Simultaneous measurement of refractive index and thickness distributions using low-coherence digital holography and vertical scanning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watanabe, Kaho; Ohshima, Masashi; Nomura, Takanori

2014-01-01

The simultaneous measurement method of a refractive index distribution and a thickness distribution using low-coherence digital holography with a vertical scanning is proposed. The proposed method consists of a combination of digital holography and low-coherence interferometry. The introduction of a datum plane enables the measurement of both a refractive index distribution and a thickness distribution. By the optical experiment, the potential of the proposed method is confirmed. (paper)

Distribution and Aggregate Thickness of Salt Deposits of the United States

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The map shows the distribution and aggregate thickness of salt deposits of the United States. This information is from contour map sheets, scanned and processed for...

Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

Science.gov (United States)

Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

2012-12-01

Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.

The Two Defaults Scenario for Stressing Credit Portfolio Loss Distributions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dirk Tasche

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The impact of a stress scenario of default events on the loss distribution of a credit portfolio can be assessed by determining the loss distribution conditional on these events. While it is conceptually easy to estimate loss distributions conditional on default events by means of Monte Carlo simulation, it becomes impractical for two or more simultaneous defaults as then the conditioning event is extremely rare. We provide an analytical approach to the calculation of the conditional loss distribution for the CreditRisk + portfolio model with independent random loss given default distributions. The analytical solution for this case can be used to check the accuracy of an approximation to the conditional loss distribution whereby the unconditional model is run with stressed input probabilities of default (PDs. It turns out that this approximation is unbiased. Numerical examples, however, suggest that the approximation may be seriously inaccurate but that the inaccuracy leads to overestimation of tail losses and, hence, the approach errs on the conservative side.

SMART-DS: Synthetic Models for Advanced, Realistic Testing: Distribution Systems and Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Palmintier, Bryan: Hodge, Bri-Mathias

2017-01-26

This presentation provides a Smart-DS project overview and status update for the ARPA-e GRID DATA program meeting 2017, including distribution systems, models, and scenarios, as well as opportunities for GRID DATA collaborations.

Charge distribution dependency on gap thickness of CMS endcap RPC

CERN Document Server

Park, Sung Keun

2016-01-01

We present a systematic study of charge distribution dependency of CMS Resistive Plate Chamber (RPC) on gap thickness.Prototypes of double-gap with five different gap thickness from 1.8mm to 1.0mm in 0.2mm steps have been built with 2mm thick phenolic high-pressure-laminated (HPL) plates. The charges of cosmic-muon signals induced on the detector strips are measured as a function of time using two four-channel 400-MHz fresh ADCs. In addition, the arrival time of the muons and the strip cluster sizes are measured by digitizing the signal using a 32-channel voltage-mode front-end-electronics and a 400-MHz 64-channel multi-hit TDC. The gain and the input impedance of the front-end-electronics were 200mV/mV and 20 Ohm, respectively.

Asymmetric transmission of acoustic waves in a layer thickness distribution gradient structure using metamaterials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jung-San Chen

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This research presents an innovative asymmetric transmission design using alternate layers of water and metamaterial with complex mass density. The directional transmission behavior of acoustic waves is observed numerically inside the composite structure with gradient layer thickness distribution and the rectifying performance of the present design is evaluated. The layer thickness distributions with arithmetic and geometric gradients are considered and the effect of gradient thickness on asymmetric wave propagation is systematically investigated using finite element simulation. The numerical results indicate that the maximum pressure density and transmission through the proposed structure are significantly influenced by the wave propagation direction over a wide range of audible frequencies. Tailoring the thickness of the layered structure enables the manipulation of asymmetric wave propagation within the desired frequency range. In conclusion, the proposed design offers a new possibility for developing directional-dependent acoustic devices.

Stability of distributed MPC in an intersection scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Sprodowski, T.; Pannek, J.

2015-11-01

The research topic of autonomous cars and the communication among them has attained much attention in the last years and is developing quickly. Among others, this research area spans fields such as image recognition, mathematical control theory, communication networks, and sensor fusion. We consider an intersection scenario where we divide the shared road space in different cells. These cells form a grid. The cars are modelled as an autonomous multi-agent system based on the Distributed Model Predictive Control algorithm (DMPC). We prove that the overall system reaches stability using Optimal Control for each multi-agent and demonstrate that by numerical results.

Peculiarities in the distribution of galactic Wolf-Rayet stars: constraints on evolutionary scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gomez, A.; Lortet, M.-C.; Pitault, A.

1981-01-01

The re-examination of the spatial distribution of 158 Wolf-Rayet stars in the Galaxy may help to define different breeds of Wolf-Rayet stars and put constraints on possible evolutionary scenarios. (Auth.)

The Distribution of Macular Thickness and Its Determinants in a Healthy Population.

Science.gov (United States)

Hashemi, Hassan; Khabazkhoob, Mehdi; Yekta, AbbasAli; Emamian, Mohammad Hassan; Nabovati, Payam; Fotouhi, Akbar

2017-10-01

To determine the distribution of macular thickness in a healthy Iranian population aged 45-69 years and its association with certain determinants. All participants underwent optometric examinations including measurement of uncorrected and corrected visual acuity, objective refraction by retinoscopy, and subjective refraction. Subsequently, all participants underwent slit-lamp biomicroscopy followed by fundus examination through direct and indirect ophthalmoscopy, and optical coherence tomography (OCT) imaging under pupil dilation. Mean central macular thickness was 255.4 µm (95% confidence interval, CI, 254.5-256.3 µm), average inner macular thickness was 316.5 µm (95% CI 315.9-317.1 µm), average outer macular thickness was 275.3 µm (95% CI 274.8-275.8 µm), and overall average thickness was 278.6 µm (95% CI 278.1-279.1 µm). A linear multiple regression model showed that all indexes were significantly larger in male participants (p < 0.001). Central macular thickness increased with age (coef = 0.25, p < 0.001) while overall, inner and outer macular thickness decreased with age (coef = -0.18, -0.15, -0.19, respectively, all p < 0.001). Central and inner macular thickness had a positive correlation (coef = 3.8, 2.6, respectively, both p < 0.001) and outer macular thickness had a negative correlation (coef = -1.6, p < 0.001) with axial length. Age, sex, refractive error, axial length, and keratometry were found to be associated with macular thickness. These factors should be taken into account when interpreting macular thickness measurements with spectral-domain OCT.

Smart-DS: Synthetic Models for Advanced, Realistic Testing: Distribution Systems and Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Palmintier, Bryan S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine T [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Elgindy, Tarek [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bugbee, Bruce [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Rossol, Michael N [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnamurthy, Dheepak [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vergara, Claudio [MIT; Domingo, Carlos Mateo [IIT Comillas; Postigo, Fernando [IIT Comillas; de Cuadra, Fernando [IIT Comillas; Gomez, Tomas [IIT Comillas; Duenas, Pablo [MIT; Luke, Max [MIT; Li, Vivian [MIT; Vinoth, Mohan [GE Grid Solutions; Kadankodu, Sree [GE Grid Solutions

2017-08-09

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in collaboration with Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Universidad Pontificia Comillas (Comillas-IIT, Spain) and GE Grid Solutions, is working on an ARPA-E GRID DATA project, titled Smart-DS, to create: 1) High-quality, realistic, synthetic distribution network models, and 2) Advanced tools for automated scenario generation based on high-resolution weather data and generation growth projections. Through these advancements, the Smart-DS project is envisioned to accelerate the development, testing, and adoption of advanced algorithms, approaches, and technologies for sustainable and resilient electric power systems, especially in the realm of U.S. distribution systems. This talk will present the goals and overall approach of the Smart-DS project, including the process of creating the synthetic distribution datasets using reference network model (RNM) and the comprehensive validation process to ensure network realism, feasibility, and applicability to advanced use cases. The talk will provide demonstrations of early versions of synthetic models, along with the lessons learnt from expert engagements to enhance future iterations. Finally, the scenario generation framework, its development plans, and co-ordination with GRID DATA repository teams to house these datasets for public access will also be discussed.

ORIGIN OF CHEMICAL AND DYNAMICAL PROPERTIES OF THE GALACTIC THICK DISK

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bekki, Kenji; Tsujimoto, Takuji

2011-01-01

We adopt a scenario in which the Galactic thick disk was formed by minor merging between the first generation of the Galactic thin disk (FGTD) and a dwarf galaxy about ∼9 Gyr ago and thereby investigate chemical and dynamical properties of the Galactic thick disk. In this scenario, the dynamical properties of the thick disk have long been influenced both by the mass growth of the second generation of the Galactic thin disk (i.e., the present thin disk) and by its non-axisymmetric structures. On the other hand, the early star formation history and chemical evolution of the thin disk was influenced by the remaining gas of the thick disk. Based on N-body simulations and chemical evolution models, we investigate the radial metallicity gradient, structural and kinematical properties, and detailed chemical abundance patterns of the thick disk. Our numerical simulations show that the ancient minor merger event can significantly flatten the original radial metallicity gradient of the FGTD, in particular, in the outer part, and also can be responsible for migration of inner metal-rich stars into the outer part (R > 10 kpc). The simulations show that the central region of the thick disk can develop a bar due to dynamical effects of a separate bar in the thin disk. Whether or not rotational velocities (V φ ) can correlate with metallicities ([Fe/H]) for the simulated thick disks depends on the initial metallicity gradients of the FGTDs. The simulated orbital eccentricity distributions in the thick disk for models with higher mass ratios (∼0.2) and lower orbital eccentricities (∼0.5) of minor mergers are in good agreement with the corresponding observations. The simulated V φ -|z| relation of the thick disk in models with low orbital inclination angles of mergers are also in good agreement with the latest observational results. The vertical metallicity gradient of the simulated thick disk is rather flat or very weakly negative in the solar neighborhood. Our Galactic

Effect of thermoplastic appliance thickness on initial stress distribution in periodontal ligament

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

De-Shin Liu

2015-04-01

Full Text Available A numerical investigation into the initial stress distribution induced within the periodontal ligament by thermoplastic appliances with different thicknesses is performed. Based on the plaster model of a 25-year-old male patient, a finite element model of the maxillary lateral incisors and their supporting structures is constructed. In addition, four finite element models of thermoplastic appliances with different thicknesses in the range of 0.5–1.25 mm are also constructed based on the same plaster model. Finite element analysis simulations are performed to examine the effects of the force delivered by the thermoplastic appliances on the stress response of the periodontal ligament during the elastic recovery process. The results show that the stress induced in the periodontal ligament increases with an increasing appliance thickness. For example, the stress triples from 0.0012 to 0.0038 MPa as the appliance thickness is increased from 0.75 to 1.25 mm. The results presented in this study provide a useful insight into as a result of the compressive and tensile stresses induced by thermoplastic appliances of different thicknesses. Moreover, the results enable the periodontal ligament stress levels produced by thermoplastic appliances of different thicknesses to be reliably estimated.

In situ diagnostic of water distribution in thickness direction of MEA by neutron imaging. Focused on characteristics of water distribution in gas diffusion layer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tasaki, Yutaka; Ichikawa, Yasushi; Kobo, Norio; Shinohara, Kazuhiko; Boillat, Pierre; Kramer, Denis; Scherer, Gunther G.; Lehmann, Eberhard H.

2008-01-01

The mass transfer characteristics of gas diffusion layer (GDL) are closely related to cell performance in PEFC. In this study, In situ diagnostic of water distribution in thickness direction of MEA by Neutron Imaging has been carried out for three MEAs with different GDLs on cathode side as well as I-V characteristics. It was confirmed that this method is useful for analyzing water distribution in thickness direction of MEA. The relationship between I-V characteristics and liquid water distribution has been studied. (author)

Improved Extreme-Scenario Extraction Method For The Economic Dispatch Of Active Distribution Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Yipu; Ai, Xiaomeng; Fang, Jiakun

2017-01-01

) of active distribution network with renewables. The extreme scenarios are selected from the historical data using the improved minimum volume enclosing ellipsoid (MVEE) algorithm to guarantee the security of system operation while avoid frequently switching the transformer tap. It is theoretically proved...

Aerosol Size Distributions During ACE-Asia: Retrievals From Optical Thickness and Comparisons With In-situ Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Kuzmanoski, M.; Box, M.; Box, G. P.; Schmidt, B.; Russell, P. B.; Redemann, J.; Livingston, J. M.; Wang, J.; Flagan, R. C.; Seinfeld, J. H.

2002-12-01

As part of the ACE-Asia experiment, conducted off the coast of China, Korea and Japan in spring 2001, measurements of aerosol physical, chemical and radiative characteristics were performed aboard the Twin Otter aircraft. Of particular importance for this paper were spectral measurements of aerosol optical thickness obtained at 13 discrete wavelengths, within 354-1558 nm wavelength range, using the AATS-14 sunphotometer. Spectral aerosol optical thickness can be used to obtain information about particle size distribution. In this paper, we use sunphotometer measurements to retrieve size distribution of aerosols during ACE-Asia. We focus on four cases in which layers influenced by different air masses were identified. Aerosol optical thickness of each layer was inverted using two different techniques - constrained linear inversion and multimodal. In the constrained linear inversion algorithm no assumption about the mathematical form of the distribution to be retrieved is made. Conversely, the multimodal technique assumes that aerosol size distribution is represented as a linear combination of few lognormal modes with predefined values of mode radii and geometric standard deviations. Amplitudes of modes are varied to obtain best fit of sum of optical thicknesses due to individual modes to sunphotometer measurements. In this paper we compare the results of these two retrieval methods. In addition, we present comparisons of retrieved size distributions with in situ measurements taken using an aerodynamic particle sizer and differential mobility analyzer system aboard the Twin Otter aircraft.

Regolith thickness over Sinus Iridum: Results from morphology and size-frequency distribution of small impact craters

Science.gov (United States)

Fa, Wenzhe; Liu, Tiantian; Zhu, Meng-Hua; Haruyama, Junichi

2014-08-01

High-resolution optical images returned from recent lunar missions provide a new chance for estimation of lunar regolith thickness using morphology and the size-frequency distribution of small impact craters. In this study, regolith thickness over the Sinus Iridum region is estimated using Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) Narrow Angle Cameras (NACs) images. A revised relationship between crater geometry and regolith thickness is proposed based on old experimental data that takes into considering the effect of the illumination angle of the images. In total, 227 high-resolution LROC NAC images are used, and 378,556 impact craters with diameters from 4.2 to 249.8 m are counted, and their morphologies are identified. Our results show that 50% of the Sinus Iridum region has a regolith thickness between 5.1 and 10.7 m, and the mean and median regolith thicknesses are 8.5 and 8.0 m, respectively. There are substantial regional variations in the regolith thickness, with its median value varying from 2.6 to 12.0 m for most regions. Local variations of regolith thickness are found to be correlated with the lunar surface age: the older the surface, the greater the thickness. In addition, sporadically distributed impact ejecta and crater rays are associated with relatively larger regolith thickness, which might result from excavation and transport of materials during the formation of the secondaries of Copernican-aged craters. Our estimated regolith thickness can help with future analysis of Chang'E-3 lunar penetrating radar echoes and studies of the subsurface stratigraphic structure of the Moon.

Investigating the effect of tablet thickness and punch curvature on density distribution using finite elements method.

Science.gov (United States)

Diarra, Harona; Mazel, Vincent; Busignies, Virginie; Tchoreloff, Pierre

2015-09-30

Finite elements method was used to study the influence of tablet thickness and punch curvature on the density distribution inside convex faced (CF) tablets. The modeling of the process was conducted on 2 pharmaceutical excipients (anhydrous calcium phosphate and microcrystalline cellulose) by using Drucker-Prager Cap model in Abaqus(®) software. The parameters of the model were obtained from experimental tests. Several punch shapes based on industrial standards were used. A flat-faced (FF) punch and 3 convex faced (CF) punches (8R11, 8R8 and 8R6) with a diameter of 8mm were chosen. Different tablet thicknesses were studied at a constant compression force. The simulation of the compaction of CF tablets with increasing thicknesses showed an important change on the density distribution inside the tablet. For smaller thicknesses, low density zones are located toward the center. The density is not uniform inside CF tablets and the center of the 2 faces appears with low density whereas the distribution inside FF tablets is almost independent of the tablet thickness. These results showed that FF and CF tablets, even obtained at the same compression force, do not have the same density at the center of the compact. As a consequence differences in tensile strength, as measured by diametral compression, are expected. This was confirmed by experimental tests. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of exposure scenarios on intentional microbiological contamination in a drinking water distribution network.

Science.gov (United States)

Schijven, Jack; Forêt, Jean Marie; Chardon, Jurgen; Teunis, Peter; Bouwknegt, Martijn; Tangena, Ben

2016-06-01

Drinking water distribution networks are vulnerable to accidental or intentional contamination events. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of seeding duration and concentration, exposure pathway (ingestion via drinking of water and tooth brushing and inhalation by taking a shower) and pathogen infectivity on exposure and infection risk in the case of an intentional pathogenic contamination in a drinking water distribution network. Seeding of a pathogen for 10 min and 120 min, and subsequent spreading through a drinking water distribution network were simulated. For exposure via drinking, actual data on drinking events and volumes were used. Ingestion of a small volume of water by tooth brushing twice a day by every person in the network was assumed. Inhalation of contaminated aerosol droplets took place when taking a shower. Infection risks were estimated for pathogens with low (r = 0.0001) and high (r = 0.1) infectivity. In the served population (48 000 persons) and within 24 h, about 1400 persons were exposed to the pathogen by ingestion of water in the 10-min seeding scenario and about 3400 persons in the 120-min scenario. The numbers of exposed persons via tooth brushing were about the same as via drinking of water. Showering caused (inhalation) exposure in about 450 persons in the 10-min scenario and about 1500 in the 120-min scenario. Regardless of pathogen infectivity, if the seeding concentration is 10(6) pathogens per litre or more, infection risks are close to one. Exposure by taking a shower is of relevance if the pathogen is highly infectious via inhalation. A longer duration of the seeding of a pathogen increases the probability of exposure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fluid transfer and vein thickness distribution in high and low temperature hydrothermal systems at shallow crustal level in southern Tuscany (Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francesco Mazzarini

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Geometric analysis of vein systems hosted in upper crustal rocks and developed in high and low temperature hydrothermal systems is presented. The high temperature hydrothermal system consists of tourmaline-rich veins hosted within the contact aureole of the upper Miocene Porto Azzurro pluton in the eastern Elba Island. The low temperature hydrothermal system consists of calcite-rich veins hosted within the Oligocene sandstones of the Tuscan Nappe, exposed along the coast in southern Tuscany. Vein thickness distribution is here used as proxy for inferring some hydraulic properties (transmissivity of the fluid circulation at the time of veins’ formation. We derive estimations of average thickness of veins by using the observed distributions. In the case of power law thickness distributions, the lower the scaling exponent of the distribution the higher the overall transmissivity. Indeed, power law distributions characterised by high scaling exponents have transmissivity three order of magnitude lower than negative exponential thickness distribution. Simple observations of vein thickness may thus provides some clues on the transmissivity in hydrothermal systems.

Surrounding rock abutment pressure distribution and thickness effect of dynamic catastrophic in fully mechanized sublevel mining stope

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xie, G.; Yang, K.; Chang, J.; Wang, L. [Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan (China)

2006-12-15

Numerical simulation was carried out to analyse the distribution of surrounding rock stress with coal seams of different thickness (3.0, 5.4, 8.0, 12.0 m) based on engineering geology and exploitation technology of the 151(3) fully mechanized sublevel caving face in Xieqiao colliery. The research indicates that the variation of abutment pressure has obvious difference in coal seams of different thickness. The effect of abutment pressure distribution in seams of different thickness on coal-methane outbursts was analysed. With an increase in thickness of the caving seam, the research illustrates that the elastic energy resilience is reduced and the capability of resisting damage and deformation is strengthened in coal around the stope. The results show that fully mechanized sublevel caving slows down dynamic catastrophes. 7 refs., 4 figs.

The Effect of Composite Thickness on the Stress Distribution Pattern of Restored Premolar Teeth with Cusp Reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Panahandeh, Narges; Torabzadeh, Hassan; Ziaee, Nargess; Mahdian, Mina; Tootiaee, Bahman; Ghasemi, Amir

2017-07-01

Different thicknesses of restorative material can alter the stress distribution pattern in remaining tooth structure. The assumption is that a thicker composite restoration will induce a higher fracture resistance. Therefore, the present study evaluated the effect of composite thickness on stress distribution in a restored premolar with cusp reduction. A 3D solid model of a maxillary second premolar was prepared and meshed. MOD cavities were designed with different cusp reduction thicknesses (0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2.5 mm). Cavities were restored with Valux Plus composite. They were loaded with 200 N force on the occlusal surface in the direction of the long axis. Von Mises stresses were evaluated with Abaqus software. Stress increased from occlusal to gingival and was maximum in the cervical region. The stressed area in the palatal cusp was more than that of the buccal cusp. Increasing the thickness of composite altered the shear stress to compressive stress in the occlusal area of the teeth. The model with 2.5 mm cusp reduction exhibited the most even stress distribution. © 2015 by the American College of Prosthodontists.

Scenario analysis to account for photovoltaic generation uncertainty in distribution grid reconfiguration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chittur Ramaswamy, Parvathy; Deconinck, Geert; Pillai, Jayakrishnan Radhakrishna

2013-01-01

This paper considers hourly reconfiguration of a low voltage distribution network with the objectives of minimizing power loss and voltage deviation. The uncertainty in photovoltaic (PV) generation which in turn will affect the optimum configuration is tackled with the help of scenario analysis. ......-dominated solutions, demonstrating their trade-offs. Finally, the best compromise solution can be selected depending on the decision maker's requirement....

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuezhen Ge

Full Text Available As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier (Coleoptera: Curculionidae has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981-2010 and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011-2040 provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0. Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

Energy and angular distribution of electrons after transmission of thick layers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kreyling, H.

1975-01-01

In this work, the behaviour of electrons going through material-layers is studied. For a layer-thickness where the theories of multiple-scattering are no longer valid, a Monte-Carlo-method is presented for the calculation of energy distributions as a function of scattering-angle. Plastic-scintillator-material (NE 102 A produced by Nuclear Enterprises Ltd.) was bombarded by electrons with energies between 0.5 and 2.0 MeV and the energy-distributions of the electrons, scatterd in the layer, were measured as a function of the scattering-angle. With the aid of the Monte-Carlo-method developed in this paper, energy distributions were calculated as a function of scattering-angle for the two absorber materials aluminium (single-element material) and NE 102 A (chemical compound of C, N, H, O). (orig./WL) [de

Modeling Malaria Vector Distribution under Climate Change Scenarios in Kenya

Science.gov (United States)

Ngaina, J. N.

2017-12-01

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control strategies for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, in Kenya, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of future climate change on locally dominant Anopheles vectors including Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles merus, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles pharoensis and Anopheles nili. Environmental data (Climate, Land cover and elevation) and primary empirical geo-located species-presence data were identified. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climates. The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for Anopheles gambiae, An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. pharoensis would increase under all two scenarios for mid-century (2016-2045), but decrease for end century (2071-2100). An increase in ESA of An. Funestus was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid-century. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where Anopheles malaria vectors may already exist, but has not yet been detected and the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to. Moreover, it will help guide future sampling location decisions, help with the planning of vector control suites nationally and encourage broader research inquiry into vector species niche modeling

Experimental Energy Consumption of Frame Slotted ALOHA and Distributed Queuing for Data Collection Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pere Tuset-Peiro

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Data collection is a key scenario for the Internet of Things because it enables gathering sensor data from distributed nodes that use low-power and long-range wireless technologies to communicate in a single-hop approach. In this kind of scenario, the network is composed of one coordinator that covers a particular area and a large number of nodes, typically hundreds or thousands, that transmit data to the coordinator upon request. Considering this scenario, in this paper we experimentally validate the energy consumption of two Medium Access Control (MAC protocols, Frame Slotted ALOHA (FSA and Distributed Queuing (DQ. We model both protocols as a state machine and conduct experiments to measure the average energy consumption in each state and the average number of times that a node has to be in each state in order to transmit a data packet to the coordinator. The results show that FSA is more energy efficient than DQ if the number of nodes is known a priori because the number of slots per frame can be adjusted accordingly. However, in such scenarios the number of nodes cannot be easily anticipated, leading to additional packet collisions and a higher energy consumption due to retransmissions. Contrarily, DQ does not require to know the number of nodes in advance because it is able to efficiently construct an ad hoc network schedule for each collection round. This kind of a schedule ensures that there are no packet collisions during data transmission, thus leading to an energy consumption reduction above 10% compared to FSA.

Experimental energy consumption of Frame Slotted ALOHA and Distributed Queuing for data collection scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Tuset-Peiro, Pere; Vazquez-Gallego, Francisco; Alonso-Zarate, Jesus; Alonso, Luis; Vilajosana, Xavier

2014-07-24

Data collection is a key scenario for the Internet of Things because it enables gathering sensor data from distributed nodes that use low-power and long-range wireless technologies to communicate in a single-hop approach. In this kind of scenario, the network is composed of one coordinator that covers a particular area and a large number of nodes, typically hundreds or thousands, that transmit data to the coordinator upon request. Considering this scenario, in this paper we experimentally validate the energy consumption of two Medium Access Control (MAC) protocols, Frame Slotted ALOHA (FSA) and Distributed Queuing (DQ). We model both protocols as a state machine and conduct experiments to measure the average energy consumption in each state and the average number of times that a node has to be in each state in order to transmit a data packet to the coordinator. The results show that FSA is more energy efficient than DQ if the number of nodes is known a priori because the number of slots per frame can be adjusted accordingly. However, in such scenarios the number of nodes cannot be easily anticipated, leading to additional packet collisions and a higher energy consumption due to retransmissions. Contrarily, DQ does not require to know the number of nodes in advance because it is able to efficiently construct an ad hoc network schedule for each collection round. This kind of a schedule ensures that there are no packet collisions during data transmission, thus leading to an energy consumption reduction above 10% compared to FSA.

Intermediate layer thickness dependence on switching field distribution in perpendicular recording media

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sbiaa, R.; Gandhi, R.; Srinivasan, K.; Piramanayagam, S.N.; Seoh, R.M.

2009-01-01

The effect of intermediate layer (IL) thickness on crystallographic texture and magnetic properties of CoCrPtSiO 2 granular perpendicular recording media was investigated with switching field distribution (SFD) as the focus. Even though the c-axis orientation of the Co-based recording layer (RL) broadens with the reduction of IL thickness, the SFD becomes narrower. This result demonstrates that the intrinsic SFD is not directly dependent on c-axis orientation of the recording layer but instead dependent on the magnitude of exchange coupling. It is thus possible to have a medium with thin IL and narrow SFD. This is desirable for bit-patterned media (BPM), where highly exchange-coupled grains are required.

Simulation and experimental determination of the macro-scale layer thickness distribution of electrodeposited Cu-line patterns on a wafer substrate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pantleon, Karen; Bossche, Bart van den; Purcar, Marius

2005-01-01

The impact of adjacent patterned zones with different active area densities on the current density and electrodeposited layer thickness distribution over a wafer substrate is examined, both by experiment and numerical simulation. The experiments consist in running an acid copper plating process o......) approach to compute the current density distribution over the electrodes. Experimental and computed layer thickness distributions are in very good agreement.......The impact of adjacent patterned zones with different active area densities on the current density and electrodeposited layer thickness distribution over a wafer substrate is examined, both by experiment and numerical simulation. The experiments consist in running an acid copper plating process...... on the patterned wafer, and layer thickness measurements by means of X-ray fluorescence (XRF) and atomic force microscopy (AFM). The simulations are based on a potential model approach taking into account electrolyte ohmic drop and electrode polarization effects, combined to a boundary element method (BEM...

Potential distribution of Podocnemis lewyana (Reptilia: Podocnemididae) and its possible fluctuation under different global climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortiz Yusty, Carlos; Restrepo, Adriana; Paez, Vivian P

2014-01-01

We implemented a species distribution modelling approach to establish the potential distribution of Podocnemis lewyana, to explore the climatic factors that may influence the species' distribution and to evaluate possible changes in distribution under future climate scenarios. The distribution models predicted a continuous distribution from south to north along the Magdalena River, from Rivera and Palermo in the Department of Huila to the departments of Atlantico and Magdalena in the north. Temperature was the variable most influential in the distribution of P. lewyana; this species tends to be present in warm regions with low temperature variability. The distribution model predicted an increase in the geographic range of P. lewyana under climate change scenarios. However, taking into account the habitat preferences of this species and its strong association with water, this result should be treated with caution since the model considered only terrestrial climatic variables. Given the life history characteristics of this species (temperature dependent sex determination, high pivotal temperature and a very narrow transition range) and the negative effect of changes in hydrological regimes on embryo survival, expansion of the potential distribution of P. lewyana in the future does not mean that the species will not be affected by global climate change.

The influence of cathode excavation of cathodic arc evaporator on thickness uniformity and erosion products angle distribution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. V. Duhopel'nikov

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Cathodic arc evaporators are used for coating with functional films. Prolonged or buttend evaporators may be used for this purposes. In butt-end evaporator the cathode spots move continuously on the cathode work surface and evaporate cathode material. High depth excavation profile forms on the cathode work surface while the thick coating precipitation (tens or hundreds of microns. The cathode excavation profile is shaped like a “cup” with high walls for electrostatic discharge stabilization systems with axial magnetic fields. Cathode spots move on the bottom of the “cup”. It is very likely that high “cup” walls are formed as a result of lasting work time influence on the uniformity of precipitated films.In the present work the influence of excavation profile walls height on the uniformity of precipitated coating was carried out. The high profile walls are formed due to lasting work of DC vacuum arc evaporator. The cathode material used for tests was 3003 aluminum alloy. The extended substrate was placed parallel to the cathode work surface. Thickness distribution along the substrate length with the new cathode was obtained after 6 hours and after 12 hours of continuous operation.The thickness distribution of precipitated coating showed that the cathode excavation has an influence on the angular distribution of the matter escaping the cathode. It can be clearly seen from the normalized dependence coating thickness vs the distance from the substrate center. Also the angular distribution of the matter flow from the cathode depending on the cathode working time was obtained. It was shown that matter flow from the cathode differs from the LambertKnudsen law. The more the cathode excavation the more this difference.So, cathode excavation profile has an influence on the uniformity of precipitated coating and it is necessary to take in account the cathode excavation profile while coating the thick films.

Improvement of the thickness distribution of a quartz crystal wafer by numerically controlled plasma chemical vaporization machining

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shibahara, Masafumi; Yamamura, Kazuya; Sano, Yasuhisa; Sugiyama, Tsuyoshi; Endo, Katsuyoshi; Mori, Yuzo

2005-01-01

To improve the thickness uniformity of thin quartz crystal wafer, a new machining process that utilizes an atmospheric pressure plasma was developed. In an atmospheric pressure plasma process, since the kinetic energy of ions that impinge to the wafer surface is small and the density of the reactive species is large, high-efficiency machining without damage is realized, and the thickness distribution is corrected by numerically controlled scanning of the quartz wafer to the localized high-density plasma. By using our developed machining process, the thickness distribution of an AT cut wafer was improved from 174 nm [peak to valley (p-v)] to 67 nm (p-v) within 94 s. Since there are no unwanted spurious modes in the machined quartz wafer, it was proved that the developed machining method has a high machining efficiency without any damage

THE ANGULAR DISTRIBUTION OF Lyα RESONANT PHOTONS EMERGING FROM AN OPTICALLY THICK MEDIUM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Yang; Shu Chiwang; Roy, Ishani; Fang Lizhi

2013-01-01

We investigate the angular distribution of Lyα photons scattering or emerging from an optically thick medium. Since the evolution of specific intensity I in frequency space and angular space are coupled with each other, we first develop the WENO numerical solver to find the time-dependent solutions of the integro-differential equation of I in frequency and angular space simultaneously. We first show that the solutions with the Eddington approximation, which assume that I is linearly dependent on the angular variable μ, yield similar frequency profiles of the photon flux as those without the Eddington approximation. However, the solutions of the μ distribution evolution are significantly different from those given by the Eddington approximation. First, the angular distribution of I is found to be substantially dependent on the frequency of the photons. For photons with the resonant frequency ν 0 , I contains only a linear term of μ. For photons with frequencies at the double peaks of the flux, the μ-distribution is highly anisotropic; most photons are emitted radially forward. Moreover, either at ν 0 or at the double peaks, the μ distributions actually are independent of the initial μ distribution of photons of the source. This is because the photons with frequencies either at ν 0 or the double peaks undergo the process of forgetting their initial conditions due to resonant scattering. We also show that the optically thick medium is a collimator of photons at the double peaks. Photons from the double peaks form a forward beam with a very small opening angle.

Comparison of sea-ice freeboard and thickness distributions from aircraft data and cryosat-2

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

accurate range measurements. During the CryoSat Validation Experiment (CryoVEx) 2011 in the Lincoln Sea, Cryosat-2 underpasses were accomplished with two aircraft, which carried an airborne laser-scanner, a radar altimeter and an electromagnetic induction device for direct sea-ice thickness retrieval. Both...... aircraft flew in close formation at the same time of a CryoSat-2 overpass. This is a study about the comparison of the sea-ice freeboard and thickness distribution of airborne validation and CryoSat-2 measurements within the multi-year sea-ice region of the Lincoln Sea in spring, with respect...

Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

2016-02-01

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination.

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J W; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

2016-02-12

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

Correlation between blister skin thickness, the maximum in the damage-energy distribution, and the projected ranges of He+ ions in metals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Das, S.K.; Kaminsky, M.; Fenske, G.

1976-01-01

The skin thickness of blisters formed on aluminium by helium-ion irradiation at room temperature for energies from 100 to 1000 keV have been measured. The projected ranges of helium ions in Al for this energy range were calculated using either Brice's formalism (Brice, D.K., 1972, Phys. Rev., vol. A6, 1791) or the one given by Schioett (Schioett, H.E., 1966, K. Danske Vidensk.Selsk., Mat.-Fys. Meddr., vol.35, No.9). For the damage-energy distribution Brice's formalism was used. The measured skin thickness values are smaller than the calculated values of the maxima in the projected range distributions over the entire energy range studied. These results on the ductile metal aluminium are contrasted with the results on relatively brittle refractory metals V and Nb where the measured skin thickness values correlate more closely with the maxima in the projected range probability distributions than with the maxima in the damage-energy distributions. Processes affecting the blister skin fracture and the skin thickness are discussed. (author)

Self-interacting dark matter constraints in a thick dark disk scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Vattis, Kyriakos; Koushiappas, Savvas M.

2018-05-01

A thick dark matter disk is predicted in cold dark matter simulations as the outcome of the interaction between accreted satellites and the stellar disk in Milky Way-sized halos. We study the effects of a self-interacting thick dark disk on the energetic neutrino flux from the Sun. We find that for particle masses between 100 GeV and 1 TeV and dark matter annihilation to τ+τ-, either the self-interaction may not be strong enough to solve the small-scale structure motivation or a dark disk cannot be present in the Milky Way.

Kapton charging characteristics: Effects of material thickness and electron-energy distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Williamson, W. S.; Dulgeroff, C. R.; Hymann, J.; Viswanathan, R.

1985-01-01

Charging characteristics of polyimide (Kapton) of varying thicknesses under irradiation by a very-low-curent-density electron beam, with the back surface of the sample grounded are reported. These charging characteristics are in good agreement with a simple analytical model which predicts that in thin samples at low current density, sample surface potential is limited by conduction leakage through the bulk material. The charging of Kapton in a low-current-density electron beam in which the beam energy was modulated to simulate Maxwellian and biMaxwellian distribution functions is measured.

Simulation on the Effect of Bottle Wall Thickness Distribution using Blow Moulding Technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suraya, S; Azman, M D; Fatchurrohman, N; Jaafar, A A; Yusoff, A R

2016-01-01

The aims of this study are to assess the deformation behavior of a polymeric material during a blow moulding process. Transient computations of two dimensional model of a PP bottle were performed using ANSYS Polyflow computer code to predict the wall thickness distribution at four different parison's diameter; 8mm, 10mm, 18mm, and 20mm. Effects on the final wall thickness diameter and time step are studied. The simulated data shows that the inflation performance degrades with increasing parison diameter. It is concluded that the blow moulding process using 10mm parison successfully meet the product processing requirements. Factors that contribute to the variation in deformation behaviour of the plastic during the manufacturing process are discussed. (paper)

The effects of carbon distribution and thickness on the lithium storage properties of carbon-coated SnO_2 hollow nanofibers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou, Huimin; Li, Zhiyong; Qiu, Yiping; Xia, Xin

2016-01-01

To alleviate the enormous volume change problem of tin-based anodes for lithium ion batteries (LIBs), carbon-coated tin dioxide (SnO_2) hollow nanofibers were prepared by means of single-spinneret electrospinning followed by calcination and hydrothermal treatment. By varying the concentration of glucose and the reaction time during the hydrothermal coating process, the final product with different carbon distribution and thickness could be obtained. Galvanostatic charge/discharge was carried out to evaluate them as potential anode materials for LIBs. It was shown that the main effect of carbon distribution was to control the capacity retention rate, and the carbon thickness played the important role in lithium insertion/extraction properties. The optimum composite nanofibers could be prepared with glucose concentration of 10 mg/ml and hydrothermal time of 20 h, the carbon content and the specific surface area of which were 26.15% and 29.4 m"2/g, respectively. And this anode with both the carbon core and deposited thin carbon skin was able to deliver a high reversible capacity of 704.6 mAhg"−"1 and the capacity retention could retain 68.2% after 80 cycles. - Graphical abstract: Based on the electrochemical properties of carbon-coated hollow SnO2 anodes, how the carbon distribution and carbon thickness affect their performance are disscussed in groups. - Highlights: • The hollow SnO_2 nanofibers were carbon-coated by hydrothermal process. • The controlled distribution and thickness of carbon layer can be obtained. • The main effect of carbon distribution was to control the capacity retention rate. • The carbon thickness played the important role in lithium insertion/extraction properties.

Distributed ice thickness and glacier volume in southern South America

Science.gov (United States)

Carrivick, Jonathan L.; Davies, Bethan J.; James, William H. M.; Quincey, Duncan J.; Glasser, Neil F.

2016-11-01

South American glaciers, including those in Patagonia, presently contribute the largest amount of meltwater to sea level rise per unit glacier area in the world. Yet understanding of the mechanisms behind the associated glacier mass balance changes remains unquantified partly because models are hindered by a lack of knowledge of subglacial topography. This study applied a perfect-plasticity model along glacier centre-lines to derive a first-order estimate of ice thickness and then interpolated these thickness estimates across glacier areas. This produced the first complete coverage of distributed ice thickness, bed topography and volume for 617 glaciers between 41°S and 55°S and in 24 major glacier regions. Maximum modelled ice thicknesses reach 1631 m ± 179 m in the South Patagonian Icefield (SPI), 1315 m ± 145 m in the North Patagonian Icefield (NPI) and 936 m ± 103 m in Cordillera Darwin. The total modelled volume of ice is 1234.6 km3 ± 246.8 km3 for the NPI, 4326.6 km3 ± 865.2 km3 for the SPI and 151.9 km3 ± 30.38 km3 for Cordillera Darwin. The total volume was modelled to be 5955 km3 ± 1191 km3, which equates to 5458.3 Gt ± 1091.6 Gt ice and to 15.08 mm ± 3.01 mm sea level equivalent (SLE). However, a total area of 655 km2 contains ice below sea level and there are 282 individual overdeepenings with a mean depth of 38 m and a total volume if filled with water to the brim of 102 km3. Adjusting the potential SLE for the ice volume below sea level and for the maximum potential storage of meltwater in these overdeepenings produces a maximum potential sea level rise (SLR) of 14.71 mm ± 2.94 mm. We provide a calculation of the present ice volume per major river catchment and we discuss likely changes to southern South America glaciers in the future. The ice thickness and subglacial topography modelled by this study will facilitate future studies of ice dynamics and glacier isostatic adjustment, and will be important for projecting water resources and

Ice volume distribution and implications on runoff projections in a glacierized catchment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Gabbi

2012-12-01

Full Text Available A dense network of helicopter-based ground-penetrating radar (GPR measurements was used to determine the ice-thickness distribution in the Mauvoisin region. The comprehensive set of ice-thickness measurements was combined with an ice-thickness estimation approach for an accurate determination of the bedrock. A total ice volume of 3.69 ± 0.31 km³ and a maximum ice thickness of 290 m were found. The ice-thickness values were then employed as input for a combined glacio-hydrological model forced by most recent regional climate scenarios. This model provided glacier evolution and runoff projections for the period 2010–2100. Runoff projections of the measured initial ice volume distribution show an increase in annual runoff of 4% in the next two decades, followed by a persistent runoff decrease until 2100. Finally, we checked the influence of the ice-thickness distribution on runoff projections. Our analyses revealed that reliable estimates of the ice volume are essential for modelling future glacier and runoff evolution. Wrong estimations of the total ice volume might even lead to deviations of the predicted general runoff trend.

Genetic diversity and distribution of Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under climate change scenarios in West Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Duque-Lazo, Joaquín; Durka, Walter; Hauenschild, Frank; Schnitzler, Jan; Michalak, Ingo; Ogundipe, Oluwatoyin Temitayo; Muellner-Riehl, Alexandra Nora

2018-01-01

Climate change is predicted to impact species’ genetic diversity and distribution. We used Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton, an economically important species distributed in the Sudano-Sahelian savannah belt of West Africa, to investigate the impact of climate change on intraspecific genetic diversity and distribution. We used ten nuclear and two plastid microsatellite markers to assess genetic variation, population structure and differentiation across thirteen sites in West Africa. We projected suitable range, and potential impact of climate change on genetic diversity using a maximum entropy approach, under four different climate change scenarios. We found higher genetic and haplotype diversity at both nuclear and plastid markers than previously reported. Genetic differentiation was strong for chloroplast and moderate for the nuclear genome. Both genomes indicated three spatially structured genetic groups. The distribution of Senegalia senegal is strongly correlated with extractable nitrogen, coarse fragments, soil organic carbon stock, precipitation of warmest and coldest quarter and mean temperature of driest quarter. We predicted 40.96 to 6.34 per cent of the current distribution to favourably support the species’ ecological requirements under future climate scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change is going to affect the population genetic structure of Senegalia senegal, and that patterns of genetic diversity are going to influence the species’ adaptive response to climate change. Our study contributes to the growing evidence predicting the loss of economically relevant plants in West Africa in the next decades due to climate change. PMID:29659603

Predicted altitudinal shifts and reduced spatial distribution of Leishmania infantum vector species under climate change scenarios in Colombia.

Science.gov (United States)

González, Camila; Paz, Andrea; Ferro, Cristina

2014-01-01

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is caused by the trypanosomatid parasite Leishmania infantum (=Leishmania chagasi), and is epidemiologically relevant due to its wide geographic distribution, the number of annual cases reported and the increase in its co-infection with HIV. Two vector species have been incriminated in the Americas: Lutzomyia longipalpis and Lutzomyia evansi. In Colombia, L. longipalpis is distributed along the Magdalena River Valley while L. evansi is only found in the northern part of the Country. Regarding the epidemiology of the disease, in Colombia the incidence of VL has decreased over the last few years without any intervention being implemented. Additionally, changes in transmission cycles have been reported with urban transmission occurring in the Caribbean Coast. In Europe and North America climate change seems to be driving a latitudinal shift of leishmaniasis transmission. Here, we explored the spatial distribution of the two known vector species of L. infantum in Colombia and projected its future distribution into climate change scenarios to establish the expansion potential of the disease. An updated database including L. longipalpis and L. evansi collection records from Colombia was compiled. Ecological niche models were performed for each species using the Maxent software and 13 Worldclim bioclimatic coverages. Projections were made for the pessimistic CSIRO A2 scenario, which predicts the higher increase in temperature due to non-emission reduction, and the optimistic Hadley B2 Scenario predicting the minimum increase in temperature. The database contained 23 records for L. evansi and 39 records for L. longipalpis, distributed along the Magdalena River Valley and the Caribbean Coast, where the potential distribution areas of both species were also predicted by Maxent. Climate change projections showed a general overall reduction in the spatial distribution of the two vector species, promoting a shift in altitudinal distribution for L

Simulation of Stress Distribution in a Thick- Walled Bushing Produced by Die-Casting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pisarek B.P.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Metallographic investigations and a computer simulation of stresses in a gravity die-casting bushing were performed. Simulation of the casting process, solidification of the thick-walled bushing and calculations of the stress was performed using MAGMA5.3 software. The size variability of phases κII affecting the formation of phase stresses σf, depending on the location of the metallographic test area, was identified. The distribution of thermal σt and shrinkage stresses σs, depending on the location of the control point SC in the bushing's volume, was estimated. Probably the nature of these stresses will change slightly even after machining. This can cause variations in operating characteristics (friction coefficient, wear. Due to the strong inhomogeneity of the stress distribution in the bushing's casting, it is necessary to perform further tests of the possibility to conduct thermal treatment guaranteeing homogenization of the internal stresses in the casting, as well as to introduce changes in the bushing' s construction and the casting technology. The paper presents the continuation of the results of research aimed at identifying the causes of defects in the thick-walled bushing, die-casting made of CuAl10Fe5Ni5Cr aluminium bronze.

Thermal modelling of normal distributed nanoparticles through thickness in an inorganic material matrix

Science.gov (United States)

Latré, S.; Desplentere, F.; De Pooter, S.; Seveno, D.

2017-10-01

Nanoscale materials showing superior thermal properties have raised the interest of the building industry. By adding these materials to conventional construction materials, it is possible to decrease the total thermal conductivity by almost one order of magnitude. This conductivity is mainly influenced by the dispersion quality within the matrix material. At the industrial scale, the main challenge is to control this dispersion to reduce or even eliminate thermal bridges. This allows to reach an industrially relevant process to balance out the high material cost and their superior thermal insulation properties. Therefore, a methodology is required to measure and describe these nanoscale distributions within the inorganic matrix material. These distributions are either random or normally distributed through thickness within the matrix material. We show that the influence of these distributions is meaningful and modifies the thermal conductivity of the building material. Hence, this strategy will generate a thermal model allowing to predict the thermal behavior of the nanoscale particles and their distributions. This thermal model will be validated by the hot wire technique. For the moment, a good correlation is found between the numerical results and experimental data for a randomly distributed form of nanoparticles in all directions.

Correlation between blister skin thickness, the maximum in the damage-energy distribution, and projected ranges of He+ ions in metals: Nb

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaminsky, M.; Das, S.K.; Fenske, G.

1975-01-01

The skin thicknesses of blisters formed on niobium by helium-ion irradiation at room temperature for energies from 100 to 1500 keV have been measured. The projected ranges of helium ions in Nb for this energy range were calculated using either Brice's formalism or the one given by Schiott. For the damage-energy distribution Brice's formalism was used. The measured skin-thickness values corrleate more closely with the maxima in the projected-range probability distributions than with the maxima in the damage-energy distributions. The results are consistent with our model for blister formation and rupture proposed earlier

78 FR 72534 - Policy Statement on the Principles for Development and Distribution of Annual Stress Test Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

2013-12-03

... FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE CORPORATION 12 CFR Part 325 Policy Statement on the Principles for... stress test horizon. The variables specified for each scenario generally address economic activity, asset..., 2012, that articulated the principles the FDIC will apply to develop and distribute the stress test...

