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Sample records for term structure models

  1. Dynamic term structure models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller; Meldrum, Andrew

    This paper studies whether dynamic term structure models for US nominal bond yields should enforce the zero lower bound by a quadratic policy rate or a shadow rate specification. We address the question by estimating quadratic term structure models (QTSMs) and shadow rate models with at most four...

  2. Quadratic Term Structure Models in Discrete Time

    OpenAIRE

    Marco Realdon

    2006-01-01

    This paper extends the results on quadratic term structure models in continuos time to the discrete time setting. The continuos time setting can be seen as a special case of the discrete time one. Recursive closed form solutions for zero coupon bonds are provided even in the presence of multiple correlated underlying factors. Pricing bond options requires simple integration. Model parameters may well be time dependent without scuppering such tractability. Model estimation does not require a r...

  3. A Parametric Factor Model of the Term Structure of Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haldrup, Niels; Rosenskjold, Carsten Paysen T.

    The prototypical Lee-Carter mortality model is characterized by a single common time factor that loads differently across age groups. In this paper we propose a factor model for the term structure of mortality where multiple factors are designed to influence the age groups differently via...... on the loading functions, the factors are not designed to be orthogonal but can be dependent and can possibly cointegrate when the factors have unit roots. We suggest two estimation procedures similar to the estimation of the dynamic Nelson-Siegel term structure model. First, a two-step nonlinear least squares...... procedure based on cross-section regressions together with a separate model to estimate the dynamics of the factors. Second, we suggest a fully specified model estimated by maximum likelihood via the Kalman filter recursions after the model is put on state space form. We demonstrate the methodology for US...

  4. Multivariate Term Structure Models with Level and Heteroskedasticity Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2005-01-01

    The paper introduces and estimates a multivariate level-GARCH model for the long rate and the term-structure spread where the conditional volatility is proportional to the ãth power of the variable itself (level effects) and the conditional covariance matrix evolves according to a multivariate GA...... and the level model. GARCH effects are more important than level effects. The results are robust to the maturity of the interest rates. Udgivelsesdato: MAY...

  5. Monte Carlo Euler approximations of HJM term structure financial models

    KAUST Repository

    Björk, Tomas

    2012-11-22

    We present Monte Carlo-Euler methods for a weak approximation problem related to the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) term structure model, based on Itô stochastic differential equations in infinite dimensional spaces, and prove strong and weak error convergence estimates. The weak error estimates are based on stochastic flows and discrete dual backward problems, and they can be used to identify different error contributions arising from time and maturity discretization as well as the classical statistical error due to finite sampling. Explicit formulas for efficient computation of sharp error approximation are included. Due to the structure of the HJM models considered here, the computational effort devoted to the error estimates is low compared to the work to compute Monte Carlo solutions to the HJM model. Numerical examples with known exact solution are included in order to show the behavior of the estimates. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

  6. Monte Carlo Euler approximations of HJM term structure financial models

    KAUST Repository

    Bjö rk, Tomas; Szepessy, Anders; Tempone, Raul; Zouraris, Georgios E.

    2012-01-01

    We present Monte Carlo-Euler methods for a weak approximation problem related to the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) term structure model, based on Itô stochastic differential equations in infinite dimensional spaces, and prove strong and weak error convergence estimates. The weak error estimates are based on stochastic flows and discrete dual backward problems, and they can be used to identify different error contributions arising from time and maturity discretization as well as the classical statistical error due to finite sampling. Explicit formulas for efficient computation of sharp error approximation are included. Due to the structure of the HJM models considered here, the computational effort devoted to the error estimates is low compared to the work to compute Monte Carlo solutions to the HJM model. Numerical examples with known exact solution are included in order to show the behavior of the estimates. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

  7. Nonlinear Kalman Filtering in Affine Term Structure Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Dorion, Christian; Jacobs, Kris

    When the relationship between security prices and state variables in dynamic term structure models is nonlinear, existing studies usually linearize this relationship because nonlinear fi…ltering is computationally demanding. We conduct an extensive investigation of this linearization and analyze...... the potential of the unscented Kalman …filter to properly capture nonlinearities. To illustrate the advantages of the unscented Kalman …filter, we analyze the cross section of swap rates, which are relatively simple non-linear instruments, and cap prices, which are highly nonlinear in the states. An extensive...

  8. Essays on financial econometrics : modeling the term structure of interest rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwman, Kees Evert

    2008-01-01

    This dissertation bundles five studies in financial econometrics that are related to the theme of modeling the term structure of interest rates. The main contribution of this dissertation is a new arbitrage-free term structure model that is applied in an empirical analysis of the US term structure.

  9. Term structure of sovereign spreads: a contingent claim model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katia Rocha

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a simple structural model to estimate the termstructure and the implied default probability of a selected group of emerging countries, which account for 54% of the JPMorgan EMBIG index on average for the period 2000-2005. The real exchange rate dynamic, modeled as a pure diffusion process, is assumed to trigger default. The calibrated model generates sovereign spread curves consistent to market data. The results suggest that the market is systematically overpricing spreads for Brazil in 100 basis points, whereas for Mexico, Russia and Turkey the model is able to reproduce the market behavior.Este trabalho propõe um modelo estrutural para estimar a estrutura a termo e a probabilidade implícita de default de países emergentes que representam, em média, 54% do índice EMBIG do JPMorgan no período de 2000-2005. A taxa de câmbio real, modelada como um processo de difusão simples, é considerada como indicativa de default. O modelo calibrado gera a estrutura a termo dos spreads consistente com dados de mercado, indicando que o mercado sistematicamente sobre-estima os spreads para o Brasil em 100 pontos base na média, enquanto para México, Rússia e Turquia reproduz o comportamento do mercado.

  10. A generalized one-factor term structure model and pricing of interest rate derivative securities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, George J.

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to propose a nonparametric interest rate term structure model and investigate its implications on term structure dynamics and prices of interest rate derivative securities. The nonparametric spot interest rate process is estimated from the observed short-term interest

  11. Testing Affine Term Structure Models in Case of Transaction Costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.J.A.G.; Melenberg, B.; Nijman, T.E.

    1999-01-01

    In this paper we empirically analyze the impact of transaction costs on the performance of affine interest rate models. We test the implied (no arbitrage) Euler restrictions, and we calculate the specification error bound of Hansen and Jagannathan to measure the extent to which a model is

  12. Risk management under a two-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

    OpenAIRE

    Manuel Moreno

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents several applications to interest rate risk management based on a two-factor continuous-time model of the term structure of interest rates previously presented in Moreno (1996). This model assumes that default free discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and two factors, the long-term interest rate and the spread (difference between the long-term rate and the short-term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Several new measures of ``generalized duration" are p...

  13. Estimating the Term Structure With a Semiparametric Bayesian Hierarchical Model: An Application to Corporate Bonds1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Ensor, Katherine B.; Rosner, Gary L.

    2011-01-01

    The term structure of interest rates is used to price defaultable bonds and credit derivatives, as well as to infer the quality of bonds for risk management purposes. We introduce a model that jointly estimates term structures by means of a Bayesian hierarchical model with a prior probability model based on Dirichlet process mixtures. The modeling methodology borrows strength across term structures for purposes of estimation. The main advantage of our framework is its ability to produce reliable estimators at the company level even when there are only a few bonds per company. After describing the proposed model, we discuss an empirical application in which the term structure of 197 individual companies is estimated. The sample of 197 consists of 143 companies with only one or two bonds. In-sample and out-of-sample tests are used to quantify the improvement in accuracy that results from approximating the term structure of corporate bonds with estimators by company rather than by credit rating, the latter being a popular choice in the financial literature. A complete description of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme for the proposed model is available as Supplementary Material. PMID:21765566

  14. Term Structure Persistence

    OpenAIRE

    Abbritti, M. (Mirko); Gil-Alana, L.A. (Luis A.); Lovcha, Y. (Yuliya); Moreno, A. (Antonio)

    2012-01-01

    Stationary I(0) models employed in yield curve analysis typically imply an unrealistically low degree of volatility in long-run short-rate expectations due to fast mean reversion. In this paper we propose a novel multivariate affine term structure model with a two-fold source of persistence in the yield curve: Long-memory and short-memory. Our model, based on an I(d) specification, nests the I(0) and I(1) models as special cases and the I(0) model is decisively rejected by the data. Our model...

  15. Estimating Multivariate Exponentail-Affine Term Structure Models from Coupon Bound Prices using Nonlinear Filtering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baadsgaard, Mikkel; Nielsen, Jan Nygaard; Madsen, Henrik

    2000-01-01

    An econometric analysis of continuous-timemodels of the term structure of interest rates is presented. A panel of coupon bond prices with different maturities is used to estimate the embedded parameters of a continuous-discrete state space model of unobserved state variables: the spot interest rate...... noise term should account for model errors. A nonlinear filtering method is used to compute estimates of the state variables, and the model parameters are estimated by a quasimaximum likelihood method provided that some assumptions are imposed on the model residuals. Both Monte Carlo simulation results...

  16. Calibration of short rate term structure models from bid-ask coupon bond prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes-Gonçalves, Erika; Gzyl, Henryk; Mayoral, Silvia

    2018-02-01

    In this work we use the method of maximum entropy in the mean to provide a model free, non-parametric methodology that uses only market data to provide the prices of the zero coupon bonds, and then, a term structure of the short rates. The data used consists of the prices of the bid-ask ranges of a few coupon bonds quoted in the market. The prices of the zero coupon bonds obtained in the first stage, are then used as input to solve a recursive set of equations to determine a binomial recombinant model of the short term structure of the interest rates.

  17. Characteristics of geothermal structures of Poprad basin in terms of numerical modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bagelova, A.; Fendek, M.

    2011-01-01

    Poprad basin is one of the promising areas in terms of geothermal resources. In terms of impact on the environment and the exploitation of geothermal waters it is important to quantify the natural geothermal water quantity. One of the most progressive methods of their evaluation is a method of numerical modelling. Before model creation it is necessary to characterize the geothermal structure. Character of hydro-geothermal structure consists of an analysis of Spatial distribution of collectors, hydraulic properties of collectors of geothermal water, pressure and temperature conditions and boundary conditions. Basic characteristics of geothermal energy transfer in the Poprad basin are described. (authors)

  18. Modeling the Interest Rate Term Structure: Derivatives Contracts Dynamics and Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro L. Valls Pereira

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with a model for the term structure of interest rates and the valuation of derivative contracts directly dependent on it. The work is of a theoretical nature and deals, exclusively, with continuous time models, making ample use of stochastic calculus results and presents original contributions that we consider relevant to the development of the fixed income market modeling. We develop a new multifactorial model of the term structure of interest rates. The model is based on the decomposition of the yield curve into the factors level, slope, curvature, and the treatment of their collective dynamics. We show that this model may be applied to serve various objectives: analysis of bond price dynamics, valuation of derivative contracts and also market risk management and formulation of operational strategies which is presented in another article.

  19. The Shape and Term Structure of the Index Option Smirk: Why Multifactor Stochastic Volatility Models Work so Well

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Heston, Steven; Jacobs, Kris

    variation in the smirk, the model also provides more flexible modeling of the volatility term structure. Our empirical results indicate that the model improves on the benchmark Heston model by 24% in-sample and 23% out-of-sample. The better fit results from improvements in the modeling of the term structure...... dimension as well as the moneyness dimension....

  20. The performance of multi-factor term structure models for pricing and hedging caps and swaptions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.J.A.G.; Klaassen, P.; Melenberg, B.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper we empirically compare a wide range of different term structure models when it comes to the pricing and, in particular, hedging of caps and swaptions. We analyze the influence of the number of factors on the hedging and pricing results, and investigate which type of data "interest rate

  1. The Performance of Multi-Factor Term Structure Models for Pricing and Hedging Caps and Swaptions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.J.A.G.; Klaassen, P.; Melenberg, B.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper we empirically compare different term structure models when it comes to the pricing and hedging of caps and swaptions.We analyze the influence of the number of factors on the pricing and hedging results, and investigate which type of data -interest rate data or derivative price data-

  2. Explaining Macroeconomic and Term Structure Dynamics Jointly in a Non-linear DSGE Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller

    This paper shows how a standard DSGE model can be extended to reproduce the dynamics in the 10 year yield curve for the post-war US economy with a similar degree of precision as in reduced form term structure models. At the same time, we are able to reproduce the dynamics of four key macro...... variables almost perfectly. Our extension of a standard DSGE model is to introduce three non-stationary shocks which allow us to explain interest rates with medium and long maturities without distorting the dynamics of the macroeconomy....

  3. Interest Rates with Long Memory: A Generalized Affine Term-Structure Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Osterrieder, Daniela

    .S. government bonds, we model the time series of the state vector by means of a co-fractional vector autoregressive model. The implication is that yields of all maturities exhibit nonstationary, yet mean-reverting, long-memory behavior of the order d ≈ 0.87. The long-run dynamics of the state vector are driven......We propose a model for the term structure of interest rates that is a generalization of the discrete-time, Gaussian, affine yield-curve model. Compared to standard affine models, our model allows for general linear dynamics in the vector of state variables. In an application to real yields of U...... forecasts that outperform several benchmark models, especially at long forecasting horizons....

  4. Expected Term Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buraschi, Andrea; Piatti, Ilaria; Whelan, Paul

    We construct and study the cross-sectional properties of survey-based bond risk premia and compare them to their traditional statistical counterparts. We document large heterogeneity in skill, identify top forecasters, and learn about the importance of subjective risk premia in long-term bonds...... dynamics. The consensus is not a sufficient statistics of the cross-section of expectations and we propose an alternative real-time aggregate measure of risk premia consistent with Friedmans market selection hypothesis. We then use this measure to evaluate structural models and find support...

  5. Long-term reorganization of structural brain networks in a rabbit model of intrauterine growth restriction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batalle, Dafnis; Muñoz-Moreno, Emma; Arbat-Plana, Ariadna; Illa, Miriam; Figueras, Francesc; Eixarch, Elisenda; Gratacos, Eduard

    2014-10-15

    Characterization of brain changes produced by intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is among the main challenges of modern fetal medicine and pediatrics. This condition affects 5-10% of all pregnancies and is associated with a wide range of neurodevelopmental disorders. Better understanding of the brain reorganization produced by IUGR opens a window of opportunity to find potential imaging biomarkers in order to identify the infants with a high risk of having neurodevelopmental problems and apply therapies to improve their outcomes. Structural brain networks obtained from diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a promising tool to study brain reorganization and to be used as a biomarker of neurodevelopmental alterations. In the present study this technique is applied to a rabbit animal model of IUGR, which presents some advantages including a controlled environment and the possibility to obtain high quality MRI with long acquisition times. Using a Q-Ball diffusion model, and a previously published rabbit brain MRI atlas, structural brain networks of 15 IUGR and 14 control rabbits at 70 days of age (equivalent to pre-adolescence human age) were obtained. The analysis of graph theory features showed a decreased network infrastructure (degree and binary global efficiency) associated with IUGR condition and a set of generalized fractional anisotropy (GFA) weighted measures associated with abnormal neurobehavior. Interestingly, when assessing the brain network organization independently of network infrastructure by means of normalized networks, IUGR showed increased global and local efficiencies. We hypothesize that this effect could reflect a compensatory response to reduced infrastructure in IUGR. These results present new evidence on the long-term persistence of the brain reorganization produced by IUGR that could underlie behavioral and developmental alterations previously described. The described changes in network organization have the potential to be used

  6. Studying Term Structure of SHIBOR with the Two-Factor Vasicek Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaoqun Ma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the development of the Chinese interest rate market, SHIBOR is playing an increasingly important role. Based on principal component analysing SHIBOR, a two-factor Vasicek model is established to portray the change in SHIBOR with different terms. And parameters are estimated by using the Kalman filter. The model is also used to fit and forecast SHIBOR with different terms. The results show that two-factor Vasicek model fits SHIBOR well, especially for SHIBOR in terms of three months or more.

  7. Microscopic structure of an interacting boson model in terms of the dyson boson mapping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geyer, H.B.; Lee, S.Y.

    1982-01-01

    In an application of the generalized Dyson boson mapping to a shell model Hamiltonian acting in a single j shell, a clear distinction emerges between pair bosons and kinematically determined seniority bosons. As in the Otsuka-Arima-Iachello method it is found that the latter type of boson determines the structure of an interactive boson-model-like Hamiltonian for the single j-shell model. It is furthermore shown that the Dyson boson mapping formalism is equally well suited for investigating possible interactive boson-model-like structures in a multishell case, where dynamical considerations are expected to play a much more important role in determining the structure of physical bosons

  8. A Model of Target Changes and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Pierluigi Balduzzi; Giuseppe Bertola; Silverio Foresi

    1993-01-01

    We explore the effects of official targeting policy on the term-structure of nominal interest rates, adapting relevant insights from theoretical work on "peso problems" to account for realistic infrequency of target changes. Our analysis of daily U.S. interest rates and newly available historical targets provides an interpretation for persistent spreads between short-term money-market rates and overnight fed-funds targets, and for the poor performance of expectations-hypothesis tests: it is t...

  9. Model abstraction addressing long-term simulations of chemical degradation of large-scale concrete structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacques, D.; Perko, J.; Seetharam, S.; Mallants, D.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology to assess the spatial-temporal evolution of chemical degradation fronts in real-size concrete structures typical of a near-surface radioactive waste disposal facility. The methodology consists of the abstraction of a so-called full (complicated) model accounting for the multicomponent - multi-scale nature of concrete to an abstracted (simplified) model which simulates chemical concrete degradation based on a single component in the aqueous and solid phase. The abstracted model is verified against chemical degradation fronts simulated with the full model under both diffusive and advective transport conditions. Implementation in the multi-physics simulation tool COMSOL allows simulation of the spatial-temporal evolution of chemical degradation fronts in large-scale concrete structures. (authors)

  10. The SR Approach: a new Estimation Method for Non-Linear and Non-Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller; Christensen, Bent Jesper

    This paper suggests a new and easy approach to estimate linear and non-linear dynamic term structure models with latent factors. We impose no distributional assumptions on the factors and they may therefore be non-Gaussian. The novelty of our approach is to use many observables (yields or bonds p...

  11. Nonparametric modeling of US interest rate term structure dynamics and implications on the prices of derivative securities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, GJ

    1998-01-01

    This paper develops a nonparametric model of interest rate term structure dynamics based an a spot rate process that permits only positive interest rates and a market price of interest rate risk that precludes arbitrage opportunities. Both the spot rate process and the market price of interest rate

  12. An Asset Pricing Approach to Testing General Term Structure Models including Heath-Jarrow-Morton Specifications and Affine Subclasses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; van der Wel, Michel

    of the risk premium is associated with the slope factor, and individual risk prices depend on own past values, factor realizations, and past values of other risk prices, and are significantly related to the output gap, consumption, and the equity risk price. The absence of arbitrage opportunities is strongly...... is tested, but in addition to the standard bilinear term in factor loadings and market prices of risk, the relevant mean restriction in the term structure case involves an additional nonlinear (quadratic) term in factor loadings. We estimate our general model using likelihood-based dynamic factor model...... techniques for a variety of volatility factors, and implement the relevant likelihood ratio tests. Our factor model estimates are similar across a general state space implementation and an alternative robust two-step principal components approach. The evidence favors time-varying market prices of risk. Most...

  13. Modeling Long-term Creep Performance for Welded Nickel-base Superalloy Structures for Power Generation Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen, Chen [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States); Gupta, Vipul [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States); Huang, Shenyan [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States); Soare, Monica [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States); Zhao, Pengyang [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States); Wang, Yunzhi [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States)

    2017-02-28

    The goal of this project is to model long-term creep performance for nickel-base superalloy weldments in high temperature power generation systems. The project uses physics-based modeling methodologies and algorithms for predicting alloy properties in heterogeneous material structures. The modeling methodology will be demonstrated on a gas turbine combustor liner weldment of Haynes 282 precipitate-strengthened nickel-base superalloy. The major developments are: (1) microstructure-property relationships under creep conditions and microstructure characterization (2) modeling inhomogeneous microstructure in superalloy weld (3) modeling mesoscale plastic deformation in superalloy weld and (4) a constitutive creep model that accounts for weld and base metal microstructure and their long term evolution. The developed modeling technology is aimed to provide a more efficient and accurate assessment of a material’s long-term performance compared with current testing and extrapolation methods. This modeling technology will also accelerate development and qualification of new materials in advanced power generation systems. This document is a final technical report for the project, covering efforts conducted from October 2014 to December 2016.

  14. Option-implied term structures

    OpenAIRE

    Vogt, Erik

    2014-01-01

    The illiquidity of long-maturity options has made it difficult to study the term structures of option spanning portfolios. This paper proposes a new estimation and inference framework for these option-implied term structures that addresses long-maturity illiquidity. By building a sieve estimator around the risk-neutral valuation equation, the framework theoretically justifies (fat-tailed) extrapolations beyond truncated strikes and between observed maturities while remaining nonparametric. Ne...

  15. A Forward-looking Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chun, Albert Lee

    of the forecasts are modeled jointly with the physical process driving their realizations. We extend this framework to allow for multiple-horizon forecasts to drive the short rate, yielding its novel interpretation as a forward-looking multiple-horizon monetary policy rule, which facilitates a decomposition...... of monetary policy and the yield curve into short and long horizon expectations. While short horizon forecasts can pin down the short rate, long horizon forecasts embed information that better describes longer maturity yields. In addition, short horizon forecasts of real output growth are obscured...

  16. Systemic inflammation combined with neonatal cerebellar haemorrhage aggravates long-term structural and functional outcomes in a mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tremblay, Sophie; Pai, Alex; Richter, Lindsay; Vafaei, Rod; Potluri, Praneetha; Ellegood, Jacob; Lerch, Jason P; Goldowitz, Daniel

    2017-11-01

    Despite the increased recognition of cerebellar injury in survivors of preterm birth, the neurodevelopmental consequences of isolated cerebellar injury have been largely unexplored and our current understanding of the functional deficits requires further attention in order to translate knowledge to best practices. Preterm infants are exposed to multiple stressors during their postnatal development including perinatal cerebellar haemorrhage (CBH) and postnatal infection, two major risk factors for neurodevelopmental impairments. We developed a translational mouse model of CBH and/or inflammation to measure the short- and long-term outcomes in cerebellar structure and function. Mice exposed to early combined insults of CBH and early inflammatory state (EIS) have a delay in grasping acquisition, neonatal motor deficits and deficient long-term memory. CBH combined with late inflammatory state (LIS) does not induce neonatal motor problems but leads to poor fine motor function and long-term memory deficits at adulthood. Early combined insults result in poor cerebellar growth from postnatal day 15 until adulthood shown by MRI, which are reflected in diminished volumes of cerebellar structures. There are also decreases in volumes of gray matter and hippocampus. Cerebellar microgliosis appears 24h after the combined insults and persists until postnatal day 15 in the cerebellar molecular layer and cerebellar nuclei in association with a disrupted patterning of myelin deposition, a delay of oligodendrocyte maturation and reduced white matter cerebellar volume. Together, these findings reveal poor outcomes in developing brains exposed to combined cerebellar perinatal insults in association with cerebellar hypoplasia, persistence of microgliosis and alterations of cerebellar white matter maturation and growth. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Designing HR Organizational Structures in terms of the HR Business Partner Model Principles from the Perspective of Czech Organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Stříteský

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes new trends related to the concepts contained in HR organizational structures within Czech organizations. In addition, it describes the specifics of the roles played by HR in those organizations which have transformed their HR departments in terms of the principles of the HR Business Partner Model, both in theory based on available resources, and at the practical level based on the results of primary examination. The goal of this paper is to present the key perceptions of the changes made in the HR structure within the organizations, as well as the impact of these changes on the effectiveness of the HR departments concerned. Another goal of the paper is to summarize the responsibilities of the newly created position known as the HR Business Partner in these organizations as well as the demands placed upon the personnel employed in the HR Business Partner role. The paper offers conclusions based on the results of both quantitative and qualitative surveys. It also contains a case study of one organization which has one of the best transformed HR departments, and whose services are classified, by internal clients, as being of high quality.

  18. Impairment and Abuse of Elderly by Staff in Long-Term Care in Michigan: Evidence from Structural Equation Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conner, Tom; Prokhorov, Artem; Page, Connie; Fang, Yu; Xiao, Yimin; Post, Lori A.

    2011-01-01

    Elder abuse in long-term care has become a very important public health concern. Recent estimates of elder abuse prevalence are in the range of 2% to 10% (Lachs & Pillemer, 2004), and current changes in population structure indicate a potential for an upward trend in prevalence (Malley-Morrison, Nolido, & Chawla, 2006; Post et al., 2006).…

  19. Business Organisational Structures of Global Companies: Use of the Territorial Model to Ensure Long-Term Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hana Stverkova

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available In today’s turbulently expanding business environment, during the fourth industrial revolution, it is necessary to respond to market trends and to adapt strategy and organisational structure appropriately. The article is focused on the reorganisation and optimisation of the business organisation structure of global companies. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and evaluate the use of the territorial business structure, within the framework of a global company, based on experimental research. Experiences with the introduction of a territorial organisational structure in a corporate enterprise have proven to be highly effective long-term, with productivity and sales volumes increasing. This territorial setting can be considered as a competitive advantage, which matches predicted market trends and is suitable for global businesses.

  20. Modeling Long-term Creep Performance for Welded Nickel-base Superalloy Structures for Power Generation Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen, Chen

    2015-01-01

    We report here a constitutive model for predicting long-term creep strain evolution in’ strengthened Ni-base superalloys. Dislocation climb-bypassing’, typical in intermediate’ volume fraction (~20%) alloys, is considered as the primary deformation mechanism. Dislocation shearing’ to anti-phase boundary (APB) faults and diffusional creep are also considered for high-stress and high-temperature low-stress conditions, respectively. Additional damage mechanism is taken into account for rapid increase in tertiary creep strain. The model has been applied to Alloy 282, and calibrated in a temperature range of 1375-1450°F, and stress range of 15-45ksi. The model parameters and a MATLAB code are provided. This report is prepared by Monica Soare and Chen Shen at GE Global Research. Technical discussions with Dr. Vito Cedro are greatly appreciated. This work was supported by DOE program DE-FE0005859

  1. Toyotarity. Term, model, range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanisław Borkowski

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The Toyotarity and BOST term was presented in the chapter. The BOST method allows to define relations between material resources and human resources and between human resources and human resources (TOYOTARITY. This term was also invented by the Author (and is legally protected. The idea of methodology is an outcome of 12 years of work.

  2. Iron Oxide Nanoparticles: Tunable Size Synthesis and Analysis in Terms of the Core-Shell Structure and Mixed Coercive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phong, P. T.; Oanh, V. T. K.; Lam, T. D.; Phuc, N. X.; Tung, L. D.; Thanh, Nguyen T. K.; Manh, D. H.

    2017-04-01

    Iron oxide nanoparticles (NPs) are currently a very active research field. To date, a comprehensive study of iron oxide NPs is still lacking not only on the size dependence of structural phases but also in the use of an appropriate model. Herein, we report on a systematic study of the structural and magnetic properties of iron oxide NPs prepared by a co-precipitation method followed by hydrothermal treatment. X-ray diffraction and transmission electron microscopy reveal that the NPs have an inverse spinel structure of iron oxide phase (Fe3O4) with average crystallite sizes ( D XRD) of 6-19 nm, while grain sizes ( D TEM) are of 7-23 nm. In addition, the larger the particle size, the closer the experimental lattice constant value is to that of the magnetite structure. Magnetic field-dependent magnetization data and analysis show that the effective anisotropy constants of the Fe3O4 NPs are about five times larger than that of their bulk counterpart. Particle size ( D) dependence of the magnetization and the non-saturating behavior observed in applied fields up to 50 kOe are discussed using the core-shell structure model. We find that with decreasing D, while the calculated thickness of the shell of disordered spins ( t ˜ 0.3 nm) remains almost unchanged, the specific surface areas S a increases significantly, thus reducing the magnetization of the NPs. We also probe the coercivity of the NPs by using the mixed coercive Kneller and Luborsky model. The calculated results indicate that the coercivity rises monotonously with the particle size, and are well matched with the experimental ones.

  3. The Term Structure of Credit Spreads on Euro Corporate Bonds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Landschoot, A.

    2003-01-01

    Although there is a broad literature on structural credit risk models, there has been little empirical testing of these models.In this paper we examine the term structure of credit spreads on euro corporate bonds and the empirical validation of structural credit risk models.The latter provide a

  4. Contribution to the study of corrosion in cementitious media for the phenomenological modelling of the long-term behaviour of reinforced concrete structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    L'hostis, V.

    2010-12-01

    Many of the facilities and structures involved in the nuclear industry call for reinforced concrete (RC) in their construction. The corrosion of rebars is the main ageing pathology that those RC structures will meet during their service life (leading to concrete cracking and structural bearing capacity decrease). Concrete carbonation and chloride ingress in concrete are both at the origin of the active corrosion state. Passive corrosion has also to be considered in a context of very long lifetime (waste management). It is of primary importance to dispose of accurate and validated tools in order to predict where and how damages will appear. In 2002, the Commissariat a l Energie atomique decided to develop an intensive research programme dedicated to predicting the long-term behaviour of RC structures affected by steel corrosion (CIMETAL Project). This document aims at synthesize the main outputs coming from the project and exposes the scientific strategy was drawn and applied in order to predict the long-term behaviour of RCs that were mainly exposed to carbonation conditions. That strategy includes experiments for the characterisation of 'short-term' and 'long-term' corrosion layouts and processes, as well as modelling stages, with a view not only to predicting the behaviour of RC, but also to pointing out phenomena that are further verified experimentally. (author)

  5. The term structure of oil futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabillon, J.

    1991-01-01

    In recent years, there has been a massive development of derivative financial products in oil markets. The main interest came from large energy end-users who found in them a welcome opportunity to lock in fixed or maximum prices for their supplies over a period of time. Oil companies and oil traders were able to provide tailor-made swaps or options for the specific needs of the end-users. In this paper, we present a two-variable model of the term structures of futures prices and volatilities assuming that the spot and long-term prices of oil are stochastic, and are the main determinants of the convenience yield function. Although the resulting convenience yield is stochastic, the model admits an analytic formulation under some restrictions. (author)

  6. The indirect association of job strain with long-term sickness absence through bullying: a mediation analysis using structural equation modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heidi Janssens

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In this longitudinal study the complex interplay between both job strain and bullying in relation to sickness absence was investigated. Following the “work environment hypothesis”, which establishes several work characteristics as antecedents of bullying, we assumed that job strain, conceptualized by the Job-Demand-Control model, has an indirect relation with long-term sickness absence through bullying. Methods The sample consisted of 2983 Belgian workers, aged 30 to 55 years, who participated in the Belstress III study. They completed a survey, including the Job Content Questionnaire and a bullying inventory, at baseline. Their sickness absence figures were registered during 1 year follow-up. Long-term sickness absence was defined as at least 15 consecutive days. A mediation analysis, using structural equation modeling, was performed to examine the indirect association of job strain through bullying with long-term sickness absence. The full structural model was adjusted for several possible confounders: age, gender, occupational group, educational level, company, smoking habits, alcohol use, body mass index, self-rated health, baseline long-term sickness absence and neuroticism. Results The results support the hypothesis: a significant indirect association of job strain with long-term sickness absence through bullying was observed, suggesting that bullying is an intermediate variable between job strain and long-term sickness absence. No evidence for the reversed pathway of an indirect association of bullying through job strain was found. Conclusions Bullying was observed as a mediating variable in the relation between job strain and sickness absence. The results suggest that exposure to job strain may create circumstances in which a worker risks to become a target of bullying. Our findings are generally in line with the work environment hypothesis, which emphasizes the importance of organizational work factors in the

  7. The indirect association of job strain with long-term sickness absence through bullying: a mediation analysis using structural equation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssens, Heidi; Braeckman, Lutgart; De Clercq, Bart; Casini, Annalisa; De Bacquer, Dirk; Kittel, France; Clays, Els

    2016-08-22

    In this longitudinal study the complex interplay between both job strain and bullying in relation to sickness absence was investigated. Following the "work environment hypothesis", which establishes several work characteristics as antecedents of bullying, we assumed that job strain, conceptualized by the Job-Demand-Control model, has an indirect relation with long-term sickness absence through bullying. The sample consisted of 2983 Belgian workers, aged 30 to 55 years, who participated in the Belstress III study. They completed a survey, including the Job Content Questionnaire and a bullying inventory, at baseline. Their sickness absence figures were registered during 1 year follow-up. Long-term sickness absence was defined as at least 15 consecutive days. A mediation analysis, using structural equation modeling, was performed to examine the indirect association of job strain through bullying with long-term sickness absence. The full structural model was adjusted for several possible confounders: age, gender, occupational group, educational level, company, smoking habits, alcohol use, body mass index, self-rated health, baseline long-term sickness absence and neuroticism. The results support the hypothesis: a significant indirect association of job strain with long-term sickness absence through bullying was observed, suggesting that bullying is an intermediate variable between job strain and long-term sickness absence. No evidence for the reversed pathway of an indirect association of bullying through job strain was found. Bullying was observed as a mediating variable in the relation between job strain and sickness absence. The results suggest that exposure to job strain may create circumstances in which a worker risks to become a target of bullying. Our findings are generally in line with the work environment hypothesis, which emphasizes the importance of organizational work factors in the origin of bullying. This study highlights that remodeling jobs to reduce

  8. Double logarithmic term Ln2(1/x) in the polarized non singlet structure function at small x in valon model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taghavi Shahri Fatemeh; Arash, F.

    2009-01-01

    We study the low x behavior of non-singlet spin structure Function, of the nucleon in the so-called the valon representation. We find the double logarithmic term Ln 2 (1/x) in the polarized non singlet structure function at small x with using the valon model .The Structure of the valon itself develops through the perturbative dressing of a valence quark in QCD, which is independent of the hosting hadron. The results of non-singlet spin structure Function is in excellent agreement with the experimental data from HERMES collaborations for the entire measured range of x. It also provides an acceptable agreement with the older data from SMC, E143 and E155 experiments. We have further compared our results with those from AA, BB, GRSV, and DNS global fits. (authors)

  9. [Long-term changes in availability of domestic nursing care based on family structure changes--a model calculation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinkel, R H; Hartmann, K; Lebok, U

    1997-04-01

    A central hypothesis in German family sociology is the observation of a disruption of family structures. If this disintegration prevails up to highest ages it must, among others, lead to an increasing inability to perform nursing care within families. The most important person in case of a need for nursing care is the spouse. The main topic of this paper is to determine whether demographic and familiar developments in Germany will increase or decrease the share of men and women at higher ages with a living spouse within the next decades. In spite of a slowly increasing share of the never-married and the divorced, on the average elderly men and women will be married to a greater and widowed to a much lesser proportion within the next decade. The Dutch LIPRO-model is used to calculate the exact numerical developments. The surprising result is primarily due to the fact that the actual high shares of the widowed are a consequence of distortions caused by the two World Wars. During the next few decades, these unusual developments will disappear even among the most elderly.

  10. Analyzing the term structure of interest rates using the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with time-varying parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopman, S.J.; Mallee, M.I.P.; van der Wel, M.

    2010-01-01

    In this article we introduce time-varying parameters in the dynamic Nelson-Siegel yield curve model for the simultaneous analysis and forecasting of interest rates of different maturities. The Nelson-Siegel model has been recently reformulated as a dynamic factor model with vector autoregressive

  11. Using targeted short-term field investigations to calibrate and evaluate the structure of a hydrological model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Hughes, DA

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available catchments and are applied in a daily version of the model. The results demonstrate the importance of ensuring that field observations are measuring the same hydrological variables as the model simulations. At one study site, there was a mismatch in the soil...

  12. Semantiz Structure of the Legal Term

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Екатерина Владимировна Кулевская

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article examines the semantic structure of the legal term. Nowadays, with the rapid development of cross-cultural communication, people, while pursuing their professional career, learn specific languages, including the language of law, with terms being its important component. Terms can often impede the process of successful cross-cultural communication so teaching cross-cultural communication, according to many researchers, including P. Cranmer and K. Koskinen, is immensely important. The article aims to demonstrate that a legal term, a word or phrase used in legislation, is a generalized name for a legal concept that may lack a precise meaning in practice as it is polysemous. To proof this statement, the semantic structure of the legal term is studied from the cognitive point of view. The key terms (term, frame, lexico-semantic variant of a word, microframe (reference category are defined at the beginning of the article. The article also describes the classification of various semantic structures of terms developed by Prof. Belyayevskaya, based on an analysis of the cognitive foundations of the typology of semantic structures as well as on the classification of meanings. They are homogeneous semantic structures, with different lexico-semantic variants of a polysemous word representing different aspects of one microframe; these structures include monosemous terms, polysemous terms with a homogeneous semantic structure, and terms with the intermediate type of lexemes. Heterogeneous semantic structures are semantic structures, with a lexico-semantic variant of a word representing two or more reference categories rather than one category; these structures are considered to be “classical” polysemy. Two types of such structures are introduced in the article, with examples of the actualization of their lexical meaning in speech being analysed (there were used examples from the British and Russian National corpora; official legal documents and

  13. Long-term succession of structure and diversity of a biofilm formed in a model drinking water distribution system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martiny, A.C.; Jørgensen, T.M.; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jørgen

    2003-01-01

    from an initial attachment of single cells through the formation of independent microcolonies reaching 30 mum in thickness to a final looser structure with an average thickness of 14.1 mum and covering 76% of the surface. An analysis of the community composition by use of terminal restriction fragment...

  14. Host resistance, population structure and the long-term persistence of bubonic plague: contributions of a modelling approach in the Malagasy focus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fanny Gascuel

    Full Text Available Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar.

  15. Host Resistance, Population Structure and the Long-Term Persistence of Bubonic Plague: Contributions of a Modelling Approach in the Malagasy Focus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gascuel, Fanny; Choisy, Marc; Duplantier, Jean-Marc; Débarre, Florence; Brouat, Carine

    2013-01-01

    Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i) endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii) in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii) the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar. PMID:23675291

  16. Murine model for Fusarium oxysporum invasive fusariosis reveals organ-specific structures for dissemination and long-term persistence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katja Schäfer

    Full Text Available The soil-borne plant pathogen Fusarium oxysporum causes life-threatening invasive fusariosis in immunocompromised individuals. The mechanism of infection in mammalian hosts is largely unknown. In the present study we show that the symptoms of disseminated fusariosis caused by F. oxysporum in immunosuppressed mice are remarkably similar to those reported in humans. Distinct fungal structures were observed inside the host, depending on the infected organ. Invasive hyphae developed in the heart and kidney, causing massive colonization of the organs. By contrast, chlamydospore-like survival structures were found in lung, spleen and liver. Systemically infected mice also developed skin and eye infections, as well as thrombosis and necrosis in the tail. We further show that F. oxysporum can disseminate and persist in the organs of immunocompetent animals, and that these latent infections can lead to lethal systemic fusariosis if the host is later subjected to immunosuppressive treatment.

  17. Model documentation report: Short-Term Hydroelectric Generation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Short- Term Hydroelectric Generation Model (STHGM), describe its basic approach, and to provide details on the model structure. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with the Energy Information Administration's (AYE) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, Section 57.b.2). The STHGM performs a short-term (18 to 27- month) forecast of hydroelectric generation in the United States using an autoregressive integrated moving average (UREMIA) time series model with precipitation as an explanatory variable. The model results are used as input for the short-term Energy Outlook

  18. Term Structure Analysis with Big Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller; Christensen, Jens H.E.; Rudebusch, Glenn D.

    Analysis of the term structure of interest rates almost always takes a two-step approach. First, actual bond prices are summarized by interpolated synthetic zero-coupon yields, and second, a small set of these yields are used as the source data for further empirical examination. In contrast, we...

  19. Induction of chronic kidney failure in a long-term peritoneal exposure model in the rat: effects on functional and structural peritoneal alterations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrtovsnik, François; Coester, Annemieke M.; Lopes-Barreto, Deirisa; de Waart, Dirk R.; van der Wal, Allard C.; Struijk, Dirk G.; Krediet, Raymond T.; Zweers, Machteld M.

    2010-01-01

    A long-term peritoneal exposure model has been developed in Wistar rats. Chronic daily exposure to 3.86% glucose based, lactate buffered, conventional dialysis solutions is possible for up to 20 weeks and induces morphological abnormalities similar to those in long-term peritoneal dialysis (PD)

  20. Bond portfolio's duration and investment term-structure management problem

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Daobai

    2006-01-01

    In the considered bond market, there are N zero-coupon bonds transacted continuously, which will mature at equally spaced dates. A duration of bond portfolios under stochastic interest rate model is introduced, which provides a measurement for the interest rate risk. Then we consider an optimal bond investment term-structure management problem using this duration as a performance index, and with the short-term interest rate process satisfying some stochastic differential ...

  1. Metallic glasses: structural models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nassif, E.

    1984-01-01

    The aim of this work is to give a summary of the attempts made up to the present in order to discribe by structural models the atomic arrangement in metallic glasses, showing also why the structure factors and atomic distribution functions cannot be always experimentally determined with a reasonable accuracy. (M.W.O.) [pt

  2. Multi-period MINLP model for optimising operation and structural changes to CHP plants in district heating networks with long-term thermal storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tveit, Tor-Martin; Savola, Tuula; Gebremedhin, Alemayehu; Fogelholm, Carl-Johan

    2009-01-01

    By using thermal storages it is possible to decouple the generation of power and heat, and it can also lead to an reduction in investments, as the storage can be used to cover the peak load periods. This work presents a MINLP model that can be used for analysing new investments and the long-term operation of CHP plants in a district heating network with long-term thermal storage. The model presented in this work includes the non-linear off-design behaviour of the CHP plants as well as a generic mathematical model of the thermal storage, without the need to fix temperatures and pressure. The model is formulated in such a way that it is suitable for deterministic MINLP solvers. The model is non-convex, and subsequently global optimality cannot be guaranteed with local solvers. In order to reduce the chance of obtaining a poor local optimum compared to the global optimum, the model should be solved many times with the initial values varying randomly. It is possible to extract a lot of results from the model, for instance total annual profit, the optimal selection of process options, mass flow through the plant, and generated power from each plant. The formulation of the model makes it suitable for deterministic MINLP solvers

  3. Structural Equation Model Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandmaier, Andreas M.; von Oertzen, Timo; McArdle, John J.; Lindenberger, Ulman

    2013-01-01

    In the behavioral and social sciences, structural equation models (SEMs) have become widely accepted as a modeling tool for the relation between latent and observed variables. SEMs can be seen as a unification of several multivariate analysis techniques. SEM Trees combine the strengths of SEMs and the decision tree paradigm by building tree…

  4. ECONGAS - model structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-31

    This report documents a numerical simulation model of the natural gas market in Germany, France, the Netherlands and Belgium. It is a part of a project called ``Internationalization and structural change in the gas market`` aiming to enhance the understanding of the factors behind the current and upcoming changes in the European gas market, especially the downstream part of the gas chain. The model takes European border prices of gas as given, adds transmission and distribution cost and profit margins as well as gas taxes to calculate gas prices. The model includes demand sub-models for households, chemical industry, other industry, the commercial sector and electricity generation. Demand responses to price changes are assumed to take time, and the long run effects are significantly larger than the short run effects. For the household sector and the electricity sector, the dynamics are modeled by distinguishing between energy use in the old and new capital stock. In addition to prices and the activity level (GDP), the model includes the extension of the gas network as a potentially important variable in explaining the development of gas demand. The properties of numerical simulation models are often described by dynamic multipliers, which describe the behaviour of important variables when key explanatory variables are changed. At the end, the report shows the results of a model experiment where the costs in transmission and distribution were reduced. 6 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab.

  5. ECONGAS - model structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    This report documents a numerical simulation model of the natural gas market in Germany, France, the Netherlands and Belgium. It is a part of a project called ''Internationalization and structural change in the gas market'' aiming to enhance the understanding of the factors behind the current and upcoming changes in the European gas market, especially the downstream part of the gas chain. The model takes European border prices of gas as given, adds transmission and distribution cost and profit margins as well as gas taxes to calculate gas prices. The model includes demand sub-models for households, chemical industry, other industry, the commercial sector and electricity generation. Demand responses to price changes are assumed to take time, and the long run effects are significantly larger than the short run effects. For the household sector and the electricity sector, the dynamics are modeled by distinguishing between energy use in the old and new capital stock. In addition to prices and the activity level (GDP), the model includes the extension of the gas network as a potentially important variable in explaining the development of gas demand. The properties of numerical simulation models are often described by dynamic multipliers, which describe the behaviour of important variables when key explanatory variables are changed. At the end, the report shows the results of a model experiment where the costs in transmission and distribution were reduced. 6 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab

  6. Structure and modeling of turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novikov, E.A.

    1995-01-01

    The open-quotes vortex stringsclose quotes scale l s ∼ LRe -3/10 (L-external scale, Re - Reynolds number) is suggested as a grid scale for the large-eddy simulation. Various aspects of the structure of turbulence and subgrid modeling are described in terms of conditional averaging, Markov processes with dependent increments and infinitely divisible distributions. The major request from the energy, naval, aerospace and environmental engineering communities to the theory of turbulence is to reduce the enormous number of degrees of freedom in turbulent flows to a level manageable by computer simulations. The vast majority of these degrees of freedom is in the small-scale motion. The study of the structure of turbulence provides a basis for subgrid-scale (SGS) models, which are necessary for the large-eddy simulations (LES)

  7. Using marginal structural measurement-error models to estimate the long-term effect of antiretroviral therapy on incident AIDS or death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R; Jacobson, Lisa P; Tien, Phyllis C; Kingsley, Lawrence; Chmiel, Joan S; Anastos, Kathryn

    2010-01-01

    To estimate the net effect of imperfectly measured highly active antiretroviral therapy on incident acquired immunodeficiency syndrome or death, the authors combined inverse probability-of-treatment-and-censoring weighted estimation of a marginal structural Cox model with regression-calibration methods. Between 1995 and 2007, 950 human immunodeficiency virus-positive men and women were followed in 2 US cohort studies. During 4,054 person-years, 374 initiated highly active antiretroviral therapy, 211 developed acquired immunodeficiency syndrome or died, and 173 dropped out. Accounting for measured confounders and determinants of dropout, the weighted hazard ratio for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome or death comparing use of highly active antiretroviral therapy in the prior 2 years with no therapy was 0.36 (95% confidence limits: 0.21, 0.61). This association was relatively constant over follow-up (P = 0.19) and stronger than crude or adjusted hazard ratios of 0.75 and 0.95, respectively. Accounting for measurement error in reported exposure using external validation data on 331 men and women provided a hazard ratio of 0.17, with bias shifted from the hazard ratio to the estimate of precision as seen by the 2.5-fold wider confidence limits (95% confidence limits: 0.06, 0.43). Marginal structural measurement-error models can simultaneously account for 3 major sources of bias in epidemiologic research: validated exposure measurement error, measured selection bias, and measured time-fixed and time-varying confounding.

  8. Baby Skyrme models without a potential term

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashcroft, Jennifer; Haberichter, Mareike; Krusch, Steffen

    2015-05-01

    We develop a one-parameter family of static baby Skyrme models that do not require a potential term to admit topological solitons. This is a novel property as the standard baby Skyrme model must contain a potential term in order to have stable soliton solutions, though the Skyrme model does not require this. Our new models satisfy an energy bound that is linear in terms of the topological charge and can be saturated in an extreme limit. They also satisfy a virial theorem that is shared by the Skyrme model. We calculate the solitons of our new models numerically and observe that their form depends significantly on the choice of parameter. In one extreme, we find compactons while at the other there is a scale invariant model in which solitons can be obtained exactly as solutions to a Bogomolny equation. We provide an initial investigation into these solitons and compare them with the baby Skyrmions of other models.

  9. Track structure in biological models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, S B

    1986-01-01

    High-energy heavy ions in the galactic cosmic radiation (HZE particles) may pose a special risk during long term manned space flights outside the sheltering confines of the earth's geomagnetic field. These particles are highly ionizing, and they and their nuclear secondaries can penetrate many centimeters of body tissue. The three dimensional patterns of ionizations they create as they lose energy are referred to as their track structure. Several models of biological action on mammalian cells attempt to treat track structure or related quantities in their formulation. The methods by which they do this are reviewed. The proximity function is introduced in connection with the theory of Dual Radiation Action (DRA). The ion-gamma kill (IGK) model introduces the radial energy-density distribution, which is a smooth function characterizing both the magnitude and extension of a charged particle track. The lethal, potentially lethal (LPL) model introduces lambda, the mean distance between relevant ion clusters or biochemical species along the track. Since very localized energy depositions (within approximately 10 nm) are emphasized, the proximity function as defined in the DRA model is not of utility in characterizing track structure in the LPL formulation.

  10. Structural system identification: Structural dynamics model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Red-Horse, J.R.

    1997-04-01

    Structural system identification is concerned with the development of systematic procedures and tools for developing predictive analytical models based on a physical structure`s dynamic response characteristics. It is a multidisciplinary process that involves the ability (1) to define high fidelity physics-based analysis models, (2) to acquire accurate test-derived information for physical specimens using diagnostic experiments, (3) to validate the numerical simulation model by reconciling differences that inevitably exist between the analysis model and the experimental data, and (4) to quantify uncertainties in the final system models and subsequent numerical simulations. The goal of this project was to develop structural system identification techniques and software suitable for both research and production applications in code and model validation.

  11. Virtual Models of Long-Term Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phenice, Lillian A.; Griffore, Robert J.

    2012-01-01

    Nursing homes, assisted living facilities and home-care organizations, use web sites to describe their services to potential consumers. This virtual ethnographic study developed models representing how potential consumers may understand this information using data from web sites of 69 long-term-care providers. The content of long-term-care web…

  12. Stability patterns for a size-structured population model and its stage-structured counterpart

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Lai; Pedersen, Michael; Lin, Zhigui

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we compare a general size-structured population model, where a size-structured consumer feeds upon an unstructured resource, to its simplified stage-structured counterpart in terms of equilibrium stability. Stability of the size-structured model is understood in terms of an equivale...... to the population level....

