helps farmers to make better decision on cultivation practices, plant disease prevention, and the size of harvest labor force. The current practice of yield estimation based on the manual counting of fruits is very time consuming and expensive process and it is not practical for big fields. Robotic systems including Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGV), provide an efficient, cost-effective, flexible, and scalable solution for product management and yield prediction. Recently huge data has been gathered from agricultural field, however efficient analysis of those data is still a challenging task. Computer vision approaches currently face diffident challenges in automatic counting of fruits or flowers including occlusion caused by leaves, branches or other fruits, variance in natural illumination, and scale. In this paper a novel deep convolutional network algorithm was developed to facilitate the accurate yield prediction and automatic counting of fruits and vegetables on the images. Our method is robust to occlusion, shadow, uneven illumination and scale. Experimental results in comparison to the state-of-the art show the effectiveness of our algorithm.
Evaluation of Real-Time Hand Motion Tracking Using a Range Camera and the Mean-Shift Algorithm
Lahamy, H.; Lichti, D.
2011-09-01
Several sensors have been tested for improving the interaction between humans and machines including traditional web cameras, special gloves, haptic devices, cameras providing stereo pairs of images and range cameras. Meanwhile, several methods are described in the literature for tracking hand motion: the Kalman filter, the mean-shift algorithm and the condensation algorithm. In this research, the combination of a range camera and the simple version of the mean-shift algorithm has been evaluated for its capability for hand motion tracking. The evaluation was assessed in terms of position accuracy of the tracking trajectory in x, y and z directions in the camera space and the time difference between image acquisition and image display. Three parameters have been analyzed regarding their influence on the tracking process: the speed of the hand movement, the distance between the camera and the hand and finally the integration time of the camera. Prior to the evaluation, the required warm-up time of the camera has been measured. This study has demonstrated the suitability of the range camera used in combination with the mean-shift algorithm for real-time hand motion tracking but for very high speed hand movement in the traverse plane with respect to the camera, the tracking accuracy is low and requires improvement.
Spangenberg, Lena; Zenger, Markus; Glaesmer, Heide; Brähler, Elmar; Strauss, Bernhard
2018-03-01
The present study aimed to extend the knowledge regarding dimensionality, socio-demographic correlates and shifts in age stereotypes over the past 15 years using a time-sequential design. In 1996 and 2011, we assessed age stereotypes in two independent samples of the German population aged ≥ 45 years ( N = 970 in sample 1, N = 1545 in sample 2). Three scales with six items each were assessed. Two scales cover negative (i.e., rigidity/isolation, burden), and one scale covers positive age stereotypes (wisdom/experience). Dimensionality of the scale, associations with socio-demographic variables and whether the stereotypes have shifted were tested using confirmatory factor analyses, structural equation modeling and analyses of variances. Three dimensions were identified and replicated following an exploratory as well as a confirmatory approach. Age stereotypes did shift between 1996 and 2011 in the dimension burden (i.e., becoming more negative). Our results further underpin the finding that age stereotypes are multifaceted and suggest that dimensions do not change over time. Additionally, our data provide some evidence that societal age stereotypes partly change over time.
Estimating negative binomial parameters from occurrence data with detection times.
Hwang, Wen-Han; Huggins, Richard; Stoklosa, Jakub
2016-11-01
The negative binomial distribution is a common model for the analysis of count data in biology and ecology. In many applications, we may not observe the complete frequency count in a quadrat but only that a species occurred in the quadrat. If only occurrence data are available then the two parameters of the negative binomial distribution, the aggregation index and the mean, are not identifiable. This can be overcome by data augmentation or through modeling the dependence between quadrat occupancies. Here, we propose to record the (first) detection time while collecting occurrence data in a quadrat. We show that under what we call proportionate sampling, where the time to survey a region is proportional to the area of the region, that both negative binomial parameters are estimable. When the mean parameter is larger than two, our proposed approach is more efficient than the data augmentation method developed by Solow and Smith (, Am. Nat. 176, 96-98), and in general is cheaper to conduct. We also investigate the effect of misidentification when collecting negative binomially distributed data, and conclude that, in general, the effect can be simply adjusted for provided that the mean and variance of misidentification probabilities are known. The results are demonstrated in a simulation study and illustrated in several real examples. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Swain, Monalisa; Atreya, Hanudatta S.
2009-01-01
Estimation of secondary structure in polypeptides is important for studying their structure, folding and dynamics. In NMR spectroscopy, such information is generally obtained after sequence specific resonance assignments are completed. We present here a new methodology for assignment of secondary structure type to spin systems in proteins directly from NMR spectra, without prior knowledge of resonance assignments. The methodology, named Combination of Shifts for Secondary Structure Identification in Proteins (CSSI-PRO), involves detection of specific linear combination of backbone 1 H α and 13 C' chemical shifts in a two-dimensional (2D) NMR experiment based on G-matrix Fourier transform (GFT) NMR spectroscopy. Such linear combinations of shifts facilitate editing of residues belonging to α-helical/β-strand regions into distinct spectral regions nearly independent of the amino acid type, thereby allowing the estimation of overall secondary structure content of the protein. Comparison of the predicted secondary structure content with those estimated based on their respective 3D structures and/or the method of Chemical Shift Index for 237 proteins gives a correlation of more than 90% and an overall rmsd of 7.0%, which is comparable to other biophysical techniques used for structural characterization of proteins. Taken together, this methodology has a wide range of applications in NMR spectroscopy such as rapid protein structure determination, monitoring conformational changes in protein-folding/ligand-binding studies and automated resonance assignment
The Time Is Up: Compression of Visual Time Interval Estimations of Bimodal Aperiodic Patterns
Duarte, Fabiola; Lemus, Luis
2017-01-01
The ability to estimate time intervals subserves many of our behaviors and perceptual experiences. However, it is not clear how aperiodic (AP) stimuli affect our perception of time intervals across sensory modalities. To address this question, we evaluated the human capacity to discriminate between two acoustic (A), visual (V) or audiovisual (AV) time intervals of trains of scattered pulses. We first measured the periodicity of those stimuli and then sought for correlations with the accuracy and reaction times (RTs) of the subjects. We found that, for all time intervals tested in our experiment, the visual system consistently perceived AP stimuli as being shorter than the periodic (P) ones. In contrast, such a compression phenomenon was not apparent during auditory trials. Our conclusions are: first, the subjects exposed to P stimuli are more likely to measure their durations accurately. Second, perceptual time compression occurs for AP visual stimuli. Lastly, AV discriminations are determined by A dominance rather than by AV enhancement. PMID:28848406
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ghaderi, A.; Landro, M.; Ghaderi, A.
2005-01-01
Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is being injected into a shallow sand formation at around a 1,000 metre depth at the Sleipner Field located in the North Sea. It is expected that the CO 2 injected in the bottom of the formation, will form a plume consisting of CO 2 accumulating in thin lenses during migration up through the reservoir. Several studies have been published using stacked seismic data from 1994, 1999, 2001 and 2002. A thorough analysis of post-stack seismic data from the Sleipner CO2-Sequestration Pilot Project was conducted. Interpretation of seismic data is usually done on post-stack data. For a given subsurface reflection point, seismic data are acquired for various incidence angles, typically 40 angles. These 40 seismic signals are stacked together in order to reduce noise. The term pre-stack refers to seismic data prior to this step. For hydrocarbon-related 4-dimensional seismic studies, travel time shift estimations have been used. This paper compared pre-stack and post-stack estimation of average velocity changes based on measured 4-dimensional travel time shifts. It is more practical to compare estimated velocity changes than the actual travel time changes, since the time shifts vary with offset for pre-stack time-lapse seismic analysis. It was concluded that the pre-stack method gives smaller velocity changes when estimated between two key horizons. Therefore, pre-stack travel time analysis in addition to conventional post-stack analysis is recommended. 6 refs., 12 figs
The Hubble constant estimation using 18 gravitational lensing time delays
Jaelani, Anton T.; Premadi, Premana W.
2014-03-01
Gravitational lens time delay method has been used to estimate the rate of cosmological expansion, called the Hubble constant, H0, independently of the standard candle method. This gravitational lensing method requires a good knowledge of the lens mass distribution, reconstructed using the lens image properties. The observed positions of the images, and the redshifts of the lens and the images serve as strong constraints to the lens equations, which are then solved as a set of simultaneous linear equations. Here we made use of a non-parametric technique to reconstruct the lens mass distribution, which is manifested in a linear equations solver named PixeLens. Input for the calculation is chosen based on prior known parameters obtained from analyzed result of the lens case observations, including time-delay, position angles of the images and the lens, and their redshifts. In this project, 18 fairly well studied lens cases are further grouped according to a number of common properties to examine how each property affects the character of the data, and therefore affects the calculation of H0. The considered lens case properties are lens morphology, number of image, completeness of time delays, and symmetry of lens mass distribution. Analysis of simulation shows that paucity of constraints on mass distribution of a lens yields wide range value of H0, which reflects the uniqueness of each lens system. Nonetheless, gravitational lens method still yields H0 within an acceptable range of value when compared to those determined by many other methods. Grouping the cases in the above manner allowed us to assess the robustness of PixeLens and thereby use it selectively. In addition, we use glafic, a parametric mass reconstruction solver, to refine the mass distribution of one lens case, as a comparison.
Changes in Time-Related Academic Behaviour Are Associated with Contextual Motivational Shifts
Strunk, Kamden K.; Lane, Forrest C.; Mwavita, Mwarumba
2018-01-01
Research in the field of time-related academic behaviour (i.e., procrastination and timely engagement) has traditionally been focused on more stable factors, such as personality. Recent research suggests there may be a motivational component to these behaviours. The present study examines whether time-related academic behaviour is stable across…
A soft-computing methodology for noninvasive time-spatial temperature estimation.
Teixeira, César A; Ruano, Maria Graça; Ruano, António E; Pereira, Wagner C A
2008-02-01
The safe and effective application of thermal therapies is restricted due to lack of reliable noninvasive temperature estimators. In this paper, the temporal echo-shifts of backscattered ultrasound signals, collected from a gel-based phantom, were tracked and assigned with the past temperature values as radial basis functions neural networks input information. The phantom was heated using a piston-like therapeutic ultrasound transducer. The neural models were assigned to estimate the temperature at different intensities and points arranged across the therapeutic transducer radial line (60 mm apart from the transducer face). Model inputs, as well as the number of neurons were selected using the multiobjective genetic algorithm (MOGA). The best attained models present, in average, a maximum absolute error less than 0.5 degrees C, which is pointed as the borderline between a reliable and an unreliable estimator in hyperthermia/diathermia. In order to test the spatial generalization capacity, the best models were tested using spatial points not yet assessed, and some of them presented a maximum absolute error inferior to 0.5 degrees C, being "elected" as the best models. It should be also stressed that these best models present implementational low-complexity, as desired for real-time applications.
Centofanti, Stephanie A; Hilditch, Cassie J; Dorrian, Jillian; Banks, Siobhan
2016-01-01
Short naps on night shift are recommended in some industries. There is a paucity of evidence to verify the sustained recovery benefits of short naps in the last few hours of the night shift. Therefore, the current study aimed to investigate the sustained recovery benefits of 30 and 10-min nap opportunities during a simulated night shift. Thirty-one healthy participants (18F, 21-35 y) completed a 3-day, between-groups laboratory study with one baseline night (22:00-07:00 h time in bed), followed by one night awake (time awake from 07:00 h on day two through 10:00 h day three) with random allocation to: a 10-min nap opportunity ending at 04:00 h, a 30-min nap opportunity ending at 04:00 h or no nap (control). A neurobehavioral test bout was administered approximately every 2 h during wake periods. There were no significant differences between nap conditions for post-nap psychomotor vigilance performance after controlling for pre-nap scores (p > 0.05). The 30-min nap significantly improved subjective sleepiness compared to the 10-min nap and no-nap control (p effect.
Baxter v. Montana, libertarianism, and end-of-life: the ripe time for a paradigm shift.
Ruble, James H
2010-09-01
Baxter v. Montana (2009 WL 5155363 [Mont. 2009]) is a recent decision from the Montana Supreme Court that provides new legal insight into the societal issue of aid in dying. This case involves interests of persons with terminal illness, medical practitioners, law enforcement, legislative and judicial bodies, as well as the citizens of Montana. A summary judgment ruling at the Montana district court level was based almost entirely on a constitutional fundamental rights analysis. In contrast, the Montana Supreme Court affirming decision was based almost entirely on a statutory rights analysis. Both rulings from the Montana courts support the position that licensed prescribers in Montana who provide aid in dying assistance to terminally ill patients have some immunity from criminal prosecution. Each side in the case argued what they believed to be the intents and purposes of the people of Montana. Baxter v. Montana illustrates different methods to determine the will of the people concerning aid in dying and public policy. This case very subtly suggests a paradigm shift may be occurring in aid in dying policy.
PUS in turbulent times II - A shifting vocabulary that brokers inter-disciplinary knowledge.
Suerdem, Ahmet; Bauer, Martin W; Howard, Susan; Ruby, Luke
2013-01-01
To reflect further on 20 years of the journal, we present a lexicographic and bibliometric study of all papers published in Public Understanding of Science (PUS). Lexicographical analysis of the vocabulary of 465 abstracts shows five classes of associated concepts in two periods, 1992-2001 and 2002-2010. The concern for public attitudes and mass media coverage remains on the card; while language has shifted from 'public understanding' to 'public engagement' and environmental concerns have waned then waxed. The bibliometric analysis traces the position of PUS in the inter-citation network of 165 related journals (ISI Web of Science citation database), grouped into 10 disciplines for the purpose of this analysis. Indicators derived from network logic show that the established position of PUS has been stable since 1997. PUS serves a varied brokerage role as gatekeeper into and liaison maker between disciplines. Its inter-citation network position allows PUS to perform inter-disciplinary boundary spanning work that offers a safe space for experimentation with ideas.
Chen, Ruizhu; Zhao, Junwei
2018-02-01
Time–distance helioseismology measures acoustic travel times to infer the structure and flow field of the solar interior; however, both the mean travel times and the travel-time shifts suffer systematic center-to-limb variations, which complicate the interpretation and inversions of the time–distance measurements. In particular, the center-to-limb variation in travel-time shifts (CtoL effect) has a significant impact on the inference of the Sun’s meridional circulation, and needs to be removed from the helioseismic measurements, although the observational properties and the physical cause of the CtoL effect have yet to be investigated. In this study, we measure the CtoL effect in the frequency domain using Doppler-velocity data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager, and study its properties as a function of disk-centric distance, travel distance, and frequency of acoustic waves. It is found that the CtoL effect has a significant frequency dependence—it reverses sign at a frequency around 5.4 mHz and reaches maximum at around 4.0 mHz before the sign reversal. The tendency of frequency dependence varies with disk-centric distance in a way that both the sign-reversal frequency and the maximum-value frequency decrease closer to the limb. The variation tendency does not change with travel distance, but the variation magnitude is approximately proportional to travel distance. For comparison, the flow-induced travel-time shifts show little frequency dependence. These observational properties provide more clues on the nature of the CtoL effect, and also possibly lead to new ways of effect-removal for a more robust determination of the deep meridional flow.
Sex differences in cerebral venous thrombosis: A systematic analysis of a shift over time
Zuurbier, Susanna M.; Middeldorp, Saskia; Stam, Jan; Coutinho, Jonathan M.
2016-01-01
In contemporary studies, cerebral venous thrombosis is three times more common in adult women than in men. To study the change in sex ratio over time in cerebral venous thrombosis. We systematically reviewed the literature. Any type of study with at least 40 patients with cerebral venous thrombosis
Non-occupational physical activity levels of shift workers compared with non-shift workers
Loef, Bette; Hulsegge, Gerben; Wendel-Vos, G C Wanda; Verschuren, W M Monique; Bakker, Marije F; van der Beek, Allard J; Proper, Karin I
2017-01-01
Objectives Lack of physical activity (PA) has been hypothesised as an underlying mechanism in the adverse health effects of shift work. Therefore, our aim was to compare non-occupational PA levels between shift workers and non-shift workers. Furthermore, exposure–response relationships for frequency of night shifts and years of shift work regarding non-occupational PA levels were studied. Methods Data of 5980 non-shift workers and 532 shift workers from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (EPIC-NL) were used in these cross-sectional analyses. Time spent (hours/week) in different PA types (walking/cycling/exercise/chores) and intensities (moderate/vigorous) were calculated based on self-reported PA. Furthermore, sports were operationalised as: playing sports (no/yes), individual versus non-individual sports, and non-vigorous-intensity versus vigorous-intensity sports. PA levels were compared between shift workers and non-shift workers using Generalized Estimating Equations and logistic regression. Results Shift workers reported spending more time walking than non-shift workers (B=2.3 (95% CI 1.2 to 3.4)), but shift work was not associated with other PA types and any of the sports activities. Shift workers who worked 1–4 night shifts/month (B=2.4 (95% CI 0.6 to 4.3)) and ≥5 night shifts/month (B=3.7 (95% CI 1.8 to 5.6)) spent more time walking than non-shift workers. No exposure–response relationships were found between years of shift work and PA levels. Conclusions Shift workers spent more time walking than non-shift workers, but we observed no differences in other non-occupational PA levels. To better understand if and how PA plays a role in the negative health consequences of shift work, our findings need to be confirmed in future studies. PMID:27872151
Stability over Time of Different Methods of Estimating School Performance
Dumay, Xavier; Coe, Rob; Anumendem, Dickson Nkafu
2014-01-01
This paper aims to investigate how stability varies with the approach used in estimating school performance in a large sample of English primary schools. The results show that (a) raw performance is considerably more stable than adjusted performance, which in turn is slightly more stable than growth model estimates; (b) schools' performance…
Detection probabilities for time-domain velocity estimation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Jørgen Arendt
1991-01-01
programs, it is demonstrated that the probability of correct estimation depends on the signal-to-noise ratio, transducer bandwidth, number of A-lines and number of samples used in the correlation estimate. The influence of applying a stationary echo-canceler is explained. The echo canceling can be modeled...
A Paradigm Shift From Brick and Mortar: Full-Time Nursing Faculty Off Campus.
Beck, Marlene; Bradley, Holly B; Cook, Linda L; Leasca, Joslin B; Lampley, Tammy; Gatti-Petito, JoAnne
The organizational structure for the Master of Science in Nursing's online program at Sacred Heart University offers a remarkably different innovative faculty model. Full-time, doctorally prepared faculty reside in several different states and teach online but are fully integrated and immersed in all aspects of the college of nursing. This untraditional model, which has proven to be successful over time using best practices for online education, is replicable and offers an innovative option for online learning.
Time Use and Physical Activity: A Shift Away from Movement across the Globe
Ng, Shu Wen; Popkin, Barry
2012-01-01
Technology linked with reduced physical activity (PA) in occupational work, home/domestic work, and travel and increased sedentary activities, especially television viewing, dominates the globe. Using detailed historical data on time allocation, occupational distributions, energy expenditures data by activity, and time-varying measures of metabolic equivalents of task (MET) for activities when available, we measure historical and current MET by four major PA domains (occupation, home production, travel, and active leisure) and sedentary time among adults (> 18 years). Trends by domain for the United States (1965–2009), the United Kingdom (1961–2005), Brazil (2002–2007), China (1991–2009), and India (2000–2005) are presented. We also project changes in energy expenditure by domain and sedentary time (excluding sleep and personal care) to 2020 and 2030 for each of these countries. The use of previously unexplored detailed time allocation and energy expenditures and other datasets represents a useful addition to our ability to document activity and inactivity globally. Given the potential impact on weight gain and other cardiometabolic health risks, the differential declines in MET of activity and increases in sedentary time across the globe represents a major threat to global health. PMID:22694051
Estimation Accuracy on Execution Time of Run-Time Tasks in a Heterogeneous Distributed Environment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Qi Liu
2016-08-01
Full Text Available Distributed Computing has achieved tremendous development since cloud computing was proposed in 2006, and played a vital role promoting rapid growth of data collecting and analysis models, e.g., Internet of things, Cyber-Physical Systems, Big Data Analytics, etc. Hadoop has become a data convergence platform for sensor networks. As one of the core components, MapReduce facilitates allocating, processing and mining of collected large-scale data, where speculative execution strategies help solve straggler problems. However, there is still no efficient solution for accurate estimation on execution time of run-time tasks, which can affect task allocation and distribution in MapReduce. In this paper, task execution data have been collected and employed for the estimation. A two-phase regression (TPR method is proposed to predict the finishing time of each task accurately. Detailed data of each task have drawn interests with detailed analysis report being made. According to the results, the prediction accuracy of concurrent tasks’ execution time can be improved, in particular for some regular jobs.
Only through perturbation can relaxation times be estimated
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ditlevsen, Susanne; Lansky, Petr
2012-01-01
Estimation of model parameters is as important as model building, but is often neglected in model studies. Here we show that despite the existence of well known results on parameter estimation in a simple homogenous Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, in most practical situations the methods suffer greatly...... on computer experiments based on applications in neuroscience and pharmacokinetics, which show a striking improvement of the quality of estimation. The results are important for judicious designs of experiments to obtain maximal information from each data point, especially when samples are expensive...
Phylogenetic rate shifts in feeding time during the evolution of Homo.
Organ, Chris; Nunn, Charles L; Machanda, Zarin; Wrangham, Richard W
2011-08-30
Unique among animals, humans eat a diet rich in cooked and nonthermally processed food. The ancestors of modern humans who invented food processing (including cooking) gained critical advantages in survival and fitness through increased caloric intake. However, the time and manner in which food processing became biologically significant are uncertain. Here, we assess the inferred evolutionary consequences of food processing in the human lineage by applying a Bayesian phylogenetic outlier test to a comparative dataset of feeding time in humans and nonhuman primates. We find that modern humans spend an order of magnitude less time feeding than predicted by phylogeny and body mass (4.7% vs. predicted 48% of daily activity). This result suggests that a substantial evolutionary rate change in feeding time occurred along the human branch after the human-chimpanzee split. Along this same branch, Homo erectus shows a marked reduction in molar size that is followed by a gradual, although erratic, decline in H. sapiens. We show that reduction in molar size in early Homo (H. habilis and H. rudolfensis) is explicable by phylogeny and body size alone. By contrast, the change in molar size to H. erectus, H. neanderthalensis, and H. sapiens cannot be explained by the rate of craniodental and body size evolution. Together, our results indicate that the behaviorally driven adaptations of food processing (reduced feeding time and molar size) originated after the evolution of Homo but before or concurrent with the evolution of H. erectus, which was around 1.9 Mya.
Time Domain Frequency Stability Estimation Based On FFT Measurements
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Chang, P
2004-01-01
.... In this paper, the biases of the Fast Fourier transform (FFT) spectral estimate with Hanning window are checked and the resulting unbiased spectral density are used to calculate the Allan variance...
Chelton, Dudley B.; Schlax, Michael G.
1991-01-01
The sampling error of an arbitrary linear estimate of a time-averaged quantity constructed from a time series of irregularly spaced observations at a fixed located is quantified through a formalism. The method is applied to satellite observations of chlorophyll from the coastal zone color scanner. The two specific linear estimates under consideration are the composite average formed from the simple average of all observations within the averaging period and the optimal estimate formed by minimizing the mean squared error of the temporal average based on all the observations in the time series. The resulting suboptimal estimates are shown to be more accurate than composite averages. Suboptimal estimates are also found to be nearly as accurate as optimal estimates using the correct signal and measurement error variances and correlation functions for realistic ranges of these parameters, which makes it a viable practical alternative to the composite average method generally employed at present.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tabatabaeipour, Seyed Mojtaba; Bak, Thomas
2012-01-01
In this paper we consider the problem of fault estimation and accommodation for discrete time piecewise linear systems. A robust fault estimator is designed to estimate the fault such that the estimation error converges to zero and H∞ performance of the fault estimation is minimized. Then, the es...
Deepwater Horizon - Estimating surface oil volume distribution in real time
Lehr, B.; Simecek-Beatty, D.; Leifer, I.
2011-12-01
Spill responders to the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill required both the relative spatial distribution and total oil volume of the surface oil. The former was needed on a daily basis to plan and direct local surface recovery and treatment operations. The latter was needed less frequently to provide information for strategic response planning. Unfortunately, the standard spill observation methods were inadequate for an oil spill this size, and new, experimental, methods, were not ready to meet the operational demands of near real-time results. Traditional surface oil estimation tools for large spills include satellite-based sensors to define the spatial extent (but not thickness) of the oil, complemented with trained observers in small aircraft, sometimes supplemented by active or passive remote sensing equipment, to determine surface percent coverage of the 'thick' part of the slick, where the vast majority of the surface oil exists. These tools were also applied to DWH in the early days of the spill but the shear size of the spill prevented synoptic information of the surface slick through the use small aircraft. Also, satellite images of the spill, while large in number, varied considerably in image quality, requiring skilled interpretation of them to identify oil and eliminate false positives. Qualified staff to perform this task were soon in short supply. However, large spills are often events that overcome organizational inertia to the use of new technology. Two prime examples in DWH were the application of hyper-spectral scans from a high-altitude aircraft and more traditional fixed-wing aircraft using multi-spectral scans processed by use of a neural network to determine, respectively, absolute or relative oil thickness. But, with new technology, come new challenges. The hyper-spectral instrument required special viewing conditions that were not present on a daily basis and analysis infrastructure to process the data that was not available at the command
Charting shifts and moving forward in abnormal times: An interview with Nancy Fraser
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Julia Sichieri Moura
2016-09-01
Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1677-2954.2016v15n1p1 In this interview Nancy Fraser elucidates important conceptual topics of her theory, she also shares her analysis of the global financial crisis and how it has changed the setting for theorists of justice. Her account reminds us of critical theory’s important role in helping us think - and act – differently in difficult times.
Oh-Descher, Hanna; Beck, Jeffrey M; Ferrari, Silvia; Sommer, Marc A; Egner, Tobias
2017-11-15
Real-life decision-making often involves combining multiple probabilistic sources of information under finite time and cognitive resources. To mitigate these pressures, people "satisfice", foregoing a full evaluation of all available evidence to focus on a subset of cues that allow for fast and "good-enough" decisions. Although this form of decision-making likely mediates many of our everyday choices, very little is known about the way in which the neural encoding of cue information changes when we satisfice under time pressure. Here, we combined human functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) with a probabilistic classification task to characterize neural substrates of multi-cue decision-making under low (1500 ms) and high (500 ms) time pressure. Using variational Bayesian inference, we analyzed participants' choices to track and quantify cue usage under each experimental condition, which was then applied to model the fMRI data. Under low time pressure, participants performed near-optimally, appropriately integrating all available cues to guide choices. Both cortical (prefrontal and parietal cortex) and subcortical (hippocampal and striatal) regions encoded individual cue weights, and activity linearly tracked trial-by-trial variations in the amount of evidence and decision uncertainty. Under increased time pressure, participants adaptively shifted to using a satisficing strategy by discounting the least informative cue in their decision process. This strategic change in decision-making was associated with an increased involvement of the dopaminergic midbrain, striatum, thalamus, and cerebellum in representing and integrating cue values. We conclude that satisficing the probabilistic inference process under time pressure leads to a cortical-to-subcortical shift in the neural drivers of decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Bacterial diversity and community structure in lettuce soil are shifted by cultivation time
Liu, Yiqian; Chang, Qing; Guo, Xu; Yi, Xinxin
2017-08-01
Compared with cereal production, vegetable production usually requires a greater degree of management and larger input of nutrients and irrigation, but these systems are not sustainable in the long term. This study aimed to what extent lettuce determine the bacterial community composition in the soil, during lettuce cultivation, pesticides and fertilizers were not apply to soil. Soil samples were collected from depths of 0-20cm and 20-40cm. A highthroughput sequencing approach was employed to investigate bacterial communities in lettuce-cultivated soil samples in a time-dependent manner. The dominant bacteria in the lettuce soil samples were mainly Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Chloroflexi, Nitrospirae, Firmicutes, Acidobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Verrucomicrobia, Planctomycetes, Gemmatimo nadetes, Cyanobacteria. Proteobacteria was the most abundant phylum in the 6 soil samples. The relative abundance of Acidobacteria, Firmicutes, Bacteroidetes, Verrucomicrobia and Cyanobacteria decreased through time of lettuce cultivation, but the relative abundance of Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Gemmatimonadetes, Chloroflexi, Planctomycetes and Nitrospirae increased over time. In the 0-20cm depth group and the 20-40cm depth soil, a similar pattern was observed that the percentage number of only shared OTUs between the early and late stage was lower than that between the early and middle stage soil, the result showed that lettuce growth can affect structure of soil bacterial communities.
On the validity of time-dependent AUC estimators.
Schmid, Matthias; Kestler, Hans A; Potapov, Sergej
2015-01-01
Recent developments in molecular biology have led to the massive discovery of new marker candidates for the prediction of patient survival. To evaluate the predictive value of these markers, statistical tools for measuring the performance of survival models are needed. We consider estimators of discrimination measures, which are a popular approach to evaluate survival predictions in biomarker studies. Estimators of discrimination measures are usually based on regularity assumptions such as the proportional hazards assumption. Based on two sets of molecular data and a simulation study, we show that violations of the regularity assumptions may lead to over-optimistic estimates of prediction accuracy and may therefore result in biased conclusions regarding the clinical utility of new biomarkers. In particular, we demonstrate that biased medical decision making is possible even if statistical checks indicate that all regularity assumptions are satisfied. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Nguyen, Ngoc-Lan; Kim, Yeon-Ju; Hoang, Van-An; Subramaniyam, Sathiyamoorthy; Kang, Jong-Pyo; Kang, Chang Ho; Yang, Deok-Chun
2016-01-01
Traditional molecular methods have been used to examine bacterial communities in ginseng-cultivated soil samples in a time-dependent manner. Despite these efforts, our understanding of the bacterial community is still inadequate. Therefore, in this study, a high-throughput sequencing approach was employed to investigate bacterial diversity in various ginseng field soil samples over cultivation times of 2, 4, and 6 years in the first and second rounds of cultivation. We used non-cultivated soil samples to perform a comparative study. Moreover, this study assessed changes in the bacterial community associated with soil depth and the health state of the ginseng. Bacterial richness decreased through years of cultivation. This study detected differences in relative abundance of bacterial populations between the first and second rounds of cultivation, years of cultivation, and health states of ginseng. These bacterial populations were mainly distributed in the classes Acidobacteria, Alphaproteobacteria, Deltaproteobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria, and Sphingobacteria. In addition, we found that pH, available phosphorus, and exchangeable Ca+ seemed to have high correlations with bacterial class in ginseng cultivated soil.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Obara, Shin' ya [Power Engineering Lab., Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Kitami Institute of Technology, 165 Kouen-cho, Kitami, Hokkaido 0908507 (Japan)
2010-01-15
A microgrid, with little environmental impact, is developed by introducing a combined SOFC (solid oxide fuel cell) and PEFC (proton exchange membrane fuel cell) system. Although the SOFC requires a higher operation temperature compared to the PEFC, the power generation efficiency of the SOFC is higher. However, if high temperature exhaust heat may be used effectively, a system with higher total power generation efficiency can be built. Therefore, this paper investigates the operation of a SOFC-PEFC combined system, with time shift operation of reformed gas, into a microgrid with 30 houses in Sapporo, Japan. The SOFC is designed to correspond to base load operation, and the exhaust heat of the SOFC is used for production of reformed gas. This reformed gas is used for the production of electricity for the PEFC, corresponding to fluctuation load of the next day. Accordingly, the reformed gas is used with a time shift operation. In this paper, the relation between operation method, power generation efficiency, and amount of heat storage of the SOFC-PEFC combined system to the difference in power load pattern was investigated. The average power generation efficiency of the system can be maintained at nearly 48% on a representative day in February (winter season) and August (summer season). (author)
Rabitsch, W; Milasowszky, N; Nehring, S; Wiesner, C; Wolter, C; Essl, F
2013-01-01
This study examines the invasion history of alien fish species based on exhaustive national data sets on fish invasions of two contiguous central European countries (Germany and Austria). Fifteen alien fish species are currently established in both countries, constituting 14 and 17% of the total freshwater fish fauna of Germany and Austria, respectively. In both countries, six alien species are present, but not established. The status of five alien species in Germany and three species in Austria remains unknown. Accumulation rates of alien fish species have increased in recent decades with >50% of them reported after 1971. North America and Asia were the primary sources of alien fish species in Germany and Austria up to the 1980s, whereas European species of Ponto-Caspian origin dominate now. Fisheries (including aquaculture) and the animal trade were responsible for most earlier introductions, whereas waterways were the main pathway for recent invaders. The extent of the spatial distribution of alien species was positively correlated with residence time, i.e. the time elapsed since the first national record. Different thermal preferences of early invaders (mostly coldwater species) and new invaders (typically warmwater adapted) may benefit the latter in the face of climate change. It is concluded that new challenges for alien fish management arise and that ecosystem-based approaches as endorsed by the E.U. Water Framework Directive (maintaining or restoring good ecological status of rivers and streams) should become the centrepiece of river management in Europe. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2012 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yongning Liu
2015-07-01
Full Text Available A time difference method to conveniently measure the phase shift between output wavelength and intensity of distributed feedback laser diodes (DFB-LDs was proposed. This approach takes advantage of asymmetric absorption positions at the same wavelength during wavelength increase and decrease tuning processes in the intensity-time curve by current modulation. For its practical implementation, a measurement example of phase shift was demonstrated by measuring a time difference between the first time and the second time attendances of the same gas absorption line in the intensity-time curve during one sine or triangle modulation circle. The phase shifts at modulation frequencies ranging from 50 Hz to 50 kHz were measured with a resolution of 0.001π. As the modulation frequency increased the shift value increased with a slowed growth rate.
