WorldWideScience

Sample records for terrestrial catastrophic outfloods

  1. Spiral arms, comets and terrestrial catastrophism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clube, S.V.M.; Napier, W.M.

    1982-01-01

    A review is presented of an hypothesis of terrestrial catastrophism in which comets grow in molecular clouds and are captured by the Sun as it passes through the spiral arms of the Galaxy. Assuming that comets are a major supplier of the Earth-crossing (Appollo) asteroid population, the latter fluctuates correspondingly and leads to episodes of terrestrial bombardment. Changes in the rotational momentum of core and mantle, generated by impacts, lead to episodes of magnetic field reversal and tectonic activity, while surface phenomena lead to ice-ages and mass extinctions. An episodic geophysical history with an interstellar connection is thus implied. If comets in spiral arms are necessary intermediaries in the process of star formation, the theory also has implications relating to early solar system history and galactic chemistry. These aspects are briefly discussed with special reference to the nature of spiral arms. (author)

  2. Significance of large Neptune-crossing objects for terrestrial catastrophism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steel, D.

    2014-07-01

    Over the past few decades a substantial number of objects have been discovered on orbits beyond Neptune (i.e. transneptunian objects, in various sub-classes), crossing Neptune's orbit (here: the Neptune-crossers of interest), and also others crossing the orbits of any or all of the jovian planets (i.e. Centaurs). These range in size from tens of kilometres across to hundreds of kilometres and more. Although formally classified as minor planets/asteroids, plus a few dwarf planets, the physical reality of these objects is that they are giant comets. That is, they seem to be composed largely of ices and if they were to enter the inner solar system then they would demonstrate the commonly-observed behaviour of comets such as outgassing, and the formation of ion and dust tails. Commonly-observed cometary behaviour, however, also includes fragmentation events and sometimes complete disintegration for no apparent cause (such as tidal disruption or thermal stresses). One might therefore wonder what the implications would be for life on Earth and terrestrial catastrophism if and when one of these objects, say 100 to 500 kilometres in size, dropped into a short-period orbit with perihelion distance (q) less than 1 au; or even q ˜ 5 au, given what Jupiter's gravity might do to it. How often might such events occur? One way to address that question would be to conduct numerical integrations of suitable test orbits and identify how often small-q orbits result, but this comes up against the problem of identifying very-infrequent events (with annual probabilities per object perhaps of order 10^{-12}-10^{-10}. For example, Emel'yanenko et al. [1] recently followed test orbits for approximately 5 × 10^{14} particle-years (8,925 objects with 200 clones of each, for 300 Myr) but because these were selected on the basis of initial values of q only below 36 (rather than ˜30) au many were not immediately Neptune-crossers; however, many test particles did eventually migrate into small

  3. Terrestrial catastrophe caused by cometary impact at the end of Cretaceous

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsü, Kenneth J.

    1980-05-01

    Evidence is presented indicating that the extinction, at the end of the Cretaceous, of large terrestrial animals was caused by atmospheric heating during a cometary impact and that the extinction of calcareous marine plankton was a consequence of poisoning by cyanide released by the fallen comet and of a catastrophic rise in calcite-compensation depth in the oceans after the detoxification of the cyanide.

  4. Climate catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budyko, Mikhail

    1999-05-01

    Climate catastrophes, which many times occurred in the geological past, caused the extinction of large or small populations of animals and plants. Changes in the terrestrial and marine biota caused by the catastrophic climate changes undoubtedly resulted in considerable fluctuations in global carbon cycle and atmospheric gas composition. Primarily, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas contents were affected. The study of these catastrophes allows a conclusion that climate system is very sensitive to relatively small changes in climate-forcing factors (transparency of the atmosphere, changes in large glaciations, etc.). It is important to take this conclusion into account while estimating the possible consequences of now occurring anthropogenic warming caused by the increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere.

  5. Earth's Largest Terrestrial Landslide (The Markagunt Gravity Slide of Southwest Utah): Insights from the Catastrophic Collapse of a Volcanic Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, D. B.; Biek, R. F.; Rowley, P. D.

    2015-12-01

    The newly discovered Miocene Markagunt gravity slide (MGS; Utah, USA) represents the largest volcanic landslide structure on Earth. Recent geologic mapping of the MGS indicates that it was a large contiguous volcanic sheet of allochthonous andesitic mudflow breccias and lava flows, volcaniclastic rocks, and intertonguing regional ash-flow tuffs that blanketed an area of at least 5000 km2 with an estimated volume of ~3000 km3. From its breakaway zone in the Tushar and Mineral Mountains to its southern limits, the MGS is over 95 km long and at least 65 km wide. The MGS consists of four distinct structural segments: 1) a high-angle breakaway segment, 2) a bedding-plane segment, ~60 km long and ~65 km wide, typically located within the volcaniclastic Eocene-Oligocene Brian Head Formation, 3) a ramp segment ~1-2 km wide where the slide cuts upsection, and 4) a former land surface segment where the upper-plate moved at least 35 km over the Miocene landscape. The presence of basal and lateral cataclastic breccias, clastic dikes, jigsaw puzzle fracturing, internal shears, pseudotachylytes, and the overall geometry of the MGS show that it represents a single catastrophic emplacement event. The MGS represents gravitationally induced collapse of the southwest sector of the Oligocene to Miocene Marysvale volcanic field. We suggest that continuous growth of the Marysvale volcanic field, loading more volcanic rocks on a structurally weak Brian Head basement, created conditions necessary for gravity sliding. In addition, inflation of the volcanic pile due to multiple magmatic intrusions tilted the strata gently southward, inducing lateral spreading of the sub-volcanic rocks prior to failure. Although similar smaller-scale failures have been recognized from individual volcanoes, the MGS represents a new class of low frequency but high impact hazards associated with catastrophic sector collapse of large volcanic fields containing multiple volcanoes. The relationship of the MGS to

  6. Celestial chaos and terrestrial catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, D.; Hunt, G.; McCrea, W.

    1978-01-01

    The possibility is examined that external factors may be very important in an explanation of many of the abrupt changes on the Earth over the past few million years. The key influences of this kind in terms of effects on life on the surface of our planet are probably those that produce changes in the climate. Several such possible extraterrestrial influences which have been actively debated in recent years are here considered including; variations in the Earth's orbit, intrinsic solar variability, encounters of the Solar System with dense interstellar clouds, encounters with nearby supernovae, encounters with cometary debris, and giant solar flares. (U.K.)

  7. Seizing Catastrophes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2013-01-01

    to a distant past but takes place in the present. They use the term Nakba not only to refer to the catastrophe of 1948 but also to designate current catastrophes, such as the Danish Muhammad cartoons affair in 2005 and the Israeli invasion of Gaza in 2008. Through an analysis of the 60th commemoration...

  8. On sociological catastrophe analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clausen, L.

    1974-01-01

    The present paper deals with standard terms of sociological catastrophe theory hitherto existing, collective behaviour during the catastrophe, and consequences for the empiric catastrophe sociology. (RW) [de

  9. Replication Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toledo, Luis; Neelsen, Kai John; Lukas, Jiri

    2017-01-01

    Proliferating cells rely on the so-called DNA replication checkpoint to ensure orderly completion of genome duplication, and its malfunction may lead to catastrophic genome disruption, including unscheduled firing of replication origins, stalling and collapse of replication forks, massive DNA...... breakage, and, ultimately, cell death. Despite many years of intensive research into the molecular underpinnings of the eukaryotic replication checkpoint, the mechanisms underlying the dismal consequences of its failure remain enigmatic. A recent development offers a unifying model in which the replication...... checkpoint guards against global exhaustion of rate-limiting replication regulators. Here we discuss how such a mechanism can prevent catastrophic genome disruption and suggest how to harness this knowledge to advance therapeutic strategies to eliminate cancer cells that inherently proliferate under...

  10. Catastrophe medicine; Medecine de catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lebreton, A. [Service Technique de l`Energie Electrique et des Grands Barrages (STEEGB), (France)

    1996-12-31

    The `Catastrophe Medicine` congress which took place in Amiens (France) in December 5 to 7 1996 was devoted to the assessment and management of risks and hazards in natural and artificial systems. The methods of risk evaluation and prevision were discussed in the context of dams accidents with the analysis of experience feedbacks and lessons gained from the organisation of emergency plans. Three round table conferences were devoted to the importance of psychological aspects during such major crises. (J.S.)

  11. Cosmic Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, J. Craig

    2014-08-01

    Preface; 1. Setting the stage: star formation and hydrogen burning in single stars; 2. Stellar death: the inexorable grip of gravity; 3. Dancing with stars: binary stellar evolution; 4. Accretion disks: flat stars; 5. White Dwarfs: quantum dots; 6. Supernovae: stellar catastrophes; 7. Supernova 1987A: lessons and enigmas; 8. Neutron stars: atoms with attitude; 9. Black holes in theory: into the abyss; 10. Black holes in fact: exploring the reality; 11. Gamma-ray bursts, black holes and the universe: long, long ago and far, far away; 12. Supernovae and the universe; 13. Worm holes and time machines: tunnels in space and time; 14. Beyond: the frontiers; Index.

  12. Reverse Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemysław Czapliński

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The principal notion of the article–a “backward catastrophe”– stands for a catastrophe which occurs unseen until it becomes recognized and which broadens its destructive activity until it has been recognized. This concept in the article has been referred to the Shoah. The main thesis is that the recognition of the actual influence of the Holocaust began in Polish culture in the mid-1980s (largely it started with the film by Claude Lanzmann Shoah and the essay by Jan Błoński Biedni Polacy patrzą na getto [“The Poor Poles Look at the Ghetto”], that is when the question: “What happened to the Jews”, assumes the form: “Did the things that happened to the Jews, also happened to the Poles?”. Cognitive and ethical reorientation leads to the revealing of the hidden consequences of the Holocaust reaching as far as the present day and undermining the foundations of collective identity. In order to understand this situation (and adopt potentially preventive actions Polish society should be recognized as a postcatastrophic one.

  13. Catastrophes control problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velichenko, V.V.

    1994-01-01

    The problem of catastrophe control is discussed. Catastrophe control aims to withdraw responsible engineering constructions out of the catastrophe. The mathematical framework of catastrophes control systems is constructed. It determines the principles of systems filling by the concrete physical contents and, simultaneously, permits to employ modern control methods for the synthesis of optimal withdrawal strategy for protected objects

  14. The Ongoing Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2015-01-01

    as camps. Based on fieldwork among Palestinians in the Danish camps, this article explores why my interlocutors describe their current lives as a catastrophe. Al-Nakba literally means the catastrophe and, in Palestinian national discourse, it is used to designate the event of 1948, when the Palestinians...

  15. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rawhya R. El-Shereef

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports one case of successfully treated patients suffering from a rare entity, the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS. Management of this patient is discussed in detail.

  16. Catastrophe Theory and Caustics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gravesen, Jens

    1983-01-01

    It is shown by elementary methods that in codimension two and under the assumption that light rays are straight lines, a caustic is the catastrophe set for a time function. The general case is also discussed....

  17. Protocols of a catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stscherbak, J.

    1988-01-01

    In unusually frank terms the author, a journalist and epidemiologist, describes the catastrophe of Chernobyl as the 'most pathetic and important' experience of the Soviet people after World War II. Documents, interviews and statements of persons concerned trace the disaster of those days that surpasses imagination and describe how individual persons witnessed the coming true of visions of terror. (orig./HSCH) [de

  18. Histories of terrestrial planets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benes, K.

    1981-01-01

    The uneven historical development of terrestrial planets - Mercury, Venus, Earth, Moon and Mars - is probably due to the differences in their size, weight and rotational dynamics in association with the internal planet structure, their distance from the Sun, etc. A systematic study of extraterrestrial planets showed that the time span of internal activity was not the same for all bodies. It is assumed that the initial history of all terrestrial planets was marked with catastrophic events connected with the overall dynamic development of the solar system. In view of the fact that the cores of small terrestrial bodies cooled quicker, their geological development almost stagnated after two or three thousand million years. This is what probably happened to the Mercury and the Moon as well as the Mars. Therefore, traces of previous catastrophic events were preserved on the surface of the planets. On the other hand, the Earth is the most metamorphosed terrestrial planet and compared to the other planets appears to be atypical. Its biosphere is significantly developed as well as the other shell components, its hydrosphere and atmosphere, and its crust is considerably differentiated. (J.P.)

  19. Direct catastrophic injury in sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boden, Barry P

    2005-11-01

    Catastrophic sports injuries are rare but tragic events. Direct (traumatic) catastrophic injury results from participating in the skills of a sport, such as a collision in football. Football is associated with the greatest number of direct catastrophic injuries for all major team sports in the United States. Pole vaulting, gymnastics, ice hockey, and football have the highest incidence of direct catastrophic injuries for sports in which males participate. In most sports, the rate of catastrophic injury is higher at the collegiate than at the high school level. Cheerleading is associated with the highest number of direct catastrophic injuries for all sports in which females participate. Indirect (nontraumatic) injury is caused by systemic failure as a result of exertion while participating in a sport. Cardiovascular conditions, heat illness, exertional hyponatremia, and dehydration can cause indirect catastrophic injury. Understanding the common mechanisms of injury and prevention strategies for direct catastrophic injuries is critical in caring for athletes.

  20. Microtubule catastrophe and rescue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Melissa K; Zanic, Marija; Howard, Jonathon

    2013-02-01

    Microtubules are long cylindrical polymers composed of tubulin subunits. In cells, microtubules play an essential role in architecture and motility. For example, microtubules give shape to cells, serve as intracellular transport tracks, and act as key elements in important cellular structures such as axonemes and mitotic spindles. To accomplish these varied functions, networks of microtubules in cells are very dynamic, continuously remodeling through stochastic length fluctuations at the ends of individual microtubules. The dynamic behavior at the end of an individual microtubule is termed 'dynamic instability'. This behavior manifests itself by periods of persistent microtubule growth interrupted by occasional switching to rapid shrinkage (called microtubule 'catastrophe'), and then by switching back from shrinkage to growth (called microtubule 'rescue'). In this review, we summarize recent findings which provide new insights into the mechanisms of microtubule catastrophe and rescue, and discuss the impact of these findings in regards to the role of microtubule dynamics inside of cells. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam; Ryu, Sang Wan

    2006-01-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction

  2. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam [Chosun University Hospital, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Sang Wan [Miraero21 Medical Center, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-09-15

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction.

  3. CATASTROPHIC EVENTS MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciumas Cristina

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the emergence and evolution of catastrophe models (cat models. Starting with the present context of extreme weather events and features of catastrophic risk (cat risk we’ll make a chronological illustration from a theoretical point of view of the main steps taken for building such models. In this way the importance of interdisciplinary can be observed. The first cat model considered contains three modules. For each of these indentified modules: hazard, vulnerability and financial losses a detailed overview and also an exemplification of a potential case of an earthquake that measures more than 7 on Richter scale occurring nowadays in Bucharest will be provided. The key areas exposed to earthquake in Romania will be identified. Then, based on past catastrophe data and taking into account present conditions of housing stock, insurance coverage and the population of Bucharest the impact will be quantified by determining potential losses. In order to accomplish this work we consider a scenario with data representing average values for: dwelling’s surface, location, finishing works. On each step we’ll make a reference to the earthquake on March 4 1977 to see what would happen today if a similar event occurred. The value of Bucharest housing stock will be determined taking firstly the market value, then the replacement value and ultimately the real value to quantify potential damages. Through this approach we can find the insurance coverage of potential losses and also the uncovered gap. A solution that may be taken into account by public authorities, for example by Bucharest City Hall will be offered: in case such an event occurs the impossibility of paying compensations to insured people, rebuilding infrastructure and public buildings and helping the suffering persons should be avoided. An actively public-private partnership should be created between government authorities, the Natural Disaster Insurance Pool, private

  4. The critical catastrophe revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Mulatier, Clélia; Rosso, Alberto; Dumonteil, Eric; Zoia, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    The neutron population in a prototype model of nuclear reactor can be described in terms of a collection of particles confined in a box and undergoing three key random mechanisms: diffusion, reproduction due to fissions, and death due to absorption events. When the reactor is operated at the critical point, and fissions are exactly compensated by absorptions, the whole neutron population might in principle go to extinction because of the wild fluctuations induced by births and deaths. This phenomenon, which has been named critical catastrophe, is nonetheless never observed in practice: feedback mechanisms acting on the total population, such as human intervention, have a stabilizing effect. In this work, we revisit the critical catastrophe by investigating the spatial behaviour of the fluctuations in a confined geometry. When the system is free to evolve, the neutrons may display a wild patchiness (clustering). On the contrary, imposing a population control on the total population acts also against the local fluctuations, and may thus inhibit the spatial clustering. The effectiveness of population control in quenching spatial fluctuations will be shown to depend on the competition between the mixing time of the neutrons (i.e. the average time taken for a particle to explore the finite viable space) and the extinction time

  5. Paraboles et catastrophes

    CERN Document Server

    Thom, René

    1983-01-01

    René Thom, mathématicien français, membre de l'Académie des Sciences, s'est vu décerner en 1958 la médaille Field, équivalent du Prix Nobel en mathématiques, pour ses créations intellectuelles, la " théorie des catastrophes ", regard nouveau sur toutes les transformations qui adviennent de manière brusque, imprévisible, dramatique. Dans ces entretiens qui vont de la mathématique à l'embryologie, de la linguistique à l'anthropologie et à l'histoire, René Thom expose les grandes lignes de la théorie des catastrophes et passe en revue, avec un esprit à la fois critique et passionné, les grands thèmes scientifiques de notre époque, de la physique atomique à la biologie moléculaire, du " progrès " scientifique et technologique aux connexions complexes entre la société et la science. " Ce petit livre est une extraordinaire réussite en vulgarisation ". (Jean Largeault)

  6. Fukushinobyl, the impossible catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boceno, Laurent

    2012-01-01

    With the emergence of variety of health and environmental crisis or catastrophes (Seveso, Bhopal, Chernobyl, AIDS, contaminated blood, mad cow, influenzas), the author proposes thoughts about the fact that it seems we are not in the era of industrial societies any longer, but in that of societies of risk. He more particularly focuses on Chernobyl and Fukushima to analyse how a social framework is built up to integrate forms of institutionalisation of multifaceted vulnerability, these institutional logics becoming latent social pathologies. In this respect, he more particularly discusses the catastrophic share of nuclear. He shows how what can be considered as a risk is socialised, dissimulated by priority, and then addresses the management of consequences of Chernobyl and how it is used to address the Japanese present situation. He notably outlines a kind of collusion between the WHO and the IAEA about nuclear issues. In his respect, he recalls a statement made by the WHO saying that, from a mental health point of view, the most satisfying solution for the future of pacific uses of nuclear energy would be the emergence of a new generation who would have learned to cope with ignorance and uncertainty

  7. Quantum catastrophe of slow light

    OpenAIRE

    Leonhardt, Ulf

    2001-01-01

    Catastrophes are at the heart of many fascinating optical phenomena. The rainbow, for example, is a ray catastrophe where light rays become infinitely intense. The wave nature of light resolves the infinities of ray catastrophes while drawing delicate interference patterns such as the supernumerary arcs of the rainbow. Black holes cause wave singularities. Waves oscillate with infinitely small wave lengths at the event horizon where time stands still. The quantum nature of light avoids this h...

  8. Catastrophic antiphospholipid Syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medina Velasquez, Yimy; Felix Restrepo Suarez, Jose; Iglesias Gamarra, Antonio

    2001-01-01

    The antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is characterized by venous, arterial thrombosis and miscarriages along with lupic anticoagulant and antibodies against anticardiolipin. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) has been described since 1992 like a multiple organic dysfunction caused by multiple vascular thrombosis in three or more organs. The patients who suffer from this syndrome may have or not history of APS. There are two or three mechanisms that may cause the CAPS, alone or in combination: These are: 1. The multisystemic thrombotic disease with emphasis in microvasculature occlusion of the organs and occlusion of big arterial or veins 2. The disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) superimpose in 15% to 50% of the patients that, of course, conducted to an occlusive disease of arterioles, veins or capillaries. 3. A systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) induced by citoquines. In this review it is described clinical and laboratory features, pathogenesis and treatment of CAPS. For this purpose, it was searched for Medline from 1993 to 2000 and revised the most significant issues obtained by this medium

  9. Energy catastrophes and energy consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, G.

    1991-01-01

    The possibility of energy catastrophes in the production of energy serves to make estimation of the true social costs of energy production difficult. As a result, there is a distinct possibility that the private marginal cost curve of energy producers lies to the left or right of the true cost curve. If so, social welfare will not be maximized, and underconsumption or overconsumption of fuels will exist. The occurrence of energy catastrophes and observance of the market reaction to these occurrences indicates that overconsumption of energy has been the case in the past. Postulations as to market reactions to further energy catastrophes lead to the presumption that energy consumption levels remain above those that are socially optimal

  10. Financing Losses from Catastrophic Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-11-01

    often held in the form of bonds, the interest on which is subject to corporate income tax , which reduces the net earnings to each insurer’s shareholders...course; it is a basic feature of the corporate income tax . But, as explained above, catastrophe insurance is distinguished from other types of

  11. Reactor accidents and nuclear catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchhoff, R.; Linde, H.J.

    1979-01-01

    Assuming some preliminary knowledge of the fundamentals of atomic physics, the book describes the effects of ionizing radiation on the human organism. In order to assess the potential hazards of reactor accidents and the extent of a nuclear catastrophe, the technology of power generation in nuclear power stations is presented together with its potential dangers as well as the physical and medical processes occurring during a nuclear weapons explosion. The special medical aspects are presented which range from first aid in the case of a catastrophe to the accute radiation syndrome, the treatment of burns to the therapy of late radiolesions. Finally, it is confirmed that the treatment of radiation injured persons does not give rise to basically new medical problems. (orig./HP) [de

  12. Catastrophic events and older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloyd, Elizabeth; Dyer, Carmel B

    2010-12-01

    The plight of older adults during catastrophic events is a societal concern. Older persons have an increased prevalence of cognitive disorders, chronic illnesses, and mobility problems that limit their ability to cope. These disorders may result in a lack of mental capacity and the ability to discern when they should evacuate or resolve problems encountered during a catastrophe. Some older persons may have limited transportation options, and many of the elderly survivors are at increased risk for abuse, neglect, and exploitation. Recommendations for future catastrophic events include the development of a federal tracking system for elders and other vulnerable adults, the designation of separate shelter areas for elders and other vulnerable adults, and involvement of gerontological professionals in all aspects of emergency preparedness and care delivery, including training of frontline workers. Preparation through preevent planning that includes region-specific social services, medical and public health resources, volunteers, and facilities for elders and vulnerable adults is critical. Elders need to be protected from abuse and fraud during catastrophic events. A public health triage system for elders and other vulnerable populations in pre- and postdisaster situations is useful, and disaster preparedness is paramount. Communities and members of safety and rescue teams must address ethical issues before an event. When older adults are involved, consideration needs to be given to triage decision making, transporting those who are immobile, the care of older adults who receive palliative care, and the equitable distribution of resources. Nurses are perfectly equipped with the skills, knowledge, and training needed to plan and implement disaster preparedness programs. In keeping with the tradition of Florence Nightingale, nurses can assume several crucial roles in disaster preparedness for older adults. Nurses possess the ability to participate and lead community

  13. Coping with ecological catastrophe: crossing major thresholds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Cairns, Jr.

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available The combination of human population growth and resource depletion makes catastrophes highly probable. No long-term solutions to the problems of humankind will be discovered unless sustainable use of the planet is achieved. The essential first step toward this goal is avoiding or coping with global catastrophes that result from crossing major ecological thresholds. Decreasing the number of global catastrophes will reduce the risks associated with destabilizing ecological systems, which could, in turn, destabilize societal systems. Many catastrophes will be local, regional, or national, but even these upheavals will have global consequences. Catastrophes will be the result of unsustainable practices and the misuse of technology. However, avoiding ecological catastrophes will depend on the development of eco-ethics, which is subject to progressive maturation, comments, and criticism. Some illustrative catastrophes have been selected to display some preliminary issues of eco-ethics.

  14. The Climate Catastrophe as Blockbuster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskjær, Mikkel Fugl

    2013-01-01

    Modern disaster films constitute a specific cultural form that speaks to the anxieties of the “risk society.” This essay looks at how risks like climate change is presented and constructed in popular culture. It regards blockbuster representations as part of a wider discourse of “catastrophism......” within the realm of public climate change communication. For that reason, the essay centers on the interplay between news media and entertainment. It argues that blockbuster disaster films represent an inversion of traditional risk and disaster news....

  15. A catastrophe in quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ignatovich, V.K.

    2004-01-01

    The standard scattering theory (SST) in nonrelativistic quantum mechanics (QM) is analyzed. Self-contradictions of SST are deconstructed. A direct way to calculate scattering probability without introduction of a finite volume is discussed. Substantiation of SST in textbooks with the help of wave packets is shown to be incomplete. A complete theory of wave packet scattering on a fixed center is presented, and its similarity to the plane wave scattering is demonstrated. The neutron scattering on a monatomic gas is investigated, and several problems are pointed out. A catastrophic ambiguity of the cross section is revealed, and a way to resolve this ambiguity is discussed

  16. Terrestrial magnetosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pande, D.C.; Agarwal, D.C.

    1982-01-01

    This paper presents a review about terrestrial magnetosphere. During the last few years considerable investigation have been carried out about the properties of Solar Wind and its interaction with planetary magnetic fields. It is therefore of high importance to accumulate all the investigations in a comprehensive form. The paper reviews the property of earth's magnetosphere, magnetosheath, magneto pause, polar cusps, bow shook and plasma sheath. (author)

  17. Gravothermal catastrophe of finite amplitude

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hachisu, I; Sugimoto, D [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Coll. of General Education; Nakada, Y; Nomoto, K

    1978-08-01

    Development of the gravothermal catastrophe is followed numerically for self-gravitating gas system enclosed by an adiabatic wall, which is isothermal in the initial state. It is found that the final fate of the catastrophe is in two ways depending on the initial perturbations. When the initial perturbation produces a temperature distribution decreasing outward, the contraction proceeds in the central region and the central density increases unlimitedly, as the heat flows outward. When the initial temperature distribution is increasing outward, on the other hand, the central region expands as the heat flows into the central region. Then the density contrast is reduced and finally the system reaches another isothermal configuration with the same energy but with a lower density contrast and a higher entropy. This final configuration is gravothermally stable and may be called a thermal system. In the former case of the unlimited contraction, the final density profile is determined essentially by the density and temperature dependence of the heat conductivity. In the case of a system under the force of the inverse square law, the final density distribution is well approximated by a power law so that the mass contained in the condensed core is relatively small. A possibility of formation of a black hole in stellar systems is also discussed.

  18. Gravothermal catastrophe of finite amplitude

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hachisu, Izumi; Sugimoto, Daiichiro; Nakada, Yoshikazu; Nomoto, Ken-ichi.

    1978-01-01

    Development of the gravothermal catastrophe is followed numerically for self-gravitating gas system enclosed by an adiabatic wall, which is isothermal in the initial state. It is found that the final fate of the catastrophe is in two ways depending on the initial perturbations. When the initial perturbation produces a temperature distribution decreasing outward, the contraction proceeds in the central region and the central density increases unlimitedly, as the heat flows outward. When the initial temperature distribution is increasing outward, on the other hand, the central region expands as the heat flows into the central region. Then the density contrast is reduced and finally the system reaches another isothermal configuration with the same energy but with a lower density contrast and a higher entropy. This final configuration is gravothermally stable and may be called a thermal system. In the former case of the unlimited contraction, the final density profile is determined essentially by the density and temperature dependence of the heat conductivity. In the case of a system under the force of the inverse square law, the final density distribution is well approximated by a power law so that the mass contained in the condensed core is relatively small. A possibility of formation of a black hole in stellar systems is also discussed. (author)

  19. How are the catastrophical risks quantifiable

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    For the assessment and evaluation of industrial risks the question must be asked how are the catastrophical risks quantifiable. Typical real catastrophical risks and risk assessment based on modelling assumptions have been placed against each other in order to put the risks into proper perspective. However, the society is risk averse when there is a catastrophic potential of severe accidents in a large scale industrial facility even though there is extremely low probability of occurence. (orig.) [de

  20. Theory of a slow-light catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leonhardt, Ulf

    2002-01-01

    In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow, the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole, the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. This paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, Nature (London) 415, 406 (2002)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light

  1. Theory of a slow-light catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonhardt, Ulf

    2002-04-01

    In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow, the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole, the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. This paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, Nature (London) 415, 406 (2002)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light.

  2. Theory of a Slow-Light Catastrophe

    OpenAIRE

    Leonhardt, Ulf

    2001-01-01

    In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. The paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, arXiv:physics/0111058, Nature (in press)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light.

  3. Extensional rheometer based on viscoelastic catastrophes outline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    The present invention relates to a method and a device for determining viscoelastic properties of a fluid. The invention resides inter alia in the generation of viscoelastic catastrophes in confined systems for use in the context of extensional rheology. The viscoelastic catastrophe is according ...... to the invention generated in a bistable fluid system, and the flow conditions for which the catastrophe occurs can be used as a fingerprint of the fluid's viscoelastic properties in extensional flow....

  4. Catastrophizing in Patients with Burning Mouth Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana ANDABAK ROGULJ

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Burning mouth syndrome (BMS is an idiopathic painful condition which manifests with burning sensations in the oral cavity in patients with clinically normal oral mucosa and without any local and/or systemic causative factor. Catastrophizing is defined as an exaggerated negative orientation toward pain stimuli and pain experience. The aim of this study was to examine the association between catastrophizing and clinical parameters of BMS, and to examine the association between catastrophizing and the quality of life in patients with BMS. Materials and methods: Anonymous questionnaire consisting of 3 parts (demographic and clinical data with 100 mm visual analogue scale (VAS, Croatian version of the Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP-14 scale and Croatian version of the Pain Catastrophizing scale (PC, was distributed to 30 patients diagnosed with BMS. Results: A higher level of catastrophizing was clinically significant in 30% of the patients. Total catastrophizing score and all three subcomponents of catastrophizing significantly correlated with the intensity of symptoms, but did not correlate with the duration of symptoms. Gender and previous treatment did not affect the catastrophizing. Conclusion: Obtaining the information about catastrophizing could help a clinician to identify patients with negative behavioural patterns. Additional psychological intervention in these individuals could reduce/eliminate negative cognitive factors and improve coping with chronic painful condition such as BMS.

  5. CATASTROPHIC DISRUPTION OF COMET ISON

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keane, Jacqueline V.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Milam, Stefanie N.; Charnley, Steven B. [Astrochemistry Laboratory, NASA GSFC, MS 690, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Coulson, Iain M. [Joint Astronomy Center, 660 North Aohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States); Sekanina, Zdenek [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Kracht, Rainer, E-mail: keane@ifa.hawaii.edu [Ostlandring 53, D-25335 Elmshorn, Schleswig-Holstein (Germany)

    2016-11-10

    We report submillimeter 450 and 850 μ m dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31–0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 ( r {sub h} = 0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60″ (>10{sup 5} km) in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 μ m image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing ∼5.2 × 10{sup 10} kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

  6. Catastrophe Finance: An Emerging Discipline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsner, James B.; Burch, R. King; Jagger, Thomas H.

    2009-08-01

    While the recent disasters in the world's financial markets demonstrate that finance theory remains far from perfected, science also faces steep challenges in the quest to predict and manage the effects of natural disasters. Worldwide, as many as half a million people have died in disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and tropical cyclones since the turn of the 21st century [Wirtz, 2008]. Further, natural disasters can lead to extreme financial losses, and independent financial collapses can be exacerbated by natural disasters. In financial cost, 2008 was the second most expensive year on record for such catastrophes and for financial market declines. These extreme events in the natural and financial realms push the issue of risk management to the fore, expose the deficiencies of existing knowledge and practice, and suggest that progress requires further research and training at the graduate level.

  7. Academic Training: Predicting Natural Catastrophes

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz

    2005-01-01

    2005-2006 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 December from 11:00 to 12:00 - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Predicting Natural Catastrophes E. OKAL / Northwestern University, Evanston, USA 1. Tsunamis -- Introduction Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of 'tsunami earthquakes' Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and re...

  8. Catastrophic Disruption of Comet ISON

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keane, Jacqueline V.; Milam, Stefanie N.; Coulson, Iain M.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Sekanina, Zdenek; Kracht, Rainer; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J.; Charnley, Steven B.

    2016-01-01

    We report submillimeter 450 and 850 microns dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31-0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 (rh?=?0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60? (greater than 10(exp 5) km in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 microns image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing approximately 5.2?×?10(exp 10) kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

  9. Climate Catastrophe - The Giant Swindle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doerell, P. E.

    1998-01-01

    Energy is the life-blood of civilization. More than 80% of global energy is supplied by fossil fuels. And this will continue for the foreseeable future - if an implementation of the Kyoto Protocol does not lead to a dramatic decrease of these fuels causing worldwide turmoil of unprecedented dimensions. However, the scaremongering with a 'climate catastrophe' allegedly caused by 'greenhouse gas' emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is a huge hoax. Its only 'scientific' base is the IPCC management's enigmatic assessment: 'The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on climate'. But even IPCC had to admit at the World Energy Conference in Tokyo in 1996: 'We have no evidence'. And all the scaremongering assertions of the protagonists of 'global warming' have been convincingly refuted by the world elite of scientists. This paper will: - show how the whole anti-CO 2 campaign has been manipulated from the very beginning till today; - give great many scientific and logical reason why the arguments of the scaremongers are incorrect; - outline the catastrophic economic and social consequences of the proposed anti-CO 2 measures - without any benefit for the environment of climate; - name the driving forces behind this campaign and their interests. The witchhunt against CO 2 is an incredible scientific and political scandal, CO 2 does not damage the environment at all, and labelling it a 'climate killer' is absurd. On the contrary, this gas is vital for the life on our plant, and a stronger concentration of CO 2 will be beneficial by doubling plant growth and with this combatting global famine. And to pretend that we could influence - with a CO 2 tax - the climate, is insane arrogance. Man is absolutely helpless when confronted with the forces of nature. The squandering of multimillions USD of taxpayer's money for the travelling circus of 'Climate summits' and the stultification of the population must stop. The 'global warming' lie is the biggest

  10. Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seth D. Baum

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Global catastrophes, such as nuclear war, pandemics and ecological collapse threaten the sustainability of human civilization. To date, most work on global catastrophes has focused on preventing the catastrophes, neglecting what happens to any catastrophe survivors. To address this gap in the literature, this paper discusses adaptation to and recovery from global catastrophe. The paper begins by discussing the importance of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery, noting that successful adaptation/recovery could have value on even astronomical scales. The paper then discusses how the adaptation/recovery could proceed and makes connections to several lines of research. Research on resilience theory is considered in detail and used to develop a new method for analyzing the environmental and social stressors that global catastrophe survivors would face. This method can help identify options for increasing survivor resilience and promoting successful adaptation and recovery. A key point is that survivors may exist in small isolated communities disconnected from global trade and, thus, must be able to survive and rebuild on their own. Understanding the conditions facing isolated survivors can help promote successful adaptation and recovery. That said, the processes of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery are highly complex and uncertain; further research would be of great value.

  11. Catastrophe theory with application in nuclear technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valeca, Serban Constantin

    2002-01-01

    The monograph is structured on the following seven chapters: 1. Correlation of risk, catastrophe and chaos at the level of polyfunctional systems with nuclear injection; 1.1 Approaching the risk at the level of power systems; 1.2 Modelling the chaos-catastrophe-risk correlation in the structure of integrated classical and nuclear processes; 2. Catastrophe theory applied in ecosystems models and applications; 2.1 Posing the problems in catastrophe theory; 2.2 Application of catastrophe theory in the engineering of the power ecosystems with nuclear injection; 4.. Decision of abatement of the catastrophic risk based on minimal costs; 4.1 The nuclear power systems sensitive to risk-catastrophe-chaos in the structure of minimal costs; 4.2 Evaluating the market structure on the basis of power minimal costs; 4.3 Decisions in power systems built on minimal costs; 5. Models of computing the minimal costs in classical and nuclear power systems; 5.1 Calculation methodologies of power minimal cost; 5.2 Calculation methods of minimal costs in nuclear power sector; 6. Expert and neuro expert systems for supervising the risk-catastrophe-chaos correlation; 6.1 The structure of expert systems; 6.2 Application of the neuro expert program; 7. Conclusions and operational proposals; 7.1 A synthesis of the problems presented in this work; 7.2 Highlighting the novel aspects applicable in the power systems with nuclear injection

  12. Does catastrophic thinking enhance oesophageal pain sensitivity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martel, M O; Olesen, A E; Jørgensen, D

    2016-01-01

    that catastrophic thinking exerts an influence on oesophageal pain sensitivity, but not necessarily on the magnitude of acid-induced oesophageal sensitization. WHAT DOES THIS STUDY ADD?: Catastrophizing is associated with heightened pain sensitivity in the oesophagus. This was substantiated by assessing responses...

  13. Treatment of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazzaz, Nayef M.; McCune, W. Joseph; Knight, Jason S.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose of review Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a severe manifestation of APS. While affecting only 1% of patients with APS, the condition is frequently fatal if not recognized and treated early. Here, we will review the current approach to diagnosis and treatment of CAPS. Recent findings Data from the international “CAPS registry,” spearheaded by the European Forum on Antiphospholipid Antibodies, have improved our understanding of at-risk patients, typical clinical features, and associated/precipitating diagnoses. Current guidelines also continue to support a role for anticoagulants and glucocorticoids as foundation therapy in all patients. Finally, new basic science and case series suggest that novel therapies, such as rituximab and eculizumab warrant further study. Summary Attention to associated diagnoses such as infection and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are critical at the time of diagnosis. All patients should be treated with anticoagulation, corticosteroids, and possibly plasma exchange. In patients with SLE, cyclophosphamide should also be considered. In refractory or relapsing cases, new therapies such as rituximab and possibly eculizumab may be options, but need further study. PMID:26927441

  14. Terrestrial ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1977-01-01

    The main effort of the Terrestrial Ecology Division has been redirected to a comprehensive study of the Espiritu Santo Drainage Basin located in northeastern Puerto Rico. The general objective are to provide baseline ecological data for future environmental assessment studies at the local and regional levels, and to provide through an ecosystem approach data for the development of management alternatives for the wise utilization of energy, water, and land resources. The interrelationships among climate, vegetation, soils, and man, and their combined influence upon the hydrologic cycle will be described and evaluated. Environmental management involves planning and decision making, and both require an adequate data base. At present, little is known about the interworkings of a complete, integrated system such as a drainage basin. A literature survey of the main research areas confirmed that, although many individual ecologically oriented studies have been carried out in a tropical environment, few if any provide the data base required for environmental management. In view of rapidly changing socio-economic conditions and natural resources limitations, management urgently requires data from these systems: physical (climatological), biological, and cultural. This integrated drainage basin study has been designed to provide such data. The scope of this program covers the hydrologic cycle as it is affected by the interactions of the physical, biological, and cultural systems

  15. Catastrophic event modeling. [lithium thionyl chloride batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, H. A.

    1981-01-01

    A mathematical model for the catastrophic failures (venting or explosion of the cell) in lithium thionyl chloride batteries is presented. The phenomenology of the various processes leading to cell failure is reviewed.

  16. Catastrophic avalanches and methods of their control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Volodicheva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Definition of such phenomenon as “catastrophic avalanche” is presented in this arti-cle. Several situations with releases of catastrophic avalanches in mountains of Caucasus, Alps, and Central Asia are investigated. Materials of snow-avalanche ob-servations performed since 1960s at the Elbrus station of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (Central Caucasus were used for this work. Complex-valued measures of engineering protection demonstrating different efficiencies are consid-ered.

  17. Pricing catastrophic bonds for earthquakes in Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Cabrera, Brenda López

    2006-01-01

    After the occurrence of a natural disaster, the reconstruction can be financed with catastrophic bonds (CAT bonds) or reinsurance. For insurers, reinsurers and other corporations CAT bonds provide multi year protection without the credit risk present in reinsurance. For investors CAT bonds offer attractive returns and reduction of portfolio risk, since CAT bonds defaults are uncorrelated with defaults of other securities. As the study of natural catastrophe models plays an important role in t...

  18. PARAMETRIC INSURANCE COVER FOR NATURAL CATASTROPHE RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serghei Margulescu

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available With economic losses of over USD 370 bn caused by 325 catastrophic events, 2011 ranks as the worst ever year in terms of costs to society due to natural catastrophes and man-made disasters. Inthe same time, 2011 is the second most expensive year in the history for the insurance industry, with insured losses from catastrophic events amounting to USD 116 bn. Both the high level of damages and insured losses, as well as the unprecedented gap between the two values, made insurers and reinsurers worldwide to understand that some risks had so far been underestimated and they have to be better integrated in the catastrophes modelling.On the other hand, governments have to protect themselves against the financial impact of natural catastrophes and new forms of cooperation between the public and private sectors can help countries finance disaster risks. Viewed in a country’s wider risk management context, the purchase of parametric insurance cover, which transfers natural catastrophe risk to the private sector using an index- based trigger, is a necessary shift towards a pre-emptive risk management strategy. This kind of approach can be pursued by central governments or at the level of provincial or municipal governments, and a number of case studies included in the publication “Closing the financial gap” by Swiss Re (2011 illustrates how new forms of parametric insurance can help countries finance disaster risks.

  19. Subglacial hydrothermal alteration minerals in Jökulhlaup deposits of Southern Iceland, with implications for detecting past or present habitable environments on Mars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, Nicholas H; Farmer, Jack D

    2010-06-01

    Jökulhlaups are terrestrial catastrophic outfloods, often triggered by subglacial volcanic eruptions. Similar volcano-ice interactions were likely important on Mars where magma/lava may have interacted with the planet's cryosphere to produce catastrophic floods. As a potential analogue to sediments deposited during martian floods, the Holocene sandurs of Iceland are dominated by basaltic clasts derived from the subglacial environment and deposited during jökulhlaups. Palagonite tuffs and breccias, present within the deposits, represent the primary alteration lithology. The surface abundance of palagonite on the sandurs is 1-20%. X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis of palagonite breccias confirms a mineral assemblage of zeolites, smectites, low-quartz, and kaolinite. Oriented powder X-ray diffractograms (habitable environments for microbial life may be found.

  20. Creating catastrophes in the classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Thommy

    2013-04-01

    Buildings, infrastructure and human life are being destroyed by wind and landslides. To interest and motivate pupils and to help them understand abstract knowledge, a practical experiment could be useful. These experiments will show why strong winds circulate around tropical cyclones and how fluvial geological processes affect nature and communities. The experiments are easy to set up and the equipment is not expensive. Experiment 1: Exogenic processes of water are often slow processes. This experiment will simulate water processes that can take thousands of years, in less than 40 minutes. This experiment can be presented for and understood by pupils at all levels. Letting the pupils build up the scenery will make them more curious about the course of events. During that time they will see the geomorphological genesis of landforms such as landslides, sandurs, deltas, canyons sedimentations, selective erosions. Placing small houses, bridges etc. we can lead to discussions about natural catastrophes and community planning. Material needed for the experiment is a water bucket, erosion gutter, clay (simulating rock), sand and smaller pebbles (simulating the soil), houses of "Monopoly" size and tubes. By using a table with wheels it is easy to reuse the result for other lessons. Installation of a pump can make the experiment into a closed loop system. This installation can be used for presentations outside the classroom. Experiment 2: The Coriolis Effect explains why the wind (moving objects) deflects when moving. In the northern hemisphere the deflection is clockwise and anti-clockwise in the southern hemisphere. This abstract effect is often hard for upper secondary pupils to understand. This experiment will show the effect and thus make the theory real and visible. Material needed for this experiment is a bucket, pipes, a string. At my school we had cooperation with pupils from the Industrial Technology programme who made a copper pipe construction. During the

  1. Non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in racing Thoroughbreds at the Hong Kong Jockey Club.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, T C; Riggs, C M; Cogger, N; Wright, J; Al-Alawneh, J I

    2018-04-19

    Reports of fractures in racehorses have predominantly focused on catastrophic injuries, and there is limited data identifying the location and incidence of fractures that did not result in a fatal outcome. To describe the nature and the incidence of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing at the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) over seven racing seasons. Retrospective cohort study. Data of fractures sustained in horses while racing and of race characteristics were extracted from the HKJC Veterinary Management Information System (VMIS) and Racing Information System (RIS) respectively. The fracture event was determined from the first clinical entry for each specific injury. The incidence rates of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures were calculated per 1000 racing starts for racetrack, age, racing season, sex and trainer. 179 first fracture events occurred in 64,807 racing starts. The incidence rate of non-catastrophic fractures was 2.2 per 1000 racing starts and of catastrophic fractures was 0.6 per 1000 racing starts. Fractures of the proximal sesamoid bones represented 55% of all catastrophic fractures while the most common non-catastrophic fractures involved the carpus and the first phalanx. Significant associations were detected between the incidence of non-catastrophic fractures and sex, trainer and racing season. The first fracture event was used to calculate the incidence rate in this study and may have resulted in underestimation of the true incidence rate of fractures in this population. However, given the low number of recorded fracture events compared to the size of the study population, this underestimation is likely to be small. There were 3.6 times as many non-catastrophic fractures as catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing in Hong Kong between 2004 and 2011. Non-catastrophic fractures interfere with race training schedules and may predispose to catastrophic fracture. Future analytical studies on non-catastrophic

  2. DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui, E-mail: zhangqh@mail.ustc.edu.cn [CAS Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment, Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)

    2016-07-10

    2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

  3. DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui

    2016-01-01

    2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

  4. Severe catastrophes and public reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osmachkin, Vitaly

    2002-01-01

    nuclear opposition. Economical basis of nuclear energy stagnation is in not very successful competition of nuclear engineering with fossil energy production technologies. Much money has been spent for improvement of safety of NPPs. Social roots of the opposition are linked with a bad experience of the public with demonstration of the nuclear energy- The explosion of atomic bombs, some contamination of the territories after nuclear arm tests, misfortunes with TMI-2 and Chernobyl have created a stable enmity and non-acceptance of the all connected with 'atom'. The mass media have strongly promoted the dissemination of the fear of radiation exposures. There is also an influence on that attitude the radiation protection regulation via the declaration of the linear no-threshold dependence of the radiation detriments and dose of exposure. Such concept ignores the adoptive features of all living. But modem studies have showed that protracted irradiation at the same dose is much less dangerous compared with sharp one. It could change public attitude to nuclear energy in the society. Role of nuclear communication for public informing: The reactions of public on various technological and man-made events differ significantly and are being determined not scales of catastrophes but the mental impression and a multiplication of psychological stresses in the society by mass -media. In present situation a nuclear community has to improve the contacts with the pubic, to launch more effective campaign for explanation of real adventures of nuclear power. It needs to compare the risks of climate warming and health detriments from different electricity production technologies and to show that nuclear power is a single alternative all fossil burning techniques of electricity production. It's the truth the nuclear power is a real method of fight for suppression of emission the greenhouse gases, isn't it? (author)

  5. Environmental catastrophes under time-inconsistent preference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michielsen, T.

    2013-02-15

    I analyze optimal natural resource use in an intergenerational model with the risk of a catastrophe. Each generation maximizes a weighted sum of discounted utility (positive) and the probability that a catastrophe will occur at any point in the future (negative). The model generates time inconsistency as generations disagree on the relative weights on utility and catastrophe prevention. As a consequence, future generations emit too much from the current generation's perspective and a dynamic game ensues. I consider a sequence of models. When the environmental problem is related to a scarce exhaustible resource, early generations have an incentive to reduce emissions in Markov equilibrium in order to enhance the ecosystem's resilience to future emissions. When the pollutant is expected to become obsolete in the near future, early generations may however increase their emissions if this reduces future emissions. When polluting inputs are abundant and expected to remain essential, the catastrophe becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and the degree of concern for catastrophe prevention has limited or even no effect on equilibrium behaviour.

  6. [Bioethics in catastrophe situations such as earthquakes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    León, C Francisco Javier

    2012-01-01

    A catastrophe of the magnitude of the earthquake and tsunami that hit Chile not long ago, forces us to raise some questions that we will try to answer from a philosophical, ethical and responsibility viewpoints. An analysis of the basic principles of bioethics is also justified. A natural catastrophe is not, by itself, moral or immoral, fair or unfair. However, its consequences could certainly be regarded as such, depending on whether they could have been prevented or mitigated. We will identify those individuals, who have the ethical responsibility to attend the victims and the ethical principles that must guide the tasks of healthcare and psychological support teams. The minimal indispensable actions to obtain an adequate social and legal protection of vulnerable people, must be defined according to international guidelines. These reflections are intended to improve the responsibility of the State and all the community, to efficiently prevent and repair the material and psychological consequences of such a catastrophe.

  7. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Go, Ellen J L; O'Neil, Kathleen M

    2017-09-01

    To review the difficult syndrome of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, emphasizing new developments in the diagnosis, pathogenesis and treatment. Few recent publications directly address pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS). Most articles are case reports or are data from adult and pediatric registries. The major factors contributing to most pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome include infection and the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies, but complement activation also is important in creating diffuse thrombosis in the microcirculation. Treatment of the acute emergency requires anticoagulation, suppression of the hyperinflammatory state and elimination of the triggering infection. Inhibition of complement activation appears to improve outcome in limited studies, and suppression of antiphospholipid antibody formation may be important in long-term management. CAPS, an antibody-mediated diffuse thrombotic disease of microvasculature, is rare in childhood but has high mortality (33-50%). It requires prompt recognition and aggressive multimodality treatment, including anticoagulation, anti-inflammatory therapy and elimination of inciting infection and pathogenic autoantibodies.

  8. Valuing Catastrophe Bonds Involving Credit Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophe bonds are the most important products in catastrophe risk securitization market. For the operating mechanism, CAT bonds may have a credit risk, so in this paper we consider the influence of the credit risk on CAT bonds pricing that is different from the other literature. We employ the Jarrow and Turnbull method to model the credit risks and get access to the general pricing formula using the Extreme Value Theory. Furthermore, we present an empirical pricing study of the Property Claim Services data, where the parameters in the loss function distribution are estimated by the MLE method and the default probabilities are deduced by the US financial market data. Then we get the catastrophe bonds value by the Monte Carlo method.

  9. Orthogonality catastrophe and fractional exclusion statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ares, Filiberto; Gupta, Kumar S.; de Queiroz, Amilcar R.

    2018-02-01

    We show that the N -particle Sutherland model with inverse-square and harmonic interactions exhibits orthogonality catastrophe. For a fixed value of the harmonic coupling, the overlap of the N -body ground state wave functions with two different values of the inverse-square interaction term goes to zero in the thermodynamic limit. When the two values of the inverse-square coupling differ by an infinitesimal amount, the wave function overlap shows an exponential suppression. This is qualitatively different from the usual power law suppression observed in the Anderson's orthogonality catastrophe. We also obtain an analytic expression for the wave function overlaps for an arbitrary set of couplings, whose properties are analyzed numerically. The quasiparticles constituting the ground state wave functions of the Sutherland model are known to obey fractional exclusion statistics. Our analysis indicates that the orthogonality catastrophe may be valid in systems with more general kinds of statistics than just the fermionic type.

  10. Timber price dynamics following a natural catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2000-01-01

    Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20 percent of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the...

  11. Catastrophizing and Causal Beliefs in Whiplash

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buitenhuis, J.; de Jong, P. J.; Jaspers, J. P. C.; Groothoff, J. W.

    2008-01-01

    Study Design. Prospective cohort study. Objective. This study investigates the role of pain catastrophizing and causal beliefs with regard to severity and persistence of neck complaints after motor vehicle accidents. Summary of Background Data. In previous research on low back pain, somatoform

  12. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in leprosy | Chewoolkar ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is an acute and life threatening variant of antiphospholipid syndrome with a high mortality rate. Many infections are known to be accompanied by the thrombotic manifestations of this syndrome. We came across a patient of leprosy who developed bowel ischaemia secondary to ...

  13. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: task force report summary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervera, R; Rodríguez-Pintó, I

    2014-10-01

    The Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (CAPS) aimed to assess the current knowledge on pathogenesis, clinical and laboratory features, diagnosis and classification, precipitating factors and treatment of CAPS. This article summarizes the main aspects of its final report. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  14. Catastrophic risk : Social influences on insurance decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krawczyk, Michal; Trautmann, Stefan; van de Kuilen, Gijs

    We study behavioral patterns of insurance demand for low-probability large-loss events (catastrophic losses). Individual patterns of belief formation and risk attitude that were suggested in the behavioral decisions literature emerge robustly in the current set of insurance choices. However, social

  15. Robust catastrophe-free space agriculture on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, Masamichi

    During the early stage of CELSS research, economy was a selling point of the bio-regenerative life support concept. Until system integration was exercised in detail at mission planing for the International Space Station, the turning point from open system to CELSS was estimated 10 years of operation for 10 crew member as a consensus. Initial investment and operational cost for the 10-10 regenerative system was believed to be cheaper than the integrated amount of consumables for running open system. Any drop-out from recycling loop of materials is counted as “penalty”. Under this context, degree of closure was raised as an index to measure “maturity” of CELSS technology. Once it was found quite difficult to achieve 100 % closure perfect, science merit of CELSS study was redefined as a small scaled model of terrestrial biosphere. Natural ecosystem has huge sink and backyard in its materials loop. They provide a basis for keeping member in the ecology without falling into catastrophe. Low productivity at high biological diversity is a common key feature at the climax phase of ecosystem. Artificial ecosystem on ground relies on “unpaid” backyard function of surrounding biosphere together with strong control for realizing high productivity at less degree of bio-diversity. It should be noted that top criteria in engineering manned space system is robustness and survivability of crew. All other item is secondary, and just better to have. Without verification of catastrophe free, space agriculture will never be implemented for space and stay as a fantasy on ground forever. There is a great gap between ecology and this requirement for manned space system. In order to fill this gap, we should remind how gatherer and hunter was civilized after the agricultural revolution about ten thousand years ago. Planting cereal crop was a great second step in agricultural innovation. Cereal grain can be stored more than one year after its harvest. Food processing and

  16. Catastrophic risks and insurance in farm-level decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.

    2008-01-01

    Keywords: risk perception, risk attitude, catastrophic risk, insurance, farm characteristics, farmer personal characteristics, utility-efficient programming, arable farming, dairy farming

    Catastrophic risks can cause severe cash flow problems for farmers or even result into their

  17. Axial and focal-plane diffraction catastrophe integrals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berry, M V; Howls, C J

    2010-01-01

    Exact expressions in terms of Bessel functions are found for some of the diffraction catastrophe integrals that decorate caustics in optics and mechanics. These are the axial and focal-plane sections of the elliptic and hyperbolic umbilic diffraction catastrophes, and symmetric elliptic and hyperbolic unfoldings of the X 9 diffraction catastrophes. These representations reveal unexpected relations between the integrals.

  18. Nonlinear physics: Catastrophe, chaos and complexity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arecchi, F.T.

    1992-01-01

    Currently in the world of physics, there is open debate on the role of the three C's - catastrophe, chaos and complexity. Seen as new ideas or paradigms, incapable of being harmonized within the realm of traditional physics, these terms seem to be creating turmoil in the classical physics establishment whose foundations date back to the early seventeenth century. This paper first defines catastrophe, chaos and complexity and shows how these terms are all connected to nonlinear dynamics and how they have long since been present within scientific treatises. It also evidences the relationship of the three C's with the concept of organization, inappropriately called self-organization, and with recognition and decisional strategies of cognitive systems. Relevant to natural science, the development of these considerations is necessitating the re-examination of the role and capabilities of human knowledge and a return to inter-disciplinary scientific-philosophical debate

  19. Diagnosis and management of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmi, Or; Berla, Maya; Shoenfeld, Yehuda; Levy, Yair

    2017-04-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a rare, life-threatening disease. In 1992, Asherson defined it as a widespread coagulopathy related to the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL). CAPS requires rapid diagnosis and prompt initiation of treatment. Areas covered: This paper discusses all aspects of CAPS, including its pathophysiology, clinical manifestations, diagnostic approaches, differential diagnoses, management and treatment of relapsing CAPS, and its prognosis. To obtain the information used in this review, scientific databases were searched using the key words antiphospholipid antibodies, catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, hemolytic anemia, lupus anticoagulant, and thrombotic microangiopathic hemolytic anemia. Expert commentary: CAPS is a rare variant of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS). It is characterized by thrombosis in multiple organs and a cytokine storm developing over a short period, with histopathologic evidence of multiple microthromboses, and laboratory confirmation of high aPL titers. This review discusses the diagnostic challenges and current approaches to the treatment of CAPS.

