Method of Check of Statistical Hypotheses for Revealing of “Fraud” Point of Sale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. M. Bolotskaya

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Application method checking of statistical hypotheses fraud Point of Sale working with purchasing cards and suspected of accomplishment of unauthorized operations is analyzed. On the basis of the received results the algorithm is developed, allowing receive an assessment of works of terminals in regime off-line.

Bayesian testing of constrained hypotheses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mulder, J.; Robertson, J; Kaptein, M

2016-01-01

Statistical hypothesis testing plays a central role in applied research to determine whether theories or expectations are supported by the data or not. Such expectations are often formulated using order constraints. For example an executive board may expect that sales representatives who wear a

COVAR: Computer Program for Multifactor Relative Risks and Tests of Hypotheses Using a Variance-Covariance Matrix from Linear and Log-Linear Regression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leif E. Peterson

1997-11-01

Full Text Available A computer program for multifactor relative risks, confidence limits, and tests of hypotheses using regression coefficients and a variance-covariance matrix obtained from a previous additive or multiplicative regression analysis is described in detail. Data used by the program can be stored and input from an external disk-file or entered via the keyboard. The output contains a list of the input data, point estimates of single or joint effects, confidence intervals and tests of hypotheses based on a minimum modified chi-square statistic. Availability of the program is also discussed.

A Bayesian decision procedure for testing multiple hypotheses in DNA microarray experiments.

Science.gov (United States)

Gómez-Villegas, Miguel A; Salazar, Isabel; Sanz, Luis

2014-02-01

DNA microarray experiments require the use of multiple hypothesis testing procedures because thousands of hypotheses are simultaneously tested. We deal with this problem from a Bayesian decision theory perspective. We propose a decision criterion based on an estimation of the number of false null hypotheses (FNH), taking as an error measure the proportion of the posterior expected number of false positives with respect to the estimated number of true null hypotheses. The methodology is applied to a Gaussian model when testing bilateral hypotheses. The procedure is illustrated with both simulated and real data examples and the results are compared to those obtained by the Bayes rule when an additive loss function is considered for each joint action and the generalized loss 0-1 function for each individual action. Our procedure significantly reduced the percentage of false negatives whereas the percentage of false positives remains at an acceptable level.

Testing Hypotheses on Risk Factors for Scientific Misconduct via Matched-Control Analysis of Papers Containing Problematic Image Duplications.

Science.gov (United States)

Fanelli, Daniele; Costas, Rodrigo; Fang, Ferric C; Casadevall, Arturo; Bik, Elisabeth M

2018-02-19

It is commonly hypothesized that scientists are more likely to engage in data falsification and fabrication when they are subject to pressures to publish, when they are not restrained by forms of social control, when they work in countries lacking policies to tackle scientific misconduct, and when they are male. Evidence to test these hypotheses, however, is inconclusive due to the difficulties of obtaining unbiased data. Here we report a pre-registered test of these four hypotheses, conducted on papers that were identified in a previous study as containing problematic image duplications through a systematic screening of the journal PLoS ONE. Image duplications were classified into three categories based on their complexity, with category 1 being most likely to reflect unintentional error and category 3 being most likely to reflect intentional fabrication. We tested multiple parameters connected to the hypotheses above with a matched-control paradigm, by collecting two controls for each paper containing duplications. Category 1 duplications were mostly not associated with any of the parameters tested, as was predicted based on the assumption that these duplications were mostly not due to misconduct. Categories 2 and 3, however, exhibited numerous statistically significant associations. Results of univariable and multivariable analyses support the hypotheses that academic culture, peer control, cash-based publication incentives and national misconduct policies might affect scientific integrity. No clear support was found for the "pressures to publish" hypothesis. Female authors were found to be equally likely to publish duplicated images compared to males. Country-level parameters generally exhibited stronger effects than individual-level parameters, because developing countries were significantly more likely to produce problematic image duplications. This suggests that promoting good research practices in all countries should be a priority for the international

Testing Hypotheses About Glacial Cycles Against the Observational Record

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaufmann, Robert; Juselius, Katarina

2013-01-01

We estimate an identified cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) model of the climate system to test hypotheses about the physical mechanisms that may drive glacial cycles during the late Pleistocene. Results indicate that a permanent doubling of CO2 generates a 11.1oC rise in Antarctic...

100 statistical tests

CERN Document Server

Kanji, Gopal K

2006-01-01

This expanded and updated Third Edition of Gopal K. Kanji's best-selling resource on statistical tests covers all the most commonly used tests with information on how to calculate and interpret results with simple datasets. Each entry begins with a short summary statement about the test's purpose, and contains details of the test objective, the limitations (or assumptions) involved, a brief outline of the method, a worked example, and the numerical calculation. 100 Statistical Tests, Third Edition is the one indispensable guide for users of statistical materials and consumers of statistical information at all levels and across all disciplines.

Automatic Bayes Factors for Testing Equality- and Inequality-Constrained Hypotheses on Variances.

Science.gov (United States)

Böing-Messing, Florian; Mulder, Joris

2018-05-03

In comparing characteristics of independent populations, researchers frequently expect a certain structure of the population variances. These expectations can be formulated as hypotheses with equality and/or inequality constraints on the variances. In this article, we consider the Bayes factor for testing such (in)equality-constrained hypotheses on variances. Application of Bayes factors requires specification of a prior under every hypothesis to be tested. However, specifying subjective priors for variances based on prior information is a difficult task. We therefore consider so-called automatic or default Bayes factors. These methods avoid the need for the user to specify priors by using information from the sample data. We present three automatic Bayes factors for testing variances. The first is a Bayes factor with equal priors on all variances, where the priors are specified automatically using a small share of the information in the sample data. The second is the fractional Bayes factor, where a fraction of the likelihood is used for automatic prior specification. The third is an adjustment of the fractional Bayes factor such that the parsimony of inequality-constrained hypotheses is properly taken into account. The Bayes factors are evaluated by investigating different properties such as information consistency and large sample consistency. Based on this evaluation, it is concluded that the adjusted fractional Bayes factor is generally recommendable for testing equality- and inequality-constrained hypotheses on variances.

Black/White Differences in Adolescent Drug Use: A Test of Six Hypotheses

Science.gov (United States)

Rote, Sunshine M.; Taylor, John

2014-01-01

Six specific hypotheses have been developed to account for why Caucasians have higher rates of drug use compared to African-Americans. This article utilizes data from a South Florida-based community study of 893 young adults (1998-2002) to test these hypotheses. Specifically, Caucasians (1) initiate drug use at younger ages than African-Americans…

Sexual videos in Internet: a test of 11 hypotheses about intimate practices and gender interactions in Latin America

OpenAIRE

Monge-Nájera, Julián; Corrales, Karla Vega

2015-01-01

There is a marked lack of literature on user-submitted sexual videos from Latin America. To start filling that gap, we present a formal statistical testing of several hypotheses about the characteristics of 214 videos from Nereliatube.com posted from the inauguration of the site until December 2010. We found that in most cases the video was made consensually and the camera was operated by the man. The most frequent practice shown was fellatio, followed by vaginal penetration.  The great major...

Parameter estimation and testing of hypotheses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fruhwirth, R.

1996-01-01

This lecture presents the basic mathematical ideas underlying the concept of random variable and the construction and analysis of estimators and test statistics. The material presented is based mainly on four books given in the references: the general exposition of estimators and test statistics follows Kendall and Stuart which is a comprehensive review of the field; the book by Eadie et al. contains selecting topics of particular interest to experimental physicist and a host of illuminating examples from experimental high-energy physics; for the presentation of numerical procedures, the Press et al. and the Thisted books have been used. The last section deals with estimation in dynamic systems. In most books the Kalman filter is presented in a Bayesian framework, often obscured by cumbrous notation. In this lecture, the link to classical least-squares estimators and regression models is stressed with the aim of facilitating the access to this less familiar topic. References are given for specific applications to track and vertex fitting and for extended exposition of these topics. In the appendix, the link between Bayesian decision rules and feed-forward neural networks is presented. (J.S.). 10 refs., 5 figs., 1 appendix

Bayes Factor Approaches for Testing Interval Null Hypotheses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Morey, Richard D.; Rouder, Jeffrey N.

2011-01-01

Psychological theories are statements of constraint. The role of hypothesis testing in psychology is to test whether specific theoretical constraints hold in data. Bayesian statistics is well suited to the task of finding supporting evidence for constraint, because it allows for comparing evidence

Estimating the Proportion of True Null Hypotheses in Multiple Testing Problems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oluyemi Oyeniran

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The problem of estimating the proportion, π0, of the true null hypotheses in a multiple testing problem is important in cases where large scale parallel hypotheses tests are performed independently. While the problem is a quantity of interest in its own right in applications, the estimate of π0 can be used for assessing or controlling an overall false discovery rate. In this article, we develop an innovative nonparametric maximum likelihood approach to estimate π0. The nonparametric likelihood is proposed to be restricted to multinomial models and an EM algorithm is also developed to approximate the estimate of π0. Simulation studies show that the proposed method outperforms other existing methods. Using experimental microarray datasets, we demonstrate that the new method provides satisfactory estimate in practice.

Causal null hypotheses of sustained treatment strategies: What can be tested with an instrumental variable?

Science.gov (United States)

Swanson, Sonja A; Labrecque, Jeremy; Hernán, Miguel A

2018-05-02

Sometimes instrumental variable methods are used to test whether a causal effect is null rather than to estimate the magnitude of a causal effect. However, when instrumental variable methods are applied to time-varying exposures, as in many Mendelian randomization studies, it is unclear what causal null hypothesis is tested. Here, we consider different versions of causal null hypotheses for time-varying exposures, show that the instrumental variable conditions alone are insufficient to test some of them, and describe additional assumptions that can be made to test a wider range of causal null hypotheses, including both sharp and average causal null hypotheses. Implications for interpretation and reporting of instrumental variable results are discussed.

Statistical Diversions

Science.gov (United States)

Petocz, Peter; Sowey, Eric

2008-01-01

In this article, the authors focus on hypothesis testing--that peculiarly statistical way of deciding things. Statistical methods for testing hypotheses were developed in the 1920s and 1930s by some of the most famous statisticians, in particular Ronald Fisher, Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson, who laid the foundations of almost all modern methods of…

Near-exact distributions for the block equicorrelation and equivariance likelihood ratio test statistic

Science.gov (United States)

Coelho, Carlos A.; Marques, Filipe J.

2013-09-01

In this paper the authors combine the equicorrelation and equivariance test introduced by Wilks [13] with the likelihood ratio test (l.r.t.) for independence of groups of variables to obtain the l.r.t. of block equicorrelation and equivariance. This test or its single block version may find applications in many areas as in psychology, education, medicine, genetics and they are important "in many tests of multivariate analysis, e.g. in MANOVA, Profile Analysis, Growth Curve analysis, etc" [12, 9]. By decomposing the overall hypothesis into the hypotheses of independence of groups of variables and the hypothesis of equicorrelation and equivariance we are able to obtain the expressions for the overall l.r.t. statistic and its moments. From these we obtain a suitable factorization of the characteristic function (c.f.) of the logarithm of the l.r.t. statistic, which enables us to develop highly manageable and precise near-exact distributions for the test statistic.

Statistical theory of signal detection

CERN Document Server

Helstrom, Carl Wilhelm; Costrell, L; Kandiah, K

1968-01-01

Statistical Theory of Signal Detection, Second Edition provides an elementary introduction to the theory of statistical testing of hypotheses that is related to the detection of signals in radar and communications technology. This book presents a comprehensive survey of digital communication systems. Organized into 11 chapters, this edition begins with an overview of the theory of signal detection and the typical detection problem. This text then examines the goals of the detection system, which are defined through an analogy with the testing of statistical hypotheses. Other chapters consider

Vestigial Biological Structures: A Classroom-Applicable Test of Creationist Hypotheses

Science.gov (United States)

Senter, Phil; Ambrocio, Zenis; Andrade, Julia B.; Foust, Katanya K.; Gaston, Jasmine E.; Lewis, Ryshonda P.; Liniewski, Rachel M.; Ragin, Bobby A.; Robinson, Khanna L.; Stanley, Shane G.

2015-01-01

Lists of vestigial biological structures in biology textbooks are so short that some young-Earth creationist authors claim that scientists have lost confidence in the existence of vestigial structures and can no longer identify any verifiable ones. We tested these hypotheses with a method that is easily adapted to biology classes. We used online…

Using potential performance theory to test five hypotheses about meta-attribution.

Science.gov (United States)

Trafimow, David; Hunt, Gayle; Rice, Stephen; Geels, Kasha

2011-01-01

Based on I. Kant's (1991) distinction between perfect and imperfect duties and the attribution literature pertaining to that distinction, the authors proposed and tested 5 hypotheses about meta-attribution. More specifically, violations of perfect duties have been shown to arouse both more negative affect and stronger correspondent inferences than do violations of imperfect duties (e.g., D. Trafimow, I. K. Bromgard, K. A. Finlay, & T. Ketelaar, 2005). But when it comes to making meta-attributions-that is, guessing the attributions others would make-is the affect differential an advantage or a disadvantage? In addition to the null hypothesis of no effect, the authors proposed and tested additional hypotheses about how negative affect might increase or decrease the effectiveness of people's meta-attribution strategies and how even if there is no effect on strategy effectiveness, negative affect could increase or decrease the consistencies with which these strategies could be used.

Human female orgasm as evolved signal: a test of two hypotheses.

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Ellsworth, Ryan M; Bailey, Drew H

2013-11-01

We present the results of a study designed to empirically test predictions derived from two hypotheses regarding human female orgasm behavior as an evolved communicative trait or signal. One hypothesis tested was the female fidelity hypothesis, which posits that human female orgasm signals a woman's sexual satisfaction and therefore her likelihood of future fidelity to a partner. The other was sire choice hypothesis, which posits that women's orgasm behavior signals increased chances of fertilization. To test the two hypotheses of human female orgasm, we administered a questionnaire to 138 females and 121 males who reported that they were currently in a romantic relationship. Key predictions of the female fidelity hypothesis were not supported. In particular, orgasm was not associated with female sexual fidelity nor was orgasm associated with male perceptions of partner sexual fidelity. However, faked orgasm was associated with female sexual infidelity and lower male relationship satisfaction. Overall, results were in greater support of the sire choice signaling hypothesis than the female fidelity hypothesis. Results also suggest that male satisfaction with, investment in, and sexual fidelity to a mate are benefits that favored the selection of orgasmic signaling in ancestral females.

Testing competing hypotheses about single trial fMRI

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Lars Kai; Purushotham, Archana; Kim, Seong-Ge

2002-01-01

We use a Bayesian framework to compute probabilities of competing hypotheses about functional activation based on single trial fMRI measurements. Within the framework we obtain a complete probabilistic picture of competing hypotheses, hence control of both type I and type II errors....

Delinquency and Peer Acceptance in Adolescence: A Within-Person Test of Moffitt's Hypotheses

Science.gov (United States)

Rulison, Kelly L.; Kreager, Derek A.; Osgood, D. Wayne

2014-01-01

We tested 2 hypotheses derived from Moffitt's (1993) taxonomic theory of antisocial behavior, both of which are central to her explanation for the rise in delinquency during adolescence. We tested whether persistently delinquent individuals become more accepted by their peers during adolescence and whether individuals who abstain from delinquent…

Bullying Victimization and Adolescent Self-Harm: Testing Hypotheses from General Strain Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Hay, Carter; Meldrum, Ryan

2010-01-01

Self-harm is widely recognized as a significant adolescent social problem, and recent research has begun to explore its etiology. Drawing from Agnew's (1992) social psychological strain theory of deviance, this study considers this issue by testing three hypotheses about the effects of traditional and cyber bullying victimization on deliberate…

Statistical testing of association between menstruation and migraine.

Science.gov (United States)

Barra, Mathias; Dahl, Fredrik A; Vetvik, Kjersti G

2015-02-01

To repair and refine a previously proposed method for statistical analysis of association between migraine and menstruation. Menstrually related migraine (MRM) affects about 20% of female migraineurs in the general population. The exact pathophysiological link from menstruation to migraine is hypothesized to be through fluctuations in female reproductive hormones, but the exact mechanisms remain unknown. Therefore, the main diagnostic criterion today is concurrency of migraine attacks with menstruation. Methods aiming to exclude spurious associations are wanted, so that further research into these mechanisms can be performed on a population with a true association. The statistical method is based on a simple two-parameter null model of MRM (which allows for simulation modeling), and Fisher's exact test (with mid-p correction) applied to standard 2 × 2 contingency tables derived from the patients' headache diaries. Our method is a corrected version of a previously published flawed framework. To our best knowledge, no other published methods for establishing a menstruation-migraine association by statistical means exist today. The probabilistic methodology shows good performance when subjected to receiver operator characteristic curve analysis. Quick reference cutoff values for the clinical setting were tabulated for assessing association given a patient's headache history. In this paper, we correct a proposed method for establishing association between menstruation and migraine by statistical methods. We conclude that the proposed standard of 3-cycle observations prior to setting an MRM diagnosis should be extended with at least one perimenstrual window to obtain sufficient information for statistical processing. © 2014 American Headache Society.

Risk, innovation, electricity infrastructure and construction cost overruns: Testing six hypotheses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sovacool, Benjamin K.; Gilbert, Alex; Nugent, Daniel

2014-01-01

This study investigates the frequency and magnitude of cost and time overruns occurring during the construction of 401 electricity projects built between 1936 and 2014 in 57 countries. In aggregate, these projects required approximately $820 billion in investment, and amounted to 325,515 MW of installed capacity and 8495 km of transmission lines. We use this sample of projects to test six hypotheses about construction cost overruns related to (1) diseconomies of scale, (2) project delays, (3) technological learning, (4) regulation and markets, (5) decentralization and modularity, and (6) normalization of results to scale. We find that nuclear reactors are the riskiest technology in terms of mean cost escalation as a percentage of budget and frequency; that hydroelectric dams stand apart for their mean cost escalation in total dollars; that many of the hypotheses grounded in the literature appear wrong; and that financing, partnerships, modularity, and accountability may have more to do with overruns than technology. - Highlights: • Many hypotheses about construction overruns grounded in the literature appear wrong. • Nuclear reactors are the most prone to cost overruns as a percentage of budget and frequency. • Hydroelectric dams stand apart for their mean cost escalation in total dollars. • Solar and wind energy systems are least at risk to cost overruns

Information theory and statistics

CERN Document Server

Kullback, Solomon

1968-01-01

Highly useful text studies logarithmic measures of information and their application to testing statistical hypotheses. Includes numerous worked examples and problems. References. Glossary. Appendix. 1968 2nd, revised edition.

Hypothesized eye movements of neurolinguistic programming: a statistical artifact.

Science.gov (United States)

Farmer, A; Rooney, R; Cunningham, J R

1985-12-01

Neurolinguistic programming's hypothesized eye-movements were measured independently from videotapes of 30 subjects, aged 15 to 76 yr., who were asked to recall visual pictures, recorded audio sounds, and textural objects. chi 2 indicated that subjects' responses were significantly different from those predicted. When chi 2 comparisons were weighted by number of eye positions assigned to each modality (3 visual, 3 auditory, 1 kinesthetic), subjects' responses did not differ significantly from the expected pattern. These data indicate that the eye-movement hypothesis may represent randomly occurring rather than sensory-modality-related positions.

The power of gene-based rare variant methods to detect disease-associated variation and test hypotheses about complex disease.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Loukas Moutsianas

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Genome and exome sequencing in large cohorts enables characterization of the role of rare variation in complex diseases. Success in this endeavor, however, requires investigators to test a diverse array of genetic hypotheses which differ in the number, frequency and effect sizes of underlying causal variants. In this study, we evaluated the power of gene-based association methods to interrogate such hypotheses, and examined the implications for study design. We developed a flexible simulation approach, using 1000 Genomes data, to (a generate sequence variation at human genes in up to 10K case-control samples, and (b quantify the statistical power of a panel of widely used gene-based association tests under a variety of allelic architectures, locus effect sizes, and significance thresholds. For loci explaining ~1% of phenotypic variance underlying a common dichotomous trait, we find that all methods have low absolute power to achieve exome-wide significance (~5-20% power at α = 2.5 × 10(-6 in 3K individuals; even in 10K samples, power is modest (~60%. The combined application of multiple methods increases sensitivity, but does so at the expense of a higher false positive rate. MiST, SKAT-O, and KBAC have the highest individual mean power across simulated datasets, but we observe wide architecture-dependent variability in the individual loci detected by each test, suggesting that inferences about disease architecture from analysis of sequencing studies can differ depending on which methods are used. Our results imply that tens of thousands of individuals, extensive functional annotation, or highly targeted hypothesis testing will be required to confidently detect or exclude rare variant signals at complex disease loci.

The insignificance of statistical significance testing

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Douglas H.

1999-01-01

Despite their use in scientific journals such as The Journal of Wildlife Management, statistical hypothesis tests add very little value to the products of research. Indeed, they frequently confuse the interpretation of data. This paper describes how statistical hypothesis tests are often viewed, and then contrasts that interpretation with the correct one. I discuss the arbitrariness of P-values, conclusions that the null hypothesis is true, power analysis, and distinctions between statistical and biological significance. Statistical hypothesis testing, in which the null hypothesis about the properties of a population is almost always known a priori to be false, is contrasted with scientific hypothesis testing, which examines a credible null hypothesis about phenomena in nature. More meaningful alternatives are briefly outlined, including estimation and confidence intervals for determining the importance of factors, decision theory for guiding actions in the face of uncertainty, and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and other statistical practices.

Statistical hypothesis testing with SAS and R

CERN Document Server

Taeger, Dirk

2014-01-01

A comprehensive guide to statistical hypothesis testing with examples in SAS and R When analyzing datasets the following questions often arise:Is there a short hand procedure for a statistical test available in SAS or R?If so, how do I use it?If not, how do I program the test myself? This book answers these questions and provides an overview of the most commonstatistical test problems in a comprehensive way, making it easy to find and performan appropriate statistical test. A general summary of statistical test theory is presented, along with a basicdescription for each test, including the

The evolution of parental care in insects: A test of current hypotheses

Science.gov (United States)

Gilbert, James D J; Manica, Andrea

2015-01-01

Which sex should care for offspring is a fundamental question in evolution. Invertebrates, and insects in particular, show some of the most diverse kinds of parental care of all animals, but to date there has been no broad comparative study of the evolution of parental care in this group. Here, we test existing hypotheses of insect parental care evolution using a literature-compiled phylogeny of over 2000 species. To address substantial uncertainty in the insect phylogeny, we use a brute force approach based on multiple random resolutions of uncertain nodes. The main transitions were between no care (the probable ancestral state) and female care. Male care evolved exclusively from no care, supporting models where mating opportunity costs for caring males are reduced—for example, by caring for multiple broods—but rejecting the “enhanced fecundity” hypothesis that male care is favored because it allows females to avoid care costs. Biparental care largely arose by males joining caring females, and was more labile in Holometabola than in Hemimetabola. Insect care evolution most closely resembled amphibian care in general trajectory. Integrating these findings with the wealth of life history and ecological data in insects will allow testing of a rich vein of existing hypotheses. PMID:25825047

Kinetics of cancer: a method to test hypotheses of genetic causation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lipkin Steven M

2005-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Mouse studies have recently compared the age-onset patterns of cancer between different genotypes. Genes associated with earlier onset are tentatively assigned a causal role in carcinogenesis. These standard analyses ignore the great amount of information about kinetics contained in age-onset curves. We present a method for analyzing kinetics that measures quantitatively the causal role of candidate genes in cancer progression. We use our method to demonstrate a clear association between somatic mutation rates of different DNA mismatch repair (MMR genotypes and the kinetics of cancer progression. Methods Most experimental studies report age-onset curves as the fraction diagnosed with tumors at each age for each group. We use such data to estimate smoothed survival curves, then measure incidence rates at each age by the slope of the fitted curve divided by the fraction of mice that remain undiagnosed for tumors at that age. With the estimated incidence curves, we compare between different genotypes the median age of cancer onset and the acceleration of cancer, which is the rate of increase in incidence with age. Results The direction of change in somatic mutation rate between MMR genotypes predicts the direction of change in the acceleration of cancer onset in all 7 cases (p ˜ 0.008, with the same result for the association between mutation rate and the median age of onset. Conclusion Many animal experiments compare qualitatively the onset curves for different genotypes. If such experiments were designed to analyze kinetics, the research could move to the next stage in which the mechanistic consequences of particular genetic pathways are related to the dynamics of carcinogenesis. The data we analyzed here were not collected to test mechanistic and quantitative hypotheses about kinetics. Even so, a simple reanalysis revealed significant insights about how DNA repair genotypes affect separately the age of onset and the

[The research protocol VI: How to choose the appropriate statistical test. Inferential statistics].

Science.gov (United States)

Flores-Ruiz, Eric; Miranda-Novales, María Guadalupe; Villasís-Keever, Miguel Ángel

2017-01-01

The statistical analysis can be divided in two main components: descriptive analysis and inferential analysis. An inference is to elaborate conclusions from the tests performed with the data obtained from a sample of a population. Statistical tests are used in order to establish the probability that a conclusion obtained from a sample is applicable to the population from which it was obtained. However, choosing the appropriate statistical test in general poses a challenge for novice researchers. To choose the statistical test it is necessary to take into account three aspects: the research design, the number of measurements and the scale of measurement of the variables. Statistical tests are divided into two sets, parametric and nonparametric. Parametric tests can only be used if the data show a normal distribution. Choosing the right statistical test will make it easier for readers to understand and apply the results.

The research protocol VI: How to choose the appropriate statistical test. Inferential statistics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric Flores-Ruiz

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The statistical analysis can be divided in two main components: descriptive analysis and inferential analysis. An inference is to elaborate conclusions from the tests performed with the data obtained from a sample of a population. Statistical tests are used in order to establish the probability that a conclusion obtained from a sample is applicable to the population from which it was obtained. However, choosing the appropriate statistical test in general poses a challenge for novice researchers. To choose the statistical test it is necessary to take into account three aspects: the research design, the number of measurements and the scale of measurement of the variables. Statistical tests are divided into two sets, parametric and nonparametric. Parametric tests can only be used if the data show a normal distribution. Choosing the right statistical test will make it easier for readers to understand and apply the results.

The MAX Statistic is Less Powerful for Genome Wide Association Studies Under Most Alternative Hypotheses.

Science.gov (United States)

Shifflett, Benjamin; Huang, Rong; Edland, Steven D

2017-01-01

Genotypic association studies are prone to inflated type I error rates if multiple hypothesis testing is performed, e.g., sequentially testing for recessive, multiplicative, and dominant risk. Alternatives to multiple hypothesis testing include the model independent genotypic χ 2 test, the efficiency robust MAX statistic, which corrects for multiple comparisons but with some loss of power, or a single Armitage test for multiplicative trend, which has optimal power when the multiplicative model holds but with some loss of power when dominant or recessive models underlie the genetic association. We used Monte Carlo simulations to describe the relative performance of these three approaches under a range of scenarios. All three approaches maintained their nominal type I error rates. The genotypic χ 2 and MAX statistics were more powerful when testing a strictly recessive genetic effect or when testing a dominant effect when the allele frequency was high. The Armitage test for multiplicative trend was most powerful for the broad range of scenarios where heterozygote risk is intermediate between recessive and dominant risk. Moreover, all tests had limited power to detect recessive genetic risk unless the sample size was large, and conversely all tests were relatively well powered to detect dominant risk. Taken together, these results suggest the general utility of the multiplicative trend test when the underlying genetic model is unknown.

Testing Alternative Hypotheses Regarding the Association between Behavioral Inhibition and Language Development in Toddlerhood

Science.gov (United States)

Watts, Ashley K. Smith; Patel, Deepika; Corley, Robin P.; Friedman, Naomi P.; Hewitt, John K.; Robinson, JoAnn L.; Rhee, Soo H.

2014-01-01

Studies have reported an inverse association between language development and behavioral inhibition or shyness across childhood, but the direction of this association remains unclear. This study tested alternative hypotheses regarding this association in a large sample of toddlers. Data on behavioral inhibition and expressive and receptive…

Testing evolutionary hypotheses for phenotypic divergence using landscape genetics.

Science.gov (United States)

Funk, W Chris; Murphy, Melanie A

2010-02-01

Understanding the evolutionary causes of phenotypic variation among populations has long been a central theme in evolutionary biology. Several factors can influence phenotypic divergence, including geographic isolation, genetic drift, divergent natural or sexual selection, and phenotypic plasticity. But the relative importance of these factors in generating phenotypic divergence in nature is still a tantalizing and unresolved problem in evolutionary biology. The origin and maintenance of phenotypic divergence is also at the root of many ongoing debates in evolutionary biology, such as the extent to which gene flow constrains adaptive divergence (Garant et al. 2007) and the relative importance of genetic drift, natural selection, and sexual selection in initiating reproductive isolation and speciation (Coyne & Orr 2004). In this issue, Wang & Summers (2010) test the causes of one of the most fantastic examples of phenotypic divergence in nature: colour pattern divergence among populations of the strawberry poison frog (Dendrobates pumilio) in Panama and Costa Rica (Fig. 1). This study provides a beautiful example of the use of the emerging field of landscape genetics to differentiate among hypotheses for phenotypic divergence. Using landscape genetic analyses, Wang & Summers were able to reject the hypotheses that colour pattern divergence is due to isolation-by-distance (IBD) or landscape resistance. Instead, the hypothesis left standing is that colour divergence is due to divergent selection, in turn driving reproductive isolation among populations with different colour morphs. More generally, this study provides a wonderful example of how the emerging field of landscape genetics, which has primarily been applied to questions in conservation and ecology, now plays an essential role in evolutionary research.

Polarimetric Segmentation Using Wishart Test Statistic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skriver, Henning; Schou, Jesper; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

2002-01-01

A newly developed test statistic for equality of two complex covariance matrices following the complex Wishart distribution and an associated asymptotic probability for the test statistic has been used in a segmentation algorithm. The segmentation algorithm is based on the MUM (merge using moments......) approach, which is a merging algorithm for single channel SAR images. The polarimetric version described in this paper uses the above-mentioned test statistic for merging. The segmentation algorithm has been applied to polarimetric SAR data from the Danish dual-frequency, airborne polarimetric SAR, EMISAR...

Can MOND type hypotheses be tested in a free fall laboratory environment?

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Saurya; Patitsas, S. N.

2013-05-01

The extremely small accelerations of objects required for the onset of modified Newtonian dynamics, or modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND), makes testing the hypothesis in conventional terrestrial laboratories virtually impossible. This is due to the large background acceleration of Earth, which is transmitted to the acceleration of test objects within an apparatus. We show, however, that it may be possible to test MOND-type hypotheses with experiments using a conventional apparatus capable of tracking very small accelerations of its components but performed in locally inertial frames such as artificial satellites and other freely falling laboratories. For example, experiments involving an optical interferometer or a torsion balance in these laboratories would show nonlinear dynamics and displacement amplitudes larger than expected. These experiments may also be able to test potential violations of the strong equivalence principle by MOND and to distinguish between its two possible interpretations (modified inertia and modified gravity).

The evolution of parental care in insects: A test of current hypotheses.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilbert, James D J; Manica, Andrea

2015-05-01

Which sex should care for offspring is a fundamental question in evolution. Invertebrates, and insects in particular, show some of the most diverse kinds of parental care of all animals, but to date there has been no broad comparative study of the evolution of parental care in this group. Here, we test existing hypotheses of insect parental care evolution using a literature-compiled phylogeny of over 2000 species. To address substantial uncertainty in the insect phylogeny, we use a brute force approach based on multiple random resolutions of uncertain nodes. The main transitions were between no care (the probable ancestral state) and female care. Male care evolved exclusively from no care, supporting models where mating opportunity costs for caring males are reduced-for example, by caring for multiple broods-but rejecting the "enhanced fecundity" hypothesis that male care is favored because it allows females to avoid care costs. Biparental care largely arose by males joining caring females, and was more labile in Holometabola than in Hemimetabola. Insect care evolution most closely resembled amphibian care in general trajectory. Integrating these findings with the wealth of life history and ecological data in insects will allow testing of a rich vein of existing hypotheses. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution.

A criterion for testing hypotheses about the covariance function of a stationary Gaussian stochastic process

OpenAIRE

Kozachenko, Yuriy; Troshki, Viktor

2015-01-01

We consider a measurable stationary Gaussian stochastic process. A criterion for testing hypotheses about the covariance function of such a process using estimates for its norm in the space $L_p(\\mathbb {T}),\\,p\\geq1$, is constructed.

Learned Helplessness and Depression in a Clinical Population: A Test of Two Behavioral Hypotheses

Science.gov (United States)

And Others; Price, Kenneth P.

1978-01-01

This study was undertaken to extend the learned helplessness phenomenon to a clinical population and to test the competing hypotheses of Seligman and Lewinsohn. 96 male hospitalized psychiatric and medical patients were randomly assigned to one of four experimental conditions. Results replicate the learned helplessness phenomenon in a group of…

A simplification of the likelihood ratio test statistic for testing ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The traditional likelihood ratio test statistic for testing hypothesis about goodness of fit of multinomial probabilities in one, two and multi – dimensional contingency table was simplified. Advantageously, using the simplified version of the statistic to test the null hypothesis is easier and faster because calculating the expected ...

Testing contingency hypotheses in budgetary research: An evaluation of the use of moderated regression analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hartmann, Frank G.H.; Moers, Frank

1999-01-01

In the contingency literature on the behavioral and organizational effects of budgeting, use of the Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) technique is prevalent. This technique is used to test contingency hypotheses that predict interaction effects between budgetary and contextual variables. This

Interactions between domestic and export markets for softwood lumber and plywood: tests of six hypotheses.

Science.gov (United States)

David R. Darr

1981-01-01

Price formation in export markets and available data on export and domestic markets are discussed. The results of tests of several hypotheses about interactions between domestic and export markets are presented and interpreted from the standpoints of trade promotion and trade policy.

Using Transcranial tDCS to test cognitive hypotheses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nazbanou Nozari

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (tDCS is used increasingly often for testing cognitive hypotheses. It is, however, often ignored that many assumptions regarding how the neural tissue reacts to stimulation have only been verified in the motor domain. Extrapolating these assumptions to the cognitive domain has a set of unique issues which, if ignored, can lead to incorrect interpretations. In this talk I will review a number of common pitfalls in using tDCS for testing a cognitive hypothesis, and discuss some solutions for better-controlled designs. I will address the following issues: 1- Making an incorrect assumption about the nature of the effect: It is often assumed that anodal stimulation has “excitatory” and cathodal stimulation has “inhibitory” effects. Results are then interpreted in light of this assumption. Obviously, if the assumption is incorrect, the interpretation of the results too will be incorrect. I will discuss how the effects of polarity can change as a function of a number of design parameters, and the dangers of making a priori assumptions about the direction of stimulation effects, especially when employing a new design. 2- Choosing an inappropriate montage: By definition, tDCS requires two electrodes, although we are often only interested in stimulating one brain region. Where the second (reference electrode is placed may not be of theoretical interest to us, but it can have serious consequences for our effects of interest. For one thing the path of the direct current changes as a function of where the reference electrode is placed. This affects the density of the current, as well as the regions that undergo stimulation. Moreover, the region directly under the reference electrode is very likely to be affected by stimulation. Therefore, sometimes the changes in behavior may be due to the unanticipated effects at the reference electrode site, as opposed to the hypothesized effects at the target electrode site

Explorations in Statistics: Hypothesis Tests and P Values

Science.gov (United States)

Curran-Everett, Douglas

2009-01-01

Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This second installment of "Explorations in Statistics" delves into test statistics and P values, two concepts fundamental to the test of a scientific null hypothesis. The essence of a test statistic is that it compares what…

Phylemon 2.0: a suite of web-tools for molecular evolution, phylogenetics, phylogenomics and hypotheses testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Sánchez, Rubén; Serra, François; Tárraga, Joaquín; Medina, Ignacio; Carbonell, José; Pulido, Luis; de María, Alejandro; Capella-Gutíerrez, Salvador; Huerta-Cepas, Jaime; Gabaldón, Toni; Dopazo, Joaquín; Dopazo, Hernán

2011-07-01

Phylemon 2.0 is a new release of the suite of web tools for molecular evolution, phylogenetics, phylogenomics and hypotheses testing. It has been designed as a response to the increasing demand of molecular sequence analyses for experts and non-expert users. Phylemon 2.0 has several unique features that differentiates it from other similar web resources: (i) it offers an integrated environment that enables evolutionary analyses, format conversion, file storage and edition of results; (ii) it suggests further analyses, thereby guiding the users through the web server; and (iii) it allows users to design and save phylogenetic pipelines to be used over multiple genes (phylogenomics). Altogether, Phylemon 2.0 integrates a suite of 30 tools covering sequence alignment reconstruction and trimming; tree reconstruction, visualization and manipulation; and evolutionary hypotheses testing.

Phylemon 2.0: a suite of web-tools for molecular evolution, phylogenetics, phylogenomics and hypotheses testing

Science.gov (United States)

Sánchez, Rubén; Serra, François; Tárraga, Joaquín; Medina, Ignacio; Carbonell, José; Pulido, Luis; de María, Alejandro; Capella-Gutíerrez, Salvador; Huerta-Cepas, Jaime; Gabaldón, Toni; Dopazo, Joaquín; Dopazo, Hernán

2011-01-01

Phylemon 2.0 is a new release of the suite of web tools for molecular evolution, phylogenetics, phylogenomics and hypotheses testing. It has been designed as a response to the increasing demand of molecular sequence analyses for experts and non-expert users. Phylemon 2.0 has several unique features that differentiates it from other similar web resources: (i) it offers an integrated environment that enables evolutionary analyses, format conversion, file storage and edition of results; (ii) it suggests further analyses, thereby guiding the users through the web server; and (iii) it allows users to design and save phylogenetic pipelines to be used over multiple genes (phylogenomics). Altogether, Phylemon 2.0 integrates a suite of 30 tools covering sequence alignment reconstruction and trimming; tree reconstruction, visualization and manipulation; and evolutionary hypotheses testing. PMID:21646336

Robust inference from multiple test statistics via permutations: a better alternative to the single test statistic approach for randomized trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Ganju, Jitendra; Yu, Xinxin; Ma, Guoguang Julie

2013-01-01

Formal inference in randomized clinical trials is based on controlling the type I error rate associated with a single pre-specified statistic. The deficiency of using just one method of analysis is that it depends on assumptions that may not be met. For robust inference, we propose pre-specifying multiple test statistics and relying on the minimum p-value for testing the null hypothesis of no treatment effect. The null hypothesis associated with the various test statistics is that the treatment groups are indistinguishable. The critical value for hypothesis testing comes from permutation distributions. Rejection of the null hypothesis when the smallest p-value is less than the critical value controls the type I error rate at its designated value. Even if one of the candidate test statistics has low power, the adverse effect on the power of the minimum p-value statistic is not much. Its use is illustrated with examples. We conclude that it is better to rely on the minimum p-value rather than a single statistic particularly when that single statistic is the logrank test, because of the cost and complexity of many survival trials. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Distinguish Dynamic Basic Blocks by Structural Statistical Testing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petit, Matthieu; Gotlieb, Arnaud

Statistical testing aims at generating random test data that respect selected probabilistic properties. A distribution probability is associated with the program input space in order to achieve statistical test purpose: to test the most frequent usage of software or to maximize the probability of...... control flow path) during the test data selection. We implemented this algorithm in a statistical test data generator for Java programs. A first experimental validation is presented...

A simple and robust statistical framework for planning, analysing and interpreting faecal egg count reduction test (FECRT) studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Denwood, M.J.; McKendrick, I.J.; Matthews, L.

Introduction. There is an urgent need for a method of analysing FECRT data that is computationally simple and statistically robust. A method for evaluating the statistical power of a proposed FECRT study would also greatly enhance the current guidelines. Methods. A novel statistical framework has...... been developed that evaluates observed FECRT data against two null hypotheses: (1) the observed efficacy is consistent with the expected efficacy, and (2) the observed efficacy is inferior to the expected efficacy. The method requires only four simple summary statistics of the observed data. Power...... that the notional type 1 error rate of the new statistical test is accurate. Power calculations demonstrate a power of only 65% with a sample size of 20 treatment and control animals, which increases to 69% with 40 control animals or 79% with 40 treatment animals. Discussion. The method proposed is simple...

Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: Should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

Science.gov (United States)

Taroni, F; Biedermann, A; Bozza, S

2016-02-01

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Properties of hypothesis testing techniques and (Bayesian) model selection for exploration-based and theory-based (order-restricted) hypotheses.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuiper, Rebecca M; Nederhoff, Tim; Klugkist, Irene

2015-05-01

In this paper, the performance of six types of techniques for comparisons of means is examined. These six emerge from the distinction between the method employed (hypothesis testing, model selection using information criteria, or Bayesian model selection) and the set of hypotheses that is investigated (a classical, exploration-based set of hypotheses containing equality constraints on the means, or a theory-based limited set of hypotheses with equality and/or order restrictions). A simulation study is conducted to examine the performance of these techniques. We demonstrate that, if one has specific, a priori specified hypotheses, confirmation (i.e., investigating theory-based hypotheses) has advantages over exploration (i.e., examining all possible equality-constrained hypotheses). Furthermore, examining reasonable order-restricted hypotheses has more power to detect the true effect/non-null hypothesis than evaluating only equality restrictions. Additionally, when investigating more than one theory-based hypothesis, model selection is preferred over hypothesis testing. Because of the first two results, we further examine the techniques that are able to evaluate order restrictions in a confirmatory fashion by examining their performance when the homogeneity of variance assumption is violated. Results show that the techniques are robust to heterogeneity when the sample sizes are equal. When the sample sizes are unequal, the performance is affected by heterogeneity. The size and direction of the deviations from the baseline, where there is no heterogeneity, depend on the effect size (of the means) and on the trend in the group variances with respect to the ordering of the group sizes. Importantly, the deviations are less pronounced when the group variances and sizes exhibit the same trend (e.g., are both increasing with group number). © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

Introduction to statistics

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2005-01-01

The three lectures will present an introduction to statistical methods as used in High Energy Physics. As the time will be very limited, the course will seek mainly to define the important issues and to introduce the most wide used tools. Topics will include the interpretation and use of probability, estimation of parameters and testing of hypotheses.

Introduction to statistics

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2004-01-01

The three lectures will present an introduction to statistical methods as used in High Energy Physics. As the time will be very limited, the course will seek mainly to define the important issues and to introduce the most wide used tools. Topics will include the interpretation and use of probability, estimation of parameters and testing of hypotheses.

Quantitative linking hypotheses for infant eye movements.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Yurovsky

Full Text Available The study of cognitive development hinges, largely, on the analysis of infant looking. But analyses of eye gaze data require the adoption of linking hypotheses: assumptions about the relationship between observed eye movements and underlying cognitive processes. We develop a general framework for constructing, testing, and comparing these hypotheses, and thus for producing new insights into early cognitive development. We first introduce the general framework--applicable to any infant gaze experiment--and then demonstrate its utility by analyzing data from a set of experiments investigating the role of attentional cues in infant learning. The new analysis uncovers significantly more structure in these data, finding evidence of learning that was not found in standard analyses and showing an unexpected relationship between cue use and learning rate. Finally, we discuss general implications for the construction and testing of quantitative linking hypotheses. MATLAB code for sample linking hypotheses can be found on the first author's website.

Simplified Freeman-Tukey test statistics for testing probabilities in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper presents the simplified version of the Freeman-Tukey test statistic for testing hypothesis about multinomial probabilities in one, two and multidimensional contingency tables that does not require calculating the expected cell frequencies before test of significance. The simplified method established new criteria of ...

Analysis of Preference Data Using Intermediate Test Statistic Abstract

African Journals Online (AJOL)

PROF. O. E. OSUAGWU

2013-06-01

Jun 1, 2013 ... West African Journal of Industrial and Academic Research Vol.7 No. 1 June ... Keywords:-Preference data, Friedman statistic, multinomial test statistic, intermediate test statistic. ... new method and consequently a new statistic ...

New Graphical Methods and Test Statistics for Testing Composite Normality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marc S. Paolella

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Several graphical methods for testing univariate composite normality from an i.i.d. sample are presented. They are endowed with correct simultaneous error bounds and yield size-correct tests. As all are based on the empirical CDF, they are also consistent for all alternatives. For one test, called the modified stabilized probability test, or MSP, a highly simplified computational method is derived, which delivers the test statistic and also a highly accurate p-value approximation, essentially instantaneously. The MSP test is demonstrated to have higher power against asymmetric alternatives than the well-known and powerful Jarque-Bera test. A further size-correct test, based on combining two test statistics, is shown to have yet higher power. The methodology employed is fully general and can be applied to any i.i.d. univariate continuous distribution setting.

Introduction to Statistics course

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva HR-RFA

2006-01-01

The four lectures will present an introduction to statistical methods as used in High Energy Physics. As the time will be very limited, the course will seek mainly to define the important issues and to introduce the most wide used tools. Topics will include the interpretation and use of probability, estimation of parameters and testing of hypotheses.

Pre-service primary school teachers’ knowledge of informal statistical inference

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Vetten, Arjen; Schoonenboom, Judith; Keijzer, Ronald; van Oers, Bert

2018-01-01

The ability to reason inferentially is increasingly important in today’s society. It is hypothesized here that engaging primary school students in informal statistical reasoning (ISI), defined as making generalizations without the use of formal statistical tests, will help them acquire the

Modified Distribution-Free Goodness-of-Fit Test Statistic.