The effect of wall thickness distribution on mechanical reliability and strength in unidirectional porous ceramics

Science.gov (United States)

Seuba, Jordi; Deville, Sylvain; Guizard, Christian; Stevenson, Adam J.

2016-01-01

Macroporous ceramics exhibit an intrinsic strength variability caused by the random distribution of defects in their structure. However, the precise role of microstructural features, other than pore volume, on reliability is still unknown. Here, we analyze the applicability of the Weibull analysis to unidirectional macroporous yttria-stabilized-zirconia (YSZ) prepared by ice-templating. First, we performed crush tests on samples with controlled microstructural features with the loading direction parallel to the porosity. The compressive strength data were fitted using two different fitting techniques, ordinary least squares and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo, to evaluate whether Weibull statistics are an adequate descriptor of the strength distribution. The statistical descriptors indicated that the strength data are well described by the Weibull statistical approach, for both fitting methods used. Furthermore, we assess the effect of different microstructural features (volume, size, densification of the walls, and morphology) on Weibull modulus and strength. We found that the key microstructural parameter controlling reliability is wall thickness. In contrast, pore volume is the main parameter controlling the strength. The highest Weibull modulus (?) and mean strength (198.2 MPa) were obtained for the samples with the smallest and narrowest wall thickness distribution (3.1 ?m) and lower pore volume (54.5%).

Immunohistochemical distribution of Ki67 in epidermis of thick glabrous skin of human digits.

Science.gov (United States)

Petrovic, Aleksandar; Petrovic, Vladimir; Milojkovic, Bobana; Nikolic, Ivan; Jovanovic, Dragan; Antovic, Aleksandra; Milic, Miroslav

2018-01-01

The glabrous skin on the flexor sides of hands and feet, compared to other integument regions, has thicker epidermis and more complex pattern of epidermal ridges, wherefore in microscopy is denominated as thick skin. The epidermis of this skin type has individually unique and permanent superficial patterns, called dermatoglyphics, which are maintained by regenerative potential of deep epidermal rete ridges, that interdigitate with adjacent dermis. Using light microscopy, we analyzed cadaveric big toes thick skin samples, described histology of deep epidermal ridges (intermediate, limiting, and transverse), and quantitatively evidenced their pattern of proliferation by immunohistochemical assessment of Ki67. Immunohistochemical distribution of Ki67 was confined to basal and suprabasal layers, with pattern of distribution specific for intermediate, limiting and transverse ridges that gradually transform within epidermal height. Deep epidermal ridges, interdigitating with dermal papillae, participate in construction of intricate epidermal base, whose possible role in epidermal regeneration was also discussed. Having a prominent morphology, this type of epidermis offers the best morphological insight in complexities of skin organization, and its understanding could challenge and improve currently accepted models of epidermal organization.

Dependence of surface distribution of self-assembled InSb nanodots on surface morphology and spacer layer thickness

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Godbole, M., E-mail: mohit.godbole@nmmu.ac.za [Department of Physics, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, PO Box 77000, Port Elizabeth 6031 (South Africa); Olivier, E.J. [Department of Physics, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, PO Box 77000, Port Elizabeth 6031 (South Africa); Coetsee, E.; Swart, H.C. [Department of Physics, University of the Free State, PO Box 339, Bloemfontein 9300 (South Africa); Neethling, J.H.; Botha, J.R. [Department of Physics, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, PO Box 77000, Port Elizabeth 6031 (South Africa)

2012-05-15

Self-assembled InSb nanodots (NDs) were grown on a GaSb (1 0 0) substrate using metal-organic vapour phase epitaxy (MOVPE). The effects of etching depth of the substrate and thickness of the GaSb buffer layer on the density and size distribution of single and double layer dots were studied for detector applications. The etch depth of the substrate was varied up to 30 {mu}m. In this particular study, the dots were grown at 450 Degree-Sign C and the GaSb spacer thickness was varied between 50 nm and 200 nm. The optimum substrate etch depth was found to be 30 {mu}m while the best spacer thickness was found to be 200 nm.

Dependence of surface distribution of self-assembled InSb nanodots on surface morphology and spacer layer thickness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Godbole, M.; Olivier, E.J.; Coetsee, E.; Swart, H.C.; Neethling, J.H.; Botha, J.R.

2012-01-01

Self-assembled InSb nanodots (NDs) were grown on a GaSb (1 0 0) substrate using metal-organic vapour phase epitaxy (MOVPE). The effects of etching depth of the substrate and thickness of the GaSb buffer layer on the density and size distribution of single and double layer dots were studied for detector applications. The etch depth of the substrate was varied up to 30 μm. In this particular study, the dots were grown at 450 °C and the GaSb spacer thickness was varied between 50 nm and 200 nm. The optimum substrate etch depth was found to be 30 μm while the best spacer thickness was found to be 200 nm.

METALLICITY GRADIENTS OF THICK DISK DWARF STARS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carrell, Kenneth; Chen Yuqin; Zhao Gang, E-mail: carrell@nao.cas.cn [Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China)

2012-12-01

We examine the metallicity distribution of the Galactic thick disk using F, G, and K dwarf stars selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, Data Release 8. Using the large sample of dwarf stars with proper motions and spectroscopically determined stellar parameters, metallicity gradients in the radial direction for various heights above the Galactic plane and in the vertical direction for various radial distances from the Galaxy center have been found. In particular, we find a vertical metallicity gradient of -0.113 {+-} 0.010 (-0.125 {+-} 0.008) dex kpc{sup -1} using an isochrone (photometric) distance determination in the range 1 kpc <|Z| < 3 kpc, which is the vertical height range most consistent with the thick disk of our Galaxy. In the radial direction, we find metallicity gradients between +0.02 and +0.03 dex kpc{sup -1} for bins in the vertical direction between 1 kpc <|Z| < 3 kpc. Both of these results agree with similar values determined from other populations of stars, but this is the first time a radial metallicity gradient for the thick disk has been found at these vertical heights. We are also able to separate thin and thick disk stars based on kinematic and spatial probabilities in the vertical height range where there is significant overlap of these two populations. This should aid further studies of the metallicity gradients of the disk for vertical heights lower than those studied here but above the solar neighborhood. Metallicity gradients in the thin and thick disks are important probes into possible formation scenarios for our Galaxy and a consistent picture is beginning to emerge from results using large spectroscopic surveys, such as the ones presented here.

Helium ion distributions in a 4 kJ plasma focus device by 1 mm-thick large-size polycarbonate detectors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sohrabi, M., E-mail: dr_msohrabi@yahoo.com; Habibi, M.; Ramezani, V.

2014-11-14

Helium ion beam profile, angular and iso-ion beam distributions in 4 kJ Amirkabir plasma focus (APF) device were effectively observed by the unaided eyes and studied in single 1 mm-thick large-diameter (20 cm) polycarbonate track detectors (PCTD). The PCTDs were processed by 50 Hz–HV electrochemical etching using a large-size ECE chamber. The results show that helium ions produced in the APF device have a ring-shaped angular distribution peaked at an angle of ∼±60° with respect to the top of the anode. Some information on the helium ion energy and distributions is also provided. The method is highly effective for ion beam studies. - Highlights: • Helium iso-ion beam profile and angular distributions were studied in the 4 kJ APF device. • Large-area 1 mm-thick polycarbonate detectors were processed by 50 Hz-HV ECE. • Helium ion beam profile and distributions were observed by unaided eyes in a single detector. • Helium ion profile has ring-shaped distributions with energies lower at the ring location. • Helium iso-ion track density, diameter and energy distributions are estimated.

Ice-Rich Yedoma Permafrost: A Synthesis of Circum-Arctic Distribution and Thickness

Science.gov (United States)

Strauss, J.; Fedorov, A. N.; Fortier, D.; Froese, D. G.; Fuchs, M.; Grosse, G.; Günther, F.; Harden, J. W.; Hugelius, G.; Kanevskiy, M. Z.; Kholodov, A. L.; Kunitsky, V.; Laboor, S.; Lapointe Elmrabti, L.; Rivkina, E.; Robinson, J. E.; Schirrmeister, L.; Shmelev, D.; Shur, Y.; Spektor, V.; Ulrich, M.; Veremeeva, A.; Walter Anthony, K. M.; Zimov, S. A.

2015-12-01

Vast portions of Arctic and sub-Arctic Siberia, Alaska and the Yukon Territory are covered by ice-rich silts that are penetrated by large ice wedges, resulting from syngenetic sedimentation and freezing. Accompanied by wedge-ice growth, the sedimentation process was driven by cold continental climatic and environmental conditions in unglaciated regions during the late Pleistocene, inducing the accumulation of the unique Yedoma permafrost deposits up to 50 meter thick. Because of fast incorporation of organic material into permafrost during formation, Yedoma deposits include low-decomposed organic matter. Moreover, ice-rich permafrost deposits like Yedoma are especially prone to degradation triggered by climate changes or human activity. When Yedoma deposits degrade, large amounts of sequestered organic carbon as well as other nutrients are released and become part of active biogeochemical cycling. This could be of global significance for the climate warming, as increased permafrost thaw is likely to cause a positive feedback loop. Therefore, a detailed assessment of the Yedoma deposit volume is of importance to estimate its potential future climate response. Moreover, as a step beyond the objectives of this synthesis study, our coverage (see figure for the Yedoma domain) and thickness estimation will provide critical data to refine the Yedoma permafrost organic carbon inventory, which is assumed to have freeze-locked between 83±12 and 129±30 gigatonnes (Gt) of organic carbon. Hence, we here synthesize data on the circum-Arctic and sub-Arctic distribution and thickness of Yedoma permafrost (see figure for the Yedoma domain) in the framework of an Action Group funded by the International Permafrost Association (IPA). The quantification of the Yedoma coverage is conducted by the digitization of geomorphological and Quaternary geological maps. Further data on Yedoma thickness is contributed from boreholes and exposures reported in the scientific literature.

78 FR 64153 - Policy Statement on the Principles for Development and Distribution of Annual Stress Test Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

2013-10-28

.... OCC-2012-0016] Policy Statement on the Principles for Development and Distribution of Annual Stress... the stress test horizon. The variables specified for each scenario generally address economic activity... institutions by November 15th of each year. This document articulates the principles that the OCC will apply to...

Predicting the responses of forest distribution and aboveground biomass to climate change under RCP scenarios in southern China.

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Erfu; Wu, Zhuo; Ge, Quansheng; Xi, Weimin; Wang, Xiaofan

2016-11-01

In the past three decades, our global climate has been experiencing unprecedented warming. This warming has and will continue to significantly influence the structure and function of forest ecosystems. While studies have been conducted to explore the possible responses of forest landscapes to future climate change, the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios under the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) have not been widely used in quantitative modeling research of forest landscapes. We used LANDIS-II, a forest dynamic landscape model, coupled with a forest ecosystem process model (PnET-II), to simulate spatial interactions and ecological succession processes under RCP scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. We also modeled a control scenario of extrapolating current climate conditions to examine changes in distribution and aboveground biomass (AGB) among five different forest types for the period of 2010-2100 in Taihe County in southern China, where subtropical coniferous plantations dominate. The results of the simulation show that climate change will significantly influence forest distribution and AGB. (i) Evergreen broad-leaved forests will expand into Chinese fir and Chinese weeping cypress forests. The area percentages of evergreen broad-leaved forests under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and the control scenarios account for 18.25%, 18.71%, 18.85% and 17.46% of total forest area, respectively. (ii) The total AGB under RCP4.5 will reach its highest level by the year 2100. Compared with the control scenarios, the total AGB under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 increases by 24.1%, 64.2% and 29.8%, respectively. (iii) The forest total AGB increases rapidly at first and then decreases slowly on the temporal dimension. (iv) Even though the fluctuation patterns of total AGB will remain consistent under various future climatic scenarios, there will be certain responsive differences among various forest types. © 2016

Numerical Investigation of Temperature Distribution in an Eroded Bend Pipe and Prediction of Erosion Reduced Thickness

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Hongjun; Feng, Guang; Wang, Qijun

2014-01-01

Accurate prediction of erosion thickness is essential for pipe engineering. The objective of the present paper is to study the temperature distribution in an eroded bend pipe and find a new method to predict the erosion reduced thickness. Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations with FLUENT software are carried out to investigate the temperature field. And effects of oil inlet rate, oil inlet temperature, and erosion reduced thickness are examined. The presence of erosion pit brings about the obvious fluctuation of temperature drop along the extrados of bend. And the minimum temperature drop presents at the most severe erosion point. Small inlet temperature or large inlet velocity can lead to small temperature drop, while shallow erosion pit causes great temperature drop. The dimensionless minimum temperature drop is analyzed and the fitting formula is obtained. Using the formula we can calculate the erosion reduced thickness, which is only needed to monitor the outer surface temperature of bend pipe. This new method can provide useful guidance for pipeline monitoring and replacement. PMID:24719576

Stress distribution at the dissimilar metal weld of safety injection nozzle according to safe-end length and SMW thickness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Tae Jin; Jeong, Woo Chul; Huh, Nam Su

2015-01-01

In the present paper, we evaluate the effects of the safe-end length and thickness of the similar metal weld (SMW) of safety injection nozzles on stress distributions at the dissimilar metal weld (DMW). For this evaluation, we carry out detailed 2-D axisymmetric finite element analyses by considering four different values of the safe-end length and four different values of the thickness of SMW. Based on the results obtained, we found that the SMW thickness affects the axial stresses at the center of the DMW for the shorter safe-end length; on the other hand, it does not affect the hoop stresses. In terms of the safe-end length, the values of the axial and hoop stresses at the inner surface of the DMW center increase as the safe-end length increases. In particular, for the cases considered in the present study, the stress distributions at the DMW center can be categorized according to certain values of safe-end length

Thick brane solutions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dzhunushaliev, Vladimir; Minamitsuji, Masato; Folomeev, Vladimir

2010-01-01

This paper gives a comprehensive review on thick brane solutions and related topics. Such models have attracted much attention from many aspects since the birth of the brane world scenario. In many works, it has been usually assumed that a brane is an infinitely thin object; however, in more general situations, one can no longer assume this. It is also widely considered that more fundamental theories such as string theory would have a minimal length scale. Many multidimensional field theories coupled to gravitation have exact solutions of gravitating topological defects, which can represent our brane world. The inclusion of brane thickness can realize a variety of possible brane world models. Given our understanding, the known solutions can be classified into topologically non-trivial solutions and trivial ones. The former class contains solutions of a single scalar (domain walls), multi-scalar, gauge-Higgs (vortices), Weyl gravity and so on. As an example of the latter class, we consider solutions of two interacting scalar fields. Approaches to obtain cosmological equations in the thick brane world are reviewed. Solutions with spatially extended branes (S-branes) and those with an extra time-like direction are also discussed.

Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akiko Hirata

Full Text Available Pine wilt disease (PWD constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22. For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 and two time periods (2050s and 2070s. We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area. Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

SITE-94. The central scenario for SITE-94: A climate change scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King-Clayton, L.M.; Chapman, N.A.; Kautsky, F.; Svensson, N.O.; Ledoux, E.

1995-12-01

The central scenario includes the following main components: a deterministic description of the most probable climatic state for Sweden (with special ref. to the Aespoe area) for the next c. 120,000 years, a description of the likely nature of the surface and geological environment in the area at each stage of the climate sequence selected, and quantitative information on how these changes might affect the disposal system. The climate models suggest glacial maxima at c. 5, 20, 60 and 100 thousand years from now. The Aespoe region is predicted to be significantly affected by the latter three glacial episodes, with the ice sheet reaching and covering the area during the latter two episodes (by up to c 2200m and 1200m thickness of ice, resp.). Permafrost thicknesses over the next 120,000 years have been calculated. Assumptions, estimates and alternatives to the prescribed climate evolution are discussed. Following definition of a realistic, albeit non-unique, climate sequence, the objective of scenario development is to provide an indicator of the physical, chemical and hydrogeological conditions at the front of and beneath the advancing and retreating ice sheets, with the aim of identifying critical aspects for Performance Assessment modelling. The effect of various factors, such as ice loading, development of permafrost, temperature changes and sea level changes are considered in terms of their impact on hydrogeology, groundwater chemistry, rock stress and surface environments. 183 refs

SITE-94. The central scenario for SITE-94: A climate change scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

King-Clayton, L M; Chapman, N A [QuantiSci Ltd, Melton Mowbray (United Kingdom); Kautsky, F [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Svensson, N O [Lund Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Quaternary Geology; Marsily, G de [Univ. VI Paris (France); Ledoux, E [Ecole Nationale Superieure des Mines, 77 - Fontainebleau (France)

1995-12-01

The central scenario includes the following main components: a deterministic description of the most probable climatic state for Sweden (with special ref. to the Aespoe area) for the next c. 120,000 years, a description of the likely nature of the surface and geological environment in the area at each stage of the climate sequence selected, and quantitative information on how these changes might affect the disposal system. The climate models suggest glacial maxima at c. 5, 20, 60 and 100 thousand years from now. The Aespoe region is predicted to be significantly affected by the latter three glacial episodes, with the ice sheet reaching and covering the area during the latter two episodes (by up to c 2200m and 1200m thickness of ice, resp.). Permafrost thicknesses over the next 120,000 years have been calculated. Assumptions, estimates and alternatives to the prescribed climate evolution are discussed. Following definition of a realistic, albeit non-unique, climate sequence, the objective of scenario development is to provide an indicator of the physical, chemical and hydrogeological conditions at the front of and beneath the advancing and retreating ice sheets, with the aim of identifying critical aspects for Performance Assessment modelling. The effect of various factors, such as ice loading, development of permafrost, temperature changes and sea level changes are considered in terms of their impact on hydrogeology, groundwater chemistry, rock stress and surface environments. 183 refs.

Numerical investigation on residual stress distribution and evolution during multipass narrow gap welding of thick-walled stainless steel pipes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, C.; Zhang, J.X.; Xue, C.B.

2011-01-01

Research highlights: → We performed pass-by-pass simulation of stresses for welding of thick-walled pipes. → The distributions and evolution of the residual stresses are demonstrated. → After the groove is filled to a height, the through-wall stress is almost unchanged. - Abstracts: The detailed pass-by-pass finite element (FE) simulation is presented to investigate the residual stresses in narrow gap multipass welding of pipes with a wall thickness of 70 mm and 73 weld passes. The simulated residual stress on the outer surface is validated with the experimental one. The distribution and evolution of the through-wall residual stresses are demonstrated. The investigated results show that the residual stresses on the outer and inner surfaces are tensile in the weld zone and its vicinity. The through-wall axial residual stresses at the weld center line and the HAZ line demonstrate a distribution of bending type. The through-wall hoop residual stress within the weld is mostly tensile. After the groove is filled to a certain height, the peak tensile stresses and the stress distribution patterns for both axial and hoop stresses remain almost unchanged.

Towards Resource Theory of Coherence in Distributed Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Streltsov, Alexander; Rana, Swapan; Bera, Manabendra Nath; Lewenstein, Maciej

2017-01-01

The search for a simple description of fundamental physical processes is an important part of quantum theory. One example for such an abstraction can be found in the distance lab paradigm: if two separated parties are connected via a classical channel, it is notoriously difficult to characterize all possible operations these parties can perform. This class of operations is widely known as local operations and classical communication. Surprisingly, the situation becomes comparably simple if the more general class of separable operations is considered, a finding that has been extensively used in quantum information theory for many years. Here, we propose a related approach for the resource theory of quantum coherence, where two distant parties can perform only measurements that do not create coherence and can communicate their outcomes via a classical channel. We call this class local incoherent operations and classical communication. While the characterization of this class is also difficult in general, we show that the larger class of separable incoherent operations has a simple mathematical form, yet still preserves the main features of local incoherent operations and classical communication. We demonstrate the relevance of our approach by applying it to three different tasks: assisted coherence distillation, quantum teleportation, and single-shot quantum state merging. We expect that the results we obtain in this work also transfer to other concepts of coherence that are discussed in recent literature. The approach we present here opens new ways to study the resource theory of coherence in distributed scenarios.

How accurate are estimates of glacier ice thickness? Results from ITMIX, the Ice Thickness Models Intercomparison eXperiment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Farinotti, Daniel; Brinkerhoff, Douglas J.; Clarke, Garry K. C.

2017-01-01

Knowledge of the ice thickness distribution of glaciers and ice caps is an important prerequisite for many glaciological and hydrological investigations. A wealth of approaches has recently been presented for inferring ice thickness from characteristics of the surface. With the Ice Thickness Models...

Modeling and Understanding Time-Evolving Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riccardo Melen

2015-08-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of modeling application scenarios characterized by variability over time and involving heterogeneous kinds of knowledge. The evolution of distributed technologies creates new and challenging possibilities of integrating different kinds of problem solving methods, obtaining many benefits from the user point of view. In particular, we propose here a multilayer modeling system and adopt the Knowledge Artifact concept to tie together statistical and Artificial Intelligence rule-based methods to tackle problems in ubiquitous and distributed scenarios.

Combining scenarios in a calculation of the overall probability distribution of cumulative releases of radioactivity from the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, southeastern New Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tierney, M.S.

1991-11-01

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), in southeastern New Mexico, is a research and development facility to demonstrate safe disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste. The US Department of Energy will designate WIPP as a disposal facility if it meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for disposal of such waste; the standard includes a requirement that estimates of cumulative releases of radioactivity to the accessible environment be incorporated in an overall probability distribution. The WIPP Project has chosen an approach to calculation of an overall probability distribution that employs the concept of scenarios for release and transport of radioactivity to the accessible environment. This report reviews the use of Monte Carlo methods in the calculation of an overall probability distribution and presents a logical and mathematical foundation for use of the scenario concept in such calculations. The report also draws preliminary conclusions regarding the shape of the probability distribution for the WIPP system; preliminary conclusions are based on the possible occurrence of three events and the presence of one feature: namely, the events ''attempted boreholes over rooms and drifts,'' ''mining alters ground-water regime,'' ''water-withdrawal wells provide alternate pathways,'' and the feature ''brine pocket below room or drift.'' Calculation of the WIPP systems's overall probability distributions for only five of sixteen possible scenario classes that can be obtained by combining the four postulated events or features

Modeling the potential distribution of Bacillus anthracis under multiple climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timothy Andrew Joyner

Full Text Available Anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a zoonotic disease that persists throughout much of the world in livestock, wildlife, and secondarily infects humans. This is true across much of Central Asia, and particularly the Steppe region, including Kazakhstan. This study employed the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP to model the current and future geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis in Kazakhstan based on the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES climate change scenarios using a 5-variable data set at 55 km(2 and 8 km(2 and a 6-variable BioClim data set at 8 km(2. Future models suggest large areas predicted under current conditions may be reduced by 2050 with the A2 model predicting approximately 14-16% loss across the three spatial resolutions. There was greater variability in the B2 models across scenarios predicting approximately 15% loss at 55 km(2, approximately 34% loss at 8 km(2, and approximately 30% loss with the BioClim variables. Only very small areas of habitat expansion into new areas were predicted by either A2 or B2 in any models. Greater areas of habitat loss are predicted in the southern regions of Kazakhstan by A2 and B2 models, while moderate habitat loss is also predicted in the northern regions by either B2 model at 8 km(2. Anthrax disease control relies mainly on livestock vaccination and proper carcass disposal, both of which require adequate surveillance. In many situations, including that of Kazakhstan, vaccine resources are limited, and understanding the geographic distribution of the organism, in tandem with current data on livestock population dynamics, can aid in properly allocating doses. While speculative, contemplating future changes in livestock distributions and B. anthracis spore promoting environments can be useful for establishing future surveillance priorities. This study may also have broader applications to global public health surveillance relating to other diseases in addition to B

Thick brane in f(R) gravity with Palatini dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bazeia, D.; Losano, L.; Menezes, R.; Olmo, Gonzalo J.; Rubiera-Garcia, D.

2015-01-01

This work deals with modified gravity in five-dimensional space-time. We study a thick Palatini f(R) brane, that is, a braneworld scenario described by an anti-de Sitter warped geometry with a single extra dimension of infinite extent, sourced by a real scalar field under the Palatini approach, where the metric and the connection are regarded as independent degrees of freedom. We consider a first-order framework which we use to provide exact solutions for the scalar field and warp factor. We also investigate a perturbative scenario such that the Palatini approach is implemented through a Lagrangian f(R)=R+ϵR n , where the small parameter ϵ controls the deviation from the standard thick brane case. In both cases it is found that the warp factor tends to localize the extra dimension due to the nonlinear corrections

Thick brane in f(R) gravity with Palatini dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bazeia, D.; Losano, L. [Universidade Federal da Paraiba, Departamento de Fisica, Joao Pessoa, PB (Brazil); Menezes, R. [Universidade Federal da Paraiba, Departamento de Ciencias Exatas, Rio Tinto, PB (Brazil); Universidade Federal de Campina Grande, Departamento de Fisica, Campina Grande, PB (Brazil); Olmo, Gonzalo J. [Universidade Federal da Paraiba, Departamento de Fisica, Joao Pessoa, PB (Brazil); Universidad de Valencia, Departamento de Fisica Teorica, IFIC, Centro Mixto Universidad de Valencia-CSIC, Burjassot, Valencia (Spain); Rubiera-Garcia, D. [Universidade Federal da Paraiba, Departamento de Fisica, Joao Pessoa, PB (Brazil); Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciencias, Instituto de Astrofisica e Ciencias do Espaco, Lisbon (Portugal); Fudan University, Department of Physics, Center for Field Theory and Particle Physics, Shanghai (China)

2015-12-15

This work deals with modified gravity in five-dimensional space-time. We study a thick Palatini f(R) brane, that is, a braneworld scenario described by an anti-de Sitter warped geometry with a single extra dimension of infinite extent, sourced by a real scalar field under the Palatini approach, where the metric and the connection are regarded as independent degrees of freedom. We consider a first-order framework which we use to provide exact solutions for the scalar field and warp factor. We also investigate a perturbative scenario such that the Palatini approach is implemented through a Lagrangian f(R) = R + εR{sup n}, where the small parameter ε controls the deviation from the standard thick brane case. In both cases it is found that the warp factor tends to localize the extra dimension due to the nonlinear corrections. (orig.)

Thick brane in f(R) gravity with Palatini dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bazeia, D., E-mail: bazeia@fisica.ufpb.br; Losano, L., E-mail: losano@fisica.ufpb.br [Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal da Paraíba, 58051-900, João Pessoa, PB (Brazil); Menezes, R., E-mail: rmenezes@dce.ufpb.br [Departamento de Ciências Exatas, Universidade Federal da Paraíba, 58297-000, Rio Tinto, PB (Brazil); Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Campina Grande, 58109-970, Campina Grande, PB (Brazil); Olmo, Gonzalo J., E-mail: gonzalo.olmo@csic.es [Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal da Paraíba, 58051-900, João Pessoa, PB (Brazil); Departamento de Física Teórica, IFIC, Centro Mixto Universidad de Valencia-CSIC, Universidad de Valencia, 46100, Burjassot, Valencia (Spain); Rubiera-Garcia, D., E-mail: drgarcia@fc.ul.pt [Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal da Paraíba, 58051-900, João Pessoa, PB (Brazil); Faculdade de Ciências, Instituto de Astrofísica e Ciências do Espaço, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016, Lisbon (Portugal); Department of Physics, Center for Field Theory and Particle Physics, Fudan University, 220 Handan Road, 200433, Shanghai (China)

2015-11-30

This work deals with modified gravity in five-dimensional space-time. We study a thick Palatini f(R) brane, that is, a braneworld scenario described by an anti-de Sitter warped geometry with a single extra dimension of infinite extent, sourced by a real scalar field under the Palatini approach, where the metric and the connection are regarded as independent degrees of freedom. We consider a first-order framework which we use to provide exact solutions for the scalar field and warp factor. We also investigate a perturbative scenario such that the Palatini approach is implemented through a Lagrangian f(R)=R+ϵR{sup n}, where the small parameter ϵ controls the deviation from the standard thick brane case. In both cases it is found that the warp factor tends to localize the extra dimension due to the nonlinear corrections.

Energy utilities and environment-related energy services in the year 2008. Scenario study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-05-01

Insight is given into of the developments in the sector energy distribution companies and the consequences for the demand for energy services. Next, an overview is given of which energy services should be developed to meet the changed needs of the market. Three scenarios have been set up and are discussed in this brochure: (1) a Steady State scenario (unchanged policy of energy distribution companies); (2) Alliance scenario (strategic cooperation between energy distribution companies and retailers and installation businesses); and (3) Autonomous Development scenario (energy distribution companies develop and offer new services)

Towards Resource Theory of Coherence in Distributed Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Streltsov

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The search for a simple description of fundamental physical processes is an important part of quantum theory. One example for such an abstraction can be found in the distance lab paradigm: if two separated parties are connected via a classical channel, it is notoriously difficult to characterize all possible operations these parties can perform. This class of operations is widely known as local operations and classical communication. Surprisingly, the situation becomes comparably simple if the more general class of separable operations is considered, a finding that has been extensively used in quantum information theory for many years. Here, we propose a related approach for the resource theory of quantum coherence, where two distant parties can perform only measurements that do not create coherence and can communicate their outcomes via a classical channel. We call this class local incoherent operations and classical communication. While the characterization of this class is also difficult in general, we show that the larger class of separable incoherent operations has a simple mathematical form, yet still preserves the main features of local incoherent operations and classical communication. We demonstrate the relevance of our approach by applying it to three different tasks: assisted coherence distillation, quantum teleportation, and single-shot quantum state merging. We expect that the results we obtain in this work also transfer to other concepts of coherence that are discussed in recent literature. The approach we present here opens new ways to study the resource theory of coherence in distributed scenarios.

The effect of body postures on the distribution of air gap thickness and contact area.

Science.gov (United States)

Mert, Emel; Psikuta, Agnes; Bueno, Marie-Ange; Rossi, René M

2017-02-01

The heat and mass transfer in clothing is predominantly dependent on the thickness of air layer and the magnitude of contact area between the body and the garment. The air gap thickness and magnitude of the contact area can be affected by the posture of the human body. Therefore, in this study, the distribution of the air gap and the contact area were investigated for different body postures of a flexible manikin. In addition, the effect of the garment fit (regular and loose) and style (t-shirts, sweatpants, jacket and trousers) were analysed for the interaction between the body postures and the garment properties. A flexible manikin was scanned using a three-dimensional (3D) body scanning technique, and the scans were post-processed in dedicated software. The body posture had a strong effect on the air gap thickness and the contact area for regions where the garment had a certain distance from the body. Furthermore, a mathematical model was proposed to estimate the possible heat transfer coefficient for the observed air layers and their change with posture. The outcome of this study can be used to improve the design of the protective and functional garments and predict their effect on the human body.

Calculation of the magnetic flux density distribution in type-II superconductors with finite thickness and well-defined geometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forkl, A.; Kronmueller, H.

1995-01-01

The distribution of the critical current density j c (r) in hard type-II superconductors depends strongly on their sample geometry. Rules are given for the construction of j c (r). Samples with homogeneous thickness are divided into cakelike regions with a unique current direction. The spatial magnetic flux density distribution and the magnetic polarization of such a cakelike unit cell with homogeneous current density are calculated analytically. The magnetic polarization and magnetic flux density distribution of a superconductor in the mixed state is then given by an adequate superposition of the unit cell solutions. The theoretical results show good agreement with magneto-optically determined magnetic flux density distributions of a quadratic thin superconducting YBa 2 Cu 3 O 7-x film. The current density distribution is discussed for several sample geometries

Effect of mining thickness on abutment pressure of working face

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xie Guang-xiang; Wang Lei [Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan (China). Academy of Energy Sources and Security

2008-04-15

The distribution of the abutment pressure on the advancing front and on side of the working face was analyzed. Results show that the distribution of abutment pressure correlates with the thickness of the coal seam. The size of the abutment pressure peak is inversely proportional to the first mining thickness and the distance between peak and working face is proportional to the first mining thickness; that is to say the peak intensity falls as soon as the distribution range spreads. The distribution of side abutment pressure correlates somewhat with time. 6 refs.

Stimuli-Responsive Polyelectrolyte Brushes As a Matrix for the Attachment of Gold Nanoparticles: The Effect of Brush Thickness on Particle Distribution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephanie Christau

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The effect of brush thickness on the loading of gold nanoparticles (AuNPs within stimuli-responsive poly-(N,N-(dimethylamino ethyl methacrylate (PDMAEMA polyelectrolyte brushes is reported. Atom transfer radical polymerization (ATRP was used to grow polymer brushes via a “grafting from” approach. The brush thickness was tuned by varying the polymerization time. Using a new type of sealed reactor, thick brushes were synthesized. A systematic study was performed by varying a single parameter (brush thickness, while keeping all other parameters constant. AuNPs of 13 nm in diameter were attached by incubation. X-ray reflectivity, electron scanning microscopy and ellipsometry were used to study the particle loading, particle distribution and interpenetration of the particles within the brush matrix. A model for the structure of the brush/particle hybrids was derived. The particle number densities of attached AuNPs depend on the brush thickness, as do the optical properties of the hybrids. An increasing particle number density was found for increasing brush thickness, due to an increased surface roughness.

Relations between the matter density and layer thickness radial distributions in spherically symmetric objects: for high energy nuclear physics and astrophysics use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zielinska, M.; Zawislawski, Z.; Strugalska-Gola, E.; Strugalski, Z.

1991-01-01

It is shown how it is possible to transform known data on radial distribution of the matter layer thickness to unknown radial distribution of the matter density inside spherically symmetric objects. Appropriate formulas and testing of them are presented. An application of the method for the radial distribution of the matter density inside a target nucleus is discussed as an example. 2 refs.; 2 figs

Regional climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somot, S.

2005-01-01

Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

Runoff scenarios of the Ötz catchment (Tyrol, Austria) considering climate change driven changes of the cryosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Helfricht, Kay; Schneeberger, Klaus; Welebil, Irene; Schöber, Johannes; Huss, Matthias; Formayer, Herbert; Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneider, Katrin

2014-05-01

The seasonal distribution of runoff in alpine catchments is markedly influenced by the cryospheric contribution (snow and ice). Long-term climate change will alter these reservoirs and consequently have an impact on the water balance. Glacierized catchments like the Ötztal (Tyrol, Austria) are particularly sensitive to changes in the cryosphere and the hydrological changes related to them. The Ötztal possesses an outstanding role in Austrian and international cryospheric research and reacts sensitive to changes in hydrology due to its socio-economic structure (e.g. importance of tourism, hydro-power). In this study future glacier scenarios for the runoff calculations in the Ötztal catchment are developed. In addition to climatological scenario data, glacier scenarios were established for the hydrological simulation of future runoff. Glacier outlines and glacier surface elevation changes of the Austrian Glacier Inventory were used to derive present ice thickness distribution and scenarios of glacier area distribution. Direct effects of climate change (i.e. temperature and precipitation change) and indirect effects in terms of variations in the cryosphere were considered for the analysis of the mean runoff and particularly flood frequencies. Runoff was modelled with the hydrological model HQSim, which was calibrated for the runoff gauges at Brunau, Obergurgl and Vent. For a sensitivity study, the model was driven by separate glacier scenarios. Keeping glacier area constant, variable climate input was used to separate the effect of climate sensitivity. Results of the combination of changed glacier areas and changed climate input were subsequently analysed. Glacier scenarios show first a decrease in volume, before glacier area shrinks. The applied method indicates a 50% ice volume loss by 2050 relative to today. Further, model results show a reduction in glacier volume and area to less than 20% of the current ice cover towards the end of the 21st century. The effect

Determination of the thickness distribution of a graphene layer grown on a 2″ SiC wafer by means of Auger electron spectroscopy depth profiling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kotis, L.; Gurban, S.; Pecz, B.; Menyhard, M.; Yakimova, R.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • The thickness of graphene grown on SiC was determined by AES depth profiling. • The AES depth profiling verified the presence of buffer layer on SiC. • The presence of unsaturated Si bonds in the buffer layer has been shown. • Using multipoint analysis thickness distribution of the graphene on the wafer was determined. - Abstract: Auger electron spectroscopy (AES) depth profiling was applied for determination of the thickness of a macroscopic size graphene sheet grown on 2 in. 6H-SiC (0 0 0 1) by sublimation epitaxy. The measured depth profile deviated from the expected exponential form showing the presence of an additional, buffer layer. The measured depth profile was compared to the simulated one which allowed the derivation of the thicknesses of the graphene and buffer layers and the Si concentration of buffer layer. It has been shown that the graphene-like buffer layer contains about 30% unsaturated Si. The depth profiling was carried out in several points (diameter 50 μm), which permitted the constructing of a thickness distribution characterizing the uniformity of the graphene sheet

Towards A Complete Census of Compton-thick AGN and N_H Distribution in the Local Universe

Science.gov (United States)

Annuar, A.; Gandhi, P.; Alexander, D.; Asmus, D.; Goulding, A.; Harrison, C.; Lansbury, G.

2014-07-01

Many studies have shown that Compton-thick AGNs (CTAGNs) provide important contribution to the cosmic X-ray background spectrum (˜25% at 20keV). They are expected to dominate the Seyfert 2 population in the local universe, yet only ˜20 bona fide CTAGNs are known. We present an updated census of CTAGN population in the local universe using a volume-limited AGN sample complete to D=15Mpc. Intrinsic relations between 2-10keV X-ray luminosity and mid-IR emission at 12μm, [OIV]λ25.68μm and [NeV]λ14.32μm are investigated, and it is found that the emission at 12μm has the tightest correlation with the X-ray luminosity.Candidates for CTAGN are then selected using this relation and by comparing their 12μm luminosity with the observed X-ray luminosity.We also investigate the Compton-thick nature of these sources using the optical [OIII]λ5007{A}:X-ray diagnostic for comparison, and find that 35-50% of the sample are Compton-thick,of which 10-20% would be missed with the optical approach.Finally, we estimate the intrinsic N_{H} distribution of AGN population in the local universe from this analysis, and show that up to 70% of the sources are heavily obscured (N_{H}>10^{23} cm^{-2}), with ≥50% lying in the Compton-thick regime (N_{H}>10^{24} cm^{-2}).This work provides a well-defined local benchmark for AGN obscuration studies.

A three-dimensional finite element study on the effect of hydroxyapatite coating thickness on the stress distribution of the surrounding dental implant-bone interface

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hadi Asgharzadeh Shirazi

2014-06-01

Full Text Available   Background and Aims: Hydroxyapatite coating has allocated a special place in dentistry due to its biocompatibility and bioactivity. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the relation between the hydroxyapatite thickness and stress distribution by using finite element method.   Materials and Methods: In this paper, the effect of hydroxyapatite coating thickness on dental implants was studied using finite element method in the range between 0 to 200 microns. A 3D model including one section of mandible bone was modeled by a thick layer of cortical surrounding dense cancellous and a Nobel Biocare commercial brand dental implant was simulated and analyzed under static load in the Abaqus software.   Results The diagram of maximum von Mises stress versus coating thickness was plotted for the cancellous and cortical bones in the range between 0 to 200 microns. The obtained results showed that the magnitude of maximum von Mises stress of bone decreased as the hydroxyapatite coating thickness increased. Also, the thickness of coating exhibited smoother stress distribution and milder variations of maximum von Mises stress in a range between 60 to 120 microns.   Conclusion: In present study, the stress was decreased in the mandible bone where hydroxyapatite coating was used. This stress reduction leads to a faster stabilization and fixation of implant in the mandible bone. Using hydroxyapatite coating as a biocompatible and bioactive material could play an important role in bone formation of implant- bone interface.

Mixed optical Cherenkov–Bremsstrahlung radiation in vicinity of the Cherenkov cone from relativistic heavy ions: Unusual dependence of the angular distribution width on the radiator thickness

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rozhkova, E.I., E-mail: elenafiks@gmail.com; Pivovarov, Yu.L.

2016-07-15

The Cherenkov radiation (ChR) angular distribution is usually described by the Tamm–Frank (TF) theory, which assumes that relativistic charged particle moves uniformly and rectilinearly in the optically transparent radiator. According to the TF theory, the full width at half maximum (FWHM) of the ChR angular distribution inversely depends on the radiator thickness. In the case of relativistic heavy ions (RHI) a slowing-down in the radiator may sufficiently change the angular distribution of optical radiation in vicinity of the Cherenkov cone, since there appears a mixed ChR–Bremsstrahlung radiation. As a result, there occurs a drastic transformation of the FWHM of optical radiation angular distribution in dependence on the radiator thickness: from inversely proportional (TF theory) to the linearly proportional one. In our paper we present the first analysis of this transformation taking account of the gradual velocity decrease of RHI penetrating through a radiator. - Highlights: • Stopping of relativistic heavy ions leads to appearance of a Cherenkov–Bremsstrahlung radiation near the Cherenkov cone. • Mixed Cherenkov–Bremsstrahlung optical radiation FWHM differs from the standard one determined by the Tamm–Frank theory. • The Cherenkov–Bremsstrahlung radiation angular distribution FWHM linearly depends on the radiator thickness.

A database of worldwide glacier thickness observations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gärtner-Roer, I.; Naegeli, K.; Huss, M.

2014-01-01

One of the grand challenges in glacier research is to assess the total ice volume and its global distribution. Over the past few decades the compilation of a world glacier inventory has been well-advanced both in institutional set-up and in spatial coverage. The inventory is restricted to glacier...... the different estimation approaches. This initial database of glacier and ice caps thickness will hopefully be further enlarged and intensively used for a better understanding of the global glacier ice volume and its distribution....... surface observations. However, although thickness has been observed on many glaciers and ice caps around the globe, it has not yet been published in the shape of a readily available database. Here, we present a standardized database of glacier thickness observations compiled by an extensive literature...... review and from airborne data extracted from NASA's Operation IceBridge. This database contains ice thickness observations from roughly 1100 glaciers and ice caps including 550 glacier-wide estimates and 750,000 point observations. A comparison of these observational ice thicknesses with results from...

Helium ion distributions in a 4 kJ plasma focus device by 1 mm-thick large-size polycarbonate detectors

Science.gov (United States)

Sohrabi, M.; Habibi, M.; Ramezani, V.

2014-11-01

Helium ion beam profile, angular and iso-ion beam distributions in 4 kJ Amirkabir plasma focus (APF) device were effectively observed by the unaided eyes and studied in single 1 mm-thick large-diameter (20 cm) polycarbonate track detectors (PCTD). The PCTDs were processed by 50 Hz-HV electrochemical etching using a large-size ECE chamber. The results show that helium ions produced in the APF device have a ring-shaped angular distribution peaked at an angle of ∼ ± 60 ° with respect to the top of the anode. Some information on the helium ion energy and distributions is also provided. The method is highly effective for ion beam studies.

Angular distribution of thick-target bremsstrahlung produced by electrons with initial energies ranging from 10 to 20 keV incident on Ag

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gonzales, D.; Cavness, B.; Williams, S. [Department of Physics, Angelo State University, San Angelo, Texas 76909 (United States)

2011-11-15

Experimental results are presented comparing the intensities of the bremsstrahlung produced by electrons with initial energies ranging from 10 to 20 keV incident on a thick Ag target, measured at forward angles in the range of 0 degree sign to 55 degree sign . When the data are corrected for attenuation due to photon absorption within the target, the results indicate that the detected radiation is distributed anisotropically only at photon energies k that are approximately equal to the initial energy of the incident electrons E{sub 0}. The results of our experiments suggest that, as k/E{sub 0}{yields} 0, the detected radiation essentially becomes isotropic due primarily to the scattering of electrons within the target. A comparison to the theory of Kissel et al.[At. Data Nucl. Data Tables 28, 381 (1983)] suggests that the angular distribution of bremsstrahlung emitted by electrons incident on thick targets is similar to the angular distribution of bremsstrahlung emitted by electrons incident on free-atom targets only when k/E{sub 0}{approx_equal} 1. The experimental data also are in approximate agreement with the angular distribution predictions of the Monte Carlo program penelope.

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

to a similar audience, namely the emissions scenario communities that are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. His focus is primarily on a set of concerns that need to be addressed if the new set of socio-economic and emissions scenario products are to adequately support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research. Pitcher flags issues associated with assessment and measurement of economic growth, challenges associated with downscaling long-term, global scenarios to finer geographic and time scales, and possible ways to grapple with probability and uncertainty in scenario analyses. Garb et al (2008) shift focus to the process aspects of scenarios, focusing on how scenarios simultaneously shape and embed their social contexts. They outline and give examples from a research agenda, drawing on concepts and methods from sociology, political science, and science and technology studies, aimed at redressing the growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the quantitative components of scenarios on the one hand, and the continued simplicity of our understandings of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled on the other. Focusing on the treatment of equity concerns in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Baer (2009) offers a concrete example of how particular social assumptions and definitions of equity are built into scenarios which then create particular worldviews about rights and responsibilities. Baer argues that incorporating distributions of income within—and not only between—countries in quantitative scenario exercises makes visible questions regarding the assignment of rights and the distribution of costs and benefits; such equity considerations, he argues, are central to engendering the cooperation necessary to address the climate crisis. For Parson (2008

Multispectral UV imaging for determination of the tablet coating thickness

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Novikova, Anna; Carstensen, Jens Michael; Zeitler, J. Axel

2017-01-01

The applicability of off-line multispectral ultraviolet (UV) imaging in combination with multivariate data analysis was investigated to determine the coating thickness and its distribution on the tablet surface during lab scale coating. The UV imaging results were compared with the weight gain...... measured for each individual tablet and the corresponding coating thickness and its distribution measured by terahertz pulsed imaging (TPI). Three different tablet formulations were investigated, two of which contained UV active tablet cores. Three coating formulations were applied: Aquacoat® ECD (a mainly...... translucent coating) and Eudragit® NE (a turbid coating containing solid particles). It was shown that UV imaging is a fast and non-destructive method to predict individual tablet weight gain as well as coating thickness. The coating thickness distribution profiles determined by UV imaging correlated...

Predicting the Equilibrium Deuterium-Tritium Fuel Layer Thickness Profile in an Indirect-Drive Hohlraum Capsule

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanchez, Jorge J.; Giedt, Warren H.

2004-01-01

A numerical procedure for calculating the equilibrium thickness distribution of a thin layer of deuterium and tritium on the inner surface of an indirect drive target sphere (∼2.0 mm in diameter) is described. Starting with an assumed uniform thickness layer and with specified thermal boundary conditions, the temperature distribution throughout the capsule and hohlraum (including natural convection in the hohlraum gas) is calculated. Results are used to make a first estimate of the final non-uniform thickness distribution of the layer. This thickness distribution is then used to make a second calculation of the temperature distribution with the same boundary conditions. Legendre polynomial coefficients are evaluated for the two temperature distributions and the two thickness profiles. Final equilibrium Legendre coefficients are determined by linear extrapolation. From these coefficients, the equilibrium layer thickness can be computed

Multispectral UV Imaging for Determination of the Tablet Coating Thickness.