  13. Structural equation modeling methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Jichuan

    2012-01-01

    A reference guide for applications of SEM using Mplus Structural Equation Modeling: Applications Using Mplus is intended as both a teaching resource and a reference guide. Written in non-mathematical terms, this book focuses on the conceptual and practical aspects of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Basic concepts and examples of various SEM models are demonstrated along with recently developed advanced methods, such as mixture modeling and model-based power analysis and sample size estimate for SEM. The statistical modeling program, Mplus, is also featured and provides researchers with a

  14. Future Contract Selection by Term Structure Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasco Grossmann

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In futures markets, a single asset is generally represented by several contracts with different maturities. The selection of specific contracts is an inevitable task that also creates new opportunities, especially in terms of speculative trading. Evaluating immediate and upcoming trading costs for all considered contracts might lead to a significantly improved performance. Among that, even possible market inefficiencies might be taken into consideration. This research introduces and evaluates a new algorithm for the contract selection. The results are benchmarked and compared with established methods using a Monte Carlo simulation on different commodity and index futures.

  15. Discrete choice models with multiplicative error terms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Bierlaire, Michel

    2009-01-01

    The conditional indirect utility of many random utility maximization (RUM) discrete choice models is specified as a sum of an index V depending on observables and an independent random term ε. In general, the universe of RUM consistent models is much larger, even fixing some specification of V due...

  16. The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US

    OpenAIRE

    Gutiérrez Huerta, María José; Vázquez Pérez, Jesús

    2002-01-01

    Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure m...

  17. PRODUCT STRUCTURE DIGITAL MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.M. Sineglazov

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available  Research results of representation of product structure made by means of CADDS5 computer-aided design (CAD system, Product Data Management Optegra (PDM system and Product Life Cycle Management Wind-chill system (PLM, are examined in this work. Analysis of structure component development and its storage in various systems is carried out. Algorithms of structure transformation required for correct representation of the structure are considered. Management analysis of electronic mockup presentation of the product structure is carried out for Windchill system.

  18. Murine model of long term obstructive jaundice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoki, Hiroaki; Aoki, Masayo; Yang, Jing; Katsuta, Eriko; Mukhopadhyay, Partha; Ramanathan, Rajesh; Woelfel, Ingrid A.; Wang, Xuan; Spiegel, Sarah; Zhou, Huiping; Takabe, Kazuaki

    2016-01-01

    Background With the recent emergence of conjugated bile acids as signaling molecules in cancer, a murine model of obstructive jaundice by cholestasis with long-term survival is in need. Here, we investigated the characteristics of 3 murine models of obstructive jaundice. Methods C57BL/6J mice were used for total ligation of the common bile duct (tCL), partial common bile duct ligation (pCL), and ligation of left and median hepatic bile duct with gallbladder removal (LMHL) models. Survival was assessed by Kaplan-Meier method. Fibrotic change was determined by Masson-Trichrome staining and Collagen expression. Results 70% (7/10) of tCL mice died by Day 7, whereas majority 67% (10/15) of pCL mice survived with loss of jaundice. 19% (3/16) of LMHL mice died; however, jaundice continued beyond Day 14, with survival of more than a month. Compensatory enlargement of the right lobe was observed in both pCL and LMHL models. The pCL model demonstrated acute inflammation due to obstructive jaundice 3 days after ligation but jaundice rapidly decreased by Day 7. The LHML group developed portal hypertension as well as severe fibrosis by Day 14 in addition to prolonged jaundice. Conclusion The standard tCL model is too unstable with high mortality for long-term studies. pCL may be an appropriate model for acute inflammation with obstructive jaundice but long term survivors are no longer jaundiced. The LHML model was identified to be the most feasible model to study the effect of long-term obstructive jaundice. PMID:27916350

  19. Integrated materials–structural models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stang, Henrik; Geiker, Mette Rica

    2008-01-01

    , repair works and strengthening methods for structures. A very significant part of the infrastructure consists of reinforced concrete structures. Even though reinforced concrete structures typically are very competitive, certain concrete structures suffer from various types of degradation. A framework...... should define a framework in which materials research results eventually should fit in and on the other side the materials research should define needs and capabilities in structural modelling. Integrated materials-structural models of a general nature are almost non-existent in the field of cement based...

  20. Modeling Structural Brain Connectivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ambrosen, Karen Marie Sandø

    The human brain consists of a gigantic complex network of interconnected neurons. Together all these connections determine who we are, how we react and how we interpret the world. Knowledge about how the brain is connected can further our understanding of the brain’s structural organization, help...... improve diagnosis, and potentially allow better treatment of a wide range of neurological disorders. Tractography based on diffusion magnetic resonance imaging is a unique tool to estimate this “structural connectivity” of the brain non-invasively and in vivo. During the last decade, brain connectivity...... has increasingly been analyzed using graph theoretic measures adopted from network science and this characterization of the brain’s structural connectivity has been shown to be useful for the classification of populations, such as healthy and diseased subjects. The structural connectivity of the brain...

  1. Oscillating water column structural model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Copeland, Guild [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bull, Diana L [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jepsen, Richard Alan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gordon, Margaret Ellen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-09-01

    An oscillating water column (OWC) wave energy converter is a structure with an opening to the ocean below the free surface, i.e. a structure with a moonpool. Two structural models for a non-axisymmetric terminator design OWC, the Backward Bent Duct Buoy (BBDB) are discussed in this report. The results of this structural model design study are intended to inform experiments and modeling underway in support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) initiated Reference Model Project (RMP). A detailed design developed by Re Vision Consulting used stiffeners and girders to stabilize the structure against the hydrostatic loads experienced by a BBDB device. Additional support plates were added to this structure to account for loads arising from the mooring line attachment points. A simplified structure was designed in a modular fashion. This simplified design allows easy alterations to the buoyancy chambers and uncomplicated analysis of resulting changes in buoyancy.

  2. Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsina, Fernando; Garces, Francisco; Haubrich, H.-J.

    2006-01-01

    In the last decade, many countries have restructured their electricity industries by introducing competition in their power generation sectors. Although some restructuring has been regarded as successful, the short experience accumulated with liberalized power markets does not allow making any founded assertion about their long-term behavior. Long-term prices and long-term supply reliability are now center of interest. This concerns firms considering investments in generation capacity and regulatory authorities interested in assuring the long-term supply adequacy and the stability of power markets. In order to gain significant insight into the long-term behavior of liberalized power markets, in this paper, a simulation model based on system dynamics is proposed and the underlying mathematical formulations extensively discussed. Unlike classical market models based on the assumption that market outcomes replicate the results of a centrally made optimization, the approach presented here focuses on replicating the system structure of power markets and the logic of relationships among system components in order to derive its dynamical response. The simulations suggest that there might be serious problems to adjust early enough the generation capacity necessary to maintain stable reserve margins, and consequently, stable long-term price levels. Because of feedback loops embedded in the structure of power markets and the existence of some time lags, the long-term market development might exhibit a quite volatile behavior. By varying some exogenous inputs, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the influence of these factors on the long-run market dynamics

  3. The structure of the 168Er nucleus and the 166Er(t,p) 168 Er reaction in terms of the sdg interacting boson model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akiyama, Y.; Heyde, K.; Arima, A.; Yoshinaga, N.

    1986-05-01

    Extending the interacting boson model by incorporating besides s and d, also the g-boson, we can describe the population of positive parity states of 168Er in the 166Er(t,P) 168Er reaction rather well. In particular, the excitation of I,Kπi = 4,3 +1; 2,2 +2; 0,0 +3 and 0,0 +4 states is much improved over the sd-IBM approach.

  4. The term structure of credit spreads in project finance

    OpenAIRE

    Marco Sorge; Blaise Gadanecz

    2004-01-01

    This paper finds that the term structure of credit spreads in project finance is hump-shaped. This contrasts with other types of debt, where credit risk is shown instead to increase monotonically with maturity ceteris paribus. We emphasize a number of peculiar features of project finance structures that might underlie this finding, such as high leverage decreasing over time, long-term political risk guarantees and the sequential resolution of uncertainty along project advancement stages. Our ...

  5. Structure of the /sup 168/Er nucleus and the /sup 166/Er(t,p)/sup 168/Er reaction in terms of the sdg interacting boson model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akiyama, Y.; Heyde, K.; Arima, A.; Yoshinaga, N.

    1986-05-29

    Extending the interacting boson model by incorporating besides s and d, also the g-boson, we can describe the population of positive parity states of /sup 168/Er in the /sup 166/Er(t,P)/sup 168/Er reaction rather well. In particular, the excitation of I,Ksub(i)sup(..pi..) = 4,3/sub 1//sup +/; 2,2/sub 2//sup +/; 0,0/sub 3//sup +/ and 0,0/sub 4//sup +/ states is much improved over the sd-IBM appraoch.

  6. Ukraine National Energy Current State and Modelling its Long-Term Development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shulzhenko, S.

    2016-01-01

    Structure of Ukrainian energy sector, its current challenges, drivers of its development and possible long-term pathways, and methodological approaches and methods of mathematical modelling of long-term national energy development.(author).

  7. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  8. Term Structure Examination of Indonesian Money Market: Some Efficiency Issue

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anggoro Budi Nugroho

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines efficiency of Indonesian term structure as imposed by the country’s central bank. The rate, widely understood as the Bank Indonesia (BI Rate varying from 30-day, 60-day, and 180-day, usually stated as the plain-vanilla cost of capital of interbank debt financing depending on their time length. In general, this rate will consequently impact various other sorts of interest rates in the country’s debt market as a whole. When dealing with market efficiency, statistical inference shows that short-term BI Rate’s is not the best predictor of its long-term one due to some uncertain asymmetric information. This finding may lead to further adjustment in risk management strategy for hedging with interest rate. Keywords: term structure, risk premia, expectation hypothesis (EH, market efficiency, cointegration, volatility spillover, expansionary monetary policy

  9. Time series modelling of overflow structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carstensen, J.; Harremoës, P.

    1997-01-01

    The dynamics of a storage pipe is examined using a grey-box model based on on-line measured data. The grey-box modelling approach uses a combination of physically-based and empirical terms in the model formulation. The model provides an on-line state estimate of the overflows, pumping capacities...... and available storage capacity in the pipe as well as predictions of future states. A linear overflow relation is found, differing significantly from the traditional modelling approach. This is due to complicated overflow structures in a hydraulic sense where the overflow is governed by inertia from the inflow...... to the overflow structures. The capacity of a pump draining the storage pipe has been estimated for two rain events, revealing that the pump was malfunctioning during the first rain event. The grey-box modelling approach is applicable for automated on-line surveillance and control. (C) 1997 IAWQ. Published...

  10. Structural dynamic modifications via models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The study shows that as many as half of the matrix ... the dynamicist's analytical modelling skill which would appear both in the numerator as. Figure 2. ..... Brandon J A 1990 Strategies for structural dynamic modification (New York: John Wiley).

  11. Structure-Based Turbulence Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Reynolds, W

    2000-01-01

    .... Maire carried out this work as part of his Phi) research. During the award period we began to explore ways to simplify the structure-based modeling so that it could be used in repetitive engineering calculations...

  12. Probabilistic modeling of timber structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köhler, Jochen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, Michael Havbro

    2007-01-01

    The present paper contains a proposal for the probabilistic modeling of timber material properties. It is produced in the context of the Probabilistic Model Code (PMC) of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) [Joint Committee of Structural Safety. Probabilistic Model Code, Internet...... Publication: www.jcss.ethz.ch; 2001] and of the COST action E24 ‘Reliability of Timber Structures' [COST Action E 24, Reliability of timber structures. Several meetings and Publications, Internet Publication: http://www.km.fgg.uni-lj.si/coste24/coste24.htm; 2005]. The present proposal is based on discussions...... and comments from participants of the COST E24 action and the members of the JCSS. The paper contains a description of the basic reference properties for timber strength parameters and ultimate limit state equations for timber components. The recommended probabilistic model for these basic properties...

  13. Temporal structures in shell models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Okkels, F.

    2001-01-01

    The intermittent dynamics of the turbulent Gledzer, Ohkitani, and Yamada shell-model is completely characterized by a single type of burstlike structure, which moves through the shells like a front. This temporal structure is described by the dynamics of the instantaneous configuration of the shell...

  14. Structuring very large domain models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Störrle, Harald

    2010-01-01

    View/Viewpoint approaches like IEEE 1471-2000, or Kruchten's 4+1-view model are used to structure software architectures at a high level of granularity. While research has focused on architectural languages and with consistency between multiple views, practical questions such as the structuring a...

  15. Fatgraph models of RNA structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang Fenix

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this review paper we discuss fatgraphs as a conceptual framework for RNA structures. We discuss various notions of coarse-grained RNA structures and relate them to fatgraphs.We motivate and discuss the main intuition behind the fatgraph model and showcase its applicability to canonical as well as noncanonical base pairs. Recent discoveries regarding novel recursions of pseudoknotted (pk configurations as well as their translation into context-free grammars for pk-structures are discussed. This is shown to allow for extending the concept of partition functions of sequences w.r.t. a fixed structure having non-crossing arcs to pk-structures. We discuss minimum free energy folding of pk-structures and combine these above results outlining how to obtain an inverse folding algorithm for PK structures.

  16. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  17. The term structure of interest rates and inflation forecast targeting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Schaling

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the implications of the expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates for the implementation of inflation targeting. We show that the responsiveness of the central bank’s instrument to the underlying state of the economy is increasing in the duration of the long-term bond.  On the other hand, an increase in duration will make long-term inflationary expectations - and therefore also the long-term nominal interest rate - less responsive to the state of the economy. The extent to which the central bank is concerned with output stabilisation will exert a moderating influence on the central bank’s response to leading indicators of future inflation. However, the effect of an increase in this parameter on the long-term nominal interest rate turns out to be ambiguous. Next, we show that both the sensitivity of the nominal term spread to economic fundamentals and the extent to which the spread predicts future output, are increasing in the duration of the long bond and the degree of structural output persistence. However, if the central bank becomes relatively less concerned about inflation stabilisation the term spread will be less successful in predicting real economic activity.

  18. Cognitive structure of emotion terms in Indonesia and The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fontaine, R.J.; Poortinga, Y.H.; Setiadi, B.; Markam, S.S.

    2002-01-01

    We investigated the cognitive structure of emotions in Indonesia and The Netherlands in a series of three studies. Sets of 120 emotion terms were selected based on local ratings of prototypicality for "emotion". With similarity sortings a three-dimensional (evaluation, arousal, dominance) and a

  19. The joint estimation of term structures and credit spreads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houweling, P.; Hoek, J.; Kleibergen, F.R.

    1999-01-01

    We present a new framework for the joint estimation of the default-free government term structure and corporate credit spread curves. By using a data set of liquid, German mark denominated bonds, we show that this yields more realistic spreads than traditionally obtained spread curves that result

  20. Handbook of structural equation modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Hoyle, Rick H

    2012-01-01

    The first comprehensive structural equation modeling (SEM) handbook, this accessible volume presents both the mechanics of SEM and specific SEM strategies and applications. The editor, contributors, and editorial advisory board are leading methodologists who have organized the book to move from simpler material to more statistically complex modeling approaches. Sections cover the foundations of SEM; statistical underpinnings, from assumptions to model modifications; steps in implementation, from data preparation through writing the SEM report; and basic and advanced applications, inclu

  1. Source term modelling parameters for Project-90

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, W.; Smith, G.; Worgan, K.; Hodgkinson, D.; Andersson, K.

    1992-04-01

    This document summarises the input parameters for the source term modelling within Project-90. In the first place, the parameters relate to the CALIBRE near-field code which was developed for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate's (SKI) Project-90 reference repository safety assessment exercise. An attempt has been made to give best estimate values and, where appropriate, a range which is related to variations around base cases. It should be noted that the data sets contain amendments to those considered by KBS-3. In particular, a completely new set of inventory data has been incorporated. The information given here does not constitute a complete set of parameter values for all parts of the CALIBRE code. Rather, it gives the key parameter values which are used in the constituent models within CALIBRE and the associated studies. For example, the inventory data acts as an input to the calculation of the oxidant production rates, which influence the generation of a redox front. The same data is also an initial value data set for the radionuclide migration component of CALIBRE. Similarly, the geometrical parameters of the near-field are common to both sub-models. The principal common parameters are gathered here for ease of reference and avoidance of unnecessary duplication and transcription errors. (au)

  2. On the Information in the Interest Rate Term Structure and Option Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, F.; Driessen, J.; Pelsser, A.

    2004-01-01

    We examine whether the information in cap and swaption prices is consistent with realized movements of the interest rate term structure. To extract an option-implied interest rate covariance matrix from cap and swaption prices, we use Libor market models as a modelling framework. We propose a

  3. Probabilistic Modeling of Timber Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köhler, J.D.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, Michael Havbro

    2005-01-01

    The present paper contains a proposal for the probabilistic modeling of timber material properties. It is produced in the context of the Probabilistic Model Code (PMC) of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) and of the COST action E24 'Reliability of Timber Structures'. The present...... proposal is based on discussions and comments from participants of the COST E24 action and the members of the JCSS. The paper contains a description of the basic reference properties for timber strength parameters and ultimate limit state equations for components and connections. The recommended...

  4. Multi-symplectic Birkhoffian structure for PDEs with dissipation terms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Su Hongling; Qin Mengzhao; Wang Yushun; Scherer, Rudolf

    2010-01-01

    A generalization of the multi-symplectic form for Hamiltonian systems to self-adjoint systems with dissipation terms is studied. These systems can be expressed as multi-symplectic Birkhoffian equations, which leads to a natural definition of Birkhoffian multi-symplectic structure. The concept of Birkhoffian multi-symplectic integrators for Birkhoffian PDEs is investigated. The Birkhoffian multi-symplectic structure is constructed by the continuous variational principle, and the Birkhoffian multi-symplectic integrator by the discrete variational principle. As an example, two Birkhoffian multi-symplectic integrators for the equation describing a linear damped string are given.

  5. The Structure and Content of Long-Term and Short-Term Mate Preferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter K. Jonason

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This study addresses two limitations in the mate preferences literature. First, research all-too-often relies on single-item assessments of mate preferences precluding more advanced statistical techniques like factor analysis. Second, when factor analysis could be done, it exclusively has done for long-term mate preferences, at the exclusion of short-term mate preferences. In this study (N = 401, we subjected 20 items designed to measure short- and long-term mate preferences to both principle components (n = 200 and confirmatory factor analysis (n = 201. In the long-term context, we replicated previous findings that there are three different categories of preferences: physical attractiveness, interpersonal warmth, and social status. In the short-term context, physical attractiveness occupied two parts of the structure, social status dropped out, and interpersonal warmth remained. Across short- and long-term contexts, there were slight changes in what defined the shared dimensions (i.e., physical attractiveness and interpersonal warmth, suggesting prior work that applies the same inventory to each context might be flawed. We also replicated sex differences and similarities in mate preferences and correlates with sociosexuality and mate value. We adopt an evolutionary paradigm to understand our results.

  6. Modeling Fission Product Sorption in Graphite Structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szlufarska, Izabela; Morgan, Dane; Allen, Todd

    2013-01-01

    The goal of this project is to determine changes in adsorption and desorption of fission products to/from nuclear-grade graphite in response to a changing chemical environment. First, the project team will employ principle calculations and thermodynamic analysis to predict stability of fission products on graphite in the presence of structural defects commonly observed in very high-temperature reactor (VHTR) graphites. Desorption rates will be determined as a function of partial pressure of oxygen and iodine, relative humidity, and temperature. They will then carry out experimental characterization to determine the statistical distribution of structural features. This structural information will yield distributions of binding sites to be used as an input for a sorption model. Sorption isotherms calculated under this project will contribute to understanding of the physical bases of the source terms that are used in higher-level codes that model fission product transport and retention in graphite. The project will include the following tasks: Perform structural characterization of the VHTR graphite to determine crystallographic phases, defect structures and their distribution, volume fraction of coke, and amount of sp2 versus sp3 bonding. This information will be used as guidance for ab initio modeling and as input for sorptivity models; Perform ab initio calculations of binding energies to determine stability of fission products on the different sorption sites present in nuclear graphite microstructures. The project will use density functional theory (DFT) methods to calculate binding energies in vacuum and in oxidizing environments. The team will also calculate stability of iodine complexes with fission products on graphite sorption sites; Model graphite sorption isotherms to quantify concentration of fission products in graphite. The binding energies will be combined with a Langmuir isotherm statistical model to predict the sorbed concentration of fission products

  7. A model for adatom structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kappus, W.

    1981-06-01

    A model concerning adatom structures is proposed. Attractive nearest neighbour interactions, which may be of electronic nature lead to 2-dimensional condensation. Every pair bond causes and elastic dipole. The elastic dipoles interact via substrate strains with an anisotropic s -3 power law. Different types of adatoms or sites are permitted and many-body effects result, from the assumptions. Electric dipole interactions of adatoms are included for comparison. The model is applied to the W(110) surface and compared with superstructures experimentally found in the W(110)-0 system. It is found that there is still lack for an additional next-nearest neighbour interaction.

  8. The term structure of interest rates and macroeconomic factors: Evidence from Indian financial market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Hassan Shareef

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The term structure of interest rate per-se is not impeccable for explaining the behavior of the future economic conditions and hence incorporating macro factors in the term structure model is more tractable. The study uses monthly data of macro factors for a period of eighteen years from April 1998 to May 2016. Using structural vector auto regression estimates, Granger causality/block exogeneity wald test along with impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition analysis the study tests the proportion of term structure attributable to macro-economic shocks. The findings of the study show that short term rates are mainly influenced by the fiscal deficit present in emerging economies while long term rates get affected when market participants revise their expectation on yields. In addition, the output growth of the country is mainly depended on long and short rates and exchange rate fluctuations have a significant role in the fiscal deficit of the country. Keywords: Term structure of interest rates, Inflation, Output growth, NEER, Monetary policy rate, JEL Classification: E43, E31, E2

  9. Correlation Structures of Correlated Binomial Models and Implied Default Distribution

    OpenAIRE

    S. Mori; K. Kitsukawa; M. Hisakado

    2006-01-01

    We show how to analyze and interpret the correlation structures, the conditional expectation values and correlation coefficients of exchangeable Bernoulli random variables. We study implied default distributions for the iTraxx-CJ tranches and some popular probabilistic models, including the Gaussian copula model, Beta binomial distribution model and long-range Ising model. We interpret the differences in their profiles in terms of the correlation structures. The implied default distribution h...

  10. Family Structure and Long-Term Care Insurance Purchase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Houtven, Courtney Harold; Coe, Norma B.; Konetzka, R. Tamara

    2015-01-01

    While it has long been assumed that family structure and potential sources of informal care play a large role in the purchase decisions for long-term care insurance (LTCI), current empirical evidence is inconclusive. Our study examines the relationship between family structure and LTCI purchase and addresses several major limitations of the prior literature by using a long panel of data and considering modern family relationships, such as presence of stepchildren. We find that family structure characteristics from one’s own generation, particularly about one’s spouse, are associated with purchase, but that few family structure attributes from the younger generation have an influence. Family factors that may indicate future caregiver supply are negatively associated with purchase: having a coresidential child, signaling close proximity, and having a currently working spouse, signaling a healthy and able spouse, that LTC planning has not occurred yet, or that there is less need for asset protection afforded by LTCI. Dynamic factors, such as increasing wealth or turning 65, are associated with higher likelihood of LTCI purchase. PMID:25760583

  11. Behavioural Models of Motor Control and Short-Term Memory

    OpenAIRE

    Imanaka, Kuniyasu; Funase, Kozo; Yamauchi, Masaki

    1995-01-01

    We examined in this review article the behavioural and conceptual models of motor control and short-term memory which have intensively been investigated since the 1970s. First, we reviewed both the dual-storage model of short-term memory in which movement information is stored and a typical model of motor control which emphasizes the importance of efferent factors. We then examined two models of preselection effects: a cognitive model and a cognitive/ efferent model. Following this we reviewe...

  12. Source Term Model for Fine Particle Resuspension from Indoor Surfaces

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kim, Yoojeong; Gidwani, Ashok; Sippola, Mark; Sohn, Chang W

    2008-01-01

    This Phase I effort developed a source term model for particle resuspension from indoor surfaces to be used as a source term boundary condition for CFD simulation of particle transport and dispersion in a building...

  13. Quantitative structure - mesothelioma potency model ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cancer potencies of mineral and synthetic elongated particle (EP) mixtures, including asbestos fibers, are influenced by changes in fiber dose composition, bioavailability, and biodurability in combination with relevant cytotoxic dose-response relationships. A unique and comprehensive rat intra-pleural (IP) dose characterization data set with a wide variety of EP size, shape, crystallographic, chemical, and bio-durability properties facilitated extensive statistical analyses of 50 rat IP exposure test results for evaluation of alternative dose pleural mesothelioma response models. Utilizing logistic regression, maximum likelihood evaluations of thousands of alternative dose metrics based on hundreds of individual EP dimensional variations within each test sample, four major findings emerged: (1) data for simulations of short-term EP dose changes in vivo (mild acid leaching) provide superior predictions of tumor incidence compared to non-acid leached data; (2) sum of the EP surface areas (ÓSA) from these mildly acid-leached samples provides the optimum holistic dose response model; (3) progressive removal of dose associated with very short and/or thin EPs significantly degrades resultant ÓEP or ÓSA dose-based predictive model fits, as judged by Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC); and (4) alternative, biologically plausible model adjustments provide evidence for reduced potency of EPs with length/width (aspect) ratios 80 µm. Regar

  14. Generalized latent variable modeling multilevel, longitudinal, and structural equation models

    CERN Document Server

    Skrondal, Anders; Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia

    2004-01-01

    This book unifies and extends latent variable models, including multilevel or generalized linear mixed models, longitudinal or panel models, item response or factor models, latent class or finite mixture models, and structural equation models.

  15. Kinematic models of extensional structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groshong, R.H. Jr.

    1990-01-01

    This paper discusses kinematic models that can relate faults of different types and different positions within a single dynamic system and thereby offer the potential to explain the disparate seismic activity characteristic of extensional terrains. The major styles are full grabens, half grabens, domino blocks, and glide-block systems. Half grabens, the most likely models for Basin and Range structure, are formed above a master fault of decreasing dip with depth and a hangingwall that deforms as it passes over the curved fault. Second-order normal faults, typically domino style, accommodate the required hangingwall deformation. According to the author low-angle detachment faults are consistent with the evidence of seismicity only on high-angle faults if the hangingwall of the detachment is broken by multiple half-graben systems

  16. Modelling of Dampers and Damping in Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høgsberg, Jan Riess

    2006-01-01

    and the maximum attainable damping are found by maximizing the expression for the damping ratio. The theory is formulated for linear damper models, but may also be applied for non-linear dampers in terms of equivalent linear parameters for stiffness and damping, respectively. The format of the expressions......, and thereby the damping, of flexible structures are generally described in terms of the dominant vibration modes. A system reduction technique, where the damped vibration mode is constructed as a linear combination of the undamped mode shape and the mode shape obtained by locking the damper, is applied....... This two-component representation leads to a simple solution for the modal damping representing the natural frequency and the associated damping ratio. It appears from numerical examples that this system reduction technique provides very accurate results. % Analytical expressions for the optimal tuning...

  17. Database structure for plasma modeling programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dufresne, M.; Silvester, P.P.

    1993-01-01

    Continuum plasma models often use a finite element (FE) formulation. Another approach is simulation models based on particle-in-cell (PIC) formulation. The model equations generally include four nonlinear differential equations specifying the plasma parameters. In simulation a large number of equations must be integrated iteratively to determine the plasma evolution from an initial state. The complexity of the resulting programs is a combination of the physics involved and the numerical method used. The data structure requirements of plasma programs are stated by defining suitable abstract data types. These abstractions are then reduced to data structures and a group of associated algorithms. These are implemented in an object oriented language (C++) as object classes. Base classes encapsulate data management into a group of common functions such as input-output management, instance variable updating and selection of objects by Boolean operations on their instance variables. Operations are thereby isolated from specific element types and uniformity of treatment is guaranteed. Creation of the data structures and associated functions for a particular plasma model is reduced merely to defining the finite element matrices for each equation, or the equations of motion for PIC models. Changes in numerical method or equation alterations are readily accommodated through the mechanism of inheritance, without modification of the data management software. The central data type is an n-relation implemented as a tuple of variable internal structure. Any finite element program may be described in terms of five relational tables: nodes, boundary conditions, sources, material/particle descriptions, and elements. Equivalently, plasma simulation programs may be described using four relational tables: cells, boundary conditions, sources, and particle descriptions

  18. Short term load forecasting: two stage modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SOARES, L. J.

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the hourly electricity load demand in the area covered by a utility situated in the Seattle, USA, called Puget Sound Power and Light Company. Our proposal is put into proof with the famous dataset from this company. We propose a stochastic model which employs ANN (Artificial Neural Networks to model short-run dynamics and the dependence among adjacent hours. The model proposed treats each hour's load separately as individual single series. This approach avoids modeling the intricate intra-day pattern (load profile displayed by the load, which varies throughout days of the week and seasons. The forecasting performance of the model is evaluated in similiar mode a TLSAR (Two-Level Seasonal Autoregressive model proposed by Soares (2003 using the years of 1995 and 1996 as the holdout sample. Moreover, we conclude that non linearity is present in some series of these data. The model results are analyzed. The experiment shows that our tool can be used to produce load forecasting in tropical climate places.

  19. Statistical properties of derivatives: A journey in term structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lautier, Delphine; Raynaud, Franck

    2011-06-01

    This article presents an empirical study of 13 derivative markets for commodities and financial assets. The study goes beyond statistical analysis by including the maturity as a variable for the daily returns of futures contracts from 1998 to 2010, and for delivery dates up to 120 months. We observe that the mean and variance of the commodities follow a scaling behavior in the maturity dimension with an exponent characteristic of the Samuelson effect. The comparison between the tails of the probability distribution according to the expiration dates shows that there is a segmentation in the fat tails exponent term structure above the Lévy stable region. Finally, we compute the average tail exponent for each maturity, and we observe two regimes of extreme events for derivative markets, reminiscent of a phase diagram with a sharp transition at the 18th delivery month.

  20. Soil Retaining Structures : Development of models for structural analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, K.J.

    2000-01-01

    The topic of this thesis is the development of models for the structural analysis of soil retaining structures. The soil retaining structures being looked at are; block revetments, flexible retaining walls and bored tunnels in soft soil. Within this context typical structural behavior of these

  1. Modelled long term trends of surface ozone over South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, M

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available timescale seeks to provide a spatially comprehensive view of trends while also creating a baseline for comparisons with future projections of air quality through the forcing of air quality models with modelled predicted long term meteorology. Previous...

  2. Modeling of the atomic and electronic structures of interfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sutton, A.P.

    1988-01-01

    Recent tight binding and Car-Parrinello simulations of grain boundaries in semiconductors are reviewed. A critique is given of some models of embrittlement that are based on electronic structure considerations. The structural unit model of grain boundary structure is critically assessed using some results for mixed tilt and twist grain boundaries. A new method of characterizing interfacial structure in terms of bond angle distribution functions is described. A new formulation of thermodynamic properties of interfaces is presented which focusses on the local atomic environment. Effective, temperature dependent N-body atomic interactions are derived for studying grain boundary structure at elevated temperature

  3. A viable D-term hybrid inflation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadota, Kenji; Kobayashi, Tatsuo; Sumita, Keigo

    2017-11-01

    We propose a new model of the D-term hybrid inflation in the framework of supergravity. Although our model introduces, analogously to the conventional D-term inflation, the inflaton and a pair of scalar fields charged under a U(1) gauge symmetry, we study the logarithmic and exponential dependence on the inflaton field, respectively, for the Kähler and superpotential. This results in a characteristic one-loop scalar potential consisting of linear and exponential terms, which realizes the small-field inflation dominated by the Fayet-Iliopoulos term. With the reasonable values for the coupling coefficients and, in particular, with the U(1) gauge coupling constant comparable to that of the Standard Model, our D-term inflation model can solve the notorious problems in the conventional D-term inflation, namely, the CMB constraints on the spectral index and the generation of cosmic strings.

  4. Merons in a generally covariant model with Gursey term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akdeniz, K.G.; Smailagic, A.

    1982-10-01

    We study meron solutions of the generally covariant and Weyl invariant fermionic model with Gursey term. We find that, due to the presence of this term, merons can exist even without the cosmological constant. This is a new feature compared to previously studied models. (author)

  5. Structural model for fluctuations in financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anand, Kartik; Khedair, Jonathan; Kühn, Reimer

    2018-05-01

    In this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of a structural model for the dynamics of prices of assets traded in a market which takes the form of an interacting generalization of the geometric Brownian motion model. It is formally equivalent to a model describing the stochastic dynamics of a system of analog neurons, which is expected to exhibit glassy properties and thus many metastable states in a large portion of its parameter space. We perform a generating functional analysis, introducing a slow driving of the dynamics to mimic the effect of slowly varying macroeconomic conditions. Distributions of asset returns over various time separations are evaluated analytically and are found to be fat-tailed in a manner broadly in line with empirical observations. Our model also allows us to identify collective, interaction-mediated properties of pricing distributions and it predicts pricing distributions which are significantly broader than their noninteracting counterparts, if interactions between prices in the model contain a ferromagnetic bias. Using simulations, we are able to substantiate one of the main hypotheses underlying the original modeling, viz., that the phenomenon of volatility clustering can be rationalized in terms of an interplay between the dynamics within metastable states and the dynamics of occasional transitions between them.

  6. Models and structures: mathematical physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This document gathers research activities along 5 main directions. 1) Quantum chaos and dynamical systems. Recent results concern the extension of the exact WKB method that has led to a host of new results on the spectrum and wave functions. Progress have also been made in the description of the wave functions of chaotic quantum systems. Renormalization has been applied to the analysis of dynamical systems. 2) Combinatorial statistical physics. We see the emergence of new techniques applied to various such combinatorial problems, from random walks to random lattices. 3) Integrability: from structures to applications. Techniques of conformal field theory and integrable model systems have been developed. Progress is still made in particular for open systems with boundary conditions, in connection to strings and branes physics. Noticeable links between integrability and exact WKB quantization to 2-dimensional disordered systems have been highlighted. New correlations of eigenvalues and better connections to integrability have been formulated for random matrices. 4) Gravities and string theories. We have developed aspects of 2-dimensional string theory with a particular emphasis on its connection to matrix models as well as non-perturbative properties of M-theory. We have also followed an alternative path known as loop quantum gravity. 5) Quantum field theory. The results obtained lately concern its foundations, in flat or curved spaces, but also applications to second-order phase transitions in statistical systems

  7. Correlation Structures of Correlated Binomial Models and Implied Default Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, Shintaro; Kitsukawa, Kenji; Hisakado, Masato

    2008-11-01

    We show how to analyze and interpret the correlation structures, the conditional expectation values and correlation coefficients of exchangeable Bernoulli random variables. We study implied default distributions for the iTraxx-CJ tranches and some popular probabilistic models, including the Gaussian copula model, Beta binomial distribution model and long-range Ising model. We interpret the differences in their profiles in terms of the correlation structures. The implied default distribution has singular correlation structures, reflecting the credit market implications. We point out two possible origins of the singular behavior.

  8. Hybrid modelling of soil-structure interaction for embedded structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, S.; Penzien, J.

    1981-01-01

    The basic methods currently being used for the analysis of soil-structure interaction fail to properly model three-dimensional embedded structures with flexible foundations. A hybrid model for the analysis of soil-structure interaction is developed in this investigation which takes advantage of the desirable features of both the finite element and substructure methods and which minimizes their undesirable features. The hybrid model is obtained by partitioning the total soil-structure system into a nearfield and a far-field with a smooth hemispherical interface. The near-field consists of the structure and a finite region of soil immediately surrounding its base. The entire near-field may be modelled in three-dimensional form using the finite element method; thus, taking advantage of its ability to model irregular geometries, and the non-linear soil behavior in the immediate vicinity of the structure. (orig./WL)

  9. Forecasting the term structure of crude oil futures prices with neural networks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Malinská, B.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 164, č. 1 (2016), s. 366-379 ISSN 0306-2619 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Term structure * Nelson–Siegel model * Dynamic neural networks * Crude oil futures Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 7.182, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/E/barunik-0453168.pdf

  10. Modelling the Covariance Structure in Marginal Multivariate Count Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonat, W. H.; Olivero, J.; Grande-Vega, M.

    2017-01-01

    The main goal of this article is to present a flexible statistical modelling framework to deal with multivariate count data along with longitudinal and repeated measures structures. The covariance structure for each response variable is defined in terms of a covariance link function combined...... be used to indicate whether there was statistical evidence of a decline in blue duikers and other species hunted during the study period. Determining whether observed drops in the number of animals hunted are indeed true is crucial to assess whether species depletion effects are taking place in exploited...... with a matrix linear predictor involving known matrices. In order to specify the joint covariance matrix for the multivariate response vector, the generalized Kronecker product is employed. We take into account the count nature of the data by means of the power dispersion function associated with the Poisson...

  11. Short-term and long-term earthquake occurrence models for Italy: ETES, ERS and LTST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maura Murru

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available This study describes three earthquake occurrence models as applied to the whole Italian territory, to assess the occurrence probabilities of future (M ≥5.0 earthquakes: two as short-term (24 hour models, and one as long-term (5 and 10 years. The first model for short-term forecasts is a purely stochastic epidemic type earthquake sequence (ETES model. The second short-term model is an epidemic rate-state (ERS forecast based on a model that is physically constrained by the application to the earthquake clustering of the Dieterich rate-state constitutive law. The third forecast is based on a long-term stress transfer (LTST model that considers the perturbations of earthquake probability for interacting faults by static Coulomb stress changes. These models have been submitted to the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP for forecast testing for Italy (ETH-Zurich, and they were locked down to test their validity on real data in a future setting starting from August 1, 2009.

  12. Parametric structural modeling of insect wings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mengesha, T E; Vallance, R R; Barraja, M; Mittal, R

    2009-01-01

    Insects produce thrust and lift forces via coupled fluid-structure interactions that bend and twist their compliant wings during flapping cycles. Insight into this fluid-structure interaction is achieved with numerical modeling techniques such as coupled finite element analysis and computational fluid dynamics, but these methods require accurate and validated structural models of insect wings. Structural models of insect wings depend principally on the shape, dimensions and material properties of the veins and membrane cells. This paper describes a method for parametric modeling of wing geometry using digital images and demonstrates the use of the geometric models in constructing three-dimensional finite element (FE) models and simple reduced-order models. The FE models are more complete and accurate than previously reported models since they accurately represent the topology of the vein network, as well as the shape and dimensions of the veins and membrane cells. The methods are demonstrated by developing a parametric structural model of a cicada forewing.

  13. Structure functions from chiral soliton models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weigel, H.; Reinhardt, H.; Gamberg, L.

    1997-01-01

    We study nucleon structure functions within the bosonized Nambu-Jona-Lasinio (NJL) model where the nucleon emerges as a chiral soliton. We discuss the model predictions on the Gottfried sum rule for electron-nucleon scattering. A comparison with a low-scale parametrization shows that the model reproduces the gross features of the empirical structure functions. We also compute the leading twist contributions of the polarized structure functions g 1 and g 2 in this model. We compare the model predictions on these structure functions with data from the E143 experiment by GLAP evolving them from the scale characteristic for the NJL-model to the scale of the data

  14. A bio-inspired memory model for structural health monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Wei; Zhu, Yong

    2009-04-01

    Long-term structural health monitoring (SHM) systems need intelligent management of the monitoring data. By analogy with the way the human brain processes memories, we present a bio-inspired memory model (BIMM) that does not require prior knowledge of the structure parameters. The model contains three time-domain areas: a sensory memory area, a short-term memory area and a long-term memory area. First, the initial parameters of the structural state are specified to establish safety criteria. Then the large amount of monitoring data that falls within the safety limits is filtered while the data outside the safety limits are captured instantly in the sensory memory area. Second, disturbance signals are distinguished from danger signals in the short-term memory area. Finally, the stable data of the structural balance state are preserved in the long-term memory area. A strategy for priority scheduling via fuzzy c-means for the proposed model is then introduced. An experiment on bridge tower deformation demonstrates that the proposed model can be applied for real-time acquisition, limited-space storage and intelligent mining of the monitoring data in a long-term SHM system.

  15. A bio-inspired memory model for structural health monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng, Wei; Zhu, Yong

    2009-01-01

    Long-term structural health monitoring (SHM) systems need intelligent management of the monitoring data. By analogy with the way the human brain processes memories, we present a bio-inspired memory model (BIMM) that does not require prior knowledge of the structure parameters. The model contains three time-domain areas: a sensory memory area, a short-term memory area and a long-term memory area. First, the initial parameters of the structural state are specified to establish safety criteria. Then the large amount of monitoring data that falls within the safety limits is filtered while the data outside the safety limits are captured instantly in the sensory memory area. Second, disturbance signals are distinguished from danger signals in the short-term memory area. Finally, the stable data of the structural balance state are preserved in the long-term memory area. A strategy for priority scheduling via fuzzy c-means for the proposed model is then introduced. An experiment on bridge tower deformation demonstrates that the proposed model can be applied for real-time acquisition, limited-space storage and intelligent mining of the monitoring data in a long-term SHM system

  16. Structural change of the economy, technological progress and long-term energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klinge Jacobsen, H.

    2000-01-01

    The material included in the report is a collection of papers dealing with different issues related to the topics included in the title. Some of these papers have already either been published or presented at various conferences. Together with a general introduction, they constitute the author's PhD dissertation. The dissertation includes six papers and two shorter notes on different aspects of structural change of the economy and energy demand. Three different issues related to long-term energy demand are discussed: (1) the importance of technological change and its representation in energy-economy modelling, (2) an integration of two different modelling approaches, and (3) the effect on energy demand of structural changes exemplified by changes in the energy supply sector and in Danish trade patterns. The report highlights a few aspects of the interaction between structural economic changes and energy demand, but it does not intend to cover a wide range of issues related to these topics. In the introductory chapter some discussions and thoughts about issues not covered by the articles are brought forward. The introductory chapter includes an overview of possible relations between longterm energy demand and the economy, technical progress demography, social conditions and politics. The first two papers discuss the importance for projections of long-term energy demand of the way in which technological progress is modelled. These papers focus on energy-economy modelling. A paper dealing with two different approaches to energy demand modelling and the possible integration of these approaches in the Danish case follows next. The integrated Danish model, is then used for analysing different revenue recycling principles in relation to a CO 2 tax. The effect of subsidising biomass use is compared with recycling through corporate tax rates. Then a paper follows describing the structural change of a specific sector, namely the energy supply sector, and the implications for

  17. 'Semi-realistic'F-term inflation model building in supergravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kain, Ben

    2008-01-01

    We describe methods for building 'semi-realistic' models of F-term inflation. By semi-realistic we mean that they are built in, and obey the requirements of, 'semi-realistic' particle physics models. The particle physics models are taken to be effective supergravity theories derived from orbifold compactifications of string theory, and their requirements are taken to be modular invariance, absence of mass terms and stabilization of moduli. We review the particle physics models, their requirements and tools and methods for building inflation models

  18. Structuring spot, short and long term gas contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gretener, N.M.

    1996-01-01

    A review of the core clauses of the modern natural gas purchase and sales contracts, was presented. There exists a wide variety of terms which can be used by a seller and a buyer to customize such a contract to suit particular circumstances. On the basis of length of term, gas contracts may classified as spot contracts having a term of 30 days or less, short term contracts having a term of 30 days to one to two years, and long term contracts having terms greater than two years. The three key elements which are applicable to all gas sales contracts are the contract price, the seller's obligation to deliver, and the buyer's obligation to accept. Other provisions that may be included in any gas sales contract in addition to the basic three were reviewed, including market pricing, load factor incentive pricing, seasonal pricing, pipeline demand charges, market shares, and the seller's right to decontract

  19. Integrative structure modeling with the Integrative Modeling Platform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Benjamin; Viswanath, Shruthi; Bonomi, Massimiliano; Pellarin, Riccardo; Greenberg, Charles H; Saltzberg, Daniel; Sali, Andrej

    2018-01-01

    Building models of a biological system that are consistent with the myriad data available is one of the key challenges in biology. Modeling the structure and dynamics of macromolecular assemblies, for example, can give insights into how biological systems work, evolved, might be controlled, and even designed. Integrative structure modeling casts the building of structural models as a computational optimization problem, for which information about the assembly is encoded into a scoring function that evaluates candidate models. Here, we describe our open source software suite for integrative structure modeling, Integrative Modeling Platform (https://integrativemodeling.org), and demonstrate its use. © 2017 The Protein Society.

  20. Integrated modeling of long-term vegetation and hydrologic dynamics in Rocky Mountain watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert Steven Ahl

    2007-01-01

    Changes in forest structure resulting from natural disturbances, or managed treatments, can have negative and long lasting impacts on water resources. To facilitate integrated management of forest and water resources, a System for Long-Term Integrated Management Modeling (SLIMM) was developed. By combining two spatially explicit, continuous time models, vegetation...

  1. A phenomenological memristor model for short-term/long-term memory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ling; Li, Chuandong; Huang, Tingwen; Ahmad, Hafiz Gulfam; Chen, Yiran

    2014-01-01

    Memristor is considered to be a natural electrical synapse because of its distinct memory property and nanoscale. In recent years, more and more similar behaviors are observed between memristors and biological synapse, e.g., short-term memory (STM) and long-term memory (LTM). The traditional mathematical models are unable to capture the new emerging behaviors. In this article, an updated phenomenological model based on the model of the Hewlett–Packard (HP) Labs has been proposed to capture such new behaviors. The new dynamical memristor model with an improved ion diffusion term can emulate the synapse behavior with forgetting effect, and exhibit the transformation between the STM and the LTM. Further, this model can be used in building new type of neural networks with forgetting ability like biological systems, and it is verified by our experiment with Hopfield neural network. - Highlights: • We take the Fick diffusion and the Soret diffusion into account in the ion drift theory. • We develop a new model based on the old HP model. • The new model can describe the forgetting effect and the spike-rate-dependent property of memristor. • The new model can solve the boundary effect of all window functions discussed in [13]. • A new Hopfield neural network with the forgetting ability is built by the new memristor model

  2. Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkers, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2002-01-01

    To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems,

  3. Testing for long-range dependence in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cajueiro, Daniel O.; Tabak, Benjamin M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents empirical evidence of fractional dynamics in interest rates for different maturities for Brazil. A variation of a newly developed test for long-range dependence, the V/S statistic, with a post-blackening bootstrap is employed. Results suggest that Brazilian interest rates possess strong long-range dependence in volatility, even when considering the structural break in 1999. These findings imply that the development of policy models that give rise to long-range dependence in interest rates' volatility could be very useful. The long-short-term interest rates spread has strong long-range dependence, which suggests that traditional tests of expectation hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates may be misspecified.

  4. Can the dynamics of the term structure of petroleum futures be forecasted? Evidence from major markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skiadopoulos, George; Chantziara, Thalia

    2008-01-01

    We investigate whether the daily evolution of the term structure of petroleum futures can be forecasted. To this end, the principal components analysis is employed. The retained principal components describe the dynamics of the term structure of futures prices parsimoniously and are used to forecast the subsequent daily changes of futures prices. Data on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, and the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) crude oil futures are used. We find that the retained principal components have small forecasting power both in-sample and out-of-sample. Similar results are obtained from standard univariate and vector autoregression models. Spillover effects between the four petroleum futures markets are also detected. (author)

  5. A new ensemble model for short term wind power prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan

    2012-01-01

    As the objective of this study, a non-linear ensemble system is used to develop a new model for predicting wind speed in short-term time scale. Short-term wind power prediction becomes an extremely important field of research for the energy sector. Regardless of the recent advancements in the re-search...... of prediction models, it was observed that different models have different capabilities and also no single model is suitable under all situations. The idea behind EPS (ensemble prediction systems) is to take advantage of the unique features of each subsystem to detain diverse patterns that exist in the dataset...

  6. Modeling and identification in structural dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Jayakumar, Paramsothy

    1987-01-01

    Analytical modeling of structures subjected to ground motions is an important aspect of fully dynamic earthquake-resistant design. In general, linear models are only sufficient to represent structural responses resulting from earthquake motions of small amplitudes. However, the response of structures during strong ground motions is highly nonlinear and hysteretic. System identification is an effective tool for developing analytical models from experimental data. Testing of full-scale prot...

  7. Long-Term Structural Health Monitoring System for a High-Speed Railway Bridge Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Lai-Yi

    2015-01-01

    Nanjing Dashengguan Bridge, which serves as the shared corridor crossing Yangtze River for both Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway and Shanghai-Wuhan-Chengdu railway, is the first 6-track high-speed railway bridge with the longest span throughout the world. In order to ensure safety and detect the performance deterioration during the long-time service of the bridge, a Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) system has been implemented on this bridge by the application of modern techniques in sensing, testing, computing, and network communication. The SHM system includes various sensors as well as corresponding data acquisition and transmission equipment for automatic data collection. Furthermore, an evaluation system of structural safety has been developed for the real-time condition assessment of this bridge. The mathematical correlation models describing the overall structural behavior of the bridge can be obtained with the support of the health monitoring system, which includes cross-correlation models for accelerations, correlation models between temperature and static strains of steel truss arch, and correlation models between temperature and longitudinal displacements of piers. Some evaluation results using the mean value control chart based on mathematical correlation models are presented in this paper to show the effectiveness of this SHM system in detecting the bridge's abnormal behaviors under the varying environmental conditions such as high-speed trains and environmental temperature. PMID:26451387

  8. Long-Term Structural Health Monitoring System for a High-Speed Railway Bridge Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You-Liang Ding

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Nanjing Dashengguan Bridge, which serves as the shared corridor crossing Yangtze River for both Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway and Shanghai-Wuhan-Chengdu railway, is the first 6-track high-speed railway bridge with the longest span throughout the world. In order to ensure safety and detect the performance deterioration during the long-time service of the bridge, a Structural Health Monitoring (SHM system has been implemented on this bridge by the application of modern techniques in sensing, testing, computing, and network communication. The SHM system includes various sensors as well as corresponding data acquisition and transmission equipment for automatic data collection. Furthermore, an evaluation system of structural safety has been developed for the real-time condition assessment of this bridge. The mathematical correlation models describing the overall structural behavior of the bridge can be obtained with the support of the health monitoring system, which includes cross-correlation models for accelerations, correlation models between temperature and static strains of steel truss arch, and correlation models between temperature and longitudinal displacements of piers. Some evaluation results using the mean value control chart based on mathematical correlation models are presented in this paper to show the effectiveness of this SHM system in detecting the bridge’s abnormal behaviors under the varying environmental conditions such as high-speed trains and environmental temperature.