Real-time Loudspeaker Distance Estimation with Stereo Audio
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Jesper Kjær; Gaubitch, Nikolay; Heusdens, Richard
2015-01-01
Knowledge on how a number of loudspeakers are positioned relative to a listening position can be used to enhance the listening experience. Usually, these loudspeaker positions are estimated using calibration signals, either audible or psycho-acoustically hidden inside the desired audio signal...
Mateos, I; Ranilla, M J; Saro, C; Carro, M D
2017-11-01
Rusitec fermenters are in vitro systems widely used to study ruminal fermentation, but little is known about the microbial populations establishing in them. This study was designed to assess the time evolution of microbial populations in fermenters fed medium- (MC; 50% alfalfa hay : concentrate) and high-concentrate diets (HC; 15 : 85 barley straw : concentrate). Samples from solid (SOL) and liquid (LIQ) content of fermenters were taken immediately before feeding on days 3, 8 and 14 of incubation for quantitative polymerase chain reaction and automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis analyses. In SOL, total bacterial DNA concentration and relative abundance of Ruminococcus flavefaciens remained unchanged over the incubation period, but protozoal DNA concentration and abundance of Fibrobacter succinogenes, Ruminococcus albus and fungi decreased and abundance of methanogenic archaea increased. In LIQ, total bacterial DNA concentration increased with time, whereas concentration of protozoal DNA and abundance of methanogens and fungi decreased. Diet×time interactions were observed for bacterial and protozoal DNA and relative abundance of F. succinogenes and R. albus in SOL, as well as for protozoal DNA in LIQ. Bacterial diversity in SOL increased with time, but no changes were observed in LIQ. The incubated diet influenced all microbial populations, with the exception of total bacteria and fungi abundance in LIQ. Bacterial diversity was higher in MC-fed than in HC-fed fermenters in SOL, but no differences were detected in LIQ. Values of pH, daily production of volatile fatty acids and CH4 and isobutyrate proportions remained stable over the incubation period, but other fermentation parameters varied with time. The relationships among microbial populations and fermentation parameters were in well agreement with those previously reported in in vivo studies. Using 15N as a microbial marker or quantifying total microbial DNA for estimating microbial protein synthesis
Time shift in slope failure prediction between unimodal and bimodal modeling approaches
Ciervo, Fabio; Casini, Francesca; Nicolina Papa, Maria; Medina, Vicente
2016-04-01
Together with the need to use more appropriate mathematical expressions for describing hydro-mechanical soil processes, a challenge issue relates to the need of considering the effects induced by terrain heterogeneities on the physical mechanisms, taking into account the implications of the heterogeneities in affecting time-dependent hydro-mechanical variables, would improve the prediction capacities of models, such as the ones used in early warning systems. The presence of the heterogeneities in partially-saturated slopes results in irregular propagation of the moisture and suction front. To mathematically represent the "dual-implication" generally induced by the heterogeneities in describing the hydraulic terrain behavior, several bimodal hydraulic models have been presented in literature and replaced the conventional sigmoidal/unimodal functions; this presupposes that the scale of the macrostructure is comparable with the local scale (Darcy scale), thus the Richards' model can be assumed adequate to mathematically reproduce the processes. The purpose of this work is to focus on the differences in simulating flow infiltration processes and slope stability conditions originated from preliminary choices of hydraulic models and contextually between different approaches to evaluate the factor of safety (FoS). In particular, the results of two approaches are compared. The first one includes the conventional expression of the FoS under saturated conditions and the widespread used hydraulic model of van Genuchten-Mualem. The second approach includes a generalized FoS equation for infinite-slope model under variably saturated soil conditions (Lu and Godt, 2008) and the bimodal Romano et al.'s (2011) functions to describe the hydraulic response. The extension of the above mentioned approach to the bimodal context is based on an analytical method to assess the effects of the hydraulic properties on soil shear developed integrating a bimodal lognormal hydraulic function
Time- and depth-wise trophic niche shifts in Antarctic benthos.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Edoardo Calizza
Full Text Available Climate change is expected to affect resource-consumer interactions underlying stability in polar food webs. Polar benthic organisms have adapted to the marked seasonality characterising their habitats by concentrating foraging and reproductive activity in summer months, when inputs from sympagic and pelagic producers increase. While this enables the persistence of biodiverse food webs, the mechanisms underlying changes in resource use and nutrient transfer are poorly understood. Thus, our understanding of how temporal and spatial variations in the supply of resources may affect food web structure and functioning is limited. By means of C and N isotopic analyses of two key Antarctic benthic consumers (Adamussium colbecki, Bivalvia, and Sterechinus neumayeri, Echinoidea and Bayesian mixing models, we describe changes in trophic niche and nutrient transfer across trophic levels associated with the long- and short-term diet and body size of specimens sampled in midsummer in both shallow and deep waters. Samplings occurred soon after the sea-ice broke up at Tethys Bay, an area characterised by extreme seasonality in sea-ice coverage and productivity in the Ross Sea. In the long term, the trophic niche was broader and variation between specimens was greater, with intermediate-size specimens generally consuming a higher number of resources than small and large specimens. The coupling of energy channels in the food web was consequently more direct than in the short term. Sediment and benthic algae were more frequently consumed in the long term, before the sea-ice broke up, while consumers specialised on sympagic algae and plankton in the short term. Regardless of the time scale, sympagic algae were more frequently consumed in shallow waters, while plankton was more frequently consumed in deep waters. Our results suggest a strong temporal relationship between resource availability and the trophic niche of benthic consumers in Antarctica. Potential
Time- and depth-wise trophic niche shifts in Antarctic benthos.
Calizza, Edoardo; Careddu, Giulio; Sporta Caputi, Simona; Rossi, Loreto; Costantini, Maria Letizia
2018-01-01
Climate change is expected to affect resource-consumer interactions underlying stability in polar food webs. Polar benthic organisms have adapted to the marked seasonality characterising their habitats by concentrating foraging and reproductive activity in summer months, when inputs from sympagic and pelagic producers increase. While this enables the persistence of biodiverse food webs, the mechanisms underlying changes in resource use and nutrient transfer are poorly understood. Thus, our understanding of how temporal and spatial variations in the supply of resources may affect food web structure and functioning is limited. By means of C and N isotopic analyses of two key Antarctic benthic consumers (Adamussium colbecki, Bivalvia, and Sterechinus neumayeri, Echinoidea) and Bayesian mixing models, we describe changes in trophic niche and nutrient transfer across trophic levels associated with the long- and short-term diet and body size of specimens sampled in midsummer in both shallow and deep waters. Samplings occurred soon after the sea-ice broke up at Tethys Bay, an area characterised by extreme seasonality in sea-ice coverage and productivity in the Ross Sea. In the long term, the trophic niche was broader and variation between specimens was greater, with intermediate-size specimens generally consuming a higher number of resources than small and large specimens. The coupling of energy channels in the food web was consequently more direct than in the short term. Sediment and benthic algae were more frequently consumed in the long term, before the sea-ice broke up, while consumers specialised on sympagic algae and plankton in the short term. Regardless of the time scale, sympagic algae were more frequently consumed in shallow waters, while plankton was more frequently consumed in deep waters. Our results suggest a strong temporal relationship between resource availability and the trophic niche of benthic consumers in Antarctica. Potential climate-driven changes
On the fast estimation of transit times application to BWR simulated data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Antonopoulos-Domis, M.; Marseguerra, M.; Padovani, E.
1996-01-01
Real time estimators of transit times are proposed. BWR noise is simulated including a global component due to rod vibration. The time obtained form the simulation is used to investigate the robustness and noise immunity of the estimators. It is found that, in presence of a coincident (global) signal, the cross-correlation function is the worst estimator. (authors)
Is it time for a paradigm shift in understanding embryo selection?
Gleicher, Norbert; Kushnir, Vitaly A; Barad, David H
2015-01-11
Embryo selection has been an integral feature of in vitro fertilization (IVF) almost since its inception. Since the advent of extended blastocyst stage embryo culture, and especially with increasing popularity of elective single embryo transfer (eSET), the concept of embryo selection has increasingly become a mainstay of routine IVF. We here, however, argue that embryo selection via blastocyst stage embryo transfer (BSET), as currently practiced, at best improves IVF outcomes only for a small minority of patients undergoing IVF cycles. For a large majority BSET is either ineffective or, indeed, may actually be harmful by decreasing IVF pregnancy chances. Overall, only a small minority of patients, thus, benefit from prolonged embryo culture, while BSET, as a tool to enhance IVF outcomes, is increasingly utilized as routine care in IVF for all patients. Since newer methods of embryo selection, like preimplantation genetic screening (PGS) and closed system embryo incubation with time-lapse photography are practically dependent on BSET, these concepts of embryo selection, currently increasingly adopted in mainstream IVF, require reconsideration. They, automatically, transfer the downsides of BSET, including decreases in IVF pregnancy chances in some patients, to these new procedures, and in addition raise serious questions about cost-effectiveness.
The Specific Features of the Contemporary Russian Foreign Energy Policy Shift in Modern Times
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Egor S. Leonov
2015-01-01
Full Text Available In recent years there has been brewing up a necessity in Russia to change direction of its external energy policy radically as a result of unconstructive and hugely politically charged approach of the EU - main and traditional partner of Russia - to settlement of fundamental issues in bilateral cooperation. First of all this refers to failed efforts to create regional energy security system, based on respective institutions and legal framework, by reason of unwillingness of the EU to respect the Russian standpoint as an exporter of energy resources. As a result, there is a legal vacuum today in energy cooperation between Russia and the EU, which they failed to fill. The current political crisis in Europe, which is caused by accession of the Republic of Crimea to the Russian Federation and events in Ukraine, has aggravated long-standing problems of energy partnership EU-Russia. At the same time active EU policy on diversification of energy sources and supply routes discredits peculiar role of Russia as EU key energy supplier. These factors have triggered a significant revision of Russian interests in favor of eastern direction. A new promising contract with China on 21 May 2014 and memorandum with Turkey on 1 December 2014 are the milestones of the present Russian eastern policy. Both contracts can disrupt power balance on the global energy market. The article deals with background and causes for the present Russian eastern activity.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Albers, D.J.; Hripcsak, George
2012-01-01
Highlights: ► Time-delayed mutual information for irregularly sampled time-series. ► Estimation bias for the time-delayed mutual information calculation. ► Fast, simple, PDF estimator independent, time-delayed mutual information bias estimate. ► Quantification of data-set-size limits of the time-delayed mutual calculation. - Abstract: A method to estimate the time-dependent correlation via an empirical bias estimate of the time-delayed mutual information for a time-series is proposed. In particular, the bias of the time-delayed mutual information is shown to often be equivalent to the mutual information between two distributions of points from the same system separated by infinite time. Thus intuitively, estimation of the bias is reduced to estimation of the mutual information between distributions of data points separated by large time intervals. The proposed bias estimation techniques are shown to work for Lorenz equations data and glucose time series data of three patients from the Columbia University Medical Center database.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Garde, Anne Helene; Hansen, Åse Marie; Hansen, Johnni
2009-01-01
Sleep problems are common effects of shift work. The aim of the present study was to evaluate how different types of shift affect sleep and sleepiness, and to relate sleepiness to urinary 6-sulfatoxymelatonin....
Estimation of time-dependent input from neuronal membrane potential
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Kobayashi, R.; Shinomoto, S.; Lánský, Petr
2011-01-01
Roč. 23, č. 12 (2011), s. 3070-3093 ISSN 0899-7667 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LC554; GA ČR(CZ) GAP103/11/0282 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50110509 Keywords : neuronal coding * statistical estimation * Bayes method Subject RIV: JD - Computer Applications, Robotics Impact factor: 1.884, year: 2011
An Analysis of Variance Approach for the Estimation of Response Time Distributions in Tests
Attali, Yigal
2010-01-01
Generalizability theory and analysis of variance methods are employed, together with the concept of objective time pressure, to estimate response time distributions and the degree of time pressure in timed tests. By estimating response time variance components due to person, item, and their interaction, and fixed effects due to item types and…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yong-Sheng Zhang
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The walking, waiting, transfer, and delayed in-vehicle travel times mainly contribute to route’s travel time reliability in the metro system. The automatic fare collection (AFC system provides huge amounts of smart card records which can be used to estimate all these times distributions. A new estimation model based on Bayesian inference formulation is proposed in this paper by integrating the probability measurement of the OD pair with only one effective route, in which all kinds of times follow the truncated normal distributions. Then, Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is designed to estimate all parameters endogenously. Finally, based on AFC data in Guangzhou Metro, the estimations show that all parameters can be estimated endogenously and identifiably. Meanwhile, the truncated property of the travel time is significant and the threshold tested by the surveyed data is reliable. Furthermore, the superiority of the proposed model over the existing model in estimation and forecasting accuracy is also demonstrated.
Estimating time-dependent connectivity in marine systems
Defne, Zafer; Ganju, Neil K.; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo
2016-01-01
Hydrodynamic connectivity describes the sources and destinations of water parcels within a domain over a given time. When combined with biological models, it can be a powerful concept to explain the patterns of constituent dispersal within marine ecosystems. However, providing connectivity metrics for a given domain is a three-dimensional problem: two dimensions in space to define the sources and destinations and a time dimension to evaluate connectivity at varying temporal scales. If the time scale of interest is not predefined, then a general approach is required to describe connectivity over different time scales. For this purpose, we have introduced the concept of a “retention clock” that highlights the change in connectivity through time. Using the example of connectivity between protected areas within Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, we show that a retention clock matrix is an informative tool for multitemporal analysis of connectivity.
Overcoming equifinality: Leveraging long time series for stream metabolism estimation
Appling, Alison; Hall, Robert O.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Arroita, Maite
2018-01-01
The foundational ecosystem processes of gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) cannot be measured directly but can be modeled in aquatic ecosystems from subdaily patterns of oxygen (O2) concentrations. Because rivers and streams constantly exchange O2 with the atmosphere, models must either use empirical estimates of the gas exchange rate coefficient (K600) or solve for all three parameters (GPP, ER, and K600) simultaneously. Empirical measurements of K600 require substantial field work and can still be inaccurate. Three-parameter models have suffered from equifinality, where good fits to O2 data are achieved by many different parameter values, some unrealistic. We developed a new three-parameter, multiday model that ensures similar values for K600 among days with similar physical conditions (e.g., discharge). Our new model overcomes the equifinality problem by (1) flexibly relating K600 to discharge while permitting moderate daily deviations and (2) avoiding the oft-violated assumption that residuals in O2 predictions are uncorrelated. We implemented this hierarchical state-space model and several competitor models in an open-source R package, streamMetabolizer. We then tested the models against both simulated and field data. Our new model reduces error by as much as 70% in daily estimates of K600, GPP, and ER. Further, accuracy benefits of multiday data sets require as few as 3 days of data. This approach facilitates more accurate metabolism estimates for more streams and days, enabling researchers to better quantify carbon fluxes, compare streams by their metabolic regimes, and investigate controls on aquatic activity.
Estimating dust distances to Type Ia supernovae from colour excess time evolution
Bulla, M.; Goobar, A.; Amanullah, R.; Feindt, U.; Ferretti, R.
2018-01-01
We present a new technique to infer dust locations towards reddened Type Ia supernovae and to help discriminate between an interstellar and a circumstellar origin for the observed extinction. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the time evolution of the light-curve shape and especially of the colour excess E(B - V) places strong constraints on the distance between dust and the supernova. We apply our approach to two highly reddened Type Ia supernovae for which dust distance estimates are available in the literature: SN 2006X and SN 2014J. For the former, we obtain a time-variable E(B - V) and from this derive a distance of 27.5^{+9.0}_{-4.9} or 22.1^{+6.0}_{-3.8} pc depending on whether dust properties typical of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) or the Milky Way (MW) are used. For the latter, instead, we obtain a constant E(B - V) consistent with dust at distances larger than ∼50 and 38 pc for LMC- and MW-type dust, respectively. Values thus extracted are in excellent agreement with previous estimates for the two supernovae. Our findings suggest that dust responsible for the extinction towards these supernovae is likely to be located within interstellar clouds. We also discuss how other properties of reddened Type Ia supernovae - such as their peculiar extinction and polarization behaviour and the detection of variable, blue-shifted sodium features in some of these events - might be compatible with dust and gas at interstellar-scale distances.
Castellini, G; Anelli, M M; Punzi, S; Boari, P; Camerino, D; Costa, G
2011-01-01
The study is aimed at assessing, in 200 nurses shift workers, the impact on sleep of two different working areas ("emergency" and "hospitalization") having the same "3 x 8" shift system, and of two different shift schedules at quick rotation ("2 x 12" and "3 x 8") in the same working area ("emergency"). Night and morning shifts prove to interfere to a greater extent with sleep in relation to both "2 x 12" and "3 x 8" shift systems as well as to the two operative areas. Hence the importance to consider in shift work planning, the direction of shift rotation and the length of the duty period according to the type of activity.
Real-time pure shift {sup 15}N HSQC of proteins: a real improvement in resolution and sensitivity
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kiraly, Peter; Adams, Ralph W.; Paudel, Liladhar; Foroozandeh, Mohammadali [University of Manchester, School of Chemistry (United Kingdom); Aguilar, Juan A. [Durham University, Department of Chemistry (United Kingdom); Timári, István [University of Debrecen, Department of Inorganic and Analytical Chemistry (Hungary); Cliff, Matthew J. [University of Manchester, Manchester Institute of Biotechnology (United Kingdom); Nilsson, Mathias [University of Manchester, School of Chemistry (United Kingdom); Sándor, Péter [Agilent Technologies R& D and Marketing GmbH & Co. KG (Germany); Batta, Gyula [University of Debrecen, Department of Organic Chemistry (Hungary); Waltho, Jonathan P. [University of Manchester, Manchester Institute of Biotechnology (United Kingdom); Kövér, Katalin E. [University of Debrecen, Department of Inorganic and Analytical Chemistry (Hungary); Morris, Gareth A., E-mail: g.a.morris@manchester.ac.uk [University of Manchester, School of Chemistry (United Kingdom)
2015-05-15
Spectral resolution in proton NMR spectroscopy is reduced by the splitting of resonances into multiplets due to the effect of homonuclear scalar couplings. Although these effects are often hidden in protein NMR spectroscopy by low digital resolution and routine apodization, behind the scenes homonuclear scalar couplings increase spectral overcrowding. The possibilities for biomolecular NMR offered by new pure shift NMR methods are illustrated here. Both resolution and sensitivity are improved, without any increase in experiment time. In these experiments, free induction decays are collected in short bursts of data acquisition, with durations short on the timescale of J-evolution, interspersed with suitable refocusing elements. The net effect is real-time (t{sub 2}) broadband homodecoupling, suppressing the multiplet structure caused by proton–proton interactions. The key feature of the refocusing elements is that they discriminate between the resonances of active (observed) and passive (coupling partner) spins. This can be achieved either by using band-selective refocusing or by the BIRD element, in both cases accompanied by a nonselective 180° proton pulse. The latter method selects the active spins based on their one-bond heteronuclear J-coupling to {sup 15}N, while the former selects a region of the {sup 1}H spectrum. Several novel pure shift experiments are presented, and the improvements in resolution and sensitivity they provide are evaluated for representative samples: the N-terminal domain of PGK; ubiquitin; and two mutants of the small antifungal protein PAF. These new experiments, delivering improved sensitivity and resolution, have the potential to replace the current standard HSQC experiments.
Real-Time Tropospheric Delay Estimation using IGS Products
Stürze, Andrea; Liu, Sha; Söhne, Wolfgang
2014-05-01
The Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy (BKG) routinely provides zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) parameter for the assimilation in numerical weather models since more than 10 years. Up to now the results flowing into the EUREF Permanent Network (EPN) or E-GVAP (EUMETNET EIG GNSS water vapour programme) analysis are based on batch processing of GPS+GLONASS observations in differential network mode. For the recently started COST Action ES1206 about "Advanced Global Navigation Satellite Systems tropospheric products for monitoring severe weather events and climate" (GNSS4SWEC), however, rapid updates in the analysis of the atmospheric state for nowcasting applications require changing the processing strategy towards real-time. In the RTCM SC104 (Radio Technical Commission for Maritime Services, Special Committee 104) a format combining the advantages of Precise Point Positioning (PPP) and Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) is under development. The so-called State Space Representation approach is defining corrections, which will be transferred in real-time to the user e.g. via NTRIP (Network Transport of RTCM via Internet Protocol). Meanwhile messages for precise orbits, satellite clocks and code biases compatible to the basic PPP mode using IGS products are defined. Consequently, the IGS Real-Time Service (RTS) was launched in 2013 in order to extend the well-known precise orbit and clock products by a real-time component. Further messages e.g. with respect to ionosphere or phase biases are foreseen. Depending on the level of refinement, so different accuracies up to the RTK level shall be reachable. In co-operation of BKG and the Technical University of Darmstadt the real-time software GEMon (GREF EUREF Monitoring) is under development. GEMon is able to process GPS and GLONASS observation and RTS product data streams in PPP mode. Furthermore, several state-of-the-art troposphere models, for example based on numerical weather prediction data, are implemented. Hence, it
Hauser, Donna D W; Laidre, Kristin L; Stafford, Kathleen M; Stern, Harry L; Suydam, Robert S; Richard, Pierre R
2017-06-01
Migrations are often influenced by seasonal environmental gradients that are increasingly being altered by climate change. The consequences of rapid changes in Arctic sea ice have the potential to affect migrations of a number of marine species whose timing is temporally matched to seasonal sea ice cover. This topic has not been investigated for Pacific Arctic beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) that follow matrilineally maintained autumn migrations in the waters around Alaska and Russia. For the sympatric Eastern Chukchi Sea ('Chukchi') and Eastern Beaufort Sea ('Beaufort') beluga populations, we examined changes in autumn migration timing as related to delayed regional sea ice freeze-up since the 1990s, using two independent data sources (satellite telemetry data and passive acoustics) for both populations. We compared dates of migration between 'early' (1993-2002) and 'late' (2004-2012) tagging periods. During the late tagging period, Chukchi belugas had significantly delayed migrations (by 2 to >4 weeks, depending on location) from the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. Spatial analyses also revealed that departure from Beaufort Sea foraging regions by Chukchi whales was postponed in the late period. Chukchi beluga autumn migration timing occurred significantly later as regional sea ice freeze-up timing became later in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Bering seas. In contrast, Beaufort belugas did not shift migration timing between periods, nor was migration timing related to freeze-up timing, other than for southward migration at the Bering Strait. Passive acoustic data from 2008 to 2014 provided independent and supplementary support for delayed migration from the Beaufort Sea (4 day yr -1 ) by Chukchi belugas. Here, we report the first phenological study examining beluga whale migrations within the context of their rapidly transforming Pacific Arctic ecosystem, suggesting flexible responses that may enable their persistence yet also complicate predictions of how
Beyond Newton's Law of Cooling--Estimation of Time since Death
Leinbach, Carl
2011-01-01
The estimate of the time since death and, thus, the time of death is strictly that, an estimate. However, the time of death can be an important piece of information in some coroner's cases, especially those that involve criminal or insurance investigations. It has been known almost from the beginning of time that bodies cool after the internal…
time of arrival 3-d position estimation using minimum ads-b receiver ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
HOD
The location from which a signal is transmitted can be estimated using the time it takes to be detected at a receiver. The difference between transmission time and the detection time is known as time of arrival (TOA). In this work, an algorithm for 3-dimensional (3-D) position estimation (PE) of an emitter using the minimum ...
The generalized correlation method for estimation of time delay in power plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kostic, Lj.
1981-01-01
The generalized correlation estimation is developed for determining time delay between signals received at two spatially separated sensors in the presence of uncorrelated noise in a power plant. This estimator can be realized as a pair of receiver prefilters followed by a cross correlator. The time argument at which the correlator achieves a maximum is the delay estimate. (author)
Estimation of functional preparedness of young handballers in setup time
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Favoritоv V.N.
2012-11-01
Full Text Available The dynamics of level of functional preparedness of young handballers in setup time is shown. It was foreseen to make alteration in educational-training process with the purpose of optimization of their functional preparedness. 11 youths were plugged in research, calendar age 14 - 15 years. For determination of level of their functional preparedness the computer program "SVSM" was applied. It is set that at the beginning of setup time of 18,18% of all respondent functional preparedness is characterized by a "middle" level, 27,27% - below the "average", 54,54% - "above" the average. At the end of setup time among sportsmen representatives prevailed with the level of functional preparedness "above" average - 63,63%, with level "high" - 27,27%, sportsmen with level below the average were not observed. Efficiency of the offered system of trainings employments for optimization of functional preparedness of young handballers is well-proven.
Time and space variability of spectral estimates of atmospheric pressure
Canavero, Flavio G.; Einaudi, Franco
1987-01-01
The temporal and spatial behaviors of atmospheric pressure spectra over the northern Italy and the Alpine massif were analyzed using data on surface pressure measurements carried out at two microbarograph stations in the Po Valley, one 50 km south of the Alps, the other in the foothills of the Dolomites. The first 15 days of the study overlapped with the Alpex Intensive Observation Period. The pressure records were found to be intrinsically nonstationary and were found to display substantial time variability, implying that the statistical moments depend on time. The shape and the energy content of spectra depended on different time segments. In addition, important differences existed between spectra obtained at the two stations, indicating a substantial effect of topography, particularly for periods less than 40 min.
Jankowska, Marzena; Kupka, Teobald; Stobiński, Leszek; Faber, Rasmus; Lacerda, Evanildo G; Sauer, Stephan P A
2016-02-05
Hartree-Fock and density functional theory with the hybrid B3LYP and general gradient KT2 exchange-correlation functionals were used for nonrelativistic and relativistic nuclear magnetic shielding calculations of helium, neon, argon, krypton, and xenon dimers and free atoms. Relativistic corrections were calculated with the scalar and spin-orbit zeroth-order regular approximation Hamiltonian in combination with the large Slater-type basis set QZ4P as well as with the four-component Dirac-Coulomb Hamiltonian using Dyall's acv4z basis sets. The relativistic corrections to the nuclear magnetic shieldings and chemical shifts are combined with nonrelativistic coupled cluster singles and doubles with noniterative triple excitations [CCSD(T)] calculations using the very large polarization-consistent basis sets aug-pcSseg-4 for He, Ne and Ar, aug-pcSseg-3 for Kr, and the AQZP basis set for Xe. For the dimers also, zero-point vibrational (ZPV) corrections are obtained at the CCSD(T) level with the same basis sets were added. Best estimates of the dimer chemical shifts are generated from these nuclear magnetic shieldings and the relative importance of electron correlation, ZPV, and relativistic corrections for the shieldings and chemical shifts is analyzed. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Real-time Wind Profile Estimation using Airborne Sensors
In 't Veld, A.C.; De Jong, P.M.A.; Van Paassen, M.M.; Mulder, M.
2011-01-01
Wind is one of the major contributors to uncertainty in continuous descent approach operations. Especially when aircraft that are flying low or idle thrust approaches are issued a required time of arrival over the runway threshold, as is foreseen in some of the future ATC scenarios, the on-board
Estimating epidemic arrival times using linear spreading theory
Chen, Lawrence M.; Holzer, Matt; Shapiro, Anne
2018-01-01
We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is composed of a system of ordinary differential equations describing a meta-population susceptible-infected-recovered compartmental model defined on a network where each node represents a city and the edges represent the flight paths connecting cities. Making use of the linear determinacy of the system, we consider spreading speeds and arrival times in the system linearized about the unstable disease free state and compare these to arrival times in the nonlinear system. Two predictions are presented. The first is based upon expansion of the heat kernel for the linearized system. The second assumes that the dominant transmission pathway between any two cities can be approximated by a one dimensional lattice or a homogeneous tree and gives a uniform prediction for arrival times independent of the specific network features. We test these predictions on a real network describing worldwide airline traffic.
A simple data fusion method for instantaneous travel time estimation
Do, Michael; Pueboobpaphan, R.; Miska, Marc; Kuwahara, Masao; van Arem, Bart; Viegas, J.M.; Macario, R.
2010-01-01
Travel time is one of the most understandable parameters to describe traffic condition and an important input to many intelligent transportation systems applications. Direct measurement from Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) system is promising but the data arrives too late, only after the vehicles
Cheong, Chin Wen
2008-02-01
This article investigated the influences of structural breaks on the fractionally integrated time-varying volatility model in the Malaysian stock markets which included the Kuala Lumpur composite index and four major sectoral indices. A fractionally integrated time-varying volatility model combined with sudden changes is developed to study the possibility of structural change in the empirical data sets. Our empirical results showed substantial reduction in fractional differencing parameters after the inclusion of structural change during the Asian financial and currency crises. Moreover, the fractionally integrated model with sudden change in volatility performed better in the estimation and specification evaluations.