Science.gov (United States)

Novikova, Anna; Carstensen, Jens M; Zeitler, J Axel; Rades, Thomas; Leopold, Claudia S

2017-06-01

The applicability of off-line multispectral UV imaging in combination with multivariate data analysis was investigated to determine the coating thickness and its distribution on the tablet surface during lab-scale coating. The UV imaging results were compared with the weight gain measured for each individual tablet and the corresponding coating thickness and its distribution measured by terahertz pulsed imaging (TPI). Three different tablet formulations were investigated, 2 of which contained UV-active tablet cores. Three coating formulations were applied: Aquacoat® ECD (a mainly translucent coating) and Eudragit® NE (a turbid coating containing solid particles). It was shown that UV imaging is a fast and nondestructive method to predict individual tablet weight gain as well as coating thickness. The coating thickness distribution profiles determined by UV imaging correlated to the results of the TPI measurements. UV imaging appears to hold a significant potential as a process analytical technology tool for determination of the tablet coating thickness and its distribution resulting from its high measurement speed, high molar absorptivity, and a high scattering coefficient, in addition to relatively low costs. Copyright © 2017 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fiscal 2000 survey on electrical power supply system for the purpose of reducing greenhouse effect gas. Three scenarios for spread of distributed power generation by 2010; 2000 nendo onshitsu koka gas sakugen no tame no denryoku kyokyu system ni kansuru chosa hokokusho. 2010 nen made no bunsangata dengen fukyu ni kansuru mittsu no scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2001-03-01

An examination was conducted concerning the course of spread of distributed power generation (on-site power generation of 2,000 kW or less) by the year 2010, with three scenarios prepared. In the scenario 1, the government will completely deregulates the power market and take no other steps, leaving the matter to market competition. The universal service will be abandoned, which means higher power prices for remote regions, contributing to the spread of home power generation. In the scenario 2, the government, having reached the limits of the nuclear propulsion policy, will adopt natural gas as the center of its electrical power policy, providing preferential treatments such as subsidies and tax exemptions and requesting the power companies to increase their usage. This will lead to higher transmission charges, with distributed power generation more advantageous to the IPPs in terms of cost. In the scenario 3, environmental awareness will make increase in the capacity quite difficult including power generation facilities and transmission/distribution network, and will invite a power crisis in the long run through insufficient capacity in power generation and transmission/distribution volume. Distributed power generation requiring no reinforcement to the grid will spread such as household-use type without system interconnection, solar cells or small fuel cells. (NEDO)

A verification scenario of nuclear plus interference scattering effects using neutron incident angle distribution to the wall in beam-injected deuterium plasmas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugiyama, Shota; Matsuura, Hideaki; Uchiyama, Daisuke; Sawada, Daisuke; Watanabe, Tsuguhiro; Goto, Takuya; Mitarai, Osamu

2015-01-01

A verification scenario of knock-on tail formation in the deuteron distribution function due to nuclear plus interference scattering is presented by observing the incident angle distribution of neutrons in a vacuum vessel. Assuming a knock-on tail created in a "3He-beam-injected deuterium plasma, the incident angle distribution and energy spectra of the neutrons produced by fusion reactions between 1-MeV and thermal deuterons are evaluated. The relation between the neutron incident angle to the vacuum vessel and neutron energy is examined in the case of anisotropic neutron emission due to knock-on tail formation in neutral-beam-injected plasmas. (author)

Maximizing hosting capacity of renewable energy sources in distribution networks: A multi-objective and scenario-based approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rabiee, Abbas; Mohseni-Bonab, Seyed Masoud

2017-01-01

Due to the development of renewable energy sources (RESs), maximization of hosting capacity (HC) of RESs has gained significant interest in the existing and future power systems. HC maximization should be performed considering various technical constraints like power flow equations, limits on the distribution feeders' voltages and currents, as well as economic constraints such as the cost of energy procurement from the upstream network and power generation by RESs. RESs are volatile and uncertain in nature. Thus, it is necessary to handle their inherent uncertainties in the HC maximization problem. Wind power is now the fastest growing RESs around the world. Hence, in this paper a stochastic multi-objective optimization model is proposed to maximize the distribution network's HC for wind power and minimize the energy procurement costs in a wind integrated power system. The following objective functions are considered: 1) Cost of the purchased energy from upstream network (to be minimized) and 2) Operation and maintenance cost of wind farms. The proposed model is examined on a standard radial 69 bus distribution feeder and a practical 152 bus distribution system. The numerical results substantiate that the proposed model is an effective tool for distribution network operators (DNOs) to consider both technical and economic aspects of distribution network's HC for RESs. - Highlights: • Hosting capacity of wind power is improved in distribution feeders. • A stochastic multi-objective optimization model is proposed. • Wind power and load uncertainties are modeled by scenario based approach. • Purchased energy cost from upstream network and O&M cost of wind farms are used.

Distribution of Large Visible and Buried Impact Basins on Mars: Comparison with Free-Air Gravity, Crustal Thickness and Magnetization Models

Science.gov (United States)

Frey, H. V.

2004-01-01

A comparison of the distribution of visible and buried impact basins (Quasi-Circular Depressions or QCDs) on Mars > 200 km in diameter with free air gravity, crustal thickness and magnetization models shows some QCDs have coincident gravity anomalies but most do not. Very few QCDs have closely coincident magnetization anomalies, and only the oldest of the very large impact basins have strong magnetic anomalies within their main rings. Crustal thickness data show a large number of Circular Thinned Areas (CTAs). Some of these correspond to known impact basins, while others may represent buried impact basins not always recognized as QCDs in topography data alone. If true, the buried lowlands may be even older than we have previously estimated.

GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Nativi, S.; Santoro, M.

2009-12-01

Currently, one of the major challenges for scientific community is the study of climate change effects on life on Earth. To achieve this, it is crucial to understand how climate change will impact on biodiversity and, in this context, several application scenarios require modeling the impact of climate change on distribution of individual species. In the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2), the Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group developed three significant user scenarios. A couple of them make use of a GEOSS-based framework to study the impact of climate change factors on regional species distribution. The presentation introduces and discusses this framework which provides an interoperability infrastructures to loosely couple standard services and components to discover and access climate and biodiversity data, and run forecast and processing models. The framework is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components publish climate, environmental and biodiversity datasets; e)Ecological Niche Model Server: this component is able to run one or more Ecological Niche Models (ENM) on selected biodiversity and climate datasets; f)Data Access

CEATI distribution roadmap : what's next?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

The future of the electric distribution utility environment over the next 20 years was discussed. A study was conducted to assist utilities in developing future implementation plans. Twenty-one scenarios were created in order to obtain a list of technologies that may impact the future of the distribution grid. Scenarios considered potential policies and regulation, and investigated technologies required to implement each scenario. The scenarios considered future energy markets; business environments; distribution assets; and workforce developments. A distribution value chain classification was used to identify potential synergies. Results of the study showed that distributed resources will become more important in the next 20 years. Employee and system safety will require active consideration as the electricity grid becomes more complex. A second phase of the project will identify key technologies, common infrastructure needs, and guidelines for transforming distribution utilities in the future

Fast neutron distributions from Be and C thick targets bombarded with 80 and 160 MeV deuterons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pauwels, N.; Laurent, H.; Clapier, F.; Brandenburg, S.; Beijers, J. P .M.; Zegers, R. G. T.; Lebreton, H.; Saint-Laurent, M.G.; Mirea, M.

2001-01-01

Production of fast neutron studies have come to the fore in the past few years because of the great interest for the possible applications of induced fission to produce neutron rich ion beams. In this context, the main objective of the SPIRAL II (Systeme de Production d'Ions Radioactifs Acceleres en Ligne) and PARRNe (Production d'Atomes Radioactifs Riches en Neutrons) R and D projects is the investigation of the feasibility and of the optimum parameters for a neutron rich isotope source. Special attention is dedicated to the energy and angular distributions of the neutrons obtained through deuteron break--up in different types of converters and different incident energies. Analysis and modelling of such behaviors, together with the study of the yields of neutron induced fission, can be used to optimize the productivity of the fissioning target its geometry and designing it accordingly. The present report continues our previous studies realised for 17, 20, 28 and 200 MeV deuteron energies and it is focused on deuteron incident energies of 80 and 160 MeV. In the experiment, the double differential cross section for neutron production induced by 80 and 160 MeV deuterons impinging on thick C and Be targets, in which the incident deuterons were complete stopped, have been measured. The energy of the neutrons was determined from the time--of--flight (TOF) measurement. To obtain an energy resolution of about 4% for the fastest, forward--emitted neutrons, which have approximately beam velocity, the length of the flightpath for the detectors at angles up to 30 angle was chosen to be 6 m. At backward angles, where the neutron energies are lower, a shorter flightpath was chosen. A schematic drawing of the setup is shown. A 100 mm thick Be target and a 70 mm thick C target were used. Results are exemplified with the angular and energy distributions of neutron obtained for Be target at 80 MeV. (authors)

Metallicity gradient of the thick disc progenitor at high redshift

Science.gov (United States)

Kawata, Daisuke; Allende Prieto, Carlos; Brook, Chris B.; Casagrande, Luca; Ciucă, Ioana; Gibson, Brad K.; Grand, Robert J. J.; Hayden, Michael R.; Hunt, Jason A. S.

2018-01-01

We have developed a novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo chemical 'painting' technique to explore possible radial and vertical metallicity gradients for the thick disc progenitor. In our analysis, we match an N-body simulation to the data from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment survey. We assume that the thick disc has a constant scaleheight and has completed its formation at an early epoch, after which time radial mixing of its stars has taken place. Under these assumptions, we find that the initial radial metallicity gradient of the thick disc progenitor should not be negative, but either flat or even positive, to explain the current negative vertical metallicity gradient of the thick disc. Our study suggests that the thick disc was built-up in an inside-out and upside-down fashion, and older, smaller and thicker populations are more metal poor. In this case, star-forming discs at different epochs of the thick disc formation are allowed to have different radial metallicity gradients, including a negative one, which helps to explain a variety of slopes observed in high-redshift disc galaxies. This scenario helps to explain the positive slope of the metallicity-rotation velocity relation observed for the Galactic thick disc. On the other hand, radial mixing flattens the slope of an existing gradient.

Interferometric measurement of film thickness during bubble blowing

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Z.; Mandracchia, B.; Ferraro, V.; Tammaro, D.; Di Maio, E.; Maffettone, P. L.; Ferraro, P.

2017-06-01

In this paper, we propose digital holography in transmission configuration as an effective method to measure the time-dependent thickness of polymeric films during bubble blowing. We designed a complete set of experiments to measure bubble thickness, including the evaluation of the refractive index of the polymer solution. We report the measurement of thickness distribution along the film during the bubble formation process until the bubble`s rupture. Based on those data, the variation range and variation trend of bubble film thickness are clearly measured during the process of expansion to fracture is indicated.

Optimization of External Envelope Insulation Thickness: A Parametric Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eleftheria Touloupaki

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Almost four years after the implementation deadline of the energy performance of buildings Directive recast (2010/31/EU and after being referred to the Court of Justice of the EU by the European Commission, Greece has not yet proceeded with the necessary calculations and legislative measures on the minimum, cost-optimal energy performance requirements for buildings. This paper aims to identify the optimal thickness of insulation that is cost-effective to apply in urban multi-family domestic buildings in the four climate zones of Greece. A reference building is selected in order to perform calculations over ten scenarios of external insulation thickness for each climate zone on a basic and three sensitivity analysis calculations according to the EU comparative methodology framework. The resulting energy savings for each insulation scenario are calculated, and then the cost-effectiveness of the measure is examined in financial and macroeconomic perspective for an economic lifecycle of 30 years. The results demonstrate the inadequacy of the national regulation’s current insulation limits and the externalities (funding gaps that need to be addressed in order to achieve the effective improvement of energy efficiency in Greek homes.

The distribution of communication cost for a mobile service scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Jesper; Yiu, Man Lung

We consider the following mathematical model for a mobile service scenario. Consider a planar stationary Poisson process, with its points radially ordered with respect to the origin (the anchor); these points may correspond to locations of e.g. restaurants. A user, with a location different from...

Radiation at planar channeling of relativistic electrons in thick crystals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baier, V.N.; Katkov, V.M.; Strakhovenko, V.M.

1983-01-01

The distribution kinetics with respect to the transverse energy at electron channeling is discussed. The asymptotic expressions for the radiation intensity into a given collimator at electron channeling in thick crystals are derived. An optimal thickness at which the radiation output is maximal is found. The spectral distribution of the radiation intensity is analysed for the case of a single diamond crystal. (author)

Observations and the Wolf-Rayet evolutionary scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Firmani, C.

1982-01-01

Results of a statistical analysis of massive stars and of WR stars show general agreement with the scenario that identifies the majority of the WR stars with the He-burning evolutionary phases. The duplicity, the morphological properties and the galactic distribution of the WR stars are valuable pieces of evidence that suggest correlations between the different WR types and the ''channels'' defined in the scenario. A rough analysis of the ''traffic through each channel'' is attempted. (Auth.)

Correlation between blister skin thickness, the maximum in the damage-energy distribution, and projected ranges of He+ ions in metals: V

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaminsky, M.; Das, S.K.; Fenske, G.

1976-01-01

In these experiments a systematic study of the correlation of the skin thickness measured directly by scanning electron microscopy with both the calculated projected-range values and the maximum in the damage-energy distribution has been conducted for a broad helium-ion energy range (100 keV-1000 keV in polycrystalline vanadium. (Auth.)

Comparison of Different Approaches for Measuring Tibial Cartilage Thickness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maier Jennifer

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Osteoarthritis is a degenerative disease affecting bones and cartilage especially in the human knee. In this context, cartilage thickness is an indicator for knee cartilage health. Thickness measurements are performed on medical images acquired in-vivo. Currently, there is no standard method agreed upon that defines a distance measure in articular cartilage. In this work, we present a comparison of different methods commonly used in literature. These methods are based on nearest neighbors, surface normal vectors, local thickness and potential field lines. All approaches were applied to manual segmentations of tibia and lateral and medial tibial cartilage performed by experienced raters. The underlying data were contrast agent-enhanced cone-beam C-arm CT reconstructions of one healthy subject’s knee. The subject was scanned three times, once in supine position and two times in a standing weight-bearing position. A comparison of the resulting thickness maps shows similar distributions and high correlation coefficients between the approaches above 0.90. The nearest neighbor method results on average in the lowest cartilage thickness values, while the local thickness approach assigns the highest values. We showed that the different methods agree in their thickness distribution. The results will be used for a future evaluation of cartilage change under weight-bearing conditions.

Detrital illite crystals identified from crystallite thickness measurements in siliciclastic sediments

Science.gov (United States)

Aldega, L.; Eberl, D.D.

2005-01-01

Illite crystals in siliciclastic sediments are heterogeneous assemblages of detrital material coming from various source rocks and, at paleotemperatures >70 ??C, of superimposed diagenetic modification in the parent sediment. We distinguished the relative proportions of 2M1 detrital illite and possible diagenetic 1Md + 1M illite by a combined analysis of crystal-size distribution and illite polytype quantification. We found that the proportions of 1Md + 1M and 2M1 illite could be determined from crystallite thickness measurements (BWA method, using the MudMaster program) by unmixing measured crystallite thickness distributions using theoretical and calculated log-normal and/or asymptotic distributions. The end-member components that we used to unmix the measured distributions were three asymptotic-shaped distributions (assumed to be the diagenetic component of the mixture, the 1Md + 1M polytypes) calculated using the Galoper program (Phase A was simulated using 500 crystals per cycle of nucleation and growth, Phase B = 333/cycle, and Phase C = 250/ cycle), and one theoretical log-normal distribution (Phase D, assumed to approximate the detrital 2M1 component of the mixture). In addition, quantitative polytype analysis was carried out using the RockJock software for comparison. The two techniques gave comparable results (r2 = 0.93), which indicates that the unmixing method permits one to calculate the proportion of illite polytypes and, therefore, the proportion of 2M1 detrital illite, from crystallite thickness measurements. The overall illite crystallite thicknesses in the samples were found to be a function of the relative proportions of thick 2M1 and thin 1Md + 1M illite. The percentage of illite layers in I-S mixed layers correlates with the mean crystallite thickness of the 1Md + 1M polytypes, indicating that these polytypes, rather than the 2M1 polytype, participate in I-S mixed layering.

Study of hazardous scenario in service stations. Final report; Etude de scenarios dangereux en stations-service. Rapport final

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-10-01

The industrial environment group is working at the elaboration of prescriptions applicable to classed installations submitted to declaration (heading 1434: fill in and distribution of inflammable liquids). In this context the group asked the INERIS to realize a list of possible accidents scenario, to quantify the consequences in terms of safety distances, to identify the most pertinent scenario and to examine the particular cases which allow to reduce the safety distances especially the implementing of a fire break wall of two hours. (A.L.B.)

Fluid distribution and tissue thickness changes in 29 men during 1 week at moderate altitude (2,315 m).

Science.gov (United States)

Gunga, H C; Kirsch, K; Baartz, F; Steiner, H J; Wittels, P; Röcker, L

1995-01-01

To quantify fluid distribution at a moderate altitude (2,315 m) 29 male subjects were studied with respect to tissue thickness changes [front (forehead), sternum, tibia], changes of total body water, changes of plasma volume, total protein concentrations (TPC), colloid osmotic pressure (COP), and electrolytes. Tissue thickness at the forehead showed a significant increase from 4.14 mm to 4.41 mm 48 h after ascent to the Rudolfshuette (2,315 m) (P Rudolf-shuette in Saalfelden (744 m) COP was back to the control values. The TPC also showed an initial drop from 7.75 g.dl-1 to 7.48 g.dl-1 after 48 h at altitude and remained below the control value during the whole week (P < 0.01). It seems from our study that even with exposure to moderate altitude measurable fluid shifts to the upper part of the body occurred which were detected by our ultrasound method.

Thickness distributions and evolution of growth mechanisms of NH4-illite from the fossil hydrothermal system of Harghita Bai, Eastern Carpathians, Romania

Science.gov (United States)

Bobos, Iuliu; Eberl, Dennis D.

2013-01-01

The crystal growth of NH4-illite (NH4-I) from the hydrothermal system of Harghita Bãi (Eastern Carpathians) was deduced from the shapes of crystal thickness distributions (CTDs). The 4-illite-smectite (I-S) interstratified structures (R1, R2, and R3-type ordering) with a variable smectite-layer content. The NH4-I-S (40–5% S) structures were identified underground in a hydrothermal breccia structure, whereas the K-I/NH4-I mixtures were found at the deepest level sampled (−110 m). The percentage of smectite interlayers generally decreases with increasing depth in the deposit. This decrease in smectite content is related to the increase in degree of fracturing in the breccia structure and corresponds to a general increase in mean illite crystal thickness. In order to determine the thickness distributions of NH4-I crystals (fundamental illite particles) which make up the NH4-I-S interstratified structures and the NH4,-I/K-I mixtures, 27 samples were saturated with Li+ and aqueous solutions of PVP-10 to remove swelling and then were analyzed by X-ray diffraction. The profiles for the mean crystallite thickness (Tmean) and crystallite thickness distribution (CTD) of NH4-I crystallites were determined by the Bertaut-Warren-Averbach method using the MudMaster computer code. The Tmean of NH4-I from NH4-I-S samples ranges from 3.4 to 7.8 nm. The Tmean measured for the NH4-I/K-I mixture phase ranges from 7.8 nm to 11.7 nm (NH4-I) and from 12.1 to 24.7 nm (K-I).The CTD shapes of NH4-I fundamental particles are asymptotic and lognormal, whereas illites from NH4-I/K-I mixtures have bimodal shapes related to the presence of two lognormal-like CTDs corresponding to NH4-I and K-I.The crystal-growth mechanism for NH4-I samples was simulated using the Galoper code. Reaction pathways for NH4-I crystal nucleation and growth could be determined for each sample by plotting their CTD parameters on an α–β2 diagram constructed using Galoper. This analysis shows that NH4-I crystals

Loss optimization in distribution networks with distributed generation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pokhrel, Basanta Raj; Nainar, Karthikeyan; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2017-01-01

This paper presents a novel power loss minimization approach in distribution grids considering network reconfiguration, distributed generation and storage installation. Identification of optimum configuration in such scenario is one of the main challenges faced by distribution system operators...... in highly active distribution grids. This issue is tackled by formulating a hybrid loss optimization problem and solved using the Interior Point Method. Sensitivity analysis is used to identify the optimum location of storage units. Different scenarios of reconfiguration, storage and distributed generation...... penetration are created to test the proposed algorithm. It is tested in a benchmark medium voltage network to show the effectiveness and performance of the algorithm. Results obtained are found to be encouraging for radial distribution system. It shows that we can reduce the power loss by more than 30% using...

Aluminum oxide film thickness and emittance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, J.K.; Ondrejcin, R.S.

1991-11-01

Aluminum reactor components which are not actively cooled could be subjected to high temperatures due to gamma heating after the core coolant level dropped during the ECS phase of a hypothetical LOCA event. Radiative heat transfer is the dominant heat transfer process in this scenario and therefore the emittance of these components is of interest. Of particular interest are the safety rod thimbles and Mark 60B blanket assemblies; for the K Reactor, these components have been exposed to low temperature (< 55 degrees C) moderator for about a year. The average moderator temperature was assumed to be 30 degrees C. The Al oxide film thickness at this temperature, after one year of exposure, is predicted to be 6.4 μm ± 10%; insensitive to exposure time. Dehydration of the film during the gamma heating accident would result in a film thickness of 6.0 μm ± 11%. Total hemispherical emittance is predicted to be 0.69 at 96 degrees C, decreasing to 0.45 at 600 degrees C. Some phenomena which would tend to yield thicker oxide films in the reactor environment relative to those obtained under experimental conditions were neglected and the predicted film thickness values are therefore conservative. The emittance values predicted for a given film thickness are also conservative. The conservativisms inherent in the predicted emittance are particularly relevant for uncertainty analysis of temperatures generated using these values

GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures

Science.gov (United States)

Nativi, Stefano; Santoro, Mattia

2010-05-01

In the last years, scientific community is producing great efforts in order to study the effects of climate change on life on Earth. In this general framework, a key role is played by the impact of climate change on biodiversity. To assess this, several use scenarios require the modeling of climatological change impact on the regional distribution of biodiversity species. Designing and developing interoperability infrastructures which enable scientists to search, discover, access and use multi-disciplinary resources (i.e. datasets, services, models, etc.) is currently one of the main research fields for the Earth and Space Science Informatics. This presentation introduces and discusses an interoperability infrastructure which implements the discovery, access, and chaining of loosely-coupled resources in the climatology and biodiversity domains. This allows to set up and run forecast and processing models. The presented framework was successfully developed and experimented in the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2) Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group. This interoperability infrastructure is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components

The Analysis of Distribution of Thickness of ThinFilm Coating During the Magnetron Sputtering on Systems with Planetary Movement of Substrate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. R. Sagatelyan

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The article subject is a thin-film coating process using ion-plasma sputter deposition systems with magnetron sputtering targets. To improve coating thickness evenness of parts various manufacturers equip their systems with mechanisms for moving the coating parts, and sometimes the magnetrons. More specifically, the article concerns the ion-plasma sputtering process using a system equipped with a mechanism for providing a planetary movement of the coating parts in the plane perpendicular to the planes of two sputtering targets.The purpose of this work was to improve a distribution of the coating thickness evenness on the sputtering surface of the part. It is achieved through selection of the best combinations of kinematic and geometric factors that characterize a particular sputtering operation, depending on the size and position of the surface to be coated. These factors include a ratio between directions and frequencies of the self-rotation of satellite planetary gear, which holds a work piecesubstrate, and the translational motion i.e. planetary carrier rotation to carry the satellite; the angles of planes of the right and left magnetrons with respect to the system frontal plane. Since there is, essentially, a lack of mathematical models to perform the appropriate calculations for the considered type of system designs, a more specific aim of the article is to develop a technique to evaluate the uneven thickness of coatings provided by the systems of this type.To achieve this more specific purpose the analytical technique had been used, applying the postulates of analytical geometry and theoretical mechanics. The main results of the research described in the article are as follows:- mathematical models of dependencies of geometric and kinematic parameters, changing during the sputtering process and characterizing each considered point on the surface of the work piece, on the current position of the work piece in the structure of the planetary

Development of sea water pipe thickness measurement technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morimoto, Kazuo; Wakayama, Seiichi; Takeuchi, Iwao; Masamori, Sigero; Yamasita, Takesi.

1995-01-01

In nuclear and thermal power plants, wall wear of sea water pipes is reported to occur in the inner surface due to corrosion and erosion. From the viewpoint of improving the equipments reliability, it is desirable that wall thickness should be measured from the outer surface of the pipe during operation. In the conventional method, paint on the outer surface of the pipe was locally removed at each point of a 20 by 50 mm grid, and inspection was carried out at these spots. However, this method had some problems, such as (1) it was necessary to replace the paint, and (2) it was difficult to obtain the precise distribution of wall thickness. Therefore, we have developed a wall thickness measuring system which has the following features. (1) It is possible to perform inspection from the outer surface without removing paint during operation. (2) It is possible to measure the distribution of wall thickness and display it as color contour map simultaneously. (3) The work of inspectors can be alleviated by the automatic recording of measured data. (author)

Serviceability Assessment for Cascading Failures in Water Distribution Network under Seismic Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qing Shuang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The stability of water service is a hot point in industrial production, public safety, and academic research. The paper establishes a service evaluation model for the water distribution network (WDN. The serviceability is measured in three aspects: (1 the functionality of structural components under disaster environment; (2 the recognition of cascading failure process; and (3 the calculation of system reliability. The node and edge failures in WDN are interrelated under seismic excitations. The cascading failure process is provided with the balance of water supply and demand. The matrix-based system reliability (MSR method is used to represent the system events and calculate the nonfailure probability. An example is used to illustrate the proposed method. The cascading failure processes with different node failures are simulated. The serviceability is analyzed. The critical node can be identified. The result shows that the aged network has a greater influence on the system service under seismic scenario. The maintenance could improve the antidisaster ability of WDN. Priority should be given to controlling the time between the initial failure and the first secondary failure, for taking postdisaster emergency measures within this time period can largely cut down the spread of cascade effect in the whole WDN.

Lutzomyia longipalpis Presence and Abundance Distribution at Different Micro-spatial Scales in an Urban Scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Santini, María Soledad; Utgés, María Eugenia; Berrozpe, Pablo; Manteca Acosta, Mariana; Casas, Natalia; Heuer, Paola; Salomón, O Daniel

2015-01-01

The principal objective of this study was to assess a modeling approach to Lu. longipalpis distribution in an urban scenario, discriminating micro-scale landscape variables at microhabitat and macrohabitat scales and the presence from the abundance of the vector. For this objective, we studied vectors and domestic reservoirs and evaluated different environmental variables simultaneously, so we constructed a set of 13 models to account for micro-habitats, macro-habitats and mixed-habitats. We captured a total of 853 sandflies, of which 98.35% were Lu. longipalpis. We sampled a total of 197 dogs; 177 of which were associated with households where insects were sampled. Positive rK39 dogs represented 16.75% of the total, of which 47% were asymptomatic. Distance to the border of the city and high to medium density vegetation cover ended to be the explanatory variables, all positive, for the presence of sandflies in the city. All variables in the abundance model ended to be explanatory, trees around the trap, distance to the stream and its quadratic, being the last one the only one with negative coefficient indicating that the maximum abundance was associated with medium values of distance to the stream. The spatial distribution of dogs infected with L. infantum showed a heterogeneous pattern throughout the city; however, we could not confirm an association of the distribution with the variables assessed. In relation to Lu. longipalpis distribution, the strategy to discriminate the micro-spatial scales at which the environmental variables were recorded allowed us to associate presence with macrohabitat variables and abundance with microhabitat and macrohabitat variables. Based on the variables associated with Lu. longipalpis, the model will be validated in other cities and environmental surveillance, and control interventions will be proposed and evaluated in the microscale level and integrated with socio-cultural approaches and programmatic and village (mesoscale

Projected future distributions of vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under climate change scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miroslava Garza

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempts to evaluate risk for Chagas disease must focus on the ecology and biogeography of these vectors. Expected distributional shifts of vector species due to climate change are likely to alter spatial patterns of risk of Chagas disease, presumably through northward expansion of high risk areas in North America.We forecast the future (2050 distributions in North America of Triatoma gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga, two of the most common triatomine species and important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in the southern United States. Our aim was to analyze how climate change might affect the future shift of Chagas disease in North America using a maximum entropy algorithm to predict changes in suitable habitat based on vector occurrence points and predictive environmental variables. Projections based on three different general circulation models (CCCMA, CSIRO, and HADCM3 and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2 were analyzed. Twenty models were developed for each case and evaluated via cross-validation. The final model averages result from all twenty of these models. All models had AUC >0.90, which indicates that the models are robust. Our results predict a potential northern shift in the distribution of T. gerstaeckeri and a northern and southern distributional shift of T. sanguisuga from its current range due to climate change.The results of this study provide baseline information for monitoring the northward shift of potential risk from Chagas disease in the face of climate change.

Methods for determining the wall thickness variation of tubular heaters used in thermalhydraulic studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cubizolles, G.; Garnier, J.; Groeneveld, D.; Tanase, A.

2009-01-01

Fuel bundle simulators used in thermalhydraulic studies typically consist of bundles of directly heated tubes. It is usually assumed that the heater tubes have a uniform circumferential heat flux distribution. In practice, this heat flux distribution is never exactly uniform because of wall thickness variations and bore eccentricity. Ignoring the non-uniformity in wall thickness can lead to under-estimating the local heat transfer coefficients. During nucleate boiling tests in a 5x5 PWR-type bundle subassembly at CEA-Grenoble, a sinusoidal temperature distribution was observed around the inside circumference of the heater rods. These heater rods were equipped with high-accuracy sliding thermocouple probes that permit the detailed measurement of the internal wall temperature distribution, both axially and circumferentially. The sinusoidal temperature distribution strongly suggests a variation in wall thickness. A methodology was subsequently derived to determine the circumferential wall thickness variation. The method is based on the principle that for directly heated fuel-element simulators, the nucleate boiling wall superheat at high pressures is nearly uniform around the heater rod circumference. The results show wall thickness variations of up to ±4% which was confirmed by subsequent ultrasonic wall-thickness measurements performed after bundle disassembly. Non-uniformities in circumferential temperature distributions were also observed during parallel thermalhydraulic tests at the University of Ottawa (UofO) on an electrically heated tube cooled internally by R-134a and equipped with fixed thermocouples on the outside. From the measured wall temperatures and knowledge of the inside heat transfer coefficient or wall temperature distribution, the variations in wall thickness and surface heat flux to the coolant were evaluated by solving conduction equations using three separate sets of data (1) single phase heat transfer data, (2) nucleate boiling data, and (3

Eddy current technologies for thick metal structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takagi, Toshiyuki; Endo, Hisashi

2004-01-01

One of approach of an eddy current testing (ECT) for thick metal structures is introduced. The detection limit of ECT is capable of enlarging thick more than 10 mm, which is ordinarily about 5 mm, by the design of probe. On the basis of results of numerical analysis, the defect detection in thick and shape is evaluated by the distribution of experimental ECT signals. The problems of ECT for thick metal structures and measures, approach to probe design, the specifications of probe, evaluation of experimental results and defect detection are described. By ECT fast simulator, good slit sharp is simulated in the case of 10 and 20 mm of EDM slit length and 5, 10 and 15 mm of slit height. (S.Y.)

Sampling supraglacial debris thickness using terrestrial photogrammetry

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholson, Lindsey; Mertes, Jordan

2017-04-01

The melt rate of debris-covered ice differs to that of clean ice primarily as a function of debris thickness. The spatial distribution of supraglacial debris thickness must therefore be known in order to understand how it is likely to impact glacier behaviour, and meltwater contribution to local hydrological resources and global sea level rise. However, practical means of determining debris cover thickness remain elusive. In this study we explore the utility of terrestrial photogrammetry to produce high resolution, scaled and texturized digital terrain models of debris cover exposures above ice cliffs as a means of quantifying and characterizing debris thickness. Two Nikon D5000 DSLRs with Tamron 100mm lenses were used to photograph a sample area of the Ngozumpa glacier in the Khumbu Himal of Nepal in April 2016. A Structure from Motion workflow using Agisoft Photoscan software was used to generate a surface models with <10cm resolution. A Trimble Geo7X differential GPS with Zephyr antenna, along with a local base station, was used to precisely measure marked ground control points to scale the photogrammetric surface model. Measurements of debris thickness along the exposed cliffline were made from this scaled model, assuming that the ice surface at the debris-ice boundary is horizontal, and these data are compared to 50 manual point measurements along the same clifftops. We conclude that sufficiently high resolution photogrammetry, with precise scaling information, provides a useful means to determine debris thickness at clifftop exposures. The resolution of the possible measurements depends on image resolution, the accuracy of the ground control points and the computational capacity to generate centimetre scale surface models. Application of such techniques to sufficiently high resolution imagery from UAV-borne cameras may offer a powerful means of determining debris thickness distribution patterns over debris covered glacier termini.

Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

2005-11-01

Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

Soil erosion simulations of land use scenarios for a small Loess Plateau catchment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Messing, I.; Hessel, R.; Chen Liding,; Ritsema, C.J.; Stolte, J.

2003-01-01

Several land use scenarios were developed for the 3.5 km2 Danangou catchment on the Chinese Loess Plateau. These scenarios consist of four groups of three scenarios each: one group is based on the present land use distribution, the other three (alternative land uses) on a redistribution of land use

Correlation between blister skin thickness, the maximum in the damage-energy distribution, and projected ranges of helium ions in Nb for the energy range 10 to 1500 keV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

St-Jacques, R.G.; Martel, J.G.; Terreault, B.; Veilleux, G.; Das, S.K.; Kaminsky, M.; Fenske, G.

1976-01-01

The skin thickness of blisters formed on polycrystalline niobium by 4 He + irradiation at room temperature for energies from 15 to 80 keV have been measured. Similar measurements were conducted for 10 keV 4 He + irradiation at 500 0 C to increase blister exfoliation, and thereby allow examination of a larger number of blister skins. For energies smaller than 100 keV the skin thicknesses are compared with the projected range and the damage-energy distributions constructed from moments interpolated from Winterbon's tabulated values. For energies of 10 and 15 keV the projected ranges and damage-energy distributions have also been computed with a Monte Carlo program. For energies larger than 100 keV the projected ranges of 4 He + in Nb were calculated using either Brice's formalism or the one given by Schiott. The thicknesses for 60 and 80 keV, and those reported earlier for 100 to 1500 keV correlate well with calculated projected ranges. For energies lower than 60 keV the measured thicknesses are larger than the calculated ranges

Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Qin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cui, Mingjian [University of Texas at Dallas; Feng, Cong [University of Texas at Dallas; Wang, Zhenke [University of Texas at Dallas; Zhang, Jie [University of Texas at Dallas

2018-02-01

Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power and currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start-time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

Scenarios of land cover in China

Science.gov (United States)

Yue, Tian Xiang; Fan, Ze Meng; Liu, Ji Yuan

2007-02-01

A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would decrease and woodland would expand greatly with climatic change, which coincides with consequences expected by implementation of Grain-for-Green policy. Nival area would shrink, and desertification area would expand at a comparatively slow rate in future 100 years. Climate change would generally cause less ecotope diversity and more patch connectivity. Ecosystems in China would have a pattern of beneficial cycle after efficient ecological conservation and restoration. However, if human activities would exceed regulation capacity of ecosystems themselves, the ecosystems in China might deteriorate more seriously.

Multicell Cooperation for LTE-Advanced Heterogeneous Network Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soret, Beatriz; Wang, Hua; Rosa, Claudio

2013-01-01

In this article we present two promising practical use cases for simple multicell cooperation for LTE-Advanced heterogeneous network (HetNet) scenarios with macro and small cells. For co-channel deployment cases, we recommend the use of enhanced inter-cell interference coordination (e......ICIC) to mitigate cross-tier interference and ensure sufficient offload of users from macro to small cells. It is shown how the eICIC benefit is maximized by using a distributed inter-base station control framework for dynamic adjustment of essential parameters. Secondly, for scenarios where macro and small cells...... are deployed at different carriers an efficient use of the fragmented spectrum can be achieved by using collaborative inter-site carrier aggregation. In addition to distributed coordination/collaboration between base station nodes, the importance of explicit terminal assistance is highlighted. Comprehensive...

The formation of kappa-distribution accelerated electron populations in solar flares

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bian, Nicolas H.; Stackhouse, Duncan J.; Kontar, Eduard P. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ (United Kingdom); Emslie, A. Gordon, E-mail: n.bian@physics.gla.ac.uk, E-mail: d.stackhouse.1@research.gla.ac.uk, E-mail: eduard@astro.gla.ac.uk, E-mail: emslieg@wku.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY 42101 (United States)

2014-12-01

Driven by recent RHESSI observations of confined loop-top hard X-ray sources in solar flares, we consider stochastic acceleration of electrons in the presence of Coulomb collisions. If electron escape from the acceleration region can be neglected, the electron distribution function is determined by a balance between diffusive acceleration and collisions. Such a scenario admits a stationary solution for the electron distribution function that takes the form of a kappa distribution. We show that the evolution toward this kappa distribution involves a 'wave front' propagating forward in velocity space, so that electrons of higher energy are accelerated later; the acceleration timescales with energy according to τ{sub acc} ∼ E {sup 3/2}. At sufficiently high energies escape from the finite-length acceleration region will eventually dominate. For such energies, the electron velocity distribution function is obtained by solving a time-dependent Fokker-Planck equation in the 'leaky-box' approximation. Solutions are obtained in the limit of a small escape rate from an acceleration region that can effectively be considered a thick target.

Effect of pesticide fate parameters and their uncertainty on the selection of 'worst-case' scenarios of pesticide leaching to groundwater.

Science.gov (United States)

Vanderborght, Jan; Tiktak, Aaldrik; Boesten, Jos J T I; Vereecken, Harry

2011-03-01

For the registration of pesticides in the European Union, model simulations for worst-case scenarios are used to demonstrate that leaching concentrations to groundwater do not exceed a critical threshold. A worst-case scenario is a combination of soil and climate properties for which predicted leaching concentrations are higher than a certain percentile of the spatial concentration distribution within a region. The derivation of scenarios is complicated by uncertainty about soil and pesticide fate parameters. As the ranking of climate and soil property combinations according to predicted leaching concentrations is different for different pesticides, the worst-case scenario for one pesticide may misrepresent the worst case for another pesticide, which leads to 'scenario uncertainty'. Pesticide fate parameter uncertainty led to higher concentrations in the higher percentiles of spatial concentration distributions, especially for distributions in smaller and more homogeneous regions. The effect of pesticide fate parameter uncertainty on the spatial concentration distribution was small when compared with the uncertainty of local concentration predictions and with the scenario uncertainty. Uncertainty in pesticide fate parameters and scenario uncertainty can be accounted for using higher percentiles of spatial concentration distributions and considering a range of pesticides for the scenario selection. Copyright © 2010 Society of Chemical Industry.

Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

2007-08-20

The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

Automated estimation of choroidal thickness distribution and volume based on OCT images of posterior visual section.

Science.gov (United States)

Vupparaboina, Kiran Kumar; Nizampatnam, Srinath; Chhablani, Jay; Richhariya, Ashutosh; Jana, Soumya

2015-12-01

A variety of vision ailments are indicated by anomalies in the choroid layer of the posterior visual section. Consequently, choroidal thickness and volume measurements, usually performed by experts based on optical coherence tomography (OCT) images, have assumed diagnostic significance. Now, to save precious expert time, it has become imperative to develop automated methods. To this end, one requires choroid outer boundary (COB) detection as a crucial step, where difficulty arises as the COB divides the choroidal granularity and the scleral uniformity only notionally, without marked brightness variation. In this backdrop, we measure the structural dissimilarity between choroid and sclera by structural similarity (SSIM) index, and hence estimate the COB by thresholding. Subsequently, smooth COB estimates, mimicking manual delineation, are obtained using tensor voting. On five datasets, each consisting of 97 adult OCT B-scans, automated and manual segmentation results agree visually. We also demonstrate close statistical match (greater than 99.6% correlation) between choroidal thickness distributions obtained algorithmically and manually. Further, quantitative superiority of our method is established over existing results by respective factors of 27.67% and 76.04% in two quotient measures defined relative to observer repeatability. Finally, automated choroidal volume estimation, being attempted for the first time, also yields results in close agreement with that of manual methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Archaeogeophysical tests in water saturated and under water scenarios at the Hydrogeosite Laboratory

Science.gov (United States)

Capozzoli, Luigi; De Martino, Gregory; Giampaolo, Valeria; Perciante, Felice; Rizzo, Enzo

2016-04-01

The growing interest in underwater archaeology as witnessed by numerous archaeological campaigns carried out in the Mediterranean region in marine and lacustrine environments involves a challenge of great importance for archaeogeophysical discipline. Through a careful use of geophysical techniques it is possible support archaeological research to identify and analyse the undiscovered cultural heritage placed under water located near rivers and sea. Over the past decades, geophysical methods were applied successfully in the field of archaeology: an integrated approach based on the use of electric, electromagnetic and magnetic techniques have showed the ability to individuate and reconstruct the presence of archaeological remains in the subsoil allowing to define their distribution in the space limiting the excavation activities. Moreover the capability of geophysics could be limited cause the low geophysical contrasts occurring between archaeological structures and surrounding environment; in particular problems of resolution, depth of investigation and sensitivity related to each adopted technique can result in a distorted reading of the subsurface behaviour preventing the identification of archaeological remains. This problem is amplified when geophysical approach is applied in very humid environments such as in lacustrine and marine scenarios, or in soils characterized by high clay content that make more difficult the propagation of geophysical signals. In order to improve our geophysical knowledge in lacustrine and coastal scenarios a complex and innovative research project was realized at the CNR laboratory of Hydrogeosite which permitted to perform an archaeogeophysical experiment in controlled conditions. The designed archaeological context was focused on the Roman age and various elements characterized by different shapes and materials were placed at different depths in the sub-soil. The preliminary project activities with some scenarios were presented last

Ice thickness measurements and volume estimates for glaciers in Norway

Science.gov (United States)

Andreassen, Liss M.; Huss, Matthias; Melvold, Kjetil; Elvehøy, Hallgeir; Winsvold, Solveig H.

2014-05-01

Whereas glacier areas in many mountain regions around the world now are well surveyed using optical satellite sensors and available in digital inventories, measurements of ice thickness are sparse in comparison and a global dataset does not exist. Since the 1980s ice thickness measurements have been carried out by ground penetrating radar on many glaciers in Norway, often as part of contract work for hydropower companies with the aim to calculate hydrological divides of ice caps. Measurements have been conducted on numerous glaciers, covering the largest ice caps as well as a few smaller mountain glaciers. However, so far no ice volume estimate for Norway has been derived from these measurements. Here, we give an overview of ice thickness measurements in Norway, and use a distributed model to interpolate and extrapolate the data to provide an ice volume estimate of all glaciers in Norway. We also compare the results to various volume-area/thickness-scaling approaches using values from the literature as well as scaling constants we obtained from ice thickness measurements in Norway. Glacier outlines from a Landsat-derived inventory from 1999-2006 together with a national digital elevation model were used as input data for the ice volume calculations. The inventory covers all glaciers in mainland Norway and consists of 2534 glaciers (3143 glacier units) covering an area of 2692 km2 ± 81 km2. To calculate the ice thickness distribution of glaciers in Norway we used a distributed model which estimates surface mass balance distribution, calculates the volumetric balance flux and converts it into thickness using the flow law for ice. We calibrated this model with ice thickness data for Norway, mainly by adjusting the mass balance gradient. Model results generally agree well with the measured values, however, larger deviations were found for some glaciers. The total ice volume of Norway was estimated to be 275 km3 ± 30 km3. From the ice thickness data set we selected

Erosion scenarios for Wellenberg

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klemenz, W.

1993-09-01

The proposed Wellenberg site for a radioactive waste repository is located between Altzellen in the Engelberger valley and the Oberrickenbach valley, in a thick Valanginian marl series. The marl is generally overlaid with unconsolidated rocks but reaches to the surface in some places. In contrast to the situation in the Oberbauenstock region this marl complex is not protected by an overlying erosion resistant series and exhibits a marked relief. The question therefore arises with respect to the Wellenberg site, to what extent will the marl (i.e. the repository host rock formation) be removed by erosion processes during the 100,000 years interval under consideration and what overburden will remain at the end of this period. This report presents the results of an investigation of the longterm behaviour of the proposed site in respect of those processes of erosion and deposition which can lead to changes in the terrain surface and its location relative to the repository. A wide range of possible scenarios encompassing different developments of climatic conditions during the 100,000 year period of interest, was investigated. In addition to the continuation of the present climate and the occurrence of a new ice age on the scale of the Wuerm glaciation the consequences of altered climatic conditions on erosion removal of the repository overburden were considered. Within the 100,000 year period of interest none of the scenarios considered leads to the exposure of the repository. (author) figs., tabs, refs

Definition of Distribution Network Tariffs Considering Distribution Generation and Demand Response

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soares, Tiago; Faria, Pedro; Vale, Zita

2014-01-01

The use of distribution networks in the current scenario of high penetration of Distributed Generation (DG) is a problem of great importance. In the competitive environment of electricity markets and smart grids, Demand Response (DR) is also gaining notable impact with several benefits for the wh......The use of distribution networks in the current scenario of high penetration of Distributed Generation (DG) is a problem of great importance. In the competitive environment of electricity markets and smart grids, Demand Response (DR) is also gaining notable impact with several benefits...... the determination of topological distribution factors, and consequent application of the MW-mile method. The application of the proposed tariffs definition methodology is illustrated in a distribution network with 33 buses, 66 DG units, and 32 consumers with DR capacity...

Fast neutron forward distributions from C, Be and U thick targets bombarded by deuterons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menard, S.; Clapier, F.; Pauwels, N.; Proust, J.; Donzaud, C.; Guillemaud-Mueller, D.; Lhenry, I.; Mueller, A.C.; Scarpaci, J.A.; Sorlin, O.; Mirea, M.