  20. Tackling The Global Challenge: Humanitarian Catastrophes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth V. Iserson

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available “Humanitarian catastrophes,” conflicts and calamities generating both widespread human suffering and destructive events, require a wide range of emergency resources. This paper answers a number of questions that humanitarian catastrophes generate: Why and how do the most-developed countries—those with the resources, capabilities, and willingness to help—intervene in specific types of disasters? What ethical and legal guidelines shape our interventions? How well do we achieve our goals? It then suggests a number of changes to improve humanitarian responses, including better NGO-government cooperation, increased research on the best disaster response methods, clarification of the criteria and roles for humanitarian (military interventions, and development of post-2015 Millennium Development Goals with more accurate progress measures. [West J Emerg Med. 2014;15(2:231–240.

  1. Intestinal malrotation and catastrophic volvulus in infancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Henry Chong; Pickard, Sarah S; Sridhar, Sunita; Dutta, Sanjeev

    2012-07-01

    Intestinal malrotation in the newborn is usually diagnosed after signs of intestinal obstruction, such as bilious emesis, and corrected with the Ladd procedure. The objective of this report is to describe the presentation of severe cases of midgut volvulus presenting in infancy, and to discuss the characteristics of these cases. We performed a 7-year review at our institution and present two cases of catastrophic midgut volvulus presenting in the post-neonatal period, ending in death soon after the onset of symptoms. These two patients also had significant laboratory abnormalities compared to patients with more typical presentations resulting in favorable outcomes. Although most cases of intestinal malrotation in infancy can be treated successfully, in some circumstances, patients' symptoms may not be detected early enough for effective treatment, and therefore may result in catastrophic midgut volvulus and death. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. A critical look at catastrophe risk assessments

    CERN Document Server

    Kent, A

    2004-01-01

    Recent papers by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish bounds on the risk of a catastrophe in forthcoming collider experiments. The safety case set out by BJSW does not rely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling. However, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) have suggested that the astrophysical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expected cost. For example, DDH's main bound, $p_{\\rm catastrophe} < 2 \\times 10^{-8}$, implies only that the expectation value of the number of deaths is bounded by 120. We thus reappraise the DDH and BJSW risk bounds by comparing risk policy in other areas. We find that requiring a catastrophe risk of no higher than 10^{-15} is necessary to be consistent with established policy for risk optimisation from radiation hazards, even if highly risk tolerant assumptions are made. A respec...

  3. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and pregnancy. Clinical report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khizroeva, J; Bitsadze, V; Makatsariya, A

    2018-01-08

    We have observed the development of a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) in a pregnant woman hospitalized at 28 weeks of gestation with a severe preeclampsia. On the same day, an eclampsia attack developed, and an emergency surgical delivery was performed. On the third day, multiorgan failure developed. Examination showed a persistent circulation of lupus anticoagulant, high level of antibodies to cardiolipin, b2-glycoprotein I, and prothrombin. The usual diagnosis of the severe preeclampsia masked a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, exacerbated by the coincident presence of several types of antiphospholipid antibodies. The first pregnancy resulted in a premature birth at 25 weeks, possibly also due to the circulation of antiphospholipid antibodies. The trigger of the catastrophic form development was the pregnancy itself, surgical intervention, and hyperhomocysteinemia. CAPS is the most severe form of antiphospholipid syndrome, manifested in multiple microthrombosis of microcirculation of vital organs and in the development of multiorgan failure against the background of the high level of antiphospholipid antibodies. CAPS is characterized by renal, cerebral, gastrointestinal, adrenal, ovarian, skin, and other forms of microthrombosis. Thrombosis recurrence is typical. Thrombotic microvasculopathy lies at the heart of multiorgan failure and manifests clinically in central nervous system lesions, adrenal insufficiency, and ARDS development. CAPS is a life-threatening condition, therefore, requires an urgent treatment. Optimal treatment of CAPS is not developed. CAPS represent a general medical multidisciplinary problem.

  4. Catastrophe theory and its application status in mechanical engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinge LIU

    Full Text Available Catastrophe theory is a kind of mathematical method which aims to apply and interpret the discontinuous phenomenon. Since its emergence, it has been widely used to explain a variety of emergent phenomena in the fields of natural science, social science, management science and some other science and technology fields. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory of catastrophe in several aspects, such as its generation, radical principle, basic characteristics and development. Secondly, it summarizes the main applications of catastrophe theory in the field of mechanical engineering, focusing on the research progress of catastrophe theory in revealing catastrophe of rotor vibration state, analyzing friction and wear failure, predicting metal fracture, and so on. Finally, it advises that later development of catastrophe theory should pay more attention to the combination of itself with other traditional nonlinear theories and methods. This paper provides a beneficial reference to guide the application of catastrophe theory in mechanical engineering and related fields for later research.

  5. Characterizing Terrestrial Exoplanets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meadows, V. S.; Lustig-Yaeger, J.; Lincowski, A.; Arney, G. N.; Robinson, T. D.; Schwieterman, E. W.; Deming, L. D.; Tovar, G.

    2017-11-01

    We will provide an overview of the measurements, techniques, and upcoming missions required to characterize terrestrial planet environments and evolution, and search for signs of habitability and life.

  6. V. Terrestrial vertebrates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean Pearson; Deborah Finch

    2011-01-01

    Within the Interior West, terrestrial vertebrates do not represent a large number of invasive species relative to invasive weeds, aquatic vertebrates, and invertebrates. However, several invasive terrestrial vertebrate species do cause substantial economic and ecological damage in the U.S. and in this region (Pimental 2000, 2007; Bergman and others 2002; Finch and...

  7. A unified approach of catastrophic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Nikolopoulos

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Although there is an accumulated charge of theoretical, computational, and numerical work, like catastrophe theory, bifurcation theory, stochastic and deterministic chaos theory, there is an important feeling that these matters do not completely cover the physics of real catastrophic events. Recent studies have suggested that a large variety of complex processes, including earthquakes, heartbeats, and neuronal dynamics, exhibits statistical similarities. Here we are studying in terms of complexity and non linear techniques whether isomorphic signatures emerged indicating the transition from the normal state to the both geological and biological shocks. In the last 15 years, the study of Complex Systems has emerged as a recognized field in its own right, although a good definition of what a complex system is, actually is eluded. A basic reason for our interest in complexity is the striking similarity in behaviour close to irreversible phase transitions among systems that are otherwise quite different in nature. It is by now recognized that the pre-seismic electromagnetic time-series contain valuable information about the earthquake preparation process, which cannot be extracted without the use of important computational power, probably in connection with computer Algebra techniques. This paper presents an analysis, the aim of which is to indicate the approach of the global instability in the pre-focal area. Non-linear characteristics are studied by applying two techniques, namely the Correlation Dimension Estimation and the Approximate Entropy. These two non-linear techniques present coherent conclusions, and could cooperate with an independent fractal spectral analysis to provide a detection concerning the emergence of the nucleation phase of the impending catastrophic event. In the context of similar mathematical background, it would be interesting to augment this description of pre-seismic electromagnetic anomalies in order to cover biological

  8. Timber Price Dynamics Following a Natural Catastrophe

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2000-01-01

    Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20% of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the short- and long-run effects of the hurricane on the prices of timber stocks, we estimated an intervention model of the residuals of cointegration of South Carolina sawtimber and pulpwood ...

  9. Astrophysics: is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

    2005-12-08

    The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

  10. Astrophysics: Is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

    2005-12-01

    The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

  11. Accelerated stress testing of terrestrial solar cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lathrop, J. W.; Hawkins, D. C.; Prince, J. L.; Walker, H. A.

    1982-01-01

    The development of an accelerated test schedule for terrestrial solar cells is described. This schedule, based on anticipated failure modes deduced from a consideration of IC failure mechanisms, involves bias-temperature testing, humidity testing (including both 85-85 and pressure cooker stress), and thermal-cycle thermal-shock testing. Results are described for 12 different unencapsulated cell types. Both gradual electrical degradation and sudden catastrophic mechanical change were observed. These effects can be used to discriminate between cell types and technologies relative to their reliability attributes. Consideration is given to identifying laboratory failure modes which might lead to severe degradation in the field through second quadrant operation. Test results indicate that the ability of most cell types to withstand accelerated stress testing depends more on the manufacturer's design, processing, and worksmanship than on the particular metallization system. Preliminary tests comparing accelerated test results on encapsulated and unencapsulated cells are described.

  12. Multiple Sclerosis and Catastrophic Health Expenditure in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juyani, Yaser; Hamedi, Dorsa; Hosseini Jebeli, Seyede Sedighe; Qasham, Maryam

    2016-09-01

    There are many disabling medical conditions which can result in catastrophic health expenditure. Multiple Sclerosis is one of the most costly medical conditions through the world which encounter families to the catastrophic health expenditures. This study aims to investigate on what extent Multiple sclerosis patients face catastrophic costs. This study was carried out in Ahvaz, Iran (2014). The study population included households that at least one of their members suffers from MS. To analyze data, Logit regression model was employed by using the default software STATA12. 3.37% of families were encountered with catastrophic costs. Important variables including brand of drug, housing, income and health insurance were significantly correlated with catastrophic expenditure. This study suggests that although a small proportion of MS patients met the catastrophic health expenditure, mechanisms that pool risk and cost (e.g. health insurance) are required to protect them and improve financial and access equity in health care.

  13. Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brummitt, Charles D; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J

    2014-01-01

    We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

  14. Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles D Brummitt

    Full Text Available We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe, causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

  15. Death, Catastrophe, and the Significance of Tragedy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Ballengee

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This NANO note will examine the tension between representation, memorial, and the catastrophe of death that emerges in the space of tragedy, as the problem arises in two quite different works: Oedipus at Colonus, a fairly typical fifth-century Greek tragedy, and Falling Man, Don DeLillo’s novel that, in its attempt to address the events of 9/11, reflects in form and subject matter many of Aristotle’s terms of tragic representation. It is not the intent of this note to engage with the recent proliferation of work in “performance theory.” Rather than being concerned with an imagined exchange between audience and actor, this study examines how the supplementary relationship of gesture and speech in tragedy disrupts the public/private distinction, and how this articulation effects and enables the public memorialization of death. Thus, this paper will consider the representation of death as an event whose catastrophic, and somewhat mysterious, collision of the public and the private lends it its tragic significance.

  16. Modeling workplace bullying using catastrophe theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escartin, J; Ceja, L; Navarro, J; Zapf, D

    2013-10-01

    Workplace bullying is defined as negative behaviors directed at organizational members or their work context that occur regularly and repeatedly over a period of time. Employees' perceptions of psychosocial safety climate, workplace bullying victimization, and workplace bullying perpetration were assessed within a sample of nearly 5,000 workers. Linear and nonlinear approaches were applied in order to model both continuous and sudden changes in workplace bullying. More specifically, the present study examines whether a nonlinear dynamical systems model (i.e., a cusp catastrophe model) is superior to the linear combination of variables for predicting the effect of psychosocial safety climate and workplace bullying victimization on workplace bullying perpetration. According to the AICc, and BIC indices, the linear regression model fits the data better than the cusp catastrophe model. The study concludes that some phenomena, especially unhealthy behaviors at work (like workplace bullying), may be better studied using linear approaches as opposed to nonlinear dynamical systems models. This can be explained through the healthy variability hypothesis, which argues that positive organizational behavior is likely to present nonlinear behavior, while a decrease in such variability may indicate the occurrence of negative behaviors at work.

  17. Indirect Catastrophic Injuries in Olympic Styles of Wrestling in Iran

    OpenAIRE

    Kordi, Ramin; Ziaee, Vahid; Rostami, Mohsen; Wallace, W. Angus

    2011-01-01

    Background: Data on indirect catastrophic injuries in wrestling are scarce. Objectives: To develop a profile of indirect catastrophic injuries in international styles of wrestling and to describe possible risk factors. Study Design: Retrospective case series; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: Indirect catastrophic injuries that occurred in wrestling clubs in Iran from July 1998 to June 2005 were identified by contacting several sources. The cases were retrospectively reviewed. Results: The injur...

  18. Coronal Flux Rope Catastrophe Associated With Internal Energy Release

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Bin; Hu, Youqiu; Wang, Yuming; Zhang, Quanhao; Liu, Rui; Gou, Tingyu; Shen, Chenglong

    2018-04-01

    Magnetic energy during the catastrophe was predominantly studied by the previous catastrophe works since it is believed to be the main energy supplier for the solar eruptions. However, the contribution of other types of energies during the catastrophe cannot be neglected. This paper studies the catastrophe of the coronal flux rope system in the solar wind background, with emphasis on the transformation of different types of energies during the catastrophe. The coronal flux rope is characterized by its axial and poloidal magnetic fluxes and total mass. It is shown that a catastrophe can be triggered by not only an increase but also a decrease of the axial magnetic flux. Moreover, the internal energy of the rope is found to be released during the catastrophe so as to provide energy for the upward eruption of the flux rope. As far as the magnetic energy is concerned, it provides only part of the energy release, or even increases during the catastrophe, so the internal energy may act as the dominant or even the unique energy supplier during the catastrophe.

  19. Madame Bovary and Catastrophism: Revolving narratives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Morris

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Cet article relie Madame Bovary au contexte scientifique français des années 1850, en lisant le roman de Flaubert à la lumière des théories de Cuvier. Le savant français Georges Cuvier, avec nombre de ses contemporains, explique les origines du monde à l’aide de la théorie des catastrophes. D’après cette théorie, le monde est divisé en périodes très courtes ponctuées de grandes catastrophes ou, en termes cuviériens, de « révolutions » qui ont éradiqué toute vie et ont permis au monde d’être entièrement repeuplé. Une telle conception affecte l’idée même du « temps ». Cuvier pense que la formation de la Terre est relativement récente, l’époque présente n’étant vieille que de cinq mille ans. Cette compression temporelle peut être rapportée à Madame Bovary dont le « tempo » s’accroît au fur et à mesure qu’on se rapproche du dénouement. Dans la théorie des catastrophes comme dans le roman, le temps ne suit pas une ligne chronologique. Les « révolutions » viennent briser le fil continu du temps et Emma est souvent incapable de distinguer entre le passé, le présent et le futur. Les « révolutions » servent aussi à ponctuer et à perturber le cours de la vie sur Terre en produisant des événements majeurs dans l’histoire du globe. Il en est de même dans la vie d’Emma. Son existence est marquée par des événements majeurs, comme le bal, qui créent un éclatement et une fragmentation de la temporalité, comme dans la théorie de Cuvier. Je défendrai aussi l’idée d’un lien entre la soudaineté et la violence des « révolutions » et les crises nerveuses d’Emma, qui surviennent brusquement et relèvent de l’hystérie. La conception cuviérienne de la temporalité doit enfin être envisagée au regard des théories de l’évolution, ce qui implique de réévaluer les notions d’adaptation, d’hérédité et de mort dans le roman de Flaubert.This paper locates Madame

  20. Introduced Terrestrial Species (Future)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — These data represent predicted future potential distributions of terrestrial plants, animals, and pathogens non-native to the Middle-Atlantic region. These data are...

  1. Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Davis-Reddy, Claire

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Ecoregions Terrestrial Biomes Protected Areas Climate Risk and Vulnerability: A Handbook for Southern Africa | 75 7.2. Non-climatic drivers of ecosystem change 7.2.1. Land-use change, habitat loss and fragmentation Land-use change and landscape... concentrations of endemic plant and animal species, but these mainly occur in areas that are most threatened by human activity. Diverse terrestrial ecosystems in the region include tropical and sub-tropical forests, deserts, savannas, grasslands, mangroves...

  2. Oxidized zirconium on ceramic; Catastrophic coupling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozden, V E; Saglam, N; Dikmen, G; Tozun, I R

    2017-02-01

    Oxidized zirconium (Oxinium™; Smith & Nephew, Memphis, TN, USA) articulated with polyethylene in total hip arthroplasty (THA) appeared to have the potential to reduce wear dramatically. The thermally oxidized metal zirconium surface is transformed into ceramic-like hard surface that is resistant to abrasion. The exposure of soft zirconium metal under hard coverage surface after the damage of oxidized zirconium femoral head has been described. It occurred following joint dislocation or in situ succeeding disengagement of polyethylene liner. We reported three cases of misuse of Oxinium™ (Smith & Nephew, Memphis, TN, USA) heads. These three cases resulted in catastrophic in situ wear and inevitable failure although there was no advice, indication or recommendation for this use from the manufacturer. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  3. Metal Dusting: Catastrophic Corrosion by Carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, David J.; Zhang, Jianqiang

    2012-12-01

    Reducing gases rich in carbon-bearing species such as CO can be supersaturated with respect to graphite at intermediate temperatures of about 400-700°C. Engineering alloys such as low-alloy and stainless steels, and heat-resisting iron-, nickel-, and cobalt-base alloys catalyze gas processes that release the carbon. An understanding of how the resulting carbon deposition can destroy alloys at a catastrophically rapid rate has been the objective of a great deal of research. The current review of recent work on metal dusting covers the mass transfer—principally carbon diffusion—and graphite nucleation processes involved. A clear distinction emerges between ferritic alloys, which form cementite and precipitate graphite within that carbide, and austenitics that nucleate graphite directly within the metal. The latter process is facilitated by the strong orientation relationship between the graphite and face-centered cubic (fcc) lattices. Strategies for the control of dusting are briefly outlined.

  4. Application of catastrophe theory to nuclear structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scharff-Goldhaber, G.; Dresden, M.

    1979-01-01

    Three two-parameter models, one describing an A-body system (the atomic nucleus) and two describing many-body systems (the van der Waals gas and the ferroelectric (perovskite) system) are compared within the framework of catastrophe theory. It is shown that each has a critical point (second-order phase transition) when the two counteracting forces controlling it are in balance; further, each undergoes a first-order phase transition when one of the forces vanishes (the deforming force for the nucleus, the attractive force for the van der Waals gas, and the dielectric constant for the perovskite). Finally, when both parameters are kept constant, a kind of phase transition may occur at a critical angular momentum, critical pressure, and critical electric field. 3 figures, 1 table

  5. Determinants of catastrophic health expenditure in iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abolhallaje, M; Hasani, Sa; Bastani, P; Ramezanian, M; Kazemian, M

    2013-01-01

    This study will provide detailed specification of those variables and determinants of unpredictable health expenditure in Iran, and the requirements to reduce extensive effects of the factors affecting households' payments for health and other goods and services inappropriately. This study aims to identify measures of fair financing of health services and determinants of fair financing contribution, regarding the required share of households that prevents their catastrophic payments. In this regard, analysis of shares of households' expenditures on main groups of goods and services in urban and rural areas and in groups of deciles in the statistics from households' expenditure surveys was applied. The growth of spending in nominal values within the years 2002-2008 was considerably high and the rate for out-of-pocket payments is nearly the same or greater than the rate for total health expenditure. In 2008, urban and rural households in average pay 6.4% and 6.35% of their total expenditure on health services. Finally three categories of determinants of unfair and catastrophic payments by households were recognized in terms of households' socio-economic status, equality/inequality conditions of the distribution of risk of financing, and economic aspects of health expenditure distribution. While extending the total share of government and prepayment sources of financing health services are considered as the simplest policy for limiting out-of-pocket payments, indicators and policies introduced in this study could also be considered important and useful for the development of health sector and easing access to health services, irrespective of health financing fairness.

  6. Grasshopper Population Ecology: Catastrophe, Criticality, and Critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dale R. Lockwood

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Grasshopper population dynamics are an important part of the North American rangeland ecosystem and an important factor in the economies that derive from the rangeland. Outbreak dynamics have plagued management strategies in the rangeland, and attempts to find simple, linear and mechanistic solutions to both understanding and predicting the dynamics have proved fruitless. These efforts to ground theory in a correspondence with the "real" world, including whether the population dynamics are ultimately density dependent or density independent, have generated abundant heat but little light. We suggest that a pragmatic approach, in which theories are taken to be "tools" rather than competing claims of truth, has greater promise to move ecological research in a constructive direction. Two recent non-linear approaches exploiting the tools of complexity science provide insights relevant to explaining and forecasting population dynamics. Observation and data collection were used to structure models derived from catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality. These models indicate that nonlinear processes are important in the dynamics of the outbreaks. And the conceptual structures of these approaches provide clear, albeit constrained or contingent, implications for pest managers. We show that, although these two frameworks, catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality, are very different, the frequency distributions of time series from both systems result in power law relationships. Further, we show that a simple lattice-based model, similar to SOC but structured on the biology of the grasshoppers gives a spatial time series similar to data over a 50-year span and the frequency distribution is also a power law relationship. This demonstration exemplifies how a "both-and" rather than an "either-or" approach to ecological modeling, in which the useful elements of particular theories or conceptual structures are extracted, may provide a way forward

  7. Purchase of Catastrophe Insurance by Dutch Dairy and Arable Farmers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2009-01-01

    This article analyzed the impact of risk perception, risk attitude, and other farmer personal and farm characteristics on the actual purchase of catastrophe insurance by Dutch dairy and arable farmers. The specific catastrophe insurance types considered were hail–fire–storm insurance for buildings,

  8. 'Performative narrativity': Palestinian identity and the performance of catastrophe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saloul, I.

    2008-01-01

    The day Israel annually celebrates as its "Day of Independence" Palestinians commemorate as their day of catastrophe (al-nakba). To most Palestinians, the catastrophic loss of Palestine in 1948 represents the climactic formative event of their lives. In the aftermath of this loss, the Palestinian

  9. Catastrophe, Gender and Urban Experience, 1648–1920

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Employing a broad definition of catastrophe, this book examines how urban communities conceived, adapted to and were transformed by catastrophes. Competing views of gender figure in the telling and retelling of these trag- edies, which are mediated by myth and memory. This is a nuanced account...

  10. Manipulation of pain catastrophizing: An experimental study of healthy participants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel E Bialosky

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Joel E Bialosky1*, Adam T Hirsh2,3, Michael E Robinson2,3, Steven Z George1,3*1Department of Physical Therapy; 2Department of Clinical and Health Psychology; 3Center for Pain Research and Behavioral Health, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USAAbstract: Pain catastrophizing is associated with the pain experience; however, causation has not been established. Studies which specifically manipulate catastrophizing are necessary to establish causation. The present study enrolled 100 healthy individuals. Participants were randomly assigned to repeat a positive, neutral, or one of three catastrophizing statements during a cold pressor task (CPT. Outcome measures of pain tolerance and pain intensity were recorded. No change was noted in catastrophizing immediately following the CPT (F(1,84 = 0.10, p = 0.75, partial η2 < 0.01 independent of group assignment (F(4,84 = 0.78, p = 0.54, partial η2 = 0.04. Pain tolerance (F(4 = 0.67, p = 0.62, partial η2 = 0.03 and pain intensity (F(4 = 0.73, p = 0.58, partial η2 = 0.03 did not differ by group. This study suggests catastrophizing may be difficult to manipulate through experimental pain procedures and repetition of specific catastrophizing statements was not sufficient to change levels of catastrophizing. Additionally, pain tolerance and pain intensity did not differ by group assignment. This study has implications for future studies attempting to experimentally manipulate pain catastrophizing.Keywords: pain, catastrophizing, experimental, cold pressor task, pain catastrophizing scale

  11. Terrestrial Analogs to Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farr, T. G.; Arcone, S.; Arvidson, R. W.; Baker, V.; Barlow, N. G.; Beaty, D.; Bell, M. S.; Blankenship, D. D.; Bridges, N.; Briggs, G.; Bulmer, M.; Carsey, F.; Clifford, S. M.; Craddock, R. A.; Dickerson, P. W.; Duxbury, N.; Galford, G. L.; Garvin, J.; Grant, J.; Green, J. R.; Gregg, T. K. P.; Guinness, E.; Hansen, V. L.; Hecht, M. H.; Holt, J.; Howard, A.; Keszthelyi, L. P.; Lee, P.; Lanagan, P. D.; Lentz, R. C. F.; Leverington, D. W.; Marinangeli, L.; Moersch, J. E.; Morris-Smith, P. A.; Mouginis-Mark, P.; Olhoeft, G. R.; Ori, G. G.; Paillou, P.; Reilly, J. F., II; Rice, J. W., Jr.; Robinson, C. A.; Sheridan, M.; Snook, K.; Thomson, B. J.; Watson, K.; Williams, K.; Yoshikawa, K.

    2002-08-01

    It is well recognized that interpretations of Mars must begin with the Earth as a reference. The most successful comparisons have focused on understanding geologic processes on the Earth well enough to extrapolate to Mars' environment. Several facets of terrestrial analog studies have been pursued and are continuing. These studies include field workshops, characterization of terrestrial analog sites, instrument tests, laboratory measurements (including analysis of Martian meteorites), and computer and laboratory modeling. The combination of all these activities allows scientists to constrain the processes operating in specific terrestrial environments and extrapolate how similar processes could affect Mars. The Terrestrial Analogs for Mars Community Panel has considered the following two key questions: (1) How do terrestrial analog studies tie in to the Mars Exploration Payload Assessment Group science questions about life, past climate, and geologic evolution of Mars, and (2) How can future instrumentation be used to address these questions. The panel has considered the issues of data collection, value of field workshops, data archiving, laboratory measurements and modeling, human exploration issues, association with other areas of solar system exploration, and education and public outreach activities.

  12. Applications of modelling historical catastrophic events with implications for catastrophe risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorby, A.; Grossi, P.; Pomonis, A.; Williams, C.; Nyst, M.; Onur, T.; Seneviratna, P.; Baca, A.

    2009-04-01

    The management of catastrophe risk is concerned with the quantification of financial losses, and their associated probabilities, for potential future catastrophes that might impact a region. Modelling of historical catastrophe events and, in particular, the potential consequences if a similar event were to occur at the present day can provide insight to help bridge the gap between what we know can happen from historical experience and what potential losses might be out there in the "universe" of potential catastrophes. The 1908 Messina Earthquake (and accompanying local tsunami) was one of the most destructive earthquakes to have occurred in Europe and by most accounts remains Europe's most fatal with over 70,000 casualties estimated. However, what would the potential consequences be, in terms of financial and human losses, if a similar earthquake were to occur at the present day? Exposures, building stock and populations can change over time and, therefore, the consequences of a similar earthquake at the present day may sensibly differ from those observed in 1908. The city of Messina has been reconstructed several times in its history, including following the 1908 earthquake and again following the Second World War. The 1908 earthquake prompted the introduction of the first seismic design regulations in Italy and since 1909 parts of the Messina and Calabria regions have been in the zones of highest seismic coefficient. Utilizing commercial catastrophe loss modelling technology - which combines the modelling of hazard, vulnerability, and financial losses on a database of property exposures - a modelled earthquake scenario of M7.2 in the Messina Straits region of Southern Italy is considered. This modelled earthquake is used to assess the potential consequences in terms of financial losses that an earthquake similar to the 1908 earthquake might have if it were to occur at the present day. Loss results are discussed in the context of applications for the financial

  13. The impact of climate change on catastrophe risk models : implications for catastrophe risk markets in developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Seo, John; Mahul, Olivier

    2009-01-01

    Catastrophe risk models allow insurers, reinsurers and governments to assess the risk of loss from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes. These models rely on computer technology and the latest earth and meteorological science information to generate thousands if not millions of simulated events. Recently observed hurricane activity, particularly in the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, i...

  14. Terrestrial and extraterrestrial fullerenes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heymann, D.; Jenneskens, L.W.; Jehlicka, J; Koper, C.; Vlietstra, E. [Rice Univ, Houston, TX (United States). Dept. of Earth Science

    2003-07-01

    This paper reviews reports of occurrences of fullerenes in circumstellar media, interstellar media, meteorites, interplanetary dust particles (IDPs), lunar rocks, hard terrestrial rocks from Shunga (Russia), Sudbury (Canada) and Mitov (Czech Republic), coal, terrestrial sediments from the Cretaceous-Tertiary-Boundary and Pennian-Triassic-Boundary, fulgurite, ink sticks, dinosaur eggs, and a tree char. The occurrences are discussed in the context of known and postulated processes of fullerene formation, including the suggestion that some natural fullerenes might have formed from biological (algal) remains.

  15. Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jindrová Pavla

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

  16. Geochemical and sedimentological signature of catastrophic saltwater inundations (tsunami), New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chague-Goff, C.; Goff, J.R.

    1999-01-01

    Three tidal marshes in Able Tasman National Par, New Zealand, were studied using geochemical, sedimentological and radiometric dating techniques. Charcoal and plant material samples were taken from one core in each inlet for 14 C analysis. radiocarbon ages were converted to dendrocalibrated years . All samples produced a terrestrial 13 C signal. Near surface samples were date d by measuring 137 Cs. A 1700 year record of catastrophic saltwater inundations (CSI) events (Tsunami) was produced. Up to four such events were identified, with ruptures of one or more of the Wellington, Wairarapa and Alpine Faults being the most likely tsunamigenic source. CSI signatures include: peaks in Fe and/or S, a peak in fines and contemporaneous or delayed peaks in organic content and/or loss on ignition (LOI). Geochemical data in association with grain size analyses proved to be a valuable tool in the interpretation of these events

  17. Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Motoh, Tsujimura [Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University, Yoshida-honmochi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501 (Japan)

    2004-05-01

    We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource.

  18. Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Motoh, Tsujimura

    2004-01-01

    We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource

  19. Terrestrial planet formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Righter, K; O'Brien, D P

    2011-11-29

    Advances in our understanding of terrestrial planet formation have come from a multidisciplinary approach. Studies of the ages and compositions of primitive meteorites with compositions similar to the Sun have helped to constrain the nature of the building blocks of planets. This information helps to guide numerical models for the three stages of planet formation from dust to planetesimals (~10(6) y), followed by planetesimals to embryos (lunar to Mars-sized objects; few 10(6) y), and finally embryos to planets (10(7)-10(8) y). Defining the role of turbulence in the early nebula is a key to understanding the growth of solids larger than meter size. The initiation of runaway growth of embryos from planetesimals ultimately leads to the growth of large terrestrial planets via large impacts. Dynamical models can produce inner Solar System configurations that closely resemble our Solar System, especially when the orbital effects of large planets (Jupiter and Saturn) and damping mechanisms, such as gas drag, are included. Experimental studies of terrestrial planet interiors provide additional constraints on the conditions of differentiation and, therefore, origin. A more complete understanding of terrestrial planet formation might be possible via a combination of chemical and physical modeling, as well as obtaining samples and new geophysical data from other planets (Venus, Mars, or Mercury) and asteroids.

  20. Radionuclides in terrestrial ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bocock, K.L.

    1981-01-01

    This report summarizes information on the distribution and movement of radionuclides in semi-natural terrestrial ecosystems in north-west England with particular emphasis on inputs to, and outputs from ecosystems; on plant and soil aspects; and on radionuclides in fallout and in discharges by the nuclear industry. (author)

  1. Socio-economic consequences of Chernobyl catastrophe. Social protection of the citizens, affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kholosha, V.; Kovalchuk, V.

    2003-01-01

    The accident on Chernobyl NPP has affected the destiny of 35 million people in Ukraine. The social protection of the population affected during Chernobyl catastrophe is founded on the Law of Ukraine 'About the status and social protection of citizens affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe' (see further - 'Law'), and is the principal direction of activity and the subject of the special state attention to total complex of problems bound to Chernobyl catastrophe consequences elimination. The current legislation stipulates partial compensation of material losses connected with resettlement of the affected population. According to the current legislation in Ukraine about 50 kinds of aid, privileges and compensations are submitted to the affected citizens

  2. Catastrophic Cervical Spine Injuries in Contact Sports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutton, Michael James; McGuire, Robert A.; Dunn, Robert; Williams, Richard; Robertson, Peter; Twaddle, Bruce; Kiely, Patrick; Clarke, Andrew; Mazda, Keyvan; Davies, Paul; Pagarigan, Krystle T.; Dettori, Joseph R.

    2016-01-01

    Study Design Systematic review. Objectives To determine the incidence of catastrophic cervical spine injuries (CCSIs) among elite athletes participating in contact team sports and whether the incidence varies depending on the use of protective gear or by player position. Methods Electronic databases and reference lists of key articles published from January 1, 2000, to January 29, 2016, were searched. Results Fourteen studies were included that reported CCSI in rugby (n = 10), American football (n = 3), and Irish hurling (n = 1). Among Rugby Union players, incidence of CCSI was 4.1 per 100,000 player-hours. Among National Football League players, the CCSI rate was 0.6 per 100,000 player-exposures. At the collegiate level, the CCSI rate ranged from 1.1 to 4.7 per 100,000 player-years. Mixed populations of elite and recreational rugby players in four studies report a CCSI rate of 1.4 to 7.2 per 100,000 player-years. In this same population, the scrum accounted for 30 to 51% of total reported CCSIs in Rugby Union versus 0 to 4% in Rugby League. The tackle accounted for 29 to 39% of injuries in Rugby Union and 78 to 100% of injuries in Rugby League. Making a tackle was responsible for 29 to 80% of injuries in American football. Conclusion CCSIs are infrequent among elite athletes. There is insufficient evidence to determine the effect of protective gear (e.g., helmets, padding) on CCSI incidence. Scrum and tackle in rugby and tackling in American football account for the majority of CCSIs in each respective sport. PMID:27781193

  3. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: a clinical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayer, Ali; Ortega, Luis M

    2014-01-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a rare life-threatening autoimmune disease characterized by disseminated intravascular thrombosis resulting in multiorgan failure. Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ), Google Scholar, PubMed (NLM), LISTA (EBSCO) and Web of Science have been searched. CAPS is due to antiphospholipid antibodies directed against a heterogeneous group of proteins that are associated with phospholipids. These autoantibodies activate endothelial cells, platelets, and immune cells, thereby promoting a proinflammatory and prothrombotic phenotype. Furthermore, antiphospholipid antibodies inhibit anticoagulants, impair fibrinolysis, and activate complements. Although CAPS can affect a variety of organs and tissues, the kidneys, lungs, central nervous system, heart, skin, liver, and gastrointestinal tract are most commonly affected. The systemic inflammatory response syndrome, likely to extensive tissue damage, accompanies CAPS. The most frequent renal manifestations are hypertension, proteinuria, hematuria, and acute renal failure.In the majority of patients with CAPS, a precipitating factor such as infection, surgery, or medication can be identified. Antiphospholipid antibodies such as lupus anticoagulant and antibodies against cardiolipin, β2-glycoprotein I, and prothrombin are serological hallmark of CAPS. Laboratory tests often reveal antinuclear antibodies, thrombocytopenia, and anemia. Despite widespread intravascular coagulation, blood films reveal only a small number of schistocytes. In addition, severe thrombocytopenia is uncommon. Histologically, CAPS is characterized by acute thrombotic microangiopathy. CAPS must be distinguished from other forms of thrombotic microangiopathies such as hemolytic-uremic syndrome, thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura, disseminated intravascular coagulation, and heparin-induced thrombocyt openia. CAPS is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Therefore, an aggressive multidisciplinary

  4. Catastrophic Cervical Spine Injuries in Contact Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutton, Michael James; McGuire, Robert A; Dunn, Robert; Williams, Richard; Robertson, Peter; Twaddle, Bruce; Kiely, Patrick; Clarke, Andrew; Mazda, Keyvan; Davies, Paul; Pagarigan, Krystle T; Dettori, Joseph R

    2016-11-01

    Study Design  Systematic review. Objectives  To determine the incidence of catastrophic cervical spine injuries (CCSIs) among elite athletes participating in contact team sports and whether the incidence varies depending on the use of protective gear or by player position. Methods  Electronic databases and reference lists of key articles published from January 1, 2000, to January 29, 2016, were searched. Results  Fourteen studies were included that reported CCSI in rugby ( n  = 10), American football ( n  = 3), and Irish hurling ( n  = 1). Among Rugby Union players, incidence of CCSI was 4.1 per 100,000 player-hours. Among National Football League players, the CCSI rate was 0.6 per 100,000 player-exposures. At the collegiate level, the CCSI rate ranged from 1.1 to 4.7 per 100,000 player-years. Mixed populations of elite and recreational rugby players in four studies report a CCSI rate of 1.4 to 7.2 per 100,000 player-years. In this same population, the scrum accounted for 30 to 51% of total reported CCSIs in Rugby Union versus 0 to 4% in Rugby League. The tackle accounted for 29 to 39% of injuries in Rugby Union and 78 to 100% of injuries in Rugby League. Making a tackle was responsible for 29 to 80% of injuries in American football. Conclusion  CCSIs are infrequent among elite athletes. There is insufficient evidence to determine the effect of protective gear (e.g., helmets, padding) on CCSI incidence. Scrum and tackle in rugby and tackling in American football account for the majority of CCSIs in each respective sport.

  5. Catastrophic Failure and Critical Scaling Laws of Fiber Bundle Material

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengwang Hao

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a spring-fiber bundle model used to describe the failure process induced by energy release in heterogeneous materials. The conditions that induce catastrophic failure are determined by geometric conditions and energy equilibrium. It is revealed that the relative rates of deformation of, and damage to the fiber bundle with respect to the boundary controlling displacement ε0 exhibit universal power law behavior near the catastrophic point, with a critical exponent of −1/2. The proportion of the rate of response with respect to acceleration exhibits a linear relationship with increasing displacement in the vicinity of the catastrophic point. This allows for the prediction of catastrophic failure immediately prior to failure by extrapolating the trajectory of this relationship as it asymptotes to zero. Monte Carlo simulations are completed and these two critical scaling laws are confirmed.

  6. Chernobyl: Endless horror. Late effects of the reactor catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roethlein, B.

    1996-01-01

    Ten years after the accident, the people of Chernobyl are trying to live a normal life, but the problems resulting from the catastrophe have not been solved. Some of them are just starting to emerge. (orig.) [de

  7. Polarization catastrophe in nanostructures doped in photonic band gap materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singh, Mahi R. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Western Ontario, London N6A 3K7 (Canada)], E-mail: msingh@uwo.ca

    2008-11-30

    In the presence of the dipole-dipole interaction, we have studied a possible dielectric catastrophe in photonic band gap materials doped with an ensemble of four-level nanoparticles. It is found that the dielectric constant of the system has a singularity when the resonance energy lies within the bands. This phenomenon is known as the dielectric catastrophe. It is also found that this phenomenon depends on the strength of the dipole-dipole interaction.

  8. Special software for computing the special functions of wave catastrophes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey S. Kryukovsky

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The method of ordinary differential equations in the context of calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes is considered. Complementary numerical methods and algorithms are described. The paper shows approaches to accelerate such calculations using capabilities of modern computing systems. Methods for calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes are considered in the framework of parallel computing and distributed systems. The paper covers the development process of special software for calculating of special functions, questions of portability, extensibility and interoperability.

  9. Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour les collectivités vulnérables des Caraïbes. De récents événements survenus dans les Caraïbes ont mis en relief les insuffisances des mesures régionales et nationales de préparation aux catastrophes. On manque particulièrement de systèmes d'alerte ...

  10. The Effectiveness of Catastrophe Bonds in Portfolio Diversification

    OpenAIRE

    Mariani, Massimo; Amoruso, Paola

    2016-01-01

    The rapid growth of catastrophe bonds in financial markets is due to increasing environmental disasters and consequent economic losses, barely covered by insurance and reinsurance companies. These securities represent an effective solution, allowing the risk transfer to the capital market. The objective of this paper is to prove real advantages of the investor who operates in this market segment, in terms of portfolio diversification. The present work indeed shows how investing in catastrophe...

  11. Pain Catastrophizing Correlates with Early Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geneviève Chaput

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Identifying which patients are most likely to be at risk of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI is a difficult clinical challenge. Objectives. To examine the relationship between pain catastrophizing, defined as the exaggerated negative appraisal of a pain experience, and early MTBI outcome. Methods. This cross-sectional design included 58 patients diagnosed with a MTBI. In addition to medical chart review, postconcussion symptoms were assessed by self-report at 1 month (Time 1 and 8 weeks (Time 2 after MTBI. Pain severity, psychological distress, level of functionality, and pain catastrophizing were measured by self-report at Time 2. Results. The pain catastrophizing subscales of rumination, magnification, and helplessness were significantly correlated with pain severity (r=.31 to .44, number of postconcussion symptoms reported (r=.35 to .45, psychological distress (r=.57 to .67, and level of functionality (r=-.43 to -.29. Pain catastrophizing scores were significantly higher for patients deemed to be at high risk of postconcussion syndrome (6 or more symptoms reported at both Time 1 and Time 2. Conclusions. Higher levels of pain catastrophizing were related to adverse early MTBI outcomes. The early detection of pain catastrophizing may facilitate goal-oriented interventions to prevent or minimize the development of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms.

  12. Understanding catastrophizing from a misdirected problem-solving perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flink, Ida K; Boersma, Katja; MacDonald, Shane; Linton, Steven J

    2012-05-01

    The aim is to explore pain catastrophizing from a problem-solving perspective. The links between catastrophizing, problem framing, and problem-solving behaviour are examined through two possible models of mediation as inferred by two contemporary and complementary theoretical models, the misdirected problem solving model (Eccleston & Crombez, 2007) and the fear-anxiety-avoidance model (Asmundson, Norton, & Vlaeyen, 2004). In this prospective study, a general population sample (n= 173) with perceived problems with spinal pain filled out questionnaires twice; catastrophizing and problem framing were assessed on the first occasion and health care seeking (as a proxy for medically oriented problem solving) was assessed 7 months later. Two different approaches were used to explore whether the data supported any of the proposed models of mediation. First, multiple regressions were used according to traditional recommendations for mediation analyses. Second, a bootstrapping method (n= 1000 bootstrap resamples) was used to explore the significance of the indirect effects in both possible models of mediation. The results verified the concepts included in the misdirected problem solving model. However, the direction of the relations was more in line with the fear-anxiety-avoidance model. More specifically, the mediation analyses provided support for viewing catastrophizing as a mediator of the relation between biomedical problem framing and medically oriented problem-solving behaviour. These findings provide support for viewing catastrophizing from a problem-solving perspective and imply a need to examine and address problem framing and catastrophizing in back pain patients. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  13. Working group 4: Terrestrial

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    A working group at a Canada/USA symposium on climate change and the Arctic identified major concerns and issues related to terrestrial resources. The group examined the need for, and the means of, involving resource managers and users at local and territorial levels in the process of identifying and examining the impacts and consequences of climatic change. Climatic change will be important to the Arctic because of the magnitude of the change projected for northern latitudes; the apparent sensitivity of its terrestrial ecosystems, natural resources, and human support systems; and the dependence of the social, cultural, and economic welfare of Arctic communities, businesses, and industries on the health and quality of their environment. Impacts of climatic change on the physical, biological, and associated socio-economic environment are outlined. Gaps in knowledge needed to quantify these impacts are listed along with their relationships with resource management. Finally, potential actions for response and adaptation are presented

  14. Phytopharmacology of Tribulus terrestris.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahid, M; Riaz, M; Talpur, M M A; Pirzada, T

    2016-01-01

    Tribulus terrestris is an annual herb which belongs to the Zygophyllaceae family. This plant has been used in traditional medicine for the treatment of various diseases for hundreds of decades. The main active phytoconstituents of this plant include flavonoids, alkaloids, saponins, lignin, amides, and glycosides. The plant parts have different pharmacological activities including aphrodisiac, antiinflammatory, antimicrobial and antioxidant potential. T. terrestris is most often used for infertility and loss of libido. It has potential application as immunomodulatory, hepatoprotective, hypolipidemic, anthelmintic and anticarcinogenic activities. The aim of the present article is to create a database for further investigation of the phytopharmacological properties of this plant to promote research. This study will definitely help to confirm its traditional use along with its value-added utility, eventually leading to higher revenues from the plant.

  15. Terrestrial plant methane production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Teis Nørgaard; Bruhn, Dan; Møller, Ian M.

    We evaluate all experimental work published on the phenomenon of aerobic methane (CH4) generation in terrestrial plants. We conclude that the phenomenon is true. Four stimulating factors have been observed to induce aerobic plant CH4 production, i.e. cutting injuries, increasing temperature...... the aerobic methane emission in plants. Future work is needed for establishing the relative contribution of several proven potential CH4 precursors in plant material....

  16. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in obstetric practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Валерий Николаевич Запорожан

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Thus, the Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS is much more common than has been assumed until now, in all patients the authors strongly recommend screening for AFA. Furthermore, eclampsia, HELLP-syndrome premature detachment of normally located placentae (PDNSP can develop in the presence of other defects of hemostasis, in particular in mutation FV Leiden, MTHFR C677T, deficiency of protein C (PC, protein S (PS. The combination of acquired thrombophilia due to APS, with genetic defects worsen hemostasis during the pathological process leading to the development of thrombotic complications. Perhaps a combination of hereditary thrombophilia and APS creates a favorable environment in which, under certain conditions, possible decompensation of the hemostatic system and the development of CAPS. Patients with APS constitute a group of very high risk of thromboembolic complications in the perioperative period. Even a minimally invasive intervention (biopsy, curettage, tooth extraction may trigger the development of CAPS. Thus, according to Erkan et al. (2003, 40% of patients develop CAPS was provoked by surgery. The main reasons for the development of thrombotic complications in connection with surgical intervention is the damage to the vessel wall, blood stasis and the abolition of indirect anticoagulants. In the study on the presence of genetic thrombophilia was found heterozygous form of FV Leiden mutation and homozygous mutation of MTHFR C677T. He was diagnosed with pregnancy 14 weeks, APS, mixed form of thrombophilia (a combination of acquisitions and multigenic thrombophilia, hyperhomocysteinemia, weighed down by obstetric and somatic history.It is very urgent and important problem remains diagnosis CAPS, which is inconceivable without the determination of AFA. The latter should be mandatory for all pregnant women with preeclampsia habitual miscarriage, Premature detachment of normally situated placenta (PDNSP, genital herpes history

  17. A probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, Rui; Martina, Mario; Stephenson, David; Youngman, Benjamin

    2017-04-01

    Economic losses due to natural hazards have shown an upward trend since 1980, which is expected to continue. Recent years have seen a growing worldwide commitment towards the reduction of disaster losses. This requires effective management of disaster risk at all levels, a part of which involves reducing financial vulnerability to disasters ex-ante, ensuring that necessary resources will be available following such events. One way to achieve this is through risk transfer instruments. These can be based on different types of triggers, which determine the conditions under which payouts are made after an event. This study focuses on parametric triggers, where payouts are determined by the occurrence of an event exceeding specified physical parameters at a given location, or at multiple locations, or over a region. This type of product offers a number of important advantages, and its adoption is increasing. The main drawback of parametric triggers is their susceptibility to basis risk, which arises when there is a mismatch between triggered payouts and the occurrence of loss events. This is unavoidable in said programmes, as their calibration is based on models containing a number of different sources of uncertainty. Thus, a deterministic definition of the loss event triggering parameters appears flawed. However, often for simplicity, this is the way in which most parametric models tend to be developed. This study therefore presents an innovative probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance. It is advantageous as it recognizes uncertainties and minimizes basis risk while maintaining a simple and transparent procedure. A logistic regression model is constructed here to represent the occurrence of loss events based on certain loss index variables, obtained through the transformation of input environmental variables. Flood-related losses due to rainfall are studied. The resulting model is able, for any given day, to issue probabilities of occurrence of loss

  18. From Catastrophizing to Recovery: a pilot study of a single-session treatment for pain catastrophizing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darnall BD

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Beth D Darnall, John A Sturgeon, Ming-Chih Kao, Jennifer M Hah, Sean C MackeyDivision of Pain Medicine, Stanford Systems Neuroscience and Pain Laboratory, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, USABackground: Pain catastrophizing (PC – a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to real or anticipated pain – maintains chronic pain and undermines medical treatments. Standard PC treatment involves multiple sessions of cognitive behavioral therapy. To provide efficient treatment, we developed a single-session, 2-hour class that solely treats PC entitled “From Catastrophizing to Recovery”[FCR].Objectives: To determine 1 feasibility of FCR; 2 participant ratings for acceptability, understandability, satisfaction, and likelihood to use the information learned; and 3 preliminary efficacy of FCR for reducing PC.Design and methods: Uncontrolled prospective pilot trial with a retrospective chart and database review component. Seventy-six patients receiving care at an outpatient pain clinic (the Stanford Pain Management Center attended the class as free treatment and 70 attendees completed and returned an anonymous survey immediately post-class. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS was administered at class check-in (baseline and at 2, and 4 weeks post-treatment. Within subjects repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA with Student's t-test contrasts were used to compare scores across time points.Results: All attendees who completed a baseline PCS were included as study participants (N=57; F=82%; mean age =50.2 years; PCS was completed by 46 participants at week 2 and 35 participants at week 4. Participants had significantly reduced PC at both time points (P<0001 and large effect sizes were found (Cohen's d=0.85 and d=1.15.Conclusion: Preliminary data suggest that FCR is an acceptable and effective treatment for PC. Larger, controlled studies of longer duration are needed to determine durability of response, factors

  19. Vaginismus: heightened harm avoidance and pain catastrophizing cognitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borg, Charmaine; Peters, Madelon L; Schultz, Willibrord Weijmar; de Jong, Peter J

    2012-02-01

    Catastrophic appraisal of experienced pain may promote hypervigilance and intense pain, while the personality trait of harm avoidance (HA) might prevent the occurrence of correcting such experiences. Women inflicted with vaginismus may enter a self-perpetuating downward spiral of increasing avoidance of (anticipated) pain. In vaginismus the anticipation of pain may give rise to catastrophic pain ideation. This may establish hypervigilance toward painful sexual stimuli, which consequently results in negative appraisal of sexual cues. This process could impair genital and sexual responding, intensify pain and trigger avoidance, which in turn may contribute to the onset and persistence of symptoms in vaginismus and to certain extent also in dyspareunia. To investigate whether women suffering from vaginismus are characterized by heightened levels of habitual pain catastrophic cognitions, together with higher levels of HA. This study consisted of three groups: a lifelong vaginismus group (N = 35, mean age = 28.4; standard deviation [SD] = 5.8), a dyspareunia group (N = 33, mean age = 26.7; SD = 6.8), and women without sexual complaints (N = 54, mean age = 26.5; SD = 6.7). HA scale of Cloninger's tridimensional personality questionnaire, and the pain catastrophizing scale. Specifically women inflicted with vaginismus showed significantly heightened levels of catastrophic pain cognitions compared with the other two groups, as well as significant enhanced HA vs. the control group, and a trend vs. the dyspareunia group. Both traits were shown to have cumulative predictive validity for the presence of vaginismus. This study focused on the personality traits of catastrophizing pain cognitions and HA in women with lifelong vaginismus. Our findings showed that indeed, women suffering from vaginismus are characterized by trait of HA interwoven with habitual pain catastrophizing cognitions. This study could help in the refinement of the current conceptualization and might shed

  20. Catastrophes et consommation des substances psychoactives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krivokapić Žilijeta

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available (francuski Les catastrophes, les accidents, les stress, les traumatismes sont des expériences négatives de vie accompagnées de changements physiologiques, cognitifs, émotionnels et comportementaux. Les stratégies les plus courantes inefficaces à résoudre les expériences de vie négatives sont: l' agression - ouverte (physique et / ou verbale, passive et latente, le retrait social, le placage, la dépression, l'impuissance, l' isolement et l' abus de médicaments, en particulier de drogues. Les personnes se trouvant dans des situations stressantes essayent de s' aider elles-mêmes souvent en recourant à des substances qui procurent une amélioration de leur état et suppriment le malaise momentané. Cette 'thérapie par auto-thérapie' comporte de graves risques La personne qui, après une période de consommation de ces substances devenaient dépendante, manifeste des changements visibles au niveau physique et psychologique. Elle se dérobe à ses obligations, rompt avec les activités auxquelles elle prenait plaisir autrefois de même qu' avec ses loisirs et ses intérêts; elle change des amis, ses relations familiales et amicales deviennent pauvres et remplies de nombreux conflits; elle devient moins critique et plus manipulative, commence à mentir, trompe pour dissimuler sa toxicomanie, rejoint un groupe de ses semblables, se livre à des activités criminogènes, de plus en plus se dégrade physiquement. L' alcool qui, étant le plus accessible et par conséquent généralement 'la première mesure d' auto-thérapie', a un impact particulièrement dévastateur sur l' organisme sensible au point de vue psycho-physique. Nous assistons à de nombreuses difficultés et des problèmes qui, à la suite de la consommation d' alcool, aggravent ceux liés à des expériences des événements traumatisants. De même l' efficacité de certains comprimés de réduire les tensions ou d' améliorer l' état du patient conduit fréquemment

  1. Some Studies of Terrestrial Impact Cratering Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jetsu L.

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available In 1984, a 28.4 Myr periodicity was detected in the ages of terrestrial impact craters and a 26 Myr periodicity in the epochs of mass extinctions of species. Periodic comet showers from the Oort cloud seemed to cause catastrophic events linked to mass extinctions of species. Our first study revealed that the only significant detected periodicity is the “human signal” caused by the rounding of these data into integer numbers. The second study confirmed that the original 28.4 Myr periodicity detection was not significant. The third study revealed that the quality and the quantity of the currently available data would allow detection of real periodicity only if all impacts have been periodic, which cannot be the case. The detection of a periodic signal, if present, requires that more craters should be discovered and the accuracy of age estimates improved. If we sometimes will be able to find the difference between the craters caused by asteroid and comet impacts, the aperiodic component could be removed. The lunar impact craters may eventually provide the required supplementary data.

  2. Arctic Terrestrial Biodiversity Monitoring Plan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Tom; Payne, J.; Doyle, M.

    The Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF), the biodiversity working group of the Arctic Council, established the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program (CBMP) to address the need for coordinated and standardized monitoring of Arctic environments. The CBMP includes an international...... on developing and implementing long-term plans for monitoring the integrity of Arctic biomes: terrestrial, marine, freshwater, and coastal (under development) environments. The CBMP Terrestrial Expert Monitoring Group (CBMP-TEMG) has developed the Arctic Terrestrial Biodiversity Monitoring Plan (CBMP......-Terrestrial Plan/the Plan) as the framework for coordinated, long-term Arctic terrestrial biodiversity monitoring. The goal of the CBMP-Terrestrial Plan is to improve the collective ability of Arctic traditional knowledge (TK) holders, northern communities, and scientists to detect, understand and report on long...

  3. Forecasting giant, catastrophic slope collapse: lessons from Vajont, Northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilburn, Christopher R. J.; Petley, David N.

    2003-08-01

    Rapid, giant landslides, or sturzstroms, are among the most powerful natural hazards on Earth. They have minimum volumes of ˜10 6-10 7 m 3 and, normally preceded by prolonged intervals of accelerating creep, are produced by catastrophic and deep-seated slope collapse (loads ˜1-10 MPa). Conventional analyses attribute rapid collapse to unusual mechanisms, such as the vaporization of ground water during sliding. Here, catastrophic collapse is related to self-accelerating rock fracture, common in crustal rocks at loads ˜1-10 MPa and readily catalysed by circulating fluids. Fracturing produces an abrupt drop in resisting stress. Measured stress drops in crustal rock account for minimum sturzstrom volumes and rapid collapse accelerations. Fracturing also provides a physical basis for quantitatively forecasting catastrophic slope failure.

  4. Dynamical systems V bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory

    CERN Document Server

    1994-01-01

    Bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory are two of the best known areas within the field of dynamical systems. Both are studies of smooth systems, focusing on properties that seem to be manifestly non-smooth. Bifurcation theory is concerned with the sudden changes that occur in a system when one or more parameters are varied. Examples of such are familiar to students of differential equations, from phase portraits. Moreover, understanding the bifurcations of the differential equations that describe real physical systems provides important information about the behavior of the systems. Catastrophe theory became quite famous during the 1970's, mostly because of the sensation caused by the usually less than rigorous applications of its principal ideas to "hot topics", such as the characterization of personalities and the difference between a "genius" and a "maniac". Catastrophe theory is accurately described as singularity theory and its (genuine) applications. The authors of this book, the first printing of w...