Muchlisoh, Siti; Kurnia, Anang; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Mangku, I. Wayan
2016-02-01
Labor force surveys conducted over time by the rotating panel design have been carried out in many countries, including Indonesia. Labor force survey in Indonesia is regularly conducted by Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik-BPS) and has been known as the National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas). The main purpose of Sakernas is to obtain information about unemployment rates and its changes over time. Sakernas is a quarterly survey. The quarterly survey is designed only for estimating the parameters at the provincial level. The quarterly unemployment rate published by BPS (official statistics) is calculated based on only cross-sectional methods, despite the fact that the data is collected under rotating panel design. The study purpose to estimate a quarterly unemployment rate at the district level used small area estimation (SAE) model by combining time series and cross-sectional data. The study focused on the application and comparison between the Rao-Yu model and dynamic model in context estimating the unemployment rate based on a rotating panel survey. The goodness of fit of both models was almost similar. Both models produced an almost similar estimation and better than direct estimation, but the dynamic model was more capable than the Rao-Yu model to capture a heterogeneity across area, although it was reduced over time.
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Estimating retention potential of headwater catchment using Tritium time series
Hofmann, Harald; Cartwright, Ian; Morgenstern, Uwe
2018-06-01
Headwater catchments provide substantial streamflow to rivers even during long periods of drought. Documenting the mean transit times (MTT) of stream water in headwater catchments and therefore the retention capacities of these catchments is crucial for water management. This study uses time series of 3H activities in combination with major ion concentrations, stable isotope ratios and radon activities (222Rn) in the Lyrebird Creek catchment in Victoria, Australia to provide a unique insight into the mean transit time distributions and flow systems of this small temperate headwater catchment. At all streamflows, the stream has 3H activities (water in the stream is derived from stores with long transit times. If the water in the catchment can be represented by a single store with a continuum of ages, mean transit times of the stream water range from ∼6 up to 40 years, which indicates the large retention potential for this catchment. Alternatively, variations of 3H activities, stable isotopes and major ions can be explained by mixing between of young recent recharge and older water stored in the catchment. While surface runoff is negligible, the variation in stable isotope ratios, major ion concentrations and radon activities during most of the year is minimal (±12%) and only occurs during major storm events. This suggests that different subsurface water stores are activated during the storm events and that these cease to provide water to the stream within a few days or weeks after storm events. The stores comprise micro and macropore flow in the soils and saprolite as well as the boundary between the saprolite and the fractured bed rock. Hydrograph separations from three major storm events using Tritium, electrical conductivity and selected major ions as well a δ18O suggest a minimum of 50% baseflow at most flow conditions. We demonstrate that headwater catchments can have a significant storage capacity and that the relationship between long-water stores and
Estimating Time To Complete for ATLAS data transfers
Bogado Garcia, Joaquin Ignacio; The ATLAS collaboration; Monticelli, Fernando
2018-01-01
Transfer Time To Complete (T³C) is a new extension for the data management system Rucio that allows to make predictions about the duration of a file transfer. The extension has a modular architecture which allows to make predictions based on simple to more sophisticated models, depending on available data and computation power. The ability to predict file transfer times with reasonable accuracy provides a tool for better transfer scheduling and thus reduces both the load on storage systems and the associated networks. The accuracy of the model requires fine tuning for its parameters on a link basis. As the underlying infrastructure varies depending on the source and destination of the transfer, the parameters modelling the network between these sites will also be studied.
Estimation of Curve Tracing Time in Supercapacitor based PV Characterization
Basu Pal, Sudipta; Das Bhattacharya, Konika; Mukherjee, Dipankar; Paul, Debkalyan
2017-08-01
Smooth and noise-free characterisation of photovoltaic (PV) generators have been revisited with renewed interest in view of large size PV arrays making inroads into the urban sector of major developing countries. Such practice has recently been observed to be confronted by the use of a suitable data acquisition system and also the lack of a supporting theoretical analysis to justify the accuracy of curve tracing. However, the use of a selected bank of supercapacitors can mitigate the said problems to a large extent. Assuming a piecewise linear analysis of the V-I characteristics of a PV generator, an accurate analysis of curve plotting time has been possible. The analysis has been extended to consider the effect of equivalent series resistance of the supercapacitor leading to increased accuracy (90-95%) of curve plotting times.
Estimation of Hurst Exponent for the Financial Time Series
Kumar, J.; Manchanda, P.
2009-07-01
Till recently statistical methods and Fourier analysis were employed to study fluctuations in stock markets in general and Indian stock market in particular. However current trend is to apply the concepts of wavelet methodology and Hurst exponent, see for example the work of Manchanda, J. Kumar and Siddiqi, Journal of the Frankline Institute 144 (2007), 613-636 and paper of Cajueiro and B. M. Tabak. Cajueiro and Tabak, Physica A, 2003, have checked the efficiency of emerging markets by computing Hurst component over a time window of 4 years of data. Our goal in the present paper is to understand the dynamics of the Indian stock market. We look for the persistency in the stock market through Hurst exponent and fractal dimension of time series data of BSE 100 and NIFTY 50.
Real-time estimation of wildfire perimeters from curated crowdsourcing
Zhong, Xu; Duckham, Matt; Chong, Derek; Tolhurst, Kevin
2016-04-01
Real-time information about the spatial extents of evolving natural disasters, such as wildfire or flood perimeters, can assist both emergency responders and the general public during an emergency. However, authoritative information sources can suffer from bottlenecks and delays, while user-generated social media data usually lacks the necessary structure and trustworthiness for reliable automated processing. This paper describes and evaluates an automated technique for real-time tracking of wildfire perimeters based on publicly available “curated” crowdsourced data about telephone calls to the emergency services. Our technique is based on established data mining tools, and can be adjusted using a small number of intuitive parameters. Experiments using data from the devastating Black Saturday wildfires (2009) in Victoria, Australia, demonstrate the potential for the technique to detect and track wildfire perimeters automatically, in real time, and with moderate accuracy. Accuracy can be further increased through combination with other authoritative demographic and environmental information, such as population density and dynamic wind fields. These results are also independently validated against data from the more recent 2014 Mickleham-Dalrymple wildfires.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zeng, Heqing; Jia, Gensuo; Forbes, Bruce C
2013-01-01
There is an urgent need to reduce the uncertainties in remotely sensed detection of phenological shifts of high latitude ecosystems in response to climate changes in past decades. In this study, vegetation phenology in western Arctic Russia (the Yamal Peninsula) was investigated by analyzing and comparing Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and SPOT-Vegetation (VGT) during the decade 2000–2010. The spatial patterns of key phenological parameters were highly heterogeneous along the latitudinal gradients based on multi-satellite data. There was earlier SOS (start of the growing season), later EOS (end of the growing season), longer LOS (length of the growing season), and greater MaxNDVI from north to south in the region. The results based on MODIS and VGT data showed similar trends in phenological changes from 2000 to 2010, while quite a different trend was found based on AVHRR data from 2000 to 2008. A significantly delayed EOS (p < 0.01), thus increasing the LOS, was found from AVHRR data, while no similar trends were detected from MODIS and VGT data. There were no obvious shifts in MaxNDVI during the last decade. MODIS and VGT data were considered to be preferred data for monitoring vegetation phenology in northern high latitudes. Temperature is still a key factor controlling spatial phenological gradients and variability, while anthropogenic factors (reindeer husbandry and resource exploitation) might explain the delayed SOS in southern Yamal. Continuous environmental damage could trigger a positive feedback to the delayed SOS. (letter)
Improving The Accuracy Of Bluetooth Based Travel Time Estimation Using Low-Level Sensor Data
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Araghi, Bahar Namaki; Tørholm Christensen, Lars; Krishnan, Rajesh
2013-01-01
triggered by a single device. This could lead to location ambiguity and reduced accuracy of travel time estimation. Therefore, the accuracy of travel time estimations by Bluetooth Technology (BT) depends upon how location ambiguity is handled by the estimation method. The issue of multiple detection events...... in the context of travel time estimation by BT has been considered by various researchers. However, treatment of this issue has remained simplistic so far. Most previous studies simply used the first detection event (Enter-Enter) as the best estimate. No systematic analysis for exploring the most accurate method...... of estimating travel time using multiple detection events has been conducted. In this study different aspects of BT detection zone, including size and its impact on the accuracy of travel time estimation, are discussed. Moreover, four alternative methods are applied; namely, Enter-Enter, Leave-Leave, Peak...
Andersson, Maria; Lindh, Magnus
2017-11-01
It is well known that human rotavirus group A is the most important cause of severe diarrhoea in infants and young children. Less is known about rotavirus infections in other age groups, and about how rotavirus genotypes change over time in different age groups. Develop a real-time PCR to easily genotype rotavirus strains in order to monitor the pattern of circulating genotypes. In this study, rotavirus strains in clinical samples from children and adults in Western Sweden during 2010-2014 were retrospectively genotyped by using specific amplification of VP 4 and VP 7 genes with a new developed real-rime PCR. A genotype was identified in 97% of 775 rotavirus strains. G1P[8] was the most common genotype representing 34.9%, followed by G2P[4] (28.3%), G9P[8] (11.5%), G3P[8] (8.1%), and G4P[8] (7.9%) The genotype distribution changed over time, from predominance of G1P[8] in 2010-2012 to predominance of G2P[4] in 2013-2014. There were also age-related differences, with G1P[8] being the most common genotype in children under 2 years (47.6%), and G2P[4] the most common in those over 70 years of age (46.1%.). The shift to G2P[4] in 2013-2014 was associated with a change in the age distribution, with a greater number of rotavirus positive cases in elderly than in children. By using a new real-time PCR method for genotyping we found that genotype distribution was age related and changed over time with a decreasing proportion of G1P[8]. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Grycewicz, Thomas J.; Florio, Christopher J.; Franz, Geoffrey A.; Robinson, Ross E.
2007-09-01
When using Fourier plane digital algorithms or an optical correlator to measure the correlation between digital images, interpolation by center-of-mass or quadratic estimation techniques can be used to estimate image displacement to the sub-pixel level. However, this can lead to a bias in the correlation measurement. This bias shifts the sub-pixel output measurement to be closer to the nearest pixel center than the actual location. The paper investigates the bias in the outputs of both digital and optical correlators, and proposes methods to minimize this effect. We use digital studies and optical implementations of the joint transform correlator to demonstrate optical registration with accuracies better than 0.1 pixels. We use both simulations of image shift and movies of a moving target as inputs. We demonstrate bias error for both center-of-mass and quadratic interpolation, and discuss the reasons that this bias is present. Finally, we suggest measures to reduce or eliminate the bias effects. We show that when sub-pixel bias is present, it can be eliminated by modifying the interpolation method. By removing the bias error, we improve registration accuracy by thirty percent.
Liu, Kai; Cui, Meng-Ying; Cao, Peng; Wang, Jiang-Bo
2016-01-01
On urban arterials, travel time estimation is challenging especially from various data sources. Typically, fusing loop detector data and probe vehicle data to estimate travel time is a troublesome issue while considering the data issue of uncertain, imprecise and even conflicting. In this paper, we propose an improved data fusing methodology for link travel time estimation. Link travel times are simultaneously pre-estimated using loop detector data and probe vehicle data, based on which Bayesian fusion is then applied to fuse the estimated travel times. Next, Iterative Bayesian estimation is proposed to improve Bayesian fusion by incorporating two strategies: 1) substitution strategy which replaces the lower accurate travel time estimation from one sensor with the current fused travel time; and 2) specially-designed conditions for convergence which restrict the estimated travel time in a reasonable range. The estimation results show that, the proposed method outperforms probe vehicle data based method, loop detector based method and single Bayesian fusion, and the mean absolute percentage error is reduced to 4.8%. Additionally, iterative Bayesian estimation performs better for lighter traffic flows when the variability of travel time is practically higher than other periods.
Hoeksema, F.W.; Srinivasan, R.; Schiphorst, Roelof; Slump, Cornelis H.
2004-01-01
In joint timing and carrier offset estimation algorithms for Time Division Duplexing (TDD) OFDM systems, different timing metrics are proposed to determine the beginning of a burst or symbol. In this contribution we investigated the different timing metrics in order to establish their impact on the
[Phylogeny and divergence time estimation of Schizothoracinae fishes in Xinjiang].
Ayelhan, Haysa; Guo, Yan; Meng, Wei; Yang, Tianyan; Ma, Yanwu
2014-10-01
Based on combined data of mitochondrial COI, ND4 and 16S RNA genes, molecular phylogeny of 4 genera, 10 species or subspecies of Schizothoracinae fishes distributed in Xinjiang were analyzed. The molecular clock was calibrated by divergence time of Cyprininae and geological segregation event between the upper Yellow River and Qinghai Lake. Divergence time of Schizothoracinae fishes was calculated, and its relationship with the major geological events and the climate changes in surrounding areas of Tarim Basin was discussed. The results showed that genus Aspiorhynchus did not form an independent clade, but clustered with Schizothorax biddulphi and S. irregularis. Kimura 2-parameter model was used to calculate the genetic distance of COI gene, the genetic distance between genus Aspiorhynchus and Schizothorax did not reach genus level, and Aspiorhynchus laticeps might be a specialized species of genus Schizothorax. Cluster analysis showed a different result with morphological classification method, and it did not support the subgenus division of Schizothorax fishes. Divergence of two groups of primitive Schizothoracinae (8.18Ma) and divergence of Gymnodiptychus dybowskii and Diptychus maculates (7.67Ma) occurred in late Miocene, which might be related with the separation of Kunlun Mountain and north Tianshan Mountain River system that was caused by the uplift of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Tianshan Mountain, and the aridification of Tarim Basin. The terrain of Tarim Basin that was affected by Quaternary Himalayan movement was high in west but low in east, as a result, Lop Nor became the center of surrounding mountain rivers in Tarim Basin, which shaped the distribution pattern of genus Schizothorax.
Estimating time to pregnancy from current durations in a cross-sectional sample
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Keiding, Niels; Kvist, Kajsa; Hartvig, Helle
2002-01-01
A new design for estimating the distribution of time to pregnancy is proposed and investigated. The design is based on recording current durations in a cross-sectional sample of women, leading to statistical problems similar to estimating renewal time distributions from backward recurrence times....
Heeringa, A. N.; van Dijk, P.
Excessive noise exposure is known to produce an auditory threshold shift, which can be permanent or transient in nature. Recent studies showed that noise-induced temporary threshold shifts are associated with loss of synaptic connections to the inner hair cells and with cochlear nerve degeneration,
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Auriane eGros
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Objective: Time perception is fundamental for human experience. A topic which has attracted the attention of researchers since long time is how the stimulus sensory modality (e.g., images vs. sounds affects time judgments. However, so far, no study has directly compared the effect of two sensory modalities using emotional stimuli on time judgments.Methods: In the present two studies, healthy participants were asked to estimate the duration of a pure sound preceded by the presentation of odors vs. emotional videos as priming stimuli (implicit emotion-eliciting task. During the task, skin conductance (SC was measured as an index of arousal. Results: Olfactory stimuli resulted in an increase in SC and in a constant time overestimation. Video stimuli resulted in an increase SC (emotional arousal, which decreased linearly overtime. Critically, video stimuli resulted in an initial time underestimation, which shifted progressively towards a time overestimation. These results suggest that video stimuli recruited both arousal-related and attention-related mechanisms, and that the role played by these mechanisms changed overtime. Conclusions: These pilot studies highlight the importance of comparing the effect of different kinds on temporal estimation tasks, and suggests that odors are well suited to investigate arousal-related temporal distortions, while videos are ideal to investigate both arousal-related and attention-related mechanisms.
Afshar, Mehran; Evison, Felicity; James, Nicholas D; Patel, Prashant
2015-08-01
Castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) has retained a guarded prognosis, with historical survival estimates of 18 to 24 months. However, the landscape of available therapy has changed, and the emphasis has altered from supportive to active treatment. Few large series from real-world populations exist in the contemporary era with fully mature survival data to confirm the indication based on clinical trials that patients with CRPC are surviving far longer than the historical estimates. We aim to review a large patient cohort with CRPC and provide mature survival data. Using the electronic histopathology database at Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Birmingham, UK, all prostate-specific antigentest results between April 2006 and September 2007 were extracted, and patients satisfying the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) definition of hormone failure were identified. Electronic records were reviewed and variables were collected, including survival, treatment, biochemistry, histopathology, and demographics. Probability of survival, and of developing metastasis or CRPC, was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method. Patients were stratified into 3 groups, namely, D0--no metastasis at diagnosis but later appearance, D1--no metastasis at diagnosis or at last follow-up, and D2--metastasis at diagnosis. From 8,062 patient-prostate-specific antigen episodes, we identified 447 patients meeting the criteria. A notes review revealed 147 patients with CRPC. Median overall survival (OS) from diagnosis was 84.7 months (95% CI: 73-89), and 129 deaths had occurred (88%). Median OS from diagnosis for D0, D1, and D2 patients was 100.4, 180.1, and 58.9 months, respectively (Pdata benefit clinicians and patients in understanding prognosis and treatment choices. Importantly, our patients were diagnosed before the current wave of novel therapeutics for CRPC, so survival for men diagnosed today may be more than our findings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
A theory of timing in scintillation counters based on maximum likelihood estimation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tomitani, Takehiro
1982-01-01
A theory of timing in scintillation counters based on the maximum likelihood estimation is presented. An optimum filter that minimizes the variance of timing is described. A simple formula to estimate the variance of timing is presented as a function of photoelectron number, scintillation decay constant and the single electron transit time spread in the photomultiplier. The present method was compared with the theory by E. Gatti and V. Svelto. The proposed method was applied to two simple models and rough estimations of potential time resolution of several scintillators are given. The proposed method is applicable to the timing in Cerenkov counters and semiconductor detectors as well. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Por, G.
1999-08-01
being connected with the feedback in the given system. It characterises the stability of the system i.e. the tendency (or the level) of the signal to have oscillating character. An algorithm was developed to find extrema of the ACF automatically. Upper (DR1) and lower bound (DR2) are calculated from the ratio of maxima and minima correspondingly. Calculation of time dependent APSD - The time dependent APSD is calculated from the time dependent ACF via FFT. It can follow the spectral changes with an accuracy of one time step. Details, how and why we arrived to this recipe above, are explained in this report. First we summarise the basis definitions for these parameters and then we explain why pre-processing is needed for good statistical estimations. Finally, we describe our algorithm to estimate the ACF, DR and APSD. We present also some results on test data. Hopefully, application of these algorithms on JET shots as presented proves, that; the filtering methods proposed and elaborated are adequate to prepare the signals for data processing, the DR is a good tool to find places where oscillation definitely takes place, the proposed weighting method for estimating time dependent ACF is a suitable tool to find the frequency shift of the main periodic component in the time signal, it is possible to estimate good, reliable, short range, time dependent APSD based on such ACF
Estimated health impact of a shift from light fuel to residential wood-burning in Upper Austria.
Haluza, Daniela; Kaiser, August; Moshammer, Hanns; Flandorfer, Claudia; Kundi, Michael; Neuberger, Manfred
2012-07-01
The dependency on carbon-based fossil energy and growing awareness of climate change issues has induced ambitious policy initiatives to promote renewable energy sources for indoor heating. Combustion of regionally available material such as wood is considered a carbon-neutral alternative for oil and gas, but unregulated revival of wood stoves may cause detrimental health effects. For the prognosis of the health impact of air pollution due to the use of wood stoves, Upper Austria served for a case study. On the basis of recent measurements of particulate matter fuel oil by either fossil gas or biomass, and for scenario 3, replacement of light fuel oil by biomass only. Compared with the current exposure from scenario 1, the increased annual mean PM10 levels are estimated to lead to 101 (95% CI 56;146) and 174 (95% CI 92;257) additional deaths among 1.4 million inhabitants per year for scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Without adequate strategies for reducing the emissions of domestic heating facilities, replacement of fossil energy sources could lead to an increased health risk.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tatiana Fernandes Carpinteiro Silva
2014-10-01
Full Text Available One strategy that has been used for treat patients with mental health disorder is the implementation of psychosocial interventions. Like the development of a new drug, which requires safety studies before efficacy assessment, the psychosocial interventions should be implemented following defined stages, with the objective of increase the validity and reliability of such interventions. These stages are IA (pre-pilot, IB (pilot study, II (randomized clinical trial and III (additional studies. This study proposes a description of all activities carried out in implementation of the pre-pilot (IA Critical Time Intervention – Task Shifting (CTI-TS, including the development of manuals and the development of an instrument to assess fidelity to the original protocol. As a result, were performed the adaptation of instruments to be used in the pilot study, the adaptation of CTI-TS manual to Brazilian context, the adaptation of the agents CTI-TS training manual, as well the development of the CTI-TS assessment scale fidelity and its instruction manual. This allows multicentric studies conducted in different contexts could be performed avoiding biases. Considering that Brazil is a country that lacks resources allocated to mental care, it is expected that more psychosocial interventions can be implemented, since it was possible to develop the implementation process according to the methods recommended by the international scientific literature.
Andersen, S K; Müller, M M
2010-08-03
A central question in the field of attention is whether visual processing is a strictly limited resource, which must be allocated by selective attention. If this were the case, attentional enhancement of one stimulus should invariably lead to suppression of unattended distracter stimuli. Here we examine voluntary cued shifts of feature-selective attention to either one of two superimposed red or blue random dot kinematograms (RDKs) to test whether such a reciprocal relationship between enhancement of an attended and suppression of an unattended stimulus can be observed. The steady-state visual evoked potential (SSVEP), an oscillatory brain response elicited by the flickering RDKs, was measured in human EEG. Supporting limited resources, we observed both an enhancement of the attended and a suppression of the unattended RDK, but this observed reciprocity did not occur concurrently: enhancement of the attended RDK started at 220 ms after cue onset and preceded suppression of the unattended RDK by about 130 ms. Furthermore, we found that behavior was significantly correlated with the SSVEP time course of a measure of selectivity (attended minus unattended) but not with a measure of total activity (attended plus unattended). The significant deviations from a temporally synchronized reciprocity between enhancement and suppression suggest that the enhancement of the attended stimulus may cause the suppression of the unattended stimulus in the present experiment.
Face to phase: pitfalls in time delay estimation from coherency phase
Campfens, S.F.; van der Kooij, Herman; Schouten, Alfred Christiaan
2014-01-01
Coherency phase is often interpreted as a time delay reflecting a transmission delay between spatially separated neural populations. However, time delays estimated from corticomuscular coherency are conflicting and often shorter than expected physiologically. Recent work suggests that
Freeway travel time estimation using existing fixed traffic sensors : phase 2.
2015-03-01
Travel time, one of the most important freeway performance metrics, can be easily estimated using the : data collected from fixed traffic sensors, avoiding the need to install additional travel time data collectors. : This project is aimed at fully u...
DOTD support for UTC project : travel time estimation using bluetooth, [research project capsule].
2013-10-01
Travel time estimates are useful tools for measuring congestion in an urban area. Current : practice involves using probe vehicles or video cameras to measure travel time, but this is a laborintensive and expensive means of obtaining the information....
2012-12-01
Estimates of value of time (VOT) and value of travel time savings (VTTS) are critical elements in benefitcost : analyses of transportation projects and in developing congestion pricing policies. In addition, : differences in VTTS among various modes ...
Methodology for Time-Domain Estimation of Storm-Time Electric Fields Using the 3D Earth Impedance
Kelbert, A.; Balch, C. C.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Egbert, G. D.; Love, J. J.; Rigler, E. J.; Fujii, I.
2016-12-01
Magnetic storms can induce geoelectric fields in the Earth's electrically conducting interior, interfering with the operations of electric-power grid industry. The ability to estimate these electric fields at Earth's surface in close to real-time and to provide local short-term predictions would improve the ability of the industry to protect their operations. At any given time, the electric field at the Earth's surface is a function of the time-variant magnetic activity (driven by the solar wind), and the local electrical conductivity structure of the Earth's crust and mantle. For this reason, implementation of an operational electric field estimation service requires an interdisciplinary, collaborative effort between space science, real-time space weather operations, and solid Earth geophysics. We highlight in this talk an ongoing collaboration between USGS, NOAA, NASA, Oregon State University, and the Japan Meteorological Agency, to develop algorithms that can be used for scenario analyses and which might be implemented in a real-time, operational setting. We discuss the development of a time domain algorithm that employs discrete time domain representation of the impedance tensor for a realistic 3D Earth, known as the discrete time impulse response (DTIR), convolved with the local magnetic field time series, to estimate the local electric field disturbances. The algorithm is validated against measured storm-time electric field data collected in the United States and Japan. We also discuss our plans for operational real-time electric field estimation using 3D Earth impedances.
A test of alternative estimators for volume at time 1 from remeasured point samples
Francis A. Roesch; Edwin J. Green; Charles T. Scott
1993-01-01
Two estimators for volume at time 1 for use with permanent horizontal point samples are evaluated. One estimator, used traditionally, uses only the trees sampled at time 1, while the second estimator, originally presented by Roesch and coauthors (F.A. Roesch, Jr., E.J. Green, and C.T. Scott. 1989. For. Sci. 35(2):281-293). takes advantage of additional sample...
Ab initio quantum-enhanced optical phase estimation using real-time feedback control
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Berni, Adriano; Gehring, Tobias; Nielsen, Bo Melholt
2015-01-01
of a quantum-enhanced and fully deterministic ab initio phase estimation protocol based on real-time feedback control. Using robust squeezed states of light combined with a real-time Bayesian adaptive estimation algorithm, we demonstrate deterministic phase estimation with a precision beyond the quantum shot...... noise limit. The demonstrated protocol opens up new opportunities for quantum microscopy, quantum metrology and quantum information processing....
Estimation of train dwell time at short stops based on track occupation event data
Li, D.; Daamen, W.; Goverde, R.M.P.
2015-01-01
Train dwell time is one of the most unpredictable components of railway operations mainly due to the varying volumes of alighting and boarding passengers. For reliable estimations of train running times and route conflicts on main lines it is however necessary to obtain accurate estimations of dwell
Time Estimation in Alzheimer's Disease and the Role of the Central Executive
Papagno, Costanza; Allegra, Adele; Cardaci, Maurizio
2004-01-01
The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of short-term memory and attention in time estimation. For this purpose we studied prospective time verbal estimation in 21 patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD), and compared their performance with that of 21 matched normal controls in two different conditions: during a digit span task and during an…
2010-03-01
The objectives of this project were to (a) produce historic estimates of travel times on Twin-Cities arterials : for 1995 and 2005, and (b) develop an initial architecture and database that could, in the future, produce timely : estimates of arterial...
Accurate Lithium-ion battery parameter estimation with continuous-time system identification methods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xia, Bing; Zhao, Xin; Callafon, Raymond de; Garnier, Hugues; Nguyen, Truong; Mi, Chris
2016-01-01
Highlights: • Continuous-time system identification is applied in Lithium-ion battery modeling. • Continuous-time and discrete-time identification methods are compared in detail. • The instrumental variable method is employed to further improve the estimation. • Simulations and experiments validate the advantages of continuous-time methods. - Abstract: The modeling of Lithium-ion batteries usually utilizes discrete-time system identification methods to estimate parameters of discrete models. However, in real applications, there is a fundamental limitation of the discrete-time methods in dealing with sensitivity when the system is stiff and the storage resolutions are limited. To overcome this problem, this paper adopts direct continuous-time system identification methods to estimate the parameters of equivalent circuit models for Lithium-ion batteries. Compared with discrete-time system identification methods, the continuous-time system identification methods provide more accurate estimates to both fast and slow dynamics in battery systems and are less sensitive to disturbances. A case of a 2"n"d-order equivalent circuit model is studied which shows that the continuous-time estimates are more robust to high sampling rates, measurement noises and rounding errors. In addition, the estimation by the conventional continuous-time least squares method is further improved in the case of noisy output measurement by introducing the instrumental variable method. Simulation and experiment results validate the analysis and demonstrate the advantages of the continuous-time system identification methods in battery applications.
Bayesian Nonparametric Mixture Estimation for Time-Indexed Functional Data in R
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Terrance D. Savitsky
2016-08-01
Full Text Available We present growfunctions for R that offers Bayesian nonparametric estimation models for analysis of dependent, noisy time series data indexed by a collection of domains. This data structure arises from combining periodically published government survey statistics, such as are reported in the Current Population Study (CPS. The CPS publishes monthly, by-state estimates of employment levels, where each state expresses a noisy time series. Published state-level estimates from the CPS are composed from household survey responses in a model-free manner and express high levels of volatility due to insufficient sample sizes. Existing software solutions borrow information over a modeled time-based dependence to extract a de-noised time series for each domain. These solutions, however, ignore the dependence among the domains that may be additionally leveraged to improve estimation efficiency. The growfunctions package offers two fully nonparametric mixture models that simultaneously estimate both a time and domain-indexed dependence structure for a collection of time series: (1 A Gaussian process (GP construction, which is parameterized through the covariance matrix, estimates a latent function for each domain. The covariance parameters of the latent functions are indexed by domain under a Dirichlet process prior that permits estimation of the dependence among functions across the domains: (2 An intrinsic Gaussian Markov random field prior construction provides an alternative to the GP that expresses different computation and estimation properties. In addition to performing denoised estimation of latent functions from published domain estimates, growfunctions allows estimation of collections of functions for observation units (e.g., households, rather than aggregated domains, by accounting for an informative sampling design under which the probabilities for inclusion of observation units are related to the response variable. growfunctions includes plot
Estimating the level of dynamical noise in time series by using fractal dimensions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sase, Takumi; Ramírez, Jonatán Peña; Kitajo, Keiichi; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Hirata, Yoshito
2016-01-01
We present a method for estimating the dynamical noise level of a ‘short’ time series even if the dynamical system is unknown. The proposed method estimates the level of dynamical noise by calculating the fractal dimensions of the time series. Additionally, the method is applied to EEG data to demonstrate its possible effectiveness as an indicator of temporal changes in the level of dynamical noise. - Highlights: • A dynamical noise level estimator for time series is proposed. • The estimator does not need any information about the dynamics generating the time series. • The estimator is based on a novel definition of time series dimension (TSD). • It is demonstrated that there exists a monotonic relationship between the • TSD and the level of dynamical noise. • We apply the proposed method to human electroencephalographic data.
Estimating the level of dynamical noise in time series by using fractal dimensions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sase, Takumi, E-mail: sase@sat.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Graduate School of Information Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan); Ramírez, Jonatán Peña [CONACYT Research Fellow, Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education at Ensenada (CICESE), Carretera Ensenada-Tijuana No. 3918, Zona Playitas, C.P. 22860, Ensenada, Baja California (Mexico); Kitajo, Keiichi [BSI-Toyota Collaboration Center, RIKEN Brain Science Institute, Wako, Saitama 351-0198 (Japan); Aihara, Kazuyuki; Hirata, Yoshito [Graduate School of Information Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan); Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan)
2016-03-11
We present a method for estimating the dynamical noise level of a ‘short’ time series even if the dynamical system is unknown. The proposed method estimates the level of dynamical noise by calculating the fractal dimensions of the time series. Additionally, the method is applied to EEG data to demonstrate its possible effectiveness as an indicator of temporal changes in the level of dynamical noise. - Highlights: • A dynamical noise level estimator for time series is proposed. • The estimator does not need any information about the dynamics generating the time series. • The estimator is based on a novel definition of time series dimension (TSD). • It is demonstrated that there exists a monotonic relationship between the • TSD and the level of dynamical noise. • We apply the proposed method to human electroencephalographic data.