1999-01-01

In principle, to produce neutron rich radioactive beams with sufficient intensities, a source of isotopes far from the valley of β--stability can be obtained through the fission of 238 U induced by fast neutrons. A very promising way to assess the feasibility of these very intense neutron beams is to break an intense 2 H beam in a dedicated converter. The main objective of SPIRAL and PARRNe R - D projects is the investigation of the optimum parameters for a neutron rich isotope source in accordance with the scheme presented above. In such conditions, the charge particle energy loss can prevent the destruction of the fission target. In the frame of these project, a special attention is dedicated to the energetic and angular distributions of the neutrons emerging from a set of converters at a series of 2 H incident energies. Deuteron beams at energies less than 30 MeV are particularly interesting because it is expected that, after the decay in the 238 U target, the neutron rich radioactive fission products are cold enough, thus avoiding the evaporation of a too large number of neutrons. For such purposes, one needs experimental angular distributions at given energies for different types of converters and to elaborate a theoretical tool in order to estimate accurately the characteristics of the secondary neutron beam. In this paper, the experimental results were obtained with 17, 20 and 28 MeV deuteron energies on Be, C and U converters using the time of flight method. These data are compared to results given by a model valid at higher energy in order to obtain pertinent simulations in a large range of incident energies. Many theoretical tools were developed to characterize the properties of the neutron beams emerging from thick targets. In this contribution the Serber's model, considered with its improvements which account for the Coulomb deflection and the mean straggling of the beam in the material, is compared to experimental data in order to verify the validity

Numerical modeling of the thickness dependence of zinc die-cast materials

Science.gov (United States)

Page, Maria Angeles Martinez; Ruf, Matthias; Hartmann, Stefan

2017-11-01

Zinc die casting alloys show varying material properties over the thickness in their final solid state, which causes a change in the mechanical response for specimens with different thicknesses. In this article, we propose a modeling concept to account for the varying porosity in the constitutive modeling. The material properties are effectively incorporated by combining a partial differential equation describing the distribution of the pores by a structural parameter with the Mori-Tanaka approach for linear elasticity. The distribution of the porosity is determined by polished cut images, for which the procedure is explained in detail. Finite element simulations of the coupled system incorporating the thickness dependence show the applicability of this approach.

Ontario demand response scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowlands, I.H.

2005-09-01

Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Qin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cui, Mingjian [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Feng, Cong [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Wang, Zhenke [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Zhang, Jie [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States)

2017-08-31

Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power, and they are currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

Continuous thickness control of extruded pipes with assistance of microcomputers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Breil, J.

1983-06-01

Because of economic and quality securing reasons a constant wall thickness of extruded pipes in circumference and extrusion direction is an important production aim. Therefore a microcomputer controlled system was developed, which controls die centering with electric motors. The control of wall thickness distribution; was realized with two conceptions: a dead time subjected control with a rotating on line wall thickness measuring instrument and an adaptive control with sensors in the pipe die. With a PI-algorithm excentricities of 30% of the wall thickness could be controlled below a trigger level of 2% within three dead times. (orig.) [de

Evaluation of photovoltaic panel temperature in realistic scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du, Yanping; Fell, Christopher J.; Duck, Benjamin; Chen, Dong; Liffman, Kurt; Zhang, Yinan; Gu, Min; Zhu, Yonggang

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The developed realistic model captures more reasonably the thermal response and hysteresis effects. • The predicted panel temperature is as high as 60 °C under a solar irradiance of 1000 W/m"2 in no-wind weather. • In realistic scenarios, the thermal response normally takes 50–250 s. • The actual heating effect may cause a photoelectric efficiency drop of 2.9–9.0%. - Abstract: Photovoltaic (PV) panel temperature was evaluated by developing theoretical models that are feasible to be used in realistic scenarios. Effects of solar irradiance, wind speed and ambient temperature on the PV panel temperature were studied. The parametric study shows significant influence of solar irradiance and wind speed on the PV panel temperature. With an increase of ambient temperature, the temperature rise of solar cells is reduced. The characteristics of panel temperature in realistic scenarios were analyzed. In steady weather conditions, the thermal response time of a solar cell with a Si thickness of 100–500 μm is around 50–250 s. While in realistic scenarios, the panel temperature variation in a day is different from that in steady weather conditions due to the effect of thermal hysteresis. The heating effect on the photovoltaic efficiency was assessed based on real-time temperature measurement of solar cells in realistic weather conditions. For solar cells with a temperature coefficient in the range of −0.21%∼−0.50%, the current field tests indicated an approximate efficiency loss between 2.9% and 9.0%.

FEM Modeling of In-Plane Stress Distribution in Thick Brittle Coatings/Films on Ductile Substrates Subjected to Tensile Stress to Determine Interfacial Strength

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaishi Wang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The ceramic-metal interface is present in various material structures and devices that are vulnerable to failures, like cracking, which are typically due to their incompatible properties, e.g., thermal expansion mismatch. In failure of these multilayer systems, interfacial shear strength is a good measure of the robustness of interfaces, especially for planar films. There is a widely-used shear lag model and method by Agrawal and Raj to analyse and measure the interfacial shear strength of thin brittle film on ductile substrates. The use of this classical model for a type of polymer derived ceramic coatings (thickness ~18 μm on steel substrate leads to high values of interfacial shear strength. Here, we present finite element simulations for such a coating system when it is subjected to in-plane tension. Results show that the in-plane stresses in the coating are non-uniform, i.e., varying across the thickness of the film. Therefore, they do not meet one of the basic assumptions of the classical model: uniform in-plane stress. Furthermore, effects of three significant parameters, film thickness, crack spacing, and Young’s modulus, on the in-plane stress distribution have also been investigated. ‘Thickness-averaged In-plane Stress’ (TIS, a new failure criterion, is proposed for estimating the interfacial shear strength, which leads to a more realistic estimation of the tensile strength and interfacial shear strength of thick brittle films/coatings on ductile substrates.

FEM Modeling of In-Plane Stress Distribution in Thick Brittle Coatings/Films on Ductile Substrates Subjected to Tensile Stress to Determine Interfacial Strength.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Kaishi; Zhang, Fangzhou; Bordia, Rajendra K

2018-03-27

The ceramic-metal interface is present in various material structures and devices that are vulnerable to failures, like cracking, which are typically due to their incompatible properties, e.g., thermal expansion mismatch. In failure of these multilayer systems, interfacial shear strength is a good measure of the robustness of interfaces, especially for planar films. There is a widely-used shear lag model and method by Agrawal and Raj to analyse and measure the interfacial shear strength of thin brittle film on ductile substrates. The use of this classical model for a type of polymer derived ceramic coatings (thickness ~18 μm) on steel substrate leads to high values of interfacial shear strength. Here, we present finite element simulations for such a coating system when it is subjected to in-plane tension. Results show that the in-plane stresses in the coating are non-uniform, i.e., varying across the thickness of the film. Therefore, they do not meet one of the basic assumptions of the classical model: uniform in-plane stress. Furthermore, effects of three significant parameters, film thickness, crack spacing, and Young's modulus, on the in-plane stress distribution have also been investigated. 'Thickness-averaged In-plane Stress' (TIS), a new failure criterion, is proposed for estimating the interfacial shear strength, which leads to a more realistic estimation of the tensile strength and interfacial shear strength of thick brittle films/coatings on ductile substrates.

Tungsten thick coatings for plasma facing components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Riccardi, B.; Pizzuto, A.; Orsini, A.; Libera, S.; Visca, E.; Bertamini, L.; Casadei, F.; Severini, E.; Montanari, R.; Litunovsky, N.

1998-01-01

The aim of the R and D activity was to realize thick W coatings on CuCrZr hollow bars and to test the mock ups with respect to thermal fatigue. Eight mock ups provided of 4 mm thick W coating were finally manufactured. The bonding integrity between coating and substrate was checked by means of an Ultrasonic apparatus. Characterisation of coatings was performed in order to assess microstructure, impurity content, density, tensile strength, adhesion strength, thermal conductivity and thermal expansion coefficient. Macroscopic residual strain measurements were performed by means of 'hole drilling' technique. The activities performed demonstrated the feasibility of thick Tungsten coatings on geometries with more complex residual strain distribution. These coatings are reliable armour of medium heat flux plasma facing component. (author)

Buckling Response of Thick Functionally Graded Plates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

BOUAZZA MOKHTAR

2014-11-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the buckling of a functionally graded plate is studied by using first order shear deformation theory (FSDT. The material properties of the plate are assumed to be graded continuously in the direction of thickness. The variation of the material properties follows a simple power-law distribution in terms of the volume fractions of constituents. The von Karman strains are used to construct the equilibrium equations of the plates subjected to two types of thermal loading, linear temperature rise and gradient through the thickness are considered. The governing equations are reduced to linear differential equation with boundary conditions yielding a simple solution procedure. In addition, the effects of temperature field, volume fraction distributions, and system geometric parameters are investigated. The results are compared with the results of the no shear deformation theory (classic plate theory, CPT.

Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

2014-04-01

Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

Local re-acceleration and a modified thick target model of solar flare electrons

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, J. C.; Turkmani, R.; Kontar, E. P.; MacKinnon, A. L.; Vlahos, L.

2009-12-01

Context: The collisional thick target model (CTTM) of solar hard X-ray (HXR) bursts has become an almost “standard model” of flare impulsive phase energy transport and radiation. However, it faces various problems in the light of recent data, particularly the high electron beam density and anisotropy it involves. Aims: We consider how photon yield per electron can be increased, and hence fast electron beam intensity requirements reduced, by local re-acceleration of fast electrons throughout the HXR source itself, after injection. Methods: We show parametrically that, if net re-acceleration rates due to e.g. waves or local current sheet electric (E) fields are a significant fraction of collisional loss rates, electron lifetimes, and hence the net radiative HXR output per electron can be substantially increased over the CTTM values. In this local re-acceleration thick target model (LRTTM) fast electron number requirements and anisotropy are thus reduced. One specific possible scenario involving such re-acceleration is discussed, viz, a current sheet cascade (CSC) in a randomly stressed magnetic loop. Results: Combined MHD and test particle simulations show that local E fields in CSCs can efficiently accelerate electrons in the corona and and re-accelerate them after injection into the chromosphere. In this HXR source scenario, rapid synchronisation and variability of impulsive footpoint emissions can still occur since primary electron acceleration is in the high Alfvén speed corona with fast re-acceleration in chromospheric CSCs. It is also consistent with the energy-dependent time-of-flight delays in HXR features. Conclusions: Including electron re-acceleration in the HXR source allows an LRTTM modification of the CTTM in which beam density and anisotropy are much reduced, and alleviates theoretical problems with the CTTM, while making it more compatible with radio and interplanetary electron numbers. The LRTTM is, however, different in some respects such as

Concept development of X-ray mass thickness detection for irradiated items upon electron beam irradiation processing

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Huaili; Yang, Guang; Kuang, Shan; Wang, Qiang; Liu, Jingjing; Zhang, Xiaomin; Li, Cancan; Han, Zhiwei; Li, Yuanjing

2018-02-01

The present project will adopt the principle and technology of X-ray imaging to quickly measure the mass thickness (wherein the mass thickness of the item =density of the item × thickness of the item) of the irradiated items and thus to determine whether the packaging size and inside location of the item will meet the requirements for treating thickness upon electron beam irradiation processing. The development of algorithm of X-ray mass thickness detector as well as the prediction of dose distribution have been completed. The development of the algorithm was based on the X-ray attenuation. 4 standard modules, Al sheet, Al ladders, PMMA sheet and PMMA ladders, were selected for the algorithm development. The algorithm was optimized until the error between tested mass thickness and standard mass thickness was less than 5%. Dose distribution of all energy (1-10 MeV) for each mass thickness was obtained using Monte-carlo method and used for the analysis of dose distribution, which provides the information of whether the item will be penetrated or not, as well as the Max. dose, Min. dose and DUR of the whole item.

Scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

Large scale experiments simulating hydrogen distribution in a spent fuel pool building during a hypothetical fuel uncovery accident scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mignot, Guillaume; Paranjape, Sidharth; Paladino, Domenico; Jaeckel, Bernd; Rydl, Adolf [Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen (Switzerland)

2016-08-15

Following the Fukushima accident and its extended station blackout, attention was brought to the importance of the spent fuel pools' (SFPs) behavior in case of a prolonged loss of the cooling system. Since then, many analytical works have been performed to estimate the timing of hypothetical fuel uncovery for various SFP types. Experimentally, however, little was done to investigate issues related to the formation of a flammable gas mixture, distribution, and stratification in the SFP building itself and to some extent assess the capability for the code to correctly predict it. This paper presents the main outcomes of the Experiments on Spent Fuel Pool (ESFP) project carried out under the auspices of Swissnuclear (Framework 2012–2013) in the PANDA facility at the Paul Scherrer Institut in Switzerland. It consists of an experimental investigation focused on hydrogen concentration build-up into a SFP building during a predefined scaled scenario for different venting positions. Tests follow a two-phase scenario. Initially steam is released to mimic the boiling of the pool followed by a helium/steam mixture release to simulate the deterioration of the oxidizing spent fuel. Results shows that while the SFP building would mainly be inerted by the presence of a high concentration of steam, the volume located below the level of the pool in adjacent rooms would maintain a high air content. The interface of the two-gas mixture presents the highest risk of flammability. Additionally, it was observed that the gas mixture could become stagnant leading locally to high hydrogen concentration while steam condenses. Overall, the experiments provide relevant information for the potentially hazardous gas distribution formed in the SFP building and hints on accident management and on eventual retrofitting measures to be implemented in the SFP building.

Mapping distribution and thickness of supraglacial debris in the Central Karakoram National Park: main features and implications to model glacier meltwater

Science.gov (United States)

Minora, Umberto; Mayer, Christoph; Bocchiola, Daniele; D'Agata, Carlo; Maragno, Davide; Lambrecht, Astrid; Vuillermoz, Elisa; smiraglia, claudio; diolaiuti, guglielmina

2014-05-01

Supraglacial debris plays a not negligible role in controlling magnitude and rates of buried ice melt (Østrem, 1959; Mattson et al., 1993). Knowledge on rock debris is essential to model ice melt (and consequently meltwater discharge) upon wide glacierized areas, as melt rates are mainly driven by debris thickness variability. This is particularly important for the Pamir-Himalaya-Karakoram area (PHK), where debris-covered glaciers are frequent (Smiraglia et al., 2007; Scherler et al., 2011) and where melt water from glaciers supports agriculture and hydropower production. By means of remote sensing techniques and field data, supraglacial debris can be detected, and then quantified in area and thickness. Supervised classifications of satellite imagery can be used to map debris on glaciers. They use different algorithms to cluster an image based on its pixel values, and Region Of Interests (ROIs) previously selected by the human operator. This can be used to obtain a supraglacial debris mask by which surface extension can be calculated. Moreover, kinetic surface temperature data derived from satellites (such as ASTER and Landsat), can be used to quantify debris thicknesses (Mihalcea et al., 2008). Ground Control Points (GCPs) are essential to validate the obtained debris thicknesses. We took the Central Karakoram National Park (CKNP) as a representative sample for PHK area. The CKNP is 12,000 km2 wide, with more than 700 glaciers, mostly debris covered (Minora et al., 2013). Among those we find some of the widest glaciers of the World (e.g: Baltoro). To improve the knowledge on these glaciers and to better model their melt and water discharge we proceeded as follows. Firstly we ran a Supervised Maximum Likelihood (SML) classification on 2001 and 2010 Landsat images to detect debris presence and distribution. Secondly we analyzed kinetic surface temperature (from Landsat) to map debris depth. This latter attempt took also advantage from field data of debris thickness

MR-based three-dimensional presentation of cartilage thickness in the femoral head

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakanishi, Katsuyuki; Tanaka, Hisashi; Nakamura, Hironobu; Sato, Yoshinobu; Kubota, Tetsuya; Tamura, Shinichi; Ueguchi, Takashi

2001-01-01

The purpose of our study was to visualize the hyaline cartilage of the femoral head and to evaluate the distribution of the thickness by three-dimensional reconstruction of MRI data. The MRI was performed in 10 normal volunteers, 1 patient with osteonecrosis and 4 with advanced osteoarthritis. A fast 3D spoiled gradient-recalled acquisition in the steady state pulse sequence (TR 22 ms/TE 5.6 ms/no. of excitations 2) with fat suppression was used for data collection. Coronal and sagittal images were obtained with 3-mm effective slice thickness, 16-cm field of view (FOV) and 256 x 192 matrix. The MR images were reconstructed in three dimensions for evaluating the distribution of the cartilage thickness. In all normal volunteers, 1 patient with osteonecrosis and three advanced osteoarthritis, 3D reconstruction was successful, but in 1 case of osteoarthritis, 3D reconstruction failed because of the narrow joint space. In normal volunteers, the cartilage thickness is thickest in the central portion around the ligamentum teres (mean 2.8 mm). The medial portion and the lateral portion are almost of the same thickness (medial 1.3 mm, lateral 1.1 mm). In 3 cases of osteoarthritis, the cartilage became thinner in the lateral portions (<0.6 mm), but was unchanged in the central and medial portions. Three-dimensional reconstruction of MRI data is useful for evaluating the distribution of the cartilage thickness of the femoral head objectively. (orig.)

MR-based three-dimensional presentation of cartilage thickness in the femoral head

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nakanishi, Katsuyuki [Dept. of Radiology, Osaka Seamen' s Insurance Hospital (Japan); Tanaka, Hisashi; Nakamura, Hironobu [Osaka Univ. (Japan). Dept. of Radiology; Sugano, Nobuhiko [Dept. of Orthopedic Surgery, Osaka University Medical School (Japan); Sato, Yoshinobu; Kubota, Tetsuya; Tamura, Shinichi [Div. of Functional Imaging, Osaka University Medical School (Japan); Ueguchi, Takashi [Dept. of Radiology, Osaka University Medical Hospital (Japan)

2001-11-01

The purpose of our study was to visualize the hyaline cartilage of the femoral head and to evaluate the distribution of the thickness by three-dimensional reconstruction of MRI data. The MRI was performed in 10 normal volunteers, 1 patient with osteonecrosis and 4 with advanced osteoarthritis. A fast 3D spoiled gradient-recalled acquisition in the steady state pulse sequence (TR 22 ms/TE 5.6 ms/no. of excitations 2) with fat suppression was used for data collection. Coronal and sagittal images were obtained with 3-mm effective slice thickness, 16-cm field of view (FOV) and 256 x 192 matrix. The MR images were reconstructed in three dimensions for evaluating the distribution of the cartilage thickness. In all normal volunteers, 1 patient with osteonecrosis and three advanced osteoarthritis, 3D reconstruction was successful, but in 1 case of osteoarthritis, 3D reconstruction failed because of the narrow joint space. In normal volunteers, the cartilage thickness is thickest in the central portion around the ligamentum teres (mean 2.8 mm). The medial portion and the lateral portion are almost of the same thickness (medial 1.3 mm, lateral 1.1 mm). In 3 cases of osteoarthritis, the cartilage became thinner in the lateral portions (<0.6 mm), but was unchanged in the central and medial portions. Three-dimensional reconstruction of MRI data is useful for evaluating the distribution of the cartilage thickness of the femoral head objectively. (orig.)

A novel method for energy harvesting simulation based on scenario generation

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhe; Li, Taoshen; Xiao, Nan; Ye, Jin; Wu, Min

2018-06-01

Energy harvesting network (EHN) is a new form of computer networks. It converts ambient energy into usable electric energy and supply the electrical energy as a primary or secondary power source to the communication devices. However, most of the EHN uses the analytical probability distribution function to describe the energy harvesting process, which cannot accurately identify the actual situation for the lack of authenticity. We propose an EHN simulation method based on scenario generation in this paper. Firstly, instead of setting a probability distribution in advance, it uses optimal scenario reduction technology to generate representative scenarios in single period based on the historical data of the harvested energy. Secondly, it uses homogeneous simulated annealing algorithm to generate optimal daily energy harvesting scenario sequences to get a more accurate simulation of the random characteristics of the energy harvesting network. Then taking the actual wind power data as an example, the accuracy and stability of the method are verified by comparing with the real data. Finally, we cite an instance to optimize the network throughput, which indicate the feasibility and effectiveness of the method we proposed from the optimal solution and data analysis in energy harvesting simulation.

Influence of pH, layer charge location and crystal thickness distribution on U(VI) sorption onto heterogeneous dioctahedral smectite

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guimarães, Vanessa [Instituto de Ciências da Terra – Porto, DGAOT, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, Rua do Campo Alegre 687, 4169-007 Porto (Portugal); Geobiotec. Departamento de Geociências da Universidade de Aveiro, Campo Universitário de Santiago, 3810-193 Aveiro (Portugal); Rodríguez-Castellón, Enrique; Algarra, Manuel [Departamento de Química Inorgánica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Teatino s/n, 29071 Málaga (Spain); Rocha, Fernando [Geobiotec. Departamento de Geociências da Universidade de Aveiro, Campo Universitário de Santiago, 3810-193 Aveiro (Portugal); Bobos, Iuliu, E-mail: ibobos@fc.up.pt [Instituto de Ciências da Terra – Porto, DGAOT, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, Rua do Campo Alegre 687, 4169-007 Porto (Portugal)

2016-11-05

Highlights: • The UO{sub 2}{sup 2+} sorption at pH 4 and 6 on heterogeneous smectite structure. • The cation exchange process is affected by layer charge distribution. • Surface complexation and cation exchange modelling. • New binding energy components identified by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. - Abstract: The UO{sub 2}{sup 2+} adsorption on smectite (samples BA1, PS2 and PS3) with a heterogeneous structure was investigated at pH 4 (I = 0.02 M) and pH 6 (I = 0.2 M) in batch experiments, with the aim to evaluate the influence of pH, layer charge location and crystal thickness distribution. Mean crystal thickness distribution of smectite crystallite used in sorption experiments range from 4.8 nm (sample PS2), to 5.1 nm (sample PS3) and, to 7.4 nm (sample BA1). Smaller crystallites have higher total surface area and sorption capacity. Octahedral charge location favor higher sorption capacity. The sorption isotherms of Freundlich, Langmuir and SIPS were used to model the sorption experiments. The surface complexation and cation exchange reactions were modeled using PHREEQC-code to describe the UO{sub 2}{sup 2+} sorption on smectite. The amount of UO{sub 2}{sup 2+} adsorbed on smectite samples decreased significantly at pH 6 and higher ionic strength, where the sorption mechanism was restricted to the edge sites of smectite. Two binding energy components at 380.8 ± 0.3 and 382.2 ± 0.3 eV, assigned to hydrated UO{sub 2}{sup 2+} adsorbed by cation exchange and by inner-sphere complexation on the external sites at pH 4, were identified after the U4f{sub 7/2} peak deconvolution by X-photoelectron spectroscopy. Also, two new binding energy components at 380.3 ± 0.3 and 381.8 ± 0.3 eV assigned to ≡AlOUO{sub 2}{sup +} and ≡SiOUO{sub 2}{sup +} surface species were observed at pH 6.

Influence of pH, layer charge location and crystal thickness distribution on U(VI) sorption onto heterogeneous dioctahedral smectite

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guimarães, Vanessa; Rodríguez-Castellón, Enrique; Algarra, Manuel; Rocha, Fernando; Bobos, Iuliu

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The UO_2"2"+ sorption at pH 4 and 6 on heterogeneous smectite structure. • The cation exchange process is affected by layer charge distribution. • Surface complexation and cation exchange modelling. • New binding energy components identified by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. - Abstract: The UO_2"2"+ adsorption on smectite (samples BA1, PS2 and PS3) with a heterogeneous structure was investigated at pH 4 (I = 0.02 M) and pH 6 (I = 0.2 M) in batch experiments, with the aim to evaluate the influence of pH, layer charge location and crystal thickness distribution. Mean crystal thickness distribution of smectite crystallite used in sorption experiments range from 4.8 nm (sample PS2), to 5.1 nm (sample PS3) and, to 7.4 nm (sample BA1). Smaller crystallites have higher total surface area and sorption capacity. Octahedral charge location favor higher sorption capacity. The sorption isotherms of Freundlich, Langmuir and SIPS were used to model the sorption experiments. The surface complexation and cation exchange reactions were modeled using PHREEQC-code to describe the UO_2"2"+ sorption on smectite. The amount of UO_2"2"+ adsorbed on smectite samples decreased significantly at pH 6 and higher ionic strength, where the sorption mechanism was restricted to the edge sites of smectite. Two binding energy components at 380.8 ± 0.3 and 382.2 ± 0.3 eV, assigned to hydrated UO_2"2"+ adsorbed by cation exchange and by inner-sphere complexation on the external sites at pH 4, were identified after the U4f_7_/_2 peak deconvolution by X-photoelectron spectroscopy. Also, two new binding energy components at 380.3 ± 0.3 and 381.8 ± 0.3 eV assigned to ≡AlOUO_2"+ and ≡SiOUO_2"+ surface species were observed at pH 6.

Air quality impacts of distributed power generation in the South Coast Air Basin of California 1: Scenario development and modeling analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez, M. A.; Carreras-Sospedra, M.; Medrano, M.; Brouwer, J.; Samuelsen, G. S.; Dabdub, D.

Distributed generation (DG) is generally defined as the operation of many small stationary power generators throughout an urban air basin. Although DG has the potential to supply a significant portion of the increased power demands in California and the rest of the United States, it may lead to increased levels of in-basin pollutants and adversely impact urban air quality. This study focuses on two main objectives: (1) the systematic characterization of DG installation in urban air basins, and (2) the simulation of potential air quality impacts using a state-of-the-art three-dimensional computational model. A general and systematic approach is devised to construct five realistic and 21 spanning scenarios of DG implementation in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) of California. Realistic scenarios reflect an anticipated level of DG deployment in the SoCAB by the year 2010. Spanning scenarios are developed to determine the potential impacts of unexpected outcomes. Realistic implementations of DG in the SoCAB result in small differences in ozone and particulate matter concentrations in the basin compared to the baseline simulations. The baseline accounts for population increase, but does not consider any future emissions control measures. Model results for spanning implementations with extra high DG market penetration show that domain-wide ozone peak concentrations increase significantly. Also, air quality impacts of spanning implementations when DG operate during a 6-h period are larger than when the same amount of emissions are introduced during a 24-h period.

Self-heating forecasting for thick laminate specimens in fatigue

Science.gov (United States)

Lahuerta, F.; Westphal, T.; Nijssen, R. P. L.

2014-12-01

Thick laminate sections can be found from the tip to the root in most common wind turbine blade designs. Obtaining accurate and reliable design data for thick laminates is subject of investigations, which include experiments on thick laminate coupons. Due to the poor thermal conductivity properties of composites and the material self-heating that occurs during the fatigue loading, high temperature gradients may appear through the laminate thickness. In the case of thick laminates in high load regimes, the core temperature might influence the mechanical properties, leading to premature failures. In the present work a method to forecast the self-heating of thick laminates in fatigue loading is presented. The mechanical loading is related with the laminate self-heating, via the cyclic strain energy and the energy loss ratio. Based on this internal volumetric heat load a thermal model is built and solved to obtain the temperature distribution in the transient state. Based on experimental measurements of the energy loss factor for 10mm thick coupons, the method is described and the resulting predictions are compared with experimental surface temperature measurements on 10 and 30mm UD thick laminate specimens.

Fluid-Structure Simulations of a Ruptured Intracranial Aneurysm: Constant versus Patient-Specific Wall Thickness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Voß

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Computational Fluid Dynamics is intensively used to deepen the understanding of aneurysm growth and rupture in order to support physicians during therapy planning. However, numerous studies considering only the hemodynamics within the vessel lumen found no satisfactory criteria for rupture risk assessment. To improve available simulation models, the rigid vessel wall assumption has been discarded in this work and patient-specific wall thickness is considered within the simulation. For this purpose, a ruptured intracranial aneurysm was prepared ex vivo, followed by the acquisition of local wall thickness using μCT. The segmented inner and outer vessel surfaces served as solid domain for the fluid-structure interaction (FSI simulation. To compare wall stress distributions within the aneurysm wall and at the rupture site, FSI computations are repeated in a virtual model using a constant wall thickness approach. Although the wall stresses obtained by the two approaches—when averaged over the complete aneurysm sac—are in very good agreement, strong differences occur in their distribution. Accounting for the real wall thickness distribution, the rupture site exhibits much higher stress values compared to the configuration with constant wall thickness. The study reveals the importance of geometry reconstruction and accurate description of wall thickness in FSI simulations.

Caving thickness effects of surrounding rocks macro stress shell evolving characteristics

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

XIE Guang-xiang; YANG Ke

2009-01-01

In order to explore the influence of different caving thicknesses on the MSS dis-tribution and evolving characteristics of surrounding rocks in unsymmetrical disposal and fully mechanized top-coal caving (FMTC), based on unsymmetrical disposal characteris-tics, the analyses of numerical simulation, material simulation and in-situ observation were synthetically applied according to the geological and technical conditions of the 1151(3) working face in Xieqiao Mine. The results show that the stress peak value of the MSS-base and the ratio of MSS-body height to caving thickness are nonlinear and inversely proportional to the caving thickness. The MSS-base width, the MSS-body height, the MSS-base distance to working face wall and the rise distance of MSS-base beside coal pillar are nonlinear and directly proportional to the caving thickness. The characteristics of MSS distribution and its evolving rules of surrounding rocks and the integrated caving thickness effects are obtained. The investigations will provide lots of theoretic references to the surrounding rocks' stability control of the working face and roadway, roadway layout, gas extraction and exploitation, and efficiency of caving, etc.

Ion acceleration by radiation pressure in thin and thick targets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Macchi, Andrea, E-mail: macchi@df.unipi.i [CNR/INFM/polyLAB, Pisa (Italy); Dipartimento di Fisica ' Enrico Fermi' , Largo Bruno Pontecorvo 3, I-56127 Pisa (Italy); Benedetti, Carlo, E-mail: Carlo.Benedetti@bo.infn.i [Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Bologna and INFN, Via Irnerio 46, I-40126 Bologna (Italy)

2010-08-01

Radiation Pressure Acceleration (RPA) by circularly polarized laser pulses is emerging as a promising way to obtain efficient acceleration of ions. We briefly review theoretical work on the topic, aiming at characterizing suitable experimental scenarios. We discuss the two reference cases of RPA, namely the thick target ('Hole Boring') and the (ultra)thin target ('Light Sail') regimes. The different scaling laws of the two regimes, the related experimental challenges and their suitability for foreseen applications are discussed.

Design of Thermal Barrier Coatings Thickness for Gas Turbine Blade Based on Finite Element Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Biao Li

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs are deposited on the turbine blade to reduce the temperature of underlying substrate, as well as providing protection against the oxidation and hot corrosion from high temperature gas. Optimal ceramic top-coat thickness distribution on the blade can improve the performance and efficiency of the coatings. Design of the coatings thickness is a multiobjective optimization problem due to the conflicts among objectives of high thermal insulation performance, long operation durability, and low fabrication cost. This work developed a procedure for designing the TBCs thickness distribution for the gas turbine blade. Three-dimensional finite element models were built and analyzed, and weighted-sum approach was employed to solve the multiobjective optimization problem herein. Suitable multiregion top-coat thickness distribution scheme was designed with the considerations of manufacturing accuracy, productivity, and fabrication cost.

Influence of pH, layer charge location and crystal thickness distribution on U(VI) sorption onto heterogeneous dioctahedral smectite.

Science.gov (United States)

Guimarães, Vanessa; Rodríguez-Castellón, Enrique; Algarra, Manuel; Rocha, Fernando; Bobos, Iuliu

2016-11-05

The UO2(2+) adsorption on smectite (samples BA1, PS2 and PS3) with a heterogeneous structure was investigated at pH 4 (I=0.02M) and pH 6 (I=0.2M) in batch experiments, with the aim to evaluate the influence of pH, layer charge location and crystal thickness distribution. Mean crystal thickness distribution of smectite crystallite used in sorption experiments range from 4.8nm (sample PS2), to 5.1nm (sample PS3) and, to 7.4nm (sample BA1). Smaller crystallites have higher total surface area and sorption capacity. Octahedral charge location favor higher sorption capacity. The sorption isotherms of Freundlich, Langmuir and SIPS were used to model the sorption experiments. The surface complexation and cation exchange reactions were modeled using PHREEQC-code to describe the UO2(2+) sorption on smectite. The amount of UO2(2+) adsorbed on smectite samples decreased significantly at pH 6 and higher ionic strength, where the sorption mechanism was restricted to the edge sites of smectite. Two binding energy components at 380.8±0.3 and 382.2±0.3eV, assigned to hydrated UO2(2+) adsorbed by cation exchange and by inner-sphere complexation on the external sites at pH 4, were identified after the U4f7/2 peak deconvolution by X-photoelectron spectroscopy. Also, two new binding energy components at 380.3±0.3 and 381.8±0.3eV assigned to AlOUO2(+) and SiOUO2(+) surface species were observed at pH 6. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Braun, Kimberly

1997-01-01

.... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

Film thickness determining method of the silicon isotope superlattices by SIMS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takano, Akio; Shimizu, Yasuo; Itoh, Kohei M.

2008-01-01

It is becoming important to evaluate silicon self-diffusion with progress of a silicon semiconductor industry. In order to evaluate the self-diffusion of silicon, silicon isotope superlattices (SLs) is the only marker. For this reason, it is important to correctly evaluate a film thickness and a depth distribution of isotope SLs by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS). As for film thickness, it is difficult to estimate the thicknesses correctly if the cycles of SLs are short. In this work, first, we report the determination of the film thickness for short-period SLs using mixing roughness-information (MRI) analysis to SIMS profile. Next, the uncertainty of the conventional method to determine the film thicknesses of SLs is determined. It was found that the conventional methods cannot correctly determine film thickness of short-period-isotope SLs where film thickness differs for every layer

Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

2012-05-01

Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios The WEA Project Team May 2012 SPECIAL REPORT CMU/SEI-2012-SR-020 CERT® Division, Software ...Homeland Security under Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0003 with Carnegie Mellon University for the operation of the Software Engineering Institute, a federally...DISTRIBUTES IT “AS IS.” References herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trade mark, manufacturer, or otherwise

MIZMAS: Modeling the Evolution of Ice Thickness and Floe Size Distributions in the Marginal Ice Zone of the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas

Science.gov (United States)

2015-09-30

ITD theory of Thorndike et al. (1975) in order to explicitly simulate the evolution of FSD and ITD jointly. The FSD theory includes a FSD function and...et al., 2015). 4 RESULTS Modeling: A FSD theory is developed and coupled to the ITD theory of Thorndike et al. (1975) in order to... Thorndike , A.S., D.A. Rothrock, G.A. Maykut, and R. Colony (1975), The thickness distribution of sea ice. J. Geophys. Res., 80, 4501–4513. Zhang

Full reflector thickness and isolation thickness on neutron transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sakai, Tomohiro; Naito, Yoshitaka; Komuro, Yuichi.

1988-08-01

A method to determine ''full reflector thickness'' and ''isolation thickness'', which is utilized for criticality safety evaluation on nuclear fuel facilities, was proposed in this paper. Firstly, a calculation was tryed to obtain the two kinds of thicknesses from the result of criticality calculations for a specific case. Then, two simple equations which calculates the two kinds of thicknesses were made from the relation between reflector (or isolator) thickness and k eff , and one-group diffusion theory. Finally, we proposed a new method to determine the thicknesses. From the method we proposed, ''full reflector thickness'' and ''isolation thickness'' can be obtain using the equations and migration length of the reflector (or isolator) and infinite and effective multiplication factor of the fuel. (author)

Thick domain wall spacetimes with and without reflection symmetry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melfo, Alejandra; Pantoja, Nelson; Skirzewski, Aureliano

2003-01-01

We show that different thick domain wall spacetimes, for which the scalar field configuration and the potential are the same, can be found as solutions to the coupled Einstein-scalar field equations, depending on whether or not reflection symmetry on the wall is imposed. Spacetimes with reflection symmetry may be dynamic or static, while the asymmetric ones are static. Asymmetric walls are asymptotically flat on one side and reduce to the Taub spacetime on the other. Examples of asymmetric thick walls in D-dimensional spacetimes are given, and previous analysis on the distributional thin-wall limit of the dynamic symmetric thick walls are extended to the asymmetric case. A new family of reflection symmetric, static thick domain wall spacetimes, including previously known Bogomol'nyi-Prasad-Sommerfield walls, is presented

Multiobjective optimization for nuclear fleet evolution scenarios using COSI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Freynet David

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The consequences of various fleet evolution options on material inventories and flux in fuel cycle and waste can be analysed by means of transition scenario studies. The COSI code is currently simulating chronologically scenarios whose parameters are fully defined by the user and is coupled with the CESAR depletion code. As the interactions among reactors and fuel cycle facilities can be complex, and the ways in which they may be configured are many, the development of optimization methodology could improve scenario studies. The optimization problem definition needs to list: (i criteria (e.g. saving natural resources and minimizing waste production; (ii variables (scenario parameters related to reprocessing, reactor operation, installed power distribution, etc.; (iii constraints making scenarios industrially feasible. The large number of scenario calculations needed to solve an optimization problem can be time-consuming and hardly achievable; therefore, it requires the shortening of the COSI computation time. Given that CESAR depletion calculations represent about 95% of this computation time, CESAR surrogate models have been developed and coupled with COSI. Different regression models are compared to estimate CESAR outputs: first- and second-order polynomial regressions, Gaussian process and artificial neural network. This paper is about a first optimization study of a transition scenario from the current French nuclear fleet to a Sodium Fast Reactors fleet as defined in the frame of the 2006 French Act for waste management. The present article deals with obtaining the optimal scenarios and validating the methodology implemented, i.e. the coupling between the simulation software COSI, depletion surrogate models and a genetic algorithm optimization method.

The UFE Prospective scenarios for energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

After an overview of the French energy consumption in 2011 (final energy consumption, distribution of CO 2 emissions related to energy consumption), this Power Point presentation proposes graphs and figures illustrating UFE's prospective scenarios for energy demand. The objective is to foresee energy demand in 2050, to study the impact of possible actions on energy demand, and to assess the impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypotheses relate to demographic evolution, economic growth, energy intensity evolution, energy efficiency, and use transfers. Factors of evolution of energy demand are discussed: relationship between demography and energy consumption, new uses of electricity (notably with TICs), relationship between energy intensity and economic growth. Actions on demand are discussed. The results of different scenarios of technical evolution are presented

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinson, P.; Girard, R.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Presentation of the desirable properties of wind power generation scenarios. ► Description of various evaluation frameworks (univariate, multivariate, diagnostic). ► Highlighting of the properties of current approaches to scenario generation. ► Guidelines for future evaluation/benchmark exercises. -- Abstract: Scenarios of short-term wind power generation are becoming increasingly popular as input to multistage decision-making problems e.g. multivariate stochastic optimization and stochastic programming. The quality of these scenarios is intuitively expected to substantially impact the benefits from their use in decision-making. So far however, their verification is almost always focused on their marginal distributions for each individual lead time only, thus overlooking their temporal interdependence structure. The shortcomings of such an approach are discussed. Multivariate verification tools, as well as diagnostic approaches based on event-based verification are then presented. Their application to the evaluation of various sets of scenarios of short-term wind power generation demonstrates them as valuable discrimination tools.

Loess Thickness Variations Across the Loess Plateau of China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Yuanjun; Jia, Xiaoxu; Shao, Mingan

2018-01-01

The soil thickness is very important for investigating and modeling soil-water processes, especially on the Loess Plateau of China with its deep loess deposit and limited water resources. A digital elevation map (DEM) of the Loess Plateau and neighborhood analysis in ArcGIS software were used to generate a map of loess thickness, which was then validated by 162 observations across the plateau. The generated loess thickness map has a high resolution of 100 m × 100 m. The map indicates that loess is thick in the central part of the plateau and becomes gradually shallower in the southeast and northwest directions. The areas near mountains and river basins have the shallowest loess deposit. The mean loess thickness is the deepest in the zones with 400-600-mm precipitation and decreases gradually as precipitation varies beyond this range. Our validation indicates that the map just slightly overestimates loess thickness and is reliable. The loess thickness is mostly between 0 and 350 m in the Loess Plateau region. The calculated mean loess thickness is 105.7 m, with the calibrated value being 92.2 m over the plateau exclusive of the mountain areas. Our findings provide very basic data of loess thickness and demonstrate great progress in mapping the loess thickness distribution for the plateau, which are valuable for a better study of soil-water processes and for more accurate estimations of soil water, carbon, and solute reservoirs in the Loess Plateau of China.

Use of high-frequency ultrasonography for evaluation of skin thickness in relation to hydration status and fluid distribution at various cutaneous sites in dogs.

Science.gov (United States)

Diana, Alessia; Guglielmini, Carlo; Fracassi, Federico; Pietra, Marco; Balletti, Erika; Cipone, Mario

2008-09-01

To assess the usefulness of high-frequency diagnostic ultrasonography for evaluation of changes of skin thickness in relation to hydration status and fluid distribution at various cutaneous sites in dogs. 10 clinically normal adult dogs (6 males and 4 females) of various breeds. Ultrasonographic examination of the skin was performed before and after hydration via IV administration of an isotonic crystalloid solution (30 mL/kg/h for 30 minutes). A 13-MHz linear-array transducer was used to obtain series of ultrasonographic images at 4 different cutaneous sites (the frontal, sacral, flank, and metatarsal regions). Weight and various clinicopathologic variables (PCV; serum osmolality; and serum total protein, albumin, and sodium concentrations) were determined before and after the infusion. These variables and ultrasonographic measurements of skin thickness before and after hydration were compared. Among the 10 dogs, mean preinfusion skin thickness ranged from 2,211 microm (metatarsal region) to 3,249 microm (sacral region). Compared with preinfusion values, weight was significantly increased, whereas PCV; serum osmolality; and serum total protein, albumin, and sodium concentrations were significantly decreased after infusion. After infusion, dermal echogenicity decreased and skin thickness increased significantly by 21%, 14%, 15%, and 13% in the frontal, sacral, flank, and metatarsal regions, respectively. Cutaneous site and hydration were correlated with cutaneous characteristics and skin thickness determined by use of high-frequency ultrasonography in dogs. Thus, diagnostic ultrasonography may be a useful tool for the noninvasive evaluation of skin hydration in healthy dogs and in dogs with skin edema.

Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

Science.gov (United States)

Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

2018-05-01

Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

Comparing different methods to model scenarios of future glacier change for the entire Swiss Alps

Science.gov (United States)

Linsbauer, A.; Paul, F.; Haeberli, W.

2012-04-01

There is general agreement that observed climate change already has strong impacts on the cryosphere. The rapid shrinkage of glaciers during the past two decades as observed in many mountain ranges globally and in particular in the Alps, are impressive confirmations of a changed climate. With the expected future temperature increase glacier shrinkage will likely further accelerate and their role as an important water resource more and more diminish. To determine the future contribution of glaciers to run-off with hydrological models, the change in glacier area and/or volume must be considered. As these models operate at regional scales, simplified approaches to model the future development of all glaciers in a mountain range need to be applied. In this study we have compared different simplified approaches to model the area and volume evolution of all glaciers in the Swiss Alps over the 21st century according to given climate change scenarios. One approach is based on an upward shift of the ELA (by 150 m per degree temperature increase) and the assumption that the glacier extent will shrink until the smaller accumulation area covers again 60% of the total glacier area. A second approach is based on observed elevation changes between 1985 and 2000 as derived from DEM differencing for all glaciers in Switzerland. With a related elevation-dependent parameterization of glacier thickness change and a modelled glacier thickness distribution, the 15-year trends in observed thickness loss are extrapolated into the future with glacier area loss taking place when thickness becomes zero. The models show an overall glacier area reduction between 60-80% until 2100 with some ice remaining at the highest elevations. However, compared to the ongoing temperature increase and considering that several reinforcement feedbacks (albedo lowering, lake formation) are not accounted for, the real area loss might even be stronger. Uncertainties in the modelled glacier thickness have only a

Non-destructive prediction of enteric coating layer thickness and drug dissolution rate by near-infrared spectroscopy and X-ray computed tomography.

Science.gov (United States)

Ariyasu, Aoi; Hattori, Yusuke; Otsuka, Makoto

2017-06-15

The coating layer thickness of enteric-coated tablets is a key factor that determines the drug dissolution rate from the tablet. Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) enables non-destructive and quick measurement of the coating layer thickness, and thus allows the investigation of the relation between enteric coating layer thickness and drug dissolution rate. Two marketed products of aspirin enteric-coated tablets were used in this study, and the correlation between the predicted coating layer thickness and the obtained drug dissolution rate was investigated. Our results showed correlation for one product; the drug dissolution rate decreased with the increase in enteric coating layer thickness, whereas, there was no correlation for the other product. Additional examination of the distribution of coating layer thickness by X-ray computed tomography (CT) showed homogenous distribution of coating layer thickness for the former product, whereas the latter product exhibited heterogeneous distribution within the tablet, as well as inconsistent trend in the thickness distribution between the tablets. It was suggested that this heterogeneity and inconsistent trend in layer thickness distribution contributed to the absence of correlation between the layer thickness of the face and side regions of the tablets, which resulted in the loss of correlation between the coating layer thickness and drug dissolution rate. Therefore, the predictability of drug dissolution rate from enteric-coated tablets depended on the homogeneity of the coating layer thickness. In addition, the importance of micro analysis, X-ray CT in this study, was suggested even if the macro analysis, NIRS in this study, are finally applied for the measurement. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anggreeni, Irene

2010-01-01

The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

Quantification of 2D elemental distribution maps of intermediate-thick biological sections by low energy synchrotron μ-X-ray fluorescence spectrometry

Science.gov (United States)

Kump, P.; Vogel-Mikuš, K.

2018-05-01

Two fundamental-parameter (FP) based models for quantification of 2D elemental distribution maps of intermediate-thick biological samples by synchrotron low energy μ-X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (SR-μ-XRF) are presented and applied to the elemental analysis in experiments with monochromatic focused photon beam excitation at two low energy X-ray fluorescence beamlines—TwinMic, Elettra Sincrotrone Trieste, Italy, and ID21, ESRF, Grenoble, France. The models assume intermediate-thick biological samples composed of measured elements, the sources of the measurable spectral lines, and by the residual matrix, which affects the measured intensities through absorption. In the first model a fixed residual matrix of the sample is assumed, while in the second model the residual matrix is obtained by the iteration refinement of elemental concentrations and an adjusted residual matrix. The absorption of the incident focused beam in the biological sample at each scanned pixel position, determined from the output of a photodiode or a CCD camera, is applied as a control in the iteration procedure of quantification.

Minimality of critical scenarios with linear logic and cutsets

African Journals Online (AJOL)

DK

Keywords: Dependability - Mechatronic systems -Petri net - Linear logic - Minimal Feared scenarios - Cutsets. ..... Energy supply. Detection high level. Relay. ET. Energy supply. Detection high level. Relay ..... Evaluation de la SdF des systèmes mécatroniques en utilisant ... in complex distributed systems, Proceedings of the.