  9. The cointegrated vector autoregressive model with general deterministic terms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    2017-01-01

    In the cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) literature, deterministic terms have until now been analyzed on a case-by-case, or as-needed basis. We give a comprehensive unified treatment of deterministic terms in the additive model X(t)=Z(t) Y(t), where Z(t) belongs to a large class...... of deterministic regressors and Y(t) is a zero-mean CVAR. We suggest an extended model that can be estimated by reduced rank regression and give a condition for when the additive and extended models are asymptotically equivalent, as well as an algorithm for deriving the additive model parameters from the extended...... model parameters. We derive asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators and discuss tests for rank and tests on the deterministic terms. In particular, we give conditions under which the estimators are asymptotically (mixed) Gaussian, such that associated tests are X 2 -distributed....

  10. The cointegrated vector autoregressive model with general deterministic terms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    In the cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) literature, deterministic terms have until now been analyzed on a case-by-case, or as-needed basis. We give a comprehensive unified treatment of deterministic terms in the additive model X(t)= Z(t) + Y(t), where Z(t) belongs to a large class...... of deterministic regressors and Y(t) is a zero-mean CVAR. We suggest an extended model that can be estimated by reduced rank regression and give a condition for when the additive and extended models are asymptotically equivalent, as well as an algorithm for deriving the additive model parameters from the extended...... model parameters. We derive asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators and discuss tests for rank and tests on the deterministic terms. In particular, we give conditions under which the estimators are asymptotically (mixed) Gaussian, such that associated tests are khi squared distributed....

  11. A Surface Modeling Paradigm for Electromagnetic Applications in Aerospace Structures

    OpenAIRE

    Jha, RM; Bokhari, SA; Sudhakar, V; Mahapatra, PR

    1989-01-01

    A systematic approach has been developed to model the surfaces encountered in aerospace engineering for EM applications. The basis of this modeling is the quadric canonical shapes which are the coordinate surfaces of the Eisenhart Coordinate systems. The building blocks are visualized as sections of quadric cylinders and surfaces of revolution. These truncated quadrics can successfully model realistic aerospace structures which are termed a s hybrid quadrics, of which the satellite launch veh...

  12. Long-term behaviour of timber structures in torrent control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rickli, Christian; Graf, Frank

    2014-05-01

    Timber is widely used for protection measures in torrent control. However, life span of woody constructions such as timber check dams is limited due to fungal decay. However, only sparse scientific information is available on the long-term behaviour of timber structures and the colonisation with decay fungi. Related to this, in practice a controversial discussion has been going on if either Norway Spruce (Picea abies) or Silver Fir (Abies alba) is more enduring and if bark removal increases resistance against fungal decay. In order to going into this matter a series of 15 timber check dams built in 1996 has been monitored. The constructions were alternatively realised with Norway Spruce and Silver Fir, half of them each with remaining and removed bark, respectively. The scientific investigations included the documentation of colonisation with rot fungi and the identification of decayed zones with a simple practical approach as well as based on drilling resistance. Colonisation by decay fungi started three years after construction (e.g. Gloeophyllum sepiarium), detecting two years later first parts with reduced wood resistance. Sixteen years after construction decay was found on all check dams but two. Wood quality was markedly better in watered sections compared to the occasionally dry lateral abutment sections. Taking the whole check dams into consideration, slightly more decay was detected in Norway Spruce compared to logs in Silver Fir and both the practical approach and the drilling resistance measurement yielded in more defects on logs without bark. However, due to limited number of replications and fungal data, it was not possible to statistically verify these results. Statistical analysis was restricted to the drilling resistance data and fruit-bodies of decay fungi of the uppermost log of each check dam. Based on this limited analysis significant differences in the effect on the drilling resistance were found for watered sections and lateral abutments

  13. Modeling, Analysis, and Optimization Issues for Large Space Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinson, L. D. (Compiler); Amos, A. K. (Compiler); Venkayya, V. B. (Compiler)

    1983-01-01

    Topics concerning the modeling, analysis, and optimization of large space structures are discussed including structure-control interaction, structural and structural dynamics modeling, thermal analysis, testing, and design.

  14. Antibody structural modeling with prediction of immunoglobulin structure (PIGS)

    KAUST Repository

    Marcatili, Paolo; Olimpieri, Pier Paolo; Chailyan, Anna; Tramontano, Anna

    2014-01-01

    of antibodies with a very satisfactory accuracy. The strategy is completely automated and extremely fast, requiring only a few minutes (~10 min on average) to build a structural model of an antibody. It is based on the concept of canonical structures of antibody

  15. Long-term Deformation Measurements of Atypical Roof Timber Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Bureš

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper includes conclusions from evaluation of results obtained from long-termmeasuring of innovative atypical roof timber structures. Based on the results ofmeasurements of vertical and horizontal deformation components it is possible to analyzethe real behavior of structures in given conditions. By assessing deformations in variousstages, including particularly external and internal environment temperatures, relative airhumidity and moisture content of wood, decisive parameters for real structure behaviorcan be established. The data are processed from period 2001 – 2013.

  16. A Team Building Model for Software Engineering Courses Term Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Yasar Guneri

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model for team building, which enables teachers to build coherent teams rapidly and fairly for the term projects of software engineering courses. Moreover, the model can also be used to build teams for any type of project, if the team member candidates are students, or if they are inexperienced on a certain subject. The…

  17. Simple model for crop photosynthesis in terms of weather variables ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A theoretical mathematical model for describing crop photosynthetic rate in terms of the weather variables and crop characteristics is proposed. The model utilizes a series of efficiency parameters, each of which reflect the fraction of possible photosynthetic rate permitted by the different weather elements or crop architecture.

  18. Model for expressing leaf photosynthesis in terms of weather variables

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A theoretical mathematical model for describing photosynthesis in individual leaves in terms of weather variables is proposed. The model utilizes a series of efficiency parameters, each of which reflect the fraction of potential photosynthetic rate permitted by the different environmental elements. These parameters are useful ...

  19. Mathematical Modeling: A Structured Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anhalt, Cynthia Oropesa; Cortez, Ricardo

    2015-01-01

    Mathematical modeling, in which students use mathematics to explain or interpret physical, social, or scientific phenomena, is an essential component of the high school curriculum. The Common Core State Standards for Mathematics (CCSSM) classify modeling as a K-12 standard for mathematical practice and as a conceptual category for high school…

  20. The Starobinsky model from superconformal D-term inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchmuller, W.; Domcke, V.; Kamada, K.

    2013-06-01

    We point out that in the large field regime, the recently proposed superconformal D-term inflation model coincides with the Starobinsky model. In this regime, the inflaton field dominates over the Planck mass in the gravitational kinetic term in the Jordan frame. Slow-roll inflation is realized in the large field regime for sufficiently large gauge couplings. The Starobinsky model generally emerges as an effective description of slow-roll inflation if a Jordan frame exists where, for large inflaton field values, the action is scale invariant and the ratio λ of the inflaton self-coupling and the nonminimal coupling to gravity is tiny. The interpretation of this effective coupling is different in different models. In superconformal D-term inflation it is determined by the scale of grand unification, λ∝(Λ GUT /M P ) 4 .

  1. The Starobinsky model from superconformal D-term inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buchmuller, W.; Domcke, V.; Kamada, K.

    2013-06-15

    We point out that in the large field regime, the recently proposed superconformal D-term inflation model coincides with the Starobinsky model. In this regime, the inflaton field dominates over the Planck mass in the gravitational kinetic term in the Jordan frame. Slow-roll inflation is realized in the large field regime for sufficiently large gauge couplings. The Starobinsky model generally emerges as an effective description of slow-roll inflation if a Jordan frame exists where, for large inflaton field values, the action is scale invariant and the ratio {lambda} of the inflaton self-coupling and the nonminimal coupling to gravity is tiny. The interpretation of this effective coupling is different in different models. In superconformal D-term inflation it is determined by the scale of grand unification, {lambda}{proportional_to}({Lambda}{sub GUT}/M{sub P}){sup 4}.

  2. Relativistic models of nuclear structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gillet, V.; Kim, E.J.; Cauvin, M.; Kohmura, T.; Ohnaka, S.

    1991-01-01

    The introduction of the relativistic field formalism for the description of nuclear structure has improved our understanding of fundamental nuclear mechanisms such as saturation or many body forces. We discuss some of these progresses, both in the semi-classical mean field approximation and in a quantized meson field approach. (author)

  3. Probabilistic models for structured sparsity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Michael Riis

    sparse solutions to linear inverse problems. In this part, the sparsity promoting prior known as the spike-and-slab prior (Mitchell and Beauchamp, 1988) is generalized to the structured sparsity setting. An expectation propagation algorithm is derived for approximate posterior inference. The proposed...

  4. QCD analysis of structure functions in terms of Jacobi polynomials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krivokhizhin, V.G.; Kurlovich, S.P.; Savin, I.A.; Sidorov, A.V.; Skachkov, N.B.; Sanadze, V.V.

    1987-01-01

    A new method of QCD-analysis of singlet and nonsinglet structure functions based on their expansion in orthogonal Jacobi polynomials is proposed. An accuracy of the method is studied and its application is demonstrated using the structure function F 2 (x,Q 2 ) obtained by the EMC Collaboration from measurements with an iron target. (orig.)

  5. Modelling the harmonized tertiary Institutions Salary Structure ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper analyses the Harmonized Tertiary Institution Salary Structure (HATISS IV) used in Nigeria. The irregularities in the structure are highlighted. A model that assumes a polynomial trend for the zero step salary, and exponential trend for the incremental rates, is suggested for the regularization of the structure.

  6. Structural Equation Modeling of Multivariate Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    du Toit, Stephen H. C.; Browne, Michael W.

    2007-01-01

    The covariance structure of a vector autoregressive process with moving average residuals (VARMA) is derived. It differs from other available expressions for the covariance function of a stationary VARMA process and is compatible with current structural equation methodology. Structural equation modeling programs, such as LISREL, may therefore be…

  7. Structural modeling techniques by finite element method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Yeong Jin; Kim, Geung Hwan; Ju, Gwan Jeong

    1991-01-01

    This book includes introduction table of contents chapter 1 finite element idealization introduction summary of the finite element method equilibrium and compatibility in the finite element solution degrees of freedom symmetry and anti symmetry modeling guidelines local analysis example references chapter 2 static analysis structural geometry finite element models analysis procedure modeling guidelines references chapter 3 dynamic analysis models for dynamic analysis dynamic analysis procedures modeling guidelines and modeling guidelines.

  8. Models with oscillator terms in noncommutative quantum field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kronberger, E.

    2010-01-01

    The main focus of this Ph.D. thesis is on noncommutative models involving oscillator terms in the action. The first one historically is the successful Grosse-Wulkenhaar (G.W.) model which has already been proven to be renormalizable to all orders of perturbation theory. Remarkably it is furthermore capable of solving the Landau ghost problem. In a first step, we have generalized the G.W. model to gauge theories in a very straightforward way, where the action is BRS invariant and exhibits the good damping properties of the scalar theory by using the same propagator, the so-called Mehler kernel. To be able to handle some more involved one-loop graphs we have programmed a powerful Mathematica package, which is capable of analytically computing Feynman graphs with many terms. The result of those investigations is that new terms originally not present in the action arise, which led us to the conclusion that we should better start from a theory where those terms are already built in. Fortunately there is an action containing this complete set of terms. It can be obtained by coupling a gauge field to the scalar field of the G.W. model, integrating out the latter, and thus 'inducing' a gauge theory. Hence the model is called Induced Gauge Theory. Despite the advantage that it is by construction completely gauge invariant, it contains also some unphysical terms linear in the gauge field. Advantageously we could get rid of these terms using a special gauge dedicated to this purpose. Within this gauge we could again establish the Mehler kernel as gauge field propagator. Furthermore we where able to calculate the ghost propagator, which turned out to be very involved. Thus we were able to start with the first few loop computations showing the expected behavior. The next step is to show renormalizability of the model, where some hints towards this direction will also be given. (author) [de

  9. Residual Structures in Latent Growth Curve Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Kevin J.; Widaman, Keith F.

    2010-01-01

    Several alternatives are available for specifying the residual structure in latent growth curve modeling. Two specifications involve uncorrelated residuals and represent the most commonly used residual structures. The first, building on repeated measures analysis of variance and common specifications in multilevel models, forces residual variances…

  10. A Teaching Model for Truss Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigoni, Davide; Dal Corso, Francesco; Misseroni, Diego; Tommasini, Mirko

    2012-01-01

    A classroom demonstration model has been designed, machined and successfully tested in different learning environments to facilitate understanding of the mechanics of truss structures, in which struts are subject to purely axial load and deformation. Gaining confidence with these structures is crucial for the development of lattice models, which…

  11. Exploring RNA structure by integrative molecular modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masquida, Benoît; Beckert, Bertrand; Jossinet, Fabrice

    2010-01-01

    RNA molecular modelling is adequate to rapidly tackle the structure of RNA molecules. With new structured RNAs constituting a central class of cellular regulators discovered every year, the need for swift and reliable modelling methods is more crucial than ever. The pragmatic method based...... on interactive all-atom molecular modelling relies on the observation that specific structural motifs are recurrently found in RNA sequences. Once identified by a combination of comparative sequence analysis and biochemical data, the motifs composing the secondary structure of a given RNA can be extruded...

  12. Long-term predictive capability of erosion models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veerabhadra, P.; Buckley, D. H.

    1983-01-01

    A brief overview of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion and modeling methods proposed by different investigators, including the curve-fit approach is presented. A table was prepared to highlight the number of variables necessary for each model in order to compute the erosion-versus-time curves. A power law relation based on the average erosion rate is suggested which may solve several modeling problems.

  13. An evolving network model with community structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Chunguang; Maini, Philip K

    2005-01-01

    Many social and biological networks consist of communities-groups of nodes within which connections are dense, but between which connections are sparser. Recently, there has been considerable interest in designing algorithms for detecting community structures in real-world complex networks. In this paper, we propose an evolving network model which exhibits community structure. The network model is based on the inner-community preferential attachment and inter-community preferential attachment mechanisms. The degree distributions of this network model are analysed based on a mean-field method. Theoretical results and numerical simulations indicate that this network model has community structure and scale-free properties

  14. Network structure exploration via Bayesian nonparametric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Y; Wang, X L; Xiang, X; Tang, B Z; Bu, J Z

    2015-01-01

    Complex networks provide a powerful mathematical representation of complex systems in nature and society. To understand complex networks, it is crucial to explore their internal structures, also called structural regularities. The task of network structure exploration is to determine how many groups there are in a complex network and how to group the nodes of the network. Most existing structure exploration methods need to specify either a group number or a certain type of structure when they are applied to a network. In the real world, however, the group number and also the certain type of structure that a network has are usually unknown in advance. To explore structural regularities in complex networks automatically, without any prior knowledge of the group number or the certain type of structure, we extend a probabilistic mixture model that can handle networks with any type of structure but needs to specify a group number using Bayesian nonparametric theory. We also propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric model, called the Bayesian nonparametric mixture (BNPM) model. Experiments conducted on a large number of networks with different structures show that the BNPM model is able to explore structural regularities in networks automatically with a stable, state-of-the-art performance. (paper)

  15. Complex Network Structure Influences Processing in Long-Term and Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitevitch, Michael S.; Chan, Kit Ying; Roodenrys, Steven

    2012-01-01

    Complex networks describe how entities in systems interact; the structure of such networks is argued to influence processing. One measure of network structure, clustering coefficient, C, measures the extent to which neighbors of a node are also neighbors of each other. Previous psycholinguistic experiments found that the C of phonological…

  16. Structural Modeling Using "Scanning and Mapping" Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amos, Courtney L.; Dash, Gerald S.; Shen, J. Y.; Ferguson, Frederick; Noga, Donald F. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Supported by NASA Glenn Center, we are in the process developing a structural damage diagnostic and monitoring system for rocket engines, which consists of five modules: Structural Modeling, Measurement Data Pre-Processor, Structural System Identification, Damage Detection Criterion, and Computer Visualization. The function of the system is to detect damage as it is incurred by the engine structures. The scientific principle to identify damage is to utilize the changes in the vibrational properties between the pre-damaged and post-damaged structures. The vibrational properties of the pre-damaged structure can be obtained based on an analytic computer model of the structure. Thus, as the first stage of the whole research plan, we currently focus on the first module - Structural Modeling. Three computer software packages are selected, and will be integrated for this purpose. They are PhotoModeler-Pro, AutoCAD-R14, and MSC/NASTRAN. AutoCAD is the most popular PC-CAD system currently available in the market. For our purpose, it plays like an interface to generate structural models of any particular engine parts or assembly, which is then passed to MSC/NASTRAN for extracting structural dynamic properties. Although AutoCAD is a powerful structural modeling tool, the complexity of engine components requires a further improvement in structural modeling techniques. We are working on a so-called "scanning and mapping" technique, which is a relatively new technique. The basic idea is to producing a full and accurate 3D structural model by tracing on multiple overlapping photographs taken from different angles. There is no need to input point positions, angles, distances or axes. Photographs can be taken by any types of cameras with different lenses. With the integration of such a modeling technique, the capability of structural modeling will be enhanced. The prototypes of any complex structural components will be produced by PhotoModeler first based on existing similar

  17. Short-term forecasting model for aggregated regional hydropower generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteiro, Claudio; Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.; Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Original short-term forecasting model for the hourly hydropower generation. • The use of NWP forecasts allows horizons of several days. • New variable to represent the capacity level for generating hydroelectric energy. • The proposed model significantly outperforms the persistence model. - Abstract: This paper presents an original short-term forecasting model of the hourly electric power production for aggregated regional hydropower generation. The inputs of the model are previously recorded values of the aggregated hourly production of hydropower plants and hourly water precipitation forecasts using Numerical Weather Prediction tools, as well as other hourly data (load demand and wind generation). This model is composed of three modules: the first one gives the prediction of the “monthly” hourly power production of the hydropower plants; the second module gives the prediction of hourly power deviation values, which are added to that obtained by the first module to achieve the final forecast of the hourly hydropower generation; the third module allows a periodic adjustment of the prediction of the first module to improve its BIAS error. The model has been applied successfully to the real-life case study of the short-term forecasting of the aggregated hydropower generation in Spain and Portugal (Iberian Peninsula Power System), achieving satisfactory results for the next-day forecasts. The model can be valuable for agents involved in electricity markets and useful for power system operations

  18. Tree-Structured Digital Organisms Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Teruhiko; Nobesawa, Shiho; Tahara, Ikuo

    Tierra and Avida are well-known models of digital organisms. They describe a life process as a sequence of computation codes. A linear sequence model may not be the only way to describe a digital organism, though it is very simple for a computer-based model. Thus we propose a new digital organism model based on a tree structure, which is rather similar to the generic programming. With our model, a life process is a combination of various functions, as if life in the real world is. This implies that our model can easily describe the hierarchical structure of life, and it can simulate evolutionary computation through mutual interaction of functions. We verified our model by simulations that our model can be regarded as a digital organism model according to its definitions. Our model even succeeded in creating species such as viruses and parasites.

  19. Long Term Seismic Observation in Mariana by OBSs : Double Seismic Zone and Upper Mantle Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiobara, H.; Sugioka, H.; Mochizuki, K.; Oki, S.; Kanazawa, T.; Fukao, Y.; Suyehiro, K.

    2005-12-01

    In order to obtain the deep arc structural image of Mariana, a large-scale seismic observation by using 58 long-term ocean bottom seismometers (LTOBS) had been performed from June 2003 until April 2004, which is a part of the MARGINS program funded by the NSF. Prior to this observation, a pilot long-term seismic array observation was conducted in the same area by using 10 LTOBSs from Oct. 2001 until Feb. 2003. At that time, 8 LTOBSs were recovered but one had no data. Recently, 2 LTOBSs, had troubles in the releasing, were recovered by the manned submersible (Shinkai 6500, Jamstec) for the research of the malfunction in July 2005. By using all 9 LTOBS's data, those are about 11 months long, hypocenter determination was performed and more than 3000 local events were found. Even with the 1D velocity structure based on the iasp91 model, double seismic zones and a systematic shift of epicenters between the PDE and this study were observed. To investigate the detail of hypocenter distribution and the 3D velocity structure, the DD inversion (tomoDD: Zhang and Thurber, 2003) was applied for this data set with the 1D structure initial model except for the crust, which has been surveyed by using a dense airgun-OBS system (Takahashi et al., 2003). The result of relocated hypocenters shows clear double seismic zones until about 200 km depth, a high activity area around the fore-arc serpentine sea-mount, the Big Blue, and a lined focuses along the current ridge axis in the back-arc basin, and the result of the tomography shows a image of subducting slab and a low-Vs region below the same sea-mount mentioned. The wedge mantle structure was not clearly resolved due to the inadequate source-receiver coverage, which will be done in the recent experiment.

  20. Modelling Pressurized Water Reactor cores in terms of porous media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ricciardi, G.; Collard, B.; Ricciardi, G.; Bellizzi, S.; Cochelin, B.

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study is to develop a tractable model of a nuclear reactor core taking the complexity of the structure (including its nonlinear behaviour) and fluid flow coupling into account. The mechanical behaviour modelling includes the dynamics of both the fuel assemblies and the fluid. Each rod bundle is modelled in the form of a deformable porous medium; then, the velocity field of the fluid and the displacement field of the structure are defined over the whole domain. The fluid and the structure are first modelled separately, before being linked together. The equations of motion for the structure are obtained using a Lagrangian approach and, to be able to link up the fluid and the structure, the equations of motion for the fluid are obtained using an arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian approach. The finite element method is applied to spatially discretize the equations. Simulations are performed to analyse the effects of the characteristics of the fluid and of the structure. Finally, the model is validated with a test involving two fuel assemblies, showing good agreement with the experimental data. (authors)

  1. Structured statistical models of inductive reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, Charles; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

    2009-01-01

    Everyday inductive inferences are often guided by rich background knowledge. Formal models of induction should aim to incorporate this knowledge and should explain how different kinds of knowledge lead to the distinctive patterns of reasoning found in different inductive contexts. This article presents a Bayesian framework that attempts to meet both goals and describes [corrected] 4 applications of the framework: a taxonomic model, a spatial model, a threshold model, and a causal model. Each model makes probabilistic inferences about the extensions of novel properties, but the priors for the 4 models are defined over different kinds of structures that capture different relationships between the categories in a domain. The framework therefore shows how statistical inference can operate over structured background knowledge, and the authors argue that this interaction between structure and statistics is critical for explaining the power and flexibility of human reasoning.

  2. Murine model of long-term obstructive jaundice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoki, Hiroaki; Aoki, Masayo; Yang, Jing; Katsuta, Eriko; Mukhopadhyay, Partha; Ramanathan, Rajesh; Woelfel, Ingrid A; Wang, Xuan; Spiegel, Sarah; Zhou, Huiping; Takabe, Kazuaki

    2016-11-01

    With the recent emergence of conjugated bile acids as signaling molecules in cancer, a murine model of obstructive jaundice by cholestasis with long-term survival is in need. Here, we investigated the characteristics of three murine models of obstructive jaundice. C57BL/6J mice were used for total ligation of the common bile duct (tCL), partial common bile duct ligation (pCL), and ligation of left and median hepatic bile duct with gallbladder removal (LMHL) models. Survival was assessed by Kaplan-Meier method. Fibrotic change was determined by Masson-Trichrome staining and Collagen expression. Overall, 70% (7 of 10) of tCL mice died by day 7, whereas majority 67% (10 of 15) of pCL mice survived with loss of jaundice. A total of 19% (3 of 16) of LMHL mice died; however, jaundice continued beyond day 14, with survival of more than a month. Compensatory enlargement of the right lobe was observed in both pCL and LMHL models. The pCL model demonstrated acute inflammation due to obstructive jaundice 3 d after ligation but jaundice rapidly decreased by day 7. The LHML group developed portal hypertension and severe fibrosis by day 14 in addition to prolonged jaundice. The standard tCL model is too unstable with high mortality for long-term studies. pCL may be an appropriate model for acute inflammation with obstructive jaundice, but long-term survivors are no longer jaundiced. The LHML model was identified to be the most feasible model to study the effect of long-term obstructive jaundice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Modeling protein structures: construction and their applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ring, C S; Cohen, F E

    1993-06-01

    Although no general solution to the protein folding problem exists, the three-dimensional structures of proteins are being successfully predicted when experimentally derived constraints are used in conjunction with heuristic methods. In the case of interleukin-4, mutagenesis data and CD spectroscopy were instrumental in the accurate assignment of secondary structure. In addition, the tertiary structure was highly constrained by six cysteines separated by many residues that formed three disulfide bridges. Although the correct structure was a member of a short list of plausible structures, the "best" structure was the topological enantiomer of the experimentally determined conformation. For many proteases, other experimentally derived structures can be used as templates to identify the secondary structure elements. In a procedure called modeling by homology, the structure of a known protein is used as a scaffold to predict the structure of another related protein. This method has been used to model a serine and a cysteine protease that are important in the schistosome and malarial life cycles, respectively. The model structures were then used to identify putative small molecule enzyme inhibitors computationally. Experiments confirm that some of these nonpeptidic compounds are active at concentrations of less than 10 microM.

  4. A first course in structural equation modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Raykov, Tenko

    2012-01-01

    In this book, authors Tenko Raykov and George A. Marcoulides introduce students to the basics of structural equation modeling (SEM) through a conceptual, nonmathematical approach. For ease of understanding, the few mathematical formulas presented are used in a conceptual or illustrative nature, rather than a computational one.Featuring examples from EQS, LISREL, and Mplus, A First Course in Structural Equation Modeling is an excellent beginner's guide to learning how to set up input files to fit the most commonly used types of structural equation models with these programs. The basic ideas and methods for conducting SEM are independent of any particular software.Highlights of the Second Edition include: Review of latent change (growth) analysis models at an introductory level Coverage of the popular Mplus program Updated examples of LISREL and EQS A CD that contains all of the text's LISREL, EQS, and Mplus examples.A First Course in Structural Equation Modeling is intended as an introductory book for students...

  5. Capital Structure: Target Adjustment Model and a Mediation Moderation Model with Capital Structure as Mediator

    OpenAIRE

    Abedmajid, Mohammed

    2015-01-01

    This study consists of two models. Model one is conducted to check if there is a target adjustment toward optimal capital structure, in the context of Turkish firm listed on the stock market, over the period 2003-2014. Model 2 captures the interaction between firm size, profitability, market value and capital structure using the moderation mediation model. The results of model 1 have shown that there is a partial adjustment of the capital structure to reach target levels. The results of...

  6. Modeling of soil-water-structure interaction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tang, Tian

    as the developed nonlinear soil displacements and stresses under monotonic and cyclic loading. With the FVM nonlinear coupled soil models as a basis, multiphysics modeling of wave-seabed-structure interaction is carried out. The computations are done in an open source code environment, OpenFOAM, where FVM models...

  7. Multiplicity Control in Structural Equation Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cribbie, Robert A.

    2007-01-01

    Researchers conducting structural equation modeling analyses rarely, if ever, control for the inflated probability of Type I errors when evaluating the statistical significance of multiple parameters in a model. In this study, the Type I error control, power and true model rates of famsilywise and false discovery rate controlling procedures were…

  8. Model techniques for testing heated concrete structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stefanou, G.D.

    1983-01-01

    Experimental techniques are described which may be used in the laboratory to measure strains of model concrete structures representing to scale actual structures of any shape or geometry, operating at elevated temperatures, for which time-dependent creep and shrinkage strains are dominant. These strains could be used to assess the distribution of stress in the scaled structure and hence to predict the actual behaviour of concrete structures used in nuclear power stations. Similar techniques have been employed in an investigation to measure elastic, thermal, creep and shrinkage strains in heated concrete models representing to scale parts of prestressed concrete pressure vessels for nuclear reactors. (author)

  9. Intelligent-based Structural Damage Detection Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Eric Wai Ming; Yu, K.F.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents the application of a novel Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for the diagnosis of structural damage. The ANN model, denoted as the GRNNFA, is a hybrid model combining the General Regression Neural Network Model (GRNN) and the Fuzzy ART (FA) model. It not only retains the important features of the GRNN and FA models (i.e. fast and stable network training and incremental growth of network structure) but also facilitates the removal of the noise embedded in the training samples. Structural damage alters the stiffness distribution of the structure and so as to change the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the system. The measured modal parameter changes due to a particular damage are treated as patterns for that damage. The proposed GRNNFA model was trained to learn those patterns in order to detect the possible damage location of the structure. Simulated data is employed to verify and illustrate the procedures of the proposed ANN-based damage diagnosis methodology. The results of this study have demonstrated the feasibility of applying the GRNNFA model to structural damage diagnosis even when the training samples were noise contaminated.

  10. Intelligent-based Structural Damage Detection Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Eric Wai Ming; Yu, Kin Fung

    2010-05-01

    This paper presents the application of a novel Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for the diagnosis of structural damage. The ANN model, denoted as the GRNNFA, is a hybrid model combining the General Regression Neural Network Model (GRNN) and the Fuzzy ART (FA) model. It not only retains the important features of the GRNN and FA models (i.e. fast and stable network training and incremental growth of network structure) but also facilitates the removal of the noise embedded in the training samples. Structural damage alters the stiffness distribution of the structure and so as to change the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the system. The measured modal parameter changes due to a particular damage are treated as patterns for that damage. The proposed GRNNFA model was trained to learn those patterns in order to detect the possible damage location of the structure. Simulated data is employed to verify and illustrate the procedures of the proposed ANN-based damage diagnosis methodology. The results of this study have demonstrated the feasibility of applying the GRNNFA model to structural damage diagnosis even when the training samples were noise contaminated.

  11. Histological changes in kidney structure following a long – term ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Histological changes in kidney structure following paracetamol administration in pregnant Sprague - Dawley rats were studied. 10 Sprague-Dawley rats divided into five animals per group were used for the study. They were divided into two groups (A and B). Group A served as a control group, while group B received ...

  12. Modelling the short term herding behaviour of stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapira, Yoash; Berman, Yonatan; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

    2014-01-01

    Modelling the behaviour of stock markets has been of major interest in the past century. The market can be treated as a network of many investors reacting in accordance to their group behaviour, as manifested by the index and effected by the flow of external information into the system. Here we devise a model that encapsulates the behaviour of stock markets. The model consists of two terms, demonstrating quantitatively the effect of the individual tendency to follow the group and the effect of the individual reaction to the available information. Using the above factors we were able to explain several key features of the stock market: the high correlations between the individual stocks and the index; the Epps effect; the high fluctuating nature of the market, which is similar to real market behaviour. Furthermore, intricate long term phenomena are also described by this model, such as bursts of synchronized average correlation and the dominance of the index as demonstrated through partial correlation. (paper)

  13. Selection of models to calculate the LLW source term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, T.M.

    1991-10-01

    Performance assessment of a LLW disposal facility begins with an estimation of the rate at which radionuclides migrate out of the facility (i.e., the source term). The focus of this work is to develop a methodology for calculating the source term. In general, the source term is influenced by the radionuclide inventory, the wasteforms and containers used to dispose of the inventory, and the physical processes that lead to release from the facility (fluid flow, container degradation, wasteform leaching, and radionuclide transport). In turn, many of these physical processes are influenced by the design of the disposal facility (e.g., infiltration of water). The complexity of the problem and the absence of appropriate data prevent development of an entirely mechanistic representation of radionuclide release from a disposal facility. Typically, a number of assumptions, based on knowledge of the disposal system, are used to simplify the problem. This document provides a brief overview of disposal practices and reviews existing source term models as background for selecting appropriate models for estimating the source term. The selection rationale and the mathematical details of the models are presented. Finally, guidance is presented for combining the inventory data with appropriate mechanisms describing release from the disposal facility. 44 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab

  14. Structure functions in the chiral bag model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanjose, V.; Vento, V.; Centro Mixto CSIC/Valencia Univ., Valencia

    1989-01-01

    We calculate the structure functions of an isoscalar nuclear target for the deep inelastic scattering by leptons in an extended version of the chiral bag model which incorporates the qanti q structure of the pions in the cloud. Bjorken scaling and Regge behavior are satisfied. The model calculation reproduces the low-x behavior of the data but fails to explain the medium- to large-x behavior. Evolution of the quark structure functions seem inevitable to attempt a connection between the low-energy models and the high-energy behavior of quantum chromodynamics. (orig.)

  15. Structure functions in the chiral bag model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanjose, V.; Vento, V.

    1989-07-13

    We calculate the structure functions of an isoscalar nuclear target for the deep inelastic scattering by leptons in an extended version of the chiral bag model which incorporates the qanti q structure of the pions in the cloud. Bjorken scaling and Regge behavior are satisfied. The model calculation reproduces the low-x behavior of the data but fails to explain the medium- to large-x behavior. Evolution of the quark structure functions seem inevitable to attempt a connection between the low-energy models and the high-energy behavior of quantum chromodynamics. (orig.).

  16. A simple method for estimating potential source term bypass fractions from confinement structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalinich, D.A.; Paddleford, D.F.

    1997-01-01

    Confinement structures house many of the operating processes at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Under normal operating conditions, a confinement structure in conjunction with its associated ventilation systems prevents the release of radiological material to the environment. However, under potential accident conditions, the performance of the ventilation systems and integrity of the structure may be challenged. In order to calculate the radiological consequences associated with a potential accident (e.g. fires, explosion, spills, etc.), it is necessary to determine the fraction of the source term initially generated by the accident that escapes from the confinement structure to the environment. While it would be desirable to estimate the potential bypass fraction using sophisticated control-volume/flow path computer codes (e.g. CONTAIN, MELCOR, etc.) in order to take as much credit as possible for the mitigative effects of the confinement structure, there are many instances where using such codes is not tractable due to limits on the level-of-effort allotted to perform the analysis. Moreover, the current review environment, with its emphasis on deterministic/bounding-versus probabilistic/best-estimate-analysis discourages using analytical techniques that require the consideration of a large number of parameters. Discussed herein is a simplified control-volume/flow path approach for calculating source term bypass fraction that is amenable to solution in a spreadsheet or with a commercial mathematical solver (e.g. MathCad or Mathematica). It considers the effects of wind and fire pressure gradients on the structure, ventilation system operation, and Halon discharges. Simple models are used to characterize the engineered and non-engineered flow paths. By making judicious choices for the limited set of problem parameters, the results from this approach can be defended as bounding and conservative

  17. A Long-Term Mathematical Model for Mining Industries

    OpenAIRE

    Achdou , Yves; Giraud , Pierre-Noel; Lasry , Jean-Michel; Lions , Pierre-Louis

    2016-01-01

    International audience; A parcimonious long term model is proposed for a mining industry. Knowing the dynamics of the global reserve, the strategy of each production unit consists of an optimal control problem with two controls, first the flux invested into prospection and the building of new extraction facilities, second the production rate. In turn, the dynamics of the global reserve depends on the individual strategies of the producers, so the models leads to an equilibrium, which is descr...

  18. Structural classification and a binary structure model for superconductors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dong Cheng

    2006-01-01

    Based on structural and bonding features, a new classification scheme of superconductors is proposed to classify conductors can be partitioned into two parts, a superconducting active component and a supplementary component.Partially metallic covalent bonding is found to be a common feature in all superconducting active components, and the electron states of the atoms in the active components usually make a dominant contribution to the energy band near the Fermi surface. Possible directions to explore new superconductors are discussed based on the structural classification and the binary structure model.

  19. Automated Protein Structure Modeling with SWISS-MODEL Workspace and the Protein Model Portal

    OpenAIRE

    Bordoli, Lorenza; Schwede, Torsten

    2012-01-01

    Comparative protein structure modeling is a computational approach to build three-dimensional structural models for proteins using experimental structures of related protein family members as templates. Regular blind assessments of modeling accuracy have demonstrated that comparative protein structure modeling is currently the most reliable technique to model protein structures. Homology models are often sufficiently accurate to substitute for experimental structures in a wide variety of appl...

  20. Modelling the Long-term Periglacial Imprint on Mountain Landscapes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jane Lund; Egholm, David Lundbek; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou

    Studies of periglacial processes usually focus on small-scale, isolated phenomena, leaving less explored questions of how such processes shape vast areas of Earth’s surface. Here we use numerical surface process modelling to better understand how periglacial processes drive large-scale, long-term...

  1. Viscous cosmological models with a variable cosmological term ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Einstein's field equations for a Friedmann-Lamaitre Robertson-Walker universe filled with a dissipative fluid with a variable cosmological term L described by full Israel-Stewart theory are considered. General solutions to the field equations for the flat case have been obtained. The solution corresponds to the dust free model ...

  2. A shell-model calculation in terms of correlated subsystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boisson, J.P.; Silvestre-Brac, B.

    1979-01-01

    A method for solving the shell-model equations in terms of a basis which includes correlated subsystems is presented. It is shown that the method allows drastic truncations of the basis to be made. The corresponding calculations are easy to perform and can be carried out rapidly

  3. Risk factors and prognostic models for perinatal asphyxia at term

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ensing, S.

    2015-01-01

    This thesis will focus on the risk factors and prognostic models for adverse perinatal outcome at term, with a special focus on perinatal asphyxia and obstetric interventions during labor to reduce adverse pregnancy outcomes. For the majority of the studies in this thesis we were allowed to use data

  4. MMM: A toolbox for integrative structure modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeschke, Gunnar

    2018-01-01

    Structural characterization of proteins and their complexes may require integration of restraints from various experimental techniques. MMM (Multiscale Modeling of Macromolecules) is a Matlab-based open-source modeling toolbox for this purpose with a particular emphasis on distance distribution restraints obtained from electron paramagnetic resonance experiments on spin-labelled proteins and nucleic acids and their combination with atomistic structures of domains or whole protomers, small-angle scattering data, secondary structure information, homology information, and elastic network models. MMM does not only integrate various types of restraints, but also various existing modeling tools by providing a common graphical user interface to them. The types of restraints that can support such modeling and the available model types are illustrated by recent application examples. © 2017 The Protein Society.

  5. Modeling and mining term association for improving biomedical information retrieval performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Qinmin; Huang, Jimmy Xiangji; Hu, Xiaohua

    2012-06-11

    The growth of the biomedical information requires most information retrieval systems to provide short and specific answers in response to complex user queries. Semantic information in the form of free text that is structured in a way makes it straightforward for humans to read but more difficult for computers to interpret automatically and search efficiently. One of the reasons is that most traditional information retrieval models assume terms are conditionally independent given a document/passage. Therefore, we are motivated to consider term associations within different contexts to help the models understand semantic information and use it for improving biomedical information retrieval performance. We propose a term association approach to discover term associations among the keywords from a query. The experiments are conducted on the TREC 2004-2007 Genomics data sets and the TREC 2004 HARD data set. The proposed approach is promising and achieves superiority over the baselines and the GSP results. The parameter settings and different indices are investigated that the sentence-based index produces the best results in terms of the document-level, the word-based index for the best results in terms of the passage-level and the paragraph-based index for the best results in terms of the passage2-level. Furthermore, the best term association results always come from the best baseline. The tuning number k in the proposed recursive re-ranking algorithm is discussed and locally optimized to be 10. First, modelling term association for improving biomedical information retrieval using factor analysis, is one of the major contributions in our work. Second, the experiments confirm that term association considering co-occurrence and dependency among the keywords can produce better results than the baselines treating the keywords independently. Third, the baselines are re-ranked according to the importance and reliance of latent factors behind term associations. These latent

  6. Long-term properties of concrete in nuclear containment structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Field, S.N.; Bamforth, P.B.

    1991-01-01

    Over the last thirty years a large volume of testing has been carried out on concretes used in prestressed concrete pressure vessels and similar structures. The main aim of the work has been to provide the designers with a prediction method for elastic moduli and creep deformation which takes into account temperature and age at loading. This paper summarises and reviews the results from the six concretes tested by Taywood Engineering Ltd (T.E.L.), comparing mixes with and without PFA. (author)

  7. Correlated binomial models and correlation structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hisakado, Masato; Kitsukawa, Kenji; Mori, Shintaro

    2006-01-01

    We discuss a general method to construct correlated binomial distributions by imposing several consistent relations on the joint probability function. We obtain self-consistency relations for the conditional correlations and conditional probabilities. The beta-binomial distribution is derived by a strong symmetric assumption on the conditional correlations. Our derivation clarifies the 'correlation' structure of the beta-binomial distribution. It is also possible to study the correlation structures of other probability distributions of exchangeable (homogeneous) correlated Bernoulli random variables. We study some distribution functions and discuss their behaviours in terms of their correlation structures

  8. Structural modeling for multicell composite rotor blades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehfield, Lawrence W.; Atilgan, Ali R.

    1987-01-01

    Composite material systems are currently good candidates for aerospace structures, primarily for the design flexibility they offer, i.e., it is possible to tailor the material and manufacturing approach to the application. A working definition of elastic or structural tailoring is the use of structural concept, fiber orientation, ply stacking sequence, and a blend of materials to achieve specific performance goals. In the design process, choices of materials and dimensions are made which produce specific response characteristics, and which permit the selected goals to be achieved. Common choices for tailoring goals are preventing instabilities or vibration resonances or enhancing damage tolerance. An essential, enabling factor in the design of tailored composite structures is structural modeling that accurately, but simply, characterizes response. The objective of this paper is to present a new multicell beam model for composite rotor blades and to validate predictions based on the new model by comparison with a finite element simulation in three benchmark static load cases.

  9. Observations and Modeling of Atmospheric Radiance Structure

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wintersteiner, Peter

    2001-01-01

    The overall purpose of the work that we have undertaken is to provide new capabilities for observing and modeling structured radiance in the atmosphere, particularly the non-LTE regions of the atmosphere...

  10. VISCOELASTIC STRUCTURAL MODEL OF ASPHALT CONCRETE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Bogomolov

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The viscoelastic rheological model of asphalt concrete based on the generalized Kelvin model is offered. The mathematical model of asphalt concrete viscoelastic behavior that can be used for calculation of asphalt concrete upper layers of non-rigid pavements for strength and rutting has been developed. It has been proved that the structural model of Burgers does not fully meet all the requirements of the asphalt-concrete.

  11. Global model structures for ∗-modules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Böhme, Benjamin

    2018-01-01

    We extend Schwede's work on the unstable global homotopy theory of orthogonal spaces and L-spaces to the category of ∗-modules (i.e., unstable S-modules). We prove a theorem which transports model structures and their properties from L-spaces to ∗-modules and show that the resulting global model...... structure for ∗-modules is monoidally Quillen equivalent to that of orthogonal spaces. As a consequence, there are induced Quillen equivalences between the associated model categories of monoids, which identify equivalent models for the global homotopy theory of A∞-spaces....

  12. Linear causal modeling with structural equations

    CERN Document Server

    Mulaik, Stanley A

    2009-01-01

    Emphasizing causation as a functional relationship between variables that describe objects, Linear Causal Modeling with Structural Equations integrates a general philosophical theory of causation with structural equation modeling (SEM) that concerns the special case of linear causal relations. In addition to describing how the functional relation concept may be generalized to treat probabilistic causation, the book reviews historical treatments of causation and explores recent developments in experimental psychology on studies of the perception of causation. It looks at how to perceive causal

  13. Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2003-01-01

    To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems, on

  14. Modelling point patterns with linear structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    2009-01-01

    processes whose realizations contain such linear structures. Such a point process is constructed sequentially by placing one point at a time. The points are placed in such a way that new points are often placed close to previously placed points, and the points form roughly line shaped structures. We...... consider simulations of this model and compare with real data....

  15. Modelling point patterns with linear structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    processes whose realizations contain such linear structures. Such a point process is constructed sequentially by placing one point at a time. The points are placed in such a way that new points are often placed close to previously placed points, and the points form roughly line shaped structures. We...... consider simulations of this model and compare with real data....

  16. Long-term energy demand forecasting for the Sao Paulo state, Brazil, applying the structural decomposition model for three alternative growth sceneries of the state economy; Projecao da demanda setorial de energia do Estado de Sao Paulo no longo prazo, aplicando o modelo de desagregacao estrutural em tres cenarios alternativos de crescimento da economia do estado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laite, Alvaro Afonso Furtado; Bajay, Sergio Valdir; Pereira, Andre Flavio Soares [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica. Dept. de Energia]|[Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Nucleo Interdisciplinar de Planejamento Energetico (NIPE)]. E-mails: afurtado@fem.unicamp.br; bajay@fem.unicamp.br; apereira@fem.unicamp.br

    2006-07-01

    Long-term demand forecasts (up to 2025) are presented in this paper for the main energy forms consumed in the residential, trade and services, rural, transport, and industrial sectors in the State of Sao Paulo. They were obtained with the help of a flexible forecasting model based on the structural decomposition of the demand, for three alternative scenarios concerning the growth of the state economy. These three state-wise scenarios are related to initially nation-wide defined scenarios, through assumptions concerning the evolution on the ratio between the state GDP and the national GDP. (author)

  17. On the internal consistency of the term structure of forecasts of housing starts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We use the term structure of forecasts of housing starts to test for rationality of forecasts. Our test is based on the idea that short-term and long-term forecasts should be internally consistent. We test the internal consistency of forecasts using data for Australia, Canada, Japan and the United...

  18. Modeling Wettability Variation during Long-Term Water Flooding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renyi Cao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Surface property of rock affects oil recovery during water flooding. Oil-wet polar substances adsorbed on the surface of the rock will gradually be desorbed during water flooding, and original reservoir wettability will change towards water-wet, and the change will reduce the residual oil saturation and improve the oil displacement efficiency. However there is a lack of an accurate description of wettability alternation model during long-term water flooding and it will lead to difficulties in history match and unreliable forecasts using reservoir simulators. This paper summarizes the mechanism of wettability variation and characterizes the adsorption of polar substance during long-term water flooding from injecting water or aquifer and relates the residual oil saturation and relative permeability to the polar substance adsorbed on clay and pore volumes of flooding water. A mathematical model is presented to simulate the long-term water flooding and the model is validated with experimental results. The simulation results of long-term water flooding are also discussed.

  19. Structured population models in biology and epidemiology

    CERN Document Server

    Ruan, Shigui

    2008-01-01

    This book consists of six chapters written by leading researchers in mathematical biology. These chapters present recent and important developments in the study of structured population models in biology and epidemiology. Topics include population models structured by age, size, and spatial position; size-structured models for metapopulations, macroparasitc diseases, and prion proliferation; models for transmission of microparasites between host populations living on non-coincident spatial domains; spatiotemporal patterns of disease spread; method of aggregation of variables in population dynamics; and biofilm models. It is suitable as a textbook for a mathematical biology course or a summer school at the advanced undergraduate and graduate level. It can also serve as a reference book for researchers looking for either interesting and specific problems to work on or useful techniques and discussions of some particular problems.

  20. Structural Identifiability of Dynamic Systems Biology Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villaverde, Alejandro F; Barreiro, Antonio; Papachristodoulou, Antonis

    2016-10-01

    A powerful way of gaining insight into biological systems is by creating a nonlinear differential equation model, which usually contains many unknown parameters. Such a model is called structurally identifiable if it is possible to determine the values of its parameters from measurements of the model outputs. Structural identifiability is a prerequisite for parameter estimation, and should be assessed before exploiting a model. However, this analysis is seldom performed due to the high computational cost involved in the necessary symbolic calculations, which quickly becomes prohibitive as the problem size increases. In this paper we show how to analyse the structural identifiability of a very general class of nonlinear models by extending methods originally developed for studying observability. We present results about models whose identifiability had not been previously determined, report unidentifiabilities that had not been found before, and show how to modify those unidentifiable models to make them identifiable. This method helps prevent problems caused by lack of identifiability analysis, which can compromise the success of tasks such as experiment design, parameter estimation, and model-based optimization. The procedure is called STRIKE-GOLDD (STRuctural Identifiability taKen as Extended-Generalized Observability with Lie Derivatives and Decomposition), and it is implemented in a MATLAB toolbox which is available as open source software. The broad applicability of this approach facilitates the analysis of the increasingly complex models used in systems biology and other areas.

  1. Density-dependent microbial turnover improves soil carbon model predictions of long-term litter manipulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgiou, Katerina; Abramoff, Rose; Harte, John; Riley, William; Torn, Margaret

    2017-04-01

    Climatic, atmospheric, and land-use changes all have the potential to alter soil microbial activity via abiotic effects on soil or mediated by changes in plant inputs. Recently, many promising microbial models of soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition have been proposed to advance understanding and prediction of climate and carbon (C) feedbacks. Most of these models, however, exhibit unrealistic oscillatory behavior and SOC insensitivity to long-term changes in C inputs. Here we diagnose the sources of instability in four models that span the range of complexity of these recent microbial models, by sequentially adding complexity to a simple model to include microbial physiology, a mineral sorption isotherm, and enzyme dynamics. We propose a formulation that introduces density-dependence of microbial turnover, which acts to limit population sizes and reduce oscillations. We compare these models to results from 24 long-term C-input field manipulations, including the Detritus Input and Removal Treatment (DIRT) experiments, to show that there are clear metrics that can be used to distinguish and validate the inherent dynamics of each model structure. We find that widely used first-order models and microbial models without density-dependence cannot readily capture the range of long-term responses observed across the DIRT experiments as a direct consequence of their model structures. The proposed formulation improves predictions of long-term C-input changes, and implies greater SOC storage associated with CO2-fertilization-driven increases in C inputs over the coming century compared to common microbial models. Finally, we discuss our findings in the context of improving microbial model behavior for inclusion in Earth System Models.

  2. Numerical Modelling of Structures with Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kahsin Maciej

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The nature of environmental interactions, as well as large dimensions and complex structure of marine offshore objects, make designing, building and operation of these objects a great challenge. This is the reason why a vast majority of investment cases of this type include structural analysis, performed using scaled laboratory models and complemented by extended computer simulations. The present paper focuses on FEM modelling of the offshore wind turbine supporting structure. Then problem is studied using the modal analysis, sensitivity analysis, as well as the design of experiment (DOE and response surface model (RSM methods. The results of modal analysis based simulations were used for assessing the quality of the FEM model against the data measured during the experimental modal analysis of the scaled laboratory model for different support conditions. The sensitivity analysis, in turn, has provided opportunities for assessing the effect of individual FEM model parameters on the dynamic response of the examined supporting structure. The DOE and RSM methods allowed to determine the effect of model parameter changes on the supporting structure response.