Science.gov (United States)

Chun, So Yeon; Browne, Michael W; Shapiro, Alexander

2018-03-01

Covariance structure analysis and its structural equation modeling extensions have become one of the most widely used methodologies in social sciences such as psychology, education, and economics. An important issue in such analysis is to assess the goodness of fit of a model under analysis. One of the most popular test statistics used in covariance structure analysis is the asymptotically distribution-free (ADF) test statistic introduced by Browne (Br J Math Stat Psychol 37:62-83, 1984). The ADF statistic can be used to test models without any specific distribution assumption (e.g., multivariate normal distribution) of the observed data. Despite its advantage, it has been shown in various empirical studies that unless sample sizes are extremely large, this ADF statistic could perform very poorly in practice. In this paper, we provide a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon and further propose a modified test statistic that improves the performance in samples of realistic size. The proposed statistic deals with the possible ill-conditioning of the involved large-scale covariance matrices.

Log-concave Probability Distributions: Theory and Statistical Testing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

An, Mark Yuing

1996-01-01

This paper studies the broad class of log-concave probability distributions that arise in economics of uncertainty and information. For univariate, continuous, and log-concave random variables we prove useful properties without imposing the differentiability of density functions. Discrete...... and multivariate distributions are also discussed. We propose simple non-parametric testing procedures for log-concavity. The test statistics are constructed to test one of the two implicati ons of log-concavity: increasing hazard rates and new-is-better-than-used (NBU) property. The test for increasing hazard...... rates are based on normalized spacing of the sample order statistics. The tests for NBU property fall into the category of Hoeffding's U-statistics...

Testing Biological Hypotheses with Embodied Robots: Adaptations, Accidents, and By-Products in the Evolution of Vertebrates

OpenAIRE

Roberts, Sonia F.; Hirokawa, Jonathan; Rosenblum, Hannah G.; Sakhtah, Hassan; Gutierrez, Andres A.; Porter, Marianne E.; Long, John H.

2014-01-01

Evolutionary robotics allows biologists to test hypotheses about extinct animals. In our case, we modeled some of the first vertebrates, jawless fishes, in order to study the evolution of the trait after which vertebrates are named: vertebrae. We tested the hypothesis that vertebrae are an adaptation for enhanced feeding and fleeing performance. We created a population of autonomous embodied robots, Preyro, in which the number of vertebrae, N, were free to evolve. In addition, two other trait...

Can manipulations of cognitive load be used to test evolutionary hypotheses?

Science.gov (United States)

Barrett, H Clark; Frederick, David A; Haselton, Martie G; Kurzban, Robert

2006-09-01

D. DeSteno, M. Y. Bartlett, J. Braverman, and P. Salovey proposed that if sex-differentiated responses to infidelity are evolved, then they should be automatic, and therefore cognitive load should not attenuate them. DeSteno et al. found smaller sex differences in response to sexual versus emotional infidelity among participants under cognitive load, an effect interpreted as evidence against the evolutionary hypothesis. This logic is faulty. Cognitive load probably affects mechanisms involved in simulating infidelity experiences, thus seriously challenging the usefulness of cognitive load manipulations in testing hypotheses involving simulation. The method also entails the assumption that evolved jealousy mechanisms are necessarily automatic, an assumption not supported by theory or evidence. Regardless of how the jealousy debate is eventually settled, cognitive load manipulations cannot rule out the operation of evolved mechanisms. ((c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

Similar tests and the standardized log likelihood ratio statistic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jens Ledet

1986-01-01

When testing an affine hypothesis in an exponential family the 'ideal' procedure is to calculate the exact similar test, or an approximation to this, based on the conditional distribution given the minimal sufficient statistic under the null hypothesis. By contrast to this there is a 'primitive......' approach in which the marginal distribution of a test statistic considered and any nuisance parameter appearing in the test statistic is replaced by an estimate. We show here that when using standardized likelihood ratio statistics the 'primitive' procedure is in fact an 'ideal' procedure to order O(n -3...

Two independent pivotal statistics that test location and misspecification and add-up to the Anderson-Rubin statistic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleibergen, F.R.

2002-01-01

We extend the novel pivotal statistics for testing the parameters in the instrumental variables regression model. We show that these statistics result from a decomposition of the Anderson-Rubin statistic into two independent pivotal statistics. The first statistic is a score statistic that tests

Caveats for using statistical significance tests in research assessments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schneider, Jesper Wiborg

2013-01-01

controversial and numerous criticisms have been leveled against their use. Based on examples from articles by proponents of the use statistical significance tests in research assessments, we address some of the numerous problems with such tests. The issues specifically discussed are the ritual practice......This article raises concerns about the advantages of using statistical significance tests in research assessments as has recently been suggested in the debate about proper normalization procedures for citation indicators by Opthof and Leydesdorff (2010). Statistical significance tests are highly...... argue that applying statistical significance tests and mechanically adhering to their results are highly problematic and detrimental to critical thinking. We claim that the use of such tests do not provide any advantages in relation to deciding whether differences between citation indicators...

Teaching Statistics in Language Testing Courses

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, James Dean

2013-01-01

The purpose of this article is to examine the literature on teaching statistics for useful ideas that teachers of language testing courses can draw on and incorporate into their teaching toolkits as they see fit. To those ends, the article addresses eight questions: What is known generally about teaching statistics? Why are students so anxious…

Age and motives for volunteering: testing hypotheses derived from socioemotional selectivity theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Okun, Morris A; Schultz, Amy

2003-06-01

Following a meta-analysis of the relations between age and volunteer motives (career, understanding, enhancement, protective, making friends, social, and values), the authors tested hypotheses derived from socioemotional selectivity theory regarding the effects of age on these volunteer motives. The Volunteer Functions Inventory was completed by 523 volunteers from 2 affiliates of the International Habitat for Humanity. Multiple regression analyses revealed, as predicted, that as age increases, career and understanding volunteer motivation decrease and social volunteer motivation increases. Contrary to expectations, age did not contribute to the prediction of enhancement, protective, and values volunteer motivations and the relation between age and making friends volunteer motivation was nonlinear. The results were discussed in the context of age-differential and age-similarity perspectives on volunteer motivation.

Origin of honeycombs: Testing the hydraulic and case hardening hypotheses

Science.gov (United States)

Bruthans, Jiří; Filippi, Michal; Slavík, Martin; Svobodová, Eliška

2018-02-01

Cavernous weathering (cavernous rock decay) is a global phenomenon, which occurs in porous rocks around the world. Although honeycombs and tafoni are considered to be the most common products of this complex process, their origin and evolution are as yet not fully understood. The two commonly assumed formation hypotheses - hydraulic and case hardening - were tested to elucidate the origin of honeycombs on sandstone outcrops in a humid climate. Mechanical and hydraulic properties of the lips (walls between adjacent pits) and backwalls (bottoms of pits) of the honeycombs were determined via a set of established and novel approaches. While the case hardening hypothesis was not supported by the determinations of either tensile strength, drilling resistance or porosity, the hydraulic hypothesis was clearly supported by field measurements and laboratory tests. Fluorescein dye visualization of capillary zone, vapor zone, and evaporation front upon their contact, demonstrated that the evaporation front reaches the honeycomb backwalls under low water flow rate, while the honeycomb lips remain dry. During occasional excessive water flow events, however, the evaporation front may shift to the lips, while the backwalls become moist as a part of the capillary zone. As the zone of evaporation corresponds to the zone of potential salt weathering, it is the spatial distribution of the capillary and vapor zones which dictates whether honeycombs are created or the rock surface is smoothed. A hierarchical model of factors related to the hydraulic field was introduced to obtain better insights into the process of cavernous weathering.

Powerful Statistical Inference for Nested Data Using Sufficient Summary Statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Dowding, Irene; Haufe, Stefan

2018-01-01

Hierarchically-organized data arise naturally in many psychology and neuroscience studies. As the standard assumption of independent and identically distributed samples does not hold for such data, two important problems are to accurately estimate group-level effect sizes, and to obtain powerful statistical tests against group-level null hypotheses. A common approach is to summarize subject-level data by a single quantity per subject, which is often the mean or the difference between class means, and treat these as samples in a group-level t-test. This “naive” approach is, however, suboptimal in terms of statistical power, as it ignores information about the intra-subject variance. To address this issue, we review several approaches to deal with nested data, with a focus on methods that are easy to implement. With what we call the sufficient-summary-statistic approach, we highlight a computationally efficient technique that can improve statistical power by taking into account within-subject variances, and we provide step-by-step instructions on how to apply this approach to a number of frequently-used measures of effect size. The properties of the reviewed approaches and the potential benefits over a group-level t-test are quantitatively assessed on simulated data and demonstrated on EEG data from a simulated-driving experiment. PMID:29615885

Statistical methods for ranking data

CERN Document Server

Alvo, Mayer

2014-01-01

This book introduces advanced undergraduate, graduate students and practitioners to statistical methods for ranking data. An important aspect of nonparametric statistics is oriented towards the use of ranking data. Rank correlation is defined through the notion of distance functions and the notion of compatibility is introduced to deal with incomplete data. Ranking data are also modeled using a variety of modern tools such as CART, MCMC, EM algorithm and factor analysis. This book deals with statistical methods used for analyzing such data and provides a novel and unifying approach for hypotheses testing. The techniques described in the book are illustrated with examples and the statistical software is provided on the authors’ website.

Family stress and parental responses to children's negative emotions: tests of the spillover, crossover, and compensatory hypotheses.

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Jackie A; O'Brien, Marion; Blankson, A Nayena; Calkins, Susan D; Keane, Susan P

2009-10-01

The relations between 4 sources of family stress (marital dissatisfaction, home chaos, parental depressive symptoms, and job role dissatisfaction) and the emotion socialization practice of mothers' and fathers' responses to children's negative emotions were examined. Participants included 101 couples with 7-year-old children. Dyadic analyses were conducted using the Actor-Partner Interdependence Model and relations were tested in terms of the spillover, crossover, and compensatory hypotheses. Results suggest that measures of family stress relate to supportive and nonsupportive parental responses, though many of these relations differ by parent gender. The results are discussed in terms of the 3 theoretical hypotheses, all of which are supported to some degree depending on the family stressor examined.

SPSS for applied sciences basic statistical testing

CERN Document Server

Davis, Cole

2013-01-01

This book offers a quick and basic guide to using SPSS and provides a general approach to solving problems using statistical tests. It is both comprehensive in terms of the tests covered and the applied settings it refers to, and yet is short and easy to understand. Whether you are a beginner or an intermediate level test user, this book will help you to analyse different types of data in applied settings. It will also give you the confidence to use other statistical software and to extend your expertise to more specific scientific settings as required.The author does not use mathematical form

Properties of hypothesis testing techniques and (Bayesian) model selection for exploration-based and theory-based (order-restricted) hypotheses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuiper, Rebecca M.; Nederhoff, Tim; Klugkist, Irene

2015-01-01

In this paper, the performance of six types of techniques for comparisons of means is examined. These six emerge from the distinction between the method employed (hypothesis testing, model selection using information criteria, or Bayesian model selection) and the set of hypotheses that is

A comparison of test statistics for the recovery of rapid growth-based enumeration tests

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Heuvel, Edwin R.; IJzerman-Boon, Pieta C.

This paper considers five test statistics for comparing the recovery of a rapid growth-based enumeration test with respect to the compendial microbiological method using a specific nonserial dilution experiment. The finite sample distributions of these test statistics are unknown, because they are

Distinguishing between statistical significance and practical/clinical meaningfulness using statistical inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilkinson, Michael

2014-03-01

Decisions about support for predictions of theories in light of data are made using statistical inference. The dominant approach in sport and exercise science is the Neyman-Pearson (N-P) significance-testing approach. When applied correctly it provides a reliable procedure for making dichotomous decisions for accepting or rejecting zero-effect null hypotheses with known and controlled long-run error rates. Type I and type II error rates must be specified in advance and the latter controlled by conducting an a priori sample size calculation. The N-P approach does not provide the probability of hypotheses or indicate the strength of support for hypotheses in light of data, yet many scientists believe it does. Outcomes of analyses allow conclusions only about the existence of non-zero effects, and provide no information about the likely size of true effects or their practical/clinical value. Bayesian inference can show how much support data provide for different hypotheses, and how personal convictions should be altered in light of data, but the approach is complicated by formulating probability distributions about prior subjective estimates of population effects. A pragmatic solution is magnitude-based inference, which allows scientists to estimate the true magnitude of population effects and how likely they are to exceed an effect magnitude of practical/clinical importance, thereby integrating elements of subjective Bayesian-style thinking. While this approach is gaining acceptance, progress might be hastened if scientists appreciate the shortcomings of traditional N-P null hypothesis significance testing.

Factors that encourage females to pursue physical science careers: Testing five common hypotheses

Science.gov (United States)

Hazari, Zahra; Potvin, Geoff; Lock, Robynne M.; Lung, Florin; Sadler, Philip M.; Sonnert, Gerhard

2012-03-01

There are many hypotheses regarding factors that may encourage female students to pursue careers in the physical sciences. Using Propensity Score Matching (PSM) on national data (n=7505) drawn from the Persistence Research in Science and Engineering (PRiSE) project, we test five commonly held beliefs including having a single-sex physics class, having a female physics teacher, having female scientist guest speakers in physics class, discussing the work of women scientists in physics class, and discussing the under-representation of women in physics class. The effect of these experiences is compared for female students who are matched on several factors, including parental education, prior science/math interests, and academic background, thereby controlling for the effect of many confounding variables.

Family Stress and Parental Responses to Children’s Negative Emotions: Tests of the Spillover, Crossover, and Compensatory Hypotheses

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Jackie A.; O’Brien, Marion; Blankson, A. Nayena; Calkins, Susan D.; Keane, Susan P.

2010-01-01

The relations between 4 sources of family stress (marital dissatisfaction, home chaos, parental depressive symptoms, and job role dissatisfaction) and the emotion socialization practice of mothers’ and fathers’ responses to children’s negative emotions were examined. Participants included 101 couples with 7-year-old children. Dyadic analyses were conducted using the Actor–Partner Interdependence Model and relations were tested in terms of the spillover, crossover, and compensatory hypotheses. Results suggest that measures of family stress relate to supportive and nonsupportive parental responses, though many of these relations differ by parent gender. The results are discussed in terms of the 3 theoretical hypotheses, all of which are supported to some degree depending on the family stressor examined. PMID:19803603

Substance use and misuse in burn patients: Testing the classical hypotheses of the interaction between post-traumatic symptomatology and substance use.

Science.gov (United States)

Eiroa-Orosa, Francisco Jose; Giannoni-Pastor, Anna; Fidel-Kinori, Sara Guila; Argüello, José María

2016-01-01

The authors aimed to test whether the three classical hypotheses of the interaction between post-traumatic symptomatology and substance use (high risk of trauma exposure, susceptibility for post-traumatic symptomatology, and self-medication of symptoms), may be useful in the understanding of substance use among burn patients. Substance use data (nicotine, alcohol, cannabis, amphetamines, cocaine, opiates, and tranquilizers) and psychopathology measures among burn patients admitted to a burn unit and enrolled in a longitudinal observational study were analyzed. Lifetime substance use information (n = 246) was incorporated to analyses aiming to test the high risk hypothesis. Only patients assessed for psychopathology in a 6-month follow-up (n = 183) were included in prospective analyses testing the susceptibility and self-medication hypotheses. Regarding the high risk hypothesis, results show a higher proportion of heroin and tranquilizer users compared to the general population. Furthermore, in line with the susceptibility hypothesis, higher levels of symptomatology were found in lifetime alcohol, tobacco, and drug users during recovery. The self-medication hypothesis could be tested partially due to the hospital stay "cleaning" effect, but severity of symptoms was linked to the amount of caffeine, nicotine, alcohol, and cannabis use after discharge. It was found that the 3 classical hypotheses could be used to understand the link between traumatic experiences and substance use explaining different patterns of burn patient's risk for trauma exposure and emergence of symptomatology.

An omnibus test for the global null hypothesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Futschik, Andreas; Taus, Thomas; Zehetmayer, Sonja

2018-01-01

Global hypothesis tests are a useful tool in the context of clinical trials, genetic studies, or meta-analyses, when researchers are not interested in testing individual hypotheses, but in testing whether none of the hypotheses is false. There are several possibilities how to test the global null hypothesis when the individual null hypotheses are independent. If it is assumed that many of the individual null hypotheses are false, combination tests have been recommended to maximize power. If, however, it is assumed that only one or a few null hypotheses are false, global tests based on individual test statistics are more powerful (e.g. Bonferroni or Simes test). However, usually there is no a priori knowledge on the number of false individual null hypotheses. We therefore propose an omnibus test based on cumulative sums of the transformed p-values. We show that this test yields an impressive overall performance. The proposed method is implemented in an R-package called omnibus.

Ensuring Positiveness of the Scaled Difference Chi-square Test Statistic.

Science.gov (United States)

Satorra, Albert; Bentler, Peter M

2010-06-01

A scaled difference test statistic [Formula: see text] that can be computed from standard software of structural equation models (SEM) by hand calculations was proposed in Satorra and Bentler (2001). The statistic [Formula: see text] is asymptotically equivalent to the scaled difference test statistic T̄(d) introduced in Satorra (2000), which requires more involved computations beyond standard output of SEM software. The test statistic [Formula: see text] has been widely used in practice, but in some applications it is negative due to negativity of its associated scaling correction. Using the implicit function theorem, this note develops an improved scaling correction leading to a new scaled difference statistic T̄(d) that avoids negative chi-square values.

Dental Hypotheses: Seeks to Publish Hypotheses from All Areas of Dentistry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edward F. Rossomando

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Starting a new open access journal in a rapid growing scientific panorama is a severe challenge. However, the first issue of dental hypotheses is now history and the even skeptics can appreciate that dental hypotheses is a success - it is a journal of high quality that provides an outlet for publication of articles that encourage readers to question dental paradigms. But dental hypotheses readers might have noticed that the majority of the articles published in the first issue of dental hypotheses concern clinical dentistry. However, dental hypotheses editors recognize that there are many other areas in dentistry that present challenges and that our readers may offer suggestions for their solution. Some of these challenges relate to: dental education; digital dental technology; teledentistry and access to dental care; dental practice issues, such as, dental office design, dental office management, the slow rate of acceptance of innovative technology in the dental office; and issues related to innovation and dental entrepreneurship including intellectual property protection. Nevertheless, the dental profession faces many challenges - in many areas - and with the publication of dental hypotheses our profession has a venue for presentation of possible solutions. If you have developed a hypothesis that might help, please share it with your colleagues. As many have noted, the intellectual power of the global village in which we now live is formidable. The internet has provided the technology to bring us together and dental hypotheses has provided the venue. Please use it. New radical, speculative and non-mainstream scientific ideas are always welcome.

Statistical analysis of hypotheses on the cointegrating relations in the I(2) model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Søren

2006-01-01

The cointegrated vector autoregressive model for I(2) variables is a non-linear parametric restriction on the linear I(2) regression model for variables of order I(0), I(1) and I(2). In this paper we discuss non-linear submodels given by smooth parametrizations. We give conditions on the parametr......) and the reformulation is applied to show that some hypotheses on the cointegrating coefficients in the cointegrated I(2) model give asymptotic ¿² inference....

Serial Learning Process: Test of Chaining, Position, and Dual-Process Hypotheses

Science.gov (United States)

Giurintano, S. L.

1973-01-01

The chaining, position, and dual-process hypotheses of serial learning (SL) as well as serial recall, reordering, and relearning of paired-associate learning were examined to establish learning patterns. Results provide evidence for dual-process hypothesis. (DS)

In silico generation of alternative hypotheses using causal mapping (CMAP.

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Gabriel E Weinreb

Full Text Available Previously, we introduced causal mapping (CMAP as an easy to use systems biology tool for studying the behavior of biological processes that occur at the cellular and molecular level. CMAP is a coarse-grained graphical modeling approach in which the system of interest is modeled as an interaction map between functional elements of the system, in a manner similar to portrayals of signaling pathways commonly used by molecular cell biologists. CMAP describes details of the interactions while maintaining the simplicity of other qualitative methods (e.g., Boolean networks.In this paper, we use the CMAP methodology as a tool for generating hypotheses about the mechanisms that regulate molecular and cellular systems. Furthermore, our approach allows competing hypotheses to be ranked according to a fitness index and suggests experimental tests to distinguish competing high fitness hypotheses. To motivate the CMAP as a hypotheses generating tool and demonstrate the methodology, we first apply this protocol to a simple test-case of a three-element signaling module. Our methods are next applied to the more complex phenomenon of cortical oscillations observed in spreading cells. This analysis produces two high fitness hypotheses for the mechanism that underlies this dynamic behavior and suggests experiments to distinguish the hypotheses. The method can be widely applied to other cellular systems to generate and compare alternative hypotheses based on experimentally observed data and using computer simulations.

Statistical tests for person misfit in computerized adaptive testing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Glas, Cornelis A.W.; Meijer, R.R.; van Krimpen-Stoop, Edith

1998-01-01

Recently, several person-fit statistics have been proposed to detect nonfitting response patterns. This study is designed to generalize an approach followed by Klauer (1995) to an adaptive testing system using the two-parameter logistic model (2PL) as a null model. The approach developed by Klauer

[Clinical research IV. Relevancy of the statistical test chosen].

Science.gov (United States)

Talavera, Juan O; Rivas-Ruiz, Rodolfo

2011-01-01

When we look at the difference between two therapies or the association of a risk factor or prognostic indicator with its outcome, we need to evaluate the accuracy of the result. This assessment is based on a judgment that uses information about the study design and statistical management of the information. This paper specifically mentions the relevance of the statistical test selected. Statistical tests are chosen mainly from two characteristics: the objective of the study and type of variables. The objective can be divided into three test groups: a) those in which you want to show differences between groups or inside a group before and after a maneuver, b) those that seek to show the relationship (correlation) between variables, and c) those that aim to predict an outcome. The types of variables are divided in two: quantitative (continuous and discontinuous) and qualitative (ordinal and dichotomous). For example, if we seek to demonstrate differences in age (quantitative variable) among patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) with and without neurological disease (two groups), the appropriate test is the "Student t test for independent samples." But if the comparison is about the frequency of females (binomial variable), then the appropriate statistical test is the χ(2).

Why Current Statistics of Complementary Alternative Medicine Clinical Trials is Invalid.

Science.gov (United States)

Pandolfi, Maurizio; Carreras, Giulia

2018-06-07

It is not sufficiently known that frequentist statistics cannot provide direct information on the probability that the research hypothesis tested is correct. The error resulting from this misunderstanding is compounded when the hypotheses under scrutiny have precarious scientific bases, which, generally, those of complementary alternative medicine (CAM) are. In such cases, it is mandatory to use inferential statistics, considering the prior probability that the hypothesis tested is true, such as the Bayesian statistics. The authors show that, under such circumstances, no real statistical significance can be achieved in CAM clinical trials. In this respect, CAM trials involving human material are also hardly defensible from an ethical viewpoint.

Statistical analysis and planning of multihundred-watt impact tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martz, H.F. Jr.; Waterman, M.S.

1977-10-01

Modular multihundred-watt (MHW) radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTG's) are used as a power source for spacecraft. Due to possible environmental contamination by radioactive materials, numerous tests are required to determine and verify the safety of the RTG. There are results available from 27 fueled MHW impact tests regarding hoop failure, fingerprint failure, and fuel failure. Data from the 27 tests are statistically analyzed for relationships that exist between the test design variables and the failure types. Next, these relationships are used to develop a statistical procedure for planning and conducting either future MHW impact tests or similar tests on other RTG fuel sources. Finally, some conclusions are given

A novel approach to generating CER hypotheses based on mining clinical data.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Shuo; Li, Lin; Yu, Yiqin; Sun, Xingzhi; Xu, Linhao; Zhao, Wei; Teng, Xiaofei; Pan, Yue

2013-01-01

Comparative effectiveness research (CER) is a scientific method of investigating the effectiveness of alternative intervention methods. In a CER study, clinical researchers typically start with a CER hypothesis, and aim to evaluate it by applying a series of medical statistical methods. Traditionally, the CER hypotheses are defined manually by clinical researchers. This makes the task of hypothesis generation very time-consuming and the quality of hypothesis heavily dependent on the researchers' skills. Recently, with more electronic medical data being collected, it is highly promising to apply the computerized method for discovering CER hypotheses from clinical data sets. In this poster, we proposes a novel approach to automatically generating CER hypotheses based on mining clinical data, and presents a case study showing that the approach can facilitate clinical researchers to identify potentially valuable hypotheses and eventually define high quality CER studies.

INFLUENCES ON AND FROM THE SEGMENTATION OF NETWORKS - HYPOTHESES AND TESTS

NARCIS (Netherlands)

BAERVELDT, C; SNIJDERS, T

This article discusses (a) the influence of network structure on the diffusion of (new) cultural behavior within the network and (b) the influence of external events, especially of social programs, on the diffusion of (new) cultural behavior, and on the network structure. Hypotheses are formulated

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics (in Geology)

Science.gov (United States)

Vermeesch, Pieter

2009-11-01

According to Karl Popper's epistemology of critical rationalism, scientists should formulate falsifiable hypotheses rather than produce ad hoc answers to empirical observations. In other words, we should predict and test rather than merely explain [Popper, 1959]. Sometimes, statistical tests such as chi-square, t, or Kolmogorov-Smirnov are used to make deductions more “objective.” Such tests are used in a wide range of geological subdisciplines [see Reimann and Filzmoser, 2000; Anderson and Johnson, 1999; Lørup et al., 1998; Sircombe and Hazelton, 2004].

Mechanistic Mathematical Modeling Tests Hypotheses of the Neurovascular Coupling in fMRI.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karin Lundengård

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI measures brain activity by detecting the blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD response to neural activity. The BOLD response depends on the neurovascular coupling, which connects cerebral blood flow, cerebral blood volume, and deoxyhemoglobin level to neuronal activity. The exact mechanisms behind this neurovascular coupling are not yet fully investigated. There are at least three different ways in which these mechanisms are being discussed. Firstly, mathematical models involving the so-called Balloon model describes the relation between oxygen metabolism, cerebral blood volume, and cerebral blood flow. However, the Balloon model does not describe cellular and biochemical mechanisms. Secondly, the metabolic feedback hypothesis, which is based on experimental findings on metabolism associated with brain activation, and thirdly, the neurotransmitter feed-forward hypothesis which describes intracellular pathways leading to vasoactive substance release. Both the metabolic feedback and the neurotransmitter feed-forward hypotheses have been extensively studied, but only experimentally. These two hypotheses have never been implemented as mathematical models. Here we investigate these two hypotheses by mechanistic mathematical modeling using a systems biology approach; these methods have been used in biological research for many years but never been applied to the BOLD response in fMRI. In the current work, model structures describing the metabolic feedback and the neurotransmitter feed-forward hypotheses were applied to measured BOLD responses in the visual cortex of 12 healthy volunteers. Evaluating each hypothesis separately shows that neither hypothesis alone can describe the data in a biologically plausible way. However, by adding metabolism to the neurotransmitter feed-forward model structure, we obtained a new model structure which is able to fit the estimation data and successfully predict new

Statistical tests to compare motif count exceptionalities

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Vandewalle Vincent

2007-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Finding over- or under-represented motifs in biological sequences is now a common task in genomics. Thanks to p-value calculation for motif counts, exceptional motifs are identified and represent candidate functional motifs. The present work addresses the related question of comparing the exceptionality of one motif in two different sequences. Just comparing the motif count p-values in each sequence is indeed not sufficient to decide if this motif is significantly more exceptional in one sequence compared to the other one. A statistical test is required. Results We develop and analyze two statistical tests, an exact binomial one and an asymptotic likelihood ratio test, to decide whether the exceptionality of a given motif is equivalent or significantly different in two sequences of interest. For that purpose, motif occurrences are modeled by Poisson processes, with a special care for overlapping motifs. Both tests can take the sequence compositions into account. As an illustration, we compare the octamer exceptionalities in the Escherichia coli K-12 backbone versus variable strain-specific loops. Conclusion The exact binomial test is particularly adapted for small counts. For large counts, we advise to use the likelihood ratio test which is asymptotic but strongly correlated with the exact binomial test and very simple to use.

Testing the statistical compatibility of independent data sets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maltoni, M.; Schwetz, T.

2003-01-01

We discuss a goodness-of-fit method which tests the compatibility between statistically independent data sets. The method gives sensible results even in cases where the χ 2 minima of the individual data sets are very low or when several parameters are fitted to a large number of data points. In particular, it avoids the problem that a possible disagreement between data sets becomes diluted by data points which are insensitive to the crucial parameters. A formal derivation of the probability distribution function for the proposed test statistics is given, based on standard theorems of statistics. The application of the method is illustrated on data from neutrino oscillation experiments, and its complementarity to the standard goodness-of-fit is discussed

HOW TO SELECT APPROPRIATE STATISTICAL TEST IN SCIENTIFIC ARTICLES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimir TRAJKOVSKI

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Statistics is mathematical science dealing with the collection, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of masses of numerical data in order to draw relevant conclusions. Statistics is a form of mathematical analysis that uses quantified models, representations and synopses for a given set of experimental data or real-life studies. The students and young researchers in biomedical sciences and in special education and rehabilitation often declare that they have chosen to enroll that study program because they have lack of knowledge or interest in mathematics. This is a sad statement, but there is much truth in it. The aim of this editorial is to help young researchers to select statistics or statistical techniques and statistical software appropriate for the purposes and conditions of a particular analysis. The most important statistical tests are reviewed in the article. Knowing how to choose right statistical test is an important asset and decision in the research data processing and in the writing of scientific papers. Young researchers and authors should know how to choose and how to use statistical methods. The competent researcher will need knowledge in statistical procedures. That might include an introductory statistics course, and it most certainly includes using a good statistics textbook. For this purpose, there is need to return of Statistics mandatory subject in the curriculum of the Institute of Special Education and Rehabilitation at Faculty of Philosophy in Skopje. Young researchers have a need of additional courses in statistics. They need to train themselves to use statistical software on appropriate way.

Learning Psychological Research and Statistical Concepts using Retrieval-based Practice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen Wee Hun eLim

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Research methods and statistics are an indispensable subject in the undergraduate psychology curriculum, but there are challenges associated with teaching it, such as making learning durable. Here we hypothesized that retrieval-based learning promotes long-term retention of statistical knowledge in psychology. Participants either studied the educational material in four consecutive periods, or studied it just once and practised retrieving the information in the subsequent three periods, and then took a final test through which their learning was assessed. Whereas repeated studying yielded better test performance when the final test was immediately administered, repeated practice yielded better performance when the test was administered a week after. The data suggest that retrieval practice enhanced the learning – produced better long-term retention – of statistical knowledge in psychology than did repeated studying.

Monte Carlo testing in spatial statistics, with applications to spatial residuals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mrkvička, Tomáš; Soubeyrand, Samuel; Myllymäki, Mari

2016-01-01

This paper reviews recent advances made in testing in spatial statistics and discussed at the Spatial Statistics conference in Avignon 2015. The rank and directional quantile envelope tests are discussed and practical rules for their use are provided. These tests are global envelope tests...... with an appropriate type I error probability. Two novel examples are given on their usage. First, in addition to the test based on a classical one-dimensional summary function, the goodness-of-fit of a point process model is evaluated by means of the test based on a higher dimensional functional statistic, namely...

Kolmogorov complexity, pseudorandom generators and statistical models testing

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Šindelář, Jan; Boček, Pavel

2002-01-01

Roč. 38, č. 6 (2002), s. 747-759 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/99/1564 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : Kolmogorov complexity * pseudorandom generators * statistical models testing Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.341, year: 2002

statistical tests for frequency distribution of mean gravity anomalies

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ES Obe

1980-03-01

Mar 1, 1980 ... STATISTICAL TESTS FOR FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION OF MEAN. GRAVITY ANOMALIES. By ... approach. Kaula [1,2] discussed the method of applying statistical techniques in the ..... mathematical foundation of physical ...

Understanding the Sampling Distribution and Its Use in Testing Statistical Significance.

Science.gov (United States)

Breunig, Nancy A.

Despite the increasing criticism of statistical significance testing by researchers, particularly in the publication of the 1994 American Psychological Association's style manual, statistical significance test results are still popular in journal articles. For this reason, it remains important to understand the logic of inferential statistics. A…

A weighted generalized score statistic for comparison of predictive values of diagnostic tests.

Science.gov (United States)

Kosinski, Andrzej S

2013-03-15

Positive and negative predictive values are important measures of a medical diagnostic test performance. We consider testing equality of two positive or two negative predictive values within a paired design in which all patients receive two diagnostic tests. The existing statistical tests for testing equality of predictive values are either Wald tests based on the multinomial distribution or the empirical Wald and generalized score tests within the generalized estimating equations (GEE) framework. As presented in the literature, these test statistics have considerably complex formulas without clear intuitive insight. We propose their re-formulations that are mathematically equivalent but algebraically simple and intuitive. As is clearly seen with a new re-formulation we presented, the generalized score statistic does not always reduce to the commonly used score statistic in the independent samples case. To alleviate this, we introduce a weighted generalized score (WGS) test statistic that incorporates empirical covariance matrix with newly proposed weights. This statistic is simple to compute, always reduces to the score statistic in the independent samples situation, and preserves type I error better than the other statistics as demonstrated by simulations. Thus, we believe that the proposed WGS statistic is the preferred statistic for testing equality of two predictive values and for corresponding sample size computations. The new formulas of the Wald statistics may be useful for easy computation of confidence intervals for difference of predictive values. The introduced concepts have potential to lead to development of the WGS test statistic in a general GEE setting. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Science from evaluation: testing hypotheses about differential effects of three youth-focused suicide prevention trainings.

Science.gov (United States)

Coleman, Daniel; Del Quest, Aisling

2015-01-01

As part of an evaluation component of a youth suicide prevention, a quasi-experimental repeated measures design tested hypotheses about two brief suicide prevention gatekeeper trainings (Question, Persuade, Refer [QPR] and RESPONSE) and one longer suicide intervention skills training (Applied Suicide Intervention Skills Training [ASIST]). All three trainings showed large changes in prevention attitudes and self-efficacy, largely maintained at follow-up. ASIST trainees had large increases in asking at-risk youth about suicide at follow-up. Convergent with other research, modeling and role-play in training are crucial to increased prevention behaviors. Practice and research implications are discussed, including social work roles in suicide prevention and research.

Statistical inferences for bearings life using sudden death test

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Morariu Cristin-Olimpiu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we propose a calculus method for reliability indicators estimation and a complete statistical inferences for three parameters Weibull distribution of bearings life. Using experimental values regarding the durability of bearings tested on stands by the sudden death tests involves a series of particularities of the estimation using maximum likelihood method and statistical inference accomplishment. The paper detailing these features and also provides an example calculation.

An alternative approach to absolute-value test for the parameters of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

An alternative approach to absolute-value test statistic Mn is developed for conducting tests simultaneously on all the parameters of multiple linear regression models. Under certain null and alternative hypotheses, the new test statistic is shown to have limiting central and noncentral chisquare distributions, respectively.

Selecting the most appropriate inferential statistical test for your quantitative research study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bettany-Saltikov, Josette; Whittaker, Victoria Jane

2014-06-01

To discuss the issues and processes relating to the selection of the most appropriate statistical test. A review of the basic research concepts together with a number of clinical scenarios is used to illustrate this. Quantitative nursing research generally features the use of empirical data which necessitates the selection of both descriptive and statistical tests. Different types of research questions can be answered by different types of research designs, which in turn need to be matched to a specific statistical test(s). Discursive paper. This paper discusses the issues relating to the selection of the most appropriate statistical test and makes some recommendations as to how these might be dealt with. When conducting empirical quantitative studies, a number of key issues need to be considered. Considerations for selecting the most appropriate statistical tests are discussed and flow charts provided to facilitate this process. When nursing clinicians and researchers conduct quantitative research studies, it is crucial that the most appropriate statistical test is selected to enable valid conclusions to be made. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Testing the Difference of Correlated Agreement Coefficients for Statistical Significance

Science.gov (United States)

Gwet, Kilem L.

2016-01-01

This article addresses the problem of testing the difference between two correlated agreement coefficients for statistical significance. A number of authors have proposed methods for testing the difference between two correlated kappa coefficients, which require either the use of resampling methods or the use of advanced statistical modeling…

Do macroeconomic contractions induce or 'harvest' suicides? A test of competing hypotheses.

Science.gov (United States)

Gemmill, Alison; Falconi, April; Karasek, Deborah; Hartig, Terry; Anderson, Elizabeth; Catalano, Ralph

2015-11-01

Researchers often invoke a mortality displacement or 'harvesting' mechanism to explain mortality patterns, such that those with underlying health vulnerabilities die sooner than expected in response to environmental phenomena, such as heat waves, cold spells and air pollution. It is unclear if this displacement mechanism might also explain observed increases in suicide following economic contraction, or if suicides are induced in persons otherwise unlikely to engage in self-destructive behaviour. Here, we test two competing hypotheses explaining an observed increase in suicides following unemployment-induction or displacement. We apply time series methods to monthly suicide and unemployment data from Sweden for the years 2000-2011. Tests are conducted separately for working age (20-64 years old) men and women as well as older (aged 65 years and older) men and women. Displacement appeared among older men and women; an unexpected rise in unemployment predicted an increase in suicides 6 months later, followed by a significant decrease 8 months later. Induction appeared among working age men, but not among working age women; an unexpected rise in unemployment predicted an increase in suicides 4-6 months later. Displacement and induction both appear to have operated following unexpected labour market contractions in Sweden, though with different population segments. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Statistical process control in nursing research.

Science.gov (United States)

Polit, Denise F; Chaboyer, Wendy

2012-02-01

In intervention studies in which randomization to groups is not possible, researchers typically use quasi-experimental designs. Time series designs are strong quasi-experimental designs but are seldom used, perhaps because of technical and analytic hurdles. Statistical process control (SPC) is an alternative analytic approach to testing hypotheses about intervention effects using data collected over time. SPC, like traditional statistical methods, is a tool for understanding variation and involves the construction of control charts that distinguish between normal, random fluctuations (common cause variation), and statistically significant special cause variation that can result from an innovation. The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of SPC and to illustrate its use in a study of a nursing practice improvement intervention. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Statistical data processing with automatic system for environmental radiation monitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zarkh, V.G.; Ostroglyadov, S.V.

1986-01-01

Practice of statistical data processing for radiation monitoring is exemplified, and some results obtained are presented. Experience in practical application of mathematical statistics methods for radiation monitoring data processing allowed to develop a concrete algorithm of statistical processing realized in M-6000 minicomputer. The suggested algorithm by its content is divided into 3 parts: parametrical data processing and hypotheses test, pair and multiple correlation analysis. Statistical processing programms are in a dialogue operation. The above algorithm was used to process observed data over radioactive waste disposal control region. Results of surface waters monitoring processing are presented

On the use of uncertainty analyses to test hypotheses regarding deterministic model predictions of environmental processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, R.O.; Bittner, E.A.; Essington, E.H.

1995-01-01

This paper illustrates the use of Monte Carlo parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to test hypotheses regarding predictions of deterministic models of environmental transport, dose, risk and other phenomena. The methodology is illustrated by testing whether 238 Pu is transferred more readily than 239+240 Pu from the gastrointestinal (GI) tract of cattle to their tissues (muscle, liver and blood). This illustration is based on a study wherein beef-cattle grazed for up to 1064 days on a fenced plutonium (Pu)-contaminated arid site in Area 13 near the Nevada Test Site in the United States. Periodically, cattle were sacrificed and their tissues analyzed for Pu and other radionuclides. Conditional sensitivity analyses of the model predictions were also conducted. These analyses indicated that Pu cattle tissue concentrations had the largest impact of any model parameter on the pdf of predicted Pu fractional transfers. Issues that arise in conducting uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of deterministic models are discussed. (author)

Statistical Estimation of Heterogeneities: A New Frontier in Well Testing

Science.gov (United States)

Neuman, S. P.; Guadagnini, A.; Illman, W. A.; Riva, M.; Vesselinov, V. V.

2001-12-01

Well-testing methods have traditionally relied on analytical solutions of groundwater flow equations in relatively simple domains, consisting of one or at most a few units having uniform hydraulic properties. Recently, attention has been shifting toward methods and solutions that would allow one to characterize subsurface heterogeneities in greater detail. On one hand, geostatistical inverse methods are being used to assess the spatial variability of parameters, such as permeability and porosity, on the basis of multiple cross-hole pressure interference tests. On the other hand, analytical solutions are being developed to describe the mean and variance (first and second statistical moments) of flow to a well in a randomly heterogeneous medium. Geostatistical inverse interpretation of cross-hole tests yields a smoothed but detailed "tomographic" image of how parameters actually vary in three-dimensional space, together with corresponding measures of estimation uncertainty. Moment solutions may soon allow one to interpret well tests in terms of statistical parameters such as the mean and variance of log permeability, its spatial autocorrelation and statistical anisotropy. The idea of geostatistical cross-hole tomography is illustrated through pneumatic injection tests conducted in unsaturated fractured tuff at the Apache Leap Research Site near Superior, Arizona. The idea of using moment equations to interpret well-tests statistically is illustrated through a recently developed three-dimensional solution for steady state flow to a well in a bounded, randomly heterogeneous, statistically anisotropic aquifer.

How do trees die? A test of the hydraulic failure and carbon starvation hypotheses

Science.gov (United States)

Sevanto, Sanna; Mcdowell, Nate G; Dickman, L Turin; Pangle, Robert; Pockman, William T

2014-01-01

Despite decades of research on plant drought tolerance, the physiological mechanisms by which trees succumb to drought are still under debate. We report results from an experiment designed to separate and test the current leading hypotheses of tree mortality. We show that piñon pine (Pinus edulis) trees can die of both hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, and that during drought, the loss of conductivity and carbohydrate reserves can also co-occur. Hydraulic constraints on plant carbohydrate use determined survival time: turgor loss in the phloem limited access to carbohydrate reserves, but hydraulic control of respiration prolonged survival. Our data also demonstrate that hydraulic failure may be associated with loss of adequate tissue carbohydrate content required for osmoregulation, which then promotes failure to maintain hydraulic integrity. PMID:23730972

A Third Moment Adjusted Test Statistic for Small Sample Factor Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Johnny; Bentler, Peter M

2012-01-01

Goodness of fit testing in factor analysis is based on the assumption that the test statistic is asymptotically chi-square; but this property may not hold in small samples even when the factors and errors are normally distributed in the population. Robust methods such as Browne's asymptotically distribution-free method and Satorra Bentler's mean scaling statistic were developed under the presumption of non-normality in the factors and errors. This paper finds new application to the case where factors and errors are normally distributed in the population but the skewness of the obtained test statistic is still high due to sampling error in the observed indicators. An extension of Satorra Bentler's statistic is proposed that not only scales the mean but also adjusts the degrees of freedom based on the skewness of the obtained test statistic in order to improve its robustness under small samples. A simple simulation study shows that this third moment adjusted statistic asymptotically performs on par with previously proposed methods, and at a very small sample size offers superior Type I error rates under a properly specified model. Data from Mardia, Kent and Bibby's study of students tested for their ability in five content areas that were either open or closed book were used to illustrate the real-world performance of this statistic.

688,112 statistical results : Content mining psychology articles for statistical test results

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hartgerink, C.H.J.

2016-01-01

In this data deposit, I describe a dataset that is the result of content mining 167,318 published articles for statistical test results reported according to the standards prescribed by the American Psychological Association (APA). Articles published by the APA, Springer, Sage, and Taylor & Francis

EVALUATION OF A NEW MEAN SCALED AND MOMENT ADJUSTED TEST STATISTIC FOR SEM.

Science.gov (United States)

Tong, Xiaoxiao; Bentler, Peter M

2013-01-01

Recently a new mean scaled and skewness adjusted test statistic was developed for evaluating structural equation models in small samples and with potentially nonnormal data, but this statistic has received only limited evaluation. The performance of this statistic is compared to normal theory maximum likelihood and two well-known robust test statistics. A modification to the Satorra-Bentler scaled statistic is developed for the condition that sample size is smaller than degrees of freedom. The behavior of the four test statistics is evaluated with a Monte Carlo confirmatory factor analysis study that varies seven sample sizes and three distributional conditions obtained using Headrick's fifth-order transformation to nonnormality. The new statistic performs badly in most conditions except under the normal distribution. The goodness-of-fit χ(2) test based on maximum-likelihood estimation performed well under normal distributions as well as under a condition of asymptotic robustness. The Satorra-Bentler scaled test statistic performed best overall, while the mean scaled and variance adjusted test statistic outperformed the others at small and moderate sample sizes under certain distributional conditions.

Computer-mediated communication and interpersonal attraction: an experimental test of two explanatory hypotheses.

Science.gov (United States)

Antheunis, Marjolijn L; Valkenburg, Patti M; Peter, Jochen

2007-12-01

The aims of this study were (a) to investigate the influence of computer-mediated communication (CMC) on interpersonal attraction and (b) to examine two underlying processes in the CMC-interpersonal attraction relationship. We identified two variables that may mediate the influence of CMC on interpersonal attraction: self-disclosure and direct questioning. Focusing on these potential mediating variables, we tested two explanatory hypotheses: the CMC-induced direct questioning hypothesis and the CMC-induced self-disclosure hypothesis. Eighty-one cross-sex dyads were randomly assigned to one of three experimental conditions: text-only CMC, visual CMC, and face-to-face communication. We did not find a direct effect of CMC on interpersonal attraction. However, we did find two positive indirect effects of text-only CMC on interpersonal attraction: text-only CMC stimulated both self-disclosure and direct questioning, both of which in turn enhanced interpersonal attraction. Results are discussed in light of uncertainty reduction theory and CMC theories.

Quantitative analysis of dental microwear in hadrosaurid dinosaurs, and the implications for hypotheses of jaw mechanics and feeding

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Vincent S.; Barrett, Paul M.; Purnell, Mark A.