Analysis of Value Chain Governance: Scenarios to Develop Small-Scale Furniture Producers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rika Harini Irawati

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Furniture industry had shown a long chain of production to consumption, from raw material producers (tree growers, semi-finished producers, finished product producers, and retailers to exporters. Jepara as a centre furniture industry in Indonesia incorporates around 15,000 business units and provide livelihoods to approximately 170,000 workers. This sector contributes about 27% of Jepara‘s people domestic income. Small and medium furniture enterprises (SMEs have significant roles in the furniture industry as production structures are characterized by them. Power and information imbalance throughout the furniture value chain have resulted in problems of uneven distribution of gains among actors of the industry. SME furniture producers have experienced an unfair value added distribution. Hence, development of SMEs is important for strengthening the industry and expected to result in a portion of value added distribution to them.  We are trying to develop scenarios for SME improvement in the furniture industry in Jepara by identifying their problems and implementing Value Chain Analysis (VCA. VCA is an approach to describe SME producer relations with other actors in the industry and the governance type of their relations. Data is collected by interviewing selected SMEs from the association of small scale producers in Jepara to get detailed maps of their value chain. The research will produce future scenarios and intervention points to improve small-scale producer sustainability and better value added distribution among furniture actors. The scenarios will not only benefit selected producers but also the furniture industry of Jepara, and can be adopted for similar industries throughout Indonesia and abroad. Keywords: furniture, value chain, governance, scenario, small-scale

Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

2014-01-01

Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

Pengaruh Variasi Lip Thickness pada Nozzle Terpancung terhadap Karakteristik Api Pembakaran Difusi Concentric Jet Flow

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elka Faizal

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Nozzle shape greatly influence turbulence between the fuel, air and formation of flow recirculation zone to produce a homogeneous mixing and get a near-perfect combustion. The recirculation zone is area that caused by flow rate breakdown, causing vortex and backflow around the end of nozzle. This backflow that hold up while lowering the flame so the flow rate of fuel and air mixture maintained lower or equal with flame speed. This study used variation of lip thickness of truncated nozzle 0, 4, 8, 12, and 16 mm.To obtain flame stability, fuel velocity and air velocity were variated. Thermocouples were used to measure flame temperature and its distribution. The results showed that stability of concentric jet diffusion flame flow increased with narrow lip thickness on a truncated nozzle. The wider stability area obtained in 4 mm lip thickness. In addition, temperature on diffusion flames concentric jet flow also more evenly distributed evenly with size of the nozzle lip thickness. The highest temperature and temperature distribution in the horizontal direction were occured in in the nozzle with lip thickness of 0 mm. A shadowgrapgh visualization was also used to identify phenomena of the nozzle exit flow.

SO2 emission scenarios of eastern China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qi, L.; Hao, J.; Lu, M.

1995-01-01

Under the National Key Project in Eighth Five-year Plan, a study was carried out on forecasting SO 2 emission from coal combustion in China, with a special emphasis on the eastern area. 3 scenarios, i.e. 'Optimistic', 'Pessimistic' and 'Business as Usual' scenarios were developed trying to cover changing scale of coal consumption and SO 2 emission from 1990 to 2020. A 'Top-down' approach was employed, and coal consumption elasticity was defined to project future economic growth and coal consumption. SO 2 emission scenarios were outlined, based on coal consumption, estimated sulfur content level and prospective SO 2 control situation. Emission level for each 1 degree longitude x 1 degree latitude grid cell within eastern China was also estimated to show geographical distribution of SO 2 sources. The results show that SO 2 emission in China will increase rapidly, if the current situation for energy saving and SO 2 control is maintained without improvement; measures enhanced reasonably with economic growth could stop further increase of emission by 2010. Realization of more encouraging objective to keep emission at even below 1990 level needs, however, more stringent options. The share of eastern China in the country's total emission would increase until 2000, while the general changing tendency would principally follow the scenarios of the whole country. 4 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

Temperature and extreme rainfalls on France in a climatic change scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deque, M.

2007-01-01

Impact of an anthropogenic climate change scenario on the frequency distribution of temperature and precipitation over France is studied with a numerical simulation calibrated with observed daily data from the synoptic network. (author)

Possible change in distribution of seaweed, Sargassum horneri, in northeast Asia under A2 scenario of global warming and consequent effect on some fish.

Science.gov (United States)

Komatsu, Teruhisa; Fukuda, Masahiro; Mikami, Atsuko; Mizuno, Shizuha; Kantachumpoo, Attachai; Tanoue, Hideaki; Kawamiya, Michio

2014-08-30

Global warming effects on seaweed beds are already perceptible. Their geographical distributions greatly depend on water temperatures. To predict future geographical distributions of brown alga, Sargassum horneri, forming large beds in the northwestern Pacific, we referred to future monthly surface water temperatures at about 1.1° of longitude and 0.6° of latitude in February and August in 2050 and 2100 simulated by 12 organizations under an A2 scenario of global warming. The southern limit of S. horneri distribution is expected to keep moving northward such that it may broadly disappear from Honshu Island, the Chinese coast, and Korean Peninsula in 2100, when tropical Sargassum species such as Sargassum tenuifolium may not completely replace S. horneri. Thus, their forests in 2100 do not substitute those of S. horneri in 2000. Fishes using the beds and seaweed rafts consisting of S. horneri in East China Sea suffer these disappearances. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre; Girard, R.

2012-01-01

Scenarios of short-term wind power generation are becoming increasingly popular as input to multi-stage decision-making problems e.g. multivariate stochastic optimization and stochastic programming. The quality of these scenarios is intuitively expected to substantially impact the benets from...... their use in decision-making. So far however, their verication is almost always focused on their marginal distributions for each individual lead time only, thus overlooking their temporal interdependence structure. The shortcomings of such an approach are discussed. Multivariate verication tools, as well...... as diagnostic approaches based on event-based verication are then presented. Their application to the evaluation of various sets of scenarios of short-term wind power generation demonstrates them as valuable discrimination tools....

The world in scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

1992-01-01

As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

Measurement of subcutaneous adipose tissue thickness by near-infrared

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Yu; Ying, Zeqiang; Hao, Dongmei; Zhang, Song; Yang, Yimin; Zeng, Yanjun

2013-01-01

Obesity is strongly associated with the risks of diabetes and cardiovascular disease, and there is a need to measure the subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) layer thickness and to understand the distribution of body fat. A device was designed to illuminate the body parts by near-infrared (NIR), measure the backscattered light, and predict the SAT layer thickness. The device was controlled by a single-chip microcontroller (SCM), and the thickness value was presented on a liquid crystal display (LCD). There were 30 subjects in this study, and the measurements were performed on 14 body parts for each subject. The paper investigated the impacts of pressure and skin colour on the measurement. Combining with principal component analysis (PCA) and support vector regression (SVR), the measurement accuracy of SAT layer thickness was 89.1 % with a mechanical caliper as reference. The measuring range was 5–11 mm. The study provides a non-invasive and low-cost technique to detect subcutaneous fat thickness, which is more accessible and affordable compared to other conventional techniques. The designed device can be used at home and in community.

Effect of Seepage on Change in Stress Distribution Scenario in Static and Seismic Behaviour of Earthen Dams

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nandi N.

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The present study makes an effort to understand the damage of earthen dams under static and seismic loading condition. To make the investigation more realistic, behaviour of earthen dams considering the occurrence of a phreatic line indicating the submerged zone due to seepage within the dam body is considered. In case of earthen dams, homogeneous or nonhomogeneous, the consideration of the occurrence of a phreatic line or seepage line through the dam body is an important part of the earthen dam design methodology. The impervious material properties in the submerged zone below the phreatic line due to seepage may differ a lot in magnitudes as compared to the value of the same materials lying above this line. Hence, to have the exact stress distribution scenarios within the earthen dam, the different material properties above and below the phreatic line are considered in this present study. The study is first carried out by two-dimensional as well as three-dimensional finite element analysis under static loading condition. The work is further extended to observe the effect of seepage due to the consideration of the phreatic line on dynamic characteristics of earthen dams. Free vibration analysis and seismic analysis based on the Complete Quadratic Combination (CQC method by considering twodimensional and three-dimensional modeling are carried out to present the frequencies, mode shapes and the stress distribution pattern of the earthen dam.

Food scenarios 2025

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sundbo, Jon

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

Interpreting energy scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

Associations between cortical thickness and general intelligence in children, adolescents and young adults

Science.gov (United States)

Menary, Kyle; Collins, Paul F.; Porter, James N.; Muetzel, Ryan; Olson, Elizabeth A.; Kumar, Vipin; Steinbach, Michael; Lim, Kelvin O.; Luciana, Monica

2013-01-01

Neuroimaging research indicates that human intellectual ability is related to brain structure including the thickness of the cerebral cortex. Most studies indicate that general intelligence is positively associated with cortical thickness in areas of association cortex distributed throughout both brain hemispheres. In this study, we performed a cortical thickness mapping analysis on data from 182 healthy typically developing males and females ages 9 to 24 years to identify correlates of general intelligence (g) scores. To determine if these correlates also mediate associations of specific cognitive abilities with cortical thickness, we regressed specific cognitive test scores on g scores and analyzed the residuals with respect to cortical thickness. The effect of age on the association between cortical thickness and intelligence was examined. We found a widely distributed pattern of positive associations between cortical thickness and g scores, as derived from the first unrotated principal factor of a factor analysis of Wechsler Abbreviated Scale of Intelligence (WASI) subtest scores. After WASI specific cognitive subtest scores were regressed on g factor scores, the residual score variances did not correlate significantly with cortical thickness in the full sample with age covaried. When participants were grouped at the age median, significant positive associations of cortical thickness were obtained in the older group for g-residualized scores on Block Design (a measure of visual-motor integrative processing) while significant negative associations of cortical thickness were observed in the younger group for g-residualized Vocabulary scores. These results regarding correlates of general intelligence are concordant with the existing literature, while the findings from younger versus older subgroups have implications for future research on brain structural correlates of specific cognitive abilities, as well as the cognitive domain specificity of behavioral

Probabilistic Harmonic Analysis on Distributed Photovoltaic Integration Considering Typical Weather Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Bin, Che; Ruoying, Yu; Dongsheng, Dang; Xiangyan, Wang

2017-05-01

Distributed Generation (DG) integrating to the network would cause the harmonic pollution which would cause damages on electrical devices and affect the normal operation of power system. On the other hand, due to the randomness of the wind and solar irradiation, the output of DG is random, too, which leads to an uncertainty of the harmonic generated by the DG. Thus, probabilistic methods are needed to analyse the impacts of the DG integration. In this work we studied the harmonic voltage probabilistic distribution and the harmonic distortion in distributed network after the distributed photovoltaic (DPV) system integrating in different weather conditions, mainly the sunny day, cloudy day, rainy day and the snowy day. The probabilistic distribution function of the DPV output power in different typical weather conditions could be acquired via the parameter identification method of maximum likelihood estimation. The Monte-Carlo simulation method was adopted to calculate the probabilistic distribution of harmonic voltage content at different frequency orders as well as the harmonic distortion (THD) in typical weather conditions. The case study was based on the IEEE33 system and the results of harmonic voltage content probabilistic distribution as well as THD in typical weather conditions were compared.

2020s scenario analysis of nutrient load in the Mekong River Basin using a distributed hydrological model.

Science.gov (United States)

Yoshimura, Chihiro; Zhou, Maichun; Kiem, Anthony S; Fukami, Kazuhiko; Prasantha, Hapuarachchi H A; Ishidaira, Hiroshi; Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi

2009-10-01

A distributed hydrological model, YHyM, was integrated with the export coefficient concept and applied to simulate the nutrient load in the Mekong River Basin. In the validation period (1992-1999), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency was 76.4% for discharge, 65.9% for total nitrogen, and 45.3% for total phosphorus at Khong Chiam. Using the model, scenario analysis was then performed for the 2020s taking into account major anthropogenic factors: climate change, population, land cover, fertilizer use, and industrial waste water. The results show that the load at Kompong Cham in 2020s is 6.3 x 10(4)tN a(-1) (+13.0% compared to 1990s) and 4.3 x 10(3)tP a(-1) (+24.7%). Overall, the noticeable nutrient sources are cropland in the middle region and urban load in the lower region. The installation of waste water treatment plants in urban areas possibly cut 60.6%N and 19.9%P of the estimated increase in the case without any treatment.

Distribution and landscape controls of organic layer thickness and carbon within the Alaskan Yukon River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Pastick, Neal J.; Rigge, Matthew B.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Jorgenson, M. Torre; Rose, Joshua R.; Johnson, Kristofer D.; Ji, Lei

2014-01-01

Understanding of the organic layer thickness (OLT) and organic layer carbon (OLC) stocks in subarctic ecosystems is critical due to their importance in the global carbon cycle. Moreover, post-fire OLT provides an indicator of long-term successional trajectories and permafrost susceptibility to thaw. To these ends, we 1) mapped OLT and associated uncertainty at 30 m resolution in the Yukon River Basin (YRB), Alaska, employing decision tree models linking remotely sensed imagery with field and ancillary data, 2) converted OLT to OLC using a non-linear regression, 3) evaluate landscape controls on OLT and OLC, and 4) quantified the post-fire recovery of OLT and OLC. Areas of shallow (2 = 0.68; OLC: R2 = 0.66), where an average of 16 cm OLT and 5.3 kg/m2 OLC were consumed by fires. Strong predictors of OLT included climate, topography, near-surface permafrost distributions, soil wetness, and spectral information. Our modeling approach enabled us to produce regional maps of OLT and OLC, which will be useful in understanding risks and feedbacks associated with fires and climate feedbacks.

Top layer's thickness dependence on total electron-yield X-ray standing-wave

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ejima, Takeo; Yamazaki, Atsushi; Banse, Takanori; Hatano, Tadashi

2005-01-01

A Mo single-layer film with a stepwise thickness distribution was fabricated on the same Mo/Si reflection multilayer film. Total electron-yield X-ray standing-wave (TEY-XSW) spectra of the aperiodic multilayer were measured with reflection spectra. The peak positions of the standing waves in the TEY-XSW spectra changed as the film thickness of the top Mo-layer increased

3-D mapping with ellipsometrically determined physical thickness ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Unknown

values at different points (121 nos.) with 1 mm gap between two points. Those data were utilized in the Auto- lisp programme for 3-D mapping. Radial distribution of the evaluated values was also displayed. Keywords. Sol–gel silica layer; ellipsometric studies; refractive index; physical thickness; 3D-mapping. 1. Introduction.

Influence of the shell thickness and charge distribution on the effective interaction between two like-charged hollow spheres.

Science.gov (United States)

Angelescu, Daniel G; Caragheorgheopol, Dan

2015-10-14

The mean-force and the potential of the mean force between two like-charged spherical shells were investigated in the salt-free limit using the primitive model and Monte Carlo simulations. Apart from an angular homogeneous distribution, a discrete charge distribution where point charges localized on the shell outer surface followed an icosahedral arrangement was considered. The electrostatic coupling of the model system was altered by the presence of mono-, trivalent counterions or small dendrimers, each one bearing a net charge of 9 e. We analyzed in detail how the shell thickness and the radial and angular distribution of the shell charges influenced the effective interaction between the shells. We found a sequence of the potential of the mean force similar to the like-charged filled spheres, ranging from long-range purely repulsive to short-range purely attractive as the electrostatic coupling increased. Both types of potentials were attenuated and an attractive-to-repulsive transition occurred in the presence of trivalent counterions as a result of (i) thinning the shell or (ii) shifting the shell charge from the outer towards the inner surface. The potential of the mean force became more attractive with the icosahedrally symmetric charge model, and additionally, at least one shell tended to line up with 5-fold symmetry axis along the longest axis of the simulation box at the maximum attraction. The results provided a basic framework of understanding the non-specific electrostatic origin of the agglomeration and long-range assembly of the viral nanoparticles.

Effects of the inversion layer thickness and 10B distribution in it on the characteristics of ion-doped semiconductor neutron counters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diasamidze, Eh.M.; Solov'ev, Yu.A.; Shmakov, A.N.

1984-01-01

The technique for calculating the dependence of energy spectrum of the 10 B(n, α) 7 Li reaction products in the thickness of the inversion layer in a semiconductor counter fabricated using the diffusion method is proposed. The inversion layer is formed as a result of the 10 B ion implantation into n-type silicon. The cases of uniform and Gaussian distributions of 10 B impurity are considered. Corrections for neutron fluence calculation by α-peak, taking into account α-particle absorption in the inversion layer are obtained. It is concluded that the suggested calculational technique can be used for semiconductor counters fabricated by the diffusion method

Numerical simulation of springback of medium-thick plates in local hot rolling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

XIE Dong

2017-10-01

Full Text Available [Objectives] In order to understand the factors of springback in the local hot rolling of medium-thick steel plates,[Methods] a 3D thermal-elastic-plastic analysis is conducted to investigate the factors affecting the amount of springback. Through a series of numerical analyses,the influence of deformation temperature,temperature field distribution,plate size and local loading are examined. [Results] The results show that when the deformation temperature exceeds a certain level at which material yield stress begins to decrease significantly,the springback will reduce markedly with the increase in temperature. Due to the distribution characteristics of the deformation area,the influence of temperature distribution on springback where the local deformation scale is larger is dominated by the three dimensions of temperature field distribution. Changes in the length and width of the plate have a certain influence on the springback,in which changes to the length of a plate where the local deformation scale is larger have a more obvious influence on springback. The springback of the plate decreases with the increase of local loading. [Conclusions] The results of this study can assist in the optimization of parameters in the automatic hot rolling of thick plates,while also having a basic guiding effect on the further study of springback in the local hot rolling of thick plates.

Multi-hazard Assessment and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST): A Framework for Analyzing Compounding Effects of Multiple Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Sadegh, M.; Moftakhari, H.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Many natural hazards are driven by multiple forcing variables, and concurrence/consecutive extreme events significantly increases risk of infrastructure/system failure. It is a common practice to use univariate analysis based upon a perceived ruling driver to estimate design quantiles and/or return periods of extreme events. A multivariate analysis, however, permits modeling simultaneous occurrence of multiple forcing variables. In this presentation, we introduce the Multi-hazard Assessment and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST) that comprehensively analyzes marginal and joint probability distributions of natural hazards. MhAST also offers a wide range of scenarios of return period and design levels and their likelihoods. Contribution of this study is four-fold: 1. comprehensive analysis of marginal and joint probability of multiple drivers through 17 continuous distributions and 26 copulas, 2. multiple scenario analysis of concurrent extremes based upon the most likely joint occurrence, one ruling variable, and weighted random sampling of joint occurrences with similar exceedance probabilities, 3. weighted average scenario analysis based on a expected event, and 4. uncertainty analysis of the most likely joint occurrence scenario using a Bayesian framework.

Size dependence of non-magnetic thickness in YIG nanoparticles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Niyaifar, M., E-mail: md.niyaifar@gmail.com; Mohammadpour, H.; Dorafshani, M.; Hasanpour, A.

2016-07-01

This study is focused on particle size dependence of structural and magnetic properties in yttrium iron garnet (Y{sub 3}Fe{sub 5}O{sub 12}) nanoparticles. A series of YIG samples with different particle size were produced by varying the annealing temperatures. The X-ray analysis revealed an inverse correlation between lattice parameter and the crystallite size. The normal distribution is used for fitting the particles size distribution which is extracted from scanning electron micrographs. Also, by using the results of vibrating sample magnetometer, the magnetic diameter was calculated based on Langevin model in order to investigate the variation of dead layer thickness. Furthermore, the observed line broadening in Mössbauer spectra confirmed the increase of non-magnetic thickness due to the reduction of particle size. - Highlights: • Pure phase Y{sub 3}Fe{sub 5}O{sub 12} nanoparticles are fabricated in different particle size by a thermal treatment. • The size effect on magnetic properties is studied with a core/shell (magnetic/nonmagnetic) model. • The logarithmic variation of (dead layer thickness)/(particle size) ratio with the particle size is investigated. • The results of Mossbauer are explained based on the correlation between lattice constant and particle size variation.

Neutron yield from thick lead target by the action of high-energy electrons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noga, V.I.; Ranyuk, Yu.N.; Telegin, Yu.N.; Sorokin, P.V.

1978-01-01

The results are presented of studying the complete neutron yield from a lead target bombarded by high-energy electrons. Neutrons were recorded by the method of radio-active indicators. The dependence of the neutron yield on the target thickness varying from 0.2 to 8 cm was obtained at the energies of electrons of 230 and 1200 MeV. The neutron yield for the given energies with the target of 6 cm in thickness is in the range of saturation and is 0.1 +-0.03 and 0.65+-0.22 (neutr./MeV.el.), respectively. The neutron angular distributions were measured for different thicknesses of targets at the 201, 230 and 1200 MeV electrons. Within the error limits the angular distributions are isotropic. The dependence of neutron yield on the electron energy was examined for a 3 cm thick target. In the energy range of 100-1200 MeV these values are related by a linear dependence with the proportionality coefficient C=3x10 -4 (neutr./MeV.el.)

Scoping Future Policy Dynamics in Raw Materials Through Scenarios Testing

Science.gov (United States)

Correia, Vitor; Keane, Christopher; Sturm, Flavius; Schimpf, Sven; Bodo, Balazs

2017-04-01

The International Raw Materials Observatory (INTRAW) project is working towards a sustainable future for the European Union in access to raw materials, from an availability, economical, and environmental framework. One of the major exercises for the INTRAW project is the evaluation of potential future scenarios for 2050 to frame economic, research, and environmental policy towards a sustainable raw materials supply. The INTRAW consortium developed three possible future scenarios that encompass defined regimes of political, economic, and technological norms. The first scenario, "Unlimited Trade," reflects a world in which free trade continues to dominate the global political and economic environment, with expectations of a growing demand for raw materials from widely distributed global growth. The "National Walls" scenario reflects a world where nationalism and economic protectionism begins to dominate, leading to stagnating economic growth and uneven dynamics in raw materials supply and demand. The final scenario, "Sustainability Alliance," examines the dynamics of a global political and economic climate that is focused on environmental and economic sustainability, leading towards increasingly towards a circular raw materials economy. These scenarios were reviewed, tested, and provided simulations of impacts with members of the Consortium and a panel of global experts on international raw materials issues which led to expected end conditions for 2050. Given the current uncertainty in global politics, these scenarios are informative to identifying likely opportunities and crises. The details of these simulations and expected responses to the research demand, technology investments, and economic components of raw materials system will be discussed.

Integrative Scenario Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joerg A. Priess

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

1992-01-01

The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pitcher, Hugh M

2009-01-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

GPS and Electronic Fence Data Fusion for Positioning within Railway Worksite Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Figueiras, Joao; Grønbæk, Lars Jesper; Ceccarelli, Andrea

2012-01-01

Context-dependent decisions in safety-critical applications require careful consideration of accuracy and timeliness of the underlying context information. Relevant examples include location-dependent actions in mobile distributed systems. This paper considers localization functions for personali......Context-dependent decisions in safety-critical applications require careful consideration of accuracy and timeliness of the underlying context information. Relevant examples include location-dependent actions in mobile distributed systems. This paper considers localization functions...... with information from the electronic fences is developed and analyzed. Different accuracy metrics are proposed and the benefit obtained from the fusion with electronic fences is quantitatively analyzed in the scenarios of a single mobile entity: By having fence information, the correct zone estimation can increase...... by 30%, while false alarms can be reduced one order of magnitude in the tested scenario....

Theoretical models to predict the mechanical behavior of thick composite tubes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Volnei Tita

2012-02-01

Full Text Available This paper shows theoretical models (analytical formulations to predict the mechanical behavior of thick composite tubes and how some parameters can influence this behavior. Thus, firstly, it was developed the analytical formulations for a pressurized tube made of composite material with a single thick ply and only one lamination angle. For this case, the stress distribution and the displacement fields are investigated as function of different lamination angles and reinforcement volume fractions. The results obtained by the theoretical model are physic consistent and coherent with the literature information. After that, the previous formulations are extended in order to predict the mechanical behavior of a thick laminated tube. Both analytical formulations are implemented as a computational tool via Matlab code. The results obtained by the computational tool are compared to the finite element analyses, and the stress distribution is considered coherent. Moreover, the engineering computational tool is used to perform failure analysis, using different types of failure criteria, which identifies the damaged ply and the mode of failure.

Ecological and Geographical Analysis of the Distribution of the Mountain Tapir (Tapirus pinchaque) in Ecuador: Importance of Protected Areas in Future Scenarios of Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Ortega-Andrade, H. Mauricio; Prieto-Torres, David A.; Gómez-Lora, Ignacio; Lizcano, Diego J.

2015-01-01

In Ecuador, Tapirus pinchaque is considered to be critically endangered. Although the species has been registered in several localities, its geographic distribution remains unclear, and the effects of climate change and current land uses on this species are largely unknown. We modeled the ecological niche of T. pinchaque using MaxEnt, in order to assess its potential adaptation to present and future climate change scenarios. We evaluated the effects of habitat loss due by current land use, the ecosystem availability and importance of Ecuadorian System of Protected Areas into the models. The model of environmental suitability estimated an extent of occurrence for species of 21,729 km2 in all of Ecuador, mainly occurring along the corridor of the eastern Ecuadorian Andes. A total of 10 Andean ecosystems encompassed ~98% of the area defined by the model, with herbaceous paramo, northeastern Andean montane evergreen forest and northeastern Andes upper montane evergreen forest being the most representative. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction in model area (~17%) occurred, and the effect of climate change represented a net reduction up to 37.86%. However, the synergistic effect of both climate change and habitat loss, given current land use practices, could represent a greater risk in the short-term, leading to a net reduction of 19.90 to 44.65% in T. pinchaque’s potential distribution. Even under such a scenarios, several Protected Areas harbor a portion (~36 to 48%) of the potential distribution defined by the models. However, the central and southern populations are highly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. Based on these results and due to the restricted home range of T. pinchaque, its preference for upland forests and paramos, and its small estimated population size in the Andes, we suggest to maintaining its current status as Critically Endangered in Ecuador. PMID:25798851

Ecological and geographical analysis of the distribution of the mountain tapir (Tapirus pinchaque in Ecuador: importance of protected areas in future scenarios of global warming.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H Mauricio Ortega-Andrade

Full Text Available In Ecuador, Tapirus pinchaque is considered to be critically endangered. Although the species has been registered in several localities, its geographic distribution remains unclear, and the effects of climate change and current land uses on this species are largely unknown. We modeled the ecological niche of T. pinchaque using MaxEnt, in order to assess its potential adaptation to present and future climate change scenarios. We evaluated the effects of habitat loss due by current land use, the ecosystem availability and importance of Ecuadorian System of Protected Areas into the models. The model of environmental suitability estimated an extent of occurrence for species of 21,729 km2 in all of Ecuador, mainly occurring along the corridor of the eastern Ecuadorian Andes. A total of 10 Andean ecosystems encompassed ~98% of the area defined by the model, with herbaceous paramo, northeastern Andean montane evergreen forest and northeastern Andes upper montane evergreen forest being the most representative. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction in model area (~17% occurred, and the effect of climate change represented a net reduction up to 37.86%. However, the synergistic effect of both climate change and habitat loss, given current land use practices, could represent a greater risk in the short-term, leading to a net reduction of 19.90 to 44.65% in T. pinchaque's potential distribution. Even under such a scenarios, several Protected Areas harbor a portion (~36 to 48% of the potential distribution defined by the models. However, the central and southern populations are highly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. Based on these results and due to the restricted home range of T. pinchaque, its preference for upland forests and paramos, and its small estimated population size in the Andes, we suggest to maintaining its current status as Critically Endangered in Ecuador.

Ecological and geographical analysis of the distribution of the mountain tapir (Tapirus pinchaque) in Ecuador: importance of protected areas in future scenarios of global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Ortega-Andrade, H Mauricio; Prieto-Torres, David A; Gómez-Lora, Ignacio; Lizcano, Diego J

2015-01-01

In Ecuador, Tapirus pinchaque is considered to be critically endangered. Although the species has been registered in several localities, its geographic distribution remains unclear, and the effects of climate change and current land uses on this species are largely unknown. We modeled the ecological niche of T. pinchaque using MaxEnt, in order to assess its potential adaptation to present and future climate change scenarios. We evaluated the effects of habitat loss due by current land use, the ecosystem availability and importance of Ecuadorian System of Protected Areas into the models. The model of environmental suitability estimated an extent of occurrence for species of 21,729 km2 in all of Ecuador, mainly occurring along the corridor of the eastern Ecuadorian Andes. A total of 10 Andean ecosystems encompassed ~98% of the area defined by the model, with herbaceous paramo, northeastern Andean montane evergreen forest and northeastern Andes upper montane evergreen forest being the most representative. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction in model area (~17%) occurred, and the effect of climate change represented a net reduction up to 37.86%. However, the synergistic effect of both climate change and habitat loss, given current land use practices, could represent a greater risk in the short-term, leading to a net reduction of 19.90 to 44.65% in T. pinchaque's potential distribution. Even under such a scenarios, several Protected Areas harbor a portion (~36 to 48%) of the potential distribution defined by the models. However, the central and southern populations are highly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. Based on these results and due to the restricted home range of T. pinchaque, its preference for upland forests and paramos, and its small estimated population size in the Andes, we suggest to maintaining its current status as Critically Endangered in Ecuador.

Microstructural and Mechanical Study of Press Hardening of Thick Boron Steel Sheet

Science.gov (United States)

Pujante, J.; Garcia-Llamas, E.; Golling, S.; Casellas, D.

2017-09-01

Press hardening has become a staple in the production of automotive safety components, due to the combination of high mechanical properties and form complexity it offers. However, the use of press hardened components has not spread to the truck industry despite the advantages it confers, namely affordable weight reduction without the use of exotic materials, would be extremely attractive for this sector. The main reason for this is that application of press hardened components in trucks implies adapting the process to the manufacture of thick sheet metal. This introduces an additional layer of complexity, mainly due to the thermal gradients inside the material resulting in though-thickness differences in austenitization and cooling, potentially resulting in complex microstructure and gradient of mechanical properties. This work presents a preliminary study on the press hardening of thick boron steel sheet. First of all, the evolution of the sheet metal during austenitization is studied by means of dilatometry tests and by analysing the effect of furnace dwell time on grain size. Afterwards, material cooled using different cooling strategies, and therefore different effective cooling rates, is studied in terms of microstructure and mechanical properties. Initial results from finite element simulation are compared to experimental results, focusing on the phase composition in through thickness direction. Results show that industrial-equivalent cooling conditions do not lead to gradient microstructures, even in extreme scenarios involving asymmetrical cooling.

Impact of prescribed Arctic sea ice thickness in simulations of the present and future climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krinner, Gerhard [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam (Germany); INSU-CNRS and UJF Grenoble, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement (LGGE), 54 rue Moliere, BP 96, Saint Martin d' Heres Cedex (France); Rinke, Annette; Dethloff, Klaus [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam (Germany); Gorodetskaya, Irina V. [INSU-CNRS and UJF Grenoble, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement (LGGE), 54 rue Moliere, BP 96, Saint Martin d' Heres Cedex (France)

2010-09-15

This paper describes atmospheric general circulation model climate change experiments in which the Arctic sea-ice thickness is either fixed to 3 m or somewhat more realistically parameterized in order to take into account essentially the spatial variability of Arctic sea-ice thickness, which is, to a first approximation, a function of ice type (perennial or seasonal). It is shown that, both at present and at the end of the twenty-first century (under the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas scenario), the impact of a variable sea-ice thickness compared to a uniform value is essentially limited to the cold seasons and the lower troposphere. However, because first-year ice is scarce in the Central Arctic today, but not under SRES-A1B conditions at the end of the twenty-first century, and because the impact of a sea-ice thickness reduction can be masked by changes of the open water fraction, the spatial and temporal patterns of the effect of sea-ice thinning on the atmosphere differ between the two periods considered. As a consequence, not only the climate simulated at a given period, but also the simulated Arctic climate change over the twenty-first century is affected by the way sea-ice thickness is prescribed. (orig.)

Lead Thickness Measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rucinski, R.

1998-01-01

The preshower lead thickness applied to the outside of D-Zero's superconducting solenoid vacuum shell was measured at the time of application. This engineering documents those thickness measurements. The lead was ordered in sheets 0.09375-inch and 0.0625-inch thick. The tolerance on thickness was specified to be +/- 0.003-inch. The sheets all were within that thickness tolerance. The nomenclature for each sheet was designated 1T, 1B, 2T, 2B where the numeral designates it's location in the wrap and 'T' or 'B' is short for 'top' or 'bottom' half of the solenoid. Micrometer measurements were taken at six locations around the perimeter of each sheet. The width,length, and weight of each piece was then measured. Using an assumed pure lead density of 0.40974 lb/in 3 , an average sheet thickness was calculated and compared to the perimeter thickness measurements. In every case, the calculated average thickness was a few mils thinner than the perimeter measurements. The ratio was constant, 0.98. This discrepancy is likely due to the assumed pure lead density. It is not felt that the perimeter is thicker than the center regions. The data suggests that the physical thickness of the sheets is uniform to +/- 0.0015-inch.

Improving friction stir welding of blanks of different thicknesses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fratini, L. [Dipartimento di Tecnologia Meccanica, Produzione e Ingegneria Gestionale, Universita di Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, 90128 Palermo (Italy)], E-mail: abaqus@dtpm.unipa.it; Buffa, G. [Dipartimento di Tecnologia Meccanica, Produzione e Ingegneria Gestionale, Universita di Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, 90128 Palermo (Italy); Shivpuri, R. [Ohio State University, Department of Industrial, Welding and Systems Engineering, 1971 Neil Avenue, 210 Baker Systems, Columbus, Ohio 43210 (United States)

2007-06-25

Friction stir welding (FSW) appears to be a promising process even in the welding of blanks of different thicknesses. Actually, such particular tailor welded blanks (TWBs) are usually characterized by a reduction in ductility due to the utilized fusion welding process. In this paper the authors, starting from a preliminary feasibility study, investigate the possibility to improve the mechanical performances of friction stir welded blanks of aluminum alloy with different thicknesses. Both experiments and a FE analyses are developed for a few case studies with different thickness ratios between the blanks. The numerical investigations are performed with the aim to highlight the material temperature distribution during the process in order to determine process conditions for which an almost symmetric thermal flow is obtained in the two blanks of the joint. In this way, a few simple process design rules are derived and verified through experiments. In particular a thickness ratio up to 2 was considered and a joint resistance of about the 80% of the parent material ultimate tensile strength was observed.

Improving friction stir welding of blanks of different thicknesses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fratini, L.; Buffa, G.; Shivpuri, R.

2007-01-01

Friction stir welding (FSW) appears to be a promising process even in the welding of blanks of different thicknesses. Actually, such particular tailor welded blanks (TWBs) are usually characterized by a reduction in ductility due to the utilized fusion welding process. In this paper the authors, starting from a preliminary feasibility study, investigate the possibility to improve the mechanical performances of friction stir welded blanks of aluminum alloy with different thicknesses. Both experiments and a FE analyses are developed for a few case studies with different thickness ratios between the blanks. The numerical investigations are performed with the aim to highlight the material temperature distribution during the process in order to determine process conditions for which an almost symmetric thermal flow is obtained in the two blanks of the joint. In this way, a few simple process design rules are derived and verified through experiments. In particular a thickness ratio up to 2 was considered and a joint resistance of about the 80% of the parent material ultimate tensile strength was observed

Effect of nonlinear crystal thickness on the parameters of the autocorrelator of femtosecond light pulses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masalov, Anatolii V; Chudnovsky, Aleksandr V

2004-01-01

It is shown that the finite thickness of the second-harmonic crystal distorts the results of measurements in nonlinear autocorrelators intended for measuring the durations and fields of femtosecond light pulses mainly due to dispersive broadening (or compression) of the pulses being measured, as well as due to the group velocity mismatch between the fundamental and sum-frequency pulses. The refractive index dispersion of the crystal, scaled by half its thickness, distorts the pulse duration to a certain extent depending on its initial chirp and thus determines the width of the energy distribution recorded in the autocorrelator. As the crystal thickness increases, the group velocity mismatch leads to a transformation of the recorded distribution from the correlation function of intensity to the squared modulus of the field correlation function. In the case of Gaussian pulses, such a transformation does not affect significantly the recorded distribution. Errors of pulse duration measurements are estimated. (nonlinear optical phenomena)

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

Science.gov (United States)

Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

2011-01-01

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

Properties of PETP track membranes of different thickness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Apel, P.Yu.; Didyk, A.Yu.; Larionova, I.E.; Mamonova, T.I.; Orelovich, O.L.; Samoilova, L.I.; Yanina, I.V.; Zhitariuk, N.I.

1994-01-01

The basic properties of polyethylene terephthalate (PETP) track membranes (TM) made of the films with the thickness of 10 and 20 μm are investigated. The membranes with the pore diameters of 0.2, 0.4 and 1 μm were chosen for comparative study. The porous structure of the membranes was characterized by the following set of parameters: pore density, pore size, bubble point, pore radius distribution measured by the Coulter porometer. The tensile strength, water and gas flow rate were determined for both types of the TMs. The filtration processes of liquid and gaseous media were investigated. Advantages and disadvantages of 'thin' and 'thick' TM are discussed. (author). 4 refs, 5 figs, 3 tabs

Nearshore sediment thickness, Fire Island, New York

Science.gov (United States)

Locker, Stanley D.; Miselis, Jennifer L.; Buster, Noreen A.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Wadman, Heidi M.; McNinch, Jesse E.; Forde, Arnell S.; Stalk, Chelsea A.

2017-04-03

Investigations of coastal change at Fire Island, New York (N.Y.), sought to characterize sediment budgets and determine geologic framework controls on coastal processes. Nearshore sediment thickness is critical for assessing coastal system sediment availability, but it is largely unquantified due to the difficulty of conducting geological or geophysical surveys across the nearshore. This study used an amphibious vessel to acquire chirp subbottom profiles. These profiles were used to characterize nearshore geology and provide an assessment of nearshore sediment volume. Two resulting sediment-thickness maps are provided: total Holocene sediment thickness and the thickness of the active shoreface. The Holocene sediment section represents deposition above the maximum flooding surface that is related to the most recent marine transgression. The active shoreface section is the uppermost Holocene sediment, which is interpreted to represent the portion of the shoreface thought to contribute to present and future coastal behavior. The sediment distribution patterns correspond to previously defined zones of erosion, accretion, and stability along the island, demonstrating the importance of sediment availability in the coastal response to storms and seasonal variability. The eastern zone has a thin nearshore sediment thickness, except for an ebb-tidal deposit at the wilderness breach caused by Hurricane Sandy. Thicker sediment is found along a central zone that includes shoreface-attached sand ridges, which is consistent with a stable or accretional coastline in this area. The thickest overall Holocene section is found in the western zone of the study, where a thicker lower section of Holocene sediment appears related to the westward migration of Fire Island Inlet over several hundred years.

Data Envelopment Analysis of different climate policy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bosetti, Valentina; Buchner, Barbara

2009-01-01

Recent developments in the political, scientific and economic debate on climate change suggest that it is of critical importance to develop new approaches able to compare policy scenarios for their environmental effectiveness, their distributive effects, their enforceability, their costs and many other dimensions. This paper discusses a quantitative methodology to assess the relative performance of different climate policy scenarios when accounting for their long-term economic, social and environmental impacts. The proposed procedure is based on Data Envelopment Analysis, here employed in evaluating the relative efficiency of eleven global climate policy scenarios. The methodology provides a promising comparison framework; it can be seen as a way of setting some basic guidelines to frame further debates and negotiations and can be flexibly adopted and modified by decision makers to obtain relevant information for policy design. Three major findings emerge from this analysis: (1) stringent climate policies can outperform less ambitious proposals if all sustainability dimensions are taken into account; (2) a carefully chosen burden-sharing rule is able to bring together climate stabilisation and equity considerations; and (3) the most inefficient strategy results from the failure to negotiate a post-2012 global climate agreement. (author)

Design and fabrication of optical thin film layers with variable thickness profile for producing variable reflectivity mirrors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hamid R fallah

2006-12-01

Full Text Available   The design method and fabrication of mirrors with variable reflectivity are presented. To fabricate such a mirror a fixed mask with a circular aperture is used. The circular aperture is considered as an extended source with cosx(θas its diffusion distribution function and is the parameter for the distribution function of the particles through the aperture. The thickness profile of deposited layer is a function of this distribution. In this work, the coating system is calibrated for the materials which are used and then the parameter of the diffusion distribution function of the particles through the circular aperture is defined by experiments. Using these results, a graph is presented which connects the parameter of the circular aperture to the parameters of the thickness profile. It is then possible to deposit any type of variable reflectivity mirror using this graph. Finally, the effect of the uncertainty in measuring layer thicknesses on the phase of reflected wave and transmitted wave is investigated.

Thermal behavior variations in coating thickness using pulse phase thermography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ranjit, Shrestha; Chung, Yoonjae; Kim, Won Tae [Kongju National University, Cheonan (Korea, Republic of)

2016-08-15

This paper presents a study on the use of pulsed phase thermography in the measurement of thermal barrier coating thickness with a numerical simulation. A multilayer heat transfer model was used to analyze the surface temperature response acquired from one-sided pulsed thermal imaging. The test sample comprised four layers: the metal substrate, bond coat, thermally grown oxide and the top coat. The finite element software, ANSYS, was used to model and predict the temperature distribution in the test sample under an imposed heat flux on the exterior of the TBC. The phase image was computed with the use of the software MATLAB and Thermofit Pro using a Fourier transform. The relationship between the coating thickness and the corresponding phase angle was then established with the coating thickness being expressed as a function of the phase angle. The method is successfully applied to measure the coating thickness that varied from 0.25 mm to 1.5 mm.

Influence of Pt thickness on magnetization reversal processes in (Pt/Co)3 multilayers with perpendicular anisotropy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Belhi, R.; Adanlété Adjanoh, A.; Vogel, J.

2012-01-01

We present a detailed study of the magnetization reversal in perpendicularly magnetized (Pt/Co) 3 multilayers with different values of the platinum interlayer thickness t Pt . To study the magnetization reversal in our samples we combined measurements of relaxation curves with the direct visualization of domain structures. Magnetization reversal was dominated by domain wall propagation for t Pt =1 nm and by domain nucleation for t Pt =0.2 nm, while a mixed process was observed for t Pt =0.8 nm. We interpret our results within the framework of a model of thermally activated reversal where a distribution of activation energy barriers is taken into account. The reversal process was correlated with the energy barrier distribution. - Highlights: ► We show that the coercivity decreases with the Pt interlayer thickness. ► The reversal process is sensitively dependent on platinum interlayer thickness. ► We interpreted the results by taking into account of an energy barrier distribution. ► The reversal process was correlated with the energy barrier distribution width. ► The energy barrier distribution width varies linearly with the applied field.

Present scenario of landing and distribution of fish in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, M; Khatun, S; Hossain, M B; Hassan, M N; Nowsad, A A K M

2013-11-15

The present study was designed to know the landing and distribution pathways of fish and types and nature of stakeholders involved in fish distribution chain in Bangladesh. A total of 237 fish landing centers and 5440 markets were detected. The number of landing center and market were highest in Chittagong and Dhaka division respectively. Stakeholders in fish distribution, viz., arotdars, paikers and retailers were found to be 6219, 39506 and 122922, respectively. A 84.71% of the landing centers were found to be operated year round while 15.29% were seasonal. The major fish production zones and major gateways of the country where inland capture and culture and marine capture fish landed were identified. In any locality 62.83% of the landed fish were transported within 100 km area and 5.73% of fish were transported beyond 500 km. The quantity of fish harvested from river, beel, Kaptai lake floodplain, pond, baor, coastal area/sea and shrimp/prawn farm were 5.25, 4.41, 0.13, 35.03, 38.22, 0.23, 10.93 and 5.80%, respectively. The common constraints identified were lack of adequate infrastructure facilities in the landing center and market, unhygienic environment, influence of middlemen, money lending at high rate etc. For the betterment of fish landing and distribution, appropriate authority should pay proper attention so that both quality and fair price are ensured.

Development of Digital Mock-Up for the Assessment of Dismantling Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun

2008-01-01

As the number of superannuated research reactors and nuclear power plants increase, dismantling nuclear power facilities has become a big issue. However, decommissioning a nuclear facility is still a costly and possibly hazardous task. So prior to an actual decommission, what should be done foremost is to establish a proper procedure. Due to the fact that a significant difference in cost, exposure to a radiation, and safety might occur, a proper procedure is imperative for the entire engineering process. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system for evaluating the decommissioning scenarios logically and systematically. So a digital mockup system with functions such as a dismantling schedule, decommissioning costs, wastes, worker's exposure dose, and a radiation distribution was developed. Also on the basis of the quantitative information calculated from a DMU system and the data evaluated by decommissioning experts about qualitatively evaluating the items, the best decommissioning scenarios were established by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Finally, the DMU was implemented in the thermal column of KRR-1 and adequate scenarios were provided after comparing and analyzing the two scenarios. In this paper, we developed the virtual environment of KRR-1 by using computer graphic technology and simulating the dismantling processes. The data-computing modules were also developed for quantitatively comparing the decommissioning scenarios. The decommissioning DMU system was integrated with both the VE system and the data-computing modules. In addition, we presented a decision-making method for selecting the best decommissioning scenario through the AHP. So the scenarios can be evaluated logically and quantitatively through the decommissioning DMU. As an implementation of the AHP, the plasma cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario of the thermal column were prioritized. The fact that the plasma cutting scenario ranked the better than the

Sensitivity assessment of fuel performance codes for LOCA accident scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abe, Alfredo; Gomes, Daniel; Silva, Antonio Teixeira e; Muniz, Rafael O.R. [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Giovedi, Claudia; Martins, Marcelo, E-mail: ayabe@ipen.br, E-mail: claudia.giovedi@labrisco.usp.br [Universidade de Sao Paulo (LABRISCO/USP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Lab. de Análise, Avaliação e Gerenciamento de Risco

2017-07-01

FRAPCON code predicts fuel rod performance in LWR (Light Water Reactor) by modeling fuel responses under normal operating conditions and anticipated operational occurrences; FRAPTRAN code is applied for fuel transient under fast transient and accident conditions. The codes are well known and applied for different purposes and one of the use is to address sensitivity analysis considering fuel design parameters associated to fabrication, moreover can address the effect of physical models bias. The objective of this work was to perform an assessment of fuel manufacturing parameters tolerances and fuel models bias using FRAPCON and FRAPTRAN codes for Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) scenario. The preliminary analysis considered direct approach taken into account most relevant manufacturing tolerances (lower and upper bounds) related to design parameters and physical models bias without considering their statistical distribution. The simulations were carried out using the data available in the open literature related to the series of LOCA experiment performed at the Halden reactor (specifically IFA-650.5). The manufacturing tolerances associated to design parameters considered in this paper were: enrichment, cladding thickness, pellet diameter, pellet density, and filling gas pressure. The physical models considered were: fuel thermal expansion, fission gas release, fuel swelling, irradiation creep, cladding thermal expansion, cladding corrosion, and cladding hydrogen pickup. The results obtained from sensitivity analysis addressed the impact of manufacturing tolerances and physical models in the fuel cladding burst time observed for the IFA-650.5 experiment. (author)

Sensitivity assessment of fuel performance codes for LOCA accident scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abe, Alfredo; Gomes, Daniel; Silva, Antonio Teixeira e; Muniz, Rafael O.R.; Giovedi, Claudia; Martins, Marcelo

2017-01-01

FRAPCON code predicts fuel rod performance in LWR (Light Water Reactor) by modeling fuel responses under normal operating conditions and anticipated operational occurrences; FRAPTRAN code is applied for fuel transient under fast transient and accident conditions. The codes are well known and applied for different purposes and one of the use is to address sensitivity analysis considering fuel design parameters associated to fabrication, moreover can address the effect of physical models bias. The objective of this work was to perform an assessment of fuel manufacturing parameters tolerances and fuel models bias using FRAPCON and FRAPTRAN codes for Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) scenario. The preliminary analysis considered direct approach taken into account most relevant manufacturing tolerances (lower and upper bounds) related to design parameters and physical models bias without considering their statistical distribution. The simulations were carried out using the data available in the open literature related to the series of LOCA experiment performed at the Halden reactor (specifically IFA-650.5). The manufacturing tolerances associated to design parameters considered in this paper were: enrichment, cladding thickness, pellet diameter, pellet density, and filling gas pressure. The physical models considered were: fuel thermal expansion, fission gas release, fuel swelling, irradiation creep, cladding thermal expansion, cladding corrosion, and cladding hydrogen pickup. The results obtained from sensitivity analysis addressed the impact of manufacturing tolerances and physical models in the fuel cladding burst time observed for the IFA-650.5 experiment. (author)

Development and Implementation of Methods and Means for Achieving a Uniform Functional Coating Thickness

Science.gov (United States)

Shishlov, A. V.; Sagatelyan, G. R.; Shashurin, V. D.