  5. Stagewise cognitive development: an application of catastrophe theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Maas, H L; Molenaar, P C

    1992-07-01

    In this article an overview is given of traditional methodological approaches to stagewise cognitive developmental research. These approaches are evaluated and integrated on the basis of catastrophe theory. In particular, catastrophe theory specifies a set of common criteria for testing the discontinuity hypothesis proposed by Piaget. Separate criteria correspond to distinct methods used in cognitive developmental research. Such criteria are, for instance, the detection of spurts in development, bimodality of test scores, and increased variability of responses during transitional periods. When a genuine stage transition is present, these criteria are expected to be satisfied. A revised catastrophe model accommodating these criteria is proposed for the stage transition in cognitive development from the preoperational to the concrete operational stage.

  6. Strategic reasoning and bargaining in catastrophic climate change games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verendel, Vilhelm; Johansson, Daniel J. A.; Lindgren, Kristian

    2016-03-01

    Two decades of international negotiations show that agreeing on emission levels for climate change mitigation is a hard challenge. However, if early warning signals were to show an upcoming tipping point with catastrophic damage, theory and experiments suggest this could simplify collective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At the actual threshold, no country would have a free-ride incentive to increase emissions over the tipping point, but it remains for countries to negotiate their emission levels to reach these agreements. We model agents bargaining for emission levels using strategic reasoning to predict emission bids by others and ask how this affects the possibility of reaching agreements that avoid catastrophic damage. It is known that policy elites often use a higher degree of strategic reasoning, and in our model this increases the risk for climate catastrophe. Moreover, some forms of higher strategic reasoning make agreements to reduce greenhouse gases unstable. We use empirically informed levels of strategic reasoning when simulating the model.

  7. Socioeconomic inequality in catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boing, Alexandra Crispim; Bertoldi, Andréa Dâmaso; Barros, Aluísio Jardim Dornellas de; Posenato, Leila Garcia; Peres, Karen Glazer

    2014-08-01

    To analyze the evolution of catastrophic health expenditure and the inequalities in such expenses, according to the socioeconomic characteristics of Brazilian families. Data from the National Household Budget 2002-2003 (48,470 households) and 2008-2009 (55,970 households) were analyzed. Catastrophic health expenditure was defined as excess expenditure, considering different methods of calculation: 10.0% and 20.0% of total consumption and 40.0% of the family's capacity to pay. The National Economic Indicator and schooling were considered as socioeconomic characteristics. Inequality measures utilized were the relative difference between rates, the rates ratio, and concentration index. The catastrophic health expenditure varied between 0.7% and 21.0%, depending on the calculation method. The lowest prevalences were noted in relation to the capacity to pay, while the highest, in relation to total consumption. The prevalence of catastrophic health expenditure increased by 25.0% from 2002-2003 to 2008-2009 when the cutoff point of 20.0% relating to the total consumption was considered and by 100% when 40.0% or more of the capacity to pay was applied as the cut-off point. Socioeconomic inequalities in the catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil between 2002-2003 and 2008-2009 increased significantly, becoming 5.20 times higher among the poorest and 4.17 times higher among the least educated. There was an increase in catastrophic health expenditure among Brazilian families, principally among the poorest and those headed by the least-educated individuals, contributing to an increase in social inequality.

  8. Contaminant exposure in terrestrial vertebrates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Philip N.; Cobb, George P.; Godard-Codding, Celine; Hoff, Dale; McMurry, Scott T.; Rainwater, Thomas R.; Reynolds, Kevin D.

    2007-01-01

    Here we review mechanisms and factors influencing contaminant exposure among terrestrial vertebrate wildlife. There exists a complex mixture of biotic and abiotic factors that dictate potential for contaminant exposure among terrestrial and semi-terrestrial vertebrates. Chemical fate and transport in the environment determine contaminant bioaccessibility. Species-specific natural history characteristics and behavioral traits then play significant roles in the likelihood that exposure pathways, from source to receptor, are complete. Detailed knowledge of natural history traits of receptors considered in conjunction with the knowledge of contaminant behavior and distribution on a site are critical when assessing and quantifying exposure. We review limitations in our understanding of elements of exposure and the unique aspects of exposure associated with terrestrial and semi-terrestrial taxa. We provide insight on taxa-specific traits that contribute, or limit exposure to, transport phenomenon that influence exposure throughout terrestrial systems, novel contaminants, bioavailability, exposure data analysis, and uncertainty associated with exposure in wildlife risk assessments. Lastly, we identify areas related to exposure among terrestrial and semi-terrestrial organisms that warrant additional research. - Both biotic and abiotic factors determine chemical exposure for terrestrial vertebrates

  9. Clinical Pain Catastrophizing in Women With Migraine and Obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, Dale S; Buse, Dawn C; Lipton, Richard B; Thomas, J Graham; Rathier, Lucille; Roth, Julie; Pavlovic, Jelena M; Evans, E Whitney; Wing, Rena R

    2015-01-01

    Obesity is related to migraine. Maladaptive pain coping strategies (eg, pain catastrophizing) may provide insight into this relationship. In women with migraine and obesity, we cross-sectionally assessed: (1) prevalence of clinical catastrophizing; (2) characteristics of those with and without clinical catastrophizing; and (3) associations of catastrophizing with headache features. Obese women migraineurs seeking weight loss treatment (n = 105) recorded daily migraine activity for 1 month via smartphone and completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). Clinical catastrophizing was defined as total PCS score ≥30. The six-item Headache Impact Test (HIT-6), 12-item Allodynia Symptom Checklist (ASC-12), Headache Management Self-Efficacy Scale (HMSE), and assessments for depression (Centers for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale) and anxiety (seven-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale) were also administered. Using PCS scores and body mass index (BMI) as predictors in linear regression, we modeled a series of headache features (ie, headache days, HIT-6, etc) as outcomes. One quarter (25.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 17.2-34.1%) of participants met criteria for clinical catastrophizing: they had higher BMI (37.9 ± 7.5 vs 34.4 ± 5.7 kg/m(2) , P = .035); longer migraine attack duration (160.8 ± 145.0 vs 97.5 ± 75.2 hours/month, P = .038); higher HIT-6 scores (68.7 ± 4.6 vs 64.5 ± 3.9, P duration (β = 0.390, P duration, higher pain sensitivity, greater headache impact, and lower headache management self-efficacy. In all participants, PCS scores were related to several migraine characteristics, above and beyond the effects of obesity. Prospective studies are needed to determine sequence and mechanisms of relationships between catastrophizing, obesity, and migraine. © 2015 American Headache Society.

  10. Isotopic investigations in the area of the Tunguska catastrophe in 1908 year

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolesnikov, E.M.

    1988-01-01

    The hypotheses of the annihilation and thermonuclear character of the Tunguska explosion have been tested by measuring inductive Ar-39 radioactivity from K and Ca in rocks and soil under the explosion epicentrum. Ar-39 was not detected though its estimated radioactivity was expected to be 100 times higher than the radio-metrical plant sensitivity. These results testify against the nuclear nature of the Tunguska explosion. The contents of 11 elements in the ultrasmall quantity of matter of the silicate microspherules isolated from catastrophe peat layer at the explosion site were measured by method of neutron activation analysis. It was demonstrated that the enrichment of microspherules by light and volatile elements (Al, Na, Zn, Cs) and the impoverishment by more heavy and hard volatile ones (Fe, Co, Sc). It was shown that the microspherules were not the product of differentiation of the terrestrial soil or of an ordinary meteorite material. It was demonstrated that Pb isotopic content in catastrophe peat layer had more Pb-204, Pb-207, Pb-208 than Pb-206 as compared with Pb isotopic content of other peat layers and common Pb in this area. In the peat column taken at the Ostraya hill area in three nearcatastrophe layers, small increases of isotopic C-13 was determined. Isotopic C effect in the peat layer is confirmed also for the North peatbog. Observed isotopic changes are not accounted for by climatic changes or other physico-chemical reasons. They seem to be related to preservation in the peat of matter resembling carbonaceous chrondrites of the Cl type or more probably of cometary matter enriched much more in volatile elements

  11. Terrestrial Water Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodell, M.; Chambers, D. P.; Famiglietti, J. S.

    2015-01-01

    During 2014 dryness continued in the Northern Hemisphere and relative wetness continued in the Southern Hemisphere (Fig. 2.21; Plate 2.1g). These largely canceled out such that the global land surface began and ended the year with a terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomaly slightly below 0 cm (equivalent height of water; Fig. 2.22). TWS is the sum of groundwater, soil moisture, surface water, snow, and ice. Groundwater responds more slowly to meteorological phenomena than the other components because the overlying soil acts as a low pass filter, but often it has a larger range of variability on multiannual timescales (Rodell and Famiglietti 2001; Alley et al. 2002).In situ groundwater data are only archived and made and Tanzania. The rest of the continent experienced mixed to dry conditions. Significant reductions in TWS in Greenland, Antarctica, and southern coastal Alaska reflect ongoing ice sheet and glacier ablation, not groundwater depletion.

  12. Pain catastrophizing predicts verbal expression among children with chronic pain and their mothers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelby L Langer

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This study examined intra- and inter-personal associations between pain catastrophizing and verbal expression in 70 children with recurrent abdominal pain and their mothers. Participants independently completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. Mothers and children then talked about the child’s pain. Speech was categorized using a linguistic analysis program. Catastrophizing was positively associated with the use of negative emotion words by both mothers and children. In addition, mothers’ catastrophizing was positively associated with both mothers’ and children’s anger word usage, whereas children’s catastrophizing was inversely associated with mothers’ anger word usage. Findings extend the literature on behavioral and interpersonal aspects of catastrophizing.

  13. Three Solvable Matrix Models of a Quantum Catastrophe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Levai, G.; Růžička, František; Znojil, Miloslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 9 (2014), s. 2875-2890 ISSN 0020-7748 Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : quantum theory * PT symmetry * Finite-dimensional non-Hermitian Hamiltonians * exceptional-point localization * quantum theory of catastrophes * methods of computer algebra Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 1.184, year: 2014

  14. Catastrophe Theory: A Unified Model for Educational Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cryer, Patricia; Elton, Lewis

    1990-01-01

    Catastrophe Theory and Herzberg's theory of motivation at work was used to create a model of change that unifies and extends Lewin's two separate stage and force field models. This new model is used to analyze the behavior of academics as they adapt to the changing university environment. (Author/MLW)

  15. Laboratory tests of catastrophic disruption of rotating bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, A. J. W.; Burchell, M. J.

    2017-11-01

    The results of catastrophic disruption experiments on static and rotating targets are reported. The experiments used cement spheres of diameter 10 cm as the targets. Impacts were by mm sized stainless steel spheres at speeds of between 1 and 7.75 km s-1. Energy densities (Q) in the targets ranged from 7 to 2613 J kg-1. The experiments covered both the cratering and catastrophic disruption regimes. For static, i.e. non-rotating targets the critical energy density for disruption (Q*, the value of Q when the largest surviving target fragment has a mass equal to one half of the pre-impact target mass) was Q* = 1447 ± 90 J kg-1. For rotating targets (median rotation frequency of 3.44 Hz) we found Q* = 987 ± 349 J kg-1, a reduction of 32% in the mean value. This lower value of Q* for rotating targets was also accompanied by a larger scatter on the data, hence the greater uncertainty. We suggest that in some cases the rotating targets behaved as static targets, i.e. broke up with the same catastrophic disruption threshold, but in other cases the rotation helped the break up causing a lower catastrophic disruption threshold, hence both the lower value of Q* and the larger scatter on the data. The fragment mass distributions after impact were similar in both the static and rotating target experiments with similar slopes.

  16. The application of catastrophe theory to medical image analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, A.; Florack, L.M.J.

    2001-01-01

    In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the influence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of annihilations and

  17. The Application of Catastrophe Theory to Medical Image Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, Arjan; Florack, L.M.J.

    2001-01-01

    In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the influence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of

  18. The application of catastrophe theory to image analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, A.; Florack, L.M.J.

    2001-01-01

    In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the inuence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of annihilations and the

  19. Vaginismus : Heightened Harm Avoidance and Pain Catastrophizing Cognitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borg, Charmaine; Peters, Madelon L.; Schultz, Willibrord Weijmar; de Jong, Peter J.

    Introduction. Catastrophic appraisal of experienced pain may promote hypervigilance and intense pain, while the personality trait of harm avoidance (HA) might prevent the occurrence of correcting such experiences. Women inflicted with vaginismus may enter a self-perpetuating downward spiral of

  20. Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T

    2015-08-25

    The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.

  1. Community resilience and decision theory challenges for catastrophic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony

    2012-11-01

    Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd-following, group-think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard-to-envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building "disaster-resilient" communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. The Catalan version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale: a useful instrument to assess catastrophic thinking in whiplash patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miró, Jordi; Nieto, Rubén; Huguet, Anna

    2008-05-01

    The main aims of this work were to test the psychometric properties of the Catalan version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) and to assess the usefulness of the scale when used with whiplash patients. This article reports results from 2 complementary studies. In the first one, the PCS was administered to 280 students and 146 chronic pain patients to examine the psychometric properties of a new Catalan version of the instrument. A confirmatory factor analysis supported a second-order structure, in which 3 second-order factors (ie, rumination, helplessness, and magnification) load in a higher-order factor (ie, catastrophizing). The reliability of the Catalan version was supported by an acceptable internal consistency and test-retest values. Validity was supported by the correlations found among the PCS and pain intensity, pain interference, and depression. The objective of the second study was to evaluate the PCS when used with whiplash patients. In this second study, 141 patients with whiplash disorders participated. In general, the psychometric properties of the PCS were found appropriate, with factor analysis supporting the structure described in patients with chronic pain. Our data suggest that the PCS is a good instrument to assess catastrophic thinking in whiplash patients. The usefulness of the PCS in whiplash disorders has been explored in this study. Results of our work show that the PCS can be a very useful tool to assess catastrophic thinking about pain in whiplash patients.

  3. Tidally Heated Terrestrial Exoplanets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henning, Wade Garrett

    This work models the surface and internal temperatures for hypothetical terrestrial planets in situations involving extreme tidal heating. The feasibility of such planets is evaluated in terms of the orbital perturbations that may give rise to them, their required proximity to a hoststar, and the potential for the input tidal heating to cause significant partial melting of the mantle. Trapping terrestrial planets into 2:1 resonances with migrating Hot Jupiters is considered as a reasonable way for Earth-like worlds to both maintain high eccentricities and to move to short enough orbital periods (1-20 days) for extreme tidal heating to occur. Secular resonance and secular orbital perturbations may support moderate tidal heating at a low equilibrium eccentricity. At orbital periods below 10-30 days, with eccentricities from 0.01 to 0.1, tidal heat may greatly exceed radiogenic heat production. It is unlikely to exceed insolation, except when orbiting very low luminosity hosts, and thus will have limited surface temperature expression. Observations of such bodies many not be able to detect tidal surface enhancements given a few percent uncertainty in albedo, except on the nightside of spin synchronous airless objects. Otherwise detection may occur via spectral detection of hotspots or high volcanic gas concentrations including sulfur dioxide and hydrogen sulfide. The most extreme cases may be able to produce magma oceans, or magma slush mantles with up to 40-60% melt fractions. Tides may alter the habitable zones for smaller red dwarf stars, but are generally detrimental. Multiple viscoelastic models, including the Maxwell, Voigt-Kelvin, Standard Anelastic Solid, and Burgers rheologies are explored and applied to objects such as Io and the super-Earth planet GJ 876d. The complex valued Love number for the Burgers rheology is derived and found to be a useful improvement when modeling the low temperature behavior of tidal bodies, particularly during low eccentricity

  4. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome mimicking a malignant pancreatic tumour--a case report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wissen, S.; Bastiaansen, B. A. J.; Stroobants, A. K.; van den Dool, E. J.; Idu, M. M.; Levi, M. [=Marcel M.; Stroes, E. S. G.

    2008-01-01

    The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is characterised by rapid onset thromboses, often resistant to conventional anticoagulant treatment, and resulting in life threatening multiple organ dysfunction. The diagnosis of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome may be difficult, predominantly due to

  5. Catastrophic costs potentially averted by tuberculosis control in India and South Africa: a modelling study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verguet, Stéphane; Riumallo-Herl, Carlos; Gomez, Gabriela B.; Menzies, Nicolas A.; Houben, Rein M. G. J.; Sumner, Tom; Lalli, Marek; White, Richard G.; Salomon, Joshua A.; Cohen, Ted; Foster, Nicola; Chatterjee, Susmita; Sweeney, Sedona; Baena, Inés Garcia; Lönnroth, Knut; Weil, Diana E.; Vassall, Anna

    2017-01-01

    The economic burden on households affected by tuberculosis through costs to patients can be catastrophic. WHO's End TB Strategy recognises and aims to eliminate these potentially devastating economic effects. We assessed whether aggressive expansion of tuberculosis services might reduce catastrophic

  6. Geological remote sensing signatures of terrestrial impact craters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garvin, J.B.; Schnetzler, C.; Grieve, R.A.F.

    1988-01-01

    Geological remote sensing techniques can be used to investigate structural, depositional, and shock metamorphic effects associated with hypervelocity impact structures, some of which may be linked to global Earth system catastrophies. Although detailed laboratory and field investigations are necessary to establish conclusive evidence of an impact origin for suspected crater landforms, the synoptic perspective provided by various remote sensing systems can often serve as a pathfinder to key deposits which can then be targetted for intensive field study. In addition, remote sensing imagery can be used as a tool in the search for impact and other catastrophic explosion landforms on the basis of localized disruption and anomaly patterns. In order to reconstruct original dimensions of large, complex impact features in isolated, inaccessible regions, remote sensing imagery can be used to make preliminary estimates in the absence of field geophysical surveys. The experienced gained from two decades of planetary remote sensing of impact craters on the terrestrial planets, as well as the techniques developed for recognizing stages of degradation and initial crater morphology, can now be applied to the problem of discovering and studying eroded impact landforms on Earth. Preliminary results of remote sensing analyses of a set of terrestrial impact features in various states of degradation, geologic settings, and for a broad range of diameters and hence energies of formation are summarized. The intention is to develop a database of remote sensing signatures for catastrophic impact landforms which can then be used in EOS-era global surveys as the basis for locating the possibly hundreds of missing impact structures

  7. Ecological transfer mechanisms - Terrestrial

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, W.E.; Raines, Gilbert E.; Bloom, S.G.; Levin, A.A.

    1969-01-01

    Radionuclides produced by nuclear excavation detonations and released to the environment may enter a variety of biogeochemical cycles and follow essentially the same transfer pathways as their stable-element counterparts. Estimation of potential internal radiation doses to individuals and/or populations living in or near fallout-contaminated areas requires analysis of the food-chain and other ecological pathways by which radionuclides released to the environment may be returned to man. A generalized materials transfer diagram, applicable to the forest, agricultural, freshwater and marine ecosystems providing food and water to the indigenous population of Panama and Colombia in regions that could be affected by nuclear excavation of a sea-level canal between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, is presented. Transfer mechanisms effecting the movement of stable elements and radionuclides in terrestrial ecosystems are discussed, and methods used to simulate these processes by means of mathematical models are described to show how intake values are calculated for different radionuclides in the major ecological pathways leading to man. These data provide a basis for estimating potential internal radiation doses for comparison with the radiation protection criteria established by recognized authorities; and this, in turn, provides a basis for recommending measures to insure the radiological safety of the nuclear operation plan. (author)

  8. Solar-terrestrial physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patel, V.L.

    1977-01-01

    The Glossary is designed to be a technical dictionary that will provide solar workers of various specialties, students, other astronomers and theoreticians with concise information on the nature and the properties of phenomena of solar and solar-terrestrial physics. Each term, or group of related terms, is given a concise phenomenological and quantitative description, including the relationship to other phenomena and an interpretation in terms of physical processes. The references are intended to lead the non-specialist reader into the literature. This section deals with: geomagnetic field; coordinate systems; geomagnetic indices; Dst index; auroral electrojet index AE; daily, 27-day and semi-annual variations of geomagnetic field; micropulsation; geomagnetic storms; storm sudden commencement (SSC) or sudden commencement (SC); initial phase; ring current; sudden impulses; ionosphere; D region; polar cap absorption; sudden ionospheric disturbance; E region; sporadic E; equatorial electrojet; solar flare effect; F 1 and F 2 regions; spread F; travelling ionospheric disturbances; magnetosphere; magnetospheric coordinate systems; plasmasphere; magnetosheath; magnetospheric tail; substorm; radiation belts or Van Allen belts; whistlers; VLF emissions; aurora; auroral forms; auroral oval and auroral zones; auroral intensity; stable auroral red arcs; pulsing aurora; polar glow aurora; and airglow. (B.R.H.)

  9. Ecological transfer mechanisms - Terrestrial

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, W E; Raines, Gilbert E; Bloom, S G; Levin, A A [Battelle Memorial Institute, CoIumbus, OH (United States)

    1969-07-01

    Radionuclides produced by nuclear excavation detonations and released to the environment may enter a variety of biogeochemical cycles and follow essentially the same transfer pathways as their stable-element counterparts. Estimation of potential internal radiation doses to individuals and/or populations living in or near fallout-contaminated areas requires analysis of the food-chain and other ecological pathways by which radionuclides released to the environment may be returned to man. A generalized materials transfer diagram, applicable to the forest, agricultural, freshwater and marine ecosystems providing food and water to the indigenous population of Panama and Colombia in regions that could be affected by nuclear excavation of a sea-level canal between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, is presented. Transfer mechanisms effecting the movement of stable elements and radionuclides in terrestrial ecosystems are discussed, and methods used to simulate these processes by means of mathematical models are described to show how intake values are calculated for different radionuclides in the major ecological pathways leading to man. These data provide a basis for estimating potential internal radiation doses for comparison with the radiation protection criteria established by recognized authorities; and this, in turn, provides a basis for recommending measures to insure the radiological safety of the nuclear operation plan. (author)

  10. Aquatic and Terrestrial Environment 2004

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, J. M.; Boutrup, S.; Bijl, L. van der

    This report presents the 2004 results of the Danish National Monitoring and Assess-ment Programme for the Aquatic and Terrestrial Environments (NOVANA). 2004 was the first year in which terrestrial nature was included in the monitoring pro-gramme. The report reviews the state of the groundwater......, watercourses, lakes and marine waters and the pressures upon them and reviews the monitoring of terrestrial natural habitats and selected plants and animals. The report is based on the annual reports prepared for each subprogramme by the Topic Centres. The latter reports are mainly based on data collected...

  11. Catastrophe risk data scoping for disaster risk finance in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millinship, Ian; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz

    2017-04-01

    Developing countries across Latin America, Africa, and Asia are some of the most exposed to natural catastrophes in the world. Over the last 20 years, Asia has borne almost half the estimated global economic cost of natural disasters - around 53billion annually. Losses from natural disasters can damage growth and hamper economic development and unlike in developed countries where risk is reallocated through re/insurance, typically these countries rely on budget reallocations and donor assistance in order to attempt to meet financing needs. There is currently an active international dialogue on the need to increase access to disaster risk financing solutions in Asia. The World Bank-GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program with financial support from the Rockefeller Foundation, is currently working to develop regional options for disaster risk financing for developing countries in Asia. The first stage of this process has been to evaluate available catastrophe data suitable to support the design and implementation of disaster risk financing mechanisms in selected Asian countries. This project was carried out by a consortium of JBA Risk Management, JBA Consulting, ImageCat and Cat Risk Intelligence. The project focuses on investigating potential data sources for fourteen selected countries in Asia, for flood, tropical cyclone, earthquake and drought perils. The project was carried out under four stages. The first phase focused to identify and catalogue live/dynamic hazard data sources such as hazard gauging networks, or earth observations datasets which could be used to inform a parametric trigger. Live data sources were identified that provide credibility, transparency, independence, frequent reporting, consistency and stability. Data were catalogued at regional level, and prioritised at local level for five countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. The second phase was to identify, catalogue and evaluate catastrophe risk models

  12. Study on China’s Earthquake Prediction by Mathematical Analysis and its Application in Catastrophe Insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianjun, X.; Bingjie, Y.; Rongji, W.

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this paper was to improve catastrophe insurance level. Firstly, earthquake predictions were carried out using mathematical analysis method. Secondly, the foreign catastrophe insurances’ policies and models were compared. Thirdly, the suggestions on catastrophe insurances to China were discussed. The further study should be paid more attention on the earthquake prediction by introducing big data.

  13. Acceptance of governmental communication in catastrophes and media coverage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruhrmann, G.; Kohring, M.

    1997-01-01

    Technology policy - like every political field - has to deal with conflicts, in which different partial interests are negotiated. Technological catastrophes are based on past decisions in technology policy. From there specific problems of acceptance in catastrophes can only be understood according to this social and temporal context. Acceptance deficits of the government result from the insufficient consideration of the interests non-governmental actors express(ed) with regard to technological risk decisions. Therefore governmental risk and crisis communication should communicate the rationales underlying technology decisions, at the same time giving other actors the possibility of further negotiation. The media coverage plays an important role in this communication process. Following their own specific rules the media create a public sphere, in order to give different groups and institutions an orientation for their social acting. Governmental communication should not consider journalism as a transmission belt for its information policy - rather, in order to be effective, it should respect the specific journalistic conduct. (orig.) [de

  14. Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain stock market crashes?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 10 (2009), s. 1824-1836 ISSN 0165-1889 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GAUK(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe * Bifurcations * Singularity * Nonlinear dynamics * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.097, year: 2009

  15. Catastrophic health expenditure and its determinants in Kenya slum communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buigut, Steven; Ettarh, Remare; Amendah, Djesika D

    2015-05-14

    In Kenya, where 60 to 80% of the urban residents live in informal settlements (frequently referred to as slums), out-of-pocket (OOP) payments account for more than a third of national health expenditures. However, little is known on the extent to which these OOP payments are associated with personal or household financial catastrophe in the slums. This paper seeks to examine the incidence and determinants of catastrophic health expenditure among urban slum communities in Kenya. We use a unique dataset on informal settlement residents in Kenya and various approaches that relate households OOP payments for healthcare to total expenditures adjusted for subsistence, or income. We classified households whose OOP was in excess of a predefined threshold as facing catastrophic health expenditures (CHE), and identified the determinants of CHE using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The results indicate that the proportion of households facing CHE varies widely between 1.52% and 28.38% depending on the method and the threshold used. A core set of variables were found to be key determinants of CHE. The number of working adults in a household and membership in a social safety net appear to reduce the risk of catastrophic expenditure. Conversely, seeking care in a public or private hospital increases the risk of CHE. This study suggests that a substantial proportion of residents of informal settlements in Kenya face CHE and would likely forgo health care they need but cannot afford. Mechanisms that pool risk and cost (insurance) are needed to protect slum residents from CHE and improve equity in health care access and payment.

  16. The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

    2003-01-01

    Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

  17. Effects of microtubule mechanics on hydrolysis and catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Müller, N; Kierfeld, J

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a model for microtubule (MT) mechanics containing lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments, bending rigidity of dimers, and repulsive interactions between protofilaments modeling steric constraints to investigate the influence of mechanical forces on hydrolysis and catastrophes. We use the allosteric dimer model, where tubulin dimers are characterized by an equilibrium bending angle, which changes from 0 ∘ to 22 ∘ by hydrolysis of a dimer. This also affects the lateral interaction and bending energies and, thus, the mechanical equilibrium state of the MT. As hydrolysis gives rise to conformational changes in dimers, mechanical forces also influence the hydrolysis rates by mechanical energy changes modulating the hydrolysis rate. The interaction via the MT mechanics then gives rise to correlation effects in the hydrolysis dynamics, which have not been taken into account before. Assuming a dominant influence of mechanical energies on hydrolysis rates, we investigate the most probable hydrolysis pathways both for vectorial and random hydrolysis. Investigating the stability with respect to lateral bond rupture, we identify initiation configurations for catastrophes along the hydrolysis pathways and values for a lateral bond rupture force. If we allow for rupturing of lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments above this threshold force, our model exhibits avalanche-like catastrophe events. (papers)

  18. Catastrophic subsidence: An environmental hazard, shelby county, Alabama

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamoreaux, Philip E.; Newton, J. G.

    1986-03-01

    Induced sinkholes (catastrophic subsidence) are those caused or accelerated by human activities These sinkholes commonly result from a water level decline due to pumpage Construction activities in a cone of depression greatly increases the likelihood of sinkhole occurrence Almost all occur where cavities develop in unconsolidated deposits overlying solution openings in carbonate rocks. Triggering mechanisms resulting from water level declines are (1) loss of buoyant support of the water, (2) increased gradient and water velocity, (3) water-level fluctuations, and (4) induced recharge Construction activities triggering sinkhole development include ditching, removing overburden, drilling, movement of heavy equipment, blasting and the diversion and impoundment of drainage Triggering mechanisms include piping, saturation, and loading Induced sinkholes resulting from human water development/management activities are most predictable in a youthful karst area impacted by groundwater withdrawals Shape, depth, and timing of catastrophic subsidence can be predicted in general terms Remote sensing techniques are used in prediction of locations of catastrophic subsidence. This provides a basis for design and relocation of structures such as a gas pipeline, dam, or building Utilization of techniques and a case history of the relocation of a pipeline are described

  19. Thermal catastrophe in the plasma sheet boundary layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, R.A.; Goertz, C.K.; Grossmann, W.

    1986-01-01

    This letter presents a first step towards a substorm model including particle heating and transport in the plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL). The heating mechanism discussed is resonant absorption of Alfven waves. For some assumed MHD perturbation incident from the tail lobes onto the plasma sheet, the local heating rate in the PSBL has the form of a resonance function of the one-fluid plasma temperature. Balancing the local heating by convective transport of the heated plasma toward the central plasma sheet, and ''equation of state'' is found for the steady-state PSBL whose solution has the form of a mathematical catastrophe: at a critical value of a parameter containing the incident power flux, the local density, and the convection velocity, the equilibrium temperature jumps discontinuously. Associating this temperature increase with the abrupt onset of the substorm expansion phase, the catastrophe model indicates at least three ways in which the onset may be triggered. Several other consequences related to substorm dynamics are suggested by the simple catastrophe model

  20. Safeguards as catastrophic risk management: insights and projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leffer, T.N.

    2013-01-01

    The system of international agreements designed to prevent the use of nuclear weapons and to control the spread of nuclear weapons, materials and technologies (collectively referred to as the nuclear arms control and nonproliferation regimes) is posited as humanity.s first attempt to mitigate a man-made global catastrophic risk. By extrapolating general principles of government response to risk from the arms control and nonproliferation regimes, a model of international regime building for catastrophic risk mitigation is constructed. This model provides the context for an examination of the system of safeguards implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which serves as the nuclear nonproliferation regime.s verification and enforcement mechanism and thereby constitutes the regime's most completely developed discrete mechanism for risk mitigation (a 'system within a system'). An assessment of the history, evolution and effectiveness of the IAEA safeguards system in the context of the regimes-as-risk-mitigation model reveals some general principles for risk-mitigation regimes which are then applied to the safeguards system to identify ways in which it may be strengthened. Finally, the IAEA safeguards system is posited as the prototype verification/enforcement mechanism for future risk mitigation regimes that governments will be compelled to create in the face of new global catastrophic risks that technological advance will inevitably create. (author)

  1. The 1985 Nevado del Ruiz volcano catastrophe: anatomy and retrospection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voight, Barry

    1990-12-01

    This paper seeks to analyze in an objective way the circumstances and events that contributed to the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz catastrophe, in order to provide useful guidelines for future emergencies. The paper is organized into two principal parts. In the first part, an Anatomy of the catastrophe is developed as a step-by-step chronicle of events and actions taken by individuals and organizations during the period November 1984 through November 1985. This chronicle provides the essential background for the crucial events of November 13. This year-long period is broken down further to emphasize important chapters: the gradual awareness of the awakening of the volcano; a long period of institutional skepticism reflecting an absence of credibility; the closure of the credibility gap with the September 11 phreatic eruption, followed by an intensive effort to gird for the worst; and a detailed account of the day of reckoning. The second part of the paper, Retrospection, examines the numerous complicated factors that influenced the catastrophic outcome, and attempts to cull a few "lessons from Armero" in order to avoid similar occurrences in the future. In a nutshell, the government on the whole acted responsibly but was not willing to bear the economic or political costs of early evacuation or a false alarm. Science accurately foresaw the hazards but was insufficiently precise to render reliable warning of the crucial event at the last possible minute. Catastrophe was therefore a calculated risk, and this combination - the limitations of prediction/detection, the refusal to bear a false alarm and the lack of will to act on the uncertain information available - provided its immediate and most obvious causes. But because the crucial event occurred just two days before the Armero emergency management plan was to be critically examined and improved, the numerous circumstances which delayed progress of emergency management over the previous year also may be said to have

  2. Predicting catastrophes of non-autonomous networks with visibility graphs and horizontal visibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haicheng; Xu, Daolin; Wu, Yousheng

    2018-05-01

    Prediction of potential catastrophes in engineering systems is a challenging problem. We first attempt to construct a complex network to predict catastrophes of a multi-modular floating system in advance of their occurrences. Response time series of the system can be mapped into an virtual network by using visibility graph or horizontal visibility algorithm. The topology characteristics of the networks can be used to forecast catastrophes of the system. Numerical results show that there is an obvious corresponding relationship between the variation of topology characteristics and the onset of catastrophes. A Catastrophe Index (CI) is proposed as a numerical indicator to measure a qualitative change from a stable state to a catastrophic state. The two approaches, the visibility graph and horizontal visibility algorithms, are compared by using the index in the reliability analysis with different data lengths and sampling frequencies. The technique of virtual network method is potentially extendable to catastrophe predictions of other engineering systems.

  3. Disruption of the terrestrial plant ecosystem at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary, western interior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tschudy, R.H.; Pillmore, C.L.; Orth, C.J.; Gilmore, J.S.; Knight, J.D.

    1984-01-01

    The palynologically defined Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary in the western interior of North America occurs at the top of an iridium-rich clay layer. The boundary is characterized by the abrupt disappearance of certain pollen species, immediately followed by a pronounced, geologically brief change in the ratio of fern spores to angiosperm pollen. The occurrence of these changes at two widely separated sites implies continentwide disruption of the terrestrial ecosystem, probably caused by a major catastrophic event at the end of the period.

  4. Chernobyl catastrophe: Information for people living in the contaminated areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borisevich, Nikolaj

    2001-01-01

    The radioactive blow-outs after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant catastrophe reached many states. The largest amount of them (according to experts' estimations - 70%) fell out on the Belarus territory. The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. More than 14 years have passed since the Chernobyl NPP accident but some of the problems caused by the catastrophe have not been solved. This is bound up, first of all, with a high collective dosage absorbed by the population, with difficulties in forecasting and prophylactics of remote radiological effects, with ecological and economic crisis. The consequences of the disaster greatly affect all the aspects of vital activities of the affected regions and the state as a whole. Destructive tendencies have been revealed in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population inhabiting the contaminated territory and resettled as well, require considerable optimisation. Negative factors of the Chernobyl catastrophe, which are significant for human health can be divided into two groups as follows: radiation-based, directly related to influence of ionising radiation and non radiation based, related to changes in habitat and prolonged psychological stress. The specific peculiarities of psychogenic disorders caused by the catastrophe are determined by the following reasons: insufficient knowledge of radiation effects; constant apprehension for the health and well-being of themselves and their families, especially children; unexpected change of the life stereotype (forced resettlement, the break of the former life, changing the place and the character of work, etc.); the necessity of constant keeping precaution measures and prophylactic

  5. Utilization of the terrestrial cyanobacteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katoh, Hiroshi; Tomita-Yokotani, Kaori; Furukawa, Jun; Kimura, Shunta; Yokoshima, Mika; Yamaguchi, Yuji; Takenaka, Hiroyuki

    The terrestrial, N _{2}-fixing cyanobacterium, Nostoc commune has expected to utilize for agriculture, food and terraforming cause of its extracellular polysaccharide, desiccation tolerance and nitrogen fixation. Previously, the first author indicated that desiccation related genes were analyzed and the suggested that the genes were related to nitrogen fixation and metabolisms. In this report, we suggest possibility of agriculture, using the cyanobacterium. Further, we also found radioactive compounds accumulated N. commune (cyanobacterium) in Fukushima, Japan after nuclear accident. Thus, it is investigated to decontaminate radioactive compounds from the surface soil by the cyanobacterium and showed to accumulate radioactive compounds using the cyanobacterium. We will discuss utilization of terrestrial cyanobacteria under closed environment. Keyword: Desiccation, terrestrial cyanobacteria, bioremediation, agriculture

  6. Stochastic catastrophe theory and instabilities in plasma turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajkovic, Milan; Skoric, Milos

    2009-01-01

    Full text: A Langevin equation (LE) describing evolution of turbulence amplitude in plasma is analyzed from the aspect of stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT) so that turbulent plasma is considered as a stochastic gradient system. According to SCT the dynamics of the system is completely determined by the stochastic potential function and the maximum likelihood estimates of stable and unstable equilibria are associated with the modes and anti-modes, respectively, of the system's stationary probability density function. First order phase transitions occur at degenerate equilibrium points and the potential function at these points may be represented in a generic way. Since the diffusion function of plasma LE is not constant the probability density function (pdf) is not a reliable estimator of the number of stable states. We show that the generalized pdf represented as the product of the stationary pdf and the diffusion function is a reliable estimator of the stable states and that it can be evaluated from the zero mean crossing analysis of plasma turbulence signal. Stochastic bifurcations, and particularly the sudden (catastrophic) ones, are recognized from the pdf's obtained by the zero crossing analysis and we illustrate the applications of SCT in plasma turbulence on data obtained from the MAST (Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak) for low (L), high (H) and unstable dithering (L/H) confinement regimes. The relationship of the transformation invariant zero-crossing function and SCT is shown to provide important information about the nature of edge localized modes (ELMs) and L-H transition. Finally we show that ELMs occur as a result of catastrophic (hard) bifurcations ruling out the self-organized criticality scenario for their origin. (author)

  7. Catastrophic Disruption Threshold and Maximum Deflection from Kinetic Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, A. F.

    2017-12-01

    The use of a kinetic impactor to deflect an asteroid on a collision course with Earth was described in the NASA Near-Earth Object Survey and Deflection Analysis of Alternatives (2007) as the most mature approach for asteroid deflection and mitigation. The NASA DART mission will demonstrate asteroid deflection by kinetic impact at the Potentially Hazardous Asteroid 65803 Didymos in October, 2022. The kinetic impactor approach is considered to be applicable with warning times of 10 years or more and with hazardous asteroid diameters of 400 m or less. In principle, a larger kinetic impactor bringing greater kinetic energy could cause a larger deflection, but input of excessive kinetic energy will cause catastrophic disruption of the target, leaving possibly large fragments still on collision course with Earth. Thus the catastrophic disruption threshold limits the maximum deflection from a kinetic impactor. An often-cited rule of thumb states that the maximum deflection is 0.1 times the escape velocity before the target will be disrupted. It turns out this rule of thumb does not work well. A comparison to numerical simulation results shows that a similar rule applies in the gravity limit, for large targets more than 300 m, where the maximum deflection is roughly the escape velocity at momentum enhancement factor β=2. In the gravity limit, the rule of thumb corresponds to pure momentum coupling (μ=1/3), but simulations find a slightly different scaling μ=0.43. In the smaller target size range that kinetic impactors would apply to, the catastrophic disruption limit is strength-controlled. A DART-like impactor won't disrupt any target asteroid down to significantly smaller size than the 50 m below which a hazardous object would not penetrate the atmosphere in any case unless it is unusually strong.

  8. Soil and terrestrial biology studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    Soil and terrestrial biology studies focused on developing an understanding of the uptake of gaseous substances from the atmosphere by plants, biodegradation of oil, and the movement of Pu in the terrestrial ecosystems of the southeastern United States. Mathematical models were developed for SO 2 and tritium uptake from the atmosphere by plants; the uptake of tritium by soil microorganisms was measured; and the relationships among the Pu content of soil, plants, and animals of the Savannah River Plant area were studied. Preliminary results are reported for studies on the biodegradation of waste oil on soil surfaces

  9. Structure of the terrestrial planets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyttleton, R.A.

    1977-01-01

    Recent reviews (cf. Runcorn, 1968; or Cook, 1972, 1975) on the structure of the planets omit reference to the phase-change hypothesis for the nature of the terrestrial core, despite that numerous prior predictions of the theory based on this hypothesis have subsequently been borne out as correct. These reviews also ignore the existence of theoretical calculations of the internal structure of Venus which can be computed with high accuracy by use of the terrestrial seismic data. Several examples of numerous mistakes committed in these reviews are pointed out. (Auth.)

  10. Priapism caused by 'Tribulus terrestris'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campanelli, M; De Thomasis, R; Tenaglia, R L

    2016-01-01

    A 36-year-old Caucasian man was diagnosed with a 72-h-lasting priapism that occurred after the assumption of a Herbal supplement based on Tribulus terrestris, which is becoming increasingly popular for the treatment of sexual dysfunction. The patient underwent a cavernoglandular shunt (Ebbehoj shunt) in order to obtain complete detumescence, from which derived negative post-episode outcomes on sexual function. All patients consuming non-FDA-approved alternative supplements such as Tribulus terrestris should be warned about the possible serious side effects.

  11. Application of Catastrophe Risk Modelling to Evacuation Public Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, G.

    2009-04-01

    The decision by civic authorities to evacuate an area threatened by a natural hazard is especially fraught when the population in harm's way is extremely large, and where there is considerable uncertainty in the spatial footprint, scale, and strike time of a hazard event. Traditionally viewed as a hazard forecasting issue, civil authorities turn to scientists for advice on a potentially imminent dangerous event. However, the level of scientific confidence varies enormously from one peril and crisis situation to another. With superior observational data, meteorological and hydrological hazards are generally better forecast than geological hazards. But even with Atlantic hurricanes, the track and intensity of a hurricane can change significantly within a few hours. This complicated and delayed the decision to call an evacuation of New Orleans when threatened by Hurricane Katrina, and would present a severe dilemma if a major hurricane were appearing to head for New York. Evacuation needs to be perceived as a risk issue, requiring the expertise of catastrophe risk modellers as well as geoscientists. Faced with evidence of a great earthquake in the Indian Ocean in December 2004, seismologists were reluctant to give a tsunami warning without more direct sea observations. Yet, from a risk perspective, the risk to coastal populations would have warranted attempts at tsunami warning, even though there was significant uncertainty in the hazard forecast, and chance of a false alarm. A systematic coherent risk-based framework for evacuation decision-making exists, which weighs the advantages of an evacuation call against the disadvantages. Implicitly and qualitatively, such a cost-benefit analysis is undertaken by civic authorities whenever an evacuation is considered. With the progress in catastrophe risk modelling, such an analysis can be made explicit and quantitative, providing a transparent audit trail for the decision process. A stochastic event set, the core of a

  12. How To Respond to Catastrophic Events in Supply Chain Management

    OpenAIRE

    Choi, Sooyeon

    2011-01-01

    In March of 2011, a massive earthquake and tsunami struck into Japan. Soon after this event, Toyota in the UK announced that their production had to been halted caused by disruption on supply chain relationship with Japan. Like this, a catastrophic event disturbs not only domestic situation but also international business. Supply chain is one of the most affected areas and also capable to control on business at the same time when a disaster occurs. In this work, how to respond supply chain sy...

  13. Catastrophic events leading to de facto limits on liability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solomon, K.A.; Okrent, D.

    1977-05-01

    This study conducts an overview of large technological systems in society to ascertain prevalence, if any, of situations that can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court, thereby imposing de facto limits on liability. Several potential situations are examined: dam rupture, aircraft crash into a sports stadium, chemical plant accident, shipping disaster, and a toxic drug disaster. All of these events are estimated to have probabilities per year similar to or larger than a major nuclear accident and they are found to involve potential liability far exceeding the available resources, such as insurance, corporation assets, or government revenues

  14. Catastrophes and nuclear accidents in the former USSR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robeau, D.

    2001-01-01

    In the former USSR, the nuclear safety, the environment protection and the preservation of workers and population health were not the first priority for the Soviet Union authorities. The fabrication of nuclear weapons, the construction of nuclear submarines and the production of an abundant energy source were the only goals at that time. This book describes and explains the circumstances of the nuclear catastrophes and accidents that have occurred during this era. It tries to estimate their impacts on populations and environment and their possible consequences in a near or far future. (J.S.)

  15. ATR Prohibits Replication Catastrophe by Preventing Global Exhaustion of RPA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toledo Lazaro, Luis Ignacio; Altmeyer, Matthias; Rask, Maj-Britt

    2013-01-01

    origin firing generates an excess of single-stranded DNA that exhausts the nuclear pool of RPA. Partial reduction of RPA accelerated fork breakage, and forced elevation of RPA was sufficient to delay such "replication catastrophe" even in the absence of ATR activity. Conversely, unscheduled origin firing...... induced breakage of stalled forks even in cells with active ATR. Thus, ATR-mediated suppression of dormant origins shields active forks against irreversible breakage via preventing exhaustion of nuclear RPA. This study elucidates how replicating genomes avoid destabilizing DNA damage. Because cancer cells...

  16. The Chernobyl accident, a catastrophe or an eye-opener?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baarli, J.

    1989-01-01

    The Chernobyl accident is reviewed as to its cause, the way it was handled locally and the consequenses from released radioactivity. It is emphasized that the exposure from the released radioactivity, as to the effective dose equivalent and the committed dose equivalent is small and comparable with the dose equivalent from natural ionizing radiation near the accident, and only a few per cent of this value at more remote distances. It is concluded that the accident probably has been one of the greatest psychological catastrophes that we so far has experienced, but not so when referring to early deaths or radiation damage directly to individuals

  17. Cusp catastrophe model for binge drinking in a college population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smerz, Kelly E; Guastello, Stephen J

    2008-04-01

    A cusp catastrophe model for binge drinking behavior was developed and tested with attitude toward alcohol consumption and peer influence as the two control parameters. Similar models were also developed for frequency and quantity of alcohol use. Participants were 1,247 students who completed the Long Form of the Core Alcohol and Drug Survey. The results were strongest for the binge drinking criterion (R(2) = .90), compared to a linear model (R(2) = .34) that is usually associated with the Theory of Planned Behavior or Theory of Reasoned Action. The results have numerous implications for the development of interventions and for future research.

  18. Diversification through Catastrophe Bonds: Lessons from the Subprime Financial Crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Carayannopoulos; M Fabricio Perez

    2015-01-01

    Are catastrophe bonds (CAT bonds) zero-beta investments? Are they a valuable new source of diversification for investors? We study these questions by analysing the dynamic relations of CAT bond returns and the returns of the stock, corporate bond and government bond markets. Our multivariate GARCH model results provide evidence that CAT bonds are zero-beta assets only in non-crisis periods. We document that CAT bonds were not immune to the effects of the recent financial crisis. With the coll...

  19. Catastrophic optical bulk degradation in high-power single- and multi-mode InGaAs-AlGaAs strained QW lasers: part II

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sin, Yongkun; Ayvazian, Talin; Brodie, Miles; Lingley, Zachary

    2018-03-01

    High-power single-mode (SM) and multi-mode (MM) InGaAs-AlGaAs strained quantum well (QW) lasers are critical components for both terrestrial and space satellite communications systems. Since these lasers predominantly fail by catastrophic and sudden degradation due to catastrophic optical damage (COD), it is especially crucial for space satellite applications to investigate reliability, failure modes, precursor signatures of failure, and degradation mechanisms of these lasers. Our group reported a new failure mode in MM and SM InGaAs-AlGaAs strained QW lasers in 2009 and 2016, respectively. Our group also reported in 2017 that bulk failure due to catastrophic optical bulk damage (COBD) is the dominant failure mode of both SM and MM lasers that were subject to long-term life-tests. For the present study, we continued our physics of failure investigation by performing long-term life-tests followed by failure mode analysis (FMA) using nondestructive and destructive micro-analytical techniques. We performed long-term accelerated life-tests on state-of-the-art SM and MM InGaAs- AlGaAs strained QW lasers under ACC mode. Our life-tests have accumulated over 25,000 test hours for SM lasers and over 35,000 test hours for MM lasers. We first employed electron beam induced current (EBIC) technique to identify failure modes of degraded SM lasers by observing dark line defects. All the SM failures that we studied showed catastrophic and sudden degradation and all of these failures were bulk failures. Since degradation mechanisms responsible for COBD are still not well understood, we also employed other techniques including focused ion beam (FIB) and high-resolution TEM to further study dark line defects and dislocations in post-aged lasers. Keywor

  20. Pricing the property claim service (PCS) catastrophe insurance options using gamma distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noviyanti, Lienda; Soleh, Achmad Zanbar; Setyanto, Gatot R.

    2017-03-01

    The catastrophic events like earthquakes, hurricanes or flooding are characteristics for some areas, a properly calculated annual premium would be closely as high as the loss insured. From an actuarial perspective, such events constitute the risk that are not insurable. On the other hand people living in such areas need protection. In order to securitize the catastrophe risk, futures or options based on a loss index could be considered. Chicago Board of Trade launched a new class of catastrophe insurance options based on new indices provided by Property Claim Services (PCS). The PCS-option is based on the Property Claim Service Index (PCS-Index). The index are used to determine and payout in writing index-based insurance derivatives. The objective of this paper is to price PCS Catastrophe Insurance Option based on PCS Catastrophe index. Gamma Distribution is used to estimate PCS Catastrophe index distribution.

  1. Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

    2015-01-01

    A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

  2. Crisis management aspects of bam catastrophic earthquake: review article.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun; Azami-Aghdash, Saber; Kazemi, Abdolhassan; Ziapour, Behrad

    2015-01-01

    Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis management during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran. Data needed for this systematic review were collected through searching PubMed, EMBASE and SID databases, for the period from 2003 to 2011. Keywords included earthquake, Iran and Bam earthquake. The data were summarized and were analyzed using Content Analysis. Out of 422 articles, 25 articles were included in the study. Crisis Management aspects and existing pitfalls were classified into seven categories including planning and organization, human resource management, management of logistics, international humanitarian aids, field performance of the military and security forces, health and medical service provision, and information management. Positive aspects and major pitfalls of crisis management have been introduced in all the mentioned categories. The available evidence indicated poor crisis management during Bam earthquake that resulted in aggravating the losses as well as diminishing the effect of interventions. Thus, concerning the importance of different aspects of the crisis management and the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, the observed vulnerability in disaster management process should be addressed.

  3. Observing a catastrophic thermokarst lake drainage in northern Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Benjamin M.; Arp, Christopher D.

    2015-01-01

    The formation and drainage of thermokarst lakes have reshaped ice-rich permafrost lowlands in the Arctic throughout the Holocene. North of Teshekpuk Lake, on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, thermokarst lakes presently occupy 22.5% of the landscape, and drained thermokarst lake basins occupy 61.8%. Analysis of remotely sensed imagery indicates that nine lakes (>10 ha) have drained in the 1,750 km2 study area between 1955 and 2014. The most recent lake drainage was observed using in situ data loggers providing information on the duration and magnitude of the event, and a nearby weather station provided information on the environmental conditions preceding the lake drainage. Lake 195 (L195), an 80 ha thermokarst lake with an estimated water volume of ~872,000 m3, catastrophically drained on 05 July 2014. Abundant winter snowfall and heavy early summer precipitation resulted in elevated lake water levels that likely promoted bank overtopping, thermo-erosion along an ice-wedge network, and formation of a 9 m wide, 2 m deep, and 70 m long drainage gully. The lake emptied in 36 hours, with 75% of the water volume loss occurring in the first ten hours. The observed peak discharge of the resultant flood was 25 m3/s, which is similar to that in northern Alaska river basins whose areas are more than two orders of magnitude larger. Our findings support the catastrophic nature of sudden lake drainage events and the mechanistic hypotheses developed by J. Ross Mackay.

  4. Zeeman catastrophe machines as a toolkit for teaching chaos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagy, Péter; Tasnádi, Péter

    2014-01-01

    The investigation of chaotic motions and cooperative systems offers a magnificent opportunity to involve modern physics in the basic course of mechanics taught to engineering students. In this paper, it will be demonstrated that the Zeeman machine can be a versatile and motivating tool for students to acquire introductory knowledge about chaotic motion via interactive simulations. The Zeeman catastrophe machine is a typical example of a quasi-static system with hysteresis. It works in a relatively simple way and its properties can be understood very easily. Since the machine can be built easily and the simulation of its movement is also simple, the experimental investigation and the theoretical description can be connected intuitively. Although the Zeeman machine is known mainly for its quasi-static and catastrophic behaviour, its dynamic properties are also of interest with its typical chaotic features. By means of a periodically driven Zeeman machine, a wide range of chaotic properties of the simple systems can be demonstrated, such as bifurcation diagrams, chaotic attractors, transient chaos, Lyapunov exponents and so on. This paper is organically linked to our website (http://csodafizika.hu/zeeman) where the discussed simulation programs can be downloaded. In a second paper, the novel construction of a network of Zeeman machines will be presented to study the properties of cooperative systems. (paper)

  5. Plasma Exchange in the Management of Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitri Titeca-Beauport

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Report of a case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with multiple organ involvement leading to a life-threatening condition despite early combination corticosteroid and heparin therapy. Initiation of plasma exchange led to rapid improvement of the patient’s general condition. Design. Case report. Setting. University teaching hospital medical intensive care unit. Patient. Single case: 52-year-old man hospitalized for catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with cardiac, renal, and cutaneous involvement. Despite early methylprednisolone and heparin therapy, the patient’s condition progressively deteriorated, resulting in acute renal failure, right adrenal hemorrhage, and pulmonary involvement, leading to acute respiratory distress on day 6, requiring high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy with FiO2 of 1.0. Interventions. Plasma exchange was started on day 6. Endpoints and Main Results. A marked improvement of the patient’s general condition was observed after initiation of plasma exchange, with successful weaning of oxygen therapy and normalization of platelet count, troponin, and serum creatinine within four days. Conclusions. This case illustrates the efficacy of plasma exchange in CAPS and the difficulty for physicians to determine the optimal timing of plasma exchange.

  6. Tatra's forests will recover from catastrophe for decades

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haluza, I.

    2004-01-01

    Windy tornado in Tatra's national park (TANAP, High Tatras, Slovakia) at the end of 2004 caused extensive ecological catastrophe and economic losses. Wind has totally damaged the trees in more than one fourth of forest area, which is administrated by state forests of TANAP. Next fourth of forest area has impaired structure. Mostly coniferous forests have fallen down not only in High Tatras, but also in Horehronie, Kysuce, Orava and Spis. According to estimates around 2.5 million cubic meters of wood have lain on the ground in High Tatras. This wood must be precipitately processed. In another regions totally from 800 to 900 thousands cubic meters are overcame by wind. Ecological catastrophe has come in High Tatras. Totally damaged large forests areas need to be recovered for long decades. 90 per cent of annual Slovakian wood cutting represents totally 2.5 million cubic meters. The state will invest in forest recovery from sale of calamity stuff. Reforestation of one hectare of forest costs from 80 to 90 thousands Slovak crowns (∼2666-3000 USD). Another remedies at the age to five years represent from 40 to 50 thousands Slovak crowns (1333-16666 USD). Around 1.6 billion Slovak crown (∼53.333 million USD) will be needed for reforestation of 12 thousands hectares of TANAP

  7. Snow Catastrophe Conditions: What is its Impact on Orthopedic Injuries?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Mardani-Kivi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background:   Iran places sixth amongst high risk natural disaster countries and Guilan province of Iran shoulders a large amount of socio-economic burden due to snow catastrophes. The more knowledge of circumstances we have, the more efficient our future encounters will be. Methods: In this retrospective study, of all of the patients admitted to Poursina Hospital due to snow and ice related trauma in the first two weeks of February 2014, 306 cases were found eligible for entry into the present study. Results: Of the 306 eligible patients (383 injuries, there were 175 men (57.2% and 131 women (42.8%. Most patients suffered from orthopedic injuries (81% and the most common fractures were distal radius fractures in the upper extremities and hip fractures in the lower extremities. Slipping was the most common and motor vehicle accidents had the rarest injury mechanisms. It was shown that the frequency of injuries were higher on icy days (67.6% than snowy days (32.4%. Conclusions: Snow crises may lead to increased risk of slipping and falling situations, especially on icy days. The peak of injury rates is a few days after snowfall with the most common injury being distal radius fracture. Providing essential instructions and supporting resource allocation to better handle such catastrophes may improve outcomes.