Stenger, M. B.; Hargens, A. R.; Dulchavsky, S. A.; Arbeille, P.; Danielson, R. W.; Ebert, D. J.; Garcia, K. M.; Johnston, S. L.; Laurie, S. S.; Lee, S. M. C.;
2017-01-01
pulsatility); (5) ocular measures (optical coherence tomography; intraocular pressure; 2-dimensional ultrasound including optic nerve sheath diameter, globe flattening, and retina-choroid thickness; Doppler ultrasound of ophthalmic and retinal arteries and veins); (6) cardiac variables by ultrasound (inferior vena cava, tricuspid flow and tissue Doppler, pulmonic valve, stroke volume, right heart dimensions and function, four-chamber views); and (7) ICP measures (tympanic membrane displacement, otoacoustic emissions). Pre- and post-flight, acute head-down tilt will induce cephalad fluid shifts, whereas lower body negative pressure will oppose these shifts. Controlled Mueller maneuvers will manipulate cardiovascular variables. Through interventions applied before, during, and after flight, we intend to fully evaluate the relationship between fluid shifts and the VIIP syndrome. Discussion. Ten subjects have consented to participate in this experiment, including the recent One-Year Mission crewmembers, who have recently completed R plus180 testing; all other subjects have completed pre-flight testing. Preliminary results from the One-Year Mission crewmembers will be presented, including measures of ocular structure and function, vascular dimensions, fluid distribution, and non-invasive estimates of intracranial pressure.
Using linear time-invariant system theory to estimate kinetic parameters directly from projection measurements
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zeng, G.L.; Gullberg, G.T.
1995-01-01
It is common practice to estimate kinetic parameters from dynamically acquired tomographic data by first reconstructing a dynamic sequence of three-dimensional reconstructions and then fitting the parameters to time activity curves generated from the time-varying reconstructed images. However, in SPECT, the pharmaceutical distribution can change during the acquisition of a complete tomographic data set, which can bias the estimated kinetic parameters. It is hypothesized that more accurate estimates of the kinetic parameters can be obtained by fitting to the projection measurements instead of the reconstructed time sequence. Estimation from projections requires the knowledge of their relationship between the tissue regions of interest or voxels with particular kinetic parameters and the project measurements, which results in a complicated nonlinear estimation problem with a series of exponential factors with multiplicative coefficients. A technique is presented in this paper where the exponential decay parameters are estimated separately using linear time-invariant system theory. Once the exponential factors are known, the coefficients of the exponentials can be estimated using linear estimation techniques. Computer simulations demonstrate that estimation of the kinetic parameters directly from the projections is more accurate than the estimation from the reconstructed images
Deroshia, C. W.; Winget, C. M.; Bond, G. H.
1976-01-01
A model developed by Wever (1966) is considered. The model describes the behavior of circadian rhythms in response to photoperiod phase shifts simulating time zone changes, as a function of endogenous periodicity, light intensity, and direction of phase shift. A description is given of an investigation conducted to test the model upon the deep body temperature rhythm in unrestrained subhuman primates. An evaluation is conducted regarding the applicability of the model in predicting the type and duration of desynchronization induced by simulated time zone changes as a function of endogenous periodicity.
Stein, R Will; Brown, Joseph W; Mooers, Arne Ø
2015-11-01
The phylogeny of Galliformes (landfowl) has been studied extensively; however, the associated chronologies have been criticized recently due to misplaced or misidentified fossil calibrations. As a consequence, it is unclear whether any crown-group lineages arose in the Cretaceous and survived the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg; 65.5 Ma) mass extinction. Using Bayesian phylogenetic inference on an alignment spanning 14,539 bp of mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence data, four fossil calibrations, and a combination of uncorrelated lognormally distributed relaxed-clock and strict-clock models, we inferred a time-calibrated molecular phylogeny for 225 of the 291 extant Galliform taxa. These analyses suggest that crown Galliformes diversified in the Cretaceous and that three-stem lineages survived the K-Pg mass extinction. Ideally, characterizing the tempo and mode of diversification involves a taxonomically complete phylogenetic hypothesis. We used simple constraint structures to incorporate 66 data-deficient taxa and inferred the first taxon-complete phylogenetic hypothesis for the Galliformes. Diversification analyses conducted on 10,000 timetrees sampled from the posterior distribution of candidate trees show that the evolutionary history of the Galliformes is best explained by a rate-shift model including 1-3 clade-specific increases in diversification rate. We further show that the tempo and mode of diversification in the Galliformes conforms to a three-pulse model, with three-stem lineages arising in the Cretaceous and inter and intrafamilial diversification occurring after the K-Pg mass extinction, in the Paleocene-Eocene (65.5-33.9 Ma) or in association with the Eocene-Oligocene transition (33.9 Ma). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Wireless data collection system for real-time arterial travel time estimates.
2011-03-01
This project pursued several objectives conducive to the implementation and testing of a Bluetooth (BT) based system to collect travel time data, including the deployment of a BT-based travel time data collection system to perform comprehensive testi...
Life time estimation of SSCs for decommissioning safety of nuclear facilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jeong, Kwan-Seong; Lee, Kune-Woo; Moon, Jei-Kwon; Jeong, Seong-Young; Lee, Jung-Jun; Kim, Geun-Ho; Choi, Byung-Seon
2012-01-01
Highlights: ► This paper suggests the expectation algorithm of SSCs life time for decommissioning safety of nuclear facilities. ► The life time of SSCs can be estimated by using fuzzy theory. ► The estimated results depend on the membership functions and performance characteristic functions. - Abstract: This paper suggests the estimation algorithm for life time of structure, system and components (SSCs) for decommissioning safety of nuclear facilities using the performance data of linguistic languages and fuzzy theory. The fuzzy estimation algorithm of life time can be easily applicable but the estimated results depend on the relevant membership functions and performance characteristic functions. This method will be expected to be very useful for maintenance and decommissioning of nuclear facilities’ SSCs as a safety assessment tool.
The current duration design for estimating the time to pregnancy distribution
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gasbarra, Dario; Arjas, Elja; Vehtari, Aki
2015-01-01
This paper was inspired by the studies of Niels Keiding and co-authors on estimating the waiting time-to-pregnancy (TTP) distribution, and in particular on using the current duration design in that context. In this design, a cross-sectional sample of women is collected from those who are currently...... attempting to become pregnant, and then by recording from each the time she has been attempting. Our aim here is to study the identifiability and the estimation of the waiting time distribution on the basis of current duration data. The main difficulty in this stems from the fact that very short waiting...... times are only rarely selected into the sample of current durations, and this renders their estimation unstable. We introduce here a Bayesian method for this estimation problem, prove its asymptotic consistency, and compare the method to some variants of the non-parametric maximum likelihood estimators...
Claure, Yuri Navarro; Matsubara, Edson Takashi; Padovani, Carlos; Prati, Ronaldo Cristiano
2018-03-01
Traditional methods for estimating timing parameters in hydrological science require a rigorous study of the relations of flow resistance, slope, flow regime, watershed size, water velocity, and other local variables. These studies are mostly based on empirical observations, where the timing parameter is estimated using empirically derived formulas. The application of these studies to other locations is not always direct. The locations in which equations are used should have comparable characteristics to the locations from which such equations have been derived. To overcome this barrier, in this work, we developed a data-driven approach to estimate timing parameters such as travel time. Our proposal estimates timing parameters using historical data of the location without the need of adapting or using empirical formulas from other locations. The proposal only uses one variable measured at two different locations on the same river (for instance, two river-level measurements, one upstream and the other downstream on the same river). The recorded data from each location generates two time series. Our method aligns these two time series using derivative dynamic time warping (DDTW) and perceptually important points (PIP). Using data from timing parameters, a polynomial function generalizes the data by inducing a polynomial water travel time estimator, called PolyWaTT. To evaluate the potential of our proposal, we applied PolyWaTT to three different watersheds: a floodplain ecosystem located in the part of Brazil known as Pantanal, the world's largest tropical wetland area; and the Missouri River and the Pearl River, in United States of America. We compared our proposal with empirical formulas and a data-driven state-of-the-art method. The experimental results demonstrate that PolyWaTT showed a lower mean absolute error than all other methods tested in this study, and for longer distances the mean absolute error achieved by PolyWaTT is three times smaller than empirical
Low-sampling-rate ultra-wideband channel estimation using equivalent-time sampling
Ballal, Tarig
2014-09-01
In this paper, a low-sampling-rate scheme for ultra-wideband channel estimation is proposed. The scheme exploits multiple observations generated by transmitting multiple pulses. In the proposed scheme, P pulses are transmitted to produce channel impulse response estimates at a desired sampling rate, while the ADC samples at a rate that is P times slower. To avoid loss of fidelity, the number of sampling periods (based on the desired rate) in the inter-pulse interval is restricted to be co-prime with P. This condition is affected when clock drift is present and the transmitted pulse locations change. To handle this case, and to achieve an overall good channel estimation performance, without using prior information, we derive an improved estimator based on the bounded data uncertainty (BDU) model. It is shown that this estimator is related to the Bayesian linear minimum mean squared error (LMMSE) estimator. Channel estimation performance of the proposed sub-sampling scheme combined with the new estimator is assessed in simulation. The results show that high reduction in sampling rate can be achieved. The proposed estimator outperforms the least squares estimator in almost all cases, while in the high SNR regime it also outperforms the LMMSE estimator. In addition to channel estimation, a synchronization method is also proposed that utilizes the same pulse sequence used for channel estimation. © 2014 IEEE.
Sohn, Jae-Cheon; Labandeira, Conrad C; Davis, Donald R
2015-02-04
It is conventionally accepted that the lepidopteran fossil record is significantly incomplete when compared to the fossil records of other, very diverse, extant insect orders. Such an assumption, however, has been based on cumulative diversity data rather than using alternative statistical approaches from actual specimen counts. We reviewed documented specimens of the lepidopteran fossil record, currently consisting of 4,593 known specimens that are comprised of 4,262 body fossils and 331 trace fossils. The temporal distribution of the lepidopteran fossil record shows significant bias towards the late Paleocene to middle Eocene time interval. Lepidopteran fossils also record major shifts in preservational style and number of represented localities at the Mesozoic stage and Cenozoic epoch level of temporal resolution. Only 985 of the total known fossil specimens (21.4%) were assigned to 23 of the 40 extant lepidopteran superfamilies. Absolute numbers and proportions of preservation types for identified fossils varied significantly across superfamilies. The secular increase of lepidopteran family-level diversity through geologic time significantly deviates from the general pattern of other hyperdiverse, ordinal-level lineages. Our statistical analyses of the lepidopteran fossil record show extreme biases in preservation type, age, and taxonomic composition. We highlight the scarcity of identified lepidopteran fossils and provide a correspondence between the latest lepidopteran divergence-time estimates and relevant fossil occurrences at the superfamily level. These findings provide caution in interpreting the lepidopteran fossil record through the modeling of evolutionary diversification and in determination of divergence time estimates.
Chen, Liang; Zhao, Qile; Hu, Zhigang; Jiang, Xinyuan; Geng, Changjiang; Ge, Maorong; Shi, Chuang
2018-01-01
Lots of ambiguities in un-differenced (UD) model lead to lower calculation efficiency, which isn't appropriate for the high-frequency real-time GNSS clock estimation, like 1 Hz. Mixed differenced model fusing UD pseudo-range and epoch-differenced (ED) phase observations has been introduced into real-time clock estimation. In this contribution, we extend the mixed differenced model for realizing multi-GNSS real-time clock high-frequency updating and a rigorous comparison and analysis on same conditions are performed to achieve the best real-time clock estimation performance taking the efficiency, accuracy, consistency and reliability into consideration. Based on the multi-GNSS real-time data streams provided by multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX) and Wuhan University, GPS + BeiDou + Galileo global real-time augmentation positioning prototype system is designed and constructed, including real-time precise orbit determination, real-time precise clock estimation, real-time Precise Point Positioning (RT-PPP) and real-time Standard Point Positioning (RT-SPP). The statistical analysis of the 6 h-predicted real-time orbits shows that the root mean square (RMS) in radial direction is about 1-5 cm for GPS, Beidou MEO and Galileo satellites and about 10 cm for Beidou GEO and IGSO satellites. Using the mixed differenced estimation model, the prototype system can realize high-efficient real-time satellite absolute clock estimation with no constant clock-bias and can be used for high-frequency augmentation message updating (such as 1 Hz). The real-time augmentation message signal-in-space ranging error (SISRE), a comprehensive accuracy of orbit and clock and effecting the users' actual positioning performance, is introduced to evaluate and analyze the performance of GPS + BeiDou + Galileo global real-time augmentation positioning system. The statistical analysis of real-time augmentation message SISRE is about 4-7 cm for GPS, whlile 10 cm for Beidou IGSO/MEO, Galileo and about 30 cm
Polanco Martínez, Josue M.; Medina-Elizalde, Martin; Burns, Stephen J.; Jiang, Xiuyang; Shen, Chuan-Chou
2015-04-01
It has been widely accepted by the paleoclimate and archaeology communities that extreme climate events (especially droughts) and past climate change played an important role in the cultural changes that occurred in at least some parts of the Maya Lowlands, from the Pre-Classic (2000 BC to 250 AD) to Post-Classic periods (1000 to 1521 AD) [1, 2]. In particular, a large number of studies suggest that the decline of the Maya civilization in the Terminal Classic Period was greatly influenced by prolonged severe drought events that probably triggered significant societal disruptions [1, 3, 4, 5]. Going further on these issues, the aim of this work is to detect climate regime shifts in several paleoclimate time series from the Yucatán Peninsula (México) that have been used as rainfall proxies [3, 5, 6, 7]. In order to extract information from the paleoclimate data studied, we have used a change point method [8] as implemented in the R package strucchange, as well as the RAMFIT method [9]. The preliminary results show for all the records analysed a prominent regime shift between 400 to 200 BCE (from a noticeable increase to a remarkable fall in precipitation), which is strongest in the recently obtained stalagmite (Itzamna) delta18-O precipitation record [7]. References [1] Gunn, J. D., Matheny, R. T., Folan, W. J., 2002. Climate-change studies in the Maya area. Ancient Mesoamerica, 13(01), 79-84. [2] Yaeger, J., Hodell, D. A., 2008. The collapse of Maya civilization: assessing the interaction of culture, climate, and environment. El Niño, Catastrophism, and Culture Change in Ancient America, 197-251. [3] Hodell, D. A., Curtis, J. H., Brenner, M., 1995. Possible role of climate in the collapse of Classic Maya civilization. Nature, 375(6530), 391-394. [4] Aimers, J., Hodell, D., 2011. Societal collapse: Drought and the Maya. Nature 479(7371), 44-45 (2011). [5] Medina-Elizalde, M., Rohling, E. J., 2012. Collapse of Classic Maya civilization related to modest reduction
The fossilized birth–death process for coherent calibration of divergence-time estimates
Heath, Tracy A.; Huelsenbeck, John P.; Stadler, Tanja
2014-01-01
Time-calibrated species phylogenies are critical for addressing a wide range of questions in evolutionary biology, such as those that elucidate historical biogeography or uncover patterns of coevolution and diversification. Because molecular sequence data are not informative on absolute time, external data—most commonly, fossil age estimates—are required to calibrate estimates of species divergence dates. For Bayesian divergence time methods, the common practice for calibration using fossil information involves placing arbitrarily chosen parametric distributions on internal nodes, often disregarding most of the information in the fossil record. We introduce the “fossilized birth–death” (FBD) process—a model for calibrating divergence time estimates in a Bayesian framework, explicitly acknowledging that extant species and fossils are part of the same macroevolutionary process. Under this model, absolute node age estimates are calibrated by a single diversification model and arbitrary calibration densities are not necessary. Moreover, the FBD model allows for inclusion of all available fossils. We performed analyses of simulated data and show that node age estimation under the FBD model results in robust and accurate estimates of species divergence times with realistic measures of statistical uncertainty, overcoming major limitations of standard divergence time estimation methods. We used this model to estimate the speciation times for a dataset composed of all living bears, indicating that the genus Ursus diversified in the Late Miocene to Middle Pliocene. PMID:25009181
Marti, Andrea R; Patil, Sudarshan; Mrdalj, Jelena; Meerlo, Peter; Skrede, Silje; Pallesen, Ståle; Pedersen, Torhild T; Bramham, Clive R; Grønli, Janne
2017-01-01
Millions of people worldwide work during the night, resulting in disturbed circadian rhythms and sleep loss. This may cause deficits in cognitive functions, impaired alertness and increased risk of errors and accidents. Disturbed circadian rhythmicity resulting from night shift work could impair brain function and cognition through disrupted synthesis of proteins involved in synaptic plasticity and neuronal function. Recently, the circadian transcription factor brain-and-muscle arnt-like protein 1 (BMAL1) has been identified as a promoter of mRNA translation initiation, the most highly regulated step in protein synthesis, through binding to the mRNA "cap". In this study we investigated the effects of simulated shift work on protein synthesis markers. Male rats ( n = 40) were exposed to forced activity, either in their rest phase (simulated night shift work) or in their active phase (simulated day shift work) for 3 days. Following the third work shift, experimental animals and time-matched undisturbed controls were euthanized (rest work at ZT12; active work at ZT0). Tissue lysates from two brain regions (prefrontal cortex, PFC and hippocampus) implicated in cognition and sleep loss, were analyzed with m 7 GTP (cap) pull-down to examine time-of-day variation and effects of simulated shift work on cap-bound protein translation. The results show time-of-day variation of protein synthesis markers in PFC, with increased protein synthesis at ZT12. In the hippocampus there was little difference between ZT0 and ZT12. Active phase work did not induce statistically significant changes in protein synthesis markers at ZT0 compared to time-matched undisturbed controls. Rest work, however, resulted in distinct brain-region specific changes of protein synthesis markers compared to time-matched controls at ZT12. While no changes were observed in the hippocampus, phosphorylation of cap-bound BMAL1 and its regulator S6 kinase beta-1 (S6K1) was significantly reduced in the PFC
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrea R. Marti
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Millions of people worldwide work during the night, resulting in disturbed circadian rhythms and sleep loss. This may cause deficits in cognitive functions, impaired alertness and increased risk of errors and accidents. Disturbed circadian rhythmicity resulting from night shift work could impair brain function and cognition through disrupted synthesis of proteins involved in synaptic plasticity and neuronal function. Recently, the circadian transcription factor brain-and-muscle arnt-like protein 1 (BMAL1 has been identified as a promoter of mRNA translation initiation, the most highly regulated step in protein synthesis, through binding to the mRNA “cap”. In this study we investigated the effects of simulated shift work on protein synthesis markers. Male rats (n = 40 were exposed to forced activity, either in their rest phase (simulated night shift work or in their active phase (simulated day shift work for 3 days. Following the third work shift, experimental animals and time-matched undisturbed controls were euthanized (rest work at ZT12; active work at ZT0. Tissue lysates from two brain regions (prefrontal cortex, PFC and hippocampus implicated in cognition and sleep loss, were analyzed with m7GTP (cap pull-down to examine time-of-day variation and effects of simulated shift work on cap-bound protein translation. The results show time-of-day variation of protein synthesis markers in PFC, with increased protein synthesis at ZT12. In the hippocampus there was little difference between ZT0 and ZT12. Active phase work did not induce statistically significant changes in protein synthesis markers at ZT0 compared to time-matched undisturbed controls. Rest work, however, resulted in distinct brain-region specific changes of protein synthesis markers compared to time-matched controls at ZT12. While no changes were observed in the hippocampus, phosphorylation of cap-bound BMAL1 and its regulator S6 kinase beta-1 (S6K1 was significantly reduced in
Kelbert, Anna; Balch, Christopher C.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Egbert, Gary D.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua; Fujii, Ikuko
2017-07-01
Geoelectric fields at the Earth's surface caused by magnetic storms constitute a hazard to the operation of electric power grids and related infrastructure. The ability to estimate these geoelectric fields in close to real time and provide local predictions would better equip the industry to mitigate negative impacts on their operations. Here we report progress toward this goal: development of robust algorithms that convolve a magnetic storm time series with a frequency domain impedance for a realistic three-dimensional (3-D) Earth, to estimate the local, storm time geoelectric field. Both frequency domain and time domain approaches are presented and validated against storm time geoelectric field data measured in Japan. The methods are then compared in the context of a real-time application.
On estimation of time-dependent attributable fraction from population-based case-control studies.
Zhao, Wei; Chen, Ying Qing; Hsu, Li
2017-09-01
Population attributable fraction (PAF) is widely used to quantify the disease burden associated with a modifiable exposure in a population. It has been extended to a time-varying measure that provides additional information on when and how the exposure's impact varies over time for cohort studies. However, there is no estimation procedure for PAF using data that are collected from population-based case-control studies, which, because of time and cost efficiency, are commonly used for studying genetic and environmental risk factors of disease incidences. In this article, we show that time-varying PAF is identifiable from a case-control study and develop a novel estimator of PAF. Our estimator combines odds ratio estimates from logistic regression models and density estimates of the risk factor distribution conditional on failure times in cases from a kernel smoother. The proposed estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal with asymptotic variance that can be estimated empirically from the data. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed estimator performs well in finite sample sizes. Finally, the method is illustrated by a population-based case-control study of colorectal cancer. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Akanda Md. Abdus Salam
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities and time dependence are fundamentally important for estimating the closed animal population parameters in capture-recapture studies. A generalized estimating equations (GEE approach accounts for linear correlation among capture-recapture occasions, and individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities in a closed population capture-recapture individual heterogeneity and time variation model. The estimated capture probabilities are used to estimate animal population parameters. Two real data sets are used for illustrative purposes. A simulation study is carried out to assess the performance of the GEE estimator. A Quasi-Likelihood Information Criterion (QIC is applied for the selection of the best fitting model. This approach performs well when the estimated population parameters depend on the individual heterogeneity and the nature of linear correlation among capture-recapture occasions.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Qingwu Gao
2012-01-01
Full Text Available We discuss the uniformly asymptotic estimate of the finite-time ruin probability for all times in a generalized compound renewal risk model, where the interarrival times of successive accidents and all the claim sizes caused by an accident are two sequences of random variables following a wide dependence structure. This wide dependence structure allows random variables to be either negatively dependent or positively dependent.
Lubey, D.; Scheeres, D.
Tracking objects in Earth orbit is fraught with complications. This is due to the large population of orbiting spacecraft and debris that continues to grow, passive (i.e. no direct communication) and data-sparse observations, and the presence of maneuvers and dynamics mismodeling. Accurate orbit determination in this environment requires an algorithm to capture both a system's state and its state dynamics in order to account for mismodelings. Previous studies by the authors yielded an algorithm called the Optimal Control Based Estimator (OCBE) - an algorithm that simultaneously estimates a system's state and optimal control policies that represent dynamic mismodeling in the system for an arbitrary orbit-observer setup. The stochastic properties of these estimated controls are then used to determine the presence of mismodelings (maneuver detection), as well as characterize and reconstruct the mismodelings. The purpose of this paper is to develop the OCBE into an accurate real-time orbit tracking and maneuver detection algorithm by automating the algorithm and removing its linear assumptions. This results in a nonlinear adaptive estimator. In its original form the OCBE had a parameter called the assumed dynamic uncertainty, which is selected by the user with each new measurement to reflect the level of dynamic mismodeling in the system. This human-in-the-loop approach precludes real-time application to orbit tracking problems due to their complexity. This paper focuses on the Adaptive OCBE, a version of the estimator where the assumed dynamic uncertainty is chosen automatically with each new measurement using maneuver detection results to ensure that state uncertainties are properly adjusted to account for all dynamic mismodelings. The paper also focuses on a nonlinear implementation of the estimator. Originally, the OCBE was derived from a nonlinear cost function then linearized about a nominal trajectory, which is assumed to be ballistic (i.e. the nominal optimal
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nagy, D.
2007-01-01
Previous conceptual studies made clear that the ITER blanket concept and segmentation is not suitable for the environment of a potential fusion power plant (DEMO). One promising concept to be used instead is the so-called Multi-Module-Segment (MMS) concept. Each MMS consists of a number of blankets arranged on a strong back plate thus forming ''banana'' shaped in-board (IB) and out-board (OB) segments. With respect to port size, weight, or other limiting aspects the IB and OB MMS are segmented in toroidal direction. The number of segments to be replaced would be below 100. For this segmentation concept a new maintenance scenario had to be worked out. The aim of this paper is to present a promising MMS maintenance scenario, a flexible scheme for time estimations under varying boundary conditions and preliminary time estimates. According to the proposed scenario two upper, vertical arranged maintenance ports have to be opened for blanket maintenance on opposite sides of the tokamak. Both ports are central to a 180 degree sector and the MMS are removed and inserted through both ports. In-vessel machines are operating to transport the elements in toroidal direction and also to insert and attach the MMS to the shield. Outside the vessel the elements have to be transported between the tokamak and the hot cell to be refurbished. Calculating the maintenance time for such a scenario is rather challenging due to the numerous parallel processes involved. For this reason a flexible, multi-level calculation scheme has been developed in which the operations are organized into three levels: At the lowest level the basic maintenance steps are determined. These are organized into maintenance sequences that take into account parallelisms in the system. Several maintenance sequences constitute the maintenance phases which correspond to a certain logistics scenario. By adding the required times of the maintenance phases the total maintenance time is obtained. The paper presents
Non-occupational physical activity levels of shift workers compared with non-shift workers.
Loef, Bette; Hulsegge, Gerben; Wendel-Vos, G C Wanda; Verschuren, W M Monique; Vermeulen, Roel C H; Bakker, Marije F; van der Beek, Allard J; Proper, Karin I
2017-05-01
Lack of physical activity (PA) has been hypothesised as an underlying mechanism in the adverse health effects of shift work. Therefore, our aim was to compare non-occupational PA levels between shift workers and non-shift workers. Furthermore, exposure-response relationships for frequency of night shifts and years of shift work regarding non-occupational PA levels were studied. Data of 5980 non-shift workers and 532 shift workers from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (EPIC-NL) were used in these cross-sectional analyses. Time spent (hours/week) in different PA types (walking/cycling/exercise/chores) and intensities (moderate/vigorous) were calculated based on self-reported PA. Furthermore, sports were operationalised as: playing sports (no/yes), individual versus non-individual sports, and non-vigorous-intensity versus vigorous-intensity sports. PA levels were compared between shift workers and non-shift workers using Generalized Estimating Equations and logistic regression. Shift workers reported spending more time walking than non-shift workers (B=2.3 (95% CI 1.2 to 3.4)), but shift work was not associated with other PA types and any of the sports activities. Shift workers who worked 1-4 night shifts/month (B=2.4 (95% CI 0.6 to 4.3)) and ≥5 night shifts/month (B=3.7 (95% CI 1.8 to 5.6)) spent more time walking than non-shift workers. No exposure-response relationships were found between years of shift work and PA levels. Shift workers spent more time walking than non-shift workers, but we observed no differences in other non-occupational PA levels. To better understand if and how PA plays a role in the negative health consequences of shift work, our findings need to be confirmed in future studies. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.
Rosch, E.
1975-01-01
The task of time estimation, an activity occasionally performed by pilots during actual flight, was investigated with the objective of providing human factors investigators with an unobtrusive and minimally loading additional task that is sensitive to differences in flying conditions and flight instrumentation associated with the main task of piloting an aircraft simulator. Previous research indicated that the duration and consistency of time estimates is associated with the cognitive, perceptual, and motor loads imposed by concurrent simple tasks. The relationships between the length and variability of time estimates and concurrent task variables under a more complex situation involving simulated flight were clarified. The wrap-around effect with respect to baseline duration, a consequence of mode switching at intermediate levels of concurrent task distraction, should contribute substantially to estimate variability and have a complex effect on the shape of the resulting distribution of estimates.
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Zoorob, SE
2018-01-01
Full Text Available he concept of temperature shift factor (aT) as defined by Doolittle, relating the free volume of a viscoelastic material at the current and reference states is briefly examined together with the resultant William-Landel-Ferry equation. This paper...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kaneko, Masashi [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Nuclear Science and Engineering Center (Japan); Yasuhara, Hiroki; Miyashita, Sunao; Nakashima, Satoru, E-mail: snaka@hiroshima-u.ac.jp [Hiroshima University, Graduate School of Science (Japan)
2017-11-15
The present study applies all-electron relativistic DFT calculation with Douglas-Kroll-Hess (DKH) Hamiltonian to each ten sets of Ru and Os compounds. We perform the benchmark investigation of three density functionals (BP86, B3LYP and B2PLYP) using segmented all-electron relativistically contracted (SARC) basis set with the experimental Mössbauer isomer shifts for {sup 99}Ru and {sup 189}Os nuclides. Geometry optimizations at BP86 theory of level locate the structure in a local minimum. We calculate the contact density to the wavefunction obtained by a single point calculation. All functionals show the good linear correlation with experimental isomer shifts for both {sup 99}Ru and {sup 189}Os. Especially, B3LYP functional gives a stronger correlation compared to BP86 and B2PLYP functionals. The comparison of contact density between SARC and well-tempered basis set (WTBS) indicated that the numerical convergence of contact density cannot be obtained, but the reproducibility is less sensitive to the choice of basis set. We also estimate the values of ΔR/R, which is an important nuclear constant, for {sup 99}Ru and {sup 189}Os nuclides by using the benchmark results. The sign of the calculated ΔR/R values is consistent with the predicted data for {sup 99}Ru and {sup 189}Os. We obtain computationally the ΔR/R values of {sup 99}Ru and {sup 189}Os (36.2 keV) as 2.35×10{sup −4} and −0.20×10{sup −4}, respectively, at B3LYP level for SARC basis set.
Stationary echo canceling in velocity estimation by time-domain cross-correlation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Jørgen Arendt
1993-01-01
The application of stationary echo canceling to ultrasonic estimation of blood velocities using time-domain cross-correlation is investigated. Expressions are derived that show the influence from the echo canceler on the signals that enter the cross-correlation estimator. It is demonstrated...
Tightness of M-estimators for multiple linear regression in time series
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Johansen, Søren; Nielsen, Bent
We show tightness of a general M-estimator for multiple linear regression in time series. The positive criterion function for the M-estimator is assumed lower semi-continuous and sufficiently large for large argument: Particular cases are the Huber-skip and quantile regression. Tightness requires...