  3. The Impact of the 2008 Crisis on BM&FBovespa’s Term Structure of Conditional Correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauro Mastella

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This article uses a BEKK-MGARCH model to identify the historical behavior of the term structure of covariance of the Brazilian BM&FBovespa stock exchange when compared to other exchanges in the American continent. The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of the 2008 crisis on the cohesion of the Brazilian stock exchange when compared to the other exchanges in the sample. To this end, historical series were collected from five different stock market indexes ranging from the pre-crisis period until 2011. The bivariate modeling results indicate the presence of increased cohesion in the stock market indexes during the crisis period and the non-return of this cohesion to pre-crisis levels. They also indicate that, among the pairs analyzed, the pair of indexes IBOV x IPSA are the most appropriate choice for portfolio diversification.

  4. Antibody structural modeling with prediction of immunoglobulin structure (PIGS)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marcatili, Paolo; Olimpieri, Pier Paolo; Chailyan, Anna

    2014-01-01

    Antibodies (or immunoglobulins) are crucial for defending organisms from pathogens, but they are also key players in many medical, diagnostic and biotechnological applications. The ability to predict their structure and the specific residues involved in antigen recognition has several useful...... applications in all of these areas. Over the years, we have developed or collaborated in developing a strategy that enables researchers to predict the 3D structure of antibodies with a very satisfactory accuracy. The strategy is completely automated and extremely fast, requiring only a few minutes (∼10 min...... on average) to build a structural model of an antibody. It is based on the concept of canonical structures of antibody loops and on our understanding of the way light and heavy chains pack together....

  5. Antibody structural modeling with prediction of immunoglobulin structure (PIGS)

    KAUST Repository

    Marcatili, Paolo

    2014-11-06

    © 2014 Nature America, Inc. All rights reserved. Antibodies (or immunoglobulins) are crucial for defending organisms from pathogens, but they are also key players in many medical, diagnostic and biotechnological applications. The ability to predict their structure and the specific residues involved in antigen recognition has several useful applications in all of these areas. Over the years, we have developed or collaborated in developing a strategy that enables researchers to predict the 3D structure of antibodies with a very satisfactory accuracy. The strategy is completely automated and extremely fast, requiring only a few minutes (~10 min on average) to build a structural model of an antibody. It is based on the concept of canonical structures of antibody loops and on our understanding of the way light and heavy chains pack together.

  6. Intelligent structural optimization: Concept, Model and Methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Dagang; Wang, Guangyuan; Peng, Zhang

    2002-01-01

    Structural optimization has many characteristics of Soft Design, and so, it is necessary to apply the experience of human experts to solving the uncertain and multidisciplinary optimization problems in large-scale and complex engineering systems. With the development of artificial intelligence (AI) and computational intelligence (CI), the theory of structural optimization is now developing into the direction of intelligent optimization. In this paper, a concept of Intelligent Structural Optimization (ISO) is proposed. And then, a design process model of ISO is put forward in which each design sub-process model are discussed. Finally, the design methods of ISO are presented

  7. Alternative windpower ownership structures: Financing terms and project costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiser, R.; Kahn, E.

    1996-05-01

    Most utility-scale renewable energy projects in the United States are developed and financed by private renewable energy companies. Electric output is then sold to investor-owned and public utilities under long-term contracts. Limited partnerships, sale/leaseback arrangements, and project-financing have historically been the dominant forms of finance in the windpower industry, with project-finance taking the lead more recently. Although private ownership using project-finance is still the most popular form of windpower development, alternative approaches to ownership and financing are becoming more prevalent. U.S. public and investor-owned electric utilities (IOUs) have begun to participate directly in windpower projects by owning and financing their own facilities rather than purchasing windpower from independent non-utility generators (NUGs) through power purchase agreements (PPAs). In these utility-ownership arrangements, the wind turbine equipment vendor/developer typically designs and constructs a project under a turnkey contract for the eventual project owner (the utility). The utility will also frequently sign an operations and maintenance (O&M) contract with the project developer/equipment vendor. There appear to be a number of reasons for utility involvement in recent and planned U.S. wind projects. One important claim is that utility ownership and self-finance provides substantial cost savings compared to contracting with private NUGs to supply wind-generated power. In this report, we examine that assertion.

  8. Remote sensing approach to structural modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Ghawaby, M.A.

    1989-01-01

    Remote sensing techniques are quite dependable tools in investigating geologic problems, specially those related to structural aspects. The Landsat imagery provides discrimination between rock units, detection of large scale structures as folds and faults, as well as small scale fabric elements such as foliation and banding. In order to fulfill the aim of geologic application of remote sensing, some essential surveying maps might be done from images prior to the structural interpretation: land-use, land-form drainage pattern, lithological unit and structural lineament maps. Afterwards, the field verification should lead to interpretation of a comprehensive structural model of the study area to apply for the target problem. To deduce such a model, there are two ways of analysis the interpreter may go through: the direct and the indirect methods. The direct one is needed in cases where the resources or the targets are controlled by an obvious or exposed structural element or pattern. The indirect way is necessary for areas where the target is governed by a complicated structural pattern. Some case histories of structural modelling methods applied successfully for exploration of radioactive minerals, iron deposits and groundwater aquifers in Egypt are presented. The progress in imagery, enhancement and integration of remote sensing data with the other geophysical and geochemical data allow a geologic interpretation to be carried out which become better than that achieved with either of the individual data sets. 9 refs

  9. Exploring the predictive power of interaction terms in a sophisticated risk equalization model using regression trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Veen, S H C M; van Kleef, R C; van de Ven, W P M M; van Vliet, R C J A

    2018-02-01

    This study explores the predictive power of interaction terms between the risk adjusters in the Dutch risk equalization (RE) model of 2014. Due to the sophistication of this RE-model and the complexity of the associations in the dataset (N = ~16.7 million), there are theoretically more than a million interaction terms. We used regression tree modelling, which has been applied rarely within the field of RE, to identify interaction terms that statistically significantly explain variation in observed expenses that is not already explained by the risk adjusters in this RE-model. The interaction terms identified were used as additional risk adjusters in the RE-model. We found evidence that interaction terms can improve the prediction of expenses overall and for specific groups in the population. However, the prediction of expenses for some other selective groups may deteriorate. Thus, interactions can reduce financial incentives for risk selection for some groups but may increase them for others. Furthermore, because regression trees are not robust, additional criteria are needed to decide which interaction terms should be used in practice. These criteria could be the right incentive structure for risk selection and efficiency or the opinion of medical experts. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Impact damages modeling in laminated composite structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kreculj Dragan D.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Laminated composites have an important application in modern engineering structures. They are characterized by extraordinary properties, such as: high strength and stiffness and lightweight. Nevertheless, a serious obstacle to more widespread use of those materials is their sensitivity to the impact loads. Impacts cause initiation and development of certain types of damages. Failures that occur in laminated composite structures can be intralaminar and interlaminar. To date it was developed a lot of simulation models for impact damages analysis in laminates. Those models can replace real and expensive testing in laminated structures with a certain accuracy. By using specialized software the damage parameters and distributions can be determined (at certain conditions on laminate structures. With performing numerical simulation of impact on composite laminates there are corresponding results valid for the analysis of these structures.

  11. Model tool to describe chemical structures in XML format utilizing structural fragments and chemical ontology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sankar, Punnaivanam; Alain, Krief; Aghila, Gnanasekaran

    2010-05-24

    We have developed a model structure-editing tool, ChemEd, programmed in JAVA, which allows drawing chemical structures on a graphical user interface (GUI) by selecting appropriate structural fragments defined in a fragment library. The terms representing the structural fragments are organized in fragment ontology to provide a conceptual support. ChemEd describes the chemical structure in an XML document (ChemFul) with rich semantics explicitly encoding the details of the chemical bonding, the hybridization status, and the electron environment around each atom. The document can be further processed through suitable algorithms and with the support of external chemical ontologies to generate understandable reports about the functional groups present in the structure and their specific environment.

  12. On the Use of Structural Equation Models in Marketing Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenkamp, J.E.B.M.; Baumgartner, H.

    2000-01-01

    We reflect on the role of structural equation modeling (SEM) in marketing modeling and managerial decision making. We discuss some benefits provided by SEM and alert marketing modelers to several recent developments in SEM in three areas: measurement analysis, analysis of cross-sectional data, and

  13. The geometric phase and the Schwinger term in some models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grosse, H.; Langmann, E.

    1991-01-01

    We discuss quantization of fermions interacting with external fields and observe the occurrence of equivalent as well as inequivalent representations of the canonical anticommutation relations. Implementability of gauge and axial gauge transformations leads to generators which fulfill an algebra of charges with Schwinger term. This term can be written as a cocycle and leads to the boson-fermion correspondence. Transport of a quantum mechanical system along a closed loop of parameter space may yield a geometric mechanical system along a closed loop of parameter space may yield a geometric phase. We discuss models for which nonintegrable phase factors are obtained from the adiabatic parallel transport. After second quantization one obtains, in addition, a Schwinger term. Depending on the type of transformation a subtle relationship between these two obstructions can occur. We indicate finally how we may transport density matrices along closed loops in parameter space. (authors)

  14. The Schwinger term and the Berry phase in simple models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grosse, H.

    1989-01-01

    We discuss quantization of fermions interacting with external fields and observe the occurrence of equivalent as well as inequivalent representations of the canonical anticommutation relations. Implementability of gauge and axial gauge transformations leads to generators which fulfill an algebra of charges with Schwinger term. This term can be written as a cocycle and leads to the boson-fermion correspondence. During an adiabatic transport along closed loops in a parameter space we may pick up a nonintegrable phase factor, usually called the Berry phase. We study the occurrence of such a topological phase in a model and give the parallel transport for density matrices. After second quantization one may pick up both a Berry phase and a Schwinger term. 13 refs. (Author)

  15. Emulating a flexible space structure: Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waites, H. B.; Rice, S. C.; Jones, V. L.

    1988-01-01

    Control Dynamics, in conjunction with Marshall Space Flight Center, has participated in the modeling and testing of Flexible Space Structures. Through the series of configurations tested and the many techniques used for collecting, analyzing, and modeling the data, many valuable insights have been gained and important lessons learned. This paper discusses the background of the Large Space Structure program, Control Dynamics' involvement in testing and modeling of the configurations (especially the Active Control Technique Evaluation for Spacecraft (ACES) configuration), the results from these two processes, and insights gained from this work.

  16. Power mos devices: structures and modelling procedures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rossel, P.; Charitat, G.; Tranduc, H.; Morancho, F.; Moncoqut

    1997-05-01

    In this survey, the historical evolution of power MOS transistor structures is presented and currently used devices are described. General considerations on current and voltage capabilities are discussed and configurations of popular structures are given. A synthesis of different modelling approaches proposed last three years is then presented, including analytical solutions, for basic electrical parameters such as threshold voltage, on-resistance, saturation and quasi-saturation effects, temperature influence and voltage handling capability. The numerical solutions of basic semiconductor devices is then briefly reviewed along with some typical problems which can be solved this way. A compact circuit modelling method is finally explained with emphasis on dynamic behavior modelling

  17. Structured building model reduction toward parallel simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobbs, Justin R. [Cornell University; Hencey, Brondon M. [Cornell University

    2013-08-26

    Building energy model reduction exchanges accuracy for improved simulation speed by reducing the number of dynamical equations. Parallel computing aims to improve simulation times without loss of accuracy but is poorly utilized by contemporary simulators and is inherently limited by inter-processor communication. This paper bridges these disparate techniques to implement efficient parallel building thermal simulation. We begin with a survey of three structured reduction approaches that compares their performance to a leading unstructured method. We then use structured model reduction to find thermal clusters in the building energy model and allocate processing resources. Experimental results demonstrate faster simulation and low error without any interprocessor communication.

  18. PSA modeling of long-term accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgescu, Gabriel; Corenwinder, Francois; Lanore, Jeanne-Marie

    2014-01-01

    In the context of the extension of PSA scope to include external hazards, in France, both operator (EDF) and IRSN work for the improvement of methods to better take into account in the PSA the accident sequences induced by initiators which affect a whole site containing several nuclear units (reactors, fuel pools,...). These methodological improvements represent an essential prerequisite for the development of external hazards PSA. However, it has to be noted that in French PSA, even before Fukushima, long term accident sequences were taken into account: many insight were therefore used, as complementary information, to enhance the safety level of the plants. IRSN proposed an external events PSA development program. One of the first steps of the program is the development of methods to model in the PSA the long term accident sequences, based on the experience gained. At short term IRSN intends to enhance the modeling of the 'long term' accident sequences induced by the loss of the heat sink or/and the loss of external power supply. The experience gained by IRSN and EDF from the development of several probabilistic studies treating long term accident sequences shows that the simple extension of the mission time of the mitigation systems from 24 hours to longer times is not sufficient to realistically quantify the risk and to obtain a correct ranking of the risk contributions and that treatment of recoveries is also necessary. IRSN intends to develop a generic study which can be used as a general methodology for the assessment of the long term accident sequences, mainly generated by external hazards and their combinations. This first attempt to develop this generic study allowed identifying some aspects, which may be hazard (or combinations of hazards) or related to initial boundary conditions, which should be taken into account for further developments. (authors)

  19. A Multi-Model Reduction Technique for Optimization of Coupled Structural-Acoustic Problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Creixell Mediante, Ester; Jensen, Jakob Søndergaard; Brunskog, Jonas

    2016-01-01

    Finite Element models of structural-acoustic coupled systems can become very large for complex structures with multiple connected parts. Optimization of the performance of the structure based on harmonic analysis of the system requires solving the coupled problem iteratively and for several frequ....... Several methods are compared in terms of accuracy and size of the reduced systems for optimization of simple models....

  20. Modeling and control of flexible space structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wie, B.; Bryson, A. E., Jr.

    1981-01-01

    The effects of actuator and sensor locations on transfer function zeros are investigated, using uniform bars and beams as generic models of flexible space structures. It is shown how finite element codes may be used directly to calculate transfer function zeros. The impulse response predicted by finite-dimensional models is compared with the exact impulse response predicted by the infinite dimensional models. It is shown that some flexible structures behave as if there were a direct transmission between actuator and sensor (equal numbers of zeros and poles in the transfer function). Finally, natural damping models for a vibrating beam are investigated since natural damping has a strong influence on the appropriate active control logic for a flexible structure.

  1. Feature Extraction for Structural Dynamics Model Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farrar, Charles [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nishio, Mayuko [Yokohama University; Hemez, Francois [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Stull, Chris [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Park, Gyuhae [Chonnam Univesity; Cornwell, Phil [Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology; Figueiredo, Eloi [Universidade Lusófona; Luscher, D. J. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Worden, Keith [University of Sheffield

    2016-01-13

    As structural dynamics becomes increasingly non-modal, stochastic and nonlinear, finite element model-updating technology must adopt the broader notions of model validation and uncertainty quantification. For example, particular re-sampling procedures must be implemented to propagate uncertainty through a forward calculation, and non-modal features must be defined to analyze nonlinear data sets. The latter topic is the focus of this report, but first, some more general comments regarding the concept of model validation will be discussed.

  2. Automated protein structure modeling with SWISS-MODEL Workspace and the Protein Model Portal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bordoli, Lorenza; Schwede, Torsten

    2012-01-01

    Comparative protein structure modeling is a computational approach to build three-dimensional structural models for proteins using experimental structures of related protein family members as templates. Regular blind assessments of modeling accuracy have demonstrated that comparative protein structure modeling is currently the most reliable technique to model protein structures. Homology models are often sufficiently accurate to substitute for experimental structures in a wide variety of applications. Since the usefulness of a model for specific application is determined by its accuracy, model quality estimation is an essential component of protein structure prediction. Comparative protein modeling has become a routine approach in many areas of life science research since fully automated modeling systems allow also nonexperts to build reliable models. In this chapter, we describe practical approaches for automated protein structure modeling with SWISS-MODEL Workspace and the Protein Model Portal.

  3. Maximal monotone model with delay term of convolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claude-Henri Lamarque

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Mechanical models are governed either by partial differential equations with boundary conditions and initial conditions (e.g., in the frame of continuum mechanics or by ordinary differential equations (e.g., after discretization via Galerkin procedure or directly from the model description with the initial conditions. In order to study dynamical behavior of mechanical systems with a finite number of degrees of freedom including nonsmooth terms (e.g., friction, we consider here problems governed by differential inclusions. To describe effects of particular constitutive laws, we add a delay term. In contrast to previous papers, we introduce delay via a Volterra kernel. We provide existence and uniqueness results by using an Euler implicit numerical scheme; then convergence with its order is established. A few numerical examples are given.

  4. Short-Term City Electric Load Forecasting with Considering Temperature Effects: An Improved ARIMAX Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herui Cui

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Short-term electric load is significantly affected by weather, especially the temperature effects in summer. External factors can result in mutation structures in load data. Under the influence of the external temperature factors, city electric load cannot be easily forecasted as usual. This research analyzes the relationship between electricity load and daily temperature in city. An improved ARIMAX model is proposed in this paper to deal with the mutation data structures. It is found that information amount of the improved ARIMAX model is smaller than that of the classic method and its relative error is less than AR, ARMA and Sigmoid-Function ANN models. The forecasting results are more accurately fitted. This improved model is highly valuable when dealing with mutation data structure in the field of load forecasting. And it is also an effective technique in forecasting electric load with temperature effects.

  5. Aspects if stochastic models for short-term hydropower scheduling and bidding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belsnes, Michael Martin [Sintef Energy, Trondheim (Norway); Follestad, Turid [Sintef Energy, Trondheim (Norway); Wolfgang, Ove [Sintef Energy, Trondheim (Norway); Fosso, Olav B. [Dep. of electric power engineering NTNU, Trondheim (Norway)

    2012-07-01

    This report discusses challenges met when turning from deterministic to stochastic decision support models for short-term hydropower scheduling and bidding. The report describes characteristics of the short-term scheduling and bidding problem, different market and bidding strategies, and how a stochastic optimization model can be formulated. A review of approaches for stochastic short-term modelling and stochastic modelling for the input variables inflow and market prices is given. The report discusses methods for approximating the predictive distribution of uncertain variables by scenario trees. Benefits of using a stochastic over a deterministic model are illustrated by a case study, where increased profit is obtained to a varying degree depending on the reservoir filling and price structure. Finally, an approach for assessing the effect of using a size restricted scenario tree to approximate the predictive distribution for stochastic input variables is described. The report is a summary of the findings of Work package 1 of the research project #Left Double Quotation Mark#Optimal short-term scheduling of wind and hydro resources#Right Double Quotation Mark#. The project aims at developing a prototype for an operational stochastic short-term scheduling model. Based on the investigations summarized in the report, it is concluded that using a deterministic equivalent formulation of the stochastic optimization problem is convenient and sufficient for obtaining a working prototype. (author)

  6. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  7. Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

  8. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Lima

    Full Text Available Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors. Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  9. Geometrical aspects of operator ordering terms in gauge invariant quantum models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houston, P.J.

    1990-01-01

    Finite-dimensional quantum models with both boson and fermion degrees of freedom, and which have a gauge invariance, are studied here as simple versions of gauge invariant quantum field theories. The configuration space of these finite-dimensional models has the structure of a principal fibre bundle and has defined on it a metric which is invariant under the action of the bundle or gauge group. When the gauge-dependent degrees of freedom are removed, thereby defining the quantum models on the base of the principal fibre bundle, extra operator ordering terms arise. By making use of dimensional reduction methods in removing the gauge dependence, expressions are obtained here for the operator ordering terms which show clearly their dependence on the geometry of the principal fibre bundle structure. (author)

  10. Optimization of mathematical models for soil structure interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vallenas, J.M.; Wong, C.K.; Wong, D.L.

    1993-01-01

    Accounting for soil-structure interaction in the design and analysis of major structures for DOE facilities can involve significant costs in terms of modeling and computer time. Using computer programs like SASSI for modeling major structures, especially buried structures, requires the use of models with a large number of soil-structure interaction nodes. The computer time requirements (and costs) increase as a function of the number of interaction nodes to the third power. The added computer and labor cost for data manipulation and post-processing can further increase the total cost. This paper provides a methodology to significantly reduce the number of interaction nodes. This is achieved by selectively increasing the thickness of soil layers modeled based on the need for the mathematical model to capture as input only those frequencies that can actually be transmitted by the soil media. The authors have rarely found that a model needs to capture frequencies as high as 33 Hz. Typically coarser meshes (and a lesser number of interaction nodes) are adequate

  11. A Simple Hybrid Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suseelatha Annamareddi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes a simple hybrid model to forecast the electrical load data based on the wavelet transform technique and double exponential smoothing. The historical noisy load series data is decomposed into deterministic and fluctuation components using suitable wavelet coefficient thresholds and wavelet reconstruction method. The variation characteristics of the resulting series are analyzed to arrive at reasonable thresholds that yield good denoising results. The constitutive series are then forecasted using appropriate exponential adaptive smoothing models. A case study performed on California energy market data demonstrates that the proposed method can offer high forecasting precision for very short-term forecasts, considering a time horizon of two weeks.

  12. Short-Term Memory and Its Biophysical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Zhang, Kai; Tang, Xiao-wei

    1996-12-01

    The capacity of short-term memory has been studied using an integrate-and-fire neuronal network model. It is found that the storage of events depend on the manner of the correlation between the events, and the capacity is dominated by the value of after-depolarization potential. There is a monotonic increasing relationship between the value of after-depolarization potential and the memory numbers. The biophysics relevance of the network model is discussed and different kinds of the information processes are studied too.

  13. Modeling flood events for long-term stability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schruben, T.; Portillo, R.

    1985-01-01

    The primary objective for the disposal of uranium mill tailings in the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project is isolation and stabilization to prevent their misuse by man and dispersal by natural forces such as wind, rain, and flood waters (40 CFR-192). Stabilization of sites that are located in or near flood plains presents unique problems in design for long-term performance. This paper discusses the process involved with the selection and hydrologic modeling of the design flood event; and hydraulic modeling with geomorphic considerations of the design flood event. The Gunnison, Colorado, and Riverton, Wyoming, sites will be used as examples in describing the process

  14. D-term Spectroscopy in Realistic Heterotic-String Models

    CERN Document Server

    Dedes, Athanasios

    2000-01-01

    The emergence of free fermionic string models with solely the MSSM charged spectrum below the string scale provides further evidence to the assertion that the true string vacuum is connected to the Z_2 x Z_2 orbifold in the vicinity of the free fermionic point in the Narain moduli space. An important property of the Z_2 x Z_2 orbifold is the cyclic permutation symmetry between the three twisted sectors. If preserved in the three generations models the cyclic permutation symmetry results in a family universal anomalous U(1)_A, which is instrumental in explaining squark degeneracy, provided that the dominant component of supersymmetry breaking arises from the U(1)_A D-term. Interestingly, the contribution of the family--universal D_A-term to the squark masses may be intra-family non-universal, and may differ from the usual (universal) boundary conditions assumed in the MSSM. We contemplate how D_A--term spectroscopy may be instrumental in studying superstring models irrespective of our ignorance of the details ...

  15. Elasto-viscoplastic finite element model for prestressed concrete structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prates Junior, N.P.; Silva, C.S.B.; Campos Filho, A.; Gastal, F.P.S.L.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents a computational model, based on the finite element method, for the study of reinforced and prestressed concrete structures under plane stress states. It comprehends short and long-term loading situations, where creep and shrinkage in concrete and steel relaxation are considered. Elasto-viscoplastic constitutive models are used to describe the behavior of the materials. The model includes prestressing and no prestressing reinforcement, on situation with pre- and post-tension with and without bond. A set of prestressed concrete slab elements were tested under instantaneous and long-term loading. The experimental data for deflections, deformations and ultimate strength are used to compare and validate the results obtained through the proposed model. (author). 11 refs., 5 figs

  16. On modeling of structured multiphase mixtures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobran, F.

    1987-01-01

    The usual modeling of multiphase mixtures involves a set of conservation and balance equations of mass, momentum, energy and entropy (the basic set) constructed by an averaging procedure or postulated. The averaged models are constructed by averaging, over space or time segments, the local macroscopic field equations of each phase, whereas the postulated models are usually motivated by the single phase multicomponent mixture models. In both situations, the resulting equations yield superimposed continua models and are closed by the constitutive equations which place restrictions on the possible material response during the motion and phase change. In modeling the structured multiphase mixtures, the modeling of intrinsic motion of grains or particles is accomplished by adjoining to the basic set of field equations the additional balance equations, thereby placing restrictions on the motion of phases only within the imposed extrinsic and intrinsic sources. The use of the additional balance equations has been primarily advocated in the postulatory theories of multiphase mixtures and are usually derived through very special assumptions of the material deformation. Nevertheless, the resulting mixture models can predict a wide variety of complex phenomena such as the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion in granular media, Rayleigh bubble equation, wave dispersion and dilatancy. Fundamental to the construction of structured models of multiphase mixtures are the problems pertaining to the existence and number of additional balance equations to model the structural characteristics of a mixture. Utilizing a volume averaging procedure it is possible not only to derive the basic set of field equation discussed above, but also a very general set of additional balance equations for modeling of structural properties of the mixture

  17. A size-structured model of bacterial growth and reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellermeyer, S F; Pilyugin, S S

    2012-01-01

    We consider a size-structured bacterial population model in which the rate of cell growth is both size- and time-dependent and the average per capita reproduction rate is specified as a model parameter. It is shown that the model admits classical solutions. The population-level and distribution-level behaviours of these solutions are then determined in terms of the model parameters. The distribution-level behaviour is found to be different from that found in similar models of bacterial population dynamics. Rather than convergence to a stable size distribution, we find that size distributions repeat in cycles. This phenomenon is observed in similar models only under special assumptions on the functional form of the size-dependent growth rate factor. Our main results are illustrated with examples, and we also provide an introductory study of the bacterial growth in a chemostat within the framework of our model.

  18. Design and Modeling of Structural Joints in Precast Concrete Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Jesper Harrild

    and in the onsite construction speed. The challenges appear in the on-site assembly phase, where structural integrity has to be ensured by in-situ cast connections in narrow zones. These connections are essential for the overall structural behavior and for this reason, strong and ductile connections...... is the orientation of the U-bar loops and the use of a double T-headed rebar in the overlapping area of the Ubars. The investigation covers several independent research topics, which in combination provides a broad knowledge of the behavior of keyed shear connections. As the first topic, the structural behavior...... the loop connection in such a way, that the tensile capacity is governed by yielding of the U-bars and not by a brittle failure of the grout. This is important in order to obtain a ductile response when the connection is loaded in shear. The main focus of the thesis is test and modeling of keyed shear...

  19. The WITCH Model. Structure, Baseline, Solutions.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bosetti, V.; Massetti, E.; Tavoni, M.

    2007-07-01

    WITCH - World Induced Technical Change Hybrid - is a regionally disaggregated hard link hybrid global model with a neoclassical optimal growth structure (top down) and an energy input detail (bottom up). The model endogenously accounts for technological change, both through learning curves affecting prices of new vintages of capital and through R and D investments. The model features the main economic and environmental policies in each world region as the outcome of a dynamic game. WITCH belongs to the class of Integrated Assessment Models as it possesses a climate module that feeds climate changes back into the economy. In this paper we provide a thorough discussion of the model structure and baseline projections. We report detailed information on the evolution of energy demand, technology and CO2 emissions. Finally, we explicitly quantifiy the role of free riding in determining the emissions scenarios. (auth)

  20. Long-term power generation expansion planning with short-term demand response: Model, algorithms, implementation, and electricity policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohmann, Timo

    Electric sector models are powerful tools that guide policy makers and stakeholders. Long-term power generation expansion planning models are a prominent example and determine a capacity expansion for an existing power system over a long planning horizon. With the changes in the power industry away from monopolies and regulation, the focus of these models has shifted to competing electric companies maximizing their profit in a deregulated electricity market. In recent years, consumers have started to participate in demand response programs, actively influencing electricity load and price in the power system. We introduce a model that features investment and retirement decisions over a long planning horizon of more than 20 years, as well as an hourly representation of day-ahead electricity markets in which sellers of electricity face buyers. This combination makes our model both unique and challenging to solve. Decomposition algorithms, and especially Benders decomposition, can exploit the model structure. We present a novel method that can be seen as an alternative to generalized Benders decomposition and relies on dynamic linear overestimation. We prove its finite convergence and present computational results, demonstrating its superiority over traditional approaches. In certain special cases of our model, all necessary solution values in the decomposition algorithms can be directly calculated and solving mathematical programming problems becomes entirely obsolete. This leads to highly efficient algorithms that drastically outperform their programming problem-based counterparts. Furthermore, we discuss the implementation of all tailored algorithms and the challenges from a modeling software developer's standpoint, providing an insider's look into the modeling language GAMS. Finally, we apply our model to the Texas power system and design two electricity policies motivated by the U.S. Environment Protection Agency's recently proposed CO2 emissions targets for the

  1. A Neural Network Model of the Structure and Dynamics of Human Personality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Read, Stephen J.; Monroe, Brian M.; Brownstein, Aaron L.; Yang, Yu; Chopra, Gurveen; Miller, Lynn C.

    2010-01-01

    We present a neural network model that aims to bridge the historical gap between dynamic and structural approaches to personality. The model integrates work on the structure of the trait lexicon, the neurobiology of personality, temperament, goal-based models of personality, and an evolutionary analysis of motives. It is organized in terms of two…

  2. Galactic models with variable spiral structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James, R.A.; Sellwood, J.A.

    1978-01-01

    A series of three-dimensional computer simulations of disc galaxies has been run in which the self-consistent potential of the disc stars is supplemented by that arising from a small uniform Population II sphere. The models show variable spiral structure, which is more pronounced for thin discs. In addition, the thin discs form weak bars. In one case variable spiral structure associated with this bar has been seen. The relaxed discs are cool outside resonance regions. (author)

  3. Outlier Detection in Structural Time Series Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marczak, Martyna; Proietti, Tommaso

    investigate via Monte Carlo simulations how this approach performs for detecting additive outliers and level shifts in the analysis of nonstationary seasonal time series. The reference model is the basic structural model, featuring a local linear trend, possibly integrated of order two, stochastic seasonality......Structural change affects the estimation of economic signals, like the underlying growth rate or the seasonally adjusted series. An important issue, which has attracted a great deal of attention also in the seasonal adjustment literature, is its detection by an expert procedure. The general......–to–specific approach to the detection of structural change, currently implemented in Autometrics via indicator saturation, has proven to be both practical and effective in the context of stationary dynamic regression models and unit–root autoregressions. By focusing on impulse– and step–indicator saturation, we...

  4. An integrative computational modelling of music structure apprehension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lartillot, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    , the computational model, by virtue of its generality, extensiveness and operationality, is suggested as a blueprint for the establishment of cognitively validated model of music structure apprehension. Available as a Matlab module, it can be used for practical musicological uses.......An objectivization of music analysis requires a detailed formalization of the underlying principles and methods. The formalization of the most elementary structural processes is hindered by the complexity of music, both in terms of profusions of entities (such as notes) and of tight interactions...... between a large number of dimensions. Computational modeling would enable systematic and exhaustive tests on sizeable pieces of music, yet current researches cover particular musical dimensions with limited success. The aim of this research is to conceive a computational modeling of music analysis...

  5. Model for low temperature oxidation during long term interim storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Desgranges, Clara; Bertrand, Nathalie; Gauvain, Danielle; Terlain, Anne [Service de la Corrosion et du Comportement des Materiaux dans leur Environnement, CEA/Saclay - 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Poquillon, Dominique; Monceau, Daniel [CIRIMAT UMR 5085, ENSIACET-INPT, 31077 Toulouse Cedex 4 (France)

    2004-07-01

    For high-level nuclear waste containers in long-term interim storage, dry oxidation will be the first and the main degradation mode during about one century. The metal lost by dry oxidation over such a long period must be evaluated with a good reliability. To achieve this goal, modelling of the oxide scale growth is necessary and this is the aim of the dry oxidation studies performed in the frame of the COCON program. An advanced model based on the description of elementary mechanisms involved in scale growth at low temperatures, like partial interfacial control of the oxidation kinetics and/or grain boundary diffusion, is developed in order to increase the reliability of the long term extrapolations deduced from basic models developed from short time experiments. Since only few experimental data on dry oxidation are available in the temperature range of interest, experiments have also been performed to evaluate the relevant input parameters for models like grain size of oxide scale, considering iron as simplified material. (authors)

  6. Model for low temperature oxidation during long term interim storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desgranges, Clara; Bertrand, Nathalie; Gauvain, Danielle; Terlain, Anne; Poquillon, Dominique; Monceau, Daniel

    2004-01-01

    For high-level nuclear waste containers in long-term interim storage, dry oxidation will be the first and the main degradation mode during about one century. The metal lost by dry oxidation over such a long period must be evaluated with a good reliability. To achieve this goal, modelling of the oxide scale growth is necessary and this is the aim of the dry oxidation studies performed in the frame of the COCON program. An advanced model based on the description of elementary mechanisms involved in scale growth at low temperatures, like partial interfacial control of the oxidation kinetics and/or grain boundary diffusion, is developed in order to increase the reliability of the long term extrapolations deduced from basic models developed from short time experiments. Since only few experimental data on dry oxidation are available in the temperature range of interest, experiments have also been performed to evaluate the relevant input parameters for models like grain size of oxide scale, considering iron as simplified material. (authors)

  7. Statistical Analysis and Modelling of Olkiluoto Structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hellae, P.; Vaittinen, T.; Saksa, P.; Nummela, J.

    2004-11-01

    Posiva Oy is carrying out investigations for the disposal of the spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in SW Finland. The investigations have focused on the central part of the island. The layout design of the entire repository requires characterization of notably larger areas and must rely at least at the current stage on borehole information from a rather sparse network and on the geophysical soundings providing information outside and between the holes. In this work, the structural data according to the current version of the Olkiluoto bedrock model is analyzed. The bedrock model relies much on the borehole data although results of the seismic surveys and, for example, pumping tests are used in determining the orientation and continuation of the structures. Especially in the analysis, questions related to the frequency of structures and size of the structures are discussed. The structures observed in the boreholes are mainly dipping gently to the southeast. About 9 % of the sample length belongs to structures. The proportion is higher in the upper parts of the rock. The number of fracture and crushed zones seems not to depend greatly on the depth, whereas the hydraulic features concentrate on the depth range above -100 m. Below level -300 m, the hydraulic conductivity occurs in connection of fractured zones. Especially the hydraulic features, but also fracture and crushed zones often occur in groups. The frequency of the structure (area of structures per total volume) is estimated to be of the order of 1/100m. The size of the local structures was estimated by calculating the intersection of the zone to the nearest borehole where the zone has not been detected. Stochastic models using the Fracman software by Golder Associates were generated based on the bedrock model data complemented with the magnetic ground survey data. The seismic surveys (from boreholes KR5, KR13, KR14, and KR19) were used as alternative input data. The generated models were tested by

  8. Exploring Social Structures in Extended Team Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zahedi, Mansooreh; Ali Babar, Muhammad

    2013-01-01

    Extended Team Model (ETM) as a type of offshore outsourcing is increasingly becoming popular mode of Global Software Development (GSD). There is little knowledge about the social structures in ETM and their impact on collaboration. Within a large interdisciplinary project to develop the next...... generation of GSD technologies, we are exploring the role of social structures to support collaboration. This paper reports some details of our research design and initial findings about the mechanisms to support social structures and their impact on collaboration in an ETM....

  9. How diking affects the longer-term structure and evolution of divergent plate boundaries

    KAUST Repository

    Trippanera, Daniele

    2015-04-01

    Recurrent diking episodes along divergent plate boundaries, as at Dabbahu (2005, Afar) or at Bardarbunga (2014, Iceland) , highlight the possibility to have m-wide opening in a short time (days to weeks). This suggests a prominent role of magma enhancing transient plate separations. However, the role of diking on a longer term (> 102 years) and its influence on the structure and the evolution of a divergent plate boundary is still poorly investigated. Here we use field surveys along the oceanic Icelandic and continental Ethiopian plate boundaries, along five eruptive fissures and four rift segments. Field observations have also been integrated with analogue and numerical models of dike emplacement to better understand the effect of dike emplacement at depth and at the surface. Our results show that the dike-fed eruptive fissures are systematically associated with graben structures formed by inward dipping normal faults having throws up to 10 m and commonly propagating downward. Moreover, rift segments (i.e. mature rift zones), despite any asymmetry and repetition, are characterized by the same features as the eruptive fissures, the only difference lying in the larger size (higher fault throws, up to 40 m, and wider deformation zones). Analogue and numerical models of dike intrusion confirm that all the structural features observed along the rift segments may be dike-induced; these features include downward propagating normal faults bordering graben structures, contraction at the base of the hanging walls of the faults and upward propagating faults. Simple calculations based on the deeper structure of the eroded rift segments in eastern and western Iceland also suggest that all the fault slip in the active rift segments may result from diking. These results suggest that the overall deformation pattern of eruptive fissures and rift segments may be explained only by dike emplacement. In a magmatic rift, the regional tectonic stress may rarely be high enough to be

  10. Evolving the structure of hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    won, K. J.; Prugel-Bennett, A.; Krogh, A.

    2006-01-01

    A genetic algorithm (GA) is proposed for finding the structure of hidden Markov Models (HMMs) used for biological sequence analysis. The GA is designed to preserve biologically meaningful building blocks. The search through the space of HMM structures is combined with optimization of the emission...... and transition probabilities using the classic Baum-Welch algorithm. The system is tested on the problem of finding the promoter and coding region of C. jejuni. The resulting HMM has a superior discrimination ability to a handcrafted model that has been published in the literature....

  11. Principles and practice of structural equation modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Kline, Rex B

    2015-01-01

    Emphasizing concepts and rationale over mathematical minutiae, this is the most widely used, complete, and accessible structural equation modeling (SEM) text. Continuing the tradition of using real data examples from a variety of disciplines, the significantly revised fourth edition incorporates recent developments such as Pearl's graphing theory and the structural causal model (SCM), measurement invariance, and more. Readers gain a comprehensive understanding of all phases of SEM, from data collection and screening to the interpretation and reporting of the results. Learning is enhanced by ex

  12. D term and the structure of pointlike and composed spin-0 particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Jonathan; Schweitzer, Peter

    2017-12-01

    This work deals with form factors of the energy-momentum tensor (EMT) of spin-0 particles and the unknown particle property D term related to the EMT, and it is divided into three parts. The first part explores free, weakly and strongly interacting theories to study EMT form factors with the following findings. (i) The free Klein-Gordon theory predicts for the D term D =-1 . (ii) Even infinitesimally small interactions can drastically impact D . (iii) In strongly interacting theories one can encounter large negative D though notable exceptions exist, which include Goldstone bosons of chiral symmetry breaking. (iv) Contrary to common belief one cannot arbitrarily add "total derivatives" to the EMT. Rather the EMT must be defined in an unambiguous way. The second part deals with the interpretation of the information content of EMT form factors in terms of 3D densities with the following results. (i) The 3D-density formalism is internally consistent. (ii) The description is subject to relativistic corrections but those are acceptably small in phenomenologically relevant situations including nucleons and nuclei. (iii) The free-field result D =-1 persists when a spin-0 boson is not pointlike but "heuristically given some internal structure." The third part investigates the question of whether such "giving of an extended structure" can be implemented dynamically, and it has the following insights. (i) We construct a consistent microscopic theory which, in a certain parametric limit, interpolates between extended and pointlike solutions. (ii) This theory is exactly solvable which is rare in 3 +1 dimensions, admits nontopological solitons of Q -ball type, and has a Gaussian field amplitude. (iii) The interaction of this theory belongs to a class of logarithmic potentials which were discussed in the literature, albeit in different contexts including beyond-standard-model phenomenology, cosmology, and Higgs physics.

  13. Structure, function, and behaviour of computational models in systems biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knüpfer, Christian; Beckstein, Clemens; Dittrich, Peter; Le Novère, Nicolas

    2013-05-31

    Systems Biology develops computational models in order to understand biological phenomena. The increasing number and complexity of such "bio-models" necessitate computer support for the overall modelling task. Computer-aided modelling has to be based on a formal semantic description of bio-models. But, even if computational bio-models themselves are represented precisely in terms of mathematical expressions their full meaning is not yet formally specified and only described in natural language. We present a conceptual framework - the meaning facets - which can be used to rigorously specify the semantics of bio-models. A bio-model has a dual interpretation: On the one hand it is a mathematical expression which can be used in computational simulations (intrinsic meaning). On the other hand the model is related to the biological reality (extrinsic meaning). We show that in both cases this interpretation should be performed from three perspectives: the meaning of the model's components (structure), the meaning of the model's intended use (function), and the meaning of the model's dynamics (behaviour). In order to demonstrate the strengths of the meaning facets framework we apply it to two semantically related models of the cell cycle. Thereby, we make use of existing approaches for computer representation of bio-models as much as possible and sketch the missing pieces. The meaning facets framework provides a systematic in-depth approach to the semantics of bio-models. It can serve two important purposes: First, it specifies and structures the information which biologists have to take into account if they build, use and exchange models. Secondly, because it can be formalised, the framework is a solid foundation for any sort of computer support in bio-modelling. The proposed conceptual framework establishes a new methodology for modelling in Systems Biology and constitutes a basis for computer-aided collaborative research.

  14. Long-term structural retinal changes in patients with optic neuritis related to multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Maria Rene; Roar, Malte; Sejbaek, Tobias

    2017-01-01

    fiber layer (RNFL) thickness (56 vs 67 μm, P=0.01). In an age- and sex-adjusted logistic regression model, lower inferior and temporal RNFL were associated with a higher risk of ON (odds ratio [OR] 1.56 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.01-2.41] and OR 1.74 [95% CI 1.10-2.77] per 10 μm decrement in RNFL......PURPOSE: To evaluate the long-term structural and functional outcome in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) with and without a history of optic neuritis (ON). METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study of 82 patients diagnosed with MS between 2000 and 2006 from a tertiary hospital center...

  15. A Structural Modeling Approach to a Multilevel Random Coefficients Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovine, Michael J.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

    2000-01-01

    Presents a method for estimating the random coefficients model using covariance structure modeling and allowing one to estimate both fixed and random effects. The method is applied to real and simulated data, including marriage data from J. Belsky and M. Rovine (1990). (SLD)

  16. Comparisons of Multilevel Modeling and Structural Equation Modeling Approaches to Actor-Partner Interdependence Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Sehee; Kim, Soyoung

    2018-01-01

    There are basically two modeling approaches applicable to analyzing an actor-partner interdependence model: the multilevel modeling (hierarchical linear model) and the structural equation modeling. This article explains how to use these two models in analyzing an actor-partner interdependence model and how these two approaches work differently. As an empirical example, marital conflict data were used to analyze an actor-partner interdependence model. The multilevel modeling and the structural equation modeling produced virtually identical estimates for a basic model. However, the structural equation modeling approach allowed more realistic assumptions on measurement errors and factor loadings, rendering better model fit indices.

  17. A Constrained Standard Model: Effects of Fayet-Iliopoulos Terms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbieri, Riccardo; Hall, Lawrence J.; Nomura, Yasunori

    2001-01-01

    In (1)the one Higgs doublet standard model was obtained by an orbifold projection of a 5D supersymmetric theory in an essentially unique way, resulting in a prediction for the Higgs mass m H = 127 +- 8 GeV and for the compactification scale 1/R = 370 +- 70 GeV. The dominant one loop contribution to the Higgs potential was found to be finite, while the above uncertainties arose from quadratically divergent brane Z factors and from other higher loop contributions. In (3), a quadratically divergent Fayet-Iliopoulos term was found at one loop in this theory. We show that the resulting uncertainties in the predictions for the Higgs boson mass and the compactification scale are small, about 25percent of the uncertainties quoted above, and hence do not affect the original predictions. However, a tree level brane Fayet-Iliopoulos term could, if large enough, modify these predictions, especially for 1/R.

  18. A conceptual framework for a long-term economic model for the treatment of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, Balázs; Setyawan, Juliana; Coghill, David; Soroncz-Szabó, Tamás; Kaló, Zoltán; Doshi, Jalpa A

    2017-06-01

    Models incorporating long-term outcomes (LTOs) are not available to assess the health economic impact of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Develop a conceptual modelling framework capable of assessing long-term economic impact of ADHD therapies. Literature was reviewed; a conceptual structure for the long-term model was outlined with attention to disease characteristics and potential impact of treatment strategies. The proposed model has four layers: i) multi-state short-term framework to differentiate between ADHD treatments; ii) multiple states being merged into three core health states associated with LTOs; iii) series of sub-models in which particular LTOs are depicted; iv) outcomes collected to be either used directly for economic analyses or translated into other relevant measures. This conceptual model provides a framework to assess relationships between short- and long-term outcomes of the disease and its treatment, and to estimate the economic impact of ADHD treatments throughout the course of the disease.

  19. Modelling and analysing oriented fibrous structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rantala, M; Lassas, M; Siltanen, S; Sampo, J; Takalo, J; Timonen, J

    2014-01-01

    A mathematical model for fibrous structures using a direction dependent scaling law is presented. The orientation of fibrous nets (e.g. paper) is analysed with a method based on the curvelet transform. The curvelet-based orientation analysis has been tested successfully on real data from paper samples: the major directions of fibrefibre orientation can apparently be recovered. Similar results are achieved in tests on data simulated by the new model, allowing a comparison with ground truth

  20. Modeling accelerator structures and RF components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, K., Ng, C.K.; Herrmannsfeldt, W.B.

    1993-03-01

    Computer modeling has become an integral part of the design and analysis of accelerator structures RF components. Sophisticated 3D codes, powerful workstations and timely theory support all contributed to this development. We will describe our modeling experience with these resources and discuss their impact on ongoing work at SLAC. Specific examples from R ampersand D on a future linear collide and a proposed e + e - storage ring will be included

  1. Long-term structural retinal changes in patients with optic neuritis related to multiple sclerosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Maria Rene; Roar, Malte; Sejbaek, Tobias; Illes, Zsolt; Grauslund, Jakob

    2017-01-01

    Purpose To evaluate the long-term structural and functional outcome in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) with and without a history of optic neuritis (ON). Methods This was a cross-sectional study of 82 patients diagnosed with MS between 2000 and 2006 from a tertiary hospital center in Denmark. Patients gave a self-reported history of ON, and functional (visual acuity and color vision) and structural (spectra domain optical coherence tomography) markers of vision were tested. Results Median age and MS duration at the time of the clinical examination were 49.9 years (range 30.7–72.6 years) and 13 years (range 9–15 years), respectively. ON was not associated with impairment of visual acuity or color vision. Twenty-three patients had a history of ON in at least one eye. Compared to non-affected patients, these had a lower inferior (109 vs 113 μm, P=0.04) and temporal retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness (56 vs 67 μm, P=0.01). In an age- and sex-adjusted logistic regression model, lower inferior and temporal RNFL were associated with a higher risk of ON (odds ratio [OR] 1.56 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.01–2.41] and OR 1.74 [95% CI 1.10–2.77] per 10 μm decrement in RNFL thickness, respectively). Twenty patients had a history of ON in one eye. Compared to the non-affected eye, this eye had a lower RNFL (109 vs 115 μm, P=0.04) and a higher central retinal thickness/mean RNFL ratio (2.7 vs 2.4, P=0.04). Conclusion Although patients with long-term MS and a previous history of ON did not have any functional loss of vision, structural neurodegeneration could be demonstrated in the affected eye. PMID:28860702

  2. Long-term structural retinal changes in patients with optic neuritis related to multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Maria Rene; Roar, Malte; Sejbaek, Tobias; Illes, Zsolt; Grauslund, Jakob

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate the long-term structural and functional outcome in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) with and without a history of optic neuritis (ON). This was a cross-sectional study of 82 patients diagnosed with MS between 2000 and 2006 from a tertiary hospital center in Denmark. Patients gave a self-reported history of ON, and functional (visual acuity and color vision) and structural (spectra domain optical coherence tomography) markers of vision were tested. Median age and MS duration at the time of the clinical examination were 49.9 years (range 30.7-72.6 years) and 13 years (range 9-15 years), respectively. ON was not associated with impairment of visual acuity or color vision. Twenty-three patients had a history of ON in at least one eye. Compared to non-affected patients, these had a lower inferior (109 vs 113 μm, P =0.04) and temporal retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness (56 vs 67 μm, P =0.01). In an age- and sex-adjusted logistic regression model, lower inferior and temporal RNFL were associated with a higher risk of ON (odds ratio [OR] 1.56 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.01-2.41] and OR 1.74 [95% CI 1.10-2.77] per 10 μm decrement in RNFL thickness, respectively). Twenty patients had a history of ON in one eye. Compared to the non-affected eye, this eye had a lower RNFL (109 vs 115 μm, P =0.04) and a higher central retinal thickness/mean RNFL ratio (2.7 vs 2.4, P =0.04). Although patients with long-term MS and a previous history of ON did not have any functional loss of vision, structural neurodegeneration could be demonstrated in the affected eye.

  3. A relativistic point coupling model for nuclear structure calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buervenich, T.; Maruhn, J.A.; Madland, D.G.; Reinhard, P.G.

    2002-01-01

    A relativistic point coupling model is discussed focusing on a variety of aspects. In addition to the coupling using various bilinear Dirac invariants, derivative terms are also included to simulate finite-range effects. The formalism is presented for nuclear structure calculations of ground state properties of nuclei in the Hartree and Hartree-Fock approximations. Different fitting strategies for the determination of the parameters have been applied and the quality of the fit obtainable in this model is discussed. The model is then compared more generally to other mean-field approaches both formally and in the context of applications to ground-state properties of known and superheavy nuclei. Perspectives for further extensions such as an exact treatment of the exchange terms using a higher-order Fierz transformation are discussed briefly. (author)

  4. Modelling oil price volatility with structural breaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salisu, Afees A.; Fasanya, Ismail O.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we provide two main innovations: (i) we analyze oil prices of two prominent markets namely West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent using the two recently developed tests by Narayan and Popp (2010) and Liu and Narayan, 2010 both of which allow for two structural breaks in the data series; and (ii) the latter method is modified to include both symmetric and asymmetric volatility models. We identify two structural breaks that occur in 1990 and 2008 which coincidentally correspond to the Iraqi/Kuwait conflict and the global financial crisis, respectively. We find evidence of persistence and leverage effects in the oil price volatility. While further extensions can be pursued, the consideration of asymmetric effects as well as structural breaks should not be jettisoned when modelling oil price volatility. - Highlights: ► We analyze oil price volatility using NP (2010) and LN (2010) tests. ► We modify the LN (2010) to account for leverage effects in oil price. ► We find two structural breaks that reflect major global crisis in the oil market. ► We find evidence of persistence and leverage effects in oil price volatility. ► Leverage effects and structural breaks are fundamental in oil price modelling.