  8. A catastrophe model for the prospect-utility theory question.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliva, Terence A; McDade, Sean R

    2008-07-01

    Anomalies have played a big part in the analysis of decision making under risk. Both expected utility and prospect theories were born out of anomalies exhibited by actual decision making behavior. Since the same individual can use both expected utility and prospect approaches at different times, it seems there should be a means of uniting the two. This paper turns to nonlinear dynamical systems (NDS), specifically a catastrophe model, to help suggest an 'out of the box' line of solution toward integration. We use a cusp model to create a value surface whose control dimensions are involvement and gains versus losses. By including 'involvement' as a variable the importance of the individual's psychological state is included, and it provides a rationale for how decision makers' changes from expected utility to prospect might occur. Additionally, it provides a possible explanation for what appears to be even more irrational decisions that individuals make when highly emotionally involved. We estimate the catastrophe model using a sample of 997 gamblers who attended a casino and compare it to the linear model using regression. Hence, we have actual data from individuals making real bets, under real conditions.

  9. Impact of a natural catastrophe on life events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janney, J G; Masuda, M; Holmes, T H

    1977-06-01

    A major earthquake struck Peru in May 1970. This post-quake study compares the impact of this natural catastrophe on the residents of two different cities; one was 90 percent levelled by the quake and one was untouched. A relatively homogeneous population of Peruvians obtained from the two cities completed two paper-and-pencil tests, the Social Readjustment Rating Questionnaire (SRRQ) and the Schedule of Recent Experience (SRE). Both questionnaires were adapted from the SRRQ which had been translated for studies in Spain and EL Salvador. The data from the SRRQ generated two Peruvian Social Readjustment Rating Scales (SRRS), one for each of the cities studied. The differences in the two scales were striking. The lowest intra-cultural correlation yet observed on four studies was obtained. Comparison with a United States population yielded no significant relationships (rs = 0.15), the first time this has occurred in nine intercultural studies. A comparison of the profile of items generated by their subjective magnitude estimations indicated striking qualitative and quantitative differences between the two populations. The SRE generated frequency of occurrence of items and life change magnitudes in five proscribed time intervals. Significant differences in these two quantitative indices (including the health change items) were observed in the two populations in some of the time intervals and not in others. The data formulated suggest that the occurrence of a natural catastrophe--an earthquake which devastated one city--accounted for much of the difference observed between the populations of the two cities.

  10. Catastrophic failure in complex socio-technical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weir, D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper reviews the sequences leading to catastrophic failures in complex socio-technical systems. It traces some of the elements of an analytic framework to that proposed by Beer in Decision and Control, first published in 1966, and argues that these ideas are centrally relevant to a topic on which research interest has developed subsequently, the study of crises, catastrophes and disasters in complex socio-technical systems in high technology sectors. But while the system perspective is central, it is not by itself entirely adequate. The problems discussed cannot be discussed simply in terms of system parameters like variety, redundancy and complexity. Much empirical research supports the view that these systems typically operate in degraded mode. The degradations may be primarily initiated within the social components of the socio-technical system. Such variables as hierarchical position, actors' motivations and intentions are relevant to explain the ways in which communication systems typically operate to filter out messages from lower participants and to ignore the 'soft signals' issuing from small-scale and intermittent malfunctions. (author)

  11. The inherent catastrophic traps in retrograde CTO PCI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Eugene B; Tsuchikane, Etsuo

    2018-05-01

    When we learn to drive, our driving instructor tells us how to check the side mirror and turn your head to check the blind spot before changing lanes. He tells us how to stop at stop signs, how to drive in slippery conditions, the safe stopping distances, and these all make our driving safe. Similarly, when we learn PCI, our mentors teach us to seat the guiding catheter co-axially, to wire the vessel safely, to deliver balloon and stents over the wire, to watch the pressure of the guiding, in order that we perform PCI safely and evade complications. In retrograde CTO PCI, there is no such published teaching. Also many individual mentors have not had the wide experience to see all the possible complications of retrograde CTO PCI and, therefore, may not be able to warn their apprentice. As the number of retrograde procedures increase worldwide, there is a corresponding increase in catastrophic complications, many of which, we as experts, can see are easily avoidable. To breach this gap in knowledge, this article describes 12 commonly met inherent traps in retrograde CTO PCI. They are inherent because by arranging our equipment in the manner to perform retrograde CTO PCI, these complications are either induced directly or happen easily. We hope this work will enhance safety of retrograde CTO PCI and avoid many catastrophic complications for our readers and operators. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Catastrophizing Interferes with Cognitive Modulation of Pain in Women with Fibromyalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellingson, Laura D; Stegner, Aaron J; Schwabacher, Isaac J; Lindheimer, Jacob B; Cook, Dane B

    2018-02-21

    Pain modulation is a critical function of the nociceptive system that includes the ability to engage descending pain control systems to maintain a functional balance between facilitation and inhibition of incoming sensory stimuli. Dysfunctional pain modulation is associated with increased risk for chronic pain and is characteristic of fibromyalgia (FM). Catastrophizing is also common in FM. However, its influence on pain modulation is poorly understood. To determine the role of catastrophizing on central nervous system processing during pain modulation in FM via examining brain responses and pain sensitivity during an attention-distraction paradigm. Twenty FM patients and 18 healthy controls (CO) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while receiving pain stimuli, administered alone and during distracting cognitive tasks. Pain ratings were assessed after each stimulus. Catastrophizing was assessed with the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). The ability to modulate pain during distraction varied among FM patients and was associated with catastrophizing. This was demonstrated by significant positive relationships between PCS scores and pain ratings (P modulation did not differ between FM and CO (P > 0.05). FM patients with higher levels of catastrophizing were less able to distract themselves from pain, indicative of catastrophizing-related impairments in pain modulation. These results suggest that the tendency to catastrophize interacts with attention-resource allocation and may represent a mechanism of chronic pain exacerbation and/or maintenance. Reducing catastrophizing may improve FM symptoms via improving central nervous system regulation of pain.

  13. Canyon formation constraints on the discharge of catastrophic outburst floods of Earth and Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapotre, Mathieu G. A.; Lamb, Michael P.; Williams, Rebecca M. E.

    2016-07-01

    Catastrophic outburst floods carved amphitheater-headed canyons on Earth and Mars, and the steep headwalls of these canyons suggest that some formed by upstream headwall propagation through waterfall erosion processes. Because topography evolves in concert with water flow during canyon erosion, we suggest that bedrock canyon morphology preserves hydraulic information about canyon-forming floods. In particular, we propose that for a canyon to form with a roughly uniform width by upstream headwall retreat, erosion must occur around the canyon head, but not along the sidewalls, such that canyon width is related to flood discharge. We develop a new theory for bedrock canyon formation by megafloods based on flow convergence of large outburst floods toward a horseshoe-shaped waterfall. The model is developed for waterfall erosion by rock toppling, a candidate erosion mechanism in well fractured rock, like columnar basalt. We apply the model to 14 terrestrial (Channeled Scablands, Washington; Snake River Plain, Idaho; and Ásbyrgi canyon, Iceland) and nine Martian (near Ares Vallis and Echus Chasma) bedrock canyons and show that predicted flood discharges are nearly 3 orders of magnitude less than previously estimated, and predicted flood durations are longer than previously estimated, from less than a day to a few months. Results also show a positive correlation between flood discharge per unit width and canyon width, which supports our hypothesis that canyon width is set in part by flood discharge. Despite lower discharges than previously estimated, the flood volumes remain large enough for individual outburst floods to have perturbed the global hydrology of Mars.

  14. Nuclear war and other catastrophes. Civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diebel, Martin

    2017-01-01

    The book civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945 discusses the following issues: aerial defense and the atomic bomb (1945 - 1968), crises and catastrophes in the shadow of the bomb (1962 - 1978), civil defense and the comeback of the (nuclear) war (1976 - 1979), civil defense and the second ''Cold War'' (1979 - 1986), Chernobyl and the end of the Cold War (1979 - 1990), war, catastrophe and safety in the 20th century - a conclusion.

  15. Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations (I): catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervera, R; Tektonidou, M G; Espinosa, G; Cabral, A R; González, E B; Erkan, D; Vadya, S; Adrogué, H E; Solomon, M; Zandman-Goddard, G; Shoenfeld, Y

    2011-02-01

    The objectives of the 'Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations' were to assess the clinical utility of the international consensus statement on classification criteria and treatment guidelines for the catastrophic APS, to identify and grade the studies that analyse the relationship between the antiphospholipid antibodies and the non-criteria APS manifestations and to present the current evidence regarding the accuracy of these non-criteria APS manifestations for the detection of patients with APS. This article summarizes the studies analysed on the catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions, and presents the recommendations elaborated by the Task Force after this analysis.

  16. The Planetary Terrestrial Analogues Library (PTAL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, S. C.; Dypvik, H.; Poulet, F.; Rull Perez, F.; Bibring, J.-P.; Bultel, B.; Casanova Roque, C.; Carter, J.; Cousin, A.; Guzman, A.; Hamm, V.; Hellevang, H.; Lantz, C.; Lopez-Reyes, G.; Manrique, J. A.; Maurice, S.; Medina Garcia, J.; Navarro, R.; Negro, J. I.; Neumann, E. R.; Pilorget, C.; Riu, L.; Sætre, C.; Sansano Caramazana, A.; Sanz Arranz, A.; Sobron Grañón, F.; Veneranda, M.; Viennet, J.-C.; PTAL Team

    2018-04-01

    The Planetary Terrestrial Analogues Library project aims to build and exploit a spectral data base for the characterisation of the mineralogical and geological evolution of terrestrial planets and small solar system bodies.

  17. Terrestrial Steering Group. 2014. Arctic Terrestrial Biodiversity Monitoring Plan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aastrup, Peter; Aronsson, Mora; Barry, Tom

    capacity and information may be currently available and (b) to outline near-term required steps to begin implementing the plan and reporting on an initial set of Arctic terrestrial biodiversity focal ecosystem component attributes. The specific objectives of the workshop were to: Identify key products...... for TSG for the next two years. Identify key components of a pan-Arctic status report for priority focal ecosystem components (FEC) attributes for policy and decision makers. Develop a prioritized set of activities to meet reporting objectives. Identify key milestones and timelines for the successful...... implementation of the Arctic Terrestrial Biodiversity Monitoring Plan for the next two years. Identify expert networks required for successful implementation of the plan. Identify key gaps and opportunities for the TSG related to plan implementation and identify near-term next steps to address gaps....

  18. A ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, X.; Li, D.; Li, G.

    2014-11-01

    In recent years, great disasters happen now and then. Disaster management test the emergency operation ability of the government and society all over the world. Immediately after the occurrence of a great disaster (e.g., earthquake), a massive nationwide rescue and relief operation need to be kicked off instantly. In order to improve the organizations efficiency of the emergency rescue, the organizers need to take charge of the information of the rescuer teams, including the real time location, the equipment with the team, the technical skills of the rescuers, and so on. One of the key factors for the success of emergency operations is the real time location of the rescuers dynamically. Real time tracking methods are used to track the professional rescuer teams now. But volunteers' participation play more and more important roles in great disasters. However, real time tracking of the volunteers will cause many problems, e.g., privacy leakage, expensive data consumption, etc. These problems may reduce the enthusiasm of volunteers' participation for catastrophe rescue. In fact, the great disaster is just small probability event, it is not necessary to track the volunteers (even rescuer teams) every time every day. In order to solve this problem, a ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue is presented in this paper. In this method, the handheld devices using GPS technology to provide the location of the users, e.g., smart phone, is used as the positioning equipment; an emergency tracking information database including the ID of the ground moving target (including the rescuer teams and volunteers), the communication number of the handheld devices with the moving target, and the usually living region, etc., is built in advance by registration; when catastrophe happens, the ground moving targets that living close to the disaster area will be filtered by the usually living region; then the activation short message will be sent to the selected

  19. ATR prohibits replication catastrophe by preventing global exhaustion of RPA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toledo, Luis Ignacio; Altmeyer, Matthias; Rask, Maj-Britt; Lukas, Claudia; Larsen, Dorthe Helena; Povlsen, Lou Klitgaard; Bekker-Jensen, Simon; Mailand, Niels; Bartek, Jiri; Lukas, Jiri

    2013-11-21

    ATR, activated by replication stress, protects replication forks locally and suppresses origin firing globally. Here, we show that these functions of ATR are mechanistically coupled. Although initially stable, stalled forks in ATR-deficient cells undergo nucleus-wide breakage after unscheduled origin firing generates an excess of single-stranded DNA that exhausts the nuclear pool of RPA. Partial reduction of RPA accelerated fork breakage, and forced elevation of RPA was sufficient to delay such "replication catastrophe" even in the absence of ATR activity. Conversely, unscheduled origin firing induced breakage of stalled forks even in cells with active ATR. Thus, ATR-mediated suppression of dormant origins shields active forks against irreversible breakage via preventing exhaustion of nuclear RPA. This study elucidates how replicating genomes avoid destabilizing DNA damage. Because cancer cells commonly feature intrinsically high replication stress, this study also provides a molecular rationale for their hypersensitivity to ATR inhibitors. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Nuclear war and climatic catastrophe: Some policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sagan, C.

    1986-01-01

    Apocalyptic prediction require, to be taken seriously, higher standards of evidence than do assertions on other matters where the stakes are not as great. Since the immediate effects of even a single hermonuclear weapon explosion are so devastating, it is natural to assume - even without considering detailed mechanism - that the more or less simultaneous explosion of 10,000 such weapons all over the Northern Hemisphere might have unpredictable and catastrophic consequences. And yet, while it is widely accepted that a full nuclear war might mean the end of civilization at least in the Northern Hemisphere, claims that nuclear war might imply a reversion of the human population to prehistoric levels, or even the extinction of the human species, have, among some policymakers at least, been dismissed as alarmist or, worse, irrelevant

  1. Catastrophes in nature and society mathematical modeling of complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Khlebopros, Rem G; Fet, Abram I

    2007-01-01

    Many people are concerned about crises leading to disasters in nature, in social and economic life. The book offers a popular account of the causative mechanisms of critical states and breakdown in a broad range of natural and cultural systems - which obey the same laws - and thus makes the reader aware of the origin of catastrophic events and the ways to avoid and mitigate their negative consequences. The authors apply a single mathematical approach to investigate the revolt of cancer cells that destroy living organisms and population outbreaks that upset natural ecosystems, the balance between biosphere and global climate interfered lately by industry, the driving mechanisms of market and related economic and social phenomena, as well as the electoral system the proper use of which is an arduous accomplishment of democracy.

  2. Correlated network of networks enhances robustness against catastrophic failures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, Byungjoon; Zheng, Muhua

    2018-01-01

    Networks in nature rarely function in isolation but instead interact with one another with a form of a network of networks (NoN). A network of networks with interdependency between distinct networks contains instability of abrupt collapse related to the global rule of activation. As a remedy of the collapse instability, here we investigate a model of correlated NoN. We find that the collapse instability can be removed when hubs provide the majority of interconnections and interconnections are convergent between hubs. Thus, our study identifies a stable structure of correlated NoN against catastrophic failures. Our result further suggests a plausible way to enhance network robustness by manipulating connection patterns, along with other methods such as controlling the state of node based on a local rule.

  3. Hypokalemia-associated catastrophic rhabdomyolysis in ulcerative colitis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tzvetanov, G.

    2009-01-01

    A case of catastrophic hypokalemia-associated rhabdomyolysis in patient with ulcerative colitis (UC) is reported. A 60-year-old man presented with an exacerbation of UC and hypokalemia due to long-term diarrhea. While in the hospital, rhabdomyolysis developed in association with worsening hypokalemia. The hypokalemia was refractory to treatment and progressive course. Patient developed painful cramps of the masticatory and facial musculature associated with a moderated weakness in distal muscle groups. The weakness extended to intercostals and diaphragm muscles and led to respiratory deficiency. Serum concentration of creatine kinase was highly increased. Patient died from advancing and insurmountable cardiovascular deficiency. The causative role of hypokalemia for muscle involvement and rhabdomyolysis in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases was discussed. (author)

  4. Carbon: change of climate, but no worldwide catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grassl, H; Kempe, S; Spitzy, A

    1981-03-21

    The combustion of nearly all available coal, petroleum and natural gas supplies in the next 150 years which has been formed over 600 million years of earth's history, has resulted in man starting the largest conceivable geochemical experiment, without knowing whether and how the hence increased CO/sub 2/ content of the atmosphere is going to alter the climate. Predictions of the time change of the climate and its influence on the food basis are very hard to make. The authors working at the International Carbon Centre at Hamburg within the framework of the SCOPE/UNEP program analyze various climate models and conclude that the changing climate with or without CO/sub 2/ will cause costs in industrial countries as well as catastrophes in the development countries.

  5. Improving Catastrophe Modeling for Business Interruption Insurance Needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Adam; Huyck, Charles K

    2016-10-01

    While catastrophe (CAT) modeling of property damage is well developed, modeling of business interruption (BI) lags far behind. One reason is the crude nature of functional relationships in CAT models that translate property damage into BI. Another is that estimating BI losses is more complicated because it depends greatly on public and private decisions during recovery with respect to resilience tactics that dampen losses by using remaining resources more efficiently to maintain business function and to recover more quickly. This article proposes a framework for improving hazard loss estimation for BI insurance needs. Improved data collection that allows for analysis at the level of individual facilities within a company can improve matching the facilities with the effectiveness of individual forms of resilience, such as accessing inventories, relocating operations, and accelerating repair, and can therefore improve estimation accuracy. We then illustrate the difference this can make in a case study example of losses from a hurricane. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Semi-classical approximation to path integrals - phases and catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levit, S.

    1977-01-01

    Problems of phases and catastrophes were encountered when trying to apply the classical S-matrix theory to the scattering phenomena in nuclear physics. The path integral formulation provided a suitable basis for the treatment of these and related problems. Within conventional mathematical language it was possible to give practical prescriptions and discuss their limitations. Since the semi-classical (stationary phase) approximation is commonly used in any application of the path integral method, the results are not restricted to the scattering problems and may be of general interest. The derivation of the uniform approximations in the energy representation should use the exact path integral expression as the starting point, rather than performing Fourier transforms on the expressions derived in the present lecture. (B.G.)

  7. On the governance of global and catastrophic risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael Havbro

    2011-01-01

    The focus of the present paper regards the identification and treatment of critical issues in the process of societal decision making concerning management of global and catastrophic risks. Taking basis in recent works by the author, the paper in particular addresses: 1) Which are the most relevant...... hazards in a holistic global perspective and how may these be categorised in view of strategies for their treatment?; 2) How might robust societal decisions on risk management subject to large uncertainties be formally supported?; 3) How may available economic resources be prioritised for the purpose...... of sustainable and global life safety and health improvements? Finally, new results and perspectives are presented on the issue of allocation of resources for the purpose of improving global public health and a discussion on global risk governance concludes the paper....

  8. From teosinte to maize: the catastrophic sexual transmutation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iltis, H H

    1983-11-25

    An alternative to the theory that the ear of maize (Zea mays ssp. mays) evolved from a slender female ear of a Mexican annual teosinte holds that it was derived from the central spike of a male teosinte inflorescence (tassel) which terminates the primary lateral branches. This alternative hypothesis is more consistent with morphology and explains the anomalous lack of significant genetic and biochemical differences between these taxa. Maize, the only cereal with unisexual inflorescences, evolved through a sudden epigenetic sexual transmutation involving condensation of primary branches, which brought their tassels into the zone of female expression, leading to strong apical dominance and a catastrophic shift in nutrient allocation. Initially, this quantum change may have involved no new mutations, but rather genetic assimilation under human selection of an abnormality, perhaps environmentally triggered.

  9. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome. Case report and literature review

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Carpio-Orantes, Luis; Martínez-Anaya, Chantall Citlally; Bonilla-Casas, Elías

    2017-01-01

    The present document is the report of a case of a very rare clinical entity, which presents with acute multiorganic failure after a thrombotic storm related to antiphospholipid antibodies, the so-called catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, which began as a recurrent picture of mesenteric thrombosis, with a previous history of venous insufficiency and distal ulcers probably associated with an unidentified antiphospholipid; deserving management in intensive care and the consultation by the world expert, Dr. Ricard Cervera who confirmed the diagnosis and recommend treating as such entity, the patient's evolution was satisfactory so far. Final recommendations for diagnosis and current treatment options such as rituximab or eculizumab are made. The present case was added to the international registry that currently houses around 500 cases worldwide (International CAPS Registry). Copyright: © 2017 SecretarÍa de Salud

  10. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome Presenting as Bilateral Central Retinal Artery Occlusions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven S. Saraf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A previously healthy 22-year-old African American woman presented with bilateral vision loss associated with headache. Her ocular examination was significant for bilateral retinal arterial “boxcarring,” retinal whitening, retinal hemorrhages, and cherry red spots. She was diagnosed with bilateral central retinal artery occlusions and was hospitalized due to concomitant diagnosis of stroke and hypercoagulable state. She was also found to be in heart failure and kidney failure. Rheumatology was consulted and she was diagnosed with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in association with systemic lupus erythematosus. Approximately 7 months after presentation, the patient’s vision improved and remained stable at 20/200 and 20/80.

  11. Catastrophe Insurance Modeled by Shot-Noise Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thorsten Schmidt

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Shot-noise processes generalize compound Poisson processes in the following way: a jump (the shot is followed by a decline (noise. This constitutes a useful model for insurance claims in many circumstances; claims due to natural disasters or self-exciting processes exhibit similar features. We give a general account of shot-noise processes with time-inhomogeneous drivers inspired by recent results in credit risk. Moreover, we derive a number of useful results for modeling and pricing with shot-noise processes. Besides this, we obtain some highly tractable examples and constitute a useful modeling tool for dynamic claims processes. The results can in particular be used for pricing Catastrophe Bonds (CAT bonds, a traded risk-linked security. Additionally, current results regarding the estimation of shot-noise processes are reviewed.

  12. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (Ronald Asherson syndrome) and obstetric pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makatsariya, Alexander D; Khizroeva, Jamilya; Bitsadze, Viktoriya O

    2018-05-24

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is an uncommon, often fatal, variant of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) that results in a widespread coagulopathy and high titres of antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) and affects predominantly small vessels supplying organs with the development of multiorgan failure. It remains unclear why some patients develop the typical clinical picture of APS (thrombosis of large vessels), whereas others show the development of progressive microthrombosis, which the authors called "thrombotic storm" and multiple organ failure, that is, CAPS. Since 2001-2016, we discovered 17 patients with CAPS development. CAPS is life-threatening condition, but optimal treatment for CAPS is not developed yet and the mortality rate is as high as 30%-40%.

  13. Heckling the Catastrophe. On the Holocaust Literary Criticism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Wolski

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses a special kind of narrative about the catastrophe, treated as a specific genre of writing: the theory of literature of the Holocaust. The article presents its two most significant (although not the only ones features: firstly, the conviction about its unusual character as compared to other genres/forms of writing, sometimes secretly described by such concepts as the uniqueness of the Holocaust (which metonymizes not only the event itself but also the narrations referring to it and, secondly, identifies all text-producing entities (narrator, author etc., simultaneously constituting the basic feature of the most important genre/modality of this kind of writing which is testimony. The article presents the examples of Polish and foreign scholars portraying this state of affairs.

  14. Impact of the Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act on nursing homes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laliberte, L; Mor, V; Berg, K; Intrator, O; Calore, K; Hiris, J

    1997-01-01

    The Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act (MCCA) of 1988 altered eligibility and coverage for skilled nursing facility (SNF) care and changed Medicaid eligibility rules for nursing-home residents. Detailed data on the residents of a for-profit nursing-home chain and Medicare claims for a 1 percent sample of beneficiaries were used to examine the impact of the MCCA on nursing homes. The case mix of nursing-home admissions was scrutinized, specifically for length of stay, discharge disposition, rate of hospitalization, and changes in payer source. Findings revealed that, although the proportion of Medicare-financed nursing-home care increased, as did the case-mix severity of residents during the MCCA period, there was no corollary reduction in hospital use by nursing-home residents.

  15. Catastrophic valley fills record large Himalayan earthquakes, Pokhara, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolle, Amelie; Bernhardt, Anne; Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2017-12-01

    Uncertain timing and magnitudes of past mega-earthquakes continue to confound seismic risk appraisals in the Himalayas. Telltale traces of surface ruptures are rare, while fault trenches document several events at best, so that additional proxies of strong ground motion are needed to complement the paleoseismological record. We study Nepal's Pokhara basin, which has the largest and most extensively dated archive of earthquake-triggered valley fills in the Himalayas. These sediments form a 148-km2 fan that issues from the steep Seti Khola gorge in the Annapurna Massif, invading and plugging 15 tributary valleys with tens of meters of debris, and impounding several lakes. Nearly a dozen new radiocarbon ages corroborate at least three episodes of catastrophic sedimentation on the fan between ∼700 and ∼1700 AD, coinciding with great earthquakes in ∼1100, 1255, and 1344 AD, and emplacing roughly >5 km3 of debris that forms the Pokhara Formation. We offer a first systematic sedimentological study of this formation, revealing four lithofacies characterized by thick sequences of mid-fan fluvial conglomerates, debris-flow beds, and fan-marginal slackwater deposits. New geochemical provenance analyses reveal that these upstream dipping deposits of Higher Himalayan origin contain lenses of locally derived river clasts that mark time gaps between at least three major sediment pulses that buried different parts of the fan. The spatial pattern of 14C dates across the fan and the provenance data are key to distinguishing these individual sediment pulses, as these are not evident from their sedimentology alone. Our study demonstrates how geomorphic and sedimentary evidence of catastrophic valley infill can help to independently verify and augment paleoseismological fault-trench records of great Himalayan earthquakes, while offering unparalleled insights into their long-term geomorphic impacts on major drainage basins.

  16. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, M.

    2008-07-01

    The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities. From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets. In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-)insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles), and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions. This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  17. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gruber

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities.

    From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets.

    In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles, and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions.

    This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  18. Dynamic growth of slip surfaces in catastrophic landslides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germanovich, Leonid N; Kim, Sihyun; Puzrin, Alexander M

    2016-01-01

    This work considers a landslide caused by the shear band that emerges along the potential slip (rupture) surface. The material above the band slides downwards, causing the band to grow along the slope. This growth may first be stable (progressive), but eventually becomes dynamic (catastrophic). The landslide body acquires a finite velocity before it separates from the substrata. The corresponding initial-boundary value problem for a dynamic shear band is formulated within the framework of Palmer & Rice's ( Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 332 , 527-548. (doi:10.1098/rspa.1973.0040)) approach, which is generalized to the dynamic case. We obtain the exact, closed-form solution for the band velocity and slip rate. This solution assesses when the slope fails owing to a limiting condition near the propagating tip of the shear band. Our results are applicable to both submarine and subaerial landslides of this type. It appears that neglecting dynamic (inertia) effects can lead to a significant underestimation of the slide size, and that the volumes of catastrophic slides can exceed the volumes of progressive slides by nearly a factor of 2. As examples, we consider the Gaviota and Humboldt slides offshore of California, and discuss landslides in normally consolidated sediments and sensitive clays. In particular, it is conceivable that Humboldt slide is unfinished and may still displace a large volume of sediments, which could generate a considerable tsunami. We show that in the case of submarine slides, the effect of water resistance on the shear band dynamics may frequently be limited during the slope failure stage. For a varying slope angle, we formulate a condition of slide cessation.

  19. Spatial vision in Bombus terrestris

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aravin eChakravarthi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Bombus terrestris is one of the most commonly used insect models to investigate visually guided behavior and spatial vision in particular. Two fundamental measures of spatial vision are spatial resolution and contrast sensitivity. In this study, we report the threshold of spatial resolution in B. terrestris and characterize the contrast sensitivity function of the bumblebee visual system for a dual choice discrimination task. We trained bumblebees in a Y-maze experimental set-up to associate a vertical sinusoidal grating with a sucrose reward, and a horizontal grating with absence of a reward. Using a logistic psychometric function, we estimated a resolution threshold of 0.21 cycles deg-1 of visual angle. This resolution is in the same range but slightly lower than that found in honeybees (Apis mellifera and A. cerana and another bumblebee species (B. impatiens. We also found that the contrast sensitivity of B. terrestris was 1.57 for the spatial frequency 0.09 cycles deg-1 and 1.26. for 0.18 cycles deg-1.

  20. Applying Catastrophe Theory to an Information-Processing Model of Problem Solving in Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Tsaparlis, Georgios

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we test an information-processing model (IPM) of problem solving in science education, namely the working memory overload model, by applying catastrophe theory. Changes in students' achievement were modeled as discontinuities within a cusp catastrophe model, where working memory capacity was implemented as asymmetry and the degree…

  1. Catastrophizing and perceived injustice: risk factors for the transition to chronicity after whiplash injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Michael J L; Adams, Heather; Martel, Marc-Olivier; Scott, Whitney; Wideman, Timothy

    2011-12-01

    The article will summarize research that has supported the role of pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice as risk factors for problematic recovery after whiplash injury. This article focuses on two psychological variables that have been shown to impact on recovery trajectories after whiplash injury; namely pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice. Research has shown that psychological variables play a role in determining the trajectory of recovery after whiplash injury. This article will focus on two psychological variables that have been shown to impact on recovery trajectories after whiplash injury; namely pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice. The article will summarize research that has supported the role of pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice as risk factors for problematic recovery after whiplash injury. Several investigations have shown that measures of catastrophizing and perceived injustice prospectively predict problematic trajectories of recovery after whiplash injury. Basic research points to the potential roles of expectancies, attention, coping and endogenous opioid dysregulation as possible avenues through which catastrophizing might heighten the probability of the persistence of pain after whiplash injury. Although research has yet to systematically address the mechanisms by which perceived injustice might contribute to prolonged disability in individuals with whiplash injuries, there are grounds for suggesting the potential contributions of catastrophizing, pain behavior and anger. A challenge for future research will be the development and evaluation of risk factor-targeted interventions aimed at reducing catastrophizing and perceived injustice to improve recovery trajectories after whiplash injury.

  2. Should catastrophic risks be included in a regulated competitive health insurance market?

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Ven, W P; Schut, F T

    1994-11-01

    In 1988 the Dutch government launched a proposal for a national health insurance based on regulated competition. The mandatory benefits package should be offered by competing insurers and should cover both non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care, physician services and drugs) and catastrophic risks (like several forms of expensive long-term care). However, there are two arguments to exclude some of the catastrophic risks from the competitive insurance market, at least during the implementation process of the reforms. Firstly, the prospects for a workable system of risk-adjusted payments to the insurers that should take away the incentives for cream skimming are, at least during the next 5 years, more favorable for the non-catastrophic risks than for the catastrophic risks. Secondly, even if a workable system of risk-adjusted payments can be developed, the problem of quality skimping may be relevant for some of the catastrophic risks, but not for non-catastrophic risks. By 'quality skimping' we mean the reduction of the quality of care to a level which is below the minimum level that is acceptable to society. After 5 years of health care reforms in the Netherlands new insights have resulted in a growing support to confine the implementation of the reforms to the non-catastrophic risks. In drawing (and redrawing) the exact boundaries between different regulatory regimes for catastrophic and non-catastrophic risks, the expected benefits of a cost-effective substitution of care have to be weighted against the potential harm caused by cream skimming and quality skimping.

  3. Precursory landforms and geologic structures of catastrophic landslides induced by typhoon Talas 2011 Japan (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chigira, M.; Matsushi, Y.; Tsou, C.

    2013-12-01

    Our experience of catastrophic landslides induced by rainstorms and earthquakes in recent years suggests that many of them are preceded by deep-seated gravitational slope deformation. Deep-seated gravitational slope deformation continues slowly and continually and some of them transform into catastrophic failures, which cause devastating damage in wide areas. Some other types, however, do not change into catastrophic failure. Deep-seated gravitational slope deformation that preceded catastrophic failures induced by typhoon Talas 2011 Japan, had been surveyed with airborne laser scanner beforehand, of which high-resolution DEMs gave us an important clue to identify which type of topographic features of gravitational slope deformation is susceptible to catastrophic failure. We found that 26 of 39 deep-seated catastrophic landslides had small scarps along the heads of future landslides. These scarps were caused by gravitational slope deformation that preceded the catastrophic failure. Although the scarps may have been enlarged by degradation, their sizes relative to the whole slopes suggest that minimal slope deformation had occurred in the period immediately before the catastrophic failure. The scarp ratio, defined as the ratio of length of a scarp to that of the whole slope both measured along the slope line, ranged from 1% to 23%. 38% of the landslides with small scarps had scarp ratios less than 4%, and a half less than 8%. This fact suggests that the gravitational slope deformation preceded catastrophic failure was relatively small and may suggest that those slopes were under critical conditions just before catastrophic failure. The above scarp ratios may be characteristic to accretional complex with undulating, anastomosing thrust faults, which were major sliding surfaces of the typhoon-induced landslides. Eleven of the remaining 13 landslides occurred in landslide scars of previous landslides or occurred as an extension of landslide scars at the lower parts of

  4. Nuclear catastrophe in Japan. Health consequences resulting from Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulitz, Henrik; Eisenberg, Winfrid; Thiel, Reinhold

    2013-01-01

    On 11 March 2011, a nuclear catastrophe occurred at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in Japan in the wake of an earthquake and due to serious safety deficiencies. This resulted in a massive and prolonged release of radioactive fission and decay products. Approximately 20% of the radioactive substances released into the atmosphere have led to the contamination of the landmass of Japan with 17,000 becquerels per square meter of cesium-137 and a comparable quantity of cesium-134. The initial health consequences of the nuclear catastrophe are already now, after only two years, scientifically verifiable. Similar to the case of Chernobyl, a decline in the birth rate was documented nine months after the nuclear catastrophe. Throughout Japan, the total drop in number of births in December 2011 was 4362, with the Fukushima Prefecture registering a decline of 209 births. Japan also experienced a rise in infant mortality, with 75 more children dying in their first year of life than expected statistically. In the Fukushima Prefecture alone, some 55,592 children were diagnosed with thyroid gland nodules or cysts. In contrast to cysts and nodules found in adults, these findings in children must be classified as precancerous. There were also the first documented cases in Fukushima of thyroid cancer in children. The present document undertakes three assessments of the expected incidence of cancer resulting from external exposure to radiation. These are based on publications in scientific journals on soil contamination in 47 prefectures in Japan, the average total soil contamination, and, in the third case, on local dose rate measurements in the fall of 2012. Taking into consideration the shielding effect of buildings, the medical organization IPPNW has calculated the collective lifetime doses for individuals at 94,749 manSv, 206,516 manSv, and 118,171 manSv, respectively. In accordance with the risk factors set by the European Committee on Radiation Risk (ECRR) for death

  5. Groundwater and Terrestrial Water Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodell, Matthew; Chambers, Don P.; Famiglietti, James S.

    2014-01-01

    Terrestrial water storage (TWS) comprises groundwater, soil moisture, surface water, snow,and ice. Groundwater typically varies more slowly than the other TWS components because itis not in direct contact with the atmosphere, but often it has a larger range of variability onmultiannual timescales (Rodell and Famiglietti, 2001; Alley et al., 2002). In situ groundwaterdata are only archived and made available by a few countries. However, monthly TWSvariations observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE; Tapley et al.,2004) satellite mission, which launched in 2002, are a reasonable proxy for unconfinedgroundwater at climatic scales.

  6. Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

    OpenAIRE

    Taub, Chloe J.; Sturgeon, John A.; Johnson, Kevin A.; Mackey, Sean C.; Darnall, Beth D.

    2017-01-01

    Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic l...

  7. Comparative Climatology of Terrestrial Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackwell, Stephen J.; Simon-Miller, Amy A.; Harder, Jerald W.; Bullock, Mark A.

    Public awareness of climate change on Earth is currently very high, promoting significant interest in atmospheric processes. We are fortunate to live in an era where it is possible to study the climates of many planets, including our own, using spacecraft and groundbased observations as well as advanced computational power that allows detailed modeling. Planetary atmospheric dynamics and structure are all governed by the same basic physics. Thus differences in the input variables (such as composition, internal structure, and solar radiation) among the known planets provide a broad suite of natural laboratory settings for gaining new understanding of these physical processes and their outcomes. Diverse planetary settings provide insightful comparisons to atmospheric processes and feedbacks on Earth, allowing a greater understanding of the driving forces and external influences on our own planetary climate. They also inform us in our search for habitable environments on planets orbiting distant stars, a topic that was a focus of Exoplanets, the preceding book in the University of Arizona Press Space Sciences Series. Quite naturally, and perhaps inevitably, our fascination with climate is largely driven toward investigating the interplay between the early development of life and the presence of a suitable planetary climate. Our understanding of how habitable planets come to be begins with the worlds closest to home. Venus, Earth, and Mars differ only modestly in their mass and distance from the Sun, yet their current climates could scarcely be more divergent. Our purpose for this book is to set forth the foundations for this emerging science and to bring to the forefront our current understanding of atmospheric formation and climate evolution. Although there is significant comparison to be made to atmospheric processes on nonterrestrial planets in our solar system — the gas and ice giants — here we focus on the terrestrial planets, leaving even broader comparisons

  8. Catastrophizing and Depressive Symptoms as Prospective Predictors of Outcomes Following Total Knee Replacement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert R Edwards

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Several recent reports suggest that pain-related catastrophizing is a risk factor for poor acute pain outcomes following surgical interventions. However, it has been less clear whether levels of catastrophizing influence longer-term postoperative outcomes. Data were analyzed from a relatively small number (n=43 of patients who underwent total knee replacement and were followed for 12 months after their surgery. Previous research has suggested that high levels of both catastrophizing and depression are associated with elevated acute postoperative pain complaints among patients undergoing knee surgery. In this sample, catastrophizing and depression at each of the assessment points were studied as prospective predictors of pain (both global pain ratings and pain at night at the subsequent assessment point over the course of one year. The predictive patterns differed somewhat across measures of pain reporting; depressive symptoms were unique predictors of greater global pain complaints, while catastrophizing was a specific and unique predictor of elevated nighttime pain. While surgical outcomes following total knee replacement are, on average, quite good, a significant minority of patients continue to experience long-term pain. The present findings suggest that high levels of catastrophizing and depression may promote enhanced pain levels, indicating that interventions designed to reduce catastrophizing and depressive symptoms may have the potential to further improve joint replacement outcomes.

  9. Catastrophic household expenditure on health in Nepal: a cross-sectional survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Eiko; Gilmour, Stuart; Rahman, Md Mizanur; Gautam, Ghan Shyam; Shrestha, Pradeep Krishna; Shibuya, Kenji

    2014-10-01

    To determine the incidence of - and illnesses commonly associated with - catastrophic household expenditure on health in Nepal. We did a cross-sectional population-based survey in five municipalities of Kathmandu Valley between November 2011 and January 2012. For each household surveyed, out-of-pocket spending on health in the previous 30 days that exceeded 10% of the household's total expenditure over the same period was considered to be catastrophic. We estimated the incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure. We identified the illnesses most commonly associated with such expenditure using a Poisson regression model and assessed the distribution of expenditure by economic quintile of households using the concentration index. Overall, 284 of the 1997 households studied in Kathmandu, i.e. 13.8% after adjustment by sampling weight, reported catastrophic health expenditure in the 30 days before the survey. After adjusting for confounders, this expenditure was found to be associated with injuries, particularly those resulting from road traffic accidents. Catastrophic expenditure by households in the poorest quintile were associated with at least one episode of diabetes, asthma or heart disease. In an urban area of Nepal, catastrophic household expenditure on health was mostly associated with injuries and noncommunicable diseases such as diabetes and asthma. Throughout Nepal, interventions for the control and management of noncommunicable diseases and the prevention of road traffic accidents should be promoted. A phased introduction of health insurance should also reduce the incidence of catastrophic household expenditure.

  10. Electrical streaming potential precursors to catastrophic earthquakes in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Qian

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The majority of anomalies in self-potential at 7 stations within 160 km from the epicentre showed a similar pattern of rapid onset and slow decay during and before the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake of 1976. Considering that some of these anomalies associated with episodical spouting from boreholes or the increase in pore pressure in wells, observed anomalies are streaming potential generated by local events of sudden movements and diffusion process of high-pressure fluid in parallel faults. These transient events triggered by tidal forces exhibited a periodic nature and the statistical phenomenon to migrate towards the epicentre about one month before the earthquake. As a result of events, the pore pressure reached its final equilibrium state and was higher than that in the initial state in a large enough section of the fault region. Consequently, local effective shear strength of the material in the fault zone decreased and finally the catastrophic earthquake was induced. Similar phenomena also occurred one month before the M 7.3 Haichen earthquake of 1975. Therefore, a short term earthquake prediction can be made by electrical measurements, which are the kind of geophysical measurements most closely related to pore fluid behaviors of the deep crust.

  11. Supersymmetric and non-supersymmetric models without catastrophic Goldstone bosons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braathen, Johannes; Goodsell, Mark D. [LPTHE, UPMC Univ. Paris 6, Sorbonne Universites, Paris (France); LPTHE, CNRS, Paris (France); Staub, Florian [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Theoretical Physics (ITP), Karlsruhe (Germany); Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Nuclear Physics (IKP), Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany)

    2017-11-15

    The calculation of the Higgs mass in general renormalisable field theories has been plagued by the so-called ''Goldstone Boson Catastrophe'', where light (would-be) Goldstone bosons give infra-red divergent loop integrals. In supersymmetric models, previous approaches included a workaround that ameliorated the problem for most, but not all, parameter space regions; while giving divergent results everywhere for non-supersymmetric models. We present an implementation of a general solution to the problem in the public code SARAH, along with new calculations of some necessary loop integrals and generic expressions. We discuss the validation of our code in the Standard Model, where we find remarkable agreement with the known results. We then show new applications in Split SUSY, the NMSSM, the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model, and the Georgi-Machacek model. In particular, we take some first steps to exploring where the habit of using tree-level mass relations in non-supersymmetric models breaks down, and show that the loop corrections usually become very large well before naive perturbativity bounds are reached. (orig.)

  12. Fold catastrophe model of dynamic pillar failure in asymmetric mining

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yue Pan; Ai-wu Li; Yun-song Qi [Qingdao Technological University, Qingdao (China). College of Civil Engineering

    2009-01-15

    A rock burst disaster not only destroys the pit facilities and results in economic loss but it also threatens the life of the miners. Pillar rock burst has a higher frequency of occurrence in the pit compared to other kinds of rock burst. Understanding the cause, magnitude and prevention of pillar rock burst is a significant undertaking. Equations describing the bending moment and displacement of the rock beam in asymmetric mining have been deduced for simplified asymmetric beam-pillar systems. Using the symbolic operation software MAPLE 9.5 a catastrophe model of the dynamic failure of an asymmetric rock-beam pillar system has been established. The differential form of the total potential function deduced from the law of conservation of energy was used for this deduction. The critical conditions and the initial and final positions of the pillar during failure have been given in analytical form. The amount of elastic energy released by the rock beam at the instant of failure is determined as well. A diagrammatic form showing the pillar failure was plotted using MATLAB software. This graph contains a wealth of information and is important for understanding the behavior during each deformation phase of the rock-beam pillar system. The graphic also aids in distinguishing the equivalent stiffness of the rock beam in different directions. 11 refs., 8 figs.

  13. Quantifying the hurricane catastrophe risk to offshore wind power.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J; Apt, Jay

    2013-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100-year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10-year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Topographic stress and catastrophic collapse of volcanic islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, S.; Perron, J. T.; Martel, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    Flank collapse of volcanic islands can devastate coastal environments and potentially induce tsunamis. Previous studies have suggested that factors such as volcanic eruption events, gravitational spreading, the reduction of material strength due to hydrothermal alteration, steep coastal cliffs, or sea level change may contribute to slope instability and induce catastrophic collapse of volcanic flanks. In this study, we examine the potential influence of three-dimensional topographic stress perturbations on flank collapses of volcanic islands. Using a three-dimensional boundary element model, we calculate subsurface stress fields for the Canary and Hawaiian islands to compare the effects of stratovolcano and shield volcano shapes on topographic stresses. Our model accounts for gravitational stresses from the actual shapes of volcanic islands, ambient stress in the underlying plate, and the influence of pore water pressure. We quantify the potential for slope failure of volcanic flanks using a combined model of three-dimensional topographic stress and slope stability. The results of our analysis show that subsurface stress fields vary substantially depending on the shapes of volcanoes, and can influence the size and spatial distribution of flank failures.

  15. WHO's new recommendations about iodine prophylaxis at nuclear catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paile, Wendla

    1999-01-01

    WHO has prepared new advice about using stable iodine as protection against emission of radioactive iodine from nuclear catastrophes. The experiences from Chernobyl show that the risk for thyroid gland cancer after emission of radio-iodine is significant. The risk of serious side effects of stable iodine as single dose is stated to be minimal. Stable iodine is a safe, effective remedy for protecting the thyroid gland against radioactive iodine. It is recommended to adjust different criteria for iodine prophylaxis for new-born, children, young people and adults older than 40 years. For children of the age up to 18 years iodine prophylaxis should be considered at 10 mGy thyroid gland doses, and for young adults at 100 mGy. For adults of 40 years or more the cancer risk of radioactive iodine is very low and iodine prophylaxis is unnecessary provided that the expected does not exceed 5 Gy. The new information about risk and advantage must be considered in planning for distribution and storage of stable iodine. WHO also commends that everybody has the possibility to buy it in a pharmacy. (EHS)

  16. Chernobyl catastrophe and establishment of civil society in Ukraine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scherbak, Yuri

    2013-01-01

    Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine described secret exhibition for Chernobyl accident and a civil movement called the Green World movement. Chernobyl accident had also a great impact on the government and society in such totalitarian state as the Soviet Union was in 1986. Soviet authorities took unprecedented measures to block any information about the nature of explosion levels and number of victims. In 1987, a group of writers and scientists from the Academy of Science of Ukraine established 'Green World'. Green World received serious support from the quasi-nongovernmental organization. The main principles of the Green World were the following: (1) the primacy of environment over economy and politics; (2) democracy and full transparency in environmental issues; (3) all-people's participation in solving environmental issues; (4) combination of scientific and humanistic principles; (5) environmentalization of education and awareness-raising. The author was elected a member of the Soviet Union Parliament, and head of the Subcommittee for Nuclear Energy and Environment of the Parliamentary Committee for Environmental Issues. The 1990 Chernobyl Declaration stated the following; 'It was established that the full burden of the responsibility for the catastrophe should be placed on the state, its authorities and leadership, guilty of criminal actions, along with the political leadership of republics, who created a command-administrative bureaucratic system with its totalitarian regime.' (N.T.)

  17. [2016 review on catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costedoat-Chalumeau, Nathalie; Coutte, Laetitia; Le Guern, Véronique; Morel, Nathalie; Leroux, Gaelle; Paule, Romain; Mouthon, Luc; Piette, Jean-Charles

    2016-12-01

    The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) develops in at least 1% of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome, either primary or associated with systemic lupus erythematosus. CAPS reveals the antiphospholipid syndrome in about 50% of cases. The CAPS is characterized by rapidly-progressive widespread thromboses mainly affecting the microvasculature in the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies. In a few days, the patients develop multiorgan failure with renal insufficiency with severe hypertension, pulmonary, cerebral, cardiac, digestive and/or cutaneous involvement. The vital prognosis is frequently engaged. CAPS is often precipitated by infectious diseases, surgical procedures and/or withdrawal or modification of the anticoagulation. CAPS overall mortality rate has decreased and is currently below 30%. The main differential diagnoses are other thrombotic microangiopathies, and heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. The treatment of CAPS consists of the association of anticoagulation and steroids, plus plasma exchange and/or intravenous immunoglobulins. Cyclophosphamide is added only in patients with active systemic lupus erythematosus. The potential contribution of some additional therapies (rituximab, eculizumab or sirolimus) needs to be assessed. The prevention of CAPS is essential and is based upon the adequate management of the perioperative period when surgery cannot be avoided, the prompt treatment and the prevention with immunization of infections and the education of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome, especially for the management of oral anticoagulants. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  18. Catastrophic cooling and cessation of heating in the solar corona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter, H.; Bingert, S.; Kamio, S.

    2012-01-01

    Context. Condensations in the more than 106 K hot corona of the Sun are commonly observed in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV). While their contribution to the total solar EUV radiation is still a matter of debate, these condensations certainly provide a valuable tool for studying the dynamic response of the corona to the heating processes. Aims: We investigate different distributions of energy input in time and space to investigate which process is most relevant for understanding these coronal condensations. Methods: For a comparison to observations we synthesize EUV emission from a time-dependent, one-dimensional model for coronal loops, where we employ two heating scenarios: simply shutting down the heating and a model where the heating is very concentrated at the loop footpoints, while keeping the total heat input constant. Results: The heating off/on model does not lead to significant EUV count rates that one observes with SDO/AIA. In contrast, the concentration of the heating near the footpoints leads to thermal non-equilibrium near the loop top resulting in the well-known catastrophic cooling. This process gives a good match to observations of coronal condensations. Conclusions: This shows that the corona needs a steady supply of energy to support the coronal plasma, even during coronal condensations. Otherwise the corona would drain very fast, too fast to even form a condensation. Movies are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

  19. Catastrophic disruptions as the origin of bilobate comets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Stephen R.; Michel, Patrick; Jutzi, Martin; Marchi, Simone; Zhang, Yun; Richardson, Derek C.

    2018-05-01

    Several comets observed at close range have bilobate shapes1, including comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P/C-G), which was imaged by the European Space Agency's Rosetta mission2,3. Bilobate comets are thought to be primordial because they are rich in supervolatiles (for example, N2 and CO) and have a low bulk density, which implies that their formation requires a very low-speed accretion of two bodies. However, slow accretion does not only occur during the primordial phase of the Solar System; it can also occur at later epochs as part of the reaccumulation process resulting from the collisional disruption of a larger body4, so this cannot directly constrain the age of bilobate comets. Here, we show by numerical simulation that 67P/C-G and other elongated or bilobate comets can be formed in the wake of catastrophic collisional disruptions of larger bodies while maintaining their volatiles and low density throughout the process. Since this process can occur at any epoch of our Solar System's history, from early on through to the present day5, there is no need for these objects to be formed primordially. These findings indicate that observed prominent geological features, such as pits and stratified surface layers4,5, may not be primordial.

  20. Radiation-induced mitotic catastrophe in PARG-deficient cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ame, J.Ch.; Fouquerel, E.; Dantzer, F.; De Murcia, G.; Schreiber, V. [IREBS-FRE3211 du CNRS, Universite de Strasbourg, ESBS, Bd Sebastien Brant, BP 10413, 67412 Illkirch Cedex (France); Gauthier, L.R.; Boussin, F.D. [Laboratoire de Radiopathologie/INSERM U967, CEA-DSV-IRCM, 92265 Fontenay aux Roses, Cedex 6 (France); Biard, D. [CEA-DSV-IRCM/INSERM U935, Institut A. Lwoff-CNRS, BP 8, 94801 Villejuif cedex (France)

    2009-07-01

    Poly(ADP-ribosyl)ation is a post-translational modification of proteins involved in the regulation of chromatin structure, DNA metabolism, cell division and cell death. Through the hydrolysis of poly(ADP-ribose) (PAR), Poly(ADP-ribose) glyco-hydrolase (PARG) has a crucial role in the control of life-and-death balance following DNA insult. Comprehension of PARG function has been hindered by the existence of many PARG isoforms encoded by a single gene and displaying various subcellular localizations. To gain insight into the function of PARG in response to irradiation, we constitutively and stably knocked down expression of PARG isoforms in HeLa cells. PARG depletion leading to PAR accumulation was not deleterious to undamaged cells and was in fact rather beneficial, because it protected cells from spontaneous single-strand breaks and telomeric abnormalities. By contrast, PARG-deficient cells showed increased radiosensitivity, caused by defects in the repair of single- and double-strand breaks and in mitotic spindle checkpoint, leading to alteration of progression of mitosis. Irradiated PARG-deficient cells displayed centrosome amplification leading to mitotic supernumerary spindle poles, and accumulated aberrant mitotic figures, which induced either polyploidy or cell death by mitotic catastrophe. Our results suggest that PARG could be a novel potential therapeutic target for radiotherapy. (authors)

  1. Stabilization of Reversed Replication Forks by Telomerase Drives Telomere Catastrophe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margalef, Pol; Kotsantis, Panagiotis; Borel, Valerie; Bellelli, Roberto; Panier, Stephanie; Boulton, Simon J

    2018-01-25

    Telomere maintenance critically depends on the distinct activities of telomerase, which adds telomeric repeats to solve the end replication problem, and RTEL1, which dismantles DNA secondary structures at telomeres to facilitate replisome progression. Here, we establish that reversed replication forks are a pathological substrate for telomerase and the source of telomere catastrophe in Rtel1 -/- cells. Inhibiting telomerase recruitment to telomeres, but not its activity, or blocking replication fork reversal through PARP1 inhibition or depleting UBC13 or ZRANB3 prevents the rapid accumulation of dysfunctional telomeres in RTEL1-deficient cells. In this context, we establish that telomerase binding to reversed replication forks inhibits telomere replication, which can be mimicked by preventing replication fork restart through depletion of RECQ1 or PARG. Our results lead us to propose that telomerase inappropriately binds to and inhibits restart of reversed replication forks within telomeres, which compromises replication and leads to critically short telomeres. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Dietary characterization of terrestrial mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pineda-Munoz, Silvia; Alroy, John

    2014-08-22

    Understanding the feeding behaviour of the species that make up any ecosystem is essential for designing further research. Mammals have been studied intensively, but the criteria used for classifying their diets are far from being standardized. We built a database summarizing the dietary preferences of terrestrial mammals using published data regarding their stomach contents. We performed multivariate analyses in order to set up a standardized classification scheme. Ideally, food consumption percentages should be used instead of qualitative classifications. However, when highly detailed information is not available we propose classifying animals based on their main feeding resources. They should be classified as generalists when none of the feeding resources constitute over 50% of the diet. The term 'omnivore' should be avoided because it does not communicate all the complexity inherent to food choice. Moreover, the so-called omnivore diets actually involve several distinctive adaptations. Our dataset shows that terrestrial mammals are generally highly specialized and that some degree of food mixing may even be required for most species.

  3. Terrestrial Zone Exoplanets and Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Brenda

    2018-01-01

    One of the most exciting results from ALMA has been the detection of significant substructure within protoplanetary disks that can be linked to planet formation processes. For the first time, we are able to observe the process of assembly of material into larger bodies within such disks. It is not possible, however, for ALMA to probe the growth of planets in protoplanetary disks at small radii, i.e., in the terrestrial zone, where we expect rocky terrestrial planets to form. In this regime, the optical depths prohibit observation at the high frequencies observed by ALMA. To probe the effects of planet building processes and detect telltale gaps and signatures of planetary mass bodies at such small separations from the parent star, we require a facility of superior resolution and sensitivity at lower frequencies. The ngVLA is just such a facility. We will present the fundamental science that will be enabled by the ngVLA in protoplanetary disk structure and the formation of planets. In addition, we will discuss the potential for an ngVLA facility to detect the molecules that are the building blocks of life, reaching limits well beyond those reachable with the current generation of telescopes, and also to determine whether such planets will be habitable based on studies of the impact of stars on their nearest planetary neighbours.