Two-Step Time of Arrival Estimation for Pulse-Based Ultra-Wideband Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
H. Vincent Poor
2008-05-01
Full Text Available In cooperative localization systems, wireless nodes need to exchange accurate position-related information such as time-of-arrival (TOA and angle-of-arrival (AOA, in order to obtain accurate location information. One alternative for providing accurate position-related information is to use ultra-wideband (UWB signals. The high time resolution of UWB signals presents a potential for very accurate positioning based on TOA estimation. However, it is challenging to realize very accurate positioning systems in practical scenarios, due to both complexity/cost constraints and adverse channel conditions such as multipath propagation. In this paper, a two-step TOA estimation algorithm is proposed for UWB systems in order to provide accurate TOA estimation under practical constraints. In order to speed up the estimation process, the first step estimates a coarse TOA of the received signal based on received signal energy. Then, in the second step, the arrival time of the first signal path is estimated by considering a hypothesis testing approach. The proposed scheme uses low-rate correlation outputs and is able to perform accurate TOA estimation in reasonable time intervals. The simulation results are presented to analyze the performance of the estimator.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Takao, Seishin; Miyamoto, Naoki; Matsuura, Taeko; Onimaru, Rikiya; Katoh, Norio; Inoue, Tetsuya; Sutherland, Kenneth Lee; Suzuki, Ryusuke; Shirato, Hiroki; Shimizu, Shinichi
2016-01-01
Purpose: To investigate the frequency and amplitude of baseline shift or drift (shift/drift) of lung tumors in stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT), using a real-time tumor-tracking radiation therapy (RTRT) system. Methods and Materials: Sixty-eight patients with peripheral lung tumors were treated with SBRT using the RTRT system. One of the fiducial markers implanted near the tumor was used for the real-time monitoring of the intrafractional tumor motion every 0.033 seconds by the RTRT system. When baseline shift/drift is determined by the system, the position of the treatment couch is adjusted to compensate for the shift/drift. Therefore, the changes in the couch position correspond to the baseline shift/drift in the tumor motion. The frequency and amount of adjustment to the couch positions in the left-right (LR), cranio-caudal (CC), and antero-posterior (AP) directions have been analyzed for 335 fractions administered to 68 patients. Results: The average change in position of the treatment couch during the treatment time was 0.45 ± 2.23 mm (mean ± standard deviation), −1.65 ± 5.95 mm, and 1.50 ± 2.54 mm in the LR, CC, and AP directions, respectively. Overall the baseline shift/drift occurs toward the cranial and posterior directions. The incidence of baseline shift/drift exceeding 3 mm was 6.0%, 15.5%, 14.0%, and 42.1% for the LR, CC, AP, and for the square-root of sum of 3 directions, respectively, within 10 minutes of the start of treatment, and 23.0%, 37.6%, 32.5%, and 71.6% within 30 minutes. Conclusions: Real-time monitoring and frequent adjustments of the couch position and/or adding appropriate margins are suggested to be essential to compensate for possible underdosages due to baseline shift/drift in SBRT for lung cancers.
Barclay-Goddard, Ruth; King, Judy; Dubouloz, Claire-Jehanne; Schwartz, Carolyn E
2012-02-01
A major goal of treatment for people living with chronic illness or disability is self-management leading to optimized health-related quality of life. This change process has been described in the adult education literature as transformative learning, while in health-related quality of life research, response shift has emerged as a key concept. Response shift and transformative learning literature were reviewed, and the theoretical frameworks of the 2 concepts were compared and contrasted. Response shift is described as a change in internal standards, values, or definition of a construct (eg, health-related quality of life) over time, commonly seen in individuals with chronic illness. In the context of chronic illness, transformative learning is described as a complex process of personal change including beliefs, feelings, knowledge, and values. Transformative learning is often triggered by the diagnosis of a chronic illness. This results in a critical reflection of taken-for-granted assumptions and leads to new ways of thinking, influencing personal changes in daily living. Comparing the models of response shift and transformative learning in chronic illness, the catalyst in response shift appears comparable with the trigger in transformational learning; mechanisms to process of changing; and perceived quality of life to outcomes. Both transformative learning and response shift have much to offer health care providers in understanding the learning process for the person living with chronic illness or disability to optimize their quality of life. Suggestions for future research in response shift and transformative learning in individuals with chronic health conditions and disability are proposed. Copyright © 2012 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Estimation of traffic recovery time for different flow regimes on freeways.
2008-06-01
This study attempts to estimate post-incident traffic recovery time along a freeway using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. It has been found that there is a linear relationship between post-incident traffic recovery time, and incident time and traf...
Zheng, Fangfang; van Zuylen, H.J.; Liu, Xiaobo
2017-01-01
Urban travel times are rather variable as a result of a lot of stochastic factors both in traffic flows, signals, and other conditions on the infrastructure. However, the most common way both in literature and practice is to estimate or predict only expected travel times, not travel time
Heterogeneous Data Fusion Method to Estimate Travel Time Distributions in Congested Road Networks
Chaoyang Shi; Bi Yu Chen; William H. K. Lam; Qingquan Li
2017-01-01
Travel times in congested urban road networks are highly stochastic. Provision of travel time distribution information, including both mean and variance, can be very useful for travelers to make reliable path choice decisions to ensure higher probability of on-time arrival. To this end, a heterogeneous data fusion method is proposed to estimate travel time distributions by fusing heterogeneous data from point and interval detectors. In the proposed method, link travel time distributions are f...
DYNAMIC STRAIN MAPPING AND REAL-TIME DAMAGE STATE ESTIMATION UNDER BIAXIAL RANDOM FATIGUE LOADING
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — DYNAMIC STRAIN MAPPING AND REAL-TIME DAMAGE STATE ESTIMATION UNDER BIAXIAL RANDOM FATIGUE LOADING SUBHASISH MOHANTY*, ADITI CHATTOPADHYAY, JOHN N. RAJADAS, AND CLYDE...
Efficient Estimation for Diffusions Sampled at High Frequency Over a Fixed Time Interval
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jakobsen, Nina Munkholt; Sørensen, Michael
Parametric estimation for diffusion processes is considered for high frequency observations over a fixed time interval. The processes solve stochastic differential equations with an unknown parameter in the diffusion coefficient. We find easily verified conditions on approximate martingale...
Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index
Wang, Yingbin; Jiao, Yan
2015-05-01
The instantaneous total mortality rate ( Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis, abundance and catch forecast, and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method, the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time, but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant, and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z, and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates (the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore, the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them, but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997, and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.
Optimal replacement time estimation for machines and equipment based on cost function
J. Šebo; J. Buša; P. Demeč; J. Svetlík
2013-01-01
The article deals with a multidisciplinary issue of estimating the optimal replacement time for the machines. Considered categories of machines, for which the optimization method is usable, are of the metallurgical and engineering production. Different models of cost function are considered (both with one and two variables). Parameters of the models were calculated through the least squares method. Models testing show that all are good enough, so for estimation of optimal replacement time is ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yueyang Li
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper investigates the H∞ fixed-lag fault estimator design for linear discrete time-varying (LDTV systems with intermittent measurements, which is described by a Bernoulli distributed random variable. Through constructing a novel partially equivalent dynamic system, the fault estimator design is converted into a deterministic quadratic minimization problem. By applying the innovation reorganization technique and the projection formula in Krein space, a necessary and sufficient condition is obtained for the existence of the estimator. The parameter matrices of the estimator are derived by recursively solving two standard Riccati equations. An illustrative example is provided to show the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed algorithm.
Heterogeneous Data Fusion Method to Estimate Travel Time Distributions in Congested Road Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chaoyang Shi
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Travel times in congested urban road networks are highly stochastic. Provision of travel time distribution information, including both mean and variance, can be very useful for travelers to make reliable path choice decisions to ensure higher probability of on-time arrival. To this end, a heterogeneous data fusion method is proposed to estimate travel time distributions by fusing heterogeneous data from point and interval detectors. In the proposed method, link travel time distributions are first estimated from point detector observations. The travel time distributions of links without point detectors are imputed based on their spatial correlations with links that have point detectors. The estimated link travel time distributions are then fused with path travel time distributions obtained from the interval detectors using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Based on fused path travel time distribution, an optimization technique is further introduced to update link travel time distributions and their spatial correlations. A case study was performed using real-world data from Hong Kong and showed that the proposed method obtained accurate and robust estimations of link and path travel time distributions in congested road networks.
Heterogeneous Data Fusion Method to Estimate Travel Time Distributions in Congested Road Networks.
Shi, Chaoyang; Chen, Bi Yu; Lam, William H K; Li, Qingquan
2017-12-06
Travel times in congested urban road networks are highly stochastic. Provision of travel time distribution information, including both mean and variance, can be very useful for travelers to make reliable path choice decisions to ensure higher probability of on-time arrival. To this end, a heterogeneous data fusion method is proposed to estimate travel time distributions by fusing heterogeneous data from point and interval detectors. In the proposed method, link travel time distributions are first estimated from point detector observations. The travel time distributions of links without point detectors are imputed based on their spatial correlations with links that have point detectors. The estimated link travel time distributions are then fused with path travel time distributions obtained from the interval detectors using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Based on fused path travel time distribution, an optimization technique is further introduced to update link travel time distributions and their spatial correlations. A case study was performed using real-world data from Hong Kong and showed that the proposed method obtained accurate and robust estimations of link and path travel time distributions in congested road networks.
Real-time measurements and their effects on state estimation of distribution power system
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Han, Xue; You, Shi; Thordarson, Fannar
2013-01-01
between the estimated values (voltage and injected power) and the measurements are applied to evaluate the accuracy of the estimated grid states. Eventually, some suggestions are provided for the distribution grid operators on placing the real-time meters in the distribution grid.......This paper aims at analyzing the potential value of using different real-time metering and measuring instruments applied in the low voltage distribution networks for state-estimation. An algorithm is presented to evaluate different combinations of metering data using a tailored state estimator....... It is followed by a case study based on the proposed algorithm. A real distribution grid feeder with different types of meters installed either in the cabinets or at the customer side is selected for simulation and analysis. Standard load templates are used to initiate the state estimation. The deviations...
Heeringa, A N; van Dijk, P
2014-06-01
Excessive noise exposure is known to produce an auditory threshold shift, which can be permanent or transient in nature. Recent studies showed that noise-induced temporary threshold shifts are associated with loss of synaptic connections to the inner hair cells and with cochlear nerve degeneration, which is reflected in a decreased amplitude of wave I of the auditory brainstem response (ABR). This suggests that, despite normal auditory thresholds, central auditory processing may be abnormal. We recorded changes in central auditory processing following a sound-induced temporary threshold shift. Anesthetized guinea pigs were exposed for 1 h to a pure tone of 11 kHz (124 dB sound pressure level). Hearing thresholds, amplitudes of ABR waves I and IV, and spontaneous and tone-evoked firing rates in the inferior colliculus (IC) were assessed immediately, one week, two weeks, and four weeks post exposure. Hearing thresholds were elevated immediately following overexposure, but recovered within one week. The amplitude of the ABR wave I was decreased in all sound-exposed animals for all test periods. In contrast, the ABR wave IV amplitude was only decreased immediately after overexposure and recovered within a week. The proportion of IC units that show inhibitory responses to pure tones decreased substantially up to two weeks after overexposure, especially when stimulated with high frequencies. The proportion of excitatory responses to low frequencies was increased. Spontaneous activity was unaffected by the overexposure. Despite rapid normalization of auditory thresholds, our results suggest an increased central gain following sound exposure and an abnormal balance between excitatory and inhibitory responses in the midbrain up to two weeks after overexposure. These findings may be associated with hyperacusis after a sound-induced temporary threshold shift. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Andersen, S. K.; Müller, M. M.
2010-01-01
A central question in the field of attention is whether visual processing is a strictly limited resource, which must be allocated by selective attention. If this were the case, attentional enhancement of one stimulus should invariably lead to suppression of unattended distracter stimuli. Here we examine voluntary cued shifts of feature-selective attention to either one of two superimposed red or blue random dot kinematograms (RDKs) to test whether such a reciprocal relationship between enhanc...
Power System Real-Time Monitoring by Using PMU-Based Robust State Estimation Method
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zhao, Junbo; Zhang, Gexiang; Das, Kaushik
2016-01-01
Accurate real-time states provided by the state estimator are critical for power system reliable operation and control. This paper proposes a novel phasor measurement unit (PMU)-based robust state estimation method (PRSEM) to real-time monitor a power system under different operation conditions...... the system real-time states with good robustness and can address several kinds of BD.......-based bad data (BD) detection method, which can handle the smearing effect and critical measurement errors, is presented. We evaluate PRSEM by using IEEE benchmark test systems and a realistic utility system. The numerical results indicate that, in short computation time, PRSEM can effectively track...
Duchêne, Sebastián; Geoghegan, Jemma L; Holmes, Edward C; Ho, Simon Y W
2016-11-15
In rapidly evolving pathogens, including viruses and some bacteria, genetic change can accumulate over short time-frames. Accordingly, their sampling times can be used to calibrate molecular clocks, allowing estimation of evolutionary rates. Methods for estimating rates from time-structured data vary in how they treat phylogenetic uncertainty and rate variation among lineages. We compiled 81 virus data sets and estimated nucleotide substitution rates using root-to-tip regression, least-squares dating and Bayesian inference. Although estimates from these three methods were often congruent, this largely relied on the choice of clock model. In particular, relaxed-clock models tended to produce higher rate estimates than methods that assume constant rates. Discrepancies in rate estimates were also associated with high among-lineage rate variation, and phylogenetic and temporal clustering. These results provide insights into the factors that affect the reliability of rate estimates from time-structured sequence data, emphasizing the importance of clock-model testing. sduchene@unimelb.edu.au or garzonsebastian@hotmail.comSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Rickbeil, Gregory J M; Hermosilla, Txomin; Coops, Nicholas C; White, Joanne C; Wulder, Michael A
2017-01-01
Lichens form a critical portion of barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) diets, especially during winter months. Here, we assess lichen mat volume across five herd ranges in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, Canada, using newly developed composite Landsat imagery. The lichen volume estimator (LVE) was adapted for use across 700 000 km2 of barren ground caribou habitat annually from 1984-2012. We subsequently assessed how LVE changed temporally throughout the time series for each pixel using Theil-Sen's slopes, and spatially by assessing whether slope values were centered in local clusters of similar values. Additionally, we assessed how LVE estimates resulted in changes in barren ground caribou movement rates using an extensive telemetry data set from 2006-2011. The Ahiak/Beverly herd had the largest overall increase in LVE (median = 0.033), while the more western herds had the least (median slopes below zero in all cases). LVE slope pixels were arranged in significant clusters across the study area, with the Cape Bathurst, Bathurst, and Bluenose East herds having the most significant clusters of negative slopes (more than 20% of vegetated land in each case). The Ahiak/Beverly and Bluenose West had the most significant positive clusters (16.3% and 18.5% of vegetated land respectively). Barren ground caribou displayed complex reactions to changing lichen conditions depending on season; the majority of detected associations with movement data agreed with current understanding of barren ground caribou foraging behavior (the exception was an increase in movement velocity at high lichen volume estimates in Fall). The temporal assessment of LVE identified areas where shifts in ecological conditions may have resulted in changing lichen mat conditions, while assessing the slope estimates for clustering identified zones beyond the pixel scale where forage conditions may be changing. Lichen volume estimates associated with barren ground caribou
Hermosilla, Txomin; Coops, Nicholas C.; White, Joanne C.; Wulder, Michael A.
2017-01-01
Lichens form a critical portion of barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) diets, especially during winter months. Here, we assess lichen mat volume across five herd ranges in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, Canada, using newly developed composite Landsat imagery. The lichen volume estimator (LVE) was adapted for use across 700 000 km2 of barren ground caribou habitat annually from 1984–2012. We subsequently assessed how LVE changed temporally throughout the time series for each pixel using Theil-Sen’s slopes, and spatially by assessing whether slope values were centered in local clusters of similar values. Additionally, we assessed how LVE estimates resulted in changes in barren ground caribou movement rates using an extensive telemetry data set from 2006–2011. The Ahiak/Beverly herd had the largest overall increase in LVE (median = 0.033), while the more western herds had the least (median slopes below zero in all cases). LVE slope pixels were arranged in significant clusters across the study area, with the Cape Bathurst, Bathurst, and Bluenose East herds having the most significant clusters of negative slopes (more than 20% of vegetated land in each case). The Ahiak/Beverly and Bluenose West had the most significant positive clusters (16.3% and 18.5% of vegetated land respectively). Barren ground caribou displayed complex reactions to changing lichen conditions depending on season; the majority of detected associations with movement data agreed with current understanding of barren ground caribou foraging behavior (the exception was an increase in movement velocity at high lichen volume estimates in Fall). The temporal assessment of LVE identified areas where shifts in ecological conditions may have resulted in changing lichen mat conditions, while assessing the slope estimates for clustering identified zones beyond the pixel scale where forage conditions may be changing. Lichen volume estimates associated with barren ground caribou
Time-scales for runoff and erosion estimates, with implications for spatial scaling
Kirkby, M. J.; Irvine, B. J.; Dalen, E. N.
2009-04-01
Using rainfall data at high temporal resolution, runoff may be estimated for every bucket-tip, or for aggregated hourly or daily periods. Although there is no doubt that finer resolution gives substantially better estimates, many models make use of coarser time steps because these data are more widely available. This paper makes comparisons between runoff estimates based on infiltration measurements used with high resolution rainfall data for SE Spain and theoretical work on improving the time resolution in the PESERA model from daily to hourly values, for areas where these are available. For a small plot at fine temporal scale, runoff responds to bursts of intense rainfall which, for the Guadalentin catchment, typically lasts for about 30 minutes. However, when a larger area is considered, the large and unstructured variability in infiltration capacity produces an aggregate runoff that differs substantially from estimates using average infiltration parameters (in the Green-Ampt equation). When these estimates are compared with estimates based on rainfall for aggregated hourly or daily periods, using a simpler infiltration model, it can be seen that there a substantial scatter, as expected, but that suitable parameterisation can provide reasonable average estimates. Similar conclusions may be drawn for erosion estimates, assuming that sediment transport is proportional to a power of runoff discharge.. The spatial implications of these estimates can be made explicit with fine time resolution, showing that, with observed low overland flow velocities, only a small fraction of the hillside is generally able to deliver runoff to the nearest channel before rainfall intensity drops and runoff re-infiltrates. For coarser time resolutions, this has to be parameterised as a delivery ratio, and we show that how this ratio can be rationally estimated from rainfall characteristics.
Cara B. Fedick; Shelley Pacholok; Anne H. Gauthier
2005-01-01
Extensive small scale studies have documented that when people assume the role of assisting a person with impairments or an older person, care activities account for a significant portion of their daily routines. Nevertheless, little research has investigated the problem of measuring the time that carers spend in care-related activities. This paper contrasts two different measures of care time – an estimated average weekly hours question in the 1998 Australian Survey of Disability, Ageing and...
Van, Mien; Ge, Shuzhi Sam; Ren, Hongliang
2016-04-28
In this paper, a novel finite time fault tolerant control (FTC) is proposed for uncertain robot manipulators with actuator faults. First, a finite time passive FTC (PFTC) based on a robust nonsingular fast terminal sliding mode control (NFTSMC) is investigated. Be analyzed for addressing the disadvantages of the PFTC, an AFTC are then investigated by combining NFTSMC with a simple fault diagnosis scheme. In this scheme, an online fault estimation algorithm based on time delay estimation (TDE) is proposed to approximate actuator faults. The estimated fault information is used to detect, isolate, and accommodate the effect of the faults in the system. Then, a robust AFTC law is established by combining the obtained fault information and a robust NFTSMC. Finally, a high-order sliding mode (HOSM) control based on super-twisting algorithm is employed to eliminate the chattering. In comparison to the PFTC and other state-of-the-art approaches, the proposed AFTC scheme possess several advantages such as high precision, strong robustness, no singularity, less chattering, and fast finite-time convergence due to the combined NFTSMC and HOSM control, and requires no prior knowledge of the fault due to TDE-based fault estimation. Finally, simulation results are obtained to verify the effectiveness of the proposed strategy.
Generalized synchronization-based multiparameter estimation in modulated time-delayed systems
Ghosh, Dibakar; Bhattacharyya, Bidyut K.
2011-09-01
We propose a nonlinear active observer based generalized synchronization scheme for multiparameter estimation in time-delayed systems with periodic time delay. A sufficient condition for parameter estimation is derived using Krasovskii-Lyapunov theory. The suggested tool proves to be globally and asymptotically stable by means of Krasovskii-Lyapunov method. With this effective method, parameter identification and generalized synchronization of modulated time-delayed systems with all the system parameters unknown, can be achieved simultaneously. We restrict our study for multiple parameter estimation in modulated time-delayed systems with single state variable only. Theoretical proof and numerical simulation demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed technique. The block diagram of electronic circuit for multiple time delay system shows that the method is easily applicable in practical communication problems.
The estimation of turnover time in the Japan Sea bottom water by 129I
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Suzuki, Takashi; Togawa, Orihiko; Minakawa, Masayuki
2010-01-01
It is well known that the Japan Sea is sensitive for the environment such a global warming. To understand the oceanic circulation in the Japan Sea, we estimated a turnover time and a potential formation rate of the Japan Sea bottom water (JSBW) using an oceanographic tracer of 129 I. The turnover time of JSBW was calculated based on the increased concentration during the nuclear era. The turnover time was estimated to be 180 - 210 years. The potential formation rate of JSBW is calculated based on the existence of the anthropogenic 129 I in the JSBW. The potential formation rate of JSBW is estimated to be (3.6-4.1) x 10 12 m 3 /y which is consistent with another estimation and is about quarter of that of the upper Japan Sea proper water. (author)
Parameter Estimation of a Closed Loop Coupled Tank Time Varying System using Recursive Methods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Basir, Siti Nora; Yussof, Hanafiah; Shamsuddin, Syamimi; Selamat, Hazlina; Zahari, Nur Ismarrubie
2013-01-01
This project investigates the direct identification of closed loop plant using discrete-time approach. The uses of Recursive Least Squares (RLS), Recursive Instrumental Variable (RIV) and Recursive Instrumental Variable with Centre-Of-Triangle (RIV + COT) in the parameter estimation of closed loop time varying system have been considered. The algorithms were applied in a coupled tank system that employs covariance resetting technique where the time of parameter changes occur is unknown. The performances of all the parameter estimation methods, RLS, RIV and RIV + COT were compared. The estimation of the system whose output was corrupted with white and coloured noises were investigated. Covariance resetting technique successfully executed when the parameters change. RIV + COT gives better estimates than RLS and RIV in terms of convergence and maximum overshoot
Vadivel, P.; Sakthivel, R.; Mathiyalagan, K.; Arunkumar, A.
2013-09-01
This paper addresses the issue of robust state estimation for a class of fuzzy bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with time-varying delays and parameter uncertainties. By constructing the Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, which contains the triple-integral term and using the free-weighting matrix technique, a set of sufficient conditions are derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) to estimate the neuron states through available output measurements such that the dynamics of the estimation error system is robustly asymptotically stable. In particular, we consider a generalized activation function in which the traditional assumptions on the boundedness, monotony and differentiability of the activation functions are removed. More precisely, the design of the state estimator for such BAM neural networks can be obtained by solving some LMIs, which are dependent on the size of the time derivative of the time-varying delays. Finally, a numerical example with simulation result is given to illustrate the obtained theoretical results.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vadivel, P; Sakthivel, R; Mathiyalagan, K; Arunkumar, A
2013-01-01
This paper addresses the issue of robust state estimation for a class of fuzzy bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with time-varying delays and parameter uncertainties. By constructing the Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional, which contains the triple-integral term and using the free-weighting matrix technique, a set of sufficient conditions are derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) to estimate the neuron states through available output measurements such that the dynamics of the estimation error system is robustly asymptotically stable. In particular, we consider a generalized activation function in which the traditional assumptions on the boundedness, monotony and differentiability of the activation functions are removed. More precisely, the design of the state estimator for such BAM neural networks can be obtained by solving some LMIs, which are dependent on the size of the time derivative of the time-varying delays. Finally, a numerical example with simulation result is given to illustrate the obtained theoretical results. (paper)
Basavaraja, Jana; Suresh Kumar, H M; Inamdar, S R; Wari, M N
2016-02-05
The absorption and fluorescence spectra of laser dyes: coumarin 504T (C504T) and coumarin 521T (C521T) have been recorded at room temperature in a series of non-polar and polar solvents. The spectra of these dyes showed bathochromic shift with increasing in solvent polarity indicating the involvement of π→π⁎ transition. Kamlet-Taft and Catalan solvent parameters were used to analyze the effect of solvents on C504T and C521T molecules. The study reveals that both general solute-solvent interactions and specific interactions are operative in these two systems. The ground state dipole moment was estimated using Guggenheim's method and also by quantum mechanical calculations. The solvatochromic data were used to determine the excited state dipole moment (μ(e)). It is observed that dipole moment value of excited state (μ(e)) is higher than that of the ground state in both the laser dyes indicating that these dyes are more polar in nature in the excited state than in the ground state. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Norgrove, Lindsey; Hauser, Stefan
2015-03-01
In the Congo Basin, smallholder farmers practice slash-and-burn shifting cultivation. Yet, deliberate burning might no longer be sustainable under reduced fallow scenarios. We synthesized data from the Forest Margins Benchmark Area (FMBA), comprising 1.54 million hectares (ha), in southern Cameroon and assessed the impact of fire exclusion on yield, labor inputs, soil fertility, ecosystem carbon stocks, and fallow recovery indicators in two common field types (plantain and maize) under both current and reduced fallow scenarios. While we could not distinguish between impacts of standard farmer burning practice and fire exclusion treatments for the current fallow scenario, we concluded that fire exclusion would lead to higher yields, higher ecosystem carbon stocks as well as potentially faster fallow recovery under the reduced fallow scenario. While its implementation would increase labor requirements, we estimated increased revenues of 421 and 388 US ha-1 for plantain and maize, respectively. Applied to the FMBA, and assuming a 6-year reduced fallow scenario, fire exclusion in plantain fields would potentially retain 240,464 Mg more ecosystem carbon, comprising topsoil carbon plus tree biomass carbon, than standard farmer practice. Results demonstrate a potential "win-win scenario" where yield benefits, albeit modest, and conservation benefits can be obtained simultaneously. This could be considered as a transitional phase towards higher input use and thus higher yielding systems.
Guérin, Charles-Antoine; Grilli, Stéphan T.
2018-01-01
We present a new method for inverting ocean surface currents from beam-forming HF radar data. In contrast with the classical method, which inverts radial currents based on shifts of the main Bragg line in the radar Doppler spectrum, the method works in the temporal domain and inverts currents from the amplitude modulation of the I and Q radar time series. Based on this principle, we propose a Maximum Likelihood approach, which can be combined with a Bayesian inference method assuming a prior current distribution, to infer values of the radial surface currents. We assess the method performance by using synthetic radar signal as well as field data, and systematically comparing results with those of the Doppler method. The new method is found advantageous for its robustness to noise at long range, its ability to accommodate shorter time series, and the possibility to use a priori information to improve the estimates. Limitations are related to current sign errors at far-ranges and biased estimates for small current values and very short samples. We apply the new technique to a data set from a typical 13.5 MHz WERA radar, acquired off of Vancouver Island, BC, and show that it can potentially improve standard synoptic current mapping.
Nonlinear estimation of ring-down time for a Fabry-Perot optical cavity.
Kallapur, Abhijit G; Boyson, Toby K; Petersen, Ian R; Harb, Charles C
2011-03-28
This paper discusses the application of a discrete-time extended Kalman filter (EKF) to the problem of estimating the decay time constant for a Fabry-Perot optical cavity for cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS). The data for the estimation process is obtained from a CRDS experimental setup in terms of the light intensity at the output of the cavity. The cavity is held in lock with the input laser frequency by controlling the distance between the mirrors within the cavity by means of a proportional-integral (PI) controller. The cavity is purged with nitrogen and placed under vacuum before chopping the incident light at 25 KHz and recording the light intensity at its output. In spite of beginning the EKF estimation process with uncertainties in the initial value for the decay time constant, its estimates converge well within a small neighborhood of the expected value for the decay time constant of the cavity within a few ring-down cycles. Also, the EKF estimation results for the decay time constant are compared to those obtained using the Levenberg-Marquardt estimation scheme.
ESTIMATING RELIABILITY OF DISTURBANCES IN SATELLITE TIME SERIES DATA BASED ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Z.-G. Zhou
2016-06-01
Full Text Available Normally, the status of land cover is inherently dynamic and changing continuously on temporal scale. However, disturbances or abnormal changes of land cover — caused by such as forest fire, flood, deforestation, and plant diseases — occur worldwide at unknown times and locations. Timely detection and characterization of these disturbances is of importance for land cover monitoring. Recently, many time-series-analysis methods have been developed for near real-time or online disturbance detection, using satellite image time series. However, the detection results were only labelled with “Change/ No change” by most of the present methods, while few methods focus on estimating reliability (or confidence level of the detected disturbances in image time series. To this end, this paper propose a statistical analysis method for estimating reliability of disturbances in new available remote sensing image time series, through analysis of full temporal information laid in time series data. The method consists of three main steps. (1 Segmenting and modelling of historical time series data based on Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST. (2 Forecasting and detecting disturbances in new time series data. (3 Estimating reliability of each detected disturbance using statistical analysis based on Confidence Interval (CI and Confidence Levels (CL. The method was validated by estimating reliability of disturbance regions caused by a recent severe flooding occurred around the border of Russia and China. Results demonstrated that the method can estimate reliability of disturbances detected in satellite image with estimation error less than 5% and overall accuracy up to 90%.
Vero, S E; Ibrahim, T G; Creamer, R E; Grant, J; Healy, M G; Henry, T; Kramers, G; Richards, K G; Fenton, O
2014-12-01
The true efficacy of a programme of agricultural mitigation measures within a catchment to improve water quality can be determined only after a certain hydrologic time lag period (subsequent to implementation) has elapsed. As the biophysical response to policy is not synchronous, accurate estimates of total time lag (unsaturated and saturated) become critical to manage the expectations of policy makers. The estimation of the vertical unsaturated zone component of time lag is vital as it indicates early trends (initial breakthrough), bulk (centre of mass) and total (Exit) travel times. Typically, estimation of time lag through the unsaturated zone is poor, due to the lack of site specific soil physical data, or by assuming saturated conditions. Numerical models (e.g. Hydrus 1D) enable estimates of time lag with varied levels of input data. The current study examines the consequences of varied soil hydraulic and meteorological complexity on unsaturated zone time lag estimates using simulated and actual soil profiles. Results indicated that: greater temporal resolution (from daily to hourly) of meteorological data was more critical as the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil decreased; high clay content soils failed to converge reflecting prevalence of lateral component as a contaminant pathway; elucidation of soil hydraulic properties was influenced by the complexity of soil physical data employed (textural menu, ROSETTA, full and partial soil water characteristic curves), which consequently affected time lag ranges; as the importance of the unsaturated zone increases with respect to total travel times the requirements for high complexity/resolution input data become greater. The methodology presented herein demonstrates that decisions made regarding input data and landscape position will have consequences for the estimated range of vertical travel times. Insufficiencies or inaccuracies regarding such input data can therefore mislead policy makers regarding
Polynomial Phase Estimation Based on Adaptive Short-Time Fourier Transform.
Jing, Fulong; Zhang, Chunjie; Si, Weijian; Wang, Yu; Jiao, Shuhong
2018-02-13
Polynomial phase signals (PPSs) have numerous applications in many fields including radar, sonar, geophysics, and radio communication systems. Therefore, estimation of PPS coefficients is very important. In this paper, a novel approach for PPS parameters estimation based on adaptive short-time Fourier transform (ASTFT), called the PPS-ASTFT estimator, is proposed. Using the PPS-ASTFT estimator, both one-dimensional and multi-dimensional searches and error propagation problems, which widely exist in PPSs field, are avoided. In the proposed algorithm, the instantaneous frequency (IF) is estimated by S-transform (ST), which can preserve information on signal phase and provide a variable resolution similar to the wavelet transform (WT). The width of the ASTFT analysis window is equal to the local stationary length, which is measured by the instantaneous frequency gradient (IFG). The IFG is calculated by the principal component analysis (PCA), which is robust to the noise. Moreover, to improve estimation accuracy, a refinement strategy is presented to estimate signal parameters. Since the PPS-ASTFT avoids parameter search, the proposed algorithm can be computed in a reasonable amount of time. The estimation performance, computational cost, and implementation of the PPS-ASTFT are also analyzed. The conducted numerical simulations support our theoretical results and demonstrate an excellent statistical performance of the proposed algorithm.