2009-01-01

Understanding the feeding mechanisms and diet of nonavian dinosaurs is fundamental to understanding the paleobiology of these taxa and their role in Mesozoic terrestrial ecosystems. Various methods, including biomechanical analysis and 3D computer modeling, have been used to generate detailed functional hypotheses, but in the absence of either direct observations of dinosaur feeding behavior, or close living functional analogues, testing these hypotheses is problematic. Microscopic scratches that form on teeth in vivo during feeding are known to record the relative motion of the tooth rows to each other during feeding and to capture evidence of tooth–food interactions. Analysis of this dental microwear provides a powerful tool for testing hypotheses of jaw mechanics, diet, and trophic niche; yet, quantitative analysis of microwear in dinosaurs has not been attempted. Here, we show that analysis of tooth microwear orientation provides direct evidence for the relative motions of jaws during feeding in hadrosaurid ornithopods, the dominant terrestrial herbivores of the Late Cretaceous. Statistical testing demonstrates that Edmontosaurus teeth preserve 4 distinct sets of scratches in different orientations. In terms of jaw mechanics, these data indicate an isognathic, near-vertical posterodorsal power stroke during feeding; near-vertical jaw opening; and propalinal movements in near anterior and near posterior directions. Our analysis supports the presence of a pleurokinetic hinge, and the straightness and parallelism of scratches indicate a tightly controlled occlusion. The dominance of scratched microwear fabrics suggests that Edmontosaurus was a grazer rather than a browser. PMID:19564603

CUSUM-based person-fit statistics for adaptive testing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Krimpen-Stoop, Edith; Meijer, R.R.

2001-01-01

Item scores that do not fit an assumed item response theory model may cause the latent trait value to be inaccurately estimated. Several person-fit statistics for detecting nonfitting score patterns for paper-and-pencil tests have been proposed. In the context of computerized adaptive tests (CAT),

CUSUM-based person-fit statistics for adaptive testing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Krimpen-Stoop, Edith; Meijer, R.R.

1999-01-01

Item scores that do not fit an assumed item response theory model may cause the latent trait value to be estimated inaccurately. Several person-fit statistics for detecting nonfitting score patterns for paper-and-pencil tests have been proposed. In the context of computerized adaptive tests (CAT),

Statistical test of anarchy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gouvea, Andre de; Murayama, Hitoshi

2003-01-01

'Anarchy' is the hypothesis that there is no fundamental distinction among the three flavors of neutrinos. It describes the mixing angles as random variables, drawn from well-defined probability distributions dictated by the group Haar measure. We perform a Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistical test to verify whether anarchy is consistent with all neutrino data, including the new result presented by KamLAND. We find a KS probability for Nature's choice of mixing angles equal to 64%, quite consistent with the anarchical hypothesis. In turn, assuming that anarchy is indeed correct, we compute lower bounds on vertical bar U e3 vertical bar 2 , the remaining unknown 'angle' of the leptonic mixing matrix

Corrections of the NIST Statistical Test Suite for Randomness

OpenAIRE

Kim, Song-Ju; Umeno, Ken; Hasegawa, Akio

2004-01-01

It is well known that the NIST statistical test suite was used for the evaluation of AES candidate algorithms. We have found that the test setting of Discrete Fourier Transform test and Lempel-Ziv test of this test suite are wrong. We give four corrections of mistakes in the test settings. This suggests that re-evaluation of the test results should be needed.

Teaching the Fluctuation Test "In Silico" by Using Mutate: A Program to Distinguish between the Adaptive and Spontaneous Mutation Hypotheses

Science.gov (United States)

Carvajal-Rodriguez, Antonio

2012-01-01

Mutate is a program developed for teaching purposes to impart a virtual laboratory class for undergraduate students of Genetics in Biology. The program emulates the so-called fluctuation test whose aim is to distinguish between spontaneous and adaptive mutation hypotheses in bacteria. The plan is to train students in certain key multidisciplinary…

Nonparametric tests for censored data

CERN Document Server

Bagdonavicus, Vilijandas; Nikulin, Mikhail

2013-01-01

This book concerns testing hypotheses in non-parametric models. Generalizations of many non-parametric tests to the case of censored and truncated data are considered. Most of the test results are proved and real applications are illustrated using examples. Theories and exercises are provided. The incorrect use of many tests applying most statistical software is highlighted and discussed.

Statistical alignment: computational properties, homology testing and goodness-of-fit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hein, J; Wiuf, Carsten; Møller, Martin

2000-01-01

The model of insertions and deletions in biological sequences, first formulated by Thorne, Kishino, and Felsenstein in 1991 (the TKF91 model), provides a basis for performing alignment within a statistical framework. Here we investigate this model.Firstly, we show how to accelerate the statistical...... alignment algorithms several orders of magnitude. The main innovations are to confine likelihood calculations to a band close to the similarity based alignment, to get good initial guesses of the evolutionary parameters and to apply an efficient numerical optimisation algorithm for finding the maximum...... analysis.Secondly, we propose a new homology test based on this model, where homology means that an ancestor to a sequence pair can be found finitely far back in time. This test has statistical advantages relative to the traditional shuffle test for proteins.Finally, we describe a goodness-of-fit test...

Academic Training: Telling the truth with statistics

CERN Multimedia

Françoise Benz

2005-01-01

2004-2005 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 21, 22, 23, 24 & 25 February from 11.00 to 12.00 hrs - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Telling the truth with statistics by G. D'Agostini / NFN, Roma, Italy The issue of evaluating and expressing the uncertainty in measurements, as well as that of testing hypotheses, is reviewed, with particular emphasis on the frontier cases typical of particle physics experiments. Fundamental aspects of probability will be addressed and the applications, solely based on probability theory, will cover several topics of practical interest, including counting experiments, upper/lower bounds, systematic errors, fits and comparison of hypotheses. ENSEIGNEMENT ACADEMIQUE ACADEMIC TRAINING Françoise Benz 73127 academic.training@cern.ch

Statistical treatment of fatigue test data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raske, D.T.

1980-01-01

This report discussed several aspects of fatigue data analysis in order to provide a basis for the development of statistically sound design curves. Included is a discussion on the choice of the dependent variable, the assumptions associated with least squares regression models, the variability of fatigue data, the treatment of data from suspended tests and outlying observations, and various strain-life relations

Teaching the fluctuation test in silico by using mutate: a program to distinguish between the adaptive and spontaneous mutation hypotheses.

Science.gov (United States)

Carvajal-Rodríguez, Antonio

2012-07-01

Mutate is a program developed for teaching purposes to impart a virtual laboratory class for undergraduate students of Genetics in Biology. The program emulates the so-called fluctuation test whose aim is to distinguish between spontaneous and adaptive mutation hypotheses in bacteria. The plan is to train students in certain key multidisciplinary aspects of current genetics such as sequence databases, DNA mutations, and hypothesis testing, while introducing the fluctuation test. This seminal experiment was originally performed studying Escherichia coli resistance to the infection by bacteriophage T1. The fluctuation test initiated the modern bacterial genetics that 25 years later ushered in the era of the recombinant DNA. Nowadays we know that some deletions in fhuA, the gene responsible for E. coli membrane receptor of T1, could cause the E. coli resistance to this phage. For the sake of simplicity, we will introduce the assumption that a single mutation generates the resistance to T1. During the practical, the students use the program to download some fhuA gene sequences, manually introduce some stop codon mutations, and design a fluctuation test to obtain data for distinguishing between preadaptative (spontaneous) and induced (adaptive) mutation hypotheses. The program can be launched from a browser or, if preferred, its executable file can be downloaded from http://webs.uvigo.es/acraaj/MutateWeb/Mutate.html. It requires the Java 5.0 (or higher) Runtime Environment (freely available at http://www.java.com). Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Comparing statistical tests for detecting soil contamination greater than background

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hardin, J.W.; Gilbert, R.O.

1993-12-01

The Washington State Department of Ecology (WSDE) recently issued a report that provides guidance on statistical issues regarding investigation and cleanup of soil and groundwater contamination under the Model Toxics Control Act Cleanup Regulation. Included in the report are procedures for determining a background-based cleanup standard and for conducting a 3-step statistical test procedure to decide if a site is contaminated greater than the background standard. The guidance specifies that the State test should only be used if the background and site data are lognormally distributed. The guidance in WSDE allows for using alternative tests on a site-specific basis if prior approval is obtained from WSDE. This report presents the results of a Monte Carlo computer simulation study conducted to evaluate the performance of the State test and several alternative tests for various contamination scenarios (background and site data distributions). The primary test performance criteria are (1) the probability the test will indicate that a contaminated site is indeed contaminated, and (2) the probability that the test will indicate an uncontaminated site is contaminated. The simulation study was conducted assuming the background concentrations were from lognormal or Weibull distributions. The site data were drawn from distributions selected to represent various contamination scenarios. The statistical tests studied are the State test, t test, Satterthwaite's t test, five distribution-free tests, and several tandem tests (wherein two or more tests are conducted using the same data set)

The Ranschburg Effect: Tests of the Guessing-Bias and Proactive Interference Hypotheses

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, Michael F.; Schwartz, Marian

1977-01-01

The guessing-bias and proactive interference hypotheses of the Ranschburg Effect were investigated by giving three groups different instructions as to guessing during recall. Results failed to support the prediction that the effect should be reduced or eliminated on shift trials. Neither hypothesis received significant support. (CHK)

Robustness of S1 statistic with Hodges-Lehmann for skewed distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Ahad, Nor Aishah; Yahaya, Sharipah Soaad Syed; Yin, Lee Ping

2016-10-01

Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is a common use parametric method to test the differences in means for more than two groups when the populations are normally distributed. ANOVA is highly inefficient under the influence of non- normal and heteroscedastic settings. When the assumptions are violated, researchers are looking for alternative such as Kruskal-Wallis under nonparametric or robust method. This study focused on flexible method, S1 statistic for comparing groups using median as the location estimator. S1 statistic was modified by substituting the median with Hodges-Lehmann and the default scale estimator with the variance of Hodges-Lehmann and MADn to produce two different test statistics for comparing groups. Bootstrap method was used for testing the hypotheses since the sampling distributions of these modified S1 statistics are unknown. The performance of the proposed statistic in terms of Type I error was measured and compared against the original S1 statistic, ANOVA and Kruskal-Wallis. The propose procedures show improvement compared to the original statistic especially under extremely skewed distribution.

Testing and qualification of confidence in statistical procedures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Serghiuta, D.; Tholammakkil, J.; Hammouda, N. [Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (Canada); O' Hagan, A. [Sheffield Univ. (United Kingdom)

2014-07-01

This paper discusses a framework for designing artificial test problems, evaluation criteria, and two of the benchmark tests developed under a research project initiated by the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission to investigate the approaches for qualification of tolerance limit methods and algorithms proposed for application in optimization of CANDU regional/neutron overpower protection trip setpoints for aged conditions. A significant component of this investigation has been the development of a series of benchmark problems of gradually increased complexity, from simple 'theoretical' problems up to complex problems closer to the real application. The first benchmark problem discussed in this paper is a simplified scalar problem which does not involve extremal, maximum or minimum, operations, typically encountered in the real applications. The second benchmark is a high dimensional, but still simple, problem for statistical inference of maximum channel power during normal operation. Bayesian algorithms have been developed for each benchmark problem to provide an independent way of constructing tolerance limits from the same data and allow assessing how well different methods make use of those data and, depending on the type of application, evaluating what the level of 'conservatism' is. The Bayesian method is not, however, used as a reference method, or 'gold' standard, but simply as an independent review method. The approach and the tests developed can be used as a starting point for developing a generic suite (generic in the sense of potentially applying whatever the proposed statistical method) of empirical studies, with clear criteria for passing those tests. Some lessons learned, in particular concerning the need to assure the completeness of the description of the application and the role of completeness of input information, are also discussed. It is concluded that a formal process which includes extended and detailed benchmark

Test for the statistical significance of differences between ROC curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Metz, C.E.; Kronman, H.B.

1979-01-01

A test for the statistical significance of observed differences between two measured Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves has been designed and evaluated. The set of observer response data for each ROC curve is assumed to be independent and to arise from a ROC curve having a form which, in the absence of statistical fluctuations in the response data, graphs as a straight line on double normal-deviate axes. To test the significance of an apparent difference between two measured ROC curves, maximum likelihood estimates of the two parameters of each curve and the associated parameter variances and covariance are calculated from the corresponding set of observer response data. An approximate Chi-square statistic with two degrees of freedom is then constructed from the differences between the parameters estimated for each ROC curve and from the variances and covariances of these estimates. This statistic is known to be truly Chi-square distributed only in the limit of large numbers of trials in the observer performance experiments. Performance of the statistic for data arising from a limited number of experimental trials was evaluated. Independent sets of rating scale data arising from the same underlying ROC curve were paired, and the fraction of differences found (falsely) significant was compared to the significance level, α, used with the test. Although test performance was found to be somewhat dependent on both the number of trials in the data and the position of the underlying ROC curve in the ROC space, the results for various significance levels showed the test to be reliable under practical experimental conditions

Statistical Power in Plant Pathology Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Gent, David H; Esker, Paul D; Kriss, Alissa B

2018-01-01

In null hypothesis testing, failure to reject a null hypothesis may have two potential interpretations. One interpretation is that the treatments being evaluated do not have a significant effect, and a correct conclusion was reached in the analysis. Alternatively, a treatment effect may have existed but the conclusion of the study was that there was none. This is termed a Type II error, which is most likely to occur when studies lack sufficient statistical power to detect a treatment effect. In basic terms, the power of a study is the ability to identify a true effect through a statistical test. The power of a statistical test is 1 - (the probability of Type II errors), and depends on the size of treatment effect (termed the effect size), variance, sample size, and significance criterion (the probability of a Type I error, α). Low statistical power is prevalent in scientific literature in general, including plant pathology. However, power is rarely reported, creating uncertainty in the interpretation of nonsignificant results and potentially underestimating small, yet biologically significant relationships. The appropriate level of power for a study depends on the impact of Type I versus Type II errors and no single level of power is acceptable for all purposes. Nonetheless, by convention 0.8 is often considered an acceptable threshold and studies with power less than 0.5 generally should not be conducted if the results are to be conclusive. The emphasis on power analysis should be in the planning stages of an experiment. Commonly employed strategies to increase power include increasing sample sizes, selecting a less stringent threshold probability for Type I errors, increasing the hypothesized or detectable effect size, including as few treatment groups as possible, reducing measurement variability, and including relevant covariates in analyses. Power analysis will lead to more efficient use of resources and more precisely structured hypotheses, and may even

Normality Tests for Statistical Analysis: A Guide for Non-Statisticians

Science.gov (United States)

Ghasemi, Asghar; Zahediasl, Saleh

2012-01-01

Statistical errors are common in scientific literature and about 50% of the published articles have at least one error. The assumption of normality needs to be checked for many statistical procedures, namely parametric tests, because their validity depends on it. The aim of this commentary is to overview checking for normality in statistical analysis using SPSS. PMID:23843808

Educational Transitions in Israel: A Test of the Industrialization and Credentialism Hypotheses.

Science.gov (United States)

Shavit, Yossi; Kraus, Vered

1990-01-01

Explores the industrialization and credentialism hypotheses and predictions of educational attainment levels. Finds the effects of the father's education and occupation were stable for those attending school in the 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s. Notes that the effects of ethnicity declined in the transition from primary to secondary school. (NL)

Probability, statistics, and associated computing techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

James, F.

1983-01-01

This chapter attempts to explore the extent to which it is possible for the experimental physicist to find optimal statistical techniques to provide a unique and unambiguous quantitative measure of the significance of raw data. Discusses statistics as the inverse of probability; normal theory of parameter estimation; normal theory (Gaussian measurements); the universality of the Gaussian distribution; real-life resolution functions; combination and propagation of uncertainties; the sum or difference of 2 variables; local theory, or the propagation of small errors; error on the ratio of 2 discrete variables; the propagation of large errors; confidence intervals; classical theory; Bayesian theory; use of the likelihood function; the second derivative of the log-likelihood function; multiparameter confidence intervals; the method of MINOS; least squares; the Gauss-Markov theorem; maximum likelihood for uniform error distribution; the Chebyshev fit; the parameter uncertainties; the efficiency of the Chebyshev estimator; error symmetrization; robustness vs. efficiency; testing of hypotheses (e.g., the Neyman-Pearson test); goodness-of-fit; distribution-free tests; comparing two one-dimensional distributions; comparing multidimensional distributions; and permutation tests for comparing two point sets

Comparison of small n statistical tests of differential expression applied to microarrays

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lee Anna Y

2009-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background DNA microarrays provide data for genome wide patterns of expression between observation classes. Microarray studies often have small samples sizes, however, due to cost constraints or specimen availability. This can lead to poor random error estimates and inaccurate statistical tests of differential expression. We compare the performance of the standard t-test, fold change, and four small n statistical test methods designed to circumvent these problems. We report results of various normalization methods for empirical microarray data and of various random error models for simulated data. Results Three Empirical Bayes methods (CyberT, BRB, and limma t-statistics were the most effective statistical tests across simulated and both 2-colour cDNA and Affymetrix experimental data. The CyberT regularized t-statistic in particular was able to maintain expected false positive rates with simulated data showing high variances at low gene intensities, although at the cost of low true positive rates. The Local Pooled Error (LPE test introduced a bias that lowered false positive rates below theoretically expected values and had lower power relative to the top performers. The standard two-sample t-test and fold change were also found to be sub-optimal for detecting differentially expressed genes. The generalized log transformation was shown to be beneficial in improving results with certain data sets, in particular high variance cDNA data. Conclusion Pre-processing of data influences performance and the proper combination of pre-processing and statistical testing is necessary for obtaining the best results. All three Empirical Bayes methods assessed in our study are good choices for statistical tests for small n microarray studies for both Affymetrix and cDNA data. Choice of method for a particular study will depend on software and normalization preferences.

A critique of statistical hypothesis testing in clinical research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Somik Raha

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Many have documented the difficulty of using the current paradigm of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs to test and validate the effectiveness of alternative medical systems such as Ayurveda. This paper critiques the applicability of RCTs for all clinical knowledge-seeking endeavors, of which Ayurveda research is a part. This is done by examining statistical hypothesis testing, the underlying foundation of RCTs, from a practical and philosophical perspective. In the philosophical critique, the two main worldviews of probability are that of the Bayesian and the frequentist. The frequentist worldview is a special case of the Bayesian worldview requiring the unrealistic assumptions of knowing nothing about the universe and believing that all observations are unrelated to each other. Many have claimed that the first belief is necessary for science, and this claim is debunked by comparing variations in learning with different prior beliefs. Moving beyond the Bayesian and frequentist worldviews, the notion of hypothesis testing itself is challenged on the grounds that a hypothesis is an unclear distinction, and assigning a probability on an unclear distinction is an exercise that does not lead to clarity of action. This critique is of the theory itself and not any particular application of statistical hypothesis testing. A decision-making frame is proposed as a way of both addressing this critique and transcending ideological debates on probability. An example of a Bayesian decision-making approach is shown as an alternative to statistical hypothesis testing, utilizing data from a past clinical trial that studied the effect of Aspirin on heart attacks in a sample population of doctors. As a big reason for the prevalence of RCTs in academia is legislation requiring it, the ethics of legislating the use of statistical methods for clinical research is also examined.

A multilocus evaluation of ermine (Mustela erminea) across the Holarctic, testing hypotheses of Pleistocene diversification in response to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Dawson, Natalie G.; Hope, Andrew G.; Talbot, Sandra L.; Cook, Joseph A.

2013-01-01

Aim: We examined data for ermine (Mustela erminea) to test two sets of diversification hypotheses concerning the number and location of late Pleistocene refugia, the timing and mode of diversification, and the evolutionary influence of insularization. Location: Temperate and sub-Arctic Northern Hemisphere. Methods: We used up to two mitochondrial and four nuclear loci from 237 specimens for statistical phylogeographical and demographic analyses. Coalescent species-tree estimation used a Bayesian approach for clade divergence based on external mutation rate calibrations. Approximate Bayesian methods were used to assess population size, timing of divergence and gene flow. Results: Limited structure coupled with evidence of population growth across broad regions, including previously ice-covered areas, indicated expansion from multiple centres of differentiation, but high endemism along the North Pacific coast (NPC). A bifurcating model of diversification with recent growth spanning three glacial cycles best explained the empirical data. Main conclusions: A newly identified clade in North America indicated a fourth refugial area for ermine. The shallow coalescence of all extant ermine reflects a recent history of diversification overlying a deeper fossil record. Post-glacial colonization has led to potential contact zones for multiple lineages in north-western North America. A model of diversification of ermine accompanied by recent gene flow was marginally less well supported than a model of divergence of major clades in response to the most recent glacial cycles.

Statistical test theory for the behavioral sciences

CERN Document Server

de Gruijter, Dato N M

2007-01-01

Since the development of the first intelligence test in the early 20th century, educational and psychological tests have become important measurement techniques to quantify human behavior. Focusing on this ubiquitous yet fruitful area of research, Statistical Test Theory for the Behavioral Sciences provides both a broad overview and a critical survey of assorted testing theories and models used in psychology, education, and other behavioral science fields. Following a logical progression from basic concepts to more advanced topics, the book first explains classical test theory, covering true score, measurement error, and reliability. It then presents generalizability theory, which provides a framework to deal with various aspects of test scores. In addition, the authors discuss the concept of validity in testing, offering a strategy for evidence-based validity. In the two chapters devoted to item response theory (IRT), the book explores item response models, such as the Rasch model, and applications, incl...

Replicated population divergence caused by localized coevolution? A test of three hypotheses in the red crossbill-lodgepole pine system.

Science.gov (United States)

Edelaar, P; Benkman, C W

2006-09-01

Several lines of evidence support the hypothesis that local populations of red crossbills (Loxia curvirostra complex) enter into a predator-prey arms race with lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta latifolia) in the absence of competing pine squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus). Nevertheless, the alternative hypotheses that neutral evolution or factors other than squirrels have caused crossbill population differentiation have not been thoroughly tested. We compared crossbill and pine cone morphology between island populations where squirrels are absent or present, and mainland sites where squirrels are present, in order to distinguish among these hypotheses. All comparisons supported an effect of squirrel absence, not island status, on crossbill and cone morphology. Hence our results provide further evidence that strong localized coevolutionary interactions in a geographic mosaic have driven adaptive population differentiation. In addition, vocal differentiation of crossbills was related to the absence of squirrels, but not to island status. As morphological and vocal differentiation is correlated with reproductive isolation in crossbills, the geographic mosaic of coevolution also seems to promote ecological speciation.

Efficient statistical tests to compare Youden index: accounting for contingency correlation.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Fangyao; Xue, Yuqiang; Tan, Ming T; Chen, Pingyan

2015-04-30

Youden index is widely utilized in studies evaluating accuracy of diagnostic tests and performance of predictive, prognostic, or risk models. However, both one and two independent sample tests on Youden index have been derived ignoring the dependence (association) between sensitivity and specificity, resulting in potentially misleading findings. Besides, paired sample test on Youden index is currently unavailable. This article develops efficient statistical inference procedures for one sample, independent, and paired sample tests on Youden index by accounting for contingency correlation, namely associations between sensitivity and specificity and paired samples typically represented in contingency tables. For one and two independent sample tests, the variances are estimated by Delta method, and the statistical inference is based on the central limit theory, which are then verified by bootstrap estimates. For paired samples test, we show that the estimated covariance of the two sensitivities and specificities can be represented as a function of kappa statistic so the test can be readily carried out. We then show the remarkable accuracy of the estimated variance using a constrained optimization approach. Simulation is performed to evaluate the statistical properties of the derived tests. The proposed approaches yield more stable type I errors at the nominal level and substantially higher power (efficiency) than does the original Youden's approach. Therefore, the simple explicit large sample solution performs very well. Because we can readily implement the asymptotic and exact bootstrap computation with common software like R, the method is broadly applicable to the evaluation of diagnostic tests and model performance. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Statistical inference involving binomial and negative binomial parameters.

Science.gov (United States)

García-Pérez, Miguel A; Núñez-Antón, Vicente

2009-05-01

Statistical inference about two binomial parameters implies that they are both estimated by binomial sampling. There are occasions in which one aims at testing the equality of two binomial parameters before and after the occurrence of the first success along a sequence of Bernoulli trials. In these cases, the binomial parameter before the first success is estimated by negative binomial sampling whereas that after the first success is estimated by binomial sampling, and both estimates are related. This paper derives statistical tools to test two hypotheses, namely, that both binomial parameters equal some specified value and that both parameters are equal though unknown. Simulation studies are used to show that in small samples both tests are accurate in keeping the nominal Type-I error rates, and also to determine sample size requirements to detect large, medium, and small effects with adequate power. Additional simulations also show that the tests are sufficiently robust to certain violations of their assumptions.

ITSSOIN Hypotheses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anheier, H.K.; Krlev, G.; Preuss, S.; Mildenberger, G.; Bekkers, R.H.F.P.; Brink Lund, A.

2014-01-01

This report brings together findings from the first ITSSOIN project working steps to formulate empirically testable hypotheses on the impact of the third sector and social innovation – in particular regarding the role of the third sector in generating social innovation but also with reference to

A Modified Jonckheere Test Statistic for Ordered Alternatives in Repeated Measures Design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hatice Tül Kübra AKDUR

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In this article, a new test based on Jonckheere test [1] for  randomized blocks which have dependent observations within block is presented. A weighted sum for each block statistic rather than the unweighted sum proposed by Jonckheereis included. For Jonckheere type statistics, the main assumption is independency of observations within block. In the case of repeated measures design, the assumption of independence is violated. The weighted Jonckheere type statistic for the situation of dependence for different variance-covariance structure and the situation based on ordered alternative hypothesis structure of each block on the design is used. Also, the proposed statistic is compared to the existing test based on Jonckheere in terms of type I error rates by performing Monte Carlo simulation. For the strong correlations, circular bootstrap version of the proposed Jonckheere test provides lower rates of type I error.

Use of run statistics to validate tensile tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eatherly, W.P.

1981-01-01

In tensile testing of irradiated graphites, it is difficult to assure alignment of sample and train for tensile measurements. By recording location of fractures, run (sequential) statistics can readily detect lack of randomness. The technique is based on partitioning binomial distributions

Exaptation in human evolution: how to test adaptive vs exaptive evolutionary hypotheses.

Science.gov (United States)

Pievani, Telmo; Serrelli, Emanuele

2011-01-01

Palaeontologists, Stephen J. Gould and Elisabeth Vrba, introduced the term "ex-aptation" with the aim of improving and enlarging the scientific language available to researchers studying the evolution of any useful character, instead of calling it an "adaptation" by default, coming up with what Gould named an "extended taxonomy of fitness". With the extension to functional co-optations from non-adaptive structures ("spandrels"), the notion of exaptation expanded and revised the neo-Darwinian concept of "pre-adaptation" (which was misleading, for Gould and Vrba, suggesting foreordination). Exaptation is neither a "saltationist" nor an "anti-Darwinian" concept and, since 1982, has been adopted by many researchers in evolutionary and molecular biology, and particularly in human evolution. Exaptation has also been contested. Objections include the "non-operationality objection".We analyze the possible operationalization of this concept in two recent studies, and identify six directions of empirical research, which are necessary to test "adaptive vs. exaptive" evolutionary hypotheses. We then comment on a comprehensive survey of literature (available online), and on the basis of this we make a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the adoption of the term among scientists who study human evolution. We discuss the epistemic conditions that may have influenced the adoption and appropriate use of exaptation, and comment on the benefits of an "extended taxonomy of fitness" in present and future studies concerning human evolution.

Your Chi-Square Test Is Statistically Significant: Now What?

Science.gov (United States)

Sharpe, Donald

2015-01-01

Applied researchers have employed chi-square tests for more than one hundred years. This paper addresses the question of how one should follow a statistically significant chi-square test result in order to determine the source of that result. Four approaches were evaluated: calculating residuals, comparing cells, ransacking, and partitioning. Data…

Properties of permutation-based gene tests and controlling type 1 error using a summary statistic based gene test.

Science.gov (United States)

Swanson, David M; Blacker, Deborah; Alchawa, Taofik; Ludwig, Kerstin U; Mangold, Elisabeth; Lange, Christoph

2013-11-07

The advent of genome-wide association studies has led to many novel disease-SNP associations, opening the door to focused study on their biological underpinnings. Because of the importance of analyzing these associations, numerous statistical methods have been devoted to them. However, fewer methods have attempted to associate entire genes or genomic regions with outcomes, which is potentially more useful knowledge from a biological perspective and those methods currently implemented are often permutation-based. One property of some permutation-based tests is that their power varies as a function of whether significant markers are in regions of linkage disequilibrium (LD) or not, which we show from a theoretical perspective. We therefore develop two methods for quantifying the degree of association between a genomic region and outcome, both of whose power does not vary as a function of LD structure. One method uses dimension reduction to "filter" redundant information when significant LD exists in the region, while the other, called the summary-statistic test, controls for LD by scaling marker Z-statistics using knowledge of the correlation matrix of markers. An advantage of this latter test is that it does not require the original data, but only their Z-statistics from univariate regressions and an estimate of the correlation structure of markers, and we show how to modify the test to protect the type 1 error rate when the correlation structure of markers is misspecified. We apply these methods to sequence data of oral cleft and compare our results to previously proposed gene tests, in particular permutation-based ones. We evaluate the versatility of the modification of the summary-statistic test since the specification of correlation structure between markers can be inaccurate. We find a significant association in the sequence data between the 8q24 region and oral cleft using our dimension reduction approach and a borderline significant association using the

Reliability Evaluation of Concentric Butterfly Valve Using Statistical Hypothesis Test

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chang, Mu Seong; Choi, Jong Sik; Choi, Byung Oh; Kim, Do Sik [Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-12-15

A butterfly valve is a type of flow-control device typically used to regulate a fluid flow. This paper presents an estimation of the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution, characteristic life, and B10 life for a concentric butterfly valve based on a statistical analysis of the reliability test data taken before and after the valve improvement. The difference in the shape and scale parameters between the existing and improved valves is reviewed using a statistical hypothesis test. The test results indicate that the shape parameter of the improved valve is similar to that of the existing valve, and that the scale parameter of the improved valve is found to have increased. These analysis results are particularly useful for a reliability qualification test and the determination of the service life cycles.

Reliability Evaluation of Concentric Butterfly Valve Using Statistical Hypothesis Test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Mu Seong; Choi, Jong Sik; Choi, Byung Oh; Kim, Do Sik

2015-01-01

A butterfly valve is a type of flow-control device typically used to regulate a fluid flow. This paper presents an estimation of the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution, characteristic life, and B10 life for a concentric butterfly valve based on a statistical analysis of the reliability test data taken before and after the valve improvement. The difference in the shape and scale parameters between the existing and improved valves is reviewed using a statistical hypothesis test. The test results indicate that the shape parameter of the improved valve is similar to that of the existing valve, and that the scale parameter of the improved valve is found to have increased. These analysis results are particularly useful for a reliability qualification test and the determination of the service life cycles

Twelve testable hypotheses on the geobiology of weathering

Science.gov (United States)

S.L. Brantley; J.P. Megonigal; F.N. Scatena; Z. Balogh-Brunstad; R.T. Barnes; M.A. Bruns; P. van Cappelen; K. Dontsova; H.E. Hartnett; A.S. Hartshorn; A. Heimsath; E. Herndon; L. Jin; C.K. Keller; J.R. Leake; W.H. McDowell; F.C. Meinzer; T.J. Mozdzer; S. Petsch; J. Pett-Ridge; K.S. Pretziger; P.A. Raymond; C.S. Riebe; K. Shumaker; A. Sutton-Grier; R. Walter; K. Yoo

2011-01-01

Critical Zone (CZ) research investigates the chemical, physical, and biological processes that modulate the Earth's surface. Here, we advance 12 hypotheses that must be tested to improve our understanding of the CZ: (1) Solar-to-chemical conversion of energy by plants regulates flows of carbon, water, and nutrients through plant-microbe soil networks, thereby...

New robust statistical procedures for the polytomous logistic regression models.

Science.gov (United States)

Castilla, Elena; Ghosh, Abhik; Martin, Nirian; Pardo, Leandro

2018-05-17

This article derives a new family of estimators, namely the minimum density power divergence estimators, as a robust generalization of the maximum likelihood estimator for the polytomous logistic regression model. Based on these estimators, a family of Wald-type test statistics for linear hypotheses is introduced. Robustness properties of both the proposed estimators and the test statistics are theoretically studied through the classical influence function analysis. Appropriate real life examples are presented to justify the requirement of suitable robust statistical procedures in place of the likelihood based inference for the polytomous logistic regression model. The validity of the theoretical results established in the article are further confirmed empirically through suitable simulation studies. Finally, an approach for the data-driven selection of the robustness tuning parameter is proposed with empirical justifications. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

Statistical test for the distribution of galaxies on plates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia Lambas, D.

1985-01-01

A statistical test for the distribution of galaxies on plates is presented. We apply the test to synthetic astronomical plates obtained by means of numerical simulation (Garcia Lambas and Sersic 1983) with three different models for the 3-dimensional distribution, comparison with an observational plate, suggest the presence of filamentary structure. (author)

Summary on Bayes estimation and hypothesis testing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. J. de Waal

1988-03-01

Full Text Available Although Bayes’ theorem was published in 1764, it is only recently that Bayesian procedures were used in practice in statistical analyses. Many developments have taken place and are still taking place in the areas of decision theory and group decision making. Two aspects, namely that of estimation and tests of hypotheses, will be looked into. This is the area of statistical inference mainly concerned with Mathematical Statistics.

Assessment of the beryllium lymphocyte proliferation test using statistical process control.

Science.gov (United States)

Cher, Daniel J; Deubner, David C; Kelsh, Michael A; Chapman, Pamela S; Ray, Rose M

2006-10-01

Despite more than 20 years of surveillance and epidemiologic studies using the beryllium blood lymphocyte proliferation test (BeBLPT) as a measure of beryllium sensitization (BeS) and as an aid for diagnosing subclinical chronic beryllium disease (CBD), improvements in specific understanding of the inhalation toxicology of CBD have been limited. Although epidemiologic data suggest that BeS and CBD risks vary by process/work activity, it has proven difficult to reach specific conclusions regarding the dose-response relationship between workplace beryllium exposure and BeS or subclinical CBD. One possible reason for this uncertainty could be misclassification of BeS resulting from variation in BeBLPT testing performance. The reliability of the BeBLPT, a biological assay that measures beryllium sensitization, is unknown. To assess the performance of four laboratories that conducted this test, we used data from a medical surveillance program that offered testing for beryllium sensitization with the BeBLPT. The study population was workers exposed to beryllium at various facilities over a 10-year period (1992-2001). Workers with abnormal results were offered diagnostic workups for CBD. Our analyses used a standard statistical technique, statistical process control (SPC), to evaluate test reliability. The study design involved a repeated measures analysis of BeBLPT results generated from the company-wide, longitudinal testing. Analytical methods included use of (1) statistical process control charts that examined temporal patterns of variation for the stimulation index, a measure of cell reactivity to beryllium; (2) correlation analysis that compared prior perceptions of BeBLPT instability to the statistical measures of test variation; and (3) assessment of the variation in the proportion of missing test results and how time periods with more missing data influenced SPC findings. During the period of this study, all laboratories displayed variation in test results that

Ancestral state reconstructions require biological evidence to test evolutionary hypotheses: A case study examining the evolution of reproductive mode in squamate reptiles.

Science.gov (United States)

Griffith, Oliver W; Blackburn, Daniel G; Brandley, Matthew C; Van Dyke, James U; Whittington, Camilla M; Thompson, Michael B

2015-09-01

To understand evolutionary transformations it is necessary to identify the character states of extinct ancestors. Ancestral character state reconstruction is inherently difficult because it requires an accurate phylogeny, character state data, and a statistical model of transition rates and is fundamentally constrained by missing data such as extinct taxa. We argue that model based ancestral character state reconstruction should be used to generate hypotheses but should not be considered an analytical endpoint. Using the evolution of viviparity and reversals to oviparity in squamates as a case study, we show how anatomical, physiological, and ecological data can be used to evaluate hypotheses about evolutionary transitions. The evolution of squamate viviparity requires changes to the timing of reproductive events and the successive loss of features responsible for building an eggshell. A reversal to oviparity requires that those lost traits re-evolve. We argue that the re-evolution of oviparity is inherently more difficult than the reverse. We outline how the inviability of intermediate phenotypes might present physiological barriers to reversals from viviparity to oviparity. Finally, we show that ecological data supports an oviparous ancestral state for squamates and multiple transitions to viviparity. In summary, we conclude that the first squamates were oviparous, that frequent transitions to viviparity have occurred, and that reversals to oviparity in viviparous lineages either have not occurred or are exceedingly rare. As this evidence supports conclusions that differ from previous ancestral state reconstructions, our paper highlights the importance of incorporating biological evidence to evaluate model-generated hypotheses. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Study designs, use of statistical tests, and statistical analysis software choice in 2015: Results from two Pakistani monthly Medline indexed journals.

Science.gov (United States)

Shaikh, Masood Ali

2017-09-01

Assessment of research articles in terms of study designs used, statistical tests applied and the use of statistical analysis programmes help determine research activity profile and trends in the country. In this descriptive study, all original articles published by Journal of Pakistan Medical Association (JPMA) and Journal of the College of Physicians and Surgeons Pakistan (JCPSP), in the year 2015 were reviewed in terms of study designs used, application of statistical tests, and the use of statistical analysis programmes. JPMA and JCPSP published 192 and 128 original articles, respectively, in the year 2015. Results of this study indicate that cross-sectional study design, bivariate inferential statistical analysis entailing comparison between two variables/groups, and use of statistical software programme SPSS to be the most common study design, inferential statistical analysis, and statistical analysis software programmes, respectively. These results echo previously published assessment of these two journals for the year 2014.

Appropriate statistical methods are required to assess diagnostic tests for replacement, add-on, and triage

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hayen, Andrew; Macaskill, Petra; Irwig, Les; Bossuyt, Patrick

2010-01-01

To explain which measures of accuracy and which statistical methods should be used in studies to assess the value of a new binary test as a replacement test, an add-on test, or a triage test. Selection and explanation of statistical methods, illustrated with examples. Statistical methods for

On setting NRC alarm thresholds for inventory differences and process unit loss estimators: Clarifying their statistical basis with hypothesis testing methods and error propagation models from Jaech, Bowen and Bennett and IAEA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ong, L.

1995-01-01

Major fuel cycle facilities in the US private sector are required to respond-at predetermined alarm levels-to various special nuclear material loss estimators in the material control and accounting (MC and A) area. This paper presents US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) policy, along with the underlying statistical rationale, for establishing and inspecting the application of thresholds to detect excessive inventory differences (ID). Accordingly, escalating responsive action must be taken to satisfy NRC's MC and A regulations for low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel conversion/fabrication plants and LEU enrichment facilities. The establishment of appropriate ID detection thresholds depends on a site-specific goal quantity, a specified probability of detection and the standard error of the ID. Regulatory guidelines for ID significance tests and process control tests conducted by licensees with highly enriched uranium are similarly rationalized in definitive hypothesis testing including null and alternative hypotheses; statistical efforts of the first, second, third, and fourth kinds; and suitable test statistics, uncertainty estimates, prevailing assumptions, and critical values for comparisons. Conceptual approaches are described in the context of significance test considerations and measurement error models including the treatment of so called ''systematic error variance'' effects as observations of random variables in the statistical sense

THE ATKINSON INDEX, THE MORAN STATISTIC, AND TESTING EXPONENTIALITY

OpenAIRE

Nao, Mimoto; Ricardas, Zitikis; Department of Statistics and Probability, Michigan State University; Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, University of Western Ontario

2008-01-01

Constructing tests for exponentiality has been an active and fruitful research area, with numerous applications in engineering, biology and other sciences concerned with life-time data. In the present paper, we construct and investigate powerful tests for exponentiality based on two well known quantities: the Atkinson index and the Moran statistic. We provide an extensive study of the performance of the tests and compare them with those already available in the literature.

Errors in statistical decision making Chapter 2 in Applied Statistics in Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Sciences

Science.gov (United States)

Agronomic and Environmental research experiments result in data that are analyzed using statistical methods. These data are unavoidably accompanied by uncertainty. Decisions about hypotheses, based on statistical analyses of these data are therefore subject to error. This error is of three types,...

688,112 statistical results: Content mining psychology articles for statistical test results

OpenAIRE

Hartgerink, C.H.J.

2016-01-01

In this data deposit, I describe a dataset that is the result of content mining 167,318 published articles for statistical test results reported according to the standards prescribed by the American Psychological Association (APA). Articles published by the APA, Springer, Sage, and Taylor & Francis were included (mining from Wiley and Elsevier was actively blocked). As a result of this content mining, 688,112 results from 50,845 articles were extracted. In order to provide a comprehensive set...

Test Statistics and Confidence Intervals to Establish Noninferiority between Treatments with Ordinal Categorical Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Fanghong; Miyaoka, Etsuo; Huang, Fuping; Tanaka, Yutaka

2015-01-01

The problem for establishing noninferiority is discussed between a new treatment and a standard (control) treatment with ordinal categorical data. A measure of treatment effect is used and a method of specifying noninferiority margin for the measure is provided. Two Z-type test statistics are proposed where the estimation of variance is constructed under the shifted null hypothesis using U-statistics. Furthermore, the confidence interval and the sample size formula are given based on the proposed test statistics. The proposed procedure is applied to a dataset from a clinical trial. A simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of the proposed test statistics with that of the existing ones, and the results show that the proposed test statistics are better in terms of the deviation from nominal level and the power.

Testing Cort-Fitness and Cort-Adaptation hypotheses in a habitat suitability gradient for roe deer

Science.gov (United States)

Escribano-Avila, Gema; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Virgós, Emilio; Lara-Romero, Carlos; Lozano, Jorge; Barja, Isabel; Cuadra, Felipe S.; Puerta, Marisa

2013-11-01

According to the Cort-Fitness Hypothesis, higher stress levels (glucocorticoids) in vertebrates are correlated to lower fitness. However, recent studies have failed to validate this hypothesis. A proposed wider framework suggests that reproduction can be perceived as an overload adds up to other environmental challenges that individuals must adjust to. In this case, elevated glucocorticoids could help individuals to allocate resources to reproduction without comprising other functions, leading to the expectation of a positive cort-fitness relationship. This has been proposed as the Cort-Adaptation Hypothesis. Stress levels result from a complex interaction between the environment and the neuroendocrine system of animals. Accounting for physiological functions involved in how animals cope with their environment would help to clarify the relationship between glucocorticoids and animal performance. We used roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) inhabiting diverse habitats in the Iberian Peninsula to: i) test the Cort-Fitness and Cort-Adaptation hypotheses by indexing fitness using a comprehensive physiological approach which takes into account fundamental physiological functions and their trade-offs; and ii) evaluate the link between primary productivity and individuals' condition in a seasonal environment. We evaluated spatial and temporal variation in stress levels, reproductive hormone levels, nutritional status and immune function from fecal samples collected in 2010. Lower stress levels were related to better condition in non-reproductive seasons but not to higher primary productivity. In contrast, stress levels were always positively related to reproductive condition, which was better in most productive habitats. Summer and winter were the less productive seasons and the more challenging for the species in the habitat gradient studied. In winter, reproductive condition traded off against immune function being biased toward immune function in less productive habitats. In

Testing statistical isotropy in cosmic microwave background polarization maps

Science.gov (United States)

Rath, Pranati K.; Samal, Pramoda Kumar; Panda, Srikanta; Mishra, Debesh D.; Aluri, Pavan K.

2018-04-01

We apply our symmetry based Power tensor technique to test conformity of PLANCK Polarization maps with statistical isotropy. On a wide range of angular scales (l = 40 - 150), our preliminary analysis detects many statistically anisotropic multipoles in foreground cleaned full sky PLANCK polarization maps viz., COMMANDER and NILC. We also study the effect of residual foregrounds that may still be present in the Galactic plane using both common UPB77 polarization mask, as well as the individual component separation method specific polarization masks. However, some of the statistically anisotropic modes still persist, albeit significantly in NILC map. We further probed the data for any coherent alignments across multipoles in several bins from the chosen multipole range.

Kepler Planet Detection Metrics: Statistical Bootstrap Test

Science.gov (United States)

Jenkins, Jon M.; Burke, Christopher J.

2016-01-01

This document describes the data produced by the Statistical Bootstrap Test over the final three Threshold Crossing Event (TCE) deliveries to NExScI: SOC 9.1 (Q1Q16)1 (Tenenbaum et al. 2014), SOC 9.2 (Q1Q17) aka DR242 (Seader et al. 2015), and SOC 9.3 (Q1Q17) aka DR253 (Twicken et al. 2016). The last few years have seen significant improvements in the SOC science data processing pipeline, leading to higher quality light curves and more sensitive transit searches. The statistical bootstrap analysis results presented here and the numerical results archived at NASAs Exoplanet Science Institute (NExScI) bear witness to these software improvements. This document attempts to introduce and describe the main features and differences between these three data sets as a consequence of the software changes.

The Relationship between Test Anxiety and Academic Performance of Students in Vital Statistics Course

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shirin Iranfar

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Test anxiety is a common phenomenon among students and is one of the problems of educational system. The present study was conducted to investigate the test anxiety in vital statistics course and its association with academic performance of students at Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences. This study was descriptive-analytical and the study sample included the students studying in nursing and midwifery, paramedicine and health faculties that had taken vital statistics course and were selected through census method. Sarason questionnaire was used to analyze the test anxiety. Data were analyzed by descriptive and inferential statistics. The findings indicated no significant correlation between test anxiety and score of vital statistics course.

"On Clocks and Clouds:" Confirming and Interpreting Climate Models as Scientific Hypotheses (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Donner, L.