  5. Long-term dynamics of the hemiparasite Rhinanthus angustifolius and its relationship with vegetation structure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ameloot, Els; Verheyen, Kris; Bakker, Jan P.; De Vries, Yzaak; Hermy, Martin

    2006-01-01

    Questions: 1. How are the long-term dynamics of the root hemiparasite Rhinanthus angustifolius related to vegetation structure, grassland management and climate? 2. Does R. angustifolius have a long-term impact on standing crop and community composition? Location: A formerly fertilized grassland,

  6. Mechanical Model Development for Composite Structural Supercapacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricks, Trenton M.; Lacy, Thomas E., Jr.; Santiago, Diana; Bednarcyk, Brett A.

    2016-01-01

    Novel composite structural supercapacitor concepts have recently been developed as a means both to store electrical charge and to provide modest mechanical load carrying capability. Double-layer composite supercapacitors are often fabricated by impregnating a woven carbon fiber fabric, which serves as the electrodes, with a structural polymer electrolyte. Polypropylene or a glass fabric is often used as the separator material. Recent research has been primarily limited to evaluating these composites experimentally. In this study, mechanical models based on the Multiscale Generalized Method of Cells (MSGMC) were developed and used to calculate the shear and tensile properties and response of two composite structural supercapacitors from the literature. The modeling approach was first validated against traditional composite laminate data. MSGMC models for composite supercapacitors were developed, and accurate elastic shear/tensile properties were obtained. It is envisioned that further development of the models presented in this work will facilitate the design of composite components for aerospace and automotive applications and can be used to screen candidate constituent materials for inclusion in future composite structural supercapacitor concepts.

  7. Advanced structural equation modeling issues and techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Marcoulides, George A

    2013-01-01

    By focusing primarily on the application of structural equation modeling (SEM) techniques in example cases and situations, this book provides an understanding and working knowledge of advanced SEM techniques with a minimum of mathematical derivations. The book was written for a broad audience crossing many disciplines, assumes an understanding of graduate level multivariate statistics, including an introduction to SEM.

  8. Structured Event-B Models and Proofs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallerstede, Stefan

    2010-01-01

    Event-B does not provide specific support for the modelling of problems that require some structuring, such as, local variables or sequential ordering of events. All variables need to be declared globally and sequential ordering of events can only be achieved by abstract program counters. This ha...

  9. AN EFFICIENT STRUCTURAL REANALYSIS MODEL FOR ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    be required if complete and exact analysis would be carried out. This paper ... qualities even under significantly large design modifications. A numerical example has been presented to show potential capabilities of theproposed model. INTRODUCTION ... equilibrium conditions in the structural system and the subsequent ...

  10. [Hierarchy structuring for mammography technique by interpretive structural modeling method].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kudo, Nozomi; Kurowarabi, Kunio; Terashita, Takayoshi; Nishimoto, Naoki; Ogasawara, Katsuhiko

    2009-10-20

    Participation in screening mammography is currently desired in Japan because of the increase in breast cancer morbidity. However, the pain and discomfort of mammography is recognized as a significant deterrent for women considering this examination. Thus quick procedures, sufficient experience, and advanced skills are required for radiologic technologists. The aim of this study was to make the point of imaging techniques explicit and to help understand the complicated procedure. We interviewed 3 technologists who were highly skilled in mammography, and 14 factors were retrieved by using brainstorming and the KJ method. We then applied Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) to the factors and developed a hierarchical concept structure. The result showed a six-layer hierarchy whose top node was explanation of the entire procedure on mammography. Male technologists were related to as a negative factor. Factors concerned with explanation were at the upper node. We gave attention to X-ray techniques and considerations. The findings will help beginners improve their skills.

  11. Multiple-lesion track-structure model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, J.W.; Cucinotta, F.A.; Shinn, J.L.

    1992-03-01

    A multilesion cell kinetic model is derived, and radiation kinetic coefficients are related to the Katz track structure model. The repair-related coefficients are determined from the delayed plating experiments of Yang et al. for the C3H10T1/2 cell system. The model agrees well with the x ray and heavy ion experiments of Yang et al. for the immediate plating, delaying plating, and fractionated exposure protocols employed by Yang. A study is made of the effects of target fragments in energetic proton exposures and of the repair-deficient target-fragment-induced lesions

  12. Structural Equation Modeling with the Smartpls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian M. Ringle

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this article is to present a didactic example of Structural Equation Modeling using the software SmartPLS 2.0 M3. The program mentioned uses the method of Partial Least Squares and seeks to address the following situations frequently observed in marketing research: Absence of symmetric distributions of variables measured by a theory still in its beginning phase or with little “consolidation”, formative models, and/or a limited amount of data. The growing use of SmartPLS has demonstrated its robustness and the applicability of the model in the areas that are being studied. 

  13. Modelling the structure of complex networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herlau, Tue

    networks has been independently studied as mathematical objects in their own right. As such, there has been both an increased demand for statistical methods for complex networks as well as a quickly growing mathematical literature on the subject. In this dissertation we explore aspects of modelling complex....... The next chapters will treat some of the various symmetries, representer theorems and probabilistic structures often deployed in the modelling complex networks, the construction of sampling methods and various network models. The introductory chapters will serve to provide context for the included written...

  14. Predicting Protein Secondary Structure with Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Paul; Larsen, Simon; Thomsen, Claus

    2004-01-01

    we are considering here, is to predict the secondary structure from the primary one. To this end we train a Markov model on training data and then use it to classify parts of unknown protein sequences as sheets, helices or coils. We show how to exploit the directional information contained...... in the Markov model for this task. Classifications that are purely based on statistical models might not always be biologically meaningful. We present combinatorial methods to incorporate biological background knowledge to enhance the prediction performance....

  15. Source term identification in atmospheric modelling via sparse optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, Lukas; Branda, Martin; Hamburger, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Inverse modelling plays an important role in identifying the amount of harmful substances released into atmosphere during major incidents such as power plant accidents or volcano eruptions. Another possible application of inverse modelling lies in the monitoring the CO2 emission limits where only observations at certain places are available and the task is to estimate the total releases at given locations. This gives rise to minimizing the discrepancy between the observations and the model predictions. There are two standard ways of solving such problems. In the first one, this discrepancy is regularized by adding additional terms. Such terms may include Tikhonov regularization, distance from a priori information or a smoothing term. The resulting, usually quadratic, problem is then solved via standard optimization solvers. The second approach assumes that the error term has a (normal) distribution and makes use of Bayesian modelling to identify the source term. Instead of following the above-mentioned approaches, we utilize techniques from the field of compressive sensing. Such techniques look for a sparsest solution (solution with the smallest number of nonzeros) of a linear system, where a maximal allowed error term may be added to this system. Even though this field is a developed one with many possible solution techniques, most of them do not consider even the simplest constraints which are naturally present in atmospheric modelling. One of such examples is the nonnegativity of release amounts. We believe that the concept of a sparse solution is natural in both problems of identification of the source location and of the time process of the source release. In the first case, it is usually assumed that there are only few release points and the task is to find them. In the second case, the time window is usually much longer than the duration of the actual release. In both cases, the optimal solution should contain a large amount of zeros, giving rise to the

  16. Design of scaled down structural models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simitses, George J.

    1994-07-01

    In the aircraft industry, full scale and large component testing is a very necessary, time consuming, and expensive process. It is essential to find ways by which this process can be minimized without loss of reliability. One possible alternative is the use of scaled down models in testing and use of the model test results in order to predict the behavior of the larger system, referred to herein as prototype. This viewgraph presentation provides justifications and motivation for the research study, and it describes the necessary conditions (similarity conditions) for two structural systems to be structurally similar with similar behavioral response. Similarity conditions provide the relationship between a scaled down model and its prototype. Thus, scaled down models can be used to predict the behavior of the prototype by extrapolating their experimental data. Since satisfying all similarity conditions simultaneously is in most cases impractical, distorted models with partial similarity can be employed. Establishment of similarity conditions, based on the direct use of the governing equations, is discussed and their use in the design of models is presented. Examples include the use of models for the analysis of cylindrical bending of orthotropic laminated beam plates, of buckling of symmetric laminated rectangular plates subjected to uniform uniaxial compression and shear, applied individually, and of vibrational response of the same rectangular plates. Extensions and future tasks are also described.

  17. Flavor structure of warped extra dimension models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agashe, Kaustubh; Perez, Gilad; Soni, Amarjit

    2005-01-01

    We recently showed that warped extra-dimensional models with bulk custodial symmetry and few TeV Kaluza-Klein (KK) masses lead to striking signals at B factories. In this paper, using a spurion analysis, we systematically study the flavor structure of models that belong to the above class. In particular we find that the profiles of the zero modes, which are similar in all these models, essentially control the underlying flavor structure. This implies that our results are robust and model independent in this class of models. We discuss in detail the origin of the signals in B physics. We also briefly study other new physics signatures that arise in rare K decays (K→πνν), in rare top decays [t→cγ(Z,gluon)], and the possibility of CP asymmetries in D 0 decays to CP eigenstates such as K S π 0 and others. Finally we demonstrate that with light KK masses, ∼3 TeV, the above class of models with anarchic 5D Yukawas has a 'CP problem' since contributions to the neutron electric dipole moment are roughly 20 times larger than the current experimental bound. Using AdS/CFT correspondence, these extra-dimensional models are dual to a purely 4D strongly coupled conformal Higgs sector thus enhancing their appeal

  18. Flavor Structure of Warped Extra Dimension Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agashe, Kaustubh; Perez, Gilad; Soni, Amarjit

    2004-01-01

    We recently showed, in HEP-PH--0406101, that warped extra dimensional models with bulk custodial symmetry and few TeV KK masses lead to striking signals at B-factories. In this paper, using a spurion analysis, we systematically study the flavor structure of models that belong to the above class. In particular we find that the profiles of the zero modes, which are similar in all these models, essentially control the underlying flavor structure. This implies that our results are robust and model independent in this class of models. We discuss in detail the origin of the signals in B-physics. We also briefly study other NP signatures that arise in rare K decays (K → πνν), in rare top decays [t → cγ(Z, gluon)] and the possibility of CP asymmetries in D 0 decays to CP eigenstates such as K s π 0 and others. Finally we demonstrate that with light KK masses, ∼ 3 TeV, the above class of models with anarchic 5D Yukawas has a ''CP problem'' since contributions to the neutron electric dipole moment are roughly 20 times larger than the current experimental bound. Using AdS/CFT correspondence, these extra-dimensional models are dual to a purely 4D strongly coupled conformal Higgs sector thus enhancing their appeal

  19. A micromagnetic study of domain structure modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuo, Tetsuji; Mimuro, Naoki; Shimasaki, Masaaki

    2008-01-01

    To develop a mesoscopic model for magnetic-domain behavior, a domain structure model (DSM) was examined and compared with a micromagnetic simulation. The domain structure of this model is given by several domains with uniform magnetization vectors and domain walls. The directions of magnetization vectors and the locations of domain walls are determined so as to minimize the magnetic total energy of the magnetic material. The DSM was modified to improve its representation capability for domain behavior. The domain wall energy is multiplied by a vanishing factor to represent the disappearance of magnetic domain. The sequential quadratic programming procedure is divided into two steps to improve an energy minimization process. A comparison with micromagnetic simulation shows that the modified DSM improves the representation accuracy of the magnetization process

  20. Modelling of long term nitrogen retention in surface waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halbfaß, S.; Gebel, M.; Bürger, S.

    2010-12-01

    In order to derive measures to reduce nutrient loadings into waters in Saxony, we calculated nitrogen inputs with the model STOFFBILANZ on the regional scale. Thereby we have to compare our modelling results to measured loadings at the river basin outlets, considering long term nutrient retention in surface waters. The most important mechanism of nitrogen retention is the denitrification in the contact zone of water and sediment, being controlled by hydraulic and micro-biological processes. Retention capacity is derived on the basis of the nutrient spiralling concept, using water residence time (hydraulic aspect) and time-specific N-uptake by microorganisms (biological aspect). Short time related processes of mobilization and immobilization are neglected, because they are of minor importance for the derivation of measures on the regional scale.

  1. Exploratory structural equation modeling of personality data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, Tom; Hughes, David J

    2014-06-01

    The current article compares the use of exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM) as an alternative to confirmatory factor analytic (CFA) models in personality research. We compare model fit, factor distinctiveness, and criterion associations of factors derived from ESEM and CFA models. In Sample 1 (n = 336) participants completed the NEO-FFI, the Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire-Short Form, and the Creative Domains Questionnaire. In Sample 2 (n = 425) participants completed the Big Five Inventory and the depression and anxiety scales of the General Health Questionnaire. ESEM models provided better fit than CFA models, but ESEM solutions did not uniformly meet cutoff criteria for model fit. Factor scores derived from ESEM and CFA models correlated highly (.91 to .99), suggesting the additional factor loadings within the ESEM model add little in defining latent factor content. Lastly, criterion associations of each personality factor in CFA and ESEM models were near identical in both inventories. We provide an example of how ESEM and CFA might be used together in improving personality assessment. © The Author(s) 2014.

  2. Low-level radioactive waste performance assessments: Source term modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Icenhour, A.S.; Godbee, H.W.; Miller, L.F.

    1995-01-01

    Low-level radioactive wastes (LLW) generated by government and commercial operations need to be isolated from the environment for at least 300 to 500 yr. Most existing sites for the storage or disposal of LLW employ the shallow-land burial approach. However, the U.S. Department of Energy currently emphasizes the use of engineered systems (e.g., packaging, concrete and metal barriers, and water collection systems). Future commercial LLW disposal sites may include such systems to mitigate radionuclide transport through the biosphere. Performance assessments must be conducted for LUW disposal facilities. These studies include comprehensive evaluations of radionuclide migration from the waste package, through the vadose zone, and within the water table. Atmospheric transport mechanisms are also studied. Figure I illustrates the performance assessment process. Estimates of the release of radionuclides from the waste packages (i.e., source terms) are used for subsequent hydrogeologic calculations required by a performance assessment. Computer models are typically used to describe the complex interactions of water with LLW and to determine the transport of radionuclides. Several commonly used computer programs for evaluating source terms include GWSCREEN, BLT (Breach-Leach-Transport), DUST (Disposal Unit Source Term), BARRIER (Ref. 5), as well as SOURCE1 and SOURCE2 (which are used in this study). The SOURCE1 and SOURCE2 codes were prepared by Rogers and Associates Engineering Corporation for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). SOURCE1 is designed for tumulus-type facilities, and SOURCE2 is tailored for silo, well-in-silo, and trench-type disposal facilities. This paper focuses on the source term for ORNL disposal facilities, and it describes improved computational methods for determining radionuclide transport from waste packages

  3. Sensitivity of system stability to model structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosack, G.R.; Li, H.W.; Rossignol, P.A.

    2009-01-01

    A community is stable, and resilient, if the levels of all community variables can return to the original steady state following a perturbation. The stability properties of a community depend on its structure, which is the network of direct effects (interactions) among the variables within the community. These direct effects form feedback cycles (loops) that determine community stability. Although feedback cycles have an intuitive interpretation, identifying how they form the feedback properties of a particular community can be intractable. Furthermore, determining the role that any specific direct effect plays in the stability of a system is even more daunting. Such information, however, would identify important direct effects for targeted experimental and management manipulation even in complex communities for which quantitative information is lacking. We therefore provide a method that determines the sensitivity of community stability to model structure, and identifies the relative role of particular direct effects, indirect effects, and feedback cycles in determining stability. Structural sensitivities summarize the degree to which each direct effect contributes to stabilizing feedback or destabilizing feedback or both. Structural sensitivities prove useful in identifying ecologically important feedback cycles within the community structure and for detecting direct effects that have strong, or weak, influences on community stability. The approach may guide the development of management intervention and research design. We demonstrate its value with two theoretical models and two empirical examples of different levels of complexity. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Molecular Models of Genetic and Organismic Structures

    CERN Document Server

    Baianu, I C

    2004-01-01

    In recent studies we showed that the earlier relational theories of organismic sets (Rashevsky,1967), Metabolic-Replication (M,R)-systems (Rosen,1958)and molecular sets (Bartholomay,1968) share a joint foundation that can be studied within a unified categorical framework of functional organismic structures (Baianu,1980. This is possible because all relational theories have a biomolecular basis, that is, complex structures such as genomes, cells,organs and biological organisms are mathematically represented in terms of biomolecular properties and entities,(that are often implicit in their representation axioms. The definition of organismic sets, for example, requires that certain essential quantities be determined from experiment: these are specified by special sets of values of general observables that are derived from physicochemical measurements(Baianu,1970; Baianu,1980; Baianu et al, 2004a.)Such observables are context-dependent and lead directly to natural transformations in categories and Topoi, that are...

  5. Asymmetry and Risk Premia in the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Ganem

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The risk premium in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates is partially driven by some specific defensive behavior following past monetary decisions. Until 2008, the Brazilian Central Bank has primarily dealt with domestic and external crises by raising the short term rate to restrain capital outflows, generating a well-known asymmetry in the market’s response functions to risk aversion. Therefore, the traditional parameterization of risk based on mean and variance estimators fails to capture the market price of risk eventually assigned to higher order moments of bond returns across several maturities. In this paper we propose an arbitrage-free, discrete-time model that provides the form for a lagged endogenous regression which tests the significance and magnitude of the market price of asymmetry in the Brazilian fixed income market. The results are analyzed from a historical perspective, comparing the evolution of the price of asymmetry, the improvement of Brazil’s sovereign risk and the monetary policy conduction from 2003 to 2009.

  6. Aorta Structural Alterations in Term Neonates: The Role of Birth and Maternal Characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Matteo Ciccone

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To evaluate the influence of selected maternal and neonatal characteristics on aorta walls in term, appropriately grown-for-gestational age newborns. Methods. Age, parity, previous abortions, weight, height, body mass index before and after delivery, smoking, and history of hypertension, of diabetes, of cardiovascular diseases, and of dyslipidemia were all assessed in seventy mothers. They delivered 34 males and 36 females healthy term newborns who underwent ultrasound evaluation of the anteroposterior infrarenal abdominal aorta diameter (APAO, biochemical profile (glucose, insulin, total cholesterol, HDL and LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, fibrinogen, and D-dimers homeostasis model assessment [HOMAIR]index, and biometric parameters. Results. APAO was related to newborn length (r=+0.36; P=0.001, head circumference (r=+0.37; P=0.001, gestational age (r=+0.40, P=0.0005, HOMA index (r=+0.24; P=0.04, and D-dimers (r=+0.33, P=0.004. Smoke influenced APAO values (odds ratio: 1.80; confidence interval 95%: 1.05–3.30, as well as diabetes during pregnancy (r=+0.42, P=0.0002. Maternal height influenced neonatal APAO (r=+0.47, P=0.00003. Multiple regression analysis outlined neonatal D-dimers as still significantly related to neonatal APAO values. Conclusions. Many maternal and neonatal characteristics could influence aorta structures. Neonatal D-dimers are independently related to APAO.

  7. Modelling of Radiolytical Proceses in Polystyrenic Structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Postolache, C.

    2006-01-01

    The behavior of polystyrene, poly α-methylstyrene and poly β-methylstyrene structures in ionizing fields was analyzed using computational methods. In this study, the primary radiolytic effect was evaluated using a free radical mechanism. Molecular structures were built and geometrical optimized using quantum-chemical methods. Binding energies for different quantum states and peripheral orbitals distribution were determined. Based on obtained results it was proposed an evaluation model of radiolytical processes in polymers in solid phase. Suggested model suppose to distinguish the dominant processes by binding energies values analysis and LUMO peripheral orbital distribution. Computed binding energies analysis of energetically optimized molecular structures in ionized state (charge +1, multiplicity 2) reveals a high similitude of obtained binding energies for ionized states. The same similitude was observed also in case of total binding energies for neutral state (charge 0, multiplicity 1). Analyzed molecular structures can be associated with ionized molecule state right after one electron capture. This fact suggests that the determined stage of radiolitical fragmentation act is intermediate state of ionized molecule. This molecule captured one electron but it had no necessary time for atoms rearrangement in the molecule for new quantum state. This supposition is in accordance with literature, the time period between excitation act and fragmentation act being lower than 10 - 15 seconds. Based on realized model could be explained the behavior differences of polymeric structures in ionizing radiation field. Preferential fracture of main chains in fragmentation poly α-methylstirene can be explained in accordance with proposed model by C-C from main C bonding energies decreasing in the neighboring of quaternary C

  8. Measuring and modelling the structure of chocolate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Révérend, Benjamin J. D.; Fryer, Peter J.; Smart, Ian; Bakalis, Serafim

    2015-01-01

    The cocoa butter present in chocolate exists as six different polymorphs. To achieve the desired crystal form (βV), traditional chocolate manufacturers use relatively slow cooling (chocolate products during processing as well as the crystal structure of cocoa butter throughout the process. A set of ordinary differential equations describes the kinetics of fat crystallisation. The parameters were obtained by fitting the model to a set of DSC curves. The heat transfer equations were coupled to the kinetic model and solved using commercially available CFD software. A method using single crystal XRD was developed using a novel subtraction method to quantify the cocoa butter structure in chocolate directly and results were compared to the ones predicted from the model. The model was proven to predict phase change temperature during processing accurately (±1°C). Furthermore, it was possible to correctly predict phase changes and polymorphous transitions. The good agreement between the model and experimental data on the model geometry allows a better design and control of industrial processes.

  9. A new Expert Finding model based on Term Correlation Matrix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsan Pornour

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Due to the enormous volume of unstructured information available on the Web and inside organization, finding an answer to the knowledge need in a short time is difficult. For this reason, beside Search Engines which don’t consider users individual characteristics, Recommender systems were created which use user’s previous activities and other individual characteristics to help users find needed knowledge. Recommender systems usage is increasing every day. Expert finder systems also by introducing expert people instead of recommending information to users have provided this facility for users to ask their questions form experts. Having relation with experts not only causes information transition, but also with transferring experiences and inception causes knowledge transition. In this paper we used university professors academic resume as expert people profile and then proposed a new expert finding model that recommends experts to users query. We used Term Correlation Matrix, Vector Space Model and PageRank algorithm and proposed a new hybrid model which outperforms conventional methods. This model can be used in internet environment, organizations and universities that experts have resume dataset.

  10. A Long-Term Mathematical Model for Mining Industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Achdou, Yves; Giraud, Pierre-Noel; Lasry, Jean-Michel; Lions, Pierre-Louis

    2016-01-01

    A parcimonious long term model is proposed for a mining industry. Knowing the dynamics of the global reserve, the strategy of each production unit consists of an optimal control problem with two controls, first the flux invested into prospection and the building of new extraction facilities, second the production rate. In turn, the dynamics of the global reserve depends on the individual strategies of the producers, so the models leads to an equilibrium, which is described by low dimensional systems of partial differential equations. The dimensionality depends on the number of technologies that a mining producer can choose. In some cases, the systems may be reduced to a Hamilton–Jacobi equation which is degenerate at the boundary and whose right hand side may blow up at the boundary. A mathematical analysis is supplied. Then numerical simulations for models with one or two technologies are described. In particular, a numerical calibration of the model in order to fit the historical data is carried out.

  11. A Long-Term Mathematical Model for Mining Industries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Achdou, Yves, E-mail: achdou@ljll.univ-paris-diderot.fr [Univ. Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Laboratoire Jacques-Louis Lions, UMR 7598, UPMC, CNRS (France); Giraud, Pierre-Noel [CERNA, Mines ParisTech (France); Lasry, Jean-Michel [Univ. Paris Dauphine (France); Lions, Pierre-Louis [Collège de France (France)

    2016-12-15

    A parcimonious long term model is proposed for a mining industry. Knowing the dynamics of the global reserve, the strategy of each production unit consists of an optimal control problem with two controls, first the flux invested into prospection and the building of new extraction facilities, second the production rate. In turn, the dynamics of the global reserve depends on the individual strategies of the producers, so the models leads to an equilibrium, which is described by low dimensional systems of partial differential equations. The dimensionality depends on the number of technologies that a mining producer can choose. In some cases, the systems may be reduced to a Hamilton–Jacobi equation which is degenerate at the boundary and whose right hand side may blow up at the boundary. A mathematical analysis is supplied. Then numerical simulations for models with one or two technologies are described. In particular, a numerical calibration of the model in order to fit the historical data is carried out.

  12. Term Structure of Credit Spreads of A Firm When Its Underlying Assets are Discontinuous

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budhi Arta Surya

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We revisit the previous works of Leland [12], Leland and Toft [11] andHilberink and Rogers [7] on optimal capital structure and show that thecredit spreads of short-maturity corporate bonds can have nonzero valueswhen the underlying of the firm’s assets value has downward jumps. We givean analytical treatment of this fact under a general Levy process and discusssome numerical examples under pure jump processes.Keywords: Optimal capital structure, credit risk, term structure of creditspread

  13. Evidence from a rare case-study for Hebbian-like changes in structural connectivity induced by long-term deep brain stimulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim J Van Hartevelt

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available It is unclear whether Hebbian-like learning occurs at the level of long-range white matter connections in humans, i.e. where measurable changes in structural connectivity are correlated with changes in functional connectivity. However, the behavioral changes observed after deep brain stimulation (DBS suggest the existence of such Hebbian-like mechanisms occurring at the structural level with functional consequences. In this rare case study, we obtained the full network of white matter connections of one patient with Parkinson's disease before and after long-term DBS and combined it with a computational model of ongoing activity to investigate the effects of DBS-induced long-term structural changes. The results show that the long-term effects of DBS on resting-state functional connectivity is best obtained in the computational model by changing the structural weights from the subthalamic nucleus to the putamen and the thalamus in a Hebbian-like manner. Moreover, long-term DBS also significantly changed the structural connectivity towards normality in terms of model-based measures of segregation and integration of information processing, two key concepts of brain organization. This novel approach using computational models to model the effects of Hebbian-like changes in structural connectivity allowed us to causally identify the possible underlying neural mechanisms of long-term DBS using rare case study data. In time, this could help predict the efficacy of individual DBS targeting and identify novel DBS targets.

  14. Tectonic forward modelling of positive inversion structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandes, C. [Leibniz Univ. Hannover (Germany). Inst. fuer Geologie; Schmidt, C. [Landesamt fuer Bergbau, Energie und Geologie (LBEG), Hannover (Germany)

    2013-08-01

    Positive tectonic inversion structures are common features that were recognized in many deformed sedimentary basins (Lowell, 1995). They are characterized by a two phase fault evolution, where initial normal faulting was followed by reverse faulting along the same fault, accompanied by the development of hanging wall deformation. Analysing the evolution of such inversion structures is important for understanding the tectonics of sedimentary basins and the formation of hydrocarbon traps. We used a 2D tectonic forward modelling approach to simulate the stepwise structural evolution of inversion structures in cross-section. The modelling was performed with the software FaultFold Forward v. 6, which is based on trishear kinematics (Zehnder and Allmendinger, 2000). Key aspect of the study was to derive the controlling factors for the geometry of inversion structures. The simulation results show, that the trishear approach is able to reproduce the geometry of tectonic inversion structures in a realistic way. This implies that inversion structures are simply fault-related folds that initiated as extensional fault-propagation folds, which were subsequently transformed into compressional fault-propagation folds when the stress field changed. The hanging wall deformation is a consequence of the decrease in slip towards the tip line of the fault. Trishear angle and propagation-to-slip ratio are the key controlling factors for the geometry of the fault-related deformation. We tested trishear angles in the range of 30 - 60 and propagation-to-slip ratios between 1 and 2 in increments of 0.1. Small trishear angles and low propagation-to-slip ratios produced tight folds, whereas large trishear angles and high propagation-to-slip ratios led to more open folds with concentric shapes. This has a direct effect on the size and geometry of potential hydrocarbon traps. The 2D simulations can be extended to a pseudo 3D approach, where a set of parallel cross-sections is used to describe

  15. The Structure of Preschoolers' Emotion Knowledge: Model Equivalence and Validity Using a Structural Equation Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassett, Hideko Hamada; Denham, Susanne; Mincic, Melissa; Graling, Kelly

    2012-01-01

    Research Findings: A theory-based 2-factor structure of preschoolers' emotion knowledge (i.e., recognition of emotional expression and understanding of emotion-eliciting situations) was tested using confirmatory factor analysis. Compared to 1- and 3-factor models, the 2-factor model showed a better fit to the data. The model was found to be…

  16. Fast loop modeling for protein structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jiong; Nguyen, Son; Shang, Yi; Xu, Dong; Kosztin, Ioan

    2015-03-01

    X-ray crystallography is the main method for determining 3D protein structures. In many cases, however, flexible loop regions of proteins cannot be resolved by this approach. This leads to incomplete structures in the protein data bank, preventing further computational study and analysis of these proteins. For instance, all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulation studies of structure-function relationship require complete protein structures. To address this shortcoming, we have developed and implemented an efficient computational method for building missing protein loops. The method is database driven and uses deep learning and multi-dimensional scaling algorithms. We have implemented the method as a simple stand-alone program, which can also be used as a plugin in existing molecular modeling software, e.g., VMD. The quality and stability of the generated structures are assessed and tested via energy scoring functions and by equilibrium MD simulations. The proposed method can also be used in template-based protein structure prediction. Work supported by the National Institutes of Health [R01 GM100701]. Computer time was provided by the University of Missouri Bioinformatics Consortium.

  17. Stochastic model stationarization by eliminating the periodic term and its effect on time series prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moeeni, Hamid; Bonakdari, Hossein; Fatemi, Seyed Ehsan

    2017-04-01

    Because time series stationarization has a key role in stochastic modeling results, three methods are analyzed in this study. The methods are seasonal differencing, seasonal standardization and spectral analysis to eliminate the periodic effect on time series stationarity. First, six time series including 4 streamflow series and 2 water temperature series are stationarized. The stochastic term for these series obtained with ARIMA is subsequently modeled. For the analysis, 9228 models are introduced. It is observed that seasonal standardization and spectral analysis eliminate the periodic term completely, while seasonal differencing maintains seasonal correlation structures. The obtained results indicate that all three methods present acceptable performance overall. However, model accuracy in monthly streamflow prediction is higher with seasonal differencing than with the other two methods. Another advantage of seasonal differencing over the other methods is that the monthly streamflow is never estimated as negative. Standardization is the best method for predicting monthly water temperature although it is quite similar to seasonal differencing, while spectral analysis performed the weakest in all cases. It is concluded that for each monthly seasonal series, seasonal differencing is the best stationarization method in terms of periodic effect elimination. Moreover, the monthly water temperature is predicted with more accuracy than monthly streamflow. The criteria of the average stochastic term divided by the amplitude of the periodic term obtained for monthly streamflow and monthly water temperature were 0.19 and 0.30, 0.21 and 0.13, and 0.07 and 0.04 respectively. As a result, the periodic term is more dominant than the stochastic term for water temperature in the monthly water temperature series compared to streamflow series.

  18. Detecting Structural Breaks using Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ntantamis, Christos

    Testing for structural breaks and identifying their location is essential for econometric modeling. In this paper, a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) approach is used in order to perform these tasks. Breaks are defined as the data points where the underlying Markov Chain switches from one state to another....... The estimation of the HMM is conducted using a variant of the Iterative Conditional Expectation-Generalized Mixture (ICE-GEMI) algorithm proposed by Delignon et al. (1997), that permits analysis of the conditional distributions of economic data and allows for different functional forms across regimes...

  19. Construction of long-term isochronous stress-strain curves by a modeling of short-term creep curves for a Grade 9Cr-1Mo steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo-Gon; Yin, Song-Nan; Koo, Gyeong-Hoi

    2009-01-01

    This study dealt with the construction of long-term isochronous stress-strain curves (ISSC) by a modeling of short-term creep curves for a Grade 9Cr-1Mo steel (G91) which is a candidate material for structural applications in the next generation nuclear reactors as well as in fusion reactors. To do this, tensile material data used in the inelastic constitutive equations was obtained by tensile tests at 550degC. Creep curves were obtained by a series of creep tests with different stress levels of 300MPa to 220MPa at an identical controlled temperature of 550degC. On the basis of these experimental data, the creep curves were characterized by Garofalo's creep model. Three parameters of P 1 , P 2 and P 3 in Garofalo's model were properly optimized by a nonlinear least square fitting (NLSF) analysis. The stress dependency of the three parameters was found to be a linear relationship. But, the P 3 parameter representing the steady state creep rate exhibited a two slope behavior with different stress exponents at a transient stress of about 250 MPa. The long-term creep curves of the G91 steel was modeled by Garofalo's model with only a few short-term creep data. Using the modeled creep curves, the long-term isochronous curves up to 10 5 hours were successfully constructed. (author)

  20. Structural modelling of economic growth: Technological changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukharev Oleg

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Neoclassical and Keynesian theories of economic growth assume the use of Cobb-Douglas modified functions and other aggregate econometric approaches to growth dynamics modelling. In that case explanations of economic growth are based on the logic of the used mathematical ratios often including the ideas about aggregated values change and factors change a priori. The idea of assessment of factor productivity is the fundamental one among modern theories of economic growth. Nevertheless, structural parameters of economic system, institutions and technological changes are practically not considered within known approaches, though the latter is reflected in the changing parameters of production function. At the same time, on the one hand, the ratio of structural elements determines the future value of the total productivity of the factors and, on the other hand, strongly influences the rate of economic growth and its mode of innovative dynamics. To put structural parameters of economic system into growth models with the possibility of assessment of such modes under conditions of interaction of new and old combinations is an essential step in the development of the theory of economic growth/development. It allows forming stimulation policy of economic growth proceeding from the structural ratios and relations recognized for this economic system. It is most convenient in such models to use logistic functions demonstrating the resource change for old and new combination within the economic system. The result of economy development depends on starting conditions, and on institutional parameters of velocity change of resource borrowing in favour of a new combination and creation of its own resource. Model registration of the resource is carried out through the idea of investments into new and old combinations.

  1. Global plastic models for computerized structural analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roche, R.L.; Hoffmann, A.

    1977-01-01

    In many types of structures, it is possible to use generalized stresses (like membrane forces, bending moment, torsion moment...) to define a yield surface for a part of the structure. Analysis can be achieved by using the HILL's principle and a hardening rule. The whole formulation is said 'Global Plastic Model'. Two different global models are used in the CEASEMT system for structural analysis, one for shell analysis and the other for piping analysis (in plastic or creep field). In shell analysis the generalized stresses chosen are the membrane forces and bending (including torsion) moments. There is only one yield condition for a normal to the middle surface and no integration along the thickness is required. In piping analysis, the choice of generalized stresses is bending moments, torsional moment, hoop stress and tension stress. There is only a set of stresses for a cross section and no integration over the cross section area is needed. Connected strains are axis curvature, torsion, uniform strains. The definition of the yield surface is the most important item. A practical way is to use a diagonal quadratic function of the stress components. But the coefficients are depending of the shape of the pipe element, especially for curved segments. Indications will be given on the yield functions used. Some examples of applications in structural analysis are added to the text

  2. Modeling of long-term energy system of Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gotoh, Yoshitaka; Sato, Osamu; Tadokoro, Yoshihiro

    1999-07-01

    In order to analyze the future potential of reducing carbon dioxide emissions, the long-term energy system of Japan was modeled following the framework of the MARKAL model, and the database of energy technology characteristics was developed. First, a reference energy system was built by incorporating all important energy sources and technologies that will be available until the year 2050. This system consists of 25 primary energy sources, 33 technologies for electric power generation and/or low temperature heat production, 97 technologies for energy transformation, storage, and distribution, and 170 end-use technologies. Second, the database was developed for the characteristics of individual technologies in the system. The characteristic data consists of input and output of energy carriers, efficiency, availability, lifetime, investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, CO 2 emission coefficient, and others. Since a large number of technologies are included in the system, this report focuses modeling of a supply side, and involves the database of energy technologies other than for end-use purposes. (author)

  3. Nonlinear Kalman filtering in affine term structure models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Dorion, Christian; Jacobs, Kris

    2014-01-01

    The extended Kalman filter, which linearizes the relationship between security prices and state variables, is widely used in fixed-income applications. We investigate whether the unscented Kalman filter should be used to capture nonlinearities and compare the performance of the Kalman filter...... with that of the particle filter. We analyze the cross section of swap rates, which are mildly nonlinear in the states, and cap prices, which are highly nonlinear. When caps are used to filter the states, the unscented Kalman filter significantly outperforms its extended counterpart. The unscented Kalman filter also...... performs well when compared with the much more computationally intensive particle filter. These findings suggest that the unscented Kalman filter may be a good approach for a variety of problems in fixed-income pricing....

  4. Geological-structural models used in SR 97. Uncertainty analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saksa, P.; Nummela, J. [FINTACT Oy (Finland)

    1998-10-01

    the borehole investigations may not represent the site outside the covered volume. Finally five different uncertainty indices were calculated for regional and site scale, borehole data, representativity and structural knowledge. High uncertainty exists for all site volumes in terms of structural knowledge. Uncertainty in representativity is rather high at Aberg. Beberg and Ceberg has high uncertainty indices when regional scale models are concerned 30 refs, 36 figs, 8 tabs

  5. Geological-structural models used in SR 97. Uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saksa, P.; Nummela, J.

    1998-10-01

    borehole investigations may not represent the site outside the covered volume. Finally five different uncertainty indices were calculated for regional and site scale, borehole data, representativity and structural knowledge. High uncertainty exists for all site volumes in terms of structural knowledge. Uncertainty in representativity is rather high at Aberg. Beberg and Ceberg has high uncertainty indices when regional scale models are concerned

  6. The IEA Model of Short-term Energy Security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    Ensuring energy security has been at the centre of the IEA mission since its inception, following the oil crises of the early 1970s. While the security of oil supplies remains important, contemporary energy security policies must address all energy sources and cover a comprehensive range of natural, economic and political risks that affect energy sources, infrastructures and services. In response to this challenge, the IEA is currently developing a Model Of Short-term Energy Security (MOSES) to evaluate the energy security risks and resilience capacities of its member countries. The current version of MOSES covers short-term security of supply for primary energy sources and secondary fuels among IEA countries. It also lays the foundation for analysis of vulnerabilities of electricity and end-use energy sectors. MOSES contains a novel approach to analysing energy security, which can be used to identify energy security priorities, as a starting point for national energy security assessments and to track the evolution of a country's energy security profile. By grouping together countries with similar 'energy security profiles', MOSES depicts the energy security landscape of IEA countries. By extending the MOSES methodology to electricity security and energy services in the future, the IEA aims to develop a comprehensive policy-relevant perspective on global energy security. This Working Paper is intended for readers who wish to explore the MOSES methodology in depth; there is also a brochure which provides an overview of the analysis and results.

  7. Linking advanced fracture models to structural analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiesa, Matteo

    2001-07-01

    Shell structures with defects occur in many situations. The defects are usually introduced during the welding process necessary for joining different parts of the structure. Higher utilization of structural materials leads to a need for accurate numerical tools for reliable prediction of structural response. The direct discretization of the cracked shell structure with solid finite elements in order to perform an integrity assessment of the structure in question leads to large size problems, and makes such analysis infeasible in structural application. In this study a link between local material models and structural analysis is outlined. An ''ad hoc'' element formulation is used in order to connect complex material models to the finite element framework used for structural analysis. An improved elasto-plastic line spring finite element formulation, used in order to take cracks into account, is linked to shell elements which are further linked to beam elements. In this way one obtain a global model of the shell structure that also accounts for local flexibilities and fractures due to defects. An important advantage with such an approach is a direct fracture mechanics assessment e.g. via computed J-integral or CTOD. A recent development in this approach is the notion of two-parameter fracture assessment. This means that the crack tip stress tri-axiality (constraint) is employed in determining the corresponding fracture toughness, giving a much more realistic capacity of cracked structures. The present thesis is organized in six research articles and an introductory chapter that reviews important background literature related to this work. Paper I and II address the performance of shell and line spring finite elements as a cost effective tool for performing the numerical calculation needed to perform a fracture assessment. In Paper II a failure assessment, based on the testing of a constraint-corrected fracture mechanics specimen under tension, is

  8. Modelling the long-term vertical dynamics of salt marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoccarato, Claudia; Teatini, Pietro

    2017-04-01

    Salt marshes are vulnerable environments hosting complex interactions between physical and biological processes with a strong influence on the dynamics of the marsh evolution. The estimation and prediction of the elevation of a salt-marsh platform is crucial to forecast the marsh growth or regression under different scenarios considering, for example, the potential climate changes. The long-term vertical dynamics of a salt marsh is predicted with the aid of an original finite-element (FE) numerical model accounting for the marsh accretion and compaction and for the variation rates of the relative sea level rise, i.e., land subsidence of the marsh basement and eustatic rise of the sea level. The accretion term considers the vertical sedimentation of organic and inorganic material over the marsh surface, whereas the compaction reflects the progressive consolidation of the porous medium under the increasing load of the overlying younger deposits. The modelling approach is based on a 2D groundwater flow simulator, which provides the pressure evolution within a compacting/accreting vertical cross-section of the marsh assuming that the groundwater flow obeys the relative Darcy's law, coupled to a 1D vertical geomechanical module following Terzaghi's principle of effective intergranular stress. Soil porosity, permeability, and compressibility may vary with the effective intergranular stress according to empirically based relationships. The model also takes into account the geometric non-linearity arising from the consideration of large solid grain movements by using a Lagrangian approach with an adaptive FE mesh. The element geometry changes in time to follow the deposit consolidation and the element number increases in time to follow the sedimentation of new material. The numerical model is tested on different realistic configurations considering the influence of (i) the spatial distribution of the sedimentation rate in relation to the distance from the marsh margin, (ii

  9. Modeling repetitive motions using structured light.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yi; Aliaga, Daniel G

    2010-01-01

    Obtaining models of dynamic 3D objects is an important part of content generation for computer graphics. Numerous methods have been extended from static scenarios to model dynamic scenes. If the states or poses of the dynamic object repeat often during a sequence (but not necessarily periodically), we call such a repetitive motion. There are many objects, such as toys, machines, and humans, undergoing repetitive motions. Our key observation is that when a motion-state repeats, we can sample the scene under the same motion state again but using a different set of parameters; thus, providing more information of each motion state. This enables robustly acquiring dense 3D information difficult for objects with repetitive motions using only simple hardware. After the motion sequence, we group temporally disjoint observations of the same motion state together and produce a smooth space-time reconstruction of the scene. Effectively, the dynamic scene modeling problem is converted to a series of static scene reconstructions, which are easier to tackle. The varying sampling parameters can be, for example, structured-light patterns, illumination directions, and viewpoints resulting in different modeling techniques. Based on this observation, we present an image-based motion-state framework and demonstrate our paradigm using either a synchronized or an unsynchronized structured-light acquisition method.

  10. Expansion of IFC model with structural sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rio, J.

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The instrumentation and structural health monitoring, SHM, of buildings is a growing field in the construction industry. The goal of this research work is to explore ways of modeling SHM systems, and the resulting data collected from buildings, in standard information management system such as Building Information Models, BIM. These models need to be stored in digital databases with structures suitable for the specific building related information. In this work the Industry Foundation Classes, IFC, data model was used. A case study is presented to assess the applicability of the present IFC standard as a tool to build a three-dimensional digital model of a real instrumented building, as well as some of the structural sensors and their results. The interoperability of the digital model was verified by using different modeling, viewing and analysis software tools. Limitations of the current IFC model were explored and extensions to the sensor classes are proposed.La instrumentación y monitorización de la salud estructural de edificios, SHM, es un campo creciente en la industria de la construcción. El objetivo del presente trabajo es estudiar la modelación de sistemas SHM tomados de edificios en un modelo digital BIM e la sua integración de datos. Estos modelos deben almacenarse en bases de datos con una estructura apropiada para albergar información específica relacionada con la construcción. En este trabajo se utilizó el estándar Industry Foundation Classes, IFC. Se presenta un estudio de caso para evaluar la norma IFC como herramienta para modelar un edificio real instrumentado, así como algunos sensores estruturales e sus resultados. La inter-operatividad de lo modelo digital se ha comprobado mediante el uso de diferentes herramientas de software de modelación, visualización y análisis. Se exploran además limitaciones del modelo IFC y se proponen extensiones de las clases de sensores.

  11. Meta-analytic structural equation modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Jak, Suzanne

    2015-01-01

    This book explains how to employ MASEM, the combination of meta-analysis (MA) and structural equation modelling (SEM). It shows how by using MASEM, a single model can be tested to explain the relationships between a set of variables in several studies. This book gives an introduction to MASEM, with a focus on the state of the art approach: the two stage approach of Cheung and Cheung & Chan. Both, the fixed and the random approach to MASEM are illustrated with two applications to real data. All steps that have to be taken to perform the analyses are discussed extensively. All data and syntax files are available online, so that readers can imitate all analyses. By using SEM for meta-analysis, this book shows how to benefit from all available information from all available studies, even if few or none of the studies report about all relationships that feature in the full model of interest.

  12. REMI and ROUSE: Quantitative Models for Long-Term and Short-Term Priming in Perceptual Identification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.J. Wagenmakers (Eric-Jan); R. Zeelenberg (René); D.E. Huber (David); J.G.W. Raaijmakers (Jeroen)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThe REM model originally developed for recognition memory (Shiffrin & Steyvers, 1997) has recently been extended to implicit memory phenomena observed during threshold identification of words. We discuss two REM models based on Bayesian principles: a model for long-term priming (REMI;

  13. Building large collections of Chinese and English medical terms from semi-structured and encyclopedia websites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yan; Wang, Yining; Sun, Jian-Tao; Zhang, Jianwen; Tsujii, Junichi; Chang, Eric

    2013-01-01

    To build large collections of medical terms from semi-structured information sources (e.g. tables, lists, etc.) and encyclopedia sites on the web. The terms are classified into the three semantic categories, Medical Problems, Medications, and Medical Tests, which were used in i2b2 challenge tasks. We developed two systems, one for Chinese and another for English terms. The two systems share the same methodology and use the same software with minimum language dependent parts. We produced large collections of terms by exploiting billions of semi-structured information sources and encyclopedia sites on the Web. The standard performance metric of recall (R) is extended to three different types of Recall to take the surface variability of terms into consideration. They are Surface Recall (R(S)), Object Recall (R(O)), and Surface Head recall (R(H)). We use two test sets for Chinese. For English, we use a collection of terms in the 2010 i2b2 text. Two collections of terms, one for English and the other for Chinese, have been created. The terms in these collections are classified as either of Medical Problems, Medications, or Medical Tests in the i2b2 challenge tasks. The English collection contains 49,249 (Problems), 89,591 (Medications) and 25,107 (Tests) terms, while the Chinese one contains 66,780 (Problems), 101,025 (Medications), and 15,032 (Tests) terms. The proposed method of constructing a large collection of medical terms is both efficient and effective, and, most of all, independent of language. The collections will be made publicly available.

  14. A Reaction-Diffusion Model for Synapse Growth and Long-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Kang; Lisman, John; Hagan, Michael

    Memory storage involves strengthening of synaptic transmission known as long-term potentiation (LTP). The late phase of LTP is associated with structural processes that enlarge the synapse. Yet, synapses must be stable, despite continual subunit turnover, over the lifetime of an encoded memory. These considerations suggest that synapses are variable-size stable structure (VSSS), meaning they can switch between multiple metastable structures with different sizes. The mechanisms underlying VSSS are poorly understood. While experiments and theory have suggested that the interplay between diffusion and receptor-scaffold interactions can lead to a preferred stable size for synaptic domains, such a mechanism cannot explain how synapses adopt widely different sizes. Here we develop a minimal reaction-diffusion model of VSSS for synapse growth, incorporating the recent observation from super-resolution microscopy that neural activity can build compositional heterogeneities within synaptic domains. We find that introducing such heterogeneities can change the stable domain size in a controlled manner. We discuss a potential connection between this model and experimental data on synapse sizes, and how it provides a possible mechanism to structurally encode graded long-term memory. We acknowledge the support from NSF INSPIRE Award number IOS-1526941 (KL, MFH, JL) and the Brandeis Center for Bioinspired Soft Materials, an NSF MRSEC, DMR- 1420382 (MFH).

  15. Modelling substorm chorus events in terms of dispersive azimuthal drift

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. B. Collier

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The Substorm Chorus Event (SCE is a radio phenomenon observed on the ground after the onset of the substorm expansion phase. It consists of a band of VLF chorus with rising upper and lower cutoff frequencies. These emissions are thought to result from Doppler-shifted cyclotron resonance between whistler mode waves and energetic electrons which drift into a ground station's field of view from an injection site around midnight. The increasing frequency of the emission envelope has been attributed to the combined effects of energy dispersion due to gradient and curvature drifts, and the modification of resonance conditions and variation of the half-gyrofrequency cutoff resulting from the radial component of the ExB drift.

    A model is presented which accounts for the observed features of the SCE in terms of the growth rate of whistler mode waves due to anisotropy in the electron distribution. This model provides an explanation for the increasing frequency of the SCE lower cutoff, as well as reproducing the general frequency-time signature of the event. In addition, the results place some restrictions on the injected particle source distribution which might lead to a SCE.

    Key words. Space plasma physics (Wave-particle interaction – Magnetospheric physics (Plasma waves and instabilities; Storms and substorms

  16. Modelling substorm chorus events in terms of dispersive azimuthal drift

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. B. Collier

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The Substorm Chorus Event (SCE is a radio phenomenon observed on the ground after the onset of the substorm expansion phase. It consists of a band of VLF chorus with rising upper and lower cutoff frequencies. These emissions are thought to result from Doppler-shifted cyclotron resonance between whistler mode waves and energetic electrons which drift into a ground station's field of view from an injection site around midnight. The increasing frequency of the emission envelope has been attributed to the combined effects of energy dispersion due to gradient and curvature drifts, and the modification of resonance conditions and variation of the half-gyrofrequency cutoff resulting from the radial component of the ExB drift. A model is presented which accounts for the observed features of the SCE in terms of the growth rate of whistler mode waves due to anisotropy in the electron distribution. This model provides an explanation for the increasing frequency of the SCE lower cutoff, as well as reproducing the general frequency-time signature of the event. In addition, the results place some restrictions on the injected particle source distribution which might lead to a SCE. Key words. Space plasma physics (Wave-particle interaction – Magnetospheric physics (Plasma waves and instabilities; Storms and substorms

  17. Short-Term Power Plant GHG Emissions Forecasting Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidovic, D.

    2016-01-01

    In 2010, the share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from power generation in the total emissions at the global level was about 25 percent. From January 1st, 2013 Croatian facilities have been involved in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The share of the ETS sector in total GHG emissions in Croatia in 2012 was about 30 percent, where power plants and heat generation facilities contributed to almost 50 percent. Since 2013 power plants are obliged to purchase all emission allowances. The paper describes the short-term climate forecasting model of greenhouse gas emissions from power plants while covering the daily load diagram of the system. Forecasting is done on an hourly domain typically for one day, it is possible and more days ahead. Forecasting GHG emissions in this way would enable power plant operators to purchase additional or sell surplus allowances on the market at the time. Example that describes the operation of the above mentioned forecasting model is given at the end of the paper.(author).