2017-12-01

A mathematical model is proposed to calculate the growth rate of the thin-film coating thickness at various points in a flat substrate surface during planetary motion of the substrate, which makes it possible to calculate an expected coating thickness distribution. Proper software package is developed. The coefficients used for computer simulation are experimentally determined.

Testing a distributed hydrological model to predict scenarios of extreme events on a marginal olive orchard microcatchment

Science.gov (United States)

Guzmán, Enrique; Aguilar, Cristina; Taguas, Encarnación V.

2014-05-01

Olive groves constitute a traditional Mediterranean crop and thus, an important source of income to these regions and a crucial landscape component. Despite its importance, most of the olive groves in the region of Andalusia, Southern Spain, are located in sloping areas, which implies a significant risk of erosion. The combination of data and models allow enhancing the knowledge about processes taking place in these areas as well as the prediction of future scenarios. This aspect might be essential to plan soil protection strategies within a context of climate change where the IPCC estimates a significant increase of soil aridity and torrential events by the end of the century. The objective of this study is to estimate the rainfall-runoff-sediment dynamics in a microcatchment olive grove with the aid of a physically-based distributed hydrological model in order to evaluate the effect of extreme events on runoff and erosion. This study will allow to improve land-use and management planning activities in similar areas. In addition, the scale of the study (microcatchment) will allow to contrast the results in larger areas such as catchment regional spatial scales.

Representation of the thickness distribution of channels and stratigraphic events at one of the Iranian fields in the Hormuz Strait using a composite plot and RGB display technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saadatinejad, M R; Javaherian, A; Hassani, H

2011-01-01

The Hormuz Strait is an important area which is located between the Persian Gulf, with half the oil reserves of the world, and the Oman Sea south of Iran. Many geophysical studies have been done to analyse the structure of subsurface layers in this strait and explore many new gas reservoirs as these findings help to simulate images from reservoir stratigraphy and understand the paleo-depositional environments. Spectral decomposition, which is a quick and important method in seismic interpretation, provides a strong tool to study these types of subsurface layers. In this paper, a red–green–blue (RGB) multi-colour display technique has been performed as an effective interpretation tool. This technique stacks three different frequencies with three different colours for composite display. So, these frequency components show the distribution of channel thickness as we map the variation of thickness with a colour scale that is equal to the quantitative thickness according to its relationship with frequency. In addition, seismic attributes such as coherency, peak and instantaneous frequency, which are sensitive to the edges of stratigraphic events (such as channels), are shown with a composite plot too; although the RGB technique is better than other techniques, for thickness variation a combined application is the best method of study

Methods To Determine the Silicone Oil Layer Thickness in Sprayed-On Siliconized Syringes.

Science.gov (United States)

Loosli, Viviane; Germershaus, Oliver; Steinberg, Henrik; Dreher, Sascha; Grauschopf, Ulla; Funke, Stefanie

2018-01-01

The silicone lubricant layer in prefilled syringes has been investigated with regards to siliconization process performance, prefilled syringe functionality, and drug product attributes, such as subvisible particle levels, in several studies in the past. However, adequate methods to characterize the silicone oil layer thickness and distribution are limited, and systematic evaluation is missing. In this study, white light interferometry was evaluated to close this gap in method understanding. White light interferometry demonstrated a good accuracy of 93-99% for MgF 2 coated, curved standards covering a thickness range of 115-473 nm. Thickness measurements for sprayed-on siliconized prefilled syringes with different representative silicone oil distribution patterns (homogeneous, pronounced siliconization at flange or needle side, respectively) showed high instrument (0.5%) and analyst precision (4.1%). Different white light interferometry instrument parameters (autofocus, protective shield, syringe barrel dimensions input, type of non-siliconized syringe used as base reference) had no significant impact on the measured average layer thickness. The obtained values from white light interferometry applying a fully developed method (12 radial lines, 50 mm measurement distance, 50 measurements points) were in agreement with orthogonal results from combined white and laser interferometry and 3D-laser scanning microscopy. The investigated syringe batches (lot A and B) exhibited comparable longitudinal silicone oil layer thicknesses ranging from 170-190 nm to 90-100 nm from flange to tip and homogeneously distributed silicone layers over the syringe barrel circumference (110- 135 nm). Empty break-loose (4-4.5 N) and gliding forces (2-2.5 N) were comparably low for both analyzed syringe lots. A silicone oil layer thickness of 100-200 nm was thus sufficient for adequate functionality in this particular study. Filling the syringe with a surrogate solution including short

Magma Supply of Southwest Indian Ocean: Implication from Crustal Thickness Anomalies

Science.gov (United States)

Chiheng, L.; Jianghai, L.; Huatian, Z.; Qingkai, F.

2017-12-01

The Southwest Indian Ridge (SWIR) is one of the world's slowest spreading ridges with a full spreading rate of 14mm a-1, belonging to ultraslow spreading ridge, which are a novel class of spreading centers symbolized by non-uniform magma supply and crustal accretion. Therefore, the crustal thickness of Southwest Indian Ocean is a way to explore the magmatic and tectonic process of SWIR and the hotspots around it. Our paper uses Residual Mantle Bouguer Anomaly processed with the latest global public data to invert the relative crustal thickness and correct it according to seismic achievements. Gravity-derived crustal thickness model reveals a huge range of crustal thickness in Southwest Indian Ocean from 0.04km to 24km, 7.5km of average crustal thickness, and 3.5km of standard deviation. In addition, statistics data of crustal thickness reveal the frequency has a bimodal mixed skewed distribution, which indicates the crustal accretion by ridge and ridge-plume interaction. Base on the crustal thickness model, we divide three types of crustal thickness in Southwest Indian Ocean. About 20.31% of oceanic crust is 9.8km thick as thick crust. Furthermore, Prominent thin crust anomalies are associated with the trend of most transform faults, but thick crust anomalies presents to northeast of Andrew Bain transform fault. Cold and depleted mantle are also the key factors to form the thin crust. The thick crust anomalies are constrained by hotspots, which provide abundant heat to the mantle beneath mid-ocean ridge or ocean basin. Finally, we roughly delineate the range of ridge-plume interaction and transform fault effect.

Determination of a Critical Sea Ice Thickness Threshold for the Central Arctic Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Ford, V.; Frauenfeld, O. W.; Nowotarski, C. J.

2017-12-01

While sea ice extent is readily measurable from satellite observations and can be used to assess the overall survivability of the Arctic sea ice pack, determining the spatial variability of sea ice thickness remains a challenge. Turbulent and conductive heat fluxes are extremely sensitive to ice thickness but are dominated by the sensible heat flux, with energy exchange expected to increase with thinner ice cover. Fluxes over open water are strongest and have the greatest influence on the atmosphere, while fluxes over thick sea ice are minimal as heat conduction from the ocean through thick ice cannot reach the atmosphere. We know that turbulent energy fluxes are strongest over open ocean, but is there a "critical thickness of ice" where fluxes are considered non-negligible? Through polar-optimized Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations, this study assesses how the wintertime Arctic surface boundary layer, via sensible heat flux exchange and surface air temperature, responds to sea ice thinning. The region immediately north of Franz Josef Land is characterized by a thickness gradient where sea ice transitions from the thickest multi-year ice to the very thin marginal ice seas. This provides an ideal location to simulate how the diminishing Arctic sea ice interacts with a warming atmosphere. Scenarios include both fixed sea surface temperature domains for idealized thickness variability, and fixed ice fields to detect changes in the ocean-ice-atmosphere energy exchange. Results indicate that a critical thickness threshold exists below 1 meter. The threshold is between 0.4-1 meters thinner than the critical thickness for melt season survival - the difference between first year and multi-year ice. Turbulent heat fluxes and surface air temperature increase as sea ice thickness transitions from perennial ice to seasonal ice. While models predict a sea ice free Arctic at the end of the warm season in future decades, sea ice will continue to transform

Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

2008-01-01

This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

Angular distribution measurements of photo-neutron yields produced by 2.0 GeV electrons incident on thick targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, H. S.; Ban, S.; Sanami, T.; Takahashi, K.; Sato, T.; Shin, K.; Chung, C.

2005-01-01

A study of differential photo-neutron yields by irradiation with 2 GeV electrons has been carried out. In this extension of a previous study in which measurements were made at an angle of 90 deg. relative to incident electrons, the differential photo-neutron yield was obtained at two other angles, 48 deg. and 140 deg., to study its angular characteristics. Photo-neutron spectra were measured using a pulsed beam time-of-flight method and a BC418 plastic scintillator. The reliable range of neutron energy measurement was 8-250 MeV. The neutron spectra were measured for 10 Xo-thick Cu, Sn, W and Pb targets. The angular distribution characteristics, together with the previous results for 90 deg., are presented in the study. The experimental results are compared with Monte Carlo calculation results. The yields predicted by MCNPX 2.5 tend to underestimate the measured ones. The same trend holds for the comparison results using the EGS4 and PICA3 codes. (authors)

Angular distribution measurements of photo-neutron yields produced by 2.0 GeV electrons incident on thick targets.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hee-Seock; Ban, Syuichi; Sanami, Toshiya; Takahashi, Kazutoshi; Sato, Tatsuhiko; Shin, Kazuo; Chung, Chinwha

2005-01-01

A study of differential photo-neutron yields by irradiation with 2 GeV electrons has been carried out. In this extension of a previous study in which measurements were made at an angle of 90 degrees relative to incident electrons, the differential photo-neutron yield was obtained at two other angles, 48 degrees and 140 degrees, to study its angular characteristics. Photo-neutron spectra were measured using a pulsed beam time-of-flight method and a BC418 plastic scintillator. The reliable range of neutron energy measurement was 8-250 MeV. The neutron spectra were measured for 10 Xo-thick Cu, Sn, W and Pb targets. The angular distribution characteristics, together with the previous results for 90 degrees, are presented in the study. The experimental results are compared with Monte Carlo calculation results. The yields predicted by MCNPX 2.5 tend to underestimate the measured ones. The same trend holds for the comparison results using the EGS4 and PICA3 codes.

Manipulating single second mode transparency in a corrugated waveguide via the thickness of sputtered gold

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu, Dan [Key Lab of In-fiber Integrated Optics, Ministry of Education of China, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001 (China); Photonics Research Center, College of Science, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001 (China); Fan, Ya-Xian, E-mail: yxfan@hrbeu.edu.cn [Key Lab of In-fiber Integrated Optics, Ministry of Education of China, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001 (China); Photonics Research Center, College of Science, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001 (China); Sang, Tang-Qing; Xu, Lan-Lan; Bibi, Aysha [Key Lab of In-fiber Integrated Optics, Ministry of Education of China, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001 (China); Photonics Research Center, College of Science, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001 (China); Tao, Zhi-Yong, E-mail: zytao@hrbeu.edu.cn [Key Lab of In-fiber Integrated Optics, Ministry of Education of China, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001 (China); Photonics Research Center, College of Science, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001 (China)

2016-03-11

We propose a classical analog of electromagnetically induced transparency in a cylindrical waveguide with undulated metallic walls. The transparency, induced by multi-mode interactions in waveguides, not only has a narrow line-width, but also consists of a single second-order transverse mode, which corresponds to the Bessel function distributions investigated extensively due to their unique characteristics. By increasing the thickness of sputtered gold layers of the waveguide, we demonstrate a frequency-agile single mode transparency phenomenon in a terahertz radiation. It is found that the center frequency of the transparency is linearly related to the gold thickness, indicating the achievement of a controllable single mode terahertz device. The field distributions at the cross-sections of outlets verify the single second mode transparency and indicate the mechanism of its frequency manipulation, which will significantly benefit the mode-control engineering in terahertz applications. - Highlights: • An analog of electromagnetically induced transparency in terahertz tubes is proposed. • A single second transverse mode of Bessel distributions is observed in the pass band. • The operating frequency can be linearly controlled by the sputtered gold thickness. • We can effectively manipulate the slow down factor of light by the gold thickness. • The transparency characteristics rely on the transition of multi-mode interactions.

Manipulating single second mode transparency in a corrugated waveguide via the thickness of sputtered gold

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu, Dan; Fan, Ya-Xian; Sang, Tang-Qing; Xu, Lan-Lan; Bibi, Aysha; Tao, Zhi-Yong

2016-01-01

We propose a classical analog of electromagnetically induced transparency in a cylindrical waveguide with undulated metallic walls. The transparency, induced by multi-mode interactions in waveguides, not only has a narrow line-width, but also consists of a single second-order transverse mode, which corresponds to the Bessel function distributions investigated extensively due to their unique characteristics. By increasing the thickness of sputtered gold layers of the waveguide, we demonstrate a frequency-agile single mode transparency phenomenon in a terahertz radiation. It is found that the center frequency of the transparency is linearly related to the gold thickness, indicating the achievement of a controllable single mode terahertz device. The field distributions at the cross-sections of outlets verify the single second mode transparency and indicate the mechanism of its frequency manipulation, which will significantly benefit the mode-control engineering in terahertz applications. - Highlights: • An analog of electromagnetically induced transparency in terahertz tubes is proposed. • A single second transverse mode of Bessel distributions is observed in the pass band. • The operating frequency can be linearly controlled by the sputtered gold thickness. • We can effectively manipulate the slow down factor of light by the gold thickness. • The transparency characteristics rely on the transition of multi-mode interactions.

Influence of crustal layering and thickness on co-seismic effects of Wenchuan earthquake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tan Hongbo

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Using the PSGRN/PSCMP software and the fault model offered by USGS and on the basis of finite rectangular dislocation theory and the local layered wave velocity structures of the crust-upper-mantle, the influences of crustal layering and thickness on co-seismic gravity changes and deformation of Wenchuan earthquake have been simulated. The results indicate that; the influences have a relationship with the attitude of faults and the relative position between calculated points and fault. The difference distribution form of simulated results between the two models is similar to that of co-seismic effect. For the per centum distribution, it’s restricted by the zero line of the co-seismic effects obviously. Its positive is far away from the zero line. For the crustal thickness, the effect is about 10% – 20%. The negative and the effect over 30% focus around the zero line. The average influences of crustal layering and thickness for the E-W displacement, N-S displacement, vertical displacement and gravity changes are 18.4%,18.0%, 15.8% and 16.2% respectively, When the crustal thickness is 40 km, they are 4.6%, 5.3%, 3.8% and 3.8%. Then the crustal thickness is 70 km, the average influences are 3.5%, 4.6%, 3.0% and 2.5% respectively.

Economic and financial viability of small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico: economic scenario 2010-2018.

Science.gov (United States)

Posadas-Domínguez, R R; Callejas-Juárez, N; Arriaga-Jordán, C M; Martínez-Castañeda, F E

2016-12-01

A simulation Monte Carlo model was used to assess the economic and financial viability of 130 small-scale dairy farms in central Mexico, through a Representative Small-Scale Dairy Farm. Net yields were calculated for a 9-year planning horizon by means of simulated values for the distribution of input and product prices taking 2010 as base year and considering four scenarios which were compared against the scenario of actual production. The other scenarios were (1) total hiring in of needed labour; (2) external purchase of 100 % of inputs and (3) withdrawal of subsidies to production. A stochastic modelling approach was followed to determine the scenario with the highest economic and financial viability. Results show a viable economic and financial situation for the real production scenario, as well as the scenarios for total hiring of labour and of withdrawal of subsidies, but the scenario when 100 % of feed inputs for the herd are bought-in was not viable.

Historical biogeography of the land snail Cornu aspersum: a new scenario inferred from haplotype distribution in the Western Mediterranean basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Madec Luc

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite its key location between the rest of the continent and Europe, research on the phylogeography of north African species remains very limited compared to European and North American taxa. The Mediterranean land mollusc Cornu aspersum (= Helix aspersa is part of the few species widely sampled in north Africa for biogeographical analysis. It then provides an excellent biological model to understand phylogeographical patterns across the Mediterranean basin, and to evaluate hypotheses of population differentiation. We investigated here the phylogeography of this land snail to reassess the evolutionary scenario we previously considered for explaining its scattered distribution in the western Mediterranean, and to help to resolve the question of the direction of its range expansion (from north Africa to Europe or vice versa. By analysing simultaneously individuals from 73 sites sampled in its putative native range, the present work provides the first broad-scale screening of mitochondrial variation (cyt b and 16S rRNA genes of C. aspersum. Results Phylogeographical structure mirrored previous patterns inferred from anatomy and nuclear data, since all haplotypes could be ascribed to a B (West or a C (East lineage. Alternative migration models tested confirmed that C. aspersum most likely spread from north Africa to Europe. In addition to Kabylia in Algeria, which would have been successively a centre of dispersal and a zone of secondary contacts, we identified an area in Galicia where genetically distinct west and east type populations would have regained contact. Conclusions Vicariant and dispersal processes are reviewed and discussed in the light of signatures left in the geographical distribution of the genetic variation. In referring to Mediterranean taxa which show similar phylogeographical patterns, we proposed a parsimonious scenario to account for the "east-west" genetic splitting and the northward expansion of the

Effects of buffer thickness on ATW blanket performances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Won Sik

2001-01-01

This paper presents the preliminary results of target and buffer design studies for a lead-bismuth eutectic (LBE) cooled accelerator transmutation of waste (ATW) system, aimed at maximizing the source importance while simultaneously reducing the irradiation damage to fuel. Using an 840 MWt LBE cooled ATW design, the effects of buffer thickness on the blanket performances have been studied. Varying the buffer thickness for a given blanket configuration, system performances have been estimated by a series of calculations using MCNPX and REBUS-3 codes. The effects of source importance change are studied by investigating the low-energy (< 20 MeV) neutron source distribution and the equilibrium cycle blanket performance parameters such as fuel inventory, discharge burnup, burnup reactivity loss, and peak fast fluence. As the irradiation damage to fuel, the displacements per atom (dpa), hydrogen production, and helium production rates are evaluated at the buffer and blanket interface where the peak fast fluence occurs. The results show that the damage rates and the source importance increase monotonically as the buffer thickness decreases. Based on a compromise between the competing objectives of increasing the source importance and reducing the damage rates, a buffer thickness of around 20 cm appears to be reasonable

Thickness-Dependent Strain Effect on the Deformation of the Graphene-Encapsulated Au Nanoparticles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shuangli Ye

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The strain effect on graphene-encapsulated Au nanoparticles is investigated. A finite-element calculation is performed to simulate the strain distribution and morphology of the monolayer and multilayer graphene-encapsulated Au nanoparticles, respectively. It can be found that the inhomogeneous strain and deformation are enhanced with the increasing shrinkage of the graphene shell. Moreover, the strain distribution and deformation are very sensitive to the layer number of the graphene shell. Especially, the inhomogeneous strain at the interface between the graphene shell and encapsulated Au nanoparticles is strongly tuned by the graphene thickness. For the mono- and bilayer graphene-encapsulated Au nanoparticles, the dramatic shape transformation can be observed. However, with increasing the graphene thickness further, there is hardly deformation for the encapsulated Au nanoparticles. These simulated results indicate that the strain and deformation can be designed by the graphene layer thickness, which provides an opportunity to engineer the structure and morphology of the graphene-encapsulated nanoparticles.

Investigations of effect of target thickness and detector collimation on 662 keV multiply backscattered gamma photons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sabharwal, Arvind D.; Sandhu, B.S.; Singh, Bhajan

2009-01-01

The present studies aimed to investigate the effects of detector collimation and target thickness on multiply backscattered gamma photons. The numbers of multiply backscattered events, having energy the same as in singly scattered distribution, are found to be increasing with target thickness, and saturate for a particular thickness known as saturation thickness. The saturation thickness is not altered by the variation in the collimator opening. The number and energy albedos, characterizing the reflection probability of a material, are also evaluated. Monte Carlo calculations support the present experimental work.

Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

2009-01-01

Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tesauro, M.; Kaban, M.K.; Cloetingh, S.A.P.L.

2013-01-01

Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young

Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Gao, X.

2012-12-01

In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

Uncertainty of simulated groundwater levels arising from stochastic transient climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Goderniaux, Pascal; Brouyère, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley; Dassargues, Alain

2010-05-01

The evaluation of climate change impact on groundwater reserves represents a difficult task because both hydrological and climatic processes are complex and difficult to model. In this study, we present an innovative methodology that combines the use of integrated surface - subsurface hydrological models with advanced stochastic transient climate change scenarios. This methodology is applied to the Geer basin (480 km²) in Belgium, which is intensively exploited to supply the city of Liège (Belgium) with drinking water. The physically-based, spatially-distributed, surface-subsurface flow model has been developed with the finite element model HydroGeoSphere . The simultaneous solution of surface and subsurface flow equations in HydroGeoSphere, as well as the internal calculation of the actual evapotranspiration as a function of the soil moisture at each node of the evaporative zone, enables a better representation of interconnected processes in all domains of the catchment (fully saturated zone, partially saturated zone, surface). Additionally, the use of both surface and subsurface observed data to calibrate the model better constrains the calibration of the different water balance terms. Crucially, in the context of climate change impacts on groundwater resources, the evaluation of groundwater recharge is improved. . This surface-subsurface flow model is combined with advanced climate change scenarios for the Geer basin. Climate change simulations were obtained from six regional climate model (RCM) scenarios assuming the SRES A2 greenhouse gases emission (medium-high) scenario. These RCM scenarios were statistically downscaled using a transient stochastic weather generator technique, combining 'RainSim' and the 'CRU weather generator' for temperature and evapotranspiration time series. This downscaling technique exhibits three advantages compared with the 'delta change' method usually used in groundwater impact studies. (1) Corrections to climate model output are

Real-time Energy Resource Scheduling considering a Real Portuguese Scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Silva, Marco; Sousa, Tiago; Morais, Hugo

2014-01-01

The development in power systems and the introduction of decentralized gen eration and Electric Vehicles (EVs), both connected to distribution networks, represents a major challenge in the planning and operation issues. This new paradigm requires a new energy resources management approach which...... scheduling in smart grids, considering day - ahead, hour - ahead and real - time scheduling. The case study considers a 33 - bus distribution network with high penetration of distributed energy resources . The wind generation profile is base d o n a rea l Portuguese wind farm . Four scenarios are presented...... taking into account 0, 1, 2 and 5 periods (hours or minutes) ahead of the scheduling period in the hour - ahead and real - time scheduling...

Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

OpenAIRE

Magdala Tesauro; Mikhail Kaban; S. A. P. L. Cloetingh

2013-01-01

Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young modulus (E) within the lithosphere. In view of the large uncertainties affecting strength estimates, we evaluate global strength and Te distributions for possible end-member ‘hard’ (HRM) and a ‘soft’ (SR...

Choroidal thickness in Malaysian eyes with full-thickness macular holes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chew Y Tan

2018-02-01

Full Text Available AIM: To compare choroidal thickness at the macula in eyes with unilateral idiopathic full-thickness macular holes(FTMHwith that of unaffected fellow eyes, and eyes of normal control patients.METHODS: Cross-sectional study. Thirty patients with unilateral idiopathic FTMH and thirty age, sex, and race-matched controls were recruited. Axial lengths were measured using laser interferometry. Enhanced depth imaging optical coherence tomography images were obtained using Heidelberg spectral-domain optical coherence tomography. Choroidal thickness was measured at the fovea, and at 1 mm and 2 mm nasally, temporally, superiorly and inferiorly from the center of the fovea. Statistical analysis was performed using independent and paired t-tests, chi-square tests, and Pearson correlation tests(PRESULTS: The mean subfoveal choroidal thickness was 201.0±44.0 μm in the FTMH group, 225.3±51.4 μm in the fellow eye group and 262.3±70.3 μm in the control group. The choroid was thinner in FTMH eyes at all locations when compared to control eyes(PPP>0.05. Choroidal thickness was generally highest subfoveally and lowest nasally. Subfoveal choroidal thickness was negatively correlated with age(r=-0.278, P=0.032, and axial length(r=-0.328, P=0.011.CONCLUSION: Choroidal thickness is lower in both eyes of patients with unilateral FTMH compared to healthy control eyes.

Tsunamigenic scenarios for southern Peru and northern Chile seismic gap: Deterministic and probabilistic hybrid approach for hazard assessment

Science.gov (United States)

González-Carrasco, J. F.; Gonzalez, G.; Aránguiz, R.; Yanez, G. A.; Melgar, D.; Salazar, P.; Shrivastava, M. N.; Das, R.; Catalan, P. A.; Cienfuegos, R.

2017-12-01

Plausible worst-case tsunamigenic scenarios definition plays a relevant role in tsunami hazard assessment focused in emergency preparedness and evacuation planning for coastal communities. During the last decade, the occurrence of major and moderate tsunamigenic earthquakes along worldwide subduction zones has given clues about critical parameters involved in near-field tsunami inundation processes, i.e. slip spatial distribution, shelf resonance of edge waves and local geomorphology effects. To analyze the effects of these seismic and hydrodynamic variables over the epistemic uncertainty of coastal inundation, we implement a combined methodology using deterministic and probabilistic approaches to construct 420 tsunamigenic scenarios in a mature seismic gap of southern Peru and northern Chile, extended from 17ºS to 24ºS. The deterministic scenarios are calculated using a regional distribution of trench-parallel gravity anomaly (TPGA) and trench-parallel topography anomaly (TPTA), three-dimensional Slab 1.0 worldwide subduction zones geometry model and published interseismic coupling (ISC) distributions. As result, we find four higher slip deficit zones interpreted as major seismic asperities of the gap, used in a hierarchical tree scheme to generate ten tsunamigenic scenarios with seismic magnitudes fluctuates between Mw 8.4 to Mw 8.9. Additionally, we construct ten homogeneous slip scenarios as inundation baseline. For the probabilistic approach, we implement a Karhunen - Loève expansion to generate 400 stochastic tsunamigenic scenarios over the maximum extension of the gap, with the same magnitude range of the deterministic sources. All the scenarios are simulated through a non-hydrostatic tsunami model Neowave 2D, using a classical nesting scheme, for five coastal major cities in northern Chile (Arica, Iquique, Tocopilla, Mejillones and Antofagasta) obtaining high resolution data of inundation depth, runup, coastal currents and sea level elevation. The

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

2014-01-01

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Duus, Henrik Johannsen

2016-01-01

insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

An examination of mass thickness measurements with X-ray sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Mincong; Li Hongmei; Chen Ziyu; Shen Ji

2008-01-01

A method using X-rays to measure mass thickness is discussed. The method utilizes a filter to absorb low energy and characteristic photons so that the hardened X-ray spectra have a peaked energy distribution. An equivalent X-ray energy, which defines the attenuation in a material of interest can be used. The effect on the X-ray spectra of different filters is examined with Monte Carlo simulation using the EGSnrc package. A theoretical model for X-ray absorption that shows that the method can achieve good precision for a certain range of mass thicknesses is advanced. Experimental results agree well with the theoretical analysis. It is found that for a certain range of mass thicknesses, the relative error can be less than 1% for the aluminum alloy sample at the tube voltage of 30 or 45 kV

An examination of mass thickness measurements with X-ray sources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen Mincong; Li Hongmei; Chen Ziyu [Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Jin Zhai Road, Hefei 230026 (China); Shen Ji [Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Jin Zhai Road, Hefei 230026 (China)], E-mail: shenji@ustc.edu.cn

2008-10-15

A method using X-rays to measure mass thickness is discussed. The method utilizes a filter to absorb low energy and characteristic photons so that the hardened X-ray spectra have a peaked energy distribution. An equivalent X-ray energy, which defines the attenuation in a material of interest can be used. The effect on the X-ray spectra of different filters is examined with Monte Carlo simulation using the EGSnrc package. A theoretical model for X-ray absorption that shows that the method can achieve good precision for a certain range of mass thicknesses is advanced. Experimental results agree well with the theoretical analysis. It is found that for a certain range of mass thicknesses, the relative error can be less than 1% for the aluminum alloy sample at the tube voltage of 30 or 45 kV.

Optimized thick-wall cylinders by virtue of Poisson's ratio selection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whitty, J.P.M.; Henderson, B.; Francis, J.; Lloyd, N.

2011-01-01

The principal stress distributions in thick-wall cylinders due to variation in the Poisson's ratio are predicted using analytical and finite element methods. Analyses of appropriate brittle and ductile failure criteria show that under the isochoric pressure conditions investigated that auextic (i.e. those possessing a negative Poisson's ratio) materials act as stress concentrators; hence they are predicted to fail before their conventional (i.e. possessing a positive Poisson's ratio) material counterparts. The key finding of the work presented shows that for constrained thick-wall cylinders the maximum tensile principal stress can vanish at a particular Poisson's ratio and aspect ratio. This phenomenon is exploited in order to present an optimized design criterion for thick-wall cylinders. Moreover, via the use of a cogent finite element model, this criterion is also shown to be applicable for the design of micro-porous materials.

Scenario? Guilty!

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kyng, Morten

1992-01-01

Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

Learning from global emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2008-01-01

Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

Ice thickness estimations based on multi-temporal glacier inventories - potential and challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Helfricht, Kay; Huss, Matthias; Otto, Jan-Christoph

2016-04-01

The ongoing glacier retreat exposes a large number of surface depressions in the former glacier bed that can be filled with water or act as sediment traps. This has already been observed at various sites in Austria and in other mountain areas worldwide. The formation of glacial lakes can constitute an important environmental and socio-economic impact on high mountain systems including water resource management, sediment delivery, natural hazards, energy production and tourism. In general, information on ice thickness distribution is the basis for simulating future glacier change. We used the approach proposed by Huss and Farinotti (2012) to model the ice thickness distribution and potential locations of subglacial depressions. The study is part of the FUTURELAKE project that seeks to model the formation of new glacier lakes and their possible future evolution in the Austria Alps. The required data on glacier extent, surface elevation and slope were taken from the Austrian Glacier Inventories GI1 from 1969, GI2 from 1998 and GI3 from2006 (Fischer et al., 2015). The different glacier outlines and surface elevations from the inventories enable us to evaluate (i) the robustness of the modelled bedrock depressions with respect to different glacier settings, (ii) the power of the model to simulate recently formed glacial lakes, (iii) the similarities in calculated ice thickness distributions across the inventories and (iv) the feasibility of simulating observed changes in ice thickness and glacier volume. In general, the modelled localization of large potential depressions was relatively stable using the observed glacier settings. A number of examples show that recently formed glacial lakes could be detected by the model based on previous glacier extents. The locations of maximum ice depths within different elevation zones appeared to be sensitive to changes in glacier width. However, observed ice thickness changes and, thus, volume changes between the inventories could

Dendritic thickness: a morphometric parameter to classify mouse retinal ganglion cells

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L.D. Loopuijt

2007-10-01

Full Text Available To study the dendritic morphology of retinal ganglion cells in wild-type mice we intracellularly injected these cells with Lucifer yellow in an in vitro preparation of the retina. Subsequently, quantified values of dendritic thickness, number of branching points and level of stratification of 73 Lucifer yellow-filled ganglion cells were analyzed by statistical methods, resulting in a classification into 9 groups. The variables dendritic thickness, number of branching points per cell and level of stratification were independent of each other. Number of branching points and level of stratification were independent of eccentricity, whereas dendritic thickness was positively dependent (r = 0.37 on it. The frequency distribution of dendritic thickness tended to be multimodal, indicating the presence of at least two cell populations composed of neurons with dendritic diameters either smaller or larger than 1.8 µm ("thin" or "thick" dendrites, respectively. Three cells (4.5% were bistratified, having thick dendrites, and the others (95.5% were monostratified. Using k-means cluster analysis, monostratified cells with either thin or thick dendrites were further subdivided according to level of stratification and number of branching points: cells with thin dendrites were divided into 2 groups with outer stratification (0-40% and 2 groups with inner (50-100% stratification, whereas cells with thick dendrites were divided into one group with outer and 3 groups with inner stratification. We postulate, that one group of cells with thin dendrites resembles cat ß-cells, whereas one group of cells with thick dendrites includes cells that resemble cat a-cells.

Effect of boundary layer thickness on the flow characteristics around a rectangular prism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ji, Ho Seong; Kim, Kyung Chun

2001-01-01

Effect of boundary layer thickness on the flow characteristics around a rectangular prism has been investigated by using a PIV(Particle Image Velocimetry) technique. Three different boundary layers (thick, medium and thin) were generated in the atmospheric boundary layer wind tunnel at Pusan National University. The thick boundary layer having 670mm thickness was generated by using spires and roughness elements. The medium thickness of boundary layer(δ=270mm) was the natural turbulent boundary layer at the test section with fully long developing length(18m). The thin boundary layer with 36.5mm thickness was generated by on a smooth panel elevated 70cm from the wind tunnel floor. The Reynolds number based on the free stream velocity and the height of the model was 7.9X10 3 . The mean velocity vector fields and turbulent kinetic energy distribution were measured and compared. The effect of boundary layer thickness is clearly observed not only in the length of separation bubble but also in the reattachment points. The thinner boundary layer thickness, the higher turbulent kinetic energy peak around the model roof. It is strongly recommended that the height ratio between model and approaching boundary layer thickness should be a major parameter

Dual-energy digital mammography: Calibration and inverse-mapping techniques to estimate calcification thickness and glandular-tissue ratio

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kappadath, S. Cheenu; Shaw, Chris C.

2003-01-01

Breast cancer may manifest as microcalcifications in x-ray mammography. Small microcalcifications, essential to the early detection of breast cancer, are often obscured by overlapping tissue structures. Dual-energy imaging, where separate low- and high-energy images are acquired and synthesized to cancel the tissue structures, may improve the ability to detect and visualize microcalcifications. Transmission measurements at two different kVp values were made on breast-tissue-equivalent materials under narrow-beam geometry using an indirect flat-panel mammographic imager. The imaging scenario consisted of variable aluminum thickness (to simulate calcifications) and variable glandular ratio (defined as the ratio of the glandular-tissue thickness to the total tissue thickness) for a fixed total tissue thickness--the clinical situation of microcalcification imaging with varying tissue composition under breast compression. The coefficients of the inverse-mapping functions used to determine material composition from dual-energy measurements were calculated by a least-squares analysis. The linear function poorly modeled both the aluminum thickness and the glandular ratio. The inverse-mapping functions were found to vary as analytic functions of second (conic) or third (cubic) order. By comparing the model predictions with the calibration values, the root-mean-square residuals for both the cubic and the conic functions were ∼50 μm for the aluminum thickness and ∼0.05 for the glandular ratio

The thickness of the HI gas layer in spiral galaxies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sicking, Floris Jan

1997-01-01

In the present study, in two inclined spiral galaxies, NGC 3198 and NGC 2403, the HI random velocity dispersion and layer thickness will be measured simultaneously. This will be done from the HI velocity dispersion field (the distribution on the sky of the observed HI line of sight velocity

Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís

2016-07-01

Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Public acceptance of management methods under different human-wildlife conflict scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Liordos, Vasilios; Kontsiotis, Vasileios J; Georgari, Marina; Baltzi, Kerasia; Baltzi, Ioanna

2017-02-01

Wildlife management seeks to minimise public controversy for successful application of wildlife control methods. Human dimensions research in wildlife seeks a better understanding of public preferences for effective human-wildlife conflict resolution. In face to face interviews, 630 adults in Greece were asked to rate on a 5-point Likert-like scale their acceptance of 3 management methods, i.e., do nothing, non-lethal control, and lethal control, in the context of 5 human-wildlife conflict scenarios: 1) corvids damage crops; 2) starlings damage crops; 3) starlings foul urban structures; 4) coypus damage crops; and 5) coypus transfer disease. Univariate GLMs determined occupation, hunting membership and their interaction as the stronger predictors of public acceptance, generating 4 stakeholder groups: the general public, farmers, hunters, and farmers-hunters. Differences in acceptance and consensus among stakeholder groups were assessed using the Potential for Conflict Index 2 (PCI 2 ). All 4 stakeholder groups agreed that doing nothing was unacceptable and non-lethal control acceptable in all 5 scenarios, with generally high consensus within and between groups. The lethal control method was more controversial and became increasingly more acceptable as the severity of scenarios was increased and between non-native and native species. Lethal control was unacceptable for the general public in all scenarios. Farmers accepted lethal methods in the corvids and starlings scenarios, were neutral in the coypus damage crops scenario, whereas they accepted lethal control when coypus transfer disease. Hunters' opinion was neutral in the corvids, starlings and coypus damage crops and starlings foul urban structures scenarios, but they accepted lethal methods in the coypus transfer disease scenario. Farmers-hunters considered lethal control acceptable in all 5 scenarios. Implications from this study could be used for designing a socio-ecological approach which incorporates

Empirical analysis for Distributed Energy Resources' impact on future distribution network

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Han, Xue; Sandels, Claes; Zhu, Kun

2012-01-01

There has been a large body of statements claiming that the large scale deployment of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) will eventually reshape the future distribution grid operation in various ways. Thus, it is interesting to introduce a platform to interpret to what extent the power system...... operation will be alternated. In this paper, quantitative results in terms of how the future distribution grid will be changed by the deployment of distributed generation, active demand and electric vehicles, are presented. The analysis is based on the conditions for both a radial and a meshed distribution...... network. The input parameters are based on the current and envisioned DER deployment scenarios proposed for Sweden....

Effect of the thickness of a fluoropolymer film on the radiotically prepared fuel cell membranes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ko, Beom Seok; Sohn, Joon Yong; Nho, Young Chang; Shin, Jun Hwa [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Jeongeup (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jong Il [Chonbuk National University, Jeonju (Korea, Republic of)

2010-06-15

To observe the effect of the thickness of a fluoropolymer film on the radiotically prepared fuel cell membranes, fuel cell membranes with various thickness were prepared by simultaneous radiation grafting of styrene into polyethylene-co-tetrafluoroethylene (ETFE) with various thicknesses (25, 50 and 100 {mu}m) and subsequent sulfonation. The physico-chemical properties of the prepared membranes such as ion exchange capacity, water uptake, distribution of sulfonic acid group were evaluated in the correlation with the thickness of ETFE film. In additions, proton conductivity and methanol permeability of the prepared membranes were also evaluated. The results revealed that the proton conductivity and methanol permeability of the prepared membranes were largely affected by the thickness of ETFE film utilized as a base film.

Effect of the thickness of a fluoropolymer film on the radiotically prepared fuel cell membranes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ko, Beom Seok; Sohn, Joon Yong; Nho, Young Chang; Shin, Jun Hwa; Kim, Jong Il

2010-01-01

To observe the effect of the thickness of a fluoropolymer film on the radiotically prepared fuel cell membranes, fuel cell membranes with various thickness were prepared by simultaneous radiation grafting of styrene into polyethylene-co-tetrafluoroethylene (ETFE) with various thicknesses (25, 50 and 100 μm) and subsequent sulfonation. The physico-chemical properties of the prepared membranes such as ion exchange capacity, water uptake, distribution of sulfonic acid group were evaluated in the correlation with the thickness of ETFE film. In additions, proton conductivity and methanol permeability of the prepared membranes were also evaluated. The results revealed that the proton conductivity and methanol permeability of the prepared membranes were largely affected by the thickness of ETFE film utilized as a base film

Standardized approach for developing probabilistic exposure factor distributions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maddalena, Randy L.; McKone, Thomas E.; Sohn, Michael D.

2003-03-01

The effectiveness of a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) depends critically on the quality of input information that is available to the risk assessor and specifically on the probabilistic exposure factor distributions that are developed and used in the exposure and risk models. Deriving probabilistic distributions for model inputs can be time consuming and subjective. The absence of a standard approach for developing these distributions can result in PRAs that are inconsistent and difficult to review by regulatory agencies. We present an approach that reduces subjectivity in the distribution development process without limiting the flexibility needed to prepare relevant PRAs. The approach requires two steps. First, we analyze data pooled at a population scale to (1) identify the most robust demographic variables within the population for a given exposure factor, (2) partition the population data into subsets based on these variables, and (3) construct archetypal distributions for each subpopulation. Second, we sample from these archetypal distributions according to site- or scenario-specific conditions to simulate exposure factor values and use these values to construct the scenario-specific input distribution. It is envisaged that the archetypal distributions from step 1 will be generally applicable so risk assessors will not have to repeatedly collect and analyze raw data for each new assessment. We demonstrate the approach for two commonly used exposure factors--body weight (BW) and exposure duration (ED)--using data for the U.S. population. For these factors we provide a first set of subpopulation based archetypal distributions along with methodology for using these distributions to construct relevant scenario-specific probabilistic exposure factor distributions.

The Comparison of Distributed P2P Trust Models Based on Quantitative Parameters in the File Downloading Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jingpei Wang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Varied P2P trust models have been proposed recently; it is necessary to develop an effective method to evaluate these trust models to resolve the commonalities (guiding the newly generated trust models in theory and individuality (assisting a decision maker in choosing an optimal trust model to implement in specific context issues. A new method for analyzing and comparing P2P trust models based on hierarchical parameters quantization in the file downloading scenarios is proposed in this paper. Several parameters are extracted from the functional attributes and quality feature of trust relationship, as well as requirements from the specific network context and the evaluators. Several distributed P2P trust models are analyzed quantitatively with extracted parameters modeled into a hierarchical model. The fuzzy inferring method is applied to the hierarchical modeling of parameters to fuse the evaluated values of the candidate trust models, and then the relative optimal one is selected based on the sorted overall quantitative values. Finally, analyses and simulation are performed. The results show that the proposed method is reasonable and effective compared with the previous algorithms.

Scenarios and innovative systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-11-01

The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

CERN Document Server

Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

2016-01-01

We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

Application of the RESRAD computer code to VAMP scenario S

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gnanapragasam, E.K.; Yu, C.

1997-03-01

The RESRAD computer code developed at Argonne National Laboratory was among 11 models from 11 countries participating in the international Scenario S validation of radiological assessment models with Chernobyl fallout data from southern Finland. The validation test was conducted by the Multiple Pathways Assessment Working Group of the Validation of Environmental Model Predictions (VAMP) program coordinated by the International Atomic Energy Agency. RESRAD was enhanced to provide an output of contaminant concentrations in environmental media and in food products to compare with measured data from southern Finland. Probability distributions for inputs that were judged to be most uncertain were obtained from the literature and from information provided in the scenario description prepared by the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety. The deterministic version of RESRAD was run repeatedly to generate probability distributions for the required predictions. These predictions were used later to verify the probabilistic RESRAD code. The RESRAD predictions of radionuclide concentrations are compared with measured concentrations in selected food products. The radiological doses predicted by RESRAD are also compared with those estimated by the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety

A working definition of scenario and a method of scenario construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.

1992-01-01

The event-tree method of scenario construction has been chosen for the Yucca Mountain performance assessment. Its applicability and suitability to the problem are discussed and compared with those of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) method. The event-tree method is appropriate for an incompletely characterized site, where there must be an evolving understanding, over time, of the processes at work, for a site that may require analysis of details in specific context, and when the scenario functions to guide site characterization. Anticipating the eventual requirement for using the NRC method, we show that the event-tree method can be translated to the NRC format after final scenario screening

Influence of specimen thickness on the fatigue behavior of notched steel plates subjected to laser shock peening

Science.gov (United States)

Granados-Alejo, V.; Rubio-González, C.; Vázquez-Jiménez, C. A.; Banderas, J. A.; Gómez-Rosas, G.

2018-05-01

The influence of specimen thickness on the fatigue crack initiation of 2205 duplex stainless steel notched specimens subjected to laser shock peening (LSP) was investigated. The purpose was to examine the effectiveness of LSP on flat components with different thicknesses. For the LSP treatment a Nd:YAG pulsed laser operating at 10 Hz with 1064 nm of wavelength was used; pulse density was 2500 pulses/cm2. The LSP setup was the waterjet arrangement without sample coating. Residual stress distribution as a function of depth was determined by the hole drilling method. Notched specimens 2, 3 and 4 mm thick were LSP treated on both faces and then fatigue loading was applied with R = 0.1. Experimental fatigue lives were compared with life predictions from finite element simulation. A good comparison of the predicted and experimental fatigue lives was observed. LSP finite element simulation helps in explaining the influence of thickness on fatigue lives in terms of equivalent plastic strain distribution variations associated with the change in thickness. It is demonstrated that specimen size effect is an important issue in applying LSP on real components. Reducing the specimen thickness, the fatigue life improvement induced by LSP is significantly increased. Fatigue life extension up to 300% is observed on thin specimens with LSP.

Triceps skin fold thickness as a measure of body fat in Nigerian

African Journals Online (AJOL)

owner

2012-11-26

Nov 26, 2012 ... and body fat distribution.2,3 Skin fold thickness measure- ments are a well ... different recognized areas for the measurement of SFT, ..... 'western children.' These .... Asia Pacific J Clin ... sity in children and young people:.

Learning Through Scenario Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Balarezo, Jose

level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

Scenario-based strategizing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

2017-01-01

For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

Relation between film thickness and surface doping of MoS2 based field effect transistors

Science.gov (United States)

Lockhart de la Rosa, César J.; Arutchelvan, Goutham; Leonhardt, Alessandra; Huyghebaert, Cedric; Radu, Iuliana; Heyns, Marc; De Gendt, Stefan

2018-05-01

Ultra-thin MoS2 film doping through surface functionalization with physically adsorbed species is of great interest due to its ability to dope the film without reduction in the carrier mobility. However, there is a need for understanding how the thickness of the MoS2 film is related to the induced surface doping for improved electrical performance. In this work, we report on the relation of MoS2 film thickness with the doping effect induced by the n-dopant adsorbate poly(vinyl-alcohol). Field effect transistors built using MoS2 films of different thicknesses were electrically characterized, and it was observed that the ION/OFF ratio after doping in thin films is more than four orders of magnitudes greater when compared with thick films. Additionally, a semi-classical model tuned with the experimental devices was used to understand the spatial distribution of charge in the channel and explain the observed behavior. From the simulation results, it was revealed that the two-dimensional carrier density induced by the adsorbate is distributed rather uniformly along the complete channel for thin films (<5.2 nm) contrary to what happens for thicker films.