2009-12-01

The certainty of climate change projected under various scenarios of emissions using general circulation models is an issue of vast societal importance. Unlike numerical weather prediction, a problem to which general circulation models are also applied, projected climate changes usually lie outside of the range of external forcings for which the models generating these changes have been directly evaluated. This presentation views climate models as complex scientific hypotheses and thereby frames these models within a well-defined process of both advancing scientific knowledge and recognizing its limitations. Karl Popper's Logik der Forschung (The Logic of Scientific Discovery, 1934) and 1965 essay “On Clocks and Clouds” capture well the methodologies and challenges associated with constructing climate models. Indeed, the process of a problem situation generating tentative theories, refined by error elimination, characterizes aptly the routine of general circulation model development. Limitations on certainty arise from the distinction Popper perceived in types of natural processes, which he exemplified by clocks, capable of exact measurement, and clouds, subject only to statistical approximation. Remarkably, the representation of clouds in general circulation models remains the key uncertainty in understanding atmospheric aspects of climate change. The asymmetry of hypothesis falsification by negation and much vaguer development of confidence in hypotheses consistent with some of their implications is an important practical challenge to confirming climate models. The presentation will discuss the ways in which predictions made by climate models for observable aspects of the present and past climate can be regarded as falsifiable hypotheses. The presentation will also include reasons why “passing” these tests does not provide complete confidence in predictions about the future by climate models. Finally, I will suggest that a “reductionist” view, in

Paradigms and pragmatism: approaches to medical statistics.

Science.gov (United States)

Healy, M J

2000-01-01

Until recently, the dominant philosophy of science was that due to Karl Popper, with its doctrine that the proper task of science was the formulation of hypotheses followed by attempts at refuting them. In spite of the close analogy with significance testing, these ideas do not fit well with the practice of medical statistics. The same can be said of the later philosophy of Thomas Kuhn, who maintains that science proceeds by way of revolutionary upheavals separated by periods of relatively pedestrian research which are governed by what Kuhn refers to as paradigms. Through there have been paradigm shifts in the history of statistics, a degree of continuity can also be discerned. A current paradigm shift is embodied in the spread of Bayesian ideas. It may be that a future paradigm will emphasise the pragmatic approach to statistics that is associated with the name of Daniel Schwartz.

HistFitter software framework for statistical data analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baak, M. [CERN, Geneva (Switzerland); Besjes, G.J. [Radboud University Nijmegen, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Nikhef, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Cote, D. [University of Texas, Arlington (United States); Koutsman, A. [TRIUMF, Vancouver (Canada); Lorenz, J. [Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitaet Muenchen, Munich (Germany); Excellence Cluster Universe, Garching (Germany); Short, D. [University of Oxford, Oxford (United Kingdom)

2015-04-15

We present a software framework for statistical data analysis, called HistFitter, that has been used extensively by the ATLAS Collaboration to analyze big datasets originating from proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. Since 2012 HistFitter has been the standard statistical tool in searches for supersymmetric particles performed by ATLAS. HistFitter is a programmable and flexible framework to build, book-keep, fit, interpret and present results of data models of nearly arbitrary complexity. Starting from an object-oriented configuration, defined by users, the framework builds probability density functions that are automatically fit to data and interpreted with statistical tests. Internally HistFitter uses the statistics packages RooStats and HistFactory. A key innovation of HistFitter is its design, which is rooted in analysis strategies of particle physics. The concepts of control, signal and validation regions are woven into its fabric. These are progressively treated with statistically rigorous built-in methods. Being capable of working with multiple models at once that describe the data, HistFitter introduces an additional level of abstraction that allows for easy bookkeeping, manipulation and testing of large collections of signal hypotheses. Finally, HistFitter provides a collection of tools to present results with publication quality style through a simple command-line interface. (orig.)

HistFitter software framework for statistical data analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baak, M.; Besjes, G.J.; Cote, D.; Koutsman, A.; Lorenz, J.; Short, D.

2015-01-01

We present a software framework for statistical data analysis, called HistFitter, that has been used extensively by the ATLAS Collaboration to analyze big datasets originating from proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. Since 2012 HistFitter has been the standard statistical tool in searches for supersymmetric particles performed by ATLAS. HistFitter is a programmable and flexible framework to build, book-keep, fit, interpret and present results of data models of nearly arbitrary complexity. Starting from an object-oriented configuration, defined by users, the framework builds probability density functions that are automatically fit to data and interpreted with statistical tests. Internally HistFitter uses the statistics packages RooStats and HistFactory. A key innovation of HistFitter is its design, which is rooted in analysis strategies of particle physics. The concepts of control, signal and validation regions are woven into its fabric. These are progressively treated with statistically rigorous built-in methods. Being capable of working with multiple models at once that describe the data, HistFitter introduces an additional level of abstraction that allows for easy bookkeeping, manipulation and testing of large collections of signal hypotheses. Finally, HistFitter provides a collection of tools to present results with publication quality style through a simple command-line interface. (orig.)

Studies of brain and cognitive maturation through childhood and adolescence: a strategy for testing neurodevelopmental hypotheses.

Science.gov (United States)

Luna, B; Sweeney, J A

2001-01-01

Although neurodevelopmental models of schizophrenia are now widely accepted, there is minimal direct human evidence of dysmaturation in schizophrenia to support this theory. This is especially the case regarding maturational changes during late childhood and adolescence, which immediately precede the typical age of onset of the disorder. By integrating new noninvasive methods of functional magnetic resonance imaging with techniques of developmental cognitive neuroscience, it is now possible to begin systematic research programs to directly test hypotheses of neurodevelopmental abnormalities in schizophrenia. In this article, we describe strategies for characterizing developmental changes taking place during the critical period of adolescence that can elucidate dysmaturation processes in schizophrenia. We emphasize the need for studies characterizing normal development before examining at-risk or clinical populations, and the potential value of using neurobehavioral and neuroimaging approaches to directly characterize the dysmaturation associated with schizophrenia.

The effect of dislike of school on risk of teenage pregnancy: testing of hypotheses using longitudinal data from a randomised trial of sex education

OpenAIRE

Bonell, C; Allen, E; Strange, V; Copas, A; Oakley, A; Stephenson, J; Johnson, A

2005-01-01

Study objective: To examine whether attitude to school is associated with subsequent risk of teenage pregnancy. To test two hypotheses that attitude to school is linked to pregnancy via pathways involving young people having "alternative" expectations or deficits in sexual health knowledge and confidence.

Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: The perils of multiple testing

Science.gov (United States)

Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Buyse, Marc

2016-01-01

Multiple testing refers to situations where a dataset is subjected to statistical testing multiple times - either at multiple time-points or through multiple subgroups or for multiple end-points. This amplifies the probability of a false-positive finding. In this article, we look at the consequences of multiple testing and explore various methods to deal with this issue. PMID:27141478

An Independent Filter for Gene Set Testing Based on Spectral Enrichment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Frost, H Robert; Li, Zhigang; Asselbergs, Folkert W; Moore, Jason H

2015-01-01

Gene set testing has become an indispensable tool for the analysis of high-dimensional genomic data. An important motivation for testing gene sets, rather than individual genomic variables, is to improve statistical power by reducing the number of tested hypotheses. Given the dramatic growth in

Testing statistical self-similarity in the topology of river networks

Science.gov (United States)

Troutman, Brent M.; Mantilla, Ricardo; Gupta, Vijay K.

2010-01-01

Recent work has demonstrated that the topological properties of real river networks deviate significantly from predictions of Shreve's random model. At the same time the property of mean self-similarity postulated by Tokunaga's model is well supported by data. Recently, a new class of network model called random self-similar networks (RSN) that combines self-similarity and randomness has been introduced to replicate important topological features observed in real river networks. We investigate if the hypothesis of statistical self-similarity in the RSN model is supported by data on a set of 30 basins located across the continental United States that encompass a wide range of hydroclimatic variability. We demonstrate that the generators of the RSN model obey a geometric distribution, and self-similarity holds in a statistical sense in 26 of these 30 basins. The parameters describing the distribution of interior and exterior generators are tested to be statistically different and the difference is shown to produce the well-known Hack's law. The inter-basin variability of RSN parameters is found to be statistically significant. We also test generator dependence on two climatic indices, mean annual precipitation and radiative index of dryness. Some indication of climatic influence on the generators is detected, but this influence is not statistically significant with the sample size available. Finally, two key applications of the RSN model to hydrology and geomorphology are briefly discussed.

Sequential Probability Ration Tests : Conservative and Robust

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleijnen, J.P.C.; Shi, Wen

2017-01-01

In practice, most computers generate simulation outputs sequentially, so it is attractive to analyze these outputs through sequential statistical methods such as sequential probability ratio tests (SPRTs). We investigate several SPRTs for choosing between two hypothesized values for the mean output

Operational statistical analysis of the results of computer-based testing of students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Виктор Иванович Нардюжев

2018-12-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the issues of statistical analysis of results of computer-based testing for evaluation of educational achievements of students. The issues are relevant due to the fact that computerbased testing in Russian universities has become an important method for evaluation of educational achievements of students and quality of modern educational process. Usage of modern methods and programs for statistical analysis of results of computer-based testing and assessment of quality of developed tests is an actual problem for every university teacher. The article shows how the authors solve this problem using their own program “StatInfo”. For several years the program has been successfully applied in a credit system of education at such technological stages as loading computerbased testing protocols into a database, formation of queries, generation of reports, lists, and matrices of answers for statistical analysis of quality of test items. Methodology, experience and some results of its usage by university teachers are described in the article. Related topics of a test development, models, algorithms, technologies, and software for large scale computer-based testing has been discussed by the authors in their previous publications which are presented in the reference list.

Effect size, confidence intervals and statistical power in psychological research.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Téllez A.

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Quantitative psychological research is focused on detecting the occurrence of certain population phenomena by analyzing data from a sample, and statistics is a particularly helpful mathematical tool that is used by researchers to evaluate hypotheses and make decisions to accept or reject such hypotheses. In this paper, the various statistical tools in psychological research are reviewed. The limitations of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST and the advantages of using effect size and its respective confidence intervals are explained, as the latter two measurements can provide important information about the results of a study. These measurements also can facilitate data interpretation and easily detect trivial effects, enabling researchers to make decisions in a more clinically relevant fashion. Moreover, it is recommended to establish an appropriate sample size by calculating the optimum statistical power at the moment that the research is designed. Psychological journal editors are encouraged to follow APA recommendations strictly and ask authors of original research studies to report the effect size, its confidence intervals, statistical power and, when required, any measure of clinical significance. Additionally, we must account for the teaching of statistics at the graduate level. At that level, students do not receive sufficient information concerning the importance of using different types of effect sizes and their confidence intervals according to the different types of research designs; instead, most of the information is focused on the various tools of NHST.

Statistical tests for the Gaussian nature of primordial fluctuations through CBR experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo, X.

1994-01-01

Information about the physical processes that generate the primordial fluctuations in the early Universe can be gained by testing the Gaussian nature of the fluctuations through cosmic microwave background radiation (CBR) temperature anisotropy experiments. One of the crucial aspects of density perturbations that are produced by the standard inflation scenario is that they are Gaussian, whereas seeds produced by topological defects left over from an early cosmic phase transition tend to be non-Gaussian. To carry out this test, sophisticated statistical tools are required. In this paper, we will discuss several such statistical tools, including multivariant skewness and kurtosis, Euler-Poincare characteristics, the three-point temperature correlation function, and Hotelling's T 2 statistic defined through bispectral estimates of a one-dimensional data set. The effect of noise present in the current data is discussed in detail and the COBE 53 GHz data set is analyzed. Our analysis shows that, on the large angular scale to which COBE is sensitive, the statistics are probably Gaussian. On the small angular scales, the importance of Hotelling's T 2 statistic is stressed, and the minimum sample size required to test Gaussianity is estimated. Although the current data set available from various experiments at half-degree scales is still too small, improvement of the data set by roughly a factor of 2 will be enough to test the Gaussianity statistically. On the arc min scale, we analyze the recent RING data through bispectral analysis, and the result indicates possible deviation from Gaussianity. Effects of point sources are also discussed. It is pointed out that the Gaussianity problem can be resolved in the near future by ground-based or balloon-borne experiments

Using the Bootstrap Method for a Statistical Significance Test of Differences between Summary Histograms

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Kuan-Man

2006-01-01

A new method is proposed to compare statistical differences between summary histograms, which are the histograms summed over a large ensemble of individual histograms. It consists of choosing a distance statistic for measuring the difference between summary histograms and using a bootstrap procedure to calculate the statistical significance level. Bootstrapping is an approach to statistical inference that makes few assumptions about the underlying probability distribution that describes the data. Three distance statistics are compared in this study. They are the Euclidean distance, the Jeffries-Matusita distance and the Kuiper distance. The data used in testing the bootstrap method are satellite measurements of cloud systems called cloud objects. Each cloud object is defined as a contiguous region/patch composed of individual footprints or fields of view. A histogram of measured values over footprints is generated for each parameter of each cloud object and then summary histograms are accumulated over all individual histograms in a given cloud-object size category. The results of statistical hypothesis tests using all three distances as test statistics are generally similar, indicating the validity of the proposed method. The Euclidean distance is determined to be most suitable after comparing the statistical tests of several parameters with distinct probability distributions among three cloud-object size categories. Impacts on the statistical significance levels resulting from differences in the total lengths of satellite footprint data between two size categories are also discussed.

Statistical Redundancy Testing for Improved Gene Selection in Cancer Classification Using Microarray Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Sunil Rao

2007-01-01

Full Text Available In gene selection for cancer classifi cation using microarray data, we define an eigenvalue-ratio statistic to measure a gene’s contribution to the joint discriminability when this gene is included into a set of genes. Based on this eigenvalueratio statistic, we define a novel hypothesis testing for gene statistical redundancy and propose two gene selection methods. Simulation studies illustrate the agreement between statistical redundancy testing and gene selection methods. Real data examples show the proposed gene selection methods can select a compact gene subset which can not only be used to build high quality cancer classifiers but also show biological relevance.

Going to the 'Dogs' to Test Hypotheses.

Science.gov (United States)

Kramm, Kenneth R.

1982-01-01

Describes an alternative method for using live animals in the classroom. A toy dog, the "Trail Tracker Hound Dog" (manufactured by CPG Products Corporation, Cincinnati, Ohio), is used to encourage development of such skills as observation, hypothesis testing, and collection and analysis of scientific data. (Author/JN)

Use of hypotheses for analysis of variance Models: Challenging the current practice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Wesel, F.; Boeije, H.R.; Hoijtink, H

2013-01-01

In social science research, hypotheses about group means are commonly tested using analysis of variance. While deemed to be formulated as specifically as possible to test social science theory, they are often defined in general terms. In this article we use two studies to explore the current

Violent media exposure, aggression and CU traits in adolescence: Testing the selection and socialization hypotheses.

Science.gov (United States)

Rydell, Ann-Margret

2016-10-01

We investigated the role of exposure to violent action for later aggression and for later callous-unemotional traits in a sample of Swedish adolescents (N = 77-85), testing the selection and socialization hypotheses. Adolescents reported on violent delinquency and on callous-unemotional (CU) traits at age 15, on their media habits at age 16 and on reactive and proactive aggression and CU traits at age 18. The socialization hypothesis was supported with regard to aggression, that is, violent delinquency did not affect consumption of violent action, but controlling for violent delinquency, consumption of violent action added to proactive aggression and, marginally, to reactive aggression. The selection hypothesis was supported with regard to CU traits, that is, high levels of CU traits predicted frequent consumption of violent action, but consumption of violent action did not affect later levels of CU traits. Frequent violent media use was associated with later aggression. The associations between CU traits and violent media need further study. Copyright © 2016 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors that affect the physical science career interest of female students: Testing five common hypotheses

Science.gov (United States)

Hazari, Zahra; Potvin, Geoff; Lock, Robynne M.; Lung, Florin; Sonnert, Gerhard; Sadler, Philip M.

2013-12-01

There are many hypotheses regarding factors that may encourage female students to pursue careers in the physical sciences. Using multivariate matching methods on national data drawn from the Persistence Research in Science and Engineering (PRiSE) project (n=7505), we test the following five commonly held beliefs regarding what factors might impact females’ physical science career interest: (i) having a single-sex physics class, (ii) having a female physics teacher, (iii) having female scientist guest speakers in physics class, (iv) discussing the work of female scientists in physics class, and (v) discussing the underrepresentation of women in physics class. The effect of these experiences on physical science career interest is compared for female students who are matched on several factors, including prior science interests, prior mathematics interests, grades in science, grades in mathematics, and years of enrollment in high school physics. No significant effects are found for single-sex classes, female teachers, female scientist guest speakers, and discussing the work of female scientists. However, discussions about women’s underrepresentation have a significant positive effect.

Support for major hypotheses in invasion biology is uneven and declining

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Jeschke, J.M.; Aparicio, L.G.; Haider, S.; Heger, T.; Lortie, C. J.; Pyšek, Petr; Strayer, D.L.

2012-01-01

Roč. 2012, č. 14 (2012), s. 1-20 ISSN 1619-0033 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP504/11/1028 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : biological invasions * hypotheses * testing Subject RIV: EF - Botanics

About hypotheses and paradigms: exploring the Discreetness-Chance Paradigm.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaellis, Eugene

2006-01-01

Hypotheses generally conform to paradigms which, over time, change, usually tardily, after they have become increasingly difficult to sustain under the impact of non-conforming evidence and alternative hypotheses, but more important, when they no longer are comfortably ensconced in the surrounding social-economic-political-cultural milieu. It is asserted that this milieu is the most important factor in shaping scientific theorizing. Some examples are cited: the rejection of the evidence that the world orbits around the sun (suspected by Pythagoras) in favor of centuries-long firm adherence to the Ptolemaic geocentric system; the early acceptance of Natural Selection in spite of its tautological essence and only conjectural supporting evidence, because it justified contemporaneous social-political ideologies as typified by, e.g., Spencer and Malthus. Economic, social, and cultural factors are cited as providing the ground, i.e., ideational substrate, for what is cited as the Discreetness-Chance Paradigm (DCP), that has increasingly dominated physics, biology, and medicine for over a century and which invokes small, discrete packets of energy/matter (quanta, genes, microorganisms, aberrant cells) functioning within an environment of statistical, not determined, causality. There is speculation on a possible paradigmatic shift from the DCP, which has fostered the proliferation, parallel with ("splitting") taxonomy, of alleged individual disease entities, their diagnoses, and, when available, their specific remedies, something particularly prominent in, e.g., psychiatry's Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, a codified compendium of alleged mental and behavioral disorders, but evident in any textbook of diagnosis and treatment of physical ailments. This presumed paradigm shift may be reflected in Western medicine, presently increasingly empirical and atomized, towards a growing acceptance of a more generalized, subject-oriented, approach to health and disease, a non

Statistical evidence for common ancestry: Application to primates.

Science.gov (United States)

Baum, David A; Ané, Cécile; Larget, Bret; Solís-Lemus, Claudia; Ho, Lam Si Tung; Boone, Peggy; Drummond, Chloe P; Bontrager, Martin; Hunter, Steven J; Saucier, William

2016-06-01

Since Darwin, biologists have come to recognize that the theory of descent from common ancestry (CA) is very well supported by diverse lines of evidence. However, while the qualitative evidence is overwhelming, we also need formal methods for quantifying the evidential support for CA over the alternative hypothesis of separate ancestry (SA). In this article, we explore a diversity of statistical methods using data from the primates. We focus on two alternatives to CA, species SA (the separate origin of each named species) and family SA (the separate origin of each family). We implemented statistical tests based on morphological, molecular, and biogeographic data and developed two new methods: one that tests for phylogenetic autocorrelation while correcting for variation due to confounding ecological traits and a method for examining whether fossil taxa have fewer derived differences than living taxa. We overwhelmingly rejected both species and family SA with infinitesimal P values. We compare these results with those from two companion papers, which also found tremendously strong support for the CA of all primates, and discuss future directions and general philosophical issues that pertain to statistical testing of historical hypotheses such as CA. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Statistical trend analysis methods for temporal phenomena

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lehtinen, E.; Pulkkinen, U. [VTT Automation, (Finland); Poern, K. [Poern Consulting, Nykoeping (Sweden)

1997-04-01

We consider point events occurring in a random way in time. In many applications the pattern of occurrence is of intrinsic interest as indicating a trend or some other systematic feature in the rate of occurrence. The purpose of this report is to survey briefly different statistical trend analysis methods and illustrate their applicability to temporal phenomena in particular. The trend testing of point events is usually seen as the testing of the hypotheses concerning the intensity of the occurrence of events. When the intensity function is parametrized, the testing of trend is a typical parametric testing problem. In industrial applications the operational experience generally does not suggest any specified model and method in advance. Therefore, and particularly, if the Poisson process assumption is very questionable, it is desirable to apply tests that are valid for a wide variety of possible processes. The alternative approach for trend testing is to use some non-parametric procedure. In this report we have presented four non-parametric tests: The Cox-Stuart test, the Wilcoxon signed ranks test, the Mann test, and the exponential ordered scores test. In addition to the classical parametric and non-parametric approaches we have also considered the Bayesian trend analysis. First we discuss a Bayesian model, which is based on a power law intensity model. The Bayesian statistical inferences are based on the analysis of the posterior distribution of the trend parameters, and the probability of trend is immediately seen from these distributions. We applied some of the methods discussed in an example case. It should be noted, that this report is a feasibility study rather than a scientific evaluation of statistical methods, and the examples can only be seen as demonstrations of the methods. 14 refs, 10 figs.

Statistical trend analysis methods for temporal phenomena

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lehtinen, E.; Pulkkinen, U.; Poern, K.

1997-04-01

We consider point events occurring in a random way in time. In many applications the pattern of occurrence is of intrinsic interest as indicating a trend or some other systematic feature in the rate of occurrence. The purpose of this report is to survey briefly different statistical trend analysis methods and illustrate their applicability to temporal phenomena in particular. The trend testing of point events is usually seen as the testing of the hypotheses concerning the intensity of the occurrence of events. When the intensity function is parametrized, the testing of trend is a typical parametric testing problem. In industrial applications the operational experience generally does not suggest any specified model and method in advance. Therefore, and particularly, if the Poisson process assumption is very questionable, it is desirable to apply tests that are valid for a wide variety of possible processes. The alternative approach for trend testing is to use some non-parametric procedure. In this report we have presented four non-parametric tests: The Cox-Stuart test, the Wilcoxon signed ranks test, the Mann test, and the exponential ordered scores test. In addition to the classical parametric and non-parametric approaches we have also considered the Bayesian trend analysis. First we discuss a Bayesian model, which is based on a power law intensity model. The Bayesian statistical inferences are based on the analysis of the posterior distribution of the trend parameters, and the probability of trend is immediately seen from these distributions. We applied some of the methods discussed in an example case. It should be noted, that this report is a feasibility study rather than a scientific evaluation of statistical methods, and the examples can only be seen as demonstrations of the methods

Effect of non-normality on test statistics for one-way independent groups designs.

Science.gov (United States)

Cribbie, Robert A; Fiksenbaum, Lisa; Keselman, H J; Wilcox, Rand R

2012-02-01

The data obtained from one-way independent groups designs is typically non-normal in form and rarely equally variable across treatment populations (i.e., population variances are heterogeneous). Consequently, the classical test statistic that is used to assess statistical significance (i.e., the analysis of variance F test) typically provides invalid results (e.g., too many Type I errors, reduced power). For this reason, there has been considerable interest in finding a test statistic that is appropriate under conditions of non-normality and variance heterogeneity. Previously recommended procedures for analysing such data include the James test, the Welch test applied either to the usual least squares estimators of central tendency and variability, or the Welch test with robust estimators (i.e., trimmed means and Winsorized variances). A new statistic proposed by Krishnamoorthy, Lu, and Mathew, intended to deal with heterogeneous variances, though not non-normality, uses a parametric bootstrap procedure. In their investigation of the parametric bootstrap test, the authors examined its operating characteristics under limited conditions and did not compare it to the Welch test based on robust estimators. Thus, we investigated how the parametric bootstrap procedure and a modified parametric bootstrap procedure based on trimmed means perform relative to previously recommended procedures when data are non-normal and heterogeneous. The results indicated that the tests based on trimmed means offer the best Type I error control and power when variances are unequal and at least some of the distribution shapes are non-normal. © 2011 The British Psychological Society.

A general statistical test for correlations in a finite-length time series.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, Jeffery A; Yang, Haw

2008-06-07

The statistical properties of the autocorrelation function from a time series composed of independently and identically distributed stochastic variables has been studied. Analytical expressions for the autocorrelation function's variance have been derived. It has been found that two common ways of calculating the autocorrelation, moving-average and Fourier transform, exhibit different uncertainty characteristics. For periodic time series, the Fourier transform method is preferred because it gives smaller uncertainties that are uniform through all time lags. Based on these analytical results, a statistically robust method has been proposed to test the existence of correlations in a time series. The statistical test is verified by computer simulations and an application to single-molecule fluorescence spectroscopy is discussed.

MANAGERIAL DECISION IN INNOVATIVE EDUCATION SYSTEMS STATISTICAL SURVEY BASED ON SAMPLE THEORY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gheorghe SĂVOIU

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Before formulating the statistical hypotheses and the econometrictesting itself, a breakdown of some of the technical issues is required, which are related to managerial decision in innovative educational systems, the educational managerial phenomenon tested through statistical and mathematical methods, respectively the significant difference in perceiving the current qualities, knowledge, experience, behaviour and desirable health, obtained through a questionnaire applied to a stratified population at the end,in the educational environment, either with educational activities, or with simultaneously managerial and educational activities. The details having to do with research focused on the survey theory, turning into a working tool the questionnaires and statistical data that are processed from those questionnaires, are summarized below.

Comment on the asymptotics of a distribution-free goodness of fit test statistic.

Science.gov (United States)

Browne, Michael W; Shapiro, Alexander

2015-03-01

In a recent article Jennrich and Satorra (Psychometrika 78: 545-552, 2013) showed that a proof by Browne (British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology 37: 62-83, 1984) of the asymptotic distribution of a goodness of fit test statistic is incomplete because it fails to prove that the orthogonal component function employed is continuous. Jennrich and Satorra (Psychometrika 78: 545-552, 2013) showed how Browne's proof can be completed satisfactorily but this required the development of an extensive and mathematically sophisticated framework for continuous orthogonal component functions. This short note provides a simple proof of the asymptotic distribution of Browne's (British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology 37: 62-83, 1984) test statistic by using an equivalent form of the statistic that does not involve orthogonal component functions and consequently avoids all complicating issues associated with them.

Improved Test Planning and Analysis Through the Use of Advanced Statistical Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Green, Lawrence L.; Maxwell, Katherine A.; Glass, David E.; Vaughn, Wallace L.; Barger, Weston; Cook, Mylan

2016-01-01

The goal of this work is, through computational simulations, to provide statistically-based evidence to convince the testing community that a distributed testing approach is superior to a clustered testing approach for most situations. For clustered testing, numerous, repeated test points are acquired at a limited number of test conditions. For distributed testing, only one or a few test points are requested at many different conditions. The statistical techniques of Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), Design of Experiments (DOE) and Response Surface Methods (RSM) are applied to enable distributed test planning, data analysis and test augmentation. The D-Optimal class of DOE is used to plan an optimally efficient single- and multi-factor test. The resulting simulated test data are analyzed via ANOVA and a parametric model is constructed using RSM. Finally, ANOVA can be used to plan a second round of testing to augment the existing data set with new data points. The use of these techniques is demonstrated through several illustrative examples. To date, many thousands of comparisons have been performed and the results strongly support the conclusion that the distributed testing approach outperforms the clustered testing approach.

A NEW TEST OF THE STATISTICAL NATURE OF THE BRIGHTEST CLUSTER GALAXIES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Yen-Ting; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.; Miller, Christopher J.

2010-01-01

A novel statistic is proposed to examine the hypothesis that all cluster galaxies are drawn from the same luminosity distribution (LD). In such a 'statistical model' of galaxy LD, the brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs) are simply the statistical extreme of the galaxy population. Using a large sample of nearby clusters, we show that BCGs in high luminosity clusters (e.g., L tot ∼> 4 x 10 11 h -2 70 L sun ) are unlikely (probability ≤3 x 10 -4 ) to be drawn from the LD defined by all red cluster galaxies more luminous than M r = -20. On the other hand, BCGs in less luminous clusters are consistent with being the statistical extreme. Applying our method to the second brightest galaxies, we show that they are consistent with being the statistical extreme, which implies that the BCGs are also distinct from non-BCG luminous, red, cluster galaxies. We point out some issues with the interpretation of the classical tests proposed by Tremaine and Richstone (TR) that are designed to examine the statistical nature of BCGs, investigate the robustness of both our statistical test and those of TR against difficulties in photometry of galaxies of large angular size, and discuss the implication of our findings on surveys that use the luminous red galaxies to measure the baryon acoustic oscillation features in the galaxy power spectrum.

Statistical Requirements For Pass-Fail Testing Of Contraband Detection Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilliam, David M.

2011-01-01

Contraband detection systems for homeland security applications are typically tested for probability of detection (PD) and probability of false alarm (PFA) using pass-fail testing protocols. Test protocols usually require specified values for PD and PFA to be demonstrated at a specified level of statistical confidence CL. Based on a recent more theoretical treatment of this subject [1], this summary reviews the definition of CL and provides formulas and spreadsheet functions for constructing tables of general test requirements and for determining the minimum number of tests required. The formulas and tables in this article may be generally applied to many other applications of pass-fail testing, in addition to testing of contraband detection systems.

The distribution of P-values in medical research articles suggested selective reporting associated with statistical significance.

Science.gov (United States)

Perneger, Thomas V; Combescure, Christophe

2017-07-01

Published P-values provide a window into the global enterprise of medical research. The aim of this study was to use the distribution of published P-values to estimate the relative frequencies of null and alternative hypotheses and to seek irregularities suggestive of publication bias. This cross-sectional study included P-values published in 120 medical research articles in 2016 (30 each from the BMJ, JAMA, Lancet, and New England Journal of Medicine). The observed distribution of P-values was compared with expected distributions under the null hypothesis (i.e., uniform between 0 and 1) and the alternative hypothesis (strictly decreasing from 0 to 1). P-values were categorized according to conventional levels of statistical significance and in one-percent intervals. Among 4,158 recorded P-values, 26.1% were highly significant (P values values equal to 1, and (3) about twice as many P-values less than 0.05 compared with those more than 0.05. The latter finding was seen in both randomized trials and observational studies, and in most types of analyses, excepting heterogeneity tests and interaction tests. Under plausible assumptions, we estimate that about half of the tested hypotheses were null and the other half were alternative. This analysis suggests that statistical tests published in medical journals are not a random sample of null and alternative hypotheses but that selective reporting is prevalent. In particular, significant results are about twice as likely to be reported as nonsignificant results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

P-Value, a true test of statistical significance? a cautionary note ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

While it's not the intention of the founders of significance testing and hypothesis testing to have the two ideas intertwined as if they are complementary, the inconvenient marriage of the two practices into one coherent, convenient, incontrovertible and misinterpreted practice has dotted our standard statistics textbooks and ...

Basal tissue structure in the earliest euconodonts: Testing hypotheses of developmental plasticity in euconodont phylogeny

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, X.-P.; Donoghue, P.C.J.; Repetski, J.E.

2005-01-01

The hypothesis that conodonts are vertebrates rests solely on evidence of soft tissue anatomy. This has been corroborated by microstructural, topological and developmental evidence of homology between conodont and vertebrate hard tissues. However, these conclusions have been reached on the basis of evidence from highly derived euconodont taxa and the degree to which they are representative of plesiomorphic euconodonts remains an open question. Furthermore, the range of variation in tissue types comprising the euconodont basal body has been used to establish a hypothesis of developmental plasticity early in the phylogeny of the clade, and a model of diminishing potentiality in the evolution of development systems. The microstructural fabrics of the basal tissues of the earliest euconodonts (presumed to be the most plesiomorphic) are examined to test these two hypotheses. It is found that the range of microstructural variation observed hitherto was already apparent among plesiomorphic euconodonts. Thus, established histological data are representative of the most plesiomorphic euconodonts. However, although there is evidence of a range in microstructural fabrics, these are compatible with the dentine tissue system alone, and the degree of variation is compatible with that seen in clades of comparable diversity. ?? The Palaeontological Association.

Statistical approach for collaborative tests, reference material certification procedures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fangmeyer, H.; Haemers, L.; Larisse, J.

1977-01-01

The first part introduces the different aspects in organizing and executing intercomparison tests of chemical or physical quantities. It follows a description of a statistical procedure to handle the data collected in a circular analysis. Finally, an example demonstrates how the tool can be applied and which conclusion can be drawn of the results obtained

Combination of statistical and physically based methods to assess shallow slide susceptibility at the basin scale

Science.gov (United States)

Oliveira, Sérgio C.; Zêzere, José L.; Lajas, Sara; Melo, Raquel

2017-07-01

Approaches used to assess shallow slide susceptibility at the basin scale are conceptually different depending on the use of statistical or physically based methods. The former are based on the assumption that the same causes are more likely to produce the same effects, whereas the latter are based on the comparison between forces which tend to promote movement along the slope and the counteracting forces that are resistant to motion. Within this general framework, this work tests two hypotheses: (i) although conceptually and methodologically distinct, the statistical and deterministic methods generate similar shallow slide susceptibility results regarding the model's predictive capacity and spatial agreement; and (ii) the combination of shallow slide susceptibility maps obtained with statistical and physically based methods, for the same study area, generate a more reliable susceptibility model for shallow slide occurrence. These hypotheses were tested at a small test site (13.9 km2) located north of Lisbon (Portugal), using a statistical method (the information value method, IV) and a physically based method (the infinite slope method, IS). The landslide susceptibility maps produced with the statistical and deterministic methods were combined into a new landslide susceptibility map. The latter was based on a set of integration rules defined by the cross tabulation of the susceptibility classes of both maps and analysis of the corresponding contingency tables. The results demonstrate a higher predictive capacity of the new shallow slide susceptibility map, which combines the independent results obtained with statistical and physically based models. Moreover, the combination of the two models allowed the identification of areas where the results of the information value and the infinite slope methods are contradictory. Thus, these areas were classified as uncertain and deserve additional investigation at a more detailed scale.

A test statistic in the complex Wishart distribution and its application to change detection in polarimetric SAR data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Conradsen, Knut; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Schou, Jesper

2003-01-01

. Based on this distribution, a test statistic for equality of two such matrices and an associated asymptotic probability for obtaining a smaller value of the test statistic are derived and applied successfully to change detection in polarimetric SAR data. In a case study, EMISAR L-band data from April 17...... to HH, VV, or HV data alone, the derived test statistic reduces to the well-known gamma likelihood-ratio test statistic. The derived test statistic and the associated significance value can be applied as a line or edge detector in fully polarimetric SAR data also....

Null but not void: considerations for hypothesis testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, Pamela A; Proschan, Michael A

2013-01-30

Standard statistical theory teaches us that once the null and alternative hypotheses have been defined for a parameter, the choice of the statistical test is clear. Standard theory does not teach us how to choose the null or alternative hypothesis appropriate to the scientific question of interest. Neither does it tell us that in some cases, depending on which alternatives are realistic, we may want to define our null hypothesis differently. Problems in statistical practice are frequently not as pristinely summarized as the classic theory in our textbooks. In this article, we present examples in statistical hypothesis testing in which seemingly simple choices are in fact rich with nuance that, when given full consideration, make the choice of the right hypothesis test much less straightforward. Published 2012. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Causes of bat fatalities at wind turbines: Hypotheses and predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Cryan, P.M.; Barclay, R.M.R.

2009-01-01

Thousands of industrial-scale wind turbines are being built across the world each year to meet the growing demand for sustainable energy. Bats of certain species are dying at wind turbines in unprecedented numbers. Species of bats consistently affected by turbines tend to be those that rely on trees as roosts and most migrate long distances. Although considerable progress has been made in recent years toward better understanding the problem, the causes of bat fatalities at turbines remain unclear. In this synthesis, we review hypothesized causes of bat fatalities at turbines. Hypotheses of cause fall into 2 general categoriesproximate and ultimate. Proximate causes explain the direct means by which bats die at turbines and include collision with towers and rotating blades, and barotrauma. Ultimate causes explain why bats come close to turbines and include 3 general types: random collisions, coincidental collisions, and collisions that result from attraction of bats to turbines. The random collision hypothesis posits that interactions between bats and turbines are random events and that fatalities are representative of the bats present at a site. Coincidental hypotheses posit that certain aspects of bat distribution or behavior put them at risk of collision and include aggregation during migration and seasonal increases in flight activity associated with feeding or mating. A surprising number of attraction hypotheses suggest that bats might be attracted to turbines out of curiosity, misperception, or as potential feeding, roosting, flocking, and mating opportunities. Identifying, prioritizing, and testing hypothesized causes of bat collisions with wind turbines are vital steps toward developing practical solutions to the problem. ?? 2009 American Society of Mammalogists.

A study of statistical tests for near-real-time materials accountancy using field test data of Tokai reprocessing plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ihara, Hitoshi; Nishimura, Hideo; Ikawa, Koji; Miura, Nobuyuki; Iwanaga, Masayuki; Kusano, Toshitsugu.

1988-03-01

An Near-Real-Time Materials Accountancy(NRTA) system had been developed as an advanced safeguards measure for PNC Tokai Reprocessing Plant; a minicomputer system for NRTA data processing was designed and constructed. A full scale field test was carried out as a JASPAS(Japan Support Program for Agency Safeguards) project with the Agency's participation and the NRTA data processing system was used. Using this field test data, investigation of the detection power of a statistical test under real circumstances was carried out for five statistical tests, i.e., a significance test of MUF, CUMUF test, average loss test, MUF residual test and Page's test on MUF residuals. The result shows that the CUMUF test, average loss test, MUF residual test and the Page's test on MUF residual test are useful to detect a significant loss or diversion. An unmeasured inventory estimation model for the PNC reprocessing plant was developed in this study. Using this model, the field test data from the C-1 to 85 - 2 campaigns were re-analyzed. (author)

"What If" Analyses: Ways to Interpret Statistical Significance Test Results Using EXCEL or "R"

Science.gov (United States)

Ozturk, Elif

2012-01-01

The present paper aims to review two motivations to conduct "what if" analyses using Excel and "R" to understand the statistical significance tests through the sample size context. "What if" analyses can be used to teach students what statistical significance tests really do and in applied research either prospectively to estimate what sample size…

Testing statistical significance scores of sequence comparison methods with structure similarity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leunissen Jack AM

2006-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In the past years the Smith-Waterman sequence comparison algorithm has gained popularity due to improved implementations and rapidly increasing computing power. However, the quality and sensitivity of a database search is not only determined by the algorithm but also by the statistical significance testing for an alignment. The e-value is the most commonly used statistical validation method for sequence database searching. The CluSTr database and the Protein World database have been created using an alternative statistical significance test: a Z-score based on Monte-Carlo statistics. Several papers have described the superiority of the Z-score as compared to the e-value, using simulated data. We were interested if this could be validated when applied to existing, evolutionary related protein sequences. Results All experiments are performed on the ASTRAL SCOP database. The Smith-Waterman sequence comparison algorithm with both e-value and Z-score statistics is evaluated, using ROC, CVE and AP measures. The BLAST and FASTA algorithms are used as reference. We find that two out of three Smith-Waterman implementations with e-value are better at predicting structural similarities between proteins than the Smith-Waterman implementation with Z-score. SSEARCH especially has very high scores. Conclusion The compute intensive Z-score does not have a clear advantage over the e-value. The Smith-Waterman implementations give generally better results than their heuristic counterparts. We recommend using the SSEARCH algorithm combined with e-values for pairwise sequence comparisons.

Celebrities: From Teachers to Friends : A Test of Two Hypotheses on the Adaptiveness of Celebrity Gossip.

Science.gov (United States)

De Backer, Charlotte J S; Nelissen, Mark; Vyncke, Patrick; Braeckman, Johan; McAndrew, Francis T

2007-12-01

In this paper we present two compatible hypotheses to explain interest in celebrity gossip. The Learning Hypothesis explains interest in celebrity gossip as a by-product of an evolved mechanism useful for acquiring fitness-relevant survival information. The Parasocial Hypothesis sees celebrity gossip as a diversion of this mechanism, which leads individuals to misperceive celebrities as people who are part of their social network. Using two preliminary studies, we tested our predictions. In a survey with 838 respondents and in-depth interviews with 103 individuals, we investigated how interest in celebrity gossip was related to several dimensions of the participants' social lives. In support of the Learning Hypothesis, age proved to be a strong predictor of interest in celebrities. In partial support of the Parasocial Hypothesis, media exposure, but not social isolation, was a strong predictor of interest in celebrities. The preliminary results support both theories, indicate that across our life span celebrities move from being teachers to being friends, and open up a list of future research opportunities.

Adaptive x-ray threat detection using sequential hypotheses testing with fan-beam experimental data (Conference Presentation)

Science.gov (United States)

Thamvichai, Ratchaneekorn; Huang, Liang-Chih; Ashok, Amit; Gong, Qian; Coccarelli, David; Greenberg, Joel A.; Gehm, Michael E.; Neifeld, Mark A.

2017-05-01

We employ an adaptive measurement system, based on sequential hypotheses testing (SHT) framework, for detecting material-based threats using experimental data acquired on an X-ray experimental testbed system. This testbed employs 45-degree fan-beam geometry and 15 views over a 180-degree span to generate energy sensitive X-ray projection data. Using this testbed system, we acquire multiple view projection data for 200 bags. We consider an adaptive measurement design where the X-ray projection measurements are acquired in a sequential manner and the adaptation occurs through the choice of the optimal "next" source/view system parameter. Our analysis of such an adaptive measurement design using the experimental data demonstrates a 3x-7x reduction in the probability of error relative to a static measurement design. Here the static measurement design refers to the operational system baseline that corresponds to a sequential measurement using all the available sources/views. We also show that by using adaptive measurements it is possible to reduce the number of sources/views by nearly 50% compared a system that relies on static measurements.

Finding differentially expressed genes in high dimensional data: Rank based test statistic via a distance measure.

Science.gov (United States)

Mathur, Sunil; Sadana, Ajit

2015-12-01

We present a rank-based test statistic for the identification of differentially expressed genes using a distance measure. The proposed test statistic is highly robust against extreme values and does not assume the distribution of parent population. Simulation studies show that the proposed test is more powerful than some of the commonly used methods, such as paired t-test, Wilcoxon signed rank test, and significance analysis of microarray (SAM) under certain non-normal distributions. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic, and the p-value function are discussed. The application of proposed method is shown using a real-life data set. © The Author(s) 2011.

Statistical tests for power-law cross-correlated processes

Science.gov (United States)

Podobnik, Boris; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Stanley, H. Eugene

2011-12-01

For stationary time series, the cross-covariance and the cross-correlation as functions of time lag n serve to quantify the similarity of two time series. The latter measure is also used to assess whether the cross-correlations are statistically significant. For nonstationary time series, the analogous measures are detrended cross-correlations analysis (DCCA) and the recently proposed detrended cross-correlation coefficient, ρDCCA(T,n), where T is the total length of the time series and n the window size. For ρDCCA(T,n), we numerically calculated the Cauchy inequality -1≤ρDCCA(T,n)≤1. Here we derive -1≤ρDCCA(T,n)≤1 for a standard variance-covariance approach and for a detrending approach. For overlapping windows, we find the range of ρDCCA within which the cross-correlations become statistically significant. For overlapping windows we numerically determine—and for nonoverlapping windows we derive—that the standard deviation of ρDCCA(T,n) tends with increasing T to 1/T. Using ρDCCA(T,n) we show that the Chinese financial market's tendency to follow the U.S. market is extremely weak. We also propose an additional statistical test that can be used to quantify the existence of cross-correlations between two power-law correlated time series.

Over the top: Experiment and the testing of hypotheses in the search for the top quark

Science.gov (United States)

Staley, Kent Wade

1998-07-01

This study presents a historical account of experiments, performed by the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF) collaboration, which led to the discovery of the top quark, and a discussion of philosophical issues raised by that episode. The historical discussion is based on published and unpublished documents and oral history interviews, and is presented in two parts: First, the formation of the collaboration and construction of the detector are described. The activities of the collaborators during the period of detector construction are described in terms of the development of resources for a general experimental programme. Second, the development of the means of analyzing the data for the top quark search is described, particularly aspects of the analysis that were disputed. The hypothesis that collaboration researchers have come to regard the social process of resolving disputes as a matter of methodological importance is suggested. The philosophical discussion of the experiment employs the hierarchy of models approach of Patrick Suppes and Deborah Mayo in order to examine the logic of hypothesis testing and draw some conclusions regarding the nature of scientific evidence. In an extension of an argument presented by Peter Achinstein, the account of hypothesis testing given by hypothetico-deductivist philosophers such as Karl Popper and R. B. Braithwaite is examined in light of the reasoning employed in the top search, and is found wanting. The prediction based on the hypothesis being tested in the top search is found to have been inferred inductively from the experimental data. Finally, a discussion is presented of tuning on the signal, a form of bias in the testing of hypotheses. The proscription of this form of bias resembles John Worrall's requirement of use novelty, but is shown instead to serve the aim of devising a test of the hypothesis that is severe, in the sense articulated by Deborah Mayo. It is shown that the evaluation of evidence claims, as it

Statistical correlation of structural mode shapes from test measurements and NASTRAN analytical values

Science.gov (United States)

Purves, L.; Strang, R. F.; Dube, M. P.; Alea, P.; Ferragut, N.; Hershfeld, D.

1983-01-01

The software and procedures of a system of programs used to generate a report of the statistical correlation between NASTRAN modal analysis results and physical tests results from modal surveys are described. Topics discussed include: a mathematical description of statistical correlation, a user's guide for generating a statistical correlation report, a programmer's guide describing the organization and functions of individual programs leading to a statistical correlation report, and a set of examples including complete listings of programs, and input and output data.

3D tooth microwear texture analysis in fishes as a test of dietary hypotheses of durophagy

Science.gov (United States)

Purnell, Mark A.; Darras, Laurent P. G.