  18. Long-term structural retinal changes in patients with optic neuritis related to multiple sclerosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andersen MR

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Maria Rene Andersen,1 Malte Roar,2,3 Tobias Sejbaek,2,3 Zsolt Illes,2,3 Jakob Grauslund1,3 1Department of Ophthalmology, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark; 2Department of Neurology, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark; 3Department of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark Purpose: To evaluate the long-term structural and functional outcome in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS with and without a history of optic neuritis (ON.Methods: This was a cross-sectional study of 82 patients diagnosed with MS between 2000 and 2006 from a tertiary hospital center in Denmark. Patients gave a self-reported history of ON, and functional (visual acuity and color vision and structural (spectra domain optical coherence tomography markers of vision were tested.Results: Median age and MS duration at the time of the clinical examination were 49.9 years (range 30.7–72.6 years and 13 years (range 9–15 years, respectively. ON was not associated with impairment of visual acuity or color vision. Twenty-three patients had a history of ON in at least one eye. Compared to non-affected patients, these had a lower inferior (109 vs 113 µm, P=0.04 and temporal retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL thickness (56 vs 67 µm, P=0.01. In an age- and sex-adjusted logistic regression model, lower inferior and temporal RNFL were associated with a higher risk of ON (odds ratio [OR] 1.56 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.01–2.41] and OR 1.74 [95% CI 1.10–2.77] per 10 µm decrement in RNFL thickness, respectively. Twenty patients had a history of ON in one eye. Compared to the non-affected eye, this eye had a lower RNFL (109 vs 115 µm, P=0.04 and a higher central retinal thickness/mean RNFL ratio (2.7 vs 2.4, P=0.04.Conclusion: Although patients with long-term MS and a previous history of ON did not have any functional loss of vision, structural neurodegeneration could be demonstrated in the affected eye. Keywords: optic neuritis

  19. Model and economic uncertainties in balancing short-term and long-term objectives in water-flooding optimization.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siraj, M.M.; Hof, Van den P.M.J.; Jansen, J.D.

    2015-01-01

    Model-based optimization of oil production has a significant scope to increase ultimate recovery or financial life-cycle performance. The Net Present Value (NPV) objective in such an optimization framework, because of its nature, focuses on the long-term gains while the short-term production is not

  20. Constraints on the affinity term for modeling long-term glass dissolution rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourcier, W.L.; Carroll, S.A.; Phillips, B.L.

    1993-11-01

    Predictions of long-term glass dissolution rates are highly dependent on the form of the affinity term in the rate expression. Analysis of the quantitative effect of saturation state on glass dissolution rate for CSG glass (a simple analog of SRL-165 glass), shows that a simple (1-Q/K) affinity term does not match experimental results. Our data at 100 degree C show that the data is better fit by an affinity term having the form (1 - (Q/K) 1 /σ) where σ = 10

  1. An appreciation of the events, models and data used for LMFBR radiological source term estimations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keir, D.; Clough, P.N.

    1989-01-01

    In this report, the events, models and data currently available for analysis of accident source terms in liquid metal cooled fast neutron reactors are reviewed. The types of hypothetical accidents considered are the low probability, more extreme types of severe accident, involving significant degradation of the core and which may lead to the release of radionuclides. The base case reactor design considered is a commercial scale sodium pool reactor of the CDFR type. The feasibility of an integrated calculational approach to radionuclide transport and speciation (such as is used for LWR accident analysis) is explored. It is concluded that there is no fundamental obstacle, in terms of scientific data or understanding of the phenomena involved, to such an approach. However this must be regarded as a long-term goal because of the large amount of effort still required to advance development to a stage comparable with LWR studies. Particular aspects of LMFBR severe accident phenomenology which require attention are the behaviour of radionuclides during core disruptive accident bubble formation and evolution, and during the less rapid sequences of core melt under sodium. The basic requirement for improved thermal hydraulic modelling of core, coolant and structural materials, in these and other scenarios, is highlighted as fundamental to the accuracy and realism of source term estimations. The coupling of such modelling to that of radionuclide behaviour is seen as the key to future development in this area

  2. Long Term Validity of Monetary Exchange Rate Model: Evidence from Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ugur Ahmet

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it was analyzed if there is a long term relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals within the periods of 1998:1-2011:2 in Turkey. This relationship has been analysed by using structural VAR (SVAR model. Besides, Granger causality test and Dolado-Lütkepohl Granger causality test were used to determine if there were a causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals. As a result of the SVAR model, the relationship among the series related to nominal exchange rate and money supply, GDP, interest rate in Turkey in long term were not determined and at the end of causality tests, causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals were not determined.

  3. A modelling study of long term green roof retention performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stovin, Virginia; Poë, Simon; Berretta, Christian

    2013-12-15

    This paper outlines the development of a conceptual hydrological flux model for the long term continuous simulation of runoff and drought risk for green roof systems. A green roof's retention capacity depends upon its physical configuration, but it is also strongly influenced by local climatic controls, including the rainfall characteristics and the restoration of retention capacity associated with evapotranspiration during dry weather periods. The model includes a function that links evapotranspiration rates to substrate moisture content, and is validated against observed runoff data. The model's application to typical extensive green roof configurations is demonstrated with reference to four UK locations characterised by contrasting climatic regimes, using 30-year rainfall time-series inputs at hourly simulation time steps. It is shown that retention performance is dependent upon local climatic conditions. Volumetric retention ranges from 0.19 (cool, wet climate) to 0.59 (warm, dry climate). Per event retention is also considered, and it is demonstrated that retention performance decreases significantly when high return period events are considered in isolation. For example, in Sheffield the median per-event retention is 1.00 (many small events), but the median retention for events exceeding a 1 in 1 yr return period threshold is only 0.10. The simulation tool also provides useful information about the likelihood of drought periods, for which irrigation may be required. A sensitivity study suggests that green roofs with reduced moisture-holding capacity and/or low evapotranspiration rates will tend to offer reduced levels of retention, whilst high moisture-holding capacity and low evapotranspiration rates offer the strongest drought resistance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. On the quark structure of resonance states in dual models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Volkov, D.V.; Zheltukhin, A.A.; Pashnev, A.I.

    1975-01-01

    It is shown using as an example the Veneziano dual model, that each particular dual model already contains a certain latent quark structure unambiauously determined by internal properties of the dual model. To prove this degeneration of the resonance state spectrum is studied by introducing an additional disturbing interaction into the model being considered. Induced transitions of particles into a vacuum act as such an additional disturbance. This method complements the known factorization method of Fubini, Gordon and Veneziano and turns out to be free from an essential limitation of the latter connected with implicit assumption about the basence of internal additive laws of conservation in the model. By using the method of induced transitions of particles into a vacuum it has been possible to show that the resonance state spectrum is indeed more degenerated than it should be expected from the factorization theorem, and that the supplementary degeneration corresponds to the quark model with an infinite number of quarks of the increasing mass. Structures of some terms of the dual amplitude expansion over the degrees of the constant of the induced transition of particles to vacuum are considered; it is shown that the summation of this expansion may be reduced to a solution of a certain integral equation. On the basis of the integral equation obtained an integral representation ofr dual amplitudes is established. The problems related with degeneration of resonance states and with determination of additive quantum numbers leading to the quark interpretation of the degeneration being considered are discussed

  5. Structural equation modeling and natural systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, James B.

    2006-01-01

    This book, first published in 2006, presents an introduction to the methodology of structural equation modeling, illustrates its use, and goes on to argue that it has revolutionary implications for the study of natural systems. A major theme of this book is that we have, up to this point, attempted to study systems primarily using methods (such as the univariate model) that were designed only for considering individual processes. Understanding systems requires the capacity to examine simultaneous influences and responses. Structural equation modeling (SEM) has such capabilities. It also possesses many other traits that add strength to its utility as a means of making scientific progress. In light of the capabilities of SEM, it can be argued that much of ecological theory is currently locked in an immature state that impairs its relevance. It is further argued that the principles of SEM are capable of leading to the development and evaluation of multivariate theories of the sort vitally needed for the conservation of natural systems.

  6. Structured spatio-temporal shot-noise Cox point process models, with a view to modelling forest fires

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Diaz-Avalos, Carlos

    Spatio-temporal Cox point process models with a multiplicative structure for the driving random intensity, incorporating covariate information into temporal and spatial components, and with a residual term modelled by a shot-noise process, are considered. Such models are flexible and tractable fo...... dataset consisting of 2796 days and 5834 spatial locations of fires. The model is compared with a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox point process model, and likelihood-based methods are discussed to some extent....

  7. IT vendor selection model by using structural equation model & analytical hierarchy process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maitra, Sarit; Dominic, P. D. D.

    2012-11-01

    Selecting and evaluating the right vendors is imperative for an organization's global marketplace competitiveness. Improper selection and evaluation of potential vendors can dwarf an organization's supply chain performance. Numerous studies have demonstrated that firms consider multiple criteria when selecting key vendors. This research intends to develop a new hybrid model for vendor selection process with better decision making. The new proposed model provides a suitable tool for assisting decision makers and managers to make the right decisions and select the most suitable vendor. This paper proposes a Hybrid model based on Structural Equation Model (SEM) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for long-term strategic vendor selection problems. The five steps framework of the model has been designed after the thorough literature study. The proposed hybrid model will be applied using a real life case study to assess its effectiveness. In addition, What-if analysis technique will be used for model validation purpose.

  8. Protein structure modeling for CASP10 by multiple layers of global optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joo, Keehyoung; Lee, Juyong; Sim, Sangjin; Lee, Sun Young; Lee, Kiho; Heo, Seungryong; Lee, In-Ho; Lee, Sung Jong; Lee, Jooyoung

    2014-02-01

    In the template-based modeling (TBM) category of CASP10 experiment, we introduced a new protocol called protein modeling system (PMS) to generate accurate protein structures in terms of side-chains as well as backbone trace. In the new protocol, a global optimization algorithm, called conformational space annealing (CSA), is applied to the three layers of TBM procedure: multiple sequence-structure alignment, 3D chain building, and side-chain re-modeling. For 3D chain building, we developed a new energy function which includes new distance restraint terms of Lorentzian type (derived from multiple templates), and new energy terms that combine (physical) energy terms such as dynamic fragment assembly (DFA) energy, DFIRE statistical potential energy, hydrogen bonding term, etc. These physical energy terms are expected to guide the structure modeling especially for loop regions where no template structures are available. In addition, we developed a new quality assessment method based on random forest machine learning algorithm to screen templates, multiple alignments, and final models. For TBM targets of CASP10, we find that, due to the combination of three stages of CSA global optimizations and quality assessment, the modeling accuracy of PMS improves at each additional stage of the protocol. It is especially noteworthy that the side-chains of the final PMS models are far more accurate than the models in the intermediate steps. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Comparison of perceived value structural models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunčana Piri Rajh

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Perceived value has been considered an important determinant of consumer shopping behavior and studied as such for a long period of time. According to one research stream, perceived value is a variable determined by perceived quality and perceived sacrifice. Another research stream suggests that the perception of value is a result of the consumer risk perception. This implies the presence of two somewhat independent research streams that are integrated by a third research stream – the one suggesting that perceived value is a result of perceived quality and perceived sacrifices while perceived (performance and financial risk mediates the relationship between perceived quality and perceived sacrifices on the one hand, and perceived value on the other. This paper describes the three approaches (models that have been mentioned. The aim of the paper is to determine which of the observed models show the most acceptable level of fit to the empirical data. Using the survey method, research involving three product categories has been conducted on a sample of Croatian consumers. Collected data was analyzed by the structural equation modeling (SEM method. Research has shown an appropriate level of fit of each observed model to the empirical data. However, the model measuring the effect of perceived risk on perceived value indicates the best level of fit, which implies that perceived performance risk and perceived financial risk are the best predictors of perceived value.

  10. Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Blanford, Geoffrey [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Young, David [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Marcy, Cara [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Namovicz, Chris [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Edelman, Risa [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Meroney, Bill [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Sims, Ryan [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Stenhouse, Jeb [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision-makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators — primarily wind and solar photovoltaics — the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. This report summarizes the analyses and model experiments that were conducted as part of two workshops on modeling VRE for national-scale capacity expansion models. It discusses the various methods for treating VRE among four modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The report reviews the findings from the two workshops and emphasizes the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making. This research is intended to inform the energy modeling community on the modeling of variable renewable resources, and is not intended to advocate for or against any particular energy technologies, resources, or policies.

  11. Considering extraction constraints in long-term oil price modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer; Voss, Alfred

    2005-12-15

    Apart from divergence about the remaining global oil resources, the peak oil discussion can be reduced to a dispute about the time rate at which these resources can be supplied. On the one hand it is problematic to project oil supply trends without taking both - prices as well as supply costs - explicitly into account. On the other hand are supply cost estimates however itself heavily dependent on the underlying extraction rates and are actually only valid within a certain business-as-usual extraction rate scenario (which itself is the task to determine). In fact, even after having applied enhanced recovery technologies, the rate at which an oil field can be exploited is quite restricted. Above a certain level an additional extraction rate increase can only be costly achieved at risks of losses in the overall recoverable amounts of the oil reservoir and causes much higher marginal cost. This inflexibility in extraction can be overcome in principle by the access to new oil fields. This indicates why the discovery trend may roughly form the long-term oil production curve, at least for price-taking suppliers. The long term oil discovery trend itself can be described as a logistic process with the two opposed effects of learning and depletion. This leads to the well-known Hubbert curve. Several attempts have been made to incorporate economic variables econometrically into the Hubbert model. With this work we follow a somewhat inverse approach and integrate Hubbert curves in our Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction model LOPEX. In LOPEX we assume that non-OPEC oil production - as long as the oil can be profitably discovered and extracted - is restricted to follow self-regulative discovery trends described by Hubbert curves. Non-OPEC production in LOPEX therefore consists of those Hubbert cycles that are profitable, depending on supply cost and price. Endogenous and exogenous technical progress is extra integrated in different ways. LOPEX determines extraction and price

  12. Considering extraction constraints in long-term oil price modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer; Voss, Alfred

    2005-01-01

    Apart from divergence about the remaining global oil resources, the peak oil discussion can be reduced to a dispute about the time rate at which these resources can be supplied. On the one hand it is problematic to project oil supply trends without taking both - prices as well as supply costs - explicitly into account. On the other hand are supply cost estimates however itself heavily dependent on the underlying extraction rates and are actually only valid within a certain business-as-usual extraction rate scenario (which itself is the task to determine). In fact, even after having applied enhanced recovery technologies, the rate at which an oil field can be exploited is quite restricted. Above a certain level an additional extraction rate increase can only be costly achieved at risks of losses in the overall recoverable amounts of the oil reservoir and causes much higher marginal cost. This inflexibility in extraction can be overcome in principle by the access to new oil fields. This indicates why the discovery trend may roughly form the long-term oil production curve, at least for price-taking suppliers. The long term oil discovery trend itself can be described as a logistic process with the two opposed effects of learning and depletion. This leads to the well-known Hubbert curve. Several attempts have been made to incorporate economic variables econometrically into the Hubbert model. With this work we follow a somewhat inverse approach and integrate Hubbert curves in our Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction model LOPEX. In LOPEX we assume that non-OPEC oil production - as long as the oil can be profitably discovered and extracted - is restricted to follow self-regulative discovery trends described by Hubbert curves. Non-OPEC production in LOPEX therefore consists of those Hubbert cycles that are profitable, depending on supply cost and price. Endogenous and exogenous technical progress is extra integrated in different ways. LOPEX determines extraction and price

  13. Uncertainty in parameterisation and model structure affect simulation results in coupled ecohydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Arnold

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we develop and apply a conceptual ecohydrological model to investigate the effects of model structure and parameter uncertainty on the simulation of vegetation structure and hydrological dynamics. The model is applied for a typical water limited riparian ecosystem along an ephemeral river: the middle section of the Kuiseb River in Namibia. We modelled this system by coupling an ecological model with a conceptual hydrological model. The hydrological model is storage based with stochastical forcing from the flood. The ecosystem is modelled with a population model, and represents three dominating riparian plant populations. In appreciation of uncertainty about population dynamics, we applied three model versions with increasing complexity. Population parameters were found by Latin hypercube sampling of the parameter space and with the constraint that three species should coexist as observed. Two of the three models were able to reproduce the observed coexistence. However, both models relied on different coexistence mechanisms, and reacted differently to change of long term memory in the flood forcing. The coexistence requirement strongly constrained the parameter space for both successful models. Only very few parameter sets (0.5% of 150 000 samples allowed for coexistence in a representative number of repeated simulations (at least 10 out of 100 and the success of the coexistence mechanism was controlled by the combination of population parameters. The ensemble statistics of average values of hydrologic variables like transpiration and depth to ground water were similar for both models, suggesting that they were mainly controlled by the applied hydrological model. The ensemble statistics of the fluctuations of depth to groundwater and transpiration, however, differed significantly, suggesting that they were controlled by the applied ecological model and coexistence mechanisms. Our study emphasizes that uncertainty about ecosystem

  14. Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ettore Bernardoni

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1, the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model able to simulate, under different pedoclimatic conditions, the processes involved in cropping system such as crop growth and development, water and nitrogen balance. It implements different approaches in order to ensure accurate simulation of the mainprocess related to soil-crop-atmosphere continuum.The model was calibrated using soil data, crop yield, AGB and phenology coming from a long-term experiment, located in Apulia region. The calibration was performed using data collected in the period 1978–1990; validation was carried out on the 1991–2009 data. Phenology simulation was sufficiently accurate, showing some limitation only in predicting the physiological maturity. Yields and AGBs were predicted with an acceptable accuracy during both calibration and validation. CRM resulted always close to optimum value, EF in every case scored positive value, the value of index r2 was good, although in some cases values lower than 0.6 were calculated. Slope of the linear regression equation between measured and simulated values was always close to 1, indicating an overall good performance of the model. Both future climate scenarios led to a general increase in yields but a slightly decrease in AGB values. Data showed variations in the total production and yield among the different periods due to the climate variation. TOC evolution suggests that the combination of temperature and precipitation is the main factor affecting TOC variation under future scenarios

  15. Forecasting Long-Term Crude Oil Prices Using a Bayesian Model with Informative Priors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chul-Yong Lee

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the long-term, crude oil prices may impact the economic stability and sustainability of many countries, especially those depending on oil imports. This study thus suggests an alternative model for accurately forecasting oil prices while reflecting structural changes in the oil market by using a Bayesian approach. The prior information is derived from the recent and expected structure of the oil market, using a subjective approach, and then updated with available market data. The model includes as independent variables factors affecting oil prices, such as world oil demand and supply, the financial situation, upstream costs, and geopolitical events. To test the model’s forecasting performance, it is compared with other models, including a linear ordinary least squares model and a neural network model. The proposed model outperforms on the forecasting performance test even though the neural network model shows the best results on a goodness-of-fit test. The results show that the crude oil price is estimated to increase to $169.3/Bbl by 2040.

  16. Source-term model for the SYVAC3-NSURE performance assessment code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowat, J.H.; Rattan, D.S.; Dolinar, G.M.

    1996-11-01

    Radionuclide contaminants in wastes emplaced in disposal facilities will not remain in those facilities indefinitely. Engineered barriers will eventually degrade, allowing radioactivity to escape from the vault. The radionuclide release rate from a low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) disposal facility, the source term, is a key component in the performance assessment of the disposal system. This report describes the source-term model that has been implemented in Ver. 1.03 of the SYVAC3-NSURE (Systems Variability Analysis Code generation 3-Near Surface Repository) code. NSURE is a performance assessment code that evaluates the impact of near-surface disposal of LLRW through the groundwater pathway. The source-term model described here was developed for the Intrusion Resistant Underground Structure (IRUS) disposal facility, which is a vault that is to be located in the unsaturated overburden at AECL's Chalk River Laboratories. The processes included in the vault model are roof and waste package performance, and diffusion, advection and sorption of radionuclides in the vault backfill. The model presented here was developed for the IRUS vault; however, it is applicable to other near-surface disposal facilities. (author). 40 refs., 6 figs

  17. Structure of Pioncare covariant tensor operators in quantum mechanical models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polyzou, W.N.; Klink, W.H.

    1988-01-01

    The structure of operators that transform covariantly in Poincare invariant quantum mechanical models is analyzed. These operators are shown to have an interaction dependence that comes from the geometry of the Poincare group. The operators can be expressed in terms of matrix elements in a complete set of eigenstates of the mass and spin operators associated with the dynamical representation of the Poincare group. The matrix elements are factored into geometrical coefficients (Clebsch--Gordan coefficients for the Poincare group) and invariant matrix elements. The geometrical coefficients are fixed by the transformation properties of the operator and the eigenvalue spectrum of the mass and spin. The invariant matrix elements, which distinguish between different operators with the same transformation properties, are given in terms of a set of invariant form factors. copyright 1988 Academic Press, Inc

  18. A performance measurement using balanced scorecard and structural equation modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosha Makvandi

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available During the past few years, balanced scorecard (BSC has been widely used as a promising method for performance measurement. BSC studies organizations in terms of four perspectives including customer, internal processes, learning and growth and financial figures. This paper presents a hybrid of BSC and structural equation modeling (SEM to measure the performance of an Iranian university in province of Alborz, Iran. The proposed study of this paper uses this conceptual method, designs a questionnaire and distributes it among some university students and professors. Using SEM technique, the survey analyzes the data and the results indicate that the university did poorly in terms of all four perspectives. The survey extracts necessary target improvement by presenting necessary attributes for performance improvement.

  19. The structural bases of long-term anabiosis in non-spore-forming bacteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzina, Natalia E.; Mulyukin, Andrey L.; Dmitriev, Vladimir V.; Nikolaev, Yury A.; Shorokhova, Anna P.; Bobkova, Yulia S.; Barinova, Ekaterina S.; Plakunov, Vladimir K.; El-Registan, Galina I.; Duda, Vitalii I.

    2006-01-01

    Peculiarities of the structural organization in non-spore-forming bacteria associated with long-term anabiosis were revealed both in laboratory cultures and in natural populations isolated from 1 3-Myr-old Eastern Siberian permafrost and tundra soil. Different advanced methods were used, including (a) high-resolution electron microscopy; (b) simulation of in situ conditions in the laboratory by varying the composition of growth medium and cultivation conditions; (c) low-temperature fractionation to isolate and concentrate microbial cells from natural soils; (d) comparative morphological analysis of microbial cells in model cultures and natural soils (in situ). Under laboratory conditions, the intense formation of resting cells by representatives of various taxa of eubacteria and halophilic archaea occurred in 2 9-month-old cultures grown in carbon-, nitrogen-, or phosphorus-limited media, in starved cell suspensions in the presence of sodium silicate, or on soil agar. Among resting cells, we revealed cystlike forms having a complicated structure and common features. These included a thick capsule; a thickened and multiprofile cell wall; the presence of large intramembrane particles on PF- and EF-fracture surfaces; fine-grained or lumpy cytoplasm; and a condensed nucleoid. The general morphological properties, ultrastructural organization, physiological features of cystlike cells, and their ability to germinate under the appropriate conditions suggest the existence of constitutive dormancy in non-spore-forming bacteria. It was found that the majority of microorganisms in permafrost and tundra soil are cystlike cells, very similar to those in laboratory cultures. Anabiotic (resting) cystlike cells are responsible for the survival of non-spore-formers in extreme Earth habitats and may be regarded as possible analogs of extraterrestrial forms of microbial life.

  20. Creating a Long-Term Diabetic Rabbit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianpu Wang

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This study was to create a long-term rabbit model of diabetes mellitus for medical studies of up to one year or longer and to evaluate the effects of chronic hyperglycemia on damage of major organs. A single dose of alloxan monohydrate (100 mg/kg was given intravenously to 20 young New Zealand White rabbits. Another 12 age-matched normal rabbits were used as controls. Hyperglycemia developed within 48 hours after treatment with alloxan. Insulin was given daily after diabetes developed. All animals gained some body weight, but the gain was much less than the age-matched nondiabetic rabbits. Hyperlipidemia, higher blood urea nitrogen and creatinine were found in the diabetic animals. Histologically, the pancreas showed marked beta cell damage. The kidneys showed significantly thickened afferent glomerular arterioles with narrowed lumens along with glomerular atrophy. Lipid accumulation in the cytoplasm of hepatocytes appeared as vacuoles. Full-thickness skin wound healing was delayed. In summary, with careful management, alloxan-induced diabetic rabbits can be maintained for one year or longer in reasonably good health for diabetic studies.

  1. Spot markets vs. long-term contracts - modelling tools for regional electricity generating utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grohnheit, P.E.

    1999-01-01

    A properly organised market for electricity requires that some information will be available for all market participants. Also a range of generally available modelling tools are necessary. This paper describes a set of simple models based on published data for analyses of the long-term revenues of regional utilities with combined heat and power generation (CHP), who will operate a competitive international electricity market and a local heat market. The future revenues from trade on the spot market is analysed using a load curve model, in which marginal costs are calculated on the basis of short-term costs of the available units and chronological hourly variations in the demands for electricity and heat. Assumptions on prices, marginal costs and electricity generation by the different types of generating units are studied for selected types of local electricity generators. The long-term revenue requirements to be met by long-term contracts are analysed using a traditional techno-economic optimisation model focusing on technology choice and competition among technologies over 20.30 years. A possible conclusion from this discussion is that it is important for the economic and environmental efficiency of the electricity market that local or regional generators of CHP, who are able to react on price signals, do not conclude long-term contracts that include fixed time-of-day tariff for sale of electricity. Optimisation results for a CHP region (represented by the structure of the Danish electricity and CHP market in 1995) also indicates that a market for CO 2 tradable permits is unlikely to attract major non-fossil fuel technologies for electricity generation, e.g. wind power. (au)

  2. Structure model of energy efficiency indicators and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Li-Ming; Chen, Bai-Sheng; Bor, Yun-Chang; Wu, Yin-Chin

    2007-01-01

    For the purposes of energy conservation and environmental protection, the government of Taiwan has instigated long-term policies to continuously encourage and assist industry in improving the efficiency of energy utilization. While multiple actions have led to practical energy saving to a limited extent, no strong evidence of improvement in energy efficiency was observed from the energy efficiency indicators (EEI) system, according to the annual national energy statistics and survey. A structural analysis of EEI is needed in order to understand the role that energy efficiency plays in the EEI system. This work uses the Taylor series expansion to develop a structure model for EEI at the level of the process sector of industry. The model is developed on the premise that the design parameters of the process are used in comparison with the operational parameters for energy differences. The utilization index of production capability and the variation index of energy utilization are formulated in the model to describe the differences between EEIs. Both qualitative and quantitative methods for the analysis of energy efficiency and energy savings are derived from the model. Through structural analysis, the model showed that, while the performance of EEI is proportional to the process utilization index of production capability, it is possible that energy may develop in a direction opposite to that of EEI. This helps to explain, at least in part, the inconsistency between EEI and energy savings. An energy-intensive steel plant in Taiwan was selected to show the application of the model. The energy utilization efficiency of the plant was evaluated and the amount of energy that had been saved or over-used in the production process was estimated. Some insights gained from the model outcomes are helpful to further enhance energy efficiency in the plant

  3. Structural Model Error and Decision Relevancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldsby, M.; Lusk, G.

    2017-12-01

    The extent to which climate models can underwrite specific climate policies has long been a contentious issue. Skeptics frequently deny that climate models are trustworthy in an attempt to undermine climate action, whereas policy makers often desire information that exceeds the capabilities of extant models. While not skeptics, a group of mathematicians and philosophers [Frigg et al. (2014)] recently argued that even tiny differences between the structure of a complex dynamical model and its target system can lead to dramatic predictive errors, possibly resulting in disastrous consequences when policy decisions are based upon those predictions. They call this result the Hawkmoth effect (HME), and seemingly use it to rebuke rightwing proposals to forgo mitigation in favor of adaptation. However, a vigorous debate has emerged between Frigg et al. on one side and another philosopher-mathematician pair [Winsberg and Goodwin (2016)] on the other. On one hand, Frigg et al. argue that their result shifts the burden to climate scientists to demonstrate that their models do not fall prey to the HME. On the other hand, Winsberg and Goodwin suggest that arguments like those asserted by Frigg et al. can be, if taken seriously, "dangerous": they fail to consider the variety of purposes for which models can be used, and thus too hastily undermine large swaths of climate science. They put the burden back on Frigg et al. to show their result has any effect on climate science. This paper seeks to attenuate this debate by establishing an irenic middle position; we find that there is more agreement between sides than it first seems. We distinguish a `decision standard' from a `burden of proof', which helps clarify the contributions to the debate from both sides. In making this distinction, we argue that scientists bear the burden of assessing the consequences of HME, but that the standard Frigg et al. adopt for decision relevancy is too strict.

  4. Features of construction of structures in long-term training acrobatics at the modern stage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.V. Bachynska

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: the basic directions of the structure of long-term training in sports acrobatics are ground. The objectives of the study was to determine the leading requirements and criteria, the main stages of a multi-year training in acrobatics. Material : analysis of special scientific and methodical literature, revealing the specific features of the construction of long-term training in sports and gymnastics, acrobatic rock 'n' roll, a number of other sports. Results : general structure, goals, objectives and provisions of the basic stages of a multi-year training in sports acrobatics. Singled leading indicators and criteria for each of the main stages of long-term sports training in acrobatics. Recommended duration of training sessions and key requirements for the preparation of acrobats. Conclusions : outlines the main requirements and benchmarks that can guide the trainer in a training and competitive activity when working with acrobats all age groups and different sports qualification.

  5. Ice films follow structure zone model morphologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cartwright, Julyan H.E.; Escribano, Bruno; Sainz-Diaz, C. Ignacio

    2010-01-01

    Ice films deposited at temperatures of 6-220 K and at low pressures in situ in a cryo-environmental scanning electron microscope show pronounced morphologies at the mesoscale consistent with the structure zone model of film growth. Water vapour was injected directly inside the chamber at ambient pressures ranging from 10 -4 Pa to 10 2 Pa. Several different substrates were used to exclude the influence of their morphology on the grown films. At the lowest temperatures the ice, which under these conditions is amorphous on the molecular scale, shows the mesoscale morphologies typical of the low-temperature zones of the structure zone model (SZM), including cauliflower, transition, spongelike and matchstick morphologies. Our experiments confirm that the SZM is independent of the chemical nature of the adsorbate, although the intermolecular interactions in water (hydrogen bonds) are different to those in ceramics or metals. At higher temperatures, on the other hand, where the ice is hexagonal crystalline on the molecular scale, it displays a complex palmlike morphology on the mesoscale.

  6. Ice films follow structure zone model morphologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cartwright, Julyan H.E. [Instituto Andaluz de Ciencias de la Tierra, CSIC-Universidad de Granada, E-18071 Granada (Spain); Escribano, Bruno, E-mail: bruno.escribano.salazar@gmail.co [Instituto Andaluz de Ciencias de la Tierra, CSIC-Universidad de Granada, E-18071 Granada (Spain); Sainz-Diaz, C. Ignacio [Instituto Andaluz de Ciencias de la Tierra, CSIC-Universidad de Granada, E-18071 Granada (Spain)

    2010-04-02

    Ice films deposited at temperatures of 6-220 K and at low pressures in situ in a cryo-environmental scanning electron microscope show pronounced morphologies at the mesoscale consistent with the structure zone model of film growth. Water vapour was injected directly inside the chamber at ambient pressures ranging from 10{sup -4} Pa to 10{sup 2} Pa. Several different substrates were used to exclude the influence of their morphology on the grown films. At the lowest temperatures the ice, which under these conditions is amorphous on the molecular scale, shows the mesoscale morphologies typical of the low-temperature zones of the structure zone model (SZM), including cauliflower, transition, spongelike and matchstick morphologies. Our experiments confirm that the SZM is independent of the chemical nature of the adsorbate, although the intermolecular interactions in water (hydrogen bonds) are different to those in ceramics or metals. At higher temperatures, on the other hand, where the ice is hexagonal crystalline on the molecular scale, it displays a complex palmlike morphology on the mesoscale.

  7. Modeling Insurgent Network Structure and Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabbay, Michael; Thirkill-Mackelprang, Ashley

    2010-03-01

    We present a methodology for mapping insurgent network structure based on their public rhetoric. Indicators of cooperative links between insurgent groups at both the leadership and rank-and-file levels are used, such as joint policy statements or joint operations claims. In addition, a targeting policy measure is constructed on the basis of insurgent targeting claims. Network diagrams which integrate these measures of insurgent cooperation and ideology are generated for different periods of the Iraqi and Afghan insurgencies. The network diagrams exhibit meaningful changes which track the evolution of the strategic environment faced by insurgent groups. Correlations between targeting policy and network structure indicate that insurgent targeting claims are aimed at establishing a group identity among the spectrum of rank-and-file insurgency supporters. A dynamical systems model of insurgent alliance formation and factionalism is presented which evolves the relationship between insurgent group dyads as a function of their ideological differences and their current relationships. The ability of the model to qualitatively and quantitatively capture insurgent network dynamics observed in the data is discussed.

  8. A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoping Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day’s Air Quality Index (AQI prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300 the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3–7 days’ AQI prediction.

  9. Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany A. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Blanford, Geoffrey [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Young, David [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Marcy, Cara [Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Namovicz, Chris [Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Edelman, Risa [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Meroney, Bill [Environmental Protection Agency; Sims, Ryan [Environmental Protection Agency; Stenhouse, Jeb [Environmental Protection Agency; Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [U.S. Department of Energy

    2017-11-03

    Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. To assess current best practices, share methods and data, and identify future research needs for VRE representation in capacity expansion models, four capacity expansion modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted two workshops of VRE modeling for national-scale capacity expansion models. The workshops covered a wide range of VRE topics, including transmission and VRE resource data, VRE capacity value, dispatch and operational modeling, distributed generation, and temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of the workshops were both to better understand these topics and to improve the representation of VRE across the suite of models. Given these goals, each team incorporated model updates and performed additional analyses between the first and second workshops. This report summarizes the analyses and model 'experiments' that were conducted as part of these workshops as well as the various methods for treating VRE among the four modeling teams. The report also reviews the findings and learnings from the two workshops. We emphasize the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making.

  10. A case study on the influence of multiscale modelling in design and structural analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicholas, Paul; Zwierzycki, Mateusz; La Magna, Riccardo

    2017-01-01

    . To illustrate the concept of multi-scale modelling, the prototype of a bridge structure that was realised making use of this information transfer between models will be presented. The prototype primarily takes advantage of the geometric and material stiffening effect of incremental metal forming. The local......The current paper discusses the role of multi-scale modelling within the context of design and structural analysis. Depending on the level of detail, a design model may retain, lose or enhance key information. The term multi-scale refers to the break-down of a design and analysis task into multiple...... levels of detail and the transfer of this information between models. Focusing on the influence that different models have on the analysed performance of the structure, the paper will discuss the advantages and trade-offs of coupling multiple levels of abstraction in terms of design and structure...

  11. The establishment of a method for evaluating the long-term water-tightness durability of underground concrete structure taking into account some deteriorations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hironaga, Michihiko; Kawanishi, Motoi

    1996-01-01

    To establish a method of evaluating the long-term water-tightness durability of underground concrete structures, the authors firstly studied a deterioration evaluation model to express the deterioration condition of concrete structures and constructed, on the basis of this model, a function evaluation model to estimate the lowering of functions due to deterioration, consequently indicating a 'concept for evaluating the deterioration and functions of concrete structures' which will make it possible to perform the functional evaluation of concrete structures. Based on this concept, the authors then discusses a technique for evaluating the long-term water-tightness durability of underground concrete structures, specifically indicating the technique by means of illustrations. (author)

  12. Long-term real-time structural health monitoring using wireless smart sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Shinae; Mensah-Bonsu, Priscilla O.; Li, Jingcheng; Dahal, Sushil

    2013-04-01

    Improving the safety and security of civil infrastructure has become a critical issue for decades since it plays a central role in the economics and politics of a modern society. Structural health monitoring of civil infrastructure using wireless smart sensor network has emerged as a promising solution recently to increase structural reliability, enhance inspection quality, and reduce maintenance costs. Though hardware and software framework are well prepared for wireless smart sensors, the long-term real-time health monitoring strategy are still not available due to the lack of systematic interface. In this paper, the Imote2 smart sensor platform is employed, and a graphical user interface for the long-term real-time structural health monitoring has been developed based on Matlab for the Imote2 platform. This computer-aided engineering platform enables the control, visualization of measured data as well as safety alarm feature based on modal property fluctuation. A new decision making strategy to check the safety is also developed and integrated in this software. Laboratory validation of the computer aided engineering platform for the Imote2 on a truss bridge and a building structure has shown the potential of the interface for long-term real-time structural health monitoring.

  13. Modeling Equity for Alternative Water Rate Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, R.; Mjelde, J.

    2011-12-01

    The rising popularity of increasing block rates for urban water runs counter to mainstream economic recommendations, yet decision makers in rate design forums are attracted to the notion of higher prices for larger users. Among economists, it is widely appreciated that uniform rates have stronger efficiency properties than increasing block rates, especially when volumetric prices incorporate intrinsic water value. Yet, except for regions where water market purchases have forced urban authorities to include water value in water rates, economic arguments have weakly penetrated policy. In this presentation, recent evidence will be reviewed regarding long term trends in urban rate structures while observing economic principles pertaining to these choices. The main objective is to investigate the equity of increasing block rates as contrasted to uniform rates for a representative city. Using data from four Texas cities, household water demand is established as a function of marginal price, income, weather, number of residents, and property characteristics. Two alternative rate proposals are designed on the basis of recent experiences for both water and wastewater rates. After specifying a reasonable number (~200) of diverse households populating the city and parameterizing each household's characteristics, every household's consumption selections are simulated for twelve months. This procedure is repeated for both rate systems. Monthly water and wastewater bills are also computed for each household. Most importantly, while balancing the budget of the city utility we compute the effect of switching rate structures on the welfares of households of differing types. Some of the empirical findings are as follows. Under conditions of absent water scarcity, households of opposing characters such as low versus high income do not have strong preferences regarding rate structure selection. This changes as water scarcity rises and as water's opportunity costs are allowed to

  14. Dowel-type fastener connections in timber structures subjected to short-term loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauritzen Jensen, J.

    Design of dowel-type fastener connections in framed timber structures usually involves a two-step analysis: determination of the distribution of the sectional forces, and design of the eccentrically loaded connections. This report presents an integrated model for design of framed timber structures...

  15. Target-Dependent Structural Changes Accompanying Long-Term Synaptic Facilitation in Aplysia Neurons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glanzman, David L.; Kandel, Eric R.; Schacher, Samuel

    1990-08-01

    The mechanisms underlying structural changes that accompany learning and memory have been difficult to investigate in the intact nervous system. In order to make these changes more accessible for experimental analysis, dissociated cell culture and low-light-level video microscopy were used to examine Aplysia sensory neurons in the presence or absence of their target cells. Repeated applications of serotonin, a facilitating transmitter important in behavioral dishabituation and sensitization, produced growth of the sensory neurons that paralleled the long-term enhancement of synaptic strength. This growth required the presence of the postsynaptic motor neuron. Thus, both the structural changes and the synaptic facilitation of Aplysia sensorimotor synapses accompanying long-term behavioral sensitization can be produced in vitro by applying a single facilitating transmitter repeatedly. These structural changes depend on an interaction of the presynaptic neuron with an appropriate postsynaptic target.

  16. The Model of Complex Structure of Quark

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Rongwu

    2017-09-01

    In Quantum Chromodynamics, quark is known as a kind of point-like fundamental particle which carries mass, charge, color, and flavor, strong interaction takes place between quarks by means of exchanging intermediate particles-gluons. An important consequence of this theory is that, strong interaction is a kind of short-range force, and it has the features of ``asymptotic freedom'' and ``quark confinement''. In order to reveal the nature of strong interaction, the ``bag'' model of vacuum and the ``string'' model of string theory were proposed in the context of quantum mechanics, but neither of them can provide a clear interaction mechanism. This article formulates a new mechanism by proposing a model of complex structure of quark, it can be outlined as follows: (1) Quark (as well as electron, etc) is a kind of complex structure, it is composed of fundamental particle (fundamental matter mass and electricity) and fundamental volume field (fundamental matter flavor and color) which exists in the form of limited volume; fundamental particle lies in the center of fundamental volume field, forms the ``nucleus'' of quark. (2) As static electric force, the color field force between quarks has classical form, it is proportional to the square of the color quantity carried by each color field, and inversely proportional to the area of cross section of overlapping color fields which is along force direction, it has the properties of overlap, saturation, non-central, and constant. (3) Any volume field undergoes deformation when interacting with other volume field, the deformation force follows Hooke's law. (4) The phenomena of ``asymptotic freedom'' and ``quark confinement'' are the result of color field force and deformation force.

  17. Hydrogeological structure model of the Olkiluoto Site. Update in 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaittinen, T.; Ahokas, H.; Nummela, J.; Paulamaeki, S.

    2011-09-01

    As part of the programme for the final disposal of spent nuclear fuel, a hydrogeological structure model containing the hydraulically significant zones on Olkiluoto Island has been compiled. The structure model describes the deterministic site scale zones that dominate the groundwater flow. The main objective of the study is to provide the geometry and the hydrogeological properties related to the groundwater flow for the zones and the sparsely fractured bedrock to be used in the numerical modelling of groundwater flow and geochemical transport and thereby in the safety assessment. Also, these zones should be taken into account in the repository layout and in the construction of the disposal facility and they have a long-term impact on the evolution of the site and the safety of the disposal repository. The previous hydrogeological model was compiled in 2008 and this updated version is based on data available at the end of May 2010. The updating was based on new hydrogeological observations and a systematic approach covering all drillholes to assess measured fracture transmissivities typical of the site-scale hydrogeological zones. New data consisted of head observations and interpreted pressure and flow responses caused by field activities. Essential background data for the modelling included the ductile deformation model and the site scale brittle deformation zones modelled in the geological model version 2.0. The GSM combine both geological and geophysical investigation data on the site. As a result of the modelling campaign, hydrogeological zones HZ001, HZ008, HZ19A, HZ19B, HZ19C, HZ20A, HZ20B, HZ21, HZ21B, HZ039, HZ099, OL-BFZ100, and HZ146 were included in the structure model. Compared with the previous model, zone HZ004 was replaced with zone HZ146 and zone HZ039 was introduced for the first time. Alternative zone HZ21B was included in the basic model. For the modelled zones, both the zone intersections, describing the fractures with dominating groundwater

  18. Direct numerical methods of mathematical modeling in mechanical structural design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahili, Jihad; Verchery, Georges; Ghaddar, Ahmad; Zoaeter, Mohamed

    2002-01-01

    Full text.Structural design and numerical methods are generally interactive; requiring optimization procedures as the structure is analyzed. This analysis leads to define some mathematical terms, as the stiffness matrix, which are resulting from the modeling and then used in numerical techniques during the dimensioning procedure. These techniques and many others involve the calculation of the generalized inverse of the stiffness matrix, called also the 'compliance matrix'. The aim of this paper is to introduce first, some different existing mathematical procedures, used to calculate the compliance matrix from the stiffness matrix, then apply direct numerical methods to solve the obtained system with the lowest computational time, and to compare the obtained results. The results show a big difference of the computational time between the different procedures

  19. Aerospace structural design process improvement using systematic evolutionary structural modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Robert Michael

    2000-10-01

    A multidisciplinary team tasked with an aircraft design problem must understand the problem requirements and metrics to produce a successful design. This understanding entails not only knowledge of what these requirements and metrics are, but also how they interact, which are most important (to the customer as well as to aircraft performance), and who in the organization can provide pertinent knowledge for each. In recent years, product development researchers and organizations have developed and successfully applied a variety of tools such as Quality Function Deployment (QFD) to coordinate multidisciplinary team members. The effectiveness of these methods, however, depends on the quality and fidelity of the information that team members can input. In conceptual aircraft design, structural information is of lower quality compared to aerodynamics or performance because it is based on experience rather than theory. This dissertation shows how advanced structural design tools can be used in a multidisciplinary team setting to improve structural information generation and communication through a systematic evolution of structural detail. When applied to conceptual design, finite element-based structural design tools elevate structural information to the same level as other computationally supported disciplines. This improved ability to generate and communicate structural information enables a design team to better identify and meet structural design requirements, consider producibility issues earlier, and evaluate structural concepts. A design process experiment of a wing structural layout in collaboration with an industrial partner illustrates and validates the approach.

  20. Family Environment and Childhood Obesity: A New Framework with Structural Equation Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Hui; Wan Mohamed Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah bt; Salarzadeh Jenatabadi, Hashem

    2017-01-01

    The main purpose of the current article is to introduce a framework of the complexity of childhood obesity based on the family environment. A conceptual model that quantifies the relationships and interactions among parental socioeconomic status, family food security level, child’s food intake and certain aspects of parental feeding behaviour is presented using the structural equation modeling (SEM) concept. Structural models are analysed in terms of the direct and indirect connections among ...

  1. Verification of atmospheric diffusion models using data of long term atmospheric diffusion experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamura, Junji; Kido, Hiroko; Hato, Shinji; Homma, Toshimitsu

    2009-03-01

    Straight-line or segmented plume models as atmospheric diffusion models are commonly used in probabilistic accident consequence assessment (PCA) codes due to cost and time savings. The PCA code, OSCAAR developed by Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (Present; Japan Atomic Energy Agency) uses the variable puff trajectory model to calculate atmospheric transport and dispersion of released radionuclides. In order to investigate uncertainties involved with the structure of the atmospheric dispersion/deposition model in OSCAAR, we have introduced the more sophisticated computer codes that included regional meteorological models RAMS and atmospheric transport model HYPACT, which were developed by Colorado State University, and comparative analyses between OSCAAR and RAMS/HYPACT have been performed. In this study, model verification of OSCAAR and RAMS/HYPACT was conducted using data of long term atmospheric diffusion experiments, which were carried out in Tokai-mura, Ibaraki-ken. The predictions by models and the results of the atmospheric diffusion experiments indicated relatively good agreements. And it was shown that model performance of OSCAAR was the same degree as it of RAMS/HYPACT. (author)

  2. Modelling of structural effects on chemical reactions in turbulent flows

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gammelsaeter, H.R.

    1997-12-31

    Turbulence-chemistry interactions are analysed using algebraic moment closure for the chemical reaction term. The coupling between turbulence and chemical length and time scales generate a complex interaction process. This interaction process is called structural effects in this work. The structural effects are shown to take place on all scales between the largest scale of turbulence and the scales of the molecular motions. The set of equations describing turbulent correlations involved in turbulent reacting flows are derived. Interactions are shown schematically using interaction charts. Algebraic equations for the turbulent correlations in the reaction rate are given using the interaction charts to include the most significant couplings. In the frame of fundamental combustion physics, the structural effects appearing on the small scales of turbulence are proposed modelled using a discrete spectrum of turbulent scales. The well-known problem of averaging the Arrhenius law, the specific reaction rate, is proposed solved using a presumed single variable probability density function and a sub scale model for the reaction volume. Although some uncertainties are expected, the principles are addressed. Fast chemistry modelling is shown to be consistent in the frame of algebraic moment closure when the turbulence-chemistry interaction is accounted for in the turbulent diffusion. The modelling proposed in this thesis is compared with experimental data for an laboratory methane flame and advanced probability density function modelling. The results show promising features. Finally it is shown a comparison with full scale measurements for an industrial burner. All features of the burner are captured with the model. 41 refs., 33 figs.

  3. Marine and Coastal Morphology: medium term and long-term area modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Sten Esbjørn

    This thesis documents development and application of a modelling concept developed in collaboration between DTU and DHI. The modelling concept is used in morphological modelling in coastal areas where the governing sediment transport processes are due to wave action. The modelling concept...... is defined: Hybrid morphological modelling and it is based on coupling calculated sediment transport fields from a traditional process based coastal area model with a parametrised morphological evolution model. The focus of this study is to explore possible parametric formulations of the morphological...... solution has a two dimensional nature. 1.5D shoreline model A so-called “1.5D” implementation which introduces redistribution of sediment within a coastal profile in response to horizontal 2D currents makes it possible to simulate the morphological development in areas where 2D evolution occurs...

  4. The effect of classroom structure on verbal and physical aggression among peers: a short-term longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergsmann, Evelyn M; Van De Schoot, Rens; Schober, Barbara; Finsterwald, Monika; Spiel, Christiane

    2013-04-01

    Teachers promote student learning and well-being in school by establishing a supportive classroom structure. The term classroom structure refers to how teachers design tasks, maintain authority, and evaluate student achievement. Although empirical studies have shown the relation of classroom structure to student motivation, achievement, and well-being, no prior investigations have examined the influence of classroom structure on aggression among peers. The present study examined whether a supportive classroom structure has an impact on verbal and physical aggression. At two points in time, data were collected from 1680 students in Grades 5 to 7 using self-report questionnaires. The results of structural equation modeling revealed that a supportive classroom structure at Time 1 was associated with less perpetrated verbal aggression at Time 2, 9months later. This finding has practical relevance for teacher training as well as for aggression prevention and intervention among children. Copyright © 2012 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Modelling long-term oil price and extraction with a Hubbert approach: The LOPEX model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer

    2006-01-01

    The LOPEX (Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction) model generates long-term scenarios about future world oil supply and corresponding price paths up to the year 2100. In order to determine oil production in non-OPEC countries, the model uses Hubbert curves. Hubbert curves reflect the logistic nature of the discovery process and the associated constraint on temporal availability of oil. Extraction paths and world oil price path are both derived endogenously from OPEC's intertemporally optimal cartel behaviour. Thereby OPEC is faced with both the price-dependent production of the non-OPEC competitive fringe and the price-dependent world oil demand. World oil demand is modelled with a constant price elasticity function and refers to a scenario from ACROPOLIS-POLES. LOPEX results indicate a significant higher oil price from around 2020 onwards compared to the reference scenario, and a stagnating market share of maximal 50% to be optimal for OPEC

  6. A statistical model for porous structure of rocks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JU Yang; YANG YongMing; SONG ZhenDuo; XU WenJing

    2008-01-01

    The geometric features and the distribution properties of pores in rocks were In-vestigated by means of CT scanning tests of sandstones. The centroidal coordl-nares of pores, the statistic characterristics of pore distance, quantity, size and their probability density functions were formulated in this paper. The Monte Carlo method and the random number generating algorithm were employed to generate two series of random numbers with the desired statistic characteristics and prob-ability density functions upon which the random distribution of pore position, dis-tance and quantity were determined. A three-dimensional porous structural model of sandstone was constructed based on the FLAC3D program and the information of the pore position and distribution that the series of random numbers defined. On the basis of modelling, the Brazil split tests of rock discs were carried out to ex-amine the stress distribution, the pattern of element failure and the inoaculation of failed elements. The simulation indicated that the proposed model was consistent with the realistic porous structure of rock in terms of their statistic properties of pores and geometric similarity. The built-up model disclosed the influence of pores on the stress distribution, failure mode of material elements and the inosculation of failed elements.