  4. Effects of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT) on Brain Connectivity Supporting Catastrophizing in Fibromyalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazaridou, Asimina; Kim, Jieun; Cahalan, Christine M; Loggia, Marco L; Franceschelli, Olivia; Berna, Chantal; Schur, Peter; Napadow, Vitaly; Edwards, Robert R

    2017-03-01

    Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic, common pain disorder characterized by hyperalgesia. A key mechanism by which cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) fosters improvement in pain outcomes is via reductions in hyperalgesia and pain-related catastrophizing, a dysfunctional set of cognitive-emotional processes. However, the neural underpinnings of these CBT effects are unclear. Our aim was to assess CBT's effects on the brain circuitry underlying hyperalgesia in FM patients, and to explore the role of treatment-associated reduction in catastrophizing as a contributor to normalization of pain-relevant brain circuitry and clinical improvement. In total, 16 high-catastrophizing FM patients were enrolled in the study and randomized to 4 weeks of individual treatment with either CBT or a Fibromyalgia Education (control) condition. Resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging scans evaluated functional connectivity between key pain-processing brain regions at baseline and posttreatment. Clinical outcomes were assessed at baseline, posttreatment, and 6-month follow-up. Catastrophizing correlated with increased resting state functional connectivity between S1 and anterior insula. The CBT group showed larger reductions (compared with the education group) in catastrophizing at posttreatment (PCBT produced significant reductions in both pain and catastrophizing at the 6-month follow-up (PCBT group also showed reduced resting state connectivity between S1 and anterior/medial insula at posttreatment; these reductions in resting state connectivity were associated with concurrent treatment-related reductions in catastrophizing. The results add to the growing support for the clinically important associations between S1-insula connectivity, clinical pain, and catastrophizing, and suggest that CBT may, in part via reductions in catastrophizing, help to normalize pain-related brain responses in FM.

  5. Riparian vegetation in the alpine connectome: Terrestrial-aquatic and terrestrial-terrestrial interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaharescu, Dragos G; Palanca-Soler, Antonio; Hooda, Peter S; Tanase, Catalin; Burghelea, Carmen I; Lester, Richard N

    2017-12-01

    Alpine regions are under increased attention worldwide for their critical role in early biogeochemical cycles, their high sensitivity to environmental change, and as repositories of natural resources of high quality. Their riparian ecosystems, at the interface between aquatic and terrestrial environments, play important geochemical functions in the watershed and are biodiversity hotspots, despite a harsh climate and topographic setting. With climate change rapidly affecting the alpine biome, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of the extent of interactions between riparian surface, lake and catchment environments. A total of 189 glacial - origin lakes were surveyed in the Central Pyrenees to test how key elements of the lake and terrestrial environments interact at different scales to shape riparian plant composition. Secondly, we evaluated how underlying ecotope features drive the formation of natural communities potentially sensitive to environmental change and assessed their habitat distribution. At the macroscale, vegetation composition responded to pan-climatic gradients altitude and latitude, which captured in a narrow geographic area the transition between large European climatic zones. Hydrodynamics was the main catchment-scale factor connecting riparian vegetation with major water fluxes, followed by topography and geomorphology. Lake sediment Mg and Pb, and water Mn and Fe contents reflected local influences from mafic bedrock and soil water saturation. Community analysis identified four keystone ecosystems: (i) damp ecotone, (ii) snow bed-silicate bedrock, (iii) wet heath, and (iv) calcareous substrate. These communities and their connections with ecotope elements could be at risk from a number of environmental change factors including warmer seasons, snow line and lowland species advancement, increased nutrient/metal input and water level fluctuations. The results imply important natural terrestrial-aquatic linkages in the riparian environment

  6. Microbial ecology of Thailand tsunami and non-tsunami affected terrestrials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somboonna, Naraporn; Wilantho, Alisa; Jankaew, Kruawun; Assawamakin, Anunchai; Sangsrakru, Duangjai; Tangphatsornruang, Sithichoke; Tongsima, Sissades

    2014-01-01

    The effects of tsunamis on microbial ecologies have been ill-defined, especially in Phang Nga province, Thailand. This ecosystem was catastrophically impacted by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami as well as the 600 year-old tsunami in Phra Thong island, Phang Nga province. No study has been conducted to elucidate their effects on microbial ecology. This study represents the first to elucidate their effects on microbial ecology. We utilized metagenomics with 16S and 18S rDNA-barcoded pyrosequencing to obtain prokaryotic and eukaryotic profiles for this terrestrial site, tsunami affected (S1), as well as a parallel unaffected terrestrial site, non-tsunami affected (S2). S1 demonstrated unique microbial community patterns than S2. The dendrogram constructed using the prokaryotic profiles supported the unique S1 microbial communities. S1 contained more proportions of archaea and bacteria domains, specifically species belonging to Bacteroidetes became more frequent, in replacing of the other typical floras like Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria and Basidiomycota. Pathogenic microbes, including Acinetobacter haemolyticus, Flavobacterium spp. and Photobacterium spp., were also found frequently in S1. Furthermore, different metabolic potentials highlighted this microbial community change could impact the functional ecology of the site. Moreover, the habitat prediction based on percent of species indicators for marine, brackish, freshwater and terrestrial niches pointed the S1 to largely comprise marine habitat indicating-species.

  7. Tidal Venuses: Triggering a Climate Catastrophe via Tidal Heating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullins, Kristina; Goldblatt, Colin; Meadows, Victoria S.; Kasting, James F.; Heller, René

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Traditionally, stellar radiation has been the only heat source considered capable of determining global climate on long timescales. Here, we show that terrestrial exoplanets orbiting low-mass stars may be tidally heated at high-enough levels to induce a runaway greenhouse for a long-enough duration for all the hydrogen to escape. Without hydrogen, the planet no longer has water and cannot support life. We call these planets “Tidal Venuses” and the phenomenon a “tidal greenhouse.” Tidal effects also circularize the orbit, which decreases tidal heating. Hence, some planets may form with large eccentricity, with its accompanying large tidal heating, and lose their water, but eventually settle into nearly circular orbits (i.e., with negligible tidal heating) in the habitable zone (HZ). However, these planets are not habitable, as past tidal heating desiccated them, and hence should not be ranked highly for detailed follow-up observations aimed at detecting biosignatures. We simulated the evolution of hypothetical planetary systems in a quasi-continuous parameter distribution and found that we could constrain the history of the system by statistical arguments. Planets orbiting stars with massestidal heating. We have applied these concepts to Gl 667C c, a ∼4.5 MEarth planet orbiting a 0.3 MSun star at 0.12 AU. We found that it probably did not lose its water via tidal heating, as orbital stability is unlikely for the high eccentricities required for the tidal greenhouse. As the inner edge of the HZ is defined by the onset of a runaway or moist greenhouse powered by radiation, our results represent a fundamental revision to the HZ for noncircular orbits. In the appendices we review (a) the moist and runaway greenhouses, (b) hydrogen escape, (c) stellar mass-radius and mass-luminosity relations, (d) terrestrial planet mass-radius relations, and (e) linear tidal theories. Key Words: Extrasolar terrestrial planets—Habitability—Habitable zone

  8. Terrestrial Permafrost Models of Martian Habitats and Inhabitants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilichinsky, D.

    2011-12-01

    Martian permafrost is still 100 times older. Only one terrestrial environment is close to Mars in age - volcanoes in permafrost areas. The age of volcanic deposits frozen after eruption is much younger than the age of surrounding permafrost. Culture- and culture-independent methods show the presence of viable thermophiles and their genes within pyroclastic frozen material on Deception Island, Antarctica and Kamchatka peninsula. These bacteria and archeae have not been found in permafrost outside the volcanic areas. The only way for thermophiles to get into frozen soil is through deposition during eruption, i.e. the catastrophic geological events transport microbes from the depths to the surface and they survive at subzero temperatures. The past activity of Martian volcanoes periodically burned through the frozen strata and products of eruptions rose from the depths to the surface and froze. Images taken by the Stereo Camera on board the Mars Express discovered volcanoes 2-15Myr old that date back to ages close to permafrost on Earth. Terrestrial communities might serve as a model of inhabitants for these young volcanoes. 3. The only opportunity for free water on Mars is the overcooled water brines, and halo/psychrophilc community of Arctic cryopegs, sandwiched within permafrost, represents a plausible prototype for Martian microbial life.

  9. Terrestrial gamma-ray flashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marisaldi, Martino; Fuschino, Fabio; Labanti, Claudio; Tavani, Marco; Argan, Andrea; Del Monte, Ettore; Longo, Francesco; Barbiellini, Guido; Giuliani, Andrea; Trois, Alessio; Bulgarelli, Andrea; Gianotti, Fulvio; Trifoglio, Massimo

    2013-08-01

    Lightning and thunderstorm systems in general have been recently recognized as powerful particle accelerators, capable of producing electrons, positrons, gamma-rays and neutrons with energies as high as several tens of MeV. In fact, these natural systems turn out to be the highest energy and most efficient natural particle accelerators on Earth. Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes (TGFs) are millisecond long, very intense bursts of gamma-rays and are one of the most intriguing manifestation of these natural accelerators. Only three currently operative missions are capable of detecting TGFs from space: the RHESSI, Fermi and AGILE satellites. In this paper we review the characteristics of TGFs, including energy spectrum, timing structure, beam geometry and correlation with lightning, and the basic principles of the associated production models. Then we focus on the recent AGILE discoveries concerning the high energy extension of the TGF spectrum up to 100 MeV, which is difficult to reconcile with current theoretical models.

  10. Terrestrial gamma-ray flashes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marisaldi, Martino; Fuschino, Fabio; Labanti, Claudio; Tavani, Marco; Argan, Andrea; Del Monte, Ettore; Longo, Francesco; Barbiellini, Guido; Giuliani, Andrea; Trois, Alessio; Bulgarelli, Andrea; Gianotti, Fulvio; Trifoglio, Massimo

    2013-01-01

    Lightning and thunderstorm systems in general have been recently recognized as powerful particle accelerators, capable of producing electrons, positrons, gamma-rays and neutrons with energies as high as several tens of MeV. In fact, these natural systems turn out to be the highest energy and most efficient natural particle accelerators on Earth. Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes (TGFs) are millisecond long, very intense bursts of gamma-rays and are one of the most intriguing manifestation of these natural accelerators. Only three currently operative missions are capable of detecting TGFs from space: the RHESSI, Fermi and AGILE satellites. In this paper we review the characteristics of TGFs, including energy spectrum, timing structure, beam geometry and correlation with lightning, and the basic principles of the associated production models. Then we focus on the recent AGILE discoveries concerning the high energy extension of the TGF spectrum up to 100 MeV, which is difficult to reconcile with current theoretical models

  11. The Solar-Terrestrial Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hargreaves, John Keith

    1995-05-01

    The book begins with three introductory chapters that provide some basic physics and explain the principles of physical investigation. The principal material contained in the main part of the book covers the neutral and ionized upper atmosphere, the magnetosphere, and structures, dynamics, disturbances, and irregularities. The concluding chapter deals with technological applications. The account is introductory, at a level suitable for readers with a basic background in engineering or physics. The intent is to present basic concepts, and for that reason, the mathematical treatment is not complex. SI units are given throughout, with helpful notes on cgs units where these are likely to be encountered in the research literature. This book is suitable for advanced undergraduate and graduate students who are taking introductory courses on upper atmospheric, ionospheric, or magnetospheric physics. This is a successor to The Upper Atmosphere and Solar-Terrestrial Relations, published in 1979.

  12. Radionuclide transfer in terrestrial animals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DiGregorio, D.; Kitchings, T.; Van Voris, P.

    1978-01-01

    The analysis of dispersion of radionuclides in terrestrial food chains, generally, is a series of equations identifying the fractional input and outflow rates from trophic level to trophic level. Data that are prerequisite inputs for these food chain transport models include: (1) identification of specific transport pathway, (2) assimilation at each pathway link, and (3) the turnover rate or retention function by successive receptor species in the appropriate food chain. In this report, assimilation coefficients, biological half-lives, and excretion rates for a wide variety of vertebrate and invertebrate species and radionuclides have been compiled from an extensive search of the available literature. Using the information accumulated from the literature, correlations of nuclide metabolism and body weight are also discussed. (author)

  13. Methyl mercury in terrestrial compartments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoeppler, M.; Burow, M.; Padberg, S.; May, K.

    1993-09-01

    On the basis of the analytical methodology available at present the state of the art for the determination of total mercury and of various organometallic compounds of mercury in air, precipitation, limnic systems, soils, plants and biota is reviewed. This is followed by the presentation and discussion of examples for the data obtained hitherto for trace and ultratrace levels of total mercury and mainly methyl mercury in terrestrial and limnic environments as well as in biota. The data discussed stem predominantly from the past decade in which, due to significant methodological progress, many new aspects were elucidated. They include the most important results in this area achieved by the Research Centre (KFA) Juelich within the project 'Origin and Fate of Methyl Mercury' (contracts EV4V-0138-D and STEP-CT90-0057) supported by the Commission of the European Communities, Brussels. (orig.) [de

  14. Traumatic insemination in terrestrial arthropods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatarnic, Nikolai J; Cassis, Gerasimos; Siva-Jothy, Michael T

    2014-01-01

    Traumatic insemination is a bizarre form of mating practiced by some invertebrates in which males use hypodermic genitalia to penetrate their partner's body wall during copulation, frequently bypassing the female genital tract and ejaculating into their blood system. The requirements for traumatic insemination to evolve are stringent, yet surprisingly it has arisen multiple times within invertebrates. In terrestrial arthropods traumatic insemination is most prevalent in the true bug infraorder Cimicomorpha, where it has evolved independently at least three times. Traumatic insemination is thought to occur in the Strepsiptera and has recently been recorded in fruit fly and spider lineages. We review the putative selective pressures that may have led to the evolution of traumatic insemination across these lineages, as well as the pressures that continue to drive divergence in male and female reproductive morphology and behavior. Traumatic insemination mechanisms and attributes are compared across independent lineages.

  15. Phytopharmacological overview of Tribulus terrestris

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chhatre, Saurabh; Nesari, Tanuja; Somani, Gauresh; Kanchan, Divya; Sathaye, Sadhana

    2014-01-01

    Tribulus terrestris (family Zygophyllaceae), commonly known as Gokshur or Gokharu or puncture vine, has been used for a long time in both the Indian and Chinese systems of medicine for treatment of various kinds of diseases. Its various parts contain a variety of chemical constituents which are medicinally important, such as flavonoids, flavonol glycosides, steroidal saponins, and alkaloids. It has diuretic, aphrodisiac, antiurolithic, immunomodulatory, antidiabetic, absorption enhancing, hypolipidemic, cardiotonic, central nervous system, hepatoprotective, anti-inflammatory, analgesic, antispasmodic, anticancer, antibacterial, anthelmintic, larvicidal, and anticariogenic activities. For the last few decades or so, extensive research work has been done to prove its biological activities and the pharmacology of its extracts. The aim of this review is to create a database for further investigations of the discovered phytochemical and pharmacological properties of this plant to promote research. This will help in confirmation of its traditional use along with its value-added utility, eventually leading to higher revenues from the plant. PMID:24600195

  16. Terrestrial atmosphere, water and astrobiology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coradini M.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Primitive life, defined as a chemical system capable to transfer its molecular information via self-replication and also capable to evolve, originated about 4 billion years ago from the processing of organic molecules by liquid water. Terrestrial atmosphere played a key role in the process by allowing the permanent presence of liquid water and by participating in the production of carbon-based molecules. Water molecules exhibit specific properties mainly due to a dense network of hydrogen bonds. The carbon-based molecules were either home made in the atmosphere and/or in submarine hydrothermal systems or delivered by meteorites and micrometeorites. The search for possible places beyond the earth where the trilogy atmosphere/water/life could exist is the main objective of astrobiology. Within the Solar System, exploration missions are dedicated to Mars, Europa, Titan and the icy bodies. The discovery of several hundreds of extrasolar planets opens the quest to the whole Milky Way.

  17. Terrestrial pathways of radionuclide particulates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boone, F.W.; Ng, Y.C.

    1981-01-01

    Formulations are developed for computing potential human intake of 13 radionuclides via the terrestrial food chains. The formulations are an extension of the NRC methodology. Specific regional crop and livestock transfer and fractional distribution data from the southern part of the U.S.A. are provided and used in the computation of comparative values with those computed by means of USNRC Regulatory Guide 1.109 formulations. In the development of the model, emphasis was also placed on identifying the various time-delay compartments of the food chains and accounting for all of the activity initially deposited. For all radionuclides considered, except 137 Cs, the new formulations predict lower potential intakes from the total of all food chains combined than do the comparable Regulatory Guide formulations by as much as a factor of 40. For 137 Cs the new formulations predict 10% higher potential intakes. (author)

  18. Tidal Venuses: triggering a climate catastrophe via tidal heating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Rory; Mullins, Kristina; Goldblatt, Colin; Meadows, Victoria S; Kasting, James F; Heller, René

    2013-03-01

    Traditionally, stellar radiation has been the only heat source considered capable of determining global climate on long timescales. Here, we show that terrestrial exoplanets orbiting low-mass stars may be tidally heated at high-enough levels to induce a runaway greenhouse for a long-enough duration for all the hydrogen to escape. Without hydrogen, the planet no longer has water and cannot support life. We call these planets "Tidal Venuses" and the phenomenon a "tidal greenhouse." Tidal effects also circularize the orbit, which decreases tidal heating. Hence, some planets may form with large eccentricity, with its accompanying large tidal heating, and lose their water, but eventually settle into nearly circular orbits (i.e., with negligible tidal heating) in the habitable zone (HZ). However, these planets are not habitable, as past tidal heating desiccated them, and hence should not be ranked highly for detailed follow-up observations aimed at detecting biosignatures. We simulated the evolution of hypothetical planetary systems in a quasi-continuous parameter distribution and found that we could constrain the history of the system by statistical arguments. Planets orbiting stars with massesplanet orbiting a 0.3 MSun star at 0.12 AU. We found that it probably did not lose its water via tidal heating, as orbital stability is unlikely for the high eccentricities required for the tidal greenhouse. As the inner edge of the HZ is defined by the onset of a runaway or moist greenhouse powered by radiation, our results represent a fundamental revision to the HZ for noncircular orbits. In the appendices we review (a) the moist and runaway greenhouses, (b) hydrogen escape, (c) stellar mass-radius and mass-luminosity relations, (d) terrestrial planet mass-radius relations, and (e) linear tidal theories.

  19. Impact of Osteoarthritis on Household Catastrophic Health Expenditures in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyoungyoung; Cho, Soo-Kyung; Kim, Daehyun; Kim, Dalho; Jung, Sun-Young; Jang, Eun Jin; Sung, Yoon-Kyoung

    2018-05-21

    Osteoarthritis (OA) is a disease of old age whose prevalence is increasing. This study explored the impact of OA on household catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) in Korea. We used data on 5,200 households from the Korea Health Panel Survey in 2013 and estimated annual living expenses and out-of-pocket (OOP) payments. Household CHE was defined when a household's total OOP health payments exceeded 10%, 20%, 30%, or 40% of the household's capacity to pay. To compare the OOP payments of households with OA individuals and those without OA, OA households were matched 1:1 with households containing a member with other chronic disease such as neoplasm, hypertension, heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, or osteoporosis. The impact of OA on CHE was determined by multivariable logistic analysis. A total of 1,289 households were included, and households with and without OA patients paid mean annual OOP payments of $2,789 and $2,607, respectively. The prevalence of household CHE at thresholds of 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40% were higher in households with OA patients than in those without OA patients ( P < 0.001). The presence of OA patients in each household contributed significantly to CHE at thresholds of 10% (odds ratio [OR], 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-1.87), 20% (OR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.01-1.66), and 30% (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.05-1.78), but not of 40% (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.87-1.57). The presence of OA patients in Korean households is significantly related to CHE. Policy makers should try to reduce OOP payments in households with OA patients.

  20. Theories of Lethal Mutagenesis: From Error Catastrophe to Lethal Defection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejero, Héctor; Montero, Francisco; Nuño, Juan Carlos

    2016-01-01

    RNA viruses get extinct in a process called lethal mutagenesis when subjected to an increase in their mutation rate, for instance, by the action of mutagenic drugs. Several approaches have been proposed to understand this phenomenon. The extinction of RNA viruses by increased mutational pressure was inspired by the concept of the error threshold. The now classic quasispecies model predicts the existence of a limit to the mutation rate beyond which the genetic information of the wild type could not be efficiently transmitted to the next generation. This limit was called the error threshold, and for mutation rates larger than this threshold, the quasispecies was said to enter into error catastrophe. This transition has been assumed to foster the extinction of the whole population. Alternative explanations of lethal mutagenesis have been proposed recently. In the first place, a distinction is made between the error threshold and the extinction threshold, the mutation rate beyond which a population gets extinct. Extinction is explained from the effect the mutation rate has, throughout the mutational load, on the reproductive ability of the whole population. Secondly, lethal defection takes also into account the effect of interactions within mutant spectra, which have been shown to be determinant for the understanding the extinction of RNA virus due to an augmented mutational pressure. Nonetheless, some relevant issues concerning lethal mutagenesis are not completely understood yet, as so survival of the flattest, i.e. the development of resistance to lethal mutagenesis by evolving towards mutationally more robust regions of sequence space, or sublethal mutagenesis, i.e., the increase of the mutation rate below the extinction threshold which may boost the adaptability of RNA virus, increasing their ability to develop resistance to drugs (including mutagens). A better design of antiviral therapies will still require an improvement of our knowledge about lethal

  1. A Spherical Aerial Terrestrial Robot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudley, Christopher J.

    This thesis focuses on the design of a novel, ultra-lightweight spherical aerial terrestrial robot (ATR). The ATR has the ability to fly through the air or roll on the ground, for applications that include search and rescue, mapping, surveillance, environmental sensing, and entertainment. The design centers around a micro-quadcopter encased in a lightweight spherical exoskeleton that can rotate about the quadcopter. The spherical exoskeleton offers agile ground locomotion while maintaining characteristics of a basic aerial robot in flying mode. A model of the system dynamics for both modes of locomotion is presented and utilized in simulations to generate potential trajectories for aerial and terrestrial locomotion. Details of the quadcopter and exoskeleton design and fabrication are discussed, including the robot's turning characteristic over ground and the spring-steel exoskeleton with carbon fiber axle. The capabilities of the ATR are experimentally tested and are in good agreement with model-simulated performance. An energy analysis is presented to validate the overall efficiency of the robot in both modes of locomotion. Experimentally-supported estimates show that the ATR can roll along the ground for over 12 minutes and cover the distance of 1.7 km, or it can fly for 4.82 minutes and travel 469 m, on a single 350 mAh battery. Compared to a traditional flying-only robot, the ATR traveling over the same distance in rolling mode is 2.63-times more efficient, and in flying mode the system is only 39 percent less efficient. Experimental results also demonstrate the ATR's transition from rolling to flying mode.

  2. Psychological flexibility and catastrophizing as associated change mechanisms during online Acceptance & Commitment Therapy for chronic pain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trompetter, H.R.; Bohlmeijer, Ernst Thomas; Fox, Gerardus J.A.; Schreurs, Karlein Maria Gertrudis

    2015-01-01

    The underlying mechanisms of the effectiveness of cognitive behavioural interventions for chronic pain need further clarification. The role of, and associations between, pain-related psychological flexibility (PF) and pain catastrophizing (PC) were examined during a randomized controlled trial on

  3. Global Catastrophes in Earth History: An Interdisciplinary Conference on Impacts, Volcanism, and Mass Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    Topics addressed include: Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinctions; geologial indicators for meteorite collisions; carbon dioxide catastrophes; volcanism; climatic changes; geochemistry; mineralogy; fossil records; biospheric traumas; stratigraphy; mathematical models; and ocean dynamics.

  4. Dyadic analysis of child and parent trait and state pain catastrophizing in the process of children's pain communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birnie, Kathryn A; Chambers, Christine T; Chorney, Jill; Fernandez, Conrad V; McGrath, Patrick J

    2016-04-01

    When explored separately, child and parent catastrophic thoughts about child pain show robust negative relations with child pain. The objective of this study was to conduct a dyadic analysis to elucidate intrapersonal and interpersonal influences of child and parent pain catastrophizing on aspects of pain communication, including observed behaviours and perceptions of child pain. A community sample of 171 dyads including children aged 8 to 12 years (89 girls) and parents (135 mothers) rated pain catastrophizing (trait and state versions) and child pain intensity and unpleasantness following a cold pressor task. Child pain tolerance was also assessed. Parent-child interactions during the cold pressor task were coded for parent attending, nonattending, and other talk, and child symptom complaints and other talk. Data were analyzed using the actor-partner interdependence model and hierarchical multiple regressions. Children reporting higher state pain catastrophizing had greater symptom complaints regardless of level of parent state pain catastrophizing. Children reporting low state pain catastrophizing had similar high levels of symptom complaints, but only when parents reported high state pain catastrophizing. Higher child and parent state and/or trait pain catastrophizing predicted their own ratings of higher child pain intensity and unpleasantness, with child state pain catastrophizing additionally predicting parent ratings. Higher pain tolerance was predicted by older child age and lower child state pain catastrophizing. These newly identified interpersonal effects highlight the relevance of the social context to children's pain expressions and parent perceptions of child pain. Both child and parent pain catastrophizing warrant consideration when managing child pain.

  5. Pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: descriptive analysis of 45 patients from the "CAPS Registry".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Horacio; Rodríguez-Pintó, Ignasi; Cervera, Ricard; Gregory, Simone; de Meis, Ernesto; Rodrigues, Carlos Ewerton Maia; Aikawa, Nádia Emi; de Carvalho, Jozélio Freire; Springer, Janusz; Niedzwiecki, Maciej; Espinosa, Gerard

    2014-02-01

    Given the lack of information about catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) in pediatric patients, the objective of the current study was to describe the clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome of pediatric patients with catastrophic APS and compare them with the adult patients with catastrophic APS. We identified patients who were under 18years of age at time of catastrophic APS diagnosis included in the international registry of patients with catastrophic APS (CAPS Registry). Their main demographic and clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome were described and compared with those of adult patients with catastrophic APS. From the 446 patients included in the CAPS Registry as of May 2013, 45 (10.3%) patients developed 46 catastrophic events before 18years of age (one patient presented two episodes). Overall, 32 (71.1%) patients were female and the mean age was 11.5±4.6years (range, 3months-18years). A total of 31 (68.9%) patients suffered from primary APS and 13 (28.9%) from systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The main differences between the two groups of patients were the higher prevalence of infections as precipitating factor for catastrophic event in the pediatric population (60.9% versus 26.8% in the adult population, p<0.001) and of peripheral vessel thrombosis (52.2% versus 34.3%, p=0.017). In addition, catastrophic APS was the first manifestation of APS more frequently in pediatric patients (86.6% versus 45.2%, p<0.001). Interestingly, pediatric patients showed a trend of lower mortality, although the difference was not statistically significant (26.1% versus 40.2%; odds ratio, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-3.79; p=0.063). No differences were found neither in the laboratory features nor in the isolated or combination treatments between groups. Catastrophic APS in pediatric patients is a rare disease. There are minimal differences in the clinical and laboratory features, treatment, and

  6. Hepatoprotective and Antioxidant Activities of Tribulus Terrestris

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harraz, Fathalla M; Ghazy, Nabila M; Hammoda, Hala M; Nafeaa, Abeer A.; Abdallah, Ingy I.

    2015-01-01

    Tribulus terrestris L. has been used in folk medicine throughout history. The present study examined the acute toxicity of the total ethanolic extract of T. Terrestris followed by investigation of the hepatoprotective activity of the total ethanolic extract and different fractions of the aerial

  7. Modeling the Effect of Privatization on Behavior of Hurst Exponent Using Stochastic Catastrophe Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

    In this paper using the global Hurst exponent, the impact of privatization of public companies in Iran on the degree of efficiency in Tehran Stock Exchange is assessed. The results show that selling public companies' share in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) leads to a structural break in degree of market development. To model this phenomenon a catastrophe approach is used and it is demonstrated that this structural break can be better explained by a cusp catastrophe model.

  8. Statistical and machine learning approaches for the minimization of trigger errors in parametric earthquake catastrophe bonds

    OpenAIRE

    Calvet, Laura

    2017-01-01

    Catastrophe bonds are financial instruments designed to transfer risk of monetary losses arising from earthquakes, hurricanes, or floods to the capital markets. The insurance and reinsurance industry, governments, and private entities employ them frequently to obtain coverage. Parametric catastrophe bonds base their payments on physical features. For instance, given parameters such as magnitude of the earthquake and the location of its epicentre, the bond may pay a fixed amount or not pay at ...

  9. A CATASTROPHIC-CUM-RESTORATIVE QUEUING SYSTEM WITH CORRELATED BATCH ARRIVALS AND VARIABLE CAPACITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakesh Kumar

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we study a catastrophic-cum-restorative queuing system with correlated batch arrivals and service in batches of variable sizes. We perform the transient analysis of the queuing model. We obtain the Laplace Transform of the probability generating function of system size. Finally, some particular cases of the model have been derived and discussed. Keywords: Queue length, Catastrophes, Correlated batch arrivals, Broadband services, Variable service capacity, and Restoration.

  10. Development of the Catastrophe Bonds and their correlation with other financial instruments

    OpenAIRE

    Čavojec, Ján

    2009-01-01

    This master thesis discusses the niche of reinsurance business -- catastrophe bonds. It provides a brief description of reinsurance in general, insurance-linked securities and catastrophe bonds. The goal of this thesis is to describe the development of cat bond market and the influence of economic and natural shocks on it. In order to analyze the effect, quarter issuance data are used together with Swiss Re Cat Bonds return indexes. In addition, several other variables (i.e. Munich Re and Swi...

  11. The shareholder wealth effects of insurance securitization: preliminary evidence from the catastrophe bond market

    OpenAIRE

    Hagendorff, Bjoern; Hagendorff, Jens; Keasey, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    Insurance securitization has long been hailed as an important tool to increase theunderwriting capacity for companies exposed to catastrophe-related risks. However, globalvolumes of insurance securitization have remained surprisingly low to date which raisesquestions over its benefits. In this paper, we examine changes in the market value ofinsurance and reinsurance firms which announce their engagement in insurance securitizationby issuing catastrophe (Cat) bonds. Consistent with the hithert...

  12. Assessing catastrophic and impoverishing effects of health care payments in Uganda

    OpenAIRE

    Kwesiga, Brendan; Zikusooka, Charlotte M; Ataguba, John E

    2015-01-01

    Background Direct out-of-pocket payments for health care are recognised as limiting access to health care services and also endangering the welfare of households. In Uganda, such payments comprise a large portion of total health financing. This study assesses the catastrophic and impoverishing impact of paying for health care out-of-pocket in Uganda. Methods Using data from the Uganda National Household Surveys 2009/10, the catastrophic impact of out-of-pocket health care payments is defined ...

  13. Catastrophic Health Expenditure and Household Impoverishment: a case of NCDs prevalence in Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Mwai

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and problem: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs have become one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Kenya. Their claim on financial and time resources adversely affects household welfare. Health care cost for NCDs in Kenya is predominantly paid by households as OOP. Health expenditure on NCD stands at 6.2% of Total Health Expenditure which is 0.4 % of the total gross domestic product of the country. This expenditure scenario could have implications on household welfare through catastrophic expenditure in Kenya. Most studies done on catastrophic expenditure in Kenya have not looked at the effect of NCD on poverty. Methodology: The paper has investigated the determinants of catastrophic health spending in a household with special focus on the NCDs. It has also investigated the effect of catastrophic expenditure on household welfare.A National household level survey data on expenditure and utilization is used. Controlling for endogeneity, the results revealed that NCDs and communicable diseases contribute significantly to the likelihood of a household incurring catastrophic expenditure. Results: Although all types of sicknesses have negative effects on household welfare, NCDs have more severe impacts on impoverishment. Policy wise, government and development partners should put in place a health financing plan entailing health insurance and resource pooling as a mean towards social protection. Key words:  Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD, Catastrophic Health Expenditure, endogeneity Impoverishment

  14. An application of Mean Escape Time and metapopulation on forestry catastrophe insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiangcheng; Zhang, Chunmin; Liu, Jifa; Li, Zhen; Yang, Xuan

    2018-04-01

    A forestry catastrophe insurance model due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics is developed by employing metapopulation dynamics and statistics properties of Mean Escape Time (MET). The probability of outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss and the catastrophe loss payment time with MET are respectively investigated. Forestry loss data in China is used for model simulation. Experimental results are concluded as: (1) The model with analytical results is shown to be a better fit; (2) Within the condition of big area of patches and structure of patches, high system factor, low extinction rate, high multiplicative noises, and additive noises with a high cross-correlated strength range, an outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss or catastrophe loss payment due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics could occur; (3) An optimal catastrophe loss payment time MET due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics can be identified by taking proper value of multiplicative noises and limits the additive noises on a low range of value, and cross-correlated strength at a high range of value.

  15. Pricing Zero-Coupon Catastrophe Bonds Using EVT with Doubly Stochastic Poisson Arrivals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zonggang Ma

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The frequency and severity of climate abnormal change displays an irregular upward cycle as global warming intensifies. Therefore, this paper employs a doubly stochastic Poisson process with Black Derman Toy (BDT intensity to describe the catastrophic characteristics. By using the Property Claim Services (PCS loss index data from 2001 to 2010 provided by the US Insurance Services Office (ISO, the empirical result reveals that the BDT arrival rate process is superior to the nonhomogeneous Poisson and lognormal intensity process due to its smaller RMSE, MAE, MRPE, and U and larger E and d. Secondly, to depict extreme features of catastrophic risks, this paper adopts the Peak Over Threshold (POT in extreme value theory (EVT to characterize the tail characteristics of catastrophic loss distribution. And then the loss distribution is analyzed and assessed using a quantile-quantile (QQ plot to visually check whether the PCS index observations meet the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD assumption. Furthermore, this paper derives a pricing formula for zero-coupon catastrophe bonds with a stochastic interest rate environment and aggregate losses generated by a compound doubly stochastic Poisson process under the forward measure. Finally, simulation results verify pricing model predictions and show how catastrophic risks and interest rate risk affect the prices of zero-coupon catastrophe bonds.

  16. A comparison of catastrophic injury incidence rates by Provincial Rugby Union in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badenhorst, Marelise; Verhagen, Evert A L M; van Mechelen, Willem; Lambert, Michael I; Viljoen, Wayne; Readhead, Clint; Baerecke, Gail; Brown, James C

    2017-07-01

    To compare catastrophic injury rates between the 14 South African Provincial Rugby Unions. A prospective, population-based study conducted among all South African Unions between 2008-2014. Player numbers in each Union were obtained from South African Rugby's 2013 Census. Catastrophic injuries were analysed from BokSmart's serious injury database. Incidence rates with 95% Confidence Intervals were calculated. Catastrophic injuries (Acute Spinal Cord Injuries and catastrophic Traumatic Brain Injuries) within Unions were compared statistically, using a Poisson regression with Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) and a 95% confidence level (pUnion ranged from 1.8 per 100000 players (95% CI: 0.0-6.5) to 7.9 (95% CI: 0.0-28.5) per 100000 players per year. The highest incidence rate of permanent outcome Acute Spinal Cord Injuries was reported at 7.1 per 100000 players (95% CI: 0.0-17.6). Compared to this Union, five (n=5/14, 36%) of the Unions had significantly lower incidence rates of Acute Spinal Cord Injuries. Proportionately, three Unions had more Acute Spinal Cord Injuries and three other Unions had more catastrophic Traumatic Brain Injuries. There were significant differences in the catastrophic injury incidence rates amongst the Provincial Unions in South Africa. Future studies should investigate the underlying reasons contributing to these provincial differences. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Diffusion-based neuromodulation can eliminate catastrophic forgetting in simple neural networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roby Velez

    Full Text Available A long-term goal of AI is to produce agents that can learn a diversity of skills throughout their lifetimes and continuously improve those skills via experience. A longstanding obstacle towards that goal is catastrophic forgetting, which is when learning new information erases previously learned information. Catastrophic forgetting occurs in artificial neural networks (ANNs, which have fueled most recent advances in AI. A recent paper proposed that catastrophic forgetting in ANNs can be reduced by promoting modularity, which can limit forgetting by isolating task information to specific clusters of nodes and connections (functional modules. While the prior work did show that modular ANNs suffered less from catastrophic forgetting, it was not able to produce ANNs that possessed task-specific functional modules, thereby leaving the main theory regarding modularity and forgetting untested. We introduce diffusion-based neuromodulation, which simulates the release of diffusing, neuromodulatory chemicals within an ANN that can modulate (i.e. up or down regulate learning in a spatial region. On the simple diagnostic problem from the prior work, diffusion-based neuromodulation 1 induces task-specific learning in groups of nodes and connections (task-specific localized learning, which 2 produces functional modules for each subtask, and 3 yields higher performance by eliminating catastrophic forgetting. Overall, our results suggest that diffusion-based neuromodulation promotes task-specific localized learning and functional modularity, which can help solve the challenging, but important problem of catastrophic forgetting.

  18. Diffusion-based neuromodulation can eliminate catastrophic forgetting in simple neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clune, Jeff

    2017-01-01

    A long-term goal of AI is to produce agents that can learn a diversity of skills throughout their lifetimes and continuously improve those skills via experience. A longstanding obstacle towards that goal is catastrophic forgetting, which is when learning new information erases previously learned information. Catastrophic forgetting occurs in artificial neural networks (ANNs), which have fueled most recent advances in AI. A recent paper proposed that catastrophic forgetting in ANNs can be reduced by promoting modularity, which can limit forgetting by isolating task information to specific clusters of nodes and connections (functional modules). While the prior work did show that modular ANNs suffered less from catastrophic forgetting, it was not able to produce ANNs that possessed task-specific functional modules, thereby leaving the main theory regarding modularity and forgetting untested. We introduce diffusion-based neuromodulation, which simulates the release of diffusing, neuromodulatory chemicals within an ANN that can modulate (i.e. up or down regulate) learning in a spatial region. On the simple diagnostic problem from the prior work, diffusion-based neuromodulation 1) induces task-specific learning in groups of nodes and connections (task-specific localized learning), which 2) produces functional modules for each subtask, and 3) yields higher performance by eliminating catastrophic forgetting. Overall, our results suggest that diffusion-based neuromodulation promotes task-specific localized learning and functional modularity, which can help solve the challenging, but important problem of catastrophic forgetting. PMID:29145413

  19. Catastrophic Economic Consequences of Healthcare Payments: Effects on Poverty Estimates in Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Shoukry Rashad

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Healthcare payments could drive households with no health insurance coverage into financial catastrophe, which might lead them to cut spending on necessities, sell assets, or use credit. In extreme cases, healthcare payments could have devastating consequences on the household economic status that would push them into extreme poverty. Using nationally representative surveys from three Arab countries, namely, Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine, this paper examines the incidence, intensity and distribution of catastrophic health payments, and assesses the poverty impact of out-of-pocket health payments (OOP. The OOP for healthcare were considered catastrophic if it exceeded 10% of a household’s total expenditure or 40% of non-food expenditure. The poverty impact was evaluated using poverty head counts and poverty gaps before and after OOP. Results show that OOP exacerbate households’ living severely in Egypt, pushing more than one-fifth of the population into a financial catastrophe and 3% into extreme poverty in 2011. However, in Jordan and Palestine, the disruptive impact of OOP remains modest over time. In the three countries, the catastrophic health payment is the problem of the better off households. Poverty alleviation policies should help reduce the reliance on OOP to finance healthcare. Moving toward universal health coverage could also be a promising option to protect households from the catastrophic economic consequences of health care payments.

  20. Financial catastrophe and poverty impacts of out-of-pocket health payments in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özgen Narcı, Hacer; Şahin, İsmet; Yıldırım, Hasan Hüseyin

    2015-04-01

    To determine the prevalence of catastrophic health payments, examine the determinants of catastrophic expenditures, and assess the poverty impact of out-of-pocket (OOP) payments. Data came from the 2004 to 2010 Household Budget Survey. Catastrophic health spending was defined by health payments as percentage of household consumption expenditures and capacity to pay at a set of thresholds. The poverty impact was evaluated by poverty head counts and poverty gaps before and after OOP health payments. The percentage of households that catastrophically spent their consumption expenditure and capacity to pay increased from 2004 to 2010, regardless of the threshold used. Households with a share of more than 40% health spending in both consumption expenditure and capacity to pay accounted for less than 1% across years. However, when a series of potential confounders were taken into account, the study found statistically significantly increased risk for the lowest threshold and decreased risk for the highest threshold in 2010 relative to the base year. Household income, size, education, senior and under 5-year-old members, health insurance, disabled members, payment for inpatient care and settlement were also statistically significant predictors of catastrophic health spending. Overall, poverty head counts were below 1%. Poverty gaps reached a maximum of 0.098%, with an overall increase in 2010 compared to 2004. Catastrophe and poverty increased from 2004 to 2010. However, given that the realization of some recent policies will affect the financial burden of OOP payments on households, the findings of this study need to be replicated.

  1. Proceedings of the Astrobiology Science Conference 2010. Evolution and Life: Surviving Catastrophes and Extremes on Earth and Beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    The Program of the 2010 Astrobiology Science Conference: Evolution and Life: Surviving Catastrophes and Extremes on Earth and Beyond, included sessions on: 50 Years of Exobiology and Astrobiology: Greatest Hits; Extraterrestrial Molecular Evolution and Pre-Biological Chemistry: From the Interstellar Medium to the Solar System I; Human Exploration, Astronaut Health; Diversity in Astrobiology Research and Education; Titan: Past, Present, and Future; Energy Flow in Microbial Ecosystems; Extraterrestrial Molecular Evolution and Prebiological Chemistry: From the Interstellar Medium to the Solar System II; Astrobiology in Orbit; Astrobiology and Interdisciplinary Communication; Science from Rio Tinto: An Acidic Environment; Can We Rule Out Spontaneous Generation of RNA as the Key Step in the Origin of Life?; How Hellish Was the Hadean Earth?; Results from ASTEP and Other Astrobiology Field Campaigns I; Prebiotic Evolution: From Chemistry to Life I; Adaptation of Life in Hostile Space Environments; Extrasolar Terrestrial Planets I: Formation and Composition; Collaborative Tools and Technology for Astrobiology; Results from ASTEP and Other Astrobiology Field Campaigns II; Prebiotic Evolution: From Chemistry to Life II; Survival, Growth, and Evolution of Microrganisms in Model Extraterrestrial Environments; Extrasolar Terrestrial Planets II: Habitability and Life; Planetary Science Decadal Survey Update; Astrobiology Research Funding; Bioessential Elements Through Space and Time I; State of the Art in Life Detection; Terrestrial Evolution: Implications for the Past, Present, and Future of Life on Earth; Psychrophiles and Polar Environments; Life in Volcanic Environments: On Earth and Beyond; Geochronology and Astrobiology On and Off the Earth; Bioessential Elements Through Space and Time II; Origins and Evolution of Genetic Systems; Evolution of Advanced Life; Water-rich Asteroids and Moons: Composition and Astrobiological Potential; Impact Events and Evolution; A Warm, Wet

  2. Late Cretaceous restructuring of terrestrial communities facilitated the end-Cretaceous mass extinction in North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Jonathan S; Roopnarine, Peter D; Angielczyk, Kenneth D

    2012-11-13

    The sudden environmental catastrophe in the wake of the end-Cretaceous asteroid impact had drastic effects that rippled through animal communities. To explore how these effects may have been exacerbated by prior ecological changes, we used a food-web model to simulate the effects of primary productivity disruptions, such as those predicted to result from an asteroid impact, on ten Campanian and seven Maastrichtian terrestrial localities in North America. Our analysis documents that a shift in trophic structure between Campanian and Maastrichtian communities in North America led Maastrichtian communities to experience more secondary extinction at lower levels of primary production shutdown and possess a lower collapse threshold than Campanian communities. Of particular note is the fact that changes in dinosaur richness had a negative impact on the robustness of Maastrichtian ecosystems against environmental perturbations. Therefore, earlier ecological restructuring may have exacerbated the impact and severity of the end-Cretaceous extinction, at least in North America.

  3. Multiorgan failure and antiphospholipid antibodies: the catastrophic antiphospholipid (Asherson's) syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asherson, Ronald A

    2005-01-01

    A review of 250 patients with the catastrophic antiphospholipid (Asherson's) syndrome (CAPS) taken from the web site organized by the Europhospholipid Group (http://www.med.ub.es/MIMMUN/FORUM/CAPS.HTM) is presented in this paper. A short historical overview of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is followed by a description of the "triggering" factors, associated autoimmune diseases, clinical presentation, presumed pathogenesis, prognosis, mode of death and suggested therapies. Triggering factors are present in approximately 50% of patients and consist predominantly of infections, trauma, including minor surgical procedures such as biopsies, obstetric-related multiorgan failure and malignancy-associated CAPS. The patients present mainly with multiorgan failure resulting from predominantly small vessel occlusions affecting mainly intra-abdominal organs such as bowel, liver, pancreas, and adrenals, although large vessel occlusions do occur and comprise mainly deep vein thromboses (DVT) of the veins of the lower limbs and arterial occlusions causing strokes and peripheral gangrene. They do not however dominate the clinical picture. The condition differs considerably from the simple/classic APS in several respects, viz. the rapid development of multiorgan failure following the above-mentioned identifiable precipitating factors, the involvement of unusual organs such as bowel, reproductive organs, and bone marrow, complicating features of disseminated intravascular coagulation in 20% of cases, the acute (adult) respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in one third of patients, and severe thrombocytopenia; these not being encountered in the simple/classic APS. Treatment consisting of regular and repeated plasma exchanges using fresh frozen plasma, and IV immunoglobulins in addition to parenteral steroids and anticoagulation are necessary to improve the survival in a condition where the mortality is still of the order of 50%. Treatment may have to be continued for several

  4. Numerical Experiments Based on the Catastrophe Model of Solar Eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, X. Y.; Ziegler, U.; Mei, Z. X.; Wu, N.; Lin, J.

    2017-11-01

    On the basis of the catastrophe model developed by Isenberg et al., we use the NIRVANA code to perform the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) numerical experiments to look into various behaviors of the coronal magnetic configuration that includes a current-carrying flux rope used to model the prominence levitating in the corona. These behaviors include the evolution in equilibrium heights of the flux rope versus the change in the background magnetic field, the corresponding internal equilibrium of the flux rope, dynamic properties of the flux rope after the system loses equilibrium, as well as the impact of the referential radius on the equilibrium heights of the flux rope. In our calculations, an empirical model of the coronal density distribution given by Sittler & Guhathakurta is used, and the physical diffusion is included. Our experiments show that the deviation of simulations in the equilibrium heights from the theoretical results exists, but is not apparent, and the evolutionary features of the two results are similar. If the flux rope is initially locate at the stable branch of the theoretical equilibrium curve, the flux rope will quickly reach the equilibrium position in the simulation after several rounds of oscillations as a result of the self-adjustment of the system; and the flux rope lose the equilibrium if the initial location of the flux rope is set at the critical point on the theoretical equilibrium curve. Correspondingly, the internal equilibrium of the flux rope can be reached as well, and the deviation from the theoretical results is somewhat apparent since the approximation of the small radius of the flux rope is lifted in our experiments, but such deviation does not affect the global equilibrium in the system. The impact of the referential radius on the equilibrium heights of the flux rope is consistent with the prediction of the theory. Our calculations indicate that the motion of the flux rope after the loss of equilibrium is consistent with which

  5. Terrestrial Lidar Datasets of New Orleans, Louisiana, Levee Failures from Hurricane Katrina, August 29, 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Brian D.; Kayen, Robert; Minasian, Diane L.; Reiss, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina made landfall with the northern Gulf Coast on August 29, 2005, as one of the strongest hurricanes on record. The storm damage incurred in Louisiana included a number of levee failures that led to the inundation of approximately 85 percent of the metropolitan New Orleans area. Whereas extreme levels of storm damage were expected from such an event, the catastrophic failure of the New Orleans levees prompted a quick mobilization of engineering experts to assess why and how particular levees failed. As part of this mobilization, civil engineering members of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) performed terrestrial lidar topographic surveys at major levee failures in the New Orleans area. The focus of the terrestrial lidar effort was to obtain precise measurements of the ground surface to map soil displacements at each levee site, the nonuniformity of levee height freeboard, depth of erosion where scour occurred, and distress in structures at incipient failure. In total, we investigated eight sites in the New Orleans region, including both earth and concrete floodwall levee breaks. The datasets extend from the 17th Street Canal in the Orleans East Bank area to the intersection of the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway (GIWW) with the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet (MRGO) in the New Orleans East area. The lidar scan data consists of electronic files containing millions of surveyed points. These points characterize the topography of each levee's postfailure or incipient condition and are available for download through online hyperlinks. The data serve as a permanent archive of the catastrophic damage of Hurricane Katrina on the levee systems of New Orleans. Complete details of the data collection, processing, and georeferencing methodologies are provided in this report to assist in the visualization and analysis of the data by future users.

  6. Does terrestrial epidemiology apply to marine systems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCallum, Hamish I.; Kuris, Armand M.; Harvell, C. Drew; Lafferty, Kevin D.; Smith, Garriet W.; Porter, James

    2004-01-01

    Most of epidemiological theory has been developed for terrestrial systems, but the significance of disease in the ocean is now being recognized. However, the extent to which terrestrial epidemiology can be directly transferred to marine systems is uncertain. Many broad types of disease-causing organism occur both on land and in the sea, and it is clear that some emergent disease problems in marine environments are caused by pathogens moving from terrestrial to marine systems. However, marine systems are qualitatively different from terrestrial environments, and these differences affect the application of modelling and management approaches that have been developed for terrestrial systems. Phyla and body plans are more diverse in marine environments and marine organisms have different life histories and probably different disease transmission modes than many of their terrestrial counterparts. Marine populations are typically more open than terrestrial ones, with the potential for long-distance dispersal of larvae. Potentially, this might enable unusually rapid propagation of epidemics in marine systems, and there are several examples of this. Taken together, these differences will require the development of new approaches to modelling and control of infectious disease in the ocean.

  7. Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chloe J. Taub

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period. All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain.

  8. Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taub, Chloe J; Sturgeon, John A; Johnson, Kevin A; Mackey, Sean C; Darnall, Beth D

    2017-01-01

    Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period). All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST) tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain.

  9. Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturgeon, John A.; Johnson, Kevin A.

    2017-01-01

    Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period). All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST) tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain. PMID:28348505

  10. Steroidal saponins from Tribulus terrestris.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Li-Ping; Wu, Ke-Lei; Yu, He-Shui; Pang, Xu; Liu, Jie; Han, Li-Feng; Zhang, Jie; Zhao, Yang; Xiong, Cheng-Qi; Song, Xin-Bo; Liu, Chao; Cong, Yu-Wen; Ma, Bai-Ping

    2014-11-01

    Sixteen steroidal saponins, including seven previously unreported compounds, were isolated from Tribulus terrestris. The structures of the saponins were established using 1D and 2D NMR spectroscopy, mass spectrometry, and chemical methods. They were identified as: 26-O-β-d-glucopyranosyl-(25R)-furost-4-en-2α,3β,22α,26-tetrol-12-one (terrestrinin C), 26-O-β-d-glucopyranosyl-(25R)-furost-4-en-22α,26-diol-3,12-dione (terrestrinin D), 26-O-β-d-glucopyranosyl-(25S)-furost-4-en-22α,26-diol-3,6,12-trione (terrestrinin E), 26-O-β-d-glucopyranosyl-(25R)-5α-furostan-3β,22α,26-triol-12-one (terrestrinin F), 26-O-β-d-glucopyranosyl-(25R)-furost-4-en-12β,22α,26-triol-3-one (terrestrinin G), 26-O-β-d-glucopyranosyl-(1→6)-β-d-glucopyranosyl-(25R)-furost-4-en-22α,26-diol-3,12-dione (terrestrinin H), and 24-O-β-d-glucopyranosyl-(25S)-5α-spirostan-3β,24β-diol-12-one-3-O-β-d-glucopyranosyl-(1→4)-β-d-galactopyranoside (terrestrinin I). The isolated compounds were evaluated for their platelet aggregation activities. Three of the known saponins exhibited strong effects on the induction of platelet aggregation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Sex ratio variation in the bumblebee Bombus terrestris

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duchateau, Marie José; Velthuis, Hayo H. W.; Boomsma, Jacobus Jan

    2004-01-01

    Bombus terrestris, bumblebees, colony development, queen control, reproductive strategies, sex allocation......Bombus terrestris, bumblebees, colony development, queen control, reproductive strategies, sex allocation...

  12. The Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program Terrestrial Plan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Tom; Payne, J.; Doyle, M.

    , understand and report on long-term change in Arctic terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity, and to identify knowledge gaps and priorities. This poster will outline the key management questions the plan aims to address and the proposed nested, multi-scaled approach linking targeted, research based monitoring...... and coastal environments. The CBMP Terrestrial Plan is a framework to focus and coordinate monitoring of terrestrial biodiversity across the Arctic. The goal of the plan is to improve the collective ability of Arctic traditional knowledge (TK) holders, northern communities, and scientists to detect...

  13. Methane emissions form terrestrial plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergamaschi, P.; Dentener, F.; Grassi, G.; Leip, A.; Somogyi, Z.; Federici, S.; Seufert, G.; Raes, F. [European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (Italy)

    2006-07-01

    In a recent issue of Nature Keppler et al. (2006) report the discovery that terrestrial plants emit CH4 under aerobic conditions. Until now it was thought that bacterial decomposition of plant material under anaerobic conditions, such as in wetlands and water flooded rice paddies, is the main process leading to emissions from terrestrial ecosystems. In a first attempt to upscale these measurements, the authors estimate that global total emissions may be 149 Tg CH4/yr (62-236 Tg CH4/yr), with the main contribution estimated from tropical forests and grasslands (107 Tg CH4/yr with a range of 46-169 Tg CH4/yr). If confirmed, this new source of emission would constitute a significant fraction of the total global methane sources (estimated 500-600 Tg CH4/yr for present day total natural and anthropogenic sources) and have important implications for the global CH4 budget. To accommodate it within the present budget some sources would need to be re-assessed downwards and/or some sinks re-assessed upwards. Furthermore, also considering that methane is a {approx}23 times more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2, the possible feedbacks of these hitherto unknown CH4 emissions on global warming and their impacts on greenhouse gases (GHG) mitigation strategies need to be carefully evaluated. The merit of the paper is without doubt related to the remarkable discovery of a new process of methane emissions active under aerobic conditions. However, we think that the applied approach of scaling up emissions from the leaf level to global totals by using only few measured data (mainly from herbaceous species) and the Net Primary Productivity of the main biomes is scientifically questionable and tends to overestimate considerably the global estimates, especially for forest biomes. Furthermore, some significant constraints on the upper limit of the global natural CH4 emissions arise from the pre-industrial CH4 budget. Pre-industrial atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios have been measured

  14. Possible climates on terrestrial exoplanets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forget, F; Leconte, J

    2014-04-28

    What kind of environment may exist on terrestrial planets around other stars? In spite of the lack of direct observations, it may not be premature to speculate on exoplanetary climates, for instance, to optimize future telescopic observations or to assess the probability of habitable worlds. To begin with, climate primarily depends on (i) the atmospheric composition and the volatile inventory; (ii) the incident stellar flux; and (iii) the tidal evolution of the planetary spin, which can notably lock a planet with a permanent night side. The atmospheric composition and mass depends on complex processes, which are difficult to model: origins of volatiles, atmospheric escape, geochemistry, photochemistry, etc. We discuss physical constraints, which can help us to speculate on the possible type of atmosphere, depending on the planet size, its final distance for its star and the star type. Assuming that the atmosphere is known, the possible climates can be explored using global climate models analogous to the ones developed to simulate the Earth as well as the other telluric atmospheres in the solar system. Our experience with Mars, Titan and Venus suggests that realistic climate simulators can be developed by combining components, such as a 'dynamical core', a radiative transfer solver, a parametrization of subgrid-scale turbulence and convection, a thermal ground model and a volatile phase change code. On this basis, we can aspire to build reliable climate predictors for exoplanets. However, whatever the accuracy of the models, predicting the actual climate regime on a specific planet will remain challenging because climate systems are affected by strong positive feedbacks. They can drive planets with very similar forcing and volatile inventory to completely different states. For instance, the coupling among temperature, volatile phase changes and radiative properties results in instabilities, such as runaway glaciations and runaway greenhouse effect.

  15. Durable terrestrial bedrock predicts submarine canyon formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Elliot; Finnegan, Noah J.; Mueller, Erich R.; Best, Rebecca J.