2016-03-01

differentiate between fishes with different diets even when they range widely in size, habitat, and in the structure of their trophic apparatus. The approach thus has great potential as an additional tool for dietary analysis in extant fishes, and for testing dietary hypotheses in ancient and extinct species.

3D tooth microwear texture analysis in fishes as a test of dietary hypotheses of durophagy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Purnell, Mark A; Darras, Laurent P G

2016-01-01

differentiate between fishes with different diets even when they range widely in size, habitat, and in the structure of their trophic apparatus. The approach thus has great potential as an additional tool for dietary analysis in extant fishes, and for testing dietary hypotheses in ancient and extinct species. (paper)

Determination of Geometrical REVs Based on Volumetric Fracture Intensity and Statistical Tests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying Liu

2018-05-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a method to estimate a representative element volume (REV of a fractured rock mass based on the volumetric fracture intensity P32 and statistical tests. A 150 m × 80 m × 50 m 3D fracture network model was generated based on field data collected at the Maji dam site by using the rectangular window sampling method. The volumetric fracture intensity P32 of each cube was calculated by varying the cube location in the generated 3D fracture network model and varying the cube side length from 1 to 20 m, and the distribution of the P32 values was described. The size effect and spatial effect of the fractured rock mass were studied; the P32 values from the same cube sizes and different locations were significantly different, and the fluctuation in P32 values clearly decreases as the cube side length increases. In this paper, a new method that comprehensively considers the anisotropy of rock masses, simplicity of calculation and differences between different methods was proposed to estimate the geometrical REV size. The geometrical REV size of the fractured rock mass was determined based on the volumetric fracture intensity P32 and two statistical test methods, namely, the likelihood ratio test and the Wald–Wolfowitz runs test. The results of the two statistical tests were substantially different; critical cube sizes of 13 m and 12 m were estimated by the Wald–Wolfowitz runs test and the likelihood ratio test, respectively. Because the different test methods emphasize different considerations and impact factors, considering a result that these two tests accept, the larger cube size, 13 m, was selected as the geometrical REV size of the fractured rock mass at the Maji dam site in China.

Stigma models: Testing hypotheses of how images of Nevada are acquired and values are attached to them

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jenkins-Smith, H.C. [New Mexico Univ., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

1994-12-01

This report analyzes data from surveys on the effects that images associated with nuclear power and waste (i.e., nuclear images) have on people`s preference to vacation in Nevada. The analysis was stimulated by a model of imagery and stigma which assumes that information about a potentially hazardous facility generates signals that elicit negative images about the place in which it is located. Individuals give these images negative values (valences) that lessen their desire to vacation, relocate, or retire in that place. The model has been used to argue that the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level nuclear waste repository could elicit images of nuclear waste that would stigmatize Nevada and thus impose substantial economic losses there. This report proposes a revised model that assumes that the acquisition and valuation of images depend on individuals` ideological and cultural predispositions and that the ways in which new images will affect their preferences and behavior partly depend on these predispositions. The report tests these hypotheses: (1) individuals with distinct cultural and ideological predispositions have different propensities for acquiring nuclear images, (2) these people attach different valences to these images, (3) the variations in these valences are important, and (4) the valences of the different categories of images within an individual`s image sets for a place correlate very well. The analysis largely confirms these hypotheses, indicating that the stigma model should be revised to (1) consider the relevant ideological and cultural predispositions of the people who will potentially acquire and attach value to the image, (2) specify the kinds of images that previously attracted people to the host state, and (3) consider interactions between the old and potential new images of the place. 37 refs., 18 figs., 17 tabs.

Stigma models: Testing hypotheses of how images of Nevada are acquired and values are attached to them

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jenkins-Smith, H.C.

1994-12-01

This report analyzes data from surveys on the effects that images associated with nuclear power and waste (i.e., nuclear images) have on people's preference to vacation in Nevada. The analysis was stimulated by a model of imagery and stigma which assumes that information about a potentially hazardous facility generates signals that elicit negative images about the place in which it is located. Individuals give these images negative values (valences) that lessen their desire to vacation, relocate, or retire in that place. The model has been used to argue that the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level nuclear waste repository could elicit images of nuclear waste that would stigmatize Nevada and thus impose substantial economic losses there. This report proposes a revised model that assumes that the acquisition and valuation of images depend on individuals' ideological and cultural predispositions and that the ways in which new images will affect their preferences and behavior partly depend on these predispositions. The report tests these hypotheses: (1) individuals with distinct cultural and ideological predispositions have different propensities for acquiring nuclear images, (2) these people attach different valences to these images, (3) the variations in these valences are important, and (4) the valences of the different categories of images within an individual's image sets for a place correlate very well. The analysis largely confirms these hypotheses, indicating that the stigma model should be revised to (1) consider the relevant ideological and cultural predispositions of the people who will potentially acquire and attach value to the image, (2) specify the kinds of images that previously attracted people to the host state, and (3) consider interactions between the old and potential new images of the place. 37 refs., 18 figs., 17 tabs

Using Relative Statistics and Approximate Disease Prevalence to Compare Screening Tests.

Science.gov (United States)

Samuelson, Frank; Abbey, Craig

2016-11-01

Schatzkin et al. and other authors demonstrated that the ratios of some conditional statistics such as the true positive fraction are equal to the ratios of unconditional statistics, such as disease detection rates, and therefore we can calculate these ratios between two screening tests on the same population even if negative test patients are not followed with a reference procedure and the true and false negative rates are unknown. We demonstrate that this same property applies to an expected utility metric. We also demonstrate that while simple estimates of relative specificities and relative areas under ROC curves (AUC) do depend on the unknown negative rates, we can write these ratios in terms of disease prevalence, and the dependence of these ratios on a posited prevalence is often weak particularly if that prevalence is small or the performance of the two screening tests is similar. Therefore we can estimate relative specificity or AUC with little loss of accuracy, if we use an approximate value of disease prevalence.

CORSSA: Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Zechar, J. D.; Hardebeck, J. L.; Michael, A. J.; Naylor, M.; Steacy, S.; Wiemer, S.; Zhuang, J.

2011-12-01

Statistical seismology is critical to the understanding of seismicity, the evaluation of proposed earthquake prediction and forecasting methods, and the assessment of seismic hazard. Unfortunately, despite its importance to seismology-especially to those aspects with great impact on public policy-statistical seismology is mostly ignored in the education of seismologists, and there is no central repository for the existing open-source software tools. To remedy these deficiencies, and with the broader goal to enhance the quality of statistical seismology research, we have begun building the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (CORSSA, www.corssa.org). We anticipate that the users of CORSSA will range from beginning graduate students to experienced researchers. More than 20 scientists from around the world met for a week in Zurich in May 2010 to kick-start the creation of CORSSA: the format and initial table of contents were defined; a governing structure was organized; and workshop participants began drafting articles. CORSSA materials are organized with respect to six themes, each will contain between four and eight articles. CORSSA now includes seven articles with an additional six in draft form along with forums for discussion, a glossary, and news about upcoming meetings, special issues, and recent papers. Each article is peer-reviewed and presents a balanced discussion, including illustrative examples and code snippets. Topics in the initial set of articles include: introductions to both CORSSA and statistical seismology, basic statistical tests and their role in seismology; understanding seismicity catalogs and their problems; basic techniques for modeling seismicity; and methods for testing earthquake predictability hypotheses. We have also begun curating a collection of statistical seismology software packages.

A power comparison of generalized additive models and the spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ozonoff Al

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A common, important problem in spatial epidemiology is measuring and identifying variation in disease risk across a study region. In application of statistical methods, the problem has two parts. First, spatial variation in risk must be detected across the study region and, second, areas of increased or decreased risk must be correctly identified. The location of such areas may give clues to environmental sources of exposure and disease etiology. One statistical method applicable in spatial epidemiologic settings is a generalized additive model (GAM which can be applied with a bivariate LOESS smoother to account for geographic location as a possible predictor of disease status. A natural hypothesis when applying this method is whether residential location of subjects is associated with the outcome, i.e. is the smoothing term necessary? Permutation tests are a reasonable hypothesis testing method and provide adequate power under a simple alternative hypothesis. These tests have yet to be compared to other spatial statistics. Results This research uses simulated point data generated under three alternative hypotheses to evaluate the properties of the permutation methods and compare them to the popular spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting. Case 1 was a single circular cluster centered in a circular study region. The spatial scan statistic had the highest power though the GAM method estimates did not fall far behind. Case 2 was a single point source located at the center of a circular cluster and Case 3 was a line source at the center of the horizontal axis of a square study region. Each had linearly decreasing logodds with distance from the point. The GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in Cases 2 and 3. Comparing sensitivity, measured as the proportion of the exposure source correctly identified as high or low risk, the GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in all three Cases. Conclusions The GAM

A power comparison of generalized additive models and the spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Robin L; Weinberg, Janice; Vieira, Verónica; Ozonoff, Al; Webster, Thomas F

2010-07-19

A common, important problem in spatial epidemiology is measuring and identifying variation in disease risk across a study region. In application of statistical methods, the problem has two parts. First, spatial variation in risk must be detected across the study region and, second, areas of increased or decreased risk must be correctly identified. The location of such areas may give clues to environmental sources of exposure and disease etiology. One statistical method applicable in spatial epidemiologic settings is a generalized additive model (GAM) which can be applied with a bivariate LOESS smoother to account for geographic location as a possible predictor of disease status. A natural hypothesis when applying this method is whether residential location of subjects is associated with the outcome, i.e. is the smoothing term necessary? Permutation tests are a reasonable hypothesis testing method and provide adequate power under a simple alternative hypothesis. These tests have yet to be compared to other spatial statistics. This research uses simulated point data generated under three alternative hypotheses to evaluate the properties of the permutation methods and compare them to the popular spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting. Case 1 was a single circular cluster centered in a circular study region. The spatial scan statistic had the highest power though the GAM method estimates did not fall far behind. Case 2 was a single point source located at the center of a circular cluster and Case 3 was a line source at the center of the horizontal axis of a square study region. Each had linearly decreasing logodds with distance from the point. The GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in Cases 2 and 3. Comparing sensitivity, measured as the proportion of the exposure source correctly identified as high or low risk, the GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in all three Cases. The GAM permutation testing methods provide a regression

Predictive hypotheses are ineffectual in resolving complex biochemical systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Fry, Michael

2018-03-20

Scientific hypotheses may either predict particular unknown facts or accommodate previously-known data. Although affirmed predictions are intuitively more rewarding than accommodations of established facts, opinions divide whether predictive hypotheses are also epistemically superior to accommodation hypotheses. This paper examines the contribution of predictive hypotheses to discoveries of several bio-molecular systems. Having all the necessary elements of the system known beforehand, an abstract predictive hypothesis of semiconservative mode of DNA replication was successfully affirmed. However, in defining the genetic code whose biochemical basis was unclear, hypotheses were only partially effective and supplementary experimentation was required for its conclusive definition. Markedly, hypotheses were entirely inept in predicting workings of complex systems that included unknown elements. Thus, hypotheses did not predict the existence and function of mRNA, the multiple unidentified components of the protein biosynthesis machinery, or the manifold unknown constituents of the ubiquitin-proteasome system of protein breakdown. Consequently, because of their inability to envision unknown entities, predictive hypotheses did not contribute to the elucidation of cation theories remained the sole instrument to explain complex bio-molecular systems, the philosophical question of alleged advantage of predictive over accommodative hypotheses became inconsequential.

Testing Adaptive Hypotheses of Convergence with Functional Landscapes: A Case Study of Bone-Cracking Hypercarnivores

Science.gov (United States)

Tseng, Zhijie Jack

2013-01-01

Morphological convergence is a well documented phenomenon in mammals, and adaptive explanations are commonly employed to infer similar functions for convergent characteristics. I present a study that adopts aspects of theoretical morphology and engineering optimization to test hypotheses about adaptive convergent evolution. Bone-cracking ecomorphologies in Carnivora were used as a case study. Previous research has shown that skull deepening and widening are major evolutionary patterns in convergent bone-cracking canids and hyaenids. A simple two-dimensional design space, with skull width-to-length and depth-to-length ratios as variables, was used to examine optimized shapes for two functional properties: mechanical advantage (MA) and strain energy (SE). Functionality of theoretical skull shapes was studied using finite element analysis (FEA) and visualized as functional landscapes. The distribution of actual skull shapes in the landscape showed a convergent trend of plesiomorphically low-MA and moderate-SE skulls evolving towards higher-MA and moderate-SE skulls; this is corroborated by FEA of 13 actual specimens. Nevertheless, regions exist in the landscape where high-MA and lower-SE shapes are not represented by existing species; their vacancy is observed even at higher taxonomic levels. Results highlight the interaction of biomechanical and non-biomechanical factors in constraining general skull dimensions to localized functional optima through evolution. PMID:23734244

Testing adaptive hypotheses of convergence with functional landscapes: a case study of bone-cracking hypercarnivores.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhijie Jack Tseng

Full Text Available Morphological convergence is a well documented phenomenon in mammals, and adaptive explanations are commonly employed to infer similar functions for convergent characteristics. I present a study that adopts aspects of theoretical morphology and engineering optimization to test hypotheses about adaptive convergent evolution. Bone-cracking ecomorphologies in Carnivora were used as a case study. Previous research has shown that skull deepening and widening are major evolutionary patterns in convergent bone-cracking canids and hyaenids. A simple two-dimensional design space, with skull width-to-length and depth-to-length ratios as variables, was used to examine optimized shapes for two functional properties: mechanical advantage (MA and strain energy (SE. Functionality of theoretical skull shapes was studied using finite element analysis (FEA and visualized as functional landscapes. The distribution of actual skull shapes in the landscape showed a convergent trend of plesiomorphically low-MA and moderate-SE skulls evolving towards higher-MA and moderate-SE skulls; this is corroborated by FEA of 13 actual specimens. Nevertheless, regions exist in the landscape where high-MA and lower-SE shapes are not represented by existing species; their vacancy is observed even at higher taxonomic levels. Results highlight the interaction of biomechanical and non-biomechanical factors in constraining general skull dimensions to localized functional optima through evolution.

Consider the Alternative: The Effects of Causal Knowledge on Representing and Using Alternative Hypotheses in Judgments under Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Hayes, Brett K.; Hawkins, Guy E.; Newell, Ben R.

2016-01-01

Four experiments examined the locus of impact of causal knowledge on consideration of alternative hypotheses in judgments under uncertainty. Two possible loci were examined; overcoming neglect of the alternative when developing a representation of a judgment problem and improving utilization of statistics associated with the alternative…

Statistical test data selection for reliability evalution of process computer software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Volkmann, K.P.; Hoermann, H.; Ehrenberger, W.

1976-01-01

The paper presents a concept for converting knowledge about the characteristics of process states into practicable procedures for the statistical selection of test cases in testing process computer software. Process states are defined as vectors whose components consist of values of input variables lying in discrete positions or within given limits. Two approaches for test data selection, based on knowledge about cases of demand, are outlined referring to a purely probabilistic method and to the mathematics of stratified sampling. (orig.) [de

Ethnicity, Effort, Self-Efficacy, Worry, and Statistics Achievement in Malaysia: A Construct Validation of the State-Trait Motivation Model

Science.gov (United States)

Awang-Hashim, Rosa; O'Neil, Harold F., Jr.; Hocevar, Dennis

2002-01-01

The relations between motivational constructs, effort, self-efficacy and worry, and statistics achievement were investigated in a sample of 360 undergraduates in Malaysia. Both trait (cross-situational) and state (task-specific) measures of each construct were used to test a mediational trait (r) state (r) performance (TSP) model. As hypothesized,…

The Association between Relational Aggression and Perceived Popularity in Early Adolescence: A Test of Competing Hypotheses

Science.gov (United States)

Gangel, Meghan J.; Keane, Susan P.; Calkins, Susan D.; Shanahan, Lilly; O'Brien, Marion

2017-01-01

This study examined two competing hypotheses regarding the moderators of the association between relational aggression and peer status in early adolescence. The "mitigation relational aggression" hypothesis examined whether positive social behaviors reduced the negative effects of relational aggression, thus amplifying the association…

Evaluation of Extremal Hypotheses as a Criterion to Resolve Channel Indeterminacy

Science.gov (United States)

Tranmer, A.

2012-12-01

Design criteria for river restoration and sustainable development have significantly advanced in recent decades, yet complete deterministic formulations to address channel form and sinuosity still prove elusive. Many hypotheses have been presented to ascertain the dynamic-equilibrium of a stream at both the cross sectional and reach level. These efforts to better understand the functioning of alluvial systems include regime theory, stability theory, perturbation analysis, threshold theory, reference reach comparison, downstream hydraulic geometry, and extremal hypotheses. The latter of these theories, the extremal hypothesis, is based on optimizing one variable or criterion in the alluvial system in order to find closure to the channel design problem. Currently, there is no method to directly compare the various hypotheses at the system scale, understanding of their sensitivity to the various formulae employed or consensus regarding which hypothesis is most appropriate. This study analyzed the various extremal hypotheses in as close to a pristine environment as exists (a remote part of Patagonia, Chile), in order to assess which hypothesis (or collective hypotheses) is most appropriate for channel design. Extremal hypotheses were applied in the longitudinal direction, under the assumption of a space-for-time substitution, to evaluate the geomorphic trends of a river evolving during deglaciation. The space-for-time model assumes the watershed reaches stable, dynamic-equilibrium in its lower meandering reaches and the point of equilibrium extends upstream through its braiding reaches as the watershed adapts to new climatic and environmental conditions. Extremal hypotheses applied in a downstream fashion are then expected to predict chaotic and oversized channel characteristics in the upstream reaches and trend towards a point of equilibrium (minimum/maximum of tested hypothesis). Initial findings indicate that many hypotheses predict similar geometry and sinuosity

A Note on Three Statistical Tests in the Logistic Regression DIF Procedure

Science.gov (United States)

Paek, Insu

2012-01-01

Although logistic regression became one of the well-known methods in detecting differential item functioning (DIF), its three statistical tests, the Wald, likelihood ratio (LR), and score tests, which are readily available under the maximum likelihood, do not seem to be consistently distinguished in DIF literature. This paper provides a clarifying…

Diagonal Likelihood Ratio Test for Equality of Mean Vectors in High-Dimensional Data

KAUST Repository

Hu, Zongliang

2017-10-27

We propose a likelihood ratio test framework for testing normal mean vectors in high-dimensional data under two common scenarios: the one-sample test and the two-sample test with equal covariance matrices. We derive the test statistics under the assumption that the covariance matrices follow a diagonal matrix structure. In comparison with the diagonal Hotelling\\'s tests, our proposed test statistics display some interesting characteristics. In particular, they are a summation of the log-transformed squared t-statistics rather than a direct summation of those components. More importantly, to derive the asymptotic normality of our test statistics under the null and local alternative hypotheses, we do not require the assumption that the covariance matrix follows a diagonal matrix structure. As a consequence, our proposed test methods are very flexible and can be widely applied in practice. Finally, simulation studies and a real data analysis are also conducted to demonstrate the advantages of our likelihood ratio test method.

Diagonal Likelihood Ratio Test for Equality of Mean Vectors in High-Dimensional Data

KAUST Repository

Hu, Zongliang; Tong, Tiejun; Genton, Marc G.

2017-01-01

We propose a likelihood ratio test framework for testing normal mean vectors in high-dimensional data under two common scenarios: the one-sample test and the two-sample test with equal covariance matrices. We derive the test statistics under the assumption that the covariance matrices follow a diagonal matrix structure. In comparison with the diagonal Hotelling's tests, our proposed test statistics display some interesting characteristics. In particular, they are a summation of the log-transformed squared t-statistics rather than a direct summation of those components. More importantly, to derive the asymptotic normality of our test statistics under the null and local alternative hypotheses, we do not require the assumption that the covariance matrix follows a diagonal matrix structure. As a consequence, our proposed test methods are very flexible and can be widely applied in practice. Finally, simulation studies and a real data analysis are also conducted to demonstrate the advantages of our likelihood ratio test method.

Comparison of Statistical Methods for Detector Testing Programs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rennie, John Alan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Abhold, Mark [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2016-10-14

A typical goal for any detector testing program is to ascertain not only the performance of the detector systems under test, but also the confidence that systems accepted using that testing program’s acceptance criteria will exceed a minimum acceptable performance (which is usually expressed as the minimum acceptable success probability, p). A similar problem often arises in statistics, where we would like to ascertain the fraction, p, of a population of items that possess a property that may take one of two possible values. Typically, the problem is approached by drawing a fixed sample of size n, with the number of items out of n that possess the desired property, x, being termed successes. The sample mean gives an estimate of the population mean p ≈ x/n, although usually it is desirable to accompany such an estimate with a statement concerning the range within which p may fall and the confidence associated with that range. Procedures for establishing such ranges and confidence limits are described in detail by Clopper, Brown, and Agresti for two-sided symmetric confidence intervals.

Jsub(Ic)-testing of A-533 B - statistical evaluation of some different testing techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nilsson, F.

1978-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to compare statistically some different methods for the evaluation of fracture toughness of the nuclear reactor material A-533 B. Since linear elastic fracture mechanics is not applicable to this material at the interesting temperature (275 0 C), the so-called Jsub(Ic) testing method was employed. Two main difficulties are inherent in this type of testing. The first one is to determine the quantity J as a function of the deflection of the three-point bend specimens used. Three different techniques were used, the first two based on the experimentally observed input of energy to the specimen and the third employing finite element calculations. The second main problem is to determine the point when crack growth begins. For this, two methods were used, a direct electrical method and the indirect R-curve method. A total of forty specimens were tested at two laboratories. No statistically significant different results were obtained from the respective laboratories. The three methods of calculating J yielded somewhat different results, although the discrepancy was small. Also the two methods of determination of the growth initiation point yielded consistent results. The R-curve method, however, exhibited a larger uncertainty as measured by the standard deviation. The resulting Jsub(Ic) value also agreed well with earlier presented results. The relative standard deviation was of the order of 25%, which is quite small for this type of experiment. (author)

Economic and evolutionary hypotheses for cross-population variation in parochialism

OpenAIRE

Daniel Jacob Hruschka; Joseph eHenrich

2013-01-01

Human populations differ reliably in the degree to which people favor family, friends and community members over strangers and outsiders. In the last decade, researchers have begun to propose several economic and evolutionary hypotheses for these cross-population differences in parochialism. In this paper, we outline major current theories and review recent attempts to test them. We also discuss the key methodological challenges in assessing these diverse economic and evolutionary theories...

Statistical methods for data analysis in particle physics

CERN Document Server

AUTHOR|(CDS)2070643

2015-01-01

This concise set of course-based notes provides the reader with the main concepts and tools to perform statistical analysis of experimental data, in particular in the field of high-energy physics (HEP). First, an introduction to probability theory and basic statistics is given, mainly as reminder from advanced undergraduate studies, yet also in view to clearly distinguish the Frequentist versus Bayesian approaches and interpretations in subsequent applications. More advanced concepts and applications are gradually introduced, culminating in the chapter on upper limits as many applications in HEP concern hypothesis testing, where often the main goal is to provide better and better limits so as to be able to distinguish eventually between competing hypotheses or to rule out some of them altogether. Many worked examples will help newcomers to the field and graduate students to understand the pitfalls in applying theoretical concepts to actual data

Evaluating Two Models of Collaborative Tests in an Online Introductory Statistics Course

Science.gov (United States)

Björnsdóttir, Auðbjörg; Garfield, Joan; Everson, Michelle

2015-01-01

This study explored the use of two different types of collaborative tests in an online introductory statistics course. A study was designed and carried out to investigate three research questions: (1) What is the difference in students' learning between using consensus and non-consensus collaborative tests in the online environment?, (2) What is…

Is the modern koala ( Phascolarctos cinereus) a derived dwarf of a Pleistocene giant? Implications for testing megafauna extinction hypotheses

Science.gov (United States)

Price, Gilbert J.

2008-12-01

The modern Australian koala ( Phascolarctos cinereus) is commonly regarded as a dwarf descendent of a Late Pleistocene giant koala ( Ph. stirtoni). The implication of that hypothesis is that the giant koala survived the Late Pleistocene megafaunal extinction "event", albeit as a smaller body-sized form. It is important to be able to constrain rates of Late Pleistocene faunal turnover, an aspect reliant on having accurate taxonomic information of extinct species. The koala dwarfing hypothesis is tested here by using a temporally-constrained biogeographical record of fossil koalas, and a morphological character analysis. The contemporary occurrence of both taxa in pre-Late Pleistocene deposits and significant differences in dental morphologies between those forms suggests that the modern koala is not a derived dwarf of the Pleistocene giant koala. Thus, the giant-form was among a number of other giant mammals, lizards and birds that suffered extinction sometime during the Late Pleistocene. The potential phenomenon of dwarfing of other Late Pleistocene and Recent faunas, such as grey kangaroos, is commonly used as a test for or against various megafaunal extinction hypotheses. However, the results of this study also demonstrate that the dwarfing hypothesis has not been adequately tested for a suite of other taxa. Thus, until the dwarfing hypothesis can be more fully tested, a clear understanding of the fate of Late Pleistocene faunas that apparently survived the extinction "event", and the origins of many extant forms will remain elusive.

Observations in the statistical analysis of NBG-18 nuclear graphite strength tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hindley, Michael P.; Mitchell, Mark N.; Blaine, Deborah C.; Groenwold, Albert A.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Statistical analysis of NBG-18 nuclear graphite strength test. ► A Weibull distribution and normal distribution is tested for all data. ► A Bimodal distribution in the CS data is confirmed. ► The CS data set has the lowest variance. ► A Combined data set is formed and has Weibull distribution. - Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to report on the selection of a statistical distribution chosen to represent the experimental material strength of NBG-18 nuclear graphite. Three large sets of samples were tested during the material characterisation of the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor and Core Structure Ceramics materials. These sets of samples are tensile strength, flexural strength and compressive strength (CS) measurements. A relevant statistical fit is determined and the goodness of fit is also evaluated for each data set. The data sets are also normalised for ease of comparison, and combined into one representative data set. The validity of this approach is demonstrated. A second failure mode distribution is found on the CS test data. Identifying this failure mode supports the similar observations made in the past. The success of fitting the Weibull distribution through the normalised data sets allows us to improve the basis for the estimates of the variability. This could also imply that the variability on the graphite strength for the different strength measures is based on the same flaw distribution and thus a property of the material.

Building the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (CORSSA)

Science.gov (United States)

Michael, A. J.; Wiemer, S.; Zechar, J. D.; Hardebeck, J. L.; Naylor, M.; Zhuang, J.; Steacy, S.; Corssa Executive Committee

2010-12-01

Statistical seismology is critical to the understanding of seismicity, the testing of proposed earthquake prediction and forecasting methods, and the assessment of seismic hazard. Unfortunately, despite its importance to seismology - especially to those aspects with great impact on public policy - statistical seismology is mostly ignored in the education of seismologists, and there is no central repository for the existing open-source software tools. To remedy these deficiencies, and with the broader goal to enhance the quality of statistical seismology research, we have begun building the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (CORSSA). CORSSA is a web-based educational platform that is authoritative, up-to-date, prominent, and user-friendly. We anticipate that the users of CORSSA will range from beginning graduate students to experienced researchers. More than 20 scientists from around the world met for a week in Zurich in May 2010 to kick-start the creation of CORSSA: the format and initial table of contents were defined; a governing structure was organized; and workshop participants began drafting articles. CORSSA materials are organized with respect to six themes, each containing between four and eight articles. The CORSSA web page, www.corssa.org, officially unveiled on September 6, 2010, debuts with an initial set of approximately 10 to 15 articles available online for viewing and commenting with additional articles to be added over the coming months. Each article will be peer-reviewed and will present a balanced discussion, including illustrative examples and code snippets. Topics in the initial set of articles will include: introductions to both CORSSA and statistical seismology, basic statistical tests and their role in seismology; understanding seismicity catalogs and their problems; basic techniques for modeling seismicity; and methods for testing earthquake predictability hypotheses. A special article will compare and review

Statistical testing and power analysis for brain-wide association study.

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Weikang; Wan, Lin; Lu, Wenlian; Ma, Liang; Cheng, Fan; Cheng, Wei; Grünewald, Stefan; Feng, Jianfeng

2018-04-05

The identification of connexel-wise associations, which involves examining functional connectivities between pairwise voxels across the whole brain, is both statistically and computationally challenging. Although such a connexel-wise methodology has recently been adopted by brain-wide association studies (BWAS) to identify connectivity changes in several mental disorders, such as schizophrenia, autism and depression, the multiple correction and power analysis methods designed specifically for connexel-wise analysis are still lacking. Therefore, we herein report the development of a rigorous statistical framework for connexel-wise significance testing based on the Gaussian random field theory. It includes controlling the family-wise error rate (FWER) of multiple hypothesis testings using topological inference methods, and calculating power and sample size for a connexel-wise study. Our theoretical framework can control the false-positive rate accurately, as validated empirically using two resting-state fMRI datasets. Compared with Bonferroni correction and false discovery rate (FDR), it can reduce false-positive rate and increase statistical power by appropriately utilizing the spatial information of fMRI data. Importantly, our method bypasses the need of non-parametric permutation to correct for multiple comparison, thus, it can efficiently tackle large datasets with high resolution fMRI images. The utility of our method is shown in a case-control study. Our approach can identify altered functional connectivities in a major depression disorder dataset, whereas existing methods fail. A software package is available at https://github.com/weikanggong/BWAS. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing Multimodal Integration Hypotheses with Application to Schizophrenia Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Axelsen, Martin Christian; Bak, Nikolaj; Hansen, Lars Kai

2015-01-01

of the present paper is to propose a method for assessing these inter-modality dependencies. The approach is based on two permutations of an analyzed data set, each exploring different dependencies between and within modalities. The method was tested on the Kaggle MLSP 2014 Schizophrenia Classification Challenge...... data set which is composed of features from functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and structural MRI. The results support the use of a permutation strategy for testing conditional dependencies between modalities in a multimodal classification problem....

The Statistic Test on Influence of Surface Treatment to Fatigue Lifetime with Limited Data

OpenAIRE

Suhartono, Agus

2009-01-01

Justifications on the influences of two or more parameters on fatigue strength are some times problematic due to the scatter nature of the fatigue data. Statistic test can facilitate the evaluation, whether the changes in material characteristics as a result of specific parameters of interest is significant. The statistic tests were applied to fatigue data of AISI 1045 steel specimens. The specimens are consisted of as received specimen, shot peened specimen with 15 and 16 Almen intensity as ...

Conducting tests for statistically significant differences using forest inventory data

Science.gov (United States)

James A. Westfall; Scott A. Pugh; John W. Coulston

2013-01-01

Many forest inventory and monitoring programs are based on a sample of ground plots from which estimates of forest resources are derived. In addition to evaluating metrics such as number of trees or amount of cubic wood volume, it is often desirable to make comparisons between resource attributes. To properly conduct statistical tests for differences, it is imperative...

HyQue: evaluating hypotheses using Semantic Web technologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Callahan Alison

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Key to the success of e-Science is the ability to computationally evaluate expert-composed hypotheses for validity against experimental data. Researchers face the challenge of collecting, evaluating and integrating large amounts of diverse information to compose and evaluate a hypothesis. Confronted with rapidly accumulating data, researchers currently do not have the software tools to undertake the required information integration tasks. Results We present HyQue, a Semantic Web tool for querying scientific knowledge bases with the purpose of evaluating user submitted hypotheses. HyQue features a knowledge model to accommodate diverse hypotheses structured as events and represented using Semantic Web languages (RDF/OWL. Hypothesis validity is evaluated against experimental and literature-sourced evidence through a combination of SPARQL queries and evaluation rules. Inference over OWL ontologies (for type specifications, subclass assertions and parthood relations and retrieval of facts stored as Bio2RDF linked data provide support for a given hypothesis. We evaluate hypotheses of varying levels of detail about the genetic network controlling galactose metabolism in Saccharomyces cerevisiae to demonstrate the feasibility of deploying such semantic computing tools over a growing body of structured knowledge in Bio2RDF. Conclusions HyQue is a query-based hypothesis evaluation system that can currently evaluate hypotheses about the galactose metabolism in S. cerevisiae. Hypotheses as well as the supporting or refuting data are represented in RDF and directly linked to one another allowing scientists to browse from data to hypothesis and vice versa. HyQue hypotheses and data are available at http://semanticscience.org/projects/hyque.

HyQue: evaluating hypotheses using Semantic Web technologies

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Key to the success of e-Science is the ability to computationally evaluate expert-composed hypotheses for validity against experimental data. Researchers face the challenge of collecting, evaluating and integrating large amounts of diverse information to compose and evaluate a hypothesis. Confronted with rapidly accumulating data, researchers currently do not have the software tools to undertake the required information integration tasks. Results We present HyQue, a Semantic Web tool for querying scientific knowledge bases with the purpose of evaluating user submitted hypotheses. HyQue features a knowledge model to accommodate diverse hypotheses structured as events and represented using Semantic Web languages (RDF/OWL). Hypothesis validity is evaluated against experimental and literature-sourced evidence through a combination of SPARQL queries and evaluation rules. Inference over OWL ontologies (for type specifications, subclass assertions and parthood relations) and retrieval of facts stored as Bio2RDF linked data provide support for a given hypothesis. We evaluate hypotheses of varying levels of detail about the genetic network controlling galactose metabolism in Saccharomyces cerevisiae to demonstrate the feasibility of deploying such semantic computing tools over a growing body of structured knowledge in Bio2RDF. Conclusions HyQue is a query-based hypothesis evaluation system that can currently evaluate hypotheses about the galactose metabolism in S. cerevisiae. Hypotheses as well as the supporting or refuting data are represented in RDF and directly linked to one another allowing scientists to browse from data to hypothesis and vice versa. HyQue hypotheses and data are available at http://semanticscience.org/projects/hyque. PMID:21624158

HyQue: evaluating hypotheses using Semantic Web technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Callahan, Alison; Dumontier, Michel; Shah, Nigam H

2011-05-17

Key to the success of e-Science is the ability to computationally evaluate expert-composed hypotheses for validity against experimental data. Researchers face the challenge of collecting, evaluating and integrating large amounts of diverse information to compose and evaluate a hypothesis. Confronted with rapidly accumulating data, researchers currently do not have the software tools to undertake the required information integration tasks. We present HyQue, a Semantic Web tool for querying scientific knowledge bases with the purpose of evaluating user submitted hypotheses. HyQue features a knowledge model to accommodate diverse hypotheses structured as events and represented using Semantic Web languages (RDF/OWL). Hypothesis validity is evaluated against experimental and literature-sourced evidence through a combination of SPARQL queries and evaluation rules. Inference over OWL ontologies (for type specifications, subclass assertions and parthood relations) and retrieval of facts stored as Bio2RDF linked data provide support for a given hypothesis. We evaluate hypotheses of varying levels of detail about the genetic network controlling galactose metabolism in Saccharomyces cerevisiae to demonstrate the feasibility of deploying such semantic computing tools over a growing body of structured knowledge in Bio2RDF. HyQue is a query-based hypothesis evaluation system that can currently evaluate hypotheses about the galactose metabolism in S. cerevisiae. Hypotheses as well as the supporting or refuting data are represented in RDF and directly linked to one another allowing scientists to browse from data to hypothesis and vice versa. HyQue hypotheses and data are available at http://semanticscience.org/projects/hyque.

Testing independence of bivariate interval-censored data using modified Kendall's tau statistic.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Yuneung; Lim, Johan; Park, DoHwan

2015-11-01

In this paper, we study a nonparametric procedure to test independence of bivariate interval censored data; for both current status data (case 1 interval-censored data) and case 2 interval-censored data. To do it, we propose a score-based modification of the Kendall's tau statistic for bivariate interval-censored data. Our modification defines the Kendall's tau statistic with expected numbers of concordant and disconcordant pairs of data. The performance of the modified approach is illustrated by simulation studies and application to the AIDS study. We compare our method to alternative approaches such as the two-stage estimation method by Sun et al. (Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 2006) and the multiple imputation method by Betensky and Finkelstein (Statistics in Medicine, 1999b). © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Statistical Methods for the detection of answer copying on achievement tests

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sotaridona, Leonardo

2003-01-01

This thesis contains a collection of studies where statistical methods for the detection of answer copying on achievement tests in multiple-choice format are proposed and investigated. Although all methods are suited to detect answer copying, each method is designed to address specific

Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Understanding the properties of diagnostic tests - Part 1.

Science.gov (United States)

Ranganathan, Priya; Aggarwal, Rakesh

2018-01-01

In this article in our series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we look at some of the attributes of diagnostic tests (i.e., tests which are used to determine whether an individual does or does not have disease). The next article in this series will focus on further issues related to diagnostic tests.

Testing University Rankings Statistically: Why this Perhaps is not such a Good Idea after All. Some Reflections on Statistical Power, Effect Size, Random Sampling and Imaginary Populations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schneider, Jesper Wiborg

2012-01-01

In this paper we discuss and question the use of statistical significance tests in relation to university rankings as recently suggested. We outline the assumptions behind and interpretations of statistical significance tests and relate this to examples from the recent SCImago Institutions Rankin...

A Comparison of Several Statistical Tests of Reciprocity of Self-Disclosure.

Science.gov (United States)

Dindia, Kathryn

1988-01-01

Reports the results of a study that used several statistical tests of reciprocity of self-disclosure. Finds little evidence for reciprocity of self-disclosure, and concludes that either reciprocity is an illusion, or that different or more sophisticated methods are needed to detect it. (MS)

Hypotheses about geoglyphs at Nasca, Peru: new discoveries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaroslav Klokočník

2016-07-01

Full Text Available The known hypotheses about the reasons why the geoglyphs in the Nasca and Palpa region of Peru were created are many: roads/paths, rituals/ceremonials, use of hallucinogens, astronomical meaning, influence of extraterrestrials, underground water… and so on. We present a new hypothesis, formulated by J. Sonnek (first published in 2011 in the context of all previous hypotheses.1 Sonnek explains the geoglyphs as tidied work areas for the production of rope and nets, although he goes much further than Stierlin. This eccentric hypothesis now has not only experimental but also archaeological and ethnographical support, which is presented here. Geoglyphs of a special shape were discovered in the pampas; they may represent technical objects – different types of ‘rope twisters’. Following this idea, Sonnek made technical devices (using today’s materials and tested them in practice; they work perfectly, see his YouTube videos.2 In November 2012, wooden pieces, which may be the remnants of ropemaking, were collected from the pampa near the towns of Nasca and Palpa, in vicinity of these hypothetic ropemaking places. Radiocarbon testing by 14C standardized radio-carbon age according to Stuiver-Polach convention and Accelerator Mass Spectroscopy (AMS of these wood pieces shows the age to be in a wide range from Early Nasca to the 17th century (and to our epoch with a fake geoglyph, too, thus supporting (but surely not proving the new hypothesis. Moreover, in the Quechua language, the word huasca, waskha (read: uasca means a rope or cord or place where these are produced. This word is very similar to ‘nasca’.

Testing the statistical isotropy of large scale structure with multipole vectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zunckel, Caroline; Huterer, Dragan; Starkman, Glenn D.

2011-01-01

A fundamental assumption in cosmology is that of statistical isotropy - that the Universe, on average, looks the same in every direction in the sky. Statistical isotropy has recently been tested stringently using cosmic microwave background data, leading to intriguing results on large angular scales. Here we apply some of the same techniques used in the cosmic microwave background to the distribution of galaxies on the sky. Using the multipole vector approach, where each multipole in the harmonic decomposition of galaxy density field is described by unit vectors and an amplitude, we lay out the basic formalism of how to reconstruct the multipole vectors and their statistics out of galaxy survey catalogs. We apply the algorithm to synthetic galaxy maps, and study the sensitivity of the multipole vector reconstruction accuracy to the density, depth, sky coverage, and pixelization of galaxy catalog maps.

Comparison of likelihood testing procedures for parallel systems with covariances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ayman Baklizi; Isa Daud; Noor Akma Ibrahim

1998-01-01

In this paper we considered investigating and comparing the behavior of the likelihood ratio, the Rao's and the Wald's statistics for testing hypotheses on the parameters of the simple linear regression model based on parallel systems with covariances. These statistics are asymptotically equivalent (Barndorff-Nielsen and Cox, 1994). However, their relative performances in finite samples are generally known. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to stimulate the sizes and the powers of these statistics for complete samples and in the presence of time censoring. Comparisons of the statistics are made according to the attainment of assumed size of the test and their powers at various points in the parameter space. The results show that the likelihood ratio statistics appears to have the best performance in terms of the attainment of the assumed size of the test. Power comparisons show that the Rao statistic has some advantage over the Wald statistic in almost all of the space of alternatives while likelihood ratio statistic occupies either the first or the last position in term of power. Overall, the likelihood ratio statistic appears to be more appropriate to the model under study, especially for small sample sizes

Testing hypotheses that link wood anatomy to cavitation resistance and hydraulic conductivity in the genus Acer.

Science.gov (United States)

Lens, Frederic; Sperry, John S; Christman, Mairgareth A; Choat, Brendan; Rabaey, David; Jansen, Steven

2011-05-01

• Vulnerability to cavitation and conductive efficiency depend on xylem anatomy. We tested a large range of structure-function hypotheses, some for the first time, within a single genus to minimize phylogenetic 'noise' and maximize detection of functionally relevant variation. • This integrative study combined in-depth anatomical observations using light, scanning and transmission electron microscopy of seven Acer taxa, and compared these observations with empirical measures of xylem hydraulics. • Our results reveal a 2 MPa range in species' mean cavitation pressure (MCP). MCP was strongly correlated with intervessel pit structure (membrane thickness and porosity, chamber depth), weakly correlated with pit number per vessel, and not related to pit area per vessel. At the tissue level, there was a strong correlation between MCP and mechanical strength parameters, and some of the first evidence is provided for the functional significance of vessel grouping and thickenings on inner vessel walls. In addition, a strong trade-off was observed between xylem-specific conductivity and MCP. Vessel length and intervessel wall characteristics were implicated in this safety-efficiency trade-off. • Cavitation resistance and hydraulic conductivity in Acer appear to be controlled by a very complex interaction between tissue, vessel network and pit characteristics. © 2010 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2010 New Phytologist Trust.

Statistical characteristics of mechanical heart valve cavitation in accelerated testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Changfu; Hwang, Ned H C; Lin, Yu-Kweng M

2004-07-01

Cavitation damage has been observed on mechanical heart valves (MHVs) undergoing accelerated testing. Cavitation itself can be modeled as a stochastic process, as it varies from beat to beat of the testing machine. This in-vitro study was undertaken to investigate the statistical characteristics of MHV cavitation. A 25-mm St. Jude Medical bileaflet MHV (SJM 25) was tested in an accelerated tester at various pulse rates, ranging from 300 to 1,000 bpm, with stepwise increments of 100 bpm. A miniature pressure transducer was placed near a leaflet tip on the inflow side of the valve, to monitor regional transient pressure fluctuations at instants of valve closure. The pressure trace associated with each beat was passed through a 70 kHz high-pass digital filter to extract the high-frequency oscillation (HFO) components resulting from the collapse of cavitation bubbles. Three intensity-related measures were calculated for each HFO burst: its time span; its local root-mean-square (LRMS) value; and the area enveloped by the absolute value of the HFO pressure trace and the time axis, referred to as cavitation impulse. These were treated as stochastic processes, of which the first-order probability density functions (PDFs) were estimated for each test rate. Both the LRMS value and cavitation impulse were log-normal distributed, and the time span was normal distributed. These distribution laws were consistent at different test rates. The present investigation was directed at understanding MHV cavitation as a stochastic process. The results provide a basis for establishing further the statistical relationship between cavitation intensity and time-evolving cavitation damage on MHV surfaces. These data are required to assess and compare the performance of MHVs of different designs.

TRANSIT TIMING OBSERVATIONS FROM KEPLER. VI. POTENTIALLY INTERESTING CANDIDATE SYSTEMS FROM FOURIER-BASED STATISTICAL TESTS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steffen, Jason H.; Ford, Eric B.; Rowe, Jason F.; Borucki, William J.; Bryson, Steve; Caldwell, Douglas A.; Jenkins, Jon M.; Koch, David G.; Sanderfer, Dwight T.; Seader, Shawn; Twicken, Joseph D.; Fabrycky, Daniel C.; Holman, Matthew J.; Welsh, William F.; Batalha, Natalie M.; Ciardi, David R.; Kjeldsen, Hans; Prša, Andrej

2012-01-01

We analyze the deviations of transit times from a linear ephemeris for the Kepler Objects of Interest (KOI) through quarter six of science data. We conduct two statistical tests for all KOIs and a related statistical test for all pairs of KOIs in multi-transiting systems. These tests identify several systems which show potentially interesting transit timing variations (TTVs). Strong TTV systems have been valuable for the confirmation of planets and their mass measurements. Many of the systems identified in this study should prove fruitful for detailed TTV studies.

Transit timing observations from Kepler. VI. Potentially interesting candidate systems from fourier-based statistical tests

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Steffen, J.H.; Ford, E.B.; Rowe, J.F.

2012-01-01

We analyze the deviations of transit times from a linear ephemeris for the Kepler Objects of Interest (KOI) through quarter six of science data. We conduct two statistical tests for all KOIs and a related statistical test for all pairs of KOIs in multi-transiting systems. These tests identify...... several systems which show potentially interesting transit timing variations (TTVs). Strong TTV systems have been valuable for the confirmation of planets and their mass measurements. Many of the systems identified in this study should prove fruitful for detailed TTV studies....

Cross-situational statistical word learning in young children.