Exploratory Study for Continuous-time Parameter Estimation of Ankle Dynamics
Kukreja, Sunil L.; Boyle, Richard D.
2014-01-01
Recently, a parallel pathway model to describe ankle dynamics was proposed. This model provides a relationship between ankle angle and net ankle torque as the sum of a linear and nonlinear contribution. A technique to identify parameters of this model in discrete-time has been developed. However, these parameters are a nonlinear combination of the continuous-time physiology, making insight into the underlying physiology impossible. The stable and accurate estimation of continuous-time parameters is critical for accurate disease modeling, clinical diagnosis, robotic control strategies, development of optimal exercise protocols for longterm space exploration, sports medicine, etc. This paper explores the development of a system identification technique to estimate the continuous-time parameters of ankle dynamics. The effectiveness of this approach is assessed via simulation of a continuous-time model of ankle dynamics with typical parameters found in clinical studies. The results show that although this technique improves estimates, it does not provide robust estimates of continuous-time parameters of ankle dynamics. Due to this we conclude that alternative modeling strategies and more advanced estimation techniques be considered for future work.
The effects of resonances on time delay estimation for water leak detection in plastic pipes
Almeida, Fabrício C. L.; Brennan, Michael J.; Joseph, Phillip F.; Gao, Yan; Paschoalini, Amarildo T.
2018-04-01
In the use of acoustic correlation methods for water leak detection, sensors are placed at pipe access points either side of a suspected leak, and the peak in the cross-correlation function of the measured signals gives the time difference (delay) between the arrival times of the leak noise at the sensors. Combining this information with the speed at which the leak noise propagates along the pipe, gives an estimate for the location of the leak with respect to one of the measurement positions. It is possible for the structural dynamics of the pipe system to corrupt the time delay estimate, which results in the leak being incorrectly located. In this paper, data from test-rigs in the United Kingdom and Canada are used to demonstrate this phenomenon, and analytical models of resonators are coupled with a pipe model to replicate the experimental results. The model is then used to investigate which of the two commonly used correlation algorithms, the Basic Cross-Correlation (BCC) function or the Phase Transform (PHAT), is more robust to the undesirable structural dynamics of the pipe system. It is found that time delay estimation is highly sensitive to the frequency bandwidth over which the analysis is conducted. Moreover, it is found that the PHAT is particularly sensitive to the presence of resonances and can give an incorrect time delay estimate, whereas the BCC function is found to be much more robust, giving a consistently accurate time delay estimate for a range of dynamic conditions.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zeng, L., E-mail: zeng@fusion.gat.com; Doyle, E. J.; Rhodes, T. L.; Wang, G.; Sung, C.; Peebles, W. A. [Physics and Astronomy Department, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095 (United States); Bobrek, M. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6006 (United States)
2016-11-15
A new model-based technique for fast estimation of the pedestal electron density gradient has been developed. The technique uses ordinary mode polarization profile reflectometer time delay data and does not require direct profile inversion. Because of its simple data processing, the technique can be readily implemented via a Field-Programmable Gate Array, so as to provide a real-time density gradient estimate, suitable for use in plasma control systems such as envisioned for ITER, and possibly for DIII-D and Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak. The method is based on a simple edge plasma model with a linear pedestal density gradient and low scrape-off-layer density. By measuring reflectometer time delays for three adjacent frequencies, the pedestal density gradient can be estimated analytically via the new approach. Using existing DIII-D profile reflectometer data, the estimated density gradients obtained from the new technique are found to be in good agreement with the actual density gradients for a number of dynamic DIII-D plasma conditions.
Nonparametric Estimation of Interval Reliability for Discrete-Time Semi-Markov Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Georgiadis, Stylianos; Limnios, Nikolaos
2016-01-01
In this article, we consider a repairable discrete-time semi-Markov system with finite state space. The measure of the interval reliability is given as the probability of the system being operational over a given finite-length time interval. A nonparametric estimator is proposed for the interval...
Taatgen, Niels A.; van Rijn, Hedderik; Anderson, John
2007-01-01
A theory of prospective time perception is introduced and incorporated as a module in an integrated theory of cognition, thereby extending existing theories and allowing predictions about attention and learning. First, a time perception module is established by fitting existing datasets (interval estimation and bisection and impact of secondary…
Impact of time displaced precipitation estimates for on-line updated models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Borup, Morten; Grum, Morten; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen
2012-01-01
When an online runoff model is updated from system measurements the requirements to the precipitation estimates change. Using rain gauge data as precipitation input there will be a displacement between the time where the rain intensity hits the gauge and the time where the rain hits the actual...
Estimating the Probability of a Rare Event Over a Finite Time Horizon
de Boer, Pieter-Tjerk; L'Ecuyer, Pierre; Rubino, Gerardo; Tuffin, Bruno
2007-01-01
We study an approximation for the zero-variance change of measure to estimate the probability of a rare event in a continuous-time Markov chain. The rare event occurs when the chain reaches a given set of states before some fixed time limit. The jump rates of the chain are expressed as functions of
A Sandwich-Type Standard Error Estimator of SEM Models with Multivariate Time Series
Zhang, Guangjian; Chow, Sy-Miin; Ong, Anthony D.
2011-01-01
Structural equation models are increasingly used as a modeling tool for multivariate time series data in the social and behavioral sciences. Standard error estimators of SEM models, originally developed for independent data, require modifications to accommodate the fact that time series data are inherently dependent. In this article, we extend a…
Estimating primary production from oxygen time series: A novel approach in the frequency domain
Cox, T.J.S.; Maris, T.; Soetaert, K.; Kromkamp, J.C.; Meire, P.; Meysman, F.J.R.
2015-01-01
Based on an analysis in the frequency domain of the governing equation of oxygen dynamics in aquatic systems, we derive a new method for estimating gross primary production (GPP) from oxygen time series. The central result of this article is a relation between time averaged GPP and the amplitude of
Nonparametric estimation in an "illness-death" model when all transition times are interval censored
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Frydman, Halina; Gerds, Thomas; Grøn, Randi
2013-01-01
We develop nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation for the parameters of an irreversible Markov chain on states {0,1,2} from the observations with interval censored times of 0 → 1, 0 → 2 and 1 → 2 transitions. The distinguishing aspect of the data is that, in addition to all transition times ...
Maximum Likelihood Time-of-Arrival Estimation of Optical Pulses via Photon-Counting Photodetectors
Erkmen, Baris I.; Moision, Bruce E.
2010-01-01
Many optical imaging, ranging, and communications systems rely on the estimation of the arrival time of an optical pulse. Recently, such systems have been increasingly employing photon-counting photodetector technology, which changes the statistics of the observed photocurrent. This requires time-of-arrival estimators to be developed and their performances characterized. The statistics of the output of an ideal photodetector, which are well modeled as a Poisson point process, were considered. An analytical model was developed for the mean-square error of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, demonstrating two phenomena that cause deviations from the minimum achievable error at low signal power. An approximation was derived to the threshold at which the ML estimator essentially fails to provide better than a random guess of the pulse arrival time. Comparing the analytic model performance predictions to those obtained via simulations, it was verified that the model accurately predicts the ML performance over all regimes considered. There is little prior art that attempts to understand the fundamental limitations to time-of-arrival estimation from Poisson statistics. This work establishes both a simple mathematical description of the error behavior, and the associated physical processes that yield this behavior. Previous work on mean-square error characterization for ML estimators has predominantly focused on additive Gaussian noise. This work demonstrates that the discrete nature of the Poisson noise process leads to a distinctly different error behavior.
Mesospheric temperature estimation from meteor decay times of weak and strong meteor trails
Kim, Jeong-Han; Kim, Yong Ha; Jee, Geonhwa; Lee, Changsup
2012-11-01
Neutral temperatures near the mesopause region were estimated from the decay times of the meteor echoes observed by a VHF meteor radar during a period covering 2007 to 2009 at King Sejong Station (62.22°S, 58.78°W), Antarctica. While some previous studies have used all meteor echoes to determine the slope from a height profile of log inverse decay times for temperature estimation, we have divided meteor echoes into weak and strong groups of underdense meteor trails, depending on the strength of estimated relative electron line densities within meteor trails. We found that the slopes from the strong group are inappropriate for temperature estimation because the decay times of strong meteors are considerably scattered, whereas the slopes from the weak group clearly define the variation of decay times with height. We thus utilize the slopes only from the weak group in the altitude region between 86 km and 96 km to estimate mesospheric temperatures. The meteor estimated temperatures show a typical seasonal variation near the mesopause region and the monthly mean temperatures are in good agreement with SABER temperatures within a mean difference of 4.8 K throughout the year. The meteor temperatures, representing typically the region around the altitude of 91 km, are lower on average by 2.1 K than simultaneously measured SATI OH(6-2) rotational temperatures during winter (March-October).
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Il Young Song
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This paper focuses on estimation of a nonlinear function of state vector (NFS in discrete-time linear systems with time-delays and model uncertainties. The NFS represents a multivariate nonlinear function of state variables, which can indicate useful information of a target system for control. The optimal nonlinear estimator of an NFS (in mean square sense represents a function of the receding horizon estimate and its error covariance. The proposed receding horizon filter represents the standard Kalman filter with time-delays and special initial horizon conditions described by the Lyapunov-like equations. In general case to calculate an optimal estimator of an NFS we propose using the unscented transformation. Important class of polynomial NFS is considered in detail. In the case of polynomial NFS an optimal estimator has a closed-form computational procedure. The subsequent application of the proposed receding horizon filter and nonlinear estimator to a linear stochastic system with time-delays and uncertainties demonstrates their effectiveness.
An Embedded Device for Real-Time Noninvasive Intracranial Pressure Estimation.
Matthews, Jonathan M; Fanelli, Andrea; Heldt, Thomas
2018-01-01
The monitoring of intracranial pressure (ICP) is indicated for diagnosing and guiding therapy in many neurological conditions. Current monitoring methods, however, are highly invasive, limiting their use to the most critically ill patients only. Our goal is to develop and test an embedded device that performs all necessary mathematical operations in real-time for noninvasive ICP (nICP) estimation based on a previously developed model-based approach that uses cerebral blood flow velocity (CBFV) and arterial blood pressure (ABP) waveforms. The nICP estimation algorithm along with the required preprocessing steps were implemented on an NXP LPC4337 microcontroller unit (MCU). A prototype device using the MCU was also developed, complete with display, recording functionality, and peripheral interfaces for ABP and CBFV monitoring hardware. The device produces an estimate of mean ICP once per minute and performs the necessary computations in 410 ms, on average. Real-time nICP estimates differed from the original batch-mode MATLAB implementation of theestimation algorithm by 0.63 mmHg (root-mean-square error). We have demonstrated that real-time nICP estimation is possible on a microprocessor platform, which offers the advantages of low cost, small size, and product modularity over a general-purpose computer. These attributes take a step toward the goal of real-time nICP estimation at the patient's bedside in a variety of clinical settings.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barnett, C.S.
1991-01-01
The Double Contingency Principle (DCP) is widely applied to criticality safety practice in the United States. Most practitioners base their application of the principle on qualitative, intuitive assessments. The recent trend toward probabilistic safety assessments provides a motive to search for a quantitative, probabilistic foundation for the DCP. A Markov model is tractable and leads to relatively simple results. The model yields estimates of mean time to simultaneous collapse of two contingencies as a function of estimates of mean failure times and mean recovery times of two independent contingencies. The model is a tool that can be used to supplement the qualitative methods now used to assess effectiveness of the DCP. (Author)
Estimation of Nuclei Cooling Time by Electrons in Superdense Nonequilibrium Plasma
Kostenko, B F
2004-01-01
Estimations of nuclei cooling time by electrons in superdense nonequilibrium plasma formed at cavitation bubble collapse in deuterated acetone have been carried out. The necessity of these computations was stipulated by using in the latest theoretical calculations of nuclear reaction rate in these processes one poorly grounded assumption that electron temperatures remain essentially lower than nuclei ones during thermonuclear synthesis time t_s. The estimations have shown that the initial electron temperatures at the moment of superdense plasma formation with \\rho =100 g/cm^3 turn out to be appreciably lower than the nuclear temperatures, while the nuclei cooling time is of the same order as t_s.
DeepTravel: a Neural Network Based Travel Time Estimation Model with Auxiliary Supervision
Zhang, Hanyuan; Wu, Hao; Sun, Weiwei; Zheng, Baihua
2018-01-01
Estimating the travel time of a path is of great importance to smart urban mobility. Existing approaches are either based on estimating the time cost of each road segment which are not able to capture many cross-segment complex factors, or designed heuristically in a non-learning-based way which fail to utilize the existing abundant temporal labels of the data, i.e., the time stamp of each trajectory point. In this paper, we leverage on new development of deep neural networks and propose a no...
Autoregressive-model-based missing value estimation for DNA microarray time series data.
Choong, Miew Keen; Charbit, Maurice; Yan, Hong
2009-01-01
Missing value estimation is important in DNA microarray data analysis. A number of algorithms have been developed to solve this problem, but they have several limitations. Most existing algorithms are not able to deal with the situation where a particular time point (column) of the data is missing entirely. In this paper, we present an autoregressive-model-based missing value estimation method (ARLSimpute) that takes into account the dynamic property of microarray temporal data and the local similarity structures in the data. ARLSimpute is especially effective for the situation where a particular time point contains many missing values or where the entire time point is missing. Experiment results suggest that our proposed algorithm is an accurate missing value estimator in comparison with other imputation methods on simulated as well as real microarray time series datasets.
Influence of hypo- and hyperthermia on death time estimation - A simulation study.
Muggenthaler, H; Hubig, M; Schenkl, S; Mall, G
2017-09-01
Numerous physiological and pathological mechanisms can cause elevated or lowered body core temperatures. Deviations from the physiological level of about 37°C can influence temperature based death time estimations. However, it has not been investigated by means of thermodynamics, to which extent hypo- and hyperthermia bias death time estimates. Using numerical simulation, the present study investigates the errors inherent in temperature based death time estimation in case of elevated or lowered body core temperatures before death. The most considerable errors with regard to the normothermic model occur in the first few hours post-mortem. With decreasing body core temperature and increasing post-mortem time the error diminishes and stagnates at a nearly constant level. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
A Fuzzy Logic-Based Approach for Estimation of Dwelling Times of Panama Metro Stations
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Aranzazu Berbey Alvarez
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Passenger flow modeling and station dwelling time estimation are significant elements for railway mass transit planning, but system operators usually have limited information to model the passenger flow. In this paper, an artificial-intelligence technique known as fuzzy logic is applied for the estimation of the elements of the origin-destination matrix and the dwelling time of stations in a railway transport system. The fuzzy inference engine used in the algorithm is based in the principle of maximum entropy. The approach considers passengers’ preferences to assign a level of congestion in each car of the train in function of the properties of the station platforms. This approach is implemented to estimate the passenger flow and dwelling times of the recently opened Line 1 of the Panama Metro. The dwelling times obtained from the simulation are compared to real measurements to validate the approach.
Omer, Muhammad
2012-07-01
This paper presents a new method of time delay estimation (TDE) using low sample rates of an impulsive acoustic source in a room environment. The proposed method finds the time delay from the room impulse response (RIR) which makes it robust against room reverberations. The RIR is considered a sparse phenomenon and a recently proposed sparse signal reconstruction technique called orthogonal clustering (OC) is utilized for its estimation from the low rate sampled received signal. The arrival time of the direct path signal at a pair of microphones is identified from the estimated RIR and their difference yields the desired time delay. Low sampling rates reduce the hardware and computational complexity and decrease the communication between the microphones and the centralized location. The performance of the proposed technique is demonstrated by numerical simulations and experimental results. © 2012 IEEE.
Marković, D.; Koch, M.
2005-09-01
The influence of the periodic signals in time series on the Hurst parameter estimate is investigated with temporal, spectral and time-scale methods. The Hurst parameter estimates of the simulated periodic time series with a white noise background show a high sensitivity on the signal to noise ratio and for some methods, also on the data length used. The analysis is then carried on to the investigation of extreme monthly river flows of the Elbe River (Dresden) and of the Rhine River (Kaub). Effects of removing the periodic components employing different filtering approaches are discussed and it is shown that such procedures are a prerequisite for an unbiased estimation of H. In summary, our results imply that the first step in a time series long-correlation study should be the separation of the deterministic components from the stochastic ones. Otherwise wrong conclusions concerning possible memory effects may be drawn.
Ingram, Jenni
2014-01-01
This article examines the shifts in attention and focus as one teacher introduces and explains an image that represents the processes involved in a numeric problem that his students have been working on. This paper takes a micro-analytic approach to examine how the focus of attention shifts through what the teacher and students do and say in the…
Liorzou, Mathilde; Pernet, Alix; Li, Shubin; Chastellier, Annie; Thouroude, Tatiana; Michel, Gilles; Malécot, Valéry; Gaillard, Sylvain; Briée, Céline; Foucher, Fabrice; Oghina-Pavie, Cristiana; Clotault, Jérémy; Grapin, Agnès
2016-08-01
Hybridization with introduced genetic resources is commonly practiced in ornamental plant breeding to introgress desired traits. The 19th century was a golden age for rose breeding in France. The objective here was to study the evolution of rose genetic diversity over this period, which included the introduction of Asian genotypes into Europe. A large sample of 1228 garden roses encompassing the conserved diversity cultivated during the 18th and 19th centuries was genotyped with 32 microsatellite primer pairs. Its genetic diversity and structure were clarified. Wide diversity structured in 16 genetic groups was observed. Genetic differentiation was detected between ancient European and Asian accessions, and a temporal shift from a European to an Asian genetic background was observed in cultivated European hybrids during the 19th century. Frequent crosses with Asian roses throughout the 19th century and/or selection for Asiatic traits may have induced this shift. In addition, the consistency of the results with respect to a horticultural classification is discussed. Some horticultural groups, defined according to phenotype and/or knowledge of their pedigree, seem to be genetically more consistent than others, highlighting the difficulty of classifying cultivated plants. Therefore, the horticultural classification is probably more appropriate for commercial purposes rather than genetic relatedness, especially to define preservation and breeding strategies. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology.
An Efficient Code-Timing Estimator for DS-CDMA Systems over Resolvable Multipath Channels
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Jian Li
2005-04-01
Full Text Available We consider the problem of training-based code-timing estimation for the asynchronous direct-sequence code-division multiple-access (DS-CDMA system. We propose a modified large-sample maximum-likelihood (MLSML estimator that can be used for the code-timing estimation for the DS-CDMA systems over the resolvable multipath channels in closed form. Simulation results show that MLSML can be used to provide a high correct acquisition probability and a high estimation accuracy. Simulation results also show that MLSML can have very good near-far resistant capability due to employing a data model similar to that for adaptive array processing where strong interferences can be suppressed.
Simultaneous Robust Fault and State Estimation for Linear Discrete-Time Uncertain Systems
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Feten Gannouni
2017-01-01
Full Text Available We consider the problem of robust simultaneous fault and state estimation for linear uncertain discrete-time systems with unknown faults which affect both the state and the observation matrices. Using transformation of the original system, a new robust proportional integral filter (RPIF having an error variance with an optimized guaranteed upper bound for any allowed uncertainty is proposed to improve robust estimation of unknown time-varying faults and to improve robustness against uncertainties. In this study, the minimization problem of the upper bound of the estimation error variance is formulated as a convex optimization problem subject to linear matrix inequalities (LMI for all admissible uncertainties. The proportional and the integral gains are optimally chosen by solving the convex optimization problem. Simulation results are given in order to illustrate the performance of the proposed filter, in particular to solve the problem of joint fault and state estimation.
Own-wage labor supply elasticities: variation across time and estimation methods
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Olivier Bargain
2016-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract There is a huge variation in the size of labor supply elasticities in the literature, which hampers policy analysis. While recent studies show that preference heterogeneity across countries explains little of this variation, we focus on two other important features: observation period and estimation method. We start with a thorough survey of existing evidence for both Western Europe and the USA, over a long period and from different empirical approaches. Then, our meta-analysis attempts to disentangle the role of time changes and estimation methods. We highlight the key role of time changes, documenting the incredible fall in labor supply elasticities since the 1980s not only for the USA but also in the EU. In contrast, we find no compelling evidence that the choice of estimation method explains variation in elasticity estimates. From our analysis, we derive important guidelines for policy simulations.
H∞ state estimation of stochastic memristor-based neural networks with time-varying delays.
Bao, Haibo; Cao, Jinde; Kurths, Jürgen; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Ahmad, Bashir
2018-03-01
This paper addresses the problem of H ∞ state estimation for a class of stochastic memristor-based neural networks with time-varying delays. Under the framework of Filippov solution, the stochastic memristor-based neural networks are transformed into systems with interval parameters. The present paper is the first to investigate the H ∞ state estimation problem for continuous-time Itô-type stochastic memristor-based neural networks. By means of Lyapunov functionals and some stochastic technique, sufficient conditions are derived to ensure that the estimation error system is asymptotically stable in the mean square with a prescribed H ∞ performance. An explicit expression of the state estimator gain is given in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Compared with other results, our results reduce control gain and control cost effectively. Finally, numerical simulations are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of the theoretical results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Remaining Useful Life Estimation using Time Trajectory Tracking and Support Vector Machines
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Galar, D; Kumar, U; Lee, J; Zhao, W
2012-01-01
In this paper, a novel RUL prediction method inspired by feature maps and SVM classifiers is proposed. The historical instances of a system with life-time condition data are used to create a classification by SVM hyper planes. For a test instance of the same system, whose RUL is to be estimated, degradation speed is evaluated by computing the minimal distance defined based on the degradation trajectories, i.e. the approach of the system to the hyper plane that segregates good and bad condition data at different time horizon. Therefore, the final RUL of a specific component can be estimated and global RUL information can then be obtained by aggregating the multiple RUL estimations using a density estimation method.
Estimating the time evolution of NMR systems via a quantum-speed-limit-like expression
Villamizar, D. V.; Duzzioni, E. I.; Leal, A. C. S.; Auccaise, R.
2018-05-01
Finding the solutions of the equations that describe the dynamics of a given physical system is crucial in order to obtain important information about its evolution. However, by using estimation theory, it is possible to obtain, under certain limitations, some information on its dynamics. The quantum-speed-limit (QSL) theory was originally used to estimate the shortest time in which a Hamiltonian drives an initial state to a final one for a given fidelity. Using the QSL theory in a slightly different way, we are able to estimate the running time of a given quantum process. For that purpose, we impose the saturation of the Anandan-Aharonov bound in a rotating frame of reference where the state of the system travels slower than in the original frame (laboratory frame). Through this procedure it is possible to estimate the actual evolution time in the laboratory frame of reference with good accuracy when compared to previous methods. Our method is tested successfully to predict the time spent in the evolution of nuclear spins 1/2 and 3/2 in NMR systems. We find that the estimated time according to our method is better than previous approaches by up to four orders of magnitude. One disadvantage of our method is that we need to solve a number of transcendental equations, which increases with the system dimension and parameter discretization used to solve such equations numerically.
Offline estimation of decay time for an optical cavity with a low pass filter cavity model.
Kallapur, Abhijit G; Boyson, Toby K; Petersen, Ian R; Harb, Charles C
2012-08-01
This Letter presents offline estimation results for the decay-time constant for an experimental Fabry-Perot optical cavity for cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS). The cavity dynamics are modeled in terms of a low pass filter (LPF) with unity DC gain. This model is used by an extended Kalman filter (EKF) along with the recorded light intensity at the output of the cavity in order to estimate the decay-time constant. The estimation results using the LPF cavity model are compared to those obtained using the quadrature model for the cavity presented in previous work by Kallapur et al. The estimation process derived using the LPF model comprises two states as opposed to three states in the quadrature model. When considering the EKF, this means propagating two states and a (2×2) covariance matrix using the LPF model, as opposed to propagating three states and a (3×3) covariance matrix using the quadrature model. This gives the former model a computational advantage over the latter and leads to faster execution times for the corresponding EKF. It is shown in this Letter that the LPF model for the cavity with two filter states is computationally more efficient, converges faster, and is hence a more suitable method than the three-state quadrature model presented in previous work for real-time estimation of the decay-time constant for the cavity.
Optimal replacement time estimation for machines and equipment based on cost function
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J. Šebo
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The article deals with a multidisciplinary issue of estimating the optimal replacement time for the machines. Considered categories of machines, for which the optimization method is usable, are of the metallurgical and engineering production. Different models of cost function are considered (both with one and two variables. Parameters of the models were calculated through the least squares method. Models testing show that all are good enough, so for estimation of optimal replacement time is sufficient to use simpler models. In addition to the testing of models we developed the method (tested on selected simple model which enable us in actual real time (with limited data set to indicate the optimal replacement time. The indicated time moment is close enough to the optimal replacement time t*.
Estimation and Properties of a Time-Varying GQARCH(1,1-M Model
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Sofia Anyfantaki
2011-01-01
analysis of these models computationally infeasible. This paper outlines the issues and suggests to employ a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm which allows the calculation of a classical estimator via the simulated EM algorithm or a simulated Bayesian solution in only ( computational operations, where is the sample size. Furthermore, the theoretical dynamic properties of a time-varying GQARCH(1,1-M are derived. We discuss them and apply the suggested Bayesian estimation to three major stock markets.
Estimating DSGE model parameters in a small open economy: Do real-time data matter?
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Capek Jan
2015-03-01
Full Text Available This paper investigates the differences between parameters estimated using real-time and those estimated with revised data. The models used are New Keynesian DSGE models of the Czech, Polish, Hungarian, Swiss, and Swedish small open economies in interaction with the euro area. The paper also offers an analysis of data revisions of GDP growth and inflation and trend revisions of interest rates.
Meng, Qing-Hao; Yang, Wei-Xing; Wang, Yang; Zeng, Ming
2011-01-01
This paper addresses the collective odor source localization (OSL) problem in a time-varying airflow environment using mobile robots. A novel OSL methodology which combines odor-source probability estimation and multiple robots’ search is proposed. The estimation phase consists of two steps: firstly, the separate probability-distribution map of odor source is estimated via Bayesian rules and fuzzy inference based on a single robot’s detection events; secondly, the separate maps estimated by different robots at different times are fused into a combined map by way of distance based superposition. The multi-robot search behaviors are coordinated via a particle swarm optimization algorithm, where the estimated odor-source probability distribution is used to express the fitness functions. In the process of OSL, the estimation phase provides the prior knowledge for the searching while the searching verifies the estimation results, and both phases are implemented iteratively. The results of simulations for large-scale advection–diffusion plume environments and experiments using real robots in an indoor airflow environment validate the feasibility and robustness of the proposed OSL method. PMID:22346650
Optimal State Estimation for Discrete-Time Markov Jump Systems with Missing Observations
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Qing Sun
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the optimal linear estimation for a class of direct-time Markov jump systems with missing observations. An observer-based approach of fault detection and isolation (FDI is investigated as a detection mechanic of fault case. For systems with known information, a conditional prediction of observations is applied and fault observations are replaced and isolated; then, an FDI linear minimum mean square error estimation (LMMSE can be developed by comprehensive utilizing of the correct information offered by systems. A recursive equation of filtering based on the geometric arguments can be obtained. Meanwhile, a stability of the state estimator will be guaranteed under appropriate assumption.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tonn, B.; Hwang, Ho-Ling; Elliot, S.; Peretz, J.; Bohm, R.; Hendrucko, B.
1994-04-01
This report contains descriptions of methodologies to be used to estimate the one-time generation of hazardous waste associated with five different types of remediation programs: Superfund sites, RCRA Corrective Actions, Federal Facilities, Underground Storage Tanks, and State and Private Programs. Estimates of the amount of hazardous wastes generated from these sources to be shipped off-site to commercial hazardous waste treatment and disposal facilities will be made on a state by state basis for the years 1993, 1999, and 2013. In most cases, estimates will be made for the intervening years, also
Online Estimation of Time-Varying Volatility Using a Continuous-Discrete LMS Algorithm
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Jacques Oksman
2008-09-01
Full Text Available The following paper addresses a problem of inference in financial engineering, namely, online time-varying volatility estimation. The proposed method is based on an adaptive predictor for the stock price, built from an implicit integration formula. An estimate for the current volatility value which minimizes the mean square prediction error is calculated recursively using an LMS algorithm. The method is then validated on several synthetic examples as well as on real data. Throughout the illustration, the proposed method is compared with both UKF and offline volatility estimation.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xu Chaoyang; Liu Junmin; Fan Yanfang; Ji Guohua
2008-01-01
Joint time-frequency analysis is conducted to construct one joint density function of time and frequency. It can open out one signal's frequency components and their evolvements. It is the new evolvement of Fourier analysis. In this paper, according to the characteristic of seismic signal's noise, one estimation method of seismic signal's first arrival based on triple correlation of joint time-frequency spectrum is introduced, and the results of experiment and conclusion are presented. (authors)
Time estimate (topening + tclosing) of shutter of an X-ray equipment using a digital chronometer
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Quaresma, D.S.; Oliveira, P.H.T.M.; Gallo, V.F.M.; Jordao, B.O.; Carvalho, R.J.; Cardoso, R.S.; Peixoto, J.G.P.
2014-01-01
In this work the measurement of time t opening + t closing opening and closing the shutter of Pantak HF160 X-ray equipment was performed. It is understood by the shutter device responsible for allowing or not the flow of X-rays that are produced by the X-ray tube through the orifice of a shield. To estimate the running time for a digital chronometer calibrated in the Time Service Division (DSHO) National Observatory (ON) was used. (author)
Nonlinear systems time-varying parameter estimation: Application to induction motors
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kenne, Godpromesse [Laboratoire d' Automatique et d' Informatique Appliquee (LAIA), Departement de Genie Electrique, IUT FOTSO Victor, Universite de Dschang, B.P. 134 Bandjoun (Cameroon); Ahmed-Ali, Tarek [Ecole Nationale Superieure des Ingenieurs des Etudes et Techniques d' Armement (ENSIETA), 2 Rue Francois Verny, 29806 Brest Cedex 9 (France); Lamnabhi-Lagarrigue, F. [Laboratoire des Signaux et Systemes (L2S), C.N.R.S-SUPELEC, Universite Paris XI, 3 Rue Joliot Curie, 91192 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Arzande, Amir [Departement Energie, Ecole Superieure d' Electricite-SUPELEC, 3 Rue Joliot Curie, 91192 Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
2008-11-15
In this paper, an algorithm for time-varying parameter estimation for a large class of nonlinear systems is presented. The proof of the convergence of the estimates to their true values is achieved using Lyapunov theories and does not require that the classical persistent excitation condition be satisfied by the input signal. Since the induction motor (IM) is widely used in several industrial sectors, the algorithm developed is potentially useful for adjusting the controller parameters of variable speed drives. The method proposed is simple and easily implementable in real-time. The application of this approach to on-line estimation of the rotor resistance of IM shows a rapidly converging estimate in spite of measurement noise, discretization effects, parameter uncertainties (e.g. inaccuracies on motor inductance values) and modeling inaccuracies. The robustness analysis for this IM application also revealed that the proposed scheme is insensitive to the stator resistance variations within a wide range. The merits of the proposed algorithm in the case of on-line time-varying rotor resistance estimation are demonstrated via experimental results in various operating conditions of the induction motor. The experimental results obtained demonstrate that the application of the proposed algorithm to update on-line the parameters of an adaptive controller (e.g. IM and synchronous machines adaptive control) can improve the efficiency of the industrial process. The other interesting features of the proposed method include fault detection/estimation and adaptive control of IM and synchronous machines. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Haiwen Li
2018-01-01
Full Text Available The estimation speed of positioning parameters determines the effectiveness of the positioning system. The time of arrival (TOA and direction of arrival (DOA parameters can be estimated by the space-time two-dimensional multiple signal classification (2D-MUSIC algorithm for array antenna. However, this algorithm needs much time to complete the two-dimensional pseudo spectral peak search, which makes it difficult to apply in practice. Aiming at solving this problem, a fast estimation method of space-time two-dimensional positioning parameters based on Hadamard product is proposed in orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM system, and the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB is also presented. Firstly, according to the channel frequency domain response vector of each array, the channel frequency domain estimation vector is constructed using the Hadamard product form containing location information. Then, the autocorrelation matrix of the channel response vector for the extended array element in frequency domain and the noise subspace are calculated successively. Finally, by combining the closed-form solution and parameter pairing, the fast joint estimation for time delay and arrival direction is accomplished. The theoretical analysis and simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can significantly reduce the computational complexity and guarantee that the estimation accuracy is not only better than estimating signal parameters via rotational invariance techniques (ESPRIT algorithm and 2D matrix pencil (MP algorithm but also close to 2D-MUSIC algorithm. Moreover, the proposed algorithm also has certain adaptability to multipath environment and effectively improves the ability of fast acquisition of location parameters.