Reducing lumber thickness variation using real-time statistical process control

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas M. Young; Brian H. Bond; Jan Wiedenbeck

2002-01-01

A technology feasibility study for reducing lumber thickness variation was conducted from April 2001 until March 2002 at two sawmills located in the southern U.S. A real-time statistical process control (SPC) system was developed that featured Wonderware human machine interface technology (HMI) with distributed real-time control charts for all sawing centers and...

40 Years of Shell Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-02-15

Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

[Effects of sampling plot number on tree species distribution prediction under climate change].

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Yu; He, Hong-Shi; Wu, Zhi-Wei; Li, Xiao-Na; Luo, Xu

2013-05-01

Based on the neutral landscapes under different degrees of landscape fragmentation, this paper studied the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale under climate change. The tree species distribution was predicted by the coupled modeling approach which linked an ecosystem process model with a forest landscape model, and three contingent scenarios and one reference scenario of sampling plot numbers were assumed. The differences between the three scenarios and the reference scenario under different degrees of landscape fragmentation were tested. The results indicated that the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution depended on the tree species life history attributes. For the generalist species, the prediction of their distribution at landscape scale needed more plots. Except for the extreme specialist, landscape fragmentation degree also affected the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction. With the increase of simulation period, the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale could be changed. For generalist species, more plots are needed for the long-term simulation.

Defining scenarios of future vectors of change in marine life and associated economic sectors

Science.gov (United States)

Groeneveld, Rolf A.; Bosello, Francesco; Butenschön, Momme; Elliott, Mike; Peck, Myron A.; Pinnegar, John K.

2018-02-01

Addressing the multitude of challenges in marine policy requires an integrated approach that considers the multitude of drivers, pressures, and interests, from several disciplinary angles. Scenarios are needed to harmonise the analyses of different components of the marine system, and to deal with the uncertainty and complexity of the societal and biogeophysical dynamics in the system. This study considers a set of socio-economic scenarios to (1) explore possible futures in relation to marine invasive species, outbreak forming species, and gradual changes in species distribution and productivity; and (2) harmonise the projection modelling performed within associated studies. The exercise demonstrates that developing interdisciplinary scenarios as developed in this study is particularly complicated due to (1) the wide variety in endogeneity or exogeneity of variables in the different analyses involved; (2) the dual role of policy decisions as variables in a scenario or decisions to be evaluated and compared to other decisions; and (3) the substantial difference in time scale between societal and physical drivers.

A negawatt scenario for 2005 - 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salomon, Thierry [Izuba Energies, Meze (France); Couturier, Christian [Solagro, Toulouse (France); Jedliczka, Marc [Hespul, Villeurbanne (France); Letz, Thomas [Asder, Chambery (France); Lebot, Benoit [United Nations Development Programme - Global Environment Facility Unit, New York (United States)

2005-07-01

The sad perspective of climate change combined with the foreseen depletion of fossil energy in the coming decades impose a radical change in the way we collect, transform, distribute, use and save energy in our modern economies. Over the past few years, many European Governments have made calls and announced plans to reduce by 60 to 80% their national Greenhouse Gas emissions by 2050. The present paper summarises the approach, the assumptions and the findings of a scenario performed by an multidisciplinary team for defining a sustainable energy path for a major European country. The scenario uniquely relies on three complementary steps: energy sufficiency, energy efficiency and renewable energy. The analysis clearly indicates the importance of engaging major energy conservation programmes now and in all sectors of the economy if we want to indeed influence greenhouse gas emissions in the medium and longer term. The paper describes and discusses the key policies that need to be put in place for each sector in the short term. The paper concludes on side benefits of renewed energy conservation efforts (like perspective on local employments) as well as the complementarities and the synergies of policies and measures between local, national and European levels.

Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

2008-01-01

Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

Numerical optimization of actuator trajectories for ITER hybrid scenario profile evolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dongen, J van; Hogeweij, G M D; Felici, F; Geelen, P; Maljaars, E

2014-01-01

Optimal actuator trajectories for an ITER hybrid scenario ramp-up are computed using a numerical optimization method. For both L-mode and H-mode scenarios, the time trajectory of plasma current, EC heating and current drive distribution is determined that minimizes a chosen cost function, while satisfying constraints. The cost function is formulated to reflect two desired properties of the plasma q profile at the end of the ramp-up. The first objective is to maximize the ITG turbulence threshold by maximizing the volume-averaged s/q ratio. The second objective is to achieve a stationary q profile by having a flat loop voltage profile. Actuator and physics-derived constraints are included, imposing limits on plasma current, ramp rates, internal inductance and q profile. This numerical method uses the fast control-oriented plasma profile evolution code RAPTOR, which is successfully benchmarked against more complete CRONOS simulations for L-mode and H-mode mode ITER hybrid scenarios. It is shown that the optimized trajectories computed using RAPTOR also result in an improved ramp-up scenario for CRONOS simulations using the same input trajectories. Furthermore, the optimal trajectories are shown to vary depending on the precise timing of the L–H transition. (paper)

Normal kidney size and renal cortical thickness of the Korean adults

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chung, Hee Kyung; Hahm, Chang Kok

1974-01-01

1. The kidney size and cortical thickness were measured from intravenous pyelograms of healthy Korean adults of 250 males and 250 females. 2. The measured size and cortical thickness of kidney were following figure (mm). 3. The size of kidney of male is a little larger than female both in vertical length and horizontal width. 4. The renal cortical thickness were not significant in differences between male and female, right and left, in each poles. 5. In the study of distribution of length differences between pairs of kidneys in our series, the length of right kidney is larger in 18.6%, and width in 27.2%. 6. Comparative study is carried out measuring the length of first lumbar vertebral bodies including 4 intervertebral spaces. 7. The site of kidney is larger in the group of greater length of vertebral height. 8. The renal cortical thickness have no significant differences in according to the differences of length of vertebral height, in each poles. 9. Comparing with the western authors, the kidney size of the Korean adult is not smaller than western

Scenarios for remote gas production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

2009-01-01

The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

Angular distributions of ions channeled in the Si crystals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petrovic, S.; Korica, S.; Kokkoris, M.; Neskovic, N.

2002-01-01

In this study we analyze the angular distributions of Ne 10+ ions channeled in the Si crystals. The ion energy is 60 MeV and the crystal thickness is varied from 286 to 3435 nm. This thickness range corresponds to the reduced crystal thickness range from 0.5 to 6, i.e. from the second to the twelfth rainbow cycle. The angular distributions were obtained via the numerical solution of the ion equations of motion and the computer simulation method. The analysis shows that the angular distribution has a periodic behavior. We also analyze the transmission patterns corresponding to the angular distributions. These patterns should be compared to the experimental patterns obtainable by a two-dimensional position sensitive detector. We demonstrate that, when the ion beam divergence is sufficiently large, i.e. much larger than the critical angle for channeling, the channeling star effect occurs in the transmission patterns

SKB/TVO ice age scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahlbom, K.; Aeikaes, T.; Ericsson, L.

1991-10-01

Ice ages have repeatedly occurred throughout geological history, and it is likely that they will also occur in the future. The report discusses the principal processes predicted to occur during future glaciations, and which are likely to be of importance for a repository. The report presents a synthesis of the results in a form of a scenario from two state-of-the-art reports, working meetings and a seminar. Based on the present status of knowledge the climate at Scandinavia will gradually become colder permitting the growth of an ice sheet at 5000 years in the mountainous area of Sweden. After a minor warmer period fully stadial conditions will occur around 20 000 years from now, and after interstadial with dry and cold climate again after 60000 years from now. During the latter glaciation ice thickness at Stockholm-Helsinki region is 2500 m. Interstadial conditions similar to the climate of northern Sweden/Finland will prevail after 75000 years from now. The main changes caused by ice sheet are the downwarping/uplift of the crust and changes in the sea level. In addition, changes in groundwater head and flux are foreseen. As a response from climatic changes tundra and permafrost will appear

Crystallite size distribution of clay minerals from selected Serbian clay deposits

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simić Vladimir

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The BWA (Bertaut-Warren-Averbach technique for the measurement of the mean crystallite thickness and thickness distributions of phyllosilicates was applied to a set of kaolin and bentonite minerals. Six samples of kaolinitic clays, one sample of halloysite, and five bentonite samples from selected Serbian deposits were analyzed. These clays are of sedimentary volcano-sedimentary (diagenetic, and hydrothermal origin. Two different types of shape of thickness distribution were found - lognormal, typical for bentonite and halloysite, and polymodal, typical for kaolinite. The mean crystallite thickness (T BWA seams to be influenced by the genetic type of the clay sample.

Taking the distributed nature of cooperative work seriously

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmidt, Kjeld; Simone, Carla

1998-01-01

For CSCW facilities to be effective and viable, the inher-ently distributed nature of cooperative work must matched by a radically distributed environment. On the basis of a scenario derived from field studies, the paper describes a CSCW environment which supports the distributed con...

XRD measurement of mean crystallite thickness of illite and illite/smectite: Reappraisal of the Kubler index and the Scherrer equation

Science.gov (United States)

Drits, Victor A.; Środoń, Jan; Eberl, D.D.

1997-01-01

The standard form of the Scherrer equation, which has been used to calculate the mean thickness of the coherent scattering domain (CSD) of illite crystals from X-ray diffraction (XRD) full width data at half maximum (FWHM) intensity, employs a constant, Ksh, of 0.89. Use of this constant is unjustified, even if swelling has no effect on peak broadening, because this constant is valid only if all CSDs have a single thickness. For different thickness distributions, the Scherrer “constant” has very different values.Analysis of fundamental particle thickness data (transmission electron microscopy, TEM) for samples of authigenic illite and illite/smectite from diagenetically altered pyroclastics and filamentous illites from sandstones reveals a unique family of lognormal thickness distributions for these clays. Experimental relations between the distributions' lognormal parameters and mean thicknesses are established. These relations then are used to calculate the mean thickness of CSDs for illitic samples from XRD FWHM, or from integral XRD peak widths (integrated intensity/maximum intensity).For mixed-layer illite/smectite, the measured thickness of the CSD corresponds to the mean thickness of the mixed-layer crystal. Using this measurement, the mean thickness of the fundamental particles that compose the mixed-layer crystals can be calculated after XRD determination of percent smectitic interlayers. The effect of mixed layering (swelling) on XRD peak width for these samples is eliminated by using the 003 reflection for glycolated samples, and the 001, 002 or 003 reflection for dehydrated, K-saturated samples. If this technique is applied to the 001 reflection of air-dried samples (Kubler index measurement), mean CSD thicknesses are underestimated due to the mixed-layering effect.The technique was calibrated using NEW MOD©-simulated XRD profiles of illite, and then tested on well-characterized illite and illite/smectite samples. The XRD measurements are in good

2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-07-16

This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

2006-12-01

The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

Possibilities and Limitations of CFD Simulation for Flashing Flow Scenarios in Nuclear Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yixiang Liao

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The flashing phenomenon is relevant to nuclear safety analysis, for example by a loss of coolant accident and safety release scenarios. It has been studied intensively by means of experiments and simulations with system codes, but computational fluid dynamics (CFD simulation is still at the embryonic stage. Rapid increasing computer speed makes it possible to apply the CFD technology in such complex flow situations. Nevertheless, a thorough evaluation on the limitations and restrictions is still missing, which is however indispensable for reliable application, as well as further development. In the present work, the commonly-used two-fluid model with different mono-disperse assumptions is used to simulate various flashing scenarios. With the help of available experimental data, the results are evaluated, and the limitations are discussed. A poly-disperse method is found necessary for a reliable prediction of mean bubble size and phase distribution. The first attempts to trace the evolution of the bubble size distribution by means of poly-disperse simulations are made.

Effect of wall thickness and helium cooling channels on duct magnetohydrodynamic flows

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Qingyun; Feng, Jingchao; Chen, Hongli

2016-01-01

Highlights: • MHD flows in ducts of different wall thickness compared with wall uniform. • Study of velocity, pressure distribution in ducts MHD flows with single pass of helium cooling channels. • Comparison of three types of dual helium cooling channels and acquisition of an option for minimum pressure drop. • A single short duct MHD flow in blanket without FCI has been simulated for pressure gradient analysis. - Abstract: The concept of dual coolant liquid metal (LM) blanket has been proposed in different countries to demonstrate the technical feasibility of DEMO reactor. In the system, helium gas and PbLi eutectic, separated by structure grid, are used to cool main structure materials and to be self-cooled, respectively. The non-uniform wall thickness of structure materials gives rise to wall non-homogeneous conductance ratio. It will lead to electric current distribution changes, resulting in significant changes in the velocity distribution and pressure drop of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) flows. In order to investigate the effect of helium channels on MHD flows, different methods of numerical simulations cases are carried out including the cases of different wall thicknesses, single pass of helium cooling channels, and three types of dual helium cooling channels. The results showed that helium tubes are able to affect the velocity distribution in the boundary layer by forming wave sharp which transfers from Hartmann boundary layer to the core area. In addition, the potential profile and pressure drop in the cases have been compared to these in the case of walls without cooling channel, and the pressure gradient of a simplified single short duct MHD flow in blanket shows small waver along the central axis in the helium channel position.

Effect of wall thickness and helium cooling channels on duct magnetohydrodynamic flows

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

He, Qingyun; Feng, Jingchao; Chen, Hongli, E-mail: hlchen1@ustc.edu.cn

2016-02-15

Highlights: • MHD flows in ducts of different wall thickness compared with wall uniform. • Study of velocity, pressure distribution in ducts MHD flows with single pass of helium cooling channels. • Comparison of three types of dual helium cooling channels and acquisition of an option for minimum pressure drop. • A single short duct MHD flow in blanket without FCI has been simulated for pressure gradient analysis. - Abstract: The concept of dual coolant liquid metal (LM) blanket has been proposed in different countries to demonstrate the technical feasibility of DEMO reactor. In the system, helium gas and PbLi eutectic, separated by structure grid, are used to cool main structure materials and to be self-cooled, respectively. The non-uniform wall thickness of structure materials gives rise to wall non-homogeneous conductance ratio. It will lead to electric current distribution changes, resulting in significant changes in the velocity distribution and pressure drop of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) flows. In order to investigate the effect of helium channels on MHD flows, different methods of numerical simulations cases are carried out including the cases of different wall thicknesses, single pass of helium cooling channels, and three types of dual helium cooling channels. The results showed that helium tubes are able to affect the velocity distribution in the boundary layer by forming wave sharp which transfers from Hartmann boundary layer to the core area. In addition, the potential profile and pressure drop in the cases have been compared to these in the case of walls without cooling channel, and the pressure gradient of a simplified single short duct MHD flow in blanket shows small waver along the central axis in the helium channel position.

Exposure scenarios for workers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

2007-01-01

The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

Material and Thickness Grading for Aeroelastic Tailoring of the Common Research Model Wing Box

Science.gov (United States)

Stanford, Bret K.; Jutte, Christine V.

2014-01-01

This work quantifies the potential aeroelastic benefits of tailoring a full-scale wing box structure using tailored thickness distributions, material distributions, or both simultaneously. These tailoring schemes are considered for the wing skins, the spars, and the ribs. Material grading utilizes a spatially-continuous blend of two metals: Al and Al+SiC. Thicknesses and material fraction variables are specified at the 4 corners of the wing box, and a bilinear interpolation is used to compute these parameters for the interior of the planform. Pareto fronts detailing the conflict between static aeroelastic stresses and dynamic flutter boundaries are computed with a genetic algorithm. In some cases, a true material grading is found to be superior to a single-material structure.

Static and dynamic through thickness lamina properties of thick laminates

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lahuerta, F.; Nijssen, R.P.L.; Van der Meer, F.P.; Sluys, L.J.

2015-01-01

Thick laminates are increasingly present in large composites structures such as wind turbine blades. Different factors are suspected to be involved in the decreased static and dynamic performance of thick laminates. These include the effect of self-heating, the scaling effect, and the manufacturing

Climate Change Scenarios in the Yucatan Peninsula to the year 2020

Science.gov (United States)

Orellana, R.; Espadas, C.; Conde, C.; Gay, C.

2010-03-01

introduced in a Geographical Information System (GIS), represented cartographically and were corroborated geostatistically. The results are shown through a collection of maps that constitutes the possible changes of the different elements of the climate under ten possible climate change scenarios. One main result that we obtained was that for the horizon 2020, there is great uncertainty on the temperature increments and on the changes of the projected precipitation amounts. Even with that uncertainty, extreme climatic scenarios were obtained. For example, the scenario generated with the Hadley model, and with the emission scenario A1FI, projects that the distribution of climates will radically change in the peninsula. The region with climates BSo w, which is the driest of the semi-arid climates, will extend from Sisal to the east of Río Lagartos, in the area of San Felipe. Also, this scenario projects that the Awo w" warm climate, will be distributed in the occidental middle portion of the peninsula, from Mocochá and Mérida in the north, and to the boarder zone of Campeche and Guatemala, in the south. The Ax’(wo) w" climate will be present in a very extended area, from the east of the state of Yucatán, until the east of Campeche and the west of Quintana Roo. The cartographic representation of the ten possible scenarios will allow us to contrast the possible climate change scenarios, and could support the localization of the most vulnerable areas, and to determine also what kind of adaptation and mitigation measures should start to be established i for regions and sectors that are very relevant in the peninsula, such as rainfed agriculture, apiculture (beekeeping), achiote production, and eco-tourism, for example.

Wealth distribution across communities of adaptive financial agents

Science.gov (United States)

DeLellis, Pietro; Garofalo, Franco; Lo Iudice, Francesco; Napoletano, Elena

2015-08-01

This paper studies the trading volumes and wealth distribution of a novel agent-based model of an artificial financial market. In this model, heterogeneous agents, behaving according to the Von Neumann and Morgenstern utility theory, may mutually interact. A Tobin-like tax (TT) on successful investments and a flat tax are compared to assess the effects on the agents’ wealth distribution. We carry out extensive numerical simulations in two alternative scenarios: (i) a reference scenario, where the agents keep their utility function fixed, and (ii) a focal scenario, where the agents are adaptive and self-organize in communities, emulating their neighbours by updating their own utility function. Specifically, the interactions among the agents are modelled through a directed scale-free network to account for the presence of community leaders, and the herding-like effect is tested against the reference scenario. We observe that our model is capable of replicating the benefits and drawbacks of the two taxation systems and that the interactions among the agents strongly affect the wealth distribution across the communities. Remarkably, the communities benefit from the presence of leaders with successful trading strategies, and are more likely to increase their average wealth. Moreover, this emulation mechanism mitigates the decrease in trading volumes, which is a typical drawback of TTs.

Influence of stabilizer thickness on over-current test of YBCO-coated conductors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwon, N Y; Kim, H S; Kim, K L; Lee, H G; Yim, S W; Kim, H-R; Hyun, O-B; Kim, H M

2009-01-01

The increased use of distributed power generation has led to increasingly high fault current levels. A superconducting fault current limiter (SFCL) is a potential solution to prevent the problem of short-circuit currents. YBCO-coated conductors (CCs) are one of the most promising superconducting materials for SFCLs. Most YBCO CCs have stabilizers, which play a significant role in limiting the fault current in the SFCL. Therefore, the selection of the appropriate material and the thickness of the stabilizer of the CC used for the SFCL may affect its quench/recovery characteristics. In this paper, the quench/recovery characteristics of YBCO CC tapes having stabilizers with various thicknesses were investigated. The quench/recovery test results showed that, as the thickness of the stabilizer decreased, both the final approach temperature and the recovery time decreased.

Designing Sustainable Production and Distribution Scenarios for the Beef and Pork Supply Chains in Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giulia Dondè

2016-08-01

The core improvements that can be extracted from the scenarios are: increased chain collaboration, information sharing in the chain, and governmental involvement in the Brazilian beef and pork supply chains. A major value of the paper lays in the three-phase methodology set-up. This paper will also contribute to the debate on sustainable improvements feasible in these Brazilian food chains.

The impact of selected sea level rise scenarios in the vicinity of Cochin harbour, India

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

DineshKumar, P.K.

reconfiguration in response to different sea level rise scenarios, the method of empirical distribution of new shorelines using trend lines which accounts for the inherent variability in shoreline response based on differing coastal processes is employed...

Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

2002-01-01

This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

Agent-based reactive power management of power distribution networks with distributed energy generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahman, M.S.; Mahmud, M.A.; Oo, A.M.T.; Pota, H.R.; Hossain, M.J.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A coordinated multi-agent system is proposed for reactive power management. • A linear quadratic regulator with a proportional integral controller is designed. • Proposed multi-agent scheme provides accurate estimation and control of the system. • Voltage stability is improved with proper power management for different scenarios. • Results obtained from the proposed scheme is compared to the traditional approach. - Abstract: In this paper, a new agent-based distributed reactive power management scheme is proposed to improve the voltage stability of energy distribution systems with distributed generation units. Three types of agents – distribution system agent, estimator agent, and control agent are developed within the multi-agent framework. The agents simultaneously coordinated their activities through the online information and energy flow. The overall achievement of the proposed scheme depends on the coordination between two tasks – (i) estimation of reactive power using voltage variation formula and (ii) necessary control actions to provide the estimated reactive power to the distribution networks through the distributed static synchronous compensators. A linear quadratic regulator with a proportional integrator is designed for the control agent in order to control the reactive component of the current and the DC voltage of the compensators. The performance of the proposed scheme is tested on a 10-bus power distribution network under various scenarios. The effectiveness is validated by comparing the proposed approach to the conventional proportional integral control approach. It is found that, the agent-based scheme provides excellent robust performance under various operating conditions of the power distribution network.

Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

2009-01-01

Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

Effect of a high-end CO₂-emission scenario on hydrology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karlsson, Ida Bjørnholt; Sonnenborg, Torben Obel; Seaby, Lauren Paige

2015-01-01

and the less extreme RCP4.5 emission scenario are evaluated for the future period 2071−2099. The downscaled climate variables are applied to a fully distributed, physically based, coupled surface−subsurface hydrological model based on the MIKE SHE model code. The impacts on soil moisture dynamics...

Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

2003-01-01

The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

Energy scenarios for New Zealand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

1977-10-15

Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan M Requena-Mullor

Full Text Available As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the

Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

2011-01-01

A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

2011-07-15

There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

Estimating the time and temperature relationship for causation of deep-partial thickness skin burns.

Science.gov (United States)

Abraham, John P; Plourde, Brian; Vallez, Lauren; Stark, John; Diller, Kenneth R

2015-12-01

The objective of this study is to develop and present a simple procedure for evaluating the temperature and exposure-time conditions that lead to causation of a deep-partial thickness burn and the effect that the immediate post-burn thermal environment can have on the process. A computational model has been designed and applied to predict the time required for skin burns to reach a deep-partial thickness level of injury. The model includes multiple tissue layers including the epidermis, dermis, hypodermis, and subcutaneous tissue. Simulated exposure temperatures ranged from 62.8 to 87.8°C (145-190°F). Two scenarios were investigated. The first and worst case scenario was a direct exposure to water (characterized by a large convection coefficient) with the clothing left on the skin following the exposure. A second case consisted of a scald insult followed immediately by the skin being washed with cool water (20°C). For both cases, an Arrhenius injury model was applied whereby the extent and depth of injury were calculated and compared for the different post-burn treatments. In addition, injury values were compared with experiment data from the literature to assess verification of the numerical methodology. It was found that the clinical observations of injury extent agreed with the calculated values. Furthermore, inundation with cool water decreased skin temperatures more quickly than the clothing insulating case and led to a modest decrease in the burn extent. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Shifts in the ecological niche of Lutzomyia peruensis under climate change scenarios in Peru.

Science.gov (United States)

Moo-Llanes, D A; Arque-Chunga, W; Carmona-Castro, O; Yañez-Arenas, C; Yañez-Trujillano, H H; Cheverría-Pacheco, L; Baak-Baak, C M; Cáceres, A G

2017-06-01

The Peruvian Andes presents a climate suitable for many species of sandfly that are known vectors of leishmaniasis or bartonellosis, including Lutzomyia peruensis (Diptera: Psychodidae), among others. In the present study, occurrences data for Lu. peruensis were compiled from several items in the scientific literature from Peru published between 1927 and 2015. Based on these data, ecological niche models were constructed to predict spatial distributions using three algorithms [Support vector machine (SVM), the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt)]. In addition, the environmental requirements of Lu. peruensis and three niche characteristics were modelled in the context of future climate change scenarios: (a) potential changes in niche breadth; (b) shifts in the direction and magnitude of niche centroids, and (c) shifts in elevation range. The model identified areas that included environments suitable for Lu. peruensis in most regions of Peru (45.77%) and an average altitude of 3289 m a.s.l. Under climate change scenarios, a decrease in the distribution areas of Lu. peruensis was observed for all representative concentration pathways. However, the centroid of the species' ecological niche showed a northwest direction in all climate change scenarios. The information generated in this study may help health authorities responsible for the supervision of strategies to control leishmaniasis to coordinate, plan and implement appropriate strategies for each area of risk, taking into account the geographic distribution and potential dispersal of Lu. peruensis. © 2017 The Royal Entomological Society.

Angular distributions of absorbed dose of Bremsstrahlung and secondary electrons induced by 18-, 28- and 38-MeV electron beams in thick targets.

Science.gov (United States)

Takada, Masashi; Kosako, Kazuaki; Oishi, Koji; Nakamura, Takashi; Sato, Kouichi; Kamiyama, Takashi; Kiyanagi, Yoshiaki

2013-03-01

Angular distributions of absorbed dose of Bremsstrahlung photons and secondary electrons at a wide range of emission angles from 0 to 135°, were experimentally obtained using an ion chamber with a 0.6 cm(3) air volume covered with or without a build-up cap. The Bremsstrahlung photons and electrons were produced by 18-, 28- and 38-MeV electron beams bombarding tungsten, copper, aluminium and carbon targets. The absorbed doses were also calculated from simulated photon and electron energy spectra by multiplying simulated response functions of the ion chambers, simulated with the MCNPX code. Calculated-to-experimental (C/E) dose ratios obtained are from 0.70 to 1.57 for high-Z targets of W and Cu, from 15 to 135° and the C/E range from 0.6 to 1.4 at 0°; however, the values of C/E for low-Z targets of Al and C are from 0.5 to 1.8 from 0 to 135°. Angular distributions at the forward angles decrease with increasing angles; on the other hand, the angular distributions at the backward angles depend on the target species. The dependences of absorbed doses on electron energy and target thickness were compared between the measured and simulated results. The attenuation profiles of absorbed doses of Bremsstrahlung beams at 0, 30 and 135° were also measured.

2017 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Richards, James [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Das, Paritosh [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States)

2017-10-01

This report summarizes the results of 26 forward-looking “standard scenarios” of the U.S. power sector simulated by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) using the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) and Distributed Generation (dGen) capacity expansion models. The annual Standard Scenarios, which are now in their third year, have been designed to capture a range of possible power system futures considering a variety of factors that impact power sector evolution.

Hadron component in families observed with the Mt. Fuji thick type emulsion chamber

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konishi, Eiichi

1978-01-01

Analysis of hadron component was made on the families detected with the thick type emulsion chamber exposed at Mt. Fuji. The thickness of the emulsion chamber was 70 c.u of Pb. The collecting power was 17 m 2 year. The character of hadrons in the families and their correlations with accompanying gamma-rays are shown. The energy spectra of ten families with number of gamma-ray not less than 5, gamma energy sum not less than 20 TeV and number of Pb jet not less than 5 minimum energy = 2 TeV, and their lateral distribution were investigated. These thick type emulsion chamber data are useful for the analysis of gamma-ray families observed by the thin type emulsion chamber. (Yoshimori, M.)

Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Lene

2004-01-01

design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

Mars base buildup scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blacic, J.D.

1985-01-01

Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

Through thickness property variations in a thick plate AA7050 friction stir welded joint

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Canaday, Clinton T.; Moore, Matthew A.; Tang, Wei; Reynolds, A.P.

2013-01-01

In this study, moderately thick (32 mm) AA7050 plates were joined by friction stir welding (FSW). Various methods were used to characterize the welded joints, including nugget grain size measurements at different locations through the thickness, micro-hardness indentation through nugget, thermo-mechanically affected zone (TMAZ), and heat affected zone (HAZ) at different cross section heights, and residual stress measurement using the cut compliance method with full thickness and partial thickness specimens. All testing results are consistent with the presence of a strong gradient in peak temperature through the plate thickness during FSW.

Epicardial Adipose Tissue Thickness in Patients With Subclinical Hypothyroidism and the Relationship Thereof With Visceral Adipose Tissue Thickness.

Science.gov (United States)

Arpaci, Dilek; Gurkan Tocoglu, Aysel; Yilmaz, Sabiye; Korkmaz, Sumeyye; Ergenc, Hasan; Gunduz, Huseyin; Keser, Nurgul; Tamer, Ali

2016-03-01

Subclinical hypothyroidism (SH) is associated with cardiovascular metabolic syndromes, especially dislipidemia and abdominal obesity. Visceral abdominal adipose tissue (VAAT) and epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) have the same ontogenic origin and produce many proinflammatory and proatherogenic cytokines. We evaluated EAT and VAAT thickness in patients with SH. Forty-one patients with SH and 35 controls were included in the study. Demographical and anthropometric features of both patients and controls were recorded. Thyroid and metabolic parameters were measured. EAT was measured using 2D-transthoracic echocardiography. The age and gender distributions were similar in the two groups (P = 0.998 and P = 0.121, respectively). Body mass index (BMI), fat mass, waist circumference (WC), hip circumference (HC), the WC/HC ratio, and the thicknesses of VAAT and abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue were higher in the case group than the control group (all P values 0.05). We found no difference between the two groups in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) level (P = 0.780), but the levels of LDL-C and TG differed significantly (P = 0.002 and P = 0.026, respectively). The serum TSH level was higher and the FT4 level was lower in the case than the control group (both P values <0.01). Increased abdominal adipose tissue thickness in patients with SH is associated with atherosclerosis. To detemine the risk of atherosclerosis in such patients, EAT measurements are valuable; such assessment is simple to perform.

Dynamics of lava flow - Thickness growth characteristics of steady two-dimensional flow

Science.gov (United States)

Park, S.; Iversen, J. D.

1984-01-01

The thickness growth characteristics of flowing lava are investigated using a heat balance model and a two-dimensional model for flow of a Bingham plastic fluid down an inclined plane. It is found that yield strength plays a crucial role in the thickening of a lava flow of given flow rate. To illustrate this point, downstream thickness profiles and yield strength distributions were calculated for flows with mass flow rates of 10,000 and 100,000 kg/m-sec. Higher flow rates led to slow cooling rates which resulted in slow rate of increase of yield strength and thus greater flow lengths.

Determination of the lateral size and thickness of solution-processed graphene flakes

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Li-Shang; Bin-Tay, Wei; Aslam, Zabeada; Westwood, A. V. K.; Brydson, R.

2017-09-01

We present a method to determine the lateral size distribution of solution…processed graphene via direct image analysis techniques. Initially transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and optical microscopy (OM) were correlated and used to provide a reliable benchmark. A rapid, automated OM method was then developed to obtain the distribution from thousands of flakes, avoiding statistical uncertainties and providing high accuracy. Dynamic light scattering (DLS) was further employed to develop an in-situ method to derive the number particle size distribution (PSD) for a dispersion, with a deviation lower than 22% in the sub-micron regime. Methods for determining flake thickness are also discussed.

Sea-ice thickness from field measurements in the northwestern Barents Sea

Science.gov (United States)

King, Jennifer; Spreen, Gunnar; Gerland, Sebastian; Haas, Christian; Hendricks, Stefan; Kaleschke, Lars; Wang, Caixin

2017-02-01

The Barents Sea is one of the fastest changing regions of the Arctic, and has experienced the strongest decline in winter-time sea-ice area in the Arctic, at -23±4% decade-1. Sea-ice thickness in the Barents Sea is not well studied. We present two previously unpublished helicopter-borne electromagnetic (HEM) ice thickness measurements from the northwestern Barents Sea acquired in March 2003 and 2014. The HEM data are compared to ice thickness calculated from ice draft measured by ULS deployed between 1994 and 1996. These data show that ice thickness varies greatly from year to year; influenced by the thermodynamic and dynamic processes that govern local formation vs long-range advection. In a year with a large inflow of sea-ice from the Arctic Basin, the Barents Sea ice cover is dominated by thick multiyear ice; as was the case in 2003 and 1995. In a year with an ice cover that was mainly grown in situ, the ice will be thin and mechanically unstable; as was the case in 2014. The HEM data allow us to explore the spatial and temporal variability in ice thickness. In 2003 the dominant ice class was more than 2 years old; and modal sea-ice thickness varied regionally from 0.6 to 1.4 m, with the thinner ice being either first-year ice, or multiyear ice which had come into contact with warm Atlantic water. In 2014 the ice cover was predominantly locally grown ice less than 1 month old (regional modes of 0.5-0.8 m). These two situations represent two extremes of a range of possible ice thickness distributions that can present very different conditions for shipping traffic; or have a different impact on heat transport from ocean to atmosphere.

Further morphological evidence on South African earliest Homo lower postcanine dentition: Enamel thickness and enamel dentine junction.

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Lei; Dumoncel, Jean; de Beer, Frikkie; Hoffman, Jakobus; Thackeray, John Francis; Duployer, Benjamin; Tenailleau, Christophe; Braga, José

2016-07-01

The appearance of the earliest members of the genus Homo in South Africa represents a key event in human evolution. Although enamel thickness and enamel dentine junction (EDJ) morphology preserve important information about hominin systematics and dietary adaptation, these features have not been sufficiently studied with regard to early Homo. We used micro-CT to compare enamel thickness and EDJ morphology among the mandibular postcanine dentitions of South African early hominins (N = 30) and extant Homo sapiens (N = 26), with special reference to early members of the genus Homo. We found that South African early Homo shows a similar enamel thickness distribution pattern to modern humans, although three-dimensional average and relative enamel thicknesses do not distinguish australopiths, early Homo, and modern humans particularly well. Based on enamel thickness distributions, our study suggests that a dietary shift occurred between australopiths and the origin of the Homo lineage. We also observed that South African early Homo postcanine EDJ combined primitive traits seen in australopith molars with derived features observed in modern human premolars. Our results confirm that some dental morphological patterns in later Homo actually occurred early in the Homo lineage, and highlight the taxonomic value of premolar EDJ morphology in hominin species. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

From scenarios to components

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fahland, D.

2010-01-01

Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

Non-contact radiation thickness gauge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsujii, T.; Okino, T.

1983-01-01

A noncontact thickness gauge system for measuring the thickness of a material comprising a source of radiation, a detector for detecting the amount of radiation transmitted through the material which is a function of the absorptance and thickness of the material, a memory for storing the output signals of the detector and curve-defining parameters for a plurality of quadratic calibration curves which correspond to respective thickness ranges, and a processor for processing the signals and curve defining parameters to determine the thickness of the material. Measurements are made after precalibration to obtain calibration curves and these are stored in the memory, providing signals representative of a nominal thickness and an alloy compensation coefficient for the material. The calibration curve corresponding to a particular thickness range is selected and the curve compensated for drift; the material is inserted into the radiation path and the detector output signal processed with the compensated calibration curve to determine the thickness of the material. (author)

Scenario Modeling of Thermal Influence from Forest Fire Front on a Coniferous Tree Trunk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baranovskiy Nikolay V.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Scenario research results of heat transfer and tissue damage in three-layered tree trunk influenced by heat flux from forest fire are presented. The problem is solved in two-dimensional statement in polar coordinates. The typical range of influence parameters (heat flux from forest fire front, trunk radius, coniferous species, air temperature, duration of exposure and distance from fire line is considered. Temperature distributions in different moments of time are obtained. Condition of tree damage by forest fire influence is under consideration in this research. Information summarized using tables with scenario and fire consequences results.

Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Contaldi, Mario

2005-01-01

This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez Meyer, Enrique; Sánchez-Velásquez, Lázaro R.

2016-01-01

Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata) can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13). The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14). Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species. PMID:27732622

Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike.

Science.gov (United States)

Estrada-Contreras, Israel; Equihua, Miguel; Laborde, Javier; Martínez Meyer, Enrique; Sánchez-Velásquez, Lázaro R

2016-01-01

Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata) can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13). The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14). Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species.

Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Israel Estrada-Contreras

Full Text Available Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13. The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14. Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species.

Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

2002-03-01

The China Energy Technology Program (CETP) used both optimizing and simulation energy- economic-environmental (E3) models to assess tradeoffs in the electricity-generation sector for a range of fuel, transport, generation, and distribution options. The CETP is composed of a range of technical tasks or activities, including Energy Economics Modeling (EEM, optimizations), Electric Sector Simulation (ESS, simulations), Life Cycle Analyses (LCA, externalization) of energy systems, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA, integration). The scope of CETP is limited to one province (Shandong), to one economic sector (electricity), and to one energy sector (electricity). This document describes the methods, approaches, limitations, sample results, and future/needed work for the EEM ( optimization-based modeling) task that supports the overall goal of CETP. An important tool used by the EEM task is based on a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that considers 17 electricity-generation technologies utilizing 14 fuel forms (type, composition, source) in a 7-region transportation model of China's electricity demand and supply system over the period 2000-2030; Shandong is one of the seven regions modeled. The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) is used to examine a set of energy-environment-economy E3-driven scenarios to quantify related policy implications. The development of electricity production mixes that are optimized under realistically E3 constraints is determined through regional demands for electricity that respond to exogenous assumptions on income (GDP) and electricity prices through respective time-dependent elasticities. Constraints are applied to fuel prices, transportation limits, resource availability, introduction (penetration) rates of specific technology, and (where applicable) to local, regional, and countrywide emission rates of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Importantly, future inter- regional energy flows are optimized with

The Thickness and Volume of Young Basalts Within Mare Imbrium

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yuan; Li, Chunlai; Ren, Xin; Liu, Jianjun; Wu, Yunzhao; Lu, Yu; Cai, Wei; Zhang, Xunyu

2018-02-01

Basaltic volcanism is one of the most important geologic processes of the Moon. Research on the thickness and volume of late-stage basalts of Mare Imbrium helps better understand the source of lunar volcanism and eruption styles. Based on whether apparent flow fronts exist or not, the late-stage basalts within Mare Imbrium were divided into two groups, namely, Upper Eratosthenian basalts (UEm) and Lower Eratosthenian basalts (LEm). Employing the topographic profile analysis method for UEm and the crater excavation technique for LEm, we studied the thickness and distribution of Eratosthenian basalts in Mare Imbrium. For the UEm units, their thicknesses were estimated to be 16-34 (±2) m with several layers of individual lava ( 8-13 m) inside. The estimated thickness of LEm units was 14-45(±1) m, with a trend of reducing thickness from north to south. The measured thickness of late-stage basalts around the Chang'E-3 landing site ( 37 ± 1 m) was quite close to the results acquired by the lunar penetrating radar carried on board the Yutu Rover ( 35 m). The total volume of the late-stage basalts in Mare Imbrium was calculated to be 8,671 (±320) km3, which is 4 times lower than that of Schaber's estimation ( 4 × 104 km3). Our results indicate that the actual volume is much lower than previous estimates of the final stage of the late basaltic eruption of Mare Imbrium. Together, the area flux and transport distance of the lava flows gradually decreased with time. These results suggest that late-stage volcanic evolution of the Moon might be revised.

Cognitive—Motor Interference in an Ecologically Valid Street Crossing Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christin Janouch

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Laboratory-based research revealed that gait involves higher cognitive processes, leading to performance impairments when executed with a concurrent loading task. Deficits are especially pronounced in older adults. Theoretical approaches like the multiple resource model highlight the role of task similarity and associated attention distribution problems. It has been shown that in cases where these distribution problems are perceived relevant to participant's risk of falls, older adults prioritize gait and posture over the concurrent loading task. Here we investigate whether findings on task similarity and task prioritization can be transferred to an ecologically valid scenario. Sixty-three younger adults (20–30 years of age and 61 older adults (65–75 years of age participated in a virtual street crossing simulation. The participants' task was to identify suitable gaps that would allow them to cross a simulated two way street safely. Therefore, participants walked on a manual treadmill that transferred their forward motion to forward displacements in a virtual city. The task was presented as a single task (crossing only and as a multitask. In the multitask condition participants were asked, among others, to type in three digit numbers that were presented either visually or auditorily. We found that for both age groups, street crossing as well as typing performance suffered under multitasking conditions. Impairments were especially pronounced for older adults (e.g., longer crossing initiation phase, more missed opportunities. However, younger and older adults did not differ in the speed and success rate of crossing. Further, deficits were stronger in the visual compared to the auditory task modality for most parameters. Our findings conform to earlier studies that found an age-related decline in multitasking performance in less realistic scenarios. However, task similarity effects were inconsistent and question the validity of the multiple

Ground-Motion Simulations of Scenario Earthquakes on the Hayward Fault

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aagaard, B; Graves, R; Larsen, S; Ma, S; Rodgers, A; Ponce, D; Schwartz, D; Simpson, R; Graymer, R

2009-03-09

We compute ground motions in the San Francisco Bay area for 35 Mw 6.7-7.2 scenario earthquake ruptures involving the Hayward fault. The modeled scenarios vary in rupture length, hypocenter, slip distribution, rupture speed, and rise time. This collaborative effort involves five modeling groups, using different wave propagation codes and domains of various sizes and resolutions, computing long-period (T > 1-2 s) or broadband (T > 0.1 s) synthetic ground motions for overlapping subsets of the suite of scenarios. The simulations incorporate 3-D geologic structure and illustrate the dramatic increase in intensity of shaking for Mw 7.05 ruptures of the entire Hayward fault compared with Mw 6.76 ruptures of the southern two-thirds of the fault. The area subjected to shaking stronger than MMI VII increases from about 10% of the San Francisco Bay urban area in the Mw 6.76 events to more than 40% of the urban area for the Mw 7.05 events. Similarly, combined rupture of the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults in a Mw 7.2 event extends shaking stronger than MMI VII to nearly 50% of the urban area. For a given rupture length, the synthetic ground motions exhibit the greatest sensitivity to the slip distribution and location inside or near the edge of sedimentary basins. The hypocenter also exerts a strong influence on the amplitude of the shaking due to rupture directivity. The synthetic waveforms exhibit a weaker sensitivity to the rupture speed and are relatively insensitive to the rise time. The ground motions from the simulations are generally consistent with Next Generation Attenuation ground-motion prediction models but contain long-period effects, such as rupture directivity and amplification in shallow sedimentary basins that are not fully captured by the ground-motion prediction models.

Epicardial fat thickness: distribution and association with diabetes mellitus, hypertension and the metabolic syndrome in the ELSA-Brasil study.

Science.gov (United States)

Graeff, Daniela Bertol; Foppa, Murilo; Pires, Julio Cesar Gall; Vigo, Alvaro; Schmidt, Maria Ines; Lotufo, Paulo Andrade; Mill, Jose Geraldo; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow

2016-04-01

Epicardial fat thickness (EFT) has emerged as a marker of cardiometabolic risk, but its clinical use warrants proper knowledge of its distribution and associations in populations. We aimed to describe the distribution of EFT, its demographic correlates and independent associations with diabetes, hypertension and metabolic syndrome (MS) in free-living Brazilian adults. From the baseline echocardiography of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil)-a cohort study of civil servants aged 35-74 years-EFT was measured from a randomly selected sample of 998 participants as the mean of two paraesternal windows obtained at end systole (EFTsyst) and end diastole (EFTdiast). From the 421 individuals free of diabetes, hypertension and MS, we defined EFT reference values and the EFTsyst 75th percentile cut-off. Median EFTsyst was 1.5 (IQR 0-2.6) mm; a large proportion (84 %) had EFTdiast = 0. EFT was higher in women and lower in blacks, and increased with age and BMI. Although EFT was higher in those with diabetes, hypertension, and MS, EFT associations were reduced when adjusted for age, sex and ethnicity, and were non-significant after adjusting for obesity measures. In conclusion, the amount of EFT in this large multiethnic population is smaller than reported in other populations. EFT reference values varied across demographic and clinical variables, EFT associations with cardiometabolic variables being largely explained by age, sex, ethnicity and central obesity. Although EFT can help identify individuals at increased cardiometabolic risk, it will likely have a limited additional role compared to current risk stratification strategies.

Investigation of the effect of different carbon film thickness on the exhaust valve

Science.gov (United States)

Karamangil, M. I.; Avci, A.; Bilal, H.

2008-03-01

Valves working under different loads and temperatures are the mostly forced engine elements. In an internal combustion engine, pressures and temperatures affecting on the valves vary with fuel type and the combustion characteristics of the fuel. Consequently, valves are exposed to different dynamic and thermal stress. In this study, stress distributions and temperature profiles on exhaust valve are obtained depending on different carbon film thickness. It is concluded that heat losses and valve temperatures decrease and valve surfaces are exposed to less thermal shocks with increasing carbon film thickness.

The use of engineering design scenarios to assess student knowledge of global, societal, economic, and environmental contexts

Science.gov (United States)

McKenna, Ann F.; Hynes, Morgan M.; Johnson, Amy M.; Carberry, Adam R.

2016-07-01

Product archaeology as an educational approach asks engineering students to consider and explore the broader societal and global impacts of a product's manufacturing, distribution, use, and disposal on people, economics, and the environment. This study examined the impact of product archaeology in a project-based engineering design course on student attitudes and perceptions about engineering and abilities to extend and refine knowledge about broader contexts. Two design scenarios were created: one related to dental hygiene and one related to vaccination delivery. Design scenarios were used to (1) assess knowledge of broader contexts, and (2) test variability of student responses across different contextual situations. Results from pre- to post-surveying revealed improved student perceptions of knowledge of broader contexts. Significant differences were observed between the two design scenarios. The findings support the assumption that different design scenarios elicit consideration of different contexts and design scenarios can be constructed to target specific contextual considerations.

Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

2017-12-01

Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused

Scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

2015-01-01

We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

Thickness filters for gradient based multi-material and thickness optimization of laminated composite structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Rene; Lund, Erik

2015-01-01

This paper presents a new gradient based method for performing discrete material and thickness optimization of laminated composite structures. The novelty in the new method lies in the application of so-called casting constraints, or thickness filters in this context, to control the thickness...... variation throughout the laminate. The filters replace the layerwise density variables with a single continuous through-the-thickness design variable. Consequently, the filters eliminate the need for having explicit constraints for preventing intermediate void through the thickness of the laminate....... Therefore, the filters reduce both the number of constraints and design variables in the optimization problem. Based upon a continuous approximation of a unit step function, the thickness filters are capable of projecting discrete 0/1 values to the underlying layerwise or ”physical” density variables which...

On Landau Scenario of Chaotization for Beam Distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parsa, Z.; Zadorozhny, V.