Science.gov (United States)

Suanda, Sumarga H; Mugwanya, Nassali; Namy, Laura L

2014-10-01

Recent empirical work has highlighted the potential role of cross-situational statistical word learning in children's early vocabulary development. In the current study, we tested 5- to 7-year-old children's cross-situational learning by presenting children with a series of ambiguous naming events containing multiple words and multiple referents. Children rapidly learned word-to-object mappings by attending to the co-occurrence regularities across these ambiguous naming events. The current study begins to address the mechanisms underlying children's learning by demonstrating that the diversity of learning contexts affects performance. The implications of the current findings for the role of cross-situational word learning at different points in development are discussed along with the methodological implications of employing school-aged children to test hypotheses regarding the mechanisms supporting early word learning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Price limits and stock market efficiency: Evidence from rolling bicorrelation test statistic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Kian-Ping; Brooks, Robert D.

2009-01-01

Using the rolling bicorrelation test statistic, the present paper compares the efficiency of stock markets from China, Korea and Taiwan in selected sub-periods with different price limits regimes. The statistical results do not support the claims that restrictive price limits and price limits per se are jeopardizing market efficiency. However, the evidence does not imply that price limits have no effect on the price discovery process but rather suggesting that market efficiency is not merely determined by price limits.

A survey of etiologic hypotheses among testicular cancer researchers.

Science.gov (United States)

Stang, A; Trabert, B; Rusner, C; Poole, C; Almstrup, K; Rajpert-De Meyts, E; McGlynn, K A

2015-01-01

Basic research results can provide new ideas and hypotheses to be examined in epidemiological studies. We conducted a survey among testicular cancer researchers on hypotheses concerning the etiology of this malignancy. All researchers on the mailing list of Copenhagen Testis Cancer Workshops and corresponding authors of PubMed-indexed articles identified by the search term 'testicular cancer' and published within 10 years (in total 2750 recipients) were invited to respond to an e-mail-based survey. Participants of the 8th Copenhagen Testis Cancer Workshop in May 2014 were subsequently asked to rate the plausibility of the suggested etiologic hypotheses on a scale of 1 (very implausible) to 10 (very plausible). This report describes the methodology of the survey, the score distributions by individual hypotheses, hypothesis group, and the participants' major research fields, and discuss the hypotheses that scored as most plausible. We also present plans for improving the survey that may be repeated at a next international meeting of experts in testicular cancer. Overall 52 of 99 (53%) registered participants of the 8th Copenhagen Testis Cancer Workshop submitted the plausibility rating form. Fourteen of 27 hypotheses were related to exposures during pregnancy. Hypotheses with the highest mean plausibility ratings were either related to pre-natal exposures or exposures that might have an effect during pregnancy and in post-natal life. The results of the survey may be helpful for triggering more specific etiologic hypotheses that include factors related to endocrine disruption, DNA damage, inflammation, and nutrition during pregnancy. The survey results may stimulate a multidisciplinary discussion about new etiologic hypotheses of testicular cancer. Published 2014. This article is a U. S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Statistical methods for data analysis in particle physics

CERN Document Server

Lista, Luca

2017-01-01

This concise set of course-based notes provides the reader with the main concepts and tools needed to perform statistical analyses of experimental data, in particular in the field of high-energy physics (HEP). First, the book provides an introduction to probability theory and basic statistics, mainly intended as a refresher from readers’ advanced undergraduate studies, but also to help them clearly distinguish between the Frequentist and Bayesian approaches and interpretations in subsequent applications. More advanced concepts and applications are gradually introduced, culminating in the chapter on both discoveries and upper limits, as many applications in HEP concern hypothesis testing, where the main goal is often to provide better and better limits so as to eventually be able to distinguish between competing hypotheses, or to rule out some of them altogether. Many worked-out examples will help newcomers to the field and graduate students alike understand the pitfalls involved in applying theoretical co...

A Statistical Perspective on Highly Accelerated Testing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thomas, Edward V. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-02-01

Highly accelerated life testing has been heavily promoted at Sandia (and elsewhere) as a means to rapidly identify product weaknesses caused by flaws in the product's design or manufacturing process. During product development, a small number of units are forced to fail at high stress. The failed units are then examined to determine the root causes of failure. The identification of the root causes of product failures exposed by highly accelerated life testing can instigate changes to the product's design and/or manufacturing process that result in a product with increased reliability. It is widely viewed that this qualitative use of highly accelerated life testing (often associated with the acronym HALT) can be useful. However, highly accelerated life testing has also been proposed as a quantitative means for "demonstrating" the reliability of a product where unreliability is associated with loss of margin via an identified and dominating failure mechanism. It is assumed that the dominant failure mechanism can be accelerated by changing the level of a stress factor that is assumed to be related to the dominant failure mode. In extreme cases, a minimal number of units (often from a pre-production lot) are subjected to a single highly accelerated stress relative to normal use. If no (or, sufficiently few) units fail at this high stress level, some might claim that a certain level of reliability has been demonstrated (relative to normal use conditions). Underlying this claim are assumptions regarding the level of knowledge associated with the relationship between the stress level and the probability of failure. The primary purpose of this document is to discuss (from a statistical perspective) the efficacy of using accelerated life testing protocols (and, in particular, "highly accelerated" protocols) to make quantitative inferences concerning the performance of a product (e.g., reliability) when in fact there is lack-of-knowledge and uncertainty concerning

Online incidental statistical learning of audiovisual word sequences in adults: a registered report.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuppuraj, Sengottuvel; Duta, Mihaela; Thompson, Paul; Bishop, Dorothy

2018-02-01

Statistical learning has been proposed as a key mechanism in language learning. Our main goal was to examine whether adults are capable of simultaneously extracting statistical dependencies in a task where stimuli include a range of structures amenable to statistical learning within a single paradigm. We devised an online statistical learning task using real word auditory-picture sequences that vary in two dimensions: (i) predictability and (ii) adjacency of dependent elements. This task was followed by an offline recall task to probe learning of each sequence type. We registered three hypotheses with specific predictions. First, adults would extract regular patterns from continuous stream (effect of grammaticality). Second, within grammatical conditions, they would show differential speeding up for each condition as a factor of statistical complexity of the condition and exposure. Third, our novel approach to measure online statistical learning would be reliable in showing individual differences in statistical learning ability. Further, we explored the relation between statistical learning and a measure of verbal short-term memory (STM). Forty-two participants were tested and retested after an interval of at least 3 days on our novel statistical learning task. We analysed the reaction time data using a novel regression discontinuity approach. Consistent with prediction, participants showed a grammaticality effect, agreeing with the predicted order of difficulty for learning different statistical structures. Furthermore, a learning index from the task showed acceptable test-retest reliability ( r  = 0.67). However, STM did not correlate with statistical learning. We discuss the findings noting the benefits of online measures in tracking the learning process.

Economic and evolutionary hypotheses for cross-population variation in parochialism.

Science.gov (United States)

Hruschka, Daniel J; Henrich, Joseph

2013-09-11

Human populations differ reliably in the degree to which people favor family, friends, and community members over strangers and outsiders. In the last decade, researchers have begun to propose several economic and evolutionary hypotheses for these cross-population differences in parochialism. In this paper, we outline major current theories and review recent attempts to test them. We also discuss the key methodological challenges in assessing these diverse economic and evolutionary theories for cross-population differences in parochialism.

A testing procedure for wind turbine generators based on the power grid statistical model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Farajzadehbibalan, Saber; Ramezani, Mohammad Hossein; Nielsen, Peter

2017-01-01

In this study, a comprehensive test procedure is developed to test wind turbine generators with a hardware-in-loop setup. The procedure employs the statistical model of the power grid considering the restrictions of the test facility and system dynamics. Given the model in the latent space...

Person Fit Based on Statistical Process Control in an Adaptive Testing Environment. Research Report 98-13.

Science.gov (United States)

van Krimpen-Stoop, Edith M. L. A.; Meijer, Rob R.

Person-fit research in the context of paper-and-pencil tests is reviewed, and some specific problems regarding person fit in the context of computerized adaptive testing (CAT) are discussed. Some new methods are proposed to investigate person fit in a CAT environment. These statistics are based on Statistical Process Control (SPC) theory. A…

Conceptual and statistical problems associated with the use of diversity indices in ecology.

Science.gov (United States)

Barrantes, Gilbert; Sandoval, Luis

2009-09-01

Diversity indices, particularly the Shannon-Wiener index, have extensively been used in analyzing patterns of diversity at different geographic and ecological scales. These indices have serious conceptual and statistical problems which make comparisons of species richness or species abundances across communities nearly impossible. There is often no a single statistical method that retains all information needed to answer even a simple question. However, multivariate analyses could be used instead of diversity indices, such as cluster analyses or multiple regressions. More complex multivariate analyses, such as Canonical Correspondence Analysis, provide very valuable information on environmental variables associated to the presence and abundance of the species in a community. In addition, particular hypotheses associated to changes in species richness across localities, or change in abundance of one, or a group of species can be tested using univariate, bivariate, and/or rarefaction statistical tests. The rarefaction method has proved to be robust to standardize all samples to a common size. Even the simplest method as reporting the number of species per taxonomic category possibly provides more information than a diversity index value.

Outcomes Definitions and Statistical Tests in Oncology Studies: A Systematic Review of the Reporting Consistency.

Science.gov (United States)

Rivoirard, Romain; Duplay, Vianney; Oriol, Mathieu; Tinquaut, Fabien; Chauvin, Franck; Magne, Nicolas; Bourmaud, Aurelie

2016-01-01

Quality of reporting for Randomized Clinical Trials (RCTs) in oncology was analyzed in several systematic reviews, but, in this setting, there is paucity of data for the outcomes definitions and consistency of reporting for statistical tests in RCTs and Observational Studies (OBS). The objective of this review was to describe those two reporting aspects, for OBS and RCTs in oncology. From a list of 19 medical journals, three were retained for analysis, after a random selection: British Medical Journal (BMJ), Annals of Oncology (AoO) and British Journal of Cancer (BJC). All original articles published between March 2009 and March 2014 were screened. Only studies whose main outcome was accompanied by a corresponding statistical test were included in the analysis. Studies based on censored data were excluded. Primary outcome was to assess quality of reporting for description of primary outcome measure in RCTs and of variables of interest in OBS. A logistic regression was performed to identify covariates of studies potentially associated with concordance of tests between Methods and Results parts. 826 studies were included in the review, and 698 were OBS. Variables were described in Methods section for all OBS studies and primary endpoint was clearly detailed in Methods section for 109 RCTs (85.2%). 295 OBS (42.2%) and 43 RCTs (33.6%) had perfect agreement for reported statistical test between Methods and Results parts. In multivariable analysis, variable "number of included patients in study" was associated with test consistency: aOR (adjusted Odds Ratio) for third group compared to first group was equal to: aOR Grp3 = 0.52 [0.31-0.89] (P value = 0.009). Variables in OBS and primary endpoint in RCTs are reported and described with a high frequency. However, statistical tests consistency between methods and Results sections of OBS is not always noted. Therefore, we encourage authors and peer reviewers to verify consistency of statistical tests in oncology studies.

A statistical test for outlier identification in data envelopment analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Morteza Khodabin

2010-09-01

Full Text Available In the use of peer group data to assess individual, typical or best practice performance, the effective detection of outliers is critical for achieving useful results. In these ‘‘deterministic’’ frontier models, statistical theory is now mostly available. This paper deals with the statistical pared sample method and its capability of detecting outliers in data envelopment analysis. In the presented method, each observation is deleted from the sample once and the resulting linear program is solved, leading to a distribution of efficiency estimates. Based on the achieved distribution, a pared test is designed to identify the potential outlier(s. We illustrate the method through a real data set. The method could be used in a first step, as an exploratory data analysis, before using any frontier estimation.

Association testing for next-generation sequencing data using score statistics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skotte, Line; Korneliussen, Thorfinn Sand; Albrechtsen, Anders

2012-01-01

computationally feasible due to the use of score statistics. As part of the joint likelihood, we model the distribution of the phenotypes using a generalized linear model framework, which works for both quantitative and discrete phenotypes. Thus, the method presented here is applicable to case-control studies...... of genotype calls into account have been proposed; most require numerical optimization which for large-scale data is not always computationally feasible. We show that using a score statistic for the joint likelihood of observed phenotypes and observed sequencing data provides an attractive approach...... to association testing for next-generation sequencing data. The joint model accounts for the genotype classification uncertainty via the posterior probabilities of the genotypes given the observed sequencing data, which gives the approach higher power than methods based on called genotypes. This strategy remains...

Interpreting Statistical Significance Test Results: A Proposed New "What If" Method.

Science.gov (United States)

Kieffer, Kevin M.; Thompson, Bruce

As the 1994 publication manual of the American Psychological Association emphasized, "p" values are affected by sample size. As a result, it can be helpful to interpret the results of statistical significant tests in a sample size context by conducting so-called "what if" analyses. However, these methods can be inaccurate…

Specialization and generalization in the diversification of phytophagous insects: tests of the musical chairs and oscillation hypotheses

Science.gov (United States)

Hardy, Nate B.; Otto, Sarah P.

2014-01-01

Evolutionary biologists have often assumed that ecological generalism comes at the expense of less intense exploitation of specific resources and that this trade-off will promote the evolution of ecologically specialized daughter species. Using a phylogenetic comparative approach with butterflies as a model system, we test hypotheses that incorporate changes in niche breadth and location into explanations of the taxonomic diversification of insect herbivores. Specifically, we compare the oscillation hypothesis, where speciation is driven by host-plant generalists giving rise to specialist daughter species, to the musical chairs hypothesis, where speciation is driven by host-plant switching, without changes in niche breadth. Contrary to the predictions of the oscillation hypothesis, we recover a negative relationship between host-plant breadth and diversification rate and find that changes in host breadth are seldom coupled to speciation events. By contrast, we present evidence for a positive relationship between rates of host switching and butterfly diversification, consonant with the musical chairs hypothesis. These results suggest that the costs of trophic generalism in plant-feeding insects may have been overvalued and that transitions from generalists to ecological specialists may not be an important driver of speciation in general. PMID:25274368

Scientific 'Laws', 'Hypotheses' and 'Theories'

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

verified, the hypothesis changes from the status of a 'mere' hypothesis, and ... a pre-existing law and the body of facts upon which that law is based. Hypotheses .... implicit belief that order objectively exists in nature, and that scientific laws ...

Statistical theory a concise introduction

CERN Document Server

Abramovich, Felix

2013-01-01

Introduction Preamble Likelihood Sufficiency Minimal sufficiency Completeness Exponential family of distributionsPoint Estimation Introduction Maximum likelihood estimation Method of moments Method of least squares Goodness-of-estimation. Mean squared error. Unbiased estimationConfidence Intervals, Bounds, and Regions Introduction Quoting the estimation error Confidence intervalsConfidence bounds Confidence regionsHypothesis Testing Introduction Simple hypothesesComposite hypothesesHypothesis testing and confidence intervals Sequential testingAsymptotic Analysis Introduction Convergence and consistency in MSE Convergence and consistency in probability Convergence in distribution The central limit theorem Asymptotically normal consistency Asymptotic confidence intervals Asymptotic normality of the MLE Multiparameter case Asymptotic distribution of the GLRT. Wilks' theorem.Bayesian Inference Introduction Choice of priors Point estimation Interval estimation. Credible sets. Hypothesis testingElements of Statisti...

MIDAS: Regionally linear multivariate discriminative statistical mapping.

Science.gov (United States)

Varol, Erdem; Sotiras, Aristeidis; Davatzikos, Christos

2018-07-01

Statistical parametric maps formed via voxel-wise mass-univariate tests, such as the general linear model, are commonly used to test hypotheses about regionally specific effects in neuroimaging cross-sectional studies where each subject is represented by a single image. Despite being informative, these techniques remain limited as they ignore multivariate relationships in the data. Most importantly, the commonly employed local Gaussian smoothing, which is important for accounting for registration errors and making the data follow Gaussian distributions, is usually chosen in an ad hoc fashion. Thus, it is often suboptimal for the task of detecting group differences and correlations with non-imaging variables. Information mapping techniques, such as searchlight, which use pattern classifiers to exploit multivariate information and obtain more powerful statistical maps, have become increasingly popular in recent years. However, existing methods may lead to important interpretation errors in practice (i.e., misidentifying a cluster as informative, or failing to detect truly informative voxels), while often being computationally expensive. To address these issues, we introduce a novel efficient multivariate statistical framework for cross-sectional studies, termed MIDAS, seeking highly sensitive and specific voxel-wise brain maps, while leveraging the power of regional discriminant analysis. In MIDAS, locally linear discriminative learning is applied to estimate the pattern that best discriminates between two groups, or predicts a variable of interest. This pattern is equivalent to local filtering by an optimal kernel whose coefficients are the weights of the linear discriminant. By composing information from all neighborhoods that contain a given voxel, MIDAS produces a statistic that collectively reflects the contribution of the voxel to the regional classifiers as well as the discriminative power of the classifiers. Critically, MIDAS efficiently assesses the

Economic and evolutionary hypotheses for cross-population variation in parochialism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Jacob Hruschka

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Human populations differ reliably in the degree to which people favor family, friends and community members over strangers and outsiders. In the last decade, researchers have begun to propose several economic and evolutionary hypotheses for these cross-population differences in parochialism. In this paper, we outline major current theories and review recent attempts to test them. We also discuss the key methodological challenges in assessing these diverse economic and evolutionary theories for cross-population differences in parochialism.

Scientific 'Laws', 'Hypotheses' and 'Theories'

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

theories, defines a hypothesis as "any supposition which we may ... about the origin of the solar system are also hypotheses of this type. They are about the birth of the planets, an event, which has happened, in the past history of our Universe.

New media applications and their potential for the advancement of public perceptions of archaeoastronomy and for the testing of archaeoastronomical hypotheses.

Science.gov (United States)

MacDonald, J.

This paper looks at the use of astronomical programmes and the development of new media modeling techniques as a means to better understand archaeoastronomy. The paper also suggests that these new methods and technologies are a means of furthering the public perceptions of archaeoastronomy and the important role that 'astronomy' played in the history and development of human culture. This discussion is rooted in a computer simulation of Stonehenge and its land and skyscape. The integration of the astronomy software allows viewing horizon astronomical lignments in relation to digitally recreated Neolithic/Early Bronze Age (EBA) monumental architecture. This work shows how modern virtual modelling techniques can be a tool for testing archaeoastronomical hypotheses, as well as a demonstrative tool for teaching and promoting archaeoastronomy in mainstream media.

Quantum Statistical Testing of a Quantum Random Number Generator

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Humble, Travis S [ORNL

2014-01-01

The unobservable elements in a quantum technology, e.g., the quantum state, complicate system verification against promised behavior. Using model-based system engineering, we present methods for verifying the opera- tion of a prototypical quantum random number generator. We begin with the algorithmic design of the QRNG followed by the synthesis of its physical design requirements. We next discuss how quantum statistical testing can be used to verify device behavior as well as detect device bias. We conclude by highlighting how system design and verification methods must influence effort to certify future quantum technologies.

Test the Overall Significance of p-values by Using Joint Tail Probability of Ordered p-values as Test Statistic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fang, Yongxiang; Wit, Ernst

2008-01-01

Fisher’s combined probability test is the most commonly used method to test the overall significance of a set independent p-values. However, it is very obviously that Fisher’s statistic is more sensitive to smaller p-values than to larger p-value and a small p-value may overrule the other p-values

Do Job Demands of Chinese Manufacturing Employees Predict Positive or Negative Outcomes? A Test of Competing Hypotheses.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheung, Janelle H; Sinclair, Robert R; Shi, Junqi; Wang, Mo

2015-12-01

Karasek's job demands-control (JDC) model posits that job control can buffer against the harmful effects of demands experienced by employees. A large volume of JDC research has obtained support for the main effects of demands and control, but not the interactive effects. Recent research on the challenge-hindrance stressors framework, however, found that work stressors may not always be deleterious, suggesting alternative hypotheses about the effects of demands and control. The present study therefore examined competing hypotheses concerning the effects of job demands on occupational health outcomes. Using a sample of 316 employees in a Chinese manufacturing company, we found that, consistent with the challenge-hindrance framework, production demands were challenge stressors associated with favourable outcomes (i.e. job satisfaction and psychological well-being). In addition, results showed that the interactive role of job control depended on the nature of outcome variables. Future recommendations and implications of findings are discussed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Mathematical statistics

CERN Document Server

Pestman, Wiebe R

2009-01-01

This textbook provides a broad and solid introduction to mathematical statistics, including the classical subjects hypothesis testing, normal regression analysis, and normal analysis of variance. In addition, non-parametric statistics and vectorial statistics are considered, as well as applications of stochastic analysis in modern statistics, e.g., Kolmogorov-Smirnov testing, smoothing techniques, robustness and density estimation. For students with some elementary mathematical background. With many exercises. Prerequisites from measure theory and linear algebra are presented.

Scientific'Laws','Hypotheses' and'Theories'

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 3; Issue 12. Scientific 'Laws', 'Hypotheses' and 'Theories' - How are They Related? J R Lakshmana Rao. General Article Volume 3 Issue 12 December 1998 pp 55-61. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

Dissolution curve comparisons through the F(2) parameter, a Bayesian extension of the f(2) statistic.

Science.gov (United States)

Novick, Steven; Shen, Yan; Yang, Harry; Peterson, John; LeBlond, Dave; Altan, Stan

2015-01-01

Dissolution (or in vitro release) studies constitute an important aspect of pharmaceutical drug development. One important use of such studies is for justifying a biowaiver for post-approval changes which requires establishing equivalence between the new and old product. We propose a statistically rigorous modeling approach for this purpose based on the estimation of what we refer to as the F2 parameter, an extension of the commonly used f2 statistic. A Bayesian test procedure is proposed in relation to a set of composite hypotheses that capture the similarity requirement on the absolute mean differences between test and reference dissolution profiles. Several examples are provided to illustrate the application. Results of our simulation study comparing the performance of f2 and the proposed method show that our Bayesian approach is comparable to or in many cases superior to the f2 statistic as a decision rule. Further useful extensions of the method, such as the use of continuous-time dissolution modeling, are considered.

Monte Carlo, hypothesis-tests for rare events superimposed on a background

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Avignone, F.T. III; Miley, H.S.; Padgett, W.J.; Weier, D.W.

1985-01-01

We describe two techniques to search for small numbers of counts under a peak of known shape and superimposed on a background with statistical fluctuations. Many comparisons of a single experimental spectrum with computer simulations of the peak and background are made. From these we calculate the probability that y hypothesized counts in the peaks of the simulations, will result in a number larger than that observed in a given energy interval (bin) in the experimental spectrum. This is done for many values of the hypothesized number y. One procedure is very similar to testing a statistical hypothesis and can be analytically applied. Another is presented which is related to pattern recognition techniques and is less sensitive to the uncertainty in the mean. Sample applications to double beta decay data are presented. (orig.)

Message and source factors, market uncertainty and extrafunctional information processing : hypotheses and empirical evidence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Song, X.M.

2001-01-01

This article examines how the perceived quality of extrafunctional information improves the innovation management process and contributes to success with innovations. Data collected from 420 Japanese managers and 270 US managers are used to test hypotheses about the antecedents of satisfaction with

A Statistical Analysis of the Relationship between Harmonic Surprise and Preference in Popular Music.

Science.gov (United States)

Miles, Scott A; Rosen, David S; Grzywacz, Norberto M

2017-01-01

Studies have shown that some musical pieces may preferentially activate reward centers in the brain. Less is known, however, about the structural aspects of music that are associated with this activation. Based on the music cognition literature, we propose two hypotheses for why some musical pieces are preferred over others. The first, the Absolute-Surprise Hypothesis, states that unexpected events in music directly lead to pleasure. The second, the Contrastive-Surprise Hypothesis, proposes that the juxtaposition of unexpected events and subsequent expected events leads to an overall rewarding response. We tested these hypotheses within the framework of information theory, using the measure of "surprise." This information-theoretic variable mathematically describes how improbable an event is given a known distribution. We performed a statistical investigation of surprise in the harmonic structure of songs within a representative corpus of Western popular music, namely, the McGill Billboard Project corpus. We found that chords of songs in the top quartile of the Billboard chart showed greater average surprise than those in the bottom quartile. We also found that the different sections within top-quartile songs varied more in their average surprise than the sections within bottom-quartile songs. The results of this study are consistent with both the Absolute- and Contrastive-Surprise Hypotheses. Although these hypotheses seem contradictory to one another, we cannot yet discard the possibility that both absolute and contrastive types of surprise play roles in the enjoyment of popular music. We call this possibility the Hybrid-Surprise Hypothesis. The results of this statistical investigation have implications for both music cognition and the human neural mechanisms of esthetic judgments.

IEEE Std 101-1987: IEEE guide for the statistical analysis of thermal life test data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

This revision of IEEE Std 101-1972 describes statistical analyses for data from thermally accelerated aging tests. It explains the basis and use of statistical calculations for an engineer or scientist. Accelerated test procedures usually call for a number of specimens to be aged at each of several temperatures appreciably above normal operating temperatures. High temperatures are chosen to produce specimen failures (according to specified failure criteria) in typically one week to one year. The test objective is to determine the dependence of median life on temperature from the data, and to estimate, by extrapolation, the median life to be expected at service temperature. This guide presents methods for analyzing such data and for comparing test data on different materials

Application of statistical methods to the testing of nuclear counting assemblies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, J.P.; Friedling, G.

1965-01-01

This report describes the application of the hypothesis test theory to the control of the 'statistical purity' and of the stability of the counting batteries used for measurements on activation detectors in research reactors. The principles involved and the experimental results obtained at Cadarache on batteries operating with the reactors PEGGY and AZUR are given. (authors) [fr

Multilevel Assessment of the Predictive Validity of Teacher Made Tests in the Zimbabwean Primary Education Sector

Science.gov (United States)

Machingambi, Zadzisai

2017-01-01

The principal focus of this study was to undertake a multilevel assessment of the predictive validity of teacher made tests in the Zimbabwean primary education sector. A correlational research design was adopted for the study, mainly to allow for statistical treatment of data and subsequent classical hypotheses testing using the spearman's rho.…

Enhancing Dairy Manufacturing through customer feedback: A statistical approach

Science.gov (United States)

Vineesh, D.; Anbuudayasankar, S. P.; Narassima, M. S.

2018-02-01

Dairy products have become inevitable of habitual diet. This study aims to investigate the consumers’ satisfaction towards dairy products so as to provide useful information for the manufacturers which would serve as useful inputs for enriching the quality of products delivered. The study involved consumers of dairy products from various demographical backgrounds across South India. The questionnaire focussed on quality aspects of dairy products and also the service provided. A customer satisfaction model was developed based on various factors identified, with robust hypotheses that govern the use of the product. The developed model proved to be statistically significant as it passed the required statistical tests for reliability, construct validity and interdependency between the constructs. Some major concerns detected were regarding the fat content, taste and odour of packaged milk. A minor proportion of people (15.64%) were unsatisfied with the quality of service provided, which is another issue to be addressed to eliminate the sense of dissatisfaction in the minds of consumers.

Attachment and parental divorce: a test of the diffusion and sensitive period hypotheses.

Science.gov (United States)

Fraley, R Chris; Heffernan, Marie E

2013-09-01

One of the assumptions of attachment theory is that disruptions in parental relationships are prospectively related to insecure attachment patterns in adulthood. The majority of research that has evaluated this hypothesis, however, has been based on retrospective reports of the quality of relationships with parents-research that is subject to retrospective biases. In the present research, the authors examined the impact of parental divorce-an event that can be assessed relatively objectively-on attachment patterns in adulthood across two samples. The data indicate that parental divorce has selective rather than diffuse implications for insecure attachment. Namely, parental divorce was more strongly related to insecure relationships with parents in adulthood than insecure relationships with romantic partners or friends. In addition, parental insecurity was most pronounced when parental divorce took place in early childhood. This finding is consistent with hypotheses about sensitive periods in attachment development.

Test the Overall Significance of p-values by Using Joint Tail Probability of Ordered p-values as Test Statistic

OpenAIRE

Fang, Yongxiang; Wit, Ernst

2008-01-01

Fisher’s combined probability test is the most commonly used method to test the overall significance of a set independent p-values. However, it is very obviously that Fisher’s statistic is more sensitive to smaller p-values than to larger p-value and a small p-value may overrule the other p-values and decide the test result. This is, in some cases, viewed as a flaw. In order to overcome this flaw and improve the power of the test, the joint tail probability of a set p-values is proposed as a ...

The Relative Importance of Low Significance Level and High Power in Multiple Tests of Significance.

Science.gov (United States)

Westermann, Rainer; Hager, Willi

1983-01-01

Two psychological experiments--Anderson and Shanteau (1970), Berkowitz and LePage (1967)--are reanalyzed to present the problem of the relative importance of low Type 1 error probability and high power when answering a research question by testing several statistical hypotheses. (Author/PN)

Earthquake likelihood model testing

Science.gov (United States)

Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Wiemer, S.; Jackson, D.D.; Rhoades, D.A.

2007-01-01

INTRODUCTIONThe Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) project aims to produce and evaluate alternate models of earthquake potential (probability per unit volume, magnitude, and time) for California. Based on differing assumptions, these models are produced to test the validity of their assumptions and to explore which models should be incorporated in seismic hazard and risk evaluation. Tests based on physical and geological criteria are useful but we focus on statistical methods using future earthquake catalog data only. We envision two evaluations: a test of consistency with observed data and a comparison of all pairs of models for relative consistency. Both tests are based on the likelihood method, and both are fully prospective (i.e., the models are not adjusted to fit the test data). To be tested, each model must assign a probability to any possible event within a specified region of space, time, and magnitude. For our tests the models must use a common format: earthquake rates in specified “bins” with location, magnitude, time, and focal mechanism limits.Seismology cannot yet deterministically predict individual earthquakes; however, it should seek the best possible models for forecasting earthquake occurrence. This paper describes the statistical rules of an experiment to examine and test earthquake forecasts. The primary purposes of the tests described below are to evaluate physical models for earthquakes, assure that source models used in seismic hazard and risk studies are consistent with earthquake data, and provide quantitative measures by which models can be assigned weights in a consensus model or be judged as suitable for particular regions.In this paper we develop a statistical method for testing earthquake likelihood models. A companion paper (Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger 2007, this issue) discusses the actual implementation of these tests in the framework of the RELM initiative.Statistical testing of hypotheses is a common task and a

Statistical auditing and randomness test of lotto k/N-type games

Science.gov (United States)

Coronel-Brizio, H. F.; Hernández-Montoya, A. R.; Rapallo, F.; Scalas, E.

2008-11-01

One of the most popular lottery games worldwide is the so-called “lotto k/N”. It considers N numbers 1,2,…,N from which k are drawn randomly, without replacement. A player selects k or more numbers and the first prize is shared amongst those players whose selected numbers match all of the k randomly drawn. Exact rules may vary in different countries. In this paper, mean values and covariances for the random variables representing the numbers drawn from this kind of game are presented, with the aim of using them to audit statistically the consistency of a given sample of historical results with theoretical values coming from a hypergeometric statistical model. The method can be adapted to test pseudorandom number generators.

IMPLEMENTATION AND VALIDATION OF STATISTICAL TESTS IN RESEARCH'S SOFTWARE HELPING DATA COLLECTION AND PROTOCOLS ANALYSIS IN SURGERY.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuretzki, Carlos Henrique; Campos, Antônio Carlos Ligocki; Malafaia, Osvaldo; Soares, Sandramara Scandelari Kusano de Paula; Tenório, Sérgio Bernardo; Timi, Jorge Rufino Ribas

2016-03-01

The use of information technology is often applied in healthcare. With regard to scientific research, the SINPE(c) - Integrated Electronic Protocols was created as a tool to support researchers, offering clinical data standardization. By the time, SINPE(c) lacked statistical tests obtained by automatic analysis. Add to SINPE(c) features for automatic realization of the main statistical methods used in medicine . The study was divided into four topics: check the interest of users towards the implementation of the tests; search the frequency of their use in health care; carry out the implementation; and validate the results with researchers and their protocols. It was applied in a group of users of this software in their thesis in the strict sensu master and doctorate degrees in one postgraduate program in surgery. To assess the reliability of the statistics was compared the data obtained both automatically by SINPE(c) as manually held by a professional in statistics with experience with this type of study. There was concern for the use of automatic statistical tests, with good acceptance. The chi-square, Mann-Whitney, Fisher and t-Student were considered as tests frequently used by participants in medical studies. These methods have been implemented and thereafter approved as expected. The incorporation of the automatic SINPE (c) Statistical Analysis was shown to be reliable and equal to the manually done, validating its use as a research tool for medical research.

An omnibus likelihood test statistic and its factorization for change detection in time series of polarimetric SAR data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Conradsen, Knut; Skriver, Henning

2016-01-01

Based on an omnibus likelihood ratio test statistic for the equality of several variance-covariance matrices following the complex Wishart distribution with an associated p-value and a factorization of this test statistic, change analysis in a short sequence of multilook, polarimetric SAR data...... in the covariance matrix representation is carried out. The omnibus test statistic and its factorization detect if and when change(s) occur. The technique is demonstrated on airborne EMISAR L-band data but may be applied to Sentinel-1, Cosmo-SkyMed, TerraSAR-X, ALOS and RadarSat-2 or other dual- and quad...

Change detection in a time series of polarimetric SAR data by an omnibus test statistic and its factorization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Conradsen, Knut; Skriver, Henning

2016-01-01

Based on an omnibus likelihood ratio test statistic for the equality of several variance-covariance matrices following the complex Wishart distribution with an associated p-value and a factorization of this test statistic, change analysis in a short sequence of multilook, polarimetric SAR data...... in the covariance matrix representation is carried out. The omnibus test statistic and its factorization detect if and when change(s) occur. The technique is demonstrated on airborne EMISAR L-band data but may be applied to Sentinel-1, Cosmo-SkyMed, TerraSAR-X, ALOS and RadarSat-2 or other dual- and quad...

Alternative glacial-interglacial refugia demographic hypotheses tested on Cephalocereus columna-trajani (Cactaceae) in the intertropical Mexican drylands.

Science.gov (United States)

Cornejo-Romero, Amelia; Vargas-Mendoza, Carlos Fabián; Aguilar-Martínez, Gustavo F; Medina-Sánchez, Javier; Rendón-Aguilar, Beatriz; Valverde, Pedro Luis; Zavala-Hurtado, Jose Alejandro; Serrato, Alejandra; Rivas-Arancibia, Sombra; Pérez-Hernández, Marco Aurelio; López-Ortega, Gerardo; Jiménez-Sierra, Cecilia

2017-01-01

Historic demography changes of plant species adapted to New World arid environments could be consistent with either the Glacial Refugium Hypothesis (GRH), which posits that populations contracted to refuges during the cold-dry glacial and expanded in warm-humid interglacial periods, or with the Interglacial Refugium Hypothesis (IRH), which suggests that populations contracted during interglacials and expanded in glacial times. These contrasting hypotheses are developed in the present study for the giant columnar cactus Cephalocereus columna-trajani in the intertropical Mexican drylands where the effects of Late Quaternary climatic changes on phylogeography of cacti remain largely unknown. In order to determine if the historic demography and phylogeographic structure of the species are consistent with either hypothesis, sequences of the chloroplast regions psbA-trnH and trnT-trnL from 110 individuals from 10 populations comprising the full distribution range of this species were analysed. Standard estimators of genetic diversity and structure were calculated. The historic demography was analysed using a Bayesian approach and the palaeodistribution was derived from ecological niche modelling to determine if, in the arid environments of south-central Mexico, glacial-interglacial cycles drove the genetic divergence and diversification of this species. Results reveal low but statistically significant population differentiation (FST = 0.124, P < 0.001), although very clear geographic clusters are not formed. Genetic diversity, haplotype network and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) demographic analyses suggest a population expansion estimated to have taken place in the Last Interglacial (123.04 kya, 95% CI 115.3-130.03). The species palaeodistribution is consistent with the ABC analyses and indicates that the potential area of palaedistribution and climatic suitability were larger during the Last Interglacial and Holocene than in the Last Glacial Maximum. Overall

Ontological Analysis of Integrated Process Models: testing hypotheses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Rosemann

2001-11-01

Full Text Available Integrated process modeling is achieving prominence in helping to document and manage business administration and IT processes in organizations. The ARIS framework is a popular example for a framework of integrated process modeling not least because it underlies the 800 or more reference models embedded in the world's most popular ERP package, SAP R/3. This paper demonstrates the usefulness of the Bunge-Wand-Weber (BWW representation model for evaluating modeling grammars such as those constituting ARIS. It reports some initial insights gained from pilot testing Green and Rosemann's (2000 evaluative propositions. Even when considering all five views of ARIS, modelers have problems representing business rules, the scope and boundary of systems, and decomposing models. However, even though it is completely ontologically redundant, users still find the function view useful in modeling.

Testing competing hypotheses for chronology and intensity of lesser scaup molt during winter and spring migration

Science.gov (United States)

Anteau, Michael J.; Anteau, Andrea C.E.; Afton, Alan D.

2011-01-01

We examined chronology and intensity of molt and their relationships to nutrient reserves (lipid and protein) of Lesser Scaup (Aythya affinisK/i>) to test predictions of two competing hypotheses. The "staggered cost" hypothesis states that contour-feather molt is nutritionally costly and should not occur during nutritionally costly periods of the annual cycle unless adequate nutrients are available. The "breeding plumage" hypothesis states that prealternate molt must be complete prior to nesting, regardless of nutrient availability. Males and females were completing prebasic molt during winter (Louisiana) and had similar molt intensities. Females underwent prealternate molt during spring migration (Illinois and Minnesota) and prebreeding (Manitoba) periods; 53% and 93% of females were in moderate to heavy molt in Minnesota and Manitoba, respectively, despite experiencing other substantial nutritional costs. Intensity of prealternate molt was not correlated with lipid reserves even though females, on average, were nutritionally stressed. Molt intensity was not negatively correlated with protein reserves at any location. Chronology and intensity of prealternate molt varied little and were not temporally staggered from other nutritionally costly events. Prealternate molt did not influence nutrient reserves, and nutrient reserves likely were not the ultimate factor influencing chronology or intensity of prealternate molt of females. We surmise that nutrients required for prealternate molt come from exogenous sources and that the "staggered cost" hypothesis does not explain chronology of prealternate molt in female Lesser Scaup; rather, it appears that molt must be complete prior to nesting, consistent with the "breeding plumage" hypothesis.

The use of statistical tools in field testing of putative effects of genetically modified plants on nontarget organisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Semenov, Alexander V; Elsas, Jan Dirk; Glandorf, Debora C M; Schilthuizen, Menno; Boer, Willem F

2013-08-01

To fulfill existing guidelines, applicants that aim to place their genetically modified (GM) insect-resistant crop plants on the market are required to provide data from field experiments that address the potential impacts of the GM plants on nontarget organisms (NTO's). Such data may be based on varied experimental designs. The recent EFSA guidance document for environmental risk assessment (2010) does not provide clear and structured suggestions that address the statistics of field trials on effects on NTO's. This review examines existing practices in GM plant field testing such as the way of randomization, replication, and pseudoreplication. Emphasis is placed on the importance of design features used for the field trials in which effects on NTO's are assessed. The importance of statistical power and the positive and negative aspects of various statistical models are discussed. Equivalence and difference testing are compared, and the importance of checking the distribution of experimental data is stressed to decide on the selection of the proper statistical model. While for continuous data (e.g., pH and temperature) classical statistical approaches - for example, analysis of variance (ANOVA) - are appropriate, for discontinuous data (counts) only generalized linear models (GLM) are shown to be efficient. There is no golden rule as to which statistical test is the most appropriate for any experimental situation. In particular, in experiments in which block designs are used and covariates play a role GLMs should be used. Generic advice is offered that will help in both the setting up of field testing and the interpretation and data analysis of the data obtained in this testing. The combination of decision trees and a checklist for field trials, which are provided, will help in the interpretation of the statistical analyses of field trials and to assess whether such analyses were correctly applied. We offer generic advice to risk assessors and applicants that will

Sources of organisational resiliency during the Thailand floods of 2011: a test of the bonding and bridging hypotheses.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrew, Simon; Arlikatti, Sudha; Siebeneck, Laura; Pongponrat, Kannapa; Jaikampan, Kraiwuth

2016-01-01

Based on the Institutional Collective Action framework, this research tests the impact of two competing hypotheses--bonding and bridging--on enhancing organisational resiliency. The bonding hypothesis posits that organisational resiliency can be achieved if an organisation works closely with others, whereas the bridging hypothesis argues that such a structure places considerable stress on an organisation and advocates for an organisation to position itself as a central actor to gain access to novel resources from a diverse set of entities to achieve resiliency. The paper analyses data gathered from semi-structured interviews with 44 public, private, and non-profit organisations serving communities affected by the Great Floods of 2011 in the Thai capital, Bangkok (urban), and in Pathum Thani (suburban) and Ayutthaya (rural) provinces. The findings suggest that: organisational resiliency was associated with the bridging effect; organisations in the rural province were more resilient than those in the suburban and urban centres; and private and non-governmental organisations generally were more resilient than public sector organisations. The findings highlight the importance of fostering multi-sector partnerships to enhance organisational resiliency for disaster response. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

Testing for Statistical Discrimination based on Gender

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lesner, Rune Vammen

. It is shown that the implications of both screening discrimination and stereotyping are consistent with observable wage dynamics. In addition, it is found that the gender wage gap decreases in tenure but increases in job transitions and that the fraction of women in high-ranking positions within a firm does......This paper develops a model which incorporates the two most commonly cited strands of the literature on statistical discrimination, namely screening discrimination and stereotyping. The model is used to provide empirical evidence of statistical discrimination based on gender in the labour market...... not affect the level of statistical discrimination by gender....

Effect of Task Presentation on Students' Performances in Introductory Statistics Courses

Science.gov (United States)

Tomasetto, Carlo; Matteucci, Maria Cristina; Carugati, Felice; Selleri, Patrizia

2009-01-01

Research on academic learning indicates that many students experience major difficulties with introductory statistics and methodology courses. We hypothesized that students' difficulties may depend in part on the fact that statistics tasks are commonly viewed as related to the threatening domain of math. In two field experiments which we carried…

Statistics 101 for Radiologists.

Science.gov (United States)

Anvari, Arash; Halpern, Elkan F; Samir, Anthony E

2015-10-01

Diagnostic tests have wide clinical applications, including screening, diagnosis, measuring treatment effect, and determining prognosis. Interpreting diagnostic test results requires an understanding of key statistical concepts used to evaluate test efficacy. This review explains descriptive statistics and discusses probability, including mutually exclusive and independent events and conditional probability. In the inferential statistics section, a statistical perspective on study design is provided, together with an explanation of how to select appropriate statistical tests. Key concepts in recruiting study samples are discussed, including representativeness and random sampling. Variable types are defined, including predictor, outcome, and covariate variables, and the relationship of these variables to one another. In the hypothesis testing section, we explain how to determine if observed differences between groups are likely to be due to chance. We explain type I and II errors, statistical significance, and study power, followed by an explanation of effect sizes and how confidence intervals can be used to generalize observed effect sizes to the larger population. Statistical tests are explained in four categories: t tests and analysis of variance, proportion analysis tests, nonparametric tests, and regression techniques. We discuss sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, receiver operating characteristic analysis, and likelihood ratios. Measures of reliability and agreement, including κ statistics, intraclass correlation coefficients, and Bland-Altman graphs and analysis, are introduced. © RSNA, 2015.

Computer processing of 14C data; statistical tests and corrections of data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Obelic, B.; Planinic, J.

1977-01-01

The described computer program calculates the age of samples and performs statistical tests and corrections of data. Data are obtained from the proportional counter that measures anticoincident pulses per 20 minute intervals. After every 9th interval the counter measures total number of counts per interval. Input data are punched on cards. The output list contains input data schedule and the following results: mean CPM value, correction of CPM for normal pressure and temperature (NTP), sample age calculation based on 14 C half life of 5570 and 5730 years, age correction for NTP, dendrochronological corrections and the relative radiocarbon concentration. All results are given with one standard deviation. Input data test (Chauvenet's criterion), gas purity test, standard deviation test and test of the data processor are also included in the program. (author)

Testing biological hypotheses with embodied robots: adaptations, accidents, and by-products in the evolution of vertebrates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sonia F Roberts

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Evolutionary robotics allows biologists to test hypotheses about extinct animals. We modeled some of the first vertebrates, jawless fishes, in order to study the evolution of the trait after which vertebrates are named: vertebrae. We tested the hypothesis that vertebrae are an adaptation for enhanced feeding and fleeing performance. We created a population of autonomous embodied robots, Preyro, in which the number of vertebrae, N, were free to evolve. In addition, two other traits, the span of the caudal fin, b, and the predator detection threshold, ζ, a proxy for the lateral line sensory system, were also allowed to evolve. These three traits were chosen because they evolved early in vertebrates, are all potentially important in feeding and fleeing, and vary in form among species. Preyro took on individual identities in a given generation as defined by the population’s six diploid genotypes, Gi. Each Gi was a 3-tuple, with each element an integer specifying N, b, and, ζ. The small size of the population allowed for genetic drift to operate in concert with random mutation and mating; the presence of these mechanisms of chance provided an opportunity for N to evolve by accident. The presence of three evolvable traits provided an opportunity for direct selection on b and/or ζ to evolve N as a by-product linked trait correlation. In selection trials, different Gi embodied in Preyro attempted to feed at a light source and then flee to avoid a predator robot in pursuit. The fitness of each Gi was calculated from five different types of performance: speed, acceleration, distance to the light, distance to the predator, and the number of predator escapes initiated. In each generation, we measured the selection differential, the selection gradient, the strength of chance, and the indirect correlation selection gradient. These metrics allowed us to understand the relative contributions of the three mechanisms: direct selection, chance, and indirect

A Note on Comparing the Power of Test Statistics at Low Significance Levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, Nathan; Elston, Robert

2011-01-01

It is an obvious fact that the power of a test statistic is dependent upon the significance (alpha) level at which the test is performed. It is perhaps a less obvious fact that the relative performance of two statistics in terms of power is also a function of the alpha level. Through numerous personal discussions, we have noted that even some competent statisticians have the mistaken intuition that relative power comparisons at traditional levels such as α = 0.05 will be roughly similar to relative power comparisons at very low levels, such as the level α = 5 × 10 -8 , which is commonly used in genome-wide association studies. In this brief note, we demonstrate that this notion is in fact quite wrong, especially with respect to comparing tests with differing degrees of freedom. In fact, at very low alpha levels the cost of additional degrees of freedom is often comparatively low. Thus we recommend that statisticians exercise caution when interpreting the results of power comparison studies which use alpha levels that will not be used in practice.