Joint Symbol Timing and CFO Estimation for OFDM/OQAM Systems in Multipath Channels
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Petrella Angelo
2010-01-01
Full Text Available The problem of data-aided synchronization for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM systems based on offset quadrature amplitude modulation (OQAM in multipath channels is considered. In particular, the joint maximum-likelihood (ML estimator for carrier-frequency offset (CFO, amplitudes, phases, and delays, exploiting a short known preamble, is derived. The ML estimators for phases and amplitudes are in closed form. Moreover, under the assumption that the CFO is sufficiently small, a closed form approximate ML (AML CFO estimator is obtained. By exploiting the obtained closed form solutions a cost function whose peaks provide an estimate of the delays is derived. In particular, the symbol timing (i.e., the delay of the first multipath component is obtained by considering the smallest estimated delay. The performance of the proposed joint AML estimator is assessed via computer simulations and compared with that achieved by the joint AML estimator designed for AWGN channel and that achieved by a previously derived joint estimator for OFDM systems.
Caprio, M.; Lancieri, M.; Cua, G. B.; Zollo, A.; Wiemer, S.
2011-01-01
We present an evolutionary approach for magnitude estimation for earthquake early warning based on real-time inversion of displacement spectra. The Spectrum Inversion (SI) method estimates magnitude and its uncertainty by inferring the shape of the entire displacement spectral curve based on the part of the spectra constrained by available data. The method consists of two components: 1) estimating seismic moment by finding the low frequency plateau Ω0, the corner frequency fc and attenuation factor (Q) that best fit the observed displacement spectra assuming a Brune ω2 model, and 2) estimating magnitude and its uncertainty based on the estimate of seismic moment. A novel characteristic of this method is that is does not rely on empirically derived relationships, but rather involves direct estimation of quantities related to the moment magnitude. SI magnitude and uncertainty estimates are updated each second following the initial P detection. We tested the SI approach on broadband and strong motion waveforms data from 158 Southern California events, and 25 Japanese events for a combined magnitude range of 3 ≤ M ≤ 7. Based on the performance evaluated on this dataset, the SI approach can potentially provide stable estimates of magnitude within 10 seconds from the initial earthquake detection.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jin, Maolin; Chang, Pyung Hun
2009-01-01
This work presents two simple and robust techniques based on time delay estimation for the respective control and synchronization of chaos systems. First, one of these techniques is applied to the control of a chaotic Lorenz system with both matched and mismatched uncertainties. The nonlinearities in the Lorenz system is cancelled by time delay estimation and desired error dynamics is inserted. Second, the other technique is applied to the synchronization of the Lue system and the Lorenz system with uncertainties. The synchronization input consists of three elements that have transparent and clear meanings. Since time delay estimation enables a very effective and efficient cancellation of disturbances and nonlinearities, the techniques turn out to be simple and robust. Numerical simulation results show fast, accurate and robust performance of the proposed techniques, thereby demonstrating their effectiveness for the control and synchronization of Lorenz systems.
Estimates of Imaging Times for Conventional and Synchrotron X-Ray Sources
Kinney, J
2003-01-01
The following notes are to be taken as estimates of the time requirements for imaging NIF targets in three-dimensions with absorption contrast. The estimates ignore target geometry and detector inefficiency, and focus only on the statistical question of detecting compositional (structural) differences between adjacent volume elements in the presence of noise. The basic equations, from the classic reference by Grodzins, consider imaging times in terms of the required number of photons necessary to provide an image with given resolution and noise. The time estimates, therefore, have been based on the calculated x-ray fluxes from the proposed Advanced Light Source (ALS) imaging beamline, and from the calculated flux for a tungsten anode x-ray generator operated in a point focus mode.
An ELM-Based Approach for Estimating Train Dwell Time in Urban Rail Traffic
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Wen-jun Chu
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Dwell time estimation plays an important role in the operation of urban rail system. On this specific problem, a range of models based on either polynomial regression or microsimulation have been proposed. However, the generalization performance of polynomial regression models is limited and the accuracy of existing microsimulation models is unstable. In this paper, a new dwell time estimation model based on extreme learning machine (ELM is proposed. The underlying factors that may affect urban rail dwell time are analyzed first. Then, the relationships among different factors are extracted and modeled by ELM neural networks, on basis of which an overall estimation model is proposed. At last, a set of observed data from Beijing subway is used to illustrate the proposed method and verify its overall performance.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jung, Won Dae; Park, Jink Yun
2012-01-01
It is important to understand the amount of time required to execute an emergency procedural task in a high-stress situation for managing human performance under emergencies in a nuclear power plant. However, the time to execute an emergency procedural task is highly dependent upon expert judgment due to the lack of actual data. This paper proposes an analytical method to estimate the operator's performance time (OPT) of a procedural task, which is based on a measure of the task complexity (TACOM). The proposed method for estimating an OPT is an equation that uses the TACOM as a variable, and the OPT of a procedural task can be calculated if its relevant TACOM score is available. The validity of the proposed equation is demonstrated by comparing the estimated OPTs with the observed OPTs for emergency procedural tasks in a steam generator tube rupture scenario.
Real-time soft tissue motion estimation for lung tumors during radiotherapy delivery.
Rottmann, Joerg; Keall, Paul; Berbeco, Ross
2013-09-01
To provide real-time lung tumor motion estimation during radiotherapy treatment delivery without the need for implanted fiducial markers or additional imaging dose to the patient. 2D radiographs from the therapy beam's-eye-view (BEV) perspective are captured at a frame rate of 12.8 Hz with a frame grabber allowing direct RAM access to the image buffer. An in-house developed real-time soft tissue localization algorithm is utilized to calculate soft tissue displacement from these images in real-time. The system is tested with a Varian TX linear accelerator and an AS-1000 amorphous silicon electronic portal imaging device operating at a resolution of 512 × 384 pixels. The accuracy of the motion estimation is verified with a dynamic motion phantom. Clinical accuracy was tested on lung SBRT images acquired at 2 fps. Real-time lung tumor motion estimation from BEV images without fiducial markers is successfully demonstrated. For the phantom study, a mean tracking error real-time markerless lung tumor motion estimation from BEV images alone. The described system can operate at a frame rate of 12.8 Hz and does not require prior knowledge to establish traceable landmarks for tracking on the fly. The authors show that the geometric accuracy is similar to (or better than) previously published markerless algorithms not operating in real-time.
Methodology for estimation of time-dependent surface heat flux due to cryogen spray cooling.
Tunnell, James W; Torres, Jorge H; Anvari, Bahman
2002-01-01
Cryogen spray cooling (CSC) is an effective technique to protect the epidermis during cutaneous laser therapies. Spraying a cryogen onto the skin surface creates a time-varying heat flux, effectively cooling the skin during and following the cryogen spurt. In previous studies mathematical models were developed to predict the human skin temperature profiles during the cryogen spraying time. However, no studies have accounted for the additional cooling due to residual cryogen left on the skin surface following the spurt termination. We formulate and solve an inverse heat conduction (IHC) problem to predict the time-varying surface heat flux both during and following a cryogen spurt. The IHC formulation uses measured temperature profiles from within a medium to estimate the surface heat flux. We implement a one-dimensional sequential function specification method (SFSM) to estimate the surface heat flux from internal temperatures measured within an in vitro model in response to a cryogen spurt. Solution accuracy and experimental errors are examined using simulated temperature data. Heat flux following spurt termination appears substantial; however, it is less than that during the spraying time. The estimated time-varying heat flux can subsequently be used in forward heat conduction models to estimate temperature profiles in skin during and following a cryogen spurt and predict appropriate timing for onset of the laser pulse.
Noise level estimation in weakly nonlinear slowly time-varying systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aerts, J R M; Dirckx, J J J; Lataire, J; Pintelon, R
2008-01-01
Recently, a method using multisine excitation was proposed for estimating the frequency response, the nonlinear distortions and the disturbing noise of weakly nonlinear time-invariant systems. This method has been demonstrated on the measurement of nonlinear distortions in the vibration of acoustically driven systems such as a latex membrane, which is a good example of a time-invariant system [1]. However, not all systems are perfectly time invariant, e.g. biomechanical systems. This time variation can be misinterpreted as an elevated noise floor, and the classical noise estimation method gives a wrong result. Two improved methods to retrieve the correct noise information from the measurements are presented. Both of them make use of multisine excitations. First, it is demonstrated that the improved methods give the same result as the classical noise estimation method when applied to a time-invariant system (high-quality microphone membrane). Next, it is demonstrated that the new methods clearly give an improved estimate of the noise level on time-varying systems. As an application example results for the vibration response of an eardrum are shown
Estimating the effect of a rare time-dependent treatment on the recurrent event rate.
Smith, Abigail R; Zhu, Danting; Goodrich, Nathan P; Merion, Robert M; Schaubel, Douglas E
2018-05-30
In many observational studies, the objective is to estimate the effect of treatment or state-change on the recurrent event rate. If treatment is assigned after the start of follow-up, traditional methods (eg, adjustment for baseline-only covariates or fully conditional adjustment for time-dependent covariates) may give biased results. We propose a two-stage modeling approach using the method of sequential stratification to accurately estimate the effect of a time-dependent treatment on the recurrent event rate. At the first stage, we estimate the pretreatment recurrent event trajectory using a proportional rates model censored at the time of treatment. Prognostic scores are estimated from the linear predictor of this model and used to match treated patients to as yet untreated controls based on prognostic score at the time of treatment for the index patient. The final model is stratified on matched sets and compares the posttreatment recurrent event rate to the recurrent event rate of the matched controls. We demonstrate through simulation that bias due to dependent censoring is negligible, provided the treatment frequency is low, and we investigate a threshold at which correction for dependent censoring is needed. The method is applied to liver transplant (LT), where we estimate the effect of development of post-LT End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) on rate of days hospitalized. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Estimation of Bimodal Urban Link Travel Time Distribution and Its Applications in Traffic Analysis
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Yuxiong Ji
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Vehicles travelling on urban streets are heavily influenced by traffic signal controls, pedestrian crossings, and conflicting traffic from cross streets, which would result in bimodal travel time distributions, with one mode corresponding to travels without delays and the other travels with delays. A hierarchical Bayesian bimodal travel time model is proposed to capture the interrupted nature of urban traffic flows. The travel time distributions obtained from the proposed model are then considered to analyze traffic operations and estimate travel time distribution in real time. The advantage of the proposed bimodal model is demonstrated using empirical data, and the results are encouraging.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Faria, Sara S.; Morris, Carlos F.M.; Silva, Adriano R.
2017-01-01
shifting potential of modern targeted proteomics applied to cancer research can be demonstrated by the large number of advancements and increasing examples of new and more useful biomarkers found during the course of this review in different aspects of cancer research. Out of the many studies dedicated...... to cancer biomarker discovery, we were able to devise some clear trends, such as the fact that breast cancer is the most common type of tumor studied and that most of the research for any given type of cancer is focused on the discovery diagnostic biomarkers, with the exception of those that rely on samples...... applicable results have called for the implementation of more direct, hypothesis-based studies such as those made available through targeted approaches, that might be able to streamline biomarker discovery and validation as a means to increase survivability of affected patients. In fact, the paradigm...
Smith, Stephen A; Brown, Joseph W; Walker, Joseph F
2018-01-01
Phylogenomic datasets have been successfully used to address questions involving evolutionary relationships, patterns of genome structure, signatures of selection, and gene and genome duplications. However, despite the recent explosion in genomic and transcriptomic data, the utility of these data sources for efficient divergence-time inference remains unexamined. Phylogenomic datasets pose two distinct problems for divergence-time estimation: (i) the volume of data makes inference of the entire dataset intractable, and (ii) the extent of underlying topological and rate heterogeneity across genes makes model mis-specification a real concern. "Gene shopping", wherein a phylogenomic dataset is winnowed to a set of genes with desirable properties, represents an alternative approach that holds promise in alleviating these issues. We implemented an approach for phylogenomic datasets (available in SortaDate) that filters genes by three criteria: (i) clock-likeness, (ii) reasonable tree length (i.e., discernible information content), and (iii) least topological conflict with a focal species tree (presumed to have already been inferred). Such a winnowing procedure ensures that errors associated with model (both clock and topology) mis-specification are minimized, therefore reducing error in divergence-time estimation. We demonstrated the efficacy of this approach through simulation and applied it to published animal (Aves, Diplopoda, and Hymenoptera) and plant (carnivorous Caryophyllales, broad Caryophyllales, and Vitales) phylogenomic datasets. By quantifying rate heterogeneity across both genes and lineages we found that every empirical dataset examined included genes with clock-like, or nearly clock-like, behavior. Moreover, many datasets had genes that were clock-like, exhibited reasonable evolutionary rates, and were mostly compatible with the species tree. We identified overlap in age estimates when analyzing these filtered genes under strict clock and uncorrelated
Xie, Xiang-Peng; Yue, Dong; Park, Ju H
2018-02-01
The paper provides relaxed designs of fault estimation observer for nonlinear dynamical plants in the Takagi-Sugeno form. Compared with previous theoretical achievements, a modified version of fuzzy fault estimation observer is implemented with the aid of the so-called maximum-priority-based switching law. Given each activated switching status, the appropriate group of designed matrices can be provided so as to explore certain key properties of the considered plants by means of introducing a set of matrix-valued variables. Owing to the reason that more abundant information of the considered plants can be updated in due course and effectively exploited for each time instant, the conservatism of the obtained result is less than previous theoretical achievements and thus the main defect of those existing methods can be overcome to some extent in practice. Finally, comparative simulation studies on the classical nonlinear truck-trailer model are given to certify the benefits of the theoretic achievement which is obtained in our study. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Calculation of the time resolution of the J-PET tomograph using kernel density estimation
Raczyński, L.; Wiślicki, W.; Krzemień, W.; Kowalski, P.; Alfs, D.; Bednarski, T.; Białas, P.; Curceanu, C.; Czerwiński, E.; Dulski, K.; Gajos, A.; Głowacz, B.; Gorgol, M.; Hiesmayr, B.; Jasińska, B.; Kamińska, D.; Korcyl, G.; Kozik, T.; Krawczyk, N.; Kubicz, E.; Mohammed, M.; Pawlik-Niedźwiecka, M.; Niedźwiecki, S.; Pałka, M.; Rudy, Z.; Rundel, O.; Sharma, N. G.; Silarski, M.; Smyrski, J.; Strzelecki, A.; Wieczorek, A.; Zgardzińska, B.; Zieliński, M.; Moskal, P.
2017-06-01
In this paper we estimate the time resolution of the J-PET scanner built from plastic scintillators. We incorporate the method of signal processing using the Tikhonov regularization framework and the kernel density estimation method. We obtain simple, closed-form analytical formulae for time resolution. The proposed method is validated using signals registered by means of the single detection unit of the J-PET tomograph built from a 30 cm long plastic scintillator strip. It is shown that the experimental and theoretical results obtained for the J-PET scanner equipped with vacuum tube photomultipliers are consistent.
H∞ state estimation of generalised neural networks with interval time-varying delays
Saravanakumar, R.; Syed Ali, M.; Cao, Jinde; Huang, He
2016-12-01
This paper focuses on studying the H∞ state estimation of generalised neural networks with interval time-varying delays. The integral terms in the time derivative of the Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional are handled by the Jensen's inequality, reciprocally convex combination approach and a new Wirtinger-based double integral inequality. A delay-dependent criterion is derived under which the estimation error system is globally asymptotically stable with H∞ performance. The proposed conditions are represented by linear matrix inequalities. Optimal H∞ norm bounds are obtained easily by solving convex problems in terms of linear matrix inequalities. The advantage of employing the proposed inequalities is illustrated by numerical examples.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu Yurong; Wang Zidong; Liu Xiaohui
2008-01-01
In this Letter, we investigate the state estimation problem for a new class of discrete-time neural networks with Markovian jumping parameters as well as mode-dependent mixed time-delays. The parameters of the discrete-time neural networks are subject to the switching from one mode to another at different times according to a Markov chain, and the mixed time-delays consist of both discrete and distributed delays that are dependent on the Markovian jumping mode. New techniques are developed to deal with the mixed time-delays in the discrete-time setting, and a novel Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional is put forward to reflect the mode-dependent time-delays. Sufficient conditions are established in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) that guarantee the existence of the state estimators. We show that both the existence conditions and the explicit expression of the desired estimator can be characterized in terms of the solution to an LMI. A numerical example is exploited to show the usefulness of the derived LMI-based conditions
Kies, Alexander; Brown, Tom; Schlachtberger, David; Schramm, Stefan
2017-04-01
The supply-demand imbalance is a major concern in the presence of large shares of highly variable renewable generation from sources like wind and photovoltaics (PV) in power systems. Other than the measures on the generation side, such as flexible backup generation or energy storage, sector coupling or demand side management are the most likely option to counter imbalances, therefore to ease the integration of renewable generation. Demand side management usually refers to load shifting, which comprises the reaction of electricity consumers to price fluctuations. In this work, we derive a novel methodology to model the interplay of load shifting and provided incentives via real-time pricing in highly renewable power systems. We use weather data to simulate generation from the renewable sources of wind and photovoltaics, as well as historical load data, split into different consumption categories, such as, heating, cooling, domestic, etc., to model a simplified power system. Together with renewable power forecast data, a simple market model and approaches to incorporate sector coupling [1] and load shifting [2,3], we model the interplay of incentives and load shifting for different scenarios (e.g., in dependency of the risk-aversion of consumers or the forecast horizon) and demonstrate the practical benefits of load shifting. First, we introduce the novel methodology and compare it with existing approaches. Secondly, we show results of numerical simulations on the effects of load shifting: It supports the integration of PV power by providing a storage, which characteristics can be described as "daily" and provides a significant amount of balancing potential. Lastly, we propose an experimental setup to obtain empirical data on end-consumer load-shifting behaviour in response to price incentives. References [1] Brown, T., Schlachtberger, D., Kies. A., Greiner, M., Sector coupling in a highly renewable European energy system, Proc. of the 15th International Workshop on
Multifractals embedded in short time series: An unbiased estimation of probability moment
Qiu, Lu; Yang, Tianguang; Yin, Yanhua; Gu, Changgui; Yang, Huijie
2016-12-01
An exact estimation of probability moments is the base for several essential concepts, such as the multifractals, the Tsallis entropy, and the transfer entropy. By means of approximation theory we propose a new method called factorial-moment-based estimation of probability moments. Theoretical prediction and computational results show that it can provide us an unbiased estimation of the probability moments of continuous order. Calculations on probability redistribution model verify that it can extract exactly multifractal behaviors from several hundred recordings. Its powerfulness in monitoring evolution of scaling behaviors is exemplified by two empirical cases, i.e., the gait time series for fast, normal, and slow trials of a healthy volunteer, and the closing price series for Shanghai stock market. By using short time series with several hundred lengths, a comparison with the well-established tools displays significant advantages of its performance over the other methods. The factorial-moment-based estimation can evaluate correctly the scaling behaviors in a scale range about three generations wider than the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis and the basic estimation. The estimation of partition function given by the wavelet transform modulus maxima has unacceptable fluctuations. Besides the scaling invariance focused in the present paper, the proposed factorial moment of continuous order can find its various uses, such as finding nonextensive behaviors of a complex system and reconstructing the causality relationship network between elements of a complex system.
A Modularized Efficient Framework for Non-Markov Time Series Estimation
Schamberg, Gabriel; Ba, Demba; Coleman, Todd P.
2018-06-01
We present a compartmentalized approach to finding the maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimate of a latent time series that obeys a dynamic stochastic model and is observed through noisy measurements. We specifically consider modern signal processing problems with non-Markov signal dynamics (e.g. group sparsity) and/or non-Gaussian measurement models (e.g. point process observation models used in neuroscience). Through the use of auxiliary variables in the MAP estimation problem, we show that a consensus formulation of the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) enables iteratively computing separate estimates based on the likelihood and prior and subsequently "averaging" them in an appropriate sense using a Kalman smoother. As such, this can be applied to a broad class of problem settings and only requires modular adjustments when interchanging various aspects of the statistical model. Under broad log-concavity assumptions, we show that the separate estimation problems are convex optimization problems and that the iterative algorithm converges to the MAP estimate. As such, this framework can capture non-Markov latent time series models and non-Gaussian measurement models. We provide example applications involving (i) group-sparsity priors, within the context of electrophysiologic specrotemporal estimation, and (ii) non-Gaussian measurement models, within the context of dynamic analyses of learning with neural spiking and behavioral observations.
Online Synchrophasor-Based Dynamic State Estimation using Real-Time Digital Simulator
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Khazraj, Hesam; Adewole, Adeyemi Charles; Udaya, Annakkage
2018-01-01
Dynamic state estimation is a very important control center application used in the dynamic monitoring of state variables. This paper presents and validates a time-synchronized phasor measurement unit (PMU)-based for dynamic state estimation by unscented Kalman filter (UKF) method using the real-...... using the RTDS (real-time digital simulator). The dynamic state variables of multi-machine systems are monitored and measured for the study on the transient behavior of power systems.......Dynamic state estimation is a very important control center application used in the dynamic monitoring of state variables. This paper presents and validates a time-synchronized phasor measurement unit (PMU)-based for dynamic state estimation by unscented Kalman filter (UKF) method using the real......-time digital simulator (RTDS). The dynamic state variables of the system are the rotor angle and speed of the generators. The performance of the UKF method is tested with PMU measurements as inputs using the IEEE 14-bus test system. This test system was modeled in the RSCAD software and tested in real time...
Space-Time Smoothing of Complex Survey Data: Small Area Estimation for Child Mortality.
Mercer, Laina D; Wakefield, Jon; Pantazis, Athena; Lutambi, Angelina M; Masanja, Honorati; Clark, Samuel
2015-12-01
Many people living in low and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data including many household sample surveys are used to estimate health and population indicators. In this paper we combine data from sample surveys and demographic surveillance systems to produce small area estimates of child mortality through time. Small area estimates are necessary to understand geographical heterogeneity in health indicators when full-coverage vital statistics are not available. For this endeavor spatio-temporal smoothing is beneficial to alleviate problems of data sparsity. The use of conventional hierarchical models requires careful thought since the survey weights may need to be considered to alleviate bias due to non-random sampling and non-response. The application that motivated this work is estimation of child mortality rates in five-year time intervals in regions of Tanzania. Data come from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted over the period 1991-2010 and two demographic surveillance system sites. We derive a variance estimator of under five years child mortality that accounts for the complex survey weighting. For our application, the hierarchical models we consider include random effects for area, time and survey and we compare models using a variety of measures including the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO). The method we propose is implemented via the fast and accurate integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA).
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tetsuji Ota
2014-11-01
Full Text Available In this study, we test and demonstrate the utility of disturbance and recovery information derived from annual Landsat time series to predict current forest vertical structure (as compared to the more common approaches, that consider a sample of airborne Lidar and single-date Landsat derived variables. Mean Canopy Height (MCH was estimated separately using single date, time series, and the combination of single date and time series variables in multiple regression and random forest (RF models. The combination of single date and time series variables, which integrate disturbance history over the entire time series, overall provided better MCH prediction than using either of the two sets of variables separately. In general, the RF models resulted in improved performance in all estimates over those using multiple regression. The lowest validation error was obtained using Landsat time series variables in a RF model (R2 = 0.75 and RMSE = 2.81 m. Combining single date and time series data was more effective when the RF model was used (opposed to multiple regression. The RMSE for RF mean canopy height prediction was reduced by 13.5% when combining the two sets of variables as compared to the 3.6% RMSE decline presented by multiple regression. This study demonstrates the value of airborne Lidar and long term Landsat observations to generate estimates of forest canopy height using the random forest algorithm.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Leder, Frederic [2742 Sturges Highway, Westport, CT 06880 (United States); Shapiro, Judith N. [796 Sport Hill Road, Easton, CT 06612 (United States)
2008-08-15
There is virtual agreement among geologists that world production of conventional oil will peak at some point in the future. Oil, after all, is a finite resource, while demand will only grow over time. Geologists disagree, however, exactly when the peak will occur. Using data from the International Energy Agency, the US Department of Energy, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, and petroleum industry sources, we argue that conventional oil production will reach a worldwide maximum within the next 5-10 years, earlier than generally estimated, thus leaving a very short time frame within which to plan for conversion to alternative sources of energy. Unless planning is initiated immediately, the United States and other Western democracies will see their positions in the global economy undercut as military conflicts over limited energy resources increase, and wealth and power are shifted to authoritarian regimes in Russia, Venezuela, Africa and the Middle East. (author)
Estimation of time-varying reactivity by the H∞ optimal linear filter
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Suzuki, Katsuo; Shimazaki, Junya; Watanabe, Koiti
1995-01-01
The problem of estimating the time-varying net reactivity from flux measurements is solved for a point reactor kinetics model using a linear filtering technique in an H ∞ settings. In order to sue this technique, an appropriate dynamical model of the reactivity is constructed that can be embedded into the reactor model as one of its variables. A filter, which minimizes the H ∞ norm of the estimation error power spectrum, operates on neutron density measurements corrupted by noise and provides an estimate of the dynamic net reactivity. Computer simulations are performed to reveal the basic characteristics of the H ∞ optimal filter. The results of the simulation indicate that the filter can be used to determine the time-varying reactivity from neutron density measurements that have been corrupted by noise
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dimitrios Dadakas
2016-12-01
Full Text Available The stock beta coefficient literature extensively discusses the proper methods for the estimation of beta as well as its use in asset valuation. However, there are fewer references with respect to the appropriate time horizon that investors should utilize when evaluating the risk-return relationship of a stock. We examine the appropriate time horizon for beta estimation, differentiating our results by sector according to the Industry Classification Benchmark. We employ data from the NYSE and estimate varying lengths of beta employing data from 30 to 250 trading days. The constructed beta series is then examined for the presence of breaks using the endogenous structural break literature. Results show evidence against the use of betas that employ more than 90 trading days of data provisional to the sector under study.
Comparisons of Crosswind Velocity Profile Estimates Used in Fast-Time Wake Vortex Prediction Models
Pruis, Mathew J.; Delisi, Donald P.; Ahmad, Nashat N.
2011-01-01
Five methods for estimating crosswind profiles used in fast-time wake vortex prediction models are compared in this study. Previous investigations have shown that temporal and spatial variations in the crosswind vertical profile have a large impact on the transport and time evolution of the trailing vortex pair. The most important crosswind parameters are the magnitude of the crosswind and the gradient in the crosswind shear. It is known that pulsed and continuous wave lidar measurements can provide good estimates of the wind profile in the vicinity of airports. In this study comparisons are made between estimates of the crosswind profiles from a priori information on the trajectory of the vortex pair as well as crosswind profiles derived from different sensors and a regional numerical weather prediction model.
Ultra-small time-delay estimation via a weak measurement technique with post-selection
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fang, Chen; Huang, Jing-Zheng; Yu, Yang; Li, Qinzheng; Zeng, Guihua
2016-01-01
Weak measurement is a novel technique for parameter estimation with higher precision. In this paper we develop a general theory for the parameter estimation based on a weak measurement technique with arbitrary post-selection. The weak-value amplification model and the joint weak measurement model are two special cases in our theory. Applying the developed theory, time-delay estimation is investigated in both theory and experiments. The experimental results show that when the time delay is ultra-small, the joint weak measurement scheme outperforms the weak-value amplification scheme, and is robust against not only misalignment errors but also the wavelength dependence of the optical components. These results are consistent with theoretical predictions that have not been previously verified by any experiment. (paper)
Murphy, K. A.
1990-01-01
A parameter estimation algorithm is developed which can be used to estimate unknown time- or state-dependent delays and other parameters (e.g., initial condition) appearing within a nonlinear nonautonomous functional differential equation. The original infinite dimensional differential equation is approximated using linear splines, which are allowed to move with the variable delay. The variable delays are approximated using linear splines as well. The approximation scheme produces a system of ordinary differential equations with nice computational properties. The unknown parameters are estimated within the approximating systems by minimizing a least-squares fit-to-data criterion. Convergence theorems are proved for time-dependent delays and state-dependent delays within two classes, which say essentially that fitting the data by using approximations will, in the limit, provide a fit to the data using the original system. Numerical test examples are presented which illustrate the method for all types of delay.
Jeyaprakash, Ayyamperumal; Hoy, Marjorie A
2009-01-01
Spiders, scorpions, mites and ticks (chelicerates) form one of the most diverse groups of arthropods on land, but their origin and times of diversification are not yet established. We estimated, for the first time, the molecular divergence times for these chelicerates using complete mitochondrial sequences from 25 taxa. All mitochondrial genes were evaluated individually or after concatenation. Sequences belonging to three missing genes (ND3, 6, and tRNA-Asp) from three taxa, as well as the faster-evolving ribosomal RNAs (12S and 16S), tRNAs, and the third base of each codon from 11 protein-coding genes (PCGs) (COI-III, CYTB, ATP8, 6, ND1-2, 4L, and 4-5), were identified and removed. The remaining concatenated sequences from 11 PCGs produced a completely resolved phylogenetic tree and confirmed that all chelicerates are monophyletic. Removing the third base from each codon was essential to resolve the phylogeny, which allowed deep divergence times to be calculated using three nodes calibrated with upper and lower priors. Our estimates indicate that the orders and classes of spiders, scorpions, mites, and ticks diversified in the late Paleozoic, much earlier than previously reported from fossil date estimates. The divergence time estimated for ticks suggests that their first land hosts could have been amphibians rather than reptiles. Using molecular data, we separated the spider-scorpion clades and estimated their divergence times at 397 +/- 23 million years ago. Algae, fungi, plants, and animals, including insects, were well established on land when these chelicerates diversified. Future analyses, involving mitochondrial sequences from additional chelicerate taxa and the inclusion of nuclear genes (or entire genomes) will provide a more complete picture of the evolution of the Chelicerata, the second most abundant group of animals on earth.
Estimating the Value of Life, Injury, and Travel Time Saved Using a Stated Preference Framework.