1999-01-01

We examine a problem in nonlinear dynamics in which both regular and chaotic motions are possible. Thus we deal with some of the fundamental theoretical problem of accelerator physics, mathematics theory of dynamical systems, and other fields of physics. The focus is on the appearance of chaos in a beam distribution. A study of the problem is based on two observations. The First observation is that using Lyapunov method and its extension we obtain solutions of partial differential equations. Using this approach we discuss the problem of finding a solution of Vlasov-Poisson equation, i.e., some stationary solution where we consider magnetic field as some disturbance with a small parameter. Thus the solution of Vlasov equation yields an asymptotic series such that the solution of Vlasov-Poisson equation is the basis solution for one. The second observation is that physical chaos is weakly limit of, well known, the Landau bifurcation's. This fact we have proved using ideas on the Nature of Turbulence

Design of Thermal Barrier Coatings Thickness for Gas Turbine Blade Based on Finite Element Analysis

OpenAIRE

Li, Biao; Fan, Xueling; Li, Dingjun; Jiang, Peng

2017-01-01

Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) are deposited on the turbine blade to reduce the temperature of underlying substrate, as well as providing protection against the oxidation and hot corrosion from high temperature gas. Optimal ceramic top-coat thickness distribution on the blade can improve the performance and efficiency of the coatings. Design of the coatings thickness is a multiobjective optimization problem due to the conflicts among objectives of high thermal insulation performance, long op...

Analyzing Future Flooding under Climate Change Scenario using CMIP5 Streamflow Data

Science.gov (United States)

Parajuli, Ranjan; Nyaupane, Narayan; Kalra, Ajay

2017-12-01

Flooding is a severe and costlier natural hazard. The effect of climate change has intensified the scenario in recent years. Flood prevention practice along with a proper understanding of flooding event can mitigate the risk of such hazard. The floodplain mapping is one of the technique to quantify the severity of the flooding. Carson City, which is one of the agricultural areas in the desert of Nevada has experienced peak flood in the recent year. The underlying probability distribution for the area, latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) streamflow data of Carson River were analyzed for 27 different statistical distributions. The best-fitted distribution underlying was used to forecast the 100yr flood (design flood). The data from 1950-2099 derived from 31 model and total 97 projections were used to predict the future streamflow. Delta change method is adopted to quantify the amount of future (2050-2099) flood. To determine the extent of flooding 3 scenarios (i) historic design flood, (ii) 500yr flood and (iii) future 100yr flood were routed on an HEC-RAS model, prepared using available terrain data. Some of the climate projection shows an extreme increase in future design flood. This study suggests an approach to quantify the future flood and floodplain using climate model projections. The study would provide helpful information to the facility manager, design engineer, and stakeholders.

SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Lourenço Junior

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

Comparison of 120- and 140-μm SMILE Cap Thickness Results in Eyes With Thick Corneas.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Manli; Zhou, Yugui; Wu, Xianghua; Ye, Tiantian; Liu, Quan

2016-10-01

To evaluate clinical outcomes after small incision lenticule extraction (SMILE) with different cap thicknesses in thick corneas. Forty patients with central corneal thickness of more than 560 μm were recruited in this prospective, randomized, masked, paired-eye study. Patients were randomized to receive SMILE with a 120-μm cap thickness in 1 eye and 140-μm cap thickness in the other. Uncorrected and corrected distance visual acuity (CDVA), contrast sensitivity (CS), higher-order aberrations (HOAs), and morphologic modifications of corneal architecture were measured during the 3-month follow-up period. Postoperative refractive outcomes, visual outcomes, CS, and the changes in HOAs were similar between both groups. The persistence of brightly reflective particles in the corneal interface layer was 1388.6 ± 219.5/mm in eyes with 120-μm cap thickness and 54.7 ± 8.6/mm in eyes with 140-μm cap thickness (P line at the interface layer almost disappeared in all eyes with 140-μm cap thickness, and it still persisted in 43% of the fellow eyes at 3 months postoperatively. The anterior surfaces of lenticules in the 140-μm cap thickness group exhibited more smoothness than in the 120-μm cap thickness group. There was a lower level corneal wound-healing response after SMILE with a 140-μm cap thickness than with a 120-μm cap thickness, although the thickness of cap creation did not affect visual outcomes by 3 months postoperatively.

Towards A Complete Census of the Compton-thick AGN population and the NH Distribution of AGN in the Local Universe.

Science.gov (United States)

Annuar, A.

2015-09-01

We present updated results from an ongoing project to establish the most unbiased census of the Compton- thick active galactic nucleus (CTAGN) population and the intrinsic column density (NH) distribution of the overall AGN population in the local universe, using a sample of mid-infrared (mid-IR) selected AGN within 15 Mpc. We find that 20% of the AGN in the sample are bona-fide CTAGN based upon hard X-ray studies (E > 10 keV). More candidates are then selected using multiwavelength techniques, i.e. mid-IR:X-ray and optical [OIII]5007:X-ray flux ratios. Based on these analyses along with evidence from previous literature, we initially find a further 25% of potential candidates. We then observed two of these candidates, NGC 5643 and NGC 3486, using NuSTAR and is able to confirm the former as a CTAGN and rule out the latter as an obscured AGN. This constrains the total CTAGN population in the sample to 25-40%, though it could potentially be as high as 65% accounting for those that still lack data. Finally, we use these results to estimate the intrinsic NH distribution of the local AGN population. Two more of our CTAGN candidates are scheduled to be observed by NuSTAR, bringing the completeness of hard X-ray energy data of the sample to 65%. This work provides a well-defined local benchmark for AGN unification studies.

Incentive Mechanisms for Mobile Music Distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Furini, Marco; Montangero, Manuela

The mobile digital world is seen as an important business opportunity for two main reasons: the widespread usage of cellphones (more than two billions [30], most of them with sound features) and the pervasiveness of mobile technologies. As a result, music industry and telecoms are bringing the successful Internet-based music market strategy into the mobile scenario: record labels are setting up agreements with cellphone network providers (Sprint, Verizon, Vodafone, Orange just to name a few) to offer a download music service also in the mobile scenario. The strategy is to use wireless channels to distribute music contents in the attempt of replicating the success of the Internet-based download scenario.

Flow and Heat Transfer of Bingham Plastic Fluid over a Rotating Disk with Variable Thickness

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Chunyan; Pan, Mingyang; Zheng, Liancun; Ming, Chunying; Zhang, Xinxin

2016-11-01

This paper studies the steady flow and heat transfer of Bingham plastic fluid over a rotating disk of finite radius with variable thickness radially in boundary layer. The boundary layer flow is caused by the rotating disk when the extra stress is greater than the yield stress of the Bingham fluid. The analyses of the velocity and temperature field related to the variable thickness disk have not been investigated in current literatures. The governing equations are first simplified into ordinary differential equations owing to the generalized von Kármán transformation for seeking solutions easily. Then semi-similarity approximate analytical solutions are obtained by using the homotopy analysis method for different physical parameters. It is found that the Bingham number clearly influences the velocity field distribution, and the skin friction coefficient Cfr is nonlinear growth with respect to the shape parameter m. Additionally, the effects of the involved parameters (i.e. shape parameter m, variable thickness parameter β, Reynolds number Rev, and Prandtl number Pr) on velocity and temperature distribution are investigated and analyzed in detail.

The negaWatt 2011 scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-03-01

This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben

2015-01-01

This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state: NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R-France technico-economic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centering on the acceptability of climate policies. - Highlights: • The article develops a ‘process-oriented’ low carbon scenario for France. • Stakeholders define a set of sectoral and fiscal ‘acceptable’ climate policies. • These policies are integrated within a technico-economic model Imaclim-R-France. • Economic impacts and CO 2 emission reductions are computed. •The co-development methodology favors joint production of solutions and shared vision-building

Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-05-01

This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

The effect of target thickness on x-ray production by FXR [Flash X-Ray Machine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Back, N.L.

1986-01-01

The electron-photon transport code SANDYL has been used to calculate the x-ray flux for a simplified Flash X-Ray Machine (FXR) bullnose geometry. Four different thicknesses (24.5, 36.75, 49, and 61.25 mils) were used for the tantalum bremsstrahlung target in order to study the effect of target thickness on the FXR output. The calculations were performed for a parallel 17 MeV electron beam, and the resulting angular distributions were then used to compute the forward flux for the more realistic case of a converging beam. Over the range of thicknesses studied, the x-ray energy content per steradian on axis was essentially independent of target thickness. The main reason for this is that, while the total x-ray flux coming out of the target increases with increasing target thickness, the angular width of that flux also increases. The implications for target wheel design are discussed. 3 refs., 7 figs

South Korean energy scenarios show how nuclear power can reduce future energy and environmental costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

2014-01-01

South Korea is an important case study for understanding the future role of nuclear power in countries with on-going economic growth, and limited renewable energy resources. We compared quantitatively the sustainability of two ‘future-mapping’ exercises (the ‘Governmental’ scenario, which relies on fossil fuels, and the Greenpeace scenario, which emphasises renewable energy and excludes nuclear power). The comparison was based on a range of environmental and technological perspectives, and contrasted against two additional nuclear scenarios that instead envisage a dominant role for nuclear energy. Sustainability metrics included energy costs, external costs (greenhouse-gas emissions, air pollutants, land transformation, water consumption and discharge, and safety) and additional costs. The nuclear-centred scenarios yielded the lowest total cost per unit of final energy consumption by 2050 ($14.37 GJ −1 ), whereas the Greenpeace scenario has the highest ($25.36 GJ −1 ). We used probabilistic simulations based on multi-factor distributional sampling of impact and cost metrics to estimate the overlapping likelihoods among scenarios to understand the effect of parameter uncertainty on the integrated recommendations. Our simulation modelling implies that, despite inherent uncertainties, pursuing a large-scale expansion of nuclear-power capacity offers the most sustainable pathway for South Korea, and that adopting a nuclear-free pathway will be more costly and produce more greenhouse-gas emissions. - Highlights: • Nuclear power has a key role to play in mitigating greenhouse-gas emissions. • The Greenpeace scenario has higher total external cost than the nuclear scenarios. • The nuclear-centred scenarios offer the most sustainable option for South Korea. • The similar conclusions are likely to apply to other Asian countries

Computer enhanced release scenario analysis for a nuclear waste repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stottlemyre, J.A.; Petrie, G.M.; Mullen, M.F.

1979-01-01

An interactive (user-oriented) computer tool is being developed at PNL to assist in the analysis of release scenarios for long-term safety assessment of a continental geologic nuclear waste repository. Emphasis is on characterizing the various ways the geologic and hydrologic system surrounding a repository might vary over the 10 6 to 10 7 years subsequent to final closure of the cavern. The potential disruptive phenomena are categorized as natural geologic and man-caused and tend to be synergistic in nature. The computer tool is designed to permit simulation of the system response as a function of the ongoing disruptive phenomena and time. It is designed to be operated in a determinatic manner, i.e., user selection of the desired scenarios and associated rate, magnitude, and lag time data; or in a stochastic mode. The stochastic mode involves establishing distributions for individual phenomena occurrence probabilities, rates, magnitudes, and phase relationships. A Monte-Carlo technique is then employed to generate a multitude of disruptive event scenarios, scan for breaches of the repository isolation, and develop input to the release consequence analysis task. To date, only a simplified one-dimensional version of the code has been completed. Significant modification and development is required to expand its dimensionality and apply the tool to any specific site

Variable thickness transient ground-water flow model. Volume 3. Program listings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reisenauer, A.E.

1979-12-01

The Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program is developing and applying the methodology for assessing the far-field, long-term post-closure safety of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories. AEGIS is being performed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) under contract with the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (OWNI) for the Department of Energy (DOE). One task within AEGIS is the development of methodology for analysis of the consequences (water pathway) from loss of repository containment as defined by various release scenarios. Analysis of the long-term, far-field consequences of release scenarios requires the application of numerical codes which simulate the hydrologic systems, model the transport of released radionuclides through the hydrologic systems to the biosphere, and, where applicable, assess the radiological dose to humans. Hydrologic and transport models are available at several levels of complexity or sophistication. Model selection and use are determined by the quantity and quality of input data. Model development under AEGIS and related programs provides three levels of hydrologic models, two levels of transport models, and one level of dose models (with several separate models). This is the third of 3 volumes of the description of the VTT (Variable Thickness Transient) Groundwater Hydrologic Model - second level (intermediate complexity) two-dimensional saturated groundwater flow

Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

Landfast ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from observations and models

Science.gov (United States)

Howell, Stephen E. L.; Laliberté, Frédéric; Kwok, Ron; Derksen, Chris; King, Joshua

2016-07-01

Observed and modelled landfast ice thickness variability and trends spanning more than 5 decades within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) are summarized. The observed sites (Cambridge Bay, Resolute, Eureka and Alert) represent some of the Arctic's longest records of landfast ice thickness. Observed end-of-winter (maximum) trends of landfast ice thickness (1957-2014) were statistically significant at Cambridge Bay (-4.31 ± 1.4 cm decade-1), Eureka (-4.65 ± 1.7 cm decade-1) and Alert (-4.44 ± 1.6 cm -1) but not at Resolute. Over the 50+-year record, the ice thinned by ˜ 0.24-0.26 m at Cambridge Bay, Eureka and Alert with essentially negligible change at Resolute. Although statistically significant warming in spring and fall was present at all sites, only low correlations between temperature and maximum ice thickness were present; snow depth was found to be more strongly associated with the negative ice thickness trends. Comparison with multi-model simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5), Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison (ORA-IP) and Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) show that although a subset of current generation models have a "reasonable" climatological representation of landfast ice thickness and distribution within the CAA, trends are unrealistic and far exceed observations by up to 2 orders of magnitude. ORA-IP models were found to have positive correlations between temperature and ice thickness over the CAA, a feature that is inconsistent with both observations and coupled models from CMIP5.

A method for quantitative analysis of clump thickness in cervical cytology slides.

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Yilun; Bradley, Andrew P

2016-01-01

Knowledge of the spatial distribution and thickness of cytology specimens is critical to the development of digital slide acquisition techniques that minimise both scan times and image file size. In this paper, we evaluate a novel method to achieve this goal utilising an exhaustive high-resolution scan, an over-complete wavelet transform across multi-focal planes and a clump segmentation of all cellular materials on the slide. The method is demonstrated with a quantitative analysis of ten normal, but difficult to scan Pap stained, Thin-prep, cervical cytology slides. We show that with this method the top and bottom of the specimen can be estimated to an accuracy of 1 μm in 88% and 97% of the fields of view respectively. Overall, cellular material can be over 30 μm thick and the distribution of cells is skewed towards the cover-slip (top of the slide). However, the median clump thickness is 10 μm and only 31% of clumps contain more than three nuclei. Therefore, by finding a focal map of the specimen the number of 1 μm spaced focal planes that are required to be scanned to acquire 95% of the in-focus material can be reduced from 25.4 to 21.4 on average. In addition, we show that by considering the thickness of the specimen, an improved focal map can be produced which further reduces the required number of 1 μm spaced focal planes to 18.6. This has the potential to reduce scan times and raw image data by over 25%. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thickness-Dependent Bioelectrochemical and Energy Applications of Thickness-Controlled Meso-Macroporous Antimony-Doped Tin Oxide

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Mieritz

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Coatings of hierarchically meso-macroporous antimony-doped tin oxide (ATO enable interfacing adsorbed species, such as biomacromolecules, with an electronic circuit. The coating thickness is a limiting factor for the surface coverage of adsorbates, that are electrochemically addressable. To overcome this challenge, a carbon black-based templating method was developed by studying the composition of the template system, and finding the right conditions for self-standing templates, preventing the reaction mixture from flowing out of the mask. The thicknesses of as-fabricated coatings were measured using stylus profilometry to establish a relationship between the mask thickness and the coating thickness. Cyclic voltammetry was performed on coatings with adsorbed cytochrome c to check whether the entire coating thickness was electrochemically addressable. Further, bacterial photosynthetic reaction centers were incorporated into the coatings, and photocurrent with respect to coating thickness was studied. The template mixture required enough of both carbon black and polymer, roughly 7% carbon black and 6% poly(ethylene glycol. Coatings were fabricated with thicknesses approaching 30 µm, and thickness was shown to be controllable up to at least 15 µm. Under the experimental conditions, photocurrent was found to increase linearly with the coating thickness, up to around 12 µm, above which were diminished gains.

Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

2000-01-01

The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

Growth Scenarios for the City of Guangzhou, China: Transferability and Confirmability

Science.gov (United States)

Lehner, A.; Kraus, V.; Wei, C.; Steinnocher, K.

2016-09-01

This work deals with the development of urban growth scenarios and the prevision of the spatial distribution of built-up area and population for the urban area of the city of Guangzhou in China. Using freely-available data, including remotely sensed data as well as census data from the ground, expenditure of time and costs shall remain low. Guangzhou, one of the biggest cities within the Pearl River Delta, has faced an enormous economic and urban growth during the last three decades. Due to its economical and spatial characteristics it is a promising candidate for urban growth scenarios. The monitoring and prediction of urban growth comprises data of population and give them a spatial representation. The model, originally applied for the Indian city Ahmedabad, is used for urban growth scenarios. Therefore, transferability and confirmability of the model are evaluated. Challenges that may occur by transferring a model for urban growth from one region to another are discussed. With proposing the use of urban remote sensing and freely available data, urban planners shall be fitted with a comprehensible and simple tool to be able to contribute to the future challenge Smart Growth.

GROWTH SCENARIOS FOR THE CITY OF GUANGZHOU, CHINA: TRANSFERABILITY AND CONFIRMABILITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Lehner

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This work deals with the development of urban growth scenarios and the prevision of the spatial distribution of built-up area and population for the urban area of the city of Guangzhou in China. Using freely-available data, including remotely sensed data as well as census data from the ground, expenditure of time and costs shall remain low. Guangzhou, one of the biggest cities within the Pearl River Delta, has faced an enormous economic and urban growth during the last three decades. Due to its economical and spatial characteristics it is a promising candidate for urban growth scenarios. The monitoring and prediction of urban growth comprises data of population and give them a spatial representation. The model, originally applied for the Indian city Ahmedabad, is used for urban growth scenarios. Therefore, transferability and confirmability of the model are evaluated. Challenges that may occur by transferring a model for urban growth from one region to another are discussed. With proposing the use of urban remote sensing and freely available data, urban planners shall be fitted with a comprehensible and simple tool to be able to contribute to the future challenge Smart Growth.

Multi-scenario evaluation and specification of electromagnetic loads on ITER vacuum vessel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rozov, Vladimir; Martinez, J.-M.; Portafaix, C.; Sannazzaro, G.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We present the results of multi-scenario analysis of EM loads on ITER vacuum vessel (VV). • The differentiation of models provides the economic way to perform big amount of calculations. • Functional approximation is proposed for distributed data/FE/numerical results specification. • Examples of specification of the load profiles by trigonometric polynomials (DHT) are given. • Principles of accounting for toroidal asymmetry at EM interactions in tokamak are considered. - Abstract: The electro-magnetic (EM) transients cause mechanical forces, which represent one of the most critical loads for the ITER vacuum vessel (VV). The paper is focused on the results of multi-scenario analysis and systematization of these EM loads, including specifically addressed pressures on shells and the net vertical force. The proposed mathematical model and computational technology, based on the use of integral parameters and operational analysis methods, enabled qualitative and quantitative analysis of the problem, time-efficient computations and systematic assessment of a large number of scenarios. The obtained estimates, found envelopes and peak values exemplify the principal loads on the VV and provide a database to support engineering load specifications. Special attention is given to the challenge of specification and documenting of the results in a form, suitable for using the data in engineering applications. The practical aspects of specification of distributed data, such as experimental and finite-element (FE) results, by analytical interpolants are discussed. The example of functional approximation of the load profiles by trigonometric polynomials based on discrete Hartley transform (DHT) is given

Multi-scenario evaluation and specification of electromagnetic loads on ITER vacuum vessel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rozov, Vladimir, E-mail: vladimir.rozov@iter.org; Martinez, J.-M.; Portafaix, C.; Sannazzaro, G.

2014-10-15

Highlights: • We present the results of multi-scenario analysis of EM loads on ITER vacuum vessel (VV). • The differentiation of models provides the economic way to perform big amount of calculations. • Functional approximation is proposed for distributed data/FE/numerical results specification. • Examples of specification of the load profiles by trigonometric polynomials (DHT) are given. • Principles of accounting for toroidal asymmetry at EM interactions in tokamak are considered. - Abstract: The electro-magnetic (EM) transients cause mechanical forces, which represent one of the most critical loads for the ITER vacuum vessel (VV). The paper is focused on the results of multi-scenario analysis and systematization of these EM loads, including specifically addressed pressures on shells and the net vertical force. The proposed mathematical model and computational technology, based on the use of integral parameters and operational analysis methods, enabled qualitative and quantitative analysis of the problem, time-efficient computations and systematic assessment of a large number of scenarios. The obtained estimates, found envelopes and peak values exemplify the principal loads on the VV and provide a database to support engineering load specifications. Special attention is given to the challenge of specification and documenting of the results in a form, suitable for using the data in engineering applications. The practical aspects of specification of distributed data, such as experimental and finite-element (FE) results, by analytical interpolants are discussed. The example of functional approximation of the load profiles by trigonometric polynomials based on discrete Hartley transform (DHT) is given.

Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

2017-01-01

existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

2017-01-01

In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2001-01-01

This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

2016-02-11

We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

Invasion risk of the yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 climate change scenario in South Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jae-Min Jung

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes has destroyed local ecosystems in numerous countries, and their population sizes and distribution are likely to increase under global warming. To evaluate the risk of invasion by yellow crazy ant in South Korea, this study identified their potential habitats and predicted their future global distribution by modeling various climate change scenarios using CLIMEX software. Our modeling predicted that future climate conditions in South Korea will be favorable for the yellow crazy ant, and they could invade by the mid-21st century. We highlight the use of predictive algorithms to establish geographical areas with a high risk of yellow crazy ant invasion under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. Keywords: Anoplolepis gracilipes, climate change scenario, CLIMEX, invasive species, yellow crazy ant

Regional Analysis of Soft Tissue Thickness on Korean Buttocks and Application to Fasciocutaneous Flap Design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Do Yup Kim

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Background Various shapes and designs of the gluteal artery perforator flap have been used for treating sacral pressure sores and reconstructing breasts. To establish the ideal fasciocutaneous flap design for use in the gluteal area, the soft tissue thickness distribution was measured. Methods Twenty-one buttocks of adult Korean cadavers were analyzed through rectangular subfascial dissection. Each buttock was divided horizontally into 10 sections and vertically into 10 sections, and then, the thickness at the corners of the sections was measured. For the sake of comparison and statistical verification with living bodies, computed tomography (CT images of 120 buttocks of patients were randomly selected. Five horizontal sections and 4 vertical sections were made, and the thickness at each corner was recorded. Results According to the dissection and the CT images, the area with the thinnest soft tissues in the buttock was around the posterior superior iliac spine, close to the sacral area. The thickest area was the superolateral area of the buttock, which was 3.24 times and 2.15 times thicker than the thinnest area in the studies on cadaver anatomy and the CT images, respectively. Conclusions The thickness of the soft tissues in the buttocks differed by area. The superolateral area had the thickest soft tissues, and the superomedial area had the thinnest. This study includes information on the distribution of the thickness of the gluteal soft tissues of Koreans. The outcome of this study may contribute to the design of effective local flaps for pressure sore reconstruction and free flaps for breast reconstruction.

Oxygen distribution in tumors: A qualitative analysis and modeling study providing a novel Monte Carlo approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lagerlöf, Jakob H.; Kindblom, Jon; Bernhardt, Peter

2014-01-01

end, due to anoxia, but smaller tumors showed undisturbed oxygen distributions. The six different models with correlated parameters generated three classes of oxygen distributions. The first was a hypothetical, negative covariance between vessel proximity and pO 2 (VPO-C scenario); the second was a hypothetical positive covariance between vessel proximity and pO 2 (VPO+C scenario); and the third was the hypothesis of no correlation between vessel proximity and pO 2 (UP scenario). The VPO-C scenario produced a distinctly different oxygen distribution than the two other scenarios. The shape of the VPO-C scenario was similar to that of the nonvariable DOC model, and the larger the tumor, the greater the similarity between the two models. For all simulations, the mean oxygen tension decreased and the hypoxic fraction increased with tumor size. The absorbed dose required for definitive tumor control was highest for the VPO+C scenario, followed by the UP and VPO-C scenarios. Conclusions: A novel MC algorithm was presented which simulated oxygen distributions and radiation response for various biological parameter values. The analysis showed that the VPO-C scenario generated a clearly different oxygen distribution from the VPO+C scenario; the former exhibited a lower hypoxic fraction and higher radiosensitivity. In future studies, this modeling approach might be valuable for qualitative analyses of factors that affect oxygen distribution as well as analyses of specific experimental and clinical situations

Scenario group summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorndike, A.

1976-01-01

A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

Scenario group summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorndike, A.

1976-01-01

The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

Effects of buffer thickness on ATW blanket performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, W. S.; Mercatali, L.; Taiwo, T. A.; Hill, R. N.

2001-01-01

This paper presents preliminary results of target and buffer design studies for liquid metal cooled accelerator transmutation of waste (ATW) systems, aimed at maximizing the source importance while simultaneously reducing the irradiation damage to fuel. Using 840 MWt liquid metal cooled ATW designs, the effects of buffer thickness on the blanket performance have been studied. Varying the buffer thickness for a given blanket configuration, system performance parameters have been estimated by a series of calculations using the MCNPX and REBUS-3 codes. The effects of source importance variation are studied by investigating the low-energy ( and lt; 20 MeV) neutron source distribution and the equilibrium cycle blanket performance parameters such as fuel inventory, discharge burnup, burnup reactivity loss, and peak fast fluence. For investigating irradiation damage to fuel, the displacements per atom (dpa), hydrogen production, and helium production rates are evaluated at the buffer and blanket interface where the peak fast fluence occurs. Results for the liquid-metal-cooled designs show that the damage rates and the source importance increase monotonically as the buffer thickness decreases. Based on a compromise between the competing objectives of increasing the source importance and reducing the damage rates, a buffer thickness of around 20 cm appears to be reasonable. Investigation of the impact of the proton beam energy on the target and buffer design shows that for a given blanket power level, a lower beam energy (0.6 GeV versus 1 GeV) results in a higher irradiation damage to the beam window. This trend occurs because of the increase in the beam intensity required to maintain the power level

Effects of Buffer Thickness on ATW Blanket Performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, W.S.; Mercatali, L.; Taiwo, T.A.; Hill, R.N.

2002-01-01

This paper presents preliminary results of target and buffer design studies for liquid metal cooled accelerator transmutation of waste (ATW) systems, aimed at maximizing the source importance while simultaneously reducing the irradiation damage to fuel. Using 840 MWt liquid metal cooled ATW designs, the effects of buffer thickness on the blanket performance have been studied. Varying the buffer thickness for a given blanket configuration, system performance parameters have been estimated by a series of calculations using the MCNPX and REBUS-3 codes. The effects of source importance variation are studied by investigating the low-energy (< 20 MeV) neutron source distribution and the equilibrium cycle blanket performance parameters such as fuel inventory, discharge burnup, burnup reactivity loss, and peak fast fluence. For investigating irradiation damage to fuel, the displacements per atom (dpa), hydrogen production, and helium production rates are evaluated at the buffer and blanket interface where the peak fast fluence occurs. Results for the liquid-metal-cooled designs show that the damage rates and the source importance increase monotonically as the buffer thickness decreases. Based on a compromise between the competing objectives of increasing the source importance and reducing the damage rates, a buffer thickness of around 20 cm appears to be reasonable. Investigation of the impact of the proton beam energy on the target and buffer design shows that for a given blanket power level, a lower beam energy (0.6 GeV versus 1 GeV) results in a higher irradiation damage to the beam window. This trend occurs because of the increase in the beam intensity required to maintain the power level. (authors)

Critical currents of variable thickness bridges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lapir, G.M.; Likharev, K.K.; Maslova, L.A.; Semenov, V.K.

1975-01-01

A variable thickness bridge (VTB) is a short strip of thin normal or superconducting electrodes - 'banks'. This type of weak link has the peculiarity of having the changes of the modulus of the orderparameter localized in the film of the bridge. Only changes of the phase of the orderparameter take place in the banks, and so the electrodynamics of the banks is linear. The problem of the distribution of the linear density of current Jsub(s)(psi) and of the phase difference of the banks psi along the VTB width is considered and the critical current Isub(c) for the important case of a VTB deposited over a superconducting ground plate - 'screen' is calculated. (Auth.)

Scenario design : adaptive architecture for command and control experiment eight

OpenAIRE

Clark, Frankie J.

2002-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. The Adaptive Architectures for Command and Control (A2C2) project is an ongoing research effort sponsored by the Office of Naval Research to explore adaptation in joint command and control. The objective of the project's eighth experiment is to study the adjustments that organizations make when they are confronted with a scenario for which their organizational is ill-suited. To accomplish this, teams will each be in one of two fundame...

Structural change in Europe's gas markets: three scenarios for the development of the European gas market to 2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellis, A.; Bowitz, E.; Roland, K.

2000-01-01

Against the background of the European Union's Gas Directive, and the emergence of new players and markets in Europe's gas sector, this paper explores how company actions could shape the future for the gas industry. Starting with an examination of company strategies this paper develops three scenarios for the future: a 'Gradual Transformation' scenario where a single European gas market develops that is essentially oligopolistic in nature; a 'Vertical Integration' scenario, where upstream and downstream gas companies merge to form a vertically integrated gas supplier; and a 'Pull the Plug' scenario, where the current market structure decomposes into a competitive market. These scenarios are examined in terms of their impact on gas prices, demand and the distribution of gas rent along the supply chain. The paper highlights the fact that the EU's gas Directive is not sufficient for the introduction of competition into Europe's gas markets, but that company actions will be the key determinant, and they may favour alternative market structures. (Author)

The effects of electrode thickness on the electrochemical and thermal characteristics of lithium ion battery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Rui; Liu, Jie; Gu, Junjie

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A coupling model is developed to study the behaviors of Li-ion batteries. • Thick electrode battery (CEB) has high temperature response during discharge. • Thin electrode battery has a relative lower capacity fading rate. • Less heat is generated in thin electrode battery with even heat distribution. • CEBs underutilize active materials and stop discharge early at high rates. - Abstract: Lithium ion (Li-ion) battery, consisting of multiple electrochemical cells, is a complex system whose high electrochemical and thermal stability is often critical to the well-being and functional capabilities of electric devices. Considering any change in the specifications may significantly affect the overall performance and life of a battery, an investigation on the impacts of electrode thickness on the electrochemical and thermal properties of lithium-ion battery cells based on experiments and a coupling model composed of a 1D electrochemical model and a 3D thermal model is conducted in this work. In-depth analyses on the basis of the experimental and simulated results are carried out for one cell of different depths of discharge as well as for a set of cells with different electrode thicknesses. Pertinent results have demonstrated that the electrode thickness can significantly influence the battery from many key aspects such as energy density, temperature response, capacity fading rate, overall heat generation, distribution and proportion of heat sources

Distribution of central corneal thickness and its association with ocular parameters in a large central European cohort: the Gutenberg health study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Esther M Hoffmann

Full Text Available MAIN OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the distribution of central corneal thickness (CCT in a large German cohort and to analyse its relationship with intraocular pressure and further ocular factors. DESIGN: Population-based, prospective, cohort study. METHODS: The Gutenberg Health Study (GHS cohort included 4,698 eligible enrollees of 5,000 subjects (age range 35-74 years who participated in the survey from 2007 to 2008. All participants underwent an ophthalmological examination including slitlamp biomicroscopy, intraocular pressure measurement, central corneal thickness measurement, fundus examination, and were given a questionnaire regarding glaucoma history. Furthermore, all subjects underwent fundus photography and visual field testing using frequency doubling perimetry. RESULTS: Mean CCT was 557.3 ± 34.3 µm (male and 551.6±35.2 µm in female subjects (Mean CCT from right and left eyes. Younger male participants (35-44 years presented slightly thicker CCT than those older. We noted a significant CCT difference of 4 µm between right and left eyes, but a high correlation between eyes (Wilcoxon test for related samples: p<0.0001. Univariable linear regression stratified by gender showed that IOP was correlated with CCT (p<0.0001. A 10 µm increase in CCT led to an increase in IOP between 0.35-0.38 mm Hg, depending on the eye and gender. Multivariable linear regression analysis revealed correlations between gender, spherical equivalent (right eyes, and CCT (p<.0001 and p=0.03, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We observed positive correlations between CCT and IOP and gender. CCT was not correlated with age, contact lens wear, positive family history for glaucoma, lens status, or iris colour.

Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

2013-09-01

This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

A brief overview of the distribution test grids with a distributed generation inclusion case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stanisavljević Aleksandar M.

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents an overview of the electric distribution test grids issued by different technical institutions. They are used for testing different scenarios in operation of a grid for research, benchmarking, comparison and other purposes. Their types, main characteristics, features as well as application possibilities are shown. Recently, these grids are modified with inclusion of distributed generation. An example of modification and application of the IEEE 13-bus for testing effects of faults in cases without and with a distributed generator connection to the grid is presented. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. III 042004: Smart Electricity Distribution Grids Based on Distribution Management System and Distributed Generation

Documentation and evaluation of model validation data used in scenario S

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rantavaara, A.; Arvela, H.; Suomela, M.

1996-01-01

Most radioactive fallout received in Finland after the Chernobyl nuclear accident originated in the first major release and spread over the test region between April 27 and 29, 1986. Most radioactive material was deposited with heavy showers which caused an uneven areal distribution. Deposition continued with varying intensity until May 12. At the end of April the growing season had not yet begun in Finland. Estimation of the mean deposition density was one of the modelling tasks. To avoid a biased starting point for foodchain assessments due to modellers' own deposition estimates, the mean deposition density of 137 Cs in each subregion used in the scenario was given as input information. The model validation test was started as a blind test. All regional information in the scenario description was coded, and the first maps of subregions were schematic to hide the actual test area. The blind test idea was gradually cancelled in the course of the exercise. The geographical region S was revealed after deposition estimates were made. At the same time, sources of information in the open literature became available to the modellers. After the blind test phase, communication was encouraged between modellers and the compiler of the scenario description at the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK) to avoid unnecessary misinterpretations of input information. Clarifications and additional information provided in the course of model calculations are included in the present scenario description. 100 refs, 31 figs, 67 tabs

Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

2017-01-01

This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-01-01

This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

Impact of distributed generation on distribution investment deferral

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mendez, V.H.; Rivier, J.; Fuente, J.I. de la; Gomez, T.; Arceluz, J.; Marin, J.; Madurga, A.

2006-01-01

The amount of distributed generation (DG) is increasing worldwide, and it is foreseen that in the future it will play an important role in electrical energy systems. DG is located in distribution networks close to consumers or even in the consumers' side of the meter. Therefore, the net demand to be supplied through transmission and distribution networks may decrease, allowing to postpone reinforcement of existing networks. This paper proposes a method to assess the impact of DG on distribution networks investment deferral in the long-term. Due to the randomness of the variables that have an impact on such matter (load demand patterns, DG hourly energy production, DG availability, etc.), a probabilistic approach using a Monte Carlo simulation is adopted. Several scenarios characterized by different DG penetration and concentration levels, and DG technology mixes, are analyzed. Results show that, once initial network reinforcements for DG connection have been accomplished, in the medium and long-term DG can defer feeder and/or transformer reinforcements. (author)

Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

2000-01-01

Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

Characterization of a glass frit free TiCuAg-thick film metallization applied on aluminium nitride

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reicher, R.; Smetana, W.; Adlassnig, A.; Schuster, J. C.; Gruber, U.

1997-01-01

The metallization of aluminium nitride substrates by glass frit free Ti CuAg-thick film pastes were investigated. Adhesion properties of the conductor paste were tested by measuring tensile strength and compared with commercial Cu-thick film pastes (within glass frit). Also numerical analysis of temperature-distribution and thermal extension of metallized aluminium nitride ceramic, induced by a continuous and a pulsed working electronic device were made with a finite element program. (author)

Portfolio optimization for seed selection in diverse weather scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Marko, Oskar; Brdar, Sanja; Panić, Marko; Šašić, Isidora; Despotović, Danica; Knežević, Milivoje; Crnojević, Vladimir

2017-01-01

The aim of this work was to develop a method for selection of optimal soybean varieties for the American Midwest using data analytics. We extracted the knowledge about 174 varieties from the dataset, which contained information about weather, soil, yield and regional statistical parameters. Next, we predicted the yield of each variety in each of 6,490 observed subregions of the Midwest. Furthermore, yield was predicted for all the possible weather scenarios approximated by 15 historical weather instances contained in the dataset. Using predicted yields and covariance between varieties through different weather scenarios, we performed portfolio optimisation. In this way, for each subregion, we obtained a selection of varieties, that proved superior to others in terms of the amount and stability of yield. According to the rules of Syngenta Crop Challenge, for which this research was conducted, we aggregated the results across all subregions and selected up to five soybean varieties that should be distributed across the network of seed retailers. The work presented in this paper was the winning solution for Syngenta Crop Challenge 2017.

Portfolio optimization for seed selection in diverse weather scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oskar Marko

Full Text Available The aim of this work was to develop a method for selection of optimal soybean varieties for the American Midwest using data analytics. We extracted the knowledge about 174 varieties from the dataset, which contained information about weather, soil, yield and regional statistical parameters. Next, we predicted the yield of each variety in each of 6,490 observed subregions of the Midwest. Furthermore, yield was predicted for all the possible weather scenarios approximated by 15 historical weather instances contained in the dataset. Using predicted yields and covariance between varieties through different weather scenarios, we performed portfolio optimisation. In this way, for each subregion, we obtained a selection of varieties, that proved superior to others in terms of the amount and stability of yield. According to the rules of Syngenta Crop Challenge, for which this research was conducted, we aggregated the results across all subregions and selected up to five soybean varieties that should be distributed across the network of seed retailers. The work presented in this paper was the winning solution for Syngenta Crop Challenge 2017.

Autonomous Sea-Ice Thickness Survey

Science.gov (United States)

2016-06-01

the conductivity of an infinitely thick slab of sea ice. Ice thickness, Hice, is then obtained by subtracting the height of the ...Thickness Survey of Sea Ice Runway” ERDC/CRREL SR-16-4 ii Abstract We conducted an autonomous survey of sea -ice thickness using the Polar rover Yeti...efficiency relative to manual surveys routinely con- ducted to assess the safety of roads and runways constructed on the sea ice. Yeti executed the

Benchmark calculations on residue production within the EURISOL DS project; Part II: thick targets

CERN Document Server

David, J.-C; Boudard, A; Doré, D; Leray, S; Rapp, B; Ridikas, D; Thiollière, N

Benchmark calculations on residue production using MCNPX 2.5.0. Calculations were compared to mass-distribution data for 5 different elements measured at ISOLDE, and to specific activities of 28 radionuclides in different places along the thick target measured in Dubna.

Effects of thickness on the statistical properties of the Barkhausen noise in amorphous films

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santi, L.; Bohn, F.; Viegas, A.D.C.; Durin, G.; Magni, A.; Bonin, R.; Zapperi, S.; Sommer, R.L.

2006-01-01

The statistical properties of the Barkhausen noise (BN) in thin amorphous films are studied as a function of both the nominal composition and the thickness. BN was observed in single films with nominal compositions Fe 73.5 Cu 1 Nb 3 Si 22.5-x B x (with x=4 and 9) in the thickness range 20nm-5μm. The distributions of Barkhausen jump sizes and duration times were obtained and fitted to power laws with critical exponents τ=1.25+/-0.05 and α=1.60+/-0.05, respectively

Thickness evaluation using a new relationship between film density and penetrated thickness in radiography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sung Sik; Kim, Young H.

2005-01-01

In order to improve the accuracies in the thickness evaluation using radiography, a new relationship between film density and penetrated thickness has been proposed, and experimental verification of the proposed relationship was carried out by using the X- and γ-ray radiographs of two carbon steel step wedges. A new parameter, the logarithmic gradient of film density, was defined in order to express the characteristics of the radiographic film for wider range of film density. A new relationship between the film density and the penetrated thickness were formulated using the logarithmic gradient of the film density. In experiment, the logarithmic gradient of the film density was independent on both the exposure and the film density and measured for the radiographic film used in the present work from the slope of the fitting lines for the same penetrated thickness. Experimental results verifies the accuracy of the proposed relationship between film density and the penetrated thickness for the range of film density from 1.0 to 3.5. The thickness can be more accurately determined by using the proposed relationship and the parameters determined by experiment. It is also found that the γ-ray having simple energy spectrum is more appropriate radiation source for the evaluation of the thickness from the film density of the radiograph

Climate scenarios for California

Science.gov (United States)

Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

2006-01-01

Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

GRADING SCALE OF VISCERAL ADIPOSE TISSUE THICKNESS AND THEIR RELATION TO THE NONALCOHOLIC FATTY LIVER DISEASE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luís Jesuino de Oliveira ANDRADE

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Context The mesenteric fat is drained by the portal system, being related to the metabolic syndrome which is an impor­tant risk factor for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD. Objectives Graduate of visceral fat thickness and correlate with the NAFLD degree through ultrasonography method. Methods We studied 352 subjects for age, gender, measures of subcutaneous fat thickness and visceral fat thickness as well as the presence and degree of liver fatty. Was analyzed the independent relationship between visceral fat thickness and NAFLD, and linear regression analysis was used in order to predict the visceral fat thickness from subcutaneous fat thickness. Results The mean age of 225 women (63.9% and 127 men (36.1% was 47.5 ± 14.0 (18-77 years, 255 subjects had normal examinations, 97 had NAFLD thus distributed, 37 grade 1, 32 grade 2, and 28 grade 3. The subcutaneous fat thickness ranged from 0.26 to 3.50 cm with a mean of 1.3 ± 0.6 cm and visceral fat thickness ranged from 0.83 to 8.86 cm with a mean of 3.6 ± 1.7 cm. Linear regression showed that for every increase of 1 cm in subcutaneous fat thickness the visceral fat thickness will increase 0.9 cm. Conclusions The visceral fat thickness measured by ultrasonography is a useful and seems to be able to help estimate the risk of NAFLD.

Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Freeman, Lauren A

2015-01-01

Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100.

Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lauren A Freeman

Full Text Available Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100.

Numerical Simulation of Bulging Deformation for Wide-Thick Slab Under Uneven Cooling Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Chenhui; Ji, Cheng; Zhu, Miaoyong

2018-06-01

In the present work, the bulging deformation of a wide-thick slab under uneven cooling conditions was studied using finite element method. The non-uniform solidification was first calculated using a 2D heat transfer model. The thermal material properties were derived based on a microsegregation model, and the water flux distribution was measured and applied to calculate the cooling boundary conditions. Based on the solidification results, a 3D bulging model was established. The 2D heat transfer model was verified by the measured shell thickness and the slab surface temperature, and the 3D bulging model was verified by the calculated maximum bulging deflections using formulas. The bulging deformation behavior of the wide-thick slab under uneven cooling condition was then determined, and the effect of uneven solidification, casting speed, and roll misalignment were investigated.

Numerical Simulation of Bulging Deformation for Wide-Thick Slab Under Uneven Cooling Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Chenhui; Ji, Cheng; Zhu, Miaoyong

2018-02-01

In the present work, the bulging deformation of a wide-thick slab under uneven cooling conditions was studied using finite element method. The non-uniform solidification was first calculated using a 2D heat transfer model. The thermal material properties were derived based on a microsegregation model, and the water flux distribution was measured and applied to calculate the cooling boundary conditions. Based on the solidification results, a 3D bulging model was established. The 2D heat transfer model was verified by the measured shell thickness and the slab surface temperature, and the 3D bulging model was verified by the calculated maximum bulging deflections using formulas. The bulging deformation behavior of the wide-thick slab under uneven cooling condition was then determined, and the effect of uneven solidification, casting speed, and roll misalignment were investigated.

Dependence of magnetic properties on ferromagnetic layer thickness in trilayer Co/Ge/Co films with granular semiconducting spacer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Patrin, G.S.; Lee, C.-G.; Turpanov, I.A.; Zharkov, S.M.; Velikanov, D.A.; Maltsev, V.K.; Li, L.A.; Lantsev, V.V.

2006-01-01

We have investigated the magnetic properties of trilayer films of Co-Ge-Co. At a fixed thickness of germanium of 3.5 nm, the formation and distribution of metastable amorphous and cubic phases depends on the thickness of the ferromagnetic layer. The portion of the stable hexagonal phase is affected, too. Possible mechanisms for forming the observed magnetic structure are discussed

Robustness of the Drinking Water Distribution Network under Changing Future Demand

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Agudelo-Vera, C.; Blokker, M.; Vreeburg, J.; Bongard, T.; Hillegers, S.; Van der Hoek, J.P.

2014-01-01

A methodology to determine the robustness of the drinking water distribution system is proposed. The performance of three networks under ten future demand scenarios was tested, using head loss and residence time as indicators. The scenarios consider technological and demographic changes. Daily

Scenario development methods and practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

Nanofiber-based filters as novel barrier systems for nanomaterial exposure scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Faccini, M; Amantia, D; Vazquez-Campos, S; Aubouy, L [LEITAT Technological Center, Passeig 22 de Juliol, 218, 08221 Terrassa (Spain); Vaquero, C; Lopez de Ipina, J M, E-mail: mfaccini@leitat.org [Tecnalia, P.T. Alava - C/ Leonardo Da Vinci, 11, 01510 Minano (Alava) (Spain)

2011-07-06

In this article our latest advances in the development of efficient barrier systems against micro- and nano-particulate materials are presented. Nanofibrous polyamide 6 (PA6) mats were fabricated by electrospinning onto a nonwoven viscose substrate. The influence of electrospinning parameters including solution concentration, viscosity, and conductivity, were studied for the production of nonwovens with different fiber size distribution ranging from 74 to 261 nm in diameters. Moreover, the formation of nanowebs (30-40 nm) which are widely distributed among fibers was observed. By varying several process parameters, membranes with different thickness of the nanofiber layer and therefore air permeability and nanoparticle filtration efficiency were obtained.

Vapor deposition on doublet airfoil substrates: Control of coating thickness and microstructure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rodgers, Theron M.; Zhao, Hengbei; Wadley, Haydn N. G., E-mail: haydn@virginia.edu [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, University of Virginia, 395 McCormick Rd., P.O. Box 400745, Charlottesville, Virginia 22904 (United States)

2015-11-15

Gas jet assisted vapor deposition processes for depositing coatings are conducted at higher pressures than conventional physical vapor deposition methods, and have shown promise for coating complex shaped substrates including those with non-line-of-sight (NLS) regions on their surface. These regions typically receive vapor atoms at a lower rate and with a wider incident angular distribution than substrate regions in line-of-sight (LS) of the vapor source. To investigate the coating of such substrates, the thickness and microstructure variation along the inner (curved) surfaces of a model doublet airfoil containing both LS and NLS regions has been investigated. Results from atomistic simulations and experiments confirm that the coating's thickness is thinner in flux-shadowed regions than in other regions for all the coating processes investigated. They also indicated that the coatings columnar microstructure and pore volume fraction vary with surface location through the LS to NLS transition zone. A substrate rotation strategy for optimizing the thickness over the entire doublet airfoil surface was investigated, and led to the identification of a process that resulted in only small variation of coating thickness, columnar growth angle, and pore volume fraction on all doublet airfoil surfaces.