    2017-01-01

    Though submarine canyons are first-order topographic features of Earth, the processes responsible for their occurrence remain poorly understood. Potentially analogous studies of terrestrial rivers show that the flux and caliber of transported bedload are significant controls on bedrock incision. Here we hypothesize that coarse sediment load could exert a similar role in the formation of submarine canyons. We conducted a comprehensive empirical analysis of canyon occurrence along the West Coast of the contiguous United States which indicates that submarine canyon occurrence is best predicted by the occurrence of durable crystalline bedrock in adjacent terrestrial catchments. Canyon occurrence is also predicted by the flux of bed sediment to shore from terrestrial streams. Surprisingly, no significant correlation was observed between canyon occurrence and the slope or width of the continental shelf. These findings suggest that canyon incision is promoted by greater yields of durable terrestrial clasts to the shore.

  16. Catastrophic phase transitions and early warnings in a spatial ecological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernández, A; Fort, H

    2009-01-01

    Gradual changes in exploitation, nutrient loading, etc produce shifts between alternative stable states (ASS) in ecosystems which, quite often, are not smooth but abrupt or catastrophic. Early warnings of such catastrophic regime shifts are fundamental for designing management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study the spatial version of a popular ecological model, involving a logistically growing single species subject to exploitation, which is known to exhibit ASS. Spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a carrying capacity parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells is included in the form of diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics—like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness—may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyse how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. We find that possible remedial procedures, which can be followed after these early signals, become more effective as the diffusion becomes lower. Finally, we comment on similarities of and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid–vapour change of state for a fluid like water

  17. Catastrophic Outcomes in Free Tissue Transfer: A Six-Year Review of the NSQIP Database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W. Grant

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. No studies report robust data on the national incidence and risk factors associated with catastrophic medical outcomes following free tissue transfer. Methods. The American College of Surgeons (ACS multicenter, prospective National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP database was used to identify patients who underwent free tissue transfer between 2006 and 2011. Multivariable logistic regression was used for statistical analysis. Results. Over the 6-year study period 2,349 patients in the NSQIP database underwent a free tissue transfer procedure. One hundred and twenty-two patients had at least one catastrophic medical outcome (5.2%. These 122 patients had 151 catastrophic medical outcomes, including 93 postoperative respiratory failure events (4.0%, 14 pulmonary emboli (0.6%, 13 septic shock events (0.5%, 12 myocardial infarctions (0.5%, 6 cardiac arrests (0.3%, 4 strokes (0.2%, 1 coma (0.0%, and 8 deaths (0.3%. Total length of hospital stay was on average 14.7 days longer for patients who suffered a catastrophic medical complication (P<0.001. Independent risk factors were identified. Conclusions. Free tissue transfer is a proven and safe technique. Catastrophic medical complications were infrequent but added significantly to length of hospital stay and patient morbidity.

  18. Catastrophe Bonds. From Structure to Strategy – A Cluster Analysis at European Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura-Gabriela CONSTANTIN

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available As a core activity and discipline of corporate management and corporate governance, risk management is, especially nowadays, a central part in pursuing the sustainable development desiderates, both from the perspective of the firm and of the society as a whole.Considering the negative impact natural catastrophes have on the companies’ and countries’ competitiveness, the development of sustainable financial products that make a contribution to transferring the risk and allocating the capital in case of disasters stands for a continual preoccupation, especially for the (reinsurance industry, while the study of catastrophe bonds – insurance-linked securities – is of interest in the specialized literature. In this context, the scope of the present research is to expand the empirical studies within this field while examining the link between the structure of the catastrophe bonds and the risk management approach employed while accessing the capital markets through this transactions.The methodology entailed clustering a selection of transactions developed by European cedents based on the size of each issue and correlating the results with an innovative score, developed to encompass several important catastrophe bonds structural components.The findings reflect that the general structural elements of the financial transactions reflect closely the corporate approach regarding the innovative risk intermediation instruments for the examined catastrophe bonds deals. The outcomes also emphasize, as expected, that companies with a stronger presence on this market seem to have a more sophisticated risk management approach.

  19. A comparison of regional and global catastrophic hazards associated with energy technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heising, C.D.; Inhaber, H.

    1983-01-01

    This paper reviews some of what is known about the relative catastrophic hazards, on both a regional and global level, of energy technologies, and proposes a logical framework for their comparison. A review of the Inhaber study results is made indicating the relative position of overall nuclear power related risks. Then, concentration is placed on describing the catastrophic and global hazards of energy technologies. Regionally catastrophic hazards include sabotage and other malicious human activities, in addition to severe accidents caused inadvertantly by man, such as fires, reactor core damage events, chemical and poisonous gas releases, fuel storage fires and explosions, in addition to others. Global risks include such hazards as nuclear proliferation, CO 2 , build-up, oil shortages and possible national conflicts over dwindling energy fuels. The conclusion is drawn that consideration of both regional and global catastrophic risks must be made in making energy decisions, and that further study is necessary to better quantify and compare these risks. A simple decision analytic framework for making energy decisions inclusive of catastrophic risk is proposed

  20. Catastrophic out-of-pocket payments for health and poverty nexus: evidence from Senegal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Séne, Ligane Massamba; Cissé, Momath

    2015-09-01

    Out-of-pocket payments are the primary source through which health expenditure is met in Senegal. However, these payments are financial burdens that lead to impoverishment when they become catastrophic. The purpose of this study is to cast light on the determinants of catastrophic household out-of-pocket health expenditures and to assess their implications on poverty. The 2011 poverty monitoring survey is used in this study. This survey aims to draw poverty profiles and to highlight the socio-economic characteristics of different social groups. In line with the concerns raised by the new Supplemental Poverty Measure, poverty statistics are adjusted to take into account household health expenditures and to estimate their impoverishing effects. To identify the determinants of the magnitude of catastrophic health expenditure, we implement a seemingly unrelated equations system of Tobit regressions to take into account censoring through a conditional mixed-process estimator procedure. We identify major causes of catastrophic expenditures, such as the level of overall health spending, the expensiveness of health goods and services, the characteristics of health facilities, the health stock shocks, the lack of insurance, etc. Results show evidence that catastrophic health expenditures jeopardize household welfare for some people that fall into poverty as a result of negative effects on disposable income and disruption of the material living standards of households. Our findings warrant further policy improvements to minimize the financial risks of out-of-pocket health expenditures and increase the efficiency of health care system for more effective poverty reduction strategies.

  1. Carbon dioxide efficiency of terrestrial enhanced weathering

    OpenAIRE

    Moosdorf, Nils; Renforth, Philip; Hartmann, Jens

    2014-01-01

    Terrestrial enhanced weathering, the spreading of ultramafic silicate rock flour to enhance natural weathering rates, has been suggested as part of a strategy to reduce global atmospheric CO2 levels. We budget potential CO2 sequestration against associated CO2 emissions to assess the net CO2 removal of terrestrial enhanced weathering. We combine global spatial data sets of potential source rocks, transport networks, and application areas with associated CO2 emissions in optimistic and pessimi...

  2. Parallel Computing for Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Dali; Post, Wilfred M.; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Berry, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems are a primary component of research on global environmental change. Observational and modeling research on terrestrial ecosystems at the global scale, however, has lagged behind their counterparts for oceanic and atmospheric systems, largely because the unique challenges associated with the tremendous diversity and complexity of terrestrial ecosystems. There are 8 major types of terrestrial ecosystem: tropical rain forest, savannas, deserts, temperate grassland, deciduous forest, coniferous forest, tundra, and chaparral. The carbon cycle is an important mechanism in the coupling of terrestrial ecosystems with climate through biological fluxes of CO 2 . The influence of terrestrial ecosystems on atmospheric CO 2 can be modeled via several means at different timescales. Important processes include plant dynamics, change in land use, as well as ecosystem biogeography. Over the past several decades, many terrestrial ecosystem models (see the 'Model developments' section) have been developed to understand the interactions between terrestrial carbon storage and CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere, as well as the consequences of these interactions. Early TECMs generally adapted simple box-flow exchange models, in which photosynthetic CO 2 uptake and respiratory CO 2 release are simulated in an empirical manner with a small number of vegetation and soil carbon pools. Demands on kinds and amount of information required from global TECMs have grown. Recently, along with the rapid development of parallel computing, spatially explicit TECMs with detailed process based representations of carbon dynamics become attractive, because those models can readily incorporate a variety of additional ecosystem processes (such as dispersal, establishment, growth, mortality etc.) and environmental factors (such as landscape position, pest populations, disturbances, resource manipulations, etc.), and provide information to frame policy options for climate change

  3. Grazing livestock are exposed to terrestrial cyanobacteria

    OpenAIRE

    McGorum , Bruce C; Pirie , R Scott; Glendinning , Laura; McLachlan , Gerry; Metcalf , James S; Banack , Sandra A; Cox , Paul A; Codd , Geoffrey A

    2015-01-01

    While toxins from aquatic cyanobacteria are a well-recognised cause of disease in birds and animals, exposure of grazing livestock to terrestrial cyanobacteria has not been described. This study identified terrestrial cyanobacteria, predominantly Phormidium spp., in the biofilm of plants from most livestock fields investigated. Lower numbers of other cyanobacteria, microalgae and fungi were present on many plants. Cyanobacterial 16S rDNA, predominantly from Phormidium spp., was detected in al...

  4. Linking animals aloft with the terrestrial landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buler, Jeffrey J.; Barrow, Wylie; Boone, Matthew; Dawson, Deanna K.; Diehl, Robert H.; Moore, Frank R.; Randall, Lori A.; Schreckengost, Timothy; Smolinsky, Jaclyn A.

    2018-01-01

    Despite using the aerosphere for many facets of their life, most flying animals (i.e., birds, bats, some insects) are still bound to terrestrial habitats for resting, feeding, and reproduction. Comprehensive broad-scale observations by weather surveillance radars of animals as they leave terrestrial habitats for migration or feeding flights can be used to map their terrestrial distributions either as point locations (e.g., communal roosts) or as continuous surface layers (e.g., animal densities in habitats across a landscape). We discuss some of the technical challenges to reducing measurement biases related to how radars sample the aerosphere and the flight behavior of animals. We highlight a recently developed methodological approach that precisely and quantitatively links the horizontal spatial structure of birds aloft to their terrestrial distributions and provides novel insights into avian ecology and conservation across broad landscapes. Specifically, we present case studies that (1) elucidate how migrating birds contend with crossing ecological barriers and extreme weather events, (2) identify important stopover areas and habitat use patterns of birds along their migration routes, and (3) assess waterfowl response to wetland habitat management and restoration. These studies aid our understanding of how anthropogenic modification of the terrestrial landscape (e.g., urbanization, habitat management), natural geographic features, and weather (e.g., hurricanes) can affect the terrestrial distributions of flying animals.

  5. Anthropogenic transformation of the terrestrial biosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Erle C

    2011-03-13

    Human populations and their use of land have transformed most of the terrestrial biosphere into anthropogenic biomes (anthromes), causing a variety of novel ecological patterns and processes to emerge. To assess whether human populations and their use of land have directly altered the terrestrial biosphere sufficiently to indicate that the Earth system has entered a new geological epoch, spatially explicit global estimates of human populations and their use of land were analysed across the Holocene for their potential to induce irreversible novel transformation of the terrestrial biosphere. Human alteration of the terrestrial biosphere has been significant for more than 8000 years. However, only in the past century has the majority of the terrestrial biosphere been transformed into intensively used anthromes with predominantly novel anthropogenic ecological processes. At present, even were human populations to decline substantially or use of land become far more efficient, the current global extent, duration, type and intensity of human transformation of ecosystems have already irreversibly altered the terrestrial biosphere at levels sufficient to leave an unambiguous geological record differing substantially from that of the Holocene or any prior epoch. It remains to be seen whether the anthropogenic biosphere will be sustained and continue to evolve.

  6. Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

    2010-05-01

    Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

  7. Efficient prevention and compensation of catastrophic risks. The example of damage by nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanden Borre, T.

    2001-01-01

    This book deals with the liability for damage due to catastrophic risks. The nuclear liability law serves as an example of such a catastrophic risk. The question that we tried to answer is what an efficient compensation scheme for catastrophic risks should look like. This question is dealt with both from a law and an economic point of view and from a comparative point of view. The main element in comparing the laws in different countries is the comparison between Belgian and Dutch civil (nuclear) liability law. But also American nuclear liability law is part of the analysis (the Price-Anderson Act). The book consists of four parts: (nuclear) civil liability law, legal and economic approach, analysis of other compensation systems and conclusions. The big themes in this book are therefore civil (nuclear) liability law, insurance law and environmental liability law [nl

  8. Pain Catastrophizing in Borderline Morbidly Obese and Morbidly Obese Individuals with Osteoarthritic Knee Pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamara J Somers

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: There is limited information about how morbidly obese osteoarthritis (OA patients cope with the pain they experience. Pain catastrophizing is an important predictor of pain and adjustment in persons with persistent pain. This may be particularly relevant in the morbidly obese (body mass index [BMI] of 40 kg/m2 or greater OA population at risk for increased pain. The present study first examined whether borderline morbidly obese and morbidly obese OA patients report higher levels of pain catastrophizing than a sample of OA patients in the overweight and obese category (BMI between 25 kg/m2 and 34 kg/m2. Next, it examined how pain catastrophizing is related to important indexes of pain and adjustment in borderline morbidly obese and morbidly obese OA patients.

  9. Groundwater and Terrestrial Water Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodell, Matthew; Chambers, Don P.; Famiglietti, James S.

    2011-01-01

    Most people think of groundwater as a resource, but it is also a useful indicator of climate variability and human impacts on the environment. Groundwater storage varies slowly relative to other non-frozen components of the water cycle, encapsulating long period variations and trends in surface meteorology. On seasonal to interannual timescales, groundwater is as dynamic as soil moisture, and it has been shown that groundwater storage changes have contributed to sea level variations. Groundwater monitoring well measurements are too sporadic and poorly assembled outside of the United States and a few other nations to permit direct global assessment of groundwater variability. However, observational estimates of terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations from the GRACE satellites largely represent groundwater storage variations on an interannual basis, save for high latitude/altitude (dominated by snow and ice) and wet tropical (surface water) regions. A figure maps changes in mean annual TWS from 2009 to 2010, based on GRACE, reflecting hydroclimatic conditions in 2010. Severe droughts impacted Russia and the Amazon, and drier than normal weather also affected the Indochinese peninsula, parts of central and southern Africa, and western Australia. Groundwater depletion continued in northern India, while heavy rains in California helped to replenish aquifers that have been depleted by drought and withdrawals for irrigation, though they are still below normal levels. Droughts in northern Argentina and western China similarly abated. Wet weather raised aquifer levels broadly across western Europe. Rains in eastern Australia caused flooding to the north and helped to mitigate a decade long drought in the south. Significant reductions in TWS seen in the coast of Alaska and the Patagonian Andes represent ongoing glacier melt, not groundwater depletion. Figures plot time series of zonal mean and global GRACE derived non-seasonal TWS anomalies (deviation from the mean of

  10. Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tharani Loganathan

    Full Text Available While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking.We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.A two-year prospective, hospital-based study was conducted from 2008 to 2010 in an urban (Kuala Lumpur and rural (Kuala Terengganu setting in Malaysia. All children under the age of 5 years admitted for acute gastroenteritis were included. Patients were screened for rotavirus and information on healthcare expenditure was obtained.Of the 658 stool samples collected at both centers, 248 (38% were positive for rotavirus. Direct and indirect costs incurred were significantly higher in Kuala Lumpur compared with Kuala Terengganu (US$222 Vs. US$45; p<0.001. The mean direct and indirect costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis consisted 20% of monthly household income in Kuala Lumpur, as compared with only 5% in Kuala Terengganu. Direct medical costs paid out-of-pocket caused 141 (33% households in Kuala Lumpur to experience catastrophic expenditure and 11 (3% households to incur poverty. However in Kuala Terengganu, only one household (0.5% experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure and none were impoverished. The lowest income quintile in Kuala Lumpur was more likely to experience catastrophic payments compared to the highest quintile (87% vs 8%. The concentration index for out-of-pocket healthcare payments was closer to zero at Kuala Lumpur (0.03 than at Kuala Terengganu (0.24.While urban households were wealthier, healthcare expenditure due to gastroenteritis had more catastrophic and poverty impact on the urban poor. Universal rotavirus vaccination would reduce both disease burden and health

  11. Forecasting scenarios of collision catastrophes produced by celestial body falls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shor, V.; Kochetova, O.; Chernetenko, Y.; Zheleznov, N.; Deryugin, V.; Zaitsev, A.

    2014-07-01

    The subject under discussion arose in the course of developing a computer program, which gives the possibility for numerical and graphical modeling of the scenarios of catastrophes caused by collisions of cosmic bodies with the Earth. It is expected that this program can be used for computer-assisted training of the personnel of units of the Ministry for Emergency Situations in the case of a situation caused by the fall of a celestial body on the Earth. Also, it is anticipated that the program can be used in real situations when a dangerous body is discovered on an orbit leading to an imminent collision with the Earth. From the scientific point of view, both variants of use require solving of analogous tasks. In what follows, we discuss both variants. 1. The computation of the circumstances for a fall on the Earth (or approach within short distance) of a real body begins with the determination of its orbit from the observations available using the least-squares method. The mean square error of the representation of the observations on the base of the initial values of the coordinates and the velocities is computed, as well as their covariance matrix. Then, the trajectory of the body's motion is followed by numerical integration starting from the osculating epoch to the collision with the Earth or to its flyby. The computer program takes into account the various cases: at the initial moment, the body can move away from or approach the Earth, it can be outside the sphere of action or inside it. At the moment, when the body enters the sphere of action, the coordinates of the center of the dispersion ellipse on the target plane are computed as well as the dimensions of its axes. Using these data, the probability of collision with the Earth is calculated. Then, the point of penetration of the body into the Earth's atmosphere at a given height above the level of the Earth geoid is determined. In case the body is passing by the Earth, the minimum distance of the body from

  12. Nonlinear analysis of the cooperation of strategic alliances through stochastic catastrophe theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yan; Hu, Bin; Wu, Jiang; Zhang, Jianhua

    2014-04-01

    The excitation intervention of strategic alliance may change with the changes in the parameters of circumstance (e.g., external alliance tasks). As a result, the stable cooperation between members may suffer a complete unplanned betrayal at last. However, current perspectives on strategic alliances cannot adequately explain this transition mechanism. This study is a first attempt to analyze this nonlinear phenomenon through stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT). A stochastic dynamics model is constructed based on the cooperation of strategic alliance from the perspective of evolutionary game theory. SCT explains the discontinuous changes caused by the changes in environmental parameters. Theoretically, we identify conditions where catastrophe can occur in the cooperation of alliance members.

  13. Optimism Moderates the Influence of Pain Catastrophizing on Shoulder Pain Outcome: A Longitudinal Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coronado, Rogelio A; Simon, Corey B; Lentz, Trevor A; Gay, Charles W; Mackie, Lauren N; George, Steven Z

    2017-01-01

    Study Design Secondary analysis of prospectively collected data. Background An abundance of evidence has highlighted the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on clinical outcomes. Less is known about the interaction of positive psychological resources with these pain-associated distress factors. Objective To assess whether optimism moderates the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on 3-month clinical outcomes in patients with shoulder pain. Methods Data from 63 individuals with shoulder pain (mean ± SD age, 38.8 ± 14.9 years; 30 female) were examined. Demographic, psychological, and clinical characteristics were obtained at baseline. Validated measures were used to assess optimism (Life Orientation Test-Revised), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), fear avoidance (Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire physical activity subscale), shoulder pain intensity (Brief Pain Inventory), and shoulder function (Pennsylvania Shoulder Score function subscale). Shoulder pain and function were reassessed at 3 months. Regression models assessed the influence of (1) pain catastrophizing and optimism and (2) fear avoidance and optimism. The final multivariable models controlled for factors of age, sex, education, and baseline scores, and included 3-month pain intensity and function as separate dependent variables. Results Shoulder pain (mean difference, -1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.1, -1.2) and function (mean difference, 2.4; 95% CI: 0.3, 4.4) improved over 3 months. In multivariable analyses, there was an interaction between pain catastrophizing and optimism (β = 0.19; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.35) for predicting 3-month shoulder function (F = 16.8, R 2 = 0.69, Poptimism lessened the influence of pain catastrophizing on function. There was no evidence of significant moderation of fear-avoidance beliefs for 3-month shoulder pain (P = .090) or function (P = .092). Conclusion Optimism decreased the negative influence of pain

  14. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Abt. Radiologie; Spyridonidis, Alexandros [Freiburg Univ. (DE). Abt. Innere Medizin 1 (Haematologie und Onkologie)

    2002-03-01

    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  15. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg

    2002-01-01

    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  16. Elementary catastrophe theory modelling of Duffing's equation for seismic excitation of nuclear power facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alesso, H.P.

    1979-01-01

    Elementary catastrophe theory can provide conceptual insight into some aspects of a variety of problems in dynamics. It is a qualitative tool with some quantitative results. In this paper, it is applied to forced nonlinear vibrations of seismic disturbances, which may be approximated by Duffin's equation. The behavior of such a system fits naturally into ECT modelling, where changes in parameters of the system lead to 'jump' type behavior. The important conclusion is that nonlinear oscillators can exhibit elementary catastrophes, but the design engineer may be able to manipulate characteristics of the system in order to avoid the 'jump' behavior of the response. (Auth.)

  17. Pain catastrophizing as a risk factor for chronic pain after total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burns LC

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Lindsay C Burns,1–3 Sarah E Ritvo,1 Meaghan K Ferguson,1 Hance Clarke,3–5 Ze’ev Seltzer,3,5 Joel Katz1,3–5 1Department of Psychology, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Arthritis Research Centre of Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 3Department of Anesthesia and Pain Management, Toronto General Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada; 4Department of Anesthesia, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 5Centre for the Study of Pain, Faculties of Dentistry and Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada Background: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA is a common and costly surgical procedure. Despite high success rates, many TKA patients develop chronic pain in the months and years following surgery, constituting a public health burden. Pain catastrophizing is a construct that reflects anxious preoccupation with pain, inability to inhibit pain-related fears, amplification of the significance of pain vis-à-vis health implications, and a sense of helplessness regarding pain. Recent research suggests that it may be an important risk factor for untoward TKA outcomes. To clarify this impact, we systematically reviewed the literature to date on pain catastrophizing as a prospective predictor of chronic pain following TKA. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases to identify articles related to pain catastrophizing, TKA, risk models, and chronic pain. We reviewed titles and abstracts to identify original research articles that met our specified inclusion criteria. Included articles were then rated for methodological quality. including methodological quality. Due to heterogeneity in follow-up, analyses, and outcomes reported across studies, a quantitative meta-analysis could not be performed. Results: We identified six prospective longitudinal studies with small-to-mid-sized samples that met the inclusion criteria. Despite considerable variability in reported pain outcomes, pain catastrophizing was identified as a significant

  18. Active control with delay of catastrophic motion and horseshoes chaos in a single well Duffing oscillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nana Nbendjo, B.R.; Salissou, Y.; Woafo, P.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, the control of escape and Melnikov chaos of an harmonically excited particle from a catastrophic (unbounded) single well phi 4 potential is considered. In the linear limit, the range of the control gain parameter leading to good control is obtained and the effect of time delays on the control force is taken into account. The approximate critical external forcing amplitudes for catastrophe and chaos are obtained by using the energy and Melnikov methods. The control efficiency is found by analysing the behaviour of the external critical forcing amplitude of the controlled system as compared to that of the uncontrolled system

  19. Catastrophic Failure and Fault-Tolerant Design of IGBT Power Electronic Converters - An Overview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai

    2013-01-01

    Reliability is one of the key issues for the application of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) in power electronic converters. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT wear out failure induced by accumulated degradation and catastrophic failure triggered by single-event ove......Reliability is one of the key issues for the application of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) in power electronic converters. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT wear out failure induced by accumulated degradation and catastrophic failure triggered by single...

  20. Press/Pulse: Explaining selective terrestrial extinctions at the Cretaceous/Palaeogene boundary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arens, Nan Crystal

    2010-05-01

    Single-cause mass extinction scenarios require extreme conditions to generate sufficiently strong kill mechanisms. Such dire effects are commonly at odds with the taxonomic selectivity that characterizes most extinction events. In response, some researchers have proposed that the interaction of a variety of factors typify episodes of elevated extinction. Previous work (Arens & West 2008 Paleobiology 34:456-471) has shown that a combination of press and pulse disturbances increases the probability of elevated extinction. The press/pulse contrast is borrowed from community ecology, where researchers have long recognized that the ecological response to long-term stress differs from that of an instantaneous catastrophe. Scaled to the macroevolutionary level, press disturbances alter community composition by placing multigenerational stress on populations. Press disturbances do not necessarily cause mortality, but reduce population size by a variety of mechanisms such as curtailed reproduction. Pulse disturbances are sudden catastrophic events that cause extensive mortality. Either press or pulse disturbances of sufficient magnitude can cause extinction, however elevated extinction occurs more commonly during the coincidence of lower-magnitude press and pulse events. The Cretaceous/Palaeogene (K/P) extinction is one of the best examples of a press/pulse extinction. Deccan Trap volcanism, which straddled the K/P boundary, altered atmospheric composition and climate. This episodic volcanism likely contributed to the climate instability observed in terrestrial ecosystems and exerted press stress. Pulse disturbance was produced by bolide impact, which punctuated the end of the Cretaceous. The press/pulse mechanism also more effectively explains selectivity in terrestrial vertebrate and plant extinctions at the K/P boundary than do single-mechanisms scenarios. For example, why do environmentally sensitive vertebrates such as amphibians experience no extinction? And why do

  1. Microplastics in the terrestrial ecosystem: Implications for Lumbricus terrestris (Oligochaeta, Lumbricidae)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huerta Lwanga, Esperanza; Gertsen, H.F.; Gooren, H.; Peters, P.D.; Salanki, T.E.; Ploeg, van der M.J.C.; Besseling, E.; Koelmans, A.A.; Geissen, V.

    2016-01-01

    Plastic debris is widespread in the environment, but information on the effects of microplastics on terrestrial fauna is completely lacking. Here, we studied the survival and fitness of the earthworm Lumbricus terrestris (Oligochaeta, Lumbricidae) exposed to microplastics (Polyethylene, <150 μm)

  2. From a Catastrophe Itself to Cata/strophic Reading. The Poetry of Charles Baudelaire in the Account of Jorge Semprúna L’écriture ou la vie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith Kasper

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay addresses the instable meaning of the term catastrophe over the course of history. The first part takes leave of the “the tiny fissures” in the continuous catastrophe noted by Walter Benjamin to develop a philology of the cata/strophe. This philology does not only register a given meaning (for instance, of the catastrophe, but intervenes actively as disruption. It insists on the strophe in the catastrophe, transforming catastrophe into cata/strophe that, in fatal situations, permits the poetic potential to become a dynamic force that can, at least on the linguistic level, open toward other dimensions without denying the catastrophe itself. The second part is dedicated to a reading of Jorge Semprún’s autobiographical novel L’écriture ou la vie from the perspective of this philological concept. It seeks to show how Semprún’s citing and reciting of Baudelaire’s strophes in the putrid atmosphere of the Buchenwald concentration camp literally produce, on the level of the signifiers, fresh air to breathe.

  3. Factors affecting catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses in China: policy implications of universal health insurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Wu, Qunhong; Xu, Ling; Legge, David; Hao, Yanhua; Gao, Lijun; Ning, Ning; Wan, Gang

    2012-09-01

    To assess the degree to which the Chinese people are protected from catastrophic household expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses and to explore the health system and structural factors influencing the first of these outcomes. Data were derived from the Fourth National Health Service Survey. An analysis of catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses was undertaken with a sample of 55 556 households of different characteristics and located in rural and urban settings in different parts of the country. Logistic regression was used to identify the determinants of catastrophic health expenditure. The rate of catastrophic health expenditure was 13.0%; that of impoverishment was 7.5%. Rates of catastrophic health expenditure were higher among households having members who were hospitalized, elderly, or chronically ill, as well as in households in rural or poorer regions. A combination of adverse factors increased the risk of catastrophic health expenditure. Families enrolled in the urban employee or resident insurance schemes had lower rates of catastrophic health expenditure than those enrolled in the new rural corporative scheme. The need for and use of health care, demographics, type of benefit package and type of provider payment method were the determinants of catastrophic health expenditure. Although China has greatly expanded health insurance coverage, financial protection remains insufficient. Policy-makers should focus on designing improved insurance plans by expanding the benefit package, redesigning cost sharing arrangements and provider payment methods and developing more effective expenditure control strategies.

  4. Disentangling phase transitions and critical points in the proton–neutron interacting boson model by catastrophe theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.E. García-Ramos

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We introduce the basic concepts of catastrophe theory needed to derive analytically the phase diagram of the proton–neutron interacting boson model (IBM-2. Previous studies [1–3] were based on numerical solutions. We here explain the whole IBM-2 phase diagram including the precise order of the phase transitions in terms of the cusp catastrophe.

  5. Risk indices of an ecological catastrophe because of a severe accident, its insurance, and their measurement units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pampuro, V.I.

    2001-01-01

    The critical analysis of the existing measurement units of the risk of an ecological catastrophe because of severe accidents is performed. The mistake of using the measurement unit 'reactor/year' for estimation of ecological catastrophe's consequences is shown. The complex for risk assessment by costs to ensure the ecological safety is introduced. The index of virtual accident insurance is suggested

  6. Terrestrial Energy bets on molten salt reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2015-01-01

    Terrestrial Energy is a Canadian enterprise, founded in 2013, for marketing the integral molten salt reactor (IMSR). A first prototype (called MSRE and with an energy output of 8 MW) was designed and operated between 1965 and 1969 by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. IMSR is a small, modular reactor with a thermal energy output of 400 MW. According to Terrestrial Energy the technology of conventional power reactors is too complicated and too expensive. On the contrary IMSR's technology appears to be simple, easy to operate and affordable. With a staff of 30 people Terrestrial Energy appears to be a start-up in the nuclear sector. A process of pre-licensing will be launched in 2016 with the Canadian nuclear safety authority. (A.C.)

  7. Morphological response of a barrier island system on a catastrophic event

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fruergaard, Mikkel; Kroon, Aart

    2016-01-01

    storms are capable of moving large amounts of sediments over relatively short time-periods and can create barrier shoals, whereas moderate storms mostly rework the shoal or barrier and create more local erosion and/or landward migration. Catastrophic storms substantially influence long-term and large...

  8. A model of pathways to artificial superintelligence catastrophe for risk and decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Anthony M.; Baum, Seth D.

    2017-03-01

    An artificial superintelligence (ASI) is an artificial intelligence that is significantly more intelligent than humans in all respects. Whilst ASI does not currently exist, some scholars propose that it could be created sometime in the future, and furthermore that its creation could cause a severe global catastrophe, possibly even resulting in human extinction. Given the high stakes, it is important to analyze ASI risk and factor the risk into decisions related to ASI research and development. This paper presents a graphical model of major pathways to ASI catastrophe, focusing on ASI created via recursive self-improvement. The model uses the established risk and decision analysis modelling paradigms of fault trees and influence diagrams in order to depict combinations of events and conditions that could lead to AI catastrophe, as well as intervention options that could decrease risks. The events and conditions include select aspects of the ASI itself as well as the human process of ASI research, development and management. Model structure is derived from published literature on ASI risk. The model offers a foundation for rigorous quantitative evaluation and decision-making on the long-term risk of ASI catastrophe.

  9. Changes in Climate Extremes and Catastrophic Events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Lei; Yao, Zhi-Jun; Jiang, Liguang

    2016-01-01

    The spatiotemporal changes in 21 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation for the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012 were investigated on the basis of daily temperature and precipitation data from 70 meteorological stations. Changes in catastrophic events, such as droughts, floods, and s...

  10. Optimal design of earth-moving machine elements with cusp catastrophe theory application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitukhin, A. V.; Skobtsov, I. G.

    2017-10-01

    This paper deals with the optimal design problem solution for the operator of an earth-moving machine with a roll-over protective structure (ROPS) in terms of the catastrophe theory. A brief description of the catastrophe theory is presented, the cusp catastrophe is considered, control parameters are viewed as Gaussian stochastic quantities in the first part of the paper. The statement of optimal design problem is given in the second part of the paper. It includes the choice of the objective function and independent design variables, establishment of system limits. The objective function is determined as mean total cost that includes initial cost and cost of failure according to the cusp catastrophe probability. Algorithm of random search method with an interval reduction subject to side and functional constraints is given in the last part of the paper. The way of optimal design problem solution can be applied to choose rational ROPS parameters, which will increase safety and reduce production and exploitation expenses.

  11. Metallicity at interphase boundaries due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity

    KAUST Repository

    Albar, Arwa; Tahini, Hassan Ali; Schwingenschlö gl, Udo

    2018-01-01

    the electronic states at stoichiometric SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries. In this system, one would not expect polar catastrophe to have a role according to state-of-the-art theory because the interface lacks formal charge discontinuity. However, we observe

  12. Insights into Participants' Behaviours in Educational Games, Simulations and Workshops: A Catastrophe Theory Application to Motivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cryer, Patricia

    1988-01-01

    Develops models for participants' behaviors in games, simulations, and workshops based on Catastrophe Theory and Herzberg's two-factor theory of motivation. Examples are given of how these models can be used, both for describing and understanding the behaviors of individuals, and for eliciting insights into why participants behave as they do. (11…

  13. Perceptions of Challenge: The Role of Catastrophe Theory in Piano Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugos, Jennifer; Lee, William

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the perceptions of private piano instructors on the role of challenge in teaching and learning the piano and to examine the potential application of catastrophe theory in understanding the role and outcomes of such challenges. A 23-item electronic questionnaire was administered to collect quantitative and…

  14. Metallicity at interphase boundaries due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity

    KAUST Repository

    Albar, Arwa

    2018-02-09

    The electronic properties of interphase boundaries are of basic importance for most materials, particularly when those properties deviate strongly from the bulk behavior. We introduce a mechanism that can result in metallicity at stoichiometric interphase boundaries between semiconductors based on the idea of polar catastrophe, which is usually considered only in the context of heterostructures. To this end, we perform ab initio calculations within density functional theory to investigate the electronic states at stoichiometric SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries. In this system, one would not expect polar catastrophe to have a role according to state-of-the-art theory because the interface lacks formal charge discontinuity. However, we observe the formation of a hole gas between the semiconductors SnO and SnO2. To explain these findings, we provide a generalized theory based on the idea that the charge density discontinuity between SnO and SnO2, a consequence of lattice mismatch, drives a polar catastrophe scenario. As a result, SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries can develop metallicity depending on the grain size. The concept of metallicity due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity is of general validity and applies to many interphase boundaries with lattice mismatch.

  15. Ethical aspects of technogenic catastrophes sequences on the example of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mel'nov, S.B.; Sarana, Yu.V.

    2009-01-01

    It is examined such ethical aspects of technogenic catastrophes sequences on the example of Chernobyl disaster, as violation of individual right to get information about the environment condition, getting the liquidator status, maintenance of all ethical norms while holding of biomedical research on disaster victims, and forming of social-ecological stress. (authors)

  16. Predicting Catastrophic Phase Inversion on the Basis of Droplet Coalescence Kinetics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vaessen, G.E.J.; Visschers, M.; Stein, H.N.

    1996-01-01

    A predictive model for catastrophic phase inversion, based on the kinetics of droplet breakup and coalescence, is presented here. Two inversion mechanisms can be distinguished, depending on the direction of the phase inversion process. With the surfactant predominantly present in the dispersed

  17. Assessing and modelling catastrophic risk perceptions and attitudes in agriculture: a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2008-01-01

    Catastrophic risks result in high losses in agriculture. To cope with such losses farmers need to apply risk management strategies to balance their profits and risks. Therefore risk assessment and risk modelling are important to support farm-level decision-making. This paper (1) reviews the

  18. Should catastrophic risks be included in a regulated competitive health insurance market?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.P.M.M. van de Ven (Wynand); F.T. Schut (Erik)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractIn 1988 the Dutch government launched a proposal for a national health insurance based on regulated competition. The mandatory benefits package should be offered by competing insurers and should cover both non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care, physician services and drugs) and

  19. New Developments Regarding the KT Event and Other Catastrophes in Earth History

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    Papers presented at the conference on New Developments Regarding the KT Event and Other Catastrophes in Earth History are included. Topics covered include: trajectories of ballistic impact ejecta on a rotating earth; axial focusing of impact energy in the earth's interior: proof-of-principle tests of a new hypothesis; in search of Nemesis; impact, extinctions, volcanism, glaciations, and tectonics: matches and mismatches.

  20. Catastrophic Misinterpretations as a Predictor of Symptom Change during Treatment for Panic Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teachman, Bethany A.; Marker, Craig D.; Clerkin, Elise M.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Cognitive models of panic disorder suggest that change in catastrophic misinterpretations of bodily sensations will predict symptom reduction. To examine change processes, we used a repeated measures design to evaluate whether the trajectory of change in misinterpretations over the course of 12-week cognitive behavior therapy is related…

  1. Phase diagram of N = 2 superconformal field theories and bifurcation sets in catastrophe theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kei Ito.

    1989-08-01

    Phase diagrams of N=2 superconformal field theories are mapped out. It is shown that they coincide with bifurcation sets in catastrophe theory. The results are applied to the determination of renormalization group flows triggered by a combination of two or more relevant operators. (author). 13 refs, 2 figs

  2. Co-delivery of paclitaxel and cetuximab by nanodiamond enhances mitotic catastrophe and tumor inhibition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yu-Wei; Raj, Emmanuel Naveen; Liao, Wei-Siang; Lin, Johnson; Liu, Kuang-Kai; Chen, Ting-Hua; Cheng, Hsiao-Chun; Wang, Chi-Ching; Li, Lily Yi; Chen, Chinpiao; Chao, Jui-I

    2017-08-29

    The poor intracellular uptake and non-specific binding of anticancer drugs into cancer cells are the bottlenecks in cancer therapy. Nanocarrier platforms provide the opportunities to improve the drug efficacy. Here we show a carbon-based nanomaterial nanodiamond (ND) that carried paclitaxel (PTX), a microtubule inhibitor, and cetuximab (Cet), a specific monoclonal antibody against epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), inducing mitotic catastrophe and tumor inhibition in human colorectal cancer (CRC). ND-PTX blocked the mitotic progression, chromosomal separation, and induced apoptosis in the CRC cells; however, NDs did not induce these effects. Conjugation of ND-PTX with Cet (ND-PTX-Cet) was specifically binding to the EGFR-positive CRC cells and enhanced the mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis induction. Besides, ND-PTX-Cet markedly decreased tumor size in the xenograft EGFR-expressed human CRC tumors of nude mice. Moreover, ND-PTX-Cet induced the mitotic marker protein phospho-histone 3 (Ser10) and apoptotic protein active-caspase 3 for mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis. Taken together, this study demonstrated that the co-delivery of PTX and Cet by ND enhanced the effects of mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis in vitro and in vivo, which may be applied in the human CRC therapy.

  3. Penetration of n-hexadecane and water into wood under conditions simulating catastrophic floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganna Baglayeva; Wayne S. Seames; Charles R. Frihart; Jane O' Dell; Evguenii I. Kozliak

    2017-01-01

    To simulate fuel oil spills occurring during catastrophic floods, short-term absorption of two chemicals, n-hexadecane (representative of semivolatile organic compounds in fuel oil) and water, into southern yellow pine was gravimetrically monitored as a function of time at ambient conditions. Different scenarios were run on the basis of (1) the...

  4. Ancient Terrestrial Carbon: Lost and Found

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, K. H.

    2017-12-01

    Carbon fluxes in terrestrial environments dominate the global carbon cycle. The fluxes of terrestrial carbon are strongly tied to regional climate due to the influences of temperature, water, and nutrient dynamics on plant productivity. However, climate also influences the destruction of terrestrial organic matter, through weathering, erosion, and biomass loss via fire and oxidative microbial processes. Organic geochemical methods enable us to interrogate past terrestrial carbon dynamics and learn how continental processes might accelerate, or mitigate carbon transfer to the atmosphere, and the associated greenhouse warming. Terrestrial soil systems represent the weathering rind of the continents, and are inherently non-depositional and erosive. The production, transport, and depositional processes affecting organics in continental settings each impart their own biases on the amount and characteristics of preserved carbon. Typically, the best archives for biomarker records are sediments in ancient lakes or subaqueous fans, which represents a preservation bias that tends to favor wetter environments. Paleosols, or ancient soils, formed under depositional conditions that, for one reason or another, truncated soil ablation, erosion, or other loss processes. In modern soils, widely ranging organic carbon abundances are almost always substantially greater than the trace amounts of carbon left behind in ancient soils. Even so, measureable amounts of organic biomarkers persist in paleosols. We have been investigating processes that preserve soil organic carbon on geologic timescales, and how these mechanisms may be sensitive to past climate change. Climate-linked changes in temperature, moisture, pH, and weathering processes can impact carbon preservation via organo-mineral sorption, soil biogeochemistry, and stability based on the physical and chemical properties of organic compounds. These will be discussed and illustrated with examples from our studies of Cenozoic

  5. Evolutionary tracks of the terrestrial planets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsui, Takafumi; Abe, Yutaka

    1987-01-01

    On the basis of the model proposed by Matsui and Abe, the authors show that two major factors - distance from the Sun and the efficiency of retention of accretional energy - control the early evolution of the terrestrial planets. A diagram of accretional energy versus the optical depth of a proto-atmosphere provides a means to follow the evolutionary track of surface temperature of the terrestrial planets and an explanation for why the third planet in our solar system is an 'aqua'-planet. 15 refs; 3 figs

  6. Magnetic reconnection in the terrestrial magnetosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feldman, W.C.

    1984-01-01

    An overview is given of quantitative comparisons between measured phenomena in the terrestrial magnetosphere thought to be associated with magnetic reconnection, and related theoretical predictions based on Petschek's simple model. Although such a comparison cannot be comprehensive because of the extended nature of the process and the relatively few in situ multipoint measurements made to date, the agreement is impressive where comparisons have been possible. This result leaves little doubt that magnetic reconnection does indeed occur in the terrestrial magnetosphere. The maximum reconnection rate, expressed in terms of the inflow Mach number, M/sub A/, is measured to be M/sub A/ = 0.2 +- 0.1

  7. Terrestrial propagation of long electromagnetic waves

    CERN Document Server

    Galejs, Janis; Fock, V A

    2013-01-01

    Terrestrial Propagation of Long Electromagnetic Waves deals with the propagation of long electromagnetic waves confined principally to the shell between the earth and the ionosphere, known as the terrestrial waveguide. The discussion is limited to steady-state solutions in a waveguide that is uniform in the direction of propagation. Wave propagation is characterized almost exclusively by mode theory. The mathematics are developed only for sources at the ground surface or within the waveguide, including artificial sources as well as lightning discharges. This volume is comprised of nine chapte

  8. Terrestrial and exposure histories of Antarctic meteorites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishiizumi, K.

    1986-01-01

    Records of cosmogenic effects were studied in a large suite of Antarctic meteorites. The cosmogenic nuclide measurements together with cosmic ray track measurements on Antartic meteorites provide information such as exposure age, terrestrial age, size and depth in meteoroid or parent body, influx rate in the past, and pairing. The terrestrail age is the time period between the fall of the meteorite on the Earth and the present. To define terrestrial age, two or more nuclides with different half-lives and possibly noble gases are required. The cosmogenic radionuclides used are C-14, Kr-81, Cl-36, Al-26, Be-10, Mn-53, and K-40

  9. Terrestrial and exposure histories of Antarctic meteorites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishiizumi, K.

    1986-01-01

    Records of cosmogenic effects were studied in a large suite of Antarctic meteorites. The cosmogenic nuclide measurements together with cosmic ray track measurements on Antartic meteorites provide information such as exposure age, terrestrial age, size and depth in meteoroid or parent body, influx rate in the past, and pairing. The terrestrail age is the time period between the fall of the meteorite on the Earth and the present. To define terrestrial age, two or more nuclides with different half-lives and possibly noble gases are required. The cosmogenic radionuclides used are C-14, Kr-81, Cl-36, Al-26, Be-10, Mn-53, and K-40.

  10. The Chernobyl catastrophe consequences in the Republic of Belarus. National report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konoplya, E.F.

    1996-03-01

    The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. The Chernobyl NPP catastrophe has led to the contamination of almost the fourth part of the territory of Belarus where there lived 2,2 million people. The damage caused to the republic by the catastrophe makes up 32 annual budgets of the republic of the pre-accident period in account for the 30-years period for its overcoming. Radioecological situation in Belarus is characterized by complexity and heterogeneous contamination of the territory by different radionuclides and their presence on all the components of the environment. It stipulates the plurality of ways of external and internal irradiation of the population and jeopardizes its health. There is registered the worsening of the population's health, of evacuated and inhabiting the contaminated areas as well, with increase of a number of somatic diseases, including oncological diseases, there are disorders in the metabolic processes and functions of the main systems of the organism. The demographic indices are decreasing. Particular concern causes the children's morbidity growth and genetic consequences of the accident. The contamination of agricultural lands has stipulated in the neighboring the Chernobyl NPP zone the impossibility of their use for food production. On the other lands it has been required to re-profile the farms and create new technologies of the agricultural production. There have been revealed the destructive tendencies in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population require considerable optimization. In spite of that for ten years passed after the catastrophe the discrepancy of its estimations has not been overcome completely. At the same time

  11. GDP-to-GTP exchange on the microtubule end can contribute to the frequency of catastrophe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piedra, Felipe-Andrés; Kim, Tae; Garza, Emily S; Geyer, Elisabeth A; Burns, Alexander; Ye, Xuecheng; Rice, Luke M

    2016-11-07

    Microtubules are dynamic polymers of αβ-tubulin that have essential roles in chromosome segregation and organization of the cytoplasm. Catastrophe-the switch from growing to shrinking-occurs when a microtubule loses its stabilizing GTP cap. Recent evidence indicates that the nucleotide on the microtubule end controls how tightly an incoming subunit will be bound (trans-acting GTP), but most current models do not incorporate this information. We implemented trans-acting GTP into a computational model for microtubule dynamics. In simulations, growing microtubules often exposed terminal GDP-bound subunits without undergoing catastrophe. Transient GDP exposure on the growing plus end slowed elongation by reducing the number of favorable binding sites on the microtubule end. Slower elongation led to erosion of the GTP cap and an increase in the frequency of catastrophe. Allowing GDP-to-GTP exchange on terminal subunits in simulations mitigated these effects. Using mutant αβ-tubulin or modified GTP, we showed experimentally that a more readily exchangeable nucleotide led to less frequent catastrophe. Current models for microtubule dynamics do not account for GDP-to-GTP exchange on the growing microtubule end, so our findings provide a new way of thinking about the molecular events that initiate catastrophe. © 2016 Piedra et al. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). Two months after publication it is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).

  12. Microplastics in the Terrestrial Ecosystem: Implications for Lumbricus terrestris (Oligochaeta, Lumbricidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huerta Lwanga, Esperanza; Gertsen, Hennie; Gooren, Harm; Peters, Piet; Salánki, Tamás; van der Ploeg, Martine; Besseling, Ellen; Koelmans, Albert A; Geissen, Violette

    2016-03-01

    Plastic debris is widespread in the environment, but information on the effects of microplastics on terrestrial fauna is completely lacking. Here, we studied the survival and fitness of the earthworm Lumbricus terrestris (Oligochaeta, Lumbricidae) exposed to microplastics (Polyethylene, digestion of ingested organic matter, microplastic was concentrated in cast, especially at the lowest dose (i.e., 7% in litter) because that dose had the highest proportion of digestible organic matter. Whereas 50 percent of the microplastics had a size of earthworms. These concentration-transport and size-selection mechanisms may have important implications for fate and risk of microplastic in terrestrial ecosystems.

  13. Safety, danger and catastrophe inevitability in operation of safety-critical software algorithms: a possible new look at software safety analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Povyakalo, A.A.

    2000-01-01

    The paper provides basic definitions and describes the basic procedure of the Formal Qualitative Safety Analysis (FQSA) of critical software algorithms. The procedure is described by C-based pseudo-code. It uses the notion of weakest precondition and representation of a given critical algorithm by a Gurevich's Abstract State Mashine (GASM). For a given GASM and a given Catastrophe Condition the procedure results in a Catastrophe Inevitability Condition (it means that every sequence of algorithm steps lead to a catastrophe early or late), Danger Condition (it means that next step may lead to a catastrophe or make a catastrophe to be inevitable, but a catastrophe may be prevented yet), Safety Condition (it means that a next step can not lead to a catastrophe or make a catastrophe to be inevitable). The using of proposed procedure is illustrated by a simplest test example of algorithm. The FQSA provides a logical basis for PSA of critical algorithm. (author)

  14. Forest inventory with terrestrial LiDAR

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bauwens, Sébastien; Bartholomeus, Harm; Calders, Kim; Lejeune, Philippe

    2016-01-01

    The application of static terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) in forest inventories is becoming more effective. Nevertheless, the occlusion effect is still limiting the processing efficiency to extract forest attributes. The use of a mobile laser scanner (MLS) would reduce this occlusion. In this

  15. High efficiency, long life terrestrial solar panel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, T.; Khemthong, S.; Ling, R.; Olah, S.

    1977-01-01

    The design of a high efficiency, long life terrestrial module was completed. It utilized 256 rectangular, high efficiency solar cells to achieve high packing density and electrical output. Tooling for the fabrication of solar cells was in house and evaluation of the cell performance was begun. Based on the power output analysis, the goal of a 13% efficiency module was achievable.

  16. Solar and terrestrial radiation: methods and measurements

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Coulson, Kinsell L

    1975-01-01

    ... AND RETRIEVAL SYSTEM, WITHOUT PERMISSION IN WRITING FROM THE PUBLISHER. ACADEMIC PRESS, INC. Ill Fifth Avenue, New York, New York 10003 United Kingdom Edition published by A C A D E M I C PRESS, INC. (LONDON) LTD. 24/28 Oval Road, London NW1 Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Coulson, Kinsell L Solar and terrestrial radiation. Inclu...

  17. Strategies for monitoring terrestrial animals and habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard Holthausen; Raymond L. Czaplewski; Don DeLorenzo; Greg Hayward; Winifred B. Kessler; Pat Manley; Kevin S. McKelvey; Douglas S. Powell; Leonard F. Ruggiero; Michael K. Schwartz; Bea Van Horne; Christina D. Vojta

    2005-01-01

    This General Technical Report (GTR) addresses monitoring strategies for terrestrial animals and habitats. It focuses on monitoring associated with National Forest Management Act planning and is intended to apply primarily to monitoring efforts that are broader than individual National Forests. Primary topics covered in the GTR are monitoring requirements; ongoing...

  18. South African red data book - Terrestrial mammals

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Smithers, RHN

    1986-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently, 243 species of terrestrial wild mammals are known to occur in the Republic of South Africa. Using the well established IUCN definitions, 42 of these may be considered as exposed to some level of threat of extinction. Three species...

  19. Furostanol and Spirostanol Saponins from Tribulus terrestris.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhen-Fang; Wang, Bing-Bing; Zhao, Yang; Wang, Fang-Xu; Sun, Yan; Guo, Rui-Jie; Song, Xin-Bo; Xin, Hai-Li; Sun, Xin-Guang

    2016-03-30

    Twelve new steroidal saponins, including eleven furostanol saponins, terrestrinin J-T (1-11), and one spirostanol saponin, terrestrinin U (12), together with seven known steroidal saponins 13-19 were isolated from T. terrestris. The structures of the new compounds were established on the basis of spectroscopic data, including 1D and 2D NMR and HRESIMS, and comparisons with published data.

  20. Terrestrial water fluxes dominated by transpiration: Comment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel R. Schlaepfer; Brent E. Ewers; Bryan N. Shuman; David G. Williams; John M. Frank; William J. Massman; William K. Lauenroth

    2014-01-01

    The fraction of evapotranspiration (ET) attributed to plant transpiration (T) is an important source of uncertainty in terrestrial water fluxes and land surface modeling (Lawrence et al. 2007, Miralles et al. 2011). Jasechko et al. (2013) used stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios from 73 large lakes to investigate the relative roles of evaporation (E) and T in ET...

  1. Ethnopharmacological Studies of Tribulus Terrestris (Linn). in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Synergism and antagonism impact of different plant metabolites present in crude fruit extract of Tribulus terrestris 'the herbal Viagra' have been studied. Variability in plant composition, biomass and metabolites concentration in different modules was significantly contributed by spatial factor. However the edhaphic ...

  2. Nuclear war and other catastrophes. Civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945; Atomkrieg und andere Katastrophen. Zivil- und Katastrophenschutz in der Bundesrepublik und Grossbritannien nach 1945

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diebel, Martin [Zentrum fuer Zeithistorische Forschung, Potsdam (Germany)

    2017-07-01

    The book civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945 discusses the following issues: aerial defense and the atomic bomb (1945 - 1968), crises and catastrophes in the shadow of the bomb (1962 - 1978), civil defense and the comeback of the (nuclear) war (1976 - 1979), civil defense and the second ''Cold War'' (1979 - 1986), Chernobyl and the end of the Cold War (1979 - 1990), war, catastrophe and safety in the 20th century - a conclusion.

  3. Multidimensional poverty and catastrophic health spending in the mountainous regions of Myanmar, Nepal and India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohanty, Sanjay K; Agrawal, Nand Kishor; Mahapatra, Bidhubhusan; Choudhury, Dhrupad; Tuladhar, Sabarnee; Holmgren, E Valdemar

    2017-01-18

    Economic burden to households due to out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) is large in many Asian countries. Though studies suggest increasing household poverty due to high OOPE in developing countries, studies on association of multidimensional poverty and household health spending is limited. This paper tests the hypothesis that the multidimensionally poor are more likely to incur catastrophic health spending cutting across countries. Data from the Poverty and Vulnerability Assessment (PVA) Survey carried out by the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has been used in the analyses. The PVA survey was a comprehensive household survey that covered the mountainous regions of India, Nepal and Myanmar. A total of 2647 households from India, 2310 households in Nepal and 4290 households in Myanmar covered under the PVA survey. Poverty is measured in a multidimensional framework by including the dimensions of education, income and energy, water and sanitation using the Alkire and Foster method. Health shock is measured using the frequency of illness, family sickness and death of any family member in a reference period of one year. Catastrophic health expenditure is defined as 40% above the household's capacity to pay. Results suggest that about three-fifths of the population in Myanmar, two-fifths of the population in Nepal and one-third of the population in India are multidimensionally poor. About 47% of the multidimensionally poor in India had incurred catastrophic health spending compared to 35% of the multidimensionally non-poor and the pattern was similar in both Nepal and Myanmar. The odds of incurring catastrophic health spending was 56% more among the multidimensionally poor than among the multidimensionally non-poor [95% CI: 1.35-1.76]. While health shocks to households are consistently significant predictors of catastrophic health spending cutting across country of residence, the educational attainment of the head of the household is

  4. Catastrophe Optics Method to Determine the Micro-Nano Size Profiles at TPL of Liquid Films on a Solid Surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, David F.; McQuillen, J. B.; Sankovic, J. M.; Zhang, Nengli

    2009-01-01

    As discovered by recent studies, what directly affects the wetting and spreading is curvature in micro-region rather than the macroscopic contact angle. Measuring the profile of the micro-region becomes an important research topic. Recently, catastrophe optics has been applied to this kind of measurements. Optical catastrophe occurring in far field of waves of liquid-refracted laser beam implies a wealth of information about the liquid spreading not only for liquid drops but also for films. When a parallel laser beam passes through a liquid film on a slide glass at three-phase-line (TPL), very interesting optical image patterns occur on a screen far from the film. An analysis based on catastrophe optics discloses and interprets the formation of these optical image patterns. The analysis reveals that the caustic line manifested as the bright-thick line on the screen implies the lowest hierarchy of optical catastrophes, called fold caustic. This optical catastrophe is produced by the inflexion line on liquid surface at the liquid foot, which is formed not only in the spreading of drops but also in spreading of films. The generalized catastrophe optics method enables to identify the edge profiles and determine the edge foot height of liquid films. Keywords: Crossover region, Inflexion line, liquid edge foot, Catastrophe optics, Caustic and diffraction

  5. Louisiana ESI: T_MAMMAL (Terrestrial Mammal Polygons)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains sensitive biological resource data for terrestrial mammals in Louisiana. Vector polygons in this data set represent terrestrial mammal...