  7. A statistical model for porous structure of rocks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    The geometric features and the distribution properties of pores in rocks were in- vestigated by means of CT scanning tests of sandstones. The centroidal coordi- nates of pores, the statistic characterristics of pore distance, quantity, size and their probability density functions were formulated in this paper. The Monte Carlo method and the random number generating algorithm were employed to generate two series of random numbers with the desired statistic characteristics and prob- ability density functions upon which the random distribution of pore position, dis- tance and quantity were determined. A three-dimensional porous structural model of sandstone was constructed based on the FLAC3D program and the information of the pore position and distribution that the series of random numbers defined. On the basis of modelling, the Brazil split tests of rock discs were carried out to ex- amine the stress distribution, the pattern of element failure and the inosculation of failed elements. The simulation indicated that the proposed model was consistent with the realistic porous structure of rock in terms of their statistic properties of pores and geometric similarity. The built-up model disclosed the influence of pores on the stress distribution, failure mode of material elements and the inosculation of failed elements.

  8. The structure of memory in infants and toddlers: an SEM study with full-terms and preterms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Susan A; Feldman, Judith F; Jankowski, Jeffery J; Van Rossem, Ronan

    2011-01-01

    There is considerable dispute about the nature of infant memory. Using SEM models, we examined whether popular characterizations of the structure of adult memory, including the two-process theory of recognition, are applicable in the infant and toddler years. The participants were a cohort of preterms and full-terms assessed longitudinally--at 1, 2, and 3 years--on a battery containing tasks of immediate and delayed recognition, recall, and memory span (a measure of short-term capacity). Results were in accord with adult models which assume that short- and long-term memory are distinct, and that two processes--familiarity and recollection--underlie recognition memory, while one alone--recollection--supports recall. The finding that prematurity, which entails risk of hippocampal compromise, affected recollection, but not familiarity, accords well with adult findings that hippocampal damage selectively affects recollection. These findings reveal striking similarity between the structure and theoretical underpinnings of infant and adult memory. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  9. Structural equation models from paths to networks

    CERN Document Server

    Westland, J Christopher

    2015-01-01

    This compact reference surveys the full range of available structural equation modeling (SEM) methodologies.  It reviews applications in a broad range of disciplines, particularly in the social sciences where many key concepts are not directly observable.  This is the first book to present SEM’s development in its proper historical context–essential to understanding the application, strengths and weaknesses of each particular method.  This book also surveys the emerging path and network approaches that complement and enhance SEM, and that will grow in importance in the near future.  SEM’s ability to accommodate unobservable theory constructs through latent variables is of significant importance to social scientists.  Latent variable theory and application are comprehensively explained, and methods are presented for extending their power, including guidelines for data preparation, sample size calculation, and the special treatment of Likert scale data.  Tables of software, methodologies and fit st...

  10. Structured analysis and modeling of complex systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strome, David R.; Dalrymple, Mathieu A.

    1992-01-01

    The Aircrew Evaluation Sustained Operations Performance (AESOP) facility at Brooks AFB, Texas, combines the realism of an operational environment with the control of a research laboratory. In recent studies we collected extensive data from the Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) Weapons Directors subjected to high and low workload Defensive Counter Air Scenarios. A critical and complex task in this environment involves committing a friendly fighter against a hostile fighter. Structured Analysis and Design techniques and computer modeling systems were applied to this task as tools for analyzing subject performance and workload. This technology is being transferred to the Man-Systems Division of NASA Johnson Space Center for application to complex mission related tasks, such as manipulating the Shuttle grappler arm.

  11. Modeling of Zakat in the capital structure theory | Sanusi | Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Islamic financial instruments are subject to taxes and zakat for Muslim shareholders and debt holders. Therefore, it is important to investigate the implementation of corporate taxes and corporate zakat in capital structure compositions. In order to model corporate zakat in terms of conventional capital structure theories, this ...

  12. Virtuous organization: A structural equation modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Majid Zamahani

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available For years, the idea of virtue was unfavorable among researchers and virtues were traditionally considered as culture-specific, relativistic and they were supposed to be associated with social conservatism, religious or moral dogmatism, and scientific irrelevance. Virtue and virtuousness have been recently considered seriously among organizational researchers. The proposed study of this paper examines the relationships between leadership, organizational culture, human resource, structure and processes, care for community and virtuous organization. Structural equation modeling is employed to investigate the effects of each variable on other components. The data used in this study consists of questionnaire responses from employees in Payam e Noor University in Yazd province. A total of 250 questionnaires were sent out and a total of 211 valid responses were received. Our results have revealed that all the five variables have positive and significant impacts on virtuous organization. Among the five variables, organizational culture has the most direct impact (0.80 and human resource has the most total impact (0.844 on virtuous organization.

  13. Global plastic models for computerized structural analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roche, R.; Hoffmann, A.

    1977-01-01

    Two different global models are used in the CEASEMT system for structural analysis, one for the shells analysis and the other for piping analysis (in plastic or creep field). In shell analysis the generalized stresses choosed are the membrane forces Nsub(ij) and bending (including torsion) moments Msub(ij). There is only one yield condition for a normal (to the middle surface) and no integration along the thickness is required. In piping analysis, the choice of generalized stresses is: bending moments, torsional moments, Hoop stress and tension stress. There is only a set of stresses for a cross section and non integration over the cross section area is needed. Connected strains are axis curvature, torsion, uniform strains. The definition of the yield surface is the most important item. A practical way is to use a diagonal quadratic fonction of the stress components. But the coefficients are depending of the shape of the pipe element, especially for curved segments. Indications will be given on the yield fonctions used. Some examples of applications in structural analysis are added to the text [fr

  14. Central Bank Communication Affects the Term-Structure of Interest Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Chague

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We empirically analyze how the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB communication affects the term structure of future interest rates. Using principal components analysis, we construct a measure of the Monetary Policy Committee Minutes content that reflects policy makers optimism about the economic conditions. We call this measure the Optimism Factor (OF. When policy makers are more optimistic, reflected by increments in the OF, markets expectations respond and long-term future interest rates drop. Furthermore, when policy makers are pessimistic, reflected by a decrease in the OF, volatility on future interest rates increases. Our result indicates that policy maker communication has an effective impact on market expectations.

  15. 3D-DART: a DNA structure modelling server

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dijk, M.; Bonvin, A.M.J.J.

    2009-01-01

    There is a growing interest in structural studies of DNA by both experimental and computational approaches. Often, 3D-structural models of DNA are required, for instance, to serve as templates for homology modeling, as starting structures for macro-molecular docking or as scaffold for NMR structure

  16. A Spiking Working Memory Model Based on Hebbian Short-Term Potentiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiebig, Florian

    2017-01-01

    A dominant theory of working memory (WM), referred to as the persistent activity hypothesis, holds that recurrently connected neural networks, presumably located in the prefrontal cortex, encode and maintain WM memory items through sustained elevated activity. Reexamination of experimental data has shown that prefrontal cortex activity in single units during delay periods is much more variable than predicted by such a theory and associated computational models. Alternative models of WM maintenance based on synaptic plasticity, such as short-term nonassociative (non-Hebbian) synaptic facilitation, have been suggested but cannot account for encoding of novel associations. Here we test the hypothesis that a recently identified fast-expressing form of Hebbian synaptic plasticity (associative short-term potentiation) is a possible mechanism for WM encoding and maintenance. Our simulations using a spiking neural network model of cortex reproduce a range of cognitive memory effects in the classical multi-item WM task of encoding and immediate free recall of word lists. Memory reactivation in the model occurs in discrete oscillatory bursts rather than as sustained activity. We relate dynamic network activity as well as key synaptic characteristics to electrophysiological measurements. Our findings support the hypothesis that fast Hebbian short-term potentiation is a key WM mechanism. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Working memory (WM) is a key component of cognition. Hypotheses about the neural mechanism behind WM are currently under revision. Reflecting recent findings of fast Hebbian synaptic plasticity in cortex, we test whether a cortical spiking neural network model with such a mechanism can learn a multi-item WM task (word list learning). We show that our model can reproduce human cognitive phenomena and achieve comparable memory performance in both free and cued recall while being simultaneously compatible with experimental data on structure, connectivity, and

  17. A Spiking Working Memory Model Based on Hebbian Short-Term Potentiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiebig, Florian; Lansner, Anders

    2017-01-04

    A dominant theory of working memory (WM), referred to as the persistent activity hypothesis, holds that recurrently connected neural networks, presumably located in the prefrontal cortex, encode and maintain WM memory items through sustained elevated activity. Reexamination of experimental data has shown that prefrontal cortex activity in single units during delay periods is much more variable than predicted by such a theory and associated computational models. Alternative models of WM maintenance based on synaptic plasticity, such as short-term nonassociative (non-Hebbian) synaptic facilitation, have been suggested but cannot account for encoding of novel associations. Here we test the hypothesis that a recently identified fast-expressing form of Hebbian synaptic plasticity (associative short-term potentiation) is a possible mechanism for WM encoding and maintenance. Our simulations using a spiking neural network model of cortex reproduce a range of cognitive memory effects in the classical multi-item WM task of encoding and immediate free recall of word lists. Memory reactivation in the model occurs in discrete oscillatory bursts rather than as sustained activity. We relate dynamic network activity as well as key synaptic characteristics to electrophysiological measurements. Our findings support the hypothesis that fast Hebbian short-term potentiation is a key WM mechanism. Working memory (WM) is a key component of cognition. Hypotheses about the neural mechanism behind WM are currently under revision. Reflecting recent findings of fast Hebbian synaptic plasticity in cortex, we test whether a cortical spiking neural network model with such a mechanism can learn a multi-item WM task (word list learning). We show that our model can reproduce human cognitive phenomena and achieve comparable memory performance in both free and cued recall while being simultaneously compatible with experimental data on structure, connectivity, and neurophysiology of the underlying

  18. Contrasts in short- and long-term responses of Mediterranean reptile species to fire and habitat structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Xavier; Badiane, Arnaud; Matos, Cátia

    2016-01-01

    Changes in habitat structure constitute a major factor explaining responses of reptiles to fire. However, few studies have examined habitat factors that covary with fire-history variables to explain reptile responses. We hypothesise that more complex habitats should support richer reptile communities, and that species-specific relative abundance should be related to particular habitat features. From spring 2012-2014, twenty-five transects were surveyed in the Albera Region (north-east Iberia). The vegetation structure was measured and the extent of habitat types in a 1000-m buffer around each transect calculated. Reptile-community metrics (species richness and reptile abundance) were related to fire history, vegetation structure, and habitat types, using generalized additive models. These metrics correlated with habitat-structure variables but not with fire history. The number of species increased with more complex habitats but decreased with pine-plantation abundance in the 1000-m buffer. We found contrasting responses among reptiles in terms of time since fire and those responses differed according to vegetation variables and habitat types. An unplanned fire in August 2012 provided the opportunity to compare reptile abundance values between pre-fire and the short term (1-2 years) after the fire. Most species exhibited a negative short-term response to the 2012 fire except Tarentola mauritanica, a gecko that inhabits large rocks, as opposed to other ground-dwelling species. In the reptiles studied, contrasting responses to time since fire are consistent with the habitat-accommodation model of succession. These differences are linked to specific microhabitat preferences and suggest that functional traits can be used to predict species-specific responses to fire.

  19. Effect of long-term mechanical perturbation on intertidal soft-bottom meiofaunal community spatial structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boldina, Inna; Beninger, Peter G.; Le Coz, Maïwen

    2014-01-01

    Situated at the interface of the microbial and macrofaunal compartments, soft-bottom meiofauna accomplish important ecological functions. However, little is known of their spatial distribution in the benthic environment. To assess the effects of long-term mechanical disturbance on soft-bottom meiofaunal spatial distribution, we compared a site subjected to long-term clam digging to a nearby site untouched by such activities, in Bourgneuf Bay, on the Atlantic coast of France. Six patterned replicate samples were taken at 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21 and 24 cm lags, all sampling stations being separated by 5 m. A combined correlogram-variogram approach was used to enhance interpretation of the meiofaunal spatial distribution; in particular, the definition of autocorrelation strength and its statistical significance, as well as the detailed characteristics of the periodic spatial structure of nematode assemblages, and the determination of the maximum distance of their spatial autocorrelation. At both sites, nematodes and copepods clearly exhibited aggregated spatial structure at the meso scale; this structure was attenuated at the impacted site. The nematode spatial distribution showed periodicity at the non-impacted site, but not at the impacted site. This is the first explicit report of a periodic process in meiofaunal spatial distribution. No such cyclic spatial process was observed for the more motile copepods at either site. This first study to indicate the impacts of long-term anthropogenic mechanical perturbation on meiofaunal spatial structure opens the door to a new dimension of mudflat ecology. Since macrofaunal predator search behaviour is known to be strongly influenced by prey spatial structure, the alteration of this structure may have important consequences for ecosystem functioning.

  20. Development of a cost-effective and flexible vibration DAQ system for long-term continuous structural health monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Theanh; Chan, Tommy H. T.; Thambiratnam, David P.; King, Les

    2015-12-01

    In the structural health monitoring (SHM) field, long-term continuous vibration-based monitoring is becoming increasingly popular as this could keep track of the health status of structures during their service lives. However, implementing such a system is not always feasible due to on-going conflicts between budget constraints and the need of sophisticated systems to monitor real-world structures under their demanding in-service conditions. To address this problem, this paper presents a comprehensive development of a cost-effective and flexible vibration DAQ system for long-term continuous SHM of a newly constructed institutional complex with a special focus on the main building. First, selections of sensor type and sensor positions are scrutinized to overcome adversities such as low-frequency and low-level vibration measurements. In order to economically tackle the sparse measurement problem, a cost-optimized Ethernet-based peripheral DAQ model is first adopted to form the system skeleton. A combination of a high-resolution timing coordination method based on the TCP/IP command communication medium and a periodic system resynchronization strategy is then proposed to synchronize data from multiple distributed DAQ units. The results of both experimental evaluations and experimental-numerical verifications show that the proposed DAQ system in general and the data synchronization solution in particular work well and they can provide a promising cost-effective and flexible alternative for use in real-world SHM projects. Finally, the paper demonstrates simple but effective ways to make use of the developed monitoring system for long-term continuous structural health evaluation as well as to use the instrumented building herein as a multi-purpose benchmark structure for studying not only practical SHM problems but also synchronization related issues.

  1. Structural Performance Evaluation of Tsing MA Bridge Deck Using Long-Term Monitoring Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Y. Q.; Xia, H. W.; Ko, J. M.

    The Tsing Ma Bridge in Hong Kong is suspension bridge with a main span of 1377 m carrying both highway and railway traffic. After completing its construction in 1997, the bridge was instrumented by the Hong Kong SAR Government Highways Department with a long-term structural health monitoring system comprising about 300 sensors permanently installed on the bridge. As part of this monitoring system, a total of 110 strain gauges have been installed to measure strain at the deck cross-sections and bearings. In this study, a method for real-time structural performance evaluation of the stiffening deck system making use of long-term strain measurement data is proposed and verified using the strain monitoring data from a typical deck cross-section of the Tsing Ma Bridge.

  2. A long term model of circulation. [human body

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, R. J.

    1974-01-01

    A quantitative approach to modeling human physiological function, with a view toward ultimate application to long duration space flight experiments, was undertaken. Data was obtained on the effect of weightlessness on certain aspects of human physiological function during 1-3 month periods. Modifications in the Guyton model are reviewed. Design considerations for bilateral interface models are discussed. Construction of a functioning whole body model was studied, as well as the testing of the model versus available data.

  3. Characteristic function analysis of lattice CPN-1 models with θ-term in two - dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, A.S.

    2004-01-01

    The present work is devoted to study the phase structure of CP N-1 N m odel with θ-term in two dimensions and to calculate the topological charge distribution P(Q) by using the characteristic function. P(Q) shows a Gaussian behavior. Information concerning the phase structure is obtained through the analysis of the behavior of the characteristic function for various coupling constants β. For N = 2, 4 it is shown that the model has a deconfining phase transition in θ. The critical value of θ approaches zero as β tends to infinity. This suggests that θ goes to zero in the continuum limit. These results may resolve the strong CP problem

  4. Cosmological model with the negative Λ term and strings of an infinite length

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kardashev, N.S.

    1986-01-01

    It is shown that the solution of the Friedmann equation with negative vacuum density and with an account for the density of strings going beyond the horizon (infinite strings) is the same for spaces of negative, zero and positive curvature. This is connected with the fact that in the equation the term, accounting for the space curvature, and the term describing the strings have the same structure. The model presented satisfies the value of the deceleration parameter q 0 0.5, of the expansion parameter H 0 =50 km/s x Mpc, and yields the age of the Universe from the beginning of the expansion of 16 billion years. The model also predicts a stop in the expansion and the subsequent contraction of the Universe. For a flat space and for the present density of the nonrelativistic matter 5x10 -31 g/cm 3 , the model yields the vacuum density - 2x10 -30 g/cm 3 , the string density 6x10 -30 g/cm 3 ; the stop will occur 43 billion years after the beginning of the expansion. Other features of the model as well as possible observational tests are discussed

  5. Insights on Forest Structure and Composition from Long-Term Research in the Luquillo Mountains

    OpenAIRE

    Tamara Heartsill Scalley

    2017-01-01

    The science of ecology fundamentally aims to understand species and their relation to the environment. At sites where hurricane disturbance is part of the environmental context, permanent forest plots are critical to understand ecological vegetation dynamics through time. An overview of forest structure and species composition from two of the longest continuously measured tropical forest plots is presented. Long-term measurements, 72 years at the leeward site, and 25 years at windward site, o...

  6. Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting Model Based on Artificial Neural Network Using Statistical Feature Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongshan Zhao

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Short-term solar irradiance forecasting (STSIF is of great significance for the optimal operation and power predication of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV plants. However, STSIF is very complex to handle due to the random and nonlinear characteristics of solar irradiance under changeable weather conditions. Artificial Neural Network (ANN is suitable for STSIF modeling and many research works on this topic are presented, but the conciseness and robustness of the existing models still need to be improved. After discussing the relation between weather variations and irradiance, the characteristics of the statistical feature parameters of irradiance under different weather conditions are figured out. A novel ANN model using statistical feature parameters (ANN-SFP for STSIF is proposed in this paper. The input vector is reconstructed with several statistical feature parameters of irradiance and ambient temperature. Thus sufficient information can be effectively extracted from relatively few inputs and the model complexity is reduced. The model structure is determined by cross-validation (CV, and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm (LMA is used for the network training. Simulations are carried out to validate and compare the proposed model with the conventional ANN model using historical data series (ANN-HDS, and the results indicated that the forecast accuracy is obviously improved under variable weather conditions.

  7. Modelling Long-Term Evolution of Cementitious Materials Used in Waste Disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacques, D.; Perko, J.; Seetharam, S.; Govaerts, J.; Mallants, D.

    2013-01-01

    This report summarizes the latest developments at SCK-CEN in modelling long-term evolution of cementitious materials used as engineered barriers in waste disposal. In a first section chemical degradation of concrete during leaching with rain and soil water types is discussed. The geochemical evolution of concrete thus obtained forms the basis for all further modelling. Next we show how the leaching model is coupled with a reactive transport module to determine leaching of cement minerals under diffusive or advective boundary conditions. The module also contains a simplified microstructural model from which hydraulic and transport properties of concrete may be calculated dynamically. This coupled model is simplified, i.e. abstracted prior to being applied to large-scale concrete structures typical of a near-surface repository. Both the original and simplified models are then used to calculate the evolution of hydraulic, transport, and chemical properties of concrete. Characteristic degradation states of concrete are further linked to distribution ratios that describe sorption onto hardened cement via a linear and reversible sorption process. As concrete degrades and pH drops the distribution ratios are continuously updated. We have thus integrated all major chemical and physical concrete degradation processes into one simulator for a particular scale of interest. Two simulators are used: one that can operate at relatively small spatial scales using all process details and another one which simulates concrete degradation at the scale of the repository but with a simplified cement model representation. (author)

  8. Mediators of a long-term movement abnormality in a Drosophila melanogaster model of classic galactosemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily L. Ryan

    2012-11-01

    Despite neonatal diagnosis and life-long dietary restriction of galactose, many patients with classic galactosemia grow to experience significant long-term complications. Among the more common are speech, cognitive, behavioral, ovarian and neurological/movement difficulties. Despite decades of research, the pathophysiology of these long-term complications remains obscure, hindering prognosis and attempts at improved intervention. As a first step to overcome this roadblock we have begun to explore long-term outcomes in our previously reported GALT-null Drosophila melanogaster model of classic galactosemia. Here we describe the first of these studies. Using a countercurrent device, a simple climbing assay, and a startle response test to characterize and quantify an apparent movement abnormality, we explored the impact of cryptic GALT expression on phenotype, tested the role of sublethal galactose exposure and galactose-1-phosphate (gal-1P accumulation, tested the impact of age, and searched for potential anatomical defects in brain and muscle. We found that about 2.5% residual GALT activity was sufficient to reduce outcome severity. Surprisingly, sublethal galactose exposure and gal-1P accumulation during development showed no effect on the adult phenotype. Finally, despite the apparent neurological or neuromuscular nature of the complication we found no clear morphological differences between mutants and controls in brain or muscle, suggesting that the defect is subtle and/or is physiologic rather than structural. Combined, our results confirm that, like human patients, GALT-null Drosophila experience significant long-term complications that occur independently of galactose exposure, and serve as a proof of principle demonstrating utility of the GALT-null Drosophila model as a tool for exploring genetic and environmental modifiers of long-term outcome in GALT deficiency.

  9. Long term subsidence movements and behavior of subsidence-damaged structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahar, J.W.; Marino, G.G.

    1999-01-01

    Surface ground movement related to sag mine subsidence has been monitored above Illinois abandoned room and pillar coal workings for periods of more than 15 years. The long term movement related to a specific mine subsidence is typically small relative to the initial displacements but have caused crack and tilt damage in both repaired and unrepaired structures. Seasonal variations in ground surface elevations are superimposed on the downward movement related to mine subsidence. Thus it is necessary to measure long term subsidence movement at about the same time each year in order to minimize environmental factors. This paper presents long term monitoring data from five subsidence sags in central and southern Illinois. The abandoned coal mine workings are located at depths of 160 to 460 ft below the ground surface. measured residual mine subsidence ranges between 1.4 and 3.6 in. 4.4 to 15 years after mine failure. The magnitude of downward displacement is greater than settlement design values (1 in.) and are at rates (0.0004 to 0.0056 ft/month) that cause damage to structures. Most of the damage in unrepaired structures occurs along existing cracks and separations. In all five cases, the ground movements are continuing at residual rates. Sag subsidence movement in Illinois takes place for a minimum of five years after the damage is manifested at the ground surface. A classification of say development is provided based on the displacement-time data

  10. Continuation-like semantics for modeling structural process anomalies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grewe Niels

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Biomedical ontologies usually encode knowledge that applies always or at least most of the time, that is in normal circumstances. But for some applications like phenotype ontologies it is becoming increasingly important to represent information about aberrations from a norm. These aberrations may be modifications of physiological structures, but also modifications of biological processes. Methods To facilitate precise definitions of process-related phenotypes, such as delayed eruption of the primary teeth or disrupted ocular pursuit movements, I introduce a modeling approach that draws inspiration from the use of continuations in the analysis of programming languages and apply a similar idea to ontological modeling. This approach characterises processes by describing their outcome up to a certain point and the way they will continue in the canonical case. Definitions of process types are then given in terms of their continuations and anomalous phenotypes are defined by their differences to the canonical definitions. Results The resulting model is capable of accurately representing structural process anomalies. It allows distinguishing between different anomaly kinds (delays, interruptions, gives identity criteria for interrupted processes, and explains why normal and anomalous process instances can be subsumed under a common type, thus establishing the connection between canonical and anomalous process-related phenotypes. Conclusion This paper shows how to to give semantically rich definitions of process-related phenotypes. These allow to expand the application areas of phenotype ontologies beyond literature annotation and establishment of genotype-phenotype associations to the detection of anomalies in suitably encoded datasets.

  11. Half-trek criterion for generic identifiability of linear structural equation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Foygel, R.; Draisma, J.; Drton, M.

    2012-01-01

    A linear structural equation model relates random variables of interest and corresponding Gaussian noise terms via a linear equation system. Each such model can be represented by a mixed graph in which directed edges encode the linear equations, and bidirected edges indicate possible correlations

  12. Half-trek criterion for generic identifiability of linear structural equation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Foygel, R.; Draisma, J.; Drton, M.

    2011-01-01

    A linear structural equation model relates random variables of interest and corresponding Gaussian noise terms via a linear equation system. Each such model can be represented by a mixed graph in which directed edges encode the linear equations, and bidirected edges indicate possible correlations

  13. Predictive model for early math skills based on structural equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aragón, Estíbaliz; Navarro, José I; Aguilar, Manuel; Cerda, Gamal; García-Sedeño, Manuel

    2016-12-01

    Early math skills are determined by higher cognitive processes that are particularly important for acquiring and developing skills during a child's early education. Such processes could be a critical target for identifying students at risk for math learning difficulties. Few studies have considered the use of a structural equation method to rationalize these relations. Participating in this study were 207 preschool students ages 59 to 72 months, 108 boys and 99 girls. Performance with respect to early math skills, early literacy, general intelligence, working memory, and short-term memory was assessed. A structural equation model explaining 64.3% of the variance in early math skills was applied. Early literacy exhibited the highest statistical significance (β = 0.443, p < 0.05), followed by intelligence (β = 0.286, p < 0.05), working memory (β = 0.220, p < 0.05), and short-term memory (β = 0.213, p < 0.05). Correlations between the independent variables were also significant (p < 0.05). According to the results, cognitive variables should be included in remedial intervention programs. © 2016 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Fitting ARMA Time Series by Structural Equation Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Buuren, Stef

    1997-01-01

    This paper outlines how the stationary ARMA (p,q) model (G. Box and G. Jenkins, 1976) can be specified as a structural equation model. Maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters in the ARMA model can be obtained by software for fitting structural equation models. The method is applied to three problem types. (SLD)

  15. Semi-structured data extraction and modelling: the WIA Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Mosca

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Over the last decades, the amount of data of all kinds available electronically has increased dramatically. Data are accessible through a range of interfaces including Web browsers, database query languages, application-specific interfaces, built on top of a number of different data exchange formats. All these data span from un-structured to highly structured data. Very often, some of them have structure even if the structure is implicit, and not as rigid or regular as that found in standard database systems. Spreadsheet documents are prototypical in this respect. Spreadsheets are the lightweight technology able to supply companies with easy to build business management and business intelligence applications, and business people largely adopt spreadsheets as smart vehicles for data files generation and sharing. Actually, the more spreadsheets grow in complexity (e.g., their use in product development plans and quoting, the more their arrangement, maintenance, and analysis appear as a knowledge-driven activity. The algorithmic approach to the problem of automatic data structure extraction from spreadsheet documents (i.e., grid-structured and free topological-related data emerges from the WIA project: Worksheets Intelligent Analyser. The WIA-algorithm shows how to provide a description of spreadsheet contents in terms of higher level of abstractions or conceptualisations. In particular, the WIA-algorithm target is about the extraction of i the calculus work-flow implemented in the spreadsheets formulas and ii the logical role played by the data which take part into the calculus. The aim of the resulting conceptualisations is to provide spreadsheets with abstract representations useful for further model refinements and optimizations through evolutionary algorithms computations.

  16. Modelling structural systems for transient response analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melosh, R.J.

    1975-01-01

    This paper introduces and reports success of a direct means of determining the time periods in which a structural system behaves as a linear system. Numerical results are based on post fracture transient analyses of simplified nuclear piping systems. Knowledge of the linear response ranges will lead to improved analysis-test correlation and more efficient analyses. It permits direct use of data from physical tests in analysis and simplication of the analytical model and interpretation of its behavior. The paper presents a procedure for deducing linearity based on transient responses. Given the forcing functions and responses of discrete points of the system at various times, the process produces evidence of linearity and quantifies an adequate set of equations of motion. Results of use of the process with linear and nonlinear analyses of piping systems with damping illustrate its success. Results cover the application to data from mathematical system responses. The process is successfull with mathematical models. In loading ranges in which all modes are excited, eight digit accuracy of predictions are obtained from the equations of motion deduced. Small changes (less than 0.01%) in the norm of the transfer matrices are produced by manipulation errors for linear systems yielding evidence that nonlinearity is easily distinguished. Significant changes (greater than five %) are coincident with relatively large norms of the equilibrium correction vector in nonlinear analyses. The paper shows that deducing linearity and, when admissible, quantifying linear equations of motion from transient response data for piping systems can be achieved with accuracy comparable to that of response data

  17. Designing a Knowledge Management Excellence Model Based on Interpretive Structural Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirza Hassan Hosseini

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Despite the development of appropriate academic and experiential background knowledge management and its manifestation as a competitive advantage, many organizations have failed in its effective utilization. Among the reasons for this failure are some deficiencies in terms of methodology in inappropriate recognition and translation of KM dimensions and lack of systematic approach in establishment of causal relationships among KM factors. This article attempts to design an Organizational Knowledge Management Excellence Model. To design an organizational knowledge management excellence model based on library researches, interviews with experts and interpretive-structural modeling (ISM was used in order to identify and determine the relationships between the factors of km excellence. Accordingly, 9 key criteria of KM Excellence as well as 29 sub-criteria were extracted and the relationships and sequence of factors were defined and developed in 5 levels for designing an organizational KM excellence Model. Finally, the concepts were applied in Defense Organizations to illustrate the proposed methodology.

  18. Homogenization models for 2-D grid structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, H. T.; Cioranescu, D.; Rebnord, D. A.

    1992-01-01

    In the past several years, we have pursued efforts related to the development of accurate models for the dynamics of flexible structures made of composite materials. Rather than viewing periodicity and sparseness as obstacles to be overcome, we exploit them to our advantage. We consider a variational problem on a domain that has large, periodically distributed holes. Using homogenization techniques we show that the solution to this problem is in some topology 'close' to the solution of a similar problem that holds on a much simpler domain. We study the behavior of the solution of the variational problem as the holes increase in number, but decrease in size in such a way that the total amount of material remains constant. The result is an equation that is in general more complex, but with a domain that is simply connected rather than perforated. We study the limit of the solution as the amount of material goes to zero. This second limit will, in most cases, retrieve much of the simplicity that was lost in the first limit without sacrificing the simplicity of the domain. Finally, we show that these results can be applied to the case of a vibrating Love-Kirchhoff plate with Kelvin-Voigt damping. We rely heavily on earlier results of (Du), (CS) for the static, undamped Love-Kirchhoff equation. Our efforts here result in a modification of those results to include both time dependence and Kelvin-Voigt damping.

  19. Uncertainty Assessment in Long Term Urban Drainage Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren

    the probability of system failures (defined as either flooding or surcharge of manholes or combined sewer overflow); (2) an application of the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology in which an event based stochastic calibration is performed; and (3) long term Monte Carlo simulations...

  20. Modelling the long-term durability of concrete barriers for radioactive waste disposals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerard, B.; Didry, O.; Marchand, J.; Gerard, B.; Breysse, D.; Hornain, H.

    1996-01-01

    In the past decades, cement-based materials have been increasingly used for the construction of radioactive-waste barriers. The design of durable structures for this specific application requires a precise knowledge of the evolution of the engineering properties of the materials over a 1000-year period. Given the intricate nature of the physical mechanisms involved, a reliable prediction of the long term behavior of the concrete barriers can only be made through modelling and numerical developments. After a brief literature survey in which the main aspects of the problem are outlined, the features of a new modelling approach are presented. The main originality of this approach resides in the fact that the model considers the various chemical and mechanical solicitations and their eventual couplings. The physical and thermodynamical bases behind the development of the model are detailed. A section of the paper is specifically devoted to the experimental techniques (accelerated leaching test, assessment of the permeability and mechanical behavior of concretes under tensile loading, characterization of the concrete microstructure and microcracking by image-analysis) designed to validate the model. Results of selected numerical simulations are presented in the last section of the paper. The main difficulties associated with the implantation of such a model in a finite-element code are discussed. (author)

  1. Protein structure modeling and refinement by global optimization in CASP12.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Seung Hwan; Joung, InSuk; Flores-Canales, Jose C; Manavalan, Balachandran; Cheng, Qianyi; Heo, Seungryong; Kim, Jong Yun; Lee, Sun Young; Nam, Mikyung; Joo, Keehyoung; Lee, In-Ho; Lee, Sung Jong; Lee, Jooyoung

    2018-03-01

    For protein structure modeling in the CASP12 experiment, we have developed a new protocol based on our previous CASP11 approach. The global optimization method of conformational space annealing (CSA) was applied to 3 stages of modeling: multiple sequence-structure alignment, three-dimensional (3D) chain building, and side-chain re-modeling. For better template selection and model selection, we updated our model quality assessment (QA) method with the newly developed SVMQA (support vector machine for quality assessment). For 3D chain building, we updated our energy function by including restraints generated from predicted residue-residue contacts. New energy terms for the predicted secondary structure and predicted solvent accessible surface area were also introduced. For difficult targets, we proposed a new method, LEEab, where the template term played a less significant role than it did in LEE, complemented by increased contributions from other terms such as the predicted contact term. For TBM (template-based modeling) targets, LEE performed better than LEEab, but for FM targets, LEEab was better. For model refinement, we modified our CASP11 molecular dynamics (MD) based protocol by using explicit solvents and tuning down restraint weights. Refinement results from MD simulations that used a new augmented statistical energy term in the force field were quite promising. Finally, when using inaccurate information (such as the predicted contacts), it was important to use the Lorentzian function for which the maximal penalty arising from wrong information is always bounded. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. A Multi-Stage Maturity Model for Long-Term IT Outsourcing Relationship Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luong, Ming; Stevens, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    The Multi-Stage Maturity Model for Long-Term IT Outsourcing Relationship Success, a theoretical stages-of-growth model, explains long-term success in IT outsourcing relationships. Research showed the IT outsourcing relationship life cycle consists of four distinct, sequential stages: contract, transition, support, and partnership. The model was…

  3. Structural Brain Imaging of Long-Term Anabolic-Androgenic Steroid Users and Nonusing Weightlifters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjørnebekk, Astrid; Walhovd, Kristine B; Jørstad, Marie L; Due-Tønnessen, Paulina; Hullstein, Ingunn R; Fjell, Anders M

    2017-08-15

    Prolonged high-dose anabolic-androgenic steroid (AAS) use has been associated with psychiatric symptoms and cognitive deficits, yet we have almost no knowledge of the long-term consequences of AAS use on the brain. The purpose of this study is to investigate the association between long-term AAS exposure and brain morphometry, including subcortical neuroanatomical volumes and regional cortical thickness. Male AAS users and weightlifters with no experience with AASs or any other equivalent doping substances underwent structural magnetic resonance imaging scans of the brain. The current paper is based upon high-resolution structural T1-weighted images from 82 current or past AAS users exceeding 1 year of cumulative AAS use and 68 non-AAS-using weightlifters. Images were processed with the FreeSurfer software to compare neuroanatomical volumes and cerebral cortical thickness between the groups. Compared to non-AAS-using weightlifters, the AAS group had thinner cortex in widespread regions and significantly smaller neuroanatomical volumes, including total gray matter, cerebral cortex, and putamen. Both volumetric and thickness effects remained relatively stable across different AAS subsamples comprising various degrees of exposure to AASs and also when excluding participants with previous and current non-AAS drug abuse. The effects could not be explained by differences in verbal IQ, intracranial volume, anxiety/depression, or attention or behavioral problems. This large-scale systematic investigation of AAS use on brain structure shows negative correlations between AAS use and brain volume and cortical thickness. Although the findings are correlational, they may serve to raise concern about the long-term consequences of AAS use on structural features of the brain. Copyright © 2016 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Long-term Morphological Modeling at Coastal Inlets

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-15

    that of Humboldt Bay, CA. The model reproduces reasonably well several geomorphic and hydrodynamic features of the inlet at Humboldt Bay. The...geometries, and model setup (e.g., sediment transport formulas) to investigate the controlling geomorphic parameters and the applicability of the CMS...2015 9 The model reproduces the general geomorphic features of Humboldt Bay. The ebb shoal volume is in the lower range of the estimated amount

  5. Modeling Long-Term Fluvial Incision : Shall we Care for the Details of Short-Term Fluvial Dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lague, D.; Davy, P.

    2008-12-01

    Fluvial incision laws used in numerical models of coupled climate, erosion and tectonics systems are mainly based on the family of stream power laws for which the rate of local erosion E is a power function of the topographic slope S and the local mean discharge Q : E = K Qm Sn. The exponents m and n are generally taken as (0.35, 0.7) or (0.5, 1), and K is chosen such that the predicted topographic elevation given the prevailing rates of precipitation and tectonics stay within realistic values. The resulting topographies are reasonably realistic, and the coupled system dynamics behaves somehow as expected : more precipitation induces increased erosion and localization of the deformation. Yet, if we now focus on smaller scale fluvial dynamics (the reach scale), recent advances have suggested that discharge variability, channel width dynamics or sediment flux effects may play a significant role in controlling incision rates. These are not factored in the simple stream power law model. In this work, we study how these short- term details propagate into long-term incision dynamics within the framework of surface/tectonics coupled numerical models. To upscale the short term dynamics to geological timescales, we use a numerical model of a trapezoidal river in which vertical and lateral incision processes are computed from fluid shear stress at a daily timescale, sediment transport and protection effects are factored in, as well as a variable discharge. We show that the stream power law model might still be a valid model but that as soon as realistic effects are included such as a threshold for sediment transport, variable discharge and dynamic width the resulting exponents m and n can be as high as 2 and 4. This high non-linearity has a profound consequence on the sensitivity of fluvial relief to incision rate. We also show that additional complexity does not systematically translates into more non-linear behaviour. For instance, considering only a dynamical width

  6. Loss terms in free-piston Stirling engine models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Lloyd B.

    1992-01-01

    Various models for free piston Stirling engines are reviewed. Initial models were developed primarily for design purposes and to predict operating parameters, especially efficiency. More recently, however, such models have been used to predict engine stability. Free piston Stirling engines have no kinematic constraints and stability may not only be sensitive to the load, but also to various nonlinear loss and spring constraints. The present understanding is reviewed of various loss mechanisms for free piston Stirling engines and how they have been incorporated into engine models is discussed.

  7. Visualization of RNA structure models within the Integrative Genomics Viewer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busan, Steven; Weeks, Kevin M

    2017-07-01

    Analyses of the interrelationships between RNA structure and function are increasingly important components of genomic studies. The SHAPE-MaP strategy enables accurate RNA structure probing and realistic structure modeling of kilobase-length noncoding RNAs and mRNAs. Existing tools for visualizing RNA structure models are not suitable for efficient analysis of long, structurally heterogeneous RNAs. In addition, structure models are often advantageously interpreted in the context of other experimental data and gene annotation information, for which few tools currently exist. We have developed a module within the widely used and well supported open-source Integrative Genomics Viewer (IGV) that allows visualization of SHAPE and other chemical probing data, including raw reactivities, data-driven structural entropies, and data-constrained base-pair secondary structure models, in context with linear genomic data tracks. We illustrate the usefulness of visualizing RNA structure in the IGV by exploring structure models for a large viral RNA genome, comparing bacterial mRNA structure in cells with its structure under cell- and protein-free conditions, and comparing a noncoding RNA structure modeled using SHAPE data with a base-pairing model inferred through sequence covariation analysis. © 2017 Busan and Weeks; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press for the RNA Society.

  8. Empirical Analysis of Farm Credit Risk under the Structure Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yan

    2009-01-01

    The study measures farm credit risk by using farm records collected by Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) during the period 1995-2004. The study addresses the following questions: (1) whether farm's financial position is fully described by the structure model, (2) what are the determinants of farm capital structure under the structure model, (3)…

  9. Vibration modeling of structural fuzzy with continuous boundary

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friis, Lars; Ohlrich, Mogens

    2008-01-01

    a multitude of different sprung masses each strongly resisting any motion of the main structure (master) at their base antiresonance. The “theory of structural fuzzy” is intended for modeling such high damping. In the present article the theory of fuzzy structures is briefly outlined and a method of modeling...

  10. Carbody structural lightweighting based on implicit parameterized model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xin; Ma, Fangwu; Wang, Dengfeng; Xie, Chen

    2014-05-01

    Most of recent research on carbody lightweighting has focused on substitute material and new processing technologies rather than structures. However, new materials and processing techniques inevitably lead to higher costs. Also, material substitution and processing lightweighting have to be realized through body structural profiles and locations. In the huge conventional workload of lightweight optimization, model modifications involve heavy manual work, and it always leads to a large number of iteration calculations. As a new technique in carbody lightweighting, the implicit parameterization is used to optimize the carbody structure to improve the materials utilization rate in this paper. The implicit parameterized structural modeling enables the use of automatic modification and rapid multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) in carbody structure, which is impossible in the traditional structure finite element method (FEM) without parameterization. The structural SFE parameterized model is built in accordance with the car structural FE model in concept development stage, and it is validated by some structural performance data. The validated SFE structural parameterized model can be used to generate rapidly and automatically FE model and evaluate different design variables group in the integrated MDO loop. The lightweighting result of body-in-white (BIW) after the optimization rounds reveals that the implicit parameterized model makes automatic MDO feasible and can significantly improve the computational efficiency of carbody structural lightweighting. This paper proposes the integrated method of implicit parameterized model and MDO, which has the obvious practical advantage and industrial significance in the carbody structural lightweighting design.

  11. Long-Term Calculations with Large Air Pollution Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ambelas Skjøth, C.; Bastrup-Birk, A.; Brandt, J.

    1999-01-01

    Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Large Scale Computations in Air Pollution Modelling, Sofia, Bulgaria, 6-10 July 1998......Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Large Scale Computations in Air Pollution Modelling, Sofia, Bulgaria, 6-10 July 1998...

  12. A fuzzy inference model for short-term load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mamlook, Rustum; Badran, Omar; Abdulhadi, Emad

    2009-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the short-term load forecasting (STLF) in power system operations. It provides load prediction for generation scheduling and unit commitment decisions, and therefore precise load forecasting plays an important role in reducing the generation cost and the spinning reserve capacity. Short-term electricity demand forecasting (i.e., the prediction of hourly loads (demand)) is one of the most important tools by which an electric utility/company plans, dispatches the loading of generating units in order to meet system demand. The accuracy of the dispatching system, which is derived from the accuracy of the forecasting algorithm used, will determine the economics of the operation of the power system. The inaccuracy or large error in the forecast simply means that load matching is not optimized and consequently the generation and transmission systems are not being operated in an efficient manner. In the present study, a proposed methodology has been introduced to decrease the forecasted error and the processing time by using fuzzy logic controller on an hourly base. Therefore, it predicts the effect of different conditional parameters (i.e., weather, time, historical data, and random disturbances) on load forecasting in terms of fuzzy sets during the generation process. These parameters are chosen with respect to their priority and importance. The forecasted values obtained by fuzzy method were compared with the conventionally forecasted ones. The results showed that the STLF of the fuzzy implementation have more accuracy and better outcomes

  13. Modelling road accidents: An approach using structural time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, the trend of road accidents in Malaysia for the years 2001 until 2012 was modelled using a structural time series approach. The structural time series model was identified using a stepwise method, and the residuals for each model were tested. The best-fitted model was chosen based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and prediction error variance. In order to check the quality of the model, a data validation procedure was performed by predicting the monthly number of road accidents for the year 2012. Results indicate that the best specification of the structural time series model to represent road accidents is the local level with a seasonal model.

  14. The string model with the extrinsic curvature term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itoi, C.; Kubota, Hiroshi

    1988-01-01

    The string model with the extrinsic curvature is studied which is a gauge invariant field theory with higher order derivatives. We present an equivalent action without any higher order derivatives which keeps the gauge invariance. We point out the difficulty caused by the second class constraints in Dirac's canonical method. Following a new method for dynamical systems with second class constraints, we construct a equivalent model which has no second class constraints but has a new gauge invariance. This gauge invariance guarantees the equivalence between the original model and new one. We show that the model can be quantized in this formalism. In a simple model, we show the nilpotence of the BRST charge under certain conditions, and discuss the unitarity of the theory. (author)

  15. Fast optimization of statistical potentials for structurally constrained phylogenetic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigue Nicolas

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Statistical approaches for protein design are relevant in the field of molecular evolutionary studies. In recent years, new, so-called structurally constrained (SC models of protein-coding sequence evolution have been proposed, which use statistical potentials to assess sequence-structure compatibility. In a previous work, we defined a statistical framework for optimizing knowledge-based potentials especially suited to SC models. Our method used the maximum likelihood principle and provided what we call the joint potentials. However, the method required numerical estimations by the use of computationally heavy Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. Results Here, we develop an alternative optimization procedure, based on a leave-one-out argument coupled to fast gradient descent algorithms. We assess that the leave-one-out potential yields very similar results to the joint approach developed previously, both in terms of the resulting potential parameters, and by Bayes factor evaluation in a phylogenetic context. On the other hand, the leave-one-out approach results in a considerable computational benefit (up to a 1,000 fold decrease in computational time for the optimization procedure. Conclusion Due to its computational speed, the optimization method we propose offers an attractive alternative for the design and empirical evaluation of alternative forms of potentials, using large data sets and high-dimensional parameterizations.

  16. Using Random Forests to Select Optimal Input Variables for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Wang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Achieving relatively high-accuracy short-term wind speed forecasting estimates is a precondition for the construction and grid-connected operation of wind power forecasting systems for wind farms. Currently, most research is focused on the structure of forecasting models and does not consider the selection of input variables, which can have significant impacts on forecasting performance. This paper presents an input variable selection method for wind speed forecasting models. The candidate input variables for various leading periods are selected and random forests (RF is employed to evaluate the importance of all variable as features. The feature subset with the best evaluation performance is selected as the optimal feature set. Then, kernel-based extreme learning machine is constructed to evaluate the performance of input variables selection based on RF. The results of the case study show that by removing the uncorrelated and redundant features, RF effectively extracts the most strongly correlated set of features from the candidate input variables. By finding the optimal feature combination to represent the original information, RF simplifies the structure of the wind speed forecasting model, shortens the training time required, and substantially improves the model’s accuracy and generalization ability, demonstrating that the input variables selected by RF are effective.

  17. Modelling Tradescantia fluminensis to assess long term survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex James

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a simple Poisson process model for the growth of Tradescantia fluminensis, an invasive plant species that inhibits the regeneration of native forest remnants in New Zealand. The model was parameterised with data derived from field experiments in New Zealand and then verified with independent data. The model gave good predictions which showed that its underlying assumptions are sound. However, this simple model had less predictive power for outputs based on variance suggesting that some assumptions were lacking. Therefore, we extended the model to include higher variability between plants thereby improving its predictions. This high variance model suggests that control measures that promote node death at the base of the plant or restrict the main stem growth rate will be more effective than those that reduce the number of branching events. The extended model forms a good basis for assessing the efficacy of various forms of control of this weed, including the recently-released leaf-feeding tradescantia leaf beetle (Neolema ogloblini.

  18. Model Checking Structured Infinite Markov Chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Remke, Anne Katharina Ingrid

    2008-01-01

    In the past probabilistic model checking hast mostly been restricted to finite state models. This thesis explores the possibilities of model checking with continuous stochastic logic (CSL) on infinite-state Markov chains. We present an in-depth treatment of model checking algorithms for two special

  19. Models test on dynamic structure-structure interaction of nuclear power plant buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitada, Y.; Hirotani, T.

    1999-01-01

    A reactor building of an NPP (nuclear power plant) is generally constructed closely adjacent to a turbine building and other buildings such as the auxiliary building, and in increasing numbers of NPPs, multiple plants are being planned and constructed closely on a single site. In these situations, adjacent buildings are considered to influence each other through the soil during earthquakes and to exhibit dynamic behaviour different from that of separate buildings, because those buildings in NPP are generally heavy and massive. The dynamic interaction between buildings during earthquake through the soil is termed here as 'dynamic cross interaction (DCI)'. In order to comprehend DCI appropriately, forced vibration tests and earthquake observation are needed using closely constructed building models. Standing on this background, Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC) had planned the project to investigate the DCI effect in 1993 after the preceding SSI (soil-structure interaction) investigation project, 'model tests on embedment effect of reactor building'. The project consists of field and laboratory tests. The field test is being carried out using three different building construction conditions, e.g. a single reactor building to be used for the comparison purposes as for a reference, two same reactor buildings used to evaluate pure DCI effects, and two different buildings, reactor and turbine building models to evaluate DCI effects under the actual plant conditions. Forced vibration tests and earthquake observations are planned in the field test. The laboratory test is planned to evaluate basic characteristics of the DCI effects using simple soil model made of silicon rubber and structure models made of aluminum. In this test, forced vibration tests and shaking table tests are planned. The project was started in April 1994 and will be completed in March 2002. This paper describes an outline and the summary of the current status of this project. (orig.)

  20. Bundling into the future - Structural conditions for business model design in new ICT services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henten, Anders; Godø, Helge

    of services in terms of structural conditions market-wise and in regulatory terms. As the two service categories are relatively new on the market, dominating business model designs have not yet settled and the strategic choices of companies are still open. Being on the market, the discussion on the business......Based on a case study of multi-play and mobile voice over IP (MVoIP) in primarily Denmark and Norway, the paper presents an analysis of the structural conditions for the design of business models regarding new information and communication services. Multi-play and MVoIP represent different kinds...