Cosmological Non-Gaussian Signature Detection: Comparing Performance of Different Statistical Tests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Forni

2005-09-01

Full Text Available Currently, it appears that the best method for non-Gaussianity detection in the cosmic microwave background (CMB consists in calculating the kurtosis of the wavelet coefficients. We know that wavelet-kurtosis outperforms other methods such as the bispectrum, the genus, ridgelet-kurtosis, and curvelet-kurtosis on an empirical basis, but relatively few studies have compared other transform-based statistics, such as extreme values, or more recent tools such as higher criticism (HC, or proposed “best possible” choices for such statistics. In this paper, we consider two models for transform-domain coefficients: (a a power-law model, which seems suited to the wavelet coefficients of simulated cosmic strings, and (b a sparse mixture model, which seems suitable for the curvelet coefficients of filamentary structure. For model (a, if power-law behavior holds with finite 8th moment, excess kurtosis is an asymptotically optimal detector, but if the 8th moment is not finite, a test based on extreme values is asymptotically optimal. For model (b, if the transform coefficients are very sparse, a recent test, higher criticism, is an optimal detector, but if they are dense, kurtosis is an optimal detector. Empirical wavelet coefficients of simulated cosmic strings have power-law character, infinite 8th moment, while curvelet coefficients of the simulated cosmic strings are not very sparse. In all cases, excess kurtosis seems to be an effective test in moderate-resolution imagery.

Introducing StatHand: A Cross-Platform Mobile Application to Support Students' Statistical Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Peter J; Roberts, Lynne D; Baughman, Frank D; Loxton, Natalie J; Van Rooy, Dirk; Rock, Adam J; Finlay, James

2016-01-01

Although essential to professional competence in psychology, quantitative research methods are a known area of weakness for many undergraduate psychology students. Students find selecting appropriate statistical tests and procedures for different types of research questions, hypotheses and data types particularly challenging, and these skills are not often practiced in class. Decision trees (a type of graphic organizer) are known to facilitate this decision making process, but extant trees have a number of limitations. Furthermore, emerging research suggests that mobile technologies offer many possibilities for facilitating learning. It is within this context that we have developed StatHand, a free cross-platform application designed to support students' statistical decision making. Developed with the support of the Australian Government Office for Learning and Teaching, StatHand guides users through a series of simple, annotated questions to help them identify a statistical test or procedure appropriate to their circumstances. It further offers the guidance necessary to run these tests and procedures, then interpret and report their results. In this Technology Report we will overview the rationale behind StatHand, before describing the feature set of the application. We will then provide guidelines for integrating StatHand into the research methods curriculum, before concluding by outlining our road map for the ongoing development and evaluation of StatHand.

Testing Genetic Pleiotropy with GWAS Summary Statistics for Marginal and Conditional Analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Yangqing; Pan, Wei

2017-12-01

There is growing interest in testing genetic pleiotropy, which is when a single genetic variant influences multiple traits. Several methods have been proposed; however, these methods have some limitations. First, all the proposed methods are based on the use of individual-level genotype and phenotype data; in contrast, for logistical, and other, reasons, summary statistics of univariate SNP-trait associations are typically only available based on meta- or mega-analyzed large genome-wide association study (GWAS) data. Second, existing tests are based on marginal pleiotropy, which cannot distinguish between direct and indirect associations of a single genetic variant with multiple traits due to correlations among the traits. Hence, it is useful to consider conditional analysis, in which a subset of traits is adjusted for another subset of traits. For example, in spite of substantial lowering of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL) with statin therapy, some patients still maintain high residual cardiovascular risk, and, for these patients, it might be helpful to reduce their triglyceride (TG) level. For this purpose, in order to identify new therapeutic targets, it would be useful to identify genetic variants with pleiotropic effects on LDL and TG after adjusting the latter for LDL; otherwise, a pleiotropic effect of a genetic variant detected by a marginal model could simply be due to its association with LDL only, given the well-known correlation between the two types of lipids. Here, we develop a new pleiotropy testing procedure based only on GWAS summary statistics that can be applied for both marginal analysis and conditional analysis. Although the main technical development is based on published union-intersection testing methods, care is needed in specifying conditional models to avoid invalid statistical estimation and inference. In addition to the previously used likelihood ratio test, we also propose using generalized estimating equations under the

Evaluation of the Wishart test statistics for polarimetric SAR data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skriver, Henning; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Conradsen, Knut

2003-01-01

A test statistic for equality of two covariance matrices following the complex Wishart distribution has previously been used in new algorithms for change detection, edge detection and segmentation in polarimetric SAR images. Previously, the results for change detection and edge detection have been...... quantitatively evaluated. This paper deals with the evaluation of segmentation. A segmentation performance measure originally developed for single-channel SAR images has been extended to polarimetric SAR images, and used to evaluate segmentation for a merge-using-moment algorithm for polarimetric SAR data....

Analysis of statistical misconception in terms of statistical reasoning

Science.gov (United States)

Maryati, I.; Priatna, N.

2018-05-01

Reasoning skill is needed for everyone to face globalization era, because every person have to be able to manage and use information from all over the world which can be obtained easily. Statistical reasoning skill is the ability to collect, group, process, interpret, and draw conclusion of information. Developing this skill can be done through various levels of education. However, the skill is low because many people assume that statistics is just the ability to count and using formulas and so do students. Students still have negative attitude toward course which is related to research. The purpose of this research is analyzing students’ misconception in descriptive statistic course toward the statistical reasoning skill. The observation was done by analyzing the misconception test result and statistical reasoning skill test; observing the students’ misconception effect toward statistical reasoning skill. The sample of this research was 32 students of math education department who had taken descriptive statistic course. The mean value of misconception test was 49,7 and standard deviation was 10,6 whereas the mean value of statistical reasoning skill test was 51,8 and standard deviation was 8,5. If the minimal value is 65 to state the standard achievement of a course competence, students’ mean value is lower than the standard competence. The result of students’ misconception study emphasized on which sub discussion that should be considered. Based on the assessment result, it was found that students’ misconception happen on this: 1) writing mathematical sentence and symbol well, 2) understanding basic definitions, 3) determining concept that will be used in solving problem. In statistical reasoning skill, the assessment was done to measure reasoning from: 1) data, 2) representation, 3) statistic format, 4) probability, 5) sample, and 6) association.

Partial discharge testing: a progress report. Statistical evaluation of PD data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Warren, V.; Allan, J.

2005-01-01

It has long been known that comparing the partial discharge results obtained from a single machine is a valuable tool enabling companies to observe the gradual deterioration of a machine stator winding and thus plan appropriate maintenance for the machine. In 1998, at the annual Iris Rotating Machines Conference (IRMC), a paper was presented that compared thousands of PD test results to establish the criteria for comparing results from different machines and the expected PD levels. At subsequent annual Iris conferences, using similar analytical procedures, papers were presented that supported the previous criteria and: in 1999, established sensor location as an additional criterion; in 2000, evaluated the effect of insulation type and age on PD activity; in 2001, evaluated the effect of manufacturer on PD activity; in 2002, evaluated the effect of operating pressure for hydrogen-cooled machines; in 2003, evaluated the effect of insulation type and setting Trac alarms; in 2004, re-evaluated the effect of manufacturer on PD activity. Before going further in database analysis procedures, it would be prudent to statistically evaluate the anecdotal evidence observed to date. The goal was to determine which variables of machine conditions greatly influenced the PD results and which didn't. Therefore, this year's paper looks at the impact of operating voltage, machine type and winding type on the test results for air-cooled machines. Because of resource constraints, only data collected through 2003 was used; however, as before, it is still standardized for frequency bandwidth and pruned to include only full-load-hot (FLH) results collected for one sensor on operating machines. All questionable data, or data from off-line testing or unusual machine conditions was excluded, leaving 6824 results. Calibration of on-line PD test results is impractical; therefore, only results obtained using the same method of data collection and noise separation techniques are compared. For

To test photon statistics by atomic beam deflection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Yuzhu; Chen Yudan; Huang Weigang; Liu Liang

1985-02-01

There exists a simple relation between the photon statistics in resonance fluorescence and the statistics of the momentum transferred to an atom by a plane travelling wave [Cook, R.J., Opt. Commun., 35, 347(1980)]. Using an atomic beam deflection by light pressure, we have observed sub-Poissonian statistics in resonance fluorescence of two-level atoms. (author)

New hypotheses regarding the Danish health puzzle.

Science.gov (United States)

Bakah, May; Raphael, Dennis

2017-12-01

Nordic welfare states have achieved admirable population health profiles as a result of public policies that provide economic and social security across the life course. Denmark has been an exception to this rule, as its life expectancies and infant mortality rates since the mid-1970s have lagged behind the other Nordic nations and, in the case of life expectancy, behind most Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development nations. In this review paper, we identify a number of new hypotheses for why this may be the case. These hypotheses concern the health effects of neo-liberal restructuring of the economy and its institutions, the institution of flexi-security in Denmark's labour market and the influence of Denmark's tobacco and alcohol industries. Also of note is that Denmark experienced higher unemployment rates during its initial period of health stagnation, as well as its treatment of non-Western immigrants and high wealth inequality and, until recently, the fact that Denmark did not systematically address the issue of health inequalities. These hypotheses may serve as covering explanations for the usually provided accounts of elevated behavioural risks and psychosocial stress as being responsible for Denmark's health profile.

Development of modelling algorithm of technological systems by statistical tests

Science.gov (United States)

Shemshura, E. A.; Otrokov, A. V.; Chernyh, V. G.

2018-03-01

The paper tackles the problem of economic assessment of design efficiency regarding various technological systems at the stage of their operation. The modelling algorithm of a technological system was performed using statistical tests and with account of the reliability index allows estimating the level of machinery technical excellence and defining the efficiency of design reliability against its performance. Economic feasibility of its application shall be determined on the basis of service quality of a technological system with further forecasting of volumes and the range of spare parts supply.

FADTTS: functional analysis of diffusion tensor tract statistics.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Hongtu; Kong, Linglong; Li, Runze; Styner, Martin; Gerig, Guido; Lin, Weili; Gilmore, John H

2011-06-01

The aim of this paper is to present a functional analysis of a diffusion tensor tract statistics (FADTTS) pipeline for delineating the association between multiple diffusion properties along major white matter fiber bundles with a set of covariates of interest, such as age, diagnostic status and gender, and the structure of the variability of these white matter tract properties in various diffusion tensor imaging studies. The FADTTS integrates five statistical tools: (i) a multivariate varying coefficient model for allowing the varying coefficient functions in terms of arc length to characterize the varying associations between fiber bundle diffusion properties and a set of covariates, (ii) a weighted least squares estimation of the varying coefficient functions, (iii) a functional principal component analysis to delineate the structure of the variability in fiber bundle diffusion properties, (iv) a global test statistic to test hypotheses of interest, and (v) a simultaneous confidence band to quantify the uncertainty in the estimated coefficient functions. Simulated data are used to evaluate the finite sample performance of FADTTS. We apply FADTTS to investigate the development of white matter diffusivities along the splenium of the corpus callosum tract and the right internal capsule tract in a clinical study of neurodevelopment. FADTTS can be used to facilitate the understanding of normal brain development, the neural bases of neuropsychiatric disorders, and the joint effects of environmental and genetic factors on white matter fiber bundles. The advantages of FADTTS compared with the other existing approaches are that they are capable of modeling the structured inter-subject variability, testing the joint effects, and constructing their simultaneous confidence bands. However, FADTTS is not crucial for estimation and reduces to the functional analysis method for the single measure. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An empirical test of Maslow's theory of need hierarchy using hologeistic comparison by statistical sampling.

Science.gov (United States)

Davis-Sharts, J

1986-10-01

Maslow's hierarchy of basic human needs provides a major theoretical framework in nursing science. The purpose of this study was to empirically test Maslow's need theory, specifically at the levels of physiological and security needs, using a hologeistic comparative method. Thirty cultures taken from the 60 cultural units in the Health Relations Area Files (HRAF) Probability Sample were found to have data available for examining hypotheses about thermoregulatory (physiological) and protective (security) behaviors practiced prior to sleep onset. The findings demonstrate there is initial worldwide empirical evidence to support Maslow's need hierarchy.

Testing competing hypotheses for chronology and intensity of lesser scaup molt during winter and spring migration

Science.gov (United States)

Anteau, M.J.; Anteau, A.C.E.; Afton, A.D.

2011-01-01

We examined chronology and intensity of molt and their relationships to nutrient reserves (lipid and protein) of Lesser Scaup (Aythya affinis) to test predictions of two competing hypotheses. The "staggered cost" hypothesis states that contour-feather molt is nutritionally costly and should not occur during nutritionally costly periods of the annual cycle unless adequate nutrients are available. The "breeding plumage" hypothesis states that prealternate molt must be complete prior to nesting, regardless of nutrient availability. Males and females were completing prebasic molt during winter (Louisiana) and had similar molt intensities. Females underwent prealternate molt during spring migration (Illinois and Minnesota) and prebreeding (Manitoba) periods; 53% and 93% of females were in moderate to heavy molt in Minnesota and Manitoba, respectively, despite experiencing other substantial nutritional costs. Intensity of prealternate molt was not correlated with lipid reserves even though females, on average, were nutritionally stressed. Molt intensity was not negatively correlated with protein reserves at any location. Chronology and intensity of prealternate molt varied little and were not temporally staggered from other nutritionally costly events. Prealternate molt did not influence nutrient reserves, and nutrient reserves likely were not the ultimate factor influencing chronology or intensity of prealternate molt of females. We surmise that nutrients required for prealternate molt come from exogenous sources and that the "staggered cost" hypothesis does not explain chronology of prealternate molt in female Lesser Scaup; rather, it appears that molt must be complete prior to nesting, consistent with the "breeding plumage" hypothesis. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2011.

A statistical method for testing epidemiological results, as applied to the Hanford worker population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brodsky, A.

1979-01-01

Some recent reports of Mancuso, Stewart and Kneale claim findings of radiation-produced cancer in the Hanford worker population. These claims are based on statistical computations that use small differences in accumulated exposures between groups dying of cancer and groups dying of other causes; actual mortality and longevity were not reported. This paper presents a statistical method for evaluation of actual mortality and longevity longitudinally over time, as applied in a primary analysis of the mortality experience of the Hanford worker population. Although available, this method was not utilized in the Mancuso-Stewart-Kneale paper. The author's preliminary longitudinal analysis shows that the gross mortality experience of persons employed at Hanford during 1943-70 interval did not differ significantly from that of certain controls, when both employees and controls were selected from families with two or more offspring and comparison were matched by age, sex, race and year of entry into employment. This result is consistent with findings reported by Sanders (Health Phys. vol.35, 521-538, 1978). The method utilizes an approximate chi-square (1 D.F.) statistic for testing population subgroup comparisons, as well as the cumulation of chi-squares (1 D.F.) for testing the overall result of a particular type of comparison. The method is available for computer testing of the Hanford mortality data, and could also be adapted to morbidity or other population studies. (author)

Proficiency Testing for Determination of Water Content in Toluene of Chemical Reagents by iteration robust statistic technique

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hao; Wang, Qunwei; He, Ming

2018-05-01

In order to investigate and improve the level of detection technology of water content in liquid chemical reagents of domestic laboratories, proficiency testing provider PT0031 (CNAS) has organized proficiency testing program of water content in toluene, 48 laboratories from 18 provinces/cities/municipals took part in the PT. This paper introduces the implementation process of proficiency testing for determination of water content in toluene, including sample preparation, homogeneity and stability test, the results of statistics of iteration robust statistic technique and analysis, summarized and analyzed those of the different test standards which are widely used in the laboratories, put forward the technological suggestions for the improvement of the test quality of water content. Satisfactory results were obtained by 43 laboratories, amounting to 89.6% of the total participating laboratories.

Recent Literature on Whether Statistical Significance Tests Should or Should Not Be Banned.

Science.gov (United States)

Deegear, James

This paper summarizes the literature regarding statistical significant testing with an emphasis on recent literature in various discipline and literature exploring why researchers have demonstrably failed to be influenced by the American Psychological Association publication manual's encouragement to report effect sizes. Also considered are…

The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

In the practice of data analysis, there is a conceptual distinction between hypothesis testing, on the one hand, and estimation with quantified uncertainty on the other. Among frequentists in psychology, a shift of emphasis from hypothesis testing to estimation has been dubbed "the New Statistics" (Cumming 2014). A second conceptual distinction is between frequentist methods and Bayesian methods. Our main goal in this article is to explain how Bayesian methods achieve the goals of the New Statistics better than frequentist methods. The article reviews frequentist and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and to estimation with confidence or credible intervals. The article also describes Bayesian approaches to meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials, and power analysis.

A method of statistical analysis in the field of sports science when assumptions of parametric tests are not violated

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elżbieta Sandurska

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Application of statistical software typically does not require extensive statistical knowledge, allowing to easily perform even complex analyses. Consequently, test selection criteria and important assumptions may be easily overlooked or given insufficient consideration. In such cases, the results may likely lead to wrong conclusions. Aim: To discuss issues related to assumption violations in the case of Student's t-test and one-way ANOVA, two parametric tests frequently used in the field of sports science, and to recommend solutions. Description of the state of knowledge: Student's t-test and ANOVA are parametric tests, and therefore some of the assumptions that need to be satisfied include normal distribution of the data and homogeneity of variances in groups. If the assumptions are violated, the original design of the test is impaired, and the test may then be compromised giving spurious results. A simple method to normalize the data and to stabilize the variance is to use transformations. If such approach fails, a good alternative to consider is a nonparametric test, such as Mann-Whitney, the Kruskal-Wallis or Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Summary: Thorough verification of the parametric tests assumptions allows for correct selection of statistical tools, which is the basis of well-grounded statistical analysis. With a few simple rules, testing patterns in the data characteristic for the study of sports science comes down to a straightforward procedure.

A Note on Unified Statistics Including Fermi-Dirac, Bose-Einstein, and Tsallis Statistics, and Plausible Extension to Anisotropic Effect

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christianto V.

2007-04-01

Full Text Available In the light of some recent hypotheses suggesting plausible unification of thermostatistics where Fermi-Dirac, Bose-Einstein and Tsallis statistics become its special subsets, we consider further plausible extension to include non-integer Hausdorff dimension, which becomes realization of fractal entropy concept. In the subsequent section, we also discuss plausible extension of this unified statistics to include anisotropic effect by using quaternion oscillator, which may be observed in the context of Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation. Further observation is of course recommended in order to refute or verify this proposition.

A more powerful test based on ratio distribution for retention noninferiority hypothesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Ling; Chen, Gang

2013-03-11

Rothmann et al. ( 2003 ) proposed a method for the statistical inference of fraction retention noninferiority (NI) hypothesis. A fraction retention hypothesis is defined as a ratio of the new treatment effect verse the control effect in the context of a time to event endpoint. One of the major concerns using this method in the design of an NI trial is that with a limited sample size, the power of the study is usually very low. This makes an NI trial not applicable particularly when using time to event endpoint. To improve power, Wang et al. ( 2006 ) proposed a ratio test based on asymptotic normality theory. Under a strong assumption (equal variance of the NI test statistic under null and alternative hypotheses), the sample size using Wang's test was much smaller than that using Rothmann's test. However, in practice, the assumption of equal variance is generally questionable for an NI trial design. This assumption is removed in the ratio test proposed in this article, which is derived directly from a Cauchy-like ratio distribution. In addition, using this method, the fundamental assumption used in Rothmann's test, that the observed control effect is always positive, that is, the observed hazard ratio for placebo over the control is greater than 1, is no longer necessary. Without assuming equal variance under null and alternative hypotheses, the sample size required for an NI trial can be significantly reduced if using the proposed ratio test for a fraction retention NI hypothesis.

Examining publication bias—a simulation-based evaluation of statistical tests on publication bias

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas Schneck

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Background Publication bias is a form of scientific misconduct. It threatens the validity of research results and the credibility of science. Although several tests on publication bias exist, no in-depth evaluations are available that examine which test performs best for different research settings. Methods Four tests on publication bias, Egger’s test (FAT, p-uniform, the test of excess significance (TES, as well as the caliper test, were evaluated in a Monte Carlo simulation. Two different types of publication bias and its degree (0%, 50%, 100% were simulated. The type of publication bias was defined either as file-drawer, meaning the repeated analysis of new datasets, or p-hacking, meaning the inclusion of covariates in order to obtain a significant result. In addition, the underlying effect (β = 0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, effect heterogeneity, the number of observations in the simulated primary studies (N = 100, 500, and the number of observations for the publication bias tests (K = 100, 1,000 were varied. Results All tests evaluated were able to identify publication bias both in the file-drawer and p-hacking condition. The false positive rates were, with the exception of the 15%- and 20%-caliper test, unbiased. The FAT had the largest statistical power in the file-drawer conditions, whereas under p-hacking the TES was, except under effect heterogeneity, slightly better. The CTs were, however, inferior to the other tests under effect homogeneity and had a decent statistical power only in conditions with 1,000 primary studies. Discussion The FAT is recommended as a test for publication bias in standard meta-analyses with no or only small effect heterogeneity. If two-sided publication bias is suspected as well as under p-hacking the TES is the first alternative to the FAT. The 5%-caliper test is recommended under conditions of effect heterogeneity and a large number of primary studies, which may be found if publication bias is examined in a

Testing a statistical method of global mean palotemperature estimations in a long climate simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zorita, E.; Gonzalez-Rouco, F. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

2001-07-01

Current statistical methods of reconstructing the climate of the last centuries are based on statistical models linking climate observations (temperature, sea-level-pressure) and proxy-climate data (tree-ring chronologies, ice-cores isotope concentrations, varved sediments, etc.). These models are calibrated in the instrumental period, and the longer time series of proxy data are then used to estimate the past evolution of the climate variables. Using such methods the global mean temperature of the last 600 years has been recently estimated. In this work this method of reconstruction is tested using data from a very long simulation with a climate model. This testing allows to estimate the errors of the estimations as a function of the number of proxy data and the time scale at which the estimations are probably reliable. (orig.)

Pivotal statistics for testing subsets of structural parameters in the IV Regression Model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleibergen, F.R.

2000-01-01

We construct a novel statistic to test hypothezes on subsets of the structural parameters in anInstrumental Variables (IV) regression model. We derive the chi squared limiting distribution of thestatistic and show that it has a degrees of freedom parameter that is equal to the number ofstructural

Singularity hypotheses a scientific and philosophical assessment

CERN Document Server

Moor, James; Søraker, Johnny; Steinhart, Eric

2012-01-01

Singularity Hypotheses: A Scientific and Philosophical Assessment offers authoritative, jargon-free essays and critical commentaries on accelerating technological progress and the notion of technological singularity. It focuses on conjectures about the intelligence explosion, transhumanism, and whole brain emulation. Recent years have seen a plethora of forecasts about the profound, disruptive impact that is likely to result from further progress in these areas. Many commentators however doubt the scientific rigor of these forecasts, rejecting them as speculative and unfounded. We therefore invited prominent computer scientists, physicists, philosophers, biologists, economists and other thinkers to assess the singularity hypotheses. Their contributions go beyond speculation, providing deep insights into the main issues and a balanced picture of the debate.

Heteroscedastic Tests Statistics for One-Way Analysis of Variance: The Trimmed Means and Hall's Transformation Conjunction

Science.gov (United States)

Luh, Wei-Ming; Guo, Jiin-Huarng

2005-01-01

To deal with nonnormal and heterogeneous data for the one-way fixed effect analysis of variance model, the authors adopted a trimmed means method in conjunction with Hall's invertible transformation into a heteroscedastic test statistic (Alexander-Govern test or Welch test). The results of simulation experiments showed that the proposed technique…

From themes to hypotheses: following up with quantitative methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Morgan, David L

2015-06-01

One important category of mixed-methods research designs consists of quantitative studies that follow up on qualitative research. In this case, the themes that serve as the results from the qualitative methods generate hypotheses for testing through the quantitative methods. That process requires operationalization to translate the concepts from the qualitative themes into quantitative variables. This article illustrates these procedures with examples that range from simple operationalization to the evaluation of complex models. It concludes with an argument for not only following up qualitative work with quantitative studies but also the reverse, and doing so by going beyond integrating methods within single projects to include broader mutual attention from qualitative and quantitative researchers who work in the same field. © The Author(s) 2015.

Distinguishing 'Higgs' spin hypotheses using γγ and WW* decays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellis, John; Fok, Ricky; Hwang, Dae Sung; Sanz, Veronica; You, Tevong

2013-01-01

The new particle X recently discovered by the ATLAS and CMS Collaborations in searches for the Higgs boson has been observed to decay into γγ, ZZ * and WW * , but its spin and parity, J P , remain a mystery, with J P = 0 + and 2 + being open possibilities. We use PYTHIA and Delphes to simulate an analysis of the angular distribution of gg → X → γγ decays in a full 2012 data set, including realistic background levels. We show that this angular distribution should provide strong discrimination between the possibilities of spin zero and spin two with graviton-like couplings: ∝3 σ if a conservative symmetric interpretation of the log-likelihood ratio (LLR) test statistic is used, and ∝6 σ if a less conservative asymmetric interpretation is used. The WW and ZZ couplings of the Standard Model Higgs boson and of a 2 + particle with graviton-like couplings are both expected to exhibit custodial symmetry. We simulate the present ATLAS and CMS search strategies for X → WW * using PYTHIA and Delphes, and show that their efficiencies in the case of a spin-2 particle with graviton-like couplings are a factor ≅ 1.9 smaller than in the spin-0 case. On the other hand, the ratio of X 2 + → WW * and ZZ * branching ratios is larger than that in the 0 + case by a factor ≅ 1.3. We find that the current ATLAS and CMS results for X → WW * and X → ZZ * decays are compatible with custodial symmetry under both the spin-0 and -2 hypotheses, and that the data expected to become available during 2012 are unlikely to discriminate significantly between these possibilities. (orig.)

Reliability assessment for safety critical systems by statistical random testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mills, S.E.

1995-11-01

In this report we present an overview of reliability assessment for software and focus on some basic aspects of assessing reliability for safety critical systems by statistical random testing. We also discuss possible deviations from some essential assumptions on which the general methodology is based. These deviations appear quite likely in practical applications. We present and discuss possible remedies and adjustments and then undertake applying this methodology to a portion of the SDS1 software. We also indicate shortcomings of the methodology and possible avenues to address to follow to address these problems. (author). 128 refs., 11 tabs., 31 figs

Reliability assessment for safety critical systems by statistical random testing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mills, S E [Carleton Univ., Ottawa, ON (Canada). Statistical Consulting Centre

1995-11-01

In this report we present an overview of reliability assessment for software and focus on some basic aspects of assessing reliability for safety critical systems by statistical random testing. We also discuss possible deviations from some essential assumptions on which the general methodology is based. These deviations appear quite likely in practical applications. We present and discuss possible remedies and adjustments and then undertake applying this methodology to a portion of the SDS1 software. We also indicate shortcomings of the methodology and possible avenues to address to follow to address these problems. (author). 128 refs., 11 tabs., 31 figs.

Testing for Statistical Discrimination based on Gender

OpenAIRE

Lesner, Rune Vammen

2016-01-01

This paper develops a model which incorporates the two most commonly cited strands of the literature on statistical discrimination, namely screening discrimination and stereotyping. The model is used to provide empirical evidence of statistical discrimination based on gender in the labour market. It is shown that the implications of both screening discrimination and stereotyping are consistent with observable wage dynamics. In addition, it is found that the gender wage gap decreases in tenure...

Statistical methods in epidemiology. VII. An overview of the chi2 test for 2 x 2 contingency table analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rigby, A S

2001-11-10

The odds ratio is an appropriate method of analysis for data in 2 x 2 contingency tables. However, other methods of analysis exist. One such method is based on the chi2 test of goodness-of-fit. Key players in the development of statistical theory include Pearson, Fisher and Yates. Data are presented in the form of 2 x 2 contingency tables and a method of analysis based on the chi2 test is introduced. There are many variations of the basic test statistic, one of which is the chi2 test with Yates' continuity correction. The usefulness (or not) of Yates' continuity correction is discussed. Problems of interpretation when the method is applied to k x m tables are highlighted. Some properties of the chi2 the test are illustrated by taking examples from the author's teaching experiences. Journal editors should be encouraged to give both observed and expected cell frequencies so that better information comes out of the chi2 test statistic.

PROSTATE CANCER SCREENING: PSA TEST AWARENESS AMONG ADULT MALES.

Science.gov (United States)

Obana, Michael; O'Lawrence, Henry

2015-01-01

The overall purpose of this study was to determine whether visits to the doctor in the last 12 months, education level, and annual household income for adult males increased the awareness of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) tests. The effect of these factors for the knowledge of PSA exams was performed using statistical analysis. A retrospective secondary database was utilized for this study using the questionnaire in the California Health Interview Survey from 2009. Based on this survey, annual visits to the doctor, higher educational levels attained, and greater take-home pay were statistically significant and the results of the study were equivalent to those hypothesized. This also reflects the consideration of marketing PSA blood test screenings to those adult males who are poor, uneducated, and do not see the doctor on a consistent basis.

Statistical Inference at Work: Statistical Process Control as an Example

Science.gov (United States)

Bakker, Arthur; Kent, Phillip; Derry, Jan; Noss, Richard; Hoyles, Celia

2008-01-01

To characterise statistical inference in the workplace this paper compares a prototypical type of statistical inference at work, statistical process control (SPC), with a type of statistical inference that is better known in educational settings, hypothesis testing. Although there are some similarities between the reasoning structure involved in…

Spatial analysis statistics, visualization, and computational methods

CERN Document Server

Oyana, Tonny J

2015-01-01

An introductory text for the next generation of geospatial analysts and data scientists, Spatial Analysis: Statistics, Visualization, and Computational Methods focuses on the fundamentals of spatial analysis using traditional, contemporary, and computational methods. Outlining both non-spatial and spatial statistical concepts, the authors present practical applications of geospatial data tools, techniques, and strategies in geographic studies. They offer a problem-based learning (PBL) approach to spatial analysis-containing hands-on problem-sets that can be worked out in MS Excel or ArcGIS-as well as detailed illustrations and numerous case studies. The book enables readers to: Identify types and characterize non-spatial and spatial data Demonstrate their competence to explore, visualize, summarize, analyze, optimize, and clearly present statistical data and results Construct testable hypotheses that require inferential statistical analysis Process spatial data, extract explanatory variables, conduct statisti...

Introducing StatHand: A cross-platform mobile application to support students’ statistical decision making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter James Allen

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Although essential to professional competence in psychology, quantitative research methods are a known area of weakness for many undergraduate psychology students. Students find selecting appropriate statistical tests and procedures for different types of research questions, hypotheses and data types particularly challenging, and these skills are not often practiced in class. Decision trees (a type of graphic organizer are known to facilitate this decision making process, but extant trees have a number of limitations. Furthermore, emerging research suggests that mobile technologies offer many possibilities for facilitating learning. It is within this context that we have developed StatHand, a free cross-platform application designed to support students’ statistical decision making. Developed with the support of the Australian Government Office for Learning and Teaching, StatHand guides users through a series of simple, annotated questions to help them identify a statistical test or procedure appropriate to their circumstances. It further offers the guidance necessary to run these tests and procedures, then interpret and report their results. In this Technology Report we will overview the rationale behind StatHand, before describing the feature set of the application. We will then provide guidelines for integrating StatHand into the research methods curriculum, before concluding by outlining our road map for the ongoing development and evaluation of StatHand.

Learning Psychological Research and Statistical Concepts using Retrieval-based Practice

OpenAIRE

Stephen Wee Hun eLim; Gavin Jun Peng eNg; Gabriel Qi Hao eWong

2015-01-01

Research methods and statistics are an indispensable subject in the undergraduate psychology curriculum, but there are challenges associated with engaging students in it, such as making learning durable. Here we hypothesized that retrieval-based learning promotes long-term retention of statistical knowledge in psychology. Participants either studied the educational material in four consecutive periods, or studied it just once and practiced retrieving the information in the subsequent three pe...

Tests and Confidence Intervals for an Extended Variance Component Using the Modified Likelihood Ratio Statistic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Ole Fredslund; Frydenberg, Morten; Jensen, Jens Ledet

2005-01-01

The large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic is studied for testing a variance component equal to a specified value. Formulas are presented in the general balanced case, whereas in the unbalanced case only the one-way random effects model is studied. Simulation studies are presented......, showing that the normal approximation to the large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic gives confidence intervals for variance components with coverage probabilities very close to the nominal confidence coefficient....

Statistical power analysis a simple and general model for traditional and modern hypothesis tests

CERN Document Server

Murphy, Kevin R; Wolach, Allen

2014-01-01

Noted for its accessible approach, this text applies the latest approaches of power analysis to both null hypothesis and minimum-effect testing using the same basic unified model. Through the use of a few simple procedures and examples, the authors show readers with little expertise in statistical analysis how to obtain the values needed to carry out the power analysis for their research. Illustrations of how these analyses work and how they can be used to choose the appropriate criterion for defining statistically significant outcomes are sprinkled throughout. The book presents a simple and g

Statistical Analysis of Compressive and Flexural Test Results on the Sustainable Adobe Reinforced with Steel Wire Mesh

Science.gov (United States)

Jokhio, Gul A.; Syed Mohsin, Sharifah M.; Gul, Yasmeen

2018-04-01

It has been established that Adobe provides, in addition to being sustainable and economic, a better indoor air quality without spending extensive amounts of energy as opposed to the modern synthetic materials. The material, however, suffers from weak structural behaviour when subjected to adverse loading conditions. A wide range of mechanical properties has been reported in literature owing to lack of research and standardization. The present paper presents the statistical analysis of the results that were obtained through compressive and flexural tests on Adobe samples. Adobe specimens with and without wire mesh reinforcement were tested and the results were reported. The statistical analysis of these results presents an interesting read. It has been found that the compressive strength of adobe increases by about 43% after adding a single layer of wire mesh reinforcement. This increase is statistically significant. The flexural response of Adobe has also shown improvement with the addition of wire mesh reinforcement, however, the statistical significance of the same cannot be established.

Confidence intervals permit, but don't guarantee, better inference than statistical significance testing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melissa Coulson

2010-07-01

Full Text Available A statistically significant result, and a non-significant result may differ little, although significance status may tempt an interpretation of difference. Two studies are reported that compared interpretation of such results presented using null hypothesis significance testing (NHST, or confidence intervals (CIs. Authors of articles published in psychology, behavioural neuroscience, and medical journals were asked, via email, to interpret two fictitious studies that found similar results, one statistically significant, and the other non-significant. Responses from 330 authors varied greatly, but interpretation was generally poor, whether results were presented as CIs or using NHST. However, when interpreting CIs respondents who mentioned NHST were 60% likely to conclude, unjustifiably, the two results conflicted, whereas those who interpreted CIs without reference to NHST were 95% likely to conclude, justifiably, the two results were consistent. Findings were generally similar for all three disciplines. An email survey of academic psychologists confirmed that CIs elicit better interpretations if NHST is not invoked. Improved statistical inference can result from encouragement of meta-analytic thinking and use of CIs but, for full benefit, such highly desirable statistical reform requires also that researchers interpret CIs without recourse to NHST.

Diversity patterns amongst herbivorous dinosaurs and plants during the Cretaceous: implications for hypotheses of dinosaur/angiosperm co-evolution.

Science.gov (United States)

Butler, R J; Barrett, P M; Kenrick, P; Penn, M G

2009-03-01

Palaeobiologists frequently attempt to identify examples of co-evolutionary interactions over extended geological timescales. These hypotheses are often intuitively appealing, as co-evolution is so prevalent in extant ecosystems, and are easy to formulate; however, they are much more difficult to test than their modern analogues. Among the more intriguing deep time co-evolutionary scenarios are those that relate changes in Cretaceous dinosaur faunas to the primary radiation of flowering plants. Demonstration of temporal congruence between the diversifications of co-evolving groups is necessary to establish whether co-evolution could have occurred in such cases, but is insufficient to prove whether it actually did take place. Diversity patterns do, however, provide a means for falsifying such hypotheses. We have compiled a new database of Cretaceous dinosaur and plant distributions from information in the primary literature. This is used as the basis for plotting taxonomic diversity and occurrence curves for herbivorous dinosaurs (Sauropodomorpha, Stegosauria, Ankylosauria, Ornithopoda, Ceratopsia, Pachycephalosauria and herbivorous theropods) and major groups of plants (angiosperms, Bennettitales, cycads, cycadophytes, conifers, Filicales and Ginkgoales) that co-occur in dinosaur-bearing formations. Pairwise statistical comparisons were made between various floral and faunal groups to test for any significant similarities in the shapes of their diversity curves through time. We show that, with one possible exception, diversity patterns for major groups of herbivorous dinosaurs are not positively correlated with angiosperm diversity. In other words, at the level of major clades, there is no support for any diffuse co-evolutionary relationship between herbivorous dinosaurs and flowering plants. The diversification of Late Cretaceous pachycephalosaurs (excluding the problematic taxon Stenopelix) shows a positive correlation, but this might be spuriously related to

Why the null matters: statistical tests, random walks and evolution.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheets, H D; Mitchell, C E

2001-01-01

A number of statistical tests have been developed to determine what type of dynamics underlie observed changes in morphology in evolutionary time series, based on the pattern of change within the time series. The theory of the 'scaled maximum', the 'log-rate-interval' (LRI) method, and the Hurst exponent all operate on the same principle of comparing the maximum change, or rate of change, in the observed dataset to the maximum change expected of a random walk. Less change in a dataset than expected of a random walk has been interpreted as indicating stabilizing selection, while more change implies directional selection. The 'runs test' in contrast, operates on the sequencing of steps, rather than on excursion. Applications of these tests to computer generated, simulated time series of known dynamical form and various levels of additive noise indicate that there is a fundamental asymmetry in the rate of type II errors of the tests based on excursion: they are all highly sensitive to noise in models of directional selection that result in a linear trend within a time series, but are largely noise immune in the case of a simple model of stabilizing selection. Additionally, the LRI method has a lower sensitivity than originally claimed, due to the large range of LRI rates produced by random walks. Examination of the published results of these tests show that they have seldom produced a conclusion that an observed evolutionary time series was due to directional selection, a result which needs closer examination in light of the asymmetric response of these tests.

Assessment of noise in a digital image using the join-count statistic and the Moran test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kehshih Chuang; Huang, H.K.

1992-01-01

It is assumed that data bits of a pixel in digital images can be divided into signal and noise bits. The signal bits occupy the most significant part of the pixel. The signal parts of each pixel are correlated while the noise parts are uncorrelated. Two statistical methods, the Moran test and the join-count statistic, are used to examine the noise parts. Images from computerized tomography, magnetic resonance and computed radiography are used for the evaluation of the noise bits. A residual image is formed by subtracting the original image from its smoothed version. The noise level in the residual image is then identical to that in the original image. Both statistical tests are then performed on the bit planes of the residual image. Results show that most digital images contain only 8-9 bits of correlated information. Both methods are easy to implement and fast to perform. (author)

Bayesian inductive logic : inductive predictions from statistical hypotheses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Romeijn, Johannes Wilhelmus

2005-01-01

Veel onderzoeksresultaten worden met behulp van statistiek verkregen. Vaak worden deze resultaten rechtstreeks overgenomen in de krant. Zelden vraagt de journalist zich eerst af welke uitgangspunten in het onderzoek gehanteerd zijn. De vraag is hoe je op basis van een beperkt aantal waarnemingen

Statistical testing of the full-range leadership theory in nursing.

Science.gov (United States)

Kanste, Outi; Kääriäinen, Maria; Kyngäs, Helvi

2009-12-01

The aim of this study is to test statistically the structure of the full-range leadership theory in nursing. The data were gathered by postal questionnaires from nurses and nurse leaders working in healthcare organizations in Finland. A follow-up study was performed 1 year later. The sample consisted of 601 nurses and nurse leaders, and the follow-up study had 78 respondents. Theory was tested through structural equation modelling, standard regression analysis and two-way anova. Rewarding transformational leadership seems to promote and passive laissez-faire leadership to reduce willingness to exert extra effort, perceptions of leader effectiveness and satisfaction with the leader. Active management-by-exception seems to reduce willingness to exert extra effort and perception of leader effectiveness. Rewarding transformational leadership remained as a strong explanatory factor of all outcome variables measured 1 year later. The data supported the main structure of the full-range leadership theory, lending support to the universal nature of the theory.

Explaining the reductions in US corn ethanol processing costs: Testing competing hypotheses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Xiaoguang; Khanna, Madhu

2012-01-01

The processing costs of US corn ethanol have declined by 45% since 1983 as production volumes have increased seventeen-fold. We investigate the role of various factors that could explain this, including economies of scale, cumulative experience, induced innovation in response to rising input prices, an autonomous technological change, and trade induced competition from imported ethanol. Using data on dry-mill ethanol processing costs over the 1983–2005 period, we find evidence to show that US corn ethanol production exhibited decreasing returns to scale, that learning by doing played an important role in reducing these processing costs with a learning rate of 0.25, and that sugarcane ethanol imports contributed to making the corn ethanol industry more competitive. Other factors such as the rising prices of energy and labor did induce lower processing costs, but the effect is not statistically significant. The inclusion of these competing explanations for the reduction in processing costs of US corn ethanol lead to a significantly higher learning rate than otherwise, and this learning rate is found to be robust across specifications. - Highlights: ► We investigate the role of various factors that could explain the reduction in US corn ethanol processing costs over the period 1983–2005. ► We find that US corn ethanol production exhibited decreasing returns to scale. ► Learning by doing played an important role in reducing these costs with a learning rate of 0.25. ► Sugarcane ethanol imports contributed to making the corn ethanol industry more competitive. ► Rising prices of energy and labor did induce lower processing costs, but the effect is not statistically significant.

Statistical analysis of non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Statistical processing of a particle multidetector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lacombe, J.P.

1985-12-01

Statistic study of Poisson non-homogeneous and spatial processes is the first part of this thesis. A Neyman-Pearson type test is defined concerning the intensity measurement of these processes. Conditions are given for which consistency of the test is assured, and others giving the asymptotic normality of the test statistics. Then some techniques of statistic processing of Poisson fields and their applications to a particle multidetector study are given. Quality tests of the device are proposed togetherwith signal extraction methods [fr

Coopersmith Self-Esteem: Two Different Hypothesized Factor Models--Both Acceptable for the Same Data Structure.

Science.gov (United States)

Hofmann, Rich; Sherman, Larry

Using data from 135 sixth-, seventh-, and eighth-graders between 11 and 15 years old attending a middle school in a suburban Southwest Ohio school district, two hypothesized models of the factor structures for the Coopersmith Self-Esteem Inventory were tested. One model represents the original Coopersmith factor structure, and the other model is…

A practical model-based statistical approach for generating functional test cases: application in the automotive industry

OpenAIRE

Awédikian , Roy; Yannou , Bernard

2012-01-01

International audience; With the growing complexity of industrial software applications, industrials are looking for efficient and practical methods to validate the software. This paper develops a model-based statistical testing approach that automatically generates online and offline test cases for embedded software. It discusses an integrated framework that combines solutions for three major software testing research questions: (i) how to select test inputs; (ii) how to predict the expected...

Reliability Verification of DBE Environment Simulation Test Facility by using Statistics Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Kyung Nam; Kim, Jong Soeg; Jeong, Sun Chul; Kyung Heum

2011-01-01

In the nuclear power plant, all the safety-related equipment including cables under the harsh environment should perform the equipment qualification (EQ) according to the IEEE std 323. There are three types of qualification methods including type testing, operating experience and analysis. In order to environmentally qualify the safety-related equipment using type testing method, not analysis or operation experience method, the representative sample of equipment, including interfaces, should be subjected to a series of tests. Among these tests, Design Basis Events (DBE) environment simulating test is the most important test. DBE simulation test is performed in DBE simulation test chamber according to the postulated DBE conditions including specified high-energy line break (HELB), loss of coolant accident (LOCA), main steam line break (MSLB) and etc, after thermal and radiation aging. Because most DBE conditions have 100% humidity condition, in order to trace temperature and pressure of DBE condition, high temperature steam should be used. During DBE simulation test, if high temperature steam under high pressure inject to the DBE test chamber, the temperature and pressure in test chamber rapidly increase over the target temperature. Therefore, the temperature and pressure in test chamber continue fluctuating during the DBE simulation test to meet target temperature and pressure. We should ensure fairness and accuracy of test result by confirming the performance of DBE environment simulation test facility. In this paper, in order to verify reliability of DBE environment simulation test facility, statistics method is used

Filtering a statistically exactly solvable test model for turbulent tracers from partial observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gershgorin, B.; Majda, A.J.