  6. Remembering pain after surgery: a longitudinal examination of the role of pain catastrophizing in children's and parents' recall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noel, Melanie; Rabbitts, Jennifer A; Tai, Gabrielle G; Palermo, Tonya M

    2015-05-01

    Children's memories for pain play a powerful role in their pain experiences. Parents' memories may also influence children's pain experiences, by influencing parent-child interactions about pain and children's cognitions and behaviors. Pain catastrophizing of children and parents has been implicated as a factor underlying memory biases; however, this has not been empirically examined. The current longitudinal study is the first to examine the role of pain catastrophizing of children and parents in the development of their pain memories after surgery. Participants were 49 youth (32 girls) aged 10 to 18 years undergoing major surgery and their parents. One week before surgery, children and parents completed measures of pain catastrophizing. Two weeks after surgery (the acute recovery period), children and parents completed measures of child pain intensity and affect. Two to 4 months after surgery, children's and parents' memories of child pain intensity and affect were elicited. Hierarchical linear regression models revealed that over and above covariates, parent catastrophizing about their child's pain (magnification, rumination) accounted for a significant portion of variance in children's affective and parents' sensory pain memories. Although parent catastrophizing had a direct effect on pain memories, mediation analyses revealed that child catastrophizing (helplessness) indirectly influenced children's and parents' pain memories through the child's postoperative pain experience. Findings highlight that aspects of catastrophic thinking about child pain before surgery are linked to distressing pain memories several months later. Although both child and parent catastrophizing influence pain memory development, parent catastrophizing is most influential to both children's and parents' evolving cognitions about child pain.

  7. Terrestrial forest management plan for Palmyra Atoll

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hathaway, Stacie A.; McEachern, Kathryn; Fisher, Robert N.

    2011-01-01

    This 'Terrestrial Forest Management Plan for Palmyra Atoll' was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for The Nature Conservancy (TNC) Palmyra Program to refine and expand goals and objectives developed through the Conservation Action Plan process. It is one in a series of adaptive management plans designed to achieve TNC's mission toward the protection and enhancement of native wildlife and habitat. The 'Terrestrial Forest Management Plan for Palmyra Atoll' focuses on ecosystem integrity and specifically identifies and addresses issues related to assessing the status and distribution of resources, as well as the pressures acting upon them, most specifically nonnative and potentially invasive species. The plan, which presents strategies for increasing ecosystem integrity, provides a framework to implement and track the progress of conservation and restoration goals related to terrestrial resources on Palmyra Atoll. The report in its present form is intended to be an overview of what is known about historical and current forest resources; it is not an exhaustive review of all available literature relevant to forest management but an attempt to assemble as much information specific to Palmyra Atoll as possible. Palmyra Atoll is one of the Northern Line Islands in the Pacific Ocean southwest of the Hawai`ian Islands. It consists of many heavily vegetated islets arranged in a horseshoe pattern around four lagoons and surrounded by a coral reef. The terrestrial ecosystem consists of three primary native vegetation types: Pisonia grandis forest, coastal strand forest, and grassland. Among these vegetation types, the health and extent of Pisonia grandis forest is of particular concern. Overall, the three vegetation types support 25 native plant species (two of which may be extirpated), 14 species of sea birds, six shore birds, at least one native reptile, at least seven native insects, and six native land crabs. Green and hawksbill turtles forage at Palmyra Atoll

  8. Overview of catastrophic failures of freewheeling diodes in power electronic circuits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai

    2013-01-01

    Emerging applications (e.g. electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, more electric aircrafts, etc.) have brought more stringent reliability constrains into power electronic products because of safety requirements and maintenance cost issues. To improve the reliability of power electronics......, better understanding of failure modes and failure mechanisms of reliability–critical components in power electronic circuits are needed. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT failures, while the study on the failures of freewheeling diodes is less impressive. It is of importance...... to investigate the catastrophic failures of freewheeling diodes as they could induce the malfunction of other components and eventually the whole power electronic circuits. This paper presents an overview of those catastrophic failures and gives examples of the corresponding consequences to the circuits....

  9. Repenser le risque et les catastrophes dans les régions de montagne

    OpenAIRE

    Hewitt, Kenneth; Mehta, Manjari

    2012-01-01

    Cet article aborde la question des risques et des catastrophes en montagne. Il vise non pas à dissocier mais plutôt à replacer ces concepts au cœur des questions de sécurité publique et de développement des États contemporains. Cette approche des catastrophes se distingue des précédentes, pourtant considérablement renforcées par les stéréotypes habituels, propres à l’environnement montagnard. De fait, celles-ci étaient jusqu’alors centrées sur l’aléa naturel, sur son caractère extrême et impr...

  10. Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2016-01-08

    Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal's second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  11. Hydrogen atom in a magnetic field: Ghost orbits, catastrophes, and uniform semiclassical approximations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Main, J.; Wunner, G.

    1997-01-01

    Applying closed-orbit theory to the recurrence spectra of the hydrogen atom in a magnetic field, one can interpret most, but not all, structures semiclassically in terms of closed classical orbits. In particular, conventional closed-orbit theory fails near bifurcations of orbits where semiclassical amplitudes exhibit unphysical divergences. Here we analyze the role of ghost orbits living in complex phase space. The ghosts can explain resonance structures in the spectra of the hydrogen atom in a magnetic field at positions where no real orbits exist. For three different types of catastrophes, viz. fold, cusp, and butterfly catastrophes, we construct uniform semiclassical approximations and demonstrate that these solutions are completely determined by classical parameters of the real orbits and complex ghosts. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  12. Balancing burn-in and mission times in environments with catastrophic and repairable failures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bebbington, Mark; Lai, C.-D.; Zitikis, Ricardas

    2009-01-01

    In a system subject to both repairable and catastrophic (i.e., nonrepairable) failures, 'mission success' can be defined as operating for a specified time without a catastrophic failure. We examine the effect of a burn-in process of duration τ on the mission time x, and also on the probability of mission success, by introducing several functions and surfaces on the (τ,x)-plane whose extrema represent suitable choices for the best burn-in time, and the best burn-in time for a desired mission time. The corresponding curvature functions and surfaces provide information about probabilities and expectations related to these burn-in and mission times. Theoretical considerations are illustrated with both parametric and, separating the failures by failure mode, nonparametric analyses of a data set, and graphical visualization of results.

  13. Ensemble learning in fixed expansion layer networks for mitigating catastrophic forgetting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coop, Robert; Mishtal, Aaron; Arel, Itamar

    2013-10-01

    Catastrophic forgetting is a well-studied attribute of most parameterized supervised learning systems. A variation of this phenomenon, in the context of feedforward neural networks, arises when nonstationary inputs lead to loss of previously learned mappings. The majority of the schemes proposed in the literature for mitigating catastrophic forgetting were not data driven and did not scale well. We introduce the fixed expansion layer (FEL) feedforward neural network, which embeds a sparsely encoding hidden layer to help mitigate forgetting of prior learned representations. In addition, we investigate a novel framework for training ensembles of FEL networks, based on exploiting an information-theoretic measure of diversity between FEL learners, to further control undesired plasticity. The proposed methodology is demonstrated on a basic classification task, clearly emphasizing its advantages over existing techniques. The architecture proposed can be enhanced to address a range of computational intelligence tasks, such as regression problems and system control.

  14. Polar catastrophe at the MgO(100)/SnO2(110) interface

    KAUST Repository

    Albar, Arwa

    2016-11-14

    First principles calculations, based on density functional theory, are used to investigate the structural and electronic properties of the epitaxial MgO(100)/SnO2(110) interface of wide band gap insulators. Depending on the interface termination, nonmagnetic metallic and half-metallic interface states are observed. The formation of these states is explained by a polar catastrophe model for nonpolar-polar interfaces. Strong lattice distortions and buckling develop in SnO2, which influence the interface properties as the charge discontinuity is partially screened. Already a single unit cell of SnO2 is sufficient to drive the polar catastrophe scenario. © 2016 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

  15. Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal’s second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away.

  16. INVESTIGATING FINANCIAL INNOVATION AND EUROPEAN CAPITAL MARKETS. THE CASE OF CATASTROPHE BONDS AND LISTED REINSURANCE COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CONSTANTIN LAURA-GABRIELA

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Focusing on the financial innovation – stock market interconnections, the present research studies the association between the insurance-linked market activity of European (reinsurance companies and their evolution on the capital markets. With the aim of emphasizing the connections from the perspective of the stock performance and their risk, the empirical analysis is based on vector autoregression (VAR and Granger causality analyses. The proposed examination is further developed by considering both impulse response functions and variance decomposition insights. The proxies of the catastrophe bond market, as financial innovation, there are employed both the size and the number of catastrophe bonds transactions, while the stock returns and their standard deviation stand for representatives of the evolution of the reinsurance companies on the capital markets in terms of financial performance and risk. The main results confirm other studies, suggesting that the effects of issuing cat bonds on the ceding companies is reflected rather in terms of stocks’ risk diminishing

  17. INVESTIGATING FINANCIAL INNOVATION AND EUROPEAN CAPITAL MARKETS. THE CASE OF CATASTROPHE BONDS AND LISTED REINSURANCE COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CONSTANTIN LAURA-GABRIELA

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Focusing on the financial innovation – stock market interconnections, the present research studies the association between the insurance-linked market activity of European (reinsurance companies and their evolution on the capital markets. With the aim of emphasizing the connections from the perspective of the stock performance and their risk, the empirical analysis is based on vector autoregression (VAR and Granger causality analyses. The proposed examination is further developed by considering both impulse response functions and variance decomposition insights. The proxies of the catastrophe bond market, as financial innovation, there are employed both the size and the number of catastrophe bonds transactions, while the stock returns and their standard deviation stand for representatives of the evolution of the reinsurance companies on the capital markets in terms of financial performance and risk. The main results confirm other studies, suggesting that the effects of issuing cat bonds on the ceding companies is reflected rather in terms of stocks’ risk diminishing.

  18. Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loganathan, Tharani; Lee, Way-Seah; Lee, Kok-Foo; Jit, Mark; Ng, Chiu-Wan

    2015-01-01

    While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking. We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia. A two-year prospective, hospital-based study was conducted from 2008 to 2010 in an urban (Kuala Lumpur) and rural (Kuala Terengganu) setting in Malaysia. All children under the age of 5 years admitted for acute gastroenteritis were included. Patients were screened for rotavirus and information on healthcare expenditure was obtained. Of the 658 stool samples collected at both centers, 248 (38%) were positive for rotavirus. Direct and indirect costs incurred were significantly higher in Kuala Lumpur compared with Kuala Terengganu (US$222 Vs. US$45; pMalaysia.

  19. New Mechanism for Explaing LENR and Certain forms of Technological and Natural Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gareev, Fangil

    2008-03-01

    We proposed a new mechanism for low energy nuclear reactions (LENR): cooperative resonance processes involving the whole the system - nuclei + atoms + condensed matter can occur at a smaller threshold energies than the corresponding ones on free constituents. The cooperative processes can be induced and enhanced by low energy external fields. The excess heat is the emission of internal energy and transmutations at LENR are the result of a redistribution of internal energy of the whole system. The lack of financial support and ignorance by mainstream physicists has resulted in the LENR field not being accepted. We postulate that LENR can lead to catastrophes, potentially including, the runaway evcnt involving the reactor at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, the explosion of the twin towers during the 11 September 2001 World Trade Center collapse, in New York, the explosion of transformers in Moscow, catastrophes of submarines, and other phenomena associated with a cooperative resonance synchronization mechanism.

  20. Quantitative Evaluation of Heavy Duty Machine Tools Remanufacturing Based on Modified Catastrophe Progression Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    shunhe, Li; jianhua, Rao; lin, Gui; weimin, Zhang; degang, Liu

    2017-11-01

    The result of remanufacturing evaluation is the basis for judging whether the heavy duty machine tool can remanufacture in the EOL stage of the machine tool lifecycle management.The objectivity and accuracy of evaluation is the key to the evaluation method.In this paper, the catastrophe progression method is introduced into the quantitative evaluation of heavy duty machine tools’ remanufacturing,and the results are modified by the comprehensive adjustment method,which makes the evaluation results accord with the standard of human conventional thinking.Using the catastrophe progression method to establish the heavy duty machine tools’ quantitative evaluation model,to evaluate the retired TK6916 type CNC floor milling-boring machine’s remanufacturing.The evaluation process is simple,high quantification,the result is objective.

  1. Evaluating core technology capacity based on an improved catastrophe progression method: the case of automotive industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shijia; Liu, Zongwei; Wang, Yue; Zhao, Fuquan

    2017-01-01

    Subjectivity usually causes large fluctuations in evaluation results. Many scholars attempt to establish new mathematical methods to make evaluation results consistent with actual objective situations. An improved catastrophe progression method (ICPM) is constructed to overcome the defects of the original method. The improved method combines the merits of the principal component analysis' information coherence and the catastrophe progression method's none index weight and has the advantage of highly objective comprehensive evaluation. Through the systematic analysis of the influencing factors of the automotive industry's core technology capacity, the comprehensive evaluation model is established according to the different roles that different indices play in evaluating the overall goal with a hierarchical structure. Moreover, ICPM is developed for evaluating the automotive industry's core technology capacity for the typical seven countries in the world, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the method.

  2. Catastrophic loss risks: An economic and legal analysis, and a model state statute

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, M.B.

    1984-01-01

    Catastrophic loss risk producing facilities or activities are defined as those human enterprises which are theoretically capable of producing some credible event which entails extremely large losses of human life, health, or property. Two examples of catastrophic loss risk producing facilities are examined, commercial nuclear power plants and LNG terminals. These two types of facilities appear to produce a type of externality in that they impose uncompensated loss risk costs on neighbors. Further, these two types of facilities may be quite dependent upon the subsidies implicit in these externalities for their continued economic operation. A model state statute is proposed which would use insurance premiums as an unbiased source of probability and outcome estimates in order to eliminate this externality and the resulting subsidy, and as a way of improving the present situation within certain economic limits

  3. The resilient banality of catastrophes: about After Fukushima by Jean-Luc Nancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tonaki, Yotetsu

    2016-01-01

    The author proposes some thoughts based on a book (The equivalence of catastrophes - After Fukushima) written by the French philosopher Jean-Luc Nancy for whom Fukushima cannot be reduced to technological dysfunctions, nor to a factor attributable to men in charge, but reveals a system of general equivalence which supports a whole civilisation. The author refers to the speech on safety engineering and on resilience in Japan, and outlines some surprising correspondences with Nancy's writings. With a reference to Heidegger, the author shows that what the catastrophe reveals is not only daunting or abnormal phenomena, but also and above all an almost ontological condition which command the normal operation of every day life. Based on Anders' works, he examines what is on in this techno-sphere which is finally similar to a 'self-transformation of the human being'

  4. MODIS-derived terrestrial primary production [chapter 28

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maosheng Zhao; Steven Running; Faith Ann Heinsch; Ramakrishna Nemani

    2011-01-01

    Temporal and spatial changes in terrestrial biological productivity have a large impact on humankind because terrestrial ecosystems not only create environments suitable for human habitation, but also provide materials essential for survival, such as food, fiber and fuel. A recent study estimated that consumption of terrestrial net primary production (NPP; a list of...

  5. Nuclear power station with nuclear reactor accommodated largely secure against catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosen, O.

    1987-01-01

    If the nuclear reactor is installed underground near the power station unit, then danger to the environment due to radiation contamination can be largely or nearly completely prevented by a covering of constant thickness or by a covering which can be installed by a catastrophic accident. The extinguishing of a burning reactor is also relatively simple for a reactor accommodated in a pit. The above-mentioned measures can be used individually or combined. (orig./HP) [de

  6. Pain Sensitivity and Pain Catastrophizing are Associated with Persistent Pain and Disability after Lumbar Spine Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coronado, Rogelio A.; George, Steven Z.; Devin, Clinton J.; Wegener, Stephen T.; Archer, Kristin R.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To examine whether pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing are associated with persistent pain and disability after lumbar spine surgery. Design Prospective observational cohort study. Setting Academic medical center. Participants Patients (N = 68, mean ± SD age = 57.9 ± 13.1 years, N female = 40 (58.8%)) undergoing spine surgery for a degenerative condition from March 1, 2012 to April 30, 2013 were assessed 6 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months after surgery. Interventions Not applicable. Main Outcome Measure(s) The main outcome measures were persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, and disability. Patients with persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, or disability were identified as those patients reporting Brief Pain Inventory scores ≥ 4 and Oswestry Disability Index scores ≥ 21 at all postoperative time points. Results From 6 weeks to 6 months after surgery, approximately 12.9%, 24.2%, and 46.8% of patients reported persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, or disability, respectively. Increased pain sensitivity at 6 weeks was associated with having persistent back pain intensity (OR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.0; 4.1) after surgery. Increased pain catastrophizing at 6 weeks was associated with having persistent back pain intensity (OR = 1.1, 95% CI = 1.0; 1.2), pain interference (OR = 1.1, 95% CI = 1.0; 1.2), and disability (OR = 1.3, 95% CI = 1.1; 1.4). An interaction effect was not found between pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing on persistent outcomes (p > 0.05). Conclusion(s) Findings suggest the importance of early postoperative screening for pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing in order to identify patients at-risk for poor postoperative pain intensity, interference, and/or disability outcomes. Future research should consider the benefit of targeted therapeutic strategies for patients with these postoperative prognostic factors. PMID:26101845

  7. Modeling the Cloud to Enhance Capabilities for Crises and Catastrophe Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-16

    through support by a prior DOD grant, and in this project, we focused on how to effectively adapt this for the cloud catastrophe environment. The...the effects of varying cloud resources and the cloud architecture on L, o, and g values, we will be able to formulate realistic analytical models of...variation in computing and communication costs of test problems due to varying loads in the cloud environment. We used the parallel matrix multiplication

  8. Quasi-Static Evolution, Catastrophe, and Failed Eruption of Solar Flux Ropes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-30

    Ropes James Chen Beam Physics Branch Plasma Physics Division December 30, 2016 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. i REPORT...pressure gradient force combine to balance the major radial hoop force. The macroscopic forces on the flux ropes and onset conditions are quantified...Solar physics theory 67-4989-07 Quasi-Static Evolution, Catastrophe, and “Failed” Eruption of Solar Flux Ropes James Chen1 Plasma Physics Division

  9. Catastrophic Incident Recovery: Long-Term Recovery from an Anthrax Event Symposium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesperance, Ann M.

    2008-06-30

    On March 19, 2008, policy makers, emergency managers, and medical and Public Health officials convened in Seattle, Washington, for a workshop on Catastrophic Incident Recovery: Long-Term Recovery from an Anthrax Event. The day-long symposium was aimed at generating a dialogue about restoration and recovery through a discussion of the associated challenges that impact entire communities, including people, infrastructure, and critical systems.

  10. Homeland Security is Hometown Security: Comparison and Case Studies of Vertically Synchronized Catastrophe Response Plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Hurricanes Andrew, Hugo , and Katrina resonate as failures where there was little, if any, federal response in the initial hours, which left the depleted...was also initiated by several large scale incidents, including the Three Mile Island Disaster and Hurricanes Hugo and Andrew.67 This evolved at the...persist during large scale disasters, as was demonstrated during Hurricane Katrina and Super Storm Sandy. Catastrophe response planning at the

  11. 'The star called Wormwood': the cause and effect of the Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knorre, H.

    1992-01-01

    The explosion of the Chernobyl nuclear power station in 1986 astounded the world. It was shocking not just because of the technical failure - unfortunately such things happen from time to time - but as a social and political failure. The Chernobyl catastrophe undermined and exposed the false, vicious and inhumane Soviet totalitarian system. The Chernobyl explosion initiated the disintegration of the corrupt Communist regime - a regime which had been deemed unshakeable in the USSR. (author)

  12. Realizing stock market crashes: stochastic cusp catastrophe model of returns under time-varying volatility

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Kukačka, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 6 (2015), s. 959-973 ISSN 1469-7688 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965; GA ČR GA13-32263S EU Projects: European Commission 612955 - FINMAP Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe model * Realized volatility * Bifurcations * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.794, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/barunik-0434202.pdf

  13. Factors Contributing to the Catastrophe in Mexico City During the Earthquake of September 19, 1985

    OpenAIRE

    Beck, James L.; Hall, John F.

    1986-01-01

    The extensive damage to high‐rise buildings in Mexico City during the September 19, 1985 earthquake is primarily due to the intensity of the ground shaking exceeding what was previously considered credible for the city by Mexican engineers. There were two major factors contributing to the catastrophe, resonance in the sediments of an ancient lake that once existed in the Valley of Mexico, and the long duration of shaking compared with other coastal earthquakes in the last 50 years. Both of th...

  14. The Detained-Disappeared: Civilizational Catastrophe, the Collapse of Identity and Language*

    OpenAIRE

    Gatti, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    This article proposes the concept of catastrophe as a starting point for the construction of appropriate representation strategies for phenomena of extreme social violence, exploring the case of the forced disappearance of individuals in Argentina and Uruguay. The analysis begins with a paradox: this process represents the culmination of policies for the construction and management of the population in post-colonial America, and is simultaneously applicable to the most completely formed produ...

  15. Simulation of the catastrophic floods caused by extreme rainfall events - Uh River basin case study

    OpenAIRE

    Pekárová, Pavla; Halmová, Dana; Mitková, Veronika

    2005-01-01

    The extreme rainfall events in Central and East Europe on August 2002 rise the question, how other basins would respond on such rainfall situations. Such theorisation helps us to arrange in advance the necessary activity in the basin to reduce the consequence of the assumed disaster. The aim of the study is to recognise a reaction of the Uh River basin (Slovakia, Ukraine) to the simulated catastrophic rainfall events from August 2002. Two precipitation scenarios, sc1 and sc2, were created. Th...

  16. Well below 2 °C: Mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yangyang; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran

    2017-09-01

    The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2 °C.” Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high-impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (˜50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend.

  17. 1.5 °C ? - Solutions for avoiding catastrophic climate change in this century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to "well below 2 °C." Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (˜50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend. In addition to present the analysis above, I will also share (1) perspective on developed and developing world actions and interactions on climate solutions; (2) Prof V. Ramanathan's interactions with the Pontifical Academy of Sciences and other religious groups which are highly valuable to the interdisciplinary audience.

  18. Classical and quantum fold catastrophe in the presence of axial symmetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhont, G.; Zhilinskií, B. I.

    2008-11-01

    We introduce a family of Hamiltonians with two degrees of freedom, axial symmetry and complete integrability. The potential function depends on coordinates and one control parameter. A fold catastrophe typically occurs in such a family of potentials and its consequences on the global dynamics are investigated through the energy-momentum map which defines the singular fibration of the four-dimensional phase space. The two inequivalent local canonical forms of the catastrophe are presented: the first case corresponds to the appearance of a second sheet in the image of the energy-momentum map while the second case is associated with the breaking of an already existing second sheet. A special effort is placed on the description of the singularities. In particular, the existence of cuspidal tori is related to a second-order contact point between the energy level set and the reduced phase space. The quantum mechanical aspects of the changes induced by the fold catastrophe are investigated with the quantum eigenstates computed for an octic potential and are interpreted through the quantum-classical correspondence. We note that the singularity exposed in this paper is not an obstruction to a global definition of action-angle variables.

  19. Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, S D; Johnson, C R; Frusher, S D; Ridgway, K R

    2009-12-29

    A key consideration in assessing impacts of climate change is the possibility of synergistic effects with other human-induced stressors. In the ocean realm, climate change and overfishing pose two of the greatest challenges to the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In eastern Tasmania, temperate coastal waters are warming at approximately four times the global ocean warming average, representing the fastest rate of warming in the Southern Hemisphere. This has driven range extension of the ecologically important long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii), which has now commenced catastrophic overgrazing of productive Tasmanian kelp beds leading to loss of biodiversity and important rocky reef ecosystem services. Coincident with the overgrazing is heavy fishing of reef-based predators including the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii. By conducting experiments inside and outside Marine Protected Areas we show that fishing, by removing large predatory lobsters, has reduced the resilience of kelp beds against the climate-driven threat of the sea urchin and thus increased risk of catastrophic shift to widespread sea urchin barrens. This shows that interactions between multiple human-induced stressors can exacerbate nonlinear responses of ecosystems to climate change and limit the adaptive capacity of these systems. Management actions focused on reducing the risk of catastrophic phase shift in ecosystems are particularly urgent in the face of ongoing warming and unprecedented levels of predator removal from the world's oceans.

  20. Severe abdominal pain as a presenting symptom of probable catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haskin, Orly; Amir, Jacob; Schwarz, Michael; Schonfeld, Tommy; Nahum, Elhanan; Ling, Galina; Prais, Dario; Harel, Liora

    2012-07-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) in pediatric medicine is rare. We report 3 adolescents who presented with acute onset of severe abdominal pain as the first manifestation of probable catastrophic APS. The 3 patients, 2 male patients and 1 female patient were 14 to 18 years old. One had been diagnosed with systemic lupus erythematosus in the past, but the other 2 had no previous relevant medical history. All presented with excruciating abdominal pain without additional symptoms. Physical examination was noncontributory. Laboratory results were remarkable for high inflammatory markers. Abdominal ultrasonography was normal, and abdominal computed tomography scan showed nonspecific findings of liver infiltration. Only computed tomography angiography revealed evidence of extensive multiorgan thrombosis. All patients had elevated titers of antiphospholipid antibodies. The patients were treated with full heparinization, high-dose steroids, and intravenous immunoglobulin with a resolution of symptoms. One patient was resistant to the treatment and was treated with rituximab. In conclusion, severe acute abdominal pain can be the first manifestation of a thromboembolic event owing to catastrophic APS even in previously healthy adolescents. Diagnosis requires a high index of suspicion with prompt evaluation and treatment to prevent severe morbidity and mortality.

  1. Assessing catastrophic and impoverishing effects of health care payments in Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwesiga, Brendan; Zikusooka, Charlotte M; Ataguba, John E

    2015-01-22

    Direct out-of-pocket payments for health care are recognised as limiting access to health care services and also endangering the welfare of households. In Uganda, such payments comprise a large portion of total health financing. This study assesses the catastrophic and impoverishing impact of paying for health care out-of-pocket in Uganda. Using data from the Uganda National Household Surveys 2009/10, the catastrophic impact of out-of-pocket health care payments is defined using thresholds that vary with household income. The impoverishing effect of out-of-pocket health care payments is assessed using the Ugandan national poverty line and the World Bank poverty line ($1.25/day). A high level and intensity of both financial catastrophe and impoverishment due to out-of-pocket payments are recorded. Using an initial threshold of 10% of household income, about 23% of Ugandan households face financial ruin. Based on both the $1.25/day and the Ugandan poverty lines, about 4% of the population are further impoverished by such payments. This represents a relative increase in poverty head count of 17.1% and 18.1% respectively. The absence of financial protection in Uganda's health system calls for concerted action. Currently, out-of-pocket payments account for a large share of total health financing and there is no pooled prepayment system available. There is therefore a need to move towards mandatory prepayment. In this way, people could access the needed health services without any associated financial consequence.

  2. Berm design to reduce risks of catastrophic slope failures at solid waste disposal sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Stefano, Matteo; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Clemmer, Ryan; Jahanfar, M Ali

    2016-11-01

    Existing waste disposal sites are being strained by exceeding their volumetric capacities because of exponentially increasing rates of municipal solid waste generation worldwide, especially in densely populated metropolises. Over the past 40 years, six well-documented and analyzed disposal sites experienced catastrophic failure. This research presents a novel analysis and design method for implementation of a series of in-situ earth berms to slow down the movement of waste material flow following a catastrophic failure. This is the first study of its kind that employs a dynamic landslide analysis model, DAN-W, and the Voellmy rheological model to approximate solid waste avalanche flow. A variety of single and multiple berm configuration scenarios were developed and tested to find an optimum configuration of the various earth berm geometries and number of berms to achieve desired energy dissipation and reduction in total waste material runout length. The case study application of the novel mitigation measure shows that by constructing a series of six relatively inexpensive 3 m high earth berms at an optimum distance of 250 m from the slope toe, the total runout length of 1000 m and associated fatalities of the Leuwigajah dumpsite catastrophic failure in Bandung, Indonesia, could have been reduced by half. © The Author(s) 2016.

  3. Terrestrial ecosystems in a changing world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Canadell, J.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, ACT (Australia). Global Carbon Project; Pataki, D.E. [California Univ., Irvine, CA (United States). Dept. of Earth System Science]|[California Univ., Irvine, CA (United States). Dept. of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; Pitelka, L.F. (eds.) [Maryland Univ., Frostburg, MD (United States). Appalachian Lab.

    2007-07-01

    Over 100 authors present 25 contributions on the impacts of global change on terrestrial ecosystems including: * key processes of the earth system such as the CO2 fertilization effect, shifts in disturbances and biome distribution, the saturation of the terrestrial carbon sink, and changes in functional biodiversity, * ecosystem services such the production of wheat, pest control, and carbon storage in croplands, and * sensitive regions in the world threaten by rapid changes in climate and land use such as high latitudes ecosystems, tropical forest in Southeast Asia, and ecosystems dominated by Monsoon climate. The book also explores new research developments on spatial thresholds and nonlinearities, the key role of urban development in global biogeochemical processes, and the integration of natural and social sciences to address complex problems of the human-environment system. (orig.)

  4. Effect factors for terrestrial acidification in Brazil

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crespo Mendes, Natalia; Laurent, Alexis; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    conditions, which is an essential approach considering countries like Brazil, with high biodiversity. Previous studies have assessed the impacts of terrestrial acidification from the estimations of the potential losses of vascular plants species richness as a result of exposure to acidifying substances...... for 13 biomes, with 2409 species addressed for whole world. In this context this work aims to provide spatially-differentiated effect factors (EF) for terrestrial acidification in Brazil and support the development of spatially-differentiated characterization factors for Brazil. In order to maintain...... in Brazil, represented by 33167 species, indicating that this is a comprehensive study. Maps of soil pH in Brazil were extracted at 1-km resolution and pH values were extracted for the depth range of 0-30cm. For each ecoregion, species richness was plotted against soil pH and the exposure-response curves...

  5. Application of Terrestrial Environments in Orion Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbre, Robert E.

    2016-01-01

    This presentation summarizes the Marshall Space Flight Center Natural Environments Terrestrial and Planetary Environments (TPE) Team support to the NASA Orion space vehicle. The TPE utilizes meteorological data to assess the sensitivities of the vehicle due to the terrestrial environment. The Orion vehicle, part of the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle Program, is designed to carry astronauts beyond low-earth orbit and is currently undergoing a series of tests including Exploration Test Flight (EFT) - 1. The presentation describes examples of TPE support for vehicle design and several tests, as well as support for EFT-1 and planning for upcoming Exploration Missions while emphasizing the importance of accounting for the natural environment's impact to the vehicle early in the vehicle's program.

  6. The circumpolar biodiversity monitoring program - Terrestrial plan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Tom; Payne, J.; Doyle, M.

    , northern communities, and scientists to detect, understand and report on long-term change in Arctic terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity. This presentation will outline the key management questions the plan aims to address and the proposed nested, multi-scaled approach linking targeted, research based...... monitoring with survey-based monitoring and remotely sensed data. The CBMP Terrestrial Plan intends to build upon and expand existing monitoring networks, engaging participants across a range of capacity and interests. The presentation will summarize the recommended focal soil ecosystem components...... and attributes to monitor in the plan related to soil invertebrates. Focal Ecosystem Components (FECs) of the soil decomposer system include the soil living invertebrates such as microarthropods, enchytraeids and earthworms and the functions performed by microorganisms such as nitrification, decomposition...

  7. MAFF monitoring of the terrestrial environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sherlock, J.C.

    1993-01-01

    This paper addresses the food surveillance programme of the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF), in particular the Terrestrial Radioactivity Monitoring Programme (TRAMP) and the estimation of dietary intake of radionuclides. To define the surveillance programme the following issues need to be decided upon: 1) the type of food which should be analysed; 2) the nature of the contaminants which should be analysed; and 3) the geographical location from which the food samples should be taken. (author)

  8. A molecular palaeobiological exploration of arthropod terrestrialization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lozano-Fernandez, Jesus; Carton, Robert; Tanner, Alastair R.

    2016-01-01

    to the colonization of land is the most likely scenario.Molecular clock analyses confirmed an origin for the three terrestrial lineages bracketed between the Cambrian and the Silurian. While molecular divergence times for Arachnida are consistent with the fossil record,Myriapoda are inferred to have colonized land......, consistent with morphological arguments for convergence in tracheal systems. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences using rocks and clocks’....

  9. Astrophysical and terrestrial neutrinos in Supernova detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lagage, P.O.

    1985-09-01

    Supernova (SN) explosions are the place of very fundamental phenomena, whose privileged messengers are neutrinos. But such events are very rare. Then, SN detection has to be combined with other purposes. The recent developments of SN detectors have been associated with developments of underground particle physics (proton decay, monopoles ...). But here, I will restrict myself to discuss the possibilities for a supernova detector to be sensitive to other sources of neutrinos, astrophysical or terrestrial

  10. Furostanol and Spirostanol Saponins from Tribulus terrestris

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhen-Fang Wang

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Twelve new steroidal saponins, including eleven furostanol saponins, terrestrinin J–T (1–11, and one spirostanol saponin, terrestrinin U (12, together with seven known steroidal saponins 13–19 were isolated from T. terrestris. The structures of the new compounds were established on the basis of spectroscopic data, including 1D and 2D NMR and HRESIMS, and comparisons with published data.

  11. Sampling Terrestrial Environments for Bacterial Polyketides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Hill

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Bacterial polyketides are highly biologically active molecules that are frequently used as drugs, particularly as antibiotics and anticancer agents, thus the discovery of new polyketides is of major interest. Since the 1980s discovery of polyketides has slowed dramatically due in large part to the repeated rediscovery of known compounds. While recent scientific and technical advances have improved our ability to discover new polyketides, one key area has been under addressed, namely the distribution of polyketide-producing bacteria in the environment. Identifying environments where producing bacteria are abundant and diverse should improve our ability to discover (bioprospect new polyketides. This review summarizes for the bioprospector the state-of-the-field in terrestrial microbial ecology. It provides insight into the scientific and technical challenges limiting the application of microbial ecology discoveries for bioprospecting and summarizes key developments in the field that will enable more effective bioprospecting. The major recent efforts by researchers to sample new environments for polyketide discovery is also reviewed and key emerging environments such as insect associated bacteria, desert soils, disease suppressive soils, and caves are highlighted. Finally strategies for taking and characterizing terrestrial samples to help maximize discovery efforts are proposed and the inclusion of non-actinomycetal bacteria in any terrestrial discovery strategy is recommended.

  12. Terrestrial water fluxes dominated by transpiration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jasechko, Scott; Sharp, Zachary D; Gibson, John J; Birks, S Jean; Yi, Yi; Fawcett, Peter J

    2013-04-18

    Renewable fresh water over continents has input from precipitation and losses to the atmosphere through evaporation and transpiration. Global-scale estimates of transpiration from climate models are poorly constrained owing to large uncertainties in stomatal conductance and the lack of catchment-scale measurements required for model calibration, resulting in a range of predictions spanning 20 to 65 per cent of total terrestrial evapotranspiration (14,000 to 41,000 km(3) per year) (refs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Here we use the distinct isotope effects of transpiration and evaporation to show that transpiration is by far the largest water flux from Earth's continents, representing 80 to 90 per cent of terrestrial evapotranspiration. On the basis of our analysis of a global data set of large lakes and rivers, we conclude that transpiration recycles 62,000 ± 8,000 km(3) of water per year to the atmosphere, using half of all solar energy absorbed by land surfaces in the process. We also calculate CO2 uptake by terrestrial vegetation by connecting transpiration losses to carbon assimilation using water-use efficiency ratios of plants, and show the global gross primary productivity to be 129 ± 32 gigatonnes of carbon per year, which agrees, within the uncertainty, with previous estimates. The dominance of transpiration water fluxes in continental evapotranspiration suggests that, from the point of view of water resource forecasting, climate model development should prioritize improvements in simulations of biological fluxes rather than physical (evaporation) fluxes.

  13. Medical Reserve Corps Volunteers' Ability and Willingness to Report to Work for the Department of Health During Catastrophic Disasters

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Schechter, Shelly

    2007-01-01

    .... According to recent studies of paid healthcare professionals, approximately forty percent may be unable or unwilling to report to work during catastrophic disasters, but these questions have not yet...

  14. GLACIER DEGRADATION AND CATASTROPHIC MUDFLOWS ORIGIN FROM THE MODERN GLACIAL-MORAINE BODIES IN THE ELBRUS REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Zolotarev

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Mechanism of formation of the catastrophic mudflows in different glacial valleys of Elbrus region at the present stage of glacial degradation is described. The important role of the buried ice in the formation of catastrophic mudflows that affected Tyrnyauz in the XX century was revealed as a result of remote monitoring of changes in glacial-moraine complex of Kayarta river. The dynamics of glacial lakes in the Adyl-Su valley in the Bashkara Glacier region was described and probability of their breakthrough was estimated. The quantitative indicators of the dynamics of the landslide in the Kubasanty valley were obtained as a result of remote monitoring, and its influence on the formation of catastrophic mudflows is discovered. Various possible methods of catastrophic mudflows prevention not requiring expensive protective constructions are discussed.

  15. Delayed cell death associated with mitotic catastrophe in γ-irradiated stem-like glioma cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Firat, Elke; Gaedicke, Simone; Tsurumi, Chizuko; Esser, Norbert; Weyerbrock, Astrid; Niedermann, Gabriele

    2011-01-01

    Stem-like tumor cells are regarded as highly resistant to ionizing radiation (IR). Previous studies have focused on apoptosis early after irradiation, and the apoptosis resistance observed has been attributed to reduced DNA damage or enhanced DNA repair compared to non-stem tumor cells. Here, early and late radioresponse of patient-derived stem-like glioma cells (SLGCs) and differentiated cells directly derived from them were examined for cell death mode and the influence of stem cell-specific growth factors. Primary SLGCs were propagated in serum-free medium with the stem-cell mitogens epidermal growth factor (EGF) and fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF-2). Differentiation was induced by serum-containing medium without EGF and FGF. Radiation sensitivity was evaluated by assessing proliferation, clonogenic survival, apoptosis, and mitotic catastrophe. DNA damage-associated γH2AX as well as p53 and p21 expression were determined by Western blots. SLGCs failed to apoptose in the first 4 days after irradiation even at high single doses up to 10 Gy, but we observed substantial cell death later than 4 days postirradiation in 3 of 6 SLGC lines treated with 5 or 10 Gy. This delayed cell death was observed in 3 of the 4 SLGC lines with nonfunctional p53, was associated with mitotic catastrophe and occurred via apoptosis. The early apoptosis resistance of the SLGCs was associated with lower γH2AX compared to differentiated cells, but we found that the stem-cell culture cytokines EGF plus FGF-2 strongly reduce γH2AX levels. Nonetheless, in two p53-deficient SLGC lines examined γIR-induced apoptosis even correlated with EGF/FGF-induced proliferation and mitotic catastrophe. In a line containing CD133-positive and -negative stem-like cells, the CD133-positive cells proliferated faster and underwent more γIR-induced mitotic catastrophe. Our results suggest the importance of delayed apoptosis, associated mitotic catastrophe, and cellular proliferation for γIR-induced death of

  16. The role of catastrophic geomorphic events in central Appalachian landscape evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, R.B.; Miller, A.J.; Smith, J.A.

    1989-01-01

    Catastrophic geomorphic events are taken as those that are large, sudden, and rare on human timescales. In the nonglaciated, low-seismicity central Appalachians, these are dominantly floods and landslides. Evaluation of the role of catastrophic events in landscape evolution includes assessment of their contributions to denudation and formation of prominent landscape features, and how they vary through space and time. Tropical storm paths and topographic barriers at the Blue Ridge and Allegheny Front create significant climatic variability across the Appalachians. For moderate floods, the influence of basin geology is apparent in modifying severity of flooding, but for the most extreme events, flood discharges relate mainly to rainfall characteristics such as intensity, duration, storm size, and location. Landslide susceptibility relates more directly to geologic controls that determine what intensity and duration of rainfall will trigger slope instability. Large floods and landslides are not necessarily effective in producing prominent geomorphic features. Large historic floods in the Piedmont have been minimally effective in producing prominent and persistent geomorphic features. In contrast, smaller floods in the Valley and Ridge produced erosional and depositional features that probably will require thousands of years to efface. Scars and deposits of debris slide-avalanches triggered on sandstone ridges recover slowly and persist much longer than scars and deposits of smaller landslides triggered on finer-grained regolith, even though the smaller landslides may have eroded greater aggregate volume. The surficial stratigraphic record can be used to extend the spatial and temporal limits of our knowledge of catastrophic events. Many prominent alluvial and colluvial landforms in the central Appalachians are composed of sediments that were deposited by processes similar to those observed in historic catastrophic events. Available stratigraphic evidence shows two

  17. Child pain catastrophizing mediates the relationship between parent responses to pain and disability in youth with functional abdominal pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Natoshia Raishevich; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Barnett, Kimberly; Peugh, James; Sil, Soumitri; Goldschneider, Kenneth; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Functional abdominal pain (FAP) in youth is associated with substantial impairment in functioning and prior research has shown that overprotective parent responses can heighten impairment. Little is known about how a range of parental behaviors in response to their child’s pain (overprotection, minimizing and/or encouragement) interact with child coping characteristics (e.g., catastrophizing) to influence functioning in youth with FAP. In this study, it was hypothesized that the relationship between parenting factors and child disability would be mediated by children’s level of maladaptive coping (i.e., pain catastrophizing). Methods Seventy-five patients with FAP presenting to a pediatric pain clinic and their caregivers participated. Youth completed measures of pain intensity (Numeric Rating Scale), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and disability (Functional Disability Inventory). Caregivers completed measures of parent pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and parent responses to child pain behaviors (Adult Responses to Child Symptoms: protection, minimizing, and encouragement/monitoring subscales). Results Increased functional disability was significantly related to higher child pain intensity, increased child and parent pain catastrophizing, and higher levels of encouragement/monitoring and protection. Parent minimization was not related to disability. Child pain catastrophizing fully mediated the relationship between parent encouragement/monitoring and disability and partially mediated the relationship between parent protectiveness and disability. Conclusions The impact of parenting behaviors in response to FAP on child disability is determined in part by the child’s coping style. Findings highlight a more nuanced understanding of the parent-child interaction in determining pain-related disability levels, which should be taken into consideration in assessing and treating youth with FAP. PMID:25121521

  18. Child pain catastrophizing mediates the relation between parent responses to pain and disability in youth with functional abdominal pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Natoshia R; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Barnett, Kimberly; Peugh, James; Sil, Soumitri; Goldschneider, Kenneth; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

    2014-12-01

    Functional abdominal pain (FAP) in youth is associated with substantial impairment in functioning, and prior research has shown that overprotective parent responses can heighten impairment. Little is known about how a range of parental behaviors (overprotection, minimizing, and/or encouragement) in response to their child's pain interact with child coping characteristics (eg, catastrophizing) to influence functioning in youth with FAP. In this study, it was hypothesized that the relation between parenting factors and child disability would be mediated by children's levels of maladaptive coping (ie, pain catastrophizing). Seventy-five patients with FAP presenting to a pediatric pain clinic and their caregivers participated in the study. Youth completed measures of pain intensity (Numeric Rating Scale), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and disability (Functional Disability Inventory). Caregivers completed measures of parent pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and parent responses to child pain behaviors (Adult Responses to Child Symptoms: Protection, Minimizing, and Encouragement/Monitoring subscales). Increased functional disability was significantly related to higher child pain intensity, increased child and parent pain catastrophizing, and higher levels of encouragement/monitoring and protection. Parent minimization was not related to disability. Child pain catastrophizing fully mediated the relation between parent encouragement/monitoring and disability and partially mediated the relation between parent protectiveness and disability. The impact of parenting behaviors in response to FAP on child disability is determined, in part, by the child's coping style. Findings highlight a more nuanced understanding of the parent-child interaction in determining pain-related disability levels, which should be taken into consideration in assessing and treating youth with FAP.

  19. Abstracts of papers of international scientific conference 'Ten Years After the Chernobyl Catastrophe (Scientific Aspects of Problem)'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konoplya, E.F.; Amvros'ev, A.P.; Bogdevich, I.M.; Bondar', Yu.I.; Karaseva, E.I.; Lobanok, L.M.; Matsko, V.P.; Pikulik, M.M.; Rolevich, I.V.; Stozharov, A.N.; Yakushev, B.I.

    1996-02-01

    The collection is dedicated to the 10 anniversary of Chernobyl catastrophe and contains the results of researches carried out in Belarus, as well as in Ukraine and Russian Federation, on different aspects of the Chernobyl problems: radiation medicine and risks, biological radiation effects and their forecasting, agricultural radiology and radioecology, decontamination and radioactive waste management, socio-economic and psychologic problems caused by the Chernobyl Catastrophe. (authors)

  20. Investigation for integration of the German Public Health Service in catastrophe and disaster prevention programs in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfenninger, E.; Koenig, S.; Himmelseher, S.

    2004-01-01

    This research project aimed at investigating the integration of the GPHS into the plans for civil defence and protection as well as catastrophe prevention of the Federal Republic of Germany. Following a comprehensive analysis of the current situation, potential proposals for an improved integrative approach will be presented. In view of the lack of topics relevant for medical care in disaster medicine in educational curricula and training programs for medical students and postgraduate board programs for public health physicians, a working group of the Civil Protection Board of the German Federal Ministry of the Interior already complained in their 'Report on execution of legal rules for protection and rescue of human life as well as restitution of public health after disaster' in 1999, that the integration of the GPHS into catastrophe and disaster prevention programs has insufficiently been solved. On a point-by-point approach, our project analysed the following issues: - Legislative acts for integration of the German Public Health Service into medical care in catastrophes and disasters to protect the civilian population of Germany and their implementation and execution. - Administrative rules and directives on state and district levels that show relationship to integration of the German Public Health Service into preparedness programs for catastrophe prevention and management and their implementation and execution. - Education and postgraduate training options for physicians and non-physician employees of the German Public health Service to prepare for medical care in catastrophes and disasters. - State of knowledge and experience of the German Public Health Service personnel in emergency and disaster medicine. - Evaluation of the German administrative catastrophe prevention authorities with regard to their integration of the German Public Health Service into preparedness programs for catastrophe prevention and management. - Development of a concept to remedy the

  1. The reciprocal relationship between daily fatigue and catastrophizing following cancer treatment: Affect and physical activity as potential mediators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Fabiola; Stephenson, Ellen; DeLongis, Anita; Smink, Ans; Van Ginkel, Robert J; Tuinman, Marrit A; Hagedoorn, Mariët

    2018-03-01

    Fatigue is a distressing symptom many cancer patients experience even after completion of treatment. Although theory and empirical evidence indicate that negative cognitions perpetuate fatigue after completion of treatment, insight into how this process unfolds in daily life is limited. This study used an intensive longitudinal design to investigate the reciprocal relationship between catastrophizing and fatigue in daily life and whether affective and behavioral processes mediate these relationships. Post-treatment colorectal cancer patients (n = 101) completed daily diaries (14 days, 3 times daily) regarding their fatigue, catastrophizing, positive and negative affect, and physical activity. Multilevel modeling was applied to investigate within-person associations within days. Analyses revealed a positive reciprocal relationship between fatigue and catastrophizing throughout the day. That is, high levels of catastrophizing were associated with increases in fatigue within patients. In turn, but to a lesser extent, high levels of fatigue predicted increases in catastrophizing at the next assessment. Low positive affect and high negative affect mediated the effect of catastrophizing on increases in fatigue. Only negative affect mediated the reverse relationship. Physical activity did not mediate either relationship. This study provides evidence for a mutually reinforcing relationship between catastrophizing and fatigue in daily life, which might explain the perpetuation of fatigue after completion of cancer treatment. Fatigue-specific cognitive behavior therapy could be improved by educating patients about this daily reciprocal relationship, train them to quickly replace catastrophizing thoughts in daily life, and help them to cope with affective changes induced by fatigue. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Population catastrophe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ankomah, B

    1990-07-01

    UNFPA estimates predict that Africa's population will be 1.5 billion by 2025. In the next 10 years the growth rate will be 3%, the highest for any region in human history. Nigeria is expected to have 301 million people in 35 years, making it the 3rd largest country behind India and China. Currently the economies of African countries can not provide enough jobs or food for the current population. What is going to happen in 35 years when the population will almost double? In 1950 Africa only made up 9% of the world population, but by 2025 it will be 18.4% of a global population of 8.4 billion. Currently half of Africa's population is under 15. This means that there is still time to affect change. There is time to convince this generation not to behave like their parents. A 2 child limit per family is an absolute limit if any progress is to be made that will actually have an effect. Many have suggested that the young people should go back to the land instead of living in poverty in the city. However, currently the land distribution is 0.4 hectares/rural person. This figure is going to drop to 0.29/rural person. Migration is simply not the solution. Many rural farmers want to have enough children to ensure that their land is inherited and stays in the family. The same goal can be achieved, with less children. According to the UNFPA 77% of married women who do not want to have more children do not use contraceptives. Only 14% of African women use contraceptives, so that by age 20 50% of African women have had 1 birth. The only way to seriously cut down the birth rate is to get the men of Africa involved in contraceptive use.

  3. Root causes investigation of catastrophic optical bulk damage in high-power InGaAs-AlGaAs strained QW lasers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sin, Yongkun; Lingley, Zachary; Ayvazian, Talin; Brodie, Miles; Ives, Neil

    2018-02-01

    High-power single-mode (SM) and multi-mode (MM) InGaAs-AlGaAs strained quantum well (QW) lasers are critical components for both terrestrial and space satellite communications systems. Since these lasers predominantly fail by catastrophic and sudden degradation due to COD, it is especially crucial for space satellite applications to investigate reliability, failure modes, and degradation mechanisms of these lasers. Our group reported a new failure mode in MM and SM InGaAs-AlGaAs strained QW lasers in 2009 and 2016, respectively. Our group also reported in 2017 that bulk failure due to catastrophic optical bulk damage (COBD) is the dominant failure mode of both SM and MM lasers that were subject to long-term life-tests. For the present study, we report root causes investigation of COBD by performing long-term lifetests followed by failure mode analysis (FMA) using various micro-analytical techniques including electron beam induced current (EBIC), time-resolved electroluminescence (EL), focused ion beam (FIB), high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and deep level transient spectroscopy (DLTS). Our life-tests with accumulated test hours of over 25,000 hours for SM lasers and over 35,000 hours for MM lasers generated a number of COBD failures with various failure times. EBIC techniques were employed to study dark line defects (DLDs) generated in SM COBD failures stressed under different test conditions. FIB and high-resolution TEM were employed to prepare cross sectional and plan view TEM specimens to study DLD areas (dislocations) in post-aged SM lasers. Time-resolved EL techniques were employed to study initiation and progressions of dark spots and dark lines in real time as MM lasers were aged. Lastly, to investigate precursor signatures of failure and degradation mechanisms responsible for COBD in both SM and MM lasers, we employed DLTS techniques to study a role that electron traps (non-radiative recombination centers) play in degradation of these

  4. Terrestrial Planet Formation from an Annulus -- Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deienno, Rogerio; Walsh, Kevin J.; Kretke, Katherine A.; Levison, Harold F.

    2018-04-01

    Numerous recent theories of terrestrial planet formation suggest that, in order to reproduce the observed large Earth to Mars mass ratio, planets formed from an annulus of material within 1 au. The success of these models typically rely on a Mars sized embryo being scattered outside 1 au (to ~1.5 au) and starving, while those remaining inside 1 au continue growing, forming Earth and Venus. In some models the scattering is instigated by the migration of giant planets, while in others an embryo-instability naturally occurs due to the dissipation of the gaseous solar nebula. While these models can typically succeed in reproducing the overall mass ratio among the planets, the final angular momentum deficit (AMD) of the present terrestrial planets in our Solar System, and their radial mass concentration (RMC), namely the position where Mars end up in the simulations, are not always well reproduced. Assuming that the gas nebula may not be entirely dissipated when such an embryo-instability happens, here, we study the effects that the time of such an instability can have on the final AMD and RMC. In addition, we also included energy dissipation within embryo-embryo collisions by assuming a given coefficient of restitution for collisions. Our results show that: i) dissipation within embryo-embryo collisions do not play any important role in the final terrestrial planetary system; ii) the final AMD decreases only when the number of final planets formed increases; iii) the RMC tends to always be lower than the present value no matter the number of final planets; and iv) depending on the time that the embryo-instability happen, if too early, with too much gas still present, a second instability will generally happen after the dissipation of the gas nebula.

  5. Halogens in chondritic meteorites and terrestrial accretion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clay, Patricia L.; Burgess, Ray; Busemann, Henner; Ruzié-Hamilton, Lorraine; Joachim, Bastian; Day, James M. D.; Ballentine, Christopher J.

    2017-11-01

    Volatile element delivery and retention played a fundamental part in Earth’s formation and subsequent chemical differentiation. The heavy halogens—chlorine (Cl), bromine (Br) and iodine (I)—are key tracers of accretionary processes owing to their high volatility and incompatibility, but have low abundances in most geological and planetary materials. However, noble gas proxy isotopes produced during neutron irradiation provide a high-sensitivity tool for the determination of heavy halogen abundances. Using such isotopes, here we show that Cl, Br and I abundances in carbonaceous, enstatite, Rumuruti and primitive ordinary chondrites are about 6 times, 9 times and 15-37 times lower, respectively, than previously reported and usually accepted estimates. This is independent of the oxidation state or petrological type of the chondrites. The ratios Br/Cl and I/Cl in all studied chondrites show a limited range, indistinguishable from bulk silicate Earth estimates. Our results demonstrate that the halogen depletion of bulk silicate Earth relative to primitive meteorites is consistent with the depletion of lithophile elements of similar volatility. These results for carbonaceous chondrites reveal that late accretion, constrained to a maximum of 0.5 ± 0.2 per cent of Earth’s silicate mass, cannot solely account for present-day terrestrial halogen inventories. It is estimated that 80-90 per cent of heavy halogens are concentrated in Earth’s surface reservoirs and have not undergone the extreme early loss observed in atmosphere-forming elements. Therefore, in addition to late-stage terrestrial accretion of halogens and mantle degassing, which has removed less than half of Earth’s dissolved mantle gases, the efficient extraction of halogen-rich fluids from the solid Earth during the earliest stages of terrestrial differentiation is also required to explain the presence of these heavy halogens at the surface. The hydropilic nature of halogens, whereby they track

  6. Global analytic treatment of terrestrial photogrammetric networks

    CERN Document Server

    Mayoud, M

    1980-01-01

    In order to solve certain special CERN metrology problems, analytical terrestrial photogrammetry may have some advantages which are first discussed along with their drawbacks and limitations. In this application, it is necessary to carry out a rigorous and global adjustment of the observations and simultaneously process all the perspective ray bundles. The basic principles, the least squares solution and the stochastic analysis of the results are presented. However, for the CERN project, one wonders if the production of digital theodolites is going to reduce the advantages of the photogrammetric method. (12 refs).

  7. Fermi GBM Observations of Terrestrial Gamma Flashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson-Hodge, Colleen A.; Briggs, M. S.; Connaughton, V.; Fishman, G. J.; Bhat, P. N.; Paciesas, W. S.; Preece, R. D.; Kippen, R. M.; vonKienlin, A.; Dwyer, J. R.; hide

    2010-01-01

    In its first two years of operation, the Fermi Gamma Ray Burst Monitor (GBM) has observed 79 Terrestrial Gamma Flashes (TGFs). The thick Bismuth Germanate (BGO) detectors are excellent for TGF spectroscopy, having a high probability of recording the full energy of an incident photon, spanning a broad energy range from 150 keV to 40 MeV, and recording a large number of photons per TGF. Correlations between GBM TGF triggers and lightning sferics detected with the World-Wide Lightning Location Network indicate that TGFs and lightning are simultaneous to within tens of microseconds.