  1. Modelled long term trends of surface ozone over South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, M

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available focused on SA Highveld, 2006 ? Keeping all CAMx inputs ?standardized?, leaving only meteorology as a variable ? CSIR 2010 Slide 11 CAMx data flow CAMx Met model USGS surface data Emissions Initial & boundary Haze & albedo Photolysis rates...

  2. Computer modelling of radioactive source terms at a tokamak reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meide, A.

    1984-12-01

    The Monte Carlo code MCNP has been used to create a simple three-dimensional mathematical model representing 1/12 of a tokamak fusion reactor for studies of the exposure rate level from neutrons as well as gamma rays from the activated materials, and for later estimates of the consequences to the environment, public, and operating personnel. The model is based on the recommendations from the NET/INTOR workshops. (author)

  3. Solitons and bubbles in models with Chern-Simons term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masperi, L.

    1992-07-01

    It is shown that a gauge theory for complex scalar field with up to sextic self-interactions and a Chern-Simons term in 2 + 1 dimensions has solitons which may become bubbles of the stable broken-symmetry phase in a medium of the symmetric one producing the first-order phase transition. In the non-relativistic limit scale invariance prevents the determination of an optimal bubble size. Possible extensions to 3 + 1 dimensions of bubbles of string type are indicated. (author). 8 refs

  4. Towards The Long-Term Preservation of Building Information Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beetz, Jacob; Dietze, Stefan; Berndt, René

    2013-01-01

    , no existing approach is able to provide a secure and efficient long-term preservation solution covering the broad spectrum of 3D architectural data, while at the same time taking into account the demands of institutional collectors like architecture libraries and archives as well as those of the private...... ICT-2011-9 project “DURAARK - Durable Architectural Knowledge” is presented. Initial preliminary results of the interdisciplinary working groups within this project ranging from the ingest and storage of voluminous sets of low-level point-cloud data from laser scans to semantically consistent...

  5. Conservation of concrete structures according to fib Model Code 2010

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matthews, S.; Bigaj-Van Vliet, A.; Ueda, T.

    2013-01-01

    Conservation of concrete structures forms an essential part of the fib Model Code for Concrete Structures 2010 (fib Model Code 2010). In particular, Chapter 9 of fib Model Code 2010 addresses issues concerning conservation strategies and tactics, conservation management, condition surveys, condition

  6. Modeling the Structure and Complexity of Engineering Routine Design Problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jauregui Becker, Juan Manuel; Wits, Wessel Willems; van Houten, Frederikus J.A.M.

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a model to structure routine design problems as well as a model of its design complexity. The idea is that having a proper model of the structure of such problems enables understanding its complexity, and likewise, a proper understanding of its complexity enables the development

  7. Stability and the structure of continuous-time economic models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nieuwenhuis, H.J.; Schoonbeek, L.

    In this paper we investigate the relationship between the stability of macroeconomic, or macroeconometric, continuous-time models and the structure of the matrices appearing in these models. In particular, we concentrate on dominant-diagonal structures. We derive general stability results for models

  8. Integrated corporate structure life cycle management modeling and organization

    OpenAIRE

    Naumenko, M.; Morozova, L.

    2011-01-01

    Integrated business structure presented as complementary pool of its participants skills. The methodical approach to integrated business structure life cycle modeling proposed. Recommendations of enterprises life cycles stages correlate are submitted.

  9. Solutions of several coupled discrete models in terms of Lamé ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The models discussed are: coupled Salerno model,; coupled Ablowitz–Ladik model,; coupled 4 model and; coupled 6 model. In all these cases we show that the coefficients of the Lamé polynomials are such that the Lamé polynomials can be re-expressed in terms of Chebyshev polynomials of the relevant Jacobi elliptic ...

  10. Quantifying and modeling soil structure dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Characterization of soil structure has been a topic of scientific discussions ever since soil structure has been recognized as an important factor affecting soil physical, mechanical, chemical, and biological processes. Beyond semi-quantitative soil morphology classes, it is a challenge to describe ...

  11. Assessment of structural model and parameter uncertainty with a multi-model system for soil water balance models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalik, Thomas; Multsch, Sebastian; Frede, Hans-Georg; Breuer, Lutz

    2016-04-01

    Water for agriculture is strongly limited in arid and semi-arid regions and often of low quality in terms of salinity. The application of saline waters for irrigation increases the salt load in the rooting zone and has to be managed by leaching to maintain a healthy soil, i.e. to wash out salts by additional irrigation. Dynamic simulation models are helpful tools to calculate the root zone water fluxes and soil salinity content in order to investigate best management practices. However, there is little information on structural and parameter uncertainty for simulations regarding the water and salt balance of saline irrigation. Hence, we established a multi-model system with four different models (AquaCrop, RZWQM, SWAP, Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM) to analyze the structural and parameter uncertainty by using the Global Likelihood and Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM and SWAP were set up with multiple sets of different implemented functions (e.g. matric and osmotic stress for root water uptake) which results in a broad range of different model structures. The simulations were evaluated against soil water and salinity content observations. The posterior distribution of the GLUE analysis gives behavioral parameters sets and reveals uncertainty intervals for parameter uncertainty. Throughout all of the model sets, most parameters accounting for the soil water balance show a low uncertainty, only one or two out of five to six parameters in each model set displays a high uncertainty (e.g. pore-size distribution index in SWAP and Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM). The differences between the models and model setups reveal the structural uncertainty. The highest structural uncertainty is observed for deep percolation fluxes between the model sets of Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM (~200 mm) and RZWQM (~500 mm) that are more than twice as high for the latter. The model sets show a high variation in uncertainty intervals for deep percolation as well, with an interquartile range (IQR) of

  12. Correlation structures in short-term variabilities of stock indices and exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Tomomichi; Small, Michael

    2007-09-01

    Financial data usually show irregular fluctuations and some trends. We investigate whether there are correlation structures in short-term variabilities (irregular fluctuations) among financial data from the viewpoint of deterministic dynamical systems. Our method is based on the small-shuffle surrogate method. The data we use are daily closing price of Standard & Poor's 500 and the volume, and daily foreign exchange rates, Euro/US Dollar (USD), British Pound/USD and Japanese Yen/USD. We found that these data are not independent.

  13. The Term Structure of Interest Rates and its Impact on the Liability Adequacy Test for Insurance Companies in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Aurelio Duarte

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The Brazilian regulation for applying the Liability Adequacy Test (LAT to technical provisions in insurance companies requires that the current estimate is discounted by a term structure of interest rates (hereafter TSIR. This article aims to analyze the LAT results, derived from the use of various models to build the TSIR: the cubic spline interpolation technique, Svensson's model (adopted by the regulator and Vasicek's model. In order to achieve the objective proposed, the exchange rates of BM&FBOVESPA trading days were used to model the ETTJ and, consequently, to discount the cash flow of the insurance company. The results indicate that: (i LAT is sensitive to the choice of the model used to build the TSIR; (ii this sensitivity increases with cash flow longevity; (iii the adoption of an ultimate forward rate (UFR for the Brazilian insurance market should be evaluated by the regulator, in order to stabilize the trajectory of the yield curve at longer maturities. The technical provision is among the main solvency items of insurance companies and the LAT result is a significant indicator of the quality of this provision, as this evaluates its sufficiency or insufficiency. Thus, this article bridges a gap in the Brazilian actuarial literature, introducing the main methodologies available for modeling the yield curve and a practical application to analyze the impact of its choice on LAT.

  14. Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco

    2011-01-01

    The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)

  15. Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco [Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell' Innovazione, Universita del Salento, Via per Monteroni, 73100 Lecce (Italy)

    2011-04-15

    The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)

  16. Nonparametric Monitoring for Geotechnical Structures Subject to Long-Term Environmental Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hae-Bum Yun

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A nonparametric, data-driven methodology of monitoring for geotechnical structures subject to long-term environmental change is discussed. Avoiding physical assumptions or excessive simplification of the monitored structures, the nonparametric monitoring methodology presented in this paper provides reliable performance-related information particularly when the collection of sensor data is limited. For the validation of the nonparametric methodology, a field case study was performed using a full-scale retaining wall, which had been monitored for three years using three tilt gauges. Using the very limited sensor data, it is demonstrated that important performance-related information, such as drainage performance and sensor damage, could be disentangled from significant daily, seasonal and multiyear environmental variations. Extensive literature review on recent developments of parametric and nonparametric data processing techniques for geotechnical applications is also presented.

  17. Long-term monitoring of diversity and structure of two stands of an Atlantic Tropical Forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diniz, Écio Souza; Carvalho, Warley Augusto Caldas; Santos, Rubens Manoel; Gastauer, Markus; Garcia, Paulo Oswaldo; Fontes, Marco Aurélio Leite; Coelho, Polyanne Aparecida; Moreira, Aline Martins; Menino, Gisele Cristina Oliveira; Oliveira-Filho, Ary Teixeira

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to report the long-term monitoring of diversity and structure of the tree community in a protected semideciduous Atlantic Forest in the South of Minas Gerais State, Southeast Brazil. The study was conducted in two stands (B and C), each with 26 and 38 10 m x 30 m plots. Censuses of stand B were conducted in 2000, 2005 and 2011, and stand C in 2001, 2006 and 2011. In both stands, the most abundant and important species for biomass accumulation over the inventories were trees larger than 20 cm of diameter, which characterize advanced successional stage within the forest. The two surveyed stands within the studied forest presented differences in structure, diversity and species richness over the time.

  18. Market structure in the US electricity industry: a long-term perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamerschen, D.R.

    2005-01-01

    We estimate changes in market structure in the US electric power industry during the last three decades using two independent approaches. First, we estimate an industry-wide conjectural-variations parameter. We find that industry concentration was generally rising during the 1970s but has been gradually and consistently falling since the early 1980s. To check the robustness of these results, we then use a translog production function to estimate the Lerner Index. The results confirm that the industry was becoming less concentrated during the 1980s, though the Lerner Index tended to fluctuate during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Our results suggest that the current state of the electricity industry may have more to do with long-term changes in market structure than recent attempts to establish competitive wholesale electricity markets. (author)

  19. Effect of Fuel Structure Materials on Radiation Source Term in Reactor Core Meltdown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Hae Sun; Ha, Kwang Soon

    2014-01-01

    The fission product (Radiation Source) releases from the reactor core into the containment is obligatorily evaluated to guarantee the safety of Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) under the hypothetical accident involving a core meltdown. The initial core inventory is used as a starting point of all radiological consequences and effects on the subsequent results of accident assessment. Hence, a proper evaluation for the inventory can be regarded as one of the most important part over the entire procedure of accident analysis. The inventory of fission products is typically evaluated on the basis of the uranium material (e.g., UO2 and USi2) loaded in nuclear fuel assembly, except for the structure materials such as the end fittings, grids, and some kinds of springs. However, the structure materials are continually activated by the neutrons generated from the nuclear fission, and some nuclides of them (e.g., 14 C and 60 Co) can significantly influence on accident assessment. During the severe core accident, the structure components can be also melted with the melting points of temperature relatively lower than uranium material. A series of the calculation were performed by using ORIGEN-S module in SCALE 6.1 package code system. The total activity in each part of structure materials was specifically analyzed from these calculations. The fission product inventory is generally evaluated based on the uranium materials of fuel only, even though the structure components of the assembly are continually activated by the neutrons generated from the nuclear fission. In this study, the activation calculation of the fuel structure materials was performed for the initial source term assessment in the accident of reactor core meltdown. As a result, the lower end fitting and the upper plenum greatly contribute to the total activity except for the cladding material. The nuclides of 56 Mn, '5 1 Cr, 55 Fe, 58 Co, 54 Mn, and 60 Co are analyzed to mainly effect on the activity. This result

  20. Importance of modeling beam-column joints for seismic safety of reinforced concrete structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, Akanshu; Reddy, G.R.; Vaze, K.K.; Eligehausen, R.; Hofmann, J.

    2011-01-01

    Almost all structures, except the containment building, in a NPP can be classified as reinforced concrete (RC) framed structures. In case of such structures subjected to seismic loads, beam-column joints are recognized as the critical and vulnerable zone. During an earthquake, the global behavior of the structure is highly governed by the behavior of the joints. If the joints behave in a ductile manner, the global behavior generally will be ductile, whereas if the joints behave in a brittle fashion then the structure will display a brittle behavior. The joints of old and non-seismically detailed structures are more vulnerable and behave poorly under the earthquakes compared to the joints of new and seismically detailed structures. Modeling of these joint regions is very important for correct assessment of the seismic performance of the structures. In this paper, it is shown with the help of a recently developed joint model that not modeling the inelastic behavior of the joints can lead to significantly misleading and unsafe results in terms of the performance assessment of the structures under seismic loads. Comparison of analytical and experimental results is shown for two structures, tested under lateral monotonic seismic pushover loads. It is displayed that the model can predict the inelastic seismic response of structures considering joint distortion with high accuracy by little extra effort in modeling. (author)

  1. Long-term functional outcomes and correlation with regional brain connectivity by MRI diffusion tractography metrics in a near-term rabbit model of intrauterine growth restriction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miriam Illa

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR affects 5-10% of all newborns and is associated with increased risk of memory, attention and anxiety problems in late childhood and adolescence. The neurostructural correlates of long-term abnormal neurodevelopment associated with IUGR are unknown. Thus, the aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive description of the long-term functional and neurostructural correlates of abnormal neurodevelopment associated with IUGR in a near-term rabbit model (delivered at 30 days of gestation and evaluate the development of quantitative imaging biomarkers of abnormal neurodevelopment based on diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI parameters and connectivity. METHODOLOGY: At +70 postnatal days, 10 cases and 11 controls were functionally evaluated with the Open Field Behavioral Test which evaluates anxiety and attention and the Object Recognition Task that evaluates short-term memory and attention. Subsequently, brains were collected, fixed and a high resolution MRI was performed. Differences in diffusion parameters were analyzed by means of voxel-based and connectivity analysis measuring the number of fibers reconstructed within anxiety, attention and short-term memory networks over the total fibers. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The results of the neurobehavioral and cognitive assessment showed a significant higher degree of anxiety, attention and memory problems in cases compared to controls in most of the variables explored. Voxel-based analysis (VBA revealed significant differences between groups in multiple brain regions mainly in grey matter structures, whereas connectivity analysis demonstrated lower ratios of fibers within the networks in cases, reaching the statistical significance only in the left hemisphere for both networks. Finally, VBA and connectivity results were also correlated with functional outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The rabbit model used reproduced long-term functional impairments and their

  2. Long-term functional outcomes and correlation with regional brain connectivity by MRI diffusion tractography metrics in a near-term rabbit model of intrauterine growth restriction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illa, Miriam; Eixarch, Elisenda; Batalle, Dafnis; Arbat-Plana, Ariadna; Muñoz-Moreno, Emma; Figueras, Francesc; Gratacos, Eduard

    2013-01-01

    Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) affects 5-10% of all newborns and is associated with increased risk of memory, attention and anxiety problems in late childhood and adolescence. The neurostructural correlates of long-term abnormal neurodevelopment associated with IUGR are unknown. Thus, the aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive description of the long-term functional and neurostructural correlates of abnormal neurodevelopment associated with IUGR in a near-term rabbit model (delivered at 30 days of gestation) and evaluate the development of quantitative imaging biomarkers of abnormal neurodevelopment based on diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) parameters and connectivity. At +70 postnatal days, 10 cases and 11 controls were functionally evaluated with the Open Field Behavioral Test which evaluates anxiety and attention and the Object Recognition Task that evaluates short-term memory and attention. Subsequently, brains were collected, fixed and a high resolution MRI was performed. Differences in diffusion parameters were analyzed by means of voxel-based and connectivity analysis measuring the number of fibers reconstructed within anxiety, attention and short-term memory networks over the total fibers. The results of the neurobehavioral and cognitive assessment showed a significant higher degree of anxiety, attention and memory problems in cases compared to controls in most of the variables explored. Voxel-based analysis (VBA) revealed significant differences between groups in multiple brain regions mainly in grey matter structures, whereas connectivity analysis demonstrated lower ratios of fibers within the networks in cases, reaching the statistical significance only in the left hemisphere for both networks. Finally, VBA and connectivity results were also correlated with functional outcome. The rabbit model used reproduced long-term functional impairments and their neurostructural correlates of abnormal neurodevelopment associated with IUGR

  3. Long-Term Functional Outcomes and Correlation with Regional Brain Connectivity by MRI Diffusion Tractography Metrics in a Near-Term Rabbit Model of Intrauterine Growth Restriction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illa, Miriam; Eixarch, Elisenda; Batalle, Dafnis; Arbat-Plana, Ariadna; Muñoz-Moreno, Emma; Figueras, Francesc; Gratacos, Eduard

    2013-01-01

    Background Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) affects 5–10% of all newborns and is associated with increased risk of memory, attention and anxiety problems in late childhood and adolescence. The neurostructural correlates of long-term abnormal neurodevelopment associated with IUGR are unknown. Thus, the aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive description of the long-term functional and neurostructural correlates of abnormal neurodevelopment associated with IUGR in a near-term rabbit model (delivered at 30 days of gestation) and evaluate the development of quantitative imaging biomarkers of abnormal neurodevelopment based on diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) parameters and connectivity. Methodology At +70 postnatal days, 10 cases and 11 controls were functionally evaluated with the Open Field Behavioral Test which evaluates anxiety and attention and the Object Recognition Task that evaluates short-term memory and attention. Subsequently, brains were collected, fixed and a high resolution MRI was performed. Differences in diffusion parameters were analyzed by means of voxel-based and connectivity analysis measuring the number of fibers reconstructed within anxiety, attention and short-term memory networks over the total fibers. Principal Findings The results of the neurobehavioral and cognitive assessment showed a significant higher degree of anxiety, attention and memory problems in cases compared to controls in most of the variables explored. Voxel-based analysis (VBA) revealed significant differences between groups in multiple brain regions mainly in grey matter structures, whereas connectivity analysis demonstrated lower ratios of fibers within the networks in cases, reaching the statistical significance only in the left hemisphere for both networks. Finally, VBA and connectivity results were also correlated with functional outcome. Conclusions The rabbit model used reproduced long-term functional impairments and their neurostructural

  4. Effects of long-term fertilization on soil humic acid composition and structure in Black Soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jiuming; Wang, Jingkuan; An, Tingting; Wei, Dan; Chi, Fengqin; Zhou, Baoku

    2017-01-01

    The composition and structure of humic acid (HA) can be affected by fertilization, but the short-term effects are difficult to detect using traditional analysis methods. Using a 35-year long-term experiment in Black Soil, the molecular structure of HA was analyzed with Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), 13C nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (NMR), and fluorescence spectroscopy. Variation in HA was analyzed after long-term fertilization, including fertilization with manure (M), inorganic N, P and K fertilizer (NPK), manure combined with inorganic N, P, and K fertilizer (MNPK), and a no-fertilizer control (CK). The application of each fertilizer treatment increased crop yields compared with the CK treatment, and the MNPK treatment increased crop yield the most. The ratio of main IR absorption peak of HA at 2,920 cm-1 compared with the peak at 2,850 cm-1 (2920/2850) was higher in the NPK and MNPK treatments compared with the CK treatment. The application of manure (MNPK and M treatments) increased the ratio of hydrogen to carbon (H/C) in HA, and raised the ratio of the main IR absorption peak of HA at 2920 cm-1 to that at 1720 cm-1 (2920/1720). Manure treatments also raised the ratio of aliphatic carbon (C) to aromatic C, alkyl C to alkoxy C and hydrophobic C to hydrophilic C and the fluorescence index (f 450/500), but decreased the degree of aromatization of HA, when compared with the CK treatment. The ratio between each type of C in HA was similar among all the fertilizer treatments, but NPK had a lower ratio of H/C and a lower content of aliphatic C compared with the CK treatment. These results indicated that the molecular structure of HA in Black Soil tends to be aliphatic, simpler, and younger after the application of manure. While the application of inorganic fertilizers increased in the degree of condensation of HA and made HA structure complicated. The application of manure alone or combined with inorganic fertilizers may be an effective way

  5. Effects of long-term fertilization on soil humic acid composition and structure in Black Soil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiuming Zhang

    Full Text Available The composition and structure of humic acid (HA can be affected by fertilization, but the short-term effects are difficult to detect using traditional analysis methods. Using a 35-year long-term experiment in Black Soil, the molecular structure of HA was analyzed with Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR, 13C nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (NMR, and fluorescence spectroscopy. Variation in HA was analyzed after long-term fertilization, including fertilization with manure (M, inorganic N, P and K fertilizer (NPK, manure combined with inorganic N, P, and K fertilizer (MNPK, and a no-fertilizer control (CK. The application of each fertilizer treatment increased crop yields compared with the CK treatment, and the MNPK treatment increased crop yield the most. The ratio of main IR absorption peak of HA at 2,920 cm-1 compared with the peak at 2,850 cm-1 (2920/2850 was higher in the NPK and MNPK treatments compared with the CK treatment. The application of manure (MNPK and M treatments increased the ratio of hydrogen to carbon (H/C in HA, and raised the ratio of the main IR absorption peak of HA at 2920 cm-1 to that at 1720 cm-1 (2920/1720. Manure treatments also raised the ratio of aliphatic carbon (C to aromatic C, alkyl C to alkoxy C and hydrophobic C to hydrophilic C and the fluorescence index (f 450/500, but decreased the degree of aromatization of HA, when compared with the CK treatment. The ratio between each type of C in HA was similar among all the fertilizer treatments, but NPK had a lower ratio of H/C and a lower content of aliphatic C compared with the CK treatment. These results indicated that the molecular structure of HA in Black Soil tends to be aliphatic, simpler, and younger after the application of manure. While the application of inorganic fertilizers increased in the degree of condensation of HA and made HA structure complicated. The application of manure alone or combined with inorganic fertilizers may be an

  6. Risk Modeling Approaches in Terms of Volatility Banking Transactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelica Cucşa (Stratulat

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The inseparability of risk and banking activity is one demonstrated ever since banking systems, the importance of the topic being presend in current life and future equally in the development of banking sector. Banking sector development is done in the context of the constraints of nature and number of existing risks and those that may arise, and serves as limiting the risk of banking activity. We intend to develop approaches to analyse risk through mathematical models by also developing a model for the Romanian capital market 10 active trading picks that will test investor reaction in controlled and uncontrolled conditions of risk aggregated with harmonised factors.

  7. Latent Growth and Dynamic Structural Equation Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Kevin J; Ram, Nilam

    2018-05-07

    Latent growth models make up a class of methods to study within-person change-how it progresses, how it differs across individuals, what are its determinants, and what are its consequences. Latent growth methods have been applied in many domains to examine average and differential responses to interventions and treatments. In this review, we introduce the growth modeling approach to studying change by presenting different models of change and interpretations of their model parameters. We then apply these methods to examining sex differences in the development of binge drinking behavior through adolescence and into adulthood. Advances in growth modeling methods are then discussed and include inherently nonlinear growth models, derivative specification of growth models, and latent change score models to study stochastic change processes. We conclude with relevant design issues of longitudinal studies and considerations for the analysis of longitudinal data.

  8. A spatial structural derivative model for ultraslow diffusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Wei

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the ultraslow diffusion by a spatial structural derivative, in which the exponential function ex is selected as the structural function to construct the local structural derivative diffusion equation model. The analytical solution of the diffusion equation is a form of Biexponential distribution. Its corresponding mean squared displacement is numerically calculated, and increases more slowly than the logarithmic function of time. The local structural derivative diffusion equation with the structural function ex in space is an alternative physical and mathematical modeling model to characterize a kind of ultraslow diffusion.

  9. EDM - A model for optimising the short-term power operation of a complex hydroelectric network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tremblay, M.; Guillaud, C.

    1996-01-01

    In order to optimize the short-term power operation of a complex hydroelectric network, a new model called EDM was added to PROSPER, a water management analysis system developed by SNC-Lavalin. PROSPER is now divided into three parts: an optimization model (DDDP), a simulation model (ESOLIN), and an economic dispatch model (EDM) for the short-term operation. The operation of the KSEB hydroelectric system (located in southern India) with PROSPER was described. The long-term analysis with monthly time steps is assisted by the DDDP, and the daily analysis with hourly or half-hourly time steps is performed with the EDM model. 3 figs

  10. Structural strength assessment of the reconstructed road structure in terms of the loading time and yield criterion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazurek, Grzegorz; Iwański, Marek

    2018-05-01

    This article reports the results of numerical simulations of the stress-strain states in the rebuilt road structure compared to the solutions contained in the Polish Catalogue, with the true characteristics of the layer materials taken into account. In the case analysed, a cold-recycled base layer with foamed bitumen as a recycling agent was used. The presented analysis is complementary to the mandatory in Poland procedure of mechanistic pavement design based on a linear elastic model. The temperature distribution in the road structure was analysed at the reference temperature of 40°C on the asphalt layer surface. The loading time was included in the computer simulations through the use of the classic generalized Maxwell model and thus the stiffness-time history of the layers had to be determined. For this purpose, the dynamic modulus E* tests of the loading time frequency from 0.1 Hz to 20 Hz were carried out, and the yield point was modelled using the Coulomb-Mohr failure criterion calculated on the basis of triaxial compression tests. The analytical solution to the problem was found with ABAQUS. The results demonstrate that the high temperature of asphalt layers and long loading time noticeably reduces the stiffness modulus in those layers. That reduction changes the principal stress levels, which significantly influences the shear stress both in the recycled base layer and in the subgrade soil. Should the yield point be exceeded rapidly in the recycled layer, the horizontal stresses in the asphalt layers will increase and adversely affect the durability of the reconstructed road pavement structure, especially in the zones of slow heavy vehicle traffic.

  11. EQUIVALENT MODELS IN COVARIANCE STRUCTURE-ANALYSIS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    LUIJBEN, TCW

    1991-01-01

    Defining equivalent models as those that reproduce the same set of covariance matrices, necessary and sufficient conditions are stated for the local equivalence of two expanded identified models M1 and M2 when fitting the more restricted model M0. Assuming several regularity conditions, the rank

  12. Random-Effects Models for Meta-Analytic Structural Equation Modeling: Review, Issues, and Illustrations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Mike W.-L.; Cheung, Shu Fai

    2016-01-01

    Meta-analytic structural equation modeling (MASEM) combines the techniques of meta-analysis and structural equation modeling for the purpose of synthesizing correlation or covariance matrices and fitting structural equation models on the pooled correlation or covariance matrix. Both fixed-effects and random-effects models can be defined in MASEM.…

  13. A simulation model for analysing brain structure deformations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bona, Sergio Di [Institute for Information Science and Technologies, Italian National Research Council (ISTI-8211-CNR), Via G Moruzzi, 1-56124 Pisa (Italy); Lutzemberger, Ludovico [Department of Neuroscience, Institute of Neurosurgery, University of Pisa, Via Roma, 67-56100 Pisa (Italy); Salvetti, Ovidio [Institute for Information Science and Technologies, Italian National Research Council (ISTI-8211-CNR), Via G Moruzzi, 1-56124 Pisa (Italy)

    2003-12-21

    Recent developments of medical software applications from the simulation to the planning of surgical operations have revealed the need for modelling human tissues and organs, not only from a geometric point of view but also from a physical one, i.e. soft tissues, rigid body, viscoelasticity, etc. This has given rise to the term 'deformable objects', which refers to objects with a morphology, a physical and a mechanical behaviour of their own and that reflects their natural properties. In this paper, we propose a model, based upon physical laws, suitable for the realistic manipulation of geometric reconstructions of volumetric data taken from MR and CT scans. In particular, a physically based model of the brain is presented that is able to simulate the evolution of different nature pathological intra-cranial phenomena such as haemorrhages, neoplasm, haematoma, etc and to describe the consequences that are caused by their volume expansions and the influences they have on the anatomical and neuro-functional structures of the brain.

  14. Long‐Term Post‐CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Brendan M.; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C.; Zhu, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Background/aim Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short‐term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long‐term mortality. The added value of long‐term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long‐term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Methods Long‐term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c‐index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Results Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one‐, three‐, and five years, respectively (median follow‐up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long‐term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Conclusions Long‐term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long‐term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher‐risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow‐up care. More research appears warranted to refine long‐term CABG clinical risk models. doi: 10.1111/jocs.12665 (J Card Surg 2016;31:23–30) PMID:26543019

  15. Combinatorial structures to modeling simple games and applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molinero, Xavier

    2017-09-01

    We connect three different topics: combinatorial structures, game theory and chemistry. In particular, we establish the bases to represent some simple games, defined as influence games, and molecules, defined from atoms, by using combinatorial structures. First, we characterize simple games as influence games using influence graphs. It let us to modeling simple games as combinatorial structures (from the viewpoint of structures or graphs). Second, we formally define molecules as combinations of atoms. It let us to modeling molecules as combinatorial structures (from the viewpoint of combinations). It is open to generate such combinatorial structures using some specific techniques as genetic algorithms, (meta-)heuristics algorithms and parallel programming, among others.

  16. Accurate protein structure modeling using sparse NMR data and homologous structure information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, James M; Sgourakis, Nikolaos G; Liu, Gaohua; Rossi, Paolo; Tang, Yuefeng; Mills, Jeffrey L; Szyperski, Thomas; Montelione, Gaetano T; Baker, David

    2012-06-19

    While information from homologous structures plays a central role in X-ray structure determination by molecular replacement, such information is rarely used in NMR structure determination because it can be incorrect, both locally and globally, when evolutionary relationships are inferred incorrectly or there has been considerable evolutionary structural divergence. Here we describe a method that allows robust modeling of protein structures of up to 225 residues by combining (1)H(N), (13)C, and (15)N backbone and (13)Cβ chemical shift data, distance restraints derived from homologous structures, and a physically realistic all-atom energy function. Accurate models are distinguished from inaccurate models generated using incorrect sequence alignments by requiring that (i) the all-atom energies of models generated using the restraints are lower than models generated in unrestrained calculations and (ii) the low-energy structures converge to within 2.0 Å backbone rmsd over 75% of the protein. Benchmark calculations on known structures and blind targets show that the method can accurately model protein structures, even with very remote homology information, to a backbone rmsd of 1.2-1.9 Å relative to the conventional determined NMR ensembles and of 0.9-1.6 Å relative to X-ray structures for well-defined regions of the protein structures. This approach facilitates the accurate modeling of protein structures using backbone chemical shift data without need for side-chain resonance assignments and extensive analysis of NOESY cross-peak assignments.

  17. Predictive modeling of pedestal structure in KSTAR using EPED model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Hyunsun; Kim, J. Y. [National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon 305-806 (Korea, Republic of); Kwon, Ohjin [Department of Physics, Daegu University, Gyeongbuk 712-714 (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    A predictive calculation is given for the structure of edge pedestal in the H-mode plasma of the KSTAR (Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research) device using the EPED model. Particularly, the dependence of pedestal width and height on various plasma parameters is studied in detail. The two codes, ELITE and HELENA, are utilized for the stability analysis of the peeling-ballooning and kinetic ballooning modes, respectively. Summarizing the main results, the pedestal slope and height have a strong dependence on plasma current, rapidly increasing with it, while the pedestal width is almost independent of it. The plasma density or collisionality gives initially a mild stabilization, increasing the pedestal slope and height, but above some threshold value its effect turns to a destabilization, reducing the pedestal width and height. Among several plasma shape parameters, the triangularity gives the most dominant effect, rapidly increasing the pedestal width and height, while the effect of elongation and squareness appears to be relatively weak. Implication of these edge results, particularly in relation to the global plasma performance, is discussed.

  18. Variable Fidelity Aeroelastic Toolkit - Structural Model, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed innovation is a methodology to incorporate variable fidelity structural models into steady and unsteady aeroelastic and aeroservoelastic analyses in...

  19. Port pricing : principles, structure and models

    OpenAIRE

    Meersman, Hilde; Strandenes, Siri Pettersen; Van de Voorde, Eddy

    2014-01-01

    Price level and price transparency are input to shippers’ choice of supply chain and transport mode. In this paper, we analyse current port pricing structures in the light of the pricing literature and consider opportunities for improvement. We present a detailed overview of pricing criteria, who sets prices and who ultimately foots the bill for port-of-call charges, cargo-handling fees and congestion charges. Current port pricing practice is based on a rather linear structure and fails to in...

  20. Structured inverse modeling in parabolic diffusion processess

    OpenAIRE

    Schulz, Volker; Siebenborn, Martin; Welker, Kathrin

    2014-01-01

    Often, the unknown diffusivity in diffusive processes is structured by piecewise constant patches. This paper is devoted to efficient methods for the determination of such structured diffusion parameters by exploiting shape calculus. A novel shape gradient is derived in parabolic processes. Furthermore quasi-Newton techniques are used in order to accelerate shape gradient based iterations in shape space. Numerical investigations support the theoretical results.

  1. Structured Spatio-temporal shot-noise Cox point process models, with a view to modelling forest fires

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Diaz-Avalos, Carlos

    2010-01-01

    Spatio-temporal Cox point process models with a multiplicative structure for the driving random intensity, incorporating covariate information into temporal and spatial components, and with a residual term modelled by a shot-noise process, are considered. Such models are flexible and tractable fo...... data set consisting of 2796 days and 5834 spatial locations of fires. The model is compared with a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox point process model, and likelihood-based methods are discussed to some extent....

  2. Generalized structured component analysis a component-based approach to structural equation modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Hwang, Heungsun

    2014-01-01

    Winner of the 2015 Sugiyama Meiko Award (Publication Award) of the Behaviormetric Society of Japan Developed by the authors, generalized structured component analysis is an alternative to two longstanding approaches to structural equation modeling: covariance structure analysis and partial least squares path modeling. Generalized structured component analysis allows researchers to evaluate the adequacy of a model as a whole, compare a model to alternative specifications, and conduct complex analyses in a straightforward manner. Generalized Structured Component Analysis: A Component-Based Approach to Structural Equation Modeling provides a detailed account of this novel statistical methodology and its various extensions. The authors present the theoretical underpinnings of generalized structured component analysis and demonstrate how it can be applied to various empirical examples. The book enables quantitative methodologists, applied researchers, and practitioners to grasp the basic concepts behind this new a...

  3. The Effect of Classroom Structure on Verbal and Physical Aggression among Peers: A Short-Term Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergsmann, Evelyn M.; Van De Schoot, Rens; Schober, Barbara; Finsterwald, Monika; Spiel, Christiane

    2013-01-01

    Teachers promote student learning and well-being in school by establishing a supportive classroom structure. The term "classroom structure" refers to how teachers design tasks, maintain authority, and evaluate student achievement. Although empirical studies have shown the relation of classroom structure to student motivation, achievement, and…

  4. Long-term effects of prescribed fire on mixed conifer forest structure in the Sierra Nevada, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillip J. Van Mantgem; Nathan L. Stephenson; Eric Knapp; John Barrles; Jon E. Keeley

    2011-01-01

    The capacity of prescribed fire to restore forest conditions is often judged by changes in forest structure within a few years following burning. However, prescribed fire might have longer-term effects on forest structure, potentially changing treatment assessments. We examined annual changes in forest structure in five 1 ha old-growth plots immediately before...

  5. Using structural equation modeling to investigate relationships among ecological variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malaeb, Z.A.; Kevin, Summers J.; Pugesek, B.H.

    2000-01-01

    Structural equation modeling is an advanced multivariate statistical process with which a researcher can construct theoretical concepts, test their measurement reliability, hypothesize and test a theory about their relationships, take into account measurement errors, and consider both direct and indirect effects of variables on one another. Latent variables are theoretical concepts that unite phenomena under a single term, e.g., ecosystem health, environmental condition, and pollution (Bollen, 1989). Latent variables are not measured directly but can be expressed in terms of one or more directly measurable variables called indicators. For some researchers, defining, constructing, and examining the validity of latent variables may be the end task of itself. For others, testing hypothesized relationships of latent variables may be of interest. We analyzed the correlation matrix of eleven environmental variables from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program for Estuaries (EMAP-E) using methods of structural equation modeling. We hypothesized and tested a conceptual model to characterize the interdependencies between four latent variables-sediment contamination, natural variability, biodiversity, and growth potential. In particular, we were interested in measuring the direct, indirect, and total effects of sediment contamination and natural variability on biodiversity and growth potential. The model fit the data well and accounted for 81% of the variability in biodiversity and 69% of the variability in growth potential. It revealed a positive total effect of natural variability on growth potential that otherwise would have been judged negative had we not considered indirect effects. That is, natural variability had a negative direct effect on growth potential of magnitude -0.3251 and a positive indirect effect mediated through biodiversity of magnitude 0.4509, yielding a net positive total effect of 0

  6. Structural Adjustment Policy Experiments: The Use of Philippine CGE Models

    OpenAIRE

    Cororaton, Caesar B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper reviews the general structure of the following general computable general equilibrium (CGE): the APEX model, Habito’s second version of the PhilCGE model, Cororaton’s CGE model and Bautista’s first CGE model. These models are chosen as they represent the range of recently constructed CGE models of the Philippine economy. They also represent two schools of thought in CGE modeling: the well defined neoclassical, Walrasian, general equilibrium school where the market-clearing variable...

  7. Two-part pricing structure in long-term gas sales contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slocum, J.C.; Lee, S.Y.

    1992-01-01

    Although the incremental electricity generation market has the potential to be a major growth area for natural gas demand in the U.S., it may never live up to such promise unless gas suppliers are more willing to enter into long-term gas sales agreements necessary to nurture this segment of the industry. The authors submit that producer reluctance to enter into such long-term sales agreements can be traced, at least in part to the differing contract price requirements between gas producers and buyers. This paper will address an evolving solution to this contracting dilemma - the development of a two-part pricing structure for the gas commodity. A two-part pricing structure includes a usage or throughput charge established in a way to yield a marginal gas cost competitive with electric utility avoided costs, and a reservation charge established to guarantee a minimum cash flow to the producer. Moreover, the combined effect of the two charges may yield total revenues that better reflect the producer's replacement cost of the reserves committed under the contract. 2 tabs

  8. Embedding Term Similarity and Inverse Document Frequency into a Logical Model of Information Retrieval.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Losada, David E.; Barreiro, Alvaro

    2003-01-01

    Proposes an approach to incorporate term similarity and inverse document frequency into a logical model of information retrieval. Highlights include document representation and matching; incorporating term similarity into the measure of distance; new algorithms for implementation; inverse document frequency; and logical versus classical models of…

  9. Formulation of probabilistic models of protein structure in atomic detail using the reference ratio method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentin, Jan B; Andreetta, Christian; Boomsma, Wouter; Bottaro, Sandro; Ferkinghoff-Borg, Jesper; Frellsen, Jes; Mardia, Kanti V; Tian, Pengfei; Hamelryck, Thomas

    2014-02-01

    We propose a method to formulate probabilistic models of protein structure in atomic detail, for a given amino acid sequence, based on Bayesian principles, while retaining a close link to physics. We start from two previously developed probabilistic models of protein structure on a local length scale, which concern the dihedral angles in main chain and side chains, respectively. Conceptually, this constitutes a probabilistic and continuous alternative to the use of discrete fragment and rotamer libraries. The local model is combined with a nonlocal model that involves a small number of energy terms according to a physical force field, and some information on the overall secondary structure content. In this initial study we focus on the formulation of the joint model and the evaluation of the use of an energy vector as a descriptor of a protein's nonlocal structure; hence, we derive the parameters of the nonlocal model from the native structure without loss of generality. The local and nonlocal models are combined using the reference ratio method, which is a well-justified probabilistic construction. For evaluation, we use the resulting joint models to predict the structure of four proteins. The results indicate that the proposed method and the probabilistic models show considerable promise for probabilistic protein structure prediction and related applications. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Conceptual model for deriving the repository source term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, D.H.; Apted, M.J.; Liebetrau, A.M.; Van Luik, A.E.; Williford, R.E.; Doctor, P.G.; Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA; Roy F. Weston, Inc./Rogers and Assoc. Engineering Corp., Rockville, MD)

    1984-01-01

    Part of a strategy for evaluating the compliance of geologic repositories with Federal regulations is a modeling approach that would provide realistic release estimates for a particular configuration of the engineered-barrier system. The objective is to avoid worst-case bounding assumptions that are physically impossible or excessively conservative and to obtain probabilitistic estimates of (1) the penetration time for metal barriers and (2) radionuclide-release rates for individually simulated waste packages after penetration has occurred. The conceptual model described in this paper will assume that release rates are explicitly related to such time-dependent processes as mass transfer, dissolution and precipitation, radionuclide decay, and variations in the geochemical environment. The conceptual model will take into account the reduction in the rates of waste-form dissolution and metal corrosion due to a buildup of chemical reaction products. The sorptive properties of the metal-barrier corrosion products in proximity to the waste form surface will also be included. Cumulative released from the engineered-barrier system will be calculated by summing the releases from a probabilistically generated population of individual waste packages. 14 refs., 7 figs

  11. Conceptual model for deriving the repository source term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, D.H.; Apted, M.J.; Liebetrau, A.M.; Doctor, P.G.; Williford, R.E.; Van Luik, A.E.

    1984-11-01

    Part of a strategy for evaluating the compliance of geologic repositories with federal regulations is a modeling approach that would provide realistic release estimates for a particular configuration of the engineered-barrier system. The objective is to avoid worst-case bounding assumptions that are physically impossible or excessively conservative and to obtain probabilistic estimates of (1) the penetration time for metal barriers and (2) radionuclide-release rates for individually simulated waste packages after penetration has occurred. The conceptual model described in this paper will assume that release rates are explicitly related to such time-dependent processes as mass transfer, dissolution and precipitation, radionuclide decay, and variations in the geochemical environment. The conceptual model will take into account the reduction in the rates of waste-form dissolution and metal corrosion due to a buildup of chemical reaction products. The sorptive properties of the metal-barrier corrosion products in proximity to the waste form surface will also be included. Cumulative releases from the engineered-barrier system will be calculated by summing the releases from a probabilistically generated population of individual waste packages. 14 refs., 7 figs

  12. A Probabilistic Palimpsest Model of Visual Short-term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthey, Loic; Bays, Paul M.; Dayan, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Working memory plays a key role in cognition, and yet its mechanisms remain much debated. Human performance on memory tasks is severely limited; however, the two major classes of theory explaining the limits leave open questions about key issues such as how multiple simultaneously-represented items can be distinguished. We propose a palimpsest model, with the occurrent activity of a single population of neurons coding for several multi-featured items. Using a probabilistic approach to storage and recall, we show how this model can account for many qualitative aspects of existing experimental data. In our account, the underlying nature of a memory item depends entirely on the characteristics of the population representation, and we provide analytical and numerical insights into critical issues such as multiplicity and binding. We consider representations in which information about individual feature values is partially separate from the information about binding that creates single items out of multiple features. An appropriate balance between these two types of information is required to capture fully the different types of error seen in human experimental data. Our model provides the first principled account of misbinding errors. We also suggest a specific set of stimuli designed to elucidate the representations that subjects actually employ. PMID:25611204

  13. Toward Accessing Spatial Structure from Building Information Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, C.; Bhatt, M.

    2011-08-01

    Data about building designs and layouts is becoming increasingly more readily available. In the near future, service personal (such as maintenance staff or emergency rescue workers) arriving at a building site will have immediate real-time access to enormous amounts of data relating to structural properties, utilities, materials, temperature, and so on. The critical problem for users is the taxing and error prone task of interpreting such a large body of facts in order to extract salient information. This is necessary for comprehending a situation and deciding on a plan of action, and is a particularly serious issue in time-critical and safety-critical activities such as firefighting. Current unifying building models such as the Industry Foundation Classes (IFC), while being comprehensive, do not directly provide data structures that focus on spatial reasoning and spatial modalities that are required for high-level analytical tasks. The aim of the research presented in this paper is to provide computational tools for higher level querying and reasoning that shift the cognitive burden of dealing with enormous amounts of data away from the user. The user can then spend more energy and time in planning and decision making in order to accomplish the tasks at hand. We present an overview of our framework that provides users with an enhanced model of "built-up space". In order to test our approach using realistic design data (in terms of both scale and the nature of the building models) we describe how our system interfaces with IFC, and we conduct timing experiments to determine the practicality of our approach. We discuss general computational approaches for deriving higher-level spatial modalities by focusing on the example of route graphs. Finally, we present a firefighting scenario with alternative route graphs to motivate the application of our framework.

  14. An elastic-plastic contact model for line contact structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Haibin; Zhao, Yingtao; He, Zhifeng; Zhang, Ruinan; Ma, Shaopeng

    2018-06-01

    Although numerical simulation tools are now very powerful, the development of analytical models is very important for the prediction of the mechanical behaviour of line contact structures for deeply understanding contact problems and engineering applications. For the line contact structures widely used in the engineering field, few analytical models are available for predicting the mechanical behaviour when the structures deform plastically, as the classic Hertz's theory would be invalid. Thus, the present study proposed an elastic-plastic model for line contact structures based on the understanding of the yield mechanism. A mathematical expression describing the global relationship between load history and contact width evolution of line contact structures was obtained. The proposed model was verified through an actual line contact test and a corresponding numerical simulation. The results confirmed that this model can be used to accurately predict the elastic-plastic mechanical behaviour of a line contact structure.

  15. Modeling Delamination of Interfacial Corner Cracks in Multilayered Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veluri, Badrinath (Badri); Jensen, Henrik Myhre

    2013-01-01

    Multilayered electronic components, typically of heterogeneous materials, delaminate under thermal and mechanical loading. A phenomenological model focused on modeling the shape of such interface cracks close to corners in layered interconnect structures for calculating the critical stress...

  16. The Structured Intuitive Model for Product Line Economics (SIMPLE)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Clements, Paul C; McGregor, John D; Cohen, Sholom G

    2005-01-01

    .... This report presents the Structured Intuitive Model of Product Line Economics (SIMPLE), a general-purpose business model that supports the estimation of the costs and benefits in a product line development organization...

  17. Configurational Model for Conductivity of Stabilized Fluorite Structure Oxides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Finn Willy

    1981-01-01

    The formalism developed here furnishes means by which ionic configurations, solid solution limits, and conductivity mechanisms in doped fluorite structures can be described. The present model differs markedly from previous models but reproduces qualitatively reality. The analysis reported...

  18. Eliminating cubic terms in the pseudopotential lattice Boltzmann model for multiphase flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Rongzong; Wu, Huiying; Adams, Nikolaus A.

    2018-05-01

    It is well recognized that there exist additional cubic terms of velocity in the lattice Boltzmann (LB) model based on the standard lattice. In this work, elimination of these cubic terms in the pseudopotential LB model for multiphase flow is investigated, where the force term and density gradient are considered. By retaining high-order (≥3 ) Hermite terms in the equilibrium distribution function and the discrete force term, as well as introducing correction terms in the LB equation, the additional cubic terms of velocity are entirely eliminated. With this technique, the computational simplicity of the pseudopotential LB model is well maintained. Numerical tests, including stationary and moving flat and circular interface problems, are carried out to show the effects of such cubic terms on the simulation of multiphase flow. It is found that the elimination of additional cubic terms is beneficial to reduce the numerical error, especially when the velocity is relatively large. Numerical results also suggest that these cubic terms mainly take effect in the interfacial region and that the density-gradient-related cubic terms are more important than the other cubic terms for multiphase flow.

  19. Source Term Characterization for Structural Components in 17 x 17 KOFA Spent Fuel Assembly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, Dong Keun; Kook, Dong Hak; Choi, Heui Joo; Choi, Jong Won [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-12-15

    Source terms of metal waste comprising a spent fuel assembly are relatively important when the spent fuel is pyroprocessed, because cesium, strontium, and transuranics are not a concern any more in the aspect of source term of permanent disposal. In this study, characteristics of radiation source terms for each structural component in spent fuel assembly was analyzed by using ORIGEN-S with a assumption that 10 metric tons of uranium is pyroprocessed. At first, mass and volume for each structural component of the fuel assembly were calculated in detail. Activation cross section library was generated by using KENO-VI/ORIGEN-S module for top-end piece and bottom-end piece, because those are located at outer core with different neutron spectrum compared to that of inner core. As a result, values of radioactivity, decay heat, and hazard index were reveled to be 1.40 x 10{sup 15} Bequerels, 236 Watts, 4.34 x 10{sup 9} m{sup 3}-water, respectively, at 10 years after discharge. Those values correspond to 0.7 %, 1.1 %, 0.1 %, respectively, compared to that of spent fuel. Inconel 718 grid plate was shown to be the most important component in the all aspects of radioactivity, decay heat, and hazard index although the mass occupies only 1 % of the total. It was also shown that if the Inconel 718 grid plate is managed separately, the radioactivity and hazard index of metal waste could be decreased to 20 {approx} 45 % and 30 {approx} 45 %, respectively. As a whole, decay heat of metal waste was shown to be negligible in the aspect of disposal system design, while the radioactivity and hazard index are important.

  20. Source Term Characteristics Analysis for Structural Components in PWR spent fuel assembly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kook, Dong Hak; Choi, Heui Joo; Cho, Dong Keun [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-12-15

    Source terms of metal waste comprising a spent fuel assembly are relatively important when the spent fuel is pyroprocessed, because cesium, strontium, and transuranics are not a concern any more in the aspect of source term of permanent disposal. In this study, characteristics of radiation source terms for each structural component in spent fuel assembly was analyzed by using ORIGEN-S with a assumption that 10 metric tons of uranium is pyroprocessed. At first, mass and volume for each structural component of the fuel assembly were calculated in detail. Activation cross section library was generated by using KENO-VI/ORIGEN-S module for top-end piece and bottom-end piece, because those are located at outer core under different neutron spectrum compared to that of inner core. As a result, values of radioactivity, decay heat, and hazard index were reveled to be 1.32x1015 Bequerels, 238 Watts, 4.32x109 m3 water, respectively, at 10 years after discharge. Those values correspond to 0.6 %, 1.1 %, 0.1 %, respectively, compared to that of spent fuel. Inconel 718 grid plate was shown to be the most important component in the all aspects of radioactivity, decay heat, and hazard index although the mass occupies only 1 % of the total. It was also shown that if the Inconel 718 grid plate is managed separately, the radioactivity and hazard index of metal waste could be decreased to 25{approx}50 % and 35{approx}40 %, respectively. As a whole, decay heat of metal waste was shown to be negligible in the aspect of disposal system design, while the radioactivity and hazard index are important