2011-01-01

A statistically exactly solvable model for passive tracers is introduced as a test model for the authors' Nonlinear Extended Kalman Filter (NEKF) as well as other filtering algorithms. The model involves a Gaussian velocity field and a passive tracer governed by the advection-diffusion equation with an imposed mean gradient. The model has direct relevance to engineering problems such as the spread of pollutants in the air or contaminants in the water as well as climate change problems concerning the transport of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide with strongly intermittent probability distributions consistent with the actual observations of the atmosphere. One of the attractive properties of the model is the existence of the exact statistical solution. In particular, this unique feature of the model provides an opportunity to design and test fast and efficient algorithms for real-time data assimilation based on rigorous mathematical theory for a turbulence model problem with many active spatiotemporal scales. Here, we extensively study the performance of the NEKF which uses the exact first and second order nonlinear statistics without any approximations due to linearization. The role of partial and sparse observations, the frequency of observations and the observation noise strength in recovering the true signal, its spectrum, and fat tail probability distribution are the central issues discussed here. The results of our study provide useful guidelines for filtering realistic turbulent systems with passive tracers through partial observations.

Two hypotheses were tested, namely:

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Referee

anthelmintic thereby indirectly controlling blowfly strike. A.J. Scholtz ... monetary terms and because of the stress associated with flystrike (Waghorn et al., 1999). Gastro- ... Barger, 1988; Waller, 1994) in combination with managerial practices.

Statistical energy as a tool for binning-free, multivariate goodness-of-fit tests, two-sample comparison and unfolding

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aslan, B.; Zech, G.

2005-01-01

We introduce the novel concept of statistical energy as a statistical tool. We define statistical energy of statistical distributions in a similar way as for electric charge distributions. Charges of opposite sign are in a state of minimum energy if they are equally distributed. This property is used to check whether two samples belong to the same parent distribution, to define goodness-of-fit tests and to unfold distributions distorted by measurement. The approach is binning-free and especially powerful in multidimensional applications

Seasonal patterns in reproductive success of temperate-breeding birds: Experimental tests of the date and quality hypotheses.

Science.gov (United States)

Harriman, Vanessa B; Dawson, Russell D; Bortolotti, Lauren E; Clark, Robert G

2017-04-01

For organisms in seasonal environments, individuals that breed earlier in the season regularly attain higher fitness than their late-breeding counterparts. Two primary hypotheses have been proposed to explain these patterns: The quality hypothesis contends that early breeders are of better phenotypic quality or breed on higher quality territories, whereas the date hypothesis predicts that seasonally declining reproductive success is a response to a seasonal deterioration in environmental quality. In birds, food availability is thought to drive deteriorating environmental conditions, but few experimental studies have demonstrated its importance while also controlling for parental quality. We tested predictions of the date hypothesis in tree swallows ( Tachycineta bicolor ) over two breeding seasons and in two locations within their breeding range in Canada. Nests were paired by clutch initiation date to control for parental quality, and we delayed the hatching date of one nest within each pair. Subsequently, brood sizes were manipulated to mimic changes in per capita food abundance, and we examined the effects of manipulations, as well as indices of environmental and parental quality, on nestling quality, fledging success, and return rates. Reduced reproductive success of late-breeding individuals was causally related to a seasonal decline in environmental quality. Declining insect biomass and enlarged brood sizes resulted in nestlings that were lighter, in poorer body condition, structurally smaller, had shorter and slower growing flight feathers and were less likely to survive to fledge. Our results provide evidence for the importance of food resources in mediating seasonal declines in offspring quality and survival.

Compensation or inhibitory failure? Testing hypotheses of age-related right frontal lobe involvement in verbal memory ability using structural and diffusion MRI

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Simon R.; Bastin, Mark E.; Ferguson, Karen J.; Allerhand, Mike; Royle, Natalie A.; Maniega, Susanna Muñoz; Starr, John M.; MacLullich, Alasdair M.J.; Wardlaw, Joanna M.; Deary, Ian J.; MacPherson, Sarah E.

2015-01-01

Functional neuroimaging studies report increased right prefrontal cortex (PFC) involvement during verbal memory tasks amongst low-scoring older individuals, compared to younger controls and their higher-scoring contemporaries. Some propose that this reflects inefficient use of neural resources through failure of the left PFC to inhibit non-task-related right PFC activity, via the anterior corpus callosum (CC). For others, it indicates partial compensation – that is, the right PFC cannot completely supplement the failing neural network, but contributes positively to performance. We propose that combining structural and diffusion brain MRI can be used to test predictions from these theories which have arisen from fMRI studies. We test these hypotheses in immediate and delayed verbal memory ability amongst 90 healthy older adults of mean age 73 years. Right hippocampus and left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) volumes, and fractional anisotropy (FA) in the splenium made unique contributions to verbal memory ability in the whole group. There was no significant effect of anterior callosal white matter integrity on performance. Rather, segmented linear regression indicated that right DLPFC volume was a significantly stronger positive predictor of verbal memory for lower-scorers than higher-scorers, supporting a compensatory explanation for the differential involvement of the right frontal lobe in verbal memory tasks in older age. PMID:25241394

Empirical Statistical Power for Testing Multilocus Genotypic Effects under Unbalanced Designs Using a Gibbs Sampler

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chaeyoung Lee

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Epistasis that may explain a large portion of the phenotypic variation for complex economic traits of animals has been ignored in many genetic association studies. A Baysian method was introduced to draw inferences about multilocus genotypic effects based on their marginal posterior distributions by a Gibbs sampler. A simulation study was conducted to provide statistical powers under various unbalanced designs by using this method. Data were simulated by combined designs of number of loci, within genotype variance, and sample size in unbalanced designs with or without null combined genotype cells. Mean empirical statistical power was estimated for testing posterior mean estimate of combined genotype effect. A practical example for obtaining empirical statistical power estimates with a given sample size was provided under unbalanced designs. The empirical statistical powers would be useful for determining an optimal design when interactive associations of multiple loci with complex phenotypes were examined.

The extended statistical analysis of toxicity tests using standardised effect sizes (SESs): a comparison of nine published papers.

Science.gov (United States)

Festing, Michael F W

2014-01-01

The safety of chemicals, drugs, novel foods and genetically modified crops is often tested using repeat-dose sub-acute toxicity tests in rats or mice. It is important to avoid misinterpretations of the results as these tests are used to help determine safe exposure levels in humans. Treated and control groups are compared for a range of haematological, biochemical and other biomarkers which may indicate tissue damage or other adverse effects. However, the statistical analysis and presentation of such data poses problems due to the large number of statistical tests which are involved. Often, it is not clear whether a "statistically significant" effect is real or a false positive (type I error) due to sampling variation. The author's conclusions appear to be reached somewhat subjectively by the pattern of statistical significances, discounting those which they judge to be type I errors and ignoring any biomarker where the p-value is greater than p = 0.05. However, by using standardised effect sizes (SESs) a range of graphical methods and an over-all assessment of the mean absolute response can be made. The approach is an extension, not a replacement of existing methods. It is intended to assist toxicologists and regulators in the interpretation of the results. Here, the SES analysis has been applied to data from nine published sub-acute toxicity tests in order to compare the findings with those of the author's. Line plots, box plots and bar plots show the pattern of response. Dose-response relationships are easily seen. A "bootstrap" test compares the mean absolute differences across dose groups. In four out of seven papers where the no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL) was estimated by the authors, it was set too high according to the bootstrap test, suggesting that possible toxicity is under-estimated.

The extended statistical analysis of toxicity tests using standardised effect sizes (SESs: a comparison of nine published papers.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael F W Festing

Full Text Available The safety of chemicals, drugs, novel foods and genetically modified crops is often tested using repeat-dose sub-acute toxicity tests in rats or mice. It is important to avoid misinterpretations of the results as these tests are used to help determine safe exposure levels in humans. Treated and control groups are compared for a range of haematological, biochemical and other biomarkers which may indicate tissue damage or other adverse effects. However, the statistical analysis and presentation of such data poses problems due to the large number of statistical tests which are involved. Often, it is not clear whether a "statistically significant" effect is real or a false positive (type I error due to sampling variation. The author's conclusions appear to be reached somewhat subjectively by the pattern of statistical significances, discounting those which they judge to be type I errors and ignoring any biomarker where the p-value is greater than p = 0.05. However, by using standardised effect sizes (SESs a range of graphical methods and an over-all assessment of the mean absolute response can be made. The approach is an extension, not a replacement of existing methods. It is intended to assist toxicologists and regulators in the interpretation of the results. Here, the SES analysis has been applied to data from nine published sub-acute toxicity tests in order to compare the findings with those of the author's. Line plots, box plots and bar plots show the pattern of response. Dose-response relationships are easily seen. A "bootstrap" test compares the mean absolute differences across dose groups. In four out of seven papers where the no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL was estimated by the authors, it was set too high according to the bootstrap test, suggesting that possible toxicity is under-estimated.

A Critique of One-Tailed Hypothesis Test Procedures in Business and Economics Statistics Textbooks.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Tung; Stone, Courtenay C.

1999-01-01

Surveys introductory business and economics statistics textbooks and finds that they differ over the best way to explain one-tailed hypothesis tests: the simple null-hypothesis approach or the composite null-hypothesis approach. Argues that the composite null-hypothesis approach contains methodological shortcomings that make it more difficult for…

Comparison of hypertabastic survival model with other unimodal hazard rate functions using a goodness-of-fit test.

Science.gov (United States)

Tahir, M Ramzan; Tran, Quang X; Nikulin, Mikhail S

2017-05-30

We studied the problem of testing a hypothesized distribution in survival regression models when the data is right censored and survival times are influenced by covariates. A modified chi-squared type test, known as Nikulin-Rao-Robson statistic, is applied for the comparison of accelerated failure time models. This statistic is used to test the goodness-of-fit for hypertabastic survival model and four other unimodal hazard rate functions. The results of simulation study showed that the hypertabastic distribution can be used as an alternative to log-logistic and log-normal distribution. In statistical modeling, because of its flexible shape of hazard functions, this distribution can also be used as a competitor of Birnbaum-Saunders and inverse Gaussian distributions. The results for the real data application are shown. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Statistical Analysis of the Polarimetric Cloud Analysis and Seeding Test (POLCAST) Field Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Ekness, Jamie Lynn

The North Dakota farming industry brings in more than $4.1 billion annually in cash receipts. Unfortunately, agriculture sales vary significantly from year to year, which is due in large part to weather events such as hail storms and droughts. One method to mitigate drought is to use hygroscopic seeding to increase the precipitation efficiency of clouds. The North Dakota Atmospheric Research Board (NDARB) sponsored the Polarimetric Cloud Analysis and Seeding Test (POLCAST) research project to determine the effectiveness of hygroscopic seeding in North Dakota. The POLCAST field projects obtained airborne and radar observations, while conducting randomized cloud seeding. The Thunderstorm Identification Tracking and Nowcasting (TITAN) program is used to analyze radar data (33 usable cases) in determining differences in the duration of the storm, rain rate and total rain amount between seeded and non-seeded clouds. The single ratio of seeded to non-seeded cases is 1.56 (0.28 mm/0.18 mm) or 56% increase for the average hourly rainfall during the first 60 minutes after target selection. A seeding effect is indicated with the lifetime of the storms increasing by 41 % between seeded and non-seeded clouds for the first 60 minutes past seeding decision. A double ratio statistic, a comparison of radar derived rain amount of the last 40 minutes of a case (seed/non-seed), compared to the first 20 minutes (seed/non-seed), is used to account for the natural variability of the cloud system and gives a double ratio of 1.85. The Mann-Whitney test on the double ratio of seeded to non-seeded cases (33 cases) gives a significance (p-value) of 0.063. Bootstrapping analysis of the POLCAST set indicates that 50 cases would provide statistically significant results based on the Mann-Whitney test of the double ratio. All the statistical analysis conducted on the POLCAST data set show that hygroscopic seeding in North Dakota does increase precipitation. While an additional POLCAST field

Limits on hypothesizing new quantum numbers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldstein, G.R.; Moravcsik, M.J.

1986-01-01

According to a recent theorem, for a general quantum-mechanical system undergoing a process, one can tell from measurements on this system whether or not it is characterized by a quantum number, the existence of which is unknown to the observer, even though the detecting equipment used by the observer is unable to distinguish among the various possible values of the ''secret'' quantum number and hence always averages over them. The present paper deals with situations in which this averaging is avoided and hence the ''secret'' quantum number remains ''secret.'' This occurs when a new quantum number is hypothesized in such a way that all the past measurements pertain to the system with one and the same value of the ''secret'' quantum number, or when the new quantum number is related to the old ones by a specific dynamical model providing a one-to-one correspondence. In the first of these cases, however, the one and the same state of the ''secret'' quantum number needs to be a nondegenerate one. If it is degenerate, the theorem can again be applied. This last feature provides a tool for experimentally testing symmetry breaking and the reestablishment of symmetries in asymptotic regions. The situation is illustrated on historical examples like isospin and strangeness, as well as on some contemporary schemes involving spaces of higher dimensionality

A critical discussion of null hypothesis significance testing and statistical power analysis within psychological research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jones, Allan; Sommerlund, Bo

2007-01-01

The uses of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) and statistical power analysis within psychological research are critically discussed. The article looks at the problems of relying solely on NHST when dealing with small and large sample sizes. The use of power-analysis in estimating...... the potential error introduced by small and large samples is advocated. Power analysis is not recommended as a replacement to NHST but as an additional source of information about the phenomena under investigation. Moreover, the importance of conceptual analysis in relation to statistical analysis of hypothesis...

Using Cochran's Z Statistic to Test the Kernel-Smoothed Item Response Function Differences between Focal and Reference Groups

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Zheng, Yinggan; Gierl, Mark J.; Cui, Ying

2010-01-01

This study combined the kernel smoothing procedure and a nonparametric differential item functioning statistic--Cochran's Z--to statistically test the difference between the kernel-smoothed item response functions for reference and focal groups. Simulation studies were conducted to investigate the Type I error and power of the proposed…

R for statistics

CERN Document Server

Cornillon, Pierre-Andre; Husson, Francois; Jegou, Nicolas; Josse, Julie; Kloareg, Maela; Matzner-Lober, Eric; Rouviere, Laurent

2012-01-01

An Overview of RMain ConceptsInstalling RWork SessionHelpR ObjectsFunctionsPackagesExercisesPreparing DataReading Data from FileExporting ResultsManipulating VariablesManipulating IndividualsConcatenating Data TablesCross-TabulationExercisesR GraphicsConventional Graphical FunctionsGraphical Functions with latticeExercisesMaking Programs with RControl FlowsPredefined FunctionsCreating a FunctionExercisesStatistical MethodsIntroduction to the Statistical MethodsA Quick Start with RInstalling ROpening and Closing RThe Command PromptAttribution, Objects, and FunctionSelectionOther Rcmdr PackageImporting (or Inputting) DataGraphsStatistical AnalysisHypothesis TestConfidence Intervals for a MeanChi-Square Test of IndependenceComparison of Two MeansTesting Conformity of a ProportionComparing Several ProportionsThe Power of a TestRegressionSimple Linear RegressionMultiple Linear RegressionPartial Least Squares (PLS) RegressionAnalysis of Variance and CovarianceOne-Way Analysis of VarianceMulti-Way Analysis of Varian...

Using eye tracking to test for individual differences in attention to attractive faces.

Science.gov (United States)

Valuch, Christian; Pflüger, Lena S; Wallner, Bernard; Laeng, Bruno; Ansorge, Ulrich

2015-01-01

We assessed individual differences in visual attention toward faces in relation to their attractiveness via saccadic reaction times. Motivated by the aim to understand individual differences in attention to faces, we tested three hypotheses: (a) Attractive faces hold or capture attention more effectively than less attractive faces; (b) men show a stronger bias toward attractive opposite-sex faces than women; and (c) blue-eyed men show a stronger bias toward blue-eyed than brown-eyed feminine faces. The latter test was included because prior research suggested a high effect size. Our data supported hypotheses (a) and (b) but not (c). By conducting separate tests for disengagement of attention and attention capture, we found that individual differences exist at distinct stages of attentional processing but these differences are of varying robustness and importance. In our conclusion, we also advocate the use of linear mixed effects models as the most appropriate statistical approach for studying inter-individual differences in visual attention with naturalistic stimuli.

Using eye tracking to test for individual differences in attention to attractive faces

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian eValuch

2015-02-01

Full Text Available We assessed individual differences in visual attention toward faces in relation to their attractiveness via saccadic reaction times (SRTs. Motivated by the aim to understand individual differences in attention to faces, we tested three hypotheses: (a Attractive faces hold or capture attention more effectively than less attractive faces; (b men show a stronger bias toward attractive opposite-sex faces than women; and (c blue-eyed men show a stronger bias toward blue-eyed than brown-eyed feminine faces. The latter test was included because prior research suggested a high effect size. Our data supported hypotheses (a and (b but not (c. By conducting separate tests for disengagement of attention and attention capture, we found that individual differences exist at distinct stages of attentional processing but these differences are of varying robustness and importance. In our conclusion, we also advocate the use of linear mixed effects models as the most appropriate statistical approach toward studying inter-individual differences in visual attention with naturalistic stimuli.

The statistics of Pearce element diagrams and the Chayes closure problem

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholls, J.

1988-05-01

Pearce element ratios are defined as having a constituent in their denominator that is conserved in a system undergoing change. The presence of a conserved element in the denominator simplifies the statistics of such ratios and renders them subject to statistical tests, especially tests of significance of the correlation coefficient between Pearce element ratios. Pearce element ratio diagrams provide unambigous tests of petrologic hypotheses because they are based on the stoichiometry of rock-forming minerals. There are three ways to recognize a conserved element: 1. The petrologic behavior of the element can be used to select conserved ones. They are usually the incompatible elements. 2. The ratio of two conserved elements will be constant in a comagmatic suite. 3. An element ratio diagram that is not constructed with a conserved element in the denominator will have a trend with a near zero intercept. The last two criteria can be tested statistically. The significance of the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient can be tested by estimating the probability of obtaining the observed values from a random population of arrays. This population of arrays must satisfy two criteria: 1. The population must contain at least one array that has the means and variances of the array of analytical data for the rock suite. 2. Arrays with the means and variances of the data must not be so abundant in the population that nearly every array selected at random has the properties of the data. The population of random closed arrays can be obtained from a population of open arrays whose elements are randomly selected from probability distributions. The means and variances of these probability distributions are themselves selected from probability distributions which have means and variances equal to a hypothetical open array that would give the means and variances of the data on closure. This hypothetical open array is called the Chayes array. Alternatively, the population of

Statistical inference based on divergence measures

CERN Document Server

Pardo, Leandro

2005-01-01

The idea of using functionals of Information Theory, such as entropies or divergences, in statistical inference is not new. However, in spite of the fact that divergence statistics have become a very good alternative to the classical likelihood ratio test and the Pearson-type statistic in discrete models, many statisticians remain unaware of this powerful approach.Statistical Inference Based on Divergence Measures explores classical problems of statistical inference, such as estimation and hypothesis testing, on the basis of measures of entropy and divergence. The first two chapters form an overview, from a statistical perspective, of the most important measures of entropy and divergence and study their properties. The author then examines the statistical analysis of discrete multivariate data with emphasis is on problems in contingency tables and loglinear models using phi-divergence test statistics as well as minimum phi-divergence estimators. The final chapter looks at testing in general populations, prese...

Mismatch between aspects of hearing impairment and hearing disability/handicap in adult/elderly Cantonese speakers: some hypotheses concerning cultural and linguistic influences.

Science.gov (United States)

Doyle, J; Wong, L L

1996-12-01

This paper addresses the observation that some Cantonese-speaking adults do not perceive a hearing problem even when hearing screening identifies hearing loss. A sample of 49 Cantonese speakers was surveyed about their self-perceptions of hearing prior to a 25 dB HTL pure-tone screening test. All 49 persons failed the screening test, yet 34 (69.4%) reported that they had no problems hearing during conversations. Persons who admitted hearing difficulties tended to have mean hearing levels in excess of 45 dB HTL. A number of hypotheses concerning cultural and linguistic influences are proposed as explanations for the apparent lack of significance of auditory sensitivity loss for some Cantonese speakers. Ways in which these hypotheses might be tested are suggested.

What drove reversions to quadrupedality in ornithischian dinosaurs? Testing hypotheses using centre of mass modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Maidment, Susannah C R; Henderson, Donald M; Barrett, Paul M

2014-11-01

The exceptionally rare transition to quadrupedalism from bipedal ancestors occurred on three independent occasions in ornithischian dinosaurs. The possible driving forces behind these transitions remain elusive, but several hypotheses-including the development of dermal armour and the expansion of head size and cranial ornamentation-have been proposed to account for this major shift in stance. We modelled the position of the centre of mass (CoM) in several exemplar ornithischian taxa and demonstrate that the anterior shifts in CoM position associated with the development of an enlarged skull ornamented with horns and frills for display/defence may have been one of the drivers promoting ceratopsian quadrupedality. A posterior shift in CoM position coincident with the development of extensive dermal armour in thyreophorans demonstrates this cannot have been a primary causative mechanism for quadrupedality in this clade. Quadrupedalism developed in response to different selective pressures in each ornithischian lineage, indicating different evolutionary pathways to convergent quadrupedal morphology.

Kolmogorov similarity hypotheses for scalar fields: sampling intermittent turbulent mixing in the ocean and galaxy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gibson, C.H.

1991-01-01

Kolmogorov's three universal similarity hypotheses are extrapolated to describe scalar fields like temperature mixed by turbulence. The analogous first and second hypotheses for scalars include the effects of Prandtl number and rate-of-strain mixing. Application of velocity and scalar similarity hypotheses to the ocean must take into account the damping of active turbulence by density stratification and the Earth's rotation to form fossil turbulence. By the analogous Kolmogorov third hypothesis for scalars, temperature dissipation rates χ averaged over lengths r > L K should be lognormally distributed with intermittency factors σ 2 that increase with increasing turbulence energy length scales L O as σ ln r 2 approx = μ θ ln(L O /r). Tests of kolmogorovian velocity and scalar universal similarity hypotheses for very large ranges of turbulence length and timescales are provided by data from the ocean and the galactic interstellar medium. These ranges are from 1 to 9 decades in the ocean, and over 12 decades in the interstellar medium. The universal constant for turbulent mixing intermittency μ θ is estimated from oceanic data to be 0.44±0.01, which is remarkably close to estimates for Kolmorgorov's turbulence intermittency constant μ of 0.45±0.05 from galactic as well as atmospheric data. Extreme intermittency complicates the oceanic sampling problem, and may lead to quantitative and qualitative undersampling errors in estimates of mean oceanic dissipation rates and fluxes. Intermittency of turbulence and mixing in the interstellar medium may be a factor in the formation of stars. (author)

Statistical methods for conducting agreement (comparison of clinical tests) and precision (repeatability or reproducibility) studies in optometry and ophthalmology.

Science.gov (United States)

McAlinden, Colm; Khadka, Jyoti; Pesudovs, Konrad

2011-07-01

The ever-expanding choice of ocular metrology and imaging equipment has driven research into the validity of their measurements. Consequently, studies of the agreement between two instruments or clinical tests have proliferated in the ophthalmic literature. It is important that researchers apply the appropriate statistical tests in agreement studies. Correlation coefficients are hazardous and should be avoided. The 'limits of agreement' method originally proposed by Altman and Bland in 1983 is the statistical procedure of choice. Its step-by-step use and practical considerations in relation to optometry and ophthalmology are detailed in addition to sample size considerations and statistical approaches to precision (repeatability or reproducibility) estimates. Ophthalmic & Physiological Optics © 2011 The College of Optometrists.

Intelligent Condition Diagnosis Method Based on Adaptive Statistic Test Filter and Diagnostic Bayesian Network.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ke; Zhang, Qiuju; Wang, Kun; Chen, Peng; Wang, Huaqing

2016-01-08

A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF) and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN) is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal) and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO). To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs) for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Intelligent Condition Diagnosis Method Based on Adaptive Statistic Test Filter and Diagnostic Bayesian Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ke Li

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO. To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Intelligent Condition Diagnosis Method Based on Adaptive Statistic Test Filter and Diagnostic Bayesian Network

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ke; Zhang, Qiuju; Wang, Kun; Chen, Peng; Wang, Huaqing

2016-01-01

A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF) and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN) is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal) and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO). To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs) for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method. PMID:26761006

Compensation or inhibitory failure? Testing hypotheses of age-related right frontal lobe involvement in verbal memory ability using structural and diffusion MRI.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Simon R; Bastin, Mark E; Ferguson, Karen J; Allerhand, Mike; Royle, Natalie A; Maniega, Susanna Muñoz; Starr, John M; MacLullich, Alasdair M J; Wardlaw, Joanna M; Deary, Ian J; MacPherson, Sarah E

2015-02-01

Functional neuroimaging studies report increased right prefrontal cortex (PFC) involvement during verbal memory tasks amongst low-scoring older individuals, compared to younger controls and their higher-scoring contemporaries. Some propose that this reflects inefficient use of neural resources through failure of the left PFC to inhibit non-task-related right PFC activity, via the anterior corpus callosum (CC). For others, it indicates partial compensation - that is, the right PFC cannot completely supplement the failing neural network, but contributes positively to performance. We propose that combining structural and diffusion brain MRI can be used to test predictions from these theories which have arisen from fMRI studies. We test these hypotheses in immediate and delayed verbal memory ability amongst 90 healthy older adults of mean age 73 years. Right hippocampus and left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) volumes, and fractional anisotropy (FA) in the splenium made unique contributions to verbal memory ability in the whole group. There was no significant effect of anterior callosal white matter integrity on performance. Rather, segmented linear regression indicated that right DLPFC volume was a significantly stronger positive predictor of verbal memory for lower-scorers than higher-scorers, supporting a compensatory explanation for the differential involvement of the right frontal lobe in verbal memory tasks in older age. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistics For Dummies

CERN Document Server

Rumsey, Deborah

2011-01-01

The fun and easy way to get down to business with statistics Stymied by statistics? No fear ? this friendly guide offers clear, practical explanations of statistical ideas, techniques, formulas, and calculations, with lots of examples that show you how these concepts apply to your everyday life. Statistics For Dummies shows you how to interpret and critique graphs and charts, determine the odds with probability, guesstimate with confidence using confidence intervals, set up and carry out a hypothesis test, compute statistical formulas, and more.Tracks to a typical first semester statistics cou

Nuclear multifragmentation, its relation to general physics. A rich test ground of the fundamentals of statistical mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gross, D.H.E.

2006-01-01

Heat can flow from cold to hot at any phase separation even in macroscopic systems. Therefore also Lynden-Bell's famous gravo-thermal catastrophe must be reconsidered. In contrast to traditional canonical Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics this is correctly described only by microcanonical statistics. Systems studied in chemical thermodynamics (ChTh) by using canonical statistics consist of several homogeneous macroscopic phases. Evidently, macroscopic statistics as in chemistry cannot and should not be applied to non-extensive or inhomogeneous systems like nuclei or galaxies. Nuclei are small and inhomogeneous. Multifragmented nuclei are even more inhomogeneous and the fragments even smaller. Phase transitions of first order and especially phase separations therefore cannot be described by a (homogeneous) canonical ensemble. Taking this serious, fascinating perspectives open for statistical nuclear fragmentation as test ground for the basic principles of statistical mechanics, especially of phase transitions, without the use of the thermodynamic limit. Moreover, there is also a lot of similarity between the accessible phase space of fragmenting nuclei and inhomogeneous multistellar systems. This underlines the fundamental significance for statistical physics in general. (orig.)

Statistical learning and probabilistic prediction in music cognition: mechanisms of stylistic enculturation.

Science.gov (United States)

Pearce, Marcus T

2018-05-11

Music perception depends on internal psychological models derived through exposure to a musical culture. It is hypothesized that this musical enculturation depends on two cognitive processes: (1) statistical learning, in which listeners acquire internal cognitive models of statistical regularities present in the music to which they are exposed; and (2) probabilistic prediction based on these learned models that enables listeners to organize and process their mental representations of music. To corroborate these hypotheses, I review research that uses a computational model of probabilistic prediction based on statistical learning (the information dynamics of music (IDyOM) model) to simulate data from empirical studies of human listeners. The results show that a broad range of psychological processes involved in music perception-expectation, emotion, memory, similarity, segmentation, and meter-can be understood in terms of a single, underlying process of probabilistic prediction using learned statistical models. Furthermore, IDyOM simulations of listeners from different musical cultures demonstrate that statistical learning can plausibly predict causal effects of differential cultural exposure to musical styles, providing a quantitative model of cultural distance. Understanding the neural basis of musical enculturation will benefit from close coordination between empirical neuroimaging and computational modeling of underlying mechanisms, as outlined here. © 2018 The Authors. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of New York Academy of Sciences.

Evaluating hypotheses in geolocation on a very large sample of Twitter

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Salehi, Bahar; Søgaard, Anders

2017-01-01

Recent work in geolocation has madeseveral hypotheses about what linguisticmarkers are relevant to detect where peoplewrite from. In this paper, we examinesix hypotheses against a corpus consistingof all geo-tagged tweets from theUS, or whose geo-tags could be inferred,in a 19% sample of Twitter...

Explanatory hypotheses formation and the anomalous β spectrum

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gauderis, Tjerk [Centre for Logic and Philosophy of Science, Ghent University (Belgium)

2013-07-01

Between 1928 and 1934, a persevering anomaly mystified the physics community: while alpha decay behaved perfectly according to the new quantum mechanics, the energy of electrons emitted in beta decay displayed a broad continuous spectrum. This puzzle invoked a lively debate among the most established physicists at the time. But the curious thing was that they all suggested hypotheses of very different formal types: Rutherford and Chadwick thought of varying internal energies, Bohr suggested to restrict the energy conservation principle, Heisenberg tinkered with a new quantization of space, and Pauli suggested the existence of a new elementary particle - all these hypotheses being radical and highly controversial. In physics, an anomalous experimental result can trigger the formation of formally very different hypotheses. A scientist confronted with such a result has no strict guidelines to help her decide whether she should explain this result by withdrawing or adapting a constraint (e.g. a law) of the current theory, or by presupposing the existence of a hitherto unobserved entity (e.g. a particle) that makes the anomaly fit within that theory. In this talk I aim to gain some insights how scientists make this choice, by examining in the above case study how the choice of the various mentioned physicists depended on their previous experiences and their specific perception of the problem.

Selection of hidden layer nodes in neural networks by statistical tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciftcioglu, Ozer

1992-05-01

A statistical methodology for selection of the number of hidden layer nodes in feedforward neural networks is described. The method considers the network as an empirical model for the experimental data set subject to pattern classification so that the selection process becomes a model estimation through parameter identification. The solution is performed for an overdetermined estimation problem for identification using nonlinear least squares minimization technique. The number of the hidden layer nodes is determined as result of hypothesis testing. Accordingly the redundant network structure with respect to the number of parameters is avoided and the classification error being kept to a minimum. (author). 11 refs.; 4 figs.; 1 tab

Evaluation of PDA Technical Report No 33. Statistical Testing Recommendations for a Rapid Microbiological Method Case Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Murphy, Thomas; Schwedock, Julie; Nguyen, Kham; Mills, Anna; Jones, David

2015-01-01

New recommendations for the validation of rapid microbiological methods have been included in the revised Technical Report 33 release from the PDA. The changes include a more comprehensive review of the statistical methods to be used to analyze data obtained during validation. This case study applies those statistical methods to accuracy, precision, ruggedness, and equivalence data obtained using a rapid microbiological methods system being evaluated for water bioburden testing. Results presented demonstrate that the statistical methods described in the PDA Technical Report 33 chapter can all be successfully applied to the rapid microbiological method data sets and gave the same interpretation for equivalence to the standard method. The rapid microbiological method was in general able to pass the requirements of PDA Technical Report 33, though the study shows that there can be occasional outlying results and that caution should be used when applying statistical methods to low average colony-forming unit values. Prior to use in a quality-controlled environment, any new method or technology has to be shown to work as designed by the manufacturer for the purpose required. For new rapid microbiological methods that detect and enumerate contaminating microorganisms, additional recommendations have been provided in the revised PDA Technical Report No. 33. The changes include a more comprehensive review of the statistical methods to be used to analyze data obtained during validation. This paper applies those statistical methods to analyze accuracy, precision, ruggedness, and equivalence data obtained using a rapid microbiological method system being validated for water bioburden testing. The case study demonstrates that the statistical methods described in the PDA Technical Report No. 33 chapter can be successfully applied to rapid microbiological method data sets and give the same comparability results for similarity or difference as the standard method. © PDA, Inc

A statistical test for the habitable zone concept

Science.gov (United States)

Checlair, J.; Abbot, D. S.

2017-12-01

Traditional habitable zone theory assumes that the silicate-weathering feedback regulates the atmospheric CO2 of planets within the habitable zone to maintain surface temperatures that allow for liquid water. There is some non-definitive evidence that this feedback has worked in Earth history, but it is untested in an exoplanet context. A critical prediction of the silicate-weathering feedback is that, on average, within the habitable zone planets that receive a higher stellar flux should have a lower CO2 in order to maintain liquid water at their surface. We can test this prediction directly by using a statistical approach involving low-precision CO2 measurements on many planets with future instruments such as JWST, LUVOIR, or HabEx. The purpose of this work is to carefully outline the requirements for such a test. First, we use a radiative-transfer model to compute the amount of CO2 necessary to maintain surface liquid water on planets for different values of insolation and planetary parameters. We run a large ensemble of Earth-like planets with different masses, atmospheric masses, inert atmospheric composition, cloud composition and level, and other greenhouse gases. Second, we post-process this data to determine the precision with which future instruments such as JWST, LUVOIR, and HabEx could measure the CO2. We then combine the variation due to planetary parameters and observational error to determine the number of planet measurements that would be needed to effectively marginalize over uncertainties and resolve the predicted trend in CO2 vs. stellar flux. The results of this work may influence the usage of JWST and will enhance mission planning for LUVOIR and HabEx.

Adaptive hatching hypotheses do not explain asynchronous ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

At the core of the suite of adaptive hatching hypotheses advanced to explain asynchronous hatching in birds is the assumption that if food is not limited then all the hatchlings will develop normally to adulthood. In this study Brown-headed Parrot Poicephalus cryptoxanthus chicks were hand fed and weighed on a daily basis.

A Bifactor Approach to Model Multifaceted Constructs in Statistical Mediation Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzalez, Oscar; MacKinnon, David P.

2018-01-01

Statistical mediation analysis allows researchers to identify the most important mediating constructs in the causal process studied. Identifying specific mediators is especially relevant when the hypothesized mediating construct consists of multiple related facets. The general definition of the construct and its facets might relate differently to…

Transfer of drug dissolution testing by statistical approaches: Case study

Science.gov (United States)

AL-Kamarany, Mohammed Amood; EL Karbane, Miloud; Ridouan, Khadija; Alanazi, Fars K.; Hubert, Philippe; Cherrah, Yahia; Bouklouze, Abdelaziz

2011-01-01

The analytical transfer is a complete process that consists in transferring an analytical procedure from a sending laboratory to a receiving laboratory. After having experimentally demonstrated that also masters the procedure in order to avoid problems in the future. Method of transfers is now commonplace during the life cycle of analytical method in the pharmaceutical industry. No official guideline exists for a transfer methodology in pharmaceutical analysis and the regulatory word of transfer is more ambiguous than for validation. Therefore, in this study, Gauge repeatability and reproducibility (R&R) studies associated with other multivariate statistics appropriates were successfully applied for the transfer of the dissolution test of diclofenac sodium as a case study from a sending laboratory A (accredited laboratory) to a receiving laboratory B. The HPLC method for the determination of the percent release of diclofenac sodium in solid pharmaceutical forms (one is the discovered product and another generic) was validated using accuracy profile (total error) in the sender laboratory A. The results showed that the receiver laboratory B masters the test dissolution process, using the same HPLC analytical procedure developed in laboratory A. In conclusion, if the sender used the total error to validate its analytical method, dissolution test can be successfully transferred without mastering the analytical method validation by receiving laboratory B and the pharmaceutical analysis method state should be maintained to ensure the same reliable results in the receiving laboratory. PMID:24109204

Statistical power analyses using G*Power 3.1: tests for correlation and regression analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Faul, Franz; Erdfelder, Edgar; Buchner, Axel; Lang, Albert-Georg

2009-11-01

G*Power is a free power analysis program for a variety of statistical tests. We present extensions and improvements of the version introduced by Faul, Erdfelder, Lang, and Buchner (2007) in the domain of correlation and regression analyses. In the new version, we have added procedures to analyze the power of tests based on (1) single-sample tetrachoric correlations, (2) comparisons of dependent correlations, (3) bivariate linear regression, (4) multiple linear regression based on the random predictor model, (5) logistic regression, and (6) Poisson regression. We describe these new features and provide a brief introduction to their scope and handling.

Testing of a "smart-pebble" for measuring particle transport statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Kitsikoudis, Vasileios; Avgeris, Loukas; Valyrakis, Manousos

2017-04-01

This paper presents preliminary results from novel experiments aiming to assess coarse sediment transport statistics for a range of transport conditions, via the use of an innovative "smart-pebble" device. This device is a waterproof sphere, which has 7 cm diameter and is equipped with a number of sensors that provide information about the velocity, acceleration and positioning of the "smart-pebble" within the flow field. A series of specifically designed experiments are carried out to monitor the entrainment of a "smart-pebble" for fully developed, uniform, turbulent flow conditions over a hydraulically rough bed. Specifically, the bed surface is configured to three sections, each of them consisting of well packed glass beads of slightly increasing size at the downstream direction. The first section has a streamwise length of L1=150 cm and beads size of D1=15 mm, the second section has a length of L2=85 cm and beads size of D2=22 mm, and the third bed section has a length of L3=55 cm and beads size of D3=25.4 mm. Two cameras monitor the area of interest to provide additional information regarding the "smart-pebble" movement. Three-dimensional flow measurements are obtained with the aid of an acoustic Doppler velocimeter along a measurement grid to assess the flow forcing field. A wide range of flow rates near and above the threshold of entrainment is tested, while using four distinct densities for the "smart-pebble", which can affect its transport speed and total momentum. The acquired data are analyzed to derive Lagrangian transport statistics and the implications of such an important experiment for the transport of particles by rolling are discussed. The flow conditions for the initiation of motion, particle accelerations and equilibrium particle velocities (translating into transport rates), statistics of particle impact and its motion, can be extracted from the acquired data, which can be further compared to develop meaningful insights for sediment transport

Statistical Decision Theory Estimation, Testing, and Selection

CERN Document Server

Liese, Friedrich

2008-01-01

Suitable for advanced graduate students and researchers in mathematical statistics and decision theory, this title presents an account of the concepts and a treatment of the major results of classical finite sample size decision theory and modern asymptotic decision theory

A New Statistical Approach to Characterize Chemical-Elicited Behavioral Effects in High-Throughput Studies Using Zebrafish.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guozhu Zhang

Full Text Available Zebrafish have become an important alternative model for characterizing chemical bioactivity, partly due to the efficiency at which systematic, high-dimensional data can be generated. However, these new data present analytical challenges associated with scale and diversity. We developed a novel, robust statistical approach to characterize chemical-elicited effects in behavioral data from high-throughput screening (HTS of all 1,060 Toxicity Forecaster (ToxCast™ chemicals across 5 concentrations at 120 hours post-fertilization (hpf. Taking advantage of the immense scale of data for a global view, we show that this new approach reduces bias introduced by extreme values yet allows for diverse response patterns that confound the application of traditional statistics. We have also shown that, as a summary measure of response for local tests of chemical-associated behavioral effects, it achieves a significant reduction in coefficient of variation compared to many traditional statistical modeling methods. This effective increase in signal-to-noise ratio augments statistical power and is observed across experimental periods (light/dark conditions that display varied distributional response patterns. Finally, we integrated results with data from concomitant developmental endpoint measurements to show that appropriate statistical handling of HTS behavioral data can add important biological context that informs mechanistic hypotheses.

The Hydrological Open Air Laboratory (HOAL) in Petzenkirchen: a hypotheses driven observatory

Science.gov (United States)

Blöschl, G.; Blaschke, A. P.; Broer, M.; Bucher, C.; Carr, G.; Chen, X.; Eder, A.; Exner-Kittridge, M.; Farnleitner, A.; Flores-Orozco, A.; Haas, P.; Hogan, P.; Kazemi Amiri, A.; Oismüller, M.; Parajka, J.; Silasari, R.; Stadler, P.; Strauß, P.; Vreugdenhil, M.; Wagner, W.; Zessner, M.

2015-07-01

Hydrological observatories bear a lot of resemblance to the more traditional research catchment concept but tend to differ in providing more long term facilities that transcend the lifetime of individual projects, are more strongly geared towards performing interdisciplinary research, and are often designed as networks to assist in performing collaborative science. This paper illustrates how the experimental and monitoring setup of an observatory, the 66 ha Hydrological Open Air Laboratory (HOAL) in Petzenkirchen, Lower Austria, has been established in a way that allows meaningful hypothesis testing. The overarching science questions guided site selection, identifying dissertation topics and the base monitoring. The specific hypotheses guided the dedicated monitoring and sampling, individual experiments, and repeated experiments with controlled boundary conditions. The purpose of the HOAL is to advance the understanding of water related flow and transport processes involving sediments, nutrients and microbes in small catchments. The HOAL catchment is ideally suited for this purpose, because it features a range of different runoff generation processes (surface runoff, springs, tile drains, wetlands), the nutrient inputs are known, and it is convenient from a logistic point of view as all instruments can be connected to the power grid and a high speed glassfibre Local Area Network. The multitude of runoff generation mechanisms in the catchment provide a genuine laboratory where hypotheses of flow and transport can be tested, either by controlled experiments or by contrasting sub-regions of different characteristics. This diversity also ensures that the HOAL is representative of a range of catchments around the world and the specific process findings from the HOAL are applicable to a variety of agricultural catchment settings. The HOAL is operated jointly by the Vienna University of Technology and the Federal Agency for Water Management and takes advantage of the

Cancer stem cell hypotheses: Impact on modern molecular

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

basis for the so-called cancer stem cell (CSC) hypotheses. The first exact proof of CSC ... or less equal ability for tumour regeneration and repopulation. (Nowell 1976 .... Also, there are reports that the 'stemness' (stem-like properties) of brain.

Decision Support Systems: Applications in Statistics and Hypothesis Testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Olsen, Christopher R.; Bozeman, William C.

1988-01-01

Discussion of the selection of appropriate statistical procedures by educators highlights a study conducted to investigate the effectiveness of decision aids in facilitating the use of appropriate statistics. Experimental groups and a control group using a printed flow chart, a computer-based decision aid, and a standard text are described. (11…

Evaluating Hypotheses of Plant Species Invasions on Mediterranean Islands: Inverse Patterns between Alien and Endemic Species

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Bjarnason

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Invasive alien species cause major changes to ecosystem functioning and patterns of biodiversity, and the main factors involved in invasion success remain contested. Using the Mediterranean island of Crete, Greece as a case study, we suggest a framework for analyzing spatial data of alien species distributions, based on environmental predictors, aiming to gain an understanding of their spatial patterns and spread. Mediterranean islands are under strong ecological pressure from invading species due to their restricted size and increased human impact. Four hypotheses of invasibility, the “propagule pressure hypothesis” (H1, “biotic resistance hypothesis vs. acceptance hypothesis” (H2, “disturbance-mediated hypothesis” (H3, and “environmental heterogeneity hypothesis” (H4 were tested. Using data from alien, native, and endemic vascular plant species, the propagule pressure, biotic resistance vs. acceptance, disturbance-mediated, and environmental heterogeneity hypotheses were tested with Generalized Additive Modeling (GAM of 39 models. Based on model selection, the optimal model includes the positive covariates of native species richness, the negative covariates of endemic species richness, and land area. Variance partitioning between the four hypotheses indicated that the biotic resistance vs. acceptance hypothesis explained the vast majority of the total variance. These results show that areas of high species richness have greater invasibility and support the acceptance hypothesis and “rich-get-richer” distribution of alien species. The negative correlation between alien and endemic species appears to be predominantly driven by altitude, with fewer alien and more endemic species at greater altitudes, and habitat richness. The negative relationship between alien and endemic species richness provides potential for understanding patterns of endemic and alien species on islands, contributing to more effective conservation

A conceptual guide to statistics using SPSS

CERN Document Server

Berkman, Elliot T

2011-01-01

Bridging an understanding of Statistics and SPSS. This unique text helps students develop a conceptual understanding of a variety of statistical tests by linking the ideas learned in a statistics class from a traditional statistics textbook with the computational steps and output from SPSS. Each chapter begins with a student-friendly explanation of the concept behind each statistical test and how the test relates to that concept. The authors then walk through the steps to compute the test in SPSS and the output, clearly linking how the SPSS procedure and output connect back to the conceptual u

Debate on GMOs health risks after statistical findings in regulatory tests.

Science.gov (United States)

de Vendômois, Joël Spiroux; Cellier, Dominique; Vélot, Christian; Clair, Emilie; Mesnage, Robin; Séralini, Gilles-Eric

2010-10-05

We summarize the major points of international debate on health risk studies for the main commercialized edible GMOs. These GMOs are soy, maize and oilseed rape designed to contain new pesticide residues since they have been modified to be herbicide-tolerant (mostly to Roundup) or to produce mutated Bt toxins. The debated alimentary chronic risks may come from unpredictable insertional mutagenesis effects, metabolic effects, or from the new pesticide residues. The most detailed regulatory tests on the GMOs are three-month long feeding trials of laboratory rats, which are biochemically assessed. The tests are not compulsory, and are not independently conducted. The test data and the corresponding results are kept in secret by the companies. Our previous analyses of regulatory raw data at these levels, taking the representative examples of three GM maize NK 603, MON 810, and MON 863 led us to conclude that hepatorenal toxicities were possible, and that longer testing was necessary. Our study was criticized by the company developing the GMOs in question and the regulatory bodies, mainly on the divergent biological interpretations of statistically significant biochemical and physiological effects. We present the scientific reasons for the crucially different biological interpretations and also highlight the shortcomings in the experimental protocols designed by the company. The debate implies an enormous responsibility towards public health and is essential due to nonexistent traceability or epidemiological studies in the GMO-producing countries.

Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-12-06

Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios

A step-up test procedure to find the minimum effective dose.