  8. Terrestrial plant methane production and emission

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruhn, Dan; Møller, Ian M.; Mikkelsen, Teis Nørgaard

    2012-01-01

    In this minireview, we evaluate all experimental work published on the phenomenon of aerobic methane (CH4) generation in terrestrial plants and plant. Clearly, despite much uncertainty and skepticism, we conclude that the phenomenon is true. Four stimulating factors have been observed to induce...... aerobic CH4 into a global budget is inadequate. Thus it is too early to draw the line under the aerobic methane emission in plants. Future work is needed for establishing the relative contribution of several proven potential CH4 precursors in plant material....

  9. Digital terrestrial television broadcasting technology and system

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    Now under massive deployment worldwide, digital terrestrial television broadcasting (DTTB) offers one of the most attractive ways to deliver digital TV over the VHF/UHF band. Written by a team of experts for specialists and non-specialists alike, this book serves as a comprehensive guide to DTTB. It covers the fundamentals of channel coding and modulation technologies used in DTTB, as well as receiver technology for synchronization, channel estimation, and equalization. It also covers the recently introduced Chinese DTTB standard, using the SFN network in Hong Kong as an example.

  10. MAFF monitoring of the terrestrial environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sherlock, J.C.

    1991-01-01

    This paper addresses the MAFF food surveillance programme, in particular our Terrestrial Radioactivity Monitoring Programme (TRAMP), and the estimation of dietary intake of radionuclides. The MAFF programme exists primarily to demonstrate that authorized discharges of radioactivity to the environment do not result in individuals receiving doses of radiation in excess of accepted limits. The estimation radionuclide intake ensures over estimation rather than underestimation of dose. Improvements in detection limits and absorption level research could lower the calculated dose to man from radionuclides in food without losing their validity. (author)

  11. Bryophyte in the Beginning of Terrestrial Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özcan ŞİMŞEK

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The beginning of life has been wondered by human beings since ancient ages. The widely accepted opinion is that life began in water and after that landed. In this process, the landing of plants and adapting to terrestrial life of plants are important stages. The last 20 years it’s been done many researches to find out the relationship of bryophytes and tracheophytes. The results of these researches revealed that in evolutionary development process bryophytes and tracheophytes are sister groups. Thesis about earliest land plants are bryophytes is widely accepted recent years. To understand evolutionary process and plants of today’s better, researches about bryophytes must increase.

  12. Grand scheme for solar-terrestrial research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Intriligator, D.S.

    1985-01-01

    The study of solar wind and its interaction with magnetic fields and electrical currents is examined. The effects of magnetic storms caused by solar wind interaction with magnetic fields in the magnetosphere and ionosphere are described. The effect of magnetospheric plasma processes on spacecraft operations and the operation of ground-based systems are explained. The development of an International Solar Terrestrial Physics program, which will be designed to place diagnostic experiments on a collection of spacecraft positioned near space is discussed; the components of the program are described

  13. A New Furostanol Glycoside from Tribulus terrestris

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tonghua Liu

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Besides two known glycosides, a new furostanol glycoside was isolated from the Fruits of Tribulus terrestris L. The structure of the new furostanol glycoside was established as 26-O-β-D-glucopyranosyl-(25S-5α-furostane-20(22-en-12-one-3β, 26-diol-3-O-α-L-rhamnopyranosyl-(1→2-[β-D-glucopyranosyl-(1→4]-β-D-galactopyranoside (1 on the basis of 1D and 2D-NMR techniques, including COSY, HMBC, and HMQC correlations.

  14. Two new furostanol saponins from Tribulus terrestris.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Ya-Juan; Xu, Tun-Hai; Zhou, Hai-Ou; Li, Bo; Xie, Sheng-Xu; Si, Yun-Shan; Liu, Yue; Liu, Tong-Hua; Xu, Dong-Ming

    2010-05-01

    Two new furostanol saponins were isolated from the fruits of Tribulus terrestris L. Their structures were established as 26-O-beta-D-glucopyranosyl-(25S)-5alpha-furost-20(22)-en-3beta,26-diol-3-O-alpha-L-rhamnopyranosyl-(1 --> 2)-[beta-D-glucopyranosyl-(1 --> 4)]-beta-D-galactopyranoside (1) and 26-O-beta-D-glucopyranosyl-(25S)-5alpha-furost-20(22)-en-12-one-3beta,26-diol-3-O-beta-D-galactopyranosyl-(1 --> 2)-beta-D-glucopyranosyl-(1 --> 4)-beta-D-galactopyranoside (2) on the basis of spectroscopic data as well as chemical evidence.

  15. A new furostanol glycoside from Tribulus terrestris.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yajuan; Liu, Yonghong; Xu, Tunhai; Xie, Shengxu; Si, Yunshan; Liu, Yue; Zhou, Haiou; Liu, Tonghua; Xu, Dongming

    2010-01-27

    Besides two known glycosides, a new furostanol glycoside was isolated from the Fruits of Tribulus terrestris L. The structure of the new furostanol glycoside was established as 26-O-beta-D-glucopyranosyl-(25S)-5alpha-furostane-20(22)-en-12-one-3beta, 26-diol-3-O-alpha-L-rhamnopyranosyl-(1-->2)-[beta-D-glucopyranosyl-(1-->4)]-beta-D-galactopyranoside (1) on the basis of 1D and 2D-NMR techniques, including COSY, HMBC, and HMQC correlations.

  16. Handbook of the Solar-Terrestrial Environment

    CERN Document Server

    Kamide, Y

    2007-01-01

    The Handbook of the Solar-Terrestrial Environment is a unique compendium. Recognized international leaders in their field contribute chapters on basic topics of solar physics, space plasmas and the Earth's magnetosphere, and on applied topics like the aurora, magnetospheric storms, space weather, space climatology and planetary science. This book will be of highest value as a reference for researchers working in the area of planetary and space science. However, it is also written in a style accessible to graduate students majoring in those fields.

  17. Catastrophic health expenditure among households with members with special diseases: A case study in Kurdistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moradi, Ghobad; Safari, Hossein; Piroozi, Bakhtiar; Qanbari, Laila; Farshadi, Salahadin; Qasri, Homan; Farhadifar, Fariba

    2017-01-01

    Background: One of the main goals of health systems is to protect people against financial risks associated with diseases that can be catastrophic for patients. In 2014, Health Sector Evolution Plan (HSEP) was implemented in Iran; one of the objectives of HSEP was to reduce out-of-pocket payments and provide more financial protection for people. Therefore, the present study aimed at exploring the likelihood of facing catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) among households with members suffering from dialysis, kidney transplant, or multiple sclerosis (MS) after the implementation of HSEP. Methods: A total number of 385 households were selected using stratified random sampling and were asked to complete the World Health Survey questionnaire through telephone conversations. As outlined by the World Health Organization (WHO), when household out-of-pocket expense for health services is ≥40% of its capacity to pay, then that household is considered to be facing CHE. Furthermore, determinants of CHE were identified using logistic regression. Results: The percentage of facing catastrophic health care expenditures for households with a MS, dialysis, and kidney transplant patient was 20.6%, 18.7%, and 13.8%, respectively. Results of logistic regression analysis revealed that patient's economic status, level of education, supplementary insurance status, type of disease, multiple members with special diseases in the household, rural residence, use of inpatient, dental, and rehabilitation services were effective factors for determining the likelihood of facing CHE. Conclusion: Despite the implementation of HSEP, the percentage of CHE is still high for households that have members who suffer from special diseases. However, basic health insurance packages should be amended and more cost-sharing exemptions should be granted to provide more financial protection for the vulnerable households.

  18. S. pombe kinesins-8 promote both nucleation and catastrophe of microtubules.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muriel Erent

    Full Text Available The kinesins-8 were originally thought to be microtubule depolymerases, but are now emerging as more versatile catalysts of microtubule dynamics. We show here that S. pombe Klp5-436 and Klp6-440 are non-processive plus-end-directed motors whose in vitro velocities on S. pombe microtubules at 7 and 23 nm s(-1 are too slow to keep pace with the growing tips of dynamic interphase microtubules in living S. pombe. In vitro, Klp5 and 6 dimers exhibit a hitherto-undescribed combination of strong enhancement of microtubule nucleation with no effect on growth rate or catastrophe frequency. By contrast in vivo, both Klp5 and Klp6 promote microtubule catastrophe at cell ends whilst Klp6 also increases the number of interphase microtubule arrays (IMAs. Our data support a model in which Klp5/6 bind tightly to free tubulin heterodimers, strongly promoting the nucleation of new microtubules, and then continue to land as a tubulin-motor complex on the tips of growing microtubules, with the motors then dissociating after a few seconds residence on the lattice. In vivo, we predict that only at cell ends, when growing microtubule tips become lodged and their growth slows down, will Klp5/6 motor activity succeed in tracking growing microtubule tips. This mechanism would allow Klp5/6 to detect the arrival of microtubule tips at cells ends and to amplify the intrinsic tendency for microtubules to catastrophise in compression at cell ends. Our evidence identifies Klp5 and 6 as spatial regulators of microtubule dynamics that enhance both microtubule nucleation at the cell centre and microtubule catastrophe at the cell ends.

  19. Thermal thresholds and catastrophizing in individuals with chronic pain after whiplash injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raak, Ragnhild; Wallin, Mia

    2006-10-01

    Thermal sensitivity, thermal pain thresholds, and catastrophizing were examined in individuals with whiplash associated disorders (WAD) and in healthy pain-free participants. Quantitative sensory testing (QST) was used to measure skin sensitivity to cold and warmth and cold and heat pain thresholds over both the thenar eminence and the trapezius muscle (TrM) in 17 participants with WAD (age 50.8 +/- 11.3 years) and 18 healthy participants (age 44.8 +/- 10.2 years). The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) was used to determine pain coping strategies, and visual analogue scales were used for self-assessment of current background pain in individuals in the WAD group as well as experienced pain intensity and unpleasantness after QST and sleep quality in all participants. There were significant differences in warmth threshold and cold and heat pain thresholds of the TrM site between the WAD and pain-free groups. Significant differences between the two groups were also found for the catastrophizing dimension of helplessness in the PCS and in self-assessed quality of sleep. A correlational analysis showed that current background pain is significantly correlated with both cold discrimination and cold pain threshold in the skin over the TrM in individuals with WAD. These findings imply that thermal sensitivity is an important factor to consider in providing nursing care to individuals with WAD. Because biopsychosocial factors also influence the experience of pain in individuals with WAD, the role of nurses includes not only the description of the pain phenomenon but also the identification of relieving and aggravating factors.

  20. Catastrophic misinterpretations as a predictor of symptom change during treatment for panic disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teachman, Bethany A; Marker, Craig D; Clerkin, Elise M

    2010-12-01

    Cognitive models of panic disorder suggest that change in catastrophic misinterpretations of bodily sensations will predict symptom reduction. To examine change processes, we used a repeated measures design to evaluate whether the trajectory of change in misinterpretations over the course of 12-week cognitive behavior therapy is related to the trajectory of change in a variety of panic-relevant outcomes. Participants had a primary diagnosis of panic disorder (N = 43; 70% female; mean age = 40.14 years). Race or ethnicity was reported as 91% Caucasian, 5% African American, 2.3% biracial, and 2.3% "other." Change in catastrophic misinterpretations (assessed with the Brief Body Sensations Interpretation Questionnaire; Clark et al., 1997) was used to predict a variety of treatment outcomes, including overall panic symptom severity (assessed with the Panic Disorder Severity Scale [PDSS]; Shear et al., 1997), panic attack frequency (assessed with the relevant PDSS item), panic-related distress/apprehension (assessed by a latent factor, including peak anxiety in response to a panic-relevant stressor-a straw breathing task), and avoidance (assessed by a latent factor, which included the Fear Questionnaire-Agoraphobic Avoidance subscale; Marks & Mathews, 1979). Bivariate latent difference score modeling indicated that, as expected, change in catastrophic misinterpretations predicted subsequent reductions in overall symptom severity, panic attack frequency, distress/apprehension, and avoidance behavior. However, change in the various symptom domains was not typically a significant predictor of later interpretation change (except for the distress/apprehension factor). These results provide considerable support for the cognitive model of panic and speak to the temporal sequence of change processes during therapy. (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

  1. Quality of life in major depressive disorder: the role of pain and pain catastrophizing cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Ka-Fai; Tso, Kwok-Chu; Yeung, Wing-Fai; Li, Wei-Hui

    2012-05-01

    Pain symptoms are frequent complaints in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD). Although it is known that pain intensity and pain-related cognition predict quality of life (QOL) in patients with chronic pain, limited studies have examined their roles in MDD. The study aimed to determine whether pain and pain catastrophizing were independent predictors of QOL in MDD after accounting for the impact of anxiety and depression. This is a prospective, naturalistic follow-up study. Ninety-one Chinese patients were enrolled during an acute episode of MDD, 82 of them were reassessed 3 months later using the same assessment on pain, anxiety, depression, and QOL. Pain intensity was evaluated using a verbal rating scale and a visual analog scale. Quality of life was assessed using the 36-item Short Form Health Survey. Pain-related cognition was assessed at baseline with the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. There was significant improvement in pain, anxiety, depression, and QOL from baseline to 3-month follow-up. Hierarchical regression analyses showed that pain intensity was significantly associated with QOL at baseline and 3 months. Pain complaint was more important than anxiety and depressive symptoms in predicting changes in both physical and psychosocial domains of QOL. After controlling for the severity of pain, anxiety, and depression, Pain Catastrophizing Scale score was independently associated with QOL in MDD. The study supports the specific role of pain and pain-related cognition in predicting QOL in depressed patients. Further studies targeting pain-related cognition for improving the outcome of MDD are necessary. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Does User Fee Removal Policy Provide Financial Protection from Catastrophic Health Care Payments? Evidence from Zambia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Masiye

    Full Text Available Out-of-pocket payments in health care have been shown to impose significant burden on households in Sub-Saharan Africa, leading to constrained access to health care and impoverishment. In an effort to reduce the financial burden imposed on households by user fees, some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have abolished user fees in the health sector. Zambia is one of few countries in Sub-Saharan Africa to abolish user fees in primary health care facilities with a view to alleviating financial burden of out-of-pocket payments among the poor. The main aim of this paper was to examine the extent and patterns of financial protection from fees following the decision to abolish user fees in public primary health facilities.Our analysis is based on a nationally representative health expenditure and utilization survey conducted in 2014. We calculated the incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure based on households' out-of-pocket payments during a visit as a percentage of total household consumption expenditure. We further show the intensity of the problem of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE experienced by households.Our analysis show that following the removal of user fees, a majority of patients who visited public health facilities benefitted from free care at the point of use. Further, seeking care at public primary health facilities is associated with a reduced likelihood of incurring CHE after controlling for economic wellbeing and other covariates. However, 10% of households are shown to suffer financial catastrophe as a result of out-of-pocket payments. Further, there is considerable inequality in the incidence of CHE whereby the poorest expenditure quintile experienced a much higher incidence.Despite the removal of user fees at primary health care level, CHE is high among the poorest sections of the population. This study also shows that cost of transportation is mainly responsible for limiting the protective effectiveness of

  3. Topographic precursors and geological structures of deep-seated catastrophic landslides caused by Typhoon Talas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chigira, Masahiro; Tsou, Ching-Ying; Matsushi, Yuki; Hiraishi, Narumi; Matsuzawa, Makoto

    2013-11-01

    Typhoon Talas crossed the Japanese Islands between 2 and 5 September 2011, causing more than 70 deep-seated catastrophic landslides in a Jurassic to Paleogene-lower Miocene accretion complex. Detailed examination of the topographic features of 10 large landslides before the event, recorded on 1-m DEMs based on airborne laser scanner surveys, showed that all landslides had small scarps near their future crowns prior to the slide, and one landslide had linear depressions along its future crown as precursor topographic features. These scarps and linear depressions were caused by gravitational slope deformation that preceded the catastrophic failure. Although the scarps may have been enlarged by degradation, their sizes relative to the whole slopes suggest that minimal slope deformation had occurred in the period immediately before the catastrophic failure. The scarp ratio, defined as the ratio of length of a scarp to that of the whole slope both measured along the slope line, ranged from 5% to 21%. Careful examination of aerial photographs from another four large landslides, for which no high-resolution DEMs were available, suggested that they also developed scarps at their heads beforehand. Twelve of the 14 landslides we surveyed in the field had sliding surfaces with wedge-shaped discontinuities that consisted of faults and bedding, suggesting that the buildup of pore pressure occurs readily on wedge-shaped discontinuities in a gravitationally deformed rock body. Most of the faults were undulatory and were probably thrust faults that formed during accretion. Other types of gravitational deformation were also active; e.g., flexural toppling and buckling were observed to have preceded one landslide.

  4. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and pulmonary embolism in a 3-year-old child

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olivier, Carine; Blondiaux, Eleonore; Dacher, Jean-Nicolas; Blanc, Thierry; Borg, Jeanne-Yvonne

    2006-01-01

    We report a rare example of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) in a young child. A 3-year-old girl with no previous medical history presented with extensive and recurrent thromboses. The diagnosis of CAPS was based on the occurrence of cardiopulmonary embolism in the child with a high titre of autoantibodies directed against phospholipids and beta-2-glycoprotein 1. In spite of a relatively rapid diagnosis and multiple treatments, the outcome was unfavourable. Multimodality imaging, including both ultrasonography and spiral CT, allowed close follow-up of the thromboses. (orig.)

  5. [Demographic situation in Chernigiv area and its connection with Chernobyl catastrophe].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donets', M P

    2004-12-01

    The article presents statistics concerning demographic "crisis" in the regions of Chernigiv area and in Ukraine, as a whole with connection to consequences resulted from Chernobyl catastrophe. The crisis is characterized by increase in population mortality and birth rate reduction, that caused negative natural growth tendency of population. The factors causing reduction in population number of Chernigiv Oblast and in Ukraine as a whole are the following: the effect of ionizing radiation, social-economic indices (the reduction of population profits, unemployment, worsening of medical care, psychoemotional stress caused by the crisis situation in Ukraine, migration of the considerable number of population abroad).

  6. Markov Chain Model with Catastrophe to Determine Mean Time to Default of Credit Risky Assets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dharmaraja, Selvamuthu; Pasricha, Puneet; Tardelli, Paola

    2017-11-01

    This article deals with the problem of probabilistic prediction of the time distance to default for a firm. To model the credit risk, the dynamics of an asset is described as a function of a homogeneous discrete time Markov chain subject to a catastrophe, the default. The behaviour of the Markov chain is investigated and the mean time to the default is expressed in a closed form. The methodology to estimate the parameters is given. Numerical results are provided to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model on real data and their analysis is discussed.

  7. The impact of anxiety and catastrophizing on interleukin-6 responses to acute painful stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lazaridou A

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Asimina Lazaridou,1 Marc O Martel,1 Christine M Cahalan,1 Marise C Cornelius,1 Olivia Franceschelli,1 Claudia M Campbell,2 Jennifer A Haythornthwaite,2 Michael Smith,2 Joseph Riley,3 Robert R Edwards1 1Department of Anesthesiology, Harvard Medical School, Brigham & Women’s Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; 2Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA; 3Department of Community Dentistry and Behavioral Science, College of Dentistry, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA Objective: To examine the influence of anxiety and pain-related catastrophizing on the time course of acute interleukin-6 (IL-6 responses to standardized noxious stimulation among patients with chronic pain.Methods: Data were collected from 48 participants in the following demographically matched groups: patients with chronic pain (n=36 and healthy controls (n=12. Participants underwent a series of Quantitative Sensory Testing (QST procedures assessing responses to mechanical and thermal stimuli during two separate visits, in a randomized order. One visit consisted of standard, moderately painful QST procedures, while the other visit involved nonpainful analogs to these testing procedures. Blood samples were taken at baseline, and then for up to 2 hours after QST in order to study the time course of IL-6 responses.Results: Results of multilevel analyses revealed that IL-6 responses increased across assessment time points in both visits (p<0.001. While patients with chronic pain and healthy controls did not differ in the magnitude of IL-6 responses, psychological factors influenced IL-6 trajectories only in the chronic pain group. Among patients, increases in catastrophizing over the course of the QST session were associated with elevated IL-6 responses only during the painful QST session (p<0.05. When controlling for anxiety, results indicated that the main multilevel model among patients remained significant

  8. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and pulmonary embolism in a 3-year-old child

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olivier, Carine; Blondiaux, Eleonore; Dacher, Jean-Nicolas [University Hospital of Rouen, Department of Radiology, Rouen (France); Blanc, Thierry [University Hospital of Rouen, Department of Neonatal Medicine, Rouen (France); Borg, Jeanne-Yvonne [University Hospital of Rouen, Haematology Laboratory, Rouen (France)

    2006-08-15

    We report a rare example of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) in a young child. A 3-year-old girl with no previous medical history presented with extensive and recurrent thromboses. The diagnosis of CAPS was based on the occurrence of cardiopulmonary embolism in the child with a high titre of autoantibodies directed against phospholipids and beta-2-glycoprotein 1. In spite of a relatively rapid diagnosis and multiple treatments, the outcome was unfavourable. Multimodality imaging, including both ultrasonography and spiral CT, allowed close follow-up of the thromboses. (orig.)

  9. Lupus anticoagulant-hypoprothrombinemia syndrome and catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in a patient with antidomain I antibodies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galland, Joris; Mohamed, Shirine; Revuz, Sabine; de Maistre, Emmanuel; de Laat, Bas; Marie, Pierre-Yves; Zuily, Stéphane; Lévy, Bruno; Regnault, Véronique; Wahl, Denis

    2016-07-01

    Lupus anticoagulant-hypoprothrombinemia syndrome is a rare condition characterized by the association of acquired factor II deficiency and lupus anticoagulant. Contrary to classical antiphospholipid syndrome, it may cause severe life-threatening bleeding (89% of published cases). We report a patient, positive for antidomain I antibodies, with initially primary lupus anticoagulant-hypoprothrombinemia syndrome without previous clinical manifestation or underlying systemic disease. Five years later, he experienced the first systemic lupus erythematous flare. Within a few days, catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome was diagnosed with heart, liver and kidney involvement. The patient recovered under pulse steroids, intravenous heparin and intravenous immunoglobulins.

  10. Computer aid in rescue organisation on site in case of catastrophic situation on nuclear plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teissier, M.

    1992-01-01

    The rescue organisation in case of catastrophic situation is based on known principles: creation of medical buffer structures between hazard spot where injured people are being collected and rear hospitals, triage of victims as urgent casualties. We will propose computer aid in order to value the time used to prepare and evacuate all the victims from the site, knowing inventory of available means, waiting periods and lengths of intervention, types and number of victims. Thus, it is possible to optimize the former organisation, qualitatively and quantitatively to improve efficiency in rescuing operations. (author)

  11. Lithium Ion Battery (LIB) Charger: Spacesuit Battery Charger Design with 2-Fault Tolerance to Catastrophic Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darcy, Eric; Davies, Frank

    2009-01-01

    Charger design that is 2-fault tolerant to catastrophic has been achieved for the Spacesuit Li-ion Battery with key features. Power supply control circuit and 2 microprocessors independently control against overcharge. 3 microprocessor control against undercharge (false positive: Go for EVA) conditions. 2 independent channels provide functional redundancy. Capable of charge balancing cell banks in series. Cell manufacturing and performance uniformity is excellent with both designs. Once a few outliers are removed, LV cells are slightly more uniform than MoliJ cells. If cell balance feature of charger is ever invoked, it will be an indication of a significant degradation issue, not a nominal condition.

  12. Expectancies Mediate the Relations Among Pain Catastrophizing, Fear of Movement, and Return to Work Outcomes After Whiplash Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carriere, Junie S; Thibault, Pascal; Milioto, Maria; Sullivan, Michael J L

    2015-12-01

    Pain catastrophizing and fear of movement have been identified as key predictors of prolonged work disability after whiplash injury. However, little is known about the processes by which pain catastrophizing and fear of movement affect return to work. This study investigated the mediating role of expectancies on the relations between pain catastrophizing and return to work, and between fear of movement and return to work after whiplash injury. The study sample consisted of 154 individuals with whiplash injury who were enrolled in a multidisciplinary pain rehabilitation program. Participants completed measures of pain catastrophizing, fear of movement, and return-to-work expectancies after admission to a rehabilitation program. A follow-up telephone interview was used to assess work status 1 year after discharge. Consistent with previous research, analyses revealed that expectancies, pain catastrophizing, and fear of movement were significant predictors of return to work at 1-year follow-up. Regression analyses (bootstrapping) revealed that expectancies partially mediated the relation between catastrophizing and return to work. Expectancies completely mediated the relation between fear of movement and return to work. The significant predictive and mediating role of expectancies on return to work argues for the inclusion of expectancies as a specific target of intervention for individuals with whiplash injury. The findings suggest that expectancies might be part of the pathways by which pain catastrophizing and fear of movement affect return-to-work outcomes after whiplash injury. The findings argue for greater attention to return-to-work expectancies as a risk factor for problematic recovery outcomes as well as a target of intervention. Copyright © 2015 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Terrestrial invertebrates in the Rhynie chert ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunlop, Jason A; Garwood, Russell J

    2018-02-05

    The Early Devonian Rhynie and Windyfield cherts remain a key locality for understanding early life and ecology on land. They host the oldest unequivocal nematode worm (Nematoda), which may also offer the earliest evidence for herbivory via plant parasitism. The trigonotarbids (Arachnida: Trigonotarbida) preserve the oldest book lungs and were probably predators that practiced liquid feeding. The oldest mites (Arachnida: Acariformes) are represented by taxa which include mycophages and predators on nematodes today. The earliest harvestman (Arachnida: Opiliones) includes the first preserved tracheae, and male and female genitalia. Myriapods are represented by a scutigeromorph centipede (Chilopoda: Scutigeromorpha), probably a cursorial predator on the substrate, and a putative millipede (Diplopoda). The oldest springtails (Hexapoda: Collembola) were probably mycophages, and another hexapod of uncertain affinities preserves a gut infill of phytodebris. The first true insects (Hexapoda: Insecta) are represented by a species known from chewing (non-carnivorous?) mandibles. Coprolites also provide insights into diet, and we challenge previous assumptions that several taxa were spore-feeders. Rhynie appears to preserve a largely intact community of terrestrial animals, although some expected groups are absent. The known fossils are (ecologically) consistent with at least part of the fauna found around modern Icelandic hot springs.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The Rhynie cherts: our earliest terrestrial ecosystem revisited'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  14. Carbon dioxide efficiency of terrestrial enhanced weathering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moosdorf, Nils; Renforth, Phil; Hartmann, Jens

    2014-05-06

    Terrestrial enhanced weathering, the spreading of ultramafic silicate rock flour to enhance natural weathering rates, has been suggested as part of a strategy to reduce global atmospheric CO2 levels. We budget potential CO2 sequestration against associated CO2 emissions to assess the net CO2 removal of terrestrial enhanced weathering. We combine global spatial data sets of potential source rocks, transport networks, and application areas with associated CO2 emissions in optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The results show that the choice of source rocks and material comminution technique dominate the CO2 efficiency of enhanced weathering. CO2 emissions from transport amount to on average 0.5-3% of potentially sequestered CO2. The emissions of material mining and application are negligible. After accounting for all emissions, 0.5-1.0 t CO2 can be sequestered on average per tonne of rock, translating into a unit cost from 1.6 to 9.9 GJ per tonne CO2 sequestered by enhanced weathering. However, to control or reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations substantially with enhanced weathering would require very large amounts of rock. Before enhanced weathering could be applied on large scales, more research is needed to assess weathering rates, potential side effects, social acceptability, and mechanisms of governance.

  15. Terrestrial Sagnac delay constraining modified gravity models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimov, R. Kh.; Izmailov, R. N.; Potapov, A. A.; Nandi, K. K.

    2018-04-01

    Modified gravity theories include f(R)-gravity models that are usually constrained by the cosmological evolutionary scenario. However, it has been recently shown that they can also be constrained by the signatures of accretion disk around constant Ricci curvature Kerr-f(R0) stellar sized black holes. Our aim here is to use another experimental fact, viz., the terrestrial Sagnac delay to constrain the parameters of specific f(R)-gravity prescriptions. We shall assume that a Kerr-f(R0) solution asymptotically describes Earth's weak gravity near its surface. In this spacetime, we shall study oppositely directed light beams from source/observer moving on non-geodesic and geodesic circular trajectories and calculate the time gap, when the beams re-unite. We obtain the exact time gap called Sagnac delay in both cases and expand it to show how the flat space value is corrected by the Ricci curvature, the mass and the spin of the gravitating source. Under the assumption that the magnitude of corrections are of the order of residual uncertainties in the delay measurement, we derive the allowed intervals for Ricci curvature. We conclude that the terrestrial Sagnac delay can be used to constrain the parameters of specific f(R) prescriptions. Despite using the weak field gravity near Earth's surface, it turns out that the model parameter ranges still remain the same as those obtained from the strong field accretion disk phenomenon.

  16. Consequences of simulating terrestrial N dynamics for projecting future terrestrial C storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaehle, S.; Friend, A. D.; Friedlingstein, P.

    2009-04-01

    We present results of a new land surface model, O-CN, which includes a process-based coupling between the terrestrial cycling of energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen. The model represents the controls of the terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling on carbon (C) pools and fluxes through photosynthesis, respiration, changes in allocation patterns, as well as soil organic matter decomposition, and explicitly accounts for N leaching and gaseous losses. O-CN has been shown to give realistic results in comparison to observations at a wide range of scales, including in situ flux measurements, productivity databases, and atmospheric CO2 concentration data. Notably, O-CN simulates realistic responses of net primary productivity, foliage area, and foliage N content to elevated atmospheric [CO2] as evidenced at free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) sites (Duke, Oak Ridge). We re-examine earlier model-based assessments of the terrestrial C sequestration potential using a global transient O-CN simulation driven by increases in atmospheric [CO2], N deposition and climatic changes over the 21st century. We find that accounting for terrestrial N cycling about halves the potential to store C in response to increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations; mainly due to a reduction of the net C uptake in temperate and boreal forests. Nitrogen deposition partially alleviates the effect of N limitation, but is by far not sufficient to compensate for the effect completely. These findings underline the importance of an accurate representation of nutrient limitations in future projections of the terrestrial net CO2 exchanges and therefore land-climate feedback studies.

  17. Intersystem Interference Reduction for Overlaid HAPS-Terrestrial CDMA System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jeng-Ji; Wang, Wei-Ting; Li, Mingfu; Shiung, David; Ferng, Huei-Wen

    In this letter, we propose that directional antennas, combined with power management, be incorporated to reduce intersystem interference in a shared band overlaid high altitude platform station (HAPS)-terrestrial code division multiple access (CDMA) system. To eliminate the HAPS to terrestrial interference, the HAPS is accessed only via directional antennas under the proposed scheme. By doing so, the uplink power to the HAPS can accordingly be increased, so that the terrestrial to HAPS interference is also effectively suppressed.

  18. Equilibration of the terrestrial water, nitrogen, and carbon cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Schimel, David S.; Braswell, B. H.; Parton, W. J.

    1997-01-01

    Recent advances in biologically based ecosystem models of the coupled terrestrial, hydrological, carbon, and nutrient cycles have provided new perspectives on the terrestrial biosphere’s behavior globally, over a range of time scales. We used the terrestrial ecosystem model Century to examine relationships between carbon, nitrogen, and water dynamics. The model, run to a quasi-steady-state, shows strong correlations between carbon, water, and nitrogen fluxes that l...

  19. Commercialization of terrestrial applications of aerospace power technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landsberg, D.R.

    1992-01-01

    The potential for commercialization of terrestrial energy systems based upon aerospace power technology's explored. Threats to the aerospace power technology industry, caused by the end of the cold war and weak world economy are described. There are also new opportunities caused by increasing terrestrial energy needs and world-wide concern for the environment. In this paper, the strengths and weaknesses of the aerospace power industry in commercializing terrestrial energy technologies are reviewed. Finally, actions which will enable the aerospace power technology industry to commercialize products into terrestrial energy markets are described

  20. Pathways linking drug use and labour market trajectories: the role of catastrophic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Lindsey; Small, Will; Kerr, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    People affected by substance use disorders often experience sub-optimal employment outcomes. The role of drug use in processes that produce and entrench labour market precarity among people who inject drugs (PWID) have not, however, been fully described. We recruited 22 PWID from ongoing prospective cohort studies in Vancouver, Canada, with whom we conducted semi-structured retrospective interviews and then employed a thematic analysis that drew on concepts from life course theory to explore the mechanisms and pathways linking drug use and labour market trajectories. The participants' narratives identified processes corresponding to causation, whereby suboptimal employment outcomes led to harmful drug use; direct selection, where impairment, health complications or drug-seeking activities selected individuals out of employment; and indirect selection, where external factors, such as catastrophic events, marked the initiation or intensification of substance use concurrent with sudden changes in capacities for employment. Catastrophic events linking negative transitions in both drug use and labour market trajectories were of primary importance, demarcating critical initiation and transitional events in individual risk trajectories. These results challenge conventional assumptions about the primacy of drug use in determining employment outcomes among PWID and suggest the importance of multidimensional support to mitigate the initiation, accumulation and entrenchment of labour market and drug-related disadvantage. © 2015 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness.

  1. Expected utility and catastrophic risk in a stochastic economy-climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ikefuji, M. [Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Osaka (Japan); Laeven, R.J.A.; Magnus, J.R. [Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands); Muris, C. [CentER, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands)

    2010-11-15

    In the context of extreme climate change, we ask how to conduct expected utility analysis in the presence of catastrophic risks. Economists typically model decision making under risk and uncertainty by expected utility with constant relative risk aversion (power utility); statisticians typically model economic catastrophes by probability distributions with heavy tails. Unfortunately, the expected utility framework is fragile with respect to heavy-tailed distributional assumptions. We specify a stochastic economy-climate model with power utility and explicitly demonstrate this fragility. We derive necessary and sufficient compatibility conditions on the utility function to avoid fragility and solve our stochastic economy-climate model for two examples of such compatible utility functions. We further develop and implement a procedure to learn the input parameters of our model and show that the model thus specified produces quite robust optimal policies. The numerical results indicate that higher levels of uncertainty (heavier tails) lead to less abatement and consumption, and to more investment, but this effect is not unlimited.

  2. Gravothermal catastrophe and negative specific heat of self-gravitating systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hachisu, Izumi; Sugimoto, Daiichiro

    1978-01-01

    Thermodynamics of self-gravitating gas system, which is enclosed by an adiabatic spherical wall, is discussed. When the temperature distribution is isothermal, the system is in thermodynamic equilibrium in the sense that the first order variation of the total entropy of the system vanishes. However, the second order variation of the total entropy may be positive, when the effect of gravity exceeds a certain limit. Then, the system may evolve to make its entropy increase. This is the gravothermal catastrophe, which was pointed out first by Antonov in 1962, but for which some questions were raised concerning its reality. In the present paper, this catastrophe is analysed by extending functional space of variation to include non-isothermal perturbations. It results in two merits: It is most convenient to make a close relation with usual concepts in the thermodynamics of irreversible process, and the present formulation does not contain any singular quantities which brought a confusion in the interpretation of the real physical processes. (author)

  3. CSL protein regulates transcription of genes required to prevent catastrophic mitosis in fission yeast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Převorovský, Martin; Oravcová, Martina; Zach, Róbert; Jordáková, Anna; Bähler, Jürg; Půta, František; Folk, Petr

    2016-11-16

    For every eukaryotic cell to grow and divide, intricately coordinated action of numerous proteins is required to ensure proper cell-cycle progression. The fission yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe has been instrumental in elucidating the fundamental principles of cell-cycle control. Mutations in S. pombe 'cut' (cell untimely torn) genes cause failed coordination between cell and nuclear division, resulting in catastrophic mitosis. Deletion of cbf11, a fission yeast CSL transcription factor gene, triggers a 'cut' phenotype, but the precise role of Cbf11 in promoting mitotic fidelity is not known. We report that Cbf11 directly activates the transcription of the acetyl-coenzyme A carboxylase gene cut6, and the biotin uptake/biosynthesis genes vht1 and bio2, with the former 2 implicated in mitotic fidelity. Cbf11 binds to a canonical, metazoan-like CSL response element (GTGGGAA) in the cut6 promoter. Expression of Cbf11 target genes shows apparent oscillations during the cell cycle using temperature-sensitive cdc25-22 and cdc10-M17 block-release experiments, but not with other synchronization methods. The penetrance of catastrophic mitosis in cbf11 and cut6 mutants is nutrient-dependent. We also show that drastic decrease in biotin availability arrests cell proliferation but does not cause mitotic defects. Taken together, our results raise the possibility that CSL proteins play conserved roles in regulating cell-cycle progression, and they could guide experiments into mitotic CSL functions in mammals.

  4. Countertransference issues in staff caregivers who work to rehabilitate catastrophic-injury survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunther, M S

    1994-01-01

    Countertransference reactions experienced by caregivers who work to rehabilitate victims of catastrophic physical lesions arise from the fundamental characteristics of catastrophic lesions: they are life threatening, life altering, anatomy altering, and restoration to pre-illness normalcy virtually never occurs. No true preparation is possible: Major physical and psychological work is required to rebuild a traumatized personality and a damaged body so that a life of quality is possible. Countertransference refers to (therapist's) unconscious reaction to patient transference, i.e., to aspects of the patient's behavior that are the product of unconscious factors in the patient's personality, as well as the meanings attached by caregivers to patient's impairment and rehabilitation struggles. Countertransference reactions arise in caregivers from two sources: (1) Socially universal sources: the demands posed by patients' regression; patients' misplaced aggression; patients' thwarting of staff's (narcissistic) professionalism; the threat of obligatory identification; staff disgust at patient's body damage. (2) Individualized sources: individual residues of caregivers' own developmental experience (conscious and unconscious) with issues such as dependency, aggression, sexuality, self-esteem and autonomy. Solutions involve understanding and mastering the distinction between feelings and actions, and sparing patients from two actions: Assault or abandonment. Suggestions for management include better knowledge of basic psychodynamics; working toward continuous self-awareness; special group meetings; and selective use of educationally oriented psychiatric consultations. Three case examples are offered.

  5. Stability of interbed for salt cavern gas storage in solution mining considering cusp displacement catastrophe theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Yu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Cusp displacement catastrophe theory can be introduced to propose a new method about instability failure of the interbed for gas storage cavern in bedded salt in solution mining. We can calculate initial fracture drawing pace of this interbed to obtain 2D and 3D gas storage shapes at this time. Moreover, Stability evaluation of strength reduction finite element method (FEM based on this catastrophe theory can used to evaluate this interbed stability after initial fracture. A specific example is simulated to obtain the influence of the interbed depth, cavern internal pressure, and cavern building time on stability safety factor (SSF. The results indicate: the value of SSF will be lower with the increase of cavern building time in solution mining and the increase of interbed depth and also this value remains a rise with the increase of cavern internal pressure Especially, we can conclude that the second-fracture of the interbed may take place when this pressure is lower than 6 MPa or after 6 days later of the interbed after initial fracture. According to above analysis, some effective measures, namely elevating the tube up to the top of the interbed, or changing the circulation of in-and-out lines, can be introduced to avoid the negative effects when the second-fracture of the interbed may occur.

  6. Validity and Reliability of the Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire-Turkish Version

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayse Kart

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: Importance of catastrophic cognitions is well known for the development and maintance of panic disorder. Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire (CCQ measures thoughts associated with danger and was originally developed by Khawaja (1992. In this study, it is aimed to evaluate the validity and reliability of CCQ- Turkish version. Material and Method: CCQ was administered to 250 patients with panic disorder. Turkish version of CCQ was created by translation, back-translation and pilot assessment. Socio-demographic Data Form and CCQ Turkish version were administered to participants. Reliability of CCQ was analyzed by test-retest correlation, split-half technique, Cronbach%u2019s alpha coefficient. Construct validity was evaluated by factor analysis after the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO and Bartlett test had been performed. Principal component analysis and varimax rotation were used for factor analysis. Results: Fifty-five point six percent (n=139 of the participants were female and fourty-four point four percent (n=111 were male. Internal consistency of the questionnaire was calculated 0.920 by Cronbach alpha. In analysis performed by split-half method reliability coefficients of half questionnaire were found as 0.917 and 0.832. Again spearmen-brown coefficient was found as 0.875 by the same analysis. Factor analysis revealed five basic factors. These five factors explained %66.2 of the total variance. Discussion: The results of this study show that the Turkish version of CCQ is a reliable and valid scale.

  7. Complexities, Catastrophes and Cities: Emergency Dynamics in Varying Scenarios and Urban Topologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narzisi, Giuseppe; Mysore, Venkatesh; Byeon, Jeewoong; Mishra, Bud

    Complex Systems are often characterized by agents capable of interacting with each other dynamically, often in non-linear and non-intuitive ways. Trying to characterize their dynamics often results in partial differential equations that are difficult, if not impossible, to solve. A large city or a city-state is an example of such an evolving and self-organizing complex environment that efficiently adapts to different and numerous incremental changes to its social, cultural and technological infrastructure [1]. One powerful technique for analyzing such complex systems is Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) [9], which has seen an increasing number of applications in social science, economics and also biology. The agent-based paradigm facilitates easier transfer of domain specific knowledge into a model. ABM provides a natural way to describe systems in which the overall dynamics can be described as the result of the behavior of populations of autonomous components: agents, with a fixed set of rules based on local information and possible central control. As part of the NYU Center for Catastrophe Preparedness and Response (CCPR1), we have been exploring how ABM can serve as a powerful simulation technique for analyzing large-scale urban disasters. The central problem in Disaster Management is that it is not immediately apparent whether the current emergency plans are robust against such sudden, rare and punctuated catastrophic events.

  8. Catastrophic floods may pave the way for increased genetic diversity in endemic artesian spring snail populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Worthington Wilmer

    Full Text Available The role of disturbance in the promotion of biological heterogeneity is widely recognised and occurs at a variety of ecological and evolutionary scales. However, within species, the impact of disturbances that decimate populations are neither predicted nor known to result in conditions that promote genetic diversity. Directly examining the population genetic consequences of catastrophic disturbances however, is rarely possible, as it requires both longitudinal genetic data sets and serendipitous timing. Our long-term study of the endemic aquatic invertebrates of the artesian spring ecosystem of arid central Australia has presented such an opportunity. Here we show a catastrophic flood event, which caused a near total population crash in an aquatic snail species (Fonscochlea accepta endemic to this ecosystem, may have led to enhanced levels of within species genetic diversity. Analyses of individuals sampled and genotyped from the same springs sampled both pre (1988-1990 and post (1995, 2002-2006 a devastating flood event in 1992, revealed significantly higher allelic richness, reduced temporal population structuring and greater effective population sizes in nearly all post flood populations. Our results suggest that the response of individual species to disturbance and severe population bottlenecks is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and may depend on both their ecology (whether they are resilient or resistant to disturbance and the stability of the environmental conditions (i.e. frequency and intensity of disturbances in which they have evolved.

  9. Near-Death and Other Transpersonal Experiences Occurring During Catastrophic Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Madelaine

    2017-06-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe examples of near-death and other transpersonal experiences occurring during catastrophic events like floods, wars, bombings, and death camps. To date, researchers have limited their investigations of these transpersonal events to those occurring to seriously ill patients in hospitals, those dying from terminal illnesses, or to individuals experiencing a period of grief after the death of a loved one. Missing is awareness by first responders and emergency healthcare professionals about these transpersonal experiences and what to say to the individuals who have them. Some responders experience not only deaths of the victims they assist, but also deaths of their colleagues. Information about these transpersonal experiences can also be of comfort to them. The examples in this article include a near-death experience during the Vietnam War, an out-of-body experience after a bomb explosion during the Iraq War, a near-death visit to a woman imprisoned at Auschwitz, and two after-death communications, one from a person killed in Auschwitz and another from a soldier during World War I. Also included are interviews with two New York City policemen who were September 11, 2001 responders. It is hoped the information will provide knowledge of these experiences to those who care for those near death, or dying, or grieving because of catastrophic events, and encourage researchers to further investigate these experiences during disasters.

  10. Changing Weather Extremes Call for Early Warning of Potential for Catastrophic Fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, Matthias M.; Nolan, Rachael H.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Clarke, Hamish; Price, Owen F.; Bradstock, Ross A.

    2017-12-01

    Changing frequencies of extreme weather events and shifting fire seasons call for enhanced capability to forecast where and when forested landscapes switch from a nonflammable (i.e., wet fuel) state to the highly flammable (i.e., dry fuel) state required for catastrophic forest fires. Current forest fire danger indices used in Europe, North America, and Australia rate potential fire behavior by combining numerical indices of fuel moisture content, potential rate of fire spread, and fire intensity. These numerical rating systems lack the physical basis required to reliably quantify forest flammability outside the environments of their development or under novel climate conditions. Here, we argue that exceedance of critical forest flammability thresholds is a prerequisite for major forest fires and therefore early warning systems should be based on a reliable prediction of fuel moisture content plus a regionally calibrated model of how forest fire activity responds to variation in fuel moisture content. We demonstrate the potential of this approach through a case study in Portugal. We use a physically based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels.

  11. Gravothermal catastrophe and negative specific heat of self-gravitating systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hachisu, I; Sugimoto, D [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Coll. of General Education

    1978-07-01

    Thermodynamics of self-gravitating gas system, which is enclosed by an adiabatic spherical wall, is discussed. When the temperature distribution is isothermal, the system is in thermodynamic equilibrium in the sense that the first order variation of the total entropy of the system vanishes. However, the second order variation of the total entropy may be positive, when the effect of gravity exceeds a certain limit. Then, the system may evolve to make its entropy increase. This is the gravothermal catastrophe, which was pointed out first by Antonov in 1962, but for which some questions were raised concerning its reality. In the present paper, this catastrophe is analysed by extending functional space of variation to include non-isothermal perturbations. It results in two merits: It is most convenient to make a close relation with usual concepts in the thermodynamics of irreversible process, and the present formulation does not contain any singular quantities which brought a confusion in the interpretation of the real physical processes.

  12. Prevention of destructive tropical and extratropical storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, dangerous thunderstorms, and catastrophic floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Yu. Krasilnikov

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones and storms, hurricanes, powerful thunderclouds, which generate tornadoes, destructive extratropical cyclones, which result in catastrophic floods, are the powerful cloud systems that contain huge amount of water. According to the hypothesis argued in this paper, an electric field coupled with powerful clouds and electric forces play a cardinal role in supporting this huge mass of water at a high altitude in the troposphere and in the instability of powerful clouds sometimes during rather a long time duration. Based on this hypothesis, a highly effective method of volume electric charge neutralization of powerful clouds is proposed. It results in the decrease in an electric field, a sudden increase in precipitation, and subsequent degradation of powerful clouds. This method, based on the natural phenomenon, ensures the prevention of the intensification of tropical and extratropical cyclones and their transition to the storm and hurricane (typhoon stages, which makes it possible to avoid catastrophic floods. It also ensures the suppression of severe thunderclouds, which, in turn, eliminates the development of dangerous thunderstorms and the possibility of the emergence and intensification of tornadoes.

  13. Improvement of the plan of measures for cases of catastrophes corresponding to radiological accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jerez Vegueria, Pablo F.; Lopez Forteza; Yamil; Diaz Guerra, Pedro I.

    2003-01-01

    In the year 1988 the Plan of Measures for Cases of Catastrophe (PMCC) it was focused basically to the Central Electronuclear of Juragua and the Center of Investigations Nuclear both in construction in that moment. In Cuba, with the Ordinance Law Not. 170 of the System of Civil Defense of 1997 assign the EMNDC the responsibility for the address and coordination of the material resources and humans to make in front of any catastrophe type, including the emergencies radiological. However the radiological events that could happen in rest of those practical with ionizing radiations that were carried out in the country they were not contemplated in the old conception of planning of emergency of the PMCC. In the year 2001 the CNSN and EMNDC begin a revision of the national planning from the answer to radiological emergencies developing new conceptions of planning, preparation and answer to radiological emergencies using for it categories of planning recommended by the IAEA in new technical documents emitted to the effect. Presently work is exposed the new philosophy of planning and national answer that it sustains the current Annex radiological Accidents of the PMCC

  14. Forecast for Artificial Muscle Tremor Behavior Based on Dynamic Additional Grey Catastrophe Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Fu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Recently, bio-inspired artificial muscles based on ionic polymers have shown a bright perspective in engineering and medical research, but the inherent tremor behavior can cause instability of output response. In this paper, dynamic additional grey catastrophe prediction (DAGCP is proposed to forecast the occurrence time of tremor behavior, providing adequate preparation time for the suppression of the chitosan-based artificial muscles. DAGCP constructs various dimensions of time subsequence models under different starting points based on the threshold of tremor occurrence times and peak-to-peak values in unit time. Next, the appropriate subsequence is selected according to grey correlation degree and prediction accuracy, then it is updated with the newly generated values to achieve a real-time forecast of forthcoming tremor time. Compared with conventional grey catastrophe prediction (GCP, the proposed method has the following advantages: (1 the degradation of prediction accuracy caused by the immobilization of original parameters is prevented; (2 the dynamic input, real-time update and gradual forecast of time sequence are incorporated into the model. The experiment results show that the novel DAGCP can predict forthcoming tremor time earlier and more accurately than the conventional GCP. The generation mechanism of tremor behavior is illustrated as well.

  15. Electron-density critical points analysis and catastrophe theory to forecast structure instability in periodic solids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merli, Marcello; Pavese, Alessandro

    2018-03-01

    The critical points analysis of electron density, i.e. ρ(x), from ab initio calculations is used in combination with the catastrophe theory to show a correlation between ρ(x) topology and the appearance of instability that may lead to transformations of crystal structures, as a function of pressure/temperature. In particular, this study focuses on the evolution of coalescing non-degenerate critical points, i.e. such that ∇ρ(x c ) = 0 and λ 1 , λ 2 , λ 3 ≠ 0 [λ being the eigenvalues of the Hessian of ρ(x) at x c ], towards degenerate critical points, i.e. ∇ρ(x c ) = 0 and at least one λ equal to zero. The catastrophe theory formalism provides a mathematical tool to model ρ(x) in the neighbourhood of x c and allows one to rationalize the occurrence of instability in terms of electron-density topology and Gibbs energy. The phase/state transitions that TiO 2 (rutile structure), MgO (periclase structure) and Al 2 O 3 (corundum structure) undergo because of pressure and/or temperature are here discussed. An agreement of 3-5% is observed between the theoretical model and experimental pressure/temperature of transformation.

  16. Navigating catastrophes: Local but not global optimisation allows for macro-economic navigation of crises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harré, Michael S.

    2013-02-01

    Two aspects of modern economic theory have dominated the recent discussion on the state of the global economy: Crashes in financial markets and whether or not traditional notions of economic equilibrium have any validity. We have all seen the consequences of market crashes: plummeting share prices, businesses collapsing and considerable uncertainty throughout the global economy. This seems contrary to what might be expected of a system in equilibrium where growth dominates the relatively minor fluctuations in prices. Recent work from within economics as well as by physicists, psychologists and computational scientists has significantly improved our understanding of the more complex aspects of these systems. With this interdisciplinary approach in mind, a behavioural economics model of local optimisation is introduced and three general properties are proven. The first is that under very specific conditions local optimisation leads to a conventional macro-economic notion of a global equilibrium. The second is that if both global optimisation and economic growth are required then under very mild assumptions market catastrophes are an unavoidable consequence. Third, if only local optimisation and economic growth are required then there is sufficient parametric freedom for macro-economic policy makers to steer an economy around catastrophes without overtly disrupting local optimisation.

  17. Workshop on Oxygen in the Terrestrial Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-01-01

    This volume contains abstracts that have been accepted for presentation at the Workshop on Oxygen in the Terrestrial Planets, July 20-23,2004, Santa Fe, New Mexico. The contents include: 1) Experimental Constraints on Oxygen and Other Light Element Partitioning During Planetary Core Formation; 2) In Situ Determination of Fe(3+)/SigmaFe of Spinels by Electron Microprobe: An Evaluation of the Flank Method; 3) The Effect of Oxygen Fugacity on Large-Strain Deformation and Recrystallization of Olivine; 4) Plagioclase-Liquid Trace Element Oxygen Barometry and Oxygen Behaviour in Closed and Open System Magmatic Processes; 5) Core Formation in the Earth: Constraints from Ni and Co; 6) Oxygen Isotopic Compositions of the Terrestrial Planets; 7) The Effect of Oxygen Fugacity on Electrical Conduction of Olivine and Implications for Earth s Mantle; 8) Redox Chemical Diffusion in Silicate Melts: The Impact of the Semiconductor Condition; 9) Ultra-High Temperature Effects in Earth s Magma Ocean: Pt and W Partitioning; 10) Terrestrial Oxygen and Hydrogen Isotope Variations: Primordial Values, Systematics, Subsolidus Effects, Planetary Comparisons, and the Role of Water; 11) Redox State of the Moon s Interior; 12) How did the Terrestrial Planets Acquire Their Water?; 13) Molecular Oxygen Mixing Ratio and Its Seasonal Variability in the Martian Atmosphere; 14) Exchange Between the Atmosphere and the Regolith of Mars: Discussion of Oxygen and Sulfur Isotope Evidence; 15) Oxygen and Hydrogen Isotope Systematics of Atmospheric Water Vapor and Meteoric Waters: Evidence from North Texas; 16) Implications of Isotopic and Redox Heterogeneities in Silicate Reservoirs on Mars; 17) Oxygen Isotopic Variation of the Terrestrial Planets; 18) Redox Exchanges in Hydrous Magma; 19) Hydrothermal Systems on Terrestrial Planets: Lessons from Earth; 20) Oxygen in Martian Meteorites: A Review of Results from Mineral Equilibria Oxybarometers; 21) Non-Linear Fractionation of Oxygen Isotopes Implanted in

  18. Solar terrestrial coupling through space plasma processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birn, J.

    2000-01-01

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The project investigates plasma processes that govern the interaction between the solar wind, charged particles ejected from the sun, and the earth's magnetosphere, the region above the ionosphere governed by the terrestrial magnetic field. Primary regions of interest are the regions where different plasma populations interact with each other. These are regions of particularly dynamic plasma behavior, associated with magnetic flux and energy transfer and dynamic energy release. The investigations concerned charged particle transport and energization, and microscopic and macroscopic instabilities in the magnetosphere and adjacent regions. The approaches combined space data analysis with theory and computer simulations

  19. Nonlinear Waves in the Terrestrial Quasiparallel Foreshock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hnat, B; Kolotkov, D Y; O'Connell, D; Nakariakov, V M; Rowlands, G

    2016-12-02

    We provide strongly conclusive evidence that the cubic nonlinearity plays an important part in the evolution of the large amplitude magnetic structures in the terrestrial foreshock. Large amplitude nonlinear wave trains at frequencies above the proton cyclotron frequency are identified after nonharmonic slow variations are filtered out by applying the empirical mode decomposition. Numerical solutions of the derivative nonlinear Schrödinger equation, predicted analytically by the use of a pseudopotential approach, are found to be consistent with the observed wave forms. The approximate phase speed of these nonlinear waves, indicated by the parameters of numerical solutions, is of the order of the local Alfvén speed. We suggest that the feedback of the large amplitude fluctuations on background plasma is reflected in the evolution of the pseudopotential.

  20. Actinide elements in aquatic and terrestrial environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bondietti, E.A.

    1978-01-01

    Progress is reported in terrestrial ecology studies with regard to plutonium in biota from the White Oak Creek forest; comparative distribution of plutonium in two forest ecosystems; an ecosystem model of plutonium dynamics; actinide element metabolism in cotton rats; and crayfish studies. Progress is reported in aquatic studies with regard to transuranics in surface waters, frogs, benthic algae, and invertebrates from pond 3513; and radioecology of transuranic elements in cotton rats bordering waste pond 3513. Progress is also reported in stability of trivalent plutonium in White Oak Lake water; chemistry of plutonium, americium, curium, and uranium in pond water; uranium, thorium, and plutonium in small mammals; and effect of soil pretreatment on the distribution of plutonium