Niroomand, Naghmeh; Jenkins, Glenn P
2016-06-01
The incidence of fatality over the period 2010-2014 from automobile accidents in North Cyprus is 2.75 times greater than the average for the EU. With the prospect of North Cyprus entering the EU, many investments will need to be undertaken to improve road safety in order to reach EU benchmarks. The objective of this study is to provide local estimates of the value of a statistical life and injury along with the value of time savings. These are among the parameter values needed for the evaluation of the change in the expected incidence of automotive accidents and time savings brought about by such projects. In this study we conducted a stated choice experiment to identify the preferences and tradeoffs of automobile drivers in North Cyprus for improved travel times, travel costs, and safety. The choice of route was examined using mixed logit models to obtain the marginal utilities associated with each attribute of the routes that consumers choose. These estimates were used to assess the individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid fatalities and injuries and to save travel time. We then used the results to obtain community-wide estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL) saved, the value of injury (VI) prevented, and the value per hour of travel time saved. The estimates for the VSL range from €315,293 to €1,117,856 and the estimates of VI from € 5,603 to € 28,186. These values are consistent, after adjusting for differences in incomes, with the median results of similar studies done for EU countries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pendrill, L.R.
1984-01-01
A graphical method for separating mass and volume effects from purely optical isotope shift data is presented and compared with King's ''bunching'' method. Recent experimental data on isotope shifts for a wide range of spectral lines in the naturally abundant isotopes of Ba I and Ba II are analysed. Some agreement is found with muonic X-ray data concerning the nuclear size for the isotopes 136, 137 and 138, but there is disagreement (over 20%) for the other isotopes. The level isotope shifts are further parameterised in terms of a linear model, and the specific mass effect is decomposed into sums of one-electron and two-electron shift parameters with respect to the inert-gas like ground state of Ba III. (orig.)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger
An economic time series can often be viewed as a noisy proxy for an underlying economic variable. Measurement errors will influence the dynamic properties of the observed process and may conceal the persistence of the underlying time series. In this paper we develop instrumental variable (IV...... application despite the large sample. Unit root tests based on the IV estimator have better finite sample properties in this context....
Graffigna, Victoria
2017-01-01
The TOmographic Model of the IONospheric electron content (TOMION) software implements a simultaneous precise geodetic and ionospheric modeling, which can be used to test new approaches for real-time precise GNSS modeling (positioning, ionospheric and tropospheric delays, clock errors, among others). In this work, the software is used to estimate the Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) emulating real time and its performance is evaluated through a comparative analysis with a built-in GIPSY estima...
Conformational Network and Residence Time Estimation of Trypsin-Benzamidine Unbinding Pathways
Dickson, Alex; Lotz, Samuel D.
2016-01-01
In this poster we present results from molecular dynamics sampling of benzamidine unbinding from trypsin. We give background on the weighted ensemble technique used (WExplore) and the Markovian state model construction. Our network shows three unique unbinding pathways including a never before observed unbinding pathway. We also estimate residence time to within one order of magnitude to the experimental value.
Estimates of the first Dirichlet eigenvalue from exit time moment spectra
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hurtado, Ana; Markvorsen, Steen; Palmer, Vicente
2013-01-01
We compute the first Dirichlet eigenvalue of a geodesic ball in a rotationally symmetric model space in terms of the moment spectrum for the Brownian motion exit times from the ball. This expression implies an estimate as exact as you want for the first Dirichlet eigenvalue of a geodesic ball...
Real-time fault-tolerant moving horizon air data estimation for the RECONFIGURE benchmark
Wan, Y.; Keviczky, T.
2018-01-01
This paper proposes a real-time fault-tolerant estimation approach for combined sensor fault diagnosis and air data reconstruction. Due to simultaneous influence of winds and latent faults on monitored sensors, it is challenging to address the tradeoff between robustness to wind disturbances and
Time-varying coefficient estimation in SURE models. Application to portfolio management
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Casas, Isabel; Ferreira, Eva; Orbe, Susan
This paper provides a detailed analysis of the asymptotic properties of a kernel estimator for a Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations model with time-varying coefficients (tv-SURE) under very general conditions. Theoretical results together with a simulation study differentiates the cases...
Fast and unbiased estimator of the time-dependent Hurst exponent
Pianese, Augusto; Bianchi, Sergio; Palazzo, Anna Maria
2018-03-01
We combine two existing estimators of the local Hurst exponent to improve both the goodness of fit and the computational speed of the algorithm. An application with simulated time series is implemented, and a Monte Carlo simulation is performed to provide evidence of the improvement.
Dynamic state estimation and prediction for real-time control and operation
Nguyen, P.H.; Venayagamoorthy, G.K.; Kling, W.L.; Ribeiro, P.F.
2013-01-01
Real-time control and operation are crucial to deal with increasing complexity of modern power systems. To effectively enable those functions, it is required a Dynamic State Estimation (DSE) function to provide accurate network state variables at the right moment and predict their trends ahead. This
Estimating marginal properties of quantitative real-time PCR data using nonlinear mixed models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gerhard, Daniel; Bremer, Melanie; Ritz, Christian
2014-01-01
A unified modeling framework based on a set of nonlinear mixed models is proposed for flexible modeling of gene expression in real-time PCR experiments. Focus is on estimating the marginal or population-based derived parameters: cycle thresholds and ΔΔc(t), but retaining the conditional mixed mod...
A simultaneous approach to the estimation of risk aversion and the subjective time discount rate
Booij, A.S.; van Praag, B.M.S.
2009-01-01
In this paper we analyze a sample of 1832 individuals who responded to six randomly generated lottery questions that differ with respect to chance, prize and the timing of the draw. Using a model that explicitly allows for consumption smoothing, we obtain an estimate of relative risk aversion of 82.
Towards real-time body pose estimation for presenters in meeting environments
Poppe, Ronald Walter; Heylen, Dirk K.J.; Nijholt, Antinus; Poel, Mannes
2005-01-01
This paper describes a computer vision-based approach to body pose estimation. The algorithm can be executed in real-time and processes low resolution, monocular image sequences. A silhouette is extracted and matched against a projection of a 16 DOF human body model. In addition, skin color is used
Postmortem time estimation using body temperature and a finite-element computer model
Hartog, E.A. den; Lotens, W.A.
2004-01-01
In the Netherlands most murder victims are found 2-24 h after the crime. During this period, body temperature decrease is the most reliable method to estimate the postmortem time (PMT). Recently, two murder cases were analysed in which currently available methods did not provide a su.ciently
Jamie S. Sanderlin; Peter M. Waser; James E. Hines; James D. Nichols
2012-01-01
Metapopulation ecology has historically been rich in theory, yet analytical approaches for inferring demographic relationships among local populations have been few. We show how reverse-time multi-state captureÂrecapture models can be used to estimate the importance of local recruitment and interpopulation dispersal to metapopulation growth. We use 'contribution...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pittalà, Fabio; Msallem, Majdi; Hauske, Fabian N.
2012-01-01
We propose a non-weighted feed-forward equalization method with filter update by averaging channel estimations based on short CAZAC sequences. Three averaging methods are presented and tested by simulations in a time-varying 2×2 MIMO optical system....
A Comparison of Iterative 2D-3D Pose Estimation Methods for Real-Time Applications
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Grest, Daniel; Krüger, Volker; Petersen, Thomas
2009-01-01
This work compares iterative 2D-3D Pose Estimation methods for use in real-time applications. The compared methods are available for public as C++ code. One method is part of the openCV library, namely POSIT. Because POSIT is not applicable for planar 3Dpoint congurations, we include the planar P...
Using convolutional decoding to improve time delay and phase estimation in digital communications
Ormesher, Richard C [Albuquerque, NM; Mason, John J [Albuquerque, NM
2010-01-26
The time delay and/or phase of a communication signal received by a digital communication receiver can be estimated based on a convolutional decoding operation that the communication receiver performs on the received communication signal. If the original transmitted communication signal has been spread according to a spreading operation, a corresponding despreading operation can be integrated into the convolutional decoding operation.
Zhang, Xiaoyong; Zhang, Zhijie; Chang, Yuguang; Chen, Zhengchao
2015-12-01
Accurate data on the spatial distribution and potential growth estimation of human population are playing pivotal role in addressing and mitigating heavy lose caused by earthquake. Traditional demographic data is limited in its spatial resolution and is extremely hard to update. With the accessibility of massive DMSP/OLS night time imagery, it is possible to model population distribution at the county level across China. In order to compare and improve the continuity and consistency of time-series DMSP night-time satellite imagery obtained by different satellites in same year or different years by the same satellite from 2002-2010, normalized method was deployed for the inter-correction among imageries. And we referred to the reference F162007 Jixi city, whose social-economic has been relatively stable. Through binomial model, with average R2 0.90, then derived the correction factor of each year. The normalization obviously improved consistency comparing to previous data, which enhanced the correspondent accuracy of model. Then conducted the model of population density between average night-time light intensity in eight-economic districts. According to the two parameters variation law of consecutive years, established the prediction model of next following years with R2of slope and constant typically 0.85 to 0.95 in different regions. To validate the model, taking the year of 2005 as example, retrieved quantitatively population distribution in per square kilometer based on the model, then compared the results to the statistical data based on census, the difference of the result is acceptable. In summary, the estimation model facilitates the quick estimation and prediction in relieving the damage to people, which is significant in decision-making.
Huo, Ming-Xia; Li, Ying
2017-12-01
Quantum error correction is important to quantum information processing, which allows us to reliably process information encoded in quantum error correction codes. Efficient quantum error correction benefits from the knowledge of error rates. We propose a protocol for monitoring error rates in real time without interrupting the quantum error correction. Any adaptation of the quantum error correction code or its implementation circuit is not required. The protocol can be directly applied to the most advanced quantum error correction techniques, e.g. surface code. A Gaussian processes algorithm is used to estimate and predict error rates based on error correction data in the past. We find that using these estimated error rates, the probability of error correction failures can be significantly reduced by a factor increasing with the code distance.
Vallières, Annie; Azaiez, Aïda; Moreau, Vincent; LeBlanc, Mélanie; Morin, Charles M
2014-12-01
Shift work disorder involves insomnia and/or excessive sleepiness associated with the work schedule. The present study examined the impact of insomnia on the perceived physical and psychological health of adults working on night and rotating shift schedules compared to day workers. A total of 418 adults (51% women, mean age 41.4 years), including 51 night workers, 158 rotating shift workers, and 209 day workers were selected from an epidemiological study. An algorithm was used to classify each participant of the two groups (working night or rotating shifts) according to the presence or absence of insomnia symptoms. Each of these individuals was paired with a day worker according to gender, age, and income. Participants completed several questionnaires measuring sleep, health, and psychological variables. Night and rotating shift workers with insomnia presented a sleep profile similar to that of day workers with insomnia. Sleep time was more strongly related to insomnia than to shift work per se. Participants with insomnia in the three groups complained of anxiety, depression, and fatigue, and reported consuming equal amounts of sleep-aid medication. Insomnia also contributed to chronic pain and otorhinolaryngology problems, especially among rotating shift workers. Work productivity and absenteeism were more strongly related to insomnia. The present study highlights insomnia as an important component of the sleep difficulties experienced by shift workers. Insomnia may exacerbate certain physical and mental health problems of shift workers, and impair their quality of life. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chen, J.; Hubbard, S.; Williams, K.; Pride, S.; Li, L.; Steefel, C.; Slater, L.
2009-04-15
We develop a state-space Bayesian framework to combine time-lapse geophysical data with other types of information for quantitative estimation of biogeochemical parameters during bioremediation. We consider characteristics of end-products of biogeochemical transformations as state vectors, which evolve under constraints of local environments through evolution equations, and consider time-lapse geophysical data as available observations, which could be linked to the state vectors through petrophysical models. We estimate the state vectors and their associated unknown parameters over time using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods. To demonstrate the use of the state-space approach, we apply it to complex resistivity data collected during laboratory column biostimulation experiments that were poised to precipitate iron and zinc sulfides during sulfate reduction. We develop a petrophysical model based on sphere-shaped cells to link the sulfide precipitate properties to the time-lapse geophysical attributes and estimate volume fraction of the sulfide precipitates, fraction of the dispersed, sulfide-encrusted cells, mean radius of the aggregated clusters, and permeability over the course of the experiments. Results of the case study suggest that the developed state-space approach permits the use of geophysical datasets for providing quantitative estimates of end-product characteristics and hydrological feedbacks associated with biogeochemical transformations. Although tested here on laboratory column experiment datasets, the developed framework provides the foundation needed for quantitative field-scale estimation of biogeochemical parameters over space and time using direct, but often sparse wellbore data with indirect, but more spatially extensive geophysical datasets.
Real-time soft tissue motion estimation for lung tumors during radiotherapy delivery
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rottmann, Joerg; Berbeco, Ross; Keall, Paul
2013-01-01
Purpose: To provide real-time lung tumor motion estimation during radiotherapy treatment delivery without the need for implanted fiducial markers or additional imaging dose to the patient.Methods: 2D radiographs from the therapy beam's-eye-view (BEV) perspective are captured at a frame rate of 12.8 Hz with a frame grabber allowing direct RAM access to the image buffer. An in-house developed real-time soft tissue localization algorithm is utilized to calculate soft tissue displacement from these images in real-time. The system is tested with a Varian TX linear accelerator and an AS-1000 amorphous silicon electronic portal imaging device operating at a resolution of 512 × 384 pixels. The accuracy of the motion estimation is verified with a dynamic motion phantom. Clinical accuracy was tested on lung SBRT images acquired at 2 fps.Results: Real-time lung tumor motion estimation from BEV images without fiducial markers is successfully demonstrated. For the phantom study, a mean tracking error <1.0 mm [root mean square (rms) error of 0.3 mm] was observed. The tracking rms accuracy on BEV images from a lung SBRT patient (≈20 mm tumor motion range) is 1.0 mm.Conclusions: The authors demonstrate for the first time real-time markerless lung tumor motion estimation from BEV images alone. The described system can operate at a frame rate of 12.8 Hz and does not require prior knowledge to establish traceable landmarks for tracking on the fly. The authors show that the geometric accuracy is similar to (or better than) previously published markerless algorithms not operating in real-time
Real-time soft tissue motion estimation for lung tumors during radiotherapy delivery
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rottmann, Joerg; Berbeco, Ross [Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Dana Farber-Cancer Institute and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts 02115 (United States); Keall, Paul [Radiation Physics Laboratory, Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney, Sydney NSW 2006 (Australia)
2013-09-15
Purpose: To provide real-time lung tumor motion estimation during radiotherapy treatment delivery without the need for implanted fiducial markers or additional imaging dose to the patient.Methods: 2D radiographs from the therapy beam's-eye-view (BEV) perspective are captured at a frame rate of 12.8 Hz with a frame grabber allowing direct RAM access to the image buffer. An in-house developed real-time soft tissue localization algorithm is utilized to calculate soft tissue displacement from these images in real-time. The system is tested with a Varian TX linear accelerator and an AS-1000 amorphous silicon electronic portal imaging device operating at a resolution of 512 × 384 pixels. The accuracy of the motion estimation is verified with a dynamic motion phantom. Clinical accuracy was tested on lung SBRT images acquired at 2 fps.Results: Real-time lung tumor motion estimation from BEV images without fiducial markers is successfully demonstrated. For the phantom study, a mean tracking error <1.0 mm [root mean square (rms) error of 0.3 mm] was observed. The tracking rms accuracy on BEV images from a lung SBRT patient (≈20 mm tumor motion range) is 1.0 mm.Conclusions: The authors demonstrate for the first time real-time markerless lung tumor motion estimation from BEV images alone. The described system can operate at a frame rate of 12.8 Hz and does not require prior knowledge to establish traceable landmarks for tracking on the fly. The authors show that the geometric accuracy is similar to (or better than) previously published markerless algorithms not operating in real-time.
Errors in 'BED'-derived estimates of HIV incidence will vary by place, time and age.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Timothy B Hallett
2009-05-01
Full Text Available The BED Capture Enzyme Immunoassay, believed to distinguish recent HIV infections, is being used to estimate HIV incidence, although an important property of the test--how specificity changes with time since infection--has not been not measured.We construct hypothetical scenarios for the performance of BED test, consistent with current knowledge, and explore how this could influence errors in BED estimates of incidence using a mathematical model of six African countries. The model is also used to determine the conditions and the sample sizes required for the BED test to reliably detect trends in HIV incidence.If the chance of misclassification by BED increases with time since infection, the overall proportion of individuals misclassified could vary widely between countries, over time, and across age-groups, in a manner determined by the historic course of the epidemic and the age-pattern of incidence. Under some circumstances, changes in BED estimates over time can approximately track actual changes in incidence, but large sample sizes (50,000+ will be required for recorded changes to be statistically significant.The relationship between BED test specificity and time since infection has not been fully measured, but, if it decreases, errors in estimates of incidence could vary by place, time and age-group. This means that post-assay adjustment procedures using parameters from different populations or at different times may not be valid. Further research is urgently needed into the properties of the BED test, and the rate of misclassification in a wide range of populations.
Use of Low-Level Sensor Data to Improve the Accuracy of Bluetooth-Based Travel Time Estimation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Araghi, Bahar Namaki; Christensen, Lars Tørholm; Krishnan, Rajesh
2013-01-01
by a single device. The latter situation could lead to location ambiguity and could reduce the accuracy of travel time estimation. Therefore, the accuracy of travel time estimation by Bluetooth technology depends on how location ambiguity is handled by the estimation method. The issue of multiple detection...... events in the context of travel time estimation by Bluetooth technology has been considered by various researchers. However, treatment of this issue has been simplistic. Most previous studies have used the first detection event (enter-enter) as the best estimate. No systematic analysis has been conducted...... to explore the most accurate method of travel time estimation with multiple detection events. In this study, different aspects of the Bluetooth detection zone, including size and impact on the accuracy of travel time estimation, were discussed. Four methods were applied to estimate travel time: enter...
A Bayesian framework to estimate diversification rates and their variation through time and space
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Silvestro Daniele
2011-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Patterns of species diversity are the result of speciation and extinction processes, and molecular phylogenetic data can provide valuable information to derive their variability through time and across clades. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods offer a promising framework to incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty when estimating rates of diversification. Results We introduce a new approach to estimate diversification rates in a Bayesian framework over a distribution of trees under various constant and variable rate birth-death and pure-birth models, and test it on simulated phylogenies. Furthermore, speciation and extinction rates and their posterior credibility intervals can be estimated while accounting for non-random taxon sampling. The framework is particularly suitable for hypothesis testing using Bayes factors, as we demonstrate analyzing dated phylogenies of Chondrostoma (Cyprinidae and Lupinus (Fabaceae. In addition, we develop a model that extends the rate estimation to a meta-analysis framework in which different data sets are combined in a single analysis to detect general temporal and spatial trends in diversification. Conclusions Our approach provides a flexible framework for the estimation of diversification parameters and hypothesis testing while simultaneously accounting for uncertainties in the divergence times and incomplete taxon sampling.
The estimation of time-varying risks in asset pricing modelling using B-Spline method
Nurjannah; Solimun; Rinaldo, Adji
2017-12-01
Asset pricing modelling has been extensively studied in the past few decades to explore the risk-return relationship. The asset pricing literature typically assumed a static risk-return relationship. However, several studies found few anomalies in the asset pricing modelling which captured the presence of the risk instability. The dynamic model is proposed to offer a better model. The main problem highlighted in the dynamic model literature is that the set of conditioning information is unobservable and therefore some assumptions have to be made. Hence, the estimation requires additional assumptions about the dynamics of risk. To overcome this problem, the nonparametric estimators can also be used as an alternative for estimating risk. The flexibility of the nonparametric setting avoids the problem of misspecification derived from selecting a functional form. This paper investigates the estimation of time-varying asset pricing model using B-Spline, as one of nonparametric approach. The advantages of spline method is its computational speed and simplicity, as well as the clarity of controlling curvature directly. The three popular asset pricing models will be investigated namely CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), Fama-French 3-factors model and Carhart 4-factors model. The results suggest that the estimated risks are time-varying and not stable overtime which confirms the risk instability anomaly. The results is more pronounced in Carhart’s 4-factors model.
GonzáLez, Pablo J.; FernáNdez, José
2011-10-01
Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is a reliable technique for measuring crustal deformation. However, despite its long application in geophysical problems, its error estimation has been largely overlooked. Currently, the largest problem with InSAR is still the atmospheric propagation errors, which is why multitemporal interferometric techniques have been successfully developed using a series of interferograms. However, none of the standard multitemporal interferometric techniques, namely PS or SB (Persistent Scatterers and Small Baselines, respectively) provide an estimate of their precision. Here, we present a method to compute reliable estimates of the precision of the deformation time series. We implement it for the SB multitemporal interferometric technique (a favorable technique for natural terrains, the most usual target of geophysical applications). We describe the method that uses a properly weighted scheme that allows us to compute estimates for all interferogram pixels, enhanced by a Montecarlo resampling technique that properly propagates the interferogram errors (variance-covariances) into the unknown parameters (estimated errors for the displacements). We apply the multitemporal error estimation method to Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands), where no active magmatic activity has been reported in the last decades. We detect deformation around Timanfaya volcano (lengthening of line-of-sight ˜ subsidence), where the last eruption in 1730-1736 occurred. Deformation closely follows the surface temperature anomalies indicating that magma crystallization (cooling and contraction) of the 300-year shallow magmatic body under Timanfaya volcano is still ongoing.
On the estimation of wall pressure coherence using time-resolved tomographic PIV
Pröbsting, Stefan; Scarano, Fulvio; Bernardini, Matteo; Pirozzoli, Sergio
2013-07-01
Three-dimensional time-resolved velocity field measurements are obtained using a high-speed tomographic Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) system on a fully developed flat plate turbulent boundary layer for the estimation of wall pressure fluctuations. The work focuses on the applicability of tomographic PIV to compute the coherence of pressure fluctuations, with attention to the estimation of the stream and spanwise coherence length. The latter is required for estimations of aeroacoustic noise radiation by boundary layers and trailing edge flows, but is also of interest for vibro-structural problems. The pressure field is obtained by solving the Poisson equation for incompressible flows, where the source terms are provided by time-resolved velocity field measurements. Measured 3D velocity data is compared to results obtained from planar PIV, and a Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) at similar Reynolds number. An improved method for the estimation of the material based on a least squares estimator of the velocity derivative along a particle trajectory is proposed and applied. Computed surface pressure fluctuations are further verified by means of simultaneous measurements by a pinhole microphone and compared to the DNS results and a semi-empirical model available from literature. The correlation coefficient for the reconstructed pressure time series with respect to pinhole microphone measurements attains approximately 0.5 for the band-pass filtered signal over the range of frequencies resolved by the velocity field measurements. Scaled power spectra of the pressure at a single point compare favorably to the DNS results and those available from literature. Finally, the coherence of surface pressure fluctuations and the resulting span- and streamwise coherence lengths are estimated and compared to semi-empirical models and DNS results.
An estimation of crude oil import demand in Turkey: Evidence from time-varying parameters approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ozturk, Ilhan; Arisoy, Ibrahim
2016-01-01
The aim of this study is to model crude oil import demand and estimate the price and income elasticities of imported crude oil in Turkey based on a time-varying parameters (TVP) approach with the aim of obtaining accurate and more robust estimates of price and income elasticities. This study employs annual time series data of domestic oil consumption, real GDP, and oil price for the period 1966–2012. The empirical results indicate that both the income and price elasticities are in line with the theoretical expectations. However, the income elasticity is statistically significant while the price elasticity is statistically insignificant. The relatively high value of income elasticity (1.182) from this study suggests that crude oil import in Turkey is more responsive to changes in income level. This result indicates that imported crude oil is a normal good and rising income levels will foster higher consumption of oil based equipments, vehicles and services by economic agents. The estimated income elasticity of 1.182 suggests that imported crude oil consumption grows at a higher rate than income. This in turn reduces oil intensity over time. Therefore, crude oil import during the estimation period is substantially driven by income. - Highlights: • We estimated the price and income elasticities of imported crude oil in Turkey. • Income elasticity is statistically significant and it is 1.182. • The price elasticity is statistically insignificant. • Crude oil import in Turkey is more responsive to changes in income level. • Crude oil import during the estimation period is substantially driven by income.
Strupczewski, Witold G.; Bogdanowich, Ewa; Debele, Sisay
2016-04-01
Under Polish climate conditions the series of Annual Maxima (AM) flows are usually a mixture of peak flows of thaw- and rainfall- originated floods. The northern, lowland regions are dominated by snowmelt floods whilst in mountainous regions the proportion of rainfall floods is predominant. In many stations the majority of AM can be of snowmelt origin, but the greatest peak flows come from rainfall floods or vice versa. In a warming climate, precipitation is less likely to occur as snowfall. A shift from a snow- towards a rain-dominated regime results in a decreasing trend in mean and standard deviations of winter peak flows whilst rainfall floods do not exhibit any trace of non-stationarity. That is why a simple form of trends (i.e. linear trends) are more difficult to identify in AM time-series than in Seasonal Maxima (SM), usually winter season time-series. Hence it is recommended to analyse trends in SM, where a trend in standard deviation strongly influences the time -dependent upper quantiles. The uncertainty associated with the extrapolation of the trend makes it necessary to apply a relationship for trend which has time derivative tending to zero, e.g. we can assume a new climate equilibrium epoch approaching, or a time horizon is limited by the validity of the trend model. For both winter and summer SM time series, at least three distributions functions with trend model in the location, scale and shape parameters are estimated by means of the GAMLSS package using the ML-techniques. The resulting trend estimates in mean and standard deviation are mutually compared to the observed trends. Then, using AIC measures as weights, a multi-model distribution is constructed for each of two seasons separately. Further, assuming a mutual independence of the seasonal maxima, an AM model with time-dependent parameters can be obtained. The use of a multi-model approach can alleviate the effects of different and often contradictory trends obtained by using and identifying
Worldwide incidence of malaria in 2009: estimates, time trends, and a critique of methods.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Richard E Cibulskis
2011-12-01
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 6, including estimates of, and time trends in, the number of malaria cases, has relied on risk maps constructed from surveys of parasite prevalence, and on routine case reports compiled by health ministries. Here we present a critique of both methods, illustrated with national incidence estimates for 2009. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compiled information on the number of cases reported by National Malaria Control Programs in 99 countries with ongoing malaria transmission. For 71 countries we estimated the total incidence of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax by adjusting the number of reported cases using data on reporting completeness, the proportion of suspects that are parasite-positive, the proportion of confirmed cases due to each Plasmodium species, and the extent to which patients use public sector health facilities. All four factors varied markedly among countries and regions. For 28 African countries with less reliable routine surveillance data, we estimated the number of cases from model-based methods that link measures of malaria transmission with case incidence. In 2009, 98% of cases were due to P. falciparum in Africa and 65% in other regions. There were an estimated 225 million malaria cases (5th-95th centiles, 146-316 million worldwide, 176 (110-248 million in the African region, and 49 (36-68 million elsewhere. Our estimates are lower than other published figures, especially survey-based estimates for non-African countries. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of malaria incidence derived from routine surveillance data were typically lower than those derived from surveys of parasite prevalence. Carefully interpreted surveillance data can be used to monitor malaria trends in response to control efforts, and to highlight areas where malaria programs and health information systems need to be strengthened. As malaria incidence declines around the world, evaluation of control efforts
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hashim, Marina; Abidin, Diana Atiqah Zainal [School of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor (Malaysia); Das, Simon K. [Marine Ecosystem Research Centre, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi (Malaysia); Ghaffar, Mazlan Abd. [School of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia and Marine Ecosystem Research Centre, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan M (Malaysia)
2014-09-03
The present study was conducted to investigate the food consumption pattern and gastric emptying time using x-radiography technique in scats fish, Scatophagus argus feeding to satiation in laboratory conditions. Prior to feeding experiment, fish of various sizes were examined their stomach volume, using freshly prepared stomachs ligatured at the tips of the burret, where the maximum amount of distilled water collected in the stomach were measured (ml). Stomach volume is correlated with maximum food intake (S{sub max}) and it can estimate the maximum stomach distension by allometric model i.e volume=0.0000089W{sup 2.93}. Gastric emptying time was estimated using a qualitative X-radiography technique, where the fish of various sizes were fed to satiation at different time since feeding. All the experimental fish was feed into satiation using radio-opaque barium sulphate (BaSO{sub 4}) paste injected in the wet shrimp in proportion to the body weight. The BaSO{sub 4} was found suitable to track the movement of feed/prey in the stomach over time and gastric emptying time of scats fish can be estimated. The results of qualitative X-Radiography observation of gastric motility, showed the fish (200 gm) that fed to maximum satiation meal (circa 11 gm) completely emptied their stomach within 30 - 36 hrs. The results of the present study will provide the first baseline information on the stomach volume, gastric emptying of scats fish in captivity.
Hashim, Marina; Abidin, Diana Atiqah Zainal; Das, Simon K.; Ghaffar, Mazlan Abd.
2014-09-01
The present study was conducted to investigate the food consumption pattern and gastric emptying time using x-radiography technique in scats fish, Scatophagus argus feeding to satiation in laboratory conditions. Prior to feeding experiment, fish of various sizes were examined their stomach volume, using freshly prepared stomachs ligatured at the tips of the burret, where the maximum amount of distilled water collected in the stomach were measured (ml). Stomach volume is correlated with maximum food intake (Smax) and it can estimate the maximum stomach distension by allometric model i.e volume=0.0000089W2.93. Gastric emptying time was estimated using a qualitative X-radiography technique, where the fish of various sizes were fed to satiation at different time since feeding. All the experimental fish was feed into satiation using radio-opaque barium sulphate (BaSO4) paste injected in the wet shrimp in proportion to the body weight. The BaSO4 was found suitable to track the movement of feed/prey in the stomach over time and gastric emptying time of scats fish can be estimated. The results of qualitative X-Radiography observation of gastric motility, showed the fish (200 gm) that fed to maximum satiation meal (circa 11 gm) completely emptied their stomach within 30 - 36 hrs. The results of the present study will provide the first baseline information on the stomach volume, gastric emptying of scats fish in captivity.
Wang, Bingyuan; Zhang, Yao; Liu, Dongyuan; Ding, Xuemei; Dan, Mai; Pan, Tiantian; Wang, Yihan; Li, Jiao; Zhou, Zhongxing; Zhang, Limin; Zhao, Huijuan; Gao, Feng
2018-02-01
Functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) is a non-invasive neuroimaging method to monitor the cerebral hemodynamic through the optical changes measured at the scalp surface. It has played a more and more important role in psychology and medical imaging communities. Real-time imaging of brain function using NIRS makes it possible to explore some sophisticated human brain functions unexplored before. Kalman estimator has been frequently used in combination with modified Beer-Lamber Law (MBLL) based optical topology (OT), for real-time brain function imaging. However, the spatial resolution of the OT is low, hampering the application of OT in exploring some complicated brain functions. In this paper, we develop a real-time imaging method combining diffuse optical tomography (DOT) and Kalman estimator, much improving the spatial resolution. Instead of only presenting one spatially distributed image indicating the changes of the absorption coefficients at each time point during the recording process, one real-time updated image using the Kalman estimator is provided. Its each voxel represents the amplitude of the hemodynamic response function (HRF) associated with this voxel. We evaluate this method using some simulation experiments, demonstrating that this method can obtain more reliable spatial resolution images. Furthermore, a statistical analysis is also conducted to help to decide whether a voxel in the field of view is activated or not.